English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 02/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
If you endure pain when you do right and suffer for it, you have God’s approval. For to this you have been called, because Christ also suffered for you, leaving you an example, so that you should follow in his steps
First Letter of Peter 02,/18-25:”Slaves, accept the authority of your masters with all deference, not only those who are kind and gentle but also those who are harsh. For it is to your credit if, being aware of God, you endure pain while suffering unjustly. If you endure when you are beaten for doing wrong, where is the credit in that? But if you endure when you do right and suffer for it, you have God’s approval. For to this you have been called, because Christ also suffered for you, leaving you an example, so that you should follow in his steps. ‘He committed no sin, and no deceit was found in his mouth.’ When he was abused, he did not return abuse; when he suffered, he did not threaten; but he entrusted himself to the one who judges justly. He himself bore our sins in his body on the cross, so that, free from sins, we might live for righteousness; by his wounds you have been healed. For you were going astray like sheep, but now you have returned to the shepherd and guardian of your souls.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 01-02/2022
Dar Al-Fatwa declares Monday as first day of Fitr Feast
Al-Rahi marking the outset of the Marian month from Harissa: Tragedy of Tripoli's sinking boat should not be a 'passing...
Aoun greets workers on Labor Day, calls for productive economy
Berri discusses relevant demands with heads of official primary, secondary, vocational & technical educational institutions
Parliamentary Elections - Berri in a message to Lebanon's expatriates: Let your vote on May 6 & 8 be for national constants, not for electoral promises
Bassil says FPM may boycott elections if freedom of movement not protected
Lebanese students in limbo after fleeing Ukraine war
Health Ministry: 89 new Corona cases, 1 death
Walid Jumblatt: Only disasters have resulted from Aoun's mandate, Nasrallah is the one who decides the president
Al-Mortada on Labor Day: Despite all crises, we can only cling to the authenticity of the Lebanese & their ability to overcome...
Al-Shami partakes in World Bank, International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, says 'failure to implement reforms will have...
"Foreign Ministry a den of clientelism & absolute corruption," deems Geagea
Al-Makari bestows 'Silver Order of Merit' upon late novelist Farshakh: We hope for a better homeland despite all hardships of this stage

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 01-02/2022
19th century Iraq church holds first Mass since Daesh defeat
Twenty civilians evacuated from besieged Mariupol plant
Ukraine FM asks China to be security guarantor
Pelosi backs Zelensky in 'fight for freedom' on Kyiv visit
Former Saudi intelligence chief calls for sanctioning Israel, criticizes Western double standards on Russia
Six missiles fall near oil refinery in Iraq’s Irbil — statement
Suspected IS militants blow up gas pipeline in Egypt's Sinai
Turkish police hold dozens in May Day demonstrations

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 01-02/2022
Time for action not words if Iran really wants to be a good neighbor/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 01/2022
Muslim Brotherhood’s influence in US should be confronted and defeated/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/May 01/2022
Suicide is a risk for college students worldwide/Tala Jarjour/Arab News/May 01/2022
Macron must unite France or risk emboldening nationalists/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/May 01/2022
What To Do About China/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/May 01/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 01-02/2022
Dar Al-Fatwa declares Monday as first day of Fitr Feast
NNA - Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, has announced in a statement that "Sunday, May 1, is the day that completes the thirty-day period of the blessed month of Ramadan," and therefore, "Monday, May 2, 2022 AD, is the first day of Eid Al-Fitr.""As we congratulate Muslims on this blessed occasion, we ask God Almighty to accept their fasting, prayers, good deeds and supplications, and to bless all the Lebanese with goodness, security and tranquility," the Mufti said.
Derian will perform the Eid Al-Fitr prayer and sermon at 6:35 on the morning of Eid at the "Mohammad Al-Amine Mosque" in downtown Beirut, while apologizing for not receiving well-wishers on the occasion.

Al-Rahi marking the outset of the Marian month from Harissa: Tragedy of Tripoli's sinking boat should not be a 'passing...
NNA/May 01/2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, presided this morning over the feast Mass of "Our Lady of Lebanon" and the start of the Marian month in the Basilica of "Our Lady of Lebanon" in Harissa. In his homily, the Patriarch prayed to the Virgin Mary, the Lady of Lebanon, on her feast, "to protect our homeland and our people, preserve it as the land of faith and prayer, and sow peace in the hearts." "With the beginning of the Marian month, we raise our eyes and our hearts to our Mother, the Virgin Mary, the Lady of Lebanon, and with the Lebanese, we are looking for a new hope that prayers may bring to them, becoming their main longing as recovery plans and reform projects remain useless in an atmosphere of utmost hatred, and as the positive effect of parliamentary and presidential elections remains limited unless accompanied by the spirit of harmony and devotion, for no issue or crisis is resolved with grudges," the Patriarch said. "With kindness we resolve any disagreement even if deep, while with hatred we fail to resolve any disagreement even if superficial," al-Rahi affirmed. Referring to the recent Tripoli boat tragic incident, the Patriarch said: "Images of the sinking boat disaster off Tripoli's shores are still vivid before our eyes, and the pain continues in our hearts as we see the death of children, youth, mothers and fathers, and we prayed for the souls of the fallen victims and for comfort and condolences to their families. It is not permissible for this tragedy to be a mere passing event, as some people try to turn its page just as they are trying to turn the page on the Beirut port blast and the explosion of the village of Al-Tleil in Akkar and others...Therefore, we call on the state to conduct a transparent and impartial investigation to determine responsibilities and put an end to questions and suspicion, especially that we are on the eve of parliamentary elections."On the awaited parliamentary elections, al-Rahi confirmed that "with the people of good will, we are keen on ensuring that the elections take place in a safe and democratic atmosphere."
He added: "Our priority is to stabilize Lebanon's entity and its national security so that it can carry out the constitutional obligations without surprises. We renew our call on the citizens to vote massively to regain the initiative of self-determination from those who have tampered with their fate and subjected Lebanon to collapse, its identity to fraud and its state institutions and decisions to infringement."The Patriarch urged Lebanese citizens to fulfill their voting rights and duties, stressing that "the elections give every citizen the opportunity to translate the slogan that democracy is the rule of the people by the people."
"It is the duty of the Lebanese to take advantage of this entitlement to tell the world which Lebanon they desire, and to inform the countries that follow Lebanese affairs that they reject every proposal for a settlement or bargaining project that is inconsistent with the reality of Lebanon, and does not respect the sacrifices made by the Lebanese people to preserve their independence, civilization and existence," al-Rahi underscored. "It is clear that the majority of the Lebanese adhere to a free, democratic and neutral Lebanon; a Lebanon of national partnership and charter; a Lebanon of historical identity, justice and equality; a Lebanon of one army and constitutional institutions," he went on, underlining that the Lebanese want to "live, prosper and have a free economy."In this context, the Patriarch emphasized that "sacrificing people's deposits in banks is not an inevitable fate, for there are other scientific solutions available that are capable of reconciling between addressing the state's debt and its income on the one hand, and preserving depositors' funds on the other hand." "Yes, there are solutions for depositors if we mix technical proposals with creative ideas," al-Rahi reiterated, regretting that "most of the solutions proposed to solve the economic and financial crisis are alternatives to the original solution, because they are based on a narrow technical angle, ignoring the political dimension and turning a blind eye to the fait accompli that led the country to this collapse."

Aoun greets workers on Labor Day, calls for productive economy
Naharnet/May 01/2022
President Michel Aoun on Sunday greeted Lebanese workers as the country marked Labor Day, pledging that he will continue to work for “transforming Lebanon’s economy from a rentier economy into a productive one.”“From the middle of the difficult circumstances that we are suffering, I address an appreciation salutation to every Lebanese worker,” Aoun said in a statement. “I pledge to the Lebanese and to workers that I will continue to work to dispel the clouds of the crises that resulted from years of accumulations, for which Lebanon’s workers paid hefty prices,” the President added.
They can make “the biggest contribution in transforming Lebanon’s economy from a rentier economy into a productive one that would keep our country’s sons in their homeland and grant them a promising future,” Aoun went on to say.

Berri discusses relevant demands with heads of official primary, secondary, vocational & technical educational institutions
NNA/May 01/2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, met today at his Mseileh residence with the heads of official primary, secondary, vocational and technical educational institutions in Lebanon, in the presence of members of the associations’ administrative bodies, where discussions focused on the demands and rights of teachers and measures to fortify the formal education sector and secure its continuity amidst the prevailing economic and financial conditions. In this context, the Speaker made contacts with the concerned ministers and financial authorities to secure the legitimate rights of teachers as soon as possible. Berri also received today a delegation from the town of Anqoun, which included a number of its scouting, municipal, voluntary and youth dignitaries, during which the delegation renewed the commitment of Anqoun, with all its figures, families, and political and civil forces, to the constants of Imam Al-Sadr and his project of unity, coexistence, and protection of civil peace.

Parliamentary Elections - Berri in a message to Lebanon's expatriates: Let your vote on May 6 & 8 be for national constants, not for electoral promises
NNA/May 01/2022
In a message addressed to Lebanese expatriates who will head to polling stations to cast their votes on May 6 & 8, House Speaker Nabih Berri called on them to "demonstrate widest participation in this national event par excellence and the most important in the history of Lebanon," and to "go to the polls free from electoral discourse that is heavily charged with hateful sectarian incitement.” He called on the Lebanese residing in Asia, Europe, Africa, Australia and the United States to "vote massively" for the candidates of the "Amal and Loyalty" lists in the South, Central and Western Bekaa, Baalbek, Hermel, Zahle, Beirut, Southern Metn and Jbeil districts. "Let your vote on the sixth and eighth of May be for national constants and not for electoral promises. Let your vote be for unity and not fragmentation. Let your vote be for Lebanon in its Arab identity and belonging; Lebanon that is committed to the best relations with its Arab brothers, all the Arabs, from the ocean to the Gulf, and with its friends all over the world," Berri said. He added: "Let your vote be for those who believe in dialogue as a way to approach all contentious issues under the constitution's rooftop and to protect civil peace. Let your vote be for the independence and reform of the judiciary, rendering it an authority above maliciousness and free from political interference, an authority capable of realizing the truth and establishing the rules of justice in accordance with the logic of the constitution and the law."He urged all members of the Lebanese Diaspora to vote for "an open and transparent dialogue under the dome of Parliament to approve an economic recovery plan that enshrines the full rights of all depositors as a sacred right not to be neglected under any headlines.""Let your vote be for Lebanon as a civil state and the adoption of an electoral law outside the sectarian restriction on the basis of proportionality in accordance with expanded constituencies, and a senate in which all sects are represented fairly, and for lowering the voting age to 18 years and establishing a quota for women," the Speaker went on. "Let your vote on the sixth and eighth of May be for establishing the ministries of expatriates and planning," Berri emphasized. "Let your vote be to preserve the headlines of Lebanon’s power, the army and the people, and the resistance in order to curb Israel’s aggression and to invest all of Lebanon’s wealth in the sea without any compromise on the sovereign rights, and rejecting any form of normalization" he underlined, adding, "Let your vote be for rejection of settlement and support for the return of the displaced.”Berri asserted that all of the above headlines are at the core of the "Amal and Loyalty" ballot lists, calling for the "trust and immeasurable loyalty" of the Lebanese, concluding: "You are the hope, and always and forever with you lies the utmost endeavour!"

Bassil says FPM may boycott elections if freedom of movement not protected
Naharnet/May 01/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has lamented that a “problem” happens whenever he wants to visit a certain region, warning that the FPM may boycott the May 15 parliamentary elections if authorities do not protect freedom of movement for him and the other FPM candidates. Bassil voiced his remarks at an FPM rally in Akkar’s Rahbe, where he managed to arrive following hours of tensions, clashes and unrest over his visit. “Is it acceptable during the period of election that a problem happen whenever we want to visit a region? This question is addressed to the government and its premier and ministers, topped by the interior and defense ministers,” Bassil said. “Where are the equal opportunities in elections if we cannot visit a region in which the FPM and its allies can win three MPs?” he asked. “Today we are in Akkar, tomorrow we will be in Aley, Chouf and Jezzine, and the day after tomorrow we will be in the Bekaa and Beirut. We either be capable of movement along with all citizens, or else authorities would be incapable of holding the elections, which would push us to suspend our participation” in the polls, Bassil warned. He added: “We arrived here due to security escorting, but how could heroic and unarmed people arrive here if there are roadblocks and rocket attacks and if weapons are deployed on the roads? How can people come to take part in elections if we don’t provide them with security, especially after megacenters that would have allowed them to vote where they are were rejected?”A clash broke out Saturday between protesters and FPM supporters at the Rahbe intersection, leaving the FPM's official in the area, Tony Assi, wounded. The army later clashed with protesters and managed to reopen the road to Rahbe, where Bassil delivered his speech. The protests over the visit had started overnight and continued into Saturday. In addition to the clashes, the movements included the torching of Bassil posters and the blocking of several roads.

Lebanese students in limbo after fleeing Ukraine war
Agence France Presse/May 01/2022
Lebanese university students who fled Ukraine are now struggling to complete their education back home, facing a precarious future as an unprecedented economic crisis crushes their country and their career prospects. "Even war is better than being here," said 25-year-old Yasser Harb, who left Kyiv just two days before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. The final-year medical student is now back in a country where electricity is scarce, public services are dysfunctional at best, the local currency has collapsed and living costs have skyrocketed. He and fellow students are now battling to continue their studies remotely, while others face interruptions amid obstacles to transferring their enrolment. Beirut said in late March that around 1,000 students had managed to leave Ukraine, long a destination for Lebanese seeking more affordable universities. At least 340 of them have registered with Lebanon's education ministry to continue their studies. But Education Minister Abbas Halabi said none of those registered had joined a private university in Lebanon, noting that most had arrived mid-semester. He acknowledged that students "whose universities in Ukraine were bombed could not even recover their transcripts" to proceed with re-enrolment back home.Bassam Badran, president of the country's only public university, the Lebanese University, said returning students would have to wait until the next academic year to enroll. "They will have to pass the entrance examination at the start of the next school year," he said.
'No sense'
Since returning, Harb has been struggling to complete his degree online from his family home in south Lebanon, as power cuts of up to 23 hours a day wreak havoc with his internet connection and his studies. Even electricity from expensive private generators can be unstable and rarely covers the gaps. "Slow internet makes it hard to understand what our teachers are saying and affects our grades," he told AFP, adding that he was thinking of returning to Ukraine once flights resume. The capital Kyiv has managed to maintain electricity supply despite the ongoing conflict, and public transport has remained functional, with life steadily resuming a semblance of normalcy. "In Kyiv, at least I had all the basic services," Harb said. Samer Dakdouk, a fifth-year medical student at university in Kharkiv, is also struggling to adjust to studying from remote in Lebanon. "Nothing is easy for us here," said the 23-year-old, who occasionally interns at a hospital in Beirut. "Hospital positions are rare in Lebanon but practice is crucial," he said. "Having an online medical degree makes no sense."
'Burden'
Lebanon's economic crisis has spurred an exodus, with many of the country's educated youth, as well as medical professionals, among those flooding out. Its higher education system, once a source of national pride, has also taken a battering. According to the Arab Barometer survey published in April, nearly half of Lebanon's population is looking to leave. Nathalie Deeb, 24, managed to flee Ukraine for Germany and continue her medical studies remotely from there. "I didn't go back to Lebanon because Germany offers more opportunities and I don't want to burden my parents," she said. Since 2019, the Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 percent of its value, and the monthly minimum wage -- once equivalent to $450 -- is now worth about $25. Deeb said annual tuition fees at her university in Kyiv were around $4,400 per year -- five times less than re-enrolling at the average private Lebanese university. The faculty of medicine at the public Lebanese University is saturated with applicants and only accepts a select few. Deeb's father already had to sell their family home in Beirut and move back to his native village in south Lebanon so he could afford to pay for her studies in Ukraine. She said she was "lucky" to have been able to stay in Europe instead of returning to Lebanon. "Those who went back regret it," she said.

Health Ministry: 89 new Corona cases, 1 death
NNA/May 01/2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced on Sunday the registration of 89 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1,097,044.
The report added that one death was recorded during the past 24 hours.

Walid Jumblatt: Only disasters have resulted from Aoun's mandate, Nasrallah is the one who decides the president
NN/May 01/2022
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, said that "the electoral battle is never equal," adding that "in the end we are waging a political battle." "Hezbollah is an armed party, yes, but we hope that this political voice will have a balanced presence in the next parliament, in order to tell Hezbollah and other groups of the axis of resistance, Syria and Iran, that things cannot be managed in this way," he said. Speaking in an interview with Al-Qabas newspaper, Jumblatt indicated, however, that he "always adopts dialogue with Hezbollah, because there is no alternative to this dialogue."
As for his severe criticism against President Michel Aoun, Jumblatt said: "It does not stem from personal reasons, but rather because of his disastrous achievements," adding that "the mandate of Aoun has only resulted in disasters, with his inability to remove symbols offensive to his reign and rectify his mandate."
"The covenant is over. We can only wait in the hope that we will have an acceptable president and that a new disaster will not come to us if he [Aoun]renews the mandate of one of his entourage members," Jumblatt underlined.
Asked about his vision for the next president, he replied that he is not a member of Parliament to vote, saying: "MP Taymour Jumblatt is the one who will choose," stressing that "the important thing is for there to be a Lebanese president, not a president who is a tool in the hands of the Syrians and the Iranians."
In response to a question about Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah as being the one who decides the president of the republic in Lebanon, Jumblatt said: "Yes, the countries decide, and Hassan Nasrallah decides. The presidency in Lebanon has always been the result of an international track, but it is better for the Lebanese people to decide on their president."Referring to the intimidations against him, he said: "Many times, attempts were made to abolish Walid Jumblatt, long before May 7, 2008," adding, "They tried to abolish the Jumblatt family in 1977 when they assassinated Kamal Jumblatt, but we remained steadfast, and we will remain this time as well." Regarding the Syrian regime's role in the electoral battle and Moscow's position, he considered that "there is a Syrian role, certainly with Iran, but Moscow is far and receives all people."Touching on the long-awaited parliamentary elections, Jumblatt believed that "the democratic elections will happen despite the security events, and there is no fear about the elections, as they will happen." "The tragedy of the sinking boat in Tripoli is the result of the overwhelming despair that fills the people of the North and the Lebanese in general...We talk about boats carrying refugees to Cyprus and the West, and we forget the economic situation, the collapse, and the unwillingness of some components to embark on reform," Jumblatt added regretfully.

Al-Mortada on Labor Day: Despite all crises, we can only cling to the authenticity of the Lebanese & their ability to overcome...
NNA/May 01/2022
Minister of Culture, Judge Mohammad Wissam Al-Mortada, issued a statement today marking the Labor Day occasion, in which he said: “Labor Day comes this year as the prospects for work are blocked before citizens who seek immigration, even if illegal, on dilapidated boats.""The Eid comes while the homeland is immersed in its multiple economic, social and monetary crises," he added. "Despite this, we have nothing but to cling to the authenticity of the Lebanese and their ability to overcome all adversities and difficulties as they have done previously, and therefore we say to the laborers, Happy Eid, and we hope that the next Eid will surely bring goodness for the whole country," Mortada concluded.

Al-Shami partakes in World Bank, International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, says 'failure to implement reforms will have...
NNA/May 01/2022
Deputy Prime Minister, Saadeh Al-Shami, participated in the spring meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund last week in Washington. In a statement by his media office on Sunday, it indicated that Minister Al-Shami "held extensive meetings with the various departments of the International Monetary Fund directly concerned with the agreement that took place at the staff level between Lebanon and the Fund to complete the discussion on all matters related to this program, including the technical assistance required for Lebanon to carry out the prior commitments and measures agreed upon between both parties." "During the meetings, the stakeholders showed great response and readiness to provide all required assistance at the technical level in order to reach a final agreement between Lebanon and the IMF," the statement added. "The Deputy Prime Minister also held a meeting with the Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, who showed great interest in the Lebanese situation and her willingness to help Lebanon out of its severe crisis," the statement went on, adding that "the Fund Director emphasized that the implementation of reforms in the required time is a very necessary matter, so that the international community can help Lebanon."In this connection, Georgieva tweeted: "I had a good meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister of Lebanon, Saadeh Al-Shami, during which we discussed the economic program that would help Lebanon out of its severe crisis. The timely implementation of the agreed reforms is vital to obtaining much-needed funding from the international community.”
Minister Al-Shami also held meetings with the Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund, Dr. Mahmoud Mohieddine, the Executive Director of the World Bank, Dr. Mirza Hassan, and the Vice President of the World Bank for the Middle East, Farid Belhaj. Talks focused on the issue of the loan allocated to extracting gas from Egypt and the World Bank's program to support the general budget, which is initially associated with the final agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The Deputy Prime Minister also met with officials in the US Treasury and the US State Department to explain the objectives of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund and to request assistance regarding extracting gas from Egypt and the need to give the required guarantee as well as assistance from the international community to bridge the financing gap. In this context, he also held a meeting with the European Union Commissioner for the Middle East to explore the possibility of financial assistance, as well as with the Director of the French Treasury, Emmanuel Moulin, who expressed a serious willingness to help Lebanon mobilize the necessary funding to bridge the financial gap for the next four years. In conclusion of all his encounters, Al-Shami confirmed that he sensed “serious interest from all those he met in helping Lebanon get out of the unprecedented crisis it is experiencing, and that any assistance will be conditional on the initiation of the implementation of the prior procedures agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund and the approval of the Parliament Council on some laws, most importantly the 2022 budget law, the Capital Control Law and the required amendments to the Banking Secrecy Law, as well as the Banking Restructuring Law, which the government seeks to refer to Parliament before the upcoming elections."Al-Shami also stressed that "failing to implement these reforms will have negative repercussions on the current situation, while initiating said reforms will contribute to mitigating the negative repercussions of the economic and financial situation on the people, giving hope for advancement and recovery, alleviating the severity of the deep crisis and opening the doors to a better future."

"Foreign Ministry a den of clientelism & absolute corruption," deems Geagea
NNA/May 01/2022
Lebanese Forces Party Chief, Samir Geagea, stressed that "the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is seeking, by various means, to obstruct the election of expatriates in order to reduce the voting rate by the method of distributing them to polling stations in some countries and delaying the publishing of ballot lists, despite the objection of the Lebanese communities to this and their demand for correction and the adoption of the method applied in 2018.”He denounced the Foreign Ministry's approach in this respect, considering it a "den of clientelism and total corruption." Geagea's words came during an electoral event organized by the Lebanese Forces Party's Jezzine branch, in the presence of members of the "Our Unity in Sidon and Jezzine" vote list and various partisans, supporters and mayors from the region. Touching on the ministerial performance of the "Free Patriotic Movement" and the "Lebanese Forces" cabinet members in some ministries, Geagea said: "There is no ministry that the LF took on without leaving a positive impact through its ministers who acted as real statesmen."
Geagea criticized FPM Chief, MP Gibran Bassil's speeches, considering that the latter "seeks to incite people against each other instead of talking about development and projects," while also indirectly slamming Bassil's alliances "with those he previously blamed for obstructing his efforts and labelled them as corrupt and thugs." Addressing the people of Jezzine, Geagea urged them to "decide between standing still in our place, or even declining more and more, or getting out of this darkness to start saving Lebanon." "Many do not like the Lebanese Forces, and this is their right, but we call on them to vote for the Lebanese Forces and their allies, not out of love for them, but for their own actual interest, the interest of their children and their future, because the LF Party has proven at all stages that it is able to save the country and rescue it from this hell, and it shares this desire with the Lebanese," Geagea underscored.
He stressed that the upcoming parliamentary elections are not ordinary elections, but rather a "fateful stage during which the country can be saved through large parliamentary blocs."

Al-Makari bestows 'Silver Order of Merit' upon late novelist Farshakh: We hope for a better homeland despite all hardships of this stage
NNA/May 01/2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, represented by Minister of Information Ziad Al-Makari, patronized a ceremony honoring the late novelist and media figure George Farshakh, organized by friends of the late following his recent passing in Paris, at the Municipal Theater - Pierre Farshakh Hall, with a crowd of officials, prominent figures and family members attending. In his word of tribute, Minister Al-Makari recalled his years of friendship with the late George Farshakh, as a novelist and person, with the love for the homeland and their Zgharta roots bringing them closer together during their times of residing in the French capital, Paris. "Zgharta brought us together in Paris, and I fully remember our repeated meetings, and how we used to listen with admiration to him talking about Zgharta, Ehden and Lebanon. The relationship developed at that time, and we decided to organize a dinner for the people of Zgharta in Paris, which later became an annual event," he said. "George was like a mayor for Zgharta in Paris...always initialling his writings and texts as if he had written them in two cities: the city of residence, Paris, and the city of the heart, Zgharta," Al-Makari added. He paid tribute to the late's intellect and writings about the history of Lebanon, saying, "George was not a mere historian, nor a journalist, nor a novelist, but he was a visionary." "At a time when we find ourselves at rock bottom, we must return to George's writings to restore hope, for hope is a central theme in his writings," Al-Makari said, quoting one of his excerpts on the subject where he distinguished between false hope and real hope, the hope of real people. "George Farshakh migrated away from the homeland, but he returned today to give us hope. Hope for a better homeland despite all the hardships of the current stage," Al-Makari asserted.He concluded by praying for his soul to rest in peace, adding, "It is a great honor for me to bestow upon George Farshakh, in the name of the Lebanese Republic, the Lebanese Silver Medal of Merit, and present it to his honorable family."During the ceremony, a printed biography of the late novelist including his works and writings was distributed to the attendees.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 01-02/2022
19th century Iraq church holds first Mass since Daesh defeat
AFP/May 02, 2022
MOSUL, Fallujah: Dozens of faithful celebrated Mass on Saturday at a Mosul church in northern Iraq for the first time since it was restored after its ransacking by Daesh terrorists. Daesh swept into Mosul and proclaimed it their “capital” in 2014, in an onslaught that forced hundreds of thousands of Christians in the northern Nineveh province to flee, some to Iraq’s nearby Kurdistan region. The Iraqi army drove out the jihadists three years later after months of grueling street fighting that devastated the city. The Mar Tuma Syriac Catholic church, which dates back to the 19th century, was used by the jihadists as a prison or a court. Restoration work is ongoing and its marble floor has been dismantled to be completely redone. In September 2021, a new bell was inaugurated at the church during a ceremony attended by dozens of worshippers. The 285-kg bell cast in Lebanon rang out on Saturday to cries of joy before the Mass got underway. The service began with worshippers who packed the church chanting hymns as an organist played. “This is the most beautiful church in Iraq,” said Father Pios Affas, 82, the delighted parish priest. Affas also paid tribute to those behind the restoration work which, he said, had “brought the church back to its past glory, like the way it was 160 years ago.” Inside the church, ochre and grey marble shone in the nave, where the altar and colonnaded arches were restored and new stained glass installed. Jihadists had destroyed all Christian symbols, including the holy cross, and parts of the church were damaged by fire and shelling. Artisans worked diligently to “clean the scorched marble” and restore it, Fraternity in Iraq, a French NGO that aids religious minorities, which helped fund the restoration work said earlier this year. Outbuildings and rooms on the first floor, where windows have been broken and Daesh graffiti can be seen, are still due to be repaired. Mosul and the surrounding plains of Nineveh were once home to one of the region’s oldest Christian communities. Iraq’s Christian population has shrunk to fewer than 400,000 from around 1.5 million before the US-led invasion of 2003 that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. Nineveh province was left in ruins after three years of jihadist occupation which ended in 2017 when Iraqi forces backed by US-led coalition airstrikes pushed them out. Several monasteries and churches are being renovated but reconstruction is slow, and the Christian population that has fled has not returned. Meanwhile, two rockets targeting a base in western Iraq hosting US-led coalition troops on Saturday crashed near the complex without causing casualties or damage, security sources said. “Two rockets fell outside the Iraqi base of Ain Al-Asad,” a security forces statement said, adding there were no “losses.” The base, controlled by Iraq, is located in the desert in the western Anbar province and hosts foreign troops from the coalition fighting the Daesh group. A coalition official said there was “no impact on the installation reported” and “no coalition personnel injuries reported.” A previously unknown group calling itself “International Resistance” claimed the attack on a pro-Iran channel of messaging app Telegram. Rockets and drones frequently target the Ain Al-Asad base.

Twenty civilians evacuated from besieged Mariupol plant
Agence France Presse/May 01/2022
At least 20 civilians including several children were able to leave a badly battered steel plant in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol on Saturday in what could be the start of a long-awaited, larger evacuation of the last holdout in the Russian-held city. Earlier efforts at evacuations from the Azovstal steel plant -- where local fighters say they and hundreds of civilians are still sheltering in brutal conditions -- had been futile. Ukrainian fighters of the Azov regiment, which has been defending the site, said 20 civilians had left, possibly for the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, about 225 kilometers (140 miles) to the northwest. Russia's Tass news agency carried a similar report, though putting the number of evacuees at 25. A United Nations-planned evacuation had been planned, though it was unclear whether Saturday's evacuation was U.N.-led and whether further evacuations were imminent. There were no immediate details on the condition of the evacuees. Ukraine's President Zelensky said in a video Saturday evening said Kyiv was "doing everything to ensure that the evacuation mission from Mariupol is carried out".Fresh satellite imagery by private US firm Maxar taken on Friday showed a devastated Mariupol, with almost all of Azovstal destroyed. The apparent ceasefire in Mariupol took place as Russian attacks continued unabated across Ukraine, most heavily in the fiercely disputed eastern regions, but with attacks as far west as Odessa, on the Black Sea coast. Odessa's regional governor Maxim Marchenko said a Russian missile strike had destroyed the airport runway, as Moscow continues targeting infrastructure and supply lines deep in the west of the country. There were no victims from the airport strike near the historic city of one million people. Near Bucha, the town near Kyiv that has become synonymous with allegations of Russian war crimes, Ukrainian police on Saturday reported finding three bodies shot in the head with their hands tied. The three bodies found in a pit were "brutally killed" by Russian soldiers -- each shot in the head, the police said in a statement. "The victims' hands were tied, cloths were covering their eyes and some were gagged. There are traces of torture on the corpses," it said.
- Clearing debris -
In Mariupol, the Azov regiment said Saturday that it had been clearing the debris of overnight shelling by Russia to rescue trapped civilians. From the city's badly damaged port zone, AFP on Friday heard heavy shelling coming from Azovstal during a media trip organized by the Russian army, with explosions only seconds apart. "Twenty civilians, women and children... have been transferred to a suitable place and we hope that they will be evacuated to Zaporizhzhia, on territory controlled by Ukraine," said Sviatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of the Azov regiment. But Denis Pushilin, leader of the breakaway eastern region of Donetsk, accused Ukrainian forces of "acting like outright terrorists" and holding civilians hostage in the steel plant. On the front line in the east, Russian troops have advanced slowly but steadily in some areas -- helped by massive use of artillery -- but Ukrainian forces have also recaptured some territory in recent days, particularly around the city of Kharkiv. One of the areas taken back from Russian control was the village of Ruska Lozova, which evacuees said had been occupied for two months. "It was two months of terrible fear. Nothing else, a terrible and relentless fear," Natalia, a 28-year-old evacuee from Ruska Lozova, told AFP after reaching Kharkiv."We were in the basements without food for two months, we were eating what we had," said Svyatoslav, 40, who did not want to give his full name, his eyes red with fatigue.
Putin's 'depravity' -
Thousands of people have been killed and more than 13 million have been forced to flee their homes since the Russian invasion of its pro-Western neighbor began on February 24, according to the United Nations. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Friday briefly choked with emotion as he described the destruction in Ukraine and accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of "depravity". Ukrainian prosecutors say they have pinpointed more than 8,000 war crimes carried out by Moscow's troops and are investigating 10 Russian soldiers for suspected atrocities in Bucha. Russia has denied any involvement in civilian deaths in Bucha. Moscow officials confirmed on Friday that their forces carried out an air strike on Kyiv a day earlier during a visit by UN chief Antonio Guterres, the first such attack on the capital city in nearly two weeks. A journalist died in the attack.
- 'Russia will not go unpunished' -
Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk meanwhile reported that 14 Ukrainians including a pregnant soldier had been freed in the latest prisoner exchange with Russian forces. She did not say how many Russians had been returned. Kyiv has admitted that Russian forces have captured a string of villages in the Donbas region. "Even if there has been some advance by Russian troops on the ground, it is not very fast," Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin told AFP. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the "special military operation... is proceeding strictly according to plan", China's official Xinhua news agency reported. Russia has warned Western countries against sending more military aid. "If the US and NATO are really interested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, then first of all, they should wake up and stop supplying the Kyiv regime with arms and ammunition," Lavrov said. But more Western armaments are due to arrive in Ukraine, with US President Joe Biden on Thursday seeking billions of dollars from Congress to boost supplies. And a top Ukrainian military official Saturday said he had held talks with chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley on the "difficult situation in the east of our country, particularly in the Izium and Sieverodonetsk areas, where the enemy has concentrated its maximum efforts and the most combat-ready groups." "Despite the complexity of the situation, we provide defense, keep occupied boundaries and positions," general Valery Zaluzhny said on Facebook.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday that his country would also "intensify" military and humanitarian support.
And Ukraine's President Zelensky said he spoke with Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson "on defense support for Ukraine and other efforts necessary to end the war". "I informed Boris about the current situation on the battlefield in the areas of active clashes and in detail about the situation in our east, in Mariupol, in the south of the country," he said. "All the leaders of the free world know what Russia has done to Mariupol. And Russia will not go unpunished for this." Zelensky was also reported Saturday to have met with a spokesman for Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is trying to pave the way for an Istanbul summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky. And with Sweden pondering a bid for NATO membership, defense officials there said Saturday that a Russian reconnaissance plane had briefly violated the northern country's airspace a day earlier.

Ukraine FM asks China to be security guarantor

Agence France Presse
/May 01/2022
Ukraine's foreign minister has asked China to provide security guarantees for Kyiv, in a lengthy interview containing some of the most direct criticisms of Moscow recently published by Beijing's state media. Western powers and Ukraine have repeatedly urged China to condemn Russia's invasion as it tries to maintain a supposedly neutral stance, with the United States threatening consequences if Beijing provides military or economic support to Moscow. "Ukraine is currently studying the possibility of acquiring security guarantees from permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, including China, and other major powers," Dmytro Kuleba was quoted as saying by official news agency Xinhua Saturday. "We propose that China becomes one of the guarantors of Ukraine's security, this is a sign of our respect and trust in the People's Republic of China."
China in 2013 pledged to provide Ukraine with "security guarantees" if it is ever invaded or threatened with nuclear attack, but appeared evasive on the same issue in the wake of Russia's attack. In response to a question about the guarantee last month, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman suggested that such "security assurances have clear limitations on the content and are triggered under specific conditions", in reference to a similar United Nations security resolution on non-nuclear states. Chinese officials have often blamed US-led NATO for provoking Moscow's invasion and accused Western countries of escalating the conflict by sending weapons to Ukraine. Beijing's state media has also repeatedly amplified Russian propaganda surrounding the war and largely avoided attributing Ukrainian civilian deaths to Moscow's military aggression.
Kuleba has only had two calls with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi since the invasion began on February 24, while Wang met Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in China last month and reiterated that cooperation between the two countries has "no limits".
In the Xinhua interview, Kuleba also accused Russia of having "compromised" Beijing's signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, warning that the consequences of the global food security crisis would threaten China's economy. "We also believe that this war is not in China's interests," he was quoted as saying. His remarks directly referred to Russia's actions as an "invasion" -- a term that Chinese officials and state media have sought to avoid. "The situation is not escalating because of Ukraine, we are exercising our right to defend ourselves," he said, in an apparent rebuff of Chinese warnings against other states providing arms to Kyiv. Chinese President Xi Jinping has not yet spoken publicly with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. He called Russian President Vladimir Putin the day after the February 24 invasion.

Pelosi backs Zelensky in 'fight for freedom' on Kyiv visit
Agence France Presse/May 01/2022
U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi voiced support for Ukraine's "fight for freedom" at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky on a visit to Kyiv, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said on Sunday. "We believe that we are visiting you to say thank you for your fight for freedom... Our commitment is to be there for you until the fight is done," Pelosi told Zelensky, according to a video from the Ukrainian presidency. Zelensky tweeted: "Thank you to the United States for helping protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state." "The U.S. is leading strong support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression," he said. The trip by a Congressional delegation had not been previously announced. "Our delegation proudly delivered the message that additional American support is on the way, as we work to transform President Biden’s strong funding request into a legislative package," Pelosi's office said in a statement. U.S. President Joe Biden last week proposed a huge $33-billion (31-billion euro) package for arming and supporting Ukraine. Biden also outlined proposed new laws to allow using luxury assets stripped from Russian oligarchs to compensate Ukraine for the destruction wreaked by the invading Russians. "When we return to the United States, we will do so further informed, deeply inspired and ready to do what is needed to help the Ukrainian people as they defend democracy for their nation and for the world," Pelosi's statement continued. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv last month

Former Saudi intelligence chief calls for sanctioning Israel, criticizes Western double standards on Russia
Arab News/May 01, 2022
JEDDAH: Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki Al-Faisal called for sanctions on Israel while criticizing Western states for their double standards when it comes to Russian aggression on Ukraine and not with similar aggression against Palestine. When asked whether or not the international community should be imposing sanctions on Israel as it is with Russia, Prince Turki responded “absolutely,” adding “I don’t see what the difference is there between the two. “Aggression is aggression, whether it is committed by Russia or by Israel, and yet there has been no such effort to sanction Israel,” he said on the debut episode of the latest season of “Frankly Speaking” with new host Katie Jensen. Despite six Arab states normalizing ties with Israel, there has been no change in its policies towards Palestinians, despite what was promised in speeches and declarations. “There is no sign whatsoever that appeasing Israel is going to change their attitude,” the prince said. “The Palestinian people are still occupied, they are still being imprisoned willy-nilly by the Israeli government. Attacks and assassinations of Palestinian individuals take place almost on a daily basis. “The stealing of Palestinian land by Israel continues despite the assurances that Israel gave to the signatories of the peace (accord) between the UAE and Israel,” he said. Globally, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has exposed an international hypocrisy with regards to refugees as well as sanctions, the former ambassador to the US explained. “The way that sanctions have been placed on Russia for invading Ukraine, but no sanctions for example have been placed on Israel when it invaded Arab countries a few years back, and those are the double standards and the injustices I think that have been taking place over the years,” he explained. Since the conflict began, UN data shows that more than 11 million people are believed to have been both internally displaced or have fled the country. As the Ukrainian refugee crisis unfolded, media outlets including CBS, the BBC, NBC News and even Al Jazeera English have laid bare a double standard in reporting when compared to Arab and Afghan refugee movements.
“But this isn’t a place, with all due respect, like Iraq or Afghanistan that has seen conflict raging for decades. This is a relatively civilized, relatively European city where you wouldn’t expect that hope that it's going to happen,” CBS senior foreign correspondent Charlie D’Agata said.
Al Jazeera English’s presenter also faced backlash online for stating that: “What is compelling about these people is how they’re dressed; these are prosperous, middle class people who obviously are not refugees.”And it goes on, with NBC News correspondent Kelly Cobiella saying: “These are Christians, they are white, they’re very similar to the people that live in Poland.”All this, and more, has flung the conflict into a broader debate on international double standards and hypocrisy when dealing with different regions. The former intelligence chief also weighed in on the current relationship between the US and the Gulf, namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which has seen better days. “When you say that Saudi Arabia has not budged on the issue of the oil problems that America is facing, basically America itself is the reason for the state that they’re in because of their energy policy,” he said. “Biden made it a policy of the US government to cut all links to what are called the oil and gas industry and he curtailed the oil production and gas production in the US and, as we know, the US has been in the last few years the biggest producer of these two energy sources,” he said.“We don’t want to be an instrument or a reason for instability in the oil prices as we saw in the past. So that is why the Kingdom and the other OPEC members and the OPEC+ members are sticking to the production quotas that they have assigned themselves.”

Six missiles fall near oil refinery in Iraq’s Irbil — statement
Reuters/May 01, 2022
IRBIL, Iraq: Six missiles landed near an oil refinery in Iraq’s northern city of Irbil on Sunday, Kurdistan anti-terrorism authorities said in a statement. The missiles were launched from Nineveh province and fell near the KAR refinery, the authorities said without reporting any casualties or damage.
Three missiles also fell near the refinery on April 6, without causing any casualties. Sources in the Kurdistan Regional Government told Reuters then that the refinery is owned by Iraqi Kurdish businessman Baz Karim Barzanji, the CEO of major domestic energy company the KAR Group.
In March, Iran attacked Irbil with a dozen ballistic missiles in an unprecedented assault on the capital of the autonomous Iraqi Kurdish region that appeared to target the United States and its allies. Only one person was hurt in that attack.

Suspected IS militants blow up gas pipeline in Egypt's Sinai
Associated Press/May 01/2022
Suspected Islamic State militants have blown up a natural gas pipeline in Egypt's restive northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, causing a fire but no casualties, security officials said. The officials said the suspected militants planted explosives under a pipeline in the town of Bir al-Abd. The expulsion sent thick flames of fire shooting into the sky, and authorities stopped the flow of gas to extinguish the fire, according to eyewitnesses. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak to media and the eyewitnesses asked not to be named for fear of reprisal. No group immediately claimed the attack which caused no human casualties. The Islamic State group affiliate, which is centered in Northern Sinai, however, has claimed previous attacks targeted gas pipelines between Egypt and both Jordan and Israel. Egypt is battling an Islamic State-led insurgency in the Sinai that intensified after the military overthrew an elected but divisive Islamist president in 2013. The militants have carried out scores of attacks, mainly targeting security forces and Christians.Saturday's attack comes as the militants suffered heavy losses in recent months with Egyptian security forces, aided by armed tribesmen, who intensified their efforts to eliminate the group.

Turkish police hold dozens in May Day demonstrations
AP/May 02, 2022
Protesters detained across Istanbul for ‘attempting to hold illegal rallies’
ISTANBUL: Turkish riot police detained dozens of protesters trying to reach Istanbul’s main Taksim Square for May Day demonstrations against economic hardship caused by raging inflation. The Istanbul governor’s office had allowed May Day celebrations to be held in another district and deemed gatherings in all other locations as unauthorised and illegal. A Reuters journalist saw riot police brawling with and handcuffing protesters, images of which were shown on television by domestic broadcasters. Police also detained 30 people in central Besiktas and 22 others in Sisli districts, the Demiroren News Agency reported. A statement from the Istanbul governor’s office on Sunday said that 164 protesters had been detained across the city for “attempting to hold illegal demonstrations.”Marches led by workers and unions are held on May 1 every year as part of International Labor Day celebrations in many countries. Turkey’s annual inflation rate is expected to rise to 68 percent in April, driven higher by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising commodity prices, receding only slightly by the end of the year, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The soaring inflation and the economic hardship it causes were cited in May Day statements from several groups. “Our main theme this year had to be cost of living,” the head of the Confederation of Turkish Labor Unions (Turk-Is), Ergun Atalay, said as he placed a wreath in Taksim Square and demanded that minimum wages be adjusted monthly to reflect rising prices. “Inflation is announced at the beginning of each month. The inflation rate should be added to wages every month,” he said. Citizens and trade unions in cities around Europe were taking to the streets for May Day marches, and to put out protest messages to their governments, notably in France where the holiday to honor workers was being used as a rallying cry against newly reelected President Emmanuel Macron. May Day is a time of high emotion for participants and their causes, with police on the ready. In Italy, after a two-year pandemic lull, an outdoor mega-concert was set for Rome with rallies and protests in cities across the country. Besides work, peace was an underlying theme with calls for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Italy’s three main labor unions were focusing their main rally in the hilltop town of Assisi, a frequent destination for peace protests. This year’s slogan is “Working for peace.”“It’s a May Day of social and civil commitment for peace and labor,” said the head of Italy’s CISL union, Daniela Fumarola. Other protests were planned far and wide in Europe, including in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, where students and others planned to rally in support of Ukraine as Communists, anarchists and anti-EU groups held their own gatherings.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 01-02/2022
Time for action not words if Iran really wants to be a good neighbor
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 01/2022
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been claiming that one of his administration’s priorities is to improve ties with Tehran’s neighbors, including the Gulf states. But such statements are only collections of words unless they are followed by tangible actions.
Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, who is a high-ranking military adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a former chief commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has also suggested that Tehran’s foreign policy has entered a new period that is anchored in improving relationships with other countries in the region. In addition, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh last week said: “Iran and Saudi Arabia, as two important countries in the region and the Muslim world, can enter a new chapter of interaction and cooperation to achieve regional peace, stability and development by adopting constructive and dialogue-based approaches.”
But, as Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan pointed out last year, the Kingdom will judge the Raisi administration by “the reality on the ground.”
Unfortunately, former Iranian presidents, including the so-called moderate Hassan Rouhani, also made similar promises to improve ties with the Gulf states. But ties between the Iranian regime and the Gulf states deteriorated under Rouhani’s administration thanks to Tehran’s military adventurism and destructive policies in the region.
Furthermore, Raisi’s administration has not yet made any changes to Iran’s regional policies in spite of his claims that the country wants to improve ties with other nations in the region.
When it comes to Yemen, the IRGC is still a key supporter and sponsor of the Houthis and it has been stepping up its weapons supply to the group. The sophisticated drones and missiles that the Houthis use to target Saudi Arabia and the UAE most likely come from Iran, which has recognized the terror group as the official government of Yemen. The Iranian government continues to smuggle illicit weapons and technology into Yemen and these weapons are being deployed for offensive purposes by the Houthis.
In Syria, the Raisi administration is still using the Arab nation as a proxy battleground to score victories against Israel and to expand the Iranian regime’s military stranglehold in the Levant. By exploiting the instability in Syria, Iran’s IRGC and Quds Force now enjoy a military presence close to the Israeli border. The IRGC has also established permanent military bases in Syria and has significant control over some of the country’s airports.
Meanwhile, the IRGC under the Raisi administration continues to exploit Iraq as a proxy battleground in order to achieve its revolutionary ideals and hegemonic ambitions. Tehran’s Iraqi militias are also exploiting religion, using sectarianism as a tool to gain power and further Iran’s parochial, religious and political ambitions. The Iranian regime’s militias are also known for ratcheting up the conflict by engaging in various crimes against civilians.
Raisi has not yet made any changes to Iran’s regional policies in spite of his claims that the country wants to improve ties.
And when it comes to the Iranian regime’s nuclear program, Raisi has not shown any signs that his government is going to halt or slow the advancement of its nuclear activities, which have been a source of grave concern for other countries in the region. While Iran’s nuclear breakout time (the amount of time required to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon) was estimated to be about a year under the Rouhani administration, it has shortened to just a few weeks since Raisi took office last year.
If the president genuinely wants to improve relations with Iran’s neighbors, he needs to address their concerns and this requires a major shift in Iran’s foreign policy. It is important to point out that improved relationships between Iran and its neighbors could have a significant impact on the region’s geopolitical, economic and security landscapes. If the Iranian government prioritized its relationships with Arab nations based on mutual respect and economic and geopolitical interests, rather than ideological ones, and if the theocratic establishment stopped supporting, arming and financing Shiite militia groups and proxies across the region, it would bring significant benefits to Tehran as well as the region.
In a nutshell, the Iranian regime must move beyond words by fundamentally shifting its regional policies if it truly wants to improve its relations with the Gulf states and other neighboring countries.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Muslim Brotherhood’s influence in US should be confronted and defeated
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/May 01/2022
After its miserable failure in the Middle East and the beginning of the end in Turkey as Ankara seeks to mend its ties with Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has begun to cut its losses and turn to the West, taking advantage of its freedom of religion and human rights laws.
In the US, several active Islamist organizations would be willing to welcome Brotherhood members with open arms. Most of these entities promote Islamism, an authoritarian concept that seeks to impose controversial laws in Western democracies. Such doctrines are widely rejected by America’s vast majority, including Muslims. However, that has not stopped US politicians from participating in events organized by Islamist organizations.
The Muslim American Society, like several other such groups, knows how the political game should be played in the Western world. Slogans of combating racism, anti-discrimination and religious freedom get them closer to liberal politicians, officials, decision-makers and progressive voters.
At a recent Ramadan event in Minnesota, two of the keynote speakers were well-known Islamists. One was the imam of Dar Al-Farooq Islamic Center, Abdirahman Kariye, a son of refugees who came to the US from Somalia and who studied under senior Islamist scholars from Egypt and Somalia. “Dar Al-Farooq mosque has been a conduit for terrorism recruitment, with at least six congregants leaving or attempting to join (Daesh) and Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia,” said Benjamin Baird, deputy director of the Middle East Forum’s Islamism in Politics project.
The other controversial speaker was Asad Zaman, who is executive director and imam of the Muslim American Society of Minnesota. In March, when a bill was presented by two Democratic members of the Minnesota House of Representatives to form a new “task force on the consequences of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism,” it proposed including anti-Semitic Islamist organizations as members, with Zaman one of the nominees. “Zaman is not shy about his views on Jews and Islamism. His Facebook account is replete with anti-Semitism, apologism for Hamas, and support for convicted war criminals,” wrote Sam Westrop, director of Islamist Watch. In one of his Facebook posts, the future member of the proposed task force on the consequences of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism linked to a neo-Nazi Holocaust denial website, which promotes viciously anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
Several political Islam organizations have close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a dangerous group that is designated as a terrorist organization in several countries in the Middle East, including Egypt, where it was founded by Hassan Al-Banna in 1928. The Muslim American Society of Minnesota’s Muslim Brotherhood pedigree is simply undeniable, and here is why and how.
In 2004, the Chicago Tribune newspaper proved that the American chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood operated under the name of the Muslim American Society, which was incorporated in Illinois in 1993 after a contentious debate among Brotherhood members. The incorporation papers showed that the director of the society until 1994 was a prominent leader of the US Muslim Brotherhood named Ahmed Elkadi, an Egyptian-born surgeon who moved to America in 1967.
But why is it alarming? In “Message of the Teachings,” Al-Banna flatly states that violence is an acceptable means for spreading Islamic ideology: “Always intend to… desire martyrdom. Prepare for it as much as you can.” In 2005, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation of Defense of Democracies revealed that the Muslim American Society’s adjunct members must read Sayyid Qutb’s “Milestones,” which refutes claims that so-called jihad encompasses only defensive warfare. He added that the society’s curriculum advocates the promotion of Islam through violence.
Although the society portrays itself as an independent American organization with no affiliation to the Brotherhood, a statement on its website describes the terrorist group as a “grassroots Islamic movement for reform and revival.” The statement stresses that most of Al-Banna’s writings could be categorized as “foundational thought (e.g., balanced understanding of Islam, societal reform, peaceful change, etc.).” The Muslim American Society sought to distance itself from part of what he wrote, claiming that it does not apply to Muslims in America. However, the Islamist organization claimed that it would continue to include Al-Banna’s “applicable” writings in its “curricula, which aid our efforts to move people to strive for God-consciousness, liberty, justice and contribute to a virtuous and just American society.”
American politicians do not comprehend that the targets of Islamist activism are secular Muslims who stand against the bigotry and threats of political Islamism. For years, this community has been canceled, fought and accused of being Islamophobic and anti-Arab by Islamist groups and their politicians.
There is no ready solution to the dilemma of political Islamism in the US as long as we are afraid to call things by their correct names.
In a conversation with my friend, Sarah Idan, a former Miss Universe Iraq and the founder of Humanity Forward, an interfaith nongovernmental organization, she reiterated that groups like the Muslim American Society do not represent her as a moderate Muslim. The Iraqi-American activist expressed concerns about the organization’s affiliation with radical groups.
“Islamists’ interest in funding and endorsing anti-Semitic lawmakers like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib demonstrates their goal (political Islam), the same issue that caused us to flee to the West. If Americans understood the history and complications of the Middle East, they would have been as alert and concerned as we are, witnessing these groups adopting the same strategy they used to destroy our homelands and communities,” Idan stressed. None of these organizations or Islamist lawmakers represent thousands of American Muslims like myself and Idan. However, there is no ready solution to the dilemma of political Islamism in the US as long as we are afraid to call things by their correct names. Led by the Muslim Brotherhood, these organizations bully anyone who stands against the Islamist ideology and manipulate our system and government using the magical term “Islamophobia.” We ought to remember that they are proud of being anti-Semitic and anti-American and that they sympathize with radical groups, and act accordingly.
*Dalia Al-Aqidi is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy. Twitter: @DaliaAlAqidi

Suicide is a risk for college students worldwide
Tala Jarjour/Arab News/May 01/2022
Parents and educators have good reason to consider every age in a child’s developmental process to be a crucial step on their journey toward adulthood. And while specialists may argue about whether one stage is more crucial than others, the fact that the final teenage years and early 20s can be a sensitive time is little disputed. College is where many life-forming activities take place; the same is true for decisions, friendships and, at times, romantic relationships. For most individuals who go to university, 18 to 22, or the college age years, are not only informative in the education and professional training opportunities they usually offer, they are also formative. Early adulthood can shape the kind of adult each person grows into — at least for a good part of their future life. It is a stressful transition.
Parents, educators and a fast-growing number of university and college administrative staff work together to put the safety and health of students at the top of their priorities. In a previous column, I mentioned the lengths to which universities have been keen to go in order to protect their diverse student population from the coronavirus pandemic and the health risks infection presents, sometimes making serious sacrifices in other educational priorities such as social exposure and cultural exchange. But unbeknownst to these keen observers, a hidden risk to students’ lives lurks in dark corners of their tightly monitored campuses. The new risk is suicide, and college health professionals are crying for help.
According to a number of published academic studies on mental health, suicide is the second-leading cause of death among university students in the US. In 2001, of the college students who were polled for a study published by the American Psychological Association, 52 percent reported experiencing depression and 9 percent declared that they had contemplated suicide during their college years.
While not all campuses make such information public, individual institutions report high numbers. The Counseling and Psychological Services of the University of Michigan offers on its website facts and statistics anyone concerned with the health of college-age students should pay attention to. At the time of writing these lines, it stated that, of the university’s students who have used the service, 38 percent “have thought about or considered suicide.”
In other parts of the world, the story may be different but its moral remains the same. In England and Wales, according to one interpretation of nationwide statistics, 1,330 students die by suicide every year. As is the case in the US, individual stories make it, painfully, to the media and become the subject of ethical and legal debates. Whether parents object to the mental health care their late young child had received, or whether they express appreciation for the way in which a difficult story was handled by university and health services staff, they all share one thing.
Parents who speak to the press do so in order to prevent such tragedies from happening again. The problem, as the bereaved parent often laments, is the shame and silent suffering they wish their child had not endured.
Despite mental health making strides in becoming a regular subject in public debates, suicide remains a taboo.
Despite mental health making strides in becoming a regular subject in public debates, suicide remains a taboo.
In the Arab world and much of the Middle East, where mental health is yet to be acknowledged as an inherent part of healthcare for all individuals and societies, many who suffer do not have the ability to inform a personal confidant, let alone have the luxury of consulting a mental health professional. They fear shame. In some institutions of higher education in the region, staff members entrusted with student health, where they exist, may not have adequate training to address the potential risk of suicide. For these and other reasons, suicide can be the first sign of trouble anyone notices.
Suicide among university students is an alarming reality, and one that is yet to receive the attention it necessitates. But there is good news. Of the many worries a college student may encounter, this particular threat is preventable. Yet, for suicide prevention to be possible and its risk to be minimized, experts assert, a key strategy is to identify individuals who are disposed to suicidal ideation and action. This begins with equipping university staff with the right expertise to encourage students whose mental health is taking a toll to seek help from specialists. Then they must make sure students find that help available, and that it is adequate when they do.
*Tala Jarjour is the author of “Sense and Sadness: Syriac Chant in Aleppo.” She is a visiting research fellow at King’s College London and associate fellow at the Yale College.

Macron must unite France or risk emboldening nationalists

Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/May 01/2022
France is not a racist nation; it is an angry one. Last week’s election was pitted as a struggle between liberalism and the risk of a major Western country falling to the extreme right. Those congratulating Emmanuel Macron for his defeat of Marine Le Pen and thereby saving France from fascism oversimplify the very complicated political context in the country.
The far-right candidate won a staggering 41.5 percent of the vote in the second round, with a great many more abstaining from voting altogether. French Muslims and others from an immigrant background were left ruffled as parties on both sides sought to blame them for the country’s problems. The coming five years will feel very long indeed for Macron should he attempt to govern from above, removed from the day-to-day issues of French citizens. Without a significant shift in how the country is run, his victory as the only plausible candidate this time around will only embolden nationalists next time.
Disgruntled voters, unhappy with the president and unimpressed with Le Pen, surprised many as they voted in significant numbers for socialist veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round. With Le Pen having successfully lampooned Macron as the “president of the rich,” it was expected that the low-paid and unemployed would vote for her in the second round. This was not the case, however, and many voted for Macron simply to stop Le Pen.
Melenchon has since taunted Macron as only being president “by default,” declaring him “the most poorly elected” modern president who, despite being the first incumbent to win a second term since 2002, was victorious in an election with the lowest turnout since 1969. Many on the left who voted for Macron will now seek to oppose him in June’s legislative elections, perhaps angling for a popular union of the left that could see Melenchon emerge as prime minister.
How far Macron is willing to accommodate differing political interests will be central to how successful his second term will be. At his victory rally, he was keen to state that “to all our compatriots who abstained from voting, their silence and refusal to choose we must respond to,” and that he hoped to be “president for everyone,” while vowing to act upon the anger and disagreement expressed during the election campaign.
Aside from xenophobia, bread and butter issues have dominated the political discourse and Macron will face opposition to his unfinished ambitious reform program. Having yet to rein in France’s spiraling social spending, he now intends to raise the retirement age to 65, whereas during the election both radical-left and far-left candidates were united on reducing the legal retirement age to 60. Forced to scale back his reforms in the face of the “yellow vest” protesters, Macron knows all too well that his Jupiterian imposition of changes to long-standing policies could be met with violence.
How far the president is willing to accommodate differing political interests will be central to how successful his second term will be.
It is the demographic Le Pen appealed to that Macron will need on board if he is to build a consensus for his reforms. Le Pen successfully widened her party’s appeal beyond the south of the country and into the rustbelts of “forgotten France,” where unemployment and crime rates are high. Whereas more than 80 percent of the capital’s voters supported Macron, elsewhere in the country Paris has become a byword for an elitist, globalized system that is seen to put its own interests above that of disaffected France.
In 2002, Le Pen’s father secured a mere 18 percent of the vote. She has more than doubled that figure, reflecting how support for her policies has grown. Macron may be lauded for defeating the far right, but to govern he now will need to be inclusive. However, this inclusion must not come at the cost of targeting France’s minorities. The fact that whether or not the Muslim headscarf would be banned was a feature in this year’s elections is testimony to how worryingly racist everyday political discourse in France has become.
Within hours of Macron’s win, as his supporters returned home, police opened fire on a car crossing a main bridge in Paris that was driving at them at speed, killing two of the occupants. Such incidents provide a fleeting insight into the decades of disenfranchisement and unemployment that characterize the immigrant experience in France, building resentment toward the state and the xenophobia that was so publicly on display during the campaigning for the election.
There is no doubt that the French election carried a clear warning as to the growth of the far right in the political mainstream. Macron, who spent the second half of his first term clashing with French workers and the Muslim community, will now need to overhaul his governing style or risk further social upheaval and demonstrations. Having blocked Le Pen’s National Rally, Macron will now need to simultaneously moderate his imperious governing style and focus less on the Elysee and more on the serious challenges faced by the angry and despondent elements within French society.
*Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator, and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC. Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid

What To Do About China

Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/May 01/2022
Since about 2018, Chinese officials have been talking about the moon and Mars as sovereign Chinese territory, part of the People's Republic of China. This means that China considers those heavenly bodies to be like the South China Sea. This also means that China will exclude other nations from going to the moon and Mars if they have the capability to do so. We do not have to speculate about that: Chinese officials say this is what they are going to do.
[W]hen Biden says, "Oh, the Chinese just want to compete with us," he is wrong. They do not want to "compete" within the international system. They do not even want to change that system... They want to overthrow it altogether, period.
Is Xi Jinping really that bold... to start another war? ... First, China considers the United States to be its enemy. Second the United States is no longer deterring China. China feels it has a big green light to do whatever it wants.
We Americans don't pay attention to propaganda... After all, these are just words. At this particular time, these words... [suggest] to me that China is laying the justification for a strike on the United States. We keep ignoring what Beijing is saying. We kept ignoring what Osama bin Laden was saying.
We have to remember that the Chinese regime, unlike the Japanese, always warn its adversaries about what it is going to do
The second reason war is coming is that America's deterrence of China is breaking down.
Di's message was that with cash, China can do anything it wants, and that all Americans would take cash. He mentioned two words in this regard: Hunter Biden.
In February, [Biden] had a two‑hour phone call with Xi Jinping. By Biden's own admission, he didn't raise the issue of the origins of COVID‑19 even once. If you are Xi Jinping, after you put down the receiver, your first thought is, "I just got away with killing hundreds of thousands of Americans."
We have news that China is building something like 345 missile silos in three locations: in Gansu, Xinjiang, and in Inner Mongolia. These silos are clearly built to accommodate the DF‑41. The DF‑41 has a range of about 9,300 miles, which means that it can reach any part of the United States. The DF‑41 carries 10 warheads. This means that China could, in about two years..., have a bigger arsenal than ours. ...we have to assume the worst because Chinese leaders and Chinese generals, on occasion, unprovoked, have made threats to nuke American cities.
In July, 2021 China tested a hypersonic glide warhead, which circled the world. This signals China intends to violate the Outer Space Treaty, to which China is a party.
As of today, more than eight million people have died outside China. What happened? No one imposed costs on China.
For at least a half‑decade, maybe a little bit longer, Chinese military researchers have been openly writing about a new type of biological warfare....They talk about a new type of biological warfare of "specific ethnic genetic attacks." In other words, pathogens that will leave the Chinese immune but sicken and kill everybody else, which means that the next disease from China can be a civilization killer.
A lot of military analysts talk about how the first seconds of a war with China are going to be fought in outer space. They are going to blind our satellites, take them down, do all sorts of stuff. Those statements are wrong. The first day of war against the United States occurs about six months earlier, when they release pathogens in the United States. Then we are going to have that day in space. The war starts here, with a pathogen ‑‑ a virus, a microbe, a bug of some kind. That is where it begins.
The One‑China policy is something many people misunderstand. Probably because Beijing uses propaganda to try to fuzzy up the issue.... China has a One‑China principle: that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China, full stop. We have a One‑China policy..., that the status of Taiwan is unresolved.... that the resolution of the status of Taiwan must be with the consent of people on both sides of the Strait.
We need a policy of "strategic clarity," where we tell China that we will defend Taiwan. We also say we will extend a mutual defense treaty to Taiwan if it wants it, and we will put American troops on the island as a tripwire.
We are Americans. We naturally assume that there are solutions, and good solutions, to every problem. After three decades of truly misguided China policy, there are no ... solutions that are "undangerous." ...The current trend of policy is unsustainable. There will be no American republic if we continue to do what we are currently doing and if we continue to allow China to do what it does. I do not think that enforcing a trade deal will start World War III.
China has not met its obligations. As of a few months ago, China had met about 62% of its commitments..... We should be increasing the tariffs that President Trump imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Remember, those tariffs are meant to be a remedy for the theft of US intellectual property. China has continued to steal US IP. As matter of fact, it has gotten worse...
I do not think that we should be trying to foster integration of Wall Street into China's markets.... Do not take it from me, just look at their failure to comply with very simple, easy‑to‑comply-with requirements. It was a mistake.
The best response would be if we hit them with everything at once because China right now is weak. If we were going to pick the number one thing to do, I would think trade.
China now has a debt crisis, so they are not going to invest their way out of this crisis, which means the only way they can save their economy is net exports. We should stop buying their stuff.
China has bought the political establishment in the Solomon Islands, except for one brave man named David Suidani. Recently, somebody got the bright idea of publishing all of the specific payments that Beijing has made to Solomon Islands politicians.... We should be doing this with payments to American politicians, we should be doing this across the board.
What bothers me is that, although their assumptions about China have demonstrably been proven wrong, American policymakers still continue with the same policies. There is, in some people's mind, an unbreakable view that we have to cooperate with China.... This is what people learn in international relations school when they go to Georgetown, and they become totally stupid.
Clearly, Nike and Apple and other companies are now, at this very moment, trying to prevent Congress from enacting toughened rules on the importation of forced‑labor products into our country.
Moreover, the Chinese regime is even more casualty‑averse than we are. Even if Beijing thinks it can take Taiwan by force, it is probably not going to invade because it knows an invasion would be unpopular with most people in China. It is not going to risk hundreds of thousands of casualties that would result from an invasion.
Unfortunately..., we taught the Chinese that they can without cost engage in these dangerous maneuvers of intercepting our planes and our ships. That is the problem: because as we have taught the Chinese to be more aggressive, they have been.
[W]e should have made it clear to the Chinese leadership that they cannot kill Americans without cost. Hundreds of thousands Americans have been killed by a disease that China deliberately spread. From October 2020 to October 2021, more than 105,000 Americans died from fentanyl -- which China has purposefully, as a matter of state and Communist Party policy -- sold to Americans... we have to change course.
I would close China's four remaining consulates. I would also strip the Chinese embassy down to the ambassador and his personal staff. The thousands who are in Washington, DC, they would be out.
I would also raise tariffs to 3,600%, or whatever. This is a good time to do it. We have supply chain disruptions. We are not getting products from China anyway. We can actually start to do this sort of stuff.
I would... just hammer those guys all the time verbally. People may think, "Those are just words." For communists, words are really important, because they are an insecure regime where propaganda is absolutely critical.
I would be going after the Communists on human rights, I would be going after them on occupying the South China Sea, on Taiwan, unrelentingly -- because I would want to show the world that the United States is no longer afraid of China.... State Department people, they are frightened. We need to say to the Chinese regime, like Dulles, "I'm not afraid of you. I'm going after you, and I'm going to win."
Is Xi Jinping really that bold... to start another war? ... First, China considers the United States to be its enemy. Second the United States is no longer deterring China. China feels it has a big green light to do whatever it wants. (Image source: iStock)
All the conditions for history's next great war are in place. Jim Holmes, the Wiley Professor at the Naval War College, actually talks about this period as being 1937.
1937 was the year in which if you were in Europe or America, you could sense the trouble. If you were in Asia in 1937, you would be even more worried, because that year saw Japan's second invasion of China that decade.
No matter where you lived, however, you could not be sure that the worst would happen, that great armies and navies around the world would clash. There was still hope that the situation could be managed. As we now know, the worst did happen. In fact, what happened was worse than what anyone thought at the time.
We are now, thanks to China, back to 1937.
We will begin our discussion in Afghanistan. Beijing has had long‑standing relations with the Afghan Taliban, going back before 9/11, and continuing through that event.
After the US drove the Taliban from power and while it was conducting an insurgency, China was selling the group arms, including anti‑aircraft missiles, that were used to kill American and NATO forces.
China's support for killing Americans has continued to today. In December 2020, Indian Intelligence was instrumental, in Afghanistan, in breaking up a ring of Chinese spies and members of the Haqqani Network. The Trump administration believed that the Chinese portion of that ring was actually paying cash for killing Americans.
What can happen next? We should not be surprised if China gives the Taliban an atomic weapon to be used against an American city. Would they be that vicious?
We have to remember that China purposefully, over the course of decades, proliferated its nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and then helped Pakistan sell that Chinese technology around the world to regimes such as Iran's and North Korea's.
Today, China supports the Taliban. We know this because China has kept open its embassy in Kabul. China is also running interference for the Taliban in the United Nations Security Council. It is urging countries to support that insurgent group with aid. It looks as if the Taliban's main financial backers these days are the Chinese.
Beijing is hoping to cash in on its relationship in Central Asia. Unfortunately, there is a man named Biden, who is helping them.
In early August, Biden issued an executive order setting a goal that by 2030, half of all American vehicles should be electric‑powered. To be electric‑powered, we need rare earth minerals, we need lithium. As many people have said, Afghanistan is the Saudi Arabia of rare earths and lithium.
If Beijing can mine this, it makes the United States even more dependent on China. It certainly helps the Taliban immeasurably.
Unfortunately, Beijing has more than just Afghanistan in mind. The Chinese want to take away our sovereignty, and that of other nations, and rule the world. They actually even want to rule the near parts of the solar system. Yes, that does sound far‑fetched, but, no, I'm not exaggerating. Chinese President Xi Jinping would like to end the current international system.
On July 1, in a landmark speech, in connection with the centennial of China's ruling organization, he said this: "The Communist Party of China and the Chinese people, with their bravery and tenacity, solemnly proclaim to the world that the Chinese people are not only good at taking down the old world, but also good in building a new one."
By that, China's leader means ending the international system, the Westphalian international system. It means he wants to impose China's imperial‑era notions of governance, where Chinese emperors believed they not only had the Mandate of Heaven over tianxia, or all under Heaven, but that Heaven actually compelled the Chinese to rule the entire world.
Xi Jinping has been using tianxia themes for decades, and so have his subordinates, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who in September 2017 wrote an article in Study Times, the Central Party School's influential newspaper.
In that article, Wang Yi wrote that Xi Jinping's thought on diplomacy ‑‑ a "thought" in Communist Party lingo is an important body of ideological work ‑‑ Wang Yi wrote that Xi Jinping's thought on diplomacy made innovations on and transcended the traditional theories of Western international relations of the past 300 years.
Take 2017, subtract 300 years, and you almost get to 1648, which means that Wang Yi, with his time reference, was pointing to the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648, which established the current system of sovereign states.
When Wang Yi writes that Xi Jinping wants to transcend that system, he is really telling us that China's leader does not want sovereign states, or at least no more of them than China. This means that when Biden says, "Oh, the Chinese just want to compete with us," he is wrong. They do not want to "compete" within the international system. They do not even want to change that system so it is more to their liking. They want to overthrow it altogether, period.
China is also revolutionary with regard to the solar system. Since about 2018, Chinese officials have been talking about the moon and Mars as sovereign Chinese territory. In other words, as part of the People's Republic of China. This means that China considers those heavenly bodies to be like the South China Sea: theirs and theirs alone.
This also means that China will exclude other nations from going to the moon and Mars if they have the capability to do so. We do not have to speculate about that: Chinese officials say this is what they are going to do.
Let us return to April 2021. Beijing announced the name of its Mars rover. "We are naming the Mars rover Zhurong," the Chinese said, "because Zhurong was the god of fire in Chinese mythology, " How nice. Yes, Zhurong is the god of fire. What Beijing did not tell us is that Zhurong is also the god of war—and the god of the South China Sea.
Is Xi Jinping really that bold or that desperate to start another war? Two points. First, China considers the United States to be its enemy. The second point is that the United States is no longer deterring China. China feels it has a big green light to do whatever it wants.
On the first point, about our enemy status, we have to go back to May 2019. People's Daily, the most authoritative publication in China, actually carried a piece that declared a "people's war" on the US. This was not just some isolated thought.
On August 29th 2021, People's Daily came out with a landmark piece that accused the United States of committing "barbaric" acts against China. Again, this was during a month of hostile propaganda blasts from China.
On the August 29th, Global Times, which is controlled by People's Daily, came right out and also said that the United States was an enemy or like an enemy.
We Americans don't pay attention to propaganda. The question is, should we be concerned about what China is saying? After all, these are just words.
At this particular time, these words are significant. The strident anti‑Americanism suggests to me that China is laying the justification for a strike on the United States. We keep ignoring what Beijing is saying. We kept ignoring what Osama bin Laden was saying.
We have to remember that the Chinese regime, unlike the Japanese, always warn its adversaries about what it is going to do. Jim Lilley, our great ambassador to Beijing during the Tiananmen Massacre, actually said that China always telegraphs its punches. At this moment, China is telegraphing a punch.
That hostility, unfortunately, is not something we can do very much about. The Chinese Communist regime inherently idealizes struggle, and it demands that others show subservience to it.
The second reason war is coming is that America's deterrence of China is breaking down. That is evident from what the Chinese are saying.
In March of 2021, China sent its top two diplomats, Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, to Anchorage to meet our top officials, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Yang, in chilling words, said the US could no longer talk to China "from a position of strength."
We saw the same theme during the fall of Kabul. China then was saying, "Look, those Americans, they can't deal with the insurgent Taliban. How can they hope to counter us magnificent Chinese?" Global Times actually came out with a piece referring to Americans: "They can't win wars anymore."
We also saw propaganda at that same time directed at Taiwan. Global Times was saying, again, in an editorial, an important signal of official Chinese thinking, "When we decide to invade, Taiwan will fall within hours and the US will not come to help."
It is probably no coincidence that this propaganda came at the time of incursions into Taiwan's air-defense identification zone.
We need to be concerned with more than just the intensity and with the frequency of these flights, however. We have to be concerned that China was sending H‑6K bombers; they are nuclear‑capable.
Something is wrong. Global Times recently came out with an editorial with the title, "Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real."
Beijing is at this moment saying things heard before history's great conflicts. The Chinese regime right now seems to be feeling incredibly arrogant. We heard this on November 28th in 2020, when Di Dongsheng, an academic in Beijing, gave a lecture live-streamed to China.
Di showed the arrogance of the Chinese elite. More importantly, he was showing that the Chinese elite no longer wanted to hide how they felt. Di, for instance, openly stated that China could determine outcomes at the highest levels of the American political system.
Di's message was that with cash, China can do anything it wants, and that all Americans would take cash. He mentioned two words in this regard: Hunter Biden.
Unfortunately, President Joe Biden is reinforcing this notion. China, for instance, has so far killed nearly one million Americans with a disease that it deliberately spread beyond its borders. Yet, what happened? Nothing.
We know that China was able to spread this disease with its close relationship with the World Health Organization. President Trump, in July of 2020, took us out of the WHO. What did Biden do? In his first hours in office, on January 20th, 2021, he put us back into the WHO.
In February, he had a two‑hour phone call with Xi Jinping. By Biden's own admission, he didn't raise the issue of the origins of COVID‑19 even once. If you are Xi Jinping, after you put down the receiver, your first thought is, "I just got away with killing hundreds of thousands of Americans."
Then there's somebody named John Kerry. Our republic is not safe when John Kerry carries a diplomatic passport, as he now does. He is willing to make almost any deal to get China to sign an enhanced climate arrangement.
Kerry gave a revealing interview to David Westin of Bloomberg on September 22, 2021. Westin asked him, "What is the process by which one trades off climate against human rights?" Climate against human rights?
Kerry came back and said, "Well, life is always full of tough choices in the relationship between nations." Tough choices? We Americans need to ask, "What is Kerry willing to give up to get his climate deal?"
Democracies tend to deal with each other in the way that Kerry says. If we are nice to a democracy, that will lead to warm relations; warm relations will lead to deals, long‑standing ties. Kerry thinks that the Chinese communists think that way. Unfortunately, they do not.
We know this because Kerry's successor as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in February 2009, said in public, "I'm not going to press the Chinese on human rights because I've got bigger fish to fry." She then went to Beijing a day after saying that and got no cooperation from the Chinese.
Even worse, just weeks after that, China felt so bold that it attacked an unarmed US Navy reconnaissance vessel in the South China Sea. The attack was so serious that it constituted an act of war. The Chinese simply do not think the way that Kerry believes they do.
All of this, when you put it together, means that the risk of war is much higher than we tend to think. Conflict with today's aggressor is going to be more destructive than it was in the 1930s. We have news that China is building something like 345 missile silos in three locations: in Gansu, Xinjiang, and in Inner Mongolia.
These silos are clearly built to accommodate the DF‑41. The DF‑41 has a range of about 9,300 miles, which means that it can reach any part of the United States. The DF‑41 carries 10 warheads. This means that China could, in about two years, as some experts think, have a bigger arsenal than ours.
China has built decoy silos before. We are not sure they are going to put all 345 missiles into these facilities, but we have to assume the worst because Chinese leaders and Chinese generals, on occasion, unprovoked, have made threats to nuke American cities.
This, of course, calls into question their official no‑first‑use policy, and also a lot of other things. China will not talk to us about arms control. We have to be concerned that China and Russia, which already are coordinating their military activities, would gang up against us with their arsenals.
In July, 2021 China tested a hypersonic glide warhead, which circled the world. This signals China intends to violate the Outer Space Treaty, to which China is a party. It also shows that in hypersonic technology, which was developed by Americans, China is now at least a decade ahead of us in fielding a weapon.
Why is China doing all this now? The country is coming apart at the seems. There is, for instance, a debt crisis. Evergrande and other property developers have started to default. It is more than just a crisis of companies. China is basically now having its 2008.
Even more important than that, they have an economy that is stumbling and a food crisis that is worsening year to year. They know their environment is exhausted. Of course, they also are suffering from a continuing COVID‑19 epidemic.
To make matters worse, all of this is occurring while China is on the edge of the steepest demographic decline in history in the absence of war or disease.
Two Chinese demographers recently stated that China's population will probably halve in 45 years. If you run out those projections, it means that by the end of the century, China will be about a third of its current size, basically about the same number of people as the United States.
These developments are roiling the political system. Xi Jinping is being blamed for these debacles. We know he has a low threshold of risk. Xi now has all the incentive in the world to deflect popular and regime discontent by lashing out.
In 1966, Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic, was sidelined in Beijing. What did he do? He started the Cultural Revolution. He tried to use the Chinese people against his political enemies. That created a decade of chaos.
Xi Jinping is trying to do the same thing with his "common prosperity" program. The difference is that Mao did not have the means to plunge the world into war. Xi, with his shiny new military, clearly does have that ability.
So here is a 1930s scenario to consider. The next time China starts a conflict, whether accidentally or on purpose, we could see that China's friends -- Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan -- either in coordination with China or just taking advantage of the situation, move against their enemies.
That would be Ukraine in the case of Russia, South Korea in the case of North Korea, Israel in the case of Iran, India in the case of Pakistan, and Morocco in the case of Algeria. We could see crises at both ends of the European landmass and in Africa at the same time.
This is how world wars start.
Question: Why do you believe China attacked the world with coronavirus?
Chang: I believe that SARS‑CoV‑2, the pathogen that causes COVID‑19, is not natural. There are, for example, unnatural arrangements of amino acids, like the double‑CGG sequence, that do not occur in nature.
We do not have a hundred percent assurance on where this pathogen came from. We do, however, have a hundred percent assurance on something else: that for about five weeks, maybe even five months, Chinese leaders knew that this disease was highly transmissible, from one human to the next, but they told the world that it was not.
At the same time as they were locking down their own country ‑‑ Xi Jinping by locking down was indicating that he thought this was an effective way of stopping the disease -- he was pressuring other countries not to impose travel restrictions and quarantines on arrivals from China. It was those arrivals from China that turned what should have been an epidemic confined to the central part of China, into a global pandemic. As of today, more than eight million people have died outside China. What happened? No one imposed costs on China.
For at least a half‑decade, maybe a little bit longer, Chinese military researchers have been openly writing about a new type of biological warfare. This was, for instance, in the 2017 edition of "The Science of Military Strategy," the authoritative publication of China's National Defense University.
They talk about a new type of biological warfare of "specific ethnic genetic attacks." In other words, pathogens that will leave the Chinese immune but sicken and kill everybody else, which means that the next disease from China can be a civilization killer.
Remember, Xi Jinping must be thinking, "I just got away with killing eight million people. Why wouldn't I unleash a biological attack on the United States? Look what the virus has done not only to kill Americans but also to divide American society."
A lot of military analysts talk about how the first seconds of a war with China are going to be fought in outer space. They are going to blind our satellites, take them down, do all sorts of stuff. Those statements are wrong.
The first day of war against the United States occurs about six months earlier, when they release pathogens in the United States. Then we are going to have that day in space. The war starts here, with a pathogen ‑‑ a virus, a microbe, a bug of some kind. That is where it begins.
Question: You mentioned 1939. Taiwan is the Poland of today. We get mixed signals: Biden invites the Taiwanese foreign minister to his inauguration, but then we hear Ned Price, his State Department spokesman, say that America will always respect the One‑China policy. Meaning, we're sidelining defending Taiwan?
Chang: The One‑China policy is something many people misunderstand. Probably because Beijing uses propaganda to try to fuzzy up the issue. China has a One‑China principle: that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China, full stop.
We have a One‑China policy, which is different. We recognize Beijing as the legitimate government of China. We also say that the status of Taiwan is unresolved. Then, the third part of our One‑China policy is that the resolution of the status of Taiwan must be with the consent of people on both sides of the Strait. In other words, that is code for peace, a peaceful resolution.
Our policies are defined by the One‑China policy, the Three Communiques, Reagan's Six Assurances, and the Taiwan Relations Act.
Our policy is difficult for someone named Joe Biden to articulate, because he came back from a campaign trip to Michigan, and he was asked by a reporter about Taiwan, and Biden said, "Don't worry about this. We got it covered. I had a phone call with Xi Jinping and he agreed to abide by the Taiwan agreement."
In official US discourse, there is no such thing as a "Taiwan agreement." Some reporter then asked Ned Price what did Biden mean by the Taiwan agreement. Ned Price said, "The Taiwan agreement means the Three Communiques the Six Assurances, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the One‑China policy."
Ned Price could not have been telling the truth because Xi Jinping did not agree to America's position on Taiwan. That is clear. There is complete fuzziness or outright lying in the Biden administration about this.
Biden's policies on Taiwan are not horrible, but they are also not appropriate for this time. decades, we have had this policy of "strategic ambiguity," where we do not tell either side what we would do in the face of imminent conflict. That worked in a benign period. We are no longer in a benign period. We are in one of the most dangerous periods in history.
We need a policy of "strategic clarity," where we tell China that we will defend Taiwan. We also say we will extend a mutual defense treaty to Taiwan if it wants it, and we will put American troops on the island as a tripwire.
Question: You think he is not saying that because he has no intention of actually doing it, so in a way, he is telling the truth?
Chang: The mind of Biden is difficult to understand. We do not know what the administration would do. We have never known, after Allen Dulles, what any administration would do, with regard to Taiwan. We knew what Dulles would have done. We have got to be really concerned because there are voices in the administration that would give Taiwan, and give other parts of the world, to China. It would probably start with John Kerry; that is only a guess.
Question: You mentioned earlier the growing Chinese economic problems. Would you use taking action on the enormous trade deficits we run with China to contribute to that problem?
Chang: Yes, we should absolutely do that. Go back to a day which, in my mind, lives in infamy, which is January 15th, 2020, when President Trump signed the Phase One trade deal, which I think was a mistake. In that Phase One trade deal, it was very easy for China to comply, because there were specific targets that China had to meet in buying US goods and services. This was "managed trade."
China has not met its obligations. As of a few months ago, China had met about 62% of its commitments. That means, they have dishonored this deal in a material and significant way. If nothing else, China has failed to meet its Phase One trade deal commitments.
We should be increasing the tariffs that President Trump imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Remember, those tariffs are meant to be a remedy for the theft of US intellectual property. China has continued to steal US IP. As matter of fact, it has gotten worse: for instance, these Chinese anti‑lawsuit injunctions, which they have started to institute.
We need to do something: China steals somewhere between $300 to $600 billion worth of US intellectual property each year. That is a grievous wound on the US economy, it is a grievous wound on our society in general. We need to do something about it.
Question: As a follow‑up on that, Japan commenced World War II because of the tariffs Roosevelt was strapping on oil imports into Japan, do you think that might well have the same effect on China, where we do begin to impose stiffer tariffs on American imports?
Chang: That is a really important question, to which nobody has an answer. I do not think that China would start a war over tariffs. Let me answer this question in a different way. We are Americans. We naturally assume that there are solutions, and good solutions, to every problem. After three decades of truly misguided China policy, there are no good solutions. There are no solutions that are "undangerous."
Every solution, going forward, carries great risk. The current trend of policy is unsustainable. There will be no American republic if we continue to do what we are currently doing and if we continue to allow China to do what it does.
I do not think that enforcing a trade deal will start World War III. The point is, we have no choice right now. First, I don't think the Chinese were ever going to honor the Phase One agreement . This was not a deal where there were some fuzzy requirements. This deal was very clear: China buys these amounts of agricultural products by such and such date, China buys so many manufactured products by such and such date. This was not rocket science. China purposefully decided not to honor it.
There are also other issues regarding the trade deal do not think that we should be trying to foster integration of Wall Street into China's markets, which is what the Phase One deal also contemplated. Goldman Sachs ran away like a bandit on that. There are lot of objections to it. I do not think we should be trading with China, for a lot of reasons. The Phase One trade deal, in my mind, was a great mistake. Do not take it from me, just look at their failure to comply with very simple, easy‑to‑comply-with requirements. It was a mistake.
Question: Concerning cybersecurity, as we saw in the recent departure of a Pentagon official, ringing the alarm on how we are completely vulnerable to China's cyberattacks. From your perspective, what would an attack look like on China that would hurt them? What particular institutions would be the most vulnerable? Is it exposing their secrets? Is it something on their financial system? Is it something on their medical system or critical infrastructure? What does the best way look like to damage them?
Also, regarding what you mentioned about Afghanistan, we know that China has been making inroads into Pakistan as a check on American hegemony in relationships with India and Afghanistan.
Now that the Afghanistan domino is down, what do you see in the future for Pakistan's nuclear capability, in conjunction with Chinese backing, to move ever further westward towards Afghanistan, and endangering Middle East security?
Chang: Right now, India has been disheartened by what happened, because India was one of the main backers of the Afghan government. What we did in New Delhi was delegitimize our friends, so that now the pro‑Russian, the pro‑Chinese elements in the Indian national security establishment are basically setting the tone. This is terrible.
What has happened, though, in Pakistan itself, is not an unmitigated disaster for us, because China has suffered blowback there. There is an Afghan Taliban, and there is a Pakistani Taliban. They have diametrically‑opposed policies on China. The Afghan Taliban is an ally of China; the Pakistani Taliban kill Chinese.
They do that because they want to destabilize Pakistan's capital, Islamabad. Beijing supports Islamabad. The calculation on part of the Pakistani Taliban is, "We kill Chinese, we destabilize Islamabad, we then get to set up the caliphate in Pakistan." What has happened is, with this incredible success of the Afghan Taliban, that the Pakistani Taliban has been re‑energized -- not good news for China.
China has something called the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of their Belt and Road Initiative. Ultimately that is going to be something like $62 billion of investment into Pakistani roads, airports, electric power plants, utilities, all the rest of it.
I am very happy that China is in Pakistan, because they are now dealing with a situation that they have no solutions to. It's like Winston Churchill on Italy, "It's now your turn."
We should never have had good relations with Pakistan. That was always a short‑term compromise that, even in the short term, undermined American interests. The point is that China is now having troubles in Pakistan because of their success in Afghanistan.
Pakistan is important to China for a number of reasons. One of them is, they want it as an outlet to the Indian Ocean that bypasses the Malacca Strait -- a choke point that the US Navy ‑‑ in their view ‑‑ could easily close off, which is correct.
They want to bypass that, but their port in Gwadar is a failure in many respects. Gwadar is in Pakistan's Baluchistan. The Baluchs are one of the most oppressed minorities on earth. They have now taken to violence against the Chinese, and they have been effective. Pakistan is a failure for China.
The best response would be if we hit them with everything at once because China right now is weak. If we were going to pick the number one thing to do, I would think trade.
Trade is really what they need right now. Their economy is stalling. There are three parts to the Chinese economy, as there are to all economies: consumption, investment, and net exports. Their consumption right now is extremely weak from indicators that we have. The question is can they invest?
China now has a debt crisis, so they are not going to invest their way out of this crisis, which means the only way they can save their economy is net exports. We should stop buying their stuff.
We have extraordinary supply chain disruptions right now. It should be pretty easy for us to make the case that we must become self‑sufficient on a number of items. Hit them on trade. Hit them on investment, publicize the bank account details of Chinese leaders. All these things that we do, we do it all at the same time. We can maybe get rid of these guys.
Question: In the Solomon Islands, they published China's under-the-table payments to political figures. Should we do the same thing with China's leaders?
Chang: Yes. There is now a contest for the Solomon Islands, which includes Guadalcanal. China has bought the political establishment in the Solomon Islands, except for one brave man named David Suidani. Recently, somebody got the bright idea of publishing all of the specific payments that Beijing has made to Solomon Islands politicians. This was really good news. We should be doing this with payments to American politicians, we should be doing this across the board.
Why don't we publish their payments to politicians around the world? Let's expose these guys, let's go after them. Let's root out Chinese influence, because they are subverting our political system.
Similarly, we should also be publishing the bank account details of all these Chinese leaders, because they are corrupt as hell.
Question: Could you comment, please, on what you think is the nature of the personal relationships between Hunter Biden, his father, and Chinese financial institutions. How has it, if at all, affected American foreign policy towards China, and how will it affect that policy?
Chang: There are two things here. There are the financial ties. Hunter Biden has connections with Chinese institutions, which you cannot explain in the absence of corruption.
For instance, he has a relationship with Bohai Harvest Partners, BHR. China puts a lot of money into the care of foreign investment managers. The two billion, or whatever the number is, is not that large, but they only put money with people who have a track record in managing investments. Hunter Biden only has a track record of being the son of Joe Biden.
There are three investigations of Hunter Biden right now. There is the Wilmington US Attorney's Office, the FBI -- I don't place very much hope in either of these – but the third one might actually bear some fruit: the IRS investigation of Hunter Biden.
Let us say, for the moment, that Biden is able to corrupt all three of these investigations. Yet money always leaves a trail. We are going to find out one way or another. Peter Schweizer, for instance, is working on a book on the Biden cash. Eventually, we are going to know about that.
What worries me is not so much the money trail -- and of course, there's the art sales, a subject in itself, because we will find out.
What worries me is that Hunter Biden, by his own admission, is a troubled individual.
He has been to China a number of times. He has probably committed some embarrassing act there, which means that the Ministry of State Security has audio and video recordings of this. Those are the things that can be used for blackmail. We Americans would never know about it, because blackmail does not necessarily leave a trail. This is what we should be most concerned about.
Biden has now had two long phone calls with Xi Jinping. The February call, plus also one a few months ago. We do not know what was said. I would be very worried that when Xi Jinping wants to say something, there will be a phone call to Biden, and it would be Xi doing the talking without note takers.
Question: Please tell us about the China desk over the 30 years, the influence of the bureaucracy on politics; what can they affect?
Chang: I do not agree with our China policy establishment in Washington, in general, and specifically the State Department and NSC.
This a complicated issue. First, there is this notion after the end of the Cold War, that the nature of governments did not matter. You could trade with them, you could strengthen them, and it would not have national security implications. That was wrong for a number of reasons, as we are now seeing.
What bothers me is that, although their assumptions about China have demonstrably been proven wrong, American policymakers still continue with the same policies. There is, in some people's mind, an unbreakable view that we have to cooperate with China.
You hear this from Blinken all the time: "We've got to cooperate where we can." It is this formulation which is tired, and which has not produced the types of policies that are necessary to defend our republic. That is the unfortunate thing.
This is what people learn in international relations school when they go to Georgetown, and they become totally stupid. We Americans should be upset because we have a political class that is not defending us. They are not defending us because they have these notions of China. George Kennan understood the nature of the Soviet Union. I do not understand why we cannot understand the true nature of the Chinese regime.
Part of it is because we have Wall Street, we have Walmart, and they carry China's water. There are more of us than there are of them in this country. We have to exercise our vote to make sure that we implement China policies that actually protect us.
Policies that protect us are going to be drastic and they will be extreme, but absolutely, we have now dug ourselves into such a hole after three decades of truly misguided views on China, that I don't know what else to say. This is not some partisan complaint. Liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats, all have truly misguided China policies.
I do not know what it takes to break this view, except maybe for the deaths of American servicemen and women.
Question: Is the big obstacle American businesses which, in donations to Biden, are the ones stopping decoupling of commerce, and saying, "Do not have war; we would rather earn money"?
Chang: It is. You have, for instance, Nike. There are a number of different companies, but Nike comes to mind right now, because they love to lecture us about racism.
For years they were operating a factory in Qingdao, in the northeastern part of China, that resembled a concentration camp. The laborers were Uighur and Kazakh women, brought there on cattle cars and forced to work.
This factory, technically, was operated by a South Korean sub‑contractor, but that contractor had a three‑decade relationship with Nike. Nike had to know what was going on. This was forced labor, perhaps even slave labor.
Clearly, Nike and Apple and other companies are now, at this very moment, trying to prevent Congress from enacting toughened rules on the importation of forced‑labor products into our country.
One of the good things Trump did was, towards the end of his four years, he started to vigorously enforce the statutes that are already on the books, about products that are made with forced and slave labor. Biden, to his credit, has continued tougher enforcement.
Right now, the big struggle is not the enforcement, but enhancing those rules. Apple and all of these companies are now very much trying to prevent amendment of those laws. It's business, but it's also immoral.
Question: It is not just big Wall Street firms. There are companies that print the Bible. Most Bibles are now printed in China.
When President Trump imposed the tariffs, a lot of the Bible printers who depended on China actually went to Trump and said, "You cannot put those tariffs in because then the cost of Bibles will go up."
Chang: Most everyone lobbies for China. We have to take away their incentive to do so.
Question: What are the chances that China's going to invade Taiwan?
Chang: There is no clear answer.
There are a number of factors that promote stability. One of them is that, for China to invade Taiwan, Xi Jinping has to give some general or admiral basically total control over the Chinese military. That makes this flag officer the most powerful person in China. Xi is not about to do that.
Moreover, the Chinese regime is even more casualty‑adverse than we are. Even if Beijing thinks it can take Taiwan by force, it is probably not going to invade because it knows an invasion would be unpopular with most people in China. It is not going to risk hundreds of thousands of casualties that would result from an invasion.
The reason we have to be concerned is because it is not just a question of Xi Jinping waking up one morning and saying, "I want to invade Taiwan." The danger is the risk of accidental contact, in the skies or on the seas, around Taiwan.
We know that China has been engaging in hostile conduct, and this is not just the incursions into Taiwan's air-defense identification zone. There are also dangerous intercepts of the US Navy and the US Air Force in the global commons. One of those accidents could spiral out of control.
We saw this on April 1st, 2001, with the EP‑3, where a Chinese jet clipped the wing of that slow‑moving propeller plane of the US Navy. The only reason we got through it was that George W. Bush, to his eternal shame, paid China a sum that was essentially a ransom.
He allowed our crew to be held for 11 days. He allowed the Chinese to strip that plane. This was wrong. This was the worst incident in US diplomatic history, but Bush's craven response did get us through it. Unfortunately, by getting through it we taught the Chinese that they can without cost engage in these dangerous maneuvers of intercepting our planes and our ships.
That is the problem: because as we have taught the Chinese to be more aggressive, they have been. One of these incidents will go wrong. The law of averages says that. Then we have to really worry.
Question: You don't think Xi thinks, "Oh well, we can sacrifice a few million Chinese"?
Chang: On the night of June 15th, 2020, there was a clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers in Ladakh, in the Galwan Valley. That was a Chinese sneak attack on Indian-controlled territory. That night, 20 Indian soldiers were killed. China did not admit to any casualties. The Indians were saying that they killed about 45 Chinese soldiers that night.
Remember, this was June 15th of 2020. It took until February of 2021 for China to admit that four Chinese soldiers died. TASS, the Russian news agency, recently issued a story reporting that 45 Chinese soldiers actually died that night.
This incident shows you how risk‑averse and casualty‑averse the Chinese Communist Party is. They are willing to intimidate, they are willing to do all sorts of things. They are, however, loath to fight sustained engagements. Remember, that the number one goal of Chinese foreign policy is not to take over Taiwan. The number one goal of Chinese foreign policy is to preserve Communist Party rule.
If the Communist Party feels that the Chinese people are not on board with an invasion of Taiwan, they will not do it even if they think they will be successful. Right now, the Chinese people are not in any mood for a full‑scale invasion of Taiwan.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping has a very low threshold of risk.
He took a consensual political system where no Chinese leader got too much blame or too much credit, because everybody shared in decisions, and Xi took power from everybody, which means, he ended up with full accountability, which means -- he is now fully responsible.
In 2017, when everything was going China's way, this was great for Xi Jinping because he got all the credit. Now in 2021, where things are not going China's way, he is getting all the blame.
The other thing, is that Xi has raised the cost of losing a political struggle in China. In the Deng Xiaoping era, Deng reduced the cost of losing a struggle. In the Maoist era, if you lost a struggle, you potentially lost your life. In Deng's era, if you lost a struggle, you got a nice house, a comfortable life.
Xi Jinping has reversed that. Now the cost of losing a political struggle in China is very high. So there is now a combination of these two developments. Xi has full accountability. He knows that if he is thrown out of power, he loses not just power. He loses his freedom, his assets, potentially his life.
If he has nothing to lose, however, it means that he can start a war, either "accidentally" or on purpose. He could be thinking, "I'm dying anyway, so why don't I just roll the dice and see if I can get out of this?"
That is the reason why this moment is so exceedingly risky. When you look at the internal dynamics inside China right now, we are dealing with a system in crisis.
Question: China has a conference coming up in a year or so. What does Chairman Xi want to do to make sure he gets through that conference with triumph?
Chang: The Communist Party has recently been holding its National Congresses once every five years. If the pattern follows -- and that is an if -- the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party will be held either October or November of next year.
This is an important Congress, more so than most of them because Xi Jinping is looking for an unprecedented third term as general secretary of the Communist Party.
If you go back six months ago, maybe a year, everyone was saying, "Oh, Xi Jinping. No problem. He's president for life. He's going to get his third term. He will get his fourth term. He will get his fifth term, as long as he lives. This guy is there forever." Right now, that assumption is no longer valid. We do not know what's going to happen because he is being blamed for everything.
Remember, as we get close to the 20th National Congress, Xi Jinping knows he has to show "success." Showing "success" could very well mean killing some more Indians or killing Americans or killing Japanese or something. We just don't know what is going to happen.
Prior to the National Congress, there is the sixth plenum of the 19th Congress. Who knows what is going to happen there. The Communist Party calendar, as you point out, does dictate the way Xi Jinping interacts with the world.
Question: Going back to the wing-clip incident, what should Bush have done?
Chang: What Bush should have done is immediately demand the return of that plane. What he should have done was to impose trade sanctions, investment sanctions, whatever, to get our plane back.
We were fortunate, in the sense that our aviators were returned, but they were returned in a way that has made relations with China worse, because we taught the Chinese regime to be more aggressive and more belligerent. We created the problems of today and of tomorrow.
I would have imposed sanction after sanction after sanction, and just demand that they return the plane and the pilots. Remember, that at some point, it was in China's interests to return our aviators. The costs would have been too high for the Chinese to keep them. We did not use that leverage on them.
While we are on this topic, we should have made it clear to the Chinese leadership that they cannot kill Americans without cost. Hundreds of thousands Americans have been killed by a disease that China deliberately spread.
In one year, from 2020 to 2021, nearly 80,000 Americans died from fentanyl, which China has purposefully, as a matter of state and Communist Party policy -- sold to Americans. China is killing us. We have to do something different. I'm not saying that we have good solutions; we don't. But we have to change course.
Question: Biden is continuing this hostage thing with Huawei, returning the CFO of Huawei in exchange for two Canadians. Have we taught the Chinese that they can grab more hostages?
Chang: President Trump was right to seek the extradition of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies. Biden, in a deal, released her. She did not even have to plead guilty to any Federal crime. She signed a statement, which I hope we'll be able to use against Huawei.
As soon as Meng was released, China released the "two Michaels," the two Canadians who were grabbed within days of our seeking extradition of Meng Wanzhou. In other words, the two Michaels were hostages.
We have taught China that any time that we try to enforce our own laws, they can just grab Americans. They have grabbed Americans as hostages before, but this case is high profile. They grabbed Americans, and then they grabbed Canadians, and they got away with it. They are going to do it again.
We are creating the incentives for Beijing to act even more dangerously and lawlessly and criminally in the future. This has to stop.
Question: On the off-chance that the current leader does not maintain his position, what are your thoughts on the leaders that we should keep an eye on?
Chang: There is no one who stands out among the members of the Politburo Standing Committee. That is purposeful. Xi Jinping has made sure that there is nobody who can be considered a successor; that is the last thing he wants.
If there is a change in leadership, the new leader probably will come from Jiang Zemin's Shanghai Gang faction. Jiang was China's leader before Hu Jintao, and Hu came before Xi Jinping.
There is now a lot of factional infighting. Most of the reporting shows that Jiang has been trying to unseat Xi Jinping because Xi has been putting Jiang's allies in jail.
Remember, the Communist Party is not a monolith. It has a lot of factions. Jiang's faction is not the only one. There is something called the Communist Youth League of Hu Jintao. It could, therefore, be anybody.
Question: Double question: You did not talk about Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong lost forever to the Chinese Communist Party? Second question, if you could, what are the three policies that you would change right away?
Chang: Hong Kong is not lost forever. In Hong Kong, there is an insurgency. We know from the history of insurgencies that they die away -- and they come back. We have seen this in Hong Kong. The big protests in Hong Kong, remember, 2003, 2014, 2019. In those interim periods, everyone said, "Oh, the protest movement is gone." It wasn't.
China has been very effective with its national security law, but there is still resistance in Hong Kong. There is still a lot of fight there. It may not manifest itself for quite some time, but this struggle is not over, especially if the United States stands behind the people there. Biden, although he campaigned on helping Hong Kong, has done nothing.
On the second question, I would close China's four remaining consulates. I would also strip the Chinese embassy down to the ambassador and his personal staff. The thousands who are in Washington, DC, they would be out.
I would also raise tariffs to 3,600%, or whatever. This is a good time to do it. We have supply chain disruptions. We are not getting products from China anyway. We can actually start to do this sort of stuff.
The third thing, I would do what Pompeo did, just hammer those guys all the time verbally. People may think, "Those are just words." For communists, words are really important, because they are an insecure regime where propaganda is absolutely critical.
I would be going after the Communists on human rights, I would be going after them on occupying the South China Sea, on Taiwan, unrelentingly -- because I would want to show the world that the United States is no longer afraid of China.
We have taught the world that we are afraid of dealing with the Chinese. State Department people, they are frightened. We need to say to the Chinese regime, like Dulles, "I'm not afraid of you. I'm going after you, and I'm going to win."
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