English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 29/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.november29.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Martha, Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of
only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away
from her.’”
Luke 10/38-42: “Now as they went on their way, he
entered a certain village, where a woman named Martha welcomed him into her
home. She had a sister named Mary, who sat at the Lord’s feet and listened to
what he was saying. But Martha was distracted by her many tasks; so she came to
him and asked, ‘Lord, do you not care that my sister has left me to do all the
work by myself? Tell her then to help me.’But the Lord answered her, ‘Martha,
Martha, you are worried and distracted by many things; there is need of only one
thing. Mary has chosen the better part, which will not be taken away from her.’””
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
28-29/2022
Helpless, But Hopeful/Elias Bejjani/November 27/2022
Lebanon’s courthouses suffer from judicial paralysis
Congress delegation meets Mikati, Berri, Bou Habib in Beirut
Report: Western, Arab officials to visit Beirut soon
Mikati says Berri, Franjieh would make 'a successful duo'
Over 10 MPs file appeal against 2022 state budget law
Kataeb denies alleged meeting with Hezbollah amid conflicting reports
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has pledged that Damascus will continue to back
Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
28-29/2022
Qatar Forced to Allow Israelis at World Cup
Iranian General Acknowledges over 300 Dead in Unrest
Report: Austrian-Iranian Gets Medical Leave from Iran Prison
Iran Says It Has Proof that Western States Were Involved in Protests
Iran summons German envoy after Rights Council vote
Turkish Forces Nearly Ready for a Syria Ground Operation, Say Officials
Türkiye, Egypt to Re-Appoint Ambassadors ‘in Coming Months’, Says Cavusoglu
Ben-Gvir Says He Will Do ‘Everything’ to Change Situation in Al-Aqsa
Barzani Discusses Border Security in Baghdad
Who are the Iranian-Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq?
Somalia: 100 Shabab Militants Killed in Military Operation
14 years on, NATO to renew a vow to Ukraine
Russia will not halt strikes until it runs out of missiles, Ukraine's Zelenskiy
says
Exclusive-U.S., Russia have used 'deconfliction' line once so far during Ukraine
war -source
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
28-29/2022
Was San Francisco Election Official Not Rehired Because He Wasn't
'Diverse' Enough?/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/November 28, 2022
Are Muslims “Invading” the United Kingdom?/Raymond Ibrahim/November 28, 2022
Rishi Sunak Is Trapped in a Tory Civil War/Martin Ivens/Bloomberg/November,28/2022
Between the fear of a failed state and Iranian popular hope/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab
News/November 28, 2022
Iranian regime has already been morally defeated/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/November 28, 2022
November
28-29/2022
Helpless, But Hopeful
Elias Bejjani/November 27/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/10506/elias-bejjanii-am-weak-and-helpless-but-hopeful/
It is true I am helpless in seeing positives changes in the life
of a person that I dearly love and care about.
It is true that I am helpless in giving this person a hand to pull him out from
tons of his devastating self inflicted problems, because he does not want help,
and does not seek it, and does not accept it.
It is true too that all other involved persons who love this individual and care
much about him did all give up, and demand constantly that I do the same.
It is true that I might not be able to save this person from himself not now or
in any time in the future.
But in spite of all these sad, traumatic, disappointing and unfortunate actual
facts, I am still hopeful positive and solidly believe that Al Mighty God, our
loving father is hearing my genuine prayers and He one day shall save this
person and shower on him His generous graces of love, faith, forgiveness and
wisdom.
The Holy Bible teaches us that when we pray with confidence, faith and believe
in God’s mercy and love, He definitely hears our prayers and responds. But His
response might be unseen or unidentified by us due to the fact His Wisdom and
His ways are very different from ours.
I strongly believe that this sick person will be cured one day, and that
Almighty God is listening to my prayers and to the prayers of all those who
share my concerns, pains, agony and my heavy burden.
I am more than sure that Our Father, Almighty God shall help this sick person
and take him out off the evil traps of temptation to which currently he a prey.
Jesus Christ teaches us that the righteous can not and must not lose hope no
matter what the hardships are. How could they lose hope while they are still
breathing and full of life?
The righteous live on hope even when they pass away and physically depart this
earthly world and sleep on the hope of resurrection.
In God’s Love and Mercy I believe, on His shoulders I lay my burdens, and in His
hand I leave all my problems.
Amen
Lebanon’s courthouses suffer from judicial paralysis
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 28/2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s courthouses are paralysed after the country’s judges’ strike
entered its fifth month. This prolonged inactivity has had a severe impact
on the daily lives of Lebanese people, with hundreds of pending files and
detainees awaiting prosecution. More than 450 of the 560 judges in Lebanon have
stopped working, with the rest continuing in military courts or for humanitarian
reasons. The strike centers around demands for salary revisions after the
collapse of the Lebanese pound, as well as improvements in working conditions.
In addition to the collapse of the pound, political interference has caused
significant displeasure among many in the judiciary, contributing to the desire
to strike. “People are greatly affected,” said Imad Al-Masri, a lawyer
specializing in criminal proceedings. “As lawyers, we must defend people’s
interests, along with our personal interests, as we are on the verge of
bankruptcy and our salary is zero.” He stated that lawyers in Lebanon are unable
file complaints to release detainees, noting that preventive detention is
limited to two months. “There are humanitarian cases where people have to be
released. Some (of those who) were arrested due to misdemeanors … can be
released in days at the stroke of a pen. However, they have been held for months
in inappropriate conditions and no one is taking action.”Al-Masri added: “Had it
not been for the security agencies that are taking action in prosecuting
criminals, we would be governed by the law of the jungle.”Another lawyer, who
did not reveal his name, said: “Court hearings in a criminal court (are taking
place) without a representative of the Public Prosecution office. This court is
considered illegal. “Some judges suddenly choose not to suspend their activity
and decide to open files that are classified as having political coverage, such
as in the bribery file of the directory of road traffic.” The lawyer added that
he tried to file an urgent complaint last week before the Cassation Public
Prosecution about an attempt to kill one of his clients. However, the complaint
was rejected, and when he added that the suspect might kill his client, the
prosecution responded that their hands were tied. The judges’ strike has led
many citizens to lose trust in the judiciary, with some taking matters into
their own hands.
A security source noted that cases of fraud and physical abuse had increased in
the last months, and that offenders are no longer afraid since courthouses are
not taking any action. Stories of public prosecutors not receiving people’s
complaints or legal proceedings, and police stations not receiving directives to
arrest suspects, meanwhile, are common. Judges who have suspended their
activities have been receiving $1,500 for three months, in addition to their
salary, while continuing their strike. However, this is covered by the Support
Fund for Judges, a judicial source told Arab News, as a temporary aid while
demands for a salary review continue. The Lebanese Judges Association declared
last month that “responsibility, anger and blame should be directed at the
political authorities. “The case of judges suspending their work was not given
any importance, thus leaving the people and judges to suffer humiliation, as if
justice is not, and never was a priority,” said the association. Arab News
learnt that the Lebanese central bank, the Banque du Liban, had agreed to give
judges their salary at the rate of 8,000 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar,
subject to the approval of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. At current
rates, though, judges’ monthly salaries are worth between 1.6 million pounds
($40) and 8.2 million dependent on rank and experience. These salaries ranged
between $400 and $5,000 per month before the collapse of the pound. The increase
of the public sector’s wages within the 2022 budget, meanwhile, did not include
judges. A judicial source told Arab News: “There is no electricity, no paper and
no pens (at the courts). We sometimes use both sides of a sheet of paper and a
phone’s flashlight to search files due to the diesel shortage and the
generators’ intermittent power. “Consequently, there is neither heating, nor
cooling or maintenance, and garbage is piling up in some justice palaces. “There
are attempts to interfere politically in judicial files. How can one work in
such conditions, in addition to the extremely low salaries?”
Congress delegation meets Mikati, Berri, Bou Habib in
Beirut
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
A delegation from the U.S. Congress headed by lawmaker Mark Takano, and
Congressmen Colin Allred and Katie Porter, arrived Monday in Beirut. The
American delegation met with Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib
Mikati and caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib. It will also meet with
Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, in its one-day visit, media reports said.
Report: Western, Arab officials to visit Beirut soon
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
Senior western officials, as well as officials from the Gulf countries and the
Arab League, may soon visit Beirut, al-Joumhouria newspaper said Monday. The
daily reported that the western diplomatic drive would include visits from
senior officials from France and the Vatican. Meanwhile, a delegation from the
U.S. Congress arrived Monday in Beirut and met with Speaker Nabih Berri,
caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah
Bou Habib.
Mikati says US yet to answer his inquiry about Iranian fuel
grant
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said that he has “asked the Americans”
about the issue of the Iranian fuel grant for Lebanon and that he is yet to
receive an “official answer.”“I do not accept to subject Lebanon to any
sanctions, whatever they may be,” Mikati added, in an interview on LBCI
television.
Separately, Mikati said that Algerian company Sonatrach is willing to supply
Lebanon with fuel but noted that “there are problems related to legal matters
and work is ongoing to resolve them.”As for the issue of the electricity
regulatory commission, Mikati said caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad has
“surprised” him by “announcing the reception of applications from six
candidates, whereas it was needed to announce five candidates for the regulatory
commission (a president and four members).”“I sent a memo in this regard to
Fayyad, because that entails a clear violation of the law, and I’m dealing with
a political group whose concern is obstruction,” the PM added. He also warned
that “without a regulatory commission for electricity there can be no funding
from the World Bank for importing electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt.”
Mikati says Berri, Franjieh would make 'a successful duo'
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has lauded presidential candidate Suleiman
Franjieh. In an interview with LBCI, Mikati said that Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri and al-Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh would make "a successful duo," if
the latter gets elected as president. "Franjieh is capable of repairing all
matters and can be open to the Arab world," Mikati said, adding that he can also
unite the Lebanese and protect the national interests.
Over 10 MPs file appeal against 2022 state budget law
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
MP Paula Yacoubian on Monday filed an appeal before the Constitutional Council
against the 2022 state budget law. The appeal carried the signatures of more
than ten lawmakers. “What’s being published (in the official gazette) is
different than what is being ratified in parliament. This happened with the
state budget and the course must be rectified,” Yacoubian said. “The hike in the
salaries of the public sector must be accompanied by reforms, most importantly
axing the illegal employments,” she added.
Report: Qatar suggests Army chief as presidential candidate
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
Qatari officials have suggested to Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil
the name of Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as a presidential candidate as France
got closer to announcing its support for Aoun, al-Akhbar newspaper reported.
The daily said Monday that France's endorsement for Aoun has been confirmed.
Backed by Riyadh and Washington, France is now close to announcing its support
for the army chief's candidacy, al-Akhbar had previously said. Bassil had been
officially invited to attend the World Cup in Qatar. He would also resume
political meetings that he had started during his latest visit to the country,
media reports said.
Kataeb denies alleged meeting with Hezbollah amid conflicting reports
Naharnet/November 28, 2022
Kataeb Secretary-General Serge Dagher denied Monday an alleged meeting with
Hezbollah, after a local media report had claimed a meeting between
representatives from Hezbollah and the Kataeb party in Beirut's southern suburb.
A Hezbollah MP, Hezbollah political bureau member Mohammad Khansa, and Dagher
have attended a meeting at the Kataeb's request, al-Akhbar newspaper said, in
remarks published Monday. "We have no intention to have a dialogue with
Hezbollah, so far," Dagher said, adding that "in case we wanted to communicate
with them, we would announce it." Al-Akhbar claimed that although al-Kataeb
sources have denied it, other sources have confirmed the meeting. "It happened,
and it was not a bilateral nor a secret dialogue, but rather a communication in
order to discuss the country's affairs, especially the presidential file," the
daily quoted its sources as saying. Later on Monday, sources close to Hezbollah
re-confirmed to al-Jadeed TV that the meeting took place around ten days ago at
the Kataeb's request, specifying that it was held in the Hadath area. "The
meeting between Khansa and Dagher was one of a series of meetings, some of which
are being held in Beirut's southern suburb, with the aim of holding dialogue
among the various Lebanese forces," the sources added.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has pledged that Damascus
will continue to back Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Naharnet/November 27/2022
“We have supported Hezbollah, we are still supporting it and we will continue to
support it, because it is a strategic ally for us,” Assad repotedly said in an
interview with a number of journalists. Moreover, Assad voiced conern over
Lebanon and its future amid the current situation, describing the neighboring
country as “Syria’s main flank.” “Stability in it is very important for Syria,”
Assad added. Hezbollah has sent thousands of fighters to bolster Assad’s forces
in the face of the revolt that erupted in 2011. The Syrian leader’s remarks
coincide with remarks by Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said
Saturday that “Iran’s active policy in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq led to foiling
America’s plot in these countries.”“We will continue our support for the
resistance forces in the region, Lebanon and Palestine,” Khamenei added.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
28-29/2022
Qatar Forced to Allow Israelis at World Cup
FDD/November 28/2022
Latest Developments
Thousands of Israelis are expected to visit Qatar this month as the Gulf nation
hosts the World Cup. Despite the influx of visitors, there are strong
indications that the tournament will not herald a diplomatic breakthrough
between the two countries. Rather, the developments suggest a pragmatic Qatar
willing to do what is required to host the world’s biggest sporting event.
Expert Analysis
“Qatar’s pragmatism vis-à-vis Israel should not be confused for tolerance or
diplomatic outreach. Doha’s obsession with the prestige of hosting soccer’s
biggest tournament has forced the Gulf country, which doesn’t have diplomatic
relations with the Jewish state, to be reasonable and allow Israeli visitors.” –
David May, FDD Research Manager
Sporting Bodies Crack Down on Discrimination
In recent years, international sporting bodies have cracked down on
discriminatory practices, especially as it pertains to Israel. The International
Judo Federation has levied significant penalties on Iran for forcing its
athletes to forfeit or lose intentionally rather than face Israeli opponents.
FINA, swimming’s governing body, formally warned Qatar for refusing to display
Israel’s flag or refer to Israel by its name during the 2013 Swimming World Cup.
Since then, when hosting international sporting events, Qatar has played
Israel’s national anthem and displayed its flag.
Increased Israeli-Qatari Cooperation
FIFA required Qatar to allow Israelis to visit the country as part of the terms
for hosting the games. To accommodate the wave of Israeli tourists and deal with
any possible emergencies, Qatar has allowed Israeli consular staff to be present
during the tournament. And in a first, Qatar is allowing direct flights from Tel
Aviv to Doha.
Continued Hostility to Israel
On a less promising note, Qatar reneged on its promise to allow Jewish prayer
spaces, according to the World Jewish Congress. Meanwhile, Israeli officials are
instructing their citizens not to openly display their nationality during the
tournament for security concerns. While in Qatar, Israeli reporters have faced
hostility from locals and visiting Arabs.
Qatari Support for Terrorists
Qatar contributes $360 million to $480 million annually to subsidize the
U.S.-designated terrorist group Hamas, which remains committed to Israel’s
destruction. Meanwhile, Doha has hosted top leaders of Al Qaeda, the Taliban,
Hamas, and other extremist groups.
Qatar is a Controversial World Cup Host
Qatar allegedly secured the right to host the tournament through nearly $1
billion in bribes. Migrant workers, more than 6,500 of whom have died since Doha
was awarded hosting rights, face an exploitative sponsorship system in the Gulf
country. After paying a large sum to work in Qatar, impoverished workers are
subject to deportation if they do not sign contracts with their employers.
Additionally, homosexual acts can carry a seven-year prison sentence in Qatar.
There have been several reports of fans having rainbow-colored items, signs of
LGBT solidarity, seized by stadium security.
Iranian General Acknowledges over 300 Dead in Unrest
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
An Iranian general on Monday acknowledged that more than 300 people have been
killed in the unrest surrounding nationwide protests, giving the first official
word on casualties in two months. That estimate is considerably lower than the
toll reported by Human Rights Activists in Iran, a US-based group that has been
closely tracking the protests since they erupted after the Sept. 16 death of a
young woman being held by the country's morality police. The activist group says
451 protesters and 60 security forces have been killed since the start of the
unrest and that more than 18,000 people have been detained. The nationwide
protests were sparked by the woman's death but rapidly escalated into calls for
the overthrow of the theocracy that has governed Iran since its 1979 revolution.
Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the aerospace division of the
paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, was quoted by a website close to the Guard as
saying that more than 300 people have been killed, including “martyrs,” an
apparent reference to security forces. He also suggested that many of those
killed were ordinary Iranians not involved in the protests. He did not provide
an exact figure or say where his estimate came from.
Hajizadeh reiterated the official claim that the protests have been fomented by
Iran's enemies, including Western countries, without providing evidence. The
protesters say they are fed up after decades of social and political repression,
and deny having any foreign agenda. The protests have spread across the country
and drawn support from artists, athletes and other public figures. The niece of
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently called on people to pressure their
governments to cut ties with Tehran over its violent suppression of the
demonstrations. In a video posted online by her France-based brother, Farideh
Moradkhani urged “conscientious people of the world” to support Iranian
protesters. The video was shared online this week after Moradkhani's reported
arrest on Nov. 23, according to the activist group. Moradkhani is a long-time
activist whose late father was an opposition figure married to Khamenei's sister
and is the closest member of the supreme leader's family to be arrested. The
branch of the family has opposed Khamenei for decades and Moradkhani has been
imprisoned on previous occasions for her activism. “I ask the conscientious
people of the world to stand by us and ask their governments not to react with
empty words and slogans but with real action and stop any dealings with this
regime,” she said in her video statement. The protests, now in their third
month, have faced a brutal crackdown by Iranian security forces using live
ammunition, rubber bullets and tear gas to suppress demonstrations. Despite the
crackdown, demonstrations are ongoing and scattered across cities. The unrest
was sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody in Tehran
for violating the country’s strict dress code. It has quickly morphed into one
of the most serious challenges to Iran's establishment in more than four
decades. Iran refuses to cooperate with a fact-finding mission that the UN Human
Rights Council recently voted to establish. “Iran will not engage in any
cooperation, whatsoever, with the political committee,” Foreign Ministry
spokesman Nasser Kanaani said.
Report: Austrian-Iranian Gets Medical Leave from Iran
Prison
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Iran has released a 76-year-old dual Iranian-Austrian citizen from prison for
health reasons, the Austria Press Agency reported Monday. APA quoted the
Austrian foreign ministry confirming that Massud Mossaheb was given indefinite
medical leave. The ministry said “intensive diplomatic efforts” had led to his
release, which was first reported by Austrian daily Die Presse. APA reported
that Mossaheb must remain in Iran and report to authorities every other week.
Mossaheb was arrested on suspicion of espionage in early 2019 during a visit to
Tehran. He was subsequently sentenced to 10 years in prison. Two other Austrians
remain imprisoned in Iran, APA reported.
Iran Football Legend Daei Targeted by ‘Threats’ after Backing Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Iranian football legend Ali Daei on Monday said he had been targeted by threats
after backing ongoing protests in Iran triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini.
Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin, died on September 16, three days
after her arrest by the notorious morality police while visiting Tehran with her
younger brother. Daei, whose 109 goals at international level was long
unsurpassed until he was overtaken by Cristiano Ronaldo, played in Iran's
legendary 1998 2-1 World Cup victory against the United States. He decided not
be go to the World Cup in Qatar due to the Iranian authorities' deadly crackdown
on the protests. "I have received numerous threats against myself and my family
in recent months and days from some organizations, medias and unknown
individuals," Daei said in a statement on Instagram. "I was taught humanity,
honor, patriotism and freedom.... What do you want to achieve with such
threats?" he added. In the post, Daei also called for the "unconditional
release" of prisoners arrested in the crackdown on the protests in Iran. Daei
earlier this month said he would not be travelling to Qatar for the World Cup,
despite having an invitation from the organizers, saying he wanted to be "with
my compatriots and express sympathy with all those who have lost loved ones" in
the ongoing crackdown. His comments come as Iran prepares to face the United
States on Tuesday, in a repeat of the 1998 showdown, with Team Melli seeking to
reach the final stages of a World Cup for the first time in its history. There
has been intense scrutiny on football as the protests continue in Iran, posing
the biggest challenge to the regime since the 1979 revolution. Daei himself
reportedly had his passport confiscated when returning to Iran in the early
phase of the protests but subsequently had it returned. Prominent Iranian
footballer of Kurdish origin Voria Ghafouri, who has been outspoken in his
support of the protests, was arrested last week. Iranian media reports said he
had been released on bail. But Norway-based Kurdish rights group Hengaw denied
this and said he had been transferred from the west of Iran to jail in Tehran.
Iran Says It Has Proof that Western States Were Involved in
Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Iran has proof that Western nations were involved in protests that have swept
the country, the foreign ministry said on Monday. The
protests, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini
after her arrest for "inappropriate attire", pose one of the strongest
challenges to the country's clerical establishment since the 1979 Islamic
Revolution, Reuters reported. "We have specific information proving that the US,
Western countries and some of the American allies have had a role in the
protests," ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani added.
Iran summons German envoy after Rights Council vote
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Iran on Monday summoned the German ambassador to protest last week's U.N. Human
Rights Council decision, based on a resolution co-sponsored by Berlin, to probe
Iran's response to nationwide protests. It is the third time since the
demonstrations started more than two months ago that Tehran has called in
Berlin's representative to the Islamic republic. The nationwide protests
followed the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, after her arrest
by morality police for an alleged breach of Iran's strict dress rules for women.
At an urgent session requested by Germany and Iceland, the United Nations'
highest rights body voted on Thursday to create a high-level investigation into
Iran's deadly crackdown. The state news agency IRNA said Iran's Ministry of
Foreign Affairs had called in Germany's ambassador, Hans-Udo Muzel, "following
the initiative of Germany to hold a special session" of the U.N. rights council
"about the recent events in our country."Iran on Friday said it "totally
rejects" the "useless" resolution and would not recognise the fact-finding
mission created by the rights council. The foreign ministry reiterated this
argument on Monday. "The hasty and instrumentalized use of the human rights
question and the adoption of political approaches to pressure independent
countries should definitively be condemned," ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani
said at his weekly press conference. "These actions will not contribute to the
promotion of human rights."In late October Iran's foreign ministry summoned
Muzel to protest comments by German officials which "incite riots" in the
Islamic republic, IRNA reported previously. Earlier this month, the ministry
again called in Berlin's representative following remarks by German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz who asked: "What kind of government are you that shoots at its own
citizens?"An Iranian foreign ministry official condemned those remarks and
protested Germany's "destructive attitude". Iran labels the protests "riots"
which it says were encouraged by Western countries. Other ambassadors, including
from France and Britain, have also been called in over the past few weeks.
During Thursday's session in Geneva, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights
Volker Turk said more than 300 people had been killed since Amini's death.
Turkish Forces Nearly Ready for a Syria Ground
Operation, Say Officials
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Türkiye’s army needs just a few days to be ready for a ground incursion into
northern Syria and such a decision may come at a cabinet meeting on Monday,
Turkish officials said, as Turkish forces bombarded a Kurdish group across the
border.
Howitzers fired daily from Türkiye have struck Kurdish People's Protection Units
(YPG) targets for a week, while warplanes have carried out airstrikes. The
escalation comes after a deadly bomb attack in Istanbul two weeks ago that
Ankara blamed on the YPG. The YPG has denied involvement in the bombing and has
responded at times to the cross-border attacks with mortar shelling. "The
Turkish Armed Forces needs just a few days to become almost fully ready," one
senior official said, adding that Türkiye-allied Syrian opposition fighters were
ready for such an operation just a few days after the Nov. 13 Istanbul bomb."It
won't take long for the operation to begin," he said. "It depends only on the
president giving the word."Türkiye has previously launched military incursions
in Syria against the YPG, regarding it as a wing of the outlawed Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK), which Türkiye, the United States and European Union
designate a terrorist group. The PKK has also denied carrying out the Istanbul
attack, in which six people were killed on a busy pedestrian avenue. President
Tayyip Erdogan has Türkiye would launch a land operation when convenient to
secure its southern border. He will chair a cabinet meeting at 3:30 pm (1230
GMT). "All the preparations are complete. It's now a political decision,"
another Turkish official told Reuters, also requesting anonymity ahead of the
meeting. Erdogan said back in May that Türkiye would soon launch a military
operation against the YPG in Syria, but such an operation did not materialize at
that time.
Operation ‘inevitable’
The first Turkish official said a ground operation, targeting the areas of
Manbij, Kobani and Tel Rifat, was inevitable to link up the areas brought under
the control of Türkiye and its Syrian allies with incursions since 2016. Ankara
had been in contact with Moscow and Washington about its military activities,
the person added. The United States has told NATO member Türkiye it has serious
concerns that an escalation would affect the goal of fighting ISIS militants in
Syria. Russia asked Türkiye to refrain from a full-scale ground offensive. It
has supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country's 11-year war,
while Ankara has backed opposition factions fighting to topple him. On Monday,
the defense ministry said Türkiye’s army had "neutralized" 14 YPG militants
preparing to carry out attacks in Syrian areas under Türkiye’s control. It
typically uses the term to describe casualties. The defense ministry said on
Saturday three Turkish soldiers had been killed in northern Iraq, where the
military has been conducting an operation against the PKK since April. Defense
Minister Hulusi Akar, having travelled to the Iraqi border area, was quoted as
telling military commanders on Sunday that Türkiye will "complete the tasks" of
the mission.
Türkiye, Egypt to Re-Appoint Ambassadors ‘in Coming Months’, Says Cavusoglu
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022 -
Türkiye and Egypt may restore full diplomatic ties and re-appoint ambassadors
mutually "in coming months," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on
Monday. Ankara and Cairo may re-start diplomatic consultations led by deputy
foreign ministers as part of a normalization process "soon," Cavusoglu told
reporters in Ankara. After years of tension, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan
shook hands with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Qatar this
month in what was described by the Egyptian presidency as a new start in
bilateral relations.
Ben-Gvir Says He Will Do ‘Everything’ to Change Situation in Al-Aqsa
Ramallah – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022 -
Itamar Ben-Gvir, a leader in the Israeli far-right Otzma Yehudit party and who
will be Israel's national security minister in the upcoming government, has
vowed to change the status quo in Al-Aqsa mosque. Ben-Gvir also pledged changing
shooting regulations against Palestinians and the legalization of settlements.
Speaking to a Hebrew radio station on Sunday, Ben-Gvir responded to a direct
question on whether he would allow Jews to pray in the Temple Mount by saying
that he would do everything to prevent “racist policies.”The racist policies
Ben-Gvir was referring to are those that prevent Jews from performing public
prayers in Al-Aqsa’s compound. Ben-Gvir moved on to reiterate that he would work
to change regulations on shooting Palestinians, describing the current
directives as “stupid,” because they leave Israeli soldiers and police
vulnerable. He considered that attackers should be shot even when they do not
pose a threat. “Instead of waiting, those carrying a Molotov cocktail should be
shot on the spot,” said Ben-Gvir. He also stressed that he would work to change
the reality of illegal settlements. “In a few months, we will witness
improvement and change, and we will achieve several results,” said Ben-Gvir.
Among other things, Ben-Gvir said he would examine whether a law would be passed
in the Knesset to deport the families of those who attacked Israelis. Ben-Gvir's
statements came two days after his party concluded a controversial agreement
with the Likud party headed by Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu. By
virtue of that agreement, Ben-Gvir will become the minister of national security
with expanded powers. Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki said that the
Palestinians will launch a broad political movement to confront the upcoming
ministerial coalition in Israel. Al-Maliki confirmed that Palestinian leadership
has sent messages to international bodies, especially the European Union,
warning against the consequences of Ben-Gvir assuming ministerial positions in
the next Israeli government.
Barzani Discusses Border Security in Baghdad
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
President of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region Nechirvan Barzani visited Baghdad to
discuss the outstanding issues, including the importance of strengthening the
border security of the Region and Iraq, in light of repeated attacks from
neighbors Iran and Türkiye. Barzani’s visit to Baghdad - his second in a week -
sought to “complete the agenda of meetings with Iraqi political leaders,” a
statement by the Region’s presidency said on Sunday. According to the statement,
Barzani had canceled the second day of his visit to Baghdad last week to attend
the funeral of victims that lost their lives following a gas explosion in Duhok
on Monday night. “Barzani is scheduled to complete the visit to Baghdad and hold
a series of meetings with a number of other leaders and senior Iraqi officials,”
the statement clarified. An official government source revealed that “Baghdad
and Erbil agreed to form a joint security committee which would discuss all
files with the Iranian and Turkish sides.” Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mohammed
Shia al-Sudani is set to visit Tehran on Tuesday. Barzani and the Iraqi National
Security Advisor Qasim Al-Araji discussed the security and political situation
in the country, the source told Asharq Al-Awsat. “Barzani, during his meeting
with Al-Araji, showed great flexibility in authorizing Baghdad to form a higher
committee,” they added. “In all its meetings, the Region confirms with Iraqi
leaders that it is part of Iraq, and therefore it requests a position from
Baghdad regarding the attacks it is being subjected to,” said the source, who
spoke on condition of anonymity. Moreover, the source pointed out that the
Kurdistan region supports any step taken by Baghdad towards the Turkish and
Iranian opposition so long that it is based on the Iraqi constitution. This was
affirmed by Barzani during his meeting with Al-Araji. The Iraqi constitution
prohibits Iraq from being used as a corridor or a springboard for aggression
against any of its neighboring countries.
Who are the Iranian-Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq?
Naharnet/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Iranian-Kurdish rebel groups have for decades sought refuge in northern Iraq's
autonomous Kurdistan region, but they have recently come under fresh fire amid
weeks of protests in the neighboring Islamic republic. In the wake of
demonstrations sparked by the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini -- an
Iranian woman of Kurdish origin -- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has
launched missile and drone strikes on the bases of Kurdish groups in northern
Iraq. At least 17 people have been killed in these strikes since September,
according to an AFP tally based on reported tolls. After previously waging an
insurgency against the clerical state in Iran, the groups have largely abandoned
combat activities in recent years to focus on political campaigning for
long-sought rights for Kurds.
Long-standing opposition
Since the 1980s, Iranian Kurdish factions have made a home for themselves in
Iraqi Kurdistan -- often with the blessing of former dictator Saddam Hussein.
Tehran classes these groups as "terrorist" and "separatist" organisations,
accusing them of launching attacks on Iranian forces. But after decades of armed
insurrection, they have heavily scaled back any military activity, while
continuing to train fighters at bases in Iraqi Kurdistan's mountainous regions.
The oldest is the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), which has
repeatedly denied using Iraqi territory to launch attacks on Iran.
Rather, it says its political leadership is headquartered in Iraq's Kurdistan
region. The party "fights to realise the national rights of Kurds through a
federal and democratic Iran", according to its website. The second-largest is
the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, founded in 1969 by intellectuals and
students in Tehran and Kurdish cities in Iran. Another target of the
cross-border strikes is the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), whose fighters were
among the forces that helped drive out the Islamic State group from its former
strongholds in Iraq. Also based in Iraq is the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK),
affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK has waged an
insurgency in Turkey and is considered a terrorist group by Ankara and its
allies. Despite a fragile ceasefire in 2011, sporadic clashes have pitted the
Kurdish rebels against Iranian forces.
Political struggle
The groups have supported demonstrations that broke out in Iran following the
death of Mahsa Amini, after her arrest by the morality police for allegedly
violating the Islamic republic's strict dress code for women. Much of the
activism has shifted to social media, where the Iranian-Kurdish factions in Iraq
have been vocal in their support of the protests, sharing videos and relaying
calls for general strikes. Before the demonstrations kicked off, there were
frequent border crossings, says Adel Bakawan, director of the French Research
Center on Iraq (CFRI). When these factions "wanted to carry out military
action", they would send smaller units across the border to Iran, he added.
Today, the "PDKI and Komala are doing everything to avoid militarizing the
protests", as Tehran could use this to "justify" an even harsher crackdown, he
said. The groups have long denounced discrimination faced by Iran's Kurdish
minority -- about 10 million of the 83-million-strong population -- who adhere
to Sunni Islam rather than the Shiite branch prevalent in the country. Iranian
Kurds complain of a lack of local political representation and an absence of
economic development in the country's Kurdish regions. Authorities have also
banned them from teaching their language in schools.
Iranian anger
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani has previously stressed that the
Islamic republic wants "no threat to Iran's security from Iraqi territory".
Iranian officials, who describe the recent protests as "riots", have accused
Kurdish rebel groups of participating in the unrest and of crossing into Iran to
stage attacks. "Iran is looking for a scapegoat," said analyst Fabrice Balanche.
"The Iranians want to portray the protesters as being manipulated by external
forces."
Iraqi Kurdish ties
Since the 1990s, an agreement between northern Iraq's Kurdish authorities and
the rebel groups has guaranteed their right to reside in the autonomous region
-- provided they refrain from any combat activity to avoid compromising ties
with Tehran. Kurds in Iran and Iraq speak the same Sorani dialect, and many
families straddle both sides of the border. Iranian day-labourers regularly
cross the frontier to seek better-paid work in Iraq. Even veteran Kurdish
politician Massud Barzani, considered a founding figure of the autonomous
Kurdistan region in Iraq, was born in the short-lived Republic of Mahabad, an
unrecognised Kurdish statelet which sprung up with Soviet support in 1946.
It existed for less than a year before Iran reasserted control.
Somalia: 100 Shabab Militants Killed in Military Operation
Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 November, 2022
Somalia’s government said Saturday that a military operation in the country’s
Lower and Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions killed more than 100 extremist
al-Qaeda linked al-Shabab militants. Somalia’s deputy information minister
Abdirahman Yusuf Omar Adala said the operation took place on the outskirts of
the village of El-Dhere at the border of the Lower and Middle Shabelle regions
and in the central province of Hiran, killing more than 100 al-Shabab fighters,
including 10 “ringleaders.”Speaking to the media in the capital, Mogadishu, he
added that the operation was conducted by the country’s army, backed by locals
and international partners. “The operation targeted more than 200 al-Shabab
militants, including 12 leaders, who were gathering for an attack on the Somali
military,” Yusuf stated. He welcomed the increase in the number of Shabab
fighters who defected from the movement and surrendered to the army since the
start of military operations last August, without specifying their number. Al-Shabab
had claimed responsibility of an attack against an army convoy in the Ceelasha
Biyaha district on the outskirts of Mogadishu on Sunday. Twelve soldiers were
killed and 20 others were wounded in the attack. Al-Shabab first emerged in
2004. The group has launched several terrorist attacks in Somalia, killing
hundreds of people. Government forces, supported by clan militias, have made a
number of battlefield gains against al-Shabab in the last three months,
regaining territory long held by the group.
14 years on, NATO to renew a vow to Ukraine
Associated Press/November 28, 2022
NATO returns on Tuesday to the scene of one of its most controversial decisions,
intent on repeating its vow that Ukraine — now suffering through the 10th month
of a war against Russia — will join the world's biggest military alliance one
day. NATO foreign ministers will gather for two days at the Palace of the
Parliament in the Romanian capital Bucharest. It was there in April 2008 that
U.S. President George W. Bush persuaded his allies to open NATO's door to
Ukraine and Georgia, over vehement Russian objections. "NATO welcomes Ukraine's
and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today
that these countries will become members of NATO," the leaders said in a
statement. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was at the summit, described
this as "a direct threat" to Russia's security. About four months later, Russian
forces invaded Georgia. Some experts describe the decision in Bucharest as a
massive error that left Russia feeling cornered by a seemingly ever-expanding
NATO. NATO counters that it doesn't pressgang countries into joining, and that
some requested membership to seek protection from Russia — as Finland and Sweden
are doing now. More than 14 years on, NATO will pledge this week to support
Ukraine long-term as it defends itself against Russian aerial, missile and
ground attacks — many of which have struck power grids and other civilian
infrastructure, depriving millions of people of electricity and heating. "NATO
will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. We will not back
down," the organization's top civilian official, Secretary-General Jens
Stoltenberg, vowed last week. North Macedonia and Montenegro have joined the
U.S.-led organization in recent years. With this, Stoltenberg said, "we have
demonstrated that NATO's door is open and that it is for NATO allies and
aspirant countries to decide on membership. This is also the message to
Ukraine." This gathering in Bucharest is likely to see NATO make fresh pledges
of non-lethal support to Ukraine: fuel, electricity generators, medical
supplies, winter equipment and drone jamming devices. Individual allies are also
likely to announce fresh supplies of military equipment for Ukraine — chiefly
the air defense systems that Kyiv so desperately seeks to protect its skies.
NATO as an organization will not offer such supplies, to avoid being dragged
into a wider war with nuclear-armed Russia.
But the ministers, along with their Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, will
also look further afield. "Over the longer term we will help Ukraine transition
from Soviet-era equipment to modern NATO standards, doctrine and training,"
Stoltenberg said. This will not only improve Ukraine's armed forces and help
them to better integrate, it will also meet some of the conditions for
membership. That said, Ukraine will not join NATO anytime soon. With the Crimean
Peninsula annexed, and Russian troops and pro-Moscow separatists holding parts
of the south and east, it's not clear what Ukraine's borders would even look
like. Many of the 30 allies believe the focus now must be uniquely on defeating
Russia. But even as economic pressure — high electricity and gas prices, plus
inflation, all exacerbated by the war — mounts on many allies, Stoltenberg would
not press Ukraine to enter into peace talks, and indeed NATO and European
diplomats say that Putin does not appear willing to come to the table. "Most
wars end with negotiations," he said. "But what happens at the negotiating table
depends on what happens on the battlefield. Therefore, the best way to increase
the chances for a peaceful solution is to support Ukraine."
The foreign ministers of Bosnia, Georgia and Moldova — three partners that NATO
says are under increasing Russian pressure — will also be in Bucharest.
Stoltenberg said NATO would "take further steps to help them protect their
independence, and strengthen their ability to defend themselves.
Russia will not halt strikes until it runs out of
missiles, Ukraine's Zelenskiy says
Tom Balmforth and Anthony Deutsch//KHERSON, Ukraine (Reuters)//November 28, 2022
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned Ukrainians to expect another brutal week of
cold and darkness ahead, predicting more Russian attacks on infrastructure that
would not cease until Moscow ran out of missiles.
Russia has been carrying out massive missile bombardments on Ukraine's energy
infrastructure roughly weekly since early October, with each barrage having
greater impact than the last as damage accumulates and a frigid winter sets in.
In an overnight video address, Zelenskiy said he expected new attacks
this week that could be as bad as last week's - the worst yet that left millions
of people with no heat, water or power. "We understand
that the terrorists are planning new strikes. We know this for a fact,"
Zelenskiy said. "And as long as they have missiles, they, unfortunately, will
not calm down." Kyiv says the attacks, which Russia
acknowledges target Ukrainian infrastructure, are intended to harm civilians,
making them a war crime. Moscow denies its intent is to hurt civilians but said
last week their suffering would not end unless Ukraine yielded to Russia's
demands, without spelling them out. In Kyiv, snow fell
and temperatures were hovering around freezing as millions in and around the
Ukrainian capital struggled with disruptions to electricity supply and central
heating caused by the waves of Russian air strikes.
National grid operator Ukrenergo said on Monday it had been forced to resume
regular emergency blackouts in areas across the country after a setback in its
race to repair energy infrastructure. Power units at
several power stations had to conduct emergency shutdowns and demand for
electricity has been rising as snowy winter weather has set in, a Ukrenergo
statement said. "Once the causes of the emergency
shutdowns are eliminated, the units will return to operation, which will reduce
the deficit in the power system and reduce the amount of restrictions for
consumers," it said. Along front lines in the east of
Ukraine the looming winter is ushering in a new phase of the conflict, after
several months of Russian retreats, with intense trench warfare along heavily
fortified positions.
With Russian forces having pulled back in the northeast and withdrawn across the
Dnipro River in the south, the front line on land is only around half the length
it was a few months ago, making it harder for Ukrainian forces to pinpoint
weakly defended stretches to attempt a new breakthrough.
Zelenskiy described heavy fighting west of the Russian-held eastern city of
Donetsk, where Moscow has focused its assault even as it has withdrawn troops
elsewhere, and both sides claim huge casualties with little change in positions.
In its evening update on Monday, Ukraine's armed forces General Staff
said Russia kept up heavy shelling of key targets Bakhmut and Avdiivka in
Donetsk province, and to the north bombarded areas around the towns of Kupiansk
and Lyman, both recaptured recently by Kyiv. On the
southern front, it said, Russian forces had reinforced positions in occupied
territory and were heavily shelling towns on the west bank of the Dnipro River,
including Kherson, abandoned by Moscow earlier this month.
It said Ukrainian forces had damaged a rail bridge north of the
Russian-occupied southern city of Melitopol that has been key to supplying
Russian forces dug in there.
Reuters could not independently verify battlefield reports.
NUCLEAR PLANT
The Kremlin denied Russia had any plans to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia
nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, which it has controlled since early in
the war near the front line on a reservoir on the Dnipro.
The head of Ukraine's nuclear power operator, Petro Kotkin, had said on
Sunday there were signs Russia might pull out. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov responded on Monday: "There's no need to look for signs where there are
none and cannot be any." Russia says it has annexed
the area and put the plant under the control of its nuclear power agency.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, has called for the plant and
surrounding area to be demilitarised to prevent a nuclear disaster.
In Kherson, which has lacked electricity and heat since Russian forces
abandoned it earlier this month, regional governor Yaroslav Yanushevych said 17%
of customers now had electricity. Other districts would be hooked up soon.
Russian forces who withdrew have been bombarding from across the river, killing
dozens of civilians. Liliia Khrystenko, 38, recounted
to Reuters how her parents were both killed last Thursday when their building
was hit while she was inside with her young son. "I
heard my father screaming, telling me to call an ambulance, because my mother
was wounded. But I couldn’t call an ambulance, because the (mobile) connection
was gone," she said through tears outside the building.
"I went outside with my child, and my mother was lying in the building
entrance, face down, covered in blood. And my father was sitting by her side,
saying he was going to die." Khystenko's mother's body
lay on the street for a day before being removed. Her father had been hit in the
liver by shrapnel and medics were unable to revive him in hospital.
On the diplomatic front, efforts to weaken Russia's ability to fund its
war in Ukraine faltered on Monday, when envoys of European Union governments
failed to agree on a price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, diplomats said.
Poland, they said, had insisted the cap be set lower than others wanted.
"There is no deal. The legal texts have now been agreed but Poland still can't
agree to the price," one said.
Exclusive-U.S., Russia have used 'deconfliction' line once
so far during Ukraine war -source
Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Mon, November 28, 2022
A communications line created between the militaries of the United States and
Russia at the start of Moscow's war against Ukraine has been used only once so
far, a U.S. official told Reuters. The official, who spoke on condition of
anonymity, said that the United States initiated a call through the "deconfliction"
line to communicate its concerns about Russian military operations near critical
infrastructure in Ukraine. Reuters is the first to report on the use of the
deconfliction line, beyond regular testing. Few details are known surrounding
the specific incident that led to the call on the line, which connects the U.S.
military's European Command and Russia's National Defense Management Center. The
official declined to elaborate but said it was not used when an errant missile
landed in NATO-member Poland on Nov. 15, killing two people. The blast was
likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile but Russia was ultimately
responsible because it started the war in late February, NATO said. Although the
U.S. official declined to specify which Russian activity raised the U.S. alarm,
there have been publicly acknowledged incidents involving Russian fighting
around critical Ukrainian infrastructure. These include Russian operations
around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's biggest, which is
under Russian control. Ukraine has also voiced concerns Russia might blow up the
Nova Kakhovka dam, which holds back an enormous reservoir in southern Ukraine.
Bursting the dam would send a wall of water flooding settlements below,
including towards the strategic regional capital Kherson, which Ukrainian forces
recaptured on Nov. 11. U.S.-Russia communications have been in the spotlight
since the start of Russia's invasion of its neighbor, given the grave risk that
a miscalculation by either side could cause a direct conflict between the
nuclear-armed nations.
SEVERAL WAYS TO COMMUNICATE
The deconfliction line is just one of several ways the U.S. and Russia
militaries still have to communicate. Other military channels include rare
high-level talks between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Shoigu. The top U.S. and Russian generals, U.S. Army General
Mark Milley and Russian General Valery Gerasimov, have also spoken on two
occasions since the war started, his office said. White House national security
adviser Jake Sullivan and CIA Director Bill Burns have also had contact with
Russian officials. Still, U.S.-Russia relations are at their lowest point since
the Cold War and the U.S. State Department said on Monday that Moscow postponed
talks in Cairo aimed at resuming nuclear weapons inspections. The Russian
foreign ministry confirmed the talks were postponed. Neither side provided a
reason. Asked for comment on the deconfliction line, the Pentagon said only that
it retained several channels to "discuss critical security issues with the
Russians during a contingency or emergency for the purposes of preventing
miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation.""We are encouraged by recent
senior DoD calls with Russian counterparts and believe continued dialogue is
critical," a Department of Defense spokesperson said. Neither Russia's embassy
in Washington nor its defense ministry in Moscow responded to requests for
comment.
NOT A 'COMPLAINT' LINE
When it was announced in March, the Pentagon said the deconfliction line was
created to avoid any inadvertent clashes in NATO airspace or on the ground.
"It's not meant to be an all-purpose complaint line where we can just pick up
the phone and register concerns about what Russia's doing in Ukraine," a senior
U.S. defense official said at the time. During the Cold War, the United States
and the Soviet Union maintained such hot lines at different levels. Alexander
Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow and a former senior Pentagon and
NATO official, said the latest deconfliction line was meant to focus on daily
operations - as opposed to the more strategic conversations between top
officials like Milley and Gerasimov. Vershbow drew a comparison to the far more
active deconfliction line for Syria, where U.S. and Russian military forces
sometimes operate in the same airspace or terrain. "We've seen this in Syria,
where having the direct operational channel can at least clarify intentions
during a fast-moving situation where maybe Washington is asleep," Vershbow told
Reuters. The deconfliction line is tested twice daily with calls conducted in
Russian, the U.S. official told Reuters. A Russian speaker from the U.S.
European Command initiates those calls out of Wiesbaden, Germany, the official
said. Wiesbaden is also the location of the Pentagon's new Security Assistance
Group-Ukraine, or SAG-U, which remotely supports the Kyiv government's defense
against Russian troops. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have
previously said that early in the conflict planners believed the deconfliction
line could be useful if the United States needed to evacuate Americans from
Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine. When the war began, the United States
thought Russia might be able to quickly capture Ukrainian territory, trapping
American citizens before they had a chance to leave. One official had speculated
it also could have been used if a Russian fighter jet chased a Ukrainian
aircraft into Polish airspace, or if a Russian missile crossed NATO airspace.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
28-29/2022
Was San Francisco Election Official Not Rehired
Because He Wasn't 'Diverse' Enough?
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/November 28, 2022
The City of San Francisco is a state actor that is constitutionally prohibited
from disqualifying job applicants on the basis of race. That is precisely what
occurred here, despite the phony claim that Arntz can reapply for his job.
There is one important benefit to the San Francisco decision — at least as
compared to university admissions decisions. The San Francisco panel did not try
to disguise the racial criteria they are employing, whereas most universities go
to great length to deny that race alone is often a dispositive factor in ranking
applicants. This will make it easier for the courts to hold San Francisco's
Arntz decision as a clear violation of the equal protection clause of the 14th
Amendment.
In the bad old days, race was often used to discriminate against Black
applicants. Today race is often used to discriminate in favor of Black
applicants. I guess that is some sort of progress. But real progress will be
achieved only if and when race is no longer a factor that trumps meritocracy.
Only then will Martin Luther King, Jr.'s dream of how his children and ours
should be judged become a reality.
San Francisco is essentially firing its elections director, John Arntz, because
he is apparently of the wrong race to satisfy their "racial equity plan." The
City of San Francisco is a state actor that is constitutionally prohibited from
disqualifying job applicants on the basis of race. That is precisely what
occurred here, despite the phony claim that Arntz can reapply for his job.
Pictured: A protest at San Francisco City Hall on July 20, 2020. John Arntz has
held the job of San Francisco's director of the Department of Elections for two
decades. He has been repeatedly praised for his excellent performance at this
increasingly important job — important because of so many election challenges
and doubts. Just two years ago, the election commission commended him for his
"incredible leadership." But now they are essentially firing him because he is
apparently of the wrong race to satisfy their "racial equity plan."
This is what he was told:
"Our decision wasn't about your performance, but after twenty years we wanted to
take action on the City's racial equity plan and give people an opportunity to
compete for a leadership position."
The mayor of San Francisco, London Breed, disagreed:
"John Arntz has served San Francisco with integrity, professionalism and has
stayed completely independent. He's remained impartial and has avoided getting
caught up in the web of City politics, which is what we are seeing now as a
result of this unnecessary vote.
"Over the last year John successfully ran four elections while navigating a
pandemic that thwarted San Francisco into crisis response – all without a single
issue. Rather than working on key issues to recover and rebuilt our City, this
is a good example of unfair politicization of a key part of our government that
is working well for the voters of this city."
All of the 12 managers in his department asked that his contract be renewed. But
in today's woke world of identity politics, race trumps meritocracy. "Racial
equity" plans are apparently more important than electoral integrity.
It well maybe that Arntz's "equity" replacement will be as good as or better
than him. There are, after all, highly qualified people of all races and
backgrounds. But that is not the point. His contract would clearly have been
renewed — he would not have been fired — if he were of an "acceptable" race. But
he is not, because he does not meet the criteria for the city's "racial equity
plan."
To cover their legal rear ends ("CYA") the panel has said that Arntz can
"reapply" and be considered among the pool of candidates who do meet the
criteria of racial equity, even though he does not! This "CYA" tactic does not
even pass the giggle test.
It certainly does not pass the constitutional test, even the one that currently
allows universities to place the thumb of racial diversity on the scale of
admissions. That test is likely to be changed — perhaps disallowed — even in the
context of private universities such as Harvard. The City of San Francisco is a
state actor that is constitutionally prohibited from disqualifying job
applicants on the basis of race. That is precisely what occurred here, despite
the phony claim that he can reapply for his job.
There is one important benefit to the San Francisco decision — at least as
compared to university admissions decisions. The San Francisco panel did not try
to disguise the racial criteria they are employing, whereas most universities go
to great length to deny that race alone is often a dispositive factor in ranking
applicants. This will make it easier for the courts to hold San Francisco's
Arntz decision as a clear violation of the equal protection clause of the 14th
Amendment. But even if this particularly outrageous decision is struck down as
unconstitutional, many cities and other governmental units will continue to use
race as a basis for hiring and firing employees. They will simply be less
transparent about it than San Francisco was.
In the bad old days, race was often used to discriminate against Black
applicants. Today race is often used to discriminate in favor of Black
applicants. I guess that is some sort of progress. But real progress will be
achieved only if and when race is no longer a factor that trumps meritocracy.
Only then will Martin Luther King, Jr.'s dream of how his children and ours
should be judged become a reality.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of The Price of Principle: Why
Integrity Is Worth The Consequences. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation
Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Are Muslims “Invading” the United Kingdom?
Raymond Ibrahim/November 28, 2022
The secretary of the United Kingdom’s Home Office, which regulates immigration,
recently caused a scandal by referring to the nonstop immigration of mostly
Muslim migrants as an “invasion.” On 30, 2022, Suella Braverman said:
The British people deserve to know which party is serious about stopping the
invasion on our southern coast and which party is not… Some 40,000 people have
arrived on the south coast this year alone, many of them facilitated by criminal
gangs, some of them actual members of criminal gangs. So let’s stop pretending
that they are all refugees in distress: the whole country knows that that is not
true…. I’m utterly serious about ending the scourge of illegal migration and I
am determined to do whatever it takes to break the criminal gangs and fix our
hopelessly lax asylum system…
Needless to say, such frank assertions “sparked an instant backlash from all
sectors of the globalist establishment in Britain, from the legacy media to
politicians in both the Labour Party and the Conservatives.”
Meanwhile, and seemingly confirming Braverman’s concerns, outrageous numbers of
migrants, the overwhelming majority arriving from the Muslim world, have indeed
flooded the UK. According to one report, in just the first half of 2021, “an
astonishing 1.1 million visas [were] granted for people to come and live in the
UK… It is the highest number of visas for people to come and live here ever
issued in one year, suggesting that, despite repeated promises to control and
reduce immigration, the government are delivering the opposite.”
Then there is the huge “number of applicants awaiting decisions on asylum” in
the UK, which has risen by 300% in four years.
According to yet another source, “In 2021, the top five most common countries of
nationality of people who applied for asylum in the UK were Iran, Iraq, Eritrea,
Albania and Syria.” With the exception of Eritrea, which is roughly half Muslim,
half Christian, every one of these nations is overwhelmingly Muslim majority.
Incidentally, these numbers are separate from the pre-existing Muslim population
of the UK, which, in 2017—before the recent migrant influx—was well over four
million, or 6.3 percent of the entire, formerly Christian, population.
Little wonder that the name “Muhammad” is the most popular name for newborn baby
boys in England; little wonder that Muslims in the UK and other Western European
nations with large Muslim populations, regularly boast of demography as destiny.
As one report explained in 2008, “Muslim hate fanatics plan to take over Britain
by having more babies and forcing a population explosion… The swollen Muslim
population would be enough to conquer Britain from inside, they claim.”
Despite all of this, is it correct to refer to this Muslim migrant explosion an
invasion?
In fact, it is not. Consider some authoritative dictionary definitions of
“invasion”:
Merriam-Webster: an “incursion of an army for conquest or plunder… an instance
of invading a country or region with an armed force. … an unwelcome intrusion
into another’s domain.
Cambridge: “an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take
control of another country.”
Oxford: “the act of an army entering another country by force in order to take
control of it.”
Now, to be sure, and as chronicled here and here, Muslims have, for over a
millennium, launched countless military invasions into Europe that very much
conformed to these definitions. They came as an “army,” used “force to enter and
take control” of various nations, and all “for conquest or plunder.”
While some of these invasions saw the long term conquest of European
nations—Spain, the Mediterranean islands, the Balkans—jihadist invasions that
did not lead to conquest but acquired much by way of booty and slaves were
habitually launched against virtually every corner of Europe, as far as Iceland.
Indeed, from 1627 to 1633, Lundy, an island off the west coast of Britain, was
actually occupied by Muslim pirates from North Africa, who pillaged England at
will.
Moreover, many of today’s Muslims who migrant to Europe harbor the same motives
of “conquest and plunder,” which in Rotherham, England, for example, saw
thousands of young British girls turned into sex slaves.
Even so, the all-important ingredient that would qualify what is happening today
as an “invasion” is missing: Muslims are not entering the UK by “force,” against
the UK’s will. They are being welcomed in by the government and authorities of
the UK—those most charged with protecting and maintaining the national character
of the UK. This is why, Eastern Europe—which, thanks to its geographic proximity
to Islam, has historically bore the brunt of and suffered from invading Islam—is
not suffering now. Unlike the UK and many other Western European nations,
Poland, Hungary, and their like have simply said no to migration from Muslim
nations; and their native citizens are thanking them for it. In short, if you’re
invited in, you cannot be called an “invader”—regardless of your intentions.
Thus, and at the risk of appearing to quibble over semantics, what is happening
today all throughout the West in general and the UK in particular must be seen
and called out for what it actually is: not an unstoppable invasion, but an
assisted suicide.
Rishi Sunak Is Trapped in a Tory Civil War
Martin Ivens/Bloomberg/November,28/2022
When Lewis Carroll’s Alice says she can't believe impossible things, the White
Queen gives the smart politician’s reply: “I daresay you haven't had much
practice. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before
breakfast.”
Rishi Sunak, the UK’s pragmatic new prime minister, doesn’t believe impossible
things either. However, a number of powerful factions within the ruling
Conservative party want several contradictory things “before breakfast” — and
even more of a challenge, before the next general election in two years’ time.
The prime minister is being forced to fend off attacks within his party while a
Labor opposition under Keir Starmer, reinvigorated by a 20-point lead in the
opinion polls, savages the Tory record since 2010. He has enough material to go
on — real disposable income is set to drop by 7.1% over the next two years. All
things being equal, that spells electoral doom for the party in power for the
last 12 years.
Sunak is indeed trapped in a vicious circle. He is criticized by many in his
party for presiding over a “high-tax, low-growth” economy. The prime minister,
therefore, proposes to stimulate it by building more houses and getting around
bottlenecks in the labor market through immigration. Unfortunately, though his
party base accepts the diagnosis, it refuses both remedies.
The PM also knows that post-Brexit trade deals have not compensated for the loss
of access to the European single market. Yet any talk of reviving trade and
investment through an accommodation with Brussels is also greeted by howls of
betrayal from the Tory right, clinging to the vision of a “pure Brexit.”
Angered by the tax increases in the Autumn Statement and plans for economic
retrenchment, many restive Conservatives yearn to put rocket boosters on growth.
On this point, I sympathize. Why reduce demand in a downturn — the inevitable
effect of tax hikes? There is a decent argument to be had on this point.
However, Tory MPs seem keener on opening up a number of battlefronts on both the
left and right wings of the party. On Tuesday night, rebels successfully stalled
the government’s plan to build 300,000 homes a year — an entirely notional
target, last achieved 45 years ago. But, in the process, they have attacked a
central tenet of Sunak’s election pitch to restore the reputation of the party
among would-be home-owners.
Many economists argue that house building is the best way to stimulate activity
in a recession. It did just that during the Great Depression in the 1930s. In
any case, the country needs to build affordable new homes for young people. If
they can’t get on the housing ladder, they will vote Labor. Sunak knows that at
heart. The electoral map of London has turned Labor red in recent years because
rents and house prices are too high. Nationally, voters under 50 have turned
away from the Tories.
The rebels, however, are more reflective of their constituents. These NIMBY (not
in my backyard) voters resent new developments on green fields that will block
their view. Everyone agrees in principle to construction on brownfield sites in
the UK’s low-density cities. But then the leader of the rebels — former
Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers — also insists that the government should
not “urbanize the suburbs” either, where can Sunak build?
If the prime minister can’t enforce his national planning regime against his own
MPs, I would suggest he narrow his ambitions to a more limited but perhaps more
achievable target.
Sunak should throw his weight behind the development of the booming
Oxford-Cambridge-London high-tech triangle where growth is currently hindered by
planning constraints. In the past, a Cabinet minister, Michael Heseltine, was
vested with enormous powers to revive the docklands of Liverpool and the
capital. He succeeded spectacularly. A similar initiative, offset by plans for
renewal in the post-industrial North, could deliver large economic gains at
smaller political cost.
The Office for Budgetary Responsibility, which checks the government’s
tax-and-spend homework, predicts that increased immigration will encourage
economic activity and bypass bottlenecks in a tight employment market. The
Confederation of British Industry and the farming lobby both want workers from
abroad to fill vacancies. However, that opens another battlefront. A key Brexit
demand was control of immigration, ending the free movement of people into the
UK from the European Union. Official figures released on Thursday show that UK
net migration hit 504,000 in the year to June. Post-Brexit, the number of
migrants has actually risen. Brexit voters are furious at the influx. Mass
migration, in turn, turns Sunak’s crisis into an alarming vicious circle: the
population surge increases the demand for housing. One Housing Ministry report
four years ago estimated that prices had been driven 20% higher over a 25-year
period from 1991. If the Tory leader wants to break out of this trap, he has to
tackle labor shortages at the source. More than five million adults are
economically inactive in the UK — a number that has swollen by another 600,000
since the pandemic. Some are unemployable through long-term physical and mental
disabilities but many are healthy — and must be incentivized to return to the
labor force.
Sunak must either get more people back to work and reduce immigration numbers,
or allow mass immigration to continue but build more homes to house the
newcomers. Instead, the UK has both more migrants and an inflationary housing
shortage.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development calculates that the UK
will suffer more than most developed nations during the downturn. Barriers to
trade with the EU are clearly a hindrance to growth but when unnamed sources
told The Sunday Times that the government was contemplating a Swiss-style deal
with Brussels there was an outcry from the Conservative party’s right wing.
Never mind that there is no Swiss option on the negotiating table. In any case,
neither the Tories nor the Labor party currently favor what such a deal would
entail: paying into the EU budget, acceding to European judicial primacy, and
allowing freedom of migration. Yet some reduction in trade friction would be
welcome. Sunak, although a committed Brexit supporter, is a more amenable
negotiating partner to Brussels than his two immediate predecessors, Liz Truss
and Boris Johnson (both of whom are leading another revolt against Sunak focused
on their opposition to onshore wind farms).
In truth, Sunak is faced by an unholy alliance of diehard Leavers and Remainers
who don’t really want to make a pragmatic Brexit work. The diehards want no
compromise with the EU. The Remainers want a re-run of the referendum. The new
leader at the helm is an affable, conflict-averse politician but avoiding all
rows is an impossible thing. The prime minister will soon need to choose where
to make a stand against his own enemies within. And unless he can offer them a
glimmer of economic growth, the chances of revival are narrowing by the month.
Between the fear of a failed state and Iranian popular hope
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/November 28, 2022
The current protest movement in Iran appears to be the result of the refusal of
the Iranian regime to consider the social transformations that the country has
experienced since 1979. These transformations could lead to different outcomes:
The continuation of the status quo, the emergence of a military government or,
in the longer-term, the establishment of a new secular political regime.
The revolutionary movement of the fall of 2022 is both an indicator of the
underlying Iranian discontent since 1979 and the synthesis of previous movements
(protests for gender equality, minority rights, political liberalization, and
improvements in socioeconomic conditions). Because of its revolutionary
dimension, the current movement can be compared, to a certain extent, to the
Iranian situation of 1977-1978. Indeed, back then, the concept of a revolution
was a question of “thinking the unthinkable.” In other words, it was only four
months before the shah’s departure that Western diplomats started to think
seriously about the possibility of the fall of the Pahlavi regime. This
inability of observers at the time to anticipate the fall of the Iranian
monarchy can be explained by three errors of Western analysis during the first
half of 1978.
First, US intelligence services overestimated the strength of the shah’s state
security apparatuses that confronted the popular Iranian uprising. This is the
same today, with the strength of the “Islamic Republic” blown out of proportion,
but there is a noticeable difference to the past: The shah did not order a mass
crackdown on protesters in 1978, nor was he receptive toward forming a military
junta in Iran. However, in 2022, the order to kill protesters was given by the
highest Iranian state authorities and was executed by the country’s various
security apparatuses.
Given the mentioned context, an important question arises: If the demonstrations
are further prolonged, will the members of the Iranian security forces continue
to blindly accept the order to kill protesters or will they defy? Overall, the
security approach of the Iranian state is both a strength and a weakness for its
political-religious elite. A strength because this is a means of guaranteeing
the survival of the political system and a weakness because the political and
economic costs of repression will fuel further popular discontent and risings
against the political-economic status quo.
The security approach of the Iranian state is both a strength and a weakness for
its political-religious elite
Secondly, observers were unable to identify any other opposition movements or
political leaders to bring about regime change. Before 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini
was considered by some Western academics as an Iranian Gandhi and he was
expected by most to engage in religious and spiritual activity in the religious
cities of Qom and Najaf, and not to be involved in the daily politics of the new
revolutionary regime after the fall of the shah. In 2022, Western observers are
having the same difficulty in identifying any political alternatives to the
current regime.
The dominant discourse focuses on the absence of alternatives among the Iranian
political forces based inside Iran, which is the result of the elimination of
any opposition force inside the country by the Khomeinist regime between 1979
and 1982. The political role of Iran’s diaspora is important, as Iranian
political forces based outside the country can take advantage of the West’s open
political and media spaces to project another narrative regarding the current
protests.
However, the diaspora also faces a major handicap, as the same forces have
difficulty in playing a larger role in leading and directing the current
protests, other than being the external face of the demonstrations. This role of
being a voice of the protesters is nevertheless decisive and the Iranian
authorities have decided to escalate their targeting of Persian-language outlets
based outside Iran. The Voice of America, BBC Persian and the London-based
channel Iran International have all recently experienced harassment and
intimidation from the Iranian regime.
Finally, the fall of the shah was announced on several occasions between 1953
and 1978. The same can be said of the current regime: The fall of the Khomeinist
regime has been announced many times since 1982. There is, therefore, widespread
skepticism regarding the question of the “beginning of the end” of political
regimes. The Iranian regime relies on drawing comparisons with the outcomes of
the Syrian and Libyan revolutions of 2011 to create fear and generate
uncertainty about the possibility of a post-Islamic Republic Iranian state.
What is unprecedented today is the emergence in the West of public debate on
regime change in Iran, particularly on whether there will be a transition to a
military or a secular state. The very existence of this debate shows the novelty
of the current protests; however, it is too early to tell which scenario will
prevail in the future. In the short-term, the most probable outcome is for the
political-economic status quo to remain in place.
**Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian
Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami
بارعة علم الدين/عرب نيوز: لقد تم بالفعل هزيمة النظام الإيراني أخلاقيا
Iranian regime has already been morally defeated
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 28, 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113694/113694/
Iran’s leaders may be facing existential challenges at home, but Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei was, in recent days, still focused on exporting the revolution
overseas. He boasted about how Tehran had succeeded in building a “strong
presence” in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, asserting that his theocratic regime had
“transformed the hearts of neighboring nations.”
But where are all these supposed “transformed hearts” in Iraq, Syria and
Lebanon? Shiites in these countries have been horrified by the carnage in Iran,
just as they have been shocked at how Tehran has transformed their
once-flourishing nations into failed states. Pro-Iran TV channels like Al-Manar
have been defensively tying themselves in knots explaining why vivacious young
women like Nika Shakarami, Sarina Esmailzadeh and Mahsa Amini ended up dead.
Overseas expressions of support for the brutal crackdown have been notable by
their absence.
Not long ago, Sunnis and Shiites throughout the region were at each other’s
throats — largely the product of Iranian interference. Yet in locations like
Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain, it increasingly feels as if a new dynamic is in play,
bringing various sects together in support of greater national unity and
identity — and in opposition to hostile foreign interference. Iran’s
revolutionary exports are no longer in demand.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is effectively in a state of war with
Iraqi Kurdistan, having fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Kurdish areas
and threatened a ground invasion. Iranian stooges in the Iraqi government have
further fueled tensions by demanding measures against Iranian Kurd groups in the
north of the country — despite these groups having played no significant role in
the uprising. There is a bitter irony in Iraqi troops being sent to the borders
to defend against their overbearing neighbor, which never tires of claiming to
act in defense of Iraqi Shiites.
Iran has, meanwhile, been seeking to destabilize neighboring Georgia and
Azerbaijan. This includes efforts to mobilize Shiite Azeris in these states.
Local journalists and analysts have warned of the establishment of theological
and economic institutions that are transparent vehicles for espionage and
subversion. Head of the Azerbaijan-Georgia Inter-Parliamentary Friendship Group,
MP Arzu Nagiyev, warned that Iran was seeking to trigger sectarian conflict.
The international community must assist long-suffering Iranians in ensuring that
this regime is removed in its entirety.
With Iranian drones and missiles currently wreaking havoc throughout Ukraine,
this lunatic theocracy is hell-bent on waging war against the entire world. In
recent days, IRGC commander Hossein Salami declared that “this great sedition
and world war will be turned into a graveyard of the enemies,” while denouncing
protesters as “unbelievers” and indicating that they would be confronted
militarily.
It was announced last week that Iran was embarking on a massive expansion of its
nuclear activities and would commence enriching uranium to 60 percent at the
Fordow nuclear site, having already been conducting such activities at Natanz.
There is no conceivable peaceful purpose for such efforts. The ayatollahs intend
to use this highly enriched uranium in warheads that they envisage will soon be
pointed at regional states and the West. Are we to just passively observe as —
like with North Korea — they cross the threshold to being a military nuclear
power?
Khamenei went on to praise Basij militias for “protecting” Iran against
“rioters” and “thugs.” He added: “The presence of the Basij shows that the
Islamic Revolution is alive.” These Basij elements Khamenei is so proud of are
complicit in the routine use of rape and torture against young female and male
detainees. Nearly 150 eye specialists last week signed a letter warning of large
numbers of protesters who had lost eyes due to live ammunition used by snipers.
Khamenei’s own niece, Farideh Moradkhani, has now denounced this “murderous and
child-killing” regime, following her own arrest, and called on foreign
governments to cut all ties with Tehran.
In another shockingly widespread practice, protesters have been bundled into
ambulances full of IRGC personnel ready and waiting to give arrivals a severe
beating before detaining them. This has a disturbing parallel with how pro-Iran
militias, at the height of the 2006 sectarian bloodshed, exploited their control
of Iraq’s Health Ministry to lend out ambulances to Shiite death squads, who
used these vehicles to abduct and gruesomely murder thousands of Sunni
civilians.
Even staunch insiders have realized that the regime is on course for disaster.
Several of these figures made a rare intervention with Khamenei. Prominent
officials Ali and Amoli Larijani apparently reminded Khamenei that when the shah
attempted to brutally repress demonstrations in 1978 it brought about the end of
the monarchy. Khamenei reportedly retorted that those who opposed him deserved
to be executed as an example to others.
At the recent Manama Dialogue, senior Western officials voiced their concerns
that, if the regime fell, whatever followed could be worse, including the
scenario of all-out civil war. If the mullahs were forced out, the most likely
scenario would be an IRGC-attempted military takeover. As occurred in Sudan and
Algeria after 2019, the military may believe that it can endure by throwing
certain civilian leaders overboard, while continuing to wield power with an iron
fist. The regime, in any case, has long been moving toward a situation where the
Revolutionary Guard controls all the principal centers of power, including its
domination of vast economic conglomerates.
The international community must assist long-suffering Iranians in ensuring that
this regime is removed in its entirety and that they do not transition from
corrupt theocracy to military dictatorship. This requires long-term commitments
to support Iranians in building institutions and demilitarizing their nation, so
that the IRGC’s immense paramilitary network no longer poses a threat to Iran or
its neighbors.
Under the slogan of “Women, Life, Freedom,” Iranians are making unimaginable
sacrifices in their struggle against tyranny. It is time world leaders realized
that greater sacrifices and commitment will be required on their part if we are
truly to be rid of a terrorist regime that excels in crimes against humanity and
threatens ballistic, paramilitary and nuclear annihilation.
Now entirely dependent on the tactics of torture, rape and murder to keep its
citizenry in check, this is a regime that has already been morally defeated. Now
it must be thoroughly dismantled from the top down.
**Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.