English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 14/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.september14.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into
the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears
much fruit
John 12/20-28: “Among those who went up to worship at the festival were some
Greeks. They came to Philip, who was from Bethsaida in Galilee, and said to him,
‘Sir, we wish to see Jesus. ’Philip went and told Andrew; then Andrew and Philip
went and told Jesus. Jesus answered them, ‘The hour has come for the Son of Man
to be glorified. Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the
earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much
fruit. Those who love their life lose it, and those who hate their life in this
world will keep it for eternal life. Whoever serves me must follow me, and where
I am, there will my servant be also. Whoever serves me, the Father will honour.
‘Now my soul is troubled. And what should I say “Father, save me from this
hour”? No, it is for this reason that I have come to this hour. Father, glorify
your name.’ Then a voice came from heaven, ‘I have glorified it, and I will
glorify it again.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 13-14/2022
Elias Bejjani’s Video & Text Political Commentary: Aoun Prime Minister
(1988) and Aoun President (2016): Both Products of Geagea’s Personal Greedy
Agenda and Lack of Political Vision/September 13 2002
Gantz says keen on deal with Lebanon, warns against 'Hezbollah escalation'
Aoun: I'll leave the palace only if it's a normal day
Aoun urges new govt. or adding 6 'political' ministers to caretaker cabinet
President Aoun receives economic authorities’ plan for financial and economic
recovery
President Aoun signs two decrees to cover transportation costs for the military
and aid to the Lebanese University, discusses developments of...
Berri welcomes Papal Ambassador, discusses latest developments with Bou Habib
MoPH: 244 new coronavirus infections, one death
Bassil meets with “Forces of Change” MPs, sees eye-to-eye on need to elect
president with strictly Lebanese decision
Berri to call for presidential vote session before Oct. 31
Lebanon: Rahi Rejects Obstruction of the Constitution, Disabling the Nation
Mikati urges against continued 'obstacles' in way of govt. formation
Lebanon Humanitarian Fund allocates $8 million to address urgent needs
6 Syrians who likely sailed from Lebanon die in bid to reach Italy
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 13-14/2022
Washington: Revival of Iran Nuclear
Deal ‘Unlikely’ for Now
Gantz: Iran Using Syria Facilities for Weapons Production
Information Gap on Iran's Nuclear Activities is Getting Bigger, IAEA Warns
IAEA Has Four Options to Exert Pressure on Iran
US leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat advances
Pope Francis arrives in Kazakhstan
Russia’s Lavrov granted a visa to attend UN General Assembly
Mobilization in Russia is not on the agenda — Kremlin spokesman
Russia tells Armenia and Azerbaijan: cease hostilities
Ukraine piles pressure on retreating Russian troops
Ukraine military claims downing Iran drone used by Russia
Al-Sisi heads to Qatar on 1st visit as rift healed
Ukraine counter-offensive continues, as Russian retreat has Moscow's morale on
the ropes
Nearly 50 Armenian soldiers killed in fierce clashes with Azerbaijan
Iran urges restraint after 49 Armenians killed in clashes with Azerbaijan
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on September 13-14/2022
New Iran Deal Would Fuel Hezbollah’s Precision-Guided Munitions/FDD/Flash
Brief/September 13/2022
PGMs: Iran’s Precision-Guided Munitions Project in the Shadow of a Nuclear
Deal/Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz/FDD/September 13/2022
Anti-Israel boycotts masquerade as social justice/David May/The Jerusalem
Post/September 13/2022
The Palestinians and the World Do Not Need Another Corrupt, Failed Terrorist
Arab State/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/September 13/2022
Gorbachev’s Legacy Lives on/Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Former Egyptian Ambassador and
Senior UN official/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 13/2022
Iran and Al-Qaeda Again... What is Our Responsibility?/Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat/September
13/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 13-14/2022
Elias Bejjani’s Video & Text Political Commentary: Aoun Prime Minister
(1988) and Aoun President (2016): Both Products of Geagea’s Personal Greedy
Agenda and Lack of Political Vision
September 13 2002
Click Here To Watch the Arabic Video, and read the Arabic Version Of The Below
Piece
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/111898/elias-bejjanis-video-text-political-commentary-aoun-prime-minister-1988-and-aoun-president-2016-both-products-of-geageas-personal-greedy-agenda-and-lack-of-political-vision/
From the outset, there is no real difference between Dr. Samir
Geagea on one hand, and President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, Jobran Bassil,
on the other. All three leaders hail from one and the same narcissistic mold,
entirely devoid of a national political vision, and their sole interest is lust
for power and nothing else. Which is why their political journey has been one of
failure with its assortments of catastrophes that have tormented the country for
as long as anyone can remember.
Perhaps the single difference between them is that Aoun and his son-in-law have
shed all pretenses by blindly subordinating themselves as servile dhimmis to
Hezbollah, going so far as to declare their pride openly and shamelessly in
doing so. Geagea for his part conceals himself under a cloak of virtuous
chastity, all the while trying to outbid the other two in bootlicking Hezbollah
under the “Riachi” table in his quest for power, as was apparent in his recent
interview with Fadi Abu-Daya on Al-Jadid.
For how can Geagea be against Hezbollah, he who expressed shame in remembering
the South Lebanon Army, and who doesn’t have the return of our heroic refugees
in Israel as his priority? His shills in his corporate party of the Lebanese
Forces, Inc. publicly say that the martyrs of both sides (theirs and
Hezbollah’s) are of the same clay, that the Persian party is made of authentic
Lebanese fabric that they – Geagea’s Lebanese Forces – are trying to bring back
inside the Lebanese house, that Hezbollah has liberated the south, and that
their goal is to resolve the conflict with it by dialogue. More dangerous than
all of this is that they legitimize Hezbollah’s occupation and hegemony and its
Iranian project for Lebanon, by claiming that it is possible to achieve change
and liberation and the recovery of decision-making via constitutional
mechanisms, including elections and such, while Hezbollah has hijacked the
state, the constitution, the institutions, and the authority, and is the
ultimate decision-maker.
Let us tease their selective memory by going back to 1988, when Geagea
obstructed the presidential election to prevent Sleiman Frangiyeh Sr. from
acceding to the presidency, thus allowing Aoun to become the Prime Minister of
the military government. In 2016, Geagea cloned the same obstructionist and
short-sighted scenario by pushing Aoun’s candidacy, backing him, and praising
his glorious achievements. He then co-signed with Aoun the Me’raab Memorandum in
which they divvied up the booty between themselves, again with the goal of
preventing the accession of Sleiman Frangiyeh Jr. to the presidency.
Who knows what Geagea is scheming today to block one more time the election of
Sleiman Frangiyeh Jr. to the presidency? Based on his record of recklessness,
lack of vision and treasonous behavior, he might as well back the election of
Jobran Bassil as president!!!
In sum, and with good conscience, we believe that the leadership of our Maronite
parties, namely Geagea, Frangiyeh, Aoun, Bassil, Gemayel Sr. and Jr. are abject
failures. They have not achieved anything positive to their community, and
because of them and their egotism, Lebanon has fallen to occupation,
disintegration, and alienation. They all have turned a blind eye to the
international resolutions on Lebanon and have indeed become hostile to them, for
the simple motive of appeasing Hezbollah.
One of the most preposterous and childish justifications for Geagea’s backing of
Aoun’s candidacy to the presidency in 2016 was – according to Geagea’s
mouthpieces and close associates – to deal a blow to Aoun’s popular aura and
bring his downfall by exposing him. What a mind-blowing strategy!
But what is the solution?
First, we need to rid ourselves of those intellectually-challenged and
treasonous leaders. We need leaders with a deep sense of duty and moral
responsibility, proponents of sovereignty, who are simply Lebanese patriots.
Leaders who request the international community to place Lebanon under Chapter
VII of the UN Charter and declare it a failed state, and assign its governance
entirely to the hands of the United Nations. Otherwise, Lebanon is condemned to
remain a hopeless case.
Let us remember that Lebanon is a sacred shrine whose protection and defense
fall to the Maronites. Since Maronite leaders have skirted their
responsibilities in this patriotic sacred mission, Lebanon has collapsed and
won’t rise from its limbo without the advent of honorable, pious, patriotic
Maronite guardians who will defend and protect it.
Gantz says keen on deal with Lebanon, warns against 'Hezbollah escalation'
Naharnet/September 13/2022
Israel is keen to make a deal with Lebanon regarding the maritime border,
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said in a meeting with U.N. diplomats in
New York on Tuesday. “The State of Israel is interested in progressing maritime
border negotiations with Lebanon,” Gantz said. “In the end, there will be two
gas rigs, one Israeli and one Lebanese. The question is whether we can reach
this scenario without an unnecessary escalation as a result of Hezbollah
threats,” he added, according to English-language remarks published by Israel’s
Jerusalem Post. “Establishing a rig on the Lebanese side is in the interest of
Lebanon, whose residents do not have a regular electricity supply and are
experiencing a devastating economic crisis,” he said, explaining that Israel
will also capitalize on its resources. Gantz warned that Israel would not
tolerate any threat by Hezbollah to its security and called on the U.N. Security
Council to condemn “any violation of Israeli sovereignty” by the group. “We must
advance the negotiations, strengthen the stability and prosperity in the region
and prevent an escalation that will first of all harm the citizens of Lebanon
and the Lebanese state, and bring us back to the start," the Israeli minister
added.
Aoun: I'll leave the palace only if it's a normal
day
Naharnet/September 13/2022
President Michel Aoun has again hinted that he might not leave the presidential
palace on October 31 should no new government be formed and should no new
president be elected. “The caretaker government cannot assume the president’s
powers. This does not only violate the constitution, but also subjects us to a
real national crisis that can turn flammable,” Aoun said, in an interview with
al-Akhbar newspaper published Tuesday. “I hold onto my point of view and I
insist on the presence of a government enjoying the fill constitutional
characteristics. I also encourage the PM-designate to agree on it so that it can
shoulder the burden of what’s waiting for it,” the president added. He
accordingly warned that “the continuation of the government in its current
capacity would mean that we are before a conspiracy.” “I’m afraid that some
might be preparing for the last day of my term… a conspiracy that resembles a
coup against the system, state, presidency and constitution,” Aoun added. “I’m
also afraid that the objective might be to change the system,” he cautioned.
Asked about his reaction in the event of such a scenario, Aoun said: “I won’t
say what I would do. My known decision is to leave the presidency at the end of
the tenure, but beware. The threads of the conspiracy have started from now… and
I also have concerns over security.”“I have repeatedly said that I will leave
the Baabda Palace on the last day. I add now that I will only leave the palace
if it is a normal day on which no one has evil intentions. If I sense the
presence of a conspiracy, I will not stand idly by,” the president warned.
Aoun urges new govt. or adding 6 'political'
ministers to caretaker cabinet
Naharnet/September 13/2022
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday stressed “the need to exert every effort to
form a new government.”He added, in a meeting with a delegation from the
Economic Committees, that the alternative would be to “bolster the current
government with six new state ministers who would be politicians.”“This was
proposed by the PM-designate in the beginning, in light of the absence of
politicians in the current government, but then the stance changed,” Aoun
lamented. He also hoped that “the achievement of the demarcation of the southern
maritime border and the extraction of gas from Lebanon’s territorial waters
would take Lebanon into a phase of promising hope.”
President Aoun receives economic authorities’ plan for
financial and economic recovery
NNA/September 13/2022
President of the Republic, General Michel, affirmed his support for efforts and
logical solutions to address the current economic crisis, expressing his hope
that the completion of the demarcation of the southern maritime borders and the
extraction of gas from the territorial waters will move the country to a stage
of promising hope for the future. The President
stressed the need to make every effort to form a new government or to strengthen
the existing government with six new state ministers from among the politicians,
“Which was proposed by the Prime Minister-designate at the beginning, then the
situation changed”.
President Aoun also stressed the need for the system to be productive and not
allow negligence and inefficiency to address the existing imbalance at all
levels.
The President’s words came while receiving a delegation of Lebanese economic
bodies headed by former Minister Mohamed Choucair.
Choucair handed President Aoun the financial and economic recovery plan
developed by the bodies, which includes ways to return depositors’ money in
stages, in order to return the country to the path of recovery again.
At the beginning of the meeting, former Minister Choucair spoke, thanking
President Aoun for receiving the delegation, pointing out that the economic
authorities had decided to prepare a plan for financial and economic recovery
that includes ways to return deposits of depositors. Choucair expressed his
readiness to discuss it with an economic team chosen by the President of the
Republic, saying: “We are not the first country to stumble, but we are the first
and only country that did not witness an attempt to address the stumbling, in
light of the existing political differences that greatly affected various
economic aspects in addition to national institutions and investments in it”.
Choucair then revealed that the plan was prepared by a 13-person working group
that included heads of key sectors and economic and legal experts.
Then the member of the delegation, head of the National Council of Lebanese
Economists, Mr. Salah Oseiran, explained the aspects of the plan, pointing to
the attempt of the team that prepared it to be realistic in its view of the
banking situation in Lebanon, and to give hope to depositors to recover their
money in stages, after agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Oseiran
stressed the need for a minimum level of political consensus to proceed with it.
Oseiran also pointed out that the plan takes into account the various
responsibilities and attempts to obtain a fair contribution from the various
stakeholders, noting that according to the plan, the state will exit the
restructuring process with a debt-to-gross ratio of about 50%, which will allow
it to return in the future to the multilateral international financing markets,
to stimulate its economy, the expected contribution from the state in its
framework depends largely on the success of asset management companies and on
bonds that do not have a maturity date so as not to burden them.
In response to a question by President Aoun, Mr. Oseiran revealed that under the
plan, citizens are not entitled to own shares in state companies because they do
not have a right to own them, revealing that this point is still under
discussion among those concerned, especially in light of the refusal of the
International Monetary Fund to use state property to return funds to depositors.
“As for the banks, after recapitalizing them, part of the deposits can be
transferred to shares or the large depositor can hold bonds in them” Oseiran
said.
Likewise, the Secretary-General of the Economic Bodies, the head of the Beirut
Traders Association, Nicolas Shammas, explained some points related to the plan.
President Aoun:
For his part, the President welcomed the delegation, stressing that he supports
every scientific and logical measure that addresses the current crisis,
expressing his hope that the completion of the demarcation of the southern
maritime borders and the extraction of gas from regional waters will move
Lebanon to a stage of promising hope for the future.
In addition, President Aoun stressed the need to make every effort to form a new
government, or to strengthen the existing government with six new state
ministers from among the politicians, “Which was initially proposed by the Prime
Minister-designate, given the absence of politicians in the existing government,
then the situation changed”.
Then a dialogue took place between President Aoun and the audience, where he was
asked about the response to the banking secrecy amendments law. The President
explained that he had responded to the law and made notes on it that he found
appropriate to add.
Regarding the failure to take into account the 2022 budget any economic
development plan and the need to give the various sectors the necessary
incentives to protect the economy, President Aoun recalled the misleading
attempts that some had practiced not to reveal the real reality of the lira, and
to evade the criminal financial audit, stressing that in our demand for this
audit we wanted to search for the truth.
In response to another question, President Aoun referred to the negative
repercussions of the rentier economy on the economic reality of the country,
pointing out that he had sought since the beginning of his term to move to a
productive economy and had been met with government sterility, which was also
met with the reforms and decisions of the CEDRE conference, in addition to
addressing the budget deficit and other issues and matters. The President
stressed the need for the system to be productive and not allow negligence and
inefficiency in any case.
The delegation included former Minister Choucair, Messrs. Oseiran and Shammas,
Messrs. Tawfiq Dabboussi, President of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and
Agriculture in Tripoli and the North, Nabil Fahd, Vice President of the Chamber
of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, and Gabi
Tamer, Vice President of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture in
Beirut and Mount Lebanon, Mounir El-Tini, Vice President of the Chamber of
Commerce and Industry in Zahle and the Bekaa, Pierre Ashkar, President of the
Federation of Tourist Syndicates, Wajih El-Bizri, President of the International
Chamber of Commerce-Lebanon, Jacques Sarraf, President of the Lebanese Investors
Union, Nicolas Boukhatir, President of the Association of Lebanese Businessmen
and Women, Elie Nisnas, President of the Association of Insurance Companies. In
Lebanon, Alphonse Deeb is the secretary of the economic authorities, and Hisham
El-Makmal, the tax advisor to the Lebanese economic authorities.
Statement:
After the meeting, Minister Choucair and Shammas made the following statement:
“The economic authorities were honored to meet His Excellency, and presented him
with a financial recovery plan that shows how to return the money to the
depositors.
We found that it is our duty to take the initiative, because citizens ask daily
when to recover their money, and how much will be returned, and over how many
years?
We have drawn up a realistic, executable plan, far from slogans and populists,
because the country is no longer able to listen to more of them. This plan was
studied in the presence of more than 13 personalities of experts and economists,
in addition to legal men, to see if the numbers presented is feasible and
achievable. We hope His Excellency the President will support this plan, and we
hope that within two weeks everyone will put populism aside so that we can
salvage what can be salvaged in this country.
After that, Mr. Shammas said:
“The economic authorities are willing to participate in the national economic
recovery, so their achievements and suggestions have accumulated with the
previous government’s plan. For this purpose, we have set two goals in mind:
protecting depositors’ money, and launching economic growth in the country.
Among the principles, including: respect for private property and the hierarchy
of responsibilities, because there is more than one responsible team in the
country. We proceeded from the number of dollar deposits currently in banks, and
if we deduct from them the amount of loans to the private sector, the total
volume remains at about 84 billion dollars which is what must be resolved.
The solution proposed by the administrative bodies is divided into 5 parts: the
first part is about $12 billion, which is the interest surplus that was paid
between 2015 and 2020 as a result of financial engineering, which must be closed
at the price of 1500 dollars. The second part is about 16 billion Dollars, are
money that was transferred after October 17, 2019 from the Lebanese Lira to the
Dollar at the rate of 1500 and it is not permissible to return as fresh, because
we are eating from the deposits of the original depositors. These funds will
return at the end of the seventh year at the exchange rate of 8000 Lebanese
pounds to the dollar.
As for the third measure, it is similar to Circular 158 and its size is 19
billion dollars, according to which three quarters of their money in dollars and
under deposits will be refunded, three quarters of their money in dollars and a
quarter in Lebanese Liras based on the market price. Banks will bear this
measure, by about a third, and the Banque du Liban is in two-thirds.
The fourth measure remains, and it falls exclusively on the banks, and its cost
is about 7 billion dollars, 4 billion of which will be fresh, which will be
returned over a period of 5 years, and 3 billion dollars will be returned to
depositors in the form of bonds issued by the bank or shares in it. The most
prominent part of the plan is the state’s contribution to returning part of the
funds to depositors, and the size of this part is 30 billion dollars. The state
will establish a holding company: “Holding”, in which the ownership of about 15
public institutions in various sectors from electricity to water and
communications to companies will be preserved.
We clearly say that the state’s money will remain with it, but the management of
these companies will be with the private sector. When these companies produce
revenues higher than international levels, these funds go to feed the fund to
pay depositors’ money. And every depositor has a bond and a debt bond that
entitles him, over a period of 10 to 12 years, to recover his money in full. The
main advantage of this measure is that it is not an additional debt on the
state, nor does it constitute additional burdens. The big negotiating point with
the IMF will be on this subject. And if these things went well, and the
political and economic conditions were favorable, the Lebanese depositor could
recover 74% of his money”.
Questions & Answers:
Minister Choucair was asked about the absence of a representative of the
Association of Banks among the members of the delegation, and he replied: “Dr.
Sfeir has a commitment, and we learned yesterday of our appointment with His
Excellency the President. But the Association of Banks kept pace with this plan,
and approved it. If we single out our opinion, and the IMF did not agree with
it, or we set a vision and the banks cannot bear it, it is as if we had not done
anything. We have held the banks responsible, but we have to preserve our
banking sector. No economy, nor Lebanon, nor a country, nor companies, nor a
private sector will remain without a strong banking sector”. Choucair was asked
about the response they receive after presenting the plan, where he replied: “As
I said, there is support for the plan, because it does not contain slogans or
populism. We want to find a solution. As economic bodies, we are responsible for
the private sector and the country’s economy. We see that if we reach some kind
of political agreement can get us out of the crisis. We are not the first
country to suffer an economic collapse, but we are the first country to collapse
in 3 years, and we have not yet done anything. This is the crime against the
depositor and the Lebanese people”.—Presidency Press Office
President Aoun signs two decrees to cover
transportation costs for the military and aid to the Lebanese University,
discusses developments of...
NNA/September 13/2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Deputy Speaker of
Parliament, Elias Bou Saab, and discussed with him the latest developments
related to the on-going negotiations to demarcate the southern maritime borders,
in light of the move taken by the American mediator, Amos Hochstein. Deputy
Speaker Bou Saab revealed that contacts are continuing with the mediator
Hochstein to follow up on the deliberations that took place with him during his
visit last week to Beirut, and the meetings he held with the state’s chiefs of
staff.
Justice Minister:
The President met Justice Minister, Henry Khoury, and addressed with him the
latest developments resulting from the freezing of the investigation into the
Beirut port bombing crime and its repercussions, and the proposals put forward
to move this file.
The meeting also touched on issues related to the status of judges.
Statement:
After the meeting, Minister Khoury made the following statement:
“I was honored by the visit of His Excellency the President, and presented him
with a picture of the judicial situation. I repeat what I mentioned during these
two days, with regard to the legality of each decision taken.
I am waiting for the position of the Supreme Judicial Council, which is mainly
concerned with the steps that we have taken. There are many matters that are
still being dealt with, especially the decree of formations, which was
reconfirmed by the Supreme Judicial Council, and I will do my part in this
regard, and I will give it its legal path. A judge assigned to the port
explosion file”.
Questions & Answers:
Asked whether he was new on the issue of forming the cassation commission,
Minister Khoury replied “The decree related to it has reconfirmed and the
Supreme Judicial Council confirmed its previous position on it, as it was
reported to me. There are procedures that are taking place to give this decree
its correct legal course”. Asked if there is any
reassurance for the families of the victims and detainees, the Justice Minister
replied “I always reassure them that all my concern is to move this file, and I
have expressed more than one idea for this end, and he did not respond to me
most of the time. I am still makingall efforts to move this file. The file,
including the suggestions it submitted to the Judicial Council, being the main
actor in the issue of the port file”.
About the existence of a proposal for the families of the victims, which is
contrasted by another proposal for the families of the detainees, and how can he
reassure both parties, Minister Khoury said“I have already said, and I will
repeat that when the delegation of the families of the victims came to my
office, they showed me a copy of Decree 13434, which dates back to 2004, which
includes the owners of rooms in the Court of Cassation.The families of the
detainees also came to me, and showed me a copy of the decree itself, and the
two parties asked me to try to abide by this decree. I immediately submitted it
to the Judicial Council to take the necessary action. I did not support one
party over the other party at all. Always, it is an attempt to open a loophole
from anywhere, to put the file on its proper and correct path. The suggestions
that I made have been unanimously responded to by the Judicial Council recently,
and we are in the process of naming a judicial investigator to carry out his
temporary and limited duties”.
In response to a question about the position of the Patriarch, the sponsor
supporting his position, Minister Khoury replied: “I thanked His Beatitude the
Patriarch for his position on Sunday, and I reiterate my thanks to him. His
Beatitude understood the issue as it should, and made sure that the work is
based solely on serving the detainees and the families of the victims alike. I
repeat my request to the judges that they expedite the decision on the requests
for response submitted and requests for transfer as well, and I hope that the
partial formations of the heads of the chambers of the Court of Cassation will
be completed quickly so that the lawsuits against the judges are decided”.
The Justice Minister was asked: Is Judge Al-Bitar still in his position,
and he replied: “It is known. Judge Al-Bitar is staying, and I mentioned that
yesterday, as the head of the Judicial Council also stated. Rather, we are
trying to breach some wall in order to put this file on the right track, and it
has been frozen for exactly a year, i.e. last September.
Question: Is the process of moving it considered a mistake? How do you interpret
this process as wrong?
Answer: “I do not know, frankly. And I do not support one team over the other.
Absolutely, and the ideas that the families of the victims have, I am ready to
receive them, and if their ideas are applicable, I am ready to follow them, with
regard to the powers of the Minister of Justice, because there are other powers
related to the Supreme Judicial Council, which is the basis”.
Signing Two Decrees to Cover Transportation and Social Assistance Expenses:
In addition, President Aoun signed Decree No. 10063 of September 12, 2022, which
stipulates the transfer of 761 billion Lebanese Liras to cover the expenses of
the monthly lump-sum transportation compensation, the value of which is one
million and 200 thousand pounds, which is added to the daily transfer
compensation due to the Army, Internal Security forces, General Security, State
Security, and the Customs Police. and Parliament Police, as of February 3, 2022.
Likewise, President Aoun signed Decree No. 10066 of September 12, 2022, to
transfer an amount of 128 billion and 471,532,000 Lebanese Liras to secure
additional funds to cover temporary social assistance for workers at the
Lebanese University in all their job titles for six months starting from
1/7/2022. -- Presidency Press office
Berri welcomes Papal Ambassador, discusses latest
developments with Bou Habib
NNA/September 13/2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Tuesday welcomed at his Ain al-Tineh residence,
Papal Ambassador to Lebanon, Archbishop Joseph Spiteri, who bid him farewell
marking the end of his diplomatic mission in Lebanon. The meeting had been an
occasion to discuss the country’s general situation and latest developments.
Berri also received Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Abdullah Bou
Habib, with whom he discussed the latest political developments. It is to note
that Bou Habib made no statement on emerging.
MoPH: 244 new coronavirus infections, one death
NNA/September 13/2022
Lebanon has recorded 244 new coronavirus cases and one death in the last 24
hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Tuesday.
Bassil meets with “Forces of Change” MPs, sees
eye-to-eye on need to elect president with strictly Lebanese decision
NNA/September 13/2022
"Free Patriotic Movement" leader, MP Gebran Bassil, on Tuesday welcomed a
delegation representing the “Forces of Change” MPs with whom he discussed the
paramount importance of electing a Lebanese president with a strictly Lebanese
decision. The meeting also stressed the need to avoid any scenario that might
lead to presidential vacuum.
Berri to call for presidential vote session before Oct. 31
Naharnet/September 13/2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will call for a presidential vote session before
the end of President Michel Aoun’s term on October 31, MP Ali Hassan Khalil
announced on Tuesday. “Several sessions might be held,” Khalil added, following
a meeting between Berri’s Development and Liberation bloc and a delegation from
the Change bloc. “With high positivity, we welcomed their program for
presidential elections, and as usual we are keen on hearing their viewpoint with
all due concentration and attention,” Khalil went on to say. The Change bloc
delegation has been visiting the various parliamentary blocs for the past two
days to explain the bloc’s recently-launched presidential initiative.
Lebanon: Rahi Rejects Obstruction of the
Constitution, Disabling the Nation
Asharq Al-Awsat/September 13/2022
Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al Rahi criticized Monday the efforts of
some political parties to obstruct the implementation of Lebanon’s constitution,
the formation of its government, and the crucial upcoming presidential
elections. “We can not thrive in atmospheres of hatred, accusations, and abuse,
at the level of political parties and blocs, as is unfortunately happening
today. An atmosphere like this poisons the life of citizens,” said Rahi during
his Sunday mass sermon. He added that Lebanon’s “tragedy” is the fact that many
(political parties) do not admit their mistakes or regret them, “so we live in a
sin structure. This reality amounted to the disruption of constitutional life
and (the state) institutions.” The Patriarch rejected all kinds of “malicious”
endeavors paralyzing the crisis-hit country, stressing the need to form a new
government and prevent a vacuum at the top state post when the term of President
Michel Aoun ends on October 31. “We are not silent, but we reject paralyzing the
nation, we are not silent but we reject obstructions to the constitution, we are
not silent but we reject obstructions to the formation of the government, we are
not silent but we reject obstruction to the election of a new President,” he
stated, without naming any party in particular. Prime Minister-designate Najib
Mikati was tasked to form a new cabinet on June 23, but his efforts have failed
so far. On the investigations into the Beirut port explosion and the move to
name an alternate judge, replacing Judge Tarek Bitar, Rahi said: “It is
unfortunate that the Lebanese have reached a state of mistrust and
politicization, which is what’s happening today between the families of victims
of the Beirut port bombing and caretaker Justice Minister Henri Khoury,” al-Rahi
said in his Sunday Mass sermon.
“The investigative judge in the case, Tarek Bitar, is staying in his post and by
law is in charge of the investigation file, but his hands are tied due to the
finance minister’s refusal to sign the decree of judicial appointments,” added
Rahi.
Mikati urges against continued 'obstacles' in way of
govt. formation
Naharnet/September 13/2022
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati on Tuesday stressed that he will “continue
all the efforts aimed at forming the new government.”“All those concerned must
meanwhile support these efforts and refrain from continuing to put conditions
and obstacles in a blatant attempt to achieve political gains whose timing is
inappropriate and which cannot be accepted,” Mikati added. “Let us all cooperate
to resolve the governmental file in a manner that contributes to establishing
further political stability and avoiding futile and useless debates, especially
that the constitution is clear in all files and there is no room for
misinterpreting the texts,” the PM-designate went on to say.
Lebanon Humanitarian Fund allocates $8 million to address urgent needs
Naharnet/September 13/2022
As pressure continues to mount on affected people in Lebanon and vulnerabilities
continue to deepen day after day, the Humanitarian Coordinator a.i, Edouard
Beigbeder, announced that the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund (LHF) has allocated US$8
million to meet urgent needs and enhance preparedness ahead of the
fast-approaching winter, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) in Lebanon said. "Vulnerable families in Lebanon are affected by
insufficient access to water, unaffordable prices of basic commodities, limited
access to life-saving services, thus taking desperate measures to survive, and
we need to act now and avoid a further deterioration of the humanitarian
situation," stated the Humanitarian Coordinator a.i. This LHF allocation will
provide urgent and critical life-saving assistance to all population groups,
ensure the minimum continuity of water services, support the return to school,
and protect those most in need, including during winter. Seventeen sectoral and
multisectoral projects in the Education, Child protection, Shelter and Water,
Sanitation and Hygiene (WaSH) sectors will be prioritized, in areas with the
highest severity of needs. More than half of the funding will target Lebanese
people and the remaining will be destined in favor of migrants, Palestine
refugees and Syrian refugees. In line with the LHF’s vision statement to boost
the localization agenda in Lebanon, 29 percent of this allocation funding is
disbursed to local and national non-governmental organizations (NGOs). OCHA-managed
pooled funds have allocated $32 million thus far this year. “I am extremely
grateful to the donors’ support and trust in the LHF as a critical funding
instrument for a flexible, effective and coordinated response in a Whole of
Lebanon approach,” declared Beigbeder. The Lebanon Humanitarian fund (LHF) is a
country-based pooled fund led by the Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon and
managed by OCHA. Since its inception in 2014, the LHF has received over US$ 146
million from donors to support the delivery of timely and effective humanitarian
assistance to the most vulnerable people in Lebanon regardless of their status.
Strong monitoring systems are in place to ensure that assistance reaches the
most vulnerable based on needs.
6 Syrians who likely sailed from Lebanon die in bid
to reach Italy
Agence France Presse/September 13/2022
Six Syrians including two infants have died of thirst and hunger as they
attempted to cross the Mediterranean Sea in a makeshift boat that likely sailed
from Lebanon. More than thirty people attempted the crossing on the vessel, with
many of the survivors in an "extremely serious" state of health according to
U.N. refugee agency UNHCR. "Six Syrian refugees including children, women and
teenagers lost their lives at sea. They died of thirst, hunger and severe
burns," Chiara Cardoletti, UNHCR official in Italy, wrote on her Twitter
account. "This is unacceptable. Strengthening rescue at sea is the only way to
prevent these tragedies," she added. The victims included two children aged one
and two years old, a 12-year-old child and three more adults, including a
grandmother and mother also travelling with children who survived the journey,
according to a UNHCR statement. The 26 survivors were being treated in Pozzallo,
Sicily. Alarm Phone, a group running a hotline for migrants needing rescue, said
some 250 migrants were in need of rescue off the coast of Malta. The boat left
Lebanon around a week ago, it said, and had now run out of fuel. "Food &
drinking water finished 2 days ago. The caller said his 3-month old daughter has
died from thirst," the group posted on Twitter. Several hundred migrants have
been rescued in the past few days in the Mediterranean by humanitarian groups.
German NGO SeaWatch said on Monday it had 428 people on board a ship, waiting
for a port to be assigned. "The civil fleet has rescued hundreds of people in
the past days, who otherwise would have been pulled back to Libya or even
drowned," it said on Twitter. According to the European border and coast guard
agency Frontex, the central Mediterranean route was used by more than 42,500
migrants from January to July -- an increase of 44 percent compared to the first
seven months of 2021. UNHCR says 1,200 people have lost their lives in the
Mediterranean since the beginning of the year.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 13-14/2022
Washington: Revival of Iran Nuclear Deal ‘Unlikely’ for Now
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 13 September, 2022
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Iran's response to a
European Union proposal on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal makes the prospects
for an agreement in the near term unlikely. "I can't give you a timeline except
to say, again, that Iran seems either unwilling or unable to do what is
necessary to reach an agreement."On Ukraine war, the US senior official said it
was still early days in Ukraine's counteroffensive against the Russian military,
but Ukrainian forces have made "significant progress." "What they have done is
very methodically planned out and of course it's benefited from significant
support from the United States and many other countries in terms of making sure
that Ukraine has in its hands the equipment it needs to prosecute this
counteroffensive," Blinken added during his news conference in Mexico City.
Gantz: Iran Using Syria Facilities for Weapons
Production
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 13 September, 2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said on Monday that Iran has used more than
10 military facilities in Syria to produce advanced missiles and weapons for its
proxies. For several years, Israel has been mounting attacks on what it has
described as Iranian-linked targets in Syria. Speaking at a conference in New
York, Gantz presented a map of what he said were military sites of the Centre
D'Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques (CERS), a Syrian government agency,
involved in manufacturing missiles and weapons for Iran. "Iran transformed CERS
into production facilities for mid and long-range, precise missiles and weapons,
provided to Hezbollah and Iranian proxies. In other words, it became yet another
Iranian front – a factory for advanced, strategic weapons," Reuters quoted Gantz
as saying. Strikes attributed to Israel have recently intensified on Syrian
airports to disrupt Tehran's increasing use of aerial supply lines to deliver
arms to allies in Syria and Lebanon, including Hezbollah, regional diplomatic
and intelligence sources have told Reuters. Israeli strikes have repeatedly
targeted the Masyaf area, a zone in the western Hama district where Gantz said
an underground weapons production facility threatens Israel and the region. "Masyaf,
specifically, is used to produce advanced missiles," he said. Gantz added that
Iran was also working on building missile and weapons industries in Lebanon and
Yemen. "If this trend will not be stopped, within a decade, there will be
advanced Iranian industries across the region, producing weapons and spreading
terror," he said.
Information Gap on Iran's Nuclear Activities is Getting Bigger, IAEA Warns
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 13 September,
2022
The information gap in monitoring Iranian nuclear activities is getting bigger,
warned Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael
Grossi. Speaking at a press conference on the sidelines of the quarterly meeting
of the Agency's Board of Governors, Grossi said the Agency's verification and
monitoring of Iran's nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA had been
seriously affected by Iran's decision to stop the implementation of those
commitments, including its obligations under the Additional Protocol. He called
upon Iran to be more transparent after stopping the surveillance cameras. Last
June, Tehran shut down 27 IAEA cameras in its nuclear facilities, in addition to
the cameras that have not handed over their recordings to the Agency since
February last year. "The Agency would need to apply additional safeguards
measures, and Iran would need to provide comprehensive and accurate records to
the Agency. We would also need to determine the comprehensiveness and accuracy
of data recorded by our surveillance equipment between 21 February 2021 and 8
June 2022," he said. Grossi admitted that considerable challenges would remain
to confirm the consistency with the situation before Feb 21, 2021, of Iran's
declared inventory of centrifuges and heavy water. In his report to the IAEA
Board of Governors, Grossi called on Iran to provide technically credible
explanations for uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at three undeclared
locations in Iran and informed the Agency of the current locations of the
nuclear material and the contaminated equipment.
In the press conference, Grossi expressed his hope for Iran to cooperate
promptly, adding: "the Agency remains ready to re-engage with Iran without delay
to resolve these matters." Grossi warned that the Agency would not be able to
confirm the correctness and completeness of Iran's declarations under its
Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement. "Because it has not yet done so, the Agency
is not in a position to provide assurance that Iran's nuclear program is
exclusively peaceful."Earlier, Iran announced it is ready to cooperate with the
IAEA to eliminate any "misconceptions" about its activities after the Agency
warned that it could no longer "guarantee" the peacefulness of Tehran's nuclear
program. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani criticized the joint
statement of Britain, France, and Germany, expressing "serious doubts" about
Iran's seriousness in the nuclear deal negotiations. Kanaani called the
statement "unconstructive" and "in breach of goodwill," noting that both the US
and Europe must prove they do not prioritize the interests of the Zionist regime
when making political decisions. "Iran announces its constructive cooperation
with the Agency as its obligations," adding that "while Iran has obligations, it
also has rights," AFP quoted Kanaani as saying. The spokesman referred to the
IAEA's meeting, saying no draft resolution against Iran was presented, warning
that any non-constructive step, such as the one taken in June, will have
repercussions.
"Naturally, Iran expects constructive actions from IAEA and the members of its
governing board."After 16 months of indirect talks between Tehran and
Washington, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Aug 8 that
the bloc had laid down a final offer to overcome an impasse for the revival of
the agreement. Earlier this month, Iran sent its latest response to the EU's
proposed text. On Friday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Iran's
latest response to the nuclear deal proposal is a step "backward."Blinken told
reporters that what "we've seen over the last week or so in Iran's response to
the proposal put forward by the European Union is a step backward and makes
prospects for an agreement in the near-term, I would say, unlikely," Kanaani
said that his country is "waiting for an official response from the US" and
denied making any new demands in the last response to the European draft. Kanani
threw the ball into the US court, saying Washington must prove that it is a
trusted member, adding that it must play a constructive role to reach an
agreement and demonstrate its commitment to international norms.
IAEA Has Four Options to Exert Pressure on Iran
Paris - Michel Abou Najem/Asharq Al Awsat/Tuesday,
13 September, 2022
European sources in Paris said that the fate of the negotiations to revive the
2015 Iranian nuclear agreement would largely depend on the outcome of the
meeting of the IAEA Council of Governors in Vienna this week. The three
undeclared Iranian nuclear sites, in which IAEA inspectors found traces of
enriched uranium, remain the subject of debate, despite the fact that four years
have passed since the issue was made public. Since then, the IAEA reports have
emphasized that Iran did not give satisfactory answers, nor did it disclose the
necessary information that would enable the agency to close the matter. While
the IAEA accuses Tehran of not respecting its obligations under the
Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement pertaining to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Iran blames the international agency for
“politicizing” the issue and for being “biased” to Israel. Moreover, Tehran
insists on closing the issue, and makes it a condition to accept a return to the
nuclear agreement. Three points are worth observing: First, reviving the 2015
agreement will not take place imminently. This was confirmed by German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said on Monday, in a press conference with Israeli
Prime Minister Yair Lapid: “There is now actually no reason for Iran not to
agree to these [European] proposals. But we have to note that this is not the
case, and will not happen certainly in the near future.”Second, the Israeli
campaign continues at various levels, and has succeeded in convincing the US
administration to delay returning to the 2015 agreement until after the
legislative elections in Israel and the midterms in the United States. Third,
Tehran anticipated the agency’s meeting in Vienna by trying to defuse the
escalation with Europe. In recent remarks, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman
Nasser Kanani said that Tehran was ready to cooperate with the IAEA. There is no
doubt that the IAEA governors, when making their decisions, will look at their
consequences and the Iranian responses to them. According to the sources in
Paris, four main options are available to agency officials: First, the 35
governors can refrain from issuing any statement or taking any measure or action
against Tehran, in order to give it an additional 3 month-opportunity to show
the extent of the sincerity of its promises, and to avoid escalation or
reactions that would increase the obstacles facing the IAEA inspectors.
The second option could be an exact repetition of their statement in June, in
which they denounced Iran’s failure to cooperate with the agency. However, the
governors can go further with a third option, by pairing their statement with a
deadline to Iran, as a warning of transferring the matter to the UN Security
Council, in accordance with the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement. Finally, the
governors may seek to end Iran’s manipulation, by deciding, in the course of
this week, to transfer the matter to the Council Security. This will allow the
activation of the “snapback” mechanism that will enable the re-imposition of
international sanctions on Iran, which were lifted at the beginning of 2016.
Iran’s responses to each of the four options can range from denouncing the
agency’s decision, depriving it of access to some sites, or closing additional
surveillance cameras, up to partially or completely severing relations with the
IAEA.
Iran can also respond by increasing its enrichment rates, “even to 90 percent”,
deploying more advanced centrifuges and raising the amounts of enriched uranium.
US leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat
advances
Associated Press/September 13/2022
U.S. leaders from President Joe Biden on down are being careful not to declare a
premature victory after a Ukrainian offensive forced Russian troops into a messy
retreat in the north. Instead, military officials are looking toward the fights
yet to come and laying out plans to provide Ukraine more weapons and expand
training, while warily awaiting Russia's response to the sudden, stunning
battlefield losses. Although there was widespread celebration of Ukraine's gains
over the weekend, U.S. officials know Russian President Vladimir Putin still has
troops and resources to tap, and his forces still control large swaths of the
east and south. "I agree there should be no spiking of the ball because Russia
still has cards it can play," said Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force
general who was NATO's top commander from 2013 to 2016. "Ukraine is now clearly
making durable changes in its east and north and I believe that if the West
properly equips Ukraine, they'll be able to hold on to their gains." Lawmakers
particularly pointed to the precision weapons and rocket systems that the U.S.
and Western nations have provided to Ukraine as key to the dramatic shift in
momentum, including the precision-guided High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System,
or HIMARS, and the High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile, or HARM, which is designed
to target and destroy radar-equipped air defense systems. "They're there,
they're in theater, and they're making the difference," Sen. Chris Coons, a
Delaware Democrat and member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In the
hands of highly motivated Ukrainian fighters who are making the most of weapons
ranging from off-the-shelf drones and abandoned Russian arms to advanced weapons
from the West, the HIMARS are enabling Ukrainians "to turn the tide,
dramatically," Coons said.
Meanwhile, a senior defense official said the U.S. is looking at future needs,
including discussions about providing more intensive combat training for larger
Ukraine units, a change from current training focused on smaller teams learning
to handle specific weapons. It is also considering sending additional air
defense systems, as well as lethal strike drones and more surveillance drones.
The official was one of two who briefed reporters Monday on condition of
anonymity to discuss planning details. Ukraine's launch in recent days of a
much-anticipated counteroffensive — in a different part of the country from
where Russian troops occupying Ukraine had massed strength to meet it — has
brought on the biggest territorial changes in months in the 200-day war,
launched when Putin rolled Russian forces into the neighboring country,
targeting its Western-oriented government.
The U.S. officials acknowledged that the U.S. provided information to help the
Ukrainian counteroffensive, but declined to say how much or if Western officials
helped strategize the idea to throw Russian forces off guard by calling
attention to attack plans in the south, while actually plotting a more
formidable campaign in the east. The U.S provided information "on conditions" in
the country, said one of the officials, but "in the end, this was the Ukrainian
choice. The Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian political leadership made the
decisions on how to conduct this counteroffensive."
Ukrainian forces claimed Monday to have retaken a wide band of territory and
more than 20 Ukrainian settlements from Russia, pushing all the way back to the
two countries' northeastern border. Russian soldiers were surrendering in such
numbers that Ukraine was having difficulty making room for them, Ukrainian
military officials said.Ukrainians have pounded 400 targets in all with the
HIMARS since the U.S. began supplying them, using them "with devastating
effect," Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told
reporters late last week as Ukraine's counteroffensive was getting underway.
The truck-mounted, GPS-guided systems fire faster, farther and more precisely
than the Soviet-designed rocket launchers otherwise used by both Russia and
Ukraine. They can hit targets up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away. Ukrainian
forces have used the 16 HIMARS and several similar systems to strike supply
lines, ammunition depots and other key Russian targets.
The Ukrainians "believe that this has happened because of the new technology
equipment and weapons that we've sent them. They ... said well, if you would
have sent them six months ago," said Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat. "We
didn't have them six months ago, but you know, we had to build the weaponry, and
train their people on it, takes time."Still, Ukrainian leaders are still
pressing for more — including fighter jets and the longer-range Army Tactical
Missile System, or ATACMS, a surface-to-surface missile that the U.S. has so far
declined to send.
A key question going forward will be how much more Congress and the American
public are willing to spend on the war in Ukraine, which the U.S. and the West
say also represents a significant threat to Europe.
It's unclear if, or how, Ukraine fighters' successes in recent day will affect
the ongoing debate. The White House has asked Congress to greenlight an
additional $11.7 billion in aid as part of an overall government funding measure
that lawmakers must approve before the end of the month. "I haven't seen any
lack of appetite so far" for continuing funding for Ukraine, said Sen. Roy
Blunt, R-Mo. "I think to see the ability to take the help that they've been
given and then be clearly successful in some of their efforts is an
encouragement to want to do more of that." The U.S. — the lead contributor to
Ukraine's war effort among NATO members — has poured more than $15 billion in
weapons and other military support into Ukraine since January. Biden
acknowledged the battlefield gains for Ukraine over the weekend but refused to
say more. "I'm not going to speak to that now because things are in process," he
told reporters. Breedlove noted that despite the recent battle losses, Putin
still has "a lot of tanks and a lot of trucks and a lot of people that he can
still throw at this problem. They're just not his best tanks, his best trucks or
his best people."
But he warned that winter may bring the most daunting challenge. Putin's moves
to shut down fuel supplies to Europe, which is expected to increase prices, are
likely aimed at turning public opinion across the region.
"Even though Mr. Putin's military has taken a beating on the military front, his
big card, yet probably to play is how well does Europe hold together through a
winter that Mr. Putin is going to make completely miserable for the European
people," Breedlove said. "I think Mr. Putin is desperately trying to hang on to
winter because his big hope now is to separate the European people from their
European political leadership."
Pope Francis arrives in Kazakhstan
NNA/September 13/2022
Pope Francis arrived in Kazakhstan on Tuesday at the start of a three-day trip
to attend a peace meeting of world religious leaders. The plane carrying the
85-year-old pope landed in the capital of the Central Asian republic after a
six-hour flight from Rome.—Reuters
Russia’s Lavrov granted a visa to attend UN General Assembly
NNA/September 13/2022
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and members of a Russian delegation have
been granted visas to attend the United Nations’ General Assembly, a Russian
news agency reported, citing the foreign ministry. Russia has for weeks
criticized the United States for not granting members of the Russian delegation
visas to attend the 77th session of the assembly, which opens in New York today.
“Today, visas were given to Lavrov and a number of those who will accompany
him,” Interfax quoted the foreign ministry as saying.
Moscow has accused the United States of trying to block Russia’s full
participation in the general assembly by delaying the granting of visas for
Russians to attend. The forum’s high-level sessions get underway next week. The
Kremlin on Tuesday said the United States was “violating its obligations” by not
issuing visas to Russia’s full delegation and said it was taking steps to hold
both the UN and the US to account over the situation. -- Reuters
Mobilization in Russia is not on the agenda — Kremlin
spokesman
NNA/September 13/2022
Mobilization in Russia is not on the current agenda, Russian presidential
spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the media. "At this moment - no, it is not on the
agenda," Peskov said, when asked if the authorities were considering full or
partial mobilization. Earlier, the media carried
reports State Duma member Mikhail Sheremet had said Russia should declare
mobilization for achieving the goals of the special operation in Ukraine.--TASS
Russia tells Armenia and Azerbaijan: cease hostilities
NNA/September 13/2022
Russia called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to cease hostilities and observe a
ceasefire agreement on Tuesday, expressing "extreme concern" over renewed
fighting between the two countries. In a statement, Russia's foreign ministry
said it had brokered a ceasefire at 0900 Moscow time (0600 GMT) this morning and
it expected both sides to fulfill the terms of the agreement. "We express our
extreme concern over the sharp aggravation of the situation in areas of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border," the foreign ministry said.
"We call on the sides to refrain from further escalation of the
situation, exercise restrain and strictly observe the ceasefire." Armenia's
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier on Tuesday in a speech to parliament
that the intensity of fighting had reduced, but was still active in some areas.
Azerbaijani media said the ceasefire broke down within 15 minutes.
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region of the South Caucasus, is internationally
recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but the local ethnic Armenian residents reject
Baku's sovereignty over the region. It has been the source of fierce tensions
between the two countries for decades. In its statement, Russia said the dispute
should be resolved "exclusively through political and diplomatic means." Both
sides blamed each other for the flare-up in hostilities overnight, which
Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said left 49 Armenian soldiers dead.
Moscow, an ally of Yerevan through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)
military alliance, but which also retains close friendly relations with Baku,
did not say who it saw as responsible for the latest escalation. ----Reuters
Ukraine piles pressure on retreating Russian troops
Associated Press/September 13/2022
Ukrainian troops piled pressure on retreating Russian forces on Tuesday,
pressing a counteroffensive that has produced major gains and a stunning blow to
Moscow's military prestige. It was not yet clear if the Ukrainian blitz in the
northeast after months of little discernible movement could signal a turning
point in the nearly seven-month war. But the country's officials were buoyant,
releasing footage showing their forces burning Russian flags and inspecting
abandoned charred tanks. In one video, border guards tore down a poster that
read, "We are one people with Russia." Momentum has switched back and forth
before, and Ukraine's American allies, for one, were careful not to declare a
premature victory since Russian President Vladimir Putin still has troops and
resources to tap. Still, the Kremlin struggled to respond to the defeat, its
largest since its forces abandoned a botched attempt to capture Kyiv early in
the war.
Late Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his troops have retaken more
than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) — an area more than twice the
size of Luxembourg — in a matter of weeks. "The movement of our troops
continues," he said.
Among the latest claims, Ukraine's border guard services said the army took
control of Vovchansk — a town just 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Russia seized on
the first day of the war. While every individual claim of military success could
not be verified, Russia acknowledged that it has withdrawn troops from areas in
the northeastern region of Kharkiv in recent days. Reports of chaos abounded as
Russian troops pulled out — as well as claims that they were surrendering en
masse. Ukraine officials have said they have captured so many soldiers that they
are struggling to house them. The claim could not be immediately verified.
Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said Kyiv is trying to
persuade even more Russian soldiers to give up, launching shells filled with
flyers ahead of their advance. "Russians use you as cannon fodder. Your life
doesn't mean anything for them. You don't need this war. Surrender to Armed
Forces of Ukraine," the flyers read. In one indication of the blow sustained by
Moscow, British intelligence said that one premier force, the 1st Guards Tank
Army, had been "severely degraded" during the invasion and that "Russia's
conventional force designed to counter NATO is severely weakened. It will likely
take years for Russia to rebuild this capability."
The retreat didn't stop Russia from pounding Ukrainian positions, however. Early
Tuesday, it shelled the city of Lozova in the Kharkiv region, killing three
people and injuring nine, said regional governor Oleh Syniehubov. And Ukrainian
officials said Russia kept up shelling around Europe's largest nuclear facility,
where fighting has raised fears of a nuclear disaster. The Nikopol area, which
is across the Dnieper River from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, was
shelled six times during the night but no injuries were immediately reported,
said regional governor Valentyn Reznichenko.
Strikes have also continued unabated on the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine's
second-largest and one that has been hammered by artillery for months.
Zelenskyy specifically criticized Russia for targeting energy infrastructure in
its attacks over the past days. "Hundreds and thousands of Ukrainians found
themselves in the dark — without electricity. Houses, hospitals, schools,
communal infrastructure … sites that have absolutely nothing to do with the
infrastructure of the armed forces of our country." He said it could only point
to one thing. "This is a sign of the desperation of those who contrived this
war. This is how they react to the defeat of Russian forces in the Kharkiv
region. They can't do anything to our heroes on the battlefield."
The counteroffensive has provoked rare public criticism of Putin's war.
Meanwhile, some of its defenders in Russia played down the idea that the success
belonged to Ukraine, blaming instead Western weapons and fighters for the
losses.
"It's not Ukraine that attacked Izium, but NATO," read a headline in the
state-supported Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, referring to one of the areas
where Russia said it has withdrawn troops. Elsewhere, residents of a Russian
village just across the border from Ukraine were evacuated after shelling by
Ukrainian troops killed one person, according to Russia's Tass news agency. The
report cited the head of the local administration in Logachevka, who said
Ukrainian troops opened fire at a border checkpoint.
Ukraine military claims downing Iran drone used by Russia
Agence France Presse/September 13/2022
Ukraine's military claimed Tuesday for the first time that it encountered an
Iranian-supplied suicide drone used by Russia on the battlefield, showing the
deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran as the Islamic Republic's tattered
nuclear deal with world powers hangs in the balance. U.S. intelligence publicly
warned back in July that Tehran planned to send hundreds of the bomb-carrying
drones to Russia to aid its war on Ukraine. While Iran initially denied it, the
head of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has boasted in recent days about
arming the world's top powers. The Ukrainian military's Strategic Communications
Directorate published images of the wreckage of the drone. It resembled a
triangle, or delta-shaped, drone flown by Iran known as the Shahed, or "Witness"
in Farsi. The military official and the website both said Ukrainian troops
encountered the drone near Kupiansk amid Kyiv's offensive that has punched
through Russian lines around Kharkiv on the eastern front. The image suggested
the Shahed drone had been shot down by Ukrainian forces and hadn't detonated on
impact as designed, though little other information was immediately released by
Kyiv. An inscription on the drone identified it as an "M214 Gran-2," which
didn't immediately correspond to known Russian weaponry. Iran's mission to the
United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran has
multiple version of the Shahed, which have overflown a U.S. aircraft carrier in
the Persian Gulf, been used by Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen, attacked oil
depots in Saudi Arabia and allegedly killed two sailors aboard an oil tanker off
Oman in 2021. The triangle-shaped Shahed is believed to have a range of around
2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), though Iran has offered few details. Experts
refer to such bomb-carrying drones as "loitering munitions." The drone flies to
a destination, likely programmed before its flight, and either explodes in the
air over the target or on impact against it. Iran has drawn closer to Russia as
it faces crushing sanctions over the collapse of the nuclear deal in 2018 after
then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the accord. Negotiations
over the deal, which saw Iran limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for
sanctions being lifted, again appear deadlocked. Ukraine and Iran also have
tense relations, stemming from Iran's Revolutionary Guard shooting down a
Ukrainian passenger jet in 2020, killing all 176 people on board.
Al-Sisi heads to Qatar on 1st visit as rift healed
Associated Press/September 13/2022
Egypt's president traveled on Tuesday to Qatar on his first visit to the
gas-rich nation amid warming ties after years of frayed relations following the
Egyptian military's overthrow of an Islamist president backed by Doha. The
two-day trip comes amid a rapid rapprochement between Egypt and Qatar after the
end in 2021 of a yearslong boycott of Doha by four Arab states, including Egypt.
Qatar's state-run news agency said Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was
to hold talks with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. In June, Sheikh Tamim
visited Cairo, where he was welcomed at the airport by al-Sisi, in a sign of
warming ties. The two countries' relations deteriorated in 2013, when al-Sisi,
as defense minister, led the military's overthrow of Egypt's Islamist President
Mohamed Morsi following a short-lived and divisive rule. Morsi, who hailed from
the Muslim Brotherhood, was backed by Qatar. In 2017, Egypt joined Saudi Arabia,
the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in a boycott of Qatar, seeking to force
Doha to change its policies. The rift finally ended in 2021, when Qatar signed a
declaration with the four to normalize relations. Since then, ties have
improved, and top officials have exchanged visits.
Ukraine counter-offensive continues, as Russian retreat
has Moscow's morale on the ropes
David Coffey with RFI/September 13, 2022
Ukrainian troops are exerting intense pressure on retreating Russian forces as a
counter-offensive that has produced major territorial gains for Kyiv continues,
to the detriment of Moscow's morale and military prestige. It remains unclear if
Kyiv's offensive in the country's northeast might signal a turning point in the
nearly seven-month war. Ukrainian officials remain buoyant, releasing footage
showing their forces burning Russian flags and inspecting abandoned tanks. In
one video, border guards tore down a poster proclaiming, “We are one people with
Russia.”Momentum has switched back and forth in the conflict, and Ukraine's
American allies, for among those being careful not to declare a premature
victory since Russian President Vladimir Putin still has troops and resources to
tap. Still, the Kremlin is struggling to respond to the latest round of defeats
– the largest since its forces abandoned a botched attempt to capture Kyiv early
in the war. Ukrainian army claims to have recaptured positions from Russian
invaders. Macron asks Putin to withdraw weapons from Ukraine nuclear plant
Three factors to Kyiv's success
However, speaking to RFI from Odesa, journalist Johnny O'Reilly underlines that
there are three main factors that have been key to the recent success of
Ukraine's counter-offensive. "The first is the sharing of intelligence by the
CIA," O'Reilly reports, "which was upgraded in June, thereafter giving the
Ukrainian side almost real time analysis of military formations and movements
behind enemy lines. "The second element is the availability of precision
artillery – namely the HIMAR system – which is used to target ammunition dumps,
operations centres, battle headquarters ... HIMARs were used for the first time
in the heat of battle to target congregations of tanks and military warfare," he
explains. But the third element is "the low morale of the Russian troops, the
lack of command oversight and the resulting low morale from the targeting of
logistics centres by the HIMARs."
'To the gates of Moscow'?
Late Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his troops have retaken more
than 6,000 square kilometres – an area more than twice the size of Luxembourg –
in a matter of weeks. ”The movement of our troops continues,” he said. Speaking
on Tuesday, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar claimed that Unkrainian forces
are making good progress, adding that "the aim is to liberate the Kharkiv region
and beyond - all the territories occupied by the Russian Federation.” This
robust rhetoric resonates with President Volodomyr Zelensky’s recent declaration
that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will not end at Russia’s border but at the
gates of Moscow. With the recent gains made by Ukrainian troops, are they
committed to bring the fight into Russian territory? Journalist O'Reilly doesn't
think so. "The Ukrainian army is [now] very integrated into NATO structures.
They have not been given permission to use the American-supplied HIMAR systems
to launch artillery into Russian territory. "I don't think the Americans or NATO
partners will permit or sanction any kind of invasion of Russian territory. The
big question is what will happen with Crimea," O'Reilly underlines. Crimea
remains a very pro-Russian enclave since well before its annexation by Moscow in
2014. "How realistic it is to retake Crimea and retain it over time ... I
suspect it's near impossible," O'Reilly explains, "and the international
partners of Ukraine will not go along with it." However, in the southern region
of Kherzon, gains have also been made by Ukraine's forces amid reports of chaos
as Russian troops pull out – as well as claims that they were surrendering en
masse. Ukrainian officials claim they have captured so many soldiers that they
are struggling to house them. O'Reilly says that Ukraine's Southern Command has
confirmed that negotiations are underway for some groups to surrender – "how
many groups or how many people there has yet to be confirmed," he reports. "The
scale of the surrender is not very clear yet. But the key point is that if one
particular group is discussing a surrender, which is pretty much confirmed at
this point, it means that they have run out of ammunition," says the journalist.
"This is all a result of the HIMARs targeting ammunition dumps in the weeks
building up to this counter offensive."
Endgame within reach?
Earlier this Tuesday, the French ambassador to Kyiv, Etienne de Poncins said on
France Info that “a victory for Ukraine is possible.” So after more than 200
days of war do Ukrainians feel the endgame might actually be within sight,
following the recent push against the Russian occupation? O'Reilly tells RFI
that, "Ukrainians do believe the end game is ripe and it's happening now. Very
few people did not believe that victory was possible. And that's partly because
people were willing to die for this cause. "No matter how much sacrifice was
required, Ukrainians were willing to continue fighting until they [got] victory
... their morale has always been sky-high because their purpose is clear. They
are fighting for their own country. The alternative, the concept of the Russian
Mir – the Russian world – was very clear to them when the atrocities were
revealed in Bucha and other places. "For them, it's always been very clear that
they will fight to the death and that the Russians do not have the same
motivation. Yes, people feel that this could be a turning point," O'Reilly
concludes.
*Johnny O'Reilly is a former Moscow-based film maker and journalist who
currently works in Ukraine.
Nearly 50 Armenian soldiers killed in fierce clashes
with Azerbaijan
Agence France Presse/September 13/2022
Azerbaijan said Tuesday its military succeeded in preventing attacks by Armenian
troops in the wake of the worst fighting between the arch-foes since their brief
but brutal war in 2020. Armenia announced that nearly 50 of its soldiers had
been killed in the fighting overnight, which Russia said it had halted by
brokering a ceasefire between the historic rivals. "Provocations committed by
Armenian forces on the border have been prevented and all necessary objectives
were fulfilled," President Ilham Aliyev's office said in a statement after his
meeting with the military leadership. Armenia appealed to world leaders for help
after the fighting broke out, accusing Azerbaijan of trying to advance on its
territory. United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday called the
leaders of both protagonists, with his spokesman saying Washington would "push
for an immediate halt to fighting and a peace settlement" between the neighbors.
The fighting was the worst since the end of a 2020 war between the ex-Soviet
republics over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region that left more than 6,500
killed on both sides. It came with Yerevan's closest ally Moscow -- which
deployed thousands of peacekeepers in the region after the war -- distracted by
its six-month invasion of Ukraine. Russia said it had brought the clashes to a
halt, with the foreign ministry saying a ceasefire was agreed from 9:00 am
Moscow time (0600 GMT).Armenia's defense ministry said later that clashes had
subsided but that the situation on the border "remains extremely tense."After
fighting broke out, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called French President
Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Blinken to demand "an
adequate reaction" to "Azerbaijan's aggressive acts."Later, addressing
lawmakers, he said at least 49 Armenian soldiers had been killed in the
flare-up.
- 'Subversive acts' -
Azerbaijan said it had also suffered casualties but did not specify the number
killed. The defense ministry in Yerevan said the clashes started early Tuesday,
with Armenian territory coming under fire from artillery, mortars and drones in
the direction of the cities of Goris, Sotk, and Jermuk. "The enemy is trying to
advance" into Armenian territory, it said in a statement. Azerbaijan, however,
accused Armenia of "large-scale subversive acts" near the districts of Dashkesan,
Kelbajar and Lachin and said its armed forces were taking "limited and targeted
steps, neutralizing Armenian firing positions". Baku's long-standing political
and military sponsor Turkey blamed Armenia and urged it instead to "focus on
peace negotiations". Iran, which shares a border with both countries, urged
"restraint" and a "peaceful resolution" to the fighting. The European Union,
France and the United States have expressed concerns over the escalation and
called for an end to the fighting. Before the ceasefire was announced, Armenia's
security council asked for military help from Moscow, which is obligated under a
treaty to defend Armenia in the event of foreign invasion.
'Russia in bad shape' -
Armenian political analyst Tatul Hakobyan said the escalation in fighting was a
consequence of the "deadlock" in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks. "Azerbaijan
wants to force Armenia to recognize Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan," he told AFP.
"The war in Ukraine has changed the balance of forces in the region and Russia
–- which is a guarantor of peace in the region –- is in a very bad shape. In
this situation, Azerbaijan wants to get concessions from Armenia as soon as
possible," he added. Last week, Armenia accused Azerbaijan of killing one of its
soldiers in a border shootout. In August, Azerbaijan said it had lost a soldier
and the Karabakh army said two of its troops had been killed and more than a
dozen wounded. The neighbors fought two wars -- in the 1990s and in 2020 -- over
the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated enclave. The six
weeks of brutal fighting in the autumn of 2020 ended with a Russian-brokered
ceasefire. Under the deal, Armenia ceded swathes of territory it had controlled
for decades and Moscow deployed about 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to oversee the
fragile truce. During EU-mediated talks in Brussels in May and April,
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Pashinyan agreed to "advance discussions"
on a future peace treaty. Ethnic Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh broke
away from Azerbaijan when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. The ensuing
conflict claimed around 30,000 lives.
Iran urges restraint after 49 Armenians killed in clashes
with Azerbaijan
Agence France Presse/September 13/2022
Iran appealed for restraint from neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan Tuesday
after the deadliest flare-up in fighting between the Caucasus foes since a
six-week war ended nearly two years ago. Iran "calls for restraint and the
peaceful resolution of disputes between the two countries, and expresses its
concern over the escalation of tensions," foreign ministry spokesman Nasser
Kanani said in a statement. Armenia said Tuesday that at least 49 of its troops
were killed in clashes with Azerbaijan and appealed to world leaders for help,
saying that Azerbaijani forces were trying to advance onto its territory.
Azerbaijan's defense ministry said the clashes took the lives of some of its
troops, without giving the number. It said its forces were responding to
Armenian provocation. The neighbors fought two wars -- in the 1990s and in 2020
-- over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated enclave of Azerbaijan. Six weeks
of fighting in the autumn of 2020 claimed more than 6,500 lives and ended with a
Russian-brokered ceasefire. Under the deal, Armenia ceded swathes of territory
it had controlled since the 1990s and Moscow deployed about 2,000 Russian
peacekeepers to oversee the fragile truce. Iran borders both Armenia and
Azerbaijan, including areas that were fought over in 2020. It reported two
casualties from stray fire across the frontier during the conflict.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
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on September 13-14/2022
New Iran Deal Would Fuel Hezbollah’s
Precision-Guided Munitions
FDD/Flash Brief/September 13/2022
Iran would receive up to $275 billion in sanctions relief during the first year
of a new nuclear deal and more than $1 trillion by 2030, according to an FDD
assessment. Some of this money would likely fund Tehran’s proliferation of
precision-guided munitions (PGM) for the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah.
These weapons are precise and lethal, and they would provoke a war between
Israel and Lebanon if their proliferation continues.
Expert Analysis
“The Islamic Republic in Iran already provides Hezbollah with around $700
million per year. That sum could very well increase if a new deal is reached
between Washington and Tehran. Unquestionably, among the projects to get a boost
would be the PGM program. Israel has already warned that Hezbollah has amassed
‘hundreds’ of these weapons. Should Israel see the need to strike preemptively,
stemming from fear of a Hezbollah attack on critical infrastructure, the ensuing
war could be catastrophic. Israel would be extremely vulnerable. And Lebanon is
already unraveling, both politically and economically.” — Jonathan Schanzer, FDD
Senior Vice President
“With the expected windfall from the new Iran deal, Hezbollah would be able to
leverage Iranian assistance to expand its latest efforts to develop lethal PGMs.
The Israel Defense Forces views these ‘game-changing weapons’ as a top strategic
threat, second only to that from Iran’s nuclear weapons program.” — Mark
Dubowitz, FDD Chief Executive
The Significance of Hezbollah’s PGM Arsenal
Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal already includes an estimated 150,000
surface-to-surface rockets and missiles, providing it with the capacity to
disrupt Israel’s economy and inflict significant civilian casualties. However,
most of the projectiles are short range and lack accuracy. PGMs, by contrast,
can strike any location in Israel and course-correct during flight to maximize
accuracy and lethality.
This capability would support Hezbollah’s efforts to attack Israeli
infrastructure, such as military sites, chemical sites, nuclear facilities,
water facilities, and densely populated civilian areas. As Jacob Nagel, a senior
fellow at FDD and a former national security adviser to former Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, says, “with enough PGMs, the impact on certain
targets could be close to the impact of a nuclear weapon.”
A Revived Iran Nuclear Deal Would Facilitate PGM Development and Proliferation
The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran imposed minimal restrictions on Tehran’s missile
development. United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the
agreement, enacted a nonbinding missile embargo that expires in 2023. While Iran
has already repeatedly flouted this provision, a new deal that lacks tougher
provisions means that the Islamic Republic will be able to proliferate PGMs with
greater ease and legitimacy.
A Looming Crisis
Israel continues to warn that it may need to deal with the PGM threat. However,
such action would come at a great cost. The regime in Iran has worked with
Hezbollah to obscure the assembly and transportation of PGMs and conceal their
storage under Lebanese homes, schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, refugee
camps, and other heavily populated civilian infrastructure. Such use of human
shields is illegal. The U.S. government, with overwhelming bipartisan
congressional support, and the UN General Assembly explicitly deem this a war
crime.
If the time comes, the decision to eliminate these weapons would be excruciating
for Israel. Just as Hezbollah and its Iranian backers have planned it, every
strike would force a difficult choice between protecting the people of Israel
and causing damage to a state that is already on the verge of collapse.
PGMs: Iran’s Precision-Guided Munitions Project in the Shadow of a Nuclear Deal
Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz/FDD/September 13/2022
Negotiations in Vienna are proceeding in fits and starts to revive an even
shorter and weaker version of the 2015 nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic of
Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The last
deal raised significant alarm around the region, as a cash windfall of billions
of dollars resulting from sanctions relief flowed downstream to Tehran’s
terrorist proxies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah. This new agreement is
estimated to provide Iran with as much as $275 billion in first year sanctions
relief, and as much as $1 trillion by the start of 2030,1 just before most of
the restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program expire.
Last time, the funding served to support Hezbollah’s conventional military
capabilities and buttressed its influence over the Lebanese state. This largesse
from Tehran only strengthened the group’s status as the most heavily armed
non-state actor in the world.2 With the expected windfall from the new deal,
Hezbollah will be able to leverage Iranian assistance to expand its latest
efforts to develop lethal precision-guided munitions (PGMs). The Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) views these “game-changing weapons” as a top strategic threat,
second only to that from Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Indeed, the expected 2022 nuclear deal will likely herald a new era of PGMs in
the Middle East. These weapons are already circulating in the region. And now,
with the UN missile embargo on Iran expiring in 2023, per the terms of the 2015
JCPOA, the Islamic Republic will be able to proliferate these PGMs with greater
ease and legitimacy.
Hezbollah’s Current Capabilities
Hezbollah has an estimated ground force of 30,000 fighters, according to the
IDF.3 The group’s fighters have gained valuable operational experience in recent
years, fighting in the Syrian civil war on behalf of the embattled regime of
strongman Bashar al-Assad and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Despite suffering
huge loses (as many as 2,000 dead and 10,000 wounded), the group is now better
prepared for multiple war scenarios.
Hezbollah’s arsenal includes an estimated 150,000 surface-to-surface rockets and
missiles. Most are inaccurate short-range rockets, but some are more accurate
and have ranges of up to several hundred kilometers.4 During a potential
conflict, the group is capable of challenging the IDF, destroying critical
military and civilian infrastructure, disrupting Israel’s economy,5 and
inflicting significant civilian casualties (including by potentially hitting
chemical storages tanks and nuclear facilities).6
Hezbollah’s primary weakness, however, is that its rockets have been inaccurate.
Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other Iranian proxies have the same
problem. This is why, over the last decade, Iran has launched a project to
enable Hezbollah, and perhaps other groups, to hit targets in Israel more
accurately. The ultimate goal is to strike military and civilian targets in
Israel, a small country with little redundancy in terms of critical
infrastructure.7 The Islamic Republic undoubtedly also sees benefit in
developing these weapons to target other adversaries around the Middle East.
PGMs Defined
Precision-guided munitions are the weapon systems that can enable Hezbollah to
achieve this objective. PGMs can correct their course during flight to hit the
target in a precise fashion, thus maximizing lethality and efficiency.
Assessing precision is based on the speed and payload of the munition. For
example, a small-payload rocket (such as an anti-tank weapon) needs to score a
direct hit within a few meters of the intended target. By contrast, missiles
that fly hundreds of miles with a larger payload may be deemed accurate if they
consistently hit within 10 to 20 meters of their intended target. Hezbollah’s
PGMs reportedly have an accuracy of 10 meters. (The group’s inaccurate missiles
yield a precision of about 1 percent of their distance — for example, a radius
of 2 km for a missile from 200 km away.)8
Precision is achieved through systems (hardware and software) imbedded in the
munition that allow it to correct its course, such as command and control
algorithms, thrusters or gliders, and the ability to lock onto a specific target
based on various guidance systems (GPS or inertial guidance, laser pointers,
computerized vision based on pictures, radio, infra-red, or radar).
PGMs can be assembled in two ways. The first way is to build them deliberately
from scratch. The other entails upgrading “dumb” rockets with limited targeting
capabilities through the addition of certain components (again, hardware and
software), such as navigation systems, command and guidance systems, and control
systems.9
PGMs in Hezbollah’s Possession
Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, has openly boasted of
possessing PGMs. Specifics of this program are not readily available in the
public domain, as the group protects this information for fear of preemptive
Israeli strikes.
Still, open-source reports indicate that Hezbollah has an arsenal of the
following PGM variants, many of them based on Iranian platforms, but some
obtained from Russia and China:
Surface-to-Surface Rockets and Missiles: These include the Fateh-110/M-60010
(200–300 km range) and the Zelzal-2 (210 km range). Hezbollah may also possess
newer Iranian missiles, such as the Zulfiqar and the Quds-2 (which the Houthis
in Yemen have used against the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia). 11
Anti-ship Cruise Missiles: These include the Russian-made Yakhont (300 km range)
and the Iranian version of the Chinese C-802 missile (120 km).12
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): Hezbollah’s arsenal of UAVs includes many of
Iranian origin. They include the Ayub, which is the name Hezbollah gave to the
Iranian Shahed-129. The Ayub has a range of 1,700 to 2,400 km and can carry up
to eight Sadid precision-guided bombs). Hezbollah also possesses the Mirsad-1
and Mirsad-2 (based on the Iranian Mohajer-2 and Mohajer-4 UAVs). These have a
range of 50 and 150 km, respectively. Their payloads include two or three
cameras and up to 12 RPG rockets. Hezbollah also has in its arsenal at least one
suicide UAV, the Ababil-2. It has a 150 km range and can carry a payload of up
to 45 kg of explosives. Hezbollah is also believed to possess the Ma’arab
suicide drone (based on the Iranian Yasser UAV, which has a range of 200 to 400
km and electronic warfare capabilities).13
The Evolution of the PGM project
In a 2018 interview with Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force commander, General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh,
recounted how in 2009 he presented the Iranian leadership with a plan to
modernize the country’s missile program. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei overruled
his entire plan and ordered him to focus solely on the development of PGMs.14
Hezbollah’s PGM program has since gone through several distinct phases.15 The
first involved Iranian smuggling of complete accurate rockets (such as the
Fateh-110) via land, air, and sea routes to Syria and Lebanon.16 The “fog of
war” in Syria made these Iranian shipments somewhat more feasible despite
consistent efforts by the Israeli Air Force to interdict them.
The second phase began when Hezbollah came to understand that the Israelis have
near-total intelligence dominance in Syria, resulting in the frequent
destruction of PGMs transiting the war-torn country.17 Using Iranian technology
and missile components, Hezbollah began producing PGMs in Syria, with the full
knowledge of the Assad regime.18 These PGMs were mostly M-600s, the Syrian
version of the Fateh-100.19 Once assembled, these weapon systems were later
transferred to Hezbollah in Lebanon via land routes. Again, Israeli strikes
prevented most of these transfers.
The Islamic Republic and Hezbollah thus adopted a third course of action: the
production and upgrading of systems inside Lebanon. This process still
incorporates materials (and now machinery) from Iran as well as guidance and
training from Iranian engineers.20 The Israelis have revealed the location of
some missile production facilities, leading Hezbollah to dismantle them.21
However, others still exist. Nasrallah explicitly said as much in a February
2022 speech.22
Quantity of Hezbollah’s PGMs and UAVs
Israeli exposure of the PGM production sites and air strikes on smuggling
attempts in Syria have delayed the PGM program.23 Still, Hezbollah and Iran have
made progress. How much progress is debatable.
Hezbollah and IRGC commanders claim that Hezbollah had accurate missiles as
early as 2014.24 But estimates of Hezbollah’s PGM arsenal began increasing only
after the advent of the production facilities in Lebanon.
In early 2019, Israeli officials put the number of Hezbollah PGMs at about 2025
or a “small handful.”26 Other experts assessed that Hezbollah had already
amassed about 200 accurate missiles.27
By the end of 2020, Nasrallah asserted that his group possessed twice as many
PGMs as it had in 2019, saying Israel’s efforts to prevent their transfer had
failed.28 Some estimates put the number of PGMs in late 2020 at “dozens,”29
while others assessed that Hezbollah has “hundreds” of accurate Fateh-110
missiles.30
An assessment published in February 2022 puts Hezbollah’s total number of
accurate weapons at “several hundred.”31 This is consistent with off-the-record
statements made by IDF officers.
In addition, Hezbollah possesses up to a dozen Yakhont anti-ship missiles and an
unknown number of Chinese-made C-802s. The latter have been delivered from Iran
and are possibly operated by Iranians in Lebanon.32
Of all its precision weapons, Hezbollah’s UAV arsenal is the largest, with an
estimated 2,000 systems.33 They vary from reconnaissance drones to loitering
munitions to what are essentially rudimentary cruise missiles, depending upon
their navigation and communication systems, among other things.
Israeli Efforts to Expose and Destroy PGMs
Hezbollah endeavors to conceal the location of its PGM arsenal and production
facilities. Nasrallah said as much in December 2020 on Al-Mayadeen TV.34 The
Israelis have, at least until now, declined to attack the known sites in
Lebanon. Rather, Israeli officials have released the exact coordinates of
storage facilities, production facilities, and other buildings involved in the
PGM project.35 Jerusalem’s goal appears to be exposure, with the aim of shaming
Hezbollah and forcing the group to shutter the sites. Likewise, the Alma
Research and Education Center has exposed the locations of other facilities
involved in rocket assembly and storage. 36
It is unclear what percentage of the facilities have been exposed, but it is
likely modest. Many of Hezbollah’s work sites are small, and they can be
activated or shut down on short notice. This is part of Hezbollah’s plan to
create redundancy amidst Israeli efforts to disrupt the project.
While Israel has carefully avoided conflict with Hezbollah, there has been one
notable exception. On August 27, 2019, two drones attacked a target in the
Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut. The attack was attributed to the IDF, and the
target was reported to be a high-grade propellant mixer, which is an important
component of the PGM project.37
Units and Personnel Associated With the PGM Program
Many entities and persons involved in the Hezbollah PGM program are not publicly
known. However, a handful have been exposed in recent years.
Hezbollah’s Unit 1600, for example, is reportedly responsible for setting up (or
dismantling) the sites associated with the precision program.38 Unit 108 is
responsible for the smuggling of PGMs and PGM parts to Lebanon. This includes
“facilitating the transfer of weapons, technology, and other support,” according
to the U.S. Treasury Department.39 Unit 108 is also involved in leveraging
criminal networks to support Hezbollah’s finances and logistics.40
The IRGC also plays a direct role in this operation. Unit 190 of the Quds Force,
the IRGC’s expeditionary arm, is involved in smuggling operations. The unit,
which comprises about 20 people,41 specializes in hiding and disguising weapons
as civilian equipment.42
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has also identified several civilian companies
involved in the precision program. They include Muobayed for Lubricants SAL,
Barakat Electro Mechanical & Trading co. SARL, and Toufaili General Trading
(otherwise known as TCM Tfayli).43 Israel asserts that these companies provide
Hezbollah with oil lubricants, machinery, and ventilation systems to facilitate
the PGM project.44
Several individuals are associated with the project, including several
high-level Quds Force operatives, according to the IDF. Muhammad Hussein-Zada
Hejazi heads “Iran’s precision guided missile project in Lebanon,” where he
“directly commands Iranian personnel.” Majid Nuab is “an engineer who
specializes in surface-to-surface missiles.” He is the “technological manager of
the precision weapons project in Lebanon.” And Ali Asrar Nuruzi is the “chief
logistics officer,” responsible for transferring PGM components from Iran to
Lebanon.”45
On the Hezbollah side, one notable name is Muhammad Qasir. He was sanctioned by
the U.S. Treasury for heading the aforementioned Unit 108, which smuggles PGM
materials into Lebanon.46
A Looming Crisis
Israel continues to warn that it may soon need to deal with the PGM threat.47
However, doing so could come at great cost. The regime in Iran is not only
working assiduously to obscure the transportation and assembly of these PGMs,
but is also devising ways to store them under homes, schools, hospitals,
apartment buildings, refugee camps, and other heavily populated civilian
infrastructure. As one former Israeli official stated, “Every third house in
Shia neighborhoods contains a military asset of the organization.”48
In other words, Hezbollah, like Hamas, is using human shields, illegal under
international law. The UN General Assembly explicitly deems this a war crime, as
does the U.S. government, with overwhelming bipartisan congressional support.49
When the time comes, the decision to strike these weapons on the ground will be
excruciating for the IDF. Just as Hezbollah and its Iranian backers have planned
it, every strike will create immense public-relations pressure for Israel as
images of injured or dead civilians fill the television screens and Twitter
feeds of news consumers worldwide.
While tensions escalate between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, new questions
linger as to whether Iran is providing PGMs to other proxies in the region.
Israel has reportedly struck targets in Iraq,50 which is home to several Shiite
militias.
Should the Islamic Republic, boosted by a massive influx of cash resulting from
a new nuclear deal, along with the 2023 expiration of the UN ban on Iranian
missile testing, step up efforts to provide PGMs to its regional proxies, the
region could experience a new wave of violence.
Until Iran began doing so, PGM technology had never before been proliferated to
nonstate actors. Hezbollah is the test case. If successful, the project could
provoke a brutal war between Israel and Tehran’s Lebanese proxy. This would
spell disaster for Lebanon, which is already on the verge of political and
economic collapse. Israel would undeniably pay a steep price, too. The Israeli
doctrine of deterrence known as the “Dahiyeh Doctrine” may have prevented
conflict until now.51 But calm may only last for so long.
And the threat may not end there. The cash injection resulting from a new
nuclear deal could also prompt the Iranian regime to engage in wider
proliferation of these weapons to its other proxies, further destabilizing a
region already mired by terrorism and conflict.
Anti-Israel boycotts masquerade as social justice
David May/The Jerusalem Post/September 13/2022
Morningstar refuses to take responsibility for how its “responsible investment”
methods have targeted Israel, after yet another confusion between Social Justice
and Anti-Zionism.
Nineteen US states sent Morningstar, the financial services giant, a clear
message last month: its attempts to sweep its anti-Israel bias under the rug are
not fooling anyone.
On August 17, Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt announced that 18 states
had joined Missouri in investigating the Chicago-based corporation’s apparent
support for Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) against Israel. Schmitt
promised to investigate whether Morningstar’s Environmental, Social and
Governance (ESG) tools amounted to “consumer fraud or unfair trade practices.”
ESG investment is a huge industry, accounting for $17 trillion in assets in the
US alone. While ESG is designed to incorporate ethical considerations into
investment, the industry’s subjective standards have allowed anti-Israel
activists to impose their agenda on unwitting investors. Former US State
Department special envoy for monitoring and combating antisemitism Elan Carr has
called it “BDS dressed up as social-justice investing.”
Matters only got worse on August 25, when top financial authorities from 17
states called on Morningstar to reverse course on Israel. This followed Arizona
State Treasurer Kimberly Yee’s warning to Morningstar’s CEO that he had 30 days
to prove his company was not violating Arizona’s anti-BDS law. Otherwise,
Arizona would add the company to the state’s prohibited investments list.
Morningstar uses “anti-Israel and antisemitic sources to negatively impact
companies doing business in Israel and Israeli-controlled territories,” Yee
wrote.
Arizona’s threat may only be the tip of the iceberg: ESG firms must contend with
anti-BDS statutes on the books in more than 30 states. These laws have created
real consequences, including prohibitions on investing state funds, for
companies engaging in discriminatory boycotts of Israel.
Morningstar and the BDS
Morningstar’s BDS headache began in 2017 when it acquired a 40% stake in ESG
firm Sustainalytics, an acquisition it completed in 2020. Sustainalytics already
had a long track record of promoting boycotts of Israel, especially through its
“Occupied Territories Involvement Report,” which pushed investors to stay away
from territories controlled by Israel. When companies and churches boycotted
Israel, Sustainalytics’ research support was often leading the way.
By January 2021, the Sustainalytics acquisition had landed Morningstar on the
investment monitoring group JLens’ “Do Not Invest” list. According to JLens,
Morningstar “pressure[d] BDS-targeted global companies with business ties to
Israel to divest Israeli operations or cease sales to Israeli entities.”
Morningstar tried to brush off and even suppress JLens’ efforts to raise
Morningstar shareholders’ awareness of this anti-Israel liability.
But in July 2021, the Illinois Investment Policy Board, a state body that
enforces anti-BDS investment laws, launched an official investigation. Not
wanting to get blacklisted, Morningstar eventually hired outside law firm White
& Case to review the allegations. The firm detailed its findings in a 117-page
report published in May 2022.
Though Morningstar portrayed the report as proof that it was not engaged in BDS,
White & Case highlighted numerous areas of concern. Particularly problematic was
Sustainalytics’ reliance on deeply flawed, anti-Israel sources. For example, the
report noted that Sustainalytics enjoys a special relationship with Who Profits,
a pro-BDS research organization founded in response to Palestinian calls to
boycott Israel.
And according to Sustainalytics’ “Occupied Territories” document, merely
operating in disputed territories can contribute to human rights abuses. This
stands in stark contrast to international law and the United Nations’
non-binding principles on corporate social responsibility, which allow for
investing in disputed territories. Seventy percent of companies Sustainalytics
flagged for involvement in conflict zones were related to Israel.
What’s more, Sustainalytics’ ESG screening punished Israel for defending its
citizens against terrorism. The firm placed companies on a watchlist for helping
build and maintain Israel’s West Bank security barrier, providing Israel with
surveillance equipment or supplying Israel with arms.
This past June, upon the report’s recommendations, Morningstar made minor fixes
to its ESG tools to counter accusations of anti-Israel bias. The firm
discontinued its Human Rights Radar product because it “exhibited bias in its
outcomes by overrepresenting firms linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”
The company also committed to other token steps aimed at combating bias, such as
increasing transparency in its source usage and ratings methodology and
eliminating biased terminology.
Then Morningstar kicked up its feet. It touted the Illinois Investment Policy
Board’s decision at its June meeting not to place the company on the state’s
“prohibited investment list” as proof Morningstar had eliminated the problem.
However, according to a meeting attendee, the board’s decision was contingent
upon the investment firm’s implementation of far-reaching reforms recommended by
White & Case and others. The board will meet again in September.
Even now, Morningstar refuses to take responsibility for how its “responsible
investment” methods have targeted Israel. The investment firm had hoped that
minor reforms would prevent unwanted scrutiny, but 19 states have now made clear
they see through this window dressing.
Morningstar’s continued promotion of boycotts against Israel confirms that all
states with anti-BDS laws should help divest Morningstar of its anti-Israel
bias.
The writer is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @DavidSamuelMay. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
The Palestinians and the World Do Not Need Another Corrupt, Failed Terrorist
Arab State
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/September 13/2022
The truth, however, is that neither the Palestinian Authority leadership nor the
Palestinian people is ready for statehood. And the responsibility for that fact
lies squarely with the ruthless and failed Palestinian leaders.
The Palestinian bid to obtain UN recognition of a Palestinian state comes at a
time when the PA appears to be losing control over some parts of the West Bank,
where gunmen belonging to several groups have replaced the Palestinian security
forces... [and] are responsible not only for terrorist attacks against Israel,
but also the growing scenes of anarchy and lawlessness....
Abbas himself has long been praising and glorifying Palestinians who carry out
terrorist attacks....
Abbas, who is unable (and unwilling) to rein in a few hundred gunmen in two
major Palestinian cities in the West Bank, wants the United Nations, its member
states and the rest of the world to believe that he is ready to run a state of
his own.
If Abbas cannot send his officers to confiscate an M-16 rifle from an unruly
gunman in Jenin or Nablus, how can he be trusted to prevent the future
Palestinian state from turning into a launching pad for regional terrorism?
Abbas wants the UN to grant the Palestinians the status of full member state,
but cannot provide any guarantees that the aspired-for state would not be turned
into a terror entity that is armed and funded by Iran's regime and its proxies.
Abbas wants the UN to recognize "Palestine" as a state when he literally has no
control over half of the Palestinians... If Abbas dares to go to the Gaza Strip,
Hamas will hang him at the entrance to the area on charges of "collaboration"
with Israel.
Abbas is seeking full UN recognition at a time when he continues to block
general elections for the PA, arrests and intimidates his political opponents,
refuses to share power with other Palestinians and muzzles freedom of
expression.
More than they need a state, the Palestinians need good leadership. They need to
rid themselves of the corrupt leaders who have deprived them of international
aid and led them from one disaster after the other since the early 1970s, when
the PLO was expelled from Jordan for undermining the kingdom's sovereignty.
[T]he Palestinians' biggest tragedy by far has been failed leadership and more
failed leadership. It radicalizes them toward Islamic fundamentalism and
deprives them of elections, freedom of expression and international aid. The UN
member states would be doing a great service to the Palestinians if they asked
Abbas about the absence of freedom of speech and a functioning parliament under
his regime.
They would also be doing the Palestinian people a huge service if they asked
Abbas about torture in Palestinian Authority prisons and the continuing
crackdown by his security forces on human rights activists and journalists. And
they should definitely ask him what measures he has taken to end financial and
administrative corruption in the PA.
These issues are more pressing for the Palestinians than another worthless
document by the UN recognizing a fictitious Palestinian state that is already
marked by the intrusion of other brutal radical Islamist dictatorships.
Neither the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership nor the Palestinian people is
ready for statehood. Responsibility for that fact lies squarely with the
ruthless and failed Palestinian leaders. The last parliamentary election the PA
held was in 2006, when Hamas won the vote. The last PA presidential election was
held in 2005, which means that 87-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas is now in the
17th year of his four-year term. (Photo by Zharan Hammad/Getty Images)
The Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership has decided to renew its bid to gain
full membership in the United Nations. PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who is
scheduled to address the UN General Assembly during its session in New York
later this month, is expected to raise the issue of upgrading the Palestinians'
status from non-member observer state to full member.
The PA leadership, in other words, wants the world to believe that the
Palestinians are ready for statehood and that is why the time has come to
recognize "Palestine" as a full member of the UN.
The truth, however, is that neither the PA leadership nor the Palestinian people
is ready for statehood. And the responsibility for that fact lies squarely with
the ruthless and failed Palestinian leaders.
Before examining and voting on the PA request, the UN member states need to take
into consideration a number of factors.
The Palestinian bid to obtain UN recognition of a Palestinian state comes at a
time when the PA appears to be losing control over some parts of the West Bank,
where gunmen belonging to several groups have replaced the Palestinian security
forces. The gunmen, who belong to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and
even Mahmoud Abbas's ruling Fatah faction, are responsible not only for
terrorist attacks against Israel, but also the growing scenes of anarchy and
lawlessness, especially in the areas of Nablus and Jenin in the northern West
Bank.
Abbas has no desire to confront the militiamen as long as they do not pose a
direct threat to his regime. The presence of the gunmen on the streets makes
Abbas's government and security forces appear fragile in the eyes of many
Palestinians, but these men are at least not trying to topple him. Abbas has
nothing to worry about as long as the terrorist attacks are directed only
against Israelis.
Abbas also seems to be afraid that if he orders his security forces to crack
down on the gunmen, he will be denounced by his people as a "traitor" and
"puppet" in the hands of Israel. Abbas is well aware that the gunmen are viewed
by the Palestinian public as heroes because of their attacks against Israelis.
Abbas himself has long been praising and glorifying Palestinians who carry out
terrorist attacks against Israel. Earlier this month, he again voiced support
for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel for their involvement in terrorism.
Referring to the prisoners, Abbas said: "These prisoners are heroes and symbols
of the Palestinian people. We are proud of them."
Abbas is not going to send his security officers to arrest or disarm the same
gunmen that he hails as "heroes." He knows that the moment he does so, the
Palestinian public will revolt against him.
Abbas, who is unable (and unwilling) to rein in a few hundred gunmen in two
major Palestinian cities in the West Bank, wants the United Nations, its member
states and the rest of the world to believe that he is ready to run a state of
his own.
If Abbas cannot send his officers to confiscate an M-16 rifle from an unruly
gunman in Jenin or Nablus, how can he be trusted to prevent the future
Palestinian state from turning into a launching pad for more regional terrorism.
Does anyone seriously think that Abbas or any other Palestinian leader would
deploy troops along a border with Israel to stop terrorist attacks?
Does anyone seriously think that Abbas and his PA cronies would survive for one
day if Israel's security forces, which protect Abbas from his own people, were
to leave the West Bank?
Abbas and his men will undoubtedly lose their homes (and also possibly their
lives) to the Iranian-backed Hamas and PIJ terrorist groups. Public opinion
polls have already indicated that a majority of the Palestinians prefer Hamas,
the group that seeks the elimination of Israel, to Abbas and his corrupt and
fragmented Fatah faction.
Abbas wants the UN to grant the Palestinians the status of full member state,
but cannot provide any guarantees that the aspired-for state would not be turned
into a terror entity that is armed and funded by Iran's regime and its proxies.
The UN state members also need to take into consideration the fact that Abbas
and the PA were expelled from the Gaza Strip by Hamas in 2007. Since then, Abbas
has lost control over the two million Palestinians living in the Hamas-controlled
coastal enclave.
Abbas wants the UN to recognize "Palestine" as a state when he literally has no
control over half of the Palestinians living in within the pre-1967 lines (West
Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem). If Abbas dares to go to the Gaza Strip,
Hamas will hang him at the entrance to the area on charges of "collaboration"
with Israel.
Just last week, Hamas executed, by firing squad and hanging, two Palestinians
convicted of "collaboration" with Israel.
Hamas leaders and officials have repeatedly accused Abbas and the Palestinian
Authority leadership of "treason" because of the security coordination between
the PA security forces and Israel in the West Bank. Abbas, who wants the UN to
believe that he is worthy of running an independent and sovereign state, is set
to meet the same fate as the two unfortunate "collaborators" who were executed
by Hamas.
Abbas is seeking full UN recognition at a time when he continues to block
general elections for the PA, arrests and intimidates his political opponents,
refuses to share power with other Palestinians and muzzles freedom of
expression.
The last time the Palestinians had a parliamentary election was in 2006, when
Hamas won the vote. The last PA presidential election was held a year earlier,
which means that the 87-year-old Abbas is now in his 17th year of his four-year
term in office.
The Palestinians do not have a functioning parliament or a free and independent
media. Yet, Abbas thinks that this is the right time to apply for UN recognition
of a Palestinian state. The Palestinians are divided into two rival entities (in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip) and still Abbas wants he world to believe that
they are ready for statehood.
The PA security forces' control over the northern West Bank is rapidly eroding,
but that does not seem to bother Abbas or stop him from trying to persuade the
UN to support his statehood bid.
Abbas's renewed attempt to obtain full UN membership also comes at a time when
the battle of succession in the Palestinian leadership is heating up.
Abbas's decision to promote his top confidant, Hussein al-Sheikh, to the
influential job of PLO Secretary-General is being challenged by several veteran
leaders who are opposed to the move and who see themselves as natural successors
to Abbas.
Abbas is going to the UN amid growing tensions and disputes among the top
leaders in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinians. Abbas has already
signaled that he would like to see al-Sheikh replace him as president. Abbas's
opponents are saying in private quarters: "Over our dead bodies."
This power struggle does not bode well for the future of the PA leadership or
the Palestinian people, especially in light of increased talk about a possible
civil war in the post-Abbas era.
This means that the Palestinian state that Abbas wants the UN to recognize will
be unstable and plagued with violence and bloodshed from the infighting among
Abbas's cronies and the ongoing power struggle between his Fatah faction and
Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
More than they need a state, the Palestinians need good leadership. They need to
rid themselves of the corrupt leaders who have deprived them of international
aid and led them from one disaster after the other since the early 1970s, when
the PLO was expelled from Jordan for undermining the kingdom's sovereignty.
Since then, the Palestinians' biggest tragedy by far has been failed leadership
and more failed leadership. It radicalizes them toward Islamic fundamentalism
and deprives them of elections, freedom of expression and international aid. The
UN member states would be doing a great service to the Palestinians if they
asked Abbas about the absence of freedom of speech and a functioning parliament
under his regime.
They would also be doing the Palestinian people a huge service if they asked
Abbas about torture in Palestinian Authority prisons and the continuing
crackdown by his security forces on human rights activists and journalists. And
they definitely need to ask him what measures he has taken to end financial and
administrative corruption in the PA.
These issues are more pressing for the Palestinians than another worthless
document by the UN recognizing a fictitious Palestinian state that is already
marked by the intrusion of other brutal radical Islamist dictatorships.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Gorbachev’s Legacy Lives on
Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy/Former Egyptian Ambassador and Senior UN official/Asharq
Al-Awsat/September 13/2022
Since the death of Mikhail Gorbachev much has been written about his legacy.
Articles, documentaries and comments have been critical, as well as
complimentary depending on how one was affected by his policies.
In Russia he remains controversial. Some have vilified him as responsible for
the demise of the Soviet Union and as a consequence, Russia’s loss of its status
as a super power. This touched a particularly sensitive chord with most Russians
who take pride in their country as an exceptional state with a universal
message.
Others praise him for bringing greater freedoms to the Russian people. Former
Soviet republics, whether in the Baltics, the Caucuses, Central Asia and in
Eastern Europe, credit him for initiating the process that led to their
independence.
In the West, he is invariably praised. Where he also remains controversial is
the rest of the world. For many, he is responsible, wittingly or otherwise, for
the chaos that has engulfed the international system as the result of the end of
the Cold War. The result of which has been a rise in the wanton use of force,
whether in the form of internal strife or foreign invasions. Witness the
Balkans, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria.
I had the fortune of witnessing the Gorbachev era first hand. I served at the
Egyptian embassy in Moscow from 1986 to 1990. I arrived one year after Gorbachev
came to power and ended my assignment one year before the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the exit of Gorbachev. I witnessed Perestroika and Glasnost first hand
and the forces they unleashed. But I also was able to observe at close range and
in a tangible manner the many factors that were responsible for the downfall of
Soviet Russia.
I also witnessed the yearning of the Soviet people for change and a better life.
I could also feel the rising nationalism and the penchant for asserting
independence in places like Tallinn, Tbilisi and Samarkand.
But the Soviet system was beyond repair. It was not only structurally weak, but
corruption had permeated the system in a way that made reform impossible.
If it were not Gorbachev who had initiated the reforms, someone else from his
generation would have. Contrary to the previous generations that ruled Soviet
Russia, Gorbachev’s generation were more realistic as what the Soviet system
could provide its people. The system was not able to satisfy the needs and
aspirations of Russians for a better life.
The illusion of a socialist utopia down the road was no longer credible nor
sustainable. The Russians now lived in a global village and aspired to the
comforts of life that their neighbors in Europe, let alone the United States,
enjoyed.
So, reform was both necessary and inevitable. The question was how?
Gorbachev saw economic change as the avenue to political reform. He introduced a
“cooperative” sector as a first step towards what would have been limited and
controlled private enterprise. But he quickly realized that even this minor step
was resisted by the Communist Party apparatchiks who controlled the levers of
power. So, he shifted to prioritizing political reform.
He assumed the presidency in the hope of shifting power away from the
recalcitrant communist party to bureaucracy. Izvestia the government newspaper
became for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution more important than
Pravda the communist party newspaper as the vehicle more representative of the
views of the leadership, i.e. Gorbachev and his allies.
Notwithstanding Gorbachev’s reform efforts, the system was unable to adequately
respond. The result was confusion and ultimately collapse.
If Gorbachev’s attempt at internal reform utterly failed, aspects of his foreign
policy he laid live on. The foreign policy was designed to create an
international environment conducive to domestic reform and was reflected in the
following priorities: an improved relationship with the West and particularly
the United States, close cooperation with China and scaling back the USSR’s
entanglements around the world and maintaining balanced relations with all
countries and parties, including in the Middle East.
After the departure of Soviet military advisors from Egypt in 1972 and the
subsequent deterioration of relations between Moscow and Cairo, Soviet foreign
policy was designed to isolate Egypt from its immediate neighborhood,
principally by supporting the anti-Egyptian Arab “Steadfastness Front” comprised
of Algeria, Libya, Iraq, South Yemen, Syria and the PLO. Relations with Israel,
however, remained cool.
As to relations with Iran and Turkiye, they maintained their historical pattern
of a combination of mutual mistrust and inevitable cooperation due to
geographical proximity.
With the advent of Gorbachev, this policy underwent important changes. Relations
with Israel underwent progressive improvement. More than anything else it was
reflected in allowing direct migration to Israel. Before that not only Jewish
immigration was highly restricted, but no Soviet Jew could leave the Soviet
Union directly for Israel. They were given visas to Austria and from there they
would choose their final destination.
Easing restrictions on Jewish immigration was clearly designed to improve
relations with the US, particularly with Congress. At the time Arab embassies
expressed their serious concerns to the Soviet government. The response was that
it was a necessary condition for improving relations with Washington and that in
any case the numbers were insignificant.
The reality proved to be different. More than a million Soviets immigrated to
Israel, accounting for some 20% of the population. More importantly, they have
helped transform Israel into an international high-tech powerhouse, thereby
significantly altering the balance of power in the Middle East.
Under Gorbachev, Soviet policy was no longer aimed to isolate Egypt from its
region. On the contrary, improving relations with Cairo was prioritized. After a
hiatus of five years, in 1985 the respective embassies were once again headed at
the ambassadorial level. The long-festering problem of Egyptian debt to the
Soviet Union was finally resolved. This opened the door to more intensive
economic and commercial ties.
Relations improved to the extent that President Hosni Mubarak visited Moscow in
1990, the first visit by an Egyptian President since Anwar Sadat visited Moscow
in 1972.
Notwithstanding Moscow’s policy in normalizing relations with Egypt, it
maintained its close relationship with the countries of the Steadfastness Front.
But not without complications. During his visit to Moscow in February 1987,
South Yemen’s President Ali Salem El Beidh, a close ally, was told point blank
that leaders in the developing world “should not be under the illusion that they
can skip over historical stages in their economic and political development in
their quest to achieve socialism.”
This was in essence an admonishment, not only to the guest but to the socialist
leaders of the Third World, against the hasty pursuit of their goals and a clear
warning that they cannot count on the Soviet Union if they were to pursue such
an imprudent policy.
President Hafez Assad of Syria, also was subjected to an unpleasant surprise
during his visit in 1987. Moscow let it be known that the meeting between
Gorbachev and his Syrian guest did not go particularly well.
While Moscow was the main weapon supplier to Iraq in its war against Iran, it
did not hesitate to curtail its arms shipments when Saddam Hussein used Soviet
missiles to target Iranian population centers during the Iraq-Iran war. As to
relations with both Iran and Türkiye, they remained, as throughout history,
complicated. By the time Gorbachev left power, Soviet policy in the Middle East
had undergone significant change. Relations with Egypt were largely normalized.
Relations with the traditional allies, Libya, Iraq and Syria were preserved but
maintained at a lower intensity. Relations with Israel were normalized.
President Boris Yeltsin continued along the same lines. This opened the door to
the policies pursued by President Vladimir Putin.
Putin may have reversed certain aspects of Gorbachev’s foreign policy over time.
Relations with the West and particularly the US, were initially excellent, but
drifted to antagonism and ultimately outright hostility. It was not by design,
but rather the result of the crisis in Ukraine that start in 2014 largely as a
result of conflicting approaches to European security and differences over the
role of Russia in the unfolding international system. Relations with China
remained on course and became even more close on all levels. The one region
where there was clear continuity was the Middle East. In fact, the changes
introduced under Gorbachev have been accelerated under Putin. Egyptian-Russian
relations have gained increased importance for both countries. Russia has become
the main source of wheat and tourism for Egypt. Military relations have also
improved significantly as the result of Egypt buying significant amounts of
Russian weapons. Moreover, Moscow is building four nuclear power plants there.
As to Russian relations with Israel, they have maintained an upward trajectory
reaching unprecedented heights. The fact that Israel coordinates its military
policy with Russia - as we have seen in Syria - is a glaring example. The
process initiated by Gorbachev in seeking balanced relations with the countries
of the region has borne fruit. Today Moscow is the only major power that is able
to talk to all opposing parties, whether in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon and
Iraq. It also maintains friendly relations with regional adversaries Iran,
Türkiye, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Gorbachev’s place in history
will remain controversial, but when it comes to the Middle East, his legacy,
with both its positive and negative aspects, lives on.
Iran and Al-Qaeda Again... What is Our Responsibility?
Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 13/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/111928/%d9%86%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%85-%d9%82%d8%b7%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%af%d8%a9-%d9%85%d8%ac%d8%af%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%85%d8%a7-%d9%87%d9%8a/
The immense changes we have seen since 9/11 have not changed what this ominous
day for the future of international relations and our region’s ties to the rest
of the world stands for. The ramifications of this crime perpetrated by Al-Qaeda
remain at the heart of the series of events that have unfolded since that day,
with the US invading Afghanistan and toppling the Taliban regime before
continuing along its way toward Baghdad and taking down Saddam Hussein’s regime.
In both wars, Iran’s rule was crucial. The Velayat-e Faqih regime was preparing
an onslaught against the Arab and Gulf countries neighboring it. In pursuing
this end, it benefited from the frenzy that a wounded United States had been in
and the confused cultural foundation underpinning the war, which allowed Iran to
maintain its innocence in the face of accusations of terrorism and pin them on
Sunni majority countries.
Shiite elites in Washington dominated the conversation about the war. Kanan
Makiya, Fouad Ajami, and the Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi were among the most
prominent of these elites, as were Iranian nationalist elites who, despite their
hostility to the regime in Tehran, did not aspire to wage a war that would
destroy Iran. They all converged on the view that the US would be better off
allying with the Shiites of the Middle East than its Sunnis; the oil of the
Middle East is mostly on “Shiite geography,” which makes partition on sectarian
grounds beneficial to US strategic goals and interests.
Iran’s cooperation with Washington on both the Afghan and Iraq wars during
Mohammad Khatami’s term, politically and on the ground, was the most prominent
consequence of the political and strategic ravings that had consumed the
Americans at the time. Despite its inclusion in the “Axis of Evil,” as George W
Bush called it in 2002, Washington continued to hold talks with Tehran and seek
a broader settlement with it that goes beyond tactical agreements regarding the
wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which brought down two common enemies of Iran and
the US, the Taliban and Saddam. However, the rise of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad put a
stick in the wheels of this effort, which the IRGC and Khamenei believed could
threaten the sustainability of the revolutionary regime if taken too far.
It was from Biden’s pocket that dividing Iraq into three states was taken- an
idea supported by Saudi Arabia’s enemies in the US and the Arab world. They
launched media and political campaigns to “demonize” the Kingdom and hold it
directly responsible for the crime that took place on 9/11 and then for the
explosive rise of “jihadists” and their militias in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere.
Jordan’s security was threatened, and propaganda campaigns against Egypt
emerged, sowing the seeds of the regime’s eventual toppling.
In the first place- and as we would later find this out for a fact on the basis
of documents and recordings found in Bin Laden’s safe house in Abbottabad,
Pakistan- Al-Qaeda did not recruit 15 Saudis among the 19 perpetrators
haphazardly. Bin Laden wanted to “employ” a wounded United States to overthrow
the Saudi regime in response to the attack that his demonic mind had planned and
executed.
In this chaotic jungle of ideas, policies, and horror, Iran played its cards
wisely after having put all of its rivals on the back foot. This chaos remains
because of all the literature, which does not take seriously the role played by
Iran in the lead-up to 9/11, whether direct or indirect, and in investing in the
strategic opportunities that would follow as it crossed ideological and
doctrinal dividing lines with astonishing dexterity.
On this year’s anniversary, the Twitter account ‘Anonymous’ posted a picture
from 2015 of major Al-Qaeda figures in Iran: Saif al-Adel, who will likely
succeed Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Abu Muhammad al-Masri (who became a relative of
Bin Laden after his son Hamza bin Laden married Masri’s daughter) who was the
second in command before killed in Tehran in the summer of 2020, and Zawahiri’s
deputy, Abu al-Khair al-Masri, who was killed in Syria in 2017.
Though it is the most recent, this image is not the only documentation proving
the complicated ties between Tehran and Al-Qaeda.
Even the 9/11 Commission report concluded that some of those who perpetrated
that attack had received training in Lebanon at the hands of Hezbollah and IRGC
operatives when they began developing a relationship with Al-Qaeda in the early
nineties. These ties were then fortified in the middle of that decade as the
jihad organizations in Sudan allied together under the Sudanese Islamic preacher
Hassan al-Turabi.
Moreover, in 2016, the New York Federal Court, headed by Judge George Daniels
fined Iran billions of dollars, which the court ruled would go towards
compensating the American families killed on 9/11 and the insurance companies
that had incurred financial losses as a result of the attacks, for its role in
facilitating these terrorist attacks.
Court documents from the proceedings indicate that Iran facilitated al-Qaeda
operatives’ entry to Afghanistan, where they would go on to undergo training,
and that Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh visited the perpetrators in
October 2000, coordinating their trip to Iran and securing them new passports
before the attack. These documents also demonstrate that the Iranian government
ordered border guards not to stamp the perpetrators’ passports in order to avoid
curtailing their mobility. Iran continued to provide material support to
Al-Qaeda (according to the documents) after the September attacks, providing the
organization’s top brass a safe haven.
These documents are consistent with the directives Osama bin Laden had issued to
Al-Qaeda that were found in Abbottabad. The copies of these directives show that
he had been opposed to the open hostility against Iran expressed by some within
the movement and that he “opposes threatening Iran” because “Iran is our primary
corridor” for accessing money, people and communication, as well as for
negotiations regarding prisoners.
What we know about the stringent chain of command in the IRGC, whose final
decisions are made by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, should leave no doubt in our
mind that cooperating with Al-Qaeda was Iranian state policy. Only rarely is
this explicitly stated as the US position. One of those few occasions came weeks
before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, when former US Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo declared that “unlike in Afghanistan, when Al-Qaeda was hiding
in the mountains, Al-Qaeda today is operating under the hard shell of the
Iranian regime’s protection.” On the other hand, the Chair of the 9/11
Commission, Thomas Kean, told ‘The Guardian’ that the report found “no evidence
that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials
individually funded (Al-Qaeda).”
No strategic issue in the Middle East has been overlooked quite like the
relationship between Al-Qaeda and Iran, the tactical alliances forged by Sunni
and Shiite terrorists. Instead, we saw attempts to undermine the resilience of
national regimes across the Middle East, under the pretext of democracy and
human rights, taken extremely lightly.
Will we see, for example, a massive Arabic series on Netflix or another platform
that dramatizes this conflict? Or will we satisfy ourselves with opposing
Netflix’s social agenda in light of the culture wars, producing works to counter
this agenda- thereby entrenching the ideas about who is “progressive” and
“backward” in the Western mind and providing our enemies with fodder to use
against us?!