English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 08/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.april08.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Temptation of Jesus
Luke 04/01-13: “Jesus, full of the Holy Spirit,
returned from the Jordan and was led by the Spirit in the wilderness, where for
forty days he was tempted by the devil. He ate nothing at all during those days,
and when they were over, he was famished. The devil said to him, ‘If you are the
Son of God, command this stone to become a loaf of bread.’ Jesus answered him,
‘It is written, “One does not live by bread alone.” ’Then the devil led him up
and showed him in an instant all the kingdoms of the world. And the devil said
to him, ‘To you I will give their glory and all this authority; for it has been
given over to me, and I give it to anyone I please. If you, then, will worship
me, it will all be yours. ’Jesus answered him, ‘It is written, “Worship the Lord
your God, and serve only him.” ’Then the devil took him to Jerusalem, and placed
him on the pinnacle of the temple, saying to him, ‘If you are the Son of God,
throw yourself down from here, for it is written, “He will command his angels
concerning you, to protect you”, and “On their hands they will bear you up, so
that you will not dash your foot against a stone.” ’Jesus answered him, ‘It is
said, “Do not put the Lord your God to the test.” ’When the devil had finished
every test, he departed from him until an opportune time.”
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on
April 07-08/2022
Saudi Arabia returns its ambassador to Lebanon
IMF, Lebanon reach staff-level agreement on $3 billion financing program
Aoun signs electoral funds law, says all measures taken to hold timely vote
Miqati criticizes 'approach of ultimate negativity'
Mawlawi says no security incidents can affect elections
Report: BDL counts its gold for first time in at least 30 years
EU chief electoral observer meets Aoun, vows impartial monitoring of elections
Aoun warns of low voter turnout/Najia Housari/Arabic News/April 07/2022
A Gulf return to Lebanon should entail a new policy/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/April
07/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on April 07-08/2022
Ukraine tells NATO members to send arms before it's 'too late'
War in Ukraine: Latest developments
Russia accuses Ukraine of changing demands since Istanbul talks
Timeline of Yemen’s seven-year conflict
Yemen's president steps aside amid efforts to end war
Iraqi defense shot down drone near base hosting US troops
Turkey suspends trial of Saudi suspects in Khashoggi killing
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published on April 07-08/2022
The Guns Of August' In The Middle
East?/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/April 08/2022
The negative consequences of normalizing ties with Iran/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/April 07/ 2022
Why implementing Paris Agreement is a case of now or never/ Andrew Hammond/Arab
News/April 07/ 2022
Failed refugees, musicians left to starve in Afghanistan/Tala Jarjour/Arab
News/April 07/ 2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on April 07-08/2022
Saudi Arabia returns its ambassador
to Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/April
08/2022
Saudi Arabia announced Thursday it was sending back its ambassador to Lebanon,
five months after a row erupted over the Riyadh-led military intervention in
Yemen.The foreign ministry "announces the return of the ambassador... to the
sisterly Republic of Lebanon," read a statement carried by Saudi state media.
The return of the ambassador comes "in response to the calls and appeals of the
moderate national political forces in Lebanon," the statement said. It added
that Lebanon has agreed to "stop all political, military and security activities
affecting" Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab nations.
Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Miqati meanwhile announced that Kuwait will also
return its ambassador to Beirut "before the end of the week." A diplomatic
crisis broke out last October after then-information minister George Kordahi was
quoted criticizing the Saudi role in Yemen, where a grinding war has produced
what the U.N. describes as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Kordahi, who
has since resigned, said in a television interview recorded prior to his
appointment as minister that the Huthi rebels fighting Yemen's
internationally-recognized government were "defending themselves... against an
external aggression." He said "homes, villages, funerals and weddings were being
bombed" by the Saudi-led coalition, and called the war in Yemen "futile." The
Huthis are backed by Saudi arch-rival Iran, which has significant influence in
Lebanon, where it backs the powerful Hizbullah.
In response to the remarks Riyadh recalled its ambassador and ordered the
Lebanese envoy to leave the kingdom within 48 hours. Three other Gulf states --
the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait -- sided with Saudi Arabia and
expelled Lebanese envoys. The row, which has also seen Saudi Arabia ban the
imports of Lebanese goods, was a blow to a country already in the grip of
crippling political and economic crises. Lebanon had been counting on financial
assistance from the Gulf to rescue its economy. Lebanon welcomed the Saudi
announcement. "We highly value the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's decision to return
its ambassador to Lebanon and we stress the fact that Lebanon is proud of its
Arab allegiance and is adamant on maintaining the best ties with Gulf nations,"
Prime Minister Najib Miqati tweeted. Lebanon's Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi
also praised the move. "Once again the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has proven, by
the return of its ambassador... that Lebanon is in its heart and conscience and
that it will never abandon it," Mawlawi said. "We will continue to work on
strengthening ties and we will not allow any harm or offense to come its way
from now on," he added. Saudi Arabia, which wields strong influence over many of
the smaller Gulf states, had stepped back from its former ally Lebanon in recent
years, angered by the influence of Hizbullah.Saudi Foreign Minister Prince
Faisal bin Farhan had blamed the row on Hizbullah and Iran's dominance over
Lebanese politics."There is no crisis with Lebanon but a crisis in Lebanon
because of Iranian dominance," he told Al-Arabiya television in October. "Hizbullah's
dominance of the political system in Lebanon worries us," he had said.
IMF, Lebanon reach staff-level agreement on $3
billion financing program
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/April 08/2022
The IMF announced Thursday that after months of negotiations it reached a
staff-level agreement to provide Lebanon with $3 billion in aid to help it
emerge from a severe economic crisis. The country has been battered by triple
digit inflation, soaring poverty rates, and the collapse of its currency since a
2020 debt default, and officials in Beirut applauded the announcement as it will
open the door to additional financial support. The deal is "a visa stamp for
donor countries to begin co-operating with Lebanon and to put Lebanon back on
the global finance map," Prime Minister Najib Miqati told reporters after the
IMF announcement. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, who led the IMF mission to Lebanon, said
that once approved by the global crisis lender's board, the 46-month financing
program will "support the authorities' reform strategy to restore growth and
financial sustainability." However, approval is contingent on "timely
implementation of all prior actions and confirmation of international partners'
financial support," he said in a statement. Rigo blamed "many years of
unsustainable macroeconomic policies" for the crisis that came to a head in 2020
when Lebanon defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time in its history.
The Lebanese pound has lost about 90 percent of its value on the black market
and four out of five Lebanese now live below the poverty line, according to the
United Nations. The situation has been exacerbated by soaring inflation, the
Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as the August 2020 port of
Beirut explosion. "Lebanon is facing an unprecedented crisis, which has led to a
dramatic economic contraction and a large increase in poverty, unemployment, and
emigration," Rigo said, stressing that the program will support increased social
spending.
- 'In Lebanon's best interest' -
The aid would be released under the global lender's Extended Fund Facility but
only after the parliament in Beirut approves a 2022 budget and a new bank
secrecy law to fight corruption. It also will require cabinet approval of a debt
restructuring plan, with "sufficient creditor participation to restore debt
sustainability and close financing gaps," Rigo said. Officials "expressed their
strong commitment to carry out this reform program and sustain decisive
implementation during the upcoming parliamentary and Presidential elections,"
Rigo said. The IMF statement also said that Lebanese authorities, with IMF staff
support, have formulated a comprehensive economic reform program aiming to
rebuild the economy, restore financial sustainability, strengthen governance and
transparency, remove impediments to job creating growth, and increase social and
reconstruction spending. Miqati agreed that "these reforms are in Lebanon's best
interest," and said they will be fully implemented. In a joint statement with
President Michel Aoun, he said the IMF deal will help "to revive Lebanon and put
it on the path of recovery and solutions."The IMF also called for establishing a
credible and transparent monetary and exchange rate system as there are several
exchange rates for the Lebanese pound. The IMF added that there would be an
"externally assisted bank-by-bank evaluation for the 14 largest banks" in
Lebanon. Since the meltdown began, local banks have imposed informal capital
controls and there have been concerns that depositors will lose part of their
savings. Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Shami, who is leading the talks with the
IMF, said Lebanon's economy contracted 60% since the meltdown began more than
two years ago. He told LBCI TV that he hopes all the IMF "preconditions will be
implemented quickly" and that the deal has the backing of Aoun, Miqati and also
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who welcomed the agreement. Talks between
Lebanon and the IMF began in May 2020, then stopped for months amid a political
deadlock in the country. They resumed after Miqati took office last September
but no breakthrough had been made until Thursday's agreement was reached.
Aoun signs electoral funds law, says all measures
taken to hold timely vote
Naharnet/April 08/2022
President Michel Aoun on Thursday signed a law adopted by parliament for
including the expenses of the May 15 parliamentary polls in the 2022 state
budget, the Presidency said. Separately, Aoun met in Baabda with the head of the
European Union Election Observation Mission Lebanon 2022, Gyorgy Holvenyi, and
reassured him that “all measures have been taken in order to hold the elections
on time, in an atmosphere of freedom, democracy and transparency.” “Efforts are
ongoing to resolve the obstacles facing this important constitutional juncture,
despite the difficult economic and financial circumstances that Lebanon is going
through,” Aoun added. He also noted that the failure to approve electoral
megacenters for the May elections might lead to a lower voter turnout in light
of the transportation difficulties stemming from the country’s severe economic
and financial crisis.Moreover, Aoun asked the EU observation mission to monitor
expat voting, noting that it will be only the second time that emigrants take
part in the their country’s elections after “the 2018 achievement.”
Miqati criticizes 'approach of ultimate negativity'
Naharnet/April 08/2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati stressed Thursday that “major hopes” are pinned on
the upcoming parliamentary elections, adding that “it will be the first
practical translation of the orientations of the people who rebelled in squares”
in 2019, “especially the young generation.”
“Ever since the government was formed, there are parties in the country who have
been deliberately questioning everything and adopting the approach of ultimate
negativity in dealing with any matter,” Miqati decried. “As if it is required to
prevent the country from rising again and to keep it in the attrition phase
instead of allowing it to enter the phase of financial, economic and social
recovery,” the premier added. He accordingly reiterated his call for everyone to
“come together and shun tense rhetoric, especially in these circumstances that
we are going through, in order to give our country a chance to recover.”
Mawlawi says no security incidents can affect
elections
Naharnet/April 08/2022
Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi on Thursday reassured that “no security
incidents” can affect the upcoming parliamentary elections, days after two
people were killed and three others were wounded in an armed clash between two
families in Tripoli. “The motives behind the Tripoli incidents were familial and
no security incidents can affect the elections,” Mawlawi announced after an
emergency meeting for the Central Security Council. “The Internal Security
Forces and the army will organize joint patrols to control security in Tripoli
and reassure residents,” the Minister added. According to an army statement, two
people were killed and three others injured in a clash between the Issa and
al-Ali families in Tripoli’s Bab al-Tabbaneh neighborhood.
Report: BDL counts its gold for first time in at
least 30 years
Naharnet/April 08/2022
Lebanon’s central bank, also known as Banque du Liban (BDL), is “counting its
gold reserves for the first time in at least three decades,” as the
international community “pressures the cash-strapped country to evaluate its
assets to qualify for a bail-out,” English-language Emirati newspaper The
National reported on Thursday. “About 20 per cent of the time-consuming exercise
has been completed in the past two years,” two senior civil servants told The
National. BDL’s employees had to pause their work for months owing to the
Covid-19 pandemic, the daily said. “They have descended into the bank’s vaults
several times a week to weigh 12-kilogram gold ingots that are believed to
number 13,000 in total. One by one, the metal bars are placed on a scale,” The
National added. “It’s a very physical job,” said one of the sources. The bank
also holds around 700,000 coins. “The inventory is limited to checking that the
expected amount of gold is present. Audit company KPMG will then step in to
evaluate the metal’s worth,” the source said. The government requested an
inventory in March 2020 after it was made aware that another auditor, Deloitte,
had been unable to conduct one, said the sources. Analysts say the inventory
plays a crucial role in better understanding the state’s losses. “If the gold’s
value is lower than estimated, then BDL’s losses would be higher than reported
by this government,” said Mike Azar, a financial analyst. Deputy Prime Minister
Saadeh Shami has estimated the banking sector’s losses at more than $70 billion.
A leaked report by Deloitte shows that four years ago, it evaluated Banque du
Liban’s gold reserves at close to $18 billion, of which 60 percent is held in
Beirut, and the rest at the U.S. Federal Reserve. The sources said they had no
doubt that vast amounts of gold were inside BDL’s vaults. “It’s not a trust
issue. But inventories need to be done, just like any company should know what
they have in stock,” said one. Economist Kamal Hamdan said he does not believe
that the central bank has counted its gold since the civil war. It remains
unclear whether the gold ingots meet today’s standards of purity. A source with
knowledge of the subject said the central bank's gold might not meet the London
Bullion Market Association’s benchmark because it was bought over 50 years ago.
“Gold bought before the 1970s is not of London Good Delivery standard and
therefore cannot be easily sold,” they said.
EU chief electoral observer meets Aoun, vows
impartial monitoring of elections
Naharnet/April 08/2022
The head of the European Union Election Observation Mission Lebanon 2022, Gyorgy
Holvenyi, met Thursday in Baabda with President Michel Aoun and announced that
around 200 observers will monitor Lebanon’s May 15 parliamentary elections in a
professional, transparent and impartial manner, the Lebanese Presidency said. In
a tweet, Holvenyi said he met with Aoun to “explain about the Mission and its
work in fostering confidence and reinforcing the democratic process in the
country.” Speaking after the meeting, the EU official said the observation
mission comes in response to an invitation from the Lebanese Ministry of
Interior and Municipalities. “Reflecting its continued commitment to support
credible, transparent and inclusive elections in Lebanon, the European Union
also observed the 2005, 2009 and 2018 elections. EU EOMs aim to promote
democracy and human rights in a framework of cooperation with third countries.
The EU EOM is a demonstration of the EU's commitment to democracy and peace in
Lebanon,” Holvenyi added. “Our observation will cover all the regions of
Lebanon. The mission arrived on 27 March and will stay until 6 June. On election
day, the mission will comprise some 200 observers from all 27 EU member states,
Norway and Switzerland,” he said. The core team had arrived in Beirut on March
27 and is composed of 10 election experts covering the different aspects of the
electoral process. In mid-April, 30 long-term observers will be deployed in
teams of two to cover all the regions of the country, Holvenyi added. “I will be
back to Lebanon before elections for my second visit, but our team composed by
our analysts and our observers will be here all the time. The EU Election
Observation Mission will remain in the country until the conclusion of the
electoral process,” the EU official noted. He concluded by saying that the EU
EOM will conduct a comprehensive analysis of the electoral process, based on
long-term observation, and that its final report will include a final assessment
of the electoral process and “a set of recommendations for possible reforms to
improve future electoral processes.”
Aoun warns of low voter turnout
Najia Housari/Arabic News/April 07/2022
As a result of the financial crisis in the country, increasingly impoverished
citizens are prioritizing food over healthcare, Doctors Without Borders warns
‘Opposition forces that claim to confront the ruling authority and corruption
are no longer concerned with people’s suffering but are focusing on their own
ambitions,’ said workers union chief
BEIRUT: Gyorgy Holvenyi, the head of the EU’s Electoral Observation Mission,
said on Thursday that about 200 observers will monitor the Lebanese
parliamentary elections on May 15 and will do so with “all transparency and
impartiality.”
Part of the team arrived in Lebanon on March 27 and will remain there until June
6, he told Lebanese President Michel Aoun.
Holvenyi said the observers will produce a detailed assessment of the election
process, as was done during the previous electoral cycle. They will also monitor
the voting process for expatriates in several European countries in accordance
with the same standards and rules applied in Lebanon, he added.
Aoun said that “work is underway to overcome obstacles to holding the elections
despite the difficult economic and financial conditions that Lebanon is going
through, which could have been mitigated for voters if mega centers had been
adopted.”
He blamed the legislative authority for this. The aim of the mega centers Aoun
favors is to allow voters to cast their ballots outside the areas in which they
are registered, meaning they would not have to return to their hometowns to
vote. There were concerns among some, however, that if the creation of such
centers was approved for the current election cycle it could lead to delays or
postponement.
Aoun expressed concern that the rejection of the mega centers will result in low
voter turnout because rising fuel prices as a result of the financial crisis in
the country will mean additional expense for voters who have to travel further
to vote.
A judicial source told Arab News that 45 judges in Lebanon have so far rejected
the possibility that they will oversee the vote-counting process. Public
Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oweidat previously submitted a letter about this to the
Ministry of Justice and urged the appointment of alternatives.
The source said: “The judges will refrain from participating given the economic
conditions and the low wages they would receive for more than 24 hours of work.”
The source also expressed concern that “staff in public institutions could
refrain from supervising the electoral process amid the low wages and long
working hours.”
On Thursday, Aoun signed a law, approved by parliament, authorizing an
extraordinary allocation in the 2022 general budget for the General Directorate
of Political Affairs of the Ministry of Interior, the General Security and the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs to cover the costs of the elections at home and
abroad.
The total amount is 620 billion Lebanese pounds ($31 million, based on the
Central Bank’s Sayrafa exchange rate of 20,000 pounds to the dollar). It will be
distributed as follows: 260 billion pounds for the Ministry of Interior, 300
billion pounds to cover the costs of issuing 1 million Lebanese passports, and
60 billion pounds to cover the expense of organizing polling in other countries
for expatriates.
Political parties have been organizing special events in an effort to encourage
hesitant or reluctant voters since the official electoral lists were announced.
Despite this there is still widespread skepticism that the elections will take
place next month as scheduled.
However, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Thursday: “Ever since the
government was formed, we keep hearing people deliberately doubting everything
we do in this country — as if they want to prevent Lebanon from rising once
again and achieving financial, economic and social recovery.
“I call on all people to find common ground and steer clear of tensions.”
He added that that there is great hope attached to the elections, especially
among the younger generation.
Political analysts believe that many people are questioning the realistic
chances of the elections going ahead because of the prevailing poor living
conditions in the country as a result of the financial crisis, and public
resentment of a political elite that is once again standing for election under
unconvincing slogans.
The financial situation has also created power supply problems across the
country, which could disrupt the provision of electricity to polling stations
and vote counting centers in all regions.
Mikati confirmed during a cabinet session on Wednesday that his government will
not surrender “in the face of the difficult social and economic situation.” He
stressed the need to invite all sections of society to cooperate to overcome the
“difficult situation we are experiencing, and not spread panic and despair among
the Lebanese.”
On Thursday, Medecins Sans Frontieres, also known as Doctors Without Borders,
warned that financial pressures are forcing people to prioritize the purchase of
food over healthcare in a country where privatization of medical services is
rampant.
The organization, which has organized health projects in Wadi Khaled in northern
Lebanon, one of the poorest parts of the country, said: “To avoid spending
money, people delay seeking care until their health condition deteriorates and
reaches a critical degree. Sometimes, it will be too late.”
Marcelo Fernandez, the head of the MSF mission in Lebanon, said: “With the
increasing poverty rates, communities living on the edge of the poverty line are
likely to neglect preventive care or try to treat diseases on their own.
“What we are witnessing in Wadi Khaled is a vivid example of that and people in
fragile conditions are the most affected.”
The National Federation of Trade Unions and Employees in Lebanon has announced
that it will take to the streets on Labor Day, May 1, in a comprehensive show of
civil disobedience to protest against poor working conditions and the greed its
says it said is manipulating prices and the black market.
Castro Abdullah, the federation’s president, said food prices have increased by
1,500 percent, while hospitals are failing to meet required moral and
humanitarian standards.
He accused candidates standing for election next month of exploiting the
prevailing conditions in the most horrific ways.
“The opposition forces that claim to confront the ruling authority and
corruption are no longer concerned with the people’s suffering but are rather
focusing on their own ambitions, claiming that change can only be achieved
through parliament,” said Abdullah.
حنين غدار: عودة الخليج إلى لبنان يجب أن تستلزم سياسة
جديدة
A Gulf return to Lebanon should entail a new policy
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/April 07/2022
After months of a diplomatic row between Lebanon and Gulf countries and the
withdrawal of four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ambassadors from Beirut,
political and media reports revealed that the Saudi ambassador Walid Bukhari
could return to Lebanon. There is no confirmed date yet, but the French
diplomatic effort, and exchange of friendlier statements between Saudi Arabia
and Lebanon’s prime minister Najib Mikati, validate these reports.
Amid the crisis, GCC countries presented to Lebanon – via the Kuwaiti foreign
minister Ahmed Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Sabah – a list of conditions to be
fulfilled for the ambassadors to return, most of which are complicated, such as
the implementation of UNSCR 1559 and disarming Hezbollah. It did not implement
the requirements. Hezbollah continues to use Lebanon as a springboard to support
the Houthis in Yemen.
For the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app.
The return of the ambassadors does not mean that relationships are going back to
where they were. That will take a long time, and Lebanon still has to show signs
of cooperation. However, the return of the ambassadors to Lebanon could be
beneficial on two levels – politically support and assure a fragmented Sunni
community and some opposition groups ahead of elections, and make sure Iran
doesn’t fill all the void left by international actors. Eventually, Lebanon
could be part of a new regional approach to confront Iran, and some Gulf
presence could come in handy.
A regional effort to confront Iran seems to be in the making, and it could
become clear after following the conclusion of the Vienna talks, with a new deal
signed. The several meetings in the region, with strong participation of the UAE,
Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, reflect a broader strategic shift among regional
players from dependency on the US to self-reliance. It could translate this
regional shift into a more robust strategy in Iran’s headquarters in Lebanon.
Only in this context the return of the ambassadors makes sense.
From Sharm el-Sheik to al-Aqaba, and then the Negev, it has become evident that
a regional coalition is taking shape, with two priorities; economic cooperation
and confronting Iran’s regional power and operations. It is too early to say if
this coalition will be successful or not, and it is not sure if countries
involved in this new regional partnership see Iran’s threat the same way or
could even agree on ways to deal with Iran and its proxies. Regardless, a shift
in the broader perspective has seen each country dealing with threats
independently, and a decision to cooperate is confirmed.
Accordingly, the regional policy for Lebanon will also shift from complete
abandonment and diplomatic boycott to a new form of confrontation, one that
could be military, economic, or political. It is still early to assume what form
this confrontation will take, depending on the many scenarios and elections
outcomes. Still, one thing needs to be clear for both internal and regional
actors: previous strategies failed because they mainly relied on money and
political spending. Hezbollah won because they think long-term and understand
how to build roots and grow organically. Whatever regional shifts are taking
place, considering this is important.
Israel’s strategy in Lebanon focuses on security interests and military
confrontations, and the Saudis on political spending.
Previous policies strengthened sectarian divides and indirectly ignored
corruption. While many assisted several communities and institutions, this
assistance was not sustainable and hinged on the Hariri political dynasty. None
has weakened Iran in Lebanon or the region; therefore, any new plan needs to
invest in building roots and confronting Hezbollah in spaces where it is
vulnerable but also where the Lebanese people could benefit.
If the Gulf ambassadors return to Lebanon, and if this step was indeed part of a
new regional policy that requires a diplomatic presence, it is vital to work
outside and against the sectarian system which has led Lebanon to the current
financial, economic, and political crises. It is also essential to think
long-term and build sustainable policies that aim to strengthen institutions,
not individuals, and help the people, not the old tired traditional parties that
have failed to protect anyone but themselves.
As for the new French Gulf-Lebanon initiative, for it to work this time around,
the French diplomatic effort needs to double down on urgent issues in Lebanon,
such as corruption, port investigations, and elections transparency. This is in
addition to tackling Gulf concerns, such as border control, smuggling, and
Lebanon’s neutrality. President Emanuel Macron could look into the new EU
framework to impose sanctions on individuals involved in corruption, smuggling,
and obstructing justice. The framework is in place, and now is the perfect time
to apply it.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on
April 07-08/2022
Ukraine tells NATO
members to send arms before it's 'too late'
Agence France Presse/April
08/2022
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said
Thursday he expected NATO members to send Kyiv the weapons it needs but insisted
they had to act quickly before Russia launches another major offensive.
"Either you help us now and I'm speaking about days, not weeks, or your help
will come too late. And many people will die, many civilians will lose their
homes, many villages will be destroyed. Exactly because this help came too
late," Kuleba said after meeting NATO foreign ministers in Brussels.
War in Ukraine: Latest developments
Agence France Presse/April 08/2022
Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine:
'Last chance' to leave East -
A Ukrainian official warns residents in the east that they have a "last chance"
to flee before a major Russian offensive expected in the region. "These few days
may be the last chance to leave," says Sergiy Gaiday, governor of the Lugansk
region, where the city of Severodonetsk is coming under sustained artillery and
rocket fire. The head of the neighboring Donetsk region vows to also step up
evacuations.
U.N. rights body suspension -
The U.N. General Assembly votes Thursday on suspending Russia from the UN Human
Rights Council as punishment for invading Ukraine.Russia has warned that
expelling it from multilateral forums will make dialogue even more difficult.
New plea for weapons -
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba calls on NATO members to provide Kyiv
with all the weaponry it needs to fight Russia. "My agenda is very simple. It
has only three items on it. It's weapons, weapons, and weapons," Kuleba tells
journalists at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Hungary 'helping' Putin -
Ukraine accused its neighbor and Kremlin-ally Hungary of appeasing Russian
aggression and undermining EU unity on sanctions in the wake of Viktor Orban's
reelection as prime minister.Orban says he is prepared to pay for Russian gas in
rubles, a demand of Putin's that was rejected by the West. Orban has also
offered to host peace talks.
'Major war crimes': Biden -
U.S. President Joe Biden denounces the killing of Ukrainian civilians in the
town of Bucha allegedly by Russian troops as "major war crimes."Ukrainian
officials warn other areas may have suffered worse, including nearby Borodianka.
"Locals talk about how planes came in during the first days of the war and fired
rockets at them from low altitudes," Ukraine's Interior Minister Denys
Monastyrsky tells local media.
French anger over tweet
The French government summons Russia's ambassador to Paris in protest after his
embassy posted a photo on Twitter claiming to show a Ukrainian "film set" used
to stage civilian killings in Bucha. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian
calls the tweet "obscene."
Shell faces $5bn hit
British energy giant Shell says its exit from Russia could cost it up to $5
billion (4.6 billion euros) in the first quarter of the year. Shell announced it
was selling its stakes in joint ventures with Russian state energy giant Gazprom
shortly after the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine.
Putin daughters sanctioned
The United States announces sanctions on two of Putin's daughters, saying family
members are known to hide the Russian president's wealth. It also declared "full
blocking" sanctions on Russia's largest public and private financial
institutions, Sberbank and Alfa Bank, and says all new U.S. investments in
Russia are now prohibited. The EU is also looking to add Putin's daughters to
its sanctions blacklist. The UK also adds new energy and banking sanctions and
bans new British investments in Russia.
Marathon bars Russians, Belarusians
Organizers of the Boston Marathon say Russian and Belarusian runners will be
barred over the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia accuses Ukraine of changing demands since
Istanbul talks
Agence France Presse/April 08/2022
Russia on Thursday accused Ukrainian negotiators of changing demands since last
month's talks in Istanbul, claiming that Kyiv was not interested in ending
fighting. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Istanbul in March but there
have been few signs of the conflict abating on the ground. Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said that on Wednesday the Ukrainian side had presented
its draft agreement. "It shows a departure from the most important provisions
spelled out at the meeting in Istanbul on March 29," he said. In Turkey, "the
Ukrainians clearly stated that future (international) security guarantees for
Ukraine do not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol," Lavrov said, referring to
territory Moscow annexed in 2014. "In yesterday's draft, this clear statement is
missing," he added. He also said that Ukrainians wanted the leaders of Russia
and Ukraine to discuss Crimea and separatist-held territory in eastern Ukraine
face-to-face. "At the next stage, the Ukrainian side will certainly ask for the
withdrawal of troops and will put forward new preconditions," Lavrov predicted.
"This is unacceptable."He accused Ukrainian authorities of seeking to scupper
talks and not wanting to end more than a month of fighting. "We see this as a
manifestation of the fact that the Kyiv regime is controlled by Washington and
its allies, who are pushing President Volodymyr Zelensky to continue
hostilities," Lavrov said.
Timeline of Yemen’s seven-year conflict
AFP/April 07, 2022
DUBAI: Yemen has for more than seven years been mired in a war pitting
Iran-backed rebels against government forces.
The conflict has left about 380,000 people dead, according to the UN, either
directly in the fighting or as a result of famine and disease.
The Houthi rebels advance from their stronghold in Yemen’s northern mountains to
seize the capital Sanaa in September 2014.
They ally themselves with forces loyal to ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who
was toppled in a 2011 uprising, before overrunning the lifeline Red Sea port of
Hodeidah.
In February 2015, President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi flees to the second city
Aden, on Yemen’s south coast. The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen
enters the conflict in March 2015 with airstrikes targeting the rebels.
Washington says it is contributing logistics and intelligence.
As the rebels advance on Aden, Hadi flees to Saudi Arabia. The coalition’s
intervention helps pro-government forces secure Aden.
In October, coalition forces take control of the Bab Al-Mandab strait at the
southern gates of the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest and most strategic
waterways.
In June 2018, government fighters backed by coalition ground forces launch an
offensive to retake Hodeidah, a key entry point for humanitarian aid.
In December, following negotiations in Sweden, the UN announces a ceasefire in
Hodeidah. But it is marred by clashes between rebels and pro-government
soldiers.
The anti-Houthi camp is divided between southern separatists and northern
unionists loyal to Hadi’s government.
The separatists occupy the presidential palace in Aden in January 2018.
In August 2019, separatists again clash with unionist troops.
A power-sharing agreement is negotiated.
The rebels escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia, using drones and missiles.
A major hit on Sept. 14, 2019 on the giant Abqaiq oil processing plant and
Khurais oil field affects the oil market.
Riyadh and Washington accuse Iran of being behind the attack, which it denies.
In February 2021, the US ends its support for the coalition’s military
operations and removes the Houthis from a “terrorist” blacklist.
Shortly afterward, the rebels resume an offensive to seize Yemen’s oil-rich
Marib province, the government’s last northern stronghold.
In January 2022, the rebels take aim at the UAE, first seizing an Emirati-flagged
vessel in the Red Sea and then carrying out a drone and missile attack on an oil
facility in Abu Dhabi that kills three workers.
In February, Washington announces it is sending the destroyer USS Cole and
fighter jets to Abu Dhabi to bolster its defenses.
In March, the rebels carry out a new series of drone and missile attacks on
Saudi oil facilities, one of which triggers a huge fire near Jeddah’s Formula
One circuit with drivers on the track.
On March 26, the rebels call a unilateral three-day truce.
On March 29, the Saudi-led coalition announce their own ceasefire, which
coincides with the opening of talks in the Saudi capital that the Houthis
refused to attend.
A UN-brokered ceasefire, the first nationwide truce since 2016, starts on the
first day of Ramadan on April 2.
The coalition also agrees to allow fuel shipments into Hodeidah and commercial
flights to resume from rebel-held Sanaa, key rebel demands. The two sides trade
allegations of violations but the ceasefire largely holds.
On April 5, President Hadi announces from Riyadh that he is handing his powers
to a new leadership council.
Saudi Arabia welcomes the announcement and pledges $3 billion in aid and
support, some of it to be paid by the UAE.
Yemen's president steps aside amid
efforts to end war
Associated Press/April 08/2022
Yemen's exiled president stepped aside and transferred his powers to a
presidential council on Thursday, as international and regional efforts to end
the country's long-running civil war gained momentum with a two-month truce.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, major players in the conflict appear
to have played a role in President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's decision, quickly
welcoming it with a pledge of $3 billion in aid. The head of the new council has
close ties to Riyadh. Whether the switch will expedite an end to the grinding
war remains to be seen, as U.N.-sponsored negotiations have been at an impasse
and fighting, airstrikes and missile attacks continued until late last month.
The Houthis did not immediately comment on Hadi's announcement. Hadi said the
newly established council will run the internationally recognized government and
lead negotiations with the Iranian-backed Houthis, according to a statement
aired on state-run media. The move is meant to unify the anti-Houthi camp after
years of infighting and disputes, and was almost certainly orchestrated in
Riyadh, where Yemeni factions were meeting over the past week to discuss efforts
to end the war. "With this declaration a Presidential Leadership Council shall
be established to complete the implementation of the tasks of the transitional
period. I irreversibly delegate to the Presidential Leadership Council my full
powers," Hadi declared on Yemen's state-run TV. Hadi also sacked Vice President
Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a powerful military figure, and also delegated al-Ahmar's
powers to the presidential council. The presidential council is chaired by
Rashad al-Alimi, an advisor to Hadi and former interior minister with the
government of late strongman President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Al-Alimi enjoys close
ties with Saudi Arabia and other political groups inside Yemen, including the
powerful Islah party — the transnational Muslim Brotherhood's branch in Yemen.
The council has seven members, including Aydarous al-Zubaidi, head of the
secessionist Southern Transitional Council — an umbrella group of heavily armed
and well-financed militias propped up by the UAE since 2015. Sheikh Sultan al-Aradah,
the powerful governor of energy-rich Marib province, was also named a member of
the council. So was Tariq Saleh, a militia leader and nephew of the late
president who has close ties with the UAE. Hadi was named president of Yemen in
2012 with a mission to oversee a democratic transition following its Arab Spring
uprising that ended Saleh's longtime rule. However, the Houthis, a religious
movement turned rebel militia, allied with Saleh and seized the capital Sanaa in
2014, forcing Hadi and his government into exile in Saudi Arabia.
Months later, Saudi Arabia formed a military coalition and entered the war to
try to restore Hadi's government to power. The conflict has in recent years
become a regional proxy war that has killed more than 150,000 people, including
over 14.500 civilians. It has also created one of the worst humanitarian crises
in the world. Welcoming Hadi's move, Saudi Arabia urged the presidential council
to embark on U.N.-led negotiations with the Houthis to find a "political, final
and comprehensive" settlement to the conflict, according to the state-run Saudi
Press Agency. Powerful Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also met with
the council head and its members, according to Saudi state-run TV. The warring
sides announced a two-month cease-fire earlier this month, the first nationwide
truce in Yemen in six years. Hadi's announcement came as Yemeni talks called by
the Saudi-based Gulf Cooperation Council entered their final day on Thursday.
The Houthis boycotted the GCC-facilitated efforts because they're taking place
in Saudi Arabia, their adversary's territory.
Iraqi defense shot down drone near base hosting US
troops
REUTERS/April 08, 2022
RAMADI, Iraq: Defense systems at Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad air base, which hosts US
forces, intercepted and shot down a drone while it was hovering near the base,
Iraqi security sources said late on Thursday. The sources said it was not clear
whether the drone was on a surveillance mission or if it was carrying any
explosives. No damages or casualties were reported, the sources added. Iraqi
officials were not immediately available for comment.
Turkey suspends trial of Saudi suspects
in Khashoggi killing
Associated Press/April 08/2022
A Turkish court ruled Thursday to suspend the trial in absentia of 26 Saudis
accused in the gruesome killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and
for the case to be transferred to Saudi Arabia.
Kaghoggi, a United States resident who wrote for the Washington Post, was killed
on Oct. 2, 2018, at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, where he had gone for an
appointment to collect documents required for him to marry his Turkish fiancee,
Hatice Cengiz. He never emerged from the building.
The court's decision comes despite warnings from human rights groups that
turning the case over to the kingdom would lead to a cover up of the killing
which has cast suspicion on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
It also comes as Turkey, which is in the throes of an economic downturn, has
been trying to repair its troubled relationship with Saudi Arabia and an array
of other countries in its region. Some media reports have claimed that Riyadh
has made improved relations conditional on Turkey dropping the case against the
Saudis. Turkish officials alleged that Khashoggi, who wrote critically about the
crown prince, was killed and then dismembered with a bone saw inside the
consulate by a team of Saudi agents sent to Istanbul. The group included a
forensic doctor, intelligence and security officers and individuals who worked
for the crown prince's office. His remains have not been found. Last week, the
prosecutor in the case recommended that the case be transferred to the kingdom,
arguing that the trial in Turkey would remain inconclusive. Turkey's justice
minister supported the recommendation, adding that the trial in Turkey would
resume if the Turkish court is not satisfied with the outcome of proceedings in
the kingdom. It was not clear however, if Saudi Arabia, which has already put
some of the defendants on trial behind closed door, would open a new trial. The
court ruled to halt the trial in line with the Justice Ministry's "positive
opinion," the private DHA news agency reported. Human rights advocates had urged
Turkey not to transfer the case to Saudi Arabia. "By transferring the case of a
murder that was committed on its territory, Turkey will be knowingly and
willingly sending the case back into the hands of those who bare its
responsibility," said Amnesty International's Secretary General Agnes Callamard.
"Indeed, the Saudi system has repeatedly failed to cooperate with the Turkish
prosecutor and it is clear that justice cannot be delivered by a Saudi court."
"What has happened to Turkey's declared commitment that justice must prevail for
this gruesome murder and that this case would never become a pawn in political
calculations and interest?" she asked.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch said: "Given the complete lack of judicial
independence in Saudi Arabia, the role of the Saudi government in Khashoggi's
killing, its past attempts at obstructing justice, and a criminal justice system
that fails to satisfy basic standards of fairness, chances of a fair trial for
the Khashoggi case in Saudi Arabia are close to nil." Turkey apparently had the
Saudi Consulate bugged and shared audio of the killing with the CIA, among
others. The slaying sparked international outrage and condemnation. Western
intelligence agencies, as well as the U.S. Congress, have said that an operation
of that magnitude could not have happened without knowledge of the
prince.Turkey, which vowed to shed light on the brutal killing, began
prosecuting the defendants in absentia in 2020 after Saudi Arabia rejected
requests for their extradition. The defendants included two former aides of the
prince.
Some of the men were put on trial in Riyadh behind closed doors. A Saudi court
issued a final verdict in 2020 that sentenced five mid-level officials and
operatives to 20-year jail terms. The court had originally ordered the death
penalty, but reduced the punishment after Khashoggi's son Salah, who lives in
Saudi Arabia, announced that he forgave the defendants. Three others were
sentenced to lesser jail terms.
The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources publishedon April 06-07/2022
The Guns Of August' In The Middle East?
Alberto M. Fernandez/ MEMRI/April 08/2022
There was a time, many decades ago, when ruling elites in the Middle East, I am
referring here principally to the Arab world, did not quite understand the
United States. Almost 40 years ago, when I first set foot in the region as a
young diplomat, you could see the curiosity and the illusions. But that has not
been true for a very long time. Now when video appears on Twitter of President
Biden seemingly wandering around aimlessly and confused at a White House event,
Arabic-speaking elites not only see it but have their own hot takes about it.
This sense of "knowing what America is up to and it is not anything good" deeply
informs policy formulation by Arab states and Israel over the past few months.
The simplistic hope that the new American Administration "will be like Obama but
maybe slightly better" has been replaced by "like Obama but even worse." The
mindset that saw America like a distracted but usually benevolent hegemon has
been replaced by one angry and dismayed that sees America as actually hostile to
many Arab states. This is principally due, of course, to fears of a renewed
nuclear deal by the United States with Iran, one that may benefit the United
States but will certainly benefit and empower Iran (and by extension, Russia).
The "losers" would be the Arab states (particularly Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates), Israel, and even Turkey. While Turkey helped Iran evade
sanctions and make money, it also competes against Iran in other fields.
Much of the recent diplomatic and political activity in the region can be seen
within the context of preparing for a worst-case scenario of a more intense
confrontation with Iran escalating into open regional warfare in the near
future:
One part of the motivation for the Abraham Accords is due to concerns about
Iranian aggression, certainly on the part of Gulf states involved in these
agreements.
The attempt to rehabilitate brutal Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad and his
regime is about trying to pry him, as much as possible, from the Iranian grip.
Probably a lost cause, but an effort seen by Arab states as worthwhile.
The (relative) openness by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel to mend fences with
the only recently adversarial Turkish President Erdoğan, now that he has major
economic challenges, can also be seen as part of an effort to lineup potential
allies or to at least close ranks among regional Sunni Muslims facing the
Iranian threat.
Efforts to reach out to the Iraqi leadership, particularly Prime Minister
Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, also make sense as part of a larger effort to firm up Arab
ranks as much as possible ahead of a confrontation with Iran. Unfortunately, Al-Kadhimi
has limited sway over Iran's own militias and numerous agents embedded inside
the Iraqi bureaucracy.
Outreach to Russia and China, both partners of Iran and also partial substitutes
for an America that cannot fully be trusted, can be seen as part of the same
preparation. An Iran with ballistic missiles and drones and possibly even a
nuclear bomb will have to be confronted in a like manner and both Moscow and
Beijing could be helpful to Arab states in this regard.
Even the support of certain Arab states for the odious military dictatorship in
distant Sudan has a potential Iran dimension. Sudanese troops have fought in
wars in both Yemen and Libya and could be used elsewhere if Sudan's generals are
paid. Arab states may also remember when a bankrupt, desperate Sudanese regime
under Omar Al-Bashir actually had security ties with Iran, at the expense of the
Arabs, not so long ago.
There is, over the region as a whole, more than a whiff of August 1914 when much
of Europe was tied up into interlocking alliances causing a confrontation in the
Balkans to become a full-fledged continental war. As Arab states and Israel seek
to lock in alliances and smooth over past tensions, so has Iran sought to
strengthen the offensive power of its allies on the frontlines in Gaza, Lebanon,
Yemen, and Iraq. The hope now is that, perhaps because of the Ukraine War and
Iranian greediness, a new version of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) will not actually happen. For an American Administration now obsessed
with bringing down Russia, the fact that a new Iranian agreement will reward the
Putin regime is, at least publicly, deeply embarrassing given the war hysteria
sweeping American elites. Putin's aggression in Ukraine may have inadvertently
prevented Iran from gaining an economic windfall. It has certainly delayed an
agreement.
But the sense in the region is that, JCPOA-2 or not, the confrontation with an
already emboldened Iran is almost inevitable – a more direct confrontation than
previously seen in past proxy wars – and America is not to be fully counted as
being on the Israeli/Arab side. The result could be something we have not seen
in the region before, a sort of "regional world war" involving not just attacks
on or by proxies but between various states and players at the same time.
Everyone is hedging their bets, positioning themselves for a conflict whose full
parameters they cannot yet fully comprehend. Turkey moves closer to the Sunni
Arab states, even burying the Khashoggi case in hopes of a better relationship
with Riyadh. Meanwhile, newly minted American "major non-NATO ally" Qatar, ever
the contrarian, moves closer to Iran, hosting the head of the IRGC Navy in a
move that the Biden State Department called "deeply disappointing." Other Arab
states have had their own disappointments after the United States refused to
reconsider returning the Yemeni Houthis to an American terrorism list in the
wake of Houthi attacks on civilian targets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. By these
actions, Iran showed its ability to wage destabilizing economic warfare on both
those states – both of whom are seeking to remake and expand their economies –
through the attacks of its proxies. Both Arab states and Israel have expressed
concerns about the U.S. lifting sanctions on the IRGC, but this is only one
small part of the many possible concessions to Iran envisioned in the nuclear
talks in Vienna.
The contending blocs are relatively set. On one side Iran, Hezbollah-ruled
Lebanon, Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. The Assad
regime is also in this camp but may be too weak to be more than a safe haven for
Iranian-led forces. Qatar clearly leans toward this camp but will likely baulk
at any actual fighting should the confrontation reach that stage.
Against them are a bloc including Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis.
Possibly Sudan. Turkey is also a possibility but may wait it out to maximize its
position (unless its ally Azerbaijan is dragged into a war with Iran). The
American role is ambiguous, unlikely to get involved unless directly attacked,
with Iran possibly playing the role of forcing the Americans into a war they
want to avoid as happened with Japan and Germany in 1941. That would be the
supreme irony given that it is in Iran's interest for the Americans to be
bystanders.
The plans are laid by both sides. Still an eerie calm reigns so far over
Ramadan, the month of great Islamic battles, with Passover and Easter on the
horizon. Will open war come sometime this summer after a Ukrainian ceasefire,
after an Iranian nuclear agreement, or in lieu of one? This is uncharted
territory.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
The negative consequences of normalizing ties with Iran
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Any deal between Iran and the P5+1 world powers on the former’s nuclear program
should not lead to the belief that normalizing political relations with the
Tehran regime is safe and secure. This is due to the fact that the Iranian
government views international agreements as transitory and a means to an end,
with the ultimate goal of the theocratic establishment being the fulfillment of
its ideological and revolutionary principles and ideals. In other words, it is
extremely unlikely that any deal between the world powers and the Iranian regime
would change the core, underlying policies of the Islamic Republic. A clear
example is the previous nuclear deal. Some politicians, scholars and policy
analysts hoped that Iran would change its behavior after the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action was struck in 2015 and act as a constructive and modern nation
state. However, we ought to be cautious of conflating and intertwining our hopes
with the sociopolitical reality and underlying character of the Iranian regime.
The Tehran government’s fortunes shifted in 2015 after the signing of the
nuclear agreement, which led to the lifting of global sanctions. As a result,
the Islamic Republic became the recipient of significant geopolitical, strategic
and economic opportunities and rewards from the global powers. Iran’s leaders
could have capitalized on these opportunities in two different ways. The first
and most rational path would have been to focus their new status on the global
stage — their enhanced legitimacy and the additional revenues they received —
toward investing in improving the living standards of its citizens, advancing
the nation’s technological landscapes, avoiding interference in other countries’
affairs, refraining from the use of provocative and incendiary speeches against
other nations, refraining from intimidating other countries by their military
power, and instead trying to be a respected nation state in the region and on
the global arena.
Building ties with the Iranian regime will not necessarily make a foreign state
immune from its malign and destructive policies
But the Iranian leaders took a different path. Their modus operandi, which was
using their elevated status — as well as the economic opportunities offered by
the nuclear agreement and sanctions relief — to project their military power and
fund more proxies in the region. The Iranian regime chose to provoke other
nations with its ballistic missile capabilities, issue confrontational,
incendiary and irrational statements to antagonize other countries, to be an
ideological and revolutionary state with the goal of being treated as the
regional superpower at any cost, to impose its Shiite doctrine on other nations,
and act as an ideological cause. And the Islamic Republic decided to more
forcefully interfere in the domestic affairs of other nations, including Yemen,
Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
In addition, the Iranian regime’s military adventurism escalated, with the
region witnessing more Houthi rocket attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia
and the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria.
The EU, which also normalized relations with the Iranian regime, faced similar
negative consequences. The bloc’s member states were among the main targets of
Iran’s terrorist plots. The Iranian regime was implicated in a series of
assassinations, the seizure of European hostages and other hostile acts across
the continent, some successful, others not. European officials were able to foil
a terrorist attack targeting a large “Free Iran” convention in Paris in 2018,
which was attended by many high-level speakers. Iranian diplomat Assadollah
Assadi was last year sentenced to 20 years in prison in Belgium for his role in
the bomb plot. This shows that building ties with the Iranian regime will not
necessarily make a foreign state immune from its malign and destructive
policies. The EU would do well to recall what Winston Churchill famously said
about those that appease a rogue state: “Each one hopes that if he feeds the
crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last. All of them hope that the
storm will pass before their turn comes to be devoured. But I fear — I fear
greatly — the storm will not pass.”
In a nutshell, governments ought to be cautious of swiftly normalizing political
ties with the Iranian regime. International agreements with the Islamic Republic
do not change its destructive behavior or revolutionary principles. Instead,
deals with Tehran seem to only encourage the regime to more forcefully interfere
in the domestic affairs of other nations and to reassert its regional
preeminence and hegemonic ambitions.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political
scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Why implementing Paris Agreement is a case of now or never
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Climate change has long been seen as a challenge we have decades left to combat,
yet a hard-hitting report released on Monday has the stark message that it is a
case of “now or never.”
The study from the UN-convened Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns
that global emissions must start declining in under three years, with “immediate
and deep cuts,” and be slashed by 43 percent by 2030 if we are to limit the
average temperature rise to the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed under the 2015 Paris
Agreement. In short, we are at a crossroads as to whether we will seize the
opportunity to avoid climate catastrophe and have a “livable future.”
One of the most alarming findings is that, even if all the policies to cut
carbon dioxide emissions that governments put in place by the end of 2020 are
fully implemented, the IPCC says the world will still warm by 3.2 C this
century. So it is almost inevitable the 1.5 C threshold will be temporarily
exceeded, but we could return to below it by the end of the century.
This will, therefore, require big negative emissions in the second half of the
century, shortly after 2050, in order to limit warming to 1.5 C. This might
include technology to suck carbon dioxide from the skies, which some IPCC
participants are highly skeptical of.
These are big asks and it is, therefore, no coincidence that multiple deadlines
were missed last week in what was the longest report approval process in the
IPCC’s 34-year history. Whatever the future might hold technology-wise by
mid-century, there is little doubt that immediate measures are needed.
This includes the rapid expansion of the use of solar panels and wind turbines,
which have never been cheaper than they are now, having fallen in cost by about
85 percent over the past decade. We also need to make big changes in terms of
diet and lifestyle, such as walking more and eating more healthily, including
plant-based foods that have a low environmental impact.
The hard-hitting report may mean pessimism will grow in the coming months about
the future of global efforts to combat climate change. However, while the scale
of the challenge remains huge, there remains a pathway for a critical mass of
countries to ratchet up their emissions cuts to try to meet the targets agreed
in Paris.
We are at a crossroads as to whether we will seize the opportunity to avoid
climate catastrophe and have a ‘livable future’
To deliver on this agenda, the IPCC makes clear that more money is needed.
Finance levels are currently three to six times lower than the levels required
to limit warming to below even 2 C by 2030. Indeed, McKinsey estimates that the
world needs to invest some $9.2 trillion a year in the infrastructure of the
sectors most prone to carbon dioxide emissions in the coming three decades. As a
proportion of global gross domestic product, the total investment required would
be 6.8 percent, rising to as much as 8.8 percent between 2026 and 2030 before
falling — and the transformation becomes more expensive the longer that action
is delayed.
While this scale of investment is huge, it is not impossible to deliver and a
key question is what is now needed from governments to stimulate this agenda.
The roadmap for moving forward is already clear.
Firstly, implementation of the Paris deal will be most effective through
national laws, where politically feasible, which will send clear signals to the
private sector. The country “commitments” put forward so far will be most
credible — and durable beyond the next set of national elections — if they are
backed up by legislation, as this is more difficult to roll back than
regulation.
While the moves made by governments since Paris are not yet enough, that treaty
has crucially put in place the domestic legal frameworks that are the crucial
building blocks to measure, report, verify and manage greenhouse gas emissions.
Specifically, countries are required under the agreement to openly report on
emissions and their progress in reaching the goals in their national climate
plans submitted to the UN. Under last year’s Glasgow pact, states must also
update these yearly, rather than previously every half-decade, to highlight the
measures being pursued to implement the goals.
What this movement toward a more robust stance on climate change shows is the
scale of the transformation in attitudes already taking place among many
governments and wider societies across the globe. Many countries now view
tackling global warming as in the national self-interest and see, for instance,
that expanding domestic sources of renewable energy not only reduces emissions
but also increases energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil
fuels.
Reducing energy demand through greater efficiency reduces costs and increases
competitiveness. Improving resilience to the impacts of global warming also
makes economic sense. And domestic laws also give clear signals about the
direction of policy, reducing uncertainty, particularly for the private sector.
The ambition must be that these frameworks are replicated in even more countries
and progressively ratcheted up. Now is the time for more states to build what
could be a foundation of global sustainable development for billions of people
across the world, starting with implementation of the Paris Agreement.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Failed refugees, musicians left to starve in Afghanistan
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Now living in London, an Afghan musician expresses his relief as he observes the
ongoing welcome and the new processing protocols for Ukrainian refugees in the
UK and elsewhere. As in many countries across Europe, refugees from bombarded
areas of Ukraine are being offered safe housing, often in ordinary people’s
homes, in British towns and cities. But the response, officially on the part of
government and unofficially in the wider population, has not been manifested in
equal facilitation for refugees from other parts of the world who came knocking
on the former empire’s doors.
When the US and the UK announced the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan
last summer, the speed of their disentanglement took the world by surprise. In a
matter of a few weeks, thousands of Afghans found themselves in the unenviable
position of their country reverting to a military type of rule in which they had
no guarantees of safety or work, or even life.
We have heard in the news about security personnel, translators and other local
contractors who are yet to secure safe passage out of a country whose borders
have been all but sealed. We have also heard about the airlifting of thousands
of people, and hundreds of dogs. Despite major successes in an evacuation
mission that was working against time, criticism was directed to the UK prime
minister’s office for allegedly intervening in certain humanitarian rescue
efforts.
But what we have not heard about are the many more hundreds of vulnerable people
whose exit was not secured despite concerted efforts by some organizations and
many individuals in the UK and Europe who were trying to help. One such group
that has been largely ignored by the media are Afghan artists, especially
musicians. Seemingly peripheral to the general social problems typically given
media focus, musicians are not a negligible minority in the population.
Afghanistan is home to several ethnic groups whose diverse cultures make for a
proliferation of musical styles and repertoires, and a correspondingly large
number of people who practice these musical cultures and preserve them.
Intolerance for all instrumental music and melodic song for nonreligious
purposes remains the group’s modus operandi
In Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, music is not tolerated in any shape or form that
allows it to take on the name “music.” Readers may remember photos from the
1990s of knotted heaps of magnetic tape pulled out of cassettes and hung on rows
of trees along Afghan roads. Such displays, which came to symbolize the
Taliban’s antagonistic stance toward music, included broken instruments.
Intolerance for all instrumental music and melodic song for nonreligious
purposes remains the modus operandi in the Taliban’s view of a righteous
society. Musicians caught practicing their profession have been reporting
intimidation, violence and, in some cases, brutal beatings. But their biggest
concern is the loss of their livelihood.
Since the Taliban reassumed power, hundreds, even thousands, of musicians and
music teachers are no longer able to work. This is resulting in similarly high
numbers of families being left without income or the ability to earn a living.
The current Afghan economy is not such that it might allow for the absorption of
former musicians into the workforce, especially given their set of skills and
the general lack of work opportunities. The reality of the situation is
producing states of extreme poverty and suffering for the former musicians and
their dependents. Many, especially young children, have been suffering from
starvation and the adverse health effects of cold weather.
Two decades of relative cultural freedom in the country revived a generation of
tradition-bearers and young professionals who had hopes of a future in all kinds
of music in Afghanistan. These included popular music, song and different
varieties of instrumental and orchestral ensembles. The early 2000s had brought
the opening of new music schools and the reemergence of professional musical
training after decades of stagnation.
Being able to practice music publicly opened up possibilities and gave Afghan
musicians hope of a future where growth, opportunity and creative productivity
seemed conceivable. Suddenly, however, doing their job has become too dangerous
in times when the most meager of incomes is necessary to survive. Like many in
the vulnerable strata of a beleaguered society, Afghan musicians and their
families are, quite literally, left out in the cold.
• Tala Jarjour is author of “Sense and Sadness: Syriac Chant in Aleppo.” She is
visiting research fellow at King’s College London and associate fellow at Yale
College.