English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 16/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.september16.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
I told you that you would die in your sins,
for you will die in your sins unless you believe that I am he
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
John 08/21-27/:”Again he said to them, ‘I am going away, and you will search for
me, but you will die in your sin. Where I am going, you cannot come.’Then the
Jews said, ‘Is he going to kill himself? Is that what he means by saying, “Where
I am going, you cannot come”?’He said to them, ‘You are from below, I am from
above; you are of this world, I am not of this world. I told you that you would
die in your sins, for you will die in your sins unless you believe that I am
he.’They said to him, ‘Who are you?’ Jesus said to them, ‘Why do I speak to you
at all? I have much to say about you and much to condemn; but the one who sent
me is true, and I declare to the world what I have heard from him.’They did not
understand that he was speaking to them about the Father.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 15-16/2022
Martyr Bachir Gemayal: The Grain of Wheat & the Yeast
Elias Bejjani/September 14/2022
Elias Bejjani’s Video & Text Political Commentary: Aoun Prime Minister (1988)
and Aoun President (2016): Both Products of Geagea’s Personal Greedy Agenda and
Lack of Political Vision/September 13 2002
Aoun meets Mikati at Baabda Palace
President Aoun receives credentials of newly accredited ambassadors of Denmark,
Belgium, Finland and Canada
Lebanese President Stresses Progress on Border Demarcation
After heist, Lebanese activists promise more bank raids
Gantz: If Nasrallah attacks Karish, the price will be Lebanon
Berri says setting presidential vote without consensus would be 'adventure'
Report: Israel wants understanding, not full sea border agreement
Parliament begins debating 2022 state budget
Wael Sawan of Lebanon to become CEO of Shell
Lebanese Rejoice after Mayyas Win 'America's Got Talent'
The Cost of Giving up on Line 29/Hanna Saleh//Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 15-16/2022
Israeli Defense Minister: Iran Nuclear Deal 'in ER Room'
Protesters at UN HQ demand Iranian president be denied entry to US
Raisi Says Iran-Russia Cooperation Can Neutralize Limitations Imposed by US
Sanctions
US Sanctions IRGC-Affiliated Individuals, Entities for Malicious Cyber Acts
US Offers $10 Million Reward for Information on 3 Iranians over Hacking Scheme
Iran Signs Memorandum to Join Asian Security Body Founded by Russia, China
Cease-fire Holds between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Sadr Maintains Silence amid Dispute between Opponents, Allies
55 Parties Receive Nomination Forms to Run in Upcoming Israel Elections
US Vows to Re-Evaluate its Position on Palestinian Organizations
Israel Reveals Iranian Missile Production Sites in Syria
Putin, Xi meet for high-stakes talks in challenge to West
Putin says Russia-Iran ties 'developing positively'
Russian troops fleeing Ukraine's counteroffensive — some in 'apparent panic' —
abandoned 'high-value' weaponry, British intelligence says
Ukraine war: Russian military might 'is a big fake' - crack volunteer unit
spearheads liberation of key city
Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line
Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line
New book says Trump feared assassination by Iran in revenge for Soleimani
killing
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on September 15-16/2022
Don’t Just Applaud Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. Time To Send More
Weapons/Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst/1945 website/September 15/2022
Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Terrorists/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone
Institute/September 15/2022
Will King Charles Preserve the Throne?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/September
15/2022
Biden Calculates Iran and the American Elections/Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/September,
15/2022
Ukraine May Become More Successful Than Biden Wants/Hal
Brands/Bloomberg/September, 15/2022
World must send Iran a strong message at UN General Assembly/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/September 15/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 15-16/2022
Martyr Bachir Gemayal: The Grain of Wheat &
the Yeast
Elias Bejjani/September 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/45774/elias-bejjani-martyr-bachir-gemayal-the-grain-of-wheat-the-yeast/
John 12/24: “Most certainly I tell you, unless a
grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains by itself alone. But if
it dies, it bears much fruit.”
On September 14, 1982, on the same day that Lebanon was celebrating the Day of
the Holy Cross, its President-elect, Sheik Bachir Gemayel, passed away into the
hands of the Almighty God after carrying the cross of the country to heaven. He
was not even 34 years old, but what he achieved for the freedom and dignity of
Lebanon places him among the great men who left a stamp of glory on the history
of Lebanon.
Bachir, the hero, dreamt of a sovereign, free and independent Lebanon, and his
dream became the objective of all free-minded Lebanese men and women. And even
as the hands of evil and hatred took him away through a cowardly assassination
plot (14/09/82), his dream lives on in the fiber of our people and their
conscience for as long as the Cedars of Lebanon tower over the country from
their peaks.
Today we remember Bachir in our prayers. We also remember his fallen comrades
who gave so much for our beloved country, and we learn from their sacrifice many
a lesson. On this sad day, our hopes are renewed, our determination is
re-energized, and our commitment to the cause is re-confirmed.
Bachir’s bright star was high in the skies of Lebanon and with it the hopes of
the Lebanese people. But the joy was killed and the hopes dashed when his star
fell from the skies, a martyr to his noble ambitions aiming at building a strong
Lebanon, confirmed in its sovereignty and independence.
Bachir believed that “the one Lebanon is the Lebanon of the 10,452 km2, that the
Lebanese must win back completely so that it belongs to its sons and daughters
in all their communities, creeds, and beliefs”. But even as he departed, what he
believed in remains in the hearts and minds of all the Lebanese people.
Bachir was raised on the cross of Lebanon on the day we remember the Cross. He
was killed in a political act at the intersection of the interests of nations,
individuals, and terrorist groups that feared for their own egotistical
interests should a unified, free and sovereign Lebanon rise from its ashes.
Bachir established the framework and then was unjustly taken from us too soon.
Those same regimes of evil, Syria and Iran, and groups and factions like the
terrorists, Hezbollah, continue today to hold the Lebanese people and their
country hostage to their greed, hatred, and savage schemes. They have mastered
the art of subservience and bowing at the doorstep of the forces of occupation.
They are shepherds of doom who have reneged on every pledge they made and
abandoned their flock.
They are factions whose job is to drive wedges between the free people of the
Land of the Cedars, assassinating their aspirations and hopes in deed, thought,
decision and execution. They assassinate Lebanon every morning and every hour of
their waking day, killing its sovereignty, its free decision-making, its
democracy and culture.
Bachir’s venomous assassination still lingers to this day in all its ugliness,
its corruption and its neglect. It still lingers in its displacement and
emigration, Dhimmitude, apostasy, with economic, social, financial, political,
security and patriotic decline.
It still lingers with the rule of personal over national interests. It still
lingers with the dismemberment of the political parties; the politicization of
the judiciary; the truncation of sovereignty with the imposition of foreign
interference, and the abandonment of human, religious and ethical values.
Bachir’s dream is here to stay and will never disappear, because it is the dream
of a people who want a dignified life, a dream that calls upon unity,
sovereignty and peace.
We are today together to remember the martyrdom of Bachir and his 22 comrades,
lifting our eyes and hearts in the midst of danger and trouble to the redeemer
of suffering humanity, Jesus-Christ, who said “And if I were to rise above the
earth, I shall take with me everyone” (John12/32). We ask Him for light, faith,
strength, and hope to continue our march forward and lift ourselves, our
homeland, and our people to victory, to peace, to righteousness, to freedom and
to all that is good in this world. For Bachir is alive in our beings and in our
minds.
Sheik Bachir, Lebanon’s elected president who was assassinated before assuming
his presidential responsibilities was and still is the patriotic blessed yeast
that was brewed and produced solid foundations of freedom, sovereignty and
independence, as well as perseverance and hope in all Lebanese minds and hearts.
Terrorists and powers of evil could not destroy the dream that Bachir left for
us. Even the gates of hell shall not be able to shake our deeply-rooted faith in
peace, love and democracy. Bachir is the grain of wheat and the yeast. Bachir’s
dream is alive and glowing. As expressed in Galatians 5/9: “A little yeast grows
through the whole lump”.
Bachir the Dream shall never die
Elias Bejjani’s Video & Text Political Commentary: Aoun
Prime Minister (1988) and Aoun President (2016): Both Products of Geagea’s
Personal Greedy Agenda and Lack of Political Vision
September 13 2002
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/111898/elias-bejjanis-video-text-political-commentary-aoun-prime-minister-1988-and-aoun-president-2016-both-products-of-geageas-personal-greedy-agenda-and-lack-of-political-vision/
From the outset, there is no real difference between Dr. Samir Geagea on one
hand, and President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, Jobran Bassil, on the other.
All three leaders hail from one and the same narcissistic mold, entirely devoid
of a national political vision, and their sole interest is lust for power and
nothing else. Which is why their political journey has been one of failure with
its assortments of catastrophes that have tormented the country for as long as
anyone can remember.
Perhaps the single difference between them is that Aoun and his son-in-law have
shed all pretenses by blindly subordinating themselves as servile dhimmis to
Hezbollah, going so far as to declare their pride openly and shamelessly in
doing so. Geagea for his part conceals himself under a cloak of virtuous
chastity, all the while trying to outbid the other two in bootlicking Hezbollah
under the “Riachi” table in his quest for power, as was apparent in his recent
interview with Fadi Abu-Daya on Al-Jadid.
For how can Geagea be against Hezbollah, he who expressed shame in remembering
the South Lebanon Army, and who doesn’t have the return of our heroic refugees
in Israel as his priority? His shills in his corporate party of the Lebanese
Forces, Inc. publicly say that the martyrs of both sides (theirs and
Hezbollah’s) are of the same clay, that the Persian party is made of authentic
Lebanese fabric that they – Geagea’s Lebanese Forces – are trying to bring back
inside the Lebanese house, that Hezbollah has liberated the south, and that
their goal is to resolve the conflict with it by dialogue. More dangerous than
all of this is that they legitimize Hezbollah’s occupation and hegemony and its
Iranian project for Lebanon, by claiming that it is possible to achieve change
and liberation and the recovery of decision-making via constitutional
mechanisms, including elections and such, while Hezbollah has hijacked the
state, the constitution, the institutions, and the authority, and is the
ultimate decision-maker.
Let us tease their selective memory by going back to 1988, when Geagea
obstructed the presidential election to prevent Sleiman Frangiyeh Sr. from
acceding to the presidency, thus allowing Aoun to become the Prime Minister of
the military government. In 2016, Geagea cloned the same obstructionist and
short-sighted scenario by pushing Aoun’s candidacy, backing him, and praising
his glorious achievements. He then co-signed with Aoun the Me’raab Memorandum in
which they divvied up the booty between themselves, again with the goal of
preventing the accession of Sleiman Frangiyeh Jr. to the presidency.
Who knows what Geagea is scheming today to block one more time the election of
Sleiman Frangiyeh Jr. to the presidency? Based on his record of recklessness,
lack of vision and treasonous behavior, he might as well back the election of
Jobran Bassil as president!!!
In sum, and with good conscience, we believe that the leadership of our Maronite
parties, namely Geagea, Frangiyeh, Aoun, Bassil, Gemayel Sr. and Jr. are abject
failures. They have not achieved anything positive to their community, and
because of them and their egotism, Lebanon has fallen to occupation,
disintegration, and alienation. They all have turned a blind eye to the
international resolutions on Lebanon and have indeed become hostile to them, for
the simple motive of appeasing Hezbollah.
One of the most preposterous and childish justifications for Geagea’s backing of
Aoun’s candidacy to the presidency in 2016 was – according to Geagea’s
mouthpieces and close associates – to deal a blow to Aoun’s popular aura and
bring his downfall by exposing him. What a mind-blowing strategy!
But what is the solution?
First, we need to rid ourselves of those intellectually-challenged and
treasonous leaders. We need leaders with a deep sense of duty and moral
responsibility, proponents of sovereignty, who are simply Lebanese patriots.
Leaders who request the international community to place Lebanon under Chapter
VII of the UN Charter and declare it a failed state, and assign its governance
entirely to the hands of the United Nations. Otherwise, Lebanon is condemned to
remain a hopeless case.
Let us remember that Lebanon is a sacred shrine whose protection and defense
fall to the Maronites. Since Maronite leaders have skirted their
responsibilities in this patriotic sacred mission, Lebanon has collapsed and
won’t rise from its limbo without the advent of honorable, pious, patriotic
Maronite guardians who will defend and protect it.
Aoun meets Mikati at Baabda Palace
NNA/September 14/2002
President Michel Aoun received Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati at Baabda
Palace on Thursday. Following the meeting, Mikati told reporters that he would
pay another visit to the President when he returns from New York. "I will not
leave the presidential palace before the government is formed," he said
President Aoun receives credentials of newly accredited
ambassadors of Denmark, Belgium, Finland and Canada
NNA/September 14/2002
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received credentials of four new
ambassadors accredited to Lebanon.
Ambassadors are: Denmark's Ambassador Kristoffer Magnus VIVIKE, Belgium's
Ambassador Koen VERVACKE, Finland's Ambassador Anne MESKANEN, and Canada's
Ambassador Stefanie McCollum.
The official ceremonies to present the credentials took place, in the presence
of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah Bou Habib, the Secretary-General of
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Hani Shmaitili, the Director General
of Protocols at the Presidency of the Republic, Dr. Nabil Shedid, and the
Director of Protocols at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Abeer Ali.
Upon the ambassadors' arrival, successively, to the presidential palace, the
army's music played the anthem of the country represented by each ambassador,
and the flags were raised on the mast of the presidential palace alongside the
Lebanese flag.
Then, the ambassador of each country saluted the flag before being accompanied
by the Republican Guard Brigade.
Ambassadors then entered the salon of October 22 amid two rows of spears, and
from there to the ambassadors’ salon to present his credentials to President
Aoun, and to introduce him to the members of the diplomatic mission.
Upon leaving, the army's music played the Lebanese national anthem.
During the ceremony, the ambassadors conveyed to President Aoun the greetings of
their country's presidents and leaders, and stressed working on everything that
would strengthen bilateral relations between their countries and Lebanon.
For his side, the President conveyed his greetings to the ambassadors to the
leaders and heads of their countries, stressing in return Lebanon's keenness to
strengthen relations with their friendly countries for the benefit of Lebanon,
their countries, their people and the Lebanese.
President Aoun also wished the new ambassadors success in their new duties.
Biographies:
The following is a brief biography of the ambassadors who presented their
credentials today:
Danish Ambassador Kristoffer Magnus VIVIKE
-Holds a BA in Political Science from the University of Copenhagen, and a
Masters in European Science from the Institute of Economic and Political Science
in London.
-Fluctuated in several administrative positions, where he worked between
1999-2001 as an assistant researcher at the Danish Institute of Foreign Affairs.
-Held several positions in Denmark’s foreign ministry, especially in the
security department, African affairs, European Union affairs and his country's
representative in NATO.
-Appointed between 2011-2013, as deputy head of his country's mission in Kabul.
-Appointed between 2016-2021, Director of Consular Affairs and Crisis Management
in his country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Appointed between March
2021-September 2021 as the Special Representative of his country in resolving
the Syrian crisis.
Belgium Ambassador Koen VERVACKE
-Holds a master's degree in contemporary history and art history from the
University of Louvain.
-Attended courses in international mediation and maintaining security, by the
United Nations.
-Holds 30 years of experience in international diplomacy, conflict avoidance,
and mediation, as he held several positions in this context within the framework
of European and Belgian diplomacy.
-Worked as Director and General Manager for Africa, between 2011-2020, in the
European Department of Foreign Affairs.
-Worked on developing and managing strategic partnerships of the European Union
with the countries of the Organization of African Unity, and regional
organizations in the fields of politics, economic development and security.
-Distinguished, as the first special representative of the European Union to the
Organization of African States, for laying the foundations for peace and
security, especially in terms of resolving African conflicts.
-Served as Assistant in the European Unit of Mr. Javier Solana, High
Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in
Partnership with Mediterranean Countries and Africa
Finnish Ambassador Anne Meskanen:
-Holds a master's degree in political science from the University of Helsinki.
-Worked in the press, before she was appointed attache to the secretariat of the
European Relations Department of her country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
- From 1997-2000, she was appointed as a second secretary to the deputy head of
her country's mission in Romania.
-Appointed between 2000-2004 as a consultant to her country's mission to the
United Nations - New York.
-Appointed between 2007-2011, deputy head of her country's mission in Syria,
which covers Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan.
-Appointed between 2015-2017, her country's ambassador to Kabul.
-Between 2018-2020, she was appointed as an ambassador, Senior Adviser in the
Department of Africa and the Middle East, and the Department of Asia and
America, affiliated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of her country.
Canadian Ambassador Stefanie McCollum:
-Had a diverse set of management experience gained during 27 years of work in
the Ministry of National Defense, the Canadian Armed Forces, the Office of the
Minister of State for Public Works and Government Services in Canada, in
addition to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency before joining the
Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2005 .
-Led the management and consular coordination programs in her country's offices
in San Francisco, Cairo, Bucharest and São Paulo.
-Held the position of Director of the Emergency Control and Response Center in
charge of providing assistance to citizens who are exposed to problems abroad,
in addition to monitoring international events and crises that affect Canada's
interest at the international level, and discussing how to deal with them.
-Appointed Director of the Administration Renewal Project, which aims to support
the staff of the Consular Department at the Ministry of World Affairs of Canada.
-In 2018, she was appointed as Canada's ambassador to Qatar. -- Presidency Press
Office
IMF to send mission to Lebanon next week to discuss slow
reform progress
Reuters/September 15/2022
WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that a staff
mission will visit Lebanon next week to discuss ways to “speed up”
implementation of agreed reforms required for an IMF loan program amid
deteriorating living conditions in the country.
“We are looking to support Lebanon as strongly as we can. It’s a difficult
situation,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told a regular news briefing. “There’s been
slow progress in implementing some of the critical actions that we think are
required to move forward with a program.”The IMF and Lebanon in April reached a
staff-level agreement on a $3 billion loan program, but this was contingent on
enactment of a range of economic reforms, including addressing unrealized losses
in Lebanon’s banking system. The slow progress, including what the IMF views as
“key deficiencies” in a proposed bank secrecy law, has raised questions about
whether Lebanon has the political will to meet key conditions for a program.
Rice said the meetings in Beirut starting on Sept. 19 will “prepare the ground
for a full mission” after a new Lebanese government is formed. “Delaying the
implementation of these reforms only increases the costs to Lebanon and Lebanese
people,” Rice added. Rice also said the Fund was “fully committed” to working
closely with authorities in Egypt to help stabilize its economy amid shocks from
the war in Ukraine, but declined to say whether a deal for an IMF loan program
was close at hand. “We’re now working closely with Egyptian authorities with a
view to you know, how we can do more to support our shared goals of economic
stability and sustainable, job rich, medium-term growth for Egypt,” Rice said.
“I don’t have the details on that, the discussions are ongoing with Egypt, but
we’re fully committed.”
Lebanese President Stresses Progress on Border Demarcation
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Wednesday that he hoped his successor
would complete the implementation of the anti-corruption process. He also noted
that negotiations over the demarcation of the maritime border “have gone a long
way,” pointing to technical details that are currently being studied “for the
interest of Lebanon, its rights and sovereignty.”The president’s remarks came
during a meeting with the new executive council of the Informatics and
Technology Syndicate, at the Baabda Palace. “The completion of the demarcation
of the southern maritime borders will enable Lebanon to launch oil and gas
exploration in the specified fields within its exclusive economic zone, which
will give the Lebanese economy a positive impetus,” Aoun stated. He added: “The
communications to complete the demarcation file have gone a long way… There are
technical details that are currently being studied for the interest of Lebanon,
its rights and sovereignty.” US Mediator Amos Hochstein visited Beirut last week
and met with senior Lebanese officials to listen to their viewpoint on some of
the outstanding matters in the ongoing negotiations with Israel.
“I think we’re making good progress,” Hochstein said following his meeting with
Aoun. “I’m very hopeful we can reach an agreement.” The US envoy was expected to
convey the Israeli response to Lebanese conditions for the maritime border
Friday. On a different note, Aoun told his visitors on Wednesday that the
criminal financial audit of the Central Bank’s accounts was underway, adding
that the first phase was set to be concluded by the end of September. He also
expressed hope that his successor would complete the implementation of projects
launched under his tenure, in particular the process of combating corruption.
After heist, Lebanese activists promise more bank raids
AP/September 15, 2022
BEIRUT: A Lebanese activist group on Thursday vowed to organize more bank heists
to help people retrieve their locked savings as the country’s years-long
economic crisis continues to worsen. Activists from Depositors’ Outcry group
accompanied Sali Hafez into a Beirut bank branch on Wednesday, and she was able
to retrieve some $13,000 in her savings to fund her sister’s cancer treatment.
Hafez carried a toy gun when she walked into BLOM Bank on Wednesday, while the
activists who accompanied her poured about gasoline, threatening to set the bank
on fire if she did not get her money out.
The group told AP that they had also coordinated with a man who tried to take
some of his money from a bank in the mountainous town of Aley. Local media said
he carried an unloaded shotgun. Lebanon’s cash-strapped banks have imposed
strict limits on withdrawals of foreign currency since 2019, tying up the
savings of millions of people. About three-quarters of the population has
slipped into poverty as the tiny Middle East country’s economy continues to
spiral. Alaa Khorchid, the head of Depositors’ Outcry, said there is now no
other choice for Lebanese bank depositors but to “take matters into their own
hands.” He spoke at a press conference in Beirut. “BLOM Bank issues a statement
saying that this is a pre-orchestrated operation. Yes it is, what were you
thinking?” Khorchid told reporters, referring to the bank’s statement condemning
Hafez and the activists.
“And we’re organizing more than this, and you have no choice. People’s rights
are sacred,” he added, addressing banks in general. “The real beginning of the
revolution started yesterday, when Sali Hafez entered the bank, and there is no
turning back,” Ibrahim Abdullah, a member of the Depositors’ Outcry group said
at the press conference. “This revolution is against all the banks.” Several
groups advocating and protesting for Lebanese depositors have emerged since
2019, with some — like the one named the Depositors’ Union — opting to file
lawsuits against banks to help depositors retrieve their money.
Wednesday’s heist occurred weeks after a food delivery driver broke into another
bank branch in Beirut and held 10 people hostage for seven hours, demanding tens
of thousands of dollars in his trapped savings. Many Lebanese hailed him as a
hero. The standoff and public sympathy for those taking matters into their own
hands to get their savings has exposed the depths of people’s despair in
Lebanon’s economic crisis, which has pulled over three-quarters of the country’s
population into poverty, unable to cope with skyrocketing food, electricity, and
gasoline prices. Meanwhile, Lebanese officials struggle to implement structural
reforms for an economic recovery plan approved by the International Monetary
Fund to unlock billions of dollars in loans and aid to make the country viable
again.
Gantz: If Nasrallah attacks Karish, the price will be
Lebanon
Naharnet/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned Thursday that “if (Hezbollah chief
Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah wants to try and harm the Karish rig, he’s welcome to
do so, but the price will be Lebanon.”“Israel is ready to reach a deal that will
assist both countries economically and energy-wise. I believe there will be two
gas rigs in the sea, one on the Israeli side and one on the Lebanese side,” he
said. “We will protect our gas rig regardless,” Gantz
added. Speaking earlier at the same conference,
Israelui National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata said the maritime talks were “an
excuse” for Nasrallah to ramp up threats. “Israel wants a stable Lebanon. We
want to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. That is why we are trying to
advance the negotiations on the maritime border. This is beneficial for security
stability and the Lebanese economy,” Hulata said. “We
hope that the Lebanese leadership will also work to reach an agreement and will
not allow Hezbollah to increase instability. We are not deterred by Nasrallah’s
threats. The Karish rig will start producing as soon as it is ready,” he added.
Berri says setting presidential vote without consensus
would be 'adventure'
Naharne/Thursday, 15 September, 2022t
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday noted that calling for a presidential
vote session without at least “some consensus” would be an “adventure.”“This is
my jurisdiction and when I assess that there is some sort of consensus, I will
call for a session,” Berri said when asked by MP Paula Yacoubian about setting a
date for a session to elect a new president. “It would be an adventure to enter
parliament without the presence of consensus but rather a rift, that’s why
patience is needed on this issue, and I’m seeking some consensus, not
unanimity,” Berri added.
Report: Israel wants understanding, not full sea border
agreement
Naharnet/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
All parties, including Hezbollah, are awaiting the next two weeks to decide on
the next steps, and Lebanese sides concerned with the sea border negotiations
have received signals that Israel wants an “understanding” and not a “full
agreement” over demarcation, a media report said on Thursday. “The American side
is showing clear desire to finalize the agreement before October, and it has
advised the Israeli side not to postpone the matter until after the Israeli
elections,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported. “Yair
Lapid’s government, which fears for its political situation in the next
elections, wants to reach an understanding that would allow it to begin
extraction operations without giving the impression that it has bowed to
Hezbollah’s pressures,” the daily added. “Lapid’s
government wants to say that it can agree on a ‘blue line’ separating between
the two sides without being obliged to steps that give the impression that it
has bowed to the resistance. It is also concerned with reaching a swift
agreement, because the agenda of the extraction companies are confined to a
timeframe that does not exceed the first week of October,” al-Akhbar said.
It added that Israel is planning to grant Lebanon “an understanding
considering Line 23 and the Qana field as fully belonging to Lebanon, which
would imply that Lebanon has acknowledged that Karish is not within the disputed
area.”“Such an understanding would allow international firms to come explore in
Lebanon, while the enemy gains the ability to begin extraction operations in
Karish, therefore defusing Hezbollah's threats on the one side, and allowing
Lapid’s government to say that it has not agreed to a full border demarcation
nor to halting production in line with Hezbollah’s demands,” al-Akhbar added.
Parliament begins debating 2022 state budget
Naharnet/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Parliament on Thursday began discussing the draft 2022 state budget, a day after
lack of quorum forced the postponement of a scheduled first session. Outside the
legislature, sit-ins by retired servicemen, bank depositors and several
associations and unions got underway in protest at the proposed state budget.
Speaking at the session, the head of the finance parliamentary committee, MP
Ibrahim Kanaan, said the proposed budget lacks a “an economic and social
vision.”“The scenarios prepared by the Finance Ministry for exchange rates
ranging between LBP 12,000, 14,000 and 16,000 will not secure the needed
revenues, which the strips the budget of balance, because the revenues are not
sufficient for covering salaries, social aid and public debt,” Kanaan added.
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab for his part decried “the procrastination in
dealing with the social-economic-financial-security-health-educational crisis,”
lamenting that “this state budget is based on borrowing.”MP Mohammed Raad
meanwhile noted that “the draft budget reflects the financial situation in which
the country is floundering.” “The government and its premier should not brag
about the draft budget, but we should not hold exclusively hold them responsible
for the current situation in the country,” Raad added.
Wael Sawan of Lebanon to become CEO of Shell
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Shell on Thursday announced the exit of chief executive Ben van Beurden as the
British oil and gas giant looks to reinvent itself under group renewables boss
Wael Sawan. Dutchman van Beurden, 64, will step down
at the end of 2022 after nine years in charge of the energy major and nearly
four decades as a Shell employee. Van Beurden has presided over rollercoaster
oil prices fuelled by the Covid pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine, as
well as overseeing a major corporate overhaul that saw it ditch "Royal Dutch"
from its name. The outgoing CEO "can look back with great pride on an
extraordinary 39-year Shell career," chairman Andrew Mackenzie said in a
statement. He said van Beurden had been "in the vanguard for the transition of
Shell to a net zero emissions energy business by 2050," adding that he "leaves a
financially strong and profitable company."Oil and gas prices have rocketed this
year, leaving Shell "with a robust balance sheet, very strong cash generation
capability and a compelling set of options for growth," Mackenzie added. Shell
has faced strong criticism over its net-zero plans from the environmental lobby,
which accuses it of "greenwashing," or marketing a company as overly
climate-friendly. Energy companies and businesses generally are seeking to slash
carbon emissions in line with government targets on tackling climate change.
Strategy 'tweaks'
Shell hopes Beirut-born Sawan, 48, will boost the transition plans."For a group
whose renewable strategy has been somewhat vague, though grand sounding, this is
a clear marker that Shell intends to change this," said Hargreaves Lansdown
analyst Sophie Lund-Yates. "Change won't happen
overnight, but it's reasonable to think that at least tweaks to the existing
renewable strategy could be on the cards." Mackenzie
called Sawan "an exceptional leader, with all the qualities needed to drive
Shell safely and profitably through its next phase of transition and growth."The
incoming boss had a "track record of commercial, operational and
transformational success" and a deep understanding of Shell and the broader
energy sector, the chairman added. A dual Lebanese-Canadian national, Sawan has
worked at Shell for 25 years in various roles in Europe, Africa, Asia and the
Americas. He is currently director of integrated gas,
renewables and energy solutions. "I'm looking forward to... grasp the
opportunities presented by the energy transition," Sawan said in a statement.
- Oil price boom -
Van Beurden's tenure included oil prices collapsing into negative territory in
2020, as Covid lockdowns ravaged demand. Shell dived
into a net loss of $21.7 billion in 2020 as factories shut and planes were
grounded. That resulted in the group shedding thousands of jobs, mirroring the
likes of British rival BP.
Oil prices have since rebounded sharply after economies reopened from pandemic
lockdowns and following the attack on Ukraine by major crude producer Russia.
Gas prices have also surged owing to the conflict, resulting in Shell's net
profits rocketing more than five-fold to $18 billion in the second quarter of
this year. This even as van Beurden carried out Shell's costly withdrawal from
Russian gas and oil. Soaring profits for Shell and BP come as Britain's faces a
cost-of-living crisis, igniting calls for the pair to be slapped with a far
higher windfall tax than unveiled earlier this year by former finance minister
Rishi Sunak. Last year, Van Beurden ushered in a simplification of Shell's
complex structure, switching headquarters from the Netherlands to the UK and
axing Royal Dutch from the front of its name. Van Beurden, appointed CEO in
January 2014, will continue to work as advisor to the board until mid-2023.
Shell's share price was largely flat in morning deals on London's rising stock
market.
Lebanese Rejoice after Mayyas Win 'America's Got Talent'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Lebanese celebrated the local dance troupe Mayyas on Thursday after it won the
"America's Got Talent" TV contest, stoking joy and pride in a country battered
by years of political and economic turmoil. Many fans, across age groups and
religious lines in the crisis-tested country and its large diaspora, tearfully
cheered the all-women group for what judges and viewers hailed as a hypnotic and
mesmerizing performance. "Congratulations Mayyas, proud, proud, proud," tweeted
Lebanese pop star Elissa, while caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati gushed
that "Lebanese creativity shines" in the performance.
A Twitter user called Wael summed up the mood about the group that beat all the
odds: "They come from a country ravaged by crisis and, despite the difficulties,
they managed to be the best. Lebanese all around the world are proud of you."
The troupe led by choreographer Nadim Cherfan scooped a $1 million prize and the
chance to headline a Las Vegas show for their extravagant performance featuring
belly dancing, feather fans and white orbs of light. "You gave us a glimpse of
hope and showed the world what Lebanese women are capable of," tweeted another
fan, DivaMaj, saluting the group that in 2019 won the Arabs Got Talent contest.
Even the military joined in, declaring on Twitter, somewhat more stiffly, that
"the army command congratulates the Mayyas group, its trainers and members, on
winning America's Got Talent,” AFP reported. The Mayyas' win of the season
finale brought rare respite and a moment of unity to the small country reeling
from almost three years of deep economic hardship and political stalemate. Amid
Lebanon's worst-ever economic crisis, the national currency has lost more than
90 percent of its value on the black market since 2019 while poverty and
unemployment have soared. Beirut remains scarred by the huge portside blast of
haphazardly stored ammonium nitrate in 2020, which killed more than 200 people,
wounded thousands and decimated vast areas of the capital. In a reflection of
the deep popular discontent, several people who have recently held up banks,
using real or toy guns, to demand their frozen savings have been cheered as folk
heroes by bystanders and on social media.
The Cost of Giving up on Line 29
Hanna Saleh//Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022
The Lebanese scene is surreal, sad, and funny:
The government vacuum continues, and no government that responds to the punitive
votes cast on May 15 to a minimal degree will be allowed to take form.
The parties to the regime of sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing have accepted
that electing a new president is “unfeasible” before the October 31 deadline.
More catastrophic are the booby-traps that have littered the course of border
demarcation negotiations with Israel, which has mastered navigating this
minefield. It has taken advantage of the “Nitrate regime” conceding Line 29, the
line that marks our borders and safeguards our rights and wealth!
At the same time, public institutions are crumbling. Some have collapsed, and
others are on the brink. Over the past few months, things have been going
downhill as Lebanon loses two of the services that had distinguished it:
education and healthcare! On the other hand, the team of tyrants has decided
against taking any measures to contain the collapse and allow us to eventually
rehabilitate our institutions and state. However, the statelet’s encroachments
continue to increase, and the fear is that we will see the crystallization of
the requisites for the emergence of cartoon “statelets” that grant legitimacy to
the statelet of Hezbollah! For months, they turned the people’s attention to
wealth anticipated from the gas. The “solutions” they promoted for it were
promises that it would silence the churning of empty stomachs. Aoun wanted to
crown the presidential term of collapse and humiliation by announcing that
Lebanon had become an oil and gas state, so he rushed to demarcate the borders
at any cost. He has always been willing to give up on Lebanon’s sovereignty in
the hope that he would be rewarded by the US through the lifting of the
sanctions that have been imposed on Gebran Bassil.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah hijacked the state and shifted between using the border
demarcation talks to strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in Vienna and
establishing a new “Shebaa Farms” on the sea to maintain its arsenal. And in the
certain knowledge that it can always avoid accountability, the party lavished
promises of the gas wealth ending hunger and taking the Lebanese from one
position to another economically!
In turn, the majority of Lebanese citizens hoped that the negotiations and
excavation efforts would fail so their wealth under the sea could be protected
until political conditions change, thereby allowing us to use this wealth to
reinvigorate the country and benefit its people down the line.
The entire population would lose out if the authoritarians succeed in plundering
Lebanon’s gas wealth. When they realized that the Aounists were dying to begin
excavations in one zone while the sectarian duo of Amal and Hezbollah were dying
to excavate another, with both camps behaving as though they were entitled to
these zones! And because there are no secrets in Lebanon, we discovered that the
team of tyrants has set up around fifty front companies, a process facilitated
by the corrupt laws that govern the management of our wealth, which oblige the
companies doing the excavation and extraction to sell the oil and gas only
through these particular companies. That is, they are seizing our wealth!
For all of these reasons, we saw citizens call for delaying the excavation in
order to prevent the theft of wealth. They made these calls as though they had
been anticipating the World Bank report (published in August) that the “Ponzi
scheme” in Lebanon that began once the war ended and worsened before the October
17 revolution and then got even worse afterward, turning it into the biggest
heist in history. The report left no doubts about whether these fears had been
justified as it demonstrated, with numbers and figures, that “public finance in
post-civil war Lebanon has been an instrument for systematic capture of the
country’s resources, as it served the interests of an entrenched political
economy.”
For months, their media worked to sell the idea that Line 23 should demarcate
our maritime border with Israel despite the lack of a legal argument since it is
not based on our land borders. Their propaganda presented this as an
achievement, creating optimism around Lebanon, having given up on Line 29, which
begins in Ras al-Naqoura and passes through the border point B1- the border
between Lebanon and Palestine that had been reached by the Paulet–Newcombe
Agreement by the French and British mandatory powers.
This demarcation was then adopted by the League of Nations in 1924 and the
armistice agreement between Lebanon and Israel in 1949. That is, Lebanon is
entitled to much of the Karish field, where gas has been found. Those pushing
the narrative that great achievements had been made during the negotiations
overlooked the fact that the famous May 17 Agreement that the President at the
time, Amine Gemayel, had concluded with Israel, would have given Lebanon the
Karish field in its entirety, giving it more that it would have gotten from Line
29!
On September 9, it happened. The officials awaiting Amos Hochstein’s delivery of
Tel Aviv’s written response to the generous Lebanese offer were surprised by
what the “mediator” said during the visit, which was limited to 3 hours. He
relayed a “promise” from Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid that Tel Aviv would
“approve” of the 23rd line and grant Lebanon the Qana oil field, which has not
been explored and about which there is no serious data. However, the “promise”
was accompanied by demands for the adoption of the maritime “Blue Line”
demarcation, which is based on Israel’s moving Israel’s 5-kilometer deep
shifting “line of buoys…” making it obvious that Lapid’s “promise” is akin to
Rabin’s “promise” to give back the Golan Heights!
Tel Aviv made several other demands that derailed all the propositions that had
been made. The intentions of the enemy state to link maritime demarcation, the
line of “blue buoys” that it has clung to in demarcating the land border, as
though the latter had not already been cleared up!
Israel’s proposal, after Lebanese officials conceded 1,800 square kilometers of
our exclusive economic zone, is a deal that allows it to take Lebanese
territory: in exchange for the Qana field, Lebanon must give up on 13 of its
demands, and the land borders would be modified, starting with Ras al-Naqoura,
known as B1, which would erase the Blue Line that had been drawn in 2000! This
is exactly what the researcher and historian Essam Khalifa had warned of,
warning that the enemy would swallow up the dangerous concession and prepare it
as a basis for reconsidering the land borders!
What happened during the maritime border demarcation negotiations with Israel is
the expected outcome of the tyranny’s performance. They have jumbled a national
issue together with their private interests, pushed aside the legal foundations
of the negotiations, and slammed logistic considerations against the wall. They
sidelined the negotiating team, whose members had been an elite group of experts
and replaced it with small, corrupt brokers, disregarded the country’s
sovereignty and their obligations to safeguard it, and they put themselves above
the constitution.
They leaped from one round of negotiations to another in what Deputy Michel
Douaihy called “losing secret bazaars.” Worse still, they had the audacity to
target the negotiating team and push a misleading “positive” narrative that they
well know misconstrues the truth. They were comfortable with the atmosphere
created by the parties to the Ponzi Scheme and the impressions they gave about
the wealth that would rain on them! This bitter experience tells us that this
issue is not a question for the negotiating side. Rather, it concerns all the
Lebanese and proposing a law that forces the executive to adopt Line 29 was
among the first legislative actions that change deputies had taken. The bloc of
change deputies must work to bring this matter back to parliament because
addressing it in a manner that serves the national interest could save Lebanon
and the Lebanese.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 15-16/2022
Israeli Defense Minister: Iran Nuclear Deal 'in ER Room'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers is "in the ER room" and is unlikely
to be renewed soon, if at all, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said on
Thursday after European leaders voiced doubt about Tehran's willingness to
revive the pact. Israel, Iran's arch-foe, supported the US withdrawal from the
accord in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump, who deemed it too limited, and
has been advocating against a re-entry into the pact sought by President Joe
Biden's administration. Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are seen by Israel as an
existential threat, denies seeking atomic bombs. Since Trump's walkout, it has
breached the 2015 deal by ramping up uranium enrichment, a process that can
create bomb fuel down the line. "...The Iran nuclear deal seems like it is in
the ER room," Gantz told a conference on counter-terrorism at Reichman
University. "There's a period maybe after the elections, we'll see how it goes,"
he said in an apparent reference to the US mid-term November elections. His
remarks echoed those of a senior unnamed Israeli official on Sunday who
predicted the deal would not be signed before the November elections, Reuters
reported. Israel is not a party to the Vienna-based talks on reinstating the
2015 deal. But its threats to take military action against Iran if it deems
diplomacy to be at a dead end keep Western capitals attentive. On Saturday,
France, Britain and Germany questioned Iran's commitment to reviving the deal in
return for a lifting of sanctions, comments that were rejected by Tehran and
called "very untimely" by Moscow. In August, after 16 months of tortuous
negotiations, the European Union laid down a final offer to overcome an impasse
over terms for restoring the agreement. Earlier this month, Iran sent its latest
response to the EU's proposed text. Western diplomats said this was a step
backwards, with Iran seeking to link a revival of the deal with the closure of
U.N. nuclear watchdog investigations into unexplained nuclear activity by
Tehran.
Protesters at UN HQ demand Iranian president be denied
entry to US
Arab News/September 15/2022
LONDON: Protesters gathered outside the UN headquarters on Thursday to call for
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to be denied entry to the US and prevented from
speaking at the ongoing General Assembly. Holding placards and banners accusing
Raisi of being a mass murderer and containing the hashtags “#NoVisa4Raisi” and
“#ProsecuteRaisiNow,” the National Council of Resistance of Iran protesters also
called for regime change in the Asian country. They accuse Raisi of the mass
murder of 30,000 political prisoners in 1988, killing 1,500 people during
uprisings in November 2019 and overseeing the execution of nearly 600 people
since coming to power in August last year. One of the banners read: “UNGA and
the USA is no place for a criminal and genocider.” Earlier this week, a
bipartisan group of 52 US lawmakers asked President Joe Biden to deny Raisi
entry to New York, while 500 Iranian-American professionals sent an open letter
to Biden last week urging him to block the visit. “Raisi should stand trial
before international tribunals for crimes against humanity and genocide,” the
letter said. Raisi, who has been under US sanctions since November 2019 for
“complicity in serious human rights violations,” did not attend last year’s
General Assembly because of the COVID-19 pandemic and a pre-recorded video of
his address was played to the meeting instead.
Raisi Says Iran-Russia Cooperation Can Neutralize
Limitations Imposed by US Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a delegation of 80 large
companies will visit Iran next week, Russian state-owned news agency RIA
reported. Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi are at a summit of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan. Earlier, Iran's
foreign minister said that Tehran had signed a memorandum to join the bloc. "By
signing the document for full membership of the SCO, now Iran has entered a new
stage of various economic, commercial, transit and energy cooperation," Hossein
Amirabdollahian wrote on his Instagram page. Raisi said that the cooperation
between Iran and Russia “can significantly neutralize the limitations imposed on
our countries by the US sanctions.”"Iran is determined to boost its ties with
Russia, from economic to aerospace and political fields," Raisi said during his
meeting with Putin, according to Iranian state media.
US Sanctions IRGC-Affiliated Individuals, Entities
for Malicious Cyber Acts
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC) for their role in malicious cyber acts. The Department of the Treasury's
Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned ten individuals and two
entities for their roles in conducting malicious cyber acts, including
ransomware activity. The Treasury said, in a statement, that the individuals and
entities designated are all affiliated with the IRGC. Under Secretary of the
Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said the
ransomware actors and other cybercriminals, regardless of their national origin
or base of operations, have targeted businesses and critical infrastructure
across the board, directly threatening the physical security and economy of the
United States and other nations. "We will continue to take coordination action
with our global partners to combat and deter ransomware threats, including those
associated with the IRGC," said Nelson. This is the second set of sanctions
imposed by the US Treasury within a week after it sanctioned Iran's Ministry of
Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and its Minister of Intelligence, Esmail Khatib,
based on accusations in connection with a cyber-attack in July on Albania.
Meanwhile, the Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, briefed Congress about the
status of the nuclear negotiations. The session was closed to the public, so
committee members could not express their dissatisfaction, but several expressed
their anger over Malley's performance. Since his appointment by US President Joe
Biden, the envoy faced severe criticism from several lawmakers. Recent media
leaks showed increased frustration with Malley, and an Israeli official claimed
the envoy now has a limited role in the negotiations, and the US decision to
return to the agreement is out of his control. The administration was quick to
deny this information, asserting that Malley is the special envoy for Iran and
still very much in charge of the team and the US' efforts. State Department
spokesperson Ned Price asserted there is nothing to those reports. "I can tell
you Rob is deeply engaged day to day on the substance of this. He is leading a
team here at the department," said Price.
The spokesman asserted that Malley is regularly engaging with counterparts at
the White House, the Treasury Department, the Intelligence Community, and
elsewhere regarding the efforts to achieve a joint return to compliance with the
deal and Washington's contingency planning. The administration may have a stern
defense to back its envoy, but it does not mitigate the implications of the
Israeli media leaks. Congressional sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that
Israeli officials are contacting prominent Senate and House of Representatives
members to coordinate their rejection to return to the nuclear agreement. The
Israeli Mossad head, David Barnea, was forced, during his recent visit to
Washington, to cancel his testimony before the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence to evade any crisis with the White House, according to a committee
source. The sources stated that some officials did not support Malley's
appointment when the US first launched its efforts to return to the agreement,
and events proved their position was correct. The Foreign Affairs Committee
presented a draft resolution criticizing the administration on the same day of
Malley's testimony. This proves the growing opposition to the envoy and the
administration's approach to dealing with the negotiations. The proposed draft
calls on the US President to hand over to Congress any documents related to the
negotiations and inform it of any initiative or negotiations regarding Iran's
nuclear program. According to the text of the proposed resolution, "the
President is requested to transmit to the House of Representatives not later
than 14 days after the date of the adoption of this resolution, copies of any
document, memorandum, or other communication in his possession, or any portion
thereof, that refers or relates to any initiative or negotiations regarding
Iran's nuclear program." The draft resolution reflects the dissatisfaction of
bipartisan members of Congress with the lack of any coordination with them in
this file and their fear that Biden will seek to bypass them if an agreement is
reached, as former President Barak Obama did.
US Offers $10 Million Reward for Information on 3
Iranians over Hacking Scheme
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
The State Department is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to
the capture of three Iranians, who it said have worked for tech companies linked
to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. The Iranians have been charged with
trying to extort hundreds of thousands of dollars from organizations in the
United States, Europe, Iran and Israel, including a domestic violence shelter,
by hacking in to their computer systems, US officials said on Wednesday. Other
targets included local US governments, regional utilities in Mississippi and
Indiana, accounting firms and a state lawyers' association, according to charges
filed by the US Justice Department. The defendants, named Mansour Ahmadi, Ahmad
Khatibi and Amir Hossein Nikaein, are citizens of Iran who own or are employed
by private technology companies in the country. The Treasury Department also
imposed sanctions on the three Iranians, as well as several other individuals
and two organizations they said were part of Tehran's "malicious" cyber and
ransomware activity. “The government of Iran has created a safe haven where
cybercriminals acting for personal gain flourish and defendants like these are
able to hack and extort victims, including critical infrastructure providers,”
said Matthew G. Olsen, the assistant attorney general of the Justice
Department’s national security division. The men remain at large in Iran, and
prosecutors said they were highly unlikely to face trial in the United States.
Officials said they hoped that by exposing the group, they might prevent future
attacks.
Iran Signs Memorandum to Join Asian Security Body Founded by Russia, China
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Iran has signed a Memorandum of Obligations to become a permanent member of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Iran's foreign minister said on
Thursday, as Tehran seeks to overcome economic isolation amid US sanctions. "By
signing the document for full membership of the SCO, now Iran has entered a new
stage of various economic, commercial, transit and energy cooperation," Hossein
Amirabdollahian wrote on his Instagram page, according to Reuters. Last year,
the rapidly-expanding central Asian security body, whose founding heavyweights
are China and Russia, approved Iran's application for accession, while Tehran's
hardline rulers called on members to help it form a mechanism to avert sanctions
imposed by the West over its disputed nuclear program. Iranian President Ebrahim
Raisi was in the Silk Road oasis of Samarkand, Uzbekistan on Thursday to attend
a summit of the organization. He was expected to meet Russian President Vladimir
Putin, Iranian media reported. The body, formed in 2001 as a talking shop for
Russia, China and ex-Soviet states in Central Asia, expanded four years ago to
include India and Pakistan, with a view to playing a bigger role as
counterweight to Western influence in the region. Iran will now be able to take
part in meetings, although it is likely to take some time to achieve full
membership, deputy secretary-general of the organization Grigory Logvinov told
Russian state TV, which also reported the signing. Iran's economy has been hit
hard since 2018, when then-US President Donald Trump abandoned Tehran's nuclear
deal with world powers, including Russia and China. Months of indirect talks
between Iran and US President Joe Biden's administration have hit a dead end
over several obstacles to reviving the nuclear pact, under which Tehran agreed
to curbs on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions.
Cease-fire Holds between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
A cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan held Thursday following two days of
fighting that killed 176 soldiers from both sides. Armen Grigoryan, the
secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, said the truce brokered thanks to
international mediation took effect at 8 p.m. (1600 GMT) Wednesday. A previous
cease-fire that Russia brokered Tuesday had quickly failed, The Associated Press
said. Armenia's Defense Ministry said Thursday that the situation on the border
with Azerbaijan has been quiet since the cease-fire started and no violations
were reported. There was no immediate comment from Azerbaijan’s government. The
cease-fire declaration followed two days of heavy fighting that marked the
largest outbreak of hostilities between the two longtime adversaries in nearly
two years. Armenia and Azerbaijan traded blame for the shelling, with Armenian
authorities accusing Baku of unprovoked aggression and Azerbaijani officials
saying their country was responding to Armenian attacks. Armenian Prime Minister
Nikol Pashinyan said Wednesday that 105 of his country’s soldiers had been
killed since fighting erupted early Tuesday, while Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry
said Thursday it lost 71. The ex-Soviet countries have been locked in a
decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is part of Azerbaijan but has
been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a
separatist war there ended in 1994.
During a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed broad swaths of
Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories held by Armenian forces. More than
6,700 people died in the fighting, which ended with a Russia-brokered peace
agreement. Moscow deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as
peacekeepers under the deal. Pashinyan said that his government has asked Russia
for military support amid the latest fighting under a friendship treaty between
the countries, and also requested assistance from the Moscow-dominated
Collective Security Treaty Organization. He added that “we don’t see military
intervention as the only possibility, because there are also political and
diplomatic options.”
Yerevan's plea for help has put the Kremlin in a precarious position as it has
sought to maintain close relations with Armenia, which hosts a Russian military
base, and also develop warm ties with energy-rich Azerbaijan. On Wednesday,
Pashinyan told lawmakers that Armenia is ready to recognize Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity in a future peace treaty, provided that it relinquishes
control of areas in Armenia its forces have seized. “We want to sign a document,
for which many people will criticize and denounce us and call us traitors, and
they may even decide to remove us from office, but we would be grateful if
Armenia gets a lasting peace and security as a result of it,” Pashinyan said.
Some in the opposition saw the statement as a sign of Pashinyan’s readiness to
cave in to Azerbaijani demands and recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over
Nagorno-Karabakh. Thousands of angry protesters quickly descended on the
government’s headquarters, accusing Pashinyan of treason and demanding he step
down. Protests were also held in other Armenian cities.
Sadr Maintains Silence amid Dispute between Opponents, Allies
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Iraq's Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
announced that they were in favor of holding early elections, provided that they
would be supervised by a government with full powers. The head of Al-Sadrist
Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, had called on his allies to follow his step and
withdraw from Parliament. However, the recent decision of the two parties was
seen by the forces of the Shiite Coordination Framework as an implicit support
for their stance regarding holding elections and forming the next government,
through a parliamentary session. Al-Sadr, who did not respond to the
announcement of his former allies, also ignored calls made by parties within the
Coordination Framework about the importance of communicating with him to form a
new government, amid differences that began to emerge within the ranks of the
Framework forces. Well-informed political sources noted that the undeclared
truce imposed by Al-Arbaeen march to the city of Karbala, at the conclusion of
the Ashura rituals, did not push the conflicting parties to resolve their
dispute. The forces of the Coordination Framework, which clashed with Sadr’s
supporters in Baghdad’s Green Zone about two weeks ago, are not about to present
any concession, especially with regards to dissolving Parliament or accepting
that Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi supervise the early elections, along with
President Barham Salih. In an attempt to overcome the obstacle that prevents the
appointment of a prime minister without electing a president, the Coordination
Framework is seeking to persuade the two Kurdish parties (the Kurdistan
Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union) to resolve the node of the president’s
election. While Massoud Barzani, the leader of the KDP, found in Sadr’s call to
keep Barham Salih an opportunity for a rapprochement with the Coordination
Framework, the latter, which is already divided over the stance towards Sadr, is
now witnessing internal divisions over the term of Salih and Kadhimi. This
situation is further complicating efforts to reach a solution, amid fears of a
resurgence of street clashes.
55 Parties Receive Nomination Forms to Run in Upcoming Israel Elections
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Israel heads to the polls for the fifth time in under four years and is
scheduled to hold its 25th Knesset (Israel's parliament) elections on Nov.1. The
process to submit candidate lists to the Central Election Committee started on
Wednesday morning, as 55 parties have received their nomination forms so far.
Registration for parties seeking to run in the upcoming elections will end on
Thursday at 10 pm. Not all of the parties who requested the forms shall run in
the upcoming elections. In the last elections, 39 lists competed, but only 13
lists passed the electoral threshold (3.25% of the vote). Former MK Eli Avidar’s
Israel Free and Democratic party was the first to submit its list. Avidar, who
is known to be of Egyptian origin and speaks Arabic fluently, was until recently
a member of Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party before
rebelling against his former faction and the outgoing coalition several times
and ultimately forming his own faction. He sought to pass a law to prevent
indicted politicians from becoming prime minister and accused Bennet of
withholding the law citing fears from Netanyahu and his camp, and said that
failure to enact this law would overthrow the government and return Netanyahu to
power. Hadar Muchtar, who chairs the Fiery Youth party, was the second to submit
her list. The party is running on a platform of combating the surging cost of
living and corruption. It also advocates greater public involvement in the
political process by holding referendums on a number of issues. Defense Minister
Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party applied next, followed by Lieberman’s party,
Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right religious Zionism party, and
former Israeli Ministry of Finance accountant general Yaron Zelekha’s New
Economic Party. Most politicians postpone submitting their lists until the last
moments, especially parties with disagreements, such as Benjamin Netanyahu’s
Likud Party and the Joint List coalition of Arab factions and others. The three
Israeli factions currently within the Joint List agreed to run together again on
Wednesday.
US Vows to Re-Evaluate its Position on Palestinian
Organizations
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
The US administration has agreed to re-examine its position in rejecting Tel
Aviv's decision to ban the activities of six Palestinian organizations. A
high-ranking Israeli delegation arrived in the US, seeking Washington's support
for Tel Aviv's designation of the Palestinian civil society groups as terrorist
organizations.
Political sources revealed that the Israeli government has been angered by the
statements of US officials expressing concern over Tel Aviv's decision to close
the offices of six Palestinian NGOs in the West Bank. Consequently, Tel Aviv
sent a high-ranking delegation to Washington, including military, Shin Bet, and
Public Prosecution officials, to meet with US officials. The sources said the
delegation provided new information about the activities of these associations
and clarified their alleged role in supporting terrorism. The delegation also
presented a list of 250 other NGOs in the West Bank that Tel Aviv has no problem
with, even though most of them are very critical of Israel. The delegation
requested that the US administration change its position and support Israel in
its decision to ban the activities of these associations. According to the
Israelis, the US did not respond to their request, but it is currently
evaluating the additional information. Israeli forces have raided the ADDAMEER
Prisoner Support and Human Rights Association, Defense for Children
International – Palestine, al-Haq, the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC),
and the Union of Palestinian Women Committees, as well as Bisan Center for
Research and Development. They confiscated computers, documents and files,
arrested several activists, and prepared a report claiming they were all
operating under the leadership of the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine. The report was addressed to the US administration and the European
Union, requesting they stop funding these associations. Following this, European
countries examined the Israeli information, concluded there was insufficient
evidence to corroborate these accusations, and decided to continue supporting
them.The US expressed its concern and said that it was in contact with the
Israeli government to obtain more information about these organizations.
Israel Reveals Iranian Missile Production Sites in
Syria
FDD/September 15/2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz displayed a map on Sept. 12 that shows the
Syrian location of 10 “production facilities for mid- and long-range, precise
missiles and weapons” that Iran has “provided to Hezbollah and Iranian proxies.”
He said Tehran is also “working to build missile and weapon industries in
Lebanon and Yemen” as part of its campaign to destabilize the region. If the
United States lifts sanctions on Iran as part of a nuclear deal, Gantz warned,
this would “double or even triple their terror budget.”
Expert Analysis
“Tehran has taken advantage of economic and political instability in Syria,
Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza to proliferate advanced weapons to its proxies and
unify the so-called Axis of Resistance as an effective tool to attack Israel.”
– Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
“Syria’s Assad regime relies on Tehran no less than Moscow for its survival.
Tehran does not flinch at the atrocities Assad has committed. In return, Assad
has given the Iranians free rein to turn his country into a conduit for arming
Hezbollah and a launchpad for aggression against Israel.”
– David Adesnik, FDD Senior Fellow and Director of Research
Syria’s Chemical Weapons and Ballistic Missile Infrastructure
Gantz said the 10 sites on his map are part of a network that belongs to the
Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC), which the U.S. Treasury
Department describes as a “Syrian government agency responsible for developing
and producing non-conventional weapons and ballistic missiles.” The Bush, Obama,
and Trump administrations have all sanctioned the SSRC and/or its affiliates for
supporting Syria’s chemical weapons program and related activities.
Iran’s ‘Precision Project’ for Targeting Israel
Hezbollah has assembled an arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles in
Lebanon, yet its inventory of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) numbers only in
the hundreds. These include the Iranian Fateh-110 road-mobile ballistic missile
and its Syrian cousin, the M-600.
PGMs, which can correct their course mid-flight, pose a grave threat to Israel,
a small country with little redundancy of critical infrastructure. Sufficient
PGMs could rapidly disable Israel’s energy and water systems as well as its air
and seaports. Accordingly, Iran has prioritized efforts to equip Hezbollah with
PGMs.
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria
Regarding Israel, Hezbollah explained in its original manifesto, “Our struggle
will only end when this entity is obliterated.” Thus, when Iran accelerated its
“precision project” during the Syrian civil war, Israel adopted a “policy to
prevent the transfer of game-changing weapons to Hezbollah in Syrian territory,”
said then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018. With increasing
frequency, Israel has targeted shipments of Iranian weapons as they traverse
Syrian territory, along with facilities that support Tehran’s efforts. In 2019,
then-Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said, “We struck thousands of
targets,” adding that the Israeli Air Force dropped 2,000 bombs in Syria in 2018
alone.
Putin, Xi meet for high-stakes talks in challenge to
West
Agence France Presse/September 15, 2022
Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping gather with other Asian leaders
in the ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand from Thursday for a regional summit
touted as a challenge to Western global influence.
Xi and Putin will be joined by the leaders of India, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and
several other countries for the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) in the Uzbek city on Thursday and Friday. The main summit day will be
Friday, but it is a meeting of the Russian and Chinese leaders on Thursday that
will be the most closely watched. Both had arrived in the city ahead of the
talks, with Putin emerging from his plane under sunny skies to be greeted by an
honor guard on the tarmac before being whisked away in a convoy of black
vehicles. For Putin, the summit is a chance to show that Russia cannot be
isolated internationally, at a time when Moscow's forces are facing major
battlefield setbacks in Ukraine.For Xi -- on his first trip abroad since the
early days of the coronavirus pandemic -- it is an opportunity to shore up his
credentials as a global statesman ahead of a pivotal congress of the ruling
Communist Party in October. And for both leaders, the summit will be a chance to
thumb their noses at the West, especially the United States, which has led the
charge in imposing sanctions on Russia over Ukraine and angered Beijing with
recent shows of support for Taiwan.
"The SCO offers a real alternative to Western-centric organizations," Kremlin
foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow this week. "All
members of the SCO stand for a just world order," he said, describing the summit
as taking place "against the background of large-scale geopolitical changes".
- Tight security, empty streets -
Entry to Samarkand, a city of grand tiled mosques that was one of the hubs of
Silk Road trade routes between China and Europe, was restricted in the days
ahead of the summit, with its airport shut to commercial flights. The streets
and its famed markets stood largely empty as AFP journalists visited on
Wednesday, and schools were to be closed for the two days of the summit.
Security was tight across the city, with a huge police presence on the
streets and armored vehicles parked downtown.
Residents told AFP of their pride in hosting the summit, pointing to Samarkand's
long history as an international crossroads. "We are
proud that so many leaders of various countries are gathering in our city.
Samarkand from ancient times was a legendary city," said 26-year-old Shakhboz
Kombarov. The SCO -- made up of China, Russia, India, Pakistan and the ex-Soviet
Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan --
was set up in 2001 as a political, economic and security organization to rival
Western institutions. It is not a formal military alliance like NATO or a deeply
integrated bloc like the European Union, but its members work together to tackle
joint security issues, cooperate militarily and promote trade. The summit's main
joint session will be on Friday but much of the focus will be on bilateral
talks. As well as Xi, Putin will meet Thursday with Iranian President Ebrahim
Raisi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, then on Friday with Indian
premier Narendra Modi and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Iran is an SCO
observer state and Erdogan has been a key broker in deals between Russia and
Ukraine on issues like grain shipments.
- 'No-limits' friendship -
It was not clear who Xi might meet separately, though talks with Modi would be
their first since 2019, after relations between China and India turned frosty
over deadly fighting in 2020 on their disputed Himalayan border. Formerly Cold
War allies with a tempestuous relationship, China and Russia have drawn closer
in recent years as part of what they call a "no-limits" relationship acting as a
counterweight to the global dominance of the United States.
Xi and Putin last met in Beijing in early February for the Winter Olympic
Games, days before Putin launched the military offensive in Ukraine. Beijing has
not explicitly endorsed Moscow's military action, but has steadily built
economic and strategic ties with Russia over the six months of the conflict,
with Xi assuring China's support of Russian "sovereignty and security."
Russia has in turn backed China over Taiwan, calling U.S. House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island this summer a "clear provocation."
Putin says Russia-Iran ties 'developing positively'
Agence France Presse/September 15, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed growing ties with Tehran as he met
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on the sidelines of a regional summit on
Thursday. "On the bilateral level, cooperation is developing positively," Putin
said, as Moscow looks to use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan
to show it is not isolated internationally despite the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian troops fleeing Ukraine's counteroffensive — some
in 'apparent panic' — abandoned 'high-value' weaponry, British intelligence says
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/September 15, 2022
Britain's defense ministry said Russian troops left behind equipment with
"essential" capabilities. It shared in an intelligence update that some Russians
fled Ukraine's advances "in apparent panic." Russian troops who fled Ukraine's
lightning counteroffensive left behind "high-value" weaponry and equipment, the
UK said on Thursday. Britain's defense ministry said in a new intelligence
update that Ukrainian forces have continued to "consolidate" control over
territory in the country's northeastern Kharkiv region. There, the ongoing
fast-paced offensive has sent Russian troops scrambling from their positions,
where they have left behind a mountain of ammunition and weaponry, including
their rifles. "High-value equipment abandoned by retreating Russian forces
included capabilities essential to enable Russia's artillery-centric style of
warfare," Britain's defense ministry shared, adding that at least one "ZOOPARK
counter-battery radar" and an "IV14 artillery command and control vehicle" were
left behind. Ukraine's military said last week that it captured a Zoopark-1М
radar system designed to detect enemy artillery activity for target acquisition
"as a trophy." But Russia left behind far more than just these systems.
"They left a huge amount of vehicles and ammunition," a Ukrainian commander told
The Telegraph this week. "We couldn't transfer or evacuate it all to our
rear."Britain's defense ministry also said in its update that the way that
Russian forces have fled from their positions has varied. Some soldiers
reportedly put on civilian clothes to escape in disguise while others stole
vehicles and bicycles from locals, Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces
said earlier this week. "Some units retreated in relatively good order and under
control, while others fled in apparent panic," Britain's defense ministry said
on Thursday.Since the start of September, Ukraine's counteroffensive has seen
the eastern European country reclaim thousands of square miles of territory
previously occupied by Russia. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy visited the newly liberated city of Izium — in the Kharkiv region —
for a flag-raising ceremony. "Our blue-yellow flag is already flying in the
de-occupied Izium. And it will be so in every Ukrainian city and village. We are
moving in only one direction — forward and towards victory," he said later on
Telegram. Russian state media has framed the retreat of President Vladimir
Putin's troops as a "regrouping" of forces, even as local officials and
propagandists start to raise eyebrows and criticize the war machine. And yet,
the Russian leader still believes he was right to invade Ukraine, Germany's
chancellor said this week. Meanwhile, Pentagon Spokesperson Air Force Brig. Gen.
Pat Ryder told reporters on Tuesday that Ukraine's success so far — and the
speed at which it is advancing — should only come as a surprise to Putin and his
forces. "Certainly, since the beginning of Russia's invasion into Ukraine, we've
seen the Ukrainians demonstrate a remarkable adaptability in their ability to
use their warfighting capabilities to great effect, so it's not surprising to us
that they have pushed as quickly as they have," he said. Ukraine has "shown a
remarkable ability to take advantages of opportunities that present themselves
on the battlefield, and the current counteroffensive in Kharkiv is no exception
to that," Ryder said.
Ukraine war: Russian military might 'is a big fake' -
crack volunteer unit spearheads liberation of key city
Sky News/September 15, 2022.
The Ukrainian soldier stooped over an ammunition box and picked up what looked
like a giant, metal cork. "Russian landmine," he said. He walked to another
discarded crate inside a large warehouse.
"This is a mortar," the serviceman, 39, said, holding up the deadly weapon,
which was the shape of a stretched, grey-coloured balloon. The haul was part of
a stockpile of ammunition found at a sprawling, mud-splattered repair yard,
which Russian soldiers had apparently used as a base on the edge of the
Ukrainian city of Izyum. It had been left behind, along with shabby-looking bits
of body armour, boots and jars of food - signs of a hasty Russian retreat in the
face of a Ukrainian offensive to take the city back. Ukraine war latest updates:
President Zelenskyy accuses Russia of turning occupied areas 'into toilets' The
soldier - who went by the name Granitsya, the call-sign he said he used for the
war - was part of the operation. "They just ran away," he said, describing the
advance, launched last week. "There was small arms fire but not the big combat
that we saw in the first days or months of the invasion." Sky News met the
volunteer soldier as he stood next to an abandoned Russian tank on a street
leading further into Izyum. Asked how he felt before the operation to attack
Russian positions across the Kharkiv region started, he said: "I wasn't scared
because of what they did to our country. They killed our women, our children,
there is no fear. It is only hatred and a desire to tear them apart. "We are a
special unit - Kraken - everyone knows us. We are working to defend our
country."
Abandoned Russian equipment
The Kraken Regiment is a relatively well-known group of military volunteers
within the Ukrainian armed forces. Behind him, members of his unit were climbing
over the top of the discarded tank, making sure it was safe. The vehicle will be
given a wartime makeover, effectively switching sides. Granitsya took Sky News
to the nearby repair yard. Inside one enormous hanger, were two Russian military
trucks. At least one had the tell-tale letter 'Z' daubed in white paint on a
door. Russian troops used the place to repair their military vehicles, the
Ukrainian soldier said.
His side appeared to have been aware. A giant hole in the roof marked the point
where a projectile looked to have struck the site, presumably as part of
Ukraine's offensive. Pock marks caused by shrapnel dented the walls and twisted
pieces of metal littered the floor. On another part of the compound, inside a
dingy, unlit cluster of makeshift rooms, was where the Russians slept and ate,
according to Granitsya. "Russian, Russian, Russian," he said, pointing to a heap
of shabby green body armour and dirty boots. There was also a long box
containing jars of what could have been pickles.
'There is no one to fear them'
Stepping back outside, he exclaimed again: "Russian", picking up parts of a
rusty gun that he said had been fitted to a vehicle. Granitsya had been a
full-time soldier fighting in eastern Ukraine between 2017 and 2020, following
Russia's first invasion in 2014. He had decided to leave the armed forces but
joined the Kraken unit on 24 February after President Vladimir Putin launched
his full-scale war. The soldier was scathing about the quality of the Russian
military. "Their army is not big and powerful," he said. "It is a big fake. They
create this fake [impression of strength] to make other countries afraid. But in
reality there is no one to fear them."
Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would
cross red line
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Thu, September 15, 2022
- Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that if the United States decided
to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, it would cross a "red line" and
become "a party to the conflict".In a briefing, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman
Maria Zakharova added that Russia "reserves the right to defend its territory".
Washington has supplied Ukraine with advanced rockets that can hit targets up to
80 km (50 miles) away, while so far holding back from publicly announcing it
would send rockets with more than double that range. U.S. officials say Ukraine
has promised not to use U.S. rockets to strike Russian territory.
"If Washington decides to supply longer-range missiles to Kyiv, then it will be
crossing a red line, and will become a direct party to the conflict," Zakharova
said. Ukraine has requested and received large quantities of weapons from the
United States and other Western allies to help it resist the Russian armed
forces that were sent into Ukraine in February. Moscow says it sent troops to
prevent Ukraine being used as a platform for Western aggression and to defend
Russian speakers. Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss these arguments as
baseless pretexts for an imperial-style war of aggression.
New book says Trump feared assassination by Iran in
revenge for Soleimani killing
Times of Israel/September 15/2022
A year after ordering hit on senior Iranian general, Trump reportedly told
friends he was worried about Iranian retaliation
During his last days in office, former US president Donald Trump expressed
concerns to friends that Iran would try to assassinate him in revenge for the
killing of Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps, which he’d ordered the previous year, according to a new book.
The Guardian on Wednesday published excerpts from “The Divider,” by journalists
Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, which examines the former president’s turbulent
tenure in the White House.
The book looks closely at the Trump administration’s policy toward Iran. During
his last days in office, former US president Donald Trump expressed concerns to
friends that Iran would try to assassinate him in revenge for the killing of
Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps, which he’d ordered the previous year, according to a new book. The
Guardian on Wednesday published excerpts from “The Divider,” by journalists
Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, which examines the former president’s turbulent
tenure in the White House.
The book looks closely at the Trump administration’s policy toward Iran.Publicly,
the former president seemed to gloat after the successful strike on Soleimani,
calling the slain Iranian general “a bad guy” and saying “We stopped him and we
stopped him quickly and we stopped him cold.
“He was a bloodthirsty terrorist, and he’s no longer a terrorist. He’s dead.” In
private, however, he wasn’t so confident, according to Baker and Glasser’s book.
About a year after the strike, in December 2020, Trump left a cocktail party in
Florida, telling his friends he was afraid of Iranian retaliation.
“At a cocktail party, Trump told several of his Florida friends he was afraid
Iran would try to assassinate him, so he had to go back to Washington where he
would be safer,” the book states. This incident apparently took place shortly
after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened to avenge
Soleimani and hold those behind his killing accountable. “Those who ordered the
murder of General Suleimani, as well as those who carried this out, should be
punished. This revenge will certainly happen at the right time,” Khamenei
tweeted on December 16, 2020.
Returning to Washington, Trump then began shifting his focus toward the
elections and pressuring his vice-president, Mike Pence, to block electoral
college results confirming his defeat to Joe Biden, Baker and Glasser wrote.
Soleimani, 62, was killed on January 3, 2020, in a US airstrike carried out by
an MQ-9 Reaper drone. He was struck while traveling from Baghdad’s international
airport. Confirming his death at the time, the US Department of Defense said
“Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and
service members in Iraq and throughout the region.” The IRGC is a US-designated
terrorist organization.The attack came hours after then-US defense secretary
Mark Esper said that Washington was ready to step up activities to push
Iran-backed forces out of Iraq, including pre-emptive strikes.
The assassination marked a major escalation in a simmering conflict between the
US and Iran. Several days after the general’s death, Iran responded by firing
ballistic missiles at two US bases in Iraq. The Pentagon said dozens of troops
suffered traumatic brain injuries as a result.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on September 15-16/2022
Don’t Just Applaud Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. Time To Send More Weapons
Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst/1945 website/September 15/2022
The Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv and Kherson have erased months of
Moscow’s territorial gains and destroyed or captured large amounts of Russian
military equipment, ammunition, and personnel. These operations demonstrate that
Kyiv has the political will and military capability to seize the initiative and
retake occupied territory when armed with weapons from the United States and its
allies.
To defeat Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, reduce the duration and
humanitarian costs of the war, and advance core Western economic and security
interests, now is not the time to sit back and simply admire the performance of
Ukrainian forces. Washington and its allies should urgently redouble efforts to
provide Ukrainians with the necessary weapons.
On August 29, Ukraine announced a counteroffensive in the country’s southern
Kherson Oblast, aiming to liberate a key city by the same name. After imperiling
Russian frontline positions by striking supply depots and bridges for weeks, a
spokesperson from Ukraine’s southern command said Ukrainian forces had advanced
tens of kilometers in Kherson Oblast and Russian forces had retreated to their
second line of defenses. The Pentagon confirmed that Ukraine has made forward
progress and that some Russian units have fallen back as a result.
Then, on September 6, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast,
benefiting from Russia repositioning some of its forces closer to Kherson in
anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. While the battle is still underway
and details are hazy, Ukrainian forces have smashed through Russian lines and
retaken almost 3,800 square kilometers of territory since September 6, according
to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Ukrainian forces have entered the
strategic city of Izyum, the key logistical hub of Kupyansk, and dozens of other
towns.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces beat a hasty retreat, leaving behind large
quantities of equipment and ammunition, even as Russian state media struggles to
put a positive spin on events.
These developments prove that Kyiv has the political will and military forces
with the tactical and operational acumen to retake occupied Ukrainian territory.
Arguments that Ukraine is too outmatched to go on offense or that Western aid
won’t make a difference are increasingly being undermined by reality on the
ground. In determining the path forward in terms of support for Ukraine, it is
important to recognize that the stakes in Ukraine are incredibly high for
Europeans, Americans, and other democratic allies and partners far from the war
itself. Russia is attempting to use military force to redraw international
borders. A similar “might makes right” impulse helped spark two world wars in
Europe in the last century. If Putin’s gambit succeeds, we should expect more
aggression on the continent from the Kremlin and other autocrats elsewhere.
Beijing, in particular, is watching to see how the U.S. and Europe will respond
in both the short and long term to Putin’s invasion. We should expect the
Chinese Communist Party to draw relevant lessons for prospective aggression
against Taiwan. To deter additional aggression in Europe and shift Beijing’s
cost-benefit analysis in the Taiwan Strait, the United States and like-minded
democracies must continue to provide Kyiv with the means to defeat the Russian
invasion soundly.
Nevertheless, some are questioning whether the United States can afford to
continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs. According to the
Pentagon, the United States has committed more than $14.5 billion in military
aid to Ukraine since February 2022.
That is certainly not a small amount of money, but it’s important to put it in
perspective. The Biden administration requested $773 billion for the Department
of Defense for fiscal year 2023. In comparison, the $14.5 billion allotted to
Ukraine since February represents less than 1.9 percent of that amount.
When one considers the benefits for Americans associated with helping Ukraine
defeat Putin’s invasion, that investment looks like a bargain. Cutting future
military support for Kyiv would be penny wise and pound foolish.
For these reasons, instead of simply applauding the Ukrainian counteroffensive,
the United States should continue providing military aid to Ukraine, focusing on
the weapons and capabilities most needed to support Kyiv’s efforts to liberate
and hold Ukrainian territory. This aid should include more High Mobility
Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) as well as the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket
System (GMLRS) rounds they fire. Kyiv has reportedly requested an additional
2,000 of these munitions.
Additionally, providing the Army Tactical Missile System, a longer-range missile
fired from HIMARS, would allow Kyiv to strike key Russian logistics nodes and
other high-value targets within Ukrainian territory far beyond the range of
Ukraine’s current precision-strike capabilities.
Finally, decision-makers should not ignore the over 6,300 relevant Russian- or
Soviet-origin weapon systems currently in the possession of non-NATO countries,
some of which could be transferred to Ukraine. Even just spare parts for those
systems would be invaluable for Ukraine as it strives to maintain its own
Soviet-made (and captured Russian) equipment. Washington and its allies should
also continue working to secure 152mm and 122mm rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet-made
artillery, even as Ukraine transitions to NATO-standard 155mm artillery rounds.
Ukrainians have demonstrated both the will and the ability to take back their
territory. They have the bravery, skill, and determination necessary to defeat
Putin’s invasion. The only question is whether the West will provide Kyiv with
the weapons necessary to finish the job.
*Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and previously served as national
security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations
committees. *Ryan Brobst is a research analyst at FDD. Follow Bradley on Twitter
@Brad_L_Bowman. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
*John Hardie, Deputy Director of FDD’s Russia Program, contributed to this
article.
Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Terrorists
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/September 15/2022
One thing is for sure. Abbas will not tell his audience at the UN that members
of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where they are
carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and Palestinian
journalists as well as Israelis on an almost daily basis.
Abu Jildeh and al-Nabulsi are among several Fatah terrorists killed or
apprehended in recent weeks. These terrorists belong to the Palestinian faction
that is often described by Westerners as a "moderate" group. The commander of
these terrorists is none other than Mahmoud Abbas, who, in addition to his role
as Palestinian Authority president, is also chairman of Fatah.
Abbas's terrorists, carrying various types of guns and explosive devices, are
roaming the streets of the two cities and openly declaring their support for
terrorism.
The terrorists are mostly associated with Fatah's armed group, Aqsa Martyrs
Brigades. Another Fatah-affiliated group that recently emerged on the streets of
Nablus calls itself the Lion's Den.
The Fatah terrorists have carried out several attacks against both Palestinians
and Israelis over the past few months. Many of the terrorists are also known to
cooperate with the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Islamist terror groups.
The Aqsa Martyrs Brigades even boasted of the terrorist attacks in a statement.
The group also vowed to continue the terror attacks.
Abbas and the Fatah leadership continue to glorify the terrorists. Abbas, in
addition, has refused to rein in or disarm the terrorists.
So far as Abbas and other Palestinian leaders are concerned, Palestinian
lawyers, journalists and activists who seek freedom, as well as Jews. should
just lie back and accept the daily terrorist attacks against them. Abbas cries
"terrorism" only if Israel kills or captures a terrorist.
This is the same Abbas who will appear at the UN General Assembly soon to again
play the role of victim and accuse Israel of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing."
Since he came to power in 2005, Abbas has made it a habit to lie to the UN and
other international parties.
Meanwhile, Abbas knows full well that his incitement against Israel has been so
effective, that if he ever did make peace with Israel, his own people would
execute him for being a traitor.
Abbas, of course, will not mention the Fatah terrorists during his upcoming
speech at the UN. He will also not talk about the rampant corruption in his
government and the failure of the Palestinian security forces to carry out their
duty to enforce law and order and prevent terrorism.
The UN member states should prepare themselves for another Abbas list of lies
and libels, assigning blame to everyone but himself for the ongoing bloodshed.
It would be helpful if one of the member states' representatives interrupted
Abbas's litany to inquire about the role of his loyalists in terrorism and how
it is that he continues to praise terrorists while claiming that the
Palestinians supposedly seek peace.
When Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General
Assembly in New York later this month, he will not tell his audience that
members of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where
they are carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and
journalists, as well as Israelis, on an almost daily basis. Pictured: Abbas
delivers a speech at the UN on September 27, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by
Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)
As Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas prepares to address the United
Nations General Assembly in New York later this month, there are increased signs
that his loyalists are engaged in terrorist attacks against Israel.
As he has done in the past, Abbas will undoubtedly again use the UN podium to
affirm his keenness for making peace with Israel and his opposition to terrorism
and violence. Needless to say, he is also expected to exploit the international
platform to spew more incitement, lies and blood libels against Israel and
Jews.One thing is for sure. Abbas will not tell his audience at the UN that
members of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where
they are carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and
Palestinian journalists as well as Israelis on an almost daily basis. These
terrorists, who are loyal to Abbas, are operating in the northern West Bank,
specifically the Palestinian cities of Jenin and Nablus.
Abbas's terrorists, carrying various types of guns and explosive devices, are
roaming the streets of the two cities and openly declaring their support for
terrorism.
The terrorists are mostly associated with Fatah's armed group, Aqsa Martyrs
Brigades. Another Fatah-affiliated group that recently emerged on the streets of
Nablus calls itself the Lion's Den.
The Fatah terrorists have carried out several attacks against both Palestinians
and Israelis over the past few months. Many of the terrorists are also known to
cooperate with the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Islamist terror groups.
The Fatah terrorists recently carried out a number of shooting attacks against
Jewish worshippers visiting Joseph's Tomb in Nablus.
The Aqsa Martyrs Brigades even boasted of the terrorist attacks in a statement.
The group also vowed to continue the terror attacks.
Last month, the Israeli army managed to kill Ibrahim al-Nabulsi, one of the
leaders of the Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Nablus who was wanted for carrying out a
series of shooting attacks.
After the killing, the Fatah leadership held a conference under the name of the
slain terrorist in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinians. This was
a gesture on the part of Abbas and his aides to honor the dead terrorist. Abbas
even phoned the parents of al-Nabulsi and two other Fatah terrorists to offer
his condolences and praise the terrorists as "martyrs."
Last week, Israel police officers arrested a Palestinian terrorist in the city
of Jaffa, near Tel Aviv. The terrorist, who was on his way to carry out an
attack, belonged to the Fatah-affiliated Lion's Den terror group. The police
found a submachine gun and pipe bombs in the possession of the terrorist.
More recently, the Palestinians announced that Hamad Abu Jildeh, a 24-year-old
man from Jenin, died of wounds he sustained during an armed clash with Israeli
soldiers a few days earlier. The Palestinians revealed that Abu Jildeh was one
of the commanders of Abbas's Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. A video that surfaced on
social media platforms featured Abu Jildeh while he was shooting at Israeli
troops in the Jenin Refugee Camp. During his funeral, Fatah members called on
Palestinians to carry out more attacks.
Abu Jildeh and al-Nabulsi are among several Fatah terrorists killed or
apprehended in recent weeks. These terrorists belong to the Palestinian faction
that is often described by Westerners as a "moderate" group. The commander of
these terrorists is none other than Mahmoud Abbas, who, in addition to his role
as Palestinian Authority president, is also chairman of Fatah.
Abbas and senior Fatah leaders have not uttered a word against the involvement
of their loyalists in terrorism.
Abbas and the Fatah leadership continue to glorify the terrorists. Abbas, in
addition, has refused to rein in or disarm the terrorists. Instead, Abbas and
his spokesmen continue, as usual, to blame Israel for the latest flare-up of
violence in the West Bank. They are effectively saying that Israel has no right
to defend itself or thwart terrorist attacks that are planned and carried out by
terrorists, especially those belonging to Fatah.
As far as Abbas and other Palestinian leaders are concerned, Palestinian
lawyers, journalists and activists who seek freedom, as well as Jews. should
just lie back and accept the daily terrorist attacks against them. Abbas cries
"terrorism" only if Israel kills or captures a terrorist.
This is the same Abbas who will appear at the UN General Assembly soon to again
play the role of victim and accuse Israel of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing."
Since he came to power in 2005, Abbas has made it a habit to lie to the UN and
other international parties.
Following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, Abbas's strategy
has been to play the world for fools by propagating the false claim that Israel
is responsible for all the miseries of the Palestinians -- a move more
politically shrewd than blaming one's own atrocious leadership.
Like Arafat, Abbas will continue to talk about the Palestinians' desire for
peace all the while encouraging his Fatah terrorists to continue killing. If
Abbas really wanted to rein in the terrorists, he would at least instruct his
security forces to move in to confiscate illegal weapons and arrest the
terrorists.
Abbas, however, is not going to do that because he himself regards the
terrorists as heroes and martyrs. Moreover, he had no incentive to crack down on
the terrorists; after all, they do not pose a threat to his regime.
Meanwhile, Abbas knows full well that his incitement against Israel has been so
effective, that if he ever did make peace with Israel, his own people would
execute him for being a traitor.
Abbas, of course, will not mention the Fatah terrorists during his upcoming
speech at the UN. He will also not talk about the rampant corruption in his
government and the failure of the Palestinian Authority security forces to carry
out their duty to enforce law and order and prevent terrorism.
The UN member states should prepare themselves for another Abbas list of lies
and libels, assigning blame to everyone but himself for the ongoing bloodshed.
It would be helpful if one of the member states' representatives interrupted
Abbas's litany to inquire about the role of his loyalists in terrorism and how
it is that he continues to praise terrorists while claiming that the
Palestinians supposedly seek peace.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Will King Charles Preserve the Throne?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022
After Queen Elizabeth’s passing, Britain may never be the same again, for
reasons that cannot be attributed exclusively to Buckingham Palace.
Today, a combination of factors threatens the long-standing entity that the
United Kingdom has known. Starting with Brexit and the receding influence of the
Commonwealth that binds the UK to its old colonies, and not ending with the
rising separatist calls, specifically in Scotland.
The monarchy itself is alive and well in Britain. In my opinion, Charles III's
ascension to the throne will maintain the monarchy’s popularity. As a crown
prince, the King was always in the public eye and remained close to the people.
A one-man protest during the King’s coronation and anti-monarchy demonstrations
here and there are not news. Such acts of protest have always been there, but
they have never succeeded in gaining traction and bringing in sweeping popular
or political currents.
Until recently, Britain was the largest empire known to mankind, despite its
small size. It dominated the world, from China to California. A quarter of the
world's population fell under its rule, thanks to its battleship cannons and
fierce sailors. For two centuries, it led the worlds of science and capitalism.
Through its expansion, it brought civilization to the farthest corners of the
world and became a prosperous state using the resources of its colonies. Its
rail network ran for 350,000 kilometers across the world, while the rest of the
world had only 30,000 kilometers combined. The British transported soldiers,
horses, and supplies on their trains and ships and ruled the world in the
nineteenth century, despite having a population of merely 18 million at the
time.
Historically, all empires had a colonial past: The Romans, Persians, Arabs,
Turks, French, Russians, Dutch, Belgians, Portuguese, and Spaniards were all
colonizers, just as the British were. There is a dark side to all empires with
slavery, wars, and borders, coming to the fore, and the British were no
exception. On the bright side, the British Empire brought along their science,
arts, architecture, medicine, new machines, and modern political systems.
Some summarize the history of the British empire to the slave trade and
exploitation, but this is a trait shared by all major empires. The English, just
like the Arabs and Romans, collected outposts and traded in slaves. The Turks
brought along what was known as Janissaries: orphaned children taken as
prisoners of war, kidnapped from Europe, and raised to fight in the Sultan's
Guard and the Imperial Army. The difference is that Britain allows the
discussion and criticism of the sins committed by the empire in its schools and
media, while the Arabs, Persians, and Turks only boast about the bright sides of
their glorious history.
The old era of empires and the conquest of the world by major armies has ended,
making way for cyber armies and multinational corporations. The ugliness of
World Wars I and II convinced the West that colonial conflicts threaten the
existence of states and the world. Britain's victory in both wars did not
prevent its empire’s rapid demise and the rise of the American and Soviet
powers.
Britain's past is crystal clear, but its future is uncertain. It may not be as
jeweled as it was in the Victorian era, nor will it retain all the legacy of the
empire from the reign of Elizabeth II. As it shrinks geographically and loses
major markets, the UK’s global position is threatened with relegation to just
another former major empire, as happened with Spain.
Britain will increasingly turn to markets in our region and Oceania to
compensate for Brexit. As for Charles III, despite having no political functions
per se, his ascension to the throne will help the British government market its
projects to the world, thanks to the King’s long-standing and far-ranging
connections. He has known the royal families of the Middle East for a long time
and enjoys friendly ties with them, and many governments still see London as the
gateway to influence Washington and as the mediator that’s most cognizant of
politics and history.
Biden Calculates Iran and the American Elections
Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2022
We see a new impasse in negotiations about renewing the 2015 agreement that
limits Iran’s nuclear program. Members of Congress are pressuring the Biden
administration not to make any concessions. Many Democrats and Republicans in
Congress want no deal. A group of fifty representatives from the House of
Representatives, including 34 from Biden’s Democratic Party, on September 1 sent
the President a letter laying out 4 objections to a potential new nuclear
agreement with Iran.
First, the representatives complained that the deal would relax limits on
Iranian production capabilities in 2025. They also warned that the deal would
depend on Russia for implementation and Russia cannot be trusted. Third, they
insisted that the International Atomic Energy Agency finish its investigations
of the suspicious Iranian activities at the three nuclear sites before any
reduction in American sanctions against Iran. Finally, the representatives
complained that the deal would relinquish to Iran about 100 billion dollars that
it could use to finance terrorist groups. Israel is lobbying intensively in
Washington, and Defense Minister Gantz is visiting Washington again this month.
It is worth noting that Israel often uses the same four arguments in the
representatives’ September 1 letter.
Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Robert Menendez told the
press that the Biden administration would submit any new Iran agreement for
review to the Congress. There is, of course, an American domestic political
angle here with the approach of the November 8 legislative elections. Probably
the House of Representatives would reject an Iran agreement because already at
least 34 Democratic members oppose it. The Senate with its 100 members becomes
the key battleground. Probably all or almost all of the 50 Republican senators
would vote to block a new deal with Iran. With about 10 Democratic senators’
votes they might get a majority of the 100 members in the chamber to kill the
deal, probably by blocking easing of sanctions. In that case, however, very
likely President Biden would veto the final Congressional resolution in order to
save the deal his team had negotiated. According to the Constitution, two-thirds
of both senators and representatives must vote in favor of overriding the
President’s veto (and therefore block the Iran deal).
In the Senate, therefore, this vote to override would need the votes of 50
Republicans and 17 Democratic senators. This is unlikely. There are at least 11
Democrats who support a new deal already. In addition, Biden, the Democratic
party leader, would remind the Democratic senators about his tough line on the
Iran Revolutionary Guards and the International Atomic Energy Agency
investigation and urges unity among the Democratic Party. Biden excels at this
kind of legislative pressure. For this reason, Republican Senator Lindsey
Graham, a major opponent of a nuclear agreement with Iran, acknowledged that the
Congress probably cannot stop a new deal with Iran.
There is one risk to the Biden administration in this scenario. Far from the
Iran issue, the Democratic Party needs to win more senate seats on November 8 in
order to control the Senate comfortably and pursue the Democratic Party domestic
agenda. The Iran deal itself will not be a big issue for American voters. First,
a public opinion survey from the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations in late
July showed 59 percent of Americans support renewing the Iran agreement. Second,
American voters focus on the economy and social issues. However, senators who
vote to support a new Iran deal in late September or October would risk
provoking lobby groups who oppose the Iran deal to give financial donations to
their opponents in the last weeks of the election campaign. Money sometimes can
change the result of a close election, and the Democratic Party faces at least
five close senate election races. If Iran were to suddenly accept the American
terms in the negotiations, before moving ahead Biden would consult with the
leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Charles Schumer (who in the past opposed
the Iran nuclear agreement) and other Democratic Party figures about the timing
in Congress. On September 5 Lindsey Graham predicted that Biden would take the
safer domestic political choice and wait until after the November 8 election
before concluding a deal with Iran. Israeli officials similarly predict that
Iran won’t make more compromises to Biden and there is no chance of an agreement
before the American election. A bigger question is whether after November 8 it
will still be possible to reach a deal with Iran or whether, as some in Israel
and Washington want, the Biden administration will shift to a stronger military
stance to pressure Iran. It is not a coincidence that the Americans bombed
militias loyal to Iran in Syria August 24 and on September 4 flew some American
B-52 bombers near Iran as clear warnings.
*Robert Ford is a former US ambassador to Syria and Algeria and a senior fellow
at the Middle East Institute for Near East Policy in Washington
Ukraine May Become More Successful Than Biden Wants
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/September, 15/2022
The gains of Ukraine’s bold offensive are real, spectacular, and the product of
a remarkable partnership with Washington. Success, however, can test any
relationship, and Ukraine’s battlefield victories could, ironically, stoke new
tensions with the US.
Right now, officials in both countries are reveling in a major military
breakthrough. The New York Times reports that the Pentagon was deeply involved
in planning the offensives in the east and southeast of Ukraine, war-gaming them
extensively and steering President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government away from a
riskier thrust toward Mariupol.
This achievement represents the culmination, so far, of a relationship that has
advanced rapidly since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s all-out assault in
February.
Money, information and arms provided by the US and other Western countries has
bolstered Ukrainian resistance and helped Kyiv inflict sky-high casualties —
perhaps tens of thousands killed in action — on Moscow’s forces. Ukraine has
proven that it can use that aid to liberate large swaths of its territory, which
should buy it the continued backing of the Western coalition through the cold
winter to come.
Lest anyone think Washington is aiding Ukraine solely out of kindness — or that
it is squandering Americans’ tax dollars — this has all been a tremendously good
bargain for Uncle Sam. Ukraine is the best tool the US has for battering and
bogging down the Russian military so it cannot pursue aggression elsewhere and,
perhaps, for dealing Putin a defeat from which he will not soon recover.
“We’re paying another country to fight a horrible war on its own soil so that we
won’t have to fight a worse one on the soil of a NATO ally,” Frederick Kagan of
the American Enterprise Institute told me. “It’s rather cold-blooded put that
way, don’t you think?”
The US and Ukraine have a classic patron-client relationship. These are always
fraught, because the parties have different levels of power and different
national interests, even when they share a common enemy. The closer Ukraine gets
to winning this war, the more those differences may come into view.
Zelenskiy’s government has been clear about its aims: liberation of all
Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and other areas seized by Moscow in 2014,
plus reparations and prosecution of Russian war criminals. With every mile of
territory Ukraine reclaims, its confidence that it can secure these aims grows.
There is great moral justice in these demands, and in an ideal world, Washington
would surely support them. But while President Joe Biden’s administration
prudently declined to quarrel over Ukraine’s war aims when that country’s
survival was very much in doubt, it may yet hesitate to make Kyiv’s goals its
own.
Biden’s team might worry that if Ukraine pushes too far and overextends itself,
it could end back up in costly stalemate that will consume US resources even as
the danger of conflict with China grows. Or perhaps Putin would escalate
radically, even using tactical nuclear weapons to avoid the meltdown of his army
and the loss of Crimea, which he claims (illegally) as Russian soil.
Wars against seemingly beaten enemies can still get ugly quickly, as America
learned when it sought to liberate the entire Korean Peninsula in late 1950 but
found itself in a larger, more dangerous fight with China instead. No doubt the
Biden administration is mulling carefully which Ukrainian war aims are desirable
and which are truly indispensable.
A Ukraine that is politically independent, economically viable and militarily
defensible is certainly in the latter category. So is an outcome that leaves
Putin so bloodied and bereft of new gains that no reasonable observer can think
that aggression has paid.
All this involves pushing Russia back to the lines of Feb. 24, 2022, if not
further. But it may not, in Biden’s view, require reclaiming Crimea or putting
Putin and his henchmen on trial.
A debate over ending the war isn’t imminent — it will take further offensives to
evict Russia from the land it has occupied since February. Zelenskiy may
eventually prove willing to trade away certain demands to secure others. Or
maybe there will be a Russian military collapse that Putin meekly accepts.
But barring that best-of-all-worlds outcome, the coming months may see some
difficult conversations between the US and Ukraine over how much Kyiv should
seek in a peace deal with Moscow — and some quiet consideration in Washington of
whether to try to restrain Zelenskiy if he pushes for more than Biden thinks
wise.
It wouldn’t be the first time a US proxy ended up disappointed. President Dwight
Eisenhower ultimately compelled South Korea’s Syngman Rhee to accept a
compromise peace and a divided peninsula. In 1990, Washington effectively forced
the Nicaraguan contras to take a peace deal that saw them disarmed even as their
Sandinista enemies retained control of the Nicaraguan government and military.
Today, Ukraine is fighting the free world’s war against Moscow. That doesn’t
necessarily mean it will get all that it deserves.
*Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Henry A.
Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University's School of
Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic
and Budgetary Assessments. His latest book is "American Grand Strategy in the
Age of Trump."
World must send Iran a strong message at UN General
Assembly
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/September 15/2022
Iran’s ultraconservative President Ebrahim Raisi is due to speak at the 77th
session of the UN General Assembly next week in spite of the US sanctions
against him, which were imposed in 2019.
The Iranian regime will most likely attempt to use the platform to advance false
narratives, such as blaming other countries for conflicts in the region,
depicting itself as the frontrunner in the fight against terrorism in the
region, demonizing its rivals, and claiming that its nuclear program is solely
designed for peaceful purposes. Raisi will also likely demand that all sanctions
against the Islamic Republic be lifted. There is a lot of controversy concerning
the Iranian president’s attendance in New York, which will be his first visit to
the UN as president. The Iranian hard-liner was reportedly involved in the 1988
massacre of political prisoners and there have been calls by human rights
organizations such as Amnesty International to investigate alleged crimes
committed while he was a member of the so-called death committee. That is among
the reasons why eight US senators, including Sens. Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Joni
Ernst and Ted Cruz, have urged US President Joe Biden to deny Raisi entry to the
country. “Raisi’s involvement in mass murder and the Iranian regime’s campaign
to assassinate US officials on American soil make allowing Raisi and his
henchmen to enter our country an inexcusable threat to national security,” a
letter signed by the senators stated.
The tone that the US sets at the UNGA is critical to the Iranian leaders’
political calculations. Although the US has taken a softer position toward the
Tehran government due to the prospects of a new nuclear deal, the White House
ought to focus on its destabilizing behavior in the region and the need for the
Islamic Republic to alter its regional policies. The US should send a message to
the Iranian regime that a nuclear deal does not give it the green light to act
as it wishes in the region, particularly in Arab nations such as Yemen, Iraq,
Lebanon and Syria. The international community can use the UNGA platform to draw
attention to the devastating effects Tehran’s continuing support for militia and
terror groups has on the Middle East. It can be argued that the theocratic
establishment is one of the core reasons for the ongoing conflict in Yemen, due
to the weapons assistance it provides to the Houthis. Security forces in Yemen
last month busted a cell affiliated with the Houthi militia group for smuggling
weapons from Iran. This is yet another violation of international law and UN
Security Council resolutions by the Iranian regime when it comes to the Yemen
conflict.
The US ought to focus on the regime’s destabilizing behavior in the region and
the need for it to alter its policies.
Yemeni Information Minister Moammar Al-Iryani stated that confessions made by
members of the cell “confirm that Tehran continues to supply the (Houthi)
militia with weapons.” They also confirmed the Iranian regime’s role in
“undermining the truce’s efforts and (show) that Iran uses the Houthi militia to
kill Yemenis, destabilize Yemen and spread chaos and terrorism in the region.”
The Iranian leaders have also been trying to pressure world powers into putting
an end to the current investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency
regarding Tehran’s clandestine nuclear activities, which include possible
military dimensions. At the UNGA, the US and the international community should
make it clear that such a demand will not be accepted. Instead, the Iranian
regime should be urged to cooperate with the IAEA’s probe.
To be more specific, the Iranian leaders must come clean about their nuclear
activities and respond to the alarming questions raised by the UN’s nuclear
watchdog. Rafael Grossi, the director general of the IAEA, last month said: “So
far, Iran has not given us the technically credible explanations we need to
explain the origin of many traces of uranium, the presence of equipment at
places. This idea that politically we are going to stop doing our job is
unacceptable for us.” Grossi also emphasized to the IAEA board that, without the
Iranian government’s cooperation, the “agency cannot confirm the correctness and
completeness of Iran’s declarations under its Comprehensive Safeguards
Agreement.”In other words, the US should not just concentrate on the Iranian
regime’s nuclear program at the UNGA — it also ought to address Tehran’s
destabilizing behavior in the region and its support for terror and militia
groups.
The international community, particularly the US and European powers, has the
opportunity to send a strong message to the Iranian regime at the UNGA that
Tehran’s nuclear threat and clandestine activities, along with its destabilizing
regional behavior and support for terrorism, will not be tolerated. Otherwise,
if the Iranian leaders believe they can act with impunity, they will be more
emboldened and empowered to pursue their military adventurism.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh