English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 16/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
The Third Lent Sunday/The Miracle Of Healing
The haemorrhagic Woman
Luke08/40-56: 40 Now when Jesus returned, a crowd welcomed him,
for they were all expecting him. 41 Then a man named Jairus, a synagogue leader,
came and fell at Jesus’ feet, pleading with him to come to his house because his
only daughter, a girl of about twelve, was dying. As Jesus was on his way, the
crowds almost crushed him. And a woman was there who had been subject to
bleeding for twelve years, but no one could heal her. She came up behind him and
touched the edge of his cloak, and immediately her bleeding stopped. “Who
touched me?” Jesus asked.
When they all denied it, Peter said, “Master, the people are crowding and
pressing against you.” But Jesus said, “Someone touched me; I know that power
has gone out from me.” Then the woman, seeing that she could not go unnoticed,
came trembling and fell at his feet. In the presence of all the people, she told
why she had touched him and how she had been instantly healed. 48 Then he said
to her, “Daughter, your faith has healed you. Go in peace.” While Jesus was
still speaking, someone came from the house of Jairus, the synagogue leader.
“Your daughter is dead,” he said. “Don’t bother the teacher anymore.” Hearing
this, Jesus said to Jairus, “Don’t be afraid; just believe, and she will be
healed.” When he arrived at the house of Jairus, he did not let anyone go in
with him except Peter, John and James, and the child’s father and mother.
Meanwhile, all the people were wailing and mourning for her. “Stop wailing,”
Jesus said. “She is not dead but asleep.” They laughed at him, knowing that she
was dead. 54 But he took her by the hand and said, “My child, get up!” Her
spirit returned, and at once she stood up. Then Jesus told them to give her
something to eat. 56 Her parents were astonished, but he ordered them not to
tell anyone what had happened.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on March 15-16/2025
Healing Faith: The Miracle of the Bleeding Woman and Our Spiritual and
National Crisis/Elias Bejjani/March 16/2025
Are the Syrian Druze Left with Only Two Choices: Sharia Law and Ibn Taymiyyah’s
Fatwas, or Israel’s Protection?/Elias Bejjani/March 15/ 2025
May the Curse Be Upon the Political Parties and Officials Who Betrayed the Cedar
Revolution and Sold Out the March 14 Coalition/Elias Bejjan/March 14/ 2025
Hezbollah Hints It Won’t Disarm If Israel Still Occupies Southern Lebanon/Asharq
Al Awsat/March 16/2025
Dr Walid Phares: Open Letter To Vice President JD Vance,
Israel says it killed a Hezbollah member in a drone strike in south Lebanon
Video link to an interview with Rami Abdel Rahman: If it weren't for fear of
Israel, massacres would have been committed against the Druze in Syria
The Iscariot Truth of Michel Aoun and the Aounists, and the Basilites Behind
Them/Abdullah Al-Khoury/Facebook/March 15, 2025
Fiery and Scandalous: Dr. Zeina Mansour Dissects and Refutes Walid Jumblatt’s
Positions
Lebanese president urges international action amid ongoing border tensions
Trump-Era Official Sought to End US Aid to Lebanon
Macron Reaffirms France’s Support for Lebanon, J. Aoun to Visit Paris on March
28
Is Lebanon on the brink of normalizing ties with Israel?
Hezbollah hints it won't disarm if Israel still occupies southern Lebanon
Israel Exploits Hezbollah's Restrictions, Implements Security Warfare and a
Buffer Zone After Setbacks... Internal and Financial Considerations Freeze Its
Military Activity
Lebanese Agency: Israeli Forces Invade Adaisseh Town
By retaining the five points, Israel will not drag Lebanon into political
negotiations.
Did the Kataeb and Lebanese Forces ministers mistime the disarmament of
Hezbollah?
What's behind the lawsuits and media campaigns against journalists and media
outlets?
Kulluna Irada: Millions Spent on Elections and Ongoing Budget Falsification
The “Old Man” and Violence/Fady Noun/This is Beirut/March 15/2025
Armistice, Normalization, Peace: What Are the Differences?/Élie-Joe Kamel/This
is Beirut/March 15/2025
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 15-16/2025
Trump orders strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and
issues new warning
Rubio: Trump sent a strong and clear message to the Iranian-backed Houthis
Trump demands that Iran "immediately" end its support for the Houthis/US
President warns of "hell" if attacks on ships do not stop
Iraqi Prime Minister Announces Death of ISIS's 'External Operations' Official
Rouhani: Iran's situation is dangerous... and Khamenei's position may change. He
said his country is losing $100 billion annually.
Israeli airstrike kills nine people in north Gaza town, medics say, amid
ceasefire disputes
Hamas Says it Will Only Release American-Israeli Hostage if Truce Agreement
Implemented
G7 Urges Iran to Resume Diplomacy over Nuclear Program
US Declares South Africa's Ambassador Persona Non Grata
Trump drafts three-tier U.S. travel ban which now targets 43 countries: report
Trump administration weighs travel ban on dozens of countries, memo says
Report: Netanyahu Presses Trump to Allow Joint Operation Against Iran
Syria: Kurdish Autonomous Administration Demands Constitution to Be the Core of
a Free and Democratic State
Syrian Civil Defense: 10 killed in explosion of "war remnants" in Latakia
US Designated South Korea a 'Sensitive' Country amid Nuclear Concerns
'Stateless overnight': Authoritarian crackdown strips 42,000 Kuwaitis of
nationality
Russia and Ukraine launch aerial attacks amid proposed ceasefire talks
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on March 15-16/2025
Iran's Mullahs Can Never Change, Never Be 'Friends'/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone
Institute/March 15, 2025
Turkey and Israel face mounting tensions over future of post-Assad
Syria/Associated Press/March 15/2025
Saudi Arabia and Conflict Resolution/Mohammed al-Rumaihi/Asharq Al Awsat/March
16/2025
No other land, no other truth/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/March 15, 2025
Turkiye and its outreach in Africa/Dr. Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/March 15, 2025
All eyes on Putin for next step to Ukraine peace/Luke Coffey/Arab News/March 15,
2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on March 15-16/2025
Healing Faith: The Miracle of the Bleeding Woman and Our Spiritual
and National Crisis
Elias Bejjani/March 16/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/127352/
"Jesus turned, and seeing her, He said, ‘Take heart, daughter; your faith has
made you well.’ And the woman was healed from that very hour." (Matthew 9:22)
Who among us is not bleeding—bleeding in values, relationships, actions, faith,
and the very foundations of hope—amidst this era of moral drought in which we
have strayed from the teachings of the Holy Gospel?
Yes, we have drifted away, deviated, and abandoned our principles, immersing
ourselves in a consumerist society that has ensnared us in the snares of demonic
selfishness. We have succumbed to the deadly plague of egotism, making it our
ultimate pursuit and direction.
It is disheartening that we shape our lives according to the whims of this
deceptive and misleading "self." We tailor our behaviors to its dictates,
aligning our words, actions, and relationships with its desires.
This lethal selfishness has dismantled the family unit—the cornerstone of
nations and societies. It has banished love from our hearts and consciences,
plunging us into darkness, leading us into temptation, and straying us from the
righteous path of salvation that Christ paved for us with His blood on the
cross.
We have lost everything because we have lost ourselves, turning a blind eye to
the divine wisdom: "What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world, yet
loses his soul?"
Indeed, we have fallen into the traps of Satan and his temptations due to our
lack of faith and our blind pursuit of worldly possessions—wealth, power, and
influence. As a result, we continue to bleed relentlessly each time we commit
sin, which is spiritual death.
We bleed when we fail to resist evil and instead sink deeper into greed and
desires.
We bleed when we fail to love, forgive, and show mercy, when we neglect prayer
and refrain from spreading the Word of the Lord.
We bleed in our minds, souls, and hearts when we distance ourselves from faith
and surrender to temptation.
We bleed when we allow the fleeting pleasures of this material world to seduce
and consume us.
We bleed when we fail to fear God in our interactions with one another, within
our families, and in our communities.
We bleed when we abandon the essence of love—God Himself—which is best
manifested in self-sacrifice for the sake of others.
We bleed when we allow greed, envy, and avarice to govern our lives.
We bleed when we worship material possessions and forsake the worship of God,
rejecting His teachings.
We bleed when we dishonor the blood of martyrs and disregard the sacrifices of
those who laid down their lives for our nation, standing unwavering in truth and
refusing to cower in fear.
We bleed because we support corrupt leaders and politicians who exploit our
destiny, our livelihood, and our homeland.
We bleed because we have accepted the role of slaves and sheep, content to live
in enclosures.
And yet, do we still wonder why our beloved Lebanon has become a battlefield for
others, why we have lost our independence and sovereignty?
There is no salvation, no end to our hemorrhage, except through repentance,
prayer, fasting, and acts of penance. The Lord is merciful, forgiving, and
loving—He desires to help us and stop our bleeding if we turn to Him with
reverence, faith, and hope, just as the bleeding woman did.
The Lord redeemed us through His only Son, freeing us from the yoke of original
sin and showing us the path to salvation. Yet, He has left us with a choice: to
walk that path and reach the eternal home He has prepared for us in His kingdom,
where there is no suffering, hatred, or pain—or to stray from it, choosing the
roads of wickedness that lead to the torments of hell, where "there will be
weeping and gnashing of teeth, an unquenchable fire, and a worm that never
dies."
On this Sunday, let us take inspiration from the faith of the bleeding woman,
strengthening our trust in God, in His power, in His love, and in the grace of
forgiveness He offers to those who sincerely seek it in repentance. "He who
forgives all your sins and heals all your diseases." (Psalm 103:3)
Let us pray fervently for Lebanon’s salvation, for an end to the hemorrhaging
that has afflicted its institutions, and for its leaders to find the path of
faith, justice, and truth.
The author is a Lebanese expatriate activist.
Website:
https://eliasbejjaninews.comEmail:
phoenicia@hotmail.com
Are the Syrian Druze Left with Only Two Choices: Sharia Law and
Ibn Taymiyyah’s Fatwas, or Israel’s Protection?
Elias Bejjani/March 15/ 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/141227/
There is no doubt that the Syrian Druze now face a stark and existential choice:
submission to the rule of Sharia law, political Islam, and the fatwas of Ibn
Taymiyyah under Ahmad Al-Charaa’s regime, or seeking the protection of the State
of Israel? In such a dilemma, their survival and future dictate only one logical
path—aligning with Israel. Meanwhile, let the acrobat Walid Jumblatt continue
his empty rhetoric of Arabism and resistance and indulging in his endless
theatrics to his heart’s content.
May the Curse Be Upon the Political Parties and Officials Who
Betrayed the Cedar Revolution and Sold Out the March 14 Coalition
Elias Bejjan/March 14/ 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/116550/
On the anniversary of the March 14 uprising, we bow in reverence to the souls of
the righteous, sovereign, and heroic martyrs who sacrificed everything for
Lebanon’s freedom. Yet, their noble sacrifices were shamelessly betrayed by
mercenary Lebanese leaders, officials, and politicians who sold out the Cedar
Revolution and the March 14 Coalition. These opportunists disgraced the martyrs’
legacy by crawling into the Trojan presidential deal with the occupier—the
Iranian terrorist militia, Hezbollah.
History will forever brand these political dwarfs with humiliation and contempt.
If remembered at all, it will only be with disgrace. They will rot in history’s
dustbin, condemned for their treachery. Driven by greed and blinded by selfish
ambition, they succumbed to the temptations of power, betraying the very cause
for which so many gave their lives. They bartered away Lebanon’s sovereignty,
the people’s revolution, and the blood of the martyrs for authority and personal
gain. Their betrayal was a direct insult to those who paid the ultimate price
for freedom.
Because of their shortsightedness, narcissism, and servility, Hezbollah has
entrenched its full control over Lebanon. This heinous betrayal led to Lebanon’s
downfall—stripping it of its role, its message, and its sovereignty, and
surrendering it to Iranian occupation.
Yet, despite their treachery, the true spirit of March 14 remains alive. It
thrives in the hearts, minds, and consciences of the free and sovereign Lebanese
people. It is only dead in the corrupted hearts of the political parties,
officials, and politicians who betrayed it—those who traded Lebanon’s
sovereignty for personal benefits and power.
In times of darkness and oppression, the people of March 14 are a national
necessity. When submission and surrender dominate, the spirit of March 14 is the
answer. And in an era of deceit, cowardice, and the fraudulent rhetoric of
so-called "political realism," the people of March 14 have unmasked the Trojans,
exposing their lies and disgrace.
Even as self-interest prevails over national duty, the principles and values of
March 14 endure. While the blood of the martyrs is disregarded by the traitors,
the true March 14 faithful will never forget their sacrifices nor allow their
cause to be sold. In this era of betrayal, where Lebanon’s fate is dictated by
Trojans, scribes, and Pharisees dragging the nation into ruin, the presence of
the people of March 14 is essential. As corrupt politicians lose their moral
compass, abandoning the ideals of freedom and dignity, the goals and struggles
of March 14 remain the foundation, the solution, and the cornerstone of
Lebanon’s salvation. In the end, the spirit of March 14 is not just a memory—it
is a burning force that will continue to inspire resistance, unite the free, and
reignite the fight for Lebanon’s liberation.
The
Muslim Brotherhood and the Ottomans rule Syria
Elias Bejjani/March 13/2025
May God help the Syrian people, regardless of their sectarian and regional
background. They have been rid of a criminal, chemical-weapon regime and are now
afflicted with another Brotherhood-aligned, abolitionist regime that is creating
a jihadist Islamic constitution dating back 1,400 years. This is political Islam
par excellence.
Hezbollah Hints
It Won’t Disarm If Israel Still Occupies Southern Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/March 16/2025
A senior Hezbollah official has hinted that the Lebanese group will not lay down
its weapons as long as Israel is occupying parts of the country. Mohammed
Daamoush made his comments in Beirut during a sermon for Friday prayers adding
that Israel’s occupation of five strategic hilltops and what he said were daily
violations of a ceasefire aim to pressure Lebanon to normalize relations with
Israel. Daamoush said the state now controls the border with Israel and
Lebanon's new government is backed by the international community and has
weapons, so “what have you done to face daily Israeli violations and
aggression?” He called on authorities to convince the public about why weapons
should only be held by the state, adding: “When there is occupation and a
continuing aggression weapons should be in the hands of men and everyone should
repel this occupation.”
Dr Walid Phares: Open Letter To Vice President JD Vance,
X site/March 15/2025
Mr. Vice President JD Vance,
I have spent decades studying #Syria, visited the country, and lived under a
Baathist occupation in #Lebanon for 15 years.
It is undeniable that the dominant jihadi forces in Syria have initiated an
ethnic cleansing campaign against the #Alawites in the northwest, with
Christians likely to be next in the neighboring areas. The #Kurds are facing
increasing pressure, and the Druze are preparing for potential invasion.
At this stage, economic sanctions will not affect the jihadi regime in power.
Diplomatic efforts, particularly covert ones, may delay but will not halt the
ongoing pogroms against the Alawites or the imminent threats to these
communities.
A critical mistake was made when #HTS was allowed to regain full control back in
December, a decision made during the #Biden administration. Since January 20th,
the jihadists have been threatening to destroy these minority groups while
falsely claiming to build a “state.” What they are actually constructing is a
jihadi state, with their militias specifically targeting the Alawites.
Meanwhile, Sunni moderates are growing increasingly concerned about the erosion
of their freedoms.
The quickest way to prevent an irreversible disaster is to form a local and
regional coalition that includes these minorities.
@CENTCOM can achieve this if given clear and strict instructions to protect the
Alawites, support the Druze, and maintain Kurdish preparedness.
There is no need for additional U.S. troops, but an urgent need for a strategic
plan, which, as far as I can tell, currently does not exist. This plan can be
provided on demand and implemented immediately.
When we entered Iraq, there was a feasible strategy in place. However, it was
undermined not by the situation in #Nineveh and #Sinjar but by jihadi lobbies
within the Beltway and a dangerously misguided policy starting in June 2009.
Sincerely,
Walid Phares
Israel says it killed a Hezbollah member in a drone strike in south Lebanon
Bassem Mroue/BEIRUT (AP) /March 15, 2025
An Israeli drone strike hit a car in south Lebanon on Saturday, killing one
person who the Israeli military said was a member of Hezbollah. State-run
National News Agency did not give further details about the strike in the
village of Bourj el-Mlouk. The airstrike was the latest in a wave of such
attacks since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire went into effect in late November ending
the 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war. The Israeli military said the Hezbollah
member who was killed was active in the border village of Kfar Kila. The strike
came a day after Lebanon’s military court sentenced two people to prison terms
for giving digital information to Israel. Four judicial officials told The
Associated Press Saturday that one of those sentenced received a 15-year prison
term while the other was sentenced to 10 years in jail. A third was set free for
lack of evidence against him, the officials said on condition of anonymity
because they were not authorized to share information with the media. The
officials said the two scanned the cellular telephones network in wide areas of
Beirut and its southern suburbs that is home to Hezbollah’s headquarters using
sophisticated equipment. The officials said the two, who were detained last
year, also supplied Israel with about 1,500 photographs from Beirut’s southern
suburbs.
Video link to
an interview with Rami Abdel Rahman: If it weren't for fear of Israel, massacres
would have been committed against the Druze in Syria
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/141254/
Rami Abdel Rahman: There are 56 documented massacres
Voice of Lebanon/March 15, 2025
Speaking on the "First" program on Voice of Lebanon, Rami Abdel Rahman, director
of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, noted that "the events on the coast
have stopped in the media, and we've moved on to kidnapping crimes, followed by
the subsequent discovery of bodies." He added, "We are talking about 56
massacres that claimed the lives of 1,500 civilians, and this is a documented
number, all of whom were from the Alawite sect, in addition to the killing of
the father of a Christian cleric." He continued, "This is a massive genocide. If
it weren't for the media's involvement, these massacres would have continued by
the military administration." Abdul Rahman pointed out that the catastrophe is
that the massacres were carried out on a sectarian basis, noting that the Uzbek
fighter asked someone about his sect and then killed him. He also said that
gunmen entered a village in Latakia, killed all the men, and looted homes. He
emphasized that what happened in Maaloula was a dispute over land, and if it
weren't for the fear of Israel, there would have also been massacres of the
Druze. He emphasized that the rule of law is enforcing security, not opening the
way for revenge attacks. He concluded his remarks by saying: "The Syrian
authorities' handling of the situation is not serious, and there are those who
do not want to acknowledge these massacres."
The Iscariot
Truth of Michel Aoun and the Aounists, and the Basilites Behind Them
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/141259/
Abdullah Al-Khoury/Facebook/March 15, 2025
The black stain that tarnished the white pages of the Maronite nation is none
other than the betrayal of its own history. For nearly nine decades, Michel
Aoun's legacy has left the Lebanese—especially Christians—with nothing but
ingratitude, recklessness, cowardice, corruption, destruction, treason, and
forced emigration. To this day, Christians still groan under the weight of that
fateful catastrophe that severed our spinal cord in an era of disgrace. Its
architect fled, abandoning an innocent army left in chaos and a betrayed people
who became mere collateral damage to his narcissism—narcissism that later proved
to be in service of the Syrian-Persian-Iranian Alawite alliance.And yet, here he
was yesterday, surrounded by his political minions—steadfast in their devotion
to deception—raising victory signs as if he were General de Gaulle emerging from
the Battle of Normandy. He trivialized the gravity of his crimes by sponsoring a
financial support event, as if these remnants of corruption had not yet had
their fill of their tyrannical history. As if they have yet to comprehend the
shame that should have driven them into hiding, rather than boasting after their
corrupt, disgraceful predecessor was rightfully placed under the harshest of
international sanctions. If you still fail to see that Christians have rejected
you, it is because you lack even the most basic sense of shame. And if you feel
no disgrace for the ruin you have inflicted upon Lebanon—its people, its
economy, its very essence—then continue as you are. But know this: history will
not absolve you.
(Free translation & titles in Arabic & English by: Elias Bejjani)
Fiery and Scandalous: Dr. Zeina Mansour Dissects and Refutes Walid Jumblatt’s
Positions
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/141272/
A video interview with Druze researcher Dr. Zeina Mansour on the Al-Siyasa
platform, where she delivers a bold and unfiltered analysis of Walid Jumblatt’s
past and present stances, exposing contradictions and holding Lebanon’s Druze
leadership accountable for their failure to evolve—a failure that has led to the
decline of the Druze role in governance and in all other national presence and
domains
Key Takeaways from Dr. Mansour’s Interview
Sheikh Amin Tarif remains the spiritual and moral compass of the Druze—not Walid
Jumblatt.
Lebanon’s Sheikh al-Aql should resign.
Call to boycott tomorrow’s commemoration in Mukhtara marking Kamal Jumblatt’s
assassination.
Kamal Jumblatt was a thinker, not a politician.
Over the past 50 years, the Druze have lost their influence, with 2,000 Druze
emigrating.
Druze leadership—namely the Arslan and Jumblatt families—has failed in
governance, finance, real estate, and religious affairs, neglecting progress.
Nawaf Salam is unfit to be Prime Minister.
Joseph Aoun is a product of the toxic trinity: Army, People, and Resistance.
Ahmad al-Sharaa is a fundamentalist, and Syria continues to crush those who
reject its ideology.
Christian parties have veered sharply to the left.
Lebanese
president urges international action amid ongoing border tensions
Arab News/March 15, 2025
BEIRUT: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Saturday called on the international
community to fulfil its commitments to Lebanon and translate its supportive
stances into concrete actions. Speaking at Dar Al-Fatwa on Saturday evening,
Aoun stressed the importance of implementing UN Resolution 1701 and enforcing
the ceasefire agreement, warning that Lebanon cannot achieve stability while
tensions persist along its southern borders. “The implementation of UN
Resolution 1701 and the ceasefire agreement is a pivotal issue requiring
attention and care,” Aoun said. He emphasized that Lebanon’s sovereignty,
security, and stability depend on the enforcement of international resolutions,
the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the return of Lebanese detainees. Aoun
underscored that normal life cannot resume in affected areas without concrete
steps to uphold Lebanon’s territorial integrity. He urged international actors
to take responsibility and ensure that Lebanon's security is safeguarded. His
remarks came amid renewed violence along the Lebanese-Israeli border. On
Saturday, an Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in the village of Bourj El-Mlouk,
killing one person. The Israeli military claimed the
victim was a member of Hezbollah, though Lebanon’s state-run National News
Agency did not provide further details. The airstrike is the latest in a series
of attacks following a US-brokered ceasefire that ended a 14-month conflict
between Israel and Hezbollah in late November. Despite the truce, sporadic
violence has continued, raising concerns over the fragility of the ceasefire and
the potential for renewed hostilities.
Trump-Era
Official Sought to End US Aid to Lebanon
This is Beirut/March 15, 2025
According to an email reviewed by Reuters, a Trump administration official
overseeing USAID sought to phase out US aid to Lebanon, arguing that the country
had developed an "odd dependency" on American assistance. In a February 16
directive seen by Reuters, acting USAID deputy administrator Peter Marocco
instructed officials to draft a memo outlining how to reduce Lebanon’s reliance
on aid and what the US could seek in return for continued support. "Nothing is
owed," he wrote, implying that aid should not be taken for granted. The effort
was part of a broader campaign to downsize USAID and merge it into the State
Department, Reuters reported. The initiative, led by Marocco and Elon Musk’s
Department of Government Efficiency, resulted in over 80% of USAID programs
being canceled. However, emergency food and medical assistance for Lebanon were
temporarily shielded under a waiver issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Since 2001, the US has provided Lebanon with over $5.5 billion in
humanitarian, military, and economic aid, according to Reuters. The US has long
viewed Lebanon’s stability as critical to regional security, particularly in
countering the influence of Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Macron Reaffirms France’s Support for Lebanon, J. Aoun to
Visit Paris on March 28
This is Beirut/March 15/2025
Macron Reaffirms France’s Support for Lebanon, J. Aoun to Visit Paris on March
28
French President Emmanuel Macron has reiterated his country’s support for
Lebanon. During a phone call with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Friday
evening, Macron stated that “France’s commitment to Lebanon remains strong, to
support its recovery and protect its sovereignty.”On his X account, the French
president also announced that he will receive Lebanon’s head of state, General
Joseph Aoun, in Paris on March 28. “This evening, during a phone call, I wanted
to congratulate Prime Minister Nawaf Salam for his efforts, along with his
government, in favor of Lebanon’s unity, security, and stability,” Macron wrote
on X. The discussions between the two leaders also touched on reconstruction
prospects and the essential reforms needed for the country. “This work is
crucial for Lebanon and for the entire region,” Macron emphasized.
Is Lebanon on
the brink of normalizing ties with Israel?
Naharnet/March 15, 2025
As Lebanon negotiates sticking points with Israel after a 13-months-long war
that ended with Israeli troops occupying five "strategic hills" in south Lebanon
and frequent violations of a ceasefire reached in late November, the topic of
normalizing relations with Israel has come to the spotlight. But will
negotiations eventually lead to normalization? An Israeli political source said
that Israel wants to reach normalization with Lebanon. "We and the Americans
think that this is possible after the changes that have occurred in Lebanon,"
the source told Israel’s Channel 12. Lebanon for its part said the negotiations
with Israel are "indirect", but Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri hinted that
Israel is trying to drag Lebanon into "direct negotiations." Both Metri and
Information Minister Paul Morkos said that Lebanon would not normalize with
Israel.
Metri said Lebanon did not receive a direct call to sign a peace accord with
Israel, but that there is pressure on some politicians and an unofficial push in
the U.S. to pressure Lebanon into normalizing relations with Israel.
LF says normalization not an option -
Lebanese Forces sources said that Hezbollah started using the term
"normalization" in its media after Pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper warned that
the U.S. is "dragging Lebanon into peace negotiations." A source of the Lebanese
Forces party told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Friday, that no
Arab country can normalize with Israel before a Palestinian state is
established. "Normalization is not an option for us," the source said, adding
that the U.S. has called for the implementation of 1701, and not for
normalization. What is being proposed is a return to the 1949 Armistice
Agreement - which ended the hostilities of the 1948 Arab–Israeli War, the LF
source and a senior Lebanese official said.
What are the negotiations about? -
Deputy U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Morgan Ortagus said earlier this week
that the U.S. will be "bringing together Lebanon and Israel for talks aimed at
diplomatically resolving several outstanding issues between the two countries" -
the release of Lebanese prisoners, the remaining disputed points along the Blue
Line, and the remaining 5 points where Israeli forces are still deployed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that representatives of the
Israeli and Lebanese armies, the U.S. and France have agreed during a meeting of
the ceasefire committee in Naqoura to "establish three joint working groups"
aimed at resolving the three outstanding issues. "Everything that is being said
about these groups being a prelude to normalization is baseless," sources told
Beirut-based pan-Arab TV station Al Mayadeen. Lebanon will not engage in any
"direct" negotiations with Israel, the sources said.
Past negotiations
In 2022, Lebanon and Israel separately signed copies of a U.S.-mediated sea
border deal after months of indirect talks. Israel's then Prime Minister Yair
Lapid claimed that the deal meant Lebanon de facto "recognizes the State of
Israel, in a written agreement," but Lebanon and Hezbollah said the signing did
not signal a recognition of Israel or a normalization of ties. After several
Arab-Israeli wars, Egypt was the first Arab state to recognize Israel
diplomatically in 1979. It was followed by Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and
Sudan. In October 2023, Saudi Arabia suspended talks on the possible
normalization of relations with Israel, following the Israeli war on Gaza.
Hezbollah hints
it won't disarm if Israel still occupies southern Lebanon
Associated Press/March 15, 2025
A senior Hezbollah official has hinted that the Lebanese group will not lay down
its weapons as long as Israel is occupying parts of the country. Sheikh Mohammed
Daamoush made his comments in Beirut during a sermon for Friday prayers adding
that Israel’s occupation of five strategic hilltops and the daily violations of
a ceasefire aim to pressure Lebanon to normalize relations with Israel. Daamoush
said the state now controls the border with Israel and Lebanon's new government
is backed by the international community and has weapons, so “what have you done
to face daily Israeli violations and aggression?”He called on authorities to
convince the public about why weapons should only be held by the state, adding,
“When there is occupation and a continuing aggression weapons should be in the
hands of men and everyone should repel this occupation.”
Israel Exploits
Hezbollah's Restrictions, Implements Security Warfare and a Buffer Zone After
Setbacks... Internal and Financial Considerations Freeze Its Military Activity
Beirut: Nazir Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15,
2025
Israel is pursuing a security war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, establishing a
new security zone that it enforces with fire, and carrying out assassinations
south and north of the Litani River, and in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has frozen military operations against Israeli forces,
appearing "shackled by recent developments," and leaving the responsibility for
addressing Israel's actions to the Lebanese state. Not a day passes without
Israeli "violations" of the ceasefire agreement, which was supposed to fully
implement on February 18. On Saturday, its drones pursued a car in the town of
Burj al-Muluk, about 4 kilometers from the border strip, and targeted it with
missiles, killing one person, according to the Ministry of Public Health. It was
later revealed that the man was originally from the town of Kfar Kila. The
shelling also seriously injured another person, according to Lebanese media
reports. The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation quoted a security source as saying
that the attack in southern Lebanon targeted Hezbollah members. The Israeli army
said, "We attacked a Hezbollah operative who was involved in terrorist activity
in Kfar Kila, south Lebanon."
Security War
The pursuits and assassinations that intensified last week demonstrated that
Israel is "now waging a security war against Hezbollah," following the military
conflict that ended on November 26, following a ceasefire agreement brokered by
the United States and France and sponsored by Washington. The sources told
Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel "imposed a buffer zone with fire in the border area
of southern Lebanon, which is also largely devoid of civilians at this time,
given the extent of the destruction. This zone is gradually expanding to the
lines of other villages through Israeli security pursuits of individuals
suspected of being members, elements, or even supporters of Hezbollah, who
originally hail from those villages in the south." There is a widespread belief
among those close to Hezbollah and its opponents that Israel is "exploiting the
international momentum that has given it significant cover in Syria, Gaza, and
southern Lebanon" to carry out assassinations in Lebanon and commit violations
of the ceasefire agreement and UN Resolution 1701. It is also "exploiting the
restrictions that hinder Hezbollah's ability to respond," restrictions that are
"domestic political, related to the party's new status, international, and its
own environment."
The Party's Positioning
After the war ended on November 26, Hezbollah achieved a new positioning toward
political action and a freeze in military action, without relinquishing it. This
was achieved through Lebanese political pressure, international pressure on the
Lebanese state, and the Israeli push to carry out strikes anywhere in Lebanon,
including in the heart of Beirut. Its Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, confirmed
a few days ago in a television interview: "We, as a party, have committed to the
ceasefire agreement, and we are not giving Israel any excuse to violate it. We
have withdrawn from south of the Litani River, and the Lebanese army has taken
over our positions." He added: "Israel does not need an excuse." While stressing
that "resistance is a constant and cannot be eliminated," he said that "the
Israelis know very well today that if they do not withdraw from the land, they
will face resistance, not now, but later." He added: "We are patient because the
state is now responsible, but that does not mean that things will always remain
this way. They must realize that."
Restrictions on the Party
While the party makes no secret of the fact that the previous military equations
that existed before the war no longer apply, its opponents say it has suffered
military setbacks and blows during the war, undermining its military
capabilities. Furthermore, according to Lebanese sources opposed to Hezbollah,
"the party today appears to be constrained primarily by Lebanese political
pressures under a new era and a new government. The party is avoiding
confronting or embarrassing this era," they told Asharq Al-Awsat. Therefore,
they "put its cards in the hands of the state." If the state fails to halt the
attacks, Hezbollah will claim that it has failed through diplomacy. Therefore,
the state must proceed with discussions on a defense strategy that includes the
party. Discussions of a security strategy or defense plan have been postponed,
despite the Lebanese presidency's pledge to implement them. The second
constraint on the party is the funding for reconstruction, which the party has
also placed under the control of the state. The sources say: "If Hezbollah
violates the agreement, it will provide an international pretext to consider the
area unsafe and that the party is not adhering to the ceasefire agreement, thus
postponing reconstruction funding, which appears to be conditional on the
party's withdrawal in accordance with Resolution 1701 and the stabilization of
security in the border area." The restrictions extend to its environment. During
the war, Israel appeared to have developed a violent plan to deal with the
Shiite community's resources during its war with Hezbollah, implementing it with
massive bombardment in the south, the suburbs, the Bekaa, and the heart of
Beirut. This means that "any renewed fighting will push a million displaced
people back across the country and threaten productive and vital institutions
and residential buildings, raising the cost of reconstruction, which is already
delayed." Hezbollah has been concerned with paying housing and repair costs, but
has not paid for reconstruction, leaving the matter to the state. Consequently,
"popular pressure will be significant, which is what prompts it to avoid it and
leave the negotiation matters to the state and diplomacy."
Lebanese
Agency: Israeli Forces Invade Adaisseh Town
Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15, 2025
The Lebanese National News Agency reported on Saturday that Israeli forces had
invaded the town of Adaisseh in the Marjayoun District of Nabatieh Governorate
in southern Lebanon. The agency did not provide further details. Haaretz
newspaper quoted Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz on Friday as saying that
the army would remain "indefinitely" in five "strategic" locations in southern
Lebanon. Despite a US-brokered ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel
on November 27, following a confrontation that lasted for more than a year,
Israel continues to launch airstrikes on several areas in southern and eastern
Lebanon. The Hebrew state says it is targeting Hezbollah positions and
facilities and that it will not allow the party to rebuild its capabilities
after the war.
By retaining the five points, Israel will not drag Lebanon
into political negotiations.
Did the Kataeb and Lebanese Forces ministers mistime the disarmament of
Hezbollah?
/Beirut: Muhammad Shuqair/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15, 2025
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on retaining the
positions it occupies indefinitely is embarrassing for Washington, which is
showing understanding for the Lebanese position by pressuring it to withdraw
from them. Washington is not content, when reviewing the need to translate its
pledge into concrete steps, to inform Lebanese officials that it is still
seeking to evacuate them. This is especially true since they fear—as a
ministerial source told Asharq Al-Awsat—that Tel Aviv will link them to the 13
overlapping border points between the two countries and establish the
international border in accordance with the provisions of the armistice
agreement signed between them in 1949. This is intended to lure Lebanon into
political negotiations leading to the normalization of Lebanese-Israeli
relations. This rejection is rejected by the government of Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam, and it aligns its rejection with the principled position of President
Joseph Aoun.
The ministerial source asked, "What is the point of linking the positions behind
which Tel Aviv is entrenched?" Where does the international monitoring body
tasked with monitoring the ceasefire stand? What will Morgan Ortagus, the US
Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East, say? She had proposed forming three
diplomatic groups to focus on the release of prisoners held by Israel and
obligating it to withdraw from the five positions, while it continues its
incursions into the outskirts of the southern border towns. He pointed out that
by linking its withdrawal from these points to finding a solution for the
overlapping positions located along the Blue Line, which Lebanon has
reservations about, Tel Aviv is luring Lebanon into direct political
negotiations. He said that simply including them in one basket means that it is
not willing to accept a final ceasefire as a prelude to the implementation of
Resolution 1701. The source emphasized that Tel Aviv's mere insistence on
linking the points it still occupies, providing solutions for the overlapping
points, and establishing the international border also constitutes an
embarrassment to the international monitoring body. He said that its retention
of these positions prevents Lebanese army units from completing their deployment
to the international border with the support of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon
(UNIFIL). He believed that Lebanon remains committed to its pledge to extend its
full sovereignty over all its territories with its own forces, in compliance
with the provisions of the Taif Agreement in this regard, and to facilitate the
implementation of Resolution 1701. He said that the government will not budge
one iota from its pledge to restrict arms to the legitimate government, as
stipulated in the ministerial statement and confirmed by President Aoun in his
inaugural speech. The same source held Tel Aviv responsible for not providing
facilities to begin implementing Resolution 1701 with the support of UNIFIL, and
asked whether it was linking southern Lebanon to southern Syria, in light of its
incursion into a number of Syrian cities under the control of the new Syrian
regime, with the aim of pushing Beirut and Damascus to negotiate with it to sign
a peace agreement, in accordance with the call made in this regard by the US
President's Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff?
He revealed that the last cabinet session witnessed the intervention of the
president and prime minister to regulate the ministers' tone and avoid being
drawn into a debate initiated by Industry Minister Joe Issa Khoury, who is
affiliated with the Lebanese Forces Party, by calling for a session of the
Supreme Defense Council to be held to disarm Hezbollah, within a six-month
timetable. He was supported by Justice Minister Adel Nassar, who is affiliated
with the Kataeb Party. The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the two Shiite
ministers affiliated with Hezbollah did not intervene to respond to them,
especially since their proposal came outside the session’s agenda. He stated
that Aoun and Salam’s intervention came at the right time, and they stressed
that there is no dispute over the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the
state, and they renewed their commitment to what was stipulated in the
ministerial statement in implementation of the Taif Accords and Resolution 1701.
Although Khoury attached to his call the compelling reasons that dictated this
request to the Council of Ministers, most notably that keeping weapons in the
hands of Hezbollah does not encourage the return of investments to Lebanon and
its restoration of its economic and financial health, he made a mistake,
according to the source, in presenting it in the form, by adopting language
dominated by defiance and outbidding others, as if they were not in favor of the
exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state, which is the subject of an
irreversible consensus. He also made a mistake in the timing, which coincided
with Israel’s continued, not only in maintaining the positions it occupies, but
also in continuing its widespread violations by launching airstrikes, not
limited to the south, but extending beyond it. To extend the Lebanese-Syrian
border, under the pretext of destroying it, as it says, because of what remains
of Hezbollah's weapons in its underground warehouses. Therefore, there is no
interest in burning the stages prematurely, and the government should be left
alone to deal with the party's weapons calmly and in the appropriate
circumstances, confirming its decision to monopolize the state's weapons. It is
working to increase the army's strength by agreeing to the recruitment of 100
non-commissioned officers, and opening the door to the recruitment of 4,500
soldiers for the military establishment in three batches. This opened the door
for Khoury and Nassar to demand a timetable for the withdrawal of Hezbollah's
weapons. Therefore, the recruitment strengthens the army's deployment in the
south, which was met with Finance Minister Yassin Jaber's willingness to secure
the required financial costs, because the priority remains maintaining stability
and protecting civil peace. Without them, the economic situation cannot be
revived and the country cannot be brought out of the intensive care unit in
which it remains, nor can investments be encouraged in Lebanon, which is betting
on regaining the confidence of the Arab and international communities.
What's behind
the lawsuits and media campaigns against journalists and media outlets?
Mohammad Zbib/From Facebook/March 15, 2025
The lawsuits, media campaigns, and reports targeting Kulluna Irada, Megafon,
Daraj, Mounir Younes, and others appear to be "happy ones" paid for by shameless
bankers. However, they actually provide further evidence of the latitude the
state, its authorities, and its agencies continue to allow oligarchs to continue
their vicious assault, impose the nationalization of their financial losses, and
shift them onto all residents and expatriates of this country, while preventing
any public exposure of their crimes and ulterior motives. It is absolutely
untrue that these reports and lawsuits fall within the normal "right to
litigation." The stated motives relate to divisions, conflicts, and conflicting
interests, as well as to blatant crimes that are the subject of public and media
discourse. This is a public matter, not a private or personal one. Therefore,
the defendants' appearance before any potential security or judicial summonses
should not be accepted, and any arguments or pretexts claiming to respect legal
principles and judicial procedures in this context should be rejected. The goal
of the informants and plaintiffs is clear and unambiguous: to lure the
defendants into a long, exhausting, and flawed cycle of repressive and
disciplinary investigations and trials, in order to weaken them and neutralize
them in the ongoing confrontation, which is inherently unequal. Therefore, we
must work to thwart this very goal. This is not the task of the defendants
alone, regardless of any disagreement or contradiction with them. The issue does
not concern them, but rather concerns defending what remains of the narrow
margins for practicing "defamation" and declaring rejection. The new wave of
reports and lawsuits is raising the cost of "defaming" influential figures
involved in financial crimes, who are above the law and the public interest.
They constantly seek to monopolize "defamation" and direct it exclusively
against their opponents, attempting to seize freedom of speech, the press, and
the right to access information...This issue must be thrown in the face of the
new regime, Nawaf Salam's government, and the judiciary. What kind of state?
What kind of reform? What kind of trust? If the likes of Anton Sehnaoui, Michel
Murr, Marcel Ghanem, and their gang of informants and mercenaries are still able
to operate freely, arrogantly, and with authority to control the public sphere
in the most provocative and brazen ways. Why isn't the
judiciary moving in the opposite direction? I filed a personal lawsuit against
the thug banker Marwan Khair El-Din in 2020, and he has yet to be investigated
or tried, despite his direct responsibility for the physical assault I suffered,
documented in the interrogation records of his companions after their arrest by
the Information Branch. There are countless examples of lawsuits and reports
against influential individuals languishing in the files of public prosecution
offices and courts, never being acted upon. Instead, the accused are protected,
we spend time with them, and they are enabled to escape punishment, while also
allowing them to seek revenge and cause harm. Imagine that the Public
Prosecution tried to force our colleague Mounir Younes to sign a written pledge
after “sarcasm”: they want to prevent us from even being able to sarcastically
respond to all this pain, misery, and despair.
Kulluna Irada:
Millions Spent on Elections and Ongoing Budget Falsification
This is Beirut/March 15/2025
On the surface, there is an intention to build a nation based on institutions,
transparency and proper governance. However, in reality, Kulluna Irada has
become nothing more than a breeding ground for theft, corruption, deception and
falsification, all with destructive objectives for the country. The association,
which was originally tasked with specific functions under the official notice of
approval it received, has instead transformed into a political platform. It
funds electoral campaigns, engages in ministerial appointments, forms electoral
lists and proposes candidates for the governorship of Lebanon's central bank (BDL),
among other violations. It has turned into an association characterized by a
lack of transparency and governance, even going so far as to falsify its
financial statements and account records.
Kulluna Irada, which promotes "transparency" and "good governance," is the same
organization whose Executive Director, Diana Menhem, openly acknowledges that
all its funding comes solely from its members. According to the Kulluna Irada
website, the total number of donors and funders consists exclusively of 36
Lebanese individuals, whose names have not been disclosed, with the organization
only stating that they are members. Kulluna Irada published its expenses on its
website under the label "electoral efforts," where the 2022 election financial
report discloses that Kulluna Irada spent a total of $2.52 million on what it
described as electoral activities over six months, from December 2021 to May
2022. This amount also includes the organization's operational expenses from
October 2021 to June 2022, but these figures were not reflected in any of the
association’s budgets or financial records. Furthermore, Kulluna Irada submitted
its annual documents for 2020, including a financial statement for 2021 showing
zero activity — indicating no financial transactions — and failed to present a
proposed budget for 2022.
On paper, Kulluna Irada received formal recognition from the Ministry of
Interior in 2021. However, in reality, the association began its activities in
2017, as confirmed by the organization itself. Yet, it has not published any
financial records or provided financial statements for the years 2017, 2018,
2019 or 2020. As for 2021 and 2022, the association released financial
statements showing zero income, zero expenditures and a zero balance in its bank
account. In other words, Kulluna Irada did not make any purchases — whether
notebooks or pens — during these two years.
In 2023, the association approved a budget with a zero deficit, valued at 1.5
billion Lebanese pounds — approximately 100,000 USD at an exchange rate of
15,000 pounds per dollar, or around 16,800 USD, using an exchange rate of 89,500
pounds per dollar. The financial statement for 2022 also showed a result of (0).
Furthermore, the association has not contacted the ministry since 2023 and has
not received any updates regarding 2024 and 2025. This brings us back to Article
3 of the official notice of approval issued on October 21, 2021, which mandates
that the association must submit to the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities
every January a list of its members, along with a copy of its annual budget and
previous financial statement. Failure to comply with this requirement exposes
the association to the legal provisions outlined in Decree No. 10830, dated
October 9, 1962, and its amendments. In summary, the
serious violations committed by Kulluna Irada warrant intervention from the
judiciary, the Court of Cassation and the Public Prosecution, as they involve
crimes punishable by law.
The “Old Man” and Violence
Fady Noun/This is Beirut/March 15/2025
One can only be horrified by the atrocities that have recently unfolded in the
“Alawite country,” just a few hundred kilometers from our television screens.
In the age of smartphones, the images have reached us, more graphic and
harrowing than ever before. The interim Syrian president, Ahmad al-Shareh, has
promised an investigation and the arrest of the culprits, but will anything come
of it? Will he condemn to death the individual who, in a state of war frenzy,
executed men on the ground, forcing them first to crawl on all fours and bark?
What form of rehabilitation could be possible in such a case? Are they not still
among us—those who planted bombs near our bakeries and at the entrances of our
supermarkets? It would be hypocritical to condemn the atrocities of others while
turning a blind eye to the massacres—similar, if not worse—that have marred our
own war-stained history. This is not about individual
perpetrators, but about societies steeped in the potential for violence, almost
as if under an overpowering influence. These are societies where traumatized
memories resurface, where conditioned reflexes from childhood remain ingrained,
where religious anathemas are instilled year after year, and where atavistic
defense mechanisms run deep. In these societies, external forces often inject
greed, twisted incentives, and deceptive promises.
What should we do with these memories and the sometimes criminally nurtured
fantasies they carry? First and foremost, we must never forget that they exist,
that they persist, silently operating in the shadows, and gradually eroding
everything in their path. They lie in wait, biding their time until the moment
to strike ripens.
Pope John Paul II warned George W. Bush that “War is a defeat for humanity.” By
arrogantly ignoring this caution, the US proceeded to invade Iraq in 2003 under
false pretenses. This decision indirectly laid the groundwork for the emergence
of the Islamic State group (ISIS) and set in motion a chain of events whose
consequences continue to reverberate throughout the Middle East to this day.
Yes, war is a defeat for humanity because it exposes the darker side of human
nature—the “old man”, as Christian anthropology describes him, with his
covetousness. To ignore this is to pave the way for all manner of errors and
utopias. This is the truth expressed by the Russian philosopher Nicolas Berdiaev,
a contemporary of the Bolshevik Revolution (1917). “Every great revolution,” he
wrote, “claims to create a new man. Yet, creating a new man is an infinitely
more radical and challenging task than creating a new society. After a
revolution, we may see a new society take shape, but the new man remains
conspicuously absent. This is the tragedy of revolution, its fatal failure... It
is the old Adam… who drives both the revolution and the counter-revolution.”
(From Slavery and Freedom of Man, Nicolas Berdiaev, p. 253, DDB, 1990).
This is exactly why no springtime of history, as we witnessed in 2019 and as
Syria is experiencing today, should be idealized or sanctified. Such a spring is
not a natural phenomenon; it is made by human hands. Only by recognizing this
can we shield ourselves from the discouragement that comes from the
“disillusionment of the days that follow,” from setbacks, poor decisions,
stagnation... and barbarism. True progress—whether in
individuals or societies—can only be found in the cultivation of inner values,
those that unite the human community, guided by a force that comes from beyond
and above man. Particularly telling is the experience
of the Churches of the Middle East, all of which have endured persecution,
tribulation, the dagger, the rope, and the bullet. All have been expelled from
their homeland, sometimes more than once: the Armenians, the Syriacs, the
Maronites, the Chaldeans. All have suffered and, by reflex, retreated into
themselves, allowing themselves to be hardened by clericalism, careerism,
factionalism, and dogmatism—forms of tyranny in their own right.
All are now immersed in a process of renewal and transcendence of what Christian
anthropology, following Saint Paul, calls “the old man” with his “diseases.”
This fight is daily, ending only in death. Remembering
this truth is key to overcoming history’s disappointments and building the
strong state we have long aspired to. We are finally moving closer to it, “Weary
of others’ wars on our land,” as President Joseph Aoun told an Iranian
delegation, we edge closer—scarred by massacres but daring to hope “this time,
it’s allowed.” Still, we must stress: it’s a daily battle.
Armistice, Normalization, Peace: What Are the Differences?
Élie-Joe Kamel/This is Beirut/March 15/2025
Whenever an agreement—whether purely technical or otherwise—between Lebanon and
Israel is discussed, confusion arises, often followed by accusations and
excessive speculation. Many Lebanese tend to mix up and confuse the terms
"armistice," "normalization," and "peace." This makes it necessary to clarify
the differences between these three types of agreements, particularly in the
Middle Eastern context, where they play a role in any potential resolution of
the Israeli-Arab and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. An armistice is initially a
formal agreement between warring parties to cease hostilities while awaiting a
comprehensive and lasting resolution to a military conflict. It is not a
definitive peace treaty but rather a commitment by both sides to abide by the
terms of the agreement. Unlike a peace treaty, which is political in nature, an
armistice falls within the military and technical domains. It is often overseen
by a peacekeeping mission or an international commission, as was the case with
the 1953 armistice between North and South Korea, which was supervised by the
United Nations.
Normalization refers to the process by which two or more states or parties in
conflict restore normal diplomatic relations after a period of war, tension, or
severed ties. This process includes reopening embassies, establishing relations,
and cooperating in various fields such as finance, trade, culture, health,
science, and technology.
A peace agreement is a formal treaty that officially ends an armed conflict and
establishes the foundation for a long-term settlement of disputes between
warring parties. It often involves military, political, economic, and social
aspects. Peace agreements are typically the result of multilateral negotiations
and may also be overseen by international organizations such as the UN to ensure
compliance and implementation. For example, the armistice of November 11, 1918,
between France and Germany, temporarily ended hostilities in World War I and
laid the groundwork for future peace negotiations. However, the Treaty of
Versailles in 1919 officially ended World War I but resulted in a fragile peace.
Germany perceived the treaty as a humiliation, losing nearly one-sixth of its
territory, all its African colonies, and being forced to pay war reparations
alongside its allies, who were held solely responsible for the war. Furthermore,
Germany’s army was limited to 100,000 troops with no heavy equipment.
Armistice as a Step Toward Peace
"More than just a ceasefire or a temporary truce, an armistice lays the
foundation for a potential peace agreement. It seeks a change in conduct but
does not necessarily imply a change in attitude," explains Selim Sayegh, member
of the Kataeb Party and a doctor of international law. "A change in conduct
means mutual respect for commitments, whereas conflict resolution or
transformation requires a deeper and lasting change," he adds. Referring to the
1949 armistice between Israel and Arab states, including Lebanon, Sayegh notes,
"There was no recognition of the Israeli state nor a resumption of diplomatic
relations. However, a mechanism was established to ensure compliance with the
agreement. This included measures such as restoring communication channels
between the two sides and setting up an early warning system for border
incidents."
Normalization as a Political Concept
Sayegh emphasizes that normalization is a political concept, which entails "a
real entry into peaceful relations as outlined in international agreements.
Every state recognized by the UN has the right to establish peaceful relations
with others." He further explains that normalization is primarily used in the
Middle East in reference to relations with Israel, indicating that a state of
non-belligerence has not yet reached the level of full peaceful relations.
"Neither the 1949 armistice nor the Abraham Accords (signed in August 2020
between Israel and the UAE, as well as Bahrain) can be considered peace
agreements," Sayegh argues. "Normalization is an intermediate stage between
non-belligerence and peaceful relations," he clarifies. "It should be defined on
a case-by-case basis, accompanying the transition from conflict toward peace."
Peace Agreements Require Justice
In the Middle East context, Sayegh believes that a true peace agreement requires
"a roadmap and a political decision based on fundamental principles, primarily a
sense of justice and fairness regarding the parties involved in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict." This, he argues, requires a profound shift in how
governments interact with one another. "In exerting maximum pressure on Gaza and
Lebanon, Israel is dangerously conflating a just cause—the Palestinian
cause—with an unjust one. The latter is characterized by the use of terrorism
and extremism, driven by a certain apocalyptic religious ideology regarding
conflict resolution in the region," Sayegh states. He was referring to Hamas and
Hezbollah, both backed by Iran. "By doing so," he continues, "Israel is pushing
its adversaries toward extremism rather than bringing them toward moderation. In
such a scenario, power dynamics take precedence over values, but peace cannot be
achieved through power struggles."
Legitimacy Is Key
Sayegh stresses that "for a genuine peace to be built, the agreement must be
seen as legitimate by both parties. Without legitimacy, an agreement cannot be
sustainable." He points out numerous historical examples of this challenge. One
such example is the Oslo Accords, signed in 1993 between Israeli Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin and Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasser
Arafat, under the sponsorship of US President Bill Clinton. The agreement ended
armed conflicts between the two parties, with Israel recognizing the PLO as the
representative of the Palestinian people, while the PLO renounced terrorism and
recognized Israel’s right to exist. The two sides agreed to establish a
Palestinian Authority, which would govern parts of the West Bank and Gaza for a
five-year interim period. However, two years later, Rabin was assassinated by an
Israeli ultranationalist terrorist, which severely undermined the peace process.
In 2007, Hamas violently seized control of Gaza, sidelining the Palestinian
Authority. The consequences of these events continue to shape the conflict
today.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 15-16/2025
Trump orders strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and issues new
warning
MICHELLE L. PRICE, SAMY MAGDY and LOLITA C. BALDOR/March
15, 2025
President Donald Trump said he ordered a series of airstrikes on Yemen's
capital, Sanaa, on Saturday, promising to use “overwhelming lethal force” until
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels cease their attacks on shipping along a vital
maritime corridor. The Houthis said nine civilians were killed. “Our brave
Warfighters are right now carrying out aerial attacks on the terrorists’ bases,
leaders, and missile defenses to protect American shipping, air, and naval
assets, and to restore Navigational Freedom,” Trump said in a social media post.
“No terrorist force will stop American commercial and naval vessels from freely
sailing the Waterways of the World.”He also warned Iran to stop supporting the
rebel group, promising to hold the country “fully accountable” for the actions
of its proxy. It comes two weeks after the U.S leader sent a letter to Iranian
leaders offering a path to restarting bilateral talks between the countries on
Iran’s advancing nuclear weapons program. Trump has said he will not allow it to
become operational. The Houthis reported explosions in their territory Saturday
evening, in Sanaa and in the northern province of Saada, the rebels’ stronghold
on the border with Saudi Arabia. Images online showed plumes of black smoke over
the area of the Sanaa airport complex, which includes a sprawling military
facility. At least nine people were killed, said Anees al-Asbahi, spokesman for
the Houthi-run health ministry. In a statement on social media, he said another
nine were wounded. Nasruddin Amer, deputy head of the Houthi media office, said
the airstrikes won’t deter them and they would retaliate against the U.S. “Sanaa
will remain Gaza’s shield and support and will not abandon it no matter the
challenges,” he added on social media. Another spokesman, Mohamed Abdulsalam, on
X called Trump’s claims that the Houthis threaten international shipping routes
“false and misleading.”he airstrikes come a few days after the Houthis said they
would resume attacks on Israeli vessels sailing off Yemen in response to
Israel’s latest blockade on Gaza. They described the warning as affecting the
Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Arabian Sea. There
have been no Houthi attacks reported since then.
Earlier this month, Israel halted all aid coming into Gaza and warned of
“additional consequences” for Hamas if their fragile ceasefire in the war isn’t
extended as negotiations continue over starting a second phase. The Houthis had
targeted over 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two vessels
and killing four sailors, during their campaign targeting military and civilian
ships between the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in late 2023 and
January of this year, when this ceasefire in Gaza took effect. The attacks
raised the Houthis’ profile as they faced economic and other problems at home
amid Yemen’s decade-long stalemated war that’s torn apart the Arab world’s
poorest nation. The Houthi media office said the U.S. strikes hit a residential
neighborhood in Sanaa’s northern district of Shouab. Residents said at least
four airstrikes rocked the Eastern Geraf neighborhood there, terrifying women
and children. “The explosions were very strong,” said Abdallah al-Alffi. “It was
like an earthquake.”The Eastern Geraf is home to Houthi-held military facilities
and a headquarters for the rebels' political bureau, located in a densely
populated area. The United States, Israel and Britain have previously hit Houthi-held
areas in Yemen. Israel’s military declined to comment. But Saturday's operation
was conducted solely by the U.S., according to a U.S. official. It was the first
strike on the Yemen-based Houthis under the second Trump administration. Such
broad-based missile strikes against the Houthis were carried out multiple times
by the Biden administration in response to frequent attacks by the Houthis
against commercial and military vessels in the region. The USS Harry S. Truman
carrier strike group, which includes the carrier, three Navy destroyers and one
cruiser, are in the Red Sea and were part of Saturday's mission. The USS Georgia
cruise missile submarine has also been operating in the region. Trump announced
the strikes as he spent the day at his Trump International Golf Club in West
Palm Beach, Florida. “These relentless assaults have cost the U.S. and World
Economy many BILLIONS of Dollars while, at the same time, putting innocent lives
at risk,” Trump said.
Rubio: Trump sent a strong
and clear message to the Iranian-backed Houthis
Washington: Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15, 2025
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that attacks on US ships and
global shipping must stop, following the US military's launch of a military
operation against the Houthis in Yemen.
US President Donald Trump announced today that he had ordered his country's
military to launch a decisive and forceful military operation against the
Houthis, noting that the Yemeni group "practices piracy, violence, and terrorism
against ships and aircraft."
Rubio wrote on the X platform: "The US president sent a strong and clear message
to the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen. These attacks on US ships and
global shipping must stop, and we will hold you accountable. We will protect our
people and freedom of navigation." Earlier today, Houthi-affiliated media
reported that nine civilians were killed and nine others wounded in the initial
toll of the airstrikes that targeted a residential neighborhood in Sanaa.
Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, said that US
involvement in the aggression against Yemen is "unjustified" and that the
Houthis will respond to escalation with escalation.
Trump demands that Iran "immediately" end its support for
the Houthis/US President warns of "hell" if attacks on ships do not stop
Washington: Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15, 2025
US President Donald Trump demanded that Iran "immediately" end its support for "Houthi
terrorists" in Yemen, after the US president announced "decisive" strikes
against them. Trump wrote on his social media platform, "Truth Social," that
"support for Houthi terrorists must stop immediately. Do not threaten the
American people, our President... and global maritime shipping lanes. If you do,
beware, because America will hold you fully responsible, and we will not give
you gifts." Trump said on Saturday that he had ordered the military to launch
strikes against the Houthi group in Yemen in response to the group's attacks on
ships in the Red Sea, warning them of the consequences of not stopping their
attacks. "If you don't, you will witness a hell like you've never seen before,"
he added. The Yemeni capital, Sanaa, was hit by airstrikes, Houthi-run
television reported, following the US president's statement. Al-Masirah TV said
that "an American-British aggression with raids targeted a residential
neighborhood in the Shu'ub district, north of the capital, Sanaa." A spokesman
for the Houthi-run health ministry in Yemen said that at least nine civilians
were killed and nine others wounded in the strikes on Sanaa.
Iraqi Prime Minister
Announces Death of ISIS's 'External Operations' Official
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15, 2025
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced yesterday (Friday) that
Iraqi security forces had killed a senior ISIS leader, particularly responsible
for "external operations."Despite Iraq's declaration of the group's defeat on
its territory in 2017, its cells remained active and carried out sporadic
attacks against the Iraqi army and police. Al-Sudani said via the X platform
that "the terrorist Abdullah Makki Musleh al-Rifai, nicknamed Abu Khadija, is
one of the most dangerous terrorists in Iraq and the world."He added that al-Rifai,
who was targeted by US sanctions in the summer of 2023, "served as the so-called
governor of Iraq and Syria" in the extremist group. Al-Sudani did not mention
when al-Rifai was killed, but praised the operation carried out by Iraqi
intelligence in cooperation with the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq. For its
part, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement on the X platform, "On
March 13, US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces, in conjunction with Iraqi
intelligence and security forces, conducted a precision airstrike in Anbar
Province, Iraq, killing ISIS's second-in-command, operations commander, and emir
of the Delegated Committee, Abdullah Makki Musleh al-Rifai, known as Abu Khadija,
as well as an ISIS operative." CENTCOM added, "As emir of the Delegated
Committee, which is considered the highest decision-making body within ISIS, Abu
Khadija was responsible for ISIS's international operations, logistics, and
planning, and managed a significant portion of ISIS's financing worldwide." The
statement continued, "Following the airstrike, US Central Command and Iraqi
forces moved to the targeted site, where the bodies of two ISIS operatives were
found." Both terrorists were wearing unexploded suicide vests and possessed
several weapons. Forces were able to identify Abu Khadija through DNA from a
previous raid he had survived. “Abu Khadija was one of ISIS’s most important
global leaders,” said General Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central
Command. “We will continue to eliminate terrorists and dismantle organizations
that threaten our homeland, our U.S. service members, allies, and partners in
the region and beyond.” U.S. President Donald Trump, for his part, said on his
Truth Social platform: “Today, the fugitive leader of ISIS-Iraq was killed. Our
brave fighters relentlessly pursued him. His miserable life, along with another
ISIS member, was ended in coordination with the Iraqi government and the
Kurdistan Regional Government.”
Rouhani: Iran's situation
is dangerous... and Khamenei's position may change. He said his country is
losing $100 billion annually.
London (Asharq Al-Awsat)/March 15, 2025
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani counted his country's financial losses
from the failure to implement the nuclear agreement. While describing the
situation in his country as "dangerous," he suggested that Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei would likely change his position on negotiations with Washington
"influenced by the circumstances." During a meeting with former ministers,
Rouhani said, "The Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) does not oppose negotiations
over the nuclear program, influenced by the current circumstances, but in a few
months he may agree under different conditions." The former Iranian president
added, "Didn't we negotiate with America over Iraq and Afghanistan? The Supreme
Leader was also a witness and observer."
Iran's "Major" Losses
Rouhani described the sanctions as a major problem for the Iranian economy,
saying, "We have been losing at least $100 billion annually since the United
States withdrew from the nuclear agreement." Rouhani described the situation in
the country as "dangerous," especially with "the weakness of military
deterrence, which has deepened after internal disputes prevented the purchase of
advanced defense systems." The former president criticized "the chaos of Iran's
decision-making system in various fields," saying, "Anyone looking from the
outside understands what is happening in this country and sees that we appear to
have no plan at all." Rouhani said that solving Iran's economic problems is
impossible without constructive engagement with the world, according to a video
clip published by the former president's website. The video featured Mohammad
Javad Zarif, who recently resigned from his position as Vice President, Masoud
Pezeshkian, due to pressure from the conservative faction in the Iranian
parliament. Zarif had previously said that he had negotiated with the US side
regarding Iraq in coordination with Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of
the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pezeshkian is under
pressure from his reformist and moderate allies—led by reformist former
President Mohammad Khatami and the relative moderate Hassan Rouhani—to push for
negotiations with the United States. On February 7, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
said that talks with the United States were “not prudent, wise, or honorable,”
remarks interpreted in Iranian politics as an order to ban any direct talks with
Trump. Khatami called for negotiations, but said that “negotiations and dialogue
do not mean surrendering to the enemy’s blackmail and power.” Rouhani said,
“Some claim that the Supreme Leader is opposed to negotiations.” Khatami added,
“The Supreme Leader is not opposed to the principle of negotiations, but
according to the circumstances, he may oppose today, but in a few months, with
changing circumstances, he may agree. There is no absolute opposition.”
“Negotiations are pointless.” The head of the Iranian parliament’s National
Security Committee ruled out “any point in negotiations unless they serve Iran’s
interests.” Iranian Al-Alam TV quoted the committee’s head, Ebrahim Azizi, as
saying on Saturday that “Tehran does not reject the principle of dialogue and
negotiation,” adding that “Iran must avoid any steps that are not beneficial to
itself.” For his part, Ali Larijani, a member of the Expediency Discernment
Council, emphasized that American officials face two choices: "to deal with
respect based on shared economic interests, or to fall into the trap of
believing that confrontation with Iran will be low-cost." The Tasnim news
agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, quoted Larijani as saying,
"The Iranian people base their decisions on a just approach. They love peace but
do not compromise their interests."
Russian Mediation
In Moscow, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's representative to international
organizations in Geneva, said on Saturday that he had discussed issues related
to the Iranian nuclear program with Rafael Grossi, Director General of the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Ulyanov did not provide details of the
meeting. Russia's involvement in proposing mediation to advance negotiations on
the Iranian nuclear issue represents a significant shift, reflecting the
Kremlin's belief that new relations with the Trump administration could lead to
a "comprehensive deal" on issues on the two countries' agendas. The US Mission
to the United Nations announced earlier this month that Washington is committed
to continuing to implement President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy.
In a statement regarding a Security Council meeting on Iran, the mission added,
"President Trump has made clear that Iran's nuclear program poses a threat to
international peace and security."
Israeli airstrike kills nine
people in north Gaza town, medics say, amid ceasefire disputes
Nidal al-Mughrabi/Reuters/March 15, 2025
CAIRO (Reuters) -At least nine Palestinians were killed, including two local
journalists, and others wounded on Saturday in an Israeli airstrike on Gaza's
northern Beit Lahiya town, Gaza's health ministry said, as Hamas' leaders hold
Gaza ceasefire talks with mediators in Cairo. Several were critically injured as
the strike hit a car, with casualties inside and outside the vehicle, health
officials told Reuters. Witnesses and fellow journalists said the people in the
car were on a mission for a charity called Al-Khair Foundation in Beit Lahiya,
and they were accompanied by journalists and photographers when the strike hit
them. At least three local journalists were among the dead, according to
Palestinian media. The Israeli military said in a statement that it had struck
two individuals that it identified as "terrorists" operating a drone that it
said posed a threat to forces in Beit Lahiya. The military later struck several
other suspects who it said had collected the drone equipment and entered a
vehicle. The military did not say how it had determined that the individuals it
had struck were "terrorists" or provide detail on the threat that the done had
posed to its soldiers. The incident underscores the fragility of the January 19
ceasefire agreement that halted large-scale fighting in the Gaza Strip.
Palestinian health officials say dozens of people have been killed by Israeli
fire despite the truce. Commenting on the latest deaths, the Islamist Hamas
group accused Israel in a statement of attempting to renege on the ceasefire
agreement, putting the number of Palestinians killed since January 19 at 150. It
urged mediators to compel Israel to move ahead with the implementation of the
phased ceasefire deal, blaming Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for
the current impasse.
Responding to some of the incidents reported by Gaza medics, the Israeli
military says its forces have intervened to thwart threats by "terrorists"
approaching its forces or planting bombs on the ground near where forces
operate. Since a temporary first phase of the ceasefire expired on March 2,
Israel has rejected opening the second phase of talks, which would require it to
negotiate over a permanent end to the war, the main demand of Palestinian
militant group Hamas. The incident coincided with a visit by Hamas' exiled Gaza
chief, Khalil Al-Hayya, to Cairo for further ceasefire talks aimed at resolving
disputes with Israel that could risk a resumption of fighting in the enclave. On
Friday, Hamas said it had agreed to free an American-Israeli dual national if
Israel begins the next phase of ceasefire talks towards a permanent end to the
war, an offer Israel dismissed as "psychological warfare."
Hamas said it had made the offer to release New Jersey native Edan Alexander, a
21-year-old soldier in the Israeli army, after receiving a proposal from
mediators for negotiations on the second phase of a ceasefire deal. Israel says
it wants to extend the ceasefire's temporary first phase, a proposal backed by
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. Hamas says it will resume freeing hostages only under
the second phase. The war began when Hamas carried out a cross-border raid into
southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing 251
hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's subsequent assault on Gaza has
killed more than 48,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, and
reduced much of the territory to rubble and led to accusations of genocide and
war crimes that Israel denies.
Hamas Says it Will Only Release
American-Israeli Hostage if Truce Agreement Implemented
Asharq Al Awsat/March 15/2025
Hamas said Saturday it would only release an American-Israeli and the bodies of
four other hostages if Israel implements the existing ceasefire agreement in the
Gaza Strip, calling it an “exceptional deal” aimed at getting the truce back on
track. According to The Associated Press, a senior Hamas official said
long-delayed talks over the ceasefire's second phase would need to begin the day
of the release and last no longer than 50 days. Israel would also need to stop
barring the entry of humanitarian aid and withdraw from a strategic corridor
along Gaza's border with Egypt. Hamas would also demand the release of more
Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages, said the official, who spoke on
condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks.Edan Alexander, 21, who
grew up in Tenafly, New Jersey, was abducted from his military base during
Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack that ignited the war, and is the last living
American citizen held in Gaza. There was no immediate comment from Israel, where
government offices were closed for the weekly Sabbath. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on Friday accused Hamas of “manipulation and
psychological warfare” when the offer was initially made, before Hamas spelled
out the conditions. The United States said it presented on Wednesday a proposal
to extend the ceasefire a few more weeks as the sides negotiate a permanent
truce. It said Hamas was claiming flexibility in public while privately making
“entirely impractical” demands. Negotiations continued in Egypt after senior
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya arrived in Cairo on Friday. Egypt and Qatar served
as key mediators with Hamas in reaching the ceasefire and have continued to host
talks aimed at getting it back on track. There was no immediate comment from the
mediators. Under the ceasefire agreement reached in January, Israel and Hamas
were to begin negotiations over a second phase — in which Hamas would release
all the remaining hostages in exchange for a lasting truce — in early February,
but so far only preparatory talks have been held. After the first phase ended at
the beginning of this month, Israel said it had agreed to a new US proposal in
which Hamas would release half the remaining hostages in return for a vague
commitment to negotiate a lasting ceasefire. Hamas rejected that offer, accusing
Israel of backtracking on the signed agreement and trying to sabotage the truce.
Israel has barred the delivery of food, fuel and other supplies to Gaza's
roughly 2 million Palestinians, and cut electricity to the territory, to
pressure Hamas to accept the new proposal. The first phase of the truce, which
took hold on Jan. 19, saw the release of 25 Israeli hostages and the bodies of
eight more in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces
pulled back to a buffer zone along Gaza's border and allowed a surge of
humanitarian aid. An Israeli official said last month that Israel will not
withdraw from the so-called Philadelphi corridor, along the Gaza-Egypt border,
as called for in the ceasefire agreement. They have cited the need to combat
weapons smuggling.
G7 Urges Iran to Resume
Diplomacy over Nuclear Program
London: Asharq Al Awsat/March 15/2025
Foreign ministers of leading Western democracies warned on Thursday of the
threat from Iran's growing use of arbitrary detention and foreign assassination
attempts as a tool of coercion, a final draft statement seen by Reuters showed.
The G7 nations, comprising Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and
the United States, said in a statement that Tehran was a principle source of
instability in the Middle East and urged it to resume diplomacy over its nuclear
program. Representatives of China, Russia and Iran called Friday for an end to
US sanctions on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program and a restart to
multinational talks on the issue.
The three countries' meeting was the latest attempt to broach the matter and
come after US President Donald Trump wrote to Iran’s supreme leader in an
attempt to jumpstart talks. The letter, which hasn’t been published, was offered
as Trump levied new sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign
that holds out the possibility of military action while emphasizing he still
believed a new deal could be reached.
US Declares South Africa's Ambassador Persona Non Grata
Asharq Al Awsat/March 15/2025
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday declared Ebrahim Rasool, South
Africa's ambassador to the US, persona non grata, calling the envoy a
"race-baiting politician" who hates America and President Donald Trump.
"South Africa's Ambassador to the United States is no longer welcome in our
great country," Rubio said in a post on social media platform X. "We have
nothing to discuss with him and so he is considered PERSONA NON GRATA," Rubio
said. Rasool presented his credentials to then-President Joe Biden on January
13, a week before Trump took office, marking the start of the envoy's tenure,
according to the South African embassy's website. It said this was Rasool's
second stint in Washington. The US State Department and South Africa's embassy
in Washington did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Chrispin Phiri, spokesperson for South Africa's Department of International
Relations and Cooperation, posted on X that the government "will engage through
the diplomatic channel."Ties between the United States and South Africa have
deteriorated since Trump cut US financial aid to the country, citing disapproval
of its land policy and of its genocide case at the International Court of
Justice against Washington's ally Israel. Trump has said, without citing
evidence, that "South Africa is confiscating land" and that "certain classes of
people" are being treated "very badly."South African-born billionaire Elon Musk,
who is close to Trump, has said white South Africans have been the victims of
"racist ownership laws." South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed into law
a bill in January aimed at making it easier for the state to expropriate land in
the public interest, in some cases without compensating the owner.
Ramaphosa has defended the policy and said the government had not confiscated
any land. The policy was aimed at evening out racial disparities in land
ownership in the Black-majority nation, he said.
Trump drafts three-tier U.S. travel ban which now targets 43
countries: report
Kelly Rissman/The Independent/March 15, 2025
President Donald Trump appears to have expanded the scope of the travel ban from
his first term to include 43 countries, according to a report. Although Trump
failed to reintroduce the “travel ban” on “day one” of his second term, as he
promised, he did issue an executive order on January 20 directing cabinet
members to draft a list of countries that should face full or partial travel
restrictions because their "vetting and screening information is so deficient"
within 60 days. Now, with that deadline approaching, a draft list of proposed
countries banned from traveling to the U.S. is circulating, the New York Times
reported. A White House official told The Independent no decision has been made.
It was developed by the State Department weeks ago, officials familiar with the
matter told the outlet, who cautioned it will likely undergo changes by the time
the White House gets ahold of it. The Independent has reached out to the State
Department for comment. The draft list was separated into three sections — red,
orange, and yellow — to denote the level of restriction, according to the
outlet.
The “red” list includes 11 countries whose citizens would be entirely forbidden
from entering the United States: Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cuba, Iran, Libya, North
Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen. Ten countries whose citizens
will be limited from entering but not entirely banned, meaning they are required
to have specific visas, were on the “orange” list. People of Belarus, Eritrea,
Haiti, Laos, Myanmar, Pakistan, Russia, Sierra Leone, South Sudan and
Turkmenistan will have to sit for in-person interviews to obtain a visa, the
outlet reported. The “yellow” list contains 22 countries, mostly African
nations, that the Trump administration is giving 60 days to address its concerns
over alleged “deficiencies.” If these nations don’t comply, they risk being
placed on the red or orange lists, the Times reported. This list includes
Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape
Verde, Chad, the Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Dominica,
Equatorial Guinea, Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, St. Kitts and
Nevis, St. Lucia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Vanuatu and Zimbabwe. Trump signed an
executive order on January 20 directing cabinet members to draft a list of
countries that should face full or partial travel restrictions because their
Security specialists and embassy officials at State Department regional bureaus
are reviewing the proposal and providing comments as to the accuracy of the
so-called deficiencies or whether there are “policy reasons” to avoid certain
categorizations, the outlet reported. In his January 20 executive order, Trump
said the travel ban would “protect its citizens from aliens who intend to commit
terrorist attacks, threaten our national security, espouse hateful ideology, or
otherwise exploit the immigration laws for malevolent purposes.”On former
President Joe Biden’s first day in office in 2021, he issued a proclamation to
terminate Trump’s travel bans. He said Trump’s bans were “a stain on our
national conscience and [were] inconsistent with our long history of welcoming
people of all faiths and no faith at all.”
Trump administration weighs travel ban on
dozens of countries, memo says
Ynetnews/March 15/2025
Citizens of 10 countries, including Syria and Iran, are to be flat-out banned,
while five others to face partial suspension with impact on tourism and student
visas, while for 26 countries, suspension depends on their government actions
The Trump administration is considering issuing sweeping travel restrictions for
the citizens of dozens of countries as part of a new ban, according to sources
familiar with the matter and an internal memo seen by Reuters. The memo lists a
total of 41 countries divided into three separate groups. The first group of 10
countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Cuba and North Korea, among
others, would be set for a full visa suspension. In the second group, five
countries - Eritrea, Haiti, Laos, Myanmar and South Sudan - would face partial
suspensions that would impact tourist and student visas as well as other
immigrant visas, with some exceptions. In the third group, a total of 26
countries that include Belarus, Pakistan and Turkmenistan among others would be
considered for a partial suspension of U.S. visa issuance if their governments
"do not make efforts to address deficiencies within 60 days", the memo said. A
U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity cautioned there could be
changes on the list and that it was yet to be approved by the administration,
including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The New York Times first reported
on the list of countries. The move harkens back to President Donald Trump's
first-term ban on travelers from seven majority-Muslim nations, a policy that
went through several iterations before it was upheld by the Supreme Court in
2018. Trump issued an executive order on January 20 requiring intensified
security vetting of any foreigners seeking admission to the U.S. to detect
national security threats. That order directed several cabinet members to submit
by March 21 a list of countries from which travel should be partly or fully
suspended because their "vetting and screening information is so deficient."
Trump's directive is part of an immigration crackdown that he launched at the
start of his second term. He previewed his plan in an October 2023 speech,
pledging to restrict people from the Gaza Strip, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen
and "anywhere else that threatens our security."The State Department did not
immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters.
Report: Netanyahu Presses Trump to Allow Joint Operation Against Iran
Washington: Asharq Al-Awsat/March
15/2025
The New York Times reported on Saturday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu is pressing US President Donald Trump to allow a joint US-Israeli
operation to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. The newspaper stated that
Netanyahu wants to "take advantage of the fact that Iran's air defenses are
exposed after an Israeli bombing campaign in October that dismantled vital
Iranian military infrastructure."The newspaper added that Trump "is reluctant to
be drawn into a major war and is resisting pressure from hawks in both Israel
and the United States to seize the opportunity to strike Iranian nuclear sites."
Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked US
President Donald Trump for providing munitions that the previous administration
had frozen to the Jewish state, asserting that they would help it "finish the
job" against Iran and its allies. Netanyahu said in a video message, "Trump is
the greatest friend Israel has had in the White House." He added, "He
demonstrated this by sending all the munitions that had previously been
suspended (by his predecessor Joe Biden's administration)," stressing that "in
this way, he is giving Israel the means it needs to complete the mission against
the Iranian axis of terror."
Syria: Kurdish Autonomous Administration Demands Constitution to
Be the Core of a Free and Democratic State
Damascus: Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15/2025
The Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria called on all
Syrians and national forces on Saturday to unite and join forces to draft a
Syrian constitution that "expresses all our aspirations and serves as the core
of a free and democratic Syria." In a statement, the administration affirmed its
continued struggle to build a "decentralized, pluralistic, democratic Syria for
all Syrians." The Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria had
criticized the "Constitutional Declaration," issued last Thursday, saying it
lacked standards for national diversity and the effective participation of
Syria's various components. Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa signed the draft
Constitutional Declaration on Thursday, setting a five-year transitional period
in the country, praising what he described as a "new history" for the country.
The four-chapter declaration stipulated the "absolute separation" of powers, in
a country where the presidency had previously held limited powers. He affirmed a
number of fundamental rights and freedoms in the country, including freedom of
opinion and expression and women's right to participate.
Syrian Civil Defense: 10 killed in explosion of "war remnants" in
Latakia
Damascus: Asharq Al-Awsat/March 15/2025
The Syrian Civil Defense announced on Saturday that the death toll from the
explosion of war remnants in the Al-Raml neighborhood of Latakia city had risen
to 10 civilians, including three women and two girls, and 14 others were
injured. The Civil Defense confirmed on the X platform that the death toll is
not final, and that its teams are continuing search and rescue operations and
extracting those trapped under the rubble of destroyed buildings. The official
Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported earlier today that a "violent explosion"
rocked "the southern Al-Raml neighborhood of Latakia city, and the causes are
still unknown," noting that it occurred in a "four-story building." Citing the
Latakia Governorate, it then reported that the explosion "has so far left three
dead and 12 injured," adding: "Civil Defense teams and residents are still
searching for the injured and missing." Ward Jamoul, a 32-year-old resident of
the neighborhood, told Agence France-Presse that she heard a "loud explosion."
She added, "We headed to the site and saw a completely destroyed building
surrounded by civil defense personnel, ambulances, and a large number of people
who had gathered to check on those trapped under the rubble." A photo published
by SANA showed a cloud of white smoke rising from the site.
US Designated South Korea a 'Sensitive'
Country amid Nuclear Concerns
Asharq Al Awsat/March 15/2025
The US Department of Energy has designated ally South Korea a "sensitive"
country, a spokesperson said on Friday, after the South Korean president briefly
imposed martial law and amid talk of Seoul potentially developing nuclear
weapons. The administration of then-President Joe Biden put South Korea on the
lowest tier of the Sensitive and Other Designated Countries List in January
shortly before Biden left office, the DOE said in a written response to Reuters
queries. The department did not explain why the Asian nation was added to the
list and did not indicate that President Donald Trump was inclined to reverse
the measure. The spokesperson said Seoul faces no new restrictions on bilateral
cooperation in science and technology. The designation will go into effect on
April 15, media reports said, according to Reuters. South Korea's foreign
ministry said the government was taking the matter seriously and in close
communication with Washington. "We will actively negotiate to ensure that there
is no negative impact on energy, science and technology cooperation between
South Korea and the United States," the ministry said in a statement.The DOE
list of sensitive countries includes China, Taiwan, Israel, Russia, Iran and
North Korea, with Tehran and Pyongyang designated as "terrorist", according to a
2017 document posted on the department's website. President Yoon Suk Yeol and
then-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun are among officials who raised the prospect
that Seoul would be forced to pursue nuclear weapons amid fears over Pyongyang's
weapons program and concerns about the US alliance. Yoon and Kim have been
indicted on charges of insurrection over Yoon's six-hour declaration of martial
law in December. Yoon was impeached and his presidential powers suspended while
a court decides whether to remove him from office. Yoon backed off rhetoric
about a nuclear weapons program after negotiating with Biden a 2023 agreement
under which Washington is to give Seoul more insight into US planning to deter
and respond to a nuclear incident in the region. In return, Seoul renewed a
pledge not to pursue a nuclear bomb of its own and said it would abide by the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which it has signed.
That, however, has not been enough to ease doubts over US defense commitments
that have fueled calls for a South Korean nuclear arsenal. Foreign Minister Cho
Tae-yul said last month that nuclear weapons were not "off the table", though it
was premature to talk about such a plan. "Given that international situations
are developing in unpredictable directions, this is a principled response that
we must prepare for all possible scenarios," Cho told a parliamentary hearing.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the nonprofit Arms Control Association,
said that in light of such "provocative" statements, South Korea is a
proliferation risk and the DOE was prudent to put the country on its list.
"Listing the ROK as a proliferation-sensitive country should rule out any chance
of a South Korean request for US approval to enrich uranium and reprocessing
spent fuel... to produce nuclear weapons," Kimball said, citing the country's
formal name, the Republic of Korea. The handling of the designation raised
concerns in Seoul. Cho told parliament on Tuesday that his ministry had had no
formal communication from the Biden administration and only heard about the
possible designation from an informal tip-off. Countries may appear on the
Energy Department's list for reasons of national security, nuclear
nonproliferation or support for terrorism, though inclusion does not necessarily
indicate an adversarial relationship with the United States. "Currently there
are no new restrictions on bilateral science and technology cooperation with the
ROK," the DOE said. "The Energy Department looks forward to collaborating with
the ROK to advance our mutual interests." Though the designation does not
prohibit scientific or technical cooperation, visits to the listed countries and
cooperation undergo an internal review beforehand, the department said.
'Stateless overnight': Authoritarian crackdown strips 42,000
Kuwaitis of nationality
Bahar MAKOOI/France 24/March 15, 2025
Nearly 42,000 Kuwaitis have been stripped of their nationality in just six
months and in defiance of international law. Launched under the increasingly
authoritarian rule of Kuwait's new monarch, Emir Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber
Al-Sabah, the policy claims to target foreigners who illegally obtained Kuwaiti
citizenship – but naturalised citizens and political opponents are getting
caught up in the campaign. Kuwait has taken a distinctly more authoritarian
direction since the accession of the new monarch, 84-year-old Emir Mishal
Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, in December 2023.
Asserting that he would not allow democracy “to be exploited to destroy the
state”, the emir suspended parliament on May 10 of last year and announced a
revision of the constitution with the aim of ending political gridlock, which he
claims has paralysed Kuwait for decades.
Several people who criticised this initiative were arrested, and members of
parliament were prosecuted in a wave of repression denounced by Amnesty
International. The enactment in December of a legislative amendment authorising
forfeiture of citizenship for “‘moral turpitude or dishonesty, or for actions
aimed at threatening state security, including criticism of the emir or
religious figures”, has broadened the scope for the revocation of citizenship.
Russia and Ukraine launch aerial attacks amid proposed ceasefire
talks
Associated Press/March 15, 2025
Russia and Ukraine traded heavy aerial blows overnight Saturday, with both sides
reporting more than 100 enemy drones over their respective territories. The
attack comes less than 24 hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss details of the American proposal for a
30-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine, Volgograd regional Gov. Andrei
Bocharov confirmed that falling drone debris had sparked a fire in the
Krasnoarmeysky district of the city close to a Lukoil oil refinery, but provided
no further details. Nearby airports temporarily halted flights, local media
outlets reported. No casualties were reported. The Volgograd refinery has been
targeted by Kyiv's forces on several occasions since Moscow launched its
full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, most recently in a
drone attack on Feb. 15. Russia's Defense Ministry said that it had shot down
126 Ukrainian drones, 64 of which were destroyed over the Volgograd region.
Drones were also shot down over the Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk, Rostov and
Kursk regions, officials said. Meanwhile, Ukraine's air force said Saturday that
Russia had launched a barrage of 178 drones and two ballistic missiles over the
country overnight. The barrage was a mixture of Shahed-type attack drones and
imitation drones designed to confuse air defenses. Some 130 drones were shot
down, while 38 more were lost en route to their targets. Russia attacked energy
facilities, causing significant damage, said Ukraine's private energy company
DTEK. Russia struck energy infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa
regions, DTEK said in a statement on Saturday. Some residents were left without
electricity. "The damage is significant. Energy workers are already working on
the ground. We are doing everything possible to restore power to homes as soon
as possible," the energy firm said.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on March 15-16/2025
Iran's Mullahs Can Never Change, Never Be 'Friends'
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/March 15, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/03/141251/
The Islamic Republic of Iran is not a normal state, or even a conventional
dictatorship. It is an ideological entity that derives its very identity from
opposition to the United States, Israel and the West.
From the moment the Islamic Republic was born out of the 1979 revolution, its
core identity was forged in opposition to the United States and Israel. These
were not just foreign policy stances but central tenets of the regime's
existence. The regime refers to the United States as the "Great Satan" and
Israel as the "Little Satan," righteously positioning itself as the force of
divine justice against these supposed embodiments of evil.
For the Iranian mullahs, hostility toward America and Israel is not just
rhetoric; it is the fundamental pillar of their legitimacy. If the regime were
to abandon its enmity toward the U.S. and Israel, it would lose the entire
justification upon which it has built its power.
Every negotiation with Iran has followed the same pattern: the Iranian regime
makes promises, secures financial and political gains, and then, once it has
strengthened its position, resumes its belligerent actions.
The Islamic Republic views nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantor of its
survival... Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has explicitly stated that
Gaddafi's fate proves why Iran should never surrender its nuclear weapons.
As with North Korea, negotiations may temporarily slow Iran's nuclear weapons
development; they can never stop it. The regime will agree to talks only when it
needs to buy time — whether to rebuild its economy under the cover of diplomacy,
to lull the West into complacency, or to wait out an unfavorable political
climate, such as a Trump. Always, the regime's goal remains the same: acquiring
nuclear weapons to solidify its regional dominance and deter any attempt to
remove the regime from power.
Regrettably, the only way to neutralize the Iranian threat is through strength.
The regime in Tehran understands only force. Until the West recognizes this
reality, it will continue to be bamboozled while the Iranian regime buys time to
advance its ambitions unchecked.
Like it or not, the nature of the Iranian regime is inseparable from its
ideological foundations. The Islamic Republic of Iran is not a normal state, or
even a conventional dictatorship. It is an ideological entity that derives its
very identity from opposition to the United States, Israel and the West.
For more than four decades, many Western politicians have entertained the hope
that negotiations with the Islamist regime in Iran might lead to a change in its
behavior and attitude toward the West. Time and again, diplomatic overtures,
economic incentives and concessions have been extended to Tehran in the hope
that engagement could moderate its policies. Yet, every attempt at diplomacy has
failed. Unfortunately, it will continue to fail. Like it or not, the nature of
the Iranian regime is inseparable from its ideological foundations. The Islamic
Republic of Iran is not a normal state, or even a conventional dictatorship. It
is an ideological entity that derives its very identity from opposition to the
United States, Israel and the West.
From the moment the Islamic Republic was born out of the 1979 revolution, its
core identity was forged in opposition to the United States and Israel. These
were not just foreign policy stances but central tenets of the regime's
existence. The regime refers to the United States as the "Great Satan" and
Israel as the "Little Satan," righteously positioning itself as the force of
divine justice against these supposed embodiments of evil.
For the Iranian mullahs, hostility toward America and Israel is not just
rhetoric; it is the fundamental pillar of their legitimacy. If the regime were
to abandon its enmity toward the U.S. and Israel, it would lose the entire
justification upon which it has built its power.
Unlike pragmatic autocracies that engage in hostilities for strategic reasons
but can shift course if necessary, the Iranian regime views opposition to the
West as a religious duty. To befriend America or Israel would be to betray its
revolutionary Islamist roots, the very reason, in their eyes, for their
existence -- something it cannot afford to do without collapsing from within,
any more than the US could abandon the principles of individual liberty, equal
justice under the law or freedom of speech.
Despite this solid reality, successive Western governments have repeatedly tried
to engage with Iran, probably in the belief that economic or diplomatic
incentives could alter its behavior. The Obama administration's approach was a
prime example. In pursuit of a "nuclear deal," Washington lifted sanctions,
provided billions of dollars in sanctions relief, and even delivered pallets of
cash to the ruling mullahs. The result? The Iranian regime did not just fail to
moderate its behavior. On the contrary, it escalated its hostility, using the
funds it received from the US to do it. "Death to America" and "Death to Israel"
chants grew louder, Tehran funneled more money into terrorist proxies such as
Hezbollah and Hamas, enriched uranium faster than ever, and unleashed its
aggression across the Middle East.
Rather than using the financial windfall from the nuclear deal to improve the
lives of ordinary Iranians, the regime used it to consolidate its Islamist
system, expand its military reach, and accelerate its nuclear weapons ambitions.
Every negotiation with Iran has followed the same pattern: the Iranian regime
makes promises, secures financial and political gains, and then, once it has
strengthened its position, resumes its belligerent actions.
One of the greatest illusions in Western diplomacy is the belief that Iran can
be persuaded to abandon its nuclear program through negotiations. The Islamic
Republic views nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantor of its survival. The
regime has learned from history. It saw what happened to Libya's Muammar Gaddafi
— who agreed to dismantle his nuclear program, only to be overthrown and killed.
Iran's "Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has explicitly stated that
Gaddafi's fate proves why Iran should never surrender its nuclear weapons.
As with North Korea, negotiations may temporarily slow Iran's nuclear weapons
development; they can never stop it. The regime will agree to talks only when it
needs to buy time — whether to rebuild its economy under the cover of diplomacy,
to lull the West into complacency, or to wait out an unfavorable political
climate, such as a Trump. Always, the regime's goal remains the same: acquiring
nuclear weapons to solidify its regional dominance and deter any attempt to
remove the regime from power.
No country understands the Iranian regime better than Israel. Unlike some
Western policymakers who continue to entertain illusions of diplomacy, Israel
knows firsthand that the Iranian regime is built on lies and deceit. Iran's
leadership has openly declared its goal of wiping Israel off the map, and Iran's
constitution explicitly states its commitment to exporting the Islamist
revolution across the world. For these reasons, Israel, probably concerned about
the cost of losing time and opportunity, opposes any negotiations with Iran.
It is time for the West to abandon the failed strategy of engaging with Iran's
regime. Diplomacy has not worked for more than four decades. Alas, it never
will. The Islamic Republic is not a rational state actor that can be coaxed into
cooperation through economic incentives or diplomatic overtures. It is an
ideological regime that sees itself as divinely mandated to oppose the West.
If the West wants to truly confront the threat posed by the Iranian regime, it
must stop pursuing fruitless negotiations and instead adopt a strategy of
strength. That means fully supporting Israel's stance on Iran, and taking
decisive measures to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Regrettably,
the only way to neutralize the Iranian threat is through strength. The regime in
Tehran understands only force. Until the West recognizes this reality, it will
continue to be bamboozled while the Iranian regime buys time to advance its
ambitions unchecked.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and
board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on
the US foreign policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
**Follow Majid Rafizadeh on X (formerly Twitter)
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21466/iran-mullahs-never-change
Turkey and Israel face mounting tensions over future of
post-Assad Syria
Associated Press/March 15/2025
Analysis: Expert says Israel was concerned about al-Sharaa and his Islamist ties
and fears that his consolidated strength could pose a 'jihadist threat' along
its northern border. The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government has
aggravated already tense relations between Turkey and Israel, with their
conflicting interests in Syria pushing the relationship toward a possible
collision course. Turkey, which long backed groups opposed to Assad, has emerged
as a key player in Syria and is advocating for a stable and united Syria in
which a central government maintains authority over the whole country.
It welcomed a breakthrough agreement that Syria’s new interim government signed
this week with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, to integrate
with the Syrian government and army. '
Israel, on the other hand, remains deeply suspicious of Syria’s interim
president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, pointing to his roots in al-Qaida. It’s also wary of
Turkey’s influence over Damascus and appears to want to see Syria remain
fragmented after the country under Assad was turned into a staging ground for
its archenemy, Iran, and Tehran’s proxies. “Syria has become a theater for proxy
warfare between Turkey and Israel, which clearly see each other as regional
competitors,” said Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings
Institute. “This is a very dangerous dynamic because in all different aspects of
Syria’s transition, there is a clash of Turkish and Israeli positions.”
Following Assad’s fall, Israel seized territory in southern Syria, which
officials said was aimed at keeping hostile groups away from its border. The new
Syrian government and the United Nations have said Israel’s incursions violate a
1974 ceasefire agreement between the two countries and have called for Israel to
withdraw. The IDF has also conducted airstrikes targeting military assets left
behind by Assad’s forces and has expressed plans to maintain a long-term
presence in the region.
Analysts say Israel is concerned over the possibility of Turkey expanding its
military presence inside Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has launched operations in
northern Syria to push back Syrian Kurdish militias linked to the banned
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and maintains influence in the north of the
country through military bases and alliances with groups that opposed Assad.
Turkish defense officials have said Turkey and Syria are now cooperating to
strengthen the country’s defense and security and that a military delegation
will visit Syria next week. Nimrod Goren, president of the Mitvim Institute, an
Israeli foreign policy think tank, said that unlike Turkey, which supports a
strong, centralized and stable Syria, Israel at the moment appears to prefer
Syria fragmented, with the belief that could better bolster Israel’s security.
He said Israel was concerned about al-Sharaa and his Islamist ties and fears
that his consolidated strength could pose what Israel has called a “jihadist
threat” along its northern border.Officials say they will not tolerate a Syrian
military presence south of Damascus and have threatened to invade a Damascus
suburb in defense of members of the Druze minority sect, who live in both Israel
and Syria, after short-lived clashes broke out between the new Syrian security
forces and Druze armed factions. The distance from Damascus to the
Israeli-controlled Golan Heights is about 60 kilometers (37 miles.)
Turkey and Israel once were close allies, but the relationship has been marked
by deep tensions under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s more than
two-decade rule, despite brief periods of reconciliation. Erdogan is an
outspoken critic of Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians, while Israel has
been angered by Erdogan’s support for the Hamas militant group, which Israel
considers to be a terrorist group.
Following the war in Gaza, Turkey strongly denounced Israel’s military actions,
announced it was cutting trade ties with Israel, and joined a genocide case
South Africa brought against Israel at the U.N. International Court of Justice.
Aydintasbas said Turkish authorities are now increasingly concerned that Israel
is “supportive of autonomy demands from Kurds, the Druze and Alawites.”
Erdogan issued a thinly veiled threat against Israel last week, saying: “Those
who seek to provoke ethnic and religious (divisions) in Syria to exploit
instability in the country should know that they will not be able to achieve
their goals.”
Last week, factions allied with the new Syrian government — allegedly including
some backed by Turkey — launched revenge attacks on members of Assad’s Alawite
minority sect after pro-Assad groups attacked government security forces on
Syria’s coast. Monitoring groups said hundreds of civilians were killed.Erdogan
strongly condemned the violence and suggested the attacks were aimed at “Syria’s
territorial integrity and social stability.”Israel’s deputy foreign minister,
Sharren Haskel, said the deadly sectarian violence amounted to “ethnic
cleansing” by Islamist groups led by “a jihadist Islamist terror group that took
Damascus by force and was supported by Turkey.” Israel, Haskel added, was
working to prevent a threat along its border from Syria’s new “jihadist regime.”
Israel’s involvement in Syria was deepening, with the country pledging
protection and economic aid to the Druze community in southern Syria at a time
of heightened sectarian tensions.
The Druze, a small religious sect, are caught between Syria’s new Islamist-led
government in Damascus and Israel, which many Syrians view as a hostile neighbor
leveraging the Druze’s plight to justify its intervention in the region. Israel
says it sent food aid trucks to the Druze in southern Syria and is allowing some
Syrian Druze to cross into the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan Heights to
work. Al-Sharaa was somewhat conciliatory toward
Israel in his early statements, saying that he didn’t seek a conflict. But his
language has become stronger. In a speech at a recent Arab League emergency
meeting in Cairo, he said that Israel’s “aggressive expansion is not only a
violation of Syrian sovereignty, but a direct threat to security and peace in
the entire region.”The Brookings Institute’s Aydintasbas said the escalating
tensions are cause for serious concern. “Before we used to have Israel and
Turkey occasionally engage in spats but be able to decouple their security
relationship from everything else,” Aydintasbas said. “But right now, they are
actively trying to undermine each other. The question is, do these countries
know each other’s red lines?”A report from the Institute for National Security
Studies, a think tank led by a former Israeli military intelligence chief,
suggested that Israel could benefit from engaging with Turkey, the one regional
power with considerable influence over Syria’s leadership, to reduce the risk of
military conflict between Israel and Syria.
Saudi Arabia and Conflict Resolution
Mohammed al-Rumaihi/Asharq Al Awsat/March 16/2025
Last week, the world turned its attention to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, as US and
Ukrainian officials met to resolve the long-standing allies’ dispute that had
exploded, two weeks ago, in the White House. The two sides chose Saudi Arabia to
host this historic meeting, preferring it over the multitude of international
bodies set up to find solutions for disputes between countries, because they
know that it is a neutral space and a country they can trust.
The bigger picture, however, is that a complicated conflict in Ukraine that
cannot be easily contained continues. It is a global conflict that has split the
world into those who have sided with Russia and the Western camp. The conflict
has intermittently heated up internationally, and it has consumed significant
European, American, and Russian resources, and destroyed cities and even lives.
Indeed, some sources estimate that the conflict is killing three thousand people
every week.
International conflicts erupt for a variety of reasons, including border
disputes between neighbors, ethnic conflicts, ideological economic competition,
and historical grievances. These conflicts can go on for long periods, even for
generations, as we see in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a history of facilitating conflict resolution.
The 1989 Taif Agreement is one example. Lebanon was being torn apart by warring
factions, and the Kingdom managed to reconcile the Lebanese, with the Taif
Agreement becoming a milestone in Lebanon's contemporary political history. As
we know, some Lebanese have reneged on many of the agreement’s stipulations. If
the Agreement had been respected, Lebanon would have been spared the suffering
it has endured since.
Nonetheless, in Saudi Arabia's effort to resolve this major international
crisis, we have something else entirely. Success has a whole set of different
requirements. Creating an environment conducive to negotiations is essential;
the two sides of the dispute must feel they can communicate directly, seeking
their interests and voicing their concerns without inhibition. The Kingdom's
effort to facilitate dialogue helps the two sides find solutions. To succeed,
the host country must have particular qualities and capabilities; both parties
must be confident that Saudi Arabia is a neutral and fair mediator, allowing
them both to trust that their fundamental interests will be safeguarded.
Conflict resolution is complex and multifaceted. It requires active diplomacy,
well-documented information, a strategy built on knowledge and patience, and an
understanding of the intricate dynamics of global relations and the balance of
power. These elements can pave the way for dialogue, bridge differences, and
weave together peaceful solutions and acceptable options.
That is where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman comes in. His strong
communication skills and determination are buttressed by Saudi Arabia’s
long-standing diplomatic experience and the ethical policy positions that have
historically characterized Saudi Arabia's engagement with the world.
The path to resolving international conflicts can be thorny; progress is rarely
linear. Accordingly, the focus must remain on major issues and the strategic
interests of all parties. The disputing
parties trust the mediator absolutely- the kind of trust Russians, Americans,
and Ukrainians have clearly placed in the Crown Prince.
If progress is made, the leaders of all three parties (Russia, Ukraine, and the
United States), and perhaps European leaders, could potentially choose Saudi as
their host for talks to bring the longest armed conflict in Europe since World
War II to an end, inaugurating a new phase of peace.
Conflict resolution has traditionally been the reserve of major powers. The
United States played this role in Northern Ireland, Bosnia, and the 1978 Camp
David Accords. For the first time, the Middle East, specifically Saudi Arabia,
has become the center of gravity of international conflict resolution. This is
deeply significant. It signals that Saudi Arabia is vigorously pursuing peace,
turning the Kingdom into a venue that global powers trust and inaugurating a new
era of proactive diplomacy.
A final word: Saudi Arabia’s neutral stance on this crisis, which has been
accepted by all parties, was reflected in its humanitarian support for Ukraine,
whose president it has hosted on several occasions while maintaining healthy
relations with all sides.
No other land, no other truth
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/March 15, 2025
It was only on the occasion of the 25th Academy Awards, also known as the
Oscars, that the category of documentary films was added to the list of awards.
In the more than 70 years since then, the award has continued to play an
exceptional role in highlighting a wide range of social and political issues,
helping to bring them to the attention of the wider public.This year’s
shortlisted documentaries included “Black Box Diaries,” about sexual violence,
and “Porcelain Wars,” about the experiences of Ukrainian artists in the face of
the Russian war on Ukraine. However, the members of the Academy chose as the
winner “No Other Land,” a film about aspects of the conflict between Israel and
Palestine made by an Israeli-Palestinian collective of four activists: Basel
Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham, and Rachel Szor.
The Academy members chose it not because they did not think it would cause
controversy, but because they knew it would, and for all the right reasons. In
the middle of the worst round of hostilities between Israelis and Palestinians
since 1948, a film that focuses on the unremitting forced displacement of
Palestinians from their homes in Masafer Yatta — an area in the South Hebron
Hills of the West Bank that is home to 12 Palestinian villages with about 2,800
residents — has given a voice to one of the poorest and most defenseless
Palestinian communities and their struggle for survival against the arbitrary
Israeli occupation.For that, the makers of this film fully deserve the accolades
and applause that comes with the recognition by their fellow filmmakers. The
very existence of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land and the treatment
of the Palestinian people is disturbing in its oppressiveness, its ruthlessness,
and how arbitrary it is. Denying people their basic rights has become the rule
rather than the exception, and in many cases it is done for the sole purpose of
demonstrating who the masters of the land are.
The story of Masafer Yatta goes back to the 1980s, when Israeli authorities
designated this part of the occupied West Bank as “Firing Zone 918,” a closed
military site. Ever since then, residents have been at risk of forced eviction,
the demolition of their homes, and forcible transfer. Two other villages,
Khirbet Sarura and Kharoubeh, no longer exist because the homes of the people
who lived there were razed to the ground.
The residents of Masafer Yatta have found no success in their efforts to seek
the protection of the Israeli legal system, which as a general rule sides with
the occupation, and so demolitions have continued.
Just last month, Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem reported that
Israeli security forces had demolished seven cinder-block structures with tin
roofs that were the homes of seven families, leaving 54 people, including 28
children, homeless. They also destroyed four caves, two water cisterns, two
water tanks, and three solar panels used by some of the families.
This is the situation that “No Other Land” chronicles over the course of four
years, from 2019 to 2023. Its main strength lies in the fact that with minimal
commentary, it lets viewers make up their own minds and pass their own verdicts
on where they stand on what they see. “No Other Land” is not an attempt to tell
the entire history or explain the politics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
nor does it offer any solutions. It focuses on how an occupation corrupts the
occupier and renders it callous as it inflicts suffering on the occupied, hardly
viewing them as human beings at all.
When they demolish the homes of Palestinians, they leave the occupants homeless.
When they destroy a school, children are deprived of education and future
prospects. When they wreck a playground, they take away one of the small joys
left to youngsters. Denying people their basic rights has become the rule rather
than the exception. This is not about security; these people are not a security
risk. And the Israeli Civil Administration, the governing body in the West Bank,
has had more than 40 years to resolve, humanely and compassionately, the
situation of these people, had it genuinely cared for them.
Instead, as a consequence of this intolerable situation, Palestinians live in
fear of eviction and of being attacked by the security forces and settlers.
Meanwhile, they rely on foreign humanitarian assistance to build or rebuild
their homes and public facilities, only for them to be repeatedly demolished by
Israel’s security forces. Interestingly enough, “No Other Land” has been heavily
criticized from two diametrically opposed, but equally misguided, quarters —
although the reaction from one of the groups of critics was a particular
surprise.
The more obvious disapproval was voiced by Israeli officials, and right-wing
politicians and commentators. One Israeli diplomat went so far as to say: “Under
the guise of freedom of expression and art, antisemitic and anti-Israel rhetoric
is celebrated.” Israeli Culture Minister Miki Zohar reacted to the film’s
triumph at the Oscars by stating that “turning the defamation of Israel into a
tool for international promotion is not art, it is sabotage against the State of
Israel.”
But this film is neither anti-Israeli, nor antisemitic. It simply holds a mirror
up to Israeli society and shows what is happening in that society’s name in the
West Bank, especially to extremely vulnerable communities. Do they not like what
they see because it is an inconvenient truth which they would rather continue to
deny, as they have done for so many decades? Probably, yes.
If they are disturbed by what they see in this film, they should demand that
this inhuman treatment stop immediately. Breaking the mirror into pieces will
not change the reality in the West Bank, nor the fact that those who do not
speak up against the immoral and illegal behavior of Israeli forces are
complicit in making the lives of innocent people a misery.
More stupefying, though equally misguided, has been the criticism of “No Other
Land” by the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement. For it to claim that
the “film indeed violates the BDS movement’s anti-normalization guidelines,”
would be comical if it was not so tragically dogmatic and damaging.
The premise of this Israeli-Palestinian cooperative film venture is based on
joint opposition to the unacceptable and unbearable conditions under which the
occupied population is forced to live. By creating this film, and winning prizes
at some of the most prestigious film festivals in the world, its makers are
exposing many millions of viewers around the world to the ill-treatment of the
people of Masafer Yatta.
This is not normalization, this is Arabs and Israelis fighting
shoulder-to-shoulder against normalization of the occupation by those who
support it and those who remain in willful denial of it.
Those among us who believe Israelis and Palestinians are destined to live in
peace with one another, and must eventually be reconciled, are encouraged by
this cooperation between those whose mission is to bear witness to the daily
injustices and suffering caused by this conflict.
They should not be decried for that but should only enjoy our praise and undying
support. At the end of the day, neither of the two peoples have another land and
so they must learn to share this one with mutual respect and dignity.
*Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg
Turkiye and its outreach in Africa
Dr. Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/March 15, 2025
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once stated: “Turkiye wants to walk
alongside Africa as a new world order is being established.” This statement
clearly reflects Ankara’s policy on Africa amid the geopolitical shifts that
have implications for the continent. Africa, a continent increasingly known for
rivalries among global powers, is going through a period of change in power
dynamics. France’s recent military withdrawals from the Sahel and West Africa
have created a power vacuum that several actors, such as the US, China, and
Russia, seek to fill.
Turkiye is carefully reading this regional zeitgeist in an attempt to secure
economic and diplomatic dominance. Although a power play in Africa gives Turkiye
limited room for maneuvering, its position as a middle power offers some
advantages over global powers that have been affected by recent geopolitical
shifts in the Middle East and beyond. The regime change in the Syrian Arab
Republic, for example, has jeopardized Russia’s use of the country for its
Mediterranean and African outreach. Both Syria and Ukraine have forced Russia to
revise its strategy in Africa at a time when Western powers are gradually
withdrawing from the continent. While this Western withdrawal should play into
the hands of the Kremlin, it has also opened the door for other actors, such as
Turkiye, to enter the game. Thus, the growing Turkish geopolitical influence in
Africa is challenged not only by the Russian presence but also by that of the
Chinese, who view the continent as a “base” from which a rising China might best
extend its global power. In 2017, Turkiye established a military base in
Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, at a cost of $50 million. Like American and
Chinese military sites in Djibouti, the Turkish base offers proximity to the
Indian Ocean. Turkiye is also looking to fill the void left by the US across the
Horn of Africa and into the Sahel. It is important to understand Turkiye’s
motives for all of this, especially as some African countries have ordered
Western powers, including the US, to withdraw military personnel from their
countries.
Diplomatic leverage, economic gains, security commitments, status-seeking, and
global power competition are five major drivers behind Ankara’s policy on
Africa. As a G20 member, Turkiye evidently feels the need to engage with the
continent, as have many other G20 powers.
By building closer relations with African states, Turkiye seeks their potential
support within international platforms, including the UN General Assembly. In
line with this aim, Ankara has increased the number of its embassies on the
continent from 12 to 44 in two decades. It also holds an annual Turkiye-Africa
Summit, at which it gradually institutionalizes its Africa policy.
Turkiye has been applying a combination of soft and hard power to expand its
role in the Sahel and West Africa. Through bilateral trade and investment,
Turkiye also seeks to build South-South cooperation. The total volume of trade
between Turkiye and African nations increased substantially between 2003 and
2023, from $1.35 billion to $12.4 billion. African partners are actively seeking
further Turkish engagement. For instance, Tanzanian Foreign Minister Mahmoud
Thabit Kombo recently asked Turkiye to support a project that aims to provide
electricity to 300 million people across the continent by 2030. Uganda has
invited Turkish firms to invest in shipbuilding and port development to help
boost tourism activities.
While the economy and trade are the primary motivating factors behind Turkiye’s
outreach to Africa, along with its historical and cultural ties to the region,
in recent years the engagement has also taken on a military aspect. Maintaining
economic gains is not easy, as it requires security commitments.
The transformation of the Turkish defense industry, with a clear shift from arms
procurement to manufacturing and sales, plays a key role in Turkiye’s Africa
policy. For example, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad have acquired Turkish
drones, while other Sahelian countries have acquired a variety of other Turkish
military equipment.Turkiye has signed security cooperation agreements with most
countries on the continent. It has also reportedly deployed military advisers
and drones at the Abeche base in Chad, following the departure in late January
of the French garrison that had been stationed there.
However, Turkiye wants to avoid being viewed predominantly as an actor that
engages with the continent through military or security activity. Therefore, it
adopts a more holistic approach to its relations with Africa, encompassing more
than only military projects, including investments in education, such as
scholarships for Africans to study in Turkiye. As Joseph Nye, the political
scientist who coined the term “soft power” in the early 1990s, pointed out,
there is no difference between hard power and soft power in terms of the
intended goals. Aware of this, Turkiye has been applying a combination of soft
and hard power to expand its role in the Sahel and West Africa, in order to
widen its sphere of influence. This is paying off; African ambassadors and
students who work or study in Turkiye have found that their time there can serve
as a springboard that helps them rise to the level of ministers, as seen in
Somalia, or even presidents, as in Ethiopia.Mediation is another soft power tool
that Turkiye aims to employ while pursuing its economic goals and maintaining
its security commitments. After brokering a deal between Ethiopia and Somalia,
Ankara now seeks a role in efforts to end the civil war in Sudan as well. It has
also declared its intention to help resolve the dispute between Rwanda and the
Democratic Republic of Congo, if both sides desire the assistance. Turkiye’s
African outreach is considered, in diplomatic terms, an “overstretch,” which
means it brings with it both challenges and opportunities. Given the country’s
military and economic capabilities, and the disquieting risks the continent
poses, Turkiye must therefore navigate its African policy carefully to ensure
its strategy is sustainable. The African continent, and in particular the Sahel
and West Africa regions, are theaters for both global and regional powers, which
offers Ankara incentives to get involved but also limits its room for maneuver.
**Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s
relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
All eyes on Putin for next step to Ukraine peace
Luke Coffey/Arab News/March 15, 2025
Global events can move quickly. Just two weeks ago, the world watched as
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a heated exchange with US President
Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office. A planned rare
earths mineral deal was scrapped at the last minute, and Zelensky was sent out
of the White House in an unprecedented diplomatic standoff. But hard work and
sincere diplomacy can pay off. Behind the scenes, both sides worked tirelessly
to repair the relationship, culminating in a high-stakes meeting in Jeddah this
week that brought the US-Ukraine relationship back on track and set the stage
for what could be the first meaningful step toward ending Russia’s three-year
invasion of Ukraine.
Trump has been clear about his desire to end the war, but since returning to
office in January he has learned that this is easier said than done. The meeting
in Jeddah was the first concrete step in that process. One of Trump’s biggest
criticisms of Ukraine during the heated White House exchange was that he did not
believe Zelensky was sincere about wanting peace. After Jeddah, that perception
has changed. The US and Ukraine agreed to a temporary 30-day ceasefire on land,
at sea, and in the air — a deal that could be extended if all parties agree.
However, Kyiv would not implement it unless Moscow agreed to do the same.
Forty-eight hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supported the
idea of a ceasefire but added conditions that make its implementation uncertain.
The US and Ukraine also finalized the draft of the minerals deal that had been
abandoned at the White House. Trump has even invited Zelensky back to the Oval
Office, signaling a major turnaround in their strained relationship. As
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “The ball is in Russia’s court.”
Last week I made my fourth visit to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion
in 2022. Anyone who has spent time there knows that Ukrainians want an end to
the war. They endure nightly air raids, missile strikes, and drone attacks. They
also understand the long-term threat that Russia poses if there are no real
security guarantees. For those of us who have seen wartime Ukraine firsthand, it
has always been obvious that the Ukrainian people want the fighting to end. Yet
some around Trump question whether Zelensky shares this view. After Jeddah,
there is no longer any doubt. It is now up to Russia to decide whether to pursue
peace. There is still a long way to go, and plenty of opportunities for
setbacks. Even if a temporary ceasefire were agreed on, the war would be far
from over. The night before the Jeddah talks, Ukraine launched its largest drone
strike yet, sending nearly 400 to hit targets as far away as Moscow. Meanwhile
Russia has continued its relentless bombardment of Ukraine with missiles and
drones on a near-nightly basis.
Trump has been clear about his desire to end the war, but since returning to
office in January he has learned that this is easier said than done.
When I visited the front lines in the Kherson region, it was clear that
decisions made in Jeddah, Washington, or Moscow are often irrelevant to those
fighting on the ground. For the soldiers in the trenches, survival is the only
priority. Until an actual ceasefire is implemented — not just discussed —
nothing will change for them. Another major development in the war, and one that
represents a significant setback for Ukraine, is Russia’s counteroffensive in
its Kursk region. Ukraine launched a surprise attack last August and captured a
sizeable portion of territory. The idea was to hold on to this land as a
bargaining chip for future negotiations. But over the past seven months, Russian
forces — bolstered by thousands of North Korean troops — have steadily regained
control. Last week it appears that Moscow had completed its recapture of all the
territory Ukraine seized.
It will be up to future historians to assess whether the Kursk offensive
accomplished tactical objectives or if it was a strategic miscalculation. In the
short term, however, it does not help Ukraine’s position at the negotiating
table. The loss of Kursk weakens its leverage.
After traveling around Ukraine this past week, I am certain of one thing: the
Ukrainian people are exhausted from the war. But they also know they have no
choice but to keep fighting as long as Russia continues its aggression. If there
is to be any lasting peace, it must include security guarantees ensuring that
Russia will not attack again. This is the biggest challenge for Kyiv. Trump has
ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and has shifted the responsibility for
security guarantees on to Europe. However, because the U.S. and most European
countries operate under the same security umbrella, in practice it would be
difficult to separate American and European commitments.
The road to peace is long, and the war is far from over. The ongoing fighting in
Donetsk, Kursk, and Kherson proves that reality. The biggest question now is
whether the progress made in Jeddah will hold. There is always the risk that
Trump is looking for a short-term political victory rather than a lasting peace
agreement. If the ceasefire collapses, the war will probably escalate again, and
Ukraine may find itself in an even more difficult position than before.
For now, all eyes are on Moscow. The coming weeks will determine whether Russia
is serious about peace or if the war will continue indefinitely.
**Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey