Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 04-05/2023
3 years after port blast, intrigue foils probe and even death toll is disputed
Associated Press/August 04, 2023
Three years after Beirut's massive port blast, attempts to prosecute those responsible are mired in political intrigue, the final death toll remains disputed and many Lebanese have less faith than ever in their disintegrating state institutions.
As the country marks the anniversary Friday, relatives of some of those killed are still struggling to get their loved ones recognized as blast victims, reflecting the ongoing chaos since the Aug. 4, 2020 explosion. The blast killed at least 218 people, according to an Associated Press count, wounded more than 6,000, devastated large swaths of Beirut and caused billions of dollars in damages. Among those not recognized as a blast victim is a five-month-old boy, Qusai Ramadan, a child of Syrian refugees. His parents say he was killed when the explosion toppled the ceiling and a cupboard in his hospital room, crushing him. The parents have been unable to get the infant added to the official death list, a move that could have made them eligible for future compensation. They accused the authorities of discriminating against victims who are not Lebanese. Meanwhile, the blast anniversary brought renewed calls for an international investigation of those responsible, including top officials who allowed hundreds of tons of highly flammable ammonium nitrate, a material used in fertilizers, to be improperly stored for years at a warehouse in the port.
Lebanese and international organizations, survivors and families of victims sent such an appeal to the U.N. Rights Council, saying that "on third anniversary of the explosion, we are no closer to justice and accountability for the catastrophe."Maan, a Lebanese group advocating for victims and survivors, put the death toll at 236, significantly higher than the government's count of 191. The authorities stopped counting the dead a month after the blast, even as some of the severely wounded died in the subsequent period. Among those listed by Maan Initiative is Qusai, the Syrian infant. Qusai had been undergoing treatment for a severe liver condition and was transferred to a government hospital near the port about a week before the explosion. Hospital staff said the infant needed a liver transplant and was in critical condition. On the day of the blast, Qusai's aunt, Noura Mohammed, was sitting at his bedside while his mother rested at home. The aunt said the staff ordered everyone to evacuate immediately after the explosion, and that she found the infant dead, crushed by fallen debris, when she returned. Hospital officials said Qusai died an hour after the explosion, with the death certificate listing cardio respiratory arrest as the cause. The family buried him a day later. "We asked them (the authorities) to register my son among the victims of the blast," his mother, Sarah Jassem Mohammed, said in a recent interview in a small tent in an orchard in the northern Lebanese village of Markabta where she lives with her husband, two sons and one daughter. "They refused." Lebanon is home to more than 1 million Syrian refugees, who make about 20% of the country's population. A Lebanese group, the Anti-Racism Movement, said that among those killed in the blast were at least 76 non-Lebanese citizens, including 52 Syrians. Meanwhile, many in Lebanon have been losing faith in the domestic investigation and some have started filing cases abroad against companies suspected of bringing in the ammonium nitrate. The chemicals had been shipped to Lebanon in 2013. Senior political and security officials knew of their presence and potential danger but did nothing.
Lebanese and non-Lebanese victims alike have seen justice delayed, with the investigation stalled since December 2021. Lebanon's powerful and corrupt political class has repeatedly intervened in the work of the judiciary. In January, Lebanon's top prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat ordered the release of all suspects detained in the investigation. "The political class have used every tool at their disposal -- both legal and extra legal -- to undermine, obstruct, and block the domestic investigation into the blast," said Aya Majzoub, deputy chief for the Mideast and North Africa at the rights group Amnesty International. Makhoul Mohammed, 40, a Syrian citizen, was lightly injured in the blast in his Beirut apartment while his daughter Sama, who was six at the time, lost her left eye. Mohammed, who settled in Canada last year, said he plans to sue those responsible for the explosion in a Canadian court. "The (domestic) investigation will not lead to results as long as this political class is running the country," he said.

Lebanon marks 3 years since catastrophic Beirut port blast
Agence France Presse/August 04, 2023
Lebanon on Friday marks three years since one of history's biggest non-nuclear explosions rocked Beirut. Yet nobody has been held to account as political and legal pressures suspend the investigation. On August 4, 2020, the massive blast at Beirut's port destroyed swathes of the Lebanese capital, killing more than 220 people and injuring at least 6,500. Authorities said the disaster was triggered by a fire in a warehouse where a vast stockpile of industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly stored for years. Three years on, the probe is virtually at a standstill, leaving survivors still yearning for answers. The main activist group representing families of those killed has called for a protest march on Friday afternoon, converging on the port. "This is a day of commemoration, mourning and protest against the Lebanese state that politicizes our cause and interferes in the judiciary," said Rima al-Zahed, whose brother was killed in the explosion. "The judiciary is shackled, justice is out of reach, and the truth is shrouded," she told AFP. The blast struck amid an economic collapse that the World Bank has dubbed one of the worst in recent history and which is widely blamed on a governing elite accused of corruption and mismanagement. Since its early days, the probe into the explosion has faced a slew of political and legal challenges. In December 2020, lead investigator Fadi Sawan charged former prime minister Hassan Diab and three ex-ministers with negligence.But as political pressure mounted, Sawan was removed from the case.
'Culture of impunity' -
His successor, Tarek Bitar, unsuccessfully asked lawmakers to lift parliamentary immunity for MPs who were formerly ministers. Hezbollah has meanwhile launched a campaign against Bitar, accusing him of bias and demanding his dismissal. The Interior Ministry has refused to execute arrest warrants which the lead investigator has issued. In December 2021, Bitar suspended his probe after a barrage of lawsuits, mainly from politicians he had summoned on charges of negligence. But in a surprise move this January, Bitar resumed investigations after a 13-month hiatus, charging eight new suspects including high-level security officials and Lebanon's top prosecutor, Ghassan Oueidat. Oueidat then charged Bitar with insubordination and "usurping power," and ordered the release of all those detained over the blast. Bitar has refused to step aside, yet has not set foot inside Beirut's Justice Palace for months. "Work (on the investigation) is ongoing," said a legal expert with knowledge of the case, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Bitar is determined to keep his promise to deliver justice for victims' families, the expert added. Zahed, whose brother died in the blast, said: "The truth does not die so long as there is someone to demand it. "We believe that we will get the truth." On Thursday, 300 individuals and organizations including Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International renewed a call for the United Nations to establish a fact-finding mission, a demand local officials have repeatedly rejected. "International action is needed to break the culture of impunity in Lebanon," HRW's Ramzi Kaiss said in a statement. Amnesty's Aya Majzoub accused authorities of using "every tool at their disposal to shamelessly undermine and obstruct the domestic investigation to shield themselves from accountability."

Hundreds protest as Lebanon marks 3 years since Beirut blast
AFP/August 04, 2023
BEIRUT: Lebanon marked three years since one of history’s biggest non-nuclear explosions rocked Beirut with hundreds of protesters marching alongside victims’ families Friday to demand long-awaited justice. Nobody has been held to account for the tragedy as political and legal pressures impede the investigation. On August 4, 2020, the massive blast at Beirut port destroyed swathes of the Lebanese capital, killing more than 220 people and injuring at least 6,500. Authorities said the disaster was triggered by a fire in a warehouse where a vast stockpile of ammonium nitrate fertilizer had been haphazardly stored for years. Three years on, the probe is virtually at a standstill, leaving survivors still yearning for answers. Protesters, many of them wearing black and carrying photographs of the victims, marched toward the port shouting slogans including: “We will not forget.”“Our pain inspires our persistence to search for the truth,” said protester Tania Daou-Alam, 54, who lost her husband in the explosion. Lack of justice “is the biggest example of rampant corruption in Lebanon, and we can no longer bear it,” she said. The blast struck amid an economic collapse which the World Bank has dubbed one of the worst in recent history and which is widely blamed on a governing elite accused of corruption and mismanagement. Some protesters waved a Lebanese flag covered in blood-like red paint while others carried an enormous flag covered in a written pledge to keep fighting for justice. “I have the right to know why my fellow Lebanese were killed,” said protester Jad Mattar, 42. “It’s like living on top of a volcano, not knowing were it will explode. We want safety,” he added. Since its early days, the probe into the explosion has faced a slew of political and legal challenges. In December 2020, lead investigator Fadi Sawan charged former prime minister Hassan Diab and three ex-ministers with negligence. But as political pressure mounted, Sawan was removed from the case. His successor, Tarek Bitar, unsuccessfully asked lawmakers to lift parliamentary immunity for MPs who were formerly cabinet ministers. The powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group has launched a campaign against Bitar, accusing him of bias and demanding his dismissal.
The interior ministry has refused to execute arrest warrants which the lead investigator has issued. In December 2021, Bitar suspended his probe after a barrage of lawsuits, mainly from politicians he had summoned on charges of negligence. But in a surprise move this January, Bitar resumed investigations after a 13-month hiatus, charging eight new suspects including high-level security officials and Lebanon’s top prosecutor, Ghassan Oueidat. Oueidat then charged Bitar with insubordination and “usurping power,” and ordered the release of all those detained over the blast. Bitar has refused to step aside, but has not set foot inside Beirut’s justice palace for months. “Work (on the investigation) is ongoing,” said a legal expert with knowledge of the case, requesting anonymity due to its sensitivity. Bitar is determined to keep his promise to deliver justice for victims’ families, the expert added. Rima Al-Zahed, whose brother was killed in the explosion, said: “The judiciary is shackled, justice is out of reach and the truth is shrouded. But, “the truth does not die so long as there is someone to demand it,” she added. “We believe that we will get the truth.”French President Emmanuel Macron, told Lebanese: “I am thinking of you. “Lebanon was not alone then, and it isn’t alone now. You can count on France,” he posted. Washington condemned the long delay in holding those responsible to account. “The lack of progress toward accountability is unacceptable and underscores the need for judicial reform and greater respect for the rule of law in Lebanon,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. On Thursday, 300 individuals and organizations, including Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International, renewed a call for the United Nations to establish a fact-finding mission — a demand Lebanese officials have repeatedly rejected. “If those responsible are not held accountable, it will put the country on a trajectory that allows this kind of crime to be repeated,” HRW’s Lama Fakih told AFP at the protest.

Three years on, families of victims commemorate Beirut port explosion as they await truth
Najat Houssari/Arab News/August 04, 2023
BEIRUT: Lebanon on Friday mourned those killed in the port blast that devastated Beirut three years ago. Investigations into the Aug. 4, 2020, explosion that rocked the Port of Beirut have hit a standstill. Families of the more than 230 victims — including those who are still undergoing treatment for their injuries — are seeking answers about the tragic event and demanding accountability for it.This year’s commemoration is fueled by the pursuit of “justice and accountability,” said William Noun, spokesperson for the families and the brother of fallen firefighter Joe Noun. Noun was speaking at Friday’s gathering of relatives at the explosion site. Even after the passage of three years since the crime, Noun said that the families had tenaciously kept the case alive. Noun emphasized: “Our right to express ourselves in the way we see fit is undeniable. This issue is not limited to a few; it concerns us all.”
Victims’ families remain dedicated to their cause, considering it a tribute to the memory of their lost loved ones, the wounded, and all those affected by the explosion. The day of mourning was marked by the closure of both public and private institutions.Black banners were hung along roads leading to the Port of Beirut, calling on the UN for support and an “international investigation.”Portraits of the explosion’s victims adorned walls, were worn as pins, and were carried by grieving relatives during their march. Activists displayed images of individuals suspected of involvement in the crime at the Justice Palace in Beirut.
Among these were former ministers, current MPs, security officials, and Lebanon’s top prosecutor, Judge Ghassan Oueidat, along with other judges.
The activists have taken the initiative to advance the case in foreign courts, particularly British courts. Their efforts have reshaped perspectives worldwide, garnering support for an international fact-finding committee.The investigations led by judicial investigator Judge Tarek Bitar have thus far failed to produce significant results.
Judge Bitar himself has now become a defendant, facing charges of “usurping authority.” The latest developments come amid pressure imposed by the ruling political elite, who have manipulated the judiciary to obstruct the investigation.
Friday sermons in mosques were dedicated to advocating for justice for the victims’ families. During a mass held for the victims, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi endorsed the families’ plea for an international fact-finding committee to assist the judicial investigator in his pursuit of truth.
He urged an end to “political interference in the investigation.”Al-Rahi stressed that stalled investigations did not mean the case was closed, nor that those responsible for the explosion would go unpunished.
Numerous local and international figures released statements condemning the concealment of facts. French President Emmanuel Macron declared: “Lebanon is not alone, and it will not be alone; it can count on France.”
The French Foreign Ministry stressed in a statement the need for the Lebanese judiciary to continue the investigation with “full transparency, away from political interventions.”As the church bells tolled and the calls to prayer echoed from the mosques in Beirut precisely at 6:07 p.m., marking the three-year anniversary of the explosion, the families of the victims were once again engulfed by profound pain. Two processions moved toward the explosion site, one of which was led by a faction that branched off from the main assembly of families due to pressures from Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
This breakaway group protested what they perceived as “Judge Bitar’s deviation and politicization of the investigation,” after charges were filed against former Prime Minister Hassan Diab, former ministers, current MPs, a former head of general security, and others. Mireille, the mother of young Elias Khoury, said: “The person I was before August 2020 no longer exists. Today, I am a changed individual, merely existing — eating, drinking, and breathing — all to endure and pursue a cause that I am bound to. “My pain is beyond words. While they carry on with their lives as if nothing happened, we bear the weight of compounded injustice.”The families of the victims now feel more abandoned than ever before, viewing the developments within the judicial system as an attempt to close a chapter that cannot be easily closed.
Yusra Al-Amin refuses to part with the photograph of her youngest son, Ibrahim, which she keeps close to her heart day and night. Ibrahim’s body was discovered amid the wreckage four days after the explosion by Civil Defense teams.
Al-Amin maintains her hope for justice despite the multitude of obstacles. She visits her son’s grave daily, declaring: “I will continue to seek justice for my son until my last breath. I will never tire.”Abdo Matta’s son, Charbel, 23, lost his life three years after joining the State Security apparatus. Matta recounted: “Charbel wasn’t meant to be at the port that day, but he swapped shifts with a colleague and fatefully met his end.”
Hiam Qadan, who lost her 30-year-old son Ahmed, called for the perpetrators and all those involved to be held accountable. She said: “We have the right to know who triggered the explosion that claimed our children’s lives. We will not be silenced until we unveil the identity of the murderer. “This is our right. I lost my son six days before his birthday; he intended to migrate, but he died before he could leave. “Where is the accountability? Where are the suspects? They released the detainees and are attempting to bury the crime. May their hearts burn as they burned our hearts.”
Rima Al-Zahed lost her brother Amin, 40, who was an employee at the Port of Beirut. She said: “The grief is immense and has yet to diminish.”The mother added: “The entire state apparatus bears responsibility for what happened. Four security agencies were tasked with safeguarding the port’s security. “Can we fathom a scenario in which an explosion of such magnitude occurs and no one is held accountable? Officials cover up for each other; everyone is involved. It’s a charade,” she said.
Jawad Shia, a young man of 30, tragically became a victim of the explosion just three days shy of his birthday. His father, Ajwad, recounted: “Upon graduating, he enlisted in the Lebanese army. On Aug. 4, he was stationed at the Port of Beirut. He was a polite, beloved young man and the only person I could count on in life.”He said that the families of the victims are up against criminal gangs and murderers who evade justice. In the third year since the explosion, there are no longer any detainees associated with the case — a stark contrast to the 17 detainees held in the preceding two years. Among those released was Mohammed Ziad Al-Awf, head of security and safety at the Port of Beirut, who holds American citizenship. He promptly departed for the US via Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport immediately after being released. On Aug. 4, 2020, an estimated 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate, stored for years in a port warehouse, detonated due to welding activity on the structurally compromised walls. The explosion ignited less than half of the stored material, resulting in 235 deaths, 7,000 injuries, widespread destruction, and displacement of approximately 300,000 people. The judicial investigator conducted a simulation of the crime at the port, though the findings remain undisclosed. The material losses from the explosion were estimated at between $3.8 billion and $4.6 billion, as per the World Bank.

Lebanon: Republicans in Congress call for sanctions against political class
Adam Lucente//Al Monitor/August 04/2023
WASHINGTON — Several members of Congress wrote to the Biden administration on Thursday calling for stronger US policy toward Lebanon, with one arguing that Iranian influence is increasing in the crisis-stricken country. “We must take a more assertive role in shaping Lebanon's trajectory or risk losing Lebanon entirely as an Iranian client state,” wrote Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) in a letter to US President Joe Biden seen by Al-Monitor.Risch's letter was sent ahead of the third anniversary of the horrific Beirut port explosion on Friday. Reps. Darrell Issa (R-CA), Darin LaHood (R-IL) and Max Miller (R-OH) also penned a letter to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday expressing their concerns with the administration's Lebanon policy.  Risch, who is the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, characterized current US policy towards Lebanon as “life support,” saying it has “failed to deliver results” as the Lebanese government has yet to implement reforms. Risch called on the administration to both support viable Lebanese politicians and counter Iran’s allies in the country more strongly. The senator specifically criticized Lebanon’s failure to elect a president, and accused Hezbollah of stockpiling weapons. He described speaker of the house Nabih Berri “a clear extension of Hezbollah" and accused the politician of delaying the selection of a new president. To this end, Risch said he welcomes recent European calls for sanctions on Berri and other Lebanese politicians.
Risch added that there has been “no accountability” for the Beirut port explosion, nor the December 2022 killing of an Irish United Nations peacekeeper in southern Lebanon, among other things. Ed Gabriel, the president of the American Task Force on Lebanon and a former US ambassador, applauded Risch’s letter. "Lebanon's political leaders have continued to put their own interests ahead of Lebanon’s,” Gabriel told Al-Monitor. “The US must consider all available measures against those who are blocking progress to serve the Lebanese people," he argued.
Sanctions on Berri?
On the House side, Issa, LaHood and Miller also lamented Lebanon's failure to elect a president and called for "targeted sanctions, including freezing any dollar-denominated assets, on those who have demonstrated a pattern of obstructing the presidential election process, including Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri, among others." Lebanon has been mired in a political and economic crisis since late 2019. The situation was exacerbated when more than 2,000 tons of fertilizer exploded in the Beirut port in August 2020, leading to more than 200 deaths, thousands of injuries, and significant damage to the city. To date, nobody has been convicted in relation to the tragedy. The US, as well as France and the International Monetary Fund, have been reluctant to provide further aid to Lebanon in the absence of governance and anti-corruption reforms. A $3 billion bailout from the IMF last year has yet to be delivered due the lack of reform. On the political front, Lebanon’s parliament has failed 12 times to elect a president since President Michel Aoun’s term ended last October. Berri is a member of the Amal Movement, and supports Hezbollah's endorsed candidate, Suleiman Frangieh. Per Risch's letter, the European Parliament passed a resolution last month calling for sanctions on officials responsible for obstructing the election of a new president, and named Berri specifically. Meanwhile, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel on the border are rising. Israel shelled Lebanon in response to rocket fire last month, among several other incidents. Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited the Lebanese border on Wednesday, and warned Hezbollah not to provoke Israel.
Not so fast
Hanin Ghaddar, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that US sanctions typically target Hezbollah and lesser-known individuals. Calls to penalize Berri himself are new, she said. "Going after the smaller fish is a way of threatening Berri to comply. It seems today things are really getting out of hand and Berri is not cooperating," Ghaddar told Al-Monitor. Ghaddar still did not expect neither the US nor the EU to actually sanction Berri. "I still think it’s a threat rather than a serious attempt," she said, "but this is a message to Berri saying that 'if you continue to follow Hezbollah's agenda, you will be sanctioned.'" The White House referred comment to the State Department, who did not immediately respond to Al-Monitor’s request for comment.

Lebanon marks port blast anniversary amid paralysis, no accountability
Beatrice Farhat//Al Monitor/August 04/2023
As the Lebanese observe a day of mourning three years after the massive explosion that killed more than 200 people and destroyed parts of Beirut, the investigation into the blast remains on hold.
BEIRUT — Lebanon on Friday marks the third anniversary of the deadly port explosion that ripped through Beirut on Aug. 4, 2020. Lebanese officials announced a national day of mourning for today, with sit-ins expected in the capital. More than 200 people died and some 6,000 were wounded in the massive blast, which destroyed a large section of the city, leveling buildings on and near the port and shattering windows and infrastructure across the capital. The explosion stemmed from a fire at a warehouse that ignited nearly 3,000 tons of highly flammable ammonium nitrate that had been improperly stored there since 2014. Experts declared the blast one of the biggest non-nuclear explosions in history. Ripples from it could be felt in Cyprus, 250 kilometers (155 miles) away. The explosion came as Lebanon reeled under a devastating economic crisis, which continues to this day. A year earlier, massive nationwide protests had erupted against the entrenched political elite that has ruled the country since the end of the civil war (1975-90). Reports that several officials and politicians had known about the presence of the chemical stockpile at the port fueled even more anger among the Lebanese people.
At the time, President Michel Aoun promised a swift and transparent probe into the blast, but three years on, no one has been held accountable for the catastrophe.
The investigation has proceeded in fits and starts and was quickly politicized. Shiite Hezbollah and its allied Amal movement repeatedly called for the removal of Judge Tarek Bitar, leading the probe into the blast, accusing him of bias. In September and October 2021, Bitar had summoned former ministers, including Hezbollah allies, to face charges of intentional killing and negligence.
In December 2021, Bitar suspended the probe amid pressure and reports of threats. After resuming his work in January this year, Bitar charged eight new suspects, including the then head of General Security, Abbas Ibrahim, and former army commander Jean Kahwaji in connection with the blast; the charges were not made public. Shortly thereafter, the country’s general prosecutor ordered the release of the suspects and charged Bitar with overstepping his powers. Since then, the investigation has been on hold.
The families of the victims are planning protests and sit-ins in Beirut for Friday afternoon to reiterate their calls for accountability and demand an international probe. On Thursday, more than 300 organizations, survivors and families of victims urged the United Nations Human Rights Council to establish an international fact-finding mission to investigate the blast. “The Lebanese authorities have been given every opportunity to demonstrate that they are willing and capable of holding those responsible for the explosion to account,” a joint letter addressed to the Human Rights Council reads. “But three years later, they have proven that they will use every tool at their disposal — legal and extra-legal — to evade accountability and perpetuate a culture of impunity in the country.”The signatories also asserted, “Human Rights Council member states have a responsibility and the opportunity to support the Lebanese people’s calls for accountability, the rule of law and protection of human rights.”In a Thursday statement, the US State Department said "the United States continues to stand with the people of Lebanon." Stressing the need for justice and accountability for those responsible for the blast, the statement added, "The lack of progress towards accountability is unacceptable and underscores the need for judicial reform and greater respect for the rule of law in Lebanon."

Damage from clashes could delay start of school year in Lebanon’s largest Palestinian camp, UN says
AP/August 04, 2023
BEIRUT: Damage to the school complex in Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp from recent clashes between factions could delay the start of the school year for some 6,000 children, a United Nations official said Friday.
The concern arose after heavy street battles broke out Sunday in Ein el-Hilweh between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party and Islamist groups Jund al Sham and Shabab al Muslim. The clashes erupted after Fatah accused the Islamists of gunning down a Fatah military general, Abu Ashraf al Armoushi, in the camp. The fighting has killed at least 13 people, injured dozens more and displaced thousands from the camp, which is home to more than 50,000 people. Although an uneasy calm has prevailed over the past two days, staff from the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon have been unable to access the camp to make a full damage assessment or to provide services. Dorothee Klaus, Director of UNRWA in Lebanon, told The Associated Press that a heavily fortified complex of four of the agency’s schools “was raided by the involved militants and was unfortunately also used as a starting point for the battle.”Militants from the Islamist groups reportedly shot Armoushi from a position inside the school complex. In the fighting that followed, the schools incurred “significant damages,” Klaus said, and “the school year for 6,000 children … may have to be delayed until we enact the necessary repairs.” The UNRWA school year is currently slated to begin in the first week of October, in parallel with Lebanese schools. This week’s clashes were not the first that have broken out between factions in the camp. As a result, Klaus said, the school complex “was over time fortified to ensure that when ... clashes erupted outside during school time, (the children) are safe.” But recently, it’s also been used as a fortress, she said. “I believe we will have to reflect on the entire architectural design of the school to ensure that looking forward, the school cannot … ever again be used as a launchpad for assassinations and armed activities,” she said.The cost of repairs and reconstruction within the camp is likely to cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, Klaus said. It is unclear where that funding will come from. Even before the recent clashes, UNRWA officials had warned of major shortfalls in the agency’s funding that could result in service cuts or being unable to pay staff salaries by the fall. UNRWA was founded after the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 to serve hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who fled or were forced from their homes. Today, their numbers have grown to some 5.9 million people, most in the Gaza Strip and Israeli-occupied West Bank, as well as neighboring countries in the Middle East. In recent years, the agency has been in a near-perpetual state of financial crisis. Reconstruction of another camp in Lebanon, Nahr Al-Bared, which suffered massive destruction in 2007 during fighting between Islamist militants in the camp and the Lebanese army, has still not been completed. Klaus said the agency is still missing $40 million to complete the reconstruction. Klaus said any reconstruction taking place in Ein el-Hilweh should be tied to a “road map” to ensure that the clashes are not repeated. “Any investment that would be undermined by further destruction ... later in the year because no sustainable solution has been found, would be very much deplorable,” she said. There are nearly 500,000 Palestinian refugees registered in Lebanon, although the actual number in the country is believed to be around 200,000, as many have emigrated but remain on UNRWA’s roster. Palestinians in Lebanon are restricted in their rights to work and own property, and the vast majority of them live in poverty. Klaus said the recent clashes are “reflective of an unresolved conflict, of the unresolved status of Palestine refugees here in Lebanon.”“One can only hope that major crises, such as we’ve just undergone in Ein el-Hilweh, would also open the door to reflecting on how can more sustainable approaches to the Palestine refugee presence in Lebanon be found,” she said.

US State Department condemns lack of progress on Beirut Port blast investigation
LBCI/August 04, 2023
The US Department of State issued a statement on Friday regarding the third anniversary of the Beirut port blast. “Today marks the third anniversary of the devastating explosion in Beirut, Lebanon, that killed more than 200 people and injured and displaced thousands more. The US continues to stand with the people of Lebanon,” the statement said. “The victims and their families deserve justice and accountability for those responsible for the disaster and the underlying causes. The lack of progress towards accountability is unacceptable and underscores the need for judicial reform and greater respect for the rule of law in Lebanon,” according to the statement.

Clash of titans: The battle between Judge Bitar, Prosecutor Oueidat
LBCI/August 04, 2023
Did the judicial investigator Tarek Bitar know that his voluntary return to the port investigations would cause such tensions? After a year and a month of forced suspension due to lawsuits filed against him, Judge Bitar believed the judicial investigator was turning a blind eye. This was on January 23, 2023. After ten days, his return ended before it was completed. However, tensions escalated rapidly only due to Bitar's claim against the State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat. The latter, who had distanced himself from the case for over a year under the pretext of stepping down from the case, was handed the "pass" easily, while Bitar faced a serious challenge. In an unprecedented judicial move, seventeen detainees were released simultaneously, with Bitar securing freedom for only five of them. However, Oueidat shrugged off the pressure from political and security forces, which Bitar considered he didn't need permission to pursue.
But the most important thing was the lifting of Western sanctions, especially those that were placed on the table for the US Department of State's Antony Blinken to sign after it became evident, according to the Levinson Act, that an American citizen, Mohammed Ziyad Al-Awf, had become a hostage, and thus his release became a priority.The relationship between Bitar and Oweidat had never deteriorated to this extent before, and the investigation paid the price. The insistence of Oueidat on proceeding with the interrogation sessions was met with a series of administrative and legal measures.
1. The Public Prosecution Office of Cassation was barred from cooperating with his requests
2. Oueidat accused Bitar of power abuse
3. Leaking information about the intention to issue a summons against him if he insisted on holding sessions for the accused
Amid the security dilemma on the one hand and the hammer of restraining Bitar on the other, everything came to a halt amid deafening political silence.
The affected judges, politicians, and security officials emerged unharmed, feeling at ease. But those who suffered the consequences are the ones who bore the truth and the truth itself. Today, Judge Habib Rizkallah is investigating the alleged crime of power abuse committed by Bitar. Whatever the outcome, the only sure thing is that what this case has been going through three years after the crime is a stain on Lebanon's history.

As long as this system exists, it will not hold itself accountable: MP Mouawad
LBCI/August 04, 2023
On the third anniversary of the August 4 explosion, the families of the victims of the Beirut Port blast will set off from the Beirut Fire Department, heading towards the Statue of the Immigrant in a march entitled "Continuing for Justice and Accountability."However, MP Michel Mouawad stressed to LBCI that "the August 4th case is not just about Beirut; it is a matter of national importance." He stated, "The battle for justice for the victims of the Beirut explosion is intertwined with the battle to lift the domination over the state. As long as this system exists, it will not hold itself accountable. Therefore, our battle is twofold."

Corrupt system does not want investigation to proceed as it should: MP Makhzoumi on Beirut Port blast
LBCI/August 04, 2023
On the third anniversary of the August 4 explosion, the families of the Beirut Port blast victims gathered in front of the Beirut Fire Department. They will then proceed towards the Statue of the Immigrant, accompanied by a fire brigade vehicle. However, several Beirut MPs have also arrived near the fire department to support the families. Among them was MP Fouad Makhzoumi, who told LBCI about this file's investigations: "The corrupt system wants to cover up the truth. As opposition MPs, we have submitted a written request to the United Nations for an international fact-finding committee.""There are honest-handed judges, such as Judge Bitar, but there is a corrupt system that does not want the investigation to proceed as it should," Makhzoumi added.

Escalating tensions over borrowing responsibility between cabinet, parliament
LBCI/August 04, 2023
Amid mounting challenges and political discussions in Lebanon, the responsibility for borrowing from the central bank has become a contentious issue between the parliament and the government. Both parties are aware of the legal and practical ramifications, including how borrowed funds will be repaid, the intended duration, and the funding sources. Government sources emphasized the exceptional nature of the situation and stressed the need for everyone to shoulder their responsibilities, free from political exploitation. On the other hand, certain MPs from Speaker Nabih Berri's bloc believed it is the caretaker government's duty, as the executive authority, to secure the state's expenses rather than the responsibility of the deputies. Consequently, the parliament will study the government's request presented in a detailed draft law, considering factors such as the required amount, the necessity for it, its allocation, and how the government will repay the funds it receives.However, the cabinet has tasked Finance Minister Youssef Khalil to engage in dialogues with acting central bank governor Wassim Mansouri and the bank's deputies. These discussions have begun and are set to intensify in the coming week. However, sources from the central bank clarified that their consultations pertain primarily to monetary matters, and anything related to financing requires a specific law. Amid the ongoing dispute between the government and the parliament, sources within the Central Bank of Lebanon indicated that the acting central bank governor is unconcerned with the discussion surrounding borrowing, financing mechanisms, and methods. Moreover, it was clear from the outset that the focus should be on implementing reforms, and if the government requires funding, the central bank can assist within the confines of the law and in a limited manner. The law issued by the parliament serves as a mandatory framework for expenditures, and without it, not a single dollar can be disbursed for obligatory expenses. According to legal sources, any decision by the government to spend from the mandatory reserve or any law issued by the parliament in this regard may be subject to appeal before the Shura Council or the Constitutional Council in the second case. Additionally, the reason for that is evident as it would potentially infringe upon Article 15 of the Constitution, which safeguards individual ownership, and the chances of a successful appeal are significant. However, LBCI sources mentioned that in the coming week, Mansouri will provide precise figures regarding the foreign exchange reserves, the bank's liabilities, and the remaining SDR funds. This move aims to ensure transparency and keep the Lebanese people informed about these matters with clarity.

Celebratory gunfire’ condemned in Lebanon as schoolgirl, 7, fights for life
Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 04, 2023
BEIRUT: A seven-year-old girl has been left fighting for her life following a tragic incident at a school in Lebanon. Naya Hannah is in a coma after a stray bullet struck her in the head while she was having lunch on her school’s playground in Hadath, near Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hannah’s condition has been described as critical by Dr. Kamal Kanso, a specialist at the pediatric intensive care unit at Sacre Coeur Hospital. A CT scan revealed that the bullet had penetrated Hannah’s brain and could not be extracted. Kanso said that the bullet had settled in a very sensitive spot of the brain, adding that her condition was “very difficult” and that she was on a ventilator and in a stage-four coma.
HIGHLIGHT
The Ministry of Education always calls on people to refrain from celebratory gunfire at the time of exam results, and Caretaker Education Minister Abbas Halabi condemned the incident. The schoolgirl was on the playground with friends at the College des Soeurs des Saints Coeurs when heavy gunfire was heard in the southern suburbs as people celebrated the results of baccalaureate exams. Firearms are used to celebrate events in Lebanon despite the danger they pose. Security forces have not yet identified the person behind the gunfire but the tragedy has prompted social and civic forces to speak out against such reckless acts. The Ministry of Education always calls on people to refrain from celebratory gunfire at the time of exam results, and Caretaker Education Minister Abbas Halabi condemned the incident. Hannah, who is an only child, was currently between life and death, said Mayor of Hadath George Edward Aoun. He said: “She is the latest victim of the criminal bullets fired by people (who are) instinctively celebrating their happy occasions and the announcement of the results of the official examinations.”He added that the celebratory shooters were “dehumanized killers.”Remorse would not make up for the blood that Hannah had lost, he added. Aoun called on the priests in Hadath’s parishes to pray for her recovery every day until Sunday. Halabi believed the act was “recklessness that turned into a heinous crime.” He called on security and military forces to pursue the shooters and refer them to the competent judiciary, and for the reckless habit to stop. Halabi added that “some people did not answer our repeated calls to abstain from celebratory gunfire following the announcement of the results.”He said they had instead turned the celebration into a crime that had seriously injured a little girl. The minister said that “passing the official exams calls for happy celebrations, exchanging greetings, and promoting hope for the future amid the political deadlock.”Researchers Information International has revealed that “stray bullets cause on average seven deaths and 15 injuries a year in Lebanon.”Stray bullets resulted in 81 deaths and 169 injuries between 2010 and 2021, according to reports by the internal security forces and the media. Parliament passed a law in 2016 criminalizing shooting firearms into the air and punishing shooters with prison terms ranging from six months to three years. If the gunfire results in a loss of life, they face a much harsher punishment. However, the law has not ended the reckless practice and it persists in many regions.

UNRWA says Ain el-Helweh remains volatile, urges end to hostilities
Naharnet/August 04, 2023
UNRWA has called for a cessation of fighting in the Ain el-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp in south Lebanon after the fighting left 13 killed and dozens injured. “The situation remains very volatile … Thousands were forced to flee their homes that have been damaged or destroyed,” UNRWA said in a statement.
“An UNRWA school complex inside the camp, providing education to 3,200 children (outside summer months), was used for the fighting. The nearby city of Saida (Sidon), the third largest in Lebanon, had shut down, as shelling and artillery fire reached its commercial and residential areas,” it added. “UNRWA, with partners, are currently hosting 600 persons displaced from the camp in two of its schools in Mieh Mieh refugee camp and Saida city and is providing fuel to a hospital operating inside Ain el-Helweh camp. We have not been able to enter the camp and deliver much needed assistance. A total of 360 UNRWA staff live in the camp. While some were trapped and one was injured, others have fled, with some continuing to work, responding to needs in the camp,” it said. Lamenting that the refugees of Ain el-Helweh are “reliving traumas and shocks,” UNRWA noted that many have been displaced multiple times in the past decades. UNRWA accordingly called for “an immediate cessation of fighting in the camp in order for civilians to get respite and for the Agency to be able to provide assistance and conduct needs assessments.”
It also called for the protection of all UNRWA schools and other facilities at all times, including during the fighting.

Israel's security chiefs fear 'miscalculation' with Hezbollah leading to all-out war
Ben Caspit/Al Monitor/August 04/2023
Israel’s security brass assess that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah might up the number of provocative incidents on the border to spark a supposedly limited conflict with Israel.
TEL AVIV — Israel is currently focusing much of its security efforts on its border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah operatives are multiplying provocations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). On Thursday, for the second time in two weeks, the Iran-backed militant juggernaut posted a video showing the IDF chief of staff visiting the border region. Israel considers it a threatening message by the organization. The buzz among Israeli security, political and media circles this summer is reminiscent of the chatter in spring 2006 about a potential flare-up along Israel’s northern border stemming from a “miscalculation” that could drag Syria and Israel, and perhaps Hezbollah, into an all-out war. Only in retrospect did it become clear that even as everyone was talking about a series of misunderstandings and miscalculations, the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was already planning the September 2007 strike against the plutonium-powered nuclear reactor that Syria had built undetected by Israel until it was nearing completion. These days, the Syrians are no longer building a nuclear reactor, and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is not yet eyeing nuclear technology, secure in his knowledge of Iran’s powerful backing of his Lebanese Shiite militia. Nonetheless, talk is heating up, and the realization that the sides are slowly but surely advancing toward an all-out military confrontation is becoming clearer.
Syria "will not be target" It is unclear if Israel is again planning a pre-emptive military strike of any kind north of its border, but if it is, Syria will not be the target this time. At the moment, the threat posed to Israel by Nasrallah is far greater than the remnants of any Syrian threat. In fact, both Israel and Hezbollah are convinced of the other's offensive intentions. Israel being torn apart by internal conflict undermining its military’s cohesion and battle readiness, and Lebanon long being mired in internal chaos, economic collapse and social disintegration, have together given rise to the current volatile situation.
While the rumors and speculation in spring 2006 remained mostly behind closed doors, in summer 2023, the talk has gone public. Israeli Intelligence Directorate chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva warned at the Herzliya Conference in May, "Nasrallah is close to making a mistake that could plunge the region into a big war. He is close to making this mistake from Lebanon or Syria.” In the months since, the Intelligence Directorate has issued many more assessments warning Israel’s political leaders about the danger of a significant war in the north and about the erosion of Israeli deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah, in particular, and the northern front, in general. Israel and Hezbollah regularly threaten each other, with Nasrallah denigrating Israel in every speech, as ever, and various Israeli officials warning him against toying with the idea of dragging Israel into "a few days of fighting."
Such a limited clash is not an option, according to the messages Israel has been conveying to Hezbollah openly and covertly. In the case of a flare-up along the northern border, Israel would likely take advantage of the opportunity to restore its deterrence and teach Nasrallah and Hezbollah a lesson that will "send them back to the bunker for another 17 years," according to a senior Israeli security source, speaking to Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. The source was referring to the destruction Israel wreaked on Hezbollah in 2006 that sent Nasrallah into prolonged hiding.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened Israel’s top security officials on July 30 to consult about the increasing tensions with Hezbollah. The discussion focused on recent Hezbollah provocations, such as setting up two tents with armed fighters in a disputed border enclave, the strengthening of first-line positions along Lebanon's border with Israel, the incessant friction between Lebanese and Hezbollah fighters along the border fence with Israeli troops, and sabotage carried out along the fence in broad daylight. All these actions attest to the erosion of Israeli deterrence and growing Hezbollah daring.  Present at the security gathering were Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the heads of the National Security Council, the Mossad and the Shin Bet.
A vague statement issued by Netanyahu’s office said the prime minister had accepted their recommendations and proposed plans of action. Political sources explained that the announcement means that Netanyahu is using the security agencies and army brass as cover for a decision to contain Hezbollah's provocations, for the time being. Restoring deterrence  Nonetheless, a growing number of military, security and senior decision-makers understand that the growing tensions cannot be maintained for long. "Something has to happen in order to shock the other side and restore stability to the northern border. If we expect Nasrallah to come to this realization on his own, things will end badly," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Nasrallah is trapped in his own conception as [being] someone who knows Israel and is an expert on its domestic problems; if he thinks he can exploit the internal dispute in Israel for his own purposes, he will discover that it was a mistake, just as he was wrong in 2006”—when he initiated an incursion into Israeli territory, killed two soldiers and found himself embroiled in a vicious war. Israel, for its part, is trapped in a different kind of conception, one based on the assumption that any real threat to the country’s security would unite the warring domestic factions, heal internal rifts and bury the disobedience of reserve forces refusing to serve a government that is turning Israel from a democracy into a dictatorship. Even now, in the midst of the deepest social chasm Israel has experienced in its 75-year history, there are those who claim that "one small war will solve everything."
Does Netanyahu have an interest in dispersing the countrywide protests roiling Israel for the past seven months by means of a "small war"? There are those who speculate that he may, but most dismiss such a scenario. Netanyahu knows that a war on the northern front will wreak havoc and destruction and damage on the Israeli side as well. That would make the pro-democracy protests the least of his problems. Not since 1967 has an Israeli prime minister benefitted from the wars and military actions that Israel initiated or into which it was dragged. Historical statistics in the Middle East are rarely wrong.

Where Justice Dies
Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al Awsat/August 04/2023
This is a sad day for Lebanon, a country that is no stranger to anniversaries marking tragic events. However, it is on this day in particular that thousands of Lebanese families of all sects remember the horrific massacre that destroyed half of Beirut, killing and injuring their loved ones. Despite the three years having gone by, the victims’ families continue their search for the perpetrators and negligent officials responsible. The blast has been compared to the non-atomic version of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. Nonetheless, nothing has happened as the years have gone by. It is business as usual. Only the victims’ families remember. Everyone else is carrying on with their lives, unfazed by the fact that they live in a country where no one is held accountable after such a crime.
Here, there is no room for justice, state authority, or the law. If you’re looking for the embodiment of a country governed by the “law of the jungle” we hear so much about, look no further - Lebanon is a living, breathing example. Here, the law has no place. Of course, there is a constitution, and the country does have laws, but here, they are not ratified to be implemented. Rather, they are there simply because they are a necessary part of state architecture.
Here, the “powerful” do as they please. “Excess strength” has become a catchphrase used to justify actions that others are prohibited from taking, or do not dare to take. Those who can deploy their “excess strength” (through their immense arsenal) can break the law. They can storm the so-called “Palace of Justice.” They threaten to “remove” judges who are not to their liking and then go to their homes, or to their “suburb,” as though nothing had happened. They obstruct elections if victory is not in the bag!
Despite the immense pain and sorrow, and the tears that will pour from the eyes of the families of the victims who lost their lives near the port of Beirut, some will gloat and rejoice. No one has managed to ask any of them a question over the three years that have passed - not even one simple question like “Where were you on that day? Why did you neglect your responsibility to take action despite knowing about this ticking time bomb by the port’s silos - about this Nitrate capable of blowing up the entire capital?
They appointed a judge to conduct what they called a “judicial investigation.” However, these very heroes went on to threaten him. They used every intimidation and terror trick in the book to prevent him from doing his job. The man yielded. He put his files and secluded himself in his room. Meanwhile, the accused roam the dark streets of the country freely after “arrest warrants” were issued against them, which ordinarily implies that security agencies must and will “arrest them.” Instead, they attend public events, run in the elections... and win uncontested. In fact, a “Minister of Culture” obnoxiously volunteered that he was willing to take a stroll on the beach with one of the fugitives, challenging anyone to dare to arrest him! These are some of the questions that have been raised over the past three years: who brought all of this Ammonium Nitrate to the port of Beirut? Who is responsible for concealing it all this time? An even more dangerous question; where did the bulk of those explosive materials go? Indeed, three-quarters of the Nitrate unloaded onto the port’s Hangar 12 years ago had been removed. The report written by a team from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), found that if all the Nitrate that had been placed in the port in 2013 (estimated at 2,754 tons) had detonated, it would have destroyed the entire capital. The FBI estimates that 500 tons exploded on August 4, 2020. The facts about what exactly happened with the rest, which was smuggled out of the port over seven years, could explain the guilty party’s insistence on obstructing the investigation and the issuance of the judicial investigator’s report. Where did the tons of Nitrate that disappeared go? How was it smuggled out of the port of Beirut? And who used it?
Certain officials are in charge of the port of Beirut. Some of them were negligent, some were complicit, and some were unaware that this much Nitrate had been there or were not directly responsible for this matter. The conclusion of the investigation that is being obstructed was supposed to answer these questions, not just charge defendants. That is what the families of the victims of the port explosion are demanding. When justice collapses, and the law is not applied, everything becomes permissible. Crimes are committed. The capital’s port is blown up. People’s bank deposits are stolen. When the time comes for parliament to vote for a president, it simply does not. This is an exemplary model for ensuring state collapse.

Continued Hezbollah Impunity Risks Regional Explosion
Orde Kittrie/FDD/August 04/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/120774/120774/
Three years ago this week, in a Beirut blast widely blamed on Hezbollah, one of the world’s largest-ever non-nuclear explosions killed over 220 people, wounded 7,000, and destroyed or damaged 74,000 homes. The failure to hold Hezbollah accountable for both the blast and the terrorist group’s continuing aggression toward Israel has unfortunately now brought the entire Middle East to the brink of a conflict that could result in far more casualties and damage.
Hezbollah’s role in the 2020 blast, caused by hundreds of tons of explosives improperly stored under its control, should have weakened the organization’s grip over Lebanon. Instead, Hezbollah has repeatedly obstructed the Lebanese legal system’s efforts to hold it and its allies accountable, including by assassinating witnesses, attacking investigators, and engineering the release of 17 detained suspects.
Meanwhile, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, warned in a July 27 letter to the United Nations that tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border “are higher than they have been in years as a result of Hezbollah’s violent escalations, blatant violations of Security Council resolutions and dangerous military advancements.” As a result, Erdan stated, “the Middle East is a powder keg on the cusp of being ignited.”
Erdan referenced a July 15 illicit crossing into Israel by 18 Lebanese persons, rockets fired into Israel, and Hezbollah’s erection of two military structures in Israeli territory. Erdan also referenced the construction in Lebanon over the past year of dozens of military outposts all along, and mere yards from, the border with Israel by a Hezbollah front group called Green Without Borders (GWB).
The outposts enable Hezbollah — which is banned from possessing weapons by Security Council Resolution 1701 — to illicitly hide troops and weapons right next to Israel. The outposts also block border access by United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers.
Erdan warned that unless the Security Council takes action, including by bolstering UNIFIL, the situation will continue to deteriorate “towards outright conflict, and the consequences of such a conflict will be disastrous for the entire region.” Erdan was not optimistic, lamenting that “[s]adly, inaction in the face of Hezbollah’s violations has become a running trend.”
Ambassador Richard Mills, deputy U.S. representative to the United Nations, has warned that GWB, a “so-called environmental group … acting on Hizballah’s behalf,” is “obstruct[ing] UNIFIL’s access” to the border and “heightening tensions.”
The UNIFIL mandate expires on August 31. When it comes up for renewal later this month, the United States should insist that the mandate specify that UNIFIL has full access to all locations within its area of operations, regardless of whether the locations are claimed by GWB.
In addition, the United States and its allies should continue pushing for an independent and impartial investigation into the Beirut blast. A finding of Hezbollah responsibility could both achieve justice and erode the terrorist group’s power in Lebanon. The United States should consider publicizing any unreleased evidence it may have of Hezbollah complicity.
The Biden administration and Congress should also increase sanctions pressure on Hezbollah, its use of human shields, and its missile procurement. In addition, Washington should impose sanctions on corrupt Lebanese officials who protect or otherwise assist Hezbollah.
Finally, Washington should condition some of its hundreds of millions of dollars in annual assistance to the Lebanese government and military on their holding Hezbollah accountable. In particular, Beirut should investigate the 2020 explosion and remove GWB outposts and other Hezbollah positions near the border. Hezbollah’s impunity needs to end now, before it triggers a regional explosion that could dwarf the damage caused by the 2020 Beirut blast.
**Orde F. Kittrie is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a law professor at Arizona State University. He previously served for over a decade in legal and policy positions at the U.S. State Department. For more analysis from Orde, please subscribe HERE. Follow Orde and FDD on Twitter @OrdeFK and @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/08/03/continued-hezbollah-impunity-risks-regional-explosion/

Child abuse cases put innocent casualties of Lebanon’s multiple crises in the spotlight
Nadia Al Faour?Arab News/August 04/2023
DUBAI: Lebanese society was appalled to learn of the death last month of Leen Talib, a six-year-old girl who lived with her grandparents in Akkar in the country’s far north. According to a coroner’s report, Leen died from injuries sustained as a result of repeated sexual assault. The girl’s maternal grandfather and mother were both arrested in connection with the attack. Meanwhile, the case has provoked outrage across the Arab world, with calls on social media for the guilty parties to face the death penalty. Leen’s alleged abuse does not appear to be an isolated case in Lebanon, where a financial crisis that began in 2019, coupled with the nation’s political paralysis, has left child protection services crumbling under the weight of neglect and growing needs. Lebanon is bound by international law to provide child protection, having signed the CRC (Convention on Rights of the Child) in 1990 that safeguards children from psychological, physical and sexual abuse, and all forms of exploitation. But the state falls dismally short when it comes to implementation. “We have seen that there is a rise in child protection cases and abuses are becoming more severe. It is definitely related to the economic situation, and the absence of accountability and protection in many cases,” Charles Nasrallah, executive chairperson of the Lebanese human rights monitor Insan Association, told Arab News.
Since the financial crisis hit, a collapse compounded by the economic pressures of the global pandemic, the Lebanese pound has lost 98 percent of its value, while about 80 percent of the population has plunged below the poverty line. The nation’s collective trauma was deepened exactly three years ago when a warehouse at the port of Beirut filled with thousands of tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrate caught fire, causing one of the biggest non-nuclear blasts in history. The Aug. 4, 2020 explosion devastated a whole district of the Lebanese capital, killing 218, injuring around 7,000, and causing $15 billion in property damage, as well as leaving an estimated 300,000 people homeless. Rana Ghinnawi, a family protection expert, told Lebanese news media she believes cases of child cruelty are on the rise owing to several factors, particularly the collapse of child protection services, civil courts, deterrence, and crisis management resources. Patricia Khoury, international partnerships coordinator for Himaya, a nongovernmental organization that specializes in child protection, said the economic decline in Lebanon is a primary reason for the increase in violent cases. During the first five months of 2023, Himaya responded to 1,415 cases of child violence, 26 percent of which involved neglect, 18 percent psychological violence, 29 percent physical violence, 18 percent exploitation and 10 percent sexual violence. Divided along gender lines, recorded victims of violence so far this year were 46 percent female and 54 percent male. Most of those allegedly abused were Syrian children (74 percent), followed by Lebanese (25 percent) and other nationalities (1 percent). About 51 percent of the cases registered with Himaya involved sexual violence.According to Khoury, it has become almost impossible to meet the growing and urgent needs of children in the country, whether through associations, parents, authority or schools.
With many services suspended owing to the financial crisis, families have been left at their wits’ end, exposing children to risks of abuse. According to a 2021 report by the UN children’s fund UNICEF, one in two children in Lebanon “is at risk of physical, psychological or sexual violence,” while around “1.8 million children in Lebanon are now experiencing multidimensional poverty and are at risk of being forced into abuses such as child labor, child marriage, to help their families make ends meet.” In many cases, parents have been forced to work multiple jobs, increasing demand for daycare and babysitting services. However, poor monitoring and oversight of these services has left them open to abuse. Gardereve, a nursery in the coastal municipality of Jdeideh, near Beirut, was shut down recently after videos surfaced showing an employee force feeding, slapping and psychologically abusing children in the center’s care.
In July, Lebanese media reported the arrest of a shop owner in Beirut accused of luring children to his outlet, and at times to his home, where he is alleged to have assaulted them. A Lebanese Facebook page by the name of “Winiya al Dawle” (Where is the government) recently published a video of a mother brutally beating her child, and threatening to kill him and his brother if their father did not take them. Meanwhile, the NGO Village of Love and Peace was shut down after allegations of trafficking, sexual abuse and harassment were leveled against its founder, Norma Saeed, and one of her employees, Jebran Kali.
Minors in their care were allegedly forced to consume drugs and alcohol, engage in sexual activities, and were called to Saeed’s apartment to clean. Saeed has also been accused of falsifying records and papers of toddlers under her care and selling them to families. There have also been several cases of child abandonment. In Tripoli, one of Lebanon’s poorest cities, a baby girl only a few days old was discovered wrapped in a trash bag being carried by a stray dog.
Two babies were also recently found dumped under the Ring Bridge in Beirut.
In other instances, families have taken their children out of school and sent them to work to bring in extra income, contrary to laws governing compulsory education and a ban on child labor. “Children are subjected to double danger when they go to work, as they are more exposed and usually do low-skill, high-risk jobs,” said Nasrallah. Although there are no published figures demonstrating a rise in cases of child abuse in Lebanon, recent high-profile incidents have brought the issue to the fore, leading to demands for greater attention to prevent damaged childhoods.
However, it is often only the most prominent cases that receive attention, thereby forcing authorities to act. “When a child is abused, if the case is exposed in the media and has a lot of coverage, this is when the legal system takes fast and adequate measures. Otherwise the abusers aren’t usually held accountable,” said Nasrallah. “At times, religious laws also play a hand in protecting abusers.”
Lebanese authorities have attributed the apparent rise in abuse to what they call moral decay and lack of public awareness. After the arrest of Alaa Chahine, the shop owner in Beirut who had allegedly been luring children to his shop and home to sexually abuse them, State Security Director Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba released a statement saying: “Cases of harassment and rape have increased in Lebanon in recent times for various reasons, including cases of moral looseness and distancing from the values ​​that the Lebanese have always cherished.”Saliba also cited “the absence of serious awareness in schools and universities to urge young women and men to be on the safe side and protect themselves from harassers.”He said: “I am sending a message to the parents, to warn their sons and daughters, and to be frank with them and alert them to confront anyone who tries to touch them or invites them to places. “Parents should encourage their children to tell them when any incident occurs, because the consequences of neglect are very negative for every child or adolescent. This must be done to avoid a life of psychological wounds, consequences, and suffering.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 04-05/2023
Pentagon aims to use Marines to defend commercial tankers from Iran
Jared Szuba/Al Monitor/August 04/2023
WASHINGTON — The US military has devised a plan to deploy Marines and Navy personnel onboard commercial tanker vessels in the Persian Gulf region to deter seizure attempts by Iran. A contingent of US Marines has already arrived in Bahrain and begun training for the proposed mission ahead of the expected arrival of a Marine Expeditionary Unit later this week, a US official confirmed to Al-Monitor on Thursday. The plan, first reported by the Associated Press, does not yet have full authorization from the Biden administration and will first require diplomatic agreements with foreign governments as well as voluntary requests from shipping companies, Al-Monitor's sources said. If fully approved by the White House, the broader proposal would leverage the military's existing self-defense authorities to enable the Marines, backed up by US warplanes and Navy ships, to protect civilian tankers flying flags other than those of the United States and its allies, officials briefed on the discussions told Al-Monitor. The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, has already briefed commercial shipping representatives on the plan. What this means: Top US military brass are getting creative with plans to deter Iranian naval forces from a renewed spate of attempts to seize commercial oil tankers in Gulf waterways.
Iran's regular navy and the IRGC have attempted to seize at least five variously flagged tankers in Gulf waterways since the US government redoubled its efforts to enforce sanctions on the country's oil exports earlier this year.
"There's a vulnerability that Iran is trying to exploit, and is exploiting with these seizures," one American official said. In April, Iranian navy commandos fast-roped onto the deck and seized control of a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in international waters in the Gulf of Oman. The Advantage Sweet, a Chinese-owned, Chevron-chartered vessel, had been bound for Houston carrying Kuwaiti crude oil. The US Navy said following the incident that it had received a distress call from the Advantage Sweet and that it was "monitoring the situation." International law forbids military forces from boarding a ship without permission from the government of the flag it is flying. The seizure by Iran came in retaliation for the US Justice Department's successful effort to persuade the owners of another tanker, the Suez Rajan, to redirect that ship to the United States and surrender its cargo of sanctioned Iranian oil bound for China, US officials said. Less than a week later, the IRGC navy seized a Greek-managed, Panama-flagged tanker, the Niovi, as it transited between the Emirati ports of Fujairah and Abu Dhabi, prompting Emirati officials to complain to US counterparts. The White House announced an increase of US and allied maritime patrols in and around the Strait of Hormuz in mid-May in response to the incidents.
A turning point came in early July, however, when the presence of the USS McFaul thwarted three apparently separate attempts by Iranian ships to seize different commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman within roughly 12 hours. In one of those incidents, the crew of an Iranian vessel opened fire with live ammunition on a Bahamas-flagged, Chevron-chartered tanker – the Richmond Voyager – which had refused radio orders to stop off the coast of Oman. The Pentagon's former top policy chief, Colin Kahl, said early last month prior to his scheduled departure from the role that there would be more to come. “Whatever the Iranians are trying to do here, I don’t think we should assume it’ll be the last time they try,” he said. The United States has deployed Air Force F-16s, a dozen high-end F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and a third Navy guided-missile destroyer in recent weeks to bolster joint patrols around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply flows. The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit and accompanying USS Carter Hall and USS Bataan are expected to arrive in Bahrain by early next week. “It’s not about adding more forces to the region; it’s what you do with those forces,” said the US official, who like the others cited in this story spoke on strict condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning. Widening the aperture: The US military is only authorized to use force in Gulf waterways when acting in self-defense or when protecting ships flying the flag of countries with which Washington maintains prior defense agreements, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Pentagon officials have been in talks with President Joe Biden's National Security Council over a proposal to build upon such bilateral agreements to apply collective self-defense to commercial vessels based on criteria other than national flags, potentially including ownership of the ship or its cargo, six officials briefed on the discussions told Al-Monitor. "It's about getting a sign of their buy-in, and they have granted it," the aforementioned official claimed. John Kirby, the NSC's strategic communications coordinator, told Al-Monitor late last week he was not familiar with the Pentagon's request, but said the administration "would be inclined" to grant Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin broader authorities if he felt he needed them to ensure maritime security in the Persian Gulf. "In terms of what their rules of engagement are or how they're going to be used, that's really a question better put to DOD," Kirby told reporters on Thursday. As the Pentagon's vision for the mission takes shape, the US forces deployed to the region — including recently arrived F-16 and F-35 aircraft — are expected to fall under the command of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Kirsten Fontenrose, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Atlantic Council and a former senior director for the Persian Gulf at the White House’s National Security Council, told Al-Monitor Pentagon's proposal offers the Biden administrtion an opportunity. “It would be a phenomenal deterrent,” Fontenrose said.
“Granting the authority to use force if something is under attack is one thing, but when you say, ‘even if it's a threat of seizure,’ that's a far stronger deterrent.”
Yes, but... Key details of the Pentagon's proposal have yet to be finalized, including whether the White House may delegate to US military commanders in the region the authority to approve the use of force against Iranian ships without first obtaining direct permission from Washington. "There is an open request on that," one US official confirmed. Current and former senior national security officials expressed skepticism. "I don’t see this administration as willing to take the risk," one formal senior Defense Department official told Al-Monitor, adding that such a decision would be "outside of this administration’s culture."
Memories are still fresh within the White House and Pentagon of the Trump administration's mercurial approach to confronting Iran. "The risk the NSC will have to seriously weigh is that using the authority without checking up the chain with policy could spark a larger conflict," Fontenrose suggested.
US officials briefed on the new authorization requests emphasized they were designed to deter rather than to escalate, and stressed that any display of force would be subject to strict rules of engagement. “Delegating down any authorities increases the likelihood that they will be used," said Brian Finucane, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group and former State Department legal adviser on military and counterterrorism affairs. "This could potentially set up a scenario like that of the tanker wars of the 1980s," Finucane suggested. "The domestic legal basis for this is far from clear."
Strategic significance: Iran's seizures of civilian tankers and attacks on Gulf neighbors have driven a wedge into the decades-long strategic ties between the United States and Arab states, officials say. The United Arab Emirates announced it would stop participating in a major US-led maritime security coalition in May following the IRGC's seizure of the Niovi. Iranian navy chief Rear Adm. Shahram Irani announced just a few days later that his country would form a naval alliance with the UAE and other countries, drawing incredulous reactions from US military officials. Expanding collective defense agreements to commercial shipping could be a first step toward satisfying longstanding security demands by Saudi Arabia and the UAE without forcing the Biden administration into formal Article 5-style obligations that would be unlikely to receive the necessary approval in Congress.
Riyadh has moreover linked its requests for formal US defense guarantees to the Biden administration's priority of seeing Saudi Arabia normalize ties with Israel.
If the administration can use the Pentagon's maritime defense proposal as part of wider security offer to Saudi Arabia in exchange normalization with Israel, that could help it gain full approval in the White House, Fontenrose said. What's next: The Biden administration cleared the maritime defense proposal for diplomatic engagement late last week, Al-Monitor's sources said. US Fifth Fleet commander Vice Adm. Brad Cooper met with Gulf Cooperation Council officials in Riyadh on Thursday to discuss "maritime collaboration for ensuring the free flow of global commerce in and near critical regional waterways," according to the Navy. Know more: Two US officials speaking on the condition of anonymity said the Justice Department moved to confiscate a second tanker carrying Iranian petroleum several days prior to Iran's attempted hijackings off the coast of Oman in early July. That US seizure has not yet been reported. It remains unconfirmed whether Iran's actions off the coast of Oman were directly related.  A few days later, following a visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Jakarta, Indonesian authorities seized an Iranian-flagged tanker accused of conducting an illegal ship-to-ship transfer in the waters of its exclusive economic zone. A spokesperson for Iran’s diplomatic mission to the United Nations declined to confirm either of those seizures in an emailed statement to Al-Monitor. "We do continue to vigorously enforce our sanctions on Iran. We don’t hesitate to take action against sanctions evaders," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said following Raisi's visit.

A wildfire near Iran’s capital triggers an explosion of mines planted around a high-security prison
AP/August 04, 2023
The report blamed the fire on the country’s current heatwave
TEHRAN: A wildfire on the outskirts of Iran’s capital triggered Friday an explosion of mines that had been planted around a high-security prison that houses political prisoners, but there were no injuries, state media reported. The official IRNA news agency said the incident happened around noon at the Evin prison on the northern outskirts of Tehran, but that it caused no damage or casualties and that firefighters extinguished the blaze. The report blamed the fire on the country’s current heatwave. Temperatures in Tehran around noon Friday were about 38 C (100 F). Iranian media in the past have mentioned the mines, which apparently are anti-personnel mines planted to deter escape attempts. In October a blaze in the prison led to death and injuries of several inmates. In online videos that circulated at the time, gunshots and explosions could be heard in the area of the prison. State media said at the time that there were clashes in one of the wards between inmates and prison personnel, and authorities blamed the fire on rioters. It came as the country was rattled by a nationwide anti-government protest, triggered by the death of a young woman in police custody.

Bridging the Gulf: UAE President's Iran visit aims for regional understanding
LBCI/August 04, 2023
The aircraft of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, which may land in Iran soon, comes after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi extended an official invitation to his Emirati counterpart to visit Tehran. This meeting presents an opportunity for both countries to address their outstanding issues, notably the dispute over the Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa, located near the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 40% of the world's oil production passes daily. However, control over these islands gives power over maritime navigation in the Gulf. In addition, regional issues such as the Syrian crisis and the Iranian nuclear file will also be on the agenda of the bilateral talks. Despite their differences, this trip aims to improve security and economic relations between the two nations. Iran has previously stated that discussions are underway to establish a joint naval force comprising Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf states, with the primary objective of ensuring the safety of navigation in the Arabian Gulf. Economically, trade between both countries continues, as they seek to enhance it further, especially after the statement by the Iranian Supreme Council of Free Trade-Industrial and Special Economic Zones expressing the readiness of the UAE Foreign Investors' Chamber to invest up to $100 billion in Iranian free trade zones. This Emirati-Iranian meeting takes place when the Gulf States are reassessing their relations with Iran despite the unresolved issues. In addition to the UAE, Kuwait and Iran are also engaged in discussions regarding the disputed offshore field known as "Arash" in Iran and "Dorra" in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, this issue will take center stage during the meeting between the Iranian Foreign Minister and his Kuwaiti counterpart after the latter received an invitation to visit Iran. So, could these Gulf-Iranian dialogues be the key to resolving the problems between these countries?

Syrian Kurds: US-led coalition needs ‘to have a clear stance’
AFP/August 04, 2023
BEIRUT: The Kurdish-led authorities in northeastern Syria on Friday called on the US-led coalition to make clear where it stands regarding Turkish drone strikes that have killed and wounded dozens of Syrian Kurdish fighters over the past months. The appeal by the local authorities — known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria — came a day after a Turkish drone hit a car, killing four members of the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and wounding two. Ankara says the main Syrian Kurdish militia is allied with Turkiye’s outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has led an insurgency against Turkiye since 1984 that has killed tens of thousands of people. Ankara has declared the PKK a terrorist group. Syrian Kurdish forces were a major US ally in the war against Daesh, which was defeated in Syria in March 2019. Thursday’s drone attack was the latest in a monthslong escalation between Turkiye and Kurdish fighters in Syria. The Syrian Democratic Forces said its six members were in a car, heading to their homes for a break when they were attacked on a road near the town of Qamishili on Thursday night.
Friday’s statement said the US-led coalition needs “to have a clear stance ... regarding the targeting of our people and fighters.” Prosecutors in Berlin said German police had arrested a Syrian national on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes including enslavement for allegedly taking part in a brutal crackdown on regime opponents. The federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement that the suspect, identified only as Ahmad H. in line with German legal practice, had been detained on July 26 in the northern city of Bremen. He was remanded in custody on Thursday.
He is accused of acting between 2012 and 2015 during Syria’s civil war as a local leader of pro-regime militiamen in Damascus tasked with helping to crush dissent. The militia operated checkpoints where “people were arrested arbitrarily so that they or their family members could be extorted for money, committed to forced labor or tortured,” prosecutors said. The fighters also plundered the homes of regime opponents, sold the spoils and kept the profits, they added. Ahmad H., who security sources said is 46, is accused of taking part “personally in the abuse of civilians.”
They say that in one incident in 2013, he ordered militiamen to “brutally torment a detained man for hours using plastic pipes.” In autumn 2014, Ahmad H. and other militiamen and members of the military secret service allegedly attacked a civilian at a checkpoint, grabbing him by the hair and beating his head on the pavement. Between December 2012 and early 2015, he is accused of twice arresting groups of 25 to 30 people and forcing them to carry sandbags to the nearby front, where they faced crossfire and were deprived of food and water while being beaten.
It was unclear when Ahmad H. came to Germany or what witnesses might have reported him to authorities and given evidence against him. In a statement the Washington DC-based Syrian Justice & Accountability Center, which tracks cases of human rights abuses in Syria, said that the arrest came after its investigation “uncovered potentially incriminating evidence,” including video evidence.

Israeli forces kill Palestinian youth during West Bank raid
Reuters/August 04, 2023
TULKARM: Israeli forces shot dead an 18-year-old Palestinian during a raid in the occupied West Bank on Friday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said, amid one of the deadliest periods in years. The Israeli military said soldiers shot at suspects who fired and hurled explosives and stones at troops operating around the northern West Bank city of Tulkarm. It said one person was hit but reported no injuries to its forces. The health ministry said Mahmoud Abu Sa’an was shot in the head in Tulkarm, during what the official Palestinian news agency WAFA said was a military operation in a nearby refugee camp that led to confrontations with Palestinians. Some 40,700 Palestinians are registered with the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees in two camps in the Tulkarm area. They are Palestinian refugees, or their descendants, who were forced out or fled their homes during the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation. Violence in the West Bank has worsened over the past 15 months amid stepped-up Israeli raids, Palestinian street attacks and rampages by Jewish settlers on Palestinian villages. The Islamist Hamas movement, which governs blockaded Gaza, mourned Abu Sa’an but did not claim him as a member. “Our people will continue their revolution until the occupation ends,” it said in a statement. Israel occupied the West Bank, among territories the Palestinians want for an independent state, in a 1967 Middle East war. It has continued to build Jewish settlements there, which most countries deem illegal.

Putin critic Alexei Navalny has 19 years added to his jail term
Reuters/August 04, 2023
MOSCOW: Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny had an extra 19 years added to his jail term on Friday in a criminal case which he and his supporters said was trumped up to keep him behind bars and out of politics for even longer. Navalny, 47, President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest domestic critic, is already serving sentences totalling 11-1/2 years on fraud and other charges that he says are also bogus. His political movement has been outlawed and declared “extremist.” A court at the IK-6 penal colony in Melekhovo, about 235 km (145 miles) east of Moscow where he is serving his sentences, was trying him on Friday on six separate criminal charges, including inciting and financing extremist activity and creating an extremist organization. The audio feed from the court was so poor that it was practically impossible to make out what the judge was saying. Navalny’s team said the judge had added 19 years to his sentences as a result of the new charges. State prosecutors had asked the court to hand him another 20 years in a penal colony. Dressed in his dark prison uniform and flanked by his lawyers, Navalny smiled at times as he listened to the judge. In a message posted on social media a day earlier Navalny had predicted he would get a long jail term, but had said it didn’t really matter because he was also threatened with separate terrorism charges that could bring another decade. Navalny had said the purpose of giving him extra jail time was to frighten Russians, but had urged them not to let that happen and to think hard about how best to resist what he called the “villains and thieves in the Kremlin.”The charges relate to his role in his now defunct movement inside Russia, which the authorities said had been trying to foment a revolution by seeking to destabilize the socio-political situation.

Ukrainian orphans taste freedom after fleeing Russian occupation
Reuters/August 04, 2023
KYIV: There it was, on a terrace behind a Kyiv cafe. A ping pong table. After nearly a year and a half locked away in hiding under Russian occupation, followed by a daring escape last month, Ilona Pavliuk, 16, could hardly believe it was ok to just stop and play. “People are so nice here, they will teach you even if you’re not good at it. They can even play together with you,” she said. “There was no ping pong in occupation, children don’t even play soccer in the stadiums. There is a stadium in Nova Kakhovka that no one plays in any more.” Her ailing father had kept Ilona and her brother Maksym, 15, hidden in the house since the Russians came to their village, Pishchane, on the south bank of the Dnipro River, at the start of their invasion last year. “I couldn’t go anywhere, because my father was worried. He said that the Russians could rape me. Or kill me: there had been such cases. He didn’t even let me go to the park — it’s 100 meters from our house! So, I didn’t go out, I stayed at home,” Ilona recounted at a hostel in Kyiv, tugging absentmindedly at Valera, her fuzzy toy penguin. “I wasn’t studying, I haven’t finished school. I don’t have any documents. So, I am considered a dummy, I guess.” Last month, their father finally died of AIDS, the same illness that killed their mother a decade ago, leaving them orphans.
“I knew I had to leave, because they would have taken me to Russia, given me a Russian passport, and sent me to an orphanage,” Ilona said. “One or two days after I left, they came to my house, and I wasn’t there. What if I had stayed?“President Vladimir Putin claims to have annexed Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. Moscow says it has gathered hundreds of thousands of orphans and vulnerable children there, taking them to Russia for their safety. Ukraine says this amounts to forced deportation to erase the Ukrainian identity of a generation of children, a crime against humanity for which Putin has already been indicted by the International Criminal Court in the Hague. Ilona and Maksym were able to escape with the help of Save Ukraine, a charity that maintains an underground network inside occupied parts of Ukraine and Russia itself, helping children flee. It says it has rescued 200 children so far.
Children whose parents die are the most urgent cases, because the Russian-installed occupation authorities will swiftly impose legal guardianship, said Save Ukraine’s founder, Mykola Kuleba.
“All children who are left without parents are moved by the Russians across their territory,” he said. “They assign a guardian or place the child into an adoptive family. After that, no possible agreements can work, and it is very hard to get a child back. This is why it’s crucial to bring back a child as fast as possible, before this guardian appears.” Save Ukraine moved fast for Maksym and Ilona. Within days of their father’s death, volunteers inside Russian-held territory helped the children flee, first to Russia itself, then to Belarus, then across the border and home at last to Ukraine. Details of the journey are kept confidential to protect activists along the route. Ilona and Maksym are now living at the group’s Kyiv hostel. Once they have Ukrainian passports sorted, they will go stay with their late father’s ex-wife, now a refugee in Slovakia. For Ilona, it only hit home that she was safe at last when she saw the border guard who let her enter Ukraine at the Belarus border. A fresh tear rolls down her cheek as she recalls how she wept on her arrival. “When I saw the first Ukrainian soldier, I started to cry. He asked, ‘Why are you crying?’, and I replied, ‘Because I’m in Ukraine!’”

Lithuania declares more than 1,000 Belarusians and Russians to be national security risks
AP/August 04, 2023
VILNIUS: Lithuania declared more than a thousand citizens of Russia and Belarus living in the country to be threats to national security on Friday and said it was stripping them of their permanent residency permits.
The decision comes after the government asked the Russians and Belarusians to answer a questionnaire that included questions about their views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the status of Crimea, the Ukrainian territory which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Lithuania, a Baltic nation that declared its independence from the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago, is a democracy that belongs to NATO and the European Union. It has been a strong backer of Ukraine and also a place of refuge in recent years for many who have fled an authoritarian crackdown in neighboring Belarus and increased repression in Russia. The Migration Department said Friday that it had established that 1,164 Belarusian and Russian citizens residing in Lithuania posed a threat to national security, a decision that was based on an evaluation of public and non-public information. It said 910 of those were Belarusian citizens and 254 Russian citizens. How people answered the questionnaire was taken into consideration in deciding whether to grant or deny residence, according to the Migration Department, the government office that carried out the survey. Those deemed to be national security threats are only a fraction of the Belarusians and Russians living in Lithuania. According to the Migration Department, more than 58,000 Belarusian citizens and 16,000 Russian citizens are currently residing in Lithuania. They are required to renew their residence permits every year to three years, depending on the application status. Those stripped of permits can appeal the decision in court. Others will have up to a month to leave the country, according to the Migration Department. There was no immediate reaction from the Russian or Belarusian governments. Viktor Voroncov, a businessman who moved from Russia several years ago, learned Lithuanian and obtained citizenship, said he agreed with the move. “I know many Russians who served in the Soviet and later in Putin’s army. They are married to Lithuanian wives, they live here, maintain close contacts with comrades in arms back in Russia and are spreading Kremlin propaganda constantly,” Voroncov said. “Lithuania is a democratic country and tolerates different views. Even their propaganda was OK until the war started, but things have changed and they must go,” he said. Lithuania also has an ethnic Russian minority that makes up about 5 percent of the population. They are citizens of Lithuania and were not required to answer the questionnaire.

West African leaders plan military intervention in Niger
LBCI/August 04, 2023
West African defense chiefs have formulated a strategy for a potential military intervention to reverse last week's coup in Niger, according to an official of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The plan includes details on how and when to deploy forces.

French spy row as Macron accuses intelligence chief of failure over Niger coup
Arab News/August 04, 2023
LONDON: French President Emmanuel Macron has criticized the chief of his country’s foreign spy agency over a perceived failure to predict the coup in Niger, The Times reported on Friday. France, which controlled the Sahel country as a colonial possession until 1960, relies heavily on Niger to source uranium for its nuclear energy system, and has a vested interest in keeping it secure from terrorism and conflict. Macron said Bernard Emie, the 64-year-old director of the Directorate-General for External Security, should have foreseen the coup, which would have allowed France to prevent the deposition of President Mohamed Bazoum, a key ally. Coup leader Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani has been set a Sunday deadline by the Economic Community of West African States to release Bazoum. Juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have offered to defend the coup leaders by sending troops, sparking fears of a regional conflict.
France has evacuated 1,079 people from the capital Niamey after its embassy was attacked. Macron also accused spy chiefs of falling short of expectations regarding the 2021 coup in Mali. He said: “We can see that the DGSE’s way of functioning is not satisfactory. When you don’t see anything coming, there’s a problem.” Tensions are said to have peaked during a French defense council meeting on the weekend at the Elysee Palace. Emie’s job may be under threat as a result of Macron’s accusations, with the president having the power to dismiss leading intelligence officials. The spy chief has defended himself, saying: “I wrote a report on the situation in Niger in January.”Gen. Christophe Gomart, former chief of another French intelligence service, said the DGSE’s risk research may have been overlooked by Macron. Gomart said: “We perhaps did not take into account enough what could happen in Niger but that is both at a political level and at an intelligence level.” He added that Tchiana decided to initiate the coup soon after learning that he was about to be dismissed from his role as chief of the presidential guard. Gomart said: “Did France fail to anticipate this sacking and the reaction of Gen. Tchiani, who did not accept his dismissal even though he is 63 years old? It’s difficult to say.”

Trump pleads not guilty to election conspiracy charges
Agence France Presse/August 04/2023
Former president Donald Trump has pled not guilty to criminal charges that he conspired to overturn the results of the 2020 election and defraud the American people. Trump, the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, entered his plea during a nearly 30-minute hearing at the same Washington courthouse where hundreds of his supporters have been convicted for their roles in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. "Not guilty," Trump said after magistrate judge Moxila Upadhyaya read the four criminal counts -- and the potential maximum prison sentences -- in the 45-page indictment brought by special counsel Jack Smith. The 77-year-old has already been charged in two other criminal cases, and the new conspiracy charges raise the prospect of his being further embroiled in legal proceedings at the height of next year's election campaign. Speaking to reporters at Reagan National airport before leaving Washington on his private plane, Trump said the cases brought against him were "persecution of a political opponent." "This is a very sad day for America," he said. "This is the persecution of the person that's leading by very, very substantial numbers in the Republican primary and leading (President Joe) Biden by a lot. "So if you can't beat him, you persecute him or you prosecute him," he said. "We can't let this happen in America." Later on Thursday, Trump quipped on his Truth Social account that considering he had to journey "to a filthy, dirty, falling apart & very unsafe Washington" for his arraignment, "it was a very good day!" The judge set the next hearing in the high-stakes case for August 28 before U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan, who will preside over the eventual trial. "I can guarantee to everybody there will be a fair process and a fair trial," Upadhyaya said.
'Fueled by lies'
Security was tight around the E. Barrett Prettyman federal courthouse where the hearing was held, with metal barricades blocking access and police patrolling the perimeter. Small groups of demonstrators holding placards milled about outside along with curious tourists. "Jail Trump Forever," read one sign. "Trump 24," read another. "We wanted to see it," said Dave Werner, 52, of Houston, Texas, who was visiting the capital with his son Liam, 12. "It's a little bit being part of history." The accusations that Trump and six unnamed co-conspirators plotted to upend the 2020 election are the most serious of the cases threatening to derail his White House comeback bid. Biden, for his part, was asked during a bike ride while vacationing in Delaware if he would follow the arraignment. His response was a curt "No." Smith, a former war crimes prosecutor at the Hague, has charged Trump with conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy and obstruction of an official proceeding and attempting to disenfranchise voters with his false claims that he won the election. "The purpose of the conspiracy was to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 presidential election by using knowingly false claims of election fraud," the indictment said. Smith linked Trump's actions following his loss directly to the attack on the Capitol, which he called an "unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy.""It was fueled by lies," Smith said.
Multiple cases
The election plot allegedly included attempts to pressure Mike Pence into throwing out Electoral College votes at the January 6 joint session of Congress called to certify Biden's win, which the vice president eventually refused to do. Trump is scheduled to go on trial in Florida in May of next year on charges that he took top secret government documents to his Mar-A-Lago estate in Florida and refused to return them. The twice-impeached former president also faces criminal charges in New York for allegedly paying election-eve hush money to a porn star. He has pleaded not guilty in both those cases. Chutkan, 61, who will preside over Trump's trial, is an appointee of former Democratic president Barack Obama and she and Trump have a legal history. Chutkan ruled against Trump in 2021 when he filed a suit asserting executive privilege to block documents from being handed over to the congressional committee investigating the attack on the Capitol. Chutkan has also heard nearly three dozen cases involving participants in the Capitol riot and has handed out stiff sentences. As president, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for seeking political dirt on Biden from Ukraine and over the events of January 6 but was acquitted by the Senate both times.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on August 04-05/2023
A Cry for Help from Palestinians
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/August 04, 2023
The two events -- in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon -- received little attention from the international community and media, most likely because Israel was not involved. Needless to say, the United Nations Security Council was not asked to hold an emergency session to discuss the crimes committed by Palestinians against Palestinians.
A statement issued by a group, the Unified Command of the Intifada in the Gaza Strip, noted in response to the protests that "the time of silence over oppression and the exploitation of religion to kill has ended." The group was referring to Hamas's continued repressive measures against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including a crackdown on journalists, political rivals, and human rights activists. It was also referring to Hamas's use of Islam to justify its policies and measures against the residents of the Gaza Strip.
Among those arrested by Hamas security officers was Batoul Abu Salimeh, a 14-year-old girl from Jabalya. A 15-year-old boy from Rafah, who asked not to be identified, said Hamas thugs beat him in the leg and that he is afraid to go to hospital for treatment.
The protests in the Gaza Strip were organized by local Palestinian youth movements to put pressure on Hamas to solve the problems of poverty and unemployment. The protesters also demanded an end to the shortage of electricity and gas supplies.
It is no secret that Hamas has been investing millions of dollars in building tunnels and manufacturing weapons to attack Israel, while ignoring the dire economic crisis in the Gaza Strip.
Reports from the Gaza Strip -- almost completely ignored by the international media -- said that Hamas security officers stormed the Abu Yousef al-Najjar Hospital in Rafah and abducted three Palestinian men who were wounded during the protests: Midhat Daoud, Nizar al-Liddawi, and Wissam Rasras.
Hamas officers also physically assaulted Palestinian journalist Walid Abdel Rahman, a correspondent for the Palestinian Authority's Palestine TV, while he was covering the demonstrations in Jabalya.
Rami Farajallah, member of the International Federation of Journalists, criticized Hamas for cracking down on Palestinian journalists who were reporting about the peaceful protests in the Gaza Strip.
A Ramallah-based Palestinian NGO, the Independent Commission for Human Rights (ICHR) called on Hamas to release all those who were arrested during the protests... Hamas security services detained 43 Palestinians from all areas of the Gaza Strip... at least 15 Palestinians were wounded, with injuries including bruises, cuts, abrasions and fractures, as a result of being assaulted with kicks, punches, knives, clubs and iron bars.
ICHR called on Hamas to respect and promote the right to freedom of opinion, expression and peaceful assembly....
"We, the people of Gaza, ask you to look into the crimes of the Hamas organization... and mention those crimes. We call on you to protect us from this organization that does not stop kidnapping and torturing citizens inside Gaza.... We call upon you once gain to protect us and rescue us from the Hamas organization as soon as possible. " — Hamzeh al-Masri Palestinian political activist, in an appeal to human rights organizations, August 1, 2023.
Meanwhile, in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon, at least 11 Palestinians were killed and 40 wounded in armed clashes between rival gangs, and at least 2,000 Palestinians were forced to flee their homes during the three days of fighting.
The voices of the anti-Israel activists around the world who regularly rush to condemn Israel for seeking to defend itself against Palestinian terrorism have gone silent when it really comes to protecting Palestinians. The activists, who describe themselves as "pro-Palestinian," do not actually care about Palestinians, especially those living in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's refugee camps.
The alleged distress of "pro-Palestinian" individuals and pressure groups has nothing to do with a genuine concern for the Palestinians -- and everything to do with a racist hatred of Jews.
On July 30, thousands of Palestinians in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip took to the streets to protest harsh living conditions and a shortage of power and gas. Several protesters were wounded, some critically, when Hamas security officers assaulted them with kicks, punches, knives, clubs and iron bars. The same international media that have been reporting obsessively about Israel's counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank, have totally ignored Hamas's brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters.
On July 30, thousands of Palestinians in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip took to the streets to protest harsh living conditions and a shortage of power and gas. The protests, held under the banner "We want to live!", reflected growing discontent among the Palestinians against the Iranian-backed Hamas, which seized control of the Gaza Strip through a violent and bloody coup in the summer of 2007.
At the same time as the Palestinians were demonstrating in the Gaza Strip, armed clashes erupted in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, where at least 11 people were killed, including a senior Palestinian security official, and several others were injured.
The two events -- in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon -- received little attention from the international community and media, most likely because Israel was not involved. Needless to say, the United Nations Security Council was not asked to hold an emergency session to discuss the crimes committed by Palestinians against Palestinians.
According to Palestinian sources, several protesters were wounded, some critically, when Hamas security officers used force to disperse the protests in the Gaza Strip. The protests erupted in several areas there, including Nusseirat, Khan Yunis, Jabalya, Rafah, Bani Suheila, and Shajjaiyeh, the sources said.
A statement issued by a group, the Unified Command of the Intifada in the Gaza Strip, noted in response to the protests that "the time of silence over oppression and the exploitation of religion to kill has ended." The group was referring to Hamas's continued repressive measures against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including a crackdown on journalists, political rivals, and human rights activists. It was also referring to Hamas's use of Islam to justify its policies and measures against the residents of the Gaza Strip.
The group urged Hamas to release all those who were arrested during the protests and bring to trial the security officers "whose hands were stained with blood." Among those arrested by Hamas security officers was Batoul Abu Salimeh, a 14-year-old girl from Jabalya. A 15-year-old boy from Rafah, who asked not to be identified, said Hamas thugs beat him in the leg and that he is afraid to go to hospital for treatment.
The protests in the Gaza Strip were organized by local Palestinian youth movements to put pressure on Hamas to solve the problems of poverty and unemployment. The protesters also demanded an end to the shortage of electricity and gas.
It is no secret that Hamas has been investing millions of dollars in building tunnels and manufacturing weapons to attack Israel, while ignoring the dire economic crisis in the Gaza Strip. Consequently, many Palestinians have been fleeing over the past few years in search of work and a better life in Europe and other countries.Reports from the Gaza Strip -- almost completely ignored by the international media -- said that Hamas security officers stormed the Abu Yousef al-Najjar Hospital in Rafah and abducted three Palestinian men who were wounded during the protests: Midhat Daoud, Nizar al-Liddawi, and Wissam Rasras. Hamas officers also physically assaulted Palestinian journalist Walid Abdel Rahman, a correspondent for the Palestinian Authority's Palestine TV, while he was covering the demonstrations in Jabalya. Abdel Rahman said he was beaten by officers who identified themselves as members of Hamas's Internal Security force. The Palestinian Journalists Syndicate condemned the assault on Abdel Rahman as a "flagrant violation of freedom of the press" and urged human rights organizations to intervene to halt such attacks and hold those responsible accountable.
Hamas security officers also arrested journalist Ehab al-Fasfous while he was covering the protests in Khan Yunis.
Rami Farajallah, member of the International Federation of Journalists, criticized Hamas for cracking down on Palestinian journalists who were reporting about the peaceful protests in the Gaza Strip. He called on Hamas to respect public freedoms, including freedom of expression, and to stop its repressive measures against journalists and those protesting against economic hardship.
A Ramallah-based Palestinian NGO, the Independent Commission for Human Rights (ICHR) called on Hamas to release all those who were arrested during the protests. ICHR revealed that Hamas security services detained 43 Palestinians from all areas of the Gaza Strip. It said that at least 15 Palestinians were wounded, with injuries including bruises, cuts, abrasions and fractures, as a result of being assaulted with kicks, punches, knives, clubs and iron bars.
ICHR called on Hamas to respect and promote the right to freedom of opinion, expression and peaceful assembly, and halt any measures that affect the right of citizens to organize public gatherings.
In an appeal to human rights organizations, Palestinian political activist Hamzeh al-Masri wrote:
"We, the people of Gaza, ask you to look into the crimes of the Hamas organization... and mention those crimes. We call on you to protect us from this organization that does not stop kidnapping and torturing citizens inside Gaza. And on this date 7/30/2023 there was a peaceful demonstration in Gaza calling for an improvement in the living conditions and [an end to] the severe injustice that we are exposed to in terms of poverty, hunger, permanent power outages, the imposition of heavy taxes on us, and the lack of jobs.... Hamas beat demonstrators, shot at their homes, and threatened them with weapons.... We call upon you once gain to protect us and rescue us from the Hamas organization as soon as possible. Watch all these crimes on this channel https://t.me/hamza20300"
Meanwhile, in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon, at least 11 Palestinians were killed and 40 wounded in armed clashes between rival gangs, and at least 2,000 Palestinians were forced to flee their homes during the three days of fighting. The clashes erupted after the assassination of Fathi al-Armoushi, a senior Palestinian security officer, and three of his bodyguards.
The same international media that have been reporting obsessively about Israel's counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank over the past 18 months, have totally ignored Hamas's brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters and journalists in the Gaza Strip. The same applies to the bloody clashes in the refugee camp in Lebanon, where more than 2,000 Palestinians have been displaced as a result of the fighting. When Palestinians beat or kill Palestinians, the international media choose to look the other way.
The voices of the anti-Israel activists around the world who regularly rush to condemn Israel for seeking to defend itself against Palestinian terrorism have gone silent when it really comes to protecting Palestinians. The activists, who describe themselves as "pro-Palestinian," do not actually care about Palestinians, especially those living in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's refugee camps. If Israel cannot be blamed, the world does not care.
The silence shows that the "pro-Palestinian" messaging is just dressed-up antisemitism. The alleged distress of "pro-Palestinian" individuals and pressure groups has nothing to do with a genuine concern for the Palestinians -- and everything to do with a racist hatred of Jews.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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How soft power can boost Turkish-Gulf relations
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/August 04, 2023
The regional order in the Middle East is undergoing a serious shift due to the normalization of relations among many regional states, domestic transformations within the Gulf nations, and seismic crises among international actors that are affecting the policies of the regional actors.
Turkish-Gulf relations offer an interesting case study on the broader changes in Middle East politics. Following the normalization efforts of the past two years, Turkish-Gulf relations have entered a new phase based on strategies that seek to maximize economic and political gains. The reciprocal visits of the Turkish and Gulf leaders, along with the agreements signed during these visits, lead us to view the rapprochement process through a politico-economic context.
However, studies suggest that, after any rapprochement process, especially at a time of strategic reordering, states should place a strong emphasis on soft power — cultural relations or, in other words, people-to people relations — to create long-lasting channels of dialogue and cooperation. In order to build crisis-resilient relations between Turkiye and the Gulf states, soft power tools should be employed for more effective engagement.
The previous deterioration of bilateral ties between Turkiye and the Gulf states was due to their limited engagement and the lack of understanding of each other’s politico-ideological perspectives and regional visions. While their economic and political relations were severely tested due to the differences between their respective policymakers, the people-to-people relations were also affected due to the adverse effects of these tensions on the culture, education and media sectors.
In the rapidly changing geopolitical context of the decade ahead, finding ways to create new areas of cooperation between Turkiye and the Gulf states becomes even more valuable and necessary. Strong cultural and educational relations between Turkiye and the Gulf states can seriously contribute to sustainable engagement, even when political relations are going through a difficult time. Turkiye-friendly public opinion in the Gulf states and Gulf-friendly public opinion in Turkiye can strengthen mutual relationships. To build mutual trust and understanding among these societies and encourage popular support for Turkish-Gulf relations, cultural and educational programs are vital.
When people have direct experience of each other’s countries through study, they gain a deeper understanding of the culture, language and society. This also helps in building trust and sympathy in the country where they study. The connection built between people through the educational channel is definitely more resilient to the ups and downs of political relations.
Strong cultural and educational relations can seriously contribute to sustainable engagement.
For example, Kuwait University and Qatar University offer year-long Arabic language scholarships for Turkish people. The other Gulf states could follow the same path and offer such scholarships to help in maintaining people-to-people connections. In the same vein, Turkiye has some effective cultural institutions, such as the Yunus Emre Institute, which promotes learning of the Turkish language and cultural norms worldwide. The institute currently has a branch only in Qatar. Similar offices in other Gulf states would open the doors for dialogue on mutually valued but less politically sensitive areas, such as culture and language.
Since the end of the Cold War, Western countries have engaged in efforts to build cultural centers abroad, such as the Goethe Institute or British Council. The EU also has an effective student exchange program, Erasmus. With the same aim, Ankara and the Gulf capitals can utilize existing programs, such as Turkiye’s Mevlana Exchange Programme, or create a unique new platform for student exchanges.
Through cultural and educational programs, the bond between Turkish and Gulf societies will be created not with force, but through deep understanding of each other’s values. Besides the people, the states that these people belong to will also benefit from this engagement. Studies suggest that cultural institutions have helped advance their respective countries’ strategic interests in terms of protecting their influence and security in a competitive world.
Another possible area of cooperation is the media, which has become an integral part of diplomatic relations because it plays an important role in transforming ties. One of the areas that was influenced by the former tense relations between Turkiye and the Gulf countries was the media. One way to move forward in this sector would be to create a regional media forum organized by the two sides, as there is a serious need for dialogue among media organizations. There could be exchange programs for Turkish and Gulf journalists. For a better cycle of knowledge in which the media feeds society and vice versa, a better understanding of the cultural and political context is crucial, as it remains key to achieving progress during this rapprochement process.
Both Turkiye and the Gulf countries have influential tools for cultural, educational and media dialogue between institutions and the public. Positive perceptions gained through cultural relations can leave a long-lasting impression, increasing people’s willingness to engage with the Gulf states or Turkiye throughout their lives. The success of soft power engagement depends on human investment for the long-term, so that it can overcome any future challenges in bilateral ties. Thus, just as economic investments are key to the flourishing of Turkish-Gulf relations, investing in young people — who will offer important voices within society in the future and eventually play a role in the opportunities and challenges in Turkish-Gulf relations — is equally important.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

Netanyahu unlikely to make concessions on normalization with Muslim world
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib//Arab News/August 04, 2023
The US received an important wake-up call with the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal that was brokered by China. The significance of the March deal goes beyond the normalization between the two regional foes — it also means that Beijing’s role in the Gulf is increasing. The US definitely does not want China to become the new security guarantor in the region.
It would be another blow to the US if countries in the Middle East started accepting the yuan for its oil exports to China. So far, there has been no clear indication that the petroyuan will replace the petrodollar, but the issue is being talked about and that is in itself a threat to the US’ hegemony over the oil market and the US dollar’s supremacy as a worldwide reference currency. So, this would not only be a blow to American influence in the Middle East, but also a setback for Washington in terms of its competition with China. While the American discourse was previously signaling its disengagement from the region, we now suddenly see the US rushing back to court Saudi Arabia.
What we see is overoptimism from the American side about an Israeli normalization deal with the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has always put Palestine at the center of any normalization talks with Israel. In 2002, it launched the Arab Peace Initiative that Israel has rejected. Saudi Arabia is also the center of the Islamic world; hence its support for the Palestinian cause — a cause that has taken on a central significance in the Islamic world.
Thomas Friedman, writing for The New York Times last week, assumed that Biden would coerce Israel into making concessions and that Benjamin Netanyahu would give up his lunatic far-right allies and replace them with more moderate ones. However, this is probably driven by wishful thinking and is an overestimation of the US’ leverage over Israel.
To start with, Netanyahu is more concerned with his constituency than with the US or any other foreign power. The Israeli prime minister will not seek to please America at the expense of upsetting his voter base. It was his constituency that gave him the premiership, not the US. Another issue is that Washington, as revealed by Friedman — who is supposedly close to the Biden administration — is expecting Netanyahu to change course. To do that, his allies will have to be convinced of the importance of normalization with the Muslim world and they will have to relay that to their voters. This is far-fetched.
For the settlers, the extremist factions and the dogmatic people in Israel, acquiring the land that they claim God gave them is far more important than normalizing with Muslim countries. A settler driven by ideology is probably far more interested in Hebron than in having the freedom to travel to these countries.
The other assumption Friedman makes is that Netanyahu can change his allies’ minds. This is not as easy as it might look. If Netanyahu breaks with his allies, he will lose his majority and the country will head to new elections. And he will not necessarily be able to garner the support of the more moderate factions. He only allied himself with Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich and their ilk because he was desperate to win a majority and return to the premiership. The downside of him losing power now could be that he goes to jail. Will Netanyahu take this risk?
The Israeli prime minister will not seek to please America at the expense of upsetting his voter base
We have to remember that the Netanyahu coalition won the last election by a relatively small margin. His bloc won 2.36 million votes, while the anti-Netanyahu camp was able to garner 2.33 million votes, a difference of only 30,000. And some in the opposition camp say that Netanyahu’s win could be attributed to their own missteps, as they were disorganized and did not have a consistent message. Their defeat was also attributed to the fact former Prime Minister Yair Lapid did not give his constituency anything tangible. While Lapid hyped up peace with the Palestinians, he did not take any serious step toward it.
If the country were to go to the polls again now, the anti-Netanyahu camp might win, especially as a result of the judicial overhaul that has upset a lot of Israelis. The only alternative that could prevent another election would be if Netanyahu broke with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich and replaced them with Lapid and Benny Gantz. Would they join him? I doubt it. As mentioned, they would have a chance of winning on their own if a new election were to be held.
There is also an overestimation of how much the US can pressure Israel, especially in the Arab world. Israel gets $3.8 billion in aid from the US every year. But Israel could very much live without this aid. The other help the US offers to Israel is its veto at the UN Security Council, which is a flag Uncle Sam waves every time a resolution condemning Tel Aviv is proposed. However, when a resolution condemning Israel’s illegal settlements was not vetoed by the Obama administration, nothing happened.
Most importantly, from a security perspective, Netanyahu does not need to have peace with the Palestinians
The other perk for Israel could be the economic benefits that can come from normalizing with Muslim countries. However, Israel is already a prosperous nation, with a per capita gross domestic product of $55,540, which is the highest in the Middle East after Qatar. Normalization would probably add to this prosperity. It would be a cherry on top but it is not essential to the country’s economic growth. Israel has a vibrant economy and has trade relations with most countries around the world. Again, could you convince the ideological settler that a few billion dollars on top of the country’s GDP is worth relinquishing the West Bank for? Not really.
Most importantly, from a security perspective, Netanyahu does not need to have peace with the Palestinians. He can keep them contained using coercive measures. While the anti-Netanyahu, pro-peace camp has been warning of a possible third intifada if there is no proper settlement, the Israeli military machine has been able to pacify the Palestinians, at least for now. Hence, it is unlikely that Netanyahu will make any concessions, or at least any meaningful ones that could make the American plan happen.
Ultimately, Netanyahu is a political survivor who thinks from one election cycle to the next and, for the moment, his No. 1 priority is to keep the premiership and stay out of jail.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

The US has no Afghan policy … it badly needs one
Luke Coffey/Arab News/August 04, 2023
US officials met representatives of the Taliban in Qatar last week, the first face-to-face talks since the militants took over Afghanistan two years ago.
The US does not recognize the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan, but it agreed to engage on specific issues. There was no shortage of those. The top issues were the growing humanitarian crisis, transnational terrorism, the poor economic situation, and the continued breakdown in women’s rights. After the meeting one thing became clear: the Biden administration has no coherent strategy to deal with Afghanistan.
In fact, Afghanistan has been a disaster for the administration, and it has only itself to blame. Donald Trump agreed to a deal with the Taliban in February 2020 for the phased withdrawal of US forces by May 2021. This was as the starting point that led to the Afghan government’s collapse and the Taliban’s return to power.
In January 2021, when Biden took office, instead of canceling Trump’s flawed agreement he merely postponed America’s withdrawal from May to September. By July, almost all US and international forces had left. On Aug. 15, the Taliban took Kabul. Shockingly, by September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban controlled more of Afghanistan than it did back then.
Since the last US soldier left Kabul airport in August 2021, after two decades focused intensely and at times exclusively on Afghanistan, the Biden administration has had no real Afghan policy to speak of. This needs to change.
A good example of this is counterterrorism. Biden has been in denial about the terrorist situation in Afghanistan. As recently as last month, he said the Taliban had been cooperating on terrorism and there was no Al-Qaeda in the country.
After the talks last week in Doha, the American delegation “took note” of the Taliban's “continuing commitment not to allow Afghanistan to be used as a platform for attacks on the US and its allies,” and acknowledged a “decrease in large-scale terrorist attacks against Afghan civilians.” This assessment is not only laughable, it also contradicts all the available evidence.
It is obvious that any decrease in terrorist attacks against Afghan civilians is because the Taliban are no longer leading an insurgency. Meanwhile transnational terrorist groups have flourished. The most recent report on the peace and security of Afghanistan by the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team lays out in detail the growing transnational terrorist threats that have evolved in Afghanistan since the Taliban took over two years ago.
Shockingly, by September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban controlled more of Afghanistan than it did back then.
An estimated 21 terrorist groups operate freely in Afghanistan. Some have global ambitions, while some are more regionally focused. Almost all enjoy the hospitality and protection of the Taliban, the two most dangerous being Al-Qaeda and Daesh. Senior members of Al-Qaeda, who had not set foot in Afghanistan for almost two decades, are now roaming freely. Al-Qaeda’s reestablished presence in Afghanistan was best illustrated when its leader, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul last summer.
But terrorism is only one of many problems the White House has when it comes to developing a coherent Afghan policy. Another pressing issue is the status of the Afghans who helped the US over the years and feared for their lives as the Taliban marched on Kabul. Tens of thousands of Afghans were brought to the US in the final weeks of the American military presence. Almost two years later, Congress and the White House have failed to pass the legislation to give these Afghans a legal pathway to remain in the US. There’s the added complication of the tens of thousands of Afghans who were promised evacuation but remain stranded there under Taliban control.
There is also no strategy for the groups emerging in opposition to the Taliban. The National Resistance Front, based in the Panjshir valley but active across northern provinces, continues to be the only genuine and non-extremist armed opposition force against Taliban rule. Though the US worked closely with the National Resistance Front’s predecessor, the Northern Alliance, in the early days after the 9/11 attacks, there has been no public statement of support or any attempt by the US government to engage in dialogue with the organization. Last summer, a US State Department spokesman said: “We do not support organized violent opposition to the Taliban, and we would discourage other powers from doing so as well.”
As the US grapples with developing an Afghan policy, it should not be tempted to let the recent talks in Doha be the start of a process in which Washington formally recognizes the Taliban government. The Taliban would benefit from such legitimacy and the international community should do everything it can to prevent it. Since the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan has been on a downward spiral. There is an acute humanitarian crisis. The Taliban promised that young girls could go to school, but this still has not happened. The internal divisions inside the Taliban leadership and the overall security situation add to the humanitarian crisis: it is not too dissimilar from the 1990s when the Taliban were last in power.
Ignoring the problems and challenges in Afghanistan in the 1990s planted the seed for the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This lesson must be learned. Although American policymakers might have “Afghan fatigue,” this is no excuse for not having a policy.
Instead of pointless talks with the Taliban, the US should be working with international and regional partners to develop a comprehensive and coherent strategy for the country before it is too late.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey

Question: “Could an alien deception be part of the end times?”
GotQuestions.org//August 04, 2023
Answer: We know that the events surrounding the end times, as described in the Bible, will include a powerful deception (Matthew 24:24; 2 Thessalonians 2:11). Recently, interest has been rising in the theory that this deception will include alien beings supposedly from another planet. Although the Bible gives us no word about whether or not aliens exist—there is no inclusion of them in the creation account in Genesis, and no mention of them elsewhere—the Bible does tell us about visitors from another world—the spiritual world.
Since the beginning, instances of demons (fallen angels) visiting the earth have been witnessed and recorded. We know from Eve’s encounter with Satan that demons are interested in monitoring (and altering) the progress of humanity. They want to be involved, with the goal of drawing humanity away from the worship of God and turning mankind’s attention instead to them. Another notable instance of their interaction with us is found in Genesis 6:4 with the arrival of the “sons of God.” The Genesis account states that these powerful beings had sexual intercourse with women and produced a super race of beings known as the Nephilim. This sounds like the stuff of science fiction, yet it is right there in the Bible. There are striking similarities between this account and the accounts of other ancient cultures. The writings of the ancient Sumerians, for example (who were the first to produce a written language) mention the presence of the “Anunnaki” who were deities that came from heaven to dwell on earth with men. It is also interesting to note that the Sumerians’ gods often came to them in the form of snakes.
These accounts, seen alongside the amazing things created by ancient man, make it possible to theorize that demons, in the form of beings from another world, came to earth, bringing spectacular wisdom and knowledge to men, and “intermarrying” with their daughters in an attempt to draw men away from God. We already see from Eve’s experience with the serpent that demons will use the temptation of superior wisdom to ensnare man and that man is very susceptible to it.
Could the end times include a similar alien deception? The Bible doesn’t directly address the issue, but it is certainly plausible, for a variety of reasons. First, the Bible tells us that the world will unite under the power of the Antichrist. In order to achieve an agreement between all the world’s religions, it would make sense for the “uniter” to come from an entirely new source—an extraterrestrial source. It is hard to imagine one religion becoming head of all the others, unless new, unearthly knowledge were the source of the appeal and power of the new “religion.” This would be in keeping with past deceptions and would be a very effective way to deceive a large number of people.
Second, this deception could provide an answer to the problem of earth’s origins. The scientific theory that the evolution of life on earth was spontaneously generated still has no answer for life’s beginnings. Many claim that there is evidence for a “big bang,” but there is no explanation for what caused the supposed big bang to occur. If alien beings arrived and gave us an extraterrestrial explanation for life on earth, the origins of the world religions, and even the origins of our planet, it would be very persuasive.
That said, we should not fear. The Lord has said that He will not leave us or forsake us, and that He will protect us (1 Kings 8:57; Matthew 10:31; Isaiah 41:10). Demons / angels are not omnipotent, nor are they omnipresent. Jesus said that in the end times His appearing would be like lightning—easily visible to all. He said to be wary of any being that says “I am the Christ” or any group that says “He’s over there” or “He’s in here” (Matthew 24:23-24). He said that vultures gather around a dead body, meaning that if you see a group of people gathering around someone claiming to be Christ, that person is death and a false prophet.
We should be wary of any person or being that produces signs and wonders without biblical fidelity or the presence of obedience to the Lord Jesus, anyone who provides a way to unite the world religions or governments (Revelation 13:5-8), any being that promotes unnatural sexual relationships (Genesis 6:4; Jude 1:6-7), and of course, any person who denies that Jesus is God (2 John 1:7). Furthermore, anyone who presents a “substitute” Jesus, who represents Him as “a god but not the God” or who claims He was merely a good teacher, simply a human, or even a super-human or an alien creature, is a deceiver.
Lastly, if demons manifesting as aliens are part of the end times, we should remember that they, too, are created beings subject to a sovereign God and ultimately answerable to Him. Whether in alien form or not, the descriptions of demons in Revelation are frightening (Revelation 9:1-12), but we should not fear those who can only kill the body. Instead, we should only fear the One who can kill the body and the soul in hell (Matthew 10:28). No matter what happens to us on the earth, we should trust that the Lord is the Savior, Redeemer, and Protector of the souls of those who put their trust in Him (Psalm 9:10; 22:5).