English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News
& Editorials
For January 06/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Feast of the Glorious Epiphany of our Lord
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 03/15-22: "As the
people were filled with expectation, and all were questioning in their hearts
concerning John, whether he might be the Messiah, John answered all of them by
saying, ‘I baptize you with water; but one who is more powerful than I is
coming; I am not worthy to untie the thong of his sandals. He will baptize you
with the Holy Spirit and fire. His winnowing-fork is in his hand, to clear his
threshing-floor and to gather the wheat into his granary; but the chaff he will
burn with unquenchable fire.’So, with many other exhortations, he proclaimed the
good news to the people. But Herod the ruler, who had been rebuked by him
because of Herodias, his brother’s wife, and because of all the evil things that
Herod had done, added to them all by shutting up John in prison. Now when all
the people were baptized, and when Jesus also had been baptized and was praying,
the heaven was opened, and the Holy Spirit descended upon him in bodily form
like a dove. And a voice came from heaven, ‘You are my Son, the Beloved; with
you I am well pleased.’
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January
05-06/2026
Biblical and Historical Reflections on the Feast of the Epiphany/Elias Bejjani/January
06/2026
Video and Text: “Astrologers Have Lied, Even If They Speak the Truth”/Elias
Bejjani/January 02/2026
Ortagus Will Not Attend Wednesday; Washington Source Tells "Nidaa Al-Watan":
"Lebanon Should Not Lose Her"
Israel says targets Hezbollah, Hamas in Lebanon strikes
Israel strikes Hezbollah and Hamas targets in Lebanon ahead of a key disarmament
meeting
Israel strikes buildings in south Lebanon, West Bekaa after evacuation warnings
Rubio Vows to Eliminate Hezbollah from Venezuela After Maduro Capture
Israeli Army Issues Evacuation Warnings for Southern Lebanon
Report: US in indirect talks with Hezbollah, KSA may play economic role
Report: US asks Lebanon to keep Hezbollah out of any Iran war to avoid strike
Banks Association urges parliament to take 'free and courageous stance'
Netanyahu discusses Iran, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza in security meeting
EU chief von der Leyen to visit Lebanon this week
Lebanon Could Face ‘Indirect but Serious’ Fallout from Venezuela, Warns Senior
Official
Lebanon Must Become Independent of Saudi Arabia Too/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/This
is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Syria and Lebanon: Who Is Moving Forward in 2026?/Salam El Zaatari/This is
Beirut/January 05/2026
An Appeal from Former Minister Youssef Salameh to President Trump: We Hope the
U.S. Under Your Leadership—As the Strongest Nation—Will Adopt the Culture of
Mandate Rather than Occupation
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on January
05-06/2026
Video-Link from New York Post Youtube Platform/ Interview with Iran’s
Crown Exiled Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi/
Netanyahu says Israel won’t let Iran restore ballistic missile program
Delcy Rodriguez formally sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president
Ousted Maduro pleads not guilty to US narcotics charges
Trump says Cuba 'ready to fall,' threatens Colombia after Venezuela attack
Colombian president ready to 'take up arms' in face of Trump threats
Iran’s leaders struggle to end protests, US action in Venezuela stokes fears
Eyeing its own security, Europe muted as Trump ousts Venezuela’s Maduro
Maduro son vows unconditional support for interim leader Rodriguez
UN chief Guterres raises concerns about instability in Venezuela, legality of US
operation
Trump’s Venezuela oil revival plan is a $100 bln gamble
Egypt says it shares ‘identical’ positions with Saudi Arabia on Yemen, Sudan
CNN suggests ‘false information’ could be behind UAE-KSA tensions
Delegation led by head of Yemen’s STC to travel to Saudi Arabia, sources say
KSA-Backed Forces Reclaim Eastern Yemen as Rift with UAE-Allied STC Deepens
Syria Confirms U.S.-Mediated Talks With Israel
Khamenei Has a Plan to Flee Iran if Unrest Escalates
Witkoff, Kushner to represent US at Ukraine talks, says White House
Syria denies president targeted in any security incident
After capture of Maduro, US president warns Iran it could get ‘hit very hard’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on January
05-06/2026
Trump,
Maduro, and Iran/David Hale/This is Beirut/January 05/2026
Why the US Should Recognize South Yemen/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/National
Interest/January 05/2026
Why Trump bared his teeth and nabbed Venezuela’s Maduro — and it’s not just
drugs/Jonathan Schanzer/New York Post/January 05/2026
Murderous dictatorships, the alternative scenarios/Charles Elias Chartouni/This
is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Les dictatures meurtrières à la dérive, les scénarios alternatifs/Charles Elias
Chartouni/This is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Will the West fail the Iranian people once again?/Karam Nama/The Arab
Weekly/January 05/2026
A US Venezuela Victory May Help China Gain an Edge/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/January
05, 2026
Yemen and Choosing to Build Stability/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat
newspaper/January 05, 2026
Selected Face Book & X tweets/ January 05/2026
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January
05-06/2026
Biblical and Historical Reflections on the Feast of the Epiphany
Elias Bejjani/January 06/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/150792/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaJeWqVGGJU
On the sixth of January, the Church commemorates the Baptism of our Lord Jesus
Christ at the hands of John the Baptist in the River Jordan. As recorded in the
Holy Gospel according to St. Luke (03:15-22): " And as the people were in
expectation, and all men reasoned in their hearts concerning John, whether
perhaps he was the Christ, John answered them all, “I indeed baptize you with
water, but he comes who is mightier than I, the strap of whose sandals I am not
worthy to loosen. He will baptize you in the Holy Spirit and fire. His winnowing
fan is in his hand, and he will thoroughly cleanse his threshing floor, and will
gather the wheat into his barn; but he will burn up the chaff with unquenchable
fire.”Then with many other exhortations he preached good news to the people, but
Herod the tetrarch,† being reproved by him for Herodias, his brother’s‡ wife,
and for all the evil things which Herod had done, added this also to them all,
that he shut up John in prison. Now when all the people were baptized, Jesus
also had been baptized and was praying. The sky was opened, and the Holy Spirit
descended in a bodily form like a dove on him; and a voice came out of the sky,
saying “You are my beloved Son. In you I am well pleased.”
The Mystery of Baptism: Death to the Old Man and Resurrection in Christ
In ecclesiastical and theological understanding, the Sacrament of Baptism is
considered the "Gateway to the Mysteries" and the bridge from darkness to light.
It is not merely a ritual of purification by water, but an act of total
liberation from the dominion of the Old Man—the man of original sin inherited by
humanity. By immersion in the waters of Baptism, the "Old Adam," with all his
worldly desires and separation from God, is buried, so that a "New Man" may be
born from the womb of water and the Spirit—reconciled with the Creator and
clothed in the robe of righteousness and holiness. The Baptism of our Lord in
the Jordan was not due to a need for repentance, for He is the All-Holy and
sinless One; rather, it was the inauguration of this salvific path. His descent
into the water was a washing of our human nature, and His ascent was a
proclamation of our victory over spiritual death, that all who are baptized in
His Name may become partakers of His Divine Sonship and heirs of eternal life.
The Site of Christ’s Baptism
Since the third century, continuous Christian tradition places the site of
Christ’s Baptism near the "Lower Ford," five miles from the Dead Sea. Upon this
site, the Greek Orthodox Monastery of St. John the Baptist was built. The
Syriacs call this feast "Denho," which means "The Dawning" or "The
Manifestation." Its Greek equivalent is "Epiphany," the name by which the feast
is known across European languages. The Arabic term "Ghattas" (Immersion) refers
to Christ being immersed in the Jordan River for His Baptism.
John the Baptist Baptizes and Prepares the Way
The Gospel according to St. Mark (1:1-11) "The beginning of the Good News of
Jesus Christ, the Son of God.
As it is written in the prophets, “Behold,† I send my messenger before your
face, who will prepare your way before you:* the voice of one crying in the
wilderness, ‘Make ready the way of the Lord! Make his paths straight!’ ” John
came baptizing‡ in the wilderness and preaching the baptism of repentance for
forgiveness of sins. All the country of Judea and all those of Jerusalem went
out to him. They were baptized by him in the Jordan river, confessing their
sins. John was clothed with camel’s hair and a leather belt around his waist. He
ate locusts and wild honey. He preached, saying, “After me comes he who is
mightier than I, the strap of whose sandals I am not worthy to stoop down and
loosen. I baptized you in§ water, but he will baptize you in the Holy Spirit.”
In those days, Jesus came from Nazareth of Galilee, and was baptized by John in
the Jordan. Immediately coming up from the water, he saw the heavens parting and
the Spirit descending on him like a dove. A voice came out of the sky, “You are
my beloved Son, in whom I am well pleased.”
The Site of "Al-Maghtas"
Recently, significant information has been uncovered regarding the area of
"Bethany Beyond the Jordan." Archaeological excavations along Wadi Al-Kharrar
since 1996, supported by biblical texts and Byzantine historians, confirm that
the site where John preached and baptized—including the Baptism of Christ—is
located on the East Bank of the Jordan River. During the 1997 excavations, a
series of ancient sites were found along the valley, including a Byzantine
monastery at Tell Al-Kharrar. The site features natural springs forming pools
that flow into the Jordan, creating a pastoral oasis.
Elijah’s Hill (Tell Mar Elias)
Wadi Al-Kharrar is the modern name for "Saphsaphas," which appears on the Madaba
Mosaic Map. Near the monastery complex lies a hill known as Tell Mar Elias, the
site from which the Prophet Elijah was taken up to heaven in a chariot of fire.
Pilgrims have flocked here for centuries; the Russian Abbot Daniel wrote in 1106
AD about the cave where John the Baptist lived and the "beautiful stream of
water" that still flows there.
The Baptismal Pools and the Church of St. John
Three pools dating from the Roman and Byzantine periods (3rd to 6th centuries
AD) were discovered at Tell Al-Kharrar, designed for pilgrims to descend and be
baptized. Archaeologists also uncovered the remains of a Byzantine church built
during the reign of Emperor Anastasius, located 300 meters east of the river,
marking the traditional spot of the Epiphany.
St. Mary of Egypt
The region is also tied to the legend of St. Mary of Egypt, who left a life of
sin in Alexandria to find repentance in Jerusalem. After hearing a voice telling
her, "Cross the Jordan and you shall find rest," she spent 47 years in the
Jordanian desert in prayer and fasting. She was discovered by the monk Zosimas,
who gave her Holy Communion before her passing.
Epiphany Traditions in Lebanon
Epiphany (known as Al-Ghattas) holds a prestigious place in Lebanese customs,
traditions, and folkloric practices, as documented extensively in Fuad Afram al-Bustani’s
book, The Meaning of Days (Volume I).
The Passing of Christ: "Dayem Dayem"
One of the oldest Lebanese beliefs regarding Epiphany is that Christ passes by
at midnight. He blesses the families waiting for Him—those who stay awake until
midnight in joy and celebration. As He passes, He says: "Dayem! Dayem!"
(meaning: "May your joy and delight be everlasting!").
Families who sleep, lock their doors, or extinguish their lamps do not receive
this blessing. Because of this, some Lebanese refer to the Eve of Epiphany as
the "Night of Destiny" (Laylat al-Qadr), spending it in continuous supplication
and prayer.
Folklore and Nature
In their evening tales, people say that all trees bow to Christ as He passes
that night, except for the mulberry tree. For this reason, it is associated with
pride and arrogance; people "punish" it by breaking its wood and burning it
specifically on that night.
The Blessing of the "Mouneh" (Pantry)
Christ’s blessing also extends to the family’s provisions and stores, ensuring
their supplies remain abundant—"Dayem Dayem."
As midnight approaches, mothers rush to the "Beit al-Mouneh" (the pantry). They
go to the wheat containers, various grains, jars of oil and olives, vats of wine
or Arak, jars of ghee, pots of Qawarma (preserved meat), and baskets of raisins.
They stir these contents while repeating "Dayem Dayem," so that blessing
overflows and the provisions last throughout the year.
Theological and Historical Aspects of the Baptism
Why was the Sinless Christ Baptized? The Church affirms He was baptized "to
fulfill all righteousness." By His baptism, He sanctified the waters of the
Jordan, making them capable of granting "New Birth" to humanity. He was not
cleansed by the water; rather, the water was cleansed by His touch.
The Manifestation of the Holy Trinity: It is called Theophany because the three
Persons were manifested together: the Son in the water, the Holy Spirit as a
dove, and the Father’s Voice from the heavens.
The Symbolism of the Jordan: Just as Joshua led Israel across the Jordan to the
Promised Land, Jesus (the New Joshua) crosses the water to lead humanity into
the Kingdom of Heaven.
Note: The information in this article is compiled from various documented
ecclesiastical, theological, research, and media references/The Above Editorial
& Video are from the 2015 Archive
Video and Text: “Astrologers Have Lied, Even If They
Speak the Truth”
Elias Bejjani/January 02/2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/138623/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akG1nXqso_E&t=608s
Have those who practice astrology, prophecies, lies, and hypocrisy replaced
Almighty God?
Have they truly become capable of reading the future and knowing the unseen?
There is no doubt that in Lebanon, almost all the owners of media facilities (TV
stations, radio stations, YouTube channels, newspapers, and online websites)
neither fear Almighty God nor the hour of His last reckoning. They brazenly
promote infidelity, hoaxes, and lies through programs that epitomize spiritual
decadence. These programs—whose stars are alleged astrologers claiming to know
and predict the future—are mere swindlers and hypocrites. Some of them are even
linked to regional and local intelligence groups that use misinformation to
propagate various conspiracies.This heretical media status is deeply flawed,
sad, disgusting, and frightening. Many Lebanese media institutions have sunk
into a mire of faithlessness and immorality.
To those responsible for these outlets—who promote the lies and trivialities of
heretics practicing magic, astrology, and false prophecies—we ask: Do you fear
God?
Do you believe in the Holy Scriptures? Are you aware of the dire consequences
awaiting those who engage in such satanic practices, condemned by Christian,
Jewish, and Islamic teachings alike?
We also ask Lebanese religious authorities: Why do you not take a firm stand
against every media outlet that promotes infidelity and Satanism through
programs of predictions, prophecies, and claims of knowledge of the unseen?
These programs blatantly defy all heavenly laws. Similarly, we question the
inaction of MPs, ministers, and other state officials: Why have you not enacted
laws to prevent these heresies, which are sinful according to all monotheistic
religions?
For those who follow the heresies promoted by most Lebanese media during the New
Year—whether in the homeland or the diaspora—this situation evokes memories of
the sinful eras of Sodom, Gomorrah, Noah, and Nimrod’s arrogance. Have
astrologers, false prophets, and hypocrites replaced God Almighty, claiming to
read the future and uncover the unseen? Do clerics, politicians, media
professionals, and heretics not understand that only God knows the future? Even
the prophets and messengers were not granted this grace. The holy books of
monotheistic religions unequivocally condemn practices such as spirit
preparation, sorcery, divination, astrology, and the reading of horoscopes.
These are considered satanic acts, and believers are urged to reject and avoid
anyone who engages in them. Such practices divert believers from God, leading
them toward darkness and deception.
In Islam, astrology and all forms of fortune-telling are explicitly prohibited
and forbidden (haram). As the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) stated in
Sahih Muslim: “Whoever goes to a fortune-teller and asks him about anything, his
prayers will not be accepted for forty nights.” If merely consulting a
fortune-teller results in such consequences, what fate awaits the
fortune-tellers themselves?
Christianity and Judaism similarly denounce these practices. The Bible teaches
that Satan often masquerades as good, using astrologers, magicians, and
fortune-tellers to deceive people and lead them astray. Those who fall into
these traps risk distancing themselves from God and embracing satanic deception.
Astrologers and fortune-tellers often become victims of their own delusions,
unknowingly serving as tools of Satan. As humans created in God’s image, we are
called to seek His will through prayer, faith, and adherence to His teachings,
not through sorcery or astrology.
Anyone who believes in the false claims of astrologers and fortune-tellers
commits a grave sin, as these acts defy the core tenets of all monotheistic
religions. It is no wonder our country faces tribulations, hardships, and divine
wrath. As our society mirrors the sins of Sodom and Gomorrah, it should come as
no surprise that we endure God’s righteous judgment.
In conclusion, all who practice astrology, divination, and similar acts stand in
direct opposition to the teachings of heavenly religions. They defy God’s will,
becoming tools of Satan and slaves to sin, infidelity, and ingratitude. Those
who believe in or promote such practices are complicit in these acts and share
in their guilt. We end with a verse from Leviticus 20:27 (Old Testament): “A man
or a woman who is a medium or spiritist among you must be put to death. You are
to stone them; their blood will be on their own heads.”
NB: The Above Editorial & Video are from the 2023 Archive
Ortagus Will Not Attend
Wednesday; Washington Source Tells "Nidaa Al-Watan": "Lebanon Should Not Lose
Her"
Joyce Akiki/Nidaa Al-Watan/January 6, 2026 (Translated from
Arabic)
"Morgan Ortagus has been sidelined from the Lebanese file." This talk has been
circulating behind the scenes, but nothing official has been issued by the U.S.
administration in this regard so far. Sources in Washington tell Nidaa Al-Watan
that these claims remain within the realm of "rumors," noting that the American
Ambassador, Michael Issa, had requested to take charge of the Lebanese file
himself prior to assuming his duties in Lebanon. The sources explained that Issa
is now ready to handle the file following introductory meetings with Lebanese
officials, which allowed him to form a broad and significant perspective on how
to manage the situation. On the other hand, a well-informed source in Washington
tells Nidaa Al-Watan that Ortagus is "extremely well-versed in the Lebanese
file, which she took over nearly a year ago, and it is not in Lebanon's interest
to lose her." The source emphasizes that the American envoy "now possesses long
experience in Lebanese affairs, and it would be very difficult for another
figure to take over the file and reconstruct it from scratch." The source
clarified that Ortagus is working hard to reach an agreement regarding the
negotiations, which is in Lebanon's interest to achieve. She put her weight
behind increasing Lebanon's representation in the "Mechanism" Committee by
adding a civilian to the committee; she succeeded in doing so after an effort to
convince Lebanese officials to appoint a civilian figure for the task, leading
to the appointment of former Ambassador Simon Karam as head of the Lebanese
delegation. Nidaa Al-Watan has learned from Lebanese sources that Ortagus "will
not come to Beirut to participate in the 'Mechanism' Committee meeting scheduled
for tomorrow, Wednesday, after the committee's head, U.S. General Joseph
Clearfield, suggested the meeting be limited to military personnel—in agreement
with Ortagus and, of course, under instructions from the U.S.
administration."Why did this happen? Sources answer: "Because the U.S.
administration wants the 'Mechanism' meeting this time to take on a strictly
military character, discussing what the Lebanese Army has achieved south of the
Litani River and its commitment to the plan and timeline it established.
Additionally, the U.S. administration is eyeing the Lebanese cabinet session
scheduled for this coming Thursday, and what the government will decide in light
of Army Commander General Rudolf Heikal's report regarding the army's plan and
the completion of its first phase, in preparation for the second phase
concerning the exclusivity of weapons (disarmament)." Sources mention the
possibility of holding another "Mechanism" meeting next week with full military
and civilian attendance. There are talks that French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian
might attend, and the United States has not objected to this. In any case, the
coming hours in Beirut are decisive; the milestones are many, but the
requirement is one: the exclusivity of weapons.
Israel says targets Hezbollah, Hamas in Lebanon strikes
AFP/January 05, 2026
CAIRO: The Israeli military launched strikes on southern and eastern Lebanon on
Monday, Lebanese state media reported, after warning it would hit what it called
Hezbollah and Hamas targets in four villages. It was the first such warning
issued by the Israeli military this year, as Israel continues to strike targets
in Lebanon despite a ceasefire with Hezbollah. An AFP photographer in Kfar Hatta,
one of the targeted villages in south Lebanon, saw dozens of families flee the
village after the warning was issued, amid drone activity in the area, adding
that ambulances and fire trucks were on standby. Lebanon’s state-run National
News Agency (NNA) reported strikes on the four villages. It later reported a new
series of strikes near the southern towns of Saksakiyeh and Sarafand, without
prior warning. According to the NNA, the strike on Al-Manara in eastern Lebanon
caused “the complete destruction of a house and serious damage to surrounding
houses, cars and commercial establishments.”The Israeli military said in a
statement it “began striking Hezbollah and Hamas terror targets in Lebanon.”In
two separate posts on X, the military’s Arabic-language spokesman, Col. Avichay
Adraee, said the villages were Kfar Hatta and Annan in south Lebanon, and Al-Manara
and Ain Al-Tineh in eastern Lebanon.Adraee said the military would hit Hezbollah
sites in Kfar Hatta and Ain Al-Tinah, and Hamas sites in Annan and Al-Manara.
The NNA said the home targeted in Al-Manara belonged to Sharhabil Sayed, a Hamas
leader in Lebanon who was killed by Israel in 2024.
Repeated attacks
Despite a year-old ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel carries out
regular strikes on Lebanon, usually saying it is bombing Hezbollah sites and
operatives, and occasionally Hamas targets. Two people were killed in an Israeli
strike that targeted a vehicle on Sunday, around 10 kilometers (six miles) from
the border, the Lebanese health ministry said. In November, an Israeli strike on
south Lebanon’s Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp killed 13 people. Israel
said it targeted a Hamas compound, with the group rejecting the claim. It has
also hit Hamas’ ally in Lebanon, the Jamaa Islamiya group, which claimed
responsibility for multiple attacks against Israel before the ceasefire. Under
heavy US pressure and fears of expanded Israeli strikes, Beirut has committed to
disarming Hezbollah, which was badly weakened after more than a year of
hostilities with Israel including two months of open war that ended with the
November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanon’s army was expected to complete the disarmament
south of the Litani River — about 30 kilometers from the border with Israel — by
the end of 2025, before tackling the rest of the country. All four of Monday’s
targeted villages are located north of the river. Israel’s Foreign Minister
Gideon Saar on Sunday called the disarmament efforts far from sufficient.
Lebanon’s cabinet is to meet on Thursday to discuss the army’s progress, while
the ceasefire monitoring committee — comprising Lebanon, Israel, the United
States, France and UN peacekeepers — is also set to meet this week. At least 350
people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon since the ceasefire,
according to an AFP tally of Lebanese health ministry reports.
Israel strikes Hezbollah and Hamas targets in Lebanon ahead
of a key disarmament meeting
BASSEM MROUE/AP/January 5, 2026
BEIRUT (AP) — Israel’s air force struck areas in southern and eastern Lebanon on
Monday, saying they are home to infrastructure for the militant groups Hezbollah
and Hamas. The strikes came a few days before Lebanon’s army commander is
scheduled to brief the government on its mission of disarming Hezbollah in areas
along the border with Israel. The strikes took place nearly two hours after
Israel’s military Arabic language spokesman Avichay Adraee posted warnings on X
that the military would strike targets for Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas
groups in two villages in the eastern Bekaa Valley and two others in southern
Lebanon. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency said a home struck in the
village of Manara in the Bekaa Valley belonged to Sharhabil al-Sayed, a Hamas
military commander who was killed in an Israeli drone strike in May 2024.The
Lebanese army last year began the disarmament process of Palestinian groups
while the government has said that by the end of 2025 all the areas close to the
border with Israel — known as the south Litani area — will be clear of
Hezbollah’s armed presence. The Lebanese government is scheduled to discuss
Hezbollah’s disarmament during a meeting Thursday that will be attended by army
commander Gen. Rudolph Haikal. Monday’s airstrikes were in villages north of the
Litani river and far from the border with Israel. The
disarmament of Hezbollah and other Palestinian groups by the Lebanese government
came after a 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah in which much of the
political and military leadership of the Iran-backed group was killed.
The latest Israel-Hezbollah war began Oct. 8, 2023, a day after Hamas
attacked southern Israel, when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in solidarity
with Hamas. Israel launched a widespread bombardment of Lebanon in September
2024 that severely weakened Hezbollah, followed by a ground invasion.
The war ended in November 2024 with a ceasefire brokered by the U.S.
Israel strikes buildings in
south Lebanon, West Bekaa after evacuation warnings
Agence France Presse/January 5, 2026
The Israeli military launched strikes on southern and eastern Lebanon on Monday,
Lebanese state media reported, after warning it would hit what it called
Hezbollah and Hamas targets in four villages. It was the first such warning
issued by the Israeli military this year, as Israel continues to strike targets
in Lebanon despite a ceasefire with Hezbollah. An AFP photographer in Kfar Hatta,
one of the targeted villages in south Lebanon, saw dozens of families flee the
village after the warning was issued, amid drone activity in the area, adding
that ambulances and fire trucks were on standby.
Lebanon's state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported strikes on the four
villages. According to the NNA, the strike on al-Manara in eastern Lebanon
caused "the complete destruction of a house and serious damage to surrounding
houses, cars and commercial establishments." The Israeli military said in a
statement it "began striking Hezbollah and Hamas terror targets in Lebanon." In
two separate posts on X, the military's Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee
said the villages were Kfar Hatta and Annan in south Lebanon, and al-Manara and
Ain al-Tineh in eastern Lebanon.Adraee said the military would hit Hezbollah
sites in Kfar Hatta and Ain al-Tineh, and Hamas sites in Annan and Al-Manara.
The NNA said the home targeted in al-Manara belonged to Sharhabil Sayed, a Hamas
leader in Lebanon who was killed by Israel in 2024.
Repeated attacks -
Despite a year-old ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel carries out
regular strikes on Lebanon, usually saying it is bombing Hezbollah sites and
operatives, and occasionally Hamas targets. Two people were killed in an Israeli
strike that targeted a vehicle on Sunday, around 10 kilometers (six miles) from
the border, the Lebanese health ministry said. In November, an Israeli strike on
south Lebanon's Ain al-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp killed 13 people. Israel
said it targeted a Hamas compound, with the group rejecting the claim. It has
also hit Hamas' ally in Lebanon, the Islamist group Jamaa Islamiya, which
claimed responsibility for multiple attacks against Israel before the ceasefire.
Under heavy U.S. pressure and fears of expanded Israeli strikes, Lebanon has
committed to disarming Hezbollah, which was badly weakened after more than a
year of hostilities with Israel including two months of open war that ended with
the November 2024 ceasefire. Lebanon's army was expected to complete the
disarmament south of the Litani River -- about 30 kilometers from the border
with Israel -- by the end of 2025, before tackling the rest of the country. All
four of Monday's targeted villages are located north of the river. Israel's
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Sunday called the disarmament efforts far from
sufficient. Lebanon's cabinet is to meet on Thursday to discuss the army's
progress, while the ceasefire monitoring committee -- comprising Lebanon,
Israel, the United States, France and U.N. peacekeepers -- is also set to meet
this week. At least 350 people have been killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon since
the ceasefire, according to an AFP tally of Lebanese health ministry reports.
Rubio Vows to Eliminate
Hezbollah from Venezuela After Maduro Capture
This is Beirut/January 05/2026
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Sunday that Hezbollah will no longer
have operations in Venezuela after elite U.S. forces captured wanted narco-terrorist
and former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas. Speaking
on CBS' "Face the Nation," Rubio said, "It's very simple, OK? In the 21st
century, under the Trump administration, we are not going to have a country like
Venezuela in our own hemisphere, in the sphere of control and the crossroads for
Hezbollah, for Iran and for every other malign influence in the world. That's
just not gonna exist." He also told NBC's "Meet the Press" that, in regard to
Venezuela, that meant, "No more Iran/Hezbollah presence there."
Tehran Responds
Despite Rubio’s warning, Iran said on Monday that its relations with close ally
Venezuela remain unchanged. "Our relations with all countries, including
Venezuela, are based on mutual respect and will remain so," Iranian Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baqaei said at a press conference. Baqaei also
called for the release of Maduro and his wife and described the U.S. operation
as an “illegal act.” He said, "As the Venezuelan people have emphasised, their
president must be released.”
Hezbollah’s Operations Across Venezuela
Hezbollah maintains a significant presence throughout Venezuela. Reportedly, the
militant group uses parts of the country as a logistical hub for activities
ranging from financial operations to intelligence gathering and alleged
narcotics trafficking. Additional public reporting suggests Venezuelan
cooperation with Iranian and Hezbollah-linked operations targeting Iranian
dissidents abroad, including attempted kidnappings and intimidation campaigns in
the Western Hemisphere. The Maduro regime also
provided a safe haven for Hezbollah fighters. In October 2025, former U.S.
Treasury official Marshall Billingslea testified that Caracas issued thousands
of Venezuelan passports and other documents to individuals with suspected
Hezbollah ties, facilitating their travel and operations across the region, and
has allowed unlawful financing and trafficking routes to persist under
government control. The former Treasury official also
claimed that Venezuela allowed Hezbollah to establish a paramilitary training
center on Margarita Island and awarded contracts to front companies connected to
the group as early as 2001. He warned that this collaboration has intensified
since Maduro took power.
Taking advantage of the lack of rule of law in Venezuela and parts of Latin
America, Hezbollah engaged in money laundering connected to the drug trade.
Origins and Iranian Ties
The origins of the militant group’s presence in the country date back to the
mid-1980s, when the organization began recruiting members from segments of the
local Lebanese diaspora that migrated there following Lebanon’s civil war. Since
Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, came to power in 1999, relations between
Tehran and Caracas tightened significantly. Chávez cultivated close ties with
Iranian leaders, including visits and mutual honors, and embraced Tehran as an
ally against Western influence, supporting Iran’s nuclear program and initiating
numerous joint economic, industrial, and infrastructure agreements in the 2000s.
Under Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro, the two governments signed hundreds of
accords covering oil, finance, technology, and trade, and even established
direct flights and joint banking initiatives to deepen bilateral engagement.
Their alliance came to be known as an “axis of unity” opposing U.S. hegemony.
Venezuelan officials even went so far as to openly thank Iran for helping
Caracas mitigate sanctions impacts. By the 2010s, Hezbollah’s presence in
Venezuela was widely described by U.S. authorities as part of a transnational
support and financing network.
Beirut Responds
Hezbollah unleashed a harsh response to the U.S. operation, claiming it
"condemns the terrorist aggression and American thuggery against the Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela" and "further affirms its full solidarity with Venezuela —
its people, presidency and government — in confronting this American aggression
and arrogance." The militant group’s reaction reflects its growing fear and the
recognition that it may soon confront unprecedented pressure too. Lebanese
Forces parliamentarian Ziad Hawat, stated in a televised interview that what has
occurred in Venezuela is reminiscent of the aftermath of September 11, 2001,
marked by the dominance of a single American actor. He added that Trump will
proceed with the Iran, Syria, and Gaza files, and that the repercussions for
Lebanon and the world will be significant. He stressed that the new realities
must be addressed with seriousness.
MP Waddah also Al-Sadek wrote on X: “The so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ is
collapsing from head to toe. The party now stands before a historic and decisive
choice: either to break away from an axis that has brought nothing but
destruction and poverty to Lebanon and to the party’s own constituency, or to
persist in collective political suicide, in which case, what lies ahead will be
more dangerous than what we have already endured.” The U.S. operation marks a
pivotal moment in a shifting world order; the Trump administration has made it
clear it is unwilling to tolerate authoritarian regimes, and the operation in
Venezuela is unlikely to stop there.
Israeli Army Issues
Evacuation Warnings for Southern Lebanon
This is Beirut/January 05/2026
The Israeli army on Monday issued what it described as an “urgent warning” to
residents of the southern Lebanese towns of Kfar Hatta and Ain al-Tineh, calling
on those living in buildings marked in red on maps it circulated, as well as
nearby structures, to evacuate immediately.
In a post on X, the Israeli army’s Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee said
residents were located near buildings allegedly used by Hezbollah, urging them
to move at least 300 meters away. He added that Israeli forces would soon target
what he described as military infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah, warning
that remaining in the designated areas would put civilians at risk. According to
Adraee, the planned strikes are aimed at countering what he termed Hezbollah’s
attempts to rebuild its military capabilities in the two areas. Earlier on
Monday, Adraee issued a similar warning to residents of Anan Al-Manara, stating
that Israeli forces would carry out attacks against what he described as
military infrastructure linked to Hamas in the area. Also on Monday, Adraee said
the Israeli army had killed two individuals in southern Lebanon whom he
identified as Hezbollah operatives involved in reconstructing military
infrastructure. He said an Israeli strike on Sunday targeted the Jemjema area,
resulting in the deaths. Adraee claimed that the activities of the two men
constituted a “flagrant violation” of understandings between Israel and Lebanon,
adding that the Israeli army would continue to act to eliminate what it
considers threats and to protect Israel.
Report: US in indirect
talks with Hezbollah, KSA may play economic role
Naharnet/January 05/2026
In a climate of escalating regional tensions, Hezbollah is exploring a
diplomatic settlement aimed at neutralizing threats from the "Trump-Netanyahu"
alliance, a media report said on Monday. Recent discussions between Lebanese and
Saudi figures during an Arab economic conference meanwhile focused on a
strategic shift: activating a Saudi economic role in Lebanon, al-Joumhouria
newspaper quoted “credible sources” as saying. The proposed plan suggests that
large-scale Saudi and Gulf investments, alongside international and American
firms, could serve as a de facto security guarantee for south Lebanon, the
report said. A high-level Saudi economic delegation, led by a government
minister, is meanwhile expected to visit Lebanon shortly to explore these
prospects. Beyond regional players, an indirect communication channel between
the United States and Hezbollah is currently active through third-party
mediators, the sources said. According to the report, Washington wants to ensure
long-term stability along the Blue Line and secure U.S. stakes in the
exploration and investment of oil and gas blocks in Lebanon’s southern waters.
The report suggests that mediators have delivered "tempting" U.S. offers
spanning political, security and economic incentives.
Report: US asks Lebanon to keep Hezbollah out of any Iran
war to avoid strike
Naharnet/January 05/2026
President Joseph Aoun’s latest reassurance that “specter of war has become
distant” was based on “information received by the Lebanese official authorities
from high-ranking international parties and Western embassies,” a prominent
Lebanese official said. “During their Dec. 29 meeting in Florida, U.S. President
Donald Trump and the enemy’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed on
striking Iran if it does not engage in a settlement according to the U.S.
conditions,” the official told al-Akhbar newspaper. Trump and Netanyahu “also
agreed on launching the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and on
keeping Lebanon out of any strike targeted against Iran during this period,” the
official said. The official added that keeping Lebanon out of the conflict is
“conditional on Hezbollah staying out of the confrontation, seeing as any
participation by the party will be met with a broad and deep Israeli strike that
will especially target Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa.”Keeping Lebanon
neutral “does not mean that the enemy’s dailuy attacks will stop,” the official
said, noting that “the Americans have said that Israel will not change its rules
of engagement, but that the war’s expansion will be linked to what happens with
Iran.”The official also revealed that Saudi Arabia is exerting strenuous efforts
with Iran to “push it to a settlement,” adding that Riyadh fears that any chaos
in Iran might affect the Gulf countries. “The Americans are convinced that
Iran’s engagement in a settlement under their conditions -- which are a total
halt of the nuclear program and the cessation of support for the Iranian proxies
in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen -- would lead to a settlement over the Lebanese
file,” the official added. “In the event of a strike against Iran, its outcome
will also affect the Lebanese file, because Hezbollah will be weaker and less
capable of maneuvering should the attack on Iran lead to defeating the regime in
it, seeing as according to the U.S. vision, a policy of exhausting and
dismantling Hezbollah could be adopted after breaking Hezbollah’s strategic and
essential depth, striking its sources of strength and severing the channels that
enable it to continue arming itself,” the official went on to say.The Americans
will also seek to undermine Hezbollah’s domestic legitimacy and boost border
monitoring to prevent arms smuggling in parallel with continued precision
strikes against its infrastructure and leaders, the official said.
Banks Association urges parliament to take 'free and courageous stance'
Naharnet/January 05/2026
The Association of Banks in Lebanon announced Monday that the government’s draft
law on financial regulation and deposit recovery was issued “without any serious
study of the figures required for its implementation.”“If it were serious, the
draft law should have been preceded by determining the size of the deficit, how
it will affect the Central Bank of Lebanon and the banks, an accurate assessment
of non-performing assets, the amount of funds required to repay the various
deposit categories, and verification of the availability of the necessary
liquidity,” ABL added in a statement after a meeting.
“The argument that the draft law provides a framework for a solution is invalid,
as those who provide a framework for a solution do not offer depositors
guarantees that may not be possible to fulfill,” ABL warned. It said that this
comes at a time when the draft law is characterized by the Lebanese state's
evasion of a clear acknowledgment of its debts to the Central Bank of Lebanon,
despite “the proven nature of these debts, and its commitment to fulfill them."
“By repaying these funds and settling the deficits in the successive budgets of
the Central Bank of Lebanon, in accordance with the provisions of Article 113 of
the Monetary and Credit Law, the gap will be eliminated in favor of depositors,”
ABL noted. The Association also pointed out that “the Lebanese state is also the
primary beneficiary of the crisis, as the currency devaluation has reduced its
public debt from over ninety-two billion dollars to less than ten billion
dollars in market value -- one of the lowest ratios in the world when compared
to GDP.”“Despite this, no one is calling on the Lebanese state to support the
Central Bank and commercial banks, but rather to repay its debts and fulfill its
legal obligations to the Central Bank, thus allowing for the return of
depositors' funds,” it added.
It lamented that the draft law adopted a flawed approach by “immediately
burdening banks with non-performing assets instead of first reducing them from
the gap, as if its primary objective were to deplete bank capital, adopting
whatever dictates suited it from the International Monetary Fund, while
accounting standards (IFRS 9) and common sense dictate otherwise.”“If this
portion of deposits is non-performing, And it won't be recovered, so why burden
the banks with it?” ABL wondered. It accordingly called upon "all Lebanese, and
especially the esteemed Parliament, to take a free and courageous stance that
protects depositors first and the banking sector second.” “Everyone must
understand that there can be no economy without this sector, and no one should
delude themselves into thinking they can replace it as easily as they imagine,"
ABL warned.
Netanyahu discusses Iran, Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza in
security meeting
Naharnet/January 05/2026
The Israeli army is preparing for fighting on four fronts -- Iran, Yemen,
Lebanon and Gaza, an Israeli media report said. The report, published Monday in
Maariv, claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held Sunday a
security meeting that discussed Lebanon and the army's defense and attack
readiness on all fronts.The report said the meeting discussed "Hezbollah's
violations" south and north of the Litani river, with the army presenting
options for action against the Iran-backed group.
According to Israeli military sources, the Israeli army is currently working to
build operational capabilities in each of the four theaters. Among other things,
the Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and other branches are building target
banks in each of the theaters, with no prioritization of preparation for any of
them at this time.
EU chief von der Leyen to visit Lebanon this week
Agence France Presse/January 05/2026
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen will visit Syria later this week on a first trip
to the country since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a spokeswoman said Monday. Von
der Leyen will head to Syria as part of a tour of the Middle East that will also
see her visit Jordan and Lebanon, spokeswoman Paula Pinho said.
Lebanon Could Face ‘Indirect but Serious’ Fallout from
Venezuela, Warns Senior Official
This is Beirut/January 05/2026
A senior Lebanese official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the fallout
from Venezuela could have “indirect but serious consequences” for Lebanon,
particularly if pressure on Iran intensifies, according to Nidaa Al-Watan.
“The collapse or weakening of this axis does not stop at one country,” the
official stated. “If Iran is directly affected, Lebanon will inevitably feel the
impact.”The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military
operation has sent shockwaves far beyond Caracas, with Lebanese and regional
observers increasingly viewing the move as the opening phase of a broader
American strategy aimed at dismantling Iran-aligned networks worldwide,
including Hezbollah. In Beirut, the developments are being followed with growing
unease. Many Lebanese officials have so far refrained from issuing any formal
condemnation of the U.S. action, privately describing the events as an American
matter while emphasizing Lebanon’s delicate diplomatic position amid ongoing
contacts with Washington aimed at preventing further escalation with Israel.
Israeli Signals and Rising Pressure
The Venezuelan operation coincided with mounting Israeli rhetoric and military
signaling. Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set
to convene a high-level security meeting to discuss Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran,
with an emphasis on expanding operations against Hezbollah. Israeli officials
have also conveyed to United Nations representatives that efforts by the
Lebanese state and army to disarm Hezbollah remain insufficient, particularly
amid allegations that the group is seeking to rearm with Iranian assistance.
Inside Lebanon, the developments come as the government prepares to advance a
second phase of its plan to consolidate state control over weapons, following
partial implementation south of the Litani River. According to informed sources,
Hezbollah has signaled unwillingness to cooperate with disarmament efforts north
of the Litani, raising concerns that Lebanon could face renewed political,
economic, and financial pressure if progress stalls.
Energy Cooperation and Sanctions Evasion
Energy cooperation has been the backbone of the Iran-Venezuela partnership.
Iranian companies have played a central role in rehabilitating Venezuelan
refineries, supplying critical equipment, and restoring fuel production capacity
undermined by sanctions and years of mismanagement. Tehran has also provided
tanker support, refinery components, and technical expertise to sustain
Venezuela’s domestic fuel supply. U.S. officials have long argued that these
arrangements were not purely commercial, but part of a broader sanctions-evasion
architecture, one that enabled Iran and its allied networks, including
Hezbollah-linked financial structures, to generate revenue and logistical reach
far from the Middle East.
From Syria to Venezuela: A Familiar Pattern for Tehran
Iranian concern over the fate of its Venezuelan investments mirrors earlier
losses elsewhere. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria,
Tehran saw decades of economic, logistical, and real-estate investments erased,
losses Iranian officials and former lawmakers have estimated at tens of billions
of dollars. Venezuela had increasingly assumed a similar strategic role for Iran
in Latin America, serving as a platform for influence, access, and
alliance-building beyond Iran’s immediate neighborhood. The prospect of losing
that foothold is therefore viewed in Tehran not merely as a financial setback,
but as a significant geopolitical blow.
A Shifting Global Order
The unfolding events point to a shifting world order. Washington’s move against
Venezuela is increasingly seen as the opening phase of a wider campaign to
isolate Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah. The Trump administration is
moving decisively to confront and dismantle Iran’s global axis of influence,
from Latin America to the Middle East, while ongoing protests inside Iran
further weaken the foundations of the regime.Many analysts trace the inflection
point to October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched its unprecedented attack on
Israel, an event that triggered a cascade of strategic recalculations across the
Middle East and beyond. That moment was followed by a far more consequential
turning point: the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which dismantled a
central pillar of Iran’s regional architecture. The fall of Damascus not only
severed critical logistical, military, and financial corridors but also
accelerated the erosion of Iran’s ability to project power through allied
networks. While Iran’s influence is not the sole rationale behind the arrest of
Maduro, Washington has long accused the Venezuelan leadership of presiding over
a narco-state, citing allegations of large-scale drug trafficking, money
laundering, and cooperation with transnational criminal organizations. At the
same time, dismantling Iran’s broader power projection, including its regional
networks and nuclear ambitions, remains a crucial objective.
Lebanon Must Become Independent of Saudi Arabia Too
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/This
is Beirutt/January 05/2026
If Lebanon’s Shia are to finally divorce Iran and reclaim patriotism for
their nation, other sects must also place Lebanon’s national interests above the
diktats of foreign patrons. That means the Sunnis, the Christian Lebanese
Forces, and Walid Jumblatt’s Druze political bloc must end their humiliating
dependence on Saudi Arabia. For too long, Lebanon has suffered from the
interference of foreign powers in its affairs, forcing successive Lebanese
governments to serve outside interests instead of the needs of its citizens.
In 2005, after three decades of dominance by Syria’s Assad dynasty, Islamist
Iran took over Lebanon and kept it on war footing with Israel, crashing the
country’s economy and dragging it into two destructive conflicts. Assad and Iran
have not been alone in their tutelage of Lebanon. Saudi Arabia, too, has been
acting like a big brother, conditioning its support for Lebanon on it becoming a
satellite state.
Just as the Lebanese ejected Assad, and just as Israel crushed—and is still
eradicating—pro-Iran Hezbollah, Lebanese politicians on Saudi Arabia’s payroll
must be named and blamed. The Lebanese state should stop begging the kingdom for
largesse with more strings attached than aid provided.
Since 1993, Saudi Arabia has donated a total of $2.7 billion, a sum dwarfed by
the $9.5 billion in aid that the United States has provided to Lebanon over the
same period. Since 2019 alone, Washington has given $3.5 billion.
By contrast, the Saudi government money seems to have dried up since the
accession of King Salman to power in 2015, with aid dropping down to a trickle
and standing at less than $60 million.
To be sure, Saudi Arabia keeps waving its checkbook to motivate the Lebanese to
follow its instructions, mainly the disarmament of Hezbollah. In 2016, Riyadh
walked back a $3 billion pledge to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to punish
Beirut for its complicity with the pro-Iran militia. Since then, Saudi Arabia
has imposed another set of conditions for any aid money: reform. At times, the
kingdom seems to be using these conditions as an excuse to withhold support,
rather than as an incentive for Lebanon to pursue disarmament and administrative
reforms.
For its $56 million since 2016, Saudi Arabia has inexplicably continued to
behave as the big brother with a mandate over Lebanon’s decisions, especially on
foreign policy. Riyadh has its own Lebanon Czar, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, who
has become the counterpart of America’s envoys to Beirut. While the U.S. pays
for a seat at the table, Saudi Arabia occupies it for free.
The Saudi role in Lebanon is also problematic because it favors and sponsors
political parties and politicians. WikiLeaks revealed Saudi internal
correspondence in which the Lebanese Forces begged Riyadh for money, saying that
the party could not even fund protection for its chief, Samir Geagea, who
survived a Hezbollah attempt on his life. Since then, Riyadh seems to have
bankrolled Geagea’s party and his electoral campaigns. Druze chief Walid
Jumblatt is also known for imploring the Saudis for financial rewards in return
for toeing Riyadh’s line, not only on Lebanese affairs but also regional ones.
Saudi Arabia is known as the whip of the Sunni bloc in Lebanon. Prime minister
hopefuls, even ones wealthy enough to fund their own political operations and
campaigns, believe that their ambitions require Saudi acquiescence and act
accordingly. Yet there is no reason that Saudi Arabia has automatic sway over
Lebanon’s Sunnis. In the 2025 municipal elections, because Qatar has been more
generous, its candidates wiped out their Saudi rivals, who lost the
predominantly Sunni north and barely survived the onslaught in Beirut.
And for its $56 million since 2016, Riyadh—like Iran—has dictated Lebanon’s
policy on peace with Israel. While Iran wants Lebanon to join the axis that
pledges to annihilate Israel, Saudi Arabia wants Lebanon to toe the line of its
Arab Peace Initiative, dead on arrival since the two-state solution it calls for
would produce two states, both with a majority Arab population.
Even after Israel decisively crippled Hezbollah, creating a historic opening for
Lebanon to negotiate direct bilateral peace with Israel, Saudi Arabia stubbornly
dragged it back—shackling Beirut's ambitions to Riyadh's failing Arab Peace
Initiative, a plan hopelessly tied to the Palestinians somehow forming a
unified, representative government, something no realistic observer expects in
our lifetime.
Any economist worth their salt will tell you: a bilateral peace deal with Israel
would deliver a transformative boost to Lebanon's economy—generating growth,
investment, and trade that could finally free the country from reliance on
foreign aid, including the crumbs it still begs from Riyadh.
Instead of pursuing direct peace with Israel—a deal that would flood Lebanon's
treasury with revenue and fund its own army, reconstruction, and economic
revival—Beirut chose to cling to Saudi Arabia's doomed, elusive plan, endlessly
begging Riyadh to revive its long-withdrawn $3 billion pledge.
With Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit having ballooned to $65 billion in 2025 and
projected at around $44 billion for 2026 amid strained finances, it's highly
unlikely the kingdom could spare a single billion—let alone three—for the LAF.
Yet Saudi Arabia and cash-strapped France are planning a conference on LAF
funding, likely savoring the photo ops and publicity, all on the U.S. taxpayer's
dime that props up the Lebanese state.
Just like the Assad regime and Iran were ejected from Lebanon, Saudi Arabia’s
role must be ended. This, however, is not a call for severing ties with the
kingdom, but for treating it as a peer, not as a big brother with mandate power.
When the Lebanese start thinking big, the world will see them as consequential.
If they continue acting as mercenaries for Iran or Saudi Arabia, they will be
seen as forfeiting their agency. Lebanon’s independence and sovereignty are a
Lebanese decision that should always serve the country’s national interests.
There should be no shame in being selfish and arrogant in patriotism.
Syria and Lebanon: Who Is Moving Forward in 2026?
Salam El Zaatari/This is Beirut/January 05/2026
Entering 2026, Syria and Lebanon stand at an inflection point along the region’s
active fault line. While both nations shook off paralysis at roughly the same
time a year ago, neither has become truly stable. What separates them is the
nature of the risks they face in the near and medium-term as the Middle East
undergoes uneasy post-war realignments. Syria’s transition was more historic
than Lebanon’s, with the fall of the regime in December 2024 ending decades of
the Assad family’s authoritarian rule and effectively ending a prolonged civil
war. Under interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s new authorities moved
quickly to consolidate control through a transitional constitutional framework,
a multi-year political roadmap, diplomatic re-engagement, and public signals of
minority inclusion, steps followed by U.S. and EU sanctions relief. Refugee
returns and renewed regional ties have marked a visible break from Syria’s long
isolation. Yet Syria’s core challenge is whether it can achieve stability
without repeating the exclusionary practices of the Assad era. Power remains
concentrated, and institutions are still embryonic. Political legitimacy,
meanwhile, is uneven across the country’s regions and communities. The state’s
effective reach is challenged by localized reprisals and sectarian violence,
Israeli military actions, unresolved Kurdish autonomy, and the lingering threat
of extremist remnants.
While these challenges and risks are not unusual for a country in transition
from authoritarianism, they are made more consequential by Syria’s vast
reconstruction needs. Investor confidence in the country is fragile and
institutional failures would have regional consequences. Lebanon’s trajectory
has been narrower, less dramatic, and deliberately incomplete. Joseph Aoun’s
election as president in January 2025 ended a prolonged constitutional vacuum
and restored basic executive function under a government led by Nawaf Salam. The
process was an institutional reboot rather than a systemic reset. It reopened
channels of decision-making, diplomacy, and conditional reform, but left intact
the political order that produced Lebanon's economic collapse and paralysis.
This distinction matters because while Lebanon’s institutions are once again
functioning, their credibility remains damaged. Public trust in the financial
system is still shattered, depositor losses remain unresolved, and efforts for
reforms face entrenched resistance. History offers no guarantee that this moment
will prove any less fleeting than previous Lebanese “resets.” What makes
Lebanon’s current trajectory different is an alignment of international
leverage, conditional aid, and internal security shifts that, for now, are
pointing in the same direction.
Lebanon holds its clearest advantage over Syria in terms of security, though
this issue is far from settled. Hezbollah entered 2025 weakened by war and
strategically constrained by the fall of Assad, which disrupted the
organization’s supply lines. The Lebanese state has not dismantled Hezbollah,
nor fully imposed a monopoly of arms, but it has begun treating sovereignty as
an operational policy rather than a rhetorical red line. All of this remains
reversible. Hezbollah retains social depth and adaptive capacity, while Israel’s
military pressure on Lebanon remains a destabilizing wildcard. Still, the
balance between state authority and non-state power has moved enough to change
international calculations about Lebanon’s viability.
Economically, neither country is close to recovery, but Lebanon’s path is more
viable. The government has taken politically costly steps toward banking
restructuring and fiscal transparency, aligning itself, however imperfectly,
with IMF conditions and Gulf expectations. Lebanon’s financial architecture is
badly damaged, but it exists, is internationally legible, and can absorb
pressure and assistance if reforms continue. Syria, by contrast, faces a
reconstruction burden an order of magnitude larger, even after sanctions relief,
with weaker legal safeguards and far higher security risks.
Socially, Syria’s transition carries deeper historical meaning. The end of
Assad’s rule freed decades of suppressed memories, trauma, and political speech.
Refugee returns and public reckoning reflect a genuine psychological break with
the past. But this openness has also exposed unresolved grievances, which are
surfacing in the absence of strong mediating institutions. Lebanon’s society,
shaped by exhaustion, has prioritized survival and basic stability over
transformation, producing fewer moments of catharsis, but also fewer internal
shocks during the country’s transition.
By any sober assessment, neither country has “arrived.” Syria has achieved
transformative change without yet stabilizing its state. Lebanon has achieved
institutional restoration without yet transforming its system. In a region
edging toward uneasy peace deals and post-conflict realignments, stability—not
symbolism—determines which countries move ahead first.
An Appeal from Former
Minister Youssef Salameh to President Trump: We Hope the U.S. Under Your
Leadership—As the Strongest Nation—Will Adopt the Culture of Mandate Rather than
Occupation
January 5, 2026
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/150823/
The President of the "Identity and Sovereignty" Movement, former Minister
Youssef Salameh, addressed the following appeal to President Donald Trump:
Honorable President Donald Trump,
You preside over the most powerful nation in the world. Because it is the
strongest, it has a duty to sponsor the world's path and correct its course. For
these reasons, I appeal to you—as a Lebanese citizen active across the nation in
its service, seeking its stability, and searching for a peace that has been lost
within it; and as a friend of the United States, albeit from one side and for
various reasons too numerous to mention now.
I appeal to you to say: the world is searching for a savior to establish a
culture of peace that the peoples of the earth deserve and may enjoy, from East
to West and North to South. The culture of mandate differs fundamentally from
the culture of occupation, and distinguishing between them is both a duty and a
necessity.
A Mandate, Mr. President, is undertaken by the stronger, more competent, and
more mature party to help weak or underdeveloped nations build and develop their
individual and national identities. Occupation, however, is carried out by the
powerful who are thirsty to marginalize others and confiscate their rights,
which only sows the seeds for new wars when circumstances change.
In this context, we hope the United States during your term—as the strongest
power—will adopt the culture of mandate instead of occupation to address the
existential crises facing underdeveloped nations. This would involve
contributing to the development of national identity among their peoples and
ensuring a fair distribution of wealth in exchange for a rightful and just
percentage for the U.S., rather than committing to a culture of occupation. The
latter inevitably creates a climate of chaos that eventually leads to new wars
spanning the entire globe.
Mr. President Donald Trump,
I belong to a land whose sons invented the alphabet and set sail from their
shores to spread it to the world; a land once trodden by the feet of Christ,
whom you and we both worship. I belong to a city that founded the first law
school when the world lived in desolate estrangement and absolute ignorance. I
belong to a homeland that helped found the United Nations and draft the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
I am the founder and president of an independent political movement comprising
elites from all of Lebanon's sects and denominations. We operate across the
country under the banner of "Identity and Sovereignty," and our members’ hands
have never been tainted by the sanctity of blood or illicit funds.
Despite this history rich in values, knowledge, and achievements—and despite the
modest struggle of some, of which we in the "Identity and Sovereignty" movement
are a part—my country has suffered for more than half a century from successive
crises. These have exposed, and continue to expose, Lebanon to an existential
threat touching the very borders of the state, its religious diversity, its
civilized depth, its cultural richness, and its social fabric.
These crises were caused by overwhelming regional and external circumstances,
interacting with the instincts of some Lebanese whose national loyalty was
divided. They failed to understand the message their ancestors carried for
generations and hesitated to carry the banner of total peace in the region and
the world. Instead, they invested their foreign allegiances into pressuring and
paralyzing the state. Consequently, for over sixty years, the state hesitated
and eventually surrendered to their instincts and ignorance, leading Lebanon to
pay a heavy price for this indecision.
For all these reasons—and because it is unreasonable for a shepherd to wait for
the wolves' permission to defend his flock, and because you have established
yourself as the effective reference and the shepherd entrusted with spreading
peace among the peoples of the earth (even by force if understanding is
impossible)—I appeal to you.
I appeal in the name of the hungry, the suffering, and the downtrodden among my
countrymen; in the name of the victims of an authority that failed to protect
their lives from security chaos, their money in banks from the greed of the
powerful and corrupt, their property from the arrogance of the influential, or
their dignity by holding accountable those who violated their rights.
Mr. President,
I take the liberty to urge you to look toward Lebanon with the eye of one
concerned for its existence and the interests of its people. Fate has willed
that a part of your own family has chosen to see the world through the shade of
Lebanon's cedars and rest on its shores, sharing loyalty between Lebanon and her
mother country, as a mother to a Lebanese child who dreams of a warm future in
its lands. It is your destiny, Mr. President, to be the sponsor of my country’s
resurrection. Help it directly to be liberated from both external and internal
occupations—noting that the saying "the injustice of kin is more painful"
applies heavily to us. Mr. President, I am full of hope that you will respond to
my call. The salvation of Lebanon is an inevitable destiny, yet after the rights
of the people and the concepts of justice have been violated on its soil, it can
now only be achieved through the power of the Almighty [and the capable].
Thank you.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on January
05-06/2026
Video-Link from New York Post Youtube Platform/ Interview with Iran’s Crown
Exiled Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi/
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/01/150818/
Says he’s ready to lead a transitional government toward democracy in Iran.
Called Regime ‘Weakest Ever’ in May Interview — Now Calls on Iranians to Protest
January 05/2026
Netanyahu says Israel won’t let Iran restore ballistic missile program
AFP/January 05/2026
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that Israel would not allow
arch-foe Iran to restore its ballistic missile program, just days after US
President Donald Trump issued a similar threat. “We will not allow Iran to
restore its ballistic missile industry, and certainly we will not allow it renew
the nuclear program that we significantly damaged,” Netanyahu told lawmakers.
“If we are attacked, the consequences for Iran will be very severe,” he said.
Netanyahu’s threat comes days after Trump threatened to “eradicate” Iran’s
nuclear and ballistic missile program, after the two leaders met in Washington
last week. Israeli officials and media have expressed concern in recent months
that Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile arsenal after it was damaged
during the 12-day war with Israel in June. Trump said Iran “may be behaving
badly” and was looking at new nuclear sites to replace those targeted by US
strikes during the same conflict, as well as restoring its missile stockpiles.“I
hope they’re not trying to build up again because if they are, we’re going have
no choice but very quickly to eradicate that buildup,” Trump said, adding that
the US response “may be more powerful than the last time.”But Trump said he
believed Iran was still interested in a deal with Washington on its nuclear and
missile program. Tehran denies that it is seeking nuclear weapons. Netanyahu,
meanwhile, said the protests in Iran had “expanded greatly.”“It is very possible
that we are at a decisive moment – a moment when the Iranian people will take
their destiny into their own hands,” he said in parliament. Protests erupted in
Iran on December 28 when shopkeepers in the capital Tehran staged a strike over
high prices and economic stagnation. They have since spread to other cities and
expanded to include political demands. On Sunday, Netanyahu said that Israel
stood in solidarity with the Iranian people during the ongoing
demonstrations.“We stand in solidarity with the struggle of the Iranian people
and with their aspirations for freedom, liberty and justice,” Netanyahu said at
the weekly cabinet meeting.
Delcy Rodriguez formally
sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president
Reuters/January 05/2026
Venezuela’s vice president and oil minister Delcy Rodriguez was formally sworn
in on Monday as the country’s interim president, as US-deposed President
Nicolas Maduro appeared in a New York court on drug charges, after the Trump
administration removed him from power in a dramatic weekend military action.
Rodriguez, a 56-year-old labor lawyer known for close connections to the private
sector and her devotion to the ruling party, was sworn in by her brother
Jorge, who is the head of the national assembly legislature. Also sworn in on
Monday were 283 lawmakers elected last May. Just a small number of are classed
as opposition – most of the opposition, especially the faction directed by
Nobel Prize winner Machado, boycotted the contest. The only lawmaker not in
attendance was first lady Cilia Flores, who is in US custody.
Ousted Maduro pleads not guilty to US narcotics charges
Reuters/January 05/2026
Toppled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro pleaded not guilty on Monday to
narcotics charges after President Donald Trump’s stunning capture of him rattled
world leaders and left officials in Caracas scrambling to respond.
Maduro, 63, pleaded innocent in New York federal court to four criminal counts:
narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy and possession of machine guns
and destructive devices. “I am innocent. I am not guilty. I am a decent man. I
am still president of my country,” Maduro said through an interpreter, before
being cut off by US District Judge Alvin Hellerstein. Maduro’s wife Cilia Flores
also pleaded not guilty. The next court date was set for March 17. Dozens of
protesters, both pro- and anti-Maduro, gathered outside the courthouse before
the half-hour hearing.
Accusations of cocaine-trafficking
Maduro is accused of overseeing a cocaine-trafficking network that partnered
with violent groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa and Zetas cartels, Colombian FARC
rebels and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang. Maduro has long denied the
allegations, saying they were a mask for imperialist designs on Venezuela’s rich
oil reserves. Trump has made no secret of wanting to share in Venezuela’s oil
riches. US oil companies’ shares jumped on Monday, fueled by the prospect of
access to its vast reserves. While world leaders and US politicians grappled
with the extraordinary seizure of a head of state, an emergency order in
Venezuela, published in full on Monday, ordered police to search and capture
anyone who supported Saturday’s US attack. At the United Nations, the Security
Council debated the implications of the raid, which was condemned by Russia,
China and leftist allies of Venezuela.
UN chief Antonio Guterres raised concerns about instability in Venezuela and the
legality of Trump’s strike, the most dramatic US intervention in Latin America
since the 1989 Panama invasion. US Special Forces swooped into Caracas by
helicopter on Saturday, shattered his security cordon and dragged him from the
threshold of a safe room. On Monday morning, Maduro – his hands zip-tied – and
his wife were escorted by armed guards in tactical gear from a Brooklyn
detention center to a helicopter bound for the Manhattan federal court.
The judge began the hearing at 12:02 p.m. (1702 GMT) by summarizing the charges
in the indictment. Maduro, in orange and beige prison garb, listened on
headphones through an interpreter. Hellerstein asked Maduro to stand and confirm
his identity. He replied in Spanish. The judge told the couple of their right to
inform the Venezuelan consulate of their arrests.
Prosecutors say Maduro has been involved in drug trafficking from the time he
began serving in Venezuela’s National Assembly in 2000 to his tenure as foreign
minister and subsequent 2013 election as the late president Hugo Chavez’s
successor.
Maduro lawyer Barry Pollack said he anticipated voluminous and complex
litigation over what he called his client’s “military abduction.” He said Maduro
was not requesting his release but may later. Flores’s lawyer, Mark Donnelly,
said she sustained significant injuries including severe bruising on her ribs
and asked that she be provided X-rays and a physical evaluation. Federal
prosecutors in New York first indicted Maduro in 2020 as part of a long-running
narcotics trafficking case against current and former Venezuelan officials and
Colombian guerrillas. An updated indictment made public on Saturday added some
new details and co-defendants, including Cilia Flores. The US has considered
Maduro an illegitimate dictator since he declared victory in a 2018 election
marred by allegations of massive irregularities.
Experts in international law have questioned the legality of the raid, with
some condemning Trump’s actions as a repudiation of a rules-based international
order.
Trump asserts oil aspirations
In Caracas, senior officials from Maduro’s 13-year-old government remain in
charge of the South American oil producer of 30 million people, first spitting
defiance then pivoting to possible cooperation with the Trump administration.
American oil companies will return to Venezuela and rebuild the sector’s
infrastructure, Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “We’re taking
back what they stole,” Trump said. “We’re in charge.”However, four oil industry
executives said the Trump administration did not consult major US companies
Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N) or Chevron Corp (CVX.N), before or
after US forces seized Maduro. US oil executives were expected to meet Trump
administration officials on the Venezuela plan, an oil industry source said.
Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves – about 303 billion barrels – but
the sector has long been in decline from mismanagement, under-investment and US
sanctions, averaging 1.1 million bpd output last year, a third of its 1970s
heyday.
After first denouncing Maduro’s capture as a colonial oil-grab and “kidnapping,”
Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, softened her stance on Sunday,
saying it was a priority to have respectful relations with Washington.
“We invite the US government to work together on an agenda of cooperation,”
Rodriguez said. “President Donald Trump, our peoples and our region deserve
peace and dialogue, not war.”Trump has threatened another strike if Venezuela
does not cooperate with opening its oil industry and stopping drugs. Trump also
threatened Colombia and Mexico on Sunday and said Cuba’s communist government
“looks like it’s ready to fall.”Just how the US would work with a post-Maduro
government, full of sworn ideological enemies, is unclear. Trump appears to have
sidelined for now the Venezuelan opposition, where many anti-Maduro activists
had assumed this would be their moment. Rodriguez, daughter of a leftist
guerrilla who has been praised as a “tigress” by Maduro, is also known as a
pragmatist with good connections in the private sector and a belief in economic
orthodoxy. Washington’s allies, most of whom did not recognize Maduro as
president due to vote-rigging allegations, have been more muted, stressing the
need for dialogue and adherence to law. Trump’s raid has created a political
storm in the US, with opposition Democrats saying they were misled. Secretary of
State Marco Rubio was due to brief top lawmakers later on Monday. One in three
Americans approve of the strike on Venezuela that toppled the country’s
president and 72 percent worry the US will become too involved in the South
American country, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded on Monday.
While a handful of conservative figures have criticized the Venezuela operation
as a betrayal of Trump’s “America First” pledge to avoid foreign entanglements,
most supporters have largely praised it as a swift, painless win. Inside
Venezuela, Maduro opponents have kept celebrations on hold as his allies remain
in power and there is no sign of the military turning against them, even though
many suspect some insiders helped in Saturday’s operation.
Trump says Cuba 'ready to fall,' threatens Colombia after
Venezuela attack
Joey Garrison/USA TODAY/January 5, 2026
WASHINGTON ‒ President Donald Trump predicted Cuba's communist government is on
the verge of collapse following the United States' capture of Venezuelan
President Nicolás Maduro. Trump on Jan. 4 also threatened United States military
intervention to oust Colombian President Gustavo Petro and reaffirmed his desire
for the United States to annex Greenland, which is controlled by Denmark. Trump
suggested Venezuela won't be the only Latin American country to face upheaval as
he addressed reporters on Air Force One on the flight back to Washington from
Florida, where he spent the holidays. "Cuba is ready to fall," Trump said. "Cuba
looks like it's ready to fall. I don't know if they're going to hold out. But
Cuba now has no income. They got all of their income from their Venezuela, from
the Venezuelan oil. They're not getting any of it. And Cuba is literally ready
to fall."
Trump added: "You have a lot of great Cuban Americans who are going to be very
happy about this." A recent blockade the Trump administration imposed on
Venezuela oil cut Cuba off to a critical energy supply that the island nation
relies on. Trump has said U.S. companies will soon take over Venezuela's oil
supplies following the capture of Maduro, a close ally of the Cuban government.
Several Cubans died during the U.S. attack on Venezuela that led to Maduro's
capture. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a key
architect of the Venezuela attack, is a longtime critic of the Cuban government
led by President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who condemned the U.S. actions in Venezuela.
More: Marco Rubio, who dreamed of ousting Venezuela's Maduro, takes charge.
Rubio issued a warning to Cuba in a Jan. 3 news conference as Trump and his top
officials discussed the Venezuelan attack. "If I lived in Havana and I was in
the government, I would be concerned ‒ at least a little bit," Rubio said.
'Sounds good to me,' Trump says of US operation in Colombia
As for Colombia, led by the leftist Petro, Trump said the country is "run by a
sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States." "He's
not going to be doing it very long ‒ let me tell you," Trump said. Asked whether
the U.S. will conduct an operation in Colombia, Trump said: "Sounds good to me."
Petro, in response to Trump's threat, issued a lengthy statement on X: "If you
arrest the president whom a good part of my people want and respect, you will
unleash the popular jaguar.""Every soldier of Colombia has an order from now on:
every commander of the public force who prefers the flag of the US to the flag
of Colombia must immediately withdraw from the institution by order of the bases
and the troops and mine," Petro said.
Trump: 'Let's talk about Greenland in 20 days'
In a 37-minute exchange with reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump also made
clear that he wants the U.S. to acquire Greenland – an idea he's pushed
throughout the first year of his return to the White House. "We’ll worry about
Greenland in about two months," Trump said with a smile after saying he's
focused for now on Venezuela. "Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days.""I will
say this about Greenland," Trump added. "We need Greenland from a national
security situation. It's so strategic. Right now, Greenland is covered with
Russian and Chinese ships all over the place. We need Greenland from the
standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it. I
can tell you."Mette Frederiksen, president of Denmark, in a statement urged
Trump to "stop the threats against a historically close ally," saying the U.S.
"has no right to annex one of the three countries in the Commonwealth." "The
Kingdom of Denmark - and thus Greenland - is part of NATO and is therefore
covered by the alliance's security guarantee," Frederiksen said. "We already
have a defense agreement between the Kingdom and the United States today that
gives the United States wide access to Greenland. And we, on the part of the
Kingdom, have invested significantly in security in the Arctic."
Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump says Cuba is 'ready to
fall' after Venezuela attack
Colombian president ready to 'take up arms' in face of
Trump threats
Euronews/January 5, 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro said on Monday he would "take up arms" in
response to threats from US President Donald Trump, after the Delta Force-led
operation resulted in the capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro over the
weekend.
Petro, a former guerrilla fighter who has faced months of harsh comments from
Trump, wrote on X: "I swore not to touch a weapon again ... but for the homeland
I will take up arms again."Trump said over the weekend that Petro should "watch
his *ss" and called Colombia's leftist president "a sick man who likes making
cocaine and selling it to the United States." Petro's M-19 urban guerrilla group
disarmed under a 1989 peace agreement. He has traded barbs with Trump since the
US president's return to the White House in January. Petro has criticised the US
military deployment in the Caribbean, which began with strikes on alleged
narcoboats, expanded to seizing Venezuelan oil tankers, then culminated in
Saturday's raid on Caracas to capture President Nicolás Maduro. Trump accused
Petro of involvement in drug trafficking without providing evidence and imposed
financial sanctions on him and his family. Washington also removed Colombia from
its list of countries certified as allies in the US war on drugs. In a lengthy
message on X, Petro defended his anti-narcotics policy but stressed limits on
military aggression. "If you bomb even one of these groups without sufficient
intelligence, you will kill many children," he wrote. "If you bomb peasants,
thousands will turn into guerrillas in the mountains. And if you detain the
president, whom a good part of my people love and respect, you will unleash the
popular jaguar," meaning, the Colombian people. The Trump administration
maintains close ties with Colombia's right-wing opposition, which hopes to win
legislative and presidential elections this year.
Iran’s leaders struggle to end protests, US action in
Venezuela stokes fears
Reuters/January 05/2026
Iran’s efforts to quell a wave of anti-government protests have been complicated
by Donald Trump’s threat to intervene on their side, a warning firmly underlined
by the subsequent US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, officials and
insiders said on Monday. A day before US special forces seized Maduro and his
wife on January 3 and whisked them off to New York, the US president warned in a
social media post that if Iran’s leadership killed protesters who have taken to
the streets since December 28 the US “will come to their rescue.” At least 17
people have died so far. Tehran’s options have been limited by Trump’s threats
and a long-running economic crisis that deepened after Israel, joined by the US,
launched strikes on the Islamic Republic in June in a 12-day war that pummeled
several of Iran’s nuclear sites. “These twin pressures have narrowed Tehran’s
room for maneuver, leaving leaders caught between public anger on the streets
and hardening demands and threats from Washington, with few viable options and
high risks on every path,” one Iranian official told Reuters. The view was
echoed by two other officials and a former Iranian official who remains close
to Iran’s decision makers. All of them asked not to be identified due to the
sensitivity of the situation. A second official said that, after US action in
Venezuela, some of the authorities feared Iran could be “the next victim of
Trump’s aggressive foreign policy.”Iran’s economy has been hammered by years of
US sanctions, but its rial has been in freefall since last year’s Israeli-US
strikes that mainly targeted nuclear sites, where the West says Tehran has been
working on nuclear arms. Iran denies this. The protests that erupted in Tehran
and which have spread to some cities in western and southern Iran do not match
the scale of unrest that swept the nation in 2022-23 over the death of Mahsa
Amini, who died in the custody of Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating
the hijab law.
But, even if smaller, these protests have quickly expanded from an economic
focus to broader frustrations, with some protesters chanting “Down with the
Islamic Republic” or “Death to the dictator” – a reference to Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei who has the final say in all state matters. That presents a challenge
for the authorities which have been trying to maintain and nurture the spirit of
national unity that emerged during and after the Israeli-US strikes. A third
official said worries were growing in Tehran that “Trump or Israel might take
military action against Iran, like what they did in June.”
Iran is longtime ally of Venezuela
Iran, which has for years allied itself with fellow oil producer Venezuela,
which like Iran has suffered under years of US sanctions, has condemned
Washington’s action in Caracas. It has also condemned Trump’s statements about
Iran. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said such statements
about “Iran’s internal affairs amount, under international norms, to nothing
more than incitement to violence, incitement to terrorism, and incitement to
killing.”On Friday, Trump threatened to intervene if protesters faced violence,
declaring, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” though he offered no
details on what actions he might take. The protests threaten what has long been
Khamenei’s defining priority: preserving the Islamic Republic at any cost. In a
sign of the leadership’s concern, Khamenei on Saturday accused “enemies of the
Islamic Republic” of fomenting unrest and warned that “rioters should be put in
their place.”Authorities have attempted to maintain a dual approach to the
unrest, saying protests over the economy are legitimate and will be met by
dialogue, while meeting some demonstrations with tear gas amid violent street
confrontations.However, at least 17 people have been killed in a week, rights
groups said on Sunday. Authorities have said at least two members of the
security services had died and more than a dozen were injured in the unrest.
The country’s clerical establishment is still coming to terms with the 2025
Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets. The attacks,
which killed top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and nuclear
scientists, were launched just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with
Washington over Tehran’s disputed nuclear program. Negotiations have stalled
since the June conflict, even as both sides insist they remain open to a deal.
Washington and its allies accuse Iran of using its nuclear program as cover to
develop weapons capability, a charge Tehran denies, saying its ambitions are
purely peaceful. Economic grievances remain at the heart of latest unrest.
Widening disparities between ordinary Iranians and a privileged clerical and
security elite, compounded by mismanagement, runaway inflation and corruption –
factors even acknowledged by state media – have fueled public anger. Witnesses
in Tehran, Mashhad and Tabriz reported a heavy security presence in main
squares. “You can feel the tense atmosphere in Tehran, but life continues as
normal,” said Amir Reza, 47, a carpet shop owner in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged dialogue and promised reforms to stabilize
the monetary and banking systems and protect purchasing power. Starting January
10, the government will provide a monthly stipend of 10,000,000 rials per person
(about $7) in non-cashable electronic credit for use in select grocery stores,
the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
For lower-income households, whose monthly salaries barely exceed $150, the
measure represents a modest but meaningful boost. The rial lost roughly half
its value against the dollar in 2025, while official inflation reached 42.5
percent in December.
Eyeing its own security,
Europe muted as Trump ousts Venezuela’s Maduro
AFP/January 05/2026
European leaders have given a low-key response to US President Donald Trump’s
military intervention in Venezuela as they seek to avoid riling him on other
critical issues -- from Ukraine to Greenland. After American troops captured
strongman Nicolas Maduro in a jaw-dropping blitz on Caracas, leaders across the
Atlantic largely refused to condemn a move seen by critics as trampling on
Venezuela’s sovereignty. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the operation
legally “complex”, and British premier Keir Starmer said it was a “fast-moving
situation.”All stressed the need to uphold “international law” -- but no one was
shedding tears for the toppling of Maduro, an ally of Russia who the EU viewed
as illegitimate after disputed elections in 2024. “These events create the
opportunity for a democratic transition in Venezuela,” EU spokeswoman Paula
Pinho said on Monday, sidestepping commenting on Trump’s insistence Washington
will now run Venezuela. Spanish Premier Pedro Sanchez -- whose country has deep
ties to Latin America -- sounded a rare harsh note by saying the intervention
“violates international law.”But that was as far as anyone was willing to go as
Europe frets about keeping Trump onside in fraught negotiations over Ukraine.
“We have our problems elsewhere and like it or not, realistically we need the US
involvement,” one EU diplomat told AFP, talking as others on condition of
anonymity. “Having a tough statement to defend Maduro is not in our collective
interest.”The intervention in Venezuela comes as Europe has desperately been
trying to mold Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Kyiv’s backers
are hoping Trump will give solid security guarantees to Ukraine as he pressures
the country to give up territory for a deal. European leaders are set to hold a
summit in Paris on Tuesday to try to firm up the plans and could meet with Trump
later this month.
“No US, no security guarantees,” said one EU official.
Greenland fears
While European diplomats concede they don’t have much sway over Washington’s
push to dominate Latin America, far more worrying would be if an emboldened
Trump goes after another prize: Greenland. As he basked in the successful
operation to capture Maduro the mercurial leader repeated his desire to take
control of the autonomous territory of EU and NATO member Denmark. “We need
Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to
be able to do it,” Trump told journalists. That came despite Danish Prime
Minister Mette Frederiksen calling on Washington to stop “threatening” its
territory. The EU and Britain insisted they stood by Denmark and Greenland. But
even on this issue Europe appeared keen to avoid a confrontation. “We must
appease Trump, not poke the beast,” said another EU diplomat. “There’s nothing
we can do, and Trump knows it.” While few expect Trump to repeat the aggressive
tactics in Greenland, analysts said the US powerplay in Venezuela already boded
ill for Europe’s efforts to cling to a rules-based world order. “One of the
byproducts of action of this kind is a legitimizing effect on the ability of
great powers to reshape things in ways they want in their neighborhood,” said
Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund think tank. “That could apply for Taiwan.
It could apply in Ukraine or Moldova. Basically, it creates a systemic problem.”
Meanwhile experts from the European Council on Foreign Relations insisted that
Europe would eventually face a decision on standing up to Trump. “Europeans face
a choice: accommodate or resist Washington’s ambitions. Either path carries
costs,” the think tank said. “The question is not whether Europe can avoid
friction with the US, but whether it is willing to defend its own interests when
the challenge comes from its most powerful ally.”
Maduro son vows
unconditional support for interim leader Rodriguez
AFP/January 05/2026
A lawmaker son of deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on Monday expressed
his unconditional support for interim president Delcy Rodriguez, who had served
as his father’s deputy. “To you, Delcy Eloina, my unconditional support for the
very hard task you’ve been given. Count on me...,” Nicolas Maduro Guerra told an
opening session of parliament after the weekend toppling of his father in a US
military raid. “The homeland is in good hands, dad, and soon we’ll embrace here
in Venezuela,” Maduro Guerra added, choking back tears.
UN chief Guterres raises
concerns about instability in Venezuela, legality of US operation
AFP/January 05/2026
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres raised concerns on Monday
about a possible intensification of instability in Venezuela after the US
capture of the Latin American country’s president Nicolas Maduro. The 15-member
Security Council met at UN headquarters in New York just hours before Maduro was
due to appear in a Manhattan federal court on drug charges including narco-terrorism
conspiracy. Maduro has denied any criminal involvement. “I am deeply concerned
about the possible intensification of instability in the country, the potential
impact on the region, and the precedent it may set for how relations between and
among states are conducted,” Guterres said in a statement delivered to the
council by UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo. Guterres called on all
Venezuelan actors to engage in an inclusive and democratic dialogue, adding: “I
welcome and am ready to support all efforts aimed at assisting Venezuelans in
finding a peaceful way forward.” He also expressed concern that the US operation
to capture Maduro in Caracas on Saturday did not respect the rules of
international law.
‘Act of aggression’
Colombia, which requested Monday’s meeting, condemned the US operation as a
clear violation of the sovereignty, political independence and territorial
integrity of Venezuela. “There is no justification whatsoever, under any
circumstances, for the unilateral use of force to commit an act of
aggression,” Colombian UN Ambassador Leonor Zalabata Torres told the council.
“Such actions constitute a serious violation of international law and the
United Nations Charter.”Legal experts have said the US operation was illegal
because it lacked UN Security Council authorization, did not have Venezuelan
consent and did not constitute self-defense against an armed attack. But the
United States cannot be held accountable for any violation by the UN Security
Council, which is charged with maintaining international peace and security.
The United States wields a veto - along with Russia, China, Britain and France -
so it can block any action. The founding UN Charter states that members “shall
refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against
the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.” There are
currently 193 members of the United Nations. US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz
on Sunday cited Article 51 of the UN Charter, which says that nothing “shall
impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed
attack occurs against a member of the United Nations.”Trump has threatened
another strike if Venezuela does not cooperate with opening its oil industry and
stopping the flow of drugs. Trump also threatened Colombia and Mexico, and said
Cuba’s communist government “looks like it’s ready to fall.”
Trump’s Venezuela oil
revival plan is a $100 bln gamble
Bloomberg/January 05/2026
Realizing President Donald Trump’s plan for a US-led revival of Venezuela’s
beleaguered oil industry could be a years-long and challenging process costing
upwards of $100 billion. Years of corruption, underinvestment, fires and thefts
have left the nation’s crude infrastructure in tatters. Rebuilding it enough to
lift Venezuela’s output back to its peak levels of the 1970s would require
companies to invest about $10 billion per year over the next decade, said
Francisco Monaldi, director of Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s
Baker Institute for Public Policy. That’s equivalent to more than a third of
what Exxon Mobil — the largest US oil company — has budgeted this year for
capital expenditures around the entire globe. Subscribe to the Bloomberg
Daybreak Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other Podcast Platforms. “A faster
recovery would require even more investment,” Monaldi said. Venezuela sits atop
the world’s largest oil reserves. But output plummeted during the 12-year term
of President Nicolás Maduro, who was captured early Saturday by US troops. The
nation currently produces about 1 million barrels a day, compared to nearly 4
million barrels in 1974. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during an
interview with ABC Sunday that he expects US oil companies will be eager for the
opportunity to drill for Venezuela’s heavy crude, which is key for refineries on
the US Gulf Coast. “I haven’t spoken to US oil companies in the last few days,
but we’re pretty certain that there will be dramatic interest,” Rubio said. “I
think there will be tremendous demand and interest from private industry if
given the space to do it.”
Yet before they set foot in Venezuela, companies will want to be certain it’s
stable, according to Lino Carrillo, a former manager at the nation’s state oil
company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, who fled the country more than two decades
ago. “For any oil companies to actually get serious about investing in Venezuela
would require that there will be a new congress or National Assembly,” Carrillo
said in an interview. “Not what’s happening now. Definitely not.”The work needed
to repair the nation’s infrastructure, meanwhile, is vast. At Venezuela’s oil
ports, the equipment is in such poor shape that it takes up to five days to
fully load supertankers that deliver crude to China. Seven years ago, it took
just one day. In the Orinoco Basin, a huge swath of Venezuela’s interior that’s
estimated to hold nearly a half a trillion barrels of recoverable oil, rigs have
been abandoned and spills go unchecked.
Drilling pads have been ransacked in broad daylight and sold for parts on the
black market. The country’s sprawling network of underground pipelines is
notoriously leaky and, at times, has been pillaged by the state oil company and
sold as scrap metal. Fires and explosions have gutted equipment.
And the massive Paraguana oil refining complex on the coast northwest of Caracas
operates only intermittently and at low rates due to breakdowns. Some of its
four oil upgraders, once state-of-art facilities that pre-treat the country’s
tar-like crude into feedstock suitable for refineries, have shuttered. What’s
left of Venezuela’s production relies heavily on Chevron, the only major US oil
company still operating in the country. The Houston-based company accounts for
about 25 percent of the nation’s output, working under a special licenses that
allows it to remain there despite US sanctions.
The other two US companies that would be best positioned to help rebuild
Venezuela, given their size and experience, are Exxon and ConocoPhillips,
analysts said. Both worked there previously but left after their assets were
nationalized by Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, in the mid-2000s.
Exxon and ConocoPhillips didn’t respond to requests for comment. Exxon has
previously said it would look at investing in Venezuela but only under the right
conditions. Chevron said in a statement that it’s focused on the safety and
wellbeing of its employees and the integrity of its assets in Venezuela. “We
continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,”
the company said.
It remains far from certain how Venezuela’s political transition will unfold and
what the environment will be like for oil companies to operate. For now,
sanctions remain in place, and a US naval blockade controls the surrounding
waters. Trump has said Vice President Delcy Rodriguez is now in charge, even
though she is a staunch ally of Maduro. “I expect oil companies will start the
work of updating plans and proposals for their participation — but won’t make
commitments until basic political stability looks forthcoming,” said Clayton
Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington.
The Trump’s administration’s work to assess Western oil companies’ interest is
falling partly to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris
Wright, the chair and vice chair of Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council.
Another challenge for companies to invest in Venezuela production is the fact
that the world is awash with oil, and global prices are hovering near a
five-year low. Many companies, meanwhile, are still owed billions of dollars in
unpaid loans and compensation after their assets were seized under Chavez. But
oil companies may still be lured back if the price and risk premiums are right,
said Kevin Book, managing director at Washington-based ClearView Energy
Partners. “You’re going to need good terms to get around heroic uncertainty,”
Book said in an interview. “The kinds of companies that are capable of
profitably producing resources in Venezuela are unlikely to ignore the size of
the reserve opportunity if they can see signs of relatively stability and they
can secure favorable contract terms.”
Egypt says it shares
‘identical’ positions with Saudi Arabia on Yemen, Sudan
Al Arabiya English/January 05/2026
Egypt said on Monday it is aligned with Saudi Arabia on the conflicts in Yemen
and Sudan, as well as the question of breakaway region Somaliland. During talks
in Cairo, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Foreign Minister
Prince Faisal bin Farhan stressed their countries’ “identical” positions on
“reaching peaceful solutions to the region’s crises,” an Egyptian presidency
statement said. They said solutions must “preserve the unity, sovereignty and
territorial integrity of states,” singling out Sudan, Yemen, Somalia and the
Gaza Strip. President al-Sisi on Monday welcomed Saudi Arabia’s proposal to host
an “inclusive conference” for southern Yemeni groups, while Egyptian Foreign
Minister Badr Abdelatty called for de-escalation and a Yemeni-led political
settlement.
CNN suggests ‘false
information’ could be behind UAE-KSA tensions
Arab News/January 06, 2026
RIYADH: Tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could have been sparked by false
information provided to the UAE about the Saudi Crown Prince’s recent visit to
Washington, CNN has reported. The American news channels says it has learned
from its sources that Saudi Arabia believes Abu Dhabi mobilized the separatist
Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces, which it backs, in provinces
bordering the kingdom after being falsely informed that Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman had asked US President Donald Trump during a White House
visit in November to impose sanctions on Abu Dhabi over its alleged support for
a warring party in Sudan’s civil war. CNN’s reporting also suggests that Riyadh
has reached out to the UAE to explain that it made no such request. Meanwhile,
the American channel says the UAE official who spoke to it on the condition of
anonymity didn’t directly address the matter when asked about the false
information claims. During the November visit, President Trump did publicly
announce that he had instructed his government to intervene in a bid to resolve
the ongoing, bloody conflict in Sudan, based on a request from the Saudi
Crown.Prince. However, neither the statements of the president, the crown
prince, nor any reports published by Saudi or US media made any reference to the
UAE at the time. On 30 December, Riyadh launched airstrikes on what it says was
a UAE military equipment shipment to Yemen, which was uncoordinated with the
Coalition.
The Kingdom also backed the Yemeni government’s call for UAE forces to leave the
country, which Abu Dhabi has agreed to honor, issuing a statement that
insinuates it has done so of its own will. The UAE statement also claimed an
unwavering commitment on the part of Abu Dhabi to Saudi Arabia’s security and
sovereignty, rejecting any actions that could threaten the Kingdom or undermine
regional stability. Meanwhile, CNN said it also understands that further Saudi
strikes targeting the STC remain on the table should the separatists not
withdraw. After the UAE pulled its troops from Yemen last week, the STC moved
toward secession, but under intense military pressure from Riyadh and its local
allies, it lost territory, and it now claims it is happy to enter a dialogue
with other Yemeni parties.
The Kingdom, for its part, has reaffirmed numerous times its belief that the
Southern cause is a just one and has called for it to be discussed among the
various parties at the negotiation table and away from the battlefield. Saudi
Arabia has called for a dialogue to occur in Riyadh to discuss the Southern
separation issue, and its call has been welcomed by the Yemeni government,
various Yemeni factions — including the STC itself, as mentioned — and the
majority of Arab and Muslim countries. A problematic figure in the equation is
Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, President of the STC, who is believed to have dual
citizenship, and many Yemenis on social media have been posting images of his
UAE passport and renouncing him as unfit for governing, claiming he serves a
foreign agenda. Others also posted videos of him making statements that he would
be happy to establish ties with Israel, should Southern Yemen gain its
independence. Most recently as well, a post by Yemen’s Media Minister Moammar
Eryani has accused the STC of allowing the theft and spread of weapons in
Eastern provinces. Eryani added that the STC has been deliberately causing chaos
and “using Al Qaeda as a scarecrow to achieve its own political gains at the
expense of Yemeni people”. CNN also says it has learned that Saudi concerns
extend beyond UAE involvement in Yemen and Sudan. Riyadh, according to the
report, is also wary of the UAE’s policies in the Horn of Africa and in Syria,
where it believes Abu Dhabi has cultivated ties with elements of the Druze
community, some of whose leaders have openly discussed secession. While no Saudi
source was mentioned in the reporting, CNN’s narrative is in line with several
public Saudi statements, which have objected to the recent Israeli recognition
and endorsement of Somaliland’s separation from Somalia, Israeli attempts to
undermine and attack the new Syrian government, and any attempt to impose a
Southern Yemeni state by military means. Israel maintains a close relationship
with Abu Dhabi and an even closer one since the signing of the 2020 Abraham
Accords, while Saudi Arabia has refused normalization with Tel Aviv until it
recognizes a Palestinian State and adheres to a credible and irreversible path
to achieving a Two-State Solution. This Saudi position has been reiterated yet
again during the Crown Prince’s November visit to Washington.
Delegation led by head of
Yemen’s STC to travel to Saudi Arabia, sources say
Al Arabiya English/January 06/2026
A delegation led by Aidrous al-Zubaidi, head of Yemen’s Southern Transitional
Council (STC), is set to travel to the Saudi capital Riyadh, sources told Al
Arabiya on Monday. Riyadh is set to host a comprehensive conference bringing
together all southern Yemeni factions for dialogue aimed at discussing fair
solutions to their cause. The initiative comes in response to a request by
Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, who
formally asked Saudi Arabia to host talks to resolve the crisis in the south.
Al-Alimi said he hoped the conference would include all southern components,
forces, and figures without exception – including the STC – to ensure an
inclusive dialogue. His request followed appeals from southern groups urging him
to ask Saudi Arabia to host and sponsor the conference in Riyadh. In their
statement, these groups stressed the need to take into account the historical,
political, and social dimensions of the southern issue, without excluding or
marginalizing any southern factions or leaders. They said the aim was to prevent
monopolization or exploitation of what they described as a just cause, ensure
peaceful coexistence among all residents of the southern governorates, meet
their aspirations, and help achieve security, stability, and development.
KSA-Backed
Forces Reclaim Eastern Yemen as Rift with UAE-Allied STC Deepens
This is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have regained control of the eastern
governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra from the United Arab Emirates–supported
Southern Transitional Council (STC), marking a major shift in the balance of
power as tensions among Gulf allies intensify. Rashad al-Alimi, head of Yemen’s
Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), had said on Saturday that the
Saudi-backed Homeland Shield forces had achieved “record success” by retaking
all military and security sites in al-Mahra, which borders Saudi Arabia. The
operation began a day earlier, he added. In a parallel development, the
internationally recognized government announced it had reasserted control over
Mukalla, the strategic port city and capital of Hadramout, after days of
fighting with STC forces that had seized the city last month. Government sources
said loyalist forces had since taken control of all districts across Hadramout,
Yemen’s largest governorate. In al-Mahra, Mohammed Omar Suwailam, director
general of the governorate’s Youth Office, confirmed on Sunday that Homeland
Shield forces now control all nine districts following the withdrawal of STC
fighters.
Military Escalation
The escalation follows the STC’s takeover of Hadramout and al-Mahra in early
December, two provinces that together account for nearly half of Yemen’s
territory and share a long border with Saudi Arabia. Since Friday, at least 80
STC fighters have been killed in clashes with Saudi-backed forces, an STC
official told AFP, adding that 152 were wounded and 130 captured. The fighting
has been accompanied by airstrikes. An STC military official said Saudi
warplanes carried out “intense” raids on one of the group’s camps in Barshid,
west of Mukalla, on Saturday.
Proposal for Dialogue
Despite the violence, the STC said it welcomed a Saudi proposal for dialogue,
describing it as a “genuine opportunity” to protect what it called the
aspirations of southern Yemenis.Following the advance of government forces,
Hadramout Governor Salem Ahmed Said al-Khanbashi arrived at Seiyun airport in
Wadi Hadramout, signaling the restoration of government authority in the
region.However, tensions persist elsewhere in southern Yemen, particularly in
Aden, the STC’s main stronghold. The government accused the STC of imposing
restrictions on movement in the port city, including preventing travelers from
entering and detaining families and patients seeking medical treatment. “These
restrictions constitute a serious violation of the constitution and a breach of
the Riyadh Agreement,” the government said in a statement, calling on the STC to
immediately lift all measures limiting freedom of movement. It added that the
state would take steps to protect civilians and ensure their rights. A
government official told Reuters that forces would continue advancing from
Hadramout toward Aden. Meanwhile, some flights have resumed at Aden
International Airport after a brief closure on Thursday, with the government,
Saudi Arabia, and the STC trading accusations over responsibility for the
shutdown. Disruptions have also been reported elsewhere. The U.S. embassy in
Yemen said it had received reports of flight closures and diversions to and from
Socotra, the Yemeni archipelago in the Indian Ocean.
Protracted Conflict
Yemen has been mired in civil war for more than a decade, with Iran-backed
Houthi rebels controlling much of the north, while the Saudi-led coalition
supports the internationally recognized government in the south. The UAE, a key
coalition member, backs the STC, which seeks the re-establishment of an
independent South Yemen. The latest Saudi airstrikes came just one day after the
STC announced a draft constitution for a future independent southern state,
further underscoring the deepening political and military rift within the anti-Houthi
camp.
Syria Confirms U.S.-Mediated Talks With Israel
This is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Syria has confirmed that it is participating in a new round of negotiations with
Israel, coordinated and mediated by the United States, according to a Syrian
government source. The source said the Syrian delegation is headed by Foreign
Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani and General Intelligence chief Hussein al-Salama
and is taking part in the current talks with the Israeli side under U.S.
auspices. Speaking to Syria’s official news agency, the government source said
the resumption of negotiations reflects what it described as Syria’s “firm
commitment to restoring its non-negotiable national rights.” According to the
source, the talks are primarily focused on reactivating the 1974 Disengagement
Agreement, with the aim of securing an Israeli withdrawal to positions held
prior to December 8, 2024. The source added that Syria is seeking an “equitable
security framework” that places full Syrian sovereignty above all other
considerations and guarantees the prevention of any form of interference in
Syria’s internal affairs.
Context: Why the Talks Matter
The 1974 Disengagement Agreement, brokered after the October War, the October
War of 1973, when Syrian and Egyptian forces launched a coordinated offensive
against Israel in an attempt to reclaim territories lost during the 1967
Arab-Israeli War. The agreement established ceasefire lines and buffer zones
along the Golan Heights, overseen by United Nations forces, and has since served
as the primary framework governing military separation between Syria and Israel.
The agreement has long governed the separation of Syrian and Israeli forces
along the Golan Heights and is overseen by the United Nations. Any effort to
revive or amend it comes amid heightened regional tensions following the
collapse of long-standing power balances in Syria and the wider region. The
confirmation of direct, U.S.-mediated negotiations marks a significant
diplomatic development, particularly as Washington intensifies its involvement
in regional security files involving Syria, Israel, and Lebanon. It also signals
a potential shift from indirect signaling to formal engagement at a time when
military escalation risks remain high.
Khamenei Has a Plan to Flee Iran if Unrest Escalates
This is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has prepared a contingency plan to
leave the country if security forces fail to contain protests or begin to
defect, according to an intelligence report shared with The Times.
The report says Khamenei, 86, would leave Tehran with a close circle of up to 20
aides and family members if he determined that the army and security services
tasked with quelling unrest were deserting, defecting, or failing to carry out
orders, citing intelligence sources. “The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very
close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir
apparent, Mojtaba,” according to the report.
Iran Announces Relief Measures
Iranian authorities on Sunday announced they will give a monthly allowance to
every citizen in the country to alleviate economic pressure, after a week of
protests, according to AFP. "Individuals can receive an amount equivalent to one
million Tomans (approximately $7) per person per month, which is credited to
their accounts for four months," government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told
state TV. She said the amount will be given to every Iranian for four months in
the form of credit that can be used to purchase certain goods and is intended to
"reduce the economic pressure on the people."But despite these relief measures,
Iran will offer no leniency to "rioters", though people have the right to
demonstrate, the head of the judiciary said on Monday.
Economic Strains
In Iran, which has a population of more than 85 million people, the minimum wage
is roughly $100 (85 euros) and average monthly salaries are around $200.
Iranians mostly use mobile phones and debit cards for their daily purchases
instead of cash. Iran's economy has been grappling with biting U.S. and
international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear programme for years, and December
saw a 52 percent year-on-year inflation rate. The national currency has lost
more than a third of its value against the US dollar over the past year, causing
a sharp decrease in people's purchasing power and broad discontent in the
country. Sunday marked the eighth day of sporadic protests in the Islamic
republic over economic uncertainty in the wake of the depreciation. The protests
have touched, to varying degrees, at least 40 different cities, mostly
medium-sized and in the country's west, according to an AFP tally based on
official announcements and media reports. At least 12 people have been killed,
including members of the security forces, according to a toll based on official
reports.
Witkoff, Kushner to represent US at Ukraine talks, says White House
Reuters/January 05/2026
President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared
Kushner will represent the United States at talks on Ukraine in Paris
this week, a White House official said on Monday.
Syria denies president
targeted in any security incident
AFP/January 05/2026
Syrian authorities on Monday denied President Ahmed al-Sharaa had been targeted
in any security incident, while two sources told AFP a shooting took place in
Damascus’s presidential palace last week. For days, social media users have been
circulating reports of gunfire on December 30 at the palace, which overlooks the
capital -- and Sharaa has not been seen in public since then. But interior
ministry spokesman Noureddine al-Baba said “reports claiming a security incident
targeted” Sharaa or other senior figures were “totally baseless.”“We
categorically affirm that these claims are entirely false,” he said. A diplomat
from a country that supports Syria’s new authorities told AFP on condition of
anonymity that “a shooting took place at the presidential palace on the evening
of December 30.”Separately, Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights monitor, told AFP a shooting inside the palace that evening
lasted “around 12 minutes” and left several wounded. Abdel Rahman, whose
Britain-based Observatory relies on a network of sources inside Syria, said the
incident was caused by “an internal dispute” between individuals at the palace
and did not target Sharaa. The Syrian leader, who appears sporadically, has not
been seen in public since he unveiled the country’s new currency last Monday.
After capture of Maduro, US
president warns Iran it could get ‘hit very hard’
The Arab Weekly/January 05/2026
There is speculation that the
Venezuela operation could encourage Trump to attempt similarly aggressive
actions in other places such as Cuba or further away in Iran. Buoyed by current
support from his political base at home after the arrest of Venezuelan President
Nicolas Maduro, US President Donald Trump has turned to Iran warning the regime
in Tehran on Sunday that it would get “hit very hard” by the United States if
more protesters die during demonstrations that have entered a second week.
“We’re watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in
the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States,”
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. A few days ago, he has warned Iranian
leaders, “we are locked and loaded and ready to go”, but did not specify which
actions he was contemplating. The overwhelming majority of US President Donald
Trump’s supporters has largely praised the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas
Maduro as a “swift and painless win”, even though a handful of conservative
figures criticised the attack on Venezuela and detention of Maduro as a betrayal
of Trump’s “America First” pledge to avoid foreign entanglements. For now, the
Trump base appears willing to cheer on the removal of Maduro, seeing little risk
of an escalation into a years-long quagmire like the wars in Afghanistan and
Iraq, political analysts said. The military action took place amid a slump in
Trump’s approval ratings, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showing that just
39 percent of US adults approved of his job performance, largely reflecting
disappointment over his handling of the economy. The US operation in Venezuela
has sparked speculation that the swift and relatively “cost-free” operation
could encourage Trump to attempt a military campaign in Greenland or launch
aggressive operations against foreign nemeses in places such as Cuba and
Colombia or further away in Iran. American Middle East analyst James M Dorsey
said the capture of the Venezuelan president is “a message to Latin American
leaders, to the Cubans, to Gustavo Petro of Colombia, potentially to someone
like Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran. That’s the intended message”. But some experts
warn a military operation in Iran is not without major risks. City College of
New York professor Rajan writing in the Guardian cautioned however that if the
US president “does wade into Iran’s upheaval, the consequences, for Iran, the US
and Iran’s neighbours, will be much more dangerous than anything that might
happen in Venezuela. And Trump is nothing if not unpredictable”.
With his own plans for military action against Iranian foes, Israeli Prime
Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had both Iran and Venezuela in mind on Sunday. He
said, “We stand in solidarity with the struggle of the Iranian people and with
their aspirations for freedom, liberty and justice,” as he spoke at the weekly
cabinet meeting.“It is very possible that we are standing at a moment when the
Iranian people are taking their destiny into their own hands,” he added,
according to a statement issued by his office. Netanyahu also said that Israel
backed the United States’ “strong action” in Venezuela.“Regarding Venezuela, I
wish to express the support of the entire government for the resolute decision
and strong action of the United States to restore freedom and justice to that
region of the world,” Netanyahu said at the opening of a cabinet meeting.
Sparked by a cost-of-living crisis with a shopkeeper’s strike in Tehran on
December 28, the Iranian protest movement has escalated ever since.Deadly
clashes between protesters and security forces have continued in Iran for the
second week as demonstrations escalated after being first sparked by anger over
the rising cost of living entered a second week. At least 12 people, including
members of the security forces, have been killed since the protests kicked off
with a shopkeepers’ strike in Tehran on December 28. Overnight, protests
featuring slogans criticising the Islamic republic’s clerical authorities were
reported in Tehran, Shiraz in the south and in areas of western Iran where the
movement has been concentrated, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists
News Agency (HRANA) monitor. The demonstrations are the most significant in Iran
since a 2022-2023 movement sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who
had been arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s strict dress code for women.
The latest protests have been concentrated in parts of the west with large
populations of the Kurdish and Lor minorities, and have yet to reach the scale
of the 2022-2023 movement, let alone the mass street demonstrations that
followed disputed 2009 presidential elections.
But they do present a new challenge for supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
86, and in power since 1989, coming on the heels of a 12-day war with Israel in
June that saw nuclear infrastructure damaged and key members of the security
elite killed.
The protests have taken place in 23 out of Iran’s 31 provinces and affected, to
varying degrees, at least 40 different cities. HRANA said that over the last
week at least 582 people have been arrested.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on January
05-06/2026
Trump,
Maduro, and Iran
David Hale/This is Beirut/January 05/2026
America's dramatic capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has set the
stage for the conduct of America's national security strategy in 2026. It has
also raised questions.Was it legal? Judging from precedents set with the 1989
capture, trial, conviction, and imprisonment of Panamanian strongman Manuel
Noriega, the answer is probably yes, when it comes to U.S. domestic law. In
Noriega’s case, an American court accepted jurisdiction. It dismissed the
defense claim of head-of-state sovereign immunity, drawing a distinction between
immunity for official acts and private criminal activity. The case against
Maduro is very similar. It is unlikely the Administration removed Maduro to the
Southern District of New York without a high degree of certainty there will be
no jurisdictional problems. The Trump Administration is at pains to emphasize it
conducted a "law-enforcement" operation, for which the Executive Branch has
broad authorities to act overseas. International law is less straightforward. An
argument could be made under international law for "just" action against Maduro
given his destabilization of the entire hemisphere through refugee flows,
corruption, gross human rights violations, and falsification of the 2025
election. The Trump team, however, is not resting its legal argument on those
factors, preferring the cleaner case of law enforcement against a criminal drug
kingpin. Much time will be spent in debates at the UN and various other places,
but all of that will be moot since international law has no enforcement
mechanism. Was it necessary and smart? Success has a thousand fathers; defeat is
an orphan. If things turn out well -- a successful conviction and some
improvement in Venezuelan behavior -- the Trump team will feel vindicated.
Nonetheless, it is producing another hairline crack in Trump's MAGA base. Many
applaud aggressive drug interdiction operations in the Caribbean and admire the
skill and courage of the soldiers who planned and conducted this triumphant
raid. But the whole thing runs against a core desire to have a very high bar for
American military intervention abroad. The author of the Monroe Doctrine --
then-Secretary of State John Quincy Adams -- famously said "America does not go
abroad in search of monsters to destroy." It is ironic that this elitist
American statesman -- and opponent of Andrew Jackson -- encapsulated so well a
key belief that animates MAGA's worldview. In contrast, Trump has said the U.S.
will "run" Venezuela until a transition occurs there and emphasized the
opportunity he has created for American energy interests. Yet, there is a strong
current in his movement that doesn't want to "run" another foreign country --
sounds like a costly quagmire -- and suspects that foreign policy entanglements
have more to do with the interests of plutocrats than of our nation. That
viewpoint may not be fair or accurate, but it is a pronounced strain in our
politics that contributed to Trump's election victories.
Trump knows his politics better than I do, but we can already see the
contortions of his top advisors as they try to explain their goals and next
steps with this disconnect in mind. Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth are right to
point out that Venezuela is not Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya; despite years of
Chavismo, the country enjoys a strong identity as a nation-state and has muscle
memory of democratic governance. Hegseth is also correct to emphasize that this
operation is "the exact opposite" of our campaign in Iraq; there is no ongoing
occupation, nor any nation-building agenda here. Rubio has walked back Trump's
"running" Venezuela statement by saying Washington will use the leverage of the
oil export quarantine to change the regime's behavior and bring about a
transition. What Is Next? When it comes to Venezuela, it is unclear. In the
first 48 hours -- an unfair timeframe to judge -- Maduro's top deputies are in
charge. They are committed Chavistas, part of their departed leader's alignment
with Russia, Cuba, and Iran, and his corruption and gross mismanagement.
Browbeating them into change will be an interesting exercise. Hopefully, the 60+
nations that condemned Maduro's electoral fraud last year, and his crimes
against humanity, will move past handwringing and lend a hand to a peaceful
transition. Or, as usual, do they prefer talk to action? What Are the Larger
Foreign Policy Implications? The Trump team just demonstrated they meant what
they wrote in the November 2025 National Security Strategy: priority number one
is the Western Hemisphere and reasserting American dominance there. For the
allies of Russia and China in Latin America and globally, it is another example
of those two "great powers" becoming idle bystanders the moment the U.S.
projects power against their woebegone allies.
The situation in Iran comes to mind, as Trump has threatened unspecified action
should the Tehran regime yet again turn violent against its own long-suffering
people. That is a refreshing change from the Obama Administration's stance
during the Arab Spring and Iran's Green Revolution, when we ditched our unsteady
Arab allies yet ignored the transgressions of our Iranian foes. The Maduro
example is one more tool in what must be a comprehensive, persistent pressure
campaign to make permanent the recent reversal of fortunes for Iran's clerical
police state. Iran's ayatollahs have spent almost half a century driving their
country into the ditch and causing untold misery throughout the region. Time to
rid Iran of them.
Why the US Should Recognize South Yemen
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/National Interest/January 05/2026
An independent South Yemen could be a force for stability and offer an end to
the country’s decade-long civil war.
On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced that its fighter jets bombed arms shipments
unloaded by two United Arab Emirates (UAE) vessels in Yemen. The shipments had
been destined for the South Transitional Council (STC) forces. The strike marked
a major shift in Saudi policy and aimed at preventing the STC from reviving
South Yemen, a formerly independent nation that merged into greater Yemen in
1990. An independent South Yemen is the country’s best bet to weaken the Houthi
insurgency in the northwestern part of the country that has disrupted global
shipping and raised inflation since 2023. The STC’s drive toward independence
also suppresses the Islah Party, a branch of the global Muslim Brotherhood that
the US Congress is currently considering whether to declare a Foreign Terrorist
Organization. Earlier in December, the STC, led by one of the Presidential
Leadership Council’s (PLC) seven vice presidents, Aidarus al-Zubaidi, launched a
campaign through which it seized control of most of the province of Hadramout—Yemen’s
main oil reservoir—until then under the control of the militia of PLC president
Rashad al-Ulaimi and his Islamist Islah allies. Globally recognized as Yemen’s
government, the PLC was formed in 2022 and entrusted with managing a
transitional period. Ulaimi is allied with Saudi Arabia, and so are three of his
vice presidents, two of whom are Islah members. Zubaidi and three other vice
presidents are aligned with the UAE. The PLC is therefore locked in a stalemate.
Starting in December, thousands of Yemenis took to the streets, calling for
secession and the revival of South Yemen. This internationally recognized nation
existed between its independence from Britain in 1967 and its union with North
Yemen in 1990. The STC and Zubaidi appear determined to pursue secession and
seek international recognition for a revived southern state. Saudi Arabia,
Ulaimi, and the Islamist Islah Party oppose secession. After Saudi airstrikes on
Emirati shipments, Riyadh demanded Abu Dhabi withdraw its troops, which had
entered Yemen as part of the Saudi-led coalition to combat the Houthis in the
north in 2015. Abu Dhabi obliged, but the southern Yemenite secession campaign
continued.
In 1990, the North and South united into one country. A decade later, Al Qaeda
in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) launched a terror campaign and controlled swaths
of land. President Obama eliminated the group’s leader, Anwar al-Awlaki, a US
citizen of Yemeni origin, as Washington gave a nod to the northern Houthi
militia to help the government in Sanaa defeat AQAP. The Houthis seized the
opportunity to take the capital in 2014, prompting Saudi Arabia to lead a
coalition in 2015 to roll back the Houthis to their northern mountainous region
and restore the government of Abdrabbu Hadi. In the war on Houthis, the Saudis
and their Yemeni allies underperformed militarily. At the same time, the United
Arab Emirates and the STC emerged as the strongest Yemeni faction, building
disciplined security forces focused on governance, counterterrorism, and the
security of shipping lanes.
The STC successfully dismantled AQAP strongholds—like in Mukalla in 2016—and cut
Houthi supply lines while preserving the flow of humanitarian aid. In 2018, STC
forces were on the verge of taking the port city of Hodeidah, only for
Washington to force the operation’s halt on the grounds that capturing the port
would stop humanitarian aid flows into Houthi-controlled areas.
Seven years later, the STC has shifted its attention to consolidating its power
by clearing non-Houthi territories of the Islamist Islah, perhaps reasoning
that, since they could not reunite Yemen, it can at least build a successful
state in the parts it controls.
The contrast between the STC and the Ulaimi-Islah alliance explains why the
latter clings to the narrative of “unity [of Yemen] versus rebellion [secession
of the south].” Framing southern aspirations as treasonous preserves the
Islamists’ international legitimacy as defenders of a unified Yemen.
However, Southerners see their cause as redressing chronic injustice: decades of
marginalization since unification in 1990 have fueled resentment and contributed
to the outbreak of the conflict. Despite the strong arguments for independence,
Washington remains committed to Yemen’s formal unity, viewing secession as a
threat to stability and the wider post-World War II order. But with President
Donald Trump openly skeptical of said order, redrawing global borders might
offer a better way for Yemenis to cut themselves out of a Gordian Knot-like
civil war.
In fact, Yemen is already de facto divided. Clinging to outdated frameworks
risks alienating a capable ally against Iran-backed militants in the north and
Islamist extremists in the east. A pragmatic US approach would recognize
southern self-determination as a stabilizing force. A supervised, post-conflict,
and internationally monitored referendum could formalize independence while
respecting local diversity. Such a plan aligns with international law and would
empower a partner committed to counter-terrorism, maritime security, and
regional stability.
**About the Author: Hussain Abdul-Hussain
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/why-the-us-should-recognize-south-yemen
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at The Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies (FDD). He focuses on the Gulf region and Yemen. Hussain earned a
degree in History and Archeology from the American University of Beirut, after
which he worked as a reporter and later managing editor at Beirut’s The Daily
Star. In Washington, Hussain helped set up and manage the Arabic satellite
network Alhurra Iraq, after which he headed the Washington Bureau of Kuwaiti
daily Alrai. Hussain has worked as a visiting fellow with Chatham House and has
written for The New York Times and The Washington Post.
Why Trump bared his teeth and nabbed Venezuela’s Maduro —
and it’s not just drugs
Jonathan Schanzer/New York Post/January 05/2026
The Trump administration’s capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro on
Saturday was a US victory on two fronts: the war on drugs and the great-power
competition with China and Russia. For years, the war on drugs has been fought
at home, primarily with slogans, aimed at changing the behavior of American
citizens. President Trump upended that feckless approach in 2025 when he began
bombing the narco-vessels bringing drugs to the United States. His strategy was
controversial, to put it mildly: Even strong proponents of the US military and
fierce opponents of the narco-kingpins were alarmed by America’s use of force in
the Caribbean Basin. This weekend, Trump upped the ante again: He brought down a
narco-state through regime change. The deterrent effect of this operation cannot
be overstated. The cartels and kingpins that have historically poisoned the US
with drugs are now on notice.
Sure, the US military will continue to bomb their vessels on the high seas. But
what scares them more now is the prospect of being captured and then getting
shipped to the United States to face justice. Don’t expect everyone in the
United States to cheer this historic event, though.
Ever since the failed experiments to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan,
neo-isolationists in Washington have warned that America must avoid regime
change at all costs. Their howls of disapproval can be expected in the days and
weeks to come. For now, Trump intends for the United States to run the
government in Venezuela until a suitable government can be installed. And that
carries with it significant risk. If Venezuela unravels, Trump will be blamed.
If the wider region descends into chaos, the president will be saddled with
that, too. Will Trump’s base give him the opportunity to improve upon the
regime-change failures of his predecessors? He appears determined to try. In
truth, the regime-change controversy is of secondary importance. Bringing down
Maduro was about bringing the Western hemisphere back under the influence of the
United States. Maduro was not just the head of a narco-state. He was an ally of
America’s nastiest enemies. In fact, Maduro met with a senior Chinese delegation
in Caracas shortly before he was captured by US special forces.
But Maduro’s regime was not just an ally to China. The regime in Caracas was
also a valuable partner to other rogue states like Russia, Cuba and Iran.
Even the Republic of Turkey, a notoriously unreliable NATO ally, has been an
ally to the Maduro regime. The government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is
the fifth member of Venezuela’s “Fabulous Five” — the countries that helped prop
up the Venezuelan strongman. One or more of these regimes may try to exploit the
vacuum in Venezuela. They may not be able to restore Maduro to power. But they
can try to make America pay a price for ousting their ally. The Trump
administration must bare its teeth now, and warn them to keep out. If done
right, the ousting of Maduro will weaken the influence of America’s adversaries
in our hemisphere. It will deprive the cartels of a transit hub for shipments to
the United States. And it will deprive our enemies of a valued ally.If that’s
how things play out, not a bad start to 2026.
https://nypost.com/2026/01/04/opinion/why-trump-bared-his-teeth-and-nabbed-*venezuelas-maduro-and-its-not-just-drugs/
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
is a former terrorism finance analyst at the US Treasury Department. X: @JSchanzer.
Murderous dictatorships, the alternative scenarios
Charles Elias Chartouni/This
is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Events that point to current events
bring us back to disparaging conflicts, spread over distant geopolitics, but
joined together around common themes and issues. Venezuelan and Iranian
dictatorships converge at the intersection of strategic, ideological and
organized crime issues that define them and report their common path for more
than two decades. Their concerted action dates back more than twenty years,
during which the two countries stood on political and strategic axes
diametrically opposed to the liberal and democratic order established by the
United States in the wake of World War II.
It was about challenging the U.S. in its strategic and security perimeter,
rewriting the Cold War scenarios in terms of ideological proclamation,
territorial sanctification, spreading security arrows, underground economies,
and transcontinental subversion trajectories. From fictionalizing a global
counterorder projected on the front stage during the Chavez-Ahmadinejad era to
coordinating terrorist actions and organized crime networks worldwide, to the
repression of democratic oppositions, these two states have engaged in an open
path of protest liberal democracies and their strategic security architectures.
Nevertheless, both regimes were conspired, banned from international
institutions and subjected to regimes of sanctions, even when the Venezuelan and
Iranian oppositions were in the midst of emergence and resolutely opted for
democratic alliances. These allowed them to break their isolation, to confront
their Cuban and Nicaraguan relays, as well as the medium of international
pilgrimage, and to register in a counter-dynamics. The two regimes today face a
double challenge that, for the first time, challenges their viability, at the
intersection of internal rebellions and regime change policies based on an
integrated canvas that pushes long-perennished lines of division.
The end of these two regimes will be decisive and cause multiple inflections
called to refram the international system. A new architecture could thus emerge
and change the current dynamics. These regimes are defined from a matrix where
ideological and strategic intersect into vectors of crime and terrorism. We are
facing criminal and terrorist state Whatever the weighing factors, their true
status is defined by their actual functions and the role they play in creating
an international order whose outlines are shaped by crime and terror under their
multiple denials.
So it is not coincidence that the fight against them is closely linked to the
transcontinental crime they administer. Their defeat will be at the junction
point between the founding myths they mobilize and the role they play in
destroying the liberal political order and its institutions. We are not dealing
with the classic corpus of ideological totalitarianisms specific to the Cold
War, but with avatars where the ideological, strategic, and criminal merge.
The question of their respective successions is asked insistently, especially so
that the assumption of chaos is on the horizon. The precedents of the Arab
springs threaten the emergence of increasingly vague security and strategic
spheres, and their impact on fragile geopolitics and widespread crime regimes.
Transitional scenarios are articulated around convergent sequences that
summarize the end of founding myths, the failure of internal legitimacy and the
failure of their hypothetical framework by the new Russian-Chinese totalitarian
axis and the narrative fictions woven around BRICS states and their derivatives.
These avatars constitute nothing but posteriori rationalizations of the
ideological superstitions and the monstrosities they have generated.
The fall of the Venezuelan and Iranian regimes results from an implosion and a
phenomenon of exhaustion that account for the ongoing brutal collapse. The
ideological narratives of communism and khomeinism have already gone on fire,
leaving way to the composite disasters they have left. The reality of these
regimes is measured by the bankruptcy of mafia economies, the social
decomposition produced over several decades, the poverty of ideological
narratives as vicious and fallacious, as well as the failure of alternative
framework regimes supposedly embodied by communism and radical Islam.
The U.S. coup comes at a time when the internal legitimacy crisis is paroxytic,
and corporations are ready to provide the relay needed for years-long mutations.
The hypothetical spurs of nationalist solidarity emerge from educated
repertoires that no longer echo. The lies of the "Bolivarian Revolution" and the
"Iranian Islamic Revolution" are now being recorded in the records of
ideological bluff, oligarchic annuities, waste of resources, economic failures,
collapse of infrastructure, slums where the waste of a decomposing world
accumulate, and the world. ambient terror and a state of widespread
criminalization. This is added to the narratives of alternative economic models
promoted by Chinese economic imperialism and the imperial delusions caused by
the neo-Bolshevik dictatorship of a confused Russia.
The fall of the Bolivarian regime should operate in a scenario of manifest
exhaustion and democratic revival structured sufficiently to allow for a real
transition, without a dramatic setback. Venezuelan society has suffered enough
from the brutality of a criminal regime and terror that has destroyed the
balances of a once structured society. Venezuelans will turn the page on this
prolonged nightmare, whose lies have been discredited over decades of horrors.
This is not a scenario of ethno-national separatism likely to question the
viability of the country. On the contrary, the U.S. frontal fight against
drug-trafficking states and their ideological double will result in the collapse
of the inherited “unarmed utopias” of tropical communism and its Cuban and
Nicaraguan avatars, as well as their continental sedimentation effects.
The fall of Khomeinism is the result of a long rotrefaction that affects the
Islamic narrative at the root of this murderous dystopia. It will mark the end
of the ideological and political history of militant Islam and the opening of a
post-Islamist era. Iranian society is adequately prepared to face this
transition and has nothing to regret. The superstitions of political Islam have
lost all mobilizing capacity, and the move forward embodied by the imperial
adventures of the Islamic regime has been thwarted by the destruction of the
operational platforms it had established over four decades, and by the new
geostrategic realities emerging from the Israeli counter-offensive and the
framework provided by President Trump administration.
Iranian liberal theologian Sedigheh Vasmagi rightly believes that the wave of
repression is "symptomatic of the weakness of power." An opponent of the Islamic
regime accurately describes the emerging context: "When a regime feels strong,
it doesn't need to stop so massively." If he thought about unifying the
population around an external enemy, it failed. Ironically, his policy serves
the interests of Americans and Israelis, better than recruiting relays within
disenchanted youth. "The fall of the regime, however, opens up scenarios of
chaos, whose consequences will go far beyond Iran's borders and that should be
closely monitored.
In a multiethnic society as volatile as Iran and its geopolitical peripheries,
the option of a constitutional monarchy appears as the best guarantee of a
controlled democratic transition. It would allow Iran to renew with its
anti-Islamic history and historical legitimacy, overcome the splits inherited
from a murderous dictatorship and engage in dialogue on institutional
engineering of the transition.
This brief summary is sufficiently explicit to shed light on the issues of
respective transitions, current dynamics, and political and geostrategic
upheaval that they are likely to lead to shifting paradigms across a
transnational topology.
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Les dictatures meurtrières à la dérive, les scénarios
alternatifs
Charles Elias Chartouni/This
is Beirutt/January 05/2026
Les événements qui ponctuent l’actualité nous ramènent à des conflits disparates,
déployés sur des géopolitiques distantes, mais qui se rejoignent autour de
thèmes et d’enjeux communs. Les dictatures vénézuélienne et iranienne convergent
à l’intersection d’enjeux stratégiques, idéologiques et de criminalité organisée
qui les définissent et rendent compte de leur parcours commun depuis plus de
deux décennies. Leur action concertée remonte à plus de vingt ans, période
durant laquelle les deux pays se sont positionnés sur des axes politiques et
stratégiques diamétralement opposés à l’ordre libéral et démocratique instauré
au lendemain de la Seconde Guerre mondiale par les États-Unis.
Il s’agissait de défier les États-Unis dans leur périmètre sécuritaire et
stratégique, de rééditer les scénarios de la guerre froide en matière de
proclamation idéologique, de sanctuarisation territoriale, de propagation de
friches sécuritaires, d’économies souterraines et de trajectoires
transcontinentales de subversion. De la fiction d’un contre-ordre mondial
projeté sur le devant de la scène durant l’ère Chávez-Ahmadinejad à la
coordination d’actions terroristes et de réseaux de criminalité organisée à
l’échelle planétaire, en passant par la répression des oppositions démocratiques,
ces deux États se sont engagés dans une voie de contestation ouverte des
démocraties libérales et de leurs architectures sécuritaires et stratégiques.
Néanmoins, l’un et l’autre régime ont été conspués, mis au ban des institutions
internationales et soumis à des régimes de sanctions, alors même que les
oppositions vénézuélienne et iranienne étaient en pleine émergence et optaient
résolument pour des alliances démocratiques. Celles-ci leur permettaient de
rompre leur isolement, d’affronter leurs relais cubain et nicaraguayen ainsi que
les milieux de la pègre internationale, et de s’inscrire dans une
contre-dynamique. Les deux régimes font aujourd’hui face à une double
contestation qui remet pour la première fois en cause leur viabilité, à la
croisée des rébellions internes et des politiques de changement de régime
fondées sur un canevas intégré qui bouscule des lignes de partage longtemps
pérennisées.
La fin de ces deux régimes sera déterminante et à l’origine de multiples
inflexions appelées à recadrer le système international. Une nouvelle
architecture pourrait ainsi émerger et modifier les dynamiques en cours. Ces
régimes se définissent à partir d’une matrice où l’idéologique et le stratégique
se travestissent en vecteurs de criminalité et de terrorisme. Nous sommes face à
des États criminels et terroristes. Quels que soient les facteurs de pondération,
leur véritable statut se définit à partir de leurs fonctions réelles et du rôle
qu’ils jouent dans la création d’un ordre international dont les contours sont
façonnés par la criminalité et la terreur sous leurs multiples déclinaisons.
Il n’est donc pas fortuit que le combat engagé contre eux soit étroitement lié à
la criminalité transcontinentale qu’ils administrent. Leur défaite se jouera au
point de jonction entre les mythes fondateurs qu’ils mobilisent et le rôle
qu’ils assument dans la destruction de l’ordre politique libéral et de ses
institutions. Nous n’avons pas affaire au corpus classique des totalitarismes
idéologiques propres à la guerre froide, mais à des avatars où l’idéologique, le
stratégique et le criminel se confondent.
La question de leurs successions respectives se pose avec insistance, d’autant
plus que l’hypothèse du chaos se profile à l’horizon. Les précédents des
printemps arabes font redouter l’émergence de friches sécuritaires et
stratégiques toujours plus béantes, ainsi que leurs incidences sur des
géopolitiques fragilisées et des régimes de délinquance généralisée. Les
scénarios de transition s’articulent autour de séquences convergentes qui
résument la fin des mythes fondateurs, la défaillance des légitimités internes
et l’échec de leur hypothétique encadrement par le nouvel axe totalitaire
russo-chinois et par les fictions narratives tissées autour des États du BRICS
et de leurs dérivés. Ces avatars ne constituent que des rationalisations a
posteriori des supercheries idéologiques et des monstruosités qu’ils ont
engendrées.
La chute des régimes vénézuélien et iranien résulte d’une implosion et d’un
phénomène d’épuisement qui rendent compte de l’effondrement brutal en cours. Les
récits idéologiques du communisme et du khomeinisme ont déjà fait long feu,
laissant place aux désastres composites qu’ils ont légués. La réalité de ces
régimes se mesure à la faillite des économies mafieuses, aux décompositions
sociétales produites sur plusieurs décennies, à la pauvreté de narratifs
idéologiques aussi vétustes que fallacieux, ainsi qu’à l’échec des régimes
d’encadrement alternatifs prétendument incarnés par le communisme et l’islam
radical.
Les coups de boutoir des États-Unis interviennent à un moment où la crise des
légitimités internes est paroxystique et où les sociétés sont prêtes à fournir
les relais nécessaires à des mutations engagées depuis de longues années. Les
hypothétiques élans de solidarité nationaliste relèvent de répertoires éculés
qui ne font plus écho. Les mensonges de la « révolution bolivarienne » et de la
« révolution islamique iranienne » s’inscrivent désormais dans les registres du
bluff idéologique, des rentes oligarchiques, du gaspillage des ressources, des
échecs économiques, de l’effondrement des infrastructures, des bidonvilles où
s’accumulent les rebuts d’un monde en décomposition, de la terreur ambiante et
d’un état de criminalisation diffuse. À cela s’ajoutent les récits des modèles
économiques alternatifs promus par l’impérialisme économique chinois et les
délires impériaux portés par la dictature néo-bolchevique d’une Russie en pleine
déroute.
La chute du régime bolivarien devrait s’opérer selon un scénario d’épuisement
manifeste et de relève démocratique suffisamment structurée pour permettre une
transition réelle, sans revers dramatique. La société vénézuélienne a
suffisamment souffert de la brutalité d’un régime criminel et de terreur qui a
détruit les équilibres d’une société jadis structurée. Les Vénézuéliens
tourneront la page de ce cauchemar prolongé, dont les mensonges ont été
discrédités au fil de décennies d’horreurs. Il ne s’agit pas d’un scénario de
séparatisme ethno-national susceptible de remettre en cause la viabilité du
pays. Bien au contraire, le combat frontal mené par les États-Unis contre les
États narcotrafiquants et leurs doubles idéologiques entraînera l’effondrement
des « utopies désarmées » héritées du communisme tropical et de ses avatars
cubain et nicaraguayen, ainsi que de leurs effets de sédimentation à l’échelle
continentale.
La chute du khomeinisme constitue l’aboutissement d’une longue putréfaction qui
affecte le narratif islamique à l’origine de cette dystopie meurtrière. Elle
marquera la fin de l’histoire idéologique et politique de l’islam militant et
l’ouverture d’une ère post-islamiste. La société iranienne est suffisamment
préparée pour aborder cette transition et n’a rien à regretter. Les supercheries
de l’islam politique ont perdu toute capacité mobilisatrice, et la fuite en
avant incarnée par les aventures impériales du régime islamique a été mise en
échec par la destruction des plateformes opérationnelles qu’il avait constituées
sur quatre décennies, ainsi que par les nouvelles réalités géostratégiques
issues de la contre-offensive israélienne et des encadrements fournis par
l’administration du président Trump.
La théologienne libérale iranienne Sedigheh Vasmagi estime à juste titre que la
vague de répression est « symptomatique de la faiblesse du pouvoir ». Un
opposant au régime islamique décrypte avec précision le contexte émergent : «
Quand un régime se sent fort, il n’a pas besoin d’arrêter aussi massivement.
S’il pensait fédérer la population autour d’un ennemi extérieur, c’est raté.
Ironiquement, sa politique sert les intérêts des Américains et des Israéliens,
mieux à même de recruter des relais au sein d’une jeunesse désenchantée. » La
chute du régime ouvre néanmoins des scénarios de chaos dont les incidences
dépasseront largement les frontières de l’Iran et qu’il conviendra de surveiller
de près.
Dans une société multiethnique aussi volatile que celle de l’Iran et de ses
périphéries géopolitiques, l’option d’une monarchie constitutionnelle apparaît
comme le meilleur gage d’une transition démocratique maîtrisée. Elle permettrait
à l’Iran de renouer avec son histoire antéislamique et sa légitimité historique,
de dépasser les clivages hérités d’une dictature meurtrière et d’engager un
dialogue sur l’ingénierie institutionnelle de la transition.
Cette brève récapitulation est suffisamment explicite pour éclairer les enjeux
des transitions respectives, les dynamiques en cours et les bouleversements
politiques et géostratégiques qu’elles sont susceptibles d’induire à l’échelle
d’une topologie transnationale aux paradigmes en mutation.
Will the West fail the
Iranian people once again?
Karam Nama/The Arab Weekly/January 05/2026
The West will fail Iranians again if it limits itself to applauding from afar.
It will fail them if it turns their protests into bargaining chips in the
nuclear negotiations.
For over a decade, Iran’s diverse peoples, across ethnic, class and religious
lines, have been moving along a single trajectory: attempting to dismantle a
closed theocratic system that hides behind religious language and relies on
security agencies that understand only the logic of ‘national security’ and
‘foreign conspiracy’. From the 2009 Green Movement to the 2022 uprising
following the death of Mahsa Amini, and now to the current wave of anger
triggered by the collapse of the currency and soaring prices, the pattern has
remained unchanged: people taking to the streets to demand dignity, with a
regime responding with bullets and a West content to make statements. These
protests are not fleeting ‘economic crises.’ They are chapters in a long
struggle to overthrow a governing structure that treats society as a subject of
discipline and the state as an extension of presumed divine authority. As the
focus of anger shifts from the middle classes to marginalised towns,
universities, women and young people, it has become clear that Iranians are no
longer protesting against policies; they are rejecting the entire model of
governance. What is striking is that Western analysis has begun to acknowledge
this shift. In a recent analytical report for DW, Omid Barin wrote that the
protests, which began with a bazaar strike, “have moved beyond economic
grievances and reflect deep political discontent that threatens the regime’s
legitimacy.” This acknowledgement by Western media is consistent with what
Iranians themselves have been saying for years: the crisis is political before
it is economic.
It is in this context that US President Donald Trump declared that the United
States “will intervene to save the protesters if the regime opens fire on them.”
The language sounds forceful, but it is hardly new. Iranians heard similar
promises in 2009, 2017, 2019 and 2022, only to be left alone in the face of
repression. The West raises its voice when the streets of Iran erupt, but
quickly retreats to its priorities: the nuclear file, energy security, ballistic
missiles and regional balance. Human rights, political prisoners and killings in
the streets remain secondary, tools of negotiation rather than moral
commitments. Even Western media, which should serve as a window into what is
happening, repeats the same pattern: intense coverage at the peak of unrest,
followed by withdrawal. The Associated Press could not even send reporters
inside Iran during the latest protests; its reports were written from the UAE,
relying largely on official Iranian sources. Thus, the regime’s narrative is
recycled as “international coverage.”Meanwhile, senior regime figures play their
familiar roles. Ali Larijani warns that any American support for the protests
will “spread chaos across the region,” framing repression as a defence of
stability. President Masoud Pezeshkian admits that “the authorities are to
blame,” yet reduces the crisis to mismanagement, avoiding the central question:
is the problem policy, or the nature of the system itself? Protests are growing
on the ground, casualties are rising and a university student tells The
Guardian: “You would have to be naive to believe that Iranians trust
Pezeshkian’s government or Khamenei’s system.” This remark highlights the divide
between the regime’s attempts to reinvent itself and the public’s belief that
the entire system is corrupt. This view is supported by Gulf News, which claims
that the current protests “reflect deeper pressures on the Islamic Republic,
extending beyond economics to a cumulative crisis of political legitimacy.”A
report by SpecialEurasia adds that the shift from economic to political slogans
“reveals declining state legitimacy even among traditional merchant classes.”
These are analytical conclusions, not journalistic observations, pointing to an
existential crisis for the regime rather than a price-shock episode.
The West’s failure can be summarised in two ways:
* The political-security lens
The West treats Iran as a ‘security puzzle’: nuclear enrichment, missiles and
regional influence. Protests remain a ‘sidebar’ to negotiations.
A report by Critical Threats/ISW notes that “the state’s capacity to control
unrest weakens with each new crisis, but the absence of serious international
pressure gives the regime room to reorganise its repressive apparatus.”
* The media-symbolic lens
Coverage is inconsistent and often focuses on ‘chaos’, with little access to
internal narratives. Even the most thoughtful essays in The New York Times, The
Washington Post, Foreign Policy or the Financial Times, which criticise Western
hesitation, remain part of an elite conversation that rarely translates into
policy. The question is not just for the West, though. Western failure is
mirrored regionally. Many Arab states suffer from Iran’s expansionist policies
yet often reduce Iran to its regime, forgetting that people live under that
regime and pay the price for its domestic repression, just as neighbouring
countries pay the price for its regional adventurism. The Woman, Life, Freedom
uprising redefined the relationship between society, religion and the state. It
demonstrated that change in Iran is not an illusion, but rather a movement
driven by women, young people, minorities and marginalised groups. Yet regional
and Western capitals continue to view Iran through the lens of ‘threat’, not
‘humanity.’
So when will rhetoric become commitment?
Iranians are not asking the West to topple the regime. At the very least, they
ask that the West not be complicit in sustaining it: no normalisation with
security agencies, no deals that rehabilitate the regime and no ‘concerned
statements’ used as a cover for silence. The West will fail Iranians again if it
limits itself to applauding from afar. It will fail them if it turns their
protests into bargaining chips in the nuclear negotiations. It will fail them if
it continues to say, ‘We are monitoring the situation closely.’ The real
question is this: is the price of freedom in Iran higher than that of a deal
with Tehran? Iranians answered that question a long time ago.In Western
capitals, however, the answer remains pending.
*Karam Nama is British-Iraqi writer. He has published several books, including
An Unlicensed Weapon: Donald Trump, a Media Power Without Responsibility and
Sick Market: Journalism in the Digital Age.
A US Venezuela Victory May
Help China Gain an Edge
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/January 05, 2026
The daring raid that snagged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was an awesome
display of the capabilities that make the US military the world’s best by far.
It serves as proof that President Donald Trump’s corollary to the Monroe
Doctrine is real, and reminds us of his penchant for using force in novel,
surprising ways.
Trump has, undeniably, struck down a bad leader — and struck a blow that matters
in the fight for global power. Yet the raid in Caracas also raises harder
questions about Venezuela’s future, the clash for influence in the Western
Hemisphere, and the rules of conduct in a disordered world. The operation’s
success, with no reported US fatalities, is testament to the ability of
America’s intelligence community to find hard targets and America’s military to
strike them. It also gives Trump a trophy in his Western Hemisphere campaign.
Since taking office last year, Trump has used various measures — diplomatic
pressure on Panama, support for friendly rulers in Argentina and El Salvador,
escalating coercion against Maduro, lethal strikes against suspected narco-traffickers
— to reassert US primacy in the Americas.
Maduro seems likely to spend many years in a US prison. His fate is a stark
warning of how seriously this administration takes the threat of hostile Latin
American leaders that seek ties to Beijing and Moscow — a fact Trump emphasized
after the strike.
The raid also showcased Trump’s preferred way of war. In June, Trump used
misdirection and disinformation to disguise preparations for his strike on
Iran’s nuclear facilities. In recent days, his administration ran the same play
again.
Reports that Trump would settle for a blockade of Venezuelan oil, or that he was
preparing to negotiate, were presumably meant to give Maduro a false sense of
security. Trump’s way of war involves maximizing secrecy and surprise that
accentuate US advantages — and clear the way for precise uses of force that
allow the president to start and end conflicts on his own terms. There is,
additionally, another parallel to Trump’s Iran strike: This attack shows the
limits of solidarity among other powers.
Russia and China are howling about violations of Venezuelan sovereignty. They
have sustained Maduro for many years. But they can only offer thoughts and
prayers in the face of determined American power projection in the Western
Hemisphere — just as they couldn’t or wouldn’t save the Iranian regime from
military humiliation at the hands of Israel and the US. There’s much to applaud,
then, in a tactical success that will likely have real strategic benefits. There
are also uncertainties ahead.
The first involves the future of Venezuela. Trump has achieved leadership
change, but not regime change, since many hardline figures in Maduro’s
government remain.
Trump has pledged that the US will “run the country” to oversee a democratic
transition; he has threatened additional attacks if regime remnants don’t play
along.
But even if this squeeze play works, any political transition could be long and
messy, since it involves undoing the damage — economic, political, social — from
nearly 30 years of Chavismo. We’ll see how much appetite an anti-nation-building
president has for that. Second, the great-power fight for the Western Hemisphere
is far from over. China has spent decades investing in infrastructure, trade and
other relationships with Latin American countries. The monuments to its
influence include mega-ports in Peru and a massive space-tracking station in
Bolivia. Its police and security ties have been expanding, as well. Beijing,
coincidentally, released a paper on its involvement in Latin America in
December. The thrust of it was that the global balance of power is changing in
ways that favor the expansion of Chinese influence.
Trump has served notice that there’s only one great power in the Americas, when
it comes to military muscle; Latin American countries will surely be even more
cautious about offering Beijing access to anything that looks like a base, at
least for now. But China will keep seeking economic, technological and political
ties in the region, as part of a play for long-term advantage.
Finally, bad actors may exploit this precedent. The Trump administration argues,
plausibly, that this operation was legal because Maduro was under US indictment.
It can point to the invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose Manuel Noriega, as
evidence that Washington has done this before. Yet if Beijing has been watching
closely, perhaps that’s because Trump’s tactics — blockading a hostile country,
decapitating its leadership — could ultimately be useful against Taiwan. In a
unipolar post-Cold War era, the US didn’t have to worry about rivals emulating
its tactics. In today’s more challenging environment, its example might, one
day, be used in nasty ways.
Yemen and Choosing to Build Stability
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/January 05, 2026
It is hardly surprising that the Saudi initiative to host the intra-Southern
dialogue has been well received in Yemen. The initiative offers the people of
southern Yemen, as well as all of its factions, an opportunity to develop a
united vision for the Southern Question and a framework for implementing that
vision through dialogue.
It has called for the talks at the request of the Chairman of the Presidential
Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, seeking to address the trajectory triggered
by reckless practices on the part of certain actors within the Southern
Transitional Council. The decision to host this dialogue reflects the Kingdom's
focus on addressing crises through political solutions developed through
dialogue and consensus, thereby building a bulwark to adventurism,
confrontation, rupture, and exclusion.
Encouraging Yemeni parties to adopt the language of dialogue also entails
reinforcing Yemenis’ relationship with institutions and legitimate frameworks,
ensuring that just causes are not leveraged in political bidding wars, placing
them on course for resolution instead.
Saudi Arabia’s posture in Yemen is part of its broader strategic approach: using
its political, economic, Arab, Islamic, and international weight to consolidate
regional stability. This approach is also evident in its positions on a series
of crises, including Sudan and Lebanon.
The need for stabilization is made more pressing by the devastating wars and
major shifts unfolding in the region, especially as the instability goes beyond
the Middle East, with the entire world in turmoil because of the actions of
great powers.
Four years ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine shattered Europe’s sense of
security. Germany had assumed war was merely a painful memory covered in history
books and that redrawing international borders by force, especially on the old
continent, was prohibited. Today, Germany is in a race against time as it seeks
to retrieve its fangs and modernize its arsenal. Massive sums will be spent to
recover a measure of reassurance as German generals raise the alarm and warn
that a devastating conflict with Russia could erupt within years. They believe
that the Ukrainian “meal” will only whet Putin’s appetite for former Soviet
possessions. The same apprehensions are shared by the generals of Britain and
France. Polish generals run their fingers over their country’s borders and the
wounds of their history. Europe is preparing for war; this is not a trivial
matter.
Another dramatic development has shaken the world. No one expected to see a
handcuffed Nicolas Maduro being led to a US court on drug- trafficking charges.
Latin America’s animosity toward “big brother’s” dominance goes without saying.
These sensitivities are deeply rooted in the culture of many countries on the
continent, and several regimes were born and survived on the rhetoric of
defiance against the American general. Europe worries about the precedent set by
Putin in Ukraine. In many countries, these fears have been aggravated by the
precedent Donald Trump set with his adventure in Venezuela.
It is impossible to decipher Putin’s intentions or the limits of his appetites.
He emerged from the vaults of the KGB, carrying its Soviet wounds. As for
predicting Trump’s surprises, even the most advanced models of artificial
intelligence and the most renowned fortune-tellers plead ignorance. Accordingly,
the world appears poised for extreme turbulence.
Small or modest states must decide how to adapt to a world that is becoming less
restrained. These states, especially those plagued by infighting, have no choice
but to return to their maps. Bets on force, rupture, victory, and abrasive
dreams (even when dreams are sometimes justified) must be dropped.
A conversation I had with the late Iraqi president Jalal Talabani in Baghdad
comes to mind. “The Kurds have the right to dream of a state of their own, like
all other peoples. No Kurd can openly renounce this dream,” he told me. “But
when I look at the maps of neighboring states and their Kurds, and at the
balance of power, I choose a compromise that reconciles dreams with reality and
figures. I feel that the interests of the Kurds, if they obtain their basic
rights, would be better served by remaining within the Iraqi family than by
drowning in the deep waters of endless conflict.”
The health of maps, like the health of individuals, requires constant work.
Citizenship and institutions must be maintained to stand up to greed and
maintain the integrity of maps. This demands sense and courage, foresight, and
the openness to compromise. Maps are not preserved through force, domination,
monopolization, or clean victories. Crushing victories are temporary, even when
they endure. The road to stability always passes through fair settlements that
give all inhabitants a sense of belonging, equality before the law, respect, and
the right to difference.
Do the Lebanese have better options than life under the roof of a state- a state
that treats components and citizens equally, and bears sole responsibility for
decisions of war and peace, a state that imposes its sole authority and
monopolizes armament? All other solutions would merely perpetuate fractures and
open the door to various threats, including the entrenchment of despair in
coexistence.
Do the Libyans have a better option than returning to life under the roof of a
single state that can accommodate all regions and factions through the framework
of law and institutions? Regionalism is alarming. Small armies are inherently
hostile to development, stability, and progress. Every national fracture opens
the door to foreign meddling and turns the factions fighting it out within the
lines on the map into proxies of wars waged through them and at their expense.
Do Syrians have a better home than Syria and a just state that its Kurds,
coastal population, and Sweida can identify with on the basis of citizenship,
mutual recognition, and the rule of law?
Building stability has become a pressing task. Neither security nor safety can
be built without stability. There can be no progress or development without
stable states and sensible, just governments. The dialogue in Saudi Arabia is an
opportunity that must be seized. Success in these talks would demonstrate that
the participants seek stability in Yemen. It would also offer a model for other
states that need to maintain their maps through stability.
Selected Face Book & X tweets/ January 05/2026
Roger Bejjani
Maduro’s, Hamas’s, HZB’s, Mollarchy in Iran’s best allies are the western useful
idiots represented by millions of ignorants. In the 60’, 70’, 80’ and 90’ the
useful idiots were few hundreds of intellectuals claiming (falsely) the high
moral grounds, while creating narratives backing all despots worldwide.
Nowadays, useful idiots have grossed-up to millions of poorly informed people,
under the influence of superficial buzzes on social media and who can be easily
defined as ignorants and…..real idiots.
Hanin Ghaddar
As pressure on Hezbollah escalates, the group’s media arm seems to have started
an orchestrated campaign against @MorganOrtagus . It’s not the first time, and
they’ve been after her since day one, but this time, they’re targeting the
personal and private aspects of her life. This campaign only screams desperation
and helplessness. Here are some samples - all of which are Hezbollah or
pro-Hezbollah accounts. There are many more.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
Today, I appointed Chrystia Freeland @cafreeland as an Advisor on Economic
Development. Chrystia is highly skilled in these matters and has extensive
experience in attracting investment and implementing economic transformations.
Right now, Ukraine needs to strengthen its internal resilience – both for the
sake of Ukraine’s recovery if diplomacy delivers results as swiftly as possible,
and to reinforce our defense if, because of delays by our partners, it takes
longer to bring this war to an end. I am grateful to everyone who is ready to
support our state and our engagement with partners. Glory to Ukraine!
Lindsey Graham
https://x.com/i/status/2008010963510075799
One by one, President @realDonaldTrump is showing the world what real leadership
looks like.Narcoterrorist dictators are on notice, and America is safer because
of it.
Mark Carney
I spoke with María Corina Machado today. I affirmed Canada’s support for a
peaceful, Venezuelan-led transition of power — one that respects the democratic
will of the Venezuelan people.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
I’m sure Hezbollah would be thrilled to see the post below tarnishing the
reputation of Ortagus, the toughest advocate for the pro-Iran militia’s
disarmament. The U.S. envoy to Lebanon before Ortagus was rumored to have a
mistress in Beirut. The U.S. envoy to Syria is also rumored to have someone in
Beirut. No one ever heard about these, probably because they were men and
probably because Hezbollah liked them. In any case, such affairs are private.
What matters to us is policy, which Ortagus has conducted brilliantly.
Michel Hajji Georgiou
There are, in the image of Nicolás Maduro being captured in New York as a vulgar
drug dealer, accents of Vercingetorix paraded as a war trophy in Rome against
Jules Caesar, in September '52, after the siege of Alésia. It is certainly not
about shedding crocodile tears on a populist dictator, at the head of a
recalciting state. Maduro, besides, is neither Lumumba nor Che Guevara. Just a
chant of what Latin America has always been able to produce in its darkest
hours: characters from the Patriarch Gabriel Garcia Marquez' Autumn, whose
external flamboyance remains without any panache. Spectral. Ridiculous. (... )
My edit on the Maduro case - it's here:
https://levanttime.com/.../f6d70f2f-0fe9-44be-a0a9...
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
The Left's biggest problem is that it always demands what is ideal, never what
is doable. Policies cannot be the best case scenario on paper. They require the
highest dose of reality possible. When drafting a policy, it's not enough to
tell people how to do things. It is imperative to take into consideration how
far can any policy make people go -- how much tax they're ok paying, how
receptive are they to new ideas and change in what they have.
Leadership is about convincing people that making hard choices will eventually
be in their best interest, and when people do make these choices and the
experiment fails, leadership is to take responsibility for failure, step aside
and allow the next generation of leaders to assess and renew.
The Left today is ossified. It preaches a fixed set of old ideas without
questioning them. When their ideas fail, they blame others. This is neither Left
nor leadership. And on top of it, the Left expects intellectuals to join them
and justify them. Those who don't are often vilified. There's no change or
progress without challenging herd behavior and thinking.
Video-Link/Said Ghotass on the Lebanese Israeli Border
https://www.facebook.com/reel/899169079286550
Under the Cedar Tree, a Foundation for Peace
Under the Cedar Tree, a Foundation for Peace · Original audio
Under the Cedar Tree is dedicated to Growing Peace from the Roots Up. We are
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