English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 03/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The love of money is a root of all kinds of evil/Those who want to be rich fall into temptation and are trapped by many senseless and harmful desires
First Letter to Timothy 06/06-12/ Of course, there is great gain in godliness combined with contentment; for we brought nothing into the world, so that we can take nothing out of it; but if we have food and clothing, we will be content with these. But those who want to be rich fall into temptation and are trapped by many senseless and harmful desires that plunge people into ruin and destruction. For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil, and in their eagerness to be rich some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pains. But as for you, man of God, shun all this; pursue righteousness, godliness, faith, love, endurance, gentleness. Fight the good fight of the faith; take hold of the eternal life, to which you were called and for which you made the good confession in the presence of many witnesses.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 02-03/2022
Mudallali addresses UN Secretary General during assembly meeting
Senior U.S. Treasury delegation concludes three-day visit to Lebanon
President Aoun holds meeting with Premier Mikati, Minister Bou Habib over Lebanon's position on military developments between Russia and Ukraine
Lebanon’s President Tells US his Country is Fighting Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing
President Aoun addresses security situation with National Defense Minister, meets US Ambassador and UN’s Rushdie
President Aoun on “Twitter”: Presidency outside circle of targeting
Berri registers for upcoming parliamentary elections
Berri refers 2022 budget to finance and budget parliamentary committee
Berri meets UN’s Rushdie, Head of diplomatic mission of Kazakhstan
Deputy PM Office: IMF team visited Beirut to take stock of work done already
U.S. Treasury Delegation Urges Lebanon to Maximize Returns to Lebanese Depositors
Foreign Minister meets diplomats, US Treasury delegation, UN Special Coordinator
Nasrallah Reveals Electoral Tactics, Names of Candidates
Jumblatt cables Ukrainian Ambassador, expresses solidarity with Ukrainian people
KSA Says Seized 600 Million Captagon Pills from Lebanon in 6 Years
Abboud-Oueidat Row on Othman Torpedoes Judicial Council Meeting
40 Lebanese Fleeing Ukraine's War Land in Beirut
Germany's KfW and UNOPS Support Communities Affected by Beirut Port Explosion

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 02-03/2022
Egypt: Yet Another Ancient Coptic Monastery Left to Ruin/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/March 02/2022
Top UN Court to Hold Ukraine War Hearings
Russian Airborne Troops Land in Ukraine's Second City Kharkiv
As Russia Batters Ukraine, Both Sides Ready for More Talks
Russia Aims to Erase Us, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says on Day 7 of War
UN Says Ukraine Refugee Surge Soon to Hit 1M
Kremlin Critic Navalny Calls for Daily Anti-war Protests in Russia
Russia Receives Venezuela's 'Strong Support'
EU Approves New Sanctions against Belarus over Ukraine Invasion
China Will Not Join Sanctions on Russia, Banking Regulator Says
German Leader Visits Israel as Russia-Ukraine War Rages
Bitter Experience with US Is Reason for Iran to Push for Sustainable Nuclear Deal, Says Top Official
Satellite Photos Show Iran Had Another Failed Space Launch
E3 Group Rejects Compromising IAEA Independence amid Tehran Pressure
Washington Rallies its Allies over Syria for 'Ukrainian Reasons'
Egypt, Iraq Boost Cooperation Through Military Production
Statement on behalf of the Chair of the Freedom Online Coalition: A call to action on state-sponsored disinformation in Ukraine

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 02-03/2022
Five Lessons Learned From Sanctions on Iran for the Ukraine Crisis/Saeed Ghasseminejad and Behnam Ben TalebluThe National Interest/March 02/2022
What the West should do now to help Ukrainians on the battlefield/Ryan Brobst/Bradley Bowman/John Hardie/Jack Sullivan/Defense News/March 02/2022
Russia, Ukraine and the West’s grand delusion of freedom/Clifford D. May /Washington Times/March 02/2022
Biden's 'Capitulation' To Iran Endangers Arabs, Middle East, U.S./Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
Ukraine Flies the Flag for a More Assertive Europe/Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg/March 02/2022
Russia’s Next Target for Intimidation Could Be Israel/Ksenia Svetlova/The Tablet/March 02/2022
Lessons Learned By Friend And Foe From Putin's Debacle/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/March 02/2022
The UAE and His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Lead the Way Again by Donating $5 Million for Humanitarian Support to the Ukrainians/Edward Johnson/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 02-03/2022
Mudallali addresses UN Secretary General during assembly meeting
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
In the wake of the United Nations General Assembly’s vote on Wednesday against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Permanent Representative of Lebanon to the United Nations, Amal Mudallali, addressed UN Secretary General, António Guterres, with the following speech:
“Mr. President,
Lebanon voted Yes on this resolution because Lebanon, a founding member of the UN, believes in the purposes and principles of the United Nations charter especially: the prohibition of the threat or use of force in international relations, the principle of non-intervention, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.
Mr. President,
These are not mere slogans for Lebanon. We lived through invasions, occupation, intervention in Lebanon’s internal affairs, and experienced devastation, loss and pain that we are still enduring its consequences today. That’s why our decision today was not taken lightly. We know what war means. But we also know that wars happen not only when people fail to prevent them, but most importantly when the voices of war drown the cries for peace. Lebanon, a peace-loving nation, enjoys good relations and friendships with all parties to this conflict, with Russia and Ukraine, and in this spirit, we call on everybody to go back to the logic of peace.
Mr. President,
Yesterday, a European colleague told me he has never lived through war. I lived through at least 2 invasions, civil war, multiple assassinations and explosions. That’s why Mr. President, I don’t want anybody to live in what we lived through. It’s time for diplomacy, for dialogue, and a peaceful resolution of this conflict. I hope that all my colleagues here in this GA hall will put the same energy and commitment that was put to make this vote and its result a reality, to start working for a peaceful solution that takes both sides’s concerns and interests into consideration, so the world will step away from this abyss of war.
Mr. president,
The preamble of the UN charter tells us “to unite our strength, to maintain international peace and security”. Now we need this unity. Unity for peace. The United Nations is well positioned to step up and step in to make this peace a reality. Now we need to stop the escalation in words and deeds and help both sides to take the path of peace for the sake not only of the two sides but for the sake of our world.
Mr. President,
We in the Middle East are very concerned about this war because of its impact on Europe, but also because we know from experience that what happens in Europe does not stay in Europe. The last 2 World Wars left deep scars in our part of the world, obliterated countries and hopes, and we are still living its aftermath today. I hope Mr. President we all learn the lessons of the last wars and I hope that from this moment we start working only for peace, peace in our time, peace in all time.
Mr. President,
I agree with Albert Camus in his speech upon receiving the Nobel Prize in literature in 1957, that “Probably, every generation sees itself as charged with remaking the world. Mine, however, knows that it will not remake the world. But its task is perhaps even greater, for it consists in keeping the world from destroying itself.”This is the same responsibility bestoed upon us, as the Charter instructed to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.
I thank you Mr. President.”

Senior U.S. Treasury delegation concludes three-day visit to Lebanon
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022 
A senior delegation from the U.S. Department of the Treasury concluded a three-day visit to Lebanon on March 2. The delegation met with members of the Lebanese government, civil society, and the banking sector to reiterate the U.S. government’s commitment to stand with the Lebanese people during this time of economic turmoil. The delegation encouraged the work of the Lebanese government to develop a possible International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported program, and it noted that such a program could help restore much needed confidence in the economic system. The delegation raised the crippling nature of systemic corruption and identified specific areas critical to address the lack of transparency and accountability in its meetings with the public and private sector, emphasizing that addressing corruption in Lebanon is a pre-requisite to tackling the governance and economic crisis. The delegation also urged government and bank officials to ensure that any financial recovery plan maximizes the returns to Lebanese depositors, especially those with relatively smaller accounts, while emphasizing the need for swift action toward improving the financial system.
The delegation emphasized the need for the Government of Lebanon to implement deep, meaningful reforms prior to the elections. The delegation highlighted U.S.-designated Al Qard Al Hassan as one example of an unregulated, pseudo-financial institution that abuses its Ministry of Interior-granted NGO license and provides cover to Hizballah’s financial activity, jeopardizing the credibility of the Lebanese financial system. The delegation also raised concerns about abuses within the banking system by members of the political and economic elite. They emphasized the need to make serious efforts to investigate those abuses, particularly by the Banque du Liban and the Special Investigation Commission. They pressed for the appropriate authorities to conduct investigations and perform due diligence on any related transactions. The delegation also discussed relevant preparations for Lebanon’s upcoming Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) mutual evaluation. The Treasury officials also thanked the Lebanese government for its strong stance opposing the unjustified, unprovoked, and premeditated invasion of Ukraine.


President Aoun holds meeting with Premier Mikati, Minister Bou Habib over Lebanon's position on military developments between Russia and Ukraine
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022 
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, held a meeting attended by Prime Minister, Najib Mikati and Foreign Affairs Minister, Abdullah Bou Habib, this afternoon at the Presidential Palace.
The meeting was devoted to study Lebanon's position on the military developments between Russia and Ukraine.
Meeting Statement:
After the meeting, Minister Bou Habib made the following statement:
“In light of the invitation addressed to the United Nations General Assembly this evening, (Beirut Time) to discuss the emerging crisis between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and based on the historical relations which unite Lebanon and the Russian Federation, and since Lebanon has suffered from military aggressions and invasions against its sovereignty, land and people, and in accordance with the provisions of the UN Charter, in which Lebanon was one of the participants in issuing, and since Lebanon believes that military conflicts leave nothing but tragedies, damage, losses, blood and destruction on countries and peoples, Based on Lebanon’s firm conviction that dialogue remains the only available option for resolving disputes between states based on international charters, Lebanon calls on the United Nations General Assembly to work on enhancing opportunities for negotiation between the Russian and Ukrainian sides to reach a peaceful solution to the conflict, which restores security and stability.
In light of the current situation, Lebanon remains consistent with its declared position on Thursday, February 25th”. Victoria Nuland: President Aoun received a phone call from US Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. Nuland discussed bilateral relations and ways of enhancing them in all fields, especially with regard to cooperation between the two countries.  The call also tackled the stages of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, the results of the visit of the US Treasury delegation to Beirut, and the developments of the file demarcation of the southern maritime border, in addition to oil and electric power import from Egypt and Jordan through Syria. Ongoing preparations for the Lebanese parliamentary elections, and military developments between Russia and Ukraine were also addressed.—Presidency Press Office

Lebanon’s President Tells US his Country is Fighting Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun informed Tuesday a visiting US Treasury delegation that Lebanon continues to combat corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing operations. “Lebanese laws are applied firmly and accurately in this field,” Aoun told the delegation during a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Baabda. He indicated that Lebanon actively participates in international efforts to combat money laundering, and plays its role in the Financial Action Group in the Middle East region. “Accordingly, Lebanon established the National Coordination Committee for Combating the Financing of Terrorism and the National Anti-Corruption Commission,” the President said. The US delegation visiting the Lebanese capital includes First Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury responsible for combating the financing of terrorism and financial crimes, Paul Ahren, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury Eric Meyer. US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea also attended the Baabda meeting. The Lebanese presidency in a statement said Aoun informed members of the US delegation that the fight against corruption will continue unabated in the remainder of this term. Later on Tuesday, the US delegation visited Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain al-Tineh but did not make any statement. Lebanon is struggling to take its steps out of a deep financial crisis that triggered a collapse in the currency and soaring poverty.

President Aoun addresses security situation with National Defense Minister, meets US Ambassador and UN’s Rushdie
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
President of the Republic on Wednesday met with National Defense Minister, Maurice Sleem, at Baabda Palace. The meeting tackled general affairs and the latest political developments, in addition to the security situation and the needs of institutions affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, as well as the situation of the Military Council after the cabinet appointed two members in it. Military and social conditions, and the need to provide the necessary financial support were also addressed.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator:
President Aoun received the UN Deputy Special Coordinator in Lebanon, the Resident Coordinator for United Nations Activities and Humanitarian Coordinator, Dr. Najat Rushdie. The most important points contained in the "UN Strategic Framework for the years 2022-2026", and the areas through which the United Nations intends to support for the Lebanese government and the Lebanese people, in addition to the expected results of the aid and programs provided were tackled in the meeting. Dr. Rushdie noted that "The framework describes the unified vision of the various members of the UN family in Lebanon to support Lebanon's priorities in security, politics, human rights, development and humanitarian affairs”. For his side, President Aoun expressed his appreciation for the role played by the United Nations to help Lebanon overcome its economic, social and life crises, praising in particular "The great effort made by Dr. Rushdie, especially in terms of coordinating the work of about 26 United Nations agencies, programs and funds in Lebanon”. Moreover, President Aoun hoped that the framework would be fruitful, especially in light of the great challenges that Lebanon is facing at various levels, especially in the sectors of education, health and hospitalization, in addition to the suffering of the private sector, as a result of the current economic and financial crisis, “Which constitute priorities that must be worked on”.
Statement:
After the meeting, Dr. Rushdi made the following statement:
“I met with His Excellency the President and his team, to present to him the "new framework of the United Nations" with regard to development priorities for the next three years, because for Lebanon, we are not only talking about humanitarian aid, but also support for the private sector and economic and social recovery services. His Excellency the President was clear in his directives regarding priorities, as it is important for him to support basic services for the Lebanese people, including the health and education sectors, in addition to the energy sector, so that all Lebanese men and women are assured of basic services and work to revive the private sector, with the aim of creating job opportunities that contribute to the economic recovery as a whole. For us, these are clear directives, and we will start working with the government and parliament in the coming weeks and months so that we can finish this framework so that it will be the pillar of the United Nations' support for the Lebanese state”.
Questions & Answers:
In response to a question about whether this framework would lead to stopping or easing the aid provided by the United Nations in general to Lebanon, Dr. Rushdie replied: "The United Nations never stops the aid it provides, and as long as it started providing it, this means that there are needs for it. Today there is no way to stop it, and what concerns us, according to the directives of His Excellency the President, is not to talk only about humanitarian aid, but to go beyond it and move in a development sector, so that many resources that citizens need for the purpose of development are secured, such as education, which constitutes the future of the country, as well as health, so that citizens can obtain medicine and health services, because if the patient is unable to obtain medicine, this does not help in building a future for the country.
In this regard, we continue our consultations with the government, parliament, civil and international society, and the private sector”.
US Ambassador:
President Aoun received the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, and discussed with her the Lebanese-US relations, the recent international developments and the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The stages that the file of demarcation of the southern maritime borders has gone through were also addressed.—Presidency Press Office

President Aoun on “Twitter”: Presidency outside circle of targeting
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
In a tweet on Wednesday morning, President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, confirmed "that “The presidency is outside target area”, and that the President of the Republic is the one who initiates negotiations in international treaties and agreements and then concludes them with the Prime Minister, then the Council of Ministers, and finally the Parliament, under the terms of Article 52 of the Constitution. President Aoun wrote the following tweet: "I regret that some of the Lebanese, officials and media figures, are ignorant of the constitution and are drowning in nationally harmful statements about the president's position, role and oath. The presidency is outside the circle of targeting. The President begins negotiating international treaties and agreements, then concludes them with the Prime Minister, then the Council of Ministers, and finally the Parliament, under the terms of Article 52 of the Constitution”.—Presidency Press Office

Berri registers for upcoming parliamentary elections

NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday registered to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled to take place on May 15 for the second South Lebanon electoral district.

Berri refers 2022 budget to finance and budget parliamentary committee
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday referred the 2022 state budget to the finance and budget parliamentary committee. On another level, the House Speaker cabled Algerian National Assembly President, Salah Goudjil, congratulating him on his re-election.

Berri meets UN’s Rushdie, Head of diplomatic mission of Kazakhstan
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday received at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, United Nations Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon and Humanitarian Coordinator, Najat Rushdie. Discussions reportedly touched on areas of cooperation between the UN and the parliament. Speaker Berri also met with the head of the diplomatic mission of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Lebanon, Minister Plenipotentiary Yerjan Kalikinov, with whom he discussed the general situation in Lebanon and the region, as well as the Lebanese-Kazakh relations.

Deputy PM Office: IMF team visited Beirut to take stock of work done already
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The press office of Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Saadé Chami issued on Wednesday the following statement:
“A technical team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, visited Beirut for two days (February 28-March 1 2022). The team met with members of the committee in charge of the negotiations with the IMF (led by Dr. Saade Chami, Deputy Prime Minister) and also with the President of the Republic, the Speaker of the Parliament, and the Prime Minister. The objective of the visit was to take stock of the work done already and outline the next steps needed to reach an agreement on the IMF program. This visit comes less than a month after the IMF's virtual mission, building on the good progress made during that mission. A full IMF mission could still visit Lebanon in the second half of March to continue the discussions toward a Fund-supported program. The IMF team and the Lebanese authorities agreed on the need for (i) undertaking macroeconomic reforms in the areas of medium-term fiscal adjustment, financial sector reform, and exchange rate unification, as well as on (ii) structural reforms including poverty alleviation, governance, and electricity, among others. The IMF team emphasized the need for some legislations required prior to taking the program to the Executive Board of the IMF for final approval. The two parties also agreed that any delay in undertaking the needed reforms and the supporting legislations will raise the cost of adjustment in the future.”

U.S. Treasury Delegation Urges Lebanon to Maximize Returns to Lebanese Depositors
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
A senior delegation from the U.S. Department of the Treasury concluded a three-day visit to Lebanon on Wednesday.
The delegation met with members of the Lebanese government, civil society, and the banking sector to reiterate the U.S. government’s “commitment to stand with the Lebanese people during this time of economic turmoil,” the Treasury said in a statement. The delegation encouraged the work of the Lebanese government to develop a possible International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported program, and it noted that such a program “could help restore much needed confidence in the economic system.” The delegation also raised the issue of “the crippling nature of systemic corruption and identified specific areas critical to address the lack of transparency and accountability in its meetings with the public and private sector, emphasizing that addressing corruption in Lebanon is a pre-requisite to tackling the governance and economic crisis,” the statement said. The delegation also urged government and bank officials to ensure that any financial recovery plan “maximizes the returns to Lebanese depositors, especially those with relatively smaller accounts, while emphasizing the need for swift action toward improving the financial system.”Moreover, the delegation emphasized the need for the Government of Lebanon to implement “deep, meaningful reforms prior to the elections.”Separately, the delegation highlighted Hizbullah’s U.S.-designated al-Qard al- -Hassan financial institution as “one example of an unregulated, pseudo-financial institution that abuses its Ministry of Interior-granted NGO license and provides cover to Hizbullah’s financial activity, jeopardizing the credibility of the Lebanese financial system,” the statement said. The delegation also raised concerns about “abuses within the banking system by members of the political and economic elite,” emphasizing the need to “make serious efforts to investigate those abuses, particularly by the Banque du Liban and the Special Investigation Commission.”They also pressed for the appropriate authorities to “conduct investigations and perform due diligence on any related transactions.” The delegation also discussed relevant preparations for Lebanon’s upcoming Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) mutual evaluation. The Treasury officials also thanked the Lebanese government for “its strong stance opposing the unjustified, unprovoked, and premeditated invasion of Ukraine.”

Foreign Minister meets diplomats, US Treasury delegation, UN Special Coordinator
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Abdallah Bou Habib, held on Wednesday a joint meeting with Ambassador Merete Juhl of Denmark, Ambassador Hans Peter van der Woude of the Netherlands, and Ambassador Przemyslaw Niesiolowski of Poland, in addition to Czech Chargé d'Affaires Dagmar Minarikova, and Deputy Ambassador of Germany Katharina Lack. The diplomats thanked Minister Bou Habib for the Lebanese stance on the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. The meeting also discussed the issue of Lebanese stranded in Ukraine and the assistance they are receiving, especially from Poland.
Bou Habib later met with a delegation from the US Treasury, including Acting Assistant Secretary and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, Paul Ahren, and his deputy Eric Mayer. The Minister also received UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, who informed her host that she will head to New York to submit a report on Lebanon at the UN Security Council's meeting. The pair also discussed the upcoming parliamentary elections and the ministry's measures to facilitate the vote of Lebanese expats.

Nasrallah Reveals Electoral Tactics, Names of Candidates
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday revealed his party’s tactics for the upcoming parliamentary elections and the names of Hizbullah’s candidates, the majority of whom are current MPs.
“In some districts, we will be on the same lists with allies and friends, and in other districts we might be on two lists under an agreement based on electoral interest,” Nasrallah said in a televised address dedicated to the issue of elections.
Noting that we are no longer hearing accusations that Hizbullah and its allies want to postpone the elections, Nasrallah said he can confirm that “the country is heading to elections on the scheduled date in May.”
“Over the past four years, not everything that we talked about was fulfilled, but there were seriousness and achievements,” Hizbullah’s leader added.
He announced the names of Hizbullah’s candidates as follows:
- Baabda district: Ali Ammar
- Jbeil district: Raed Berro
- Zahle district: Rami Abu Hamdan
- Baalbek-Hermel district: Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, Ibrahim al-Moussawi, Ihab Hamadeh and Ali al-Muqdad
- Tyre district: Hassan Ezzeddine and Hussein Jishi
- Beirut’s second district: Amin Cherri
- Nabatiyeh district: Mohammed Raad
- Bint Jbeil district: Hassan Fadlallah
- Marjeyoun district: Ali Fayyad

Jumblatt cables Ukrainian Ambassador, expresses solidarity with Ukrainian people
NNA/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, on Wednesday cabled Ukrainian Ambassador to Lebanon, Ihor Ostash, expressing solidarity with the Ukrainian people.
In his cable, Jumblatt said: “On behalf of the Progressive Socialist Party, I express my solidarity with the Ukrainian people who are facing this unjustified war and its tragic humanitarian consequences.
Only a diplomatic solution based on international law and previous treaties such as the Minsk Agreement can solve this tragedy and stop the bloodshed."Jumblatt received a response letter from the Ukrainian Ambassador, who expressed "great respect for Jumblatt's personality and his contribution to Lebanon’s history.”

KSA Says Seized 600 Million Captagon Pills from Lebanon in 6 Years
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
On a table covered in a green sheet, two Saudi officers pour out thousands of white amphetamine pills they have just seized from a neighborhood in the kingdom's Red Sea city of Jeddah. An AFP crew accompanied the anti-narcotics agents on their raid Tuesday when police officers arrested three people carrying 28,000 Captagon tablets. The operation -- during which AFP was requested to turn off its cameras for security reasons -- was part of the country's efforts to crack down on dealers and smugglers of the amphetamine-type stimulant. "The kingdom's authorities have in the past six years foiled attempts to smuggle more than 600 million amphetamine pills" coming from Lebanon alone, Major Mohammed al-Nujaidi, spokesman for Saudi Arabia's General Directorate of Narcotics Control, told AFP. He accused the "Hizbullah terrorist militia" of being "the main source smuggling them and manufacturing them." The Lebanese group, which is backed by Iran, denies such accusations. According to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, Captagon has been manufactured mostly in Lebanon and Syria, where it fueled jihadist fighters. Much of it is bound for Saudi Arabia. The country of 35 million, more than half of whom are under the age of 35, is witnessing unprecedented social change and has long suffered from drugs. According to an AFP count, more than 25 million Captagon pills have been seized across the region since the start of the year. "There have been different smuggling methods, including in fruits and vegetables, tires, rocks, building materials and furniture," al-Nujaidi said.
More seizures -
Last April, the Saudi government suspended fruits and vegetables from Lebanon after the seizure of more than five million Captagon pills hidden in fruit -- one in a series of smuggling attempts foiled last year by the Saudi authorities. "It came at the right time," said the Saudi official, adding that the country seized more Captagon pills in the first quarter of last year than it did in all of 2019 and 2020. Lebanon is often criticized by Gulf countries for not cooperating in the war against drugs, particularly Captagon. Beirut is embroiled in its worst ever economic crisis and is keen to mend ties with the kingdom and other Gulf nations, who have repeatedly voiced concern over Iran's growing influence. In January, Lebanon said it intercepted a large quantity of Captagon hidden in a tea shipment bound for Saudi Arabia, which the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime says from 2015-2019 reported the most amphetamine seizures in the Middle East/Southwest Asia region. Shayaa al-Moussa, a customs agent at the Jeddah port, said that all shipments arriving in the kingdom are scanned via X-ray. "And, in case of suspicion, the containers are transferred to be searched manually," he said. Nujaidi said Saudi authorities seized more than 119 million amphetamine pills last year in cooperation with partners including Malaysia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Abboud-Oueidat Row on Othman Torpedoes Judicial Council Meeting
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022 
The Higher Judicial Council failed to convene yesterday due to a dispute between Council chief Judge Suheil Abboud and his deputy, State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat, over putting a letter demanding the prosecution of ISF chief Maj. Gen. Omad Othman on the session’s agenda, informed sources said. The letter was sent by the lawyers of two activist groups -- the People Want to Reform the Regime and the State Recovery Gathering.The letter was placed on the meeting’s agenda “without the knowledge of Judge Oueidat, who categorically rejected the matter, the thing that led to canceling the meeting,” the sources told al-Liwaa newspaper in remarks published Wednesday.

40 Lebanese Fleeing Ukraine's War Land in Beirut
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022 
A plane carrying 40 Lebanese students, who had been trapped in Ukraine, arrived Wednesday morning at Beirut's airport. The Higher Relief Committee had earlier announced their arrival in a statement. It said that a series of contacts had been made by the committee's Secretary-General, Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kheir, in cooperation with the Foreign Ministry, a Lebanese expatriate businessman and the Lebanese Embassy in Romania. Kheir had said that Lebanon will cover the expenses of the evacuation of Lebanese nationals trapped in Ukraine. The plane with the first group of Lebanese evacuees arrived from Bucharest overnight. Another one will arrive in the upcoming days from Poland according to Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kheir. "Romania was the easiest route,” Kheir said. Businessman Mohamad Murad hosted the 40 Lebanese students in Romania and bought their tickets, the National News Agency said. Murad said that others will also leave Bucharest to Lebanon soon.

Germany's KfW and UNOPS Support Communities Affected by Beirut Port Explosion
Naharnet/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022 
The KfW Development Bank and the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) have signed an agreement to rehabilitate damaged municipal infrastructure and assets in the areas affected by the Beirut Port explosion in the next 3 years. "With the support from the Federal Republic of Germany through the KfW Development Bank, UNOPS will rehabilitate damaged public service buildings and public spaces and restore critical urban services including roads, storm and wastewater networks and provide solar energy solutions in the municipalities of Beirut and Bourj Hammoud," UNOPS said, in a press release.
It added that the project – based on a thorough needs assessment and consultation process which is currently ongoing - will focus on the most damaged, low income, and underserved parts of the affected areas, as well as on service delivery buildings serving the population in the Beirut and Bourj Hammoud municipalities.Mr. Sascha Stadtler, Director KfW Office Lebanon, said that "about 1 ½ years after the port explosion and much needed small scale emergency measures by so many actors and donors including Germany , it is time for a more comprehensive and coordinated reconstruction process of municipal infrastructure and services in the affected areas. With a grant contribution of 20 million Euros Germany through KfW development bank is contributing to this effort.""Together with UNOPS we want to capitalize on the achievements and experiences reached so far by other national and international development partners", Stadtler went on to say. "We are always guided by the principle: building back better. At the end of the reconstruction process, we want to have a city and a society that is more resilient to future crises,” he added. Mr. Muhammad Usman Akram, UNOPS Director of the Amman Multi-country Office said for his part that “our latest partnership with KfW in Lebanon seeks to enhance community resilience and promote social cohesion through improving access to critical services offered by Beirut and Bourj Hammoud municipalities."
"Thanks to the funding from Germany, UNOPS will assist in ensuring sustainability of the recovery process for the benefit of the most affected communities,” Akram added. UNOPS said that in addition to undertaking major infrastructure works, it will engage with civil society actors and local NGOs in implementing the project, given the key role played by local organizations in responding to the Beirut Port explosion and their in-depth knowledge of the communities’ needs."Through a small grants component, the project will support creative, effective, and sustainable small initiatives that would benefit the affected communities and promote social cohesion at the local level," UNOPS stated. It added that it will also carry out capacity building activities for the municipal personnel and other project partners, "in line with the UNOPS mandate, related to the operations and maintenance of the rehabilitated assets and infrastructure."On 4 August 2020, a devastating explosion rocked the Beirut Port, destroying most of the port’s facilities and severely damaging the surrounding neighborhoods within six kilometers of the port area. The disaster left more than 200 people dead, around 6,000 injured or disabled, and estimated 300,000 homeless. Preliminary assessments indicated that the neighborhoods most affected by the explosion are the municipality of Beirut in Beirut Governorate and Bourj Hammoud, Bachoura, and Sin El Fil municipalities in Mount Lebanon Governorate, UNOPS said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 02-03/2022
Egypt: Yet Another Ancient Coptic Monastery Left to Ruin
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/March 02/2022 
Due to heavy rainfalls on Feb. 19, 2022, the Saint Paul monastery near the Red Sea Mountains of Egypt suffered extreme damage—including collapsed walls and devastation around the roads and countryside—as seen in a video published shortly thereafter. Even the roads to and from the monastery have been cut off. One of the monks published an urgent appeal, saying, “We are exposed to a tragedy in the truest sense of the word—a tragedy unprecedented in scope.” Founded in the fourth century, the monastery is named after Saint Paul the Anchorite (227-341)—history’s very first Christian hermit, who preceded (and inspired) Egypt’s more famous monk, Saint Anthony the Great. The monastery was built around the cave that Saint Paul lived in for some 80 years and is place of pilgrimage. It’s worth noting that a month earlier, on Jan. 6, 2022—ironically, Christmas Eve for Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Christians—the walls of another ancient Coptic monastery in Egypt, founded in the fifth century, came crumbling down. In both cases, it seems clear that the government of Egypt has been somewhat apathetic in preserving or repairing these nearly two-thousand year old structures. After all, one seldom hears of the collapse of Egypt’s much older pre-Christian antiquities, which are zealously maintained. Yet Egypt’s ancient Christian heritage seldom gets the same care. To what extent, one wonders, is such apathy an implicit response to Islamic law? As is well known, the so-called Conditions of Omar (my partial translation here) maintains that, while preexisting churches and monasteries may be allowed to exist, they should never be repaired or refurbished; they are to be left to the ravages of Time. The exact excerpt from the Conditions follows: “[conquered Christians are expected] not to build a church in our city—nor a monastery, convent, or monk’s cell in the surrounding areas—and not to repair those that fall in ruins or are in Muslim quarters.”To reiterate, to what extent are these well-known teachings influencing—even if subconsciously—the authorities’ nonchalant response to the ongoing dilapidation of Egypt’s ancient Christian heritage?

Top UN Court to Hold Ukraine War Hearings
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The International Court of Justice said Tuesday it would hold genocide hearings on March 7 and 8 over the war in Ukraine, as fighting intensifies. The Hague-based ICJ, the United Nations' top court, will open the public hearings after Ukraine lodged a complaint with the court to order Russia to stop its invasion.
"The hearings will be devoted to the request for the indication of provisional measures submitted by Ukraine," AFP quoted the court as saying in a statement. More than 660,000 people have already fled abroad, the UN refugee agency said, estimating that a million people are displaced within ex-Soviet Ukraine, which has a population of 44 million. The UN estimates that up to four million refugees may need help in the coming months and 12 million more will need assistance within the country. The ICJ, which is based in the Netherlands capital The Hague, does not have a mandate to bring criminal charges against individual Russian leaders behind the invasion. But it is the world's top court for resolving legal complaints between states over alleged breaches of international law. International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan had already announced he was launching an investigation on the "situation in Ukraine" following Russia's invasion. "I am satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine" since 2014, Khan said in a statement Monday. Russia has defied international bans, boycotts and sanctions to press ahead with an offensive it says is aimed at defending Ukraine's Russian speakers and toppling the leadership. The United States trusts "the Court is taking into consideration the dire circumstances and rapidly unfolding events," the State Department said in a statement Tuesday. Spokesman Ned Price said Washington hopes the court "will act with utmost urgency on Ukraine's request for provisional measures" in the hearing. "Each day that Russia is unconstrained in its aggression is a day that brings more violence, suffering, death, and destruction in Ukraine," he said.

Russian Airborne Troops Land in Ukraine's Second City Kharkiv
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Russian forces landed in Ukraine's second biggest city on Wednesday and triggered immediate clashes in the streets of Kharkiv, the military said, following Moscow's relentless air assault across the ex-Soviet state. The airborne operation came as US President Joe Biden branded Vladimir Putin a "dictator", warning the sanction campaign to cripple Russia's economy would escalate and its oligarchs were being targeted, AFP said. In Biden's first State of the Union address, he hailed the resolve of the Western alliance and voiced solidarity with Ukraine as lawmakers in the US Congress gave a standing ovation to the Ukrainian people. "A Russian dictator, invading a foreign country, has costs around the world," Biden told lawmakers in his annual State of the Union address, promising "robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at Russia's economy."But as he spoke a Russian escalation was reported to be underway in Kharkiv, an apparent bid by Moscow to capture its first major Ukrainian city of the invasion. Since Russian troops rolled into Ukraine last week to achieve Putin's mission of overthrowing the pro-Western government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, hundreds of civilians have been reported killed.
Russian forces have carried out a massive bombing campaign and encircled urban centers, but Ukraine insists no major city has yet been overtaken. "Russian airborne troops landed in Kharkiv... and attacked a local hospital," the Ukrainian army said in a statement on messaging app Telegram. "There is an ongoing fight between the invaders and the Ukrainians."Russia hit a residential building in the city on Tuesday killing eight people, drawing comparisons to the massacres of civilians in Sarajevo in the 1990s and condemnation for what Zelensky called a "war crime". A fire broke out on Wednesday in the barracks of a flight school in Kharkiv following an airstrike, according to Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Minister. "Practically there are no areas left in Kharkiv where an artillery shell has not yet hit," he was quoted as saying in a statement on Telegram. Kharkiv, a largely Russian-speaking city near the Russian border, has a population of around 1.4 million.
'Putin was wrong'
Biden, who had earlier spoken with Zelensky on the phone, announced new measures against Russia and its wealthy elite with a new task force to go after the "crimes" of Russian oligarchs. "We are coming for your ill-begotten gains," he said, prompting the rare sight of members of both parties standing to applaud. "And tonight I am announcing that we will join our allies in closing off American air space to all Russian flights -- further isolating Russia and adding an additional squeeze on their economy." The US leader said Putin's aggression was "premeditated and totally unprovoked" -- but hailed the resolve of the Western alliance in responding with brutal sanctions. "(Putin) thought he could divide us here at home," Biden said. "But Putin was wrong. We are ready."He repeated his commitment that no American troops would be sent to Ukraine to confront the invading forces. A lack of will to send foreign troops into battle has given Russia space to press on with its assault on Ukrainian cities. A strike on the main TV tower in Kyiv killed five people Tuesday and knocked out some state broadcasting, Ukrainian officials said, but left the structure intact. Fresh explosions were heard late Tuesday in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva, 50 miles (80 kilometers) to the south, according to local media. News outlets also reported Russian missiles damaging residential buildings and a hospital in Zhytomyr, citing the major transport hub's mayor Sergei Sukhomline. The International Criminal Court has opened a war crimes investigation against Russia. Ukraine says more than 350 civilians, including 14 children, have been killed in the conflict.
Belarus attack fears -
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also said overnight that it feared an attack from Belarus over its northern border. "Belarusian troops have been put on high alert and are concentrated in areas closest to the border with Ukraine," the ministry said Tuesday in a statement on Facebook.
Ukrainian intelligence noted "significant activity" of aircraft in the border area, it said. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday he had ordered more troops to the south of the country, the Belta news agency reported. But forces of Belarus, a close ally of Russia, would not be taking part in the attack on Ukraine, he added. In southern Ukraine, the city of Mariupol on the Azov Sea was left without electricity after Russian bombardment, while Kherson on the Black Sea reported Russian checkpoints encircling the city. In a key victory for Moscow, Russia's defense ministry said its troops had linked up with pro-Moscow rebel forces from eastern Ukraine along the Azov Sea coast.
Companies exit Russia
Russia has defied international bans, boycotts and sanctions to press ahead with an offensive it says is aimed at defending Ukraine's Russian speakers and toppling the leadership. In response, more Western companies have withdrawn from projects in Russia, deepening the economic toll on Moscow that saw the ruble collapse this week. Apple, ExxonMobil and Boeing announced Tuesday in rapid succession steps to withdraw or freeze business in Russia. The moves followed earlier announcements by Disney, Ford and Mastercard among others.
The invasion has sent global markets into a spiral, with crude surging past $110 a barrel Wednesday and equities sinking. On top of sanctions, Germany has promised arms for Ukraine, while the EU said, in a first, that it will buy and supply arms to the country.
Zelensky has reiterated an urgent appeal for Ukraine to be admitted to the European Union.
- No escape -
More than 660,000 people have fled abroad, the UN refugee agency said, and as battles rage for control of major cities many more are expected to follow. Residents of capital Kyiv are crammed into makeshift bomb shelters awaiting their own fight, with a massive Russian military convoy stationed just north of the city. Teacher Irina Butyak, 38, has spent two days in the basement of her apartment block sheltering with some 20 people. "We have train tickets for western Ukraine for tomorrow," she told AFP as air raid sirens blared directly overhead.
"I don't think we will make the train."

As Russia Batters Ukraine, Both Sides Ready for More Talks
Associated Press/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Russia renewed its assault Wednesday on Ukraine's second-largest city in a pounding that lit up the skyline with balls of fire over populated areas, even as both sides said they were ready to resume talks aimed at stopping the new devastating war in Europe.
The escalation of attacks on crowded cities followed an initial round of talks between outgunned Ukraine and nuclear power Russia on Monday that resulted in only a promise to meet again. It was not clear when new talks might take place — or what they would yield. Ukraine's leader earlier said Russia must stop bombing before another meeting. Seven days into the war, roughly 874,000 people have fled Ukraine and the U.N. refugee agency warned the number could cross the 1 million mark soon. The overall death toll was not clear, but Ukraine's State Emergency Service said more than 2,000 civilians have died. It was impossible to verify that claim. Countless others have taken shelter underground, as Russia continued its bombardment. Another attack came Wednesday on Kharkiv, a city with a population of about 1.5 million, and a reported strike on a hospital in the country's north. A 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of hundreds of Russian tanks and other vehicles advanced slowly the capital of Kyiv, while Russian forces pressed their assault on the strategic southern city of Kherson.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals are not clear, but the West has warned he may be seeking to topple the government and install a Kremlin-friendly regime.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has decried Russia's attacks on civilian targets as a blatant terror campaign, while U.S. President Joe Biden warned on Tuesday that if the Russian leader didn't "pay a price" for the invasion, the aggression wouldn't stop with one country.
A Russian strike hit the regional police and intelligence headquarters in Kharkiv, killing four people and wounding several, the state emergency service of Ukraine said. It added that residential buildings were also hit, but did not provide further details.
A blast blew the roof off of the five-story police building and set the top floor alight, according to videos and photos released by the service. Pieces of the building were strewn across adjacent streets.
In the northern city of Chernihiv, two cruise missiles hit a hospital, according to the Ukrainian UNIAN news agency, which quoted the health administration chief. Serhiy Pivovar said and authorities were working to determine the casualty toll.
The attacks followed a day after one in Kharkiv's central square that shocked many Ukrainians for hitting at the center of life in a major city. A Russian strike also targeted a TV tower in the capital of Kyiv on Tuesday — and caused damage at the nearby site of the Babi Yar Holocaust memorial. Zelenskyy, who called the strike on the square in Kharkiv a war crime that the world would never forget, expressed outrage Wednesday at the attack on Babi Yar, where Nazi occupiers killed more than 33,000 Jews over two days in 1941.
He expressed concern that said other historically significant and religious sites could be targeted and called on Jews around the world to protest the invasion. "This is beyond humanity," Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, said in a speech posted on Facebook. "They have orders to erase our history, our country and all of us."Even as Russia pressed its assault, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that a delegation would be ready later in the day to meet Ukrainian officials.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also said his country was ready — but noted that Russia's demands have not changed and that he wouldn't accept any ultimatums. Neither side said where the talks might take place. As the war wears on, Russia finds itself increasingly isolated, beset by the sanctions that have thrown its economy into turmoil and left the country practically friendless, apart from a few nations like China, Belarus and North Korea. There have been some reports that Belarus is preparing to send troops into Ukraine, but Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said his country has no such plans. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, acknowledged the global economic punishment hitting Russia and Russians now is "unprecedented" but said Moscow had been prepared for all manner of sanctions, and the potential damage had been taken into account before launching the invasion.
"We have experience with this. We have been through several crises," he said.The invading forces also pressed their assault on other towns and cities. Britain's Defense Ministry said Kharkiv and the strategic port of Mariupol were encircled. A third city, Kherson, is under pressure, but there were conflicting reports of who controlled it. The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, said it had received a letter from Russia saying its military had taken control around Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant. According to the letter, personnel at the plant continued their "work on providing nuclear safety and monitoring radiation in normal mode of operation," and it said the "radiation levels remain normal."
Russia already seized control of the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant, scene of the world's worst nuclear disaster in 1986.
The IAEA says that it has received a request from Ukraine to "provide immediate assistance in coordinating activities in relation to the safety" of Chernobyl and other sites. Many military experts worry that Russia may be shifting tactics. Moscow's strategy in Chechnya and Syria was to use artillery and air bombardments to pulverize cities and crush fighters' resolve. Britain's Defense Ministry said it had seen an increase in Russian air and artillery strikes on populated urban areas over the past two days. Human Rights Watch said it documented a cluster bomb attack outside a hospital in Ukraine's east in recent days. Residents also reported the use of such weapons in Kharkiv and Kiyanka village. The Kremlin denied using cluster bombs.In the southern port city of Mariupol, the mayor said Wednesday morning that the attacks had been relentless. "We cannot even take the wounded from the streets, from houses and apartments today, since the shelling does not stop," Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying. Boychenko referred to Russia's actions as a "genocide" — using the same word Putin has used to justify the invasion.

Russia Aims to Erase Us, Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says on Day 7 of War
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Russia is aiming to erase Ukraine, its history and people, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a video on Wednesday as the seventh day of Moscow's invasion of its neighbor started with heavy shelling of the Black Sea port of Mariupol. Moscow switched to strikes on Ukrainian cities on Tuesday and appeared poised for an advance on Kyiv as the West tightened an economic noose around Russia in retaliation. But Zelenskiy, unshaven and wearing a khaki T-shirt, said the West's response was not enough, calling for more international support, including backing Ukraine's bid to join the European Union.
"This is no time to be neutral," said Zelenskiy, whose defiant and emotional tone in regular video addresses have offered his country support and leadership in the war, which he said killed nearly 6,000 Russian troops so far. Referring to the Tuesday shelling in Kyiv next to Babyn Yar - the site of a World War Two massacre of tens of thousands of Jews by German occupation troops and Ukrainian auxiliaries - Zelenskiy said: "This strike proves that for many people in Russia our Kyiv is absolutely foreign." "They don't know a thing about Kyiv, about our history. But they all have orders to erase our history, erase our country, erase us all." Ukraine's south-eastern Azov Sea port of Mariupol was under constant shelling and unable to evacuate the injured while Kherson, on the Black Sea to the west, was completely surrounded by invading Russian forces, local authorities said on Wednesday. "We all died again by Babyn Yar. Although the world has promised again and again that it will never happen again," said Zelenskiy. "Don't you see what is happening? That's why it is very important now that you, millions of Jews around the world, do not stay silent. Because Nazism is born in silence. Scream about murdering of civilians, scream about murdering of Ukrainians."

UN Says Ukraine Refugee Surge Soon to Hit 1M

Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
The UN refugee agency says more than 874,000 people have fled Ukraine since Russia’s invasion last week and the figure is “rising exponentially,” putting it on track to cross the 1 million mark possibly within hours. UNHCR spokeswoman Shabia Mantoo said Wednesday that people are continuing to stream into Ukraine’s neighboring countries to the west, with more than 200,000 fleeing since Tuesday, The Associated Press said. A day earlier, Mantoo had cautioned that the outflows from Ukraine could make it the source of the “biggest refugee crisis this century” — eclipsing the one from Syria’s war over the last decade. She noted that UNHCR had previously projected that as many as 4 million people might flee Ukraine, but noted that the agency will be re-evaluating its forecast. The latest figures show that more than half — or nearly 454,000 — have gone to Poland, more than 116,300 to Hungary and over 79,300 to Moldova. Another 69,000 have gone to other European countries and 67,000 have fled to Slovakia. Mantoo noted that the figure of 874,000 was an increase from more than 660,000 only a day earlier — and some 116,000 on Saturday, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Kremlin Critic Navalny Calls for Daily Anti-war Protests in Russia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny has called on Russians to stage daily protests against Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, depicting President Vladimir Putin as an "obviously insane tsar."Navalny called for protests across the country and abroad to signal that not all Russians support the war and show solidarity with the thousands of people detained in anti-war protests in Russia since last week's invasion. "We cannot wait even a day longer. Wherever you are. In Russia, Belarus or on the other side of the planet. Go out onto the main square of your city every weekday at 19.00 and at 14.00 at weekends and on holidays," he said in a statement published on Twitter by his spokesperson. Navalny said Russia wanted to be a nation of peace but few people would call it that now. "Let’s at least not become a nation of frightened silent people. Of cowards who pretend not to notice the aggressive war against Ukraine unleashed by our obviously insane tsar," he said. "I am from the USSR. I was born there. And the main phrase from there - from my childhood - was 'fight for peace'. I call on everyone to come out on to the streets and fight for peace... Putin is not Russia."Navalny, the most prominent of Putin's opponents, was jailed last year after his return from Germany following treatment for what Western laboratory tests showed was an attempt to poison him with a nerve agent in Siberia. He said he was sentenced on trumped-up charges. Russia denied carrying out such an attack and dismisses suggestions that Navalny's treatment was politically motivated. It describes its actions in Ukraine as a "special military operation".
Crackdown
Navalny's activist movement had already called for a campaign of civil disobedience to protest against Russia's invasion, but police have cracked down on demonstrations. Some 6,840 people have been detained at anti-war protests since the invasion began on Feb. 24, according to the OVD-Info protest-monitoring group. Navalny, 45, has been the biggest thorn in the Kremlin’s side for over a decade, persistently detailing what he says is high-level corruption and mobilizing crowds of young protesters in a country where the opposition has no meaningful power. But his appeal to Russians outside big cities appears limited and the opposition's ability to challenge Putin has been hampered by the authorities' moves to stifle dissent in the past few years and by the state's tight grip on the media. Many opposition figures are now in exile after being designated by the authorities as "foreign agents", a legal designation used for what authorities say are foreign-funded organizations engaged in political activity. Opposition unity has often been undermined by internal policy differences and squabbling among factions, including during mass protests in 2011-12 that brought Navalny to prominence but faded after a police crackdown.

Russia Receives Venezuela's 'Strong Support'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
In rare backing for Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday assured Vladimir Putin of his "strong support" in a telephone call, according to a Kremlin statement. In the call initiated by Caracas, the Venezuelan leader also condemned "destabilizing actions of the United States and NATO" and spoke out against a Western campaign of "lies and disinformation," it said. Dozens of people have been killed and nearly 680,000 have fled Ukraine since Putin ordered his troops into the country last week after failing to get guarantees that NATO will not expand its military alliance eastward, AFP reported. In the call with Maduro, Putin insisted the objectives of the military assault were to "protect the civilian population" of the Donbass separatist region and to get Kiev to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. It also sought to ensure a "neutral and non-nuclear" Ukrainian position towards Russia, said the statement. After the call, Maduro published a message on Twitter with a photograph of him and Putin, and said he also told the Russian leader Venezuela was "in favor of understanding and dialogue as a way to preserve peace." Venezuela, along with Cuba and Nicaragua -- all targets of United States sanctions -- are Latin American allies of Moscow. The United States and dozens of other countries do not recognize Maduro's 2018 reelection, which they say was fraudulent.During an interview in December, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov would not rule out Moscow sending forces to Venezuela or Cuba if diplomacy failed with the United States over Ukraine.

EU Approves New Sanctions against Belarus over Ukraine Invasion
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
European Union diplomats have approved new sanctions against Belarus for its supporting role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the French presidency of the EU said on Wednesday. EU diplomats approved new sanctions against Belarusian people who are playing a role in the attacks to Ukraine, the presidency said on Twitter. Sanctions will also hit "some economic sectors, and in particular timber, steel and potash," it said in a statement. An EU official said this week that one aim of the new sanctions on Minsk was to stop exports of any further Belarusian goods to the EU, on top of those already subject to EU sanctions imposed after President Alexander Lukashenko crushed protests following elections in August 2020. "These measures will be published in the Official Journal of the EU for entry into force," the presidency said in its statement, without indicating the exact timing of the publication. Some of the sanctions are expected to close loopholes of existing restrictive measures. The EU is already banning Belarus' exports of potash, a fertilizer made of potassium, and oil products. But diplomats said Belarus was still exporting potash to the EU via Ukraine, and has also boosted its exports to the EU of oil products obtained from coal.

China Will Not Join Sanctions on Russia, Banking Regulator Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
China will not join in sanctions on Russia that have been led by the West, the country's banking regulator said on Wednesday, adding that he believed the impact of the measures on China would be limited. China, which has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has repeatedly criticized what it calls illegal and unilateral sanctions. "As far as financial sanctions are concerned, we do not approve of these, especially the unilaterally launched sanctions because they do not work well and have no legal grounds," Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, told a news conference. "We will not participate in such sanctions. We will continue to maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with relevant parties," he said. China and Russia have grown increasingly close in recent years, including as trading partners. Total trade between the two jumped 35.9% last year to a record $146.9 billion, according to Chinese customs data, with Russia serving as a major source of oil, gas, coal and agriculture commodities, running a trade surplus with China. "The impact from the sanctions on China's economy and financial sector is so far not too significant," Guo added. "Overall they will not have much impact (on China) even in the future," Guo said, citing the resilience of China's economy and financial sector.

German Leader Visits Israel as Russia-Ukraine War Rages
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz kicked off a visited to Israel on Wednesday, briefly leaving Europe as the continent's largest ground war in generations rages between Russia and Ukraine. Scholz arrived in Israel Tuesday evening and will return to Germany later Wednesday in a visit — his first to Israel since becoming German leader — that was planned before the fighting erupted. He toured Israel's Holocaust memorial Yad Vashem alongside Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, The Associated Press said. His visit comes as Russia's assault on Ukraine continued for a seventh day, and as Western countries have rallied together against the incursion. The war has prompted historic changes to Germany's defense policies. The German government said Saturday it will send anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine — abandoning its long-held refusal to export weapons to conflict zones in a historic break with its post-World War II foreign policy. Berlin also announced it is committing 100 billion euros to a special fund for its armed forces, raising defense spending above 2% of GDP — a measure on which it had long lagged. In the decades following the Holocaust, in which Nazi Germany killed 6 million Jews, Germany and Israel have become staunch allies. The countries' Cabinets hold regular joint sessions, and Germany is Israel's most important trade partner in the European Union. But Germany, like much of Europe, is at odds with Israel when it comes to the Palestinian issue. Germany has called for a Palestinian state alongside Israel and opposes Israel’s settlement activities in the West Bank. Germany is also among world powers negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program.

Bitter Experience with US Is Reason for Iran to Push for Sustainable Nuclear Deal, Says Top Official
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
"Bitter experience" with broken US promises has made it inevitable that Iran will push to defend its interests by securing a "reliable" nuclear agreement, its top security official said on Wednesday, according to the Nour-news website. "Bitter experience with the US breach of promises and European inaction have made it inevitable to meet the requirements for a reliable, balanced and sustainable agreement," Ali Shamkhani was quoted as saying at a meeting between Iranian parliamentarians and the Supreme National Security Council. All parties involved in the talks say progress has been made toward the restoration of the pact to curb Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, which the United States abandoned in 2018. But both Tehran and Washington have said there are still some significant differences to overcome. Despite progress in the negotiations, the key sticking point is that Tehran wants the issue of uranium traces found at several old but undeclared sites in Iran to be dropped and closed forever, an Iranian official told Reuters.

Satellite Photos Show Iran Had Another Failed Space Launch
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Iran likely suffered another failed launch of a satellite-carrying rocket in recent days attempting to reinvigorate a program criticized by the West, even as Tehran faces last-minute negotiations with world powers to save its tattered nuclear deal in Vienna. Satellite images from Maxar Technologies seen by The Associated Press show scorch marks at a launch pad at Imam Khomeini Spaceport in Iran's rural Semnan province on Sunday. A rocket stand on the pad appears scorched and damaged, with vehicles surrounding it. An object, possibly part of the gantry, sits near it. Successful launches typically don't damage rocket gantries because they are lowered prior to takeoff. Iran also usually immediately trumpets launches that reach space on its state-run television channels, and it has a history of not acknowledging failed attempts. Separate images from Planet Labs PBC suggest the attempted launch likely occurred sometime after Friday. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did the US military and the White House. The rocket involved appears to have been Iran's Zuljanah satellite launch vehicle, said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who first noticed the attempted launch with colleagues. The gantry apparently damaged in the launch resembled another that was previously used in a successful launch last year of a Zuljanah. It remains unclear what could have caused the blast. The first two stages of a Zuljanah are solid fuel, but its final stage is liquid and would have needed to be fueled on the launch pad, Lewis said. “This just looks like it got interrupted, like something exploded,” Lewis told the AP.

E3 Group Rejects Compromising IAEA Independence amid Tehran Pressure
London – Vienna – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat
Tehran is demanding the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shut down a separate inquiry into suspected undeclared Iranian efforts to build a nuclear weapon and linking finding a political solution to unresolved issues at the Vienna talks.
At the same time, the E3 group, which includes France, the UK and Germany, announced that it does not accept derailing the IAEA’s work. Negotiators from France, Britain and Germany held a lengthy meeting on Tuesday with Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani in Vienna, said Stephanie al-Qaq, director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office. Kani had returned to Vienna on Monday with strict positions on lifting the sanctions off Iran, especially those crippling its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Moreover, Tehran is demanding the removal of a US foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation against the IRGC. An informed source told Iran’s government-funded IRNA that France is playing a negative role in solving outstanding safeguard issues between Iran and the IAEA, warning that this could prevent Iran and the P4+1 group of countries from reaching a final agreement during the negotiations in Vienna on reviving the 2015 deal. “The French are obstructing the settlement of the remaining safeguards issues between Iran and the IAEA, and are pursuing a purely political approach in this regard,” the source said. They noted that Paris has an important role in diverting the IAEA from its legal-technical approach to political issues, saying, “the settlement of the remaining safeguards issues with the IAEA is one of the important prerequisites to reaching an agreement in Vienna.”It is noteworthy that IRNA later withdrew its source’s statements. Al-Qaq, who is Britain’s lead negotiator at the talks, defended the IAEA, and said the UK, France, and Germany opposed interfering in its work. “We will always reject any attempt to compromise IAEA independence,” she wrote on Twitter.

Washington Rallies its Allies over Syria for 'Ukrainian Reasons'
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Washington will host on Thursday the envoys of allied nations in the Syrian file. The meeting will be an opportunity to "test" the allies and the extent the war in Ukraine will impact Syria given Russia's involvement. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs with responsibility for the Levant, Ethan Goldrich will host European Union, Arab and European envoys to discuss Syria. United Nations envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen will also brief them on the latest political developments there. The gatherers will hold consultations on the field developments in Syria, the positions of Arab countries that are open to normalizing relations with Damascus and the impact the Ukraine war will have on the country. Washington has notably invited Turkey to the talks. It had previously invited Ankara for the first such meetings that were held in Brussels in December. The invite is seen as an attempt by the United States to steer Turkey away from Russia and ease tensions between it and Ankara given Washington's support to the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces. A western official said the war in Ukraine demonstrated the extent to which Russia relies militarily on the Hmeimim air base in Syria for its world strategy. This raises several questions: Should the fighting in Ukraine turn into a war of attrition, will Russia still be able to remain as involved as it is now in Syria? What will happen to the current military coordination between Russia and Israel in Syria? What will happen to the non-collision agreement between Russia and the US in Syria?
As it stands, it appears that Moscow and Tel Aviv are committed to the de-escalation agreement with Israel continuing to carry out raids against Iranian positions in Syria. The Russian-western escalation in Ukraine has yet to lead to field tensions in eastern Syria, said the official.
This raises more questions: Will Iran fill in the military void in Syria should Russia be forced to reduce its presence there? Can Tehran offer more economic aid to Syria because Russia is preoccupied elsewhere? Can Iran make more economic gains if its signs a new nuclear deal with the West? Why did Syrian national security chief Ali Mamlouk fy to Tehran? The war in Ukraine has already left its mark in Syria with a drop in wheat and fuel imports. Poverty levels in Syria have reached 90 percent, while 12.4 million people, or 60 percent of the population, are suffering from food insecurity. The Syrian pound has also plummeted amid soaring food prices. Thursday's meeting is also set to tackle the normalization of relations between some Arab countries and Damascus in spite of the western sanctions against Syria. The EU had held a meeting in February to discuss Syria, reiterating its previous stances that it refuses to normalize ties with Damascus, lift sanctions and begin reconstruction before the regime launches a political transition in the country in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254. Washington has urged Arab countries, through various diplomatic channels, against normalizing relations with Damascus and against restoring its membership at the Arab League. The Biden administration has set its priorities in Syria: Providing humanitarian aid and working towards early economic recovery, maintaining its troop deployment in the region east of the Euphrates River to fight the ISIS terror group, supporting a ceasefire, and remaining committed to holding parties accountable for war crimes and the use of chemical weapons. The war in Ukraine will be an opportunity to test these positions. Some sides have called for keeping the crises in Ukraine and Syria and the Iranian nuclear file apart, while others view them as interconnected, which may lead to dealing blows in Syria for "Ukrainian reasons".

Egypt, Iraq Boost Cooperation Through Military Production
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 2 March, 2022
Egyptian and Iraqi officials held defense talks in Cairo, amid interest in boosting their cooperation in various fields, along with Jordan. Minister of State for Military Production Mohamed Ahmed Morsi met with the visiting Iraqi advisor to the Interior Minister, Lt-Gen Jaafar Falhi, and his accompanying delegation. The meeting addressed the historically long-standing relations between the two sides, highlighting the importance of cooperation between military production companies and the Iraqi authorities. The Egyptian minister reviewed the economic and structural reforms, despite the difficult circumstances that his country went through, pointing out that it did not prevent the government from taking bold measures and decisions. He explained that the success of these decisions was evident in the past two years, as the Egyptian economy overcame the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic. The minister noted that the authorities dealt with the pandemic efficiently. According to the Egyptian statement, the Iraqi advisor stressed the importance of Cairo's leading role in the Arab nation, and in confronting terrorism and maintaining peace and stability in the region. He expressed Baghdad’s aspiration to boost cooperation with the Ministry of Military Production to meet the needs of the Iraqi Interior Ministry. The Iraqi delegation visited several companies affiliated with the Ministry of Military Production, aiming to examine the industrial, technological, and human capabilities available in light of the mutual understanding on the necessity of pushing bilateral relations forward in various fields. The visit also noted the importance of strengthening the strategic partnership that benefits both sides. Last June, Baghdad hosted a tripartite summit including Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan, during which they emphasized the need to enhance cooperation, coordination, and strategic integration.

Statement on behalf of the Chair of the Freedom Online Coalition: A call to action on state-sponsored disinformation in Ukraine
March 2, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
As 2022 Chair of the Freedom Online Coalition, Canada leads a coalition of 34 governments united by our belief that the same human rights people enjoy offline must be protected online.
The unprovoked and unjustifiable attack by the Russian Federation against the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of the democratic state of Ukraine was preceded by a steady outpouring of fabricated claims and unfounded allegations online by the Russian Federation.
We have since witnessed a continued onslaught of disinformation orchestrated by the Russian Federation.
At an unprecedented moment in history, when people around the world are turning to the Internet to connect, learn and consume their news, the Russian Federation’s coordinated disinformation campaign has conjured false and misleading narratives intended to corrupt the information environment. This campaign aims to sow confusion, seed division, and erode trust in democracy. It ultimately puts lives at risk.
State-sponsored disinformation campaigns undermine peace, prosperity and individual freedoms, threatening to destabilize the fabric of our rules-based international system.
A strong democracy relies on access to diverse and reliable sources of news and information so that members of society can form opinions, hold governments and individuals to account, and participate in public debate.
The Freedom Online Coalition stands for the protection and promotion of human rights and fundamental freedoms online and offline.
We stand with the people of Ukraine, reaffirming that they should be able to participate meaningfully in society online and offline, free from oppressive practices such as state-sponsored disinformation.
We call for the cessation of the conducting and sponsoring of disinformation campaigns, and urge all stakeholders to take active steps to address the issue in a manner that respects human rights, democracy and the rule of law.
We call for the end of Internet shutdowns and the blocking or filtering of services. We also call for the Russian Federation to refrain from content restrictions on the Internet that violate international human rights laws. States must not unduly restrict, moderate or manipulate online content or disrupt networks to deny users access to information, contrary to their international obligations.
More than ever, social media platforms are powerful tools of information. They play a key role in the health of democracies and global stability. Social media platforms play an important role in the fight against disinformation—in the last few days, we have seen them make unprecedented and powerful decisions to restrain the Russian Federation’s attempts to misinform national and international audiences.
While respecting freedom of expression, Canada calls on platforms to work with the Freedom Online Coalition and to keep taking every step possible to counter state-sponsored disinformation, including that propagated by Russia Today and Sputnik channels online. We offer our continued collaboration to get this done in a manner guided by respect for human rights and the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.
Together, let’s send a clear message—the world order we have fought hard to maintain is under attack. Disinformation cannot be enabled, whether through state media, private media or social media platforms.
We support Ukrainians’ human rights and Internet freedoms, and will work together to counter state-sponsored disinformation, which puts democracies and lives at risk.
Endorsed by: Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 02-03/2022
Five Lessons Learned From Sanctions on Iran for the Ukraine Crisis
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Behnam Ben TalebluThe National Interest/March 02/2022
The goal of sanctions should be to impose costs on the Russian economy that either make Putin’s tactical and strategic objectives too costly to achieve, change Russia’s overall cost/benefit calculation, weaken its economy, or deter further aggression.
In the past three months, the Biden administration tried and failed to leverage the threat of sanctions to prevent a Russian invasion of the Donbas region of Ukraine. Following a recent order by Russian president Vladimir Putin, Russian forces attacked eastern Ukraine by air, land, and sea on February 24, with fighting reaching the capital just two days later. Washington responded with a tranche of sanctions, promises of greater economic pain, and delivering military aid to the embattled Ukrainians.
Since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the United States has increasingly relied on sanctions and other non-kinetic tools as weapons to adjudicate conflicts around the world. Scholars of sanctions have rightly pointed to the need for policymakers to better understand the mechanisms that underpin global trade as well as where and how U.S. sanctions have impacted those mechanisms as economic forces continue to take center stage in national security debates.
But caution from practitioners and derision from academics notwithstanding, the Iran sanctions case—both prior to achieving as well as after leaving the 2015 nuclear deal—offers key but underutilized insights into the strengths of U.S. economic sanctions. Subject to one form of economic penalty or another for four decades, over the past decade and a half, however, the Islamic Republic was targeted by an increasingly layered and complex web of sanctions. While Russia is a qualitatively larger and different target than Iran, the depth, breadth, and continuity of U.S. sanctions on Iran and related enforcement actions can still offer lessons to inform the debate over sanctioning Russia as Putin’s war in Ukraine continues.
The first lesson is that financial sanctions are among the easiest economic weapons for Washington to use and usually the most painful ones on the target. In fact, in an October 2021 review of U.S. sanctions programs, the U.S. Treasury Department cited the freezing out of Iran from the international financial system as one of the successes of its coercive and punitive economic measures.
Imposing an embargo on large, well-connected, and geopolitically influential countries such as Russia and Iran, both of which have long land borders, can be fraught with challenges. Financial sanctions, however, are considerably easier to employ, affect macro-level trade, and play to the relative advantages the United States enjoys in the world economy today. These sanctions make it exceptionally difficult to move trade-generated revenue around that is denominated in U.S. dollars or euros. After all, if the beating heart of the interconnected world of banking and finance lies in major Western hubs such as New York City, then it is the U.S. dollar and the euro that functions as blood moving throughout its arteries.
Financial sanctions can significantly reduce the accessibility of the target’s foreign assets, as happened to Iran’s oil export earnings, which was subject to additional lock-up provisions found in U.S. law. Beyond growing inflationary forces, as they did in Iran, financial sanctions can also significantly reduce a target country’s capacity to absorb foreign direct investment, as was proven to be the case with Russia since it invaded Crimea in 2014. These sanctions considerably slowed the relative rate of Russian economic growth.
Given that the Russian economy is much more integrated with Western economic structures than that of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the pain Moscow stands to suffer under a comprehensive financial sanctions regime would be much greater than what Tehran felt. Conversely, deeper economic enmeshment means that political resistance inside the Western bloc against such measures would be much more robust, as was seen in the debate over removing Russian banks from the global electronic payments system known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT.
Borrowing from the model employed against Tehran, U.S. economic pressure should aim at banning all Russian banks from using the SWIFT system rather than focusing on a select number of banks to be removed from the platform as was recently announced. Building on the sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia, blanket sector-wide prohibitions that employ secondary sanctions—which put non-U.S. persons and entities to the choice of trade with Russia’s financial sector or the United States—would also go a long way. Some U.S. senators have already astutely drawn the parallel between the secondary sanctions’ impact on Iran and their applicability here.
The second lesson of the Iran sanctions experience is more political, namely that comprehensive sanctions should be deployed decisively and in one go, not incrementally. While there is a strategic logic behind graduated escalation, a resolute and risk-tolerant adversary committed to maintaining, for example, a nuclear weapons option or an invasion of another nation may perceive the use of graduated economic sanctions as a signal that Washington is unwilling to use force to punish or change behavior. Starting low on the sanctions’ scale and working up means that an adversary may feel that Washington is buying time by meting out the punishment rather than risking the costs of attempting to deliver a near knock-out blow up-front.
As a result, Washington should treat the levying of sanctions as an opportunity to make a positive impression about American resolve by deploying large and far-reaching sanctions packages against target states early in the crisis. While some may believe that was the case for President Donald Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” policy on Iran, the timeline of U.S. sanctions tells a different story.
Despite campaigning against the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 and 2016, Trump decertified the agreement in October 2017 and only left it in May 2018, nearly a year and a half after entering office. The Trump administration then took 180 days to restore all penalties that were waived by the accord, and then used another six months to push towards removing waivers for the sale of Iranian oil. During the post-deal period, the United States continued to maintain several other sanctions waivers for regional energy sales, port access/investment, and civil nuclear cooperation. Starting in mid-2019 until it left office, the administration only then began refining and recalibrating the pressure on Iran. This means peak maximum pressure sanctions on the Islamic Republic were around for just under a year and a half.
Course-correcting from that experience, sanctions are likely to have their greatest effect when the shock introduced into the target state’s economy is large, sudden, and sustained over time. Incremental and conditional sanctions that contain carve-outs, multiple waivers, and lengthy wind-down periods to end foreign contracts absorb the shock factor of these penalties on the country and its currency. They also run the political clock on an administration that seeks to enforce these penalties. Concurrently, they provide time for the target state to adjust and begin to develop front companies and sanctions-busting networks. If Washington is committed to using economic sanctions to impose costs and change behavior, concomitant with the swift implementation of comprehensive sanctions, it should clarify the precise concessions and conditions under which its penalties would be lifted.
Building on that point, the third major lesson from the Iran sanctions era is that sanctions and any kind of economic pressure must be continuously assessed, maintained, and improved to be effective. While this may appear at odds with the previous point, continuous refinement is not akin to defaulting to a strategy of incremental escalation. Instead, it involves a habitual refinement of an originally broad sanctions program that held back little when initially deployed. Beyond that, continuous calibration and refinement of sanctions is needed because target states have both agency and an incentive to find countermeasures to circumvent sanctions using every tool available. If Washington is serious about the sanctions option against Putin, it must devote assets and intelligence upfront to monitor the impact on the marketplace and battlefield, as well as what Russia is doing to offset these costs.
This phenomenon is but one reason why sanctions programs have traditionally been likened to a game of “whack-a-mole.” Like any other foreign policy tool, sanctions could also have unintended consequences that require close monitoring to address. One early example was the relationship between sanctions and Iran’s move from being a gasoline importer in 2009, to being “self-sufficient” in the production of such refined petroleum products a decade later.
Much later in the Iran experience, Washington had to broaden out its oil-based sanctions to account for how Iran diversified its economy to grow non-oil export earnings that came from places like the growing petrochemical sector. By 2020, petrochemicals made up about one-third of Tehran’s non-oil exports, and were such a critical component of the regional economy that even saw U.S. partners in the ranks of major purchasers.
Adversaries, like markets and industries, are not static. In response to the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy, Tehran relied on a foreign exchange platform under the control of the Central Bank of Iran called NIMA to regulate the exchange of foreign currency among importers and exporters without the foreign currency moving through Iran’s financial system or accounts owned or controlled by the sanctioned Central Bank of Iran. This allowed the money to be transferred without touching the formal financial system, akin to a “Hawala” system but monitored directly by the Central Bank. This innovation installed a central monitoring system in the decentralized traditional Hawala system and allowed Tehran to alleviate its hard currency problem through more efficient use of export revenues by the private sector to fund imports.
Given how far U.S. adversaries are willing to go to bust sanctions, creativity should be treated as an element of national power and more welcome in the debate over enforcement measures. Bold actions, such as the seizure of Iranian tankers and forfeiture of their illicit oil cargos were a late but powerful component of the U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran. The further the United States is willing to go to enforce its penalties, the greater the transaction cost for the target state to continue its countermeasures. Psychologically, such moves signal that enforcement can be just as flexible and innovative as circumvention, thus aiming to deter future evasion efforts.
All else equal, the fourth lesson from the Iran experience is that multilateral sanctions are not necessarily more effective than unilateral ones. While this lesson does not aim to downplay the political and diplomatic costs of unilateralism and seemingly occasional irreverence for diplomacy out of Washington, it does aim to right-size such concerns given the risk-aversion of most large multinational enterprises and banks, the growth and importance of the compliance sector, the increasing use of U.S. sanctions, the position of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and other factors highlighting the outsized influence of the United States in the global financial system. While multilateral sanctions regimes can be treated as coalitions based around a “price-floor” interpretation of a perceived threat and what to do about it, reaching this consensus through international organizations like the UN Security Council or bilaterally with the European Union can be a lengthy and complex process that waters down sanctions and buy time for the adversary.
In the case of Iran, the unilateral sanctions imposed by the Trump administration were not less effective than the multilateral sanctions signed into law or imposed by President Barack Obama, which followed several rounds of UNSC sanctions. In fact, the takeaway for the 2018-2020 experience is that unilateral sanctions could be just as effective, if not more effective, and in record time. This is despite the skepticism of many U.S. policymakers and sanctions practitioners, as well as the efforts of the European Union to bypass U.S. sanctions. European governments went so far as to create a Special Purpose Vehicle for such trade, to no avail. When push came to shove, European banks and businesses broadly complied with U.S. sanctions regulations much to the chagrin and policy views of their own national governments.
In the case of Russia, European resistance against sanctioning Moscow had been stronger and better organized. But with Putin’s war continuing, considerable cracks have formed, and some European nations are reversing course by offering military aid, pausing contracts, and supporting sanctions. Rather than hide behind early European foot-dragging, as some former administration officials have criticized, now is the time for the Biden administration to lead on sanctions efforts, taking a page from the U.S. playbook on Iran and SWIFT from 2018.
There are reportedly even areas where Washington may be able to offset the political cost of any unilateral economic measures by supporting multilateral diplomatic measures that some of its allies already have underway. One example is the Canadian and European decision to close their airspace to Russian planes. As time passes and if Russia’s military operations succeed, as a result of geographical proximity, energy dependence, and pressure from varied economic interest groups, European countries may be more inclined to pump the brakes on sanctioning Russia. It is crucial for Washington to remember that should these governments pull a U-turn, it can still influence the behavior of European companies despite the directives of their governments.
Last but not least, is a bureaucratic lesson. Given the centrality of sanctions to U.S. national security, it is imperative that Washington work to support and expand its financial warfare capabilities to include fully staffing and funding elements in the Department of the Treasury including but not limited to the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. By way of example, the enacted budget for that office in fiscal year 2021 was $175 million, a figure dwarfed by the country’s $777 billion military budget. As Washington’s reliance on sanctions and related tools expands, its economic warfare headquarters should similarly expand and modernize to make sure the programs they oversee are fully serviced. Sanctions can never replace the U.S. military’s function in deterring foreign adversaries or the State Department in supporting diplomatic efforts, but they are an important, in-demand, and multipurpose foreign policy tool which complements other sources of American power.
To be clear, sanctions alone are unlikely to fully resolve the Ukraine crisis. But this does not imply a vindication of the argument made by sanctions skeptics in the Iranian, Russian, or broader contexts. At present, the goal of sanctions should be to impose costs on the Russian economy that either make Putin’s tactical and strategic objectives too costly to achieve, change Russia’s overall cost/benefit calculation, weaken its economy, and deter further aggression. These sanctions can support, not replace, broader American policy goals related to countering Russia, supporting NATO, as well as send a message to a wide range of actors about American resolve and economic power.
Not holding back on enforcement of sanctions against the Central Bank, pushing for a full removal of Russian financial institutions from SWIFT, imposing blanket sanctions on Russia’s key economic sectors, and exploring ways to deal with cutting off the Russian energy trade are likely to be the most effective coercive and punitive tools Washington has in its arsenal of economic statecraft that need not wait for a new multilateral consensus. The Iran case has proved at least that.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) where Behnam Ben Taleblu is a Senior Fellow. They both contribute to FDD’s Iran Program, Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP), and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). The views expressed are their own.

What the West should do now to help Ukrainians on the battlefield
Ryan Brobst/Bradley Bowman/John Hardie/Jack Sullivan/Defense News/March 02/2022
As Russian President Vladimir Putin escalates his invasion designed to topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government, Kyiv is pleading for as many anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons as possible. While the Biden administration on Saturday approved additional military assistance for Ukraine, there is more the United States and its NATO allies must do — and fast.
That should include expediting and expanding existing shipments of weapons, focusing on what Ukrainian forces need most and what can be delivered quickly. NATO members should not stop there, however. The United States should work with Kyiv to open multiple supply lines to Ukraine to facilitate the delivery of weapons and other supplies, while providing the Ukrainian military with actionable intelligence it can use to target invading Russian forces. To get ahead of the evolving conflict, the United States and its allies should also focus on getting Ukrainians the tools they will need for urban warfare against occupying Russian forces.
As we watch this tragedy unfold in Ukraine, the bad news is the Biden administration, Ukraine, and NATO allies were unable to deter a Russian invasion. The good news is Ukrainians are fighting hard and Western weapons are helping them defend their country.
U.S.-made Javelin and UK-made NLAW anti-tank missiles have proven deadly against Russian ground vehicles. Ukrainian forces defended themselves in 2014 with only “RPGs and it was difficult to destroy T-72 [tanks],” a Ukrainian military official reportedly said. Now, thanks to Western weapons, “it’s not a problem.”
The success of these weapons is encouraging, but they will be expended and lost as combat continues. Some experts suggest the Ukrainian Army will start to run out of ammunition in a week and may run out of Stinger missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles before then. Russia has not yet committed its full military might, so the Ukrainians will need all the anti-tank weapons we can send.
We should send all the small arms, grenade and rocket launchers, ammunition, night vision/thermal imaging equipment, rations, medical supplies, and communication devices the Ukrainian resistance needs to operate effectively and communicate securely in the brutal urban warfare likely to become more prevalent in the coming days. Small drones for conducting intelligence, surveillance, and even attack in urban fighting would be helpful, too.
However, delivering the weapons is more complex than deciding what to send. With aid flowing from so many countries around the world, the U.S. military should use its unmatched logistics capabilities to coordinate supply efforts.
A senior U.S. defense official said Monday there is no single unified body coordinating aid. In addition to shoring up NATO’s eastern flank, this should be a top priority for U.S. European Command. This materiel should continue to be delivered via Poland, but NATO should also work to open supply lines from Slovakia and Romania, as Hungary has disappointingly refused to allow lethal weapons to transit its territory.
It would be unwise to presume Moscow will not try to interdict weapons shipments to Ukraine once they arrive. We should assume Russian agents on the ground and Russian ISR assets are closely monitoring the border crossings into Ukraine.
Additional supply routes will enable faster delivery and help prevent bottlenecks at the border. Moreover, having multiple routes will reduce the risk of interdiction, since a single supply corridor would be more vulnerable to Russian strike assets.
NATO-operated NASAMS, SAMP/T, and Patriot air defense systems should be redeployed on NATO soil near the distribution points to deter Russian interference. The United States could transfer to Ukraine Avenger and M-SHORAD mobile systems to escort the shipments once in Ukraine.
To bolster Ukrainian defensive efforts, the United States and its allies should also provide Ukraine’s forces with real-time, actionable battlefield intelligence. The EU will soon begin sharing satellite intelligence with Ukraine and should prioritize timely delivery of the information so Ukrainian forces can act on it. This should include advance warning of major Russian military movements along with targeting information focused on Russian ground, air, and naval assets operating within Ukrainian territory or conducting attacks on Ukraine from the Black Sea.
Providing intelligence to Ukraine entails a number of practical challenges. Senior U.S. defense officials have stated the Pentagon has only limited visibility into events on the ground because U.S. planes or drones flying above Ukraine have departed.
However, U.S. assets can still obtain some intelligence that should be shared with the Ukrainian military whenever possible. Russian attacks along multiple axes complicate Ukrainian defense planning and mean better intelligence about their advances can be an exceptional asset for Kyiv.
Airborne assaults have played a prominent role in the war. If U.S. intelligence assets can detect future assaults, prior warning will allow the Ukrainian military to avoid surprises, better defend itself and inflict greater damage on invading forces.
At sea, U.S. air and space assets can track Russian ships and share this information with Ukraine in near real-time. Intelligence sharing should have two priorities. First, pass Ukraine intelligence on any amphibious landings Russia may be maneuvering to conduct. Second, share the location of Russian warships operating within range of Ukrainian’s limited ground- or air-based anti-ship missiles. Thus far, the U.S. has denied doing so. The Biden administration should reverse this policy and share this information with Ukraine using preexisting intelligence channels or new ones if necessary.
The bravery of Ukrainians in defending their homes is deeply inspiring, but American and European leaders should not be lulled into a sense of complacency. The conflict, unfortunately, is just getting started, and Russian forces will send reinforcements and use more devastating tactics. We should sprint faster than ever to help Ukraine.
*Ryan Brobst is a research analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Bradley Bowman is senior director. John Hardie is a research analyst at FDD, where Jack Sullivan is a research associate. Follow Bradley on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Russia, Ukraine and the West’s grand delusion of freedom
Clifford D. May /Washington Times/March 02/2022
Liberty must be defended or surrendered -- there's no third option
Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging a war of imperial conquest. That’s despicable but, from a historical perspective, hardly novel. Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great, Tamerlane and Attila the Hun are among those who did not think: “Maybe I should give peace a chance!” Mr. Putin, I submit, sees the world similarly.
Why do elites in America and Europe find this reality elusive? Because they cling to the grand delusion that there is an “international community,” and that it believes “No one wins wars!” and that everyone seeks “diplomatic solutions” to “address legitimate grievances” while rejecting armed conflicts in pursuit of territory, resources, and power.
A memorable example: In 2014, Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine for the first time. Then-Secretary of State John Kerry exclaimed: “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th-century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext!” I imagine Mr. Putin was amused, though perhaps not as much as when he heard Mr. Kerry last week express concerns about the “massive emissions consequences” that might result from the current Russian war on Ukrainians. As White House climate envoy, Mr. Kerry reached out to the neo-czar: “I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.”
What Mr. Putin believes he needs to do is rather different, and an odd coalition is attempting to ensure his success. On the left, Rep. Ilhan Omar opposes sanctions that could “devastate the Russian economy.” The Democratic Socialists of America has called for the U.S. “to withdraw from NATO and to end the imperialist expansionism that set the stage for this conflict.” Code Pink is demanding that “not a single bullet or gun be sent to Ukraine!”
More than a few voices on the right echo these views. I am at a loss to understand how anyone wearing a Make-America-Great-Again cap can be indifferent when it comes to Mr. Putin whose goal is to make America irrelevant — an impotent, hapless, has-been superpower.
Take J.D. Vance, author “Hillbilly Elegy” (a marvelous book!) and a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Ohio. Last week, he made an argument that is emotionally compelling and geo-strategically incoherent. “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” he said. “I’m sick of Joe Biden focusing on the border of a country I don’t care about while he lets the border of his own country become a total war zone.”
Which is the same as saying: “The current administration’s policies at home are a disaster and I want a foreign policy to match!”
A more thoughtful faction on the right argues that we should let Mr. Putin have his way in Ukraine — and in Europe more broadly, and in the Middle East and Latin America, too — so we can “pivot to Asia” and concentrate on the threat China’s rulers pose.
Among the problems with that: The rulers of Russia and China — along with the rulers of Iran and North Korea, as well as the rulers of Venezuela and Cuba — have been forming what you might call an Axis of Authoritarians. Their common goal: weakening and diminishing America.
You can be sure they chuckled when former President Barack Obama, in 2015, warned Mr. Putin that if he intervened militarily in Syria, he would end up “stuck in a quagmire.” Instead, Mr. Putin propped up Syria’s dynastic dictator (at a cost of more than 500,000 Syrian lives), expanded his Mediterranean naval facility in Tartus, and restored Russia as a major force in the Middle East.
They were reassured when America and its allies gazed with bovine passivity as Chinese Communists, violating their clear commitments, stripped the people of Hong Kong of their freedoms, all the while building militarized islands in the South China Sea.
They were even more encouraged by America’s chaotic and humiliating capitulation to the Taliban — and, by implication, to its ally, al Qaeda — in Afghanistan last year.
They’re now expecting American diplomats in Vienna to surrender to the much shrewder negotiators from Tehran.
If Mr. Putin succeeds in swallowing Ukraine, he will become more powerful, which will make him more valuable to Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose goal is to conquer Taiwan and become hegemon of Asia — a steppingstone toward displacing America as global leader.
Similarly, Mr. Putin will want to move on to become the dominant European power. He is apt to think: “Since the U.S. is prioritizing the threat from Beijing, wouldn’t this be a convenient time to strike a blow against a NATO member?”
Long-term, the West needs to learn hard lessons and change failed policies. Short-term, we need to do whatever we can to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who, when offered a chance to flee, tweeted: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
As rapidly as possible, we should provide Ukrainians with Stingers, Javelins, TOW missiles — whatever they need to defend themselves. And we should do everything we can to bring Russia’s economy to a grinding halt until such time as Mr. Putin’s troops go home.
Final point: There is inspiration to be found in the streets of Kyiv and the frozen fields of Donbas where a brave nation fights against all odds for independence, sovereignty and the right to choose its leaders.
We can stand up to totalitarianism and defend freedom as we did in World War II and the Cold War. Or we can leave to our children a world in which evil empires expand and imperial conquerors enjoy what George Orwell called “the intoxication of power … the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless.” There is no third option.
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a columnist for the Washington Times.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/1/russia-ukraine-and-the-wests-grand-delusion-of-fre/

Biden's 'Capitulation' To Iran Endangers Arabs, Middle East, U.S.
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
"The parties of the international community that are negotiating with Iran.... must realize that the extremist Iranian regime has not, and will not, abide by international laws, regulations and agreements, even if it swore and signed or pledged to abide by and implement them. The Iranian regime was founded on the... Khomeini ideology that adopts terrorism and believes in exporting chaos and destruction." — Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, Saudi political analyst and academic, Al-Riyadh, February 23, 2022.
The Khomeini ideology... has already brought destruction to Arab countries, including Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria. — Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, Al-Riyadh, February 23, 2022.
"Although the Biden administration pledged upon its arrival at the White House that it would not be a third term for former President Barack Obama, it is following him step by step. This is evident in the Biden administration's position on the Iranian nuclear issue. This position seems to be weak, hesitant and subject to Iranian blackmail.... In the end, the countries of the region will not accept being hostage to Iranian nuclear technology." — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Syrian political analyst, Okaz, February 23, 2022.
The most dangerous point is that the US administration "has ignored other issues in which Iran poses a threat to the region, including the ballistic missile program" as well as the terrorist militias. — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Okaz, February 23, 2022.
"These militias are Iran's arm in the region and they intend to spread chaos and destruction wherever they are. The [new] agreement is expected to unleash Iran's hand in the region, as what happened during the Obama era, which led to an increase in violence in the region." — Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali, Okaz, February 23, 2022.
"It is not surprising that Vladimir Putin went to the end in Ukraine after discovering that he faced an American administration that could not be more than an extension of Barack Obama's administration. The Biden administration can yell and threaten as much as it wants." — Kheirallah Kheirallah, veteran Lebanese journalist, Al-Arab, February 16, 2022.
In [Fahs's] view, not reaching any agreement would be better than reaching a new one. "The lack of agreement will keep the conflict with Iran confined to the great powers." — Mustafa Fahs, Lebanese editor, Asharq Al-Awsat, February 25, 2022.
"Biden has decided to acquiesce in Iran... to yield to its expansionist project, which ultimately aims to impose Iranian hegemony in the region." — Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Bahraini newspaper Akhbar Al-Khaleej, February 25, 2022.
"In other words, it means that Iran and its proxies feel at liberty to do whatever they want. We should expect that reaching a new agreement with Iran will mark the inauguration of a new era of escalation of the Iranian terrorist threat in the region. The Arab countries must prepare for this." — Sayed Zahra, Akhbar Al-Khaleej, February 25, 2022.
Most disturbing is what a growing number of Arabs are trying to warn the Biden administration about: that striking a new deal with Iran would not only embolden Iran and its terrorist proxies and endanger America's friends in the Middle East, but create calamitous turmoil, including a nuclear arms race "on steroids" in the region -- all of which would justifiably be blamed on the Biden administration. It appears that the Biden administration has chosen to ignore the likelihood of this terrifying scenario. It is a decision that is causing irreparable damage to America's credibility in the Middle East.
Moreover, as Arab analysts are saying in no uncertain terms, America and its Western allies are themselves in the sights of the mullahs in Tehran.
Worse, as with Biden's generosity to Russian President Vladimir Putin in extending the new START treaty and gifting him the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline (which yesterday filed for bankruptcy), it will not buy goodwill. It will only appear as weakness and accelerate aggression against the West.
Arabs are warning that the Biden administration's appeasement of the extremist and terrorist regime in Tehran would allow Iran's proxy militias to continue their attacks on America's Arab allies and massively destabilize the Middle East. (Image source: iStock)
As the world's attention is focused on the Russia-Ukraine war, the Arabs are continuing to express fear about the possibility that the Biden administration and the world powers will revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
The Arabs are warning that the appeasement of the extremist and terrorist regime in Tehran would allow Iran's proxy militias to continue their attacks on America's Arab allies and massively destabilize the Middle East. Dr. Ibrahim al-Nahhas, a prominent Saudi political analyst and academic, wrote on February 23:
"The parties of the international community that are negotiating with Iran, especially the P5+1 (the US and the other permanent members of the UN Security Council: China, France, Russia, Britain, and Germany), must realize that the extremist Iranian regime has not, and will not, abide by international laws, regulations and agreements, even if it swore and signed or pledged to abide by and implement them... The Iranian regime was founded on the [former supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah] Khomeini ideology that adopts terrorism and believes in exporting chaos and destruction."
Nahhas cautions that if Iran obtains a nuclear agreement that prioritizes economic, commercial and investment interests at the expense of the security interests of the Arab countries, "the destructive capabilities and extremism of the Khomeini ideology that exported terrorism, chaos, havoc and destruction to the countries of the region will be enhanced."
The Khomeini ideology, Nahhas pointed out, has already brought destruction to Arab countries, including Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Those who signed the 2015 nuclear deal made "major mistakes," the Saudi political analyst argued.
"They agreed to sit with a regime that explicitly declares its support and sponsorship of terrorism and extremism; they agreed to enter into secret talks [with Iran] without the knowledge of the countries that are negatively affected by the terrorism and extremism of the Iranian regime; and they signed an agreement that did not take into account the interests and concerns of the countries and peoples of the region."
By reaching that deal with Iran, Nahhas added, the US and the other world powers "implicitly accepted extremist political regimes and terrorist and destructive practices. They also accepted Iranian intervention in the internal affairs of other countries, the development of destructive weapons, and acquiring nuclear technology for military purposes."
Nahhas said that he believes that the talks in Vienna between Iran and the US and the world powers will lead to a deal that is worse than the previous agreement.
"The P5+1 group is once again moving towards rewarding the extremist Iranian regime for its terrorist and destructive policies, practices and behavior... This group works without realizing the direct harm to global security, peace and stability. This group needs to take into account the great danger that the extremist Iranian regime poses to global security, peace and stability. It needs to be aware of the great suffering caused by the Iranian regime's terrorism and extremism. It is necessary for this group to listen to the fears and concerns of the countries of the region about the continuation of Iran's nuclear program and to actually learn about the suffering of the peoples affected by the terrorism and extremism of the Iranian regime. The ambitions and policies of the extremist Iranian regime will cause further destabilization of security, peace and global stability if it is given more privileges in the nuclear and armaments fields. If the group does not acknowledge these facts, it will notice them when Iranian terrorism and extremism reach the countries (that are currently negotiating with Iran). The [Iranian] terrorism and extremism, however, will be more violent and destructive, given the nuclear and armaments benefits it will obtain from a new agreement.
Alarmed by reports of an imminent deal with Iran, Syrian political analyst and commentator Rami Al-Khalifa Al-Ali asserted on February 23 that the world will be less safe after the signing of a new nuclear accord with the mullahs in Tehran. Al-Ali wrote:
"Although the Biden administration pledged upon its arrival at the White House that it would not be a third term for former President Barack Obama, it is following him step by step... This is evident in the Biden administration's position on the Iranian nuclear issue. This position seems to be weak, hesitant and subject to Iranian blackmail."
Al-Ali pointed out that the Arabs have repeatedly called to make the Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction.
"But is the nuclear agreement pushing the region a step in this direction? The answer is no. On the contrary, the new agreement will increase tension and push for an arms race and perhaps a race towards possessing nuclear technology. In the end, the countries of the region will not accept being hostage to Iranian nuclear technology."
The Syrian analyst said that according to various leaks, the emerging agreement with Iran does not address the "negative points" of the 2015 agreement that prompted then US President Donald Trump to withdraw from deal in 2018.
"The duration of the agreement is still a negative point," Al-Ali pointed out. "The question is, what will happen after the end of this period? Will Iran be free to reach the nuclear bomb?"
The most dangerous point, he warned, is that the US administration "has ignored other issues in which Iran poses a threat to the region, including the ballistic missile program."
"This program is dangerous in two respects. The first is the ability of Iranian missiles to carry nuclear warheads, and therefore ballistic missiles are part of the nuclear program, and there is no sense in any arrangements that do not take into account placing restrictions on it... The second issue is the spread of these ballistic missiles in the region and the provision of them to terrorist organizations. These missiles are now posing a threat to international trade routes, as well as to neighboring countries that are supposed to be allies of Washington."
Al-Ali also noted that the negotiations held in Vienna did not address Iran's support for terrorist militias.
"This is not a secondary or marginal issue, but it rather directly affects security and stability in the entire region... These militias are Iran's arm in the region and they intend to spread chaos and destruction wherever they are. The [new] agreement is expected to unleash Iran's hand in the region, as what happened during the Obama era, which led to an increase in violence in the region."
The US and its Western allies, Al-Ali said, are mistaken if they think that a new agreement will achieve progress in the region.
"Instead, we expect an increase in the pace of terrorist acts and the growth of conflicts in the region... The threat will reach Western societies. If an agreement is reached with Iran, this will be similar to the Munich Agreement, which released Hitler's hand in Europe and wreaked unprecedented havoc on Europe."
Veteran Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah wrote on February 16 that the Biden administration seems ready to cave in to the mullahs in Tehran.
The Ukraine crisis, Kheirallah said, "exposed the weakness of the Biden administration, which appears ready to submit to the Islamic Republic."
"It is not surprising that Vladimir Putin went to the end in Ukraine after discovering that he faced an American administration that could not be more than an extension of Barack Obama's administration. The Biden administration can yell and threaten as much as it wants."
The US, according to the Lebanese journalist, has revealed its "impotence" everywhere in the world.
"Perhaps the most important thing Putin has noticed is that US allies do not trust it... The Russian president must have paused for a long time on American behavior towards what is happening in Yemen and Iran's aggression towards the Arab Gulf states. Whoever discovers all these American weaknesses can only work to benefit from them. There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin is a shrewd man who has manipulated Obama and is currently playing Biden."
Dr. Huda Raouf, an Egyptian political science teacher and researcher in regional and Iranian affairs, wrote that the Iranian regime has understood that the Middle East is no longer a priority for the Biden administration's policy. The Biden administration, according to Raouf, limited its view of the threats to American security to only China and Russia.
"With the sudden and uncalculated withdrawal from Afghanistan, we find that the Middle East is no longer a priority for American policy, which is what Iran finally understood... By looking at the developments of the Vienna talks, we find that the US intends to reach a reduced copy of the original 2015 agreement. So far, the Biden administration does not appear to have a comprehensive approach towards Iran. As long as the US does not negotiate with Iran about its regional behavior, it may have to build a framework with its partners and allies on their concerns regarding Iran even after the nuclear deal is revived."
Raouf noted that Iran feels that it is not being held accountable for its meddling in the internal affairs of the Arab countries.
"So far, it seems to Tehran that there is really no price to pay, as it has not been pressured about its actions in Iraq and its involvement in the wars in Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. These are the most important challenges that may face the region, and there must be a mechanism for solving them. Reviving the [Iran nuclear] agreement will not change Iran's regional positions, including its support for groups such as Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen."
Lebanese editor and political activist Mustafa Fahs also expressed concern over the impending agreement. In his view, not reaching any agreement would be better than reaching a new one.
"The [upcoming] agreement seems to be a new factor of tension in the region, and not a factor of stability... The neighboring countries, especially the Arab Gulf states, cannot accept a nuclear agreement without restrictions on Iran's ballistic project and its regional influence, as fears that the agreement will be confined to the nuclear issue will lead to an escalation of regional tensions and push Tehran to invest more in its foreign projects."
In such a scenario, Fahs said, the lack of an agreement would be less harmful than reaching a new one.
"The lack of agreement will keep the conflict with Iran confined to the great powers," he added. The lack of agreement may also suit Tehran if it refuses to back down from some of its basic demands. The lack of agreement removes the specter of a confrontation [between Iran and the US]. The proposed agreement will open the door wide to crises."
Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Bahraini Akhbar Al-Khaleej newspaper, also asked whether US President Joe Biden has decided to "acquiesce" to Iran.
"Any follower of developments and current events and the positions and policies of the Biden administration will inevitably arrive at the fundamental fact that Biden has decided to acquiesce in Iran; he has decided to yield to its expansionist project, which ultimately aims to impose Iranian hegemony in the region...
"This project is linked to the terrorist and subversive role played by Iran and the forces, militias and groups affiliated with it in the Arab countries, especially Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Through these terrorist forces and groups, Iran represents a direct threat to the security and stability of Arab countries. It is sufficient for us to see terrorist attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates by the Houthis [Iran-backed terrorist militia in Yemen]. This is the danger facing the Arab countries. What is important is that the issue of Iran's terrorist role in the region and the danger of its ballistic missiles is not at all on the table in the negotiations and does not receive any serious attention from America and other countries participating in the negotiations."
Zahra noted that the Gulf states had previously demanded to be partners in the negotiations, but their request was ignored by the US and the world powers.
"This simply means that there is an undeclared American message to Iran that the issue of Tehran's role in the region is not of much concern to Americans... In other words, it means that Iran and its proxies feel at liberty to do whatever they want. It is clear that the US administration has decided to succumb to the reality of Iranian being a nuclear power. It is clear that the US administration no longer cares much about the destructive terrorist role Iran is playing in the region and the capabilities it possesses that allow it to threaten Arab countries through its agents. We should expect that reaching a new agreement with Iran will mark the inauguration of a new era of escalation of the Iranian terrorist threat in the region. The Arab countries must prepare for this."
Clearly, many in the Arab world are aware of the dangers that derive from the Biden administration's anemic attitude towards Iran. These Arabs have alerted the world to the fact that they feel mortally threatened by Biden's perceived capitulation to the mullahs in Tehran and the destabilizing consequences for the region.
Most disturbing is what a growing number of Arabs are trying to warn the Biden administration about: that striking a new deal with Iran would not only embolden Iran and its terrorist proxies and endanger America's friends in the Middle East, but create calamitous turmoil, including a nuclear arms race "on steroids" in the region -- all of which would justifiably be blamed on the Biden administration. It appears that the Biden administration has chosen to ignore the likelihood of this terrifying scenario. It is a decision that is causing irreparable damage to America's credibility in the Middle East.
Moreover, as Arab analysts are saying in no uncertain terms, America and its Western allies are themselves in the sights of the mullahs in Tehran.
Worse, as with Biden's generosity to Russian President Vladimir Putin in extending the new START treaty and gifting him the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (which yesterday filed for bankruptcy), it will not buy goodwill. It will only appear as weakness and accelerate aggression against the West.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Ukraine Flies the Flag for a More Assertive Europe
Lionel Laurent/Bloomberg/March 02/2022
The yellow and blue of Ukraine’s flag, which was banned during the Soviet era, has become a powerful global symbol after Russia’s invasion. It’s been beamed onto landmarks from New York to Sarajevo, splashed across social media, and waved during anti-war protests around the world.
It has also done a lot to bind members of the European Union and the NATO alliance together, in a moment of welcome geopolitical solidarity after a pandemic that hardened borders and national interests. Sanctions are piling up against Russia, refugees are being taken in, business and political ties are being cut, and financial and military support for Ukraine is flowing.
As Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy heaps pressure on Europe to be more assertive, Russian President Vladimir Putin is triggering the kind of fear that smashes long-held taboos. The EU is supplying arms to a country at war for the first time in its history, using a financial envelope whose name — the “Peace Facility” — says it all. It’s not often that security takes priority over economic expediency. The union is waking up to a new normal of “permanent instability,” according to the German Marshall Fund’s Bruno Lete.
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And as the balance of European power swings East — where Baltic states feel emboldened after warning for years of Putin’s belligerence but also vulnerable to conflict at their doorstep — Kyiv is reiterating demands for the ultimate prize: Membership in the EU club. Fed up with knocking politely at the door, Zelenskiy is giving it a kick. “Europe must give Ukraine everything it asks for,” Latvia’s defense minister wrote in a Financial Times op-ed, citing Ukraine’s aspirations to join EU and also NATO.
Obviously, if there’s a time to dream big, it’s now. It is perhaps easier to visualize the EU’s flag one day billowing next to Ukraine’s than it is NATO’s, described by a former head of the alliance as a hell-freezing-over scenario. Some symbolic recognition of Kyiv’s European aspirations would be a worthy accompaniment of more funding and deeper ties — especially if it adds to diplomatic pressure on Putin.
But amid the idealism, there still needs to be realism: Not every taboo is going to be broken.
EU enlargement is not just a bureaucratic paper-push but a preciously guarded power that has been as divisive a topic as defense — not least after the departure of the UK and worries over democratic backsliding in the East. Ukraine’s 43 million citizens and commodities-focused economy would take years, if not decades, to integrate. Even as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen trumpeted that Ukraine was “one of us,” European Council President Charles Michel cautioned of “differing” views on the issue.
Nor is it obvious that the Europeans have fully worked out what kind of defense they want. There has been a lack of political will, concrete budget commitments and an inability of 27 countries to define their most pressing threats. The EU facility financing weapons for Ukraine is an off-budget, inter-governmental tool that won’t require any internal arm-twisting. We are still at the easiest point of the turnaround — the beginning.
Even without a full-fledged vision of defense, more spending seems inevitable. Defense company shares are rising, with BAE Systems and Thales up around 25% this month as achieving the symbolic level of 2% of GDP would see Germany alone spend an extra $18 billion, according to Jefferies analysts. Even if Sciences Po’s Julien Theron notes that the 2% figure is symbolic rather than a fulfilment of NATO’s wish list, an awakening is taking place.
And the willingness of the EU to confront its trade and energy ties to Russia is an important signal for a union with global dependencies that leave it vulnerable — the recent launch of a screening tool to monitor foreign investment from powers like China is slowly gaining traction.
The real limits to a more assertive EU will ultimately be set by governments and voters. What seems unifying today can create the opposite result tomorrow. The sight of American troops leaving Afghanistan in chaotic fashion, or French troops leaving Mali, are visible signs that an initially popular and necessary military response can lose support over time. The EU has also yet to feel the full economic brunt of sanctions.
It is, however, heartening that the EU’s power play is being seen, not just heard: A more assertive bloc willing to invest in defense with US support, confront economic dependencies that make it vulnerable, and find common ground among its members. It’s an idealistic flag, but one worth flying.

Russia’s Next Target for Intimidation Could Be Israel
Ksenia Svetlova/The Tablet/March 02/2022
As Moscow slides into global pariah status, it will want to upgrade ties with its closest allies on NATO’s southern flank: Syria and Iran
As Russia pounds Ukrainian cities and flaunts its nuclear weapons, there is little doubt that the implications of the war between Russia and the West will be felt globally—and the relations between states that prevailed only two weeks ago are unlikely to remain static. The International Criminal Court in The Hague may investigate possible war crimes committed by Russian leadership, while Western governments keep piling on unprecedented economic sanctions. As a result, Russia will be looking for alternative markets and spheres of influence, specifically in the Middle East and Africa, where it has become very involved during the last decade. While Moscow ratchets up military and economic pressure on Ukraine, using forbidden types of weapons and indiscriminate firepower against civilians, many in Israel fear that Moscow’s next move will happen in the Middle East—where Moscow is formally aligned with Israel’s worst enemies.
By Feb. 15, when the whole world was still trying to guess Vladimir Putin’s real intentions in Ukraine, his defense minister and confidant Sergey Shoigu had traveled to Syria, where he met with President Bashar Assad and inspected a Russian military exercise—the largest that Russia had held in the Eastern Mediterranean since the end of the Cold War. For this occasion, Russia transferred advanced weapons, including MiG-31s armed with hypersonic missiles, as well as strategic Tupolev Tu-22M bombers to its Khmeimim air base, positioning a potent new threat near Israel’s borders.
Just a few years ago, there was hardly any Russian presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Since the beginning of the Russian intervention in Syria, facilitated by the Obama administration to counterbalance Turkey and aid Iran, Moscow has reinforced its naval presence there dramatically. Although the Russian forces in this area are still limited in comparison with their abilities in the Black Sea, experts from the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies believe that Russia already has enough forces to present a potential challenge to longstanding U.S. and NATO naval dominance in the area.
As war clouds gathered over Ukraine, Israel became worried. Israel and Russia maintain tactical cooperation over Syria and run a deconfliction center in order to prevent Russian and Israeli forces from clashing. Since the beginning of Russia’s military involvement in Syria, Israel has been walking on thin ice, trying to balance its own security needs with the necessity of making nice with the Russians who now controlled the Syrian skies. A change in the Russian posture in Syria, particularly as America works to seal its reentry into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, portends a far less favorable and more dangerous calculus than the one that Israel has grown used to since 2014.
For a time, the balancing act went well. While the Russians did not prevent Israel from hunting Iranian war targets in Syria (as was often reported in foreign media), Israel refrained from commenting on Russia’s aggressive demeanor—even when the United States publicly voiced opposition. In fact, this arrangement predates Russian involvement in Syria. In 2014—one year before Russia became Israel’s neighbor on its northern border—Israel refused to condemn Russia’s annexation of Crimea despite some pressure from the Obama administration to do so.
But 2022 isn’t 2014. Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid first timidly condemned Russian behavior in a TV interview. He then announced that Israel will vote with the United States and EU countries against Russia in the U.N. General Assembly.
So what might be the repercussions for Israel of its public anti-Russian stance, however mild? There is no doubt that Russia is looking to flex its muscles in Syria, where it’s built an impressive military presence. As Russia slides into a pariah status in the international arena, it will want to upgrade ties with its closest allies in the region: Syria and Iran.
On the military front, signs of Russia’s new regional posture are already visible. During the last few weeks that preceded the war in Ukraine, Russia strongly rebuked Israeli activity in Syrian skies, while Israelis complained that Russia was jamming GPS signals in Israeli airspace. At the end of January, Russia and Syria started joint patrols along the Golan Heights and the Euphrates River. In Israel, this activity was interpreted as a sharp message to Jerusalem: Things in Syria might change soon, and fast. Since other countries like the United States and Turkey also operate in Syrian skies, the Russian message might be addressed to all concerned parties to let them know that Russia is determined to force them out of Syrian airspace and help Damascus reclaim its sovereignty there.
Yet other Russian messages were clearly directed at Israel. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Israel was still mulling its reaction, busy Russian diplomats found the time to rebuke Israel over construction of new cities in the Golan Heights—possibly in reaction to timid Israeli attempts to support Ukraine without condemning Russia too strongly. While Moscow has since signaled that cooperation with Israel will go on as usual, many in Israel fear that Russia, emboldened by its violent move on Ukraine and furious about global sanctions, will become more aggressive and assertive in protecting its interests in Syria, and pay less attention to possible Israeli responses.
Until recently, some in Israel believed that Russia might work together with Israel and the United States to push Iran out of Syria—under the assumption that Russia and the United States shared this interest in common with Israel. Nowadays, this kind of scenario (however dubious it was in the past) is simply out of the question. Moscow will need Tehran and Damascus more than ever, perhaps even more than they need Moscow. This development might mean more intercooperation between all three parties and a significantly more aggressive tone toward Israel. In turn, if Israel is not able to freely operate in Syrian skies against Iranian military targets, an emboldened Iran seems likely to try to further grow its military presence near Israel’s borders, raising the stakes in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
Another possible target for Russia’s military is the Eastern Mediterranean. If until now the sea was mostly seen as EU and NATO playground, today’s Russian navy presence might pose a serious challenge to Europeans and Americans—and by extension Israel, whose economy depends in large part on open shipping from its ports. Turkey might soon see new developments in Syrian Idlib, where pro-Turkish militants still operate, and 3 million Syrians find their refuge, which may create wider instability in the region.
While Russian-Iranian rapprochement in Syria seems almost inevitable, the future of strategic relations between the two countries is still a puzzle.
Until recently, Russia saw Iran as a problematic neighbor, an occasional partner (for example, in Syria) and mostly as a country that was best held at arm’s length. When Iran demanded acceptance as a full member of the Eurasian Economic Treaty (a Russian-led block that also includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan), Russia took its time to “consider.” And when Iranians offered extensive cooperation in trade and industry, Russia generally ignored these requests. During the visit of the new Iranian president to Russia in January this year, no important treaty or memorandum of understanding was signed, to the disappointment of the Iranians.
Now, Russia needs Iran and its markets more than ever before. For Moscow it might be the right time to expand the partnership, as the Iranians have been demanding. Yet if Iran signs the nuclear deal, brokered in large part by Russia, the roles of Russia and Iran may be reversed, with Iran—if sanctions are lifted—having a stronger and even determining hand in that relationship.
There is a loud anti-Russian camp in Iran that remembers well how Moscow ignored Iranian demands for a long time. Yet there is also no doubt that Tehran will be happy to receive the latest Russian weapons. It now seems likely that Iran will get the weapons systems it demanded a long time ago even if for some reason the nuclear deal is not finalized. Russia has nothing more to lose and it will have to seize every opportunity to continue to sell its weapons to anyone who demands them.
What’s on the Iranian shopping list? According to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Iran is interested in SU-30 fighters, Yak-130 trainers, T-90 tanks and—the cherry on top—S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems that Russia previously refrained from selling. Even if Russia fulfills only part of the Iranian shopping list, it will be very bad news for Israel. Until recently, advanced Russian missile systems inside Syria were under full Russian control. That might change as well.
The greatest threat that Russia poses to Israel may be in the expansion of its regional influence, especially in the absence of an effective U.S.-led security structure. With the exception of Lebanon and Kuwait, which denounced Russia, and Syria, a full Russian client that denounced the West, the Arab states are currently sitting on the fence, unwilling to put their neck on the line for either the United States or the Russians. During the last few years some of these countries, particularly the Gulf states, didn’t hide their frustration with American Middle East policy, which aimed under both the Obama and Trump administrations at diminishing the American presence in the region—and which under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden put a U.S. nuclear deal with Iran at the top of American regional priorities. In response, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all began purchasing Russian (and Chinese) weapons, and putting their relations with Moscow on display.
Russia has significantly expanded its web of relations in the Middle East, mostly due to the fear of some countries that they might be abandoned by the West. If the United States wants these countries to join an alliance against Moscow, it might have to rethink its regional policy—or else rethink its relations with Arab countries who might wish to continue with their current balancing act. Yet Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia heavily depend on wheat supplies from Russia and Ukraine. Rising prices on basic food staples and energy might disrupt stability in many countries in the region, creating more risks and insecurity. All of these developments might in turn have a negative influence on Israel and its attempt to build new alliances in the region—especially if Russia sees Israel as an American instrument, while the Americans see Iran as a partner.
There is little doubt that fateful events in Ukraine have turned over the chess board in the Middle East, as elsewhere. While risks for Israel are bound to increase, it will need—now more than ever—firm American support and a confident U.S. policy in the Middle East. A new American deal with Iran, which remains America’s regional priority even during the war in Ukraine, seems unlikely to provide those assurances.
*Ksenia Svetlova is the director of the program on Israel-Middle East relations at the Mitvim Institute for Regional Foreign Policy and a former member of the Knesset.

البرتو أم. فرناندس من موقع ممري: الدروس التي يجب أن يتعلمها الصديق والعدو من كارثة وتخبط بوتين
Lessons Learned By Friend And Foe From Putin's Debacle

Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/March 02/2022
Iran, Russia, China | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 365
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106721/106721/

Putin's war against Ukraine is likely to bring down at least one and maybe two countries by the end. For a war whose latest phase is less than a week old, some things are clear. The Russian invasion was blatant and undisguised, whatever pretense at finding an immediate, plausible excuse for war (versus longstanding grievances) absolutely failed. As Edward Luttwak memorably noted, Putin the "patient hunter" had become a "reckless gambler."[1] And unlike previous Russian actions, it was neither a short, swift coup (as with Crimea) nor a seizure of some border regions nor an operation done as if by proxies.'
In attempting to openly take over an entire, large country, Russia resembled more the United States going into Iraq than Putin's past aggressions, except that the Americans were able to get their action blessed by the UN Security Council (UNSCR 1441). China and Russia, Putin's Russia, voted in favor of a resolution that the Americans subsequently used as an excuse for war (France declared that it would veto a second resolution explicitly authorizing war). Russia had no diplomatic cover for this war, even a flimsy or exaggerated one.
Putin's latest actions are a far cry from the way that his two allies, Iran and China, have used to project power (the three held naval exercises right before the crisis).[2] Iran threatens outright war against Israel and the United States all the time. But when it actually wages war, it has used its ability to burrow into susceptible regimes or find local proxies to give itself some sort of cover. While Iranians fought on the ground in Syria in the service of the Assad regime (alongside Russia), in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and Gaza, it has mostly waged war – savage and bloody war – through intermediaries. When the Houthis fire missiles and launch drones at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, this is Iran behind the trigger, although Iran is ostensibly at peace with both countries. No one is fooled by this, but it is just enough of a fig leaf for those who want to look away, like the Europeans, to do so.
While Iran has burrowed into regional regimes to project power and wage war in the Middle East indirectly (while blustering about direct war), China has burrowed into regimes globally and into the global economic system, projecting power there while also expanding militarily and making its intentions for the "unification" of the mainland with Taiwan crystal clear. It even tried to do expand in Ukraine, making a move to acquire the important Ukrainian Aerospace manufacturer Motor Sich, a ploy scuppered by Ukraine in 2021 on strategic grounds and with American prompting.[3] Motor Sich later agreed to provide motors for Turkish Akinci strike drones.[4]
Russia's debacle in Ukraine will provide important lessons for Putin's friends in Tehran and Beijing on what to do and what to avoid. Patience, obfuscation, and misdirection are key to assured success in their expansionary agendas. The hegemony of the United States over the global financial system has been underscored by the Western reactions to the Russian invasion and this reality will be factored into their considerations. If anything, this will encourage both states to prepare themselves better to mitigate against Western economic reprisal in case of future crises. Russia spent a decade preparing to insulate themselves from this Western response and failed within days of the war's beginning.[5]
Lebanese Hezbollah's unofficial mouthpiece featured a remarkable column by its chief editor Ibrahim Al-Amin on February 25, the day after the Ukraine War began.[6] Al-Amin admitted to "concern" about Russia attacking a neighboring country but ultimately saw the war as a reason to "rejoice" in the hopes that a Russian victory would bring about the fall of the West. Such a fall would mean the rise of the Global South liberated from the fetters of the West, from the hatred and anger of the "White Man living in Washington, Paris, London, Berlin, Tokyo or Montreal." Meanwhile the party line in Tehran is that the West cannot be trusted to defend its friends (a message to America's Middle East allies) and that if Ukraine had kept nukes, they would not have been attacked.[7]
The devastating effect of the sanctions card used by the West against Russia is not lost on the Chinese government either. In remarks on February 25 blaming the United States as the culprit behind the Ukraine conflict, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying repeatedly criticized American "illegal unilateral sanctions," noting that sanctions use by the U.S. had increased ten times over the past 20 years.[8]
If America's enemies have learned important lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War, so have others. Doughty Ukraine's resistance has underscored the obvious fact that the best defense is what you can do yourself, not just relying on old allies and alliances. NATO states will boost their defenses but Ukraine and ongoing concern about American trustworthiness in the region will only deepen the intentions of governments in the Middle East, such as some of the Gulf states, to be able to defend themselves with the latest weapons, build their own capabilities and to rely on vendors from more than one country.
Finally, the ugly Russian war in Ukraine, and especially the resistance of the Ukrainian people, is, in a way, an unmerited gift to a Biden Administration seemingly adrift in foreign policy. If the Ukrainians had folded and Kyiv had been occupied in three or four days, the world would be having a very different discourse today. While not used in preventing war, once again the "silver bullet" of American foreign policy – economic sanctions – have been able to severely damage an adversary from a distance, especially because acceptance for such a step has been broad, in Europe and even in East Asia.
But the warning Obama's Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew had six years ago about the danger of "sanctions overreach" remains.[9] He feared that the more that sanctions are used, the greater the chance that foreigners will eventually find ways to do business safely outside the U.S. (and friends) financial umbrella. An America with a strong domestic economy, a revitalized domestic manufacturing base, and a sound currency can delay the day when that "magic bullet becomes a poison pill."[10] The Ukraine War has done many things so far, one of them is to reconfirm the enduring relevance of armies, nation states, and borders, as if there was any doubt. While the strong reaction to Russia's invasion seems to underscore the power of globalization, many in the Global South and East will see in it a vindication of the growing value of autarky.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
[1] Unherd.com/2022/02/vladimir-putins-reckless-gamble, February 28, 2022.
[2] Reuters.com/world/russia-china-iran-hold-joint-naval-drill-friday-isna-2022-01-20, January 20, 2022.
[3] Rferl.org/a/ukraine-seizes-motor-sich/31161801.html, March 20, 2021.
[4] Thetribune.com/ukraines-motor-sich-to-supply-parts-for-turkish-aircraft-drones, November 12, 2021.
[5] Grid.news/story/economy/2022/03/01/russia-planned-for-years-to-resist-sanctions-and-its-economy-is-crashing-anyway, March 1, 2022.
[6] Al-akhbar.com/World/331316/%D9%87%D9%84-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC?fbclid=IwAR0JOdCvPM4dmDQCG0m7GFPVLymkwBEDN-GaUPE_iqAL0Nc7-SQ_1mLPUX4, February 25, 2022.
[7] See MEMRI TV clip no. 9391, Friday Sermon In Garmeh, Iran By Abolghasem Tatari: Ukraine Trusted The West, Agreed To Nuclear Disarmament And Oversight — But U.S., Europe Did Not Protect It As Promised, February 25, 2022.
[8] See MEMRI TV clip no. 9392, Chinese FM Spokesperson Hua Chunying On Ukraine, U.S., And Taiwan: U.S. Is The Culprit Behind Ukraine Conflict, Must Not Harm Chinese Interests In Handling The Issue; Taiwan Cannot Be Compared To Ukraine, February 25, 2022.
[9] Carnegieendowment.org/2016/03/30/u.s.-treasury-secretary-jacob-j.-lew-on-evolution-of-sanctions-and-lessons-for-future/ivpl, March 30, 2016.
[10] Belfercenter.org/publication/grim-warning-against-americas-overuse-sanctions, March 29, 2016.

The UAE and His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Lead the Way Again by Donating $5 Million for Humanitarian Support to the Ukrainians
Edward Johnson/Gatestone Institute/March 02/2022
The UAE and its impressive Crown Prince might at this moment understandably be sensitive to conflicts. This year Abu Dhabi suffered multiple drone attacks, as well as attempted drone attacks, from the Houthis, a proxy militia of Iran, who for years have been trying to take over Yemen at the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, with, it seems, a view, to have Iran replace Saudi Arabia, its oil fields and its two most holy Islamic cities, Mecca and Medina.
It was the UAE, especially the trail-blazing leadership of His Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and his two extraordinary senior advisors, one of whom is his brother, Abu Dhabi's exceptional Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, that broke a seemingly hopeless stalemate in the Middle East by organizing the historic Abraham Accords, formalized on the South Lawn of the White House on September 15, 2020.
The UAE and His Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, once again, have not only "talked the talk," they have most generously "walked the walk."
His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, announced on March 2, 2022 a gift of $5 million in humanitarian assistance for the people in Ukraine.
The United Arab Emirates, situated in one of the world most dangerous neighborhoods and led by an exceptional statesman, His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, announced today, March 2, 2022, a gift of $5 million in humanitarian assistance for the people in Ukraine. Ukraine is currently under an increasingly brutal assault by the Russian army, apparently ordered to seize the country, evidently at all costs, by Russian President Vladimir Putin, already accused of war crimes as well as decades of atrocities.
The UAE's donation, reported by Gulf News, is being made through the United Nations Humanitarian Flash Appeal and Regional Refugee Response Plan "to benefit civilians impacted by the situation in Ukraine." It is yet another "reflection of the UAE's emphasis on humanitarian solidarity in conflict settings," noted the Emirates News Agency WAM. The funds, according to these reports, will be used to ensure the protection of civilians, and the "unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies and actors and safe passage for those seeking to leave the country without discrimination or obstacles as stated during the UN's Security Council's meeting on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine on February 28."
The UAE and its impressive Crown Prince might at this moment understandably be sensitive to conflicts. This year Abu Dhabi suffered multiple drone attacks, as well as attempted drone attacks, from the Houthis, a proxy militia of Iran, who for years have been trying to take over Yemen at the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, with, it seems, a view to have Iran replace Saudi Arabia, its oil fields and its two most holy Islamic cities, Mecca and Medina.
The UAE has asked that the Houthis, whom US Secretary of State Antony Blinken removed from the List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in February 2021, apparently to please Iran before talks started to renegotiate the faulty 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. Regrettably, the original deal, cancelled in 2018 by then US President Donald J. Trump, would have allowed Iran, at the deal's sunset in a few years, to possess an unlimited number of nuclear bombs.
Two days ago, in a vote greatly welcomed by the UAE, the United States agreed to the UN listing the Houthis as a terrorist organization. US President Joe Biden is apparently "still considering" that designation for the Houthis in the US, possibly as negotiations with the Iranians are ongoing in Vienna, Austria.
It was the UAE, especially the trail-blazing leadership of His Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed and his two extraordinary senior advisors, one of whom is his brother, Abu Dhabi's exceptional Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, that broke a seemingly hopeless stalemate in the Middle East by organizing the historic Abraham Accords, formalized on the South Lawn of the White House on September 15, 2020. The Abraham Accords are a warm peace agreement between the UAE, the United States and Israel, quickly followed by Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Kosovo. The agreement, widely predicted not to succeed, is, instead, two years later, universally hailed as an overwhelming success, drawing headlines such as, "Abraham Accords Paying off for Israelis, Arabs", "Yes, the Abraham Accords Were a Historic Success", and "A Year Later, The Abraham Accords Are Worth Celebrating", to name but a few.
Now, once again, as a peaceful, stable country -- in that regard no different from Ukraine -- and, like Ukraine, all too aware of how it feels to be under assault -- the UAE and His Highness Mohammed bin Zayed, in yet another dramatic example of leadership, are leading the way to help the incredibly brave people of Ukraine who are under the threat of unimaginable destruction. The UAE and His Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, once again, have not only "talked the talk," they have most generously "walked the walk."
Edward Johnson is based in the US and Europe.
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