English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News
& Editorials
For January 15/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God
and obey it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-32: “A
woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that
bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those
who hear the word of God and obey it!’When the crowds were increasing, he began
to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign
will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to
the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen
of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and
condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the
wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here! The people
of Nineveh will rise up at the judgement with this generation and condemn it,
because they repented at the proclamation of Jonah, and see, something greater
than Jonah is here!”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January
14-15/2026
The Imperative of Toppling the Mullahs’ Regime, Dismantling Its Terrorist
Arms, and Liberating the Iranian People from the Nightmare of Wilayat
al-Faqih/Elias Bejjani/January 08/2026
Video Link to an interview with the President of the "Identity and Sovereignty"
Movement, former Minister Youssef Salameh/Strategic Reading: Local, Regional,
and International Perspectives.
Hezbollah warns Lebanese state against expanding disarmament push
Lebanon says France to host conference to support army
Army support conference to be held in Paris on March 5
Berri reportedly deems Aoun remarks on Hezbollah 'appropriate'
Syria asks Lebanon to hand over Assad-era officers after Reuters report
Military official says army evaluating situation between Awwali and Litani
rivers
Rajji's remarks on 'Israel’s right' to attack draw condemnations
Hezbollah won't interfere in potential Iran escalation, report says
Diplomats Sought Guarantees from Hezbollah That It Will Hold Fire if Iran Is
Attacked, Source Says
Lebanon, Jordan reaffirm ties, sign 21 cooperation agreements
Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel backs President Aoun on sovereignty, calls for
free parliamentary elections
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry launches preparations for overseas parliamentary
elections
Will Lebanon Hold Parliamentary Elections on Time?/Samar El Kadi/This Is
Beirut/January 14/2026
Lebanon Arrests Syrian Citizen Suspected of Funding Pro-Assad Fighters
Aoun, Hezbollah Ties Cool as Contacts Stay at Minimum/Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/January
14/2026
Lebanon Must Continue Publicly Dismantling Active Hezbollah Installations/David
Daoud/FDD..Policy Brief/January 14/ 2026
In Lebanon, the US has been reduced to playing good cop to Israel's bad
cop/Michael Young/The National/January 14/2026
Beirut’s Commodore Hotel, a haven for journalists during Lebanon’s civil war,
shuts down
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on January
14-15/2026
Iran set to execute protester days after arrest as Tehran speeds up death
sentences
At least 3,428 killed in Iran crackdown on protesters: Rights group
Trump says has been notified killings in Iran have 'stopped'
All eyes on the White House as Trump decision on Iran looms
Iran committing mass unlawful killings 'on unprecedented scale:' Amnesty
International
Iran temporarily closes airspace to most flights
Iran warns neighbors it could hit US bases if Washington strikes
Iran vows fast trials over protests after Trump threat
US opens air defense operations cell in Qatar amid rising Iran tensions
US begins withdrawing personnel from Qatar’s Al-Udeid as Iran tensions rise
Saudi Arabia tells Iran its land, airspace won’t be used in strike: Sources
Riyadh calls for dialogue amid boiling US-Iran tensions: Senior Saudi diplomat
Poland tells its citizens to leave Iran immediately
US expected to unveil post-war Gaza leadership, sources say
Egypt says all parties agree on Gaza technocratic committee members
Israel army says killed six Gaza militants despite ceasefire
US announces launch of phase two of Gaza plan, says Witkoff
Syrian army and Kurdish forces exchange strikes east of Aleppo
Syria moves military reinforcements east of Aleppo after telling Kurds to
withdraw
Trump has clear wish of ‘conquering’ Greenland: Danish minister after talks
US suspends immigrant visa processing for 75 countries
Saudi Arabia welcomes US labeling Muslim Brotherhood branches as terrorist
organizations
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on January
14-15/2026
Tehran
Regime Kills Thousands, Crossing Trump’s Red Line/Janatan Sayeh & Bridget
Toomey/FDD..Policy Brief/January 14/ 2026
Iran’s Islamic rulers are teetering on collapse. Trump must give them a final
shove/Mark Dubowitz/Daily Mail/January 14/2026
Canada eyes stronger ties with Saudi Arabia in 2026/Lama Alhamawi/Arab
News/January 14, 2026
Trump’s transactionalism creates narrow opening for Palestinians/Hady Amr/Arab
News/January 14, 2026
Britons should welcome debate, not shut it down/Peter Harrison/Arab News/January
14, 2026
Iran… an Opening Toward a Transformative Process/Samir Al-Taqi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Ganuary
14/2026
Selected Face Book & X tweets/ January 14/2026
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January
14-15/2026
The Imperative of Toppling the Mullahs’ Regime, Dismantling Its Terrorist
Arms, and Liberating the Iranian People from the Nightmare of Wilayat al-Faqih
Elias Bejjani/January 08/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/150884/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3kbnJVaYOs
From the very moment Ayatollah
Khomeini set foot in Tehran in February 1979—arriving from Paris aboard an Air
France flight—the Middle East entered a dark tunnel from which it has yet to
emerge. The so-called Iranian “revolution,” driven by an alliance of mullahs and
leftist forces against the Shah’s rule, was not merely a domestic popular
uprising. Rather, it was the product of strange ideological alliances,
international complicity, and covert operations, later exposed in intelligence
documents revealing significant U.S. involvement. These dynamics led to the
removal of the Shah and the handover of power to an extremist sectarian current
bearing a dictatorial, expansionist, imperial, and transnational terrorist
project.
The Expansionist Project: An Empire of Militias
From its first day, the mullahs’ regime adopted the doctrine of “exporting the
sectarian revolution” under the guise of Wilayat al-Faqih—a concept that
recognizes neither national sovereignty nor international borders. This ideology
gave rise to armed terrorist proxies fully subordinate to Tehran’s command,
transforming Lebanon and several Arab states into arenas of influence and de
facto Iranian provinces.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah confiscated the state’s sovereign decision-making, turning
the country into a missile platform and a large open-air prison.
In Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, Iranian-backed militias destroyed the social fabric
and national institutions, spreading chaos, poverty, devastation, and civil
wars.
Contradictory Alliances
The mullahs’ regime did not limit its support to Shiite proxies. It also entered
into pragmatic alliances with Sunni political-Islam groups, most notably the
Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots—such as Hamas, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, and
others—in order to destabilize Arab states and undermine moderate regimes.
A Black Record: Domestic Repression and External Terror
Internally, the mullahs transformed Iran—from a promising nation with a great
civilizational heritage—into a vast prison. Since 1979, the regime’s criminal
record has been endless:
Mass executions, including the liquidation of thousands of political opponents,
most notoriously during the 1988 massacres.
Assassinations, targeting intellectuals and dissidents both inside Iran and
abroad.
The Collapse of the State
Today, the Iranian people suffer from water and electricity shortages,
collapsing education, the absence of an independent judiciary, and the
repression of personal freedoms—while the country’s wealth is squandered on
financing foreign wars and missile and nuclear programs.
The Nuclear Threat: A Sword Hanging Over the World
The regime’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities is not peaceful, as it claims, but
rather a protective shield for its terrorist project. Granting a regime driven
by apocalyptic and destructive messianic ideologies access to nuclear weapons
would place the entire world under the threat of nuclear blackmail and
constitute a direct danger to global peace.
The Moment of Truth: The Third Revolution and the National Alternative
Today, for the third time, the Iranian people—across all components of
society—are rising up, openly rejecting this regime.
Their demands are clear: the return of Iran to the international community and
the restoration of its national identity, embodied by Prince Reza Pahlavi as a
symbol of historical legitimacy and stability. Accordingly, the international
community—Arab and Western alike—must abandon the failed policy of “containment”
and move decisively to support the liberation of the Iranian people. A free Iran
is a strategic regional and global interest, as it would mean a safer Middle
East, the end of political Islam in both its Shiite and Sunni forms, and the
cessation of global terrorism financing.
Hezbollah: Iran’s Tool for the Destruction of Lebanon and the Exhaustion of the
Region
No assessment of Iranian subversion is complete without confronting the demonic
functional role played by Hezbollah in Lebanon. This organization has never been
a national project; it is merely a faction of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps, speaking with a Lebanese accent and operating as mercenaries in every
sense of the word. Hezbollah has dragged Lebanon into futile and devastating
wars in service of Tehran’s agenda—starting with the 2006 war that destroyed
infrastructure and displaced hundreds of thousands of Lebanese to improve Iran’s
negotiating position, and culminating in the 2023 war against Israel under the
pretext of “supporting Gaza,” a war in which the Lebanese people had no stake.
Southern Lebanon was turned into scorched earth, sacrificed on the altar of the
mullahs’ nuclear ambitions.
Hezbollah’s terrorism has not been confined to Lebanon. It has functioned as a
transnational mercenary army in the service of Tehran:
In Syria, it participated in the slaughter of the Syrian people and supported
the collapsing Assad regime, contributing to one of the largest
demographic-engineering and forced-displacement operations in modern history. In
Yemen and the Gulf, it provided military and technical support to the Houthi
militia targeting the security of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while operating
espionage and sabotage cells and carrying out assassinations, kidnappings,
bombings, and acts of chaos in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The Greatest Crime: Against Lebanese Shiites
Hezbollah’s gravest crime has been committed against the Shiite community in
Lebanon itself. The party hijacked its free political will, turning it into a
hostage of its project through extremist sectarian indoctrination, brainwashing
young people and throwing them into endless wars. It isolated Lebanese Shiites
from their national and Arab environment and transformed their towns and
villages into weapons depots and missile platforms, sacrificing entire
generations for the survival of the Wilayat al-Faqih regime in Tehran.
Liberating Lebanese Shiites from this terrorist ideological grip is the
essential gateway to restoring the kidnapped Lebanese state.
Conclusion
All free nations must cooperate to topple the mullahs’ regime and dismantle its
terrorist arms. A fundamental structural truth must be acknowledged: Lebanon
will not regain its sovereignty and independence, nor will Gaza, Damascus, or
Baghdad emerge from chaos and collapse, unless the head of the snake in Tehran
is severed.
Hezbollah is nothing more than a sectarian functional tool of the Iranian
regime. When the root falls, the branches inevitably collapse. Lebanon’s true
liberation and independence begin with the fall of the Wilayat al-Faqih
regime—so that the Middle East may once again become a region of construction
rather than militias and death.
Elias Bejjani is a Lebanese expatriate activist
Email:
phoenicia@hotmail.com
Website:
https://eliasbejjaninews.com
Video Link to an interview
with the President of the "Identity and Sovereignty" Movement, former Minister
Youssef Salameh/Strategic Reading: Local, Regional, and International
Perspectives.
January 14, 2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/151111/
Youssef Salemeh's Interview main topics
An international decision has been made to end "Political Islam" in both its
Sunni and Shia branches after its functional role has expired, handing over the
leadership of the region to Israel, and subsequently imposing a decentralized or
broad federal system across all countries in the region.
First: Regional and International Shifts
The End of Political Islam: There is an international decision to terminate the
phenomenon of "Political Islam" (Sunni and Shiites) as its function has
concluded, moving toward consolidating Israel's role in leading the region.
The Decentralization Project: A trend toward imposing "broad decentralization,"
the features of which have begun to emerge in Syria. In this context, "Al-Sharaa"
role in the Syrian is to prepare for a federal or decentralized system.
The Fall of Illusions: The world is governed by American unipolarity, and the
so-called "Axis of Resistance" is merely an illusion. Meanwhile leaders in Third
World countries only perform functional roles for the American operator.
Second: The Status of Hezbollah and Iran
End of the Functional Role: The role of Hezbollah—much like its patrons in
Iran—has ended, and its weapons are no longer capable of even protecting its own
leaders.
The Iranian Regime: The imminent fall of the Mullahs' regime, the Revolutionary
Guard, and the concept of "Wilayat al-Faqih," while Iran is heading toward a
decentralized system of governance.
Third: Lebanese Internal Affairs
Salameh stated that President Joseph Aoun’s mistake (following his election via
international decision) was the failure to form a government of specialists away
from political parties and the "Shiites Duo," as well as maintaining the quota
system instead of confronting corruption.
Weapons and Sovereignty: President Aoun is no longer able to provide political
cover for Hezbollah’s weapons. Only the State is capable of protecting Lebanon's
diverse components.
Civil War: Threats of civil war are "madness and suicide," and the necessary
elements for such a war in Lebanon are non-existent.
Internal Anticipation: Many officials in Lebanon are waiting for Israel to
terminate Hezbollah’s role.
Hezbollah warns Lebanese state
against expanding disarmament push
Reuters/January 14, 2026
BEIRUT: A senior Hezbollah official has warned Lebanon’s government that
pressing on with efforts to disarm the group throughout the country would
trigger chaos and possibly civil war, according to comments circulated by the
armed group on Wednesday. Lebanon has pledged to bring all arms in the country
under state control, in line with a 2024 agreement that ended a devastating war
between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah insists that deal only applies to the
southernmost region of Lebanon that borders Israel and has refused to relinquish
its arsenal elsewhere. In an interview with Russian state media outlet RT,
senior Hezbollah political official Mahmoud Qmati said pursuing a state monopoly
on arms further north would be “the biggest crime committed by the state.”“The
path taken by the Lebanese government and state institutions will lead Lebanon
to instability, chaos and perhaps even civil war,” Qmati said, though he added
that Hezbollah would not be dragged into a confrontation with Lebanon’s army.
The Lebanese army said last week that it had taken operational control in the
area between the Litani River and Israel’s border. The Lebanese cabinet has
asked the army to brief it in early February on how it would pursue disarmament
in other parts of the country. Hezbollah has said that Israeli troops must
withdraw from five hilltop positions they occupy in southern Lebanon, halt
near-daily airstrikes on Lebanon and release detained Lebanese before any
further disarmament is discussed. “There will be no talk or dialogue about any
situation north of the Litani River before Israel withdraws from all Lebanese
territory, liberates the South and the prisoners, and stops its violations
against Lebanon,” said Qmati. Israel says that efforts to disarm Hezbollah
fighters have been insufficient, raising pressure on Lebanese leaders who fear
Israel could escalate strikes. The war in Gaza that erupted in October 2023
triggered months of cross-border hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, with
near-daily exchanges of fire along the Lebanon-Israel frontier.
Lebanon says France to host
conference to support army
AFP/January 14, 2026
BEIRUT: Lebanon said Wednesday that a conference in support of the country’s
army as it seeks to disarm militant group Hezbollah would take place in Paris on
March 5.The announcement follows recent promises of support to the military,
which lacks funds, equipment and technical expertise. Presidency spokeswoman
Najat Charafeddine said President Joseph Aoun met French envoy Jean-Yves Le
Drian, Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan and ambassadors including from the US, Egypt
and Qatar, discussing preparations for “a conference to support the Lebanese
army and internal security forces.”“It was decided to hold the conference in
Paris on March 5, to be opened by French President Emmanuel Macron,” she said at
the presidential palace. Under US pressure and fearing expanded Israeli strikes,
Lebanon has committed to disarming the Iran-backed Hezbollah, which was badly
weakened in more than a year of hostilities with Israel that largely ended in
late 2024. Last week, Lebanon’s army said it had completed the first phase of
its plan to disarm the group, covering the area south of the Litani river,
around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border. A plan for the
disarmament north of the Litani is to be presented to cabinet next month.
Israel, which accuses Hezbollah or rearming, has criticized the army’s progress
as insufficient, while Hezbollah has rejected calls to surrender its weapons.
Lebanon’s army has dismantled tunnels and other military infrastructure
belonging to Hezbollah near the Israeli border in recent months, seizing weapons
and ammunition, despite its limited capacities.Despite the ceasefire, Israel has
kept up regular strikes on Lebanon, usually saying it is targeting Hezbollah,
and has maintained troops in five south Lebanon areas it deems strategic.Last
month, talks with international envoys in Paris touched on the Lebanese army’s
needs, while its chief agreed to document its progress in disarming Hezbollah.
Army support conference to be
held in Paris on March 5
Naharnet/January 14, 2026
French President Emmanuel Macron will open an international conference in
support of the Lebanese Army in Paris on March 5, the Lebanese presidency said
in a statement Wednesday. The statement came after French envoy Jean-Yves Le
Drian, Saudi envoy Prince Yazid Bin Farhan, and the ambassadors of the U.S.,
Qatar and Egypt met Wednesday with President Joseph Aoun in Baabda. Upon his
arrival on Tuesday evening to Beirut, Bin Farhan visited Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam, local media reports said. The meetings Wednesday will discuss the details
of the conference, after the Lebanese army announced the completion of the first
phase of disarming Hezbollah, south of the Litani river. The five diplomats
representing the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar have
taken a leading role in mediating Lebanon's deep political and economic crises.
They will meet later on Wednesday with Salam and Speaker Nabih Berri.On Monday,
Salam met with the ambassadors of these five countries and told them that
Lebanon is determined to implement the arms monopolization plan north of the
Litani River.
Berri reportedly deems Aoun remarks on Hezbollah
'appropriate'
Naharnet/January 14, 2026
Hezbollah was reportedly angered after President Joseph Aoun advised it, in a
televised address, to return to "reason", arguing that in the current
geopolitical climate, the group’s weapons have become unnecessary and a "burden"
on both Lebanon and Hezbollah’s own support base. A prominent source close to
the Hezbollah-Amal alliance told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, in remarks published
Wednesday, that Hezbollah was "hesitant" to voice its discontent before
coordinating with Speaker and ally Nabih Berri, who has a different point of
view. The source described the relation between Aoun and Berri as "more than
excellent", claiming that talks between the two leaders are ongoing and
"positive", including after President Aoun’s remarks, which Berri reportedly
considered "timely and appropriate." Hezbollah is "prioritizing its strategic
alliance" with Berri and is avoiding a hasty statement that is not backed by the
Speaker, the report said.
Syria asks Lebanon to hand
over Assad-era officers after Reuters report
Reuters/January 14, 2026
DUBAI: Syrian authorities have asked Lebanese security forces to hand over more
than 200 senior officers who fled to Lebanon after the fall of Bashar Assad,
following a Reuters investigation that showed how the neighboring country was a
hub for insurgent plotting. On Dec. 18, a top Syrian security official, Brig.
Abdul Rahman Al-Dabbagh, met with his Lebanese counterparts in Beirut to discuss
the exiled Assad-era officers, according to three senior Syrian sources, two
Lebanese security officials, and a diplomat with knowledge of the visit. The
meetings came days after a Reuters investigation detailed rival plots being
pursued by Rami Makhlouf, the billionaire cousin of the ousted president, and
Maj. Gen. Kamal Hassan, former head of military intelligence, both living in
exile in Moscow, to finance potential Alawite militant groups in Lebanon and
along the Syrian coast. Syria and Lebanon share a 375-kilometer border. The two
rival camps aim to undermine the new Syrian government under President Ahmed Al-Sharaa.
Reuters found they are sending money to intermediaries in Lebanon to try and
stir uprisings that would divide Syria and allow the plotters to regain control
over the coastal areas. The population of those areas is dominated by Alawites,
the minority sect associated with the Assad family and the dictatorship’s
ruling elite. Al-Dabbagh, an aide to the head of internal security in
Syria’s Latakia province, an Alawite stronghold, met with Lebanese intelligence
chief Tony Kahwaji and Major General Hassan Choucair, head of the General
Security Directorate, and presented them with the list of senior officers wanted
by Syria. The visit focused on gathering information about the whereabouts and
legal status of the officers, as well as trying to find ways to prosecute or
extradite them to Syria, according to the Syrian sources. They described it as a
direct request from one security agency to another, rather than a demand for
extradition.
Three senior Lebanese security officials confirmed the meetings. One of the
Lebanese officials denied receiving any demands from the Syrians to hand over
the officers. Two others acknowledged receiving a list of names but said none
were senior officers. One of the Lebanese security officials said there is no
evidence of any insurgency being planned, despite the threats against Syria’s
new government detailed in the Reuters reporting. All the officials spoke on
condition of anonymity to reveal details of a highly sensitive cross-border
issue. Among the names handed over by Syrian officials to Lebanon were several
high-ranking figures acting as intermediaries for Makhlouf or Hassan in
Lebanon, according to a Syrian source who saw the list. A Lebanese judicial
official said Syria had not made a formal extradition request to Lebanon,
typically done through the two countries’ justice and foreign ministries.
Accompanying Dabbagh on his Beirut visit was Khaled Al-Ahmad, a former Assad
adviser and childhood friend of Sharaa, who is leading the government’s efforts
to win over the Alawite community through development projects and aid,
according to two witnesses who saw the men together on that mid-December day.
According to the two witnesses, who are both ex-Assad officers, Al-Ahmad and
Dabbagh went together to Azmi, an upscale Beirut restaurant that is popular
among Assad’s men. The two witnesses said they and others interpreted the
outing as a warning to those trying to influence Alawites to rise up against
Syria’s new leaders that Lebanon is no longer a haven. A manager at Azmi
declined to comment on the visit. In a Jan. 2 post on X, Lebanese Deputy Prime
Minister Tarek Mitri called on his government’s security agencies to verify the
information circulating in the media and take action against the Lebanon-based
agents for Assad’s former insiders, Makhlouf and Hassan. “It is incumbent upon
them, and upon all of us, to avert the dangers of any actions that undermine
Syria’s unity or threaten its security and stability, whether in Lebanon or
originating from it,” the tweet read. In response to questions from Reuters,
Lebanon’s General Security referred to Jan. 11 remarks by Lebanese President
Joseph Aoun, who said Lebanon’s military intelligence and other security
agencies had carried out raids in several areas of the country’s north and east.
Aoun said the raids did not produce evidence of the presence of officers linked
to the Assad dictatorship and said Lebanon was continuing to coordinate with
Syria on the issue.
Syrian government officials did not respond to requests for comment. From Jan. 3
to Jan. 6, Lebanese soldiers raided locations and shelters housing displaced
Syrians. The Lebanese Army said 38 Syrians were arrested during the raids on
different charges such as possession of drugs or weapons, or entering the
country illegally. A senior Lebanese security official told Reuters those raids
were linked to the exiles’ plots. Another senior Lebanese security official
emphasized that there was no arrest warrant for the Syrian officers in Lebanon,
nor Interpol requests for them. “We can’t do anything against them,” the
official added.
Military official says army
evaluating situation between Awwali and Litani rivers
Naharnet/January 14/2026
The Lebanese Army is “logistically assessing the situation between the Awali and
Litani rivers," a Lebanese military source said, noting that "based on this
assessment, the army will develop a vision for the second phase of arms
monopolization." The source emphasized to Al-Jazeera that "military efforts in
phase 2 must coincide with political, social and economic efforts," pointing out
that "Israeli attacks and a lack of cooperation from Hezbollah’s social
environment could obstruct the implementation of the second phase." The source
added that the second phase requires “national agreements and securing
(military) aid,” warning that “if no alternative to UNIFIL is provided, there
may be friction between the Lebanese and Israeli armies."“The army needs to
recruit 4,000 personnel following the withdrawal of UNIFIL forces,” the source
said, adding that “checkpoints have been reinforced across all regions to
prevent the transfer of weapons north of the Litani” and that “any discovered
weapons are being confiscated.” The source also confirmed that officers from the
former Syrian regime were detained, but that “investigations did not show they
were planning any movements.”
Rajji's remarks on 'Israel’s right' to attack draw condemnations
Naharnet/January 14/2026
Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji’s latest remarks on Israel and the ceasefire
agreement have drawn condemnations from Hezbollah officials. "As long as weapons
are not permanently restricted, Israel unfortunately has the right to continue
its attacks according to the agreement," Rajji said in an interview. Health
Minister Rakan Nassereddine hit back at Rajji, emphasizing that the requirements
of ministerial solidarity demand “standing by the Lebanese people and
reaffirming that the aggressor is always the Israeli enemy.”MP Ali Ammar also
responded, saying Rajji “went as far as granting the Israeli enemy the right to
attack Lebanon and justifying all its crimes against the Lebanese people,”
calling the move “a resounding political, national and moral failure.”“Instead
of performing his natural duty of condemning Israeli aggression and activating
diplomatic efforts to raise his voice in international forums in defense of
Lebanese sovereignty and citizens, and in rejection of Zionist arrogance and
aggression, we see him justifying the Zionist criminality and killing to which
his fellow countrymen are being subjected," Ammar lamented. Ammar accordingly
said Rajji’s statement necessitates a “clear and decisive stance” from President
Joseph Aoun and PM Nawaf Salam to “put an end to this type of rhetoric, which
fuels internal divisions and serves only the enemy and its interests."
Hezbollah won't interfere in potential Iran escalation,
report says
Naharnet/January 14/2026
President Joseph Aoun is reassured that Hezbollah will not join a potential war
between U.S.-Israel and Iran, official sources close to the president said. The
sources claimed that high-level talks with Hezbollah have reassured the
president that the group would not join a potential regional escalation in Iran.
According to a report published Wednesday in the Kuwaiti daily al-Anba,
Hezbollah has assured Aoun that it is committed to avoiding a direct military
entanglement that would jeopardize Lebanon’s security in the event of a joint
U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. In a statement Tuesday, Hezbollah praised
demonstrations held in Iran in support of the regime, describing them as a
"popular" endorsement of Iran’s leadership and the "Axis of Resistance." In a
recent televised address, Aoun had called on Hezbollah to return to "reason",
arguing that in the current geopolitical climate, the group’s weapons have
become unnecessary and a "burden" on both Lebanon and Hezbollah’s own support
base.Hezbollah was reportedly angered but was "hesitant" to voice its discontent
before coordinating with Speaker and ally Nabih Berri, a prominent source close
to the group told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Diplomats Sought Guarantees from Hezbollah That It Will
Hold Fire if Iran Is Attacked, Source Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Ganuary 14/2026
Diplomats have sought guarantees from Lebanese armed group Hezbollah that it
would not take military action if the United States or Israel carried out on
an attack on Iran, a Lebanese source familiar with the group's thinking told
Reuters on Wednesday. The source said the Iran-backed group was approached
through diplomatic channels last week. Hezbollah did not offer explicit
guarantees but has no plans to act if the strike on Iran is not "existential"
for Iran's leadership, the source added.
Lebanon, Jordan reaffirm ties,
sign 21 cooperation agreements
LBCI/January 14/2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said relations between Jordan and Lebanon
are longstanding, following talks with Jordanian Prime Minister Jafar Hassan.
Speaking after the meeting, Salam said discussions were constructive and covered
cooperation in transport, investment, education, health, media, the digital
economy, and security. Salam said the two sides agreed to continue coordination
and ensure the practical implementation of what was agreed, noting that a large
number of memorandums of understanding were signed. He described Hassan’s visit
as a real opportunity to redirect policy toward rebuilding the Lebanese state.
For his part, Hassan called for consolidating the ceasefire in Gaza, stressing
that the goal remains achieving a just and comprehensive peace based on the
two-state solution. He said the two countries signed 21 agreements covering
various fields of cooperation and agreed to maintain close communication and
coordination to explore future areas of partnership. Hassan added that Lebanon
is capable of reclaiming its role in the region, stressing that Jordan will
continue to stand firmly by Lebanon.
Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel backs President Aoun on
sovereignty, calls for free parliamentary elections
LBCI/January 14/2026
Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel reaffirmed his support for President Joseph
Aoun in efforts to restore state sovereignty, saying, “We reject any compromise
on parliamentary elections.”Gemayel expressed his desire for parliamentary
elections to be free across all Lebanese regions, stressing that Lebanese
citizens should enjoy freedom of movement in the south and the Bekaa, just as in
the rest of the country. On the elections, Gemayel called on the state to adopt
a different approach this time, particularly in ensuring the protection of
candidates and voters in areas under the party’s influence. He said that holding
elections based on the six expatriate seats is not feasible, according to the
prime minister, adding that voting in the same manner as in 2022 requires
amendments, as does the proposal for expatriates to return and vote in Lebanon.
He argued that the three options currently on the table are not viable or
implementable. In this context, Gemayel noted that President Aoun had assured
him that the Lebanese army is operating north of the Litani River and that its
work will not stop.
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry launches preparations for overseas parliamentary
elections
LBCI/January 14/2026
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry issued a circular on Wednesday to all Lebanese
diplomatic and consular missions abroad, outlining preparations for holding
parliamentary elections for Lebanese citizens residing outside the country. The
circular states that the registration process for non-resident Lebanese voters
was completed smoothly and successfully, without any major issues, thanks to the
efforts of diplomatic missions and their staff. It highlights in particular the
final days of registration, which saw a surge of thousands of applications.
According to the circular, all registration lists have been sent sequentially to
Lebanon’s Interior Ministry in line with established procedures. The ministry is
tasked with reviewing and refining the lists and is expected to provide the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the preliminary approved electoral rolls by
February 1, 2026. These lists will then be circulated, published, and shared
with all registered voters abroad, allowing them to review the information and
correct any potential errors within the legal timeframes. The circular instructs
each mission with more than 200 registered voters to begin early preparations to
implement the law in their host country. This includes identifying the necessary
procedures to organize the electoral process and preparing a comprehensive
estimated budget covering the number and geographic distribution of polling
centers and stations, logistical and technical requirements, and human resources
needs, including whether additional staff will be required. It also clarifies
that the Ministry of Interior will provide the core electoral materials, such as
ballot boxes, voter lists, stationery, envelopes, and ink, which should
therefore be excluded from the estimated budget. The circular concludes by
stressing the need to submit all required information to the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs within two weeks, in order to meet constitutional deadlines and enable
the ministry to complete preparations once the decree calling the electoral
bodies is issued, setting the date for overseas voting.
Will Lebanon Hold Parliamentary Elections on Time?
Samar El Kadi/This Is Beirut/January 14/2026
Lebanon’s parliamentary elections are officially scheduled for May, but an
impasse over proposed changes to the electoral law has cast doubt on whether the
vote will go ahead on time. While most parties have publicly committed to
holding the vote as scheduled, the election date and key rules governing it have
become bargaining chips in Lebanon’s political bazaar. “Technically and
logistically the [elections] can take place as scheduled under the existing law,
despite its many flaws,” elections expert Nazih Darwish told This is Beirut.
“The sole reason for delaying the poll is purely political,” he added.
How Lebanese expatriates will vote has become the most politically sensitive
fault line surrounding the elections. The upcoming parliamentary elections are
governed by the 2017 electoral law, which stipulates the creation of six
additional seats in parliament reserved for Lebanese casting ballots from
abroad, a measure that has since gone unimplemented. Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri, the head of the Amal Movement and an ally of Hezbollah, has refused to
bring to a vote a proposed amendment to allow Lebanese abroad to vote in their
district of origin, the system used in the 2018 and 2022 elections. Hezbollah
and the Free Patriotic Movement favor limiting diaspora voters to six districts,
a move widely seen as benefiting them electorally. The Lebanese Forces, the
Kataeb Party, and other groups, by contrast, support allowing expatriates to
cast ballots across all 128 of Lebanon’s electoral districts, which would
deliver these parties key votes in several highly-contested districts. The
parliamentary split over expatriate voting has paralyzed the legislature,
explained Information International researcher Mohammad Chamseddine, who added
that the political crisis can only be resolved through a broad consensus.
Analysts interviewed by This is Beirut forecast three scenarios for the
parliamentary elections: holding them on schedule, a limited technical
postponement of a few weeks, or the controversial choice of far lengthier delay.
Darwish explained that a possible settlement could include eliminating diaspora
voting altogether, and instead delay the elections until the summer tourism
season to allow expatriates to return to Lebanon to vote, as was done in the
2009 elections. Then, an estimated 48,000 diaspora voters flew into
Lebanon to cast their ballots, with political parties reportedly paying for
their airfare or chartering planes. A repeat of this system, however, would deny
political representation for Lebanon’s expatriates—whose numbers have surged
since the 2019 economic crisis—unable to return home. If faced with an
insurmountable deadlock on the elections, political parties could agree to
extend the mandate of the current parliament, pushing back the elections for a
year or more. In May 2013, parliament first extended its term until November
2014, then continued to do so repeatedly until the 2018 elections, ostensibly
citing security concerns, while mired in a paralyzing political deadlock. “This
is the most controversial and least legitimate option, likely triggering
domestic backlash and international pressure,” said Imad Salamey, political
science professor at the Lebanese American University. “The most likely scenario
is a technical postponement, justified by security, logistical, or unresolved
legal issues, notably expatriate voting,” he added.
Electoral calculations are likely to push politicians to avoid a lengthy delay,
according to analysts. “The Lebanese Forces believe holding the elections on
time could translate into tangible parliamentary gains,” Salamey said. A
postponement would also undermine President Joseph Aoun, who, since being
elected to office in December 2024, has attempted to push through an agenda of
reforms and Hezbollah’s disarmament. For Darwish, missing the election deadline
would tarnish Aoun’s new mandate, and shake Lebanese hope for positive change.
Postponement – despite constitutional deadlines - could jeopardize Hezbollah’s
calculations and boost the group’s opponents. Some analysts believe that
Hezbollah’s weakening after the war and the elimination of its top leadership
would likely have only a limited direct impact on its core electoral results.
“Having an armed or disarmed Hezbollah would not affect the poll’s results
immediately,” Darwish said. Meanwhile, Salamey contended that “Hezbollah,
despite its post-war weakening, calculates that it can still mobilize and
preserve its core base while quietly fearing that delay would allow popular
resentment, economic collapse, and security fatigue to further erode its
standing.”For Salamey, the more consequential effect would be indirect,
including diminished authority over allies and reduced capacity to shape
national coalitions. “The erosion of Hezbollah’s military and organizational
standing would translate less into immediate parliamentary collapse and more
into a gradual contraction of its broader political influence,” he said. If
postponing the elections is not accompanied by disarmament efforts, no one
should expect major changes in the next parliament. However, if Lebanon moves
forward with disarmament north of Litani, Hezbollah’s narrative would be
drastically weakened, and this could be translated into shifts in voters and
alliances, and eventually in the next parliament.
Lebanon Arrests Syrian Citizen Suspected of Funding Pro-Assad Fighters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Ganuary 14/2026
Lebanese authorities have arrested a Syrian citizen who is suspected of sending
money to fighters loyal to former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Syria,
judicial officials said Wednesday. Ahmad Dunia was detained in recent days in
Lebanon’s region of Jbeil north of Beirut and is being questioned over alleged
links to Assad’s maternal cousin Rami Makhlouf as well as a former Syrian army
general who left the country after Assad’s fall in December 2024, the officials
said. The officials described Dunia as the “financial arm” of the wealthy
Makhlouf, saying he had been sending money to former Assad supporters in Syria
who work under the command of ousted Syrian general Suheil al-Hassan who is
believed to be in Russia. The officials said the money was mostly sent to
pro-Assad fighters who are active in Syria’s coastal region, where many members
of his Alawite minority sect live. Allegations that Dunia was financing Assad
allies was first reported by Qatar’s Al Jazeera TV. He was then arrested by
Lebanese security forces, according to officials who spoke on condition of
anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The arrest
came a week after a Syrian security delegation visited Beirut and handed over to
officials in Lebanon lists of dozens of names of former members of Assad’s
security agencies whom they said are directing anti-government operations in
Syria from Lebanon. Dunia’s name was one of those on the list, the officials
said. Since Assad’s fall, there have been several skirmishes between his
supporters and the country’s new authorities. In March last year, violence that
began with clashes between armed groups aligned with Assad and the new
government’s security forces spiraled into sectarian revenge attacks and
massacres that killed hundreds of civilians from the Alawite minority.
Aoun, Hezbollah Ties Cool as Contacts Stay at Minimum
Beirut: Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 14/2026
Relations between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah have grown
visibly strained, with contacts confined to what ministerial sources described
as “the bare minimum.”The chill has deepened following Aoun’s recent remarks on
Hezbollah’s weapons, which widened the rift between the two sides and triggered
pointed criticism from the group at the president. In a televised interview last
week marking the first anniversary of his election, Aoun said that “the role of
weapons outside the state has ended with the presence of the army, and their
continued existence has become a burden on their own environment and on Lebanon
as a whole, with no remaining deterrent role.”In response, former
Hezbollah-aligned minister Mohammed Fneish said in a television interview that
the party had “reservations on the president’s recent positions,” adding: “We
disagree with him in form and substance in some passages. We are not another
party. We are a resistance force that played a major role in liberating
Lebanon.”
Cool communication
Ministerial sources familiar with Aoun’s position stressed that “the stances he
expressed are not new, but the current circumstances may differ from previous
ones.”Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, the sources said the remarks stem from the
president’s conviction that weapons outside the framework of the state no longer
serve any purpose, that their role has ended, and that they have become a burden
on everyone, including the Shiite community and Hezbollah’s own base. “This is,
ultimately, a description of an existing reality,” the sources said. They added
that reactions from Hezbollah’s supporters were expected, but would not prevent
communication from continuing, since maintaining contact serves the interests of
both sides, particularly Hezbollah.
Aoun and Salam
In recent years, Hezbollah had sought to maintain good relations with Aoun. Its
lawmakers voted for him during the presidential election session after months of
backing Suleiman Franjieh’s candidacy. The group’s leadership even opened
discreet talks with Aoun on what became known as the “national security
strategy,” though these discussions yielded no results. Channels of
communication remain open on the issue of weapons north of the Litani River,
amid Hezbollah’s refusal to cooperate on this file. Since the cabinet approved a
decision last August restricting weapons to the state, Hezbollah’s leadership
and supporters have focused their criticism on the government in which the group
is represented. Ties have worsened between Hezbollah and Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam, whom the group did not back during parliamentary consultations that named
him as premier last year.
A natural reaction
Political writer Dr. Kassem Kassir, who closely follows Hezbollah’s position,
said the reaction of the party's supporters to Aoun’s remarks was “a natural
response,” particularly because the president did not take into account what he
described as the "role of the resistance in protecting Lebanon."He added that
calls to end the role of weapons were made without offering guarantees for what
would follow or proposing alternative options. Kassir told Asharq Al-Awsat that
the stance of Hezbollah’s supporters did not necessarily reflect the position of
the leadership. Communication channels remain open, but contacts have failed to
produce a unified vision. He added that Hezbollah has formal reservations about
the performance of the government and the state, especially regarding Israeli
negotiations and what it views as concessions made without guarantees or
tangible results.
Duality in rhetoric
University professor and lawyer Ali Murad said that segments of Hezbollah’s
supporters on social media adopt an extreme accusatory tone toward anyone who
disagrees with them, leaving no room for nuance. However, he argued that the
problem goes beyond the supporters themselves and lies in the political rhetoric
and mobilization Hezbollah has relied on for decades, "which entrenched a
culture that recognizes only black and white and promotes accusations of
betrayal, either fully with us or fully against us." Murad told Asharq Al-Awsat
that the "real issue lies in Hezbollah’s dual rhetoric." He said the party "is
fully aware that the reality has become extremely difficult following major
losses and a military defeat on one hand, and the broader retreat of the Axis of
Resistance on the other. As a result, a clear contradiction has emerged between
what Hezbollah says and what it actually believes."This contradiction, Murad
said, is evident in the speeches of Hezbollah’s secretary general Sheikh Naim
Qassem, which reflect two parallel narratives. "One acknowledges reality to a
degree while maintaining rejection of handing over weapons. The other is a
mobilizing discourse rooted in an earlier era, before the pager operation and
the 'support front' war." “What Aoun said falls in this direction,” Murad said,
arguing that Hezbollah in its former state has ended and has become a burden on
Lebanon, the Shiite community, and the residents of the south.
"Persisting with the same rhetoric today amounts to rejecting reality and
practicing denial, a form of political arrogance reflected by both supporters
and the group’s media circles."
No interest in breaking ties
Murad said what angered Hezbollah’s supporters most was “the truth they do not
want to acknowledge,” namely that Hezbollah’s role has ended, that it has exited
the deterrence equation, and that it can no longer achieve Lebanon’s objectives
on its own. “The president stated a truth that needed to be said,” he said.
Asked whether the relationship between Hezbollah and Aoun was nearing a breaking
point, Murad said it was not in Hezbollah’s interest to sever political ties
with the president, or even with the prime minister. He noted that the group
understands that the actions of both officials serve Lebanon’s interests and, in
particular, the interests of the south. In some respects, he added, this
approach also spares Hezbollah and its base the risks of "fatal choices that
could lead to a bleak outcome if denial or political self-destruction were to
prevail."
Lebanon Must Continue Publicly Dismantling Active Hezbollah
Installations
David Daoud/FDD..Policy Brief/January 14/ 2026
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/13/lebanon-must-continue-publicly-dismantling-active-hezbollah-installations/
Lebanese news outlet Al Jadeed published three leaked images on January 6
allegedly showing Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers seizing a massive
Hezbollah installation located south of the Litani River — between Kafra and
Siddiqine — in mid-December. As it approaches the Mediterranean, the Litani runs
about 20 miles north of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Lebanese media alleged
Israel had repeatedly targeted, but failed to damage, the supposedly 7 km-long
installation. The LAF reportedly dismantled only 40 percent of the sizable
installation prior to the leak, discovering three cruise missiles, almost 2,000
122 mm rockets, millions of AK-47 rounds, and at least one Soviet-manufactured
drone modified by Hezbollah. After the November 2024 ceasefire took effect,
Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces north of the Litani, while the LAF took
responsibility for demilitarizing the area south of the river. While this
seizure is a welcome step from Beirut, it remains unclear whether its purpose is
mainly cosmetic or whether it portends a consistent effort by Lebanese
authorities to prevent Hezbollah’s regeneration south of the Litani.
Beirut Wants To Seem Active Against Hezbollah
Since the ceasefire went into effect, Lebanon has been seeking to leverage the
appearance of action against Hezbollah to bring about an end to Israel’s ongoing
military operations and presence in the country, which consists of five posts in
the south. Hezbollah also has good reason to encourage the belief that the LAF
is taking action against it south of the Litani. The LAF issued a declaration
that it has taken “operation control” over the area south of the Litani. Beirut
is trying to leverage that control to secure Israeli concessions. The Lebanese
are reportedly seeking an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, return of
Lebanese detainees in Israeli custody, and a cessation of Israel’s operations
before the government decides if they will proceed with the second phase of
Hezbollah’s disarmament north of the Litani and south of the Awali River.
Sources told Ad-Diyar that this second phase will require a relatively long
period to implement. Hezbollah, which is suffering near-daily losses in
personnel and assets at Israeli hands, therefore has a vested stake in the
success of Lebanese diplomatic efforts.
Beirut Has a Record of Doing Less Than It Claims
Despite the LAF’s declaration of operational control south of the Litani,
Israeli operations continue to target Hezbollah assets and personnel allegedly
involved in the group’s regeneration efforts there. Beirut’s self-appointed
deadline for demilitarizing that sector was December 31, so Israel
understandably questions the LAF’s supposed achievement. This inconsistency
amplifies Lebanon’s post-ceasefire record of overpromising and underdelivering
on disarming Hezbollah. Relatedly, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem
dismissed the LAF’s disarmament efforts in July, saying, “They’re talking about
what they’ve seen south of the Litani River, but thank God the country is
vast.”These confluent factors create the impression that Tuesday’s media leak
could plausibly be part of a broader Lebanese effort to deceive the
international community — one in which Hezbollah has reason to participate.
Coupled with Lebanon’s history of prevaricating on disarming or restraining
Hezbollah — and because the overwhelming Shiite support that has historically
restrained Beirut from acting against the group remains intact — the Lebanese
will find it difficult to dispel reasonable suspicions regarding their
sincerity. That is, unless the seizure disclosed on Tuesday becomes part of a
consistent, public, demonstrable, and sufficiently documented pattern instead of
mere declarations.
Options for Washington
The United States can adopt a two-pronged approach to encouraging Lebanon to
pursue this course. On the one hand, Washington can support a tempo of Israeli
operations that remains short of full-scale war but that matches or, ideally,
exceeds the pace of the group’s regeneration efforts. It can simultaneously
press Lebanon to begin seizing and publicly disclosing Hezbollah installations,
beginning south, and then proceeding north of the Litani, where the group has
objected to disarmament, and with no preconditions. If that is achieved, the
United States can then press Israel to gradually reduce and finally end its
operations and presence in Lebanon – in parallel with Hezbollah’s total
disarmament.
**David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs. For more analysis
from David and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on X @DavidADaoud.
Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research
institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
In Lebanon, the US has been reduced to playing good cop to
Israel's bad cop
Michael Young/The National/January 14/2026
An intriguing news story appeared on January 7 in Lebanese newspapers. It
claimed that the US envoy to Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, had expressed her
reluctance to attend a session that day of the so-called Mechanism, the
five-party committee to discuss implementation of the ceasefire agreement
reached between Lebanon and Israel in 2024, because she saw them as “repetitive
and where no major progress is being made”.
Whether the quote was correct or not, one thing that is undeniable is that Ms
Ortagus is impatient with the slow pace of Hezbollah’s disarmament by the
Lebanese state. But this begs a couple of questions: Did the administration of
US President Donald Trump ever seriously believe that such a process would be
smooth? And if it did, what does this tell us about its competence?
The quality of any negotiation often depends on the quality of the party
mediating. Former US president Jimmy Carter, for example, was instrumental in
bringing about an agreement between Egypt and Israel at Camp David, as was the
late diplomat Richard Holbrooke in helping secure the Dayton Agreement to end
the war in Bosnia.
Israel warns Lebanese army efforts to disarm Hezbollah encouraging but not
sufficient
Israel not happy with Lebanon's progress in disarming Hezbollah
In Lebanon, however, the quality of American mediators has been more
questionable. While Ms Ortagus is said to be bright, she doesn’t appear to have
much experience in Middle Eastern negotiations. Her initial arrival in Lebanon
was marked by a remarkable blunder, when she expressed gratitude to Israel for
“defeating Hezbollah”, ignoring that the Israelis had killed more than 2,700
Lebanese.
It was quickly apparent that Ms Ortagus was less there to reach a compromise
between the two sides on how to implement the ceasefire deal of November 2024,
than to impose Washington’s and Israel’s conditions on the weaker, Lebanese
side. She has stuck to this agenda, and if she seems in a hurry today, it’s
because Lebanon refuses to enter into an armed conflict with Hezbollah to please
the Americans and Israelis.
It would be a mistake to blame Ms Ortagus alone, however. The US mediator during
the conflict last year, Amos Hochstein, who was appointed by then-president Joe
Biden, merits a significant share of criticism. In Washington’s zeal to give
Israel a decisive advantage in the ceasefire agreement, Mr Hochstein negotiated
on two parallel tracks: one track leading to the agreement itself; the other, to
give Israel a side letter.
What made Mr Hochstein’s manoeuvre so reprehensible is that the side letter gave
the Israelis the means to undermine the ceasefire deal. It stated that Israel
was entitled to take military action against alleged Hezbollah threats in south
Lebanon, while perceived threats outside that area had to be passed on to the
Lebanese army to address.
Since November 2024, Israel has violated the ceasefire agreement over 10,000
times, and more than 335 people have been killed and 970 injured, according to
the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Effectively, the
Americans imposed a ceasefire on one side, while ignoring the violations of the
other.
According to the ceasefire agreement, Israel was also supposed to withdraw from
Lebanon in late January last year. The Israelis ignored the deadline, and the
Lebanese and Hezbollah were forced to accept a new deadline of February 18.
Israel ignored that too, and the Trump administration did nothing about it.
Perhaps, like Ms Ortagus, they were too grateful to the Israelis to pay much
attention.
For a time, it appeared that Ms Ortagus would be replaced by the Trump
administration’s ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack.
Mr Barrack is of Lebanese origin, so there was some expectation he might deal
with Lebanon in a more flexible way. In fact, he proved to be worse than Ms
Ortagus, and quickly found himself isolated both in Israel and Beirut.
The nadir of Mr Barrack’s diplomacy came in August last year. Before travelling
to Israel, he had managed to secure formal Lebanese government approval for a
disarmament plan encompassing Hezbollah. His wager was that if Lebanon took such
a major step, he could then persuade the Israelis to make concessions of their
own – reducing their attacks and pulling out from some Lebanese areas they
occupy – that would strengthen Beirut’s hand in its disarmament talks with
Hezbollah.
Before travelling to Israel, Mr Barrack had sounded upbeat, saying: “The
Lebanese government has done their part. Now what we need is Israel to comply
with that equal handshake.” Except that upon his return to Beirut, he admitted
that Israel had rejected making positive steps of its own, contributing to
ending Mr Barrack’s role as envoy to Lebanon.
The quality of any negotiation often depends on the quality of the party
mediating
This was more than a setback. It was a sign that Mr Barrack had no leverage over
Israel and was not supported by the White House, despite his supposed closeness
to Mr Trump. Meanwhile, he was being attacked by pro-Israel figures in
Washington, who disliked his declared willingness to deal with and accommodate
Iran and Hezbollah. It also showed that the US had no coherent Lebanon policy
beyond imposing diktats. Subsequently, Ms Ortagus returned to Beirut, but she
doesn’t seem to have new ideas for how to break the deadlock. The Americans are
not asking Israel to respect the provisos of the ceasefire deal they negotiated,
but, absurdly, are trying to create dynamics leading to normalisation between
Lebanon and Israel. In other words, they want the Lebanese to normalise with a
country currently occupying their land and killing their citizens. For as long
as the Americans act as biased mediators, they will fail to achieve their aims.
This may suit Israel, as it prefers to deal with Lebanon without US
interference, while the Lebanese have largely lost faith in the Americans. All
this suggests that war may resume this year, unless changes in Iran completely
alter Hezbollah’s calculations.
Beirut’s Commodore Hotel, a haven for journalists during
Lebanon’s civil war, shuts down
AP/January 14, 2026
BEIRUT: During Lebanon’s civil war, the Commodore Hotel in western Beirut’s
Hamra district became iconic among the foreign press corps. For many, it served
as an unofficial newsroom where they could file dispatches even when
communications systems were down elsewhere. Armed guards at the door provided
some sense of protection as sniper fights and shelling were turning the
cosmopolitan city to rubble.
The hotel even had its own much-loved mascot: a cheeky parrot at the bar.
The Commodore endured for decades after the 15-year civil war ended in 1990 —
until this week, when it closed for good. The main gate of the nine-story hotel
with more than 200 rooms was shuttered Monday. Officials at the Commodore
refused to speak to the media about the decision to close. Although the
country’s economy is beginning to recover from a protracted financial crisis
that began in 2019, tensions in the region and the aftermath of the
Israel-Hezbollah war that was halted by a tenuous ceasefire in November 2024 are
keeping many tourists away. Lengthy daily electricity cuts force businesses to
rely on expensive private generators. The Commodore is not the first of the
crisis-battered country’s once-bustling hotels to shut down in recent years. But
for journalists who lived, worked and filed their dispatches there, its demise
hits particularly hard. “The Commodore was a hub of information — various
guerrilla leaders, diplomats, spies and of course scores of journalists circled
the bars, cafes and lounges,” said Tim Llewellyn, a former BBC Middle East
correspondent who covered the civil war. “On one occasion (late Palestinian
leader) Yasser Arafat himself dropped in to sip coffee with” with the hotel
manager’s father, he recalled. A line to the outside world At the height of the
civil war, when telecommunications were dysfunctional and much of Beirut was cut
off from the outside world, it was at the Commodore where journalists found land
lines and Telex machines that always worked to send reports to their media
organizations around the globe.
Across the front office desk in the wide lobby of the Commodore, there were two
teleprinters that carried reports of The Associated Press and Reuters news
agencies. “The Commodore had a certain seedy charm. The rooms were basic, the
mattresses lumpy and the meal fare wasn’t spectacular,” said Robert H. Reid, the
AP’s former Middle East regional editor, who was among the AP journalists who
covered the war. The hotel was across the street from the international agency’s
Middle East head office at the time. “The friendly staff and the camaraderie
among the journalist-guests made the Commodore seem more like a social club
where you could unwind after a day in one of the world’s most dangerous cities,”
Reid said. Llewellyn remembers that the hotel manager at the time, Yusuf Nazzal,
told him in the late 1970s “that it was I who had given him the idea” to open
such a hotel in a war zone. Llewellyn said that during a long chat with Nazzal
on a near-empty Middle East Airlines Jumbo flight from London to Beirut in the
fall of 1975, he told him that there should be a hotel that would make sure
journalists had good communications, “a street-wise and well-connected staff
running the desks, the phones, the teletypes.”During Israel’s 1982 invasion of
Lebanon and a nearly three-month siege of West Beirut by Israeli troops,
journalists used the roof of the hotel to film fighter jets striking the city.
The parrot at the bar
One of the best-known characters at the Commodore was Coco the parrot, who was
always in a cage near the bar. Patrons were often startled by what they thought
was the whiz of an incoming shell, only to discover that it was Coco who made
the sound. AP’s chief Middle East correspondent Terry Anderson was a regular at
the hotel before he was kidnapped in Beirut in 1985 and held for seven years,
becoming one of the longest-held American hostages in history. Videos of
Anderson released by his kidnappers later showed him wearing a white T-shirt
with the words “Hotel Commodore Lebanon.” With the kidnapping of Anderson and
other Western journalists, many foreign media workers left the
predominantly-Muslim western part of Beirut, and after that the hotel lost its
status as a safe haven for foreign journalists.
Ahmad Shbaro, who worked at different departments of the hotel until 1988, said
the main reason behind the Commodore’s success was the presence of armed guards
that made journalists feel secure in the middle of Beirut’s chaos as well as
functioning telecommunications. He added that the hotel also offered financial
facilities for journalists who ran out of money. They would borrow money from
Nazzal and their companies could pay him back by depositing money in his bank
account in London. Shbaro remembers a terrifying day in the late 1970s when the
area of the hotel was heavily shelled and two rooms at the Commodore were hit.
“The hotel was full and all of us, staffers and journalists, spent the night at
Le Casbah,” a famous nightclub in the basement of the building, he said. In
quieter times, journalists used to spend the night partying by the pool. “It was
a lifeline for the international media in West Beirut, where journalists filed,
ate, drank, slept, and hid from air raids, shelling, and other violence,” said
former AP correspondent Scheherezade Faramarzi. “It gained both fame and
notoriety,” she said, speaking from the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. The
hotel was built in 1943 and kept functioning until 1987 when it was heavily
damaged in fighting between Shiite and Druze militiamen at the time. The old
Commodore building was later demolished and a new structure was build with an
annex and officially opened again for the public in 1996. But Coco the parrot
was no longer at the bar. The bird went missing during the 1987 fighting. Shbaro
said it is believed he was taken by one of the gunmen who stormed the hotel.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on January
14-15/2026
Iran set to execute protester days after arrest as Tehran speeds up death
sentences
Euronews/January 14/2026
Iranian judicial authorities have informed a prisoner's family that his death
sentence will be carried out Wednesday, less than a week after his arrest,
according to human rights organisation Hengau. Erfan Soltani, 26, was detained
at his home in Fardis on 8 January. Four days later, authorities notified his
family a death sentence had been issued and confirmed. Soltani is currently held
in Qazl-Hisar prison in Karaj, according to unconfirmed reports. Judicial
authorities ordered his family to visit the prison Tuesday to meet him. The
timing has raised concerns this would be a final meeting before execution. New
videos from anti-government protests in Iran continue to emerge. Footage from a
Euronews source shows violent clashes in Tehran. Reports suggest Soltani's case
proceeded without minimum fair trial standards. He has been denied access to a
lawyer of choice and other legal rights from arrest until sentencing. A source
close to the family told Hengau that Soltani's sister, a barrister, applied to
represent her brother and investigate his case but authorities prevented her
from accessing the file. The family has been kept unaware of the details of the
charges against Soltani or the court process. Human rights organisations
expressed grave concern over the possible establishment of "field courts" and
the use of the death penalty to suppress protests. The groups called on
international bodies to intervene to halt the execution immediately.Soltani's
death sentence — which could be the first execution of this latest wave of
protests in Iran — comes as top Tehran officials further escalated their tone
toward protesters. Iran's top judge hinted at fast trials and executions for
those who were detained in nationwide protests against the country's theocracy,
even as activists said Wednesday that the death toll rose to levels unseen in
decades, with at least 2,572 people killed so far. Iran’s judiciary chief
Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei made the comments about trials and executions in a
video Tuesday, despite a warning from US President Donald Trump that he would
“take very strong action” if executions take place.
At least 3,428 killed in Iran crackdown on protesters:
Rights group
AFP, Paris/14 January/2026
Iranian security forces have killed at least 3,428 protesters in a crackdown on
demonstrations, the Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) NGO said on Wednesday,
adding that more than 10,000 people had also been arrested. IHR said the jump in
its verified toll was due to new information it received from within the Iranian
health and education ministries, with at least 3,379 of the killings coming
during the height of the protest movement from January 8 to 12. The group's
director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam condemned the “mass killing of protesters on
the streets in recent days,” while IHR warned that even the new figure
represented an “absolute minimum” for the actual toll.
Trump says has been notified
killings in Iran have 'stopped'
LBCI/14 January/2026
U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he had been told that
"executions" had stopped in Iran, amid reports by rights groups that Iranian
authorities were brutally suppressing protests against the government.During an
event at the White House, Trump said he had been told on "good authority" that
the "killing in Iran is stopping. It's stopped...and there's no plan for
executions," without providing further details. AFP
All eyes on the White House as Trump decision on Iran looms
Al Arabiya English/14 January/2026
US President Donald Trump has warned that Iran would be “hit hard” if protesters
are killed, putting renewed focus on what actions Washington may take as unrest
continues. With tensions escalating, attention is now firmly fixed on the White
House and the potential repercussions of Trump’s next move.
Trump’s national security team convened Tuesday morning to discuss the situation
in Iran and review the latest intelligence from the ground. A second meeting
with more senior officials is scheduled for 4 PM EST to further assess
developments. Trump did not attend the morning meeting, and the afternoon
session is expected to be chaired by Vice President JD Vance. While visiting
Michigan on Tuesday, Trump told reporters that they would “have to figure that
one out” when asked what kind of assistance the US might provide to Iran. In an
early afternoon post on his Truth Social platform, Trump urged Iranian
demonstrators to continue protesting and encouraged them to “TAKE OVER YOUR
INSTITUTIONS!!!” He added that help was on the way and said he had scrapped all
scheduled meetings with Iranian officials. Tehran had reached out to Washington
in recent days to reestablish lines of communication following Trump’s threats.
Trump previously said Iran was “in big trouble” after protests erupted and later
announced a 25 percent tariff on any country conducting business with Tehran. US
officials have emphasized that there have been no changes to US military force
posture in the Middle East, though discussions are ongoing to present the
president with a broad range of options. Among the key considerations is how to
help Iranians regain internet access after the government imposed a nationwide
shutdown. Elon Musk’s Starlink has been working to provide free internet
connectivity, despite efforts by the Iranian government and the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to block the service. Military strike options
are also being prepared for Trump’s review, though he has not yet decided
whether or when to pursue that course of action. In an interview with CBS News
on Tuesday, Trump said the United States would take “very strong action” if Iran
were to hang protesters. Reports suggest the Iranian regime is preparing to
execute at least one protester. The Iranian government and the IRGC have accused
demonstrators of being “terrorists” and said those found guilty would be
executed.
Iran committing mass unlawful
killings 'on unprecedented scale:' Amnesty International
LBCI/14 January/2026
Iranian authorities have committed mass unlawful killings "on an unprecedented
scale" in their crackdown on protesters, Amnesty International said on
Wednesday, citing verified video evidence and eyewitness reports. "Security
forces positioned on the streets and rooftops, including of residential
buildings, mosques and police stations, have repeatedly fired rifles and
shotguns loaded with metal pellets, targeting unarmed protesters frequently in
their heads and torsos," the UK-based group said in a statement. It denounced a
"coordinated nationwide escalation" in the security forces' use of lethal force
against protesters since January 8, when mass protests erupted and an internet
shutdown came into force. AFP
Iran temporarily closes
airspace to most flights
Reuters/January 15, 2026
WASHINGTON: Iran temporarily closed its airspace to all flights except
international ones to and from Iran with official permission at 5:15 p.m. ET on
Wednesday, according to a notice posted on the Federal Aviation Administration’s
website. The prohibition is set to last for more than two hours until 7:30 p.m.
ET, or 0030 GMT, but could be extended, the notice said. The United States was
withdrawing some personnel from bases in the Middle East, a US official said on
Wednesday, after a senior Iranian official said Tehran had warned neighbors it
would hit American bases if Washington strikes. Missile and drone barrages
in a growing number of conflict zones represent a high risk to airline traffic.
India’s largest airline, IndiGo said some of its international flights would be
impacted by Iran’s sudden airspace closure. A flight by Russia’s Aeroflot bound
for Tehran returned to Moscow after the closure, according to tracking data from
Flightradar24. Earlier on Wednesday, Germany issued a new directive cautioning
the country’s airlines from entering Iranian airspace, shortly after Lufthansa
rejigged its flight operations across the Middle East amid escalating tensions
in the region. The United States already prohibits all US commercial flights
from overflying Iran and there are no direct flights between the countries.
Airline operators like flydubai and Turkish Airlines have canceled multiple
flights to Iran in the past week. “Several airlines have already reduced or
suspended services, and most carriers are avoiding Iranian airspace,” said Safe
Airspace, a website run by OPSGROUP, a membership-based organization that
shares flight risk information. “The situation may signal further security or
military activity, including the risk of missile launches or heightened air
defense, increasing the risk of misidentification of civil traffic.” Lufthansa
said on Wednesday that it would bypass Iranian and Iraqi airspace until further
notice while it would only operate day flights to Tel Aviv and Amman from
Wednesday until Monday next week so that crew would not have to stay overnight.
Some flights could also be canceled as a result of these actions, it added in a
statement. Italian carrier ITA Airways, in which Lufthansa Group is now a major
shareholder, said that it would similarly suspend night flights to Tel Aviv
until Tuesday next week.
Iran warns neighbors it could hit US bases if Washington strikes
Al Arabiya English/14 January/2026
Tehran has warned neighbors hosting US troops that it would hit American bases
if Washington strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday, as
Iran seeks to deter Donald Trump’s threats to intervene on behalf of protesters.
Three diplomats said some personnel had been advised to leave the main US air
base in the region, although there were no immediate signs of a large-scale
evacuation of troops as took place in the hours before an Iranian missile attack
last year. Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in support of protesters
in Iran, where a rights group said 2,600 people have been killed in a crackdown
on one of the biggest ever waves of protest against clerical rule. According to
an Israeli assessment, Trump has decided to intervene, although the scope and
timing of this action remains unclear, an Israeli official said. The three
diplomats told Reuters that some personnel had been advised to leave the US
military’s al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar by Wednesday evening. One of the diplomats
described the move as a “posture change” rather than an “ordered evacuation.”
There was no sign of a large-scale movement of troops off the base to a nearby
soccer stadium and shopping mall, as took place last year in the hours before
Iran targeted the base with missiles in retaliation for US airstrikes on Iranian
nuclear targets. The US embassy in Doha had no immediate comment and Qatar’s
foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iranian
authorities have accused the United States and Israel of fomenting the unrest,
carried out by people it calls terrorists. Iran asks regional states to prevent
a US attack. Trump has been openly threatening to intervene in Iran for days,
though without giving specifics. In an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Trump
vowed “very strong action” if Iran executes protesters. “If they hang them,
you’re going to see some things,” he said. He also urged Iranians on Tuesday to
keep protesting and take over institutions, declaring “help is on the way.” The
Iranian official, a senior figure speaking on condition of anonymity, said
Tehran had asked US allies in the region to “prevent Washington from attacking
Iran.” “Tehran has told regional countries...that US bases in those countries
will be attacked if US targets Iran... asking these countries to prevent
Washington from attacking Iran,” the official told Reuters. The official added
that direct contacts between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had been suspended. The United States has forces
across the region including the forward headquarters of its Central Command at
Al Udeid in Qatar and the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
Western official: Crackdown has restored some calm
The flow of information from inside Iran has been hampered by an internet
blackout.
US-based HRANA rights group said it had so far verified the deaths of 2,403
protesters and 147 government-affiliated individuals. An Iranian official told
Reuters on Tuesday that about 2,000 people had been killed. French Foreign
Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said he suspected “this is the most violent
repression in Iran’s contemporary history and that it must absolutely stop.”A
Western official said it did not appear the Iranian government was facing
imminent collapse and its security apparatus remained in control. The crackdown
had restored some calm, though the authorities had been impacted, the official
added.
Rioting had taken place at a level unprecedented in recent times, catching the
government off guard at a time of particular vulnerability, the Western official
added. An Israeli government official said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
security cabinet was briefed late on Tuesday about the chances of regime
collapse or US intervention. Israel fought a 12-day war against its arch-foe
last year. Iranian state TV broadcast footage of large funeral processions for
people killed in the unrest in Tehran, Isfahan and Bushehr, and other cities.
People waved flags and pictures of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and held aloft
signs with anti-riot slogans. The head of Iran’s top security body, Ali
Larijani, had spoken to the foreign minister of Qatar and Araghchi had spoken to
his Emirati and Turkish counterparts, state media reported. Araghchi told UAE
Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed that “calm has prevailed” and
Iranians were determined to defend their sovereignty and security from any
foreign interference, state media reported.Iran’s chief justice urges swift
actions Visiting a Tehran prison where arrested protesters are being held,
Iran’s chief justice said speed in judging and penalizing those “who beheaded or
burned people” was critical to ensuring such events do not happen again.
HRANA reported 18,137 arrests so far.
Hengaw, an Iranian Kurdish rights group, has reported a 26-year-old man, Erfan
Soltani, arrested in connection with protests in the city of Karaj, was to be
executed on Wednesday. Hengaw told Reuters on Wednesday it had not been able to
confirm whether the sentence had been carried out. Reuters could not
independently confirm the report. While Iranian authorities have weathered
previous protests, the latest unrest is taking place with Tehran still
recovering from last year’s war, and with its regional position weakened by
blows to allies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led
attacks against Israel. Asked what he meant by “help is on its way,” Trump told
reporters on Tuesday they would have to figure that out. Trump has said military
action is among the options he is weighing. “The killing looks like it’s
significant, but we don’t know yet for certain,” said Trump upon returning to
the Washington area from Detroit, adding he would know more after receiving a
report on Tuesday evening. Trump on Monday announced 25 percent import tariffs
on products from any country doing business with Iran - a major oil exporter.The
US State Department on Tuesday urged American citizens to leave Iran now. With
Reuters
Iran vows fast trials over protests after Trump threat
AFP/January 14, 2026
PARIS: Iran on Wednesday vowed fast-track trials for people arrested over a
massive wave of protests, after US President Donald Trump threatened “very
strong action” if the Islamic republic goes ahead with hangings. In Tehran,
authorities held a funeral ceremony for over 100 members of the security forces
and other “martyrs” killed in the demonstrations, which authorities have branded
as “riots” while accusing protesters of waging “acts of terror.”The protest
movement across Iran, initially sparked by economic grievances, has turned into
one of the biggest challenges yet to the clerical leadership since it took power
in 1979. Demonstrators have defied the authorities’ zero-tolerance for dissent
by turning out in protests all around the country, even as authorities insist
they have regained the upper hand. Iran’s judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni
Ejei said on a visit to a prison holding protest detainees that “if a person
burned someone, beheaded someone and set them on fire then we must do our work
quickly,” in comments broadcast by state television. Iranian news agencies also
quoted him as saying the trials should be held in public and said he had spent
five hours in a prison in Tehran to examine the cases. Footage broadcast by
state media showed the judiciary chief seated before an Iranian flag in a large,
ornate room in the prison, interrogating a prisoner himself. The detainee,
dressed in grey clothing and his face blurred, is accused of taking Molotov
cocktails to a park in Tehran.
Blackout
Trump on Tuesday said in a CBS News interview that the United States would act
if Iran began hanging protesters. “We will take very strong action if they do
such a thing,” said the American leader, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with
military intervention. “When they start killing thousands of people — and now
you’re telling me about hanging. We’ll see how that’s going to work out for
them,” Trump said. Iranian authorities called the American warnings a “pretext
for military intervention.”Rights groups accuse the government of fatally
shooting protesters and masking the scale of the crackdown with an Internet
blackout imposed on January 8. Internet monitor Netblocks said in a post to X on
Wednesday that the blackout had now lasted 132 hours. Some information has
trickled out of Iran however. New videos on social media, with locations
verified by AFP, showed bodies lined up in the Kahrizak morgue just south of the
Iranian capital, with the corpses wrapped in black bags and distraught relatives
searching for loved ones.
Calls to halt executions
Iranian prosecutors have said authorities would press capital charges of “waging
war against God” on some detainees. According to state media, hundreds of people
have been arrested. State media has also reported on the arrest of a foreign
national for espionage in connection with the protests. No details were given on
the person’s nationality or identity. The US State Department on its Farsi
language X account said 26-year-old protester Erfan Soltani had been sentenced
to be executed on Wednesday. “Erfan is the first protester to be sentenced to
death, but he won’t be the last,” the State Department said, adding more than
10,600 Iranians had been arrested. Rights group Amnesty International called on
Iran to immediately halt all executions, including Soltani’s. Norway-based NGO
Iran Human Rights said it had confirmed 734 people killed during the protests,
including nine minors, but warned the death toll was likely far higher. “The
real number of those killed is likely in the thousands,” IHR’s director Mahmood
Amiry-Moghaddam said. Iranian state media has said dozens of members of the
security forces have been killed, with their funerals turning into large
pro-government rallies.
Khamenei in hiding
At Wednesday’s funeral ceremony in Tehran, thousands of people waved flags of
the Islamic republic as prayers were read out for the dead outside Tehran
University, according to images broadcast on state television. “Death to
America!” read banners held up by people attending the rally, while others
carried photos of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Another image could be
seen at the rally showing Trump’s assassination attempt, captioned: “This time
it will not miss the target.”It appeared to be referring to the assassination
attempt against Trump during a campaign rally in 2024. Amir, an Iraqi computer
scientist, returned to Baghdad from Iran on Monday and described dramatic scenes
in Tehran during protests on Thursday night. “My friends and I saw protesters in
Tehran’s Sarsabz neighborhood amid a heavy military presence. The police were
firing rubber bullets,” he told AFP in Iraq.
In power since 1989 and now aged 86, Khamenei has faced significant challenges,
most recently the 12-day war in June against Israel, which forced him to go into
hiding.Analysts have cautioned that it is premature to predict the immediate
demise of the theocratic system, pointing to the repressive levers the
leadership controls, including the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is charged
with safeguarding the Islamic revolution.
US opens air defense
operations cell in Qatar amid rising Iran tensions
Abeer Khan - Al Arabiya English/14 January/2026
The US announced the opening of a new center at Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air Base to
coordinate air and missile defense in the region, as US President Donald Trump
threatened intervention over protests in Iran. Seventeen countries are active at
the military facility in Qatar, according to a US Central Command (CENTCOM)
statement released on Tuesday. The new Middle Eastern Air Defense – Combined
Defense Operations Cell (MEAD-CDOC) located in the Combined Air Operations
Center (CAOC) includes personnel from the US and regional partners. “This is a
significant step forward in strengthening regional defense cooperation,” Admiral
Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, was quoted as saying. “This cell will improve
how regional forces coordinate and share air and missile defense
responsibilities across the Middle East,” he added. The US Air Force Central (AFCENT)
staff will work with regional partners to plan multinational exercises, conduct
drills, and respond to contingencies, CENTCOM added. On Tuesday, Iran’s
government accused the US of seeking to manufacture a pretext for military
intervention, after US President Donald Trump threatened “strong action” over
the deadly crackdown on mass protests.
“US fantasies and policy toward Iran are rooted in regime change, with
sanctions, threats, engineered unrest, and chaos serving as the modus operandi
to manufacture a pretext for military intervention,” Iran’s UN mission posted on
X, vowing that Washington’s “playbook” would “fail again.”Qatar is the only
country in the region to have been attacked by both Israel and Iran. Meanwhile,
Doha and Tehran share the world’s largest natural gas field and have maintained
cordial ties. The opening of MEAD-CDOC follows the opening of two bilateral
posts for US Army Central air and missile defense with Qatar and Bahrain last
year.
US begins withdrawing personnel from Qatar’s Al-Udeid as Iran tensions rise
Al Arabiya English/14 January/2026
The US military has begun withdrawing some personnel from Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air
Base, US officials said Wednesday, a move underscoring heightened concerns over
a potential military clash with Iran. A senior Iranian official told Reuters
that Tehran had warned neighbors hosting US troops that it would hit American
bases if Washington strikes. The State Department also advised US citizens to
exercise “increased caution and limit non-essential travel to any military
installations in the region.”United States Central Command (CENTCOM) declined to
comment. Qatar’s International Media Office issued a statement regarding news of
the departure of certain personnel from al-Udeid Air Base. “The IMO states that
such measures are being undertaken in response to the current regional
tensions,” it said in the statement posted on X. “The IMO reaffirms that the
State of Qatar continues to implement all necessary measures to safeguard the
security and safety of its citizens and residents as a top priority, including
actions related to the protection of critical infrastructure and military
facilities.” Al-Udeid is the Middle East’s largest US base, housing around
10,000 troops. “It’s a posture change and not an ordered evacuation,” a
diplomat told Reuters. The diplomat said he was not aware that a specific
reason had been given for the posture change.Last year, more than a week before
the US launched air strikes on Iran, some personnel and families were moved off
US bases in the Middle East. After the US attacks in June, Iran launched a
missile attack on the base in Qatar.With Reuters
Saudi Arabia tells Iran its land, airspace won’t be used in strike: Sources
AFP, Riyadh/14 January/2026
Saudi Arabia informed Iran it will not allow its airspace or territory to be
used to attack it, two sources close to the Kingdom’s government told AFP on
Wednesday, as Washington threatens Tehran with possible military strikes. The
message was conveyed as the United States warned it could respond to an Iranian
government crackdown on protests, while Tehran has said it would strike US
military and shipping assets in the event of a new attack. “Saudi Arabia has
informed Tehran directly that it will not be part of any military action taken
against it, and that its territory and airspace will not be used for that
purpose,” a source close to the Saudi military told AFP. A second source close
to the government confirmed that message had been communicated to Tehran. The US
has military assets in the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh calls for dialogue amid boiling US-Iran tensions: Senior Saudi diplomat
Al Arabiya English/15 January/2026
One of Saudi Arabia’s top diplomats said Wednesday that Riyadh continues to push
for dialogue and peaceful solutions amid the growing risk of military escalation
between the US and Iran. “We believe in dialogue, and we believe in solving any
disagreements at the negotiating table,” Saudi Minister of State for Foreign
Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said. Al-Jubeir’s remarks come as Washington and Tehran
trade threats following Donald Trump’s vow to “hit” Iran hard over its violent
crackdown on nationwide protests.Speaking at the Future Minerals Forum in
Riyadh, al-Jubeir stressed that the Kingdom believes that instability does not
support the prospects for development in any region. “We hope that issues can be
resolved in that manner.”When pressed on the possibility of the Iranian regime’s
collapse and what might follow, al-Jubeir offered a pointed response. “It is
really up to the Iranian people to decide. I don't think that I'm in a position
to tell another country how it should be governed,” he said, adding that Saudi
Arabia and the entire world were watching the situation very closely.
Poland tells its citizens to leave Iran immediately
Reuters/14 January/2026
Polish citizens should leave Iran immediately, the Polish foreign ministry
said on Wednesday. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges the immediate
departure from Iran and advises against all travel to this country,” it said
in a post on X. Separately on Wednesday, Italy has strongly renewed an appeal
to its citizens to leave Iran because of the security situation in the
country, the foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. There are
around 600 Italians in Iran, most of them in the Tehran area, it added.
US expected to unveil post-war Gaza leadership, sources say
Reuters/14 January/2026
US President Donald Trump is expected on Wednesday to push ahead with his phased
plan for Gaza’s future by announcing the administration that will run the
war-ravaged Palestinian territory, four Palestinian sources said. Israel and
Hamas in October signed off on Trump’s 20-point plan which says that a
technocratic Palestinian body overseen by an international “Board of Peace” is
meant to govern Gaza for a transitional period. It is not to include Hamas
representation. The 14-member Palestinian body will be headed by Ali Shaath, a
former deputy minister in the Western-backed Palestinian Authority who had been
in charge of developing industrial zones, the Palestinian sources said. Other
members tapped by Nickolay Mladenov, the former UN Middle East envoy who is
expected to represent the Board of Peace on the ground, include people from the
private sector and NGOS, according a list of the names obtained by Reuters.
Trump moving to phase two of Gaza plan despite issues
The first phase of Trump’s plan, which included a ceasefire and hostage release
deal, has been shaken by issues including Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that have
killed hundreds of people, a refusal by Hamas to disarm, the remains of one
last Israeli hostage still not having been returned and Israeli delays in
reopening Gaza’s Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Although the two sides
accuse each other of breaching the deal, Trump says he wants to move on to the
second phase, a progression that would entail the establishment of the Board of
Peace and a yet-to-be-agreed deployment of peacekeeping forces. Hamas leaders
and other Palestinian factions are in Cairo for talks on the second phase, the
group said. Egyptian sources said talks with Hamas would now focus on the
group’s disarmament. Hamas has so far not agreed to lay down its weapons, saying
it will only give up its weapons once there is a Palestinian state. Further
Israeli withdrawals within Gaza are tied to disarmament. Members of the
technocratic Palestinian committee were expected to meet with Mladenov in Cairo
on Wednesday. Hamas and its rival Fatah group, led by Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas, have both endorsed the list of members, Egyptian and Palestinian
sources said. It will also include the head of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce Ayed
Abu Ramadan and Omar Shamali, who has worked for the Palestinian
Telecommunication Group PALTEL, the Palestinian sources said.
Israeli officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Egypt says all parties agree on Gaza technocratic committee members
AFP, Cairo/14 January/2026
Egypt said Wednesday that all the members of a 15-person Palestinian
technocratic committee meant to administer post-war Gaza had been agreed upon by
all Palestinian factions, who swiftly offered their support. Under a 20-point
Gaza truce plan brokered by US President Donald Trump in October, the
Palestinian territory would be governed by the committee operating under the
supervision of a so-called “Board of Peace,” to be chaired by Trump himself.
Hamas officials said earlier in the day that the group had opened talks with
Egyptian mediators in Cairo on the committee, which forms part of Trump's truce
plan for Gaza. “We hope that following this agreement, the committee will be
announced soon... and will then be deployed to the Gaza Strip to manage daily
life and essential services,” Abdelatty said. The majority of the Palestinian
factions offered their support to the committee after Abdelatty's announcement.
In a statement, the factions including Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they had
agreed “to support the mediators' efforts in forming the Palestinian National
Transitional Committee to administer the Gaza Strip, while providing the
appropriate environment” for it to begin its work. The Ramallah-based
Palestinian presidency also announced its support in official media, with a
source from the office telling AFP the statement “reflects the position of the
Fatah movement because President (Mahmoud) Abbas is also the head of Fatah.”The
Cairo meeting aimed to address the formation of the committee and its
operational mechanisms, a senior Hamas official had previously told AFP on
condition of anonymity.
Potential committee heads
Separately, the Hamas delegation was also to hold talks in Cairo with leaders of
other Palestinian factions on “political, national and field developments” and
the state of the Gaza ceasefire, the official added. Hamas has repeatedly said
it does not seek a role in any future governing authority in the Palestinian
territory, and would limit its role to monitoring governance to ensure stability
and facilitate reconstruction. Talks with Egyptian mediators were also focused
on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the reopening of the Rafah
crossing, the entry of aid currently stockpiled on the Egyptian side of the
border, and preparations for launching the second phase of the ceasefire plan,
the official said. Abdelatty did not name any of the agreed-upon committee
members. But two names circulating as potential heads were Ali Shaath, a former
deputy minister of planning in the Palestinian Authority, and Majed Abu Ramadan,
the current minister of health, the second official said. The Trump proposed
Board of Peace is expected to be led on the ground by Bulgarian diplomat and
politician Nickolay Mladenov, who has recently held talks with Israeli and
Palestinian officials. Mladenov previously served as the United Nations envoy
for the Middle East peace process from early 2015 until the end of 2020. Media
reports say Trump is expected to announce the members of the Board of Peace in
the coming days, with the body set to include around 15 world leaders.
Israel army says killed six
Gaza militants despite ceasefire
AFP/January 14, 2026
JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said Wednesday it had killed six militants in an
updated toll from an exchange of fire in Gaza the day before, accusing them of
violating the ceasefire in the territory. The military said in a statement late
on Tuesday that it had killed two of six militants it had identified adjacent to
its troops in western Rafah and that tanks had fired on them. It said they were
killed in an ensuing exchange of fire, including aerial strikes, while troops
continued to search for the rest. In a statement on Wednesday, the military said
that “following searches that were conducted in the area, it is now confirmed
that troops eliminated the six terrorists during the exchange of fire.” It said
the presence of the militants adjacent to troops and the subsequent incident
were a “blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement.”A security source in Gaza
reported late on Tuesday that Israeli forces had “opened fire west of Rafah
city.” Under a truce that entered into force in October following two years of
war between Israel and Hamas, Israeli forces in Gaza withdrew to positions
behind a demarcation known as the “yellow line.”The city of Rafah is located
behind the yellow line, under Israeli army control. The area beyond the yellow
line remains under Hamas authority. Both sides have repeatedly accused the other
of violating the ceasefire. According to the health ministry in Gaza, which
operates under Hamas authority, at least 165 children have been killed in
Israeli attacks since the ceasefire began on October 10.The UN children’s agency
UNICEF said on Tuesday that at least 100 children — 60 boys and 40 girls — had
been killed since the truce. Israeli forces have killed a total of at least 447
Palestinians in Gaza since the ceasefire took effect, according to the
ministry.The Israeli army says militants have killed three of its soldiers
during the same period.
US announces launch of phase two of Gaza plan, says Witkoff
Reuters/14 January/2026
President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff on Wednesday announced the
establishment of a technocratic Palestinian body that will play a role in
administering the war-ravaged territory under a phased US plan for Gaza’s
future. “Today, on behalf of President Trump, we are announcing the launch of
Phase Two of the President’s 20-Point Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, moving from
ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction,”
Witkoff said in a post on X.It remains unclear how Hamas, which has regrouped
since a fragile ceasefire began in October, will be disarmed as required by the
plan. Israel and Hamas signed off in October on Trump’s plan, which says that
the technocratic body will be overseen by the international “Board of Peace”
that is meant to govern Gaza for a transitional period. The 15-member
Palestinian body launched on Wednesday will be headed by Ali Shaath, a former
deputy minister in the Western-backed Palestinian Authority who had been in
charge of developing industrial zones, according to a joint statement by
mediators Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. Other members tapped by Nickolay Mladenov,
the former UN Middle East envoy who is expected to represent the Board of Peace
on the ground, include people from the private sector and NGOs, according to a
list of the names obtained by Reuters. Witkoff did not say how many members the
body would include or name them. Another announcement related to the Board of
Peace was also expected to be made at Davos next week, a European diplomat said.
Demilitarization challenge Along with setting up the Palestinian body, known as
the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), Witkoff said in
his post that phase two of Trump’s plan “begins the full demilitarization and
reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized
personnel.”“The US expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including
the immediate return of the final deceased hostage. Failure to do so will bring
serious consequences,” Witkoff added. Hamas, which has so far not agreed to lay
down its weapons, agreed in October to hand over governance to a technocratic
committee. But it has previously said that other matters, including the future
of Gaza and Palestinian rights, should be addressed within “an inclusive
Palestinian national framework, of which we will be an integral part and to
which we will contribute with full responsibility.”In the West Bank, the
Palestinian Authority welcomed Trump’s effort to move ahead with the Gaza
phased plan, in a statement posted on X by Palestinian Vice President Hussein
Al-Sheikh, and voiced support for the committee. Sheikh said institutions in
Gaza should be linked to those run by the PA in the West Bank, “upholding the
principle of one system, one law, and one legitimate weapon.”
Trump moves to phase two despite violence, delays
The first phase of Trump’s plan, which included a ceasefire and hostage release
deal, has been shaken by issues including Israeli airstrikes in Gaza that have
killed hundreds of people, a refusal by Hamas to disarm, the remains of one
last Israeli hostage still not having been returned and Israeli delays in
reopening Gaza’s Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Although the two sides accuse
each other of breaching the deal, Trump says he wants to move on to the second
phase, a progression that would entail the establishment of the Board of Peace
and a yet-to-be-agreed deployment of peacekeeping forces. Hamas leaders and
other Palestinian factions are in Cairo for talks on the second phase, the group
said, where members of the technocratic Palestinian committee were expected to
meet with Mladenov. Egyptian sources said talks with Hamas would now focus on
the group’s disarmament.Further Israeli withdrawals within Gaza are tied to
disarmament, though Hamas says it will only give up its weapons once there is a
Palestinian state. Hamas and its rival Fatah group, led by Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas, have both endorsed the list of members, Egyptian and Palestinian
sources said. It will also include the head of the Gaza Chamber of Commerce,
Ayed Abu Ramadan, and Omar Shamali, who has worked for the Palestinian
Telecommunication Group PALTEL, Palestinian sources said.
Syrian army and Kurdish forces
exchange strikes east of Aleppo
AP/January 14, 2026
ALEPPO: Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces
exchanged fire Tuesday in a tense area of eastern Aleppo province, marking a
possible escalation after days of clashes in the northern city. No casualties
were immediately reported, as an impasse continues in negotiations between the
central government and the SDF over merging its thousands of fighters into the
national army. The Syrian army earlier declared an area east of Aleppo as a
“closed military zone.” Eastern Aleppo province has been a tense frontline
dividing areas under the Syrian government and large swaths of northeastern
Syria under the SDF. In a statement, the SDF said government forces have started
shelling Deir Hafer district. The group later said government troops launched
exploding drones, artillery and rockets to a village south of Deir Hafer.Syrian
state television later said the SDF targeted the village of Homeima on the other
side of the Deir Hafer frontline with exploding drones. Several days of deadly
clashes in Aleppo last week displaced tens of thousands of people. They ended
over the weekend with the evacuation of Kurdish fighters from the contested
neighborhood of Sheikh Maqsoud. Aleppo Governor Azzam Ghareeb said Damascus now
has full control of Sheikh Maqsoud and Achrafieh, where clashes took place.
Syrian officials have accused the SDF of building up its forces near the towns
of Maskana and Deir Hafer, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) east of Aleppo city.
SANA, the state news agency, reported that the army had declared the area a
closed military zone because of “continued mobilization” by the SDF, and accused
the group of using the area as a launchpad for drone attacks in Aleppo city. The
army statement said the armed groups should withdraw east of the Euphrates
River. A drone hit the Aleppo governorate building on Saturday shortly after two
Cabinet ministers and a local official held a news conference on the
developments in the city. The SDF have denied mobilizing in the area or being
behind the attack. The leadership in Damascus, under interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa,
signed a deal in March with the SDF, which controls much of the northeast, for
it to merge with the Syrian army by the end of 2025. There have been
disagreements on how it would happen. Some of the factions that make up the new
Syrian army, which was formed after the fall of former President Bashar Assad in
a rebel offensive in December 2024, were previously Turkiye-backed insurgent
groups that have a long history of clashing with Kurdish forces. The SDF for
years has been the main US partner in Syria in fighting against the Daesh group,
but Turkiye considers the SDF a terrorist organization because of its
association with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a
long-running insurgency in Turkiye. A peace process is now underway. Despite the
long-running US support for the SDF, the Trump administration has also developed
close ties with Al-Sharaa’s government and has pushed the Kurds to implement the
March deal. The recent developments have left the SDF and the autonomous
administration that runs northeastern Syria frustrated with Washington and
accusing Damascus of not implementing its end of the deal. “The American
government needs to clarify its position of the Syrian government which is
committing massacres,” the administration’s foreign relations official, Elham
Ahmad, told journalists Tuesday. She accused government forces of committing
“horrific violations” and alleged that forces affiliated with IS and foreign
fighters took part in the clashes. Shams TV, a broadcaster based in Irbil — the
seat of northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region — had been set to air an
interview with Al-Sharaa on Monday but later announced it had been postponed for
“technical” reasons, without giving a new date for broadcast.
Syria moves military reinforcements east of Aleppo after
telling Kurds to withdraw
Al Arabiya English/14 January/2026
Syria’s army was moving reinforcements east of Aleppo city on Wednesday, a day
after it told Kurdish forces to withdraw from the area following deadly clashes
last week. The deployment comes as the Syrian government seeks to extend its
authority across the country, but progress has stalled on integrating the Kurds’
de facto autonomous administration and forces into the central government under
a deal reached in March. The United States, which for years has supported
Kurdish fighters but also backs Syria’s new authorities, urged all parties to
“avoid actions that could further escalate tensions” in a statement by the US
military’s Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper. On Tuesday, Syrian state
television published an army statement with a map declaring a large area east of
Aleppo city a “closed military zone” and said “all armed groups in this area
must withdraw to east of the Euphrates” River. The area, controlled by Kurdish
forces, extends from near Deir Hafer, around 50 kilometers (30 miles) from
Aleppo, to the Euphrates about 30 kilometers further east, as well as towards
the south. State news agency SANA published images on Wednesday showing military
reinforcements en route from the coastal province of Latakia, while a military
source on the ground, requesting anonymity, said reinforcements were arriving
from both Latakia and the Damascus region. Both sides reported limited
skirmishes overnight. An AFP correspondent on the outskirts of Deir Hafer
reported hearing intermittent artillery shelling on Wednesday, which the
military source said was due to government targeting of positions belonging to
the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
‘Declaration of war’
The SDF controls swathes of the country’s oil-rich north and northeast, much of
which it captured during Syria’s civil war and the fight against ISIS. .On
Monday, Syria accused the SDF of sending reinforcements to Deir Hafer and said
it would send its own personnel there in response. Kurdish forces on Tuesday
denied any build-up of their personnel and accused the government of attacking
the town, while state television said SDF sniper fire there killed one person.
Cooper urged “a durable diplomatic resolution through dialogue.”Elham Ahmad, a
senior official in the Kurdish administration, said that government forces were
“preparing themselves for another attack.”“The real intention is a full-scale
attack” against Kurdish-held areas, she told an online press conference,
accusing the government of having made a “declaration of war” and breaking the
March agreement on integrating Kurdish forces. Syria’s government took full
control of Aleppo city over the weekend after capturing its Kurdish-majority
Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh neighborhoods and evacuating fighters there to
Kurdish-controlled areas in the northeast. Both sides traded blame over who
started the violence last week that killed dozens of people and displaced tens
of thousands.
PKK, Turkey
Turkey has long been hostile to the SDF, seeing it as an extension of the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and a major threat along its southern border.
Last year, the PKK announced an end to its long-running armed struggle against
the Turkish state and began destroying its weapons, but Ankara has insisted that
the move include armed Kurdish groups in Syria. On Tuesday, the PKK called the
“attack on the Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo” an attempt to sabotage peace
efforts between it and Ankara. A day earlier, Ankara’s ruling party leveled the
same accusation against Kurdish fighters. Aleppo civil defense official Faysal
Mohammad said Tuesday that 50 bodies had been recovered from the
Kurdish-majority neighborhoods after the fighting. With AFP
Trump has clear wish of ‘conquering’ Greenland: Danish
minister after talks
AFP, Washington/14 January/2026
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen on Wednesday emerged from White
House talks vowing to push back against US President Donald Trump’s plan to take
control of Greenland. It is “absolutely not necessary” for the United States to
seize Greenland, Lokke said. “We didn’t manage to change the American position.
It’s clear that the president has this wish of conquering Greenland. And we made
it very, very clear that this is not in the interest of the kingdom.”Lokke urged
Washington to engage in “respectful” cooperation over the Arctic island that is
controlled by Copenhagen.
US suspends immigrant visa processing for 75 countries
AFP/14 January/2026
The United States said Wednesday it was suspending the processing of immigrant
visas from 75 countries, President Donald Trump’s latest move against foreigners
seeking to come to America. The United States has long rejected visas from
people who appear likely to end up needing government welfare, but the State
Department said it would now use the same authority for a blanket suspension of
immigrant visas based on nationality. “The Trump administration is bringing an
end to the abuse of America’s immigration system by those who would extract
wealth from the American people,” State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said.
“Immigrant visa processing from these 75 countries will be paused while the
State Department reassesses immigration processing procedures to prevent the
entry of foreign nationals who would take welfare and public benefits,” he said.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X that the countries
affected would include Somalia - whose people Trump has attacked in heated terms
after immigrants were involved in a funding scandal in Minnesota - as well as
Russia and Iran. A US official said that the other countries affected would
include a number of countries with friendly relations with the United States,
including Brazil, Egypt and Thailand. Other countries to face the pause include
Nigeria - Africa’s most populous country - as well as Iraq and Yemen, the
official said. The State Department did not immediately release a full list of
countries. The freeze will begin on January 21 with no set time for it to end,
the US official, who was not authorized to speak to the press, said on condition
of anonymity. Trump has made no secret of his desire to reduce immigration by
people who are not of European descent. He has described Somalis as “garbage”
who should “go back to where they came from” and instead said he was open to
Scandinavians moving to the United States. The State Department said Monday that
it has revoked more than 100,000 visas since Trump’s return, a one-year record.
The Department of Homeland Security last month said that the Trump
administration has deported more than 605,000 people, and that 2.5 million
others left on their own. The latest move does not affect tourist, business or
other visas, including for soccer fans seeking to visit for this year’s World
Cup, although the Trump administration has vowed to vet all applicants’ social
media histories.
Saudi Arabia welcomes US labeling Muslim Brotherhood
branches as terrorist organizations
Al Arabiya English/14 January/2026
Saudi Arabia on Wednesday welcomed the decision by the United States to label
three Middle Eastern branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist
organizations. “The Foreign Ministry of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia welcomes the
classification by the United States of America of the branches of the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon as terrorist groups,” the Saudi foreign
ministry said in a statement.The statement further reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s
condemnation of extremism and terrorism, underlining its support for all those
aiding to establish stability and prosperity in the Arab world, the region and
the rest of the world. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump had labeled the
Egyptian, Jordanian and Lebanese branches of the Muslim Brotherhood terrorist
organizations. The organization was founded in Egypt in 1928 and spread through
various parts of the world in the coming decades. It was banned in Egypt in
2013.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on January
14-15/2026
Tehran Regime Kills Thousands, Crossing Trump’s Red Line
Janatan Sayeh & Bridget Toomey/FDD..Policy Brief/January 14/ 2026
“We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” President Donald Trump told the
people of Iran, pledging “the United States of America will come to their
rescue” if the clerical regime in Tehran guns down peaceful protesters. Now
there is blood in the streets and Trump will have to decide how to make good on
his promise. The regime’s security forces reportedly killed over 12,000 unarmed
protestors in just two days, January 8 and 9, carrying out the most brutal
crackdown in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Responding to the
regime’s violence, Trump posted on January 13 that he has canceled meetings with
regime officials and that “help is on its way.”
An Unprecedented Level of Violence
What began on December 28 as inflation-driven protests in downtown Tehran has
become the most sustained and geographically expansive anti-regime protest
movement in the Islamic Republic’s history, with at least 574 protest locations
across 185 cities in all 31 Iranian provinces.
The horrific death count estimates follow numerous videos that depict armed
personnel opening fire on protestors, including children, using shotguns and
automatic weapons. Treating unarmed civilians as enemy forces, the regime
deployed terrorist proxies to crush the protests, bringing in over 800 Iraqi
Shiite fighters and Hezbollah operatives, primarily from U.S.-designated Foreign
Terrorist Organizations. This ruthless suppression occurred amid a total
internet shutdown, rather than the partial throttling tactics that limited
communication during the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom movement and earlier
protests. The regime paired this digital blackout with targeted electricity
outages and landline disruptions. The regime is also promising severe punishment
to come for demonstrators. The head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei,
declared no “leniency or tolerance” would be shown, promising expedited
prosecutions while praising the brutality of the armed forces. The judiciary has
also declared that all “rioters” would be tried for moharebeh(enmity against
God), a capital offense which the regime often uses to execute political
activists.
U.S. Confrontations With Regime Have Not Led Iranians To Rally to Its Defense
There is a misconception that if the United States and other Western powers seek
to punish the clerical regime for its oppression, the Iranian people will rally
in support of their oppressors. This fallacy ignores the protestors requests for
Trump to intervene as well as the experience of the 12-Day War last June, when
the people recognized U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on regime targets as attacks
on a common enemy. Those who ignore the clear preferences of the Iranian people
also insisted that war might be imminent following the 2020 U.S. killing of
Qassem Soleimani, the mastermind behind Iran’s terror network. No war ensued.
During the current protests, Iranians have destroyed statues of Soleimani,
rejecting the regime-imposed narrative that he was a martyr of American
aggression. After years of being murdered for demanding regime change from the
street, Iranians have shown the world beyond a shadow of a doubt that theirs is
an authentic, indigenous, and committed movement.
It’s Time for Washington To Deliver on Assurances of Support
The unprecedented momentum in Iran needs and deserves support. An American
response does not require boots on the ground, but it should squeeze the
clerical regime on every front. The Trump administration has already promised a
25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran and has allegedly
conducted cyber-attacks on at least one regime mouthpiece. These should only be
first steps. Washington should also seize tankers exporting oil illicitly, thus
hitting the regime in the pocketbook. It should also find way to provide
Iranians with access to the internet and communications after nearly a week–long
blackout. European countries should also step up to the plate. They must move
past simply issuing condemnations and terminate diplomatic relations with Iran
and designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) as a terrorist
organization for its direct role in crackdowns. The isolation of Tehran’s
criminal regime should be unremitting.
**Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic
Republic’s regional malign influence. Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at
FDD, where she focuses on Iranian proxies. For more analysis from Janatan,
Bridget, and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh and
Bridget @BridgetKToomey. Follow FDD on X @FDDand @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, non-partisan research institute focused on national security and
foreign policy.
Iran’s Islamic rulers are teetering on collapse. Trump must give them a final
shove.
Mark Dubowitz/Daily Mail/January
14/2026
For years, policymakers and analysts have obsessed over how the Islamic Republic
of Iran might fall. Far less attention has been paid to the more important
question: whether it should. To many of the several million Iranians who have
fled their homeland since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the answer is obvious —
and deeply personal. Before the mullahs seized power, Iran was a modern, secular
state. Women enjoyed far greater political and social freedom. Western culture
was welcomed, not criminalised. Oil wealth fuelled economic growth instead of
terror abroad. By any honest measure, what replaced that Iran has been an
unmitigated failure. For some, the case against the regime is moral. Iran’s Shia
theocracy enforces a medieval interpretation of Islamic law, brutalises women,
executes dissidents, and rules through fear. It seeks to export its extremist
ideology far beyond its borders. That alone makes it a threat to all
freedom-loving people. But the most compelling argument is strategic — and it
aligns squarely with the principles of America First.
The Islamic Republic is not merely a repressive domestic dictatorship, now
widely suspected of killing thousands of demonstrators during the largest
popular uprisings since the regime’s founding. It is the world’s most aggressive
state sponsor of terrorism — the central node of a proxy empire stretching from
Yemen to Lebanon, and from Gaza to Venezuela. Over four decades, the regime and
its proxies have killed and maimed thousands of Americans, from Beirut to Iraq
and beyond, making Iran one of the most lethal adversaries the United States has
faced since World War II. Even today, Tehran is threatening renewed militia
attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, reconstituting its nuclear weapons
program and building a massive missile arsenal — including an expanding
intercontinental ballistic missile capability that threatens the American
homeland, Israel, U.S. forces, and key regional allies — while supplying Russia
with Iranian-made drones to fuel Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.These are not
isolated acts. They are components of a single, coherent Iranian strategy: to
bleed American power, destabilise U.S. allies, and reshape the regional order in
Iran’s favour. As long as the mullahs rule in Tehran, the United States remains
under constant threat.No diplomatic agreement has changed this reality.
Sanctions relief did not moderate the regime’s behaviour. Engagement did not
empower reformers. On the contrary, every outreach to Tehran strengthened the
Revolutionary Guard and expanded Iran’s external aggression.
After four decades, the lesson is unmistakable: the problem is not Iran’s
policies. It is Iran’s regime. Critics warn that calling for the end of the
Islamic Republic risks chaos or a nationalist backlash that could prop up a
wobbling government. This fear rests on outdated assumptions.For almost two
decades — since 2009 — Iranians have flooded the streets, chanting ‘Death to the
dictator’ and ‘Our enemy is right here.’ A majority have rejected clerical rule
that has delivered only economic collapse, repression, and international
isolation. The mullahs remain in power through violence, censorship, and fear —
not popular consent. Supporting the Iranian people is not about imposing a
Western system or engineering a revolution. It is about aligning American policy
with the clear aspirations of a population that overwhelmingly rejects
theocracy. Importantly, Iran’s democratic opposition abroad has spent years
developing a detailed, credible plan for the day after the regime’s fall —
addressing governance, economic recovery, and relations with the outside world —
undercutting claims that collapse would mean chaos. What would come after the
mullahs? No one should pretend the transition would be easy. But the choice is
not between a perfect democracy and the status quo. It is between a collapsing
theocracy that exports terror — and a post-Islamic Republic Iran that, at
minimum, no longer wages permanent war against its neighbours and the United
States.A post-regime Iran would not need to become a Jeffersonian democracy to
represent a dramatic strategic improvement. A government more accountable to its
people would have powerful incentives to rebuild an economy shattered by
corruption and sanctions — and to redirect resources from foreign militias to
domestic needs.
For the first time in decades, regional de-escalation would become possible.
Until recently, Hezbollah’s arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets threatened
Israel, Hamas’s war machine hung over Israel like a sword, and Houthi terrorists
endangered global shipping lanes. A combined U.S.–Israeli response after October
7 severely degraded these threats. The world is safer for it — but only
temporarily. Given time and space, Iran’s proxies will rebuild.
The United States does not need to invade Iran to end this menace. But it must
abandon the illusion that the Islamic Republic can be reformed or indefinitely
managed. A strategy of targeted military and cyber strikes, maximum financial
pressure, diplomatic isolation, information support for the Iranian people, and
clear political alignment with their demands for change is not reckless. It is
overdue.Ending the Islamic Republic is not about revenge or ideology. It is
about removing the single greatest driver of instability, terrorism, and nuclear
risk in the Middle East. The truth is uncomfortable but unavoidable: as long as
the mullahs rule in Tehran, the Middle East will remain a factory for terror,
missiles, and nuclear blackmail. Every delay buys the regime time. Every
illusion of reform prolongs the danger. The Islamic Republic has spent 45 years
declaring war on the United States and its allies — and it has never meant
peace. History will not judge America by how carefully it managed this regime,
but by whether it finally had the resolve to end it. The moment is coming. The
only question left is whether Washington has the courage to act before the next
catastrophe forces its hand.
**Mark Dubowitz is the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies
Canada eyes stronger ties
with Saudi Arabia in 2026
Lama Alhamawi/Arab News/January 14, 2026
RIYADH: On the sidelines of OpenText’s regional headquarters opening in Riyadh,
Canada’s Minister of International Trade Maninder Sidhu told Arab News that
Saudi-Canadian cooperation will “speed up” under Prime Minister Mark Carney’s
new government. “You are going to see a quick speeding up of this relationship
in 2026,” Sidhu said. “This was my first visit to the region, and I did that on
purpose because this region plays a vital role to Canada. This is about
friendship and, of course, allyship,” he added. During the visit, Sidhu will
hold meetings in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE with a Canadian senior-level
business delegation. When asked about the primary goal of the visit to the
Kingdom, he said: “Well, for this visit, I think it is about connectivity —
making sure conversations happen between the Saudi ecosystem, Saudi businesses,
and Canadian businesses. “But of course, government-to-government is very
important to establish initiatives that enable more businesses.”The minister
noted that two-way trade between Saudi Arabia and Canada currently stands at $4
billion, with room to grow.“Right now, I am focused on opening doors for
businesses on both sides, but also to show collaboration. You are seeing a lot
more coming. Companies set up their regional hubs here to create economic
opportunities.”During his visit, Sidhu met with Saudi Minister of Investment
Khalid Al-Falih to discuss advancing Saudi-Canadian industry and investment
partnerships and supporting both countries’ trade diversification efforts.
In November 2025, a high-level Saudi delegation led by Al-Falih visited Ottawa,
during which both sides announced the reactivation of the Joint Economic
Commission. More than 150 Canadian companies are currently active in the
Kingdom, in sectors such as artificial intelligence, mining, creative economy,
healthcare, and defense. Sidhu aims to use his visit to further
business-to-business cooperation, both in the Kingdom and in Canada. “We are
also welcoming Saudi companies to come to Canada because the physical distance
between our two nations is very wide, and we serve different regions,” Sidhu
said.
“And so there is a lot of complementary opportunities that we should be looking
at. In Canada, we have 15 trade agreements with 51 countries. We welcome Saudi
companies to set up there, just as OpenText has done in the region, to continue
collaborating.”During the interview, the minister also highlighted mining as a
key area of cooperation and said he hopes to further develop it. Sidhu noted
that more than 100 Canadian companies are participating in the Future Minerals
Forum, running until Jan. 15 in Riyadh. The minister also said that defense
cooperation will expand, noting that while 40 Canadian companies participated in
2025, this year’s World Defense Show will welcome 80. Sidhu also met with
Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Al-Swaha to
discuss strengthening bilateral partnerships in AI, innovation, and advanced
technologies, supporting Saudi Arabia’s goal to become a global hub for AI and
the digital economy.Closing the interview, Sidhu noted the many similarities
between the two countries: “We (Saudi Arabia and Canada) are roughly 40 million
people, and we have a lot of alignment in education, healthcare, and tourism.”
Trump’s transactionalism
creates narrow opening for Palestinians
Hady Amr/Arab News/January 14, 2026
With talk that US President Donald Trump is set to launch the Gaza “Board of
Peace” imminently, and names on the Gaza technocratic committee becoming public,
this is an important moment to consider what Americans, Palestinians and key
players in the region can do to improve both the catastrophic situation on the
ground and the medium-term prospects for progress toward freedom, security and
prosperity for all. The devastation in Gaza and the killing of tens of thousands
of Palestinians, combined with the erosion of Palestinian political legitimacy,
have reinforced a belief on all sides that US-Palestinian diplomacy has little
constructive role left to play. Beyond the immense human toll, Gaza’s
destruction has hollowed out Palestinian institutions, deepened fragmentation
and reduced international engagement to crisis management. Yet a paradox is
emerging. Trump’s unconventional, transactional approach to the Middle East,
often dismissed as chaotic or indifferent to long-term outcomes, has created a
narrow but real opening for renewed US-Palestinian engagement around a pragmatic
agenda. Whether this opening leads to progress or closes quickly will depend
less on lofty principles and more on political agility, credible proposals,
regional alignment and overdue Palestinian political renewal, all under the hard
constraint of Israeli politics. Trump’s foreign policy is neither ideological
nor institutional. It is centralized, personality-driven and oriented toward
visible, near-term wins. Traditional diplomatic reference points like the Oslo
Accords, UN resolutions or even two-state parameters carry little weight unless
they serve immediate political or strategic utility. Decision-making is
concentrated among a small circle and shaped by domestic incentives and legacy
considerations rather than process. This generates unpredictability but it also
creates openings. Actors able to move quickly, speak Trump’s language and offer
concrete, outcome-oriented proposals can shape policy in ways that would be
difficult under more procedural administrations. The Trump administration’s core
concerns are not Palestinian statehood or final-status negotiations but regional
stability and commercial advantage. Yet, embedded in Trump-era frameworks,
including the widely discussed “20-point plan,” is a recognition often
overlooked by critics: no sustainable postwar arrangement in Gaza is possible
without a credible Palestinian partner and meaningful regional buy-in.
A potential game-changer is the creation of the US-led Civil-Military
Coordination Center, which marks the first sustained international role in
on-the-ground governance and security in Palestine in the modern era — with the
Trump administration stating it would be “calling the shots.” It reflects a
pragmatic realization that security, governance and reconstruction cannot be
separated and that Palestinian lives cannot be indefinitely bypassed without
undermining stability itself. Trump’s relationship with Israel is also more
contingent than is often assumed. US support is shaped by domestic political
calculations and Trump’s personal distrust of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
When Trump feels manipulated or sees advantage elsewhere, he has shown a
willingness to pressure the Israeli leadership. Similarly with Palestinian
factions. Regional actors engage him pragmatically rather than rhetorically.
Still, Israeli politics remains a difficult variable. Few observers believe the
current Israeli government supports the political components of US frameworks,
including any credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination, which in turn
fuels Palestinian skepticism. Even under a transactional US president willing to
apply pressure, expectations for Israeli flexibility remain low. This constraint
must be confronted honestly. No sustainable postwar arrangement in Gaza is
possible without a credible Palestinian partner and meaningful regional buy-in.
At the same time, the US political landscape is shifting. Within Republican
circles, traditional pro-Israel positions increasingly coexist with “America
First” skepticism toward foreign entanglements and open-ended commitments.
Within the Democratic Party, the center of gravity is moving toward a
values-based framework that treats Palestinian freedom and self-determination as
integral to US credibility abroad. Polling showing roughly half of Democrats
sympathizing more with Palestinians than Israelis — unthinkable a decade ago —
suggests US policy may eventually move, one way or another. For the Palestinian
leadership, opportunity comes with risk. There is a deep trust deficit toward
both Democratic and Republican administrations in Washington, shaped by decades
in which US policy enabled Palestinian suffering while reframing a national
struggle for freedom as a humanitarian management problem. Yet the US remains
the indispensable arena for tangible gains, given its influence over Israel and
its ability to mobilize regional actors. The dilemma is how to engage
pragmatically with a transactional Trump administration without reinforcing
perceptions of collaboration or further eroding domestic legitimacy.
Indeed, the Palestinian legitimacy crisis is structural. Since the Oslo Accords
were signed in the 1990s, the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation
Organization have been trapped between acting as a national liberation movement
and functioning as a security partner to Israel under Israeli occupation.
Governance reform is necessary but insufficient; no amount of reform alone will
convince Israel or the US to endorse Palestinian statehood. Re-legitimation
requires political renewal. National elections are essential but must take place
under a structure that Palestinians view as legitimate — which we do not have
right now. Most Palestinians, especially the majority aged under 35, have never
voted in national elections and remain disconnected from existing political
structures. Palestinian municipal elections scheduled for this spring are
important, but they cannot substitute for broader renewal.
Yet without a tangible political horizon, Palestinian leaders cannot maintain
public buy-in. In this context, harm reduction becomes a necessary — if deeply
unsatisfying — objective. Even limited Israeli restraint, such as easing
movement restrictions or releasing withheld revenues, could materially improve
conditions and preserve the possibility of future progress. A different Israeli
government in or after 2026 may not endorse statehood, but it could be less
actively obstructive.
Regionally, Palestinian-Gulf relations require repair. Gulf states are
indispensable but not unified. Saudi Arabia carries unique political weight,
while Qatar and the UAE can play constructive roles. Engagement must move beyond
episodic financial assistance toward structured political partnership anchored
in regular dialogue and shared planning. The path forward is fragile and
uncertain. If Palestinian leaders choose to seize this opening, they should
engage Washington pragmatically, with proposal-driven diplomacy adapted to
Trump’s preference for speed and visible outcomes. This means: advancing
credible security frameworks; staged approaches to weapons control linked to
civilian gains; and pilot governance arrangements that reconnect interim Gaza
mechanisms to national institutions. On the US side, the real power would come
in leveraging the Civil-Military Coordination Center to protect lives and
promote freedom and prosperity not only in Gaza but in the West Bank as well,
where settler violence has reached unprecedented levels. None of this guarantees
success. But inaction carries costs: further erosion of Palestinian national
capacity and, for the US, growing strain from being tied to an increasingly
isolated ultranationalist Israeli government and the new reality the indefinite
denial of Palestinian self-determination no longer comes without significant
strategic consequences for Washington. If the US and the Palestinian leadership
can work together to create a legitimate, effective and unified Palestinian
political body, that body can, in turn, help build regional stability. That
would be a win-win, not only for Americans and Palestinians but the entire
Middle East.
*Hady Amr previously served as US Special Representative for Palestinian Affairs
and as Deputy Special Envoy for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations for Economics
and Gaza. X: @HadyAmr
Britons should welcome debate, not shut it down
Peter Harrison/Arab News/January 14, 2026
For some time, debate in the UK over immigration has been increasingly reduced
to accusations. Too often, those who raise concerns about immigration levels or
integration are dismissed as “racist” or “fascist,” as though questioning
government policy was a moral failing. While racism undoubtedly exists in this
debate and beyond — and should be challenged wherever it appears — the casual
use of such labels risks shutting down legitimate discussion rather than
improving it. The UK is a liberal democracy built on diversity. People are free
to hold and express conflicting views without fear of retribution — you can
criticize the country’s leaders, and most Britons do. There is a history of
media content, fact and fiction, that mocks, questions and criticizes the people
who run the country and even the royal family — it is what Britishness is about.
Freedom of expression and the rule of law are among the values most British
people hold dear and they have underpinned centuries of social change and
growing inclusivity. The UK remains a country shaped by immigration and most
people largely seem to accept and welcome that. But it is also clear that
immigration has become an important trigger for a general anxiety over the
future of British society. The casual use of derogatory labels risks shutting
down legitimate discussion rather than improving it Many believe that newcomers
should be expected to respect British laws and values, learn the language and
have some understanding of the culture they are joining. These views are not
inherently racist — indeed, some might argue they are not far removed from the
“you play by my rules as long as you live under my roof” philosophy of parents
with unruly children. Nonetheless, those who ask these questions are
increasingly treated as such. And that is where the bonds of British society can
start to unravel.
When concerns are dismissed rather than addressed, people draw the conclusion
that they are not being listened to. This tension is not new. Research conducted
in 2017-18 by Leeds Beckett University found that many young people believed
multiculturalism in the UK and Europe had stalled following the 9/11 attacks.
Indeed, many Muslims said at the time that they felt under threat from angry
Britons wanting revenge — this is a fear that has replayed itself after numerous
other incidents. And the decades of conflict that followed 9/11 altered public
attitudes, increasing skepticism toward unfamiliar cultures and religions.
Whether people agree with these views or not, they do form part of the social
reality in which politics now operates.
But there are many pieces of misinformation that should be corrected: local
British councils are not adopting Shariah law and no British towns have been
told they cannot celebrate Christmas. Brexit is often cited as evidence of a
turn toward intolerance. The argument for Brexit did cite immigration as one of
the apparent problems that needed to be tackled. Others have argued it reflected
a wider sense of disconnection — a belief that national identity, community
cohesion and democratic accountability were being eroded without public consent.
Outlining this solely as an outpouring of racism overlooks the complexity of the
vote and risks repeating the same mistake. Traditional British and English
symbols have become part of this confusion. The Union Flag and St. George’s
Cross are viewed by some as expressions of patriotism and by others as signals
of exclusion. The two flags are unique in that they have been associated through
the years with extreme right-wing groups and football thugs — a gradual move
that left many others hesitant to be associated with them. When concerns are
dismissed rather than addressed, people draw the conclusion that they are not
being listened to The former leader of the Labour Party, Neil Kinnock, once
argued that progressives should not surrender national symbols to extremists but
reclaim them as expressions of shared civic identity. That argument remains
relevant today, as both flags have been hoisted up lampposts and flagpoles
across England, some say as a celebration of their nation, while others claim
the motive is more sinister, marking territory and letting it be known — “this
is England.”
When people who feel unsettled by cultural change are told their concerns are
illegitimate or morally suspect, they do not disappear. They separate themselves
from the mainstream, often gravitating toward parties or movements that promise
to take them seriously. History has shown us that populist politics thrives not
only on grievance, but on the perception that mainstream institutions no longer
listen. But likening Britain’s disenfranchised with the Nazis at the Nuremberg
rallies of the 1930s is likely to turn a large amount of people away from your
views, rather than attract them. None of the concerns raised today about British
culture being under threat require people to indulge in prejudice or excuse
genuinely racist rhetoric.Boundaries matter. But so does a willingness to
distinguish between hostility and unease, between hatred and uncertainty. A
politics that relies on ridicule and dismissal is unlikely to persuade anyone
and may instead deepen the divisions it claims to oppose. If the UK is serious
about defending its values, then inclusivity must mean more than tolerance for
differences. It must also include patience, civility and a readiness to engage
with uncomfortable questions. Few wars have ended without some level of
conversation and compromise. Listening is not surrender, but refusing to do so
may carry consequences far more damaging than engaging in debate and discussion.
**Peter Harrison is a senior editor at Arab News in the Dubai office. He has
covered the Middle East for more than 15 years. X: @PhotoPJHarrison
Iran… an Opening Toward a
Transformative Process
Samir Al-Taqi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Ganuary 14/2026
Developments in Iran have been evolving rapidly since late December 2025, taking
a dangerous direction that cannot be reduced to “livelihood grievances.”
The current wave of protests seems like a serious test for the political system,
not only because the streets have filled but also because the very rules of the
game have shifted profoundly. When the players on the domestic stage - the
authorities, protesters, wavering elites, coercive apparatuses, and corruption
networks - change, the dispute goes from being a debate over prices to a
challenge of the state model as a whole. Here, the significance of the location
is greater than that of slogans. This time, Tehran’s Grand Bazaar lit the fuse.
It is not merely a market but a node in the social contract underpinning the
regime. The bazaar’s role has shifted from being a social “release valve” to
becoming the very “stage of protest,” signaling that the economy is no longer a
neutral arena, and that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp’s dominance over
trade and finance has pushed small and medium businesses to the margins and left
them unable to withstand inflation and sanctions.
Thus, the conflict advances from the periphery to the core: the core of
revenues, interest networks, and legitimacy.
Iran’s fragility is compounded by recent memories. The June 2025 war, as well as
the subsequent US strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, created a
massive rupture. Not only did it undermine Iran’s deterrence; it also repudiated
the regime’s triumphant national legitimizing narrative.
Domestically, it has become difficult to market Iran’s proxies as a successful
investment when citizens see the state failing to protect the country with those
proxies effectively finished. Applying game theory, possessing deterrence is not
enough; they must be credible in the eyes of others, both domestically and
externally. The war broadly shed doubt about Iran’s "credibility and
commitment". Then came the media blackout, further complicating assessment.
While the near-total internet shutdown disrupts popular coordination, it also
amplifies rumors and prevents the formation of “shared common knowledge” that
would allow for a peaceful exit from the crisis. In crises, a lack of
information can be no less dangerous than excessive information, and a single
major breach or image can flip survival expectations, turning obedience into
hesitation, and hesitation into contagion.
Nonetheless, the regime still possesses a solid base underpinned by rents,
ideology, and elite cohesion. Rent flows persist through oil revenues that line
the pockets of the regime and the IRGC, but it is sanctioned rent whose capacity
to buy loyalty has shrunk under the weight of sanctions, war damage, and
currency collapse.
While ideology continues to mobilize the core of the regime’s base and justify
repression, it is eroding as the economy and services, as well as national
deterrence, decline. Elite cohesion, despite factional differences, appears
durable for now, as Iranian elites prefer “organized repression” to chaotic
collapse.
Here, the paradox of power comes into play: repression secures temporary
control, but grievances that fuel implosion down the line. While protesters have
latent power through strikes, revenue disruption, and the depletion of “loyalty
capital,” they are weakened by poor organization and limited commitment in the
absence of unified leadership and a credible vision for the day after, hindering
those who are hesitant from taking to the streets. The decisive factor remains
the “agents” on the ground: the security services. The relationship between the
leadership and field operatives is a classic “principal–agent” dynamic; the
higher the personal cost (economically, in future prospects, and reputationally),
the greater the likelihood of discontent. That is, the equilibrium does not
typically collapse due to the sheer number of protesters alone but also because
confidence of survival within the system erodes.
Experience shows that direct military intervention at the peak of protests
serves the regime’s nationalist narratives, whereas soft tools - supporting
communications, targeted sanctions, and multilateral pressure - allow protests
to grow without granting the authorities the pretext of fighting the “enemy.” In
the background, Russia plays the role of “regime stabilizer,” diplomatically and
in terms of security, while keeping its options open in anticipation of sudden
change. Over the next 6 to 18 months, developments could follow one of four
trajectories, and we can estimate the probability of each one: short-term
containment with chronic instability (about 55 percent); a managed transition
through elite splits, with difficult guarantees (about 25 percent); accelerated
collapse amid broad defections from security apparatuses (about 10 percent); and
the escalating internationalization of the crisis that entangled foreign actors
(about 10 percent). Accordingly, we can say that Iran is currently on a path of
transformation in which time, not slogans, will be the most ruthless and
decisive player.
Selected Face Book & X tweets/
January 14/2026
Michael Young
The success of a negotiation often depends on the quality of the party
mediating. In Lebanon, the quality of U.S. mediators has been lacking, as they
prefer to toe Israel's line. So it's not surprising we're in a deadlock. Mine
for
@NationalComment
Secretary Marco Rubio
Today, we are designating the Lebanese, Egyptian, and Jordanian chapters of the
Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist groups. Under President Trump's leadership, the
United States will eliminate the capabilities and operations of Muslim
Brotherhood chapters that threaten U.S. citizens and our national security.
Habeeb Habeeb
If I become President of Lebanon, I will initiate peace talks with Israel on day
one towards peace and towards having a military alliance with them. I'm dead
serious!!
Someone is going to respond to this post saying that I should have said "when",
not "If"
Iran Military Media
Unlike previous occasions, this time the Turkish government has decided to stand
alongside the Iranian government and people instead of remaining silent or
subtly supporting the Iranian rioters. It seems that they have come to the
conclusion that the threat from Israel is serious and that after Iran, Turkey
will certainly be next.
God willing, this sentiment is genuine. Our hand of brotherhood is always
extended to our Muslim brothers.
Dan Burmawi
Saudi Arabia and Qatar do not want the Khamenei regime to fall and have warned
the United States that toppling the Ayatollah regime would destabilize the oil
sector.
Saudi Arabia prefers a failed theocracy over a thriving democracy that would
render it irrelevant, and Qatar derives its international relevance from its
leverage with Iran.
Tom Harb
There was considerable hope surrounding Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) foreign
policy, both regionally and globally, as he pursued a more assertive, pragmatic,
and diversification-focused approach. However, it now appears he may have lost
some of that initial drive, or perhaps internal influences we’re not fully aware
of have prompted a change in direction.
Even President Trump relied on Saudi Arabia to host key Ukrainian negotiations
early last year (2025), including U.S.-Ukraine talks in Jeddah and Riyadh,
underscoring the Kingdom’s rising role as a diplomatic facilitator.
If MBS continues on this adjusted course—potentially misreading or
under-adapting to the rapid shifts in the international landscape—it could
reflect poorly on the Kingdom internally. Billions in planned investments,
especially those tourism relies on for Vision 2030’s economic diversification
goals, may not materialize as expected, leading to numerous unforeseen negative
impacts on growth, jobs, and overall development.
@DanBurmawy
Michel Hajji Georgiou
Has obscenity become the engine of history?
Looking closely at the thread of events, a savvy observer might conclude that
yes.
And because: there is something obscene in the way the modern world still
celebrates its drills of order, even when the dunes, all the dunes, are giving
up everywhere (... )
If you're interested, my new edit is available here in five languages - here's
the link to French: https://levanttime.com/.../3cb21435-ed55-4b49-b668...
Amer Fakhoury Foundation
In the wake of the protests, 12,000 people have been killed for exercising their
human rights by standing up against a regime that has starved and oppressed them
for many years. Disturbingly, videos on the internet reveal heartbreaking scenes
of bodies in Tehran morgues. The people of Iran are suffering and fighting for
their voices to be heard. Today, we call on everyone to be their voice and fight
alongside them. We must stand in solidarity with the brave individuals risking
everything for their freedom. It is unacceptable to turn a blind eye to their
plight; we must amplify their voices.