English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 16/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.september16.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
I told you that you would die in your sins, for you will die in your sins unless you believe that I am he
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/21-27/:”Again he said to them, ‘I am going away, and you will search for me, but you will die in your sin. Where I am going, you cannot come.’Then the Jews said, ‘Is he going to kill himself? Is that what he means by saying, “Where I am going, you cannot come”?’He said to them, ‘You are from below, I am from above; you are of this world, I am not of this world. I told you that you would die in your sins, for you will die in your sins unless you believe that I am he.’They said to him, ‘Who are you?’ Jesus said to them, ‘Why do I speak to you at all? I have much to say about you and much to condemn; but the one who sent me is true, and I declare to the world what I have heard from him.’They did not understand that he was speaking to them about the Father.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 15-16/2022
Martyr Bachir Gemayal: The Grain of Wheat & the Yeast
Elias Bejjani/September 14/2022
Elias Bejjani’s Video & Text Political Commentary: Aoun Prime Minister (1988) and Aoun President (2016): Both Products of Geagea’s Personal Greedy Agenda and Lack of Political Vision/September 13 2002
Aoun meets Mikati at Baabda Palace
President Aoun receives credentials of newly accredited ambassadors of Denmark, Belgium, Finland and Canada
Lebanese President Stresses Progress on Border Demarcation
After heist, Lebanese activists promise more bank raids
Gantz: If Nasrallah attacks Karish, the price will be Lebanon
Berri says setting presidential vote without consensus would be 'adventure'
Report: Israel wants understanding, not full sea border agreement
Parliament begins debating 2022 state budget
Wael Sawan of Lebanon to become CEO of Shell
Lebanese Rejoice after Mayyas Win 'America's Got Talent'
The Cost of Giving up on Line 29/Hanna Saleh//Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 15-16/2022
Israeli Defense Minister: Iran Nuclear Deal 'in ER Room'
Protesters at UN HQ demand Iranian president be denied entry to US
Raisi Says Iran-Russia Cooperation Can Neutralize Limitations Imposed by US Sanctions
US Sanctions IRGC-Affiliated Individuals, Entities for Malicious Cyber Acts
US Offers $10 Million Reward for Information on 3 Iranians over Hacking Scheme
Iran Signs Memorandum to Join Asian Security Body Founded by Russia, China
Cease-fire Holds between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Sadr Maintains Silence amid Dispute between Opponents, Allies
55 Parties Receive Nomination Forms to Run in Upcoming Israel Elections
US Vows to Re-Evaluate its Position on Palestinian Organizations
Israel Reveals Iranian Missile Production Sites in Syria
Putin, Xi meet for high-stakes talks in challenge to West
Putin says Russia-Iran ties 'developing positively'
Russian troops fleeing Ukraine's counteroffensive — some in 'apparent panic' — abandoned 'high-value' weaponry, British intelligence says
Ukraine war: Russian military might 'is a big fake' - crack volunteer unit spearheads liberation of key city
Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line
Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line
New book says Trump feared assassination by Iran in revenge for Soleimani killing

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 15-16/2022
Don’t Just Applaud Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. Time To Send More Weapons/Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst/1945 website/September 15/2022
Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Terrorists/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/September 15/2022
Will King Charles Preserve the Throne?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022
Biden Calculates Iran and the American Elections/Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2022
Ukraine May Become More Successful Than Biden Wants/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/September, 15/2022
World must send Iran a strong message at UN General Assembly/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/September 15/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 15-16/2022
Martyr Bachir Gemayal: The Grain of Wheat & the Yeast
Elias Bejjani/September 14/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/45774/elias-bejjani-martyr-bachir-gemayal-the-grain-of-wheat-the-yeast/
John 12/24: “Most certainly I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains by itself alone. But if it dies, it bears much fruit.”
On September 14, 1982, on the same day that Lebanon was celebrating the Day of the Holy Cross, its President-elect, Sheik Bachir Gemayel, passed away into the hands of the Almighty God after carrying the cross of the country to heaven. He was not even 34 years old, but what he achieved for the freedom and dignity of Lebanon places him among the great men who left a stamp of glory on the history of Lebanon.
Bachir, the hero, dreamt of a sovereign, free and independent Lebanon, and his dream became the objective of all free-minded Lebanese men and women. And even as the hands of evil and hatred took him away through a cowardly assassination plot (14/09/82), his dream lives on in the fiber of our people and their conscience for as long as the Cedars of Lebanon tower over the country from their peaks.
Today we remember Bachir in our prayers. We also remember his fallen comrades who gave so much for our beloved country, and we learn from their sacrifice many a lesson. On this sad day, our hopes are renewed, our determination is re-energized, and our commitment to the cause is re-confirmed.
Bachir’s bright star was high in the skies of Lebanon and with it the hopes of the Lebanese people. But the joy was killed and the hopes dashed when his star fell from the skies, a martyr to his noble ambitions aiming at building a strong Lebanon, confirmed in its sovereignty and independence.
Bachir believed that “the one Lebanon is the Lebanon of the 10,452 km2, that the Lebanese must win back completely so that it belongs to its sons and daughters in all their communities, creeds, and beliefs”. But even as he departed, what he believed in remains in the hearts and minds of all the Lebanese people.
Bachir was raised on the cross of Lebanon on the day we remember the Cross. He was killed in a political act at the intersection of the interests of nations, individuals, and terrorist groups that feared for their own egotistical interests should a unified, free and sovereign Lebanon rise from its ashes. Bachir established the framework and then was unjustly taken from us too soon.
Those same regimes of evil, Syria and Iran, and groups and factions like the terrorists, Hezbollah, continue today to hold the Lebanese people and their country hostage to their greed, hatred, and savage schemes. They have mastered the art of subservience and bowing at the doorstep of the forces of occupation. They are shepherds of doom who have reneged on every pledge they made and abandoned their flock.
They are factions whose job is to drive wedges between the free people of the Land of the Cedars, assassinating their aspirations and hopes in deed, thought, decision and execution. They assassinate Lebanon every morning and every hour of their waking day, killing its sovereignty, its free decision-making, its democracy and culture.
Bachir’s venomous assassination still lingers to this day in all its ugliness, its corruption and its neglect. It still lingers in its displacement and emigration, Dhimmitude, apostasy, with economic, social, financial, political, security and patriotic decline.
It still lingers with the rule of personal over national interests. It still lingers with the dismemberment of the political parties; the politicization of the judiciary; the truncation of sovereignty with the imposition of foreign interference, and the abandonment of human, religious and ethical values.
Bachir’s dream is here to stay and will never disappear, because it is the dream of a people who want a dignified life, a dream that calls upon unity, sovereignty and peace.
We are today together to remember the martyrdom of Bachir and his 22 comrades, lifting our eyes and hearts in the midst of danger and trouble to the redeemer of suffering humanity, Jesus-Christ, who said “And if I were to rise above the earth, I shall take with me everyone” (John12/32). We ask Him for light, faith, strength, and hope to continue our march forward and lift ourselves, our homeland, and our people to victory, to peace, to righteousness, to freedom and to all that is good in this world. For Bachir is alive in our beings and in our minds.
Sheik Bachir, Lebanon’s elected president who was assassinated before assuming his presidential responsibilities was and still is the patriotic blessed yeast that was brewed and produced solid foundations of freedom, sovereignty and independence, as well as perseverance and hope in all Lebanese minds and hearts. Terrorists and powers of evil could not destroy the dream that Bachir left for us. Even the gates of hell shall not be able to shake our deeply-rooted faith in peace, love and democracy. Bachir is the grain of wheat and the yeast. Bachir’s dream is alive and glowing. As expressed in Galatians 5/9: “A little yeast grows through the whole lump”.
Bachir the Dream shall never die

Elias Bejjani’s Video & Text Political Commentary: Aoun Prime Minister (1988) and Aoun President (2016): Both Products of Geagea’s Personal Greedy Agenda and Lack of Political Vision
September 13 2002
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/111898/elias-bejjanis-video-text-political-commentary-aoun-prime-minister-1988-and-aoun-president-2016-both-products-of-geageas-personal-greedy-agenda-and-lack-of-political-vision/
From the outset, there is no real difference between Dr. Samir Geagea on one hand, and President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, Jobran Bassil, on the other. All three leaders hail from one and the same narcissistic mold, entirely devoid of a national political vision, and their sole interest is lust for power and nothing else. Which is why their political journey has been one of failure with its assortments of catastrophes that have tormented the country for as long as anyone can remember.
Perhaps the single difference between them is that Aoun and his son-in-law have shed all pretenses by blindly subordinating themselves as servile dhimmis to Hezbollah, going so far as to declare their pride openly and shamelessly in doing so. Geagea for his part conceals himself under a cloak of virtuous chastity, all the while trying to outbid the other two in bootlicking Hezbollah under the “Riachi” table in his quest for power, as was apparent in his recent interview with Fadi Abu-Daya on Al-Jadid.
For how can Geagea be against Hezbollah, he who expressed shame in remembering the South Lebanon Army, and who doesn’t have the return of our heroic refugees in Israel as his priority? His shills in his corporate party of the Lebanese Forces, Inc. publicly say that the martyrs of both sides (theirs and Hezbollah’s) are of the same clay, that the Persian party is made of authentic Lebanese fabric that they – Geagea’s Lebanese Forces – are trying to bring back inside the Lebanese house, that Hezbollah has liberated the south, and that their goal is to resolve the conflict with it by dialogue. More dangerous than all of this is that they legitimize Hezbollah’s occupation and hegemony and its Iranian project for Lebanon, by claiming that it is possible to achieve change and liberation and the recovery of decision-making via constitutional mechanisms, including elections and such, while Hezbollah has hijacked the state, the constitution, the institutions, and the authority, and is the ultimate decision-maker.
Let us tease their selective memory by going back to 1988, when Geagea obstructed the presidential election to prevent Sleiman Frangiyeh Sr. from acceding to the presidency, thus allowing Aoun to become the Prime Minister of the military government. In 2016, Geagea cloned the same obstructionist and short-sighted scenario by pushing Aoun’s candidacy, backing him, and praising his glorious achievements. He then co-signed with Aoun the Me’raab Memorandum in which they divvied up the booty between themselves, again with the goal of preventing the accession of Sleiman Frangiyeh Jr. to the presidency.
Who knows what Geagea is scheming today to block one more time the election of Sleiman Frangiyeh Jr. to the presidency? Based on his record of recklessness, lack of vision and treasonous behavior, he might as well back the election of Jobran Bassil as president!!!
In sum, and with good conscience, we believe that the leadership of our Maronite parties, namely Geagea, Frangiyeh, Aoun, Bassil, Gemayel Sr. and Jr. are abject failures. They have not achieved anything positive to their community, and because of them and their egotism, Lebanon has fallen to occupation, disintegration, and alienation. They all have turned a blind eye to the international resolutions on Lebanon and have indeed become hostile to them, for the simple motive of appeasing Hezbollah.
One of the most preposterous and childish justifications for Geagea’s backing of Aoun’s candidacy to the presidency in 2016 was – according to Geagea’s mouthpieces and close associates – to deal a blow to Aoun’s popular aura and bring his downfall by exposing him. What a mind-blowing strategy!
But what is the solution?
First, we need to rid ourselves of those intellectually-challenged and treasonous leaders. We need leaders with a deep sense of duty and moral responsibility, proponents of sovereignty, who are simply Lebanese patriots. Leaders who request the international community to place Lebanon under Chapter VII of the UN Charter and declare it a failed state, and assign its governance entirely to the hands of the United Nations. Otherwise, Lebanon is condemned to remain a hopeless case.
Let us remember that Lebanon is a sacred shrine whose protection and defense fall to the Maronites. Since Maronite leaders have skirted their responsibilities in this patriotic sacred mission, Lebanon has collapsed and won’t rise from its limbo without the advent of honorable, pious, patriotic Maronite guardians who will defend and protect it.

Aoun meets Mikati at Baabda Palace
NNA/September 14/2002
President Michel Aoun received Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati at Baabda Palace on Thursday. Following the meeting, Mikati told reporters that he would pay another visit to the President when he returns from New York. "I will not leave the presidential palace before the government is formed," he said

President Aoun receives credentials of newly accredited ambassadors of Denmark, Belgium, Finland and Canada
NNA/September 14/2002
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received credentials of four new ambassadors accredited to Lebanon.
Ambassadors are: Denmark's Ambassador Kristoffer Magnus VIVIKE, Belgium's Ambassador Koen VERVACKE, Finland's Ambassador Anne MESKANEN, and Canada's Ambassador Stefanie McCollum.
The official ceremonies to present the credentials took place, in the presence of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah Bou Habib, the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Hani Shmaitili, the Director General of Protocols at the Presidency of the Republic, Dr. Nabil Shedid, and the Director of Protocols at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Abeer Ali.
Upon the ambassadors' arrival, successively, to the presidential palace, the army's music played the anthem of the country represented by each ambassador, and the flags were raised on the mast of the presidential palace alongside the Lebanese flag.
Then, the ambassador of each country saluted the flag before being accompanied by the Republican Guard Brigade.
Ambassadors then entered the salon of October 22 amid two rows of spears, and from there to the ambassadors’ salon to present his credentials to President Aoun, and to introduce him to the members of the diplomatic mission.
Upon leaving, the army's music played the Lebanese national anthem.
During the ceremony, the ambassadors conveyed to President Aoun the greetings of their country's presidents and leaders, and stressed working on everything that would strengthen bilateral relations between their countries and Lebanon.
For his side, the President conveyed his greetings to the ambassadors to the leaders and heads of their countries, stressing in return Lebanon's keenness to strengthen relations with their friendly countries for the benefit of Lebanon, their countries, their people and the Lebanese.
President Aoun also wished the new ambassadors success in their new duties.
Biographies:
The following is a brief biography of the ambassadors who presented their credentials today:
Danish Ambassador Kristoffer Magnus VIVIKE
-Holds a BA in Political Science from the University of Copenhagen, and a Masters in European Science from the Institute of Economic and Political Science in London.
-Fluctuated in several administrative positions, where he worked between 1999-2001 as an assistant researcher at the Danish Institute of Foreign Affairs.
-Held several positions in Denmark’s foreign ministry, especially in the security department, African affairs, European Union affairs and his country's representative in NATO.
-Appointed between 2011-2013, as deputy head of his country's mission in Kabul.
-Appointed between 2016-2021, Director of Consular Affairs and Crisis Management in his country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Appointed between March 2021-September 2021 as the Special Representative of his country in resolving the Syrian crisis.
Belgium Ambassador Koen VERVACKE
-Holds a master's degree in contemporary history and art history from the University of Louvain.
-Attended courses in international mediation and maintaining security, by the United Nations.
-Holds 30 years of experience in international diplomacy, conflict avoidance, and mediation, as he held several positions in this context within the framework of European and Belgian diplomacy.
-Worked as Director and General Manager for Africa, between 2011-2020, in the European Department of Foreign Affairs.
-Worked on developing and managing strategic partnerships of the European Union with the countries of the Organization of African Unity, and regional organizations in the fields of politics, economic development and security.
-Distinguished, as the first special representative of the European Union to the Organization of African States, for laying the foundations for peace and security, especially in terms of resolving African conflicts.
-Served as Assistant in the European Unit of Mr. Javier Solana, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in Partnership with Mediterranean Countries and Africa
Finnish Ambassador Anne Meskanen:
-Holds a master's degree in political science from the University of Helsinki.
-Worked in the press, before she was appointed attache to the secretariat of the European Relations Department of her country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
- From 1997-2000, she was appointed as a second secretary to the deputy head of her country's mission in Romania.
-Appointed between 2000-2004 as a consultant to her country's mission to the United Nations - New York.
-Appointed between 2007-2011, deputy head of her country's mission in Syria, which covers Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan.
-Appointed between 2015-2017, her country's ambassador to Kabul.
-Between 2018-2020, she was appointed as an ambassador, Senior Adviser in the Department of Africa and the Middle East, and the Department of Asia and America, affiliated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of her country.
Canadian Ambassador Stefanie McCollum:
-Had a diverse set of management experience gained during 27 years of work in the Ministry of National Defense, the Canadian Armed Forces, the Office of the Minister of State for Public Works and Government Services in Canada, in addition to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency before joining the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2005 .
-Led the management and consular coordination programs in her country's offices in San Francisco, Cairo, Bucharest and São Paulo.
-Held the position of Director of the Emergency Control and Response Center in charge of providing assistance to citizens who are exposed to problems abroad, in addition to monitoring international events and crises that affect Canada's interest at the international level, and discussing how to deal with them.
-Appointed Director of the Administration Renewal Project, which aims to support the staff of the Consular Department at the Ministry of World Affairs of Canada.
-In 2018, she was appointed as Canada's ambassador to Qatar. -- Presidency Press Office

IMF to send mission to Lebanon next week to discuss slow reform progress
Reuters/September 15/2022
WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that a staff mission will visit Lebanon next week to discuss ways to “speed up” implementation of agreed reforms required for an IMF loan program amid deteriorating living conditions in the country.
“We are looking to support Lebanon as strongly as we can. It’s a difficult situation,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told a regular news briefing. “There’s been slow progress in implementing some of the critical actions that we think are required to move forward with a program.”The IMF and Lebanon in April reached a staff-level agreement on a $3 billion loan program, but this was contingent on enactment of a range of economic reforms, including addressing unrealized losses in Lebanon’s banking system. The slow progress, including what the IMF views as “key deficiencies” in a proposed bank secrecy law, has raised questions about whether Lebanon has the political will to meet key conditions for a program. Rice said the meetings in Beirut starting on Sept. 19 will “prepare the ground for a full mission” after a new Lebanese government is formed. “Delaying the implementation of these reforms only increases the costs to Lebanon and Lebanese people,” Rice added. Rice also said the Fund was “fully committed” to working closely with authorities in Egypt to help stabilize its economy amid shocks from the war in Ukraine, but declined to say whether a deal for an IMF loan program was close at hand. “We’re now working closely with Egyptian authorities with a view to you know, how we can do more to support our shared goals of economic stability and sustainable, job rich, medium-term growth for Egypt,” Rice said. “I don’t have the details on that, the discussions are ongoing with Egypt, but we’re fully committed.”

Lebanese President Stresses Progress on Border Demarcation
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Wednesday that he hoped his successor would complete the implementation of the anti-corruption process. He also noted that negotiations over the demarcation of the maritime border “have gone a long way,” pointing to technical details that are currently being studied “for the interest of Lebanon, its rights and sovereignty.”The president’s remarks came during a meeting with the new executive council of the Informatics and Technology Syndicate, at the Baabda Palace. “The completion of the demarcation of the southern maritime borders will enable Lebanon to launch oil and gas exploration in the specified fields within its exclusive economic zone, which will give the Lebanese economy a positive impetus,” Aoun stated. He added: “The communications to complete the demarcation file have gone a long way… There are technical details that are currently being studied for the interest of Lebanon, its rights and sovereignty.” US Mediator Amos Hochstein visited Beirut last week and met with senior Lebanese officials to listen to their viewpoint on some of the outstanding matters in the ongoing negotiations with Israel.
“I think we’re making good progress,” Hochstein said following his meeting with Aoun. “I’m very hopeful we can reach an agreement.” The US envoy was expected to convey the Israeli response to Lebanese conditions for the maritime border Friday. On a different note, Aoun told his visitors on Wednesday that the criminal financial audit of the Central Bank’s accounts was underway, adding that the first phase was set to be concluded by the end of September. He also expressed hope that his successor would complete the implementation of projects launched under his tenure, in particular the process of combating corruption.

After heist, Lebanese activists promise more bank raids
AP/September 15, 2022
BEIRUT: A Lebanese activist group on Thursday vowed to organize more bank heists to help people retrieve their locked savings as the country’s years-long economic crisis continues to worsen. Activists from Depositors’ Outcry group accompanied Sali Hafez into a Beirut bank branch on Wednesday, and she was able to retrieve some $13,000 in her savings to fund her sister’s cancer treatment. Hafez carried a toy gun when she walked into BLOM Bank on Wednesday, while the activists who accompanied her poured about gasoline, threatening to set the bank on fire if she did not get her money out.
The group told AP that they had also coordinated with a man who tried to take some of his money from a bank in the mountainous town of Aley. Local media said he carried an unloaded shotgun. Lebanon’s cash-strapped banks have imposed strict limits on withdrawals of foreign currency since 2019, tying up the savings of millions of people. About three-quarters of the population has slipped into poverty as the tiny Middle East country’s economy continues to spiral. Alaa Khorchid, the head of Depositors’ Outcry, said there is now no other choice for Lebanese bank depositors but to “take matters into their own hands.” He spoke at a press conference in Beirut. “BLOM Bank issues a statement saying that this is a pre-orchestrated operation. Yes it is, what were you thinking?” Khorchid told reporters, referring to the bank’s statement condemning Hafez and the activists.
“And we’re organizing more than this, and you have no choice. People’s rights are sacred,” he added, addressing banks in general. “The real beginning of the revolution started yesterday, when Sali Hafez entered the bank, and there is no turning back,” Ibrahim Abdullah, a member of the Depositors’ Outcry group said at the press conference. “This revolution is against all the banks.” Several groups advocating and protesting for Lebanese depositors have emerged since 2019, with some — like the one named the Depositors’ Union — opting to file lawsuits against banks to help depositors retrieve their money.
Wednesday’s heist occurred weeks after a food delivery driver broke into another bank branch in Beirut and held 10 people hostage for seven hours, demanding tens of thousands of dollars in his trapped savings. Many Lebanese hailed him as a hero. The standoff and public sympathy for those taking matters into their own hands to get their savings has exposed the depths of people’s despair in Lebanon’s economic crisis, which has pulled over three-quarters of the country’s population into poverty, unable to cope with skyrocketing food, electricity, and gasoline prices. Meanwhile, Lebanese officials struggle to implement structural reforms for an economic recovery plan approved by the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in loans and aid to make the country viable again.

Gantz: If Nasrallah attacks Karish, the price will be Lebanon
Naharnet/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned Thursday that “if (Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah wants to try and harm the Karish rig, he’s welcome to do so, but the price will be Lebanon.”“Israel is ready to reach a deal that will assist both countries economically and energy-wise. I believe there will be two gas rigs in the sea, one on the Israeli side and one on the Lebanese side,” he said. “We will protect our gas rig regardless,” Gantz added. Speaking earlier at the same conference, Israelui National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata said the maritime talks were “an excuse” for Nasrallah to ramp up threats. “Israel wants a stable Lebanon. We want to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. That is why we are trying to advance the negotiations on the maritime border. This is beneficial for security stability and the Lebanese economy,” Hulata said. “We hope that the Lebanese leadership will also work to reach an agreement and will not allow Hezbollah to increase instability. We are not deterred by Nasrallah’s threats. The Karish rig will start producing as soon as it is ready,” he added.

Berri says setting presidential vote without consensus would be 'adventure'
Naharne/Thursday, 15 September, 2022t
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Thursday noted that calling for a presidential vote session without at least “some consensus” would be an “adventure.”“This is my jurisdiction and when I assess that there is some sort of consensus, I will call for a session,” Berri said when asked by MP Paula Yacoubian about setting a date for a session to elect a new president. “It would be an adventure to enter parliament without the presence of consensus but rather a rift, that’s why patience is needed on this issue, and I’m seeking some consensus, not unanimity,” Berri added.

Report: Israel wants understanding, not full sea border agreement
Naharnet/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
All parties, including Hezbollah, are awaiting the next two weeks to decide on the next steps, and Lebanese sides concerned with the sea border negotiations have received signals that Israel wants an “understanding” and not a “full agreement” over demarcation, a media report said on Thursday. “The American side is showing clear desire to finalize the agreement before October, and it has advised the Israeli side not to postpone the matter until after the Israeli elections,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported. “Yair Lapid’s government, which fears for its political situation in the next elections, wants to reach an understanding that would allow it to begin extraction operations without giving the impression that it has bowed to Hezbollah’s pressures,” the daily added. “Lapid’s government wants to say that it can agree on a ‘blue line’ separating between the two sides without being obliged to steps that give the impression that it has bowed to the resistance. It is also concerned with reaching a swift agreement, because the agenda of the extraction companies are confined to a timeframe that does not exceed the first week of October,” al-Akhbar said. It added that Israel is planning to grant Lebanon “an understanding considering Line 23 and the Qana field as fully belonging to Lebanon, which would imply that Lebanon has acknowledged that Karish is not within the disputed area.”“Such an understanding would allow international firms to come explore in Lebanon, while the enemy gains the ability to begin extraction operations in Karish, therefore defusing Hezbollah's threats on the one side, and allowing Lapid’s government to say that it has not agreed to a full border demarcation nor to halting production in line with Hezbollah’s demands,” al-Akhbar added.

Parliament begins debating 2022 state budget

Naharnet/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Parliament on Thursday began discussing the draft 2022 state budget, a day after lack of quorum forced the postponement of a scheduled first session. Outside the legislature, sit-ins by retired servicemen, bank depositors and several associations and unions got underway in protest at the proposed state budget. Speaking at the session, the head of the finance parliamentary committee, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, said the proposed budget lacks a “an economic and social vision.”“The scenarios prepared by the Finance Ministry for exchange rates ranging between LBP 12,000, 14,000 and 16,000 will not secure the needed revenues, which the strips the budget of balance, because the revenues are not sufficient for covering salaries, social aid and public debt,” Kanaan added. Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab for his part decried “the procrastination in dealing with the social-economic-financial-security-health-educational crisis,” lamenting that “this state budget is based on borrowing.”MP Mohammed Raad meanwhile noted that “the draft budget reflects the financial situation in which the country is floundering.” “The government and its premier should not brag about the draft budget, but we should not hold exclusively hold them responsible for the current situation in the country,” Raad added.

Wael Sawan of Lebanon to become CEO of Shell
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Shell on Thursday announced the exit of chief executive Ben van Beurden as the British oil and gas giant looks to reinvent itself under group renewables boss Wael Sawan. Dutchman van Beurden, 64, will step down at the end of 2022 after nine years in charge of the energy major and nearly four decades as a Shell employee. Van Beurden has presided over rollercoaster oil prices fuelled by the Covid pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as overseeing a major corporate overhaul that saw it ditch "Royal Dutch" from its name. The outgoing CEO "can look back with great pride on an extraordinary 39-year Shell career," chairman Andrew Mackenzie said in a statement. He said van Beurden had been "in the vanguard for the transition of Shell to a net zero emissions energy business by 2050," adding that he "leaves a financially strong and profitable company."Oil and gas prices have rocketed this year, leaving Shell "with a robust balance sheet, very strong cash generation capability and a compelling set of options for growth," Mackenzie added. Shell has faced strong criticism over its net-zero plans from the environmental lobby, which accuses it of "greenwashing," or marketing a company as overly climate-friendly. Energy companies and businesses generally are seeking to slash carbon emissions in line with government targets on tackling climate change.
Strategy 'tweaks'
Shell hopes Beirut-born Sawan, 48, will boost the transition plans."For a group whose renewable strategy has been somewhat vague, though grand sounding, this is a clear marker that Shell intends to change this," said Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Sophie Lund-Yates. "Change won't happen overnight, but it's reasonable to think that at least tweaks to the existing renewable strategy could be on the cards." Mackenzie called Sawan "an exceptional leader, with all the qualities needed to drive Shell safely and profitably through its next phase of transition and growth."The incoming boss had a "track record of commercial, operational and transformational success" and a deep understanding of Shell and the broader energy sector, the chairman added. A dual Lebanese-Canadian national, Sawan has worked at Shell for 25 years in various roles in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Americas. He is currently director of integrated gas, renewables and energy solutions. "I'm looking forward to... grasp the opportunities presented by the energy transition," Sawan said in a statement.
- Oil price boom -
Van Beurden's tenure included oil prices collapsing into negative territory in 2020, as Covid lockdowns ravaged demand. Shell dived into a net loss of $21.7 billion in 2020 as factories shut and planes were grounded. That resulted in the group shedding thousands of jobs, mirroring the likes of British rival BP.
Oil prices have since rebounded sharply after economies reopened from pandemic lockdowns and following the attack on Ukraine by major crude producer Russia. Gas prices have also surged owing to the conflict, resulting in Shell's net profits rocketing more than five-fold to $18 billion in the second quarter of this year. This even as van Beurden carried out Shell's costly withdrawal from Russian gas and oil. Soaring profits for Shell and BP come as Britain's faces a cost-of-living crisis, igniting calls for the pair to be slapped with a far higher windfall tax than unveiled earlier this year by former finance minister Rishi Sunak. Last year, Van Beurden ushered in a simplification of Shell's complex structure, switching headquarters from the Netherlands to the UK and axing Royal Dutch from the front of its name. Van Beurden, appointed CEO in January 2014, will continue to work as advisor to the board until mid-2023.
Shell's share price was largely flat in morning deals on London's rising stock market.

Lebanese Rejoice after Mayyas Win 'America's Got Talent'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Lebanese celebrated the local dance troupe Mayyas on Thursday after it won the "America's Got Talent" TV contest, stoking joy and pride in a country battered by years of political and economic turmoil. Many fans, across age groups and religious lines in the crisis-tested country and its large diaspora, tearfully cheered the all-women group for what judges and viewers hailed as a hypnotic and mesmerizing performance. "Congratulations Mayyas, proud, proud, proud," tweeted Lebanese pop star Elissa, while caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati gushed that "Lebanese creativity shines" in the performance.
A Twitter user called Wael summed up the mood about the group that beat all the odds: "They come from a country ravaged by crisis and, despite the difficulties, they managed to be the best. Lebanese all around the world are proud of you." The troupe led by choreographer Nadim Cherfan scooped a $1 million prize and the chance to headline a Las Vegas show for their extravagant performance featuring belly dancing, feather fans and white orbs of light. "You gave us a glimpse of hope and showed the world what Lebanese women are capable of," tweeted another fan, DivaMaj, saluting the group that in 2019 won the Arabs Got Talent contest. Even the military joined in, declaring on Twitter, somewhat more stiffly, that "the army command congratulates the Mayyas group, its trainers and members, on winning America's Got Talent,” AFP reported. The Mayyas' win of the season finale brought rare respite and a moment of unity to the small country reeling from almost three years of deep economic hardship and political stalemate. Amid Lebanon's worst-ever economic crisis, the national currency has lost more than 90 percent of its value on the black market since 2019 while poverty and unemployment have soared. Beirut remains scarred by the huge portside blast of haphazardly stored ammonium nitrate in 2020, which killed more than 200 people, wounded thousands and decimated vast areas of the capital. In a reflection of the deep popular discontent, several people who have recently held up banks, using real or toy guns, to demand their frozen savings have been cheered as folk heroes by bystanders and on social media.

The Cost of Giving up on Line 29
Hanna Saleh//Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022
The Lebanese scene is surreal, sad, and funny:
The government vacuum continues, and no government that responds to the punitive votes cast on May 15 to a minimal degree will be allowed to take form.
The parties to the regime of sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing have accepted that electing a new president is “unfeasible” before the October 31 deadline. More catastrophic are the booby-traps that have littered the course of border demarcation negotiations with Israel, which has mastered navigating this minefield. It has taken advantage of the “Nitrate regime” conceding Line 29, the line that marks our borders and safeguards our rights and wealth!
At the same time, public institutions are crumbling. Some have collapsed, and others are on the brink. Over the past few months, things have been going downhill as Lebanon loses two of the services that had distinguished it: education and healthcare! On the other hand, the team of tyrants has decided against taking any measures to contain the collapse and allow us to eventually rehabilitate our institutions and state. However, the statelet’s encroachments continue to increase, and the fear is that we will see the crystallization of the requisites for the emergence of cartoon “statelets” that grant legitimacy to the statelet of Hezbollah! For months, they turned the people’s attention to wealth anticipated from the gas. The “solutions” they promoted for it were promises that it would silence the churning of empty stomachs. Aoun wanted to crown the presidential term of collapse and humiliation by announcing that Lebanon had become an oil and gas state, so he rushed to demarcate the borders at any cost. He has always been willing to give up on Lebanon’s sovereignty in the hope that he would be rewarded by the US through the lifting of the sanctions that have been imposed on Gebran Bassil.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah hijacked the state and shifted between using the border demarcation talks to strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in Vienna and establishing a new “Shebaa Farms” on the sea to maintain its arsenal. And in the certain knowledge that it can always avoid accountability, the party lavished promises of the gas wealth ending hunger and taking the Lebanese from one position to another economically!
In turn, the majority of Lebanese citizens hoped that the negotiations and excavation efforts would fail so their wealth under the sea could be protected until political conditions change, thereby allowing us to use this wealth to reinvigorate the country and benefit its people down the line.
The entire population would lose out if the authoritarians succeed in plundering Lebanon’s gas wealth. When they realized that the Aounists were dying to begin excavations in one zone while the sectarian duo of Amal and Hezbollah were dying to excavate another, with both camps behaving as though they were entitled to these zones! And because there are no secrets in Lebanon, we discovered that the team of tyrants has set up around fifty front companies, a process facilitated by the corrupt laws that govern the management of our wealth, which oblige the companies doing the excavation and extraction to sell the oil and gas only through these particular companies. That is, they are seizing our wealth!
For all of these reasons, we saw citizens call for delaying the excavation in order to prevent the theft of wealth. They made these calls as though they had been anticipating the World Bank report (published in August) that the “Ponzi scheme” in Lebanon that began once the war ended and worsened before the October 17 revolution and then got even worse afterward, turning it into the biggest heist in history. The report left no doubts about whether these fears had been justified as it demonstrated, with numbers and figures, that “public finance in post-civil war Lebanon has been an instrument for systematic capture of the country’s resources, as it served the interests of an entrenched political economy.”
For months, their media worked to sell the idea that Line 23 should demarcate our maritime border with Israel despite the lack of a legal argument since it is not based on our land borders. Their propaganda presented this as an achievement, creating optimism around Lebanon, having given up on Line 29, which begins in Ras al-Naqoura and passes through the border point B1- the border between Lebanon and Palestine that had been reached by the Paulet–Newcombe Agreement by the French and British mandatory powers.
This demarcation was then adopted by the League of Nations in 1924 and the armistice agreement between Lebanon and Israel in 1949. That is, Lebanon is entitled to much of the Karish field, where gas has been found. Those pushing the narrative that great achievements had been made during the negotiations overlooked the fact that the famous May 17 Agreement that the President at the time, Amine Gemayel, had concluded with Israel, would have given Lebanon the Karish field in its entirety, giving it more that it would have gotten from Line 29!
On September 9, it happened. The officials awaiting Amos Hochstein’s delivery of Tel Aviv’s written response to the generous Lebanese offer were surprised by what the “mediator” said during the visit, which was limited to 3 hours. He relayed a “promise” from Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid that Tel Aviv would “approve” of the 23rd line and grant Lebanon the Qana oil field, which has not been explored and about which there is no serious data. However, the “promise” was accompanied by demands for the adoption of the maritime “Blue Line” demarcation, which is based on Israel’s moving Israel’s 5-kilometer deep shifting “line of buoys…” making it obvious that Lapid’s “promise” is akin to Rabin’s “promise” to give back the Golan Heights!
Tel Aviv made several other demands that derailed all the propositions that had been made. The intentions of the enemy state to link maritime demarcation, the line of “blue buoys” that it has clung to in demarcating the land border, as though the latter had not already been cleared up!
Israel’s proposal, after Lebanese officials conceded 1,800 square kilometers of our exclusive economic zone, is a deal that allows it to take Lebanese territory: in exchange for the Qana field, Lebanon must give up on 13 of its demands, and the land borders would be modified, starting with Ras al-Naqoura, known as B1, which would erase the Blue Line that had been drawn in 2000! This is exactly what the researcher and historian Essam Khalifa had warned of, warning that the enemy would swallow up the dangerous concession and prepare it as a basis for reconsidering the land borders!
What happened during the maritime border demarcation negotiations with Israel is the expected outcome of the tyranny’s performance. They have jumbled a national issue together with their private interests, pushed aside the legal foundations of the negotiations, and slammed logistic considerations against the wall. They sidelined the negotiating team, whose members had been an elite group of experts and replaced it with small, corrupt brokers, disregarded the country’s sovereignty and their obligations to safeguard it, and they put themselves above the constitution.
They leaped from one round of negotiations to another in what Deputy Michel Douaihy called “losing secret bazaars.” Worse still, they had the audacity to target the negotiating team and push a misleading “positive” narrative that they well know misconstrues the truth. They were comfortable with the atmosphere created by the parties to the Ponzi Scheme and the impressions they gave about the wealth that would rain on them! This bitter experience tells us that this issue is not a question for the negotiating side. Rather, it concerns all the Lebanese and proposing a law that forces the executive to adopt Line 29 was among the first legislative actions that change deputies had taken. The bloc of change deputies must work to bring this matter back to parliament because addressing it in a manner that serves the national interest could save Lebanon and the Lebanese.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 15-16/2022
Israeli Defense Minister: Iran Nuclear Deal 'in ER Room'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers is "in the ER room" and is unlikely to be renewed soon, if at all, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said on Thursday after European leaders voiced doubt about Tehran's willingness to revive the pact. Israel, Iran's arch-foe, supported the US withdrawal from the accord in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump, who deemed it too limited, and has been advocating against a re-entry into the pact sought by President Joe Biden's administration. Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are seen by Israel as an existential threat, denies seeking atomic bombs. Since Trump's walkout, it has breached the 2015 deal by ramping up uranium enrichment, a process that can create bomb fuel down the line. "...The Iran nuclear deal seems like it is in the ER room," Gantz told a conference on counter-terrorism at Reichman University. "There's a period maybe after the elections, we'll see how it goes," he said in an apparent reference to the US mid-term November elections. His remarks echoed those of a senior unnamed Israeli official on Sunday who predicted the deal would not be signed before the November elections, Reuters reported. Israel is not a party to the Vienna-based talks on reinstating the 2015 deal. But its threats to take military action against Iran if it deems diplomacy to be at a dead end keep Western capitals attentive. On Saturday, France, Britain and Germany questioned Iran's commitment to reviving the deal in return for a lifting of sanctions, comments that were rejected by Tehran and called "very untimely" by Moscow. In August, after 16 months of tortuous negotiations, the European Union laid down a final offer to overcome an impasse over terms for restoring the agreement. Earlier this month, Iran sent its latest response to the EU's proposed text. Western diplomats said this was a step backwards, with Iran seeking to link a revival of the deal with the closure of U.N. nuclear watchdog investigations into unexplained nuclear activity by Tehran.

Protesters at UN HQ demand Iranian president be denied entry to US
Arab News/September 15/2022
LONDON: Protesters gathered outside the UN headquarters on Thursday to call for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to be denied entry to the US and prevented from speaking at the ongoing General Assembly. Holding placards and banners accusing Raisi of being a mass murderer and containing the hashtags “#NoVisa4Raisi” and “#ProsecuteRaisiNow,” the National Council of Resistance of Iran protesters also called for regime change in the Asian country. They accuse Raisi of the mass murder of 30,000 political prisoners in 1988, killing 1,500 people during uprisings in November 2019 and overseeing the execution of nearly 600 people since coming to power in August last year. One of the banners read: “UNGA and the USA is no place for a criminal and genocider.” Earlier this week, a bipartisan group of 52 US lawmakers asked President Joe Biden to deny Raisi entry to New York, while 500 Iranian-American professionals sent an open letter to Biden last week urging him to block the visit. “Raisi should stand trial before international tribunals for crimes against humanity and genocide,” the letter said. Raisi, who has been under US sanctions since November 2019 for “complicity in serious human rights violations,” did not attend last year’s General Assembly because of the COVID-19 pandemic and a pre-recorded video of his address was played to the meeting instead.

Raisi Says Iran-Russia Cooperation Can Neutralize Limitations Imposed by US Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a delegation of 80 large companies will visit Iran next week, Russian state-owned news agency RIA reported. Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi are at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan. Earlier, Iran's foreign minister said that Tehran had signed a memorandum to join the bloc. "By signing the document for full membership of the SCO, now Iran has entered a new stage of various economic, commercial, transit and energy cooperation," Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on his Instagram page. Raisi said that the cooperation between Iran and Russia “can significantly neutralize the limitations imposed on our countries by the US sanctions.”"Iran is determined to boost its ties with Russia, from economic to aerospace and political fields," Raisi said during his meeting with Putin, according to Iranian state media.

US Sanctions IRGC-Affiliated Individuals, Entities for Malicious Cyber Acts
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) for their role in malicious cyber acts. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned ten individuals and two entities for their roles in conducting malicious cyber acts, including ransomware activity. The Treasury said, in a statement, that the individuals and entities designated are all affiliated with the IRGC. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said the ransomware actors and other cybercriminals, regardless of their national origin or base of operations, have targeted businesses and critical infrastructure across the board, directly threatening the physical security and economy of the United States and other nations. "We will continue to take coordination action with our global partners to combat and deter ransomware threats, including those associated with the IRGC," said Nelson. This is the second set of sanctions imposed by the US Treasury within a week after it sanctioned Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and its Minister of Intelligence, Esmail Khatib, based on accusations in connection with a cyber-attack in July on Albania.
Meanwhile, the Special Envoy for Iran, Rob Malley, briefed Congress about the status of the nuclear negotiations. The session was closed to the public, so committee members could not express their dissatisfaction, but several expressed their anger over Malley's performance. Since his appointment by US President Joe Biden, the envoy faced severe criticism from several lawmakers. Recent media leaks showed increased frustration with Malley, and an Israeli official claimed the envoy now has a limited role in the negotiations, and the US decision to return to the agreement is out of his control. The administration was quick to deny this information, asserting that Malley is the special envoy for Iran and still very much in charge of the team and the US' efforts. State Department spokesperson Ned Price asserted there is nothing to those reports. "I can tell you Rob is deeply engaged day to day on the substance of this. He is leading a team here at the department," said Price.
The spokesman asserted that Malley is regularly engaging with counterparts at the White House, the Treasury Department, the Intelligence Community, and elsewhere regarding the efforts to achieve a joint return to compliance with the deal and Washington's contingency planning. The administration may have a stern defense to back its envoy, but it does not mitigate the implications of the Israeli media leaks. Congressional sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that Israeli officials are contacting prominent Senate and House of Representatives members to coordinate their rejection to return to the nuclear agreement. The Israeli Mossad head, David Barnea, was forced, during his recent visit to Washington, to cancel his testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence to evade any crisis with the White House, according to a committee source. The sources stated that some officials did not support Malley's appointment when the US first launched its efforts to return to the agreement, and events proved their position was correct. The Foreign Affairs Committee presented a draft resolution criticizing the administration on the same day of Malley's testimony. This proves the growing opposition to the envoy and the administration's approach to dealing with the negotiations. The proposed draft calls on the US President to hand over to Congress any documents related to the negotiations and inform it of any initiative or negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. According to the text of the proposed resolution, "the President is requested to transmit to the House of Representatives not later than 14 days after the date of the adoption of this resolution, copies of any document, memorandum, or other communication in his possession, or any portion thereof, that refers or relates to any initiative or negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program." The draft resolution reflects the dissatisfaction of bipartisan members of Congress with the lack of any coordination with them in this file and their fear that Biden will seek to bypass them if an agreement is reached, as former President Barak Obama did.

US Offers $10 Million Reward for Information on 3 Iranians over Hacking Scheme
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
The State Department is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of three Iranians, who it said have worked for tech companies linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. The Iranians have been charged with trying to extort hundreds of thousands of dollars from organizations in the United States, Europe, Iran and Israel, including a domestic violence shelter, by hacking in to their computer systems, US officials said on Wednesday. Other targets included local US governments, regional utilities in Mississippi and Indiana, accounting firms and a state lawyers' association, according to charges filed by the US Justice Department. The defendants, named Mansour Ahmadi, Ahmad Khatibi and Amir Hossein Nikaein, are citizens of Iran who own or are employed by private technology companies in the country. The Treasury Department also imposed sanctions on the three Iranians, as well as several other individuals and two organizations they said were part of Tehran's "malicious" cyber and ransomware activity. “The government of Iran has created a safe haven where cybercriminals acting for personal gain flourish and defendants like these are able to hack and extort victims, including critical infrastructure providers,” said Matthew G. Olsen, the assistant attorney general of the Justice Department’s national security division. The men remain at large in Iran, and prosecutors said they were highly unlikely to face trial in the United States. Officials said they hoped that by exposing the group, they might prevent future attacks.

Iran Signs Memorandum to Join Asian Security Body Founded by Russia, China

Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Iran has signed a Memorandum of Obligations to become a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Iran's foreign minister said on Thursday, as Tehran seeks to overcome economic isolation amid US sanctions. "By signing the document for full membership of the SCO, now Iran has entered a new stage of various economic, commercial, transit and energy cooperation," Hossein Amirabdollahian wrote on his Instagram page, according to Reuters. Last year, the rapidly-expanding central Asian security body, whose founding heavyweights are China and Russia, approved Iran's application for accession, while Tehran's hardline rulers called on members to help it form a mechanism to avert sanctions imposed by the West over its disputed nuclear program. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was in the Silk Road oasis of Samarkand, Uzbekistan on Thursday to attend a summit of the organization. He was expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian media reported. The body, formed in 2001 as a talking shop for Russia, China and ex-Soviet states in Central Asia, expanded four years ago to include India and Pakistan, with a view to playing a bigger role as counterweight to Western influence in the region. Iran will now be able to take part in meetings, although it is likely to take some time to achieve full membership, deputy secretary-general of the organization Grigory Logvinov told Russian state TV, which also reported the signing. Iran's economy has been hit hard since 2018, when then-US President Donald Trump abandoned Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, including Russia and China. Months of indirect talks between Iran and US President Joe Biden's administration have hit a dead end over several obstacles to reviving the nuclear pact, under which Tehran agreed to curbs on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions.

Cease-fire Holds between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
A cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan held Thursday following two days of fighting that killed 176 soldiers from both sides. Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, said the truce brokered thanks to international mediation took effect at 8 p.m. (1600 GMT) Wednesday. A previous cease-fire that Russia brokered Tuesday had quickly failed, The Associated Press said. Armenia's Defense Ministry said Thursday that the situation on the border with Azerbaijan has been quiet since the cease-fire started and no violations were reported. There was no immediate comment from Azerbaijan’s government. The cease-fire declaration followed two days of heavy fighting that marked the largest outbreak of hostilities between the two longtime adversaries in nearly two years. Armenia and Azerbaijan traded blame for the shelling, with Armenian authorities accusing Baku of unprovoked aggression and Azerbaijani officials saying their country was responding to Armenian attacks. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Wednesday that 105 of his country’s soldiers had been killed since fighting erupted early Tuesday, while Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said Thursday it lost 71. The ex-Soviet countries have been locked in a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is part of Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a separatist war there ended in 1994.
During a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed broad swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories held by Armenian forces. More than 6,700 people died in the fighting, which ended with a Russia-brokered peace agreement. Moscow deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as peacekeepers under the deal. Pashinyan said that his government has asked Russia for military support amid the latest fighting under a friendship treaty between the countries, and also requested assistance from the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. He added that “we don’t see military intervention as the only possibility, because there are also political and diplomatic options.”
Yerevan's plea for help has put the Kremlin in a precarious position as it has sought to maintain close relations with Armenia, which hosts a Russian military base, and also develop warm ties with energy-rich Azerbaijan. On Wednesday, Pashinyan told lawmakers that Armenia is ready to recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity in a future peace treaty, provided that it relinquishes control of areas in Armenia its forces have seized. “We want to sign a document, for which many people will criticize and denounce us and call us traitors, and they may even decide to remove us from office, but we would be grateful if Armenia gets a lasting peace and security as a result of it,” Pashinyan said. Some in the opposition saw the statement as a sign of Pashinyan’s readiness to cave in to Azerbaijani demands and recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. Thousands of angry protesters quickly descended on the government’s headquarters, accusing Pashinyan of treason and demanding he step down. Protests were also held in other Armenian cities.

Sadr Maintains Silence amid Dispute between Opponents, Allies

Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Iraq's Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) announced that they were in favor of holding early elections, provided that they would be supervised by a government with full powers. The head of Al-Sadrist Movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, had called on his allies to follow his step and withdraw from Parliament. However, the recent decision of the two parties was seen by the forces of the Shiite Coordination Framework as an implicit support for their stance regarding holding elections and forming the next government, through a parliamentary session. Al-Sadr, who did not respond to the announcement of his former allies, also ignored calls made by parties within the Coordination Framework about the importance of communicating with him to form a new government, amid differences that began to emerge within the ranks of the Framework forces. Well-informed political sources noted that the undeclared truce imposed by Al-Arbaeen march to the city of Karbala, at the conclusion of the Ashura rituals, did not push the conflicting parties to resolve their dispute. The forces of the Coordination Framework, which clashed with Sadr’s supporters in Baghdad’s Green Zone about two weeks ago, are not about to present any concession, especially with regards to dissolving Parliament or accepting that Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi supervise the early elections, along with President Barham Salih. In an attempt to overcome the obstacle that prevents the appointment of a prime minister without electing a president, the Coordination Framework is seeking to persuade the two Kurdish parties (the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union) to resolve the node of the president’s election. While Massoud Barzani, the leader of the KDP, found in Sadr’s call to keep Barham Salih an opportunity for a rapprochement with the Coordination Framework, the latter, which is already divided over the stance towards Sadr, is now witnessing internal divisions over the term of Salih and Kadhimi. This situation is further complicating efforts to reach a solution, amid fears of a resurgence of street clashes.

55 Parties Receive Nomination Forms to Run in Upcoming Israel Elections

Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
Israel heads to the polls for the fifth time in under four years and is scheduled to hold its 25th Knesset (Israel's parliament) elections on Nov.1. The process to submit candidate lists to the Central Election Committee started on Wednesday morning, as 55 parties have received their nomination forms so far. Registration for parties seeking to run in the upcoming elections will end on Thursday at 10 pm. Not all of the parties who requested the forms shall run in the upcoming elections. In the last elections, 39 lists competed, but only 13 lists passed the electoral threshold (3.25% of the vote). Former MK Eli Avidar’s Israel Free and Democratic party was the first to submit its list. Avidar, who is known to be of Egyptian origin and speaks Arabic fluently, was until recently a member of Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party before rebelling against his former faction and the outgoing coalition several times and ultimately forming his own faction. He sought to pass a law to prevent indicted politicians from becoming prime minister and accused Bennet of withholding the law citing fears from Netanyahu and his camp, and said that failure to enact this law would overthrow the government and return Netanyahu to power. Hadar Muchtar, who chairs the Fiery Youth party, was the second to submit her list. The party is running on a platform of combating the surging cost of living and corruption. It also advocates greater public involvement in the political process by holding referendums on a number of issues. Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party applied next, followed by Lieberman’s party, Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right religious Zionism party, and former Israeli Ministry of Finance accountant general Yaron Zelekha’s New Economic Party. Most politicians postpone submitting their lists until the last moments, especially parties with disagreements, such as Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and the Joint List coalition of Arab factions and others. The three Israeli factions currently within the Joint List agreed to run together again on Wednesday.

US Vows to Re-Evaluate its Position on Palestinian Organizations
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 15 September, 2022
The US administration has agreed to re-examine its position in rejecting Tel Aviv's decision to ban the activities of six Palestinian organizations. A high-ranking Israeli delegation arrived in the US, seeking Washington's support for Tel Aviv's designation of the Palestinian civil society groups as terrorist organizations.
Political sources revealed that the Israeli government has been angered by the statements of US officials expressing concern over Tel Aviv's decision to close the offices of six Palestinian NGOs in the West Bank. Consequently, Tel Aviv sent a high-ranking delegation to Washington, including military, Shin Bet, and Public Prosecution officials, to meet with US officials. The sources said the delegation provided new information about the activities of these associations and clarified their alleged role in supporting terrorism. The delegation also presented a list of 250 other NGOs in the West Bank that Tel Aviv has no problem with, even though most of them are very critical of Israel. The delegation requested that the US administration change its position and support Israel in its decision to ban the activities of these associations. According to the Israelis, the US did not respond to their request, but it is currently evaluating the additional information. Israeli forces have raided the ADDAMEER Prisoner Support and Human Rights Association, Defense for Children International – Palestine, al-Haq, the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC), and the Union of Palestinian Women Committees, as well as Bisan Center for Research and Development. They confiscated computers, documents and files, arrested several activists, and prepared a report claiming they were all operating under the leadership of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. The report was addressed to the US administration and the European Union, requesting they stop funding these associations. Following this, European countries examined the Israeli information, concluded there was insufficient evidence to corroborate these accusations, and decided to continue supporting them.The US expressed its concern and said that it was in contact with the Israeli government to obtain more information about these organizations.

Israel Reveals Iranian Missile Production Sites in Syria
FDD/September 15/2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz displayed a map on Sept. 12 that shows the Syrian location of 10 “production facilities for mid- and long-range, precise missiles and weapons” that Iran has “provided to Hezbollah and Iranian proxies.” He said Tehran is also “working to build missile and weapon industries in Lebanon and Yemen” as part of its campaign to destabilize the region. If the United States lifts sanctions on Iran as part of a nuclear deal, Gantz warned, this would “double or even triple their terror budget.”
Expert Analysis
“Tehran has taken advantage of economic and political instability in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza to proliferate advanced weapons to its proxies and unify the so-called Axis of Resistance as an effective tool to attack Israel.”
– Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
“Syria’s Assad regime relies on Tehran no less than Moscow for its survival. Tehran does not flinch at the atrocities Assad has committed. In return, Assad has given the Iranians free rein to turn his country into a conduit for arming Hezbollah and a launchpad for aggression against Israel.”
– David Adesnik, FDD Senior Fellow and Director of Research
Syria’s Chemical Weapons and Ballistic Missile Infrastructure
Gantz said the 10 sites on his map are part of a network that belongs to the Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SSRC), which the U.S. Treasury Department describes as a “Syrian government agency responsible for developing and producing non-conventional weapons and ballistic missiles.” The Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations have all sanctioned the SSRC and/or its affiliates for supporting Syria’s chemical weapons program and related activities.
Iran’s ‘Precision Project’ for Targeting Israel
Hezbollah has assembled an arsenal of more than 100,000 rockets and missiles in Lebanon, yet its inventory of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) numbers only in the hundreds. These include the Iranian Fateh-110 road-mobile ballistic missile and its Syrian cousin, the M-600.
PGMs, which can correct their course mid-flight, pose a grave threat to Israel, a small country with little redundancy of critical infrastructure. Sufficient PGMs could rapidly disable Israel’s energy and water systems as well as its air and seaports. Accordingly, Iran has prioritized efforts to equip Hezbollah with PGMs.
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria
Regarding Israel, Hezbollah explained in its original manifesto, “Our struggle will only end when this entity is obliterated.” Thus, when Iran accelerated its “precision project” during the Syrian civil war, Israel adopted a “policy to prevent the transfer of game-changing weapons to Hezbollah in Syrian territory,” said then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018. With increasing frequency, Israel has targeted shipments of Iranian weapons as they traverse Syrian territory, along with facilities that support Tehran’s efforts. In 2019, then-Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said, “We struck thousands of targets,” adding that the Israeli Air Force dropped 2,000 bombs in Syria in 2018 alone.

Putin, Xi meet for high-stakes talks in challenge to West
Agence France Presse/September 15, 2022
Russia's Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping gather with other Asian leaders in the ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand from Thursday for a regional summit touted as a challenge to Western global influence.
Xi and Putin will be joined by the leaders of India, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and several other countries for the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Uzbek city on Thursday and Friday. The main summit day will be Friday, but it is a meeting of the Russian and Chinese leaders on Thursday that will be the most closely watched. Both had arrived in the city ahead of the talks, with Putin emerging from his plane under sunny skies to be greeted by an honor guard on the tarmac before being whisked away in a convoy of black vehicles. For Putin, the summit is a chance to show that Russia cannot be isolated internationally, at a time when Moscow's forces are facing major battlefield setbacks in Ukraine.For Xi -- on his first trip abroad since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic -- it is an opportunity to shore up his credentials as a global statesman ahead of a pivotal congress of the ruling Communist Party in October. And for both leaders, the summit will be a chance to thumb their noses at the West, especially the United States, which has led the charge in imposing sanctions on Russia over Ukraine and angered Beijing with recent shows of support for Taiwan.
"The SCO offers a real alternative to Western-centric organizations," Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow this week. "All members of the SCO stand for a just world order," he said, describing the summit as taking place "against the background of large-scale geopolitical changes".
- Tight security, empty streets -
Entry to Samarkand, a city of grand tiled mosques that was one of the hubs of Silk Road trade routes between China and Europe, was restricted in the days ahead of the summit, with its airport shut to commercial flights. The streets and its famed markets stood largely empty as AFP journalists visited on Wednesday, and schools were to be closed for the two days of the summit. Security was tight across the city, with a huge police presence on the streets and armored vehicles parked downtown. Residents told AFP of their pride in hosting the summit, pointing to Samarkand's long history as an international crossroads. "We are proud that so many leaders of various countries are gathering in our city. Samarkand from ancient times was a legendary city," said 26-year-old Shakhboz Kombarov. The SCO -- made up of China, Russia, India, Pakistan and the ex-Soviet Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -- was set up in 2001 as a political, economic and security organization to rival Western institutions. It is not a formal military alliance like NATO or a deeply integrated bloc like the European Union, but its members work together to tackle joint security issues, cooperate militarily and promote trade. The summit's main joint session will be on Friday but much of the focus will be on bilateral talks. As well as Xi, Putin will meet Thursday with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, then on Friday with Indian premier Narendra Modi and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Iran is an SCO observer state and Erdogan has been a key broker in deals between Russia and Ukraine on issues like grain shipments.
- 'No-limits' friendship -
It was not clear who Xi might meet separately, though talks with Modi would be their first since 2019, after relations between China and India turned frosty over deadly fighting in 2020 on their disputed Himalayan border. Formerly Cold War allies with a tempestuous relationship, China and Russia have drawn closer in recent years as part of what they call a "no-limits" relationship acting as a counterweight to the global dominance of the United States. Xi and Putin last met in Beijing in early February for the Winter Olympic Games, days before Putin launched the military offensive in Ukraine. Beijing has not explicitly endorsed Moscow's military action, but has steadily built economic and strategic ties with Russia over the six months of the conflict, with Xi assuring China's support of Russian "sovereignty and security." Russia has in turn backed China over Taiwan, calling U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island this summer a "clear provocation."

Putin says Russia-Iran ties 'developing positively'

Agence France Presse/September 15, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed growing ties with Tehran as he met Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on the sidelines of a regional summit on Thursday. "On the bilateral level, cooperation is developing positively," Putin said, as Moscow looks to use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan to show it is not isolated internationally despite the conflict in Ukraine.

Russian troops fleeing Ukraine's counteroffensive — some in 'apparent panic' — abandoned 'high-value' weaponry, British intelligence says
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/September 15, 2022
Britain's defense ministry said Russian troops left behind equipment with "essential" capabilities. It shared in an intelligence update that some Russians fled Ukraine's advances "in apparent panic." Russian troops who fled Ukraine's lightning counteroffensive left behind "high-value" weaponry and equipment, the UK said on Thursday. Britain's defense ministry said in a new intelligence update that Ukrainian forces have continued to "consolidate" control over territory in the country's northeastern Kharkiv region. There, the ongoing fast-paced offensive has sent Russian troops scrambling from their positions, where they have left behind a mountain of ammunition and weaponry, including their rifles. "High-value equipment abandoned by retreating Russian forces included capabilities essential to enable Russia's artillery-centric style of warfare," Britain's defense ministry shared, adding that at least one "ZOOPARK counter-battery radar" and an "IV14 artillery command and control vehicle" were left behind. Ukraine's military said last week that it captured a Zoopark-1М radar system designed to detect enemy artillery activity for target acquisition "as a trophy." But Russia left behind far more than just these systems.
"They left a huge amount of vehicles and ammunition," a Ukrainian commander told The Telegraph this week. "We couldn't transfer or evacuate it all to our rear."Britain's defense ministry also said in its update that the way that Russian forces have fled from their positions has varied. Some soldiers reportedly put on civilian clothes to escape in disguise while others stole vehicles and bicycles from locals, Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces said earlier this week. "Some units retreated in relatively good order and under control, while others fled in apparent panic," Britain's defense ministry said on Thursday.Since the start of September, Ukraine's counteroffensive has seen the eastern European country reclaim thousands of square miles of territory previously occupied by Russia. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the newly liberated city of Izium — in the Kharkiv region — for a flag-raising ceremony. "Our blue-yellow flag is already flying in the de-occupied Izium. And it will be so in every Ukrainian city and village. We are moving in only one direction — forward and towards victory," he said later on Telegram. Russian state media has framed the retreat of President Vladimir Putin's troops as a "regrouping" of forces, even as local officials and propagandists start to raise eyebrows and criticize the war machine. And yet, the Russian leader still believes he was right to invade Ukraine, Germany's chancellor said this week. Meanwhile, Pentagon Spokesperson Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Tuesday that Ukraine's success so far — and the speed at which it is advancing — should only come as a surprise to Putin and his forces. "Certainly, since the beginning of Russia's invasion into Ukraine, we've seen the Ukrainians demonstrate a remarkable adaptability in their ability to use their warfighting capabilities to great effect, so it's not surprising to us that they have pushed as quickly as they have," he said. Ukraine has "shown a remarkable ability to take advantages of opportunities that present themselves on the battlefield, and the current counteroffensive in Kharkiv is no exception to that," Ryder said.

Ukraine war: Russian military might 'is a big fake' - crack volunteer unit spearheads liberation of key city
Sky News/September 15, 2022.
The Ukrainian soldier stooped over an ammunition box and picked up what looked like a giant, metal cork. "Russian landmine," he said. He walked to another discarded crate inside a large warehouse.
"This is a mortar," the serviceman, 39, said, holding up the deadly weapon, which was the shape of a stretched, grey-coloured balloon. The haul was part of a stockpile of ammunition found at a sprawling, mud-splattered repair yard, which Russian soldiers had apparently used as a base on the edge of the Ukrainian city of Izyum. It had been left behind, along with shabby-looking bits of body armour, boots and jars of food - signs of a hasty Russian retreat in the face of a Ukrainian offensive to take the city back. Ukraine war latest updates: President Zelenskyy accuses Russia of turning occupied areas 'into toilets' The soldier - who went by the name Granitsya, the call-sign he said he used for the war - was part of the operation. "They just ran away," he said, describing the advance, launched last week. "There was small arms fire but not the big combat that we saw in the first days or months of the invasion." Sky News met the volunteer soldier as he stood next to an abandoned Russian tank on a street leading further into Izyum. Asked how he felt before the operation to attack Russian positions across the Kharkiv region started, he said: "I wasn't scared because of what they did to our country. They killed our women, our children, there is no fear. It is only hatred and a desire to tear them apart. "We are a special unit - Kraken - everyone knows us. We are working to defend our country."
Abandoned Russian equipment
The Kraken Regiment is a relatively well-known group of military volunteers within the Ukrainian armed forces. Behind him, members of his unit were climbing over the top of the discarded tank, making sure it was safe. The vehicle will be given a wartime makeover, effectively switching sides. Granitsya took Sky News to the nearby repair yard. Inside one enormous hanger, were two Russian military trucks. At least one had the tell-tale letter 'Z' daubed in white paint on a door. Russian troops used the place to repair their military vehicles, the Ukrainian soldier said.
His side appeared to have been aware. A giant hole in the roof marked the point where a projectile looked to have struck the site, presumably as part of Ukraine's offensive. Pock marks caused by shrapnel dented the walls and twisted pieces of metal littered the floor. On another part of the compound, inside a dingy, unlit cluster of makeshift rooms, was where the Russians slept and ate, according to Granitsya. "Russian, Russian, Russian," he said, pointing to a heap of shabby green body armour and dirty boots. There was also a long box containing jars of what could have been pickles.
'There is no one to fear them'
Stepping back outside, he exclaimed again: "Russian", picking up parts of a rusty gun that he said had been fitted to a vehicle. Granitsya had been a full-time soldier fighting in eastern Ukraine between 2017 and 2020, following Russia's first invasion in 2014. He had decided to leave the armed forces but joined the Kraken unit on 24 February after President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale war. The soldier was scathing about the quality of the Russian military. "Their army is not big and powerful," he said. "It is a big fake. They create this fake [impression of strength] to make other countries afraid. But in reality there is no one to fear them."

Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Thu, September 15, 2022
- Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that if the United States decided to supply Kyiv with longer-range missiles, it would cross a "red line" and become "a party to the conflict".In a briefing, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that Russia "reserves the right to defend its territory". Washington has supplied Ukraine with advanced rockets that can hit targets up to 80 km (50 miles) away, while so far holding back from publicly announcing it would send rockets with more than double that range. U.S. officials say Ukraine has promised not to use U.S. rockets to strike Russian territory.
"If Washington decides to supply longer-range missiles to Kyiv, then it will be crossing a red line, and will become a direct party to the conflict," Zakharova said. Ukraine has requested and received large quantities of weapons from the United States and other Western allies to help it resist the Russian armed forces that were sent into Ukraine in February. Moscow says it sent troops to prevent Ukraine being used as a platform for Western aggression and to defend Russian speakers. Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss these arguments as baseless pretexts for an imperial-style war of aggression.

New book says Trump feared assassination by Iran in revenge for Soleimani killing
Times of Israel/September 15/2022
A year after ordering hit on senior Iranian general, Trump reportedly told friends he was worried about Iranian retaliation
During his last days in office, former US president Donald Trump expressed concerns to friends that Iran would try to assassinate him in revenge for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which he’d ordered the previous year, according to a new book.
The Guardian on Wednesday published excerpts from “The Divider,” by journalists Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, which examines the former president’s turbulent tenure in the White House.
The book looks closely at the Trump administration’s policy toward Iran. During his last days in office, former US president Donald Trump expressed concerns to friends that Iran would try to assassinate him in revenge for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which he’d ordered the previous year, according to a new book. The Guardian on Wednesday published excerpts from “The Divider,” by journalists Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, which examines the former president’s turbulent tenure in the White House.
The book looks closely at the Trump administration’s policy toward Iran.Publicly, the former president seemed to gloat after the successful strike on Soleimani, calling the slain Iranian general “a bad guy” and saying “We stopped him and we stopped him quickly and we stopped him cold.
“He was a bloodthirsty terrorist, and he’s no longer a terrorist. He’s dead.” In private, however, he wasn’t so confident, according to Baker and Glasser’s book. About a year after the strike, in December 2020, Trump left a cocktail party in Florida, telling his friends he was afraid of Iranian retaliation.
“At a cocktail party, Trump told several of his Florida friends he was afraid Iran would try to assassinate him, so he had to go back to Washington where he would be safer,” the book states. This incident apparently took place shortly after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened to avenge Soleimani and hold those behind his killing accountable. “Those who ordered the murder of General Suleimani, as well as those who carried this out, should be punished. This revenge will certainly happen at the right time,” Khamenei tweeted on December 16, 2020.
Returning to Washington, Trump then began shifting his focus toward the elections and pressuring his vice-president, Mike Pence, to block electoral college results confirming his defeat to Joe Biden, Baker and Glasser wrote. Soleimani, 62, was killed on January 3, 2020, in a US airstrike carried out by an MQ-9 Reaper drone. He was struck while traveling from Baghdad’s international airport. Confirming his death at the time, the US Department of Defense said “Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region.” The IRGC is a US-designated terrorist organization.The attack came hours after then-US defense secretary Mark Esper said that Washington was ready to step up activities to push Iran-backed forces out of Iraq, including pre-emptive strikes.
The assassination marked a major escalation in a simmering conflict between the US and Iran. Several days after the general’s death, Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles at two US bases in Iraq. The Pentagon said dozens of troops suffered traumatic brain injuries as a result.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 15-16/2022
Don’t Just Applaud Ukraine’s Counteroffensive. Time To Send More Weapons

Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst/1945 website/September 15/2022
The Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv and Kherson have erased months of Moscow’s territorial gains and destroyed or captured large amounts of Russian military equipment, ammunition, and personnel. These operations demonstrate that Kyiv has the political will and military capability to seize the initiative and retake occupied territory when armed with weapons from the United States and its allies.
To defeat Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, reduce the duration and humanitarian costs of the war, and advance core Western economic and security interests, now is not the time to sit back and simply admire the performance of Ukrainian forces. Washington and its allies should urgently redouble efforts to provide Ukrainians with the necessary weapons.
On August 29, Ukraine announced a counteroffensive in the country’s southern Kherson Oblast, aiming to liberate a key city by the same name. After imperiling Russian frontline positions by striking supply depots and bridges for weeks, a spokesperson from Ukraine’s southern command said Ukrainian forces had advanced tens of kilometers in Kherson Oblast and Russian forces had retreated to their second line of defenses. The Pentagon confirmed that Ukraine has made forward progress and that some Russian units have fallen back as a result.
Then, on September 6, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast, benefiting from Russia repositioning some of its forces closer to Kherson in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. While the battle is still underway and details are hazy, Ukrainian forces have smashed through Russian lines and retaken almost 3,800 square kilometers of territory since September 6, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Ukrainian forces have entered the strategic city of Izyum, the key logistical hub of Kupyansk, and dozens of other towns.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces beat a hasty retreat, leaving behind large quantities of equipment and ammunition, even as Russian state media struggles to put a positive spin on events.
These developments prove that Kyiv has the political will and military forces with the tactical and operational acumen to retake occupied Ukrainian territory. Arguments that Ukraine is too outmatched to go on offense or that Western aid won’t make a difference are increasingly being undermined by reality on the ground. In determining the path forward in terms of support for Ukraine, it is important to recognize that the stakes in Ukraine are incredibly high for Europeans, Americans, and other democratic allies and partners far from the war itself. Russia is attempting to use military force to redraw international borders. A similar “might makes right” impulse helped spark two world wars in Europe in the last century. If Putin’s gambit succeeds, we should expect more aggression on the continent from the Kremlin and other autocrats elsewhere.
Beijing, in particular, is watching to see how the U.S. and Europe will respond in both the short and long term to Putin’s invasion. We should expect the Chinese Communist Party to draw relevant lessons for prospective aggression against Taiwan. To deter additional aggression in Europe and shift Beijing’s cost-benefit analysis in the Taiwan Strait, the United States and like-minded democracies must continue to provide Kyiv with the means to defeat the Russian invasion soundly.
Nevertheless, some are questioning whether the United States can afford to continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs. According to the Pentagon, the United States has committed more than $14.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine since February 2022.
That is certainly not a small amount of money, but it’s important to put it in perspective. The Biden administration requested $773 billion for the Department of Defense for fiscal year 2023. In comparison, the $14.5 billion allotted to Ukraine since February represents less than 1.9 percent of that amount.
When one considers the benefits for Americans associated with helping Ukraine defeat Putin’s invasion, that investment looks like a bargain. Cutting future military support for Kyiv would be penny wise and pound foolish.
For these reasons, instead of simply applauding the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the United States should continue providing military aid to Ukraine, focusing on the weapons and capabilities most needed to support Kyiv’s efforts to liberate and hold Ukrainian territory. This aid should include more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) as well as the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rounds they fire. Kyiv has reportedly requested an additional 2,000 of these munitions.
Additionally, providing the Army Tactical Missile System, a longer-range missile fired from HIMARS, would allow Kyiv to strike key Russian logistics nodes and other high-value targets within Ukrainian territory far beyond the range of Ukraine’s current precision-strike capabilities.
Finally, decision-makers should not ignore the over 6,300 relevant Russian- or Soviet-origin weapon systems currently in the possession of non-NATO countries, some of which could be transferred to Ukraine. Even just spare parts for those systems would be invaluable for Ukraine as it strives to maintain its own Soviet-made (and captured Russian) equipment. Washington and its allies should also continue working to secure 152mm and 122mm rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet-made artillery, even as Ukraine transitions to NATO-standard 155mm artillery rounds.
Ukrainians have demonstrated both the will and the ability to take back their territory. They have the bravery, skill, and determination necessary to defeat Putin’s invasion. The only question is whether the West will provide Kyiv with the weapons necessary to finish the job.
*Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and previously served as national security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. *Ryan Brobst is a research analyst at FDD. Follow Bradley on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
*John Hardie, Deputy Director of FDD’s Russia Program, contributed to this article.

Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Terrorists

Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/September 15/2022
One thing is for sure. Abbas will not tell his audience at the UN that members of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where they are carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and Palestinian journalists as well as Israelis on an almost daily basis.
Abu Jildeh and al-Nabulsi are among several Fatah terrorists killed or apprehended in recent weeks. These terrorists belong to the Palestinian faction that is often described by Westerners as a "moderate" group. The commander of these terrorists is none other than Mahmoud Abbas, who, in addition to his role as Palestinian Authority president, is also chairman of Fatah.
Abbas's terrorists, carrying various types of guns and explosive devices, are roaming the streets of the two cities and openly declaring their support for terrorism.
The terrorists are mostly associated with Fatah's armed group, Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Another Fatah-affiliated group that recently emerged on the streets of Nablus calls itself the Lion's Den.
The Fatah terrorists have carried out several attacks against both Palestinians and Israelis over the past few months. Many of the terrorists are also known to cooperate with the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Islamist terror groups.
The Aqsa Martyrs Brigades even boasted of the terrorist attacks in a statement. The group also vowed to continue the terror attacks.
Abbas and the Fatah leadership continue to glorify the terrorists. Abbas, in addition, has refused to rein in or disarm the terrorists.
So far as Abbas and other Palestinian leaders are concerned, Palestinian lawyers, journalists and activists who seek freedom, as well as Jews. should just lie back and accept the daily terrorist attacks against them. Abbas cries "terrorism" only if Israel kills or captures a terrorist.
This is the same Abbas who will appear at the UN General Assembly soon to again play the role of victim and accuse Israel of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing." Since he came to power in 2005, Abbas has made it a habit to lie to the UN and other international parties.
Meanwhile, Abbas knows full well that his incitement against Israel has been so effective, that if he ever did make peace with Israel, his own people would execute him for being a traitor.
Abbas, of course, will not mention the Fatah terrorists during his upcoming speech at the UN. He will also not talk about the rampant corruption in his government and the failure of the Palestinian security forces to carry out their duty to enforce law and order and prevent terrorism.
The UN member states should prepare themselves for another Abbas list of lies and libels, assigning blame to everyone but himself for the ongoing bloodshed. It would be helpful if one of the member states' representatives interrupted Abbas's litany to inquire about the role of his loyalists in terrorism and how it is that he continues to praise terrorists while claiming that the Palestinians supposedly seek peace.
When Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly in New York later this month, he will not tell his audience that members of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where they are carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and journalists, as well as Israelis, on an almost daily basis. Pictured: Abbas delivers a speech at the UN on September 27, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)
As Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas prepares to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York later this month, there are increased signs that his loyalists are engaged in terrorist attacks against Israel.
As he has done in the past, Abbas will undoubtedly again use the UN podium to affirm his keenness for making peace with Israel and his opposition to terrorism and violence. Needless to say, he is also expected to exploit the international platform to spew more incitement, lies and blood libels against Israel and Jews.One thing is for sure. Abbas will not tell his audience at the UN that members of his ruling Fatah faction are running wild in the West Bank, where they are carrying out terrorist attacks against Palestinian activists and Palestinian journalists as well as Israelis on an almost daily basis. These terrorists, who are loyal to Abbas, are operating in the northern West Bank, specifically the Palestinian cities of Jenin and Nablus.
Abbas's terrorists, carrying various types of guns and explosive devices, are roaming the streets of the two cities and openly declaring their support for terrorism.
The terrorists are mostly associated with Fatah's armed group, Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Another Fatah-affiliated group that recently emerged on the streets of Nablus calls itself the Lion's Den.
The Fatah terrorists have carried out several attacks against both Palestinians and Israelis over the past few months. Many of the terrorists are also known to cooperate with the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Islamist terror groups.
The Fatah terrorists recently carried out a number of shooting attacks against Jewish worshippers visiting Joseph's Tomb in Nablus.
The Aqsa Martyrs Brigades even boasted of the terrorist attacks in a statement. The group also vowed to continue the terror attacks.
Last month, the Israeli army managed to kill Ibrahim al-Nabulsi, one of the leaders of the Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in Nablus who was wanted for carrying out a series of shooting attacks.
After the killing, the Fatah leadership held a conference under the name of the slain terrorist in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinians. This was a gesture on the part of Abbas and his aides to honor the dead terrorist. Abbas even phoned the parents of al-Nabulsi and two other Fatah terrorists to offer his condolences and praise the terrorists as "martyrs."
Last week, Israel police officers arrested a Palestinian terrorist in the city of Jaffa, near Tel Aviv. The terrorist, who was on his way to carry out an attack, belonged to the Fatah-affiliated Lion's Den terror group. The police found a submachine gun and pipe bombs in the possession of the terrorist.
More recently, the Palestinians announced that Hamad Abu Jildeh, a 24-year-old man from Jenin, died of wounds he sustained during an armed clash with Israeli soldiers a few days earlier. The Palestinians revealed that Abu Jildeh was one of the commanders of Abbas's Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. A video that surfaced on social media platforms featured Abu Jildeh while he was shooting at Israeli troops in the Jenin Refugee Camp. During his funeral, Fatah members called on Palestinians to carry out more attacks.
Abu Jildeh and al-Nabulsi are among several Fatah terrorists killed or apprehended in recent weeks. These terrorists belong to the Palestinian faction that is often described by Westerners as a "moderate" group. The commander of these terrorists is none other than Mahmoud Abbas, who, in addition to his role as Palestinian Authority president, is also chairman of Fatah.
Abbas and senior Fatah leaders have not uttered a word against the involvement of their loyalists in terrorism.
Abbas and the Fatah leadership continue to glorify the terrorists. Abbas, in addition, has refused to rein in or disarm the terrorists. Instead, Abbas and his spokesmen continue, as usual, to blame Israel for the latest flare-up of violence in the West Bank. They are effectively saying that Israel has no right to defend itself or thwart terrorist attacks that are planned and carried out by terrorists, especially those belonging to Fatah.
As far as Abbas and other Palestinian leaders are concerned, Palestinian lawyers, journalists and activists who seek freedom, as well as Jews. should just lie back and accept the daily terrorist attacks against them. Abbas cries "terrorism" only if Israel kills or captures a terrorist.
This is the same Abbas who will appear at the UN General Assembly soon to again play the role of victim and accuse Israel of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing." Since he came to power in 2005, Abbas has made it a habit to lie to the UN and other international parties.
Following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, Abbas's strategy has been to play the world for fools by propagating the false claim that Israel is responsible for all the miseries of the Palestinians -- a move more politically shrewd than blaming one's own atrocious leadership.
Like Arafat, Abbas will continue to talk about the Palestinians' desire for peace all the while encouraging his Fatah terrorists to continue killing. If Abbas really wanted to rein in the terrorists, he would at least instruct his security forces to move in to confiscate illegal weapons and arrest the terrorists.
Abbas, however, is not going to do that because he himself regards the terrorists as heroes and martyrs. Moreover, he had no incentive to crack down on the terrorists; after all, they do not pose a threat to his regime.
Meanwhile, Abbas knows full well that his incitement against Israel has been so effective, that if he ever did make peace with Israel, his own people would execute him for being a traitor.
Abbas, of course, will not mention the Fatah terrorists during his upcoming speech at the UN. He will also not talk about the rampant corruption in his government and the failure of the Palestinian Authority security forces to carry out their duty to enforce law and order and prevent terrorism.
The UN member states should prepare themselves for another Abbas list of lies and libels, assigning blame to everyone but himself for the ongoing bloodshed. It would be helpful if one of the member states' representatives interrupted Abbas's litany to inquire about the role of his loyalists in terrorism and how it is that he continues to praise terrorists while claiming that the Palestinians supposedly seek peace.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Will King Charles Preserve the Throne?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 15/2022
After Queen Elizabeth’s passing, Britain may never be the same again, for reasons that cannot be attributed exclusively to Buckingham Palace.
Today, a combination of factors threatens the long-standing entity that the United Kingdom has known. Starting with Brexit and the receding influence of the Commonwealth that binds the UK to its old colonies, and not ending with the rising separatist calls, specifically in Scotland.
The monarchy itself is alive and well in Britain. In my opinion, Charles III's ascension to the throne will maintain the monarchy’s popularity. As a crown prince, the King was always in the public eye and remained close to the people. A one-man protest during the King’s coronation and anti-monarchy demonstrations here and there are not news. Such acts of protest have always been there, but they have never succeeded in gaining traction and bringing in sweeping popular or political currents.
Until recently, Britain was the largest empire known to mankind, despite its small size. It dominated the world, from China to California. A quarter of the world's population fell under its rule, thanks to its battleship cannons and fierce sailors. For two centuries, it led the worlds of science and capitalism. Through its expansion, it brought civilization to the farthest corners of the world and became a prosperous state using the resources of its colonies. Its rail network ran for 350,000 kilometers across the world, while the rest of the world had only 30,000 kilometers combined. The British transported soldiers, horses, and supplies on their trains and ships and ruled the world in the nineteenth century, despite having a population of merely 18 million at the time.
Historically, all empires had a colonial past: The Romans, Persians, Arabs, Turks, French, Russians, Dutch, Belgians, Portuguese, and Spaniards were all colonizers, just as the British were. There is a dark side to all empires with slavery, wars, and borders, coming to the fore, and the British were no exception. On the bright side, the British Empire brought along their science, arts, architecture, medicine, new machines, and modern political systems.
Some summarize the history of the British empire to the slave trade and exploitation, but this is a trait shared by all major empires. The English, just like the Arabs and Romans, collected outposts and traded in slaves. The Turks brought along what was known as Janissaries: orphaned children taken as prisoners of war, kidnapped from Europe, and raised to fight in the Sultan's Guard and the Imperial Army. The difference is that Britain allows the discussion and criticism of the sins committed by the empire in its schools and media, while the Arabs, Persians, and Turks only boast about the bright sides of their glorious history.
The old era of empires and the conquest of the world by major armies has ended, making way for cyber armies and multinational corporations. The ugliness of World Wars I and II convinced the West that colonial conflicts threaten the existence of states and the world. Britain's victory in both wars did not prevent its empire’s rapid demise and the rise of the American and Soviet powers.
Britain's past is crystal clear, but its future is uncertain. It may not be as jeweled as it was in the Victorian era, nor will it retain all the legacy of the empire from the reign of Elizabeth II. As it shrinks geographically and loses major markets, the UK’s global position is threatened with relegation to just another former major empire, as happened with Spain.
Britain will increasingly turn to markets in our region and Oceania to compensate for Brexit. As for Charles III, despite having no political functions per se, his ascension to the throne will help the British government market its projects to the world, thanks to the King’s long-standing and far-ranging connections. He has known the royal families of the Middle East for a long time and enjoys friendly ties with them, and many governments still see London as the gateway to influence Washington and as the mediator that’s most cognizant of politics and history.

Biden Calculates Iran and the American Elections
Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/September, 15/2022
We see a new impasse in negotiations about renewing the 2015 agreement that limits Iran’s nuclear program. Members of Congress are pressuring the Biden administration not to make any concessions. Many Democrats and Republicans in Congress want no deal. A group of fifty representatives from the House of Representatives, including 34 from Biden’s Democratic Party, on September 1 sent the President a letter laying out 4 objections to a potential new nuclear agreement with Iran.
First, the representatives complained that the deal would relax limits on Iranian production capabilities in 2025. They also warned that the deal would depend on Russia for implementation and Russia cannot be trusted. Third, they insisted that the International Atomic Energy Agency finish its investigations of the suspicious Iranian activities at the three nuclear sites before any reduction in American sanctions against Iran. Finally, the representatives complained that the deal would relinquish to Iran about 100 billion dollars that it could use to finance terrorist groups. Israel is lobbying intensively in Washington, and Defense Minister Gantz is visiting Washington again this month. It is worth noting that Israel often uses the same four arguments in the representatives’ September 1 letter.
Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Robert Menendez told the press that the Biden administration would submit any new Iran agreement for review to the Congress. There is, of course, an American domestic political angle here with the approach of the November 8 legislative elections. Probably the House of Representatives would reject an Iran agreement because already at least 34 Democratic members oppose it. The Senate with its 100 members becomes the key battleground. Probably all or almost all of the 50 Republican senators would vote to block a new deal with Iran. With about 10 Democratic senators’ votes they might get a majority of the 100 members in the chamber to kill the deal, probably by blocking easing of sanctions. In that case, however, very likely President Biden would veto the final Congressional resolution in order to save the deal his team had negotiated. According to the Constitution, two-thirds of both senators and representatives must vote in favor of overriding the President’s veto (and therefore block the Iran deal).
In the Senate, therefore, this vote to override would need the votes of 50 Republicans and 17 Democratic senators. This is unlikely. There are at least 11 Democrats who support a new deal already. In addition, Biden, the Democratic party leader, would remind the Democratic senators about his tough line on the Iran Revolutionary Guards and the International Atomic Energy Agency investigation and urges unity among the Democratic Party. Biden excels at this kind of legislative pressure. For this reason, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a major opponent of a nuclear agreement with Iran, acknowledged that the Congress probably cannot stop a new deal with Iran.
There is one risk to the Biden administration in this scenario. Far from the Iran issue, the Democratic Party needs to win more senate seats on November 8 in order to control the Senate comfortably and pursue the Democratic Party domestic agenda. The Iran deal itself will not be a big issue for American voters. First, a public opinion survey from the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations in late July showed 59 percent of Americans support renewing the Iran agreement. Second, American voters focus on the economy and social issues. However, senators who vote to support a new Iran deal in late September or October would risk provoking lobby groups who oppose the Iran deal to give financial donations to their opponents in the last weeks of the election campaign. Money sometimes can change the result of a close election, and the Democratic Party faces at least five close senate election races. If Iran were to suddenly accept the American terms in the negotiations, before moving ahead Biden would consult with the leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Charles Schumer (who in the past opposed the Iran nuclear agreement) and other Democratic Party figures about the timing in Congress. On September 5 Lindsey Graham predicted that Biden would take the safer domestic political choice and wait until after the November 8 election before concluding a deal with Iran. Israeli officials similarly predict that Iran won’t make more compromises to Biden and there is no chance of an agreement before the American election. A bigger question is whether after November 8 it will still be possible to reach a deal with Iran or whether, as some in Israel and Washington want, the Biden administration will shift to a stronger military stance to pressure Iran. It is not a coincidence that the Americans bombed militias loyal to Iran in Syria August 24 and on September 4 flew some American B-52 bombers near Iran as clear warnings.
*Robert Ford is a former US ambassador to Syria and Algeria and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute for Near East Policy in Washington

Ukraine May Become More Successful Than Biden Wants
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/September, 15/2022
The gains of Ukraine’s bold offensive are real, spectacular, and the product of a remarkable partnership with Washington. Success, however, can test any relationship, and Ukraine’s battlefield victories could, ironically, stoke new tensions with the US.
Right now, officials in both countries are reveling in a major military breakthrough. The New York Times reports that the Pentagon was deeply involved in planning the offensives in the east and southeast of Ukraine, war-gaming them extensively and steering President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government away from a riskier thrust toward Mariupol.
This achievement represents the culmination, so far, of a relationship that has advanced rapidly since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s all-out assault in February.
Money, information and arms provided by the US and other Western countries has bolstered Ukrainian resistance and helped Kyiv inflict sky-high casualties — perhaps tens of thousands killed in action — on Moscow’s forces. Ukraine has proven that it can use that aid to liberate large swaths of its territory, which should buy it the continued backing of the Western coalition through the cold winter to come.
Lest anyone think Washington is aiding Ukraine solely out of kindness — or that it is squandering Americans’ tax dollars — this has all been a tremendously good bargain for Uncle Sam. Ukraine is the best tool the US has for battering and bogging down the Russian military so it cannot pursue aggression elsewhere and, perhaps, for dealing Putin a defeat from which he will not soon recover.
“We’re paying another country to fight a horrible war on its own soil so that we won’t have to fight a worse one on the soil of a NATO ally,” Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute told me. “It’s rather cold-blooded put that way, don’t you think?”
The US and Ukraine have a classic patron-client relationship. These are always fraught, because the parties have different levels of power and different national interests, even when they share a common enemy. The closer Ukraine gets to winning this war, the more those differences may come into view.
Zelenskiy’s government has been clear about its aims: liberation of all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and other areas seized by Moscow in 2014, plus reparations and prosecution of Russian war criminals. With every mile of territory Ukraine reclaims, its confidence that it can secure these aims grows.
There is great moral justice in these demands, and in an ideal world, Washington would surely support them. But while President Joe Biden’s administration prudently declined to quarrel over Ukraine’s war aims when that country’s survival was very much in doubt, it may yet hesitate to make Kyiv’s goals its own.
Biden’s team might worry that if Ukraine pushes too far and overextends itself, it could end back up in costly stalemate that will consume US resources even as the danger of conflict with China grows. Or perhaps Putin would escalate radically, even using tactical nuclear weapons to avoid the meltdown of his army and the loss of Crimea, which he claims (illegally) as Russian soil.
Wars against seemingly beaten enemies can still get ugly quickly, as America learned when it sought to liberate the entire Korean Peninsula in late 1950 but found itself in a larger, more dangerous fight with China instead. No doubt the Biden administration is mulling carefully which Ukrainian war aims are desirable and which are truly indispensable.
A Ukraine that is politically independent, economically viable and militarily defensible is certainly in the latter category. So is an outcome that leaves Putin so bloodied and bereft of new gains that no reasonable observer can think that aggression has paid.
All this involves pushing Russia back to the lines of Feb. 24, 2022, if not further. But it may not, in Biden’s view, require reclaiming Crimea or putting Putin and his henchmen on trial.
A debate over ending the war isn’t imminent — it will take further offensives to evict Russia from the land it has occupied since February. Zelenskiy may eventually prove willing to trade away certain demands to secure others. Or maybe there will be a Russian military collapse that Putin meekly accepts.
But barring that best-of-all-worlds outcome, the coming months may see some difficult conversations between the US and Ukraine over how much Kyiv should seek in a peace deal with Moscow — and some quiet consideration in Washington of whether to try to restrain Zelenskiy if he pushes for more than Biden thinks wise.
It wouldn’t be the first time a US proxy ended up disappointed. President Dwight Eisenhower ultimately compelled South Korea’s Syngman Rhee to accept a compromise peace and a divided peninsula. In 1990, Washington effectively forced the Nicaraguan contras to take a peace deal that saw them disarmed even as their Sandinista enemies retained control of the Nicaraguan government and military. Today, Ukraine is fighting the free world’s war against Moscow. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will get all that it deserves.
*Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. His latest book is "American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump."

World must send Iran a strong message at UN General Assembly
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/September 15/2022
Iran’s ultraconservative President Ebrahim Raisi is due to speak at the 77th session of the UN General Assembly next week in spite of the US sanctions against him, which were imposed in 2019.
The Iranian regime will most likely attempt to use the platform to advance false narratives, such as blaming other countries for conflicts in the region, depicting itself as the frontrunner in the fight against terrorism in the region, demonizing its rivals, and claiming that its nuclear program is solely designed for peaceful purposes. Raisi will also likely demand that all sanctions against the Islamic Republic be lifted. There is a lot of controversy concerning the Iranian president’s attendance in New York, which will be his first visit to the UN as president. The Iranian hard-liner was reportedly involved in the 1988 massacre of political prisoners and there have been calls by human rights organizations such as Amnesty International to investigate alleged crimes committed while he was a member of the so-called death committee. That is among the reasons why eight US senators, including Sens. Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Joni Ernst and Ted Cruz, have urged US President Joe Biden to deny Raisi entry to the country. “Raisi’s involvement in mass murder and the Iranian regime’s campaign to assassinate US officials on American soil make allowing Raisi and his henchmen to enter our country an inexcusable threat to national security,” a letter signed by the senators stated.
The tone that the US sets at the UNGA is critical to the Iranian leaders’ political calculations. Although the US has taken a softer position toward the Tehran government due to the prospects of a new nuclear deal, the White House ought to focus on its destabilizing behavior in the region and the need for the Islamic Republic to alter its regional policies. The US should send a message to the Iranian regime that a nuclear deal does not give it the green light to act as it wishes in the region, particularly in Arab nations such as Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. The international community can use the UNGA platform to draw attention to the devastating effects Tehran’s continuing support for militia and terror groups has on the Middle East. It can be argued that the theocratic establishment is one of the core reasons for the ongoing conflict in Yemen, due to the weapons assistance it provides to the Houthis. Security forces in Yemen last month busted a cell affiliated with the Houthi militia group for smuggling weapons from Iran. This is yet another violation of international law and UN Security Council resolutions by the Iranian regime when it comes to the Yemen conflict.
The US ought to focus on the regime’s destabilizing behavior in the region and the need for it to alter its policies.
Yemeni Information Minister Moammar Al-Iryani stated that confessions made by members of the cell “confirm that Tehran continues to supply the (Houthi) militia with weapons.” They also confirmed the Iranian regime’s role in “undermining the truce’s efforts and (show) that Iran uses the Houthi militia to kill Yemenis, destabilize Yemen and spread chaos and terrorism in the region.” The Iranian leaders have also been trying to pressure world powers into putting an end to the current investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding Tehran’s clandestine nuclear activities, which include possible military dimensions. At the UNGA, the US and the international community should make it clear that such a demand will not be accepted. Instead, the Iranian regime should be urged to cooperate with the IAEA’s probe.
To be more specific, the Iranian leaders must come clean about their nuclear activities and respond to the alarming questions raised by the UN’s nuclear watchdog. Rafael Grossi, the director general of the IAEA, last month said: “So far, Iran has not given us the technically credible explanations we need to explain the origin of many traces of uranium, the presence of equipment at places. This idea that politically we are going to stop doing our job is unacceptable for us.” Grossi also emphasized to the IAEA board that, without the Iranian government’s cooperation, the “agency cannot confirm the correctness and completeness of Iran’s declarations under its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement.”In other words, the US should not just concentrate on the Iranian regime’s nuclear program at the UNGA — it also ought to address Tehran’s destabilizing behavior in the region and its support for terror and militia groups.
The international community, particularly the US and European powers, has the opportunity to send a strong message to the Iranian regime at the UNGA that Tehran’s nuclear threat and clandestine activities, along with its destabilizing regional behavior and support for terrorism, will not be tolerated. Otherwise, if the Iranian leaders believe they can act with impunity, they will be more emboldened and empowered to pursue their military adventurism.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh