English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 17/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october17.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, “Lord, lord, open to us.” But he replied, “Truly I tell you, I do not know you.”Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 25/01-13: “‘Then the kingdom of heaven will be like this. Ten bridesmaids took their lamps and went to meet the bridegroom. Five of them were foolish, and five were wise. When the foolish took their lamps, they took no oil with them; but the wise took flasks of oil with their lamps. As the bridegroom was delayed, all of them became drowsy and slept. But at midnight there was a shout, “Look! Here is the bridegroom! Come out to meet him.” Then all those bridesmaids got up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish said to the wise, “Give us some of your oil, for our lamps are going out.” But the wise replied, “No! there will not be enough for you and for us; you had better go to the dealers and buy some for yourselves.” And while they went to buy it, the bridegroom came, and those who were ready went with him into the wedding banquet; and the door was shut. Later the other bridesmaids came also, saying, “Lord, lord, open to us.” But he replied, “Truly I tell you, I do not know you.”Keep awake therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 16-17.2022
Report: Lebanese parties to hold dialogue conference in Geneva, But was almosed cancelled after Boukari's Tweet
Date set for signing Lebanon-Israel maritime deal
Macron hails 'historic' Israel-Lebanon sea border deal
Bou Saab: Initial indications imply that Qana field is approximately equal to Karish field in gas quantities, international community will not accept...
Geagea says he will not accept a president without standards
Qassem: Hezbollah refuses any rise in electricity cost before increasing power supply
Hezbollah demands president to recognize role of ‘resistance’ after two failed ballots
Macron hails 'historic' Israel-Lebanon sea border deal
Bassil threatens to change his mind on running for president
Lebanon’s Pound Sinks to Historic Low at 40,000 against US Dollar
No to the Resistance, Yes to its Weapons/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 16-17.2022
Harris, Blinken, Sullivan Hail Iran Protests
Iran Rejects Biden’s Support of Protests as Interference in State Matters
Iran's celebrities face reprisals for supporting protests
Iran officials say Tehran prison blaze has been extinguished
Russia military range shooting leaves 11 dead, 15 wounded
Palestinian Killed by Israeli Soldiers During West Bank Clash

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 16-17.2022
The United States and OPEC Plus: The Case for Prudence/Raghida Dergham/October 16/2022
Will the Europeans Do It?/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2022
The Need for Real Leadership: The Cost of Not Supporting Ukraine/Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/October 16/2022
Iran: Freedom-Lovers Win a Round/Amir Taheri/Asharq al-Awsat/October 16/2022
Now is the time for the West to support the Iranian people/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 17/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 16-17.2022
Report: Lebanese parties to hold dialogue conference in Geneva, But was almosed cancelled after Boukari's Tweet
LCCC/October 16/2022
A meeting was scheduled to be held Tuesday between Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon Marion Weichelt Krupski and representatives of the Lebanese political parties, al-Jadeed TV reported on Sunday. A dinner banquet will bring the ambassador together with representatives of Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and MPs from the Change forces, al-Jadeed said. The meeting is aimed at preparing for a dialogue conference that will be held in Geneva, the TV network added, noting that the conference will involve several “official sessions.” Apparently this fishy and pro Hezbollah gathering is stumbling after a tweet posted by the Saudi ambassador, Al Boukari in which he stressed the crucial and existential importance. After his tweet the Geagea Lebanese Forces sated that it will not partake in the event, as well as most of the change MP's.

Date set for signing Lebanon-Israel maritime deal
Arab News/16 October 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon and Israel will sign an agreement on demarcating their maritime border on Oct. 27, a source in the Lebanese presidency told Arab News on Sunday.
“Arrangements have begun to be made in (the city of) Naqoura, where the UNIFIL (UN Interim Force in Lebanon) headquarters are, to receive the delegations of the two countries to sign separately the agreement document and hand over a copy of it to the American side and a copy to the UN,” the source said. “American mediator Amos Hochstein will come to Naqoura to attend the signing process.”On Oct. 11, President Michel Aoun announced Beirut’s approval of the US demarcation proposal, saying the agreement would “lift Lebanon from the abyss in which it was plunged.” Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid described the agreement as “historic.”The Lebanese and Israeli sides, through American mediation, engaged in indirect negotiations that lasted two years.

Macron hails 'historic' Israel-Lebanon sea border deal
AFP/October 16/2022
French President Emmanuel Macron has said the "historic agreement" between Lebanon and Israel that unlocks offshore gas production was an "important step towards more peace" between the two sides. President Michel Aoun approved the U.S.-brokered maritime border deal on Thursday, a day after Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said it would make conflict with Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah less likely. Macron congratulated Lebanese and Israeli leaders for their "efforts and their determination," the Elysee Palace presidency said. "This is undeniably an important step towards more peace for Israel, for Lebanon and all the countries and peoples of the region. "It will also contribute to the prosperity of both countries." The agreement between the two sides that have remained technically at war since Israel's creation in 1948 has been applauded by world leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden. The written agreement "establishes a permanent and equitable resolution of their maritime dispute," according to a copy seen by AFP. It will go into force as soon as the U.S. sends notice confirming it has received from Lebanon and Israel their separate approvals. The two sides will then deposit maritime border coordinates with the United Nations. Under the deal, Israel has full rights over the Karish gas field which is expected to start gas production within weeks. Lebanon will have full rights to operate and explore the so-called Qana or Sidon reservoir, parts of which allegedly fall in Israel's territorial waters. ---

Bou Saab: Initial indications imply that Qana field is approximately equal to Karish field in gas quantities, international community will not accept...
NNA/October 16/2022
Deputy Speaker of the House Elias Bou Saab, commissioned by the President of the Republic to administer the dossier of southern maritime border demarcation negotiations with Israel, revealed to “Al-Hurra” TV channel the expected date for the completion of the demarcation agreement and the mechanism by which the agreement will be signed. He said: "The intelligence in this agreement stems from the understanding of the American mediator, Amos Hochstein, of the Lebanese situation and the inability to conclude an international treaty with Israel because it is an enemy state for Lebanon. Hochstein took this matter into consideration and found a creative way by concluding an agreement between America and both Israel and Lebanon that defines the points on which the consensus was reached. These are the points that the United States has included in a letter it will send to both Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon will respond by agreeing in writing to the content of the letter, and Israel will respond in the same way.”
Bou Saab continued to indicate that the letters may be delivered on the 26th or 27th of this month under the flag of the United Nations in Al-Naqoura.
Asked about who will be signing on Lebanon’s behalf, Bou Saab replied, “This decision is taken by the President of the Republic and he will choose the team that will head to Naqoura to present the letter.” On the content of the call that US President Joe Biden held with President Michel Aoun, Bou Saab said, "It was an important and lengthy call in which the American president touched on the next stage and promised that the American side would be keen to ensure that the Israeli side respects the signed agreement.”
Bou Saab emphasized that “this agreement will open up for Lebanon a new horizon of foreign investments that create job opportunities for the Lebanese.”
"President Biden thanked President Aoun for his efforts, assuring him of his country's support for Lebanon to ensure its transition to a new stage," Bou Saab added, considering that "Biden's words constitute a new openness to Lebanon."
He continued, “It is true that the agreement is the basis, but there is something behind the agreement in terms of gas extraction and openness. We will see on Monday or Tuesday a statement from the Security Council welcoming what has been accomplished and stressing that it is an opportunity of hope for the Lebanese, their economy and their prosperity."
Bou Saab commended "the priority that President Biden gave to this agreement and the great effort he made in this context," adding that "history will record this achievement for him," praising the negotiating method adopted by Amos Hochstein based on a ‘no winner-no loser’ principle, with focus on what each side can gain for the benefit of its country.
He considered that “the alternative to this agreement could have been war or escalation,” noting that “Netanyahu’s threat to cancel the agreement if he wins the elections is mere electoral talk, and that any breach of the agreement will be directed against the United States and its credibility before the world.
“The agreement also guarantees that there will be no provocation on the border, neither by Hezbollah or anyone else," he maintained.
The Deputy House Speaker continued to disclose that following the President of the Republic’s announcement that Lebanon wishes to reconsider demarcation with Cyprus, a letter arrived to the Lebanese Foreign Minister from his Cypriot counterpart calling for the start of negotiations to amend the border with Cyprus. "The decision today rests with the President of the Republic, who decides how we can continue with Cyprus," he said.
Bou Saab also called for "moving north as well to demarcate the border with Syria," saying that "demarcation with Syria is less difficult, and we should start talking about this issue,” while urging some politicians in Lebanon to “put aside their differences with Syria and communicate with the Syrian leadership on the issues of the displaced and demarcation at sea, taking into account the economic interests of both countries.”
He added, “The demarcation agreement will facilitate the import of Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity, and we are working on this issue with the same team in the US administration.”
Bou Saab went on to underline that the agreement is an achievement for Lebanon. “For years, we have been dreaming of Lebanon becoming an oil and gas-producing country. We must exploit this energy today. There is an international opportunity, especially in light of the crisis in Europe," he emphasized, noting that "what has been achieved is an accomplishment for all the Lebanese, but we must not deny President Aoun's insistence on bringing this file to its conclusions."
Regarding the French role, Bou Saab said: "What concerns us today is to ensure that France stands by Lebanon to facilitate the work of ‘Total’ company and to speed up the start of operations and the extraction of gas," stressing that Lebanon will not pay anything from its share in the Qana field to Israel, since what will be paid will be from Total's share. "Initial indications show that the Qana field is approximately equivalent to the Karish field in gas quantities, according to the preliminary studies of Total," Bou Saab revealed, expecting that "the company will start exploration within months, and extraction may begin after four years.”“However, before that, we can witness the return of investments and foreign companies, and this will facilitate Lebanon's mission with the International Monetary Fund," he explained. Finally, Bou Saab reassured the Lebanese that "the international community will not accept tampering with the money that will later come to the sovereign fund,” asserting that “the eye of France, Europe, America and the whole world is on Lebanon in this regard."

Geagea says he will not accept a president without standards
NNA/October 16/2022
Head of the "Lebanese Forces" Party, Samir Geagea, confirmed that LF will not accept a new president of the republic without standards. "The Lebanese Forces Party wants a president who can start the required rescue operation after Lebanon has reached this bad state," he added. Geagea's speech came during the launch of the "Northern Bekaa Circle" for "LF" students. In response to a question about the necessity of developing a security plan to limit the unrest in the region and the presence of illegal weapons, he explained that "it is a problem at the political level, and efforts are focused on that."

Qassem: Hezbollah refuses any rise in electricity cost before increasing power supply
NNA/October 16/2022
Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, announced that the party refuses to increase the electricity tariff before increasing the supply of energy. Sheikh Qassem added that Hezbollah wants to ensure that the results of oil and gas extraction will be far from looting.

Hezbollah demands president to recognize role of ‘resistance’ after two failed ballots
Daniel Stewart/MSN/October 16/2022
The Lebanese militia-party Hezbollah has demanded Sunday that Lebanese political forces nominate a president who recognizes the role of the "resistance" against Israel in the new voting session that the Parliament will hold next Thursday to try to elect a new head of state, after two failed attempts and two weeks before the term of office of the current president, Michel Aoun, expires. "It takes a president who will work in the interest of the country and who has courage. Not someone who will obey the orders of the Americans, but the interests of the nation," the leader of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, Mohamed Raad, has made known in a speech reported by 'L'Orient le Jour'. While Hezbollah and its allies are betting on a consensus president, other formations such as the Lebanese Forces (LF) led by the Christian Samir Geagea are calling on the contrary for a president who will confront the Shiite militia-party.
"Nobody wants a defiant president, what we want is a president who can launch the necessary rescue operation, given the state Lebanon has fallen into", he assured in declarations to the official Lebanese news agency ANI. The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, this week postponed the second session on the election of the country's new president and summoned the political forces to a new round on October 20 after only 71 of the 128 parliamentarians attended the session, far short of the 86 needed to proceed to the vote. The Lebanese constitution makes no mention of the post being reserved for a particular confessional group, although a consensus established in 1943 set the president to be Christian, the prime minister to be Sunni and the speaker of parliament to be Shiite, a division that has been respected ever since. The country is in the midst of a serious political, economic and social crisis aggravated by the war in Syria, the coronavirus pandemic and the explosions of August 4, 2020 in the port of the capital, Beirut, which left more than 220 dead and caused enormous material damage.

Macron hails 'historic' Israel-Lebanon sea border deal
Naharnet/October 16/2022
French President Emmanuel Macron has said the "historic agreement" between Lebanon and Israel that unlocks offshore gas production was an "important step towards more peace" between the two sides. President Michel Aoun approved the U.S.-brokered maritime border deal on Thursday, a day after Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said it would make conflict with Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah less likely. Macron congratulated Lebanese and Israeli leaders for their "efforts and their determination," the Elysee Palace presidency said. "This is undeniably an important step towards more peace for Israel, for Lebanon and all the countries and peoples of the region. "It will also contribute to the prosperity of both countries." The agreement between the two sides that have remained technically at war since Israel's creation in 1948 has been applauded by world leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden. The written agreement "establishes a permanent and equitable resolution of their maritime dispute," according to a copy seen by AFP. It will go into force as soon as the U.S. sends notice confirming it has received from Lebanon and Israel their separate approvals. The two sides will then deposit maritime border coordinates with the United Nations. Under the deal, Israel has full rights over the Karish gas field which is expected to start gas production within weeks. Lebanon will have full rights to operate and explore the so-called Qana or Sidon reservoir, parts of which allegedly fall in Israel's territorial waters.

Bassil threatens to change his mind on running for president
Naharnet/October 16/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has hinted that he might change his mind and join the presidency race, as he lashed out at Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea without naming him. "Enough with the challenges and bravados. Someone wants to impose a challenge president and he wasn't even able to secure the election of a secretary. Why is he challenging? Let him at least bring the dollar exchange rate down as he had promised. Can't he see that it's going up?" Bassil said at a mass commemorating the "October 13 martyrs", apparently referring to Geagea. "We could've awaited vacuum and circumstances that are in our interest to come, because they are coming, but we thought about the country and the people and offered the biggest concession by not running yet for president, in order not to embarrass anyone or complicate the issue," Bassil added. "We are facilitating, but not in order for anyone to underestimate or disregard us. Beware, we might change our mind!" he warned. He also reiterated that the FPM "will not accept a president who doesn't have popular and parliamentary representation or who is not backed by a parliamentary bloc that is influential at the popular level, specifically in the Christian community." "We reject that the president be appointed by foreign forces," he added.

Lebanon’s Pound Sinks to Historic Low at 40,000 against US Dollar
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 16 October, 2022
The Lebanese pound has sunk to a historic low against the US dollar, trading at LBP 40,000 to the dollar on the parallel market. Lebanon’s cost of living index has also recorded a staggering hike of more than 272% in three years. Money changers on the black market traded the dollar for LBP 40,100 after maintaining the trade rate between LBP37,000-LBP39,000 for the dollar for around two weeks. The currency devaluation, coupled with increased prices, has negatively affected the purchasing power of the Lebanese.
Since currency depreciation hit Lebanon and collapsed the purchasing power of the population, the country has witnessed a significant and continuous rise in the cost of living, which reached 272% from the beginning of the year 2020 until the end of August 2022, according to data collected by the Central Administration of Statistics. Despite the published figures, many argue that the cost of living for the Lebanese had possibly even exceeded 500%. Experts note that the prices of imported goods increased at a rate that exceeded the rise in the dollar exchange rate. Moreover, the hike affected locally produced goods. Because of the price hikes, the 272% increased cost of living estimation must be revised, Information International specialists suggested. Information International studied the minimum cost of living for a Lebanese family of four members, considering the differences between living in a village or city and owning and renting. The study concluded that the cost of living ranges between LBP 20 million and LBP 26 million per month at a minimum, and an average of LBP 23 million per month, about $600, according to the distribution of costs.

No to the Resistance, Yes to its Weapons
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2022
For some, it is difficult to let go of old clothes when they become worn out, frayed, and unwearable. The reason is a sentimental attachment they have for these clothes and an old familiarity with them, which makes disposing of them akin to ripping out part of the person’s past and memory and throwing them in the bin. The problem is, in this event, the closet no longer fits any of the new clothes needed by the man whose old clothes had decayed. Something of the sort applies to the relationship some have with obsolete, or rather dilapidated, ideologies: the difficulty of disposing of them, and especially the difficulty of openly declaring this. They could rot and they could die, but none of those who had advocated these ideologies announce this. The corpse remains in the living room, and the revolting smell spreads and poisons the surrounding area, but a burial remains rejected. In the history of militant and radical movements, there are many examples, the most important of which is the death of Soviet socialism. In modern Arab history, we have others, the most important of which are the slogans of Arab unity and liberating Palestine. With that, these slogans become muted, and their end could be concealed, but candid affirmations and honest revisions remain very unlikely
Lebanon recently underwent a similar experience, the US-mediated border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel. It divulges, among other things, the end of Lebanese- Israeli confrontation and an implicit recognition by those ruling Lebanon, Hezbollah included, of the Jewish state. It establishes shared economic interests among the two sides, regardless of the unevenness in the sizes and percentages of shares. War no longer being a possibility is certainly very good news, but the matter is slightly more complicated.
Indeed, the actual death of this militant cause is accompanied, this time, by loud noises about victory through it. Hezbollah says and reiterates that its arsenal is what has ensured that we arrived at this happy ending and that this should ensure this arsenal added longevity.
We have already seen something or the sort with many similar forces and organizations in the “Third World:” this shift from a cause that necessitated carrying arms to carrying arms without the original cause. However, the difference between the ZANU in Zimbabwe, to give just one example, and Hezbollah in Lebanon is that the former ruled its country and used weapons to impose its iniquitous rule, while Hezbollah will go on governing the country from behind the curtain provided by its Aounist allies. Certainly, the hope and expectation are for the ruling coalition (Hezbollah, the Aounists, the banks, and the mafias...) to remain in control of political life for years to come. However, this conglomeration of rulers will find a boost, in addition to that “victory,” in this promised oil “treasure,” ruling out any need for reform, which the ruling coalition has never taken seriously in the first place.
The Aounist contribution to the inauguration of this new triumphant era did not take long to emerge: Michel Aoun, in his latest speech given days before the end of his term (which the overwhelming majority of Lebanese are impatiently awaiting), was not stingy with his promises to “future generations;” he also talked with the language of starting from scratch, announcing the need to demarcate our borders with Syria and… Cyprus, without hesitating to commend the performance of the man whom it is hoped will become the star of the future, his son in law Gebran Bassil, in the energy ministry! Other Aounists added “cleaning Lebanon” of Syrian refugees to the promises of this future.
And so, the “achievement that was realized thanks to the people and the resistance,” as Aoun said, should become the foundation on which stands a regime whose implicit slogan is: no to resistance, yes to its weapons.
This retreat to the domestic side of things tempts us to discuss a ruling Maronite- Shiite duo embodied in Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, whose credit and legitimacy are derived from the now-gone resistance and its “victory.” However, it also leaves questions about how shares will be distributed and the criteria by which they will be divided, whether in the country as a whole, between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, or within the Shiite sect, between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, to say nothing about the genuine questions regarding new Iranian strategies in the region.
In any case, the demarcation agreement can only become a new event, completely new, after it is acknowledged that something old has died. Such an affirmation would result in the fall of a mentality, symbols, and links that have accompanied or resulted from this old formula. As a result, the ruling party leaves the government, taking with it its submissive devotion to Iran, its congeniality with “Souria Al-Assad” (Assad’s Syria), the alliance of minorities theory, and the rest of the toolkit that justified, in one way or another, transforming Lebanon into a “country of resistance.”
The oil and gas wealth, if its existence is confirmed, makes more pressing the need for a modern state of institutions that is simultaneously patriotic, democratic and just. Under this conglomeration of rulers, on the other hand, the intention is for this wealth to become an alternative to the state, institutions, modernity, patriotism, democracy, and justice. In fact, the old clothes in Lebanon’s closet are many, and they are increasing at an unprecedented pace. No one will buy new clothes in light of such a “victory.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 16-17.2022
Harris, Blinken, Sullivan Hail Iran Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 16 October, 2022
Vice President Kamala Harris and other top US leaders on Friday hailed women leading protests in Iran as they met Iranian activists. Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan each met with Nazanin Boniadi, the Iranian-born actress and human rights advocate. Harris voiced “support for the brave women and girls leading peaceful protests in Iran to secure equal rights and basic human dignity,” the vice president’s office said in a statement. She “emphasized how the courage of these women protestors has inspired her as it has inspired the world.”
Blinken earlier led a roundtable to listen to overseas Iranians including Boniadi, known for her role in the sitcom “How I Met Your Mother,” as well as writer Roya Hakakian and gender equality activist Sherry Hakimi. Iran has seen its biggest wave of protests in years after the September 16 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality police. “In the wake of Amini's death and the spontaneous demonstration of outrage that this has produced, I think we are seeing something that is quite remarkable throughout the country, led primarily by women and young people,” AFP quoted Blinken as saying at the start of the meeting. Blinken was joined by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who has championed women’s rights, and Rob Malley, the US pointman on Iran who has led months of talks in a bid to restore a 2015 nuclear accord. Hakakian said the group urged President Joe Biden's administration to halt the talks, which could lead to an easing of sweeping sanctions on Iran if it returns to compliance with restrictions on its nuclear program. “Our suggestion unanimously was to stop the nuclear talks until the violence stops. And I think everybody heard us loud and clear,” she told National Public Radio after the meeting. White House spokesman John Kirby said Thursday that while the United States still backed the nuclear deal, it was unlikely that it would be revived “anytime in the near future.” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric, has accused the US of whipping up the protests to destabilize his country. Blinken said he anticipated similar accusations that his meeting showed the protests were coming from the outside. “If that’s the case, if they genuinely believe that, they fundamentally do not understand their own people,” Blinken said of the Iranian leadership. In this context, an Iranian filmmaker said Tehran barred him from traveling to the London Film Festival over his support for the protest movement sparked by Amini’s death that he called a “great moment in history.”“I was prevented by the Iranian authorities from boarding my flight to London on Friday,” Mani Haghighi said in a video message to festival-goers tweeted by the British Film Institute (BFI). “They gave me no reasonable explanation for this actually rude behavior.”The BFI said Haghighi had been due to attend the London Film Festival for his latest film “Subtraction,” but the Iranian authorities “confiscated his passport and he could not leave.” In the video message, the 53-year-old Iranian director, writer and actor said he believed the authorities had prevented him from going abroad over his support for the Amini protest movement. “A couple of weeks ago I recorded an Instagram video in which I criticized Iran’s mandatory hijab laws and the crackdown on the youth who are protesting it and so many other instances of injustice in their lives.”“Perhaps the authorities thought by keeping me here they could keep a closer eye on me, perhaps to threaten me and shut me up. “Well the very fact that I’m talking to you now in this video kind of undermines that plan,” he said. Haghighi said, however, that he had no regrets about being forced to stay in Iran as a “prisoner” in his own country. “Let me tell you that being here in Tehran right now is one of the greatest joys of my life.” “I cannot put into words the joy and the honor of being able to witness first-hand this great moment in history and I would rather be here than anywhere else right now.” “So if this is a punishment for what I've done, then by all means, bring it on.”

Iran Rejects Biden’s Support of Protests as Interference in State Matters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 16 October, 2022
Iran rejected as interference in Tehran's state matters US President Joe Biden's support of nationwide protests over the death of a woman in police custody, Iranian Students News Agency reported on Sunday. Commenting on weeks of anti-government protests in Iran ignited by Mahsa Amini's death on Sept. 16, Reuters reported Biden as saying on Saturday that he was surprised by the courage of the people taking to the streets in protest in Iran. "On Saturday ... Biden interfered in Iran's state matters by supporting the riots ... In recent days, the U.S. administration have tried desperately to inflame unrest in Iran under various excuses ," Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said, ISNA reported. The protests have posed one of the most serious challenges to Iran since the 1979 revolution, with demonstrations spreading across the country and some people.

Iran's celebrities face reprisals for supporting protests
Associated Press/October 16/2022
Singers, actors, sports stars — the list goes on. Iranian celebrities have been startlingly public in their support for the massive anti-government protests shaking their country. And the ruling establishment is lashing back. Celebrities have found themselves targeted for arrest, have had passports confiscated and faced other harassment. Among the most notable cases is that of singer Shervin Hajipour, whose song "For …" has become an anthem for the protest movement, which erupted Sept. 17 over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for not abiding by the Islamic Republic's strict dress code. The song begins with a soft melody, then Hajipour's resonant voice starts, "For dancing in the streets," "for the fear we feel when we kiss …" — listing reasons young Iranians have posted on Twitter for why they are taking to the streets against the ruling theocracy.
It ends with the widely chanted slogan that has become synonymous with the protests: "For women, life, freedom." Released on his Instagram page, the song quickly went viral. Hajipour paid the price: The 25-year-old was arrested and held for several days before being released on bail on Oct. 4.
Since the protests took off — and expanded from anger at Amini's death to a complete challenge to the 43-year-old rule by conservative Islamic clerics — a string of celebrities have faced reprisals, from singers and soccer players to news anchors. At least seven public figures have been detained inside the country, most of whom were released on bail and could face charges, according to Iranian news outlets. Others were questioned and released. But their popularity has also made it difficult to crack down too hard on them — in contrast to protest activists whom security forces have arrested in large numbers. Iran has a vibrant scene of singers and actors, as well as sports stars, who are closely followed by the public. Holly Dagres, an Iranian-American non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the attempts to intimidate public figures were no surprise. "Celebrities — be it athletes, actors, singers or artists — have a large following inside Iran, particularly on social media, and their support gives life to these protests," she said.
Their support has helped invigorate protesters struggling with widespread internet outages that limit their ability to have their voices heard and facing a brutal government crackdown. There have been widespread arrests, dozens have died and many more wounded. Still, protests have spread to dozens of cities, drawing broad segments of Iranian society, from schoolgirls to oil workers. One of Iran's most beloved singers of classical Persian music, Homayoun Shajarian, projected a large photo of Amini behind him on stage as he sang a traditional song, "Dawn Bird," during a tour in Australia in September.
The audience joined him in singing one of the song's most iconic lines: "The tyrant's oppression like a hunter has blown away my nest. God, Sky, Nature, bring dawn to our dark night."
When Shajarian returned to Iran, his passport and that of actress Sahar Dolatshahi, who was traveling with him, were seized at the airport. He later said on his Instagram account that they had been barred from travel. Similarly, a soccer legend in Iran, Ali Daei, had his passport confiscated at the airport when he returned from abroad. He had urged the government on social media to "solve the problems of the Iranian people rather than using repression, violence and arrests."A few days later, the passport was returned to him, he told the press. Two well known former soccer players, Hossein Mahini and Hamidreza Aliasgari, were arrested and released on bail. Mona Borzoui, a female songwriter and Mahmoud Shahriari, a former state TV showman, have also been arrested and face charges. Iranian leaders blame foreign governments for fanning the protests. Iranian Deputy Interior Minister Majid Mirahmadi said celebrities in particular have had a "steering role" in the unrest.
Mirahmadi said celebrities who have backed the protests will be allowed to atone for their "mistaken actions."He denied any athletes had been arrested but said some had received "guidance." He said Mahini, for example, had been released and given "the chance to make good on his mistakes," according to the Mehr News Agency. Public figures have not been deterred. Amirhossein Esfandiar, a national volleyball player, reposted a video of violent confrontations between security forces and protesters, writing, "You have no sense of humanity, why do you beat and kill innocent people?"Qasim Haddadifar, a veteran sportsman and former soccer captain, published photos of girls protesting and wrote he was proud of them in an Instagram story. Some players on the soccer team Persepolis F.C. reportedly wore black armbands during a Wednesday match in solidarity with the protest movement and were later summoned by security, reported British-based Iran International. Actress Hediye Tehrani said Iranian security had warned her about her posts to her nearly 1 million Instagram followers. Still, she continues to share images in support of the protests. "Millions of girls are now Mahsa Amini," she wrote in a recent post. Celebrities outside of Iran have also raised their voices, from Dua Lipa and Shakira to the fashion house Balenciaga. On Instagram, Angelina Jolie posted a photo of a protester holding up an image of Amini and wrote, "To the women of Iran, we see you."
The ruling establishment clearly sees danger in celebrities' wide reach. Ali Saaedi Shahroudi, a former representative of the Supreme Leader of Revolutionary Guards, called for an organization to oversee the behavior of musicians, actors and sports stars, similar to institutions regulating professional groups. But the damage may have already been done. Although Hajipour was forced to remove his song from Instagram, it continues to reverberate, sung by everyone from Iranian school girls to protesters in European capitals. A campaign is under way to nominate the song for a Grammy, in the best song for social change category. "While using #MahsaAmini might seem like keyboard activism, Iranians see the world's attention is on them and they appreciate it," said Dagres. "The solidarity invigorates protesters to keep braving batons and bullets to make a change in their country. It gives them hope."

Iran officials say Tehran prison blaze has been extinguished
Associated Press/October 16/2022
A towering blaze at a notorious prison housing political prisoners and anti-government activists in Iran's capital injured at least nine people but was extinguished after several hours and no detainees escaped, state media said Sunday. Flames and smoke rising from Tehran's Evin Prison had been widely visible Saturday evening, as nationwide anti-government protests triggered by the death of a young woman in police custody entered a fifth week. In online videos, gunshots and explosions could be heard in the area of the prison. State media said the fire broke out after a fight between prisoners, in an apparent attempt to distance the events there from the ongoing protests. Hundreds are being held at Evin, where human rights groups have reported repeated abuses of prisoners.State TV on Sunday aired video of the fire's aftermath, showing scorched walls and ceilings in a room it said was the upper floor of a sewing workshop at the prison. "This fire was caused by a fight between some prisoners in a sewing workshop," said Tehran Gov. Mohsen Mansouri. "The workshop was set up to create jobs" for prisoners, he said. Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported Saturday that there were clashes between prisoners in one ward and prison personnel, citing a senior security official. The official said prisoners set fire to a warehouse full of prison uniforms, which caused the blaze. He said the "rioters" were separated from the other prisoners to de-escalate the conflict.
The official said the "situation is completely under control" and that firefighters were extinguishing the flames. Later, Tehran prosecutor Ali Salehi said that calm had returned to the prison and that the unrest was not related to the protests which have swept the country for four weeks. IRNA later reported nine people had been injured, without elaborating. It published video showing burnt debris scattered around a building, with firefighters spraying down the blaze's embers. Families of inmates gathered Sunday near the prison hoping for news of their loved ones inside. Masoumeh, 49, who only gave her first name, said his 19-year-old son was taken to the prison two weeks ago after taking part in the street protests. "I cannot trust news about his health, I need to see him closely," she said. Another man, Reza, who also gave only his first name, said his brother has been in Evin Prison since last year after he was involved in a violent quarrel. "He did not call us in recent days and following last night's fire I am here to learn what happened to him," he said. The U.S.-based Center for Human Rights in Iran reported that an "armed conflict" broke out within the prison walls. It said shots were first heard in Ward 7 of the prison. This account could not immediately be corroborated. Footage of the fire circulated online. Videos showed shots ringing out as plumes of smoke rose into the sky amid the sound of an alarm. A protest broke out on the street soon after, with many chanting "Death to the Dictator!" — a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — and burning tires, the videos showed.
The semiofficial Fars news agency, believed to be close to the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard, said Sunday that some prisoners who tried to escape entered a minefield situated in the northern part of the prison. "It is said the sound of explosions was related to the case," the report said, offering no additional details. Witnesses said that police blocked roads and highways to Evin and that at least three strong explosions were heard coming from the area. Traffic was heavy along major freeways near the prison, which is in the north of the capital, and many people honked to show their solidarity with protests. Riot police were seen riding on motorbikes toward the facility, as were ambulances and firetrucks. Witnesses reported that the internet was blocked in the area.
The prison fire occurred as protesters intensified anti-government demonstrations along main streets and at universities in some cities across Iran on Saturday. Human rights monitors reported hundreds dead, including children, as the movement concluded its fourth week. The protests erupted after public outrage over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody. She was arrested by Iran's morality police in Tehran for violating the Islamic Republic's strict dress code. Iran's government insists Amini was not mistreated in police custody, but her family says her body showed bruises and other signs of beating after she was detained. On Sunday, Iran's parliament published a statement claiming that Amini did not die from any physical blow but that she fell and police waited too long to get treatment for her. It urged police to offer an apology and provide more training to its staff. It suggested police wear cameras on their uniforms and install them in cars used to transfer detainees. President Joe Biden, on a trip to Oregon, said the Iranian "government is so oppressive" and that he had an "enormous amount of respect for people marching in the streets." Evin Prison, which holds detainees facing security-related charges and includes dual citizens, has been charged by rights groups with abusing inmates. The facility has long been known for holding political prisoners as well as those with ties to the West who have been used by Iran as bargaining chips in international negotiations.

Russia military range shooting leaves 11 dead, 15 wounded
Associated Press/October 16/2022
Two men fired at soldiers on a Russian military firing range near Ukraine on Saturday, killing 11 and wounding 15 before being slain themselves, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The ministry said in a statement that the shooting took place in the Belgorod region in southwestern Russia that borders Ukraine. It said two men from an unnamed former Soviet republic fired on volunteer soldiers during target practice and were killed by return fire. The ministry called the incident a terrorist attack. The shooting comes amid a hasty mobilization ordered by President Vladimir Putin to beef up Russian forces in Ukraine — a move that triggered protests and caused hundreds of thousands to flee Russia. Putin said Friday that over 220,000 reservists already had been called up as part of an effort to recruit 300,000. He promised the mobilization would be wrapped up in two weeks. The mobilization was troubled from the start, with authorities issuing confusing signals about who should be called up for service in a country where almost all men under age 65 are listed as reservists. Even though the Russian leader declared that only people who had recently served in the military would be subject to the call-up, activists and rights groups reported military conscription offices rounding up people without any army experience — some of whom were also unfit for service for medical reasons. Some of the freshly called-up reservists posted videos of themselves being forced to sleep on the floor or even outside and given rusty weapons before being sent to the front lines. Russian media reports said some of those who were mobilized were sent to combat without receiving proper training and were quickly killed. Authorities have acknowledged the mobilization was often poorly organized and promised to improve the situation.

Palestinian Killed by Israeli Soldiers During West Bank Clash
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 16 October, 2022
Israeli soldiers shot a Palestinian during a clash in the occupied West Bank and he later died of his wounds, Palestinian health officials said on Sunday. The Israeli military said Palestinians had started "a violent riot" near the town of Qarawet Bani Hassan on Saturday and soldiers who had been operating there opened fire. One Palestinian who was shot later died, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Three others were wounded, Reuters reportd. The incident follows months of tensions that have deepened since Israeli forces began a crackdown in the West Bank in March in response to a series of attacks by Palestinians in Israel.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 16-17.2022
The United States and OPEC Plus: The Case for Prudence
Raghida Dergham/October 16/2022
US President Joe Biden has come to perceive the decision of the OPEC+ grouping to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day as a personal slap in the face by Saudi Arabia, a move against his party in the midterm elections, and a lifeline given to Vladimir Putin to rescue him from his serious economic crisis and the attempts to isolate and topple his regime in punishment for his war in Ukraine. The US president and Democratic Party leaders have subsequently threatened to respond to Saudi Arabia with unprecedented measures, labelling the kingdom’s actions as aggression and vowing to reconsider relations with Saudi Arabia. In Congress, there have been calls to reduce arms sales, downgrade security cooperation with the kingdom, and lift immunity for Saudi Arabia from US laws in certain cases. But there is no consensus in the United States on such positions, especially in the Republican Party which is fighting the Democrats in a crucial election that could prove fateful for the Biden presidency, if the Republicans win a majority in the House and the Senate and cripple the administration’s agenda.
For its part, Saudi Arabia sees the crisis as an engineered one, rooted in the US negative view of the kingdom, especially in the ranks of the Democrats. Riyadh sees US threats as naïve and reckless. It believes that blaming OPEC+ is little more than scapegoating it for US domestic oil production policies, while it is the right of OPEC+ members to make economic and commercial decisions that advance their national interests.
The geopolitical dimensions of OPEC+ decision has not escaped anyone, from China to the United States and Europe, where there are direct implications for the output cut. It is therefore necessary to deal with this decision with pragmatism and through a lens different from the one US lawmakers are used to when addressing Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia. It is also necessary for the OPEC+ countries to be alert to the delicate nature of the Western strategy vis-à-vis Russia and Putin, to avoid making risky and unnecessary gambles. Indeed, relations between the United States and countries like Saudi Arabia have mutual benefits, and need nurturing and a constructive approach to avoid falling victim to one-upmanship or short-sightedness.
It is clear now that Western leaders have resolved to topple Putin’s regime, believing this to be in the interest of Russia, after Putin and the Russian army became implicated in a losing war in Ukraine. The American assessment holds that Putin is backed into a corner from which he cannot emerge. Even if he continues attacking military and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, the United States and the rest of NATO states will not allow a Russian victory in Ukraine. In their view, this would mean keeping Putin in power, and would not be the ticket out of power the Western leaders are seeking for the Russian president.
Remarkably, there is no overwhelming fear of Putin deploying tactical nuclear weapons among Western leaders, whose response plan seems to be drafted in a way that would accelerate the end of Putin’s regime in Russia. In Russia, domestic complaints of the army’s performance in Ukraine and Putin’s blunders are whispered in “kitchen protests”, as Russians say, and increasingly voiced publicly. This too is a key part of the hopes of Western leaders, who understand a change in Moscow requires a primarily Russian ‘uprising’ as well as a foreign dimension through the efforts to isolate Putin on the international arena.
Part of why President Biden has been angered by OPEC+’s production cut agreement is related to his strategy to shape the fate of the Russian president. Biden had personally made appeals for oil production not to be reduced, as this would help rescue and rehabilitate Putin, amid NATO’s determination to isolate him and subdue him economically through sanctions.
No doubt, economic and commercial interests, and consensus among OPEC+ member states that include Russia to stabilize oil prices and return them to normal level for both producers and consumers, was central to the alliance’s decision. Naturally, however, the leaders of other states in OPEC+ were aware of the benefits of cutting production by 2 million barrels per day, including higher prices. These will be a precious gift to Putin, breaking the economic siege and isolation imposed on him, which the West wants to extend to become an international isolation.
The Russian president cannot give much in return for the huge favor the OPEC countries gave him, as long as he continues to be implicated in Ukraine war. His influence over countries like Iran is important, but this influence is shaky and depends on his fate. In other words, betting on getting Putin’s help in regional issues such as Yemen does not have a guaranteed outcome and carries risk. Moreover, the importance of the Russian president in the strategic equation with the United States has been undermined not just by the West’s plans to isolate him, but also by the collapse of the prestige of the Russian army following the developments on the battlefield in Ukraine.
The OPEC states are not expected to bow down to US pressure and backtrack from the decision to cut output, or change their minds about not wanting to be used as a bargaining chip in NATO’s war with Russia. What could prompt these states to move away from Russia however, is Putin using tactical nukes and tightening the noose of isolation around his own neck.
The G20 summit on 15 November in Bali, Indonesia, will test the policy of isolation and boycott adopted by the West against Russia. President Biden will attend the summit, joined by President Zelensky of Ukraine, who will be the star at Bali. The US president will refuse to meet with the Russian president, and Western leaders will boycott Putin’s address to the summit.
The G20’s members from the Middle East are Turkey and Saudi Arabia: Russia does not want Turkish mediation with Ukraine, but there has been growing interest from Arab countries such as the UAE to mediate behind the scenes as well as through public visits. The Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, believe their interests are better served by not falling automatically behind the Western camp in the war between NATO and Russia. They believe they can influence the Russian leadership and dissuade it from hardline positions, plans to completely devastate Ukraine’s infrastructure, and deploying nuclear weapons.
However, the war’s own dynamic could make such efforts to influence and contain impossible, because Putin cannot sustain the war unless he steps up the brutality and dirtiness of his military tactics. This is a war, not limited military operations, and the Russian president will not accept defeat no matter the cost.
NATO does not want to get directly involved in the Ukraine war, but some NATO members could become implicated, especially if the alliance decides on ‘humanitarian intervention’ in Ukraine similar to the intervention in Kosovo. If ‘protection forces’ are sent to guard vital humanitarian infrastructure and nuclear sites in Ukraine, Russian forces could attack those troops. This would force NATO to retaliate against Russian forces in the newly Russian-annexed territories in Ukraine, which could prompt Putin to deploy tactical nukes. In other words, battlefield equations may force unexpected developments, and everything is possible.
A few weeks separate us from the US midterm elections and the G20 summit in Indonesia, yet no one knows what could happen amid global tensions and violent Russian bombardment of Ukraine. These tensions should not blind anyone from the need to be prudent in their reactions and expectations, especially in official US circles. The current stage requires not a haughty approach, imposition of will, threats, and recriminations against countries that have made decisions in their national interest. Indeed, countries have a right to factor in their interests, relations, alignments and should not be so casually categorized as aggressive states.US oil policies also raise logical questions about why the United States expects others to sacrifice their own interests to serve US priorities.
Geopolitically, the world is still divided about the West’s decisions concerning Russia, although an overwhelming majority, including states from OPEC+, have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and occupation of its territories. Perhaps the most divisive issue here for the world states is the West’s resolve to topple Putin’s regime. The opposition to this is not out of love for him and his policies, but in protest against the West’s enthusiasm for regime change, in accordance with Western agendas and interests, and on a very selective basis.

Will the Europeans Do It?
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2022
The foreign ministers of the European Union will discuss on Monday the transfer of Iranian drones to Russia and their use in Ukraine. They might also agree on future sanctions tied to the matter, according to Reuters. The delay in the response of the Europeans and, before them the Americans, in dealing with the issue, despite the Ukrainians constantly talking about how the Russians have been using Shahed 136 Iranian drones- not just a while ago, but even as recently as two even days ago.
Two days ago, a website associated with the Ukrainians claimed that Iranian trainers were in Kherson and Crimea to launch Kamakazi Shadeh 136 drones.
We say that it is strange because the European Union and the United States had been keener on negotiating the Iranian nuclear deal than questioning the Iranian expansion or Iran’s crimes, not just in the region but in Europe as well.
The US administration, for example, has preoccupied everyone with the OPEC production cuts, ignoring the Ukrainian reports documenting the use of Iranian drones to target Ukrainian territory. These are the same drones that Iran uses for its terrorist operations in our region.
They are also the same drones used by the terrorist militias loyal to Iran, be it the Houthis, Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, or Aasaeb Ahel Al Haq, on Saudi territory, as well as against the Emirates, Iraq, and others.
Thus, we are facing a glaring contradiction, or rather hypocrisy, in the behavior of the US. On the one hand, the United States and Europe have ignored all the calls from the region to stand firm against Iranian drones, especially when the US and the West rushed to negotiate with Iran.
After ignoring Ukrainian demands for intervention concerning the Iranian drones, the foreign ministers of the EU have decided to intervene and look into Iran’s terrorist behavior, with hints at sanctions being made.
The important thing, rather the most important, is that sanctions not be restricted to the Ukrainian crisis. Instead, they should be more expansive; they should be imposed on the regime as a whole- real, meaningful sanctions, not cosmetic sanctions- when Iran uses its drones in our region.
The Europeans have already listened to our point of view in this regard; it has been expressed candidly and with absolute clarity, most recently last September. They were frankly told: Only now are you concerned by the Iran drones given to Russia, after years we spent convincing you that they pose a danger to us… Is Europe more important than the rest of the world?
Better late than never, as they say, and it is thus important that sanctions on the Iranian drones being used in Ukraine come with similar sanctions imposed to punish the use of these drones in our region, whether by Iran or its groups.
These sanctions should be part of a Western-American package, and they should not take lifting any of the sanctions imposed on Iran lightly, as such sanctions relief would supply the regime with additional revenue. They should avoid a repetition of the Obama administration’s mistake, which allowed Tehran to use billions of dollars to fund its destructive groups and help them evolve.
Dealing with Iran cannot take separate paths. Indeed, a clear path must be laid, one that addresses all of Iran’s destructive tools, from missiles to drones to its support for militias- not just negotiations around its nuclear program, which have failed and continue to fail. Will the Europeans do it?

The Need for Real Leadership: The Cost of Not Supporting Ukraine
Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/October 16/2022
The difficult reality is that we may never know what would push Putin to make the decision to go nuclear.... The U.S. objective should be to deter him: make the potential cost to him so high that it would be suicidal for him even to try.
The clearest and most welcome statement was made by Biden himself in March: he stated, "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."
Biden is old enough to remember that "what happens in Sudetenland does not stay in Sudetenland." If Putin is allowed to occupy Ukraine, Russia -- and undoubtedly all the other aggressor nations waiting in the wings -- China, Iran, Turkey, North Korea -- will be emboldened to begin a free-for-all of invading their countries of choice. Putin could further move to take over Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states, for a start; Turkey could move on Greece and southern Cyprus, and China would most certainly move on the world's computer-chip center, Taiwan.
Biden.... on day one, effectively closed down America's ability to produce and export oil, thereby instantly creating an acute shortage of energy worldwide. Putin could not have dreamed of a bigger gift. Immediately, the price of oil tripled, from roughly $40 to $112. Russia was making a billion dollars a day, or $360 billion a year. Biden, with a stroke of his pen, had just financed Russia's entire war on Ukraine even before granting Putin the use of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, thereby guaranteeing Russia the ability to hold Europe hostage come winter.
The problem with this response [wishing to isolate America to avoid restoring Ukraine's integrity] is that it is exactly the same view that, in 1938, led British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain to wave around a piece of paper and inaccurately claim "peace for our time" with Hitler. Chamberlain evidently saw that his British voters did not want war, so he tried to give them what they wanted. That is not great leadership; that is great followership.
People in thriving democracies usually do not want war -- ever. They can see that they are enjoying magical, free lives -- and wish to keep them. We all would like peace handed to us on a platter. Unfortunately, that is not always the available choice, particularly looking a few moves ahead. How much less costly it would have been in blood and treasure to have stopped Hitler before he crossed the Rhine. Surrender always remains an option -- but usually not a happy one.
The U.S. and EU must put in place compelling plans to address the threat of slowing economies (growth); high inflation (stop government spending); rising energy prices (re-open the oil spigots), and potential shortages... at the same time as educating the public about the even worse consequences of not supporting Ukraine.
The idea is to make Putin afraid, not Americans.
Leaders of both U.S. political parties need clearly to articulate the American strategic interest in Ukraine, where a Western defeat could mean the beginning of the end of Europe, and let Putin know in no uncertain terms what the U.S. responses to any unpleasant escalation might be. The same can be done in European capitals and NATO countries, as well. Leaders of both parties also need to lay out how they will address the current internal economic crises, their continuing support for Ukraine, defeating Putin and deterring further aggression by Russia, China, Turkey, North Korea and Iran. Short of delivering on these questions, they are doing no less than seriously jeopardizing the long-term national security of the U.S. and the West. The difficult reality is that we may never know what would push Russian President Vladimir Putin to make the decision to go nuclear. The U.S. objective should be to deter him: make the potential cost to him so high that it would be suicidal for him even to try. Pictured: Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile launchers parade through Red Square in Moscow, on May 9, 2022. (Photo by Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images)
U.S. President Joe Biden is known for making confusing and sometimes wild pronouncements that his administration is known for frequently walking back. This might have been the case when he randomly decided to tell an audience of well-heeled Democrats at a fundraiser that Russian President Vladimir Putin is "not joking" about using nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon," he added, "since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis."
Biden has since refused to clarify his remarks or explain on what he was basing them. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby took to the Sunday shows to clarify that the president was not saying an attack was imminent and this his "comments were not based on new or fresh intelligence or new indications that Mr. Putin has made a decision to use nuclear weapons."
The difficult reality is that we may never know what would push Putin to make the decision to go nuclear. Russia is known in the Intelligence Community as what is called a hard target country: difficult for U.S. agencies to penetrate to get information. That problem has been exacerbated the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. The U.S. objective should be to deter him: make the potential cost to him so high that it would be suicidal for him even to try.
Putin's plan was to seize Kyiv in two days, CIA Director Bill Burns told Congress. Another assessment, reportedly based on U.S. intelligence assessments, estimated that Kyiv would fall within "one to four days," Another story stated that at the start of the war, the U.S. offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "a ride" out of Ukraine. Americans need to recognize how limited the insights and understanding are that our leadership may have into some serious international threats.
There is always great uncertainty associated with war; the war in Ukraine is no different. Our Intelligence Community is certainly using all available sources and methods to gather crucial insights into Putin's thinking and planning, including his possible use of nuclear or chemical weapons. No one, of course, knows for sure. What we do know is that a case must be made by the U.S. and the coalition of countries why supporting Ukraine is clearly in our strategic interest and the interest of the West. Secondly, it needs to be made unmistakably clear to Putin what the U.S. response would be if he used chemical or nuclear weapons anywhere, and especially if he tried to attack a NATO member country.
Unfortunately, the Biden administration, with its lack of clarity, has sown only a dangerous confusion that invites attacks. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, President Biden seemed to imply there would be fewer consequences for just a "minor incursion." Putin understandably saw it as a green light; the Ukrainians were understandably alarmed by the statement, and as all too often, the White House staff were left scrambling to clarify it.
In late April, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin with Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. wanted to see Russia weakened -- remarks that also later had to be clarified.
The clearest and most welcome statement was made by Biden himself in March. "For God's sake," he stated, "this man cannot remain in power."
Biden's remarks sounded very like regime change -- a major reversal of U.S. policy. The White House rushed to clarify once again that Biden had not meant what he said. Biden pointedly, to his credit, said that he was "not walking back" his original statement.
Biden is old enough to remember that "what happens in Sudetenland does not stay in Sudetenland." If Putin is allowed to occupy Ukraine, Russia -- and undoubtedly all the other aggressor nations waiting in the wings -- China, Iran, Turkey, North Korea, as well as terrorist groups -- will be emboldened to begin a free-for-all of invading their countries of choice. Putin could further move to take over Moldova, Poland and the Baltic states, for a start; Turkey could move on Greece and southern Cyprus, and China would most certainly move on the world's computer-chip center, Taiwan.
It is heartening that with Biden's constantly blurting out statements and his staff's constantly rushing to clarify them, a late summer poll indicated that 53% of the American people emphatically supported U.S. assistance to Ukraine until Russian forces are fully withdrawn.
In Europe, while there is strong support for Ukraine and its accession to the EU, there are sharp divides, mostly over fears created by Biden's having, on day one, effectively closed down America's ability to produce and export oil, thereby creating an acute shortage of energy worldwide. Putin could not have dreamed of a bigger gift. Immediately, the price of oil tripled, from roughly $40 to $112; Russia was making a billion dollars a day, or $360 billion a year. Biden, with a stroke of his pen, had just financed Russia's entire war on Ukraine even before granting Putin the use of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, thereby guaranteeing Russia the ability to hold Europe hostage come winter.
Meanwhile, according to another poll, 35% of people sampled across 10 countries wanted peace as soon as possible, while only 22% wanted justice, meaning holding Russia accountable and restoring Ukrainian territorial integrity.
The problem with this response is that it is exactly the same view that, in 1938, led British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain to wave around a piece of paper and inaccurately claim "peace for our time" with Hitler. Chamberlain apparently saw that his British voters did not want war, so he tried to give them what they wanted. That is not great leadership; that is great followership. Sadly, until the end of the war 1945, European paid an exorbitant price.
People in thriving democracies usually do not want war -- ever. They can see that they are enjoying magical, free lives -- and wish to keep them. We all would like peace handed to us on a platter. Unfortunately, that is not always the available choice, particularly if you look a few moves ahead. How much less costly it would have been in blood and treasure to have stopped Hitler before he crossed the Rhine. Surrender always remains an option – but usually not a happy one.
The same, second, poll found that residents of those 10 countries were extremely concerned about the rising costs of living and energy and the potential use by Russia of nuclear weapons. The poll also noted that a gap was developing between the wishes of citizens and the actions of their governments that should cause concern. It is likely that, as inflation hit 10% in the EU, public sentiment there shifted toward peace. There is still the real possibility that parts of Europe will face severe energy shortages. Germany's energy regulator just announced the possibility of natural gas rationing this winter.
Given inflation and energy concerns, along with ongoing jitters about the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia, there are clear threats on the horizon to maintaining public support for Ukraine's war efforts.
In the U.S., there have now been two consecutive quarters of negative growth, often used as the definition of an economy in recession. Germany's leading economic forecasters have slashed economic growth forecasts for 2022 from 2.7% to 1.4%, and predicted that Germany will enter a recession in 2023 with economic growth of negative 0.4%. As Germany is the EU's largest economy , a recession there could drag the rest of the EU into one as well.
Inflation in the U.S. is running at slightly over 8%, just below the 10% in the EU. Consumer confidence in the U.S has dipped by roughly 20% in the last year. In the UK, consumer confidence has dipped by 10% in just the last month. In Germany it has dropped to 35% since the beginning of 2022, with comparable numbers for France (18%), Spain (21%), and Italy (28%).
The U.S. and EU must put in place compelling plans to address the threat of slowing economies (growth), high inflation (stop government spending), rising energy prices (open the oil spigots) and potential shortages (the first three should fix that) at the same time as educating the public about the even worse consequences of not supporting Ukraine. Finally, U.S. and the EU must clearly articulate to Putin what is at stake in Ukraine and how they might respond to the use of a Russian nuclear weapon. President Trump reportedly told Putin that if he invaded Ukraine, the U.S. would "hit Moscow." Despite accusations that Trump was "soft" on Russia, Trump, while "speaking softly," did not give Putin the two things he wanted most: an extension of the New START Treaty, which limits the number of American nuclear weapons, and which Biden delivered to Putin a few weeks into his term; and approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which Biden delivered to Putin that October. Putin did not invade anyone.
The idea is to make Putin afraid, not Americans.
Leaders of both U.S. political parties need clearly to articulate the American strategic interest in Ukraine, where a Western defeat could mean the beginning of the end of Europe, and let Putin know in no uncertain terms what the U.S. responses to any unpleasant escalation might be. The same can be done in European capitals and NATO countries, as well.
If the U.S., NATO, and the EU are going to maintain public support, their leaders would do well to speak to the people they serve, not just about diversity in the military -- which might as well have been Russian propaganda for what the U.S. has to show for it: a roughly 50% recruiting crisis. Leaders of both parties also need to lay out how they will address the current internal economic crises, their continuing support for Ukraine, defeating Putin and deterring further aggression by Russia, China, Turkey, North Korea and Iran. Short of delivering on these questions, they are doing no less than seriously jeopardizing the long-term national security of the U.S. and the West.
Peter Hoekstra was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the second district of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. He is currently Chairman of the Center for Security Policy Board of Advisors and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Iran: Freedom-Lovers Win a Round
Amir Taheri/Asharq al-Awsat/October 16/2022
The various parts if the repressive machine didn't know what do. In the city of Sari, for example, they arrested 786 people in one day before they realized they had nowhere to keep them. Unlike supporters of the regime mostly of older generations, who gain self-esteem from bestowed but easily withdrawable privilege, the mostly young activists of horizontal society, regard themselves as being "somebody" even if only because they have the mandatory 5,000 followers on the Facebook. They want to be subjects in their own life-story, not objects in someone else's dystopian dream. The Khomeinist system was exposed as a colossus with a foot of clay. What we have witnessed in Iran in these weeks, and continue to witness, is a gigantic clash between a vertical power structure and a horizontal popular movement. Pictured: The scene of an anti-regime protest in Tehran, Iran on October 8, 2022. As the uprising in Iran enters its fourth week, speculation about its future is rife. Participants insist that they are on the path to victory, achieving regime change. They cite a number of reasons.
To start with, this is the first time that a national uprising isn't about any particular grievance that could be rectified by the regime; what is at stake is total rejection of a system. Next, there is the fact that the regime has been unable to regain control of the public space with the speed and efficiency it did on other occasions since 1979.
Adversaries of the uprising, regime apologists or those concerned about socio-political disintegration, believe that though the massive rejection of the regime by so many Iranians, if not the majority, is bound to cause permanent damage to it, straight regime change is not yet in the cards.
To back their analysis they, too, offer arguments.
To start with, despite losses in its support base, both in the better-off strata and the mass of the poor, the regime still manages to tempt remaining supporters with a mixture of bribes, in the form of raises in public sector salaries, private sector wages, pensions and subsidies. The regime has also started a background music about a post-Khamenei future with the subtext that the demise of the octogenarian "Supreme Guide" would offer opportunities for long-overdue reforms. Finally, like all scoundrels who wrap themselves in patriotic colors, the regime is manipulating the bogey of secessionism. A closer look at what has happened in the past month, however, may offer a different vista on what is a crucial moment in Iran's checkered contemporary history.
What we have witnessed in these weeks, and continue to witness, is a gigantic clash between a vertical power structure and a horizontal popular movement.
In the vertical power structure, all individual or group positions are determined by their distance from the top of the pyramid which, in the Islamic Republic, is the "House of the Leader" (Beit-e-Rahbar), the real power-house that employs over 11,000 people under the "Supreme Guide".
It is there that all key civilian, military, academic, cultural, media, business and theological functionaries are chosen and appointed. It is also there that all major and medium decisions are made, and perks and favors are distributed.
Based on terror and greed, vertical power has the advantage of acting quickly and harmoniously in advancing its goals and crushing opponents. However, vertical power also has its Achilles' heel. It is enough that one level of the pyramid becomes shaky for the rest of it to feel unstable.
Worse still, vertical power could find itself challenged by a horizontal society in a state of rebellion as it is happening in Iran now. Since 1979, the Khomeinist regime, a vertical power, has faced equal oppositions with vertical leadership structures and demands, making it easier to calm or crush them.
That kind of opposition could be weakened by vilifying or even murdering its leaders.
During the past 43 years, the Islamic Republic has assassinated 117 leaders of many different groups abroad and executed countless others inside Iran.
Dealing with a vertical opposition, the regime could also offer concessions or dangle the carrot of "negotiations" as it did with Kurdish autonomists before murdering their leaders in Vienna and Berlin. Another disadvantage of a vertical opposition is that it brings ideological political and even personal grudges, jealousies and ambitions to the fore, thus weakening the whole.
When the current uprising started, the "House of the Leader" believed that it was facing another vertical opposition that could be bullied, bribed or browbeaten into submission. It tried to sow dissension by singling out a host of known figures among exile activists or even semi-detached former officials and apologists of the regime as leaders of the uprising.
Soon, however, it became clear that the current uprising has a horizontal structure emanating from its spontaneous nature. But it was not until two weeks had passed that the brigadier-general in charge of Islamic Security, Hussein Ashtari, noted that "this thing has numerous field leaders." Even the arrest of almost 2,000 people didn't succeed in calming things.
Unable to understand what was going on, vertical power played its classical tune. As usual, the "Supreme Guide" remained in purdah in order to reappear once the uprising would be crushed as quickly as he hoped. This time that didn't happen. Khamenei's silence for 16 days meant that vertical power couldn't use the advantages of verticality, that is to say speedy decision-making and quick action.
The various parts if the repressive machine didn't know what do. In the city of Sari, for example, they arrested 786 people in one day before they realized they had nowhere to keep them.
In Zahedan, Islamic Security used live bullets, claiming over 100 lives. In Bushehr, the same security allowed protesters to occupy official buildings. In Khuzestan, the governor ordered a closure of schools ostensibly because of dust-storms, but to prevent protests.
A nervous commander in Tehran sent a heavily armed unit to Bandar Abbas to quell protests in the island of Qishm. But by the time it arrived, Qishm was quiet and gunmen went shopping.
Horizontality helped the protesters in several ways.
They could quickly move from one neighborhood to another in an endless hide-and-seek with Islamic Security that was hampered by moving around and parking their armored cars and motorcycles.
In terms of rhythm and tempo, vertical power was at a disadvantage dealing with a horizontal society. It was as if the picture had become too big for its frame.
Unlike supporters of the regime mostly of older generations, who gain self-esteem from bestowed but easily withdrawable privilege, the mostly young activists of horizontal society, regard themselves as being "somebody" even if only because they have the mandatory 5,000 followers on the Facebook. They want to be subjects in their own life-story, not objects in someone else's dystopian dream.
Are we getting close to the crux of the matter?
The Khomeinist system was exposed as a colossus with a foot of clay. History shows that horizontal movements could win tactical victories, but might not achieve strategic victory without adopting a measure of verticality, that is to say developing a central leadership structure and the broad outline of a political project. In 1848, horizontal revolutionary movements tactically won across Western Europe but strategic victory went to old reactionary forces. In 1917, a horizontal movement toppled the Tsarist Empire yet strategic victory didn't go to Kerensky, but to Lenin, who offered the verticality needed at the time. More recently the "Arab Spring" toppled vertical power structures but ended up with their return in different ways. Iranian freedom-lovers have won a decisive round victory, but much remains to be done before they secure final victory. Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987.

Now is the time for the West to support the Iranian people
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 17/2022
Ever since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the West has spent a significant amount of political and economic capital on countering the Iranian regime’s destructive behavior, terror activities and military adventurism in the region. But not only has the theocratic establishment not changed the core pillars of its ideological and revolutionary ideals, it has even ratcheted up its malign behavior.
Consider all the political capital and time that has been spent addressing the Iranian regime’s nuclear threat. Think about all the billions of dollars that have been spent on countering Iran’s proxies and allies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militia groups, Al-Qaeda and its terror cells in foreign countries.
But there is another path that can be taken to usher in change in Iran’s political establishment — a path that is more effective and less costly — and that is supporting the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people and civil society, which are now rising up against the ruling clerics.
Protesters have been clear that they want Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the other leading clerics to step down. Disenchantment with the ruling clerics is high. Iran has a very young population, meaning that the majority of the people were born after the revolution of 1979. Many are highly educated, technologically savvy, secular and Westernized, as well as being disaffected with the current political establishment. They have aspirations for a representative, inclusive and democratic system of government, in which the clerical establishment plays no role in the destiny, decision-making or political affairs of their nation. Many Iranians argue that a democratic system of governance would significantly improve the country’s living standards, social justice, human rights, rule of law and global image.
The West can help the Iranian people accomplish their goal of self-determination by forcefully and publicly supporting them and halting any negotiations with the regime. They can also initiate an urgent UN session to address Tehran’s brutal crackdown on protesters, as well as its egregious human rights violations. After all, any fundamental change in the theocratic establishment, should the people of Iran achieve their aspirations, would be a win-win scenario for both the people and the West.
Any fundamental change in the theocratic establishment would be a win-win scenario for both the people and the West
One of the key foreign policy, religious and revolutionary pillars of Iran’s political establishment is opposing the West, particularly the US, which they call “the Great Satan.” Without this crucial pillar of the ayatollahs’ foreign policy — and considering the fact that Iran has one of the most pro-American, Westernized societies in the region, as well as a technologically savvy population that values advanced nations — Iran and the West, particularly the US, would likely build one of the staunchest geopolitical, economic and strategic alliances in the region.
The Iranian regime’s policies toward Arab nations and the Muslim world are generally centered on several major pillars: Sectarianism (Sunni versus Shiite), ethnic (Arab versus Persian) and revolutionary (exportation of its version of Islam). The interactions between these pillars explain the heightened tensions the Iranian regime has caused with other countries in the region. In an Iran where the clerics are not in control of the political establishment, two major pillars of Iran’s regional policies would change: Sectarianism and revolutionary.
This would also alter Iran’s geopolitical strategies and economic calculations. When sectarianism and the revolutionary ideals of the Iranian regime are taken out of the foreign policy equation, the tensions created by Tehran with Arab and Muslim countries would significantly diminish. Regional tensions and internal conflicts in several countries — such as Syria and Iraq, where the Islamic Republic plays a critical role in directing and influencing conflict — would most likely dramatically subside.
An Iran without the clerics in power would most likely not believe that it is in its best interests and thus part of its national agenda to export Shiism to predominantly Sunni nations and to project itself as a victim based on sectarian theology. Iran’s priorities would also not be anchored in supporting, arming and financing its militia groups and proxies across the region. That would mean less interference in the domestic affairs of other countries.
In addition, an Iran without the clerics in power would be likely to anchor and prioritize its relationships with other Arab nations based on economic and geopolitical interests, rather than ideological and religious ones.
In a nutshell, for almost four decades, the West has spent a considerable amount of political and economic capital on countering the Iranian regime and its militia and terror groups. But it has not been successful in changing the core pillars of the regime’s policies. Now, it has the opportunity to do so by supporting the Iranian people and their aspirations.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh