English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 03/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
The love of money is a root of all kinds of evil/Those who want to be rich fall
into temptation and are trapped by many senseless and harmful desires
First Letter to Timothy 06/06-12/ Of course, there is great
gain in godliness combined with contentment; for we brought nothing into the
world, so that we can take nothing out of it; but if we have food and clothing,
we will be content with these. But those who want to be rich fall into
temptation and are trapped by many senseless and harmful desires that plunge
people into ruin and destruction. For the love of money is a root of all kinds
of evil, and in their eagerness to be rich some have wandered away from the
faith and pierced themselves with many pains. But as for you, man of God, shun
all this; pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, endurance, gentleness.
Fight the good fight of the faith; take hold of the eternal life, to which you
were called and for which you made the good confession in the presence of many
witnesses.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on March 02-03/2022
Mudallali addresses UN Secretary General during assembly meeting
Senior U.S. Treasury delegation concludes three-day visit to Lebanon
President Aoun holds meeting with Premier Mikati, Minister Bou Habib over
Lebanon's position on military developments between Russia and Ukraine
Lebanon’s President Tells US his Country is Fighting Money Laundering, Terrorist
Financing
President Aoun addresses security situation with National Defense Minister,
meets US Ambassador and UN’s Rushdie
President Aoun on “Twitter”: Presidency outside circle of targeting
Berri registers for upcoming parliamentary elections
Berri refers 2022 budget to finance and budget parliamentary committee
Berri meets UN’s Rushdie, Head of diplomatic mission of Kazakhstan
Deputy PM Office: IMF team visited Beirut to take stock of work done already
U.S. Treasury Delegation Urges Lebanon to Maximize Returns to Lebanese
Depositors
Foreign Minister meets diplomats, US Treasury delegation, UN Special Coordinator
Nasrallah Reveals Electoral Tactics, Names of Candidates
Jumblatt cables Ukrainian Ambassador, expresses solidarity with Ukrainian people
KSA Says Seized 600 Million Captagon Pills from Lebanon in 6 Years
Abboud-Oueidat Row on Othman Torpedoes Judicial Council Meeting
40 Lebanese Fleeing Ukraine's War Land in Beirut
Germany's KfW and UNOPS Support Communities Affected by Beirut Port Explosion
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 02-03/2022
Egypt: Yet Another Ancient Coptic Monastery Left to Ruin/Raymond
Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/March 02/2022
Top UN Court to Hold Ukraine War Hearings
Russian Airborne Troops Land in Ukraine's Second City Kharkiv
As Russia Batters Ukraine, Both Sides Ready for More Talks
Russia Aims to Erase Us, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says on Day 7 of War
UN Says Ukraine Refugee Surge Soon to Hit 1M
Kremlin Critic Navalny Calls for Daily Anti-war Protests in Russia
Russia Receives Venezuela's 'Strong Support'
EU Approves New Sanctions against Belarus over Ukraine Invasion
China Will Not Join Sanctions on Russia, Banking Regulator Says
German Leader Visits Israel as Russia-Ukraine War Rages
Bitter Experience with US Is Reason for Iran to Push for Sustainable Nuclear
Deal, Says Top Official
Satellite Photos Show Iran Had Another Failed Space Launch
E3 Group Rejects Compromising IAEA Independence amid Tehran Pressure
Washington Rallies its Allies over Syria for 'Ukrainian Reasons'
Egypt, Iraq Boost Cooperation Through Military Production
Statement on behalf of the Chair of the Freedom Online Coalition: A call to
action on state-sponsored disinformation in Ukraine
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 02-03/2022
Five Lessons Learned From Sanctions on Iran for the Ukraine Crisis/Saeed
Ghasseminejad and Behnam Ben TalebluThe National Interest/March 02/2022
What the West should do now to help Ukrainians on the battlefield/Ryan Brobst/Bradley
Bowman/John Hardie/Jack Sullivan/Defense News/March 02/2022
Russia, Ukraine and the West’s grand delusion of freedom/Clifford D. May
/Washington Times/March 02/2022
Biden's 'Capitulation' To Iran Endangers Arabs, Middle East, U.S./Khaled Abu
Toameh/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
Ukraine Flies the Flag for a More Assertive Europe/Lionel
Laurent/Bloomberg/March 02/2022
Russia’s Next Target for Intimidation Could Be Israel/Ksenia Svetlova/The
Tablet/March 02/2022
Lessons Learned By Friend And Foe From Putin's Debacle/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/March
02/2022
The UAE and His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Lead the
Way Again by Donating $5 Million for Humanitarian Support to the
Ukrainians/Edward Johnson/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
on March 02-03/2022
Mudallali addresses UN Secretary General
during assembly meeting
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
In the wake of the United Nations General Assembly’s vote on Wednesday against
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Permanent Representative of Lebanon to the
United Nations, Amal Mudallali, addressed UN Secretary General, António Guterres,
with the following speech:
“Mr. President,
Lebanon voted Yes on this resolution because Lebanon, a founding member of the
UN, believes in the purposes and principles of the United Nations charter
especially: the prohibition of the threat or use of force in international
relations, the principle of non-intervention, and the peaceful settlement of
disputes.
Mr. President,
These are not mere slogans for Lebanon. We lived through invasions, occupation,
intervention in Lebanon’s internal affairs, and experienced devastation, loss
and pain that we are still enduring its consequences today. That’s why our
decision today was not taken lightly. We know what war means. But we also know
that wars happen not only when people fail to prevent them, but most importantly
when the voices of war drown the cries for peace. Lebanon, a peace-loving
nation, enjoys good relations and friendships with all parties to this conflict,
with Russia and Ukraine, and in this spirit, we call on everybody to go back to
the logic of peace.
Mr. President,
Yesterday, a European colleague told me he has never lived through war. I lived
through at least 2 invasions, civil war, multiple assassinations and explosions.
That’s why Mr. President, I don’t want anybody to live in what we lived through.
It’s time for diplomacy, for dialogue, and a peaceful resolution of this
conflict. I hope that all my colleagues here in this GA hall will put the same
energy and commitment that was put to make this vote and its result a reality,
to start working for a peaceful solution that takes both sides’s concerns and
interests into consideration, so the world will step away from this abyss of
war.
Mr. president,
The preamble of the UN charter tells us “to unite our strength, to maintain
international peace and security”. Now we need this unity. Unity for peace. The
United Nations is well positioned to step up and step in to make this peace a
reality. Now we need to stop the escalation in words and deeds and help both
sides to take the path of peace for the sake not only of the two sides but for
the sake of our world.
Mr. President,
We in the Middle East are very concerned about this war because of its impact on
Europe, but also because we know from experience that what happens in Europe
does not stay in Europe. The last 2 World Wars left deep scars in our part of
the world, obliterated countries and hopes, and we are still living its
aftermath today. I hope Mr. President we all learn the lessons of the last wars
and I hope that from this moment we start working only for peace, peace in our
time, peace in all time.
Mr. President,
I agree with Albert Camus in his speech upon receiving the Nobel Prize in
literature in 1957, that “Probably, every generation sees itself as charged with
remaking the world. Mine, however, knows that it will not remake the world. But
its task is perhaps even greater, for it consists in keeping the world from
destroying itself.”This is the same responsibility bestoed upon us, as the
Charter instructed to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.
I thank you Mr. President.”
Senior U.S. Treasury delegation concludes three-day
visit to Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
A senior delegation from the U.S. Department of the Treasury concluded a
three-day visit to Lebanon on March 2. The delegation met with members of the
Lebanese government, civil society, and the banking sector to reiterate the U.S.
government’s commitment to stand with the Lebanese people during this time of
economic turmoil. The delegation encouraged the work of the Lebanese government
to develop a possible International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported program, and
it noted that such a program could help restore much needed confidence in the
economic system. The delegation raised the crippling nature of systemic
corruption and identified specific areas critical to address the lack of
transparency and accountability in its meetings with the public and private
sector, emphasizing that addressing corruption in Lebanon is a pre-requisite to
tackling the governance and economic crisis. The delegation also urged
government and bank officials to ensure that any financial recovery plan
maximizes the returns to Lebanese depositors, especially those with relatively
smaller accounts, while emphasizing the need for swift action toward improving
the financial system.
The delegation emphasized the need for the Government of Lebanon to implement
deep, meaningful reforms prior to the elections. The delegation highlighted
U.S.-designated Al Qard Al Hassan as one example of an unregulated,
pseudo-financial institution that abuses its Ministry of Interior-granted NGO
license and provides cover to Hizballah’s financial activity, jeopardizing the
credibility of the Lebanese financial system. The delegation also raised
concerns about abuses within the banking system by members of the political and
economic elite. They emphasized the need to make serious efforts to investigate
those abuses, particularly by the Banque du Liban and the Special Investigation
Commission. They pressed for the appropriate authorities to conduct
investigations and perform due diligence on any related transactions. The
delegation also discussed relevant preparations for Lebanon’s upcoming Middle
East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) mutual evaluation.
The Treasury officials also thanked the Lebanese government for its strong
stance opposing the unjustified, unprovoked, and premeditated invasion of
Ukraine.
President Aoun holds meeting with Premier Mikati, Minister Bou Habib over
Lebanon's position on military developments between Russia and Ukraine
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, held a meeting attended by Prime
Minister, Najib Mikati and Foreign Affairs Minister, Abdullah Bou Habib, this
afternoon at the Presidential Palace.
The meeting was devoted to study Lebanon's position on the military developments
between Russia and Ukraine.
Meeting Statement:
After the meeting, Minister Bou Habib made the following statement:
“In light of the invitation addressed to the United Nations General Assembly
this evening, (Beirut Time) to discuss the emerging crisis between the Russian
Federation and Ukraine, and based on the historical relations which unite
Lebanon and the Russian Federation, and since Lebanon has suffered from military
aggressions and invasions against its sovereignty, land and people, and in
accordance with the provisions of the UN Charter, in which Lebanon was one of
the participants in issuing, and since Lebanon believes that military conflicts
leave nothing but tragedies, damage, losses, blood and destruction on countries
and peoples, Based on Lebanon’s firm conviction that dialogue remains the only
available option for resolving disputes between states based on international
charters, Lebanon calls on the United Nations General Assembly to work on
enhancing opportunities for negotiation between the Russian and Ukrainian sides
to reach a peaceful solution to the conflict, which restores security and
stability.
In light of the current situation, Lebanon remains consistent with its declared
position on Thursday, February 25th”. Victoria Nuland: President Aoun received a
phone call from US Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria
Nuland. Nuland discussed bilateral relations and ways of enhancing them in all
fields, especially with regard to cooperation between the two countries.
The call also tackled the stages of negotiations with the International Monetary
Fund, the results of the visit of the US Treasury delegation to Beirut, and the
developments of the file demarcation of the southern maritime border, in
addition to oil and electric power import from Egypt and Jordan through Syria.
Ongoing preparations for the Lebanese parliamentary elections, and military
developments between Russia and Ukraine were also addressed.—Presidency Press
Office
Lebanon’s President Tells US his Country is Fighting
Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun informed Tuesday a visiting US Treasury
delegation that Lebanon continues to combat corruption, money laundering and
terrorist financing operations. “Lebanese laws are applied firmly and accurately
in this field,” Aoun told the delegation during a meeting at the Presidential
Palace in Baabda. He indicated that Lebanon actively participates in
international efforts to combat money laundering, and plays its role in the
Financial Action Group in the Middle East region. “Accordingly, Lebanon
established the National Coordination Committee for Combating the Financing of
Terrorism and the National Anti-Corruption Commission,” the President said. The
US delegation visiting the Lebanese capital includes First Deputy Assistant
Secretary of the US Treasury responsible for combating the financing of
terrorism and financial crimes, Paul Ahren, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of
the US Treasury Eric Meyer. US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea also attended
the Baabda meeting. The Lebanese presidency in a statement said Aoun informed
members of the US delegation that the fight against corruption will continue
unabated in the remainder of this term. Later on Tuesday, the US delegation
visited Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain al-Tineh but did not make any statement.
Lebanon is struggling to take its steps out of a deep financial crisis that
triggered a collapse in the currency and soaring poverty.
President Aoun addresses security situation with
National Defense Minister, meets US Ambassador and UN’s Rushdie
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
President of the Republic on Wednesday met with National Defense Minister,
Maurice Sleem, at Baabda Palace. The meeting tackled general affairs and the
latest political developments, in addition to the security situation and the
needs of institutions affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, as well as the
situation of the Military Council after the cabinet appointed two members in it.
Military and social conditions, and the need to provide the necessary financial
support were also addressed.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator:
President Aoun received the UN Deputy Special Coordinator in Lebanon, the
Resident Coordinator for United Nations Activities and Humanitarian Coordinator,
Dr. Najat Rushdie. The most important points contained in the "UN Strategic
Framework for the years 2022-2026", and the areas through which the United
Nations intends to support for the Lebanese government and the Lebanese people,
in addition to the expected results of the aid and programs provided were
tackled in the meeting. Dr. Rushdie noted that "The framework describes the
unified vision of the various members of the UN family in Lebanon to support
Lebanon's priorities in security, politics, human rights, development and
humanitarian affairs”. For his side, President Aoun expressed his appreciation
for the role played by the United Nations to help Lebanon overcome its economic,
social and life crises, praising in particular "The great effort made by Dr.
Rushdie, especially in terms of coordinating the work of about 26 United Nations
agencies, programs and funds in Lebanon”. Moreover, President Aoun hoped that
the framework would be fruitful, especially in light of the great challenges
that Lebanon is facing at various levels, especially in the sectors of
education, health and hospitalization, in addition to the suffering of the
private sector, as a result of the current economic and financial crisis, “Which
constitute priorities that must be worked on”.
Statement:
After the meeting, Dr. Rushdi made the following statement:
“I met with His Excellency the President and his team, to present to him the
"new framework of the United Nations" with regard to development priorities for
the next three years, because for Lebanon, we are not only talking about
humanitarian aid, but also support for the private sector and economic and
social recovery services. His Excellency the President was clear in his
directives regarding priorities, as it is important for him to support basic
services for the Lebanese people, including the health and education sectors, in
addition to the energy sector, so that all Lebanese men and women are assured of
basic services and work to revive the private sector, with the aim of creating
job opportunities that contribute to the economic recovery as a whole. For us,
these are clear directives, and we will start working with the government and
parliament in the coming weeks and months so that we can finish this framework
so that it will be the pillar of the United Nations' support for the Lebanese
state”.
Questions & Answers:
In response to a question about whether this framework would lead to stopping or
easing the aid provided by the United Nations in general to Lebanon, Dr. Rushdie
replied: "The United Nations never stops the aid it provides, and as long as it
started providing it, this means that there are needs for it. Today there is no
way to stop it, and what concerns us, according to the directives of His
Excellency the President, is not to talk only about humanitarian aid, but to go
beyond it and move in a development sector, so that many resources that citizens
need for the purpose of development are secured, such as education, which
constitutes the future of the country, as well as health, so that citizens can
obtain medicine and health services, because if the patient is unable to obtain
medicine, this does not help in building a future for the country.
In this regard, we continue our consultations with the government, parliament,
civil and international society, and the private sector”.
US Ambassador:
President Aoun received the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, and
discussed with her the Lebanese-US relations, the recent international
developments and the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The stages that
the file of demarcation of the southern maritime borders has gone through were
also addressed.—Presidency Press Office
President Aoun on “Twitter”: Presidency outside circle
of targeting
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
In a tweet on Wednesday morning, President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun,
confirmed "that “The presidency is outside target area”, and that the President
of the Republic is the one who initiates negotiations in international treaties
and agreements and then concludes them with the Prime Minister, then the Council
of Ministers, and finally the Parliament, under the terms of Article 52 of the
Constitution. President Aoun wrote the following tweet: "I regret that some of
the Lebanese, officials and media figures, are ignorant of the constitution and
are drowning in nationally harmful statements about the president's position,
role and oath. The presidency is outside the circle of targeting. The President
begins negotiating international treaties and agreements, then concludes them
with the Prime Minister, then the Council of Ministers, and finally the
Parliament, under the terms of Article 52 of the Constitution”.—Presidency Press
Office
Berri registers for upcoming parliamentary elections
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday registered to run in the upcoming
parliamentary elections scheduled to take place on May 15 for the second South
Lebanon electoral district.
Berri refers 2022 budget to finance and budget
parliamentary committee
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday referred the 2022 state budget to the
finance and budget parliamentary committee. On another level, the House Speaker
cabled Algerian National Assembly President, Salah Goudjil, congratulating him
on his re-election.
Berri meets UN’s Rushdie, Head of diplomatic mission of
Kazakhstan
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday received at the Second Presidency in
Ain El-Tineh, United Nations Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon and
Humanitarian Coordinator, Najat Rushdie. Discussions reportedly touched on areas
of cooperation between the UN and the parliament. Speaker Berri also met with
the head of the diplomatic mission of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Lebanon,
Minister Plenipotentiary Yerjan Kalikinov, with whom he discussed the general
situation in Lebanon and the region, as well as the Lebanese-Kazakh relations.
Deputy PM Office: IMF team visited Beirut to take stock
of work done already
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The press office of Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Saadé Chami issued on Wednesday
the following statement:
“A technical team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Mr. Ernesto
Ramirez Rigo, visited Beirut for two days (February 28-March 1 2022). The team
met with members of the committee in charge of the negotiations with the IMF
(led by Dr. Saade Chami, Deputy Prime Minister) and also with the President of
the Republic, the Speaker of the Parliament, and the Prime Minister. The
objective of the visit was to take stock of the work done already and outline
the next steps needed to reach an agreement on the IMF program. This visit comes
less than a month after the IMF's virtual mission, building on the good progress
made during that mission. A full IMF mission could still visit Lebanon in the
second half of March to continue the discussions toward a Fund-supported
program. The IMF team and the Lebanese authorities agreed on the need for (i)
undertaking macroeconomic reforms in the areas of medium-term fiscal adjustment,
financial sector reform, and exchange rate unification, as well as on (ii)
structural reforms including poverty alleviation, governance, and electricity,
among others. The IMF team emphasized the need for some legislations required
prior to taking the program to the Executive Board of the IMF for final
approval. The two parties also agreed that any delay in undertaking the needed
reforms and the supporting legislations will raise the cost of adjustment in the
future.”
U.S. Treasury Delegation Urges Lebanon to Maximize
Returns to Lebanese Depositors
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
A senior delegation from the U.S. Department of the Treasury concluded a
three-day visit to Lebanon on Wednesday.
The delegation met with members of the Lebanese government, civil society, and
the banking sector to reiterate the U.S. government’s “commitment to stand with
the Lebanese people during this time of economic turmoil,” the Treasury said in
a statement. The delegation encouraged the work of the Lebanese government to
develop a possible International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported program, and it
noted that such a program “could help restore much needed confidence in the
economic system.” The delegation also raised the issue of “the crippling nature
of systemic corruption and identified specific areas critical to address the
lack of transparency and accountability in its meetings with the public and
private sector, emphasizing that addressing corruption in Lebanon is a
pre-requisite to tackling the governance and economic crisis,” the statement
said. The delegation also urged government and bank officials to ensure that any
financial recovery plan “maximizes the returns to Lebanese depositors,
especially those with relatively smaller accounts, while emphasizing the need
for swift action toward improving the financial system.”Moreover, the delegation
emphasized the need for the Government of Lebanon to implement “deep, meaningful
reforms prior to the elections.”Separately, the delegation highlighted
Hizbullah’s U.S.-designated al-Qard al- -Hassan financial institution as “one
example of an unregulated, pseudo-financial institution that abuses its Ministry
of Interior-granted NGO license and provides cover to Hizbullah’s financial
activity, jeopardizing the credibility of the Lebanese financial system,” the
statement said. The delegation also raised concerns about “abuses within the
banking system by members of the political and economic elite,” emphasizing the
need to “make serious efforts to investigate those abuses, particularly by the
Banque du Liban and the Special Investigation Commission.”They also pressed for
the appropriate authorities to “conduct investigations and perform due diligence
on any related transactions.” The delegation also discussed relevant
preparations for Lebanon’s upcoming Middle East and North Africa Financial
Action Task Force (MENAFATF) mutual evaluation. The Treasury officials also
thanked the Lebanese government for “its strong stance opposing the unjustified,
unprovoked, and premeditated invasion of Ukraine.”
Foreign Minister meets diplomats, US Treasury delegation,
UN Special Coordinator
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Abdallah Bou Habib, held on Wednesday
a joint meeting with Ambassador Merete Juhl of Denmark, Ambassador Hans Peter
van der Woude of the Netherlands, and Ambassador Przemyslaw Niesiolowski of
Poland, in addition to Czech Chargé d'Affaires Dagmar Minarikova, and Deputy
Ambassador of Germany Katharina Lack. The diplomats thanked Minister Bou Habib
for the Lebanese stance on the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. The meeting also
discussed the issue of Lebanese stranded in Ukraine and the assistance they are
receiving, especially from Poland.
Bou Habib later met with a delegation from the US Treasury, including Acting
Assistant Secretary and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Office of
Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, Paul Ahren, and his deputy Eric Mayer.
The Minister also received UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka,
who informed her host that she will head to New York to submit a report on
Lebanon at the UN Security Council's meeting. The pair also discussed the
upcoming parliamentary elections and the ministry's measures to facilitate the
vote of Lebanese expats.
Nasrallah Reveals Electoral Tactics, Names of Candidates
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday revealed his party’s
tactics for the upcoming parliamentary elections and the names of Hizbullah’s
candidates, the majority of whom are current MPs.
“In some districts, we will be on the same lists with allies and friends, and in
other districts we might be on two lists under an agreement based on electoral
interest,” Nasrallah said in a televised address dedicated to the issue of
elections.
Noting that we are no longer hearing accusations that Hizbullah and its allies
want to postpone the elections, Nasrallah said he can confirm that “the country
is heading to elections on the scheduled date in May.”
“Over the past four years, not everything that we talked about was fulfilled,
but there were seriousness and achievements,” Hizbullah’s leader added.
He announced the names of Hizbullah’s candidates as follows:
- Baabda district: Ali Ammar
- Jbeil district: Raed Berro
- Zahle district: Rami Abu Hamdan
- Baalbek-Hermel district: Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, Ibrahim al-Moussawi, Ihab
Hamadeh and Ali al-Muqdad
- Tyre district: Hassan Ezzeddine and Hussein Jishi
- Beirut’s second district: Amin Cherri
- Nabatiyeh district: Mohammed Raad
- Bint Jbeil district: Hassan Fadlallah
- Marjeyoun district: Ali Fayyad
Jumblatt cables Ukrainian Ambassador, expresses
solidarity with Ukrainian people
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, on Wednesday cabled
Ukrainian Ambassador to Lebanon, Ihor Ostash, expressing solidarity with the
Ukrainian people.
In his cable, Jumblatt said: “On behalf of the Progressive Socialist Party, I
express my solidarity with the Ukrainian people who are facing this unjustified
war and its tragic humanitarian consequences.
Only a diplomatic solution based on international law and previous treaties such
as the Minsk Agreement can solve this tragedy and stop the bloodshed."Jumblatt
received a response letter from the Ukrainian Ambassador, who expressed "great
respect for Jumblatt's personality and his contribution to Lebanon’s history.”
KSA Says Seized 600 Million Captagon Pills from Lebanon
in 6 Years
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
On a table covered in a green sheet, two Saudi officers pour out thousands of
white amphetamine pills they have just seized from a neighborhood in the
kingdom's Red Sea city of Jeddah. An AFP crew accompanied the anti-narcotics
agents on their raid Tuesday when police officers arrested three people carrying
28,000 Captagon tablets. The operation -- during which AFP was requested to turn
off its cameras for security reasons -- was part of the country's efforts to
crack down on dealers and smugglers of the amphetamine-type stimulant. "The
kingdom's authorities have in the past six years foiled attempts to smuggle more
than 600 million amphetamine pills" coming from Lebanon alone, Major Mohammed
al-Nujaidi, spokesman for Saudi Arabia's General Directorate of Narcotics
Control, told AFP. He accused the "Hizbullah terrorist militia" of being "the
main source smuggling them and manufacturing them." The Lebanese group, which is
backed by Iran, denies such accusations. According to the U.N. Office on Drugs
and Crime, Captagon has been manufactured mostly in Lebanon and Syria, where it
fueled jihadist fighters. Much of it is bound for Saudi Arabia. The country of
35 million, more than half of whom are under the age of 35, is witnessing
unprecedented social change and has long suffered from drugs. According to an
AFP count, more than 25 million Captagon pills have been seized across the
region since the start of the year. "There have been different smuggling
methods, including in fruits and vegetables, tires, rocks, building materials
and furniture," al-Nujaidi said.
More seizures -
Last April, the Saudi government suspended fruits and vegetables from Lebanon
after the seizure of more than five million Captagon pills hidden in fruit --
one in a series of smuggling attempts foiled last year by the Saudi authorities.
"It came at the right time," said the Saudi official, adding that the country
seized more Captagon pills in the first quarter of last year than it did in all
of 2019 and 2020. Lebanon is often criticized by Gulf countries for not
cooperating in the war against drugs, particularly Captagon. Beirut is embroiled
in its worst ever economic crisis and is keen to mend ties with the kingdom and
other Gulf nations, who have repeatedly voiced concern over Iran's growing
influence. In January, Lebanon said it intercepted a large quantity of Captagon
hidden in a tea shipment bound for Saudi Arabia, which the U.N. Office on Drugs
and Crime says from 2015-2019 reported the most amphetamine seizures in the
Middle East/Southwest Asia region. Shayaa al-Moussa, a customs agent at the
Jeddah port, said that all shipments arriving in the kingdom are scanned via
X-ray. "And, in case of suspicion, the containers are transferred to be searched
manually," he said. Nujaidi said Saudi authorities seized more than 119 million
amphetamine pills last year in cooperation with partners including Malaysia,
Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Abboud-Oueidat Row on Othman Torpedoes Judicial Council
Meeting
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The Higher Judicial Council failed to convene yesterday due to a dispute between
Council chief Judge Suheil Abboud and his deputy, State Prosecutor Ghassan
Oueidat, over putting a letter demanding the prosecution of ISF chief Maj. Gen.
Omad Othman on the session’s agenda, informed sources said. The letter was sent
by the lawyers of two activist groups -- the People Want to Reform the Regime
and the State Recovery Gathering.The letter was placed on the meeting’s agenda
“without the knowledge of Judge Oueidat, who categorically rejected the matter,
the thing that led to canceling the meeting,” the sources told al-Liwaa
newspaper in remarks published Wednesday.
40 Lebanese Fleeing Ukraine's War Land in Beirut
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
A plane carrying 40 Lebanese students, who had been trapped in Ukraine, arrived
Wednesday morning at Beirut's airport. The Higher Relief Committee had earlier
announced their arrival in a statement. It said that a series of contacts had
been made by the committee's Secretary-General, Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kheir, in
cooperation with the Foreign Ministry, a Lebanese expatriate businessman and the
Lebanese Embassy in Romania. Kheir had said that Lebanon will cover the expenses
of the evacuation of Lebanese nationals trapped in Ukraine. The plane with the
first group of Lebanese evacuees arrived from Bucharest overnight. Another one
will arrive in the upcoming days from Poland according to Maj. Gen. Mohamed
Kheir. "Romania was the easiest route,” Kheir said. Businessman Mohamad Murad
hosted the 40 Lebanese students in Romania and bought their tickets, the
National News Agency said. Murad said that others will also leave Bucharest to
Lebanon soon.
Germany's KfW and UNOPS Support Communities Affected by
Beirut Port Explosion
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The KfW Development Bank and the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)
have signed an agreement to rehabilitate damaged municipal infrastructure and
assets in the areas affected by the Beirut Port explosion in the next 3 years.
"With the support from the Federal Republic of Germany through the KfW
Development Bank, UNOPS will rehabilitate damaged public service buildings and
public spaces and restore critical urban services including roads, storm and
wastewater networks and provide solar energy solutions in the municipalities of
Beirut and Bourj Hammoud," UNOPS said, in a press release.
It added that the project – based on a thorough needs assessment and
consultation process which is currently ongoing - will focus on the most
damaged, low income, and underserved parts of the affected areas, as well as on
service delivery buildings serving the population in the Beirut and Bourj
Hammoud municipalities.Mr. Sascha Stadtler, Director KfW Office Lebanon, said
that "about 1 ½ years after the port explosion and much needed small scale
emergency measures by so many actors and donors including Germany , it is time
for a more comprehensive and coordinated reconstruction process of municipal
infrastructure and services in the affected areas. With a grant contribution of
20 million Euros Germany through KfW development bank is contributing to this
effort.""Together with UNOPS we want to capitalize on the achievements and
experiences reached so far by other national and international development
partners", Stadtler went on to say. "We are always guided by the principle:
building back better. At the end of the reconstruction process, we want to have
a city and a society that is more resilient to future crises,” he added. Mr.
Muhammad Usman Akram, UNOPS Director of the Amman Multi-country Office said for
his part that “our latest partnership with KfW in Lebanon seeks to enhance
community resilience and promote social cohesion through improving access to
critical services offered by Beirut and Bourj Hammoud municipalities."
"Thanks to the funding from Germany, UNOPS will assist in ensuring
sustainability of the recovery process for the benefit of the most affected
communities,” Akram added. UNOPS said that in addition to undertaking major
infrastructure works, it will engage with civil society actors and local NGOs in
implementing the project, given the key role played by local organizations in
responding to the Beirut Port explosion and their in-depth knowledge of the
communities’ needs."Through a small grants component, the project will support
creative, effective, and sustainable small initiatives that would benefit the
affected communities and promote social cohesion at the local level," UNOPS
stated. It added that it will also carry out capacity building activities for
the municipal personnel and other project partners, "in line with the UNOPS
mandate, related to the operations and maintenance of the rehabilitated assets
and infrastructure."On 4 August 2020, a devastating explosion rocked the Beirut
Port, destroying most of the port’s facilities and severely damaging the
surrounding neighborhoods within six kilometers of the port area. The disaster
left more than 200 people dead, around 6,000 injured or disabled, and estimated
300,000 homeless. Preliminary assessments indicated that the neighborhoods most
affected by the explosion are the municipality of Beirut in Beirut Governorate
and Bourj Hammoud, Bachoura, and Sin El Fil municipalities in Mount Lebanon
Governorate, UNOPS said.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on
March 02-03/2022
Egypt: Yet Another Ancient Coptic Monastery Left to Ruin
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/March 02/2022
Due to heavy rainfalls on Feb. 19, 2022, the Saint Paul monastery near the Red
Sea Mountains of Egypt suffered extreme damage—including collapsed walls and
devastation around the roads and countryside—as seen in a video published
shortly thereafter. Even the roads to and from the monastery have been cut off.
One of the monks published an urgent appeal, saying, “We are exposed to a
tragedy in the truest sense of the word—a tragedy unprecedented in scope.”
Founded in the fourth century, the monastery is named after Saint Paul the
Anchorite (227-341)—history’s very first Christian hermit, who preceded (and
inspired) Egypt’s more famous monk, Saint Anthony the Great. The monastery was
built around the cave that Saint Paul lived in for some 80 years and is place of
pilgrimage. It’s worth noting that a month earlier, on Jan. 6, 2022—ironically,
Christmas Eve for Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Christians—the walls of another
ancient Coptic monastery in Egypt, founded in the fifth century, came crumbling
down. In both cases, it seems clear that the government of Egypt has been
somewhat apathetic in preserving or repairing these nearly two-thousand year old
structures. After all, one seldom hears of the collapse of Egypt’s much older
pre-Christian antiquities, which are zealously maintained. Yet Egypt’s ancient
Christian heritage seldom gets the same care. To what extent, one wonders, is
such apathy an implicit response to Islamic law? As is well known, the so-called
Conditions of Omar (my partial translation here) maintains that, while
preexisting churches and monasteries may be allowed to exist, they should never
be repaired or refurbished; they are to be left to the ravages of Time. The
exact excerpt from the Conditions follows: “[conquered Christians are expected]
not to build a church in our city—nor a monastery, convent, or monk’s cell in
the surrounding areas—and not to repair those that fall in ruins or are in
Muslim quarters.”To reiterate, to what extent are these well-known teachings
influencing—even if subconsciously—the authorities’ nonchalant response to the
ongoing dilapidation of Egypt’s ancient Christian heritage?
Top UN Court to Hold Ukraine War Hearings
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The International Court of Justice said Tuesday it would hold genocide hearings
on March 7 and 8 over the war in Ukraine, as fighting intensifies. The
Hague-based ICJ, the United Nations' top court, will open the public hearings
after Ukraine lodged a complaint with the court to order Russia to stop its
invasion.
"The hearings will be devoted to the request for the indication of provisional
measures submitted by Ukraine," AFP quoted the court as saying in a statement.
More than 660,000 people have already fled abroad, the UN refugee agency said,
estimating that a million people are displaced within ex-Soviet Ukraine, which
has a population of 44 million. The UN estimates that up to four million
refugees may need help in the coming months and 12 million more will need
assistance within the country. The ICJ, which is based in the Netherlands
capital The Hague, does not have a mandate to bring criminal charges against
individual Russian leaders behind the invasion. But it is the world's top court
for resolving legal complaints between states over alleged breaches of
international law. International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan had
already announced he was launching an investigation on the "situation in
Ukraine" following Russia's invasion. "I am satisfied that there is a reasonable
basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have
been committed in Ukraine" since 2014, Khan said in a statement Monday. Russia
has defied international bans, boycotts and sanctions to press ahead with an
offensive it says is aimed at defending Ukraine's Russian speakers and toppling
the leadership. The United States trusts "the Court is taking into consideration
the dire circumstances and rapidly unfolding events," the State Department said
in a statement Tuesday. Spokesman Ned Price said Washington hopes the court
"will act with utmost urgency on Ukraine's request for provisional measures" in
the hearing. "Each day that Russia is unconstrained in its aggression is a day
that brings more violence, suffering, death, and destruction in Ukraine," he
said.
Russian Airborne Troops Land in Ukraine's Second City
Kharkiv
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Russian forces landed in Ukraine's second biggest city on Wednesday and
triggered immediate clashes in the streets of Kharkiv, the military said,
following Moscow's relentless air assault across the ex-Soviet state. The
airborne operation came as US President Joe Biden branded Vladimir Putin a
"dictator", warning the sanction campaign to cripple Russia's economy would
escalate and its oligarchs were being targeted, AFP said. In Biden's first State
of the Union address, he hailed the resolve of the Western alliance and voiced
solidarity with Ukraine as lawmakers in the US Congress gave a standing ovation
to the Ukrainian people. "A Russian dictator, invading a foreign country, has
costs around the world," Biden told lawmakers in his annual State of the Union
address, promising "robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is
targeted at Russia's economy."But as he spoke a Russian escalation was reported
to be underway in Kharkiv, an apparent bid by Moscow to capture its first major
Ukrainian city of the invasion. Since Russian troops rolled into Ukraine last
week to achieve Putin's mission of overthrowing the pro-Western government of
President Volodymyr Zelensky, hundreds of civilians have been reported killed.
Russian forces have carried out a massive bombing campaign and encircled urban
centers, but Ukraine insists no major city has yet been overtaken. "Russian
airborne troops landed in Kharkiv... and attacked a local hospital," the
Ukrainian army said in a statement on messaging app Telegram. "There is an
ongoing fight between the invaders and the Ukrainians."Russia hit a residential
building in the city on Tuesday killing eight people, drawing comparisons to the
massacres of civilians in Sarajevo in the 1990s and condemnation for what
Zelensky called a "war crime". A fire broke out on Wednesday in the barracks of
a flight school in Kharkiv following an airstrike, according to Anton
Gerashchenko, adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Minister. "Practically there are
no areas left in Kharkiv where an artillery shell has not yet hit," he was
quoted as saying in a statement on Telegram. Kharkiv, a largely Russian-speaking
city near the Russian border, has a population of around 1.4 million.
'Putin was wrong'
Biden, who had earlier spoken with Zelensky on the phone, announced new measures
against Russia and its wealthy elite with a new task force to go after the
"crimes" of Russian oligarchs. "We are coming for your ill-begotten gains," he
said, prompting the rare sight of members of both parties standing to applaud.
"And tonight I am announcing that we will join our allies in closing off
American air space to all Russian flights -- further isolating Russia and adding
an additional squeeze on their economy." The US leader said Putin's aggression
was "premeditated and totally unprovoked" -- but hailed the resolve of the
Western alliance in responding with brutal sanctions. "(Putin) thought he could
divide us here at home," Biden said. "But Putin was wrong. We are ready."He
repeated his commitment that no American troops would be sent to Ukraine to
confront the invading forces. A lack of will to send foreign troops into battle
has given Russia space to press on with its assault on Ukrainian cities. A
strike on the main TV tower in Kyiv killed five people Tuesday and knocked out
some state broadcasting, Ukrainian officials said, but left the structure
intact. Fresh explosions were heard late Tuesday in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva, 50
miles (80 kilometers) to the south, according to local media. News outlets also
reported Russian missiles damaging residential buildings and a hospital in
Zhytomyr, citing the major transport hub's mayor Sergei Sukhomline. The
International Criminal Court has opened a war crimes investigation against
Russia. Ukraine says more than 350 civilians, including 14 children, have been
killed in the conflict.
Belarus attack fears -
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also said overnight that it feared an attack
from Belarus over its northern border. "Belarusian troops have been put on high
alert and are concentrated in areas closest to the border with Ukraine," the
ministry said Tuesday in a statement on Facebook.
Ukrainian intelligence noted "significant activity" of aircraft in the border
area, it said. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday he had
ordered more troops to the south of the country, the Belta news agency reported.
But forces of Belarus, a close ally of Russia, would not be taking part in the
attack on Ukraine, he added. In southern Ukraine, the city of Mariupol on the
Azov Sea was left without electricity after Russian bombardment, while Kherson
on the Black Sea reported Russian checkpoints encircling the city. In a key
victory for Moscow, Russia's defense ministry said its troops had linked up with
pro-Moscow rebel forces from eastern Ukraine along the Azov Sea coast.
Companies exit Russia
Russia has defied international bans, boycotts and sanctions to press ahead with
an offensive it says is aimed at defending Ukraine's Russian speakers and
toppling the leadership. In response, more Western companies have withdrawn from
projects in Russia, deepening the economic toll on Moscow that saw the ruble
collapse this week. Apple, ExxonMobil and Boeing announced Tuesday in rapid
succession steps to withdraw or freeze business in Russia. The moves followed
earlier announcements by Disney, Ford and Mastercard among others.
The invasion has sent global markets into a spiral, with crude surging past $110
a barrel Wednesday and equities sinking. On top of sanctions, Germany has
promised arms for Ukraine, while the EU said, in a first, that it will buy and
supply arms to the country.
Zelensky has reiterated an urgent appeal for Ukraine to be admitted to the
European Union.
- No escape -
More than 660,000 people have fled abroad, the UN refugee agency said, and as
battles rage for control of major cities many more are expected to follow.
Residents of capital Kyiv are crammed into makeshift bomb shelters awaiting
their own fight, with a massive Russian military convoy stationed just north of
the city. Teacher Irina Butyak, 38, has spent two days in the basement of her
apartment block sheltering with some 20 people. "We have train tickets for
western Ukraine for tomorrow," she told AFP as air raid sirens blared directly
overhead.
"I don't think we will make the train."
As Russia Batters Ukraine, Both Sides Ready for More Talks
Associated Press/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Russia renewed its assault Wednesday on Ukraine's second-largest city in a
pounding that lit up the skyline with balls of fire over populated areas, even
as both sides said they were ready to resume talks aimed at stopping the new
devastating war in Europe.
The escalation of attacks on crowded cities followed an initial round of talks
between outgunned Ukraine and nuclear power Russia on Monday that resulted in
only a promise to meet again. It was not clear when new talks might take place —
or what they would yield. Ukraine's leader earlier said Russia must stop bombing
before another meeting. Seven days into the war, roughly 874,000 people have
fled Ukraine and the U.N. refugee agency warned the number could cross the 1
million mark soon. The overall death toll was not clear, but Ukraine's State
Emergency Service said more than 2,000 civilians have died. It was impossible to
verify that claim. Countless others have taken shelter underground, as Russia
continued its bombardment. Another attack came Wednesday on Kharkiv, a city with
a population of about 1.5 million, and a reported strike on a hospital in the
country's north. A 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of hundreds of Russian tanks
and other vehicles advanced slowly the capital of Kyiv, while Russian forces
pressed their assault on the strategic southern city of Kherson.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals are not clear, but the West has warned
he may be seeking to topple the government and install a Kremlin-friendly
regime.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has decried Russia's attacks on civilian
targets as a blatant terror campaign, while U.S. President Joe Biden warned on
Tuesday that if the Russian leader didn't "pay a price" for the invasion, the
aggression wouldn't stop with one country.
A Russian strike hit the regional police and intelligence headquarters in
Kharkiv, killing four people and wounding several, the state emergency service
of Ukraine said. It added that residential buildings were also hit, but did not
provide further details.
A blast blew the roof off of the five-story police building and set the top
floor alight, according to videos and photos released by the service. Pieces of
the building were strewn across adjacent streets.
In the northern city of Chernihiv, two cruise missiles hit a hospital, according
to the Ukrainian UNIAN news agency, which quoted the health administration
chief. Serhiy Pivovar said and authorities were working to determine the
casualty toll.
The attacks followed a day after one in Kharkiv's central square that shocked
many Ukrainians for hitting at the center of life in a major city. A Russian
strike also targeted a TV tower in the capital of Kyiv on Tuesday — and caused
damage at the nearby site of the Babi Yar Holocaust memorial. Zelenskyy, who
called the strike on the square in Kharkiv a war crime that the world would
never forget, expressed outrage Wednesday at the attack on Babi Yar, where Nazi
occupiers killed more than 33,000 Jews over two days in 1941.
He expressed concern that said other historically significant and religious
sites could be targeted and called on Jews around the world to protest the
invasion. "This is beyond humanity," Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, said in a speech
posted on Facebook. "They have orders to erase our history, our country and all
of us."Even as Russia pressed its assault, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said
Wednesday that a delegation would be ready later in the day to meet Ukrainian
officials.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also said his country was ready — but
noted that Russia's demands have not changed and that he wouldn't accept any
ultimatums. Neither side said where the talks might take place. As the war wears
on, Russia finds itself increasingly isolated, beset by the sanctions that have
thrown its economy into turmoil and left the country practically friendless,
apart from a few nations like China, Belarus and North Korea. There have been
some reports that Belarus is preparing to send troops into Ukraine, but
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said his country has no such
plans. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, acknowledged the global economic
punishment hitting Russia and Russians now is "unprecedented" but said Moscow
had been prepared for all manner of sanctions, and the potential damage had been
taken into account before launching the invasion.
"We have experience with this. We have been through several crises," he said.The
invading forces also pressed their assault on other towns and cities. Britain's
Defense Ministry said Kharkiv and the strategic port of Mariupol were encircled.
A third city, Kherson, is under pressure, but there were conflicting reports of
who controlled it. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, the
United Nations' nuclear watchdog, said it had received a letter from Russia
saying its military had taken control around Ukraine's largest nuclear power
plant. According to the letter, personnel at the plant continued their "work on
providing nuclear safety and monitoring radiation in normal mode of operation,"
and it said the "radiation levels remain normal."
Russia already seized control of the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power
plant, scene of the world's worst nuclear disaster in 1986.
The IAEA says that it has received a request from Ukraine to "provide immediate
assistance in coordinating activities in relation to the safety" of Chernobyl
and other sites. Many military experts worry that Russia may be shifting
tactics. Moscow's strategy in Chechnya and Syria was to use artillery and air
bombardments to pulverize cities and crush fighters' resolve. Britain's Defense
Ministry said it had seen an increase in Russian air and artillery strikes on
populated urban areas over the past two days. Human Rights Watch said it
documented a cluster bomb attack outside a hospital in Ukraine's east in recent
days. Residents also reported the use of such weapons in Kharkiv and Kiyanka
village. The Kremlin denied using cluster bombs.In the southern port city of
Mariupol, the mayor said Wednesday morning that the attacks had been relentless.
"We cannot even take the wounded from the streets, from houses and apartments
today, since the shelling does not stop," Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko was
quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying. Boychenko referred to Russia's
actions as a "genocide" — using the same word Putin has used to justify the
invasion.
Russia Aims to Erase Us, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says on Day 7
of War
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Russia is aiming to erase Ukraine, its history and people, President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy said in a video on Wednesday as the seventh day of Moscow's invasion
of its neighbor started with heavy shelling of the Black Sea port of Mariupol.
Moscow switched to strikes on Ukrainian cities on Tuesday and appeared poised
for an advance on Kyiv as the West tightened an economic noose around Russia in
retaliation. But Zelenskiy, unshaven and wearing a khaki T-shirt, said the
West's response was not enough, calling for more international support,
including backing Ukraine's bid to join the European Union.
"This is no time to be neutral," said Zelenskiy, whose defiant and emotional
tone in regular video addresses have offered his country support and leadership
in the war, which he said killed nearly 6,000 Russian troops so far. Referring
to the Tuesday shelling in Kyiv next to Babyn Yar - the site of a World War Two
massacre of tens of thousands of Jews by German occupation troops and Ukrainian
auxiliaries - Zelenskiy said: "This strike proves that for many people in Russia
our Kyiv is absolutely foreign." "They don't know a thing about Kyiv, about our
history. But they all have orders to erase our history, erase our country, erase
us all." Ukraine's south-eastern Azov Sea port of Mariupol was under constant
shelling and unable to evacuate the injured while Kherson, on the Black Sea to
the west, was completely surrounded by invading Russian forces, local
authorities said on Wednesday. "We all died again by Babyn Yar. Although the
world has promised again and again that it will never happen again," said
Zelenskiy. "Don't you see what is happening? That's why it is very important now
that you, millions of Jews around the world, do not stay silent. Because Nazism
is born in silence. Scream about murdering of civilians, scream about murdering
of Ukrainians."
UN Says Ukraine Refugee Surge Soon to Hit 1M
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The UN refugee agency says more than 874,000 people have fled Ukraine since
Russia’s invasion last week and the figure is “rising exponentially,” putting it
on track to cross the 1 million mark possibly within hours. UNHCR spokeswoman
Shabia Mantoo said Wednesday that people are continuing to stream into Ukraine’s
neighboring countries to the west, with more than 200,000 fleeing since Tuesday,
The Associated Press said. A day earlier, Mantoo had cautioned that the outflows
from Ukraine could make it the source of the “biggest refugee crisis this
century” — eclipsing the one from Syria’s war over the last decade. She noted
that UNHCR had previously projected that as many as 4 million people might flee
Ukraine, but noted that the agency will be re-evaluating its forecast. The
latest figures show that more than half — or nearly 454,000 — have gone to
Poland, more than 116,300 to Hungary and over 79,300 to Moldova. Another 69,000
have gone to other European countries and 67,000 have fled to Slovakia. Mantoo
noted that the figure of 874,000 was an increase from more than 660,000 only a
day earlier — and some 116,000 on Saturday, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine on Feb. 24.
Kremlin Critic Navalny Calls for Daily Anti-war Protests in
Russia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has called on Russians to stage daily
protests against Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, depicting President Vladimir
Putin as an "obviously insane tsar."Navalny called for protests across the
country and abroad to signal that not all Russians support the war and show
solidarity with the thousands of people detained in anti-war protests in Russia
since last week's invasion. "We cannot wait even a day longer. Wherever you are.
In Russia, Belarus or on the other side of the planet. Go out onto the main
square of your city every weekday at 19.00 and at 14.00 at weekends and on
holidays," he said in a statement published on Twitter by his spokesperson.
Navalny said Russia wanted to be a nation of peace but few people would call it
that now. "Let’s at least not become a nation of frightened silent people. Of
cowards who pretend not to notice the aggressive war against Ukraine unleashed
by our obviously insane tsar," he said. "I am from the USSR. I was born there.
And the main phrase from there - from my childhood - was 'fight for peace'. I
call on everyone to come out on to the streets and fight for peace... Putin is
not Russia."Navalny, the most prominent of Putin's opponents, was jailed last
year after his return from Germany following treatment for what Western
laboratory tests showed was an attempt to poison him with a nerve agent in
Siberia. He said he was sentenced on trumped-up charges. Russia denied carrying
out such an attack and dismisses suggestions that Navalny's treatment was
politically motivated. It describes its actions in Ukraine as a "special
military operation".
Crackdown
Navalny's activist movement had already called for a campaign of civil
disobedience to protest against Russia's invasion, but police have cracked down
on demonstrations. Some 6,840 people have been detained at anti-war protests
since the invasion began on Feb. 24, according to the OVD-Info
protest-monitoring group. Navalny, 45, has been the biggest thorn in the
Kremlin’s side for over a decade, persistently detailing what he says is
high-level corruption and mobilizing crowds of young protesters in a country
where the opposition has no meaningful power. But his appeal to Russians outside
big cities appears limited and the opposition's ability to challenge Putin has
been hampered by the authorities' moves to stifle dissent in the past few years
and by the state's tight grip on the media. Many opposition figures are now in
exile after being designated by the authorities as "foreign agents", a legal
designation used for what authorities say are foreign-funded organizations
engaged in political activity. Opposition unity has often been undermined by
internal policy differences and squabbling among factions, including during mass
protests in 2011-12 that brought Navalny to prominence but faded after a police
crackdown.
Russia Receives Venezuela's 'Strong Support'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
In rare backing for Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Venezuela's
President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday assured Vladimir Putin of his "strong
support" in a telephone call, according to a Kremlin statement. In the call
initiated by Caracas, the Venezuelan leader also condemned "destabilizing
actions of the United States and NATO" and spoke out against a Western campaign
of "lies and disinformation," it said. Dozens of people have been killed and
nearly 680,000 have fled Ukraine since Putin ordered his troops into the country
last week after failing to get guarantees that NATO will not expand its military
alliance eastward, AFP reported. In the call with Maduro, Putin insisted the
objectives of the military assault were to "protect the civilian population" of
the Donbass separatist region and to get Kiev to recognize Russian sovereignty
over Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. It also sought to ensure a "neutral and
non-nuclear" Ukrainian position towards Russia, said the statement. After the
call, Maduro published a message on Twitter with a photograph of him and Putin,
and said he also told the Russian leader Venezuela was "in favor of
understanding and dialogue as a way to preserve peace." Venezuela, along with
Cuba and Nicaragua -- all targets of United States sanctions -- are Latin
American allies of Moscow. The United States and dozens of other countries do
not recognize Maduro's 2018 reelection, which they say was fraudulent.During an
interview in December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov would not
rule out Moscow sending forces to Venezuela or Cuba if diplomacy failed with the
United States over Ukraine.
EU Approves New Sanctions against Belarus over Ukraine
Invasion
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
European Union diplomats have approved new sanctions against Belarus for its
supporting role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the French presidency of the EU
said on Wednesday. EU diplomats approved new sanctions against Belarusian people
who are playing a role in the attacks to Ukraine, the presidency said on
Twitter. Sanctions will also hit "some economic sectors, and in particular
timber, steel and potash," it said in a statement. An EU official said this week
that one aim of the new sanctions on Minsk was to stop exports of any further
Belarusian goods to the EU, on top of those already subject to EU sanctions
imposed after President Alexander Lukashenko crushed protests following
elections in August 2020. "These measures will be published in the Official
Journal of the EU for entry into force," the presidency said in its statement,
without indicating the exact timing of the publication. Some of the sanctions
are expected to close loopholes of existing restrictive measures. The EU is
already banning Belarus' exports of potash, a fertilizer made of potassium, and
oil products. But diplomats said Belarus was still exporting potash to the EU
via Ukraine, and has also boosted its exports to the EU of oil products obtained
from coal.
China Will Not Join Sanctions on Russia, Banking Regulator
Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
China will not join in sanctions on Russia that have been led by the West, the
country's banking regulator said on Wednesday, adding that he believed the
impact of the measures on China would be limited. China, which has refused to
condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has repeatedly criticized what it calls
illegal and unilateral sanctions. "As far as financial sanctions are concerned,
we do not approve of these, especially the unilaterally launched sanctions
because they do not work well and have no legal grounds," Guo Shuqing, chairman
of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, told a news
conference. "We will not participate in such sanctions. We will continue to
maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with relevant parties," he said.
China and Russia have grown increasingly close in recent years, including as
trading partners. Total trade between the two jumped 35.9% last year to a record
$146.9 billion, according to Chinese customs data, with Russia serving as a
major source of oil, gas, coal and agriculture commodities, running a trade
surplus with China. "The impact from the sanctions on China's economy and
financial sector is so far not too significant," Guo added. "Overall they will
not have much impact (on China) even in the future," Guo said, citing the
resilience of China's economy and financial sector.
German Leader Visits Israel as Russia-Ukraine War Rages
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz kicked off a visited to Israel on Wednesday,
briefly leaving Europe as the continent's largest ground war in generations
rages between Russia and Ukraine. Scholz arrived in Israel Tuesday evening and
will return to Germany later Wednesday in a visit — his first to Israel since
becoming German leader — that was planned before the fighting erupted. He toured
Israel's Holocaust memorial Yad Vashem alongside Israeli Prime Minister Naftali
Bennett, The Associated Press said. His visit comes as Russia's assault on
Ukraine continued for a seventh day, and as Western countries have rallied
together against the incursion. The war has prompted historic changes to
Germany's defense policies. The German government said Saturday it will send
anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine — abandoning its
long-held refusal to export weapons to conflict zones in a historic break with
its post-World War II foreign policy. Berlin also announced it is committing 100
billion euros to a special fund for its armed forces, raising defense spending
above 2% of GDP — a measure on which it had long lagged. In the decades
following the Holocaust, in which Nazi Germany killed 6 million Jews, Germany
and Israel have become staunch allies. The countries' Cabinets hold regular
joint sessions, and Germany is Israel's most important trade partner in the
European Union. But Germany, like much of Europe, is at odds with Israel when it
comes to the Palestinian issue. Germany has called for a Palestinian state
alongside Israel and opposes Israel’s settlement activities in the West Bank.
Germany is also among world powers negotiating with Iran over its nuclear
program.
Bitter Experience with US Is Reason for Iran to Push for
Sustainable Nuclear Deal, Says Top Official
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
"Bitter experience" with broken US promises has made it inevitable that Iran
will push to defend its interests by securing a "reliable" nuclear agreement,
its top security official said on Wednesday, according to the Nour-news website.
"Bitter experience with the US breach of promises and European inaction have
made it inevitable to meet the requirements for a reliable, balanced and
sustainable agreement," Ali Shamkhani was quoted as saying at a meeting between
Iranian parliamentarians and the Supreme National Security Council. All parties
involved in the talks say progress has been made toward the restoration of the
pact to curb Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, which
the United States abandoned in 2018. But both Tehran and Washington have said
there are still some significant differences to overcome. Despite progress in
the negotiations, the key sticking point is that Tehran wants the issue of
uranium traces found at several old but undeclared sites in Iran to be dropped
and closed forever, an Iranian official told Reuters.
Satellite Photos Show Iran Had Another Failed Space Launch
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Iran likely suffered another failed launch of a satellite-carrying rocket in
recent days attempting to reinvigorate a program criticized by the West, even as
Tehran faces last-minute negotiations with world powers to save its tattered
nuclear deal in Vienna. Satellite images from Maxar Technologies seen by The
Associated Press show scorch marks at a launch pad at Imam Khomeini Spaceport in
Iran's rural Semnan province on Sunday. A rocket stand on the pad appears
scorched and damaged, with vehicles surrounding it. An object, possibly part of
the gantry, sits near it. Successful launches typically don't damage rocket
gantries because they are lowered prior to takeoff. Iran also usually
immediately trumpets launches that reach space on its state-run television
channels, and it has a history of not acknowledging failed attempts. Separate
images from Planet Labs PBC suggest the attempted launch likely occurred
sometime after Friday. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately
respond to a request for comment, nor did the US military and the White House.
The rocket involved appears to have been Iran's Zuljanah satellite launch
vehicle, said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies
who first noticed the attempted launch with colleagues. The gantry apparently
damaged in the launch resembled another that was previously used in a successful
launch last year of a Zuljanah. It remains unclear what could have caused the
blast. The first two stages of a Zuljanah are solid fuel, but its final stage is
liquid and would have needed to be fueled on the launch pad, Lewis said. “This
just looks like it got interrupted, like something exploded,” Lewis told the AP.
E3 Group Rejects Compromising IAEA Independence amid
Tehran Pressure
London – Vienna – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat
Tehran is demanding the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shut down a
separate inquiry into suspected undeclared Iranian efforts to build a nuclear
weapon and linking finding a political solution to unresolved issues at the
Vienna talks.
At the same time, the E3 group, which includes France, the UK and Germany,
announced that it does not accept derailing the IAEA’s work. Negotiators from
France, Britain and Germany held a lengthy meeting on Tuesday with Iran’s chief
negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani in Vienna, said Stephanie al-Qaq, director of the
Middle East and North Africa Department at the British Foreign & Commonwealth
Office. Kani had returned to Vienna on Monday with strict positions on lifting
the sanctions off Iran, especially those crippling its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
Moreover, Tehran is demanding the removal of a US foreign terrorist organization
(FTO) designation against the IRGC. An informed source told Iran’s
government-funded IRNA that France is playing a negative role in solving
outstanding safeguard issues between Iran and the IAEA, warning that this could
prevent Iran and the P4+1 group of countries from reaching a final agreement
during the negotiations in Vienna on reviving the 2015 deal. “The French are
obstructing the settlement of the remaining safeguards issues between Iran and
the IAEA, and are pursuing a purely political approach in this regard,” the
source said. They noted that Paris has an important role in diverting the IAEA
from its legal-technical approach to political issues, saying, “the settlement
of the remaining safeguards issues with the IAEA is one of the important
prerequisites to reaching an agreement in Vienna.”It is noteworthy that IRNA
later withdrew its source’s statements. Al-Qaq, who is Britain’s lead negotiator
at the talks, defended the IAEA, and said the UK, France, and Germany opposed
interfering in its work. “We will always reject any attempt to compromise IAEA
independence,” she wrote on Twitter.
Washington Rallies its Allies over Syria for 'Ukrainian
Reasons'
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Washington will host on Thursday the envoys of allied nations in the Syrian
file. The meeting will be an opportunity to "test" the allies and the extent the
war in Ukraine will impact Syria given Russia's involvement. Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs with responsibility for the Levant,
Ethan Goldrich will host European Union, Arab and European envoys to discuss
Syria. United Nations envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen will also brief them on the
latest political developments there. The gatherers will hold consultations on
the field developments in Syria, the positions of Arab countries that are open
to normalizing relations with Damascus and the impact the Ukraine war will have
on the country. Washington has notably invited Turkey to the talks. It had
previously invited Ankara for the first such meetings that were held in Brussels
in December. The invite is seen as an attempt by the United States to steer
Turkey away from Russia and ease tensions between it and Ankara given
Washington's support to the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. A western official
said the war in Ukraine demonstrated the extent to which Russia relies
militarily on the Hmeimim air base in Syria for its world strategy. This raises
several questions: Should the fighting in Ukraine turn into a war of attrition,
will Russia still be able to remain as involved as it is now in Syria? What will
happen to the current military coordination between Russia and Israel in Syria?
What will happen to the non-collision agreement between Russia and the US in
Syria?
As it stands, it appears that Moscow and Tel Aviv are committed to the
de-escalation agreement with Israel continuing to carry out raids against
Iranian positions in Syria. The Russian-western escalation in Ukraine has yet to
lead to field tensions in eastern Syria, said the official.
This raises more questions: Will Iran fill in the military void in Syria should
Russia be forced to reduce its presence there? Can Tehran offer more economic
aid to Syria because Russia is preoccupied elsewhere? Can Iran make more
economic gains if its signs a new nuclear deal with the West? Why did Syrian
national security chief Ali Mamlouk fy to Tehran? The war in Ukraine has already
left its mark in Syria with a drop in wheat and fuel imports. Poverty levels in
Syria have reached 90 percent, while 12.4 million people, or 60 percent of the
population, are suffering from food insecurity. The Syrian pound has also
plummeted amid soaring food prices. Thursday's meeting is also set to tackle the
normalization of relations between some Arab countries and Damascus in spite of
the western sanctions against Syria. The EU had held a meeting in February to
discuss Syria, reiterating its previous stances that it refuses to normalize
ties with Damascus, lift sanctions and begin reconstruction before the regime
launches a political transition in the country in line with UN Security Council
resolution 2254. Washington has urged Arab countries, through various diplomatic
channels, against normalizing relations with Damascus and against restoring its
membership at the Arab League. The Biden administration has set its priorities
in Syria: Providing humanitarian aid and working towards early economic
recovery, maintaining its troop deployment in the region east of the Euphrates
River to fight the ISIS terror group, supporting a ceasefire, and remaining
committed to holding parties accountable for war crimes and the use of chemical
weapons. The war in Ukraine will be an opportunity to test these positions. Some
sides have called for keeping the crises in Ukraine and Syria and the Iranian
nuclear file apart, while others view them as interconnected, which may lead to
dealing blows in Syria for "Ukrainian reasons".
Egypt, Iraq Boost Cooperation Through Military
Production
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Egyptian and Iraqi officials held defense talks in Cairo, amid interest in
boosting their cooperation in various fields, along with Jordan. Minister of
State for Military Production Mohamed Ahmed Morsi met with the visiting Iraqi
advisor to the Interior Minister, Lt-Gen Jaafar Falhi, and his accompanying
delegation. The meeting addressed the historically long-standing relations
between the two sides, highlighting the importance of cooperation between
military production companies and the Iraqi authorities. The Egyptian minister
reviewed the economic and structural reforms, despite the difficult
circumstances that his country went through, pointing out that it did not
prevent the government from taking bold measures and decisions. He explained
that the success of these decisions was evident in the past two years, as the
Egyptian economy overcame the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic. The
minister noted that the authorities dealt with the pandemic efficiently.
According to the Egyptian statement, the Iraqi advisor stressed the importance
of Cairo's leading role in the Arab nation, and in confronting terrorism and
maintaining peace and stability in the region. He expressed Baghdad’s aspiration
to boost cooperation with the Ministry of Military Production to meet the needs
of the Iraqi Interior Ministry. The Iraqi delegation visited several companies
affiliated with the Ministry of Military Production, aiming to examine the
industrial, technological, and human capabilities available in light of the
mutual understanding on the necessity of pushing bilateral relations forward in
various fields. The visit also noted the importance of strengthening the
strategic partnership that benefits both sides. Last June, Baghdad hosted a
tripartite summit including Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan, during which they
emphasized the need to enhance cooperation, coordination, and strategic
integration.
Statement on behalf of the Chair of the Freedom Online
Coalition: A call to action on state-sponsored disinformation in Ukraine
March 2, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
As 2022 Chair of the Freedom Online Coalition, Canada leads a coalition of 34
governments united by our belief that the same human rights people enjoy offline
must be protected online.
The unprovoked and unjustifiable attack by the Russian Federation against the
territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of the democratic state of
Ukraine was preceded by a steady outpouring of fabricated claims and unfounded
allegations online by the Russian Federation.
We have since witnessed a continued onslaught of disinformation orchestrated by
the Russian Federation.
At an unprecedented moment in history, when people around the world are turning
to the Internet to connect, learn and consume their news, the Russian
Federation’s coordinated disinformation campaign has conjured false and
misleading narratives intended to corrupt the information environment. This
campaign aims to sow confusion, seed division, and erode trust in democracy. It
ultimately puts lives at risk.
State-sponsored disinformation campaigns undermine peace, prosperity and
individual freedoms, threatening to destabilize the fabric of our rules-based
international system.
A strong democracy relies on access to diverse and reliable sources of news and
information so that members of society can form opinions, hold governments and
individuals to account, and participate in public debate.
The Freedom Online Coalition stands for the protection and promotion of human
rights and fundamental freedoms online and offline.
We stand with the people of Ukraine, reaffirming that they should be able to
participate meaningfully in society online and offline, free from oppressive
practices such as state-sponsored disinformation.
We call for the cessation of the conducting and sponsoring of disinformation
campaigns, and urge all stakeholders to take active steps to address the issue
in a manner that respects human rights, democracy and the rule of law.
We call for the end of Internet shutdowns and the blocking or filtering of
services. We also call for the Russian Federation to refrain from content
restrictions on the Internet that violate international human rights laws.
States must not unduly restrict, moderate or manipulate online content or
disrupt networks to deny users access to information, contrary to their
international obligations.
More than ever, social media platforms are powerful tools of information. They
play a key role in the health of democracies and global stability. Social media
platforms play an important role in the fight against disinformation—in the last
few days, we have seen them make unprecedented and powerful decisions to
restrain the Russian Federation’s attempts to misinform national and
international audiences.
While respecting freedom of expression, Canada calls on platforms to work with
the Freedom Online Coalition and to keep taking every step possible to counter
state-sponsored disinformation, including that propagated by Russia Today and
Sputnik channels online. We offer our continued collaboration to get this done
in a manner guided by respect for human rights and the UN Guiding Principles on
Business and Human Rights.
Together, let’s send a clear message—the world order we have fought hard to
maintain is under attack. Disinformation cannot be enabled, whether through
state media, private media or social media platforms.
We support Ukrainians’ human rights and Internet freedoms, and will work
together to counter state-sponsored disinformation, which puts democracies and
lives at risk.
Endorsed by: Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the
United Kingdom, the United States
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
March 02-03/2022
Five Lessons Learned From Sanctions on Iran for the Ukraine
Crisis
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Behnam Ben TalebluThe National
Interest/March 02/2022
The goal of sanctions should be to impose costs on the Russian economy that
either make Putin’s tactical and strategic objectives too costly to achieve,
change Russia’s overall cost/benefit calculation, weaken its economy, or deter
further aggression.
In the past three months, the Biden administration tried and failed to leverage
the threat of sanctions to prevent a Russian invasion of the Donbas region of
Ukraine. Following a recent order by Russian president Vladimir Putin, Russian
forces attacked eastern Ukraine by air, land, and sea on February 24, with
fighting reaching the capital just two days later. Washington responded with a
tranche of sanctions, promises of greater economic pain, and delivering military
aid to the embattled Ukrainians.
Since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the United States has increasingly relied
on sanctions and other non-kinetic tools as weapons to adjudicate conflicts
around the world. Scholars of sanctions have rightly pointed to the need for
policymakers to better understand the mechanisms that underpin global trade as
well as where and how U.S. sanctions have impacted those mechanisms as economic
forces continue to take center stage in national security debates.
But caution from practitioners and derision from academics notwithstanding, the
Iran sanctions case—both prior to achieving as well as after leaving the 2015
nuclear deal—offers key but underutilized insights into the strengths of U.S.
economic sanctions. Subject to one form of economic penalty or another for four
decades, over the past decade and a half, however, the Islamic Republic was
targeted by an increasingly layered and complex web of sanctions. While Russia
is a qualitatively larger and different target than Iran, the depth, breadth,
and continuity of U.S. sanctions on Iran and related enforcement actions can
still offer lessons to inform the debate over sanctioning Russia as Putin’s war
in Ukraine continues.
The first lesson is that financial sanctions are among the easiest economic
weapons for Washington to use and usually the most painful ones on the target.
In fact, in an October 2021 review of U.S. sanctions programs, the U.S. Treasury
Department cited the freezing out of Iran from the international financial
system as one of the successes of its coercive and punitive economic measures.
Imposing an embargo on large, well-connected, and geopolitically influential
countries such as Russia and Iran, both of which have long land borders, can be
fraught with challenges. Financial sanctions, however, are considerably easier
to employ, affect macro-level trade, and play to the relative advantages the
United States enjoys in the world economy today. These sanctions make it
exceptionally difficult to move trade-generated revenue around that is
denominated in U.S. dollars or euros. After all, if the beating heart of the
interconnected world of banking and finance lies in major Western hubs such as
New York City, then it is the U.S. dollar and the euro that functions as blood
moving throughout its arteries.
Financial sanctions can significantly reduce the accessibility of the target’s
foreign assets, as happened to Iran’s oil export earnings, which was subject to
additional lock-up provisions found in U.S. law. Beyond growing inflationary
forces, as they did in Iran, financial sanctions can also significantly reduce a
target country’s capacity to absorb foreign direct investment, as was proven to
be the case with Russia since it invaded Crimea in 2014. These sanctions
considerably slowed the relative rate of Russian economic growth.
Given that the Russian economy is much more integrated with Western economic
structures than that of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the pain Moscow stands to
suffer under a comprehensive financial sanctions regime would be much greater
than what Tehran felt. Conversely, deeper economic enmeshment means that
political resistance inside the Western bloc against such measures would be much
more robust, as was seen in the debate over removing Russian banks from the
global electronic payments system known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank
Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT.
Borrowing from the model employed against Tehran, U.S. economic pressure should
aim at banning all Russian banks from using the SWIFT system rather than
focusing on a select number of banks to be removed from the platform as was
recently announced. Building on the sanctions against the Central Bank of
Russia, blanket sector-wide prohibitions that employ secondary sanctions—which
put non-U.S. persons and entities to the choice of trade with Russia’s financial
sector or the United States—would also go a long way. Some U.S. senators have
already astutely drawn the parallel between the secondary sanctions’ impact on
Iran and their applicability here.
The second lesson of the Iran sanctions experience is more political, namely
that comprehensive sanctions should be deployed decisively and in one go, not
incrementally. While there is a strategic logic behind graduated escalation, a
resolute and risk-tolerant adversary committed to maintaining, for example, a
nuclear weapons option or an invasion of another nation may perceive the use of
graduated economic sanctions as a signal that Washington is unwilling to use
force to punish or change behavior. Starting low on the sanctions’ scale and
working up means that an adversary may feel that Washington is buying time by
meting out the punishment rather than risking the costs of attempting to deliver
a near knock-out blow up-front.
As a result, Washington should treat the levying of sanctions as an opportunity
to make a positive impression about American resolve by deploying large and
far-reaching sanctions packages against target states early in the crisis. While
some may believe that was the case for President Donald Trump’s “Maximum
Pressure” policy on Iran, the timeline of U.S. sanctions tells a different
story.
Despite campaigning against the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 and 2016, Trump
decertified the agreement in October 2017 and only left it in May 2018, nearly a
year and a half after entering office. The Trump administration then took 180
days to restore all penalties that were waived by the accord, and then used
another six months to push towards removing waivers for the sale of Iranian oil.
During the post-deal period, the United States continued to maintain several
other sanctions waivers for regional energy sales, port access/investment, and
civil nuclear cooperation. Starting in mid-2019 until it left office, the
administration only then began refining and recalibrating the pressure on Iran.
This means peak maximum pressure sanctions on the Islamic Republic were around
for just under a year and a half.
Course-correcting from that experience, sanctions are likely to have their
greatest effect when the shock introduced into the target state’s economy is
large, sudden, and sustained over time. Incremental and conditional sanctions
that contain carve-outs, multiple waivers, and lengthy wind-down periods to end
foreign contracts absorb the shock factor of these penalties on the country and
its currency. They also run the political clock on an administration that seeks
to enforce these penalties. Concurrently, they provide time for the target state
to adjust and begin to develop front companies and sanctions-busting networks.
If Washington is committed to using economic sanctions to impose costs and
change behavior, concomitant with the swift implementation of comprehensive
sanctions, it should clarify the precise concessions and conditions under which
its penalties would be lifted.
Building on that point, the third major lesson from the Iran sanctions era is
that sanctions and any kind of economic pressure must be continuously assessed,
maintained, and improved to be effective. While this may appear at odds with the
previous point, continuous refinement is not akin to defaulting to a strategy of
incremental escalation. Instead, it involves a habitual refinement of an
originally broad sanctions program that held back little when initially
deployed. Beyond that, continuous calibration and refinement of sanctions is
needed because target states have both agency and an incentive to find
countermeasures to circumvent sanctions using every tool available. If
Washington is serious about the sanctions option against Putin, it must devote
assets and intelligence upfront to monitor the impact on the marketplace and
battlefield, as well as what Russia is doing to offset these costs.
This phenomenon is but one reason why sanctions programs have traditionally been
likened to a game of “whack-a-mole.” Like any other foreign policy tool,
sanctions could also have unintended consequences that require close monitoring
to address. One early example was the relationship between sanctions and Iran’s
move from being a gasoline importer in 2009, to being “self-sufficient” in the
production of such refined petroleum products a decade later.
Much later in the Iran experience, Washington had to broaden out its oil-based
sanctions to account for how Iran diversified its economy to grow non-oil export
earnings that came from places like the growing petrochemical sector. By 2020,
petrochemicals made up about one-third of Tehran’s non-oil exports, and were
such a critical component of the regional economy that even saw U.S. partners in
the ranks of major purchasers.
Adversaries, like markets and industries, are not static. In response to the
Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy, Tehran relied on a foreign
exchange platform under the control of the Central Bank of Iran called NIMA to
regulate the exchange of foreign currency among importers and exporters without
the foreign currency moving through Iran’s financial system or accounts owned or
controlled by the sanctioned Central Bank of Iran. This allowed the money to be
transferred without touching the formal financial system, akin to a “Hawala”
system but monitored directly by the Central Bank. This innovation installed a
central monitoring system in the decentralized traditional Hawala system and
allowed Tehran to alleviate its hard currency problem through more efficient use
of export revenues by the private sector to fund imports.
Given how far U.S. adversaries are willing to go to bust sanctions, creativity
should be treated as an element of national power and more welcome in the debate
over enforcement measures. Bold actions, such as the seizure of Iranian tankers
and forfeiture of their illicit oil cargos were a late but powerful component of
the U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran. The further the United States is
willing to go to enforce its penalties, the greater the transaction cost for the
target state to continue its countermeasures. Psychologically, such moves signal
that enforcement can be just as flexible and innovative as circumvention, thus
aiming to deter future evasion efforts.
All else equal, the fourth lesson from the Iran experience is that multilateral
sanctions are not necessarily more effective than unilateral ones. While this
lesson does not aim to downplay the political and diplomatic costs of
unilateralism and seemingly occasional irreverence for diplomacy out of
Washington, it does aim to right-size such concerns given the risk-aversion of
most large multinational enterprises and banks, the growth and importance of the
compliance sector, the increasing use of U.S. sanctions, the position of the
dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and other factors highlighting the
outsized influence of the United States in the global financial system. While
multilateral sanctions regimes can be treated as coalitions based around a
“price-floor” interpretation of a perceived threat and what to do about it,
reaching this consensus through international organizations like the UN Security
Council or bilaterally with the European Union can be a lengthy and complex
process that waters down sanctions and buy time for the adversary.
In the case of Iran, the unilateral sanctions imposed by the Trump
administration were not less effective than the multilateral sanctions signed
into law or imposed by President Barack Obama, which followed several rounds of
UNSC sanctions. In fact, the takeaway for the 2018-2020 experience is that
unilateral sanctions could be just as effective, if not more effective, and in
record time. This is despite the skepticism of many U.S. policymakers and
sanctions practitioners, as well as the efforts of the European Union to bypass
U.S. sanctions. European governments went so far as to create a Special Purpose
Vehicle for such trade, to no avail. When push came to shove, European banks and
businesses broadly complied with U.S. sanctions regulations much to the chagrin
and policy views of their own national governments.
In the case of Russia, European resistance against sanctioning Moscow had been
stronger and better organized. But with Putin’s war continuing, considerable
cracks have formed, and some European nations are reversing course by offering
military aid, pausing contracts, and supporting sanctions. Rather than hide
behind early European foot-dragging, as some former administration officials
have criticized, now is the time for the Biden administration to lead on
sanctions efforts, taking a page from the U.S. playbook on Iran and SWIFT from
2018.
There are reportedly even areas where Washington may be able to offset the
political cost of any unilateral economic measures by supporting multilateral
diplomatic measures that some of its allies already have underway. One example
is the Canadian and European decision to close their airspace to Russian planes.
As time passes and if Russia’s military operations succeed, as a result of
geographical proximity, energy dependence, and pressure from varied economic
interest groups, European countries may be more inclined to pump the brakes on
sanctioning Russia. It is crucial for Washington to remember that should these
governments pull a U-turn, it can still influence the behavior of European
companies despite the directives of their governments.
Last but not least, is a bureaucratic lesson. Given the centrality of sanctions
to U.S. national security, it is imperative that Washington work to support and
expand its financial warfare capabilities to include fully staffing and funding
elements in the Department of the Treasury including but not limited to the
Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. By way of example, the enacted
budget for that office in fiscal year 2021 was $175 million, a figure dwarfed by
the country’s $777 billion military budget. As Washington’s reliance on
sanctions and related tools expands, its economic warfare headquarters should
similarly expand and modernize to make sure the programs they oversee are fully
serviced. Sanctions can never replace the U.S. military’s function in deterring
foreign adversaries or the State Department in supporting diplomatic efforts,
but they are an important, in-demand, and multipurpose foreign policy tool which
complements other sources of American power.
To be clear, sanctions alone are unlikely to fully resolve the Ukraine crisis.
But this does not imply a vindication of the argument made by sanctions skeptics
in the Iranian, Russian, or broader contexts. At present, the goal of sanctions
should be to impose costs on the Russian economy that either make Putin’s
tactical and strategic objectives too costly to achieve, change Russia’s overall
cost/benefit calculation, weaken its economy, and deter further aggression.
These sanctions can support, not replace, broader American policy goals related
to countering Russia, supporting NATO, as well as send a message to a wide range
of actors about American resolve and economic power.
Not holding back on enforcement of sanctions against the Central Bank, pushing
for a full removal of Russian financial institutions from SWIFT, imposing
blanket sanctions on Russia’s key economic sectors, and exploring ways to deal
with cutting off the Russian energy trade are likely to be the most effective
coercive and punitive tools Washington has in its arsenal of economic statecraft
that need not wait for a new multilateral consensus. The Iran case has proved at
least that.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) where Behnam Ben Taleblu is a Senior Fellow. They both
contribute to FDD’s Iran Program, Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP),
and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). The views expressed are their
own.
What the West should do now to help Ukrainians on the
battlefield
Ryan Brobst/Bradley Bowman/John Hardie/Jack Sullivan/Defense News/March 02/2022
As Russian President Vladimir Putin escalates his invasion designed to topple
Ukraine’s democratically elected government, Kyiv is pleading for as many
anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons as possible. While the Biden administration
on Saturday approved additional military assistance for Ukraine, there is more
the United States and its NATO allies must do — and fast.
That should include expediting and expanding existing shipments of weapons,
focusing on what Ukrainian forces need most and what can be delivered quickly.
NATO members should not stop there, however. The United States should work with
Kyiv to open multiple supply lines to Ukraine to facilitate the delivery of
weapons and other supplies, while providing the Ukrainian military with
actionable intelligence it can use to target invading Russian forces. To get
ahead of the evolving conflict, the United States and its allies should also
focus on getting Ukrainians the tools they will need for urban warfare against
occupying Russian forces.
As we watch this tragedy unfold in Ukraine, the bad news is the Biden
administration, Ukraine, and NATO allies were unable to deter a Russian
invasion. The good news is Ukrainians are fighting hard and Western weapons are
helping them defend their country.
U.S.-made Javelin and UK-made NLAW anti-tank missiles have proven deadly against
Russian ground vehicles. Ukrainian forces defended themselves in 2014 with only
“RPGs and it was difficult to destroy T-72 [tanks],” a Ukrainian military
official reportedly said. Now, thanks to Western weapons, “it’s not a problem.”
The success of these weapons is encouraging, but they will be expended and lost
as combat continues. Some experts suggest the Ukrainian Army will start to run
out of ammunition in a week and may run out of Stinger missiles and Javelin
anti-tank missiles before then. Russia has not yet committed its full military
might, so the Ukrainians will need all the anti-tank weapons we can send.
We should send all the small arms, grenade and rocket launchers, ammunition,
night vision/thermal imaging equipment, rations, medical supplies, and
communication devices the Ukrainian resistance needs to operate effectively and
communicate securely in the brutal urban warfare likely to become more prevalent
in the coming days. Small drones for conducting intelligence, surveillance, and
even attack in urban fighting would be helpful, too.
However, delivering the weapons is more complex than deciding what to send. With
aid flowing from so many countries around the world, the U.S. military should
use its unmatched logistics capabilities to coordinate supply efforts.
A senior U.S. defense official said Monday there is no single unified body
coordinating aid. In addition to shoring up NATO’s eastern flank, this should be
a top priority for U.S. European Command. This materiel should continue to be
delivered via Poland, but NATO should also work to open supply lines from
Slovakia and Romania, as Hungary has disappointingly refused to allow lethal
weapons to transit its territory.
It would be unwise to presume Moscow will not try to interdict weapons shipments
to Ukraine once they arrive. We should assume Russian agents on the ground and
Russian ISR assets are closely monitoring the border crossings into Ukraine.
Additional supply routes will enable faster delivery and help prevent
bottlenecks at the border. Moreover, having multiple routes will reduce the risk
of interdiction, since a single supply corridor would be more vulnerable to
Russian strike assets.
NATO-operated NASAMS, SAMP/T, and Patriot air defense systems should be
redeployed on NATO soil near the distribution points to deter Russian
interference. The United States could transfer to Ukraine Avenger and M-SHORAD
mobile systems to escort the shipments once in Ukraine.
To bolster Ukrainian defensive efforts, the United States and its allies should
also provide Ukraine’s forces with real-time, actionable battlefield
intelligence. The EU will soon begin sharing satellite intelligence with Ukraine
and should prioritize timely delivery of the information so Ukrainian forces can
act on it. This should include advance warning of major Russian military
movements along with targeting information focused on Russian ground, air, and
naval assets operating within Ukrainian territory or conducting attacks on
Ukraine from the Black Sea.
Providing intelligence to Ukraine entails a number of practical challenges.
Senior U.S. defense officials have stated the Pentagon has only limited
visibility into events on the ground because U.S. planes or drones flying above
Ukraine have departed.
However, U.S. assets can still obtain some intelligence that should be shared
with the Ukrainian military whenever possible. Russian attacks along multiple
axes complicate Ukrainian defense planning and mean better intelligence about
their advances can be an exceptional asset for Kyiv.
Airborne assaults have played a prominent role in the war. If U.S. intelligence
assets can detect future assaults, prior warning will allow the Ukrainian
military to avoid surprises, better defend itself and inflict greater damage on
invading forces.
At sea, U.S. air and space assets can track Russian ships and share this
information with Ukraine in near real-time. Intelligence sharing should have two
priorities. First, pass Ukraine intelligence on any amphibious landings Russia
may be maneuvering to conduct. Second, share the location of Russian warships
operating within range of Ukrainian’s limited ground- or air-based anti-ship
missiles. Thus far, the U.S. has denied doing so. The Biden administration
should reverse this policy and share this information with Ukraine using
preexisting intelligence channels or new ones if necessary.
The bravery of Ukrainians in defending their homes is deeply inspiring, but
American and European leaders should not be lulled into a sense of complacency.
The conflict, unfortunately, is just getting started, and Russian forces will
send reinforcements and use more devastating tactics. We should sprint faster
than ever to help Ukraine.
*Ryan Brobst is a research analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power
at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Bradley Bowman is
senior director. John Hardie is a research analyst at FDD, where Jack Sullivan
is a research associate. Follow Bradley on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
Russia, Ukraine and the West’s grand delusion of freedom
Clifford D. May /Washington Times/March 02/2022
Liberty must be defended or surrendered -- there's no third option
Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging a war of imperial conquest. That’s
despicable but, from a historical perspective, hardly novel. Genghis Khan,
Alexander the Great, Tamerlane and Attila the Hun are among those who did not
think: “Maybe I should give peace a chance!” Mr. Putin, I submit, sees the world
similarly.
Why do elites in America and Europe find this reality elusive? Because they
cling to the grand delusion that there is an “international community,” and that
it believes “No one wins wars!” and that everyone seeks “diplomatic solutions”
to “address legitimate grievances” while rejecting armed conflicts in pursuit of
territory, resources, and power.
A memorable example: In 2014, Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine for the first time.
Then-Secretary of State John Kerry exclaimed: “You just don’t in the 21st
century behave in 19th-century fashion by invading another country on a
completely trumped-up pretext!” I imagine Mr. Putin was amused, though perhaps
not as much as when he heard Mr. Kerry last week express concerns about the
“massive emissions consequences” that might result from the current Russian war
on Ukrainians. As White House climate envoy, Mr. Kerry reached out to the neo-czar:
“I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we
need to do for the climate.”
What Mr. Putin believes he needs to do is rather different, and an odd coalition
is attempting to ensure his success. On the left, Rep. Ilhan Omar opposes
sanctions that could “devastate the Russian economy.” The Democratic Socialists
of America has called for the U.S. “to withdraw from NATO and to end the
imperialist expansionism that set the stage for this conflict.” Code Pink is
demanding that “not a single bullet or gun be sent to Ukraine!”
More than a few voices on the right echo these views. I am at a loss to
understand how anyone wearing a Make-America-Great-Again cap can be indifferent
when it comes to Mr. Putin whose goal is to make America irrelevant — an
impotent, hapless, has-been superpower.
Take J.D. Vance, author “Hillbilly Elegy” (a marvelous book!) and a Republican
candidate for the U.S. Senate in Ohio. Last week, he made an argument that is
emotionally compelling and geo-strategically incoherent. “I don’t really care
what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” he said. “I’m sick of Joe Biden
focusing on the border of a country I don’t care about while he lets the border
of his own country become a total war zone.”
Which is the same as saying: “The current administration’s policies at home are
a disaster and I want a foreign policy to match!”
A more thoughtful faction on the right argues that we should let Mr. Putin have
his way in Ukraine — and in Europe more broadly, and in the Middle East and
Latin America, too — so we can “pivot to Asia” and concentrate on the threat
China’s rulers pose.
Among the problems with that: The rulers of Russia and China — along with the
rulers of Iran and North Korea, as well as the rulers of Venezuela and Cuba —
have been forming what you might call an Axis of Authoritarians. Their common
goal: weakening and diminishing America.
You can be sure they chuckled when former President Barack Obama, in 2015,
warned Mr. Putin that if he intervened militarily in Syria, he would end up
“stuck in a quagmire.” Instead, Mr. Putin propped up Syria’s dynastic dictator
(at a cost of more than 500,000 Syrian lives), expanded his Mediterranean naval
facility in Tartus, and restored Russia as a major force in the Middle East.
They were reassured when America and its allies gazed with bovine passivity as
Chinese Communists, violating their clear commitments, stripped the people of
Hong Kong of their freedoms, all the while building militarized islands in the
South China Sea.
They were even more encouraged by America’s chaotic and humiliating capitulation
to the Taliban — and, by implication, to its ally, al Qaeda — in Afghanistan
last year.
They’re now expecting American diplomats in Vienna to surrender to the much
shrewder negotiators from Tehran.
If Mr. Putin succeeds in swallowing Ukraine, he will become more powerful, which
will make him more valuable to Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose goal is to
conquer Taiwan and become hegemon of Asia — a steppingstone toward displacing
America as global leader.
Similarly, Mr. Putin will want to move on to become the dominant European power.
He is apt to think: “Since the U.S. is prioritizing the threat from Beijing,
wouldn’t this be a convenient time to strike a blow against a NATO member?”
Long-term, the West needs to learn hard lessons and change failed policies.
Short-term, we need to do whatever we can to support Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy who, when offered a chance to flee, tweeted: “The fight is
here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
As rapidly as possible, we should provide Ukrainians with Stingers, Javelins,
TOW missiles — whatever they need to defend themselves. And we should do
everything we can to bring Russia’s economy to a grinding halt until such time
as Mr. Putin’s troops go home.
Final point: There is inspiration to be found in the streets of Kyiv and the
frozen fields of Donbas where a brave nation fights against all odds for
independence, sovereignty and the right to choose its leaders.
We can stand up to totalitarianism and defend freedom as we did in World War II
and the Cold War. Or we can leave to our children a world in which evil empires
expand and imperial conquerors enjoy what George Orwell called “the intoxication
of power … the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is
helpless.” There is no third option.
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies and a columnist for the Washington Times.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/1/russia-ukraine-and-the-wests-grand-delusion-of-fre/
Biden's 'Capitulation' To Iran Endangers Arabs, Middle East, U.S.
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
"The parties of the international community that are negotiating with Iran....
must realize that the extremist Iranian regime has not, and will not, abide by
international laws, regulations and agreements, even if it swore and signed or
pledged to abide by and implement them. The Iranian regime was founded on the...
Khomeini ideology that adopts terrorism and believes in exporting chaos and
destruction." — Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, Saudi political analyst and academic,
Al-Riyadh, February 23, 2022.
The Khomeini ideology... has already brought destruction to Arab countries,
including Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria. — Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, Al-Riyadh,
February 23, 2022.
"Although the Biden administration pledged upon its arrival at the White House
that it would not be a third term for former President Barack Obama, it is
following him step by step. This is evident in the Biden administration's
position on the Iranian nuclear issue. This position seems to be weak, hesitant
and subject to Iranian blackmail.... In the end, the countries of the region
will not accept being hostage to Iranian nuclear technology." — Rami Al-Khalifa
Al-Ali, Syrian political analyst, Okaz, February 23, 2022.
The most dangerous point is that the US administration "has ignored other issues
in which Iran poses a threat to the region, including the ballistic missile
program" as well as the terrorist militias. — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Okaz,
February 23, 2022.
"These militias are Iran's arm in the region and they intend to spread chaos and
destruction wherever they are. The [new] agreement is expected to unleash Iran's
hand in the region, as what happened during the Obama era, which led to an
increase in violence in the region." — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Okaz, February
23, 2022.
"It is not surprising that Vladimir Putin went to the end in Ukraine after
discovering that he faced an American administration that could not be more than
an extension of Barack Obama's administration. The Biden administration can yell
and threaten as much as it wants." — Kheirallah Kheirallah, veteran Lebanese
journalist, Al-Arab, February 16, 2022.
In [Fahs's] view, not reaching any agreement would be better than reaching a new
one. "The lack of agreement will keep the conflict with Iran confined to the
great powers." — Mustafa Fahs, Lebanese editor, Asharq Al-Awsat, February 25,
2022.
"Biden has decided to acquiesce in Iran... to yield to its expansionist project,
which ultimately aims to impose Iranian hegemony in the region." — Sayed Zahra,
deputy editor of the Bahraini newspaper Akhbar Al-Khaleej, February 25, 2022.
"In other words, it means that Iran and its proxies feel at liberty to do
whatever they want. We should expect that reaching a new agreement with Iran
will mark the inauguration of a new era of escalation of the Iranian terrorist
threat in the region. The Arab countries must prepare for this." — Sayed Zahra,
Akhbar Al-Khaleej, February 25, 2022.
Most disturbing is what a growing number of Arabs are trying to warn the Biden
administration about: that striking a new deal with Iran would not only embolden
Iran and its terrorist proxies and endanger America's friends in the Middle
East, but create calamitous turmoil, including a nuclear arms race "on steroids"
in the region -- all of which would justifiably be blamed on the Biden
administration. It appears that the Biden administration has chosen to ignore
the likelihood of this terrifying scenario. It is a decision that is causing
irreparable damage to America's credibility in the Middle East.
Moreover, as Arab analysts are saying in no uncertain terms, America and its
Western allies are themselves in the sights of the mullahs in Tehran.
Worse, as with Biden's generosity to Russian President Vladimir Putin in
extending the new START treaty and gifting him the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline (which
yesterday filed for bankruptcy), it will not buy goodwill. It will only appear
as weakness and accelerate aggression against the West.
Arabs are warning that the Biden administration's appeasement of the extremist
and terrorist regime in Tehran would allow Iran's proxy militias to continue
their attacks on America's Arab allies and massively destabilize the Middle
East. (Image source: iStock)
As the world's attention is focused on the Russia-Ukraine war, the Arabs are
continuing to express fear about the possibility that the Biden administration
and the world powers will revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
The Arabs are warning that the appeasement of the extremist and terrorist regime
in Tehran would allow Iran's proxy militias to continue their attacks on
America's Arab allies and massively destabilize the Middle East. Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas,
a prominent Saudi political analyst and academic, wrote on February 23:
"The parties of the international community that are negotiating with Iran,
especially the P5+1 (the US and the other permanent members of the UN Security
Council: China, France, Russia, Britain, and Germany), must realize that the
extremist Iranian regime has not, and will not, abide by international laws,
regulations and agreements, even if it swore and signed or pledged to abide by
and implement them... The Iranian regime was founded on the [former supreme
leader of Iran Ayatollah] Khomeini ideology that adopts terrorism and believes
in exporting chaos and destruction."
Nahhas cautions that if Iran obtains a nuclear agreement that prioritizes
economic, commercial and investment interests at the expense of the security
interests of the Arab countries, "the destructive capabilities and extremism of
the Khomeini ideology that exported terrorism, chaos, havoc and destruction to
the countries of the region will be enhanced."
The Khomeini ideology, Nahhas pointed out, has already brought destruction to
Arab countries, including Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Those who signed the 2015 nuclear deal made "major mistakes," the Saudi
political analyst argued.
"They agreed to sit with a regime that explicitly declares its support and
sponsorship of terrorism and extremism; they agreed to enter into secret talks
[with Iran] without the knowledge of the countries that are negatively affected
by the terrorism and extremism of the Iranian regime; and they signed an
agreement that did not take into account the interests and concerns of the
countries and peoples of the region."
By reaching that deal with Iran, Nahhas added, the US and the other world powers
"implicitly accepted extremist political regimes and terrorist and destructive
practices. They also accepted Iranian intervention in the internal affairs of
other countries, the development of destructive weapons, and acquiring nuclear
technology for military purposes."
Nahhas said that he believes that the talks in Vienna between Iran and the US
and the world powers will lead to a deal that is worse than the previous
agreement.
"The P5+1 group is once again moving towards rewarding the extremist Iranian
regime for its terrorist and destructive policies, practices and behavior...
This group works without realizing the direct harm to global security, peace and
stability. This group needs to take into account the great danger that the
extremist Iranian regime poses to global security, peace and stability. It needs
to be aware of the great suffering caused by the Iranian regime's terrorism and
extremism. It is necessary for this group to listen to the fears and concerns of
the countries of the region about the continuation of Iran's nuclear program and
to actually learn about the suffering of the peoples affected by the terrorism
and extremism of the Iranian regime. The ambitions and policies of the extremist
Iranian regime will cause further destabilization of security, peace and global
stability if it is given more privileges in the nuclear and armaments fields. If
the group does not acknowledge these facts, it will notice them when Iranian
terrorism and extremism reach the countries (that are currently negotiating with
Iran). The [Iranian] terrorism and extremism, however, will be more violent and
destructive, given the nuclear and armaments benefits it will obtain from a new
agreement.
Alarmed by reports of an imminent deal with Iran, Syrian political analyst and
commentator Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali asserted on February 23 that the world will
be less safe after the signing of a new nuclear accord with the mullahs in
Tehran. Al-Ali wrote:
"Although the Biden administration pledged upon its arrival at the White House
that it would not be a third term for former President Barack Obama, it is
following him step by step... This is evident in the Biden administration's
position on the Iranian nuclear issue. This position seems to be weak, hesitant
and subject to Iranian blackmail."
Al-Ali pointed out that the Arabs have repeatedly called to make the Middle East
free of weapons of mass destruction.
"But is the nuclear agreement pushing the region a step in this direction? The
answer is no. On the contrary, the new agreement will increase tension and push
for an arms race and perhaps a race towards possessing nuclear technology. In
the end, the countries of the region will not accept being hostage to Iranian
nuclear technology."
The Syrian analyst said that according to various leaks, the emerging agreement
with Iran does not address the "negative points" of the 2015 agreement that
prompted then US President Donald Trump to withdraw from deal in 2018.
"The duration of the agreement is still a negative point," Al-Ali pointed out.
"The question is, what will happen after the end of this period? Will Iran be
free to reach the nuclear bomb?"
The most dangerous point, he warned, is that the US administration "has ignored
other issues in which Iran poses a threat to the region, including the ballistic
missile program."
"This program is dangerous in two respects. The first is the ability of Iranian
missiles to carry nuclear warheads, and therefore ballistic missiles are part of
the nuclear program, and there is no sense in any arrangements that do not take
into account placing restrictions on it... The second issue is the spread of
these ballistic missiles in the region and the provision of them to terrorist
organizations. These missiles are now posing a threat to international trade
routes, as well as to neighboring countries that are supposed to be allies of
Washington."
Al-Ali also noted that the negotiations held in Vienna did not address Iran's
support for terrorist militias.
"This is not a secondary or marginal issue, but it rather directly affects
security and stability in the entire region... These militias are Iran's arm in
the region and they intend to spread chaos and destruction wherever they are.
The [new] agreement is expected to unleash Iran's hand in the region, as what
happened during the Obama era, which led to an increase in violence in the
region."
The US and its Western allies, Al-Ali said, are mistaken if they think that a
new agreement will achieve progress in the region.
"Instead, we expect an increase in the pace of terrorist acts and the growth of
conflicts in the region... The threat will reach Western societies. If an
agreement is reached with Iran, this will be similar to the Munich Agreement,
which released Hitler's hand in Europe and wreaked unprecedented havoc on
Europe."
Veteran Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah wrote on February 16 that the
Biden administration seems ready to cave in to the mullahs in Tehran.
The Ukraine crisis, Kheirallah said, "exposed the weakness of the Biden
administration, which appears ready to submit to the Islamic Republic."
"It is not surprising that Vladimir Putin went to the end in Ukraine after
discovering that he faced an American administration that could not be more than
an extension of Barack Obama's administration. The Biden administration can yell
and threaten as much as it wants."
The US, according to the Lebanese journalist, has revealed its "impotence"
everywhere in the world.
"Perhaps the most important thing Putin has noticed is that US allies do not
trust it... The Russian president must have paused for a long time on American
behavior towards what is happening in Yemen and Iran's aggression towards the
Arab Gulf states. Whoever discovers all these American weaknesses can only work
to benefit from them. There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin is a shrewd man who
has manipulated Obama and is currently playing Biden."
Dr. Huda Raouf, an Egyptian political science teacher and researcher in regional
and Iranian affairs, wrote that the Iranian regime has understood that the
Middle East is no longer a priority for the Biden administration's policy. The
Biden administration, according to Raouf, limited its view of the threats to
American security to only China and Russia.
"With the sudden and uncalculated withdrawal from Afghanistan, we find that the
Middle East is no longer a priority for American policy, which is what Iran
finally understood... By looking at the developments of the Vienna talks, we
find that the US intends to reach a reduced copy of the original 2015 agreement.
So far, the Biden administration does not appear to have a comprehensive
approach towards Iran. As long as the US does not negotiate with Iran about its
regional behavior, it may have to build a framework with its partners and allies
on their concerns regarding Iran even after the nuclear deal is revived."
Raouf noted that Iran feels that it is not being held accountable for its
meddling in the internal affairs of the Arab countries.
"So far, it seems to Tehran that there is really no price to pay, as it has not
been pressured about its actions in Iraq and its involvement in the wars in
Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. These are the most important challenges that may face
the region, and there must be a mechanism for solving them. Reviving the [Iran
nuclear] agreement will not change Iran's regional positions, including its
support for groups such as Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Assad regime
in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen."
Lebanese editor and political activist Mustafa Fahs also expressed concern over
the impending agreement. In his view, not reaching any agreement would be better
than reaching a new one.
"The [upcoming] agreement seems to be a new factor of tension in the region, and
not a factor of stability... The neighboring countries, especially the Arab Gulf
states, cannot accept a nuclear agreement without restrictions on Iran's
ballistic project and its regional influence, as fears that the agreement will
be confined to the nuclear issue will lead to an escalation of regional tensions
and push Tehran to invest more in its foreign projects."
In such a scenario, Fahs said, the lack of an agreement would be less harmful
than reaching a new one.
"The lack of agreement will keep the conflict with Iran confined to the great
powers," he added. The lack of agreement may also suit Tehran if it refuses to
back down from some of its basic demands. The lack of agreement removes the
specter of a confrontation [between Iran and the US]. The proposed agreement
will open the door wide to crises."
Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Bahraini Akhbar Al-Khaleej newspaper, also
asked whether US President Joe Biden has decided to "acquiesce" to Iran.
"Any follower of developments and current events and the positions and policies
of the Biden administration will inevitably arrive at the fundamental fact that
Biden has decided to acquiesce in Iran; he has decided to yield to its
expansionist project, which ultimately aims to impose Iranian hegemony in the
region...
"This project is linked to the terrorist and subversive role played by Iran and
the forces, militias and groups affiliated with it in the Arab countries,
especially Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Through these terrorist forces and groups,
Iran represents a direct threat to the security and stability of Arab countries.
It is sufficient for us to see terrorist attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates by the Houthis [Iran-backed terrorist militia in Yemen]. This is
the danger facing the Arab countries. What is important is that the issue of
Iran's terrorist role in the region and the danger of its ballistic missiles is
not at all on the table in the negotiations and does not receive any serious
attention from America and other countries participating in the negotiations."
Zahra noted that the Gulf states had previously demanded to be partners in the
negotiations, but their request was ignored by the US and the world powers.
"This simply means that there is an undeclared American message to Iran that the
issue of Tehran's role in the region is not of much concern to Americans... In
other words, it means that Iran and its proxies feel at liberty to do whatever
they want. It is clear that the US administration has decided to succumb to the
reality of Iranian being a nuclear power. It is clear that the US administration
no longer cares much about the destructive terrorist role Iran is playing in the
region and the capabilities it possesses that allow it to threaten Arab
countries through its agents. We should expect that reaching a new agreement
with Iran will mark the inauguration of a new era of escalation of the Iranian
terrorist threat in the region. The Arab countries must prepare for this."
Clearly, many in the Arab world are aware of the dangers that derive from the
Biden administration's anemic attitude towards Iran. These Arabs have alerted
the world to the fact that they feel mortally threatened by Biden's perceived
capitulation to the mullahs in Tehran and the destabilizing consequences for the
region.
Most disturbing is what a growing number of Arabs are trying to warn the Biden
administration about: that striking a new deal with Iran would not only embolden
Iran and its terrorist proxies and endanger America's friends in the Middle
East, but create calamitous turmoil, including a nuclear arms race "on steroids"
in the region -- all of which would justifiably be blamed on the Biden
administration. It appears that the Biden administration has chosen to ignore
the likelihood of this terrifying scenario. It is a decision that is causing
irreparable damage to America's credibility in the Middle East.
Moreover, as Arab analysts are saying in no uncertain terms, America and its
Western allies are themselves in the sights of the mullahs in Tehran.
Worse, as with Biden's generosity to Russian President Vladimir Putin in
extending the new START treaty and gifting him the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (which
yesterday filed for bankruptcy), it will not buy goodwill. It will only appear
as weakness and accelerate aggression against the West.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Ukraine Flies the Flag for a More Assertive Europe
Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg/March 02/2022
The yellow and blue of Ukraine’s flag, which was banned during the Soviet era,
has become a powerful global symbol after Russia’s invasion. It’s been beamed
onto landmarks from New York to Sarajevo, splashed across social media, and
waved during anti-war protests around the world.
It has also done a lot to bind members of the European Union and the NATO
alliance together, in a moment of welcome geopolitical solidarity after a
pandemic that hardened borders and national interests. Sanctions are piling up
against Russia, refugees are being taken in, business and political ties are
being cut, and financial and military support for Ukraine is flowing.
As Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy heaps pressure on Europe to be more
assertive, Russian President Vladimir Putin is triggering the kind of fear that
smashes long-held taboos. The EU is supplying arms to a country at war for the
first time in its history, using a financial envelope whose name — the “Peace
Facility” — says it all. It’s not often that security takes priority over
economic expediency. The union is waking up to a new normal of “permanent
instability,” according to the German Marshall Fund’s Bruno Lete.
Despite MLB Lockout, Players Across Sports Are Gaining More Power
And as the balance of European power swings East — where Baltic states feel
emboldened after warning for years of Putin’s belligerence but also vulnerable
to conflict at their doorstep — Kyiv is reiterating demands for the ultimate
prize: Membership in the EU club. Fed up with knocking politely at the door,
Zelenskiy is giving it a kick. “Europe must give Ukraine everything it asks
for,” Latvia’s defense minister wrote in a Financial Times op-ed, citing
Ukraine’s aspirations to join EU and also NATO.
Obviously, if there’s a time to dream big, it’s now. It is perhaps easier to
visualize the EU’s flag one day billowing next to Ukraine’s than it is NATO’s,
described by a former head of the alliance as a hell-freezing-over scenario.
Some symbolic recognition of Kyiv’s European aspirations would be a worthy
accompaniment of more funding and deeper ties — especially if it adds to
diplomatic pressure on Putin.
But amid the idealism, there still needs to be realism: Not every taboo is going
to be broken.
EU enlargement is not just a bureaucratic paper-push but a preciously guarded
power that has been as divisive a topic as defense — not least after the
departure of the UK and worries over democratic backsliding in the East.
Ukraine’s 43 million citizens and commodities-focused economy would take years,
if not decades, to integrate. Even as European Commission President Ursula von
der Leyen trumpeted that Ukraine was “one of us,” European Council President
Charles Michel cautioned of “differing” views on the issue.
Nor is it obvious that the Europeans have fully worked out what kind of defense
they want. There has been a lack of political will, concrete budget commitments
and an inability of 27 countries to define their most pressing threats. The EU
facility financing weapons for Ukraine is an off-budget, inter-governmental tool
that won’t require any internal arm-twisting. We are still at the easiest point
of the turnaround — the beginning.
Even without a full-fledged vision of defense, more spending seems inevitable.
Defense company shares are rising, with BAE Systems and Thales up around 25%
this month as achieving the symbolic level of 2% of GDP would see Germany alone
spend an extra $18 billion, according to Jefferies analysts. Even if Sciences
Po’s Julien Theron notes that the 2% figure is symbolic rather than a fulfilment
of NATO’s wish list, an awakening is taking place.
And the willingness of the EU to confront its trade and energy ties to Russia is
an important signal for a union with global dependencies that leave it
vulnerable — the recent launch of a screening tool to monitor foreign investment
from powers like China is slowly gaining traction.
The real limits to a more assertive EU will ultimately be set by governments and
voters. What seems unifying today can create the opposite result tomorrow. The
sight of American troops leaving Afghanistan in chaotic fashion, or French
troops leaving Mali, are visible signs that an initially popular and necessary
military response can lose support over time. The EU has also yet to feel the
full economic brunt of sanctions.
It is, however, heartening that the EU’s power play is being seen, not just
heard: A more assertive bloc willing to invest in defense with US support,
confront economic dependencies that make it vulnerable, and find common ground
among its members. It’s an idealistic flag, but one worth flying.
Russia’s Next Target for Intimidation Could Be Israel
Ksenia Svetlova/The Tablet/March 02/2022
As Moscow slides into global pariah status, it will want to upgrade ties with
its closest allies on NATO’s southern flank: Syria and Iran
As Russia pounds Ukrainian cities and flaunts its nuclear weapons, there is
little doubt that the implications of the war between Russia and the West will
be felt globally—and the relations between states that prevailed only two weeks
ago are unlikely to remain static. The International Criminal Court in The Hague
may investigate possible war crimes committed by Russian leadership, while
Western governments keep piling on unprecedented economic sanctions. As a
result, Russia will be looking for alternative markets and spheres of influence,
specifically in the Middle East and Africa, where it has become very involved
during the last decade. While Moscow ratchets up military and economic pressure
on Ukraine, using forbidden types of weapons and indiscriminate firepower
against civilians, many in Israel fear that Moscow’s next move will happen in
the Middle East—where Moscow is formally aligned with Israel’s worst enemies.
By Feb. 15, when the whole world was still trying to guess Vladimir Putin’s real
intentions in Ukraine, his defense minister and confidant Sergey Shoigu had
traveled to Syria, where he met with President Bashar Assad and inspected a
Russian military exercise—the largest that Russia had held in the Eastern
Mediterranean since the end of the Cold War. For this occasion, Russia
transferred advanced weapons, including MiG-31s armed with hypersonic missiles,
as well as strategic Tupolev Tu-22M bombers to its Khmeimim air base,
positioning a potent new threat near Israel’s borders.
Just a few years ago, there was hardly any Russian presence in the Eastern
Mediterranean. Since the beginning of the Russian intervention in Syria,
facilitated by the Obama administration to counterbalance Turkey and aid Iran,
Moscow has reinforced its naval presence there dramatically. Although the
Russian forces in this area are still limited in comparison with their abilities
in the Black Sea, experts from the George C. Marshall European Center for
Security Studies believe that Russia already has enough forces to present a
potential challenge to longstanding U.S. and NATO naval dominance in the area.
As war clouds gathered over Ukraine, Israel became worried. Israel and Russia
maintain tactical cooperation over Syria and run a deconfliction center in order
to prevent Russian and Israeli forces from clashing. Since the beginning of
Russia’s military involvement in Syria, Israel has been walking on thin ice,
trying to balance its own security needs with the necessity of making nice with
the Russians who now controlled the Syrian skies. A change in the Russian
posture in Syria, particularly as America works to seal its reentry into the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, portends a far less
favorable and more dangerous calculus than the one that Israel has grown used to
since 2014.
For a time, the balancing act went well. While the Russians did not prevent
Israel from hunting Iranian war targets in Syria (as was often reported in
foreign media), Israel refrained from commenting on Russia’s aggressive
demeanor—even when the United States publicly voiced opposition. In fact, this
arrangement predates Russian involvement in Syria. In 2014—one year before
Russia became Israel’s neighbor on its northern border—Israel refused to condemn
Russia’s annexation of Crimea despite some pressure from the Obama
administration to do so.
But 2022 isn’t 2014. Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid first timidly condemned
Russian behavior in a TV interview. He then announced that Israel will vote with
the United States and EU countries against Russia in the U.N. General Assembly.
So what might be the repercussions for Israel of its public anti-Russian stance,
however mild? There is no doubt that Russia is looking to flex its muscles in
Syria, where it’s built an impressive military presence. As Russia slides into a
pariah status in the international arena, it will want to upgrade ties with its
closest allies in the region: Syria and Iran.
On the military front, signs of Russia’s new regional posture are already
visible. During the last few weeks that preceded the war in Ukraine, Russia
strongly rebuked Israeli activity in Syrian skies, while Israelis complained
that Russia was jamming GPS signals in Israeli airspace. At the end of January,
Russia and Syria started joint patrols along the Golan Heights and the Euphrates
River. In Israel, this activity was interpreted as a sharp message to Jerusalem:
Things in Syria might change soon, and fast. Since other countries like the
United States and Turkey also operate in Syrian skies, the Russian message might
be addressed to all concerned parties to let them know that Russia is determined
to force them out of Syrian airspace and help Damascus reclaim its sovereignty
there.
Yet other Russian messages were clearly directed at Israel. Since the beginning
of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Israel was still mulling its reaction,
busy Russian diplomats found the time to rebuke Israel over construction of new
cities in the Golan Heights—possibly in reaction to timid Israeli attempts to
support Ukraine without condemning Russia too strongly. While Moscow has since
signaled that cooperation with Israel will go on as usual, many in Israel fear
that Russia, emboldened by its violent move on Ukraine and furious about global
sanctions, will become more aggressive and assertive in protecting its interests
in Syria, and pay less attention to possible Israeli responses.
Until recently, some in Israel believed that Russia might work together with
Israel and the United States to push Iran out of Syria—under the assumption that
Russia and the United States shared this interest in common with Israel.
Nowadays, this kind of scenario (however dubious it was in the past) is simply
out of the question. Moscow will need Tehran and Damascus more than ever,
perhaps even more than they need Moscow. This development might mean more
intercooperation between all three parties and a significantly more aggressive
tone toward Israel. In turn, if Israel is not able to freely operate in Syrian
skies against Iranian military targets, an emboldened Iran seems likely to try
to further grow its military presence near Israel’s borders, raising the stakes
in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
Another possible target for Russia’s military is the Eastern Mediterranean. If
until now the sea was mostly seen as EU and NATO playground, today’s Russian
navy presence might pose a serious challenge to Europeans and Americans—and by
extension Israel, whose economy depends in large part on open shipping from its
ports. Turkey might soon see new developments in Syrian Idlib, where pro-Turkish
militants still operate, and 3 million Syrians find their refuge, which may
create wider instability in the region.
While Russian-Iranian rapprochement in Syria seems almost inevitable, the future
of strategic relations between the two countries is still a puzzle.
Until recently, Russia saw Iran as a problematic neighbor, an occasional partner
(for example, in Syria) and mostly as a country that was best held at arm’s
length. When Iran demanded acceptance as a full member of the Eurasian Economic
Treaty (a Russian-led block that also includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and
Kyrgyzstan), Russia took its time to “consider.” And when Iranians offered
extensive cooperation in trade and industry, Russia generally ignored these
requests. During the visit of the new Iranian president to Russia in January
this year, no important treaty or memorandum of understanding was signed, to the
disappointment of the Iranians.
Now, Russia needs Iran and its markets more than ever before. For Moscow it
might be the right time to expand the partnership, as the Iranians have been
demanding. Yet if Iran signs the nuclear deal, brokered in large part by Russia,
the roles of Russia and Iran may be reversed, with Iran—if sanctions are
lifted—having a stronger and even determining hand in that relationship.
There is a loud anti-Russian camp in Iran that remembers well how Moscow ignored
Iranian demands for a long time. Yet there is also no doubt that Tehran will be
happy to receive the latest Russian weapons. It now seems likely that Iran will
get the weapons systems it demanded a long time ago even if for some reason the
nuclear deal is not finalized. Russia has nothing more to lose and it will have
to seize every opportunity to continue to sell its weapons to anyone who demands
them.
What’s on the Iranian shopping list? According to the U.S. Defense Intelligence
Agency, Iran is interested in SU-30 fighters, Yak-130 trainers, T-90 tanks
and—the cherry on top—S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems that Russia
previously refrained from selling. Even if Russia fulfills only part of the
Iranian shopping list, it will be very bad news for Israel. Until recently,
advanced Russian missile systems inside Syria were under full Russian control.
That might change as well.
The greatest threat that Russia poses to Israel may be in the expansion of its
regional influence, especially in the absence of an effective U.S.-led security
structure. With the exception of Lebanon and Kuwait, which denounced Russia, and
Syria, a full Russian client that denounced the West, the Arab states are
currently sitting on the fence, unwilling to put their neck on the line for
either the United States or the Russians. During the last few years some of
these countries, particularly the Gulf states, didn’t hide their frustration
with American Middle East policy, which aimed under both the Obama and Trump
administrations at diminishing the American presence in the region—and which
under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden put a U.S. nuclear deal with Iran at
the top of American regional priorities. In response, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and
Egypt all began purchasing Russian (and Chinese) weapons, and putting their
relations with Moscow on display.
Russia has significantly expanded its web of relations in the Middle East,
mostly due to the fear of some countries that they might be abandoned by the
West. If the United States wants these countries to join an alliance against
Moscow, it might have to rethink its regional policy—or else rethink its
relations with Arab countries who might wish to continue with their current
balancing act. Yet Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia heavily depend on wheat
supplies from Russia and Ukraine. Rising prices on basic food staples and energy
might disrupt stability in many countries in the region, creating more risks and
insecurity. All of these developments might in turn have a negative influence on
Israel and its attempt to build new alliances in the region—especially if Russia
sees Israel as an American instrument, while the Americans see Iran as a
partner.
There is little doubt that fateful events in Ukraine have turned over the chess
board in the Middle East, as elsewhere. While risks for Israel are bound to
increase, it will need—now more than ever—firm American support and a confident
U.S. policy in the Middle East. A new American deal with Iran, which remains
America’s regional priority even during the war in Ukraine, seems unlikely to
provide those assurances.
*Ksenia Svetlova is the director of the program on Israel-Middle East relations
at the Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policy and a former member of the
Knesset.
البرتو أم. فرناندس من موقع ممري: الدروس التي يجب أن
يتعلمها الصديق والعدو من كارثة وتخبط بوتين
Lessons Learned By Friend And Foe From Putin's Debacle
Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/March 02/2022
Iran, Russia, China | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 365
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106721/106721/
Putin's war against Ukraine is likely to bring down at least one and maybe two
countries by the end. For a war whose latest phase is less than a week old, some
things are clear. The Russian invasion was blatant and undisguised, whatever
pretense at finding an immediate, plausible excuse for war (versus longstanding
grievances) absolutely failed. As Edward Luttwak memorably noted, Putin the
"patient hunter" had become a "reckless gambler."[1] And unlike previous Russian
actions, it was neither a short, swift coup (as with Crimea) nor a seizure of
some border regions nor an operation done as if by proxies.'
In attempting to openly take over an entire, large country, Russia resembled
more the United States going into Iraq than Putin's past aggressions, except
that the Americans were able to get their action blessed by the UN Security
Council (UNSCR 1441). China and Russia, Putin's Russia, voted in favor of a
resolution that the Americans subsequently used as an excuse for war (France
declared that it would veto a second resolution explicitly authorizing war).
Russia had no diplomatic cover for this war, even a flimsy or exaggerated one.
Putin's latest actions are a far cry from the way that his two allies, Iran and
China, have used to project power (the three held naval exercises right before
the crisis).[2] Iran threatens outright war against Israel and the United States
all the time. But when it actually wages war, it has used its ability to burrow
into susceptible regimes or find local proxies to give itself some sort of
cover. While Iranians fought on the ground in Syria in the service of the Assad
regime (alongside Russia), in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza, it has mostly
waged war – savage and bloody war – through intermediaries. When the Houthis
fire missiles and launch drones at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates, this is Iran behind the trigger, although Iran is
ostensibly at peace with both countries. No one is fooled by this, but it is
just enough of a fig leaf for those who want to look away, like the Europeans,
to do so.
While Iran has burrowed into regional regimes to project power and wage war in
the Middle East indirectly (while blustering about direct war), China has
burrowed into regimes globally and into the global economic system, projecting
power there while also expanding militarily and making its intentions for the
"unification" of the mainland with Taiwan crystal clear. It even tried to do
expand in Ukraine, making a move to acquire the important Ukrainian Aerospace
manufacturer Motor Sich, a ploy scuppered by Ukraine in 2021 on strategic
grounds and with American prompting.[3] Motor Sich later agreed to provide
motors for Turkish Akinci strike drones.[4]
Russia's debacle in Ukraine will provide important lessons for Putin's friends
in Tehran and Beijing on what to do and what to avoid. Patience, obfuscation,
and misdirection are key to assured success in their expansionary agendas. The
hegemony of the United States over the global financial system has been
underscored by the Western reactions to the Russian invasion and this reality
will be factored into their considerations. If anything, this will encourage
both states to prepare themselves better to mitigate against Western economic
reprisal in case of future crises. Russia spent a decade preparing to insulate
themselves from this Western response and failed within days of the war's
beginning.[5]
Lebanese Hezbollah's unofficial mouthpiece featured a remarkable column by its
chief editor Ibrahim Al-Amin on February 25, the day after the Ukraine War
began.[6] Al-Amin admitted to "concern" about Russia attacking a neighboring
country but ultimately saw the war as a reason to "rejoice" in the hopes that a
Russian victory would bring about the fall of the West. Such a fall would mean
the rise of the Global South liberated from the fetters of the West, from the
hatred and anger of the "White Man living in Washington, Paris, London, Berlin,
Tokyo or Montreal." Meanwhile the party line in Tehran is that the West cannot
be trusted to defend its friends (a message to America's Middle East allies) and
that if Ukraine had kept nukes, they would not have been attacked.[7]
The devastating effect of the sanctions card used by the West against Russia is
not lost on the Chinese government either. In remarks on February 25 blaming the
United States as the culprit behind the Ukraine conflict, Chinese Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying repeatedly criticized American "illegal
unilateral sanctions," noting that sanctions use by the U.S. had increased ten
times over the past 20 years.[8]
If America's enemies have learned important lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War,
so have others. Doughty Ukraine's resistance has underscored the obvious fact
that the best defense is what you can do yourself, not just relying on old
allies and alliances. NATO states will boost their defenses but Ukraine and
ongoing concern about American trustworthiness in the region will only deepen
the intentions of governments in the Middle East, such as some of the Gulf
states, to be able to defend themselves with the latest weapons, build their own
capabilities and to rely on vendors from more than one country.
Finally, the ugly Russian war in Ukraine, and especially the resistance of the
Ukrainian people, is, in a way, an unmerited gift to a Biden Administration
seemingly adrift in foreign policy. If the Ukrainians had folded and Kyiv had
been occupied in three or four days, the world would be having a very different
discourse today. While not used in preventing war, once again the "silver
bullet" of American foreign policy – economic sanctions – have been able to
severely damage an adversary from a distance, especially because acceptance for
such a step has been broad, in Europe and even in East Asia.
But the warning Obama's Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew had six years ago
about the danger of "sanctions overreach" remains.[9] He feared that the more
that sanctions are used, the greater the chance that foreigners will eventually
find ways to do business safely outside the U.S. (and friends) financial
umbrella. An America with a strong domestic economy, a revitalized domestic
manufacturing base, and a sound currency can delay the day when that "magic
bullet becomes a poison pill."[10] The Ukraine War has done many things so far,
one of them is to reconfirm the enduring relevance of armies, nation states, and
borders, as if there was any doubt. While the strong reaction to Russia's
invasion seems to underscore the power of globalization, many in the Global
South and East will see in it a vindication of the growing value of autarky.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
[1] Unherd.com/2022/02/vladimir-putins-reckless-gamble, February 28, 2022.
[2] Reuters.com/world/russia-china-iran-hold-joint-naval-drill-friday-isna-2022-01-20,
January 20, 2022.
[3] Rferl.org/a/ukraine-seizes-motor-sich/31161801.html, March 20, 2021.
[4] Thetribune.com/ukraines-motor-sich-to-supply-parts-for-turkish-aircraft-drones,
November 12, 2021.
[5] Grid.news/story/economy/2022/03/01/russia-planned-for-years-to-resist-sanctions-and-its-economy-is-crashing-anyway,
March 1, 2022.
[6] Al-akhbar.com/World/331316/%D9%87%D9%84-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC?fbclid=IwAR0JOdCvPM4dmDQCG0m7GFPVLymkwBEDN-GaUPE_iqAL0Nc7-SQ_1mLPUX4,
February 25, 2022.
[7] See MEMRI TV clip no. 9391, Friday Sermon In Garmeh, Iran By Abolghasem
Tatari: Ukraine Trusted The West, Agreed To Nuclear Disarmament And Oversight —
But U.S., Europe Did Not Protect It As Promised, February 25, 2022.
[8] See MEMRI TV clip no. 9392, Chinese FM Spokesperson Hua Chunying On Ukraine,
U.S., And Taiwan: U.S. Is The Culprit Behind Ukraine Conflict, Must Not Harm
Chinese Interests In Handling The Issue; Taiwan Cannot Be Compared To Ukraine,
February 25, 2022.
[9] Carnegieendowment.org/2016/03/30/u.s.-treasury-secretary-jacob-j.-lew-on-evolution-of-sanctions-and-lessons-for-future/ivpl,
March 30, 2016.
[10] Belfercenter.org/publication/grim-warning-against-americas-overuse-sanctions,
March 29, 2016.
The UAE and His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince
of Abu Dhabi, Lead the Way Again by Donating $5 Million for Humanitarian Support
to the Ukrainians
Edward Johnson/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
The UAE and its impressive Crown Prince might at this moment understandably be
sensitive to conflicts. This year Abu Dhabi suffered multiple drone attacks, as
well as attempted drone attacks, from the Houthis, a proxy militia of Iran, who
for years have been trying to take over Yemen at the southern end of the Arabian
Peninsula, with, it seems, a view, to have Iran replace Saudi Arabia, its oil
fields and its two most holy Islamic cities, Mecca and Medina.
It was the UAE, especially the trail-blazing leadership of His Highness Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and his two extraordinary senior advisors, one of whom
is his brother, Abu Dhabi's exceptional Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh
Abdullah bin Zayed, that broke a seemingly hopeless stalemate in the Middle East
by organizing the historic Abraham Accords, formalized on the South Lawn of the
White House on September 15, 2020.
The UAE and His Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, once again, have not
only "talked the talk," they have most generously "walked the walk."
His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, announced on March
2, 2022 a gift of $5 million in humanitarian assistance for the people in
Ukraine.
The United Arab Emirates, situated in one of the world most dangerous
neighborhoods and led by an exceptional statesman, His Highness Mohammed bin
Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, announced today, March 2, 2022, a gift of $5
million in humanitarian assistance for the people in Ukraine. Ukraine is
currently under an increasingly brutal assault by the Russian army, apparently
ordered to seize the country, evidently at all costs, by Russian President
Vladimir Putin, already accused of war crimes as well as decades of atrocities.
The UAE's donation, reported by Gulf News, is being made through the United
Nations Humanitarian Flash Appeal and Regional Refugee Response Plan "to benefit
civilians impacted by the situation in Ukraine." It is yet another "reflection
of the UAE's emphasis on humanitarian solidarity in conflict settings," noted
the Emirates News Agency WAM. The funds, according to these reports, will be
used to ensure the protection of civilians, and the "unimpeded access for
humanitarian agencies and actors and safe passage for those seeking to leave the
country without discrimination or obstacles as stated during the UN's Security
Council's meeting on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine on February 28."
The UAE and its impressive Crown Prince might at this moment understandably be
sensitive to conflicts. This year Abu Dhabi suffered multiple drone attacks, as
well as attempted drone attacks, from the Houthis, a proxy militia of Iran, who
for years have been trying to take over Yemen at the southern end of the Arabian
Peninsula, with, it seems, a view to have Iran replace Saudi Arabia, its oil
fields and its two most holy Islamic cities, Mecca and Medina.
The UAE has asked that the Houthis, whom US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
removed from the List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in February 2021,
apparently to please Iran before talks started to renegotiate the faulty 2015
JCPOA nuclear deal. Regrettably, the original deal, cancelled in 2018 by then US
President Donald J. Trump, would have allowed Iran, at the deal's sunset in a
few years, to possess an unlimited number of nuclear bombs.
Two days ago, in a vote greatly welcomed by the UAE, the United States agreed to
the UN listing the Houthis as a terrorist organization. US President Joe Biden
is apparently "still considering" that designation for the Houthis in the US,
possibly as negotiations with the Iranians are ongoing in Vienna, Austria.
It was the UAE, especially the trail-blazing leadership of His Highness Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and his two extraordinary senior advisors, one of whom
is his brother, Abu Dhabi's exceptional Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh
Abdullah bin Zayed, that broke a seemingly hopeless stalemate in the Middle East
by organizing the historic Abraham Accords, formalized on the South Lawn of the
White House on September 15, 2020. The Abraham Accords are a warm peace
agreement between the UAE, the United States and Israel, quickly followed by
Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Kosovo. The agreement, widely predicted not to
succeed, is, instead, two years later, universally hailed as an overwhelming
success, drawing headlines such as, "Abraham Accords Paying off for Israelis,
Arabs", "Yes, the Abraham Accords Were a Historic Success", and "A Year Later,
The Abraham Accords Are Worth Celebrating", to name but a few.
Now, once again, as a peaceful, stable country -- in that regard no different
from Ukraine -- and, like Ukraine, all too aware of how it feels to be under
assault -- the UAE and His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, in yet another dramatic
example of leadership, are leading the way to help the incredibly brave people
of Ukraine who are under the threat of unimaginable destruction. The UAE and His
Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, once again, have not only "talked the
talk," they have most generously "walked the walk."
Edward Johnson is based in the US and Europe.
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