English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 18/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Let love be genuine; hate what is evil, hold fast to what is good
Letter to the Romans 12/09-21/:”Let love be genuine; hate what is evil, hold fast to what is good; love one another with mutual affection; outdo one another in showing honour. Do not lag in zeal, be ardent in spirit, serve the Lord. Rejoice in hope, be patient in suffering, persevere in prayer. Contribute to the needs of the saints; extend hospitality to strangers. Bless those who persecute you; bless and do not curse them. Rejoice with those who rejoice, weep with those who weep. Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly; do not claim to be wiser than you are. Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all. If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all. Beloved, never avenge yourselves, but leave room for the wrath of God; for it is written, ‘Vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.’ No, ‘if your enemies are hungry, feed them; if they are thirsty, give them something to drink; for by doing this you will heap burning coals on their heads.’Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.”

Question: "Is Christmas a pagan holiday?"
GotQuestions.org?/December 17/2021
Answer: No, Christmas is not a pagan holiday. Christmas is the Christian remembrance and celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ. Christians believe that, in Christ, God entered the human race and so deserves the title Immanuel or “God With Us” (Matthew 1:23).
Even so, some say that various Christmas traditions have pagan origins, so the question is legitimate.
First, the pagan origins of Christmas are far from certain. The winter solstice, often tied with Christmas, never falls on December 25. Likewise, Saturnalia, which has also been proposed as the origin of Christmas, was never celebrated on December 25. Other Christmas symbols, such as trees and candles, may have had some pagan connotations, but these are so common in human experience that it can hardly be claimed that their use was ever exclusive to paganism.
Second, the meaning of any word, symbol, or custom is determined by current usage, not origin. Many words and practices have departed from their origins and no longer mean anything close to what they once did. For instance, the swastika has been around for thousands of years as a symbol of good fortune. It was therefore reasonable for the Nazi party to take this as their symbol, as they emphasized that they were the party to bring good times back to Germany, which was going through hard times after World War I. However, it would be absolute foolishness for a person to decorate his home today with swastikas based on their “real meaning.” The swastika has been so thoroughly identified with the horrors of the Holocaust that, in the current culture, it is a symbol for anti-Semitism and all things evil. The original meaning of the symbol is completely irrelevant.
Likewise, if you asked the average American to tell you about Nike, probably better than 90 percent would talk about a brand of athletic shoes and clothing with hardly any mention of the Greek goddess of victory for whom the company is named. In a Google search of the term Nike, you would have to sift through dozens of results before you found anything about the Greek goddess Nike. When you see someone wearing the famous “swoosh,” your first thought is of a modern company, not an ancient goddess, and no one would assume that the wearer of said clothing is a worshiper of the goddess.
Regardless of what the Christmas symbols may once have meant, their use today needs to be evaluated on the basis of what they mean today. To automatically associate candles, colored lights, or decorated trees with pagan worship is unwarranted.
If there are unbiblical practices in our Christmas celebration, then those should be forsaken. Feasting is biblical, but gluttony is not, so perhaps that is an area that Christians need to think about in their Christmas celebrations. Drinking alcoholic beverages is not forbidden by the Bible, but getting drunk is. So, a Christian celebration should not involve drunkenness. Giving of gifts is biblical, but going into debt or spending beyond your means is not, so Christmas gifts should be purchased responsibly. It’s good for Christians to examine their celebrations to make sure that they truly honor God.
Third, when cultures clash, there is always an attempt to change and co-opt language and cultural symbols. Paul had no problem co-opting a pagan altar in order to spread the gospel. Speaking at the Areopagus, he says, “Men of Athens, I perceive that in every way you are very religious. For as I passed along and observed the objects of your worship, I found also an altar with this inscription: ‘To the unknown god.’ What therefore you worship as unknown, this I proclaim to you” (Acts 17:23–24).
If what we know as Christmas originally started out as a pagan celebration, then it has been so successfully co-opted by Christians that any self-respecting pagan would be distressed at what Christians have done to it. Christmas celebrations are so completely the opposite of paganism that any suggested link between the two can be disregarded.
Christians celebrating Christmas are no more pagan than are churches who gather to worship on Sunday (so named because it was the pagan “Day of the Sun”) or who hold a prayer service on Wednesday (named after the Norse god Woden). The pagan origins of the names of the days of the week have nothing to do with the church’s weekly gatherings, and ancient pagan winter festivals have no real bearing on the modern Christian celebration of Christmas.
Imagine a second- or third-century Christian reflecting on his town’s celebration of Saturnalia. He thinks to himself: “The whole town is celebrating Saturnalia with feasting and giving of gifts. They are talking about ‘freeing souls into immortality’ and ‘the dawn of a golden age.’ I think this might be a great time to throw a party and invite my friends over to tell them how their souls really can be freed into immortality and the dawning of the truest golden age of all, the Kingdom of God. I think it might be a good idea to give them some gifts as well in honor of God’s giving us the greatest gift of all.” In this way, a celebration is “redeemed” for God’s glory and Christians are given a biblical alternative to the pagan day.
With every cultural practice, Christians usually fall into three different camps. Some simply accept the practice wholesale without any reflection. Obviously, this is unwise. Other Christians will simply reject it and often retreat into a Christian subculture. Finally, some will carefully reflect on the cultural practice, embrace what they can, reject what’s ungodly, and redeem what’s worth saving. Christians have been so successful in co-opting some cultural practices that no one even remembers what the original meaning of the practices was. If the origins of Christmas are indeed pagan, then this is what happened, to God be the glory! Would to God that it would happen to more of our social and cultural conventions and activities.
Although not written about Christmas, Romans 14:5–6 seems to apply: “One person considers one day more sacred than another; another considers every day alike. Each of them should be fully convinced in their own mind. Whoever regards one day as special does so to the Lord.” If an individual Christian does not feel comfortable with some or all aspects of the celebration of Christmas, that Christian should do what he or she believes to be right. He should not judge others who believe and celebrate differently, nor should the others judge him, when no clear biblical guideline is involved.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 17-18/2021
Guterres Calls on Lebanese Politicians to 'Come Together'
IMF sees 'progress' assessing Lebanon's $69 billion financial losses
IMF Examines Extent of Lebanon's Financial Sector Losses
UN warns Lebanon crisis exposes one million children to violence
U.S. Says Hizbullah Govt. Role Impeding Action on Hizbullah-Linked 'Terrorist Incidents'
Miqati Says Doesn't Want to 'Challenge a Lebanese Component'
Abboud: This is the Era of Judicial Resilience and Independence
Khoury Files Suit against his Dismissal from Port Blast Case
Hizbullah MP: No Essential Dispute with Aoun, U.S. Embassy Steering Bitar's Work
Ibrahim Says to be Questioned if Given Permission, Saliba Says Did His Job
Enemies of the Good/Michael Young/Carnegie/December 17/2021
The Lebanese judge who did not blink/Farouk Yousef/The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
Les folies d’un monde à la dérive/Charles Elias Chartouni/Decembre 18/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 17-18/2021
Tornado, Storm Death Toll at 90 after Ky Teen's Body Found
27 Feared Dead in Building Fire in Osaka
Latest round of nuclear talks ‘worse than they should have been’: Senior US diplomat
Weeks left to rescue Iran nuclear deal, Western envoys say as talks break
Iran nuclear talks pause amid frustration about pace
Baghdad, Iraqi Kurds work together to prevent ISIS resurgence
Many Forced to Leave Their Homes as Floods Hit Iraq's Erbil
Kuwait Says to Open Abdali Border Crossing with Iraq
Bodies of 11 Iraqi Policemen Found in Mass Grave
In sign of security chaos, Tripoli militias attempt to grab Menfi in raid
Tebboune’s visit to Tunis ushers in closer ties but no regional alignment
Plunging lira could deal final blow for Turkey’s newspapers
Israel Hunts Palestinians for W.bank Settler Killing
OCHA Reports Increase in Violence in Sudan's West

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 17-18/2021
The West and Its Old Illusion/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/December 17/2021
Could an end to the Turkey-Armenia deadlock finally be in sight?/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 17, 2021
Is there a ‘Joe Biden doctrine’ on international affairs?/Luke Coffey/Arab News/December 17, 2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 17-18/2021
Guterres Calls on Lebanese Politicians to 'Come Together'
New York - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 December, 2021
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on the Lebanese politicians to unite. This came in remarks he made ahead of his official visit to Beirut this week to show solidarity with the Lebanese people. “There is no way Lebanon can find the right track if the Lebanese political leaders are not able to understand that this is the moment, probably the last possible moment, to come together,” he told a press videoconference. “The divisions among political leaders in Lebanon have paralyzed the institutions, and the paralysis of the institutions, of course, leads to the impossibility to reach agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to the impossibility to launch effective economic programs and to create the conditions for the country to initiate the recovery,” he explained. Guterres stressed that the Lebanese must do their part of the job. Lebanon’s financial system collapsed in 2019 after decades of corruption and inefficiency, an economic crisis that has since spiraled amid political bickering, COVID-19 lockdowns and a Beirut port blast in August 2020 that killed over 200 people and destroyed large swathes of the city - and was the final straw for many. It defaulted on its international debt in March 2020, after years of political upheaval and economic mismanagement left it unable to service a debt burden that was then worth more than 170% of GDP. The country started talks with the IMF that soon broke down last year largely because Lebanon's central bank, banks and politicians could not agree with the previous government on the scale of the losses in the financial system. The Lebanese pound has lost almost 90% of its value over the past two years, food prices have soared by over 550%, and worsening shortages of basic goods including fuel and medication are making daily life a struggle. The UN said Guterres will arrive in Beirut on Sunday afternoon for a state visit. The Secretary-General will meet with government officials, including President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, as well as a number of religious leaders and civil society representatives. He will pay tribute to the victims of the Beirut Port blast and will also undertake field visits to interact with people impacted by the numerous crises the country has been facing. Finally, he will head to southern Lebanon to visit the UN Interim Force in Lebanon and tour parts of the Blue Line.

IMF sees 'progress' assessing Lebanon's $69 billion financial losses
The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
Disagreements over the size of the losses between Lebanon's government, central bank and banking sector contributed to the collapse last year of negotiations.
Amid ongoing talks on a new aid programme, the IMF is examining data from Lebanon's government on the scope of financial sector losses, estimated at about $69 billion, a fund spokesman said on Thursday. "I'd say there's been considerable progress in identifying financial sector losses," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in reference to the information submitted this week by Beirut. Disagreements over the size of the losses between Lebanon's government, central bank and banking sector contributed to the collapse last year of negotiations with the fund over a new loan programme, which is seen as essential to the country's efforts to emerge from a severe economic slump. Deputy Prime Minister Saade Chami said that officials have agreed that financial sector losses amount to "around $69 billion," though he described that as an estimate that could change. Rice said that the Washington-based crisis lender is "now assessing the government's announced figures, and we'll continue our discussions with the authorities in the context of the engagement." "An IMF team will travel to Beirut early next year to continue the discussions," he said. After defaulting on its debt in March 2020 for the first time in history, the heavily-indebted nation approved a reform plan and launched talks with the IMF. The nation has faced soaring inflation and the steep decline of its currency. An IMF delegation last week visited the country, and "had discussions with the authorities on the formulation of a comprehensive reform strategy," Rice said.
The IMF believes Lebanon will have to carry out fundamental reforms to absorb the financial losses and also restore confidence in its government and promote investment.

IMF Examines Extent of Lebanon's Financial Sector Losses
Agence France Presse/December 17/2021
Amid ongoing talks on a new aid program, the IMF is examining data from Lebanon's government on the scope of financial sector losses, estimated at about $69 billion, a fund spokesman has said. "I'd say there's been considerable progress in identifying financial sector losses," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in reference to the information submitted this week by Beirut. Disagreements over the size of the losses between Lebanon's government, central bank and banking sector contributed to the collapse last year of negotiations with the fund over a new loan program, which is seen as essential to the country's efforts to emerge from a severe economic slump. Deputy Prime Minister Saade Shami told AFP that officials have agreed that financial sector losses amount to "around $69 billion," though he described that as an estimate that could change. Rice said the Washington-based crisis lender is "now assessing the government's announced figures, and we'll continue our discussions with the authorities in the context of the engagement." An IMF team will travel to Beirut early next year to continue the discussions, he said. After defaulting on its debt in March 2020 for the first time in history, heavily-indebted Lebanon approved a reform plan and launched talks with the IMF. The nation has faced soaring inflation and the steep decline of its currency. An IMF delegation last week visited the country, and "had discussions with the authorities on the formulation of a comprehensive reform strategy," Rice said. The IMF believes Lebanon will have to carry out fundamental reforms to absorb the financial losses and also restore confidence in its government, and promote investment.

UN warns Lebanon crisis exposes one million children to violence
The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
"One in two children in Lebanon is at serious risk of physical, emotional, or sexual violence, as families struggle to cope in the country's deepening crisis," the UN Children's Fund said. Lebanon's spiralling economic crisis is causing abuse against children to soar and is putting one child out of two at risk of violence, the United Nations said on Friday. "One in two children in Lebanon is at serious risk of physical, emotional or sexual violence, as families struggle to cope in the country's deepening crisis," the UN Children's Fund said. A new report released by UNICEF showed that the number of cases of child abuse and exploitation handled by the agency and its partners shot up by 44 percent over the past year. Children as young as six are working on farms and families seeking dowries are marrying off young girls. The crisis has also led to a surge in domestic violence against women and girls, UNICEF said, adding that the crisis was also wreaking damage to children's mental health. The report said new threats against children were appearing such as "destitute families abandoning babies in the streets and children facing increased risk of abduction". "With stress simmering at home, a lack of regular school routine during COVID-19 lockdowns and a decline in social services, at least one million children in Lebanon are at risk of direct violence," it said. Lebanon defaulted on its debt last year as a result of financial mismanagement and corruption, yet successive governments have not enacted significant reforms to rescue the country. The local currency lost 90 percent of its value in two years and four out five Lebanese are living under the UN's poverty threshold.

U.S. Says Hizbullah Govt. Role Impeding Action on Hizbullah-Linked 'Terrorist Incidents'
Naharnet/December 17/2021
The presence of Hizbullah in the Lebanese government “continues to impede effective government action against terrorist incidents associated with Hizbullah,” the U.S. State Department said in its annual report on terrorism. “For instance, despite repeated requests by the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to gain access to private properties in southern Lebanon -- from which Hizbullah is suspected to have dug cross-border tunnels into Israel or housed or manufactured weapons -- the Government of Lebanon declined to permit UNIFIL to investigate these areas,” the report adds. Separately, the report said that despite the Lebanese government’s official policy of disassociation from regional conflicts, Hizbullah “continued its illegitimate military activities in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.”“Hizbullah continues to plan attacks and engage in other illicit activities around the world,” the report charges. It also notes that Hizbullah maintains control of “some informal border crossings” and is “widely believed to exercise influence at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport and the Port of Beirut.”In addition, several individuals on the FBI’s most wanted list or listed by the Department of State or Department of Treasury as Specially Designated Global Terrorists reportedly remain in Lebanon, the report says.

Miqati Says Doesn't Want to 'Challenge a Lebanese Component'
Naharnet/December 17/2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati on Friday warned that “any call for holding a Cabinet session without resolving the current crisis would be considered a challenge by a Lebanese component and might be followed by resignations from the government.” “That’s why I will not subject the government to any harm,” Miqati added, in an interview with a delegation from the Editors Syndicate. “The government is continuing its work and the contacts are ongoing to secure the resumption of Cabinet sessions,” the premier went on to say. Noting that the government’s resignation would be “the easiest solution but the biggest evil,” Miqati said such a step “would not lead to a solution.” “Resignation would lead a further deterioration of the situations and possibly to the postponement of the parliamentary elections,” the premier went on to say. Miqati also reassured that there is “full cooperation” between him and President Michel Aoun, noting that “the reports about disputes are aimed at stoking political tensions in the country.” Separately, the premier reassured that “there is an international decision on preventing Lebanon’s collapse and on halting the dire situations and the continuation of the current deterioration.”“There is a foreign and domestic umbrella protecting the government’s work,” he added. Miqati also revealed that he has called for “a broad ministerial-security meeting this afternoon to take extra executive steps related to controlling smuggling; combating the trafficking of Captagon and the rest of narcotics; ending the manipulation of the currency exchange rate; and combating the manipulation of the prices of commodities and foodstuffs.”

Abboud: This is the Era of Judicial Resilience and Independence
Naharnet/December 17/2021
Higher Judicial Council chief Judge Suheil Abboud on Friday announced that “this is the era of resilience” and “consolidating the independence of the judicial authority.”Abboud voiced his remarks during a ceremony to swear in 33 judges who graduated from the Institute of Judicial Studies. “Let us all be, new or old, unified under the banner of this independence,” Abboud said. He called on the new judges to “defend the cause of the judiciary” in the face of “attacks, unjust accusations and irresponsible remarks.”“We want a free and liberated judiciary that works in the service of the people… away from every bias, selectivity or partisanship,” Abboud urged. He also called for keeping “politics” outside of Lebanon’s courts.

Khoury Files Suit against his Dismissal from Port Blast Case
Naharnet/December 17/2021
Attorney General Judge Ghassan Khoury filed Friday a lawsuit before the Court of Cassation against Judge Randa Kfoury and the counselors of the Court's Sixth Chamber to “rectify the grave error they did” by dismissing him from the Beirut port blast case. Khoury requested the annulment of the decision “because of the grave errors it contains,” saying that “if adopted, it will lead to the disruption of the work of the Public Prosecutions all over Lebanon.”“The ruling will make every judge subject to recusal,” the Attorney General said. He noted that he is “deliberately failing to attend the sessions of the Sixth Chamber of the Court of Cassation as a result of this jurisprudence that violates legal principles.”

Hizbullah MP: No Essential Dispute with Aoun, U.S. Embassy Steering Bitar's Work
Naharnet/December 17/2021
Hizbullah MP Ali al-Mekdad said that the U.S. embassy is “steering” the work of lead investigator into the Beirut port blast Judge Tarek Bitar. “I can’t be naive and wait for Bitar’s indictment, and then defend myself,” Mekdad said in a televised interview. He asked why among all names, only “certain names” were chosen by the Judge. “We do not say all judges are corrupt or traitors, so when a judge knows that he is serving the enemy, then he is,” Mekdad added. The lawmaker assured that there is no “essential dispute” with President Michel Aoun. “Aoun is convinced that everyone should go to interrogation, including himself,” Mekdad said. “If Aoun endorses Bitar’s approach, he wouldn't have said that.”Mekdad also claimed that, according to reports, Bitar is preparing “a major file against Hizbullah and the Shiite duo,” and that “the decision will be taken before the upcoming parliamentary elections.”

Ibrahim Says to be Questioned if Given Permission, Saliba Says Did His Job
Naharnet/December 17/2021
General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim said that he “will appear before the court like any citizen, when the law allows it." “I didn’t get permission to appear before the court,” Ibrahim said in a televised interview. “We are all under the law and the judiciary but there is a law that determines the relation between the judge and the witness or defendant,” he added. Meanwhile State Security head Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba, who has also been accused in the Beirut port blast, said that the State Security has “fully performed its duty” concerning the ammonium nitrate shipment that exploded at the port. “The General Directorate of State Security and specifically Major Joseph al-Naddaf have performed their duty and have considered the ammonium nitrate to be dangerous from the very first moment,” Saliba said. “We have taken action accordingly,” he claimed, adding that he has appeared three times before the judiciary "as a witness and as a defendant."“My words were clear and convinced the judges,” Saliba affirmed. He went on to urge the families of the victims to “demand truth and justice,” stressing that “justice won’t be reached through a scapegoat.”

Enemies of the Good
Michael Young/Carnegie/December 17/2021
France’s intervention in Lebanon has not been without error, but its rejection of maximalism is a blessing.
In the past year and a half, French President Emmanuel Macron has intervened on several occasions to affect political outcomes in Lebanon. He did so in the immediate aftermath of the explosion at Beirut port in August 2020. He did so again in the government-formation process earlier this year. And he did so, most recently, when he sought to persuade Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Saudi Arabia had to reengage with Lebanon. Throughout this process, Macron has been severely criticized by what can be called “maximalists,” who have adopted a hard line on all matters Lebanese. Inside Lebanon, some people have taken the French president to task for dealing with Hezbollah and working within the confines of a corrupt system. Outside, particularly among conservative circles in the United States, there has been similar condemnation, especially of the fact that France is that rare European country that has maintained a dialogue with Hezbollah. It’s true that Macron stumbled last year in thinking that the Lebanese political elite would readily go along with his initiative to push for economic reform and the establishment of a government that would work toward this end. However, this should not detract from the fact that Lebanon is highly fortunate to have retained a measure of French interest, because no one, absolutely no one, considers the country a priority today. At a time when the Lebanese are facing a financial and economic crisis of historical proportions—and that is the assessment of the World Bank—such concern is essential.
What is surprising in the language of the maximalists is how one-dimensional it is, devoid of any strategic thinking, let alone an acknowledgment of how their proposals would only bolster Hezbollah and Iran. The only good news is that their views, for now, are not shaping policy. Yet this can change fairly rapidly, especially in the United States, where maximalists have considerable influence over the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Their mantra is always the same: Hit hard and worry about the consequences later.
One central argument put forward by the maximalists goes something like this: There is a Lebanese state and there is Hezbollah; the Lebanese state is controlled by Hezbollah; therefore, giving anything to the Lebanese state only bolsters Hezbollah. They have used this neat syllogism to call for cutting funding to the Lebanese army and for opposing any U.S. backing for an International Monetary Fund bailout plan for Lebanon. Such were the recommendations, for example, of a June 2020 report by the Congressional Republican Study Committee, a conservative group of members of the House of Representatives. The report’s section on Lebanon was almost certainly drafted by members of right-wing think tanks, and offered up a perfect rendition of the maximalist siren song. But is the syllogism correct? While Hezbollah does have great influence over national affairs in Lebanon and the Lebanese state, it also regularly faces sectarian pushback and corporate interests that weaken that proposition. Two recent examples illustrate this. Hezbollah has been trying for months, unsuccessfully, to halt the investigation of the Beirut port blast by Judge Tareq Bitar. The reason is that Christians, including the families of many of the victims, would consider this outrageous, seeing as how most of those killed or injured were from the community. At the same time, within the judicial sector efforts to derail Bitar’s investigation have been resisted by judges, a rare sign of the judiciary blocking political intervention.
A second example is what happened in Ain al-Remmaneh in October. Demonstrations against the Bitar investigation by supporters of Hezbollah and the allied Amal movement led to armed clashes in the predominantly Christian neighborhood, after some of the supporters entered the area shouting, “Shia! Shia!” At least one was of them was killed by a resident. But when armed members of Hezbollah and Amal took to the streets soon thereafter, they were fired upon. While initially the gunfire was blamed on members of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party, it appeared that it was the army that had intervened to prevent sectarian clashes, according to sources close to the institution. Hezbollah and Amal had crossed two red lines: they had entered a Christian neighborhood in an intimidating manner, then they had marched around Ain al-Remmaneh with their weapons. That the army had reportedly reached agreement the night before with Hezbollah and Amal on avoiding such provocations was seen as the reason why both parties were restrained in their reaction.
How does one explain the ongoing Bitar investigation and the army’s response in Ain al-Remmaneh within the rigid framework adopted by the maximalists? Quite simply, that’s not possible. Both developments reveal behavior that does not fit into the categories favored by those who insist on seeing Lebanon in black or white. To Macron’s credit, the French tend to think in grays, which is the color that prevails in Lebanon, a country marinating in counterpoint. Not surprisingly, gray is not a color that appeals to Hezbollah, which has increasingly taken on a strident tone as it has faced resistance to its project for Lebanon. Initiatives like those advanced by the French, as well as continued U.S. aid to the Lebanese army, all reflect a more reasoned approach to the Lebanese problem, built on a belief that, because sweeping transformations are not possible, outside powers must rely on incremental change. While some demand an end to Iran’s “occupation” of Lebanon, a worthy desire, Iran is too anchored in a major Lebanese community for such slogans to lead anywhere.
Today, the priority of countries opposed to Iran’s destabilization of Arab states must be to preserve and reinforce those parts of Lebanon that are outside the control of Tehran’s allies. Their efforts must also involve encouraging Arab states that have withdrawn from Lebanon, instead, to build up constituencies in the country, so that they can limit Hezbollah’s reach. That is what Macron has tried to convince Saudi Arabia to do, and he is right. At the same time, if Arab governments were to build up their own stakes in the country, they would oblige Iran to take their interests into consideration and accept that Lebanon is not solely an Iranian concern.
Lebanese sovereigntists may shudder at such proposals, fearing that Lebanon will be overwhelmed by outside actors. However, like maximalists, they cannot let the perfect become the enemy of the good. Today, Lebanese sovereignty is a chimera. Unable to implement desirable outcomes, sovereigntists must pursue achievable ones. Finally, there are those Lebanese in the maximalist camp who would do well to free themselves from an annoying form of ideological purity that has made them indifferent to the suffering in their country. In advocating for a tough line politically and economically, and doing so with uncompromising determination, they seem unaware of the fate of millions of people who have fallen into poverty. France and others have supported humanitarian aid—Paris’ coordinator for international support for Lebanon, Pierre Duquesne, was in Beirut this week—on the assumption that if the country disintegrates, this will encourage illegal migration to Europe, but, as importantly, allow Iran to strengthen its hold over Lebanon.
Macron is in the crosshairs of the maximalists precisely because he refuses to go along with their suicidal plans. Unlike them, he rejects the view that a Lebanon destroyed by outside pressure will somehow weaken Hezbollah and Iran; nor does he believe that a Lebanon free of Iran is a realistic objective, therefore that he must refuse to speak to Iranian officials about the country. Macron doesn’t accept that Hezbollah controls all dimensions of Lebanon and its state, and therefore has looked for openings to water down the party’s sway; and he doesn’t think that a Lebanon abandoned by it Arab brethren is one that will be able to limit Iran’s and Hezbollah’s activities. These are all perfectly reasonable conclusions, and the fact that the maximalists reject them shows just how out of touch they are with Lebanon’s realities. The French approach has been imperfect, but it has remained sensible and defendable. The Lebanese should welcome the fact that there is still someone on the world stage interested in preserving their country, often more than they are themselves.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

The Lebanese judge who did not blink
Farouk Yousef/The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
The power of impunity is not just an idea. It is an institution based on facts on the ground and it is more real than all state institutions in Lebanon and Iraq.
In Lebanon, there is an independent judiciary. But the independence of the judges is not absolute. This is because it is well-known in Lebanon that the courts shelve their cases when what is called civil peace is at stake. On the basis of this understanding, there is a fourth branch of power that relies upon the concept of impunity. Thus, one can understand the violent shock caused by Judge Tarek Bitar’s behaviour when he summoned MPs and former ministers from among the followers of Hezbollah to appear bef
In Lebanon, there is an independent judiciary. But the independence of the judges is not absolute. This is because it is well-known in Lebanon that the courts shelve their cases when what is called civil peace is at stake. On the basis of this understand
In Lebanon, there is an independent judiciary. But the independence of the judges is not absolute. This is because it is well-known in Lebanon that the courts shelve their cases when what is called civil peace is at stake.
On the basis of this understanding, there is a fourth branch of power that relies upon the concept of impunity. Thus, one can understand the violent shock caused by Judge Tarek Bitar’s behaviour when he summoned MPs and former ministers from among the followers of Hezbollah to appear before the judiciary as he attempted to complete the probe into the port of Beirut blast of August 4, 2020. Bitar swerved from an unwritten rule that is the norm in Lebanese politics. I do not think that he was ignorant of this rule, nor did he fail to appreciate the danger of crossing a red line that Hezbollah has drawn. As the dominant party, Hezbollah cannot afford to ignore this kind of infringement nor allow it. The public being fully aware of Hezbollah’s responsibility for what happened, the appearance of members of the party before the judiciary, would be tantamount to recognising the existence of an authority that is above that of Hezbollah, a party that claims impunity for itself.
In the past, the authority that claims such impunity triumphed over the judiciary because the judges usually discharge themselves from the case and shelve the papers before news of the issue at hand reaches the public. But Bitar was obstinate. He decided to speak out about the existence of an authority that claims impunity for itself. That authority pretends to be a special case even if it is behind the killing of hundreds of Lebanese, demolishing half of historic Beirut, destroying Lebanon's reputation and cancelling the world's political and economic confidence in the country. This is a nation that kills its own children for a shipment of ammonium nitrate which gangs use in their paid-for wars. Bitar's unforgivable sin was that he digressed from the script of the Lebanese melodrama featuring the suffering, torment and oppression of a people taken hostage. The historical quota system ended up enslaving the people and making them into a group of subjects who are at the whim of the system. If the political parties that matter are satisfied, then people will live, but if one or more of these parties is unhappy, then people will face death by civil war.
Hassan Nasrallah once again told the Lebanese about the one hundred thousand fighters who are Hezbollah soldiers. Bitar was alone in the face of that army. Blindfolded justice was there, too. And there was a whole people standing behind the man who said “no” to an authority invented by these parties, which the Lebanese accepted for decades as a suicide noose was being tightened around their necks. Acceptance of that reality paved the way for the acceptance of the crime whose perpetrators are not to be unmasked for fear of civil war. How many crimes have been committed against the Lebanese while their perpetrators were not prosecuted out of concern for civil peace? The power of impunity has turned the Lebanese into victims of political party bullying. Not everyone who commits a crime in Lebanon can be prosecuted by the judiciary. There is an authority that is higher than the three well-known branches of power. That authority can protect criminals and make delivering justice to the victims a mere paragraph in any political dialogue.
It seems that the Lebanese experience in this field has been transferred to Iraq with the help of an Iranian magician's wand. This was evident in the defeats Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi suffered in his battles with the militias. Whenever militia members were caught red-handed, after they assassinated an activist or fired rockets at residential neighbourhoods, the militias released them by force before they appeared in court. As for the person accused of killing the activist and writer Hisham al-Hashemi, who has actually been brought to court, examination of his case was postponed until the results of the legislative elections are finally approved. If the parties are excluded from power, the judiciary will pronounce its verdict, but if the parties regain their influence, the criminal file will be closed. That is because the power of impunity supersedes all else.
The power of impunity is not just an idea. It is an institution based on facts on the ground, and it is more real than all state institutions in Lebanon and Iraq.

شارل الياس شرتوني: حماقات عالم متهاو
Les folies d’un monde à la dérive
Charles Elias Chartouni/Decembre 18/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/104879/104879/
Israël reprend le bombardement des sites de production d’armement chimique en Syrie, le régime syrien ajoute à son bilan d’État meurtrier, son nouveau statut d’État narco-trafiquant, et les zones qu’il contrôle servent désormais de friches à la criminalité organisée, de plateforme à la politique de subversion du régime iranien et ses relais géopolitiques libanais gérés par le Hezbollah, et de promontoire à la Machtpolitik russe et turque. Nous avons là affaire au cas typique des "conflits gelés" illustré par la politique russe à l’endroit de la Géorgie et de l’Ukraine, et des ersatz étatiques créés en guise de prothèse impériale (Ossétie, Abkhazie, Crimée, Donbass…). La prolifération de ces irrégularités mettent en relief l’architecture inédite de la nouvelle guerre froide qui s’articule au croisement des crises et des conflits générés par des États fragiles et des dictatures qui perdurent leurs effets destructeurs en perpétuant les verrouillages, gérant les abcès de fixation, et reproduisant les conflits dans la durée.
Le modèle russe incarné par le régime Poutine est à l’origine de cette configuration des "conflits gelés" où des dictatures régentées par des voyous se donnent pour but de générer et gérer des zones de conflit, d’entretenir des friches de criminalité organisée et de terrorisme, et des états d’instabilité endémique, comme c’est le cas en Syrie, en Iraq, au Yémen et au Liban, par l’entremise du Hezbollah, des mouvances du terrorisme islamiste, des organisations palestiniennes et des hordes fascistes de tout acabit. Le redémarrage de la production chimique létale par le régime syrien, la dissémination des sites logistiques et des champs opérationnels sur l’ensemble des territoires libanais et syrien, la coordination entre les réseaux de terreur, de crime organisé, et de sabotage opérants sur des interfaces géopolitiques multiples (syro-libanais, syro-israélien, libano-israélien) et l’instrumentalisation des confinements géopolitiques palestiniens (Hamas, FPLP, FDLP, …), fournissent, somme toute, des répliques à des schémas antérieurs de conflits caractéristiques de la guerre froide et ses modes de pilotage par procuration, via les mouvements terroristes marxistes.
Il est impossible de mettre en place des dynamiques de pacification et de reconstruction étatique avec des acteurs ressortants à la criminalité organisée, sur des schémas de société de "voyous collectifs" et des modèles de délinquance érigés en instances de socialisation, et des jachères servant de terreau à des conflits sans fin. L’intérim mafieux qu’est le régime syrien, la destruction du Liban et sa mise en remorque iranienne par la voie du Hezbollah, et l’émergence des nouveaux glacis de la guerre froide sous la forme des "conflits gelés", des pourrissements de longue durée, de manipulation des enjeux et des acteurs positionnés sur des axes contrastés, et des apories de la reconstruction étatique et civique, nous renvoient à des impasses de tous ordres et des conflits sans repères. Les vides stratégiques gagnent du terrain et sont doublés par l’absence de repères et la violence, comme uniques réponses aux décompositions irréversibles d’un monde éclaté.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 17-18/2021
Tornado, Storm Death Toll at 90 after Ky Teen's Body Found
Associated Press/December 17/2021
A Kentucky neighborhood ravaged by a tornado by got more bad news Thursday: the body of a missing teenager was found. Nyssa Brown was the seventh member of her family to die in the tornado that hit Bowling Green last week. Warren County coroner Kevin Kirby said the 13-year-old's body was found Thursday morning in a wooded area near her subdivision. The girl's parents, three siblings ranging in age from 4 to 16, and a grandmother also died in the tornado. According to Kirby, eight children were among the 12 victims who died on a single street, Moss Creek Avenue. Also among the dozen were five relatives from another family. Overall, there were 17 storm-related fatalities in Warren County, Kirby said. The teen's death pushed the total of storm-related casualties in five states to 90, including 76 in Kentucky.

27 Feared Dead in Building Fire in Osaka
Associated Press/December 17/2021
Twenty-seven people were feared dead after a fire broke out in a building in Osaka in western Japan, fire department officials said Friday, and police were investigating arson as a possible cause. The fire started on the fourth floor of an eight-story building in the shopping and entertainment area of Kitashinchi, Osaka city fire department official Akira Kishimoto said. Twenty-eight people were affected, 27 of whom were found in a state of cardiac arrest, Kishimoto said. All of them have since been taken to nearby hospitals. Four people have been pronounced dead, NHK national television and other media reported, but Japanese authorities declined to confirm. The building houses an internal medicine clinic, an English language school and other businesses. Many of the victims are believed to be visitors at the clinic on the fourth floor, fire department officials said. The cause of the fire and other details were not immediately known. Osaka police said they were investigating to determine whether the fire was caused by arson or an accident. Witnesses saw a man carrying a paper bag from which an unidentified liquid was dripping and police were looking for the man, according to media reports, which police declined to confirm. People on other floors of the building were believed to have been safely evacuated, Kishimoto said. NHK footage showed dozens of fire engines and police vehicles on the street near the building, with onlookers watching the development from across the street. NHK quoted a witness saying she heard a woman's voice coming from the fourth floor asking for help. Another witness told TV Asahi he saw orange flames and gray smoke coming out of windows on the fourth floor of the building when he stepped outside after hearing a commotion. Another bystander told TBS television that a number of people taken out of the building were covered with blue tarps and seemed lifeless. He said he saw one woman who was alive being rescued through a window. In all, 70 fire engines were mobilized to fight the fire, which was mostly extinguished within about 30 minutes of an emergency call, officials said.

Latest round of nuclear talks ‘worse than they should have been’: Senior US diplomat
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/ 18 December ,2021
The seventh round of indirect talks between the US and Iran on the 2015 nuclear deal was “better than it might have been, but worse than it should have been,” a senior State Department official said Friday. “But I also caution that we should curb enthusiasm because we’re now at best where we were last June,” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters. The official also expressed surprise that Iran chose to suspend the talks on Friday, held in Vienna. “Regardless of whatever progress was made, the pace at which we are moving” is not sufficient, the official added. Nevertheless, the official said, again, that the US was prepared to continue negotiations to reach a deal. “The choice really is in Iran’s hands whether it chooses to accelerate its program or… whether it chooses to negotiate seriously and realistically,” the official said. Earlier, European officials and the European Union envoy Enrique Mora said time was running out on reaching a deal to reactivate the JCPOA. And Germany, France and the United Kingdom also expressed their disappointment after Iran asked to adjourn the latest round of talks on Friday. “There has been some technical progress in the last 24 hours, but this only takes us back nearer to where the talks stood in June,” they said, referring to the monthslong stalling by Iran after they elected a new president. Also, on Friday, senior White House officials warned that the breakout time for Iran to develop a nuclear deal had reached alarming levels. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the talks were “not going well in the sense that we do not yet have a pathway back” into the JCPOA. Read more: Weeks left to rescue Iran nuclear deal, Western envoys say as talks break Get the latest stories from AlArabiya on Google News

Weeks left to rescue Iran nuclear deal, Western envoys say as talks break
Reuters/17 December ,2021
Negotiators at indirect talks between Iran and the United States have just weeks to reach an agreement on rescuing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, European powers and the talks’ coordinator said as negotiations adjourned on Friday for at least 10 days. The talks have made little discernible progress since they resumed more than two weeks ago for the first time since Iran’s hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, was elected in June. Tehran’s envoys have sought changes to the outline of an agreement that had taken shape in six previous rounds of talks, leaving the negotiations largely deadlocked while Western powers warn that time is running out to rein in Iran’s fast-advancing nuclear activities. “We don’t have months, we rather have weeks to have an agreement,” European Union envoy Enrique Mora told a news conference after a meeting that formally ended the seventh round of talks. He said he hoped they would resume this year, while some officials have mentioned Dec. 27 as a tentative date. Officials said Iran had requested the break, while Western powers had planned on staying until Tuesday. Mora and other officials said Iranian demands had been incorporated into the existing text so as to have a common basis for negotiation, but three European powers that are parties to the 2015 deal sounded less optimistic. “There has been some technical progress in the last 24 hours, but this only takes us back nearer to where the talks stood in June,” negotiators from France, Britain and Germany, the so-called E3, said in a statement, describing the break as “a disappointing pause in negotiations.”
End of the road
The 2015 deal lifted sanctions against Tehran in return for tough restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities aimed at extending the time Tehran would need to obtain enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb if it chose to - so-called breakout time - to at least a year from roughly two to three months. In 2018 then-President Donald Trump, who vehemently opposed the deal, pulled the United States out of the accord and re-imposed punishing US sanctions against Tehran. Iran responded by breaching many of the deal’s nuclear restrictions and pressing ahead further with its atomic activities. Most experts now say breakout time is less than it was before the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran says its atomic aims are entirely peaceful. “We hope that Iran is in a position to resume the talks quickly, and to engage constructively so that talks can move at a faster pace,” the E3 negotiators said. “There are weeks not months before the JCPOA’s core non-proliferation benefits are lost. We are rapidly reaching the end of the road for this negotiation.” Iranian officials did not explain why they had requested a break other than to say there would be consultations in Tehran. “If the other party accepts Iran’s logical views, the next round of talks can be the last round,” Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani told reporters.

Iran nuclear talks pause amid frustration about pace
The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
"We have a lot of work ahead, a very complex task, I have to say,” EU senior official Enrique Mora said. “Difficult political decisions have to be taken.”
Talks aimed at salvaging Iran's tattered 2015 nuclear deal with world powers were adjourned on Friday, following a round marked by tensions over new demands from Tehran. Participants said that they aim to resume quickly, though they have not yet firmed up a date. China's chief negotiator, Wan Qun, said the talks will “resume hopefully before the end of the year.” Enrique Mora, the European Union diplomat who chaired the talks, echoed that, saying: “I hope it will be during 2021.” Negotiators from France, Britain and Germany called on Tehran on Friday to pick up the pace when negotiations resume. “We hope that Iran is in a position to resume the talks quickly and to engage constructively so that talks can move at a faster pace,” the negotiators said in a statement. The current negotiations in Vienna between the remaining signatories to the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, opened on November 29, after a gap of more than five months caused by the arrival of a new hard-line government in Iran. There was a short break last week as delegations returned home to consult with their governments.
The United States has participated indirectly in the ongoing talks because it withdrew from the accord in 2018 under then-President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden has signalled that he wants to rejoin the deal. “For the eighth round, we have a lot of work ahead, a very complex task, I have to say,” Mora said. “Difficult political decisions have to be taken.” The accord was meant to rein in Iran’s nuclear programme in return for loosened economic sanctions. Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China are still part of the agreement. Following the US decision to withdraw from the deal and re-impose sanctions on Iran, Tehran has ramped up its nuclear programme again by enriching uranium well beyond the thresholds allowed in the agreement. Iran has also restricted monitors from the UN atomic watchdog from accessing its nuclear facilities, raising concerns about what the country is doing out of view.
Diplomats from the three European nations have voiced frustration with Iran's stance during the current talks, saying earlier this week that they were "losing precious time dealing with new Iranian positions inconsistent with the JCPOA or that go beyond it.”They warned that “without swift progress, in light of Iran’s fast-forwarding of its nuclear programme, the JCPOA will very soon become an empty shell.” Still, there was one sign of progress on a related issue when Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency reached a deal Wednesday to reinstall cameras damaged at an Iranian site that manufactures centrifuge parts, though inspectors remain limited on what footage they can access. Mora, the talks' chairman, underscored that there is a “sense of urgency” to revive the 2015 agreement after the talks adjourned, though he wouldn't set a deadline. “We are not talking any more about months, we are talking about weeks,” he said, though he added that he could not say how many.

Baghdad, Iraqi Kurds work together to prevent ISIS resurgence
The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
Whether the fragile security partnership can hold is the big test in the next chapter of Iraq’s war with Islamic State extremists.
s a backhoe dug up the ground to build trenches, Iraqi soldiers scanned the vast farming tracts for militants; not far away, their Kurdish counterparts did the same.
The scene earlier this month in the small northern Iraqi farming village of Lheiban was a rare instance of coordination between the federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The two sides were fortifying a joint position aimed at defending the village against attacks by the Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group. Despite a long-standing territorial dispute, Baghdad and Iraq’s Kurds are taking steps to work together to prevent a resurgence of ISIS. Whether the fragile security partnership can hold is the big test in the next chapter of Iraq’s war with ISIS. Both sides say they need the Americans to help keep it together. They also say that is one reason why the US military presence in Iraq is not going away even as its combat mission officially ends on December 31. Iraq declared ISIS defeated four years ago this month. But the rivalry between Baghdad and the Kurds opened up cracks through which ISIS crept back: a long, disputed zone snaking through four provinces, Nineveh, Kirkuk, Salaheddin and Diyala, where the forces of either side did not enter. In some places, the zone was up to 40 kilometres wide. Lheiban lies in one part of the zone and a recent flurry of ISIS attacks threatened to empty the area of its residents, mostly Kurds. So for the first time since 2014, Iraqi troops and Peshmerga are setting up joint coordination centres around the zone to better police the gaps. “Daesh took advantage,” said Captain Nakib Hajar, head of Kurdish Peshmerga operations in the area, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS. Now, he said, “we are coordinating ... It begins here, in this village.”
- Anxieties --
Like all residents of Lheiban, Helmet Zahir is tired. In past months, the cement factory worker would spend all night on the roof of his humble home, his wife and children sleeping inside, holding his rifle and waiting. Security personnel guarding a nearby oil company, the only ones in the area equipped with thermal night vision, would send the signal when they spotted ISIS militants making their way down the Qarachok Mountain range toward Lheiban. It was up to Zahir and other armed residents to fend them off. “We were abandoned. The Peshmerga was on one side, the Iraqi army on another and neither was intervening,” he said. A recent uptick in attacks on the village, with three in the first week of December alone, prompted many of the village’s residents, who are mainly Kurds, to leave. Zahir moved his family to Debaga in the relative safety of the Kurdish-run north. Once numbering 65 families, Lheiban now has only 12 left, said village mukhtar Yadgar Karim. On December 7, Peshmerga and Iraqi forces moved into the village with plans to replicate coordination elsewhere across the disputed territories. Kurdish officials hoped this would prompt villagers to return. Maintaining a Kurdish population in the area is key to their territorial claims. Zahir is not convinced. “I came to check on the situation only, I am too afraid to return,” he said.
The Peshmerga have positions all along the ridge of the Qarachok mountains. But they do not have orders to stop ISIS extremists as they cross on attacks or to raid ISIS positions because of wariness over entering disputed territory, explained Colonel Kahar Jawhar. Moreover, the militants move at night, using tunnels and hiding in caves and the Peshmerga lack key equipment including night vision. “That is why ISIS are able to terrorise the residents, because we can’t see them,” Jawhar said. Kurdish Peshmerga forces oversee the digging of defensive trenches in the village -- Deep mistrust --
The talks to re-establish joint coordination centres between the Iraqi army and Peshmerga began over two years ago but fell apart because of deep mistrust and differences over how to carve out lines of control. Under current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, talks were rekindled, paving the way for an agreement to set up six joint coordination centres in Baghdad, Irbil and across the disputed zone. Kadhimi also agreed to establish two joint brigades to conduct anti-ISIS operations. But this is awaiting budget approval from Baghdad’s finance ministry, said Hajar Ismail, Peshmerga head of relations with the coalition. Between 2009-2014, Iraqi and Kurdish forces conducted joint security in the northern provinces of Ninevah, Kirkuk and Diyala. But the collapse of the Iraqi army during the ISIS onslaught of 2014 ended the arrangement. Kurdish authorities managed to solidify control over Kirkuk and other disputed areas during this time, even developing oil fields and conducting an independent export policy, to the ire of the federal government. After Iraq declared victory over ISIS in 2017, Baghdad turned its sights to these areas, launching a military operation in October 2017 to retake them. Relations soured, with Baghdad cutting off budget allocations to the Kurdish region, rendering it unable to pay public sector workers and debts to oil companies. Baghdad was long reluctant to resume security talks partly due to political optics in the capital, with many dominant Shiite parties deeply mistrustful of Kurdish intentions, according to federal officials. The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), made up largely of Shia militia groups loyal to Iran, has opposed joint patrols with the Peshmerga. The PMF also has a powerful presence in many areas in the disputed zone. So far, the PMF has been surprisingly quiet about the new joint arrangement, as it copes with a devastating loss in federal elections earlier this year. But “at some point they will speak out against it,” Zmkan Ali, a senior researcher at the Institute of Regional and International Studies, a research centre in Sulaymaniyah.
-- US factor --
The road to better coordination has often involved a common friend: the US.
Iraqi and Kurdish officials said the US-led coalition’s mediation and support were key in bringing parties to the table. “They played an important role, coordinating with us and the Iraqi side,” said Jawhar, at the Peshmerga base in Qarachok. “Without them we wouldn’t speak, they wouldn’t come here, and we wouldn’t go there.” Both sides say they still need the Americans to play that role. US troops quietly stopped direct involvement in combat against ISIS months ago and have since been advising and training troops. That role will continue when the combat mission formally ends on December 31. The US presence is also crucial in other ways. The Americans pay the salaries of many Peshmerga fighters, amid ongoing budget disputes with Baghdad. Some $240 million in US funding covers the salaries of around 45,000 Peshmerga personnel, according to Ismail.
“Thankfully, this will continue in 2022,” he said.

Many Forced to Leave Their Homes as Floods Hit Iraq's Erbil
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 December, 2021
Eight people in northern Iraq died Friday in flash floods caused by torrential rains in Erbil, provincial governor Omid Khoshnaw said. In a country dealing with severe drought, many were caught by surprise and drowned as powerful storm waters began surging into their homes before dawn.
"The floods began at 4:00 am, and have left eight dead including women and children," he told AFP, reporting "significant" damage, especially in a working-class district in the east of the city of Erbil. Four members of the civil defense team who came to help residents were injured when their car was washed away, he added. "Of the eight people who died, one died struck by lightning, while the others drowned in their homes," said civil defense spokesperson Sarkawt Karach. Many people have been forced to leave their homes, he added. "Searches are ongoing for missing people," Karach said, warning that the death toll could still rise. In Arbil, an AFP reporter saw torrents of muddy water pouring down roads. Buses, trucks and tankers were washed away by the storm waters, with some toppled onto their side. Khoshnaw called on residents to stay at home unless necessary, warning that further rain was expected with fears for more floods. Iraq has been hit by a succession of extreme weather events. It has endured blistering temperatures and repeated droughts in recent years, but has also experienced intense floods --- made worse when torrential rain falls on sun-baked earth. Hard ground, compounded by vegetation loss, means the earth does not absorb water as quickly, and when storms hit, they can become flash floods. Scientists say climate change amplifies extreme weather, including droughts as well as the potential for the increased intensity of rain storms. Experts have warned that record low rainfall, compounded by climate change, are threatening social and economic disaster in war-scarred Iraq. The effects of low rainfall have been exacerbated by falling water levels on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers as a result of dam-building in neighbouring Turkey and Iran, Samah Hadid of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), has said. The severity of the drought has forced many farming families to leave their land and seek a living in urban areas. In a study released Thursday, the NRC said half of the families living in drought-affected areas of Iraq need humanitarian food aid.

Kuwait Says to Open Abdali Border Crossing with Iraq
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 December, 2021
Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sabah al-Khaled said Abdali border crossing with Iraq will be opened next week to boost economic cooperation, trade exchange and facilitate movement between the two countries. Al-Khaled made an inspection tour of the northern border facilities. He was accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Sheikh Hamad al-Ali and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs Sheikh Dr. Ahmed al-Nasser. In this context, Head of Iraq’s Border Ports Authority Omar al-Waeli underlined the economic and commercial significance of this border checkpoint for both countries. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Safwan and Abdali border crossings with Kuwait were shut to travelers and trade at both countries’ request in March 2020, amid fears over the spread of coronavirus. The recent decision will bolster bilateral commercial and economic cooperation, Waeli noted, affirming that both countries welcomed the decision. Commenting on the importance of the border crossing in the future, Waeli pointed out that Kuwait has one border crossing with Iraq, making it crucial during all times.

Bodies of 11 Iraqi Policemen Found in Mass Grave
Baghdad – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 December, 2021
A Peshmerga security official said the remains of at least 11 Iraqi policemen killed by ISIS were found in a mass grave north of the country. “A mass grave was discovered on Thursday in the Duraji area,” where there are many caves once used as hideouts by ISIS terrorist group, said Major General Muhammad Rustom, the commander of the Garmian (Qarba) axis. Duraji is in Salaheddin province in an area disputed between the federal government and the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan. “We think they had been prisoners of ISIS in 2018,” the official said, adding that both peshmerga and Iraqi federal police were taking part in the search, AFP reported. “An engineering and medical team from the Iraqi Federal Police is on the scene,” he added. He said the mass grave was discovered as a result of “intelligence information obtained from ISIS hideouts in the region where the extremists imprisoned members of the Iraqi forces they captured.”ISIS seized swathes of Iraq in a lightning offensive in 2014, before being beaten back by a counter-insurgency campaign supported by a US-led military coalition. Investigators have uncovered more than 200 mass graves containing thousands of bodies in areas of Iraq, according to a United Nations human rights report.

In sign of security chaos, Tripoli militias attempt to grab Menfi in raid
The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
Gunmen seized the Presidency Council headquarters in Nufleen and its subsidiary premises in the palace near Bu Setta hoping, according to sources, to find Menfi there. He was not.
When two Tripoli militias raided the offices of the prime minister and the Presidency Council (PC) overnight Thursday, reliable sources report that they were hoping to seize PC head Mohamed al-Menfi, in protest at his sacking of Tripoli Military Zone commander Major General Abdulbasit Marwan.
Menfi replaced the long-serving Marwan with General Abdulkader Mansour. Though seen as ineffective, Marwan was supported by the two armed militia groups involved in the assaults, the Ghenewa militia led by Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, which is also known as The Stabilisation Force and the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade of Haithem Tajouri. The gunmen seized the PC headquarters in Nufleen and its subsidiary premises in the palace near Bu Setta hoping, according to sources to find Menfi there. He was not. The gunmen were still in the buildings on Friday and had increased their presence in the area with dozens of military vehicles in the surrounding streets including, according to one eye witness, up to the former home of Ayesha Gadhafi, the late dictator’s daughter, in the Hani district. Though it was initially believed that the gunmen were also protesting the elections and the candidacies of Libyan National Army leader Khalifa Haftar and Gadhafi’s son Seif al-Islam, it is now clear that their main beef was with the ouster of Marwan. It is claimed that Menfi acted under pressure from Mahmoud Hamza, head of the 444 Brigade. Menfi is close to Hamza who, it is said, was strongly opposed to Marwan who had been appointed by Fayez Serraj, prime minister of the previous Government of National Accord. Marwan was, according to sources, “neither particularly effective nor charismatic”. If correct, this may be one reason why the armed militias involved are so angry at his removal.
A military official on Thursday sought to play down the militia’s operation, saying it had been carried out by units charged with securing state institutions and that they had not surrounded the sites.
Libya has seen a decade of chaos since the overthrow of the Muammar Gadhafi regime in a 2011 NATO-backed revolt and today its capital is under the control of an array of armed groups loosely affiliated with and paid by the defence and interior ministries.
The latest development in Tripoli came amid heightened tensions little more than a week before a presidential election set for December 24 as part of a United Nations-led peace process.
A senior official from the Higher National Electoral Commission has since said that the voting cannot go head on time. So far there has been no reaction to the behaviour of the militias from the interim prime minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah. However, a social media post showed Menfi meeting the German ambassador apparently on Friday. In a further twist, another militia head has called UN envoy Stephanie Williams “a dog”. Salah Badi, commander of the Somoud Brigade, who is subject to UN sanctions, included this insult in a video he released in which he said that he would not allow any elections to happen before a constitution had been put in place. Badi is not however thought to be involved in Thursday’s raids.

Tebboune’s visit to Tunis ushers in closer ties but no regional alignment
The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
Tunisia is said to have little interest in Algeria's reported desire to create a new regional grouping excluding Morocco.
The two-day visit by Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune to Tunisia is expected to go a long way towards boosting the largely-dormant economic relations between the two neighbouring countries with 27 new agreements signed. However, it is unlikely to convince Tunis to align itself behind Algeria in its tense row with Morocco, analysts said. Diplomatic sources in Tunis say that Tunisia remains committed to the historic ideal of the building of the Arab Maghreb Union, a regional grouping that includes Tunisia and Algeria but also Morocco, Libya and Mauritania.
"We will work to transform the Arab Maghreb into tangible reality with such meetings," said Tunisian President Kais Saied said in his joint media appearance with Abdelmadjid Tebboune at the Carthage Palace, on Wednesday.
Despite its strategic reliance on Algeria's support in the fight against armed extremists on the two countries' common border and its need for its neighbour's economic help, Tunisia is said to have little interest in Algiers' reported desire to create a new regional grouping excluding Morocco (and possibly including some Sub-Saharan African nations). Ennahda's leader, Rached Ghannouchi, had advocated in the past a Libya-Tunisia-Algeria bloc but the idea never gained political traction. Political analyst Nabil Rabhi said that "the Algerian president's visit to Tunisia included three axes, namely the Libyan elections, the Arab summit to be held in Tunisia next March, and especially the political tension between Algeria and Rabat." Besides offering a vigorous boost to bilateral cooperation at a time of economic difficulties faced by Tunis, Tebboune's visit was seen by Maghreb watchers as clearly aimed at consolidating relations with Tunisia in conjunction with the escalating tensions between Algiers and Rabat. But Maghreb experts see Tunisia as unlikely to be swayed into any polarising alliance against Morocco. Rabhi told The Arab Weekly, "Tunisia's position has always been neutral regarding policies of alignment and I think that Tunisia, in its current situation, does not want to align itself clearly behind an Algerian axis against Morocco."
Writer and political analyst Mohamed Dhouib said, “It is certain that the Algerian president’s visit to Tunisia is very important in a turbulent national, international and regional context, on top of the coronavirus crisis that has affected all countries without exception. It is certain that the 27 agreements covering all fields of cooperation between the two countries are very important and will have their positive repercussions on the two neighbouring countries and their peoples, but there is also political significance to this visit. Tensions underlie Algeria's foreign relations, especially with Morocco and with France, as well as with Libya, where the outlook is quite blurry."
Speaking to The Arab Weekly, Dhouib added: “Algeria is now looking for new political alliances and wants to include Tunisia in its axis in the hope of using it as a pressure card against Morocco and it may be with the intention of creating an Arab Maghreb without Morocco after helping Libya out of its crisis. But I think this is not possible for all kinds of reasons. Furthermore, the Tunisian president has stressed that the official position of Tunisia is determined by its interests and the country has no propensity to be drawn to the logic of alignment or axes. That kind of logic, which manifested itself in Tunisia after 2011, had caused the country many problems with a number of countries, especially Syria and Algeria itself during the Troika period.”
The Troika period (2011-2013) has witnessed an Ennahda-led rule, which promoted a regional Islamist agenda alienating Tunisia's traditional partners and also lent support to militant movements. Mohamed Dhouib added, "Talking about an Arab Maghreb against the background of the acute crisis between Algeria and Morocco and the ambiguous situation in Libya is not possible today. But I hope that Tunisia will play a pivotal role in lowering tensions between Morocco and Algeria and trying to persuade the two sides to adopt a language of dialogue and bring their respective views closer and maybe help overcome the tensions that have plagued the region for nearly fifty years now." Dhouib continued: “I also hope that Tunisia and Algeria will play a major role in creating a suitable climate to get Libya out of its crisis. Only then will it be possible to revive the spirit of the Great Arab Maghreb, whose time has come to in order to enable its member countries to overcome the pandemic crisis, especially that alliances between countries are being reshaped as old balances are giving way to the emergence of new forces and the decline of others.” “Perhaps the Tunisian role will be limited to positive mediation and the proposal of possible solutions in order to overcome the current crisis or push for appeasement," remarked Rabhi. During their news conference, the Tunisian and Algerian presidents noted that the two neighbouring Maghreb countries agreed during the talks to "strengthen cooperation" in several fields, including health and the environment.Tebboune said that he was pleased with his talks with Saied. "We are keen to advance bilateral cooperation, and we will work to reach economic integration and common unity based on a coherent will and strategic orientation, and tapping into the factors of human, geographic and cultural proximity between the two countries," Tebboune said.
-- Deals signed --
"We agreed to strengthen the legal framework (for the relationship) by signing an important number of agreements to enhance cooperation in vital sectors," he added. The Tunisian and Algerian presidents attended the signing ceremony of 27 agreements and memoranda of understanding between the two countries, covering the areas of justice, the interior and local government issues, decentralised cooperation, communication, media, industry, small and medium enterprises, the environment, foreign trade, culture, religious affairs, energy, vocational training, fishing, employment, women, children, the elderly, youth, sports, education and health. Tebboune had arrived in Tunisia on Wednesday for a two-day visit, at the invitation of Saied, who welcomed his Algerian counterpart at the airport. Tunisia is the second foreign nation visited by the Algerian president since he assumed his duties at the end of 2019. Prior to Tunis, he visited Saudi Arabia in February 2020. The Tunisian president paid an official visit to Algeria in February 2020, during which he discussed with his Algerian counterpart a number of issues of common interest, most notably the crisis in neighbouring Libya.
During the same news conference, the two leaders expressed similarities of views on regional issues, especially the situation in Libya.
Saied said, "During our meeting with President Tebboune, we emphasised that the Libyan people are sovereign and they can decide their fate by themselves, and the solution must be between Libyans themselves." Tebboune concurred, "I agree with President Saied that the solution in Libya must be between Libyans themselves," he said. He also hoped that "Libya will get rid of mercenaries and foreign forces, and that there will reconciliation between the Libyan parties." Talking about the Arab summit scheduled in Algeria next March, Tebboune said, "We want it to be an inclusive and comprehensive summit that ends Arab divisiveness". Syria's seat at the Arab League has been vacant for the last ten years. The Algerian president had said during an interview broadcast on Algerian television on November 27, that "Syria should be normally present at the Arab summit," which his country will host next March.
On Tuesday, the Tunisian Official Gazette reported that Algeria will lend Tunisia $300 million, at a time when Tunisia's talks with the International Monetary Fund are proceeding slowly. Tunisia faces a severe economic crisis amid a new political transition set in motion by President Saied on July 25, when he put in place "exceptional measures" based on Article 80 of the constitution, as he suspended the activities of Parliament, lifted the immunity of his deputies and dismissed the government headed by Hichem Mechichi.

Plunging lira could deal final blow for Turkey’s newspapers
Alexandra de Cramer/The Arab Weekly/December 17/2021
The suffering of the publishing industry is part of the government’s legacy of destruction and neglect towards the nation’s cultural pillars.
Running a print publication in Turkey has never been easy, but the dramatic devaluation of the Turkish lira this year has added to the industry’s hardships. Beyond the incurable problem of declining readerships, a battle with censorship and the constant fear of having writers jailed, publications are now faced with not being able to afford paper. Since 2005, Turkey’s publishing industry has had to import the paper it uses. The country’s first paper-making company SEKA was privatised in 1998. Less than a decade later it was closed down under the pretense that it was cheaper to buy paper from abroad rather than source it locally. Hence, the paper market is directly influenced by the foreign exchange rate. All transactions take place in terms of dollars or euros leaving the industry extremely susceptible to fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Last month the Turkish lira lost 30 percent of its value. Not only did this weaken the purchasing power of publications, but it sent paper prices skyrocketing. In less than a year, the price of paper used for book covers has nearly doubled, high-grade paper pulp used in school books is up by 130 percent and regular book paper has gone up nearly by 60 percent. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, paper is one of the three items that has increased the most in price this year. Newspapers have already been struggling for different reasons but the exponential rise in the price of paper is expected to be the final nail in the coffin of many publications. Yilmaz Karaca, the chairman of the Federation of Journalists of Turkey, certainly believes so. Karaca says the local press will suffer the most, estimating that 100 newspapers will have shut up shop during 2021.
The third quarter report of the Turkish Association of Journalists estimated that in the last six years newspapers have lost half of their readerships. Moreover, during 2021, newspapers and magazines have recorded their lowest circulation figures for any year in the last two decades.
While this is in line with the global shift of audiences from print to digital and declining advertising revenues, Turkey has faced a further problem: many news organisations have lost credibility. Gradually Turkish newspapers have come to no longer be viewed as reliable sources of information. More and more news enterprises have been sold off to companies close to the government and slipped into being its mouth-pieces. It is sad to watch the structural decline of an entire industry as it is slowly eviscerated. The remaining few publications with their integrity intact and journalistic values undiminished are now being pushed to the verge of extinction.
When sport magazine Socrates was launched in 2015 it became one of the few Turkish publications to expand internationally. But Editor-in-Chief Caner Eler is now worried. He recently said on Twitter that the magazine “has been stocking stacks of paper to be able to ensure the publication of their magazine in the up-coming six months.” Who knows what will happen thereafter. The owner of Kirmizi Kedi (Red Cat) Publishing House, Haluk Hepkon is adamant that the prices of books must increase, “not to make a profit but to avoid losing money.” Books currently sold for 20 to 30 lira would have to rise in price to 80 lira. Although publishers must do this to survive, it is unclear whether readers will pay the extra. Publishers have held off increasing their prices so far because the cost of publishing books is unclear. As Elif Akkaya, president of the Turkish Publishers Cooperative, explains: “It is not only that the cost of paper has doubled, the cost of printing has doubled also with the prices of items such as ink and printers continually rising as well. There is speculation that these prices might triple in the new year.”
Still, the most problematic expense remains paper. Kenan Kocaturk, president of the Turkish Publishers Association, predicts that “finding paper to print might not be possible in the near future.” Thus publishers are using the paper they do have very carefully and only the books deemed most important are currently being printed. The economic policy adopted by the ruling Justice and Development Party is focused on producing cheap labour and production for export-driven companies. It takes no account of the many industries that will suffer as they can no longer afford to import what they need.
The suffering of the publishing industry is also part of the government’s legacy of destruction and neglect towards the nation’s cultural pillars.
For those engaged in producing and printing words, Turkey only promises a future riddled with anxiety. How will the publication industry support Turkish writers? How can the current climate ever give rise to and produce young writers? Will anyone ever feel motivated enough to study this craft, let alone pursue it?
A dim future awaits publications, where the reader will not be able to buy and the publisher will not be able to print. But it is even darker for those pursuing the craft of writing.
Syndication Bureau/www.syndicationbureau.com

Israel Hunts Palestinians for W.bank Settler Killing
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 December, 2021
Israeli soldiers carried out a manhunt Friday in the occupied West Bank, a day after the army blamed Palestinians for shooting dead an Israeli settler and wounding two others. The army said it has deployed three extra battalions as well as special forces. "We are in a physical, technological, intelligence hunt," Israeli army spokesman Brigadier General Ran Kochav told 103FM radio. "We arrested last night a number of suspects... sooner or later we will find the perpetrators."An Israeli student was killed and two were wounded Thursday when their car came under gunfire near a settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, medics said. The Magen David Adom rescue service said medics unsuccessfully worked to revive a passenger in the car’s back seat who was unconscious after getting shot, AFP reported. “Paramedics had to pronounce his death on the way to the hospital,” it said in a statement, adding that two other men who were riding in the car suffered “mild” injuries from glass shards and were taken to hospital. Medics said the shooting occurred near the Shavei Shomron settlement, in the northern occupied West Bank near the city of Nablus. Thursday's shooting followed high tensions after Palestinian attacks on Israelis, and the killing of Palestinians by Israeli troops during clashes. Last week Israeli police arrested a 14-year-old Palestinian girl on suspicion of stabbing her neighbor, an Israeli Jewish resident of a settlement in a contested neighborhood of east Jerusalem.

OCHA Reports Increase in Violence in Sudan's West
Khartoum - Mohammed Amin Yassine/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 17 December, 2021
An increase in violence in western Sudan has been recently reported, including a sub-national conflict in Darfur and Kordofan since October, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Over 83,000 people have been displaced due to inter-communal conflict in Central, North and West Darfur and thousands have been displaced in Kordofan since October 2021, according to OCHA. Most of the affected people are yet to receive humanitarian assistance mostly due to ongoing conflict or insecurity. Meanwhile, the General Coordination of the Displaced and Refugee Camps said that the Janjaweed assassinated Wednesday Ezzedine Adam, 20, arrested two others and attacked four refugees including a woman. A new wave of attacks on civilians in Darfur since mid-November 2021 highlights the urgent need for the United Nations to enhance its scrutiny of the restive region of Sudan, Human Rights Watch said. A year after the withdrawal of the United Nations/African Union Hybrid Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), violence between armed groups, in some cases implicating state security forces, has been on the rise, with a devastating impact on civilians. The UN should deploy a robust human rights monitoring presence to the area, including expertise in gender-based crimes. “The resurgence of violence in Darfur over the last year has left a trail of devastation, with scores killed and injured, massive displacement, and thousands of homes destroyed,” said Mohamed Osman, Sudan researcher at Human Rights Watch. “International monitors need to refocus their attention on Darfur.”

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 17-18/2021
The West and Its Old Illusion
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/December 17/2021
Are economic relations and trade effective tools with which Western democracies could persuade totalitarian states from introducing reforms that could lead to democratization?
Hotly debated for decades, the question is back with a campaign by the usual suspects to encourage the Biden administration to give Iranian mullahs what they want in the hope that they might mend their ways. These days one reads op-eds and pseudo-research papers presenting Iran as “a potential market of $3 trillion” and the last missing piece in the great global market.
The thesis has been tested numerous times and proven wrong.
In the 1920s as the Bolshevik regime in Russia was tightening its hold on the country with mass killings, several Americans and academics campaigned for the recognition of “the new reality” and the offering of a package of economic aid.
One American businessman of Ukrainian origin, Armand Hammer, felt so besotted by Lenin to say: “If he asked me to jump out of the window and kill myself, I would probably have done so.”
Hammer, of course, didn’t kill himself for Lenin and ended up making a bundle by smuggling oil from Russia in defiance of Western sanctions.
Nor was he alone in pursuing that, for him, profitable illusion.
In a long paper, Dana Durand, adviser to President Herbert Hoover, argued that “the quickest way to bring about the reforms we desire (in USSR) is by participating in investment and trade.”
Durand’s advice was taken and the US helped Josef Stalin out of the dire strait he had created for himself with hare-brained collectivization schemes. In 1933 the future “Uncle Joe” of President Franklin Roosevelt publicly thanked the US for its timely aid. In the same spirit, after World War II, President Harry S Truman offered to extend the Marshal Plan to the USSR. Stalin politely declined.
The illusion was revived in a new format with George Kennan’s famous “long telegram” that laid the groundwork for Henry Kissinger’s infamous détente a generation later. The USSR was legitimized as a partner-cum rival in global leadership and received generous injections of credit by the “Earth-devouring Imperialism.”
The USSR didn’t become a democracy but, thanks to Western illusions and of “investment and trade” managed to delay its inevitable implosion by years if not decades.
Lenin and Stalin weren’t the only 20th century despots to seduce some in Western democracies.
Benito Mussolini of Italy had his own American apologists and admirers, among them Walter Lippmann who, fearing “the inability of voters to grasp issues of modern governance”, was attracted by Il Duce’s “strong state” rhetoric.
Anne O’Hare McCormack, the New York Times correspondent in Rome, and Richard Washburn Child, US Ambassador to Italy, led a chorus of praise for Mussolini while some US universities included Giovanni Gentile’s “The Ethical State” in the syllabus. Thousands of Italian-Americans even went to Spain to fight on General Franco’s side supported by Mussolini and Nazi Germany.
The next sanguinary despot to attract Western “usual suspects” was Adolf Hitler.
His American admirers and apologists included Henry Ford, Thomas Watson, the founder of IBM, and a family friend of the Roosevelts, President George W Bush’s grand-dad Prescott Bush, and, for a while, the aviation hero Charles Lindbergh.
Mao Zedong, the reincarnation of Kublai Khan, was the next despot to seduce some in the West. Journalist Edgar Snow was among American intellectuals who presented “the Great Helmsman” as an Asian Messiah coming to save the downtrodden, thus deserving support including “investment and trade.”
Decades later, that illusion found its bureaucratic echo in a report to President George W Bush by his Assistant Secretary of State Robert Zoellick urging aid and trade to help Communist China reform and come out of poverty.
Bush fell for that narrative, also marketed by Kissinger as a paid lobbyist for Beijing.
What may happen to China next, no one knows. But one thing is clear. Zoellick’s predictions proved wrong. Under President Xi Jinping China is moving further away from democratization and casting itself as a rival if not adversary of the United States.
Iranian despot Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had his own American lobbyists. While he was putting hundreds to death in Tehran, Time Magazine in New York hailed him as “Gandhi of Islam”. Young junior Senator for Delaware Joe Biden echoed President Jimmy Carter’s wishful thinking about friendship with “a new Iran”. National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski dreamt of an “Islamic Iran” as part of a “green belt of Islam” to cordon off the USSR which, being of Polish origin himself, he regarded as an abiding threat.
Henry Precht, head of Iran desk in the Carter administration, dubbed the Khomeinist regime as “a potential ally” because the ayatollah’s first Cabinet included five men with US citizenship and/ or “green card” residence permits.
Over the years, Khomeini’s successors have enjoyed the support of American or US-based apologists, among them Noam Chomsky, George Soros, Richard Falk, Lewis Farrakhan, Chuck Hagel, Oliver Stone, and Sean Penn.
In his time Hitler used the German-American Bund (federation), financed by American businessmen, as his Trojan horse in the US. Mussolini had a surrogate in the Italian-American Organization. The US Communist Party played a similar role to the USSR. The Iranian Republic is using the same recipe through an Iranian-American political action group funded by American “well-wishers.”
On a smaller extent, the policy of cuddling despots was used in relations with Muammar al-Kaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela; and Manuel Noriega in Panama, until they misbehaved beyond limits tolerable even by Western “bleeding hearts.” And let’s not forget John Kerry’s love and admiration for Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Western beautification of ugly regimes has never led to a change of trajectory to join what Americans tout as “the democratic world.” Regimes that oppress their people can never become trusted friends for anyone, let alone countries where power is based on at least some respect for human rights and government with some consent by the governed.
Next time anyone plays the tune “let’s help mullahs reform”, listen but remember Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler, Mao Zedong, and others.
To be sure in dealing with despotic regimes the choice isn’t between loving embrace and launching a shooting war. There are other choices, including “let them stew in their juice”, or, at least don’t help them get out of the hole they have dug for themselves.

Could an end to the Turkey-Armenia deadlock finally be in sight?
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 17, 2021
In an apparent breakthrough in the long-standing deadlock between Ankara and Yerevan, the two neighbors have pledged to appoint special envoys to pave the way for the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, after nearly three decades of enmity.
After months of several positive public statements by Turkish and Armenian officials, the announcement of the appointment of special envoys was made by Ankara and endorsed by Yerevan, with the latter stating that Armenia is ready to initiate a normalization process with Turkey “without preconditions.”
The Turkish side added that charter flights between Istanbul and Yerevan would resume soon. Ankara has named Serdar Kilic, a former Turkish ambassador to Washington who has a close relationship with the Turkish presidency, as its special envoy to lead the discussions with the Armenians, while Yerevan has yet to announce a name. Through the appointment of envoys, which is the most concrete step taken so far toward normalization, Ankara and Yerevan will be able to negotiate without third parties involved in the process.
When announcing the news of the special envoys, Ankara stressed that every step in the process will include consultations with Azerbaijan. This statement indicates that Ankara is cautious and determined not to relegate Baku to the sidelines as it did in 2009 when the Zurich Protocols between Turkey and Armenia were signed. That earlier attempt to establish diplomatic relations, and reopen the joint border between Turkey and Armenia, was derailed by Baku.
Therefore, the success of the new process between Turkey and Armenia will also depend on the separate track between Baku and Yerevan. If peace can be achieved between Azerbaijan and Armenia, progress could be made in Turkish-Armenian relations.
Last year’s six-week Nagorno-Karabakh War between Azeri and Armenian troops ended in favor of Baku, thanks to Turkey’s support, and provided a new impetus to restore ties between neighbors.
For a deeper understanding, I asked Armenian and Turkish civil society representatives about their perspectives on the appointment of special envoys.
According to Richard Giragosian, director of Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, the announcement, which is seen as Ankara taking the first step in support of normalization with Armenia, is crucial for three reasons.
“Firstly, the process of normalization is part of a broader post-war effort to restore regional trade and transport in the South Caucasus region,” he said.
“Secondly, a return to diplomatic engagement between Turkey and Armenia offers a rare success in Turkish foreign policy and a positive development after months of political instability and economic crisis in Turkey. And thirdly, this is also a component of a more ambitious Turkish effort of rapprochement with Israel, the UAE and others.”
Mensur Akgun, director of the Global Political Trends Center in Istanbul, is optimistic but cautious about this new impetus.
“It is a positive step; however, the appointment of special representatives, not diplomatic representatives, shows us that the negotiation process is not over,” he said. “It is possible that Turkey will link the normalization to the genocide allegations and will try to maintain the balance in the twin protocols signed in 2009. “On the other hand, both parties need to hurry up because their own public opinion and the regional conjuncture may follow a course against the normalization process.”
In addition to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Turkish-Armenian relations continue to be soured by the events that led to the deaths of Armenians living in Anatolia during the First World War. Armenians say the events amounted to “genocide,” while Turkey vehemently objects to the suggestion that there was a plan to systematically wipe out the Armenian population, and describes the events as a tragedy in which both sides suffered casualties.
For many years, therefore, the “G-word” has remained a major obstacle to the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, and all efforts by civil society organizations, intellectuals and officials to overcome it have failed.
One of the keys issues relating to the normalization of relations is the creation of a joint commission, made up of historians and lawyers from Turkey and Armenia, to discuss past humanitarian tragedies. Ankara has repeatedly proposed such an initiative as a requirement; however, it seems to be a prerequisite that is not easily acceptable to the Armenian side.
According to Akgun, the reason behind the Turkish desire for a normalization of the relations is to alleviate the pressure exerted by third parties on Ankara, and this can only be achieved by the establishment of such a commission. Therefore the current Turkish-Armenian rapprochement is being strongly supported by various international actors, in particular by Washington and Moscow.
Although a challenging road lies ahead, sincerity and speedy efforts will be the keys to breaking the Turkish-Armenian deadlock.
But analysts maintain that the path to Turkey-Armenia normalization is not going to be a bed of roses.
One of the preconditions that Turkey included in the 2009 protocols for the establishment of diplomatic relations was Armenia’s recognition of Turkish territorial integrity. Article 11 of the Armenian Declaration of Independence of Aug. 23, 1990 refers to Eastern Anatolia, in Turkey, as Western Armenia and, as such, holds that the area is part of Armenia. This is considered by Turkey to be a policy that undermines good neighborly relations. Because of this article, the Armenian constitutional court did not allow the 2009 protocols to be ratified.
Needless to say, no one expects the issues between Turkey and Armenia to be resolved overnight. The normalization of relations will involve several aspects related to both domestic and regional constraints.
Although a challenging road lies ahead, sincerity and speedy efforts will be the keys to breaking the Turkish-Armenian deadlock. Both countries should be able to benefit from the new climate in the region that is more conducive to deescalation and diplomacy.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

Is there a ‘Joe Biden doctrine’ on international affairs?
Luke Coffey/Arab News/December 17, 2021
US President Joe Biden, who is almost one year into his administration, has pursued a foreign policy that has projected American weakness on the global stage. Already, in his first year of office, there have been consequential foreign-policy decisions that have shaped, whether intentionally or not, a “Biden Doctrine” on international affairs.
Of these, the fallout from his decision to abandon Afghanistan, his desperation to secure a new deal with Iran no matter what the cost, and a hopelessly naive approach to Russia have been the most consequential.
From these three disastrous examples of statecraft, there are five notable observations regarding President Biden’s approach to international affairs.
Firstly, adversaries of the US are testing the limits of American weakness. The consequences of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will be felt beyond the Hindu Kush.
As a global power, what America does in one region can easily affect another — and it often does. The chaotic and incompetent manner of America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan will invite provocation in other places. Russia, Iran, China and North Korea will be even more willing to push the envelope to see what they can get away with.
Secondly, US allies and partners are questioning American resolve. In addition to empowering America’s adversaries, some of the foreign policy actions of the Biden administration have also affected America’s relations with its allies and partners around the world.
Many long-standing partners are now questioning American resolve and commitment. In August, the UK’s House of Commons all but formally censured the US president during a debate on Afghanistan. Publicly, many senior officials across Europe are now talking about the need for “strategic autonomy” from the US as a result of the American administration’s aloofness toward global affairs.
Thirdly, there is a lazy approach to international relations. A great example of this was administration’s so-called “Summit for Democracy,” which needlessly and simplistically divided key US partners, friends and allies at a time of geopolitical flux. For example, two NATO members, Hungary and Turkey, were not invited at a time when NATO needed unity over the Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. Guatemala, a democratic country in Central America, was not invited at a time when illegal immigration through America’s southern border is a major challenge.
America is not a weak nation — but right now it is not a serious nation when it comes to foreign affairs.
Fourthly, there is a failure to learn from mistakes. For someone with half a century of foreign-policy experience, this is inexcusable. Biden’s insistence on withdrawing from Afghanistan in the way the US did is a good example.
In 2011, while vice president, Biden was part of the decision taken by the Obama administration to withdraw all US forces from Iraq, even though critics of the decision called for a small training force to be left behind to assist the Iraqi security forces. By 2014, Daesh had captured a large chunk of Iraq, including its second-largest city, Mosul.
Finally, there has been a failure to understand America’s role in an era of Great Power Competition. In Great Power Competition, a superpower such as the US has two big advantages: economic influence and a strong national defense. Sadly, the Biden administration has shown little desire to advance either.
There has been no meaningful push to secure new free-trade deals by the Biden White House. Instead, many of the same, protectionist economic policies that were implemented by the Trump administration have been kept by the Biden administration.
It also proposed a real-terms cut to US defense spending until Congress stepped in to increase funding. The Biden administration’s unwillingness to promote free trade and economic freedom around the world, and its unwillingness to properly fund the US military in line with America’s global interests, could ultimately undermine the tough stance against China taken by the White House so far.
Whether it is dividing friends and partners of the US at a time when unity is needed, or keeping allies in the dark over major decisions such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration has made blunder after blunder during only one year in office.
Robert Gates, who served as US defense secretary for both the Bush and Obama administrations, wrote in his 2014 book “Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War” that Biden “has been wrong on nearly every major national security issue over the past four decades.”
Admittedly, President Biden still has three years remaining of his term. Perhaps global events will force him to become a more internationally focused president. Or perhaps as he feels more comfortable dealing with domestic issues, he will find more bandwidth to deal with global matters beyond climate change. However, the current trends suggest this is unlikely.
When it comes to foreign policy, expect an unpredictable and disjointed approach from the White House over the next few years. What is missing is statecraft, leadership and political will.
America is not a weak nation — but right now it is not a serious nation when it comes to foreign affairs.