English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 08/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Temptation of Jesus
Luke 04/01-13: “Jesus, full of the Holy Spirit, returned from the Jordan and was led by the Spirit in the wilderness, where for forty days he was tempted by the devil. He ate nothing at all during those days, and when they were over, he was famished. The devil said to him, ‘If you are the Son of God, command this stone to become a loaf of bread.’ Jesus answered him, ‘It is written, “One does not live by bread alone.” ’Then the devil led him up and showed him in an instant all the kingdoms of the world. And the devil said to him, ‘To you I will give their glory and all this authority; for it has been given over to me, and I give it to anyone I please. If you, then, will worship me, it will all be yours. ’Jesus answered him, ‘It is written, “Worship the Lord your God, and serve only him.” ’Then the devil took him to Jerusalem, and placed him on the pinnacle of the temple, saying to him, ‘If you are the Son of God, throw yourself down from here, for it is written, “He will command his angels concerning you, to protect you”, and “On their hands they will bear you up, so that you will not dash your foot against a stone.” ’Jesus answered him, ‘It is said, “Do not put the Lord your God to the test.” ’When the devil had finished every test, he departed from him until an opportune time.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 07-08/2022
Saudi Arabia returns its ambassador to Lebanon
IMF, Lebanon reach staff-level agreement on $3 billion financing program
Aoun signs electoral funds law, says all measures taken to hold timely vote
Miqati criticizes 'approach of ultimate negativity'
Mawlawi says no security incidents can affect elections
Report: BDL counts its gold for first time in at least 30 years
EU chief electoral observer meets Aoun, vows impartial monitoring of elections
Aoun warns of low voter turnout/Najia Housari/Arabic News/April 07/2022
A Gulf return to Lebanon should entail a new policy/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/April 07/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 07-08/2022
Ukraine tells NATO members to send arms before it's 'too late'
War in Ukraine: Latest developments
Russia accuses Ukraine of changing demands since Istanbul talks
Timeline of Yemen’s seven-year conflict
Yemen's president steps aside amid efforts to end war
Iraqi defense shot down drone near base hosting US troops
Turkey suspends trial of Saudi suspects in Khashoggi killing

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 07-08/2022
The Guns Of August' In The Middle East?/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/April 08/2022
The negative consequences of normalizing ties with Iran/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Why implementing Paris Agreement is a case of now or never/ Andrew Hammond/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Failed refugees, musicians left to starve in Afghanistan/Tala Jarjour/Arab News/April 07/ 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 07-08/2022
Saudi Arabia returns its ambassador to Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/April 08/2022
Saudi Arabia announced Thursday it was sending back its ambassador to Lebanon, five months after a row erupted over the Riyadh-led military intervention in Yemen.The foreign ministry "announces the return of the ambassador... to the sisterly Republic of Lebanon," read a statement carried by Saudi state media. The return of the ambassador comes "in response to the calls and appeals of the moderate national political forces in Lebanon," the statement said. It added that Lebanon has agreed to "stop all political, military and security activities affecting" Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab nations.
Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Miqati meanwhile announced that Kuwait will also return its ambassador to Beirut "before the end of the week." A diplomatic crisis broke out last October after then-information minister George Kordahi was quoted criticizing the Saudi role in Yemen, where a grinding war has produced what the U.N. describes as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Kordahi, who has since resigned, said in a television interview recorded prior to his appointment as minister that the Huthi rebels fighting Yemen's internationally-recognized government were "defending themselves... against an external aggression." He said "homes, villages, funerals and weddings were being bombed" by the Saudi-led coalition, and called the war in Yemen "futile." The Huthis are backed by Saudi arch-rival Iran, which has significant influence in Lebanon, where it backs the powerful Hizbullah.
In response to the remarks Riyadh recalled its ambassador and ordered the Lebanese envoy to leave the kingdom within 48 hours. Three other Gulf states -- the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait -- sided with Saudi Arabia and expelled Lebanese envoys. The row, which has also seen Saudi Arabia ban the imports of Lebanese goods, was a blow to a country already in the grip of crippling political and economic crises. Lebanon had been counting on financial assistance from the Gulf to rescue its economy. Lebanon welcomed the Saudi announcement. "We highly value the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's decision to return its ambassador to Lebanon and we stress the fact that Lebanon is proud of its Arab allegiance and is adamant on maintaining the best ties with Gulf nations," Prime Minister Najib Miqati tweeted. Lebanon's Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi also praised the move. "Once again the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has proven, by the return of its ambassador... that Lebanon is in its heart and conscience and that it will never abandon it," Mawlawi said. "We will continue to work on strengthening ties and we will not allow any harm or offense to come its way from now on," he added. Saudi Arabia, which wields strong influence over many of the smaller Gulf states, had stepped back from its former ally Lebanon in recent years, angered by the influence of Hizbullah.Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan had blamed the row on Hizbullah and Iran's dominance over Lebanese politics."There is no crisis with Lebanon but a crisis in Lebanon because of Iranian dominance," he told Al-Arabiya television in October. "Hizbullah's dominance of the political system in Lebanon worries us," he had said.

IMF, Lebanon reach staff-level agreement on $3 billion financing program
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/April 08/2022
The IMF announced Thursday that after months of negotiations it reached a staff-level agreement to provide Lebanon with $3 billion in aid to help it emerge from a severe economic crisis. The country has been battered by triple digit inflation, soaring poverty rates, and the collapse of its currency since a 2020 debt default, and officials in Beirut applauded the announcement as it will open the door to additional financial support. The deal is "a visa stamp for donor countries to begin co-operating with Lebanon and to put Lebanon back on the global finance map," Prime Minister Najib Miqati told reporters after the IMF announcement. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, who led the IMF mission to Lebanon, said that once approved by the global crisis lender's board, the 46-month financing program will "support the authorities' reform strategy to restore growth and financial sustainability." However, approval is contingent on "timely implementation of all prior actions and confirmation of international partners' financial support," he said in a statement. Rigo blamed "many years of unsustainable macroeconomic policies" for the crisis that came to a head in 2020 when Lebanon defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time in its history. The Lebanese pound has lost about 90 percent of its value on the black market and four out of five Lebanese now live below the poverty line, according to the United Nations. The situation has been exacerbated by soaring inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as the August 2020 port of Beirut explosion. "Lebanon is facing an unprecedented crisis, which has led to a dramatic economic contraction and a large increase in poverty, unemployment, and emigration," Rigo said, stressing that the program will support increased social spending.
- 'In Lebanon's best interest' -
The aid would be released under the global lender's Extended Fund Facility but only after the parliament in Beirut approves a 2022 budget and a new bank secrecy law to fight corruption. It also will require cabinet approval of a debt restructuring plan, with "sufficient creditor participation to restore debt sustainability and close financing gaps," Rigo said. Officials "expressed their strong commitment to carry out this reform program and sustain decisive implementation during the upcoming parliamentary and Presidential elections," Rigo said. The IMF statement also said that Lebanese authorities, with IMF staff support, have formulated a comprehensive economic reform program aiming to rebuild the economy, restore financial sustainability, strengthen governance and transparency, remove impediments to job creating growth, and increase social and reconstruction spending. Miqati agreed that "these reforms are in Lebanon's best interest," and said they will be fully implemented. In a joint statement with President Michel Aoun, he said the IMF deal will help "to revive Lebanon and put it on the path of recovery and solutions."The IMF also called for establishing a credible and transparent monetary and exchange rate system as there are several exchange rates for the Lebanese pound. The IMF added that there would be an "externally assisted bank-by-bank evaluation for the 14 largest banks" in Lebanon. Since the meltdown began, local banks have imposed informal capital controls and there have been concerns that depositors will lose part of their savings. Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Shami, who is leading the talks with the IMF, said Lebanon's economy contracted 60% since the meltdown began more than two years ago. He told LBCI TV that he hopes all the IMF "preconditions will be implemented quickly" and that the deal has the backing of Aoun, Miqati and also Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who welcomed the agreement. Talks between Lebanon and the IMF began in May 2020, then stopped for months amid a political deadlock in the country. They resumed after Miqati took office last September but no breakthrough had been made until Thursday's agreement was reached.

Aoun signs electoral funds law, says all measures taken to hold timely vote
Naharnet/April 08/2022
President Michel Aoun on Thursday signed a law adopted by parliament for including the expenses of the May 15 parliamentary polls in the 2022 state budget, the Presidency said. Separately, Aoun met in Baabda with the head of the European Union Election Observation Mission Lebanon 2022, Gyorgy Holvenyi, and reassured him that “all measures have been taken in order to hold the elections on time, in an atmosphere of freedom, democracy and transparency.” “Efforts are ongoing to resolve the obstacles facing this important constitutional juncture, despite the difficult economic and financial circumstances that Lebanon is going through,” Aoun added. He also noted that the failure to approve electoral megacenters for the May elections might lead to a lower voter turnout in light of the transportation difficulties stemming from the country’s severe economic and financial crisis.Moreover, Aoun asked the EU observation mission to monitor expat voting, noting that it will be only the second time that emigrants take part in the their country’s elections after “the 2018 achievement.”

Miqati criticizes 'approach of ultimate negativity'
Naharnet/April 08/2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati stressed Thursday that “major hopes” are pinned on the upcoming parliamentary elections, adding that “it will be the first practical translation of the orientations of the people who rebelled in squares” in 2019, “especially the young generation.”
“Ever since the government was formed, there are parties in the country who have been deliberately questioning everything and adopting the approach of ultimate negativity in dealing with any matter,” Miqati decried. “As if it is required to prevent the country from rising again and to keep it in the attrition phase instead of allowing it to enter the phase of financial, economic and social recovery,” the premier added. He accordingly reiterated his call for everyone to “come together and shun tense rhetoric, especially in these circumstances that we are going through, in order to give our country a chance to recover.”

Mawlawi says no security incidents can affect elections
Naharnet/April 08/2022
Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi on Thursday reassured that “no security incidents” can affect the upcoming parliamentary elections, days after two people were killed and three others were wounded in an armed clash between two families in Tripoli. “The motives behind the Tripoli incidents were familial and no security incidents can affect the elections,” Mawlawi announced after an emergency meeting for the Central Security Council. “The Internal Security Forces and the army will organize joint patrols to control security in Tripoli and reassure residents,” the Minister added. According to an army statement, two people were killed and three others injured in a clash between the Issa and al-Ali families in Tripoli’s Bab al-Tabbaneh neighborhood.

Report: BDL counts its gold for first time in at least 30 years
Naharnet/April 08/2022
Lebanon’s central bank, also known as Banque du Liban (BDL), is “counting its gold reserves for the first time in at least three decades,” as the international community “pressures the cash-strapped country to evaluate its assets to qualify for a bail-out,” English-language Emirati newspaper The National reported on Thursday. “About 20 per cent of the time-consuming exercise has been completed in the past two years,” two senior civil servants told The National. BDL’s employees had to pause their work for months owing to the Covid-19 pandemic, the daily said. “They have descended into the bank’s vaults several times a week to weigh 12-kilogram gold ingots that are believed to number 13,000 in total. One by one, the metal bars are placed on a scale,” The National added. “It’s a very physical job,” said one of the sources. The bank also holds around 700,000 coins. “The inventory is limited to checking that the expected amount of gold is present. Audit company KPMG will then step in to evaluate the metal’s worth,” the source said. The government requested an inventory in March 2020 after it was made aware that another auditor, Deloitte, had been unable to conduct one, said the sources. Analysts say the inventory plays a crucial role in better understanding the state’s losses. “If the gold’s value is lower than estimated, then BDL’s losses would be higher than reported by this government,” said Mike Azar, a financial analyst. Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Shami has estimated the banking sector’s losses at more than $70 billion. A leaked report by Deloitte shows that four years ago, it evaluated Banque du Liban’s gold reserves at close to $18 billion, of which 60 percent is held in Beirut, and the rest at the U.S. Federal Reserve. The sources said they had no doubt that vast amounts of gold were inside BDL’s vaults. “It’s not a trust issue. But inventories need to be done, just like any company should know what they have in stock,” said one. Economist Kamal Hamdan said he does not believe that the central bank has counted its gold since the civil war. It remains unclear whether the gold ingots meet today’s standards of purity. A source with knowledge of the subject said the central bank's gold might not meet the London Bullion Market Association’s benchmark because it was bought over 50 years ago. “Gold bought before the 1970s is not of London Good Delivery standard and therefore cannot be easily sold,” they said.

EU chief electoral observer meets Aoun, vows impartial monitoring of elections
Naharnet/April 08/2022
The head of the European Union Election Observation Mission Lebanon 2022, Gyorgy Holvenyi, met Thursday in Baabda with President Michel Aoun and announced that around 200 observers will monitor Lebanon’s May 15 parliamentary elections in a professional, transparent and impartial manner, the Lebanese Presidency said. In a tweet, Holvenyi said he met with Aoun to “explain about the Mission and its work in fostering confidence and reinforcing the democratic process in the country.” Speaking after the meeting, the EU official said the observation mission comes in response to an invitation from the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities. “Reflecting its continued commitment to support credible, transparent and inclusive elections in Lebanon, the European Union also observed the 2005, 2009 and 2018 elections. EU EOMs aim to promote democracy and human rights in a framework of cooperation with third countries. The EU EOM is a demonstration of the EU's commitment to democracy and peace in Lebanon,” Holvenyi added. “Our observation will cover all the regions of Lebanon. The mission arrived on 27 March and will stay until 6 June. On election day, the mission will comprise some 200 observers from all 27 EU member states, Norway and Switzerland,” he said. The core team had arrived in Beirut on March 27 and is composed of 10 election experts covering the different aspects of the electoral process. In mid-April, 30 long-term observers will be deployed in teams of two to cover all the regions of the country, Holvenyi added. “I will be back to Lebanon before elections for my second visit, but our team composed by our analysts and our observers will be here all the time. The EU Election Observation Mission will remain in the country until the conclusion of the electoral process,” the EU official noted. He concluded by saying that the EU EOM will conduct a comprehensive analysis of the electoral process, based on long-term observation, and that its final report will include a final assessment of the electoral process and “a set of recommendations for possible reforms to improve future electoral processes.”

Aoun warns of low voter turnout
Najia Housari/Arabic News/April 07/2022
As a result of the financial crisis in the country, increasingly impoverished citizens are prioritizing food over healthcare, Doctors Without Borders warns
‘Opposition forces that claim to confront the ruling authority and corruption are no longer concerned with people’s suffering but are focusing on their own ambitions,’ said workers union chief
BEIRUT: Gyorgy Holvenyi, the head of the EU’s Electoral Observation Mission, said on Thursday that about 200 observers will monitor the Lebanese parliamentary elections on May 15 and will do so with “all transparency and impartiality.”
Part of the team arrived in Lebanon on March 27 and will remain there until June 6, he told Lebanese President Michel Aoun.
Holvenyi said the observers will produce a detailed assessment of the election process, as was done during the previous electoral cycle. They will also monitor the voting process for expatriates in several European countries in accordance with the same standards and rules applied in Lebanon, he added.
Aoun said that “work is underway to overcome obstacles to holding the elections despite the difficult economic and financial conditions that Lebanon is going through, which could have been mitigated for voters if mega centers had been adopted.”
He blamed the legislative authority for this. The aim of the mega centers Aoun favors is to allow voters to cast their ballots outside the areas in which they are registered, meaning they would not have to return to their hometowns to vote. There were concerns among some, however, that if the creation of such centers was approved for the current election cycle it could lead to delays or postponement.
Aoun expressed concern that the rejection of the mega centers will result in low voter turnout because rising fuel prices as a result of the financial crisis in the country will mean additional expense for voters who have to travel further to vote.
A judicial source told Arab News that 45 judges in Lebanon have so far rejected the possibility that they will oversee the vote-counting process. Public Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oweidat previously submitted a letter about this to the Ministry of Justice and urged the appointment of alternatives.
The source said: “The judges will refrain from participating given the economic conditions and the low wages they would receive for more than 24 hours of work.”
The source also expressed concern that “staff in public institutions could refrain from supervising the electoral process amid the low wages and long working hours.”
On Thursday, Aoun signed a law, approved by parliament, authorizing an extraordinary allocation in the 2022 general budget for the General Directorate of Political Affairs of the Ministry of Interior, the General Security and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to cover the costs of the elections at home and abroad.
The total amount is 620 billion Lebanese pounds ($31 million, based on the Central Bank’s Sayrafa exchange rate of 20,000 pounds to the dollar). It will be distributed as follows: 260 billion pounds for the Ministry of Interior, 300 billion pounds to cover the costs of issuing 1 million Lebanese passports, and 60 billion pounds to cover the expense of organizing polling in other countries for expatriates.
Political parties have been organizing special events in an effort to encourage hesitant or reluctant voters since the official electoral lists were announced. Despite this there is still widespread skepticism that the elections will take place next month as scheduled.
However, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Thursday: “Ever since the government was formed, we keep hearing people deliberately doubting everything we do in this country — as if they want to prevent Lebanon from rising once again and achieving financial, economic and social recovery.
“I call on all people to find common ground and steer clear of tensions.”
He added that that there is great hope attached to the elections, especially among the younger generation.
Political analysts believe that many people are questioning the realistic chances of the elections going ahead because of the prevailing poor living conditions in the country as a result of the financial crisis, and public resentment of a political elite that is once again standing for election under unconvincing slogans.
The financial situation has also created power supply problems across the country, which could disrupt the provision of electricity to polling stations and vote counting centers in all regions.
Mikati confirmed during a cabinet session on Wednesday that his government will not surrender “in the face of the difficult social and economic situation.” He stressed the need to invite all sections of society to cooperate to overcome the “difficult situation we are experiencing, and not spread panic and despair among the Lebanese.”
On Thursday, Medecins Sans Frontieres, also known as Doctors Without Borders, warned that financial pressures are forcing people to prioritize the purchase of food over healthcare in a country where privatization of medical services is rampant.
The organization, which has organized health projects in Wadi Khaled in northern Lebanon, one of the poorest parts of the country, said: “To avoid spending money, people delay seeking care until their health condition deteriorates and reaches a critical degree. Sometimes, it will be too late.”
Marcelo Fernandez, the head of the MSF mission in Lebanon, said: “With the increasing poverty rates, communities living on the edge of the poverty line are likely to neglect preventive care or try to treat diseases on their own.
“What we are witnessing in Wadi Khaled is a vivid example of that and people in fragile conditions are the most affected.”
The National Federation of Trade Unions and Employees in Lebanon has announced that it will take to the streets on Labor Day, May 1, in a comprehensive show of civil disobedience to protest against poor working conditions and the greed its says it said is manipulating prices and the black market.
Castro Abdullah, the federation’s president, said food prices have increased by 1,500 percent, while hospitals are failing to meet required moral and humanitarian standards.
He accused candidates standing for election next month of exploiting the prevailing conditions in the most horrific ways.
“The opposition forces that claim to confront the ruling authority and corruption are no longer concerned with the people’s suffering but are rather focusing on their own ambitions, claiming that change can only be achieved through parliament,” said Abdullah.

حنين غدار: عودة الخليج إلى لبنان يجب أن تستلزم سياسة جديدة
A Gulf return to Lebanon should entail a new policy
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/April 07/2022

After months of a diplomatic row between Lebanon and Gulf countries and the withdrawal of four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ambassadors from Beirut, political and media reports revealed that the Saudi ambassador Walid Bukhari could return to Lebanon. There is no confirmed date yet, but the French diplomatic effort, and exchange of friendlier statements between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon’s prime minister Najib Mikati, validate these reports.
Amid the crisis, GCC countries presented to Lebanon – via the Kuwaiti foreign minister Ahmed Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Sabah – a list of conditions to be fulfilled for the ambassadors to return, most of which are complicated, such as the implementation of UNSCR 1559 and disarming Hezbollah. It did not implement the requirements. Hezbollah continues to use Lebanon as a springboard to support the Houthis in Yemen.
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The return of the ambassadors does not mean that relationships are going back to where they were. That will take a long time, and Lebanon still has to show signs of cooperation. However, the return of the ambassadors to Lebanon could be beneficial on two levels – politically support and assure a fragmented Sunni community and some opposition groups ahead of elections, and make sure Iran doesn’t fill all the void left by international actors. Eventually, Lebanon could be part of a new regional approach to confront Iran, and some Gulf presence could come in handy.
A regional effort to confront Iran seems to be in the making, and it could become clear after following the conclusion of the Vienna talks, with a new deal signed. The several meetings in the region, with strong participation of the UAE, Egypt, Israel, and Turkey, reflect a broader strategic shift among regional players from dependency on the US to self-reliance. It could translate this regional shift into a more robust strategy in Iran’s headquarters in Lebanon. Only in this context the return of the ambassadors makes sense.
From Sharm el-Sheik to al-Aqaba, and then the Negev, it has become evident that a regional coalition is taking shape, with two priorities; economic cooperation and confronting Iran’s regional power and operations. It is too early to say if this coalition will be successful or not, and it is not sure if countries involved in this new regional partnership see Iran’s threat the same way or could even agree on ways to deal with Iran and its proxies. Regardless, a shift in the broader perspective has seen each country dealing with threats independently, and a decision to cooperate is confirmed.
Accordingly, the regional policy for Lebanon will also shift from complete abandonment and diplomatic boycott to a new form of confrontation, one that could be military, economic, or political. It is still early to assume what form this confrontation will take, depending on the many scenarios and elections outcomes. Still, one thing needs to be clear for both internal and regional actors: previous strategies failed because they mainly relied on money and political spending. Hezbollah won because they think long-term and understand how to build roots and grow organically. Whatever regional shifts are taking place, considering this is important.
Israel’s strategy in Lebanon focuses on security interests and military confrontations, and the Saudis on political spending.
Previous policies strengthened sectarian divides and indirectly ignored corruption. While many assisted several communities and institutions, this assistance was not sustainable and hinged on the Hariri political dynasty. None has weakened Iran in Lebanon or the region; therefore, any new plan needs to invest in building roots and confronting Hezbollah in spaces where it is vulnerable but also where the Lebanese people could benefit.
If the Gulf ambassadors return to Lebanon, and if this step was indeed part of a new regional policy that requires a diplomatic presence, it is vital to work outside and against the sectarian system which has led Lebanon to the current financial, economic, and political crises. It is also essential to think long-term and build sustainable policies that aim to strengthen institutions, not individuals, and help the people, not the old tired traditional parties that have failed to protect anyone but themselves.
As for the new French Gulf-Lebanon initiative, for it to work this time around, the French diplomatic effort needs to double down on urgent issues in Lebanon, such as corruption, port investigations, and elections transparency. This is in addition to tackling Gulf concerns, such as border control, smuggling, and Lebanon’s neutrality. President Emanuel Macron could look into the new EU framework to impose sanctions on individuals involved in corruption, smuggling, and obstructing justice. The framework is in place, and now is the perfect time to apply it.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 07-08/2022
Ukraine tells NATO members to send arms before it's 'too late'
Agence France Presse/April 08/2022
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Thursday he expected NATO members to send Kyiv the weapons it needs but insisted they had to act quickly before Russia launches another major offensive.  "Either you help us now and I'm speaking about days, not weeks, or your help will come too late. And many people will die, many civilians will lose their homes, many villages will be destroyed. Exactly because this help came too late," Kuleba said after meeting NATO foreign ministers in Brussels.

War in Ukraine: Latest developments
Agence France Presse/April 08/2022
Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine:
'Last chance' to leave East -
A Ukrainian official warns residents in the east that they have a "last chance" to flee before a major Russian offensive expected in the region. "These few days may be the last chance to leave," says Sergiy Gaiday, governor of the Lugansk region, where the city of Severodonetsk is coming under sustained artillery and rocket fire. The head of the neighboring Donetsk region vows to also step up evacuations.
U.N. rights body suspension -
The U.N. General Assembly votes Thursday on suspending Russia from the UN Human Rights Council as punishment for invading Ukraine.Russia has warned that expelling it from multilateral forums will make dialogue even more difficult.
New plea for weapons -
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba calls on NATO members to provide Kyiv with all the weaponry it needs to fight Russia. "My agenda is very simple. It has only three items on it. It's weapons, weapons, and weapons," Kuleba tells journalists at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Hungary 'helping' Putin -
Ukraine accused its neighbor and Kremlin-ally Hungary of appeasing Russian aggression and undermining EU unity on sanctions in the wake of Viktor Orban's reelection as prime minister.Orban says he is prepared to pay for Russian gas in rubles, a demand of Putin's that was rejected by the West. Orban has also offered to host peace talks.
'Major war crimes': Biden -
U.S. President Joe Biden denounces the killing of Ukrainian civilians in the town of Bucha allegedly by Russian troops as "major war crimes."Ukrainian officials warn other areas may have suffered worse, including nearby Borodianka. "Locals talk about how planes came in during the first days of the war and fired rockets at them from low altitudes," Ukraine's Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky tells local media.
French anger over tweet
The French government summons Russia's ambassador to Paris in protest after his embassy posted a photo on Twitter claiming to show a Ukrainian "film set" used to stage civilian killings in Bucha. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian calls the tweet "obscene."
Shell faces $5bn hit
British energy giant Shell says its exit from Russia could cost it up to $5 billion (4.6 billion euros) in the first quarter of the year. Shell announced it was selling its stakes in joint ventures with Russian state energy giant Gazprom shortly after the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine.
Putin daughters sanctioned
The United States announces sanctions on two of Putin's daughters, saying family members are known to hide the Russian president's wealth. It also declared "full blocking" sanctions on Russia's largest public and private financial institutions, Sberbank and Alfa Bank, and says all new U.S. investments in Russia are now prohibited. The EU is also looking to add Putin's daughters to its sanctions blacklist. The UK also adds new energy and banking sanctions and bans new British investments in Russia.
Marathon bars Russians, Belarusians
Organizers of the Boston Marathon say Russian and Belarusian runners will be barred over the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia accuses Ukraine of changing demands since Istanbul talks
Agence France Presse/April 08/2022
Russia on Thursday accused Ukrainian negotiators of changing demands since last month's talks in Istanbul, claiming that Kyiv was not interested in ending fighting. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Istanbul in March but there have been few signs of the conflict abating on the ground. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that on Wednesday the Ukrainian side had presented its draft agreement. "It shows a departure from the most important provisions spelled out at the meeting in Istanbul on March 29," he said. In Turkey, "the Ukrainians clearly stated that future (international) security guarantees for Ukraine do not apply to Crimea and Sevastopol," Lavrov said, referring to territory Moscow annexed in 2014. "In yesterday's draft, this clear statement is missing," he added. He also said that Ukrainians wanted the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to discuss Crimea and separatist-held territory in eastern Ukraine face-to-face. "At the next stage, the Ukrainian side will certainly ask for the withdrawal of troops and will put forward new preconditions," Lavrov predicted. "This is unacceptable."He accused Ukrainian authorities of seeking to scupper talks and not wanting to end more than a month of fighting. "We see this as a manifestation of the fact that the Kyiv regime is controlled by Washington and its allies, who are pushing President Volodymyr Zelensky to continue hostilities," Lavrov said.

Timeline of Yemen’s seven-year conflict
AFP/April 07, 2022
DUBAI: Yemen has for more than seven years been mired in a war pitting Iran-backed rebels against government forces.
The conflict has left about 380,000 people dead, according to the UN, either directly in the fighting or as a result of famine and disease.
The Houthi rebels advance from their stronghold in Yemen’s northern mountains to seize the capital Sanaa in September 2014.
They ally themselves with forces loyal to ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was toppled in a 2011 uprising, before overrunning the lifeline Red Sea port of Hodeidah.
In February 2015, President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi flees to the second city Aden, on Yemen’s south coast. The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen enters the conflict in March 2015 with airstrikes targeting the rebels. Washington says it is contributing logistics and intelligence.
As the rebels advance on Aden, Hadi flees to Saudi Arabia. The coalition’s intervention helps pro-government forces secure Aden.
In October, coalition forces take control of the Bab Al-Mandab strait at the southern gates of the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest and most strategic waterways.
In June 2018, government fighters backed by coalition ground forces launch an offensive to retake Hodeidah, a key entry point for humanitarian aid.
In December, following negotiations in Sweden, the UN announces a ceasefire in Hodeidah. But it is marred by clashes between rebels and pro-government soldiers.
The anti-Houthi camp is divided between southern separatists and northern unionists loyal to Hadi’s government.
The separatists occupy the presidential palace in Aden in January 2018.
In August 2019, separatists again clash with unionist troops.
A power-sharing agreement is negotiated.
The rebels escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia, using drones and missiles.
A major hit on Sept. 14, 2019 on the giant Abqaiq oil processing plant and Khurais oil field affects the oil market.
Riyadh and Washington accuse Iran of being behind the attack, which it denies.
In February 2021, the US ends its support for the coalition’s military operations and removes the Houthis from a “terrorist” blacklist.
Shortly afterward, the rebels resume an offensive to seize Yemen’s oil-rich Marib province, the government’s last northern stronghold.
In January 2022, the rebels take aim at the UAE, first seizing an Emirati-flagged vessel in the Red Sea and then carrying out a drone and missile attack on an oil facility in Abu Dhabi that kills three workers.
In February, Washington announces it is sending the destroyer USS Cole and fighter jets to Abu Dhabi to bolster its defenses.
In March, the rebels carry out a new series of drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities, one of which triggers a huge fire near Jeddah’s Formula One circuit with drivers on the track.
On March 26, the rebels call a unilateral three-day truce.
On March 29, the Saudi-led coalition announce their own ceasefire, which coincides with the opening of talks in the Saudi capital that the Houthis refused to attend.
A UN-brokered ceasefire, the first nationwide truce since 2016, starts on the first day of Ramadan on April 2.
The coalition also agrees to allow fuel shipments into Hodeidah and commercial flights to resume from rebel-held Sanaa, key rebel demands. The two sides trade allegations of violations but the ceasefire largely holds.
On April 5, President Hadi announces from Riyadh that he is handing his powers to a new leadership council.
Saudi Arabia welcomes the announcement and pledges $3 billion in aid and support, some of it to be paid by the UAE.

Yemen's president steps aside amid efforts to end war
Associated Press/April 08/2022
Yemen's exiled president stepped aside and transferred his powers to a presidential council on Thursday, as international and regional efforts to end the country's long-running civil war gained momentum with a two-month truce. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, major players in the conflict appear to have played a role in President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's decision, quickly welcoming it with a pledge of $3 billion in aid. The head of the new council has close ties to Riyadh. Whether the switch will expedite an end to the grinding war remains to be seen, as U.N.-sponsored negotiations have been at an impasse and fighting, airstrikes and missile attacks continued until late last month. The Houthis did not immediately comment on Hadi's announcement. Hadi said the newly established council will run the internationally recognized government and lead negotiations with the Iranian-backed Houthis, according to a statement aired on state-run media. The move is meant to unify the anti-Houthi camp after years of infighting and disputes, and was almost certainly orchestrated in Riyadh, where Yemeni factions were meeting over the past week to discuss efforts to end the war. "With this declaration a Presidential Leadership Council shall be established to complete the implementation of the tasks of the transitional period. I irreversibly delegate to the Presidential Leadership Council my full powers," Hadi declared on Yemen's state-run TV. Hadi also sacked Vice President Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a powerful military figure, and also delegated al-Ahmar's powers to the presidential council. The presidential council is chaired by Rashad al-Alimi, an advisor to Hadi and former interior minister with the government of late strongman President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Al-Alimi enjoys close ties with Saudi Arabia and other political groups inside Yemen, including the powerful Islah party — the transnational Muslim Brotherhood's branch in Yemen. The council has seven members, including Aydarous al-Zubaidi, head of the secessionist Southern Transitional Council — an umbrella group of heavily armed and well-financed militias propped up by the UAE since 2015. Sheikh Sultan al-Aradah, the powerful governor of energy-rich Marib province, was also named a member of the council. So was Tariq Saleh, a militia leader and nephew of the late president who has close ties with the UAE. Hadi was named president of Yemen in 2012 with a mission to oversee a democratic transition following its Arab Spring uprising that ended Saleh's longtime rule. However, the Houthis, a religious movement turned rebel militia, allied with Saleh and seized the capital Sanaa in 2014, forcing Hadi and his government into exile in Saudi Arabia.
Months later, Saudi Arabia formed a military coalition and entered the war to try to restore Hadi's government to power. The conflict has in recent years become a regional proxy war that has killed more than 150,000 people, including over 14.500 civilians. It has also created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Welcoming Hadi's move, Saudi Arabia urged the presidential council to embark on U.N.-led negotiations with the Houthis to find a "political, final and comprehensive" settlement to the conflict, according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency. Powerful Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also met with the council head and its members, according to Saudi state-run TV. The warring sides announced a two-month cease-fire earlier this month, the first nationwide truce in Yemen in six years. Hadi's announcement came as Yemeni talks called by the Saudi-based Gulf Cooperation Council entered their final day on Thursday. The Houthis boycotted the GCC-facilitated efforts because they're taking place in Saudi Arabia, their adversary's territory.

Iraqi defense shot down drone near base hosting US troops
REUTERS/April 08, 2022
RAMADI, Iraq: Defense systems at Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad air base, which hosts US forces, intercepted and shot down a drone while it was hovering near the base, Iraqi security sources said late on Thursday. The sources said it was not clear whether the drone was on a surveillance mission or if it was carrying any explosives. No damages or casualties were reported, the sources added. Iraqi officials were not immediately available for comment.

Turkey suspends trial of Saudi suspects in Khashoggi killing
Associated Press/April 08/2022
A Turkish court ruled Thursday to suspend the trial in absentia of 26 Saudis accused in the gruesome killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and for the case to be transferred to Saudi Arabia.
Kaghoggi, a United States resident who wrote for the Washington Post, was killed on Oct. 2, 2018, at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, where he had gone for an appointment to collect documents required for him to marry his Turkish fiancee, Hatice Cengiz. He never emerged from the building.
The court's decision comes despite warnings from human rights groups that turning the case over to the kingdom would lead to a cover up of the killing which has cast suspicion on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
It also comes as Turkey, which is in the throes of an economic downturn, has been trying to repair its troubled relationship with Saudi Arabia and an array of other countries in its region. Some media reports have claimed that Riyadh has made improved relations conditional on Turkey dropping the case against the Saudis. Turkish officials alleged that Khashoggi, who wrote critically about the crown prince, was killed and then dismembered with a bone saw inside the consulate by a team of Saudi agents sent to Istanbul. The group included a forensic doctor, intelligence and security officers and individuals who worked for the crown prince's office. His remains have not been found. Last week, the prosecutor in the case recommended that the case be transferred to the kingdom, arguing that the trial in Turkey would remain inconclusive. Turkey's justice minister supported the recommendation, adding that the trial in Turkey would resume if the Turkish court is not satisfied with the outcome of proceedings in the kingdom. It was not clear however, if Saudi Arabia, which has already put some of the defendants on trial behind closed door, would open a new trial. The court ruled to halt the trial in line with the Justice Ministry's "positive opinion," the private DHA news agency reported. Human rights advocates had urged Turkey not to transfer the case to Saudi Arabia. "By transferring the case of a murder that was committed on its territory, Turkey will be knowingly and willingly sending the case back into the hands of those who bare its responsibility," said Amnesty International's Secretary General Agnes Callamard. "Indeed, the Saudi system has repeatedly failed to cooperate with the Turkish prosecutor and it is clear that justice cannot be delivered by a Saudi court."
"What has happened to Turkey's declared commitment that justice must prevail for this gruesome murder and that this case would never become a pawn in political calculations and interest?" she asked.
The New York-based Human Rights Watch said: "Given the complete lack of judicial independence in Saudi Arabia, the role of the Saudi government in Khashoggi's killing, its past attempts at obstructing justice, and a criminal justice system that fails to satisfy basic standards of fairness, chances of a fair trial for the Khashoggi case in Saudi Arabia are close to nil." Turkey apparently had the Saudi Consulate bugged and shared audio of the killing with the CIA, among others. The slaying sparked international outrage and condemnation. Western intelligence agencies, as well as the U.S. Congress, have said that an operation of that magnitude could not have happened without knowledge of the prince.Turkey, which vowed to shed light on the brutal killing, began prosecuting the defendants in absentia in 2020 after Saudi Arabia rejected requests for their extradition. The defendants included two former aides of the prince.
Some of the men were put on trial in Riyadh behind closed doors. A Saudi court issued a final verdict in 2020 that sentenced five mid-level officials and operatives to 20-year jail terms. The court had originally ordered the death penalty, but reduced the punishment after Khashoggi's son Salah, who lives in Saudi Arabia, announced that he forgave the defendants. Three others were sentenced to lesser jail terms.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources publishedon April 06-07/2022
The Guns Of August' In The Middle East?

Alberto M. Fernandez/ MEMRI/April 08/2022
There was a time, many decades ago, when ruling elites in the Middle East, I am referring here principally to the Arab world, did not quite understand the United States. Almost 40 years ago, when I first set foot in the region as a young diplomat, you could see the curiosity and the illusions. But that has not been true for a very long time. Now when video appears on Twitter of President Biden seemingly wandering around aimlessly and confused at a White House event, Arabic-speaking elites not only see it but have their own hot takes about it.
This sense of "knowing what America is up to and it is not anything good" deeply informs policy formulation by Arab states and Israel over the past few months. The simplistic hope that the new American Administration "will be like Obama but maybe slightly better" has been replaced by "like Obama but even worse." The mindset that saw America like a distracted but usually benevolent hegemon has been replaced by one angry and dismayed that sees America as actually hostile to many Arab states. This is principally due, of course, to fears of a renewed nuclear deal by the United States with Iran, one that may benefit the United States but will certainly benefit and empower Iran (and by extension, Russia). The "losers" would be the Arab states (particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), Israel, and even Turkey. While Turkey helped Iran evade sanctions and make money, it also competes against Iran in other fields.
Much of the recent diplomatic and political activity in the region can be seen within the context of preparing for a worst-case scenario of a more intense confrontation with Iran escalating into open regional warfare in the near future:
One part of the motivation for the Abraham Accords is due to concerns about Iranian aggression, certainly on the part of Gulf states involved in these agreements.
The attempt to rehabilitate brutal Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad and his regime is about trying to pry him, as much as possible, from the Iranian grip. Probably a lost cause, but an effort seen by Arab states as worthwhile.
The (relative) openness by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel to mend fences with the only recently adversarial Turkish President Erdoğan, now that he has major economic challenges, can also be seen as part of an effort to lineup potential allies or to at least close ranks among regional Sunni Muslims facing the Iranian threat.
Efforts to reach out to the Iraqi leadership, particularly Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, also make sense as part of a larger effort to firm up Arab ranks as much as possible ahead of a confrontation with Iran. Unfortunately, Al-Kadhimi has limited sway over Iran's own militias and numerous agents embedded inside the Iraqi bureaucracy.
Outreach to Russia and China, both partners of Iran and also partial substitutes for an America that cannot fully be trusted, can be seen as part of the same preparation. An Iran with ballistic missiles and drones and possibly even a nuclear bomb will have to be confronted in a like manner and both Moscow and Beijing could be helpful to Arab states in this regard.
Even the support of certain Arab states for the odious military dictatorship in distant Sudan has a potential Iran dimension. Sudanese troops have fought in wars in both Yemen and Libya and could be used elsewhere if Sudan's generals are paid. Arab states may also remember when a bankrupt, desperate Sudanese regime under Omar Al-Bashir actually had security ties with Iran, at the expense of the Arabs, not so long ago.
There is, over the region as a whole, more than a whiff of August 1914 when much of Europe was tied up into interlocking alliances causing a confrontation in the Balkans to become a full-fledged continental war. As Arab states and Israel seek to lock in alliances and smooth over past tensions, so has Iran sought to strengthen the offensive power of its allies on the frontlines in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. The hope now is that, perhaps because of the Ukraine War and Iranian greediness, a new version of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will not actually happen. For an American Administration now obsessed with bringing down Russia, the fact that a new Iranian agreement will reward the Putin regime is, at least publicly, deeply embarrassing given the war hysteria sweeping American elites. Putin's aggression in Ukraine may have inadvertently prevented Iran from gaining an economic windfall. It has certainly delayed an agreement.
But the sense in the region is that, JCPOA-2 or not, the confrontation with an already emboldened Iran is almost inevitable – a more direct confrontation than previously seen in past proxy wars – and America is not to be fully counted as being on the Israeli/Arab side. The result could be something we have not seen in the region before, a sort of "regional world war" involving not just attacks on or by proxies but between various states and players at the same time.
Everyone is hedging their bets, positioning themselves for a conflict whose full parameters they cannot yet fully comprehend. Turkey moves closer to the Sunni Arab states, even burying the Khashoggi case in hopes of a better relationship with Riyadh. Meanwhile, newly minted American "major non-NATO ally" Qatar, ever the contrarian, moves closer to Iran, hosting the head of the IRGC Navy in a move that the Biden State Department called "deeply disappointing." Other Arab states have had their own disappointments after the United States refused to reconsider returning the Yemeni Houthis to an American terrorism list in the wake of Houthi attacks on civilian targets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. By these actions, Iran showed its ability to wage destabilizing economic warfare on both those states – both of whom are seeking to remake and expand their economies – through the attacks of its proxies. Both Arab states and Israel have expressed concerns about the U.S. lifting sanctions on the IRGC, but this is only one small part of the many possible concessions to Iran envisioned in the nuclear talks in Vienna.
The contending blocs are relatively set. On one side Iran, Hezbollah-ruled Lebanon, Gaza, and Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. The Assad regime is also in this camp but may be too weak to be more than a safe haven for Iranian-led forces. Qatar clearly leans toward this camp but will likely baulk at any actual fighting should the confrontation reach that stage.
Against them are a bloc including Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis. Possibly Sudan. Turkey is also a possibility but may wait it out to maximize its position (unless its ally Azerbaijan is dragged into a war with Iran). The American role is ambiguous, unlikely to get involved unless directly attacked, with Iran possibly playing the role of forcing the Americans into a war they want to avoid as happened with Japan and Germany in 1941. That would be the supreme irony given that it is in Iran's interest for the Americans to be bystanders.
The plans are laid by both sides. Still an eerie calm reigns so far over Ramadan, the month of great Islamic battles, with Passover and Easter on the horizon. Will open war come sometime this summer after a Ukrainian ceasefire, after an Iranian nuclear agreement, or in lieu of one? This is uncharted territory.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.

The negative consequences of normalizing ties with Iran
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Any deal between Iran and the P5+1 world powers on the former’s nuclear program should not lead to the belief that normalizing political relations with the Tehran regime is safe and secure. This is due to the fact that the Iranian government views international agreements as transitory and a means to an end, with the ultimate goal of the theocratic establishment being the fulfillment of its ideological and revolutionary principles and ideals. In other words, it is extremely unlikely that any deal between the world powers and the Iranian regime would change the core, underlying policies of the Islamic Republic. A clear example is the previous nuclear deal. Some politicians, scholars and policy analysts hoped that Iran would change its behavior after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was struck in 2015 and act as a constructive and modern nation state. However, we ought to be cautious of conflating and intertwining our hopes with the sociopolitical reality and underlying character of the Iranian regime. The Tehran government’s fortunes shifted in 2015 after the signing of the nuclear agreement, which led to the lifting of global sanctions. As a result, the Islamic Republic became the recipient of significant geopolitical, strategic and economic opportunities and rewards from the global powers. Iran’s leaders could have capitalized on these opportunities in two different ways. The first and most rational path would have been to focus their new status on the global stage — their enhanced legitimacy and the additional revenues they received — toward investing in improving the living standards of its citizens, advancing the nation’s technological landscapes, avoiding interference in other countries’ affairs, refraining from the use of provocative and incendiary speeches against other nations, refraining from intimidating other countries by their military power, and instead trying to be a respected nation state in the region and on the global arena.
Building ties with the Iranian regime will not necessarily make a foreign state immune from its malign and destructive policies
But the Iranian leaders took a different path. Their modus operandi, which was using their elevated status — as well as the economic opportunities offered by the nuclear agreement and sanctions relief — to project their military power and fund more proxies in the region. The Iranian regime chose to provoke other nations with its ballistic missile capabilities, issue confrontational, incendiary and irrational statements to antagonize other countries, to be an ideological and revolutionary state with the goal of being treated as the regional superpower at any cost, to impose its Shiite doctrine on other nations, and act as an ideological cause. And the Islamic Republic decided to more forcefully interfere in the domestic affairs of other nations, including Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
In addition, the Iranian regime’s military adventurism escalated, with the region witnessing more Houthi rocket attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria.
The EU, which also normalized relations with the Iranian regime, faced similar negative consequences. The bloc’s member states were among the main targets of Iran’s terrorist plots. The Iranian regime was implicated in a series of assassinations, the seizure of European hostages and other hostile acts across the continent, some successful, others not. European officials were able to foil a terrorist attack targeting a large “Free Iran” convention in Paris in 2018, which was attended by many high-level speakers. Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi was last year sentenced to 20 years in prison in Belgium for his role in the bomb plot. This shows that building ties with the Iranian regime will not necessarily make a foreign state immune from its malign and destructive policies. The EU would do well to recall what Winston Churchill famously said about those that appease a rogue state: “Each one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last. All of them hope that the storm will pass before their turn comes to be devoured. But I fear — I fear greatly — the storm will not pass.”
In a nutshell, governments ought to be cautious of swiftly normalizing political ties with the Iranian regime. International agreements with the Islamic Republic do not change its destructive behavior or revolutionary principles. Instead, deals with Tehran seem to only encourage the regime to more forcefully interfere in the domestic affairs of other nations and to reassert its regional preeminence and hegemonic ambitions.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Why implementing Paris Agreement is a case of now or never
 Andrew Hammond/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Climate change has long been seen as a challenge we have decades left to combat, yet a hard-hitting report released on Monday has the stark message that it is a case of “now or never.”
The study from the UN-convened Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that global emissions must start declining in under three years, with “immediate and deep cuts,” and be slashed by 43 percent by 2030 if we are to limit the average temperature rise to the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement. In short, we are at a crossroads as to whether we will seize the opportunity to avoid climate catastrophe and have a “livable future.”
One of the most alarming findings is that, even if all the policies to cut carbon dioxide emissions that governments put in place by the end of 2020 are fully implemented, the IPCC says the world will still warm by 3.2 C this century. So it is almost inevitable the 1.5 C threshold will be temporarily exceeded, but we could return to below it by the end of the century.
This will, therefore, require big negative emissions in the second half of the century, shortly after 2050, in order to limit warming to 1.5 C. This might include technology to suck carbon dioxide from the skies, which some IPCC participants are highly skeptical of.
These are big asks and it is, therefore, no coincidence that multiple deadlines were missed last week in what was the longest report approval process in the IPCC’s 34-year history. Whatever the future might hold technology-wise by mid-century, there is little doubt that immediate measures are needed.
This includes the rapid expansion of the use of solar panels and wind turbines, which have never been cheaper than they are now, having fallen in cost by about 85 percent over the past decade. We also need to make big changes in terms of diet and lifestyle, such as walking more and eating more healthily, including plant-based foods that have a low environmental impact.
The hard-hitting report may mean pessimism will grow in the coming months about the future of global efforts to combat climate change. However, while the scale of the challenge remains huge, there remains a pathway for a critical mass of countries to ratchet up their emissions cuts to try to meet the targets agreed in Paris.
We are at a crossroads as to whether we will seize the opportunity to avoid climate catastrophe and have a ‘livable future’
To deliver on this agenda, the IPCC makes clear that more money is needed. Finance levels are currently three to six times lower than the levels required to limit warming to below even 2 C by 2030. Indeed, McKinsey estimates that the world needs to invest some $9.2 trillion a year in the infrastructure of the sectors most prone to carbon dioxide emissions in the coming three decades. As a proportion of global gross domestic product, the total investment required would be 6.8 percent, rising to as much as 8.8 percent between 2026 and 2030 before falling — and the transformation becomes more expensive the longer that action is delayed.
While this scale of investment is huge, it is not impossible to deliver and a key question is what is now needed from governments to stimulate this agenda. The roadmap for moving forward is already clear.
Firstly, implementation of the Paris deal will be most effective through national laws, where politically feasible, which will send clear signals to the private sector. The country “commitments” put forward so far will be most credible — and durable beyond the next set of national elections — if they are backed up by legislation, as this is more difficult to roll back than regulation.
While the moves made by governments since Paris are not yet enough, that treaty has crucially put in place the domestic legal frameworks that are the crucial building blocks to measure, report, verify and manage greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, countries are required under the agreement to openly report on emissions and their progress in reaching the goals in their national climate plans submitted to the UN. Under last year’s Glasgow pact, states must also update these yearly, rather than previously every half-decade, to highlight the measures being pursued to implement the goals.
What this movement toward a more robust stance on climate change shows is the scale of the transformation in attitudes already taking place among many governments and wider societies across the globe. Many countries now view tackling global warming as in the national self-interest and see, for instance, that expanding domestic sources of renewable energy not only reduces emissions but also increases energy security by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels.
Reducing energy demand through greater efficiency reduces costs and increases competitiveness. Improving resilience to the impacts of global warming also makes economic sense. And domestic laws also give clear signals about the direction of policy, reducing uncertainty, particularly for the private sector.
The ambition must be that these frameworks are replicated in even more countries and progressively ratcheted up. Now is the time for more states to build what could be a foundation of global sustainable development for billions of people across the world, starting with implementation of the Paris Agreement.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Failed refugees, musicians left to starve in Afghanistan
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/April 07/ 2022
Now living in London, an Afghan musician expresses his relief as he observes the ongoing welcome and the new processing protocols for Ukrainian refugees in the UK and elsewhere. As in many countries across Europe, refugees from bombarded areas of Ukraine are being offered safe housing, often in ordinary people’s homes, in British towns and cities. But the response, officially on the part of government and unofficially in the wider population, has not been manifested in equal facilitation for refugees from other parts of the world who came knocking on the former empire’s doors.
When the US and the UK announced the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan last summer, the speed of their disentanglement took the world by surprise. In a matter of a few weeks, thousands of Afghans found themselves in the unenviable position of their country reverting to a military type of rule in which they had no guarantees of safety or work, or even life.
We have heard in the news about security personnel, translators and other local contractors who are yet to secure safe passage out of a country whose borders have been all but sealed. We have also heard about the airlifting of thousands of people, and hundreds of dogs. Despite major successes in an evacuation mission that was working against time, criticism was directed to the UK prime minister’s office for allegedly intervening in certain humanitarian rescue efforts.
But what we have not heard about are the many more hundreds of vulnerable people whose exit was not secured despite concerted efforts by some organizations and many individuals in the UK and Europe who were trying to help. One such group that has been largely ignored by the media are Afghan artists, especially musicians. Seemingly peripheral to the general social problems typically given media focus, musicians are not a negligible minority in the population. Afghanistan is home to several ethnic groups whose diverse cultures make for a proliferation of musical styles and repertoires, and a correspondingly large number of people who practice these musical cultures and preserve them.
Intolerance for all instrumental music and melodic song for nonreligious purposes remains the group’s modus operandi
In Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, music is not tolerated in any shape or form that allows it to take on the name “music.” Readers may remember photos from the 1990s of knotted heaps of magnetic tape pulled out of cassettes and hung on rows of trees along Afghan roads. Such displays, which came to symbolize the Taliban’s antagonistic stance toward music, included broken instruments. Intolerance for all instrumental music and melodic song for nonreligious purposes remains the modus operandi in the Taliban’s view of a righteous society. Musicians caught practicing their profession have been reporting intimidation, violence and, in some cases, brutal beatings. But their biggest concern is the loss of their livelihood.
Since the Taliban reassumed power, hundreds, even thousands, of musicians and music teachers are no longer able to work. This is resulting in similarly high numbers of families being left without income or the ability to earn a living. The current Afghan economy is not such that it might allow for the absorption of former musicians into the workforce, especially given their set of skills and the general lack of work opportunities. The reality of the situation is producing states of extreme poverty and suffering for the former musicians and their dependents. Many, especially young children, have been suffering from starvation and the adverse health effects of cold weather.
Two decades of relative cultural freedom in the country revived a generation of tradition-bearers and young professionals who had hopes of a future in all kinds of music in Afghanistan. These included popular music, song and different varieties of instrumental and orchestral ensembles. The early 2000s had brought the opening of new music schools and the reemergence of professional musical training after decades of stagnation.
Being able to practice music publicly opened up possibilities and gave Afghan musicians hope of a future where growth, opportunity and creative productivity seemed conceivable. Suddenly, however, doing their job has become too dangerous in times when the most meager of incomes is necessary to survive. Like many in the vulnerable strata of a beleaguered society, Afghan musicians and their families are, quite literally, left out in the cold.
• Tala Jarjour is author of “Sense and Sadness: Syriac Chant in Aleppo.” She is visiting research fellow at King’s College London and associate fellow at Yale College.