English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News
& Editorials
For January 29-30/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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30.26.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
I am among you as one who serves. ‘You are those
who have stood by me in my trials; and I confer on you, just as my Father has
conferred on me
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 22/24-30: “A dispute also
arose among them as to which one of them was to be regarded as the greatest. But
he said to them, ‘The kings of the Gentiles lord it over them; and those in
authority over them are called benefactors. But not so with you; rather the
greatest among you must become like the youngest, and the leader like one who
serves. For who is greater, the one who is at the table or the one who serves?
Is it not the one at the table? But I am among you as one who serves. ‘You are
those who have stood by me in my trials; and I confer on you, just as my Father
has conferred on me, a kingdom, so that you may eat and drink at my table in my
kingdom, and you will sit on thrones judging the twelve tribes of Israel.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January
29-30/2026
The
Necessity of Ending Lebanon’s “Battleground” Status and Recognizing Israel/Elias
Bejjani/January 25/2026
Video Link to a distinctive interview with the remarkable Rasha Al-Ameer, sister
of the martyr Lokman Slim
Video link – Commentary by journalist Ali Hamadeh from his YouTube
channel/Lebanon:
“Video link/commentary by journalist Ali Hamadeh from his YouTube channel
Jordanian army chief holds talks with Lebanese leaders in Beirut
War with Hezbollah has not ended, ex-Israeli general says
Israeli army: Qassem's decision to link his fate to Iran a strategic mistake
Berri says Hezbollah arms not behind assassinations
Reconstruction on agenda of Friday's cabinet session
Fayad decries 'systematic strangulation of our people' from Israel and 'from
within'
French ambassador: Time has come for state to monopolize arms
Lebanese army delegation heads to US ahead of Haykal's visit
Report: Hezbollah says Qassem remarks 'religious', no intention to start a war
German prosecutors seize assets in Salameh fraud probe
Al Habtoor Group exits Lebanon and lays off employees after dispute with
authorities
Report: Arms 'freezing' proposal still on the table
Report: US presses Doha to drop south rebuilding from aid package
French envoy discusses Lebanon with Qatari PM in Doha
Lebanese nervous as Israel’s ‘extremely harsh’ conditions loom/Dr. Dania
Koleilat Khatib/January 29/2026
Lebanon’s crisis and the need for a grand national vision/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al
Arabiya English/29 January/2026
Hezbollah: We will not remain neutral if Islamic Republic endangered /David
Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/January 29/2026 |
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on January
29-30/2026
Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests, sources say
US sends additional warship to Middle East amid Iran tensions
Trump Says ‘Time Running Out’ as Iran Threatens Tough Response
Mohammed bin Salman Receives Hillary Clinton in Riyadh
EU designates Iran’s IRGC a terrorist organization in policy shift
Iran’s IRGC to carry out live-fire exercises in Strait of Hormuz amid US
tensions
Russia says is ready to evacuate its staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant if
necessary
Iran rounds up thousands in mass arrest campaign after crushing unrest, sources
say
Turkey to offer mediation on US–Iran tensions as Araghchi visits
Trump says Hamas set to disarm in Gaza deal progress
Red Cross transfers 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza
Israel releases 15 Palestinian bodies as truce deal shifts to next phase
Israeli army acknowledges around 70,000 Palestinians killed during Gaza war
Trump orders re-opening of Venezuela airspace
US threatens late-night, daytime talk shows over politician interviews,
commissioner says
Hegseth expected to skip NATO ministers’ meeting next month, sources say
Ukraine working with SpaceX to stop Russian drones’ use of Starlink, Kyiv says
Afghanistan launches $100 million food security program as crisis deepens
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on January
29-30/2026
In the
Saudi Arabia-UAE rivalry, the Saudis are wrong/Michael Rubin/Washington
Examiner/January 29/2026
Why Is Saudi Arabia Abandoning Peace?/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/The National
Interest/January 29/2026
Former NSC senior director: Trump ‘will have to do something militarily’ in
Iran/Sophie Brams/The Hill/January 29/2026
Iran and its proxies threaten retaliation against US and Israel amid US military
buildup/
Janatan Sayeh and Bridget Toomey/FDD's Long War Journal/January 29/2026
Iran’s Executions Have Not Stopped/Janatan Sayeh/FDD/January 29/2026
President Trump, Stop Saudi Arabia's Poisonous Campaign Against Jews and the
Abraham Accords/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/January 29/2026
Beyond rethinking: Why the US-Saudi partnership demands a new analytical
lens/Abdullah F. Alrebh/Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January
29-30/2026
The Necessity of Ending Lebanon’s “Battleground” Status and Recognizing
Israel
Elias Bejjani/January 25/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/151479/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4GdPMkWXbs
As the saying goes, “Once the cause is
known, wonder ceases.” The true tragedy of Lebanon is not merely its security,
economic, or social collapse, but the suicidal persistence in remaining a
perpetual “battleground” and a regional “mailbox.” The core cause of this
national disintegration lies in the absence of faith among Lebanon’s ruling
class: political leaders, party bosses turned corporate oligarchs, hypocritical
Arabists, leftists, and self-proclaimed nationalists. They do not believe in the
concept of the state, nor in Lebanon as a sovereign entity with a distinct role
and mission. More dangerously, they lack the most basic standards of ethics and
genuine patriotism.
The so-called “Resistance” in Lebanon was never a Lebanese project. It was a
façade for cross-border agendas that transformed the country into a hostage.
This tragic farce began in the late 1960s, when criminal and terrorist
Palestinian organizations violated Lebanese sovereignty under the banner of
“liberation.” They were assisted by the so-called “National Movement”—a
coalition of leftists, Arabists, Baathists, and ideologues who harbored
hostility toward Lebanon as a state, a message, and a beacon of freedom—thereby
tearing apart the national fabric.
This was followed by the barbaric Syrian Baathist occupation, which imposed its
tutelage under the same slogans and ushered in one of the darkest eras in
Lebanon’s modern history. Since 2005, the Iranian-backed, sectarian, and
reckless Hezbollah militia has tightened its grip on the Lebanese people,
turning the South, the Suburbs, the Bekaa, and other regions into weapons
depots, tunnel networks, and missile platforms serving the agenda of Tehran’s
mullahs.
The insistence on keeping Lebanon in a permanent state of war with Israel—at a
time when Arab states are negotiating, reconciling, and prioritizing their
national interests—has produced devastating consequences:
The reduction of the state to mere “geography” used for settling the scores of
others, led by Iran, Syria, and the local, regional, and international merchants
of the “Resistance” illusion.
The impossibility of building a stable economy or attracting investment in a
country held hostage by a trigger finger controlled by foreign powers, capable
of igniting a war of total destruction at any moment.
Lebanon’s transformation into a “terrorist island” outside international
legitimacy and the rule of law, depriving it of peace, sovereignty,
independence, and development.
The entrenchment of a culture of death and war that drives Lebanon’s finest
youth into exile, leaving the country to militias, mobs, and political
opportunists.
Transitioning Lebanon into a “normal state” through mutual recognition between
Lebanon and Israel is not an act of treason. On the contrary, it represents the
highest form of patriotism and political realism. The benefits are clear and
tangible:
Finalizing borders and dismantling the fabricated pretexts of the Shebaa Farms
and Kfarchouba Hills, long exploited as an evil & fake tags “Shirt of Uthman” to
justify the persistence of illegal weapons.
Securing safe investment in offshore gas and oil resources and opening the door
to economic, commercial, and tourism cooperation in a region moving toward “zero
problems.”
Ending the so-called “state of war,” thereby stripping all militias of any
claimed legitimacy and restoring exclusive sovereign decision-making to the
Lebanese Army.
Most importantly, halting Lebanon’s role as a “factory of death” and restoring
its historic function as a cultural and civilizational bridge between East and
West.
In conclusion, Lebanon’s recovery of its identity and sovereignty begins with
full border control, strict adherence to international resolutions—including the
latest ceasefire agreement—and the rejection of the false narrative that
“Lebanon must always be the last to sign a peace accord with Israel.” Today,
Lebanese citizens are called upon to break free from political herd mentality
and the worship of “Iscariot” leaders who feast on national humiliation and
Lebanese blood.
Liberating Lebanon from the grip of “Temple Traders” and the culture of
appeasing the strong while shifting loyalties for personal gain requires the
courage to speak a simple truth: we want a homeland, not a battleground; a
state, not a private farm; and a just peace that ends nearly six decades of
deception, false heroism, and revolutionary delusions. The solution lies in
mutual recognition between Lebanon and the State of Israel, Under the auspices
of the United Nations and the international community, Lebanon will return to
being "a land of message, creativity, freedoms and stars," not "a land of
graves."
Video Link to a distinctive
interview with the remarkable Rasha Al-Ameer, sister of the martyr Lokman Slim
Ppatriotic, emotional, faith-based, sovereign, and humanitarian reading on the
fifth anniversary of her brother’s assasination…This is what emerged in the
investigation, and the President knows the killers
Nidaa Al-Watan YouTube platform/29 January/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/151639/
“Nidaa Al-Sinin” is a program on Nidaa Al-Watan that hosts figures from various
fields who recount their experiences across many stages of Lebanon’s history, in
dialogues conducted by journalist Najm Al-Hashem.
On the fifth anniversary of the assassination of Lokman Slim, his sister Rasha
Al-Ameer recounts to “Nidaa Al-Sinin” the bond of challenge between the father
Mohsen Slim and the son Lokman, and the family’s relationship with Haret Hreik,
and she says: this is how they pursued him, kidnapped him, and killed him.
What is the relationship between his assassination and the port explosion?
Al-Ameer points out that the President Joseph knows the killers one by one, and
says: “This is what I ask of him.”
Prepared and presented by: Najm Al-Hashem
Timestamps
0:00 Introduction
01:07 The link between father and son
03:45 Where did the father and mother meet?
05:20 The Dahieh multiplied and became cities
07:02 Her father Mohsen was subjected to threats
10:00 The steadfastness of Lokman Slim
12:47 Residence in France without citizenship
14:50 Rasha Al-Ameer: Wilayat al-Faqih brought Lebanon to where it is today
20:00 Disabled security agencies
26:38 Divine justice took the major killers of Lokman
30:40 What is new in the investigation?
37:53 A message from Rasha Al-Ameer to the judiciary
41:20 A message from Lokman’s sister to Lokman
Video link – Commentary by
journalist Ali Hamadeh from his YouTube channel/Lebanon:
“Moving toward a surprise attack on the Party first”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDXcmIyPizA
30 January 2026
Hebrew-language media and Israeli research centers have returned to focusing in
detail on the Party’s file in Lebanon.
Hebrew assessments indicate that the Party possesses at least 25,000 rockets and
tens of thousands of fighters, and that it is likely they will become involved
in the regional confrontation and will receive orders soon.
“Video
link/commentary by journalist Ali Hamadeh from his YouTube channel
The missile-carrying destroyer ‘USS Roosevelt’ closely monitors the Party in
Lebanon! And the U.S. President issues a final public warning to Iran that may
be the last before a comprehensive attack!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrc1pxD6CS0
"The missile-carrying destroyer 'USS Roosevelt' is closely monitoring the Party
[Hezbollah] in Lebanon! And the American President issues a final public warning
to Iran that may be the last before the total attack!""In the warning, there is
an indication of Washington's readiness to negotiate on the basis of ending the
nuclear program!""Trump speaks of a second 'Armada' (naval fleet), stronger than
the first, on its way to the vicinity of Iran.""The advanced multi-mission
destroyer 'USS Roosevelt' has arrived off the northern Israeli shores, not far
from the southern Lebanese shores (an eye on the Party)!""A social media dispute
between Trump and Nouri al-Maliki following the nomination of al-Maliki for the
Prime Minister post by parties and factions close to Iran, while President
Donald Trump rejects [this] with threats!
"Elias Bejjani: "What is President
Trump waiting for.. to save us and save humanity from the Iranian Mullahs and
their terrorist and criminal party in Lebanon, called—blasphemously and
sacrilegiously—'Hezbollah'. May God strengthen Trump to rid the world of these
demons."
Jordanian army chief holds
talks with Lebanese leaders in Beirut
Arab News/January 29, 2026
LONDON: Jordan’s army chief met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the
Presidential Palace in Beirut on Thursday to discuss security cooperation. Maj.
Gen. Yousef Huneiti, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Jordan, addressed
regional developments and security challenges, and ways to contribute to the
stability of the region. He also met the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces,
Gen. Rodolphe Haykal. They discussed military cooperation and the exchange of
expertise and training to improve readiness and efficiency, according to the
Petra news agency. Huneiti highlighted the strong relationship between the
Jordanian and Lebanese military institutions. Haykal commended the Jordan Armed
Forces’ role in supporting regional security and stability, as reported by
Petra.
War with Hezbollah has not
ended, ex-Israeli general says
Naharnet/29 January/2026
The war with Hezbollah has not ended, a retired Israeli Brigadier General said.
"The public mistakenly thinks that the war has ended. That is false. We will
enter a period of renewed fighting on all fronts. Lebanon relates directly to
what is happening right now in Iran," Amir Avivi said Wednesday. "What is
certain is that if Hezbollah opens fire, the IDF will strike them until they
collapse," he vowed, adding that toppling the Iranian regime will make all its
proxies crumble.
Israeli army: Qassem's decision to link his fate to Iran a
strategic mistake
Naharnet/29 January/2026
An Israeli military source stressed Thursday that the Israeli army “will not
allow Hezbollah to possess weapons inside Lebanon,” adding that “the Lebanese
government is trying to dismantle Hezbollah but its effectiveness is
weak.”Hezbollah chief Sheikh “Naim Qassem's decision last week to link his fate
to Iran was a strategic mistake,” the source told Al-Arabiya’s Al-Hadath
channel, referring to Qassem’s latest remarks about the possibility of
supporting Iran militarily in the event of a new war. “Hezbollah's missile
capabilities have been significantly damaged, but not eliminated,” the Israeli
source added, noting that the Israeli army is “continuously weakening
Hezbollah.” “Hezbollah is insisting on holding onto its weapons, and that is the
problem,” the source said. Noting that “Hezbollah is trying to rebuild itself,
while the Amal Movement is not,” the Israeli source pointed out that “the Amal
Movement is not being attacked because it is not conducting military
activity.”“We are aware of friction between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement in
the Tyre area of southern Lebanon,” the source added. Lamenting that
“Hezbollah is trying to maintain its weapons as long as the (Lebanese) army does
not impose its control,” the Israeli source alleged the presence of “covert
Hezbollah activities on the front line.”“We will not allow the return of the
Hezbollah threat to our borders,” the source stressed, claiming that “Hezbollah
is trying to build an infrastructure to restore its fighting
capabilities.”“Hezbollah is preparing for a future military confrontation (and)
… is trying to rebuild itself under the guise of helping the residents of
southern Lebanon,” the Israeli military source added. The source also claimed
that a "major event" linked to “Hezbollah's liaison operatives” is taking place
within villages in southern Lebanon, alleging that “Hezbollah is working to
rebuild various systems within the villages of southern Lebanon.”
Berri says Hezbollah arms not behind assassinations
Naharnet/29 January/2026
MP Elias Hankash of the Kataeb Party said Thursday in an address before
parliament that “the issue of illegitimate weapons is neither a theoretical
issue nor an ordinary political dispute.”"It has been rather linked in the
collective conscience of the Lebanese people to a series of assassinations that
claimed the life of martyr (ex-)PM Rafik Hariri, as well as national leaders
from the March 14 forces who were colleagues in this parliament, including
Pierre Gemayel, Gebran Tueni, Walid Eido and Mohammad Chatah, in addition to
security officials such as Wissam al-Hassan, Samer Hanna and others,” Hankash
said.
He added that “these weapons were also linked to the May 7 (2008) clashes, the
violations that undermined civil peace, the smuggling, narcotics and Captagon
networks, and the erosion of the state's image, economy and security.”Hezbollah
MPs objected against Hankash’s remarks, demanding that he unveil the
investigation results regarding the killing of ex-minister Pierre Gemayel and
asking him which weapons he was referring to. This prompted the intervention of
Speaker Nabih Berri, telling Hankash: “The weapons you are talking about are not
the weapons of the Resistance."
Reconstruction on agenda of Friday's cabinet session
Naharnet/29 January/2026
Cabinet will convene Friday in Baabda with the reconstruction of war-hit regions
on its agenda, Speaker Nabih Berri said in a parliament session. The World Bank
estimates the costs of reconstruction and recovery at $11 billion. In August
2025, Lebanon signed a $250 million loan agreement with the World Bank for the
reconstruction of war-hit regions in south and east Lebanon. The initial loan is
designed to support the urgent repair and reconstruction of critical public
infrastructure and lifeline services. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said earlier
this week, as he visited Tripoli in north Lebanon, that his "heart is also with
the south" and that he will soon visit it to announce a package of
reconstruction projects that "we will begin implementing as soon as possible."
Fayad decries 'systematic strangulation of our people' from Israel and 'from
within'
Naharnet/29 January/2026
Hezbollah MP Ali Fayad accused Israel on Thursday of failing to meet its
obligations, despite Hezbollah's compliance with disarming south of the Litani
River. "We have committed to disarming south of the Litani river and not a
single bullet was fired but it was met with nothing in return," Fayad said as
parliament convened for a third and last day in a row to discuss the 2026 state
budget. Fayad also accused domestic rivals of "pouncing on us from within." "We
are worried and angry. The Israelis are assassinating us daily, while at the
same time, there is domestically a systematic strangulation of our people," he
said. He accused the ministers of foreign affairs and justice and the central
bank governor of suffocating Hezbollah and its support base. Israel has kept up
its attacks on south and east Lebanon, despite a ceasefire reached in November
2024, and is occupying five hills it deems "strategic" in south Lebanon. Earlier
this month, the army announced the completion of the first phase of Hezbollah's
disarmament -- south of the Litani river. But Israel says the Lebanese army's
efforts are "insufficient".
French ambassador: Time has come for state to monopolize
arms
Naharnet/29 January/2026
French Ambassador to Lebanon Hervé Magro has stressed that "the current stage
requires a fundamental internal step, namely the restoration of the Lebanese
state's monopoly on the use of force."In an interview with An-Nahar newspaper,
distributed by the French Embassy in Beirut, he added: "The time has come to
implement this principle, in line with the stances of President Joseph Aoun and
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam."The French ambassador declined to engage in detailed
discussions about arms containment or disarmament, considering that "these are
sovereign decisions that belong solely to the Lebanese, while France's role is
limited to support and monitoring." Regarding the possibility of a new Israeli
war on Lebanon, he said: "Nothing is inevitable in politics, and war is not an
unavoidable fate, even if the ability to avoid it is not always guaranteed.
However, the alternative to the political process is a vicious cycle of
successive conflicts, as recent years in the region have demonstrated."On the
issue of supporting the Lebanese Army and the Paris conference scheduled for
March 5, he said: "Were it not for the American and Saudi commitment, the
conference date would not have been set in the first place." He explained that
"the conference aims to coordinate international support for the Lebanese Armed
Forces, both to meet their immediate needs and to support them in the long term,
especially in light of talk about a transitional phase that may witness changes
in the role of UNIFIL."
Lebanese army delegation heads to US ahead of Haykal's
visit
Naharnet/29 January/2026
A Lebanese Army delegation departed for the United States on Wednesday to meet
with American military officials, ahead of the Army Commander's planned visit to
Washington. The delegation will prepare for General Rodolphe Haykal's visit next
week and will meet with head of the 'Mechanism' committee General Joseph
Clearfield, Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper reported Thursday. The next 'Mechanism'
meeting will take place in Naqoura on February 25, the daily added. Haykal will
visit Washington from February 3 to 5, media reports said and will present to
Washington detailed military maps, and a list of Hezbollah sites and tunnels.
According to local TV network MTV, Haykal will also give deadlines for the
implementation of Hezbollah's disarmament plan. In November, a visit by Haykal
was cancelled just hours before he was set to depart for Washington, after U.S.
officials and senators criticized the Lebanese Army and its chief, accusing them
of not doing enough to disarm Hezbollah. The cancellation included all
high-level meetings at the Pentagon and Congress, as well as an official
reception at the Lebanese Embassy.
Report: Hezbollah says Qassem remarks 'religious', no
intention to start a war
Naharnet/29 January/2026
Hezbollah has clarified to President Joseph Aoun, through unofficial channels,
that Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem’s latest remarks about supporting Iran
militarily were “purely religious, not political,” a media report said.
“We do not want to start a war,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper quoted Hezbollah
as telling Aoun. “This informal response did not satisfy Baabda and was deemed
insufficient by the president, who is deeply dismayed and annoyed by Hezbollah’s
performance and Qassem’s remarks in particular,” the daily said.
“Accordingly, no meeting will take place between Aoun and (MP Mohammad) Raad
until the Presidency receives an official clarification from Hezbollah regarding
the Secretary-General’s statements,” the newspaper added, noting that Aoun has
left the task of communicating with Hezbollah to Speaker Nabih Berri. “Notably,
during his last meeting with President Aoun at the Presidential Palace, Berri
expressed his own irritation from Qassem’s remarks and the campaign being waged
against the president. He stood by Aoun, explicitly declaring his support,”
Nidaa al-Watan said. “The south is still suffering to this hour from the
repercussions of the Gaza 'Support War' and has yet to heal its wounds," the
daily quoted Berri as saying. Also following Qassem’s latest speech, Berri
expressed his solidarity with Aoun, assuring him that he would attempt to play
the role of the "big brother" tasked with speaking to the "younger brother"
(Hezbollah) regarding this issue, Nidaa al-Watan said.
German prosecutors seize assets in Salameh fraud probe
Agence France Presse/29 January/2026
German prosecutors said Thursday they had seized assets worth around 35 million
euros ($42 million) as part of a money-laundering probe targeting Lebanon's
former central bank governor Riad Salameh and four other people. Salameh headed
Lebanon's central bank between 1993 and 2023 and has faced numerous accusations
including embezzlement, money laundering and tax evasion in separate probes in
Lebanon and abroad. He has denied any wrongdoing.Prosecutors in Munich said in a
statement that "high-value commercial properties in Munich and Hamburg, as well
as shares in a real estate company in Duesseldorf" had been seized as part of
their investigation. They allege that Salameh, acting with his brother Raja,
"embezzled funds totalling more than $330 million to the detriment of the
Lebanese central bank and thereby at the expense of the Lebanese state, in order
to illegally enrich himself" between 2004 and 2015. The funds originated from
financial transactions between the Lebanese central bank and commercial banks in
Lebanon. The money was laundered through a shell company in the British Virgin
Islands and used by Raja Salameh and three other co-accused for investments in
Germany and elsewhere in Europe, prosecutors say.A court in Munich will now
decide whether the seized property can be permanently confiscated. German
prosecutors opened their investigation in 2021 and have been working with
investigators from France and Luxembourg. Salameh has been accused of being a
key culprit in Lebanon's economic crash, which the World Bank has called one of
the worst in recent history, but he has defended his legacy and insisted he is a
"scapegoat". He was arrested in Lebanon in 2024 and indicted in April 2025 for
allegedly embezzling $44 million from the central bank. In September he was
freed after posting more than $14 million in bail and on condition of a one-year
travel ban.
Al Habtoor Group exits Lebanon and lays off employees after dispute with
authorities
Associated Press/29 January/2026
A conglomerate based in the United Arab Emirates said Wednesday it is closing
its operations in Lebanon and laying off all employees following a dispute with
authorities in the crisis-hit country. The announcement by the Dubai-based Al
Habtoor Group came two days after it said it will take legal action against
Lebanese authorities over claims of investment losses of $1.7 billion. Al
Habtoor Group's businesses in Lebanon were hit hard by the country's worst
economic meltdown in late 2019, which deprived people and businesses of
accessing money stuck in the banking sector. Lebanon also suffered damage during
the 14-month Israeli war that ended with a ceasefire in November 2024, with the
World Bank estimating the cost of reconstruction and recovery at $11 billion. Al
Habtoor Group said its decision comes against the backdrop of prolonged
instability, ongoing hostile campaigns, public attacks and defamatory actions
directed at it and its businesses, as well as the broader legal proceedings
underway between the group and the Lebanese government. "Al Habtoor Group finds
itself compelled to make the decision to cease its operations in Lebanon and
halt the ongoing financial drain, and proceed with the termination of all
employees," the group said in a statement. It added that the decision was taken
to protect its interests and prevent further "unjustified losses."Officials at
Al Habtoor Group's offices in Beirut referred all questions about the number of
employees being laid off to the company's headquarters, which did not
immediately respond to a request for comment. Officials at Lebanon's prime
minister's office were not immediately available for comment. Al Habtoor Group
runs, among other things, a hotel in a Beirut suburb as well as Habtoor Land, a
giant theme park east of the Lebanese capital. Last year, it reversed plans to
dismantle the Metropolitan Palace Hotel in Beirut.
Report: Arms 'freezing' proposal still on the table
Naharnet/29 January/2026
Cairo is viewing the developments in Lebanon with concern, particularly
regarding potential actions by the Israeli side, informed sources in Cairo said.
The sources explained to al-Akhbar newspaper that the Egyptian approach stems
from “an effort to obstruct Israel's attempts to mobilize American support for
launching a new strike against Lebanon.” According to these sources, the
proposals carried by Egyptian envoys to Beirut remain on the table. They are
based on the idea of "completing the process of eliminating armed presence in
various Lebanese regions and reaching an understanding with Hezbollah, under
which it pledges not to engage in any military action against Israel; meanwhile,
its weapons would remain under the supervision of the Lebanese Army until
political conditions mature to discuss the matter of final disarmament."
Report: US presses Doha to drop south rebuilding from aid
package
Naharnet/29 January/2026
U.S. pressure has prompted Qatar to drop an article on reconstructing a number
of southern towns from the Qatari aid package that was announced on Monday, al-Akhbar
newspaper reported on Wednesday. “The U.S. is still preventing the Lebanese
government from launching an official call for reconstruction or establishing a
fund for the contributions of donor countries, linking this step to the
fulfillment of an Israeli demand for the disarmament of Hezbollah across
Lebanon,” an informed source told the daily.
Iraq had tried in May to push for setting up an Arab fund for reconstructing
what was destroyed by Israel in Lebanon and Gaza, but the proposal was rejected.
The Lebanese government also snubbed an Iraqi suggestion for opening the door to
receiving aid dedicated to reconstruction.
French envoy discusses Lebanon with Qatari PM in Doha
Naharnet/29 January/2026
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin
Jassim Al Thani has met in Doha with the French special envoy to Lebanon,
Jean-Yves Le Drian. "During the meeting, they reviewed bilateral relations and
ways to support and strengthen them, discussed the latest developments in
Lebanon, and addressed a number of issues of common interest,” the Qatari
Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. The statement continued:
"During the meeting, the Foreign Minister emphasized that Lebanon's stability is
a fundamental pillar for the stability of the region, stressing the need for all
parties to adhere to U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 and respect the full
sovereignty of the Lebanese Republic over its territory."He also reiterated
Qatar's condemnation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, emphasizing “the need for
the Security Council to assume its responsibilities to stop these violations and
preserve Lebanon's stability.”The Qatari minister also commended “the pivotal
role of the Quintet Group in supporting Lebanon, noting in this context that the
State of Qatar will continue to work closely with its partners to ensure
coordinated efforts to preserve Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity,
and to support its recovery and development."
Lebanese nervous as Israel’s ‘extremely harsh’ conditions
loom
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/January 29/2026
Following the November 2024 ceasefire that supposedly ended Israel’s aggression
on Lebanon, a “mechanism” was put in place to ensure the execution of the
agreement. While Lebanon has kept its side of the bargain and not fired a single
shot at Israel, Tel Aviv has not stopped bombing Lebanon. Beirut has been
catering to all of Israel’s whims. But this has not been enough. A meeting of
the mechanism committee scheduled for Jan. 14 was canceled without a valid
reason. The Lebanese are stressing. Are Israel and the US trying to force them
into an even more compromising agreement?
The mechanism that is supposed to monitor the ceasefire has five members:
France, the US, Israel, Lebanon and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. Lebanese
President Joseph Aoun recently added former ambassador to Washington Simon Karam
to the Lebanese team, despite Hezbollah’s objection to a civilian discussing
security issues. The group considered Karam’s inclusion an “additional blunder”
and an indicator that the talks might extend beyond the planned security
arrangements. This increased Hezbollah’s insecurity. Is the Lebanese state
scheming with Israel for normalization or to sideline it? From their
perspective, the presence of a civilian on the committee means that the
political aspect could be discussed. Otherwise, if it was only security issues
on the agenda, a military negotiator could do the job. The inclusion of a
civilian who has anti-Hezbollah views has increased the tension and the mistrust
between the government and the group.
The Lebanese are worried about the potential for an all-out war on Lebanon if
the ceasefire mechanism falls apart
Lebanon is worried about any freezing of the mechanism because it is currently
the only method to limit Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The Lebanese are worried
about the potential for an all-out war on Lebanon if the mechanism falls apart.
The committee faced another hurdle when the US representative was reportedly put
on administrative leave as a result of her intimate relationship with a Lebanese
banker, which potentially created a conflict of interest. A new tentative date
of Feb. 25 has been set for the next committee meeting.
Lebanon is nervous. What are Tel Aviv and Washington scheming for the country?
Karam has admitted that Israel has put forward “extremely harsh
conditions.”Israel is insisting on two conditions that are unrealistic. One of
them is the total disarmament of Hezbollah. Disarmament by force might lead to a
civil war. This is too big a risk for the Lebanese government to take and the
Americans and the Israelis know that. So far, the Lebanese army has successfully
removed the group’s weapons from the area south of the Litani River, in
accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Hence, there is no threat
to Israel. In November, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem even gave a
televised speech in which he assured Israel there would be no threat to the
settlements in Galilee. The other problematic condition is the proposed economic
zone in the south, which will reportedly be called the “Trump Economic Zone.”
What does it involve? US President Donald Trump has promoted trade deals and
economic integration as a way to solve disputes around the world. From the
American perspective, as soon as the south of the Litani is demilitarized, it
can be turned into an economic zone, with factories and office blocks replacing
missile launchers.This is a way to make sure Hezbollah does not rebuild its
military infrastructure, as it did after the 2006 ceasefire agreement. Given
that regular house inspections would face objections from the locals, it would
be easier to remove the houses altogether and replace them with factories.
From the US perspective, as soon as the south of the Litani is demilitarized, it
can be turned into an economic zone
However, what would that mean for the southerners? Would their homes be
demolished to make way for factories? Would they only be able to visit their
land as laborers? Would a resident-free economic zone mean a population
transfer? Probably. There is another catch. In December, there were talks
regarding “small joint projects” between Israel and Lebanon. The word “joint” is
very suspicious for the Shiite faction, the population of the south and
Hezbollah. Does that mean Israel will have a foothold in the south of Lebanon?
Will this be legalized under the guise of economic projects? This is definitely
not what the Lebanese want. They want a withdrawal of Israeli forces and
reconstruction of the south so that people can go back to their homes. However,
Lebanon is only one piece of the regional puzzle. To understand the
American-Israeli plan, one should have a broader perspective, including the
Abraham Accords. Since Oct. 7, 2023, and the genocide on Gaza that followed,
there has been pushback against the Abraham Accords project. While the US was
counting on Syria to normalize, the Syrians have rejected this several times.
They insist that normalization will not happen unless Israel returns the Golan
Heights, which Tel Aviv will not do. Syria has gained leverage due to the
support it has received from Saudi Arabia and Turkiye.However, Trump likes to be
a winner. Or at least he likes the optics of winning. If you want to secure a
win, you choose a weak adversary — like Lebanon. Given that Lebanon has no
leverage at all, it is the easiest target for expanding the Abraham Accords.
There has been talk that the US and Israel want to replace the mechanism
committee with direct discussions at a higher political level between Lebanon
and Israel under American patronage, similar to the ongoing talks between Israel
and Syria. However, unlike Syria, which has strong regional backing, Lebanon has
no support at all. It would be crushed in the negotiations. It would have to
accept Israel’s “extremely harsh conditions.” The Lebanese are nervous. They are
right to be. In the meantime, the Lebanese state has not shown any decisiveness
or strategy to face this looming scenario. Nevertheless, the answer could be
easier than one might think: Lebanon, like Syria, could ask for help from within
the region.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
Lebanon’s crisis and the need for a grand national vision
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
Once celebrated as a commercial hub of the Eastern Mediterranean, a center of
finance, education, tourism, and cultural life, Lebanon has instead become a
case study in economic collapse and political paralysis. Over the past several
years, ordinary citizens have watched their currency disintegrate, and economy
worsens. Yet Lebanon’s crisis is not merely financial. It is deeply political,
structural, and institutional. The collapse of the economy did not occur in
isolation; it was produced by decades of mismanagement, corruption, sectarian
power-sharing arrangements that reward paralysis, and the absence of a unified
national project. Any serious discussion of Lebanon’s future must therefore
begin with a recognition that the problem is simultaneously economic and
political – and that neither dimension can be solved without addressing the
other.
A narrow focus on financial aid or short-term stabilization would be
insufficient. What Lebanon requires is a comprehensive, long-term vision: one
that rebuilds its economy on sustainable foundations, restores the authority and
legitimacy of the state, and redefines the relationship between political power,
security, and citizenship. Without such a vision, reforms will remain cosmetic,
crises will recur, and the country will remain vulnerable to both internal decay
and external shocks.
Understanding Lebanon’s economic collapse
For decades, Lebanon relied on an unsustainable financial model: high interest
rates attracted foreign deposits, banks lent heavily to the state, and public
debt ballooned while productivity stagnated. This arrangement created an
illusion of stability while masking deep structural weaknesses.
When confidence finally collapsed, the consequences were devastating. The
banking system froze deposits, effectively confiscating the savings of millions.
The national currency lost most of its value, wiping out purchasing power and
plunging large segments of the population into poverty. Middle-class families
who once lived comfortably found themselves unable to pay school fees, medical
bills, or even basic food expenses. The social impact has been profound. Poverty
rates surged, inequality widened, and entire professional sectors – doctors,
engineers, academics, journalists – began leaving the country in search of
dignity and stability abroad. This “brain drain” further weakens Lebanon’s
prospects for recovery, stripping it of precisely the human capital needed for
reconstruction.
Why the IMF matters, and why it is not enough
The International Monetary Fund has become central to Lebanon’s recovery
narrative. An IMF agreement would unlock financial assistance, restore some
international confidence, and provide a framework for reform. However, the IMF
is not a magic solution. Its role is conditional, technical, and limited. The
Fund demands transparency in public accounts, restructuring of the banking
sector, realistic budgeting, and laws to combat corruption and money laundering.
These are not ideological preferences; they are prerequisites for any
functioning economy. Without them, financial assistance would simply disappear
into the same system that produced the collapse. But IMF support alone cannot
rebuild Lebanon. At best, it can stabilize the patient; it cannot design the
patient’s future. True recovery requires political will, domestic consensus, and
institutional reform that extends far beyond any single financial program.
Rebuilding the financial system
Lebanon must confront its banking system honestly. This means acknowledging
losses, protecting small depositors, and ending the culture of secrecy that
allowed reckless behavior to flourish. A functioning economy cannot exist when
citizens do not trust banks, contracts, or the currency. Financial reform also
requires independent oversight institutions, credible audits, and legal
accountability for misconduct. Without these, confidence – both domestic and
international – will remain absent. In addition, a serious reform agenda must
include: A modern tax system that is fair and enforceable, transparent public
procurement, reduction of waste and clientelism, digitalization of state
services, and professional civil service recruitment based on merit. These
reforms are politically difficult because they threaten entrenched interests.
Yet without them, Lebanon will remain dependent on aid rather than development.
Lebanon must move away from a model based on debt, remittances, and speculation.
Instead, it needs to invest in sectors that generate real value: Tourism, once a
pillar of the economy, agriculture and agro-industry, education and research,
technology and digital services, and renewable energy. Investment in
infrastructure – electricity, ports, telecommunications, transportation – is
essential. Without reliable power and logistics, no private sector can thrive.
Attracting foreign investment and regional capital
Lebanon cannot rebuild using domestic resources alone. It needs foreign capital,
especially from Gulf states, Europe, and the Lebanese diaspora. But investors
are not driven by nostalgia or sympathy. They seek stability, predictability,
and legal protection.
This requires: Independent courts, enforceable contracts, clear regulations,
political stability, security under state control. Without these conditions,
investment will remain limited to short-term speculation rather than long-term
development.
A parallel political power structure: The role of Hezbollah and the question of
state authority. Hezbollah is not merely a political party. It is a heavily
armed organization with independent military capabilities, regional alliances,
and strategic priorities that do not always align with the Lebanese state. This
reality has profound consequences. It weakens the government’s monopoly over
force, complicates foreign relations, and exposes Lebanon to conflicts it does
not control. Investors, tourists, and international partners cannot ignore this
reality when assessing risk.
When a state does not fully control its territory or its security policy,
uncertainty becomes permanent. Border tensions, regional wars, and sanctions
become recurring threats. Insurance costs rise. Trade suffers. Tourism collapses
at the first sign of escalation. In such an environment, sustainable development
is nearly impossible. A long-term vision for Lebanon must include the gradual
restoration of exclusive state authority over weapons and security. This does
not mean civil war or immediate confrontation. It means: Strengthening the
Lebanese Armed Forces, reinforcing state institutions, integrating political
competition into civilian channels, and ending the logic of armed factions as
political actors. Only a sovereign state can plan economically, negotiate
internationally, and protect its citizens equally.
A unified vision for renewal
Lebanon needs more than technical reforms. It needs a story about its future: A
state that serves, not exploits, an economy that produces, not borrows, a
political system that represents, not divides, a country that trades, not
fights. This vision must be articulated clearly, defended politically, and
implemented institutionally. Without it, reforms will remain fragmented and
reversible. Lebanon’s tragedy is not inevitable. It is the result of human
decisions, political structures, and economic choices. That means it can also be
reversed. But recovery will not come from speeches or aid packages alone. It
will come from difficult reforms, the dismantling of corrupt networks, the
rebuilding of state authority, and the courage to imagine a Lebanon that is not
defined by crisis. The alternative is continued decline: more emigration, deeper
poverty, and permanent instability. Lebanon still possesses extraordinary assets
– its people, its diaspora, its cultural capital, and its strategic location.
Whether these assets become the foundation of renewal or the remnants of a lost
country depends on whether a genuine national vision can finally replace
short-term survival and factional politics.
Hezbollah: We will not remain neutral if Islamic Republic
endangered
David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/January 29/2026 |
Hezbollah is arguably the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary and central
extension, having described itself as such in the 1985 Open Letter, the group’s
founding and constitutional document. As a result of this inextricable linkage,
based on the belief that Iran’s Supreme Leader is the divinely guided earthly
vicar of God, any threat to the Iranian regime’s stability, let alone its
existence, is, by its very nature, a threat to Hezbollah as well.
Therefore, Hezbollah has inevitably been casting a wary gaze towards the latest
ongoing nationwide protests in Iran that began on December 28, 2025.
Unsubstantiated claims suggested that the group may have deployed its own
operatives to Iran assist in the regime’s crackdown. However, as far as
verifiable information goes, Hezbollah has, thus far, sufficed with offering
Tehran verbal support while keeping its forces and arsenal in reserve, perhaps
until it senses the regime is under existential threat—either from the protests
or the United States or Israel exploiting the nationwide unrest to inflict a
mortal blow upon their intractable adversary in Tehran.
Regardless of how Hezbollah ultimately chooses to respond to any threats to the
Islamic Republic’s regime, the group and its leadership have made it clear that
neutrality is not an option.
Hezbollah claims the United States controls Iranian anti-regime protests
Hezbollah issued its first official statement on the protests the day after the
Iranian regime organized a demonstration in Tehran by its supporters that was
estimated in the “tens of thousands” on January 12. In the statement, Hezbollah
offered its “salutations” to the “millions” of Iranians whom it alleged “took to
the streets throughout the Islamic Republic in support of the Islamic system and
stability,” claiming they were expressing the people’s “true sentiments by
rallying around the Islamic Republic’s leadership” headed by Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei.
Hezbollah’s statement stressed that Iran had freely chosen its form of
government during the 1979 Revolution, a decision reinforced since then through
“free and fair elections.” However, because, as Hezbollah asserts, this
sovereigntist regime’s very existence stymies American hegemonic and
exploitative ambitions, the group alleged “the United States” was exploiting
protests as part of its “determination to destroy Iran from within and is using
theZionist Entity as a tool of criminality, murder, and chaos to bring down the
popular Islamic regime.”
Hezbollah’s statement, implicitly designed to cast a pall of illegitimacy over
calls for regime change amidst Iran’s nationwide demonstrations, claimed that
the Islamic Republic “respects the right of the people to protest and
demonstrate peacefully.” However, the group alleged that “footage and statements
have proven that America’s and Israel’s agents are embedding themselves in the
protests to transform them into chaos and destruction – including burning
mosques, governmental and security institutions, and destroying public
property.” These actions, Hezbollah said, “are criminal, and have nothing to do
with legitimate demands for improving living conditions or the right to
protest.”
“Trump and Netanyahu,” Hezbollah claimed, were exploiting the leaderless nature
of the demonstrations “to speak on their behalf” while steering them internally
through “a handful of agents serving those who launched the failed 12-day
aggression against Iran—but were exposed and failed miserably.” However, because
American and Israeli objectives run contrary to the genuine will of Iranians,
Hezbollah, the statement said, would continue to “fully support the choice of
the Iranian people and its leadership.” The statement concluded, “God willing,
the Islamic Republic will remain stable, strong, and independent.”
Hezbollah promises to defend Iran if needed
Hezbollah’s second articulation of its position on the protests in Iran came on
January 26, in Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s speech during the
group’s official “gathering in solidarity of the Islamic Republic of Iran and
the dear Iranian people against the Global Arrogance [a dysphemism for the
United States].”
Qassem began his nearly half-hour speech by restating the importance and
centrality of Iran’s supreme leader as God’s earthly vicar, in Hezbollah’s
worldview. “He is our guardian, our leader, who legitimizes our positions in the
face of challenges and regarding our religious obligations. We can neither shed
our blood nor engage in our resistance without his religious
authorization—because blood is a sacred trust, and he is the one who sets the
general course of the whole ummah,” he said. Qassem was thus saying that
Hezbollah remained bound to the ideology of Wilayat al Faqih—the notion of owing
allegiance and obedience to a qualified cleric acting as an earthly ruler of a
properly constituted Islamic state—as its central animating principle.
“Hezbollah believes in the leadership of the Wali al Faqihin belief and
practice,” Qassem said, and all of the group’s positions on domestic or
international affairs stem from it. As the secretary-general implied, Hezbollah
owes this obedience not necessarily to Ali Khamenei, Iran’s current supreme
leader, but to any past or future clerics who have held or will hold the office.
Therefore, Qassem said, US President Donald Trump’s threat to Ali Khamenei was a
direct threat to Hezbollah and the “tens of millions and more” who similarly
adhere to this ideology.
“We cannot ignore this, and it is our collective responsibility and
obligation—as a matter of faith, conviction, and duty—to confront this threat
and take all necessary measures and preparations to do so,” Qassem said. He
further reasoned that because Khamenei’s assassination would pose a threat to
regional stability, Hezbollah remains “concerned regarding this threat—a direct
threat to us as well, in response to which we therefore have every right to do
whatever we deem appropriate to meet the challenge.”
Qassem then restated the position articulated in Hezbollah’s January 13
statement: that Iran’s 1979 Revolution and the endurance of the Islamic regime
it brought to power were the purest expression of the free and independent will
of the Iranian people. The rise of this government, he said, also “constituted
the biggest blow to America and Israel by deposing the Shah, and the project
behind the 1978 Camp David Accords.” As a result, Qassem claimed, the United
States, Israel, and the West instigated the Iraq-Iran War to bring about the
nascent Islamic government’s collapse. However, “Iran endured” and continued to
do so “despite 47 years of sanctions, economic blockade, and pressure,” he
stated. Iran was similarly able to withstand “12 days of American-Israeli
aggression last year through the mutual support and solidarity of the people
with the leadership, the [Islamic Revolution] Guard [Corps], and security
forces” who, “under Ali Khamenei’s leadership (may God prolong his life)
succeeded in remaining steadfast and patient, and thus thwarted the
American-Israeli enemy’s plans,” he said.
Now, Qassem claimed, this threat had not abated but simply changed tactics,
“seeking to bring Iran down from within, embedding in lawful demonstrations
those who murdered, destroyed, committed arson, burned mosques, killed people in
the streets, and … spread chaos.” This effort, he said, had so far resulted in
“3,117 missing or wounded, 590 of whom were these terrorists, and the rest of
whom are from the security forces and the people.” Actual fatality estimates of
Iranian protesters vary, but the latest credible numbers place the number of
dead protesters at 6,126, with many more feared killed.
The United States and Israel, Qassem claimed, were fueling the chaos in Iran
“under the guise of backing the ‘people’s rights,’ even though three million
people alone in Tehran” had allegedly come out “in support of their
self-determination, their leadership.”
Qassem alleged that the United States was fueling this instability as part of
its quest for global domination, “not just in Iran.” Weeks earlier, Hezbollah
had issued several statements claiming that Washington’s intervention in
Venezuela and removal of its leader, Nicolas Maduro, was in service of identical
nefarious objectives. Now, he claimed, the United States was seeking to deprive
Iran of its “right to peaceful nuclear energy, supporting the downtrodden, and
building an independent republic.” That, he said, was why the United States and
Israel were seeking to “destroy the Resistance project” in “Lebanon, Gaza, Iran,
and Syria,” as part of “a single colonial project.”
Qassem then turned to the question of whether Hezbollah would intervene in an
“Israeli and American war on Iran,” saying that regardless of how such a war
played out, Hezbollah was also “in the crosshairs.” He continued, “Therefore, we
are determined to defend ourselves and will choose how to act at the appropriate
time, by intervening or not, and the specifics will be determined by the
prevailing circumstances at the time. We are not neutral. But how we will act
will be determined by the battle, and we will make our determinations based on
what serves our interests.” The “imbalance of power” between Hezbollah and its
Axis of Resistance allies vs. the United States and Israel, Qassem said, was
irrelevant to Hezbollah’s calculations.
Qassem rejected the notion that Hezbollah’s intervention would insert Lebanon
into a foreign conflict, stressing that American and Israeli designs to “subsume
Lebanon into the Israeli entity and give away Lebanese lands to Israel” had
already made Lebanon an unwilling party. Hezbollah’s beliefs, he said, required
it to prefer death in dignity than life in subjugation, and the group would,
therefore, continue to reject “coerced peace” with Israel and the American
“expansionism witnessed in Greenland, Europe, Canada, and Venezuela in the name
of American national security.”
Therefore, Qassem said, “This time, war on Iran could ignite the entire region.”
He continued, “Iran has helped us for 42, 43 years, and still supports our
rights to our land, while America, Israel, and their allies want to force our
country [Lebanon] to abandon its sources of strength,” a reference to the calls
for Hezbollah’s disarmament.” Qassem said that for Hezbollah to adopt any other
stance other than intervening to support Iran would be to “facilitate” this harm
to Lebanon. “Surrender will cost us everything, whereas defense will leave us
the hope of many possibilities,” he said. Death, Qassem said, would not deter
Hezbollah, because “souls belong to God and only He can determine when they
depart our bodies. But maintaining our dignity and pride is in our hands, and we
will not relinquish them, for they are a sacred trust.”
Qassem concluded his speech by again offering salutations to the “Islamic
Republic of Iran.” He then turned “to the Iranian people,” describing them as
“the crown jewel.” “We are with you, and you are with us. God willing, Imam
Khamenei, may God Almighty protect and preserve you, we will always be with you.
We ask God Almighty to grant you success in handing over the banner directly to
the Imam of our time, may our souls be sacrificed for the dust beneath his
feet,” Qassem said.
**David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on January
29-30/2026
Trump weighs Iran strikes to
inspire renewed protests, sources say
Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted
strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, Reuters reported
on Thursday citing multiple sources, even as regional officials said air power
alone would not topple the clerical rulers. Two US sources familiar with the
discussions told Reuters Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change”
after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month,
killing thousands of people. To do so, he was looking at options to hit
commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to
give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security
buildings, they said. Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of
action including whether to take the military path, one of the sources and a US
official said. The second US source said the options being discussed by Trump’s
aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact,
possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach US allies in the Middle
East or its nuclear enrichment programs. Iran has been unwilling to negotiate
restrictions on the missiles, which it sees as its only deterrence against
Israel, the first source said.. The arrival of a US aircraft carrier and
supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s
capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened
intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Reuters spoke to more than a dozen people for this account of the high-stakes
deliberations over Washington’s next moves regarding Iran. Some regional and
Western officials whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they
were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, US strikes
could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by
authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Alex Vatanka, director of the
Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, told Reuters that without large-scale
military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”Trump urged
Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons,
warning that any future US attack would be “far worse” than a June bombing
campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an
“armada” sailing to Iran. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was
“preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making
use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to
diplomacy, the official said. The US official said the current weakness of the
regime encouraged Trump to apply pressure and seek a deal on denuclearization.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based
on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if
pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His
administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from
independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic
missiles and on Tehran’s already-weakened network of armed proxies in the Middle
East.
Limits of air power
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and
the United States said Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the
Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal. “If you’re going to topple the
regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he told Reuters, noting that even
if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new
leader that will replace him.” Only a combination of external pressure and an
organized domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the
official said. The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by
the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic
crisis that sparked the protests. Multiple US intelligence reports reached a
similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in
place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people
familiar with the matter said. A Western source said they believed Trump’s goal
appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the
regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where US intervention
replaced the president without a wholesale change of government. During a US
Senate hearing about Venezuela on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
said “the hope” was for a similar transition if Khamenei were to fall, although
he recognized that the situation in Iran was far more complex. The US official
said it was unclear who would take over if Khamenei were out of power. Khamenei
has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed
the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”US-based
rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214
security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117.
Khamenei retains control but less visible
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances
and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last
year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior advisor Ali Larijani, they
said. The IRGC dominates Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
US sends additional warship to Middle East amid Iran tensions
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear
strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene,
they said. In the US and Israel, some officials have argued that a transition in
Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more
cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said. But, they
cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, regional
officials said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hardline rule,
deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions. Any successor seen as
emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not
weaken the IRGC, the official said. Across the Middle East, officials say they
favor containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of
fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic
fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders. A fractured
Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq,
two Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling
militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy
chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage
Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the US deployments
suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained,
driven by a belief in the US and Israel that Iran could rebuild its missile
capabilities and eventually weaponize its enriched uranium.The most likely
outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested
succession - that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.With
Reuters
US sends additional warship to Middle East amid Iran tensions
Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
The US Navy has sent an additional warship to the Middle East, a US official
told Reuters on Thursday, amid a large military buildup in the region and
soaring tensions with Iran.
The official, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the USS
Delbert D. Black had entered the region in the past 48 hours. This brings the
number of destroyers in the Middle East to six, along with an aircraft carrier
and three other littoral combat ships.
The additional warship in the region was first reported by CBS News. Tensions
between Iran and the United States have risen sharply following Tehran’s violent
crackdown on anti-government protests earlier this month, which rights groups
say left thousands dead.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene to support protesters and
has warned that time is running out for a nuclear deal with Iran, saying a
failure to reach an agreement would trigger a major US attack. Iran on Thursday
vowed a “crushing response” to any strike.With Reuters
Iran says it did not request negotiations with US
Reuters/January 28, 2026
DUBAI, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he had not
been in contact with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in recent days or
requesting negotiations, state media reported on Wednesday. U.S. President
Donald Trump said on Tuesday another "armada" is floating toward Iran and that
he hopes Tehran would make a deal with Washington. The Reuters Gulf Currents
newsletter brings you the latest on geopolitics, energy and finance in the
region. Sign up here. The U.S. deployed additional military assets in the Gulf
following nationwide protests in Iran which led to the country's bloodiest
crackdown since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. "There was no contact between me
and Witkoff in recent days and no request for negotiations was made from us,"
Araqchi told state media, adding that various intermediaries were "holding
consultations" and were in contact with Tehran.
"Our stance is clear, negotiations don't go along with threats and talks can
only take place when there are no longer menaces and excessive demands." Iran's
President Masoud Pezeshkian told Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
on Tuesday that Tehran welcomes any process, within the framework of
international law, that prevents war.
Trump Says
‘Time Running Out’ as Iran Threatens Tough Response
Asharq Al Awsat/January 28/2026
President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned time is running out for Iran to come
to the table and avoid US military action, provoking Tehran to retort that it
would respond to any attack "like never before". Trump has not ruled out an
attack after this month's deadly crackdown on protests. Last June, the US
carried out a night of strikes on Iranian nuclear sites during Israel's 12-day
war against the country. A US naval strike group that Trump described as an
"armada" led by aircraft carrier the USS Abraham Lincoln is now lurking in
Middle East waters. A rights group said that it has verified over 6,200 deaths,
mostly of protesters killed by security forces, in the wave of demonstrations
that rocked the clerical leadership since late December but peaked on January 8
and 9. Activists say that the actual toll could be many times higher, with an
internet shutdown still complicating efforts to confirm information about the
scale of the killings. In his latest post on Truth Social, Trump did not mention
the protests but said Iran needed to negotiate a deal over its nuclear program,
which the West believes is aimed at making an atomic bomb.
"Hopefully Iran will quickly 'Come to the Table' and negotiate a fair and
equitable deal -- NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS -- one that is good for all parties. Time
is running out, it is truly of the essence!" said Trump. Referring to American
strikes against Iranian nuclear targets during the June war which he said
resulted in "major destruction of Iran", he added: "The next attack will be far
worse! Don't make that happen again". In response Iran's mission to the United
Nations posted a screenshot of Trump's threat on X and wrote: "Iran stands ready
for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests -- BUT IF PUSHED, IT WILL
DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE!" Analysts say US options include
strikes on military facilities or targeted hits against the leadership under Ali
Khamenei, in a full-scale bid to bring down the system that has ruled Iran since
the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah.
'Severe damage' -
But Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said before Trump's comments were published
that "conducting diplomacy through military threat cannot be effective or
useful". "If they want negotiations to take shape, they must certainly set aside
threats, excessive demands and raising illogical issues," he said in televised
comments. Araghchi said he had "no contact" with US Middle East envoy Steve
Witkoff in recent days and that "Iran has not sought negotiations". Iranian
armed forces chief of staff Habibollah Sayyari warned the US against any
"miscalculation", saying that "they too would suffer damage".
'New dimensions of crackdown' -
In an updated toll, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said
it had confirmed that 6,221 people had been killed, including 5,856 protesters,
100 minors, 214 members of the security forces and 49 bystanders. But the group
added it was still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities. At least
42,324 people have been arrested, it said. HRANA warned that security forces
were searching hospitals for wounded protesters, saying this highlighted "new
dimensions of the continued security crackdown". HRANA said a trial in Malard
outside Tehran on Tuesday of a man accused over the death of a police officer
was the first such hearing linked to the protests. Images of the hearing were
broadcast on state television in Iran. It was a "starting point for a broad
series of trials" that would be "aimed at imposing severe penalties on
protesters", HRANA said. Meanwhile, Iran on Wednesday executed a man arrested
last year on charges of spying for Israel's Mossad spy agency, the judiciary
said. Rights groups fear some protesters could also face the death penalty.
Mohammed bin Salman Receives Hillary Clinton in Riyadh
Asharq Al Awsat/January 28/2026
Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime
Minister, received former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at Al-Yamamah
Palace in Riyadh on Wednesday. They exchanged cordial talks during their
meeting. Clinton was a keynote speaker at the fifth edition of the Real Estate
Future Forum that was held in Riyadh from January 26 to 28.
EU designates Iran’s IRGC a terrorist organization in
policy shift
Reuters/29 January/,2026
European Union foreign ministers on Thursday agreed to include Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps on the bloc’s list of terrorist organizations, putting
the IRGC in a category similar to that of ISIS and al Qaeda and marking a
symbolic shift in Europe’s approach to Iran’s leadership.“Repression cannot go
unanswered,” European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote on social
media platform X. “Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working
toward its own demise,” she added. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a
post on X, described the move as a “major strategic mistake.”Set up after Iran’s
1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Shia clerical ruling system, the IRGC has
great sway in the country, controlling swathes of the economy and armed forces.
The IRGC was also put in charge of Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear
programs. While some EU member states have previously pushed for the IRGC to be
added to the EU’s terrorist list, others have been more cautious, fearing that
it could hinder communication with Iran’s government and endanger European
citizens inside the country. But a brutal crackdown on a nationwide protest
movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people, increased momentum for
the move.
Iranian ‘regime’s days are numbered,’ German chancellor says
“It’s important that we send this signal that the bloodshed that we’ve seen, the
bestiality of the violence that’s been used against protesters, cannot be
tolerated,” Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel said on Thursday morning.
France and Italy, which were previously reluctant to list the IRGC, lent their
backing this week. Despite concerns from some capitals that a decision to label
the IRGC a terrorist organization could lead to a complete breakdown in ties
with Iran, Kallas told reporters on Thursday morning that “the estimate is that
still the diplomatic channels will remain open, even after the listing” of the
IRGC. The EU also adopted sanctions on Thursday targeting 15 individuals and six
entities “responsible for serious human rights violations in Iran,” the Council
of the European Union said in a statement. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar
Momeni, Prosecutor General Mohammad Movahedi Azad, a number of IRGC commanders
and some senior law enforcement officials were among those sanctioned, the
statement said. Entities sanctioned on Thursday include the Iranian Audio-Visual
Media Regulatory Authority and several software companies which the EU said were
“involved in censoring activities, trolling campaigns on social media, spreading
disinformation and misinformation online, or contributed to the widespread
disruption of access to the internet by developing surveillance and repression
tools.”The EU also sanctioned four individuals and six entities connected to
Iran’s drone and missile program and “decided to extend the prohibition on the
export, sale, transfer or supply from the EU to Iran to include further
components and technologies used in the development and production of UAVs and
missiles,” the Council said.
Iran’s IRGC to carry out live-fire exercises in Strait of
Hormuz amid US tensions
Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
The naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will carry
out live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1 and February 2,
Iran’s state-run Press TV reported on Thursday. This comes amid heightened
tensions between the United States and Iran. Iran on Thursday vowed a “crushing
response” to any attack after US President Donald Trump warned time was running
out for a nuclear deal. Earlier this week, Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy
of the IRGC’s naval forces, appeared to threaten the closure of the Strait of
Hormuz, the vital waterway through which around 20 percent of global oil
supplies pass – a threat Iran has repeatedly made in the past but never carried
out. “Iran has real-time intelligence over the Strait of Hormuz, above and below
the surface, and the security of this strategic passage depends on Tehran’s
decisions,” Akbarzadeh said. “We do not want the world economy to suffer, but
the Americans and their supporters will not benefit from a war they start.
Washington and Tehran have exchanged sharp warnings since a protest wave in Iran
led Trump to threaten military action over a violent crackdown, while the
Islamic Republic blamed the United States for fueling what it deemed “riots.”Iran’s
First Vice President Mohammed Reza Aref said Thursday Tehran must be ready for
war. “Today we must be prepared for a state of war. Our strategy is that we will
never start a war, but if it is imposed, we will defend ourselves," state news
agency IRNA quoted Aref as saying.
He added that Iran was “ready” for negotiations with the United States but said
“this time we want guarantees,” without giving further details.
Russia says is ready to evacuate its staff from Iran’s
Bushehr nuclear plant if necessary
Reuters/29 January/2026
Russia is ready to evacuate its staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant if
necessary, Alexei Likhachev, the head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation, was
cited as saying on Thursday by the state news agency TASS. President Vladimir
Putin said last year that hundreds of Russians were working at the facility,
Iran’s only operating nuclear power plant, which Moscow built for Iran. More
nuclear facilities are currently being built at the Bushehr site by Russia. A US
strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June last year did not target Bushehr.
Likhachev warned at the time that an attack on the site could trigger a
catastrophe comparable to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster. On Wednesday US
President Donald Trump urged Iran to come to the table and make a deal
renouncing nuclear weapons, or the next US attack would be far worse. Likhachev
was quoted as saying: “We sincerely hope that the parties to the conflict will
uphold their commitments regarding the inviolability of this territory (Bushehr).”“But,
as they say, we are keeping our finger on the pulse and, in cooperation with the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense, we will be ready to
carry out evacuation measures if necessary.” Iran denies seeking nuclear
weapons, and Russia says it supports Tehran’s right to use nuclear energy for
peaceful purposes.
Iran rounds up thousands in mass arrest campaign after crushing unrest, sources
say
Reuters/29 January/2026
Plainclothes Iranian security forces have rounded up thousands of people in a
campaign of mass arrests and intimidation to deter further protests after
crushing the bloodiest unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, sources told
Reuters. Modest protests that began last month in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over
economic hardship unleashed long-suppressed wider grievances and swiftly
escalated into the gravest existential threat to Iran’s Shia theocracy in nearly
five decades, with protesters commonly calling for ruling clerics to step
down.Authorities cut internet access and stifled the unrest with overwhelming
force that killed thousands, according to rights groups. Tehran blames “armed
terrorists” linked to Israel and the United States for the violence. Within
days, plainclothes security forces launched a campaign of widespread arrests
accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints,
according to five activists who spoke on condition of anonymity from inside
Iran.
They said detainees had been placed in secret lockups.
“They are arresting everyone,” one of the activists said. “No one knows where
they are being taken or where they are being held. With these arrests and
threats, they are trying to inject fear into society.” Similar accounts were
given to Reuters by lawyers, medics, witnesses and two Iranian officials
speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid retribution by security services.
They said the roundups appeared aimed at preventing any serious revival of
protests by spreading fear just as the clerical establishment faces rising
external pressure. Uncertainty over the possibility of military action against
the Islamic Republic has lingered since US President Donald Trump said last week
that an “armada” was heading toward the country but that he hoped he would not
have to use it. On Wednesday, however, he doubled down on his threats by
demanding Iran negotiate curbs on its nuclear program, warning that any future
US attack would be “far worse” than one day of airstrikes last June on three
nuclear sites. Multiple Western and Middle Eastern sources told Reuters this
week that Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes
on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, although regional
officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers.
Rounded up for protests in previous years
One of the activists said security forces were detaining not only people accused
of involvement in the latest unrest but also those arrested during protests in
previous years, “even if they had not participated this time, plus members of
their families.”The latest death toll compiled by the US-based HRANA rights
group stands at 6,373 – 5,993 protesters, 214 security personnel, 113 under-18s
and 53 bystanders. Arrests stand at 42,486, according to HRANA. Judiciary
officials have warned that “those committing sabotage, burning public property
and involved in armed clashes with security forces” could face death sentences.
Unofficial detention centers, thousands of arrests
Two Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed to Reuters
that thousands of arrests had been carried out in the past few days. They said
many detainees were being held in unofficial detention sites, “including
warehouses and other improvised locations,” and the judiciary was acting quickly
to process cases. Iranian authorities declined to comment publicly on the number
of arrests, or say where the unrest-related detainees were held. Authorities
said on January 21 that 3,117 were killed in the unrest, including 2,427
civilians and security personnel. Amnesty International reported on January 23
that “sweeping arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, bans on gatherings
and attacks to silence families of victims mark the suffocating militarization
imposed in Iran by the Islamic Republic’s authorities in the aftermath of
protest massacres.” Arrests are continuing across the sprawling country, from
small towns to the capital, witnesses and activists said. “They arrested my
brother and my cousin a few days ago,” said a resident of northwestern Iran who
asked not to be named. “They stormed our home in plainclothes, searched the
entire house, and took all the laptops and mobile phones. They warned us that if
we make this public, they will arrest all of us.”
Families frantic over missing young people
More than 60 percent of Iran’s 92 million people are under the age of 30.
Although the latest protests were snuffed out by the security forces, clerical
rulers will eventually risk more demonstrations if the heavy repression
persists, according to rights activists.
Three Iranian lawyers told Reuters that dozens of families had approached them
in recent days seeking help for relatives who had been detained. “Many families
are coming to us asking for legal assistance for their detained children,” one
lawyer said. “Some of those arrested are under 18 – boys and girls.”Human rights
groups have long said Iranian security organs use informal detention sites
during periods of serious unrest, holding detainees without access to lawyers or
family members for extended periods.
Five doctors told Reuters that protesters wounded during protests had been
removed from hospitals by security forces and dozens of doctors had been
summoned by authorities or warned against helping injured demonstrators. Prison
authorities denied holding wounded protesters. “They have arrested many doctors
and nurses who helped wounded protesters... They are arresting everyone,” said
one of the doctors. Families of five detainees told Reuters the lack of
information about their whereabouts itself had become a form of punishment. “We
don’t know where they are, whether they are still alive, or when we’ll see
them,” said an Iranian man whose daughter was arrested. “They took my child as
if they were arresting a terrorist. My child protested because all young people
(just) want to have a better life. My child is a young person who only took part
in protests.”
Turkey to offer mediation on US–Iran tensions as
Araghchi visits
Agence France Presse/29 January/2026
Turkey will offer to help resolve tensions between Washington and Tehran when
Iran's top diplomat visits, a foreign ministry source said Thursday a day ahead
of the visit. "Turkey is ready to contribute to
resolving the current tensions through dialogue," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan
Fidan was to tell his counterpart Abbas Araghchi when the pair meet on Friday,
the source said. Meanwhile, a senior official said that Turkey is weighing
contingency plans along its border if the United States attacks neighboring
Iran. "If the United States attacks Iran and the regime falls, Turkey is
planning additional measures to reinforce border security," said the official,
who requested anonymity.
Trump says Hamas set to disarm in Gaza deal progress
AFP/January 29, 2026
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said Thursday that Hamas would give up
weapons, a step the militants have not confirmed, in what would be a major step
forward in a fragile ceasefire with Israel. “A lot of people said they’ll never
disarm. It looks like they’re going to disarm,” Trump told a cabinet meeting.
Trump hailed cooperation with Hamas, considered a terrorist group by the United
States, after Israeli forces brought back the remains from the last hostage held
in Gaza, Ran Gvili. “They did help us with those bodies, getting them back, and
that family is so grateful,” Trump said. Trump had asked for an update on the
Middle East from his roving special envoy Steve Witkoff, sitting in the side of
the room as cabinet members and media listened. An upbeat Witkoff voiced high
confidence at Hamas following through. “We’ve got the terrorists out of there
and they’re going to demilitarize. They will because they have no choice,”
Witkoff said. “They’re going to give it up. They’re going to give up the
AK-47s,” he told Trump. Hamas has said that the return of Gvili’s body showed
its commitment to the ceasefire but it has so far not surrendered its weapons.
The group has repeatedly said disarmament is a red line, but it has also
suggested it would be open to handing over its weapons to a Palestinian
governing authority. Disarmament is a key part in the second phrase of the
ceasefire plan sealed in October.A Palestinian technocratic committee has also
been set up with a goal of taking over governance in the battered Gaza Strip.
Red Cross transfers 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza
AFP/January 29, 2026
JERUSALEM: The Red Cross said it facilitated the transfer of 15 Palestinian
bodies to the Gaza Strip on Thursday after the last hostage held in the
territory was returned to Israel earlier this week. “The International Committee
of the Red Cross today facilitated the return of 15 deceased Palestinians to
Gaza ... This marks the completion of a months-long operation that reunited
families and supported the implementation of the ceasefire agreement,” the ICRC
said in a statement. Under the US-sponsored Gaza ceasefire deal, in effect since
October 10, Israel was to turn over the bodies of 15 Palestinians for every
deceased Israeli returned. Israeli forces on Monday brought home the remains of
Ran Gvili, the last hostage held in Gaza. “The operation began in October with
the release and transfer of 20 living hostages and 1,808 detainees,” the ICRC
statement said. “In subsequent phases, the ICRC facilitated the return of the
deceased, including 27 out of 28 hostages and 360 Palestinians.”The director of
Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital, Mohammed Abu Salmiya, confirmed that 15
Palestinian bodies had arrived at the medical facility on Thursday. Gaza’s
Health Ministry confirmed in a statement that the return of the latest bodies
brought the total number handed over by Israel to 360. The ICRC said that since
October 2023, when the war was triggered by the attack on Israel, the
humanitarian organization had “supported the return of 195 hostages — including
35 deceased — and 3,472 detainees.”Militants took 251 hostages to Gaza on Oct.
7, 2023, and the process of returning them has dragged over the course of the
ensuing war in a series of ceasefire and prisoner-swap deals as well as efforts
to rescue them militarily. The last hostage to be brought back, Ran Gvili, was
laid to rest in Israel on Wednesday, closing the chapter on a painful saga that
has haunted Israeli society for more than two years. The return of his remains
paves the way for a limited reopening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and
Egypt, a key entry point for aid into the Gaza Strip, which has been devastated
by the war.
Israel releases 15 Palestinian bodies as truce deal shifts
to next phase
Reuters/29 January/2026
Israel released 15 bodies of Palestinians killed during its war in Gaza, three
days after recovering the remains of the last hostage, in moves mediators hope
will pave the way to carrying out the next stage of US President Donald Trump’s
peace plan. Police officer Ron Gvili was one of 251 hostages seized and taken to
Gaza by Palestinian Hamas militants during their October 7, 2023 cross-border
attack that triggered the war. At the time of a ceasefire deal that Israel and
Hamas agreed in October, 48 hostages remained in Gaza, 28 of whom were believed
to be dead, including Gvili.
Handing over all remaining living and dead hostages was a core commitment
written into the first phase of the ceasefire deal. Subsequent stages remain to
be fulfilled, with deep splits over what comes next, including Hamas
disarmament. In a statement, the International Committee of the Red Cross said
it had facilitated the return of 15 deceased Palestinians to Gaza, after Israel
recovered Gvili’s remains.
Months-long operation to recover bodies
"This marks the completion of a months-long operation that reunited families and
supported the implementation of the ceasefire agreement," the ICRC statement
added. The operation began in October with the release of 20 living hostages by
Hamas and 1,808 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, the ICRC said. In subsequent
phases, the ICRC smoothed returns of the deceased, including 27 of 28 hostages
and 360 Palestinians. “We are relieved to have helped reunite families with
their loved ones. For families whose deceased relatives were returned, we hope
this brought the possibility to fully mourn,” said Julien Lerisson, the ICRC’s
regional head. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry confirmed it had received the 15
bodies, saying it would now try to identify them. Only 99 of the Palestinian
bodies handed over since October have been identified, it added, with health
officials forced to bury unidentified bodies in mass graves.
Brittle ceasefire
In the latest violence rattling the fragile ceasefire, medics said two men were
killed by Israeli forces in eastern Khan Younis, in an area adjacent to where
the army operates. The Israeli military told Reuters it was unaware of any
casualties as a result of Israeli fire on Thursday. The Gaza health ministry
said Israeli airstrikes, tank shelling and gunfire have killed at least 490
people since the truce took effect in October after two years of war that widely
demolished the Palestinian enclave. Later in the day, an Israeli airstrike
killed at least one Palestinian and wounded others in the Maghazi camp of
central Gaza. It was unclear what prompted the attack, and the Israeli military
did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Israel said four soldiers
have been killed by Palestinian militants in the small coastal territory during
the ceasefire. The two sides have traded blame over the truce violations.
Israeli army acknowledges around 70,000 Palestinians killed
during Gaza war
Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
The Israeli military said on Wednesday that around 70,000 Palestinians were
killed during the war in the Gaza Strip, a figure broadly in line with estimates
from Gaza’s health ministry, which Israel has previously questioned. For the
latest updates on the Israel-Palestine conflict, visit our dedicated page.
Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7, 2023
attack. According to Gaza health authorities, at least 71,662 Palestinians were
killed during the war. While acknowledging a death toll of roughly 70,000, the
Israeli military disputed UN estimates on the proportion of civilian casualties
and said no healthy individuals died from starvation during the war. The Gaza
health ministry and multiple international organizations say the vast majority
of those killed were civilians. Israel, however, maintains that around 25,000 of
the dead were Hamas fighters. A US-brokered ceasefire has been in place in Gaza
since October 10.
Trump orders re-opening of Venezuela airspace
AFP/29 January /2026
President Donald Trump said he had ordered commercial airspace over Venezuela to
be reopened on Thursday, nearly four weeks after the US military operation to
topple Nicolas Maduro. Trump told a cabinet meeting he had just spoken to
Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez “and informed her that we’re going
to be opening up all commercial airspace over Venezuela.”“American citizens will
very shortly be able to go to Venezuela and they will be safe there. It’s under
very strong control,” Trump said at the White House. Trump added that he had
instructed US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy “and everybody else concerned,
including the military, that if you would, by the end of today, I’d like you to
have the airspace over Venezuela” opened. The United States has kept Venezuelan
airspace closed to commercial flights since the January 3 military operation
that captured leftist leader Maduro, who now faces trial on drug and terrorism
charges in New York. Trump also said that major oil companies were “going to
Venezuela now, scouting it out and picking their locations.”Following the fall
of Maduro, Venezuela’s Rodriguez quickly signed oil agreements with Trump, who
has declared that his administration now controls the sector -- the main engine
of the Venezuelan economy.
US threatens late-night, daytime talk shows over politician
interviews, commissioner says
Reuters/29 January/2026
A Democratic member of the Federal Communications Commission said Thursday the
Trump administration is threatening major broadcast networks by issuing new
guidance on equal time rules for late-night and daytime talk shows interviews
with political candidates.
The Republican-led FCC said last week that daytime and late-night TV talk shows
are not considered “bona fide” news programs that are exempt from “equal time”
rules that require them to give airtime to views of opposing candidates. FCC
Commissioner Anna Gomez, a Democrat, said the announcement last week was an
improper threat aimed at news reporting and urged networks not to “be cowed into
stopping your independent reporting of what is happening to this country.”
Hegseth expected to skip NATO ministers’ meeting next
month, sources say
Reuters/29 January/2026
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not expected to attend a NATO defense
ministers’ meeting in Brussels next month, two sources said, the second time in
a row a Trump administration official has skipped a gathering of the military
alliance.
The sources, a US official and a NATO diplomat, both said Hegseth would miss the
Feb 12 gathering at NATO headquarters. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not
attend the last NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in December. The two sources did
not cite any reason for Hegseth’s decision. The Pentagon and NATO had no
immediate comment. Until US President Donald Trump’s second term in office, it
was highly unusual for a US Cabinet official to skip a meeting of NATO
ministers. The United States is the alliance’s military superpower and political
lynchpin. But the Trump administration has made clear that the United States has
new military priorities, which means Europe will have to take more
responsibility for its own defense. Washington has said the US remains committed
to NATO. But the alliance has been strained by tensions between Trump and
European allies, most recently over his desire to acquire Greenland, a
semi-autonomous territory of fellow NATO member Denmark. That crisis was
defused, at least for the moment, after Trump held talks last week in Davos with
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Rutte said the leaders had agreed that
officials from the United States, Denmark and Greenland would hold trilateral
talks and that NATO would play a greater role in Arctic security.
Ukraine working with SpaceX to stop Russian drones’ use of
Starlink, Kyiv says
Reuters/29 January/2026
Ukraine is working with US satellite firm SpaceX to resolve the issue of Russian
drones using the Starlink satellite internet system, the defense minister said
on Thursday, after recent reports of Starlinks being found on Russian long-range
UAVs in Ukraine.
The statement came after a defense ministry adviser raised concerns that Russia
was using Starlinks, which are almost impervious to traditional signal jamming,
to manually fly into Ukrainian targets. “We are grateful to SpaceX President
Gwynne Shotwell and personally to Elon Musk for the quick response and the start
of work on resolving the situation,” Ukraine’s defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov
wrote on the Telegram messaging app. Serhiy Beskrestnov, a newly appointed
adviser to Fedorov, had previously posted multiple pictures on social media over
the past several days of the wreckage of long-range Russian drones, including
Shaheds, with Starlink satellites attached. On Thursday, Beskrestnov said there
had been “hundreds” of cases where Starlink-enabled Russian drones had attacked
Ukrainian targets. Ukraine uses tens of thousands of Starlinks for battlefield
communication and for piloting drones. They are favored for their stable
connection on the battlefield and for their resistance to enemy signal jamming.
SpaceX turned on Starlink service over Ukraine in 2022 after Kyiv pleaded for
help in the first days following Russia’s full-scale invasion. It does not
provide Starlink service in Russia.
Afghanistan launches $100 million food security program as
crisis deepens
Reuters/29 January/2026
Afghanistan will roll out a $100 million food security project, the United
Nations said on Thursday, as it contends with a worsening hunger crisis driven
by mass deportations of Afghans from neighboring states, foreign aid cuts and
economic crisis. Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation is deteriorating sharply,
with millions pushed into hunger by the loss of remittances, limited job
opportunities and a sharp reduction in international assistance. The two-year
program, backed by the United Nations and Asian Development Bank, will support
more than 151,000 families, including Afghan returnees from Iran and Pakistan as
well as people affected by recent earthquakes and floods. The director of the
UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, Qu Dongyu, said the project would
address immediate food security needs but also aim to close Afghanistan’s food
production gap and create space for private sector recovery. The FAO warned in a
report that 17.4 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity in
2026, with 4.7 million affected by acute malnutrition. More than 2.5 million
Afghans have been expelled from Iran and Pakistan over the past year, according
to the World Food Program, swelling Afghanistan’s population by roughly a tenth
and cutting off remittance income for many families. Aid agencies say winter
conditions, scarce jobs and funding shortfalls have further strained households,
with the WFP warning that last year marked the biggest surge in malnutrition
ever recorded in Afghanistan and that conditions are likely to worsen in 2026.
The Latest English LCCC
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January
29-30/2026
In the Saudi Arabia-UAE rivalry, the
Saudis are wrong
Michael Rubin/Washington
Examiner/January 29/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/151611/
On Dec. 30, 2025, Saudi Arabian jets bombed southern Yemeni forces at the port
city of Mukalla. Saudi officials said they sought to destroy arms that the
United Arab Emirates sent to its allies in southern Yemen. Saudi authorities
were upset that the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council recently
consolidated its control over the Hadramawt, never mind that it did so to close
off a smuggling route benefiting the Houthis.
The Emiratis had had enough. They entered Yemen alongside Saudi Arabia as the
Houthis and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had overrun the country. The
Emiratis and their Yemeni partners defeated al Qaeda and began building a
functional state.
What the Saudis lacked in success, they made up for in jealousy. The Emiratis
pulled out, allowing the Saudis to take responsibility for everything. Within
days, al Qaeda returned to areas the Emiratis evacuated, the power went out, and
the most secure regions of Yemen teetered on a return to chaos they had not seen
in a decade.
In Washington, diplomats, analysts, and journalists framed the Yemen fiasco as
the latest manifestation of the Saudi-Emirati rivalry. While true, stating the
obvious misses the point. Lots of countries have rivalries: Australia and New
Zealand, France and the United Kingdom, Brazil and Argentina, Japan and Taiwan.
None of these rivalries endangers regional security or U.S. national interests.
The Saudi-Emirati rivalry does for one reason. As Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad
bin Salman competes with Emirati leader Muhammad bin Zayed, bin Salman remains
unconstrained by any principle.
Take Yemen. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood
domestically, for the same reason President Donald Trump and Secretary of State
Marco Rubio designated many Muslim Brotherhood affiliates as a terrorist entity:
The group is intolerant toward competitors and sanctions terrorist violence
against both non-Muslims and Muslims who do not subscribe to its narrow,
extremist, and cultish views. Yet, to undermine the Emiratis in Yemen, bin
Salman partnered with Islah, the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate in Yemen, despite
that group’s links to both al Qaeda and the Houthis.
The same holds true in Sudan. There are no angels in that country’s civil war, a
conflict far bloodier than the wars in Gaza or Ukraine. Both Gen. Abdel Fattah
al Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces and Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as
Hemedti)’s Rapid Support Forces care little about collateral civilian
casualties. The Emiratis support Hemedti, reportedly because he can better
guarantee their commercial interests in Sudan and the routes the country opens
into the interior of Africa. The Saudis join with Iran, Russia, Qatar, and
Turkey to support al Burhan. Allying with the Islamic Republic of Iran should be
a red line for any U.S. ally, but bin Salman does not care so long as he can
play spoiler to the Emirates.
The same Saudi-Emirati rivalry plays out in Somalia, Libya, and Syria. In each
case, Riyadh backs Islamist extremists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and al Qaeda
affiliates, while Abu Dhabi supports more moderate, pro-Western leaders.
In Somalia, Saudi Arabia sides with Qatar and Turkey to prop up a corrupt,
terrorist-riddled regime in Somalia instead of democratic Somaliland. In Libya,
Saudi Arabia undermines Emirati support for secularists and instead empowers
Islamist groups that cheered the murder of the U.S. ambassador in 2012. In
Syria, the Saudi crown prince supports the thinly veiled al Qaeda groups at the
heart of President Ahmed al Sharaa’s regime, while the Emiratis seek to limit
the influence of these extremists.
Middle East analysts may pour forth rivalries to explain Saudi actions. They may
also spread calumnies about the UAE supporting an “Axis of Secession” because of
its support for Somaliland and southern Yemen. This misses the point.
The problem is not that the rivalry exists, but that Saudi Arabia supports the
wrong side. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had a
rivalry, but Washington was right, and Moscow was wrong. There is no moral
equivalence today between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. If Muhammad bin Salman does not
grow up, Rubio and Congress should consider sanctions or even a terrorist
designation.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/4433924/saudi-
**Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner‘s Beltway
Confidential. He is the director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a
senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Why Is Saudi Arabia Abandoning Peace?
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/The National Interest/January 29/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/151611/
In the last few months, Riyadh has turned away from US-aligned partners in the
Middle East. Saudi Arabia is undergoing a major regional realignment, abandoning
the pursuit of an integrated Middle East with a thriving knowledge economy and
dusting off the kingdom’s old rhetoric against Zionism and in favor of the
Muslim Brotherhood. Last week, Saudi Arabia went as far as lobbying President
Donald Trump to spare the Iranian regime, Riyadh’s archrival since 1979.
This followed Saudi Arabia’s parting ways with the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
over Yemen. The Saudi air force struck Emirati assets and paved the way for its
Yemeni allies—mainly the Muslim Brotherhood’s Al-Islah—to expand southward
toward Aden. But that was only one piece of the Saudi realignment puzzle. In
Sudan, Riyadh abandoned the Quad Plan it had signed on, which stipulated that
the two warring generals—Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan, the chief of the Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF), and Muhammad Daglo “Hemedti”, the leader of the Rapid Support
Forces (RSF)—cease fire and hand over the country to civilian leaders.Saudi
Arabia said it would be funding Burhan’s purchase of $1.5 billion worth of
Pakistani weapons, in violation of a global embargo on exporting arms to Sudan.
Burhan is a holdover from Omar al-Bashir’s Muslim Brotherhood regime. Bashir
hosted late Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden when the former planned his attacks
on US embassies in Kenya and Nairobi and on the USS Cole in the Gulf of Aden.
Like Hemedti, Burhan is under US sanctions and is allied with the Sudanese
Islamic Movement and its militias. Riyadh’s anger flashed over Israel’s
recognition of Somaliland and took out its venom on the UAE, accusing the two
countries of implementing a “Zionist project” that aims at partitioning Arab and
Muslim countries to weaken them and dominate them.
Since the accession of King Salman Abdul-Aziz and his son Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman (MBS) to power in 2015, Riyadh has presented itself as a reformer.
Islam was reinterpreted away from the fundamentalism that had dominated Saudi
Arabia for decades. Normalization with Israel seemed inevitable, with a small
caveat that Israel should guarantee only “a pathway” to a Palestinian state. In
other words, Saudi recognition of Israel did not even have to wait for the
establishment of a Palestinian state.
But suddenly, MBS reversed course. Saudi columnists, all of whom print the
government’s views, started arguing that normalization between Muslims and Jews
is impossible unless one side changes its views and converts to the religion of
the other. An editorial in the daily Al-Riyadh stated: “Wherever Israel is
present, there is ruin and destruction. [Israel] pursues policies that disregard
international law, do not recognize human rights, and do not respect the
sovereignty of states or the integrity of their territories, while working to
exploit crises and conflicts to deepen divisions.”
Saudi media not only badmouthed Israel, but also America, a move
uncharacteristic of Islamist governments, such as Qatar and Turkey, which try to
praise their ties with America while bashing the Jewish state, hoping to split
the two allies.
Thus, Saudi pundits went after the United States itself. “Trump’s doctrine
represents an era characterized by violent and direct intervention based on
exploiting technological and informational superiority to impose a new political
reality that aligns with [his] right-wing populist ideology,” wrote Rami Al-Ali
in Okaz.
Saudi realignment in policy—distancing itself from the UAE, normalizing
relations with Israel, and cozying up to Qatar and Turkey—and in media, as seen
in Saudi talk shows and editorials, is unmistakable. The question is why.
The most probable answer would be domestic failure. With four years until the
deadline for MBS’s Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is still far from transforming its
economy from oil rents to knowledge. In 2025, oil activities contributed around
40–45 percent of Saudi GDP, compared to about 22 percent in the UAE.
Reliance on oil foreshadows trouble in a country with a fast-growing population
and a world where energy prices are declining. Riyadh needs to sell oil at
around $96 per barrel to balance its budget, but the price averaged $65 in 2025,
forcing the Saudi deficit to balloon to around $65 billion. Economic prosperity
has been the foundation of the Saudi social contract. When shaken, the Saudi
government itself will start facing sociopolitical headwinds, and the only way
Arab and Muslim governments know how to deflect popular anger over domestic
issues is to brandish their Islamist and anti-Zionist credentials, and this is
exactly what Saudi Arabia started doing in the past few weeks.
If Saudi Arabia continues on this pathway, it will progressively start sounding
like Qatar and Turkey, and a few years down the road, like Islamist Iran. Turkey
and Qatar have perfected talking from both sides of their mouth, on one hand
praising their strategic alliance with America, and on the other hand bashing
the West and its system of liberal democracy. In doing so, they often find
themselves in the same ditch with anti-American powers such as Russia, China,
and the BRICS bloc.
It has not helped that Washington has maintained strong ties with Ankara and
Doha, despite their firebrand anti-Western rhetoric and their support of the
Muslim Brotherhood. This may have convinced the Saudis, who started eradicating
jihadi Islam from their ranks after 9/11, that they can get away with using
Islamism as a tool to project influence outside their borders, as long as
violent Islamism stays away from America and Americans.
Saudi Arabia is going down a road that will be trouble for America. Washington
needs to be aware of the ongoing change, lest one day America wakes up and
starts asking again: Why do they hate us?
About the Author: Hussain Abdul-Hussain
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/why-is-saudi-arabia-abandoning-peace
**Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at The Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies (FDD). He focuses on the Gulf region and Yemen. Hussain earned a
degree in History and Archeology from the American University of Beirut, after
which he worked as a reporter and later managing editor at Beirut’s The Daily
Star. In Washington, Hussain helped set up and manage the Arabic satellite
network Alhurra Iraq, after which he headed the Washington Bureau of Kuwaiti
daily Alrai. Hussain has worked as a visiting fellow with Chatham House and has
written for The New York Times and The Washington Post. Follow him on X:
@hahussain.
Former NSC senior director: Trump ‘will have to do
something militarily’ in Iran
Sophie Brams/The Hill/January 29/2026
Former senior director of the National Security Council Michael Allen said
Monday that President Trump will “have to do something militarily” in Iran as
the scope and scale of the regime’s bloody crackdown on protests has begun to
emerge.
More than 6,000 people, mostly protestors, have been killed since mass
demonstrations erupted across the country in late December, according to the
U.S-based Human Rights Activist News Agency. That includes 92 children, 214
people affiliated with government forces and 49 non-protesting civilians. The
overall figure is much smaller than what two senior officials in the country’s
Ministry of Health told Time magazine over the weekend, reporting that as many
as 30,000 people could have been killed on Jan. 8 and Jan. 9 alone.
Fox News’s John Roberts referenced that report in an interview with Allen on
Monday, suggesting the estimated death toll went “well beyond the red line” set
by President Trump, who previously warned of possible U.S. intervention if the
lethal suppression of activists continued.
“I think that President Trump still will have to do something militarily. He has
put American prestige on the line, and deservedly so,” Allen replied, calling
the 30,000 figure “unconscionable.” “We’re one of the greatest enemies of this
regime. They’ve been trying to kill us by way of terrorists, and they have
killed soldiers in Iraq through the years. So this is not a great group of
people here,” he added.
Allen also said that he believed Trump would “make good” on his commitment to
help the Iranian people. “It won’t necessarily lead to regime change, by the
way,” he said. “And some say, ‘well, why do it if it wont?’ But I think it’s a
shot in the arm to the protestors in a way to boost them psychologically so that
when this group does fall, and I think it will happen, they’ll know the United
States is there with them.” The Iranian government cut internet and phone lines
in the early weeks of the protests, which sparked initially over the country’s
ailing economy but quickly turned into anger toward the regime and its supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Tensions between the U.S. and Tehran have been escalating in recent days after
Trump said Thursday that an “armada” was headed toward Iran. On Monday, the
aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its three accompanying warships sailed
into the Middle East, boosting military firepower in the region.
In response to Trump’s threats, Gen. Mohammed Pakpour, the commander of Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the country has its “finger on the
trigger,” warning the U.S. and Israel to “avoid any miscalculation.”
Trump called Khamenei “a sick man” in an interview earlier this month after the
supreme leader blamed Trump for the casualties in a televised speech and
suggested in a series of posts on social platform X that protests were a
foreign-backed plot to “devour Iran.”
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5709036-allen-trump-iran-crackdown/
Iran and its proxies threaten retaliation against US and
Israel amid US military buildup
Janatan Sayeh and Bridget Toomey/FDD's Long War Journal/January 29/2026
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/01/iran-and-its-proxies-threaten-retaliation-against-us-and-israel-amid-us-military-buildup.php
Tehran and its regional proxies are escalating threats against the United States
and Israel as Washington moves additional naval forces into the Middle East. The
US military buildup follows US President Donald Trump’s warnings over the
Iranian regime’s lethal crackdown on protesters. Regime-affiliated outlets and
militia leaders have outlined retaliation scenarios ranging from missile and
drone strikes on US facilities and maritime disruptions in the Persian Gulf to
direct proxy-led ground attacks.
The Pentagon is moving the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the
South China Sea through the Indian Ocean toward the Middle East, adding a
carrier, three destroyers, and roughly 5,700 personnel to the theater. Once in
the region, the group will link up with three littoral combat ships based in
Bahrain and two US destroyers already operating in the Persian Gulf, reinforcing
existing US forces and command elements centered at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
The buildup follows a series of threats from Trump directed at the Islamic
Republic over its killing of unarmed protesters. Trump wrote on January 2 that
should the regime kill Iranian protestors, “the United States of America will
come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” He later
escalated his remarks on January 13, calling on protestors to take over regime
institutions and adding that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
Regime forces, supplemented by terrorists deployed from Tehran’s network of
regional militias, have killed over 36,000 unarmed protestors with heavy
military equipment. An Iraqi security source reported to CNN that nearly 5,000
Iraqi militia fighters from Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba,
Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, and the Badr Organization “entered Iran from two
border crossings in southern Iraq” to suppress protests. All of these groups,
except the Badr Organization, are US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations
that have killed American servicemembers.
Tehran is on high alert
On January 25, regime authorities unveiled a new mural in central Tehran warning
the United States. Displayed on a massive billboard, it depicts an aircraft
carrier from above with burning and wrecked fighter jets on the deck, bodies
scattered across the surface, and blood streaming into the sea in a pattern
resembling the stripes of the US flag. A caption reads, “If you sow the wind,
you will reap the whirlwind.”
Defa Press, an outlet controlled by the regime’s General Staff of the Armed
Forces, published an article on January 20 outlining Tehran’s “four options” for
retaliation against a potential US attack:
1. A missile and drone barrage against US facilities in the Middle East
The publication argued that “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Aerospace Force and the Islamic Republic of Iran Army’s (Artesh) drone units”
can strike US military installations in the region, including Al Udeid Air Base
in Qatar, Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, Sheikh Isa Air Base, and Al Dhafra Air
Base in the United Arab Emirates.Similarly, regime-affiliated social media
channels circulated a video on January 22 titled “U.S. bases that are within
Iran’s firing range.” The video shows pins being placed on American military
sites in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi
Arabia.
2. Attacking Israel with missiles and drones
The Defa Press article also pointed to the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel as
a model for how a response could unfold. It listed missile and drone strikes
against Israel as another potential retaliatory option, suggesting that the
regime either expects Israel to join US operations or intends to draw it into a
broader conflict.
3. Attacking US naval assets and ‘closing the Strait of Hormuz’
Another retaliatory option for Iran centers on “closing the Strait of Hormuz” in
the Persian Gulf, according to Defa Press. If Iran’s trade routes are
“disrupted,” the regime will retaliate by “impeding global trade” and warns that
it could target the US naval fleet using “thousands of coastal anti-ship
missiles” alongside a three-part approach involving “anti-ship missiles, naval
mines, and patrol craft.”
The regime-affiliated Javan Online wrote on January 26 that the IRGC is
concentrating on Iran’s Persian Gulf coastline and has deployed military
equipment and fortifications on Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa,
conducted mine-laying operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and installed the
Belarusian Vostok-1 radar to increase visibility of aerial threats.
An analysis posted on Fox News on January 25 said that Iran’s use of low-cost
drones poses a credible asymmetric threat to high-value US naval assets,
including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. The analysis noted that
mass drone launches could overwhelm ship defenses through saturation attacks and
make US surface vessels operating near Iran prime targets.
4. Escalation through regional proxies
A final retaliation scenario involves Tehran leveraging its terror proxies,
which it refers to as “resistance” forces, to strike US targets and form a
“coalition” against Israel that could include “ground combat.” Tehran’s militias
within the “Axis of Resistance” are already issuing threats across the region.
On January 16, Kataib Hezbollah threatened to strike US bases in the region if
the United States attacks the Islamic Republic. Kataib Hezbollah is also part of
the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an official Iraqi security institution
comprised largely of Iran-backed militias. On January 26, the Badr Organization,
another Iran-backed militia in the PMF, echoed Kataib Hezbollah’s support for
the regime in Tehran.
American forces are present in Syria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, but on
January 18, the Iraqi government announced that US personnel had withdrawn from
military facilities within the federal territory it controls in Iraq. US Central
Command (CENTCOM) described the Iraqi statement on the handover of bases as
“factual” but did not elaborate on current troop dispositions.
Hajj Abu Husayn al Hamidawi, the secretary-general of Kataib Hezbollah,
reiterated the group’s threat against the US on January 25. In his statement, he
urged fighters to “prepare for a comprehensive war in support and backing of the
Islamic Republic in Iran” and included the possibility of suicide operations. On
January 26, Sabereen News, a militia-aligned X account, shared photos of
Hamidawi filling out a form to volunteer for suicide attacks. The account has
also published photos and footage of crowds gathering to register in what they
describe as an “influx of volunteer martyrs.” Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba has
publicized recruitment efforts for suicide operations in defense of the Islamic
Republic.
Alwiya Waad al Haq, a front group for Kataib Hezbollah, also issued a threat to
American embassies and interests in the Arabian Peninsula and surrounding
waters.
The Islamic Republic reportedly transferred long-range ballistic missiles to its
proxies in Iraq in April 2025, according to The Times. Israeli media reported in
November 2025 that the regime in Tehran was increasing arms supplies to Iraqi
militias in anticipation of future conflict.
Trump may choose to strike Iran-backed militias in Iraq as part of any military
activity against the Islamic Republic and its adversaries. Both Trump in his
first term and former President Joe Biden in his term have struck Tehran’s
proxies in Iraq.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem delivered a speech on
January 26 in support of the Islamic Republic and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei. Qassem said that while Hezbollah will determine the manner of its
response to any conflict between the Islamic Republic and Israel/America, the
group is “not neutral.”
On January 26, Yemen’s Houthis shared new footage of their attack on the Marlin
Luada fuel tanker, which they struck in the Gulf of Aden at the end of January
2024. On January 25, the group shared a short excerpt from the video with the
caption “soon,” as a teaser for the full video. The Houthis and the United
States have had a ceasefire in place since May 6, which followed a roughly
seven-week air campaign conducted by American forces against the Iran-backed
terror group. However, the Houthis continued to attack commercial ships and
Israel until a ceasefire went into effect in Gaza in October 2025.
**Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s
regional malign influence. Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies focusing on Iranian proxies, specifically
Iraqi militias and the Houthis.
Iran’s Executions Have Not Stopped
Janatan Sayeh/FDD/January 29/2026
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/28/irans-executions-have-not-stopped/
Iranians are dying in their thousands, but the anti-regime movement endures
nonetheless.
The death toll from the latest protest wave is now estimated to have surpassed
36,000. Although the massacre has thinned out protests, the regime has entered a
new phase. Repression now extends beyond pressuring victims’ families and
healthcare workers to the confiscation of hundreds of Starlink devices as
internet outages persist. Security forces are murdering wounded protesters in
hospitals and executing political prisoners. In carrying out these bloody acts,
Tehran has crossed President Donald Trump’s stated red line. The message to
Washington is unambiguous: the regime does not intend to change its behavior
despite threats or human rights sanctions.
Regime Executes Protesters in Hospitals and Arrests Medical Workers
The killing of unarmed protesters did not stop in the streets. Health care staff
from multiple hospitals across several provinces reported that many protesters
were shot in the head while receiving medical treatment. Others recalled
security forces raiding intensive care units to kill or detain wounded patients.
Hospital workers also said that facilities and morgues became so overcrowded
with corpses that the authorities resorted to dumping the dead in mass graves.
Security forces have also arrested doctors and volunteer aid workers who treated
wounded protesters, raided their homes and clinics, and deliberately blocked
access to medical care to ensure injured protesters were left to die.
Execution of Political Prisoners Persists
The judiciary’s official outlet, Mizan News Agency, reported on January 24 that
authorities executed two men who were arrested in 2023 and convicted on security
charges. In a separate case, two cousins were executed at Shiraz’s Adelabad
Prison on January 1. They were arrested two years ago, accused of killing a law
enforcement officer. The Islamic Republic’s top prosecutor rejected President
Trump’s claim that U.S. threats had halted the execution of more than 800
protesters, saying the judiciary had made no such decision. This sent a
deliberate signal that repression is policy driven and will not be moderated by
the number of detainees facing death sentences. The regime’s judiciary chief
earlier vowed “no mercy” for protesters, branding them “terrorists,” an offense
punishable by death. Figures vary because of internet outages and the recency of
events, but estimates suggest roughly 27,000 people have been arrested in recent
weeks, facing the death penalty in a system that already carries out the world’s
highest number of executions per capita.
Authorities Seize Assets of All Protestors
Iran’s attorney general had instructed judicial officers and prosecutors
nationwide to identify the assets of strikers and report them to local
prosecutor’s offices, calling it a “lesson-teaching” measure. Parliamentarians
echoed the threat, saying the assets of prominent protest supporters would be
seized “so that no one dares to threaten” the regime. Tehran’s provincial
prosecutor said cases were opened against 15 athletes and actors and 10
signatories of a state by the House of Cinema, Iran’s main film industry guild.
State television reported that 60 coffee shops were flagged for alleged support
of what it called “terrorist acts.” The judiciary in the province of Qom also
announced the seizure of a prominent entrepreneur’s assets, including bank
accounts, after accusing him of backing strikes and protests.
Strikes Limited to Military Sites Risk Alienating Iranians
With the United States deploying military assets to the region, President Trump
declaring that an “armada” is heading toward the Middle East, and U.S. forces
conducting multi-day aerial exercises, the regime in Tehran is on high alert.
Limiting any campaign to military and ballistic missile sites risks alienating
the Middle East’s largest anti-Islamist movement within one of its most
pro-American societies. Targeting the apparatus of repression is the only way to
shift the balance of power away from the regime and its armed proxies and toward
Iranians. Such a campaign would require precise public messaging toward
Iranians, so that a kinetic operation does not deter the public but instead
encourages them to assume control on the ground.
**Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic
Republic’s regional malign influence. For more analysis from the author and FDD,
please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. Follow FDD on X @FDD
and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute
focusing on national security and foreign policy.
President Trump, Stop Saudi Arabia's Poisonous Campaign Against Jews and the
Abraham Accords
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/January 29/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/151624/
Both Israeli and Arab political analysts recently have pointed out that Saudi
Arabia's renewed anti-Israel and antisemitic rhetoric shows that the kingdom is
moving away from normalization with Israel in favor of an alliance with the
Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar and Turkey, especially now that the US has approved
Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's request for American tanks and
F-35 stealth fighter jets.
[B]ehind the scenes, "the Saudis and the Qataris led a campaign for Trump not to
strike Iran.... [The Saudi leadership] heard [exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza
Pahlavi] said the new Iran will normalize relations with Israel, and this drove
the [Saudi and Qatari] leadership crazy. Imagine Iran and Israel together... the
Shi'a and the Jews together; it's their biggest nightmare." — Edy Cohen,
research fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy, jewishinsider.com,
January 28, 2026.
"Now, with the Saudis no longer celebrating the Abraham Accords, they are trying
to undermine their foundations of support, from Morocco to the Emirates... 'If I
don't fly, nobody flies.'" — Amit Segal, Israeli journalist, January 22, 2026.
Saudi Arabia's latest anti-Israel campaign raises serious questions about the
kingdom's purported desire to join the Abraham Accords in the first place, as
well as the long-term reliability of other professed allies: in particular
Qatar, Turkey, Russia and Pakistan.
Over the past few years, Mohammed bin Salman found excuses to procrastinate,
often by conditioning normalization with Israel on the establishment of a
Palestinian terror state next to Israel. In the aftermath of the October 7
massacre, it is obvious that such a state would pose an existential threat to
Israel, as would the presence of Qatar, Turkey, Hamas, Russia and Pakistan
planted on the Gaza Strip when Trump will no longer be in office to guard it.
Perhaps this is the right time for Trump to reconsider his ties with bin Salman
-- and other putative "friends" -- and cancel the recent contract to sell the
Saudis that fleet of F-35 stealth fighter jets.
Both Israeli and Arab political analysts recently have pointed out that Saudi
Arabia's renewed anti-Israel and antisemitic rhetoric shows that the kingdom is
moving away from normalization with Israel in favor of an alliance with the
Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar and Turkey, especially now that the US has approved
Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's request for American tanks and
F-35 stealth fighter jets.
In December 2025, Sheikh Saleh bin Abdallah bin Humaid, a prominent imam of the
Grand Mosque in Mecca and a member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Senior Scholars,
delivered a Friday sermon in which he prayed for God to punish "the Jews" and
described Israel as a "cruel Zionist entity."
"Oh Allah, deal with the Jews who have seized and occupied, for they cannot
escape your power," bin Humaid said. "Oh Allah, send upon them your punishment
and misery, that can never be repelled by the wrongdoers. Oh Allah, we seek your
protection from their harms, and we seek refuge with you from their evils."
The imam praised Palestinian children as "among the most joyful examples and
noble images are the young children of Palestine."
"Heroic children whose fathers were killed while they watched and whose homes
were demolished while they witnessed," he said. "Jerusalem and Palestine will
remain high and lofty in the hearts of Arabs and Muslims."
On January 22, in an article published in the Saudi newspaper Al Jazirah,
prominent academic Ahmed bin Othman al-Tuwaijri accused the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) of throwing itself "into the arms of Zionism" and functioning as "Israel's
Trojan horse in the Arab world" in order to weaken Saudi Arabia and emerge as a
dominant regional power.
Tuwaijri, a former dean at King Saud University and a former Shura Council
member, accused UAE leaders of being "blinded" by "hatred and jealousy" and of
turning against Saudi Arabia despite decades of its support. He singled out the
emirate of Abu Dhabi for criticism, saying it was pursuing "hostile plots under
the guise of diplomacy" and was behind several attempts to destabilize the
region, adding:
"In my estimation, what Abu Dhabi is practicing the current state of chaos,
destruction, and collusion with the Zionist enemies of the nation against Arab
and Islamic countries is a natural consequence of the absence of a truly
serious, resolute, decisive, and just Arab system that stands at an equal
distance from all."
Tuwaijri claimed that the UAE, which is governed by Mohammed bin Zayed -- a
staunch opponent of political Islam -- had collaborated with Israel to the
detriment of Arab interests.
"They are trying to shift loyalty from Arab and Islamic solidarity toward
external influence," Tuwaijri wrote.
"What a betrayal of God, His Messenger, and the entire nation! What stupidity
and shortsightedness! Israel is on its way to rapid demise. And the nation will
remain, God willing. This is a betrayal of God, His Messenger, and the entire
nation, and it cannot be ignored."
Both Israeli and Arab political analysts recently have pointed out that Saudi
Arabia's renewed anti-Israel and antisemitic rhetoric shows that the kingdom is
moving away from normalization with Israel in favor of an alliance with the
Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar and Turkey, especially now that the US has approved
Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's request for American tanks and
F-35 stealth fighter jets.
Hussain Abdul Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies, commented:
"Saudi Arabia is undergoing a major regional realignment, abandoning the pursuit
of an integrated Middle East with a thriving knowledge economy and dusting off
the kingdom's old rhetoric against Zionism and in favor of the Muslim
Brotherhood. Last week, Saudi Arabia went as far as lobbying President Donald
Trump to spare the Iranian regime, Riyadh's archrival since 1979."
"This followed Saudi Arabia's parting ways with the United Arab Emirates over
Yemen. The Saudi air force struck Emirati assets and paved the way for its
Yemeni allies—mainly the Muslim Brotherhood's Al-Islah—to expand southward
toward Aden. But that was only one piece of the Saudi realignment puzzle."
Hussain noted that some Saudi social media accounts "have now emerged as fully
fledged antisemitic." He cited an account with considerable following belonging
to Fawaz al-Laboun as asking Arabs and Muslims to choose: "There are two camps.
One is Saudi, and the other is Jewish."
Hussain said earlier this month that the Trump administration needs "to have a
serious talk with" the Saudis. "I'm ringing the alarm; I'm breaking the glass.
I'm saying, listen, these guys are changing."
In the past, "you only got these crazy terrorist clerics, the al-Qaeda types...
would be inciting against the Jews," Hussain added. "But this week, the [Saudi]
state-owned media was inciting against the Zionist plan to partition the region
and to divide the region. This is very new."
According to Israeli journalist Lahav Harkov:
"Anti-Israel and antisemitic messages from Saudi regime mouthpieces and
state-sanctioned media have increased in recent weeks, as Riyadh has pivoted
away from a more moderate posture to an alignment with Islamist forces, such as
Qatar and Turkey...
"An editorial in the Saudi government newspaper Al-Riyadh earlier this month
said that 'wherever Israel is present, there is ruin and destruction,' and that
Israel 'do[es] not respect the sovereignty of states or the integrity of their
territories, while working to exploit crises and conflicts to deepen
divisions.'"
Edy Cohen, a research fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy, told
Jewish Insider that the Saudi-backed Arabic news channel Al Arabiya is "very
anti-Israel, they glorify the Palestinians."
One reason for the turn in Saudi messaging is that Riyadh is "very afraid of
Israel," Cohen said, noting that it views recent Israeli actions as going
against Saudi interests.
Cohen noted that Saudi Arabia was mostly quiet about Tehran's violent
suppression of the recent nationwide demonstrations, but behind the scenes, "the
Saudis and the Qataris led a campaign for Trump not to strike Iran."
"[The Saudi leadership] heard [exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi] said
the new Iran will normalize relations with Israel, and this drove the [Saudi and
Qatari] leadership crazy. Imagine Iran and Israel together ... the Shi'a and the
Jews together; it's their biggest nightmare."
According to Harkov:
"Abdul-Hussain put Saudi's pivot in the context of its failed regional
ambitions. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, sought
to move 'from a country that has relied on oil for a living ... to a country
that looked like Dubai, where you have tourism and services, what they call a
knowledge economy. ... Israel is clearly one of the highest knowledge economies
in the world.'
"However, Abdul-Hussain said, 'his experiment has just hit a wall and this
transformation is not happening'... Now, Abdul-Hussain said, 'the quickest tool
that [MBS] can get is to reconnect with the Islamists. ... Look at Turkey and
Qatar using Islamism all the time to project influence, including in Gaza ...
Washington clearly likes them for some reason, so [MBS is] thinking, why not use
Islamism ... as a tool to project power at Saudi's borders? This means they will
have to bash the heck out of Israel.'"
Prominent Israeli journalist Amit Segal also weighed in on the shift in Saudi
Arabia's position:
"Here is the updated assessment now being heard in important capitals in the
region: normalization with Saudi Arabia is dead, at least for the foreseeable
future. The strategic decision to pursue reconciliation with Israel has been
replaced by a wild incitement campaign, whose depth and damage are questionable
in terms of awareness. When Qatar's 'plastic empire' attacks Israel via Al
Jazeera, it is very harmful—but when the preacher in Mecca poisons the entire
Sunni world against Israelis, that is something else entirely.
"Over the past month, [Saudi-owned] Al Arabiya has been worse than Al Jazeera in
the texts broadcast against any normalization with Israel. Saudi podcasters who
specialize in luxury cars or sports are suddenly cursing Zionism and the Abraham
Accords. The broader context is the Saudi-Emirati military confrontation in
Yemen—an attack that should greatly worry Israel and the United States, and that
delights the Houthis, who watch their enemies fight one another.
"Why is this happening? Strangely, Israel has fallen victim to its historic
success in severely damaging Iran's nuclear project and its proxy network. In
2015, the Saudi king sent Netanyahu a note congratulating him on his speech to
Congress against the nuclear deal. That is where the seeds of cooperation with
the moderate Sunni states were sown, culminating in the Abraham Accords. When
concern over Iran reached its peak and interest in the Palestinian issue reached
a low point, the de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, embarked on a campaign to
prepare hearts for peace with Israel. The date was late September 2023.
"[The Hamas-led] October 7 [invasion of Israel] changed everything: it both
reignited Arab interest in the Palestinian issue and led to an Israel–Iran war
on seven fronts. Saudi Arabia received, for free, the goods it wanted in Tehran,
and the price it demanded on the Palestinian issue rose sharply. Contrary to the
impression created, Netanyahu and [former Israeli minister and prime minister
advisor Ron] Dermer were not particularly eager to pay any price to the Saudis
either. 'If not, then not—no force,' Netanyahu said in one cabinet meeting.
"Now, with the Saudis no longer celebrating the Abraham Accords, they are trying
to undermine their foundations of support, from Morocco to the Emirates. Someone
I spoke with this week used an Arab proverb to explain it: "He who cannot reach
the grapes says they are sour." I suggested an Israeli version, straight from
air-defense battle lore: 'If I don't fly, nobody flies.'
"Donald Trump has a move or two available in Riyadh. Israel and its friends in
the region should ask him to use his influence to halt the toxic campaign
against his main international legacy and make clear that an attack on the
accords is an attack on him."
Saudi Arabia's latest anti-Israel campaign raises serious questions about the
kingdom's purported desire to join the Abraham Accords in the first place, as
well as the long-term reliability of other professed allies: in particular
Qatar, Turkey, Russia and Pakistan.
Over the past few years, Mohammed bin Salman found excuses to procrastinate,
often by conditioning normalization with Israel on the establishment of a
Palestinian terror state next to Israel. In the aftermath of the October 7
massacre, it is obvious that such a state would pose an existential threat to
Israel, as would the presence of Qatar, Turkey, Hamas, Russia and Pakistan
planted on the Gaza Strip when Trump will no longer be in office to guard it.
Perhaps this is the right time for Trump to reconsider his ties with bin Salman
-- and other putative "friends" -- and cancel the recent contract to sell the
Saudis that fleet of F-35 stealth fighter jets.
**Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. His work is made
possible through the generous donation of a couple who wish to remain anonymous.
Gatestone is most grateful.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22237/saudi-arabia-poisonous-campaign
© 2026 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute.
Beyond rethinking: Why the US-Saudi partnership demands
a new analytical lens
Abdullah F. Alrebh/Al Arabiya English/29 January/2026
The recent commentary by Lawrence J. Haas regarding the US-Saudi relationship
suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of the current dynamics within the
Kingdom and the broader Middle East. While Haas argues that the United States
needs to “rethink its hopes” for Saudi Arabia, a closer look at the ground
reality reveals that it is not Washington’s hopes that need recalibrating, but
rather the outdated analytical frameworks used to judge Riyadh. To suggest that
the US should distance itself or lower its expectations at this particular
juncture is to ignore one of the most significant socio-political
transformations in modern history. For those of us observing the Kingdom from a
sociological and political perspective, the changes occurring under Vision 2030
are not merely cosmetic; they represent a total shift in the Saudi social
contract. The narrative that Saudi Arabia is an unreliable partner or a stagnant
autocracy fails to account for the massive domestic buy-in for modernization.
The Saudi leadership is not just driving change from the top down; they are
responding to a youthful demographic that demands a globalized, diversified
economy and a more moderate social environment. When critics suggest that the US
should “rethink” the partnership, they risk advocating for the abandonment of a
stabilizing force that is successfully navigating the very reforms Western
observers have called for for decades.
The skepticism regarding Saudi-Israel normalization and regional integration
often misses the point of “Saudi First” diplomacy. Riyadh’s foreign policy is
increasingly defined by strategic autonomy and national interest. This does not
mean a pivot away from the United States, but rather an evolution of the
relationship into a more mature, bilateral partnership. The expectation that
Saudi Arabia should simply align with every US tactical preference without
regard for its own security requirements or its leadership role in the Islamic
world is unrealistic. A stable and prosperous Saudi Arabia is a prerequisite for
a stable Middle East, and that stability is currently being built on a
foundation of economic diversification and social liberalization.
Furthermore, the argument for a US retreat or a “lowering of hopes” ignores the
vacuum such a move would create. In an era of great power competition, the
US-Saudi relationship remains a cornerstone of global energy security and
counter-terrorism. However, the partnership now extends far beyond these
traditional pillars. We are seeing cooperation in emerging technologies,
renewable energy, and regional mediation. To overlook these developments in
favor of a cynical view of Saudi internal affairs is to miss the forest for the
trees. The “hopes” the US should have for the Kingdom should be grounded in the
reality of its progress, celebrating the empowerment of women, the curbing of
extremist ideologies, and the opening of the country to global tourism and
investment.
Critics often point to the pace of political change, but they fail to appreciate
the complexities of managing such a rapid social and economic overhaul in a
region fraught with instability. The Saudi model currently prioritizes
development and security as the necessary precursors to long-term institutional
stability. This is a pragmatic approach that seeks to avoid the chaotic outcomes
seen in other regional states that attempted rapid upheaval without a solid
economic or social foundation.
Instead of rethinking its hopes, the United States should rethink its
engagement. It should move toward a strategy that recognizes Saudi Arabia as a
rising middle power with its own agency. The partnership is most effective when
it is treated as a strategic alliance between two nations with shared interests
in regional stability and global economic health. By viewing the Kingdom through
a lens of progress rather than one of historical prejudice, it becomes clear
that the US-Saudi bond is not a relic of the past, but a vital necessity for the
future. The transformation of Saudi Arabia is a reality that is here to stay,
and it is in Washington’s best interest to be an active partner in that journey.
Selected X tweets fror January
29-30/2026
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Ideas for the Lebanese President
@LBpresidency
) to degrade Hezbollah without military confrontation:
1. Pass a law prohibiting political parties from having armed wings.
2. Publicly demand that Hezbollah disband its military command structure and,
like all other parties, submit a list of its officers and leaders to the state.
3. Dissolve the international “Committee of Five,” especially by removing Saudi
Arabia and Qatar, which appear as Sunni patron powers over Lebanon. For the Shia
to give up Iran, the Sunnis must give up Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.
4. Declare neutrality as Lebanon’s official policy. To regain the title
“Switzerland of the East,” Lebanon must act like neutral Switzerland and stay
out of conflicts.
5. State that Lebanon has fulfilled its obligations to the Palestinian cause,
decouple from it, and sign a peace agreement with Israel (as part of
neutrality).
Spencer Joseph
@SpencerJJoseph
Saudia Arabia has taken a sinister turn in foreign policy, now openly aligning
with jihadism. As with Qatar, the Trump administration is getting played with
cash.
The fall of Assad has created an opportunity for Saudi extremists to strengthen
their regional influence at the expense of Iran. The Saudis are now aligning
with Qatar and Turkey (both supporters of Jihadism), knowing that the West is
showing a weak hand in Syria. Meanwhile, the West (U.S. and Europe combined)
only accounts for an estimated 15–20% of Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports - with
this figure set to drop via more access to Venezuelan oil. Trump's sale of F-35s
to Saudi still requires formal congressional review and notification. This sale
needs to be stopped.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Rumor in the Gulf has it that Riyadh solicited $10 billion each from Doha and
Abu Dhabi. The Qataris paid; the Emiratis did not—perhaps leading to eventual
Saudi frustration and anger.Anyway, the Saudi cash crunch seems to be real,
perhaps deeper than any of us thinks.
Reza Pahlavi
I was pleased to meet with @MAStrackZi, the Chair of the European Parliament’s
Defense and Security Committee to discuss the revolution in Iran. Her support
for the Iranian people and her recognition of the malign role of the current
regime is deeply appreciated. We discussed the change a liberated Iran would
bring to Europe: Instead of causing massive migration though its proxy wars, a
free Iran would stabilize the region and allow refugees to return home. Instead
of taking Europeans hostage and plotting terror in Europe, a free Iran would
become a true partner for commerce and trade. Instead of supplying drones to
murder innocent civilians, a free Iran would be a supplier of oil and gas to
Europe. I reiterated that if Europe and European nations enact the six policies
we have announced and do more than stand but act urgently in support of the
brave people of Iran, that day will be soon.
Masih Alinejad
FUCK YOU!
This is my statement for tomorrow. Yes, Tomorrow at 10:30 in the morning, I’ll
be in federal court in New York, staring down the man who was hired by the
Islamic Republic of Iran to murder me. Whether you join me or not, whether you
like me or not, I will fight for all
U.S. Navy
@USNavy
U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing 8 aircraft fly in formation over the world’s largest
aircraft carrier, Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78),
during Carrier Air Wing 8’s aerial change of command ceremony while underway in
the Caribbean Sea.
U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of the U.S.
Southern Command mission, Department of War-directed operations, and the
president’s priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the
homeland. #PeaceThroughStrength
Martin/@Martin_Sedi
Silence Before the war against Islamic Terrorist Republic.
Across the Middle East, the signs are there quiet, deliberate, and dangerous.
U.S. Army has repositioned major assets: aircraft carriers, destroyers, long
range bombers, air defenses, and fighter squadrons. This is not routine it’s pre
positioning.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue calibrated strikes against Iran backed
forces (Hezbollah, regional proxies) while maintaining high readiness for multi
front escalation.
Western politicians are unusually cautious strong words about deterrence, but no
de escalation language. That kind of messaging often precedes action, not peace.
Israeli media is quieter than expected. Less speculation, fewer leaks
historically a sign of operational sensitivity rather than calm. Islamic
Terrorist Republic has issued explicit warnings of “all out war,” a reaction
that suggests Tehran sees this buildup as real, not symbolic. Airlines
rerouting, embassies tightening security, and regional allies on alert all point
to elevated threat perception behind the scenes. No declaration. No headlines
screaming “war.” But forces are in place, narratives are tightening, and
diplomacy sounds more like a countdown than a solution.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Lebanese Shia citizen Muhammad Harkous (left) with his wife and daughter. He was
kidnapped by Hezbollah earlier this month, tortured, and died under torture.
This is expected. What is not expected is that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
and its Intelligence Branch covered up the murder by issuing statements claiming
he died of a heart attack. When his parents received his body, bruises and
traces of torture were clearly visible.
Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X
Commentary account
A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power,
enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft
Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it
is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and
violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and
negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for
all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran
once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight
Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t
make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President
DONALD J. TRUMP
Reza Pahlavi
I welcome the Italian government’s position on proscribing the IRGC and thank
Foreign Minister @Antonio_Tajani for advancing this in Brussels. It is time to
act decisively in support of the brave people of Iran fighting to free the world
from the Islamic Republic’s terror.
Lindsey Graham
@LindseyGrahamSC
As previously stated, I am trying to work with the administration and regional
partners to prevent a bloodbath in Syria against our Kurdish allies. It is now
time for the region to change their ways and man up for decency. To Saudi
Arabia: I have tried to work hard to chart a new path for relations between your
country, the United States and the region. I have tremendous respect for many of
the changes that have been embraced. However, the Kingdom’s attack on the United
Arab Emirates and their silence regarding the Syrian government’s constant
assault on the Kurds has to change. Please understand that I am smart enough to
know that Saudi Arabia has influence on the Syrian government, and I expect them
to use it to keep the region from falling further into chaos.
To Saudi Arabia: Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
The Palestinian population of 4 million (West Bank and Gaza) is resourceless,
with medium-skilled labor and an economy dependent on global charity. At best,
Palestinians can offer unskilled labor (benefiting Israel most and Palestinians
second, but this ended after Oct 7). Otherwise, there is no value added in
anything Palestinian. In fact, all Palestinians could not fill the city of
Cairo, whose population is 22 million (1.5 times the total Palestinian
population worldwide). If I were Palestinian, despite all the injustice I might
feel Israel has inflicted on me, my ancestors, family, and friends, I would
support immediate and unconditional peace with Israel. After all is said and
done, peace serves Palestinians far more than their pursuit of transforming
self-government into sovereignty.
Criticize Israel? For what? Israel is the highest performer in economics,
science, military, and nearly every indicator in the region. It is an asset from
which the region can learn and benefit. But most regional governments have
chosen emotions over interests. What do you want me to do? I'm just a think
tanker with a keyboard. And I praise the governments who have chosen peace and
normalization with Israel, which I hope this post explains why.