Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 11-12/2023
Al-Kahala bid farewell to her son, Fadi Bejani, with a popular funeral
Archbishop Abdel Sater: What happened is a national tragedy that must not be repeated, and we must exercise restraint and think about Lebanon first
NNA/Google Translation/ August 11, 2023
The town of Kahala bid farewell to her son, Fadi Bejjani, who died the day before yesterday in the Kawa al-Kahala accident, with a solemn funeral, as the body arrived early at St. Anthony’s Church in the town. Shweet junction going down towards Beirut, and from Bsous junction going up towards the Bekaa. The funeral and burial prayer was presided over by the Maronite Archbishop of Beirut, Bishop Paul Abdel Sater, in the presence of the deputies: Salim Aoun, Nazih Matta and Mark Daou, partisans from the “Lebanese Forces”, the Lebanese Kataeb and the “Free Patriotic Movement”, mayors, mayors, personalities, activists, and a crowd of Kahala and neighborhood residents.
Abdel Sater
After the Holy Bible, Abd al-Sater said in his sermon: “How cruel death would have been if it had not been for the resurrection of God the Son, our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, by which He conquered all death and gave us a pledge of our resurrection and eternal life in the heart of God, where there is no pain, oppression, or pain, but peace, joy, and inexhaustible love.” It never ends, and the resurrection of the Lord is the only reason that makes us, at this time, hope for the resurrection of our late brother Fadi.” He added: “How difficult life would be with its pains, sorrows, diseases, and pains, had it not been for the constant presence of the Lord Jesus in it, so that we would live with Him as we live and carry our pain, sickness, and grief away from us. This effective presence is the one that will ease the pain of separation for Fadi’s family and give them inner peace and strength to complete their life by bearing witness to the Lord’s mercy and forgiveness for every human being.” . And he continued: “We meet together at this time and in this church that Fadi loved, to accompany him in prayer as one group during his transition from this life, asking God the Father to have mercy on him and cover him with his tenderness and forgive his sins, and we hope that he will be among the people of the right.” And he added, “Fadi loved his town, Al-Kahala, until he gave himself for it, and today it is gathered around his family, young and old, to pray, console, and support. He took up the cause early and was exposed to danger time and time again. He loved his country, so he devoted himself to it, sacrificing the years of his youth and the comfort and peace of his family. He did not know comfort and stability for many years.” So that stability would be for Lebanon and security and peace for its people. He was faithful to his faith, party and leader, and he was the subject of the trust of many.” He said: “He loved his wife and children, and they loved him and were by his side until the last. They loved him by waiting for him in the dark days of war and praying for hours for his safe return to them. They loved him with their joy in him being present among them and by accompanying him in all stages of his illness day and night. May God reward you for what you did out of love for him.” He added: “What happened yesterday is a national tragedy that should never be repeated for any reason. Enough with death, grief and blackness. Enough with tears, widows and orphans. Therefore, we call on all political, party and security officials to increase efforts to achieve security for every citizen in his home and town, day and night.” And taking preventive measures that prevent resorting to arms and fighting between the people of the same people or the same region. We call on them to support and activate the judiciary so that every right holder can reach his right by the right means. And he continued, “Sedition stalks us, our people are exhausted, and war is an unbridled evil that cannot be curbed. We call on everyone to exercise restraint and think about Lebanon first. We ask every leader, leader, deputy, minister, mayor, and mayor, to work hard to prevent sectarian tension, renounce hatred, and reject regional, partisan, and religious fanaticism.” And to live together, equal in rights and duties, with dignity, in the homeland, the message, Lebanon.” And he concluded: “Lord, have mercy on our brother Fadi, and comfort the hearts of his family, his comrades, and the people of his town with the balm of your tenderness and compassion.” Then the casket was taken out and laid at the elbow of al-Kahala for some time, before being buried in the family cemetery.
garlands
Wreaths were placed at the entrance of the church, most notably from the Lebanese Forces, the Lebanese Kataeb, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Promise Party, and Bejjani’s friends and family.

Fadi Bejjani’s case: Mourning and controversy surround the Kahaleh incident
LBCI/August 11/2023
Returning to his hometown, Fadi Bejjani’s journey was marked by a sad procession as he was carried on the shoulders of his mourners. Bullets and ambulance sirens had taken him to the Church of Mar Antonius Kahaleh, a place that had been an integral part of his life, where he had fallen against its wall. The lifeless body of Fadi Bejjani was brought to the church one last time. A divine liturgy commemorated Fadi’s soul amid an atmosphere of grief and anger. The event saw the participation of locals, politicians, residents of the town, and his loved ones. Fadi Bejjani was laid to rest in the town’s cemetery. Meanwhile, his small family and the residents of Kahaleh await the conclusion of investigations into the incident that led to his tragic demise. The incident in Kahaleh is now under the jurisdiction of the military judiciary, responsible for gathering evidence from videos capturing the incident that circulated on social media platforms. This is a prelude to the testimonies of witnesses present during the moment of the shooting. No arrests have been made in connection with the incident, as the investigation is still in its early stages.

Lebanon: Hezbollah’s Weapons Met with Widening Criticism
Asharq Al Awsat/11 August 2023
Following the incident of Hezbollah’s truck, which overturned Wednesday on a mountain road near Lebanese capital, Beirut, a wave of criticism emerged, denouncing the spread of the party’s weapons and reflecting a widening rift between Hezbollah and its opponents. The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the party’s only ally outside the Shiite community, criticized the spread of illegal weapons. Hezbollah’s lorry, which was carrying ammunition, overturned in the Christian-dominated area of Kahaleh on Wednesday night. Clashes and tension erupted between the residents and Hezbollah members, leading to the death of two persons. “What happened in the town of Kahaleh is a warning alarm for the imminent danger of a decomposing state and a convulsing society,” the FPM said in a statement. Walid al-Ashqar, a member of the FPM political council, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “From the beginning, we said that the weapon is aimed at Israel, but when it is directed inward, we express our reservations about it.”Meanwhile, the head of the Kataeb party, MP Sami Gemayel denounced the incident, saying: “We are not ready to coexist with an armed militia in Lebanon.”He continued: “Lebanon is in a dangerous position, and we cannot continue in this way. We are reaching the point of no return, and the problems in all regions are interconnected, and are the result of the presence of weapons outside the framework of the state.”On Thursday, the Lebanese Army said in a statement that a load of ammunition was seized in a truck belonging to Hezbollah that overturned on Wednesday night on the Beirut-Damascus highway, in a town near Beirut. The incident sparked tension and a clash between the town’s residents and the party’s members, which resulted in two deaths, the statement added. “The ammunition load of the truck was transported to a military facility, and an investigation was initiated under the supervision of the relevant judiciary,” according to the statement. Judicial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Public Prosecution Office and the government commissioner to the Military Court were supervising the preliminary investigations.

Franjieh meets al-Rahi, says they agreed on need for calm
Naharnet/11 August 2023 
Marada Movement chief and presidential candidate Suleiman Franjieh on Friday held talks in Diman with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. “The atmosphere was more than positive and we agreed that this period is dangerous and requires calm and thinking patriotically,” Franjieh said after the talks, apparently referring to the deadly Kahale clash.

Mansouri meets with Saudi ambassador
Naharnet/11 August 2023 
Acting Central Bank Governor Wassim Mansouri on Friday held talks with Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari at the Saudi Embassy in Beirut. The talks tackled “the brotherly ties between the two brotherly countries, the latest developments in the Lebanese arena on all levels, and a number of issues of common interest,” a statement said.

Israeli army, House Democrats tour 'Hezbollah tunnels' in northern Israel
Naharnet/11 August 2023
The Israeli army has hosted a U.S. Democratic Congressional Delegation organized by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). The delegation of 24 House Democrats was led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Congressman Steny Hoyer. The delegation toured an Iron Dome battery and "Hezbollah’s terrorist tunnels" in northern Israel, the Israeli army said Friday on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter. "With this trip, House Democrats reaffirm our commitment to the special relationship between the United States and Israel," Jeffries said before his second visit to Israel this year. “We reiterate our ironclad commitment to the safety and security of Israel and to the existence of Israel as a prosperous and Jewish democratic state," he added. The Israeli army said it held "productive discussions" with the U.S. delegation on shared security challenges & "strengthening the ironclad bond between Israel and the U.S."

UN concerned as Cyprus sends Syrian migrants back to Lebanon
Associated Press/11 August 2023
The United Nations refugee agency said Friday it was "extremely concerned" over the return of more than 100 Syrian nationals from Cyprus to Lebanon without being screened to determine whether they need legal protection and who may be deported back to their war-wracked homeland. The UNHCR office in Cyprus said deportations and transfers between states "without legal and procedural safeguards for persons who may be in need of international protection" are against international and European law. Such transfers could result in people sent back to a country where "they may face the risk of persecution, torture, cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and other irreparable harm," the agency told the Associated Press. The 109 migrants had all reached Cyprus aboard three separate boats between Jul. 29-Aug. 2 before being returned by boat under Cyprus police escort. The Cyprus government said such returns are being lawfully carried out in line with a bilateral agreement the island nation and neighboring Lebanon signed in 2004.
According to senior Interior Ministry official Loizos Hadjivasiliou, the agreement obligates Lebanon to prevent and stop illegal border crossings and illegal migration of individuals who depart from Lebanon.
Hadjivasiliou told the Associated Press these individuals are returned to Lebanon, which is deemed safe and where they enjoy benefits afforded to the hundreds of thousands of refugees in the country.
"Under these circumstances, we believe that they don't face any danger and their choice to set sail toward a European Union member country is being made for clearly economic reasons."Lebanon hosts some 805,000 UN-registered Syrian refugees, but officials estimate the actual number is far higher, ranging between 1.5 and 2 million. An increasing number of would-be migrants - both refugees and Lebanese - have attempted to leave Lebanon by sea since the country fell into a crippling economic crisis over the past four years. About 90% of Syrian refugees in Lebanon live below the extreme poverty line, according to UNHCR. Hadjivasiliou said in line with the bilateral agreement, Cypriot authorities don't process migrants' asylum claims because their arrival is "clearly a matter of illegal trespass."
"The Cyprus Republic is in no way implicated in pushbacks and never refuses assistance in case of a search and rescue operation to first and foremost protect human lives," Hadjivasiliou said. Cypriot Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou traveled to Lebanon last month for talks with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Azmi Mikati and other top officials to ensure that the bilateral agreement remains in effect and to bolster cooperation on stemming migrant arrivals. Lisa Abou Khaled, a spokesperson for the UNHCR office in Lebanon, told the Associated Press that most all 109 migrants that were returned from Cyprus were deported to Syria after being investigated by the Lebanese army. Khaled said the UNHCR maintains that anyone who wishes to re-enter Lebanon and who may fear returning to their country of origin "should be readmitted so that their protection needs can be properly addressed."
Lebanon has stepped up Syrian refugee deportations in April, as anti-refugee sentiment in the crisis-hit country intensifies. Lebanese authorities have pointed to a 2019 regulation allowing unauthorized refugees who entered the country after April of that year to be deported, but human rights groups argue that the forcible return of refugees to a country where they might face persecution or torture violates international law. Cyprus has in recent years sought EU help to cope with a large influx of migrants including from sub-Saharan Africa that have taxed the small country's limited resources. The EU is co-financing the construction of a new reception center for migrants, with capacity for 1,000 people, while their asylum claims are being processed or initially turned down.
Cypriot authorities see the agreement with Lebanon as a key legal barrier to potentially opening the floodgates for people smugglers to bring huge numbers of migrants to EU territory on the promise of better benefits.
In recent months, Cyprus has seen a significant uptick in boat arrivals from Lebanon and Syria. As a result, the government decided to exclude migrants who arrived after Jan. 1st of this year from eligibility for relocation to another EU country. "The aim of this policy is for the relocation program not to become a point of attraction for citizens of a specific third country who may take advantage of the program and use Cyprus as a waystation to other European Union member states," a statement said. But measures to stem migrant arrival numbers have produced results, according to official figures. Asylum applications between May and July of this year were down 53% from the same period last year, dropping down to 4,976 claims. Moreover, some 3,670 people have been returned to their home countries, up by more than 1,300 from the same period last year.

Alvarez & Marsal findings: Forensic audit report reveals lack of transparency and mismanagement at BDL
LBCI/11 August 2023
A comprehensive forensic audit report conducted by Alvarez & Marsal has shed light on significant issues within the Banque du Liban (BDL), which can be summarized in three main points: lack of transparency, concealment of losses, and unilateral decision-making. The report exposes a rapid deterioration in the financial state of the BDL, which went from having a surplus of $7.2 billion in foreign reserves in 2015 to incurring losses exceeding $50 billion by 2020.
However, this dire situation was not accurately reflected in the BDL's financial statements, which, according to the forensic audit, overstated asset valuations and profits to a significant extent. The auditing firm criticized the complex financial engineering employed by former BDL Governor Riad Salameh to attract high-interest deposits, which incurred a hefty cost of LBP 115 trillion, approximately $76 billion at the exchange rate of LBP 1500 to one USD. The report also highlights that the execution of these policies by the governor was often secretive and personalized, leading to a lack of accountability. Alvarez & Marsal concluded that the BDL's accounting practices had failed. The audit further emphasizes that the Central Council should have been actively monitoring and discussing these operations. Nonetheless, minutes from the council meetings reveal that Governor Salameh exerted considerable control over discussions and decisions. In addition, the audit exposed financial improprieties related to the company "Forry," owned by Raja Salameh, the former governor's brother. According to the audit, unauthorized commissions amounting to $111 million were disbursed to the company. During an ongoing financial deterioration at the BDL, extravagant expenses were reportedly incurred for purposes not necessarily aligned with the institution's financial stability. Around LBP 30 billion, approximately $20 million at the exchange rate of LBP 1500 to one USD, were allocated by the BDL as aid and donations to various entities. Additionally, $7.6 million was disbursed as sponsorships to multiple companies, organizations, festivals, and associations. Over LBP 2 billion, approximately $1.4 million in cash, was directed to the governor for travel expenses and conference attendance.
Approximately LBP 6 billion, roughly $3.86 million, was spent renting an office for the Central Bank in Paris. Notably, substantial funds were allocated for furnishing the governor's office in the Financial Market Authority building and executive directors' offices, totaling $1 million, along with artwork and decorations valued at LBP 2.7 billion, approximately $1.78 million. Alvarez & Marsal's observations revealed numerous questionable transactions, with invoices for different agreements totaling LBP 331 billion, approximately $200 million. Many of these transactions lacked clear direction or purpose.

TL goes off air, Makari says closure not permanent
Naharnet/11 August 2023 
Lebanon’s national television, Tele Liban, went off air on Friday amid an employees’ strike. Caretaker Information Minister Ziad Makari meanwhile denied that he ordered the closure of the TV network. “Tele Liban has not been closed and I don’t have an intention to do so. Everything that has been published is mere lies, we’re trying to address the problems and the most of the demands of employees have been fulfilled,” Makari added. “Tele Liban will resume broadcasting and we’re working with part of the employees ,” the minister went on to say.

Pointing fingers: Tele Liban faces uncertainty amid employees' strike
LBCI/11 August 2023
In an unprecedented turn of events, Lebanon's state-run television channel, Tele Liban, welcomed its viewers on Friday morning with a blank screen replacing the usual array of programs and news broadcasts.
The channel's employees, frustrated by unfulfilled promises, have entered their second week of continuous strike action, leaving them unable to sustain regular operations. Negotiations with Ziad Makari, the caretaker Information Minister and the overseer of the television station, are ongoing.
Amidst these negotiations, employees were caught off guard when Makari verbally informed the transmission department workers on Friday of the immediate suspension of Tele Liban's broadcasting. The decision to halt broadcasting has left employees pointing fingers at Makari, holding him responsible for the abrupt closure. In response, Makari has placed blame on Mirna Chidiac, the president of the Tele Liban Employees' Union. He accuses her of persistently advocating for program suspensions and utilizing the public platform to disseminate information exclusively aligned with her agenda. Makari asserts that this approach places an undue financial burden on the state treasury, particularly regarding unaccounted expenses, such as fuel costs, associated with the broadcasts. However, he emphasizes that his decision was to freeze broadcasting temporarily, not to shut down the channel, contrary to circulating rumors permanently. This is not the first instance where Lebanon's state television has grappled with financial turmoil. Strikes have shadowed the institution since its inception in the 1950s, culminating in its first closure in 2001 under the leadership of then-Information Minister Ghazi Aridi. The decision was jointly endorsed by President Emile Lahoud and Prime Minister Rafik Hariri at the time. Nevertheless, a crucial distinction between the first and current closures can be drawn. The initial shutdown was defined by a specific timeframe and objectives, lasting three months to facilitate the station's restructuring. In contrast, the current closure's outcome remains uncertain while stemming from known reasons.

Laws under scrutiny: Sovereign wealth fund and capital controls in focus at legislative session
LBCI/11 August 2023
As part of the legislative agenda for the forthcoming session scheduled on Thursday, five critical laws and legislative proposals are set to be discussed, with two being the most important. The first pertains to establishing a sovereign wealth fund, while the second involves capital controls. However, the second has undergone multiple rounds of review, having been previously debated in the general assembly before being referred back to committees for revisions. Notably, the former central bank governor, Riad Salameh, had objected to specific provisions, a sentiment shared by the Association of Banks through close deputies. Will these proposals gain approval in the upcoming session? The sovereign wealth fund, designed for the management and investment of petroleum resources, has been meticulously studied and is slated to operate as a public institution with a distinctive nature. It is intended to operate independently of public sector entities' management rules. This differentiation is attributed to its role in managing state-owned petroleum resources belonging to the Lebanese state, as it has a legal figure and financial and administrative autonomy.
The legislative session requires a quorum of one-half plus one, totaling sixty-five MPs. The crucial factor lies in the participation of the Strong Lebanon bloc.
It is known that the Strong Lebanon bloc insists that its participation in legislative sessions is related to the adoption of reform laws, so does it consider the proposed laws reformist, especially since it praised the completion of the Sovereign Fund Law proposal in the Finance Committee. A Strong Lebanon bloc MP reported to LBCI that they have not reached a final decision, but the matter remains open. He continued, "It is more likely that we are going to participate in light of the importance of the two issues raised, and if we participate at that time, the quorum will be secured, and we agree with the approval of these two items due to their importance."
The Democratic Gathering, supportive of legislating necessity-driven laws, will participate in the session and vote on these critical proposals, which have undergone thorough scrutiny. Secretary-General of the Democratic Gathering, MP Hadi Aboul Hosn, asserted that it is their duty as MPs to demonstrate goodwill towards all and express their commitment to reform and its regulatory frameworks. The remaining parliamentary blocs, including Development and Liberation, Loyalty to the Resistance, National Moderation, New Lebanon, National Accord, and Independent National Bloc, are expected to vote on the sovereign wealth fund proposal following a comprehensive examination.
While most of these blocs support the principle of enacting capital controls, some await the outcome of discussions during the session. In conclusion, approving the sovereign wealth fund legislation seems plausible should the quorum be secured. As for capital controls, the matter remains uncertain. Will the pressures of the deputy governors succeed in its passage, or will it undergo further revisions upon objection? Notably, LBCI has learned that Wassim Mansouri, the acting central bank governor, will be invited to the session to present the objections raised by deputy governors to the proposed formulations. If approved, the legislation will proceed; otherwise, it will be referred back to the relevant committees for further deliberations.

Cash Allowance Program for People with Disabilities: How to register and benefit
LBCI/11 August 2023
Individuals with disabilities or those familiar with such circumstances can join us as we explore the registration for the Cash Allowance Program for People with Disabilities and how to make the most of its benefits.
Funded by the European Union, this program provides a monthly financial stipend of $40 to individuals with disabilities to offer support, motivation, and a sense of independence. Since its launch in April 2022, thousands of individuals with disabilities have already benefited from the program.
Certain conditions must be met to qualify for registration, including:
-Individuals must be born between 1995 and 2005.
- They should possess a valid, non-expired disability ID card the Social Affairs Ministry issued.
- They should contact the nearest center of Disabled Rights Insurance Centers to schedule an appointment between Tuesday and Thursday during official working hours from 8:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.
Once the appointment is scheduled and after visiting the center and confirming the card's validity, individuals with disabilities undergo a medical examination to assess their health condition. Subsequently, their names are entered into the system, and they receive the $40 allowance on the 15th of each month. In the case of an expired ID card, individuals should contact the nearest card delivery center to schedule an appointment for card renewal. Information about these centers can be found on the LBCI website.
The documents required for card renewal include the following:
- Two passport-sized photos
- ID card or individual civil registration extract
- A recent medical report from a specialized physician
Moreover, a hotline is available for any inquiries at 04-727470 from Monday to Friday between 9:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m.
Alternatively, you can visit the official website of the Social Affairs Ministry:
https://www.socialaffairs.gov.lb/

UN: Fighting Has Left Half of Lebanon's Largest Palestinian Refugee Camp a Hot Area
Asharq Al Awsat/11 August 2023
Days of fighting in the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon displaced several hundred families, destroyed up to 400 houses and left half the camp still off-limits and considered “a hot area,” a senior UN official said Thursday. Dorothee Klaus, Director of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, said she was able to visit part of the Ein el-Hilweh camp for the first time earlier this week and met with traumatized children and women, some whose hair turned white during the hostilities, The Associated Press said. The fighting between members of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah group and militants at Ein el-Hilweh near the southern port of Sidon that began July 30 and ended Aug. 3 left 13 people dead and dozens wounded. Klaus said “the camp remains unstable,” with the Lebanese military barring access to half the camp because armed fighters are still positioned there and it’s not safe though hostilities have ceased. She told UN journalists at a video press conference that the UN agency, known as UNRWA, has reopened services in about 50% of the camp which includes one health center, but a school complex for over 3,000 children was also damaged.
“We’ve been collecting garbage, disinfecting, and started removing rubble,” she said, and when the other half of the camp reopens the first thing will be to remove unexploded ordnance and remnants of war. Ein el-Hilweh, which is home to over 50,000 Palestinian refugees, is one of a dozen refugee camps in Lebanon. The country has between 200,000 and 250,000 Palestinian refugees, half living in camps and the rest in the vicinity, she said. Violent clashes are a regular occurrence and many camps have been destroyed several times, Klaus said, pointing to previous clashes in Ein el-Hilweh in March. She said the violence “needs to be understood in the context of multiple displacements” Palestinian refugees have experienced over the past 75 years in Lebanon. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled from what is now Israel following the UN’s partition of British-ruled Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states in 1948. Refugees in Lebanon are still prevented from working in middle class professions as doctors, lawyers and engineers and they are barred from owning property, so all those who have studied have migrated “leaving very vulnerable populations behind,” Klaus said. She said 50% of men over the age of 16 are unemployed, the remainder have sporadic employment, and 80% of refugees live in poverty. “So, it is indeed, a very desperate picture for a community that has very little future outlook that is positive after 75 years,” Klaus said. “It is a population that is very depressed, and that comes from a sense of being very helpless,” which often translates into either aggression, self-destructive behavior including substance abuse, or violence within the family. The impact of the most recent violence is that the refugee community has been retraumatized, she said, still suffering from “very high rates of non-communicable diseases which we attribute to very high levels of stress.” Klaus said UNRWA needs $12 million to provide cash assistance to 65% of the refugees, which she said would be “a major stabilizing factor,” especially at a time that Lebanon is facing a major economic crisis.
Can anything be done to prevent another violent clash in the refugee camps? “Every crisis is an opportunity to thrash out a roadmap for preventing this from happening,” Klaus said. “We’re counting on a high-level meeting between various Palestinian parties and the Lebanese next week which we will also participate in, looking at some of the mechanisms for the rehabilitation and reconstruction process – and some of these questions will certainly be asked.”

What's behind the recent events in Lebanon?
Ali Karbalaei/Iran Times/August 11, 2023
TEHRAN - Lebanon has witnessed a number of incidents over the past week that have made the headlines. Armed clashes broke out at Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Southern Lebanon, between the Fatah faction and extremist militants, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati blamed on outside forces and their "repeated attempts to use Lebanon as a battleground for the settling of scores."Between 29 July and 2 August, explosions and gunshots shook the camp, resulting in at least 12 deaths, dozens of injuries, and the displacement of around 2,000 people. There are different narratives about how the fighting started, but it made international headlines. It is unlike the killing of Palestinians by Israelis in the occupied West Bank or the besieged Gaza Strip. At the same time, the Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut issued a call on its citizens to leave Lebanon and not to travel to areas where there are armed clashes. The embassy did not specify which areas to avoid. A statement stressed “the importance of adhering to the Saudi travel ban to Lebanon”. A few other Persian Gulf states also updated their travel advice for Lebanon. Some analysts also went on regional media predicting things to turn ugly in light of the Saudi warning. However, several days have passed, and nothing has happened, with the exception of damage incurred to the Lebanese tourism industry. Sources have told news outlets close to Hezbollah that the statements of the Persian Gulf embassies were merely political and related to the presidential election. A ceasefire is in place at the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp and appears to be holding. It's not the first time that fighting has erupted at the camp or other Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, condemned the fighting during a speech delivered on the Day of Ashura, saying it only undermines the resistance against the Israeli enemy. During the speech, Sayyed Nasrallah also warned Israel against its occupation of Lebanese territory along the border with the occupied Palestinian territories.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese army organized a field tour along the Blue Line for representatives of member states of the UN Security Council accredited to Lebanon in the presence of local, regional, and international media.
The tour included a presentation of the Blue Line (a border line between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories published by the United Nations on 7 June 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel had fully withdrawn from Lebanon) with detailed information about the points of contention.
Upon arrival, two Israeli gunboats violated Lebanese territorial waters in full view of the international delegation. The delegation also moved to a Lebanese army station at Ras al-Naqouras adjacent to an Israeli watchtower, where surveillance cameras, jamming and listening devices, other espionage equipment as well as troops are holed up in it. Some army officers in the Fifth Brigade explained to the international diplomats the extent of the Israeli violations on Lebanese territory. Then Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh delivered a speech in which he affirmed that “Lebanon has reservations about these violations, including 13 border positions still occupied by the Zionist enemy," stressing that the border demarcation was completed in 1923 and that Lebanon will never accept any amendments. "These areas at the southern border have been recorded since the adoption of the Blue Line, and therefore they are a line of withdrawal (for Israeli occupation) and not a demarcation of the borders," General Shehadeh stated. The demarcation of Lebanon’s border with Palestine took place in 1923. It was then enshrined in an armistice agreement in 1949.
Shehadeh stressed that “Lebanon does not care about what is said about a land demarcation, and that this word is not present in our dictionary as a Lebanese army and as a Lebanese government. We are talking about fixing the borders and showing the Lebanese borders, not demarcating the borders.”
"When the Blue Line was drawn up in the year 2000 by the United Nations, it came in more than one place that does not coincide with international borders, and we called it a line of withdrawal, not a border line, and therefore we seek that the Blue Line becomes identical with what is identified in internationally."
He concluded by stressing that "we will preserve Lebanon's right to every grain of soil from its land, and this is what we are doing." Israel has called on Lebanon via international mediators to remove two tents set up by Hezbollah in the Sheba'a Farm area. Beirut's response was that the two tents are located on Lebanese territory. Tensions have escalated further recently after Israel re-occupied northern Ghajar village, southeast Lebanon. Israeli media reports have said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet his top military commanders to study the situation. During his Ashura speech, Nasrallah issued a warning to Israeli political and military leaders saying, "Be careful of any stupidity. The resistance in Lebanon will not step back from its duty. It is ready for any option, danger, or stupidity."He pointed out that "Israel speaks of Hezbollah threats on the border when the regime has the nerve to occupy our territory."
In the last Israeli war against Lebanon in July 2006, the regime acknowledged its defeat, as it was taken aback by the strength of Hezbollah's power. Today, according to experts, the Lebanese resistance has between 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers along with a wide array of powerful missiles and other sophisticated weapons it has kept secret. Experts believe that if Israel were to wage a war against Lebanon today, Hezbollah is capable of capturing the entire Galilee region and perhaps more (northern occupied Palestinian territories) within the first two to three days of the war. That is one-third of the entire occupied Palestinian territories. Many things have changed since July 2006. Not only has Hezbollah become more powerful, but the region has changed.  There is a possibility that any Israeli war on Lebanon would draw in Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha'abi, Yemen's Ansarullah as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and the newly formed resistance in the occupied West Bank. Syria would also find a good opportunity to liberate the Golan Heights and attack from that direction. Israel can assassinate resistance figures from the air. But with the introduction of drones on the battlefield, the regime's air superiority is no longer efficient, according to experts. When it comes to land combat, the regime has proven its cowardness, experts say. So Israel can launch a war against Lebanon's Hezbollah, but as Sayyed Nasrallah noted, it would be "stupid" to do so.

Lebanon’s former central bank governor cost country $7.7bn, report says
Arab News/August 11, 2023
BEIRUT: A preliminary forensic audit of Lebanon’s central bank by professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal has painted a damning picture of the institution under former Governor Riad Salameh. Caretaker Finance Minister Youssef Khalil presented copies of the report on Banque du Liban to caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and other lawmakers on Friday. It comprises 332 pages in 14 sections and details complex accounting, banking and administrative operations. The report comes after the US Treasury on Thursday announced sanctions on Salameh, as well as his son Nadi Salameh, brother Raja Salameh, assistant Marianne Howayek and friend Anna Kozakova. Salameh was still in office when Alvarez & Marsal won the audit contract in 2021. He stepped down last month. The report said that the financial engineering conducted by the former governor was “highly costly, with a total cost of 115 trillion Lebanese pounds ($7.7 billion) between 2015 and 2020.”The balance sheet did not show any losses, according to the report. Instead they were recorded under the categories of “other assets” and “clearance and settlement accounts.”No explanation was provided for the payment of interest to major depositors and borrowers.
The central bank resorted to issuing bonds and printing money, resulting in increased government spending and causing an inflation issue that affected its ability to stabilize the rate of change, the document said. In its preliminary findings, the report revealed that transfers to the account of Forry Associates Ltd. — owned by Raja Salameh and the subject of European judicial inquiries into possible corruption — totaled $333 million, including $111 million in illegal transfers. Civil movements have blamed Lebanon’s economic collapse since 2019 on the failure of successive governments and the financial engineering pursued by Salameh. The report said that the value of loans granted by the central bank totaled 15 trillion Lebanese pounds and that 23 individuals, entities and associations had unjustly benefited from financial support exceeding $100,000 each between 2015 and 2020. As a result of the unconventional standards adopted by the central bank and its manipulation of accounts, its deficit rose to 77 trillion Lebanese pounds in 2020, the report said. It said also that while the bank had a foreign currency surplus of $7.2 billion at the end of 2015, by the end of 2020 that had become a deficit of $50.7 billion. The rapid deterioration of the bank’s financial situation was not reflected in its balance sheet and financial statements, as its use of unconventional accounting standards allowed it to exaggerate the value of its assets and profits, the report said. The document also revealed minutes from a meeting of the bank’s central council that showed how Salameh shaped monetary policy, established accounting standards that concealed accumulated losses, and determined which banks would benefit from loans and financial engineering.
Members of the central council did not challenge those decisions or oversee the related details, it said. The report said that the unconventional policies applied by the central bank included: “Deferral of interest costs to increase profitability; creation of seigniorage balances to offset part of the deferred costs of matured CDs and pain coupons on outstanding instruments to increase profitability; overstating the carrying value of the Lebanese treasury bills by not recognizing the impairment in their value; recording of unrealized appreciation/(depreciation) of gold balance sheet resulting in understatement/(overstatement) of assets and equity; offsetting the Ministry of Finance’s US dollar overdraft liability to the central bank against treasury LBP deposits resulting in an understatement of both assets and liabilities; and offsetting the loans and deposits under leverage agreements resulting in an understatement of both assets and liabilities.”
The report also addressed the attraction of foreign deposits and their conversion into local assets. It found that a substantial portion of foreign currency assets were, in reality, local assets and said that if these amounts were to be returned, they would exert immense pressure on the Lebanese state, people and economy. The report said that at the end of each year, the governor directed the accounting department to offset financial transaction expenses. Consequently, the financial data released did not accurately portray the bank’s true financial position. “The positions and losses of BDL are presented through netting of assets and liabilities and through recording them in unexplained and general accounts such as ‘other assets’ and ‘clearance and settlement accounts,’” the report said. “No loss is shown at all in the balance sheet,” it added, noting that no information was provided to the public, such as profit and loss accounts from 2015 to 2020, interest paid to major depositors or granted to major borrowers, or the methodology for reporting those interests. Also, details such as deposit segmentation were withheld, as were the costs of financial engineering and related decisions, the report said. Instead, the central bank resorted to monetization to increase the supply of the Lebanese pound, leading to an increase in the country’s overall expenditure.The report said that central banks might sometimes engage in such activities, but an increase in those operations created an inflation problem and affected the ability to stabilize the exchange rate. It said the central bank also used financial engineering to keep US dollars within the banking system but once the phase of exchange rate stabilization ended, the approach of profiting from monetization became unconventional and unstable. The rise in the value of the Lebanese pound led to economic growth, especially in sectors that earned profits in foreign currency, the report said. The use of monetization was not entirely prudent and not disclosed to the public, it said.

U.S. emboldens Hezbollah at Israel’s expense
Tony Badran/Research Fellow/Jonathan Schanzer/Senior Vice President for Research/The Washington Times/August 11/ 202
Senior Israeli military officials tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the risk of war on the northern border is the highest in years. The IDF intelligence division warns that Hezbollah “is close to making a mistake that could plunge the region into a big war.”
This grave assessment is not new. For several months, the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon has been steadily provoking Israel. The group is daring the IDF to respond.
The last time these two crossed swords was 2006, after a deadly Hezbollah cross-border raid. The war that followed dragged on for more than month. Hezbollah fired nearly 4,000 rockets at Israel. Israel responded with air strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, including some embedded in civilian areas.
Since then, Hezbollah has been preparing for another round. It has replenished and upgraded its arsenal, amassing some 150,000 rockets. With Iran’s help, Hezbollah has also stockpiled hundreds of precision-guided weapons that may be capable of evading Israel’s defenses and striking strategic targets. Israel, which remains the strongest military in the Middle East, has fortified its capabilities, too. However, the prevailing assessment inside Israel’s security establishment is that it is best to postpone a painful war, and to prepare more fully for the inevitable next round.
The wisdom of this approach is untested. It’s also not without cost. Seasoned Israeli voices warn that every day Israel waits is another day Hezbollah grows stronger — and Israel’s deterrence weakens.
Washington has unfortunately aggravated Israel’s dilemma. The Pentagon consistently urges Israel not to engage. The State Department treats Lebanon like a protectorate and labors to preserve its stability. This policy has only emboldened and empowered Hezbollah, the real power in Lebanon.
Washington has even positioned itself as an intermediary between Israel and Hezbollah. In so doing, the Biden administration has reprised the role it played last year when it pushed Israel into a maritime border agreement with Lebanon. The aim was to allow Lebanon to share in the Mediterranean’s recent gas windfall. Amidst these talks, Hezbollah launched drones at Israel’s offshore infrastructure. The administration promptly leveraged this to press Israel to concede to all of Lebanon’s (that is, Hezbollah’s) maritime demands.
With America urging both restraint and concessions from Israel, Hezbollah has seized the initiative. Since 2021, Hezbollah has reopened hostilities along the border, albeit in a limited fashion. It started by claiming the right to respond to Israeli security measures in Jerusalem and military operations in the Palestinian arena. During the 2021 skirmish between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah orchestrated the firing of rudimentary rockets at Israel. The rockets did no damage; some didn’t even enter Israeli air space. Still, Hezbollah’s message was clear.
The Israeli response was equally clear. The Israel Defense Forces merely fired back at an empty patch of territory. This signaled a desire to avoid conflict with Hezbollah. The IDF was content to blame the incident on Palestinian factions. Adopting this convenient fiction only reinforced Hezbollah’s sense of impunity.
In spring of this year, Hezbollah again tethered itself to the Palestinian cause and dispatched an operative across the border to execute a bombing that killed one citizen deep in Israel, just north of the West Bank. Despite the severity of this attack, Israel declined to respond in Lebanon. Instead, Israel’s Defense Minister vowed to respond in “the right place and time.”
Subsequently, amidst security operations to quell unrest in Jerusalem and then a skirmish between Israel and Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah orchestrated more rocket fire, in the largest numbers since 2006. The Israelis once again fired at open fields.
More recently, Hezbollah launched a campaign at the border in a small patch of territory known in Israel as Mount Dov and in Lebanon as the Shebaa Farms and Kfar Shouba Hills. Though the United Nations rejects the claim that this is Lebanese territory, that is of no concern to Hezbollah. The group boldly erected a tent several meters inside Israeli territory and manned it with operatives. Remarkably, the Israelis did not remove the outpost.
By not responding to such provocations, one could argue Israel is the responsible party. But there is no prize for being sensible. In fact, Hezbollah took this behavior for weakness and doubled down.
Israel is still trying to resolve the matter diplomatically. However, such efforts are handled through American mediation. And unfortunately for Israel, the US posture in Lebanon is not favorable to Israel’s interests — or America’s for that matter.
The elephant in the room is that the Biden administration still wants a deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran – Hezbollah’s patron. As part of this policy, which began with the Obama administration, Washington compensates Iran by propping up its regional assets, like with the maritime deal, or underwriting the Lebanese Armed Forces, which collaborates regularly with Hezbollah, including in the group’s latest border provocation.
In a speech last month, Hezbollah’s leader explicitly stated that America’s posture was a direct factor in his calculation to erect the outpost inside Israeli territory. In other words, American policy is damaging Israel’s security, and Hezbollah is openly gloating about it.
It is now Israel’s move. The region is watching.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, *Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research.
Follow them on Twitter @AcrossTheBay and @JSchanzer. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Can the Lebanese Army Prevent a Hezbollah-Christian Conflict?
حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن : هل يستطيع الجيش اللبناني منع صراعات والمواحهات بين حزب الله والمسيحيين؟
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/Aug 11, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121097/121097/
Given the military’s behavior during a recent confrontation and the spike in Christian anger toward Hezbollah, Washington should consider fine-tuning its assistance to the LAF, cutting off units that are not committed to protecting the people.
In recent weeks, a series of security incidents between Lebanon’s Maronite Christian community and Hezbollah have raised the possibility of increased domestic instability. If this trend continues, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will need to play a crucial role in preventing major escalation and protecting civilians. Although there is a general understanding in Lebanon and Washington that the LAF will not go after Hezbollah, the army is still expected to protect the people from spikes in violence provoked by the group and to directly confront other armed elements (e.g., the Palestinian Islamist factions tied to recent clashes in Ain al-Hilweh, an issue that will be covered in future articles).
This week’s events in the Christian community of Kahaleh highlight the LAF’s priorities. On August 9, a Hezbollah truck loaded with weapons was passing through the village near Beirut on its way from Beqa when it overturned in front of a church. Hezbollah members rushed to the scene, surrounded the truck, and tried to stop locals from approaching. Yet rather than staying back as they normally would in situations involving Hezbollah, residents insisted on investigating, which led to a gun battle that caused two fatalities, one of them a Hezbollah member.
Realizing the situation could escalate even further, the Hezbollah personnel fled the scene, leaving the LAF in charge. Yet the confrontation continued—as army personnel removed the truck from the street, angry residents tried to stop them, demanding that the soldiers let them see the cargo and asking them to arrest the culprits who shot resident Fadi Bejjani. Instead, the soldiers pushed them away, stopped reporters on the scene from filming, and continued removing the truck and its contents.
The next day, the LAF issued a statement confirming that the truck contained weapons. Yet it failed to mention Hezbollah’s involvement and did not say whether the cargo will be handed back to the group. Military judge Fadi Akiki is now investigating the incident; given the military court’s close ties with Hezbollah, the cargo will probably be returned.
The LAF at a Crossroads
Kahaleh is hardly the first instance of clashes between Christians and Hezbollah. In a similar case in August 2021, residents in the Druze town of Chouya stopped a Hezbollah truck that was preparing to launch rockets against Israel following other launches earlier that day. Afterward, the launcher was returned to Hezbollah. Two months later, Hezbollah stormed the Christian neighborhood of Tayouneh in Beirut as a warning to authorities investigating the 2020 Beirut port disaster, which included allegations that the militia had been siphoning explosive ammonium nitrate stored there. Tayouneh is symbolic because it is where Lebanon’s civil war began in 1975, so Hezbollah’s message was clear: continuing the probe could lead to civil war. More recently, Hezbollah is suspected of assassinating Elias Hasrouni—a member of the so-called “Lebanese Forces,” a Christian political party—earlier this month.
Accumulating frustration with such behavior has led to increased hostility against Hezbollah on the street and in social media spaces, and for many Lebanese, the Kahaleh incident seems to have cracked the wall of fear surrounding Hezbollah. More Christian civilians and community leaders are now calling for an armed response and self-defense measures.
To contain the potential violence and prevent a security explosion, the LAF must do its core job of protecting the Lebanese people. If it refuses to tackle this duty in earnest, the result will be more armed groups and more neighborhood clashes. Independent armed groups have already begun to form in Christian neighborhoods and are taking security into their own hands—a potentially dangerous development given the rise of factions such as Junud al-Rab (Soldiers of God), which espouses strong sectarian rhetoric and a far-right social agenda. It is still too early to predict whether such elements will attack Shia neighborhoods or engage in other forms of violence, but their budding growth in popularity could pose problems for those hoping to keep the peace.
The LAF’s tendency to let Hezbollah perpetrators off the hook or abet their activities stems in part from an official Lebanese doctrine adopted by successive governments. For years, the formulation “the people, the army, and the resistance” has enabled the Hezbollah “resistance” to hold onto its weapons (in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the disarmament of all nonstate entities), move them around the country freely, and use residential neighborhoods as human shields against Israeli military action without any accountability. It is imperative that Lebanon’s next president be able to form a government that can challenge this doctrine and pursue a defense strategy that frees the LAF and other security institutions from the shackles of enabling Hezbollah. With a clear executive and legislative directive, the LAF would be empowered to act—or pressured to do so if it proves hesitant.
Either way, the Kahaleh incident showed that the LAF can no longer play the game of satisfying both its primary funders in Washington and its strange bedfellows in Hezbollah (and, by extension, the militia’s patrons in Iran) without consequences. Continuing that approach will only destroy the people’s eroding trust in the army, spurring more locals to take security into their own hands as they did in Kahaleh.
LAF commander Joseph Aoun may believe that the army’s response to this incident will bolster Hezbollah’s support for his presidential bid, but facts on the ground suggest otherwise. The LAF’s behavior in Kahaleh will likely undermine his support among key Christian constituencies and leaders, mainly the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. And Hezbollah’s position on Aoun’s political future did not change after the LAF seized weapons from Chouya residents and returned them in 2021, so he can hardly expect such a shift today.
Indeed, Hezbollah now wants more from the LAF—it aims to take over all security and military decisions, including who is appointed to key positions and how personnel respond to domestic incidents. The LAF is therefore at a crossroads: amid increased Christian resentment against Hezbollah and a widening void in state institutions, the army will have to decide whether to protect the people or the militia.
Domestic Political Fallout
The Kahaleh incident may affect ongoing talks between Hezbollah and Christian leader Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), regarding the next president, though to what degree is uncertain. Hezbollah leaders have never seen such resentment from the people—mainly Christians, who were always divided over the group.
After the incident, both Hezbollah and Bassil issued statements on the shootings. Hezbollah’s statement—that a Christian militia attacked its personnel—drew public criticism from FPM member Cesar Abi Khalil, who said it “contradicts the truth” and called for a discussion on turning over the perpetrators. His remarks likely stemmed from the fact that one of the victims was close to FPM, leaving the party unable to ignore the anger in the streets. Yet Bassil’s official statement endorsed Hezbollah’s stance.
Ultimately, the incident appears to have united the Christian street against Hezbollah and may therefore weaken the group’s Christian partners—not just Aoun, but also the militia’s preferred candidate, Sleiman Frangieh. Thus far, the Lebanese Forces party has accused Hezbollah of killing a civilian in Kahaleh, while Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel offered more forceful and wide-ranging remarks: “What if the truck had contained explosives, if the incident had caused a huge explosion and hundreds of people had been killed? We are not prepared to coexist with an armed militia in Lebanon. There will be practical measures, opposition meetings and decisions will be taken.”
These statements reflect real anger within the Christian community, though this resentment is hardly new. Antipathy toward Hezbollah has been growing ever since it attacked the people in May 2008 by invading the streets of Beirut and besieging the prime minister’s residence—something it had never done before. That incident made clear to many citizens that the militia had put its war with Israel on hold and was turning its weapons against the Lebanese people and other targets. Then came the Syria war, during which Hezbollah lost its credibility as a “resistance” group among Lebanon’s Sunni community and certain other constituencies. The biggest hit to its image came in 2019, when Hezbollah decided to protect the corrupt political class against mass public protests. The 2020 port explosion was another blow, especially after Hezbollah security chief Wafiq Safa publicly threatened Tarek Bitar, the judge leading the investigation.
Today, most citizens—including many in Hezbollah’s core Shia constituency—seem to view the group as an Iranian occupation force and regard its “resistance” narrative as irrelevant. Few believe that its arms are necessary to liberate or even protect Lebanon.
The U.S. Role
The Kahaleh incident gives Washington another opportunity to use its ample assistance to the LAF as leverage for ensuring accountability. In particular, U.S. officials should inquire about the army’s response to the shooting, the truck’s whereabouts, and any plans the military judiciary may have for returning the weapons to Hezbollah.
More broadly, Washington should look into the structure of its military aid to the LAF and decide which units actually deserve this assistance and which do not. For example, the LAF unit that responded to the Tayouneh clashes of 2021 performed better than the unit in Kahaleh. In Tayouneh, the army protected the neighborhood and its residents by shielding locals from gunmen entering the area and later arresting armed elements on both sides. This approach was deliberately chosen by the commander on the ground and may have been coordinated with elements of the LAF leadership. Such units and commanders need to be protected, assisted, and encouraged, while those who take Hezbollah’s side against civilians should not benefit from U.S. aid.
Moreover, some LAF institutions—such as the military courts and army intelligence—are more infiltrated and controlled by Hezbollah than others. U.S. aid to these institutions could serve the militia’s interests more than the army’s capabilities and Lebanon’s stability. Washington should also pay extra attention to military and security appointments, since these play a key role in Hezbollah’s efforts to take over decisionmaking in this sector.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and author of Hezbollahland: Mapping Dahiya and Lebanon’s Shia Community.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 11-12/2023
White House: There will be restrictions on any unfrozen Iranian funds
Reuters/August 11, 2023
WASHINGTON: The White House stressed on Friday that there would be restrictions on what Iran could do with any funds unfrozen under an emerging agreement that has led to the release of five Americans from prison to house arrest in Tehran. White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the United States would have “full visibility” into where any released Iranian funds are directed and used. An estimated $6 billion in Iranian assets are now held in South Korea. “Essentially, the funds can only be accessed for food, medicine, medical equipment that would not have a dual military use,” he said. “And there will be a rigorous process of due diligence and standards applied with input from the US Treasury Department.” The five Americans will be allowed to leave Iran after the funds are unfrozen, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. While stressing that negotiations are ongoing and “the deal is not done,” Kirby said there would be “no impediment” to the transfer of the restricted account from South Korea to Qatar, where Iran would then be able to access the funds. The potential transfer has drawn Republican criticism that President Joe Biden, a Democrat, is effectively paying a ransom for the US citizens. Moreover, they contend that allowing Iran to use the money for humanitarian goods could free up funds for its nuclear program or to back militias in nations such as Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted on Thursday that the deal does not mean that Iran would be getting any sanctions relief. As a first step in what may be a complex set of maneuvers likely to take weeks, Iran allowed four detained US citizens to move into house arrest from Tehran’s Evin prison on Thursday. A fifth was already under home confinement. Under the deal, the United States would release some Iranians from US prisons, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal cited people familiar with the matter as saying Iran has significantly slowed the pace at which it is accumulating near weapons-grade enriched uranium and has diluted some of its stockpile.
Kirby said he could not confirm the report but said “any steps that Iran might take to slow down enrichment certainly would be welcome.” “We’re not in active negotiations about the nuclear program,” he added. “But certainly those sorts of steps, if they were to be true, would be welcome.”Tensions have boiled since then-US President Donald Trump, a Republican, withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal designed to curb Iran’s atomic program. Negotiations between the Biden administration and Iran for resumption of the accord have failed. Iran has denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon.

Iran transfers 5 Iranian-Americans from prison to house arrest in step toward deal for full release
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/August 11/ 2023
Iran has moved five Iranian-Americans from prison to house arrest in exchange for billions of dollars frozen in South Korea, U.S. and Iranian officials said Thursday, as part of a tentative deal that follows months of heightened tensions between the two countries. Iranian officials at the United Nations told The Associated Press that the prisoner transfer marked “a significant initial step" in the implementation of the agreement, which is still being negotiated and could eventually lead to the full release of the Americans. Iran acknowledged that the deal involves $6 billion to $7 billion that were frozen as a result of sanctions. Iranian officials said the money would be transferred to Qatar before being sent on to Iran if the agreement goes through. The final transfer of the money — and the release of the five detainees — is expected in the next month or so due to the complicated nature of the financial transactions, officials said. “My belief is that this is the beginning of the end of their nightmare and the nightmare that their families have experienced,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a news conference in Washington, adding that more work would be necessary to free the five.
State Department officials spoke to the prisoners on Thursday, he said. The deal unfolded amid a major American military buildup in the Persian Gulf, with the possibility of U.S. troops boarding and guarding commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of all oil shipments pass.
The agreement is bound to open U.S. President Joe Biden to fresh criticism from Republicans and others that his administration is helping to boost the Iranian economy at a time when Iran poses a growing threat to U.S. troops and Mideast allies. U.S.-based lawyer Jared Genser, who represents one of the prisoners, said the five will likely be held at a hotel under guard. There are “simply no guarantees about what happens from here,” he said. Neda Sharghi, whose brother, Emad Sharghi, is among the prisoners, said in a statement that her family "has faith in the work that President Biden and government officials have undertaken to bring our families home.” Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council, described the negotiations for the release as “ongoing” and delicate.”“While this is an encouraging step, these U.S. citizens ... should have never been detained in the first place,” she said in a statement. It remains unclear how many Iranian-Americans are held by Tehran, which does not recognize dual citizenship. The prisoners include Siamak Namazi, who was detained in 2015 and was later sentenced to 10 years in prison on internationally criticized spying charges; Sharghi, a venture capitalist sentenced to 10 years; and Morad Tahbaz, a British-American conservationist of Iranian descent who was arrested in 2018 and also received a 10-year sentence.
The fourth and fifth prisoners were not identified.
Iran, meanwhile, has said it seeks the release of Iranian prisoners held in the U.S.
American officials declined to comment on who or how many Iranian prisoners might be released in a final agreement. But Iranian media in the past identified several prisoners with cases tied to violations of U.S. export laws and restrictions on doing business with Iran. The alleged violations include the transfer of money through Venezuela and sales of dual-use equipment that the U.S. alleges could be used in Iran’s military and nuclear programs. Iran has been enriching uranium and stockpiling it as part of its advancing nuclear program. The deal hinges on the frozen assets in South Korea. In the dispute over the money, Tehran seized a South Korean oil tanker and threatened further retaliation this month. “Definitely Iran will not remain silent, and we have many options that could harm the Koreans, and we will certainly use them,” said Fadahossein Maleki, a member of the Iranian parliament who sits on its influential national security and foreign policy committee. Iran and the U.S. have a history of prisoner swaps dating back to the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover and hostage crisis following the Islamic Revolution. The most recent major exchange between the two countries happened in 2016, when Iran came to a deal with world powers to restrict its nuclear program in return for an easing of sanctions. Four American captives, including Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, flew home from Iran, and several Iranians in the United States won their freedom. That same day, President Barack Obama's administration airlifted $400 million in cash to Tehran. Iran has received international criticism over its targeting of people with dual citizenship. The West accuses Iran of using foreign prisoners as bargaining chips, an allegation Tehran rejects. Negotiations over a major prisoner swap faltered after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the nuclear deal in 2018. From the following year on, a series of attacks and ship seizures attributed to Iran have raised tensions. Biden entered office with hopes of restarting the deal, but diplomatic negotiations on the accord have been stalled for a year. Though none of the money frozen in South Korea will enter the U.S. financial system on its way to Qatar, the release is being done with American approval and is bound to draw disapproval from the GOP. Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who is now seeking the Republican presidential nomination, said the proposed deal would provide Iran with money to produce drones for Russia and “fund terrorism.”“China and Russia, who are also holding Americans hostages, now know the price has just gone up,” Pence said in an online statement. The troop buildup may insulate Biden from criticism from Arab nations in the Persian Gulf, which rely on American security guarantees. The U.S. also is negotiating with Saudi Arabia over potentially recognizing Israel diplomatically, a deal that may involve further guarantees about military support against Iran. Riyadh reached a détente with Iran in March after years of tensions.

U.S. to Release $6 Billion to Iran in Exchange for Hostages
FDD/August 11/2023
Latest Developments
The United States and Iran reached a deal on August 10 for Tehran’s release of five Iranian-American dual nationals to house arrest in exchange for Washington’s release of several jailed Iranians and the unfreezing of about $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue. The prisoners Iran freed include Siamak Namazi, Emad Sharghi, and Morad Tahbaz — all of whom Tehran incarcerated on spurious espionage charges — as well as two unnamed detainees. A lawyer for Namazi said Iran transferred the three named prisoners and one other to a hotel in Tehran, where they will remain for several weeks before they can board a plane to Qatar, which helped broker the agreement. Tehran released the fifth prisoner to house arrest earlier.
Expert Analysis
“It’s good news that American hostages, illegally seized by the regime in Iran, are coming home. But paying $6 billion in ransom payments means the regime will only take more hostages. This has become a lucrative means of international extortion for Iran’s supreme leader. The $6 billion will not only be used for humanitarian purposes. In the real world, where cash is fungible, it will free up $6 billion to be used for terrorism, funding drones for Russia, domestic repression, and nuclear weapons expansion. Only when the regime is severely punished for illegally seizing hostages, not rewarded with billions in ransom payments, will it put a stop to these humanitarian abuses.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“This is not a prisoner exchange; it’s the largest hostage ransom payment in American history. This money isn’t for humanitarian relief; it’s budget support to the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. At more than $1 billion per hostage, Iran, Russia, and China will be more likely to take Americans hostage, not less.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
“A prisoner swap deal with Tehran and Washington is emerging. But this time, the Islamic Republic reportedly stands to receive access to both frozen funds and the release of persons jailed by the United States —assumedly on sanctions busting or worse violations — in exchange for hostages it has taken. Should this be the opening salvo of a lesser or unwritten political arrangement with Iran over its nuclear program, Washington will have truly, to borrow a phrase, learned nothing and forgotten nothing about how to conduct diplomacy with Tehran.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
A History of Ransom Payments
The latest prisoner release is not the first time Iran has demanded ransom payments in exchange for releasing hostages. In 2015 and early 2016, the Obama administration negotiated a similar scheme alongside the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, sending Iran $400 million — the first installment of a $1.7 billion payment — as Tehran released four Americans. The result was more hostages taken by the clerical regime, which transferred the $1.7 billion to its military budget. If $1.7 billion encouraged the regime to take more hostages, $6 billion will guarantee much more hostage-taking to come.
Iran Deliberately Pursues Hostages
Iran deliberately seeks hostages as a form of economic pressure against the West. “We’ll take 1,000 Americans hostage,” Mohsen Rezaei, a former vice president of Iran for economic affairs who has held multiple senior positions in the regime, said in 2021. “America will have to pay several billions to get every single one freed. This is how we can solve our economic problems.”

Confusion around US-Iran prisoner swap as Tehran puts out its own narrative
Al Monitor/August 11, 2023
Hours after Washington announced having reached a long-stalled prisoner swap deal with Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Ministry came out with its own confirmation — one which bore striking differences. The swap deal is expected to see the release of five US nationals held in Iran in exchange for an unspecified number of Iranians jailed in the United States. It will also see the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian assets from South Korean banks. US officials have said the funds will be transferred to a Qatari bank account, but that Iran will be allowed to use them only for "humanitarian purposes." However, in a statement on its official website late Thursday, Iran's Foreign Ministry declared that under the deal, Tehran will have full authority over how it will use the funds. "These financial resources will be applied to varying demands of the country, and a decision on how to spend them rests with the relevant [Iranian] institutions," the statement read. It also claimed that the unblocking process of the funds had already started, reasserting that the amount had been withheld "illegally" under US sanctions in the first place. The state-affiliated Fars news agency reported that the funds had even been converted from Korean won into euros, set to be deposited to the Qatari bank. The South Korean Foreign Ministry declared in a short statement on Friday that it had no information about reports on the swap deal, while noting that "our government has been closely consulting with involved countries," expressing hope that the issue will be resolved "amicably."
Iran said it had been provided with the "required guarantees" for the US compliance with the swap agreement, but it did not specify if a third party had ensured such guarantees. Protracted for over two years, US-Iran prisoner swap negotiations have involved Oman and Qatar, among other intermediaries, at varying stages. It remained immediately unclear how many Iranians will be released from US prisons. The Iranian side also fell short of giving numbers but claimed that there were "innocent" Iranians who had been detained in the United States under "the arbitrary charge of sanctions circumvention."
As confirmed by both sides, the five US nationals are currently under house arrest in Iran after they were freed from the notorious Evin Prison. While two remain unnamed, the other three are confirmed to be dual nationals Siamak Namazi, Emad Sharqi and Morad Tahbaz. Neither side has announced a precise timeline for the eventual departure of the five back home. The deputy chief of the Iranian presidential office, Mohammad Jamshidi, suggested in a tweet that none of those prisoners will be allowed to leave unless the funds are entirely unfrozen.
Despite the ongoing confusion, the swap deal was cautiously welcome in Iran's troubled foreign exchange market. The national currency, the rial, which has been plummeting to all-time lows in the past two years, regained some 2% of its lost value hours after the swap was confirmed and raised hopes for some injection into Iran's shrinking foreign currency reserves. To many Iranian hard-liners and their media outlets, the swap deal proved a moment of "victory" and a sign of the Islamic Republic's "firmness and authority," as well as a message to the exiled opposition that their regime change ambitions were crushed by the deal. Iran's decadeslong policy of holding American and other Western nationals over "espionage" has never ceased to be a contentious issue. Condemning it as "hostage taking," rights groups maintain that Tehran is increasingly pursuing the tactic for "ransom" and leverage, among other concessions from its adversaries.

Iran, South Africa sign agreement in Pretoria ahead of BRICS summit
Al Monitor/August 11, 2023
Iran and South Africa signed a cooperation agreement in Pretoria Thursday during Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s visit to his South African counterpart Naledi Pandor as the Islamic Republic pitches its membership in the BRICS group of developing economies. The signing took place after the two countries’ top diplomats co-chaired the 15th South Africa-Iran Joint Commission of Cooperation. Iran is looking to join BRICS, the influential group of developing economies consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. As chair of the group of five countries seen as an alternative to the Western hegemony, South Africa will host the annual BRICS summit in Johannesburg Aug. 22-24. Iranian President Raisi will visit South Africa to attend the meeting, during which new applicants will be considered. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the ministers emphasized “the need for comprehensive political and economic cooperation between the two countries to enhance intercontinental and global interactions.” The statement went on that Amir-Abdollahian made the case for Iran to join BRICS and urged South Africa to support Tehran’s bid for membership. Pandor expressed support for Iran’s bid, it read. "We hope to obtain the opportunity of accelerated membership under strong support we hope to receive from South Africa," Amir-Abdollohian said at a briefing in Pretoria. Pandor discussed the current political and security situations of African countries. She stressed Pretoria’s support for the Palestinian people and claimed the United Nations showed disregard for the Palestinian people's choices. Iran’s foreign minister expressed approval of South Africa's stance and said Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's proposal for resolving the Palestinian issue through a referendum among all Palestinians was the "only legitimate solution" to the Palestinian crisis. Amir-Abdollahian also broached the topics of the Ukraine war and civil unrest in Sudan as well as Yemen and Palestine, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said. Iran has been accused of supplying Russia with Shahed drones for use in its war against Ukraine. At the meeting with Pandor, Amir-Abdollahian refuted these allegations, claiming that Ukraine had not produced proof of Iran's involvement during a meeting between Iranian and Ukrainian military delegations in Muscat. However, the use of these drones in Ukraine has been well documented.
The two also discussed the security and political situation in Afghanistan, including the oppression of women in the country and the significant influx of Afghan refugees into Iran, the Foreign Ministry reported. Amir-Abdollahian attributed the current challenges of drug trafficking, security issues and refugees to the two decades of US occupation in Afghanistan.

Israeli army raid in northern West Bank kills Palestinian militant
Associated Press/August 11, 2023
The Israeli military stormed into a refugee camp in the northern occupied West Bank on Friday, sparking a firefight with Palestinian gunmen and killing a Palestinian man, medics said. The raid into the Tulkarem refugee camp was the latest deadly Israeli military operation into Palestinian cities and towns following a monthslong surge of violence that has escalated regional tensions, highlighted the weaknesses of the Palestinian Authority and helped fuel rising militancy in the restive occupied territory. The Israeli military said that Palestinians hurled explosive devices, fireworks and stones at troops, who fired back. Palestinian gunmen also blocked the roads, opened fire and burned tires in the cramped alleys of the camp, the army said. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that one man was killed and three others were wounded by Israeli fire. The Tulkarem branch of a loosely organized militant group known as the Lion's Den — which emerged in the northern city of Nablus last year — identified the man killed as Mahmoud Jarad and claimed him as a member. Israeli-Palestinian fighting in the West Bank has surged to levels unseen in nearly two decades, with more than 160 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire since the start of 2023, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Israel says most of those killed have been militants, but stone-throwing youths protesting the raids and others not involved in the confrontations have also been killed. At least 26 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis during that time. Israel says the raids are essential to dismantle militant networks and thwart future attacks. The Palestinians see the violence as a natural response to 56 years of occupation, including stepped-up settlement construction by Israel's government and increased violence by Jewish settlers. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war, along with the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem. Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for independent state.

Israel’s Lapid warns against Saudi Arabia enriching own uranium as Netanyahu pleads normalization
Ben Caspit/Al Monitor/August 11, 2023
TEL AVIV — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not been hiding his hopes of reaching a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia pronto, and almost at any cost, but apart from his troubles at home inside his own coalition, the Israeli premier is now confronted with objections to a deal by opposition leader Yair Lapid. Lapid, who preceded Netanyahu as prime minister, embarked this week on a campaign slamming Israel’s ostensible surrender to Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to obtain uranium enrichment technology. The Saudis are seeking US assistance in building and operating a nuclear power reactor as part of a three-way deal that would include a Saudi-Israeli peace. Lapid told Al-Monitor that he is not opposed to normalization with Saudi Arabia, on the contrary. "I worked on this a lot," he said. "During my time we signed the agreement that allows Israeli flights to pass over the kingdom [in 2022],” he said.
But on the nuclear issue, Lapid draws sharp contrast with Netanyahu. “I am focused on Israel's national security and the regional security of the Middle East. Imagine what Netanyahu would have done if my government had led a move allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium on its soil. After all, everyone knows that such a situation will not leave the Turks or Egyptians indifferent."
Further explaining, he said of the Turks and Egyptians, implying that such move could trigger a nuclear race in the region. "[They] will not be able to sit by while others enrich uranium, and a nuclear arms race will develop. Israel has had an orderly policy on this issue for 70 years, and there is no reason to violate it,” Lapid said. “In the Middle East, there is a simple rule: bad things that come into the region eventually fall into the wrong hands. You cannot take that gamble,” he warned. Lapid deliberated long and hard before embarking on his campaign, holding meetings in recent weeks with numerous security officials, including former directors of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. Over the years, Lapid’s modus operandi has been different from that of Netanyahu. While often blasting Netanyahu, the Yesh Atid leader has supported initiatives by his rival if he believed they would benefit Israel. Not so Netanyahu, who vehemently opposed Israel's landmark agreement demarcating the maritime border with Lebanon to allow both countries to drill for natural gas, accusing Lapid of selling out Israeli security and natural deposits. The Lapid government approved the deal shortly before it handed over power to Netanyahu in late 2022.
Lapid, however, believes that this time Netanyahu is crossing a red line. "I have no problem with civilian nuclear technology," he told Channel 12 News on Thursday. "The UAE has such technology, but it does not have the ability to enrich uranium on its territory. Israel cannot agree to uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia because it endangers national security, period. I know this issue is on the table, and I hope the Netanyahu government will do the right thing when the time comes."The Likud Party struck back at Lapid, noting that Netanyahu had achieved four historic peace agreements that strengthened Israel’s security and would continue to do so. Netanyahu does not have to depend on Lapid in the Knesset given the majority his hardline, right-wing government enjoys there, but the Knesset is definitively not the only arena where this game is being played. "Lapid's active opposition will cause a serious problem for the White House," an American source familiar with the negotiations told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. Referencing Netanyahu’s vehement public campaign against President Barack Obama and the nuclear agreement he signed with Iran in 2015, the source warned that if Lapid actively opposes the Joe Biden administration on the issue of a deal with the Saudis, he could subvert its approval by Congress. “Biden cannot afford defeat on this issue, and if Lapid decides to go all the way, he could be a decisive voice as a former prime minister," said the source.
Former Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz is yet to be heard from on the issue, although his voice carries weight as a former army chief and top defense official. Following the 2020 announcement of the normalization agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the Donald Trump administration advanced a deal to supply the emirates with stealth F-35 fighter jets. While Israelis were thrilled about the Abraham Accords, many were also alarmed over the potential F-35 deal. Until then, Israel was the only US ally in the Middle East to possess the stealth fighter. In an effort to soothe public opinion at home, Gantz, as defense minister under Netanyahu, rushed to Washington, and it was only after his visit that Netanyahu announced that he would not object to the US-UAE deal. Gantz's office revealed that his American counterparts had committed to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge.
Despite sitting on the opposition bench these days, Gantz has distinguished himself from Lapid with a less confrontational approach toward Netanyahu and will find it difficult to publicly oppose an agreement with Riyadh, one that most Israelis are expected to support given longtime national aspirations for peace with the Arab world’s leading power. If Gantz decides to join Lapid in his campaign, the duo’s active opposition could constitute a critical mass in the US administration's considerations.
At the same time, talk of a "defense pact" between Israel and the United States has reemerged in recent days as part of a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Citing Israeli and American officials, the news website Axios reported this week that Netanyahu wants a security agreement with Washington focused on deterring Iran in the context of the megadeal the Biden administration is trying to reach with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu had raised such an option with Trump in 2019, but is widely believed to have done so only for electoral purposes on the eve of elections. The issue was subsequently dropped. Israel’s defense establishment has long opposed the idea of a defense pact with the United States. A senior Israeli security source speaking on the condition of anonymity told Al-Monitor, "A defense pact will paralyze Israel's ability to act independently against the enemies of the state." It is not yet clear whether the renewed talk of a defense alliance is yet another Netanyahu spin or whether it would be a version leaving Israel free to undertake independent action. One way or another, a public confrontation on this issue, too, is expected between Netanyahu and political and security circles, as usual. Israel has its own nuclear program which is widely believed to have tens of nukes, even though the country has not officially acknowledged it publicly.
Confusion around US-Iran prisoner swap as Tehran puts out its own narrative
Hours after Washington announced having reached a long-stalled prisoner swap deal with Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Ministry came out with its own confirmation — one which bore striking differences.
The swap deal is expected to see the release of five US nationals held in Iran in exchange for an unspecified number of Iranians jailed in the United States. It will also see the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian assets from South Korean banks.
US officials have said the funds will be transferred to a Qatari bank account, but that Iran will be allowed to use them only for "humanitarian purposes."
However, in a statement on its official website late Thursday, Iran's Foreign Ministry declared that under the deal, Tehran will have full authority over how it will use the funds. "These financial resources will be applied to varying demands of the country, and a decision on how to spend them rests with the relevant [Iranian] institutions," the statement read.
It also claimed that the unblocking process of the funds had already started, reasserting that the amount had been withheld "illegally" under US sanctions in the first place. The state-affiliated Fars news agency reported that the funds had even been converted from Korean won into euros, set to be deposited to the Qatari bank. The South Korean Foreign Ministry declared in a short statement on Friday that it had no information about reports on the swap deal, while noting that "our government has been closely consulting with involved countries," expressing hope that the issue will be resolved "amicably."
Iran said it had been provided with the "required guarantees" for the US compliance with the swap agreement, but it did not specify if a third party had ensured such guarantees. Protracted for over two years, US-Iran prisoner swap negotiations have involved Oman and Qatar, among other intermediaries, at varying stages. It remained immediately unclear how many Iranians will be released from US prisons. The Iranian side also fell short of giving numbers but claimed that there were "innocent" Iranians who had been detained in the United States under "the arbitrary charge of sanctions circumvention."
As confirmed by both sides, the five US nationals are currently under house arrest in Iran after they were freed from the notorious Evin Prison. While two remain unnamed, the other three are confirmed to be dual nationals Siamak Namazi, Emad Sharqi and Morad Tahbaz.
Neither side has announced a precise timeline for the eventual departure of the five back home. The deputy chief of the Iranian presidential office, Mohammad Jamshidi, suggested in a tweet that none of those prisoners will be allowed to leave unless the funds are entirely unfrozen. Despite the ongoing confusion, the swap deal was cautiously welcome in Iran's troubled foreign exchange market. The national currency, the rial, which has been plummeting to all-time lows in the past two years, regained some 2% of its lost value hours after the swap was confirmed and raised hopes for some injection into Iran's shrinking foreign currency reserves. To many Iranian hard-liners and their media outlets, the swap deal proved a moment of "victory" and a sign of the Islamic Republic's "firmness and authority," as well as a message to the exiled opposition that their regime change ambitions were crushed by the deal. Iran's decadeslong policy of holding American and other Western nationals over "espionage" has never ceased to be a contentious issue. Condemning it as "hostage taking," rights groups maintain that Tehran is increasingly pursuing the tactic for "ransom" and leverage, among other concessions from its adversaries.

Israel deports Jewish Iranian suspected of spying attempt with tissue box
Reuters/August 11, 2023
JERUSALEM: Israel’s intelligence agency Shin Bet said it thwarted an Iranian espionage attempt on Friday when it detained and then deported a Jewish Iranian who flew in to the country with a tissue box it said was meant to hide surveillance equipment. The Shin Bet said the man, who has relatives in Israel, admitted in questioning at Ben Gurion Airport that he arrived in the country to spy on Israeli targets for Iranian security operatives. It said the man, who was found with cellphones, power banks and money, was refused entry and deported back to Iran.“This event is part of a broad Iranian effort to establish espionage and terror networks in Israel,” the Shin Bet said in a statement. Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Asked why the suspect was deported rather than prosecuted, a security official told Reuters that, among the agency’s other operative considerations, it believed the man was acting under pressure and was motivated by financial gain. The official added that there was a “low probability” for legal recourse, as the suspect was not an Israeli citizen. Israel and Iran have been locked in a shadow war for decades, with mutual allegations of sabotage and assassination plots. According to the World Jewish Congress, there were some 80,000 Jews in Iran on the eve of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, most of whom have left the country since, but the community is believed to still be the biggest in the Middle East outside Israel.

Islamic State attack kills 26 Syrian soldiers, third in 2 weeks
Al Monitor/August 11, 2023
The Islamic State carried out a deadly attack in eastern Syria overnight on Friday, its third in two weeks. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that at least 26 Syrian soldiers were killed and another 11 injured in the Al-Mayadeen desert in the countryside of Deir ez-Zor province. IS ambushed the bus using light and medium weapons; the death toll could still rise. According to the United Kingdom-based war monitor, the attack occurred early Friday morning. SANA, Syria’s official news outlet, reported that several Syrian soldiers had been “martyred” in Deir ez-Zor when a “terrorist group” targeted their bus. SANA said the attack occurred on Thursday, indicating that it may have occurred overnight. Why it matters: IS lost the last piece of territory it held in Syria in 2019, but it continues to carry out attacks in the country. It has been particularly active this month. On Aug. 1, its members ambushed a Syrian military oil truck convoy in the desert east of Hama, killing five soldiers. The group next attacked Syrian government forces on Aug. 7 east of Raqqa, killing 10. In late July in Damascus, a car bomb exploded, killing six near the Shiite shrine of Sayeda Zeinab. No group claimed responsibility, but Sunni extremist groups have carried out similar attacks targeting Shiites throughout the Syrian civil war. If such attacks continue in urban areas, it could necessitate Syrian government forces prioritizing them to the neglect of the rural areas. “This would leave other rural areas, such as the central Syrian desert, more exposed and allow ISIS to further strengthen its presence there,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a briefing last week. Much of the Islamic State’s activity takes place in the vast desert region of central and eastern Syria. Know more: The Islamic State’s leadership has been in flux since 2019 with the death of its longtime leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US raid in Syria and with several subsequent leaders also being killed. The Islamic State said last week that leader Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi had died in clashes with the Syrian Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Turkey claimed in April that its forces had killed him. IS named Abi Hafsan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi as its new head. The “continued leadership decapitation is unlikely to successfully defeat” the Islamic State, according to a Thursday briefing from the Institute for the Study of War. Correction: Aug. 11, 2023. This article was updated to correct the date of an attack near the Shiite shrine of Sayeda Zeinab in Damascus.

Ukraine to fire all regional military recruitment chiefs
Reuters/August 11, 2023
KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the dismissal of the heads of all the country’s regional military recruitment centers on Friday amid concerns about corruption. Zelensky said a review of Ukraine’s recruiting centers revealed signs of professional abuse ranging from illegal enrichment to transporting draft-eligible men across the border despite a wartime ban. “This system should be run by people who know exactly what war is and why cynicism and bribery during war is treason,” he said in a statement. Kyiv has made cracking down on graft a key priority as it fends off Russia’s full-scale invasion and seeks membership of the European Union. Zelensky said top general Valery Zaluzhny would be responsible for implementing the decision and that new candidates for the posts would first be vetted by Ukraine’s domestic security service, the SBU. Ukraine has faced recruitment challenges as the war with Russia nears the 18-month mark and the military is occasionally hit by scandals revealing graft or heavy-handed recruitment tactics.

US sanctions four Russians linked to financial conglomerate Alfa Group
Reuters/August 11, 2023
WASHINGTON: The US imposed new sanctions on Friday on four Russians linked to financial and investment conglomerate Alfa Group and a Russian business association, the Treasury Department said in a statement announcing the latest measures targeting Moscow’s financial elite over the war in Ukraine.
The Treasury said it was targeting four men who have served on the supervisory board of the Alfa Group — Petr Olegivich Aven, Mikhail Maratovich Fridman, German Borisovich Khan and Alexey Viktorovich Kuzmichev — one of Russia’s largest financial and investment conglomerates under sanctions against the country’s financial services sector. It also imposed sanctions on the Russian Association of Employers the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, it said. “Wealthy Russian elites should disabuse themselves of the notion that they can operate business as usual while the Kremlin wages war against the Ukrainian people,” Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said in the statement. Russia’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Russia and Ukraine Trade Aerial Attacks as Zelenskyy Makes Another Move against Corruption
Asharq Al Awsat/11 August 2023
Russia fired missiles at western Ukraine that killed an 8-year-old boy, local officials said, and drones that Russian officials blamed on the Ukrainian military targeted Moscow for a third straight day but reportedly didn’t cause significant damage. Also Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the firing of all the heads of regional military draft boards, part of his crackdown on corruption since the outbreak of Russia's war in Ukraine more than 17 months ago. The missile that killed the boy struck a house in western Ukraine’s Ivano-Frankivsk region, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Polish border, according to the office of Ukraine’s prosecutor general. But Ukrainian air defenses frustrated Russia’s daylight attack on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. Debris from intercepted missiles fell on residential areas of the city, including the premises of a children’s hospital, without causing casualties, local authorities said. Falling wreckage of missiles and drones has in the past killed people on the ground and damaged buildings in Kyiv. Meanwhile, a drone fell in western Moscow after Russian air defense systems stopped it, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. Nobody was hurt, he said.
The drone plunged onto the Karamyshevskaya Embankment, officials said, which is about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from a Moscow business district that was hit twice in previous drone incidents. Reports of drones in the area disrupted flights at two Russian airports. Flights later resumed at Vnukovo airport, one of Moscow’s busiest and at Kaluga airport, southwest of the city. It was the third day in a row that Vnukovo airport halted flights due to drone attacks. In Kyiv, Zelenskyy said he was firing draft board directors in all the Ukraine's regions. He said in a Telegram post that the jobs should go to war veterans, including those with injuries. The step was taken after Ukrainian security services presented details of 112 criminal cases against draft board officials suspected of taking bribes and engaging in corrupt practices, as well as 33 suspects who have yet to be charged. Zelenskyy previously fired senior officials suspected of corruption. That has sent a signal to Western allies providing Kyiv with tens of billions of dollars in military aid that Ukraine is serious about clamping down on graft, which has long plagued the country's military. The long-simmering issue of corruption in Ukraine’s draft system burst into the open last June when a media investigation was published about Odesa’s regional draft commissar Ievhen Borysov, igniting a scandal. The investigation reported on millions of dollars’ worth of real estate and luxury vehicles allegedly owned by Borysov’s family members in Spain. Borysov denied any wrongdoing, saying he had nothing to do with what his family purchased. After the report, Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation and its Security Service detained scores of draft board staff suspected of bribery and corruption.

West African nations prepare to send troops to restore democracy in Niger
Associated Press/11 August 2023
Tensions are escalating between Niger's new military regime and the West African regional bloc that has ordered the deployment of troops to restore Niger's flailing democracy. The ECOWAS bloc said on Thursday it had directed a "standby force" to restore constitutional order in Niger after its Sunday deadline to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum expired. Hours earlier, two Western officials told The Associated Press that Niger's junta had told a top U.S. diplomat they would kill Bazoum if neighboring countries attempted any military intervention to restore his rule.
It's unclear when or where the force will deploy and which countries from the 15-member bloc would contribute to it. Conflict experts say it would likely comprise some 5,000 troops led by Nigeria and could be ready within weeks.
After the ECOWAS meeting, neighboring Ivory Coast's president, Alassane Ouattara, said his country would take part in the military operation, along with Nigeria and Benin. "Ivory Coast will provide a battalion and has made all the financial arrangements ... We are determined to install Bazoum in his position. Our objective is peace and stability in the sub-region," Ouattara said on state television. Niger, an impoverished country of some 25 million people, was seen as one of the last hopes for Western nations to partner with in beating back a jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group that's ravaged the region. France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and together with other European partners had poured hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up its military. The junta responsible for spearheading the coup, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, has exploited anti-French sentiment among the population to shore up its support. On Thursday night after the summit, France's foreign ministry said it supported "all conclusions adopted." U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken said his country appreciated "the determination of ECOWAS to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis" and would hold the junta accountable for the safety and security of President Bazoum. However, he did not specify whether the U.S. supported the deployment of troops.
The mutinous soldiers that ousted Bazoum more than two weeks ago have entrenched themselves in power, appear closed to dialogue and have refused to release the president. Representatives of the junta told U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland of the threat to Bazoum's life during her visit to the country this week, a Western military official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. A U.S. official confirmed that account, also speaking on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to speak to the media. "The threat to kill Bazoum is grim," said Alexander Thurston, assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati. There have been unwritten rules until now about how overthrown presidents will be treated and violence against Bazoum would evoke some of the worst coups of the past, he said. Human Rights Watch said Friday that it had spoken to Bazoum, who said that his 20-year-old son was sick with a serious heart condition and has been refused access to a doctor. The president said he hasn't had electricity for nearly 10 days and isn't allowed to see family, friends or bring supplies into the house.
It's unclear if the threat on Bazoum's life would change ECOWAS' decision to intervene military. It might give them pause, or push the parties closer to dialogue, but the situation has entered uncharted territory, analysts say.
"An ECOWAS invasion to restore constitutional order into a country of Niger's size and population would be unprecedented," said Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Niger has a fairly large and well-trained army that, if it actively resisted an invasion, could pose significant problems for ECOWAS. This would be a very large and significant undertaking, he said. While the region oscillates between mediation and preparing for war, Nigeriens are suffering the impact of harsh economic and travel sanctions imposed by ECOWAS. Before the coup, more than 4 million Nigeriens were reliant on humanitarian assistance and the situation could become more dire, said Louise Aubin, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Niger.
"The situation is alarming. ... We'll see an exponential rise and more people needing more humanitarian assistance," she said, adding that the closure of land and air borders makes it hard to bring aid into the country and it's unclear how long the current stock will last.
Aid groups are battling restrictions on multiple fronts. ECOWAS sanctions have banned the movement of goods between member countries, making it hard to bring in materials. The World Food Program has some 30 trucks stuck at the Benin border unable to cross. Humanitarians are also trying to navigate restrictions within the country as the junta has closed the airspace, making it hard to get clearance to fly the humanitarian planes that transport goods and personnel to hard-hit areas. Flights are cleared on a case-by-case basis and there's irregular access to fuel, which disrupts aid operations, Aubin said. The U.N. has asked ECOWAS to make exceptions to the sanctions and is speaking to Niger's foreign ministry about doing the same within the country.

Tensions rise as West African nations prepare to send troops to restore democracy in Niger
AP/August 11, 2023
NIAMEY: Tensions are escalating between Niger’s new military regime and the West African regional bloc that has ordered the deployment of troops to restore Niger’s flailing democracy. The ECOWAS bloc said on Thursday it had directed a “standby force” to restore constitutional order in Niger after its Sunday deadline to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum expired. Hours earlier, two Western officials told The Associated Press that Niger’s junta had told a top US diplomat they would kill Bazoum if neighboring countries attempted any military intervention to restore his rule.
It’s unclear when or where the force will deploy and which countries from the 15-member bloc would contribute to it. Conflict experts say it would likely comprise some 5,000 troops led by Nigeria and could be ready within weeks. After the ECOWAS meeting, neighboring Ivory Coast’s president, Alassane Ouattara, said his country would take part in the military operation, along with Nigeria and Benin. “Ivory Coast will provide a battalion and has made all the financial arrangements ... We are determined to install Bazoum in his position. Our objective is peace and stability in the sub-region,” Ouattara said on state television. Niger, an impoverished country of some 25 million people, was seen as one of the last hopes for Western nations to partner with in beating back a jihadi insurgency linked to Al-Qaeda and the Daesh group that’s ravaged the region. France and the United States have more than 2,500 military personnel in Niger and together with other European partners had poured hundreds of millions of dollars into propping up its military.
The junta responsible for spearheading the coup, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, has exploited anti-French sentiment among the population to shore up its support. Nigeriens in the capital, Niamey, on Friday said ECOWAS isn’t in touch with the reality on the ground and shouldn’t intervene.
“It is our business, not theirs. They don’t even know the reason why the coup happened in Niger,” said Achirou Harouna Albassi, a resident. Bazoum was not abiding by the will of the people, he said. On Friday the African Union expressed strong support for ECOWAS’ decision and called on the junta to “urgently halt the escalation with the regional organization.” It also called for the immediate release of Bazoum. An African Union meeting to discuss the situation in Niger expected on Saturday was postponed. On Thursday night after the summit, France’s foreign ministry said it supported “all conclusions adopted.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said his country appreciated “the determination of ECOWAS to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis” and would hold the junta accountable for the safety and security of President Bazoum. However, he did not specify whether the US supported the deployment of troops. The mutinous soldiers that ousted Bazoum more than two weeks ago have entrenched themselves in power, appear closed to dialogue and have refused to release the president. Representatives of the junta told US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland of the threat to Bazoum’s life during her visit to the country this week, a Western military official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
A US official confirmed that account, also speaking on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to speak to the media.
“The threat to kill Bazoum is grim,” said Alexander Thurston, assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati. There have been unwritten rules until now about how overthrown presidents will be treated and violence against Bazoum would evoke some of the worst coups of the past, he said.
Human Rights Watch said Friday that it had spoken to Bazoum, who said that his 20-year-old son was sick with a serious heart condition and has been refused access to a doctor. The president said he hasn’t had electricity for nearly 10 days and isn’t allowed to see family, friends or bring supplies into the house.
It’s unclear if the threat on Bazoum’s life would change ECOWAS’ decision to intervene military. It might give them pause, or push the parties closer to dialogue, but the situation has entered uncharted territory, analysts say. “An ECOWAS invasion to restore constitutional order into a country of Niger’s size and population would be unprecedented,” said Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Niger has a fairly large and well-trained army that, if it actively resisted an invasion, could pose significant problems for ECOWAS. This would be a very large and significant undertaking, he said. While the region oscillates between mediation and preparing for war, Nigeriens are suffering the impact of harsh economic and travel sanctions imposed by ECOWAS. Before the coup, more than 4 million Nigeriens were reliant on humanitarian assistance and the situation could become more dire, said Louise Aubin, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Niger. “The situation is alarming. ... We’ll see an exponential rise and more people needing more humanitarian assistance,” she said, adding that the closure of land and air borders makes it hard to bring aid into the country and it’s unclear how long the current stock will last. Aid groups are battling restrictions on multiple fronts. ECOWAS sanctions have banned the movement of goods between member countries, making it hard to bring in materials. The World Food Program has some 30 trucks stuck at the Benin border unable to cross. Humanitarians are also trying to navigate restrictions within the country as the junta has closed the airspace, making it hard to get clearance to fly the humanitarian planes that transport goods and personnel to hard-hit areas.
Flights are cleared on a case-by-case basis and there’s irregular access to fuel, which disrupts aid operations, Aubin said. The UN has asked ECOWAS to make exceptions to the sanctions and is speaking to Niger’s foreign ministry about doing the same within the country.

Qaeda Assassinates Yemeni Senior Security Commander in Abyan
AFP/11 August 2023
A high-ranking security commander and his companions were assassinated in the Mudiyah district in the Abyan governorate in a suspected al-Qaeda attack. The roadside bomb detonated while the convoy was passing near the village, days after the launch of a new campaign targeting al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) terrorists. Local sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that an explosive device targeted the convoy of the commander of the Security Belt Forces in Abyan, Abdullatif al-Sayyid, killing him along with about five of his companions, including a tribal leader. The convoy was en route to an area with regular clashes with Qaeda fighters. Sayyid survived several previous attempts to assassinate him ordered by al-Qaeda members, who see him as one of their most essential enemies because of the war he waged against them years ago in Abyan. He headed the Security Belt Forces, tasked with protecting southern regions of Yemen. Abyan is a hotbed for extremists such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Security sources accused the organization's members of the operation after launching a new campaign to pursue the organization's terrorists in Wadi Omran. Sayyid survived several assassination attempts since he joined the government forces against Qaeda in the governorate. In 2021, Qaeda terrorists managed to infiltrate a funeral of one of Sayyid's relatives. They put explosives in drinking water bottles, killing dozens. In recent days, Qaeda has carried out several attacks against the security forces using improvised explosive devices and ambushes. Meanwhile, the Deputy head of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, mourned Sayyid and his companions, saying it was a significant loss for Yemen. Member of the Presidential Leadership Council, Abdul Rahman al-Mahrami, described the deceased as an exceptional leader and a courageous fighter, leading the soldiers on the battlefronts to defend the homeland. Mahrami also announced that Sayyid fought in various battlefronts in Abyan and led major offensives against extremists. Furthermore, Qaeda freed Akam Sofyol Anam, a Bangladeshi citizen working for the UN, after a year and a half abduction in Yemen. He was released after mediation led by tribal leaders in Abyan, where he was kidnapped with four Yemenis on their way to Aden, the interim capital.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 11-12/2023
The Massive Transformation of India and the Middle East
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/August 11, 2023
"Since 1947... Pakistan has initiated three full-fledged wars with India.... In addition, Pakistan has consistently utilized cross-border terrorism in India as an official instrument of state policy, including the 26/11 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people.... Pakistan's military and ISI spy agency also continues to support the Taliban, the Haqqani group, Lashkar-eTaiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, and other affiliated militant groups in Afghanistan to undermine U.S. military operations and maintain its strategic influence there." — Hindu American Foundation, August 2019.
According to the Hindu American Foundation, "India is one of the few countries in the world where Baha'is and Jews have never faced religious persecution."
India first faced Islamist violence, dating as far back as the 8th century to the time of the Muslim Mughal invasions and rule through the mid-19th century. Countless Hindus and other non-Muslims were murdered or forcibly converted to Islam.
"[Historian Mahomed] Ferishtha lists several occasions when... sultans in central India... (1347-1528) killed a hundred thousand Hindus, which they set as a minimum goal whenever they felt like "punishing" the Hindus.... Prof. K.S. Lal once estimated that the Indian population declined by 50 million under the Sultanate.... research into the magnitude of the damage Islam did to India is yet to start in earnest..." — Koenraad Elst, The International Raoul Wallenberg Foundation, September 2, 2011.
"Apart from actual killing, millions of Hindus disappeared by way of enslavement. After every conquest by a Muslim invader, slave markets in Bagdad and Samarkand were flooded with Hindus.... [O]ne cold night in the reign of Timur Lenk (1398-99), a hundred thousand Hindu slaves died [on the Hindu Kush, "Hindu-killer"] while on transport to Central Asia." — Koenraad Elst, The International Raoul Wallenberg Foundation, September 2, 2011.
Islamist violence against Hindus and other non-Muslims who enjoy freedom of speech is an ongoing problem.
Ethnic cleansing against the indigenous Hindu people of Kashmir was one of the occurrences that drastically changed the demographic balance in the region. Starting in 1989, more than 350,000 Kashmiri Hindus were driven from their ancestral homeland in the Jammu and Kashmir region by a radical insurgency orchestrated and funded by Pakistan.
Where are the indigenous non-Muslim communities in what is today called the "Muslim world"? Where is their presence?
Today's "Muslim world", which used to be non-Muslim before Islamic invasions, conquests and massacres, is now demographically transformed. The indigenous non-Muslim communities there are now either dying minorities or extinct.
Today, the only religion that has freedom in Afghanistan is Islam.
Turkey, the site that has been called Anatolia (a Greek word meaning "the east, sunrise, place from where the sun rises") for millennia, was the seat of the Christian Byzantine Empire. For centuries, Islamic invaders attacked Anatolia; in 1453, Muslim Turks from Central Asia captured Constantinople, now Istanbul. Today, Christians comprise only 0.1 percent of Turkey's population.
Prior to the Islamic invasions, most of the entire Middle East and North Africa – countries such as Syria, Algeria, Egypt and Iraq -- used to be majority-Christian. Today, indigenous Christians and other minorities -- such as Assyrians, Yazidis and Alawites -- in almost every majority-Muslim country where they remain, are severely persecuted.
The Muslim riots or other acts of inter-religious violence in much of the Middle East, as well as Pakistan's terrorism and border disputes with India, can probably best be understood within the historical context of jihad. For centuries, jihadists have violently targeted and persecuted non-Muslims in the region. The West might do well to distinguish between destabilizing forces that create persecution, violence and refugees, and stabilizing forces, such as India that, despite their imperfections, still promote pluralism, religious freedom and security, and function as a home for all who are oppressed.
On July 31, Islamists unleashed "a pre-planned attack... against thousands of Hindus" in India. The attack, on a Hindu pilgrimage made to "revive holy Hindu sites and Hindu religious tourism," left six dead and around 60 injured. Pictured: A Rapid Action Force member patrols along a street of burnt shops and homes in Nuh, in India's Haryana state, on August 2, 2023, following the attack by Islamists. (Photo by Jalees Andrabi/AFP via Getty Images)
In July, violent jihad– holy war in the service of Islam – reached two groups of Hindus in South Asia. The first attack involved the destruction of the religious heritage of Hindus in Pakistan. The other attack, in India, consisted of an Islamist raid on a Hindu pilgrimage. The assault killed at least six people and injured dozens. In the first attack, on July 16, a 150-year-old Hindu temple in Karachi was "razed to the ground." According to the Pakistani newspaper, Dawn:
"[T]he operation took place while the area was without electricity late on Friday night. That's when the diggers and a bulldozer arrived to do their work.
"The residents have also reported that they saw a police mobile there to provide 'cover' to the men operating the machines."
The second attack, on July 31, Islamists unleashed "a pre-planned attack... against thousands of Hindus" in India. The attack, on a Hindu pilgrimage made to "revive holy Hindu sites and Hindu religious tourism," left six dead and around 60 injured.
A report in the Indian media outlet, OpIndia, noted "unbridled violence against [the] Hindu devotees."
"So far, over 100 FIRs [first information reports] have been filed, 202 people have been arrested and the death count stands at 6. The Islamists, in a pre-planned attack, hurled stones at the devotees, fired shots, and burnt cars, creating hostage-like situations where several thousand devotees were trapped in a Temple, only to be rescued hours after the Islamists were raining down bullets on the temple and more."
Such jihadist incidents in India are often either ignored by Western mainstream media or blamed on India or Hindu people without taking into account either the motives of the perpetrators, or the importance of India's religious diversity and its secular democracy – both of which exist nowhere else in the region.
Islamists, according to the Indian media, injured, robbed and held hostage Hindu people:
"[R]ioters started pelting stones at them from buildings. Then they [Hindus] saw a mob of Islamists charging towards them while raising slogans of Allah-Hu-Akbar. The rioters attacked them with swords and with the aim to kill."
Other Indian reports noted that 22-year-old Abhishek Chauhan, along with four others, were killed in the violence that erupted. "His cousin, Mahesh (25), who accompanied him, said he saw Abhishek get shot."
"Just as we came out of the Shiv Mandir in Nalhar, we saw a mob, armed with swords, guns and stones, running towards the temple. They started beating people, firing and setting cars on fire. A bullet hit my brother and he fell. I cried for help, but there was no one around there... I was trying to get Abhishek somewhere safe, but a man with a sword slashed his neck and fled."
According to another report:
"There were also allegations by some locals that there are speculations that some women were dragged to the fields and raped by the Islamists and murdered. "
According to a report published in the Hindi daily Jagran:
"[M]ore than fifty rioters barged into the hospital and assaulted the patients, health workers and doctors after segregating them on the basis of their religion. They assaulted Hindu doctors and victims after separating them from Muslims... A doctor's three-year-old daughter was also beaten with sticks."
This deadly attack is typical of the Islamist civilizational war – both culturally and militarily – that India has been enduring for decades. The Hindu American Foundation relates:
"Since 1947... Pakistan has initiated three full-fledged wars with India and a smaller incursion into Indian territory in Kargil in 1999. In addition, Pakistan has consistently utilized cross-border terrorism in India as an official instrument of state policy, including the 26/11 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people, the attack on an Indian air force base in Kashmir in 2016 that left 17 Indian Army personnel dead, and the 2019 attack that killed 40 members of the Central Reserve Police Force in Pulwama district of Kashmir, to name a few.
"Pakistan's military and ISI spy agency also continues to support the Taliban, the Haqqani group, Lashkar-eTaiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, and other affiliated militant groups in Afghanistan to undermine U.S. military operations and maintain its strategic influence there."
Despite these provocations, India remains a multi-religious and multicultural, secular democracy. It is home to the vast majority of the world's Hindus and has sizable Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, Jain, and Sikh populations, as well as to small but significant Baha'i, Jewish and Zoroastrian populations.
Hindus, a widely diverse populace, comprise a little less than 80% of India's 1.3 billion people, whereas religious minorities encompass more than 20% of the population. In addition, India has the world's second-largest Muslim population (approximately 176 million or 14.4%).
According to the Hindu American Foundation, "India is one of the few countries in the world where Baha'is and Jews have never faced religious persecution."
India first faced Islamist violence, dating as far back as the 8th century to the time of the Muslim Mughal invasions and rule through the mid-19th century. Countless Hindus and other non-Muslims were murdered or forcibly converted to Islam. Hindu women were raped and turned into sex-slaves. Many Muslims in India today are descendants of those Islamized Hindus.
Flemish researcher Koenraad Elst wrote:
"There is no official estimate of the total death toll of Hindus at the hands of Islam.... [Historian Mahomed] Ferishtha lists several occasions when the Bahmani sultans in central India (1347-1528) killed a hundred thousand Hindus, which they set as a minimum goal whenever they felt like 'punishing' the Hindus.... Prof. K.S. Lal once estimated that the Indian population declined by 50 million under the Sultanate, but that would be hard to substantiate; research into the magnitude of the damage Islam did to India is yet to start in earnest...
"Apart from actual killing, millions of Hindus disappeared by way of enslavement. Slaves were likely to die of hardship, e.g. the mountain range Hindu Koh, 'Indian mountain', was renamed Hindu Kush, 'Hindu-killer', when one cold night in the reign of Timur Lenk (1398-99), a hundred thousand Hindu slaves died there while on transport to Central Asia. Though Timur conquered Delhi from another Muslim ruler, he recorded in his journal that he made sure his pillaging soldiers spared the Muslim quarter, while in the Hindu areas, they took 'twenty slaves each'. Hindu slaves were converted to Islam, and when their descendants gained their freedom, they swelled the numbers of the Muslim community. It is a cruel twist of history that the Muslims who forced Partition on India were partly the progeny of Hindus enslaved by Islam."
Islamist violence against Hindus and other non-Muslims who enjoy freedom of speech is an ongoing problem. In 2017, Muslim mobs attacked the Hindu community in West Bengal after news circulated that a Hindu high school student shared an allegedly blasphemous post about Islam on Facebook. The mob violence lasted for days and led to the destruction of several dozen Hindu-owned shops and homes, as well as police vehicles and government property. Several Hindus were also injured and a 65-year-old man, Kartik Ghosh, was stabbed to death by the rampaging mob.
Ethnic cleansing against the indigenous Hindu people of Kashmir was one of the occurrences that drastically changed the demographic balance in the region. Starting in 1989, more than 350,000 Kashmiri Hindus were driven from their ancestral homeland in the Jammu and Kashmir region by a radical insurgency orchestrated and funded by Pakistan. These Hindus still have not returned to the Kashmir Valley.
Despite these assaults, India, a diverse mosaic of multiple religions, ethnicities, and languages, has, according to the Hindu American Foundation, served as a refuge for persecuted religious groups or those fleeing violence:
"Some Jewish communities in India trace their roots back over 2500 years, while others over the subsequent millennia, fleeing persecution from various parts of the Near and Middle East.
"Zoroastrians arrived around 700 AD (they're now known as Parsis and Iranis in India), fleeing persecution in their native land of Persia, and integrated seamlessly into Indian society, while practicing their faith fully.
"The Dalai Lama and Tibetan Buddhists fled to India after escaping Chinese oppression and established the Tibetan government in exile in the northern city of Dharamsala.
"Many Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar and Afghan Muslims have found a home in India as well.
"Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and Afghan Hindus have trickled into India for decades to escape religious persecution. They have struggled to obtain refugee status or any type of long-term legal status in India, preventing them from accessing basic resources or employment. The current government in India, however, has made it a priority to grant legal resident status and citizenship to those fleeing religious persecution and seeking refuge in India.
"Ahmadiyya Muslims, who are outlawed in Pakistan, are free to worship, construct mosques, and propagate their faith free from government intrusion. The Sunni Waqf Board of India (a private religious body), however, does not consider them Muslim, and therefore does not grant Ahmadiyya membership or benefits of their services."
The cultural differences between India and Pakistan and the rest of the Muslim world become even more stark when compared in terms of religious freedoms. Where are the indigenous non-Muslim communities in what is today called the "Muslim world'? Where is their presence?
Today's "Muslim world", which used to be non-Muslim before Islamic invasions, conquests and massacres, is now demographically transformed. The indigenous non-Muslim communities there are now either dying minorities or extinct.
The Jewish people were expelled from Arab countries and Iran mainly after Israel's founding in 1948.
In Afghanistan, before the Islamic invasion and takeover that began in the 7th century, multiple religions were practiced such as Buddhism, Hinduism and Zoroastrianism. Today, the only religion that has freedom in Afghanistan is Islam.
Turkey, the site that has been called Anatolia (a Greek word meaning "the east, sunrise, place from where the sun rises") for millennia, was the seat of the Christian Byzantine Empire. For centuries, Islamic invaders attacked Anatolia; in 1453, Muslim Turks from Central Asia captured Constantinople, now Istanbul. Today, Christians comprise only 0.1 percent of Turkey's population.
Prior to the Islamic invasions, most of the entire Middle East and North Africa – countries such as Syria, Algeria, Egypt and Iraq -- used to be majority-Christian. Today, indigenous Christians and other minorities -- such as Assyrians, Yazidis and Alawites -- in almost every majority-Muslim country where they remain, are severely persecuted.
Zoroastrianism, founded in ancient Persia during the sixth century BCE, under the Sassanian Empire, was, until the Arab Muslim invasion in the seventh century, the state's official religion. The rise of Islam in Persia led to severe persecution and the Zoroastrians' demographic collapse. Today, in Iran, they are a tiny, oppressed minority. More than a thousand years of Islamist persecution have resulted in gradual disappearance of Zoroastrianism from its homeland.
The Baha'is in Iran are also relentlessly persecuted. The Bahai International Community reports:
"Baha'is, who are Iran's largest non-Muslim religious minority, are routinely arrested, detained, and imprisoned. They are barred from holding government jobs, and their shops and other enterprises are routinely closed or discriminated against by officials at all levels. Young Baha'is are prevented from attending university, and those volunteer Baha'i educators who have sought to fill that gap have been arrested and imprisoned."
The Muslim riots or other acts of inter-religious violence in much of the Middle East, as well as Pakistan's terrorism and border disputes with India, can probably best be understood within the historical context of jihad. For centuries, jihadists have violently targeted and persecuted non-Muslims in the region. The West might do well to distinguish between destabilizing forces that create persecution, violence and refugees, and stabilizing forces, such as India that, despite their imperfections, still promote pluralism, religious freedom and security, and function as a home for all who are oppressed.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, a research fellow for the Philos Project, and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

 Israel and Quebec: A comparative perspective … The differences far exceed the similarities in the Quebec and Israel majority–minority cases/
إسرائيل وكيبيك: منظور مقارن … الاختلافات تفوق بكثير أوجه التشابه في قضيتي الأغلبية
والأقلية في كيبيك وإسرائيل
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/121080/121080/
August 11/2023
Dr. Mordechai Nisan/Israel National News/August 11/2023
Language and Bilingualism
The majority – minority equation is a central axiom for both Israel and Canada. The Jews are an 80 per-cent majority in Israel, with Arabs and other communities the remaining 20 per-cent proportion; the French in Canada as a whole number slightly more than 20 per-cent, while in Quebec the French constitute over 70 per-cent of the total population. That figure fits their proportion in the greater metropolitan area of Montréal.
Both Quebec and Israel are the product of a distinct identity and historic struggles. They invest cultural and financial resources to promote their national languages – French in Quebec, Hebrew in Israel. While Israel's predicament is manifestly existential, that of Quebec is political in essence.
Both the Jews of Israel and the French in Canada - not only in Quebec – are part of a broader linguistic space globally. Jewish diaspora communities are extensively involved in the national drama of building the Jewish homeland; and the international francophonie organization of 54 members resonates with vibrancy and scope to invigorate the surviving French fact of la Nouvelle France in Canada.
Statistics demonstrate that two-thirds of people in Greater Montreal speak French as their primary language, while 85 per-cent of all residents are fluent in French. Clearly, Montreal is an exceedingly and noteworthy bilingual city. Indeed, for an Anglophone to be fluent in French should be a status symbol. For a Francophone to be fluent in English is an all-embracing North American necessity and experience.
Sanctions and Costs of Bill 96
What is the proper balance between the collective rights of the French population and the individual rights of citizens and residents to employ and be educated in English? Will Bill 96 inhibit potential immigrants choosing Quebec as their residence, and will it damage Quebec's relations with companies, both Canadian and foreign, because of French linguistic requirements? The new bill may catalyze an exit of many Anglophones to Ontario. Is this the goal of the Quebec government?
When the political controversy regarding Quebec separatism erupted in the 1970s, hundreds of thousands left, businesses relocated elsewhere. Toronto gained economic and demographic ground at Montreal's expense.
The interests of Quebec are hardly less important than the values it seeks to promote. Indeed, Quebec's minister in charge of French, Jean-François Roberge, acknowledged a transition period as public services adjust to Bill 96. Tens of townships have declared that their practice of bilingualism will continue despite the unilingual provisions demanded by the new Bill. Thus, the rhythm of life in Quebec may blunt the letter of the law.
Arabs and Arabic in Israel
In 2018, the Knesset in Jerusalem passed the Nation-State Law that defined Israel – as in the Proclamation of the State in 1948 – as a Jewish state. While Arabic enjoys a special linguistic status and publicly funded education, the country resonates with an indisputable Jewish national character.
The Arab minority in Israel has promoted its integral Palestinian Arab identity unencumbered by the official Jewish identity of the country. As the seasoned Member of Knesset Ahmed Tibi told President Rivlin in 2019: "We [the Arabs] are the owners of this land." Polls show that approximately 70 per-cent of the Arab citizenry reject Israel's right to maintain a Jewish majority. Widespread violence against Jewish persons and properties is a social scourge, no less the role of Arab criminal gangs murdering fellow Arabs, 135 persons so far in 2023.
Although trust is often absent, the pattern of daily life in Israel offers nexuses in the work environment and public space for Jews and Arabs to co-exist amicably.
Protecting the Majority
The differences far exceed the similarities in the Quebec and Israel majority–minority cases.
The English and Allophones do not oppose a French majority and the promotion of the French language in Quebec; the Arabs, learn Hebrew, but demand that Arabic be equal in status.
The English acknowledge the historic primacy of les Québécois de souche (descendants of original French colonists); the Arabs negate the ancient roots of Jews in the land.
The non-francophone demonstrate with decorum against Québécois ethno-nationalism and a unilingual French policy; Arabs provocatively raise Palestinian Arab flags and spout anti-Zionist tropes against the Jewish state.
Quebec promotes inclusion for all inhabitants; Israel offers equal rights, higher education and professional employment to the Arabs, but retains the predominant Jewish ethos in symbols and substance to define the reconstituted state of Israel.
In Quebec, the majority French have been flirting with the separatist option to secede from Canada. In Israel, the Arab minority, in its militant refusal to assume the obligations of military or civilian service, has set its Palestinian Arab national sights riveted to some form of de facto separation from Official Israel. The spirit of the sly slogan of "a state of its citizens" as opposed to "the state of the Jewish people" could be a dangerous, insidious step toward subverting the Jewish state from within.
The Israelis in the Middle East are a combative people; the Québécois in North America are an embattled people. Their respective reactions may at times seem excessive to people who are unable to comprehend the anxiety that fills their hearts.
John Stuart Mill had praised "the admixture of nationalities, and the blending of their attributes and peculiarities in a common union." His words fit the charm of Montreal, the good nature of Quebec, and the civility of Canada. Israel is navigating a very different ship of state whose story eludes forecasting the future.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/375397

The We’ve Got to Do Something Syndrome
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 11/2023
Is the Sahel region in West Africa becoming a new hub for international terrorism, as the badlands of Afghanistan were almost three decades ago? Last week, the question forced its way into global policymakers' circles with the military coup in Niamey, the capital of Niger, an impoverished state in that region.
Commander of the Presidential Guard Gen. Abdouramane Tchiani put the “democratically elected” President Mohamed Bazoum under arrest in the presidential palace and declared himself the new ruler, continuing the series of recent cops that have led to military rule in neighboring Guinea Conakry, Burkina Faso and Mali.
The alarm bells sounded by the coup broke the summer torpor of Western chanceries with the usual “we’ve got to do something” slogan leading to the usual hastily designed reactive measures.
French President Emmanuel Macron did his “we’ve got something do to” bit by ordering his 1,500 troops based in Niger to be put on full alert as his Foreign Minister Catherine Colona rushed to reassure everyone that France wouldn’t use force to restore its protégé Bazoum to power. Similar reassurances came from Germany and Italy which also have token military forces in Niger. The Biden administration in Washington, having long claimed that it wouldn’t neglect Africa as Donald Trump had done, did its own “we’ve got to do something” number by sending Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to Niamey for what she described as “ a harsh but serious”, and in reality useless, conversation with some of the jackboots.
The nations forming the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) also did their own “we’ve got to do something” bit by sending a high-level delegation to Niamey to persuade the generals to be good boys and return to the barracks. The coup leader refused to see them and they reacted by setting an ultimatum after which they said they would use the military option. However, when the ultimatum expired they said they would prefer the diplomatic option. For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin did his own “we’ve got to do something” by having local agents distribute Russian flags and envelopes filled with cash among the rent-a-mob crowds supporting the coup in Niamey. That was followed by rulers that Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s fried-cum-foe has phoned the generals to offer support from his Wagner mercenaries who did the same for coup leaders in Mozambique, Libya, Central African Republic, and more recently Mali.
But is all this much ado about very little?
Western expression of support for “democratically elected leaders” has seldom been more than diplomatic posturing. The mere holding of elections doesn’t turn a society into a democracy. Even then there are quite a few democratically elected undemocratic leaders. For decades Hessen Haber and Idris Debby in Chad, two from many similar rulers, were democratically elected and backed by France without anyone daring to describe them as paragons of democracy.
The Western idea of a one-size-fits-all is an illusion.
Before the colonial era, African societies decided who holds power through tribal warfare with the winner acquiring legitimacy through its victory. The colonial powers wielded power through a combination of force, bribery, and co-optation of the more ambitious local elites.
With the Berlin Conference of 1884 and the division of Africa, colonial powers created artificial putative nation-states built around locally recruited military units in the service of the imperial powers. When given independence these new “nations” contained tribes with long histories of hostility towards one another and little sense of statehood. Paradoxically it is, at times delayed, resentment of the colonial past, that is remolding some of those countries, including Niger, into nation-states in the more or less Westphalia sense of the term. After independence that resentment, or ressentiment in French, led many of the newly created African states into the Soviet orbit during the Cold War. That option expired with the fall of the USSR and more than a decade of Russian uncertainty about its own future. Under Putin, Russia is trying to recover part of its lost influence, notably in Africa.
Should the West worry about that?
Not necessarily.
The USSR reaped no benefits from spending money and prestige to prop up African dictators who continued to talk of socialism but put their stolen money in Western banks. Today, Putin’s Russia is even less likely to do any better. Apart from wheat and corn, it has nothing to sell that Africans want to buy while Africans have nothing to offer that Russians might wish to purchase. Worse still for Putin, Wagner has turned local African opinion against Russia in many places including the Central African Republic, Libya, Mozambique, and more recently even Mali.
As for the growing jihadi threat, letting Putin do the fighting on behalf of the African governments may not be a bad option. The French fought the jihadis in Mali and prevented them from entering the capital Bamako and seizing power only to end up as a target for hatred of the very rulers they had saved from annihilation. (The US had a similar experience in Afghanistan where the remnants of the made-in-America regime of Hamed Karzai and Ashraf Ghani now led the anti-American chorus.) Empire-building was a bad idea from the beginning. Adam Smith warned against it in his 3waelth of Nations” where he showed that slave labor and captive markets while benefiting some capitalists, was bad for capitalism as a whole as it falsified the rules of the free market.
The post-colonial history of Africa shows that military coup is the most frequent means of changing governments in almost all countries of the back continent. All 54 African states have experienced at least one of the successful or abortive 151 coups the continent has had since 1960. The only exception is South Africa. (Egypt had its coup in 1952). Trying to impose the Western democratic model on African states by force hasn’t worked in at least a dozen countries. Sanctions don’t work either; they inflict suffering on the poorest masses without affecting the ruling cliques. Many years ago I visited an African “republic” under severe international sanctions to interview its president. The dinner he offered us was truly five-star while the people of his capital, in ruins after a bloody civil war, were starving.
Military coups do pose a problem. But contrary to the French Cartesian illusion, not every problem has a ready solution. And when there is no ready solution wisdom advises patience, allowing people to do their mistakes and learn from them, not theatrical “we’ve got to do something” gesticulations that discredit those who make them.

Why Trump Is So Hard to Beat
Nate Cohn/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 11/2023
In the half century of modern presidential primaries, no candidate who led his or her nearest rival by at least 20 points at this stage has ever lost a party nomination.
Today, Donald J. Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis is nearly twice as large: 37 points, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of the likely Republican primary electorate released Monday morning.
Of course, there’s still plenty of time left before the Iowa caucuses in January. The candidates haven’t even set foot on a debate stage. And while no candidate has ever lost a nomination with so much support, no candidate with so much support has faced so many criminal indictments and investigations, either.
But even if it might be a mistake to call Mr. Trump “inevitable,” the Times/Siena data suggests that he commands a seemingly unshakable base of loyal supporters, representing more than one-third of the Republican electorate. Alone, their support is not enough for Mr. Trump to win the primary. But it is large enough to make him extremely hard to defeat — perhaps every bit as hard as the historical record suggests. Here’s what we know about the depth of the support for — and opposition to — Mr. Trump from our poll, and why it’s so hard to beat the former president.
The MAGA base, defined
It’s populist. It’s conservative. It’s blue collar. It’s convinced the nation is on the verge of catastrophe. And it’s exceptionally loyal to Donald Trump.
As defined here, members of Mr. Trump’s MAGA base represent 37 percent of the Republican electorate. They “strongly” support him in the Republican primary and have a “very favorable” view of him.
The MAGA base doesn’t support Mr. Trump in spite of his flaws. It supports him because it doesn’t seem to believe he has flaws.
Zero percent — not a single one of the 319 respondents in this MAGA category — said he had committed serious federal crimes. A mere 2 percent said he “did something wrong” in his handling of classified documents. More than 90 percent said Republicans needed to stand behind him in the face of the investigations.
Perhaps Mr. DeSantis or another Republican will peel away a few of these voters, but realistically this group isn’t going anywhere, maybe not even if Mr. Trump winds up being imprisoned. This group is probably about the same as the voters — 37 percent — who supported Mr. Trump in the polls on Super Tuesday in 2016. It’s probably about the same as the group of Republicans — 41 percent — who supported him at his low point in January, in the wake of last November’s midterm elections.
This is an impressive base of support, but it still is not quite a majority of the Republican primary electorate. Most of the Republican electorate either doesn’t strongly support Mr. Trump in the primary or doesn’t support him at all. Most don’t have a “very favorable” view of the former president, either. In theory, it means there’s an opening for another candidate.
But with so much of the G.O.P. electorate seemingly devoted to Mr. Trump, the path to defeating him is exceptionally narrow. It requires a candidate to consolidate the preponderance of the rest of the Republican electorate, and the rest of the Republican electorate is not easy to unify.
New York Times/Siena College poll of the likely Republican electorate, July 23-27 “Persuadable” refers to Republicans who remain open to supporting Trump; the “Not open to Trump” group is not considering him.
There’s the group of voters who may not love Mr. Trump, but who remain open to him in the primary and in some cases support him over the alternatives. It’s a group that’s broadly reflective of the Republican electorate as a whole: It’s somewhat conservative, somewhat favorable toward Mr. Trump, somewhat favorable toward Mr. DeSantis, and split on whether to support the former president, at least for now.
There’s also a second group of voters who probably won’t support Mr. Trump. They represent about one-quarter of the primary electorate and they say they’re not considering him in the primary. These voters tend to be educated, affluent, moderate, and they’re often more than just Trump skeptics. A majority of these voters view him unfavorably, say he’s committed crimes and don’t even back him in the general election against President Biden, whether that’s because they actually prefer Mr. Biden or simply wouldn’t vote.
These two groups of voters don’t just differ on Mr. Trump; they disagree on the issues as well. Mr. Trump’s skeptics support additional military and economic aid to Ukraine, and comprehensive immigration reform, while they oppose a six-week abortion ban. The persuadable voters, on the other hand, take the opposite view on all of those issues.
Yet to beat Mr. Trump, a candidate must somehow hold nearly all of these voters together. It would be hard for any candidate to consolidate the fractious opposition to Mr. Trump. It has certainly been hard for Mr. DeSantis, the Florida governor. At the start of the year, it seemed he figured out how to win both conservative and moderate skeptics of Mr. Trump by focusing on a new set of issues — the fight against “woke” and freedom from coronavirus restrictions. This seemed to excite establishment donors and even some independents every bit as much as conservative activists and Fox News hosts.
It hasn’t turned out that way. The fight against woke has offered few opportunities to attack Mr. Trump — strange social media videos notwithstanding — while Covid has faded from political relevance.
Without these issues, Mr. DeSantis has become a very familiar kind of conservative Republican. As with the Ted Cruz campaign in 2016, Mr. DeSantis has run to Mr. Trump’s right on every issue. In doing so, he has struggled to appeal to the moderate voters who represent the natural base of a viable opposition to Mr. Trump. Mr. DeSantis is faring poorly enough among Trump skeptics to give other candidates an opening, much as Mr. Cruz’s conservative brand created a space for the ultimately nonviable John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush candidacies. Among the “Never Trump” group of voters who don’t support Mr. Trump against President Biden in a hypothetical general election rematch, Mr. DeSantis only narrowly leads Mr. Christie, 16 percent to 13 percent.

Turkiye’s balancing act between Hamas, Fatah and Israel
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/August 11, 2023
Turkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have held significant meetings in the past few weeks on issues that pose threats to their interests and to the stability of the region. While all eyes were fixed on the Ukraine-Russia war and the peace summit in Jeddah, two crucial meetings took place in Ankara and Cairo with the aim ofrestoring Palestinian unity.
On July 26, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the presidential palace. The talks took place behind closed doors, and no details were made public. In late July, senior figures from the Palestinian factions met in Cairo to discuss Palestinian national unity and a comprehensive vision toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The last time the leaders of Fatah and Hamas met publicly was in June 2022 in Algeria during that country’s Independence Day celebrations, their first encounter in more than five years. The meeting in Egypt was part of an attempt to find common ground between the rival Palestinian groups, but it is viewed as another failure— just like more than dozens of similar attempts since 2007, including the talks in In Algeria. The main disagreement between the two leaders is over the strategy for achieving their common purpose for Palestinians, and their rivalry for power. Both are engaged in a struggle to win the hearts and minds of not only the Palestinians, but also regional states.
Unity among Palestinian entities and a balance between Palestine and Israel requires a delicate balancing act, fine diplomacy and cooperation from regional countries. Palestine represents significant common ground for Turkiye and Egypt, two regional states that have reconciled after decade-long tension in relations. Ankara and Cairo consider the Palestinian issue and the resolution of the Palestine-Israeli conflict to be a shared objective and a common vision for regional stability. Although Palestine has occasionally been an area of competition for regional influence between Ankara and Cairo, especially at times of antagonism between them, it also represents the most important aspects of their regional cooperation.
It is not only Palestinians who are frustrated with the lack of political progress and the failure to establish national unity; regional states such as Turkiye are trying to carve out a role for themselves as mediators between rival Palestinian groups, and are uneasy over the continuing rift that benefits no one but only Israel. Ankara and Cairo consider the Palestinian issue and the resolution of the Palestine-Israeli conflict to be a shared objective and a common vision.
In the delicate balancing act between Palestinian groups and Israel, Ankara has even rejected Tel Aviv’s request to deport Hamas leaders living in Turkiye, despite the restoration of diplomatic ties between the countries. Israeli officials have been insisting on this since 2020, and the latest demand came when Defense Minister Benny Gantz visited Turkiye in October. Ankara has repeatedly stated that it does not consider Hamas to be a terrorist group, and would not expel its members from Turkiye. Moreover, Ankara suggested that it aimed to lead efforts to unify Hamas with Fatah, rather than exclude the former from the process. In the early 2000s, Turkiye initiated the Ankara Forum as a confidence-building mechanism between Palestine and Israel.
A day after Abbas’s meeting with Erdogan and Haniyeh in Ankara, Benjamin Netanyahu was due to travel to Turkiye in the first visit to Ankara by an Israeli prime minister since 2008. The trip was postponed after he underwent surgery to implant a cardiac pacemaker, and Israel remains roiled by protests over contentious judicial reforms. It is still not clear if or when the visit will take place, but if it does it is likely to consolidate Turkish-Israeli normalization, which is viewed by Ankara as a positive development in serving the Palestinian cause.
Unlike Fatah, Hamas spoke out against the Ankara-Tel Aviv rapprochement and was uneasy about Ankara's statement that Palestinian parties were in favor of it. In contrast, a few days after Turkiye and Israel said they would restore full diplomatic relations and reappoint ambassadors for the first time since 2018, Abbas paid a visit to Ankara that signaled Fatah’s positive stance towards the normalization.
Praising the Turkish leadership’s efforts to unite Palestinian groups, Abbas has even said the Palestinians will name a square in Ramallah after Erdogan “in appreciation of his big and important role” in supporting the Palestinians, who pin hopes on him to heal the Palestinian internal rift. There are hopes that normalization of ties between Ankara and Tel Aviv will push the former to play a bigger mediation role between Hamas and Israel — similar to that of Egypt and Qatar — on many issues, most notably prisoner swaps and economic incentives for people in the Gaza Strip. It could also ease potential future tension that could lead to a new military escalation between Israel and Hamas.
With the current momentum, Ankara is likely to keep its relations balanced with the parties to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, while also balancing between Fatah and Hamas. Ankara continues to insist on the two-state solution, while it is progressing in relations with Israel at the same time on several issues, economic, energy and political.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz