English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News
& Editorials
For March 30/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
It
is impossible to restore again to repentance those who have once been
enlightened, and have tasted the heavenly gift, and have shared in the Holy
Spirit,and have tasted the goodness
Letter to the Hebrews 06/01-09:”Let
us go on towards perfection, leaving behind the basic teaching about Christ, and
not laying again the foundation: repentance from dead works and faith towards
God, instruction about baptisms, laying on of hands, resurrection of the dead,
and eternal judgement. And we will do this, if God permits. For it is impossible
to restore again to repentance those who have once been enlightened, and have
tasted the heavenly gift, and have shared in the Holy Spirit,and have tasted the
goodness of the word of God and the powers of the age to come, and then have
fallen away, since on their own they are crucifying again the Son of God and are
holding him up to contempt. Ground that drinks up the rain falling on it
repeatedly, and that produces a crop useful to those for whom it is cultivated,
receives a blessing from God. But if it produces thorns and thistles, it is
worthless and on the verge of being cursed; its end is to be burned over. Even
though we speak in this way, beloved, we are confident of better things in your
case, things that belong to salvation.”;
on March
29-30/2026
Israel, Lebanon's Rulers, the Army, Security Forces, and UNIFIL Bear
Responsibility for the Martyrdom of George and Elias Said, Sons of Debel/Elias
Bejjani/March 29/2026
Palm Sunday …The Triumphal Entry of Jesus into Jerusalem/Elias BejjaniMarch
29/2026
Video-Link for an interview from JNS with The Lebanese-Israeli Activist Jonathan
Elkhoury telling the story of betrayal and survival, revealing what most
Lebanese actually think today
Netanyahu Says Israel Will Widen Its Invasion of Southern Lebanon
Israeli strikes kill 17 in southern Lebanon
Israeli war kills more than 1,200 in Lebanon
French foreign minister condemns targeting of journalists in Lebanon
UNIFIL) peacekeeper was killed in South Lebanon
Funerals held for three journalists killed in Israeli strike
Israel and Hezbollah Shift to Multi-Dimensional Warfare
Report: Iran’s Ambassador Won’t Leave Lebanon Despite Expulsion
Victory and Defeat Scenarios for Iran’s Proxies in Lebanon and Iraq
American University of Beirut Moves to Online Learning After Iran Threats
Israel military says another soldier killed in south Lebanon
Iran foreign minister condemns Israeli killing of three journalists in Lebanon
Beirut Rescuers Risk Their Lives to Save Animals
Israel–Lebanon border security calls for cooperation, not control/Yossi
Mekelberg/March 29/2026
Hezbollah’s Plan After the Fall of Iran/Colonel Charbel
Barakat/March 30/2026
The War on Hezbollah-The Iranian Terrorist Proxy Continues/LCCC website
links to several important news websites
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on March
29-30/2026
Mediators gather in Pakistan for talks on ending the monthlong Iran war
JD or Marco?’: Iran War Raises 2028 Stakes as Trump Weighs Vance vs. Rubio
Pentagon preparing for ground operations in Iran: Report
US plots ground attack despite diplomatic efforts, Iran parliament speaker says
US, Israeli strikes hit Iran port city near Strait of Hormuz: State media
Iran Guards Threaten to Hit US Universities in Middle East
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt discuss ways to bring permanent end to
Iran war
Iran’s heavy water production plant no longer operational, IAEA says
Saudi Arabia condemns attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan leaders’ residences
Any Iran deal must include guarantees against future attacks: UAE diplomat
University in Iran’s Isfahan was hit by US-Israeli strike
France condemns Israeli police blocking Jerusalem’s Latin Patriarch
EU shows support for Gulf nations facing Iran attacks
Three dead in Russian attack on Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine, police say
Russian tanker nears Cuba, defying US oil blockade
Arab Foreign Ministers Name Nabil Fahmy as Arab League Chief
Israeli Police Prevent Catholic Leaders from Celebrating Palm Sunday Mass at
Jerusalem Church
Israeli Police Prevent Catholic Leaders from Celebrating Palm Sunday Mass at
Jerusalem Church
US Condemns Attack on Home of the Leader of Autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan
France Condemns Houthis for Entering Middle East War
Iran 30 Days into Internet Blackout, Isolating Millions Amid War
Questions Over Israel’s Interceptor Stockpiles as Middle East War Drags on
News of the ongoing war between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the
other.
links to several television channels and newspapers
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March
29-30/2026
The War on Civilization: 'Israel Cannot Outsource Its Survival'...A Conversation
with Pierre Rehov/Grégoire Canlorbe/ Gatestone Institute/March 29, 2026
On War and the Notions It Demands/Fahid Suleiman al-Shoqiran/Asharq Al-Awsat/March
29/2026
Iraq and the Loyalist Militias/Mishary Dhayidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The gift that will not keep on giving/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya English/29
March/2026
Children pay the highest price in Middle East conflict/Inger Ashing/Arab
News/March 29, 2026
Iran turning nuclear ambiguity into a wartime weapon/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab
News/March 29, 2026
Religious affairs presidency expands digital outreach/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
NewsMarch 29/2026
on March
29-30/2026
Israel, Lebanon's Rulers, the Army, Security Forces, and UNIFIL Bear
Responsibility for the Martyrdom of George and Elias Said, Sons of Debl
Elias Bejjani/March 29/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/153204/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DRar8yT9dU
With profound anger and sorrow, the Lebanese people and the conscience of the
free world mourn the two wronged martyrs, George Said and his son Elias, who
were killed by Israeli fire on the road linking their village, Debl, and the
town of Rmeish. This heinous crime is not merely a "military error," but a
direct targeting of peaceful, unarmed citizens who never bore arms nor belonged
to schemes of strife or to the terrorist "Hezbollah" axis that has brought ruin
and destruction upon Lebanon and the South.
The two martyrs were on a mission of survival, seeking sustenance and medicine
for their people in the besieged village of Debl, only to fall drenched in blood
on a "humanitarian corridor." Due to Hezbollah’s criminality and its futile
Iranian jihadist wars—and because of the Lebanese state's negligence (army and
security forces) and the indifference of the international UNIFIL forces—this
path has turned into a death trap lurking for the innocent.
What the village of Debl faced yesterday with the martyrdom of two of its sons,
preceded days ago by the fall of three martyrs in the town of Ain Ebel and the
targeting of the shepherd of Rmeish, is the dear blood tax paid by Christians in
Southern Lebanon as the price for clinging to their roots and history. They are
the children of this holy land trodden by the feet of Lord Christ and His Virgin
Mother, raised in faith on soil kneaded with the blood, sweat, and conviction of
their ancestors. They remain steadfast against all projects of uprooting and
displacement—whether Palestinian, leftist, pan-Arabist, Baathist, or Iranian.
Today, Southern Christians stand with pride and resilience, bare-chested before
the terrorism of the Iranian-backed jihadist Hezbollah. The group has turned
their towns and villages into missile platforms and open battlefields for the
account of the Tehran regime, completely disregarding the safety and security of
residents who refuse displacement and cling to the land they redeem today with
their lives.
Full and absolute responsibility for the dire situation in Southern Christian
villages and towns rests upon:
The Falsely Named "Lebanese State": Hijacked in its decision-making, rulers,
officials, and sovereignty by Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Army and Security Forces: Which abandoned their constitutional duty
to protect citizens, leaving Southern Christian border villages to face their
fate alone, caught between the hammer of occupation and the anvil of terrorism.
The International UNIFIL Forces: Who are called upon today to exercise their
actual role in protecting civilians and securing humanitarian corridors. There
is no use for "peacekeeping forces" content with the role of a spectator,
issuing reports while the innocent are slaughtered.
However, the greatest responsibility is borne by the terrorist Hezbollah, which
occupies South Lebanon and takes its residents hostage for regional adventures,
unconcerned by the destruction of villages or the displacement of their people.
The cry of Debl's parish priest, Father Fadi Falflé, along with the cries of
Christian residents and municipal and electoral figures, is the cry of a people
who reject humiliation. These are a people who refuse to leave their land and
will not be intimidated by the machine of death. The Christian presence in the
South will remain a solid rock upon which all projects foreign to Lebanon's
identity and history shatter.
Mercy to the martyrs George and Elias Said, and to the martyrs of Ain Ebel and
Rmeish. Shame to everyone who conspired or remained silent in the face of these
crimes.
Palm Sunday …The
Triumphal Entry of Jesus into Jerusalem.
Elias BejjaniMarch 29/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/04/107794/
(Psalm118/26): “Hosanna! Blessed is He who comes in the name of Yahweh! We have
blessed You out of the house of Yahweh”.
On the seventh Lantern Sunday, known as the “Palm Sunday”, our Maronite Catholic
Church celebrates the Triumphal Entry of Jesus into Jerusalem. The joyful and
faithful people of this Holy City and their children welcomed Jesus with
innocent spontaneity and declared Him a King. Through His glorious and modest
entry the essence of His Godly royalty that we share with Him in baptism and
anointing of Chrism was revealed. Jesus’ Triumphant Entry into Jerusalem, the
“Palm Sunday”, marks the Seventh Lantern Sunday, the last one before Easter Day,
(The Resurrection).
During the past six Lantern weeks, we the believers are ought to have renewed
and rekindled our faith and reverence through genuine fasting, contemplation,
penance, prayers, repentance and acts of charity. By now we are expected to have
fully understood the core of love, freedom, and justice that enables us to enter
into a renewed world of worship that encompasses the family, the congregation,
the community and the nation.
Jesus entered Jerusalem for the last time to participate in the Jewish Passover
Holiday. He was fully aware that the day of His suffering and death was
approaching and unlike all times, He did not stop the people from declaring Him
a king and accepted to enter the city while they were happily chanting :
“Hosanna! Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord, the King of
Israel!”.(John 12/13). Some of the Pharisees in the crowd said to Jesus,
“Teacher, rebuke your disciples!” “I tell you,” he replied, “if they keep quiet,
the stones will cry out.” (Luke 19/39-40). Jesus entered Jerusalem to willingly
sacrifice Himself, die on the cross, redeem us and absolve our original sin.
On the Palm Sunday we take our children and grandchildren to celebrate the mass
and the special procession while happily they are carrying candles decorated
with lilies and roses. Men and women hold palm fronds with olive branches, and
actively participate in the Palm Procession with modesty, love and joy crying
out loudly: “Hosanna to the Son of David!” “Blessed is he who comes in the name
of the Lord!” “Hosanna in the highest!” (Matthew 21/09).
On the Palm Sunday through the procession, prayers, and mass we renew our
confidence and trust in Jesus. We beg Him for peace and commit ourselves to
always tame all kinds of evil hostilities, forgive others and act as peace and
love advocates and defend man’s dignity and his basic human rights. “Ephesians
2:14”: “For Christ Himself has brought peace to us. He united Jews and Gentiles
into one people when, in His own body on the cross, He broke down the wall of
hostility that separated us”
The Triumphal Entry of Jesus’ story into Jerusalem appears in all four Gospel
accounts (Matthew 21:1-17; Mark 11:1-11; Luke 19:29-40; John 12:12-19). The four
accounts shows clearly that the Triumphal Entry was a significant event, not
only to the people of Jesus’ day, but to Christians throughout history.
The Triumphal Entry as it appeared in Saint John’s Gospel, (12/12-19), as
follows : “On the next day a great multitude had come to the feast. When they
heard that Jesus was coming to Jerusalem, they took the branches of the palm
trees, and went out to meet him, and cried out, “Hosanna! Blessed is he who
comes in the name of the Lord, the King of Israel!” Jesus, having found a young
donkey, sat on it. As it is written, “Don’t be afraid, daughter of Zion. Behold,
your King comes, sitting on a donkey’s colt. ”His disciples didn’t understand
these things at first, but when Jesus was glorified, then they remembered that
these things were written about Him, and that they had done these things to Him.
The multitude therefore that was with Him when He called Lazarus out of the
tomb, and raised him from the dead, was testifying about it. For this cause also
the multitude went and met Him, because they heard that He had done this sign.
The Pharisees therefore said among themselves, “See how you accomplish nothing.
Behold, the world has gone after him.” Now there were certain Greeks among those
that went up to worship at the feast. These, therefore, came to Philip, who was
from Bethsaida of Galilee, and asked him, saying, “Sir, we want to see Jesus.”
Philip came and told Andrew, and in turn, Andrew came with Philip, and they told
Jesus.”
The multitude welcomed Jesus, His disciples and followers while chanting:
“Hosanna! Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord, the King of
Israel!”.(John 12/13). His entry was so humble, meek simple and spontaneous. He
did not ride in a chariot pulled by horses as earthly kings and conquerors do,
He did not have armed guards, nor officials escorting him. He did not come to
Jerusalem to fight, rule, judge or settle scores with any one, but to offer
Himself a sacrifice for our salvation.
Before entering Jerusalem, He stopped in the city of Bethany, where Lazarus
(whom he raised from the tomb) with his two sisters Mary and Martha lived. In
Hebrew Bethany means “The House of the Poor”. His stop in Bethany before
reaching Jerusalem was a sign of both His acceptance of poverty and His
readiness to offer Himself as a sacrifice. He is the One who accepted poverty
for our own benefit and came to live in poverty with the poor and escort them to
heaven, the Kingdom of His Father.
After His short Stop in Bethany, Jesus entered Jerusalem to fulfill all the
prophecies, purposes and the work of the Lord since the dawn of history. All the
scripture accounts were fulfilled and completed with his suffering, torture,
crucifixion, death and resurrection. On the Cross, He cried with a loud voice:
“It is finished.” He bowed his head, and gave up his spirit.(John19/30)
The multitude welcomed Jesus when He entered Jerusalem so one of the Old
Testament prophecies would be fulfilled. (Zechariah 9:9-10): “Rejoice greatly,
Daughter Zion! Shout, Daughter Jerusalem! See, your King comes to you, righteous
and victorious, lowly and riding on a donkey, on a colt, the foal of a donkey. I
will take away the chariots from Ephraim and the warhorses from Jerusalem, and
the battle bow will be broken. He will proclaim peace to the nations. His rule
will extend from sea to sea and from the River to the ends of the earth”.
The crowd welcomed Jesus for different reasons and numerous expectations. There
were those who came to listen to His message and believed in Him, while others
sought a miraculous cure for their ailments and they got what they came for, but
many others envisaged in Him a mortal King that could liberate their country,
Israel, and free them from the yoke of the Roman occupation. Those were
disappointed when Jesus told them: “My Kingdom is not an earthly kingdom” (John
18/36)
Christ came to Jerusalem to die on its soil and fulfill the scriptures. It was
His choice where to die in Jerusalem as He has said previously: “should not be a
prophet perish outside of Jerusalem” (Luke 13/33): “Nevertheless, I must go on
my way today and tomorrow and the day following, for it cannot be that a prophet
should perish away from Jerusalem”.
He has also warned Jerusalem because in it all the prophets were killed: (Luke
13:34-35): “O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, the city that kills the prophets and stones
those sent to her! How often I wanted to gather your children together, just as
a hen gathers her brood under her wings, and you would not have it! “behold,
your house is left to you desolate; and I say to you, you will not see Me until
the time comes when you say, ‘Blessed is He who comes in the name of the Lord”.
Explanation of the Palm Sunday Procession Symbols
The crowd chanted, “Hosanna to the Son of David” “Blessed is he who comes in the
name of the Lord!” “Hosanna in the highest!” (Matthew 21/09), because Jesus was
is a descendant of David. Hosanna in the highest is originated in the Psalm
118/25: “Please, LORD, please save us. Please, LORD, please give us success”. It
is a call for help and salvation as also meant by the Psalm 26/11: “But I lead a
blameless life; redeem me and be merciful to me”. Hosanna also means: God
enlightened us and will never abandon us, Jesus’ is a salvation for the world”
Spreading cloth and trees’ branches in front of Jesus to walk on them was an Old
Testament tradition that refers to love, obedience, submission, triumph and
loyalty. (2 Kings 09/13): “They hurried and took their cloaks and spread them
under him on the bare steps. Then they blew the trumpet and shouted, “Jehu is
king!”. In the old days Spreading garments before a dignitary was a symbol of
submission.
Zion is a hill in Jerusalem, and the “Daughter of Zion” is Jerusalem. The term
is synonymous with “paradise” and the sky in its religious dimensions.
Carrying palm and olive branches and waving with them expresses joy, peace,
longing for eternity and triumph. Palm branches are a sign of victory and
praise, while Olive branches are a token of joy, peace and durability. The Lord
was coming to Jerusalem to conquer death by death and secure eternity for the
faithful. It is worth mentioning that the olive tree is a symbol for peace and
its oil a means of holiness immortality with which Kings, Saints, children and
the sick were anointed.
The name “King of Israel,” symbolizes the kingship of the Jews who were waiting
for Jehovah to liberate them from the Roman occupation.
O, Lord Jesus, strengthen our faith to feel closer to You and to Your mercy when
in trouble;
O, Lord Jesus, empower us with the grace of patience and meekness to endure
persecution, humiliation and rejection and always be Your followers.
O, Lord Let Your eternal peace and gracious love prevail all over the world.
A joyous Palm Sunday to all
NB: The Above Piece was first published in 2014, republished with minor changes
Video-Link
for an interview from JNS with The Lebanese-Israeli Activist Jonathan Elkhoury
telling the story of betrayal and survival, revealing what most Lebanese
actually think today/A MASSIVE Uprising is Happening Right Now in Lebanon.
JNS TV/March 29/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/153248/
Jonathan Elkhoury tells a rarely told story of betrayal and survival, revealing
what most Lebanese actually think today. Through his personal journey from a
child in southern Lebanon to an Israeli citizen, viewers will learn the real
history behind Hezbollah’s rise, the collapse of the South Lebanon Army and why
a surprising majority of Lebanese may now be ready for change.
Netanyahu
Says Israel Will Widen Its Invasion of Southern Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Sunday that Israel will widen its
invasion of southern Lebanon. Netanyahu said Israel would expand what he called
the “existing security strip” in Lebanon as Israeli forces continue to target
the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group. “We are determined to fundamentally
change the situation in the north,” he said on a visit to northern Israel.
Netanyahu said Hezbollah still retained "residual capabilities" to fire rockets
at Israel, but the group had been severely hit by Israeli forces. "Iran is no
longer the same Iran, Hezbollah is no longer the same Hezbollah, and Hamas is no
longer the same Hamas," he added. "These are no longer terrorist armies
threatening our existence -- they are defeated enemies, fighting for their own
survival." "We are determined, we are fighting, and with God's help -- we are
winning," Netanyahu said. There were no immediate details.
In Lebanon, officials say more than 1,100 people have been killed and more than
one million displaced since the Iran war began.
Israeli
strikes kill 17 in southern Lebanon
AFP/March 29, 2026
Nine paramedics were also killed in separate Israeli strikes, Lebanon’s health
minister says. The Lebanese health ministry said a strike Saturday evening on
Hanniyeh town in Tyre province killed seven people, six Syrians, including a
child, and one Lebanese person, and wounded nine others. n Nabatiyeh province, a
strike on Deir Al-Zahrani killed seven people and wounded eight, while a
separate strike on Kfartabnit killed three and wounded four, the health ministry
said. ine paramedics were also killed in separate Israeli strikes, Lebanon’s
Health Minister Rakan Nassereddine said.
Those deaths on Saturday raised the death toll among health care workers in the
latest Israel-Hezbollah war to 51. ine hospitals have been subjected to attacks
and five closed as a result, Nassereddine said. orld Health Organization
Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus condemned the attacks on health
care, saying they “are severely disrupting the delivery of services in southern
Lebanon.”This has been the second-deadliest month for health care workers in
Lebanon since the UN agency began monitoring attacks on health care in the
country in October 2023, he said. srael has accused Hezbollah of using medical
facilities and ambulances for military purposes, without giving evidence.
eanwhile, the Israeli army announced on Sunday the death in combat of a soldier
in south Lebanon. Sergeant Moshe Yitzchak hacohen Katz, aged 22, from New Haven,
Connecticut, a soldier of the 890th battalion, Paratroopers Brigade, fell during
combat in southern Lebanon,” a military statement said. Five Israeli soldiers
have now been killed in fighting in south Lebanon.
Israeli war
kills more than 1,200 in Lebanon
Agence France Presse:/March 29, 2026
Lebanon's health ministry said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed 1,238
people in the country since the start of the latest war with Hezbollah on March
2.
The toll included 124 children, while more than 3,500 people had been wounded,
the ministry said in a statement. n Saturday and Sunday alone, 49 people were
killed, it said, including 10 rescue workers and three journalists.
French foreign minister condemns targeting of journalists
in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/March 29, 2026
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot condemned the killing of three
journalists in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon, stressing that journalists
should "never" be targeted in conflict zones. If it is proven that the
journalists in question were deliberately targeted by the Israeli army, this
would be extremely serious and constituting a flagrant violation of
international law," Barrot told "France 3" Channel. Journalists should never be
targeted in war zones, including when they have links with parties to the
conflict," he underlined.
UNIFIL) peacekeeper was killed in South Lebanon
REUTERS:/March 29, 2026
BEIRUT: The UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said a peacekeeper was
killed when a projectile exploded at one of its positions near the
southern Lebanese village of Adchit Al-Qusayr on Sunday. Another peacekeeper
was critically injured, it said in a statement early on Monday. “We do not
know the origin of the projectile. We have launched an investigation to
determine all of the circumstances,” UNIFIL added.
Funerals
held for three journalists killed in Israeli strike
Associated Press/March 29, 2026
Mourners gathered on Sunday in Choueifat, south of Beirut, for the funerals of
three journalists killed by an Israeli airstrike. li Shoeib, a correspondent
with Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV, Fatima Ftouni, a reporter with the pan-Arab al-Mayadeen
TV, and her brother Mohammed, a cameraman with the station, were killed in a
strike on their car while covering the Israel-Hezbollah war in southern Lebanon
on Saturday. Israel’s military said it had targeted Shoeib, accusing him of
being a Hezbollah intelligence operative, without providing evidence. Lebanese
officials have condemned the strike as a war crime. ourners chanted, “Death to
America” and “Death to Israel” as the bodies were buried in an empty lot
converted into a temporary graveyard during the war. “It’s not the first time
our colleagues are killed,” said Mohammad Ali Badreddine, an SNG engineer with
al-Mayadeen. “It’s a big loss... they were among the brightest and most
professional people and also among the kindest people.”
Israel and
Hezbollah Shift to Multi-Dimensional Warfare
Beirut: Youssef Diab/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The ongoing confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is taking on a new
character, with both sides moving beyond the largely conventional fighting seen
in 2024 toward a more complex, multi-layered conflict shaped by technology,
intelligence and flexible battlefield tactics. Nearly a month into the conflict,
neither side appears to be seeking a swift outcome. Instead, both are pursuing
incremental gains, reflecting an understanding that victory is unlikely to come
through a single blow but through sustained pressure over time. Israel has
maintained extensive use of drones, deploying them for surveillance as well as
targeted strikes against Hezbollah commanders and key positions. This approach
is backed by strong intelligence capabilities and technological superiority.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, has adjusted its approach, shifting toward a more
decentralized and mobile style of warfare, an evolution from the more static
defensive tactics that led to heavier losses during the 2024 conflict. Military
analyst Brigadier General Hassan Jouni says both sides have made clear strategic
adjustments based on lessons learned from previous fighting. “Geography remains
a decisive factor in shaping military operations,” Jouni said, highlighting
border areas such as the town of Khiam, which continues to serve as a key
flashpoint due to its strategic location.
He said Hezbollah has moved away from a strategy of fixed defense toward a more
dynamic and flexible model, allowing for greater mobility and adaptability on
the battlefield. Israel, for its part, appears to be probing Hezbollah’s
defensive capabilities — testing coordination, morale and combat readiness —
while avoiding immediate escalation into a full-scale ground assault. According
to military expert Brigadier General Said al-Qazah, Israel’s core tactics remain
largely consistent with those used in the previous 66-day war. Israel continues
to focus on dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure beyond the front
lines, relying on intelligence superiority and precision strikes targeting
leadership structures and logistical networks. These operations have included
strikes on missile stockpiles, launch platforms, command-and-control centers, as
well as economic and financial entities linked to Hezbollah.
Qazah noted that a defining feature of the current campaign is Israel’s use of a
“scorched earth” approach along the border, involving the systematic destruction
of villages to create a buffer zone. This is intended to deny Hezbollah fighters
the ability to use terrain and buildings for infiltration or anti-tank attacks
against advancing troops and northern Israeli communities. Hezbollah has sought
to counter Israel’s air superiority by adapting its tactics. Taking advantage of
the period following a ceasefire, the group has shifted toward decentralized
defense, abandoning fixed lines in favor of small, semi-autonomous units. These
units operate with greater decision-making flexibility, drawing on guerrilla
warfare principles. This approach complicates Israeli efforts to eliminate
Hezbollah’s combat capability through a single strike. So far, Israeli
pre-emptive strikes have not fully degraded Hezbollah’s operational capacity,
helping explain delays in launching a large-scale ground offensive. Hezbollah is
currently focusing on short-range rockets, aimed at maintaining sustained
pressure on Israel’s northern front and disrupting stability rather than
achieving a decisive military breakthrough. Jouni said this strategy complements
Iranian strikes, increasing strain on Israeli air defense systems while adding a
psychological dimension to the conflict. Hezbollah has also strengthened
internal security measures to limit infiltration, particularly in response to
drone strikes targeting its fighters. This has contributed to a relative
reduction in casualties along the front lines.The group appears intent on
maintaining continuous engagement with Israeli forces — even in the absence of a
major ground incursion — in an effort to wear them down over time.
A Fragile Balance
Israel’s current strategy centers on achieving fire control over areas south of
the Litani River through sustained air and naval strikes, combined with
psychological pressure aimed at prompting civilian displacement. However, a
broad ground advance has yet to materialize. Jouni said Israel appears to be
weighing options between establishing a buffer zone extending 5 to 8 kilometers
from the border or pushing deeper into southern Lebanon. “The course of the
fighting will determine the final decision,” he said, describing the current
situation as a “careful balance” in which both sides seek to achieve their
objectives without triggering a wider war.
Geopolitical Factor
A new factor shaping the conflict is the increased use of medium-range rockets
by Hezbollah, often synchronized with Iranian ballistic missile strikes. Qazah
said the aim is to overwhelm Israeli air defenses, allowing some missiles to
penetrate while also attempting to prompt civilians in northern Israel to
evacuate, an objective that has not yet been fully achieved. He added that
geography remains a key factor, with Israel relying on technological superiority
and gradual advances to navigate complex terrain, while prioritizing its broader
confrontation with Iran. Hezbollah, in turn, is using geography to prolong the
conflict and stretch Israeli forces. “The final outcome,” Qazah said, “will
ultimately depend on developments on the ground.”
Report: Iran’s Ambassador Won’t Leave
Lebanon Despite Expulsion
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
Iran's ambassador will not leave Lebanon despite being declared persona non
grata and ordered to leave the country by Sunday, an Iranian diplomatic source
told AFP. "The ambassador will not leave Lebanon, in accordance with the wishes
of the speaker of parliament Nabih Berri and of Hezbollah," the source said,
speaking on condition of anonymity.Hezbollah has denounced the decision while
Berri's Amal party joined Hezbollah ministers in boycotting a cabinet session
this week in protest at the order to expel Mohammad Reza Sheibani. The foreign
ministry this week gave Tehran's envoy until Sunday to leave in the latest
unprecedented step by Lebanese authorities since a new war erupted on March 2
between Israel and Hezbollah. The ministry accused him of making statements
"interfering in Lebanon's internal politics". French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel
Barrot called the expulsion "a courageous decision". The Lebanese authorities
have banned Hezbollah's military and security activities. It is the only armed
non-state group in the country and a close ally of Iran. It has also banned the
presence and operations of Iran's Revolutionary Guards whom Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam accused of directing Hezbollah operations against Israel.
Funerals Held in Lebanon for Three Journalists Killed in Israeli Strike
The funeral took place on Sunday in Lebanon of three journalists killed by an
Israeli strike on the south the previous day, an attack which Beirut called a
"blatant crime". Ali Shoeib, a veteran correspondent for Hezbollah's Al
Manar TV, Fatiman Ftouni of the pro-Hezbollah Al Mayadeen channel and her
brother, cameraman Mohammad Ftouni, were all killed when their vehicle was hit
in Jezzine in southern Lebanon. Israel's military in a statement alleged that
Shoeib "operated within the Hezbollah terrorist organization under the guise of
a journalist for the Al Manar network", without providing evidence. It did not
comment on the deaths of Ftouni and her brother. Lebanon was pulled into
the Middle East conflict when Tehran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel on
March 2 in revenge for the killing of Iran's supreme leader in the opening salvo
of the US-Israeli war against the Iran. Israel responded with large-scale
airstrikes across Lebanon and a ground offensive in the south. Lebanese
authorities say at least 1,189 people have been killed and over a million
displaced since the hostilities broke out. Many Hezbollah flags were in evidence
at the funeral in a temporary cemetery in Beirut's southern suburbs, where the
group holds sway.
AFP correspondents said hundreds of people attended the funeral, and the bodies
of Shoeib and Fatima Ftouni were draped in their channels' logos and with
bouquets of flowers. "Fatima and Ali were heroes," a relative of Ftouni's who
gave only his first name as Qassem told AFP.
"We will continue on this path, on this journey, even if we all become martyrs."
Ali Hashem, who had been close to Shoeib, said "losing them is very difficult",
but "we will not be broken". Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun condemned the
killings as "a blatant crime". French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told
public broadcaster France 3 on Sunday that journalists working in war zones
"must never be targeted, including when they have links with parties to the
conflict". "If it is indeed confirmed that the journalists in question were
deliberately targeted by the Israeli army, then this is extremely serious and a
blatant violation of international law," Barrot said. Since the start of
the previous hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in 2023, which a November
2024 ceasefire sought to end, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has
documented at least 11 Lebanese journalists and press workers killed by Israel.
In the Gaza Strip, where Israel fought a war against Palestinian armed group
Hamas from October 2023 until a ceasefire last year, 210 Palestinian journalists
and media workers have been killed by the Israeli military, the CPJ said.
Victory and Defeat Scenarios for Iran’s
Proxies in Lebanon and Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The future of Iran’s regional allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and
armed factions in Iraq, is increasingly uncertain as a widening conflict
reshapes the Middle East and tests the limits of Tehran’s long-standing proxy
strategy. Lebanese politician Michel Chiha once outlined a vision of Lebanon as
a country open to the world through its coastline, protected internally by its
mountainous terrain. He advocated a liberal, service-based economy rather than
heavy industry, while emphasizing that Israel represented the primary external
threat. His assessment was largely accurate, but incomplete. Chiha did not fully
account for the broader geopolitical system that governs Lebanon, one influenced
by global and regional powers. Lebanon has historically been vulnerable to
shifts between these two levels. When global and regional dynamics align, the
country experiences relative stability. When they clash, Lebanon often pays a
heavy price, including political paralysis, internal unrest, and even civil war.
If such conflicts persist without resolution, international powers tend to
intervene, often delegating regional actors to impose a settlement.
This pattern has repeated itself at key moments in Lebanon’s modern history: the
1958 crisis at the end of President Camille Chamoun’s term; the outbreak of
civil war in 1975; Syria’s 1990 intervention that ended General Michel Aoun’s
military government; the 2008 Doha Agreement following Hezbollah’s takeover of
Beirut; and more recently, political shifts culminating in the election of
President Joseph Aoun after the failure of Hezbollah’s “support war” to
meaningfully assist Gaza.
Iran in the region
Iran’s confrontation with the US-led global order dates back to the 1979
revolution. However, the strategic environment changed dramatically after the
September 11, 2001, attacks and the subsequent US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime reshaped the regional balance of power.
For the first time, US forces were positioned directly on Iran’s borders, in
both Iraq and Afghanistan. Tehran responded by expanding its influence through a
network of allied groups across the region. This strategy centered on the
development of proxies, linked geographically through what became known as the
“Axis of Resistance” and the concept of “unity of arenas.” These networks
extended across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, allowing Iran to project
influence across land, sea and air.
The so-called “Arab Spring” represented both an opportunity and a setback for
Iran. On one hand, it enabled Tehran to expand its presence by filling political
and security vacuums. On the other, it exposed its intentions, particularly as
it mobilized allied groups to support friendly regimes. Hezbollah’s intervention
in Syria marked a turning point. The group became deeply involved in a prolonged
and complex conflict, exposing vulnerabilities at multiple levels — security,
military and ideological. These weaknesses became evident during subsequent
confrontations with Israel, particularly during the Gaza war, when Israel
penetrated Hezbollah’s structure and targeted senior leaders.
Iraq enters the picture
Iraq occupies a central place in Iran’s geopolitical thinking. Historically, it
has been viewed as a major source of threat to Iranian national security, from
ancient times through to the modern era under Saddam Hussein during the
Iran-Iraq War.
After 2001, Iran found itself effectively encircled by US forces. The emergence
of the ISIS group in 2014, which seized large areas of Iraqi territory, further
underscored Iraq’s strategic importance. For Tehran, maintaining influence in
Iraq is essential to ensuring internal stability and national security. Control
or strong influence over Iraq provides strategic depth and helps prevent
potential threats from emerging on its western border.
Following the 2003 invasion, Iran’s regional strategy became more clearly
defined: Iraq as the base, Syria as the corridor, and Lebanon — through
Hezbollah — as the strategic endpoint or “crown jewel.”
October 7
The October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel is widely viewed as a “black swan”
event, one that disrupts the foundations of the existing order without
immediately creating a new equilibrium. The attack triggered a chain reaction
across the region. It exposed the limitations of Iran’s proxy-based strategy and
highlighted what is known in political theory as the “principal-agent problem.”
In this dynamic, the patron state - Iran - pursues broader strategic goals,
while proxies focus on local or ideological objectives.
This misalignment creates inherent risks. When proxies succeed, both sides
benefit. When they fail, the proxies bear the immediate consequences.
In the case of October 7, Iran was drawn into a conflict it neither fully
anticipated nor sought to escalate. It encouraged Hezbollah to intervene under
the banner of a “support war” for Gaza. The result was a cascading
deterioration, with both Hamas and Hezbollah suffering significant losses. The
concept of “unity of arenas” began to unravel as the conflict expanded. By 2025,
the situation escalated further when Israel and the United States launched a
coordinated military campaign against Iran in June, lasting 12 days.
The campaign included strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities using advanced
bunker-busting munitions carried by US B-2 bombers. It also reflected an
unprecedented level of coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv, not only in
execution but also in planning and target allocation. Another defining feature
of the conflict has been its reliance on remote warfare. Iran has used missiles
and drones to strike Israel and regional targets, while Israel, backed by US
capabilities, has relied on air power and technological superiority, including
the use of artificial intelligence in target selection and strike coordination.
Lebanon and Iraq in the crossfire
The regional conflict has drawn in multiple actors, though with varying levels
of involvement. Yemen’s Houthi militants have played a more limited and delayed
role, likely reflecting logistical constraints and strategic calculations.
In contrast, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-aligned factions within Iraq’s
Popular Mobilization Forces have been more actively engaged.
In Lebanon, Iran has sought to rebuild Hezbollah following its setbacks in 2024.
Reports suggest the group has been retrained in a decentralized form of warfare
known as “mosaic warfare,” which emphasizes dispersion, flexibility and the
avoidance of large-scale confrontations. This approach relies on a combination
of rockets, anti-tank weapons and drones, effectively returning Hezbollah to
tactics used prior to Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.
In Iraq, the situation differs. Armed factions have conducted attacks against US
interests but have also targeted Iraqi state institutions, including
intelligence facilities and radar systems. This dual targeting reflects internal
divisions and raises concerns about the erosion of state authority.
Lebanon and Iraq’s challenges
Lebanon and Iraq share similarities as internationally recognized sovereign
states, yet both face significant challenges in exercising full control over
their territories.
In Iraq, militias within the PMF are formally integrated into the state’s
security structure. However, some operate according to independent agendas that
do not always align with national interests. In Lebanon, Hezbollah operates as
both a military force confronting Israel and a powerful domestic actor. It has
often challenged state authority and pursued policies that diverge from official
government positions. The impact of the conflict has been more severe in
Lebanon. The country has experienced displacement, particularly in the south and
in parts of Beirut, as well as widespread destruction in Hezbollah strongholds.
Israeli forces have also established a presence in southern territories they had
not previously occupied. In contrast, Iraq has not faced large-scale
displacement or foreign occupation during this phase of the conflict. However,
internal instability remains a concern, particularly as tensions between
different political and ethnic groups persist. Strategically, Iraq continues to
serve as a cornerstone of Iran’s regional system. Lebanon, by contrast, has
become more isolated, especially following the disruption of supply routes to
Hezbollah through Syria.
War outcome
Several scenarios could shape the outcome of the conflict, each with significant
implications for Iran’s proxies in Lebanon and Iraq.
Diplomatic solution: At present, this scenario appears unlikely. The United
States is demanding concessions that Iran had previously rejected, while Tehran
is putting forward conditions that are seen as difficult to meet. Among these
are demands related to control over key maritime routes and broader regional
security arrangements. Iran has also linked any potential ceasefire to
developments on the Lebanese front, suggesting an effort to maintain influence
there. A diplomatic resolution would raise critical questions about Hezbollah’s
future, including the status of its weapons, its fighters and its role within
Lebanon’s political system. Current situation persists: A prolonged war of
attrition is seen as a scenario that could work in Iran’s favor. Time and
economic resources, particularly oil revenues, could allow Tehran to sustain the
conflict while gradually wearing down its adversaries. However, this scenario
carries significant risks. It could lead to deeper instability across the
region, particularly in Gulf states, while exacerbating internal tensions in
Iraq. In Lebanon, continued conflict could further weaken state institutions and
increase the risk of internal unrest.
War scenario.
American
University of Beirut Moves to Online Learning After Iran Threats
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The American University of Beirut on Sunday said it would operate remotely over
the next two days, following the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' threat to target
US universities in the region. "Like many of you, we learned early this morning
of threats issued against American universities in the region," AUB President
Fadlo Khouri said in a statement. "At this time, we have no evidence of direct
threats against our university, its campuses or medical centers. At the same
time, out of an abundance of caution, we will operate fully online on Monday and
Tuesday, with the exception of essential personnel." Classes and exams will be
carried out remotely, Khouri added. Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Sunday
threatened to target US universities in the Middle East after saying US-Israeli
strikes had destroyed two Iranian universities. "If the US government wants its
universities in the region to be free from retaliation... it must condemn the
bombing of the universities in an official statement by 12 noon on Monday, March
30, Tehran time," said the statement published by Iranian media. "We advise all
employees, professors, and students of American universities in the region and
residents of their surrounding areas" to stay a kilometer away from campuses,
the statement added. Several US universities have campuses scattered throughout
the Middle East, such as Texas A&M University in Qatar and New York University
in the United Arab Emirates. In Lebanon, the American University of Beirut is
one of the most prominent US institutions in the region. The university and its
hospital are located in the heart of Beirut. Lebanon was pulled into the Middle
East war on March 2 after Tehran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in
retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader.
Israel
military says another soldier killed in south Lebanon
Agence France Presse/March 29/2026
The Israeli army announced on Sunday the death in combat of a soldier in south
Lebanon. Sergeant Moshe Yitzchak hacohen Katz, aged 22, from New Haven,
Connecticut, a soldier of the 890th battalion, Paratroopers Brigade, fell during
combat in southern Lebanon," a military statement said.
Five Israeli soldiers have now been killed in fighting in south Lebanon since
Hezbollah began launching rocket attacks against Israel on March 2 to avenge the
killing of Iran's supreme leader.
Iran
foreign minister condemns Israeli killing of three journalists in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/March 29/2026
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday condemned Israel's killing of
three journalists in Lebanon the day before. n his official Telegram channel,
Araghchi said the killings amounted to "targeted assassination" and "flagrant
violation of international law".
Beirut Rescuers Risk Their Lives to Save Animals
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
Armed with thick gloves and small plastic crates Kamal, Khalil and Reem jump on
two mopeds and head into Beirut's southern suburbs, which see almost daily
strikes by Israeli aircraft. Hands scarred by a thousand bites and scratches,
the small rescue team from Lebanese NGO Animals Lebanon uses two-wheelers to
navigate streets made narrow by piles of rubble as they search for trapped
animals. In drizzling rain, the team is responding to two calls, passing from
crammed central districts filled with people seeking safety into increasingly
abandoned streets where Israeli airstrikes are concentrated. The are seeking a
pet cat they've been trying to trap for a week since it jumped through a
bombed-out ground-floor window, and another showing signs of paralysis, they
think from a recent Israeli bombing. "We never lose hope that the cat we can't
find is still around, because it will come back. This is its refuge," says
volunteer Khalil Hamieh, 45. Lebanon was pulled into the Middle East war on
March 2 when Tehran-backed group Hezbollah fired rockets towards Israel to
avenge the US-Israeli killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Israel has
responded with large-scale strikes on Lebanon and a ground offensive in the
country's south. On the edge of Haret Hreik in Beirut's southern suburbs, where
Hezbollah holds sway, Hamieh's colleague Issam Attar stops the jeep that will
bring the rescued cats to hospital. The mopeds can navigate onwards on two
wheels, and escape quickly if an Israeli strike is announced.
'A living being'
Between Israeli air raids and Hezbollah saying filming in the southern suburbs
is "strictly prohibited", media access has become more complicated lately, and
AFP journalists remained outside with Attar. "It's a living being," Attar said
of why he rescues animals. "It's not guilty of wars or anything else.""Besides
the fact that we feel for animals, there's also the owners who can't get their
animals -- we can, and we want to help them."Animals Lebanon told AFP its teams
had rescued 241 animals from south Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs, areas
under heavy bombardment since the start of the war.
In addition to killing over 1,100 people, the war has displaced over a million,
according to Lebanese authorities. In this city without air-raid sirens,
gunshots into the air warn people of incoming Israeli airstrikes. The shooting
and the ensuing explosions terrify cats especially, Animals Lebanon Operation
Manager Reem Sadek said, and many families can't find their pets as they rush to
evacuate. "Cats in particular, when there's a strike, they panic," she said.
"We're perhaps the only people with the experience to find... and capture
them."Some of the cats can't be immediately reunited with their owners, who have
nowhere to keep them as they sleep rough on the streets or crowd into shelters,
so the cats stay at the Animals Lebanon office.
'Risking our lives' -
The war has made everything more complicated for the rescuers, including the
evacuation from Lebanon of a five-month-old lion cub, still small but growing
bigger by the day inside their office. They confiscated her from wildlife
traffickers shortly before the war broke out, as they were searching for another
trafficked lion cub that they later tracked to Lebanon's rural northeast. The
airlines capable of bringing the lions from Lebanon to South Africa are not
flying due to the war, so they're trying to evacuate the cubs to Cyprus by boat.
For now, the Animals Lebanon team continues its rescue missions -- as well as
missions to feed stray animals and distribute food and veterinary medicine in
places where displaced people are staying. "We know we're risking our lives, and
not just because of the shelling," Hamieh says, showing the scarred backs of his
hands after they successfully rescued both cats and brought them out of the
danger area."We're afraid of a fight with a cat or a dog while trying to save
it," he says, "because it doesn't understand what we're doing."
Israel–Lebanon border security calls for cooperation, not control
Yossi Mekelberg/March 29/2026
With alarming frequency and rather quickly, the border between Israel and
Lebanon can shift from calm to high-intensity conflict. Until the late 1970s,
this frontier remained relatively quiet, despite the fact that the two countries
have technically been in a state of war since the end of the 1948 Arab-Israeli
conflict and have never signed a peace treaty. Early tensions largely took the
form of skirmishes involving Palestinian militants affiliated with various
factions of the Palestine Liberation Organization. However, after the PLO was
forced out of Lebanon in 1982, resistance to Israeli occupation became a
defining pillar of the newly established Lebanese Shiite militant movement,
Hezbollah. This narrative of resistance also provided a powerful pretext for the
Iranian-backed and financed organization to develop a military force that not
only rivalled the Lebanese Armed Forces but, in several respects, surpassed it —
enabling it to exert significant influence across large parts of the country.
Unlike the confrontation with Iran, in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has clearly articulated objectives that extend beyond neutralizing
nuclear and missile capabilities to include the prospect of regime change, one
of the stated aims in Lebanon is, at least in principle, the exact opposite of
creating the conditions for the Lebanese government to take control of the
country. Israel seeks to degrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and, in doing so,
also enable the Lebanese state to reassert control over the territory between
the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated ceasefire line, and the Litani River, about 30
km to the north. The strategic objective is to establish a buffer zone
separating Israeli territory from Hezbollah’s operational reach.
Yet, pursuing this objective through overwhelming military force carries
significant risks. Strikes that extend beyond Hezbollah’s military
infrastructure, resulting in large-scale casualties, including civilians and
children, and emergency personnel, while destroying houses and civilian
infrastructure, risks producing precisely the opposite of their intended effect.
Rather than weakening Hezbollah’s position, it reinforces its excuse for
remaining a military force, without active resistance to it by the government or
the Lebanese population. The risks would be even more pronounced if Israel were
to initiate a large-scale ground offensive, potentially leading to a prolonged
occupation of southern Lebanon, an outcome with a long-lasting and fraught
historical precedent.
This approach reflects a deeply embedded security paradigm within Israel’s
political and military leadership: the conviction that only direct control over
territory can ensure lasting security, rather than reliance on the capacity of
the Lebanese state or its armed forces.
Use of overwhelming military force carries significant risks.
As in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Hezbollah has moved to
inflame Israel’s northern front, launching cross-border rocket attacks that it
framed as a “revenge for the blood of the Supreme Leader of the Muslims, Ali
Khamenei.” Although both sides can be accused of violating the November 2024
ceasefire before the latest escalation, Hezbollah’s actions went beyond a
limited or localized breach. Instead, they signaled a deliberate re-entry into
sustained hostilities, likely aligned with Iranian strategic interests and
encouraged by Tehran.
Hezbollah’s leadership is unlikely to have acted without anticipating a forceful
Israeli response, particularly at a time when Israel is engaged in a war with
its chief opponent, Iran, and still has to concentrate forces in Gaza and the
West Bank. Indeed, this escalation may have been designed precisely to provoke
such a reaction. If Israel were to refrain from responding decisively, it would
risk appearing weak and overextended. After all, before the November 2024
ceasefire, large parts of northern Israel had been evacuated for over a year due
to persistent rocket attacks and the threat of incursions by Hezbollah’s elite
Radwan Force. The displacement of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians
represented a tangible strategic gain for Hezbollah — and, by extension, for
Iran — one that Israel is unlikely to accept as a new status quo. However, a
forceful Israeli response carries its own strategic dangers. The destruction of
critical infrastructure, such as bridges along the Litani River, and the
signaling of a potential ground operation aimed at establishing a security zone,
risks alienating the local population and further weakening the already fragile
Lebanese state.
This dynamic creates a self-reinforcing cycle that undermines long-term
stability. Actions intended to weaken Hezbollah risk instead entrenching its
role within Lebanon’s political and security landscape. Such an outcome would
complicate any future efforts to reach a negotiated settlement or move toward a
broader normalization of relations between Israel and Lebanon.
This dilemma poses a significant challenge for any Israeli government,
particularly one that is not equipped to handle complex situations requiring a
more nuanced approach. In this battle, the Israeli and Lebanese government and
most of its population are on the same side, as the latter seems to be
determined to take the country on a different path, helped by a weakened
Hezbollah, together with Iran, which have for decades hijacked the political
system and held the society to ransom.
Hezbollah, together with Iran, has hijacked the political system.
Israel’s desire to establish a security buffer between the Blue Line and the
Litani River is not, in itself, unreasonable. However, such an objective does
not necessarily require a sustained military presence or territorial occupation.
A more sustainable approach would prioritize avoiding prolonged occupation while
fostering cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces, thereby laying the
groundwork for a revised, mutually acceptable security arrangement.
In this regard, a practical benchmark for de-escalation would be a renewed
commitment to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 and
reaffirmed in the 2024 ceasefire framework. The resolution recognizes the
Lebanese government as the sole legitimate authority entitled to possess and
deploy weapons within the area between the Litani River and the Blue Line.
Effective implementation of this framework could allow for a full Israeli
withdrawal from contested areas, including the remaining outposts held after the
last ceasefire, while providing a measure of security through the
demilitarization of the border zone. This cannot be achieved without regional
and international support and a peacekeeping operation with a clear mandate.
Ultimately, the challenge along the Israel–Lebanon border lies in reconciling
two competing logics: the immediate demands of security and the longer-term
requirements of political stability. Military force may offer short-term
deterrence, but without a credible political framework, it risks perpetuating
the very conditions that give rise to recurring conflict. Only by shifting from
a paradigm of territorial control to one of cooperative security can a more
durable and stable equilibrium emerge along this volatile frontier.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg
Hezbollah’s
Plan After the Fall of Iran
Colonel Charbel Barakat/March 30/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/153254/
Why does Hezbollah terrorists keep fighting, despite so many deaths and intense
pressure? What if the Iranian regime, which supports them, falls or decides to
abandon them? People are asking these questions, but is Hezbollah’s leadership
even considering them? What will Hezbollah gain when Iranian Revolutionary Guard
officers leave and the orders from Tehran stop?
Israel has already weakened Hezbollah’s support base and destroyed much of its
capability. Will Israel agree to a ceasefire that gives Hezbollah any political
gains in Lebanon? Will it even allow a large number of Hezbollah’s supporters to
remain in Lebanon near its northern border? So, why is Hezbollah taking this
huge gamble, fighting a war with no clear goal or limit?
It is certain that Hezbollah’s political and military leaders have not planned
for a scenario of total loss, especially the surrender or fall of the Iranian
regime. They cannot imagine it. They believe their struggle is a religious duty
related to the “Hidden Imam” and his return. This is a matter of absolute faith
for them, not something to be questioned. They have raised generations to think
this way—to obey without analysis or even thinking.
This blind obedience might be acceptable for the general public and fighters.
But what about Shiite intellectuals and politicians? What about their allies in
the Amal Movement? Amal was not created by the Revolutionary Guard, and they
have had serious disagreements with Hezbollah in the past. Furthermore, there
are Shiite groups that reject the Iranian ideology of “Wilayat al-Faqih”
(Guardianship of the Jurist). Many of their thinkers have warned that following
this extreme path will lead to a dark future. They argue that the Shiite
community should work with other Lebanese and see Lebanon as their final
homeland, a view held by the late cleric Muhammad Mahdi Shamseddine and cleric
Ali al-Amin. Even the rulings of Grand Ayatollah Hussein Fadlallah did not
completely align with full obedience to the Iranian supreme leader.
During the 2006 war, when Iranian General Qasem Soleimani was directing
operations, Hezbollah was able to survive because other countries intervened to
stop the fighting. This was a missed opportunity. If the Lebanese government,
led by Fouad Siniora, had demanded that the ceasefire be enforced under Chapter
VII of the UN Charter (which allows for military force), Hezbollah’s armed
status could have been resolved then. Its members could have been reintegrated
into the nation. Instead, they were left alone for another twenty years to ruin
Lebanon’s relationships—both internally with other groups and externally with
neighboring and friendly countries.
Today, Hezbollah is leading what it sees as an existential war for the third
time. There are two possible outcomes. First, Hezbollah could survive. In this
scenario, its tyranny and control over Lebanon will continue. It will keep
training new generations to fight, take what isn’t theirs (especially from the
state), and smuggle illegal goods to make money. Its fighters will do nothing
but wait for orders to attack others—usually their neighbors. They are
ideologically authorized to attack Christian, Druze, and Sunni areas and force
them to pay protection money (jizya). They might even attack wealthy Shiites who
haven’t paid their religious taxes to Hezbollah.
The second outcome is that Hezbollah is wiped out. Its leaders would be captured
or killed, and its hardline members, who are difficult to integrate into the
nation, would be removed.
Currently, Hezbollah is using all the power it built up for the regime in
Tehran, from which it takes orders. While Tehran and other Iranian cities are
being bombed and destroyed—including military bases, missile factories, and
energy centers—Hezbollah is trying to harass Israel on its own territory. The
goal is to distract Israel and reduce the pressure on the Iranian regime, which
is suffering heavy losses in leadership, personnel, and equipment. Hezbollah is
firing at its Arab neighbors as well as Israel. It is suffering from waves of
destruction by American and Israeli jets and may not be able to continue this
difficult mission.
This is why Iran is pressuring Hezbollah to be an effective shield in the
regime’s war with its enemies. Hezbollah was built and funded heavily for this
exact purpose. Even after the war to “support Gaza,” where Hezbollah lost its
top commanders and many fighters, the Revolutionary Guard—which seems to rely
heavily on this Iranian armed proxy or its defense plans—sent Iranian army
officers to take control of its command structure, along with money and
equipment that was not easy to smuggle in to Lebanon.
Today, Hezbollah is putting its own community at risk of being displaced and
seeing their homes destroyed for the second time in a year. They hadn’t even
recovered from the first blow before the second one hit. Many have been forced
to flee to distant areas, over a thousand fighters have been killed so far, and
many facilities have been destroyed.
Will the final result be different than in the past? In the past, Hezbollah’s
community expected Arab nations and the Lebanese state to rush in with aid and
money for rebuilding. This time, it seems they are hoping for nothing. Arab
nations cannot pay, the Lebanese state is bankrupt, and the United States and
Europe are not interested in a similar move.
So, what is Hezbollah dreaming of? What is its plan to continue the war? Is it
betting that Israel and the U.S. will rebuild what was destroyed if it agrees to
stop fighting, as President Trump promised Hamas and the people of Gaza? Is it
going to keep fighting until the very last fighter, missile, and mine, so that
its negotiators (led by their “big brother” Speaker Nabih Berri) can convince
the international community to pay Hezbollah to stop its arrogance because there
are no other options?
The Israelis will not accept any weapons remaining in Hezbollah’s hands, no
matter how long the war lasts. Therefore, continuing to fight will not improve
the situation. When the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) focus on the “New Lebanon”
operation, they will not spare any spot or building that might have explosives
or weapons stored underneath it. We should expect total destruction and
displacement that precedes an occupation. Hezbollah is trying to hide its
weapons south of the Litani River, but Israel will target that area. It will
also target the area between the Litani and the Zahrani rivers, home to major
Shiite villages that have so far only been hit by airstrikes. These areas will
be “cleaned” of weapon stockpiles. This will happen east of Sidon, in the
southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahiya), and in the Bekaa Valley.
The late Hassan Nasrallah promised he had 100,000 fighters to send into battle.
So far, Hezbollah has lost at least 10,000 (killed or wounded and unable to
fight). By the time the preliminary fighting ends and the real, full-scale
military machine begins the war, they will have lost another 10,000. These are
their best, most experienced, and motivated fighters. With whom will they fight
the 400,000 Israeli soldiers who are preparing to enter Lebanon?
When preparation began to respond to the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, which took
twenty days, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed groups were boasting of
their ability and preparing to “throw Israel into the sea.” But after the
Israeli forces began to move, their boasting turned to screams from under the
rubble of destroyed buildings. What will Hezbollah do today, after losing half
of the forces Nasrallah theoretically prepared? Will there be anyone left to
tell the story when tanks sweep through empty areas as people scramble to stay
alive?
We say to anyone who has wisdom or a little bit of understanding: Stop this.
Fear God. If God has not given you the foresight to see what is coming, He has
at least given you eyes to see what is happening right now and understand things
after they happen. We ask of you only a little awareness to save these poor
people from further suffering. Despite everything you have been given, you still
exploit the slogan of “the dispossessed.” What will you say after this war and
after seeing its results?
O Lord, remove Your anger from us and enlighten the minds of those leading the
nation. May they save the people from more tragedies by acting responsibly. May
they understand what these reckless actions will lead to and use the army and
security forces to prevent these people from committing suicide and killing
innocent civilians.
The War on Hezbollah-The Iranian Terrorist Proxy Continues/LCCC website
The just war being waged by the United States and Israel against Iran and its
proxies—devils, terrorists, drug traffickers, and mafia networks—continues
relentlessly and will not stop before their complete defeat.
To follow the news, below are- links to several
important news websites:
National News Agency (Lebanon)
https://www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar
Nidaa Al Watan
https://www.nidaalwatan.com/
MTV Lebanon
https://www.mtv.com.lb/
Voice of Lebanon
https://www.vdl.me/
Asas Media
https://asasmedia.com/
Naharnet
https://www.naharnet.com/
Al Markazia News Agency
https://almarkazia.com/ar
LBCI (English)
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/en
LBCI (Arabic)
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/ar
Janoubia Website
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/ar
Kataeb Party Official Website
https://www.kataeb.org
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published
on March
29-30/2026
Mediators gather in Pakistan for talks on ending the monthlong Iran war
Associated Press/March 29, 2026
Top diplomats from key regional powers were gathering in Pakistan on Sunday to
discuss how to end the fighting in the Middle East, but there were few signs of
progress as Israel and the U.S. kept up strikes on Iran, and Tehran responded by
firing missiles and drones across the region.
Pakistan said foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt were
participating in the talks in Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
said he and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian held "extensive discussions" on
regional hostilities.More than 3,000 people have been killed throughout the
monthlong war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, triggering
Iran's attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab states. The war has also
threatened oil and gas supplies with Iran's grip on the strategic Strait of
Hormuz shaking markets. The U.S. and Israel were not participating in the talks
in Pakistan. The U.S. has sent additional troops to the Middle East, while
Yemen's Houthi rebels entered the fighting over the weekend, threatening to
widen the war and further hurt global shipping. Israel announced waves of
incoming strikes from Iran on Sunday and explosions could be heard throughout
Tehran. Egypt's Badr Abdelatty, Turkey's Hakan Fidan and Saudi Arabia's Prince
Faisal Bin Farhan were in Islamabad as part of talks scheduled days after the
U.S. offered Iran a 15-point "action list," delivered through Pakistan as a
framework for a possible peace deal. Abdelatty said the meetings were aimed at
opening a "direct dialogue" between the U.S. and Iran, which have largely
communicated through mediators during the war.
Iranian officials have publicly rejected the U.S. framework and dismissed the
idea of negotiating under pressure. Still, Press TV, the English-language arm of
Iran's state broadcaster, reported that Tehran had drafted its own five-point
proposal, citing an anonymous official. The plan reportedly calls for a halt to
the killing of Iranian officials, guarantees against future attacks, reparations
for the war, an end to hostilities and Iran's "exercise of sovereignty over the
Strait of Hormuz."The weekend provided little sign of the talks narrowing the
disconnect between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. officials have insisted the war may
be nearing an inflection point but Iranian leaders continue to publicly reject
negotiations. To the contrary, the United States has dispatched thousands of
additional Marines and paratroopers to the region. And the Iran-backed Houthis,
who govern parts of Yemen, announced their long-awaited entry into the war,
launching missiles toward what they called "sensitive Israeli military sites"
for the first time on Saturday. Despite the deployments, U.S. Secretary of State
Marco Rubio said on Friday that Washington "can achieve all of our objectives
without ground troops" as domestic opposition grows to expanding the war to a
potential ground invasion, including among Republicans. ehran threatens
retaliatory strikes on Israeli and US universities. Iran on Sunday warned of
additional escalation after airstrikes hit several universities, including ones
that Israel claimed were used for nuclear research and development.
The paramilitary Revolutionary Guard warned in a statement that Iran would
consider Israeli universities and branches of American universities in the
region "legitimate targets" without safety assurances for Iranian universities,
state media reported. American universities including Georgetown, New York
University and Northwestern have campuses in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
"If the U.S. government wants its universities in the region spared, it should
condemn the bombardment of (Iranian) universities by 12 o'clock Monday, March
30, in an official statement," the Guard said.
It also demanded the U.S. stop Israel from striking Iranian universities and
research centers. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said last
week that dozens of universities and research centers have been hit, among them
the Iran University of Science and Technology and Isfahan University of
Technology. Houthi Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said on the rebels' Al-Masirah
satellite television station that they launched missiles toward "sensitive
Israeli military sites" in the south. If the Houthis increase attacks on
commercial shipping, as they have in the past, it would further push up oil
prices and destabilize "all of maritime security," said Ahmed Nagi, a senior
Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group. "The impact would not be
limited to the energy market." The Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the
Arabian Peninsula, is crucial for vessels heading to the Suez Canal through the
Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has been sending millions of barrels of crude oil a day
through it because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Houthi rebels
attacked more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two
vessels, between November 2023 and January 2025. The group said it acted in
solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthis'
latest involvement would complicate the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford,
the aircraft carrier that arrived in Croatia on Saturday for maintenance.
Sending the ship to the Red Sea could draw attacks similar to those on the USS
Dwight D. Eisenhower in 2024 and the USS Harry S. Truman in 2025. The Houthis
have held Yemen's capital, Sanaa, since 2014. Saudi Arabia launched a war
against the Houthis on behalf of Yemen's exiled government in 2015 and they now
have an uneasy ceasefire.
Death toll climbs
Iranian authorities say more than 1,900 people have been killed in the Islamic
Republic, while 19 have been reported dead in Israel. n Lebanon, where Israel
has started an invasion in the south while targeting the Hezbollah militant
group, officials said more than 1,100 people have been killed in the country
since the start of the war. In Iraq, where Iranian-supported militia groups have
entered the conflict, 80 members of the security forces have died. n Gulf
states, 20 people have been killed. Four have been killed in the occupied West
Bank.
JD or Marco?’: Iran War Raises 2028 Stakes as Trump Weighs
Vance vs. Rubio
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
As the war in Iran threatens to imperil President Donald Trump's legacy, the
political stakes also are rising for two of his top lieutenants: Vice President
JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The pair, widely viewed as
potential successors to Trump, have been thrust into still-developing
negotiations to end the war at a moment when the Republican Party is already
weighing its post-Trump future.
Vance has taken a cautious approach, reflecting his
skepticism toward prolonged US military involvement, while Rubio has aligned
himself closely with Trump’s hawkish stance and emerged as one of the
administration’s most vocal defenders of the campaign.
Trump has said both men were involved in efforts to force Iran to accept US
demands to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and allow oil
traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. With the next presidential
election due in 2028 and term limits barring Trump from running again, the
president has been putting the succession question to allies and advisers in
private, asking "JD or Marco?," two people familiar with his views said. The
outcome of the US military operation now in its fifth week could shape the two
men's 2028 prospects, political analysts and Republican officials said. A swift
end to the war that favors the US might bolster Rubio, who also serves as
Trump's national security adviser and could be seen as a steady hand during a
crisis. A prolonged conflict could give Vance space to argue he reflected the
anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without openly breaking with the president.
Trump's own standing is also at stake. His approval rating fell in recent days
to 36%, its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit by a surge
in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the Iran war, a four-day Reuters/Ipsos
poll completed last week found. Some Republicans say they are watching
closely for which senior aide Trump appears to favor as the Iran conflict
unfolds. Some see signs of Trump leaning toward Rubio but note he could change
his mind quickly. "Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on
Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance," a Republican with close ties to the
White House said. The White House rejected the idea that Trump is signaling a
preference. "No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance
and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration's mission of fighting for the
American people," spokesman Steven Cheung said.
FROM TRUMP RIVALS TO LIKELY HEIRS
Vance, 41, a former Marine who served in Iraq, has long argued against US
entanglements in foreign wars. His public comments on Iran have been limited and
calibrated, and Trump has noted the two have "philosophical differences" on the
conflict. Once a self-described "never-Trumper," Vance
wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in 2023 saying Trump's best
foreign policy was not starting any wars during his first four years in office
between 2017 and 2021. The White House has downplayed any rift between the
president and vice president. Standing alongside Trump in the Oval Office
earlier this month, Vance said he supported Trump's handling of the war and
agreed with him that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon. Vance could take
on a more direct role in negotiations if Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff
and son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress, a person with knowledge
of the matter said. "Vice President Vance is proud to be a part of a highly
effective team that, under President Trump’s bold leadership, has had incredible
success in making America safer, more secure and more prosperous," a Vance
spokeswoman said. A senior White House official, who
like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely about a
sensitive topic, said Trump tolerates ideological differences as long as aides
remain loyal, adding that Vance's skeptical views have helped inform Trump about
where part of his voter base stands. A person familiar
with Vance's views told Reuters the vice president will wait until after the
November midterm elections before deciding on whether to run in 2028.Vance won
the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference's annual
gathering, with about 53% of the more than 1,600 attendees who voted favoring
him as the next Republican nominee. The results released on Saturday also showed
Rubio gaining ground, finishing second at 35%, up from just 3% last year. Rubio,
54, has said he will not run for president if Vance does, and sources familiar
with Rubio's views say he would be content as Vance's running mate. But any
perceived vulnerability for Vance could encourage Rubio and other Republicans
eyeing bids. "Trump has a long memory," said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean.
"And he may call out Vance for his lack of allegiance. And if Trump remains
popular with the MAGA base, that could hurt him by not getting the endorsement
of the president."
Trump has floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting they
would be hard to beat. "Trump doesn’t want to anoint anyone," the senior White
House official said. A March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 79% of Republicans
have a favorable view of Vance, while 19% viewed him negatively. Some 71% had a
positive view of Rubio, while 15% viewed him unfavorably. In comparison, 79% of
Republicans viewed Trump favorably and 20% unfavorably. Rubio, whose 2016
presidential aspirations were snuffed out after a bitter confrontation with
Trump, has long since set aside any frictions with the president. State
Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said Rubio "has a great relationship, both
professionally and personally" with Trump's team.
Rubio and the White House were forced into damage control after he angered some
of Trump's conservative backers when he suggested that Israel pushed the United
States into the war. But in the weeks since, Trump has praised Rubio's
efforts.Asked whether Rubio was concerned that a protracted war might damage his
political future, a senior State Department official said, "He has not spent a
second thinking about this.”
DIFFERENCES ON DISPLAY
Matt Schlapp, a conservative leader who runs CPAC, said the Iran campaign will
have big political consequences. "If it is seen as successful at getting the job
done...I think people will be politically rewarded for doing the right thing,"
Schlapp said. "If it goes on and on and on... I think the politics are
tough."Republicans remain broadly supportive of the US military strikes against
Iran, with 75% approving compared to just 6% of Democrats and 24% of
independents, Reuters/Ipsos polling showed. At a televised Cabinet meeting on
Thursday, the contrast between Rubio and Vance was on display. Rubio gave a
full-throated defense of Trump's attack on Iran. "He's not going to leave a
danger like this in place," the secretary of state said. Vance was more
measured, focusing on options for depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon. He closed
by wishing Christians and US troops in the Gulf a blessed Holy Week and Easter.
"We continue to stand behind you," he said to service members, "and continue to
support you every step of the way."
Pentagon
preparing for ground operations in Iran: Report
AFP/29 March/2026
The Pentagon is preparing plans for weeks of ground operations in Iran --
potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of
Hormuz -- though President Donald Trump has not yet approved any deployment, the
Washington Post reported Saturday. Any ground operation would stop short of a
full-scale invasion, instead involving raids by special operations forces and
conventional infantry troops, the Post said, citing unnamed officials. US
Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted on Friday the United States “can achieve
all of our objectives without ground troops,” but the Post said planning is
advanced, with one official saying: “This is not last-minute planning.”
US plots ground attack despite diplomatic efforts, Iran
parliament speaker says
Al Arabiya English/29 March/2026
Iran’s parliament speaker on Sunday accused the United States of plotting a
ground attack despite talking about diplomacy, after a US warship with around
3,500 military personnel arrived in the Middle East. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s
comments come after more than a month of aerial bombardment of Iran by US and
Israeli forces and ahead of talks between key regional players on Monday.The war
has escalated into a regional conflagration as Iran has retaliated with attacks
on Gulf states, sending energy markets into a tailspin and threatening the world
economy.“The enemy publicly sends messages of negotiation and dialogue while
secretly planning a ground attack,” Ghalibaf said in a statement carried by the
official IRNA news agency. “Our men are waiting for the arrival of the American
soldiers on the ground,” he added. “As long as the Americans seek Iran’s
surrender, our response is that we will never accept humiliation,” he said in a
message to the nation. The USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship carrying
around 3,500 Marines and sailors, arrived in the Middle East on Friday. The
Washington Post reported the Pentagon was preparing plans for weeks of ground
operations -- potentially including raids on Kharg Island and sites near the
Strait of Hormuz -- though US President Donald Trump has yet to approve any
deployment. Iran says it has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital
shipping lane which accounted for a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade,
to hostile shipping. Trump has repeatedly spoken of diplomatic contacts with
Iran, although these claims has been denied by Tehran. Trump’s special envoy
Steve Witkoff has said a US-Iran meeting could take place soon, and promoted a
15-point plan that Washington says “could solve it all.”Pakistan, acting as a
go-between for Washington and Tehran, has hosted foreign ministers from Saudi
Arabia, Turkey and Egypt in Islamabad on Monday for talks on the crisis. With
agencies
US, Israeli strikes hit Iran port city near Strait of
Hormuz: State media
Al Arabiya English/29 March/2026
US-Israeli strikes on Sunday hit a quay at an Iranian port city near the
strategic Strait of Hormuz, killing five people, Iranian state media reported.
“The American-Zionist enemy carried out a criminal attack at the quay of Bandar
Khamir, killing five people and injuring four others,” the official IRNA news
agency reported. Earlier on Sunday, AFP announced that a series of loud
explosions was heard Sunday across the Iranian capital. The blasts were heard in
northern Tehran and smoke was seen rising from impacted areas in the city's
northeast. It was not immediately clear what was hit.
Israel and the US have launched strikes on Iran since February 28. In response,
Iran has targeted both Israel and US bases in addition to indiscriminately
firing on countries in the region. With AFP
Iran
Guards Threaten to Hit US Universities in Middle East
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Sunday threatened to target US universities in the
Middle East after saying US-Israeli strikes had destroyed two Iranian
universities."If the US government wants its universities in the region to be
free from retaliation... it must condemn the bombing of the universities in an
official statement by 12 noon on Monday, March 30, Tehran time," said the
statement published by Iranian media. The statement
added: "We advise all employees, professors, and students of American
universities in the region and residents of their surrounding areas" stay a
kilometer away from campuses.Several US
universities have campuses scattered throughout the Gulf region, such as Texas
A&M University in Qatar and New York University in the United Arab
Emirates.Strikes overnight Friday to Saturday hit Tehran, including the
university of science and technology in the northeast of the capital, damaging
buildings but not causing any casualties, according to media reports.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt discuss ways to bring
permanent end to Iran war
Al Arabiya English/29 March/2026
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt discussed “possible ways to bring an
early and permanent end to the war” in the Middle East during talks in Islamabad
on Sunday, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said. The foreign ministers of
the four countries met in the Pakistani capital as part of efforts to
de-escalate the conflict between the United States and Iran, with Islamabad
acting as an intermediary between the two sides. In a recorded statement, Dar
said all participants expressed confidence in Pakistan’s role as a facilitator,
adding that China “fully supports” the initiative to host potential US-Iran
talks in Islamabad.Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said the meeting, held at Dar’s
invitation, focused on reviewing the evolving regional situation and discussing
issues of mutual interest. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and his
Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan arrived in Islamabad on Saturday, while Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived on Sunday. Dar also held
separate bilateral meetings with each of his counterparts. Pakistan has emerged
as a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran as the conflict continues,
relaying messages between the two sides. Islamabad maintains longstanding ties
with Iran as well as close relations with Gulf states and the United States.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Saturday he held a more than hour-long
phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, during which he outlined
Pakistan’s ongoing diplomatic outreach. Pezeshkian thanked Islamabad for its
mediation efforts to help halt the conflict. Tehran has publicly denied holding
direct talks with Washington, but has conveyed a response to US President Donald
Trump’s 15-point proposal through intermediaries, according to a source cited by
Iran’s Tasnim news agency. Separately, Dar said Iran had allowed 20 additional
Pakistani-flagged vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as
a confidence-building measure. “Dialogue, diplomacy, and such
confidence-building measures are the only way forward,” Dar said in a post on X.
Iran’s heavy water production plant no longer operational,
IAEA says
Agencies/30 March/2026
The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Sunday that Iran’s heavy water
production plant at Khondab, which the country reported had been attacked on
March 27, has suffered severe damage and is no longer operational. The
installation contains no declared nuclear material, the UN nuclear watchdog
added in a social media post on X. The Israeli military confirmed it struck a
heavy water reactor and a uranium processing plant in central Iran on Friday.
“The Israeli Air Force... struck the heavy water plant in Arak, central Iran,”
the military said in a statement, describing the site as a “key plutonium
production site for nuclear weapons.”Iranian media had reported that US-Israeli
strikes hit the Khondab heavy water complex, saying they caused no casualties or
radiation leak from the site. Work on the reactor on the outskirts of the
village of Khondab began in the 2000s, but was halted under the terms of a
now-abandoned 2015 nuclear deal struck between Iran and world powers.The core of
the reactor was removed and concrete was poured into it, rendering it
inoperative.The research reactor was officially intended to produce plutonium
for medical research and the site includes a production plant for heavy
water.The Israeli military also confirmed it struck a uranium processing site in
central Iran’s Yazd on Friday, after Iran’s atomic energy organization said
US-Israeli strikes hit the facility. “The Israeli Air Force... struck a uranium
extraction plant located in Yazd, central Iran,” the military said in a
statement, describing the site as a “unique facility in Iran used for the
production of raw materials required for the uranium enrichment process.”Iran’s
atomic energy organization said the strike on the plant “did not result in the
release of any radioactive material.”Israel and the US accuse Iran of seeking to
acquire nuclear weapons, while Tehran maintains that its program is for civilian
purposes. The heavy water plant in Arak was targeted by Israeli strikes during
the 12-day war between Iran and Israel last June, during which the US also
carried out bombings.The Middle East was plunged into war on February 28 when
the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, triggering retaliatory missile
and drone attacks targeting Israel and several countries in the region.
Saudi Arabia condemns attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan leaders’ residences
Al Arabiya English/29 March/2026
Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry on Sunday condemned attacks targeting the
residences of Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani and Kurdistan
Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani, as well as all attacks on Iraq’s
Kurdistan Region. “The Kingdom emphasizes its rejection of anything that
threatens the security and stability of Iraq, and affirms its solidarity with
Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and its support for their security and
stability,” the ministry said in a statement. The condemnation follows a drone
attack on Saturday that targeted a residence of Nechirvan Barzani. The Iraqi
government has said it will investigate the attack, which struck one of
Barzani’s homes. Since the launch of the US-Israeli offensive against Iran on
February 28, Iraq has been increasingly drawn into a regional conflict it has
sought to avoid. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have claimed near-daily
responsibility for drone and rocket attacks targeting US military positions both
within Iraq and elsewhere in the region.
Any Iran deal must include guarantees against future
attacks: UAE diplomat
Al Arabiya English/29 March/2026
Any political solution addressing Iranian attacks against Gulf nations must
include firm guarantees to prevent future violations and mandate Iranian
reparations, the diplomatic advisor to the UAE president said on Sunday. “Any
political solution addressing the Iranian aggression against the Arab Gulf
states must include clear guarantees to prevent future violations, uphold the
principle of non-aggression, and mandate Iranian reparations for targeting
civilian and vital facilities as well as civilians,” Anwar Gargash said on X.
Gargash accused Iran of misleading its neighbors about its intentions prior to
the conflict, despite what he described as sincere Gulf efforts to avoid
escalation. “Iran deceived its neighbors before the war about its intentions and
revealed a premeditated aggression despite their [neighbor’s] sincere efforts to
avoid it, making these two paths essential in confronting a regime that has
become the primary threat to the security of the Arab Gulf.”His comments come as
tensions remain high across the region, with Gulf states weighing diplomatic
pathways.
University in Iran’s Isfahan was hit by US-Israeli strike
AFP/29 March/2026
A university in Iran’s central city of Isfahan said it was hit by US-Israeli
airstrikes on Sunday for the second time since the war between the foes erupted
a month ago. “Around 2:00 PM (1030 GMT) today, Isfahan University of Technology
was targeted for the second time (during the war) by a brutal airstrike of
Zionist-American aggressors,” the university said in a statement carried by Fars
news agency.“According to initial reports, the attack on one of the university’s
research institutes also caused damage to several other buildings and resulted
in minor injuries to four university staff members,” it added.
France condemns Israeli police blocking Jerusalem’s Latin
Patriarch
AFP/29 March/2026
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned Israeli police for blocking the Latin
Patriarch of Jerusalem from giving Palm Sunday mass, saying worship “for all
religions” must be guaranteed in Jerusalem. “I condemn this decision by the
Israeli police,” who prevented Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa -- the top
Catholic figure for Israel and the Palestinian territories -- Macron said on X.
Their action “adds to a worrying series of violations of the status of holy
places in Jerusalem,” he said.
EU shows support for Gulf nations facing Iran attacks
Al Arabiya English/29 March/2026
EU Council President Antonio Costa said on Sunday that the European Union stands
in solidarity with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries amidst Iranian
airstrikes and drone attacks in the region, adding that “these attacks must stop
immediately.”Costa said in a post on X that he had a call on Sunday with UAE
President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and reiterated that “the EU
stands by the United Arab Emirates, which has been among the hardest hit.”The
Gulf Cooperation Council is a group that comprises Saudi Arabia, Bahrain,
Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and the UAE. On February 28, the United States and Israel
launched strikes on Iran that killed its supreme leader and triggered a war in
the Middle East. Tehran has responded with drone and missile attacks across the
region, including strikes that have hit neighboring countries that say they are
neither involved in the war nor have allowed warring parties to launch attacks
from their territory. With Reuters
Three dead in Russian attack on Kramatorsk in eastern
Ukraine, police say
Reuters/29 March/2026
A Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk killed three people
and injured 13 on Sunday, police said, one of several attacks in frontline
areas. Ukraine’s national police said a boy of 13 was among the dead. A
statement said Russian forces used glide bombs in the strike on Kramatorsk,
which has been a frequent target throughout the four-year-old war pitting Kyiv
against Moscow. Kramatorsk came under a new attack two hours after the initial
strike. Other cities hit in Russian attacks included the nearby town of
Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and the city of Sloviansk, farther north. Kramatorsk and
Sloviansk are heavily defended cities lying on what has been dubbed the
“fortress belt” -- seen as key targets in Russia’s slow westward advance to
capture Donetsk Region. Reuters could not independently verify battlefield
accounts.
Russian tanker nears Cuba, defying US oil blockade
AFP/29 March/2026
A Russian oil tanker under US sanctions is scheduled to arrive in Cuba on
Monday, challenging a de facto American fuel blockade of the energy-starved
island, shipping data shows. The Anatoly Kolodkin, which is carrying 730,000
barrels of crude, was north of Haiti on Sunday as it headed towards the port of
Matanzas in western Cuba, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler. Cuba lost
its main regional ally and oil supplier in January when US forces captured
Venezuela’s socialist leader Nicolas Maduro. US President Donald Trump
subsequently threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending oil to Cuba and
has mused about “taking” the communist-ruled island.Jorge Pinon, an expert on
Cuba’s energy sector at the University of Texas at Austin, said he was surprised
the United States did not try to intercept the Russian tanker before it got so
close to Cuba. “I think now the chances that the United States will try to stop
her have basically disappeared,” Pinon told AFP, though he added that it was
difficult to assess what the White House might do. Once the boat enters Cuban
waters, he said, it “is almost impossible for the US government to stop it.”
Urgent need: diesel
The Cuban government says it has not received any oil since January, deepening
an energy crisis in the country of 9.6 million people. President Miguel Diaz-Canel
imposed emergency measures to conserve fuel, including strict rationing of
gasoline. Fuel prices have soared, public transport has dwindled and some
airlines have suspended flights to Cuba, hitting the country’s fragile economy.
Cubans have endured regular outages as its aging power plants struggle to meet
demand, with seven nationwide blackouts since 2024, including two this month.
The Anatoly Kolodkin, which is under US sanctions, was loaded with oil in the
Russian port of Primorsk on March 8. It was escorted by a Russian navy ship
across the English Channel, but the two vessels split when the tanker entered
the Atlantic, according to the British Royal Navy. Another ship that was
reportedly carrying Russian diesel to Cuba, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse,
arrived in Venezuela instead earlier this week. Once the Anatoly Kolodkin’s
crude arrives in Cuba, it would take about 15-20 days to process the oil and
another 5-10 days to deliver its refined products, Pinon said.“The urgent need
today in Cuba is diesel,” the former oil executive said. The Russian shipment
could be converted into 250,000 barrels of diesel, enough to cover the country’s
demand for around 12.5 days, according to Pinon. Pinon said the government would
have to decide whether to use the fuel for backup power generators or for the
buses, tractors and trains needed to keep the economy going for two weeks. “If
you are Diaz-Canel or somebody making the decision, you go, ‘OK, where do I go
with that diesel’?” he said. “Do I want to generate more electricity so there
are less apagones (blackouts)? Or do I want it put it in the transportation
sector?”
Arab Foreign Ministers Name Nabil Fahmy as Arab League Chief
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
Arab foreign ministers agreed unanimously on Sunday to nominate Egyptian
diplomat Nabil Fahmy as secretary-general of the Arab League, succeeding Ahmed
Aboul Gheit, whose second term in charge ends in June 2026, Egyptian state media
outlets reported. The decision came during a video conference. Under the Arab
League charter, the secretary-general is appointed by at least a two-thirds
majority. While the charter does not stipulate a specific nationality for the
post, it has traditionally been held by an Egyptian, except for Tunisian Chedli
Klibi, who held the position from 1979 to 1990, reflecting Cairo’s role as
host of the organization’s headquarters. Fahmy,
Egypt's foreign minister from June 2013 to July 2014, also previously served as
Egypt’s ambassador to the US from 1999 to 2008 and to Japan between 1997 and
1999. He is the son of Ismail Fahmy, Egypt’s foreign minister under President
Anwar Sadat from 1973 to 1977 when he resigned in opposition to Sadat's visit to
Jerusalem.The Arab League, founded in 1945, brings together 22 member states to
coordinate political, economic, and cultural policies across the region.
Israeli Police Prevent Catholic Leaders from Celebrating Palm Sunday Mass at
Jerusalem Church
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The Israeli police prevented Catholic leaders from entering the Church of the
Holy Sepulchre to celebrate Mass on the Christian holiday of Palm Sunday for the
first time in centuries, the Latin Patriarchate said Sunday. Jerusalem's major
holy sites are closed because of the ongoing Iran war, including the church, as
the city has come under frequent fire from Iranian missiles. The Catholic Church
called the police decision “a manifestly unreasonable and grossly
disproportionate measure.” It prevented two of the church’s top religious
leaders, including Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa and the head of the Custos
in the Holy Land, from celebrating Palm Sunday at the place where Christians
believe Jesus was crucified. Palm Sunday commemorates Jesus’ triumphant entry
into Jerusalem and launches the Holy Week commemorations for Christians who
follow the Latin calendar, which culminates in Easter next Sunday.
The Israeli police said it had notified the Catholic Church on Saturday that no
Mass could take place on Palm Sunday because of safety considerations, the lack
of access for emergency vehicles in narrow alleys of the Old City and lack of
adequate shelter. However, the Latin Patriarchate said
the Church of the Holy Sepulchre has been hosting Masses that aren't open to the
public since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, and it was unclear why Sunday’s Mass
and access by the two priests was any different. “It’s
a very, very sacred day for Christians and in our opinion there was no
justification for such a decision or such an action,” said Farid Jubran, the
spokesperson for the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem. Jubran said that the
church had requested permission from the police for a few religious leaders to
enter the church for a private Mass on Sunday — not one that was open to the
public. The Patriarchate said that the decision impeded freedom of worship and
the status quo in Jerusalem. The traditional Palm
Sunday procession normally sees tens of thousands of Christians from around the
world walk from the Mount of Olives down the narrow, hilly streets toward the
Old City, waving palm fronds and singing. The Patriarchate canceled the
traditional processional last week because of safety concerns, and has held
Masses limited to fewer than 50 worshippers in compliance with the Israeli
military’s guidelines for civilians. Pizzaballa celebrated Mass in the nearby
St. Savior’s Monastery, a soaring marble church which is located next to an
underground music school that the Israeli military has deemed a safe shelter
space. Later on Sunday, Pizzaballa held a prayer for peace at the Dominus Flevit
Shrine on the Mount of Olives, but kept his homily concentrated on Jesus and
didn't mention the morning’s incident.
Pope Leo XIV, at the end of Palm Sunday Mass in St. Peter’s Square, prayed for
all Christians in the Middle East who he said were living through an “atrocious”
conflict. He said that “in many cases, they cannot live fully the rites of these
holy days,” though he didn’t elaborate.
The Vatican spokesman didn’t immediately respond when asked to comment on the
Jerusalem incident. Italy formally protested the incident to Israeli
authorities. Premier Giorgia Meloni said that the police action “constitutes an
offense not only against believers but against every community that recognizes
religious freedom.”“The Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem is a sacred
site of Christianity, and as such must be preserved and protected for the
celebration of sacred rites,” Meloni said. “Preventing the Patriarch of
Jerusalem and the Custos of the Holy Land from entering, especially on a
solemnity central to the faith such as Palm Sunday, constitutes an offense not
only against believers but against every community that recognizes religious
freedom.”Meloni’s conservative government tried to keep a balanced position with
Israel during the war in Gaza, supporting Israel’s right to defense but
condemning the toll on Palestinians. The Italian leader has also said that Italy
won't participate in the Iran war, while affirming that Tehran can't be allowed
to possess nuclear weapons. Foreign Minister Antonio
Tajani instructed Italy’s ambassador to Israel to convey the protest “and to
reaffirm Italy’s commitment to protecting religious freedom at all times and
under all circumstances.”In addition, Tajani summoned the Israeli ambassador to
Italy for talks on Monday at the Italian Foreign Ministry to seek clarification
about the decision. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday
evening that there was no “malicious intent” and that the cardinal was prevented
from accessing the church because of safety concerns, but that Israel would try
to partially open the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in the coming days. “Given
the holiness of the week leading up to Easter for the world’s Christians,
Israel’s security arms are putting together a plan to enable church leaders to
worship at the holy site in the coming days,” Netanyahu wrote on X. The Western
Wall, the holiest site where Jews can pray, is also mostly closed because of
safety issues, but authorities are letting up to 50 people at a time pray in an
enclosed area adjacent to the plaza. Smaller churches, synagogues, and mosques
are open in Jerusalem’s Old City if they are located within a certain distance
of a bomb shelter deemed acceptable by Israel’s military and, if gatherings are
kept under 50 people.
US Condemns Attack on Home of the Leader of Autonomous
Iraqi Kurdistan
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The United States on Saturday condemned a drone attack on a residence of the
leader of autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, Nechirvan Barzani, blaming Iranian militia
proxies in Iraq. "These actions by Iran and its
proxies are a direct assault on Iraq's sovereignty, stability, and unity," a
statement from State Department deputy spokesman Tommy Pigott said.
"We categorically reject the indiscriminate and cowardly
terrorist acts that Iran and its terrorist proxies have unleashed in the Iraqi
Kurdistan Region and throughout Iraq," he added. The Iraqi government has
promised to investigate Saturday's drone attack that targeted Barzani's second
home. French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke with Barzani, on Saturday
called the attack "unacceptable" and described the rise in attacks on Iraqi
institutions as "worrying." Since the launch of the
US-Israeli offensive against Iran on February 28, Iraq has been drawn into a
regional conflict it has sought to avoid. Pro-Iranian groups in Iraq claim
responsibility on a daily basis for drone attacks and rocket strikes targeting
the US military presence, both within Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.
These attacks have targeted the US Embassy in Baghdad and personnel for an
international anti-extremist coalition deployed in Iraq.
France
Condemns Houthis for Entering Middle East War
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
France condemned on Sunday two attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants on Israeli
targets, accusing them of escalating tension in the Middle East by entering the
regional war. A Houthi spokesman said on Saturday the Iranian-backed group had
fired missiles and drones towards "several vital and military sites" in Israel,
the same day that Israel said it had intensified attacks on Iran's military
industry. The escalation came after more than a month of Israeli and US
bombardment of Iran, to which Iran has responded by attacking US-linked
interests in wealthy Gulf states. "The Houthis should abstain from all attacks,"
French foreign ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreux said. He accused them of
being "irresponsible".He said everything should be done "to avoid an even
greater escalation of the conflict", which has killed thousands across the
region and sent energy markets into a tailspin. The war has disrupted global
maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway in the Gulf
through which a fifth of the world's crude supplies pass, along with substantial
shipments of gas and fertilizers.The only alternative routes are to sail through
the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian peninsula or make the much
lengthier journey around the tip of southern Africa. From Yemen, the Houthis
could potentially disrupt shipping through the Red Sea, as they did at the
height of Israel's war on Gaza.The European Union said on March 16 it would not
extend the bloc's existing naval mission in the Red Sea to help re-open the
Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump had lashed out at EU and NATO
countries for not agreeing to escort ships through the strait.
Iran 30
Days into Internet Blackout, Isolating Millions Amid War
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
Iran's nationwide internet blackout was on its 30th consecutive day Sunday,
leaving millions cut off from information and communication since the war with
the United States and Israel erupted. "Iran's internet blackout has now entered
day 30 as the nationwide censorship measure continues into its fifth week after
696 hours," internet monitoring group NetBlocks said on X on Sunday. While the
domestic intranet remains operational -- supporting local messaging apps,
banking platforms and other services -- access to the global internet has been
severely restricted. Many Iranians have been left with little choice but to rely
on state-controlled platforms and costly alternatives to stay in touch with
loved ones. Maryam, a 33-year-old private sector employee, said the first weeks
of the shutdown were especially difficult. "It was very hard at the beginning of
the war. I had no connection with my family in another city except phone calls,"
she said. "Now we use an Iranian messaging app and can make video calls. It's
not great, but we are managing in these terrible times."AFP journalists in Paris
have been able to contact residents in Iran primarily via WhatsApp or Telegram
during short bursts of connectivity, through virtual private networks. For many,
particularly those with loved ones outside Iran, communication has become both
limited and expensive. Milad, a 27-year-old clothes salesman, said he has
struggled to stay in touch with relatives abroad. "My family lives in Türkiye,
and I have no way of communicating with them online," he said. "I have to make
direct phone calls, which are very expensive, so I rarely hear from them."
Restrictions have also narrowed access to information, with users largely
confined to domestic platforms and local media, offering only a partial picture
of events. Iran has previously imposed internet
blackouts during periods of unrest, including for several weeks during
nationwide protests in January and during a 12-day war with Israel in June.
Following the January unrest, access had partially resumed, though it remained
heavily filtered and restricted, before being largely cut off again after the
outbreak of the current war on February 28. Some users have managed limited
workarounds, though connectivity remains highly unstable. Hanieh, a 31-year-old
ceramist in Tehran, said she regained partial access after nearly two weeks. "I
managed to find a workaround with so much difficulty," she said, adding that the
connection remained unreliable.
Questions Over Israel’s Interceptor Stockpiles as Middle East War Drags on
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
The ability of Israel's highly sophisticated air defenses to keep intercepting
Iranian attacks is coming under scrutiny as the Middle East war drags on into a
second month. The military has dismissed reports that
it is running low on the interceptors used to shoot down the steady stream of
Iranian missiles and Hezbollah rockets fired at Israel.
However, some analysts suggest that the war against Iran has
significantly drained allied resources, with long-range interceptors among the
most severely depleted, reported AFP. Israel has a multi-layered air defense
array, with a variety of systems intercepting threats at different altitudes.
The top tier consists of the anti-ballistic missile Arrow systems, with Arrow 2
operating both within the Earth's atmosphere and in space and Arrow 3
intercepting above the Earth's atmosphere. Below that
sits David's Sling, which was created to target medium-range threats including
drones, shorter-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Israel's famed
Iron Dome system is the third tier and was originally designed to intercept
short-range rockets and artillery shells. US systems also complement Israel's
air defenses with some THAAD anti-missile batteries reportedly in Israel. "There
is no area in Israel that is not under multi-layer defense," said reservist
Brigadier General Pini Yungman, who played a key role in developing the
country's air defenses and is now president of defense company TSG. But "there
is no 100 percent in defense," he told AFP."To get the 92 percent that we are
getting all together with all the systems, it's outstanding".The Israeli
military, which reveals few details about its air defenses, says Iran has
launched more than 400 ballistic missiles since the start of the war on February
28 -- sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel
Nadav Shoshani recently lauded the interception rate as "exceeding
expectations".Most damage in Israel has been caused by falling debris, but among
the 19 civilians killed in the country since the start of the war, more than
half died when Iranian missiles broke through.
Nearing exhaustion' -
Around two weeks after the war began, news outlet Semafor first reported that
Israel was "running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors", citing
unnamed US officials. An Israeli military source at the time denied the reports,
saying there was no shortage "as of now" and that the military was "prepared for
prolonged combat". But analysis published by the London-based RUSI defense think
tank on Tuesday indicates that the US, Israel and regional allies have burned
through vast quantities of missiles and interceptors since the end of February.
Researchers estimated that in the first 16 days of conflict, allied forces
expended 11,294 munitions costing roughly $26 billion. Stockpiles of long-range
interceptors and precision mnition in particular, it said, were "nearing
exhaustion". "This basically means that if the war continues, coalition aircraft
have to fly deeper into Iranian airspace -- and on the defensive side it means
absorbing more Iranian missiles and drones," one of the co-authors, US Air Force
Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek, told AFP. Long and costly production
timelines make the depletion of high-end interceptors, like Israel's Arrows,
particularly critical. Each Arrow 2 interceptor costs an estimated $1.5 million,
with Arrow 3s around $2 million."The bottleneck isn't just money. It's
industrial physics," Matisek said, pointing to issues including capacity
constraints at the supplier level. These are "production lines that don't scale
like an iPhone factory," he said. These are munitions "you save for the worst
threats" he said, and the supply "is never going to be huge".The RUSI analysis
estimated that 81.33 percent of Israel's pre-war Arrow interceptor stocks had
already been depleted, and that they would likely "be completely expended by the
end of March".
Accelerated production -
Yungman insisted that, taking into account all its air defense systems, Israel
could produce interceptors faster than Iran could produce ballistic missiles. He
added that Israel accelerated its interceptor production after Hamas's October
7, 2023, attack and upgraded its systems to deal with ballistic missiles.
The military confirmed on Monday that it was a malfunction in David's Sling that
had allowed Iranian ballistic missiles to strike the southern towns of Dimona
and Arad last week.Dimona is widely believed to hold Israel's undeclared nuclear
arsenal. Israeli financial newspaper Calcalist reported that the military had
chosen to use David's Sling in a bid to preserve Arrow interceptor stocks. Faced
with the challenges posed by Iranian missiles, Israel has three options to
conserve interceptor stocks, Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior researcher at the Middle
East Institute of the National University of Singapore, told AFP. "Mixing the
different missile systems in order to avoid massive shortages; not intercepting
missiles or drones if they land in unpopulated areas; and increasing the
pressure on the offensive campaign, hoping that they are able to degrade Iran's
capabilities before the Israeli amilitary’s air defense resources run out".
News of
the ongoing war between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other. The
news is abundant, fragmented, and difficult to keep track of as it evolves
constantly. For those wishing to follow the course of the war, the following are
links to several television channels and newspapers:
Asharq Al-Awsat Newspaper
https://aawsat.com/
National News Agency
https://www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar
Al Arabiya/Arabic
https://www.alarabiya.net/
Sky News
https://www.youtube.com/@SkyNewsArabia
Nidaa Al Watan
https://www.nidaalwatan.com/
Al Markazia
https://www.nidaalwatan.com/
Al Hadath
https://www.youtube.com/@AlHadath
Independent Arabia
https://www.independentarabia.com/
The Latest
LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March
29-30/2026
The War on Civilization: 'Israel Cannot Outsource Its Survival'...A
Conversation with Pierre Rehov
Grégoire Canlorbe/ Gatestone
Institute/March 29, 2026
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22392/war-on-civilization
"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is
only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our
Arab unity. In reality, today there is no difference between Jordanians,
Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do
we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national
interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to
oppose Zionism." — Zoheir Mohsen, late PLO senior official, Trouw, March 31,
1977.
Hamas did not attack military targets to "end an occupation." It attacked
families to affirm an old doctrine: the Jew is not an opponent; the Jew is a
problem to be erased.
If you want to understand October 7, forget the comforting story of "desperation
turning violent." Pogroms are not born from desperation; they are born from
permission — social, religious, political permission to commit the unthinkable
and feel righteous doing it.
In the Battle of Jenin, there was never any "confusion in the fog of war." The
story that part of a hospital had been destroyed was a total fabrication. It
revealed something essential: a good story has priority over reality.
The genius of the system is psychological. Once the image circulates, correction
becomes irrelevant. The emotional verdict has already been delivered.
In modern warfare, the camera is no longer documenting the battle. It is part of
the battlefield. The objective is not only to accuse Israel. It is to morally
disarm the West. If you can persuade democratic societies that defending
themselves equals murdering children, you have already won half the war.
They hate Israel for what it is: an infidel state – and in their midst. If
Israel were a Christian state, the same problem would exist. Just look at the
genocide in Nigeria – with more than 52,000 Christians killed in just 14 years –
in a free society, which is a visible rejection of the Islamic totalitarian
dream.
The Palestinian project is not a "two-state solution" or "a better border." The
project is a world where religious and political absolutism rules, where
minorities submit or vanish, where women are controlled, where dissent is
crushed. Israel is the laboratory target. If the West rewards October 7 with
political gains, it teaches a lesson to every violent movement on earth:
massacre pays. So yes — Israel is defending itself, and in doing so, it is also
defending the principle that civilization cannot survive if it negotiates with
barbarity as if it were a partner who is misunderstood.
"In March 1978 I secretly brought Arafat to Bucharest for final instructions on
how to behave in Washington. "You simply have to keep on pretending that you'll
break with terrorism and that you'll recognize Israel -- over, and over, and
over...." — Ion Mihai Pacepa, a lieutenant general in the Socialist Republic of
Romania's Securitate, the secret police, who defected to the West in 1978, Wall
Street Journal, September 22, 2003.
If a deal buys time for the "wrong" side, it is not a deal — it is an extension
of the threat.
The point is that Israel cannot outsource its survival, and the United States
cannot pretend that totalitarian jihadism can be "managed" indefinitely. Either
you dismantle the infrastructure of terror, or it regrows.... Israel's
enemies... are imposing a war on civilization.
Peace that is built on amnesia is not peace; it is a pause before the next war.
The West will not be defeated by lack of power. It will be defeated — if it is
defeated — by the refusal to oppose danger when they see it.
Pierre Rehov is a French documentary filmmaker, director, and novelist. He is
known for his movies about the Arab-Israeli conflict and Israeli–Palestinian
conflict, its treatment in the media, and about terrorism.
Grégoire Canlorbe: Are Iran's and Hamas's October 7, 2023 jihadi attacks on
Israel responses to what they claim, that Israel is on their land?
Pierre Rehov: Jews have lived on that land for nearly 4,000 years. Palestinians,
by contrast, contrary to myth, actually do not exist. As the late PLO senior
official Zoheir Mohsen openly stated in an interview with the Dutch daily Trouw
on March 31, 1977:
"The Palestinian people does not exist. The creation of a Palestinian state is
only a means for continuing our struggle against the state of Israel for our
Arab unity. In reality, today there is no difference between Jordanians,
Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Only for political and tactical reasons do
we speak today about the existence of a Palestinian people, since Arab national
interests demand that we posit the existence of a distinct Palestinian people to
oppose Zionism."
In modern times, the Palestinians are really just assorted Arabs who happened to
be in Israel in 1948. They chose to leave after five Arab armies invaded the new
nation on the day of its birth, either to avoid being in the middle of a war, or
often at the urging of their fellow Arabs, who told them to get out of the way
to make it easier to kill the Jews. When these often self-exiled Arabs tried to
return to Israel after the Arabs lost the war -- an event in Arabic called the
nakba, the catastrophe – Israel refused to admit them based on their earlier
disloyalty. Arabs who did not leave Israel now make up just over 20% of Israel's
population of nearly 10 million, are called Israeli Arabs, and have equal rights
with the Jews, except for not being required to serve in the Israeli army unless
they so choose.
After losing the war, to pressure Israel, Arab countries refused to admit their
approximately roughly 700,000 Arab brethren as well, even though Israel, the
size of New Jersey, made room for a commensurate number of Jews who had fled
Arab countries.
In short, the Palestinian attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023 were not "in
retaliation" for anything. In fact, they had just pledged a ceasefire with
Israel, and Israel had recently issued 27,000 new daily work permits to enable
Gazans to enter Israel, where they could earn a better wage. October 7 was not a
"reaction." It was just the latest episode in a multi-millenary history of
attacks on Jews. It was a declaration of intent, of ideology, and of a
civilizational fault line that many in the West have spent decades refusing to
see.
A pogrom or a jihad is not defined by a map; it is defined by a mindset: the
idea that Jews may be hunted as such—women, children, the elderly—because their
very existence is deemed illegitimate. That is why I titled my 2025 film
Pogrom(s). Hamas did not attack military targets to "end an occupation." It
attacked families to affirm an old doctrine: the Jew is not an opponent; the Jew
is a problem to be erased.
If you want to understand October 7, forget the comforting story of "desperation
turning violent." Pogroms are not born from desperation; they are born from
permission — social, religious, political permission to commit the unthinkable
and feel righteous doing it.
What happened that day also exposed the West's moral confusion. Many people
looked at videos of barbarity and still rushed to "contextualize," rationalize,
excuse. This reflex is precisely what keeps pogroms returning throughout
history: the world's temptation to treat Jewish blood as a negotiable detail in
a political narrative.
Canlorbe: How do you relate the birth and development of the anti-Israel movie
industry, especially after the film Exodus portrayed Israelis as heroic?
Rehov: It may have started after the alleged death of a young Arab boy, Muhammad
al-Durrah, in 2000. Israel was accused of shooting him to death even though in
film clips there was no blood to be seen, and after his supposed death, he can
be seen lifting a hand to look out from under it. The episode became a turning
point. The images, broadcast worldwide, showed a child allegedly shot
deliberately by Israeli soldiers. The narrative was immediate, emotional,
definitive. Israel was guilty. End of story.
The case was never as clear as presented. Serious doubts emerged about the
staging, the angles of fire, the editing, the absence of forensic transparency.
Whether one believes the child was killed in crossfire or not, what mattered is
that the footage became a weapon before it became a fact.
More importantly, it revived something ancient: the blood libel — the accusation
that Jews murder children. This medieval myth, responsible for countless
pogroms, was simply updated for the satellite era.
The term "Pallywood" – anti-Israel films, frequently built on falsehoods, and
masquerading as pro-Palestinian -- is not about denying suffering. It is about
exposing the systematic staging, scripting, and amplification of imagery
designed to fit a predetermined accusation.
You could see this machinery yourself in any investigation of the Battle of
Jenin in 2002. At the time, international headlines were speaking of a
"massacre." Hundreds killed. Entire neighborhoods razed. The emotional narrative
was already fixed.
There, I encountered individuals presenting themselves as medical authorities
and witnesses. One of them, Dr. Abu Raley, claimed that the Israeli army had
destroyed a building belonging to his hospital. He described it in dramatic
detail. The story was powerful. It was ready for cameras.
There was only one problem: the building was intact. Standing. Undamaged. The
alleged ruin simply did not exist.
In the Battle of Jenin, there was never any "confusion in the fog of war." The
story that part of a hospital had been destroyed was a total fabrication. It
revealed something essential: a good story has priority over reality.
Anti-Israel films are a method: a communication strategy in which scenes are
rehearsed, ambulances are summoned for choreography, children are positioned for
optimum publicity, and Western journalists — sometimes naive, sometimes
ideologically predisposed — broadcast it without verification.
The genius of the system is psychological. Once the image circulates, correction
becomes irrelevant. The emotional verdict has already been delivered.
In modern warfare, the camera is no longer documenting the battle. It is part of
the battlefield. The objective is not only to accuse Israel. It is to morally
disarm the West. If you can persuade democratic societies that defending
themselves equals murdering children, you have already won half the war.
Canlorbe: Are the Israelis fighting only for themselves? What are they really
fighting for besides? For the whole of Western civilization?
Rehov: Israel is fighting — obviously — for its survival, but not only that.
Israel is fighting to preserve Western civilization, and at a frontier the West
prefers not to name: Islamic extremism and its call for global political
control. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and the Iranian regime do not hate
Israel for what it does. They hate Israel for what it is: an infidel state – and
in their midst. If Israel were a Christian state, the same problem would exist.
Just look at the genocide in Nigeria – with more than 52,000 Christians killed
in just 14 years – in a free society, which is a visible rejection of the
Islamic totalitarian dream.
The Palestinian project is not a "two-state solution" or "a better border." The
project is a world where religious and political absolutism rules, where
minorities submit or vanish, where women are controlled, where dissent is
crushed. Israel is the laboratory target. If the West rewards October 7 with
political gains, it teaches a lesson to every violent movement on earth:
massacre pays. So yes — Israel is defending itself, and in doing so, it is also
defending the principle that civilization cannot survive if it negotiates with
barbarity as if it were a partner who is misunderstood.
Canlorbe: You mention the Nazi and Soviet origins of modern political Islam and
of the so-called Palestinian cause. Please, what do you mean?
Rehov: Let's be precise: Political Islam was not "created" by Nazis or Soviets.
It has its own religious roots. Modern jihadist politics borrowed heavily from
20th-century totalitarian toolkits — Nazi and Soviet alike: mass indoctrination,
the cult of death, scapegoating, manipulating crowds through grievance and myth.
Historically, there has also been direct contact and ideological
cross-pollination. The Mufti of Jerusalem, Haj Amin al-Husseini, collaborated
with Nazi Germany. He met with Hitler in 1941 — an emblematic moment showing
that radical anti-Jewish mobilization in the region was not only "local," but
plugged into Europe's genocidal imagination.
As for the "Palestinian cause" as a modern political brand, the Soviet model of
the USSR perfected exporting "liberation" narratives, packaging conflicts into
revolutionary frames, and the use of proxy groups for strategic warfare. When
Russia's leaders saw that Israel had no interest in adopting its brand of
socialism or communism, it seems to have turned its attention to supporting
Israel's opponents. PLO and Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat first,
and later the Palestinian Authority's current President Mahmoud Abbas -- now in
the 21st year of his four-year term -- were groomed in Moscow by the KGB and its
satellites. A lieutenant general in the Socialist Republic of Romania's
Securitate, the secret police, Ion Mihai Pacepa, who defected to the West in
1978, wrote:
"In March 1978 I secretly brought Arafat to Bucharest for final instructions on
how to behave in Washington. "You simply have to keep on pretending that you'll
break with terrorism and that you'll recognize Israel -- over, and over, and
over," Ceausescu told him for the umpteenth time. Ceauşescu was euphoric over
the prospect that both Arafat and he might be able to snag a Nobel Peace Prize
with their fake displays of the olive branch."
Whether through training, arms flows, or propaganda doctrine, the Cold War era
shaped a whole ecosystem in which anti-Western agitation could be sold as
virtue. The result is what we see today: a hybrid ideology — religious
absolutism wearing the clothes of revolutionary victimhood — distributed to
Western audiences through media and academia.
Canlorbe: What are your findings on "esoteric," or religious, Nazism?
Rehov: Nazism was not merely political; it aspired to be metaphysical. It tried
to replace Judaism and Christianity with a racial religion — an occultized
worldview in which blood becomes sacred, cruelty becomes purification, and
conquest becomes destiny. The religious flavor of Nazism served two functions:
it offered a mythic justification for domination, and it insulated followers
from moral reality. When you turn history into myth, you no longer need ethics —
you only need obedience to the "mission."
While I was writing The Third Testament, a novel published in English, it became
clear that Hitler regularly consulted mediums. Even more striking was Heinrich
Himmler's obsession with magic, witches and demons. Recently, his personal
library was found in a warehouse near Prague. It contained more than 6,000
esoteric works, including rare volumes on witchcraft. The initiation ritual
required to become a member of the SS drew directly from these occult beliefs.
Many Nazi symbols — the SS runes, the Nazi salute, the swastika — were rooted in
"esoteric" symbolism. This dimension of Nazism is often minimized, yet it
reveals that the regime did not see itself merely as a political movement, but
as a quasi-religious order claiming spiritual legitimacy for its crimes.
That is why the Nazi project felt to many like a perverse religion or spiritual
movement: it provided meaning, ritual, identity, and a transcendent excuse for
the worst crimes.
Canlorbe: How does that "religion" thought, which led to Nazism, differ from
other religions' thought, such as Judeo-Christian?
Rehov: The difference is enormous, of course. Nazi "religiosity" basically
promotes anti-ethics that masquerade as transcendence. It is essentially racial
pagan mysticism that glorifies force, status and "purity." It dissolves the
individual into the tribe and turns the "other" into a dangerous contaminant.
Judeo-Christian spiritual traditions — even when they explore mysteries, symbols
and initiations — remain anchored in the dignity of the individual person, moral
responsibility, and the idea that facts are inseparable from conscience.
Christian thinkers are usually not about exterminating imperfection; they are
about elevating the human being — fallible, free and accountable. In the Nazi
vision and in many Middle Eastern interpretations of religion, it exists to
justify domination. In the Judeo-Christian vision, religion exists to deepen
humility and love.
Canlorbe: How do you assess the Arab policy of the French Republic?
Rehov: France's Arab policy under the Fifth Republic has seemed to oscillate
between grandeur and blindness. From President Charles de Gaulle onward, there
was a strategic aim: to cultivate oil as energy and diplomatic leverage, to
secure influence in the Arab world, which during the 1975 "oil crisis" looked as
if it had most of the world's oil, and to position France as a mediator distinct
from Washington. Too often, however, this stance became a reflex of moral
equivalence — treating democracies and terror movements as two symmetrical
parties in a "conflict," rather than distinguishing defense from aggression.
The culmination is the contemporary temptation to adopt diplomatic gestures that
may flatter French self-image but can also reward intransigence, disinformation
and terrorism. France's announcement that it recognized a non-existent
Palestinian state in July 2025 is a prime example: a move presented as "peace"
that instead rewards terror and confirms that "terrorism works, so let's keep on
doing it!" — thereby encouraging actors who see concessions as weakness and what
they are doing as delivering success. It reinforces the sales pitch that jihad
and terrorism are the fastest ways to get what you want. France could have been
a voice for realism and the values of civilization. Instead, it keeps choosing
the comfort of theatrical posing
Canlorbe: Trump's foreign policy is centered on dealmaking and pointed,
short-run military intervention. Do you fear that those factors may prevent the
US and Israel from settling, for good, the Hamas or Iranian regime issues?
Rehov: I do not fear "dealmaking" as such. I fear deals that confuse calm with
peace. If a deal buys time for the "wrong" side, it is not a deal — it is an
extension of the threat. Hamas and the Iranian regime have proven that they
interpret restraint as opportunity. So, the question is not whether America
prefers short operations or long wars. The question is whether America draws
lines that are credible, and whether it enforces them. As for domestic political
constraints, every administration has them. The point is that Israel cannot
outsource its survival, and the United States cannot pretend that totalitarian
jihadism can be "managed" indefinitely. Either you dismantle the infrastructure
of terror, or it regrows.
Yes, Vice President JD Vance represents a strand of American skepticism toward
foreign entanglements. That is a legitimate debate. Israel's enemies, however,
are not about "entanglements." They are imposing a war on civilization.
Canlorbe: If a diplomatic solution were to be found to the Ukrainian issue,
would it be beneficial to the West?
Rehov: Diplomacy is beneficial only if it restores deterrence. A settlement that
rewards aggression teaches the world that borders are temporary and violence is
profitable. Such a lesson would not stay in Eastern Europe; it would travel —
into the Middle East, into Asia, into every contested frontier. So yes, a
diplomatic outcome can be good — if it protects sovereignty, if it prevents
repetition, and if it signals strength rather than fatigue. Peace that is built
on amnesia is not peace; it is a pause before the next war.
We are living through a war of reality. Weapons kill bodies. Propaganda kills
judgment. When judgment collapses, democracies begin to hate themselves, to
doubt their right to defend their citizens, and to romanticize forces that would
destroy them.
My work is not about "taking sides" in a political quarrel. It is about refusing
the lie — because when the lie wins, the innocent pay, and history repeats its
darkest chapters with updated slogans.
The West will not be defeated by lack of power. It will be defeated — if it is
defeated — by the refusal to oppose danger when they see it.
© 2026 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
On War and the Notions It Demands
Fahid Suleiman al-Shoqiran/Asharq
Al-Awsat/March 29/2026
This phase must be understood as temporary. It is bound to end, whether through
more use of force or the other party coming to accept the need to negotiate. As
for narratives of unrest and crisis, they are amplified by hostile actors that
support this immoral, and indeed brutal, assault.
The Gulf states have demonstrated that they can manage war at all levels,
reflecting a capacity to apply the philosopher Edgar Morin’s concept of "crisis
management."
Humanity has learned that the question of "crisis" resurfaces with every
challenge that demands a balance of strength, rationality, and decisiveness.
It is easy for an enemy to create crises, and the real challenge is managing
them. That is precisely what the Gulf states are doing, through firm, rational,
and pragmatic diplomacy at every level.
Time and again, creating crises has led those behind them to their destruction.
This is the path Iran is now taking by turning its missiles and military
capabilities against states seeking development, peace, and social vitality.
The dynamic, developmental Gulf states understand that no crisis can be managed
successfully without containing the sentimental charge and slogans that surround
such events. Rather, sober, clear-sighted leadership is needed. That is the
approach of the Gulf states. Calm calculation in the face of turbulent events
and suffocating crises to facilitate solutions. Failing to do so only fuels
further escalation, which is precisely what hostile powers and gloating enemies
seek.
Returning to Edgar Morin, his book "On the Concept of Crisis" unpacks the term
and traces its evolution and transformations. A crisis is not necessarily
evolutionary: one must grasp the existing situation, though a crisis has the
potential to evolve and can lead to transformation at its emergence.
To understand this, we must abandon the idea that evolution is a continuous
process. Every development arises from events or incidents - disruptions that
generate deviations, that, in turn, become tension trajectories within a system
and lead to disorganization or reorganization of varying depth and intensity.
Crisis is a field of evolution; it is a kind of laboratory for studying
evolutionary processes. We live in societies of constant, rapid evolution.
However, he adds that we can distinguish between the two concepts, because a
crisis is not continuous; it is time-limited with a "before and after." A
crisis, in the strict sense, is always defined in relation to periods of
relative stability; otherwise, the idea of crisis dissolves and becomes
synonymous with evolution.
This conception of crisis can be broadened to encompass not only wartime crises
- the most extreme form - but also the intellectual, economic, and social
complications that accompany them, which Morin addresses in different chapters.
With every new event, we are confronted by two dilemmas:
The first is the moral frame we give the crisis, as we have seen in the
not-so-distant past. The second is how to frame the post-war phase. We cannot
deny that the effects of the Gulf War persist to this day: economically,
intellectually, and socially. Crisis management cannot succeed without
containing emotionally charged nationalist thinking and obsolete rhetoric.
In sum, the will to power is the foundation of security. The Gulf states have
played a strong role in deterring aggression. The key difference between
yesterday and today is the emergence of a need for academics, intellectuals, and
educators to sharpen our discourse around the dangers of alarmist narratives
that undermine state security circulating on social media and other platforms.
This is a moral duty. It is necessary for overcoming crises and grasping what
"war" means.
Iraq and the Loyalist Militias
Mishary Dhayidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/March
29/2026
Among the many "blessings" Iran has bestowed on Iraq is the empowerment of armed
"loyalist" militias in the Land of the Two Rivers, along with the "invention" of
what is known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Over time, this entity
has steadily encroached on the state and come to dominate it, while politicians
have been effectively coerced into incorporating these militias- whose loyalty
lies with Iran before Iraq- into the very structure of the state. These militias
have never concealed their full alignment with Iran’s revolutionary regime.
Some, such as the Badr Organization, were in fact born, raised, and shaped
within the cradle of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as far back as the early
1980s. Today, these militias are no longer merely a scourge for ordinary Iraqis,
obstructing the emergence of a genuine state, entrenching sectarian strife, and
driving financial and administrative corruption, they have also become a direct
source of external danger to Iraq. One manifestation of the ongoing conflict-
on, from, and within Iran- is the activation of PMF factions as part of Iran’s
operational strategy against Iraq’s neighbors. Most recently, Jordanian
government spokesperson and minister Mohammad Momani revealed that Iran-aligned
militias are using Iraqi territory to launch attacks against Jordan and other
neighboring states.The Iraqi government- at best - appears overpowered, much
like its Lebanese counterpart.
What, then, are we to make of statements by Iraqi officials such as Hussein
Allawi, adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, who said in an
interview with Al-Arabiya that they are “committed to not allowing any armed
group to target countries in the region”? Yet rockets and drones continue to be
launched from Iraqi soil toward Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and beyond. A
collective position is gradually taking shape among Iraq’s Arab neighbors in
response to this hostile reality. This is reflected in the joint statement
issued by six countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and
Jordan, calling on Iraq to halt this aggression “immediately, in order to
preserve fraternal relations and avoid further escalation.”It is well known that
there are Iraqi groups and leaders whose allegiance, in both practice and
inclination, lies with Iran.
Peace be upon Iraq.
The gift that will not keep on giving
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya
English/29 March/2026
The “deal-maker” concluded last week a striking arrangement with Iran’s ruling
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, receiving what was described as a “gift”: the
IRGC’s facilitation of the passage of 10 major oil tankers through the Strait of
Hormuz.
The deal-maker took little issue with the dangerous precedent being set—namely,
granting the IRGC de facto authority over the passage or obstruction of shipping
in an international waterway. Instead, he introduced a novel gesture: rewarding
Iranian “generosity” by granting Iran ten days to accept his diplomatic
proposals, otherwise he would proceed with his threat to strike energy
facilities across the country. A gesture in exchange for a gesture, in the era
of the deal-maker President Donald Trump, and amid the diplomatic choreography
of his special envoy Steve Witkoff, tasked with negotiating with unidentified
Iranians—reportedly the “new Iranians” within the Islamic Republic’s system.
Witkoff’s 15-point framework for negotiations with the IRGC may yet produce a
surprise agreement, particularly as it reportedly includes the Trump
administration’s willingness to offer significant concessions to Tehran’s power
centers in the form of sanctions relief and the lifting of the snapback
mechanism, alongside understandings on ballistic missiles and a softening of
demands related to regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Yet all of this may ultimately prove to be nothing more than a trap set by the
IRGC, which publicly rejects the very premise and details of the negotiations,
thereby creating for itself a final diplomatic window to justify a decisive
military strike.
It remains unclear who is outmaneuvering whom. Nor is there clarity regarding
the military balance at this turning point of reverse escalation—either toward a
deal or toward military resolution. Trump has stated that he is not desperate to
reach a political agreement with Iran, declaring in effect: “I do not care.”
Meanwhile, Tehran’s power centers continue their habitual defiance, boasting of
their missile capabilities directed not only at Israel but also at neighboring
Arab Gulf states. They violate the sovereignty of Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen,
turning these countries into forward shields for the Islamic Republic in its
confrontation with Israel. This is an existential war for both sides. Each is
driven by an extreme ideological doctrine—religious and, in Israel’s case,
rooted in its own theological-nationalist narrative—and both now use Lebanon as
a shield against the other. Iran has gone so far in its blatant disregard for
Lebanese sovereignty as to impose its preferred candidate for an ambassador
rejected by the Lebanese state, while also placing its war with Israel on the
negotiating table of US-Iran talks. Thus, Tehran’s representatives boast of
adding insult to deep injury. Israel, for its part, has been handed what it
considers a gift: IRGC and Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanese territory,
enabling expansionist objectives that Israeli hardliners do not conceal—namely,
the “cleansing” of southern Lebanon of its population, not only of Hezbollah and
IRGC presence, in order to expand occupation and impose de facto borders along
the Litani River.
What is most troubling in the Trump administration’s approach to potential deals
with the IRGC is the extent to which it appears detached from the realities
unfolding in Lebanon at the hands of both Iran and Israel. The essence of the
emerging American position appears to be the outsourcing of Lebanon to Israel to
deal with Hezbollah. The Trump administration is rightly angered by the Lebanese
government’s performance, but this does not absolve the White House of
responsibility to restrain Israel from renewed occupation plans in Lebanese
territory. Moreover, it is the responsibility of the administration to place
direct Iranian military intervention in Lebanon squarely on the negotiation
table with seriousness and insistence, not through Iranian-defined frameworks.
It is not sufficient for one of Witkoff’s 15 points to merely call for Iran to
cease supplying weapons and financial support to its proxy militias.
President Trump must insist that the complete dismantlement of this doctrine—and
the mechanisms enforcing it—be a central priority of any negotiation, not a
marginal or superficial appendix, as the financier Steve Witkoff appears to
envision in his highly consequential framework. There is concern over how the
Trump administration will handle the issue of Iran’s so-called proxies and
regional arms. There is fear of delay or hesitation in addressing these
files—particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in
Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. There are growing concerns that US negotiators
may relegate these issues to a secondary track rather than treating them as
parallel to the primary nuclear file. There is also apprehension that ballistic
missile issues and proxy warfare may be postponed until after a nuclear
agreement is reached.
Such sequencing would signal a dangerous repetition of what happened under the
Obama administration, when Iran’s regional behavior was excluded from nuclear
negotiations. This is a critical point. Arab Gulf states are now alert to these
risks and are coordinating closely within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation
Council to present a unified position. Their emphasis is on deterring militias
and missile threats, and safeguarding freedom of navigation—not solely focusing
on the US-Iran nuclear track.
In other words, Arab Gulf states have experienced the consequences of excessive
US focus on the nuclear file at the expense of Iran’s regional behavior and
missile program. They are determined not to repeat the strategic mistakes that
followed the Obama administration’s JCPOA agreement with Iran—an agreement later
dismantled by Donald Trump. Gulf diplomacy is seeking indirect participation in
US-Iran negotiations, whether through Pakistan, which is hosting the talks, or
through high-level diplomatic engagement by GCC foreign ministers with key
figures in the US administration—from Vice President JD Vance to Secretary of
State Marco Rubio to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
These states say they are receiving the “shrapnel” of the American-Israeli
confrontation with Iran, and that they are bearing the brunt of Iranian
retaliation due to their alliance with the United States and the presence of US
bases on their soil. This dimension has become central to the debate over either
military escalation with Iran or negotiated settlement between Washington and
Tehran. In other words, if the Trump administration intends to pursue
deal-making while excluding Gulf states that are directly exposed to Iranian
retaliation, these states will not remain silent. They will revisit their entire
relationship with the United States—not in terms of expelling US forces or
dismantling bases, but in terms of restructuring the security relationship in a
way that reflects their own security priorities, and not through the logic of
retaliation or rupture from shared strategic interests.
Children
pay the highest price in Middle East conflict
Inger Ashing/Arab News/March 29, 2026
I visited Beirut this week, where this war is devastating children and families
yet again, with more than 1 million people forcibly displaced from their homes.
I saw first-hand how schools that were meant for education are becoming shelters
for displaced families, and how playgrounds and sports facilities are turning
into places for storing and distributing humanitarian aid. No child should have
to live through this. Across Lebanon, families fleeing violence arrive carrying
whatever pieces of normal life they could take with them. Children clutch toys,
schoolbags, and sometimes their pets, trying to hold onto small comforts as
their world is suddenly uprooted.
But Lebanon is only one part of a wider tragedy unfolding across the region.
Since Feb. 28, more than 4 million people have been displaced across several
countries affected by this conflict. Hundreds of children have already lost
their lives. In Iran, the country is mourning the deaths of more than 100 girls
killed in a strike on a school in Minab. In Israel, Lebanon, and elsewhere,
families are grieving children who had no role in this war, yet have paid the
ultimate price. The consequences of this conflict will not end when the bombs
stop falling. The damage will last for years.
A 17-year-old boy in Lebanon said: “All we want is to live in safety, not to
live today without knowing whether tomorrow will come for us or not.”
Schools are closed, hospitals struggling to operate.
For millions of children across the region, fear is constant. Schools are
closed, hospitals struggling to operate, and communities that once provided
stability are shattered by displacement and insecurity. But the cost of this war
is not confined to the Middle East. Missile and drone attacks have disrupted
energy and shipping infrastructure across the Gulf, including the Strait of
Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies
pass. Shipping is being rerouted and freight costs are rising sharply. The
result is increasing prices for food, fuel, and transport around the world.
For families already struggling to survive, these rising costs are not an
inconvenience. They are a threat to survival. The world is already facing an
unprecedented hunger crisis. Today, more than half of all children globally
cannot afford a healthy diet. The UN has warned that if the current conflict
continues to destabilize global markets, the number of people facing acute
hunger could rise to 363 million this year — the highest level on record.
Humanitarian organizations are already feeling the impact. Disruption to
shipping routes has delayed lifesaving medical supplies destined for some of the
world’s most fragile areas. Save the Children alone has around $600,000 of
critical medical shipments currently delayed, affecting programs supporting
hundreds of thousands of children in countries such as Sudan, Yemen, and
Afghanistan. World leaders must choose a different path. For children, the cost
of war is paid twice — first in the immediate loss of safety, homes, and
education, and then in the long shadow of destroyed schools, hospitals, and
water systems that will take generations to rebuild. It does not have to be this
way. World leaders must urgently choose a different path. Diplomacy must replace
escalation, and the protection of children must come before military objectives.
All parties to the conflict must comply with international humanitarian law.
Attacks on schools, hospitals, and aid workers must stop, and humanitarian
supplies must be allowed to move freely, including through critical routes such
as the Strait of Hormuz.
Children cannot continue to pay the price for a war they did not create. No
child should grow up displaced from their home, their classroom turned into a
shelter, or their playground into a warehouse for aid. Yet for millions of
children across this region, this is now their daily reality. This war must
stop, and children’s futures must be protected.
• Inger Ashing is CEO of Save the Children.
Iran turning nuclear ambiguity into a wartime weapon
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/March 29, 2026
The world’s most consequential nuclear standoff is being conducted largely in
the dark. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the institution mandated to
prevent nuclear proliferation, has admitted it cannot determine whether Iran’s
new underground enrichment site at Isfahan is an operational facility or an
empty hall. This is the defining condition of the most volatile diplomatic
moment the Middle East has seen in decades.
When Israel launched its first strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure
last June, Iran held 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, a
stockpile sufficient, by IAEA estimates, to produce as many as 10 nuclear
weapons should Tehran choose to weaponize it. The IAEA also tracked a convoy
removing what was believed to be a substantial portion of it from the Fordow
facility shortly before hostilities began. Where it went remains unverified.
The agency has been reduced to monitoring vehicular movements around tunnel
complexes using commercially available satellite imagery. This is the
surveillance architecture of a nonproliferation regime under siege.
Iran’s nuclear opacity and its ambiguity predate the conflict by decades.
Fordow’s existence was only disclosed to the IAEA in September 2009, after
Western intelligence services had already exposed it. Iran had been constructing
the site since 2006 without any declaration to the watchdog. Isfahan is
following the same playbook, with construction taking place first and disclosure
consistently delayed, allowing the uncertainty itself to serve a strategic
purpose.
France, Germany and the UK this month jointly told the IAEA Board of Governors
that the agency had been unable to account for Iran’s uranium stockpile,
including highly enriched uranium equivalent to more than 10 IAEA “significant
quantities,” the threshold used to calculate weapons potential.
Iran, for its part, wrote last month that “in light of prevailing circumstances,
the expectation of the normal implementation of safeguards in Iran is, from
legal, technical, and operational perspectives, untenable.” Tehran is formally
asserting that opacity is not a violation but a legitimate posture, a precedent
with profound consequences for every other state watching how far the
nonproliferation regime can be bent before it breaks. Iran remains the only
state without nuclear weapons to have produced 60 percent highly enriched
uranium at scale.
The less verifiable Iran’s nuclear program is, the greater Tehran’s negotiating
leverage becomes. At the heart of this landscape lies a paradox. The less
verifiable Iran’s nuclear program is, the greater Tehran’s negotiating leverage
becomes. Far from being an obstacle, uncertainty is the very core of Iran’s
strategy.
A clear example of this was seen in February’s Geneva talks. After three rounds
of indirect negotiations, Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al-Busaidi
announced that Iran had agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium, suspend
enrichment for three years and accept long-term restrictions capping purity at
1.5 percent, all subject to international verification. These are concessions of
extraordinary scope, which would have seemed unthinkable during the 2013-2015
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action talks, when Iran rejected even modest
enrichment caps despite being in a comparatively weaker position.
But there is a critical flaw in that Iran offered to relinquish something of
which the current quantity cannot be independently verified. The IAEA is unable
to confirm the precise amount of enriched uranium in Iran’s stockpile, making
any future verification of compliance equally uncertain. This offer, while broad
in scope, is inherently unfalsifiable and that is precisely what makes it
advantageous for Tehran. It projects a message of moderation to Washington and
Brussels while preserving operational ambiguity on the ground. Regional actors,
including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, are also affected. They are not
focused on Iran crossing a nuclear threshold but on the risks of forcing a
definitive outcome. A clear binary, where Iran either openly declares a weapon
or is militarily prevented from doing so, would force every regional power to
take sides, with irreversible consequences. Ambiguity, however, allows space for
hedging.
This dynamic also affects the mediators. Oman and Qatar, once brokers
facilitating backchannel diplomacy, have been compromised by the conflict,
bearing the direct consequences of Iranian retaliation and strikes from the US
and Israel. Turkiye, Egypt and Pakistan have stepped in. However, their goal is
no longer resolution but disaster prevention. The diplomatic horizon has shifted
from solving the nuclear issue to stopping the situation from worsening each
week.
The diplomatic horizon has shifted from solving the nuclear issue to stopping
the situation from worsening. What is eroding in plain sight is the
international nonproliferation architecture, with Iran expertly exploiting every
vulnerability. After the June 2025 war, Tehran suspended all cooperation with
the IAEA, only to agree in Cairo in September to resume inspections, before
halting implementation once again following the reimposition of UN sanctions.
This cycle of partial engagement, provocation and withdrawal is carefully
calibrated to keep the regime technically compliant and ensure it remains beyond
meaningful constraint.
Iran’s formal claim that normal safeguards are untenable under current
conditions poses a significant danger, as other states are closely watching. If
a nation can cite military pressure as grounds for withdrawing from verification
obligations without facing effective consequences, it undermines the entire
treaty system. The IAEA was never designed to rely on satellite imagery alone.
Nuclear ambiguity is, in the short term, stabilizing. No party is likely to
initiate a war over an uncertain stockpile. In the medium term, however, it is
corrosive, preventing the region from building reliable security structures,
poisoning diplomacy by making verification impossible, and gradually normalizing
the idea that a state can remain on the nuclear threshold indefinitely without
any formal accountability.Across the region, governments are recalibrating to
the persistent possibility of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia has
accelerated its civilian nuclear program, Turkiye openly discusses its right to
enrichment and smaller Gulf states are forging new security deals with
Washington. Every neighbor has been forced into a perpetual state of defense,
draining diplomatic energy and military resources against a threat that remains
unconfirmed yet ever-present. For Israel, it creates a constant state of
existential alert that impacts every political decision. For the US, it ties
down more strategic focus on the region. And for Iran’s potential allies, the
uncertainty surrounding Isfahan makes alignment too costly and distance too
risky. The result is not just a more dangerous Middle East but a fundamentally
altered nuclear order. Iran has proven that a state does not need to cross the
nuclear threshold to reshape the strategic landscape around it.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients
between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Religious affairs presidency expands digital outreach
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab NewsMarch 29/2026
With alarming frequency and rather quickly, the border between Israel and
Lebanon can shift from calm to high-intensity conflict. Until the late 1970s,
this frontier remained relatively quiet, despite the fact that the two countries
have technically been in a state of war since the end of the 1948 Arab-Israeli
conflict and have never signed a peace treaty. Early tensions largely took the
form of skirmishes involving Palestinian militants affiliated with various
factions of the Palestine Liberation Organization. However, after the PLO was
forced out of Lebanon in 1982, resistance to Israeli occupation became a
defining pillar of the newly established Lebanese Shiite militant movement,
Hezbollah. This narrative of resistance also provided a powerful pretext for the
Iranian-backed and financed organization to develop a military force that not
only rivalled the Lebanese Armed Forces but, in several respects, surpassed it —
enabling it to exert significant influence across large parts of the country.
Unlike the confrontation with Iran, in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has clearly articulated objectives that extend beyond neutralizing
nuclear and missile capabilities to include the prospect of regime change, one
of the stated aims in Lebanon is, at least in principle, the exact opposite of
creating the conditions for the Lebanese government to take control of the
country. Israel seeks to degrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and, in doing so,
also enable the Lebanese state to reassert control over the territory between
the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated ceasefire line, and the Litani River, about 30
km to the north. The strategic objective is to establish a buffer zone
separating Israeli territory from Hezbollah’s operational reach.
Yet, pursuing this objective through overwhelming military force carries
significant risks. Strikes that extend beyond Hezbollah’s military
infrastructure, resulting in large-scale casualties, including civilians and
children, and emergency personnel, while destroying houses and civilian
infrastructure, risks producing precisely the opposite of their intended effect.
Rather than weakening Hezbollah’s position, it reinforces its excuse for
remaining a military force, without active resistance to it by the government or
the Lebanese population. The risks would be even more pronounced if Israel were
to initiate a large-scale ground offensive, potentially leading to a prolonged
occupation of southern Lebanon, an outcome with a long-lasting and fraught
historical precedent.
This approach reflects a deeply embedded security paradigm within Israel’s
political and military leadership: the conviction that only direct control over
territory can ensure lasting security, rather than reliance on the capacity of
the Lebanese state or its armed forces.
Use of overwhelming military force carries significant risks.
As in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Hezbollah has moved to
inflame Israel’s northern front, launching cross-border rocket attacks that it
framed as a “revenge for the blood of the Supreme Leader of the Muslims, Ali
Khamenei.” Although both sides can be accused of violating the November 2024
ceasefire before the latest escalation, Hezbollah’s actions went beyond a
limited or localized breach. Instead, they signaled a deliberate re-entry into
sustained hostilities, likely aligned with Iranian strategic interests and
encouraged by Tehran.
Hezbollah’s leadership is unlikely to have acted without anticipating a forceful
Israeli response, particularly at a time when Israel is engaged in a war with
its chief opponent, Iran, and still has to concentrate forces in Gaza and the
West Bank. Indeed, this escalation may have been designed precisely to provoke
such a reaction. If Israel were to refrain from responding decisively, it would
risk appearing weak and overextended. After all, before the November 2024
ceasefire, large parts of northern Israel had been evacuated for over a year due
to persistent rocket attacks and the threat of incursions by Hezbollah’s elite
Radwan Force. The displacement of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians
represented a tangible strategic gain for Hezbollah — and, by extension, for
Iran — one that Israel is unlikely to accept as a new status quo. However, a
forceful Israeli response carries its own strategic dangers. The destruction of
critical infrastructure, such as bridges along the Litani River, and the
signaling of a potential ground operation aimed at establishing a security zone,
risks alienating the local population and further weakening the already fragile
Lebanese state.
This dynamic creates a self-reinforcing cycle that undermines long-term
stability. Actions intended to weaken Hezbollah risk instead entrenching its
role within Lebanon’s political and security landscape. Such an outcome would
complicate any future efforts to reach a negotiated settlement or move toward a
broader normalization of relations between Israel and Lebanon. This dilemma
poses a significant challenge for any Israeli government, particularly one that
is not equipped to handle complex situations requiring a more nuanced approach.
In this battle, the Israeli and Lebanese government and most of its population
are on the same side, as the latter seems to be determined to take the country
on a different path, helped by a weakened Hezbollah, together with Iran, which
have for decades hijacked the political system and held the society to ransom.
Hezbollah, together with Iran, has hijacked the political system.
Israel’s desire to establish a security buffer between the Blue Line and the
Litani River is not, in itself, unreasonable. However, such an objective does
not necessarily require a sustained military presence or territorial occupation.
A more sustainable approach would prioritize avoiding prolonged occupation while
fostering cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces, thereby laying the
groundwork for a revised, mutually acceptable security arrangement. In this
regard, a practical benchmark for de-escalation would be a renewed commitment to
UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 and reaffirmed in the 2024
ceasefire framework. The resolution recognizes the Lebanese government as the
sole legitimate authority entitled to possess and deploy weapons within the area
between the Litani River and the Blue Line. Effective implementation of this
framework could allow for a full Israeli withdrawal from contested areas,
including the remaining outposts held after the last ceasefire, while providing
a measure of security through the demilitarization of the border zone. This
cannot be achieved without regional and international support and a peacekeeping
operation with a clear mandate.
Ultimately, the challenge along the Israel–Lebanon border lies in reconciling
two competing logics: the immediate demands of security and the longer-term
requirements of political stability. Military force may offer short-term
deterrence, but without a credible political framework, it risks perpetuating
the very conditions that give rise to recurring conflict. Only by shifting from
a paradigm of territorial control to one of cooperative security can a more
durable and stable equilibrium emerge along this volatile frontier.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg
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March 29/2026