English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 01/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to them, ‘The light is with you for a little longer. Walk while you have the light, so that the darkness may not overtake you. If you walk in the darkness, you do not know where you are going
John 12/31-36: “Now is the judgement of this world; now the ruler of this world will be driven out. And I, when I am lifted up from the earth, will draw all people to myself.’He said this to indicate the kind of death he was to die. The crowd answered him, ‘We have heard from the law that the Messiah remains for ever. How can you say that the Son of Man must be lifted up? Who is this Son of Man?’ Jesus said to them, ‘The light is with you for a little longer. Walk while you have the light, so that the darkness may not overtake you. If you walk in the darkness, you do not know where you are going. While you have the light, believe in the light, so that you may become children of light.’ After Jesus had said this, he departed and hid from them.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 31-June 01/2022
Lebanon’s New Parliament Narrowly Elects Longtime Speaker
Berri reelected as speaker with 65 votes as opposition cast message-filled ballots
Re-elected Berri says will meet 'white votes' with a 'white heart'
Bou Saab elected deputy speaker with 65 votes, Skaff gets 60
Berri discusses binding PM consultations with Aoun
Aoun hopes new parliament will be able to 'rescue Lebanon'
LF MP: Once again, the establishment has protected itself
Bassil: We didn't vote for Berri and we don't have the majority
Hamdan, Doueihi withdraw from 'sectarian' parliament secretary vote
Lebanon's Speaker Nabih Berri, undefeated guardian of status quo
Reformist MPs, families of port blast victims march from port to Parliament
Aging Japanese militant in Beirut marks 1972 Israel attack
Joint Israeli-Cypriot Drills Simulate Attack on Hezbollah
The Politics of Musical Chairs and Shiite Fascism Gambits/Charles Elias Chartouni/May 01/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 31-June 01/2022
UAE, Israel Sign Major Trade Pact
Saudi FM says Kingdom supports efforts aimed at ending Russia-Ukraine crisis
EU Leaders Ban Most Russian Oil, as Moscow Advances in Donbas
High-tech Race to Map Ukraine's Damaged Historic Buildings
8th Round of Syrian Constitutional Talks Kick off in Geneva
Syrian Regime Detains Criminal Involved in Tadamon Massacre
Protesters Chant ‘Death to Khamenei’ over Iranian Building Collapse
Israel, Iran Threaten to Expand Revenge Operations
Iranian, Tajik Presidents Discuss Afghanistan
Kadhimi: Scourge of Drugs Destroying Iraq’s Social Fabric
Rockets Fired at Iraq Military Base with Foreign Troops
Calls Mount in Iraq to Dissolve Parliament
Int’l Community Welcomes Ending State of Emergency in Sudan Paving for Dialogue

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 31-June 01/2022
Jordan Has an Iran Problem. Can Israel and Saudi Arabia Unite to Combat It?/Jonathan Schanzer/The Dispatch/May 31/2022
Nuclear Iran NOT an "Acceptable Risk"/Peter Vincent Pry/Gatestone Institute./May 31/2022
How to Break Russia’s Blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea Ports/James Stavridis/Bloomberg/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Iran’s seizure of Greek tankers threatens regional maritime security/Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/May 31/2022
become a generation facing ongoing tyranny/Abraham Cooper and Johnnie Moore/Al Arabiya/May 31/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 31-June 01/2022
Lebanon’s New Parliament Narrowly Elects Longtime Speaker
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Lebanon's longtime parliament speaker who has held the post for 30 years, was reelected Tuesday for a seventh four-year term with the minimum number of votes required and despite multiple crises plaguing the nation.
Still, the slim majority in favor of Nabih Berri was a reflection of a shift in public opinion in the crumbling economy on the verge of bankruptcy. His reelection was practically guaranteed - even though more than a dozen new lawmakers won seats running on a reform platform. The new legislature is being ushered in as Lebanon remains in the grip of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history, rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling class, which has been running the country since the end of the civil war. To most Lebanese, Berri, an 84-year-old former warlord, is a symbol of this entrenched sectarian-based political system and ruling class, which continues to hold despite rising discontent and the new reform-minded lawmakers to won seats. But as leader of the Shiite Amal movement, which is closely allied with the powerful Hezbollah, Berri is virtually untouchable. The two parties hold all 27 seats allotted to Shiites in parliament. The May 15 election was the first since Lebanon's economic crisis began in late 2019, sparking nationwide mass protests against the political class. The new parliament is deeply divided with no coalition holding majority seats in the 128-member legislature. The Hezbollah party and its allies lost the majority they had held since 2018, and now hold 61 seats - four short of an absolute majority.
The 128-seat assembly voted 65 in favor of Berri, while 23 ballots were blank and 40 were annulled. The 13 independent candidates, drawn from the 2019 protest movement, and some of the Christian parties in parliament have said they will not vote for Berri, leaving him with a much slimmer support, mainly from Shiite parties belonging to the Hezbollah-led coalition. Berri was the only candidate for the post of speaker, which under Lebanon’s power-sharing agreement is held by a Shiite. Ahead of the session, some of the independents and new legislators, gathered outside Beirut’s port - the scene of a massive explosion in August 2020 that killed more than 200 people - and met with families of the victims who perished in the blast. After the meeting, they walked to Parliament, surrounded by hundreds of supporters chanting "thawra," revolution in Arabic.
The investigation into the port explosion, when hundreds of tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrate detonated, has been stalled for months amid legal challenges by officials charged by the investigative judge. "Beirut has the right to know who killed her," said independent legislator Yassin Yassin, in a reference to the bungled probe. Reflecting the divisions in parliament, many of the annulled ballots Tuesday had slogans written on them such as "justice for the victims of the port blast" and "justice for Loqman Slim," an anti-Hezbollah Shiite political activist who was found shot in his car last year. The presence of the independent lawmakers in the legislature is a major achievement - they went into the vote fragmented and faced intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties. It sends a strong message to politicians who have for decades held on  to their seats and continue to do so despite the economic meltdown, which has impoverished Lebanon and triggered the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-90 civil war. Tuesday's session is expected to reflect the legislature's divisions between pro- and anti-Hezbollah lawmakers who will likely find it difficult to work together to form a new government and enact desperately needed reforms.

Berri reelected as speaker with 65 votes as opposition cast message-filled ballots
Associated Press/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Speaker Nabih Berri was reelected Tuesday for his post with the votes of 65 MPs while 23 blank votes were casted and 40 others were canceled for containing political messages rather than a candidate's name. Heavy gunfire erupted in some Lebanese regions after the result was announced. The Lebanese Forces bloc cast ballots containing the name of their bloc, the Strong Republic, to stress that they did not vote for Berri. The MPs of the October 17 uprising and other independents meanwhile cast ballots carrying political messages such as "Justice for the Port Victims", "Justice for the Victims of Death Boats," "Justice for Those Injured by Parliament Police", "Justice for Raped Women" and "Lokman Slim".Berri has been reelected for a seventh four-year term. His reelection was practically guaranteed seeing as his Amal Movement and its ally Hizbullah won all 27 Shiite seats in the May 15 parliamentary elections. A deputy speaker and a parliament bureau will also be elected in the session. MP Elias Bou Saab of the Free Patriotic Movement and MP Ghassan Skaff, who is close to Druze leader Walid Jumblat, are competing for the deputy speaker post. The new legislature is being ushered in as Lebanon remains in the grip of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history, rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling class, which has been running the country since the end of the civil war. Elected on May 15, the new parliament is deeply divided with no coalition holding majority seats in the 128-member legislature. Hizbullah and its allies lost the majority they had held since 2018, and now hold 61 seats — four short of an absolute majority. The 13 independent candidates, drawn from the 2019 protest movement, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces had said they would not vote for Berri, leaving him with a much slimmer support, mainly from Shiite parties. The presence of the independent lawmakers in the legislature is a major achievement — they went into the vote fragmented and faced intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties. It sends a strong message to politicians who have for decades held on to their seats and continue to do so despite the economic meltdown, which has impoverished Lebanon and triggered the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-90 civil war. Tuesday's session is expected to reflect the legislature's divisions between pro- and anti-Hizbullah lawmakers who will likely find it difficult to work together to form a new government and enact desperately needed reforms.

Re-elected Berri says will meet 'white votes' with a 'white heart'
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
"I will put the insults behind me... and approach the 'white votes' with a white heart," Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said Tuesday, in one of his trademark quips, after being re-elected as parliament speaker for a seventh consecutive term. 65 lawmakers elected Berri while 23 blank votes were casted and 40 were canceled. Berri said he would extend his hand to all lawmakers so that, together, they can streamline overdue reforms and facilitate the appointment of a prime minister and a new president. "The Lebanese, and the rest of world, are looking to you as a beacon of hope, possibly the only one," Berri told lawmakers. "We all live if Lebanon lives."He called for a Parliament that strengthens civil peace and national unity and for ending sectarianism and the splitting of quotas in Lebanon. Berri urged the MPs not to give up Lebanon's rights and not to normalize or compromise its resources. He also called them to protect the depositors' rights. "Let the disagreement and the competition be for the best of Lebanon and the Lebanese," Berri concluded.

Bou Saab elected deputy speaker with 65 votes, Skaff gets 60
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
MP Elias Bou Saab of the Free Patriotic Movement was on Tuesday elected deputy parliament speaker with 65 votes in the 128-seat legislature, as MP Ghassan Skaff, who is backed by the Progressive Socialist Party, garnered 60 votes. Bou Saab won 64 votes in the first round of voting, failing to garner the 65 votes needed to be elected from the first round. Skaff garnered only 49 votes in that round as 13 blank ballots were cast.“This is true democracy and I thank anyone who voted for me,” Bou Saab said after the vote. Admitting that the competition for the post was tough, Bou Saab noted that he was expected to win 61 or 62 votes, not 65. “We must forget everything that happened and put it behind our backs and we must enter with a new mentality and must work with everyone,” he added. “Everyone has called for reforms, and in my meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri, I promised that there are many issues that we should work on,” Bou Saab said. A lengthy debate later erupted over how parliament’s two secretaries should be elected. By convention, the two seats are reserved for a Maronite MP and a Druze MP. Speaker Nabih Berri later announced that two rounds of voting would be organized – the first to pick the Maronite secretary and the second to choose the Maronite. The new legislature is being ushered in as Lebanon remains in the grip of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history, rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the ruling class, which has been running the country since the end of the civil war. The May 15 election was the first since Lebanon's economic crisis began in late 2019, sparking nationwide mass protests against the political class. The new parliament is deeply divided with no coalition holding majority seats in the 128-member legislature. Hizbullah and its allies lost the majority they had held since 2018, and now hold 61 seats -- four short of an absolute majority.

Berri discusses binding PM consultations with Aoun
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri held talks Tuesday with President Michel Aoun at the Baabda Balace, in a protocol meeting that followed his re-election for a seventh term as parliament speaker. Asked whether the issue of binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier was discussed in the talks, Berri said: “Certainly.”Prime Minister Najib Miqati’s government became a caretaker government on May 22, in the wake of the May 15 parliamentary elections. Media reports have said that Berri, Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement prefer the re-nomination of Miqati for the post but “will not let him form a new government.”

Aoun hopes new parliament will be able to 'rescue Lebanon'
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday hoped the newly-elected parliament will manage to “rescue Lebanon” from its worst ever economic and financial crisis. “I hope the new parliament will be able to face the current challenges at all levels and to contribute to rescuing Lebanon from the economic and social crisis through devising the necessary legislation and laws, in order to achieve the necessary economic revival for the country,” Aoun said. He voiced his remarks during a protocol meeting at the Baabda Palace with Speaker Nabih Berri, who was re-elected as speaker earlier on Tuesday. Berri was accompanied by the new deputy speaker, Elias Bou Saab, and four new members of parliament’s bureau -- Alain Aoun, Michel Moussa, Hagop Pakradounian and Karim Kabbara.

LF MP: Once again, the establishment has protected itself
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
MP Pierre Bou Assi of the Lebanese Forces bloc on Tuesday lamented that the political establishment has “protected itself,” shortly after the election of Nabih Berri and Elias Bou Saab as parliament’s speaker and deputy speaker. “Once again, the establishment has protected itself. As for the Lebanese Forces, it has renewed the pledge of honor with the Lebanese and Lebanon,” Bou Assi tweeted. The LF had nominated MP Ghassan Hasbani for the deputy speaker post before withdrawing his nomination due to failure to win the support of the October 17 bloc.

Bassil: We didn't vote for Berri and we don't have the majority
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil announced Tuesday that his bloc did not vote for Speaker Nabih Berri in the parliament speaker election. “Our stance is known as to the parliament speakership vote, which is that we cast blank votes,” Bassil said after the election session. “As to the deputy speaker post, this battle has been postponed since four years,” Bassil added. “What happened today was democratic and it puts great responsibility on our shoulders,” Bassil went on to say, noting that all talk about minority and majority is incorrect. “It is nice to compete against each other with nobleness and honor, not treason accusations and skepticism,” the FPM chief added. And pointing out that “it is true” that the FPM’s candidates for deputy speaker and parliament secretary have won both races, Bassil said “this doesn’t mean that the majority is with us.”“Days will prove that the majority is a fluid concept and there should be less deals and compromises,” Bassil went on to say. Media reports had said that at least four members of Bassil's bloc would vote for Berri. Other reports said that Bassil's bloc would vote for Berri in return for obtaining the votes of the Speaker's bloc for its deputy speaker candidate, Elias Bou Saab.

Hamdan, Doueihi withdraw from 'sectarian' parliament secretary vote
Naharnet/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
MPs Firas Hamdan and Michel Doueihi, who are part of 13 MPs who represent the October 17 uprising, on Tuesday withdrew from a parliament vote to choose two new secretaries for the newly-elected legislature. The two young lawmakers withdrew following a lengthy debate between MPs and Speaker Nabih Berri over how the vote should be conducted. The debate eventually prompted Berri to call for two separate votes for the two posts – one for a Maronite secretary and another for a Druze secretary. Berri’s move, which aimed to conform to a long-standing sectarian norm, was supported by Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil and his bloc. “Out of our commitment to the stipulations of the constitution, which is a civilian one, we announce our withdrawal from the electoral race, MP Michel Doueihi and I, seeing as we did not nominate ourselves based on our sectarian affiliations,” Hamdan said.
MP Wael Abu Faour of the Progressive Socialist Party meanwhile stressed that Druze representation should be respected in the election of a parliament secretary, the same as a Shiite figure was elected as parliament speaker and a Greek Orthodox figure was elected as deputy speaker.“There is a norm,” Abu Faour argued. MP Paula Yacoubian for her part said that “this is the first time that we witness real voting for parliament’s bureau.”“Your entire country is built like this,” Berri responded. MP Alain Aoun of the FPM and MP Hadi Abu al-Hosn of the PSP were later elected as parliament secretaries, with Aoun garnering 65 votes and Abu al-Hosn winning uncontested following Hamdan’s withdrawal. MP Ziad Hawat of the Lebanese Forces meanwhile received 38 votes as Michel Doueihi garnered four votes. The MPs Hagop Pakradounian, Michel Moussa and Karim Kabbara were meanwhile named as members of the parliament bureau without a vote, seeing as they were the only candidates for the three seats. At the end of the session, Berri announced that the election of the heads and members of the parliamentary committees will be held next Tuesday, urging blocs to reach prior agreements in order to avoid the confusion that marred today’s session.

Lebanon's Speaker Nabih Berri, undefeated guardian of status quo
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Skillfully riding decades of turbulence and shifting political tides, Nabih Berri is returning for a seventh consecutive term as speaker of Lebanon's parliament, despite growing popular demands for fresh faces. At 84, he is one of the world's longest serving legislative chiefs, having held his post for the past 30 years, a feat no other Lebanese politician has accomplished. In a confessional system where the speaker's post is reserved for a Shiite Muslim, Berri has become one of his community's most successful leaders and one of the most influential political operatives in Lebanon's history. Famous for his quick wit and shrewd politicking, Berri won another four-year term on Tuesday, gaining votes from 65 of parliament's 128 members at their inaugural session. The tall, light-eyed politician heads the Amal Movement and is a close ally of Hizbullah. Together, the two parties hold all the 27 Shiite-allocated seats in parliament.
A lawyer by training, Berri was a militia leader during the 1975-1990 civil war and transitioned to politics as the conflict ended. His career since has mirrored the Shiite community's steadily rising clout in a country where it had long been marginalized both economically and politically.
Over the past three decades, he has fashioned himself into a mediator among Lebanon's deeply divided political factions and their foreign patrons, sealing his reputation as the indispensable guardian of the status quo. "There is no one else... that can play the role that he plays," Elie Ferzli, Berri's longest-serving deputy in parliament, told AFP.
Africa connection
Like many Lebanese from the south, Berri's parents looked towards Africa for opportunities. He was born in Sierra Leone on January 28, 1938. There, Berri became childhood friends with Jamil Said Mohamed -- nicknamed the country's "diamond king".Berri is widely believed to have amassed his early fortune alongside Jamil, who exercised near-presidential powers in Sierra Leone according to a 2002 report by that country's diplomat and academic Lansana Gberie. One of the most powerful Lebanese in Africa, Jamil influenced ministerial decisions and appointments and routinely violated government foreign exchange and banking regulations, Gberie says. Back in Lebanon, Berri earned a law degree from the state-run Lebanese University in 1963 before completing post-graduate law studies at the Sorbonne in Paris. During Lebanon's war, he rose to prominence by taking over the leadership of the Amal movement in 1980, two years after the mysterious disappearance in Libya of its founder, Imam Mussa Sadr. In 1984, he led his fighters in an uprising against the U.S.- and Israeli-backed regime of president Amin Gemayel. Between 1985 and 1988, he helped crush supporters of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in the so-called "war of the camps". In 1988, Amal fought a deadly power struggle with Hizbullah, which took control of almost all the Shiite southern suburbs of Beirut and swathes of Lebanon's Shiite-dominated south. Amal continued to fight against Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon until the latter withdrew in 2000.
Financial tentacles
Like many of Lebanon's warlords, Berri transitioned to politics when the frontlines went quiet, making himself an indispensable ally to Syria, which kept its troops in Lebanon. Berri was named minister several times between 1984 and 1992. That year, in the first elections after the war ended, Berri was simultaneously elected a member and speaker of parliament -- the highest post for a Shiite in the country's sectarian political system. Since Berri's entry into parliament, politicians aligned with him have virtually always won in legislative elections. He is known to speak off-the-cuff, even while chairing parliamentary sessions, which typically involve a lot of gavel-banging. For Western countries that cannot publicly hold meetings with Hizbullah, including the United States, Berri has become a main point of contact. Outside of politics, Berri commands a vast multinational business empire, with financial tentacles that are difficult to trace. Critics accuse him of filling up his coffers by syphoning off public funds and distributing key government jobs to his cronies. Berri and his wife Randa have long been accused of taking cuts off profits made through contracts with the Council for the South, a state-run development body, according to a leaked 2009 U.S. cable. In another leaked U.S. embassy cable, the Berri family's net worth was already estimated at around $2 billion in 2006. Berri is married and has nine children, six of them from a previous marriage.

Reformist MPs, families of port blast victims march from port to Parliament
Associated Press/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Reformist MPs born out of the 2019 protest movement gathered Tuesday outside Beirut's port and met with families of the port blast victims ahead of the first Parliament session. The independent lawmakers joined the victims' relatives in a symbolic march from the docks to parliament. They chanted "revolution" as they passed by Martyrs' Square -- the focal point of the 2019 protests. "This square will be our reference," said independent lawmaker Firas Hamdan, who stepped into parliament for the first time on Tuesday. The families of the victims urged for depoliticizing the investigation and for lifting immunities for ex-ministers wanted for questioning. The investigation into the port explosion, when hundreds of tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrate detonated, has been stalled for months amid legal challenges by officials charged by the investigative judge. "Beirut has the right to know who killed her," said independent legislator Yassin Yassin, in a reference to the bungled probe. The newly elected Oct. 17 MPs, in the symbolic march today, crossed from the streets to Parliament. Some of them had braved tear gas and rubber bullets, sometimes trying to scale the cement walls surrounding Lebanon’s parliament during anti-government protests. The reformist MPs arrived to Parliament as it convenes today to elect a parliament speaker. They will likely cast a blank vote for both Parliament Speaker and Deputy Speaker, as they said they refuse the "deals" of the traditional parties. Reformist MP Marc Daou arrived to parliament with a picture of the port blast victims, a blast that killed more than 200 people, injured thousands and devastated swathes of the city. It reignited in August 2020 the protests that had started in October 17. Lebanese voters on May 15 had elected a new parliament, including at least 13 independents and newcomers from the 2019 protest movement. That was a major achievement considering they went into the vote fragmented and facing intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties. Their showing sends a strong message to ruling class politicians who have held on to their seats despite an economic meltdown that has impoverished the country and triggered the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-90 civil war.

Aging Japanese militant in Beirut marks 1972 Israel attack
Associated Press/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
An aging Japanese militant who spent more than a decade in an Israeli prison for his part in a deadly attack on Tel Aviv's airport has showed up in Beirut at an event commemorating the 50th anniversary of the attack. Kozo Okamoto, 74, served 12 years in an Israeli lockup for a May 30, 1972 attack on the international airport outside Tel Aviv that was thought to be carried out by members of the Japanese Red Army guerrilla group. Twenty-six people were killed, including Christian pilgrims. Okamoto was freed in 1985 in a prisoner exchange between Israel and Palestinian guerrillas and has since gained political asylum in Lebanon where he has been living quietly for decades. The ceremony at a Beirut cemetery where many Palestinian militants are buried was organized by a radical Palestinian faction, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. It was attended by a few dozen people and officials from Lebanese and Palestinian factions including Hizbullah. The participants gathered around a memorial for four pro-Palestinian Japanese nationals. The 1972 attack on the airport was suspected to be a joint operation between the PFLP and the Japanese Red Army. Donning a Palestinian flag around his neck and the slogan of the PFLP, Okamoto looked frail as he walked toward the grave with the help of several men. He did not speak during his 30-minute visit to the cemetery and sometimes smiled and waved.
Okamoto's rare public appearance came two days after Fusako Shigenobu, who co-founded the Japanese Red Army, was released from prison in Japan after serving a 20-year sentence and apologizing for hurting innocent people. The Japanese Red Army, a violent ultra-leftist group that had links to Palestinian militants, was formed in 1971 and took responsibility for several international attacks, including the takeover of the U.S. Consulate in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 1975. The group is also suspected in the 1972 machine-gun and grenade assault on the airport known at the time as Lod airport. The PFLP is a radical faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization that gained notoriety after the simultaneous hijackings of four Western airliners in 1970 and the seizure of an Air France flight to Entebbe, Uganda. PFLP official Marwan Abdul-Aal told The Associated Press that Palestinians have always faced a double standard because when they resist Israeli occupation forces they are called terrorists. Meanwhile, Western countries now support Ukrainian resistance against invading Russian troops, he said. "The world is not fair and this is what those people used to say," Abdul-Aal said about Japanese fighters who supported the Palestinians. In the 1972 attack, Okamoto and two of his colleagues arrived in Tel Aviv on a flight from Europe, then collected their bags, in which they had packed rifles and grenades and opened fire, killing and wounding dozens, according to AP reports.
The two Japanese with Okamoto were killed in the attack while he was wounded. Okamoto was later put on trial in Israel and sentenced to life in prison. Okamoto and four other Japanese were arrested by Lebanese authorities in 1997 in eastern Lebanon after spending years illegally in the country, protected by Palestinian and Lebanese leftist groups during the chaotic days of the 1975-90 civil war. They were put on trial and the four were handed over to Japan in 2000 while Okamoto became the first person to get political asylum in Lebanon.
Japan has been demanding for years that Okamoto be handed over by Lebanon but Beirut has repeatedly rejected the demand. He is considered a hero by many in Lebanon and the Arab world for championing the Palestinian cause and opposing Israel.
During the opening session of his trial in Lebanon in 1997, Okamoto was asked if he had used a forged passport to enter Lebanon and he told the Beirut Criminal Court: "I don't understand why I am facing a charge of using a forged passport."
"I am an Arab resistance fighter," he said. "I did it for the Palestinian cause."

Joint Israeli-Cypriot Drills Simulate Attack on Hezbollah
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
The Israeli army announced on Monday that it had kicked off in Cyprus the third and final part of its massive exercises, dubbed “Beyond the Horizon.”Military sources in Tel Aviv said that the latest training simulates a scenario of war operations against the Hezbollah party in Lebanon, including a ground invasion. An official statement by the Israeli army spokesman said the training was conducted in cooperation with the Cypriot army, to maintain and boost the capabilities of the army in simulating a variety of emergency scenarios. It added that cooperation between the two armies would contribute to “increasing regional stability and the ability to face common challenges.”The military said both conscript and reserve troops from the 98th Paratroopers Division, along with air force units and other special forces — such as the Shayetet 13 navy unit — would participate in the drills in Cyprus. The Israeli army added that the exercise, which is managed by the National Center for Field Training, “is unique and the first of its kind and an opportunity to adapt and simulate the scenario of combat in an unfamiliar area, and to implement military missions and activities at great distances, during emergency and sudden situations…”
Political sources reported that Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz contacted on Monday his Cypriot counterpart, Charalambos Petrides, to discuss the importance of the two armies’ combat readiness within the framework of bilateral strategic cooperation and for the sake of regional stability. The Beyond the Horizon maneuver is one of the largest military exercises conducted by Israel since its establishment. It simulates a multi-front war in the north and south, with a focus on the northern front that includes Lebanon, Syria and Iran. The exercise, which will end on Friday, is expected to witness the bombing of long-range targets, about 2,000 km from the borders of Israel, and takes into consideration the possibility of partnering with the US military.

شارل الياس الشارتوني : سياسة الكراسي الموسيقية ومناورات الفاشية الشيعية
The Politics of Musical Chairs and Shiite Fascism Gambits
Charles Elias Chartouni/May 01/2022
Lebanese keep running after the illusion of an impending solution that fails to come about at every turn of their awkward political life. After a relative but important political change succeeding late elections, they find themselves confronted with the difficulties of engineering a coalition to counter the deadlocks set by Hezbollah.The risks of a fractured opposition plays fully into Hezbollah’s hands and perpetuates the impasses of the last sixteen years, at a time when the country is unraveling in every respect, and incremental entropies may yield an inevitable death. The kaleidoscopic opposition has no other chance but to unite around a consensual political program based on the restoration of sovereignty and structural governance reforms .
Two and a half years of deliberate stonewalling and sabotaging of reforms are not incidental facts, they are intentional policies which aim to break Statehood below the thresholds of sustainability, and make sure that Lebanon is made pliable to Iranian power politics, and transforms into a platform for subversion and international economic criminality. The stalemated Vienna negotiations were the litmus test of Iran’s intentions, and the War in Ukraine unveiled the competing agendas and their vectors, all along the geopolitical spectrum extending between Afghanistan and Turkey. Iran is zeroing in on its destabilization policy throughout the Middle East, doubling down on domestic repression, enhancing its nuclear thresholds, and relaying the Russians and Chinese in their endeavors to challenge the Liberal geopolitical political order set by the US after WWII.
Turkey’s jockeying and insidious games are resurfacing after a short interlude of dormancy, propelled by deferred imperial agendas, thwarted Middle Eastern ambitions, and contained political inroads in the EU. In such a context of political volatility, unhinged political and religious deliriums, Lebanon finds itself on the crossroads between internal decay and destructive power politics. The constitutional mandates revolving around elections, the election of the speaker of the assembly and his deputy, the formation of a viable cabinet and the presidential rotation are, unfortunately, under the mercy of power asymmetries, the brittleness of institutional life, and the state of political fragmentation which puts at stake the democratic framing of politics and its normative and constitutional standards.
The slim majority has to split the vote between the Parliament’s speaker and his deputy and make sure to undermine his ability to mastermind the parliament. its successful bid at the parliamentary level should strengthen its leverage, while negotiating the formation of a new cabinet, trying to preempt a tentative and extended void, and perpetuate the state of political subservience featured by the current cabinet and its predecessors. Otherwise, the fight for an independent presidency is essential, if we are to win the battle over the Iranian annexation of Lebanon and its countervailing dynamics. Lebanon has no chances recovering its sovereignty and reforming its governance, unless Shiites decide to normalize their political choices, adjust to the realities of a pluralistic democracy, and engage others in the search for consensual solutions to cataclysmic crises. Otherwise, the rest of us should search for alternative solutions.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 30-31/2022
UAE, Israel Sign Major Trade Pact
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Israel signed a free trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, its first big trade accord with an Arab state that reduces or removes tariffs and over time targets lifting annual bilateral trade to more than $10 billion. The pact was signed in Dubai by Israel's Minister of Economy and Industry Orna Barbivai and her counterpart, UAE Minister of Economy Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, after months of negotiations. Tariffs will be eliminated on 96% of goods with the UAE predicting the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement would boost bilateral trade to more than $10 billion a year within five years. Emirati trade minister Thani Al Zeyoudi said the trade deal wrote "a new chapter in the history of the Middle East." "Our agreement will accelerate growth, create jobs and lead to a new era of peace, stability, and prosperity across the region," he wrote on Twitter. The agreement has been signed amid escalating Israeli-Palestinian violence. The UAE foreign ministry on Monday condemned what it called a "storming" of Al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem by "extremist settlers under the protection of Israeli forces."That appeared to refer to visits by thousands of Jews, who revere the site as vestige of their two ancient temples, on the day marking Israel's capture of Jerusalem's Old City in a 1967 war. Some of the visitors prayed and held up Israeli flags - resulting, police said, in their removal. Al-Aqsa, also the third holiest site in Islam, is situated in East Jerusalem's Old City that Israel has annexed but is not recognized internationally. The foreign ministry, in the written statement, also asked "Israeli authorities to take responsibility for reducing escalation and ending all attacks and practices that lead to the continuation of tensions while underscoring the need to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further instability."President of the UAE-Israel Business Council Dorian Barak said the trade agreement defined tax rates, imports and intellectual property, which would encourage more Israeli companies to set up offices in the UAE, particularly in Dubai. The council predicts there will be almost 1,000 Israeli companies working in or through the UAE by the end of the year doing business with South Asia, the Far East and Middle East.
"The domestic market doesn't represent the entirety of the opportunity. The opportunity is really setting up in Dubai, as many companies have, in order to target the broader region," Barak told Reuters by phone. Emirati-Israeli trade reached $1.2 billion in 2021, according to official Israeli data. Ahead of the signing, Israel's economy ministry had said the accord would remove tariffs on food, agriculture, cosmetics, medical equipment and medicine. "Together we will remove barriers and promote comprehensive trade and new technologies, which will form a solid foundation for our common path, will contribute to the well-being of citizens and make it easier to do business," Israel's Barbivai said on Monday. Israel and the UAE established ties in September 2020 in a US brokered deal. Bahrain and Morocco also recognized Israel in the same year.

Saudi FM says Kingdom supports efforts aimed at ending Russia-Ukraine crisis
Arab News/May 31, 2022
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said the Kingdom supports efforts aimed at reaching a political solution to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis and achieve security and stability, Saudi Press Agency reported. During a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh on Tuesday, Prince Faisal said the Kingdom is ready to make the necessary efforts to contribute to such a solution. He affirmed the Kingdom’s position on the Russia-Ukraine crisis that is based on the foundations of international law. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan meets with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh. (SPA) The two ministers also reviewed bilateral relations between their countries and ways to enhance them, in addition to exchanging views on the latest developments in the region and the world and efforts exerted with regards to them. Lavrov also met with the Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Hussein Ibrahim Taha during his visit to Riyadh, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported. Earlier on Tuesday, he was welcomed at King Khalid International Airport by the Kingdom’s Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed bin Abdulkarim Al-Khuraiji. Lavrov also visited Bahrain on Tuesday where he met with Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, Bahrain News Agency reported.

EU Leaders Ban Most Russian Oil, as Moscow Advances in Donbas
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
European Union leaders have agreed to ban more than two-thirds of Russian oil imports, tightening economic screws on the country even as Moscow's forces press their offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. The compromise deal reached late Monday, meant to punish Russia for its invasion three months ago, cuts "a huge source of financing for its war machine," European Council chief Charles Michel tweeted. "Maximum pressure on Russia to end the war," he said. Leaders of the 27-nation bloc had met to negotiate the long-sought deal earlier Monday in Brussels, amid concerns raised by Hungary and other neighboring countries reliant on Russian fuel, AFP said. The agreement also includes plans for the EU to send nine billion euros ($9.7 billion) in "immediate liquidity" to Kyiv, Michel announced. Hours earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called an oil embargo the "key point" to any sanctions package. "I believe that Europe will have to give up Russian oil and oil products in any case, because this is about the independence of Europeans themselves from (weaponized) Russian energy," he said in his daily address to the nation. The Netherlands and Denmark on Tuesday were expected to join the growing list of European countries who have seen their gas shipments halted after refusing to pay Russian giant Gazprom in rubles, a demand meant to sidestep crippling Western sanctions. On the ground, Russian forces were making incremental gains in the Donbas region, including the industrial city of Severodonetsk, where they were edging closer to the city center. "The situation in Severodonetsk is as complicated as possible," Lugansk regional governor Sergiy Gaiday said on Telegram, saying the entire region was under continuous bombardment -- "air bombs, and artillery, and tanks. Everything".
- 'Must never happen again' -
As Europe announced its new sanctions on Moscow, Washington was taking a cautious line regarding weaponry for Ukraine. Ukraine has received extensive US military aid, with legislators approving another $40 billion assistance package in May. But US President Joe Biden said he would not send rocket systems that could hit Russian territory, despite urgent requests from Kyiv for exactly that. "We are not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia," Biden told reporters in Washington. His comments came as new US ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink -- filling a position vacant since 2019 -- and French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna both arrived in Kyiv. France will "continue to reinforce arms deliveries," Colonna said at a news conference with her Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba. The highest-ranking French official to visit the capital since Russia's invasion began February 24, Colonna also visited Bucha, near Kyiv, where Russian troops have been accused of committing war crimes against civilians. "This should never have happened," Colonna told reporters after visiting an Orthodox church in the town. "It must never happen again."Her visit came as a French journalist was killed while working in Ukraine. Frederic Leclerc-Imhoff was "on board a humanitarian bus" when "he was mortally wounded," French President Emmanuel Macron said on Twitter.
- Oil sanctions -
Participants in Monday's EU summit hatched a compromise deal that exempts deliveries by pipeline from the oil import ban, after Hungarian President Victor Orban warned halting supplies would wreck the country's economy. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said the ban "will effectively cut around 90 percent of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year". Michel said the sanctions also involved disconnecting Russia's biggest bank, Sberbank, from the global SWIFT system, banning three state broadcasters and blacklisting individuals blamed for war crimes. Russia's Gazprom, meanwhile, was set to halt gas supplies to the Netherlands on Tuesday, with Denmark likely to see the tap turned off as well. The Netherlands' partly state-owned energy firm GasTerra revealed the looming shut-off Monday, saying it would not comply with payment requirements that breach EU sanctions. Moscow has demanded clients from "unfriendly countries" -- including EU member states -- pay for gas in rubles as it attempts to avoid Western financial sanctions. Danish energy company Orsted also warned its gas shipments could be cut off when a May 31 payment deadline passed. Russia has previously halted deliveries to Finland, Bulgaria and Poland, a move blasted by the EU as "blackmail".
- Referendum cancelled -
With Russia facing the oil import ban, a Georgian breakaway region delivered another blow to Moscow's hopes for further unity among local allies, with the leader of South Ossetia scrapping a planned July referendum on joining Russia. The Moscow-controlled enclave's president, Alan Gagloev, warned Monday about "uncertainty of the legal consequences of the issue submitted to a referendum."Since failing to capture Kyiv in the war's early stages, Russia's army has narrowed its focus, hammering Donbas cities with relentless artillery and missile barrages. But Ukrainian forces are pushing back in the southern region of Kherson, the country's military leadership has said. On Monday, Ukraine's southern command center said they had driven Russian troops from the village of Mykolayivka. A day earlier, the army claimed to have pushed Russian forces into "unfavorable positions" around the villages of Andriyivka, Lozovo and Bilohorka, forcing Moscow to send reserves to the area.

High-tech Race to Map Ukraine's Damaged Historic Buildings
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Many of Ukraine's historic monuments have been destroyed in the three months since Russia invaded, but cultural experts are working to conserve their memory using cutting-edge technology and 3D scans. One of them is volunteer French engineer Emmanuel Durand, a specialist in 3D data acquisition, who is assisting a bevy of architects, engineers, historic building experts and a museum director to record buildings in Kyiv, Lviv, Chernigiv and Kharkiv. Durand steps over a jumbled pile of beams and crunches over the rubble that was once Kharkiv's 19th-century fire station. He plants his laser scanner, a sort of tripod with a pivoting head, in a strategic corner of the severely damaged building. The redbrick fire station and its watchtower, built in 1887, are a monument to Kharkiv's industrial revolution. Durand's gadget records the building from all angles. "The scanner records 500,000 points per second. We'll get 10 million points from this location. Then we'll change location and go round the whole building, outside and inside. A billion points in all," he explains. At the end of the day, Durand assembles all the data on a computer "like the pieces of a jigsaw" to digitally reconstruct the building. The result is a perfect reproduction, accurate to within five millimeters (a fraction of an inch) that can be rotated in any direction or sliced into sections. You can even see the holes where blast waves from explosions have damaged the structure. "This enables us to map out the building for the future. That could help us work out if anything has moved, which is important for safety purposes, and see what can be restored and what can't. It's also useful from a historical point of view," he says. "We've got the actual missile-damaged building and an exact replica of how it used to look."
- 'Cultural genocide'-
In Kharkiv alone, around 500 buildings are listed as being of historic architectural significance. Most are in the dense historic city centre, on which Russian airstrikes are concentrated, according to architect Kateryna Kuplytska, a member of the body documenting damaged heritage sites. She estimates that over a hundred of them have been hit already. And while Russian troops have loosened their noose around Ukraine's second city, shells still rain down with regular monotony. New explosions and blast waves, inclement weather, construction work and site visits will all contribute to hastening the destruction of these already weakened buildings, Kuplytska says. "That's why it's essential to record them in accurate detail so we can plan urgent interventions that will stabilize the structures" and preserve their memory, she explains. "Recording the destruction will also assist in criminal proceedings. We see serious damage to heritage across the whole country. It's genocide towards Ukrainian people and genocide towards Ukrainian culture," she says. After two days at the fire station, Durand moves on to the economics faculty at the Karazin National University in Kharkiv. It is located right next to the imposing headquarters of the Ukrainian secret services, which is being targeted by the Russians and has been hit on numerous occasions. The current iteration of the economics faculty was built in Soviet times. It was designed by Serhiy Tymoshenko, the father of the "modern Ukrainian" style of architecture of the early 20th-century, and is one of the country's first reinforced concrete structures. Some critics suggest it is futile to document historic buildings in such meticulous detail while the war is still raging and people are dying every day. But Tetyana Pylyptshuk, the director of the Kharkiv literary museum, begs to disagree. "Culture is the basis of everything. If culture had developed well, people probably wouldn't be dying and there wouldn't be a war," she said. Pylyptshuk, who also sits on the commission on damaged historical sites, has sent most of her museum collections to western Ukraine to protect them from damage -- and from looting, should Russian troops overrun Kharkiv. "Today, everyone realizes this. Maybe they were not so attentive to our cultural heritage before... but when you lose it, it hurts."

8th Round of Syrian Constitutional Talks Kick off in Geneva
Geneva - Asharq Al Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
The eighth round of the Syrian Constitutional Committee meetings, chaired by the United Nations Special Representative for Syria, Geir Pedersen, kicked off on Monday in Geneva, Switzerland. The meetings are held in the participation of members of the "Small Group" responsible for the writing of the constitution, consisting of 15 representatives each from the Bashar Assad regime, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and the Syrian opposition. Throughout this week, the parties will discuss four principles: Unilateral coercive measures from a constitutional standpoint, maintaining and strengthening State’s institutions, the supremacy of the Constitution and the position of international treaties, and transitional Justice. The Co-Chairs of both the government and the opposition agreed on those principles. They both held talks with Pedersen last Sunday. According to the meetings’ schedule, one day will be spent on each principle. On Tuesday, the UN envoy is scheduled to brief the Security Council member states on the outcome of the eighth round of the Syrian Constitutional talks during a closed session on the situation in Syria. The previous seven UN-led constitutional negotiations have not achieved significant progress due to procrastination on the Syrian regime’s part. On March 22, Pedersen had hoped to see the committee move substantively forward on its mandate to prepare and draft for popular approval of a constitutional reform during the talks in Geneva. But he said the co-chairs had, on the last day of talks, reached an understanding on a better mechanism to find common ground. The UN envoy had also told reporters that Syria remains one of the gravest crises in the world and there is a clear need for progress towards a political solution. The Syrian Constitutional Committee was created in September 2019 and first convened a month later. The tentative negotiations are aimed at rewriting the war-torn country's constitution, amid hopes it could pave the way towards a broader political process.

Syrian Regime Detains Criminal Involved in Tadamon Massacre
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
The Syrian regime detained Amjad Youssef, an officer in the Syrian security forces, who massacred dozens of Syrians and raped dozens of women in the Tadamon neighborhood in Damascus, according to a report issued Monday by the Syrian Network for Human Rights.
“The Syrian regime is now keeping Youssef in custody,” the Network said. However, it added that the detention process was not carried out according to a judicial warrant based on a specific charge, explaining that Youssef has not been referred to the judiciary and that the Syrian regime has not issued any information indicating his arrest. At the end of April 2022, New Lines, a magazine specialized in the Middle East affairs, published an investigation revealing that Youssef was working for Military Intelligence’s District Branch, also known as Branch 227 and was responsible for the arrest, torture and killing of thousands in the Tadamon neighborhood. Youssef had confessed to the mass killing. Fadel Abdul Ghany, founder and chairman of the Syrian Network for Human Rights, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Syrian regime would not have detained Amjad Youssef if regime bodies had not been involved in this atrocity at the highest levels. He said the Network received information that the Syrian regime had detained Youssef a month ago, following the publication of his confessions. “This reveals that high-ranking regime officials are involved in these crimes and that Youssef is just a small part of an integrated system,” Abdul Ghany said. He said the regime fears that more of those involved in similar crimes will be exposed, and, for this end, the regime might hide Amjad for life or kill him after he confessed his offenses. Abdul Ghany also said that the regime did not arrest any security services involved in committing similar atrocious violations nor did it hold anyone accountable. “The Syrian regime protects violators, and in some cases promotes them, so that they’re aware that their own fate is always linked to the regime’s fate, and defending it becomes an essential part of defending themselves,” he said. According to the Network’s report, the Syrian regime has systematically used enforced disappearance as one of its most prominent tools of repression and terrorism aimed at crushing and annihilating political opponents simply for expressing their opinion. It said Youssef and thousands of other members of the regime’s security services and army forces would not have committed such atrocious violations had they not been part of a deliberate policy implemented at the direct orders of Assad. The report called on the UN Security Council to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the fate of the forcibly disappeared persons in Syria and to act to end torture and deaths inside Syrian regime detention centers. The Syrian Network report also raised concern over the fate of 87,000 people documented as being forcibly disappeared in regime prisons, which may be similar to that suffered by the victims in al Tadamun neighborhood. It showed that the Syrian regime has detained, and continues to detain, at least 131,469 of the people arrested since March 2011, with 86,792 of this number classified as forcibly disappeared persons, including 1,738 children and 4,986 women.

Protesters Chant ‘Death to Khamenei’ over Iranian Building Collapse
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Protesters in several cities in Iran chanted anti-government slogans overnight, including "death to Khamenei", over a deadly building collapse in the southwest of the country, videos posted on social media showed.Officials said the death toll had risen to 34 on Tuesday, with another 37 injured in the May 23 collapse of the 10-storey residential and commercial building in Abadan in the oil-producing region of Khuzestan. Rescue workers continued to search for victims under the rubble, they said. Authorities are blaming the collapse of the Metropol Building on individual corruption and lax safety and say 13 people have so far been arrested for construction violations. Iranian protesters, however, blame it on government negligence and endemic corruption. Shouts of "death to Khamenei", a reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, are heard on an unverified video shared on Twitter, which gives the location as the south Tehran district of Nazi-abad. Anti-Khamenei slogans are considered a red line for authorities. Another unverified video shows riot police roaming on motorcycles in the same area, apparently to disrupt or intimidate protesters. In the southern port city of Bushehr, protesters are heard shouting "Death to the dictator", also a reference to Khamenei. "They're lying that it's America; our enemy is right here," they shout. That is a common slogan during anti-government protests in Iran. Videos of protests in other Iranian cities are also posted on social media. Iranian police have used tear gas and fired shots in the air to disperse crowds and have clashed with demonstrators during the week-long protests. In covering the disaster, official Iranian media have mainly shown religious mourning and funeral processions. Speaking on state television, Abadan's governor has warned people to solely follow official media and eschew "rumors" from social media. Iranians are already frustrated with high food prices and economic problems at a time when efforts have stalled to achieve a revival of a 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and, with it, relief from sanctions

Israel, Iran Threaten to Expand Revenge Operations
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
The hidden Iranian-Israeli war has moved to a higher degree of frankness, with senior officials on both sides speaking openly about the threat to escalate assassinations and bombings of all kinds. After Iran published a list of names for Israeli officials who are candidates for assassination, Israeli officials made hints about assassinations and bombings that took place in recent weeks on Iranian soil by Israeli military cells operating from inside Iranian territory. On Monday, security sources in Tel Aviv said that Israel takes Iranian threats with all seriousness. Israel has intensified its warnings to its citizens against traveling to Turkey and other countries surrounding Iran. The caveats come in anticipation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards attempting to target Israelis abroad to avenge the killing of its Quds Force Col. Sayyad Khudaei, whom Israel accuses of having led the unit responsible for planning assassinations against Israelis abroad. Khodaei was shot in front of his house in the heart of Tehran on May 22, and his assassination was attributed to Israeli authorities. For its part, Israel’s National Security Council Counter-Terrorism Bureau released an updated travel warning regarding Israeli visitors to Turkey. “For several weeks, especially since Iran has accused Israel of the death of a Revolutionary Guards officer last week, there is increasing concern in the security establishment regarding Iranian efforts to attack Israeli targets around the world,” the Bureau said in a statement. “Therefore, the National Security Council and the security establishment underscore the travel warning to Turkey and reiterate that it is a country that currently has a high level of risk for Israelis,” it explained. “According to the security establishment, the warning stems from a tangible threat to Israelis in Turkey. There is also a higher threat level in additional countries bordering Iran. Therefore, Israeli citizens should be alert and take care to show all due caution regarding travel to any of these countries,” the statement added. The Iranian Fars News Agency published a list on Sunday of Israeli businessmen who it claimed have to “live in hiding” due to their being followed by Iranian and pro-Iranian security and intelligence services. Fars described the listed Israelis as “experts in the field of military, security, defense, cyber and technology of the interim Zionist regime,” adding that they were “involved in sabotage against Islamic countries and the assassination of activists of the Islamic Resistance.”
The publication of the list comes as Iran blames Israel for the assassination of Khudaei and threatens revenge.

Iranian, Tajik Presidents Discuss Afghanistan
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi held talks in Tehran on Monday with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. Discussions focused on the situation in neighboring Afghanistan. Raisi said both countries want stability and security in Afghanistan and throughout the region and consider the presence of terrorists in this country very worrying. The two parties signed cooperation agreements in various fields less than two weeks after the inauguration of an Iranian factory for military drones in Tajikistan. Iran and Tajikistan agree on the issue of Afghanistan and that an inclusive government should be formed, said Raisi. He stressed that Iran and Tajikistan "believe that the outsiders and the evil hands of arrogance that strengthen ISIS and terrorist groups in the region do not even think about the security of the people of Afghanistan and the region, and they are only pursuing their own political goals and interests."
"Evidence of this was the 20-year presence of NATO and the United States in Afghanistan, which resulted in nothing but war, bloodshed, and destruction for the country," he added. Raisi had traveled to Dushanbe in September on his first foreign visit.Raisi said his visit helped increase trade relations between the two countries fourfold. During Rahmon's visit, senior Iranian and Tajik officials Iran signed 17 documents of cooperation in politics, economy, trade, transportation, investment, new technologies, environment, sports, energy, judiciary, education and research, and tourism in the presence of the two presidents. Raisi said the agreements are a "turning point in strengthening and deepening relations between the two countries." On May 17, Iran's Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri visited Dushanbe and inaugurated a drone factory, "Ababil 2," to produce UAVs capable of flying for about 90 minutes with a range of 150 km.
It was the first time Iran publicly announced the manufacture of weapons and drones outside its territory, which is seen as an attempt to establish a balance of power in the region, especially after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. In January, Pakistan's "The Frontier Post" revealed that the US is trying to persuade the governments of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to set up military bases in their territories for possible special operations in Afghanistan, including drones and units to assess intelligence data.

Kadhimi: Scourge of Drugs Destroying Iraq’s Social Fabric
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi slammed on Monday the scourge of drugs in Iraq. During a meeting with senior security leaders in Iraq on Monday, he said the phenomenon has for years raised deep popular and official concerns given its rapid spread in the country, especially in southern governorates. Addressing an expanded meeting of security chiefs, held at the headquarters of the Joint Operations Command in Baghdad, Kadhimi said: “The security services and armed forces have a shared responsibility to protect our country and society from drugs and uncontrolled weapons, which are major challenges that require more efforts.”He called on the Border Guard Command in the Ministry of Interior to strengthen measures in order to prevent drug smuggling, underlining the need to “eradicate this scourge that is destroying the social fabric.”Iraq’s southern border with Iran is a preferred route for drug trafficking to the rest of the provinces. The Iraqi authorities are still unable to deter drug smuggling gangs due to border chaos and the lack of adequately trained and equipped forces, according to some security sources. The Iraqi authorities have reiterated their intention to establish a “narcotics control agency” similar to the anti-terrorist agency that operates within the Iraqi security forces. Two weeks ago, Hakem al-Zamili, the first deputy speaker of Parliament, said that drugs “are no less dangerous than ISIS, and the community has begun to sense their threat.”On Sunday, the Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency announced the detention of six persons suspected of drug trafficking in the Najaf province. In a statement, the agency said that the confessions of a drug trafficker have led to the arrest of six other persons, “who are among the most prominent drug dealers in Najaf.”

Rockets Fired at Iraq Military Base with Foreign Troops
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Five rockets on Monday targeted an Iraqi military base hosting troops from an international anti-extremist coalition without causing deaths or damage, a military official said. A coalition source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said five rockets struck the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar province, according to initial reports. "Iraqi security forces responded. No casualties or damage reported for the time being," the source added. An Iraqi security source in Anbar had initially reported three rockets falling near the base, controlled by Iraq but hosting troops from a US-led coalition against ISIS group extremists, AFP reported. Rockets and armed drones frequently target the Ain al-Assad base. The last such incident on April 30 saw two rockets fall nearby without causing damage or deaths. A previously unknown group hostile to the United States' military presence in Iraq, "International Resistance", claimed responsibility for the attack on a pro-Iran Telegram channel. Rocket and drone attacks have targeted US troops and interests in Iraq in recent months. Many are not claimed, but Washington systematically blames pro-Iran factions for them. Iraq last year announced the end of the international coalition's combat mission after it helped the state defeat ISIS forces. Some 2,500 US soldiers and around 1,000 troops from other coalition members remain in three Iraqi military bases to continue a training and advisory role that began more than a year ago.

Calls Mount in Iraq to Dissolve Parliament
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
Calls have mounted in Iraq to dissolve the parliament as a way to end the political impasse in the country that has stretched on for seven months. Iraq held parliamentary elections in October 2021 with no party being able to reap a majority of bloc, which has consequently led to deadlock over the election of a president and formation of a government. Despite the impasse, the parliament has convened with the members of the "salvation coalition", which includes the Sadrist bloc of cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the Sunni "sovereignty alliance" and Kurdistan Democratic Party. The lawmakers met to discuss several draft laws and approve others, including last week's law that criminalizes the normalization of ties with Israel. The Shiite pro-Iran Coordination Framework lawmakers voted in favor of the law, even though it was submitted by Sadr, their main Shiite rival. The cleric had proposed the law as a move that would unite Shiites, who are in agreement over opposing Israel in spite of their sharp disputes in Iraq. Meanwhile, the figures calling for the dissolution of parliament believe that its ability to ratify laws does not excuse it from failing to elect a president and form a government. Many of these figures have submitted requests to the Federal Supreme Court to dissolve the legislature. Coordination Framework MP Siham al-Moussawi warned that dissolving parliament and holding new elections could expose Iraq to problems greater than the ones it is grappling with now. She told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework hopes to resolve disputes away from political pressure in order to reach an agreement with the Sadrists to form a new government.

Int’l Community Welcomes Ending State of Emergency in Sudan Paving for Dialogue
Khartoum - Mohammed Amin Yassin/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
The Troika and the Trilateral Mechanism welcomed the decisions of the Sudanese army to lift the state of emergency and release several political prisoners. The international organizations said it was an important step to create the appropriate environment for dialogue, noting that the decision requires a sincere policy to be fully implemented. The Troika, represented by Norway, the US, and the UK stressed the need to end the use of excessive force against the demonstrators and respect the rights of the protesters, calling on all Sudanese parties to engage in the political process facilitated by the UN, the AU, and IGAD.
The Trilateral Mechanism of the United Nations, the African Union, and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) welcomed the decision "as positive steps to create the conditions needed for a peaceful resolution for the current political impasse."
The Mechanism said in a statement that it encouraged all stakeholders to be prepared for a constructive dialogue in good faith on a political solution and a peaceful way out of the current crisis. It urged the authorities to release the remaining political detainees and ensure the right to peaceful assembly and expression, ending the excessive use of force against protesters.
IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu welcomed the decision of the Sudanese Sovereign Council to lift the state of emergency and release political detainees, calling on the army, political parties, civil society organizations, and the youth to engage in comprehensive talks. He urged all stakeholders to provide full support and actively participate in the initiative of the Trilateral Mechanism, which aims to facilitate a Sudanese-led political process to restore constitutional order and democracy. Gebeyehu described the decision of the Sudanese Sovereign Council to lift the state of emergency and release prisoners as "a positive step towards creating an environment conducive to resolving the crisis in Sudan."The People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, described the decision as "a positive step, but not enough."The movement called for the release of members of the resistance committees and all political detainees and the abolition of all laws restricting freedoms. The movement's Secretary General, Ammar Amoun, said that Burhan's decision confirms the "decline and failure of the October 25 plans." On Sunday, the head of Sudan's ruling sovereign council, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, lifted the state of emergency imposed in the country following the October coup he led. Burhan's decision came hours after the Security and Defense Council, Sudan's highest body that decides on security matters, recommended an end to the state of emergency and the release of all detainees. The recommendations facilitate dialogue between the military and the pro-democracy movement. Opposition political forces and resistance committees participating in the political process, sponsored by the Mechanism, said situations would only stabilize if the military measures that restrict freedom of expression and peaceful demonstration are ended. About 98 demonstrators have been killed and hundreds of others injured and arrested since the protests against the army's seizure of power began last October.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 30-31/2022
Jordan Has an Iran Problem. Can Israel and Saudi Arabia Unite to Combat It?
Jonathan Schanzer/The Dispatch/May 31/2022
The situation also presents an opportunity for the Biden administration.
In a conversation last week with former U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, Jordan’s King Abdullah II expressed concerns that Iranian forces in Syria could soon destabilize his country. Russia may soon redeploy assets and forces from Syria to their mired war effort in Ukraine, and Iran seeks to fill the void.
The Jordanian monarch asserted, “That vacuum [left by the Russians] will be filled by the Iranians and their proxies. So unfortunately, we are looking at maybe an escalation of problems on our borders.”
But challenges can also yield opportunity. In this case, Jordan’s security woes can help to cement an emerging alliance between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These two unlikely partners both view Iran as a mortal enemy that threatens the broader Middle East. They both share borders with Jordan. And they both view Jordanian stability as critical to their national security.
Saudi Arabia is already mulling a move in this direction, particularly after the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020. When its neighbors United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia seemed next in line. However, the leadership in Riyadh moves more slowly and deliberately than its Gulf partners.
A Saudi-Israeli agreement was widely expected in Donald Trump’s second term. But that second term was not to be.
When the Biden administration came in, the winds shifted significantly. For months, the White House refused to acknowledge the Trump administration’s normalization achievements (the State Department spokesman wouldn’t utter the words “Abraham Accords”). New pacts were clearly not a priority.
That may be changing now, with reports that the Biden administration is helping to broker the transfer of two Egyptian islands in the Red Sea (Tiran and Sanafir) to Saudi Arabia. The deal requires Israeli buy-in, pursuant to the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement of 1979. The transaction could amount to a first step toward normalization.
For Saudi Arabia, this is all welcome change. On the campaign trail, Joe Biden not only ignored the possibility of brokering a normalization agreement—he openly vowed to blackball the Saudis in Washington. Once sworn in, Biden followed up to the delight of a handful of anti-Saudi lawmakers, releasing known information about the Saudi killing of journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi. After that, the White House pulled support for the Saudi war in Yemen, and it removed the Houthi terrorist group from the State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organization list, even as the Houthis were firing rockets at Saudi civilian and oil infrastructure.
Things appeared to hit rock bottom before the war in Ukraine. The resulting energy crisis, however, prompted the Biden administration to rekindle ties with the government sitting atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves. According to Saudi officials, the relationship is getting back on track.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to demonstrate its value to Saudi Arabia as an ally. In recent years, the Israelis have been slugging it out with the Iranians in Syria, in cyberspace, on the high seas, and beyond. It’s an asymmetric campaign that the Israelis call “the war between wars.” It has proved two things to the Arab states. First, Israel is not afraid to battle Riyadh’s mortal enemy. Second, the Islamic Republic is not as strong as many believed.
All eyes are now on Syria, where Israel has been stepping up strikes on Iranian assets. The tempo is expected to increase if and when Russia redeploys forces and assets to Ukraine. Freedom of operation could yield new opportunities, even as Iran seeks to expand operations in the war-torn territory.
Part of Iran’s expansion effort, as the Jordanian monarch noted, includes the destabilization of Jordan from the north, where drug smugglers are already wreaking havoc. Jordan also faces a threat from the south, with Iranian assets reportedly operating in the Red Sea. This all amounts to a direct threat to both Saudi Arabia and Israel. Both view the Hashemite Kingdom as a valuable asset. Stability on their respective borders is something both countries will protect at great cost.
Building on the momentum of the Red Sea islands negotiations, the White House has an opportunity to push the two sides in the right direction. After Abdullah’s recent visit to Washington, the Biden administration has renewed its commitment to Jordanian security. Enlisting the help of Riyadh and Jerusalem, separately and together, is the next logical step.
Admittedly, both Saudi Arabia and Israel remain wary of Biden’s declared intent to re-enter the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran. Talks have stalled in Vienna over the regime’s demands to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the U.S. terrorism list. Biden has refused, which comes as a relief to the Israelis and Saudis. But the White House has not given up yet on a deal. Should an accord be reached, the Israelis and Saudis both worry that the accompanying sanctions relief would yield hundreds of billions of dollars to the regime in Tehran. That windfall would only help Iran destabilize Jordan, not to mention other countries around the region.
This is a message that Riyadh and Jerusalem can now convey to Washington. They can also offer the Biden administration an alternative. They can offer the White House an opportunity to broker a new defense pact, leveraging their participation in CENTCOM. Israel was recently added to this strategic region, and this has already afforded the Saudis and Israelis opportunities to work together.
Saudi Arabia and Israel can take things a step further, too. Building upon the Red Sea talks, they can now enter into the most important normalization agreement yet. Such an agreement would be viewed as an unparalleled diplomatic achievement in the region, given Saudi Arabia’s prominent role in the Arab world.
For a White House that still seeks to differentiate itself from the previous administration, this is the moment they have been waiting for. And given Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab and Muslim worlds, it’s not difficult to imagine a domino effect, with other countries looking to follow suit.
Does the road to regional peace run through Jordan? It’s time for President Biden to find out.
*Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism finance analyst at the United States Department of the Treasury, is senior vice president for the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C. Follow him on Twitter @JSchanzer.

Nuclear Iran NOT an "Acceptable Risk"
Peter Vincent Pry/Gatestone Institute./May 31/2022
One might well wonder if the CNAS study is a "trial balloon" from the Biden Administration to begin preparing the nation and world psychologically for the advent of Iran's "Islamic bomb."
One might also wonder if the CNAS study is an attempt to justify consequent U.S. retreat from the Middle East, not as another humiliating defeat, but as a prudent and wise reprioritization of resources to meet the threat from China.
President Biden is defunding nuclear weapons critical to U.S. national security, such as the SLCM-N and B-83. He is also still seriously considering abolition of U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and is doing nothing to accelerate desperately needed modernization of the U.S. nuclear deterrent -- despite increasing nuclear threats from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
If America, the most benign and humane civilization that has ever existed in history, is capable of using nuclear weapons, what can be expected from the evil empires that are Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran?
At minimum, a nuclear Iran will be even more aggressive supporting terrorism against moderate Arab states, Israel, and the U.S.. Iran might well also arm its proxies -- many of which are officially designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations -- with weapons of mass destruction, while relying on anonymity and its nuclear deterrent to escape retaliation.
Unlike North Korea, whose overt pursuit of nuclear weapons is used for atomic diplomacy and blackmail, Iran's nuclear weapons program is clandestine and may remain covertly secret -- because Iran plans actually to use its "Islamic bomb."
Expect the Center for a New American Security to weave more fig leaves rationalizing Biden Administration blunders and irresponsible policy as a species of wisdom. Coming soon, U.S. nuclear inferiority to Russia and China will be called an "acceptable risk."
Unlike North Korea, whose overt pursuit of nuclear weapons is used for atomic diplomacy and blackmail, Iran's nuclear weapons program is clandestine and may remain covertly secret -- because Iran plans actually to use its "Islamic bomb." (Image source: iStock)
The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), comprising largely former, mostly Democrat administration foreign policy and defense officials, in a new study — "Risk and Responsibility: Managing Future Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction Threats" — tries to sell the notion that Iran armed with nuclear, biological and chemical offensive weapons will be an acceptable risk. CNAS is a source of staff and "expertise" to the Biden Administration. Unfortunately, their idea is preposterous.
Based on three tabletop exercises, the CNAS report concludes that "even if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, the likelihood the regime will use it is low."
Therefore, according to CNAS, the Biden Administration is justified in its plans to "accept risks in the Middle East and against future Iran threats" in order to "better address the long-term 'pacing challenge' posed by China."
The CNAS report states:
"Washington is reimagining its global role, leading the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to make difficult choices about priorities, resources, and risk to better address the long-term 'pacing challenge' posed by China. To do so, the United States plans to accept risks in the Middle East and against future Iran threats. Iran's possession and potential use of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)—specifically, its nuclear program, chemical weapons, and biological agents—pose the greatest threat to U.S. interests."
Three table top exercises, according to CNAS, indicate that "the United States can better accept risk in the Middle East and revise its global priorities while still protecting core U.S. interests."
One might wonder if the CNAS study is a "trial balloon" from the Biden Administration to begin preparing the nation and world psychologically for the advent of Iran's "Islamic bomb." One might also wonder if the CNAS study is an attempt to justify consequent U.S. retreat from the Middle East, not as another humiliating defeat, but as a prudent and wise reprioritization of resources to meet the threat from China.
Since the Biden Administration's intelligence community estimates that Iran is only 8 weeks away from having atomic weapons, Iran is already a "threshold" or nuclear weapons state. Other senior national security officials have warned repeatedly that Iran probably already has nuclear-armed missiles.
On the other hand, CNAS and the Biden Administration may really believe that nuclear-armed Iran is an acceptable risk. Biden's administration is the most anti-nuclear in history, staffed and advised by anti-nuclear activists who mistakenly believe nuclear weapons have little or no military utility, are "unusable" and that nuclear employment is "unthinkable." Jill Hruby, for instance, Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, responsible for maintaining and modernizing U.S. nuclear weapons, was drafted from the Nuclear Threat Initiative group. Biden's nuclear "kitchen cabinet" includes the Carnegie Foundation's Nuclear Policy Program, led by James Acton, that persuaded Biden to fund a study by Carnegie arguing against modernization of American ICBMs. In the Congress, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith and Senator Elizabeth Warren are outspokenly against U.S. ICBMs and nuclear modernization generally, want the U.S. to adopt a "no first use" policy and reduce U.S. nuclear weapons to a minimum deterrent of a few hundred warheads.
Consequently, Biden is defunding nuclear weapons that are critical to U.S. national security, such as the SLCM-N and B-83. He is also still seriously considering abolition of U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and is doing nothing to accelerate desperately needed modernization of the U.S. nuclear deterrent—despite increasing nuclear threats from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
To the Biden Administration, its deepening involvement in Ukraine runs unprecedented and escalating risks of nuclear war with Russia. For those, therefore, who genuinely believe in the mantra: "A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought," the nuclearization of Iran should be thought of as a relatively small and "acceptable risk" to the U.S. and its allies.
Yet World War II was a nuclear war, fought and won by the United States -- and not the only time the U.S. has seriously contemplated the employment of nuclear weapons. During the Korean War, for example, General Douglas MacArthur wanted to use nuclear weapons against North Korea and China. President Dwight D. Eisenhower achieved an armistice in that war by threatening the use of tactical nuclear weapons. President John F. Kennedy and his administration contemplated the use of nuclear weapons during the Berlin Crisis and the Cuban Missile Crisis. During the Gulf Wars, the use of tactical nuclear weapons was threatened if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein used chemical or biological weapons. There are many such examples, such as Japan in World War II -- so long as the U.S. "nuclear umbrella" is highly credible.
If America, the most benign and humane civilization that has ever existed in history, is capable of using nuclear weapons, what can be expected from the evil empires that are Russia, China, North Korea and Iran?
At minimum, a nuclear Iran will be even more aggressive supporting terrorism against moderate Arab states, Israel, and the U.S.. Iran might well also arm its proxies -- many of which are officially designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations -- with weapons of mass destruction, while relying on anonymity and its nuclear deterrent to escape retaliation. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is, in fact, the world's largest, deadliest terrorist organization, and is in charge of Iran's so-called "space program" that has orbited two satellites.
Nuclear proliferation, and risks of nuclear war by accident or design, will greatly increase as a consequence of Iran going overtly nuclear. Syria, Egypt and Turkey might go nuclear. According to one recent headline, "Saudis would develop bomb 'the next day' if Iran nuclear deal led to weapons capability: experts."
Unlike North Korea, whose overt pursuit of nuclear weapons is used for atomic diplomacy and blackmail, Iran's nuclear weapons program is clandestine and may remain covertly secret -- because Iran plans actually to use its "Islamic bomb."
Western analysts typically underestimate or ignore Iran's ideological motives for nuclearization, deeply rooted in radical Shia Islam's belief that the secular and spiritual worlds are in their "end time" and that Iran has a highest duty, as a nation is expendable, in service of holy war to destroy the "infidel" peoples, especially the U.S. "Great Satan" and "Little Satan" Israel.
The Congressional EMP Commission warns that Iran, armed with only one or a few nuclear weapons, could carry out an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack against the U.S. and/or Middle East allies, blacking-out national electric grids and other life-sustaining critical infrastructures, thereby posing an existential or "assured destruction" threat.
The July 2017 EMP Commission report, "Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-Arms Cyber Warfare (see also the 2022 EMP Task Force report "Iran: EMP Threat") describes several scenarios where Iran, for geostrategic and ideological reasons, carries out EMP attacks on the U.S., Israel, Europe, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
The report warns, to quote one example:
"[An] EMP attack that paralyzes the government, communications, transportation, and cuts the supply of food and water might well trigger a protracted revolution or civil war, effectively destroying the state of Egypt and creating a zone of permanent chaos..."
A nuclear Iran is an existential threat to the U.S. and its allies and should not be an "acceptable risk" to the Biden Administration.
Expect the Center for a New American Security to weave more fig leaves rationalizing Biden Administration blunders and irresponsible policy as a species of wisdom. Coming soon, U.S. nuclear inferiority to Russia and China will be called an "acceptable risk."
*Dr. Peter Vincent Pry is Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, was Chief of Staff of the Congressional EMP Commission, Director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, served on the staffs of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, House Armed Services Committee, and the CIA. He is author of the books Blackout Warfare, The Power And The Light, and Will America Be Protected?
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How to Break Russia’s Blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea Ports
James Stavridis/Bloomberg/Tuesday, 31 May, 2022
When I was operations officer on an Aegis guided-missile destroyer in the late 1980s, we were given a mission in the Arabian Gulf. The Iranians, amid the so-called Tanker War with Iraq, were trying to close off the vital Strait of Hormuz.
The rest of the world needed to keep oil flowing, and chose a fairly dramatic solution: escorting convoys of oil tankers, which were flagged by the US, in and out of the tight waterway. Called Operation Earnest Will, it was mostly successful, running from the hot summer of 1987 to the fall of 1988. (Admittedly, there was a great tragedy during this time, the downing of an Iranian jetliner with 290 people killed.). Earnest Will kept the oil flowing and took away leverage from the Iranians. My cruiser, the Valley Forge, had a successful deployment, and the mission had an important impact on global geopolitics and energy supplies.As the world faces food shortages due to the illegal blockade of Ukraine by Russia, the US and its allies should consider a similar response.
Ukraine supplies a significant portion of the world’s wheat (roughly 7% of global exports), sunflower oil and other critical agricultural products. Russia’s actions are not only illegal under international law but may well cause famine in the Middle East and North Africa ­— already unstable hotspots. Russian President Vladimir Putin has maritime control of the northern Black Sea because his fleet, with more than two dozen significant combatant ships, is by far the most powerful in the region. With 25,000 mariners and around 40 surface warships and seven submarines, the fleet is formidable even after the loss of its massive Slava-class flagship, the Moskva, to a Ukrainian cruise missile strike in April.
While North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have capable forces in the Black Sea, Ukraine has virtually no navy left to challenge the Russian blockade. Russian forces are arrayed along its coast and are in position to choke off the economy, with the side-effect of preventing agricultural products from reaching their intended markets.
Moscow is using a strategy reminiscent of the one employed by the Union military against the agrarian South in the US Civil War. Called the Anaconda Plan, after the snake that chokes its victims to death, the seagoing portion deprived the Confederacy of hard currency by preventing the export of cotton. Several European countries challenged the maritime blockade, to little avail. Putin is taking a page out of Lincoln’s playbook, and it is having an effect. The Russians have now proposed negotiations to allow the shipment of grain in return for a lifting of Western sanctions, which the US and its allies will not accept.
Which brings us to the idea of breaking the blockade by escorting merchant ships. The first challenge is the most obvious: Who will do the escorting? This could be done under the auspices of the United Nations, by NATO or by a coalition of nations willing to undertake what will be a provocative and dangerous mission. The most likely approach would be the latter, led by the US and probably including the UK and France, and perhaps Black Sea nations Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria.
A second challenge will be clearing mines, because both the Ukrainians and Russians have used them to try and control the seas along the Ukrainian coast. NATO has a standing force of minesweepers for exactly this purpose. This flotilla is operating under the command of one of my successors as supreme allied commander, General Tod Wolters.
Third, the nations carrying out any blockade would need to work with the major shipping countries and the international merchants who carry and own the grain and other products. This could be organized by the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London. Part of the UN, the IMO played a similar role in organizing international responses to piracy off the coast of Africa when I was NATO commander.
This will probably also require some of the merchant ships to be re-flagged to the nationality of the countries participating in the operation, as the US did in the Gulf.
Lastly, there is the task of informing Russia of the plan and ensuring that it understands that the coalition conducting the operation will tolerate no interference — but also has no wish to enter combat with the Russian Black Sea fleet. Moscow will likely bluster, but the idea of it attacking NATO warships in international waters is low. If, against the odds, the Russians did something stupid, it would be met with a proportional use of force.
We have reached a pivotal point: Grain shipments are cut off, the Ukrainian economy is devastated, and the coming food crisis must be avoided. The democratic allies should explore an Operation Earnest Will-style approach. Simply allowing Putin to have his way on the high seas cannot continue.

Iran’s seizure of Greek tankers threatens regional maritime security
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/May 31/2022
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps revealed on Friday that it had seized two oil tankers belonging to Greece, which has accused Tehran of piracy for its taking of Delta Poseidon and Prudent Warrior.
In already-jittery energy markets, the attacks have had a destabilizing effect, at least temporarily, leading to a significant spike in oil prices around the world.
The twin attacks, together with other recent threats to freedom of navigation, have highlighted the need to counter Iran’s disruptive conduct and safeguard trade routes and waterways.
The Gulf Cooperation Council and the US are working together to enhance regional maritime security against such threats. In March, the joint GCC-US maritime security working group met in Riyadh to coordinate the two sides’ response to all types of maritime threat. They are also planning additional policy coordination meetings in the near future, while practical cooperation is ongoing under bilateral and other multilateral frameworks, such as the Combined Maritime Forces, which was set up in 2002.
The CMF is a multinational maritime partnership whose express purpose is to “uphold the international rules-based order by countering illicit nonstate actors on the high seas and promoting security, stability and prosperity across approximately 3.2 million square miles of international waters, which encompass some of the world’s most important shipping lanes.”
Its main focus is promoting security, stability and a safe maritime environment. Its mandate also includes combating narcotics, smuggling and piracy, as well as engaging and cooperating with regional and other partners to strengthen and improve its capabilities to achieve those goals. When requested, the CMF will also respond to environmental and humanitarian incidents.
The CMF has 34 member nations: Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Jordan, the Republic of Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, the Philippines, Portugal, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Seychelles, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, Turkey, the UAE, the UK, the US, and Yemen. It is commanded by US Navy Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, who also serves as commander of US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. All three commands are co-located at US Naval Support Activity Bahrain. The deputy commander is the British Royal Navy’s Commodore Adrian Fryer. Other senior staff roles at CMF headquarters are filled by personnel from member nations.
It has had three combined task forces under its command for some time: CTF 152 deals with maritime security inside the Arabian Gulf; CTF150 deals with maritime security outside the Arabian Gulf; and CTF 151 deals with countering piracy. The CMF last month announced the establishment of a new multinational task force, known as CTF-153, to patrol the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
At any given time, CTF-153 will have two to eight vessels patrolling the waterway between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait to the waters off the Yemen-Oman border, according to Cooper. He said that the creation of the new task force “reflects a regional consensus on the importance of maritime security.” CTF-153 will first be led by the Fifth Fleet’s Capt. Robert Francis before command rotates to other CMF member countries.
The augmentation of CMF task forces is motivated by a recognition that Iran has been escalating its destabilizing activities over recent months, including missile and drone attacks on land and in the sea, as well as the harassment of oil tankers.
Last July, just a few days before Ebrahim Raisi was sworn in as Iran’s president, there was a brazen drone attack on the Mercer Street tanker off the coast of Oman; it was an early indicator of the new leadership’s direction. At the time, the foreign ministers of the G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US), plus the EU, described that attack as “deliberate and targeted” and without justification.
Then-Chief of the British Defense Staff Gen. Nick Carter said that Western powers needed to retaliate for such tanker attacks, “otherwise, Tehran will feel emboldened.” Carter told the BBC that, if a regime of deterrence is not restored in the Gulf, there will be more attacks and a higher risk of “miscalculation” by Iran. “What we need to be doing, fundamentally, is calling out Iran for its very reckless behavior,” he said.
There has been no direct retaliation for the attack on Mercer Street, but significant efforts have been made to restore deterrence through upgrading the capabilities of existing security frameworks, including the CMF.
After the addition of the new CTF-153, the CMF’s framework and mandate is sufficient to deal with many threats to maritime security in the region, especially when working closely with national capabilities. However, with the escalation in the number and sophistication of recent attacks, more needs to be done to restore deterrence. The Red Sea in particular is vast and largely unpatrolled, creating an inviting space for mischief-makers.
With the escalation in the number and sophistication of recent attacks, more needs to be done to restore deterrence.
A potential source of maritime threats is Yemen. Although there has been a fragile truce in place for the past two months, the Houthis have previously sent many explosives-laden remote-controlled boats into the Red Sea to attack Saudi and other targets. Iran has been the main party responsible for providing the Houthis with drones and missiles.
Last week’s attacks on the Greek oil tankers and the IRGC’s threat to seize more ships should be taken seriously to deter future attacks.
In addition to the close cooperation between CMF partners and the GCC-US coordination bodies, political and diplomatic work needs to be enhanced to put Iran on notice that it should not use the cover of nuclear negotiations to continue to undermine regional maritime security, either directly or through its proxies and allies.
Iran is all for “cooperation among regional states for peace and security,” according to Raisi, but the first step in such cooperation should be for it to stop its disruptive behavior, including its frequent attacks on shipping.
*Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1

become a generation facing ongoing tyranny
Abraham Cooper and Johnnie Moore/Al Arabiya/May 31/2022
Simon Wiesenthal lost eighty-nine family members in the Holocaust. On the verge of starvation, he almost became number ninety but was saved by US soldiers at Mauthausen Concentration Camp in May 1945 in the last days of WWII.
Wiesenthal, who went on to become the famed Nazi-hunter, bringing 1,100 war criminals to justice, was often asked: “Were you surprised by how many Nazis there were?”
“No,” Mr. Wiesenthal said, “but I was shocked by how few anti-Nazis there were.”
Imagine how the long-suffering people in Iran feel when they see that whenever they dare raise their voices in protest, or heroically take to the streets, and whenever they publicly chant solidarity (instead of hate) for the ‘great Satan’—America, that any echoes of support are drowned out by deafening silence?
Since 1979, the Iranian regime has left a trail of murder and mayhem against its own people, and has unleashed terrorism by proxy across the Gulf and the globe.
Why then, in 2022, does there seem to be so few anti-Iranian regime voices in the West?
Let’s take a test.
How many people are even aware of the courage of Iranian exiles who have started showing up at the front door of Iranian “diplomatic” missions around the world asking agents of the regime to defect? Some of those who have appeared at heavily armored gates were little-known protestors. Others have achieved some notoriety in their opposition to the Mullahcracy, like Masih Alinejad. Alinejad was the target of a sophisticated IRGC kidnapping plot in the United States earlier this year. Yet, that didn’t stop her from risking her own life, when she knocked on the door of an Iranian Mission in Norway recently, to demand justice for the oppressed women in her native land.
Alinejad stared down the embassy employee who eventually opened the door and pleaded, “take my hands instead of the blood-stained hands of the regime.”
The flustered embassy employee responded by calling the Iranian security service.
Alinejad, the anti-hijab activist, later tweeted that the regime’s cowardly agent in Norway even feared “a woman’s hair.”How many of us are aware that Ayatollah Khamenei and his goons must have sleepless nights as new nationwide protests erupt?
Masih Alinejad, 37, a Britain-based Iranian journalist, poses for a portrait in London October 8, 2013. Alinejad, a former reporter in Iran, left the country a week before the 2009 elections to study abroad and stayed outside after the unrest and crackdown on reformist press. During the protests, she interviewed families of protesters killed by security forces, and her work in the last four years has focused on interviewing families of political prisoners. She says she will not return, even though she misses her family a great deal, because she would not be able to continue her work. Iranians who want to go back home have a tough decision to make: return and face limits on their work and movement and possible outstanding criminal charges, or remain in isolation far from their homes and families. (File photo: Reuters) Masih Alinejad, 37, a Britain-based Iranian journalist, poses for a portrait in London October 8, 2013. Alinejad, a former reporter in Iran, left the country a week before the 2009 elections to study abroad and stayed outside after the unrest and crackdown on reformist press. During the protests, she interviewed families of protesters killed by security forces, and her work in the last four years has focused on interviewing families of political prisoners. She says she will not return, even though she misses her family a great deal, because she would not be able to continue her work. Iranians who want to go back home have a tough decision to make: return and face limits on their work and movement and possible outstanding criminal charges, or remain in isolation far from their homes and families. (File photo: Reuters)
This time there doesn’t appear to be a focused protest. They range from disenfranchised minorities including moderate Shia Azerbaijanis to the suffering Ahwaz Arabs to various opposition groups. It includes one group visited by US former secretary of state Mike Pompeo last week in Albania (the MEK) and, of course, allies of the son of the Shah—all driven by a desperate rage against their tormentors.
This is the regime’s worst nightmare. It has pursued terrorism successfully, followed sly diplomatic maneuvers, and injected plain hubris all in order to inch its way to going nuclear.
But now, as the sanctions against Tehran dramatically loosen-it’s not Washington, Brussels, Jerusalem, Riyadh, and the other Gulf states the Ayatollah fears the most; it’s his own people.
The people of Iran have protested before.
The Green Revolution of 2009 and a series of protests in 2018 and 2019 come to mind. The Green Revolution’s cries from the streets of Tehran to then President Obama were met with stone cold silence. Those earlier protests were silenced through brute force, mass jailings, and worse. The images and voices of the protesters were blocked from the world when the regime shut down the internet which is a skill they’ve honed in the last two years.
The people in Iran are now revolting again, reaching from Iran’s oil-rich southwest provinces to the north and center of the country.
The protests are for different reasons, but the response has been the same: Tehran’s fake religious leaders are keen to crush them, yet the people keep protesting; the people in Iran are pleading with us to hear them, and to help them. So far they haven’t attracted a benefactor like Elon Musk - who single-handedly ensured that the real-time brutalities and heroism of the Ukrainians at the hands of the Russian military could not be blocked by Moscow.
Will Elon Musk save lives in Iran too?
But why should it have to come down to the largess of one person? Where are the guardians of social media? Instead, we have witnessed the systematic removal of footage and images of heroic Iranian protesters disappearing from social media.
There were reports this week that the regime’s agents had attempted to bribe Persian-language content moderators on Instagram to delete anti-regime content and figures, including Masih Alinejad. They were willing to pay up to $10,000 to delete an account.
One way or another, videos of protestors did vanish from multiple social media platforms.
That’s right: powerful self-anointed guardians against fake news have not only blocked real news but are deleting the images of heroic protestors in Iran and erasing their hopes for change.
Who is served by such duplicity?
The terrorism-sponsoring, genocide-seeking, human rights-crushing, Holocaust-denying thugs in Tehran. And the oil-thirsty leaders, who’ve been fed fatuous political narratives concocted by US special envoys desperate for any deal with Tehran.
Whether technically providing material support for terrorists, or not, social media companies are certainly guilty of aiding and abetting Tehran by leaving up the accounts of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard while allowing the videos of victims to be removed.
Governments, social influencers, and faith leaders have also failed the Iranian people. Tragically it seems that American and European leaders seem to still believe that appeasing the regime will bring about kinder, gentler Supreme Leader.
Only strong, unified, leadership from the US and the EU can influence the regime to stop massacring its own people. Appeasement is an accelerant for tyrants who plot to use weapons of mass destruction and terrorism against Israel, Iran’s Arab neighbors, and the United States.
With the help of the United States, a united Europe and social media, decent people everywhere continue to show their solidarity with the people of the Ukraine.
Don’t we owe the long-suffering people of Iran that same solidarity?