English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 07/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
No one can serve two masters; for a slave will either hate the one and love the
other, or be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and
wealth
Matthew 06/22-24/‘The eye is the lamp of the body. So, if
your eye is healthy, your whole body will be full of light; but if your eye is
unhealthy, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the light in you is
darkness, how great is the darkness! ‘No one can serve two masters; for a slave
will either hate the one and love the other, or be devoted to the one and
despise the other. You cannot serve God and wealth.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on March 06-07/2022
The Leper’s Solid Faith Cured Him/Elias Bejjani/March 06/2022
Rahi condemns war on Ukraine, says 'neutrality we defend does not Contradict
with the right of peoples to self-determination'
Gas queues in Lebanon as fears mount over food security
Corona - MoPH: 1007 new Coronavirus cases, 10 deaths
Hezbollah’s Rivals in Eastern Lebanon Race to Influence Votes of Clans
Lebanon: Alloush Is First to Resign From Al-Mustaqbal Movement Following
Hariri’s Withdrawal
Hajj Hassan: Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are moving
quickly
Brax, Fayyad Say No Gasoline Shortage as Lines Return to Stations
Hizbullah, Berri Shun Panel Formed to Study Hochstein's Proposal
Algerian Foreign Minister arrives in Beirut
Halabi: Lebanon is conducting international contacts to address food security
Geagea: LF is a political party, and toppling Bassil or others will fall on the
voters' shoulders
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 06-07/2022
Pope Francis says Ukraine conflict is not a 'military operation but a
war'
Iranian nuclear talks clouded by Russian demands
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Unveil Two Missile, Drone Bases
Iran, IAEA Agree Timeline to Remove Obstacle to Reviving Nuclear Deal
Stop fighting, Putin tells Ukraine, as anti-war protests grow
Over 1.5 Million Refugees Fled Ukraine in Past 10 Days
Ukraine City Mariupol Tries Again to Evacuate Civilians
Putin Threatens Ukraine 'Statehood' as Moscow Sanctions Tighten
Besieged Ukrainian City Plans Evacuation Again, Refugee Total Hits 1.5 Million
U.S. 'Working Actively' on Deal for Polish Fighter Jets to Ukraine
Erdogan Urges Putin to Declare Ukraine Ceasefire, Make Peace
Talk of Russian Nuclear Escalation Is Brinkmanship, Says UK’s Raab
Canada Urges Citizens to Leave Russia
More than 1,000 People Detained at Anti-war Protests in Russia
Egyptian-EU Talks Discuss Fight against Terrorism, Illegal Immigration
Moroccan Businessmen to Visit Israel Next Week
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 06-07/2022
A Plan for Peace in Europe/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/March 06/2022
The New Cold War and its Effects on Our Region/Amr Moussa/Asharq Al Awsat/March
06/2022
On the Priorities of War and Impact of Major Surprises/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al
Awsat/March 06/2022
Putin, His Rat and Six Ways the War in Ukraine Could End/Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/March
06/2022
Russians Are About to Learn Some German Lessons/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/March
06/2022
How Zelensky used social media to his advantage/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/March
06/2022
on March 06-07/2022
The Leper’s Solid Faith Cured Him
Elias Bejjani/March 06/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/52983/elias-bejjani-the-lepers-solid-faith-cured-him/
Christ, the Son of God, is always ready and willing to help the sinners who seek
forgiveness and repentance. When we are remorseful and ask Him for exoneration,
He never gives up on us no matter what we did or said. As a loving Father, He
always comes to our rescue when we get ourselves into trouble. He grants us all
kinds of graces to safeguard us from falling into the treacherous traps of
Satan’s sinful temptations.
Jesus the only Son Of God willingly endured all kinds of humiliation, pain,
torture and accepted death on the cross for our sake and salvation. Through His
crucifixion He absolved us from the original sin that our first parents Adam and
Eve committed. He showed us the righteous ways through which we can return with
Him on the Day Of Judgment to His Father’s Heavenly kingdom.
Jesus made his call to the needy, persecuted, sick and sinners loud and clear:
“Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.”
(Matthew 11:28) The outcast leper believed in Jesus’ call and came to Him asking
for cleansing. Jesus took his hand, touched him with love, and responded to his
request.
The leper knew deep in his heart that Jesus could cure him from his devastating
and shameful leprosy if He is willing to do so. Against all odds he took the
hard and right decision to seek out at once Jesus’ mercy.
With solid faith, courage and perseverance the leper approached Jesus and
begging him, kneeling down to him, and says to him, “If you want to, you can
make me clean.” When he had said this, immediately the leprosy departed from him
and he was made clean. Jesus extended His hand and touched him with great
passion and strictly warned him, “See you say nothing to anybody, but go show
yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing the things which Moses
commanded, for a testimony to them.” But the leper went out, began to proclaim
it much, and spread about the matter so that Jesus could no more openly enter
into a city, but was outside in desert places: and they came to him from
everywhere. (Mark 1/40-45)
We sinners, all of us, ought to learn from the leper’s great example of faith.
Like him we need to endeavour for sincere repentance with heartfelt prayer,
begging Almighty God for absolution from all our sins. Honest pursuit of
salvation and repentance requires a great deal of humility, honesty, love,
transparency and perseverance. Like the leper we must trust in God’s mercy and
unwaveringly go after it.
The faithful leper sensed deep inside his conscience that Jesus could cleanse
him, but was not sure if he is worth Jesus’ attention and mercy.
His faith and great trust in God made him break all the laws that prohibited a
leper from getting close to or touching anybody. He tossed himself at Jesus’
feet scared and trembling. With great love, confidence, meekness and passion he
spoke to Jesus saying “If you will, you can make me clean.” He did not mean if
you are in a good mood at present. He meant, rather, if it is not out of line
with the purpose of God, and if it is not violating some cosmic program God is
working out then you can make me clean.
Lepers in the old days were outcasts forced to live in isolation far away from
the public. They were not allowed to continue living in their own communities or
families. They were looked upon as dead people and forbidden from even entering
the synagogues to worship. They were harshly persecuted, deprived of all their
basic rights and dealt with as sinners. But in God’s eyes these sick lepers were
His children whom He dearly loves and cares for. “Blessed are you when people
reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for
my sake. Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven.
For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you”.
Matthew(5/11-12)
The leper trusted in God’s parenthood and did not have any doubts about Jesus’
divinity and power to cleanse and cure him. Without any hesitation, and with a
pure heart, he put himself with full submission into Jesus’ hands and will
knowing that God our Father cannot but have mercy on His children. “Blessed are
the pure in heart, for they shall see God”. (Matthew5/8)
We need to take the leper as a role model in our lives. His strong and steadfast
faith cured him and put him back into society. We are to know God can do
whatever He wants and to trust Him. If He is willing, He will. We just have to
trust in the goodness and mercy of God and keep on praying and asking, and He
surely will respond in His own way even though many times our limited minds can
not grasp His help.
Praying on regular basis as Jesus instructed us to is an extremely comforting
ritual: “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe
that you have received them, and you shall have them. Whenever you stand
praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father, who
is in heaven, may also forgive you your transgressions. But if you do not
forgive, neither will your Father in heaven forgive your transgressions” (Mark
11/24-26)
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and always responds to our
requests when we approach Him with pure hearts, trust, confidence and
humbleness. Almighty God is a loving father who loves us all , we His children
and all what we have to do to get His attention is to make our requests through
praying. “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it
will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To
him who knocks it will be opened”. (Matthew 7/8 -9)
N.B: The above piece was first published in year 2015/It is republished with
Minor changes
Rahi condemns war on Ukraine, says 'neutrality we defend
does not contradict with the right of peoples to self-determination'
NNA/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rahi stressed that "war and weapons only generate
destruction, killing innocent victims, displacing a safe people, creating
wounded and disabled people, destroying achievements, impoverishing citizens,
sowing terror in the hearts of children, widening the area of hunger, and
destroying the harvest of life.""With what authority do warlords who command it
from their thrones while they are safe from its scourge?", Patriarch Rahi asked.
Rahi, whose fresh words In a sermon on Sunday in Bkerke, Al-Ra’i indicated that
“we pray that the war stops, as a mercy to the innocent, an end to destruction,
killing and displacement, and a cooling of anger and hatred, and for the two
sides to sit down to resolve the conflict between them peacefully.”The Patriarch
denounced what is happening in Ukraine, stressing that “the concept of
neutrality, especially in the human dimension that we are defending, is not
devoid of heart, feeling and conscience, and does not conflict with human rights
or the right of peoples to self-determination, and does not contradict
international laws.”Commenting on the issue of the parliamentary elections, he
called for holding the parliamentary elections on time, so that people have
their say and speak the word of truth and good choice, and so that the people do
not miss the opportunity for change, adding that the political class should not
not circumvent this constitutional right under any pretext.
Gas queues in Lebanon as fears mount over food security
Najia Houssari/Arab News/March 06, 2022
BEIRUT: Hour-long queues outside gas stations have returned to Lebanon, as
supplies of cooking oil and flour in shops dwindle amid mounting fears of a food
security crisis. Citizens told Arab News: “We saw on social media that a new
crisis is underway. We arrived at the supermarket to find people fighting over
cooking oil and flour. “We do not trust the promises made by the ruling
authority and we have previously run out of basic foodstuffs and medicines,”
they said. “We fear this could happen again, especially since Ramadan is
approaching,” they added. Lebanon lost important wheat silos in the Beirut port
blast in 2020. The facilities used to store about 120,000 tons of wheat. Today,
the country stores much of its wheat in warehouses in the north, which are
stocked after supplies are unloaded in the port of Tripoli. But Lebanon still
lacks sufficient storage space, and is dependent on regular imports to secure
its monthly demand for wheat, which is about 50,000 tons. In 2020, Lebanon
imported more than 630,000 tons from Ukraine, which represented 80 percent of
its total imports. Russia supplied 15 percent of the remainder, while 5 percent
came from other countries. And in 2021, Lebanon imported 520,000 tons from
Ukraine and the rest from Russia. Lebanon’s remaining stockpile is estimated to
last a little more than a month, especially if the Central Bank fails to
transfer money for wheat shipments that Lebanese mills have ordered. Economy
Minister Amin Salam said the government is seeking to reach agreements with
several countries to import wheat at reasonable prices and secure reserves of up
to two months.“But the problem remains in the source and price, in addition to
the speed of delivery of supplies before our stock runs out,” he added. As a
result of the financial collapse and currency devaluation, Lebanon’s purchasing
power has significantly declined, meaning its economy is almost entirely
dependent on imports.The prices of commodities, foodstuffs and services are now
intertwined with global markets, and any international events, such as the
Ukraine conflict, have direct effects on the Lebanese public.
Lebanon’s annual imports from Ukraine total about $500 million.
Head of the Syndicate of Food Importers in Lebanon Hani Bohsali said: “Lebanon
imports 100,000 tons of oils per year, 90,000 tons of which are sunflower oils,
and 60 percent of sunflower oil comes from Ukraine, 30 percent from Russia, and
10 percent from Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Ukraine is currently no longer
exporting, while Russia may encounter problems with the SWIFT system, which will
disrupt imports.”While the government seeks alternative countries to supply
wheat, Bohsali warned that there were no alternatives to source cooking oils or
the raw materials needed to produce them. On Sunday, members of the State
Security Directorate carried out inspections on gas stations that closed on
Saturday, claiming that they had run out of supplies. Authorities forced them to
reopen if they had remaining stock.Queues at gas stations returned on Saturday
following rumors of a fuel crisis.
The official prices of fuel surged on Thursday, with a 20-liter canister of
gasoline costing more than 400,000 Lebanese pounds ($20). A 20-liter canister of
diesel reached 375,000 Lebanese pounds.However, Energy Minister Walid Fayad
denied that there was a crisis on Sunday.Ships carrying gasoline supplies are at
sea and will soon unload their cargo, he added. “It seems that fuel suppliers
want to issue a daily price schedule to keep pace with the global markets,”
Fayad said. The General Directorate of Petroleum is expected to issue a new
table of fuel prices to take into account surging global fuel prices.
Georges Brax, a member of the gas station owners’ syndicate, called on citizens
to avoid panicking and stockpiling gasoline. “It is true that the quantities
arriving in Lebanon are now less than before due to the global crisis, but what
we receive is sufficient for local needs,” he said. Brax called on the Central
Bank to speed up the prepayments for ships to unload their cargoes in order to
avoid a crisis, especially since the situation could worsen in the future.
Corona - MoPH: 1007 new Coronavirus cases, 10 deaths
NNA/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Lebanon has recorded 1007 new coronavirus cases and 10 more deaths in the past
24 hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Sunday.
Hezbollah’s Rivals in Eastern Lebanon Race to Influence
Votes of Clans
Baalbek - Hussein Darwish/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Opposition forces are racing to win over clans and families in the Baalbek-Hermel
governorate in eastern Lebanon, in an attempt to secure their votes in the
electoral race, in the face of the list of Hezbollah and its allies. The various
forces opposed to Hezbollah are trying to take advantage of the party’s failure
to nominate candidates from the region’s clans and families for the upcoming
parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for May 2022. The party has
selected the same figures, who won in the previous elections, including MPs
Hussein Hajj Hassan, Ihab Hamadeh, Ibrahim Moussawi and Ali Meqdad.
The list put forward by the Lebanese Forces party in Baalbek-Hermel is likely to
obtain the majority of votes among the opposition groups, according to recent
opinion polls. The Shiite alliances in the list facing Hezbollah will play a key
role in the results of the elections. However, these alliances are yet to
crystallize, pending the announcement of the Shiite candidates. The clans are
distributed in the Baalbek-Hermel governorate in the regions and villages of
Bouday, Makna, Al-Kenisa, Hermel, Al-Hadath, Sha’at and Riha, in addition to the
border villages inhabited by Lebanese on the Syrian side of the northern Bekaa
region.Candidates representing the clans are looking forward to fighting their
electoral battle in a unified electoral list. They blame the entire political
class for the deteriorating economic situation and the prevailing corruption. In
this regard, clan sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the major clans and families
“could win two seats if they unite and gather the Shiite voices that are not
loyal to Hezbollah and its allies.”“We consider ourselves the strongest, and we
can offer our people what others have not been able to give,” said Dumr Meqdad,
a social activist and a candidate for the parliamentary elections. He added:
“When the moment comes to make a decision, we will rally around each other
alongside our clans.” A list representing the region’s clans is preparing to
engage in the electoral battle. It is composed of Medhat Zeaiter and Khaled
Jaafar from the Lebanese border region, in addition to Dumr Meqdad, Youssef
Shamas, a candidate from the Nassreddine family, as well as an independent
activist from the town of Arsal. On the other hand, the Lebanese Forces party is
seeking to build a strong list to win over the clans, following its successful
experience with Shiite candidate and former MP Yehya Shamas in the 2018
elections.
Lebanon: Alloush Is First to Resign From Al-Mustaqbal Movement Following
Hariri’s Withdrawal
Beirut/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Former Lebanese MP Mustafa Alloush submitted his resignation from Al-Mustaqbal
Movement without confirming his intention to run for the upcoming parliamentary
elections in May. His move came in the wake of former Prime Minister Saad
Hariri’s decision to suspend his political work. The former premier, who
announced his withdrawal from Lebanon’s political scene at the end of January,
had reportedly told Al-Mustaqbal members who wish to run for elections to
refrain from using his name or that of the movement. Alloush was the first to
submit his resignation from the party. In comments, Al-Mustaqbal issued a
statement, saying: “Dr. Mustafa Alloush submitted his resignation from the
Future Movement in a call he made with Prime Minister Saad Hariri.”It added:
“Hariri considered the resignation effective and deposited the decision with the
Secretary-General to proceed accordingly. Thus, Dr. Alloush is freed from any
organizational obligations and has the full right, according to the rules, to
take the path he deems appropriate, whether in the elections or otherwise,
wishing him success and appreciating his positions and the tasks he assumed in
the movement over the past years.”Alloush was one of the most prominent
opponents of Hariri’s decision to suspend political work. He recently agreed
with former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that the Sunni arena should not remain
vacant.Recent reports said that he was in constant coordination with Siniora and
other former prime ministers. However, sources close to the former deputy said
that he was yet to decide on his electoral candidacy. Meanwhile, Siniora
announced that he was seriously considering running in the parliamentary
elections, and called on the Lebanese, especially Sunnis, to participate
massively, whether by voting or submitting their candidacies.
Hajj Hassan: Negotiations with the International Monetary
Fund are moving quickly
NNA/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Minister of Agriculture, Abbas Hajj Al-Hassan, indicated, in an interview, that
"the ministry will work to prevent the export of agricultural and other
materials in an attempt to prevent the crisis from worsening with the
continuation of the war in Ukraine."Hajj Hassan stressed that he was "the first
supporter of the decision to plant soft wheat in Lebanon to secure daily food
for the Lebanese."He indicated that "negotiations with the International
Monetary Fund are proceeding quickly," hoping that an agreement will be reached
before the upcoming parliamentary elections, to demonstrate to the donors how
serious Lebanon is.
Brax, Fayyad Say No Gasoline Shortage as Lines Return to
Stations
Naharnet/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
A top member of the gas station owners syndicate of Lebanon, George al-Brax, has
reassured that there is no gasoline shortage in the market, asking consumers not
to panic, as long queues returned to fuel stations over the past hours. “The
fuel quantities that are reaching Lebanon have become smaller than before, but
what we’re receiving is sufficient to meet domestic need,” Brax said in a TV
interview. “The Energy Ministry must remain in contact with those concerned with
importing fuel, and the Central Bank must speed up the prepayment processes for
ships, so that we avert a crisis, especially if things will get worse in the
future,” Brax added. Energy Minister Walid Fayyad for his part reassured that
“we are not in a crisis as to the availability of the gasoline substance in the
local market.”“Russia is not the exporter from which we import the substance
from,” Fayyad added, noting that “ships carrying gasoline are at sea and the
companies and stations have stocks.” “According to my information and the
numbers, the available quantity can last for several days and even until the end
of the month,” the Minister went on to say, noting that the Ministry “did not
find it appropriate” to hike prices over the weekend after having issued new
prices on Thursday in light of the global surge in oil prices. “We are following
up on the fluctuation of the global oil prices and we will amend prices when
necessary,” Fayyad added, pointing out that the Ministry is keen on providing
consumers with gasoline for the lowest possible cost. “Gas stations are asked to
supply citizens with gasoline according to the current prices which do preserve
their profit margins,” the Minister went on to say, warning that relevant
inspection officials escorted by State Security agents would begin raiding
stations to make sure that they are abiding by the official prices and that they
are not withholding their stocks from consumers. Lebanon had witnessed a run on
gas stations as the gasoline black market flourished in the months that preceded
the state’s halt of fuel subsidization. Fuel hoarding and shortages also
contributed to that crisis.
Hizbullah, Berri Shun Panel Formed to Study Hochstein's
Proposal
Naharnet/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah have distanced themselves from a panel formed
by President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Najib Miqati with the aim of
studying the written proposal that has been sent to Lebanon by U.S. sea border
demarcation envoy Amos Hochstein, media reports said on Saturday.
“It had been initially decided to form a technical-administrative committee
comprising representatives of the three presidencies (Aoun, Berri and Miqati)
and the relevant ministries, but Berri distanced himself from this panel and
refrained from dispatching any representative,” ministerial sources told the
Nidaa al-Watan newspaper. “It was later decided to limit the committee’s
membership to representatives of the Presidency, the Premiership and the
ministries of foreign affairs, defense, energy and public works,” the sources
added. “Once it is formed, the committee will study the U.S. proposal and
prepare a draft response for all its points before submitting it to the three
presidencies for the final decision to taken,” the sources said, noting that the
panel “does not comprise any member of the military-technical delegation that
had been tasked with engaging in indirect negotiations (with Israel) in Naqoura,”
the sources went on to say. Al-Akhbar newspaper meanwhile said that the panel
will include eight members – two for Aoun, two for Miqati, two for the Foreign
Ministry and two for the Defense Ministry. It might also comprise envoys from
the Lebanese Army and the ministries of environment, public works and energy,
the daily added. High-level sources meanwhile told al-Akhbar that Public Works
Minister Ali Hamiyeh told Hizbullah that the premier wants him to be part of the
committee and that the party rejected his participation. “We will not take part
in any meeting or negotiations related to the demarcation file, especially if
the committee will meet with U.S. delegations,” Hizbulah told the minister
according to the daily. “The Baabda Palace and the Grand Serail have not agreed
on the names of the committee members until the moment,” al-Akhbar added.
Algerian Foreign Minister arrives in Beirut
NNA/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra, heading a delegation from the
ministry, arrived this evening at the civil aviation building at Beirut
International Airport, on a two-day official visit to Lebanon, during which he
will meet with President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih
Berri, PM Najib Mikati and Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib. The
Algerian minister and the accompanying delegation were received by the Director
of Protocol at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Abeer Al-Ali. It is
noteworthy that the Algerian minister visited Lebanon in 2015
Halabi: Lebanon is conducting international contacts to
address food security
NNA/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Minister of Education and Higher Education and Acting Information Minister Abbas
Al-Halabi explained, in an interview, that "Lebanon is conducting international
contacts to address the issue of food security," noting that "the horizon is not
blocked." Halabi pointed out that "there is a global contraction in exports in
many countries for fear of the development of the war in Ukraine and the
aggravation of its repercussions."The Minister stressed that "bringing up the
issue of the megacenter on the eve of the deadline for submission of
nominations, would open the door to appeals to the electoral process, and thus
to the overthrow of the electoral merit."
Geagea: LF is a political party, and toppling Bassil or
others will fall on the voters' shoulders
NNA/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Head of the "Lebanese Forces" party, Samir Geagea, affirmed that the nomination
of Ghiath Yazbek in Batroun does not aim to topple Gebran Bassil, but rather
because the Lebanese Forces have a candidate in this region. Geagea explained
that "the Lebanese Forces Party is a political party that seeks to implement its
political project, and therefore it is not the one to bring down Bassil or
others, but this role falls on the shoulders of the voters."He considered that
Yazbek's candidacy does not prevent Bassil from losing, in these particular
days, on the basis of the situation the country has reached. "Gebran Bassil must
fall for countless different reasons," he concluded.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on March 06-07/2022
Pope Francis says Ukraine conflict is not a
'military operation but a war'
Reuters/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Pope Francis on Sunday rejected Russia's assertion that it is carrying out "a
special military operation" in Ukraine, saying the country was being battered by
war. "In Ukraine rivers of blood and tears are flowing. This is not just a
military operation but a war which sows death, destruction and misery," the pope
said in his weekly address to crowds gathered in St. Peter's Square. However, as
has been the case throughout the 11-day conflict, the pope did not publicly
condemn Russia by name for its invasion. Instead, he repeated his appeal for
peace, the creation of humanitarian corridors and a return to negotiations. "In
that martyred country the need for humanitarian assistance is growing by the
hour," the pope said, speaking from a window overlooking the square. "Let common
sense prevail, let us return to the respect of international law." Russia calls
its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” not a war and says this is not
designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military
capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists. There were
many more people than normal gathered in front of St. Peter's Basilica for the
pope's Sunday appearance, with some holding aloft multi-coloured peace flags as
well as the blue and yellow flag of Ukraine. "The Holy See is willing to do all
everything to put itself at the service of peace," the pope said, adding that
two Roman Catholic cardinals had gone to Ukraine to help those in need. "War is
madness, please stop," the pope said. Andriy Yurash, Ukraine's ambassador to the
Vatican, praised the pope for calling the conflict a war. "I am very, very happy
that he said that," he told Reuters in St. Peter's Square shortly after the pope
ended his address. "Even if the pope did not say the word 'Russia', everyone in
the world knows who the aggressor that invaded us is and who started this
unprovoked war," he said.
Iranian nuclear talks clouded by Russian demands
Reuters/March 06, 2022
VIENNA: Talks to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers were mired in
uncertainty on Sunday following Russia’s demands for a US guarantee that the
sanctions it faces over the Ukraine conflict will not hurt its trade with
Tehran.
Moscow threw the potential spanner in the works on Saturday, just as months of
indirect talks between Tehran and Washington in Vienna appeared to be headed for
an agreement, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying the Western sanctions
over Ukraine had become a stumbling block for the nuclear deal. US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken sought to dispel talk of such obstacles on Sunday when he
said that the sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine had nothing to do with a
potential nuclear deal with Iran. “These things are totally different and just
are not, in any way, linked together. So I think that’s irrelevant,” Blinken
said in an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” show. He added that a
potential deal with Iran was close, but cautioned that a couple of very
challenging remaining issues were unresolved. Yet a senior Iranian official told
Reuters earlier that Tehran was waiting for clarification from Moscow about the
comments from Lavrov, who said Russia wanted a written US guarantee that
Russia’s trade, investment and military-technical cooperation with Iran would
not be hindered in any way by the sanctions.
“It is necessary to understand clearly what Moscow wants. If what they demand is
related to the JCPOA, it would not be difficult to find a solution for it,” said
the Iranian official, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“But it will be complicated, if the guarantees that Moscow has demanded, are
beyond the JCPOA.”
British, French and German diplomats who had flown home before Lavrov’s comments
to brief officials on the nuclear talks have not indicated when they might
return to Vienna. Henry Rome, Iran analyst at consultancy Eurasia group, said
reviving the nuclear pact without Russia was “tricky but probably doable, at
least in the near term.” “If Russia continues to obstruct the talks, I think the
other parties and Iran will have no choice but to think creatively about ways to
get the deal done without Moscow’s involvement,” Rome told Reuters. On Sunday,
Iranian negotiators met EU diplomat Enrique Mora, who coordinates the talks
between Tehran and world powers. Since the election of Iran’s hard-line
president Ebrahim Raisi last year, senior officials have been pushing for deeper
ties with Russia.
Iran’s top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, has publicly and
privately been calling for closer ties with Russia due to his deep mistrust of
the United States. The 2015 agreement, between Iran and the United States,
France, Britain, Germany, Russia and Chin, eased sanctions on Tehran in return
for limiting Iran’s enrichment of uranium, making it harder for Tehran to
develop material for nuclear weapons. The accord fell apart after President
Donald Trump withdrew the United States in 2018. The return of Iranian oil would
help replace Russian barrels lost as the United States and its allies seeks to
freeze out Moscow ,following the invasion and soften the impact on the West
which is already struggling with high inflation. US negotiator Robert Malley has
suggested that securing the nuclear pact is unlikely unless Tehran frees four US
citizens, including Iranian-American father and son Baquer and Siamak Namazi.
A senior Iranian official in Tehran said if Tehran’s demands are met the
prisoners issue can be resolved with or without a revival of the nuclear deal.
Iran, which does not recognize dual nationality, denies US accusations that it
takes prisoners to gain diplomatic leverage. In recent years, the elite
Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners,
mostly on espionage and security-related charges. Tehran has sought the release
of over a dozen Iranians in the United States, including seven Iranian-American
dual nationals, two Iranians with permanent US residency and four Iranian
citizens with no legal status in the United States.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Unveil Two Missile, Drone Bases
London, Tehran /Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Iran's Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) unveiled two new missile and drone tunnel
bases, Iranian media reported on Saturday. “The two underground missile bases
house ground-to-ground missile systems with advanced equipment, as well as
attack drones penetrating the enemy's radar and defense networks,” said state
media. The Tasnim news agency reported that IRGC Commander Major General Hossein
Salami and IRGC commander of Aerospace Force, Brigadier General Amir-Ali
Hajizadeh attended the inauguration ceremony of the two underground bases. The
IRGC names underground missile bases as Missile Cities. Tasnim’s report said the
new base boasts homegrown drones with a range of 2,000 kilometers, twin missile
launch platforms, and platforms for the launch of multiple drones. It added that
a combination of accuracy and quality in the employment of the new military
systems was put on display in a massive exercise held in December 2021. The IRGC
had declared its ability to launch 60 drones simultaneously, according to
Reuters. Saturday’s unveiling comes days after Iran suffered another failed
launch of a satellite-carrying rocket. Satellite images from Maxar Technologies
seen by The Associated Press showed scorch marks at a launchpad at the Imam
Khomeini Spaceport in Iran's rural Semnan province.
Iran, IAEA Agree Timeline to Remove Obstacle to Reviving
Nuclear Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog on Saturday agreed a three-month plan that in
the best case will resolve the long-stalled issue of uranium particles found at
old but undeclared sites in the country, removing an obstacle to reviving the
Iran nuclear deal. Eleven months after indirect talks between Iran and the
United States on salvaging the 2015 deal began in Vienna, delegates are trying
to settle the final thorny issues within days as Western powers say time is
running out since Iran's nuclear advances will soon make the deal redundant. One
unresolved issue, diplomats say, has been Iran's demand for the closure of the
International Atomic Energy Agency's investigation into uranium particles found
at three apparently old but undeclared sites, which suggest that Iran had
nuclear material there that it did not declare to the agency. The agency has
long said Iran has not given satisfactory answers on those issues, but on
Saturday they announced a plan for a series of exchanges after which IAEA chief
Rafael Grossi "will aim to report his conclusion by the June 2022 (IAEA) Board
of Governors" meeting, which begins on June 6. The joint plan clears the way for
a possible agreement to revive the 2015 deal, though Grossi emphasized that his
conclusion would not necessarily be positive. Where anything other than full
resolution would leave implementation of any agreement, however, remains to be
seen. "It would be difficult to imagine you can have a cooperative relationship
as if nothing had happened if the clarification of very important safeguards
issues were to fail," Grossi said in a news conference when asked what the
effect on reviving the deal would be if the issues were not closed. Grossi also
suggested the presentation of his conclusion would happen before
"Re-Implementation Day" - the day by which the bulk of US sanctions-lifting and
Iranian implementation of nuclear restrictions will have happened under any
future agreement - even though they are officially unrelated. "It is obvious
that for Iran it is important to try to have the processes I wouldn't say
running in absolute synchronicity, but there is a sort of a loose relationship,"
he said when asked if the three-month timeframe was based on the timing of
Re-Implementation Day.
'No longer outstanding'
Grossi was speaking after a trip to Tehran in which he met Iran's nuclear chief
Mohammad Eslami and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. While the plan
provides a roadmap for resolving the agency's open questions about the three
sites, the agency removed a fourth open issue from its list - the possible
presence in the past of a uranium metal disc at another undeclared location. A
confidential IAEA report sent to member states after Grossi's return and seen by
Reuters said the agency had informed Iran that "this issue could be considered
as no longer outstanding at this stage", adding that the IAEA "could not exclude
that the disc had been melted, re-cast and may now be part of the declared
nuclear material inventory". Uranium metal and how to make it are particularly
sensitive issues because they can be used to make the core of a nuclear bomb.
Stop fighting, Putin tells Ukraine, as anti-war protests
grow
Reuters/March 06, 2022
LVIV: Persistent fighting blocked efforts to evacuate 200,000 people from the
besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol for a second day in a row on Sunday as
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to press ahead with his offensive, which
he said was going to plan, unless Kyiv surrendered. Most people trapped in the
port city are sleeping underground to escape more than six days of near-constant
shelling by encircling Russian forces that has cut off food, water, power and
heating supplies, according to the Ukrainian authorities. The civilian death
toll from hostilities across Ukraine since Moscow launched its invasion on Feb.
24 stood at 364, including more than 20 children, the United Nations said on
Sunday, adding hundreds more were injured. The UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights said most civilian casualties were caused by the use of “explosive
weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and
multi-launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes.”
Moscow has repeatedly denied attacking civilian areas.
In Irpin, a town some 25 km (16 miles) northwest of the capital Kyiv, men, women
and children trying to escape heavy fighting in the area were forced to take
cover when missiles struck nearby, according to Reuters witnesses. Soldiers and
fellow residents helped the elderly hurry to a bus filled with frightened
people, some cowering as they waited to be driven to safety. The invasion has
drawn almost universal condemnation around the world, sent more than 1.5 million
Ukrainians fleeing from the country, and triggered sweeping Western sanctions
against Russia aimed at crippling its economy. The Biden administration said on
Sunday it was exploring banning Russian oil imports. “War is madness, please
stop,” Pope Francis said in his weekly address to crowds in St. Peter’s Square,
adding that “rivers of blood and tears” were flowing in Ukraine’s war. Putin
made his demand for Kyiv to end the fighting in a phone call with Turkish
President Tayyip Erdogan, who appealed for a cease-fire. Putin told Erdogan he
was ready for dialogue with Ukraine and foreign partners but any attempt to draw
out negotiation would fail, a Kremlin statement said. Russian media said Putin
also spoke by phone for almost two hours with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Macron told Putin he was concerned about a possible imminent attack on southern
Ukraine’s historic port city of Odessa, Macron’s office said.
“No to war”
Anti-war protests took place around the world including in Russia itself, where
police detained more than 4,300 people, an independent protest monitoring group
said. The interior ministry said 3,500 demonstrators had been held, included
1,700 people in Moscow and 750 in St. Petersburg. Thousands of protesters
chanted “No to war!” and “Shame on you!,” according to videos posted on social
media by opposition activists and bloggers. Reuters was unable to independently
verify the footage and photographs. Demonstrations were also taking place in
Western capitals as well as in India and Kazakhstan, after jailed Kremlin critic
Alexei Navalny called for worldwide protests against the war. In the besieged
city of Mariupol, authorities had said on Sunday they would make a second
attempt to evacuate some of the 400,000 residents. But the cease-fire plan
collapsed, as it had on Saturday, with each side blaming the other.The
International Committee of the Red Cross said the failed attempt to evacuate
200,000 people had underscored “the absence of a detailed and functioning
agreement between the parties to the conflict.” “They’re destroying us,”
Mariupol mayor Vadym Boychenko told Reuters in a video call, describing the
city’s plight before the latest evacuation effort failed. “They will not even
give us an opportunity to count the wounded and the killed because the shelling
does not stop.”US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States has
seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians in Ukraine, adding
that Washington was documenting them to support appropriate organizations in
their potential war crimes investigation over Russia’s actions. Moscow calls its
campaign a “special military operation,” saying it has no plans to occupy
Ukraine.
A huge Russian convoy north of Kyiv appears to have made limited progress in
recent days, although Russia’s defense ministry released footage on Sunday
showing some tracked military vehicles on the move. In the capital, Ukrainian
soldiers bolstered defenses by digging trenches, blocking roads and liaising
with civil defense units as Russian forces bombarded areas nearby. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian rockets had destroyed the civilian
airport of the central-western region capital of Vinnytsia on Sunday. Russian
forces opened fire at a protest against their occupation of the southern
Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka on Sunday, wounding five people, Ukrainian news
agency Interfax Ukraine said, citing eyewitnesses. The World Health Organization
said there had been several attacks on Ukrainian health care facilities during
the conflict, causing deaths and injuries. It gave no details.
Plea for more weapons
Kyiv renewed its appeal to the West to toughen sanctions, and also requested
more weapons, including a plea for Russian-made planes, to help it repel Russian
forces. Speaking on a trip to neighboring Moldova, Blinken said Washington was
considering how it could backfill aircraft for Poland, if Warsaw decided to
supply its warplanes to Ukraine. Putin says he wants a “demilitarised,”
“denazified” and neutral Ukraine, and on Saturday likened Western sanctions “to
a declaration of war.”The West, which calls Putin’s reasons for invading
baseless, has expanded effort to rearm Ukraine, sending in items from Stinger
missiles to anti-tank weapons. But Washington and its NATO allies have resisted
Ukraine’s plea for a no-fly zone, saying it would escalate the conflict beyond
Ukraine’s borders. Ukrainians continued to pour into Poland, Romania, Slovakia
and elsewhere. The United Nations said over 1.5 million had fled in Europe’s
fastest growing refugee crisis since World War Two. Western sanctions have
pushed many companies to exit investments in Russia, while some Russian banks
have been shut out of a global financial payment systems, driving down the
rouble and forcing Moscow to jack up interest rates.
On Sunday, American Express Co. said it was suspending all operations in Russia
and Belarus. Video sharing app TikTok said it was suspending livestreaming and
the uploading of new content to its service in Russia. Speaking on NBC’s “Meet
the Press” show, Blinken said the United States and European partners are
exploring banning Russian oil imports, but stressed the importance of steady oil
supplies globally. The West has so far refrained from direct measures on Russian
energy exports after oil soared to multi-year highs. Ukraine’s military said
more than 11,000 Russian troops had been killed so far and 88 Russian aircraft
shot down since the start of the invasion. Reuters could not corroborate the
claim. Russia has not given regular updates on its death toll. Tass news agency
cited Russian defense ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov as saying virtually
the entire Ukrainian air force had been destroyed. In the last 36 hours alone,
he said, Ukraine had lost 11 combat aircraft and two helicopters. Reuters had no
way of corroborating the claim.
Over 1.5 Million Refugees Fled Ukraine in Past 10 Days
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
The number of people fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine has topped 1.5
million, making it Europe's fastest growing refugee crisis since World War II,
the United Nations said on Sunday. "More than 1.5 million refugees from Ukraine
have crossed into neighboring countries in 10 days," the U.N. High Commissioner
for Refugees tweeted. The U.N. described the outflow as "the fastest growing
refugee crisis in Europe since World War II," having reported on Saturday that
nearly 1.37 million refugees had fled. U.N. officials said they expected the
wave to intensify further as the Russian army pressed its offensive,
particularly toward the capital Kyiv. Since Russia invaded on February 24, a
total of 922,400 people have fled Ukraine to Poland, Polish border guards said
Sunday. Hungary, Moldova, Romanian and Slovakia have also seen Ukrainian
refugees arrive. The World Health Organization said meanwhile that signs of
attacks on health centers in Ukraine were increasing, which it said amounts to a
violation of medical neutrality and international humanitarian law.
Ukraine City Mariupol Tries Again to Evacuate Civilians
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
The Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which is surrounded by Russian troops, said
it will restart efforts to evacuate civilians Sunday, after earlier efforts were
scuppered by ceasefire violations. "From 1200 (1000 GMT) the evacuation of the
civilian population begins," city officials announced in a statement, which said
a ceasefire was agreed with Russian-led forces surrounding the city. An earlier
attempt on Saturday to allow civilians to leave by buses and private cars along
the road northwest towards Zaporizhzhia failed when both sides accused the other
of shelling. According to aid agency Doctors Without Borders (MSF) the
humanitarian situation in Mariupol, a key target for the Russian invasion
forces, is "catastrophic" with no power or water in civilian homes. "It is
imperative that this humanitarian corridor ... is put in place very quickly,"
MSF's emergency coordinator in Ukraine, Laurent Ligozat, told AFP. Ukrainian
authorities accuse the Russians of shelling even when civilians were gathering
to form an escape convoy, but Moscow's defense ministry accuses the city's
defenders of exploiting a "human shield." Separately, on Sunday, the head of
Kyiv-controlled Lugansk regional administration, said a train would be organized
to evacuate women, children and the elderly from Lysychansk. Lysychansk is near
the frontline between Ukrainian forces and Moscow-backed separatists, who are
fighting to link up with the Russian forces and control the entire southeast.
"You need to reach Lysychansk station on your own. Women with children are
boarding first, then women under 40, women, the elderly," Sergiy Gaiday wrote on
Telegram. If Russian forces succeed in capturing Mariupol which held out against
rebel forces in the previous 2014 conflict, they will control Ukraine's entire
Azov Sea coast. This would give them a landbridge from Russia to Russian-annexed
Crimea and an important supply route and port if they decide to push north in a
bid to take all of eastern Ukraine.
Putin Threatens Ukraine 'Statehood' as Moscow Sanctions
Tighten
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened the existence of Ukrainian statehood
as his army's invasion of the neighbor faces stiff resistance Sunday and his
economy is increasingly asphyxiated by sanctions.
In the latest efforts to freeze Moscow out of the world economy, U.S.-based card
payment giants Visa and Mastercard announced they will suspend operations in
Russia, while world leaders vowed to act over the intensifying onslaught. "The
current (Ukrainian) authorities must understand that if they continue to do what
they are doing, they are putting in question the future of Ukrainian statehood,"
Putin said on Saturday. "And if this happens, they will be fully responsible."
Since Russia's invasion 10 days ago, the economic and humanitarian toll of the
war has spiraled, sending more than one million people fleeing Ukraine.
Officials have reported hundreds of civilians killed and thousands wounded. In a
Facebook post on Sunday the Ukrainian military said it was engaged in "fierce
battles" with Russian forces for the control of borders at the southern city of
Mykolaiv and the Chernihiv in the north. "The main efforts are focused on
defending the city of Mariupol," it said, adding an operation by Ukrainian
forces was also under way in the eastern part of the Donetsk region. Mariupol
officials said it would begin efforts from noon on Sunday to evacuate its
civilian population, after earlier efforts were scuppered by ceasefire
violations.
"From 1200 (1000 GMT) the evacuation of the civilian population begins," city
officials said in a statement, which said a ceasefire was agreed with
Russian-led forces surrounding the city.
The strategic city of Mariupol on the Azov Sea has for days been under siege and
without electricity, food and water, with stop-start ceasefires.
Its mayor Vadim Boitchenko said in an interview published on YouTube "Mariupol
no longer exists" and that thousands of people have been wounded. "The situation
is very difficult," he said. "I ask our American and European partners: help us,
save Mariupol."
Planes appeal
Kyiv has urged the West to boost military assistance to the besieged country,
including warplanes, with President Volodymyr Zelensky pleading for Eastern
European neighbors to provide Russian-made planes that his pilots are trained to
fly. Several U.S. media reported Washington is working on a deal with Warsaw in
which Poland would send Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine in return for American
F-16 fighter jets. Putin meanwhile escalated warnings against NATO, threatening
a wider war if a no-fly zone is set up. While Zelensky criticized NATO for
ruling out the no-fly zone, Putin spoke of "colossal and catastrophic
consequences not only for Europe but also the whole world" if such a step was
taken. "Any movement in this direction will be considered by us as participation
in an armed conflict by that country," Putin said.
Hitting out at stiffening Western sanctions, the Russian leader said: "A lot of
what we're coming up against right now is a way of waging war against Russia.
"The sanctions against Russia are akin to a declaration of war. But thank God
we're not at that point yet."Putin also dismissed rumors that the Kremlin was
planning to declare martial law in Russia.
Cards cut
Visa and Mastercard both announced they will suspend operations in Russia, the
latest major American firms to join the business freeze-out of Moscow.
Mastercard said it made the decision over the "unprecedented nature of the
current conflict and the uncertain economic environment."
Visa meanwhile said that "effective immediately" it would "work with its clients
and partners within Russia to cease all Visa transactions over the coming days."
Visa and Mastercard had already announced that they were complying with U.S. and
international sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its attack. But
Russia's major banks -- including its largest lender Sberbank and the Russia
Central Bank -- downplayed the effect the cards' suspensions would have on their
clients. The war has already had serious global economic impacts, with the IMF
warning that its effects would be "all the more devastating" should the conflict
escalate. Russia's business and other contacts with the West have been steadily
cut. Moscow has suspended all flights by flagship carrier Aeroflot, effective
Tuesday.
Frenzied diplomacy
As frantic, top-level diplomatic talks continued, Zelensky announced on Sunday
that he spoke by phone with his US counterpart Joe Biden to discuss financial
support and sanctions against Russia. "The agenda included the issues of
security, financial support for Ukraine and the continuation of sanctions
against Russia," Zelensky tweeted. Hours earlier, the Ukrainian leader had
addressed U.S. lawmakers by video call, pleading for further funding and an
embargo on Russian oil imports. The American legislators promised an additional
$10 billion aid package, but the White House has so far ruled out an oil ban,
fearing it would ratchet up prices and hurt US consumers already stung by record
inflation. Weapons, ammunition and funds have poured into Ukraine from Western
allies as they seek to bolster Kyiv against Moscow's invasion. Washington last
week authorized $350 million of military equipment -- the largest such package
in U.S. history. While visiting Ukrainian refugees on the Polish border over the
weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington was seeking
$2.75 billion for the unfurling humanitarian crisis as nearly 1.4 million
civilians have fled. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made a surprise
visit to the Kremlin Saturday for three hours of talks -- Putin's first
face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader since the invasion began. The Israeli
leader later spoke with Zelensky. Kyiv had asked Israel -- which has strong
relations with both Russia and Ukraine -- to launch a dialogue with Moscow.
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's office said he is to launch an
international "plan of action" to ensure Russia's invasion of Ukraine fails,
including a flurry of diplomatic meetings next week.
Closer to Kyiv
Russian forces have been inching closer to the capital Kyiv in an assault that
has become ever-more indiscriminate -- and deadly. Working-class towns such as
Bucha and Irpin are in the line of fire, and air raids Friday broke many
people's resolve to stay. "They are bombing residential areas -- schools,
churches, big buildings, everything," said accountant Natalia Dydenko, glancing
back at the destruction she was leaving behind. Dozens of civilians have been
killed in Chernihiv. Those remaining live in craters or among ruins. "There were
corpses all over the ground," a man who gave his name only as Sergei told AFP,
as air raid sirens wailed. "They were queueing here for the pharmacy that's just
there, and they're all dead." AFP reporters saw scenes of devastation -- despite
Moscow's insistence it is not targeting civilian areas. A defiant Zelensky said
Saturday that Ukrainian forces were counterattacking around Kharkiv, the
country's second-largest city, inflicting "such losses on the invaders that they
have not seen even in their worst dream". Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was
equally defiant, saying, "Ukraine is bleeding, but Ukraine has not fallen, and
stands both feet on the ground... The myth of the unbeatable and almighty
Russian army is already ruined."
Besieged Ukrainian City Plans Evacuation Again, Refugee Total Hits 1.5 Million
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Authorities in Mariupol were seeking to evacuate some residents on Sunday under
a new ceasefire plan for the encircled Ukrainian city, as the United Nations
said Europe faced its fastest growing refugee crisis since World War Two. With
Russia's assault on Ukraine in its 11th day, the Mariupol city council said its
evacuation plan would run from noon (1000 GMT) to 9 p.m. (1900 GMT), after a
ceasefire plan he previous day earlier collapsed with each side blaming the
other. It was not immediately possible to verify if the evacuation had begun
from the coastal city, which has faced heavy bombardment for days, trapping
residents without heat, power and water. Kyiv has renewed its call for the West
to toughen sanctions beyond existing efforts that have hammered Russia's
economy, and has requested more weapons, including a plea for Russian-made
planes, to help it repel Russian forces.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Washington was considering how it
could backfill aircraft for Poland, if that country decided to supply its
warplanes to Ukraine. "I can't speak to a timeline but I can just say we're
looking at it very, very actively," Blinken said during a visit to Ukraine's
neighbor Moldova. Moscow calls the campaign it started on Feb. 24 a "special
military operation" and says it has no plans to occupy Ukraine, which was once
part of the Soviet Union under Moscow's sway but which has now turned West
seeking membership of NATO and the European Union. Moscow and Kyiv traded blame
over the collapse of Saturday's ceasefire to allow civilians to flee Mariupol
and another southern city, Volnovakha. "They’re destroying us," Mariupol mayor
Vadym Boychenko told Reuters in a video call, describing the plight of the city
of 400,000. "They will not even give us an opportunity to count the wounded and
the killed because the shelling does not stop."
Russia has repeatedly denied targeting civilian areas. Elsewhere in Ukraine,
police reported Russian shelling and air raids in the northeast Kharkiv region.
Moscow said it had struck and disabled Starokostiantyniv air base in west
Ukraine using high-precision weapons. 'We don’t want to leave'. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia was preparing to bombard another
southern city, Odessa. "Rockets against Odessa? This will be a war crime," he
said in a televised address. The World Health Organization said there had been
several attacks on Ukrainian healthcare facilities during the conflict.
The attacks caused multiple deaths and injuries, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom
Ghebreyesus said in a Twitter message, but gave no details. "Attacks on
healthcare facilities or workers breach medical neutrality and are violations of
international humanitarian law," he said. Ukrainians continued to spill into
Poland, Romania, Slovakia and elsewhere. UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Filippo Grandi said more than 1.5 million people had fled in the fastest growing
refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two. The agency has said the number
could hit 4 million by July.
"We don't want to leave Ukraine - we love it," said Olha Kucher, director of the
Zaporizhzhia Central Christian Orphanage, speaking in the western Ukrainian city
of Lviv as she evacuated children. "But unfortunately we must leave."
International mediation efforts have continued, although there has been no sign
of progress towards halting the conflict. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke
by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, Russia's RIA news
agency reported, without giving details. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
met Putin on Saturday and also spoke to Zelenskiy.
British military intelligence said on Sunday that Russian forces were targeting
populated areas in Ukraine, comparing the tactics to those Russia used in
Chechnya in 1999 and Syria in 2016. But it said Ukrainian resistance was slowing
the advance.
Rearming Ukraine
Putin says he wants a "demilitarized", "denazified" and neutral Ukraine and on
Saturday likened Western sanctions "to a declaration of war".
The West, which calls Putin's reasons for invading baseless, has ratcheted up
sanctions and scaled up effort to rearm Ukraine, sending in items ranging from
Stinger missiles to anti-tank weapons. But Washington and its NATO allies have
resisted Ukraine's appeals for a no-fly zone for fear that it would escalate the
conflict beyond Ukraine's borders. Western sanctions have pushed many companies
to exit investments in Russia, while some Russian banks have been shut out of a
global financial payment systems, driving down the rouble and forcing Moscow to
jack up interest rates. Tightening the screws further, US payment companies Visa
Inc and MasterCard Inc said they would suspend credit card operations in Russia.
Ukraine's military said more than 11,000 Russian troops had been killed so far
and 88 Russian aircraft shot down since the start of the invasion. Reuters could
not corroborate the claim.
Russia has not given regular updates on how many troops have been killed. More
than 350 civilians have been killed, according to the UN rights office on
Saturday, with hundreds more injured. Demonstrations were planned on Sunday in
Washington and elsewhere after jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny called for
worldwide protests on March 6 against the war. Hundreds of people were detained
in anti-war protests in 21 cities across Russia, according to an independent
Russian-based protest monitor.
U.S. 'Working Actively' on Deal for Polish Fighter Jets to
Ukraine
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the United States was
"working actively" on a deal with Poland to supply Ukraine with jets. "Can't
speak to a timeline but I can just say we're looking at it very, very actively,"
he told reporters during a visit to Moldova. Blinken said the U.S. was "in very
active conversation with Ukrainian officials... to get an up-to-the-minute
assessment of their needs." "As we get that assessment, we are working on seeing
what we and allies and partners can deliver" to bolster Kyiv's defenses against
the Russian invasion, he said. "We are looking actively now at the question of
airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able
to backfill should Poland decide to supply those planes." Multiple U.S. news
outlets reported Saturday that US officials told them of the possible deal, in
which Poland would send Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine in return for American
F-16 fighter jets. Since Russia invaded 10 days ago, the economic and
humanitarian toll of the war has spiraled and officials have reported hundreds
of civilians killed. Weapons, ammunition and funds have poured into Ukraine from
Western allies. "We are working with the Poles on this issue and consulting with
the rest of our NATO allies," a White House official was quoted as saying in
reports by the Wall Street Journal and NBC. Kyiv has urged the West to boost
military assistance to the besieged country, including warplanes, with President
Volodymyr Zelensky pleading for Eastern European neighbors to provide
Russian-made planes that his pilots are trained to fly. The Ukrainian leader had
addressed US lawmakers by video call Saturday, pleading for further funding and
an embargo on Russian oil imports. The Wall Street Journal's report cited two
people on the call, who said Zelensky requested fighter jets after Senate
minority leader Mitch McConnell asked the Ukrainian president what he needed
most. U.S. legislators promised an additional $10 billion aid package, but the
White House has so far ruled out an oil ban, fearing it would ratchet up prices
and hurt American consumers already stung by record inflation. The Journal said
U.S. officials mentioned a number of challenging practical questions, including
getting the planes to Ukraine, and that the deal would require White House
approval and congressional action. Washington last week authorized $350 million
of military equipment for Kyiv -- the largest such package in U.S. history.
Erdogan Urges Putin to Declare Ukraine Ceasefire, Make
Peace
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on
Sunday to declare a ceasefire in Ukraine, open humanitarian corridors and sign a
peace agreement, his office said. NATO member Turkey shares a maritime border
with Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and has good ties with both. Ankara has
called Russia's invasion unacceptable and offered to host talks, but has opposed
sanctions on Moscow, Reuters reported. In a statement after a one-hour phone
call, the Turkish presidency said Erdogan told Putin that Turkey was ready to
contribute to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
"President Erdogan, who said an immediate ceasefire will not only ease
humanitarian concerns in the region but also give the search for a political
solution an opportunity, renewed his call of 'let's pave the way for peace
together'," his office said. "Erdogan emphasized the importance of taking urgent
steps to achieve a ceasefire, open humanitarian corridors and sign a peace
agreement," it said. The Kremlin said Putin told Erdogan that Russia would only
halt its military operation if Ukraine stopped fighting and if Moscow's demand
were met, adding the operation was going to plan. Russia calls its assault a
"special military operation". It has uprooted more than 1.5 million people, in
what the United Nations says is the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe
since World War Two. Turkey has said it would be "naive" to expect results from
the Ukraine-Russia negotiations while the fighting continues. Turkey's defense
minister on Sunday said an urgent ceasefire was needed so Ankara could evacuate
its citizens from Ukraine. Erdogan, who has called Putin a "friend", had last
spoken to the Russian leader on Feb. 23, a day before Russia launched its
invasion. The call makes Erdogan the third NATO leader to speak to Putin since
his offensive, following the leaders of Germany and France. While forging close
ties with Russia on defense, trade and energy, and hosting millions of Russian
tourists every year, Turkey has also sold drones to Ukraine, angering Moscow,
and opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, as well as its 2014 annexation
of Crimea. Turkey has said it wants to bring together foreign ministers from
Ukraine and Russia for talks at a diplomacy forum next week in southern Turkey.
Both countries have welcomed the offer, but Ankara says it is unclear whether
they will be able to attend.
Talk of Russian Nuclear Escalation Is Brinkmanship, Says
UK’s Raab
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
British Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab described talk of the threat of
Russia using nuclear weapons in its invasion of Ukraine as brinkmanship and
rejected President Putin's statement that likened Western sanctions to a
declaration of war. A week ago Putin ordered his military command to put
Russia's deterrence forces - which include nuclear arms - on high alert, citing
what he called aggressive statements by NATO leaders and Western economic
sanctions against Moscow. On Sunday, Russian media reported Ukraine was close to
building a plutonium-based "dirty bomb" nuclear weapon, citing an unidentified
source and giving no evidence. "I think its rhetoric and brinkmanship," Raab
told Sky News when asked about a possible nuclear escalation by the Kremlin.
"(Putin's) got a track record as long as anyone's arm of misinformation and
propaganda ... this is a distraction from what the real issues are at hand -
which is that it's an illegal invasion and it is not going according to plan,"
Raab said. He warned the conflict could last for months, if not years, and when
asked whether a temporary ceasefire in parts of Ukraine would hold, said he was
skeptical about Russian promises. Moscow calls its actions a "special military
operation. It says it wants to "demilitarize" and "denazify" its pro-Western
neighbor and prevent Kyiv from joining NATO. Britain's Chief of Defense Staff
stressed that the UK had its own defenses and urged a calm response to any talk
of nuclear weapons. "We need to be very clear and we need to be calm and
responsible and not react to threats from President Putin," Tony Radakin, who is
head of Britain's armed forces, told reporters. "There's an imperative that it
doesn't escalate even in conventional terms, and it would be insane for this to
start a path towards a nuclear escalation." Raab rejected Putin's statement from
Saturday that likened the West's sanction's to a declaration of war."Sanctions
are not an act of war, international law is very clear about that," he said.
"Our sanctions are entirely both legally justified, but also proportionate to
what we're trying to deal with."Raab also called on China and India to help
increase diplomatic pressure on Russia."China has got a job here. They've got to
step up as well - this is a permanent member of Security Council - and India as
well. We need to expand the diplomatic pressure," Raab said.
Canada Urges Citizens to Leave Russia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Canada called Saturday on its nationals to avoid all travel to Russia because of
its invasion of Ukraine and on Canadians in Russia to leave the country. In an
update to its travel advice, the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
recommended that its nationals "avoid all travel to Russia due to the impacts of
the armed conflict with Ukraine.""If you are in Russia, you should leave while
commercial means are still available," the statement added. Ottawa had
previously advised its citizens to avoid nonessential travel to Russia, AFP
reported. In the travel advisory, the ministry said that sanctions on Moscow and
Russia's response "may have an important impact on the availability and the
provision of essential service. Flight availability is becoming extremely
limited."The ministry also noted that Russia had passed a law on March 4 that
"severely restricts free speech."The legislation punishes the publication of
what it calls "fake news" about its invasion with jail terms of up to 15 years.
Foreign journalists and other media workers in the country "may face
considerable risks," the advisory said. Ottawa urged Canadians in Russia to
refrain from discussing the invasion, participating in protests or sharing or
publishing information related to current events in Russia and Ukraine.
Canadians who wished to stay in Russia despite the travel advisory were warned
they might have to stay "longer than expected" and could be affected by
shortages of essential products and services.
They also ran the risk of being unable to use their bank cards, and "should not
depend on the Government of Canada to help you leave the country." Canada, which
has already levied many economic sanctions on Russia, "will continue to impose
punitive sanctions on Putin and the oligarchs" so that they understand their
"monumental error," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday, while
announcing a European trip. Trudeau is due to leave Ottawa on Sunday to travel
to London, Riga, Berlin and Warsaw to discuss support for Ukraine.
More than 1,000 People Detained at Anti-war Protests in
Russia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
More than 1,000 people were detained at protests on Sunday in 29 cities across
Russia against President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, according to an
independent Russian-based protest monitor. The OVD-Info protest monitoring group
said 1,015 people were detained at protests across Siberia and Russia's far
east. Opposition activists posted videos showing protests and arrests in cities
across Russia, Reuters said. Reuters was not able to independently verify the
information. Reuters was unable to reach spokespeople for Russia's interior
ministry. "The screws are being fully tightened - essentially we are witnessing
military censorship," Maria Kuznetsova, OVD-Info's spokeswoman, told Reuters by
telephone from Tbilisi. "We are seeing rather big protests today even in
Siberian cities where we only rarely saw such numbers of arrests," Kuznetsova
said. The interior ministry warned on Saturday that any attempt to hold
unauthorized protests would be prevented and the organizers held to account. A
video posted on social media showed a protester on a square in the far eastern
city of Khabarovsk shouting: "No to war - how are you not ashamed" before two
policemen detained him.
Police used loudspeakers to tell a small group of protesters in Khabarovsk:
"Respected citizens, you are taking part in an unsanctioned public event. We
demand you disperse." Reuters was not able to independently verify the post.
Russian state-controlled media was largely silent about the anti-war protests.
Russia's RIA news agency showed footage of what appeared to be supporters of the
Kremlin driving along the embankment in Moscow with Russian flags and displaying
the "Z" and "V" markings used by Russian forces on tanks in Ukraine. Patriarch
Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, said Russian values were being
tested by the West which he said offered only excessive consumption and the
illusion of freedom.
PUTIN RATINGS
Putin, Russia's paramount leader since 1999, ordered what he casts as a special
military operation to defend Russian-speaking communities against persecution in
Ukraine and to prevent the United States from using Ukraine to threaten Russia.
The West has called his arguments a baseless pretext for war and imposed
sanctions that aim to cripple the Russian economy. The United States, Britain
and some other NATO members have supplied arms to Ukraine. Jailed Kremlin critic
Alexei Navalny had called for protests on Sunday across Russia and the rest of
the world against the invasion launched by Russia on Feb. 24. About 2,000 people
attended an anti-war protest in Kazakhstan's biggest city Almaty, videos posted
on social media showed. Reuters was unable to independently verify the posts.
The crowd shouted slogans such as "No to war" and "Putin is a dickhead", while
waving Ukrainian flags. Activists put blue and yellow balloons in the hand of a
Lenin statue towering over the small square where the rally took place. "Because
of Putin, Russia now means war for many people," Navalny said on Friday. "That
is not right: it was Putin and not Russia that attacked Ukraine." Putin's
approval ratings have jumped in Russia since the invasion, according to
Moscow-based pollsters. Putin's rating rose 6 percentage points to 70% in the
week to Feb. 27, according to state pollster VsTIOM. The FOM pollster, which
provides research for the Kremlin, said Putin's rating had risen 7 percentage
points to 71% in the same week.
Egyptian-EU Talks Discuss Fight against Terrorism, Illegal
Immigration
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
Brussels on Saturday hosted Egyptian-European talks on boosting cooperation in
combating terrorism and illegal immigration, as well as coordination on Middle
East issues. The talks were held between Egypt’s Ambassador in Brussels Badr
Abdel Aty and Chairman of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs
David McAllister. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the
meeting discussed means of developing Egyptian-European cooperation ties in
different domains. The officials discussed cooperation between Egypt and the
European Union in energy given Cairo's position as a hub for energy production,
trade and distribution. The meeting also tackled Cairo’s regional role in
achieving security and stability in crises in the Middle East, mainly in Libya
and Syria, in addition to the Palestinian cause and the situation in the Sahel
region. The Egyptian statement quoted McAllister as praising Egypt's
constructive role in achieving regional security and stability, in addition to
Cairo’s efforts in combating terrorism and illegal immigration. The officials
addressed the ongoing political, economic and social modernization process
taking place in Egypt, notably in wake of the launch of the national strategy
for human rights and efforts to bolster education and health services. They
discussed arranging a visit by McAllister to Cairo as part of efforts to
strengthen cooperation between Egypt and the EU.
Moroccan Businessmen to Visit Israel Next Week
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 6 March, 2022
The General Confederation of Moroccan Enterprises is expected to send a
delegation of businessmen to Israel on a Royal Air Maroc flight that will
inaugurate direct flights between Casablanca and Tel Aviv on March 13. The
three-day visit is part of a series of trips between the two parties to sign
agreements and strengthen bilateral economic cooperation. Israel's Economy
Minister Orna Barbivai had visited Morocco earlier this year. The Moroccan
delegation will be led by Chakib Laalej, President of the General Confederation
of Moroccan Enterprises, i24NEWS reported. The visit was originally set for
December, but the outbreak of the omicron coronavirus variant led to its
postponement. Royal Air Maroc's first flight to Israel was set for Dec. 12,
2021, but it was postponed for the same reason. It has since been rescheduled to
March 13. Royal Air Maroc said it will operate four flights a week between
Casablanca and Tel Aviv and will then expand them to five. Morocco's delegation
is expected to explore investment opportunities in Israel. It will sign
cooperation agreements and establish partnerships between the General
Confederation of Moroccan Enterprises and its Israeli counterpart in several
fields. Morocco is home to the largest Jewish community in North Africa, with
around 3,000 people. Around 700,000 Jews of Moroccan descent reside in Israel.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
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March 06-07/2022
A Plan for Peace in Europe
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute/March 06/2022
[Putin] is now also demanding the nuclear disarming of Europe.
Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine,
he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If
further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can
to ensure his current aggression fails.
To halt Putin's broader ambitions, it is also essential that NATO keep the
Ukrainian army fighting and that includes financing the war effort and getting
lethal weapons and military equipment to Ukrainian forces.
Russia must be isolated and turned into an international pariah not just while
Putin's army is assaulting Ukraine but for as long as necessary. These actions
will inflict damage on us as well, as Russia retaliates with its own sanctions
and restrictions. The short term pain can be ameliorated in the medium term by
eliminating dependence on Russian energy, increasing gas supplies from North
Africa, the Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Also by reopening in the United
States the world's largest supply of energy, which President Joe Biden began
closing down his first day in office, and by fracking and building nuclear power
plants.
The development of our cyber defences, as well as offensive capabilities must be
accelerated urgently and intelligence services expanded to counter and inflict
severe damage to Russian espionage agencies.
Some argue that punitive Western moves will drive Russia into China's arms. It
is already there: Russia is the biggest single recipient of Chinese financial
support globally, and Putin and Xi have established a military alliance.
Where Putin demands that NATO pull back, it should push forward. Some may see
this as provocative, but it is in fact a sign of strength which will do more to
deter Putin than appeasing him.
[Putin] knows that NATO poses no military threat to Russia and that it is a
purely defensive alliance. If it is to restore the credibility it once had,
which Biden's Afghanistan debacle did much to undermine, NATO must regain its
strength — not only in military power but also the demonstrable political will
to use it.
As Israel often reminds us over Iran, if a leader threatens us with annihilation
we cannot afford to hope he is not serious. Had the world focused on getting rid
of Hitler in the 1930s rather than appeasing him, we may not have seen the
horror of a global war that killed 70 million people.
The urgency of a Western message of strength goes even beyond Russia. China's
President Xi has greater territorial ambitions than Putin, and they are being
played out today in every continent around the world. Xi's Ukraine is Taiwan,
and it may be that visiting catastrophe on Russia's dictator will deter his
friend in Beijing.
Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine,
he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If
further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can
to ensure his current aggression fails.
NATO's strategic objective should now be to bring down Russian President
Vladimir Putin and see him replaced by a less dangerous leader. If he fails,
harsh constraints are imposed on Russian oligarchs, and suffering is inflicted
on ordinary citizens by Western diplomatic and economic action; his current
adventure might cause him to self-destruct.
If that does not happen, Putin will remain a permanent threat to NATO, Europe
and the world. Russian law now allows him to hold onto power at least until
2036. He apparently aims to re-create the Soviet Union in a new form and restore
Russia's superpower status by pushing NATO back, regaining Moscow's dominion
over its eastern neighbours. He is now also demanding the nuclear disarming of
Europe.
Putin's next targets could be Moldova or the Baltic states which, like Ukraine,
he reportedly considers illegitimate and properly part of Russia's sphere. If
further suffering and bloodshed are to be avoided, the West must do all it can
to ensure his current aggression fails. At last we are seeing unity among NATO
countries, with unprecedented sanctions already beginning to bite and the
Russian economy heading towards freefall. To halt Putin's broader ambitions, it
is also essential that NATO keep the Ukrainian army fighting and that includes
financing the war effort and getting lethal weapons and military equipment to
Ukrainian forces.
In the event, as seems likely, that Putin does prevail in Ukraine, we should now
also be preparing to support a resistance movement against a potential Russian
army of occupation. That would include supplying weapons, intelligence and
surveillance, as well as offensive cyber capabilities, and sending in undeclared
advisors to help. Moscow should be driven into a quagmire in Ukraine, with a
stream of body bags heading back to Russia (rather than mysteriously
"disappeared" in the mobile crematoria that Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy says are ominously following behind Russian forces). It is not that we
want to see Russian conscripts killed, but heavy casualties would help deter
further aggression and destabilise Putin's regime.
The previous pattern in the West has been to impose sanctions and then allow
them to fade away to nothing when the situation settles down. That is what
happened in 2014, when Putin invaded Crimea, and that is what's happening with
Iran's aggression against Middle Eastern countries and its burgeoning nuclear
weapons programme. It must not happen with Putin. Western countries should make
it clear now that sanctions and other actions will be permanent. They should be
stepped up to include severing diplomatic relations and banning exports as well
as denying access to seaports, airspace and airports and excluding Russian teams
from sports competitions, and cultural and scientific events.
To intensify the pressure, some have suggested that all Russians could be banned
from entering Western nations and, going further, those who are already there
could be expelled. This would have far greater effect on ordinary Russians than
sanctions against a handful of distant oligarchs about whom they care nothing.
Russia's war of aggression is illegal under international law, and compounding
that illegality there are widespread reports of war crimes inside Ukraine, with
allegations of deliberate targeting of protected civilians. These crimes will
likely continue and increase. All such atrocities should be systematically
recorded, aiming to bring those responsible into the dock at the International
Court at the Hague, with Russian leaders indicted for crimes against humanity.
In short, Russia must be isolated and turned into an international pariah not
just while Putin's army is assaulting Ukraine but for as long as necessary.
These actions will inflict damage on us as well, as Russia retaliates with its
own sanctions and restrictions. The short term pain can be ameliorated in the
medium term by eliminating dependence on Russian energy, increasing gas supplies
from North Africa, the Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Also by reopening in the
United States the world's largest supply of energy, which President Joe Biden
began closing down his first day in office, and by fracking and building nuclear
power plants. Putin will also try to exact revenge against Western countries,
including cyber war and his trademark assassination programme. The development
of our cyber defences, as well as offensive capabilities must be accelerated
urgently and intelligence services expanded to counter and inflict severe damage
to Russian espionage agencies.
The Chinese Communist Party will help defray harm to Russia by providing
economic aid, and China is set to buy up energy supplies that can no longer go
into Europe. Some argue that punitive Western moves will drive Russia into
China's arms. It is already there: Russia is the biggest single recipient of
Chinese financial support globally, and Putin and Xi have established a military
alliance.
Meanwhile, NATO armies must be built up — as Germany has, remarkably, just
promised to do — and deployed in strength into northern and eastern European
countries that are in Putin's immediate line of fire. Britain, for example,
decided last year to drastically reduce its already meagre tank and infantry
units. Those cuts should not only be cancelled but reversed, with military
forces rebuilt towards the Cold War levels of the 1980s.
Where Putin demands that NATO pull back, it should push forward. Some may see
this as provocative, but it is in fact a sign of strength which will do more to
deter Putin than appeasing him. He knows his talk of threats to Russia from NATO
is nothing more than an excuse for his own territorial ambitions, motivated by
fear of proximate Western freedom and prosperity undermining his grip on power.
He knows that NATO poses no military threat to Russia and that it is a purely
defensive alliance. If it is to restore the credibility it once had, which
Biden's Afghanistan debacle did much to undermine, NATO must regain its strength
— not only in military power but also the demonstrable political will to use it.
The US and NATO may not be able or willing to directly bring Putin down; that
probably can more realistically be done from within. But as well as economic,
diplomatic and legal action against Russia and the individuals who are
responsible for this war, we should give maximum support and encouragement to
potential successors to Putin that we identify as reasonable and moderate.
The difficulties of this cannot be underestimated. Putin's chief opponent,
Alexei Navalny, whom Moscow's security services tried to murder with Novichok,
is in prison and his political movement outlawed. Dmitry Muratov, who won last
year's Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to safeguard freedom of expression in
Russia, recently lamented that no-one was able to stop Putin's aggression in
Ukraine. The few senior officials who urged restraint as Putin planned to invade
were quickly swiped aside. His generals are compliant and the Duma and
Federation Council are packed with his vassals.
Before the invasion, America and Britain published intelligence that woke up the
world to Putin's aggressive intentions even as he repeatedly denied them. We can
use the same technique to foment dissent by relentlessly exposing Putin's
criminality, corruption and kleptocracy to the Russian people. We can wage
endless targeted economic and legal warfare against Russian oligarchs,
pressuring them to turn on Putin and mount a palace coup.
Our message to the Russian people should be clear from the start: we will
neither accept nor allow Putin's belligerence in 21st Century Europe and we will
damage the country and its leaders until the danger to us is eliminated. At the
same time we should make it clear that when this happens we will be generous
towards the Russian people, warmly welcoming them back into the rules-based
order and encouraging them towards greater unity with Europe and the West if
they wish.
We should also be prepared to offer economic support, a modern-day Marshall
Plan. As our isolation of Russia will be costly, so will its rehabilitation.
Even such astronomic costs, however, are cheaper than the alternative, both in
dollars and human life. The stakes could not be higher. In recent days Russia
became the first country ever to attack a nuclear power plant, risking meltdown
and untold human and ecological disaster. Meanwhile Putin twice threatened the
West with nuclear weapons in the last week.
As Israel often reminds us over Iran, if a leader threatens us with annihilation
we cannot afford to hope he is not serious. Had the world focused on getting rid
of Hitler in the 1930s rather than appeasing him, we may not have seen the
horror of a global war that killed 70 million people.
The urgency of a Western message of strength goes even beyond Russia. China's
President Xi has greater territorial ambitions than Putin, and they are being
played out today in every continent around the world. Xi's Ukraine is Taiwan,
and it may be that visiting catastrophe on Russia's dictator will deter his
friend in Beijing.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of
the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer
and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Jack Roth Charitable
Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
Follow Richard Kemp on Twitter
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The New Cold War and its Effects on Our Region
Amr Moussa/Asharq Al Awsat/March 06/2022
The current developments on the international scene reflect a cold war situation
on its way to an escalation. It has long-term strategic dimensions, as well as
intense manifestations and direct repercussions represented in the “special
military operation” against Ukraine.
The operation is based on a political process that seeks to tear the country
apart, change its political system, and stop its Western orientation, unless
Kyiv succumbs to the demands of Russian national security and abandons its
hopes, which Moscow believes include plans to besiege it, weaken it, and
threaten its security and stability, by opening the doors of NATO and the
European Union and achieve Western political and military expansion towards all
of Eurasia.
The direct effects of the operation on Ukraine, the destruction of its cities,
the migration of tens of thousands of its residents, and the human losses it has
incurred, have paralyzed the country and curbed its productive capabilities in
terms of industry, trade, agriculture, tourism, and others. Moreover, dealings
in these sectors, which link Ukraine to many states and societies, including the
Middle East and the Arab world, and the resulting economic and financial losses,
require urgent efforts and alternatives that may not be easy to find.
We must also not forget the hundreds, rather thousands, of students and business
owners (especially in industries and small and medium enterprises), who used to
fill Ukraine’s universities, forums and markets and the process of transferring
them to other destinations… That in addition to the effects of sanctions against
Russia on the course of trade and investment in the developing world, including
most of the Arab world. Now we move to discuss another, no less important
dimension. It pertains to the escalation of a comprehensive strategic
confrontation between the whole West and Russia, reminiscent of the pre-wars
era, when European politicians attempted to ease tensions by making concessions
to the troublemaker, based on their own interests.
Perhaps Putin was intentionally pushing for this. His list of demands is long.
The Russian government summarized it in a memorandum requesting a number of
pledges and commitments related to NATO, Russian security, and the revival of
agreements that were forged in the 1990s to arrange security relations after the
fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Washington’s rejection of
these demands increased Moscow’s concern.
It seems that the United States - and the West around it - is not about to
repeat the appeasement policies led by British Prime Minister Chamberlain, prior
to the outbreak of World War II.
It is well known, of course, that many pledges were made in the aforementioned
agreements, which the West itself violated with regard to the inclusion of
Russia's European neighbors in the NATO, and the annexation of most of them to
the European Union.
Indeed, the three Baltic republics: Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, which became
members of NATO and the European Union, are not only close to or neighboring
Russia, but some of them are intertwined with the Russian lands (Moscow is
“silent” about it, just as the West is “silent” about the annexation of the
Crimea).
This indicates that the Ukrainian file is not only related from the Russian
point of view to its accession to Western alliances, but also to its interests
and geopolitical, security, cultural, ethnic and religious dimensions.
Many political analysts, who are well-informed of Russian-American and
Russian-European affairs, believe that America does not pay much attention to
Russian national considerations. Rather, it considers that Russia “is nothing
but Nigeria covered in snow, and therefore if things have grown in Russia’s
head, then they must be awakened, or the opportunity has come to awaken them,”
as one of the analysts say.
It is a major miscalculation that will lead to international complications with
a wide negative impact. Russia is a major nuclear state with interests that go
beyond its immediate neighborhood, and should not be underestimated. Some of the
analysts say that what is happening now is “a conspiracy hatched by the West to
trap and punish Putin, and isolate the Russia he heads in preparation for his
overthrow.”
While the Russian logic, in which many see merit, (note that more than 50
countries abstained or objected to the recent General Assembly resolution on
Ukraine) consider that Russian security is actually threatened by Atlantic
expansion, the American logic is based on the fact that Russia is a large
country indeed, but it is of the second degree, and has no right to propose, nor
to request, security arrangements of a global strategic nature, which place
restrictions on the movement of Western countries. As for the Russian missile
test in Cuba in 1962, which was less than 90 miles away from the US border and
which Russia believes America should remember in order understand the current
Russian concerns, the US response is reminiscent of late Colonel Gaddafi's
statement: “Who are you to tell us what to do or not!”
Based on the above, the Russian presence in the Middle East (its actual presence
in Syria and Libya, and its political relations with a number of Arab Gulf
states, Turkey, Iran and Israel) will be subject to a review.
In fact, the United States and the Western alliance have coexisted with Russian
presence and its Middle East policy, and sometimes considered it beneficial to
the West, especially with the coordination that took place with the United
States and Israel in Syria, the confrontation of terrorist organizations, and
within the framework of the US arrangements for Pivot to Asia.
Is it time for the western alliance to turn a cold shoulder to the Russian
presence and role in the Middle East? Does this not require additional Western
coordination with Turkey? And perhaps an Israeli role in this regional
framework?
Does this require expediting the conclusion of some understandings with Iran? I
say this while ruling out the possibility of any understanding being reached
with any Arab party on this strategic level, except perhaps for some pressure -
not understandings - aimed at dwarfing any Arab-Russian cooperation relations.
Then, we have to expect some change in the Russian situation in the
Mediterranean that directly affects its naval and air bases in Syria, as well as
its presence in Libya.
This also opens the door to assessing what might happen to the Russian presence
in the West African Sahel and Sahara region, which is directly adjacent to the
countries of the Maghreb. This is only part of what to be expected, yet it is
not simple, given Putin’s determination and capabilities that could confuse or
harm the Western plans.
Finally, I would like to focus on the following points:
The first concerns the biggest loser so far from the developments: the United
Nations, the international system and the principles of international law that
have been and are openly challenged by all sides.
The current turmoil in the role of the Security Council, and the inability to
maintain international peace and security (the two superpowers are permanent
members of the Security Council, enjoy the veto right, and are accused - or
mutually accused - of violating the international order, and of threatening
international peace and security). So what will be the fate of the small states,
including ours? And how will they solve their problems and face threats to their
sovereignty and independence?
Secondly, if the United Nations and the current international system in general
are the first losers from the course of the events in Ukraine, then the West is
the other loser.
In fact, if the international system that the West has established under the
leadership of the United States in 1945 collapses, the influence of Western
powers may fall with it, or weaken in the face of resistance that sees that this
system involves bias, harmful sanctions and double standards, in addition to a
failure to establish a new consensus that would be based on international
pluralism and globalization, which are now witnessing a clear regression.
However, this does not negate that the West - so far and in the short and
perhaps medium term - has achieved apparent gains, namely returning to unity,
affirming the leadership of the United States, and abandoning the policies of
reluctance and turmoil that have made America and the West lose a great deal of
credibility and respect.
The third loss is the return of the racist and daring rhetoric; rather, the
foolishness revealed by Western media and policy statements, about the
preference of the white refugee with blue eyes over any other refugee from
developing countries. It is possible to expect other similar policies that will
harm the interests of the developing world.
The fourth loss is embodied in the re-emergence of the expression: “You are
either with us or against us”, which is reminiscent of the words of John Foster
Dulles, the former US Secretary of State, who said that neutrality was
“immoral.”
Thus, is neutrality and the abstention to vote by some countries in favor of the
resolution submitted by Western countries to the General Assembly, a reason to
punish them as well?
On the Priorities of War and Impact of Major Surprises
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/March 06/2022
In contrast with the many myths about those soldiers’ heroism and magnanimity,
wars bring out the worst in people. In this sense, those with a military makeup
win the first battle, though not the last, by the mere fact of having dragged
those with a non-military makeup to war. The former drag the latter into their
favorite mode of behavior, their territory, just as those with a penchant for
violence win a round after having dragged those with an aversion to it into a
fistfight.
Those who are fond of violence are those for whom the worship of force is the
deepest source of thought and action, those whose authority is founded on force
and whose societies are organized around it. Although a fondness for violence
didn’t leave modern Western societies- especially colonial violence- and
although it was among the sturdiest bridges that modernity crossed to reach the
place it ended up in, today’s democratic regimes and societies are not founded
on this principle. Indeed, it would be more accurate to say that each instance
of them being dragged into wars weakened their democracy. The complete opposite
is true for the effect of force on regimes and societies that are not
democratic, as they find in force a source of solidity and strength, turning it
into a basis upon which their much-coveted “iron” unity is built.
Even when democracies win a war, as they often do, they are nonetheless playing
in an arena that is not their own or are being dragged into what is supposed to
be the arena of others. Thus, we note, for example, that the United States did
not enter World War II until after the “surprise” of Pearl Harbor, a “surprise”
that recurred, in different garments, with the attack of September 11, 2001.
Today, with the Russian war in Ukraine, Europe, which had been busy reducing its
military budgets, is the one taken by “surprise.”
It goes without saying that those not taken by surprise are the ones behind it.
As for being surprised, it stems from the non-military makeup of the surprised
and from their bet on the economy, business and their expansion prevailing, a
bet that is supported on a wide and varied array of grounds. The politicians may
be naive, frivolous, or just not up to the task in general, and there is an
abundance of them in any democratic regime, its parliament, and some of its
leaders. More important and profound is that the obscure and unfamiliar are
surprising in principle, and modern society, in particular, encourages people to
be surprised by what is unfamiliar and obscure. Indeed, with its linear
conception of time and delusions of modernity being able to control life, it is
even surprised by death being a reality that cannot be controlled.
Moreover, there is no agreed-upon framework for dealing with surprise, and the
tremor it creates in our consciousness and behavior brings out primitive
impulses that contemporary civilization thought it had turned the page on. What
looks like wrongdoing, or rather mistakes, in comparison to normal, peaceful
times, suddenly emerge. Thus we start asking: is it fathomable how the United
States treated the Japanese residing there as it was waging the great battle for
human values against Nazism, or that Muslims in the US were treated as they were
treated after 9/11? Is it fathomable today, that the defensive and moral war to
liberate Ukraine and safeguard its independence is accompanied by European and
US measures that include plenty of collective punishment and “witch-hunting?”
Yes, it is. Unfortunately, nothing else happens in war. In order to bring the
picture a little closer to home, we go back to the conditions that we all
underwent in the Gulf and the Arab world after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in
the summer of 1990. At the time, the invasion took the whole world by surprise.
It was a real blitzkrieg. It is indicative that the response to this blitzkrieg
took the form of a long and complex process- and thus by its nature surprised no
one- of building a military alliance to restore Kuwait’s freedom and
independence. However, in the meantime, in every Arab country without exception,
a tsunami of racism and counter-racism was hit, and many paid the price with
their lives, jobs or places of residence.
These incidents of racism are condemned strongly, and as a matter of course.
Nevertheless, this condemnation does not take precedence over condemning the
reason for the incidents, the flame that lit their fuse, Saddam Hussein’s
invasion of Kuwait. Furthermore, condemning them does not change the priorities,
at the fore of which is the fact that the battle of the Kuwaitis was truly a
just battle while Saddam’s war was an assault, an act of aggression.
The same is true for wars, or most of them: What happened to the Japanese and
Muslims in the United States is shameful, wrong and immoral, but it does not
diminish the righteousness of the US war against the Axis Powers or Bin Laden.
The Ukrainians and their allies are not immune to making mistakes, some of which
are grave and significant. However, the battle of the Ukrainians, along with the
West, against the Russian invasion is nonetheless just, righteous, and moral.
Those who are surprised are often in the right, even if they were not always,
and in each act, up to their cause. Those who do the surprising are often the
aggressor. The surprise, this time, might be of a nuclear nature that requires
assessing scales and responsibilities more precisely!
Putin, His Rat and Six Ways the War in Ukraine Could End
Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/March 06/2022
Nobody knows how Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine will end, but most
scenarios range from bad to worse. To grasp them, start by considering what is
indubitably the world’s most notorious rat.
That’s the one Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he once — as a boy in
what was then Leningrad — chased down a hallway. Cornered, the rat turned and
attacked him.
Why has Putin made sure that this anecdote keeps getting recycled among Russia
watchers the world over? The conventional wisdom is that it’s yet another of his
veiled threats. I’m that rat, except that I have nuclear claws, he implies. So
don’t corner me.
This vantage point — let’s call it the rat’s-eye view — must factor in all
possible scenarios. If the analysis were about what’s good for Russia, the
invasion would never have started at all, and could be ended at any time with a
negotiated settlement. After all, the attack has only hurt national interests,
by isolating the country internationally and impoverishing more of its
population. But Russia isn’t the relevant actor. The metaphorical rat in the
Kremlin is.
By all appearances, Putin is nowadays isolated and in his own mental world.
Unlike his Soviet predecessors, he has no politburo around him or other credible
checks and balances; he decides alone. And like other current and former tyrants
— Saddam Hussein springs to mind — he has reason to worry that his own political
failure is less likely to end in a tedious but placid retirement than in
something rather more violent and abrupt. Viewed from the rat’s perspective,
therefore, there are lots of dead-end hallways around. With that in mind, the
scenarios look as follows.
The Ukrainians win
A heroic Ukrainian defense that actually repels Russian forces remains
militarily unlikely, but is of course the preferred outcome for most of the
world. A traumatized but triumphant Ukraine would link up with a newly coherent
and determined European Union and accelerate its integration into the democratic
West. NATO would have a new sense of purpose. China, with its eye on Taiwan,
would think twice about causing its own trouble. But Putin would be in that
metaphorical corner. He’s been posing as Russia’s defender against an allegedly
aggressive West and redeemer of ethnic Russians and brother Slavs everywhere. A
Ukrainian victory would make all that propaganda untenable. He could not survive
the defeat politically and knows it. Therefore he won’t allow this scenario to
happen. Instead of withdrawing, he’ll follow one of three other paths.
A Russian Reign of Terror
He could escalate the attack dramatically — but still with only conventional
weapons. Basically, that means bombing Ukraine into submission. The loss of
civilian and military lives would be horrendous, but Putin wouldn’t care. He
would incorporate a seething and resentful Ukraine — either as a nominally
independent puppet state or a subdivision of Greater Russia — and maybe add
Belarus for good measure. To repress dissent at home and in Ukraine, Putin would
have to complete his transformation of Russia into a police state, eliminating
and persecuting the last remnants of free speech. His empire would become a
permanent pariah in the international community. The world would have a new Iron
Curtain.
Another Afghanistan
Or he could escalate less dramatically, sending just enough Russian military
might into Ukraine to avoid outright defeat. The country could then become what
Afghanistan was to Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev after 1979, or to the US and
its allies after 2001: a quagmire.
The cost in human terms would still be shocking — above all to Ukrainians, but
also to Russian soldiers and ordinary Russians suffering worse repression and
hardship from sanctions. Putin wouldn’t mind that, provided he thinks his place
in the Kremlin stays secure. But from the rat’s-eye view, a quagmire looks a lot
like getting stuck in that hallway corner indefinitely.
Escalate to de-escalate
If he is truly like the rat that attacked him, Putin will therefore at least
consider another — literally nuclear — option. It’s the one he’s already hinted
at. Claiming that NATO and the EU are cornering him by supporting Ukraine with
weapons and other wherewithal, he could launch one or more “limited” nuclear
strikes with so-called tactical (here meaning low-yield) warheads. He’d wager
that the West would not retaliate on behalf of Ukraine, because that would
trigger a nuclear exchange with bigger “strategic” weapons, ending in Mutual
Assured Destruction (MAD), as it was known during the Cold War. But like the
rat, he’d take the risk. Ukraine, like Japan in 1945, would have no choice but
to surrender. That’s why military wonks call this strategy “escalate to
de-escalate.” But the world would never be the same. The names Hiroshima and
Nagasaki would be joined by others on humanity’s list of doom. And yet Putin
could say that he got himself out of one particular hallway’s corner.
Another Russian Revolution
There are also more optimistic scenarios. Despite Putin’s curtain of propaganda
and disinformation, enough Russians understand the circumstances of his
unprovoked invasion, and the cataclysmic risks. They could revolt. This could
take the form of a broad-based movement centered around an opposition leader
like Alexey Navalny. Or it could be a coup or putsch from within the elite.
Neither kind of insurrection looks likely for now, unfortunately. Russians may
have noticed that the Belarusians next door have been heroically resisting their
dictator since August 2020, with no success but lots of brutal repression to
show for it. And any member of what remains of Putin’s inner circle who
contemplates a putsch will remember the fate of the conspirators around Claus
von Stauffenberg in 1944.
Nonetheless, a homegrown Russian revolution would be by far the best outcome.
The new regime in Moscow could blame the attack on Putin alone, which happens to
be true. It could therefore withdraw without looking weak. The international
community could welcome Russia back with open arms. The world, including Russia,
would become a better place.
China intervenes
A second-best but more plausible scenario involves Beijing. Officially, China
under President Xi Jinping is, if not Russia’s ally, at least its partner in
jointly staring down the American-led West. But China considers itself a rising
power and Russia a falling one. As Xi sees it, Putin is sometimes useful but
also a potential liability. In particular, China is deeply conflicted about
Putin’s attack because it violates another country’s national sovereignty, the
principle Xi would invoke if he ever swallowed Taiwan (which he considers a
Chinese province) and demanded that the US stay out. And China, which has a
small but fast-growing nuclear arsenal, certainly wouldn’t countenance the use
of tactical nukes and the resulting global chaos. For now, Xi’s ambivalence has
condemned Beijing to an unsustainable doublespeak. At the United Nations this
week, 141 countries voted to deplore Putin’s aggression. China could have joined
the four rogues (Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria) who voted with Russia
against the resolution. Instead, along with 34 other countries, it merely
abstained. If China decided to restrain Putin, it would have the clout. It could
withdraw the economic and diplomatic lifelines Moscow needs. At the same time it
could discreetly find secret trap doors at the end of hallways. After all, the
best way to deal with a cornered rat is usually to let it escape before it does
more harm.
Russians Are About to Learn Some German Lessons
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/March 06/2022
Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine will have momentous consequences for many —
above all for Ukrainians, those who are fleeing the country and those who have
stayed to fight off the invading army or to helplessly endure the devastation.
But the effect on Russians, too, will be enormous, whether or not we realize it
now. It’s time for we citizens of the aggressor state to try on the shoes of
post-World War II Germans.
The comparison will seem hyperbolic to many. The Nazis, after all, committed
genocide on a grand scale, leveled cities in many countries, set up death camps.
It is difficult for Putin to measure up to Hitler’s homicidal madness, hard as
he might try. Yet it is 2022, not the 1940s. Putin’s war crimes are instantly
documented on social media, and the global audience’s sensibilities have also
changed: No matter how limited your bombing of civilians might be, it’s
unforgivable from the moment the first missile targets a residential area.
Because of the abundance of evidence, Russia doesn’t even have to lose the war
for its people — and not just Putin personally — to be held responsible even in
lands far removed from Russia and Ukraine.
Many Russians, especially those leaving to escape the official war hysteria and
the economic and lifestyle consequences of unprecedented Western sanctions (no
more IKEA! No H&M!), don’t blame themselves for the war. Like the many Russian
celebrities who have posted “No to war” or “I’m for peace” on social networks
without taking the next step — calling for an end to Putin’s mad aggression —
they feel no personal responsibility for the leveled neighborhoods of Kharkiv or
Mariupol. “I’ve never voted for Putin,” I hear from them. “What do I have to do
with this? I’m against war!”
Everybody’s for peace, of course — even Putin says he is. Hitler spoke of his
“love of peace” and his intention to “establish peace on the eastern border” in
his speech to the Reichstag on Sept. 1, 1939. Individual responsibility,
however, hinges on what one has done to make war impossible — and collective
responsibility stems, no matter how we might hate this, from a polity’s
inability to avert the dictatorship that, as we see now, cannot but lead to war.
That’s the logic behind the tendency of many Ukrainians to blame the Russian
people, not just Putin. A fresh poll by Ukraine’s Rating Group shows 38% of
respondents say Russians as a nation share responsibility for the war; that goes
up to 42% in central Ukraine and 46% in the country’s west.
In 2014, after I’d just emigrated from Russia because of my opposition to the
Crimea annexation, I bristled when Ukrainians told me the move didn’t erase my
responsibility. I was sure I couldn’t have done anything to change the nature of
the Russian regime. “You go fight Putin,” I snarled back at my Ukrainian
accusers. “See where you get with that.” It fills me with shame to remember that
now, because of course they are fighting him as I write this — and we didn’t
really do so even when it wasn’t as dangerous as in the current climate of cruel
suppression.
When Hitler took power in 1933, he did it on the strength of a 44% national
vote, meaning that a majority of Germans didn’t back him. Just one year before,
he didn’t even have a third of the vote. It was not too late to stop him, and
too few Germans cared enough to do it.
This is true of us, too. We swallowed blatantly stolen elections (and our
protests in 2011 were, though impressively large, too vegetarian, too cute to
matter). We swallowed the gradual stifling of independent media. We shrugged off
massive corruption and the increasingly hysterical “patriotic education” of our
kids. We adapted as the government became the only meaningful economic player
and as the police state swelled, feeding on our helplessness and its own
impunity. We acquiesced, by and large, to the Crimea invasion; Russian
celebrities became adept at creative answers when Ukrainians asked them on
camera to whom Crimea really belonged. Meanwhile, too many of us enjoyed the
semblance of normality — the brands, the clubs, the skyscrapers, the tech, the
money. Now, it has all collapsed like the cardboard scenery it always was.
We turned into Putin’s passive serfs — or equally passive, powerless observers
outside the Russian borders, for those of us who left often rationalized and
normalized what was happening at home. I know I did. We made Putin culturally
possible, made him our own even as we distanced ourselves from him. We allowed
him to set the rules even as we clung to the illusion that we weren’t playing.
In other words, it doesn’t matter that I was against it all. I’m guilty of not
having done enough to assert my protest. I ran instead of fighting. That makes
me responsible. Those who run in panic from Russia now — and a lot of people I
know are catching planes to wherever they still fly or abandoning everything to
drive all night to the border — can’t outrun the shared responsibility either.
Once Hitler lost the war and the victorious allies began making it clear to
Germans, including civilians, that they shared responsibility for his
atrocities, many resisted, saying they’d never backed the Nazis, blessed their
atrocities or even knew about them. They suffered from what psychologists
Alexander and Margarete Mitscherlich termed an “inability to grieve” for the
victims of the Nazi crimes; that kind of grief was displaced by regret about
their own losses.
“Germans show no trace of a sense of responsibility, let alone guilt,” the
writer Klaus Mann wrote upon his postwar return to Germany from the US “They
fail to grasp that their current misery is the unavoidable result of what the
German people have done to the world in recent years.”
His bitter prediction in a letter to his father, Thomas Mann, was that “this
sorry, horrible nation will be physically and morally maimed and crippled for
generations.” He was right in a way — the symptoms of the disfigurement aren’t
all gone even now. We should take heed — I see the same symptoms in many
Russians I read or talk to.
The payback doesn’t come, for those who stayed, in the form of an imported
alcohol shortage, an ATM empty of euros or a credit card that no longer works
because the issuing bank has been taken off the SWIFT transaction messaging
system. Many Russians still remember what near-autarky feels like. Soviet habits
will come back quickly to those who decided to stick around in Putinland. And
perhaps some signs of normalcy will return after the war, as many of those who
stayed, or intend to return, hope.
Nor does the payback come, for those who left, in the shape of the inevitable
microaggressions, the graffiti on the windows of a bilingual school in Berlin,
the new forms of bullying Russian kids have to endure from classmates whose
parents discuss the news with them. There likely won't be any serious 20th
century-style blowback — no mass expulsions, no internment camps. Even as the
West confronts Russia, its leaders make sure not to blame Russians as a people —
it’s especially important for the Germans, who have been on the receiving end of
similar attitudes themselves for decades.
“I know how hard this situation is on the citizens of our country who were born
in Ukraine or in Russia,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said last week. “So we
won't let this conflict between Putin and the free world open old wounds or lead
to new deformations.”
Besides, for most people not directly affected by war crimes, the negative image
of the nation that has committed them fades relatively quickly. A study of
attitudes toward Germans in New Zealand found that negative sentiment toward
them peaked in the first post-war years as the horrors of the concentration
camps were widely reported — but sank to “indifference levels” by 1953. In this
era of short attention spans, Russians will likely no longer be pariahs on an
everyday level a year or two after the war ends, no matter who wins it in the
military sense. Only in Ukraine will the attitude persist: The ripped-up cities
and dead soldiers will not be forgotten for generations.
The true payback comes in the form of having to start over — and not from
scratch, but from a mountain of debris left over from our efforts to build a new
country after the fall of communism. Everything we’ve done since the heady days
of 1991, when walls were falling and the world seemed ready to embrace us, has
led us to this — the missiles embedded in Kharkiv pavements, the explosions
booming through the empty Kyiv streets, the refugee trains carrying misery
westward.
Where does one go from the top of that mountain of rubble? I don’t have a good
answer. All I can do is hum to myself Bertolt Brecht and Hans Eisler’s
Kinderhymne, the song many Germans once wanted as the reunited country’s hymn.
Notwithstanding Brecht’s unrepentant communism, it’s a very post-Putin song for
us Russians to sing, hopeful
...that the people give up flinching
At the crimes which we evoke
And hold out their hand in friendship
As they do to other folk.
And because we'll make it better
Let us guard and love our home
Love it as our dearest country
As the others love their own.
How Zelensky used social media to his advantage
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/March 06/2022
It is generally acknowledged that following the news on social media has become
more important, more popular and more influential than watching television news
networks, which we always used to use to find out what was happening in the
world. The Ukraine-Russia crisis has proven the validity of this theory beyond
any doubt.
This justifies the fact that world leaders are turning to social media to convey
their messages to their people in a simple manner on a platform that is followed
by different age groups around the globe.
Before this conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was barely known as
a politician outside of his country; rather, he was the actor who became a
president twice: Once on TV and once in real life.
Zelensky, as an actor, had a large social media following prior to his
presidential bid, making it easier for his campaign to communicate and appeal to
Ukrainian voters. In 2019, he won 73.2 percent of the vote in a runoff contest
to beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko to the presidency.
Since the Russian invasion of his country, how has this inexperienced politician
been able to get so much support from the world’s people? And how did he succeed
in mobilizing such great help for the Ukrainian people, government and army?
Since the first day of the crisis, social media has helped the Ukrainians
internationalize their cause and motivate European countries and the US to do
everything they can to support their resistance.
Zelensky has emerged as a global hero. He set the example of a true leader when
he rejected an American offer to evacuate him and his family to a safer
location, saying: “I need ammunition, not a ride.” The New York Times said this
phrase “will most likely go down in Ukrainian history, whether he survives this
onslaught or not.”
This position brought to mind how Afghan President Ashraf Ghani last year fled
the country when Taliban forces reached the outskirts of Kabul, leaving his army
without leadership and encouraging troops to quickly give up. Ghani’s decision
prompted the Americans and the wider Western community to wonder about the
benefits of training the Afghanistan army and arming it, spending so much money,
if forcing its surrender was that simple.
Zelensky understands very well the importance and influence of social media. He
began flooding platforms with simple, impassioned and highly effective speeches,
while also posting photos and videos of him and his government in the devastated
streets of the capital, Kyiv, to deny all reports that he had fled the city or
sought refuge in a neighboring country.
The Ukrainian leader knew how important it would be to win the sympathy and
support of the world’s people.
His social media following has significantly increased during the war. He has
used his channels to provide continuous updates and as a platform to publicly
address world leaders. At the time of writing, Zelensky has 14.1 million
followers on Instagram and 4.7 million Twitter followers.
The Ukrainian leader knew how important it would be to win the sympathy and
support of the world’s people. He understands the importance of public opinions
and poll numbers in the Western world. Therefore, he speaks to the people,
especially the younger generations that criticize their rulers for sending young
people into wars they do not understand, while keeping their own children at
home.
Millions of people subsequently took to the streets in many parts of the world
to demand their rulers provide humanitarian and military aid to support the
Ukrainian government and people. Zelensky has won the public opinion battle and
succeeded in getting help. At the same time, he has inspired his fellow
Ukrainians to defend their land just like their president.
I would say Zelensky has cleverly used social media platforms to aid his
country's cause. Without his media strategy, the situation could be far worse
for Ukraine.
*Dalia Al-Aqidi is Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy.Twitter:
@DaliaAlAqidi