English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News
& Editorials
For March 17/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
But immediately he spoke to them and said, ‘Take heart, it is I; do not be
afraid
Mark 06/47-56: “When evening came, the boat was out on the lake,
and he was alone on the land. When he saw that they were straining at the oars
against an adverse wind, he came towards them early in the morning, walking on
the lake. He intended to pass them by. But when they saw him walking on the
lake, they thought it was a ghost and cried out; for they all saw him and were
terrified. But immediately he spoke to them and said, ‘Take heart, it is I; do
not be afraid.’Then he got into the boat with them and the wind ceased. And they
were utterly astounded, for they did not understand about the loaves, but their
hearts were hardened. When they had crossed over, they came to land at
Gennesaret and moored the boat. When they got out of the boat, people at once
recognized him, and rushed about that whole region and began to bring the sick
on mats to wherever they heard he was.And wherever he went, into villages or
cities or farms, they laid the sick in the market-places, and begged him that
they might touch even the fringe of his cloak; and all who touched it were
healed.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on March 16-17/2026
Elias Bejjani/From 2024 Archive)Text and Video: Why the Disgraceful Silence on
Hezbollah’s Prisons After the Horrors of Assad’s Human Slaughterhouses and Human
Presses?
The Healing Miracle of the Paralytic & The Power of Praying for Others/Elias
Bejjani/March 15/2025
The Martyrs of Ain Ebel: George, Elie, and Shadi to the Heavenly Mansions Where
there is no pain, nor sorrow, but life everlasting/Elias Bejjani/March 12, 2026
DWS News/Viseo-Link to President Trump Brief On Iran Conflict, oil Routes &
Strait Crisis
A video link of an interview on Sky News with the
distinguished media figure and political commentator Nadim Koteich
Israel Says Lebanese Displaced Won’t Return Until Its Own Citizens Are Safe
Israel Steps up Campaign in Lebanon, as Iran Keeps Stranglehold on Shipping
Israel Army Says Ground Assault Against Hezbollah Underway in Lebanon
Trump says Hezbollah 'rapidly being eliminated'
South Lebanon's Christian towns insist they are not part of Israel-Hezbollah war
Turkey condemns Israeli ground operation in Lebanon
Berri to meet Aoun, Paris presses him on 'Shiite negotiator'
Charges filed against 4 Hezbollah members for carrying arms and missiles
Hezbollah says launched rockets, drones at north Israel city
Lebanon registers more than one million displaced in Israel-Hezbollah war
Germany says Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon an 'error'
Hezbollah clashes with Israeli forces trying to enter south Lebanon
Foreign Ministry slams Hezbollah over shooting at UNIFIL
Displaced Lebanese 'will not return' until north Israel secure, Katz says
Herzog says French offer to mediate with Lebanon 'very positive'
5 Western leaders urge against 'significant' Israeli ground op in Lebanon
Kuwait Announces Dismantling of a Cell Linked to Hezbollah,
Including Kuwaitis and Lebanese
Lebanon war intensifies as IDF strikes harder and Hezbollah escalates attacks/David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/March 16/2026
The War on Hezbollah-The Iranian Terrorist Proxy Continues/LCCC website
Video-links to several important news websites
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on March 16-17/2026
Trump on Iran: We Don’t Know Their Leaders
Western allies push back on Trump call for NATO help to reopen Hormuz
Trump says Iran wants to make a deal
Direct US-Iran contact resumes, Tehran signals interest in ending war: Report
Egypt rejects and condemns Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia, al-Sisi tells MBS
Saudi source denies NYT report claiming Kingdom encouraging prolonged Iran war
Strike kills six Iraqi fighters near Syria border
US ‘fine’ with some ships getting through Strait of Hormuz, Bessent says
Europeans Seek Clarity About Trump’s Iran War Aims Before Agreeing to His
Warship Demands
Middle East War ‘Not a Matter for NATO’, Says Germany’s Merz
Israel Police Say Shrapnel from Missiles, Interceptors Fell in Jerusalem Holy
Sites
WHO Says Six Hospitals Evacuated in Iran, System Holding Up
Strike Kills at Least Four Iraqi Fighters Near Syria Border
Iraq Hopes to Ship Oil to Türkiye by Pipeline as War Cuts off Exports
Why Iranian Drones Are Hard to Stop
The War on Hezbollah-The Iranian Terrorist Proxy Continues/LCCC website
Video-links to several important news websites
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on March 16-17/2026
Hamas Crimes No One Talks About/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/March 16/2026
5 Things To Know About Mojtaba Khamenei/Janatan Sayeh &Samuel
Ben-Ur/Insight/March 16/2026
Oman Is Under Fire From an Iranian Regime It Sought To Befriend /Ahmad Sharawi/Policy
Brief - FDD/March 13, 2026
How Iran’s forced oil crisis is Trump’s energy opportunity /Natalie Ecanow/ New
York Post/March 16, 2026
Arab Nations’ Era of Accommodating Iran Is Over/Ahmad Sharawi/National
Review/March 16/2026
Europe needs to seize and hold Russian tankers, not play catch-and-release/Max
Meizlish & Peter Doran/Euractiv/March 16/2026
Regime Change Without Nation Building/Jonathan Schanzer/The Commentary/March
16/2026
War and the Price of Image/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March
16/2026
Iran’s supreme leader: Strategic calculations between attrition and victory
illusions/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya English/1 6 March/2026
X Platform Selected twittes for March 16/2026
on March 16-17/2026
Elias Bejjani/From 2024 Archive)Text and Video: Why the
Disgraceful Silence on Hezbollah’s Prisons After the Horrors of Assad’s Human
Slaughterhouses and Human Presses?
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138103/
December 17, 2024
Despite all the disgraceful, inhumane, and unprecedented crimes in modern
history that were revealed regarding prisons and detention centers in Syria
after the fall of the tyrant Assad regime, and despite exposing the bloody
practices suffered by both the Lebanese and Syrian people for 61 years under
Baathist rule, 54 of which were under the reign of Assad’s father and son…
Despite these resounding scandals that shook the world and shocked the
consciences of decent human beings, silence still dominates regarding
Hezbollah’s Persian, Jihadist, terrorist, and criminal prisons in Lebanon.
These are terrifying and illegal detention centers and prisons that many
journalists and politicians have written about, covered by local, Arab, and
international media, with some of their secrets revealed by detainees who
managed to escape after enduring the most horrific types of torture (many such
reports are attached below).
Among those who bravely exposed the reality of Hezbollah’s prisons are Arab,
international, and local television stations, as well as many Lebanese sovereign
journalists and activists, most notably researcher Lokman Slim, whom Hezbollah
assassinated and continues to prevent investigations into his murder.
In previous articles, most dating back to 2015 (attached below), we focused on
the file of Hezbollah’s prisons and the testimonies of those lucky enough to
have escaped without being killed. It is worth noting that most of these
individuals were from the Shiite community, rejecting Hezbollah’s terrorism,
Persian influence, and the fundamentalist lifestyle it imposed on their areas
and families.
Hezbollah, the terrorist group that has assassinated hundreds of Lebanese
opposed to its occupation, continues to fraudulently market what it falsely
calls the “suffering of the detainees of Khiam Prison,” which, before 2000,
operated in the Southern border strip area under the supervision of the South
Lebanon Army (SLA) and Israeli security forces. This prison adhered to all
international prison standards; the International Red Cross regularly inspected
it, and detainees’ families visited them. Compared to Assad’s prisons, most
Lebanese prisons, and Hezbollah’s detention centers, it was practically a
paradise—a hotel with hundreds of stars. Nevertheless, Hezbollah attacked,
assassinated, and fabricated charges against many Lebanese, creating false
judicial files to persecute those who worked in that prison, among them, the
USA/Lebanese Victim, Amer Fakhoury
Today, after the fall of Assad’s regime and the exposure of the atrocities in
its prisons, and after Hezbollah’s terrorist group was defeated and caused its
reckless and senseless war on Israel, resulting in the deaths of more than 5,000
Lebanese, injuries and disabilities to over 30,000 others, and the destruction
of most towns and villages in the South, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of
Beirut—what is required, without fear or hesitation and in accordance with local
and international law, is to uncover Hezbollah’s prisons, do justice to those
imprisoned, and reveal the identities of those who killed and tortured them.
Furthermore, the international community and human rights organizations,
particularly the International Red Cross, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty
International, must act immediately to conduct transparent investigations,
uncover the locations of Hezbollah’s prisons, and document the crimes committed
within them. The Lebanese government also bears responsibility for launching a
serious investigation to reveal the full facts about these illegal and secret
detention centers and to hold those responsible accountable before justice.
Hezbollah, which has forcibly imposed itself as an Iranian occupying authority
in Lebanon since 2005 through its weapons, bears full responsibility for all the
criminal practices inside and outside its prisons in Lebanon, as well as in
Syria, where it fought alongside the Assad regime against the Syrian people.
In fairness and in accordance with the rule of law, the current media blackout
and prevailing fear surrounding the exposure of Hezbollah’s prisons and
detention centers must come to an end. Accordingly, anyone who overlooks or
justifies Hezbollah’s prisons, detention centers, or crimes under the pretexts
of “resistance” or “liberation” is complicit in cementing Iran’s occupation of
Lebanon and displacing its people.
History will not forgive the collaborators and cowards, and the time has come to
raise the voice of truth, expose the atrocities of this terrorist group,
prosecute its leaders, dissolve it, and prevent it from playing any role in
Lebanon under any name or justification.
The Healing Miracle of the Paralytic & The Power of Praying for Others
Elias Bejjani/March 15/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/73457/
On the fifth Sunday of Lent, Catholic Maronites reflect with great reverence on
the Gospel of Saint Mark (2:1-12), which recounts The Healing Miracle of the
Paralytic. This powerful miracle underscores the immense value of intercession,
affirming that prayers and supplications for others are faith-driven acts that
Almighty God attentively hears and graciously answers.
Notably, the paralytic man in this Gospel passage did not personally seek Jesus'
help, nor did he ask for healing, forgiveness, or mercy. Many theologians
believe that Jesus frequently preached in Capernaum’s synagogue, the very town
where this man lived, yet he remained distant—lacking faith, hope, and spiritual
awareness. He did not believe that the Lord could cure him.
What makes this miracle particularly remarkable is the unwavering faith of the
paralytic’s friends, relatives, or perhaps some of Jesus' disciples. They were
convinced that if Jesus merely touched him, the man who had been crippled for 38
years would be healed. Their deep faith and determination compelled four of them
to carry him on a mat to the house where Jesus was preaching. When they could
not break through the crowd, they climbed onto the roof, made an opening, and
lowered the paralytic before Jesus, pleading for his healing.
Moved by their faith, Jesus first forgave the man’s sins: "Son, your sins are
forgiven." Only afterward did He heal his body, commanding: "Arise, take up your
bed, and walk."
Like the scribes in the Gospel, many today question why Jesus prioritized the
forgiveness of sins over physical healing. His divine wisdom reveals that sin is
the true death, leading to eternal suffering in Hell. Sin cripples the soul,
destroys faith and hope, erodes morals and values, and numbs the conscience,
separating individuals from God. Jesus sought to restore the man’s soul before
curing his body, teaching an eternal truth: "For what does it profit a man to
gain the whole world, yet forfeit his soul?" (Mark 8:36-37).
Our merciful God never turns away those who seek Him in faith and humility. He
listens with boundless love and responds in His divine wisdom, time, and
manner:" Ask, and it will be given to you; seek, and you will find; knock, and
it will be opened to you. For everyone who asks receives, and the one who seeks
finds, and to the one who knocks, it will be opened." (Matthew 7:7-8)
"Is anyone among you suffering? Let him pray. Is anyone cheerful? Let him sing
praises. Is anyone among you sick? Let him call for the elders of the church,
and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord. And
the prayer of faith will heal the one who is sick, and the Lord will raise him
up." (James 5:15)
Within this divine context of mercy and intercession, prayers for others—whether
they are living or deceased, loved ones or enemies, relatives or strangers—are
acts of faith and compassion. God listens and responds because He never abandons
His children, provided they turn to Him with sincere repentance and trust.
Numerous biblical passages demonstrate God’s acceptance of prayers offered on
behalf of others:
Jesus healed the Centurion’s servant at the request of the Centurion, not the
servant himself. (Matthew 8:5-13)
Jesus raised Lazarus from the dead in response to the pleas of his sisters, Mary
and Martha. (John 11:1-44)
Praying for others—whether family, friends, strangers, or even nations—reflects
faith, love, and hope. Almighty God, as a loving and merciful Father, hears
these prayers and answers them according to His divine wisdom, which often
transcends human understanding:
"Whatever you ask in prayer, believing, you will receive." (Matthew 21:22)
God is always waiting for us, His children, to seek His mercy—whether for
ourselves or for others. He never leaves us alone. Moreover, it is our duty of
faith to extend a helping hand to those who cannot pray for themselves—the lost,
the suffering, the unconscious, and the paralyzed. This spirit of intercession
is why we also pray to the Virgin Mary and the Saints—not as objects of worship,
but as intercessors who bring our pleas before the Lord.
O Lord, grant us the grace of faith, hope, wisdom, and patience.Help us to be
loving, humble, and compassionate. Guide us on the path of righteousness May we
stand with the just on the Day of Judgment.God sees and hears us always—let us
live in reverence to Him in all we think, say, and do.
N.B: The above piece was first published in 2012/It Is Republished with minor
changes
The Martyrs of Ain Ebel: George, Elie, and Shadi to the
Heavenly Mansions Where there is no pain, nor sorrow, but life everlasting
Elias Bejjani/March 12, 2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/152739/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2MiQS010DY
“Naked came I out of my mother’s womb, and naked shall I return thither: the
Lord gave, and the Lord hath taken away; blessed be the name of the Lord.” (Job
01:21)
In the solemnity of faith, and with a grief that constricts the sovereign hearts
pulsating with the love of Lebanon, we bid farewell today to a new constellation
of the Martyrs of the Cedars—martyrs of steadfastness, heroism, and faith. They
have watered with their pure blood the sacred soil of Southern Lebanon; the land
blessed by the footsteps of our Lord Jesus Christ and His Mother Mary, which
witnessed the majesty of His first miracle in Cana of Lebanon, where He turned
water into wine to herald the joy of the Kingdom.
An Elegy of Martyrdom and Resilience: From Alma al-Shaab to Ain Ebel.
How grievous it is to depart from heroes in the prime of their giving, yet our
solace lies in the truth that they are “Children of Light” who rejected the
darkness. Days ago, we were afflicted by the martyrdom of Mr. Sami al-Ghafari in
the patriotic village of Alma al-Shaab—brother to the parish priest—followed on
the path of Golgotha by Father Pierre al-Raee in the village of Qlaiaa. Today,
the tragedy continues to unfold in the noble town of Ain Ebel with the martyrdom
of three of its youth in the flower of their youth: George Khreish, Elie Atallah
Dahrouj, and Shadi Ammar.
These men bore no arms; rather, they carried the tools to connect the world.
They were martyred while repairing the internet network to sustain their
people’s presence in their land, confirming that steadfastness is not merely a
slogan, but an daily act of faith. They were slain without guilt, save for being
“Heroes of Remaining” who refused displacement, clinging to the soil of their
ancestors, defying the machinery of death imposed by the Iranian occupation and
its terrorist instrument (Hezbollah), which holds Lebanon hostage to foreign
agendas and drags peaceful villages into a futile war in which the people of the
land have no say.
In the Presence of the Divine Word
We lift our prayers today, remembering the words of the Lord Jesus:
“Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his
friends.” (John 15:13).
The three heroic martyrs—George, Elie, and Shadi—offered themselves as a ransom
for the survival of Ain Ebel, that its bells may continue to toll and its homes
remain inhabited. We echo the words of Saint Paul, who comforts us in our human
frailty:
“For we know that if our earthly house of this tabernacle were dissolved, we
have a building of God, an house not made with hands, eternal in the heavens.”
(2 Corinthians 5:1).
They have been liberated today from the earthly tent of the body, burdened with
afflictions, to return to the bosom of the Heavenly Father as angels interceding
for us from above.
A Message of Sovereignty and Sorrow
The systematic displacement and wanton shelling befalling our border villages
are not mere “accidents of war,” but the result of shackling the nation to alien
axes that do not resemble us. We hold fully responsible those who have
desecrated our sovereignty and turned our frontline villages into ramparts for
their regional projects. The targeting of our youth is an attempt to break the
will to remain; but Ain Ebel, which drank from the cups of bitterness in the
past, shall not be broken today.
A Heartfelt Condolence
To the bereaved families, to the wives and children whose hearts are broken, and
to the mothers of the martyrs who offered their most precious treasures: we
offer our condolences with hearts wrung with pain, and we console our Church,
which bleeds with every martyr. May the passing of George, Elie, and Shadi be an
oblation for the resurrection of a sovereign, free, and independent Lebanon.
Eternal rest grant unto them, O Lord, and let perpetual light shine upon them.
To our people in the South, we pray for steadfastness and victory over the
machinery of death and subjugation.
DWS News/Viseo-Link to President
Trump Brief On Iran Conflict, oil Routes & Strait Crisis
DWS News/March 16/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/152821/
U.S. President Donald Trump briefs
reporters at the White House on the escalating conflict with Iran and security
concerns in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Trump discusses military strikes,
regional security, and calls for international cooperation to secure the crucial
energy corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil flows.Donald Trump press
conference, Trump Iran war remarks, White House briefing Trump, Trump Strait of
Hormuz comments, US Iran conflict news, Middle East crisis update, Trump
military strikes Iran, Strait of Hormuz oil route security, Trump foreign policy
speech, Iran missile and drone attacks, Kharg Island strike news, global oil
shipping route crisis, US allies security debate, Washington DC press briefing,
Trump geopolitical remarks, US military operations Iran, international relations
news, global energy security news, Trump media briefing today, breaking world
politics news.
A video
link of an interview on Sky News with the distinguished media figure and
political commentator Nadim Koteich
Offering a reading of the delusions and illusions of the mullahs’
regime, which is skilled in lying and deception. He affirms that the regime is
finished — and that this is a good thing — noting that within the collective
Arab mindset, both among elites and the general public, there are three
archetypes: a “mini Gamal Abdel Nasser,” a “mini Saddam Hussein,” or a “mini
Osama bin Laden,” and these tend to emerge in times of crisis/In deepth analysis
of Larejan’s appeal
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/03/152827/
Journalist and media figure Nadim Koteich said that the recent statements by Ali
Larijani reveal Iran’s strategic bankruptcy and its transformation from a state
into a terrorist organization. In an interview with Sky News Arabia, Koteich
explained that the Iranian regime is experiencing internal conflict and is
resorting to political appeasement through populist and religious rhetoric after
the failure of its policies in the region. He also pointed out that the chances
of building trust with the Gulf states are nearly nonexistent, and that the
current Iranian project is on the verge of collapse.
Israel Says
Lebanese Displaced Won’t Return Until Its Own Citizens Are Safe
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
Israel on Monday warned that displaced Lebanese driven from their homes by its
military campaign would not be able to return until the safety of Israelis
living near the border was ensured, as Israeli troops pushed into new parts of
southern Lebanon. In a briefing, Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant
Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters that soldiers were now conducting ground
operations in "new locations", describing the latest offensive as "limited and
targeted". The extended operation began days after Defense Minister Israel Katz
said the military had been ordered to expand its campaign. He later warned that
the country could face territorial losses and damage to its infrastructure
unless Hezbollah was disarmed. Israel's military, which has occupied five
positions in southern Lebanon since a November 2024 ceasefire with Hezbollah,
sent additional forces into the country after Hezbollah fired a salvo of
rockets on March 2, dragging Lebanon into an expanding regional war. Hezbollah
said its attack was in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader on
February 28, the first day of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Israel has responded
with an intensive bombing campaign on Lebanon.
COMPARISON WITH GAZA
The military has framed the ground offensive, launched after March 2, as a
defensive effort to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks, which it
says have averaged at least 100 rockets and drones a day and have reached as far
as central Israel. More than 880 people in Lebanon have been killed, according
to Lebanon's health ministry, and more than 800,000 have been driven from their
homes, many from the south as well as from areas near the capital, Beirut. On
Monday, Katz linked the return of displaced Lebanese residents to the safety of
Israelis living near the border. "Hundreds of thousands of Shiite residents of
southern Lebanon who have evacuated or are evacuating their homes in southern
Lebanon and Beirut will not return to areas south of the Litani line until the
safety of northern residents is ensured," he said in a statement. He said the
military had been instructed to destroy "terrorist infrastructure" in villages
in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel, drawing a comparison to
operations in cities in the Gaza Strip that were largely destroyed by Israeli
forces. Katz also suggested that Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, could
face a fate similar to that of his predecessor, and to Iran's supreme leader,
both of whom were killed in Israeli strikes. Qassem said last week threats
against his life were “worthless.”
ISRAELI TROOPS ADVANCE WEST
Over the weekend, Israeli troops encircled the key southern Lebanese town of
Khiam and were advancing west toward the Litani River, a move that could leave
large swathes of southern Lebanon under Israeli control, Lebanese security
sources told Reuters. Israeli troops battled Hezbollah fighters in southern
Lebanon throughout the day on Monday, and advanced towards Bint Jbeil, a
Lebanese village and Hezbollah stronghold located about 4 km from the border
with Israel, the sources said. Two Israeli officials said on Sunday that Israel
and Lebanon were expected to hold talks in the coming days aimed at securing a
durable ceasefire which would see Hezbollah disarmed. A Lebanese source familiar
with the matter said it didn't seem talks with Israel would be taking place
soon, though they would happen eventually. Israel's Ambassador to the United
Nations Danny Danon told reporters that a "few players were trying to mediate
and host talks", adding: "I believe the next step will be talks but first we
have to degrade the capability of Hezbollah." Under the November 2024 ceasefire,
Hezbollah was to pull back from southern Lebanon as the Lebanese military took
over. Israel said Lebanon never upheld its part of the deal, continuing
near-daily air strikes against what it said were Hezbollah positions and
weapons.
Israel Steps up Campaign in Lebanon, as Iran Keeps
Stranglehold on Shipping
Asharq Al Awsat/March 16/2026
The war in the Middle East raged on multiple fronts on Monday, as the US and
Israel pummeled military targets in Iran’s capital, Israel stepped up its
campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran retaliated with a
drone strike that temporarily forced the closure of Dubai’s airport, a crucial
hub for travelers. Fears of a global energy crisis persisted, even as a small
number of ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through
which a fifth of the world’s oil is usually transported. Iranian strikes on
commercial ships in and around the strait, and even just the threat of those
attacks, have slowed shipping there to a trickle. That has dramatically
increased the price of oil and put pressure on Washington to do something to
ease the pain for consumers and the global economy. Brent crude, the
international standard, remained over $100 a barrel on Monday. US President
Donald Trump said he has demanded that roughly a half-dozen countries send
warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, but so far his appeals have brought
no commitments. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said of the strait,
“From our perspective it is open” — just not for the United States, Israel and
its allies. On social media, Araghchi also rejected as “delusional” claims that
Iran was looking for a negotiated end to the war. He said it was seeking neither
“truce nor talks.” Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran more than
two weeks ago, Tehran has regularly fired drones and missiles at Israel,
American bases in the region, and Gulf Arab countries’ energy infrastructure.
Israel hits Beirut and launches new attacks on Tehran
Massive explosions were heard in Beirut as Israel launched new attacks on the
Lebanese capital before dawn, saying it was striking infrastructure related to
the Iran-linked Hezbollah party. Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern
Israel after the US-Israeli attack of Iran on Feb. 28. The Israeli army has
issued evacuation orders for many neighborhoods in Beirut’s southern suburbs, as
well as southern Lebanon. Israel’s strikes have displaced a million Lebanese
from large swaths of the country’s southern region and its capital’s southern
suburbs, and some 850 people have been killed in Lebanon. Some Israeli troops
have pushed into southern Lebanon, and there are fears that Israel is preparing
a large-scale invasion. In southern Lebanon, seven people were killed in Israeli
airstrikes, according to authorities and news reports. Not long after Israel’s
military announced it had launched new strikes on Tehran, targeting
infrastructure, explosions were heard in the Iranian capital and outlying areas.
More details were not immediately available with information coming out of Iran
severely limited by internet outages, round-the-clock airstrikes and tight
restrictions on journalists. More than 1,300 people have been killed in Iran so
far, according to the Iranian Red Crescent. Israel has carried out some 7,600
strikes on Iran so far, knocking out 85% of its air defenses and 70% of Iran's
missile launchers, military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani told reporters
Monday. In Israel, 12 people have been killed by Iranian missile fire. At least
13 US military members have been killed.
Trump seeks allies' help to police Strait of Hormuz
The virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is unnerving the world economy,
driving up energy and fertilizer prices; threatening food shortages in poor
countries; destabilizing fragile states; and complicating efforts by central
banks to drive down prices for consumers. At an event at the White House on
Monday, Trump said “numerous countries” have told him “they’re on the way” to
help police the Strait of Hormuz. But he also suggested the reluctance of some
countries to join the war against Iran showed a lack of reciprocity in defense
agreements with the United States. “The level of enthusiasm matters to me,” he
said. Trump didn't specify the countries, but has previously appealed to China,
France, Japan, South Korea and Britain. Brent crude was above $101 in afternoon
trading, up roughly 40% since the war began. Many officials have been scrambling
to ease prices. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said
its 32 member countries still have additional reserves of 1.4 billion barrels on
top of the record 400 million they agreed to release last week to address supply
constraints. Admiral Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle
East, said in a video posted on X that American forces are zeroing in on Iran’s
threats to freighters carrying oil and natural gas. Europeans have been critical
of the US and Israel for failing to provide clarity on their objectives in the
war. Ahead of a meeting in Brussels, the European Union’s foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas said the bloc’s foreign ministers would discuss possibly extending a
naval mission that protects ships in the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz,
without giving any details. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told
reporters in Brussels that his country favors strengthening anti-piracy and
defensive missions in the Red Sea, but said he didn't believe in expanding their
roles to the Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, which is
not an EU member, told reporters that Britain and allies were working on a plan
to reopen the strait. Starmer said Britain might deploy mine-hunting UK drones
already in the region, but insisted it “will not be drawn into the wider war.”
He signaled that the UK is unlikely to dispatch a warship. Japan and Australia
both said Monday that they had not been asked to help protect the strait and had
no current plans to do so.
Iran hits Dubai airport, shrapnel falls in Jerusalem's Old City
As morning broke Monday, a drone hit a fuel tank near Dubai International
Airport, the world’s busiest for international passenger traffic, causing a
large fire. Firefighters contained the blaze and there were no injuries
reported, but the airport suspended all flights before resuming them a few hours
later.
Later, a person was killed in the capital of the United Arab Emirates when an
Iranian missile hit a vehicle, the Abu Dhabi media office said. Fire also broke
out at an oil facility in Fujairah, one of the UAE’s seven emirates, following a
drone attack. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, said it intercepted a wave of 35 Iranian
drones sent to the Eastern Region. In Israel, an intercepted Iranian missile
attack sprayed shrapnel through Jerusalem’s Old City, hitting the rooftop of the
Greek Orthodox Patriarchate, just meters from the Church of the Holy Sepulcher,
built on what is revered by many Christians as the site of Jesus’ crucifixion,
burial and resurrection. Israel’s Fire and Rescue service said a large piece
from an intercepted missile also struck a home in east Jerusalem, and that
another large fragment landed in the yard of a home just north of the Old City.
There were no reports of injuries.
Israel Army Says Ground Assault Against Hezbollah Underway
in Lebanon
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
The Israeli military said on Monday it was carrying out what it described as
"limited" ground operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, with its
defense minister warning that those displaced would not return home until
northern Israel was secure. Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East war on March
2 when Tehran-backed Hezbollah attacked Israel in response to the killing of
Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes. Israel responded with
air raids on its northern neighbor and troop incursions into border areas.
Lebanon authorities said on Monday that Israeli attacks have killed 886 people,
including 111 children, in the country since the latest war erupted. They said
more than one million people had registered as displaced. A statement said the
number of displaced people who had registered their names on a website
affiliated with the social affairs ministry had reached 1,049,328, with 132,742
of them staying in more than 600 collective shelters. An Israeli military
statement said that in recent days its troops "have begun limited and targeted
ground operations against key Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon". "This
activity is part of broader defensive efforts to establish and strengthen a
forward defensive posture, which includes the dismantling of terrorist
infrastructure and the elimination of terrorists operating in the area, in order
to remove threats and create an additional layer of security for residents of
northern Israel," it said. The ground operations were preceded by air and
artillery strikes, it added. The announcement echoes similar statements issued
in 2024, when Israel and Hezbollah fought a major war in Lebanon, and in 2023,
when the military launched a ground assault in Gaza in response to Hamas's
October 7 attacks.
'New locations' -
Türkiye condemned the Israeli ground operation, saying it was "worsening
instability in the region" and warning of "another humanitarian catastrophe" in
the Middle East. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, meanwhile, urged Israel to
"not take this path -- it would be an error", also warning of the humanitarian
consequences of a ground offensive. In a briefing to journalists, Israeli
military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said Hezbollah was
"intending to expand their operations... and firing hundreds of rockets a day"
toward Israel. "They have also sent hundreds of Radwan terrorists to the south
(of Lebanon)," he added, referring to Hezbollah's elite unit. Shoshani said the
ground operations were "limited in target against locations what we understand
Hezbollah is posing a threat towards our civilians." "Those are new locations
that our troops were not operating in yesterday," he said, adding that "we'll
operate for as much as we need". In recent days, Hezbollah has reported
targeting Israeli forces on the border with Lebanon and in a number of frontier
towns, including "direct clashes" in Khiam.
No north Israel evacuations -
The town, located across the border from the Israeli town of Metula, was the
first point into which Israeli forces advanced after the start of the war.
Hezbollah has repeatedly announced targeting Israeli forces and vehicles at
positions inside Khiam. Israel preceded its ground operations with strikes on a
number of bridges and roads that connect southern Lebanon to the rest of the
country. Since the beginning of the war, the Israeli military has issued
evacuation warnings for wide areas in southern Lebanon, extending more than 40
kilometers (around 25 miles) from its border. Defense Minister Israel Katz
warned on Monday that those displaced in Lebanon would not be allowed to return
home "south of the Litani area until the safety of residents in the north (of
Israel) is guaranteed". The Israeli military has repeatedly said it would not
evacuate people from the north, as it had done in the previous 2024 war. During
that conflict, Israel evacuated tens of thousands of residents from northern
communities until a ceasefire was struck in November 2024. Despite that
ceasefire, Israel had conducted near-daily air strikes on Hezbollah targets
inside Lebanon. In recent days, the group and Iran have launched coordinated
rocket and missile attacks against Israel. Israel, meanwhile, said no direct
talks were planned with Lebanon to end the fighting, which has been raging for
two weeks.
Trump says
Hezbollah 'rapidly being eliminated'
Naharnet/March 16/2026U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated that
Hezbollah is a "big problem," while noting that "they're rapidly being
eliminated" in the ongoing war with Israel.
"Hezbollah is a problem. It's been a problem for a long time, not just now,"
Trump said in response to a reporter's question. The U.S. president also
explained that there are safe areas in Lebanon where Hezbollah is not present.
"And it's a certain area, because I was the other night with a person whose
parents live in Lebanon. This is a very substantial person, a wealthy person,"
Trump said. "I said really! How do you live in Lebanon, your parents are living?
(He said) 'oh yeah, they live there, and over the years they've gotten used to
the fact that it is being bombed. But they explain to me that it's really a
different section of Lebanon. It's a section where Hezbollah is.' And they get
used to it I guess," the U.S. leader added. "I don't know. I mean people live in
Ukraine. You would think they wouldn't live in Ukraine, but they live in
Ukraine. I don't know if I'd do that, but people live in Ukraine, they live in
Lebanon," he went on to say.
South Lebanon's Christian towns insist they are not part of
Israel-Hezbollah war
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
In southern Lebanon's Ain Ebel, close to the border with Israel, Suad Jallad
holds a poster of her son, killed by Israel last week, saying she would rather
be buried next to him than leave. Ain Ebel, a village filled with red-riled
roofs and surrounded by olive groves, is one of few Christian villages in the
Bint Jbeil district whose residents refuse to evacuate, insisting they are not a
party to the war between Israel and Hezbollah. "We live in fear and terror," the
56-year-old said, indicating the positions from which she says Hezbollah and
Israel fire at one another, insisting that "despite this, we stayed in the
village". Shadi Ammar, Jallad's 22-year-old son, was killed with two other
residents by an Israeli drone strike last week, as they were trying to repair
the internet connection on a roof, according to Lebanon's state-run National
News Agency. "He did not want to leave the town. He stayed, but is now in the
cemetery," she told AFP, sobbing in the church hall. Lebanon was drawn into the
Middle East war on March 2 when Tehran-backed Hezbollah attacked Israel in
response to the killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in
U.S.-Israeli strikes.
Israel, which never stopped bombing Lebanon despite a 2024 ceasefire, responded
with air raids on its northern neighbor and troop incursions into border areas.
"I used to tell him to travel and get his life in order... He'd say, 'I won't
leave Ain Ebel,'" Jallad said.The town finds itself surrounded by Israeli
strikes respond to rocket fires from Hezbollah in nearby areas. "We were living
in poverty and scarcity, and we used to say, 'Thank God,'" Jalad said."But to
betray our children like this and kill them? Why? They had nothing to fight them
with... It is a shame that their blood was shed in vain."
'Bury me next to my son' -
After participating in a prayer service attended by the Papal Nuncio to Lebanon,
Paolo Borgia, who is touring Christian towns near the border, Jallad wept for
her young son, holding a photograph of him. His death reminded her of her
mother's anguish when Jallad's brother was killed decades earlier. "I lived
through the same experience. I was 14 when my brother died," she said, adding
that "he was in the South Lebanon Army at the time... He died at the age of
21".The South Lebanon Army started operating during the 1980s in the border
region of southern Lebanon, under Israeli occupation until 2000.
The Christian-majority force consisted of defected Lebanese army officers and
soldiers, as well as recruits from the area, and was loyal to Israel. Israel has
fought three major wars with Hezbollah since its occupation ended. "We did not
choose this war, nor do we want it, but we chose to stay," Ain Ebel mayor Ayoub
Khreich said in front of a Papal delegation.
Maroun Nassif, a municipal council member in neighboring Debl, told AFP "we are
paying the price for policies we did not choose". "We are forced to sacrifice
and risk our very existence in this area so that we do not lose our land, our
homes, our villages, and become refugees with nowhere to go.""We are forced to
stay in our villages so that we can still have a village," he added, reflecting
fears that their homes will be used for Hezbollah's military operations, making
them targets for Israeli raids. In Rmeish, another town that overlooks Israel,
women gathered around an aid convoy from a Catholic organization.
"Since I was little, the town has been bombed... there has always been war,"
Elvira al-Amil, a mother of three, said. "We grew up with war and said it would
end... but now my children are still living through war."Residents of the
Christian border towns refuse to leave, believing they will remain safe from
Israeli fire. However, residents of Alma al-Shaab, a town in the Tyre district,
were forced to evacuate last week under Israeli orders, the reason for which
remains unclear. In Ain Ebel's cemetery, Jallad caresses her son's tombstone,
surrounded by women trying to comfort her. "I won't leave... let them bury me
next to my son," she said. "Why would we leave? We are not fighting anyone. We
are not fighting it (Israel) nor are we fighting them (Hezbollah). They are the
ones fighting us."
Turkey condemns Israeli ground operation in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
Turkey on Monday condemned Israel's ground operation in Lebanon, cautioning
against "another humanitarian catastrophe" unfolding in the Middle East. "We
firmly condemn the Israeli ground operation in Lebanon, which is worsening
instability in the region," the foreign ministry said in a statement. "The
implementation by the (Benjamin) Netanyahu government of genocidal and
collective punishment policies, this time in Lebanon, will lead to yet another
humanitarian catastrophe in the region," it said.
Berri to meet Aoun, Paris presses him on 'Shiite
negotiator'
Naharnet/March 16/2026
Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri will vis Newsdesk 10 hours agoit the Baabda
Palace this week and the files of negotiations with Israel and the appointment
of a Shiite member to the negotiating delegation will be the focus of his
meeting with President Joseph Aoun, the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported on
Monday. Political sources told the daily that Aoun will insist on the nomination
process being completed as quickly as possible so that Lebanon be prepared
should Israel give the green light. Nidaa al-Watan also said that "Berri's
reluctance to nominate the Shiite member of the negotiating delegation with
Israel will be the central topic of his meeting this (Monday) morning in Ain al-Tineh
with French Ambassador Hervé Magro.""The French message, framed as an advice,
will emphasize the need to expedite the nomination of the Shiite figure, as time
is not on Lebanon's side," the daily said.
The newspaper added that all the atmosphere surrounding the negotiations is
negative and the situation is deadlocked, seeing as the "Israelis believe that
the time is not yet right and their priority is to disarm Hezbollah."Berri is
meanwhile "still insisting on his position of refusing to name a Shiite member
to the delegation," the daily said.
Charges filed against 4 Hezbollah members for carrying arms
and missiles
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
State Commissioner to the Military Court, Judge Claude Ghanem, on Monday filed
charges against four more Hezbollah members for possessing and transporting
military weapons, media reports said. Two of them had been arrested in Ashrafieh,
where guns and rifles were found inside their car. According to initial
investigations, they were heading south, Al-Jadeed TV said. The two other
members were also indicted on felony charges after an army search at a
checkpoint in the southern town of Kfarhouna revealed the presence of weapons
and 21 122mm rockets inside a van they were traveling in, which was also heading
toward the southern border, Al-Jadeed added. Lebanese authorities have been
seeking to pressure Hezbollah after Lebanon was drawn into the Middle East war
on March 2 when the Tehran-backed group's attack on Israel in response to the
killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli
strikes. A judicial official told AFP that the judge has referred the case "to
the first investigating judge in Beirut... requesting they be questioned and
arrest warrants issued."Earlier this month, three Hezbollah members were
released on bail of around $20 each after being questioned in the military court
over the possession of unlicensed military weapons, in a move that sparked
controversy and anger.Beirut banned Hezbollah's military and security activities
this month after its attack on Israel triggered the latest war. Israel has since
launched broad air raids on Lebanon and ground incursions into border areas, and
its army said on Monday that it had begun "targeted ground operations against
key Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon".Last year in the wake of a 2024
ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanese authorities committed to
disarming the group, and the army had been doing so in the area near the Israeli
border before the latest hostilities erupted.
Hezbollah says launched rockets, drones at north Israel city
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
Hezbollah said it launched an attack on Monday targeting the northern Israeli
city of Nahariya, where Israeli first responders reported a man was wounded.
Hezbollah said in a statement that its fighters targeted Nahariya "with a
barrage of rockets and a swarm of attack drones". Israel's Magen David Adom
first responders said that paramedics in the area were treating a man "in mild
to moderate condition suffering from blast injuries".
Lebanon registers more than one million displaced in
Israel-Hezbollah war
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
Lebanese authorities on Monday said more than one million people had registered
as displaced since war erupted on March 2 between Israel and Hezbollah.
A statement said the number of displaced people who had registered their names
on a website affiliated with the social affairs ministry had reached 1,049,328,
with 132,742 of them staying in more than 600 collective shelters.
Germany says Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon an 'error'
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Monday that an Israeli ground offensive
in Lebanon was an "error" which would "further exacerbate the already highly
tense humanitarian situation" in the country. "We urgently call on our Israeli
friends: Do not take this path -- it would be an error," Merz said after Israeli
military announced what it described as "limited ground operations" in Lebanon.
Hezbollah clashes with Israeli forces trying to enter south
Lebanon
Naharnet/March 16/2026
Hezbollah said it targeted overnight Israeli troops in Khiam, Odaisseh and al-Taybeh.
It also targeted troops and bases in the occupied Golan and north of Kfar Yuval
in the Galilee Panhandle of northern Israel.Troops were also trying to enter
Lebanese territories from the southern border towns of Yaroun and Maroun al-Ras,
state-run National News Agency said.Hezbollah published Monday a video of its
fighters attacking troops in a Merkava tank on the outskirts of the southern
border town of Markaba with guided missiles. The Israeli army had said it sent
additional ground troops into Lebanon for what it called a "limited and targeted
operation."Military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said the latest deployment
is meant to defend Israeli border communities against attacks from Hezbollah.
Shoshani said Israel carried out artillery and airstrikes on multiple sites
before sending in the troops.Earlier in the war, Israel beefed up the presence
of ground troops inside Lebanon in what it says is an attempt to prevent attacks
on its northern border towns.On Sunday night, Hezbollah targeted the Meron air
base with a swarm of drones and attacked Kiryat Shmona, and Avivim with two
salvos of missiles.
Foreign Ministry slams Hezbollah over shooting at UNIFIL
Associated Press/March 16/2026
In a Monday statement, the ministry recalled the government’s decision which
prohibits “the military and security activities of Hezbollah.”It added that the
ministry’s position in the matter is clear in which “no armed group operating
outside the authority of the state” will be permitted to draw Lebanon further
into instability in service of agendas that run counter to Lebanon’s national
interests. The ministry was apparently referring to Iran, Hezbollah’s main
backer.The U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon known as UNIFIL said Sunday that
peacekeepers were fired upon, “likely by non-state armed groups” on three
separate occasions while conducting patrols around their bases in three villages
in southern Lebanon. The U.N. peacekeeping force did not say Hebzollah was
behind the attacks.
Displaced Lebanese 'will not return' until north Israel
secure, Katz says
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Monday that Lebanese displaced by
fighting with Hezbollah would not be allowed to return home until the north of
Israel was secure. "Hundreds of thousands of Shia residents of southern Lebanon
who have evacuated and are evacuating their homes from southern Lebanon and
Beirut will not return to their homes south of the Litani area until the safety
of residents in the north is guaranteed," Katz told military top brass according
to a statement. The Israeli military has repeatedly said it would not evacuate
Israelis from northern parts of the country, as it had done in the previous 2024
war. During that conflict, Israel evacuated tens of thousands of residents from
northern communities until a ceasefire was struck in November 2024.Despite that
ceasefire, Israel had conducted near-daily air strikes on Lebanon. In recent
days, Hezbollah and Iran have launched coordinated rocket and missile attacks
against Israel. Lebanese authorities said on Sunday the death toll from Israeli
attacks had reached 850 during the current war, while more than 830,000 people
had registered as displaced. Israel, meanwhile, said no direct talks were
planned with Lebanon to end the
Herzog says French offer to mediate with Lebanon 'very positive'
Agence France Presse/March 16/2026
Israeli President Isaac Herzog told AFP on Monday that an offer by French leader
Emmanuel Macron to host direct talks with Lebanon was "a very positive
development"."I think it's very important that there should be talks," Herzog
said in an interview with AFP at his Jerusalem residence. "Talks are very
important, because it's about time we have an opportunity of moving forward with
Lebanon," he said. So far the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has given no public indication that talks with Beirut are on the
table. Israeli officials have repeatedly railed against the Lebanese authorities
for what they say are failures to honour a commitment to disarm Hezbollah.
Herzog also said that Europe should back Israel's fight against Hezbollah, as
Israeli forces carried out ground operations in Lebanon. "Europe should support
any effort, any effort, to eradicate Hezbollah now," Herzog said. "They should
understand that if you want to get anywhere, sometimes you need to win war," he
added.
5 Western leaders urge against 'significant' Israeli ground op in Lebanon
Agence France PresseMarch 16/2026
The leaders of five Western countries said in a joint statement Monday that a
large-scale Israeli ground operation in Lebanon "must be averted." "A
significant Israeli ground offensive would have devastating humanitarian
consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict," said the joint statement
from the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. The
statement said that the leaders were "gravely concerned by the escalating
violence in Lebanon" and called for "meaningful engagement by Israeli and
Lebanese representatives to negotiate a sustainable political solution." Earlier
on Monday Israel's military said it had launched "limited" ground operations
against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.The leaders' statement said that "the
humanitarian situation in Lebanon, including ongoing mass displacement, is
already deeply alarming." "We condemn Hezbollah's decision to join Iran in
hostilities," the statement said, adding: "We stand in solidarity with the
Lebanese government and people, who have been unwillingly drawn into conflict."
"Hezbollah's attacks on Israel and the targeting of civilians must cease and
they must disarm," they said.
Kuwait
Announces Dismantling of a Cell Linked to Hezbollah, Including Kuwaitis and
Lebanese
Janoubia/March 16, 2026
The Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior announced the discovery and arrest of a group
it described as "terrorist," belonging to the banned Hezbollah organization,
following intensive security monitoring and surveillance operations carried out
by the relevant authorities. During a media briefing by the Government
Communication Center regarding the current situation in the country, the
official spokesperson for the Ministry of Interior, Brigadier General Nasser
Bouslaib, stated that security investigations uncovered an organized sabotage
plot orchestrated by members of this group, aimed at destabilizing the country's
security and recruiting individuals to join the organization. Bouslaib explained
that the cell comprised 14 Kuwaiti citizens and two Lebanese nationals, and that
it sought to undermine the country's sovereignty, destabilize it, spread chaos,
and disrupt public order. He pointed out that after obtaining legal permission
from the Public Prosecution, a number of items were seized from the cell
members, including firearms, ammunition, a weapon used in assassinations, in
addition to Morse coded communication devices, drones, flags and pictures
related to terrorist organizations, as well as maps, narcotics, sums of money,
and weapons intended for training.
Lebanon war intensifies as IDF strikes harder and Hezbollah
escalates attacks
David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/March 16/2026
The renewed Lebanon war, now just over a week old, has witnessed a gradual
intensification of attacks by Israel and Hezbollah between March 8 and 11, with
both sides making clear their current disinterest in de-escalation or a
ceasefire. Hezbollah has expressed its commitment to continue fighting,
including by pledging loyalty to Iran’s new supreme leader, and Israel has
intensified its operations as part of what it expects to be a long war.
Simultaneously, the government of Lebanon has yet to match its pronouncements
regarding disarming Hezbollah with equally tough enforcement, and the Lebanese
Armed Forces (LAF) has openly defied Beirut’s orders to do so. Map instructions:
Click the top-left icon or an icon on the map to open the Map Key and adjust the
map’s zoom as desired. Click the top-right icon to open a larger version of the
map.
Lebanese government inaction continues as the military defies Beirut’s order to
disarm Hezbollah
Lebanese officials have continued expressing their strong displeasure with
Hezbollah’s decision to reignite the conflict with Israel and defiance of
Beirut’s orders to stand down and disarm. On March 8, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam
declared Lebanon’s readiness to resume negotiations with Israel while
reiterating that Hezbollah’s military activities “were no longer tolerable.”
Salam, however, did say that the state would not seek confrontation with the
group.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun was even blunter the next day, issuing two
statements criticizing Hezbollah for violating its commitment to neutrality and
“seeking Lebanon’s collapse through war and chaos” while calling on the LAF to
seize its weapons. He also called for direct Israeli-Lebanese negotiations,
under international auspices, with the narrow goal of achieving a durable
ceasefire and security arrangements rather than a durable peace and
normalization of relations.
Several Lebanese officials have also explicitly accused Hezbollah of launching
the March 1 attack on the Royal Air Force Base in Akrotiri, Cyprus.
These Lebanese government statements, however, have been coupled with little
practical follow-through. In part, this inaction owes to the decision of the LAF
to defy Beirut’s orders under instruction by Commander Rodolphe Haykal.
In a February meeting with US Senator Lindsey Graham, Haykal declined to
describe Hezbollah as a terrorist organization absent such a prior declaration
by the Lebanese government. However, Beirut’s March 2 ban on Hezbollah’s
military activities and orders to the LAF to pursue the group’s disarmament have
had little impact on Haykal, who has used “the Israeli aggression on Lebanon and
its citizenry” to justify the LAF’s continued inaction. Implicitly addressing
the government, Haykal said:
The [LAF’s] Command adopts [its own] decisions in accordance with the current
complex circumstances, prioritizing preserving both Lebanon and its unity and
the military establishment […] which exerts every effort to maintain domestic
stability and unity. The army stands at an equal distance from all Lebanese and
deals with them from its position as a focal point of national consensus.
Haykal added that this “sensitive juncture” meant that the solution—implicitly
to the question of Hezbollah’s arms—“is not military alone,” instead requiring a
“coordination and integration” of the LAF’s efforts with “various political and
official levels to strengthen national unity and overcome challenges.” This
statement, implicitly stating that the LAF would not confront Hezbollah,
effectively reiterated Haykal’s reported position during a March 2 session of
the Lebanese cabinet.
In practice, this refusal has led to the reversal of even the minimal action the
LAF took last week to advance the Lebanese state’s monopoly over arms. For
example, Al Arabiya reported that Lebanon’s Military Tribunal has released
detained alleged Hezbollah fighters on $20 bail. Presumably, these released
detainees were from among the 27 gunmen that the LAF said it arrested last week
as they crossed its checkpoints.
Underscoring growing Lebanese paralysis, Lebanon’s parliament delayed May’s
legislative elections by two years while Beirut continued looking for foreign
solutions to its predicament. For example, Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi, known
for his hawkish pronouncements on Hezbollah, called on the Vatican to pressure
Israel to halt operations in south Lebanon’s Christian villages. Meanwhile, the
impact of the war in Lebanon has continued to grow. Almost 700,000 Lebanese have
been internally displaced over the past week, with over 100,000 in organized
shelters. As of the time of this writing, 634 Lebanese citizens have been killed
and 1,586 wounded since the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumed.
Lebanon’s Health Ministry is not publicly separating civilians from fighters in
the overall casualty count, and Hezbollah is, characteristically, not officially
announcing its dead. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), in its latest claims on
the matter, has estimated that it has killed 190–200 militants from Hezbollah
and other groups in Lebanon.
Hezbollah shows no signs of backing down
Hezbollah, which spent months preparing for this conflict, has remained defiant.
This sentiment was expressed most clearly by Mohammad Raad, who heads the
group’s Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, on March 9. Raad defended
Hezbollah’s decision to keep fighting and attacked the Lebanese government’s
recent decision to call for the group’s disarmament. He said that Hezbollah’s
inaction during 15 months of ongoing Israeli attacks, coupled with Lebanon’s
effort to monopolize arms, had only invited more demands and aggression from
Israel.
Raad also reiterated Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s March 4 claim
that the group’s opening salvo on March 2 had not ignited the renewed conflict
but was a warning stripping Israel of the element of surprise and preempting a
broader, premeditated attack. He also insisted that “resistance remains the only
option.” Qassem, meanwhile, sent recently elected Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba
Khamenei a letter declaring Hezbollah’s continued “covenantal commitment” to the
Islamic Republic under his leadership.
On the domestic front, Hezbollah’s Lawyers Union described any attempt to arrest
the group’s fighters as “high treason.” Additionally, The Jerusalem Post,
quoting an anonymous informed source, reported that Hezbollah had instructed its
members to confront any LAF attempt to impede the group’s military operations or
activities.
Hezbollah’s military actions have matched its defiant rhetoric. The group has
intensified rocket attacks against Israel, firing more frequent and larger
salvos at the northern part of the country, and claimed repeated direct clashes
with Israeli ground troops in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has also claimed
attacks fired deeper into Israel using “sophisticated weapons”—a possible
euphemism for precision-guided missiles.
Israel expects an extended conflict in Lebanon
Israel has confirmed that weapons fired by Hezbollah have reached the country’s
center. On March 9, Hezbollah missiles fired at Gush Dan lightly wounded sixteen
people. As of the time of this writing, no Israelis have been killed by
Hezbollah attacks.
The IDF clarified the next day that an “isolated failure” allowed two Hezbollah
missiles to impact central Israel without interceptions or warning sirens.
Meanwhile, Israel’s assessment that Hezbollah and Iran are not coordinating
attacks appears to be changing, with Reuters, quoting an unnamed “senior Israeli
defence official,” saying that Hezbollah and Iran carried out their “first
coordinated attack” since the start of the war on the evening of March 11.
These developments are only likely to harden the Israeli assessment that the
conflict with Hezbollah will likely outlast the war with Iran. Addressing the
Lebanon front, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet on March 11,
“We are not close to the end.”
Israel has also intensified its campaign in Lebanon while widening its
geographical footprint. Hezbollah’s nerve center in Beirut’s southern suburbs
remains in Israeli crosshairs. However, the Israeli Air Force has also carried
out targeted killings in other, previously immune, areas of Lebanon’s capital.
On March 8, Israeli aircraft targeted a room in the Ramada Plaza Hotel building
in Rawsheh, which is in predominantly Sunni west Beirut. The IDF claimed its
targets were “key commanders in the Iranian IRGC’s Quds Force’s Lebanon Corps in
Beirut” who were operating in Lebanon. It later named them as commanders from
both the Lebanon and Palestine Corps:
Majid Hosseini, the official responsible for the Lebanon Corps’ funds transfers,
including to Hezbollah
Alireza Biazar, the Lebanon Corps’ head of intelligence
Ahmad Rasouli, an intelligence officer with the Palestine Corps
Hossein Ahmadlou, a Lebanon Corps intelligence operative responsible for
collecting intelligence on Israel
Abu Ahmad Ali, a clear nom de guerre for Hezbollah’s representative to the
Palestine Corps
Iran’s UN Ambassador has confirmed the deaths of the first four figures.
On March 11, Israel conducted another targeted killing in West Beirut, this time
in the predominantly working-class Sunni neighborhood of Aysha Bakkar.
Conflicting reports indicate that the target was Hamas member Ahmad Abdallah or
an office belonging to the Islamic Group, the Lebanese branch of the Muslim
Brotherhood. Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are known to cooperate and even
have an overlap in operatives, which may explain the contradictory reports. The
Islamic Group reportedly denied its offices had been targeted. In addition to
its expansion of airstrikes, the IDF has also reportedly widened the footprint
of its ground forces in southern Lebanon. However, the conflict has yet to
become a full ground incursion.
American disinterest in Lebanese pronouncements continues
The United States reportedly remains unmoved by Lebanese officials’ requests for
it to intervene with Israel on Lebanon’s behalf. Reports indicate that US
Ambassador Tom Barrack, who had previously handled the Lebanon file, bluntly
rebuffed Lebanese government entreaties to mediate with Israel. There would be
nothing relevant to discuss, Barrack said, unless Lebanon “stop[s] with the
bullshit” on disarming Hezbollah. US President Donald Trump sounded a softer
note on March 11.
“We love Lebanon. We love the people of Lebanon, and we’re working very hard.
We’ve gotta get rid of … Hezbollah has been a disaster for many years,” Trump
said.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/03/analysis-lebanon-war-intensifies-as-idf-strikes-harder-and-hezbollah-escalates-attacks.php
**David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.
The War on Hezbollah-The Iranian Terrorist Proxy Continues/LCCC website
The just war being waged by the United States and Israel against Iran and its
proxies—devils, terrorists, drug traffickers, and mafia networks—continues
relentlessly and will not stop before their complete defeat.
To follow the news, below are- links to several
important news websites:
National News Agency (Lebanon)
https://www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar
Nidaa Al Watan
https://www.nidaalwatan.com/
MTV Lebanon
https://www.mtv.com.lb/
Voice of Lebanon
https://www.vdl.me/
Asas Media
https://asasmedia.com/
Naharnet
https://www.naharnet.com/
Al Markazia News Agency
https://almarkazia.com/ar
LBCI (English)
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/en
LBCI (Arabic)
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/ar
Janoubia Website
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/ar
Kataeb Party Official Website
https://www.kataeb.org
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published
on March 16-17/2026
Trump on Iran: We Don’t Know Their Leaders
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
President Donald Trump said on Monday that he believes Iran wants to make a deal
to end the US-Israeli conflict with Tehran but that it is unclear who is
actually leading Iran. "We don't know who their leader
is. We have people wanting to negotiate. We have no idea who they are,"
Trump told reporters during a White House event. After Iran's supreme leader,
Ali Khamenei, was killed in the initial strikes of the war, Tehran announced his
son, Mojtaba Khamenei, had been named as his successor. Pentagon chief Pete
Hegseth said last week the new leader was believed to have been wounded in a
strike. He has not been seen publicly. "A lot of people are saying that he's
badly disfigured. They're saying that he lost his leg ... and he's been hurt
very badly. Other people are saying he's dead," Trump said.
Oman has attempted multiple times to open a line of communication between
the United States and Iran, but the White House made it clear it is not
interested at this juncture, Reuters reported on Saturday.
Western allies push back on Trump call for NATO help to
reopen Hormuz
Agence France Presse//March 16/2026
NATO allies and other Western nations pushed back Monday on U.S. President
Donald Trump's demand that military alliance members help reopen the Strait of
Hormuz, the critical conduit for crude oil Iran has effectively closed. UK Prime
Minister Keir Starmer said London was working with allies to craft a "viable"
plan to reopen the strategic waterway but ruled out a NATO mission, while Berlin
insisted it "has been clear at all times that this war is not a matter for
NATO". "There was never a joint decision on whether to intervene. That is why
the question of how Germany might contribute militarily does not arise. We will
not do so," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Poland, Spain, Greece and Sweden
were among the other European nations to distance themselves from any military
involvement in the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of Trump's call. Japan and
Australia voiced similar sentiments earlier Monday, with Canberra saying it
would not be sending a navy ship to the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump: show 'enthusiasm'
Trump over the weekend called on countries including China, France, Japan, South
Korea and Britain to send warships to escort tankers through the strait, warning
refusing would be "very bad for the future of NATO". And he stepped up pressure
again on Monday saying he expected Britain and France to help secure shipping in
the key waterway, and criticizing U.S. allies for their lukewarm response. "We
strongly encourage the other nations to get involved with us and get involved
quickly and with great enthusiasm," he said, adding he believed Britain would
get involved in a Hormuz mission. Oil prices jumped after the strait was closed
and remained on Monday above $100 per barrel as the Iran war moved into a third
week. The volatility further underlined the importance of ensuring safe passage
for tankers through the vital transport route. Starmer, who had faced stinging
criticism from Trump over Britain's refusal to join the U.S. and Israel in
offensive attacks on Iran, told reporters he had discussed the waterway with the
U.S. leader Sunday. "We're working with all of our allies, including our
European partners, to bring together a viable collective plan that can restore
freedom of navigation in the region as quickly as possible and ease the economic
impacts," he said in Downing Street. "Let me be clear: that won't be, and it's
never been envisioned to be, a NATO mission," Starmer said, while also stressing
Britain "will not be drawn into the wider war."That'll have to be an alliance of
partners," he added of any Strait of Hormuz mission.
'Difficult' -
A NATO official noted that members "have already stepped up to provide
additional security in the Mediterranean". "We are aware that individual allies
are talking with the U.S. and others on what more they might do, including in
the context of security in the Strait of Hormuz," the official told AFP.
Following Trump's demand for military support, some European countries sought to
appear open-minded while remaining non-committal. "We
did not want this war. From day one, we have called for de-escalation,"
Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen told Danish media in Brussels
before an EU foreign ministers' meeting. "That said, I believe we need to keep
an open mind and look at how we can contribute," he said, describing the
situation as "very, very serious". Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told the
country's ANP press agency that it would be "very difficult to launch a
successful mission there in the short-term".
Trump says Iran wants to make a deal
Al Arabiya English/1 6 March/2026
US President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran wants to make a deal and they
are “talking to our people.” Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump
then said the United States does not know the new Iranian leaders. “All their
leaders are dead. We don’t even know who we are dealing with,” he added.During
remarks from the White House, Trump said the US military had struck more than
7,000 targets across Iran since the start of the war. He also said more than 100
Iranian naval vessels had been sunk or destroyed as well as three missile and
drone manufacturing sites in Iran on Monday.
Asked about the Strait of Hormuz being blocked by Iran, Trump called on other
countries, including Japan, China, South Korea and those in Europe to help.
“Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that
we’ve helped for many, any years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside
sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters
to me,” Trump said.
Direct US-Iran contact resumes, Tehran signals interest in
ending war: Report
Al Arabiya English/17 March/2026
A direct communications channel between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, Axios
reported on Monday, citing a US official and a source with knowledge of the
matter. It is unclear how substantive the exchanges between Araghchi and Witkoff
have been, but they mark the first known direct communication between the two
sides since the war began more than two weeks ago, the report said. Araghchi
sent text messages to Witkoff focusing on ending the war, Axios reported, citing
the US official and the source. At the same time, the US official told Axios
that Washington “is not talking” to Tehran. US President Donald Trump said on
Monday that Iran wants to make a deal and that they are “talking to our people.”
Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said the United States does not
know Iran’s new leadership. “All their leaders are dead. We don’t even know who
we are dealing with,” he said. Iranian officials have publicly claimed in recent
days that they are not engaged in any ceasefire negotiations with the Trump
administration. They say Iran is not interested in a temporary ceasefire that
would allow the United States and Israel to regroup and launch new attacks, but
instead wants guarantees that any peace deal would be permanent.
Egypt rejects and condemns Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia,
al-Sisi tells MBS
Al Arabiya English/17 March/2026
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi held a phone call on Monday with Saudi
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss ongoing developments in the region.
According to a statement from Egypt’s presidency, al-Sisi began the call by
reaffirming Egypt’s full support and solidarity with Saudi Arabia amid the
current developments in the Middle East. He stressed Egypt’s firm rejection and
condemnation of Iranian attacks on the Kingdom. Al-Sisi emphasized the need to
respect the sovereignty of all Arab countries and the resources of their
peoples. Presidential spokesman Mohammed al-Shenawy said al-Sisi also reviewed
Egypt’s ongoing contacts with regional and international parties aimed at
reducing regional tensions, stressing the “shared destiny” linking Egypt and the
Gulf states and noting that their national security is “inseparable.”The
Egyptian president also praised the efforts undertaken by Saudi Arabia under the
leadership of King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to preserve
regional stability and contain the current escalation.
The spokesman said the Saudi Crown Prince, for his part, expressed appreciation
for Egypt’s supportive stance toward the Kingdom, emphasizing the “historic and
brotherly” ties between the two countries. He also praised Egypt’s role in
working to preserve stability in Arab states. The spokesman added that the call
also addressed ways to strengthen joint Arab efforts to confront the challenges
facing Arab countries and to reinforce the concept of Arab national security.
The two sides also agreed to continue consultations between their governments in
order to support security and stability in the region.
Saudi source denies NYT report claiming Kingdom encouraging
prolonged Iran war
Al Arabiya English/16 March/2026
A Saudi source told Al Arabiya on Monday that a report by The New York Times
claiming the Kingdom’s leadership is encouraging a prolonged war with Iran is
false. This comes after The New York Times claimed in
a report on Sunday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had been advising
US President Donald Trump “to keep hitting the Iranians hard.”Earlier this
month, the Saudi embassy in Washington also denied a report by The Washington
Post claiming the Kingdom had been privately lobbying Trump to strike Iran.
Saudi Arabia was among the Gulf countries working to avert a military
confrontation in the region and publicly said it would not be part of any
potential war.
Strike kills six Iraqi fighters near Syria border
Al Arabiya English/16 March/2026
A strike on Monday near Iraq’s western border with Syria killed six fighters
from the former paramilitary coalition al-Hashed al-Shaabi, the alliance said.
The fighters from the alliance – also known as the Popular Mobilization
Forces (PMF), now part of Iraq’s regular army – were struck by a “Zionist
bombing” that targeted “an official security position belonging to al-Hashed
al-Shaabi.”Another four fighters were wounded, the group added in its statement.
Al-Hashed al-Shaabi is an alliance of paramilitaries and factions created
in 2014 to fight ISIS, and is now integrated into the Iraqi armed forces.
Iran-backed groups have brigades that operate within the alliance, but have a
reputation for acting on their own. Earlier, an official with the group told AFP
that the attack hit a checkpoint, blaming the United States. He said the
checkpoint, which also housed army and police personnel, was targeted again when
ambulances arrived to help victims. Since the start of the Middle East war on
February 28, bases belonging to al-Hashed al-Shaabi have been hit several times,
with strikes mostly targeting US-blacklisted Tehran-backed armed
groups.Al-Hashed al-Shaabi denounced the “repeated aggressions” against its
forces.
Iraq has recently regained a sense of stability following years of conflict, and
was unwillingly drawn into the current Middle East war after having long been a
proxy battleground between the US and Iran. These groups are also united under a
loose alliance called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which has claimed attacks
against US bases in Iraq.With AF
US ‘fine’ with some ships getting through Strait of Hormuz,
Bessent says
Reuters/16 March/2026
The United States is “fine” with some Iranian, Indian and Chinese ships going
through the Strait of Hormuz for now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on
Monday, adding that any action to mitigate higher prices would depend on how
long the Iran war lasts.
“We are seeing more and more of the fuel ships start to go through. The Iranian
ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the
rest of the world. We’ve seen Indian ships go out now ... we believe some
Chinese ships have gone out,” he told CNBC in an interview. “That should start
ramping up before there are any of the flotillas or protective armadas in the
Gulf. So we think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are
letting out. And for now, we’re fine with that. We want the world to be well
supplied,” Bessent said. Asked if there were any tools the Trump administration
would use to mitigate higher prices and impacts from the war outside of oil
reserve releases, Bessent told CNBC “it will depend on the duration of the
conflict.”
Europeans Seek Clarity
About Trump’s Iran War Aims Before Agreeing to His Warship Demands
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
European countries on Monday sought more details about US President Donald
Trump's plans for the war on Iran and warned that NATO must not become involved
it, as they weighed whether to agree to his call to send warships to help shore
up security in the Gulf. The cool response to Trump’s
demand reflects wide caution about the US-Israeli war among allies kept in the
dark before, and largely since, it was launched on Feb. 28.
Trump has asked partners, including France, China, Japan, South Korea and
Britain, to help secure the Strait of Hormuz for global shipping. He said the
United States was talking to “about seven” countries, but he wouldn’t say which
ones and gave no indication of when such a coalition might be formed. UK Prime
Minister Keir Starmer insisted Britain “will not be drawn into the wider war,”
and said British troops should only be sent into action that is legal and has “a
proper thought-through plan.” But his country is considering other forms of help
in conjunction with allies. In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump also
warned that “if there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it
will be very bad for the future of NATO.”German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said
that “NATO is a defensive alliance, not an interventionist one. And that is
precisely why NATO has no business being involved here.” He said he hopes that
NATO allies “will treat one another with the necessary respect within the
alliance.” Merz agreed that “this Iranian regime must come to an end,” but he
said that "based on all the experience we have gained in previous years and
decades, bombing it into submission is, in all likelihood, not the right
approach.”
EU debates Trump's demand
Many are keen to know when the war will end. At a meeting in Brussels, where
European Union foreign ministers gathered to discuss Trump's demand, German
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said it's important for the US and Israel to
define “when they consider the military aims of their deployment to have been
reached.”“We need more clarity here,” Wadephul told reporters. Estonian Foreign
Minister Margus Tsahkna also said that US allies in Europe want to understand
Trump’s “strategic goals. What will be the plan?”Polish Foreign Minister Radek
Sikorski invited the Trump administration to go through the proper channels. “If
there is a request via NATO, we will of course out of respect and sympathy for
our American allies consider it very carefully,” he said. Sikorski made a
reference to Article 4 of NATO's founding treaty, which allies can invoke if
they believe their territory or security is under threat.
Acting in Europe's interests
Still, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that “it is in our interest to
keep the Strait of Hormuz open."Kallas had urged the 27 member countries to
expand the EU's Operation Aspides naval mission to protect shipping in the Red
Sea up into the Persian Gulf. But after chairing the meeting, she said there had
been “no appetite” to boost its mandate. But Kallas
said the EU would closely monitor threats to maritime security also in the Red
Sea, where Aspides operates with three warships. “The risk that the Houthis get
involved is real. So we must remain vigilant,” she said. Yemen’s Iran-backed
Houthi militants have so far remained on the sidelines of the war even as it has
spread across the Middle East, raising questions about why, and perhaps when,
the battle-hardened militants might join the fight. It
was not immediately clear whether some European countries might go it alone and
form a “coalition of the willing” to provide military support on an ad hoc
basis. The war in Iran has driven up energy prices worldwide, with Brent crude
up more than 40%. The conflict has also disrupted the wider global supply chain
beyond oil, affecting things like pharmaceuticals from India, semiconductors
from Asia and oil-derived products like fertilizers that come from the Middle
East. Cargo ships are stuck in the Gulf or making a much longer detour around
the southern tip of Africa. Planes carrying air cargo out of the Middle East are
grounded. And the longer the war drags on, the more likely that there will be
shortages and price increases on a wide range of goods. France has said it is
working with countries — French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned partners in
Europe, India and Asia — on a possible mission to escort ships through the
strait but has stressed it must be when “the circumstances permit,” when
fighting has subsided. French senior officials, speaking anonymously on ongoing
talks, said the Netherlands, Italy and Greece had shown interest and that Spain
might be involved in some way. Starmer said Britain is discussing with the US
and allies in Europe and the Gulf the possibility of using its mine-hunting
drones already in the region.
Middle East War ‘Not a Matter for NATO’, Says Germany’s Merz
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday said the war in the Middle East started by
US-Israeli strikes on Iran was "not a matter for NATO" and Germany would not be
taking part in it. "It has been clear at all times
that this war is not a matter for NATO," Merz said, adding that the US and
Israel "did not consult us prior to this war". "There was never a joint decision
on whether to intervene. That is why the question of how Germany might
contribute militarily does not arise. We will not do so," Merz said at a press
conference alongside his Dutch counterpart Rob Jetten. US President Donald Trump
on Sunday called for nations including South Korea, France, China and Britain to
help ensure safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has declared closed
to US and US-allied traffic. He later upped the pressure on NATO allies, telling
the Financial Times newspaper that the alliance faced a "very bad" future if its
members did not do their bit to reopen the strait. Merz ruled out Germany
sending ships to the Strait of Hormuz. "For as long as the war continues, we
will not be involved in ensuring free passage in the Strait of Hormuz by
military means," he said. Merz's spokesman Stefan
Kornelius earlier also said the war had "nothing to do with NATO"."NATO is an
alliance for the defense of territory" and "the mandate to deploy NATO is
lacking", Kornelius told a regular press briefing. At a separate briefing on
Monday, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany wanted all those involved
to prevent "further military escalation"."There will be no military
participation" from Germany but Berlin is prepared to support diplomatic efforts
to "to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz", he said. "We have a
situation which we did not provoke... This war started without any
consultations," Pistorius added. Germany's main responsibility is "for the
eastern flank and the high north", he said, and "we stay committed to that but
we can't be anywhere in the world". "What does Donald Trump expect from a
handful of European frigates in the Strait of Hormuz that the mighty US navy
cannot manage alone? This is the question I find myself asking," Pistorius said.
Israel Police Say Shrapnel from Missiles, Interceptors Fell
in Jerusalem Holy Sites
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
Israeli police said they found missile and interceptor fragments at holy sites
in Jerusalem's Old City on Monday, including areas near the Al-Aqsa Mosque and
the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. "During the recent missile salvo fired from
Iran toward Jerusalem, several intercepts occurred over the city," the police
said. Following the interceptions, police located "fragments of missiles and
interceptor debris, some of significant size, at multiple sites in the Old City,
including the Temple Mount complex, the Church of the Holy Sepulcher complex,
and the Jewish Quarter", they added. The force shared photos showing debris on a
roof near the Holy Sepulcher church, a cordon set up in the Al-Aqsa Mosque
compound and the smashed windscreen of a car. "This incident underscores that
the enemy does not distinguish between religions or places of worship --
synagogues, mosques, or churches," the police statement said. The Old City is
located in east Jerusalem, which Israel occupied in 1967 and later annexed in a
move that is not internationally recognized. It houses the Al-Aqsa Mosque,
Islam's third holiest site; the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, where Christians
hold that Christ was crucified, entombed and resurrected; and the Western Wall,
considered the holiest site where Jews are allowed to pray. AFP journalists also
saw missile debris that had hit the roof of a residential building in east
Jerusalem. A cylinder about one meter in diameter and several meters long
protruded from the tiled roof of the three-story building as first responders
inspected the damage.No injuries or deaths were reported in Jerusalem.
WHO Says Six Hospitals Evacuated in Iran, System Holding Up
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
A World Health Organization official said on Monday that the US-Israeli war on
Iran had led to the evacuation of six hospitals but that so far the system
appeared to be holding up and authorities had not sought emergency relief from
the WHO. "The primary healthcare and the health infrastructure of Iran is quite
good and robust, and they're able to accommodate the casualties as of now,"
WHO regional director Hanan Balkhy told Reuters.
Iran's ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, said on Monday that more
than 1,300 people had been killed in Iran since the conflict began on February
28, and more than 7,000 had been injured. The WHO, which has an office in
Tehran and regularly helps Iranian authorities with disease management, has
verified 18 attacks on healthcare facilities and the killing of eight medics.
Balkhy said the WHO had contingency plans to move in emergency supplies should
the situation deteriorate further. One potential risk is that "black rain"
caused by toxic compounds carried in smoke from oil facilities that have been
set on fire puts an extra burden on the healthcare system through respiratory
infections, she added. The conflict had forced the WHO
to suspend flights carrying emergency medical supplies from its humanitarian hub
in Dubai, but Balkhy said these had now resumed.
Requests from 25 member countries are being processed, but a WHO spokesperson
said polio treatments were among those still waiting.
Strike Kills at Least Four Iraqi Fighters Near Syria Border
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
A strike on Monday near Iraq's western border with Syria killed at least four
fighters from a former coalition, two security officials said. The fighters from
the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), now part of Iraq's regular army -- "were
killed and three others were wounded" in the late afternoon attack on a
checkpoint at the entrance to the city of al-Qaim, a local security official
said, AFP reported. An official with the PMF, which includes pro-Iranian groups,
put the toll higher, at six dead, blaming the United States for the strike.
He said the checkpoint, which also housed army and police personnel, was
targeted again when ambulances arrived to help victims. Iraq has recently
regained a sense of stability following years of conflict, and was unwillingly
drawn into the current Middle East war after having long been a proxy
battleground between the US and Iran.Since the start of the Middle East war on
February 28, bases belonging to PMF have been hit several times, with strikes
mostly targeting Tehran-backed armed groups.These groups are also united under a
loose alliance called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which has claimed attacks
against US bases in Iraq.
Iraq Hopes to Ship Oil to Türkiye by Pipeline as War Cuts off Exports
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
Iraq is hoping to ship up to 250,000 barrels of oil per day to a port in Türkiye
via a rehabilitated pipeline, its oil minister said, after the US-Israeli war on
Iran cut off its main export route. The amount would be just a fraction of the
roughly 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) that Iraq exported before the
conflict, mostly through its southern Basra port and the Strait of Hormuz, where
traffic has been severely disrupted by the war.
Authorities want to restore an old pipeline -- out of service for years -- that
links the northern Kirkuk oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where the
oil could be shipped onwards to international buyers. Oil Minister Hayan Abdel
Ghani said late Sunday that the pipeline's rehabilitation is "complete, but
there is a 100-kilometer section that needs to be inspected". Teams will
"conduct a hydrostatic test, which is the final phase of the pipeline's
rehabilitation", hopefully "within a week", Ghani added, citing an export target
of roughly 250,000 bpd. The pipeline was damaged by the ISIS group in 2014.Its
use, however, requires "contact with the Turkish side and an agreement on
logistical and technical issues", said oil expert Assem Jihad. Initially,
Baghdad wanted to send exports to the Ceyhan port via another pipeline that runs
through Kurdistan. But "so far, no agreement has been reached", Ghani said, as
relations between the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan and the federal government in
Baghdad have deteriorated. He acknowledged that "Iraqi oil exports were halted
two or three days after the start of the war". The country is also considering
the possibility of transporting 200,000 bpd by tanker trucks, primarily via
Jordan and Syria. Iraq derives more than 90 percent of
its revenue from oil.Experts have warned that without this income, the state --
Iraq's largest employer -- will be unable to pay civil servants' salaries and
risks a foreign currency shortage to finance imports or stabilise its exchange
rate.
Why Iranian Drones Are Hard to Stop
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
Cheap and deadly, Iranian-designed Shahed drones have inflicted
major damage in the Middle East war, and have anti-jamming and other
capabilities that make them difficult to stop.
Offline navigation -
Designed to explode on impact, Shahed drones connect to GPS to register their
location shortly before or after takeoff, then typically turn off their
receivers, said Thomas Withington, a researcher at Britain's Royal United
Services Institute (RUSI). The drones then travel long
distances towards their target using gyroscopes that measure their speed,
direction and position -- known as an "inertial navigation system".
"GPS is going to get jammed by whatever is protecting the target,"
Withington told AFP."If you look at a map of GPS jamming at the moment in the
Middle East, you see that there's a lot of jamming... By not using the GPS, you
avoid that." The drones can then return to GPS just
before impact for a more precise strike, or remain offline. "It's not always
necessarily very accurate, but it's as accurate as it needs to be," said
Withington.
Anti-jamming mechanisms -
Russia has been making Shahed-style drones to use in its war in Ukraine.
The US-based Institute for Science and International Security found in 2023 that
those drones used "state-of-art antenna interference suppression" to remove
enemy jamming signals while preserving the desired GPS signal. Anti-jamming
mechanisms were found in the wreckage of an Iranian-made drone that struck
Cyprus in the opening days of the Middle East war, a European industry source
told AFP. "They have put (the Shahed) together using off-the-shelf parts, but it
has... many of the capabilities that US military GPS equipment has," Todd
Humphreys, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Texas at
Austin, told AFP. Defending against them now requires sophisticated electronic
warfare equipment.
"The Shaheds have been upgraded," said Ukrainian air force spokesman Yuriy
Ignat.
Stealth materials -
The Shahed is built from "lightweight radar-absorbing materials", such as
plastic and fiberglass, a 2023 RUSI paper said. Their small size and low
altitude allow them to slip through aerial defense systems.
- Other positioning systems? -
Some experts think Iran is using multiple positioning systems, making it easier
for its drones to dodge jamming. Serhii Beskrestnov, a technology adviser to the
Ukrainian defense ministry, said Iran is using the BeiDou system, a Chinese
rival to the US-developed GPS.
And the Russia-made version of Shaheds uses both BeiDou and the Russian
equivalent, GLONASS, he said. Others suspect Iran may be using LORAN, a radio
navigation system developed during World War II. LORAN, which does not require
satellites, largely fell out of use when GPS emerged. But Iran said in 2016 it
was reviving the technology, which requires a network of large ground-based
transmitters, though experts have not confirmed it is active today.
Counter-strategies
Militaries have mainly defended against Shaheds by shooting them down with
cannon fire, missiles and interceptor drones, with the United States and Israel
also developing lasers. But jamming can work, as
Ukraine has shown, as can "spoofing", which involves hacking into the drone's
navigation system to change its destination.Ukraine used electronic warfare to
neutralize 4,652 attack drones from mid-May to mid-July 2025 -- not far off the
number it shot down in the same period, 6,041, according to AFP analysis of
Ukrainian military data. Its experts insist that electronic and conventional
defenses are often used in tandem against the drones.
News of
the ongoing war between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other. The
news is abundant, fragmented, and difficult to keep track of as it evolves
constantly. For those wishing to follow the course of the war, the following are
links to several television channels and newspapers:
Asharq Al-Awsat Newspaper
https://aawsat.com/
National News Agency
https://www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar
Al Arabiya/Arabic
https://www.alarabiya.net/
Sky News
https://www.youtube.com/@SkyNewsArabia
Nidaa Al Watan
https://www.nidaalwatan.com/
Al Markazia
https://www.nidaalwatan.com/
Al Hadath
https://www.youtube.com/@AlHadath
Independent Arabia
https://www.independentarabia.com/
The Latest
LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 16-17/2026
Hamas
Crimes No One Talks About
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/March 16/2026
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22342/hamas-crimes-gaza
According to the Trump peace plan, announced late last year: "Hamas and other
factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly,
indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure,
including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not
rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the
supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons
permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning..."
The Trump administration and its newly established "Board of Peace," however,
have failed to call out Hamas for its ongoing breach of the terms of the
ceasefire plan. Hamas has evidently interpreted this silence as a green light to
pursue its effort to rearm, regroup and rebuild its regime by killing,
torturing, and economically squeezing the residents of the Gaza Strip.
"Hamas governs from within a shattered enclave of two million people. The Board
of Peace governs from a conference table in Washington. Hamas collects shekels
in taxes on smuggled goods; the Board has no independent revenue stream. Hamas
integrates 10,000 police personnel into proposed structures; the Board must
still wait for countries to commit personnel to a stabilization force. Hamas
appoints governors and mayors; the Board awaits reports." — Ranjan Solomon,
Middle East Monitor, March 10, 2026.
Hamas is rebuilding its financial machinery by collecting taxes, fees, and
customs charges on goods entering the Gaza Strip. The money is not being
invested in reconstruction. Instead, it is going toward rebuilding the terrorist
group's military capabilities.
The people in this photo are just some of many who have been executed, shot,
kidnapped, or brutally tortured in recent weeks. The list of atrocities grows by
the day, and the sheer sadism on display goes beyond anything comprehensible
(even for those of us who were born and raised in Gaza and saw Hamas's brutality
up close for years). We thought we had seen the floor of their depravity. There
is no floor for those people." — Gaza-born journalist Hamza Howidy, March 13,
2026.
"The 'crime' those people committed? Saying their own opinions. What makes this
even worse than the suffering of those victims itself is the silence of the
people who built entire careers screaming about Palestinian suffering... The
Palestinians left to die under Hamas's boots are apparently the wrong kind of
Palestinians, too inconvenient, too disruptive to the narrative, and too alive
in ways that don't serve 'the cause'" — Hamza Howidy, March 13, 2026.
"Hamas's fascist militias tortured my dear friend Ashraf Naser Shallah, who has
been in and out of hospitals in Gaza City over the past couple of days. They
took his phone, stole his wallet with critical documents, and threatened to kill
him if he continued to speak out against their terrorism, the Iranian regime,
the fraudulent 'resistance' narrative, the desire for peace with Israelis, and
his refusal to be cannon fodder in failed Jihadi ideologies that have destroyed
the Palestinian people in Gaza" — Gaza-born political activist Ahmed Fouad
Alkhatib, March 10, 2026.
As long as the world's attention remains focused elsewhere, Hamas will continue
to rebuild its authority in the Gaza Strip without facing serious international
scrutiny. Hamas seems to believe that time works in its favor. The longer the
international community's silence persists, the easier it becomes for the terror
group to reestablish itself as the only legitimate power.
While some international parties continue searching for diplomatic formulas and
peace plans to stabilize the Gaza Strip, Hamas has made one thing abundantly
clear: it has no intention of relinquishing terrorism or power. Until that
reality changes, no peace plan will have a realistic chance of transforming the
future of the Gaza Strip.
Hamas is rebuilding its financial machinery by collecting taxes, fees, and
customs charges on goods entering the Gaza Strip. The money is not being
invested in reconstruction. Instead, it is going toward rebuilding the terrorist
group's military capabilities.
As international attention is focused on the Iran war, the Palestinian Hamas
terror group has stepped up its crackdown on the Palestinian people as part of
its effort to reassert its control aggressively over the Gaza Strip.
Hamas's measures are in violation of US President Donald J. Trump's plan for
ending the Israel-Hamas war, which erupted on October 7, 2023 when the
Iran-backed terror group invaded Israel and murdered more than 1,200 Israelis
and foreign nationals.
According to the Trump peace plan, announced late last year:
"Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza,
directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive
infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be
destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza
under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing
weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning..."
The Trump administration and its newly established "Board of Peace," however,
have failed to call out Hamas for its ongoing breach of the terms of the
ceasefire plan. Hamas has evidently interpreted this silence as a green light to
pursue its effort to rearm, regroup and rebuild its regime by killing,
torturing, and economically squeezing the residents of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's
crimes against Palestinians do not surprise anyone. This is the governing model
it has used since violently seizing the Gaza Strip from the Palestinian
Authority in 2007. Ranjan Solomon wrote this month in Middle East Monitor:
"Hamas governs from within a shattered enclave of two million people. The Board
of Peace governs from a conference table in Washington.
"Hamas collects shekels in taxes on smuggled goods; the Board has no independent
revenue stream. "Hamas integrates 10,000 police personnel into proposed
structures; the Board must still wait for countries to commit personnel to a
stabilization force.
"Hamas appoints governors and mayors; the Board awaits reports."
Hamas is rebuilding its financial machinery by collecting taxes, fees, and
customs charges on goods entering the Gaza Strip. The money is not being
invested in reconstruction. Instead, it is going toward rebuilding the terrorist
group's military capabilities.
Last month, Reuters quoted an Israeli military assessment that warned that Hamas
is cementing its hold over the Gaza Strip by placing loyalists in key government
roles, collecting taxes, and paying salaries to its operatives. According to the
report:
"Israeli military officials say Hamas, which refuses to disarm, has been taking
advantage of an October [2025] ceasefire to reassert control in areas vacated by
Israeli troops....
"Hamas has named five district governors, all of them with links to its armed
al-Qassam Brigades, according to two Palestinian sources with direct knowledge
of its operations. It has also replaced senior officials in Gaza's economy and
interior ministries, which manage taxation and security, the sources said."
Last week, Hamas police officers reappeared on the streets of the Gaza Strip
with their vehicles, in yet another sign that the terror group has returned to
ruling the territory.
Hamas, in addition, has murdered, arrested, assaulted, or summoned for
interrogation dozens of Palestinians for allegedly speaking out against the
terror group.
A recent video circulating on social media shows Hamas terrorists shooting an
unidentified man in the town of Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip, then preventing
him from receiving medical treatment.
Gaza-born political activist Hamza Howidy wrote last week:
"Since the war with Iran began, Hamas's thugs have intensified their brutal,
savage, barbaric campaign against Gaza's own residents. The people in this photo
are just some of many who have been executed, shot, kidnapped, or brutally
tortured in recent weeks. The list of atrocities grows by the day, and the sheer
sadism on display goes beyond anything comprehensible (even for those of us who
were born and raised in Gaza and saw Hamas's brutality up close for years). We
thought we had seen the floor of their depravity. There is no floor for those
people.
"I have shared many of these stories, and in many cases they were later
confirmed by journalists and activists inside Gaza or diaspora Gazans. The
'crime' those people committed? Saying their own opinions. "What makes this even
worse than the suffering of those victims itself is the silence of the people
who built entire careers screaming about Palestinian suffering. The same
commentators, the same "human rights advocates," the same influencers, and the
same media outlets that spent months positioning themselves as the moral
conscience of the world, packaging Palestinian pain into clout, followers, and
book deals, have gone completely dark....
"The Palestinians left to die under Hamas's boots are apparently the wrong kind
of Palestinians, too inconvenient, too disruptive to the narrative, and too
alive in ways that don't serve 'the cause'".Commenting on the reappearance of
Hamas police officers, another Gaza-born political activist, Ahmed Fouad
Alkhatib, wrote on March 12:
"Hamas terrorists conducted a parade in their trucks inside the al-Mawasi tent
zone for the displaced. These gunmen are the same ones who are killing,
kidnapping, torturing, and shooting Gazans every single day; they're making
their presence known to say "shut up & pay us taxes"! They hide in tent areas
and use civilians as shields to lessen the chance of being struck by Israeli
drones and air strikes. Just ask yourself: why would a terror organization do a
parade of its militiamen in the middle of a tent city, if it weren't either
hiding among the tents, or seeking to terrorize its inhabitants?"
Alkhatib revealed last week that Hamas members recently tortured a friend of his
who dared to criticize the terror group:
"Hamas's fascist militias tortured my dear friend Ashraf Naser Shallah, who has
been in and out of hospitals in Gaza City over the past couple of days. They
took his phone, stole his wallet with critical documents, and threatened to kill
him if he continued to speak out against their terrorism, the Iranian regime,
the fraudulent 'resistance' narrative, the desire for peace with Israelis, and
his refusal to be cannon fodder in failed Jihadi ideologies that have destroyed
the Palestinian people in Gaza."
On March 10, Hamas terrorists shot and killed Asa'ad Abu Mahadi for unknown
reasons. His nephew, Waseem Abu Mahadi, wrote on March 10:
"My uncle, 'Abu Younis,' died today in the hospital.
"On Sunday, a Hamas terrorist militia checkpoint opened fire on his civilian car
while he was driving with his son. He was critically wounded. For two days he
fought for his life in the hospital. Today, he died. "My uncle was not involved
in politics or any faction. He was a peaceful man who loved his family and tried
to live a normal life.
"After the shooting, we were told that he had been shot BY MISTAKE.
"A mistake...
"As if shooting at a civilian's car is just an unfortunate accident. As if
another Palestinian life disappearing into the chaos of militias and guns can
simply be brushed aside.
"This is what happens when the rule of law disappears and terrorist militias
take its place."
In another incident, Hamas members assaulted Mohammed Abu Amra inside al-Aqsa
Hospital in Deir al-Balah, where he was tied to the bed despite his injury, and
the medical teams were prevented from completing his treatment.
As long as the world's attention remains focused elsewhere, Hamas will continue
to rebuild its authority in the Gaza Strip without facing serious international
scrutiny. Hamas seems to believe that time works in its favor. The longer the
international community's silence persists, the easier it becomes for the terror
group to reestablish itself as the only legitimate power.
While some international parties continue searching for diplomatic formulas and
peace plans to stabilize the Gaza Strip, Hamas has made one thing abundantly
clear: it has no intention of relinquishing terrorism or power. Until that
reality changes, no peace plan will have a realistic chance of transforming the
future of the Gaza Strip.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
*Follow Khaled Abu Toameh on X (formerly Twitter)
© 2026 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute.
5 Things To Know About Mojtaba Khamenei
Janatan Sayeh &Samuel Ben-Ur/Insight/March 16/2026
Mojtaba Khamenei, a mid-ranking Shia cleric and son of the late Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei, has been named the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader.
“Khamenei became young again,” Iranian state media declared, portraying the
succession of Mojtaba as a continuation rather than a break. Despite rumors that
Mojtaba had been injured in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, the Assembly of Experts
installed him as the Islamic Republic’s highest authority, reportedly under
pressure from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This
dynastic transfer of power sits uneasily with a revolution that once denounced
hereditary rule. Here are five things to know about the third supreme leader:
1. Mojtaba prefers to operate behind the scenes.
Unlike his father, or other clerical elites, Mojtaba, 56, has never given a
sermon in public, run for public office, or held a major clerical leadership
post. That said, Mojtaba is not a departure from the system but its purest
product, embodying repression, corruption, and ideological militancy. As supreme
leader, he will rely heavily on the IRGC, tightening the bond between the
barracks and the pulpit. Under Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba functioned as an unelected
power broker within Iran’s most influential establishments, wielding influence
through his father’s office. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned him in 2019
for “representing the Supreme Leader in an official capacity” despite holding no
formal government office. He worked in tandem with the chief of staff of the
supreme leader’s office, Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani, and others.
2. Mojtaba manipulated Iranian elections towards hardliners.
Mojtaba emerged politically in the 1990s as the Islamic Republic struggled with
the consequences of competitive elections where the so-called “reformist”
candidates performed well. As reformists gained momentum under Mohammad Khatami,
hardline clerical and security factions began building counter-networks to
contain the movement. Mojtaba became one of the most important of those
unelected organizers. Over time he developed a reputation as a backroom
political broker hostile to detente with the West and deeply suspicious of any
opening that might weaken the revolutionary state.
In the mid-2000s, he was widely associated with the rise of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
whose 2005 presidential victory marked a decisive turn toward a harder line in
government. In 2009, reformist cleric Mahdi Karroubi directly objected to what
he alleged was Mojtaba’s role in supporting Ahmadinejad.
3. Mojtaba helped forge the regime’s repression apparatus.
Mojtaba is not merely associated with conservative politics; he is closely tied
to the institutions that enforce ideological conformity by force. He has direct
links to the Basij, a religious militia, in advancing “oppressive domestic
objectives.” His name became notorious after the 2009 Green Movement, when the
Basij and IRGC crushed protests triggered by a disputed presidential election.
This record is one reason he inspires such visceral hostility among many
Iranians. In fact, residents of Tehran chanted “death to Mojtaba” from their
homes amid American and Israeli airstrikes targeting the regime. They view him
as a man whose power grew wherever and whenever the regime moved from persuasion
to surveillance to intimidation to beatings to arrests, and, finally, to
killing.
4. Mojtaba has deep ties with Iran’s security elites.
After finishing high school, Mojtaba served in the Habib Battalion, an elite
IRGC unit composed of young, ideologically committed fighters, during the last
year of the Iran-Iraq War. The unit connected him to men who later moved into
the regime’s most sensitive security posts. Among them were Hossein Taeb, who
became commander of the Basij and later head of the IRGC Intelligence
Organization; Hossein Nejat, who went on to command Sarallah Headquarters, the
IRGC formation responsible for security in Tehran; and Hassan Mohaghegh, another
Habib alumnus who rose inside IRGC intelligence structures.
Mojtaba’s institutional political support has grown through external family
ties, having married into one of the regime’s most important hardline families:
his wife, Zahra Haddad-Adel (who was killed in the same airstrike as his
father), was the daughter of Gholamali Haddad-Adel, the former parliament
speaker and a central conservative powerbroker.
5. Mojtaba built vast foreign wealth despite sanctions.
Mojtaba has also moonlighted as a real-estate mogul outside of Iran. Recent
investigations tied his network to more than $138 million in London property
alone, including 11 mansions on Bishop Avenue — London’s “Billionaires Row” —
and two apartments overlooking Israel’s UK embassy.
Many of these acquisitions were made through an intermediary. Sanctioned
businessman Ali Aliakbar Ansari described a $462 million European portfolio
spanning hotels, resorts, and shopping centers. The United Kingdom sanctioned
Ansari in October 2025 with an asset freeze, travel ban, and director
disqualification for financially supporting the IRGC.
**Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic
Republic’s regional malign influence. Samuel Ben-Ur is a research analyst at FDD
focused on global Christian persecution. For more analysis from the authors and
FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. Follow FDD on X @FDD
and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Oman Is Under Fire From an Iranian Regime It Sought To
Befriend
Ahmad Sharawi/Policy Brief - FDD/March 13, 2026
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/03/13/oman-is-under-fire-from-an-iranian-regime-it-sought-to-befriend/
Even as his country was under threat from Iran, Oman’s ruler congratulated the
Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on his appointment,
expressing his “best wishes for success in assuming his leadership
responsibilities.” Less than 48 hours later, Iranian drones struck Oman’s
Salalah Port, hitting the fuel tanks. On March 13, an Iranian drone attack
killed two people in the coastal city of Sohar. The strike was not an isolated
incident. On March 2 and March 3, Iran targeted the ports of Duqm and Salalah
multiple times. And, despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s apology to
Arab states and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s claim that the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps’ attacks on Oman were “not our choice,” Iran continues
to target the country.
Oman’s Ties to Iran Are Particularly Strong Compared With Other Arab States
Oman was the first Arab country to congratulate Mojtaba Khamenei on his
appointment as Iran’s supreme leader, and the only Gulf Cooperation Council
state to do so, sending its message within hours of the announcement. Oman’s
grand mufti — the country’s religious leader — also welcomed the appointment,
writing on X that, “We beseech God for the new Leader to achieve success and
divine guidance,” and expressing hope that he would follow his predecessor in
championing the Palestinian cause and confronting what he called “fading
Zionism.”None of this is out of character for Muscat. Oman is also the only GCC
country to condemn the American-Israeli campaign against Iran. Historically,
Oman has maintained friendlier ties with Tehran than its Gulf neighbors. While
other GCC states have hedged their relations with Iran, few have facilitated
Tehran’s financial and commercial activities to the extent Oman has. Muscat’s
close relationship with Tehran appears to have skewed its assessment of the
conflict. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi recently claimed that one of
the objectives of the war was to “prevent the establishment of a Palestinian
state and weaken every state or institution that stands with or supports the
project of establishing a Palestinian state.”
Hedging With Tehran Does not Guarantee Security
Oman is not alone in learning a lesson about the Iranian regime’s duplicity.
Despite years of engaging with the Islamic Republic, while balancing ties to the
West, Gulf states are now bearing the brunt of Iranian attacks. Iran is
targeting civilian areas and energy infrastructure, causing casualties, severe
disruptions to daily life, and delays to oil and gas production. It is exactly
what the Gulf states had hoped to avoid through conciliatory policies. Part of
Oman’s caution toward Iran is geopolitical. The two countries sit on opposite
sides of the Strait of Hormuz and jointly control access to one of the world’s
most critical maritime chokepoints. A rupture between them could complicate
navigation through the strait and undermine Oman’s role in regional trade. Yet
years of accommodation have bought little security. Despite Muscat’s
conciliatory approach, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait and is
now attacking Oman itself.
Washington Should Pressure Oman To Stop Enabling Tehran and Its Proxy Networks
Iranian financial institutions sanctioned for supporting terrorism — including
Bank Saderat and Bank Melli — have continued to operate in Oman, allowing Tehran
to retain channels into the international financial system. At the same time,
Yemen’s Houthi terror group — an Iranian proxy — maintains a political office in
Muscat led by their chief negotiator, Mohammed Abdulsalam, a U.S.-designated
terrorist. Successive rounds of U.S. sanctions have revealed that the Houthis
use Oman as a hub for financial transactions and weapons procurement. The United
States should make clear to Omani leaders that they must end financial and
commercial relationships with Iran and other sanctioned entities. If Muscat
declines to do so, the United States should begin investigating Omani
individuals and financial institutions for potential sanctions-evasion activity.
**Ahmad Sharawi is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE.
Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
How Iran’s forced oil crisis is Trump’s energy opportunity
Natalie Ecanow/ New York Post/March 16, 2026
https://nypost.com/2026/03/12/opinion/how-irans-forced-oil-crisis-is-trumps-energy-opportunity/
The Strait of Hormuz is on fire. And the Iranian regime wants to keep it that
way.
On Wednesday, Tehran warned that it “will never allow even a single liter of oil
to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”Hours earlier, Iranian drones slammed into
oil storage facilities at Oman’s Salalah port. Oman suspended terminal
operations at the port indefinitely; oil spiked over $100 a barrel. It was the
latest energy domino to fall in the Persian Gulf. Since the start of Operation
Epic Fury, the Islamic Republic has launched hundreds of strikes against targets
across the region, disrupting oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi
Arabia. On Monday, Bahrain’s national oil company declared force majeure after
an Iranian strike sent its main refinery ablaze, allowing it to skip contracted
deliveries without penalty. The United Arab Emirates suspended operations at its
largest oil refinery the next day. Not every strike has produced equal damage,
nor are the stakes of every shutoff equal.
But there’s no doubt global energy markets are caught in the crosshairs of this
war.
And that gives the United States several opportunities.
First, to hit Iran where it hurts.
Oil and gas are effectively the Islamic Republic’s kneecaps — and if its means
of production are hit, the regime will buckle. Tehran raises roughly half of its
revenue from oil and gas. Without that revenue, it will increasingly struggle to
fund its war machine. This is a critical vulnerability that the United States
can exploit. President Donald Trump can leverage the threat of US attacks on
Iranian energy infrastructure to deter Iranian attacks against Gulf
infrastructure — and as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. In the
meantime, the effects of Iranian strikes on energy facilities continue to ripple
around the globe. In Europe, gas prices spiked as much as 50% and gasoline
prices by nearly 30% during the war’s first week. Americans are also feeling it
at the pump: By Thursday, the average price of gas in the US hovered around
$3.60 — up more than 20% from last month. Yet prolonged disruptions to Gulf
energy shipments, particularly Qatari liquified natural gas (or LNG), could hit
Asia hardest. More than 80% of Qatari LNG is destined for Asian markets,
including China, South Korea and India. Qatar’s national energy company
suspended LNG production on March 2 and formally declared force majeure on March
4. Taiwan, at least, has already reportedly started to look for alternative
suppliers. If Iran’s dependence on energy revenue gives the United States
leverage, the impact of the war on global energy markets offers economic
opportunity. With Gulf production largely offline, the door is open for the
United States to assert leadership. Last year, Trump set up the National Energy
Dominance Council to “expand all forms of reliable and affordable energy
production.”
Now is its moment.
In an effort to ease energy prices, members of the International Energy Agency
agreed on Wednesday to release a combined 400 million barrels of oil “from their
respective reserves.” Washington will pitch in 172 million barrels — and is
uniquely positioned to do more. As the world’s leading LNG producer, the United
States should move to maximize domestic production and export capacity to assure
the market that an adequate and available energy supply exists. American exports
only stand to grow more valuable the longer Gulf flows remain constrained.
Trump’s administration can go further still, locking in new long-term LNG
contracts with customers looking to replace Gulf supply.
Opportunities also exist beyond America’s shores.
The energy fallout in the Gulf gives Washington an opening to advance the
India-Middle East-Europe Corridor project. Launched in 2023, IMEC aims to
connect India, Europe and the Middle East “through an integrated rail and
shipping corridor.”
Energy is a key pillar of the initiative. Seen to fruition, IMEC will offer
shipping routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. As the war with Iran has
demonstrated, such an alternative is critical. Iranian threats to close the
Strait of Hormuz have caused maritime insurers to cancel plans or hike up
premiums.
Traffic is down, and Trump plans to offer naval escorts and maritime risk
insurance through the US Development Finance Corporation — stopgap measures at
best. But imagine if a pipeline linking Saudi Arabia through Israel to the
Mediterranean Sea and onward to European markets existed. Italy and India are
already revved up: Senior officials spoke about IMEC during a March 9 phone
call, confirming “how crucial it is to strengthen investments in new
infrastructures and secure trade routes.”
Iran is betting that bleeding energy markets will end the war. Trump should see
that bet and raise it — advancing American energy dominance and promoting Middle
East prosperity in the process.
**Natalie Ecanow is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. X: @NatalieEcanow.
Arab Nations’ Era of Accommodating Iran Is Over
Ahmad Sharawi/National Review/March 16/2026
Washington should make clear to its Gulf partners that neutrality is no longer a
strategy.
Tehran is lashing out at its Arab neighbors as the U.S.-Israeli strikes
intensify, making clear it is willing to inflict maximum harm and damage to the
Persian Gulf states, expanding the battlefield and dragging them into the storm.
Since the conflict began, Iran has launched more than 2,500 missiles and drones
toward Gulf states, targeting everything from cities to energy infrastructure to
economies, which now serve as collateral in Iran’s confrontation with the U.S.
and Israel. For years, many Arab governments convinced themselves this moment
would never arrive. They hedged and tolerated aspects of Tehran’s regional
activities. Yet, the strategy has failed. Saudi Arabia normalized relations with
Iran in 2023, but its oil infrastructure is now being targeted. The United Arab
Emirates serves as a hub for Iranian sanctions evasion, yet it too faces missile
and drone attacks. Qatar and Oman host Iran’s proxies, but they have not been
spared either. Iran has long preferred to shift the cost of confrontation onto
its Arab neighbors. In 2019, Iran struck Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility. The
attack briefly knocked out roughly half of the kingdom’s oil production and sent
shock waves through global energy markets. Tehran has long relied on proxies to
fight its battles on Arab soil. These include militants linked to a failed coup
attempt in Bahrain in 1981 and the Houthis’ missile and drone barrages against
Saudi and Emirati cities. The American presence in the Gulf has also been a
target. In 1996, an Iran-backed network carried out the Khobar Towers bombing in
Saudi Arabia, killing 19 American servicemen. Iran has not hidden its ambitions
when it comes to the Arab world. Tehran’s officials have boasted that the regime
controlled four Arab capitals — Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanaa — and have
portrayed Gulf states as weak regimes and forward bases of American power. In
2008, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander warned that “all the
cities of the Persian Gulf are within range of Iranian missiles” — a reminder
that in Tehran’s strategic thinking, the Gulf monarchies are leverage points in
its confrontation with Washington.
Today, Tehran is widening the battlefield, turning Arab states themselves into
the front line of its war with Washington. Whether this is out of weakness —
dragging the region into the storm as pressure mounts — or to punish Gulf states
for their ties with the United States, the region will remain unstable as long
as the Islamic Republic survives.
Yet many Persian Gulf governments have not reached that conclusion. They still
insist that regime change in Tehran should not be the goal, preferring a quick
end to the conflict instead. The fear is that a post-regime Iran could descend
into civil war, produce a refugee crisis, or empower an even more radical
successor controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. The Gulf states see a weakened
but stable Islamic Republic as preferable to regional chaos. It is not required
that Gulf governments openly call for regime change in Tehran. That task can be
left to Washington and Jerusalem. But the policy that has guided Gulf diplomacy
for years — maintaining trade, financial channels, and diplomatic engagement
with the Islamic Republic while hoping tensions would remain manageable — has
collapsed. The alternative should be a shift from hedging to isolating Iran
diplomatically and economically.
Tehran itself offered a reminder of why hedging no longer works. Iranian
President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent apology for its attacks on neighboring
countries rang hollow. On the same day he expressed regret for the strikes,
Iranian forces launched 27 more attacks — the highest daily total since the war
began. This is a regime that cannot be trusted. Left unchecked, it will keep
setting the region ablaze. As long as it survives, future conflict is
inevitable, and Arab states will again find themselves in the crosshairs.
Washington should make clear to its Persian Gulf partners that neutrality is no
longer a strategy. Preventing future attacks will not come from accommodating
Tehran but from isolating it. This means dismantling the financial hubs that
Iranian operatives use to evade sanctions. It also means restricting the
commercial channels that sustain Tehran’s economy and expelling Iran’s proxies
who operate under the diplomatic fiction of mediation. Gulf governments should
align themselves with those confronting Tehran’s aggression — hedging will only
ensure that Arab cities remain the battlefield.
Europe needs to seize and hold Russian tankers, not play
catch-and-release
Max Meizlish & Peter Doran/Euractiv/March 16/2026
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/03/13/europe-needs-to-seize-and-hold-russian-tankers-not-play-catch-and-release/
Europe’s catch-and-release
approach to Russia’s shadow fleet is more akin to traffic enforcement than law
enforcement
Europe is finally stepping up enforcement against Russian sanctions evasion. But
its work is just beginning. Belgian commandos rappelled from French helicopters
in a daring night operation on at the start of the month to seize the sanctioned
tanker Ethera in the choppy North Sea. French President Emmanuel Macron savoured
the success, declaring: “Europeans are determined to cut off the funding sources
for Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine by enforcing sanctions.”But seizures
are not the same as forfeitures. And if past is prologue, Europe’s
catch-and-release playbook won’t materially rattle at the Kremlin’s coffers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy understands this. He called Belgium’s
seized vessel a “floating purse” and urged Europe to confiscate the ship’s oil.
Europeans would be wise to listen to Zelenskyy. The stakes for enforcing EU
sanctions are rising along with oil prices. The same weekend that Belgium seized
the Ethera, US and Israeli strikes on Iran sent Brent crude up 7% at Monday’s
open. Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev predicts “$100+ oil
per barrel soon.” While that figure is likely inflated, the signal is clear:
Moscow expects to profit from Middle East supply disruptions. It will unless
Europe adds considerable costs to the business of sanctions evasion. The way to
do that is by confiscating the “shadow fleet” — Russia’s hundreds of aged,
sanctioned tankers moving hundreds of millions of dollars of crude every day.
The problem is that Europe’s legal architecture was not designed for the task at
hand. When European navies board shadow fleet vessels, they do so because a ship
is sailing without a valid flag, which under the UN Convention on the Law of the
Sea permits any state to board and inspect. Or maybe because an ageing,
sanctioned tanker presents an environmental risk.
Either way, the result is typically nothing short of catch and release. In
January, France caught the US and EU-sanctioned tanker Grinch to rights for
flying under a false flag (a common evasion technique). The owner paid a fine of
several million euros and the Grinch sailed free with its sanctioned crude on
board.
France’s Foreign Minister claimed a victory, stating that “circumventing
European sanctions comes at a price.” But the French achievement was more akin
to traffic enforcement than law enforcement.
Germany tried to go further when the shadow tanker Eventin drifted into its
waters following an engine failure in early 2025. The Eventin was carrying
nearly $50 million worth of Russian crude when Berlin detained the vessel on
safety grounds. The EU later designated it for sanctions and German customs
authorities confiscated both the ship and cargo. But a German court later ruled
the government lacked the authority to confiscate the Eventin. It now sits
anchored off the island of Rügen, with officials searching for options.
Estonia and Finland have hit similar walls in clamping down on shadow tankers.
Europe’s legal constraints are becoming a predictable transaction cost for
Putin’s sanctions runners.
Three reforms would change this.
First, EU countries should create an explicit forfeiture authority for
sanctioned vessels and their illicit cargo. They could model the approach of
coastal states, which seize and permanently forfeit vessels that violate
fisheries law in their waters. If Europeans can grab trawlers, they should be
able to target the tankers that threaten their freedom. Proceeds from scrapping
the ships and selling their crude could support Ukrainian reconstruction.
Second, EU countries should be empowered to permanently ban crew members found
serving aboard a sanctioned vessel from entering European ports and territory.
Shadow fleet operators depend on rotating pools of third-country seafarers.
Making service aboard a designated vessel a career-ending decision would raise
costs across hundreds of ships faster and more cheaply than any boarding
operation. Third, the EU should aggressively enforce existing requirements for
vessels transiting EU waters to provide proof of internationally recognised
insurance. Past efforts by Baltic coastal states and the United Kingdom have
proven unsuccessful, suggesting a greater patrol presence will be needed to
enforce new regulations that require proof of vessel insurance.
Europe’s catch-and-release approach to Russia’s shadow fleet must end. Doing so
would deal a major blow to the Kremlin’s war effort. Sanctions evaders have
learned to flout Europe’s conventional approaches to enforcement, and Moscow
knows what it’s doing. If Europe is going to win the evolving sanctions war,
it’s best to target the shadow vessels, their cargo, and the crews.
**Max Meizlish is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
(FDD). Peter Doran is a senior adjunct fellow at FDD.
Regime Change Without Nation Building
Jonathan Schanzer/The Commentary/March 16/2026
https://www.commentary.org/articles/jonathan-schanzer/regime-change-iran-america-trump/
America and Israel are at war with Iran, a fact that should be neither shocking
nor surprising. Both countries have been targeted by the Islamic Republic since
its inception in 1979. Both countries have engaged in painful battles with the
regime’s proxies. Both nations battled Iran for 12 days last year; Israel
targeted nuclear assets and other key military targets, paving the way for a
crescendo of American strikes that hammered Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But the
regime refused to back down. It continued to pursue its nuclear program and its
violent proxy project. Its ballistic missile stockpile also grew at an alarming
rate.
Seven months after American planes did their damage, U.S. President Donald Trump
parked a massive armada in the waters surrounding Iran. For weeks, he exhorted
the regime to negotiate and surrender its illicit nuclear program. Concurrently,
the Israelis threatened war if the regime continued to stockpile missiles. The
clerics refused to stand down, thus triggering a widening war. And so we begin
anew the debate inside the United States since the last helicopter escaped the
American compound in Saigon in April 1975. What is the role of the American
military in achieving American aims, and should American aims include using
force to change regimes we believe violate the international order and pose a
long-term threat to us and to the West? Never mind that the Iranian regime has
all but asked for this war since 1979. The conversation is not about Iran; it’s
about the United States almost exclusively—with Israel thrown in as well. The
21st-century meaning of “America First,” the vague slogan that Donald Trump
revived when he began his political career in 2015, is now being hashed out and
defined in real time.
The moment war erupted, critics hammered Trump—and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu. Tucker Carlson called the war “disgusting and evil.” He declared,
“Just because the prime minister of Israel wanted a regime change… It certainly
wasn’t a good idea for the United States.”
Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene lamented, “Trump, [Vice President
JD] Vance, [Director of the Office of National Intelligence] Tulsi [Gabbard],
and all of us campaigned on no more foreign wars and regime change.” She later
stated, “We voted for America First and ZERO wars.”
The anti-Trump left piled on. Senator Elizabeth Warren released a statement
saying. “‘America first’ doesn’t mean dragging the United States into another
forever war built on lies while ignoring the needs of Americans here at home.”
Representative Ro Khanna posted on X decrying the “illegal regime change war in
Iran with American lives at risk.”
Critics on both sides seek to discredit Trump by invoking the phrase “America
First” and claiming that it means something other than the war Trump launched in
2026. They suggest that he has betrayed his voters and tricked the American
people by wielding those words and then using massive force against a faraway
country many Americans know little about. To be fair, Trump did repeatedly
declare that he would steer America away from costly foreign entanglements. But
we don’t know the cost or impact of this war. Moreover, declarations and actions
are two different things. Over the past few decades, presidents have fallen into
the habit of speaking belligerently and then acting cautiously. Trump has done
almost exactly the opposite and seems (as of this early writing) unfazed by the
complaint that he has been untrue to his own doctrine.
Wars have a way of destroying presidential legacies or securing them. For Trump,
his presidency’s success, both now and in history’s retelling, hinges on
battlefield performance and a paradigm shift. He must first bring down the
Iranian regime while limiting the spread of the conflict. But he also cannot
commit to costly and futile nation-building. Finally, he must avoid Iran’s
maddening complexities, especially its sectarian and nationalist baggage. In
short, he must pursue “America First” regime change. But what does that mean,
exactly?
Not all regime change is bad or disastrous. The U.S. has overthrown more than
three dozen hostile regimes in modern history. Some have been remarkable
successes.
The defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 was the product of total war culminating in
Germany’s unconditional surrender. The Marshall Plan directed billions of
dollars into rebuilding West Germany. Over time, Germany emerged as a stable and
democratic European ally. Similarly, the defeat of Imperial Japan in 1945
ushered in a military occupation led by General Douglas MacArthur. U.S.
authorities dismantled Japan’s institutions and oversaw the adoption of a
democratic constitution and parliament. Today, Japan is one of Washington’s most
important Asian allies.
In 1983, U.S. forces entered Grenada to evacuate U.S. citizens, restore
stability, and prevent the spread of violence after the government collapsed.
Approximately 7,000 U.S. troops, alongside Caribbean forces, rapidly defeated
the Grenadian military and Cuban forces on the island. The United States then
supported constitutional elections in 1984 that restored civilian democratic
rule, which Grenada still boasts today.
In 1986, the United States toppled Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos after
fraudulent elections that rocked the country. As mass protests and military
defections grew, U.S. officials worked to facilitate a peaceful transition. In
February 1986, the U.S. evacuated Marcos to exile in Hawaii. Subsequent American
efforts focused on democratic institutions and economic stabilization. Today the
Philippines is among America’s oldest and most important allies in Asia.
In 1989, the United States removed Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega, a figure
indicted in U.S. courts on drug charges. Approximately 27,000 U.S. troops were
dispatched to the region. Noriega surrendered in January 1990 and then stood
trial in the United States. After a period of transition, Panama remained stable
and democratic.
More recently, America toppled the dictator of Venezuela, a narco-state that
undermined American security and national interests in South America. The U.S.
attempted to pressure President Nicolás Maduro to leave power under threat of
military action and an oil blockade. Even with a massive fleet positioned off
the coast of Venezuela, Maduro refused to yield. American forces arrested him in
Caracas, removed him from the premises, and shipped him to America to stand
trial. Trump then threatened Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s successor, with a “big
price, probably bigger than Maduro” if she did not cooperate. She has since
cooperated with American demands: passing pro-business oil laws, cutting off oil
sales to American adversaries, and releasing hundreds of political prisoners.
Admittedly, not all regime change efforts have ended well. For example, in the
1950s, the Eisenhower administration overthrew Guatemalan President Jacobo
Árbenz, whose Communist leanings also alarmed Washington. However, the new
regime of Carlos Castillo Armas was unstable. He was assassinated in 1957,
triggering a series of military takeovers, insurgencies, and weak civilian
governments.
In the early 1970s, the Richard Nixon administration sought to derail the
Chilean government of Salvador Allende. Economic pressure, diplomatic isolation,
and covert support contributed to the 1973 military coup that marked the rise of
General Augusto Pinochet—who did everything to derail efforts later in his rule
to let free elections take place.
A more recent suboptimal outcome was the 2011 Libya intervention. The United
States and allies combined sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and limited military
force to topple strongman Muammar Qaddafi during the Libyan civil war. NATO
enforced a no-fly zone, enabling an air campaign that targeted Libyan military
infrastructure while supporting rebel advances. Washington froze billions of
dollars in regime assets to finance the new government. After Qaddafi fell,
however, the Libyan government failed to consolidate power. Rival Muslim states
backed opposing forces, yielding a deadlock that has endured since the
re-eruption of the civil war in 2014.
Iraq and Afghanistan are America’s ultimate regime-change failures. In the case
of Afghanistan, the war was just; the Taliban sheltered al-Qaeda leaders before
the 9/11 attacks. President George W. Bush’s error was trying to forge
Afghanistan into a flourishing democracy, using American taxpayer dollars,
during an ongoing insurgency. The total cost reached $2.3 trillion, with more
than 2,300 U.S. service members dead, before a cringe-inducing American
withdrawal in 2021.
The 2003 war in Iraq was equally destructive but also less just. The rationale
for intervention centered around allegations that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein
had “chemical and biological weapons” and was “seeking nuclear weapons.” That
turned out to be wrong. But Bush’s gravest error in Iraq was the same one he
made in Afghanistan. He sought to turn Iraq into a democracy during an
asymmetric terror campaign to derail America’s efforts. The war cost American
taxpayers more than $2 trillion, with 4,300 U.S. service members dead.
America didn’t lose because regime change was bad. Regime change was hard, and
it was made insuperably so due to the interference of one key player in both
Iraq and Afghanistan. That player was Iran. Iranian training and material
support for Iraqi militias enabled deadly attacks against American troops. The
Pentagon assesses that Iran was behind 603 deaths (more than one-quarter) of
American service members in Iraq. And while numbers are not available for
Afghanistan, William Wood, former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, said, “There
is no question that elements of the insurgency have received weapons from
Iran.”Questions linger as to why President George W. Bush chose not to widen the
War on Terror to include the Islamic Republic. He included it in the “Axis of
Evil,” after all. But given the long history of Iranian attacks against the
United States, it’s fair to ask: Why did presidents over the course of 11 terms
of office across 46 years refuse to act against the regime that was the most
implacably hostile to America?
The trail of blood began in 1979, with the hostage crisis during which 52
Americans were held by the nascent Iranian regime for 444 days. President Jimmy
Carter appeared feckless, hoping to resolve the crisis with diplomacy. The
election of Ronald Reagan ended the ordeal, but Tehran was not deterred. In
1983, the regime was behind a suicide bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut that
killed 63 people, including 17 Americans. The culprit was Hezbollah, an
Iran-backed terror group. Later that year, Hezbollah carried out a truck bombing
at a Marine compound in Beirut, killing 241 service personnel. The following
year, Hezbollah kidnapped CIA station chief William Buckley in Beirut, later
killing him. Hezbollah then managed to hijack two different airplanes, killing
three Americans. Reagan followed the advice of his defense secretary, Caspar
Weinberger, and repeatedly stood down.
President George H.W. Bush had an early brush with Iran-backed Hezbollah when it
killed U.S. Marine Corps Colonel William Higgins after kidnapping him in
Lebanon. Result: nothing.
President Bill Clinton was no more challenging to Iran than his predecessors had
been. During the 1990s, amid an American push for Middle East peace, Iran armed
and funded proxies in the Palestinian arena, where it shed more American blood.
Car bombings and suicide bombings by Hamas and Islamic Jihad not only derailed
America’s foreign policy but also killed and wounded scores of Americans.
The regime grew bolder. In 1996, a truck bombing rocked Khobar Towers in Saudi
Arabia, killing 19 Americans. The Iran-backed Hezbollah Al-Hijaz was blamed.
Then, with the assistance of Hezbollah, al-Qaeda bombed the U.S. Embassies in
Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 people, including 12 Americans, and wounding
thousands. Clinton’s flaccid response to terrorism in the 1990s is the greatest
foreign policy stain on his reputation.
By contrast, President George W. Bush’s War on Terror was expansive. But it was
arguably not expansive enough. The 9/11 Report concluded that Tehran enabled the
travel of 9/11 terrorists, noting “strong evidence that Iran facilitated the
transit of al Qaeda members into and out of Afghanistan.” Bush declined to hold
the regime accountable.
Similarly, Bush appeared paralyzed during the second intifada (2000–2005), when
Iran-backed terrorists embarked on a terrorism rampage in Israel. Hamas suicide
bombings continued to claim American lives. In 2003, Iran-backed terrorists even
killed three U.S. diplomatic personnel in Gaza.
The Barack Obama presidency was marked by appeasement. The 2013 Joint Plan of
Action (JPOA) yielded hundreds of millions of dollars to the regime in exchange
for the mullahs’ agreeing to sit at the table. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (JCPOA) gave the regime billions in exchange for fleeting restrictions
on its illicit nuclear program. The agreement never addressed terrorism.
President Donald Trump’s first term saw a spike in Iranian aggression,
particularly after he exited the JCPOA in 2018. In 2019 and 2020, attacks by
Iran-backed militias targeted American forces in Iraq. This prompted Trump’s
famous drone strike, which felled Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani. Iran,
however, was not deterred. In September 2020, American intelligence exposed a
plot to assassinate the U.S. ambassador to South Africa.
The presidency of Joe Biden began with a push for renewed diplomacy with the
regime. This did not halt Iranian aggression. Iran-backed militia attacks killed
or wounded American soldiers and contractors in Iraq and Syria between 2021 and
2023. Then, the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, plunged the Middle East into
chaos. Iran-backed Hamas killed at least 48 Americans and kidnapped at least 12
Americans that day. As the war widened, American service members were hit with
multiple Iranian proxy attacks, resulting in dozens of injuries and three
deaths.
In 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice announced charges against an Iranian
national and two American accomplices for plotting to assassinate President
Trump. A U.S. jury then convicted agents of Iran for plotting to assassinate
Iranian-American activist Masih Alinejad. Former U.S. officials Mike Pompeo,
Brian Hook, and others were also targets of Iranian assassination plots. In
March, as the bombs were falling on Tehran, a man working for the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps was convicted of entering the United States in 2024
with the intent of killing former Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley.
In short, Iran’s war against America has been relentless. There is no question
as to whether the current war is just. It is. The debate is not about Iran. It’s
about America’s role in the world.
None of Trump’s war critics question American military competence right now.
What they question is the cost of the war, Trump’s endgame, and what they
perceive as similarities between this action and the wars of the Bush era. In
essence, Trump is being pressed to explain how the “America First” president who
vowed to avoid foreign entanglements intends to steer America through this war.
Trump has already rejected the Pottery Barn Rule, a heretofore-unknown principle
adduced by Secretary of State Colin Powell that supposedly required the United
States to repair Iraq once we had “broken” it. Trump’s rejection is commendable.
Just because America stands up to another country’s aggression does not mean
that its taxpayers must finance the removal of rubble, let alone the rebuild.
This was a novel precept, and it is one that Americans broadly eschew. Americans
today seem to understand that the world is a dangerous place and that dangerous
actors may require overwhelming responses—but they want to prevent the spilling
of American blood or treasure for the benefit of others.
The Venezuela model for regime change is therefore, on the surface, an appealing
model for the future. Minimal risk, all-but-certain mission success, and the
promise of oil profits all sound ideal. However, surgical opera-tions with
little destruction or bloodshed were never in the cards when it came to engaging
Iran. Hundreds of top leaders and thousands of targets have been wiped out, with
oil facilities in flames. The United States may yet find an Iranian Delcy
Rodríguez should the regime begin to buckle. Then again, it’s hard to
overestimate the ideological nature of the Islamic Republic. The task of finding
pragmatists inside the regime may prove Sisyphean.
Here is where it is useful to remember that the people of Iran are arguably the
country’s greatest resource. They are educated. A less radical, more pragmatic
regime existed in Tehran in the memories of everyone older than 55, and the
experience of living under theocratic tyranny has been the only experience young
Iranians know.
Is Iran ripe for regime change? In 2009, Iranians overwhelmingly voted for
liberalization, only to have the mullahs fix the result—leading to an uprising
that had to be crushed, though not nearly as brutally as the killing spree in
January 2026 that showed the regime’s truly murderous colors in the mass
slaughter of tens of thousands. Indeed, Iranians have in recent memory sought to
carve a different path and, just two months ago, were in open revolt. This is
not a quiescent population whose will has been shattered.
Unfortunately, little is known about the opposition on the ground right now. But
Iranian unity will be crucial to any effort to reach a stable end state in this
war. We’ll soon see if the Persian-speaking majority can join forces with the
complex patchwork of Iranian minorities.
Self-defined experts on these matters look at the prospect of Iranian common
cause with deep skepticism. But we Americans are hardly the best judges of the
ways to achieve common ground. Our divisive politics have in recent decades
rendered American foreign policy schizophrenic, with key principles shifting
violently every four or eight years. The debates over military intervention,
regime change, and even America’s place in the world have yielded chaos and
confusion, both at home and abroad.
While Americans have been exceptionally vociferous in expressing their varying
political views in recent years, the Iran war has finally brought a major fault
line to the surface. This heated battle on both the left and the right is
between neo-isolationists and interventionists. For those who believe no good
can come of war and that America fails when it fights, no argument exists that
will penetrate their hard shell of determinist defeatism. But foreign policy
theorists in the neo-isolationist camp—those who do not want to appear to be
isolationist but rather realist—warn that whatever America does is merely a
distraction from the real issue of the 21st century. That issue is our “great
power competition” with China. Any cent we spend for any purpose other than
countering China is a penny wasted. Of course, since China is allied with Iran
and sees Iran as an extension of its sphere of interest, an American defeat of
Iran would serve the purpose of putting China on notice that we will not look
kindly on another totalitarian regime’s effort to spread its shadow across the
globe. Nor will we sit idly by.
The task before Donald Trump is finding a middle ground that appeals to the
isolationists and interventionists, on the left and the right, all of whom
fervently believe that they are putting “America First.” To secure his place in
American history, and to end this war on his terms, he must find a way to
validate both camps while engineering a decisive victory in Iran that heralds a
new Middle East, sets back rivals like China and Russia, and does not empty out
the U.S. Treasury.
None of this is simple or intuitive. But history is replete with American
regime-change experiments that did not bankrupt America and did not thrust it
into a forever war. Should Trump find a way of repeating that history, and not
the failures of the early 21st century, while vanquishing the greatest threat to
American interests in the Middle East, “America First” won’t just be a political
slogan. It will be a blueprint for other important battles amid the litany of
geopolitical challenges that lie ahead.
War and
the Price of Image
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/March 16/2026
Date: January 9, 1991
Location: The Intercontinental Hotel, Geneva
The world fixed its eyes on the venue. Journalists landed from near and far. The
Security Council resolution was unambiguous, demanding Iraq's immediate and
complete withdrawal from Kuwait, which it had overrun. The deadline was about to
expire. George H. W. Bush gave the ruler of Baghdad one last chance to
understand that the world was determined to turn the page on the invasion.
Across the Middle East and beyond, the stakes seemed immense. The moment seemed
dangerous and an irruption seemed imminent.
US Secretary of State James Baker entered from one side; his Iraqi counterpart
Tariq Aziz entered from the other, and they sat down. Journalists pressed for a
photo of the two men shaking hands, and it was granted. Aziz offered a faint
smile, Baker kept a poker face. Outside, tensions had reached a fever pitch. As
the talks dragged on, some speculated that the two ministers had been hashing
out the terms of a settlement. The conclusion reached after the seven-hour
"historic" meeting was that no agreement was possible. Eight days later, the war
to liberate Kuwait would begin.
Date: February 26, 2026
Location: The Omani Consulate, Geneva
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sat across the table from Steve Witkoff
and Jared Kushner. The prevailing impression was that the Iranian minister would
live up to his reputation as a shrewd negotiator and take a critical factor into
account: in the White House is Donald Trump, who had green lit the attack on
Iran's nuclear facilities after having, years earlier, given the order to
assassinate General Qasem Soleimani near Baghdad Airport.
The optimists were proven wrong. Aziz did not show Baker the flexibility needed
to avert war, and neither did Araghchi. In the first meeting, Aziz demanded that
every dispute in the region be settled and, having detected the scent of a
threat, refused to deliver Bush's letter to Saddam Hussein. In the later
episode, Araghchi declined to offer a concession that would allow Trump to claim
that he had succeeded in changing Iran's stance. Witkoff says Araghchi failed to
show goodwill, boasted of his country's strengths, and even shouted. The meeting
failed, and two days later, the American-Israeli campaign on Iran began.
I am fully aware of the differences between the two cases: different eras,
different men, and different circumstances. The regime of the "Islamic
Revolution" in Iran is nothing like Iraq's “Baath” regime. Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei has an entirely different conception of the world to that of Saddam
Hussein, and Araghchi's Iran is a far cry from Tariq Aziz's Iraq. Something else
compelled me to draw the comparison: I was struck, after the Geneva meeting,
that a man like Tariq Aziz, with his journalistic and diplomatic background, had
failed to help avert war. So I made a point of putting the question to a number
of people who had worked with Saddam, including some who served in his palace
and had maintained friendships with Aziz. Their answer surprised me: Aziz had
had no illusions about the peril Iraq would face if it held its ground, but he
could not convince his country's decision-maker to accept this reality, nor
speak to him candidly, especially not in meetings of the party's Regional
Command.
I also heard from the man listening in on the first phone call after the
invasion between King Hussein and the Iraqi president. The Jordanian monarch
diplomatically drew Saddam's attention to the gravity of the situation,
seemingly hinting that a withdrawal to Iraq's international borders was Saddam's
offramp.
Was Araghchi in a similar position to Aziz? Did his fear of accusations of
treason or capitulation push the region into the flames that continue to ravage
it? Did Iraq pay the price of Saddam's fear that his historic image would be
that of a man who had bowed to the demands of the "Great Satan"? And did Iran
and the region pay the price of the Supreme Leader's refusal to tarnish his
image by abandoning his nuclear dream and agreeing to discuss the range of his
missiles and Iran's relationship with its "proxies"?
Some believe that the man in the White House's own obsession with image played a
role in triggering this - that after listening to Witkoff, Trump felt the
Iranian carpet-weaver was treating him as Iran had his predecessors and that
Iran had been trying to undermine his image and that of "America's greatness."
It is not far-fetched to assume that leaders' image complex can impede ceasefire
efforts. What will Iran's image be after a ceasefire? Indeed, the very moment
the war began, it lost its Supreme Leader and a number of its commanders; since
then, it has lost much of its arsenal, factories, and capabilities. Can Mojtaba
Khamenei, the new, wounded Supreme Leader, accept the diminished image of
himself, his regime, and his country? Can the IRGC tolerate an image of weakness
or defeat when they are the backbone of the regime, especially under the new
Supreme Leader?
It is too early to speculate about the image of the parties that will emerge
from a war that remains wide open. Will a wounded or exhausted Iran conclude
that nothing can protect it but a nuclear bomb? What of the other powers in the
region, particularly after the Iranian regime committed the sin of attacking
states that had refused to join or facilitate the war?
Then there is the question of Israel's image, and that of Benjamin Netanyahu.
He spared Israel the peril of confronting Iran alone. What will become of
Netanyahu's own image if Trump chooses to declare victory and withdraw his
fleets? How long can the Middle East endure this spectacle of bombers, missiles,
drones, and flames engulfing a region whose energy arteries the world cannot
live without? When a ceasefire is declared, every party will claim victory. This
is the terrible Middle East. All players address losses by doubling down on
them.
Iran’s
supreme leader: Strategic calculations between attrition and victory illusions
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya English/1 6 March/2026
The speech of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei marked a decisive
moment in Iranian strategy, as he codified victory in the very fact that the
regime did not collapse and in the Revolutionary Guard’s exclusive control of
power, armed with a doctrine of revenge, retaliation, and self-sacrifice. Other
state institutions, including the presidency and the army, now appear
marginalized, while the Revolutionary Guard controls Iran’s destiny, sweeping it
along with recklessness – leaving the marks of turmoil.
The army remains silent, observing and refraining from intervention for now, and
that in itself is telling. It understands that what US forces destroyed of
Iran’s military capabilities amounted to a fundamental crushing that will
shackle Iran for many years. It understands that strategic obstinacy is one
thing, and military might another. It understands that what threatens Iran after
the war is the outbreak of overwhelming chaos, and that its role in restoring
order has no substitute – first and foremost for Iran, not the regime.
Any retreat in the face of US military or economic pressure constitutes a major
defeat, from the perspective of the Revolutionary Guard, to which Mojtaba
Khamenei has entrusted full control over Iran’s interior and over proxies in
Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
Mojtaba Khamenei has endorsed the Revolutionary Guard’s strategic recklessness,
just as he has violated the sovereignty of states where the Guard’s arms operate
to carry out Tehran’s commands under the banner of the Axis of Resistance.
Continuing chaotic boxing in the arenas of the Arab Gulf states is an essential
part of achieving strategic gains, according to the logic of the Revolutionary
Guard. The new Supreme Leader sent messages of escalation to these states,
imposing an impossible condition should they wish to avoid revenge and
retaliation – the closure of American bases on their territories.
Whether Iran wins this war or is defeated, revenge lies in wait for neighboring
states and for regional and global actors alike. Even if the war ends with a
ceasefire or agreement, beware of underestimating the Iranian memory of revenge
and retaliation.
For US President Donald Trump, victory is defined by the degree to which Iran’s
military arsenal is destroyed, control over global oil routes is secured, the
security of allies in the Gulf and economic interests is guaranteed, the
influence of China and Russia in the region vital to oil and the global economy
is reduced, Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and global energy
markets is neutralized, or the capacity to launch future strikes against
America’s allies is maintained.
The next phase, following the Supreme Leader’s speech, will be marked by an
acceleration of strategic operations and pre-emptive decisions. Iran, through
the Revolutionary Guard and its proxies, will seek to prolong the war and
exhaust the other side. The United States, for its part, seeks to end the war
relatively quickly and is now determined to deliver a decisive blow to strategic
targets, such as missile launch platforms and the Revolutionary Guard’s military
infrastructure, while maintaining balance with its allies, particularly Israel
and the Gulf states.
The US says it is determined to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,
while some European countries are considering joining defensive naval efforts to
protect maritime traffic. President Trump also has in mind seizing Kharg Island,
of extraordinary importance as the primary center for exporting Iranian oil.
In Lebanon, the challenge is twofold. Hezbollah, which receives its orders from
the Revolutionary Guard, represents an Iranian instrument of escalation and a
direct source of danger not only to Lebanese sovereignty but also to the unity
of Lebanese territory. Israel exploits the decisions of Hezbollah and the
Revolutionary Guard to avenge the assassination of Ali Khamenei, the former
Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic and uses their provocations through
rocket launches to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon free of Hezbollah
and its residents, ready for renewed occupation.
The Lebanese state committed grave mistakes in a flight forward and tactical
cleverness when it should have recognized the danger of hiding behind a finger
while Lebanon as a whole stood exposed. It clung to dialogue with Hezbollah to
implement its decision on the exclusivity of arms in the hands of the state,
exposing its maneuvering and evasion of responsibility.
The state should have adopted a bold pre-emptive strategy that protects the
country from sliding into confrontation with Israel, which possesses the
American green light to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. It should
not have committed the grave mistake of losing American confidence in itself and
its institutions, particularly the army.
Today, the state finds itself in a predicament with the Trump administration,
the only party capable of restraining Israel and preventing permanent occupation
of Lebanese territory. The drip-feeding of concessions and pledges, as the
Lebanese state practices, is almost like pouring water on the ground. The
belated declaration of readiness to conduct direct negotiations with Israel came
conditioned on a halt to Israeli attacks, without any mechanism to remove
Hezbollah’s weapons or expel Revolutionary Guard personnel. Israel will not
cease destroying everything in its path, and Lebanon now lies between the jaws
of Israeli arrogance and Iranian revenge. The Lebanese state must restore
confidence in itself – American confidence in particular – and this requires
measures and an end to pleading on the pretext of helplessness, because the
specter of civil war looms. Either Israel dismantles Hezbollah’s weapons
militarily and destroys Lebanon’s infrastructure completely, or the Lebanese
state must take a decisive step to save Lebanon and turn to the Trump
administration for help – call it submission or surrender; there is no
alternative to stopping the onslaught, the destruction of infrastructure, and
Israeli occupation except through Trump’s gateway. Even China and Russia play
the Trump card. They play the role of relatively neutral observers, while
safeguarding their economic and political interests. China does not want
escalation with Trump; what matters to it is ensuring the continued flow of oil,
particularly from the Gulf states. It seeks to be a political pressure player
more than a direct military actor, and it ignores the strategic treaty with
Iran. Russia, too, despite strategic agreements with Tehran, is incapable of
providing actual military support and cannot effectively act as a mediator
because it is hostage to Ukraine and its hostility with European states.
Iran today is in suffocating isolation, relying on strategies of attrition and
entrapment, grounded in the Revolutionary Guard’s doctrine and its proxies,
aiming to provoke the Gulf states into direct involvement in the war. The
Revolutionary Guard flounders in its panic and confusion, in a strategy of
revenge and a doctrine of retaliation and self-sacrifice. Who faces defeat and
who achieves victory? Let’s wait a little to decide. Trump will not retreat
before the Revolutionary Guard. Mojtaba Khamenei will not free himself from the
Guard’s grip. The Revolutionary Guard will not bow to defeat. Hezbollah will not
cease linking Lebanon’s fate to the IRGC’s decisions. Thus, the fate of Iran and
its proxies is tied to one of the regime’s institutions in Tehran, at least for
now, unfolding over weeks, not months or years.
X Platform Selected twittes for
March
16/2026
Tom Harb
Israel and the US give frequent, detailed military briefings (often multiple per
week) to show transparency, build trust, and demonstrate precision in an
offensive/defensive fight.
Iran’s regime? Almost zero public updates, no regular spokespeople, just vague
threats via state media. The silence usually means they’re hiding failures. Big
contrast: openness vs. secrecy. USA & Israel’s approach wins credibility every
time.
Reuters
Israeli army spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin
delivered a briefing to the Israeli media, saying Israel will continue to act in
both Iran and Lebanon until its operation's goals are achieved
https://reut.rs/3Pp4hiR
https://x.com/i/status/2033376456663871706
Nadim Koteich
Fareed Zakaria is one of the smartest commentators in American
foreign policy, and that's precisely why his latest take on Iran should be
dissected.
https://x.com/i/status/2033242021859627506
He concurs that America is replicating Britain's imperial error
by getting sucked into Middle Eastern "periphery", while China quietly eats the
future. It's a brilliant piece of reasoning, steeped in history and geopolitics.
It's also completely wrong.
And it's wrong precisely because of the British analogy that Zakaria uses to
make his point. The British Empire didn't decline because it over extended
itself in periphery wars in the Middle East and Asia. It declined because it
underestimated Germany, the revolutionary power rising up from its own
periphery, until it was almost too late. The correct lesson is that Iran should
have been attacked even sooner!
Iran is not periphery. Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, as current
events show. Iran, until few months ago, dominated four Arab capitals. It is at
nuclear breakout point and is the primary force multiplier for both Russian and
Chinese. This is not a distraction, it's a category error masked as geopolitical
sophistication.
Furthermore, Iran and China are not mutually exclusive. Gulf energy flows
through Hormuz, and China's plans to price oil in yuan flow through Gulf
relations. A nuclear Iran is structurally a China friendly Middle East.
Accordingly, taking down Iranian power is, in fact, partly about competing with
China.
Innovation is where Zakaria's argument is pure intellectual posturing. All
frontier AI models are American. The GPU supply chain is dominated by Nvidia.
The EUV chip printing equipment that is denied to China is American in design.
China will not get a cutting edge chip without American permission.
Covid vaccine alone is a fact that settles this debate. mRNA vaccine technology
took from conception to vaccine in less than 12 months, the fastest
pharmaceutical rollout in human history. China's Sinovac vaccine is a
traditional inactivated virus vaccine and is significantly less effective. Not
by a little. Not by a lot. Generational.
Alliance credibility is the real competition with China. If Washington is
signaling that their commitments are conditional, retreating in one place to
focus in another, what Beijing, Taipei, and Seoul hear is not "America is
strategically focused." They hear: "American security guarantees are
negotiable." Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait is not broken. It breaks when
allies start doing that math.
And now for the number that blows apart the entire "America is overextending
itself" narrative. The 1920 Iraqi Rebellion cost Britain £40 million, or 0.6% of
British GDP. And this was just one rebellion, one territory, over three months.
The first 12 days of Operation Epic Fury cost $16.5 billion, a 0.057% of
American GDP. One tenth of Britain's burden for a far more strategically
important region.
And even in the worst case scenario, where we were projecting at maximum burn
rate for an entire year, which is not going to happen, and multiplying it by
100% just to be pessimistic, even then we get a number that is only 1.26% of the
total GDP of the United States, which is what Britain spent just to maintain
their normal garrisons in peacetime. Britain was being bled, and the US is
rounding an error.
Zakaria's "Britain as cautionary tale" construct has become the standard
language for American passivity. A way to sound historically informed while
arguing for strategic passivity. The actual lesson of hegemonic change is not
that empires fall because they overextend themselves. It is that empires fall
when they misunderstand which threat is existential.
Grand strategy is about prioritization, as Zakaria argues. Zakaria just gets it
wrong as to what is finite and what is peripheral. Iran with a nuclear weapon
and a web of proxies is not a peripheral issue in the 21st century. It is the
21st century.