English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News
& Editorials
For February 23/2026
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2026/english.february23.26.htm
News Bulletin Achieves Since
2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Click On
The Below Link To Join Elias Bejjaninews whatsapp group
https://chat.whatsapp.com/FPF0N7lE5S484LNaSm0MjW
اضغط
على الرابط في
أعلى للإنضمام
لكروب
Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group
Elias Bejjani/Click on
the below link to subscribe to my youtube channel
الياس
بجاني/اضغط
على الرابط في
أسفل للإشتراك في
موقعي ع اليوتيوب
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAOOSioLh1GE3C1hp63Camw
Bible Quotations For today
The eye is the lamp of the body. So, if your
eye is healthy, your whole body will be full of light
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 06/22-24:
"‘The eye is the lamp of the body. So, if your eye is healthy, your whole body
will be full of light; but if your eye is unhealthy, your whole body will be
full of darkness. If then the light in you is darkness, how great is the
darkness! ‘No one can serve two masters; for a slave will either hate the one
and love the other, or be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot
serve God and wealth."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February
22-23/2026
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video (Arabic &
English): Hezbollah is an army of mercenaries entirely subordinate to the
Iranian Mullahs; therefore, negotiations regarding its weapons and the means to
uproot it from Lebanon must be conducted with Iran under international & Arabic
sponsorship.
Hezbollah vows resistance after deadly Israeli strike
Speaker Berri to Asharq Al-Awsat: No support for delaying elections or extending
Parliament’s term
Lebanon’s Public Transport Authority denies any change in bus fares
US to be represented at Cairo meeting as Ambassador remains in Beirut: Arab
Diplomatic sources to LBCI
Lebanese Army shifts focus to borders amid security, equipment, and funding
challenges ahead of Paris Conference
Israel signals readiness to escalate in Lebanon as Iran tensions rise: The
details
Washington Sets Its Sights on Bolstering Lebanon-Israel Talks; Cool Towards Army
Aid Conference
U.S. Assistance Conditioned on Rapid Progress in Disarmament
Accelerating Electoral Activity: Sovereignist Consultations Advance while
Resistance Alliances Solidify
Iran must not be allowed to use nuclear talks as a diversion/Nadim Shehadi/Arab
News/February 22, 2026
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on February
22-23/2026
Secret Service Kills Armed Man Trying to Access Trump Florida Estate
Armed Intruder Shot and Killed After Breaching Mar‑a‑Lago Perimeter in
Early‑Morning Attack
Oman confirms US-Iran talks in Geneva on Thursday
Witkoff Says Trump Questioning why Iran Has Not 'Capitulated'
Senior Iranian Official: New Talks with US Planned in Early March, Interim Deal
Possible
Will Trump Accept a ‘Token’ Nuclear Enrichment in Iran?
Iran Reportedly Agreed Secret Shoulder-fired Missile Deal with Russia
EU Says US Must Honor a Trade Deal after Court Blocks Trump Tariffs
'No thanks', Greenland PM says of Trump offer to send US Navy hospital ship
Hamas official says group in final stage of choosing new chief
Netanyahu Says India's Modi to Visit Israel Wednesday
US Ambassador Causes Uproar by Claiming Israel has a Right to Much of the Middle
East
Palestinian Foreign Ministry Condemns US Ambassador to Israel’s Statements
Syrian President Confident in Implementation of SDF Agreement
IS Urges Members to Fight Syria's New Government
Syria Closes ISIS-linked al-Hol Camp after Emptying it
Mexican Army Kills Leader of Jalisco New Generation Cartel
Russian missile barrage hits energy, railways across Ukraine
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources published
on February
22-23/2026
Iran: When Ayatollahs Lampoon the Clergy/Amir Taheri/Gatestone
Institute/February 22, 2026
Erdogan's Sunni Noose: Turkey's Bid to Encircle Israel/Pierre Rehov/Gatestone
Institute/February 22, 2026
Between delay and indecisiveness: Iran buys time as Trump faces the critical
moment/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya English/February 22/2026
Why would the US want a war with Iran?/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab
News/February 22, 2026
Megacities set to grow in importance/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/February 22, 2026
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February
22-23/2026
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video
(Arabic & English): Hezbollah is an army of mercenaries entirely subordinate to
the Iranian Mullahs; therefore, negotiations regarding its weapons and the means
to uproot it from Lebanon must be conducted with Iran under international &
Arabic sponsorship.
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2026/02/152238/
February 17/2026
Emphasis on Hezbollah’s Iranian Alignment
In a statement issued byHezbollah on February 16, 1985, it declared that it is
“committed to the commands of a wise and just leadership embodied in the ولاية
الفقيه (Guardianship of the Jurist), represented by Ruhollah Khomeini, the
Ayatollah al-Mousawi, the instigator of the Muslims’ revolution and the reviver
of their glorious renaissance.”
In an interview published in the Lebanese newspaper As-Safir in February 1988,
Hassan Nasrallah stated:“Our project, which we have no choice but to adopt as
ideological believers, is the project of an Islamic state and the rule of Islam,
and that Lebanon should not be a single Islamic republic but rather part of the
greater Islamic Republic, ruled by the Awaited Imam and his rightful نائب
(deputy), the Jurist-Guardian, Imam Khomeini.”
Elias Bejjani: Key Points In my Video Commentary
*Legal Necessity: Legally, Lebanon is required to negotiate with Iran—under
Arab, International, and American supervision—regarding the weaponry, existence,
and institutions of Hezbollah, which are subordinate to Iran and act upon its
orders.
*The “Army, People, Resistance” Heresy: This formula is unconstitutional and was
forcibly inserted into ministerial statements. Legislation originates from the
Parliament, not from a ministerial statement, which is merely a proposed action
plan.
*Eternal Enmity: The concept of “eternal enmity” is a sick sectarian ideology
promoted by both Sunni and Shia political Islam to trade in conflict and justify
their continued existence.
*Iranian Command: Hezbollah’s decision-making lies in Iran and is governed by ”
Sharia mandates” (Taklif Shari).
*A Captive Community: The Shia community has been kidnapped and held hostage
since 1982.
*Foreign Identity: Hezbollah is an Iranian army composed of Lebanese
mercenaries.
*Lack of Legitimacy: Hezbollah has never been legitimate, Lebanese, or a
“resistance”; it is a terrorist organization by virtue of its “Mullah-inspired”
composition.
*The Lebanese Army: The Lebanese Army is capable of disarming Hezbollah if the
State officially tasks it with this mission.
*Israeli Actions: Israel has never once committed aggression against Lebanon;
rather, it has always reacted to attacks launched against it from Lebanese
territory by Syrian, Arab, Iranian, Jihadist, and Leftist factions.
*The Liberation Myth: Hezbollah did not liberate the South; it is not part of
the Lebanese social fabric, and it does not represent the Shia. It is a
fully-fledged Iranian army made up of Lebanese mercenaries.
*Ending the “Arena” Status: It is required today, not tomorrow, to close the
“Lebanese Arena,” which has been open since the Cairo Agreement to all those who
trade—with obscenity, hypocrisy, and lies—in the name of “Resistance and the
Liberation of Palestine.”
*The Only Solution: The sole solution is full peace with the State of Israel.
Whoever wishes to fight Israel should do so from their own country.
*Defense vs. Offense: The Lebanese Army is a defensive, not an offensive force.
The majority of Lebanese do not view Israel as an enemy but as a neighbor,
noting that there are no inherent problems between Lebanon and Israel, and
Israel has no ambitions within Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah vows resistance after deadly Israeli strike
Agence France Presse/February 22/2026
Hezbollah warned that it would have no choice but to fight on after an Israeli
strike on targets in Lebanon killed eight of its operatives. Lebanon's
government has vowed to disarm Hezbollah, but Israel insists it retains the
right to defend itself by striking the Iran-backed militant group. On Friday,
the Israeli military said it had hit Hezbollah command centres in eastern
Lebanon and targets linked to the Palestinian group Hamas in the south.
Hezbollah said Saturday that eight of its fighters had been killed, after
Lebanon's health ministry said 10 people died in the east and two in the south.
"What happened yesterday in the Bekaa is a new massacre and a new aggression,"
Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qalmati said, in a speech broadcast by the Al-Manar
network. "What option do we have left to defend ourselves and our country? What
option do we have other than resistance? We no longer have any option."
President Joseph Aoun also condemned the attacks, which came just days after the
government said the army will start implementing the second phase of its plan to
disarm Hezbollah in the south of the country. The strikes came as tensions were
also building between the United States and Iran, with U.S. President Donald
Trump threatening military action over the Islamic republic's nuclear program.
Iran backs several armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah and Hamas. In
Lebanon's eastern city of Baalbek, a mass funeral was held for commander Hussein
Mohammad Yaghi and one of the fighters, with hundreds of people gathered, waving
Hezbollah flags and chanting support. A Hezbollah official, speaking on
condition of anonymity, told AFP all eight members of the group were attending a
meeting in the eastern Bekaa region when a strike killed them. The Israeli
military said it had targeted "several terrorists of Hezbollah's missile array
in three different command centers in the Baalbek area." An AFP correspondent in
eastern Lebanon saw a bulldozer clearing debris following the strike on Bednayel,
and a heavily damaged building between Riyak and Ali al-Nahri, where the
Hezbollah official said the members were meeting. The raids were against targets
in residential areas, according to the correspondent. They came hours after an
Israeli strike on the country's largest Palestinian refugee camp in the south
killed two people, according to the health ministry, with Israel's army saying
it had targeted Hamas. In a statement, Hamas condemned the attack, which it said
led to civilian casualties as the targeted building "belongs to the joint
security force charged with maintaining security and stability in the camp."
'Act of aggression'
Israel has kept up regular strikes on Lebanon despite a November 2024 ceasefire
that sought to halt more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah, usually
saying it is targeting the group, but occasionally also Hamas militants. Aoun
called Friday's attacks "a blatant act of aggression aimed at thwarting
diplomatic efforts" by the United States and other nations to establish
stability. Washington is one of five members of a multinational committee
overseeing the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with the body scheduled
to meet again next week. Hezbollah lawmaker Rami Abu Hamdan said the group "will
not accept the authorities acting as mere political analysts, dismissing these
as Israeli strikes we have grown accustomed to before every meeting of the
committee." He called on authorities to "suspend the committee's meetings until
the enemy ceases its attacks." Lebanon's government last year committed to
disarming the group, with the army saying last month it had completed the first
phase of the plan covering the area near the Israeli border. Israel, which
accuses Hezbollah of rearming since the war, has called the Lebanese army's
progress on disarming the militant group insufficient. Against the backdrop of
the tensions between Washington and Iran, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said last
month that any attack on the group's backer would also be an attack on the
militants.
Speaker
Berri to Asharq Al-Awsat: No support for delaying elections or extending
Parliament’s term
LBCI/February 22/2026
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said in remarks published by the newspaper
‘’Asharq Al-Awsat’': I was the first to declare my commitment to holding the
elections, to prevent anyone from trying to blame me for a technical
postponement or an extension of parliament’s term.
He added that anyone seeking to postpone the elections should assume
responsibility for that decision rather than shifting the blame onto others.
Berri also informed ambassadors of Quintet Committee that he does not support a
technical delay of the parliamentary elections or an extension of parliament’s
mandate.
Lebanon’s Public Transport Authority denies any change in
bus fares
LBCI/February 22/2026
To clarify certain analyses and reports circulating in some media outlets and on
social media, the Railway and Public Transport Authority confirmed that no
changes have been made to public transport fares on any of its bus routes, and
that prices remain unchanged.
US to be represented at Cairo meeting as Ambassador remains in Beirut: Arab
Diplomatic sources to LBCI
LBCI/February 22/2026
Arab Diplomatic sources told LBCI that the United States will be represented at
the upcoming Cairo meeting by an official whose name will be announced at a
later date. The sources said that Ambassador Michel Issa will not be able to
leave Beirut for administrative reasons related to managing embassy operations
in the absence of a deputy chief of mission.
Lebanese Army shifts focus to borders amid security, equipment, and funding
challenges ahead of Paris Conference
LBCI/February 22/2026
“Here come the 16.” The phrase was once enough to spread fear among Lebanese,
referring to the jeeps of the 16th Brigade of the Internal Security Forces,
which was established during the term of President Fouad Chehab and remained
active until 1975.
That year, the Lebanese Civil War erupted, state authority collapsed, and chaos
spread across the country. In 1989, a regional settlement was reached with the
signing of the Taif Agreement. The war ended, militias were dissolved, and the
Lebanese army was reunified. In 1991, the army was tasked with supporting the
Internal Security Forces in maintaining domestic security. Maintaining security
and public order falls primarily within the mandate of the Internal Security
Forces, while the Lebanese army’s core mission is to defend the country and
protect its borders. Over the years, successive presidents and prime ministers
took office, and with political shifts came fluctuations in the strength and
presence of each security agency. Today, a decision has been made to task the
army with consolidating control over weapons, a move that requires it to focus
on its core mission of defending the borders and, consequently, to reduce its
role in internal security operations. Against this backdrop, the Quintet
Committee is preparing to support both the Lebanese army and the security forces
at a donor conference scheduled in Paris on March 5, preceded by a preparatory
meeting in Cairo. The meeting is expected to be attended by Lebanese Armed
Forces Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal and Internal Security Forces Director
General Maj. Gen. Raed Abdallah. The army, which is expected to expand its
deployment south, north, and east, will have to redeploy units from inside the
country to the borders. This has already occurred in areas such as Manara in
Beirut, where a regiment was withdrawn and transferred to the south, while
another unit expanded its duties and security forces intensified patrols in the
area. So far, the army has not left a security vacuum, which officials say would
create vulnerabilities. This underscores the need to secure support for the
security forces. The Internal Security Forces, tasked with riot control and
crime prevention, face shortages in ammunition and military vehicles, many of
which are already in poor condition. Traffic units responsible for enforcing
road laws lack sufficient motorcycles, and police stations that are supposed to
perform judicial police functions face shortages of basic supplies. In addition,
the value of salaries for enlisted personnel and officers has sharply declined
as a result of the financial crisis. These issues are expected to be raised by
Maj. Gen. Abdallah at the Cairo meeting as a central item on a list of demands
overseen directly by Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar.
Israel signals readiness to escalate in Lebanon as Iran tensions rise: The
details
LBCI/February 22/2026
In what Israel describes as a “mowing the grass” operation, the Israeli army’s
air force and navy carried out strikes deep inside Lebanon, specifically in the
Bekaa region, in what Israel considers a preemptive attack aimed at undermining
Hezbollah’s ability to intervene in any war involving Iran. According to more
than one security official and intelligence reports, the attack was carried out
after assessments indicated that Hezbollah would intervene in any forthcoming
war and that its members were undergoing training by Iranian experts. The
operation was described as part of a series of accelerated strikes Israel
intends to conduct to destroy Hezbollah’s missile capabilities. The strikes
targeted villages in the Baalbek and Zahle districts in the Bekaa, in addition
to the Ain al-Hilweh camp in southern Lebanon. The attacks resulted in the
killing of leaders from Hezbollah and others from Hamas.
According to the details, the strike on Ain al-Hilweh camp was carried out by a
naval vessel that launched surface-to-surface missiles from off the Lebanese
coast. The target was Hamas leaders who, according to Israel, had recently been
working to strengthen preparations for operations against the Israeli army in
Lebanon and inside Israel. The Bekaa strikes were carried out by six fighter
jets and aimed at eliminating any attempt to use Hezbollah’s missile
capabilities. In both cases, the message, according to Israeli army spokesperson
Effie Defrin, was that Tel Aviv would use very significant force if anyone in
Lebanon attempted to exploit the crisis with Iran to challenge the Israeli army.
The strikes came hours before a meeting of the Israeli security cabinet, which
was postponed from Thursday to Sunday following talks between officials in Tel
Aviv and Washington that concluded the likelihood of reaching an agreement with
Iran had become slim. On Friday, the head of the Israeli army’s Manpower
Directorate, Dado Bar Kalifa, said Israel is currently facing seven fronts, as
well as what he described as Iran’s plan, together with its proxies, to
eliminate the Jewish state.
Washington Sets Its Sights on Bolstering Lebanon-Israel Talks; Cool Towards Army
Aid Conference
U.S. Assistance Conditioned on Rapid Progress in Disarmament
Amal Shemouni/Nidaa al-Watan/February 23/2026 (Translated from Arabic)
As the world anticipates President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on
February 24 before a joint session of Congress, all eyes are on new American
political signals toward the Middle East and how the next phase will be defined.
Based on the tone of his recent speech to the Peace Council, Trump is expected
to emphasize a decisive approach toward Hezbollah, marking a new era of U.S.
engagement in Lebanon. A White House source confirmed that Washington will not
stand "idly by while Tehran’s proxies threaten America’s allies and undermine
the hopes of the Lebanese people," adding, "This ends now. Expect a
transformative new phase of American dealing." The "End of Ambiguity" and
Conditional Aid With Beirut announcing a second phase of Army deployment north
of the Litani River (expected to take 4–8 months), U.S. diplomatic sources have
issued a sharp, "undiplomatic" warning: Future U.S. aid is now "conditional on
clear and rapid progress in disarmament, specifically regarding Hezbollah." A
Congressional source noted that Trump has made it clear to Lebanese officials
that "the era of ambiguity is over." Any extension of support must be paired
with verifiable steps toward disarmament and border security; otherwise,
American backing will be reconsidered. This sentiment was echoed by a U.S.
military source who stated that while the Pentagon understands the Lebanese
Army’s constraints, "extending deadlines is no substitute for getting the job
done."
Lukewarm Response to the Army Support Conference
Despite Beirut’s efforts to stabilize its economy, U.S. officials are
emphasizing that "time is a real factor, not a theory." Sources indicate that
Washington is not showing its usual enthusiasm for the upcoming conference to
support the Lebanese Army. Experts suggest this reflects a lack of full
satisfaction with Lebanon's justifications for the slow pace of reform, despite
acknowledging the Cabinet's recent steps to extend state authority.
Pushing Lebanon-Israel Talks and New Sanctions
Sources close to the National Security Council (NSC) indicate a push for new
frameworks to advance talks between Lebanon and Israel. The administration views
strong pressure for disarmament as a way to prevent Israeli military escalation
and protect recent regional gains.
To support these efforts, the U.S. team handling the "Lebanon file" is expected
to expand soon to assist U.S. Ambassador Mitchell Issa. Meanwhile, Lebanon
should expect visits from Treasury Department officials, as the U.S. ramps up
sanctions against elites allied with Hezbollah.The core of this 2026 strategy
remains constant: leveraging Iran’s regional setbacks to deprive Hezbollah of
resources. While Lebanon describes its second phase of military deployment as a
work in progress, Washington views these "elastic" timelines as a complication
that may trigger stricter conditions on all future military support.
Accelerating Electoral Activity: Sovereignist Consultations
Advance while Resistance Alliances Solidify
Nidaa al-Watan/February 23/2026 (Translated from Arabic)
Nidaa al-Watan has learned that serious electoral negotiations are set to resume
this week between the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) and the Lebanese Forces
(LF). In the same context, consultations continue between the Lebanese Forces
and the Kataeb Party, involving discussions on minute details across various
electoral districts. However, all possibilities remain open, especially as talks
move into deeper specifics. According to available data, the Lebanese Forces may
have a broader margin for negotiation, particularly with political powers that
share its political stance and vision for Lebanon.
The Pro-Hezbollah Front
Conversely, reports indicate that the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)—despite
recent public attempts to distance itself from Hezbollah—is practically moving
toward solidifying alliances with the group in multiple districts. This is
expected to occur alongside a projected alliance with the Amal Movement and the
Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP).
International Pressure and Electoral Appeals
In parallel, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s insistence on holding the
elections on schedule is being framed as a message to the international
community. This comes amid increasing talk of international pressure exerted on
him to ensure the constitutional deadline is respected.
Regarding rumors of legal appeals that MP Gebran Bassil and others might
file—specifically concerning District 16 (the diaspora district)—monitoring
sources suggest these are merely formal procedures for media consumption and are
unlikely to yield any practical results.
Iran must not be allowed to use nuclear talks as a diversion
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/February 22, 2026
ons over Iran’s nuclear weapons, possibly with a limited or even a comprehensive
war as the other means of dealing with the Islamic Republic. Whatever happens in
the coming days and weeks, these negotiations and any resulting arrangement
should not give the Tehran regime a license to kill its own population or
continue destabilizing the region. To negotiate with Iran on the nuclear issue
alone is to repeat the mistakes of the past, granting the regime legitimacy
while ignoring the regional machinery of repression and proxy warfare that
sustains it.
It has happened before. When a regime feels threatened, either by its own people
or by international pressure, weapons of mass destruction become the perfect
diversion. Saddam Hussein strung along UN inspectors in the 1990s while crushing
uprisings. Muammar Qaddafi rehabilitated his image in the early 2000s by
renouncing WMDs. Bashar Assad avoided US intervention in 2013 by agreeing to
dismantle his chemical arsenal.
Then there was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or Iran nuclear deal, a
version of which is now being revived. The pattern is simple: declaring
readiness to negotiate over nuclear or chemical weapons immediately triggers an
administrative reaction involving international organizations and bureaucracies
with inspectors, fact-finding missions and rounds of technical negotiations.
This gives regimes time and credibility and diverts attention from whatever else
they do to their people.
Negotiations give regimes time and credibility and divert attention from
whatever else they do to their people
The trick never fails, perhaps for cultural reasons in the West, with
generations raised under the influence of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.
“Ban the bomb” was a powerful slogan that engaged progressives, artists and
politicians around the moral urgency of preventing a nuclear war. If you were
not brought up wearing the peace symbol on your blue jeans and humming John
Lennon and Yoko Ono’s “Imagine,” then your parents were.
These were the icons and the hymn of CND for a rebel generation during the Cold
War, the Vietnam conflict, student protests, women’s movements and beyond. Films
such as “Planet of the Apes,” “Dr. Strangelove” and “Threads” further dramatized
the problem and it all became the primary moral cause in the West. Nuclear talks
were seen as progress. CND was synonymous with universal good.
It seems Iran’s communications experts understood that and used it effectively —
and they had precedents from which to learn. One cannot exaggerate the cost of
such diversions, not only for the countries involved but also the region. We are
still suffering the consequences.
Saddam’s regime was at its weakest and about to fall in 1991. After the
Iran-Iraq War, the invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War that liberated Kuwait, he
was facing a countrywide uprising. That is when he agreed to the WMD inspections
scheme, which kept the world busy while he was allowed to brutally crush the
revolt. Inspectors were in the country while this was happening. His troops
entered towns and villages and executed people to reestablish terror and regain
control.
The sanctions imposed on Iraq only helped Saddam consolidate his power, while
they crippled the economy, destroyed the health system and resulted in poverty
and malnutrition. Refugees flooded into Jordan, Syria and Lebanon and the middle
class was mostly eradicated. The combined effect was a society impoverished,
fragmented and terrorized, with cultural devastation layered atop humanitarian
catastrophe. Iraq is still recovering from that blunder in 1991.
In 2013, Assad’s regime had lost control of most of Syria and the loyalty of the
army. The country was about to fall. In addition, he had crossed a red line that
US President Barack Obama had set the year before. The red line itself was an
excuse not to intervene after a major massacre in Syria, a carte blanche with
conditions: It allowed the regime to continue its carnage as long as it did not
use chemical weapons. It was the chemical weapons that were the red line, not
the massacres. But in August 2013, an attack on Ghouta, near Damascus, used
sarin gas and caused mass casualties, meaning Obama was again under pressure to
intervene. To avoid this, the Russians mediated and proposed a dismantling of
Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal.
One cannot exaggerate the cost of such diversions, not only for the countries
involved but also the region
The trick worked again: the intervention was called off and the inspectors came
in, doing their work and completely ignoring the fact that Iran, Russia and
Hezbollah came to the rescue. More than 6 million refugees were forced out of
the country and a similar number were internally displaced, while Aleppo, Homs
and Eastern Ghouta were reduced to rubble through aerial bombardment and
artillery campaigns. Prolonged starvation sieges in places such as Madaya and
Ghouta became notorious, while tens of thousands of Syrians disappeared into
regime prisons, where torture was systemic.
Fighters affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from Iraq and
Hezbollah from Lebanon provided the ground forces, while Russia supplied the air
power and diplomatic cover, ensuring Assad’s survival. The opposition was
crushed and the country destroyed, leaving the regime entrenched but presiding
over a devastated, depopulated country. When you think of the damage done to
Syria, of the refugee crisis or the EU crisis itself, remember that this was the
consequence of another WMD deal.
Iran perfected this tactic with the 2015 nuclear deal. While the world obsessed
over centrifuges and enrichment levels, Tehran expanded its proxy network,
propped up Assad and entrenched itself in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine.
The nuclear deal gave Iran sanctions relief and diplomatic respectability, while
its IRGC grew stronger in the shadows.
The US proudly signed the JCPOA on condition that it did not bring up any of
Iran’s interventions in the region. It even withdrew from Yemen in denial that
Iran had anything to do with the Houthis. The consequences became clear after
the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, when Iran’s proxies acted in concert across multiple
fronts. Lobbyists for the Iran deal managed to raise funds from both the
isolationist right and the non-interventionist left and we are still paying the
price of another WMD diversion.
Military and technical experts will be turned loose to confuse us but the focus
must be that the Iranian regime should be engaged on the full spectrum of its
behavior — from domestic repression to proxy wars — or we risk repeating the
same costly mistakes. Nobody can afford another nuclear deal charade.
The lesson is simple: Whatever happens next with Iran, nuclear diplomacy cannot
be used as a diversion from regional realities. WMD diplomacy must also involve
the interests of the Arab states and engage them in it. The JCPOA was neither
joint nor a plan of action. Such negotiations have worked as a diversionary
tactic for endangered regimes from Saddam to Assad. But for Iran, this may be
one time too many.
**Nadim Shehadi is an economist and political adviser. X: @Confusezeus
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published
on February
22-23/2026
Secret Service Kills Armed Man
Trying to Access Trump Florida Estate
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
US Secret Service agents fatally shot a man armed with a shotgun who breached
the security perimeter of President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm
Beach, Florida in the early hours of Sunday morning. Although the president
often spends weekends at his resort, he and first lady Melania Trump were at the
White House when the breach occurred.Officials said the incident happened around
1:30 am (0630 GMT). The suspect was spotted by the north gate of the Mar-a-Lago
property, carrying a shotgun and a fuel can, the Secret Service said. Agents
confronted the man and told him to disarm but he raised his gun.He was
identified as Austin Tucker Martin, 21, of North Carolina. "The only words that
we said to him was 'drop the items,'" Palm Beach County sheriff Ric Bradshaw
told reporters. "At which time he put down the gas can, raised the shotgun to a
shooting position," Bradshaw said. A deputy and two Secret Service agents then
shot him. The man was pronounced deceased and no US officers were injured. The
Secret Service said no one under its protection was present in Mar-a-Lago at the
time. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt blamed Democrats for an
ongoing partial government shutdown affecting the Department of Homeland
Security, which includes the Secret Service."It's shameful and reckless that
Democrats have chosen to shut down their Department," she wrote on X. Democrats
oppose any new funding for DHS until major changes are implemented in the way
the Trump administration conducts its massive and sometimes violent deportation
campaign. Trump has been the target of several assassination plots or attempts.
Earlier this month, Ryan Routh, 59, who plotted to assassinate the
president at a Florida golf course in September 2024, two months before the last
US election, was sentenced to life in prison. Routh's planned attack on Trump
came two months after an assassination attempt on the Republican leader in
Pennsylvania, where 20-year-old Matthew Crooks fired several shots during a
rally, one of them grazing Trump's right ear. That attack, in which a rallygoer
was killed, proved to be a turning point in Trump's return to power. It yielded
a now famous photo of a bloodied Trump raising his fist to the crowd and urging
his followers to "fight, fight."Crooks was immediately shot and killed by
security forces and his motive remains unknown.
Armed Intruder Shot and Killed After Breaching Mar‑a‑Lago
Perimeter in Early‑Morning Attack
Douglas V. Gibbs/Canada Free Press/February 22, 2026
For now, the United States is left confronting the reality that political
violence has reached a level unseen in modern American history;
In the early morning hours of February 22, 2026, an armed intruder in his early
twenties was shot and killed after breaching the secure perimeter of Mar‑a‑Lago,
the private residence of President Donald Trump, in Palm Beach, Florida.
According to multiple law‑enforcement briefings, the suspect carried a shotgun
and a fuel can, and advanced far enough into the property to reach the interior
grounds before being confronted by U.S. Secret Service agents and a Palm Beach
County Sheriff’s deputy.
The confrontation occurred at approximately 1:30 a.m., when the suspect,
described as a young male from North Carolina who had recently been reported
missing by his family, entered the property as another vehicle was exiting.
Agents observed him near the north gate, carrying the shotgun and fuel can. When
law enforcement challenged him, the suspect dropped the fuel can, assumed a
shooter’s stance, and raised the shotgun toward officers. He was immediately
shot and pronounced dead at the scene.
President Trump was not at Mar‑a‑Lago during the attack. He was attending a
governors’ dinner in Washington, D.C., and the First Lady was also away from the
residence.
This incident marks the third known assassination attempt against President
Trump while in office; an unprecedented moment in American history. While the
investigation is ongoing and officials have not yet released a motive or any
details, the presence of a fuel can alongside a long gun raises serious
questions about the intruder’s intentions.
A common shotgun is not a weapon that would likely accomplish an assassination.
The suspect may have known that the President was not home and may have intended
to destroy the residence by fire – a suspicion I have due to the presence of the
fuel can. Authorities have not confirmed nor even entertained this
interpretation, but the combination of a firearm and accelerant strongly
suggests a plan involving both lethal force and property destruction.
What We Know About the Suspect So Far
Male, early 20s
From North Carolina
Reported missing by family days earlier
Picked up the shotgun while traveling south
A box for the weapon was found in his vehicle
No name has been released as of this writing.
The U.S. Secret Service, Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office, and the FBI are
jointly investigating the incident. Officials have emphasized that they will not
speculate on motive until more evidence is gathered. Early statements confirm:
The suspect breached the secure perimeter.
He advanced onto the property with a shotgun and fuel can.
He raised the weapon at agents before being shot.
Officers were wearing body-cams.
No officers were injured.
A full forensic analysis of the suspect’s vehicle, digital devices, and travel
history is underway.
The attack underscores a disturbing escalation in politically motivated
violence. For the first time in American history, a sitting President has now
been targeted three separate times by would‑be assassins. Each incident has
occurred against the backdrop of increasingly hostile rhetoric, radicalization,
and the normalization of political extremism.
While officials have not yet identified the suspect’s ideological leanings, the
pattern of recent threats against President Trump has overwhelmingly originated
from individuals influenced by radical left‑wing narratives, online extremism,
or anti‑Trump political hostility. Whether this case fits that pattern remains
to be confirmed, but the circumstances (armed intrusion, accelerant, nighttime
approach) suggest a deliberate and potentially symbolic act.
This morning’s attack raises several urgent national‑security questions:
How is it that the suspect so easily reached the interior grounds before
engagement?
Was the fuel can intended for arson, destruction of property, or diversion?
Did the suspect believe the President was home?
Are there online footprints or communications indicating motive or coordination?
Does this represent a broader trend of escalating threats against federal
protectees?
Until investigators release more information, these remain open but critical
questions.
What is clear is this: an armed intruder with a shotgun and a fuel can
penetrated the secure perimeter of the sitting President’s home, advanced into
the property, and assumed a firing position before being neutralized. The rapid
response of the Secret Service and local deputies prevented what could have been
a catastrophic attack, whether aimed at the President himself or at destroying
his residence in an act of political vengeance.
As more details emerge, this story will likely grow in scope and significance.
For now, the United States is left confronting the reality that political
violence has reached a level unseen in modern American history.
https://canadafreepress.com/article/armed-intruder-shot-and-killed-after-breaching-maralago-perimeter-in-earlymorning-attack
Oman confirms US-Iran talks in Geneva on Thursday
Al Arabiya English/22 February/2026
Negotiators from Iran and the United States will meet again in Geneva on
Thursday, the foreign minister of regional mediator Oman confirmed. In a social
media post from his own account, Badr al-busaidi said talks would resume “with a
positive push to go the extra mile towards finalizing the deal.”Earlier on
Sunday, Iran’s top diplomat said that his country would strike back at US
interests in the Middle East in the event of an attack, though he still saw a
chance for a diplomatic resolution. Speaking to US broadcaster CBS, Foreign
Minister Abbas Araghchi said he expected new talks on the details of a deal, as
fears loomed of renewed conflict after Washington carried out a major
redeployment of military assets to the region. US threats of military action
have multiplied since a nationwide protest movement sparked a major crackdown
that rights groups say killed thousands of people. On
Sunday, Iranian students held competing pro- and anti-government protests at
several universities, with critics of the clerical leadership risking arrest or
worse if they are caught. “If the US attacks us, then
we have every right to defend ourselves,” Araghchi said, alluding to American
interests in the region as potential targets. Still, he said, “there is a good
chance to have a diplomatic solution.”After a recent round of talks in Geneva,
Iran said it was preparing a draft proposal for an agreement that would avert
military action. Trump curious why Iran has not ‘capitulated’ amid US military
buildup, says Witkoff
Middle East
Trump curious why Iran has not ‘capitulated’ amid US military buildup, says
Witkoff
“I believe that when we meet, probably this Thursday in Geneva again, we can
work on those elements and prepare a good text and come to a fast deal,”
Araghchi told CBS. Axios had earlier reported, citing
an unnamed senior US official, that if Iran submitted its proposal in the next
48 hours, Washington was ready to meet again later in the week “to start
detailed negotiations.”The US has sent two aircraft carriers to the Middle East
in recent weeks, along with other jets and ships, and has also shored up its air
defenses in the region to back up its threats of military intervention. Western
governments fear Iran’s nuclear program is aimed at developing a bomb, which
Tehran has long denied, though it insists on its right to enrich uranium for
civilian purposes. On the subject of enrichment, Araghchi said Sunday: “As a
sovereign country, we have every right to decide for ourselves, by ourselves.”A
previous round of diplomacy last year was interrupted by Israel’s bombing
campaign against the Islamic republic. That sparked a 12-day conflict in June
that the US briefly joined with strikes on nuclear facilities. Iran has
previously said that quickly striking a deal is in its interests if means relief
from sanctions that have hamstrung its economy, which contributed to protests
late last year over the high cost of living. Those demonstrations quickly
expanded into mass anti-government protests that marked one of the largest
challenges to the Islamic Republic’s leadership in years, prompting a deadly
crackdown by authorities that saw thousands killed, according to rights
groups.Trump had initially cheered on the protesters, threatening to intervene
on their behalf amid the crackdown, but his threats soon shifted to Iran’s
nuclear program.With AFP
Witkoff Says Trump Questioning why Iran Has Not
'Capitulated'
Washington: Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
US envoy Steve Witkoff said on Saturday that President Donald Trump is
questioning why Iran has not "capitulated" in the face of Washington's military
build-up aimed at pressuring them into a nuclear deal. The United States and
Iran this week resumed Oman-mediated talks in Geneva aimed at averting the
possibility of military action, after Washington dispatched two aircraft
carriers, jets and weaponry to the region to back its warnings.
In a Fox News interview with Trump's daughter-in-law Lara, Witkoff said
the president was "curious" about Iran's position after he had warned them of
severe consequences in the event they failed to strike a deal. "I don't want to
use the word 'frustrated,' because he understands he has plenty of alternatives,
but he's curious as to why they haven't... I don't want to use the word
'capitulated,' but why they haven't capitulated," AFP quoted him as saying.
"Why, under this pressure, with the amount of seapower and naval power
over there, why haven't they come to us and said, 'We profess we don't want a
weapon, so here's what we're prepared to do'? And yet it's sort of hard to get
them to that place."The US envoy also confirmed in the interview that he had met
with Reza Pahlavi, who has not returned to Iran since before the 1979 Iranian
Revolution that ousted the monarchy. "I met him at the
direction of the president," he said, without providing further details.
US-based Pahlavi last week told a crowd in Munich that he was ready to
lead the country to a "secular democratic future" after Trump said regime change
would be best for the country. Witkoff's comments come
after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a draft proposal for an
agreement with Washington would be ready in a matter of days.
Trump said on Thursday that Iran had at most 15 days to make a deal on
concerns starting with its nuclear program. As talks between the two nations
continued in Geneva, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Tuesday said that
Trump would not succeed in destroying the country.
Senior Iranian Official: New Talks with US Planned in Early
March, Interim Deal Possible
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
Iran and the United States have differing views over the scope and mechanism to
lift sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, a senior
Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday, adding that new talks were planned in
early March. The official said Tehran could seriously consider a combination of
exporting part of its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, diluting the
purity of its HEU and a regional consortium for enriching uranium, but in return
Iran's right to "peaceful nuclear enrichment" must be recognized. "The
negotiations continue and the possibility of reaching an interim agreement
exists," the official said. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday
that he expected to have a draft counterproposal ready within days following
nuclear talks with the United States this week, while US President Donald
Trump said he was considering limited military strikes.The senior official said
Tehran will not hand over control of its oil and mineral resources but US
companies can always participate as contractors in Iran’s oil and gas fields.
Will Trump Accept a ‘Token’ Nuclear
Enrichment in Iran?
London: Asharq Al Awsat/22 February/2026
The Trump administration is prepared to consider a proposal that allows Iran
“token” nuclear enrichment if it leaves no possible path to a bomb, a senior US
official told Axios on Saturday. This suggests there could be an opening, if
only a small one, between the red lines set by the US and Iran for a deal to
constrain Iran's nuclear capabilities and prevent war, according to Axios. The
report published this week said that after the Geneva talks, US President Donald
Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner asked Iranian Foreign Minister
Abbas Araghchi to produce a detailed proposal addressing all the US concerns
regarding Iran's nuclear program. A senior US official said Witkoff and Kushner
told Araghchi that Trump's position was “zero enrichment” on Iranian soil. But
the official said that if the proposal includes “small, token enrichment,” and
if the Iranians offer detailed proof that it poses no threat, the US will study
it.Another senior Trump adviser said: “Trump is keeping his options open. He
could decide on an attack at any moment.”
Pezeshkian: We Will Not Bow Our Heads
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that his
country would not bow its head to pressure from world powers. “World powers are
lining up to force us to bow our heads... but we will not bow our heads despite
all the problems that they are creating for us,” Pezeshkian said in a speech
carried live by state TV. But a senior US official told Axios that “Trump will
be ready to accept a deal that would be substantive and that he can sell
politically at home. If the Iranians want to prevent an attack they should give
us an offer we can't refuse. The Iranians keep missing the window. If they play
games there won't be a lot of patience.” At the same time, Trump has been
presented with military options that involve directly targeting the supreme
leader. The Trump adviser said the Pentagon had presented the US President with
numerous options. “They have something for every scenario. One scenario takes
out the ayatollah and his son and the mullahs,” the adviser said, referring to
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, who is seen as a potential
successor. “What the president chooses no one knows. I don't think he knows.”A
second source confirmed a plan to kill Khamenei and his son was floated to Trump
several weeks ago. Another senior Trump adviser said: “Trump is keeping his
options open. He could decide on an attack at any moment.”
Zero Enrichment
In return, a senior US official said Witkoff and Kushner told Araghchi that
Trump's position was “zero enrichment” on Iranian soil. But the official said
that if the proposal includes “small, token enrichment,” and if the Iranians
offer detailed proof that it poses no threat, the US will study it. A source
familiar with the talks told Axios that regional mediators told Iran and the US
in recent days that any deal must enable both sides to claim victory and, if
possible, also be something that Gulf countries can accept. With the region
bracing for war, the US official insisted that Washington would wait for Iran's
proposal before deciding how to proceed, and whether there will be another round
of talks. CBS News quoted US officials as saying on Wednesday that Iran had
floated the idea of pausing uranium enrichment for a specified period of time,
possibly one to three years or five years, while some said this period covered
the remainder of Trump's years in the White House. For his part, Araghchi said
on Friday that “Washington has not asked Tehran to permanently suspend uranium
enrichment,” adding Tehran had not offered the US a temporary suspension of its
uranium enrichment. Iran's foreign minister said he expected to have a draft
counterproposal ready within days following nuclear talks with the United States
this week, while Trump said he was considering limited military strikes.
Two US officials told Reuters that US military planning on Iran had
reached an advanced stage, with options including targeting individuals as part
of an attack and even pursuing leadership change in Tehran, if ordered by Trump.
Araghchi said after indirect discussions in Geneva this week with Witkoff and
Kushner that the sides had reached an understanding on main “guiding
principles,” but that did not mean a deal was imminent. The foreign minister,
in an interview on MS NOW, said he had a draft counterproposal that could be
ready in the next two or three days for top Iranian officials to review, with
more US-Iran talks possible in a week or so.
Iran Reportedly Agreed Secret Shoulder-fired Missile Deal
with Russia
Asharq Al Awsat/22 February/2026
Iran agreed a secret 500 million euro ($589 million) arms deal with Russia to
acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles, the Financial Times
reported on Sunday. The agreement, signed in Moscow in
December, commits Russia to deliver 500 man-portable "Verba" launch units and
2,500 "9M336" missiles over three years, the FT said, citing leaked Russian
documents seen by the FT and several people familiar with the deal.
Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Under the deal the
deliveries are scheduled in three tranches, running from 2027 through 2029, the
FT said.
The deal was negotiated between Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and
the Moscow representative of Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces
Logistics (MODAFL), the FT said. Tehran formally requested the systems last
July, according to a contract seen by the FT. In June last year, US forces
struck Iran's three main nuclear sites as the country joined Israel's military
campaign against Iran. President Donald Trump said Iran's key nuclear facilities
were destroyed in the attack. However, according to a preliminary US
intelligence assessment at the time, the US airstrikes did not destroy Iran's
nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months. Iranian officials
have repeatedly said Tehran had recovered from the damage incurred during the
war and that its capabilities are better than ever.
EU Says US Must Honor a Trade Deal after Court Blocks Trump
Tariffs
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
The European Union's executive arm requested “full clarity” from the United
States and asked its trade partner to fulfill its commitments after the US
Supreme Court struck down some of President Donald Trump’s most sweeping
tariffs. Trump has lashed out at the court decision and said Saturday that he
wants a global tariff of 15%, up from the 10% he announced a day earlier. The
European Commission said the current situation is not conducive to delivering
"fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial” trans-Atlantic trade and investment,
as agreed to by both sides and spelled out in the EU-US Joint Statement of
August 2025. American and EU officials sealed a trade deal last year that
imposes a 15% import tax on 70% of European goods exported to the United States.
The European Commission handles trade for the 27 EU member countries. A top EU
lawmaker said on Sunday he will propose to the European Parliament negotiating
team to put the ratifying process of the deal on pause. “Pure tariff chaos on
the part of the US administration,” Bernd Lange, the chair of Parliament’s
international trade committee, wrote on social media. “No one can make sense of
it anymore — only open questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other US
trading partners.”The value of EU-US trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7
trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day,
according to EU statistics agency Eurostat. “A deal is a deal,” the European
Commission said. “As the United States’ largest trading partner, the EU expects
the US to honor its commitments set out in the Joint Statement — just as the EU
stands by its commitments. EU products must continue to benefit from the most
competitive treatment, with no increases in tariffs beyond the clear and
all-inclusive ceiling previously agreed."Jamieson Greer, Trump’s top trade
negotiator, said in a CBS News interview Sunday morning that the US plans to
stand by its trade deals and expects its partners to do the same.
He said he talked to his European counterpart this weekend and hasn’t heard
anyone tell him the deal is off.“The deals were not premised on whether or not
the emergency tariff litigation would rise or fall,” Greer said. “I haven’t
heard anyone yet come to me and say the deal’s off. They want to see how this
plays out.”Europe’s biggest exports to the US are pharmaceuticals, cars,
aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits. Among the
biggest US exports to the bloc are professional and scientific services like
payment systems and cloud infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, medical
equipment, aerospace products and cars. “When applied unpredictably, tariffs are
inherently disruptive, undermining confidence and stability across global
markets and creating further uncertainty across international supply chains,”
The Associated Press quoted the commission as saying. As primarily a trading
bloc, the EU has a powerful tool at its disposal to retaliate — the bloc’s
Anti-Coercion Instrument. It includes a raft of measures for blocking or
restricting trade and investment from countries found to be putting undue
pressure on EU member nations or corporations. The measures could include
curtailing the export and import of goods and services, barring countries or
companies from EU public tenders, or limiting foreign direct investment. In its
most severe form, it would essentially close off access to the EU’s 450-million
customer market and inflict billions of dollars of losses on US companies and
the American economy.
'No thanks', Greenland PM
says of Trump offer to send US Navy hospital ship
LBCI/February 22/2026
Greenland's prime minister on Sunday flatly rejected a proposal by Donald Trump
to send a U.S. Navy hospital ship to the Arctic island coveted by the U.S.
leader."That will be 'no thanks' from us," Jens-Frederik Nielsen, who heads the
government of the autonomous Danish territory, wrote on his Facebook
page."President Trump's idea to send a U.S. hospital ship here to Greenland has
been duly noted. But we have a public health system where care is free for
citizens," he said. AFP
Hamas official says group in final stage of choosing new chief
Al Arabiya English/February 22/2026
A senior Hamas official told AFP on Sunday that the Palestinian group was in the
final phase of selecting a new leader, with two prominent figures competing for
the position. Hamas recently completed the formation
of a new Shura Council, a consultative body largely composed of religious
scholars, as well as a new political bureau, the official said.
Since the war in Gaza began following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on
Israel, Israeli forces have killed several of the movement’s leaders, including
two former chiefs. “The movement has completed its
internal elections in the three regions and has reached the final stage of
selecting the head of the political bureau,” the official said, speaking on
condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak publicly. He added that
the race for the group’s leadership is now between Khaled Meshaal and Khalil
al-Hayya. A second Hamas source confirmed the
development. Despite a US-brokered ceasefire that entered its second phase last
month, violence has continued in Gaza, with Israel and Hamas blaming each other
for violating the agreement. Members of the council are elected every four years
by representatives from Hamas’ three branches: the Gaza Strip, the occupied West
Bank and the movement’s external leadership. Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails
are also eligible to vote. The council subsequently elects the political bureau,
which in turn selects the head of the movement.
‘Renew internal legitimacy’
A third Hamas source said the new leader will serve for only “one year... a
transitional period.”Thousands of Hamas members voted to choose the council and
the political bureau, the source added, without specifying how the vote was
conducted. Hamas says political path for Gaza must
begin with end to Israeli ‘aggression’.“The primary
goal of the process was to renew internal legitimacy and fill leadership
vacancies,” the source added. The new leader will need to navigate between
international calls, led by the United States and Israel, for the group to
disarm, and resistance to that demand from its armed wing, which fought Israeli
forces in Gaza. Hamas, however, said it would surrender its weapons to a
Palestinian authority in Gaza under certain conditions. Both Meshaal and
al-Hayya have years of experience within the movement. Al-Hayya, 65, a Gaza
native and Hamas’ chief negotiator in ceasefire talks, has held senior roles
since at least 2006, according to the US-based NGO the Counter Extremism Project
(CEP).Meshaal, who led the political bureau from 2004 to 2017, has never lived
in Gaza. He was born in the West Bank in 1956. He joined Hamas in Kuwait and
later lived in Jordan, Syria and Qatar. The CEP says he oversaw Hamas’ evolution
into a political-military hybrid. He currently heads the movement’s diaspora
office. Last month, a Hamas source told AFP that al-Hayya enjoys backing from
the group’s armed wing, the Ezzedine Al-Qassem Brigades. After Israel killed
former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024, the group chose its
then-Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar as his successor. Israel accused Sinwar of
masterminding the October 7 attack. He too was killed by Israeli forces in the
southern Gaza city of Rafah, three months after Haniyeh’s assassination.Hamas
then opted for an interim five-member leadership committee based in Qatar,
postponing the appointment of a single leader until elections, given the risk of
the new chief being targeted by Israel. With AFP
Netanyahu Says India's Modi to Visit Israel Wednesday
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Israel on Wednesday, his
counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu announced, saying the trip will help forge a new
alliance to counter what he described as "radical" adversaries. "On Wednesday,
the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, will arrive here; he will deliver a
speech in the Knesset," Netanyahu said Sunday at the opening of a cabinet
meeting, referring to Israel's parliament. The premier
hailed growing ties between the two countries, according to AFP.
"The fabric of relations has grown tighter, and (Modi) is coming here so
that we can tighten it even more," he said, mentioning cooperation in the
economic, diplomatic and security spheres. Modi visited Israel as prime minister
in 2017, before Netanyahu made a reciprocal visit to India the following year.
Netanyahu said the Israel-India axis will be part of a wider regional alliance
to counter common "radical" adversaries. "In the vision I see before me, we will
create an entire system, essentially a 'hexagon' of alliances around or within
the Middle East," the Israeli leader said. Arch-foes Israel and Iran also faced
each other in a first direct confrontation last June in a 12-day war in which
the Israeli and US militaries targeted Tehran's nuclear facilities and ballistic
missile arsenal. "All of these nations share a different perception, and our
cooperation can yield great results and, of course, ensure our resilience and
our future," Netanyahu said of the emerging alliance.
US Ambassador Causes Uproar by Claiming Israel has a Right to Much of the Middle
East
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
Arab and Muslim nations on Saturday sharply condemned comments by the US
ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who said Israel has a right to much of the
Middle East. Huckabee made the comments in an
interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson that aired Friday.
Carlson said that according to the Bible, the descendants of Abraham would
receive land that today would include essentially the entire Middle East, and
asked Huckabee if Israel had a right to that land, The AP news reported.
Huckabee responded: “It would be fine if they took it all." Huckabee
added, however, that Israel was not looking to expand its territory and has a
right to security in the land it legitimately holds. His comments sparked
immediate backlash from neighboring Egypt and Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Oman, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the League of Arab States.
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry described Huckabee's comments as “extremist
rhetoric” and “unacceptable,” and called for the State Department to clarify its
position on them. Egypt's foreign ministry called his comments a “blatant
violation” of international law, adding that “Israel has no sovereignty over the
occupied Palestinian territory or other Arab lands.”“Statements of this nature —
extremist and lacking any sound basis — serve only to inflame sentiments and
stir religious and national emotions,” the League of Arab States said. Since its
establishment in 1948, Israel has not had fully recognized borders. Its
frontiers with Arab neighbors have shifted as a result of wars, annexations,
ceasefires and peace agreements. During the six-day 1967 Mideast war, Israel
captured the West Bank and east Jerusalem from Jordan, Gaza and the Sinai
Peninsula from Egypt and the Golan Heights from Syria. Israel withdrew from the
Sinai Peninsula as part of a peace deal with Egypt following the 1973 Mideast
war. It also unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2005. Israel has attempted to
deepen control of the occupied West Bank in recent months. It has greatly
expanded construction in Jewish settlements, legalized outposts and made
significant bureaucratic changes to its policies in the territory. US President
Donald Trump has said he will not allow Israel to annex the West Bank and has
offered strong assurances that he’d block any move to do so. Palestinians have
for decades called for an independent state in the West Bank and Gaza with east
Jerusalem its capital, a claim backed by much of the international community.
Huckabee, an evangelical Christian and strong supporter of Israel and the West
Bank settlement movement, has long opposed the idea of a two-state solution for
Israel and the Palestinian people. In an interview last year, he said he does
not believe in referring to the Arab descendants of people who had lived in
British-controlled Palestine as “Palestinians.”In the latest interview, Carlson
pressed Huckabee about his interpretation of Bible verses from the book of
Genesis, where he said God promised Abraham and his descendants land from the
Nile to the Euphrates.
“That would be the Levant, so that would be Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon. It
would also be big parts of Saudi Arabia and Iraq," Carlson said. Huckabee
replied: “Not sure we'd go that far. I mean, it would be a big piece of land."
Israel has encroached on more land since the start of its war with Hamas in
Gaza, which was sparked by the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7,
2023. Under the current ceasefire, Israel withdrew its troops to a buffer zone
but still controls more than half the territory. Israeli forces are supposed to
withdraw further, though the ceasefire deal doesn’t give a timeline. After
Syrian President Bashar Assad was ousted at the end of 2024, Israel's military
seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syria created as part of a 1974
ceasefire between the countries. Israel said the move was temporary and meant to
secure its border. And Israel still occupies five hilltop posts on Lebanese
territory following its brief war with Hezbollah in 2024.
Palestinian Foreign Ministry Condemns US Ambassador to
Israel’s Statements
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates condemned statements
by the US ambassador to Israel, in which he claimed that Israel has the right to
exercise control over the entire Middle East. The ministry emphasized that these
provocative statements constitute a blatant call for aggression against the
sovereignty of states. It added that they support the continuation of the
occupation’s war of genocide and displacement, as well as the implementation of
its annexation and expansionist plans against the Palestinian people, SPA
reported. The Palestinian foreign ministry pointed out that the statements
contradict religious and historical facts and international law, SPA reported.
It called on the US administration to take a clear stance regarding its
ambassador to Israel’s remarks, which are completely at odds with the US
president’s position rejecting the annexation of the West Bank.
Syrian President Confident in Implementation of SDF
Agreement
Damascus: Souad Jarous/Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is confident in both the mechanism and the pace
of implementation of the agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
sources in the capital told Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday. The sources, who met
al-Sharaa days earlier, said the president believes he has “a thousand solutions
to every problem” related to unifying Syria “as land and people,” despite what
they described as attempts by a hardline faction within the SDF to derail the
process. The government appears determined to move forward. Damascus has begun
implementing what it calls an “integration” of state institutions with the
Kurdish-led group’s administrative and military structures. Political writer
Ibrahim al-Jabin said al-Sharaa is also closely managing developments in Hasakah
province through understandings with the international coalition and the US
military, which is vacating bases and transferring them to Syria’s Ministry of
Defense. Al-Jabin, who attended a recent meeting
between the president and Arab writers participating in the Damascus
International Book Fair, said al-Sharaa projected assurance about the
agreement’s trajectory. He pointed to a “hardline current” within the SDF
seeking to push matters toward collapse, describing recent remarks by Ilham
Ahmed as efforts to provoke Damascus while containing dissatisfaction among
supporters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), who are critical of what they
see as concessions by the SDF. At the same time,
al-Jabin said a strong current within the SDF is leaning toward pragmatism and
compromise, shifting from a militia mindset to a governing role. He cited Decree
No. 13, which grants Syrian Kurds long-demanded rights, including citizenship
for those previously denied it and recognition of Kurdish-language instruction
in areas with significant Kurdish populations. These measures, he added, are
proceeding in parallel with US support for Damascus’ approach. On Friday, Ilham
Ahmed, co-chair of the Autonomous Administration’s Department of Foreign
Relations, told the Kurdish channel Ronahi that many provisions of the Jan. 29
agreement had yet to be implemented, warning of “the risk of a new war in
Syria.”She accused the government of resisting meaningful Kurdish participation
in state institutions and said hate speech from some sectors was obstructing
progress. Kurdish political researcher Mahdi Daoud described Ahmed’s remarks as
“provocative,” arguing that the Democratic Union Party (PYD) benefits from
heightened tensions and feels stronger in times of instability. Daoud said it
was too early to fully assess the integration mechanism, but noted that a plane
landed at Qamishli airport on Saturday without incident, a sign of relative
calm. In a related development, Syria’s General Authority of Civil Aviation
formally assumed control of Qamishli airport under the January 29 agreement.
Authorities also released 51 detainees from Alaya prison, still run by the SDF,
in coordination with Hasakah Governor Noureddine Ahmad and local tribal leaders,
alongside a presidential amnesty issued by al-Sharaa.
IS Urges Members to Fight
Syria's New Government
This is Beirut/February 22/2026
The Islamic State group on Saturday urged its fighters to confront Syria's new
authorities, in its spokesperson's first audio message in two years.
In a recording posted online, Abu Huzaifa al-Ansari said IS members in
Syria must fight "the new Syrian regime, with its secular government and
national army" and "make that their priority".The last time al-Ansari posted an
audio message was in January 2024, when he urged IS supporters to kill Jews
around the world in revenge for Israeli attacks in Gaza.
Since ousting longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Syria's
new authorities, who had links to the Al-Qaeda jihadist group, have sought to
break from their radical past and present a moderate image.Last year, Syria
joined the US-led coalition against IS and has been coordinating attacks against
the group's remnants in the country.IS swept across Syria and Iraq in 2014,
committing massacres and forcing women and girls into sexual slavery.Backed by
US-led forces, Iraq proclaimed the defeat of IS in 2017, followed two years
later by its defeat to Kurdish-led forces in Syria.
Last month, Syrian troops advanced against Kurdish forces, sparking questions
over the fate of the IS prisoners held in Kurdish-run facilities.Amid lingering
doubts about security, Washington transferred more than 5,700 IS detainees from
Syria to Iraqi prisons. A camp that once held
relatives of IS fighters has now been emptied -- residents either left or were
moved to a new location by the Syrian authorities. AFP
Syria Closes ISIS-linked
al-Hol Camp after Emptying it
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
Syrian authorities have closed al-Hol camp, which long housed relatives of
suspected ISIS militants, after emptying the formerly Kurdish-controlled
facility, a camp official told AFP on Sunday. "All Syrian and non-Syrian
families were relocated," Fadi al-Qassem, the official appointed by the
government to manage al-Hol's affairs told AFP.
Al-Hol, located in a desert region of Hasakeh province, had been Syria's largest
camp housing relatives of suspected ISIS fighters. Last month, the government
took over the camp from its Kurdish administrators, who had long run it, as
Kurdish forces ceded territory and Damascus extended its control across swathes
of Syria's northeast. Since then, thousands of family
members of foreign militants have left for unknown destinations. The facility
had housed some 24,000 people, mostly Syrians but also Iraqis and more than
6,000 other foreigners of around 40 nationalities.
Qassem said security forces were searching the tents for any remaining families.
Earlier this week, authorities had started evacuating the remaining
residents, taking them to a camp in Akhtarin, in the north of Aleppo province.
Some of the families were taken elsewhere, Qassem said, without specifying the
location. "The camp's residents are children and women who need support for
their reintegration," he added. A source in a humanitarian organization that was
active in the camp told AFP: "We evacuated all our teams working inside the
camp, dismantled all our equipment and prefabricated rooms and moved them out of
the camp". Last week, the US military said it had completed the transfer of
thousands of ISIS suspects, including many Syrians but also Westerners, to Iraq,
after they were held in Kurdish-run prisons in northeast Syria for years.
Mexican Army Kills Leader of Jalisco New Generation Cartel
Asharq Al Awsat/February 22/2026
The Mexican army killed the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio
Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” in an operation Sunday, a federal
official said. The official, who requested anonymity
because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said it happened during a
military operation in the western state of Jalisco. It
followed several hours of roadblocks with burning vehicles in Jalisco and other
states, The Associated Press reported. Such tactics are commonly used by the
cartels to block military operations. Videos circulating social media showed
plumes of smoke billowing over the city of Puerto Vallarta, a major city in
Jalisco, and sprinting through the airport of the state's capital in panic. The
US State Department had offered a reward of up to $15 million for information
leading to the arrest of El Mencho. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel is one of
the most powerful and fasted growing criminal organizations in Mexico.
In February, the Trump administration designated the cartel as a foreign
terrorist organization. It has been one of the most aggressive cartels in its
attacks on the military—including helicopters—and a pioneer in launching
explosives from drones and installing mines. In 2020, it carried out a
spectacular assassination attempt with grenades and high-powered rifles in the
heart of Mexico City against the then head of the capital’s police force and now
head of federal security. The DEA considers this cartel to be as powerful as the
Sinaloa cartel, one of Mexico's most infamous criminal groups, with a presence
in all 50 US states where it distributes tons of drugs. It is one of the main
suppliers of cocaine to the US market and, like the Sinaloa cartel, earns
billions from the production of fentanyl and methamphetamines.
Russian missile barrage hits energy, railways across
Ukraine
AFP/22 February ,2026
Russia fired scores of missiles and drones at targets across Ukraine on Sunday,
crashing into energy and rail infrastructure and residential buildings, just two
days before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion. AFP journalists in Kyiv
heard a series of blasts starting at around 4:00 am (0200 GMT), shortly after an
air raid alert was issued, with the air force later widening the alert
nationwide citing the threat of missiles. “Moscow continues to invest in strikes
more than in diplomacy,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on
the attack on social media, saying that Russia launched about 50 missiles and
300 drones overnight. “The main target of the attack was the energy sector.
Ordinary residential buildings were also damaged, and there is damage to the
railway.”One man was killed and a dozen more people were wounded, among them
four children, in and around Kyiv, Ukraine’s national police said. AFP saw
rescuers sifting through debris of a largely destroyed two-storey house in
Sofiivska Borshchagivka in the Kyiv region. Temperatures had plunged to nearly
-10C when the capital was struck, with emergency services deployed across the
city. The Ukrainian capital, regularly targeted by Russian missile and drone
attacks since the start of the invasion on February 24, 2022, has faced waves of
overnight strikes in recent weeks as Moscow has intensified its winter assaults.
The Russian army said it had carried out a mass strike targeting facilities used
by Ukraine’s military, saying all targets were hit, in a standard comment for
such attacks. Authorities in Russia’s western Belgorod region said one man died
after a Ukrainian drone strike.
‘Act of terrorism’
The bombardment, which included ballistic and cruise missiles, prompted
heightened vigilance across Ukraine, all the way to the western border.
Ukraine’s energy ministry said consumers in six eastern and southeastern region
were without power after the strikes.
Poland’s Operational Command said early Sunday it was scrambling jets after
detecting “long range aviation of the Russian Federation conducting strikes on
the territory of Ukraine.”In a separate attack, an explosion rocked a store in
central Lviv, a western city near the Polish border far from the front line that
is largely spared the worst of the conflict.
Explosions ripped through a central shopping street at around midnight, killing
a policewoman and wounding 25 people after officers responded to a reported
break in. Hours later, law enforcement said it had
detained a Ukrainian woman suspected in carrying out the bomb attack, without
providing any further details and saying that an investigation was ongoing.
“This is clearly an act of terrorism,” mayor Andriy Sadovyi said of the
nighttime assault.
Ukraine ‘not losing’
Ukraine will mark four years since Russia’s assault on February 24, 2022, a war
that has shattered towns, uprooted millions and killed large numbers on both
sides. Moscow occupies close to a fifth of Ukrainian
territory and continues to grind forward, especially in the eastern Donbas
region, despite heavy losses and repeated Ukrainian strikes on logistics.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told AFP on Friday that Ukraine was
“definitely not losing” the war and that victory remained the goal. He said
Ukrainian forces had clawed back about 300 square kilometers (116 square miles)
of territory in recent counter attacks, gains AFP could not immediately verify.
If confirmed, they would be Kyiv’s most significant advances since 2023. The
United States is pushing both sides to end the war, brokering several rounds of
talks in recent weeks without a clear breakthrough.
The
Latest
LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February
22-23/2026
Iran: When Ayatollahs Lampoon the Clergy
Amir Taheri/Gatestone Institute/February 22, 2026
"Look at our times a handful of imposter clerics
Having no notion of reason and science
Having no notion of what man is about
Desperate like donkeys in search of fodder
All they care about is eating and fornicating
Have cast aside notions of shame and honor
They seek nothing but loot and plunder
Alien they are to rules of faith."
— Sanai, 11th century Persian poet, from a samizdat distributed in the "holy"
city of Qom, the bastion of Iranian clergy, February 20, 2026, the 40th day of
the deaths of thousands of protesters across Iran.
Surprisingly, despite unprecedented security deployment, no attempt was made to
stop the tract. It quotes an unnamed cleric addressing fellow clerics: "They
gave you money to build a school but you built a palace for yourself!" —
Editorial in daily Jumhuri Islami, founded in 1979 and owned by "Supreme Guide"
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Today, however, every village mullah insists on having a luxury tomb, if not a
full-blown shrine with ceramic tiles and mirror work. Before the 1979
revolution, the clergy was largely independent of state funds. In 1977, total
government "gifts" to a dozen grand ayatollahs in Qom, Tehran and Mashhad were
estimated at $3 million.
Today, voluntary donations have evaporated, leaving the clergy dependent on a
secular authority that uses a clerical vocabulary. Thus the current wave of
attacks on the clergy could come from the "deep state" including the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps that may be thinking of a post-Khamenei arrangement in
which the turbans move stage left to exit.
Last Tuesday, as Iranians organized mourning ceremonies on the 40th day of the
deaths of thousands of protesters across the nation, a samizdat with a poem
lampooning the clergy was distributed in the "holy" city of Qom, the bastion of
Iranian clergy. Surprisingly, despite unprecedented security deployment, no
attempt was made to stop the tract. Last Tuesday, as Iranians organized mourning
ceremonies on the 40th day of the deaths of thousands of protesters across the
nation, a samizdat was distributed in the "holy" city of Qom, the bastion of
Iranian clergy.
The single-page tract included parts of a poem by Sanai, an 11th century Persian
poet lampooning the clergy.
Part of it read:
Look at our times a handful of imposter clerics
Having no notion of reason and science
Having no notion of what man is about
Desperate like donkeys in search of fodder
All they care about is eating and fornicating
Have cast aside notions of shame and honor
They seek nothing but loot and plunder
Alien they are to rules of faith.
Surprisingly, despite unprecedented security deployment, no attempt was made to
stop the tract. Did the authorities want to pass a message to the clergy who
have remained silent throughout the most turbulent weeks of the beleaguered
republic?
The expectation was that the clergy would do what they have done for half a
century: acting as echo chamber for the official narrative of the tragic events.
A sign that the attack on clergy may have had a nod and a wink from "the
authorities" came the same day in the official daily Jumhuri Islami ("Islamic
Republic") founded in 1979 and owned by "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In an editorial, the paper accused the clergy of having lost contact with "real
community" and being addicted to mammon's offers.
"Instead of living in small cells of the howzah (theological school) they live
in luxurious abodes and enjoy the best possibilities that worldly life can
offer," the editorial claimed.
The editorial revealed that the luxury villas and penthouses where some clergy
live are theoretically owned by "foundations", "charities" and "research
centers" they head, funded by the state. It quotes an unnamed cleric addressing
fellow clerics: "They gave you money to build a school but you built a palace
for yourself!"
The editorial laments "the time when clerical life was based on piety,
self-abnegation, frugality and modesty." "In those days," it asserts, "the
highest-ranking clerics shunned titles such as ayatollahs and signed themselves
as al-ahqar [an Arabic term that means the humblest]."
Such grand clerics as Abdul-Karim Haeri of Maybod arguably the highest "maraja
al taqlid" (source of imitation) in his time, even insisted that their modest
tombstone bear no honorific title. Today, however, every village mullah insists
on having a luxury tomb, if not a full-blown shrine with ceramic tiles and
mirror work.
The editorial claims that the clergy have lost the contact they had with the
mass of believers because they now depend on government funding, gifts and
positions with salaries and perks.
Thus, instead of taking an interest in matters that touch the foundations of
society, they focus on "appearances" such as why the government allows some
women to play fast and loose with "hijab" or why banks play tricks to circumvent
the ban on charging interest.
The article in Ayatollah Khamenei's newspaper concludes by quoting Imam Muhammad
Ghazzali the great 12th-century Persian theologian who also lampooned the clergy
of his time for deviating from the True Path.
A day after the surprise editorial, it was the turn of IRNA the official news
agency, to publish a lengthy interview with Ayatollah Majid Ansari an IRGC
senior cleric acting as presidential advisor.
In it he accuses the clergy of having "replaced religion with personal opinions"
thus alienating public opinion. "We need to cease imposing our tastes on
society, especially on younger people," he says. "People, especially the youth,
want to live a normal life and will resist against any barrier we may erect."
Hassan Khalkhali a noted expert on "seminary affairs" claims that "there has
emerged in Iran a kind of disaffection between the clergy and the mass of the
people for the first time in five centuries, that is to say, since Iran adopted
Shiism." He reports that some clerics now feel "unsafe appearing in traditional
cloth and turban" and wear jeans and baseball caps in public.
Son of Grand Ayatollah Khalkhali also claims that some clerics are leaving the
country mostly to start a new life in Iraq. Last year alone, over 3,000
relocated to Najaf and Karbala. What is one to make of what looks like an
officially sanctioned, if not actually organized, criticism of the clergy? Why
would a system built around the clergy sanction such ardent criticism of its
core? No straight answer is possible because Iran today has several layers of
clergy.
The most reliable figures put the number of clergy at around 300,000, including
some 70,000 students of theology, of whom a third come from 30 foreign
countries. Clerics in governmental or semi-official positions number around
50,000.
A further 20,000 clerics are on state payroll through "foundations" "charities"
and "research centers" they head. Some 100,000 receive state donations through
the National Association of Mosques that administers the estimated 80,000
mosques and 7,000 mausoleums of "holy" men and women. That leaves around 50,000
to 60,000 clerics who are theoretically self-financing. But even then Khalkhali
reports that many of them own businesses managed by their sons or sons-in-law,
often benefiting from juicy government contract and "heavy envelope" gifts on
feast days. One grand ayatollah owns no fewer than 157 companies engaged in
import-export, hospitality, mining and foreign travel services.
Before the 1979 revolution, the clergy was largely independent of state funds.
In 1977, total government "gifts" to a dozen grand ayatollahs in Qom, Tehran and
Mashhad were estimated at $3 million. The clergy depended on voluntary donations
by hundreds of thousands of believers in Iran and abroad who regarded it as an
interface if not a counterweight to profane authorities. That created a balance
in which the clergy and the government cooperated within limits but remained
aware of potential zones of discord.
Ayatollah Khomeini sought a Goldilocks solution by trying to unite the turban
and the military cap. Today, voluntary donations have evaporated, leaving the
clergy dependent on a secular authority that uses a clerical vocabulary. Last
month's tragic events provided an occasion for the clergy to reassert its
alterity by remaining silent, neither endorsing the protests nor condemning them
as the powers-that-be wished. Thus the current wave of attacks on the clergy
could come from the "deep state" including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
that may be thinking of a post-Khamenei arrangement in which the turbans move
stage left to exit.
**Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from
1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications,
published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987.
He graciously serves as Chairman of Gatestone Europe.
Gatestone Institute would like to thank the author for his kind permission to
reprint this article in slightly different form from Asharq Al-Awsat.
Sorry, something went wrong while checking your text. Restarting your browser
might solve this. (0)
© 2026 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Erdogan's Sunni Noose: Turkey's Bid to Encircle Israel
Pierre Rehov/Gatestone Institute/February 22, 2026
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched an ambitious diplomatic
offensive aimed at unifying the Sunni world under Ankara's leadership. The
objective is not merely reconciliation with former rivals. It is the
construction of a Sunni diplomatic and strategic "wall," or "noose," around
Israel, replacing the Iranian "Shi'ite crescent" with a new configuration of
Sunni power.
The Turkish-Saudi reconciliation is particularly significant. Following years of
tension after the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Ankara
and Riyadh have now moved decisively toward strategic cooperation.
Turkish and Saudi officials increasingly frame Israel as a destabilizing actor
in these theaters. The emerging partnership is not merely economic; it reflects
coordinated positioning against perceived external threats, with Israel
explicitly cited.
Turkey and Egypt have now signed a $350 million military framework agreement
covering joint weapons production, intelligence sharing, and military exercises.
Turkish air defense systems and munitions are slated for delivery, and bilateral
trade is projected to reach $15 billion.
As the guardian of the Suez Canal and a dominant actor in North Africa, Egypt
provides logistical leverage capable of influencing maritime routes critical to
Israel's economy.
On February 9, 2026, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan,
Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint
communiqué condemning what they called "Israeli expansionist policies in
occupied territories" and calling for Islamic unity.
Some analysts describe an emerging "Sunni axis," or noose, influenced by Muslim
Brotherhood ideology; backed by Turkish military power, financed by Qatar and
Saudi Arabia, and designed, by expanding into Gaza, to encircle and finish off
Israel.
The UAE, under the impressive leadership of Sheikh Mohamed ben Zayed al Nahyan,
pursues a technocratic, anti-political Islam agenda that diverges sharply from
Erdogan's ideological sympathies.... Still, the coalition's ultimate aim, apart
from the UAE, unmistakably seems to be "containing" Israel.
Recently, Saudi media have featured openly anti-Israel and antisemitic headlines
not seen in years. The kingdom appears to be totally aligning itself with
anti-Israel countries such as Qatar and Turkey, while "tensions with the UAE
explode."
Egypt, Israel's chilly peace partner since 1979, has reportedly expanded
military infrastructure in the Sinai Peninsula in ways that should, under the
supposed peace treaty, raise serious questions.
Turkish and Egyptian intelligence services are reportedly coordinating efforts
to counter rival influences and restrict Israel's strategic access.
Israeli analysts increasingly describe it as the replacement of Iran's Shiite
axis with a Sunni bloc influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The coalition presents itself as promoting regional peace. Yet "peace" may
translate into the vaporization of Israel, especially should a future Israeli
government prove more pliable.
Erdogan's participation in "stabilization" efforts would significantly expand
Turkish influence within the emerging Sunni crescent. Ankara's well-documented
support for Muslim Brotherhood networks — which are Hamas's patrons,
ideologically and financially – should raise obvious concerns.
Netanyahu's insistence that Israel determine which international actors, if any,
operate in Gaza, serves multiple strategic purposes. It prevents Turkish
entrenchment in Gaza, maintains Israeli control over post-war arrangements, and
signals to Washington that Israel views Turkish expansionism as a long-term
threat transcending personal or political relationships.
Whatever the obstacles, Erdogan's direction seems clear: a militarily and
economically anchored Sunni alignment to constrict Israel's strategic space.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched an ambitious diplomatic
offensive aimed at unifying the Sunni world under Ankara's leadership. The
objective is not merely reconciliation with former rivals. It is the
construction of a Sunni diplomatic and strategic "wall," or "noose," around
Israel.
While much of the world's attention remains fixed on Iran and its Shi'ite axis,
another geopolitical realignment is taking shape — more quietly, more
pragmatically, and potentially just as consequential for the US, Israel and the
Middle East.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched an ambitious diplomatic
offensive aimed at unifying the Sunni world under Ankara's leadership. The
objective is not merely reconciliation with former rivals. It is the
construction of a Sunni diplomatic and strategic "wall," or "noose," around
Israel, replacing the Iranian "Shi'ite crescent" with a new configuration of
Sunni power.
In early February 2026, Erdogan embarked on a Middle East tour that signaled a
turning point. On February 3, he visited Saudi Arabia. On February 4, Egypt. On
February 7, Jordan's King Abdullah II was received in Istanbul. These meetings
were not symbolic. They marked the culmination of a "normalization" process that
has been unfolding since 2022, as Turkey repaired relations that were damaged by
its earlier ideological support for the Muslim Brotherhood and confrontations
with Gulf monarchies.
The Turkish-Saudi reconciliation is particularly significant. Following years of
tension after the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Ankara
and Riyadh have now moved decisively toward strategic cooperation. Discussions
with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman produced major agreements, including
a $2 billion Saudi investment in renewable energy projects in Turkey, targeting
5,000 megawatts of solar capacity. Defense cooperation was expanded to include
technology transfers for Turkish drones and air defense systems. Bilateral trade
is expected to reach $50 billion.
Erdogan has emphasized "growing strategic trust" in confronting regional
instability — from Syria to Gaza. Turkish and Saudi officials increasingly frame
Israel as a destabilizing actor in these theaters. The emerging partnership is
not merely economic; it reflects coordinated positioning against perceived
external threats, with Israel explicitly cited.
Egypt represents an even more dramatic shift. After a decade of hostility —
triggered by Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood following the 2013
ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi — Erdogan's visit to Cairo marked the
end of a long freeze. Turkey and Egypt have now signed a $350 million military
framework agreement covering joint weapons production, intelligence sharing, and
military exercises. Turkish air defense systems and munitions are slated for
delivery, and bilateral trade is projected to reach $15 billion.
Strategically, Egypt's participation transforms the coalition's scope. As the
guardian of the Suez Canal and a dominant actor in North Africa, Egypt provides
logistical leverage capable of influencing maritime routes critical to Israel's
economy. Discussions between Erdogan and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
reportedly included Gaza, Syria, and Africa—regions where both countries share
concerns over the influence of Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
Jordan, long a security partner of Israel despite persistent political hostility
at home, has also been drawn into closer alignment with Turkey. Joint statements
have emphasized peace in Syria and Gaza and highlighted "common concerns" about
regional stability. A future Erdogan visit to Amman is under discussion,
underscoring Jordan's integration into Ankara's growing network.
On February 9, 2026, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan,
Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint
communiqué condemning what they called "Israeli expansionist policies in
occupied territories" and calling for Islamic unity. Israeli media outlets such
as Ynet interpreted the statement as evidence of a "coalition of interests
against Israel," with Turkey playing the unifying role.
Some analysts describe an emerging "Sunni axis," or noose, influenced by Muslim
Brotherhood ideology; backed by Turkish military power, financed by Qatar and
Saudi Arabia, and designed, by expanding into Gaza, to encircle and finish off
Israel. The isolated Turkish-Qatari alignment of 2017–2021 appears to have
evolved into a broader strategy of economic and diplomatic influence, channeling
of neo-Ottoman ambitions.
A few structural limits do remain. Saudi Arabia acts as the guardian of Sunni
Islam's holiest sites and is unlikely to surrender religious leadership to
Ankara. Egypt retains unmatched demographic and military weight in the Arab
world.
The UAE, under the impressive leadership of Sheikh Mohamed ben Zayed al Nahyan,
pursues a technocratic, anti-political Islam agenda that diverges sharply from
Erdogan's ideological sympathies. Turkey's continued affinity for the Muslim
Brotherhood remains a source of friction. Coordination may be pragmatic, but
ideological fusion is far from complete. Still, the coalition's ultimate aim,
apart from the UAE, unmistakably seems to be "containing" Israel.
Turkey-Israel relations oscillate between harsh rhetoric and pragmatic
cooperation. Erdogan has publicly compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu to Hitler and accused Israel of Nazi-like policies. Economic ties,
however, persist, and Eastern Mediterranean energy interests have occasionally
aligned. Erdogan instrumentalizes the Palestinian cause to bolster his Islamic
leadership credentials, even as Ankara avoids direct military confrontation with
Israel.
The broader coalition presents more complex dynamics. Saudi Arabia had been in
advanced discussions with Washington regarding conditional normalization with
Israel. Those talks appear to have stalled or, most probably, collapsed.
Recently, Saudi media have featured openly anti-Israel and antisemitic headlines
not seen in years. The kingdom appears to be totally aligning itself with
anti-Israel countries such as Qatar and Turkey, while "tensions with the UAE
explode."
Egypt, Israel's chilly peace partner since 1979, has reportedly expanded
military infrastructure in the Sinai Peninsula in ways that should, under the
supposed peace treaty, raise serious questions. Jordan continues close
coordination with Israel, even as domestic political hostility remains intense.
Would these states risk overt military alignment against Israel? Perhaps not
this minute, but Erdogan's strategy does not require immediate war. It requires
gradual encirclement. Nowhere is this more evident than in Africa, especially
along the Red Sea coast. From Libya to Sudan to Somalia, Turkish and Egyptian
intelligence services are reportedly coordinating efforts to counter rival
influences and restrict Israel's strategic access.
In Libya, once divided between Turkish-backed Tripoli and Egyptian-supported
Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Ankara and Cairo are now aligning to stabilize the
country and limit UAE-supported militias perceived as close to Israel. In Sudan,
near Egypt's southwestern border, the Sudanese civil war continues. Turkey
provides logistical and intelligence support, aligning with Saudi Arabia to
potentially threaten Israeli access to the Red Sea.
In Somalia, Egypt has increased its military presence to approximately 10,000
troops after Israel's December 2025 recognition of Somaliland. Turkey maintains
its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, training Somali forces and
developing military infrastructure. A Saudi-Somali defense agreement strengthens
this axis, positioning it near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a chokepoint vital to
global trade and Israeli shipping. The stated objective is securing the Red Sea
against "foreign military presence." The unstated implication is the containment
of Israel.
This evolving configuration represents a transformation of what was once
considered the "moderate Sunni camp" — historically aligned with the United
States and tolerant, if not friendly, toward Israel — into a broader Islamic
coalition capable of exerting diplomatic, economic and military pressure.
Israeli analysts increasingly describe it as the replacement of Iran's Shiite
axis with a Sunni bloc influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The ultimate goal appears twofold: diplomatic isolation through forums such as
the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, where Turkey advocates economic
sanctions, and economic leverage via control of energy routes and maritime
corridors. The coalition presents itself as promoting regional peace. Yet
"peace" may translate into the vaporization of Israel, especially should a
future Israeli government prove more pliable.
Against this backdrop, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a
firm stand. On January 19, 2026, addressing the Knesset, he declared
unequivocally that there would be "no Turkish or Qatari soldiers in the Gaza
Strip." His veto came days after the White House announced the creation of a
U.S.-supervised "Board of Peace" to oversee Gaza reconstruction, reportedly
including Turkish and Qatari representatives such as Foreign Minister Hakan
Fidan.
Netanyahu did not hesitate to confront President Donald Trump publicly on the
issue. He instructed Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar to convey Israel's objections
directly to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The disagreement underscored a red
line: Israel would determine which international actors, if any, operate in
Gaza.
The refusal is consistent with earlier Israeli objections to Turkish military
involvement in post-war Gaza planning. Erdogan's participation in
"stabilization" efforts would significantly expand Turkish influence within the
emerging Sunni crescent. Ankara's well-documented support for Muslim Brotherhood
networks — which are Hamas's patrons, ideologically and financially – should
raise obvious concerns. Netanyahu's insistence that Israel determine which
international actors, if any, operate in Gaza, serves multiple strategic
purposes. It prevents Turkish entrenchment in Gaza, maintains Israeli control
over post-war arrangements, and signals to Washington that Israel views Turkish
expansionism as a long-term threat transcending personal or political
relationships.
Meanwhile, the UAE's stance for normalization with Israel may clash with
Turkey's drive for dominance. Egypt, having briefly fallen to Muslim Brotherhood
rule after the 2011 overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak, remains deeply wary of
a Brotherhood resurgence. Riyadh's ambitions for Sunni leadership compete with
Ankara's neo-Ottoman vision.
Whatever the obstacles, Erdogan's direction seems clear: a militarily and
economically anchored Sunni alignment to constrict Israel's strategic space.
While Iran's crescent may be weakening under sanctions and internal strain,
another structure is rising in its place. The new structure is not overtly
militant. It does not advertise itself as an alliance against Israel. But
through energy pacts, defense agreements, intelligence coordination, and
multilateral communiqués, it seems clearly to want to reconfigure the regional
balance of the Middle East.
The coming years will determine whether this Sunni wall strengthens into a
unified front or weakens under competing ambitions. For Israel, complacency is
not an option. The encirclement may no longer be Shiite, but Sunni — and
diplomatic, at first, rather than immediately military. In geopolitics, the form
of pressure matters less than its cumulative effect.
**Pierre Rehov, who holds a law degree from Paris-Assas, is a French reporter,
novelist and documentary filmmaker. He is the author of six novels, including
"Beyond Red Lines", "The Third Testament" and "Red Eden", translated from
French. His latest essay on the aftermath of the October 7 massacre " 7 octobre
- La riposte " became a bestseller in France. As a filmmaker, he has produced
and directed 17 documentaries, many photographed at high risk in Middle Eastern
war zones, and focusing on terrorism, media bias, and the persecution of
Christians. His latest documentary, "Pogrom(s)" highlights the context of
ancient Jew hatred within Muslim civilization as the main force behind the
October 7 massacre.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22292/erdogan-sunni-noose-encircle-israel
© 2026 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute.
Between
delay and indecisiveness: Iran buys time as Trump faces the critical moment
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya English/February 22/2026
The hallmarks of ambiguity and hesitation have become costly for President
Donald Trump, as he appears suspended between diplomatic and military options,
dancing to the skillful timing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who
excels at buying time and playing on the strings of timing. Trump has fallen
into a quagmire of indecision, yet he cannot endure the accumulating political
and military pressures mounting on him to finally decide. There is no escape for
Donald Trump but to finally make up his mind and take a decision by the end of
this week. That’s the clear picture now.
So far, the game of time has helped Iran secure the breathing room it needs, but
it has placed Trump in an extremely difficult position, particularly as his team
has grown wary of his hesitation and the consequences of using his personal mood
as a mechanism for deciding between peace and war. Trump started losing faith
from his own team and that could impact the elections plans. Both the political
and military pressures on Donald Trump will push him toward a decision, away
from continuing to be ensnared in Iran’s timing dance.
Iran has benefited the most from this time-buying game and will continue to as
long as the American president yields to its rhythm. Leaders in Tehran are
betting on Trump’s oscillation between a deep desire for a deal and the
potential necessity of a military strike against Iran.
Yet Tehran risks this gamble, for Donald Trump is also adept at turning on a
dime, without warning, overturning the scales and flipping the table on whoever
sits across from him.
Israel, for its part, appears freed from the constraints of timing and
operational modalities regarding its military intentions, especially concerning
Iran’s proxies, beginning with Hezbollah in Lebanon and extending to the missile
threat, which Israel views as a danger to its national security.
The American president has delegated the matter of proxies and missiles to
Israel which has liberated the Israeli leadership from the burden of timing
constraints, granting them freedom to act. This does not mean Israel is unafraid
of what seems to be Trump’s ongoing hesitation in decision-making, but it does
mean that Israel is partially freed—under American approval—from the patterns of
hesitation inherent in Trumpian decision-making.
Israel also fully understands Iran’s long-practiced tactic of buying time, a
tactic that has succeeded for Tehran so far. Yet Iran’s insistence on embroiling
the American president in a game of time, relying on the tactic of
“drip-feeding” concessions, will ultimately backfire strategically, upending the
balance of calculations. Iranian tactical and strategic errors stem from the
methodology of drip-feeding concessions rather than leveraging the momentum of
initiative. They also originate from the belief that incentives in oil and
energy investment are sufficient to compel Trump to concede. Additionally, the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s military maneuvers were also a tactical mistake,
appearing weak and largely performative.
The gravest strategic error, however, is Tehran’s potential loss of the
opportunity to save the regime and its proxies if it continues to resist
fulfilling the comprehensive American demands, now clearly articulated by the
White House’s categorical rejection of limiting negotiations solely to the
nuclear file. Weekend meetings in Washington between the American president and
his team resulted in Trump deciding he will not accept the Iranian stance that
refuses to include ballistic missiles and Tehran’s proxies in negotiations.
Trump now insists on a comprehensive package covering the nuclear file,
missiles, and proxies. It is noteworthy as well that he spoke publicly this week
about the possibility of regime change in Iran.
Sources familiar with the White House’s atmosphere indicate that the president
now has no room for delay; he cannot evade the ultimate decision he must make by
the end of the week, before March 1. Trump understands that the final decision
must be made, or he will lose the confidence of his team and the world in his
leadership, and he will not be taken seriously—a scenario he cannot tolerate.
There may be another round of talks between the US and Iranian delegations, but
it will not be a indecisive round like the first or second.
What Trump now demands is an official, documented commitments from Iran, not
mere verbal expressions of readiness and concessions.
The president insists—and Iran has begun responding through statements by
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi—that the time has come for serious concessions
to be delivered in writing, not just orally. Postponing the decision is no
longer possible; it is impossible for Trump to avoid the final decision while
Iran exploits his hesitation to achieve its own objectives, foremost among them
stalling and buying more time.
What is known so far is that the Iranian leadership flatly refuses to meet
American demands regarding the full package of nuclear, missile, and proxy
issues, as well as domestic practices toward protests, demonstrations, and
opposition. Iran continues to insist, uncompromisingly, on confining
negotiations solely to the nuclear dossier.
In the previous round of talks in Geneva, however, Iran offered concessions with
meaningful implications. It presented financial and commercial incentives to the
United States, a significant departure from its longstanding doctrine of viewing
America as “the Great Satan” to be expelled from the region. These concessions
represent a partial adjustment of the Iranian revolutionary system’s doctrine.
There were also preparations for some concessions on the nuclear file,
significant because Iran had previously categorically refused any substantial
nuclear concessions. Iranian leaders also sought to reassure domestic audiences
by communicating with segments of the opposition deemed non-disruptive,
constituting a further gesture toward satisfying the US administration. The
Islamic Republic of Iran’s enticements to the “Great Satan,” through broad-scale
investments, indicate a state of panic and predicament that compelled such
concessions. Yet the fundamental flaw lies in drip-feeding concessions rather
than delivering them as a full package to capitalize on the momentum of
initiative.
The drip-feeding methodology accompanied Saddam Hussein’s path to demise in
Iraq. By meeting demands incrementally, without leveraging the weight of full
concessions, he faced his fate—a fate Iran may now risk encountering.
Militarily, it seems unlikely that Iran would launch preemptive strikes, as such
a move would entail extreme danger. It is also clear that, if a military
decision is taken, American strikes will not be merely cosmetic, punitive, or
even deterrent; it will be too late for deterrence.
The objective of these strikes is to completely incapacitate the regime, its
capabilities, and its nodes, including communication networks targeting
command-and-control centers. This means dismantling the regime’s ability to
manage domestic warfare and issue directives to proxies abroad, rendering it
incapable of conducting military operations either within Iran or through its
external agents. The aim of the military plans is to neutralize command centers,
effectively paralyzing the regime nationwide.This would allow internal
opposition elements to regroup and take partial control, while the bet remains
on the Iranian army—if it holds together or experiences defections. This wager
is on a form of partial continuity of the regime, not its entirety.
Next week will be decisive, as the American president is compelled to make a
decision. The patterns of political and military maneuvering have begun to work
against Trump, albeit slightly in favor of Iran. Consequently, the president
will act decisively—either toward a military strike or in response to new linear
signals from Iran to avoid confrontation. Trump can no longer oscillate. Israel
has already begun preemptively positioning itself for whatever decision Trump
will take, confident that he has committed to Israel regarding proxies and
missiles. This is of utmost importance, as Israel has received the green light
to act as it deems necessary without needing to adhere to Trump’s schedule.
Still, Israel is preparing for the broader implications of the American military
strikes designed to paralyze Tehran’s regime and sever its capacity to
communicate in any form with the popular base and proxies.
In such a scenario, groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon face potential
self-destruction if they engage in conflict without clear orders from the
military leadership in Tehran.
Why would the US want a war with Iran?
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/February 22, 2026
Unlike the decision to go to war with Iraq in 2003, which was backed by a large
majority of Americans as the general public was convinced Saddam Hussein had
weapons of mass destruction, today’s potential war with Iran is not popular.
Beyond the fact it would probably have a very negative effect on the current
administration’s favorability, the important question is: What is this a war
for? What would be the outcome and how would it serve US interests?
Many regional countries have been lobbying the US administration not to strike
Iran, as no one wants to see a regional war. No one except Israel wants to see
Iran unravel and break apart. No one wants to handle the spillover of a
potential war. They have all lived through the negative consequences of the fall
of the regime in Iraq and do not want a sequel to that horror movie. To increase
the pressure on the US and distance themselves from any military action, they
have announced that they will not allow their territories or airspace to be used
to attack Iran. Even the UK has reportedly informed the US that it does not want
any part in this sinister ploy.
Most importantly, what would the US gain from a war on Iran? To answer that
question, we need to examine the scenarios that could arise. The first scenario
is that the Tehran regime is weak enough that an attack would make it fall.
Despite the fact that no one in the region would shed a tear over the fall of
the regime, they definitely do not want this to happen — and for good reason.
The regime change that Israel is advocating for will be messy. It would not be
like Syria. The context in Syria was different
To start with, there is no alternative to the regime. The US is propping up Reza
Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s ousted shah, but he has no connection with the
people. He even admitted as much in an interview. How is he supposed to run the
country? To add to that, the regime of his father was known to be dictatorial
and brutal, so not a real upgrade from what the Iranians currently have.
In a nutshell, there is no credible opposition that could take over and control
security. The regime change that Israel is advocating for will be messy. It
would not be like Syria. The context in Syria was different. When the Russians
came to save Bashar Assad in September 2015, they went to all the rebel groups
and told them that they must either join or accept Assad and lay down their arms
or move to Idlib. They put all rebel groups in Idlib. The idea was to separate
the rebels from Assad and to broker a deal that would be beneficial to Russia.
This did not work because Assad did not want to make any compromises.
However, since 2015, there had been an opposition in Idlib under Turkish
tutelage. Extremist groups like Hurras Al-Dine and factions of Hayat Tahrir
Al-Sham were eliminated. Therefore, when Assad fell, there was someone ready and
able to take over.
There is no similar scenario in Iran. If the regime were to suddenly fall, the
state would fall. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would splinter into
various groups and we would have chaos in the region and a rise in terrorist
activity. Now, despite the nuisance created by Iran’s proxies, there is at least
a reference. If the regime fell, there would be no reference. The region would
be flooded with violent gangs for hire accountable to no one. Also, the fall of
the regime might trigger secessionist movements, particularly among the Kurds in
the vicinity of Turkiye and groups in the Sistan and Balochistan province
bordering Pakistan. This would be bad news for both Pakistan and Turkiye, two
important US allies.
A war would lead to chaos, which the US and its allies would have to contain.
Iraq showed that this is a messy task
The other option would be a “limited strike,” as US President Donald Trump spoke
about on Friday, in order to gain leverage in the negotiations. However, Trump
should be careful of the change in Iran’s behavior. One advantage the US had in
the past was the limited aid Iran received from America’s foes. Basically, Iran
could only count on its proxies. However, as the threat increased and as these
proxies became less and less effective, Iran has become more open to cooperating
with the US’ rivals, namely China and Russia. During the last wave of protests,
Iran was reportedly able to block access to the internet due to help from the
Chinese. And a Russian Tu-214PU “Doomsday” aircraft landed in Iran last week,
marking a new milestone in the Tehran-Moscow partnership.
Both Russia and China have an interest in engaging with and protecting Iran. For
China, Iran is an important source of energy and a vital corridor to connect
with Europe through the Belt and Road Initiative. For Russia, it is a way to
flex its muscles in the region and counterbalance the US.
A limited strike might put Iran’s nuclear program back or limit its ballistic
capabilities for a few months, but it would also push Tehran further toward
Russia and China, which is definitely not in the interests of the US. Iran’s
constitution prohibits foreign military bases on its mainland. But this might
change if Iran was pressured. Does the US want to see Chinese or Russian
airbases in Iran? I highly doubt it.
So, what should the US do? It should start by looking after its own interests
and not those of Israel. America has no interest in a war with Iran. A war would
lead to chaos, which the US and its allies would have to contain. The experience
in Iraq showed that this is a pretty messy task. It could also lead to the
entrenchment of Russia and China in the region. Both of these developments would
be bad for Washington, so it would be better for the US to stick to the
negotiations and listen to its allies who do not want a war.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
Megacities set to grow in importance
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/February 22, 2026
Population movement tends to happen slowly, driven by factors such as births,
deaths, age structures and migration. However, the recent UN World Urbanization
Prospects report shows how demographic change can also happen comparatively
quickly through the prism of the growth of megacities, which are defined as
urban areas with more than 10 million inhabitants. The UN report shows that
Cairo is the only megacity outside of Asia to make the top 10 of the world’s
largest urban areas, with its population of about 23 million. Meanwhile, Lagos
(about 18 million), is the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa. Other cities in
the region that are on track to become megacities by mid-century include Addis
Ababa, whose current population is just over 6 million.
Yet, as important as the Middle East and Africa — long seen as the cradles of
civilization — are in this global story, there is an even larger narrative in
play about how the world’s center of population growth is shifting east. Not
only does Asia now boast nine of the world’s top 10 most populous cities, but it
also hosts an astonishing 19 of the world’s 33 megacities.
There is an even larger narrative in play about how the world’s center of
population growth is shifting east.
According to the UN, Jakarta (42 million) has now overtaken Tokyo (33 million)
as the world’s largest city. The other cities in the top 10 are Dhaka (at least
36 million), Shanghai (29 million), New Delhi (28 million), Guangzhou (27
million), Manila (24 million), Kolkata (22 million) and Seoul (22 million).
The total of 33 megacities is more than four times larger than the eight that
existed in 1975. This comes in a context where the proportion of the global
population living in cities is expected to increase to about 70 percent by 2050.
This, combined with the overall growth of the world’s population, could add
another 2.5 billion people to major urban areas by mid-century. Already in some
cities, there are more than 10,000 people living in an area of just 1 sq. km.
Looking to 2050, Dhaka is expected to become the world’s most populous city,
overtaking Jakarta. The UN report also forecasts that several other urban areas
will join the megacity category, including Addis Ababa, Kuala Lumpur and Hajipur.
However, a small number of these megacities, like Tokyo and Seoul, will
experience a declining population due to aging and falling birth rates. This
highlights how demographic decline in some developed nations will be the
counterpart to high population growth in many emerging markets.
So, there is no question that the center of population gravity, as well as
economic, is shifting eastward, even if there are some disputes around the exact
populations of many of these cities. Part of the reason for the significant
changes in the latest figures from the UN is an alteration to its methodology
for calculating the size of major urban areas.
Given the rapid growth of cities like Jakarta, governments are being forced to
address key sustainability questions
As a result, Jakarta moved from 30th position in 2018 to seize top spot from
Tokyo, which was the world’s largest city from 2000 to 2025. The UN has shifted
from an administrative boundary-based tally to a methodology based on continuous
urban areas, in which economic and living spheres are seen as connected. So,
whereas the Indonesian government’s estimation of Jakarta’s population is 11
million people in an urban core, the UN calculates the entire greater capital
region by grouping together suburbs including Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi.
Given the rapid growth of cities like Jakarta, governments are being forced to
address key sustainability questions. These include whether it will be possible
to continually meet the everyday needs of food, water and health, while dealing
with environmental stresses exacerbated by the effects of climate change.
Jakarta is situated in a low-lying coastal area of Java and it is already facing
major challenges from traffic congestion, air pollution and subsidence. Some
areas of the megacity are sinking by as much as 25 centimeters a year thanks to
increasing groundwater extraction and nearly 40 percent of the city now lies
below sea level. Up to a quarter of the city could be underwater by 2050. The
challenges are so big that Indonesia is building a new capital city in Nusantara
in Borneo’s East Kalimantan province. However, the UN estimates that some 10
million more people will still be living in Jakarta by 2050.
The growing resource challenges facing megacities highlight the key issue of
preparedness. As many of these cities continue to grow, demand will increase as
supplies of food, water and resources for industries and infrastructure require
energy for transport, with the associated carbon emissions contributing to
global warming.
The main risk for riverine megacities is their increasing vulnerability to
rising sea levels and flooding. The key preparations required include
state-of-the-art early-warning and monitoring systems to protect coastal
communities.
The larger the urban area, the greater the damage that natural hazards can
inflict. And it may become increasingly hard to protect lives, even if there are
good warning systems. As major hurricanes in some cities have shown, there is
now sometimes insufficient time to evacuate safely.So, there is a growing need
for cities to also develop emergency refuge areas. Governments must consider how
to best identify and design such emergency centers and how they should be
connected to the wider urban system, including transport.
Taken together, despite the economic success of many megacities, now is the time
to prepare for the growing risks that these massive urban centers face,
including environmental stress. Many nations are now seeking to redefine what
sustainability means due to their population growth.
**Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
X Platform
Selected twittes for 22/2026