English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 20/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.may20.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
For where two or three are gathered in my
name, I am there among them
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
Matthew 18/18-22:”Truly I tell you, whatever you bind on earth will be bound in
heaven, and whatever you loose on earth will be loosed in heaven. Again, truly I
tell you, if two of you agree on earth about anything you ask, it will be done
for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three are gathered in my name,
I am there among them.’Then Peter came and said to him, ‘Lord, if another member
of the church sins against me, how often should I forgive? As many as seven
times?’Jesus said to him, ‘Not seven times, but, I tell you, seventy-seven
times.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May
19-20/2022
Lebanon….The Legend Nation/Etienne Sacre – Abu Arz/May 19/2022
UNIFIL chief calls for 'constructive outcomes' on contentious issues along Blue
Line
US sanctions Lebanese businessman, his companies over Hezbollah links
Lebanon’s Living Crises Worsen, Long Queues Return after Elections
Lebanon: Eight out of 115 Female Candidates Reach Parliament
Lebanon gets Interpol notice for Ghosn arrest
Geagea: Majority shifted from Hizbullah to forces that agree on opposing arms,
corruption
Bread crisis resolved as Economy Ministry hikes prices
Rifi says won't be in LF's bloc but rather an ally
Corm says govt. has last chance to save telecom sector in Friday's session
WHO and Italian embassy sign agreement to strengthen hospital care in Lebanon
Lebanon independents celebrate: 'change has begun'
Bread sold on black market for LBP 30,000 amid crisis
Agriculture specialist explains wheat crisis in Lebanon, worldwide
Israel 'mistakenly' fires interception missiles, says no drone has crossed from
Lebanon
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy: "Elections did not undermine
Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’/Ray Hanania/Arab News/May
19/2022
Election losses unlikely to loosen Hezbollah’s grip on power/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab
News/May 19/2022
Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene/Paul Salem/MEI@75/May
19/2022
What's after Hezbollah's failure/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/May
19/2022
‘Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’
says spokesman for the American Task Force on Lebanon/Ray Hanania/Arab News/May
19/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 19-20/2022
Video interview with Jordan's king: Iran filling vacuum left by Russians
in Syria, says/Tzvi Joffer/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
Israel arrests Al Jazeera reporter pallbearer
UN envoy: US sanctions on Iran worsen humanitarian situation
Israeli military ID's gun that may have killed journalist Abu Akleh
Shaky Israeli coalition is jolted as another lawmaker quits
Hamas students celebrate West Bank university poll win
A year after disaster, thousands flock to Israeli holy site
Russian soldier on trial asks victim's widow to forgive him
UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that could last for years
Mariupol battle draws to close; fighting in Donbas continues
UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that could last for years
Biden meets Sweden, Finland leaders to talk NATO, Russia
Militant attacks hurt Pakistan relations with Afghan Taliban
Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan
Iraq’s Kadhimi Ends ‘Green Zone Era,’ Vows Restoring Neighborhoods’ Original
Names
Lavrov Discusses with Sheikh Prospects of Palestinian-Israeli Settlement
Erdogan Calls for NATO Support to Establish Safe Zone on Turkey-Syria Border
Pentagon: Most Casualties in Syria’s Baghouz Airstrike Were ISIS Militants
China Warns US a ‘Dangerous Situation’ Forming Over Taiwan
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 19-20/2022
Pro-Iran parties in Iraq want to ban ‘Israel normalization’ -
analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
The Strongman Cometh ...Why Erdoğan suddenly has a problem with Finland and
Sweden joining NATO./Eric S. Edelman/The Dispatch/May 19/2022
Iran Trying to Force the US to Meet All Its Demands/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/May 19/2022
Expect another major uprising soon in Iran/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May
19/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 19-20/2022
Lebanon….The Legend Nation/Etienne Sacre – Abu Arz/May
19/2022
Below Is the Arabic version of this document in three parts
الوطن الأسطورة … لبنان القداسة والتاريخ والبطولة والرسالة/الجزء الثالث والأخير-
التراث
ابو أرز- اتيان صقر/25 شباط/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108748/etienne-sacre-abu-arz-lebanon-the-legend-nation-%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b5%d9%82%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d8%b7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84/
UNIFIL chief calls for 'constructive outcomes' on
contentious issues along Blue Line
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Chairing his first Tripartite meeting with senior Lebanese and Israeli officers,
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Aroldo Lázaro expressed
his hope to use the forum "to move beyond the delivery of statements to
emphasize finding solutions."
The UNIFIL Head made the comments at a meeting held in Ras al-Naqoura, Lebanon.
Taking a "practical and pragmatic" approach, Lázaro expressed his goal to "reach
constructive outcomes" through the Tripartite structure and UNIFIL's other
liaison and coordination mechanisms, a UNIFIL statement said. "The importance of
the Tripartite mechanism is underscored by the Security Council as a vital tool
to defuse tensions and avoid miscalculations," he told the attendees. "We in
this room are responsible for achieving this. To do so will require constructive
conversations and looking for win-win solutions," he added. Issues discussed
included incidents along the Blue Line, airspace violations, and serious
breaches of the cessation of hostilities in violation of U.N. Security Council
resolution 1701. Major General Lázaro also called on the parties to move on
marking points along the Blue Line that have previously been agreed.
UNIFIL’s Tripartite mechanism was established immediately following the 2006 war
to coordinate the withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Lebanon and the
handover, through UNIFIL, to the Lebanese Army. It has evolved into a forum to
help the Lebanese and Israeli armies "reach pragmatic agreements on contentious
issues, and to build trust and confidence between the parties," the UNIFIL
statement said. "These meetings have proven essential to managing conflict and
maintaining the stability that has prevailed along the Blue Line since 2006," it
added.
US sanctions Lebanese businessman, his companies over
Hezbollah links
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108773/%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%a1%d9%80-%d8%b9%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d9%85/
Reuters/May 19, 2022
WASHINGTON: The US Treasury Department on Thursday issued new Hezbollah-related
sanctions, designating Lebanese businessman and the Iran-backed group’s
financial facilitator, Ahmad Jalal Reda Abdallah, and his companies. Abdallah,
five of his associates and eight of his companies in Lebanon and Iraq were
sanctioned and added to the sanctions list of the US Treasury Department’s
Office of Foreign Assets Control, the department said. Abdallah is a Hezbollah
official and an active member of its global financial network, according to the
Treasury. He has supported Hezbollah for decades, carrying out commercial
activities in various countries where the profits are transferred to the
Iran-backed group, the department said. Founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards and classified by the United States and other Western countries as a
“terrorist organization,” Hezbollah is a powerful group in Lebanon because of a
heavily armed militia that fought several wars with Israel. It grew stronger
after joining the war in Syria in 2012 in support of President Bashar Assad. The
United States said Abdallah used his senior employees and relatives to establish
new businesses throughout the Middle East on behalf of Hezbollah. Hezbollah on
Sunday faced an electoral setback when the group and its allies lost their
parliamentary majority in elections in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s Living Crises Worsen, Long Queues Return
after Elections
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al Awsat/May 19/2022
Lebanon’s living crises resurfaced only two days after the parliamentary
elections were held. Long queues of people waiting in front of bakeries and gas
stations returned, electricity supply declined due to fuel shortages, and the
exchange rate of the dollar against the local currency rose to record levels not
seen in five months. In hopes of curbing the spike in exchange rates, Lebanon’s
central bank released a statement confirming it will continue to allow banks to
purchase dollars with no ceiling via the bank's Sayrafa exchange platform until
the end of July. Moreover, authorities rushed to intervene in securing fuel for
power production plants. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday received a
phone call from the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who congratulated
him on the holding of the parliamentary elections. He also notified him that
Iraq will continue to supply Lebanon with the fuel needed to produce
electricity. Nevertheless, Lebanon’s national electricity company said that it
will cut its output further in the coming days, after burning through most of
its fuel supplies during Sunday’s election. EDL wrote that it “consumed its fuel
reserves at a faster pace” during “the period of the parliamentary election”.
Lebanon was witnessing a host of renewed crises on Wednesday against the
backdrop of a continuous surge of the dollar exchange rate on the black market.
For the first time in five months, the exchange rate hit LBP 31,000 to the
dollar.
The hike confused Lebanon’s markets and increased speculation with some shops
closing their doors in the suburbs of Beirut to prevent additional losses.
“Gasoline is available in the depots of the companies and in ships present at
sea. We are not in a fuel crisis in Lebanon, because the issue is related to
some delay in the completion of bank transactions aimed at providing the
importing companies with dollars through the Sayrafa platform,” said a top
member of the fuel station owners syndicate of Lebanon, George Brax. “The issue
should be solved quickly… Companies are distributing gasoline in limited
quantities and some stations ran out due to the delay in gasoline deliveries,”
Brax added.
Lebanon: Eight out of 115 Female Candidates Reach
Parliament
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/May 19/2022
Only eight women out of 115 candidates nominated by traditional parties,
opposition groups and civil society reached the Lebanese parliament, amid calls
for the adoption of a law that defines women’s quota. However, this year’s
winners have broken a decades-old custom in Lebanon – that is parliamentary
inheritance. In fact, since 1963, a female candidate would usually enter
Parliament following the death of her husband or father, inheriting his seat.
The first Lebanese woman deputy is Mirna Al-Boustani, who arrived unopposed
after a by-election that took place following the death of her father, Emile Al-Boustani
in 1963. Other women followed the same path, including Nouhad Said, wife of
former MP Antoine Said, Nayla Mouawad, wife of former President Rene Mouawad,
and Solange Gemayel, wife of former President Bachir Gemayel. Women, who
achieved victory in the recent legislative elections, are distributed as
follows: 3 deputies who were in the previous parliament, including Paula
Yacoubian (independent), Enaya Ezzeddine (Amal Movement) and Strida Geagea (the
Lebanese Forces Party), three deputies that represent the change movement,
including Najat Saliba, Halima Al-Qaaqour and Cynthia Zarazir, in addition to
Ghada Ayoub, who is affiliated with the Lebanese Forces party, and former
Minister Nada Al-Boustani, who represents the Free Patriotic Movement.In remarks
to Asharq Al-Awsat, Najat Saliba, the elected representative of the Chouf-Aley
constituency (from the opposition groups), said that she was disappointed by the
fact that only 8 women entered Parliament this year. “We had hoped that more
women would reach Parliament and that their representation would at least equal
that in Arab countries,” she said, stressing, however, that the new female
deputies have won with “high merit” and would “work as they should.”Saliba
rejected claims that women do not need a quota to run for the elections. “These
are illogical arguments. In all countries, in which women are well represented
in parliament, a quota law was passed; then, after it becomes natural and people
get used to the idea, the law can be canceled.”She added that the quota would
not mean specifying a certain number of women candidates to Parliament in each
list, but rather setting a percentage that would represent the minimum number of
female deputies. In this regard, Saliba stressed that the percentage should not
be less than 30 percent, saying: “Men themselves should not accept this meager
representation and push to change this reality.”
Lebanon gets Interpol notice for Ghosn arrest
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Lebanon has received an Interpol red notice for the arrest of ex-Nissan boss
Carlos Ghosn at France's request, but it is unlikely to extradite him, a court
official said Thursday. "Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat has received from Interpol a
red notice... against Ghosn based on an international arrest warrant issued by
France" last month, the official told the AFP news agency. The prosecutor "will
set, within the coming days, and perhaps early next week, a date to summon and
question Ghosn," said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Interpol
notices, which are not international arrest warrants, ask authorities worldwide
to provisionally detain people pending possible extradition or other legal
actions. Interpol issues them at the request of a member country. The notice
against Ghosn is a test for Lebanon, which does not extradite its citizens and
has banned Ghosn from leaving its territory. According to the court official,
Oueidat could either respond by issuing an immediate warrant for Ghosn's arrest
or he could hold off until his case is transferred from France to Lebanon. If
the crimes attributed to him by France are deemed "punishable by Lebanese law,
he can be tried before Lebanese courts," the official said, adding however that
extradition was unlikely. "Lebanon will not agree to extradite Ghosn, who is of
Lebanese origin, to France because the law prevents it," the official said.
France sought the arrest of Ghosn last month over suspect payments of some 15
million euros ($16.3 million) between the Renault-Nissan automaker alliance that
Ghosn once headed and its dealer in Oman, Suhail Bahwan Automobiles. The
allegations against Ghosn, 68, include misuse of company assets, money
laundering and corruption. Ghosn -- who holds French, Lebanese and Brazilian
passports -- was initially due to stand trial in Japan, following his detention
there in 2018, but he jumped bail and fled to Lebanon..
Geagea: Majority shifted from Hizbullah to forces that
agree on opposing arms, corruption
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Thursday disputed Hizbullah chief Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah’s announcement that “no camp has the parliamentary majority,”
noting that the LF and the so-called change forces are a majority seeing that
they agree on “sovereignty” and on opposing corruption and Hizbullah’s arms.“The
elections results were resounding and Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement
lost the majority,” Geagea said at a press conference that followed a meeting
for the LF’s Strong Republic bloc. “The Movement of lies, distortion and
deception makes you delve into details to clarify the identity of the biggest
bloc in parliament, and if I were in the position of (FPM chief Jebran) Bassil,
I would have chosen a place in the 17th floor below ground to sit in. How does
he have the audacity to claim victory?” Geagea added. “We are the biggest bloc
in parliament and we will shoulder our responsibility accordingly. It turns out
that we have to clarify to the people that our bloc is comprised of 19 members,
whereas they have an 18-member bloc that includes Mohammed Yahia,” the LF leader
said. He also noted that the votes of the FPM’s allies contributed to the win of
Salim Aoun in Zahle, Charbel Maroun in West Bekaa/Rashaya, Samer al-Toum in
Baalbek-Hermel and Edgard Trabulsi in Beirut’s second district. Turning to the
issue of electing a new parliament speaker, Geagea said the LF “has very clear
characteristics for the parliament speaker that do not apply to Speaker Nabih
Berri.”“Any serious candidate must pledge to accurately implement parliament’s
bylaws, endorse electronic voting, not to close parliament under any
circumstances, and to fully return the strategic decision to the government,
that’s why we won’t vote for Berri,” Geagea added. Asked about the possibility
of joining a national unity government, Geagea described such governments as
“national soup governments.”“The national unity governments lacked unity and
were not national. We are against any national unity government,” the LF leader
added. As for the deputy speaker post, Geagea stressed that the LF’s elected MP
Ghassan Hasbani “enjoys all the characteristics that entitle him to be deputy
speaker,” adding that the LF is “open to negotiations” but “will never bargain
over its political project.”
Bread crisis resolved as Economy Ministry hikes prices
Naharnet/May 19/2022
The head of the flour mills syndicate in Lebanon announced Thursday that the
bread crisis in the country has been resolved, adding that bread will be
available in the market as of tomorrow. The Economy Ministry had earlier on
Thursday hiked the price of flat Arabic bread, the main staple in Lebanon.
According to the new prices, a small packet of bread (388 grams) will now sell
for LBP 8,000, a medium packet (855 grams) will sell for LBP 13,000 and a large
packet (1,095 grams) will sell for LBP 16,000. “The new pricing has been
necessitated by the huge surge in the prices of fuel, which directly impact the
costs of producing flour and bread as well as transportation costs,” the
Ministry said.
It also cited the global increase in the price of wheat due to the Ukrainian
crisis.
Rifi says won't be in LF's bloc but rather an ally
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Former Justice Minister and newly elected MP Ashraf Rifi has said that he will
not be within the Lebanese Forces parliamentary coalition, but will be an ally.
Rifi told Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, in remarks published Thursday, that he will
take part in a "broad sovereign and patriotic front that refuses Hizbullah's
weapons and Iran's hegemony."Saying that a political confrontation against
"Iran's hegemony" is coming, the ex-minister accused the Free Patriotic Movement
of being a "largely corrupt" party and Hizbullah of being "the biggest corrupt"
party.
Corm says govt. has last chance to save telecom sector in
Friday's session
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Telecommunications Minister Johnny Corm on Thursday said Cabinet has a “last
chance” to save the telecom sector from collapse in Friday’s session, warning
that his resignation is on the table if no action is taken. “If the decree of
hiking telecom tariffs is not approved, do not hold me responsible. The
elections are over and the issue no longer bears politicization. The failure to
approve the tariff will affect citizens in a more negative manner and in the
name of the Lebanese economy we are raising our voices,” Corm said at a press
conference. “Cabinet has the last chance tomorrow to halt the collapse of the
sector through hiking the tariffs of the cellular sector, seeing as without
internet we will have no schools, hospitals or economy, and without economy
Lebanon cannot exist,” Corm warned. “If my suggestion is not endorsed, my
resignation will be on the table, because telecommunications has no alternative,
and it is my duty to implement the laws,” the minister added, stressing that
rescuing the sector is an “urgent” manner.
WHO and Italian embassy sign agreement to strengthen hospital care in Lebanon
Naharnet/May 19/2022
The World Health Organization representative in Lebanon, Dr. Iman Shankiti, and
the Italian Ambassador in Beirut, Nicoletta Bombardiere, signed an agreement
Thursday at the Italian Embassy in Beirut worth 1,616,000 euros, which is aimed
at supporting the strengthening of public health systems in Lebanon.
"It has two main pillars: the first is improving the government’s regulatory
capacity in terms of access to quality medications, by expanding the
pharmaceuticals bar code system at the national level, and the second is
enhancing the capacity of public hospitals to deliver quality services, by
supporting selected public hospitals in terms of emergency care capacity," a
joint statement said. “This generous fund is a continuation of the Italian
government’s support to the health system in Lebanon. As always we remain true
to our motto that health should be available for all. And I like to add that no
one should be left behind,” said Shankiti. This project is implemented by WHO in
close coordination with the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) in Lebanon in line
with the Ministry’s priorities. Nicoletta Bombardiere, Ambassador of Italy in
Lebanon, said: “The goal of the Italian Cooperation is to contribute to global
health by promoting universal health coverage, equity and access to health for
all. Strengthening the public health system and improving quality health
services are key examples of our strategy in this sector in Lebanon.”Alessandra
Piermattei, Director of AICS (Italian Agency for Development Cooperation)
Beirut, said: “For the Italian Cooperation, health is an essential aspect of the
social and economic development of the population. For this reason, we consider
access to medicine and health care very important in the current difficult
context in Lebanon.”"The government of Italy has always been at the forefront of
supporting the Lebanese people by providing generous contributions for to the
strengthening of the health system, both in terms of governance as well as
infrastructure, and in terms of improving the quality of care, especially in
emergency care," the statement said. Furthermore, the Government of Italy
provided an emergency donation of pediatric cancer medications, with a value of
500,000 euros, that were delivered to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health
through the World Health Organization.
Lebanon independents celebrate: 'change has begun'
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
When Firas Hamdan was injured at a protest near Lebanon's parliament two years
ago, the then activist never imagined he would one day return as a lawmaker.
Hamdan, one of 13 independent politicians who emerged from a mass
anti-government protest movement in 2019, made it to parliament on a reformist
platform at elections on Sunday. The 35-year-old lawyer and another independent,
Elias Jrade, both snatched seats from allies of the powerful Hizbullah in one of
its south Lebanon strongholds -- a first in three decades. It was a breakthrough
at the first election since the Mediterranean country was plunged into a deep
economic crisis that has stoked popular fury with the hereditary and
graft-tainted ruling class. "To those who protested and clashed with
authorities, those who were beaten by security forces, I say: 'Today one of
those victims is in parliament'," Hamdan told AFP. Speaking at his family home
in the village of Kfeir, he vowed to fight for the rights of ordinary Lebanese
who have been left behind. Hamdan was hit in the chest by a lead pellet in 2020
during a demonstration near parliament, days after a deadly explosion struck
Beirut's port. At the time, rights groups said security forces and men dressed
in civilian clothing fired rubber-tipped bullets and tear gas canisters into the
crowd. But on Tuesday after the election results came in, jubilation was in the
air as exhausted friends gathered in his backyard to celebrate. Youths aspiring
for change in Lebanon have rejoiced at the victories of Hamdan and Jrade.Hamdan
won against unpopular banker Marwan Kheireddine, while Jrade nabbed a seat held
since 1992 by pro-Syrian regime politician Assaad Hardan.
Political lineage
In 2019 Hamdan was among hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who protested against
the entrenched ruling class, widely blamed for the country's economic collapse.
"We fought against an alliance of banks and the political class... to show there
is an opposition in the south, to break the political hegemony imposed on us,
and we succeeded," he said. A dashing young man and an eloquent speaker, Hamdan
hopes he will be able to pave the way for a new style of politics in Lebanon.
But the road ahead is strewn with difficulties in a country where the system
favors sectarian allegiances and power is often inherited. "We want to build a
nation where there is rule of law... to restore people's confidence in the
country so that it does not remain a place of death and migration," he said. An
economic meltdown has pushed many middle-class Lebanese to emigrate in search of
a better future. Some of Lebanon's most disadvantaged people have tried to reach
Europe on rickety boats -- a treacherous and often deadly route. Hamdan's father
Ismael, a former brigadier general, said he was proud of his "self-made" son.
"Officials must understand that change has begun," he said, standing in front of
a large portrait of himself in military uniform. A few kilometers (miles) away
in the village of Ibl al-Saqi, Jrade's family welcomed well-wishers who filled
the house with bouquets of flowers and cheerful chatter. But the newly elected
MP, also an eye surgeon, was busy tending to patients in Beirut.
'Drowning'
Jrade's friends and family who gathered in his living room lavished him with
praise. "We voted (for independents) like we were clinging to a piece of wood to
keep us from drowning," said retired teacher Ibrahim Rizk, as he sipped on his
coffee. A Harvard university graduate with a passion for farming, Jrade is
well-liked in his community because he is seen as humble.When he is not working
the land and raising poultry and fish in his farm, the surgeon spends time
tending to patients between Lebanon and Dubai. "Many people asked me: 'You're a
famous doctor and an honest man, what are you doing?' as if decent professionals
had no place in politics."The soft-spoken surgeon said he hoped to break that
stereotype. In a country rife with nepotism and corruption, he said "officials
should make a decent living from their hard work."The father-of-two intends to
pursue his political career with the same passion he has for farming and
medicine. "We are a dynamic movement, we are a revolution... We tell everyone:
'liberate yourselves'," he said. Jrade said he is aware that he will face
challenges. "We may not be a life raft, but we will create a glimmer of hope for
the future... to build the Lebanon that we dream of."
Bread sold on black market for LBP 30,000 amid crisis
Naharnet/May 19/2022
On Thursday, bags of Arabic bread were being sold on black market for up to
LBP30,000 per bag, the National News Agency said, as stores and supermarkets in
Nabatiyeh only received a scarce quantity. Six mills had stopped operating,
according to Antoine Seif, the head of the Syndicate of Bakery Owners in Mount
Lebanon, as the central bank failed to pay for wheat at the silos. According to
Economy Minister Amin Salam, a line of credit of $21 million is needed to
subsidize the quantity of wheat. Head of the National Federation of Worker and
Employee Trade Unions in Lebanon Hussein Wehbe Mogharbel said workers cannot
afford going to work anymore as fuel prices surged in the past days, with a
continuous drop of the LBP exchange rate on the black market. Mogharbel urged
the government to "protect the food security of the Lebanese" and to "deter
those who are threatening the citizens' livelihood."
"Some merchants and station owners are getting rich at the expense of the poor,"
Mogharbel said. Salam had warned that measures will be taken against “mills that
might monopolize the subsidized flour.”He reassured that the bread subsidization
will not be lifted, adding that he will ask the Ministry of Finance to pay for
the wheat ships in an upcoming Cabinet session on Friday. Ali Ibrahim, the head
of the Syndicate of Bakery Owners in Lebanon said the bread issue cannot be
postponed until Friday's session but must be solved as soon as possible. He
added that the price of an Arabic bread bag will increase by LBP 2,000 due to
the surge of the dollar exchange rate on the black market. The Lebanese Lira had
further dropped in the recent days, reaching 30,600 Thursday against the dollar.
Agriculture specialist explains wheat crisis in Lebanon,
worldwide
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Consumed daily by billions of people around the world in bread and other
flour-based products, wheat is a basic food staple, making current record prices
for the cereal a global concern. Low rainfall or droughts in major producing
countries were already causing worries before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in
February sent markets soaring. Since then, wheat-exporting powerhouse Ukraine
has struggled to sell and sow its crops, putting consumers in poor countries at
risk of poverty and even famine. Sebastien Abis, head of the Demeter
agricultural think tank in Paris and an expert at the Institute for
International and Strategic Relations, explains what's at stake:
- Is it possible to replace wheat with something else? -
"It's very difficult. Wheat is the most important cereal for global food
security: it is eaten by billions of humans in the form of bread, flour or
semolina. "Corn is grown in larger quantities but is mostly used for animal feed
or for industrial purposes. "Beyond its nutritional qualities, wheat is a very
social and democratic product, enabling people to make low-cost food -- and it
is often subsidized."
- But prices are putting it beyond the reach of consumers in some countries such
as Lebanon? -
"Yes, because of shortages and because you can't produce it just anywhere. You
can grow it in temperate climates, but there are only a dozen countries that
produce a lot and can export it, particularly Russia, Ukraine, the United
States, Australia. "In recent years, the United States has produced less and
less because they are switching to corn and soya . After the Soviet period, the
two countries that surged ahead were Ukraine and Russia. "Ukraine accounted for
12-13 percent of global exports in recent years."
- Is the lack of Ukrainian production the reason for the current situation? -
"We have at the same time a dreadful geopolitical situation, with
multilateralism faltering, to which we must add worrying climatic events, with
droughts in the southern Mediterranean basin, worries in the United States and
in Europe. "India, which had an exceptional harvest last year and reserves that
enabled it to sell more on the markets, has been hit with a terrible drought and
will not be able to export. "Prices that were already high before the war are
now exploding: wheat reached 440 euros ($463) a ton on the Euronext market on
Monday." - That came after India announced it would no longer export wheat. Why?
-
"India had announced a rather ambitious target of exporting 10 million tons. It
had sold around 3-3.5 million tons before it put its export ban in place, so one
of the questions is whether it will honor its commitments. "The situation is
tense because there's no country that can put more than usual into the export
market. Perhaps Russia will if it has a good harvest. "But even if the war
stopped, Ukraine's production and exports will not bounce back immediately."-
Have we reached the peak of the crisis, ahead of the harvests in the U.S. and
Europe this summer? "We have real long-term risks. We still haven't seen all the
shocks, because on global markets for the last two months we've been seeing
fulfilments of contracts signed before the Russian invasion. We're now entering
the hard part."
- What about stocks? -
"For wheat, we have around 270 million tons for a planet that consumes around
800 million a year. Around half are in China which has one year's consumption in
reserve. Excluding China, cereal stocks are at their lowest level in 25 years.
"We need international solidarity and cooperation. We can't leave countries to
struggle on their own for food security but at the same time you can't be
surprised that some countries are looking out for themselves first and foremost.
"We need to produce everywhere where we can produce, notably in Africa. But for
that we need peace and security".
Israel 'mistakenly' fires interception missiles, says no
drone has crossed from Lebanon
Naharnet/May 19/2022
A blast was heard on the southern border Thursday as Israel said it accidently
fired interception missiles due to a "misidentification."
"No drone had crossed from Lebanon," the Israeli army said. Alert sirens were
activated in Israel’s upper Galilee region, on the border with Lebanon, as the
Iron Dome's interceptors shot at an Israeli aircraft, the times of Israel said.
"The military did not say whether the craft was destroyed but Hebrew media
reports indicated it was not," the Israeli daily said. "The situation has
returned to normal," Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a tweet. Two
days ago, the Israeli army said it had “detected” a Hizbullah drone that crossed
from Lebanon into Israel.
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy:
"Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’
Ray Hanania/Arab News/May 19/2022
CHICAGO: The result of Lebanon’s elections should not lead people to believe
that Hezbollah has been undermined but should be seen as an opportunity to
restructure the country’s political dynamics, a spokesman for the American Task
Force on Lebanon said on Wednesday.
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy, explained that Hezbollah
coalition partners such as the conservative Christian Free Patriotic Movement,
headed by President Aoun’s son-in-law Gibran Bassile, lost seats, weakening the
Hezbollah-led group.
AbiNader said that America needs to “de-couple” US policies toward Lebanon from
US policies toward Iran. He said that Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist
organization by the US, must decide, too, if it is Lebanese or an arm of Iranian
regional influence. But Hezbollah did not lose influence in the election, he
said, only its coalition partnership.
“That’s really critical for people to understand. Hezbollah hasn’t lost. Its
coalition lost. One is the Free Patriotic Movement, which is President Michel
Aoun’s party now run by Gebran Bassile,” AbiNader said during an interview on
The Ray Hanania Radio show broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and sponsored
by Arab News.
“They lost seats. The biggest losers, of course, are the Sunnis because they
didn’t contest the election. A number of Sunni candidates won. That’s great.
Some pro-Syrian candidates lost. Some outliers who are not members of any
coalition also lost. What you have here is Amal, Hezbollah, the kernel of their
27 seats is intact. They will look to Marada and other organizations to join
with them in a coalition. But regardless of what happens, if — and this is a big
if — if Lebanese forces can pull together with the Druze, and can pick up with
the independents and the anti-traditional leaders, they will have a slim
majority in parliament.”
He said that the political balance will “shift all the time,” but conceded, “it
is definitely a time of uncertainty.”
AbiNader said that the election has created an opportunity for the Lebanese
people to form a new coalition that will focus on confronting the corruption
that has blocked a full investigation of the Aug. 4, 2020 explosion that killed
more than 218 people, injured 7,000 and made more than 300,000 people homeless.
“The explosion “has never really been investigated,” AbiNader said. Questions
still remain about how much of the ammonium nitrate that exploded still remains
and where it is. He said that the explosion was estimated to reflect the power
of about 500 tons of ammonium nitrate. But, he said, there was more than 2,700
tons at the port and the whereabouts of the 2,200 tons remains a dangerous
mystery.
“If we get a new government in Lebanon, the investigation will go forward,”
AbiNader predicted, noting that two of the government ministers who have called
for an investigation were re-elected.
“There is no full investigation in Lebanon of that bombing, so far,” AbiNader
said.
He said that the Lebanese continue to live under the fear that more violence
could take place.
“There is that fear and the fear is how do we set up a government that can
function that isn’t a provocation to Hezbollah. And that is a real challenge
because the Lebanese forces, the largest Christian party, that will form an
anti-Hezbollah coalition has to do it more than on anti-grounds,” AbiNader said.
“They have to be pro-something. That’s my concern — that Lebanese forces will
see their votes as a mandate to be aggressive and antagonistic to Hezbollah.
That shouldn’t be the target. The target should be an independent judiciary,
complete the investigations, fix the economy, put money back in people’s
pockets, and diminish corruption. That’s what the challenges should be because
that is what people are tired of. Hezbollah will gradually lose its attraction
as it loses its raison d’etre, which is to protect Lebanon against Israel.”
AbiNader argued that Hezbollah, which is a political force and a powerful
militia, must decide whether it is Lebanese or is a force for Iran.
America, he added, must see past Hezbollah in helping Lebanon to recover and
rebuild. The Biden administration, AbiNader said, has been very supportive of
Lebanon, but America needs to do more.
“Let’s be frank. The United States has not really been very smart about the
Middle East in terms of their politics. They have been trying to pivot out of
the region since Obama,” AbiNader said.
“The relationships with the Lebanese and other groups have been hard won. And
they have usually seen Lebanon through an Iranian lens or an Israeli lens and
not Lebanon for itself. And that’s really what we have been fighting to get over
the past 20 years is a Lebanese policy that is built on US-Lebanon interests and
not a Lebanon being seen as something affected by the Iran negotiations or by
Israel’s security.”
The challenge, he said, remains in Congress, where some members continue to
believe that Lebanon is “run by Hezbollah and Iran.”
“We had to show them time and time again that Lebanon has been a good partner
with the United States,” AbiNader said.
“The Congress has increased the amount of humanitarian assistance to Lebanon. It
has increased the amount of assistance to the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces),”
AbiNader said.
“It has made very strong indications of what the US would like Lebanon to do,
for example, vis a vis the elections in terms of being free, fair and on time,
which helped a lot. It has helped Lebanon with the World Bank, in terms of
Lebanon receiving certain loans, for example, to subsidize wheat. So, I think
the United States is doing a lot. But can it do more? We always think it
should.”
AbiNader acknowledged that a stronger case must be made to the Lebanese people
explaining what the US is doing for Lebanon, given the pressures of the Russian
war in Ukraine, economic issues with China, and immigration challenges on
America’s southern border.
AbiNader said that Lebanon is grateful that US President Joseph Biden has
restored the financial support that was stripped by his predecessor, Donald
Trump.
*The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and
sponsored by Arab News live every Wednesday at 5 p.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM
690 and in Washington D.C. on WDMV AM 700. It is rebroadcast on Thursdays at 7
a.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 radio and in Chicago at 12 noon on WNWI AM
1080.
Election losses unlikely to loosen Hezbollah’s grip on
power
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/May 19/2022
The results of the Lebanese parliamentary election were received with a
collective sigh of relief by the Lebanese —those who voted and those who did not
— as well as regionally and internationally as a sign that Lebanon, though still
in intensive care, has the tools to resuscitate itself if all MPs find the
political will to work toward solving the country’s multiple crises.
A closer look, however, shows that such political will has long eluded Lebanon
and the talk that Hezbollah has been weakened will not affect the status quo.
Lebanon’s domestic priorities have rarely featured in the calculations of
Hezbollah, whose record over the past few decades shows how uninterested it has
been in saving the country from its fate.
Holding a general election in a bankrupt country is an achievement in itself.
And holding it in a country where most of the people have demonstrated against
the corrupt political class that has ruled since the end of its civil war is a
promising act. Holding such elections despite an electoral law that was tailored
to preserve a majority for the Iran-backed and armed Hezbollah group and its
allies led to abstention by many.
Listening to the debates in the run up to the elections — especially those
involving the reform and change candidates, who have been demanding the
departure of the country’s corrupt, traditional leadership — made one feel as if
these people had been living in a full-fledged democracy, in which change is not
resisted by violence in the street, where parliament is not shut down to please
one force or another and where the president’s seat could remain empty
indefinitely unless a specific candidate preferred by the armed group is
elected.
Hezbollah, a militia that became a political and military player domestically
and regionally and a key mover and shaker in Lebanon’s precarious representative
system, and its main Shiite ally the Amal Movement have retained their seats.
But their Christian ally, President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, has
suffered considerable losses, bringing into question the size of the bloc allied
with Iran and Syria in the next parliament.
Despite that, it is unlikely that compromise will be the name of the game in the
country’s efforts to form a government — an affair that is usually mired in
months of haggling and political paralysis. In the meantime, the country is in
desperate need of a financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund and
others if it is to have a chance of remaining a non-failed state.
It is doubtful that compromise will be the name of the game in Lebanon’s efforts
to form a government
The Lebanese Forces, led by former warlord Samir Geagea, fared better, replacing
Aoun’s party as the dominant Christian force in the next parliament. New
opposition candidates also enjoyed some electoral successes, despite their
failure to organize and rally their forces to present a cross-sectarian,
cross-tribal and cross-religious option capable of capitalizing on the slogans
they raised during the October 2019 street protests.
Turnout was 41 percent, 8 points less than that recorded at the 2018 elections.
This turnout was even lower in Sunni Muslim areas after former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri triggered a de facto boycott of the vote in his community by pulling
his Future Movement out of the race. With that, he removed the Sunni block,
which had often tilted toward a national agenda of reform and a Lebanon free of
Syrian and Iranian influence, from the Lebanese political equation.
Regardless of the calculus attached to the election results, the Lebanese must
breathe a sigh of relief that Hezbollah and its allies have failed to win
anything close to two thirds of the parliamentary seats — a milestone that, if
reached through whatever future alliances are agreed, might allow them to amend
the constitution and change the country for good.
But this does not mean that Hezbollah will be any less dominant and assertive in
the weeks and months ahead. The group’s leadership often reminds the Lebanese
that their fight is an existential one. It is an endless fight to regain the
so-called occupied Lebanese land from Israel — and that of the Palestinians of
course — and, more recently, to prevent an alleged large-scale offshore oil and
gas robbery by “Western powers,” let alone the party’s continued presence in
Syria, Yemen and Iraq under the premise of fighting within Iran’s supreme
leader’s army.
Domestic economic reform and rebirth, the empowerment of the Lebanese state to
fight corruption, guaranteeing the independence of the judiciary, and rebuilding
and reinventing a role for Lebanon are the least of the Hezbollah bloc’s
concerns. It is also not concerned by the triviality of repairing the damaged
Lebanese-Arab relations, fending for Lebanon as a result of the potential
fallout from further Arab-Iranian discord or the success or failure of Western
efforts to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal.
These elections were held two years after Lebanon defaulted on its international
debt, while its currency has lost more than 95 percent of its value, leaving the
majority of its people living below the poverty line. The formation of a new
government will be the first test of the new parliament and its legitimacy will
be tested further when it is time to elect a new president of the republic in
the autumn.
Against this backdrop, the hoped-for presence of several new independent or
reform-minded members of parliament must be applauded, as this could disrupt the
horse trading between political barons that has characterized Lebanese politics
for decades. However, their presence is unlikely to effect any serious change to
the business-as-usual approach of the bloc that has had the upper hand in
Lebanon for the past three decades, eroding the sovereignty of the state and its
institutions or simply manipulating them to serve its agenda.
• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer
with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current
affairs and diplomacy.
Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political
scene
Paul Salem/MEI@75/May 19/2022
Election results show that voters dealt a serious blow to Hezbollah’s political
allies, favored their opponents, and brought a higher-than-expected number of
new civil society candidates to parliament.
Despite a low voter turnout of 41%, significantly lower than the last elections
in 2018, and despite great division among civil society ranks that failed to put
together unified “revolutionary” movement or national lists, new candidates from
these disparate lists made breakthroughs over established parties and
politicians in 14 seats. Although this is still a modest fraction of the 128
seats in parliament, it shows that change is possible, that a significant number
of voters will vote for change if given a viable alternative, and that the
established parties and politicians are vulnerable.
In a more traditional calculus, the elections weakened the pro-Hezbollah
alliance in favor of its opponents. Hezbollah and its allies ended up with a
minority of only 60 seats, while their opponents of various stripes occupy a
majority of 68 seats. In the Christian community, the Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM) of President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law Gibran Bassil, which is allied
with Hezbollah, saw their parliamentary bloc shrink to 17, and now take second
place to the staunchly anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, which secured a
bloc of 19. The pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad leader in North Lebanon, Suleiman
Frangieh, also saw his influence shrink, failing to secure a majority even in
his own hometown of Zgharta. Both Bassil and Frangieh can no longer claim to
represent a dominant political trend in the Christian community, nor do they
have a strong case to be considered for the presidency.
In the Druze community, long-time pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad politicians lost
to reformist civil society candidates; several pro-Hezbollah Sunni and Christian
candidates in the Hezbollah strongholds of south Lebanon also lost. In the Sunni
community, the previously dominant leader Saad Hariri sat these elections out,
and the Sunni vote was distributed among a wide array of anti-Hezbollah or
reformist lists. Sunni allies of Hezbollah and Assad did very poorly.
Hezbollah and Amal maintained their sweep of the 27 Shiite seats in parliament.
But Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah had made it clear in recent speeches
that Hezbollah’s goal in these elections was to make sure its allies in other
communities did well. In this, it has failed. The decline of the FPM to minority
status means that Hezbollah has lost a strong Christian cover — especially after
President Aoun’s term ends at the end of October. It has lost key allies in the
Sunni and Druze communities, and has lost the majority it previously could count
on in parliament. Of course it remains the dominant party of the Shiite
community and an extremely powerful armed group that does not hesitate to use
force inside, and outside, the country to pursue its or Iran’s goals.
It is fair to say that the results of these elections came as a surprise even to
civil society and reform groups, which had begun to lose hope in the possibility
of change. It shows how much elections still matter, and how much political
mobilization and voting can bring about change, even in a dysfunctional and
militia-dominated country like Lebanon.
In the weeks ahead the parliament has first to elect a speaker. Amal leader
Nabih Berri has been speaker for the past 30 years, and might be so again, but
the election results make his road to victory more challenging. Next, the
president must engage in parliamentary consultations to designate someone to
form the next government. The current Prime Minister Najib Mikati fared poorly
in these elections, but it’s not yet clear who might emerge as an alternative.
The naming of a prime minister and the process to form a government might not
even come to fruition before the next big political milestone, which is the
presidential election that should take place before the end of October.
Hezbollah’s original plan, to try to get one of its close allies, Bassil or
Frangieh, into that position, is no longer viable. As electing a president
requires a two-thirds quorum in parliament — a ratio that no political coalition
has — the country might be bound for a presidential vacuum of extended duration.
Indeed, the country is in desperate need of a new government that can work with
the new parliament to implement the urgently needed economic reforms to secure
an IMF rescue package and begin reversing the socio-economic collapse. Although
these elections have brought significant and positive political change, they
leave the political road ahead still very contested and unlikely to produce
sufficient political consensus to undertake the necessary major reforms. But the
elections do give hope that change is indeed possible in the country, and that
efforts to bring about more lasting and widespread change deserve to be
redoubled.
*Paul Salem, Fadi Nicholas Nassar, Carmen Geha, Bilal Y. Saab, Brian Katulis,
Various Authors
Lebanese elections bring change
What's after Hezbollah's failure
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/May 19/2022
From now on, the pro-Iranian party is likely to use its monopoly on Shia
representation to create a political vacuum in Lebanon.
If the results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections prove anything, it is
that the overwhelming majority of the Lebanese people reject the weapons of
“Hezbollah” and the path that made Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, Gibran Bassil,
the de facto presidents of the republic.
Since the election of Hezbollah's nominee as president, Lebanon has had been
under a dual presidency instead of having a single head of state who plays his
role in bringing the Lebanese together instead of taking them to "hell," as
Michel Aoun himself put it.
The elections revealed that the Lebanese are still pushing back against the
so-called “resistance” path and that they possess a much greater political
awareness than that with which they are usually credited.
It is not easy to achieve such a victory over "Hezbollah" in light of an
electoral law that was tailored according to the wishes of the party and its
allies … or, rather, its proxies.
On the sidelines of the Lebanese elections, there are observations that may be
useful to make.
The top of these is that the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil,
has suffered a major blow. Bassil had hoped to repeat the achievement of the
2018 elections and find himself leading the largest parliamentary bloc in
Lebanon.
He hoped that this would make him the natural candidate for the presidency,
under the pretext that the ballot box had shown him to be the strongest of the
Christian figures.
Bassil's dreams and ambitions came crashing down. Hassan Nasrallah, the
secretary-general of Hezbollah, could not help him increase the size of his
parliamentary bloc, nor achieve some parity between him and Samir Geagea, head
of the Lebanese Forces party, who can be considered the major victor in the
elections. Geagea became the symbol of the true Lebanese resistance to Iranian
occupation. The "Lebanese Forces" will represent a bloc of 22 or 23 deputies out
of 128, but the big question is what can a bloc of this size really do
considering the domination of "Hezbollah" over Lebanese state institutions?
The Lebanese rewarded the “Lebanese Forces” for their stance against Hezbollah’s
weapons.
Here it was the events of Ain al-Rummaneh, near Beirut, in October last year,
that made a difference in the perception of Samir Geagea and the “Lebanese
Forces” at the Lebanese and Arab levels, as they showed clearly that there are
those who are ready to stand up to “Hezbollah.”
Undoubtedly, the failure of such people as Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab is a
severe blow to Hezbollah. It had aimed to infiltrate other sects through the
electoral law, after having made sure that the majority of Shia was under its
thumb. In everything the party did, it miscalculated, especially in its attempt
to exploit the state of fragmentation within the Sunni community. The Sunnis
managed to catch their breath and prove their presence by turning out for the
polls in all of Lebanon and in Beirut in particular.
There is a broad Lebanese front which constitutes the Club to Reclaim Lebanon
from Iranian Occupation, even if such a front still needs better coordination
among its components.
Samir Geagea is not the only Christian who stood up to Hezbollah and all it
represents. There was also the "Lebanese Kataeb" (Phalange party) and its head,
Sami Gemayel, which has established its presence on the ground. There are also
independents from the family of Dr Faris Saeed, who represents a special case at
the national level. It is unfortunate that there are still Christians in Lebanon
voting for the candidates of the "Aounist movement", which covered up for the
collapse of the banking system, the weapons of "Hezbollah", the Arab isolation
of Lebanon and the Beirut port blast.
In the final analysis, the parliamentary election was a defeat for Hezbollah,
despite its recourse to all types of repressive methods to monopolise Shia
representation in the country. How will it react to defeat? The answer is that
it will probably seek to create a vacuum at all levels under the slogan of
“weapons shield corruption.”From now on, Hezbollah is likely to use its monopoly
of Shia representation to create a political vacuum. It will accordingly be
difficult to form a new government, knowing that it is likely that Najib Mikati
will be re-assigned to form the cabinet. There is no Sunni figure other than
Mikati who can enjoy consensus these days when it comes to putting together an
administration. The elections will remain a win for his government, despite all
the flaws already depicted by the media.
Hezbollah will let the country go from bad to worse. It would be akin to the
approach which Iran adopted in Iraq when it disrupted political life there just
because Tehran and the parties and militias affiliated with it did not like the
outcome of the October parliamentary elections.
In pushing the country to further collapse, Hezbollah can count on the attitude
of the President Aoun, who spoke a few days ago, about a "road map" which he had
drawn up for his successor in Baabda Palace.
But does Michel Aoun have a road map other than the one that leads to “hell”?
‘Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon
chance to reorganize’ says spokesman for the American Task Force on Lebanon
Ray Hanania/Arab News/May 19/2022
CHICAGO: The result of Lebanon’s elections should not lead people to believe
that Hezbollah has been undermined but should be seen as an opportunity to
restructure the country’s political dynamics, a spokesman for the American Task
Force on Lebanon said on Wednesday.
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy, explained that Hezbollah
coalition partners such as the conservative Christian Free Patriotic Movement,
headed by President Aoun’s son-in-law Gibran Bassile, lost seats, weakening the
Hezbollah-led group.
AbiNader said that America needs to “de-couple” US policies toward Lebanon from
US policies toward Iran. He said that Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist
organization by the US, must decide, too, if it is Lebanese or an arm of Iranian
regional influence. But Hezbollah did not lose influence in the election, he
said, only its coalition partnership.
“That’s really critical for people to understand. Hezbollah hasn’t lost. Its
coalition lost. One is the Free Patriotic Movement, which is President Michel
Aoun’s party now run by Gebran Bassile,” AbiNader said during an interview on
The Ray Hanania Radio show broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and sponsored
by Arab News.
“They lost seats. The biggest losers, of course, are the Sunnis because they
didn’t contest the election. A number of Sunni candidates won. That’s great.
Some pro-Syrian candidates lost. Some outliers who are not members of any
coalition also lost. What you have here is Amal, Hezbollah, the kernel of their
27 seats is intact. They will look to Marada and other organizations to join
with them in a coalition. But regardless of what happens, if — and this is a big
if — if Lebanese forces can pull together with the Druze, and can pick up with
the independents and the anti-traditional leaders, they will have a slim
majority in parliament.”
He said that the political balance will “shift all the time,” but conceded, “it
is definitely a time of uncertainty.”
AbiNader said that the election has created an opportunity for the Lebanese
people to form a new coalition that will focus on confronting the corruption
that has blocked a full investigation of the Aug. 4, 2020 explosion that killed
more than 218 people, injured 7,000 and made more than 300,000 people homeless.
“The explosion “has never really been investigated,” AbiNader said. Questions
still remain about how much of the ammonium nitrate that exploded still remains
and where it is. He said that the explosion was estimated to reflect the power
of about 500 tons of ammonium nitrate. But, he said, there was more than 2,700
tons at the port and the whereabouts of the 2,200 tons remains a dangerous
mystery.
“If we get a new government in Lebanon, the investigation will go forward,”
AbiNader predicted, noting that two of the government ministers who have called
for an investigation were re-elected.
“There is no full investigation in Lebanon of that bombing, so far,” AbiNader
said.
He said that the Lebanese continue to live under the fear that more violence
could take place.
“There is that fear and the fear is how do we set up a government that can
function that isn’t a provocation to Hezbollah. And that is a real challenge
because the Lebanese forces, the largest Christian party, that will form an
anti-Hezbollah coalition has to do it more than on anti-grounds,” AbiNader said.
“They have to be pro-something. That’s my concern — that Lebanese forces will
see their votes as a mandate to be aggressive and antagonistic to Hezbollah.
That shouldn’t be the target. The target should be an independent judiciary,
complete the investigations, fix the economy, put money back in people’s
pockets, and diminish corruption. That’s what the challenges should be because
that is what people are tired of. Hezbollah will gradually lose its attraction
as it loses its raison d’etre, which is to protect Lebanon against Israel.”
AbiNader argued that Hezbollah, which is a political force and a powerful
militia, must decide whether it is Lebanese or is a force for Iran.
America, he added, must see past Hezbollah in helping Lebanon to recover and
rebuild. The Biden administration, AbiNader said, has been very supportive of
Lebanon, but America needs to do more.
“Let’s be frank. The United States has not really been very smart about the
Middle East in terms of their politics. They have been trying to pivot out of
the region since Obama,” AbiNader said.
“The relationships with the Lebanese and other groups have been hard won. And
they have usually seen Lebanon through an Iranian lens or an Israeli lens and
not Lebanon for itself. And that’s really what we have been fighting to get over
the past 20 years is a Lebanese policy that is built on US-Lebanon interests and
not a Lebanon being seen as something affected by the Iran negotiations or by
Israel’s security.”
The challenge, he said, remains in Congress, where some members continue to
believe that Lebanon is “run by Hezbollah and Iran.”
“We had to show them time and time again that Lebanon has been a good partner
with the United States,” AbiNader said.
“The Congress has increased the amount of humanitarian assistance to Lebanon. It
has increased the amount of assistance to the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces),”
AbiNader said.
“It has made very strong indications of what the US would like Lebanon to do,
for example, vis a vis the elections in terms of being free, fair and on time,
which helped a lot. It has helped Lebanon with the World Bank, in terms of
Lebanon receiving certain loans, for example, to subsidize wheat. So, I think
the United States is doing a lot. But can it do more? We always think it
should.”
AbiNader acknowledged that a stronger case must be made to the Lebanese people
explaining what the US is doing for Lebanon, given the pressures of the Russian
war in Ukraine, economic issues with China, and immigration challenges on
America’s southern border.
AbiNader said that Lebanon is grateful that US President Joseph Biden has
restored the financial support that was stripped by his predecessor, Donald
Trump.
*The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and
sponsored by Arab News live every Wednesday at 5 p.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM
690 and in Washington D.C. on WDMV AM 700. It is rebroadcast on Thursdays at 7
a.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 radio and in Chicago at 12 noon on WNWI AM
1080.
* For the podcast and more information on the radio show visit:
www.arabnews.com/rayradioshow
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on May 19-20/2022
Video interview with Jordan's king:
Iran filling vacuum left by Russians in Syria, says
Tzvi Joffer/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1045814433003067
Jordan's ruler complained about attacks on the country's borders, saying "we
know who's behind that."
Jordan's King Abdullah II stated that Iran and its proxies were filling a vacuum
left by Russia in southern Syria, warning that this could lead to issues along
Jordan's borders, during an interview on Wednesday at the Hoover Institution at
Stanford University.
When asked about Iran, the king stated that "we want everybody to be part of a
new Middle East and to move forward, but we do have security challenges. We're
seeing border attacks on a regular basis and we know who's behind that."
Abdullah II stressed that Russia's presence in southern Syria was a "source of
calm" and warned that Iran and its proxies were filling the vacuum left by
Russia as it focuses on Ukraine. "Unfortunately we're looking at maybe an
escalation of problems on our borders."
Recent reports indicated that Russia was withdrawing its forces in Syria in
order to reinforce its forces in Ukraine, but these reports have not been
officially confirmed.Do the politics, the negotiations that are going on between
Saudia Arabia, the Gulf countries, the United States, does that move Iran into a
more positive light? I hope so. I'm not seeing it on the ground at the moment,"
added the Jordanian king.
'Last month was difficult'
Abdullah II also addressed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and tensions in
Jerusalem in the past month, stressing that Arab leaders in the region realize
that "the last month was a difficult one.""We had Ramadan, Passover and Easter
holidays - but can we afford to go through this again next year?" questioned the
king. "So I hope that the dust will settle in the next couple of weeks and then
[the question is] how do we get Israelis and Palestinians to the table? Not
because of politics but again because of dire socio-economic challenges coming
out of COVID and compounded now with Ukraine and Russia." "What I see in the
past several months is Arab leaders coming together and saying how can we chart
a new vision for our region and it's not just the Arab peninsula," added
Abdullah II. "How do we solve the Israeli-Palestinian issue because no matter
what relations Arab countries have with Israel, if we don't solve the
Palestinian issue it's really two steps forward and two steps back."The king
stressed that Jordan still believes in a two-state solution, adding that it's
"the only solution that allows Israel's integration into the Middle East is when
we solve the issues for the Palestinians."Abdullah II gave the interview during
an official visit to the United States, during which he also met with US
President Joe Biden
Israel arrests Al Jazeera reporter pallbearer
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Israel has arrested one of the pallbearers of slain Al Jazeera reporter Shireen
Abu Akleh, police said Thursday, but rejected his lawyer's claim that the
detention was linked to his role at the funeral. In a raid that has sparked
international outrage, baton-wielding Israeli police beat several pallbearers as
they carried the journalist's coffin out of a hospital in Israeli-annexed east
Jerusalem. Abu Akleh was shot dead during an Israeli army raid in the West
Bank last week. Palestinians and the TV network said Israeli troops killed her,
while Israel said she may have been killed by Palestinian gunfire or a stray
shot from an Israeli sniper. A lawyer for pallbearer Amro Abu Khudeir told AFP
that his client had been arrested and questioned over his role at the funeral.
According to the lawyer, Khaldoun Najm, Israel also claimed to have "a secret
file on (Khudeir's) membership of a terrorist organisation". "I think they will
arrest more young men who participated in the funeral," Najm said. "For them,
the subject of the funeral and the coffin was scandalous." Police dismissed any
link between the funeral and Khudeir's arrest. "We are witnessing an attempt to
produce a conspiracy that is fundamentally incorrect," a statement said. "The
suspect was arrested as part of an ongoing investigation which contrary to
allegations, had nothing to do with his participation in the funeral
procession." Police justifications for the raid at St. Joseph's hospital have
varied. They have cited the need to stamp out "nationalistic" chants and also
said that "rioters" among the mourners hurled projectiles at officers. Israeli
forces frequently crack down on displays of Palestinian identity, including the
national flag, one of which was draped over Abu Akleh's coffin. Police have
vowed to investigate the controversial incident.
UN envoy: US sanctions on Iran worsen humanitarian
situation
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Sweeping U.S. sanctions imposed on Iran have badly impacted the country's
economy and worsened the humanitarian situation in the Persian Gulf nation, a
United Nations special envoy said Wednesday. According to Alena Douhan, the U.N.
special rapporteur on unilateral coercive measures, the sanctions have affected
Iran's main export groups, banks and also several companies and nationals,
including some pharmaceuticals and food production. This has led to inflation
and growing poverty, and depleted state resources for dealing with the basic
needs of people with low income and other vulnerable groups, Douhan told
reporters during a press conference in Tehran. She singled out those suffering
from "severe diseases, disabled people, Afghan refugees, women-led households
and children" as being badly affected by the measures. Douhan, a Belarusian who
was appointed in 2020 and reports to the U.N. Human Rights Council, also said
that the "sanctions have been substantially exacerbating the humanitarian
situation in Iran." She urged countries that imposed unilateral sanctions
against Iran, especially the United States, to remove them. Former President
Donald Trump pulled America out of the nuclear deal between Iran and world
powers, re-imposed sanctions and also introduced new, tougher measures against
Tehran in 2018. The nuclear deal had granted Tehran sanctions relief in exchange
for strict curbs on its nuclear program. Talks in Vienna to revive that deal —
something hat the Biden administration is trying to do — have stalled over an
Iranian demand that Washington lift a terrorist designation on the country's
paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The negotiations nearly reached completion in
March before Moscow demanded that its trade with Iran be exempted from Western
sanctions over Ukraine, throwing the process into disarray. Negotiators have yet
to reconvene in the Austrian capital of Vienna, and it's unclear exactly what
hurdles lie ahead. Despite the deadlock, officials say the urgency to close the
deal has grown as Iran's nuclear program has rapidly advanced. However, over the
past weeks, anger over Iran's worsening economic conditions has mounted amid
price hikes of dinner table staples as a result of a new government policy to
amend the food subsidy system. Scattered protests have erupted over the price
changes in several provinces, with Iranian state-run media acknowledging nearly
two dozen arrests. Bus drivers in Tehran seeking a 10% wage increase walked off
the job on Monday, paralyzing parts of the city, and teachers have also gone on
strike over the past months in cities and towns across Iran. They have walked
out of their classes to press for better pay and working conditions.
Israeli military ID's gun that may have killed journalist
Abu Akleh
Associated Press/May 19/2022
The Israeli military has identified a soldier's rifle that may have killed Al
Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, but said it cannot be certain unless the
Palestinians turn over the bullet for analysis, a military official said
Thursday. The announcement marked a small sign of progress in the investigation
into the killing of Abu Akleh, who was fatally shot on May 11 while covering an
Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank. Palestinian officials, along
with fellow journalists who were with Abu Akleh, have said Israeli troops
stationed nearby killed her. The Israeli army says she was shot during a battle
between troops and Palestinian gunmen, and it cannot be determined who fired the
fatal bullet without a proper analysis. Israel has called for a joint
investigation with the Palestinians. But the Palestinians, who have the bullet,
have refused, saying they don't trust Israel. They say they are conducting their
own investigation and they are ready to cooperate with any country except for
Israel. The military official stressed that while the source of the shot is
still unclear, "we have narrowed down the IDF weapon that might be involved in
the fire exchange near Shireen."He renewed the call for the Palestinians to
release the bullet. If they do so, he said, Israel will "hopefully be able to
compare the bullet to that barrel and check if there is a match." He spoke on
condition of anonymity under military briefing guidelines. The military last
week released the results of a preliminary investigation that offered two
possible causes of death. It said that in one scenario, she may have been hit by
Palestinian gunfire during a fierce shootout with Israeli troops. In the second
scenario, it said she might have been hit by an Israeli soldier who shot through
a "designated firing hole" in a military vehicle at a Palestinian gunman who was
shooting at the vehicle. It said it could not determine the source of fire
without analyzing the bullet. The Palestinians have been conducting their own
investigation. Last Friday, the Palestinian public prosecutor said preliminary
findings show Abu Akleh was killed by deliberate fire from Israeli troops. The
prosecutor said the investigation would continue. Bellingcat, an independent
Dutch-based open-source research firm, has conducted its own analysis of
material gathered largely from videos on social media. It said its initial
findings lent support to Palestinian witnesses who say she was killed by Israeli
fire. Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American and 25-year veteran of the satellite
channel, was killed in the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank. She was
a household name across the Arab world, known for documenting the hardship of
Palestinian life under Israeli rule, now in its sixth decade. The shooting drew
condemnations and statements of concern from around the world. Israel also has
been widely criticized for the behavior of police, who pushed and beat mourners
at her funeral last Friday, causing the pallbearers to nearly drop her coffin.
Shaky Israeli coalition is jolted as another lawmaker quits
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Another member of Israel's parliament said Thursday she was quitting the ruling
coalition, leaving embattled Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in control of a
crumbling minority government. Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi's announcement further
whittles away Bennett's hold on Israel's 120-seat parliament, reducing the
coalition to 59 seats. Two other legislators from his own party have already
bolted. Rinawie Zoabi's departure further raises the possibility of new
parliamentary elections, less than a year after the government took office.
While Bennett's government remains in power, it is now even more hamstrung in
parliament and will likely struggle to function. In a letter to Bennett, Rinawie
Zoabi, who hails from the dovish Meretz party, said she was leaving the
coalition because she said it too often adopted nationalist positions on issues
of importance to her constituents, Palestinian citizens of Israel. She cited
Israel's conduct at Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque, which in recent weeks has been
the site of clashes between police and protesters, as well as continued
settlement building and the beating by police of pallbearers at the funeral of a
well-known Al Jazeera journalist shot while covering confrontations between
Israeli forces and Palestinians. "Enough. I cannot continue to support a
coalition that in such a shameful way hounds the society from which I came," she
wrote. Bennett, who leads a small, hard-line
nationalist party, heads an unwieldy coalition of eight ideologically diverse
factions — from dovish ones that support Palestinian statehood to nationalist
parties and even, for the first time in Israeli history, an Islamist Arab party.
They came together last June with little in common other than their drive to
oust former leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who now heads the opposition. As part of
their union, the parties agreed to set aside divisive issues, like Palestinian
statehood, and focus instead on topics such as the coronavirus pandemic and the
economy. Despite the differences among the coalition, it has managed to pass a
budget, navigate the pandemic and strengthen relations with both the Biden
administration and Israel's Arab allies. But a wave of
Israeli-Palestinian tensions, set off by several deadly Palestinian attacks
against Israel and Israeli arrest raids in the occupied West Bank, and fueled by
repeated clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian protesters at Al-Aqsa,
has shaken the coalition's stability. Mansour Abbas, the head of the Islamist
party, briefly suspended his faction's membership in the coalition over the
events, before rejoining shortly after. Israel on
Wednesday said it would allow a Jewish ultranationalist flag parade to snake
through the heart of the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem's Old City, what is likely
to further escalate tensions. Bennett's coalition
recently lost its own whip, Idit Silman, who said her nationalist values were
being challenged under the diverse grouping. Bennett took steps following
Silman's departure to shore up the coalition and punish defectors, but another
deserter raises questions about the union's stability and how much longer it can
hang on before crumbling entirely. To topple the government, opposition
lawmakers would need to secure 61 votes in favor of dissolving parliament or
forming an alternate governing coalition. Some
opposition members appear to oppose new elections, and it seems unlikely for the
time being that Netanyahu has enough support to bring the government down.
Hamas students celebrate West Bank university poll win
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Hamas supporters celebrated Thursday a landslide student election win at a top
West Bank university, results experts said further points to the Islamists'
growing support in the occupied Palestinian territory. Hamas's Al Wafaa’ Islamic
bloc won 28 of the 51 seats on the student council at Birzeit University,
marking the first time Islamist-aligned candidates have gained control of the
body.The bloc aligned with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas's secular Fatah
movement won just 18 seats.The general Palestinian population has not been to
the polls since 2006. Abbas scrapped elections scheduled for last year citing
Israel's refusal to allow voting in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, which
Palestinians claim as their capital. But Palestinian analysts said Abbas baulked
out of fear that Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, would also trounce Fatah
across the West Bank. Birzeit's vice president,
Ghassan al-Khatib, said some saw the campus vote as "a test for measuring public
opinion", with no general elections on the horizon. Hugh Lovatt, senior policy
fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the Birzeit polls were
perceived as a type of bellwether because the make-up of the student body was
"seen as more representative of Palestinian society".
"The fact that you have a democratic mechanism and the voter pool is seen to be
representative of Palestinian dynamics -- that's why it matters," he told AFP.
Fatah used to dominate student councils in the West Bank. Hamas praised the
results as "a rejection of the normalization" and "security coordination," in a
reference to the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority's ties with Israel. Dr Fathi
Hammad, a member of the group's political bureau, said "the student movement has
proven that (the youth) is the fuel to the revolution."
A year after disaster, thousands flock to Israeli holy site
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Thousands of worshippers have flocked to a Jewish holy site in northern Israel
to light bonfires, pray and dance Wednesday under heavy police presence, a year
after a stampede there left 45 people dead. This year's Lag BaOmer holiday
festivities at Mount Meron appeared orderly, but were overshadowed by last
year's deaths, the largest civilian disaster in the country's history. A
prominent rabbi lit 45 candles in memory of those who perished. Highways leading
to the mountain were gridlocked hours ahead of the celebrations. An independent
commission of inquiry launched after the disaster last year looked into major
safety lapses and overcrowding at the mountaintop site and recommended limiting
attendance and revamping safety protocols and infrastructure.
Attendance this year was limited to 16,000 people who had to secure their
tickets in advance. Police said around 8,000 police officers would be stationed
around the site to maintain order.The site is believed to be the burial place of
a prominent second century rabbi, and has drawn Jewish pilgrims and worshipers
for centuries. The springtime festival was marked by traditional bonfires,
singing and dancing. On Tuesday, police said they stopped a minibus near Mount
Meron carrying members of a radical ultra-Orthodox sect in possession of box
cutters, wire cutters, paint bombs and other tools that officers suspected were
meant to vandalize infrastructure at the site. At least three people were
arrested. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said ahead of the holiday's
commencement at sundown Wednesday that "the government of Israel has made a
large investment in order to allow wide and safe participation.""I ask the
public to act according to the published guidelines and to arrive with a ticket
in order that we can hold the festival safely," he said.
Russian soldier on trial asks victim's widow to forgive him
Associated Press/May 19/2022
A Russian soldier facing the first war crimes trial since the start of the war
in Ukraine testified Thursday that he shot a civilian on orders from two
officers and pleaded for his victim's widow to forgive him. Sgt. Vadim
Shishimarin told the court that the officer insisted that the Ukrainian man, who
was speaking on his cellphone, could pinpoint their location to the Ukrainian
forces. The 21-year-old sergeant could get life in
prison if convicted of shooting the Ukrainian man in the head through an open
car window in a village in the northeastern Sumy region on Feb. 28, four days
into the Russian invasion. Looking subdued, Shishimarin said he at first
disobeyed his immediate commanding officer's order to shoot the unarmed civilian
but had no other choice but to follow the order when it was repeated forcefully
by another officer. Shishimarin pleaded guilty to the
charges during Wednesday's hearing. On Thursday, he
asked the victim's widow, who also appeared in the trial, to forgive him for
what he did. "I realize that you can't forgive me, but I'm pleading you for
forgiveness," Shishimarin said. The woman, Kateryna
Shelipova, said her 62-year-old husband, Oleksandr Shelipov, got out to check
what was going on when gunshots rang just outside their home. When the shooting
ceased shortly after, she walked out and found her husband shot dead just
outside their home. "He was all to me. He was my
defender," she said. Shelipova told the court that
Shishimarin deserves a life sentence for killing her husband but added that she
wouldn't mind if he's exchanged as part of a possible prisoner swap with Russia
for the surrendered Ukrainian defenders of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.
The prosecutor asked for a life sentence for Shishimarin and the trial
adjourned until Friday. Shishimarin, a captured member
of a Russian tank unit, is being prosecuted under a section of the Ukrainian
criminal code that addresses the laws and customs of war.
Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova previously said her office
was readying war crimes cases against 41 Russian soldiers for offenses that
included bombing civilian infrastructure, killing civilians, rape and looting.
It was not immediately clear how many of the suspects are in Ukrainian hands and
how many would be tried in absentia.As the inaugural war-crimes case in Ukraine,
Shishimarin's prosecution was being watched closely. Investigators have been
collecting evidence of possible war crimes to bring before the International
Criminal Court in The Hague.
UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that
could last for years
AFP/May 19, 2022
UNITED NATIONS: The UN warned Wednesday that a growing global food crisis could
last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12
billion in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects.”
Food insecurity is soaring due to warming temperatures, the coronavirus pandemic
and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to critical shortages of grains
and fertilizer.
At a major United Nations meeting in New York on global food security,
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the war “threatens to tip tens of
millions of people over the edge into food insecurity.”
He said what could follow would be “malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a
crisis that could last for years,” as he and others urged Russia to release
Ukrainian grain exports.
Russia and Ukraine alone produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and international economic sanctions on Russia have
disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat and other commodities from both
countries, pushing up prices for food and fuel, especially in developing
nations.
Before the invasion in February, Ukraine was seen as the world’s bread basket,
exporting 4.5 million tons of agricultural produce per month through its ports —
12 percent of the planet’s wheat, 15 percent of its corn and half of its
sunflower oil.
But with the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and others cut off from the world by
Russian warships, the supply can only travel on congested land routes that are
far less efficient.
“Let’s be clear: there is no effective solution to the food crisis without
reintegrating Ukraine’s food production,” Guterres said.
“Russia must permit the safe and secure export of grain stored in Ukrainian
ports.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who chaired the summit, and World Food
Programme head David Beasley echoed the call.
“The world is on fire. We have solutions. We need to act and we need to act
now,” implored Beasley. Russia is the world’s top supplier of key fertilizers
and gas.
The fertilizers are not subject to the Western sanctions, but sales have been
disrupted by measures taken against the Russian financial system while Moscow
has also restricted exports, diplomats say.
Guterres also said Russian food and fertilizers “must have full and unrestricted
access to world markets.”Food insecurity had begun to spike even before Moscow,
which was not invited to Wednesday’s UN meet, invaded its neighbor on February
24.
In just two years, the number of severely food insecure people has doubled —
from 135 million pre-pandemic to 276 million today, according to the UN.
More than half a million people are living in famine conditions, an increase of
more than 500 percent since 2016, the world body says.
The World Bank’s announcement will bring total available funding for projects
over the next 15 months to $30 billion. The new funding will help boost food and
fertilizer production, facilitate greater trade and support vulnerable
households and producers, the World Bank said.
The bank previously announced $18.7 billion in funding for projects linked to
“food and nutrition security issues” for Africa and the Middle East, Eastern
Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia.
Washington welcomed the decision, which is part of a joint action plan by
multilateral lenders and regional development banks to address the food crisis.
The Treasury Department described Russia’s war as “the latest global shock that
is exacerbating the sharp increase in both acute and chronic food insecurity in
recent years” as it applauded institutions for working swiftly to address the
issues.
India over the weekend banned wheat exports, which sent prices for the grain
soaring.
The ban was announced Saturday in the face of falling production caused
primarily by an extreme heatwave. “Countries should make concerted efforts to
increase the supply of energy and fertilizer, help farmers increase plantings
and crop yields, and remove policies that block exports and imports, divert food
to biofuel, or encourage unnecessary storage,” said World Bank President David
Malpass.
Mariupol battle draws to close; fighting in Donbas
continues
Associated Press/May 19/2022
The battle that turned Mariupol into a worldwide symbol of defiance and
suffering drew toward a close as Russia said nearly 1,000 last-ditch Ukrainian
fighters who held out inside a pulverized steel plant had surrendered. Ukraine's
military made no mention of Mariupol in its early morning briefing Thursday,
saying only that Russian forces were still pressing their offensive on various
sections of the front in the east, but were being successfully repelled. In the
eastern Donbas region, which has been the center of recent fighting as Russian
forces on the offensive have clashed with staunch Ukrainian resistance, four
civilians were killed in the town of Sievierodonetsk in a Russian bombardment,
Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai said. Three other civilians were wounded in the
attack Wednesday, and the shelling continued into early Thursday, Haidai said.
On the Russian side of the border, the governor of Kursk province said a truck
driver was killed and several other civilians wounded by shelling from Ukraine.
Separatist authorities in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine said two
civilians were killed and five wounded also in Ukrainian shelling over the last
24 hours.
The Ukrainian fighters who emerged from the ruined Azovstal steelworks after
being ordered by their military to abandon the last stronghold of resistance in
the now-flattened port city face an uncertain fate. Some were taken by the
Russians to a former penal colony in territory controlled by Moscow-backed
separatists. While Ukraine said it hopes to get the soldiers back in a prisoner
swap, Russia threatened to put some of them on trial for war crimes. In the
first war-crimes trial held by Ukraine, a captured Russian soldier pleaded
guilty on Wednesday of killing a civilian and faces a possible life in prison.
Amnesty International said the Red Cross should be given immediate access to the
Mariupol fighters who surrendered. Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty's deputy director
for the region, cited lawless executions allegedly carried out by Russian forces
in Ukraine and said the Azovstal defenders "must not meet the same fate."It was
unclear how many fighters remained inside the plant's labyrinth of tunnels and
bunkers, where 2,000 were believed to be holed up at one point. A separatist
leader in the region said no top commanders had emerged from the steelworks.
The plant was the only thing standing in the way of Russia declaring the full
capture of Mariupol. Its fall would make Mariupol the biggest Ukrainian city to
be taken by Moscow's forces, giving a boost to Putin in a war where many of his
plans have gone awry.
Military analysts, though, said the city's capture at this point would hold more
symbolic importance than anything else, since Mariupol is already effectively
under Moscow's control and most of the Russian forces that were tied down by the
drawn-out fighting have already left.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said 959 Ukrainian
troops have abandoned the stronghold since they started coming out Monday.
Video showed the fighters carrying out their wounded on stretchers and
undergoing pat-down searches before being taken away on buses escorted by
military vehicles bearing the pro-Kremlin "Z" sign. The U.S. has gathered
intelligence that shows some Russian officials have become concerned that
Kremlin forces in Mariupol are carrying out abuses, including beating city
officials, subjecting them to electric shocks and robbing homes, according to a
U.S official familiar with the findings.
The Russian officials are concerned that the abuses will further inspire
residents to resist the occupation and that the treatment runs counter to
Russia's claims that its military has liberated Russian speakers, according to
the official, who was not authorized to comment.
In the war-crimes case in Kyiv, Russian Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old
member of a tank unit, pleaded guilty to shooting an unarmed 62-year-old
Ukrainian man in the head through a car window in the opening days of the war.
Ukraine's top prosecutor has said some 40 more war-crimes cases are being
readied.On the diplomatic front, Finland and Sweden could become members of NATO
in a matter of months, though objections from Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan threaten to disrupt things. Turkey accuses the two countries of
harboring Kurdish militants and others it considers a threat to its
security.Ibrahim Kalin, a foreign policy adviser and spokesman for Erdogan, said
there will be "no progress" on the membership applications unless Turkey's
concerns are met. Each of NATO's 30 countries has an effective veto over new
members.
Mariupol's defenders grimly clung to the steel mill for months and against the
odds, preventing Russia from completing its occupation of the city and its port.
Mariupol was a target of the Russians from the outset as Moscow sought to
open a land corridor from its territory to the Crimean Peninsula, which it
seized from Ukraine in 2014. The city — its prewar
population of about 430,000 now reduced by about three-quarters — has largely
been reduced to rubble by relentless bombardment, and Ukraine says over 20,000
civilians have been killed there. For Ukraine, the order to the fighters to
surrender could leave President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government open to
allegations it abandoned the troops he described as heroes. "Zelenskyy may face
unpleasant questions," said Volodymyr Fesenko, who heads the independent Penta
think tank in Kyiv. "There have been voices of discontent and accusations of
betraying Ukrainian soldiers."A hoped-for prisoner swap could also fall through,
he cautioned. Russia's main federal investigative body
said it intends to interrogate the surrendering troops to "identify the
nationalists" and determine whether they were involved in crimes against
civilians.
Also, Russia's top prosecutor asked the country's Supreme Court to designate
Ukraine's Azov Regiment — among the troops that made up the Azovstal garrison —
as a terrorist organization. The regiment has roots in the far right. The
Russian parliament was scheduled to consider a resolution to ban the exchange of
any Azov Regiment fighters but didn't take up the issue Wednesday.
UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’
that could last for years
AFP/May 19, 2022
UNITED NATIONS: The UN warned Wednesday that a growing global food crisis could
last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12
billion in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects.”Food insecurity is
soaring due to warming temperatures, the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, which has led to critical shortages of grains and
fertilizer. At a major United Nations meeting in New York on global food
security, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the war “threatens to tip tens
of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity.”He said what could
follow would be “malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could
last for years,” as he and others urged Russia to release Ukrainian grain
exports. Russia and Ukraine alone produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and international economic sanctions on Russia have
disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat and other commodities from both
countries, pushing up prices for food and fuel, especially in developing
nations. Before the invasion in February, Ukraine was seen as the world’s bread
basket, exporting 4.5 million tons of agricultural produce per month through its
ports — 12 percent of the planet’s wheat, 15 percent of its corn and half of its
sunflower oil. But with the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and others cut off from
the world by Russian warships, the supply can only travel on congested land
routes that are far less efficient. “Let’s be clear: there is no effective
solution to the food crisis without reintegrating Ukraine’s food production,”
Guterres said. “Russia must permit the safe and secure export of grain stored in
Ukrainian ports.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who chaired the summit,
and World Food Programme head David Beasley echoed the call. “The world is on
fire. We have solutions. We need to act and we need to act now,” implored
Beasley. Russia is the world’s top supplier of key fertilizers and gas. The
fertilizers are not subject to the Western sanctions, but sales have been
disrupted by measures taken against the Russian financial system while Moscow
has also restricted exports, diplomats say. Guterres also said Russian food and
fertilizers “must have full and unrestricted access to world markets.”Food
insecurity had begun to spike even before Moscow, which was not invited to
Wednesday’s UN meet, invaded its neighbor on February 24.
In just two years, the number of severely food insecure people has doubled —
from 135 million pre-pandemic to 276 million today, according to the UN. More
than half a million people are living in famine conditions, an increase of more
than 500 percent since 2016, the world body says.
The World Bank’s announcement will bring total available funding for projects
over the next 15 months to $30 billion. The new funding will help boost food and
fertilizer production, facilitate greater trade and support vulnerable
households and producers, the World Bank said.
The bank previously announced $18.7 billion in funding for projects linked to
“food and nutrition security issues” for Africa and the Middle East, Eastern
Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia. Washington welcomed the decision, which
is part of a joint action plan by multilateral lenders and regional development
banks to address the food crisis. The Treasury Department described Russia’s war
as “the latest global shock that is exacerbating the sharp increase in both
acute and chronic food insecurity in recent years” as it applauded institutions
for working swiftly to address the issues.
India over the weekend banned wheat exports, which sent prices for the grain
soaring. The ban was announced Saturday in the face of falling production caused
primarily by an extreme heatwave. “Countries should make concerted efforts to
increase the supply of energy and fertilizer, help farmers increase plantings
and crop yields, and remove policies that block exports and imports, divert food
to biofuel, or encourage unnecessary storage,” said World Bank President David
Malpass.
Biden meets Sweden, Finland leaders to talk NATO, Russia
Associated Press/May 19/2022
President Joe Biden on Thursday welcomed the leaders of Sweden and Finland to
the White House, as he hailed the application of the once-neutral countries to
join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in response to Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. Biden greeted Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson of Sweden and
President Sauli Niinistö of Finland at the White House with handshakes and
laughter as they met for trilateral conversations on the NATO mutual defense
pact as well as broader European security concerns. His administration has
professed optimism for their applications to join the alliance, which would mark
a significant embarrassment to Russia, despite continued opposition from Turkey.
"I think we're going to be okay," Biden said Wednesday when asked whether he was
confident he could secure their entry into NATO. Russian President Vladimir
Putin has demanded that the alliance stop expanding toward Russia's borders, and
several NATO allies, led by the United States and Britain, have signaled that
they stand ready to provide security support to Finland and Sweden should the
Kremlin try to provoke or destabilize them during the time it takes to become
full members. While neutral throughout the Cold War, Finland and Sweden now
cooperate closely with NATO. The countries will only benefit from NATO's Article
5 security guarantee — the part of the alliance's founding treaty that pledges
that any attack on one member would be considered an attack on them all — once
the membership ratification process is concluded. Public opinion in Finland and
Sweden has shifted massively in favor of membership since Russia invaded Ukraine
on Feb. 24. Because the pact must reach consensus on decisions, each of its
NATO's 30 member countries has the power to veto a membership bid. Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a Thursday video that he remains opposed
to the two countries joining the alliance. "We have told our relevant friends we
would say 'no' to Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO, and we will continue on
our path like this," Erdogan told a group of Turkish youth in the video for
Commemoration of Atatürk, Youth and Sports Day, a national holiday.Erdogan has
said Turkey's objection stems from grievances with Sweden's — and to a lesser
degree with Finland's — perceived support of the banned Kurdistan Workers'
Party, or PKK, and an armed group in Syria that Turkey sees as an extension of
the PKK. The conflict with the PKK has killed tens of thousands of people since
1984. Turkey also accuses Sweden and Finland of
harboring the followers of Fethullah Gulen, a U.S.-based Muslim cleric whom the
Turkish government blames for 2016 military coup attempt.
The objections echo longtime Turkish complaints over even more substantial U.S.
support for Kurds, as well as Gulen's presence in America. U.S. National
Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Wednesday that Finland and Sweden were
"working directly" with Turkey to address its concerns, and that the U.S. was
also speaking with Turkish officials to "try to help facilitate" a resolution.
"You've got a raucous collection of states that all have opinions, that
all have perspectives, that all have interests," Sullivan said. "But they also
know how to and when to pull together and how to settle any differences. And I
expect these differences will be settled.' He added: "I expect that NATO will
speak with one voice in support of Finland and Sweden at the end of the day."
Militant attacks hurt Pakistan relations with Afghan
Taliban
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Faced with rising violence, Pakistan is taking a tougher line to pressure
Afghanistan's Taliban rulers to crack down on militants hiding on their soil,
but so far the Taliban remain reluctant to take action — trying instead to
broker a peace.
Last month came a sharp deterioration in relations between the two neighbors
when Pakistan carried out airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan. Witnesses said the
strikes hit a refugee camp and another location, killing at least 40 civilians.
UNICEF said 20 children were believed to be among the dead.
Pakistan never confirmed the April 17 strikes, but two days later its Foreign
Ministry issued a sharp warning to the Taliban not to shelter militants.
The pressure has put the Taliban in a tight corner. The Taliban have long been
close to several militant groups carrying out attacks in Pakistan, particularly
the Pakistani Taliban, a separate organization known by the acronym TTP. The TTP
and other groups have only got more active on Afghan soil since the Taliban
takeover in August. But the Taliban are wary of
cracking down on them, fearful of creating more enemies at a time when they
already face an increasingly violent campaign by Afghanistan's Islamic State
group affiliate, analysts say.A series of bombings across Afghanistan in recent
weeks, mostly targeting minority Hazaras, has killed dozens. Most are blamed on
the Islamic State affiliate, known by the acronym IS-K. The bloodshed has
undermined the Taliban's claims to be able to provide the security expected of a
governing force.
This week, the Taliban hosted talks between the TTP and a Pakistani government
delegation as well as a group of Pakistani tribal leaders, apparently hoping for
a compromise that can ease the pressure. On Wednesday, the TTP announced it was
extending to May 30 an earlier cease-fire it had called.
The Taliban government's deputy spokesman Bilal Karimi said it "is trying its
best for the continuation and success of the negotiations and meanwhile asks
both sides to have flexibility."
But past cease-fires with the TTP have failed, and already the current one was
shaken by violence last weekend. Pakistan's
frustration appears to be growing as violence on its soil has increased.
The secessionist Baluchistan Liberation Army killed three Chinese nationals in
late April. The TTP and the Afghan-based IS have targeted Pakistan's military
with increasing regularity.
Militant attacks in Pakistan are up nearly 50% since the Taliban takeover in
Afghanistan, according to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, an
independent think tank based in Islamabad that tracks militant activities. The
group documented 170 attacks between September and mid-May that killed 170
police, military and paramilitary personnel and more than 110 civilians.The
United Nations estimates that as many as 10,000 TTP militants are hiding in
Afghanistan. So far, Afghanistan's rulers have done little to dismantle militant
redoubts on their territory.
Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan
Associated Press/May 19/2022
President Joe Biden departs on a six-day trip to South Korea and Japan aiming to
build rapport with the two nations' leaders while also sending an unmistakable
message to China: Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine should give Beijing
pause about its own saber-rattling in the Pacific.
Biden departs Thursday and is set to meet newly elected South Korean President
Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Their talks will touch
on trade, increasing resilience in the global supply chain, growing concerns
about North Korea's nuclear program and the explosive spread of COVID-19 in that
country.While in Japan, Biden will also meet with fellow leaders of the
Indo-Pacific strategic alliance known as the Quad, a group that includes
Australia, India and Japan.
The U.S. under Biden has forged a united front with democratic allies that has
combined their economic heft to make Russia pay a price for its invasion of
Ukraine. That alliance includes South Korea and Japan. But even as Biden is to
be feted by Yoon at a state dinner and hold intimate conversations with Kishida,
the U.S. president knows those relationships need to be deepened if they're to
serve as a counterweight to China's ambitions. "We
think this trip is going to put on full display President Biden's Indo-Pacific
strategy and then it will show in living color, the United States can at once
lead the free world in responding to Russia's war in Ukraine, and that at the
same time chart a course for effective, principled American leadership and
engagement in a region that will define much of the future of the 21st century,"
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.
The war in eastern Europe has created a sense of urgency about China among major
U.S. allies in the Pacific. Many have come to see the moment as their own
existential crisis — one in which it's critical to show China it should not try
to seize contested territory through military action.
Biden's overseas travel comes as he faces strong domestic headwinds: an infant
formula shortage, budget-busting inflation, a rising number of COVID-19
infections, and increasing impatience among a Democratic base bracing for a U.S.
Supreme Court ruling that is likely to result in a roll back of abortion rights.
The conundrums Biden faces in Asia are no less daunting.
China's military assertiveness has grown over the course of Biden's presidency,
with its provocative actions frequently putting the region on edge.Last month,
China held military drills around Taiwan after a group of U.S. lawmakers arrived
for talks on the self-governed island. Late last year China stepped up sorties
into Taiwan's air space. Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, but Beijing
views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to
achieve unification.Japan has reported frequent intrusions by China's military
vessels into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East
China Sea. The uninhabited islets are controlled by Japan but claimed by China,
which calls them Diaoyu. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang
Yi on Wednesday criticized what he called negative moves by Washington and Tokyo
against Beijing during a video call with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa
Hayashi. "What arouses attention and vigilance is the fact that, even before the
American leader has set out for the meeting, the so-called joint Japan-U.S.
anti-China rhetoric is already kicking up dust," Wang said, according to China's
Foreign Ministry.
Meanwhile, South Korea could tilt closer to the U.S. under Yoon, who took office
last week. The new South Korean president has criticized his predecessor as
"subservient" to China by seeking to balance the relationships with Washington
and Beijing. To neutralize North Korea's nuclear threats, Yoon has pledged to
seek a stronger U.S. security commitment.
The Biden administration has warned China against assisting Russia in its war
with Ukraine. In March, the U.S. informed Asian and European allies that
American intelligence determined that China had signaled to Russia a willingness
to provide military support and financial backing to reduce the blow of severe
sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. Biden
administration officials say that the Russian invasion has been a clarifying
moment for some of the bigger powers in Asia as financial sanctions and export
bans have been put in place to check Russia. U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel,
Biden's top envoy to Japan, said the Japanese have stood out by rallying eight
of 10 members of Association of Southeast Nations to back a U.N. vote against
the Russian invasion. "Japan has been a pacesetter that has picked up and set
the pace for South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and others here in
the Indo Pacific area," Emanuel said of Tokyo's support of Ukraine following the
Russian invasion. Biden, who is making his first
presidential trip to Asia, met Kishida briefly on the sidelines of a U.N.
climate conference last year shortly after the Japanese prime minister took
office. He has yet to meet with Yoon face-to-face. The South Korean leader, a
former prosecutor who came to office without political or foreign policy
experience, was elected in a closely fought election.
Biden arrives in the midst of an unfolding crisis in North Korea, where a mass
COVID-19 outbreak is spreading through its unvaccinated population. North Korea
acknowledged domestic COVID-19 infections for the first time last week, ending a
widely doubted claim it had been virus-free.
In recent months, North Korea has test-launched a spate of missiles in what
experts see as an attempt to modernize its weapons and pressure its rivals to
accept the country as a nuclear state and relax their sanctions. Sullivan said
U.S. intelligence officials have determined there's a "genuine possibility" that
North Korea will conduct another ballistic missile test or nuclear test around
the time of Biden's visit to Asia. To be certain, China will also be carefully
watching for "cracks in the relationship" during Biden's trip, said Scott
Kennedy, a China economic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies in Washington. Sullivan confirmed that Biden will use the trip to launch
the long-anticipated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a proposed pact to set
rules for trade and digital standards, ensuring reliable supply chains, worker
protections, decarbonization and tax and anticorruption issues. Known as IPEF,
it's a planned substitute for the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President
Donald Trump left in 2017 and that the Biden administration has not rejoined.
In terms of economic power, the U.S. slightly lags China in the Pacific,
according to the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. But the institute's
analysis shows the possibility that a trade pact could magnify the combined
power of the U.S. and its allies relative to China. Biden's challenge is that
IPEF would not necessarily cut tariff rates or give allied signatories greater
access to U.S. markets, something Asian countries seek.
Biden and his fellow leaders also have their own national interests and
differences over what it means to strengthen supply chains that have been
rattled by the coronavirus pandemic.
The Democratic president says the U.S. must increase computer chip production on
American soil. The shortage has fueled inflation by delaying production of
autos, life-saving medical devices, smartphones, video game consoles, laptops
and other modern conveniences. Yet allies in Asia are talking about the need to
expand their capacity for making semiconductors — a valuable export — in their
own countries.
Source
Prominent Afghans from southern Afghanistan, who spoke to The Associated Press
on condition of anonymity, said the Pakistani Taliban and Pakistani Baluch
secessionists had established several safe houses in the area during the
previous U.S.-backed government's rule and they have remained since the Taliban
takeover. The Pakistani airstrikes in April marked a dramatically tougher
stance. They came after a militant ambush killed seven soldiers near the border
with Afghanistan. Pakistani and Afghani border forces often exchange rocket fire
amid disputes over the frontier — but it is rare for Pakistan to use warplanes
on targets inside its neighbor.
The change came after weeks of political turmoil in Pakistan that unseated Imran
Khan as prime minister. Khan had been an advocate of negotiations with militants
and had campaigned for the world to engage with the Taliban after their takeover
in Afghanistan.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the U.S.-based Wilson
Center said Khan "had a soft spot for the Taliban as well as a principled
opposition to the use of force in Afghanistan."
With Khan now out of the picture and TTP attacks continuing, "we can expect a
stronger Pakistani readiness to use military operations," he said.
The Afghan Taliban are warning Pakistan against further military action,
threatening retaliation. The airstrikes "are not
acceptable," Taliban-appointed Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob warned Pakistan
in late April. "The only reason we have tolerated this attack is because of our
national interest, but it is possible we will not be so tolerant in the
future."The son of the Taliban founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Yaqoob is a
powerful figure in the Taliban leadership, which is struggling to stay united
amid disagreements about how to govern their war-ravaged nation.
The leadership council seems firmly split between two camps: the pragmatists and
hard-liners. Pragmatists have pushed for global engagement and opening of
schools to girls of all ages. The hard-liners want to return Afghanistan to the
late 1990s Taliban rule when women and girls were denied access to most public
spaces and a rigid and unforgiving version of Islam and tribal rule was imposed.
A flurry of repressive edicts of late suggest the hard-liners have the
upper hand, including an order that women wear all-encompassing veils that leave
only the eyes visible and a decision not to allow girls to attend school past
the sixth grade.Yaqoob falls among the pragmatists, according to several
prominent Afghans familiar with the Taliban leadership. Still, there seems no
decision among the leaders on either side of the divide to oust militants on
their territory. "I do not see any quick fix to the Pakistan-Afghan situation.
The Taliban will continue to provide sanctuary to the TTP and hope they can
extend their own influence into Pakistan over time," said Shuja Nawaz, an expert
and fellow at the South Asia Center of the U.S-based Atlantic Council. "So,
expect the situation to deteriorate, especially with the (Pakistan) military
calling the shots on Afghan policy," Nawaz said.
Iraq’s Kadhimi Ends ‘Green Zone Era,’ Vows Restoring
Neighborhoods’ Original Names
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
Iraqi Caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi dropped a bombshell by
announcing that the era of Baghdad’s “Green Zone,” which was set up during the
2003 US invasion of Iraq, is nearing its end. Kadhimi, during a Tuesday visit to
the Municipality of Baghdad, pledged that the Green Zone in the center of the
security-fortified capital would return to its previous era, like the rest of
the capital. The premier’s statements came a day after he dismissed Baghdad
Mayor Alaa Maan over the ongoing suffering of the capital’s 12 million people.
At the Municipality, Kadhimi said in remarks carried by the Iraqi News Agency
(INA) that “the visit aims to follow up the workflow directly,” stressing “his
direct communication with the Municipality in the coming period.”“The concept of
the Green Zone must change, and return to its previous era, with the original
names of its neighborhoods,” he added. The Prime Minister directed “to launch
cleanliness campaigns,” stressing: “We all have to work for a clean Baghdad.”He
continued, “Baghdad is an ancient historical city with a cultural atmosphere,
some of its streets have lost their identity,” stressing “work to restore this
identity.”Kadhimi is the second prime minister to take power after 2003. He must
deal with the file of the heavily fortified Green Zone, which includes
government and parliament buildings as well as the US embassy and a number of
headquarters of Arab and foreign embassies. The Green Zone also includes the
headquarters, offices, and homes of many Iraqi leaders and politicians. Entry to
the area is restricted to those holding special permits. While it is expected
that Kadhimi’s decision will receive a great popular welcome due to the negative
view that the Iraqi citizen holds to the Green Zone, the decision may face
objections from political parties.
Lavrov Discusses with Sheikh Prospects of
Palestinian-Israeli Settlement
Manama - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
Member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)
and the Central Committee of Fatah, Hussein al-Sheikh, met on Wednesday in
Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his deputy Mikhail
Bogdanov.
The meeting touched on latest developments in the Middle East and prospects of
an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. The officials also discussed efforts to
restore Palestinian national unity in accordance with the political program of
the PLO, and means to further strengthen Russian-Palestinian relations, WAFA,
the official Palestinian news agency reported. “Russia’s firm readiness to
continue supporting the efforts of the Palestinian leadership to achieve the
legitimate rights of the Palestinian people in establishing their independent
state within the 1967 borders and to live in peace and security alongside
Israel,” the agency quoted Lavrov as emphasizing. Russia Today reported that
Lavrov conveyed his condolences during the meeting for the death of journalist
Shireen Abu Akleh, stressing the need for a comprehensive and objective
investigation into her murder. The PLO delegation’s visit to Moscow comes two
weeks after a similar visit by Hamas officials, who held talks with Bogdanov.
Erdogan Calls for NATO Support to Establish Safe Zone on
Turkey-Syria Border
Ankara, Qamishli - Saeed Abdulrazzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) members to support his country's efforts to establish a safe
zone on the border with Syria to accommodate refugees and ensure the security of
the southern border.
"We have such a sensitivity as protecting our borders from attacks by
terrorists' organizations," Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling Justice and
Development Party (AK) in parliament. He added that NATO allies have never
supported Turkey in its war against Kurdish armed groups, including the Syrian
Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the most significant component of the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist group
closely tied to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Erdogan added that people
are settling in safe areas in Syria now, calling on regional and NATO allies to
support Turkey in these challenges and ensure it establishes a safe zone. Two
weeks ago, the Turkish president announced a project to resettle one million
Syrian refugees in Turkey in 13 residential communities within the Syrian lands
adjacent to his country's southern borders. He affirmed that the comprehensive
project allows the voluntary return of one million Syrians, with the support of
Turkish and international civil organizations. The Turkish project includes
constructing various facilities such as schools and hospitals. The Turkish
president attacked some Turkish opposition parties calling for the return of the
Syrians to their country, saying it is a "dirty plan" to keep raising the issue.
He added that some "useless politicians who are intelligence remnants"
constantly discuss the Syrian issue, but "I tell them that our party believes it
is our historical and humanitarian responsibility to defend the oppressed who
have sought refuge in our country." Meanwhile, the General Secretariat of the
Kurdish National Council in Syria rejected Turkey's plan to settle one million
Syrian refugees in the areas of military operations under Turkish influence in
northern Syria. The secretariat issued a statement denouncing the "demographic
change" in any part of the Syrian geography. The Council believes the project
contradicts UN Resolution 2254 and creates conflicts among the Syrian people,
noting the urgent need to ensure conducive conditions for refugees and displaced
persons' safe and voluntary return to their original areas.The statement urged
the countries concerned with the Syrian issue to take a clear and explicit
position on the Turkish project and expedite the activation of the political
process to find a final solution to the crisis to ensure the safe return of
refugees and displaced persons to their homes in their original places of
residence.
Pentagon: Most Casualties in Syria’s Baghouz Airstrike
Were ISIS Militants
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
The Pentagon has completed a lengthy investigation into a deadly 2019 strike by
US forces in Syria. The internal US Army investigation focused on an operation
by a special US force operating in Syria, which launched an airstrike on an ISIS
bastion in Baghouz on March 18, 2019.
In a memo released on Tuesday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he was
“disappointed” with deficiencies in the handling of the initial review of the
operation, which he said “contributed to a perception that the Department was
not committed to transparency and was not taking the incident seriously.”That
perception could have been prevented with a “timely review and a clear
explication of the circumstances surrounding the strike.”Austin directed
relevant authorities to improve their way in handling reports on casualties
among civilians. “Protecting innocent civilians is fundamental to our
operational success and is a strategic and moral imperative,” he stressed. The
investigation was sparked last year after the New York Times reported that in
the original strike the US military had covered up dozens of non-combatant
deaths. The report said that 70 people, many of them women and children, had
been killed in the strike. It said a US legal officer “flagged the strike as a
possible war crime” and that “at nearly every step, the military made moves that
concealed the catastrophic strike.”But the final report of the investigation
rejected that conclusion Tuesday. It said that the US ground force commander for
the anti-ISIS coalition received a request for airstrike support from Syrian
Democratic Forces fighting the extremists. The commander “received confirmation
that no civilians were in the strike area” and authorized the strike. However,
they later found out there were civilians at the location. “No Rules of
Engagement or Law of War violations occurred,” the investigation said. In
addition, the commander “did not deliberately or with wanton disregard cause
civilian casualties,” it said. The report said that “administrative
deficiencies” delayed US military reporting on the strike, giving the impression
that it was being covered up.Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby said that 53
combatants were killed, 51 of them adult males and one child, while four
civilians died, one woman and three children. Another 15 civilians, 11 women and
four children, were wounded, he added. Asked if anyone was being punished for
the civilian deaths, Kirby said the investigation did not find the need to hold
any individuals accountable. The probe “did not find that anybody acted outside
the law of war, that there was no malicious intent,” Kirby said. “While we don’t
always get everything right, we do try to improve. We do try to be as
transparent as we can about what we learn,” he said.
China Warns US a ‘Dangerous Situation’ Forming Over
Taiwan
Bloomberg/May 19/2022
Yang Jiechi makes the remarks in phone call with Jake Sullivan
US Navy admiral earlier said Taiwan should step up deterrence
China’s top diplomat again warned the US over its increased support for Taiwan,
showing the island democracy remains a major sticking point between the world’s
biggest economies as Beijing sent more military aircraft toward the island. “If
the US side insists on playing the Taiwan card and goes further and further down
the wrong road, it will certainly lead to a dangerous situation,” Yang Jiechi,
Beijing’s top diplomat, said in a phone call with National Security Advisor Jake
Sullivan. Yang said Washington should “have a clear understanding of the
situation,” according to a statement posted online by his nation’s Foreign
Ministry. “China will certainly take firm action to safeguard its sovereignty
and security interests,” he added. The White House issued a short statement on
the Wednesday call, saying the pair “focused on regional security issues and
nonproliferation.” They also discussed Russia’s war against Ukraine and specific
issues in US-China relations, it added. The Yang-Sullivan call was the most
high-level contact between the US and China since Joe Biden and Xi Jinping spoke
in March, their first conversation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ties
have remained frosty since then, with the nations sparring over Vladimir Putin,
democracy in Hong Kong, forced labor allegations in Xinjiang and a range of
other issues. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said on its website that four
People’s Liberation Army aircraft, including a pair of J-16 fighter jets,
entered its air defense identification zone on Wednesday, skirting close to the
median line of the Taiwan Strait. China frequently lashes out at the US over its
backing for Taiwan, saying it amounts to interference in its internal affairs.
Xi told Biden in the March call that the issue could “have a disruptive impact
on the relationship between the two countries” if it was not properly handled,
and has referred to China’s quest to gain control of the democratically ruled
island as a “historic mission.” Earlier this week, Admiral Michael Gilday, the
top American naval officer, said Taiwan must prepare itself against potential
Chinese aggression through military deterrence that includes getting the right
weapons and training. Gilday said this was the “big lesson learned and a wakeup
call” following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Why Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a US-China Clash: QuickTake
The US has stepped up its backing for Taiwan since the war in Ukraine started,
with a group of senior senators including Republican Lindsey Graham visiting
last month. China responded to that trip by conducting air and naval training
near the island.
Last week, the State Department updated a Taiwan factsheet posted on its
website, dropping a reference to not supporting the island’s independence, and
describing it as “a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse.” It also
said Taiwan was a key partner in the semiconductor industry and “other critical
supply chains.”On Wednesday, more than 50 senators signed a letter urging Biden
to include Taiwan as a partner in the proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,
part of Washington’s efforts to counter China’s clout in Asia. Biden will hold a
summit in Tokyo with the leaders of Japan, India and Australia as part of a trip
to Asia that begins later this week. Those four nations form a grouping known as
the Quad that is largely aimed at countering China’s influence. While the
government of President Tsai Ing-wen asserts Taiwan is already a de facto
independent nation in need of wider international recognition, Beijing claims it
as part of its territory that must be brought under control by force if
necessary. Tsai has played down worries Russia’s invasion could trigger a
similar crisis for Taiwan in the near term. One of the reasons for that is the
leadership in Beijing wants domestic stability before a twice-a-decade congress
this year that is likely to hand Xi a precedent-defying third term in power.
— With assistance by Philip Glamann, and Cindy Wang
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 19-20/2022
Pro-Iran parties in Iraq want to ban ‘Israel
normalization’ - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
Since the creation of Israel, and even before, fascist, nationalist and
religious far-right parties in the region have often used anti-Israel rhetoric
as a way to come to power and maintain power.
Iraq’s parliament, which can’t seem to form a government or decide on important,
basic issues and is in dire need of investment, is wasting time focusing on
Israel.
The reason for this is that in some areas in the Middle East, the use of Israel
as a foil and tool is important because failed states and armed militias backed
by Iran use scaremongering about the Jewish state as a way to distract from
their looting of various countries.
It is in this context that the Iraqi Council of Representatives wasted time on a
draft law that would ban “normalization” with Israel. This is a largely mythical
issue because few voices in Iraq are suggesting such a “normalization.” Iran has
hijacked half of Iraq using pro-Iranian militias – and those groups are
intensely hostile to Israel. While there are some Iraqis who may look with more
kindness on Israel, their voices are marginalized. In addition, when they have
tried to express any interest in peace, they have been prosecuted, persecuted or
hounded out of the country.
The goal now of these anti-Israel activists in Iraq’s parliament is to pass a
bill that would give the death penalty or life in prison for anyone who dared to
even call for normalization with the Jewish state.
“According to the bill, which was published by Iraq’s state media in Arabic, all
Iraqi officials – including those in the northern Kurdistan region, government
institutions, private sector companies and the media – are banned from
establishing relations with Israel or promoting normalization,” notes the New
Arab.
The bill is supposedly backed by those close to the party led by Muqtada al-Sadr
and also groups linked to Iran. The pro-Iranian Fatah Alliance has also backed
this bill. The real story in Iraq is that these parties are likely trying to use
the bill to pressure Kurdish parties in the northern autonomous Kurdistan
region.
“This isn't to say Baghdad hasn't been under pressure to normalize with Israel –
it has, not just externally but within, namely from the Kurdistan region, whose
political elites have warm, yet well-established links with Israel," Middle East
Monitor notes.
"Last year, at a conference organized by a US think-tank held in Erbil, over 300
tribal leaders called for normalization with Israel. However, this was swiftly
condemned by Baghdad and arrest warrants were issued, [and] it was also branded
an ‘illegal meeting’ by the federal government,” the media watchdog said." So
the real story here is that some parties in Iraq want to draw attention to
Israel, perhaps in order to undermine political opponents.
OVERALL, THIS new law and bill may not pass and is likely just a distraction.
Even if it does pass, it doesn’t really matter because some countries already
have anti-Israel laws. These kinds of laws are used merely to bully and silence
anyone who wants peace or coexistence.
The goal doesn't really have anything to do with Israel, but is about trying to
legislate silence – because some of the groups that push Israel-obsessive
activism know that average people don’t care about Israel: They care about how
they are being impoverished at home.
Since before the creation of the Jewish state, fascist, nationalist and
religious far-right parties in the region have often used anti-Israel rhetoric
as a way to come to power and maintain it. They will claim that their lack of
progress at home, even poverty and abuses, are all about “resisting” Israel.
Iran, for instance, uses the claim to “resist” Israel as a way to infiltrate
militias into Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.Anti-Israel activism is a cover for the
drug trade in Syria, for the looting of Lebanon, and for other activities as
well. Groups like the Houthis in Yemen have official slogans against Israel and
Jews, part of an obsessive antisemitic worldview in the region that has for
decades used hatred of Jews as a way to dominate.
Iraq’s parliament is a classic example of this, spending time on a bill about
Israel while the country can’t even agree on basic things like a president and
prime minister.
The Strongman Cometh ...Why Erdoğan suddenly has a problem
with Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Eric S. Edelman/The Dispatch/May 19/2022
Despite the fulminations of the Kremlin’s television propagandists and Russian
bureaucrats seeking to anticipate the dictator’s views, it appears that Vladimir
Putin has “no problem” with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Despite earlier
threats by a variety of Russian officials that the Nordic neutrals joining NATO
would provoke “military-technical” reactions, including the possible deployment
of nuclear weapons, it seems that Putin has bowed to the inevitable after a
calm, respectful phone call with Finland’s impressive and statesmanlike
President Sauli Niinisto. Despite Putin’s retreat, Turkey’s authoritarian boss
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has suddenly interposed his own objections, saying at first
that Turkey was “not favorable” to Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO and
subsequently doubling down, arguing that, “We will not say ‘yes’ to those
[countries] who apply sanctions to Turkey.”
Erdoğan’s view seems to represent a change of heart from earlier Turkish support
for Finnish membership, conveyed to Niinisto in an April 4 phone call and in
bilateral diplomatic contacts, not to mention Turkey’s traditional support for
NATO’s enlargement since the end of the Cold War. The Turkish volte face
reportedly has left diplomats at NATO headquarters in Brussels furious with the
Turks, despite the public statements that all is well and the clear expectation
that the alliance ultimately will move forward with Finnish and Swedish
membership.
In this regard, the Turkish authoritarian and kleptocrat seems to resemble no
one more than former Illinois governor and convicted felon Rod Blagojevich who,
when he found out he could appoint Barack Obama’s successor to the U.S. Senate,
famously said, “I’ve got this thing and it’s f—ing golden. I’m not just giving
it up for f—ing nothing.” Erdoğan sees the Finnish and Swedish application for
membership as an opportunity to accomplish multiple objectives—burnishing his
domestic position by highlighting the important international role he plays and
gaining leverage with both the West and his difficult and complicated Russian
neighbor.
In the first instance, we should recall that Erdoğan and the Turks have done
this before in the NATO context. First in 2009, when then-Danish Prime Minister
Anders Fogh Rasmussen was on the verge of being appointed NATO secretary general
and then again in 2019 when Turkish diplomats blocked NATO defense plans for the
Baltic states and Poland. The pretext for threatening to veto Rasmussen was the
“scandal” over the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammed published by the Danish
newspaper Jyllands-Posten four years earlier. President Barack Obama’s first
NATO summit ended up almost entirely consumed by negotiations with Erdoğan over
measures to placate the Turkish leader’s alleged rage over Rasmussen’s insult to
Muslims worldwide because of his defense of free expression. It turned out that
Erdoğan’s concerns were perhaps more prosaic than principled: He later told
Turkish television that he had relented after President Obama had promised that
Rasmussen would have a Turkish deputy and that Turkish general officers would be
better represented at NATO headquarters.
In the second instance, NATO had drawn up defense plans for Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, and Poland at the latter’s request in the wake of Russia’s annexation
of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The alliance approved
the plans at the December 2018 NATO London Summit, but Turkey blocked
implementation, demanding that NATO recognize the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria
as a terrorist group. After six months of intransigence Turkey finally lifted
its objection under pressure from the rest of the allies.
Erdoğan’s “strongman” need for constant attention and his failure, so far, to
secure a bilateral meeting with Biden or to establish the kind of access he
enjoyed to the U.S. president under both Obama and Trump undoubtedly explain the
Turkish leader’s initial reaction. Just as it took Obama’s persuasive efforts in
2009 to talk Erdoğan off the ledge regarding Rasmussen, I suspect President
Biden will have to spend a disproportionate amount of time sweet-talking and
jaw-boning Erdoğan to drop his opposition to Finland and Sweden. The opportunity
cost will be high since the NATO summit in June should be focused on responding
to Russian aggression and NATO’s new strategic concept in the light of rapidly
changing security conditions in Europe.
Recognition by foreign leaders of Erdoğan’s international role serves more than
to stroke his ego: It also serves an important domestic political need. As
Turkey approaches elections in 2023, Erdoğan’s poll numbers have been sagging.
He is undoubtedly calculating that the NATO spotlight will not just reinforce
his international importance to the Turkish public the but tying the issue to
Sweden’s support for Kurdish nationalists will predictably whip up Turkish
nationalism. That can handily also serve as a distraction from the economic
management disaster that Erdoğan has created in Turkey by his insistence on
keeping interest rates low. The result has been a 70 percent inflation rate and
enormous hardship for the Turkish public and businesses.
Erdoğan, however, is also looking for international leverage with both the U.S.
and Russia and not just personal recognition. As is well known, Turkey’s
purchase of the Russian S-400 air and missile defense system created a crisis in
Turkey’s bilateral relationship with the U.S. and NATO. It led to Turkey’s
expulsion from the F-35 program and the imposition of sanctions under the
Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In the wake of
the F-35 cancellation, Turkey has recently approached the Biden administration
seeking both upgrades to its existing F-16s and a request to purchase new, more
advanced F-16s and associated weapons packages. A preliminary sale of upgrade
kits and missiles worth about $300 million was recently informally notified to
the Congress. Erdoğan may think that holding Finland and Sweden hostage will
provide the Biden team with arguments on the Hill to proceed with these arms
sales packages (both the preliminary package and the larger F-16 package that
the Turks have requested). Erdoğan needs to proceed with caution, however,
because as Mitch McConnell indicated in Helsinki on May 16, there is broad
support for Finland and Sweden in Congress, and many members would like nothing
better than to trade Turkey as a member for the two Nordic states. (There is no
mechanism for kicking member states out of NATO, but this sentiment reflects
Turkey’s loss of any real backing on Capitol Hill—which represents the toll that
Erdoğan’s creeping authoritarianism and reflexive anti-Americanism has taken on
Turkey’s much more robust support in the past).
Finally, Erdoğan may also calculate that creating a ruckus in NATO serves the
purpose of endearing him to Putin and may redirect Russia’s attention away from
the ongoing supply of TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine (one of the most effective
weapons in Kyiv’s arsenal in destroying Russia’s invasion force), thus helping
Erdoğan manage the complicated minuet he has been dancing with Putin—his closest
“competimate”—for several years now.
It is almost certainly the case that Erdoğan and Turkey eventually will yield in
the face of both blandishments and pressures from the other 29 allies in NATO
and allow Finland and Sweden to take their place as capable and responsible
allies, but not before he has reminded the rest of the alliance—once again—that
an authoritarian Turkey remains an unpredictable and unreliable ally in a
crucial geo-strategic location in the midst of Europe’s most serious crisis
since the end of the Cold War.
*Eric S. Edelman is a former U.S. ambassador to both Finland (1998-2001) and
Turkey (2003-2005) and was undersecretary of defense for policy (2005-2009). FDD
is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national
security and foreign policy.
خالد أبو طعمة: تسعي إيران إلى اجبارأميركا على الرضوخ لكل متطلباتها
Iran Trying to Force the US to Meet All Its Demands
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/May 19/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108769/khaled-abu-toameh-gatestone-institute-iran-trying-to-force-the-us-to-meet-all-its-demands-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%b7%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%b9%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a/
Iraqi writer Farouk Yousef pointed out that after the US gave Iran $90 billion
following the signing of the nuclear agreement with the Obama administration in
2015… the bulk of the money… was spent on terrorist groups run by Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as
terrorist groups run covertly in other Arab countries.
[Iran is] trying to delay the signing of the nuclear agreement so that the
mullahs succeed in forcing the Biden administration to accept all their demands,
especially the removal of the IRGC from the list of foreign terrorist
organizations.
“Biden was not ignorant of the wrong way he started [dealing with Iran]. All the
countries in the region were telling him that the resumption of talks with Iran
must include Iran’s missile program and its destabilizing activities in the
region, including the activities of its militias that threaten stability in
Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Biden chose not to listen….” — Ali Al-Sarraf,
Iraqi writer, Al-Ain, May 10, 2022.
“Biden could have told the mullahs that a return to the nuclear agreement would
take place on the basis of three conditions: abandoning violations of the
commitments in that agreement, curbing the missile program… and stopping the
actions of militias that threaten the security and stability of the countries of
the region…. The Revolutionary Guard is directly involved in the civil war and
violence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen…. Iran’s own actions will prove to
him that he took the wrong path.” — Ali Al-Sarraf, Al-Ain, May 10, 2022.
Like many Arabs, Al-Sarraf asked why the Biden administration was not defending
the interests of America’s allies.
“[T]here is no sane person in the region willing to take seriously any
reassuring words issued by [US Special Envoy for Iran] Robert Malley and other
officials in the US administration concerned with the Iranian file. Every child
now knows that these American officials have nothing but flattery for Iran,
especially in light of the cold American reaction to the attacks it carried out
against the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates….If anything has changed,
it is for the worse.” — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Lebanese journalist, Elaph, March
30, 2022.
“How can a US administration gain the trust of its allies despite its refusal to
take note that northern Yemen has become a base for Iranian missiles and drones?
These missiles and drones are directed at the Arab Gulf states and are now
threatening navigation in the Red Sea as well.” — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Elaph,
March 30, 2022.
[T]he removal of the IRGC from the list of terrorist organizations would cause
massive damage to the interests of the US. It will lose all its Arab friends,
who will stop working with the Americans in a number of fields, including the
war on terrorism.
It now remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will continue with
its benighted policy of appeasing the mullahs or heed the insistent wake-up
calls of America’s real allies.
Iran is trying to delay the signing of the nuclear agreement so that the mullahs
succeed in forcing the Biden administration to accept all their demands,
especially the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the
list of foreign terrorist organizations. Pictured: Members of the IRGC march
during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the 1980-1988 war
with Iraq, in Tehran, on September 22, 2018.
As the European Union is trying to revive the stalled talks on restoring Iran’s
nuclear deal with world powers, many Arabs are again warning the Biden
administration against rushing to strike a deal with the mullahs, saying this
could jeopardize Washington’s relations with its Arab allies in the Middle East.
The Arabs are saying that they cannot understand why Biden is prepared to allow
Iran’s mullahs to “humiliate” the US by setting their own conditions for
restoring the nuclear agreement, including the demand to remove the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.
The Arabs are also reminding the Biden administration and the other world powers
that Iran’s mullahs have not changed their dangerous policies that threaten the
security and stability of a number of Arab countries.
Iraqi writer Farouk Yousef pointed out that after the US gave Iran $90 billion
following the signing of the nuclear agreement with the Obama administration in
2015, the mullahs continued to support, finance and sponsor the activities of
“evil forces” in the Middle East.
The “evil forces” refers to Iran’s terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah in
Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthi
militia in Yemen.
Yousef noted that the bulk of the money Iran received from the Obama
administration was spent on terrorist groups run by the IRGC in Iraq, Yemen,
Lebanon, and Syria, as well as terrorist groups run covertly in other Arab
countries.
“It’s clear that the administration of Joe Biden wants to sign the nuclear
agreement with Iran at any cost,” Yousef said.
“However, Iran, which is the beneficiary of that agreement in all cases, has
been procrastinating and extending time in an attempt to impose new conditions
to get more gains. The question is: Don’t the Americans realize that Iran, with
its current ideological system, can only be a state outside international law in
all its manifestations and meanings? Iran, which has supported terrorism in the
region, will not abandon its militias. Iran cannot accept being a normal
country. It will always be a source of chaos and damage to the stability and
security of many countries in the region through its direct intervention in the
internal affairs of these countries.”
Yousef warned that submission to the mullahs and appeasing them would mean that
the US has given up its friendship with America’s traditional allies in the Arab
world. It would also plunge the entire Middle East into more anarchy and
instability, he cautioned.
“Reviving the nuclear agreement without imposing conditions on Iran that limit
its expansionist and aggressive policy and its permanent interference in the
internal affairs of the countries of the region would mean that the US has
decided to forfeit the friendship of those countries… It also means pushing the
region towards chaos.”Yousef expressed concern that Iran seems to be dictating
its conditions to the US administration, “which appears to be submissive to all
Iranian conditions, including those related to its continued hegemony over four
Arab countries [Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen] and its interference in the
affairs of other Arab countries.”
Iran, he added, is “humiliating” the US administration by trying to delay the
signing of the nuclear agreement so that the mullahs succeed in forcing the
Biden administration to accept all their demands, especially the removal of the
IRGC from the list of foreign terrorist organizations.
Another prominent Iraqi writer, Ali Al-Sarraf, pointed out that there is a clear
majority in Congress that tells Biden that he took the wrong path in dealing
with Iran.
“This majority has reminded Biden of what he should have paid attention to, but
decided to ignore,” Al-Sarraf wrote.
“A false beginning cannot lead to a correct ending. Biden was not ignorant of
the wrong way he started [dealing with Iran]. All the countries in the region
were telling him that the resumption of talks with Iran must include Iran’s
missile program and its destabilizing activities in the region, including the
activities of its militias that threaten stability in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and
Yemen. Biden chose not to listen to his country’s allies, including Israel. He
refused to take the reservations of America’s allies into consideration. That is
why America’s allies don’t trust him. They don’t trust Biden because he is
committing a serious strategic mistake that threatens the interests and
influence of the US and the interests and security of its allies.”
Al-Sarraf added that Biden could have told the mullahs that a return to the
nuclear agreement would take place on the basis of three conditions: abandoning
violations of the commitments in that agreement, curbing Iran’s ballistic
missile program because it is an integral part of the threat, and stopping the
actions of militias that threaten the security and stability of the countries of
the region.
He, too, expressed concern over the possibility that the Biden administration
would remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist
organizations.
The IRGC, Al-Sarraf noted, is directly involved in the civil war and violence in
Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
“Worse, the Revolutionary Guard has turned these countries into victims of
corruption and economic and security failure… They have also made tens of
millions of the people in these countries who face the hardships of daily life
in its most extreme forms and fall victim to the emergence of terrorist
organizations.”
Like many Arabs, Al-Sarraf asked why the Biden administration was not defending
the interests of America’s allies.
“The US, while looking after its interests in the region and maintaining a large
military presence there, should take the Iranian threats into consideration, and
even make these threats the most important issue… But Biden’s administration
chose, from the outset, to ignore the Iranian threats and embark on the path of
negotiating with Iran over the nuclear deal. Even if Biden chooses to ignore
everyone and sign the agreement, he cannot later claim that he did not know the
price. Biden will not be able to convince his allies in the region that he has
reached a good deal. Iran’s own actions will prove to him that he took the wrong
path.”Lebanese writer Rajeh El Khoury said that he shared the view that the
mullahs were trying to gain more time before returning to the negotiations over
the signing of a new nuclear agreement.
He also noted that Biden appears to be in a hurry to strike a deal with the
mullahs because of the growing opposition he is facing at home. “It’s strange
that the Biden administration is rushing to reach a deal with the Iranians at
any cost,” he said.
El Khoury pointed out that even as the nuclear talks were underway in Vienna
over the past year, Iran continued to meddle in the internal affairs of the Arab
countries and endanger the security and stability of America’s allies in the
Middle East.
Veteran Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah described the current US
policy in the Middle East as “defective.”
This policy, he wrote, “has encouraged Iran to go far in threatening the
countries of the region and their security with the help of the Revolutionary
Guards.”
“To put it more clearly, there is no sane person in the region willing to take
seriously any reassuring words issued by [US Special Envoy for Iran] Robert
Malley and other officials in the US administration concerned with the Iranian
file. Every child now knows that these American officials have nothing but
flattery for Iran, especially in light of the cold American reaction to the
attacks it carried out against the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”
From Barack Obama to Joe Biden, Kheirallah wrote, nothing has changed in
Washington. “If anything has changed, it is for the worse.”
“The slogan raised in Washington remains that the Iranian nuclear file
overshadows all crises in the Middle East and the Gulf, and that this file has
nothing to do with the practices of the Islamic Republic in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria
and Yemen. How can such an administration, which has abandoned its allies,
including Saudi Arabia, succeed in responding to Vladimir Putin in Ukraine? How
can a US administration gain the trust of its allies despite its refusal to take
note that northern Yemen has become a base for Iranian missiles and drones?
These missiles and drones are directed at the Arab Gulf states and are now
threatening navigation in the Red Sea as well. The Biden administration failed
the Ukrainian test. The tragedy is that it does not want to admit this and does
not want to know why its allies do not trust it anymore.”
Emirati political analyst Salem Alketbi wrote that he, also, was worried about
the collapse of the strategic partnership between the US and its Arab allies.
Alketbi pointed out that the Biden administration made a mistake when it removed
the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations because that only increased
tensions in Yemen and the rest of the region.
“The decision did not serve the interests of the US… It would be a mistake to
remove the Revolutionary Guard from the list of terrorist organizations because
it will lead to the same catastrophic results, will be costly for the Americans
and lead to the collapse of US relations with strategic partners in the Gulf.”
Alketbi advised the Biden administration to conduct a “comprehensive review” of
its role and policies in the Middle East in order to address the mistakes and
not to add to them by committing new ones. “What is needed is not a step that
deepens the dispute with the allies, but steps to restore confidence and bridge
the gaps.”The concerns expressed by the Arabs over the policies of the Biden
administration towards Iran and Washington’s Arab allies should sound a loud
alarm bell in the US.
The Arabs are saying that they have lost confidence in the Biden administration
because its policies will lead to disastrous results and endanger the security
and stability of several Arab countries.
It is clear that the Arabs see Iran as the main threat, by far, to their
security.
It is also clear that a return to the nuclear agreement and the removal of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations would
cause massive damage to the interests of the US. It will lose all its Arab
friends, who will stop working with the Americans in a number of fields,
including the war on terrorism. It now remains to be
seen whether the Biden administration will continue with its benighted policy of
appeasing the mullahs or heed the insistent wake-up calls of America’s real
allies.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Expect another major uprising soon in Iran
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 19/2022
The Iranian people’s frustration with the clerical establishment has reached a
new high, which could endanger the regime’s hold on power. The real threat
against the ruling clerics of Iran comes from within, not abroad.
During his presidential campaign, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made bold
promises that his administration, unlike the government of the former president,
Hassan Rouhani, would be a strong force in “supporting the underprivileged,”
“eliminating absolute poverty,” and “constructing one million homes.” But now,
after less than a year in office, living expenses have skyrocketed under Raisi’s
watch.
The first problem is linked to the economy. The administration recently cut
subsidies for imported wheat, which can lead to price rises as high as 300
percent for flour-based food such as bread. This has sparked protests and chants
such as “Death to Raisi” and “Death to Khamenei” in many cities across the
country. Inflation has reached more than 50 percent, one of the highest rates in
the world. More than 41 million Iranians, in excess of half the population, are
living below the poverty line. When it comes to the countries with the highest
inflation rates, Iran is placed fifth in the world rankings after Venezuela,
Zimbabwe, South Sudan and Argentina.
One of the main problems lies in the fact that while prices of food and
commodities are going up 200-300 percent a year, workers’ wages have remained
almost the same. Nastaran, an Iranian mother and teacher living in the capital
Tehran, explained: “My salary is 3,000,000 toman a month (roughly $100), and the
government just made the price of one loaf of bread 10,000 toman (roughly 36
cents). Me and my children use five loaves of bread a day; this means that half
of my salary will only go to the cost of bread. What about my rent, other food,
the children’s schooling, medical expenses, electricity, gas, water bills? Every
president has promised to improve the situation, but it keeps getting worse.”
Even Iran’s state-owned news outlets have been warning about the economic
crisis, the potential uprising, and criticizing president Raisi, who is believed
to be the cleric who will succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader.
For example, the semi-official ILNA news agency wrote recently: “In less than
two months, high prices have significantly emptied working families’ product
baskets. The minimum wages were raised by 57 percent this year; however, the
average increase in foodstuff prices was more than 200 percent, meaning a 150
percent decrease in ‘workers’ real wages.”
Without a doubt, the regime always resorts to its preferred modus operandi by
responding with brute force in the face of demonstrations. The last widespread
uprising occurred in 2019 — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was deployed
and about 1,500 people were killed. In fact, a member of the IRGC admitted in
connection with the November 2019 uprising: “I am a senior revolutionary guards
officer in Tehran. I volunteered to testify in this court. I witnessed mass
arrests and interrogations. Unfortunately, I was part of the arrests and
witnessed the interrogation . . . The forces were ordered that they were free to
open fire, arrest, interrogate, enter homes that suspects might have fled to.
There was no need for a warrant from the prosecutor’s office. They were told to
confiscate vehicles, destroy vehicles, do anything you can to quell the
protests.”
One of the main problems lies in the fact that while prices of food and
commodities are going up 200-300 percent a year, workers’ wages have remained
almost the same.
It is important to point out that Iranian people’s financial problems result
mainly from the government’s inefficient fiscal and monetary policies; the
leadership’s reluctance to redistribute wealth; economic mismanagement; the
hemorrhaging of the nation’s wealth through spending on terror and militia
groups; corruption among officials; the lack of a robust private market; and a
state-controlled economy that has pushed more people into poverty. The state’s
monopolization of the economy applies to almost every sector. When it comes to
Iran’s economic system, the supreme leader and the IRGC enjoy a considerable
amount of control and shares in almost all industries, including financial
institutions and banks, transportation, automobile manufacturing, mining,
commerce, and the oil and gas sectors.
Nevertheless, the political nature of the Iranian people’s dissatisfaction with
the regime should not be disregarded. People are robustly opposing the ruling
clerics’ authoritarianism, despotism and suppression of freedom.
Indeed, the winds of change are blowing firmly against the Iranian regime inside
the country. The Islamic Republic should be alarmed due to the fact that the
overwhelming majority of the Iranian people are fed up with the clerical
establishment from an economic and political perspective. At some point, the
IRGC and its paramilitary group, the Basij, will not be able to subdue everyone
with brute force, no matter how powerful they are.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh