English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 01/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.march01.22.htm
News
Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
‘When you are praying, do not heap up empty phrases as the Gentiles do; for they
think that they will be heard because of their many words. Do not be like them.
Matthew 06/05-15/”Whenever you pray, do not be like the
hypocrites; for they love to stand and pray in the synagogues and at the street
corners, so that they may be seen by others. Truly I tell you, they have
received their reward. But whenever you pray, go into your room and shut the
door and pray to your Father who is in secret; and your Father who sees in
secret will reward you. ‘When you are praying, do not heap up empty phrases as
the Gentiles do; for they think that they will be heard because of their many
words. Do not be like them, for your Father knows what you need before you ask
him. ‘Pray then in this way: Our Father in heaven, hallowed be your name. Your
kingdom come. Your will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day
our daily bread. And forgive us our debts, as we also have forgiven our debtors.
And do not bring us to the time of trial, but rescue us from the evil one. For
if you forgive others their trespasses, your heavenly Father will also forgive
you; but if you do not forgive others, neither will your Father forgive your
trespasses.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on February 28/March 01/2022
What Are The Religious Concepts Of The Ash Monday/Elias Bejjani/February
28/2022
President Aoun meets Iranian Minister of Culture: The success of Vienna
negotiations is a sign of peace for the whole region
President Aoun signs decree to refer 2022 general budget to Parliament
Berri receives Iranian Minister of Culture and IMF delegation, discusses local
affairs with Minister of Economy
Mikati meets Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, National
Anti-Corruption Commission, MP Chehayeb, former Minister Khoury
Boujikian, Kalenzi discuss stages of UNIDO programs’ implementation
Paris, Riyadh Agree to Fund Projects to Assist Lebanese People
Derian Takes Swipe at Hezbollah: Nothing Left in Lebanon but the Militia,
Ruinous Ruling Class
Judge Aoun Questions Chairmen of Bank of Beirut, Bank Audi
Raad: If We're Not Drilling for Gas, Israel Won't be Able to Do So
Lázaro Takes Up Duties as UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander
Russian Ambassador Says Lebanese Statement Won't Affect Ties
Lebanon to Send Planes to Poland to Help Nationals Trapped in Ukraine
Military Court Releases Two Detainees Suspected of Spying for Israel
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 28/March 01/2022
Moscow, Kyiv Hold Talks in Belarus, Plan 'Second Round'
Russian Forces Seize Two Cities in Ukraine, Interfax Says, as Ceasefire Talks
Begin
Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine May Supercharge Nuclear Proliferation
Russia Expelled from World Cup, Clubs Banned from Int'l Competitions
Macron Urges Putin to Spare Ukrainian Civilians
EU Dampens Ukraine Plea for 'Immediate' Membership
Race and Religion Influences Treatment of Refugees in Europe
Switzerland Adopts EU Sanctions against Russia
Russian Central Bank Moves to Stem Plunge in Ruble
UK Says Sanctions Intended 'to Bring Down Putin Regime'
Isolated Russia Defends Ukraine War at U.N. General Assembly
China Tells U.N. 'Nothing Can be Gained' from a new Cold War
Iran Says 3 Key Issues Remain Unresolved in Vienna Nuclear Talks
Divisions in Iran over the Impact of Ukraine Crisis on Vienna Talks
Canada sending additional $25M military aid to support Ukraine
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 28/March 01/2022
As the Iron Curtain Falls on Russia, Putin Has No Exit Strategy from His
Predicament/Raghida Dergham/The National/March 01/2022
Biden's Political Myopia Endangering Europe: Allow the EastMed Pipeline/Burak
Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 28, 2022
Erdogan Moves to Censor Western Media But not Russian Propaganda/Aykan Erdemir/Policy
Brief/February 28/2022
Germany at Critical Juncture amid Ukraine War/Daniel Gerlach/Asharq Al-Awsat/February
28/2022
Russia-Ukraine: Every Imperial Resurrection is a Costly Illusion/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq
Al-Awsat/February 28/2022
America between Analysis and Emotion/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/February
28/2022
on February 28/March 01/2022
What Are The Religious Concepts Of
The Ash Monday/مفاهيم اثنين الرماد الإيمانية
Elias Bejjani/February 28/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/72716/elias-bejjani-what-is-the-ash-monday/
Ash Monday is the first day of Lent and It is a moveable feast, falling on a
different date each year because it is dependent on the date of Easter. It
derives its name from the practice of placing ashes on the foreheads of
adherents as a sign of mourning and repentance to God.
On The Ash Monday the priest ceremonially marks with wet ashes on the
worshippers’ foreheads a visible cross while saying “Remember that you are dust,
and to dust you shall return (genesis03/19)”.
Worshippers are reminded of their sinfulness and mortality and thus, implicitly,
of their need to repent in time.
Ash Monday (Greek: Καθαρά Δευτέρα), is also known as Clean and Pure Monday.
The common term for this day, refers to the leaving behind of sinful attitudes
and non-fasting foods.
Our Maronite Catholic Church is notable amongst the Eastern rites employing the
use of ashes on this day.
(In the Western Catholic Churches this day falls on Wednesday and accordingly it
is called the “Ash Wednesday”)
Ash Monday is a Christian holy day of prayer, fasting, contemplating of
transgressions and repentance.
Ash Monday is a reminder that we should begin Lent with good intentions and a
desire to clean our spiritual house. It is a day of strict fasting including
abstinence not only from meat but from eggs and dairy products as well.
Liturgically, Ash Monday—and thus Lent itself—begins on the preceding (Sunday)
night, at a special service called Forgiveness Vespers, which culminates with
the Ceremony of Mutual Forgiveness, at which all present will bow down before
one another and ask forgiveness. In this way, the faithful begin Lent with a
clean conscience, with forgiveness, and with renewed Christian love.
The entire first week of Great Lent is often referred to as “Clean Week”, and it
is customary to go to Confession during this week, and to clean the house
thoroughly.
The Holy Bible stresses the conduct of humility and not bragging for not only
during the fasting period, but every day and around the clock.
It is worth mentioning that Ashes were used in ancient times to express grief.
When Tamar was raped by her half-brother, “she sprinkled ashes on her head, tore
her robe, and with her face buried in her hands went away crying” (2 Samuel
13:19).
Examples of the Ash practices among Jews are found in several other books of the
Bible, including Numbers 19:9, 19:17, Jonah 3:6, Book of Esther 4:1, and Hebrews
9:13.
Jesus is quoted as speaking of the Ash practice in Matthew 11:21 and Luke 10:13:
“If the mighty works done in you had been done in Tyre and Sidon, they would
have repented long ago in sackcloth and ashes.”
Below are the Maronite Church Readings On The Ash Monday
Ash Monday/You are dust, and to dust you shall return
Genesis 03/03/19 By the sweat of your face you shall eat bread, till you return
to the ground, for out of it you were taken; for you are dust, and to dust you
shall return
Fasting/Lay Up Treasures in Heaven
Matthew 06/1621/And when you fast, do not look gloomy like the hypocrites, for
they disfigure their faces that their fasting may be seen by others. Truly, I
say to you, they have received their reward. But when you fast, anoint your head
and wash your face, that your fasting may not be seen by others but by your
Father who is in secret. And your Father who sees in secret will reward you. “Do
not lay up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy and
where thieves break in and steal, but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven,
where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and
steal. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.
We implore you on behalf of Christ, be reconciled to God
02 Corinthians 05/20-21/Therefore, we are ambassadors for Christ, God making his
appeal through us. We implore you on behalf of Christ, be reconciled to God. For
our sake he made him to be sin who knew no sin, so that in him we might become
the righteousness of God.
02 Corinthians 06/01-07/Working together with him, then, we appeal to you not to
receive the grace of God in vain. For he says, “In a favorable time I listened
to you, and in a day of salvation I have helped you.”Behold, now is the
favorable time; behold, now is the day of salvation. We put no obstacle in
anyone’s way, so that no fault may be found with our ministry, but as servants
of God we commend ourselves in every way: by great endurance, in afflictions,
hardships, calamities, beatings, imprisonments, riots, labors, sleepless nights,
hunger; by purity, knowledge, patience, kindness, the Holy Spirit, genuine love;
by truthful speech, and the power of God; with the weapons of righteousness for
the right hand and for the left;
N.B: The above piece was first published in year 2000/It is republished with
Minor changes
President Aoun meets Iranian Minister of Culture: The
success of Vienna negotiations is a sign of peace for the whole region
NNA/Monday, 28 February, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted the importance of peace
between peoples, “Which guarantees them comfort and a happy life”. The President
also expressed his hope for the success of Vienna negotiations “As a sign not
only for Iran, but for the whole region”.Positions of the President came while
meeting Iranian Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister, Mohammed Mahdi Ismaili,
in the presence of Lebanese Culture Minister, Judge Mohammed Wissam Mortada.
Minister Ismaili is visiting Lebanon at the head of a delegation to open the
“Iran Cultural Week in Lebanon”. The delegation was accompanied by the Iranian
Ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammed Jalal Firouzania.
At the beginning, Minister Ismaili thanked President Aoun for receiving him, and
conveyed the greetings of the Iranian President, Ibrahim Raaisi, and his wishes
for good health. Minister Ismaili emphasized that Iran “Looks with much
appreciation at the principled, pivotal and firm positions of President Aoun.
These positions gave the Lebanese Republic this unique position”.“Throughout
your political career, you exerted all your strength to preserve the unity of
Lebanon’s government and people. And you were able to crown your career with
success” Minister Ismaili indicated. Moreover, Ismaili affirmed that the new
Iranian Government has an open and constructive foreign policy based on
establishing the best bridges of trust, convergence and dialogue with the
countries of the region in general and the friendly and brotherly countries in
specific. The Iranian Minister also expressed his belief that strengthening the
bonds of cooperation and constructive convergence between the countries of the
region secures security and stability on one hand and also enriches it and keeps
it away from the interference of foreign countries on the other.
Minister Ismaili then presented the impact of the sanctions imposed on Iran;
Ismaili referred to the successes which Iran had achieved, especially in
confronting its effects and in combating the Corona epidemic, stating that the
Vienna talks are proceeding positively, which could help in reaching a positive
and constructive agreement.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran insists that the agreement be fair, just, final,
permanent and continuous in a way that ensures that it will not be cancelled
with the change of political administrations and governance in the United
States, which will reflect positively on all the countries and peoples of the
region” Ismaili continued.
Finally, Minister Ismaili emphasized that his visit today indicates Iran’s
intention to strengthen brotherly relations with Lebanon in all fields,
especially artistically, culturally and intellectually. “There are artistic,
musical and cultural groups that will introduce the Lebanese people to the
latest artistic and cultural products in Iran”.
Ismaili stressed that the Iranians extend a hand of convergence and cooperation
with Lebanon and are fully prepared to strengthen and consolidate bilateral
relations in all fields, especially in light of the advanced capabilities of the
Islamic Republic in the fields of artistic and cultural productions, which it
can put at Lebanon's disposal.
The Iranian Minister expressed his country’s readiness to initiate a series of
joint productions, whether in the field of cinema, publishing houses, or in the
fields of art and music, hoping that in the near future Iran would be able to
host the Lebanese cultural week in the capital, Tehran, or in one of the major
Iranian cities, “So that the Iranian people would be able to learn about
cultural innovations in Lebanese art”.
President Aoun:
For his part, the President welcomed the delegation, and expressed Lebanon’s
appreciation for Iran, “Which was able to face the difficult circumstances it
went through and was able, despite the sanctions and boycotts imposed on it, to
develop its industries without stinging its people with anything, or exploiting
those circumstances to record creativity in many fields”.
President Aoun also stressed Lebanon’s desire to maintain the best relations
with Iran, pointing to his follow-up to the details of the talks in Vienna.
President Aoun expressed his hope for the success of negotiations as “A sign of
peace not only for Iran, but for the entire region in a way that guarantees the
comfort of its peoples and their happy life”.
In conclusion, President Aoun expressed his hope that “Lebanon will be able to
get out of the current economic crisis soon”, and conveyed Minister Ismaili his
greetings to the Iranian President,Ibrahim Raaisi. -- Presidency Press Office
President Aoun signs decree to refer 2022 general budget to
Parliament
NNA/Monday, 28 February, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed Decree No. 8877, dated
February 28, 2022. The decree aims to refer the 2022 draft budget and
supplementary budgets to the Parliament.
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, and Finance Minister, Youssef Khalil, also signed
the decree.
Former Minister Atallah:
The President met former Minister, Ghassan Atallah, and deliberated with him
recent political developments.
The meeting also tackled establishing the Mega Center, where Atallah stated that
the creation of such centers makes it easier for the Lebanese to carry out their
electoral duties without bearing the hardship of moving from their places of
residence to remote polling places. “This achieves a voter turnout especially in
these difficult economic and financial conditions which Lebanon is witnessing”
Atallah said.
Moreover, Minister Atallah informed President Aoun about the winning of two
innovators from the Shouf region, Rachel Njeim from Maaser Al-Shouf and Hiba
Rajha from Deir Dorit, the “L’Oreal-UNESCO for Women in Science” prize, the
first for her research on the contribution of NETosis to kidney disease in
diabetic patients, and the second for her research about raising the value of
food waste by including the polyphenols contained in grape skins and their
secondary particles encapsulation in various cosmetics.
President Aoun congratulated both Njeim and Rajha for their achievement, and
praised the Lebanese energies both at home and abroad.
Delegation of the Choueiry Basilian Order:
President Aoun received the General President of the Basilian Choueiry
Congregation, Archimandrite Bernard Touma, at the head of a delegation that
included the Director General, Father Dimitri Fayyad, and the head of the Saint
Anthony Al-Qarqafi Monastery in Kfarshima, Father Johnny Saadeh, and Father
Theodor Nasr.
MP Salim Aoun also attended the meeting.
During the meeting, the general conditions and the pastoral, social and
humanitarian activities carried out by the Basilian Choueiry Congregation were
presented to face the current economic conditions. The delegation also thanked
President Aoun for his condolences on the death of the lamented Dean of the
Order, Archimandrite Semaan Abdel Ahad, and granting him a high medal in
appreciation of his contributions.
Family of the Late Sami Clark:
The President met a delegation from the family of the late artist, Sami Clark,
in the presence of MP, Elias Bou Saab.
The delegation included: Sami Clark’s wife, Stella Hobeika, his son, Sami
Hobeika, his daughter, Mrs. Sandra Hobeika Zeyoun, Dhour Chweir Mayor, Habib
Moujaes, Messrs. Nehme Moujaes, Samir Moujaes, Dr. Camille Nassar and Mr. Johnny
Hobeika.
The delegation thanked President Aoun for sympathizing with the family and
awarding late Sami Clark the National Cedar Order of the (Commander Rank) in
appreciation of his artistic and cultural contributions.
For his part, the President reiterated his regret for the absence of Sami Clark,
and noted the achievements he made in the artistic and cultural fields inside
and outside Lebanon, in enriching the Lebanese Art Library with many songs,
especially national ones, the result of which earned him several international
awards that dedicated Lebanon’s presence in international and regional
festivals.—Presidency Press Office
Berri receives Iranian Minister of Culture and IMF
delegation, discusses local affairs with Minister of Economy
NNA/Monday, 28 February, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday welcomed at his Ain al-Tineh residence,
Iranian Minister of Culture and Guidance, Mahdi Esmaili, in the presence of
Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon, Muhammad Jalal Ferozania.Berri also welcomed the
newly appointed Ambassador of the Republic of Cote d'Ivoire to Lebanon,
Christophe Kwako, who paid him a protocol visit upon assuming his new duties in
Lebanon. The pair broached the country’s general situation, as well as bilateral
relations between both countries. Berri then met with Economy Minister, Amin
Salam, with whom he discussed the latest developments, economic conditions, and
food security.On emerging, Salam said that he had met with Berri to “thank him
for his support to the great work that was accomplished last week on the
competition law, which falls within the context of the Ministry of Economy and
Trade’s work.”Salam said that he had also briefed Berri on the issue of consumer
protection. “We are in constant contact with the House Speaker in terms of
protecting citizens from all kinds of exploitation, monopoly, and fraud through
the Consumer Protection Directorate,” Salam affirmed. “The other matter that
I’ve reassured Speaker Berri about was that of wheat, which is a food security
issue par excellence. I’ve reassured the House Speaker that we are following up
on this issue and, God willing, there will be no shortage of bread or wheat in
Lebanon,” Salam said, adding that Berri has stressed the importance of clamping
down on those who seek to take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian war to
manipulate the citizens’ livelihood and consequently tamper with the prices of
wheat. Berri separately welcomed head of the International Monetary Fund's
mission to Lebanon, Ernesto Ramirez-Rigo, who visited him with an accompanying
delegation.
The stages of dialogue between Lebanon and the Fund were presented, as well as
the Capital Control Law. The meeting emphasized that the law should preserve the
rights of depositors as a top priority.
Mikati meets Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic
Guidance, National Anti-Corruption Commission, MP Chehayeb, former Minister
Khoury
NNA/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday held a meeting with the National
Anti-Corruption Commission, headed by Judge Claude Karam, following its new
appointment, in the presence of the Secretary-General of the Council of
Ministers, Judge Mahmoud Makieh.
During the meeting, Premier Mikati affirmed his support for the Commission's
work in implementing the laws, and stressed on providing the necessary
facilities for the Commission’s work progress. On the other hand, Premier Mikati
welcomed at the Grand Serail Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance,
Mohammad-Mehdi Esmaeili, heading a delegation, In the presence of Minister of
Culture, Judge Mohammed Wissam Al-Murtada. Moreover, Mikati met with former
Minister, MP Akram Chehayeb, with discussions reportedly touching on the issue
of re-operating the Naameh plant for the production of electric power.
The PM later met with former Economy Minister Raed Khoury.
Boujikian, Kalenzi discuss stages of UNIDO programs’
implementation
NNA/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Minister of Industry, George Boujikian, on Monday held a work meeting with
United Nations Industrial Development Organization’s (UNIDO) representative,
Emmanuel Kalenzi.
Talks reportedly focused on the programs implemented between Lebanon’s Ministry
of Industry and UNIDO for the benefit of the industrial sector in various
regions. It also discussed the mechanisms followed and the stages of
implementation according to the specified time. It is to note that the
aforementioned programs seek to promote job creation and creativity in the
agro-industrial sector in Lebanon, technology transfer and skills training,
creating sustainable livelihoods for communities affected by the influx of
refugees in North Lebanon, improving employment opportunities in the furniture
industry, ensure postgraduate programs with Saint Joseph University and a
production sector development program, transform the private sector to a green
economy, strengthen women’s economic capabilities in sustainable industrial
programmes, reduce energy use, and rely on alternative energy sources.
Paris, Riyadh Agree to Fund Projects to Assist Lebanese
People
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
France and Saudi Arabia on Monday agreed to fund humanitarian projects aimed at
assisting the Lebanese people, during a Paris meeting between their two foreign
ministers, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Prince Faisal bin Farhan. “As per the
directions of the two countries’ leaderships, the discussions session witnessed
follow-up on the bilateral coordination between the kingdom and France over the
developments in Lebanon and the difficult situations that the Lebanese people
are going through,” a statement said. “It has been agreed to fund several
primary humanitarian projects to assist the Lebanese people, as a first step of
joint action between KSA and France to offer assistance in this regard,” the
statement added. It said that assistance will be offered to a number of
hospitals and primary care health centers as well as to some educational
institutions and NGOs that distribute infant milk and food to the most
vulnerable segments of the population.
Derian Takes Swipe at Hezbollah: Nothing Left in Lebanon but the Militia,
Ruinous Ruling Class
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Lebanon's Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif al-Derian slammed on Sunday the
Hezbollah party, without naming, accusing it of "destroying everything the
Lebanese have accomplished in a century.""Nothing is left in Lebanon but the
militia and the ruling class that has terribly ruined the state, society and
Lebanon's relations Arab and international relations," he said in an address to
the people on the occasion of Isra and Miraj. "Religious occasions should be
joyous ones," he said, "But in Lebanon, we no longer have joy. Where has it all
gone?"He blamed the misery on "destructive campaigns carried out in broad
daylight" that included the "occupation of Beirut, assassination of people and
looting of billions of dollars in public funds" that directly led to the
collapse of banks and the freezing of the depositors' savings. Lebanon's ties
with its Arab brothers underlines the country's Arab identity, Derian added. Its
Arab identity and belonging are stipulated in the constitution and Taif Accord.
"There can be no dignified life in Lebanon without its Arab identity no matter
how hard the saboteurs try to change this," he stressed. He also congratulated
Saudi Arabia on the occasion of its Founding Day, hailing the economic reforms
it is undertaking, under the leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as part of
Vision 2030. Derian also addressed the May parliamentary elections, saying
constitutional institutions defend the people's interests. He lamented, however,
how elections in recent years have done little to change the reality in Lebanon.
"We reject the continuation of the status quo and call for a heavy turnout at
the ballot boxes," he said. "Heavy voting is a message of hope and a sign of
faith in the future of the nation and country," he remarked.
Judge Aoun Questions Chairmen of Bank of Beirut, Bank Audi
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun on Monday interrogated Bank of Beirut
chairman Salim Sfeir and Bank Audi chairman Samir Hanna over a complaint filed
by an activist group. Media reports said Aoun would also interrogate Khalil al-Bitar,
who is a member of the board of directors of Bank Audi.
More bank directors and officials will also be questioned on Tuesday and
Thursday. The activist group, the People Want to Reform the Regime, had filed a
complaint against the chairmen of all Lebanese banks in connection with a
lawsuit alleging that the central bank had transferred $8 billion to seven banks
to pay to depositors abroad, and that the banks paid only $1 billion and kept
the remaining $7 billion in their coffers. Although the banks concerned are
seven, reports say that the investigation will target the chairmen of the
country’s 14 main banks. Al-Akhbar newspaper reported that Judge Aoun might
issue travel banks against the chairmen and might also freeze their assets and
properties. The lawsuit also targets Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and six
central bank officials.
Raad: If We're Not Drilling for Gas, Israel Won't be
Able to Do So
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
The head of Hizbullah’s Loyalty to Resistance bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, has
announced that Israel will not be able to explore for offshore gas if Lebanon is
not also doing the same in its territorial waters. “The American mediator came
to Lebanon over the past days to play the role of the fox in the splitting of
the cheese between the rivals,” Raad said during a memorial service in the
southern town of Kfar Fila. “He’s telling that it is possible that that gas
field would be shared between us and the Israelis, in order to be able to
explore for gas in our territorial waters,” Raad added. “We say that our gas
will remain buried in our waters until we manage to prevent the Israelis from
extending their hands even to a single drop of our waters,” the lawmaker went on
to say. “We are not impotent, and let the enemy and those communicating with it
-- be them mediators or not – know that the Israelis will not be able to drill
for gas next to us unless we explore for gas and invest in it as we want,” Raad
stressed.
Lázaro Takes Up Duties as UNIFIL Head of Mission and
Force Commander
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
UNIFIL held a ceremony at its headquarters in Naqoura on Monday to officially
transfer authority from outgoing Head of Mission and Force Commander Major
General Stefano Del Col of Italy to Major General Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz of Spain.
Before handing over command, Del Col applauded “the cooperation of the parties
for working with him and demonstrating their commitment and collaboration,”
which has helped maintain “the remarkable stability” in south Lebanon over the
past 16 years, a statement said. “UNIFIL has provided, and continues to provide,
a window of opportunity to work toward a long-term solution, but we are not the
substitute for a political long-term solution,” said the outgoing mission head.
“Moving forward and leaving the past behind is of paramount importance for both
countries (Lebanon and Israel). Peace is possible, but courage, commitment and
progress are necessary to proceed in this direction,” the Major General added.
The ceremony was attended by high-level representatives of the Government of
Lebanon, including Minister of National Defense Maurice Slim representing Prime
Minister Najib Miqati, Member of Parliament Enaya Ezzeddine representing Speaker
Nabih Berri, Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun. Also in
attendance were members of the diplomatic corps accredited to Lebanon, local
municipal leaders, religious leaders and fellow peacekeepers. High-level
government delegations from Spain, led by Minister of Defense Margarita Robles
Fernández, and from Italy, led by the Under Secretary of State for Defense
Stefania Pucciarelli, also attended today’s ceremony. In his remarks, the
incoming UNIFIL head, Maj. Gen. Lázaro, said he will endeavor to ensure that the
cessation of hostilities is sustained, as well as to foster the respect of the
Blue Line by both parties.
“I will resort to the liaison and coordination arrangements, including the
Tripartite Mechanisms, if any incident occurs, to facilitate coordination and
de-escalate tensions and restore calm in the area,” he said. He added that
continuing the current pace of coordinated activities between UNIFIL and the LAF
will help “maintain the stability in the UNIFIL area of operations and along the
Blue Line and extend and sustain the authority of the Government of Lebanon in
the area.”“This could be a major step forward to set the conditions for a
political and diplomatic solution,” he said.
Maj. Gen. Lázaro has had a long and distinguished career in the Spanish Army
since 1986, when he was commissioned as Lieutenant (infantry). He has held
multiple command positions, from platoon leader to Infantry Brigade Commander.
He also has extensive international experience, including assignments in Bosnia
and Herzegovina (with the U.N. Protection Force), NATO Stabilization Force and
the European Union Rapid Operational Force. He has previously served with UNIFIL
three times, as Sector East Liaison Officer at UNIFIL Headquarters in 2011, as
Chief of Staff of Sector East in 2013 and, as Sector East Commander in 2016.
Russian Ambassador Says Lebanese Statement Won't Affect
Ties
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov has said that a Lebanese Foreign
Ministry statement condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “does not take into
consideration the cordial and historic bilateral relations between the two
countries.”
“It will not affect our relation,” the ambassador, however, added. “During the
difficult days, we know who is with us and who is against us,” Rudakov went on
to say. In the statement that was issued Thursday, the Lebanese Foreign Ministry
condemned Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine and called on Moscow to
“immediately halt military operations.”Lebanon calls on Moscow to “withdraw its
forces and return to the approach of dialogue and negotiations, as the best
means to resolve the current conflict,” the statement added.The statement
sparked controversy in the Lebanese political arena, with many parties openly
criticizing it, most notably Hizbullah and its allies.
Lebanon to Send Planes to Poland to Help Nationals
Trapped in Ukraine
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Lebanon will cover the expenses of the evacuation of Lebanese nationals trapped
in Ukraine, a Lebanese official said. Secretary General of the Higher Relief
Committee Maj. Gen. Mohamed Kheir revealed that planes will be sent to
neighboring Poland starting March 4. He added that he is proud of the Lebanese
community in Ukraine. "I have contacted them and found they have organized
themselves, and some of them have managed to reach Poland," Kheir explained.
Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi had assigned a specialized team from the
ministry to evacuate the Lebanese, in coordination with the Red Cross in Lebanon
and Ukraine and with the support of a Lebanese expatriate businessman.
Meanwhile, Lebanese Ambassador to Ukraine Ali Daher said in a press interview
that 300 Lebanese have already left Ukraine to nearby countries.
Military Court Releases Two Detainees Suspected of
Spying for Israel
Naharnet/Monday, 28 February, 2022
The military court has released two detainees who had been suspected of spying
for Israel, Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi revealed on Monday. Last month, the
Lebanese security forces had busted more than 17 suspected Israeli spy networks,
in one of the largest nationwide crackdowns in recent years. The two persons who
were released today had been detained among the suspected Israeli spy networks,
Mawlawi specified, clarifying that they had nothing to do with the I.S.
terrorists who had also been recently arrested. Mawlawi had announced last week
that the Internal Security Forces had thwarted a plan by the Islamic State group
to carry out three suicide bombings targeting Shiite religious compounds in
Beirut's southern suburbs.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on
February 28/March 01/2022
Moscow, Kyiv Hold Talks in Belarus, Plan 'Second Round'
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia will return to their capital cities for
consultations and have plans for fresh talks, both sides announced Monday after
meeting for their first talks since the outbreak of war last week. "The
delegations are returning to their capitals for consultations and have discussed
the possibility of meeting for a second round of negotiations soon," Ukrainian
negotiator Mikhailo Podolyak said. "We agreed to keep the negotiations going,"
the Russian delegation head, Vladimir Medinsky said.
Russian Forces Seize Two Cities in Ukraine, Interfax Says, as Ceasefire Talks
Begin
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Russian forces seized two small cities in southeastern Ukraine and the area
around a nuclear power plant, the Interfax news agency said on Monday, but ran
into stiff resistance elsewhere as Moscow's diplomatic and economic isolation
deepened. After four days of fighting and a Russian advance that has gone more
slowly than some expected, talks between Ukraine and Russia started on Monday at
the border with Russian ally Belarus, a senior Ukrainian official told Reuters
via text message. The goal was an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of
Russian forces, the Ukrainian president's office said earlier.
It was not clear whether any progress could be achieved after President Vladimir
Putin on Thursday launched the biggest assault on a European state since World
War Two and put Russia's nuclear deterrent on high alert on Sunday. The
Western-led response was swift, with sanctions that effectively cut off Moscow's
major financial institutions from Western markets sending Russia's rouble
currency down 30% against the dollar on Monday. Countries also stepped up
weapons supplies to Ukraine. Blasts were heard before dawn on Monday in the
capital of Kyiv and in the major eastern city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian authorities
said. But Russian ground forces' attempts to capture major urban centers had
been repelled, they added. Russia's defense ministry, however, said its forces
had taken over the towns of Berdyansk and Enerhodar in Ukraine's southeastern
Zaporizhzhya region as well as the area around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power
plant, Interfax reported. The plant's operations continued normally, it said.
Ukraine denied that the nuclear plant had fallen into Russian hands, according
to the news agency. There was fighting around the Ukrainian port city of
Mariupol throughout the night, Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the Donetsk regional
administration, said on television on Monday. He did not say whether Russian
forces had gained or lost any ground or provide any casualty figures. At least
102 civilians in Ukraine have been killed since Thursday, with a further 304
wounded, but the real figure is feared to be "considerably higher", UN human
rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Monday. More than 360,000 people have
fled to neighboring countries, according to the UN Refugee Agency. A senior US
defense official said Russia had fired more than 350 missiles at Ukrainian
targets since Thursday, some hitting civilian infrastructure. "It appears that
they are adopting a siege mentality, which any student of military tactics and
strategy will tell you, when you adopt siege tactics, it increases the
likelihood of collateral damage," the official said, speaking on condition of
anonymity.
Weapons
Partners in the US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) defense
alliance were providing Ukraine with air-defense missiles and anti-tank weapons,
Chief Jens Stoltenberg said in a tweet on Monday. The Kremlin accused the
European Union of hostile behavior, saying weapons supplies to Ukraine were
destabilizing and proved that Russia was right in its efforts to demilitarize
its neighbor. It declined to comment on whether there was a risk of
confrontation between Russia and NATO. Russia has demanded that NATO never admit
Ukraine. Germany said it would increase defense spending massively, casting off
decades of reluctance to match its economic power with military clout. Russia's
rouble plummeted nearly 30% against the dollar on Monday, after Western nations
on Saturday unveiled sweeping sanctions including blocking some Russian banks
from the SWIFT international payments system. Russia's central bank scrambled to
manage the broadening fallout, saying it would resume buying gold on the
domestic market, launch a repurchase auction with no limits and ease
restrictions on banks' open foreign currency positions. It also ordered brokers
to block attempt by foreigners to sell Russian securities. Japan and South Korea
said they would join in the action to block some banks from SWIFT. South Korea,
a major exporter of semiconductors, said it would also ban exports of strategic
items to Russia. Several European subsidiaries of Sberbank Russia, majority
owned by the Russian government, were failing or were likely to fail due to the
reputational cost of the war in Ukraine, the European Central Bank said. Britain
said on Monday it was taking further measures against Russia in concert with the
United States and European Union.
Corporate giants also took action, with British oil major BP BP, the biggest
foreign investor in Russia, saying it would abandon its stake in state oil
company Rosneft at a cost of up to $25 billion.
Protests
Rolling protests have been held around the world against the invasion, including
in Russia, where almost 6,000 people have been detained at anti-war protests
since Thursday, the OVD-Info protest monitor said. As Western governments
mustered more support for sanctions against Moscow, diplomatic maneuvering
continued with the Vatican joining efforts by offering to "facilitate dialogue"
between Russia and Ukraine. The UN Human Rights Council agreed on Monday to
Ukraine's request to hold an urgent debate this week on Russia's invasion,
minutes after Kyiv's envoy told the Geneva forum that some of Moscow's military
actions "may amount to war crimes". The 47-member council adopted the proposal
by a vote of 29 in favor, with five against, including Russia and China.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday asked the European Union to
allow Ukraine to gain membership immediately. "Our goal is to be with all
Europeans and, most importantly, to be equal. I'm sure that's fair. I am sure we
deserve it," he said in a video speech shared on social media. US President Joe
Biden will host a call with allies and partners on Monday to coordinate a united
response, the White House said. The United States said Putin was escalating the
war with "dangerous rhetoric" about Russia's nuclear posture, amid signs Russian
forces were preparing to besiege major cities in the democratic country of about
44 million people. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation”
that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern
neighbor's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous
nationalists. The EU shut all Russian planes out of its airspace, as did Canada,
forcing Russian airline Aeroflot to cancel all flights to European destinations
until further notice. The EU also banned the Russian media outlets RT and
Sputnik.
Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine May Supercharge Nuclear Proliferation
Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst and Anthony
Ruggiero/Policy Brief/February 28/2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine violates the commitments
Moscow reaffirmed in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, in
which Russia pledged not to threaten or use force against Ukraine, while Kyiv
relinquished the stockpile of Soviet nuclear weapons it inherited. This latest
breach of the Kremlin’s agreements risks making other states more likely to
pursue nuclear weapons and less likely to give them up.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, newly independent Ukraine found itself
with hundreds of Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory. While Ukraine never
had operational control of the weapons, there was concern that Ukraine could
attempt to take control over them.
This proliferation risk led Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United
Kingdom to sign the Budapest Memorandum in 1994. In connection with Ukraine’s
accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and
relinquishment of the nuclear weapons still on its territory, the United States,
the United Kingdom, and particularly Russia agreed to:“respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”;“refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or
political independence of Ukraine”; and
“refrain from economic coercion” against Ukraine.
Russia violated these commitments with its 2014 annexation of Crimea and
subsequent war in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Moscow has now broken them again as
Putin conducts a major new invasion of Ukraine.
Despite a provision in the memorandum that calls for assistance by the UN
Security Council if Ukraine is threatened or attacked, Kyiv will receive no help
there. As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia can use its veto to
forestall any effective action by that body. Russia is even serving as president
of the Security Council this month, underscoring the council’s inadequacy for
addressing such great power aggression. This was on full display on Wednesday,
when the Russian ambassador set aside his duties as council president to echo
Putin’s grievances and mistruths even as Kyiv’s ambassador sat nearby and held
his head in his hand.
The new invasion of Ukraine adds to the long list of Russian actions that
violate treaties and international agreements that the Kremlin has signed — all
the more ironic in light of Moscow’s demands in recent months for “legally
binding” guarantees against Ukrainian membership in NATO, as well as Putin’s
recent complaints that sanctions violate international law. Russia has also
violated the Minsk agreements and the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty,
among others.
Worse still, Russia’s disregard for its commitments has dangerous implications
for global efforts to counter nuclear proliferation. Putin’s actions will
reinforce the message that a country’s possession of nuclear weapons decreases
the chance that it will suffer invasion. That will make preventing the spread of
nuclear weapons more difficult.
North Korea is now even less likely to give up or roll back its nuclear weapons
program. North Korea previously referenced Libya as a case study to suggest why
Pyongyang should not de-nuclearize. Putin just gave Pyongyang another example to
cite. Meanwhile, the ultra-radical regime in Tehran will likely see the events
in Europe as further justification for its long-running efforts to develop a
nuclear weapons capability.
Depending on the reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, even some of
America’s allies and partners might reconsider whether they need nuclear weapons
of their own.
Moscow has blown off its Budapest Memorandum commitments, but the United States
should not do the same. Strong support for Ukraine can minimize the damage to
the nonproliferation regime from this latest Russian violation.
*Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power
(CMPP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Ryan Brobst is
a research analyst and Anthony Ruggiero is a senior fellow. For more analysis
from the authors and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Bradley and Anthony on
Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman and @NatSecAnthony. Follow FDD on Twitter at @FDD and @FDD_CMPP.
FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
Russia Expelled from World Cup, Clubs Banned from Int'l
Competitions
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Russia has been expelled from the 2022 World Cup and its teams suspended from
all international football competitions "until further notice" after its
invasion of Ukraine, FIFA announced in a joint statement with UEFA on Monday.
The men's team had been due to play in qualifying play-offs in March for the
World Cup in Qatar later this year, while its women's side had qualified for the
European Championship in England, to be held in July. The announcement also
affects Russian clubs involved in European competitions. "FIFA and UEFA have
today decided together that all Russian teams, whether national representative
teams or club teams, shall be suspended from participation in both FIFA and UEFA
competitions until further notice," football's global and European governing
bodies said. Russia were due to play Poland in a World Cup qualifying play-off
semi-final on March 24, and could have gone on to face Sweden or the Czech
Republic on March 29 for a place at the finals. But their three potential
opponents insisted they would boycott the matches. FIFA announced on Sunday that
Russian teams would be allowed to continue playing under the name of the
Football Union of Russia, playing home games on neutral territory and behind
closed doors, and with the Russian flag and anthem banned. But those measures
were dismissed as "totally unacceptable" by Polish FA president Cezary Kulesza,
who added that Poland would not play their World Cup play-off with Russia, "no
matter what the name of the team is."FIFA changed its approach on Monday,
kicking Russia out of the sport's showpiece tournament."Football is fully united
here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine," the
statement added. "Both presidents (Gianni Infantino and Aleksander Ceferin) hope
that the situation in Ukraine will improve significantly and rapidly so that
football can again be a vector for unity and peace amongst people."Russia were
due to play the Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland in their group at the
women's Euro. Spartak Moscow had been due to face RB Leipzig of Germany in the
Europa League last 16 next month.
Macron Urges Putin to Spare Ukrainian Civilians
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday called on Russian President Vladimir
Putin to spare civilians in Ukraine, the French leader's office said in a
statement. Macron's office said that in a 90-minute phone call he had asked the
Russian leader to stop attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure in
Ukraine, and secure major roadways, in particular the road from the south of
Kyiv. "President Putin confirmed his willingness to make commitments on these
three points," the statement said. Macron also "reiterated the demand of the
international community to stop the Russian offensive against Ukraine, and
reaffirmed the need to implement an immediate ceasefire," the Elysee said, but
did not give the Russian leader's response. Macron also called on Putin to
respect international humanitarian law, and allow aid shipments to reach the
population, the statement said. The call was the latest in a series of exchanges
between both men in which Macron first sought to prevent the Russian invasion,
and then to limit its damage. Earlier this month, Macron went to Moscow to talk
with Putin in person, returning to Paris with assurances of what he called
Putin's "desire to maintain stability and the territorial integrity of
Ukraine."After the latest conversation Monday, Macron suggested the two leaders
remain in contact in the coming days "to prevent a worsening of the situation",
to which Putin agreed, the Elysee said.
EU Dampens Ukraine Plea for 'Immediate' Membership
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
The EU on Monday poured cold water on a plea from Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky for "immediate" membership to the bloc for his country as Kyiv battled
a Russian invasion. EU officials stressed that the adherence procedure takes
years, dampening Ukraine's hopes that suddenly becoming part of the European
club could help it better weather the Russian onslaught and speed up military,
financial and political support. Several officials walked back a comment by
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen that appeared to hold out the
prospect of Ukraine being admitted.
"They are one of us and we want them in," she told Euronews in an interview on
Sunday, after emphasizing existing EU-Ukraine cooperation. Zelensky seized upon
that on Monday to appeal to the European Union "for the immediate accession of
Ukraine via a new special procedure".
"Our goal is to be together with all Europeans and, most importantly, to be on
an equal footing. I'm sure it's fair. I'm sure it's possible." Ukrainian Prime
Minister Denys Shmygal tweeted that "the time to put it down on paper has come.
Ukraine is applying for EU membership under a special procedure."
However no such fast-track procedure exists, officials said. Aspirants wanting
to join the bloc typically face a long and complex process that often requires
major reforms to reach EU standards. They also have to prove that their finances
are heading in a direction that will allow them to adopt the euro.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that any bid for membership could
take "a lot of years." Von der Leyen's spokesman, Eric Mamer, walked back her
comments, telling journalists that the EU chief meant that Ukraine "is a
European country and we want them in, meaning Europe in general."
"She then also specified that there is a process (for joining the EU). And I
think that this is the important point," he added.
- EU 'sensitivities' -
The European Commission said that, in any case, it can only negotiate with
hopeful candidate countries on the basis of a mandate from the EU's 27 member
states -- something it has not received for Ukraine."At the end of the day, this
is a debate at the highest political level, for the (European) Council," where
the member states take decisions, said a commission spokeswoman, Ana
Pisonero.The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, told a group of
journalists that there were already longstanding disagreements among EU
countries on enlarging the bloc. "There are different opinions and sensitivities
within the EU on enlargement," he told a group of journalists. He said Kyiv
would have to submit an official request to join before member states -- which
would have to greenlight membership unanimously -- could come up with a
position. According to Zelensky's Telegram channel, the Ukrainian president
signed such a request on Monday.The European Union, created by six nations under
a different name in 1957, has expanded in four waves over the past three
decades. After Britain's exit from the bloc in 2020, it counts 27 member states.
There are currently five countries that are candidates to join -- Turkey,
Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania -- but their bids have been
stuck in limbo for years.The last country to join the EU was Croatia, which was
admitted in 2013 -- after nearly a decade of negotiations and reforms.
Race and Religion Influences Treatment of Refugees in
Europe
Associated Press/Monday, 28 February, 2022
They file into neighboring countries by the hundreds of thousands — refugees
from Ukraine clutching children in one arm, belongings in the other. And they're
being heartily welcomed, by leaders of countries like Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria,
Moldova and Romania.
But while the hospitality has been applauded, it has also highlighted stark
differences in treatment given to migrants and refugees from the Middle East and
Africa, particularly Syrians who came in 2015. Some of the language from these
leaders has been disturbing to them, and deeply hurtful. "These are not the
refugees we are used to… these people are Europeans," Bulgarian Prime Minister
Kiril Petkov told journalists earlier this week, of the Ukrainians. "These
people are intelligent, they are educated people. ... This is not the refugee
wave we have been used to, people we were not sure about their identity, people
with unclear pasts, who could have been even terrorists…""In other words," he
added, "there is not a single European country now which is afraid of the
current wave of refugees."Syrian journalist Okba Mohammad says that statement
"mixes racism and Islamophobia."Mohammad fled his hometown of Daraa in 2018. He
now lives in Spain, and with other Syrian refugees founded the first bilingual
magazine in Arabic and Spanish. He said he wasn't surprised by the remarks from
Petkov and others.
Mohammad described a sense of déjà vu as he followed events in Ukraine. Like
thousands of Ukrainians, he also had to shelter underground to protect himself
from Russian bombs. He also struggled to board an overcrowded bus to flee his
town. He also was separated from his family at the border. "A refugee is a
refugee, whether European, African or Asian," Mohammad said. When it comes to
Ukraine, the change in tone of some of Europe's most extreme anti-migration
leaders has been striking — from "We aren't going to let anyone in" to "We're
letting everyone in."
Those comments were made only three months apart by Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Orban. In the first, in December, he was addressing migrants and refugees
from the Middle East and Africa seeking to enter Europe via Hungary. In the
second, this week, he was addressing people from Ukraine. And it's not just
politicians. Some journalists are also being criticized for how they are
reporting on and describing Ukrainian refugees. "These are prosperous,
middle-class people," an al-Jazeera English television presenter said. "These
are not obviously refugees trying to get away from areas in the Middles East...
in North Africa. They look like any European family that you would live next
door to."The channel issued an apology saying the comments were insensitive and
irresponsible. CBS news also apologized after one of its correspondents said the
conflict in Kyiv wasn't "like Iraq or Afghanistan that has seen conflict raging
for decades. This is a relatively civilized, relatively European" city. When
over a million people crossed into Europe in 2015, support for refugees fleeing
wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan was much greater. Of course, there were also
moments of hostility — such as when a Hungarian camerawoman was filmed kicking
and possibly tripping migrants along the country's border with Serbia.
Still, back then, Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, famously said "Wir
schaffen das" or "We can do it," and the Swedish prime minister urged citizens
to "open your hearts" to refugees. Volunteers gathered on Greek beaches to
rescue exhausted families crossing on flimsy boats from Turkey. In Germany, they
were greeted with applause at train and bus stations. But the warm welcome soon
ended after EU nations disagreed over how to share responsibility, with the main
pushback coming from Central and Eastern European countries like Hungary and
Poland. One by one, governments across Europe toughened migration and asylum
policies, doubling down on border surveillance, earning the nickname of
"Fortress Europe."Just last week, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
denounced the increasing "violence and serious human rights violations" across
European borders, specifically pointing the finger at Greece.
And last year hundreds of people, mainly from Iraq and Syria but also from
Africa, were left stranded in a no man's land between Poland and Belarus as the
EU accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of luring thousands of
foreigners to its borders in retaliation for sanctions. At the time, Poland
blocked access to aid groups and journalists. More than 15 people died in the
cold. Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean, the European Union has been heavily
criticized for funding Libya to intercept migrants trying to reach its shores,
helping to return them to abusive — and often deadly — detention centers.
"There is no way to avoid questions around the deeply embedded racism of
European migration policies when we see how different the reactions of national
governments and EU elites are to the people trying to reach Europe," Lena
Karamanidou, an independent migration and asylum researcher in Greece, wrote on
Twitter.
Jeff Crisp, a former head of policy, development and evaluation at UNHCR, agreed
that race and religion influenced treatment of refugees. Like many, he was
struck by the double standard. "Countries that had been really negative on the
refugee issue and have made it very difficult for the EU to develop coherent
refugee policy over the last decade, suddenly come forward with a much more
positive response," Crisp noted. Much of Orban's opposition to migration is
based on his belief that to "preserve cultural homogeneity and ethnic
homogeneity," Hungary should not accept refugees from different cultures and
different religions. Members of Poland's conservative nationalist ruling party
have also consistently echoed Orban's thinking on migration to protect Poland's
identity as a Christian nation and guarantee its security, they say, arguing
that large Muslim populations could raise the risk of terror threats.
But none of these arguments has been applied to their Ukrainian neighbors, with
whom they share historical and cultural ties. Parts of Ukraine today were once
also parts of Poland and Hungary. Over 1 million Ukrainians live and work in
Poland and hundreds of thousands more are scattered across Europe. Some 150,000
ethnic Hungarians also live in Western Ukraine, many of whom have Hungarian
passports.
"It is not completely unnatural for people to feel more comfortable with people
who come from nearby, who speak the (similar) language or have a (similar)
culture," Crisp said. But as more and more people scrambled to flee as Russia
advanced, several reports emerged of non-white residents of Ukraine, including
Nigerians, Indians and Lebanese, getting stuck at the border with Poland. Unlike
Ukrainians, many non-Europeans need visas to get into neighboring countries.
Embassies from around the world were scrambling to assist their citizens
struggling to get through chaotic border crossings out of Ukraine. Videos shared
on social media posted under the hashtag #AfricansinUkraine allegedly showed
African students being held back from boarding trains out of Ukraine — to make
space for Ukrainians. In Poland, Ruchir Kataria, an Indian volunteer, told the
Associated Press on Sunday that his compatriots got stuck on the Ukrainian side
of the border crossing leading into Medyka, Poland. In Ukraine, they were
initially told to go to Romania hundreds of kilometers away, he said, after they
had already made long journeys on foot to the border, not eating for three days.
Finally, on Monday they got through. The United Nations Refugee Agency has urged
"receiving countries (to) continue to welcome all those fleeing conflict and
insecurity — irrespective of nationality and race."
Switzerland Adopts EU Sanctions against Russia
Associated Press/Monday, 28 February, 2022
The Swiss president says Russia's attack on Ukraine is "unacceptable" and
Switzerland will adopt European Union sanctions, including asset freezes,
targeting Russians – all but depriving well-heeled Russians of access to one of
their favorite havens to park their money.
Ignazio Cassis told a news conference Monday that Russia's invasion was
intolerable on moral and political grounds. Switzerland's government has been
trying to balance its condemnation of Russia's actions with its history of
neutrality and as an intermediary between opposing countries.
Referring to the Swiss executive body, he added: "The Federal Council has
decided to take up fully the sanctions of the European Union, including the
asset freezes." Switzerland is not a European Union member but is all but
surrounded by four EU countries: Austria, France, Germany and Italy.
Russian Central Bank Moves to Stem Plunge in Ruble
Associated Press/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Russia's central bank sharply raised its key rate Monday in a desperate attempt
to shore up the plummeting ruble and prevent the run of banks amid crippling
Western sanctions over the Russian war in Ukraine. The bank hiked the benchmark
rate to 20% from 8.5%. That followed a Western decision Sunday to freeze
Russia's hard currency reserves, an unprecedented move that could have
devastating consequences for the country's financial stability. It was unclear
exactly what share of Russia's estimated $640 billion hard currency coffers
would be paralyzed by the decision by Western nations to block Russian banks
from the SWIFT global payment system. European officials said that at least half
of it will be affected. That dramatically raised pressure on the ruble by
undermining the financial authorities' ability to conduct hard currency
interventions. The central bank ordered other measures to help banks cope with
the crisis by infusing more cash into the financial system and easing
restrictions for banking operations. At the same time, it temporarily barred
non-residents from selling the government obligations to help ease the pressure
on the ruble from panicky foreign investors trying to cash out of such
investments. The ruble sank about 30% against the U.S. dollar early Monday but
steadied after the central bank's move. It was trading at a record low 105.27
per dollar, down from about 84 per dollar late Friday. Sanctions announced last
week had taken the Russian currency to its lowest level against the dollar in
history.
UK Says Sanctions Intended 'to Bring Down Putin Regime'
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Western sanctions in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine are designed to
topple Russian President Vladimir Putin, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's
spokesman said Monday. But he also denied that regime change is the main goal,
apparently rowing back at a daily briefing, after Britain, the United States and
European Union imposed a biting series of measures against Putin. "The measures
we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring
down the Putin regime," the spokesman, who speaks on condition of anonymity,
told reporters. "We have introduced widespread sanctions, we aim to inflict
financial pain on Putin and his regime to stymie the Russian war machine as it
attempts to subjugate a democratic European country," he said. But pressed on
the wider goals of the sanctions drive, the spokesman added: "We're not seeking
anything in terms of regime change. "What we're talking about here clearly is
how we stop Russia seeking to subjugate a democratic country. That's been the
message throughout."
Isolated Russia Defends Ukraine War at U.N. General
Assembly
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Facing deepening isolation on the world stage, Russia faced a crucial test of
support Monday as the 193 members of the U.N. General Assembly held an
extraordinary debate on a resolution condemning Moscow's "unprovoked armed
aggression" in Ukraine. During the rare emergency special session -- just the
11th the Assembly has held in the United Nations' 77-year history -- Russia
defended its decision to invade its neighbor as member state after member state
made a plea for peace. "The fighting in Ukraine must stop," warned UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, after the session began with a minute of
silence for the victims of the conflict."Enough is enough. Soldiers need to move
back to their barracks. Leaders need to move to peace. Civilians must be
protected," he pleaded. More than 100 countries were expected to speak as the
global body decides if it will support the resolution that demands Russia
immediately withdraws its troops from Ukraine. The resolution is non-binding but
will serve as marker of how isolated Russia is. A vote may not come until
Tuesday. Its authors hope they may exceed 100 votes in favor -- though countries
including Syria, China, Cuba and India are expected to either support Russia or
abstain.
It will be seen as a barometer of democracy in a world where autocratic
sentiment has been on the rise, diplomats said, pointing to such regimes in
Myanmar, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Venezuela, Nicaragua -- and, of course,
Russia. "If Ukraine does not survive, the United Nations will not survive. Have
no illusions," said Ukraine's ambassador to the U.N., Sergiy Kyslytsya,
imploring countries to support the resolution. "We can save Ukraine, save the
United Nations, save democracy and defend the values we believe in," he added.
Russian ambassador Vassily Nebenzia reiterated Moscow's stance -- flatly
rejected by Kiev and its Western allies -- that its military operation was
launched to protect residents of breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. "The
hostilities were unleashed by Ukraine against its own residents," he said from
the podium. "Russia is seeking to end this war," he added.
- 2014 Crimea vote -
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on
February 24. Moscow has pleaded "self-defense" under Article 51 of the U.N.
Charter. But that has been roundly rejected by Western countries and the U.N.,
which accuse Moscow of violating Article 2 of the Charter, requiring its members
to refrain from the threat or use of force to resolve a crisis. Addressing the
General Assembly, British ambassador Barbara Woodward said countries "must stand
together to defend the rules and enforce the accountability that we have built
together." "If we do not stand up for them now, then the safety of every
nation's borders and independence are at risk," she said. The move to hold the
emergency session was sparked by Russia on Friday using its veto to block a
Security Council resolution that condemned Moscow's invasion and called for the
immediate withdrawal of its troops. Russia voted against the resolution, but it
did not have veto power to derail the referral of the war to the General
Assembly, allowed under a 1950 resolution called "Uniting for Peace." It allows
for members of the Security Council to seize the General Assembly for a special
session if the five permanent members -- Russia, the United States, Britain,
France and China -- fail to agree to act together to maintain peace. There is no
right of veto at the General Assembly, which held a similar vote in 2014
condemning Russia's seizure of Crimea and obtained 100 votes in support.
Separately Monday, the Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency
meeting on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, where up to seven million
people are expected to flee the fighting.
China Tells U.N. 'Nothing Can be Gained' from a new Cold
War
Agence France Presse/Monday, 28 February, 2022
China's U.N. ambassador told an emergency meeting of the world body's General
Assembly Monday that "nothing can be gained" from a new Cold War between America
and Russia. "The Cold War has long ended. The Cold War mentality based on block
confrontation should be abandoned," Zhang Jun said during the debate about
Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "Nothing can be gained from starting off a new
Cold War, but everyone will stand to lose," he added.
Iran Says 3 Key Issues Remain Unresolved in Vienna Nuclear Talks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 28 February, 2022
Iran said on Monday that reviving a 2015 nuclear deal is possible if Western
powers take a political decision to resolve three remaining issues, as indirect
negotiations between Tehran and Washington enter a crucial stage. Iran's foreign
ministry spokesman identified the remaining outstanding issues as: the extent to
which sanctions would be rolled back, providing guarantees that the United
States will not quit the pact again, and resolving questions over uranium traces
found at several old but undeclared sites in Iran. After 10 months of talks in
Vienna, progress has been made toward the restoration of the pact to curb
Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, which the United
States abandoned in 2018. Both Tehran and Washington have cautioned that still
there are some significant differences to overcome. "Reaching a good deal is
possible ... three key issues still remain to be resolved. The US and European
powers have not taken political decisions on these major issues," Iran's Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh told a weekly news conference. "We
believe that we need an appropriate pathway to solve remaining issues in the
areas of lifting sanctions, guarantees and political claims that have been
leveled against our peaceful civilian nuclear program," Khatibzadeh said. Iran's
lead nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani, who flew to Tehran last week for
consultations with Iranian officials, "has returned to Vienna to pursue the
negotiations with a clear agenda", Khatibzadeh said. "The return to the nuclear
deal will not be a one-day process, it will rather be a journey of many
verifications on the part of the US." Diplomats from parties involved in the
negotiations have said they have entered a crucial stage, while Tehran rejects
any "fabricated deadline" for the talks. The 2015 deal between Iran and world
powers limited Tehran's enrichment of uranium to make it harder for it to
develop material that could be used for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting
of international sanctions against Tehran. But in 2018, then-US President Donald
Trump abandoned the pact and reimposed sanctions that have devastated Iran's
oil-reliant economy. In response, Tehran violated nuclear limits in the
agreement.
Divisions in Iran over the Impact of Ukraine Crisis on Vienna Talks
London -Tehran/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 28/2022
The Iranian media is divided over the Russian position and the impact of the
Ukrainian crisis on Vienna talks aimed at reviving the nuclear deal with world
powers. Nuclear negotiations are nearing the finish line with an announcement
expected soon on a new deal to lift sanctions in exchange for renewed controls
on uranium enrichment. Parties supporting the 2015 nuclear agreement expressed
optimism as the US State Department asserts it will maintain contact with Russia
on issues considered key to its national security interests. These include talks
to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Analysts say the repercussions of the Ukrainian
crisis on the efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear pact depend on future
developments, the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported. The heightened
tension may affect the talks, analysts note, warning against booting Russia off
the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) or
imposing sanctions targeting its oil and gas exports. The state-run ISNA news
agency has recently tried to answer frequently asked questions on the link
between the Ukrainian crisis and the nuclear talks in Vienna. Its analyst cited
two factors that would have an impact on the talks. The first is linked to the
phase the negotiations have reached, and the second is the depth of the
Ukrainian crisis and possible military escalation. The agency dismissed any
long-term agreement between the West and Russia on outstanding issues. According
to Fararu news agency experts, the failure of talks will transfer the
technical-political matter into a security issue, which Russia does not want.
Iran must pursue its interests regardless of the circumstances, former Deputy
Foreign Minister Javad Larijani told IRNA, expressing “optimism” about the
future of talks. Former Iranian MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh told Arman Meli
newspaper that Russians didn’t allow the deal to be signed before invading
Ukraine. He said the optimism expressed by Russia's representative at the talks,
Mikhail Ulyanov, is a “big lie.”Falahatpisheh further warned that Russia would
sell the agreement in exchange for winning the war on Ukraine.
Canada sending additional $25M military aid to support
Ukraine
The Government of Canada continues to take strong and decisive
action in response to the Russian regime’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable
Anita Anand, Minister of National Defence, announced that Canada will be sending
an additional $25M in military aid to support Ukraine in its efforts to retain
sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.
This aid is in response to Ukraine’s direct request to Canada for further
protective equipment, and could include items such as helmets, body armour, gas
masks and night vision gear.
The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) will support the latest donation of aid
announced today by providing two C-130J tactical airlift aircraft and a team of
40-50 personnel to contribute to NATO efforts in Europe for a period of at least
two weeks, with continued requirement being reassessed. These aircraft will
depart Canada in the coming days. The final destination of CAF aircraft will not
be disclosed at this time to ensure the safety of our personnel.
The Government of Canada continues to condemn the Russian government’s
aggressive actions and call on Russia to cease its military actions and withdraw
from Ukraine. We will continue to take action to stand with Ukraine as they
fight for freedom and the right to choose their own future.
Quotes
“Canada stands united with the Ukrainian people, who have demonstrated immense
courage and resolve in the face of tyranny. We are working with our allies to
ensure Ukrainian military personnel are properly equipped and together with our
partners in Poland, we are working to deliver necessary military materials
without delay. We will continue to provide support to the Ukrainian people as
they fight to defend their nation and its freedom.”
- The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs
“Canada stands with Ukraine as it meets Putin’s horrifying aggression with
strong resistance. At Ukraine’s request and in coordination with NATO allies, we
are providing additional non-lethal aid and Canadian Armed Forces airlift to
bolster our Ukrainian friends’ ability to defend their right to exist.
In the hours, days and weeks to come, we will continue to work with partners and
allies to respond to Putin’s unwarranted aggression against Ukraine and to
defend the rules-based international order.”
The Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of National Defence
Quick facts
Since 2014, Canada has provided Ukraine with more than $890 million in
multifaceted assistance to support Ukraine’s security, prosperity, and reform
objectives. In addition, the government recently announced additional funding on
February 14, 2022 with up to $500 million through the Bretton Woods and Related
Agreements Act, and on January 21 another $120 million in loans through the
Sovereign Loans Program (SLP) to support the country’s economic resilience and
governance reforms.
Through Canada’s Peace and Stabilization Operations Program, Canada is currently
supporting over $16 million in ongoing multi-year programming focused on
security sector and defence reform in Ukraine, including a strong focus on
advancing Ukraine’s Women Peace and Security National Action Plan.
Since 2015, Canada has provided over $30M in non-lethal military equipment to
Ukraine, excluding today’s announcement. That equipment included items such as:
communications systems used for field operations, a mobile field hospital, and
explosive disposal equipment.
Since the start of Operation UNIFIER, Canadian troops have conducted more than
700 courses, training more than 33,000 Ukrainian military and security personnel
in battlefield tactics, maneuver, and other advanced military skills. This
support is in addition to the recent announcement of the extension and expansion
of Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) training and
capacity-building mission in Ukraine.
Operation UNIFIER harmonizes its efforts with other nations through a
Multinational Joint Commission. This commission includes Canada, Denmark,
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United
States.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
February 28/March 01/2022
As the Iron Curtain Falls on Russia, Putin Has No Exit Strategy from His
Predicament
Raghida Dergham/The National/March 01/2022
One of President Putin’s biggest mistakes is that he has entered a war without
an exit strategy. He has miscalculated and underestimated the response from
President Joe Biden, the European leaders, and NATO, disregarding the attempts
they made to deter him from invading Ukraine. He has now implicated Russia in
what could become a war of attrition for Russian forces that may turn out even
more costly than the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that started the countdown
to the collapse of the USSR. Today, Mr Putin is cocky, threatening Western
leaders with a world war should they dare to try top his march on Ukraine. But
Mr Putin has drowned himself in Ukraine’s quagmire and will no longer be able to
back down, not only because he doesn’t know how to, but because Western
sanctions have already started chipping away at Russia’s economy even before Mr
Putin has finished chipping away at Ukraine himself. It’s too late: danger now
surrounds the world, Russia, and Putin himself, but Putin has a different view.
Still, his real problems will start after military operations are concluded,
likely next week, and the bottom line is this: He has no exit strategy, nor a
staying strategy.
Clearly, NATO will not go to war with Russia to stop the invasion of Ukraine
that started this week, which was exactly the bet of the Master of the Kremlin
when he decided to crush his neighbour’s military infrastructure and
demilitarize it. Putin is going beyond Donbass and the goal of expanding the
borders of the self-proclaimed separatist republics through the Russian military
operation, instead readying Russian forces for a ‘peace enforcement’ mission –
not a ‘peacekeeping mission’ in case a political settlement is later reached.
Peace ‘enforcement’ requires Russian forces to keep their heavy weaponry and
full arsenal, while peace ‘keeping’ would require light weapons not consistent
with what the Russian president has in mind. And what he has in mind is more
than eastern Ukraine.
We do not yet know the full extent of Putin’s project in Ukraine and for
confronting NATO. However, the scope of military operations so far indicates
Putin intends to encircle the Ukrainian heartland and deny it access to the
Black Sea via Odessa near Crimea, which he appears to want to control. In
addition, Russia is seeking to encircle the capital Kyiv using troops out of
Belarus, to topple the regime there and replace it with a pro-Russian regime
like the one in Minsk.
In Putin’s view, this would help restore Russian – and Soviet – glory as dreamt
of by the Russian president. Putin would then sit at the negotiating table with
NATO holding new cards, to discuss the security guarantees he demanded from the
US and NATO, and which were met with a snub from the West. The snub triggered
Putin to take vengeance and activate his plan to invade Ukraine, in his view to
stop the West from further expanding NATO and threatening Russia’s national
security.
Putin feels that he has been humiliated and insulted by Western arrogance and
thus proceeded to detonate the entire world order to reshuffle the cards deck
and negotiate arrangements for a new world order. The Western sanctions that
Putin knew would cripple the Russian economy and could fall on him personally,
did not deter him from invading Ukraine. However, when the sanctions start to
bite and hit all sectors of the Russian economy, turning it into another Iran,
this could force Putin to reconsider his course of action, and his reliance on
partners like Iran in this fateful battle. Indeed, China, despite its political
support for Russia, will not join Putin’s adventures when the West imposes
financial sanctions that will devastate anyone who continues to deal with
Russia.
Iran is ready to work with Russia, despite its concerns over the impact of the
US-Russian standoff on the negotiations in Vienna seeking to revive the nuclear
deal and lift the sanctions on Iran. Indeed, Russia is in a standoff with four
powers engaged in the Vienna process – the US, Britain, Germany, and France –
and the invasion of Ukraine began before the final touches could be put on an
agreement in the Austrian capital. It is not clear whether these developments
will impede or postpone the Vienna process, bearing in mind that all sides had
wished to conclude it before the eruption of the crisis. Now, everyone is
preoccupied with the unfolding Russian-Ukrainian war.
Putin’s need for Iran will be greater in this stage, seeing it as a key
political, military, and energy partner against the sanctions. However, the
Russian president does not seem poised to thwart the Vienna process, because its
success would mean freeing Iran from sanctions. Since there are plans for a
nearly $8 billion arms deals between Russia and Iran, lifting sanctions will be
in Russia’s interest. At any rate, Putin has plans to influence the oil and gas
markets through the partnership with Iran, and by creating problems for the US
and European economies through movements designed to destabilize their markets.
China stands to win in all eventualities, and for this reason, it will not stand
as an ally to Russia in its war with the West. China has its own designs in the
context of the rivalry with the US. China has different calculations from Russia
despite their solidarity against the US and the West in general: Unlike Iran,
China is unwilling to become involved in the wars of others. It sees the
Ukrainian scene as everyone sees it – except Putin and his supporters: An arena
for likely attrition of Russia.
The talk here is not about a nebulous cyberwar. It’s about a potential Ukrainian
insurgency against Russian forces, causing huge losses and forcing the Russian
army to maintain and rotate its troops and hardware if it wants to keep them
there. Ukraine is a large country with 40 million people, most of whom are
hostile to Russia especially the new generation after 1991, a generation well
able to mount a war of attrition. Controlling 40 million people would require
deploying half a million Russian soldiers – an impossibility.
Perhaps this is why Putin is averse to the idea of occupying Kyiv with its 5
million people.
The cost would be prohibitively high, but his decision is to
impose a loyal government in Kyiv after toppling Volodymyr Zelensky. So how does
he think he can achieve this?
The problem lies in keeping Russian forces in Ukraine – in which case Russia
would be risking a repeat of Afghanistan. The dilemma then for Putin is how to
control Ukraine without huge numbers of Russian boots on the ground. The Russian
president wants to turn Ukraine into a protectorate run by a government that
receives its orders from Moscow. However, this project does not seem feasible,
especially over the long run, hence Putin’s predicament: He has no strategy to
stay, nor a strategy to exit Ukraine, posing grave dangers to Russia itself.
What was President Putin thinking when he went into this adventure? Certainly,
he was thinking of Russia’s past glories, and the glories of the USSR that he
still mourns. He thought that the US and NATO powers would cave to his demands
for security guarantees, pledge not to expand NATO especially to Ukraine, and
limit military cooperation with Eastern Europe. He thought they would do so out
of fear of Russia’s might in Ukraine and is still wagering on forcing the West
to the negotiations table through escalation and intimidation with the threat of
a European and world war.
The problem is that Putin will not back down but will go further and further,
under the whip of sanctions, isolation, and denunciation. He may create a
pretext for NATO states to enter a direct war with Russia, either through the
Ukraine-Poland border, or by drawing in an Eastern European NATO member. To be
sure, the US and other leading NATO powers have pledged to respond militarily if
Putin expands his military challenge to these countries, and herein lies the
danger of sliding into a quasi-world war.
Now, Russia has entered a Cold War with the West. The West has responded by
dropping an Iron Curtain on Russia through sanctions that will prevent Russia
from developing its military capabilities or funding its war machine, crippling
the entirety of its economy, and placing Russia and its people behind a curtain.
The sanctions announced by the US president and European leaders will paralyze
Russian banks and the financial transactions of Russian corporations, which will
not be able to use the dollar, euro, or pound sterling and yen. Such sanctions
will eventually hit the lifeblood of the Russian citizen.
The Western sanctions have now mothballed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project
between Russia and Germany, which Putin had much desired. The Western sanctions
also include restrictions on technology that seek to paralyze the energy sector
and hit hard Russia’s exports; hit Russia’s internet 80 percent of whose cable
infrastructure go through the US; and prevent Russia from manufacturing chips,
impacting its space program. The Russian people have not yet assimilated what’s
coming, and again, this will be a problem for Putin.
The Russian people will be taken into a dark tunnel that will be hard to emerge
from, because there is no visibility about whether Putin or the West can back
down now. Russia will grow weaker as NATO grows stronger and more united, thanks
to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian people will find themselves isolated
from their European depth, paying the price of the war for security guarantees
that the Russian president is obsessively fixated on, inviting sanctions that
will take his people back to the Soviet era. The Russian people may not
immediately appreciate the magnitude of the sanctions, isolation, and the new
Iron Curtain/Cold War, but they will sooner or later feel their impact. So, what
will the Russian people do about their president taking them to the precipice?
This is the start of war, not its conclusion. And certainly, the battlefield
will dictate its outcome. There may be surprises that turn the tables and put
the US and NATO in a weaker position, especially as accusations of ‘betrayal’
are being levelled at NATO and the US for not intervening to rescue Ukraine. And
on the other hand, the economic cost for the Europeans and the US could present
Western leaders with protestations about the original dynamic behind the war –
namely the question of Ukraine’s membership of NATO. Many do not agree with
Western leaders that NATO membership deserves risking a world war, and many also
sympathize with the notion that Russia is defending its national security from
NATO expansion, despite opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The war for security guarantees has taken the European continent into a
dangerous watershed, closing down the door to diplomacy. It will be a long ride,
and there will be much more to say.
Biden's Political Myopia Endangering Europe: Allow the
EastMed Pipeline
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 28, 2022
Biden surprised EastMed partners by abruptly withdrawing U.S. support for the
pipeline on January 9, thereby effectively killing the project, preventing a
diversified supply of energy to Europe, and further assuring even greater
revenues for Russia and its war machine.
"The Biden Administration's actions in this matter are particularly
objectionable and hypocritical in light of its tacit approval of Russia's Nord
Stream pipeline, which will only deepen Europe's energy dependence on a volatile
adversary." — U.S. Representative Gus Bilirakis, January 24, 2022.
As Biden was busy undercutting three staunch U.S. allies in the Mediterranean
[Cyprus, Israel and Greece] to appease Erdoğan and a fantasy of "green energy"
-- that is years from being either ready or affordable -- to appease America's
Democrat Party, Ankara would once again prove to be only a part-time Western
ally.
"During the vote [against Russia]... Turkey decided to abstain," Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said. "We don't want to break off the dialogue with
Russia."
Biden should immediately reverse his decision and permit the EastMed pipeline.
In December 2019, Biden had described Erdoğan as an autocrat and promised to
empower Turkey's opposition parties through democratic processes. Was that a
joke, or is Biden a crypto-fan of Erdoğan?
President Joe Biden surprised EastMed partners by abruptly withdrawing U.S.
support for the pipeline on January 9, thereby effectively killing the project,
preventing a diversified supply of energy to Europe, and further assuring even
greater revenues for Russia and its war machine. "The Biden Administration's
actions in this matter are particularly objectionable and hypocritical in light
of its tacit approval of Russia's Nord Stream pipeline, which will only deepen
Europe's energy dependence on a volatile adversary," said U.S. Representative
Gus Bilirakis (pictured) in response. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for
Netflix)
Once again U.S. President Joe Biden's strategic miscalculation is coming with a
strategic cost: appeasing NATO's pro-Putin, part-time ally Turkey and
jeopardizing Europe's energy security.
The past several years saw the East Mediterranean turning into a slow-fuse time
bomb sitting over rich hydrocarbons claimed questionably by Turkey as a
stand-alone regional force versus an alliance of Greece, Cyprus and Israel.
In this tug-of-war, Turkey threatened to take military action if the alliance of
rival countries went ahead with its plans to bypass Turkey and transport an
annual 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe with a planned
underwater pipeline. Turkey alleges that any such pipeline would violate its
sovereignty over the Mediterranean and proposes, instead, unsurprisingly, a less
costly pipeline carrying natural gas to Europe through Turkish territory.
Other countries in the region such as Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and the Gulf states
supported what later became the EastMed group, also favored by the European
Union and United States. Until recently.
Biden recently surprised EastMed partners by abruptly withdrawing U.S. support
for the pipeline, thereby effectively killing the project, preventing a
diversified energy supply to Europe, and further assuring even greater revenues
for Russia and its war machine. The White House said the $7 billion project was
antithetical to its "climate goals." Biden presumably hopes no one will actually
still be using fossil fuels by 2025, the date for the planned completion of the
EastMed pipeline, although alternatives -- apart from energy supplied by
adversaries of America -- such as Russia and Iran -- are nowhere near ready. The
Biden administration also cited a supposed lack of economic and commercial
viability, even though a 2019 study financed by the European Union confirmed
that "the EastMed Project is technically feasible, economically viable and
commercially competitive."
Few people agreed with Biden's reasoning.
Greek defense analyst Theofrastos Andreopoulos wrote that Biden's decision was a
triumph for Turkey and a defeat for Greece:
"In short, this means that Turkey, which supposedly was falling into disfavor
with the Americans, got exactly what it wanted: the cancellation of the
pipeline.
"The most important parameter in the non-paper justifying the U.S. position,
beyond the economic and commercial elements, points out that this pipeline is
a source of tension in the Eastern Mediterranean — clearly taking the position
of Turkey!
"That is, the Americans do not want the pipeline because Ankara might 'get
angry.'"
Also unsurprisingly, the U.S. move further emboldened Turkey's Islamist
president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has never hidden his neo-Ottoman,
irredentist ambitions over what once was considered the "Turkish lake": the
Aegean and the Mediterranean.
In a January 18 speech, Erdoğan said that, "Without [a pipeline passing through]
Turkey, Mediterranean gas cannot be brought to Europe."
Biden's U-turn came at a time when Turkey is flexing muscles in the Aegean and
Mediterranean Seas. Ignoring severe budgetary constraints and a punishing
economic crisis, the Turkish government is developing and building for the Navy
three new frigates, unmanned anti-submarine warfare vessels, submarines,
unmanned surface vessels, an intelligence gathering ship, assault boats, an
indigenous anti-ship missile and a $1.2 billion landing helicopter dock.
More importantly, Biden's gross miscalculation came only a few weeks before
Russia invaded Ukraine and announced its dictates to redraw Europe's energy map.
Shortly after Russia formally recognized two breakaway regions in eastern
Ukraine, Donesk and Luhanz, Germany on February 22 announced that it was
suspending the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea natural gas pipeline project, designed
to double the flow of Russian gas directly to Germany and Western Europe, and
bypass Ukraine. Nord Stream 2, worth $11 billion and possibly Europe's most
divisive energy project, was finished in September, but has stood idle pending
certification by Germany and the EU. Germany therefore was "heroically"
suspending something that was not operational in the first place.
"Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay
€2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!" tweeted Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's
former president and prime minister, and now deputy chairman of its Security
Council -- suggesting that because of the suspension, prices were set to double.
Warnings about the consequences of killing the EastMed Pipeline -- and thereby
preventing the diversification of energy supplies to Europe -- arrived shortly
before Russia's military incursion. Evidently, it was just another clear message
that Biden preferred to ignore. According to a January 24 press release
published on the congressional website of U.S. Representative Gus Bilirakis:
"As natural gas is a cleaner energy option when compared to coal, it is a
crucial energy source for governments seeking to transition to greener energy
sources.. The European Union recognizes this fact and has declared the Eastern
Mediterranean Pipeline a 'special project.'
"'The Biden Administration's actions in this matter are particularly
objectionable and hypocritical in light of its tacit approval of Russia's Nord
Stream pipeline, which will only deepen Europe's energy dependence on a volatile
adversary,' said Congressman Bilirakis."
As Biden was busy undercutting three staunch U.S. allies in the Mediterranean to
appease Erdoğan and a fantasy of "green energy" -- that is years from being
either ready or affordable -- to appease America's Democrat Party, Ankara would
once again prove to be only a part-time Western ally.
On February 25 , in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Turkey abstained
from voting on suspending Russia's membership in the Strasbourg-based Council of
Europe. "During the vote in Strasbourg, Turkey decided to abstain," Turkish
Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said. "We don't want to break off the dialogue
with Russia."
Biden should immediately reverse his decision and permit the EastMed pipeline.
In December 2019, Biden had described Erdoğan as an autocrat and promised to
empower Turkey's opposition parties through democratic processes. Was that a
joke, or is Biden a crypto-fan of Erdoğan?
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Erdogan Moves to Censor Western Media But not Russian
Propaganda
Aykan Erdemir/Policy Brief/February 28/2022 |
Turkey’s media regulator, RTUK, posted three official notifications on February
21 threatening to block Western broadcasters Deutsche Welle (DW), Euronews, and
Voice of America (VOA), unless they obtain internet broadcast licenses within 72
hours. Coming on the heels of Russia’s move to withdraw the press credentials of
all DW staff and shutter the German public broadcaster’s Moscow studio, Ankara’s
threat is facilitating the Kremlin’s campaign to silence Western media outlets.
RTUK’s move against these American, French, and German broadcasters marks the
first time Turkey’s media regulator has targeted international media outlets
using an authority the country’s Islamist-ultranationalist ruling coalition
created with a 2019 regulation aimed at silencing critical online reporting.
Ankara has not made similar demands from either Russia’s public broadcaster
Sputnik, whose Turkish service has thrived while pushing the Kremlin’s
propaganda unhindered, or Beijing’s propaganda channel, China Radio
International.
Both DW and VOA pushed back against Ankara by declaring they will appeal RTUK’s
threatened ban. Acting VOA Director Yolanda López said, “Voice of America’s
independent journalism cannot be subject to this or any government’s control
which results either in censorship or even the perception of it.” DW Director
General Peter Limbourg warned that RTUK’s move “does not relate to formal
aspects of broadcasting, but to the journalistic content itself.” He added that
the 2019 regulation “gives the Turkish authorities the option to block the
entire service based on individual, critical reports unless these reports are
deleted. This would open up the possibility of censorship.”
While his government joins Russia’s campaign to silence Western media, Turkey’s
Islamist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to pose as a critic of
Moscow’s aggression. On February 25, Erdogan criticized the West for “for being
late in offering its concrete support” to Ukraine. “The EU and all the rest of
the West have failed to display a decisive and serious stance,” he said. Yet
Erdogan has failed to take any punitive measures against Russia and refused to
join in any of the Western sanctions targeting the Kremlin.
This is not the first time that Erdogan has enabled Russia by playing a spoiler
role within NATO. Ankara reportedly watered down the wording of NATO’s April 15,
2021 statement expressing solidarity with the United States over Russia’s
cyberattacks on U.S. government agencies. Erdogan did the same to NATO’s April
22, 2021 statement voicing concern over Russian military intelligence’s blowing
up of ammunition storage depots in the Czech Republic in 2014. Ankara also
blocked a NATO defense plan for Poland and the Baltic states for over six months
until June 2020, prompting The New York Times to label Turkey “NATO’s ‘Elephant
in the Room.’”
In response to the Erdogan government’s targeting of Western broadcasters, the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee on February 23 tweeted, “A free and
independent media is critical and must not be subjected to government control or
censorship. Turkey has to respect and ensure freedom of expression.” The Biden
administration, however, continued its radio silence over Turkey’s democratic
backsliding and abysmal human rights record.
If Erdogan knows that there will be no real consequences, he will persist with
his plans to block Western media outlets, whose independent reporting continues
to embarrass him and his fellow autocrat Russian President Vladimir Putin. If
the Biden administration wants to fulfil its promise of a human rights-centered
foreign policy, it needs to stand behind the U.S. public broadcaster VOA and
other Western media outlets threatened by autocratic regimes.
As for Erdogan, if he wants to prove the veracity of his statements of support
for Ukraine, the least he can do is to allow Western broadcasters to continue to
reach Turkish audiences unhindered so that they can push back against the
propaganda spouted by Russia’s and China’s Turkish services.
*Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish parliament and senior director
of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where
he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For
more analysis from Aykan, the Turkey Program, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE.
Follow Aykan on Twitter @aykan_erdemir. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP.
FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
Germany at Critical Juncture amid Ukraine War
Daniel Gerlach/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 28/2022
Rarely has a German government appeared so steadfastly decided than when it
announced its response to the Russian assault on Ukraine. During an emergency
session of the German Bundestag on Sunday the tripartite coalition announced a
number of punitive measures against Russia, recurring to an almost martial tone,
atypical to German foreign policy lingo. Even the leftist opposition party known
for its anti-NATO rhetoric and flair for president Putin’s narratives, presented
its mea culpa and admitted that it had been taken in by a malicious deceit: who
would have thought Putin could do such a thing?
“The war in Ukraine has wakened us from a long self-righteous dream,” said
Germany’s liberal finance minister when he announced his government’s decision
to provide 100 billion Euros of additional funding to the Bundeswehr, Germany’s
notoriously depleted armed forces. The minister didn’t have to lay out what he
meant by “self-righteous dram” in detail. Everyone in the historical Reichstag
building, situated on the former Iron Curtain and today a symbol for end of the
Cold War, knew. The treacherous idea that all problems can be solved with
reason, mutually beneficial business relations and good faith. Until February 22
wars between sovereign nations in Germany’s vicinity had belonged forever to the
past.
On the eve of this historical session, Chancellor Scholz had decided another
dramatic turn-around in the country’s foreign and defense policy: Germany
provides anti-tank weapons and portable surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. By
giving in to the requests of CDU opposition leaders and of various other
European leaders, including the Ukrainian president himself, Germany changed a
position that it had firmly defended hitherto: No delivery of weapons into hot
conflict zones unless a NATO ally under attack invokes the mutual defense
guarantee. This is even more remarkable since the new government composed of
Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals had promised an even stricter policy on
arms export control than its predecessor. Ukraine changed this all.
The last time Germany deviated from the aforementioned formula was when it
supported Kurdish Peshmerga in fending off ISIS militants in Northern Iraq.
Sarcastically said, Putin and ISIS enjoy the same degree of sympathy in Berlin.
But there is some truth to this equation: When ISIS built its territorial hub
for global terrorist attacks, Germany felt that its own security was threatened.
And this is how it feels today.
We do not know yet how the weapons will be delivered and if they will come too
late. However, this move is a gesture of solidarity to the NATO allies. Being
“reliable” has for a long time been Germany’s aspiration and a value of its
foreign policy itself. But it is also meant to be a gesture of defiance to the
Russian leadership. The namby-pamby and mercantile Federal Republic in the heart
of Europe would not be intimidated by Putin’s announcement that whoever got into
Russia’s way to support the enemy would be met with unprecedented rage.
This is a critical and painful moment for the German government with its
progressive and, as far as foreign policy is concerned, rather inexperienced
team. When the coalition was sworn in last autumn it announced a great struggle
on climate change, energy consumption, the pandemic and gender inequality.
Confronting Russia in Ukraine was not on the agenda, though the conflict had
been smoldering for years.
For the Greens and the Social Democrats, the historical irony lies in the fact
that, when they last governed Germany together in the 1990s, war was waged in
former Yugoslavia and Kosovo. In 1998 their decision to participate in a
NATO-led air campaign entailed a severe controversy at their respective
constituencies, in particular for the Green Party which had emerged from a
fundamentally pacifist grassroot movement. Moreover, Russia has time and again
characterized this war on Russian-aligned Yugoslavia as an original sin: a
unilateral Western aggression and a show of contempt to Moscow’s interest and
its good will. Now the Greens and the Social Democrats have to deal with the
aftershocks of the Cold War again and with the Russian version of “what comes
around goes around”.
Chancellor Scholz said on Sunday that Germany would not decline any invitation
to diplomacy but that “talking for the sake of talking” was no longer an option.
This is what many have accused Germany of before, namely that it was naïve to
believe it could talk reason into Putin. After all, Germany has a long legacy of
liaising with Moscow, since the times of peace Chancellor Willy Brandt in the
1970s through Helmut Kohl’s negotiations with the Soviet leader Gorbachev to the
personal, however controversial, friendship of between former Chancellor Gerhard
Schröder with Putin. Germany’s current president Frank-Walter Steinmeier served
twice as foreign minister and was the chief-architect of the so-called Minsk
format to deal with the crisis in Ukraine after Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Chancellor Scholz’s previous hesitation to threaten Russia with specific
sanctions if it invaded Ukraine was certainly influenced by this tradition.
Germany should play a mediating role. When other Western leaders had already
concluded that Putin had made up his mind (or lost it) and was determined to
invade, Scholz and his cabinet still seemed hesitant. Either because they
thought Putin was bluffing and could be reasoned with or because they were
afraid that such a step would further provoke the Russian leader. That Moscow
had “lied to our faces”, as the German Foreign Minister Baerbock put it, adds a
personal dimension to this all. Russia had made their government look foolish,
adding insult to injury.
A final and decisive aspect of Germany’s complex relations with Russia is
energy. Most of Germany’s gas imports come from the East. When Russian Gazprom
became the shirt sponsor of one of Germany’s most popular football clubs, it was
a symbol of a mutual reassurance: We do business with Russia and, as long as
Russia depends on us paying for their bills, we can do away with any problem.
The Russian-German pipeline project Nordstream 2 was built in this spirit, with
lots of lobbying from various political and business leaders. As a result of the
current crisis, Nordstream 2 will, for the time being, not be opened by Germany,
citing national interest and security over private sector contractual
arrangements. Far more impactful could be the decision to exclude Russian banks
from the SWIFT system. It may lead to the situation that Germany and other
European countries will be cut off from Russian gas supply for at least some
time.
Germany announced this Sunday that it will build two LNG terminals to be able to
process deliveries from gas suppliers, such as the United States and Qatar. Some
in Germany see this also as a result of aggressive US lobbying – or bullying –
to buy American gas instead of Russian. Putin gave it the final push.
This crisis hits Germany when it is most vulnerable since it finds itself in the
middle of an ambitious transformation project, with the government powering down
nuclear and coal-fired energy production almost simultaneously and turning to
green renewables. Prices for energy are rocketing and the captains of Germany’s
export-oriented industry have flagged that this may threaten the country’s
ability to compete. This situation may also shift the focus to Europe’s southern
neighbors, in particular those energy suppliers who position themselves as
partners in energy, security and attempts of peaceful conflict resolution. In
this context it was noted in Berlin that, whereas one Arab member had already
started filling LNG reserve tanks on the European continent, another one
abstained from voting on the US and EU sponsored UNSC resolution to condemn the
Russian invasion, siding with India and China and thereby quite symbolically
turning to the East.
Russia-Ukraine: Every Imperial Resurrection is a Costly
Illusion
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 28/2022
Historians may describe the period between the First World War and today as one
of conflict over empire: empires’ disintegration as a result of this war and the
subsequent continuous attempts to rebuild them, attempts that cost many wars and
a lot of blood and destruction. This happened in Russia, Central Europe,
Germany, Japan, and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. Resurrecting defunct empires
has always been a costly illusion that indicates the scale of their opposition
to the prevailing socio-political framework, as well as the frameworks that
shape economic ties and cultural exchange, thus indicating a refusal to accept
this rising tide. The nation-state and then democracy were, and still are, the
declared opponents of these resurrection attempts.
The imperial resurrectionists of the world thus acquired a number of
characteristics:
- Putting the “glorious” past ahead of the “lousy” present. With them, the past
does not pass.
- Putting the non-European ahead of the European, not exclusively in the
geographical sense but in the sense of the link between the European dimension,
then the European-American dimension, and democracy.
- Similarly, might is put ahead of free peoples’ choices in foreign relations
and tyranny ahead of a democratic political system domestically.
Together, these characteristics make those defined by them reactionary,
backward-looking, and vicious.
Recently, with his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin declared himself the
world’s primary imperial resurrectionist and thus the most prominent leader of
the global counter-revolution vis a vis the 1989 revolutions that liberated
several nations from the bond of Soviet slavery after the USSR itself collapsed
and granted them free and independent states.
Imperial resurrection acquired its anti-revolutionary tint very explicitly and
indicatively: in response to the massive transformations achieved by the “color
revolutions” in turning revolution into a civil and civilized concept, violence
and raw power relations were re-introduced. In response to “civil society” and
its organizations, the banner of “military society” was raised high. Then, in
response to small states enjoying their sovereignty and freedoms, it declared,
with extreme viciousness, that only empires, even when they are mere imaginary
projects, can be sovereign and free.
It is not difficult to list the features that define the nature of the Putinist
attempt. After early drills on restoring the Soviet Union, which Putin did not
restrain himself from mourning (Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, and Syria 2015 to
complement and expand imperial prestige), Moscow reiterated its rejection of
“NATO heading East,” without taking a moment to consider the peoples of the
East’s desire to head West.
Russia has also focused heavily on the affairs of Russians outside the country
in a manner resembling the Nazis’ emphasis on the German minority’s
“persecution” in the border regions of the Sudetenland, which paved the way for
invading Czechoslovakia. Russia’s economic conditions have been hit hard by this
military policy. The Russians’ economy is still founded on exporting raw
materials, while people, as we know, are nothing more than the fuel that powers
the imperial project.
As for the domestic and foreign atmosphere around Putin’s war, it has turned
“Eurasianism” and “cohesion from Lisbon to Vladivostok” into a sick joke of
absolutist Asiatic tyranny. We get this impression from the following
developments: All of Europe is now against Putin, and he is against all of
Europe and is threatening it with nuclear weapons. His biggest ally is China,
and his smallest allies are Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese and Palestinian
subordinates.
Protesting against wars is forbidden in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the
activists who did protest were dragged to jail cells (compare that to the
protests against the Vietnam War in the US, the Iraq war in Britain, and the
Lebanon war in Israel...). Don’t forget that we are talking about a regime that
has been ruled by the same person since 2000, be it directly or circuitously, a
man whose constitutional amendments allow him to remain president until 2036.
The fact is that Putin, who has borrowed the term “people’s republics”- which he
used to describe the two separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk- from the Soviet
dictionary, is daunted by having inherited the Soviet Union, first and foremost
as a military concept. “Socialism in one country” was built for the sake of this
concept, and defending it became the task of the world’s communists. Hungary and
Czechoslovakia were invaded, and Poland was almost invaded, for its sake, while
the communist parties of countries like Greece in Europe and Iraq in the Middle
East were sacrificed in the same vein.
Among the reasons paving the way for Putinism is the fact that Sovietism, as a
military concept, was never reviewed as critically as fascism was reviewed after
the Second World War. Most of those who wanted to remain “leftists” and ended up
Putinists merely brushed over that experience or considered its repudiation a
foregone conclusion that goes without say. Thus, an old and grim value system
that revolves around power and aggression was perpetuated. Among the sad
consequences of that value system is that to some, Volodymyr Zelensky’s past as
a comedian is more scandalous than Putin’s past as an intelligence officer of
the Soviet empire.
Recently, some have justifiably raised their voices to say that the sanctions
being imposed on Putin and Russia today should have been imposed on the same
scale after the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the first invasion of Ukraine eight
years ago, or the invasion of Syria seven years ago. This did not happen,
allowing the costly imperial illusion to go along its way unimpeded. It is most
likely that democratic societies, which were shocked by the recent invasion,
will begin questioning many of the previous period’s myths on how to deal with
imperial resurrection projects. The biggest of these myths was that it is better
not to interfere in support of freedom or to deter those butchering it.
America between Analysis and Emotion
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 28/2022
American policy on Ukraine comes from mixing analytical thinking among the
national security experts with emotions among the American public that influence
politicians. On the analytical side, there was an argument among experts and
officials about whether the expansion of NATO to former Communist countries,
like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, after the Cold War provoked this Russian
invasion of the Ukraine. That argument now is settled in Washington. The winning
side firmly believes that Putin is a dangerous dictator who wants to recreate
the old Russian empire or the Soviet Union. They warn that if the world does not
stop Putin now, he will attack another country again, for example the Baltic
states, and cause an even bigger war. Biden therefore, has been sending more
American forces to Europe; the number of American soldiers deployed in NATO
countries has grown from 65,000 last year to over 90,000 now. Within that bigger
deployment, the Americans have doubled the number of America forces in Poland to
9,000 and in Romania to 2,000. There is no debate here about increasing the
number of American military forces on the border with Ukraine near Russian
forces.
No American politician has called for American forces to enter Ukraine and fight
the Russians; everyone understands the risks of a nuclear war. And there is also
an analytical understanding from experience with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq as well
as Iran and Syria now that sanctions, even tough sanctions, have only a limited
impact on dictators. But here is where the emotional side of America arrives.
The scenes on television and social media of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers
fighting a desperate war against a bigger and ruthless enemy is provoking the
traditional American sympathy for the weaker side in a fight. In addition, some
American cities like New York and Chicago have big Ukrainian-American
communities. Churches in many cities are organizing special prayers for Ukraine.
In this emotional climate, American popular sympathy for Ukraine and anger at
Moscow is generating demands that Washington take more measures.
The biggest push will be for more sanctions. The European Union just imposed
sanctions on President Putin’s personal assets and those of Russian Foreign
Minister Lavrov. The Biden administration had hesitated but the European action
will probably compel Biden to do the same and find other sanctions too. The
analytical and emotional sides of America both arrive at the conclusion that
Washington should not start World War III but it must do more to punish Russia
and try to help Ukraine.
A good political observer of American politics would pay special attention to
the evolution of the Republican Party’s position in the past week. A prominent
American senator who had showed support for the January 6 attack on the Congress
building, Josh Hawley, was saying earlier this year that Washington must reject
Ukraine joining NATO. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has big
political ambitions, in January said he had enormous respect for Putin and
called him a “talented statesman.” Last Tuesday and Wednesday former President
Trump praised Putin as a strong leader and Trump even called Putin a genius.
After the invasion started and the public emotions rose, Trump is isolated. The
Republican Party’s general position is becoming criticism of Biden for being
weak and demanding a bigger response against Russia. Pompeo, considering the
emotional climate here, changed his tone and said on Thursday that Washington
must impose bigger costs on Putin in order to deter more Russian aggression.
Hawley is now urging Biden to impose bigger sanctions on Russia, including on
its energy sector.
The Biden administration until now has avoided imposing sanctions on Russian
energy exports due to worries about rising energy prices. So far, the business
sector is not expecting that production from American oil shale will increase,
and thus companies expect that energy prices will remain high. Biden for the
first time on Thursday admitted that the price of gasoline for American drivers
will rise. In addition, the Ukraine crisis will disrupt some Ukrainian and
Russian grain exports and raise world food prices. Even before the crisis in
Ukraine inflation of prices in the American economy is the highest in forty
years. You can see the worries about higher inflation on the American stock
market. Forty years ago, in response to price inflation the Federal Reserve
raised interest rates so high, to 21 percent, creating a terrible economic
recession. (I graduated from university and it was very hard to find a job.) The
timing then was terrible for President Jimmy Carter’s re-election campaign. I
doubt interest rates will reach 20 percent, but the timing appears to be bad
again for the Democratic Party, eight months before important elections for
Congress.