English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 20/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
For where two or three are gathered in my name, I am there among them
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 18/18-22:”Truly I tell you, whatever you bind on earth will be bound in heaven, and whatever you loose on earth will be loosed in heaven. Again, truly I tell you, if two of you agree on earth about anything you ask, it will be done for you by my Father in heaven. For where two or three are gathered in my name, I am there among them.’Then Peter came and said to him, ‘Lord, if another member of the church sins against me, how often should I forgive? As many as seven times?’Jesus said to him, ‘Not seven times, but, I tell you, seventy-seven times.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 19-20/2022
Lebanon….The Legend Nation/Etienne Sacre – Abu Arz/May 19/2022
UNIFIL chief calls for 'constructive outcomes' on contentious issues along Blue Line
US sanctions Lebanese businessman, his companies over Hezbollah links
Lebanon’s Living Crises Worsen, Long Queues Return after Elections
Lebanon: Eight out of 115 Female Candidates Reach Parliament
Lebanon gets Interpol notice for Ghosn arrest
Geagea: Majority shifted from Hizbullah to forces that agree on opposing arms, corruption
Bread crisis resolved as Economy Ministry hikes prices
Rifi says won't be in LF's bloc but rather an ally
Corm says govt. has last chance to save telecom sector in Friday's session
WHO and Italian embassy sign agreement to strengthen hospital care in Lebanon
Lebanon independents celebrate: 'change has begun'
Bread sold on black market for LBP 30,000 amid crisis
Agriculture specialist explains wheat crisis in Lebanon, worldwide
Israel 'mistakenly' fires interception missiles, says no drone has crossed from Lebanon
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy: "Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’/Ray Hanania/Arab News/May 19/2022
Election losses unlikely to loosen Hezbollah’s grip on power/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/May 19/2022
Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene/Paul Salem/MEI@75/May 19/2022
What's after Hezbollah's failure/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/May 19/2022
‘Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’ says spokesman for the American Task Force on Lebanon/Ray Hanania/Arab News/May 19/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 19-20/2022
Video interview with Jordan's king: Iran filling vacuum left by Russians in Syria, says/Tzvi Joffer/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
Israel arrests Al Jazeera reporter pallbearer
UN envoy: US sanctions on Iran worsen humanitarian situation
Israeli military ID's gun that may have killed journalist Abu Akleh
Shaky Israeli coalition is jolted as another lawmaker quits
Hamas students celebrate West Bank university poll win
A year after disaster, thousands flock to Israeli holy site
Russian soldier on trial asks victim's widow to forgive him
UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that could last for years
Mariupol battle draws to close; fighting in Donbas continues
UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that could last for years
Biden meets Sweden, Finland leaders to talk NATO, Russia
Militant attacks hurt Pakistan relations with Afghan Taliban
Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan
Iraq’s Kadhimi Ends ‘Green Zone Era,’ Vows Restoring Neighborhoods’ Original Names
Lavrov Discusses with Sheikh Prospects of Palestinian-Israeli Settlement
Erdogan Calls for NATO Support to Establish Safe Zone on Turkey-Syria Border
Pentagon: Most Casualties in Syria’s Baghouz Airstrike Were ISIS Militants
China Warns US a ‘Dangerous Situation’ Forming Over Taiwan

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 19-20/2022
Pro-Iran parties in Iraq want to ban ‘Israel normalization’ - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
The Strongman Cometh ...Why Erdoğan suddenly has a problem with Finland and Sweden joining NATO./Eric S. Edelman/The Dispatch/May 19/2022
Iran Trying to Force the US to Meet All Its Demands/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/May 19/2022
Expect another major uprising soon in Iran/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 19/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 19-20/2022
Lebanon….The Legend Nation/Etienne Sacre – Abu Arz/May 19/2022
Below Is the Arabic version of this document in three parts
الوطن الأسطورة … لبنان القداسة والتاريخ والبطولة والرسالة/الجزء الثالث والأخير- التراث
ابو أرز- اتيان صقر/25 شباط/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108748/etienne-sacre-abu-arz-lebanon-the-legend-nation-%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b5%d9%82%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d8%b7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84/

UNIFIL chief calls for 'constructive outcomes' on contentious issues along Blue Line
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Chairing his first Tripartite meeting with senior Lebanese and Israeli officers, UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Aroldo Lázaro expressed his hope to use the forum "to move beyond the delivery of statements to emphasize finding solutions."
The UNIFIL Head made the comments at a meeting held in Ras al-Naqoura, Lebanon. Taking a "practical and pragmatic" approach, Lázaro expressed his goal to "reach constructive outcomes" through the Tripartite structure and UNIFIL's other liaison and coordination mechanisms, a UNIFIL statement said. "The importance of the Tripartite mechanism is underscored by the Security Council as a vital tool to defuse tensions and avoid miscalculations," he told the attendees. "We in this room are responsible for achieving this. To do so will require constructive conversations and looking for win-win solutions," he added. Issues discussed included incidents along the Blue Line, airspace violations, and serious breaches of the cessation of hostilities in violation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1701. Major General Lázaro also called on the parties to move on marking points along the Blue Line that have previously been agreed.
UNIFIL’s Tripartite mechanism was established immediately following the 2006 war to coordinate the withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Lebanon and the handover, through UNIFIL, to the Lebanese Army. It has evolved into a forum to help the Lebanese and Israeli armies "reach pragmatic agreements on contentious issues, and to build trust and confidence between the parties," the UNIFIL statement said. "These meetings have proven essential to managing conflict and maintaining the stability that has prevailed along the Blue Line since 2006," it added.

US sanctions Lebanese businessman, his companies over Hezbollah links
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108773/%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b3%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%a1%d9%80-%d8%b9%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d9%85/
Reuters/May 19, 2022
WASHINGTON: The US Treasury Department on Thursday issued new Hezbollah-related sanctions, designating Lebanese businessman and the Iran-backed group’s financial facilitator, Ahmad Jalal Reda Abdallah, and his companies. Abdallah, five of his associates and eight of his companies in Lebanon and Iraq were sanctioned and added to the sanctions list of the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the department said. Abdallah is a Hezbollah official and an active member of its global financial network, according to the Treasury. He has supported Hezbollah for decades, carrying out commercial activities in various countries where the profits are transferred to the Iran-backed group, the department said. Founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and classified by the United States and other Western countries as a “terrorist organization,” Hezbollah is a powerful group in Lebanon because of a heavily armed militia that fought several wars with Israel. It grew stronger after joining the war in Syria in 2012 in support of President Bashar Assad. The United States said Abdallah used his senior employees and relatives to establish new businesses throughout the Middle East on behalf of Hezbollah. Hezbollah on Sunday faced an electoral setback when the group and its allies lost their parliamentary majority in elections in Lebanon.

Lebanon’s Living Crises Worsen, Long Queues Return after Elections
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al Awsat/May 19/2022
Lebanon’s living crises resurfaced only two days after the parliamentary elections were held. Long queues of people waiting in front of bakeries and gas stations returned, electricity supply declined due to fuel shortages, and the exchange rate of the dollar against the local currency rose to record levels not seen in five months. In hopes of curbing the spike in exchange rates, Lebanon’s central bank released a statement confirming it will continue to allow banks to purchase dollars with no ceiling via the bank's Sayrafa exchange platform until the end of July. Moreover, authorities rushed to intervene in securing fuel for power production plants. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday received a phone call from the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who congratulated him on the holding of the parliamentary elections. He also notified him that Iraq will continue to supply Lebanon with the fuel needed to produce electricity. Nevertheless, Lebanon’s national electricity company said that it will cut its output further in the coming days, after burning through most of its fuel supplies during Sunday’s election. EDL wrote that it “consumed its fuel reserves at a faster pace” during “the period of the parliamentary election”. Lebanon was witnessing a host of renewed crises on Wednesday against the backdrop of a continuous surge of the dollar exchange rate on the black market. For the first time in five months, the exchange rate hit LBP 31,000 to the dollar.
The hike confused Lebanon’s markets and increased speculation with some shops closing their doors in the suburbs of Beirut to prevent additional losses. “Gasoline is available in the depots of the companies and in ships present at sea. We are not in a fuel crisis in Lebanon, because the issue is related to some delay in the completion of bank transactions aimed at providing the importing companies with dollars through the Sayrafa platform,” said a top member of the fuel station owners syndicate of Lebanon, George Brax. “The issue should be solved quickly… Companies are distributing gasoline in limited quantities and some stations ran out due to the delay in gasoline deliveries,” Brax added.

Lebanon: Eight out of 115 Female Candidates Reach Parliament
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/May 19/2022
Only eight women out of 115 candidates nominated by traditional parties, opposition groups and civil society reached the Lebanese parliament, amid calls for the adoption of a law that defines women’s quota. However, this year’s winners have broken a decades-old custom in Lebanon – that is parliamentary inheritance. In fact, since 1963, a female candidate would usually enter Parliament following the death of her husband or father, inheriting his seat. The first Lebanese woman deputy is Mirna Al-Boustani, who arrived unopposed after a by-election that took place following the death of her father, Emile Al-Boustani in 1963. Other women followed the same path, including Nouhad Said, wife of former MP Antoine Said, Nayla Mouawad, wife of former President Rene Mouawad, and Solange Gemayel, wife of former President Bachir Gemayel. Women, who achieved victory in the recent legislative elections, are distributed as follows: 3 deputies who were in the previous parliament, including Paula Yacoubian (independent), Enaya Ezzeddine (Amal Movement) and Strida Geagea (the Lebanese Forces Party), three deputies that represent the change movement, including Najat Saliba, Halima Al-Qaaqour and Cynthia Zarazir, in addition to Ghada Ayoub, who is affiliated with the Lebanese Forces party, and former Minister Nada Al-Boustani, who represents the Free Patriotic Movement.In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Najat Saliba, the elected representative of the Chouf-Aley constituency (from the opposition groups), said that she was disappointed by the fact that only 8 women entered Parliament this year. “We had hoped that more women would reach Parliament and that their representation would at least equal that in Arab countries,” she said, stressing, however, that the new female deputies have won with “high merit” and would “work as they should.”Saliba rejected claims that women do not need a quota to run for the elections. “These are illogical arguments. In all countries, in which women are well represented in parliament, a quota law was passed; then, after it becomes natural and people get used to the idea, the law can be canceled.”She added that the quota would not mean specifying a certain number of women candidates to Parliament in each list, but rather setting a percentage that would represent the minimum number of female deputies. In this regard, Saliba stressed that the percentage should not be less than 30 percent, saying: “Men themselves should not accept this meager representation and push to change this reality.”

Lebanon gets Interpol notice for Ghosn arrest
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Lebanon has received an Interpol red notice for the arrest of ex-Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn at France's request, but it is unlikely to extradite him, a court official said Thursday. "Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat has received from Interpol a red notice... against Ghosn based on an international arrest warrant issued by France" last month, the official told the AFP news agency. The prosecutor "will set, within the coming days, and perhaps early next week, a date to summon and question Ghosn," said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Interpol notices, which are not international arrest warrants, ask authorities worldwide to provisionally detain people pending possible extradition or other legal actions. Interpol issues them at the request of a member country. The notice against Ghosn is a test for Lebanon, which does not extradite its citizens and has banned Ghosn from leaving its territory. According to the court official, Oueidat could either respond by issuing an immediate warrant for Ghosn's arrest or he could hold off until his case is transferred from France to Lebanon. If the crimes attributed to him by France are deemed "punishable by Lebanese law, he can be tried before Lebanese courts," the official said, adding however that extradition was unlikely. "Lebanon will not agree to extradite Ghosn, who is of Lebanese origin, to France because the law prevents it," the official said. France sought the arrest of Ghosn last month over suspect payments of some 15 million euros ($16.3 million) between the Renault-Nissan automaker alliance that Ghosn once headed and its dealer in Oman, Suhail Bahwan Automobiles. The allegations against Ghosn, 68, include misuse of company assets, money laundering and corruption. Ghosn -- who holds French, Lebanese and Brazilian passports -- was initially due to stand trial in Japan, following his detention there in 2018, but he jumped bail and fled to Lebanon..

Geagea: Majority shifted from Hizbullah to forces that agree on opposing arms, corruption
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Thursday disputed Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s announcement that “no camp has the parliamentary majority,” noting that the LF and the so-called change forces are a majority seeing that they agree on “sovereignty” and on opposing corruption and Hizbullah’s arms.“The elections results were resounding and Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement lost the majority,” Geagea said at a press conference that followed a meeting for the LF’s Strong Republic bloc. “The Movement of lies, distortion and deception makes you delve into details to clarify the identity of the biggest bloc in parliament, and if I were in the position of (FPM chief Jebran) Bassil, I would have chosen a place in the 17th floor below ground to sit in. How does he have the audacity to claim victory?” Geagea added. “We are the biggest bloc in parliament and we will shoulder our responsibility accordingly. It turns out that we have to clarify to the people that our bloc is comprised of 19 members, whereas they have an 18-member bloc that includes Mohammed Yahia,” the LF leader said. He also noted that the votes of the FPM’s allies contributed to the win of Salim Aoun in Zahle, Charbel Maroun in West Bekaa/Rashaya, Samer al-Toum in Baalbek-Hermel and Edgard Trabulsi in Beirut’s second district. Turning to the issue of electing a new parliament speaker, Geagea said the LF “has very clear characteristics for the parliament speaker that do not apply to Speaker Nabih Berri.”“Any serious candidate must pledge to accurately implement parliament’s bylaws, endorse electronic voting, not to close parliament under any circumstances, and to fully return the strategic decision to the government, that’s why we won’t vote for Berri,” Geagea added. Asked about the possibility of joining a national unity government, Geagea described such governments as “national soup governments.”“The national unity governments lacked unity and were not national. We are against any national unity government,” the LF leader added. As for the deputy speaker post, Geagea stressed that the LF’s elected MP Ghassan Hasbani “enjoys all the characteristics that entitle him to be deputy speaker,” adding that the LF is “open to negotiations” but “will never bargain over its political project.”

Bread crisis resolved as Economy Ministry hikes prices
Naharnet/May 19/2022
The head of the flour mills syndicate in Lebanon announced Thursday that the bread crisis in the country has been resolved, adding that bread will be available in the market as of tomorrow. The Economy Ministry had earlier on Thursday hiked the price of flat Arabic bread, the main staple in Lebanon. According to the new prices, a small packet of bread (388 grams) will now sell for LBP 8,000, a medium packet (855 grams) will sell for LBP 13,000 and a large packet (1,095 grams) will sell for LBP 16,000. “The new pricing has been necessitated by the huge surge in the prices of fuel, which directly impact the costs of producing flour and bread as well as transportation costs,” the Ministry said.
It also cited the global increase in the price of wheat due to the Ukrainian crisis.

Rifi says won't be in LF's bloc but rather an ally
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Former Justice Minister and newly elected MP Ashraf Rifi has said that he will not be within the Lebanese Forces parliamentary coalition, but will be an ally. Rifi told Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, in remarks published Thursday, that he will take part in a "broad sovereign and patriotic front that refuses Hizbullah's weapons and Iran's hegemony."Saying that a political confrontation against "Iran's hegemony" is coming, the ex-minister accused the Free Patriotic Movement of being a "largely corrupt" party and Hizbullah of being "the biggest corrupt" party.

Corm says govt. has last chance to save telecom sector in Friday's session
Naharnet/May 19/2022
Telecommunications Minister Johnny Corm on Thursday said Cabinet has a “last chance” to save the telecom sector from collapse in Friday’s session, warning that his resignation is on the table if no action is taken. “If the decree of hiking telecom tariffs is not approved, do not hold me responsible. The elections are over and the issue no longer bears politicization. The failure to approve the tariff will affect citizens in a more negative manner and in the name of the Lebanese economy we are raising our voices,” Corm said at a press conference. “Cabinet has the last chance tomorrow to halt the collapse of the sector through hiking the tariffs of the cellular sector, seeing as without internet we will have no schools, hospitals or economy, and without economy Lebanon cannot exist,” Corm warned. “If my suggestion is not endorsed, my resignation will be on the table, because telecommunications has no alternative, and it is my duty to implement the laws,” the minister added, stressing that rescuing the sector is an “urgent” manner.

WHO and Italian embassy sign agreement to strengthen hospital care in Lebanon

Naharnet/May 19/2022
The World Health Organization representative in Lebanon, Dr. Iman Shankiti, and the Italian Ambassador in Beirut, Nicoletta Bombardiere, signed an agreement Thursday at the Italian Embassy in Beirut worth 1,616,000 euros, which is aimed at supporting the strengthening of public health systems in Lebanon.
"It has two main pillars: the first is improving the government’s regulatory capacity in terms of access to quality medications, by expanding the pharmaceuticals bar code system at the national level, and the second is enhancing the capacity of public hospitals to deliver quality services, by supporting selected public hospitals in terms of emergency care capacity," a joint statement said. “This generous fund is a continuation of the Italian government’s support to the health system in Lebanon. As always we remain true to our motto that health should be available for all. And I like to add that no one should be left behind,” said Shankiti. This project is implemented by WHO in close coordination with the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) in Lebanon in line with the Ministry’s priorities. Nicoletta Bombardiere, Ambassador of Italy in Lebanon, said: “The goal of the Italian Cooperation is to contribute to global health by promoting universal health coverage, equity and access to health for all. Strengthening the public health system and improving quality health services are key examples of our strategy in this sector in Lebanon.”Alessandra Piermattei, Director of AICS (Italian Agency for Development Cooperation) Beirut, said: “For the Italian Cooperation, health is an essential aspect of the social and economic development of the population. For this reason, we consider access to medicine and health care very important in the current difficult context in Lebanon.”"The government of Italy has always been at the forefront of supporting the Lebanese people by providing generous contributions for to the strengthening of the health system, both in terms of governance as well as infrastructure, and in terms of improving the quality of care, especially in emergency care," the statement said. Furthermore, the Government of Italy provided an emergency donation of pediatric cancer medications, with a value of 500,000 euros, that were delivered to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health through the World Health Organization.

Lebanon independents celebrate: 'change has begun'
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
When Firas Hamdan was injured at a protest near Lebanon's parliament two years ago, the then activist never imagined he would one day return as a lawmaker. Hamdan, one of 13 independent politicians who emerged from a mass anti-government protest movement in 2019, made it to parliament on a reformist platform at elections on Sunday. The 35-year-old lawyer and another independent, Elias Jrade, both snatched seats from allies of the powerful Hizbullah in one of its south Lebanon strongholds -- a first in three decades. It was a breakthrough at the first election since the Mediterranean country was plunged into a deep economic crisis that has stoked popular fury with the hereditary and graft-tainted ruling class. "To those who protested and clashed with authorities, those who were beaten by security forces, I say: 'Today one of those victims is in parliament'," Hamdan told AFP. Speaking at his family home in the village of Kfeir, he vowed to fight for the rights of ordinary Lebanese who have been left behind. Hamdan was hit in the chest by a lead pellet in 2020 during a demonstration near parliament, days after a deadly explosion struck Beirut's port. At the time, rights groups said security forces and men dressed in civilian clothing fired rubber-tipped bullets and tear gas canisters into the crowd. But on Tuesday after the election results came in, jubilation was in the air as exhausted friends gathered in his backyard to celebrate. Youths aspiring for change in Lebanon have rejoiced at the victories of Hamdan and Jrade.Hamdan won against unpopular banker Marwan Kheireddine, while Jrade nabbed a seat held since 1992 by pro-Syrian regime politician Assaad Hardan.
Political lineage
In 2019 Hamdan was among hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who protested against the entrenched ruling class, widely blamed for the country's economic collapse. "We fought against an alliance of banks and the political class... to show there is an opposition in the south, to break the political hegemony imposed on us, and we succeeded," he said. A dashing young man and an eloquent speaker, Hamdan hopes he will be able to pave the way for a new style of politics in Lebanon. But the road ahead is strewn with difficulties in a country where the system favors sectarian allegiances and power is often inherited. "We want to build a nation where there is rule of law... to restore people's confidence in the country so that it does not remain a place of death and migration," he said. An economic meltdown has pushed many middle-class Lebanese to emigrate in search of a better future. Some of Lebanon's most disadvantaged people have tried to reach Europe on rickety boats -- a treacherous and often deadly route. Hamdan's father Ismael, a former brigadier general, said he was proud of his "self-made" son. "Officials must understand that change has begun," he said, standing in front of a large portrait of himself in military uniform. A few kilometers (miles) away in the village of Ibl al-Saqi, Jrade's family welcomed well-wishers who filled the house with bouquets of flowers and cheerful chatter. But the newly elected MP, also an eye surgeon, was busy tending to patients in Beirut.
'Drowning'
Jrade's friends and family who gathered in his living room lavished him with praise. "We voted (for independents) like we were clinging to a piece of wood to keep us from drowning," said retired teacher Ibrahim Rizk, as he sipped on his coffee. A Harvard university graduate with a passion for farming, Jrade is well-liked in his community because he is seen as humble.When he is not working the land and raising poultry and fish in his farm, the surgeon spends time tending to patients between Lebanon and Dubai. "Many people asked me: 'You're a famous doctor and an honest man, what are you doing?' as if decent professionals had no place in politics."The soft-spoken surgeon said he hoped to break that stereotype. In a country rife with nepotism and corruption, he said "officials should make a decent living from their hard work."The father-of-two intends to pursue his political career with the same passion he has for farming and medicine. "We are a dynamic movement, we are a revolution... We tell everyone: 'liberate yourselves'," he said. Jrade said he is aware that he will face challenges. "We may not be a life raft, but we will create a glimmer of hope for the future... to build the Lebanon that we dream of."

Bread sold on black market for LBP 30,000 amid crisis
Naharnet/May 19/2022
On Thursday, bags of Arabic bread were being sold on black market for up to LBP30,000 per bag, the National News Agency said, as stores and supermarkets in Nabatiyeh only received a scarce quantity. Six mills had stopped operating, according to Antoine Seif, the head of the Syndicate of Bakery Owners in Mount Lebanon, as the central bank failed to pay for wheat at the silos. According to Economy Minister Amin Salam, a line of credit of $21 million is needed to subsidize the quantity of wheat. Head of the National Federation of Worker and Employee Trade Unions in Lebanon Hussein Wehbe Mogharbel said workers cannot afford going to work anymore as fuel prices surged in the past days, with a continuous drop of the LBP exchange rate on the black market. Mogharbel urged the government to "protect the food security of the Lebanese" and to "deter those who are threatening the citizens' livelihood."
"Some merchants and station owners are getting rich at the expense of the poor," Mogharbel said. Salam had warned that measures will be taken against “mills that might monopolize the subsidized flour.”He reassured that the bread subsidization will not be lifted, adding that he will ask the Ministry of Finance to pay for the wheat ships in an upcoming Cabinet session on Friday. Ali Ibrahim, the head of the Syndicate of Bakery Owners in Lebanon said the bread issue cannot be postponed until Friday's session but must be solved as soon as possible. He added that the price of an Arabic bread bag will increase by LBP 2,000 due to the surge of the dollar exchange rate on the black market. The Lebanese Lira had further dropped in the recent days, reaching 30,600 Thursday against the dollar.

Agriculture specialist explains wheat crisis in Lebanon, worldwide
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Consumed daily by billions of people around the world in bread and other flour-based products, wheat is a basic food staple, making current record prices for the cereal a global concern. Low rainfall or droughts in major producing countries were already causing worries before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February sent markets soaring. Since then, wheat-exporting powerhouse Ukraine has struggled to sell and sow its crops, putting consumers in poor countries at risk of poverty and even famine. Sebastien Abis, head of the Demeter agricultural think tank in Paris and an expert at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, explains what's at stake:
- Is it possible to replace wheat with something else? -
"It's very difficult. Wheat is the most important cereal for global food security: it is eaten by billions of humans in the form of bread, flour or semolina. "Corn is grown in larger quantities but is mostly used for animal feed or for industrial purposes. "Beyond its nutritional qualities, wheat is a very social and democratic product, enabling people to make low-cost food -- and it is often subsidized."
- But prices are putting it beyond the reach of consumers in some countries such as Lebanon? -
"Yes, because of shortages and because you can't produce it just anywhere. You can grow it in temperate climates, but there are only a dozen countries that produce a lot and can export it, particularly Russia, Ukraine, the United States, Australia. "In recent years, the United States has produced less and less because they are switching to corn and soya . After the Soviet period, the two countries that surged ahead were Ukraine and Russia. "Ukraine accounted for 12-13 percent of global exports in recent years."
- Is the lack of Ukrainian production the reason for the current situation? -
"We have at the same time a dreadful geopolitical situation, with multilateralism faltering, to which we must add worrying climatic events, with droughts in the southern Mediterranean basin, worries in the United States and in Europe. "India, which had an exceptional harvest last year and reserves that enabled it to sell more on the markets, has been hit with a terrible drought and will not be able to export. "Prices that were already high before the war are now exploding: wheat reached 440 euros ($463) a ton on the Euronext market on Monday." - That came after India announced it would no longer export wheat. Why? -
"India had announced a rather ambitious target of exporting 10 million tons. It had sold around 3-3.5 million tons before it put its export ban in place, so one of the questions is whether it will honor its commitments. "The situation is tense because there's no country that can put more than usual into the export market. Perhaps Russia will if it has a good harvest. "But even if the war stopped, Ukraine's production and exports will not bounce back immediately."- Have we reached the peak of the crisis, ahead of the harvests in the U.S. and Europe this summer? "We have real long-term risks. We still haven't seen all the shocks, because on global markets for the last two months we've been seeing fulfilments of contracts signed before the Russian invasion. We're now entering the hard part."
- What about stocks? -
"For wheat, we have around 270 million tons for a planet that consumes around 800 million a year. Around half are in China which has one year's consumption in reserve. Excluding China, cereal stocks are at their lowest level in 25 years. "We need international solidarity and cooperation. We can't leave countries to struggle on their own for food security but at the same time you can't be surprised that some countries are looking out for themselves first and foremost.
"We need to produce everywhere where we can produce, notably in Africa. But for that we need peace and security".

Israel 'mistakenly' fires interception missiles, says no drone has crossed from Lebanon
Naharnet/May 19/2022
A blast was heard on the southern border Thursday as Israel said it accidently fired interception missiles due to a "misidentification."
"No drone had crossed from Lebanon," the Israeli army said. Alert sirens were activated in Israel’s upper Galilee region, on the border with Lebanon, as the Iron Dome's interceptors shot at an Israeli aircraft, the times of Israel said. "The military did not say whether the craft was destroyed but Hebrew media reports indicated it was not," the Israeli daily said. "The situation has returned to normal," Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said in a tweet. Two days ago, the Israeli army said it had “detected” a Hizbullah drone that crossed from Lebanon into Israel.

Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy: "Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’
Ray Hanania/Arab News/May 19/2022
CHICAGO: The result of Lebanon’s elections should not lead people to believe that Hezbollah has been undermined but should be seen as an opportunity to restructure the country’s political dynamics, a spokesman for the American Task Force on Lebanon said on Wednesday.
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy, explained that Hezbollah coalition partners such as the conservative Christian Free Patriotic Movement, headed by President Aoun’s son-in-law Gibran Bassile, lost seats, weakening the Hezbollah-led group.
AbiNader said that America needs to “de-couple” US policies toward Lebanon from US policies toward Iran. He said that Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US, must decide, too, if it is Lebanese or an arm of Iranian regional influence. But Hezbollah did not lose influence in the election, he said, only its coalition partnership.
“That’s really critical for people to understand. Hezbollah hasn’t lost. Its coalition lost. One is the Free Patriotic Movement, which is President Michel Aoun’s party now run by Gebran Bassile,” AbiNader said during an interview on The Ray Hanania Radio show broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and sponsored by Arab News.
“They lost seats. The biggest losers, of course, are the Sunnis because they didn’t contest the election. A number of Sunni candidates won. That’s great. Some pro-Syrian candidates lost. Some outliers who are not members of any coalition also lost. What you have here is Amal, Hezbollah, the kernel of their 27 seats is intact. They will look to Marada and other organizations to join with them in a coalition. But regardless of what happens, if — and this is a big if — if Lebanese forces can pull together with the Druze, and can pick up with the independents and the anti-traditional leaders, they will have a slim majority in parliament.”
He said that the political balance will “shift all the time,” but conceded, “it is definitely a time of uncertainty.”
AbiNader said that the election has created an opportunity for the Lebanese people to form a new coalition that will focus on confronting the corruption that has blocked a full investigation of the Aug. 4, 2020 explosion that killed more than 218 people, injured 7,000 and made more than 300,000 people homeless.
“The explosion “has never really been investigated,” AbiNader said. Questions still remain about how much of the ammonium nitrate that exploded still remains and where it is. He said that the explosion was estimated to reflect the power of about 500 tons of ammonium nitrate. But, he said, there was more than 2,700 tons at the port and the whereabouts of the 2,200 tons remains a dangerous mystery.
“If we get a new government in Lebanon, the investigation will go forward,” AbiNader predicted, noting that two of the government ministers who have called for an investigation were re-elected.
“There is no full investigation in Lebanon of that bombing, so far,” AbiNader said.
He said that the Lebanese continue to live under the fear that more violence could take place.
“There is that fear and the fear is how do we set up a government that can function that isn’t a provocation to Hezbollah. And that is a real challenge because the Lebanese forces, the largest Christian party, that will form an anti-Hezbollah coalition has to do it more than on anti-grounds,” AbiNader said.
“They have to be pro-something. That’s my concern — that Lebanese forces will see their votes as a mandate to be aggressive and antagonistic to Hezbollah. That shouldn’t be the target. The target should be an independent judiciary, complete the investigations, fix the economy, put money back in people’s pockets, and diminish corruption. That’s what the challenges should be because that is what people are tired of. Hezbollah will gradually lose its attraction as it loses its raison d’etre, which is to protect Lebanon against Israel.”
AbiNader argued that Hezbollah, which is a political force and a powerful militia, must decide whether it is Lebanese or is a force for Iran.
America, he added, must see past Hezbollah in helping Lebanon to recover and rebuild. The Biden administration, AbiNader said, has been very supportive of Lebanon, but America needs to do more.
“Let’s be frank. The United States has not really been very smart about the Middle East in terms of their politics. They have been trying to pivot out of the region since Obama,” AbiNader said.
“The relationships with the Lebanese and other groups have been hard won. And they have usually seen Lebanon through an Iranian lens or an Israeli lens and not Lebanon for itself. And that’s really what we have been fighting to get over the past 20 years is a Lebanese policy that is built on US-Lebanon interests and not a Lebanon being seen as something affected by the Iran negotiations or by Israel’s security.”
The challenge, he said, remains in Congress, where some members continue to believe that Lebanon is “run by Hezbollah and Iran.”
“We had to show them time and time again that Lebanon has been a good partner with the United States,” AbiNader said.
“The Congress has increased the amount of humanitarian assistance to Lebanon. It has increased the amount of assistance to the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces),” AbiNader said.
“It has made very strong indications of what the US would like Lebanon to do, for example, vis a vis the elections in terms of being free, fair and on time, which helped a lot. It has helped Lebanon with the World Bank, in terms of Lebanon receiving certain loans, for example, to subsidize wheat. So, I think the United States is doing a lot. But can it do more? We always think it should.”
AbiNader acknowledged that a stronger case must be made to the Lebanese people explaining what the US is doing for Lebanon, given the pressures of the Russian war in Ukraine, economic issues with China, and immigration challenges on America’s southern border.
AbiNader said that Lebanon is grateful that US President Joseph Biden has restored the financial support that was stripped by his predecessor, Donald Trump.
*The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and sponsored by Arab News live every Wednesday at 5 p.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 and in Washington D.C. on WDMV AM 700. It is rebroadcast on Thursdays at 7 a.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 radio and in Chicago at 12 noon on WNWI AM 1080.

Election losses unlikely to loosen Hezbollah’s grip on power
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/May 19/2022
The results of the Lebanese parliamentary election were received with a collective sigh of relief by the Lebanese —those who voted and those who did not — as well as regionally and internationally as a sign that Lebanon, though still in intensive care, has the tools to resuscitate itself if all MPs find the political will to work toward solving the country’s multiple crises.
A closer look, however, shows that such political will has long eluded Lebanon and the talk that Hezbollah has been weakened will not affect the status quo. Lebanon’s domestic priorities have rarely featured in the calculations of Hezbollah, whose record over the past few decades shows how uninterested it has been in saving the country from its fate.
Holding a general election in a bankrupt country is an achievement in itself. And holding it in a country where most of the people have demonstrated against the corrupt political class that has ruled since the end of its civil war is a promising act. Holding such elections despite an electoral law that was tailored to preserve a majority for the Iran-backed and armed Hezbollah group and its allies led to abstention by many.
Listening to the debates in the run up to the elections — especially those involving the reform and change candidates, who have been demanding the departure of the country’s corrupt, traditional leadership — made one feel as if these people had been living in a full-fledged democracy, in which change is not resisted by violence in the street, where parliament is not shut down to please one force or another and where the president’s seat could remain empty indefinitely unless a specific candidate preferred by the armed group is elected.
Hezbollah, a militia that became a political and military player domestically and regionally and a key mover and shaker in Lebanon’s precarious representative system, and its main Shiite ally the Amal Movement have retained their seats. But their Christian ally, President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, has suffered considerable losses, bringing into question the size of the bloc allied with Iran and Syria in the next parliament.
Despite that, it is unlikely that compromise will be the name of the game in the country’s efforts to form a government — an affair that is usually mired in months of haggling and political paralysis. In the meantime, the country is in desperate need of a financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund and others if it is to have a chance of remaining a non-failed state.
It is doubtful that compromise will be the name of the game in Lebanon’s efforts to form a government
The Lebanese Forces, led by former warlord Samir Geagea, fared better, replacing Aoun’s party as the dominant Christian force in the next parliament. New opposition candidates also enjoyed some electoral successes, despite their failure to organize and rally their forces to present a cross-sectarian, cross-tribal and cross-religious option capable of capitalizing on the slogans they raised during the October 2019 street protests.
Turnout was 41 percent, 8 points less than that recorded at the 2018 elections. This turnout was even lower in Sunni Muslim areas after former Prime Minister Saad Hariri triggered a de facto boycott of the vote in his community by pulling his Future Movement out of the race. With that, he removed the Sunni block, which had often tilted toward a national agenda of reform and a Lebanon free of Syrian and Iranian influence, from the Lebanese political equation.
Regardless of the calculus attached to the election results, the Lebanese must breathe a sigh of relief that Hezbollah and its allies have failed to win anything close to two thirds of the parliamentary seats — a milestone that, if reached through whatever future alliances are agreed, might allow them to amend the constitution and change the country for good.
But this does not mean that Hezbollah will be any less dominant and assertive in the weeks and months ahead. The group’s leadership often reminds the Lebanese that their fight is an existential one. It is an endless fight to regain the so-called occupied Lebanese land from Israel — and that of the Palestinians of course — and, more recently, to prevent an alleged large-scale offshore oil and gas robbery by “Western powers,” let alone the party’s continued presence in Syria, Yemen and Iraq under the premise of fighting within Iran’s supreme leader’s army.
Domestic economic reform and rebirth, the empowerment of the Lebanese state to fight corruption, guaranteeing the independence of the judiciary, and rebuilding and reinventing a role for Lebanon are the least of the Hezbollah bloc’s concerns. It is also not concerned by the triviality of repairing the damaged Lebanese-Arab relations, fending for Lebanon as a result of the potential fallout from further Arab-Iranian discord or the success or failure of Western efforts to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal.
These elections were held two years after Lebanon defaulted on its international debt, while its currency has lost more than 95 percent of its value, leaving the majority of its people living below the poverty line. The formation of a new government will be the first test of the new parliament and its legitimacy will be tested further when it is time to elect a new president of the republic in the autumn.
Against this backdrop, the hoped-for presence of several new independent or reform-minded members of parliament must be applauded, as this could disrupt the horse trading between political barons that has characterized Lebanese politics for decades. However, their presence is unlikely to effect any serious change to the business-as-usual approach of the bloc that has had the upper hand in Lebanon for the past three decades, eroding the sovereignty of the state and its institutions or simply manipulating them to serve its agenda.
• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.

Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene
Paul Salem/MEI@75/May 19/2022
Election results show that voters dealt a serious blow to Hezbollah’s political allies, favored their opponents, and brought a higher-than-expected number of new civil society candidates to parliament.
Despite a low voter turnout of 41%, significantly lower than the last elections in 2018, and despite great division among civil society ranks that failed to put together unified “revolutionary” movement or national lists, new candidates from these disparate lists made breakthroughs over established parties and politicians in 14 seats. Although this is still a modest fraction of the 128 seats in parliament, it shows that change is possible, that a significant number of voters will vote for change if given a viable alternative, and that the established parties and politicians are vulnerable.
In a more traditional calculus, the elections weakened the pro-Hezbollah alliance in favor of its opponents. Hezbollah and its allies ended up with a minority of only 60 seats, while their opponents of various stripes occupy a majority of 68 seats. In the Christian community, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law Gibran Bassil, which is allied with Hezbollah, saw their parliamentary bloc shrink to 17, and now take second place to the staunchly anti-Hezbollah Lebanese Forces party, which secured a bloc of 19. The pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad leader in North Lebanon, Suleiman Frangieh, also saw his influence shrink, failing to secure a majority even in his own hometown of Zgharta. Both Bassil and Frangieh can no longer claim to represent a dominant political trend in the Christian community, nor do they have a strong case to be considered for the presidency.
In the Druze community, long-time pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad politicians lost to reformist civil society candidates; several pro-Hezbollah Sunni and Christian candidates in the Hezbollah strongholds of south Lebanon also lost. In the Sunni community, the previously dominant leader Saad Hariri sat these elections out, and the Sunni vote was distributed among a wide array of anti-Hezbollah or reformist lists. Sunni allies of Hezbollah and Assad did very poorly.
Hezbollah and Amal maintained their sweep of the 27 Shiite seats in parliament. But Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah had made it clear in recent speeches that Hezbollah’s goal in these elections was to make sure its allies in other communities did well. In this, it has failed. The decline of the FPM to minority status means that Hezbollah has lost a strong Christian cover — especially after President Aoun’s term ends at the end of October. It has lost key allies in the Sunni and Druze communities, and has lost the majority it previously could count on in parliament. Of course it remains the dominant party of the Shiite community and an extremely powerful armed group that does not hesitate to use force inside, and outside, the country to pursue its or Iran’s goals.
It is fair to say that the results of these elections came as a surprise even to civil society and reform groups, which had begun to lose hope in the possibility of change. It shows how much elections still matter, and how much political mobilization and voting can bring about change, even in a dysfunctional and militia-dominated country like Lebanon.
In the weeks ahead the parliament has first to elect a speaker. Amal leader Nabih Berri has been speaker for the past 30 years, and might be so again, but the election results make his road to victory more challenging. Next, the president must engage in parliamentary consultations to designate someone to form the next government. The current Prime Minister Najib Mikati fared poorly in these elections, but it’s not yet clear who might emerge as an alternative. The naming of a prime minister and the process to form a government might not even come to fruition before the next big political milestone, which is the presidential election that should take place before the end of October. Hezbollah’s original plan, to try to get one of its close allies, Bassil or Frangieh, into that position, is no longer viable. As electing a president requires a two-thirds quorum in parliament — a ratio that no political coalition has — the country might be bound for a presidential vacuum of extended duration. Indeed, the country is in desperate need of a new government that can work with the new parliament to implement the urgently needed economic reforms to secure an IMF rescue package and begin reversing the socio-economic collapse. Although these elections have brought significant and positive political change, they leave the political road ahead still very contested and unlikely to produce sufficient political consensus to undertake the necessary major reforms. But the elections do give hope that change is indeed possible in the country, and that efforts to bring about more lasting and widespread change deserve to be redoubled.
*Paul Salem, Fadi Nicholas Nassar, Carmen Geha, Bilal Y. Saab, Brian Katulis, Various Authors
Lebanese elections bring change

What's after Hezbollah's failure
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/May 19/2022
From now on, the pro-Iranian party is likely to use its monopoly on Shia representation to create a political vacuum in Lebanon.
If the results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections prove anything, it is that the overwhelming majority of the Lebanese people reject the weapons of “Hezbollah” and the path that made Michel Aoun and his son-in-law, Gibran Bassil, the de facto presidents of the republic.
Since the election of Hezbollah's nominee as president, Lebanon has had been under a dual presidency instead of having a single head of state who plays his role in bringing the Lebanese together instead of taking them to "hell," as Michel Aoun himself put it.
The elections revealed that the Lebanese are still pushing back against the so-called “resistance” path and that they possess a much greater political awareness than that with which they are usually credited.
It is not easy to achieve such a victory over "Hezbollah" in light of an electoral law that was tailored according to the wishes of the party and its allies … or, rather, its proxies.
On the sidelines of the Lebanese elections, there are observations that may be useful to make.
The top of these is that the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, has suffered a major blow. Bassil had hoped to repeat the achievement of the 2018 elections and find himself leading the largest parliamentary bloc in Lebanon.
He hoped that this would make him the natural candidate for the presidency, under the pretext that the ballot box had shown him to be the strongest of the Christian figures.
Bassil's dreams and ambitions came crashing down. Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, could not help him increase the size of his parliamentary bloc, nor achieve some parity between him and Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces party, who can be considered the major victor in the elections. Geagea became the symbol of the true Lebanese resistance to Iranian occupation. The "Lebanese Forces" will represent a bloc of 22 or 23 deputies out of 128, but the big question is what can a bloc of this size really do considering the domination of "Hezbollah" over Lebanese state institutions?
The Lebanese rewarded the “Lebanese Forces” for their stance against Hezbollah’s weapons.
Here it was the events of Ain al-Rummaneh, near Beirut, in October last year, that made a difference in the perception of Samir Geagea and the “Lebanese Forces” at the Lebanese and Arab levels, as they showed clearly that there are those who are ready to stand up to “Hezbollah.”
Undoubtedly, the failure of such people as Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab is a severe blow to Hezbollah. It had aimed to infiltrate other sects through the electoral law, after having made sure that the majority of Shia was under its thumb. In everything the party did, it miscalculated, especially in its attempt to exploit the state of fragmentation within the Sunni community. The Sunnis managed to catch their breath and prove their presence by turning out for the polls in all of Lebanon and in Beirut in particular.
There is a broad Lebanese front which constitutes the Club to Reclaim Lebanon from Iranian Occupation, even if such a front still needs better coordination among its components.
Samir Geagea is not the only Christian who stood up to Hezbollah and all it represents. There was also the "Lebanese Kataeb" (Phalange party) and its head, Sami Gemayel, which has established its presence on the ground. There are also independents from the family of Dr Faris Saeed, who represents a special case at the national level. It is unfortunate that there are still Christians in Lebanon voting for the candidates of the "Aounist movement", which covered up for the collapse of the banking system, the weapons of "Hezbollah", the Arab isolation of Lebanon and the Beirut port blast.
In the final analysis, the parliamentary election was a defeat for Hezbollah, despite its recourse to all types of repressive methods to monopolise Shia representation in the country. How will it react to defeat? The answer is that it will probably seek to create a vacuum at all levels under the slogan of “weapons shield corruption.”From now on, Hezbollah is likely to use its monopoly of Shia representation to create a political vacuum. It will accordingly be difficult to form a new government, knowing that it is likely that Najib Mikati will be re-assigned to form the cabinet. There is no Sunni figure other than Mikati who can enjoy consensus these days when it comes to putting together an administration. The elections will remain a win for his government, despite all the flaws already depicted by the media.
Hezbollah will let the country go from bad to worse. It would be akin to the approach which Iran adopted in Iraq when it disrupted political life there just because Tehran and the parties and militias affiliated with it did not like the outcome of the October parliamentary elections.
In pushing the country to further collapse, Hezbollah can count on the attitude of the President Aoun, who spoke a few days ago, about a "road map" which he had drawn up for his successor in Baabda Palace.
But does Michel Aoun have a road map other than the one that leads to “hell”?

‘Elections did not undermine Hezbollah but gives Lebanon chance to reorganize’ says spokesman for the American Task Force on Lebanon
Ray Hanania/Arab News/May 19/2022
CHICAGO: The result of Lebanon’s elections should not lead people to believe that Hezbollah has been undermined but should be seen as an opportunity to restructure the country’s political dynamics, a spokesman for the American Task Force on Lebanon said on Wednesday.
Jean AbiNader, ATFL vice president for policy, explained that Hezbollah coalition partners such as the conservative Christian Free Patriotic Movement, headed by President Aoun’s son-in-law Gibran Bassile, lost seats, weakening the Hezbollah-led group.
AbiNader said that America needs to “de-couple” US policies toward Lebanon from US policies toward Iran. He said that Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US, must decide, too, if it is Lebanese or an arm of Iranian regional influence. But Hezbollah did not lose influence in the election, he said, only its coalition partnership.
“That’s really critical for people to understand. Hezbollah hasn’t lost. Its coalition lost. One is the Free Patriotic Movement, which is President Michel Aoun’s party now run by Gebran Bassile,” AbiNader said during an interview on The Ray Hanania Radio show broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and sponsored by Arab News.
“They lost seats. The biggest losers, of course, are the Sunnis because they didn’t contest the election. A number of Sunni candidates won. That’s great. Some pro-Syrian candidates lost. Some outliers who are not members of any coalition also lost. What you have here is Amal, Hezbollah, the kernel of their 27 seats is intact. They will look to Marada and other organizations to join with them in a coalition. But regardless of what happens, if — and this is a big if — if Lebanese forces can pull together with the Druze, and can pick up with the independents and the anti-traditional leaders, they will have a slim majority in parliament.”
He said that the political balance will “shift all the time,” but conceded, “it is definitely a time of uncertainty.”
AbiNader said that the election has created an opportunity for the Lebanese people to form a new coalition that will focus on confronting the corruption that has blocked a full investigation of the Aug. 4, 2020 explosion that killed more than 218 people, injured 7,000 and made more than 300,000 people homeless.
“The explosion “has never really been investigated,” AbiNader said. Questions still remain about how much of the ammonium nitrate that exploded still remains and where it is. He said that the explosion was estimated to reflect the power of about 500 tons of ammonium nitrate. But, he said, there was more than 2,700 tons at the port and the whereabouts of the 2,200 tons remains a dangerous mystery.
“If we get a new government in Lebanon, the investigation will go forward,” AbiNader predicted, noting that two of the government ministers who have called for an investigation were re-elected.
“There is no full investigation in Lebanon of that bombing, so far,” AbiNader said.
He said that the Lebanese continue to live under the fear that more violence could take place.
“There is that fear and the fear is how do we set up a government that can function that isn’t a provocation to Hezbollah. And that is a real challenge because the Lebanese forces, the largest Christian party, that will form an anti-Hezbollah coalition has to do it more than on anti-grounds,” AbiNader said.
“They have to be pro-something. That’s my concern — that Lebanese forces will see their votes as a mandate to be aggressive and antagonistic to Hezbollah. That shouldn’t be the target. The target should be an independent judiciary, complete the investigations, fix the economy, put money back in people’s pockets, and diminish corruption. That’s what the challenges should be because that is what people are tired of. Hezbollah will gradually lose its attraction as it loses its raison d’etre, which is to protect Lebanon against Israel.”
AbiNader argued that Hezbollah, which is a political force and a powerful militia, must decide whether it is Lebanese or is a force for Iran.
America, he added, must see past Hezbollah in helping Lebanon to recover and rebuild. The Biden administration, AbiNader said, has been very supportive of Lebanon, but America needs to do more.
“Let’s be frank. The United States has not really been very smart about the Middle East in terms of their politics. They have been trying to pivot out of the region since Obama,” AbiNader said.
“The relationships with the Lebanese and other groups have been hard won. And they have usually seen Lebanon through an Iranian lens or an Israeli lens and not Lebanon for itself. And that’s really what we have been fighting to get over the past 20 years is a Lebanese policy that is built on US-Lebanon interests and not a Lebanon being seen as something affected by the Iran negotiations or by Israel’s security.”
The challenge, he said, remains in Congress, where some members continue to believe that Lebanon is “run by Hezbollah and Iran.”
“We had to show them time and time again that Lebanon has been a good partner with the United States,” AbiNader said.
“The Congress has increased the amount of humanitarian assistance to Lebanon. It has increased the amount of assistance to the LAF (Lebanese Armed Forces),” AbiNader said.
“It has made very strong indications of what the US would like Lebanon to do, for example, vis a vis the elections in terms of being free, fair and on time, which helped a lot. It has helped Lebanon with the World Bank, in terms of Lebanon receiving certain loans, for example, to subsidize wheat. So, I think the United States is doing a lot. But can it do more? We always think it should.”
AbiNader acknowledged that a stronger case must be made to the Lebanese people explaining what the US is doing for Lebanon, given the pressures of the Russian war in Ukraine, economic issues with China, and immigration challenges on America’s southern border.
AbiNader said that Lebanon is grateful that US President Joseph Biden has restored the financial support that was stripped by his predecessor, Donald Trump.
*The Ray Hanania Radio Show is broadcast on the US Arab Radio Network and sponsored by Arab News live every Wednesday at 5 p.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 and in Washington D.C. on WDMV AM 700. It is rebroadcast on Thursdays at 7 a.m. EST in Detroit on WNZK AM 690 radio and in Chicago at 12 noon on WNWI AM 1080.
* For the podcast and more information on the radio show visit: www.arabnews.com/rayradioshow

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 19-20/2022
Video interview with Jordan's king: Iran filling vacuum left by Russians in Syria, says
Tzvi Joffer/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1045814433003067
Jordan's ruler complained about attacks on the country's borders, saying "we know who's behind that."
Jordan's King Abdullah II stated that Iran and its proxies were filling a vacuum left by Russia in southern Syria, warning that this could lead to issues along Jordan's borders, during an interview on Wednesday at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
When asked about Iran, the king stated that "we want everybody to be part of a new Middle East and to move forward, but we do have security challenges. We're seeing border attacks on a regular basis and we know who's behind that."
Abdullah II stressed that Russia's presence in southern Syria was a "source of calm" and warned that Iran and its proxies were filling the vacuum left by Russia as it focuses on Ukraine. "Unfortunately we're looking at maybe an escalation of problems on our borders."
Recent reports indicated that Russia was withdrawing its forces in Syria in order to reinforce its forces in Ukraine, but these reports have not been officially confirmed.Do the politics, the negotiations that are going on between Saudia Arabia, the Gulf countries, the United States, does that move Iran into a more positive light? I hope so. I'm not seeing it on the ground at the moment," added the Jordanian king.
'Last month was difficult'
Abdullah II also addressed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and tensions in Jerusalem in the past month, stressing that Arab leaders in the region realize that "the last month was a difficult one.""We had Ramadan, Passover and Easter holidays - but can we afford to go through this again next year?" questioned the king. "So I hope that the dust will settle in the next couple of weeks and then [the question is] how do we get Israelis and Palestinians to the table? Not because of politics but again because of dire socio-economic challenges coming out of COVID and compounded now with Ukraine and Russia." "What I see in the past several months is Arab leaders coming together and saying how can we chart a new vision for our region and it's not just the Arab peninsula," added Abdullah II. "How do we solve the Israeli-Palestinian issue because no matter what relations Arab countries have with Israel, if we don't solve the Palestinian issue it's really two steps forward and two steps back."The king stressed that Jordan still believes in a two-state solution, adding that it's "the only solution that allows Israel's integration into the Middle East is when we solve the issues for the Palestinians."Abdullah II gave the interview during an official visit to the United States, during which he also met with US President Joe Biden

Israel arrests Al Jazeera reporter pallbearer
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Israel has arrested one of the pallbearers of slain Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh, police said Thursday, but rejected his lawyer's claim that the detention was linked to his role at the funeral. In a raid that has sparked international outrage, baton-wielding Israeli police beat several pallbearers as they carried the journalist's coffin out of a hospital in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.  Abu Akleh was shot dead during an Israeli army raid in the West Bank last week. Palestinians and the TV network said Israeli troops killed her, while Israel said she may have been killed by Palestinian gunfire or a stray shot from an Israeli sniper. A lawyer for pallbearer Amro Abu Khudeir told AFP that his client had been arrested and questioned over his role at the funeral. According to the lawyer, Khaldoun Najm, Israel also claimed to have "a secret file on (Khudeir's) membership of a terrorist organisation". "I think they will arrest more young men who participated in the funeral," Najm said. "For them, the subject of the funeral and the coffin was scandalous." Police dismissed any link between the funeral and Khudeir's arrest. "We are witnessing an attempt to produce a conspiracy that is fundamentally incorrect," a statement said. "The suspect was arrested as part of an ongoing investigation which contrary to allegations, had nothing to do with his participation in the funeral procession." Police justifications for the raid at St. Joseph's hospital have varied. They have cited the need to stamp out "nationalistic" chants and also said that "rioters" among the mourners hurled projectiles at officers. Israeli forces frequently crack down on displays of Palestinian identity, including the national flag, one of which was draped over Abu Akleh's coffin. Police have vowed to investigate the controversial incident.

UN envoy: US sanctions on Iran worsen humanitarian situation
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Sweeping U.S. sanctions imposed on Iran have badly impacted the country's economy and worsened the humanitarian situation in the Persian Gulf nation, a United Nations special envoy said Wednesday. According to Alena Douhan, the U.N. special rapporteur on unilateral coercive measures, the sanctions have affected Iran's main export groups, banks and also several companies and nationals, including some pharmaceuticals and food production. This has led to inflation and growing poverty, and depleted state resources for dealing with the basic needs of people with low income and other vulnerable groups, Douhan told reporters during a press conference in Tehran. She singled out those suffering from "severe diseases, disabled people, Afghan refugees, women-led households and children" as being badly affected by the measures. Douhan, a Belarusian who was appointed in 2020 and reports to the U.N. Human Rights Council, also said that the "sanctions have been substantially exacerbating the humanitarian situation in Iran." She urged countries that imposed unilateral sanctions against Iran, especially the United States, to remove them. Former President Donald Trump pulled America out of the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, re-imposed sanctions and also introduced new, tougher measures against Tehran in 2018. The nuclear deal had granted Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for strict curbs on its nuclear program. Talks in Vienna to revive that deal — something hat the Biden administration is trying to do — have stalled over an Iranian demand that Washington lift a terrorist designation on the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The negotiations nearly reached completion in March before Moscow demanded that its trade with Iran be exempted from Western sanctions over Ukraine, throwing the process into disarray. Negotiators have yet to reconvene in the Austrian capital of Vienna, and it's unclear exactly what hurdles lie ahead. Despite the deadlock, officials say the urgency to close the deal has grown as Iran's nuclear program has rapidly advanced. However, over the past weeks, anger over Iran's worsening economic conditions has mounted amid price hikes of dinner table staples as a result of a new government policy to amend the food subsidy system. Scattered protests have erupted over the price changes in several provinces, with Iranian state-run media acknowledging nearly two dozen arrests. Bus drivers in Tehran seeking a 10% wage increase walked off the job on Monday, paralyzing parts of the city, and teachers have also gone on strike over the past months in cities and towns across Iran. They have walked out of their classes to press for better pay and working conditions.

Israeli military ID's gun that may have killed journalist Abu Akleh
Associated Press/May 19/2022
The Israeli military has identified a soldier's rifle that may have killed Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, but said it cannot be certain unless the Palestinians turn over the bullet for analysis, a military official said Thursday. The announcement marked a small sign of progress in the investigation into the killing of Abu Akleh, who was fatally shot on May 11 while covering an Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank. Palestinian officials, along with fellow journalists who were with Abu Akleh, have said Israeli troops stationed nearby killed her. The Israeli army says she was shot during a battle between troops and Palestinian gunmen, and it cannot be determined who fired the fatal bullet without a proper analysis. Israel has called for a joint investigation with the Palestinians. But the Palestinians, who have the bullet, have refused, saying they don't trust Israel. They say they are conducting their own investigation and they are ready to cooperate with any country except for Israel. The military official stressed that while the source of the shot is still unclear, "we have narrowed down the IDF weapon that might be involved in the fire exchange near Shireen."He renewed the call for the Palestinians to release the bullet. If they do so, he said, Israel will "hopefully be able to compare the bullet to that barrel and check if there is a match." He spoke on condition of anonymity under military briefing guidelines. The military last week released the results of a preliminary investigation that offered two possible causes of death. It said that in one scenario, she may have been hit by Palestinian gunfire during a fierce shootout with Israeli troops. In the second scenario, it said she might have been hit by an Israeli soldier who shot through a "designated firing hole" in a military vehicle at a Palestinian gunman who was shooting at the vehicle. It said it could not determine the source of fire without analyzing the bullet. The Palestinians have been conducting their own investigation. Last Friday, the Palestinian public prosecutor said preliminary findings show Abu Akleh was killed by deliberate fire from Israeli troops. The prosecutor said the investigation would continue. Bellingcat, an independent Dutch-based open-source research firm, has conducted its own analysis of material gathered largely from videos on social media. It said its initial findings lent support to Palestinian witnesses who say she was killed by Israeli fire. Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American and 25-year veteran of the satellite channel, was killed in the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank. She was a household name across the Arab world, known for documenting the hardship of Palestinian life under Israeli rule, now in its sixth decade. The shooting drew condemnations and statements of concern from around the world. Israel also has been widely criticized for the behavior of police, who pushed and beat mourners at her funeral last Friday, causing the pallbearers to nearly drop her coffin.

Shaky Israeli coalition is jolted as another lawmaker quits

Associated Press/May 19/2022
Another member of Israel's parliament said Thursday she was quitting the ruling coalition, leaving embattled Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in control of a crumbling minority government. Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi's announcement further whittles away Bennett's hold on Israel's 120-seat parliament, reducing the coalition to 59 seats. Two other legislators from his own party have already bolted. Rinawie Zoabi's departure further raises the possibility of new parliamentary elections, less than a year after the government took office. While Bennett's government remains in power, it is now even more hamstrung in parliament and will likely struggle to function. In a letter to Bennett, Rinawie Zoabi, who hails from the dovish Meretz party, said she was leaving the coalition because she said it too often adopted nationalist positions on issues of importance to her constituents, Palestinian citizens of Israel. She cited Israel's conduct at Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa Mosque, which in recent weeks has been the site of clashes between police and protesters, as well as continued settlement building and the beating by police of pallbearers at the funeral of a well-known Al Jazeera journalist shot while covering confrontations between Israeli forces and Palestinians. "Enough. I cannot continue to support a coalition that in such a shameful way hounds the society from which I came," she wrote. Bennett, who leads a small, hard-line nationalist party, heads an unwieldy coalition of eight ideologically diverse factions — from dovish ones that support Palestinian statehood to nationalist parties and even, for the first time in Israeli history, an Islamist Arab party. They came together last June with little in common other than their drive to oust former leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who now heads the opposition. As part of their union, the parties agreed to set aside divisive issues, like Palestinian statehood, and focus instead on topics such as the coronavirus pandemic and the economy. Despite the differences among the coalition, it has managed to pass a budget, navigate the pandemic and strengthen relations with both the Biden administration and Israel's Arab allies. But a wave of Israeli-Palestinian tensions, set off by several deadly Palestinian attacks against Israel and Israeli arrest raids in the occupied West Bank, and fueled by repeated clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian protesters at Al-Aqsa, has shaken the coalition's stability. Mansour Abbas, the head of the Islamist party, briefly suspended his faction's membership in the coalition over the events, before rejoining shortly after. Israel on Wednesday said it would allow a Jewish ultranationalist flag parade to snake through the heart of the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem's Old City, what is likely to further escalate tensions. Bennett's coalition recently lost its own whip, Idit Silman, who said her nationalist values were being challenged under the diverse grouping. Bennett took steps following Silman's departure to shore up the coalition and punish defectors, but another deserter raises questions about the union's stability and how much longer it can hang on before crumbling entirely. To topple the government, opposition lawmakers would need to secure 61 votes in favor of dissolving parliament or forming an alternate governing coalition. Some opposition members appear to oppose new elections, and it seems unlikely for the time being that Netanyahu has enough support to bring the government down.

Hamas students celebrate West Bank university poll win
Agence France Presse/May 19/2022
Hamas supporters celebrated Thursday a landslide student election win at a top West Bank university, results experts said further points to the Islamists' growing support in the occupied Palestinian territory. Hamas's Al Wafaa’ Islamic bloc won 28 of the 51 seats on the student council at Birzeit University, marking the first time Islamist-aligned candidates have gained control of the body.The bloc aligned with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas's secular Fatah movement won just 18 seats.The general Palestinian population has not been to the polls since 2006. Abbas scrapped elections scheduled for last year citing Israel's refusal to allow voting in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim as their capital. But Palestinian analysts said Abbas baulked out of fear that Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, would also trounce Fatah across the West Bank. Birzeit's vice president, Ghassan al-Khatib, said some saw the campus vote as "a test for measuring public opinion", with no general elections on the horizon. Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the Birzeit polls were perceived as a type of bellwether because the make-up of the student body was "seen as more representative of Palestinian society". "The fact that you have a democratic mechanism and the voter pool is seen to be representative of Palestinian dynamics -- that's why it matters," he told AFP. Fatah used to dominate student councils in the West Bank. Hamas praised the results as "a rejection of the normalization" and "security coordination," in a reference to the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority's ties with Israel. Dr Fathi Hammad, a member of the group's political bureau, said "the student movement has proven that (the youth) is the fuel to the revolution."

A year after disaster, thousands flock to Israeli holy site
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Thousands of worshippers have flocked to a Jewish holy site in northern Israel to light bonfires, pray and dance Wednesday under heavy police presence, a year after a stampede there left 45 people dead. This year's Lag BaOmer holiday festivities at Mount Meron appeared orderly, but were overshadowed by last year's deaths, the largest civilian disaster in the country's history. A prominent rabbi lit 45 candles in memory of those who perished. Highways leading to the mountain were gridlocked hours ahead of the celebrations. An independent commission of inquiry launched after the disaster last year looked into major safety lapses and overcrowding at the mountaintop site and recommended limiting attendance and revamping safety protocols and infrastructure. Attendance this year was limited to 16,000 people who had to secure their tickets in advance. Police said around 8,000 police officers would be stationed around the site to maintain order.The site is believed to be the burial place of a prominent second century rabbi, and has drawn Jewish pilgrims and worshipers for centuries. The springtime festival was marked by traditional bonfires, singing and dancing. On Tuesday, police said they stopped a minibus near Mount Meron carrying members of a radical ultra-Orthodox sect in possession of box cutters, wire cutters, paint bombs and other tools that officers suspected were meant to vandalize infrastructure at the site. At least three people were arrested. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said ahead of the holiday's commencement at sundown Wednesday that "the government of Israel has made a large investment in order to allow wide and safe participation.""I ask the public to act according to the published guidelines and to arrive with a ticket in order that we can hold the festival safely," he said.

Russian soldier on trial asks victim's widow to forgive him
Associated Press/May 19/2022
A Russian soldier facing the first war crimes trial since the start of the war in Ukraine testified Thursday that he shot a civilian on orders from two officers and pleaded for his victim's widow to forgive him. Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin told the court that the officer insisted that the Ukrainian man, who was speaking on his cellphone, could pinpoint their location to the Ukrainian forces. The 21-year-old sergeant could get life in prison if convicted of shooting the Ukrainian man in the head through an open car window in a village in the northeastern Sumy region on Feb. 28, four days into the Russian invasion. Looking subdued, Shishimarin said he at first disobeyed his immediate commanding officer's order to shoot the unarmed civilian but had no other choice but to follow the order when it was repeated forcefully by another officer. Shishimarin pleaded guilty to the charges during Wednesday's hearing. On Thursday, he asked the victim's widow, who also appeared in the trial, to forgive him for what he did. "I realize that you can't forgive me, but I'm pleading you for forgiveness," Shishimarin said. The woman, Kateryna Shelipova, said her 62-year-old husband, Oleksandr Shelipov, got out to check what was going on when gunshots rang just outside their home. When the shooting ceased shortly after, she walked out and found her husband shot dead just outside their home. "He was all to me. He was my defender," she said. Shelipova told the court that Shishimarin deserves a life sentence for killing her husband but added that she wouldn't mind if he's exchanged as part of a possible prisoner swap with Russia for the surrendered Ukrainian defenders of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. The prosecutor asked for a life sentence for Shishimarin and the trial adjourned until Friday. Shishimarin, a captured member of a Russian tank unit, is being prosecuted under a section of the Ukrainian criminal code that addresses the laws and customs of war. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova previously said her office was readying war crimes cases against 41 Russian soldiers for offenses that included bombing civilian infrastructure, killing civilians, rape and looting. It was not immediately clear how many of the suspects are in Ukrainian hands and how many would be tried in absentia.As the inaugural war-crimes case in Ukraine, Shishimarin's prosecution was being watched closely. Investigators have been collecting evidence of possible war crimes to bring before the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that could last for years
AFP/May 19, 2022
UNITED NATIONS: The UN warned Wednesday that a growing global food crisis could last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12 billion in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects.”
Food insecurity is soaring due to warming temperatures, the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to critical shortages of grains and fertilizer.
At a major United Nations meeting in New York on global food security, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the war “threatens to tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity.”
He said what could follow would be “malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years,” as he and others urged Russia to release Ukrainian grain exports.
Russia and Ukraine alone produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and international economic sanctions on Russia have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat and other commodities from both countries, pushing up prices for food and fuel, especially in developing nations.
Before the invasion in February, Ukraine was seen as the world’s bread basket, exporting 4.5 million tons of agricultural produce per month through its ports — 12 percent of the planet’s wheat, 15 percent of its corn and half of its sunflower oil.
But with the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and others cut off from the world by Russian warships, the supply can only travel on congested land routes that are far less efficient.
“Let’s be clear: there is no effective solution to the food crisis without reintegrating Ukraine’s food production,” Guterres said.
“Russia must permit the safe and secure export of grain stored in Ukrainian ports.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who chaired the summit, and World Food Programme head David Beasley echoed the call.
“The world is on fire. We have solutions. We need to act and we need to act now,” implored Beasley. Russia is the world’s top supplier of key fertilizers and gas.
The fertilizers are not subject to the Western sanctions, but sales have been disrupted by measures taken against the Russian financial system while Moscow has also restricted exports, diplomats say.
Guterres also said Russian food and fertilizers “must have full and unrestricted access to world markets.”Food insecurity had begun to spike even before Moscow, which was not invited to Wednesday’s UN meet, invaded its neighbor on February 24.
In just two years, the number of severely food insecure people has doubled — from 135 million pre-pandemic to 276 million today, according to the UN.
More than half a million people are living in famine conditions, an increase of more than 500 percent since 2016, the world body says.
The World Bank’s announcement will bring total available funding for projects over the next 15 months to $30 billion. The new funding will help boost food and fertilizer production, facilitate greater trade and support vulnerable households and producers, the World Bank said.
The bank previously announced $18.7 billion in funding for projects linked to “food and nutrition security issues” for Africa and the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia.
Washington welcomed the decision, which is part of a joint action plan by multilateral lenders and regional development banks to address the food crisis.
The Treasury Department described Russia’s war as “the latest global shock that is exacerbating the sharp increase in both acute and chronic food insecurity in recent years” as it applauded institutions for working swiftly to address the issues.
India over the weekend banned wheat exports, which sent prices for the grain soaring.
The ban was announced Saturday in the face of falling production caused primarily by an extreme heatwave. “Countries should make concerted efforts to increase the supply of energy and fertilizer, help farmers increase plantings and crop yields, and remove policies that block exports and imports, divert food to biofuel, or encourage unnecessary storage,” said World Bank President David Malpass.

Mariupol battle draws to close; fighting in Donbas continues
Associated Press/May 19/2022
The battle that turned Mariupol into a worldwide symbol of defiance and suffering drew toward a close as Russia said nearly 1,000 last-ditch Ukrainian fighters who held out inside a pulverized steel plant had surrendered. Ukraine's military made no mention of Mariupol in its early morning briefing Thursday, saying only that Russian forces were still pressing their offensive on various sections of the front in the east, but were being successfully repelled. In the eastern Donbas region, which has been the center of recent fighting as Russian forces on the offensive have clashed with staunch Ukrainian resistance, four civilians were killed in the town of Sievierodonetsk in a Russian bombardment, Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai said. Three other civilians were wounded in the attack Wednesday, and the shelling continued into early Thursday, Haidai said. On the Russian side of the border, the governor of Kursk province said a truck driver was killed and several other civilians wounded by shelling from Ukraine. Separatist authorities in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine said two civilians were killed and five wounded also in Ukrainian shelling over the last 24 hours.
The Ukrainian fighters who emerged from the ruined Azovstal steelworks after being ordered by their military to abandon the last stronghold of resistance in the now-flattened port city face an uncertain fate. Some were taken by the Russians to a former penal colony in territory controlled by Moscow-backed separatists. While Ukraine said it hopes to get the soldiers back in a prisoner swap, Russia threatened to put some of them on trial for war crimes. In the first war-crimes trial held by Ukraine, a captured Russian soldier pleaded guilty on Wednesday of killing a civilian and faces a possible life in prison.
Amnesty International said the Red Cross should be given immediate access to the Mariupol fighters who surrendered. Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty's deputy director for the region, cited lawless executions allegedly carried out by Russian forces in Ukraine and said the Azovstal defenders "must not meet the same fate."It was unclear how many fighters remained inside the plant's labyrinth of tunnels and bunkers, where 2,000 were believed to be holed up at one point. A separatist leader in the region said no top commanders had emerged from the steelworks.
The plant was the only thing standing in the way of Russia declaring the full capture of Mariupol. Its fall would make Mariupol the biggest Ukrainian city to be taken by Moscow's forces, giving a boost to Putin in a war where many of his plans have gone awry.
Military analysts, though, said the city's capture at this point would hold more symbolic importance than anything else, since Mariupol is already effectively under Moscow's control and most of the Russian forces that were tied down by the drawn-out fighting have already left.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said 959 Ukrainian troops have abandoned the stronghold since they started coming out Monday.
Video showed the fighters carrying out their wounded on stretchers and undergoing pat-down searches before being taken away on buses escorted by military vehicles bearing the pro-Kremlin "Z" sign. The U.S. has gathered intelligence that shows some Russian officials have become concerned that Kremlin forces in Mariupol are carrying out abuses, including beating city officials, subjecting them to electric shocks and robbing homes, according to a U.S official familiar with the findings.
The Russian officials are concerned that the abuses will further inspire residents to resist the occupation and that the treatment runs counter to Russia's claims that its military has liberated Russian speakers, according to the official, who was not authorized to comment.
In the war-crimes case in Kyiv, Russian Sgt. Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old member of a tank unit, pleaded guilty to shooting an unarmed 62-year-old Ukrainian man in the head through a car window in the opening days of the war. Ukraine's top prosecutor has said some 40 more war-crimes cases are being readied.On the diplomatic front, Finland and Sweden could become members of NATO in a matter of months, though objections from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threaten to disrupt things. Turkey accuses the two countries of harboring Kurdish militants and others it considers a threat to its security.Ibrahim Kalin, a foreign policy adviser and spokesman for Erdogan, said there will be "no progress" on the membership applications unless Turkey's concerns are met. Each of NATO's 30 countries has an effective veto over new members.
Mariupol's defenders grimly clung to the steel mill for months and against the odds, preventing Russia from completing its occupation of the city and its port. Mariupol was a target of the Russians from the outset as Moscow sought to open a land corridor from its territory to the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized from Ukraine in 2014. The city — its prewar population of about 430,000 now reduced by about three-quarters — has largely been reduced to rubble by relentless bombardment, and Ukraine says over 20,000 civilians have been killed there. For Ukraine, the order to the fighters to surrender could leave President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government open to allegations it abandoned the troops he described as heroes. "Zelenskyy may face unpleasant questions," said Volodymyr Fesenko, who heads the independent Penta think tank in Kyiv. "There have been voices of discontent and accusations of betraying Ukrainian soldiers."A hoped-for prisoner swap could also fall through, he cautioned. Russia's main federal investigative body said it intends to interrogate the surrendering troops to "identify the nationalists" and determine whether they were involved in crimes against civilians.
Also, Russia's top prosecutor asked the country's Supreme Court to designate Ukraine's Azov Regiment — among the troops that made up the Azovstal garrison — as a terrorist organization. The regiment has roots in the far right. The Russian parliament was scheduled to consider a resolution to ban the exchange of any Azov Regiment fighters but didn't take up the issue Wednesday.

UN urges Ukraine grain release, warn of ‘mass hunger’ that could last for years
AFP/May 19, 2022
UNITED NATIONS: The UN warned Wednesday that a growing global food crisis could last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12 billion in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects.”Food insecurity is soaring due to warming temperatures, the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has led to critical shortages of grains and fertilizer. At a major United Nations meeting in New York on global food security, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the war “threatens to tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity.”He said what could follow would be “malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years,” as he and others urged Russia to release Ukrainian grain exports. Russia and Ukraine alone produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply. Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and international economic sanctions on Russia have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat and other commodities from both countries, pushing up prices for food and fuel, especially in developing nations. Before the invasion in February, Ukraine was seen as the world’s bread basket, exporting 4.5 million tons of agricultural produce per month through its ports — 12 percent of the planet’s wheat, 15 percent of its corn and half of its sunflower oil. But with the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and others cut off from the world by Russian warships, the supply can only travel on congested land routes that are far less efficient. “Let’s be clear: there is no effective solution to the food crisis without reintegrating Ukraine’s food production,” Guterres said. “Russia must permit the safe and secure export of grain stored in Ukrainian ports.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who chaired the summit, and World Food Programme head David Beasley echoed the call. “The world is on fire. We have solutions. We need to act and we need to act now,” implored Beasley. Russia is the world’s top supplier of key fertilizers and gas. The fertilizers are not subject to the Western sanctions, but sales have been disrupted by measures taken against the Russian financial system while Moscow has also restricted exports, diplomats say. Guterres also said Russian food and fertilizers “must have full and unrestricted access to world markets.”Food insecurity had begun to spike even before Moscow, which was not invited to Wednesday’s UN meet, invaded its neighbor on February 24.
In just two years, the number of severely food insecure people has doubled — from 135 million pre-pandemic to 276 million today, according to the UN. More than half a million people are living in famine conditions, an increase of more than 500 percent since 2016, the world body says.
The World Bank’s announcement will bring total available funding for projects over the next 15 months to $30 billion. The new funding will help boost food and fertilizer production, facilitate greater trade and support vulnerable households and producers, the World Bank said.
The bank previously announced $18.7 billion in funding for projects linked to “food and nutrition security issues” for Africa and the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and South Asia. Washington welcomed the decision, which is part of a joint action plan by multilateral lenders and regional development banks to address the food crisis. The Treasury Department described Russia’s war as “the latest global shock that is exacerbating the sharp increase in both acute and chronic food insecurity in recent years” as it applauded institutions for working swiftly to address the issues.
India over the weekend banned wheat exports, which sent prices for the grain soaring. The ban was announced Saturday in the face of falling production caused primarily by an extreme heatwave. “Countries should make concerted efforts to increase the supply of energy and fertilizer, help farmers increase plantings and crop yields, and remove policies that block exports and imports, divert food to biofuel, or encourage unnecessary storage,” said World Bank President David Malpass.

Biden meets Sweden, Finland leaders to talk NATO, Russia
Associated Press/May 19/2022
President Joe Biden on Thursday welcomed the leaders of Sweden and Finland to the White House, as he hailed the application of the once-neutral countries to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Biden greeted Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson of Sweden and President Sauli Niinistö of Finland at the White House with handshakes and laughter as they met for trilateral conversations on the NATO mutual defense pact as well as broader European security concerns. His administration has professed optimism for their applications to join the alliance, which would mark a significant embarrassment to Russia, despite continued opposition from Turkey. "I think we're going to be okay," Biden said Wednesday when asked whether he was confident he could secure their entry into NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that the alliance stop expanding toward Russia's borders, and several NATO allies, led by the United States and Britain, have signaled that they stand ready to provide security support to Finland and Sweden should the Kremlin try to provoke or destabilize them during the time it takes to become full members. While neutral throughout the Cold War, Finland and Sweden now cooperate closely with NATO. The countries will only benefit from NATO's Article 5 security guarantee — the part of the alliance's founding treaty that pledges that any attack on one member would be considered an attack on them all — once the membership ratification process is concluded. Public opinion in Finland and Sweden has shifted massively in favor of membership since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Because the pact must reach consensus on decisions, each of its NATO's 30 member countries has the power to veto a membership bid. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a Thursday video that he remains opposed to the two countries joining the alliance. "We have told our relevant friends we would say 'no' to Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO, and we will continue on our path like this," Erdogan told a group of Turkish youth in the video for Commemoration of Atatürk, Youth and Sports Day, a national holiday.Erdogan has said Turkey's objection stems from grievances with Sweden's — and to a lesser degree with Finland's — perceived support of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, and an armed group in Syria that Turkey sees as an extension of the PKK. The conflict with the PKK has killed tens of thousands of people since 1984. Turkey also accuses Sweden and Finland of harboring the followers of Fethullah Gulen, a U.S.-based Muslim cleric whom the Turkish government blames for 2016 military coup attempt.
The objections echo longtime Turkish complaints over even more substantial U.S. support for Kurds, as well as Gulen's presence in America. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Wednesday that Finland and Sweden were "working directly" with Turkey to address its concerns, and that the U.S. was also speaking with Turkish officials to "try to help facilitate" a resolution. "You've got a raucous collection of states that all have opinions, that all have perspectives, that all have interests," Sullivan said. "But they also know how to and when to pull together and how to settle any differences. And I expect these differences will be settled.' He added: "I expect that NATO will speak with one voice in support of Finland and Sweden at the end of the day."

Militant attacks hurt Pakistan relations with Afghan Taliban
Associated Press/May 19/2022
Faced with rising violence, Pakistan is taking a tougher line to pressure Afghanistan's Taliban rulers to crack down on militants hiding on their soil, but so far the Taliban remain reluctant to take action — trying instead to broker a peace.
Last month came a sharp deterioration in relations between the two neighbors when Pakistan carried out airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan. Witnesses said the strikes hit a refugee camp and another location, killing at least 40 civilians. UNICEF said 20 children were believed to be among the dead.
Pakistan never confirmed the April 17 strikes, but two days later its Foreign Ministry issued a sharp warning to the Taliban not to shelter militants.
The pressure has put the Taliban in a tight corner. The Taliban have long been close to several militant groups carrying out attacks in Pakistan, particularly the Pakistani Taliban, a separate organization known by the acronym TTP. The TTP and other groups have only got more active on Afghan soil since the Taliban takeover in August. But the Taliban are wary of cracking down on them, fearful of creating more enemies at a time when they already face an increasingly violent campaign by Afghanistan's Islamic State group affiliate, analysts say.A series of bombings across Afghanistan in recent weeks, mostly targeting minority Hazaras, has killed dozens. Most are blamed on the Islamic State affiliate, known by the acronym IS-K. The bloodshed has undermined the Taliban's claims to be able to provide the security expected of a governing force.
This week, the Taliban hosted talks between the TTP and a Pakistani government delegation as well as a group of Pakistani tribal leaders, apparently hoping for a compromise that can ease the pressure. On Wednesday, the TTP announced it was extending to May 30 an earlier cease-fire it had called.
The Taliban government's deputy spokesman Bilal Karimi said it "is trying its best for the continuation and success of the negotiations and meanwhile asks both sides to have flexibility."
But past cease-fires with the TTP have failed, and already the current one was shaken by violence last weekend. Pakistan's frustration appears to be growing as violence on its soil has increased.
The secessionist Baluchistan Liberation Army killed three Chinese nationals in late April. The TTP and the Afghan-based IS have targeted Pakistan's military with increasing regularity.
Militant attacks in Pakistan are up nearly 50% since the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, according to the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, an independent think tank based in Islamabad that tracks militant activities. The group documented 170 attacks between September and mid-May that killed 170 police, military and paramilitary personnel and more than 110 civilians.The United Nations estimates that as many as 10,000 TTP militants are hiding in Afghanistan. So far, Afghanistan's rulers have done little to dismantle militant redoubts on their territory.

Biden has an eye on China as he heads to South Korea, Japan
Associated Press/May 19/2022
President Joe Biden departs on a six-day trip to South Korea and Japan aiming to build rapport with the two nations' leaders while also sending an unmistakable message to China: Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine should give Beijing pause about its own saber-rattling in the Pacific.
Biden departs Thursday and is set to meet newly elected South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Their talks will touch on trade, increasing resilience in the global supply chain, growing concerns about North Korea's nuclear program and the explosive spread of COVID-19 in that country.While in Japan, Biden will also meet with fellow leaders of the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance known as the Quad, a group that includes Australia, India and Japan.
The U.S. under Biden has forged a united front with democratic allies that has combined their economic heft to make Russia pay a price for its invasion of Ukraine. That alliance includes South Korea and Japan. But even as Biden is to be feted by Yoon at a state dinner and hold intimate conversations with Kishida, the U.S. president knows those relationships need to be deepened if they're to serve as a counterweight to China's ambitions. "We think this trip is going to put on full display President Biden's Indo-Pacific strategy and then it will show in living color, the United States can at once lead the free world in responding to Russia's war in Ukraine, and that at the same time chart a course for effective, principled American leadership and engagement in a region that will define much of the future of the 21st century," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.
The war in eastern Europe has created a sense of urgency about China among major U.S. allies in the Pacific. Many have come to see the moment as their own existential crisis — one in which it's critical to show China it should not try to seize contested territory through military action.
Biden's overseas travel comes as he faces strong domestic headwinds: an infant formula shortage, budget-busting inflation, a rising number of COVID-19 infections, and increasing impatience among a Democratic base bracing for a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that is likely to result in a roll back of abortion rights. The conundrums Biden faces in Asia are no less daunting.
China's military assertiveness has grown over the course of Biden's presidency, with its provocative actions frequently putting the region on edge.Last month, China held military drills around Taiwan after a group of U.S. lawmakers arrived for talks on the self-governed island. Late last year China stepped up sorties into Taiwan's air space. Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, but Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve unification.Japan has reported frequent intrusions by China's military vessels into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The uninhabited islets are controlled by Japan but claimed by China, which calls them Diaoyu. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday criticized what he called negative moves by Washington and Tokyo against Beijing during a video call with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi. "What arouses attention and vigilance is the fact that, even before the American leader has set out for the meeting, the so-called joint Japan-U.S. anti-China rhetoric is already kicking up dust," Wang said, according to China's Foreign Ministry.
Meanwhile, South Korea could tilt closer to the U.S. under Yoon, who took office last week. The new South Korean president has criticized his predecessor as "subservient" to China by seeking to balance the relationships with Washington and Beijing. To neutralize North Korea's nuclear threats, Yoon has pledged to seek a stronger U.S. security commitment.
The Biden administration has warned China against assisting Russia in its war with Ukraine. In March, the U.S. informed Asian and European allies that American intelligence determined that China had signaled to Russia a willingness to provide military support and financial backing to reduce the blow of severe sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. Biden administration officials say that the Russian invasion has been a clarifying moment for some of the bigger powers in Asia as financial sanctions and export bans have been put in place to check Russia. U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, Biden's top envoy to Japan, said the Japanese have stood out by rallying eight of 10 members of Association of Southeast Nations to back a U.N. vote against the Russian invasion. "Japan has been a pacesetter that has picked up and set the pace for South Korea, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and others here in the Indo Pacific area," Emanuel said of Tokyo's support of Ukraine following the Russian invasion. Biden, who is making his first presidential trip to Asia, met Kishida briefly on the sidelines of a U.N. climate conference last year shortly after the Japanese prime minister took office. He has yet to meet with Yoon face-to-face. The South Korean leader, a former prosecutor who came to office without political or foreign policy experience, was elected in a closely fought election.
Biden arrives in the midst of an unfolding crisis in North Korea, where a mass COVID-19 outbreak is spreading through its unvaccinated population. North Korea acknowledged domestic COVID-19 infections for the first time last week, ending a widely doubted claim it had been virus-free.
In recent months, North Korea has test-launched a spate of missiles in what experts see as an attempt to modernize its weapons and pressure its rivals to accept the country as a nuclear state and relax their sanctions. Sullivan said U.S. intelligence officials have determined there's a "genuine possibility" that North Korea will conduct another ballistic missile test or nuclear test around the time of Biden's visit to Asia. To be certain, China will also be carefully watching for "cracks in the relationship" during Biden's trip, said Scott Kennedy, a China economic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Sullivan confirmed that Biden will use the trip to launch the long-anticipated Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a proposed pact to set rules for trade and digital standards, ensuring reliable supply chains, worker protections, decarbonization and tax and anticorruption issues. Known as IPEF, it's a planned substitute for the Trans-Pacific Partnership that President Donald Trump left in 2017 and that the Biden administration has not rejoined.
In terms of economic power, the U.S. slightly lags China in the Pacific, according to the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. But the institute's analysis shows the possibility that a trade pact could magnify the combined power of the U.S. and its allies relative to China. Biden's challenge is that IPEF would not necessarily cut tariff rates or give allied signatories greater access to U.S. markets, something Asian countries seek. Biden and his fellow leaders also have their own national interests and differences over what it means to strengthen supply chains that have been rattled by the coronavirus pandemic.
The Democratic president says the U.S. must increase computer chip production on American soil. The shortage has fueled inflation by delaying production of autos, life-saving medical devices, smartphones, video game consoles, laptops and other modern conveniences. Yet allies in Asia are talking about the need to expand their capacity for making semiconductors — a valuable export — in their own countries.
Source
Prominent Afghans from southern Afghanistan, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, said the Pakistani Taliban and Pakistani Baluch secessionists had established several safe houses in the area during the previous U.S.-backed government's rule and they have remained since the Taliban takeover. The Pakistani airstrikes in April marked a dramatically tougher stance. They came after a militant ambush killed seven soldiers near the border with Afghanistan. Pakistani and Afghani border forces often exchange rocket fire amid disputes over the frontier — but it is rare for Pakistan to use warplanes on targets inside its neighbor.
The change came after weeks of political turmoil in Pakistan that unseated Imran Khan as prime minister. Khan had been an advocate of negotiations with militants and had campaigned for the world to engage with the Taliban after their takeover in Afghanistan.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the U.S.-based Wilson Center said Khan "had a soft spot for the Taliban as well as a principled opposition to the use of force in Afghanistan."
With Khan now out of the picture and TTP attacks continuing, "we can expect a stronger Pakistani readiness to use military operations," he said.
The Afghan Taliban are warning Pakistan against further military action, threatening retaliation. The airstrikes "are not acceptable," Taliban-appointed Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob warned Pakistan in late April. "The only reason we have tolerated this attack is because of our national interest, but it is possible we will not be so tolerant in the future."The son of the Taliban founder, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Yaqoob is a powerful figure in the Taliban leadership, which is struggling to stay united amid disagreements about how to govern their war-ravaged nation.
The leadership council seems firmly split between two camps: the pragmatists and hard-liners. Pragmatists have pushed for global engagement and opening of schools to girls of all ages. The hard-liners want to return Afghanistan to the late 1990s Taliban rule when women and girls were denied access to most public spaces and a rigid and unforgiving version of Islam and tribal rule was imposed. A flurry of repressive edicts of late suggest the hard-liners have the upper hand, including an order that women wear all-encompassing veils that leave only the eyes visible and a decision not to allow girls to attend school past the sixth grade.Yaqoob falls among the pragmatists, according to several prominent Afghans familiar with the Taliban leadership. Still, there seems no decision among the leaders on either side of the divide to oust militants on their territory. "I do not see any quick fix to the Pakistan-Afghan situation. The Taliban will continue to provide sanctuary to the TTP and hope they can extend their own influence into Pakistan over time," said Shuja Nawaz, an expert and fellow at the South Asia Center of the U.S-based Atlantic Council. "So, expect the situation to deteriorate, especially with the (Pakistan) military calling the shots on Afghan policy," Nawaz said.

Iraq’s Kadhimi Ends ‘Green Zone Era,’ Vows Restoring Neighborhoods’ Original Names
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
Iraqi Caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi dropped a bombshell by announcing that the era of Baghdad’s “Green Zone,” which was set up during the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, is nearing its end. Kadhimi, during a Tuesday visit to the Municipality of Baghdad, pledged that the Green Zone in the center of the security-fortified capital would return to its previous era, like the rest of the capital. The premier’s statements came a day after he dismissed Baghdad Mayor Alaa Maan over the ongoing suffering of the capital’s 12 million people. At the Municipality, Kadhimi said in remarks carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that “the visit aims to follow up the workflow directly,” stressing “his direct communication with the Municipality in the coming period.”“The concept of the Green Zone must change, and return to its previous era, with the original names of its neighborhoods,” he added. The Prime Minister directed “to launch cleanliness campaigns,” stressing: “We all have to work for a clean Baghdad.”He continued, “Baghdad is an ancient historical city with a cultural atmosphere, some of its streets have lost their identity,” stressing “work to restore this identity.”Kadhimi is the second prime minister to take power after 2003. He must deal with the file of the heavily fortified Green Zone, which includes government and parliament buildings as well as the US embassy and a number of headquarters of Arab and foreign embassies. The Green Zone also includes the headquarters, offices, and homes of many Iraqi leaders and politicians. Entry to the area is restricted to those holding special permits. While it is expected that Kadhimi’s decision will receive a great popular welcome due to the negative view that the Iraqi citizen holds to the Green Zone, the decision may face objections from political parties.

Lavrov Discusses with Sheikh Prospects of Palestinian-Israeli Settlement
Manama - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
Member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Central Committee of Fatah, Hussein al-Sheikh, met on Wednesday in Moscow with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his deputy Mikhail Bogdanov.
The meeting touched on latest developments in the Middle East and prospects of an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. The officials also discussed efforts to restore Palestinian national unity in accordance with the political program of the PLO, and means to further strengthen Russian-Palestinian relations, WAFA, the official Palestinian news agency reported. “Russia’s firm readiness to continue supporting the efforts of the Palestinian leadership to achieve the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people in establishing their independent state within the 1967 borders and to live in peace and security alongside Israel,” the agency quoted Lavrov as emphasizing. Russia Today reported that Lavrov conveyed his condolences during the meeting for the death of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, stressing the need for a comprehensive and objective investigation into her murder. The PLO delegation’s visit to Moscow comes two weeks after a similar visit by Hamas officials, who held talks with Bogdanov.

Erdogan Calls for NATO Support to Establish Safe Zone on Turkey-Syria Border
Ankara, Qamishli - Saeed Abdulrazzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to support his country's efforts to establish a safe zone on the border with Syria to accommodate refugees and ensure the security of the southern border.
"We have such a sensitivity as protecting our borders from attacks by terrorists' organizations," Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) in parliament. He added that NATO allies have never supported Turkey in its war against Kurdish armed groups, including the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the most significant component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist group closely tied to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Erdogan added that people are settling in safe areas in Syria now, calling on regional and NATO allies to support Turkey in these challenges and ensure it establishes a safe zone. Two weeks ago, the Turkish president announced a project to resettle one million Syrian refugees in Turkey in 13 residential communities within the Syrian lands adjacent to his country's southern borders. He affirmed that the comprehensive project allows the voluntary return of one million Syrians, with the support of Turkish and international civil organizations. The Turkish project includes constructing various facilities such as schools and hospitals. The Turkish president attacked some Turkish opposition parties calling for the return of the Syrians to their country, saying it is a "dirty plan" to keep raising the issue. He added that some "useless politicians who are intelligence remnants" constantly discuss the Syrian issue, but "I tell them that our party believes it is our historical and humanitarian responsibility to defend the oppressed who have sought refuge in our country." Meanwhile, the General Secretariat of the Kurdish National Council in Syria rejected Turkey's plan to settle one million Syrian refugees in the areas of military operations under Turkish influence in northern Syria. The secretariat issued a statement denouncing the "demographic change" in any part of the Syrian geography. The Council believes the project contradicts UN Resolution 2254 and creates conflicts among the Syrian people, noting the urgent need to ensure conducive conditions for refugees and displaced persons' safe and voluntary return to their original areas.The statement urged the countries concerned with the Syrian issue to take a clear and explicit position on the Turkish project and expedite the activation of the political process to find a final solution to the crisis to ensure the safe return of refugees and displaced persons to their homes in their original places of residence.

Pentagon: Most Casualties in Syria’s Baghouz Airstrike Were ISIS Militants
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 19 May, 2022
The Pentagon has completed a lengthy investigation into a deadly 2019 strike by US forces in Syria. The internal US Army investigation focused on an operation by a special US force operating in Syria, which launched an airstrike on an ISIS bastion in Baghouz on March 18, 2019.
In a memo released on Tuesday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he was “disappointed” with deficiencies in the handling of the initial review of the operation, which he said “contributed to a perception that the Department was not committed to transparency and was not taking the incident seriously.”That perception could have been prevented with a “timely review and a clear explication of the circumstances surrounding the strike.”Austin directed relevant authorities to improve their way in handling reports on casualties among civilians. “Protecting innocent civilians is fundamental to our operational success and is a strategic and moral imperative,” he stressed. The investigation was sparked last year after the New York Times reported that in the original strike the US military had covered up dozens of non-combatant deaths. The report said that 70 people, many of them women and children, had been killed in the strike. It said a US legal officer “flagged the strike as a possible war crime” and that “at nearly every step, the military made moves that concealed the catastrophic strike.”But the final report of the investigation rejected that conclusion Tuesday. It said that the US ground force commander for the anti-ISIS coalition received a request for airstrike support from Syrian Democratic Forces fighting the extremists. The commander “received confirmation that no civilians were in the strike area” and authorized the strike. However, they later found out there were civilians at the location. “No Rules of Engagement or Law of War violations occurred,” the investigation said. In addition, the commander “did not deliberately or with wanton disregard cause civilian casualties,” it said. The report said that “administrative deficiencies” delayed US military reporting on the strike, giving the impression that it was being covered up.Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby said that 53 combatants were killed, 51 of them adult males and one child, while four civilians died, one woman and three children. Another 15 civilians, 11 women and four children, were wounded, he added. Asked if anyone was being punished for the civilian deaths, Kirby said the investigation did not find the need to hold any individuals accountable. The probe “did not find that anybody acted outside the law of war, that there was no malicious intent,” Kirby said. “While we don’t always get everything right, we do try to improve. We do try to be as transparent as we can about what we learn,” he said.

China Warns US a ‘Dangerous Situation’ Forming Over Taiwan
Bloomberg/May 19/2022
Yang Jiechi makes the remarks in phone call with Jake Sullivan
US Navy admiral earlier said Taiwan should step up deterrence
China’s top diplomat again warned the US over its increased support for Taiwan, showing the island democracy remains a major sticking point between the world’s biggest economies as Beijing sent more military aircraft toward the island. “If the US side insists on playing the Taiwan card and goes further and further down the wrong road, it will certainly lead to a dangerous situation,” Yang Jiechi, Beijing’s top diplomat, said in a phone call with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Yang said Washington should “have a clear understanding of the situation,” according to a statement posted online by his nation’s Foreign Ministry. “China will certainly take firm action to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests,” he added. The White House issued a short statement on the Wednesday call, saying the pair “focused on regional security issues and nonproliferation.” They also discussed Russia’s war against Ukraine and specific issues in US-China relations, it added. The Yang-Sullivan call was the most high-level contact between the US and China since Joe Biden and Xi Jinping spoke in March, their first conversation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ties have remained frosty since then, with the nations sparring over Vladimir Putin, democracy in Hong Kong, forced labor allegations in Xinjiang and a range of other issues. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said on its website that four People’s Liberation Army aircraft, including a pair of J-16 fighter jets, entered its air defense identification zone on Wednesday, skirting close to the median line of the Taiwan Strait. China frequently lashes out at the US over its backing for Taiwan, saying it amounts to interference in its internal affairs. Xi told Biden in the March call that the issue could “have a disruptive impact on the relationship between the two countries” if it was not properly handled, and has referred to China’s quest to gain control of the democratically ruled island as a “historic mission.” Earlier this week, Admiral Michael Gilday, the top American naval officer, said Taiwan must prepare itself against potential Chinese aggression through military deterrence that includes getting the right weapons and training. Gilday said this was the “big lesson learned and a wakeup call” following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Why Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a US-China Clash: QuickTake
The US has stepped up its backing for Taiwan since the war in Ukraine started, with a group of senior senators including Republican Lindsey Graham visiting last month. China responded to that trip by conducting air and naval training near the island.
Last week, the State Department updated a Taiwan factsheet posted on its website, dropping a reference to not supporting the island’s independence, and describing it as “a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse.” It also said Taiwan was a key partner in the semiconductor industry and “other critical supply chains.”On Wednesday, more than 50 senators signed a letter urging Biden to include Taiwan as a partner in the proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, part of Washington’s efforts to counter China’s clout in Asia. Biden will hold a summit in Tokyo with the leaders of Japan, India and Australia as part of a trip to Asia that begins later this week. Those four nations form a grouping known as the Quad that is largely aimed at countering China’s influence. While the government of President Tsai Ing-wen asserts Taiwan is already a de facto independent nation in need of wider international recognition, Beijing claims it as part of its territory that must be brought under control by force if necessary. Tsai has played down worries Russia’s invasion could trigger a similar crisis for Taiwan in the near term. One of the reasons for that is the leadership in Beijing wants domestic stability before a twice-a-decade congress this year that is likely to hand Xi a precedent-defying third term in power.
— With assistance by Philip Glamann, and Cindy Wang

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 19-20/2022
Pro-Iran parties in Iraq want to ban ‘Israel normalization’ - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 19/2022
Since the creation of Israel, and even before, fascist, nationalist and religious far-right parties in the region have often used anti-Israel rhetoric as a way to come to power and maintain power.
Iraq’s parliament, which can’t seem to form a government or decide on important, basic issues and is in dire need of investment, is wasting time focusing on Israel.
The reason for this is that in some areas in the Middle East, the use of Israel as a foil and tool is important because failed states and armed militias backed by Iran use scaremongering about the Jewish state as a way to distract from their looting of various countries.
It is in this context that the Iraqi Council of Representatives wasted time on a draft law that would ban “normalization” with Israel. This is a largely mythical issue because few voices in Iraq are suggesting such a “normalization.” Iran has hijacked half of Iraq using pro-Iranian militias – and those groups are intensely hostile to Israel. While there are some Iraqis who may look with more kindness on Israel, their voices are marginalized. In addition, when they have tried to express any interest in peace, they have been prosecuted, persecuted or hounded out of the country.
The goal now of these anti-Israel activists in Iraq’s parliament is to pass a bill that would give the death penalty or life in prison for anyone who dared to even call for normalization with the Jewish state.
“According to the bill, which was published by Iraq’s state media in Arabic, all Iraqi officials – including those in the northern Kurdistan region, government institutions, private sector companies and the media – are banned from establishing relations with Israel or promoting normalization,” notes the New Arab.
The bill is supposedly backed by those close to the party led by Muqtada al-Sadr and also groups linked to Iran. The pro-Iranian Fatah Alliance has also backed this bill. The real story in Iraq is that these parties are likely trying to use the bill to pressure Kurdish parties in the northern autonomous Kurdistan region.
“This isn't to say Baghdad hasn't been under pressure to normalize with Israel – it has, not just externally but within, namely from the Kurdistan region, whose political elites have warm, yet well-established links with Israel," Middle East Monitor notes.
"Last year, at a conference organized by a US think-tank held in Erbil, over 300 tribal leaders called for normalization with Israel. However, this was swiftly condemned by Baghdad and arrest warrants were issued, [and] it was also branded an ‘illegal meeting’ by the federal government,” the media watchdog said." So the real story here is that some parties in Iraq want to draw attention to Israel, perhaps in order to undermine political opponents.
OVERALL, THIS new law and bill may not pass and is likely just a distraction. Even if it does pass, it doesn’t really matter because some countries already have anti-Israel laws. These kinds of laws are used merely to bully and silence anyone who wants peace or coexistence.
The goal doesn't really have anything to do with Israel, but is about trying to legislate silence – because some of the groups that push Israel-obsessive activism know that average people don’t care about Israel: They care about how they are being impoverished at home.
Since before the creation of the Jewish state, fascist, nationalist and religious far-right parties in the region have often used anti-Israel rhetoric as a way to come to power and maintain it. They will claim that their lack of progress at home, even poverty and abuses, are all about “resisting” Israel.
Iran, for instance, uses the claim to “resist” Israel as a way to infiltrate militias into Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.Anti-Israel activism is a cover for the drug trade in Syria, for the looting of Lebanon, and for other activities as well. Groups like the Houthis in Yemen have official slogans against Israel and Jews, part of an obsessive antisemitic worldview in the region that has for decades used hatred of Jews as a way to dominate.
Iraq’s parliament is a classic example of this, spending time on a bill about Israel while the country can’t even agree on basic things like a president and prime minister.

The Strongman Cometh ...Why Erdoğan suddenly has a problem with Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Eric S. Edelman/The Dispatch/May 19/2022
Despite the fulminations of the Kremlin’s television propagandists and Russian bureaucrats seeking to anticipate the dictator’s views, it appears that Vladimir Putin has “no problem” with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Despite earlier threats by a variety of Russian officials that the Nordic neutrals joining NATO would provoke “military-technical” reactions, including the possible deployment of nuclear weapons, it seems that Putin has bowed to the inevitable after a calm, respectful phone call with Finland’s impressive and statesmanlike President Sauli Niinisto. Despite Putin’s retreat, Turkey’s authoritarian boss Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has suddenly interposed his own objections, saying at first that Turkey was “not favorable” to Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO and subsequently doubling down, arguing that, “We will not say ‘yes’ to those [countries] who apply sanctions to Turkey.”
Erdoğan’s view seems to represent a change of heart from earlier Turkish support for Finnish membership, conveyed to Niinisto in an April 4 phone call and in bilateral diplomatic contacts, not to mention Turkey’s traditional support for NATO’s enlargement since the end of the Cold War. The Turkish volte face reportedly has left diplomats at NATO headquarters in Brussels furious with the Turks, despite the public statements that all is well and the clear expectation that the alliance ultimately will move forward with Finnish and Swedish membership.
In this regard, the Turkish authoritarian and kleptocrat seems to resemble no one more than former Illinois governor and convicted felon Rod Blagojevich who, when he found out he could appoint Barack Obama’s successor to the U.S. Senate, famously said, “I’ve got this thing and it’s f—ing golden. I’m not just giving it up for f—ing nothing.” Erdoğan sees the Finnish and Swedish application for membership as an opportunity to accomplish multiple objectives—burnishing his domestic position by highlighting the important international role he plays and gaining leverage with both the West and his difficult and complicated Russian neighbor.
In the first instance, we should recall that Erdoğan and the Turks have done this before in the NATO context. First in 2009, when then-Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen was on the verge of being appointed NATO secretary general and then again in 2019 when Turkish diplomats blocked NATO defense plans for the Baltic states and Poland. The pretext for threatening to veto Rasmussen was the “scandal” over the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammed published by the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten four years earlier. President Barack Obama’s first NATO summit ended up almost entirely consumed by negotiations with Erdoğan over measures to placate the Turkish leader’s alleged rage over Rasmussen’s insult to Muslims worldwide because of his defense of free expression. It turned out that Erdoğan’s concerns were perhaps more prosaic than principled: He later told Turkish television that he had relented after President Obama had promised that Rasmussen would have a Turkish deputy and that Turkish general officers would be better represented at NATO headquarters.
In the second instance, NATO had drawn up defense plans for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland at the latter’s request in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The alliance approved the plans at the December 2018 NATO London Summit, but Turkey blocked implementation, demanding that NATO recognize the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria as a terrorist group. After six months of intransigence Turkey finally lifted its objection under pressure from the rest of the allies.
Erdoğan’s “strongman” need for constant attention and his failure, so far, to secure a bilateral meeting with Biden or to establish the kind of access he enjoyed to the U.S. president under both Obama and Trump undoubtedly explain the Turkish leader’s initial reaction. Just as it took Obama’s persuasive efforts in 2009 to talk Erdoğan off the ledge regarding Rasmussen, I suspect President Biden will have to spend a disproportionate amount of time sweet-talking and jaw-boning Erdoğan to drop his opposition to Finland and Sweden. The opportunity cost will be high since the NATO summit in June should be focused on responding to Russian aggression and NATO’s new strategic concept in the light of rapidly changing security conditions in Europe.
Recognition by foreign leaders of Erdoğan’s international role serves more than to stroke his ego: It also serves an important domestic political need. As Turkey approaches elections in 2023, Erdoğan’s poll numbers have been sagging. He is undoubtedly calculating that the NATO spotlight will not just reinforce his international importance to the Turkish public the but tying the issue to Sweden’s support for Kurdish nationalists will predictably whip up Turkish nationalism. That can handily also serve as a distraction from the economic management disaster that Erdoğan has created in Turkey by his insistence on keeping interest rates low. The result has been a 70 percent inflation rate and enormous hardship for the Turkish public and businesses.
Erdoğan, however, is also looking for international leverage with both the U.S. and Russia and not just personal recognition. As is well known, Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air and missile defense system created a crisis in Turkey’s bilateral relationship with the U.S. and NATO. It led to Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 program and the imposition of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). In the wake of the F-35 cancellation, Turkey has recently approached the Biden administration seeking both upgrades to its existing F-16s and a request to purchase new, more advanced F-16s and associated weapons packages. A preliminary sale of upgrade kits and missiles worth about $300 million was recently informally notified to the Congress. Erdoğan may think that holding Finland and Sweden hostage will provide the Biden team with arguments on the Hill to proceed with these arms sales packages (both the preliminary package and the larger F-16 package that the Turks have requested). Erdoğan needs to proceed with caution, however, because as Mitch McConnell indicated in Helsinki on May 16, there is broad support for Finland and Sweden in Congress, and many members would like nothing better than to trade Turkey as a member for the two Nordic states. (There is no mechanism for kicking member states out of NATO, but this sentiment reflects Turkey’s loss of any real backing on Capitol Hill—which represents the toll that Erdoğan’s creeping authoritarianism and reflexive anti-Americanism has taken on Turkey’s much more robust support in the past).
Finally, Erdoğan may also calculate that creating a ruckus in NATO serves the purpose of endearing him to Putin and may redirect Russia’s attention away from the ongoing supply of TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine (one of the most effective weapons in Kyiv’s arsenal in destroying Russia’s invasion force), thus helping Erdoğan manage the complicated minuet he has been dancing with Putin—his closest “competimate”—for several years now.
It is almost certainly the case that Erdoğan and Turkey eventually will yield in the face of both blandishments and pressures from the other 29 allies in NATO and allow Finland and Sweden to take their place as capable and responsible allies, but not before he has reminded the rest of the alliance—once again—that an authoritarian Turkey remains an unpredictable and unreliable ally in a crucial geo-strategic location in the midst of Europe’s most serious crisis since the end of the Cold War.
*Eric S. Edelman is a former U.S. ambassador to both Finland (1998-2001) and Turkey (2003-2005) and was undersecretary of defense for policy (2005-2009). FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

خالد أبو طعمة: تسعي إيران إلى اجبارأميركا على الرضوخ لكل متطلباتها
Iran Trying to Force the US to Meet All Its Demands
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/May 19/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108769/khaled-abu-toameh-gatestone-institute-iran-trying-to-force-the-us-to-meet-all-its-demands-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%b7%d8%b9%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%b9%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a/

Iraqi writer Farouk Yousef pointed out that after the US gave Iran $90 billion following the signing of the nuclear agreement with the Obama administration in 2015… the bulk of the money… was spent on terrorist groups run by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as terrorist groups run covertly in other Arab countries.
[Iran is] trying to delay the signing of the nuclear agreement so that the mullahs succeed in forcing the Biden administration to accept all their demands, especially the removal of the IRGC from the list of foreign terrorist organizations.
“Biden was not ignorant of the wrong way he started [dealing with Iran]. All the countries in the region were telling him that the resumption of talks with Iran must include Iran’s missile program and its destabilizing activities in the region, including the activities of its militias that threaten stability in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Biden chose not to listen….” — Ali Al-Sarraf, Iraqi writer, Al-Ain, May 10, 2022.
“Biden could have told the mullahs that a return to the nuclear agreement would take place on the basis of three conditions: abandoning violations of the commitments in that agreement, curbing the missile program… and stopping the actions of militias that threaten the security and stability of the countries of the region…. The Revolutionary Guard is directly involved in the civil war and violence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen…. Iran’s own actions will prove to him that he took the wrong path.” — Ali Al-Sarraf, Al-Ain, May 10, 2022.
Like many Arabs, Al-Sarraf asked why the Biden administration was not defending the interests of America’s allies.
“[T]here is no sane person in the region willing to take seriously any reassuring words issued by [US Special Envoy for Iran] Robert Malley and other officials in the US administration concerned with the Iranian file. Every child now knows that these American officials have nothing but flattery for Iran, especially in light of the cold American reaction to the attacks it carried out against the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates….If anything has changed, it is for the worse.” — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Lebanese journalist, Elaph, March 30, 2022.
“How can a US administration gain the trust of its allies despite its refusal to take note that northern Yemen has become a base for Iranian missiles and drones? These missiles and drones are directed at the Arab Gulf states and are now threatening navigation in the Red Sea as well.” — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Elaph, March 30, 2022.
[T]he removal of the IRGC from the list of terrorist organizations would cause massive damage to the interests of the US. It will lose all its Arab friends, who will stop working with the Americans in a number of fields, including the war on terrorism.
It now remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will continue with its benighted policy of appeasing the mullahs or heed the insistent wake-up calls of America’s real allies.
Iran is trying to delay the signing of the nuclear agreement so that the mullahs succeed in forcing the Biden administration to accept all their demands, especially the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of foreign terrorist organizations. Pictured: Members of the IRGC march during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, in Tehran, on September 22, 2018.
As the European Union is trying to revive the stalled talks on restoring Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, many Arabs are again warning the Biden administration against rushing to strike a deal with the mullahs, saying this could jeopardize Washington’s relations with its Arab allies in the Middle East.
The Arabs are saying that they cannot understand why Biden is prepared to allow Iran’s mullahs to “humiliate” the US by setting their own conditions for restoring the nuclear agreement, including the demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organizations.
The Arabs are also reminding the Biden administration and the other world powers that Iran’s mullahs have not changed their dangerous policies that threaten the security and stability of a number of Arab countries.
Iraqi writer Farouk Yousef pointed out that after the US gave Iran $90 billion following the signing of the nuclear agreement with the Obama administration in 2015, the mullahs continued to support, finance and sponsor the activities of “evil forces” in the Middle East.
The “evil forces” refers to Iran’s terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthi militia in Yemen.
Yousef noted that the bulk of the money Iran received from the Obama administration was spent on terrorist groups run by the IRGC in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as terrorist groups run covertly in other Arab countries.
“It’s clear that the administration of Joe Biden wants to sign the nuclear agreement with Iran at any cost,” Yousef said.
“However, Iran, which is the beneficiary of that agreement in all cases, has been procrastinating and extending time in an attempt to impose new conditions to get more gains. The question is: Don’t the Americans realize that Iran, with its current ideological system, can only be a state outside international law in all its manifestations and meanings? Iran, which has supported terrorism in the region, will not abandon its militias. Iran cannot accept being a normal country. It will always be a source of chaos and damage to the stability and security of many countries in the region through its direct intervention in the internal affairs of these countries.”
Yousef warned that submission to the mullahs and appeasing them would mean that the US has given up its friendship with America’s traditional allies in the Arab world. It would also plunge the entire Middle East into more anarchy and instability, he cautioned.
“Reviving the nuclear agreement without imposing conditions on Iran that limit its expansionist and aggressive policy and its permanent interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region would mean that the US has decided to forfeit the friendship of those countries… It also means pushing the region towards chaos.”Yousef expressed concern that Iran seems to be dictating its conditions to the US administration, “which appears to be submissive to all Iranian conditions, including those related to its continued hegemony over four Arab countries [Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen] and its interference in the affairs of other Arab countries.”
Iran, he added, is “humiliating” the US administration by trying to delay the signing of the nuclear agreement so that the mullahs succeed in forcing the Biden administration to accept all their demands, especially the removal of the IRGC from the list of foreign terrorist organizations.
Another prominent Iraqi writer, Ali Al-Sarraf, pointed out that there is a clear majority in Congress that tells Biden that he took the wrong path in dealing with Iran.
“This majority has reminded Biden of what he should have paid attention to, but decided to ignore,” Al-Sarraf wrote.
“A false beginning cannot lead to a correct ending. Biden was not ignorant of the wrong way he started [dealing with Iran]. All the countries in the region were telling him that the resumption of talks with Iran must include Iran’s missile program and its destabilizing activities in the region, including the activities of its militias that threaten stability in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Biden chose not to listen to his country’s allies, including Israel. He refused to take the reservations of America’s allies into consideration. That is why America’s allies don’t trust him. They don’t trust Biden because he is committing a serious strategic mistake that threatens the interests and influence of the US and the interests and security of its allies.”
Al-Sarraf added that Biden could have told the mullahs that a return to the nuclear agreement would take place on the basis of three conditions: abandoning violations of the commitments in that agreement, curbing Iran’s ballistic missile program because it is an integral part of the threat, and stopping the actions of militias that threaten the security and stability of the countries of the region.
He, too, expressed concern over the possibility that the Biden administration would remove Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations.
The IRGC, Al-Sarraf noted, is directly involved in the civil war and violence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
“Worse, the Revolutionary Guard has turned these countries into victims of corruption and economic and security failure… They have also made tens of millions of the people in these countries who face the hardships of daily life in its most extreme forms and fall victim to the emergence of terrorist organizations.”
Like many Arabs, Al-Sarraf asked why the Biden administration was not defending the interests of America’s allies.
“The US, while looking after its interests in the region and maintaining a large military presence there, should take the Iranian threats into consideration, and even make these threats the most important issue… But Biden’s administration chose, from the outset, to ignore the Iranian threats and embark on the path of negotiating with Iran over the nuclear deal. Even if Biden chooses to ignore everyone and sign the agreement, he cannot later claim that he did not know the price. Biden will not be able to convince his allies in the region that he has reached a good deal. Iran’s own actions will prove to him that he took the wrong path.”Lebanese writer Rajeh El Khoury said that he shared the view that the mullahs were trying to gain more time before returning to the negotiations over the signing of a new nuclear agreement.
He also noted that Biden appears to be in a hurry to strike a deal with the mullahs because of the growing opposition he is facing at home. “It’s strange that the Biden administration is rushing to reach a deal with the Iranians at any cost,” he said.
El Khoury pointed out that even as the nuclear talks were underway in Vienna over the past year, Iran continued to meddle in the internal affairs of the Arab countries and endanger the security and stability of America’s allies in the Middle East.
Veteran Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah described the current US policy in the Middle East as “defective.”
This policy, he wrote, “has encouraged Iran to go far in threatening the countries of the region and their security with the help of the Revolutionary Guards.”
“To put it more clearly, there is no sane person in the region willing to take seriously any reassuring words issued by [US Special Envoy for Iran] Robert Malley and other officials in the US administration concerned with the Iranian file. Every child now knows that these American officials have nothing but flattery for Iran, especially in light of the cold American reaction to the attacks it carried out against the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”
From Barack Obama to Joe Biden, Kheirallah wrote, nothing has changed in Washington. “If anything has changed, it is for the worse.”
“The slogan raised in Washington remains that the Iranian nuclear file overshadows all crises in the Middle East and the Gulf, and that this file has nothing to do with the practices of the Islamic Republic in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. How can such an administration, which has abandoned its allies, including Saudi Arabia, succeed in responding to Vladimir Putin in Ukraine? How can a US administration gain the trust of its allies despite its refusal to take note that northern Yemen has become a base for Iranian missiles and drones? These missiles and drones are directed at the Arab Gulf states and are now threatening navigation in the Red Sea as well. The Biden administration failed the Ukrainian test. The tragedy is that it does not want to admit this and does not want to know why its allies do not trust it anymore.”
Emirati political analyst Salem Alketbi wrote that he, also, was worried about the collapse of the strategic partnership between the US and its Arab allies.
Alketbi pointed out that the Biden administration made a mistake when it removed the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations because that only increased tensions in Yemen and the rest of the region.
“The decision did not serve the interests of the US… It would be a mistake to remove the Revolutionary Guard from the list of terrorist organizations because it will lead to the same catastrophic results, will be costly for the Americans and lead to the collapse of US relations with strategic partners in the Gulf.”
Alketbi advised the Biden administration to conduct a “comprehensive review” of its role and policies in the Middle East in order to address the mistakes and not to add to them by committing new ones. “What is needed is not a step that deepens the dispute with the allies, but steps to restore confidence and bridge the gaps.”The concerns expressed by the Arabs over the policies of the Biden administration towards Iran and Washington’s Arab allies should sound a loud alarm bell in the US.
The Arabs are saying that they have lost confidence in the Biden administration because its policies will lead to disastrous results and endanger the security and stability of several Arab countries.
It is clear that the Arabs see Iran as the main threat, by far, to their security.
It is also clear that a return to the nuclear agreement and the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations would cause massive damage to the interests of the US. It will lose all its Arab friends, who will stop working with the Americans in a number of fields, including the war on terrorism. It now remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will continue with its benighted policy of appeasing the mullahs or heed the insistent wake-up calls of America’s real allies.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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Expect another major uprising soon in Iran
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 19/2022
The Iranian people’s frustration with the clerical establishment has reached a new high, which could endanger the regime’s hold on power. The real threat against the ruling clerics of Iran comes from within, not abroad.
During his presidential campaign, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi made bold promises that his administration, unlike the government of the former president, Hassan Rouhani, would be a strong force in “supporting the underprivileged,” “eliminating absolute poverty,” and “constructing one million homes.” But now, after less than a year in office, living expenses have skyrocketed under Raisi’s watch.
The first problem is linked to the economy. The administration recently cut subsidies for imported wheat, which can lead to price rises as high as 300 percent for flour-based food such as bread. This has sparked protests and chants such as “Death to Raisi” and “Death to Khamenei” in many cities across the country. Inflation has reached more than 50 percent, one of the highest rates in the world. More than 41 million Iranians, in excess of half the population, are living below the poverty line. When it comes to the countries with the highest inflation rates, Iran is placed fifth in the world rankings after Venezuela, Zimbabwe, South Sudan and Argentina.
One of the main problems lies in the fact that while prices of food and commodities are going up 200-300 percent a year, workers’ wages have remained almost the same. Nastaran, an Iranian mother and teacher living in the capital Tehran, explained: “My salary is 3,000,000 toman a month (roughly $100), and the government just made the price of one loaf of bread 10,000 toman (roughly 36 cents). Me and my children use five loaves of bread a day; this means that half of my salary will only go to the cost of bread. What about my rent, other food, the children’s schooling, medical expenses, electricity, gas, water bills? Every president has promised to improve the situation, but it keeps getting worse.”
Even Iran’s state-owned news outlets have been warning about the economic crisis, the potential uprising, and criticizing president Raisi, who is believed to be the cleric who will succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader. For example, the semi-official ILNA news agency wrote recently: “In less than two months, high prices have significantly emptied working families’ product baskets. The minimum wages were raised by 57 percent this year; however, the average increase in foodstuff prices was more than 200 percent, meaning a 150 percent decrease in ‘workers’ real wages.”
Without a doubt, the regime always resorts to its preferred modus operandi by responding with brute force in the face of demonstrations. The last widespread uprising occurred in 2019 — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was deployed and about 1,500 people were killed. In fact, a member of the IRGC admitted in connection with the November 2019 uprising: “I am a senior revolutionary guards officer in Tehran. I volunteered to testify in this court. I witnessed mass arrests and interrogations. Unfortunately, I was part of the arrests and witnessed the interrogation . . . The forces were ordered that they were free to open fire, arrest, interrogate, enter homes that suspects might have fled to. There was no need for a warrant from the prosecutor’s office. They were told to confiscate vehicles, destroy vehicles, do anything you can to quell the protests.”
One of the main problems lies in the fact that while prices of food and commodities are going up 200-300 percent a year, workers’ wages have remained almost the same.
It is important to point out that Iranian people’s financial problems result mainly from the government’s inefficient fiscal and monetary policies; the leadership’s reluctance to redistribute wealth; economic mismanagement; the hemorrhaging of the nation’s wealth through spending on terror and militia groups; corruption among officials; the lack of a robust private market; and a state-controlled economy that has pushed more people into poverty. The state’s monopolization of the economy applies to almost every sector. When it comes to Iran’s economic system, the supreme leader and the IRGC enjoy a considerable amount of control and shares in almost all industries, including financial institutions and banks, transportation, automobile manufacturing, mining, commerce, and the oil and gas sectors.
Nevertheless, the political nature of the Iranian people’s dissatisfaction with the regime should not be disregarded. People are robustly opposing the ruling clerics’ authoritarianism, despotism and suppression of freedom.
Indeed, the winds of change are blowing firmly against the Iranian regime inside the country. The Islamic Republic should be alarmed due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people are fed up with the clerical establishment from an economic and political perspective. At some point, the IRGC and its paramilitary group, the Basij, will not be able to subdue everyone with brute force, no matter how powerful they are.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh