English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 20/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
If you love me, you will keep my commandments. And I will ask the Father, and he
will give you another Advocate, to be with you for ever
Saint John 14/15-20:”‘If you love me, you will keep my
commandments. And I will ask the Father, and he will give you another Advocate,
to be with you for ever. This is the Spirit of truth, whom the world cannot
receive, because it neither sees him nor knows him. You know him, because he
abides with you, and he will be in you. ‘I will not leave you orphaned; I am
coming to you. In a little while the world will no longer see me, but you will
see me; because I live, you also will live. On that day you will know that I am
in my Father, and you in me, and I in you.”
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on June 19-20/2025
Ian’s threats to involve Hezbollah in its war with Israel confirm that it
is merely a terrorist arm under its command/Elias Bejjani/June 20/2025
Lebanon’s Rulers, Political Class, Majority of the Senior Clergy, and Political
Parties’ Owners Are of No Use/Elias Bejjani/June 18, 2025
The Imminent Fall of the Evil Mullah Regime: Israel Rescues the World from the
Most Dangerous Regime Since Hitler/Elias Bejjani/June 18/2025
What a Gift—Farah Nabih Berri Becomes Lebanon’s New Ambassador to Britain...
Hurry Up and Congratulate!/Elias Bejjani/ June16, 2025
The Aura of the Mullahs’ Regime Is a Lie, and Hezbollah Is a Fraud Incapable of
Even Protecting Itself/Elias Bejjani/June 17/2025
Video Link: Interview from “Transparency Youtube Platform” with Hanin Ghaddar,
Research Fellow at the Washington Institute’s Program on Arab Politics
'Very bad decision' if Hezbollah joins Iran-Israel war, says US official
Aoun seeks US support to stabilize security in southern Lebanon
Tom Barrack meets Lebanese leaders as US-Lebanon talks stall on Hezbollah arms
Aoun says arms talks to 'intensify' when regional stability returns
PM Salam meets US Envoy to discuss security, sovereignty, and border issues
Qassem says Hezbollah 'not neutral,' will act as it sees fit
Would Hezbollah join Iran war if US intervened?
Netanyahu says Hezbollah, proxies will collapse once Iran threat 'removed'
Targeted Strikes in Southern Lebanon
Israel strikes Kfarjoz, Houla, killing at least three
Hezbollah says threats to kill Khamenei 'foolish and reckless'
UK issues travel warning for Lebanon amid air travel disruption risks
Beirut Port overhaul: Lebanon adopts advanced scanning tech to fight smuggling
Arrest Warrant in Absentia Issued Against Former Minister Amin Salam
French court to rule on freeing Lebanese Georges Abdallah
Return of Displaced Syrians: Lebanon and UNHCR Polish Action Plan
Sleeping Through the Storm: Lebanon’s Crisis of Inaction/Marc Saikali/This is
Beirut/June 19, 2025
Raids at Casino du Liban and OMT: Sweeping Out Parallel Financing Networks/Tara
B. Moussallem/This is Beirut/June 19/2025
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 19-20/2025
Israel-Iran air war enters second week as Europe pushes diplomacy
IAEA chief identifies Isfahan as Iran's planned uranium enrichment site
Iran held direct talks with US amid intensifying conflict with Israel, diplomats
say
Iran hits hospital, Israel strikes nuclear facilities as Trump says decision
within 2 weeks
Iran hits hospital, Israel strikes nuclear facilities as Trump says decision
within 2 weeks
As calls for regime change in Iran grow, here are some facts
Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of
protests
Israel wants a 'hopeful' post-conflict Middle East reality and resolute
relations with EU
Xi Shows No Sign of Rescuing Iran as Trump Ramps Up Pressure
Europe partly to blame for Iran-Israel conflict, Iran's UN ambassador tells
Euronews
Pakistan fears militants will thrive on restive border if Iran destabilised
At least 12 Palestinians killed waiting for aid in Gaza, say medics
UN: Violence against children in conflict reached 'unprecedented levels' in
2024, with Gaza worst
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources
on June 19-20/2025
'When the Judges Ruled, There Was Famine': Bible/Alan M.
Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/June 19, 2025
As Trump Weighs Up Joining Israel's War Against Iran, Here's A Reminder How We
Got Here/Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/June 19, 2025
Trump’s credibility problem on Iran/ Aaron Blake, CNN/June 19, 2025
Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program is fully justified under
international law/Geoffrey Corn and Orde F. Kittrie/Center for Ethics and the
Rule of Law/June19/2025
‘They strike, we dance’ — Iranians damn the regime amid Israeli barrage/Janatan
Sayeh/New York Post/June 19/2025
A major battle in The Long War ... The roots of the current Middle East conflict
trace back centuries/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/June 19/2025
Erdogan Attempts to Rally the Muslim World Against Israel/Sinan Ciddi and Tyler
Stapleton/FDD Policy Brief/June 19/2025
10 Things to Know About Tehran’s Propaganda Network, the Islamic Republic of
Iran Broadcasting/Dershowitz/FDD Insight/June 19/2025
Why Are Gulf Countries Not Speaking Out Against Their Rival Iran?/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/June
19, 2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June
19-20/2025
Ian’s
threats to involve Hezbollah in its war with Israel confirm that it is merely a
terrorist arm under its command.
Elias Bejjani/June 20/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/06/144400/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdCw97P8fYE
A recent statement by a senior Iranian official made one thing unmistakably
clear: "If the United States enters the war, Hezbollah will join the battle and
attack Israel".
"We note with sorrow and disappointment that not a single Lebanese official had
the courage to respond to this blatant Iranian statement—an insult and
humiliation to all of Lebanon’s leaders, foremost among them the Presidents of
the Republic and the Council of Ministers. They swallowed their tongues and
remained silent, like the Sphinx."
This declaration strips away every remaining illusion and reaffirms what many
have long asserted—Hezbollah is not Lebanese, nor is it a “resistance” movement.
It is a fully integrated military brigade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC), created, trained, and funded to serve Tehran’s regional agenda.
From its very inception in 1982, Hezbollah has been nothing but an extension of
Iran’s military apparatus. Its existence was never intended to defend Lebanon or
liberate Palestine, as it falsely claims in its propaganda. Instead, it was
established to serve as Iran’s frontline defense in case the Islamic Republic
came under Israeli or American attack. The recent Iranian statement was not a
mere opinion—it was an official order, a reminder that Hezbollah’s allegiance
lies with Iran, not Lebanon.
The Myth of Resistance and the Reality of Subordination
Hezbollah’s slogans of “resistance” and “liberation” are nothing but deceitful
rhetoric meant to cover its true mission: acting as a loyal servant to Iran’s
expansionist ambitions. It has never had an independent Lebanese decision-making
process. Every move, every war, every escalation has been carried out under
direct orders from Tehran.
Let us not forget the main terrorist operations Hezbollah has carried out both
in Lebanon and abroad at the behest of the Iranian regime:
The 1983 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut.
The 1983 attack on the Multinational Force headquarters in Beirut, killing 241
U.S. Marines and 58 French soldiers.
The hijacking of TWA Flight 847 in 1985.
The global terror operations in Argentina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, and beyond.
Its 2006 war with Israel, launched without any Lebanese consensus, which
devastated Lebanon and served Iranian interests.
Hezbollah's Betrayal of Lebanon’s Shiite Community
Far from being a protector of Lebanon’s Shiites, Hezbollah is their greatest
enemy. It has taken the Shiite population hostage, using its youth as cannon
fodder in Iran’s foreign wars—in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, and the West Bank. It
silences dissent within its community, crushes opponents, and enforces a culture
of fear and blind allegiance to the Iranian Supreme Leader.
Lebanon’s Shiites never chose Hezbollah. This militia was imposed on them by
Iran, aided by a complicit Syrian regime, that was occupying Lebanon, and
through internal coercion. A powerful example of this coercion was the Battle of
Iqlim al-Tuffah in the late 1980s, where Hezbollah, backed militarily by both
Iran and even—ironically—Israel, crushed the Amal Movement militarily. Later,
Amal leader Nabih Berri was forced to submit to Iranian authority and align his
movement with Hezbollah's project.
This dark chapter illustrates that Hezbollah’s rise was not organic, and
certainly not democratic. It was the result of a deliberate Iranian occupation
of Lebanon’s Shiite community—and by extension, the entire country.
A Cancer Eating Away at Lebanon
Hezbollah is not just a threat to Lebanese sovereignty—it is a cancer consuming
the Lebanese state from within. Its grip over government institutions, its veto
power in politics, and its arsenal of weapons all make it a state within a
state—one that reports directly to Tehran.
Its continuous threats of civil war are hollow, born out of desperation.
Hezbollah today is weaker than it wants the world to believe. But as long as it
holds onto its weapons and remains above the law, Israel will be forced to
finish the job if the Lebanese Army fails to disarm it.
The Only Solution: Removal—By Peace or by Force
Hezbollah’s continued presence poses an existential threat to Lebanon, not just
to its sovereignty, but to its future. The only path forward is to dismantle
this Iranian militia—whether through internal peaceful disarmament or, if
necessary, through military confrontation. There is no other way.
If Lebanon’s leaders continue their shameful submission and cowardice in the
face of Hezbollah’s tyranny, then Israel—or any other force—will eventually be
compelled to neutralize this threat themselves.
The price of inaction is the continued occupation of Lebanon by a foreign proxy,
and the endless suffering of its people.
In summary, Hezbollah is not a resistance movement, nor is it Lebanese. It is
Iran’s foreign, armed, jihadist-terrorist proxy—a tool of war and destruction.
Its removal is not a choice, but a national and moral obligation.
Lebanon’s Rulers, Political Class, Majority of the Senior Clergy, and Political
Parties’ Owners Are of No Use
Elias Bejjani/June 18, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/06/144365/
Unfortunately, Joseph Aoun is nothing more than a decorative vase and a dull
portrait in Baabda Palace—he neither rules nor decides. As for our Bekerki
patriarch, he’s absent-minded, estranged, and detached from his role, reduced to
a mere false witness. Most of the senior clergy worship the Judas of our time.
The bitter truth in the Land of the Cedars is that, to this very moment, Lebanon
is actually totally ruled by Nabih Berri and Hezbollah. As for the miserable
political parties and their corrupt, greedy owners, they are nothing but
submissive Dhimmis—narcissistic, spineless, stripped of will and dignity. Truly,
we are living in a time of collapse, misery, and a Judas-like betrayal era.
The
Imminent Fall of the Evil Mullah Regime: Israel Rescues the World from the Most
Dangerous Regime Since Hitler
Elias Bejjani/June 18/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/06/144345/
After more than four decades of organized terrorism and ruthless brutality,
Iran’s evil Mullahs' regime is now crumbling under the weight of decisive
Israeli strikes and the clear, unwavering stance of U.S. President Donald Trump.
This regime—one that has never known limits to its crimes—is living its final
moments after spreading destruction wherever it reached, hiding behind the
Palestinian cause and the liberation of Jerusalem, and wearing a false sectarian
religious mask that has nothing to do with either Islam or humanity.
Since 1979, the Mullahs of Iran have ignited proxy wars, assassinated leaders,
dismantled governments, destroyed societies, and planted sectarian militias from
Lebanon to Yemen, from Iraq to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. The threat
posed by this regime has never been limited to Israel alone—it has endangered
the Gulf and the entire Arab world.
President Donald Trump made yesterday his position crystal clear: “The Mullahs'
regime must surrender unconditionally.”
We believe strongly that the time for diplomatic games is over. No more European
appeasement. No more pointless negotiations. This is the moment of truth.
The Iranian regime cannot be reformed—it must be dismantled.
Credit for this historic turning point goes first and foremost to Israel, the
only nation that never fell for the Mullahs’ lies. With precision and boldness,
Israel has taken out top commanders, destroyed defense systems, disabled nuclear
reactors, and completely dominated Iranian airspace—striking whatever and
wherever it chooses, while Iran stands powerless, unable to respond. The balance
of power is 100% in Israel’s favor.
Unlike many Arab and European nations, Israel never fell for Iran’s deceptive
slogans of “resistance,” “liberation,” or praying in Jerusalem. Nor did it
believe the genocidal threats of throwing Jews into the sea. From the beginning,
Israel saw the truth: a sectarian, hypocritical, bloodthirsty, expansionist
regime driven by delusional historical fantasies. Israel built its strategy on
confrontation, not compromise. Today, the whole world is reaping the rewards of
that clarity and resilience.
One of the most dangerous legacies of Iran’s regime is the ideology of Wilayat
al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist), which recognizes neither nations nor
borders. It is a dangerous belief system that commands blind loyalty from every
Shiite individual—placing allegiance to the Supreme Leader in Tehran above
loyalty to their own country and community.
This twisted ideology has destroyed the fabric of national Shiite communities,
dragging them into betrayal and subservience. Lebanon is the clearest example,
where Hezbollah became the living embodiment of this satanic deviation—holding
the Lebanese Shiite community hostage, occupying the state, hijacking its
institutions, and dragging the peaceful nation of Lebanon into endless wars and
total submission through so-called “divine resistance” and “religious duty.”
The free world—especially the Arab world—owes a great debt to Israel. It never
compromised, never hesitated, and never got fooled. Instead, Israel planned,
waited, struck, and saved the region from what would have been a nuclear,
sectarian nightmare that could have engulfed the Middle East and terrified the
world.
Israel’s role in destroying this terrorist regime must be recorded in history
not only as an act of self-defense but as a bold initiative on behalf of all
humanity. Without Israel’s courage and clarity, this region would already be
enslaved by a regime armed with nuclear weapons and a doctrine of death.
The End of the Mullahs: A Victory for All Humanity in general and to the
oppressed Iranian people in particular.
What a Gift—Farah Nabih Berri
Becomes Lebanon’s New Ambassador to Britain... Hurry Up and Congratulate!
Elias Bejjani/ June16, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/06/144300/
Rejoice! Celebrate! Host your
congratulatory parties! This is your moment, ladies and gentlemen—don’t miss it.
Let’s all applaud and preen the feathers of the “Master,” and may God multiply
the hats and rabbits of his theatrical circus.
It is worth mentioning that officially it was announced today that the Council
of Ministers has appointed Farah Berri, daughter of “President” Nabih Berri, as
Lebanon’s new Ambassador to Britain, replacing Ambassador Inaam Osseiran.
This appointment is yet another product of the infamous “quota corruption
deals”—the corrupt distribution of diplomatic posts among the ruling mafia. It
clearly confirms that Nawaf Salam’s government, along with the tenure credited
to Joseph Aoun, are nothing but submissive tools in the hands of “Master Nabih
Berri, the very man who once coined the phrase about “pulling her leg out of the
window.”
There is no doubt that Farah Berri’s presence in such a prestigious post will
bolster her father—the “Master”—renowned for his “noble” legacy of corruption,
brokerage, manipulation, and absolute control. He maintains firm dominance over
Lebanon’s ruling class and with Hezbollah hijack the decisions and fate of the
Shiite community—now taken hostage by the mullah regime and its local
mercenaries, led by none other than “Nabih Berri” and “Hezbollah.”
So come on, let’s congratulate, offer blessings, ululate, dance, and cheer:
“Long live the tenure of Joseph Aoun!”—a tenure that has become a crippling
burden on Lebanon and its people, a roadblock standing in the way of restoring
sovereignty and implementing UN international resolutions. And here we are, on a
date that was supposed to witness the disarmament of Palestinian factions in
Beirut’s camps and suburbs. But of course, it passed unnoticed—nothing achieved,
as usual, except for a barrage of flimsy excuses.
Joseph Aoun’s tenure has lost its shine, now lumped in with the failed
presidencies of Emile Lahoud, Michel Aoun, and Elias Hrawi. And if you need
further proof, just examine the names, backgrounds, and allegiances of Joseph
Aoun’s chosen advisors. You’ll quickly realize we are living in an age of ruin
and disgrace. ..So pour, my dear, pour—fill my glass again, and raise your voice
with me saying Cheers!
The Aura of
the Mullahs’ Regime Is a Lie, and Hezbollah Is a Fraud Incapable of Even
Protecting Itself
Elias Bejjani/June 17/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/06/144290/
It is urgently necessary for every deluded person who still believes in the
illusion of the Mullahs’ strength, the capabilities of the terrorist group
Hezbollah, the lie of its so-called resistance, or the fantasy of its possible
integration into the Lebanese state, to either seek psychiatric treatment or
wake up from their coma of madness, ignorance, and stupidity.
Video Link: Interview from
“Transparency Youtube Platform” with Hanin Ghaddar, Research Fellow at the
Washington Institute’s Program on Arab Politics
Date: June 19, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/06/144392/
An in-depth analysis of the ongoing Iranian-Israeli war, Hezbollah’s delusional
celebratory rhetoric, Iran’s abandonment of Hezbollah, the inevitability of
ending Iran’s nuclear program, the balance of power clearly favoring Israel, the
miserable failure of Lebanon’s leaders to confront Hezbollah, the certainty that
Israel will continue its war on Hezbollah if the Lebanese Army does not disarm
the group, and the potential for an American strike on Iran.
Video Link To An Interview with Hanin Ghaddar from “Transparency Youtube
Platform
Hanin Ghaddar: The next 24 hours are crucial, Hezbollah’s celebrations are
infantile and an insult.
Iran, Israel, and Trump’s Options: Where is the Region Heading?
In this in-depth interview, Asaad Bishara and Hanin Ghaddar discussed, via Zoom,
the heated developments in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, amid
the ambiguity of the American position led by President Donald Trump.
Hanin Ghaddar explained that:
The American leadership is sharply divided, and Trump’s decisions do not stem
from a unified strategy but from a narrow circle of differing advisors.
Israel is clear in its intention to overthrow the Iranian regime, while the
American position remains more reserved, focusing on pressure to dismantle
nuclear facilities, especially “Fordo.”
Iran is not in a position to surrender; it considers retreat an existential
defeat for the regime, which increases the likelihood of military confrontation.
The possibility of a real American military strike is increasing, amid field
military movements and preparations on the ground.
Iran’s missile and military capabilities have proven to be less effective than
expected, weakening its position in any open war.
Hezbollah in Lebanon is living in a state of ideological “arrogance,” despite
the heavy costs, and a feeling of betrayal from Iran has begun to emerge within
the Shiite community.
The Lebanese state and army are incapable of providing a real alternative to
Hezbollah for the Shiites, neither in terms of security nor economy.
Government performance is slow and weak in implementing international
resolutions, especially regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, amid undeclared
American pressure.
Ghaddar pointed out that the Iranian people and opposition have moved beyond
political Islam, unlike Arab societies that are still revolving within its
circle.
Key Analytical Messages
Iran will not easily accept “nuclear surrender” conditions, and the possibility
of war has become a reality.
Israel seeks to end the Iranian nuclear project or completely overthrow the
regime.
The option of overthrowing the Iranian regime is strongly on the table in Tel
Aviv, even if not officially announced in Washington.
Hezbollah is losing popularity in Lebanon and appears as an “exhausted” facade
for a failed regional project.
Conclusion of the Interview:
Asaad Bishara concluded the meeting by emphasizing the necessity for the
Lebanese state to fully assume its responsibilities at this critical moment,
indicating that waiting for external intervention might cost Lebanon a
devastating war.
Hanin Ghaddar’s Biography
Senior Fellow, Arab Politics Program at The Washington Institute
Ms. Ghaddar is a senior fellow in the Arab Politics Program at The Washington
Institute. She was the long-time managing editor of the Lebanese news website
NOW, where she wrote commentary and analysis on Lebanese and regional politics,
Syria, and Iran. She is a regular contributor to a number of publications,
including the New York Times, Foreign Policy, and the Washington Post. Ms.
Ghaddar is a former public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International
Center for Scholars. She also wrote for As-Safir, An-Nahar, and Al-Hayat
newspapers. She was a researcher in the SURF-Arab Countries program at the
United Nations Development Program between 2002 and 2004. She holds a bachelor’s
degree in English Literature and a master’s degree in Middle East Studies, both
from the American University of Beirut.
'Very bad decision' if Hezbollah joins Iran-Israel war, says US official
Reuters/June 19, 2025
BEIRUT -A top U.S. official visiting the Lebanese capital on Thursday
discouraged Tehran-backed armed group Hezbollah from intervening in the war
between Iran and Israel, saying it would be a "very bad decision".U.S. special
envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack, who also serves as ambassador to Turkey, met
Lebanese officials in Beirut as Iran and Israel traded more strikes in their
days-long war and as the U.S. continues to press Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah.
After meeting Lebanon's Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a close ally of
Hezbollah, Barrack was asked what may happen if Hezbollah joined in the regional
conflict. "I can say on behalf of President (Donald) Trump, which he has been
very clear in expressing as has Special Envoy (Steve) Witkoff: that would be a
very, very, very bad decision," Barrack told reporters. Hezbollah has condemned
Israel's strikes on Iran and expressed full solidarity with its leadership. On
Thursday, it said threats against Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
would have "dire consequences". But the group has stopped short of making
explicit threats to intervene. After Israel began strikes on Iran last week, a
Hezbollah official told Reuters the group would not launch its own attack on
Israel in response. Hezbollah was left badly weakened from last year's war with
Israel, in which the group's leadership was gutted, thousands of fighters were
killed and strongholds in southern Lebanon and near Beirut were severely
damaged. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal which ended that war stipulates that the
Lebanese government must ensure there are no arms outside state control. Barrack
also met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Thursday and discussed the state's
monopoly on all arms. Barrack is a private equity executive who has long advised
Trump and chaired his inaugural presidential committee in 2016. He was appointed
to his role in Turkey and, in late May, also assumed the position of special
envoy to Syria.
Aoun seeks US
support to stabilize security in southern Lebanon
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/June 19, 2025
BEIRUT: In an attempt to restore peace in southern Lebanon, President Joseph
Aoun outlined key priorities during talks with Thomas Barrack, the US ambassador
to Turkiye and special envoy to Syria. Aoun said his country needs US support to
restore security and stability in the region. He called for Israeli forces to
withdraw from the five hills they occupy and urged an end to hostile actions.
Aoun also emphasized the need to extend UNIFIL’s mandate, which operates in
coordination with the Lebanese army to implement UN Resolution 1701 and aims to
deploy along Lebanon’s internationally recognized border. Aoun revealed plans to
bolster Lebanon’s military presence in the south. He announced that Lebanon will
increase its army troops south of the Litani River to 10,000 soldiers. Aoun said
these units are working to implement UN Resolution 1701 fully, removing visible
weapons, confiscating arms and ammunition, and ensuring only official security
forces are armed. But, he said, Israel’s occupation of the five hills and
surrounding areas was hindering the army’s efforts. The Lebanese president
reaffirmed Lebanon’s commitment to uphold the principle of exclusive state
control over weapons. Aoun told Barrack that discussions were ongoing at both
the Lebanese and Palestinian levels regarding the issue of Palestinian refugees’
weapons in the camps.He expressed hope that the talks would intensify once the
regional situation, recently disrupted by the escalating Israeli-Iranian
conflict, stabilizes. A source from the presidency told Arab News that Lebanon
planned to move weapons north of the Litani River, but that the process would
take time. After Lebanon’s civil war, the source said Hezbollah gradually handed
over its weapons to the government — a process that took considerable time to
complete.
A source said that Barrack — temporarily handling Lebanese matters until a
successor to former US envoy Morgan Ortagus is named — showed understanding and
a positive attitude toward Lebanon’s position during meetings with political
officials about the disarmament process. Although no prompt response followed
Barrack’s alert about the possibility of Hezbollah supporting Iran, the group
released a statement on Thursday denouncing US threats against Ali Khamenei.
Hezbollah warned: “Threatening to kill him is not only a political folly, but a
recklessness that will have dangerous repercussions.”
Hezbollah emphasized that “today, we stand more determined than ever to adhere
to Imam Khamenei’s path and firm positions in confronting, along with the
Islamic Republic, the Israeli-US aggression. Through its blind support for
Israel, the US is marching toward an abyss from which it will not survive.”Also
on Thursday, the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon received a large delegation of
Lebanese parties, forces, and figures allied with Hezbollah, and a coalition of
Palestinian forces and factions close to the party, who came to “declare their
solidarity with Iran against the Israeli aggression.” Tawfiq Samadi, the charge
d’affaires at the embassy, said that “any military action taken by Iran will be
limited, targeted, gradual and proportionate to the threat.” He said he “held
the US responsible for its full support of Israel in its crimes against Iran.
While it is not yet a direct party to the aggressions, continued US support for
the actions of the Israeli entity will carry strategic and legal consequences.”
Tom Barrack meets Lebanese
leaders as US-Lebanon talks stall on Hezbollah arms
LBCI/June 19, 2025
There is no agreement between Lebanon and the United States regarding the
approach to addressing Hezbollah’s weapons. Washington, through its presidential
envoy Tom Barrack, reiterated the urgent need to implement the state’s
commitment to disarmament, regardless of the developments in Lebanon and the
region. Lebanon, which previously linked disarmament to Israel fulfilling its
obligations—such as withdrawing from occupied areas, halting violations, and
releasing detainees—tied the issue during Thursday’s talks to the ongoing
regional situation. According to a statement posted on the Presidency’s official
X account, President Joseph Aoun told Barrack that communications to achieve the
principle of exclusive weapons control on both Lebanese and Palestinian levels
are ongoing and will intensify once the regional situation stabilizes amid the
escalating Israeli-Iranian conflict. Aoun also noted that the army’s mission in
southern Litani to implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 and the
ceasefire agreement has been hindered by Israel’s continued occupation of the
Shebaa Farms and its surroundings.In this context, Aoun reportedly reiterated
the “step-for-step” approach, meaning Israel must take steps on issues such as
withdrawal, violations, and detainees, which would be met by corresponding
Lebanese steps related to Hezbollah’s weapons.
The U.S. envoy also heard from President Aoun that Lebanon does not wish to be
drawn into the ongoing war between Israel and Iran. Barrack urged Lebanese
authorities to intensify cooperation with the new Syrian regime, particularly
regarding border control and demarcation between the two countries.
From Ain al-Tineh, the headquarters of the Parliament Speaker, Barrack said in
response to a question that Hezbollah’s involvement in the current war would be
a very bad decision. Reports indicate that the message Barrack received from
Speaker Nabih Berri was similar to that conveyed by President Aoun in Baabda.
Berri emphasized that Lebanon has fulfilled its responsibilities, while the
problem lies with Israel, which continues to violate U.N. Resolution 1701 and
the ceasefire agreement, and maintains occupation, attacks, and assassinations.
At the Grand Serail, Tom Barrack continued talks with Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam. They agreed on keeping Lebanon out of the war and on continuing state
efforts to assert sovereignty, address Hezbollah’s weapons, and resolve issues
with Israel. They also agreed to pursue reforms and strengthen communication
with Syria. Barrack, who has officially and temporarily taken charge of Lebanon
affairs following his work on Syria, is expected to return to Beirut soon after
briefing President Donald Trump on the results of his initial visit.
Aoun says arms talks to 'intensify' when regional stability
returns
Naharnet/June 19, 2025
President Joseph Aoun on Thursday told visiting U.S. envoy Tom Barrack that
contacts are ongoing to address the issue of the arms of Hezbollah and the
Palestinian factions in Lebanon, adding that the talks will intensify “after the
stabilization of the situation in the region which deteriorated due to the
escalation of the Israel-Iranian conflict.”“Lebanon is looking forward to the
United States’ support in what it is doing to achieve revival on the various
levels, topped by consolidating security and stability in the South through the
withdrawal of the Israeli forces from the five occupied hills, the cessation of
hostilities and extending the term of U.N. forces,” Aoun added, telling Barrack
that “Lebanon has decided to increase the number of army troops in the area
south of the Litani to 10,000 soldiers.”“The army units deployed south of the
Litani are continuing to fully implement Resolution 1701 in terms of removing
armed appearances, confiscating weapons and arms, and preventing any armed
presence other than that of security forces, but they have so far been unable to
continue their mission due to the continued Israeli occupation of the five hills
and the areas around them,” the president added.
Barrack for his part conveyed “the U.S. desire to help Lebanon overcome the
circumstances and challenges it is facing,” the Presidency said. He added that
Trump “wants to help Lebanon and the neighboring country in having safety,
stability and peace.”
PM Salam meets US Envoy to discuss security, sovereignty,
and border issues
LBCI/June 19, 2025
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam received U.S. special envoy Tom Barrack to
discuss developments in Lebanon and the region. During the meeting, Prime
Minister Salam reaffirmed Lebanon’s commitment to security and stability, as
well as its rejection of being drawn into the ongoing regional conflict. He also
emphasized the government’s determination to continue implementing its reform
plan and to extend the full sovereignty of the Lebanese state over its entire
territory. Salam highlighted the importance of the UNIFIL's role and its
continuation in ensuring the implementation of Resolution 1701.
He called for support to help Lebanon pressure Israel to withdraw from the
occupied Lebanese territories fully. The prime minister also updated the U.S.
envoy on government steps and ongoing coordination with the Syrian side to
address outstanding issues, primarily the control of the shared border, as a
precursor to border demarcation.
Qassem says Hezbollah 'not neutral,' will act as it sees
fit
Agence France Presse/June 19, 2025
Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said on Thursday that his Iran-backed group
would "act as we see fit" in response to the ongoing war between Iran and
Israel. In a written statement, Qassem said Hezbollah was "not neutral" in the
conflict between the two regional superpowers, saying that the group would "act
as we see fit in the face of this brutal Israeli-American aggression." This
comes after the U.S. special envoy for Syria warned Hezbollah against getting
involved in the war and after Speaker Nabih Berri said that "Lebanon will '200%'
not enter the war, because it has no interest in that and would pay the price
and because Iran does not need us."
Would Hezbollah join Iran war if US intervened?
Associated Press/June 19, 2025
Hezbollah will not join the fray in the Israeli-Iranian war, a Lebanese
government source told al-Jadeed Thursday, after an Iranian official told al-Jazeera
that Hezbollah would act if the United States intervened to back up its ally
Israel. "The communication between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah is
reassuring," the source said, ruling out such a possibility. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that the entire "Shiite axis"
including Hezbollah is not responding to Israeli attacks on Iran. "Hezbollah has
not fired a single rocket," Netanyahu said. "If we eliminate Iran, all its
proxies will collapse," he added. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal brought an end
to the latest Israel-Hezbollah war in November. Hezbollah lost much of its
senior leadership and arsenal in the conflict and has remained largely quiet
since then and has given no indication that it intends to join the fray between
Israel and Iran. Israeli forces have continued to occupy several border points
in southern Lebanon and to carry out regular airstrikes on what Israel says are
Hezbollah facilities since the ceasefire. Caroline Rose, a director at the
Washington-based New Lines Institute think tank said that while it seems "clear
that Iran-backed proxies across the region — particularly Hezbollah—just do not
have the capacity" to enter the fray, Israel could decide to expand the scope of
its offensive beyond Iran. One of the goals announced by Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu was to eliminate Iran's "axis of terrorism" — the coalition
of Tehran-backed armed groups across the region known as the "Axis of
Resistance."That goal "is ambiguous and offers Israel the operational space to
expand this war to countries it deems are hosting Iran-backed proxies, no matter
how weak they may be," Rose said. Hezbollah on Thursday condemned Israel's
threat to kill Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after an Israeli
hospital was hit during an Iranian missile attack, describing it as "an act of
recklessness and foolishness" that would have "grave consequences", but said
nothing about military intervening, while Iran-backed militants in Iraq,
threatened to attack U.S. citizens in the event that Khamenei is targeted.
Earlier this week, Hezbollah political bureau member Mahmoud Qmati denied that
Hezbollah would get involved in the Iranian-Israeli war and said that "Iran is
strong enough and does not need military support from anyone" but that was
before U.S. President Donald Trump dangled the prospect of U.S. involvement.
'I may do it, I may not' -
Khamenei has rejected Trump's demand for an "unconditional surrender", despite
the president's claims that "Iran's got a lot of trouble and they want to
negotiate". Trump has left his intentions on joining the conflict deliberately
ambiguous, saying Wednesday: "I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows
what I'm going to do. "The next week is going to be very big," he added, without
further details. Any U.S. involvement would be expected to involve the bombing
of a crucial underground Iranian nuclear facility in Fordo, using specially
developed bunker-busting bombs. The White House said Trump would receive an
intelligence briefing on Thursday, a U.S. holiday. Top U.S. diplomat Marco Rubio
is set meet his British counterpart for talks expected to focus on the conflict.
"I have ideas as to what to do, but I haven't made a final (decision)," Trump
said. "I like to make the final decision one second before it's due, because
things change. Especially with war."The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump
had told aides on Tuesday he had approved attack plans but was holding off to
see if Iran would give up its nuclear program. The U.S. president had favored a
diplomatic route to end Iran's nuclear program, seeking a deal to replace the
2015 agreement he tore up in his first term. But since Israel unleashed the
campaign against Iran last week, Trump has stood behind the key U.S. ally.
'Very bad decision'
The U.S. special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack on Thursday warned Hezbollah
against getting involved in the war between Iran and Israel. "I can say on
behalf of President (Donald) Trump... that would be a very, very, very bad
decision," Barrack said after his meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
The Lebanese foreign ministry said last week that it was "continuing its
contacts" to spare the country from being dragged into any conflict.
Netanyahu says Hezbollah, proxies will collapse once Iran
threat 'removed'
Naharnet/June 19, 2025
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that the entire "Shiite
axis" including Hezbollah is not responding to Israeli attacks on Iran.
"Hezbollah has not fired a single rocket," Netanyahu said, vowing to "remove"
the nuclear and ballistic missile threat posed by Iran, on the seventh day of
war between the arch foes. "If we eliminate Iran, all its proxies will
collapse," he said. "We are committed to destroying the nuclear threat, the
threat of a nuclear annihilation against Israel," Netanyahu told reporters in
the southern city of Beersheba, where a hospital was hit during an Iranian
missile attack.
"Our goal is twofold -– nuclear, ballistic missile. We're going to remove them.
We are in the process of completing the (removal of) this threat."
Targeted Strikes in Southern Lebanon
This is Beirut/June 19, 2025
While the intensity of strikes in Lebanon has subsided since the start of the
direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, military operations have
nevertheless been reported in the south of the country in recent days. On the
night of Wednesday to Thursday, an Israeli drone targeted a motorcycle in the
Kfarjoz neighborhood of Nabatiyeh, killing one person. Another was reportedly
seriously injured, according to a report from the Ministry of Public Health’s
emergency operations center. Israeli Army Arabic spokesperson, Avichay Adraee,
announced Thursday on his X account that the army had conducted a strike in the
Nabatiyeh area of southern Lebanon, killing Mohammad Ahmad Khreis, identified as
the commander of the anti-tank missile unit within the Hezbollah compound in
Shebaa. “During the ongoing conflict, Khreis was reportedly behind several
rocket launch plans targeting Israel. He was allegedly continuing to plan
attacks in southern Lebanon in violation of previous understandings between
Israel and Lebanon.” Earlier, on Wednesday afternoon, the Israeli army announced
it had carried out an operation in Barish (Tyre). “We eliminated Yassine
Ezzeddine, the Hezbollah artillery commander in the Litani sector,” said Adraee
in a previous post on X.He stated that the victim “had developed numerous plans
to launch rockets at Israel” and “was involved in efforts to rebuild Hezbollah’s
artillery forces.”Additionally, off the coast of Ras Naqoura, the Israeli army
fired flares shortly after midnight on Wednesday. Explosions were later heard in
the Tyre region, reportedly resulting from missile impacts on Israeli territory.
At dawn on Thursday, Israeli reconnaissance planes flew over the area. An
Israeli helicopter also dropped five incendiary bombs between the towns of Blida
and Aitaroun in the evening.
Israel strikes Kfarjoz, Houla, killing at least three
Naharnet/June 19, 2025
An Israeli strike on the southern town of Kfarjoz in Nabatieh killed one person
overnight, with Israel saying he was "the head of Hezbollah's anti-tank unit in
Shebaa."Media reports said another person, standing on the balcony of his house
near the strike, later died of his injuries. Later on Thursday, an Israeli drone
targeted a Renault Rapid vehicle in the southern border town of Houla, killing a
third person. Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon despite a November ceasefire
that sought to end over a year of hostilities with Hezbollah, including two
months of full-blown war.
On Wednesday, an Israeli drone fired two missiles at a house in Barish and later
targeted a motorcycle, killing one person whom Israel claimed was "the head of
Hezbollah's artillery unit in the Litani sector."According to the agreement,
Hezbollah must withdraw its fighters to the north of the Litani river, roughly
30 kilometers from the border with Israel, leaving the Lebanese Army and United
Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the area. Earlier this month,
Israel said it would continue to strike Lebanon until Hezbollah was disarmed.
The ceasefire requires Israel to fully withdraw its troops from Lebanon, but it
has kept them in five positions it deems "strategic".
Hezbollah says threats to kill Khamenei 'foolish and
reckless'
Naharnet/June 19, 2025
Hezbollah condemned Thursday Israel's threats to kill Iran's supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after an Israeli hospital was hit during an Iranian
missile attack. "Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed -- he
personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. He considers the destruction of
the state of Israel to be a goal," Israel's defense minister Israel Katz told
journalists in Holon near Tel Aviv. "Such a man can no longer be allowed to
exist."Hezbollah said the Israeli threat is "foolish and reckless" and "would
have grave consequences".It "constitutes an offence to hundreds of millions of
believers", the group added. Iraq's top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani also warned against targeting Iran's leadership and said it would have
"dire consequences on the region".Sistani, an Iranian, is the highest religious
authority for millions of Shiite Muslims in Iraq and around the world, with the
power to mobilize a huge portion of that base in Iraq. Despite his Iranian
roots, Sistani is seen as an essential figure in Iraq's recent history and has
been known for pushing back against Tehran's growing clout in the country.
Shiite Muslim clerics rallied late Wednesday, wearing military fatigues in
southern Iraq, near the Iranian border. They held Iraqi and Iranian flags and
shouted slogans condemning Israel's attack.
UK issues travel warning for Lebanon amid air travel
disruption risks
LBCI/June 19, 2025
The UK has issued a travel warning for Lebanon amid concerns over potential
disruptions to air travel in and out of Beirut due to escalating conflict
between Iran and Israel. The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO)
said there is a risk that hostilities in the region could intensify rapidly,
affecting Beirut's airport operations and posing broader security risks.
Beirut Port overhaul: Lebanon adopts advanced scanning tech
to fight smuggling
LBCI/June 19, 2025
Daily losses from smuggling and tax evasion at legal crossings and ports in
Lebanon reach $1.5 million. Authorities expect these losses to drop sharply with
the upcoming installation of advanced, internationally certified scanners. At
the Beirut Port, there are two inspection lanes: a "red lane" for goods subject
to inspection according to criteria set by Lebanese Customs and a "green lane"
where cargo often passes unchecked. Goods classified as red are moved from the
dock to a designated area for manual inspection. This is where the risk lies, as
unauthorized or prohibited goods can pass through without being listed on the
manifest. Some imported goods undergo scanning. However, the available scanners
are outdated and inspect only 40 containers daily out of the 70 entering the
port. This applies to imports. As for exports to Arab countries, all shipments
are scanned following a series of crises Lebanon faced with some countries due
to the smuggling of prohibited items. That is set to change. The Cabinet has
commissioned a private company to procure and install state-of-the-art scanners
with international specifications. These devices will be positioned directly on
the port's docks, scanning containers upon arrival—before they reach the customs
yard. The scanning system will be connected in real-time to a control room
operated by Lebanese Customs and linked to the Finance Ministry. Each scanner
will be able to inspect up to 100 containers per hour, a significant leap from
the current capacity. This will eliminate the need to prioritize certain
inspections over others, closing a loophole often exploited for illicit gains.
French shipping giant CMA CGM will remain responsible only for offloading cargo
and maintaining the scanners. In the past, scanner breakdowns were allegedly
delayed intentionally to obstruct inspections. Will the new system be able to
cross-check automatically manifests from foreign exporters with the scanned
contents? Can it reduce the reliance on human inspectors? The scanner upgrade
project was initially proposed years ago by port authorities but faced
persistent obstruction in Cabinet due to vested political interests. Now, with a
shift in political will and growing international scrutiny, the state is pushing
forward. Ownership of the scanners will revert to the Lebanese state after the
expiration of the contract with CMA CGM. Beyond security and revenue protection,
the initiative aims to improve Lebanon's global port ranking, crack down on
bribery and collusion, and introduce artificial intelligence to a system long
plagued by opacity.
Arrest Warrant in Absentia Issued Against Former Minister
Amin Salam
This is Beirut/June 19, 2025
Beirut’s First Investigative Judge, Bilal Halawi, has issued an arrest warrant
in absentia against former Economy Minister Amin Salam. The decision is based on
Articles 359 and 363 of the Lebanese Penal Code, relating to embezzlement and
misuse of public funds, forgery, and accepting bribes.On June 11, 2025, Salam
and his brother Karim were arrested at the request of the Public Prosecutor at
the Court of Cassation, Judge Jamal Hajjar, following formal complaints filed in
March 2025 by the parliamentary Economy Committee. The former minister, his
brother, and several close associates were accused of “abuse of power and
large-scale embezzlement of public funds.”
French court to rule on freeing Lebanese Georges Abdallah
Agence France Presse/June 19, 2025
A French court is set to deliver a long-awaited ruling in July on the release of
pro-Palestinian Lebanese militant Georges Ibrahim Abdallah, who has been
imprisoned for 40 years for the 1982 killings of two foreign diplomats. The
Paris appeals court, initially set to deliver its verdict in February before
postponing, will now announce its decision on July 17 after re-examining the
request on Thursday. "I told the judges, either you release him or you sentence
him to death," his lawyer Jean-Louis Chalanset told the media after the
closed-door hearing. Abdallah, 74, was sentenced to life in prison for his
involvement in the murders of U.S. military attaché Charles Robert Ray and
Israeli diplomat Yacov Barsimantov. He has been eligible for release for 25
years, but has seen multiple requests for his freedom denied. The United States,
a civil party to the case, has consistently opposed his release but Lebanese
authorities have repeatedly said he should be freed from jail. In November 2024,
a French court ordered his release conditional on Abdallah leaving France. But
France's anti-terror prosecutors, arguing that he had not changed his political
views, appealed the decision which was consequently suspended.
Abdallah has always insisted he is a "fighter" who battled for the rights of
Palestinians and not a "criminal".The appeals court said in February the
decision to postpone was prompted by the unresolved question of whether Abdallah
had proof that he had paid compensation to the plaintiffs, something he has
consistently refused to do. His lawyer said on Thursday he presented documents
showing some 16,000 euros ($18,360) in Abdallah's prison account "at the
disposal of civil parties". First detained in 1984 and convicted in 1987 over
the murders, the 74-year-old is one of the longest serving prisoners in France
-- most convicts serving life sentences are freed after less than 30 years.
Return of Displaced Syrians: Lebanon and UNHCR Polish
Action Plan
This is Beirut/June 19, 2025
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji met with Filippo Grandi, the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), to discuss the issue of
war-displaced Syrians in Lebanon and their gradual return to Syria. During his
official visit to Lebanon, Grandi – accompanied by a UNHCR delegation –
expressed full understanding of the heavy burden this crisis places on Lebanon,
and praised the government’s efforts to manage the situation. He reaffirmed the
UNHCR’s support for Beirut’s plan and emphasized the need to create favorable
conditions for the sustainable return of displaced individuals. “This is a
moment of hope, despite rising regional tensions,” he said. The ministerial
committee overseeing the Syrian displacement file has developed a new voluntary
return plan, which it intends to present to the Cabinet for approval and
implementation. The multi-phase roadmap aims to facilitate the return of a
portion of the estimated 1.4 million displaced Syrians in Lebanon – of whom
717,657 are registered with the UNHCR. Minister Rajji reiterated that the issue
of displaced Syrians remains an “absolute” national priority for Lebanon, urging
the UNHCR to enhance cooperation with local authorities, particularly regarding
registration and assistance. He stressed the importance of the UN agency’s
active involvement in implementing the government’s plan to ensure a safe and
dignified return of displaced persons to their home country. “The situation in
Syria is now more conducive to return,” Rajji said, calling for a focus on
reconstruction and reintegration. On the platform X, Grandi revealed that “over
two million Syrian refugees and displaced persons have returned home since
December,” the date marking the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. He described
this number as symbolic of “a new dynamic in the region.” However, he also noted
that 13.5 million Syrians remain displaced or in exile, both inside and outside
Syria. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned that without
improved economic and social conditions, “mass returns will not materialize.”
While the new authorities under President Ahmad al-Chareh are working to rebuild
the country, the cost of reconstruction is estimated by the UN to exceed $400
billion.
Sleeping Through the Storm: Lebanon’s Crisis of Inaction
Marc Saikali/This is Beirut/June 19, 2025
While Iran and Israel hurl drones, missiles and threats back and forth, while
diplomats scramble to respond, analysts raise alarms and psychological warfare
escalates, a small Mediterranean country keeps doing what it does best: nothing.
Lebanon, fractured and barely governed, seems oblivious to the fact that it’s
sitting on a powder keg with the fuse already lit. The world braces for a
regional explosion. In Beirut, the main concerns are whether the parliamentary
committee is on schedule and whether the last administrative appointments are a
modest success or a major one. Overhead, Iranian missiles streak through the
sky, quietly intercepted. And the government? As usual, it does nothing. And
Hezbollah? Naturally, it threatens to act. It says it will step in “when the
time is right,” insists that the “resistance” is ready, and claims that any
attack on Iran is an attack on Lebanon. Iranian officials openly suggest
Hezbollah could join the fight. Brilliant. That says everything you need to know
about the so-called autonomous decision-making of this pro-Iranian militia.
American envoy Tom Barrack, who arrived this morning in what some call the “land
of Sleeping Beauty,” warned that Hezbollah’s involvement would be a “bad
decision.” But official Lebanon keeps hoping for a fairytale ending. Their
answer? Israel must withdraw from the five hills in the south. Fine. But what if
tomorrow the Israelis move into Akkar, pushing Hezbollah beyond the Orontes
River this time? Then what? If Lebanon once again gets pulled into ruin by a
handful of diehards, what do we do? Ah yes, the state? Almost forgot. Faced with
a threat that could drag the country into chaos, it remains silent, turning a
blind eye, fully absorbed in its own failures. You’d expect that a militia
threatening total war from Lebanese soil would at least get a rebuke. But no.
Not even a raised eyebrow.
The world demands that Hezbollah disarm. Lebanese people are exhausted from
living on the edge, hostage to an agenda that isn’t theirs. Yet the government
keeps repeating its favorite mantra: dialogue. A hollow word that hides a total
lack of will to act.
As the region burns, missiles fall and the risk of all-out war becomes clearer,
Lebanon keeps extending its hand… only to be trampled on. This isn’t resilience
anymore. It’s surrender. And while global diplomacy races to avoid the point of
no return, Lebanon dozes on, lulled by the ominous sound of boots marching at
its borders.
Maybe one day it’ll wake up – if there’s anything left to govern.
Raids at Casino du Liban and OMT: Sweeping Out Parallel
Financing Networks
Tara B. Moussallem/This is Beirut/June 19/2025
It was an operation that took everyone by surprise and deserves to be loudly
applauded: Lebanese security forces, in coordination with financial judiciary
authorities, carried out raids yesterday at Casino du Liban—seizing computers
and servers—and at a branch of OMT, a money transfer company. This is a rare
assertion of authority in a country plagued by impunity, corruption, and
clientelism. Behind the lights and slot machines of the Casino lies a gray zone
that has, for years, blended dirty money, influence-peddling, and financial
balancing acts, all benefiting certain political networks. Among the names now
circulating in judicial circles are Roland Khoury, president of the Casino and
close to the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Amal Abou Zeid, former MP and
businessman, also linked to the FPM. Both are suspected of having facilitated—if
not orchestrated—large-scale parallel financing operations, particularly
benefiting political figures such as Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil.
A Parallel System to Feed the Political Machine
According to consistent judicial sources, the raids were triggered by suspicions
of illicit currency flows between the Casino’s networks, certain transfers
processed by OMT, and accounts tied to political figures currently under
international sanctions. One such figure is Gebran Bassil, leader of the FPM and
son-in-law of former President Michel Aoun. (Bassil has been under Magnitsky
sanctions since November 2020 for endemic corruption and misappropriation of
public resources.). What investigators now aim to establish is that Casino du
Liban—supposedly a semi-public, regulated enterprise—was turned into a true
pipeline for parallel financing, serving a declining political party and a
family clan that continues to pull strings from the shadows.
Roland Khoury and Amal Abou Zeid: Two Figures Serving the FPM
Appointed head of the Casino in 2017, Roland Khoury has long faced accusations
of mismanagement, favoritism in hiring, and shielding various dubious financial
practices within the establishment. His loyalty to the FPM has never been a
secret, and multiple observers have accused him of using his position to protect
the political and financial interests of his backers. As for Amal Abou Zeid—former
presidential advisor and controversial businessman—he is suspected of playing a
key role in channeling funds via shell companies and opaque money transfer
networks (notably through OMT, some of whose employees are now undergoing
intensive interrogation), with the apparent goal of financing the entire Aounist
political campaign for the 2026 legislative elections.
Is Justice Finally Standing Up?
It’s still too early to gauge the full scope of this case, but yesterday’s raids
mark a symbolic turning point: they show that part of Lebanon’s judicial and
security apparatus may finally be willing to confront the symbols of impunity.
This is not merely an investigation into illegal transfers or shadow
financing—it’s a message to those who still believe political power can shield
them from accountability for financial crimes. If Lebanon is to emerge from the
economic and moral collapse it has endured for years, initiatives like this must
become the norm rather than the exception. But to do that, the process must go
all the way: audit the accounts of the Casino and OMT, trace financial flows to
their final destinations—even if that leads directly to Rabieh or Bsalim.It’s
time for Lebanese justice to stop fearing the powerful and start serving the
citizens. Because as long as institutions like Casino du Liban remain in the
hands of corrupt political clans, the entire Lebanese state remains hostage.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 19-20/2025
Israel-Iran air war enters second week as Europe pushes diplomacy
Reuters/June 20, 2025
TEL AVIV/DUBAI/WASHINGTON: Israel and Iran’s air war entered a second week on
Friday and European officials sought to draw Tehran back to the negotiating
table after President Donald Trump said any decision on potential US involvement
would be made within two weeks. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying
it aimed to prevent its longtime enemy from developing nuclear weapons. Iran
retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. It says its nuclear program
is peaceful. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, said the Human
Rights Activists News Agency. Those killed include the military’s top echelon
and nuclear scientists. Israel has said at least two dozen Israeli civilians
have died in Iranian missile attacks. Reuters could not independently verify the
death toll from either side. Israel has targeted nuclear sites and missile
capabilities, but also has sought to shatter the government of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Western and regional officials. “Are we
targeting the downfall of the regime? That may be a result, but it’s up to the
Iranian people to rise for their freedom,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said on Thursday. Iran has said it is targeting military and
defense-related sites in Israel, but it has also hit a hospital and other
civilian sites. Israel accused Iran on Thursday of deliberately targeting
civilians through the use of cluster munitions, which disperse small bombs over
a wide area. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to
a request for comment. With neither country backing down, the foreign ministers
of Britain, France and Germany along with the European Union foreign policy
chief were due to meet in Geneva with Iran’s foreign minister to try to
de-escalate the conflict on Friday. “Now is the time to put a stop to the grave
scenes in the Middle East and prevent a regional escalation that would benefit
no one,” said British Foreign Minister David Lammy ahead of their joint meeting
with Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping both condemned
Israel and agreed that de-escalation is needed, the Kremlin said on Thursday.
The role of the United States, meanwhile, remained uncertain. On Thursday in
Washington, Lammy met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special
envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, and said they discussed a possible deal.
Witkoff has spoken with Araqchi several times since last week, sources say.
Trump, meanwhile, has alternated between threatening Tehran and urging it to
resume nuclear talks that were suspended over the conflict. Trump has mused
about striking Iran, possibly with a “bunker buster” bomb that could destroy
nuclear sites built deep underground. The White House said on Thursday Trump
would decide in the next two weeks whether to get involved in the war. That may
not be a firm deadline. Trump has commonly used “two weeks” as a time frame for
making decisions and has allowed other economic and diplomatic deadlines to
slide. With the Islamic Republic facing one of its greatest external threats
since the 1979 revolution, any direct challenge to its 46-year-long rule would
likely require some form of popular uprising. But activists involved in previous
bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a
system they hate, with their nation under attack. “How are people supposed to
pour into the streets? In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely
focused on saving themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their
pets,” said Atena Daemi, a prominent activist who spent six years in prison
before leaving Iran.
IAEA chief identifies Isfahan as Iran's planned uranium enrichment site
Francois Murphy/Reuters/June 19,
2025
VIENNA -U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi on Thursday identified
Isfahan, home to one of Iran's biggest nuclear facilities, as the location of a
uranium enrichment plant that Iran said it would soon open in retaliation for a
diplomatic push against it. The day before Israel launched its military strikes
against Iranian targets including nuclear facilities last Friday, Iran announced
it had built a new uranium enrichment facility, which it would soon equip and
bring online. Tehran did not provide details such as the plant's location.
Iran's announcement was part of its retaliation against a resolution passed by
the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board of Governors declaring
Tehran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations over issues including its
failure to credibly explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Had it
gone online, the new enrichment plant would have been the fourth in operation in
Iran. But Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities destroyed one of those
plants and put another out of action by killing its power supply, the IAEA has
said."There was an announcement, quite coincidentally, on the eve of the start
of the military operation by Israel of a new enrichment facility in Isfahan,
precisely, that we were going to be inspecting immediately, but this inspection
had to be postponed, we hope, because of the start of the military operation,"
Grossi said. He did not say where exactly in Isfahan the planned plant was, but
he said the nuclear complex there is "huge".The IAEA has previously reported
that Israeli military strikes on Friday damaged four buildings at Isfahan,
including the Uranium Conversion Facility that transforms "yellowcake" uranium
into the uranium hexafluoride feedstock for centrifuges so that it can be
enriched. Grossi told the BBC on Monday that the "underground spaces" at Isfahan
did not seem to have been affected. Officials say those spaces are also where
much of Iran's most highly enriched uranium stock has been stored. The IAEA has
not, however, been able to carry out any inspections since the strikes.
Iran held direct talks with US amid intensifying conflict with Israel, diplomats
say
Parisa Hafezi and John
Irish/Reuters/June 19, 2025
DUBAI/CALGARY, Canada -U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign
Minister Abbas Araqchi have spoken by phone several times since Israel began its
strikes on Iran last week, in a bid to find a diplomatic end to the crisis,
three diplomats told Reuters. According to the diplomats, who asked not to be
identified due to the sensitivity of the matter, Araqchi said Tehran would not
return to negotiations unless Israel stopped the attacks, which began on June
13.They said the talks included a brief discussion of a U.S. proposal given to
Iran at the end of May that aims to create a regional consortium that would
enrich uranium outside of Iran, an offer Tehran has so far rejected. U.S. and
Iranians officials did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment
on the matter. This week's phone discussions were the most substantive direct
talks since the two began negotiations in April. On those occasions, in Oman and
Italy, the two men exchanged brief words when they encountered each other after
indirect talks were held. A regional diplomat close to Tehran said Araqchi had
told Witkoff that Tehran "could show flexibility in the nuclear issue" if
Washington pressured Israel to end the war. A European diplomat said: "Araqchi
told Witkoff Iran was ready to come back to nuclear talks, but it could not if
Israel continued its bombing." Other than brief encounters after five rounds of
indirect talks since April to discuss Iran's decades-old nuclear dispute,
Araqchi and Witkoff had not previously held direct contacts. A second regional
diplomat who spoke to Reuters said "the (first) call was initiated by
Washington, which also proposed a new offer" to overcome the deadlock over
clashing red lines.
URANIUM ENRICHMENT
U.S. President Donald Trump wants Tehran to end uranium enrichment on its soil,
while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Tehran's right to
enrichment is non-negotiable. Trump has been keeping his cards close to his
chest over whether he will order U.S. forces to join Israel's bombing campaign
that it says aims to destroy Iran's nuclear programme and ballistic
capabilities. But Trump offered a glimmer of hope that diplomacy could resume,
saying Iranian officials wanted to come to Washington for a meeting. He rebuffed
President Emmanuel Macron earlier this week when the French leader said Trump
had told G7 leaders at a summit in Canada that the United States had made an
offer to get a ceasefire and then kickstart broader discussions. European
officials have been coordinating with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who
was also at the G7 summit. Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3 and
party to a 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Iran, held a ministerial
call with Araqchi on Sunday. The three countries and the European Union are set
to meet him in Geneva on Friday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil
Baghaei and an EU official said. Earlier in the week, both Rubio and Araqchi
told the Europeans in separate talks about a possible diplomatic initiative,
three diplomats said. A senior European diplomat said what emerged at the G7 was
that Trump wanted the operations to end very quickly and that he wanted the
Iranians to talk to him, while making clear that they had to accept his demands
if they wanted the war to end. Given the Israeli strikes and Trump's rhetoric,
diplomats said Iran was in no position to hold public talks with the U.S., but
that a meeting with the Europeans as a link to try and advance diplomacy was
deemed more realistic for Tehran.
Iran hits hospital, Israel strikes nuclear facilities as Trump says decision
within 2 weeks
Agencies/June 19, 2025
DUBAI/JERUSALEM: US President Donald Trump said Thursday he will decide whether
to join Israel's strikes on Iran within the next two weeks as there is still a
"substantial" chance of negotiations to end the conflict.
"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or
may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether
or not to go within the next two weeks," Trump said in the statement.
Iran and European diplomats said nuclear talks will be held in Geneva on Friday,
bringing together top diplomats from Britain, France, Germany and the European
Union as well as Tehran's Abbas Araghchi. A hospital in southern Israel was hit
as Iran fired a barrage of “dozens” of missiles, officials said Thursday, with
impacts also reported in two Israeli towns close to commercial hub Tel Aviv. The
Soroka Hospital in Beersheba was left in flames, and its director Shlomi Codish
said 40 people had sustained injuries.
“Several wards were completely demolished and there is extensive damage across
the entire hospital,” he said.Iran said the main target of its missile attack
was not the hospital but a nearby military and intelligence base. The
International Committee of the Red Cross said “hospitals must be respected and
protected,” citing international law.
UN rights chief Volker Turk urged restraint from both Iran and Israel, saying it
is “appalling to see how civilians are treated as collateral damage in the
conduct of hostilities.” Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said Tehran would pay a “heavy price.”Speaking in Beersheba after the hospital
strike, Netanyahu said Israel was “committed to destroying... the threat of a
nuclear annihilation” as well as Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. His
defense minister, Israel Katz, said Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
“can no longer be allowed to exist.”“Khamenei openly declares that he wants
Israel destroyed — he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals,” Katz
told reporters. “Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist.”President Donald
Trump said Tuesday that the United States was aware of Khamenei’s location but
would not kill him “for now.”Iraq’s top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani warned that any targeting of Iran’s “supreme religious and political
leadership” would have “dire consequences on the region.” Trump said Wednesday
he was considering whether to join Israel’s strikes, and that Iran had reached
out seeking negotiations on ending the conflict.
“I may do it, I may not do it,” Trump told reporters. “I can tell you this, that
Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.”
Iran and European diplomats said nuclear talks will be held in Geneva on Friday,
bringing together top diplomats from Britain, France, Germany and the European
Union as well as Tehran’s Abbas Araghchi. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump
has told aides he has approved attack plans but is holding off to see if Iran
will give up its nuclear program.
A key Iranian government body, the Guardian Council, warned against any US
involvement in the war, threatening a “harsh response” if “the criminal American
government and its stupid president... take action against Islamic Iran.”
Tehran ally Moscow said any US military action “would be an extremely dangerous
step,” while pro-Iran groups in Iraq threatened retaliatory attacks.
A senior US diplomat, Tom Barrack, warned the Iran-backed Lebanese group
Hezbollah against getting involved in the war, which he said in Beirut “would be
a very, very, very bad decision.”The Israeli military said it struck an
“inactive nuclear reactor” in Arak in overnight raids on Iran that also saw the
uranium enrichment facility in Natanz targeted again.
It said the strike on the Arak site was carried out “to prevent the reactor from
being restored.”The military said its fighter jets hit “dozens” of sites in the
overnight raids.
Iranian police announced the arrest on Thursday of 24 people accused of spying
for Israel and “trying to disturb public opinion and to tarnish and destroy the
image of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” according to a
statement carried by Tasnim news agency.
Authorities in both Israel and Iran have announced arrests for espionage and
other charges since the war began on Friday.
Trump: 'substantial chance' of negotiations to end conflict
US President Donald Trump said he will decide whether to join Israel's strikes
on Iran within the next two weeks as there is still a "substantial" chance of
negotiations to end the conflict. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt
read out a message from Trump, saying there had been "a lot of speculation"
about whether the United States would be "directly involved" in the conflict.
"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or
may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether
or not to go within the next two weeks," Trump said in the statement.
The announcement could lower the temperature and give space for diplomacy.
US and Iran keep discussion channels open, according to reports
US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi have
spoken by phone several times since Israel began its strikes on Iran last week,
in a bid to find a diplomatic end to the crisis, Reuters reported.
According to three diplomats, Araqchi said Tehran would not return to
negotiations unless Israel stopped the attacks.
They said the talks included a brief discussion of a US proposal given to Iran
at the end of May that aims to create a regional consortium that would enrich
uranium outside of Iran, an offer Tehran has so far rejected. Iran's Atomic
Energy Organization says no threat from Arak facility . Iran's Atomic Energy
Organization said there was no threat or harm to resident in the vicinity of the
Arak heavy water nuclear reactor, which was hit by Israeli airstrikes.
The organizaton said there were also no casualties after the site was evacuated
before the strikes. The Israeli military said it earlier targeted the site, also
known as Khondab, which includes a partially-built heavy-water research reactor.
Heavy-water reactors produce plutonium, which, like enriched uranium, can be
used to make the core of an atom bomb. It was the latest attacks on Iran's
nuclear facilities. Israel also said it had struck Iran's Natanz and Isfahan
nuclear sites.
China urges Israel to stop fighting
Guo Jiakun, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said China strongly called on
all parties involved in the conflict, especially Israel, to put the interests of
the region's people first, and to immediately cease fire and stop fighting. He
added that the current situation in the Middle East region was “tense and
sensitive,” and at risk of “getting out of control.” Russia’s Putin dodges
active involvement in Iran-Israel war
President Vladimir Putin on Thursday refused to discuss the possibility that
Israel and the United States would kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei and said the Iranian people were consolidating around the leadership in
Tehran.
Israel Katz accused Iran’s leader of “some of the most serious war crimes.”
(FILE/AFP)
Israeli minister accuses Iran’s Khamenei of war crimes after hospital strike
Israel’s defense minister said Thursday Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei would be “held accountable” after an Iranian strike on a hospital in
Israel, adding he had ordered the army to “intensify strikes” on the Islamic
republic.
“These are some of the most serious war crimes - and Khamenei will be held
accountable for his actions,” Israel Katz said, adding that he and the prime
minister ordered the military “to intensify strikes against strategic targets in
Iran and against the power infrastructure in Tehran, in order to eliminate the
threats to the state of Israel and to shake the Ayatollahs’ regime”.
Iranian official warns US against involvement in Israel-Iran conflict
Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned against any direct US involvement in the
conflict between Israel and Iran, saying Iran had “all the necessary options on
the table,” in comments reported by Iranian state media on Thursday.At least 47
injured in Israel after Iran missile attack: rescuers. Israel’s Magen David Adom
rescue service said Thursday that at least 47 people were injured in Iran’s
latest missile strikes, updating an earlier toll and reporting 18 more injured
“while running to shelter.”Three people are in serious condition, and two are in
moderate condition, an MDA spokesperson said in as statement, adding that “an
additional 42 people sustained minor injuries from shrapnel and blast trauma,
and 18 civilians were injured while running to shelter.”
Fleeing Tehran
Arezou, a 31-year-old Tehran resident, told Reuters by phone that she had made
it out of the city to the nearby resort town of Lavasan. “My friend’s house in
Tehran was attacked and her brother was injured. They are civilians,” she said.
“Why are we paying the price for the regime’s decision to pursue a nuclear
program?” In Israel, sirens rang out anew at dusk on Wednesday warning of
further incoming Iranian missiles. A motorist was injured by missile debris,
Israeli medics said. The army later advised civilians they could leave protected
areas, signalling the threat had passed. At Ramat Gan train station east of Tel
Aviv, people were lying on city-supplied mattresses or sitting in the odd
camping chair, with plastic water bottles strewn about. “I feel scared,
overwhelmed. Especially because I live in a densely populated area that Iran
seems to be targeting, and our city has very old buildings, without shelters and
safe spaces,” said Tamar Weiss, clutching her four-month-old daughter. Iran has
reported at least 224 deaths in Israeli attacks, mostly civilians, but has not
updated that toll for days. Since Friday, Iran has fired around 400 missiles at
Israel, some 40 of which have pierced air defenses, killing 24 people, all of
them civilians, according to Israeli authorities.
Leverage
Iran has been exploring options for leverage, including veiled threats to hit
the global oil market by restricting access to the Gulf through the Strait of
Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping artery for oil. Inside Iran,
authorities are intent on preventing panic and shortages. Fewer images of
destruction have been allowed to circulate than in the early days of the
bombing, when state media showed pictures of explosions, fires and flattened
apartments. A ban on filming by the public has been imposed. The communications
ministry said on Wednesday that temporary restrictions on Internet access would
be imposed to help prevent “the enemy from threatening citizens’ lives and
property.”Iran’s ability to hit back hard at Israel through strikes by proxy
militia close to Israeli borders has been limited by the devastating blows
Israel has dealt to Tehran’s regional allies — Hamas and Hezbollah — in
conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon since 2023.
Iran hits hospital, Israel
strikes nuclear facilities as Trump says decision within 2 weeks
Agencies/June 19, 2025
DUBAI/JERUSALEM: US President Donald Trump said Thursday he will decide whether
to join Israel's strikes on Iran within the next two weeks as there is still a
"substantial" chance of negotiations to end the conflict.
"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or
may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether
or not to go within the next two weeks," Trump said in the statement.
Iran and European diplomats said nuclear talks will be held in Geneva on Friday,
bringing together top diplomats from Britain, France, Germany and the European
Union as well as Tehran's Abbas Araghchi. A hospital in southern Israel was hit
as Iran fired a barrage of “dozens” of missiles, officials said Thursday, with
impacts also reported in two Israeli towns close to commercial hub Tel Aviv. The
Soroka Hospital in Beersheba was left in flames, and its director Shlomi Codish
said 40 people had sustained injuries.
“Several wards were completely demolished and there is extensive damage across
the entire hospital,” he said.Iran said the main target of its missile attack
was not the hospital but a nearby military and intelligence base. The
International Committee of the Red Cross said “hospitals must be respected and
protected,” citing international law.
UN rights chief Volker Turk urged restraint from both Iran and Israel, saying it
is “appalling to see how civilians are treated as collateral damage in the
conduct of hostilities.” Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said Tehran would pay a “heavy price.”Speaking in Beersheba after the hospital
strike, Netanyahu said Israel was “committed to destroying... the threat of a
nuclear annihilation” as well as Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. His
defense minister, Israel Katz, said Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
“can no longer be allowed to exist.”“Khamenei openly declares that he wants
Israel destroyed — he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals,” Katz
told reporters. “Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist.”President Donald
Trump said Tuesday that the United States was aware of Khamenei’s location but
would not kill him “for now.”Iraq’s top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani warned that any targeting of Iran’s “supreme religious and political
leadership” would have “dire consequences on the region.” Trump said Wednesday
he was considering whether to join Israel’s strikes, and that Iran had reached
out seeking negotiations on ending the conflict.
“I may do it, I may not do it,” Trump told reporters. “I can tell you this, that
Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.”
Iran and European diplomats said nuclear talks will be held in Geneva on Friday,
bringing together top diplomats from Britain, France, Germany and the European
Union as well as Tehran’s Abbas Araghchi. The Wall Street Journal reported Trump
has told aides he has approved attack plans but is holding off to see if Iran
will give up its nuclear program.
A key Iranian government body, the Guardian Council, warned against any US
involvement in the war, threatening a “harsh response” if “the criminal American
government and its stupid president... take action against Islamic Iran.”
Tehran ally Moscow said any US military action “would be an extremely dangerous
step,” while pro-Iran groups in Iraq threatened retaliatory attacks.
A senior US diplomat, Tom Barrack, warned the Iran-backed Lebanese group
Hezbollah against getting involved in the war, which he said in Beirut “would be
a very, very, very bad decision.”The Israeli military said it struck an
“inactive nuclear reactor” in Arak in overnight raids on Iran that also saw the
uranium enrichment facility in Natanz targeted again.
It said the strike on the Arak site was carried out “to prevent the reactor from
being restored.”The military said its fighter jets hit “dozens” of sites in the
overnight raids.
Iranian police announced the arrest on Thursday of 24 people accused of spying
for Israel and “trying to disturb public opinion and to tarnish and destroy the
image of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” according to a
statement carried by Tasnim news agency.
Authorities in both Israel and Iran have announced arrests for espionage and
other charges since the war began on Friday.
Trump: 'substantial chance' of negotiations to end conflict
US President Donald Trump said he will decide whether to join Israel's strikes
on Iran within the next two weeks as there is still a "substantial" chance of
negotiations to end the conflict. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt
read out a message from Trump, saying there had been "a lot of speculation"
about whether the United States would be "directly involved" in the conflict.
"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or
may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether
or not to go within the next two weeks," Trump said in the statement.
The announcement could lower the temperature and give space for diplomacy.
US and Iran keep discussion channels open, according to reports
US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi have
spoken by phone several times since Israel began its strikes on Iran last week,
in a bid to find a diplomatic end to the crisis, Reuters reported.
According to three diplomats, Araqchi said Tehran would not return to
negotiations unless Israel stopped the attacks. They said the talks included a
brief discussion of a US proposal given to Iran at the end of May that aims to
create a regional consortium that would enrich uranium outside of Iran, an offer
Tehran has so far rejected. Iran's Atomic Energy Organization says no threat
from Arak facility . Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said there was no threat
or harm to resident in the vicinity of the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor,
which was hit by Israeli airstrikes.
The organizaton said there were also no casualties after the site was evacuated
before the strikes. The Israeli military said it earlier targeted the site, also
known as Khondab, which includes a partially-built heavy-water research reactor.
Heavy-water reactors produce plutonium, which, like enriched uranium, can be
used to make the core of an atom bomb. It was the latest attacks on Iran's
nuclear facilities. Israel also said it had struck Iran's Natanz and Isfahan
nuclear sites.
China urges Israel to stop fighting
Guo Jiakun, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said China strongly called on
all parties involved in the conflict, especially Israel, to put the interests of
the region's people first, and to immediately cease fire and stop fighting. He
added that the current situation in the Middle East region was “tense and
sensitive,” and at risk of “getting out of control.” Russia’s Putin dodges
active involvement in Iran-Israel war
President Vladimir Putin on Thursday refused to discuss the possibility that
Israel and the United States would kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei and said the Iranian people were consolidating around the leadership in
Tehran.
Israel Katz accused Iran’s leader of “some of the most serious war crimes.”
(FILE/AFP)
Israeli minister accuses Iran’s Khamenei of war crimes after hospital strike
Israel’s defense minister said Thursday Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei would be “held accountable” after an Iranian strike on a hospital in
Israel, adding he had ordered the army to “intensify strikes” on the Islamic
republic.
“These are some of the most serious war crimes - and Khamenei will be held
accountable for his actions,” Israel Katz said, adding that he and the prime
minister ordered the military “to intensify strikes against strategic targets in
Iran and against the power infrastructure in Tehran, in order to eliminate the
threats to the state of Israel and to shake the Ayatollahs’ regime”.
Iranian official warns US against involvement in Israel-Iran conflict
Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned against any direct US involvement in the
conflict between Israel and Iran, saying Iran had “all the necessary options on
the table,” in comments reported by Iranian state media on Thursday.At least 47
injured in Israel after Iran missile attack: rescuers. Israel’s Magen David Adom
rescue service said Thursday that at least 47 people were injured in Iran’s
latest missile strikes, updating an earlier toll and reporting 18 more injured
“while running to shelter.”Three people are in serious condition, and two are in
moderate condition, an MDA spokesperson said in as statement, adding that “an
additional 42 people sustained minor injuries from shrapnel and blast trauma,
and 18 civilians were injured while running to shelter.”
Fleeing Tehran
Arezou, a 31-year-old Tehran resident, told Reuters by phone that she had made
it out of the city to the nearby resort town of Lavasan. “My friend’s house in
Tehran was attacked and her brother was injured. They are civilians,” she said.
“Why are we paying the price for the regime’s decision to pursue a nuclear
program?” In Israel, sirens rang out anew at dusk on Wednesday warning of
further incoming Iranian missiles. A motorist was injured by missile debris,
Israeli medics said. The army later advised civilians they could leave protected
areas, signalling the threat had passed. At Ramat Gan train station east of Tel
Aviv, people were lying on city-supplied mattresses or sitting in the odd
camping chair, with plastic water bottles strewn about. “I feel scared,
overwhelmed. Especially because I live in a densely populated area that Iran
seems to be targeting, and our city has very old buildings, without shelters and
safe spaces,” said Tamar Weiss, clutching her four-month-old daughter. Iran has
reported at least 224 deaths in Israeli attacks, mostly civilians, but has not
updated that toll for days. Since Friday, Iran has fired around 400 missiles at
Israel, some 40 of which have pierced air defenses, killing 24 people, all of
them civilians, according to Israeli authorities.
Leverage
Iran has been exploring options for leverage, including veiled threats to hit
the global oil market by restricting access to the Gulf through the Strait of
Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping artery for oil. Inside Iran,
authorities are intent on preventing panic and shortages. Fewer images of
destruction have been allowed to circulate than in the early days of the
bombing, when state media showed pictures of explosions, fires and flattened
apartments. A ban on filming by the public has been imposed. The communications
ministry said on Wednesday that temporary restrictions on Internet access would
be imposed to help prevent “the enemy from threatening citizens’ lives and
property.”Iran’s ability to hit back hard at Israel through strikes by proxy
militia close to Israeli borders has been limited by the devastating blows
Israel has dealt to Tehran’s regional allies — Hamas and Hezbollah — in
conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon since 2023.
As calls for regime change in
Iran grow, here are some facts
CBC/June 19, 2025
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz made headlines this week — not for his opinion on whether
the war between Israel and Iran should result in regime change in Iran (he says
yes), but for what he didn't know about the country. In an interview with
right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson, Cruz was asked what the population of
Iran is. He didn't know, not even roughly. Carlson replied with incredulity,
"You're a senator who's calling for the overthrow of a government and you don't
know anything about the country."Cruz denied he knew nothing, but said, "I don't
sit around memorizing population tables."Here are some basic facts about Iran.
Population
Carlson said the population is 92 million. That is basically correct. According
to the UN, the population of Iran as of 2024 was 91.5 million. The capital,
Tehran, has a population of nearly 10 million. It's a large, dense urban area
that U.S. President Donald Trump this week said people should "evacuate" if they
want to avoid Israeli missiles. There have indeed been traffic jams of cars
trying to leave the city since Israel's attacks began last Friday, but there are
no reliable estimates on how many people have actually fled. Some said the
congestion was so bad, they gave up and returned to their homes in Tehran.
Ethnic makeup and religion
Iran is predominantly Persian, but it is not a monoculture. There are
significant numbers of Turkic and Arab people, as well as Kurds, Baloch, Lurs
and other smaller minorities, according to Encyclopedia Britannica. The vast
majority of Iranians are Shia Muslim, which is the state religion. The official
language of the country is Persian Farsi.
Political leadership
The official name of the country is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which
underlines the fact that it is a theocracy, governed by a combination of
religious and secular laws. The man is charge is the supreme leader, a title
that reflects his power. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has held that position since
1989 and under the constitution, he directs all domestic and foreign policy of
the country, controls the armed forces, appoints judges, and is the head of a
powerful committee that oversees parliament. The president, who is directly
elected by the people but is subordinate to the supreme leader, is Masoud
Pezeshkian. He won last July's election, which happened early because the
previous president was killed in a helicopter crash in May 2024. Presidential
candidates must be vetted and approved in advance by a council led by the
supreme leader. It's not always clear why some candidates are rejected. Energy
Iran is the ninth biggest producer of oil in the world, making about four per
cent of global supply. Until 2018, Iran was exporting more than two million
barrels per day to other countries. But that year, Trump (in his first
presidential term) cancelled an agreement that allowed Iran to export oil in
exchange for limits on its nuclear program. The U.S. then reimposed harsh
sanctions, which severely restricted Iran's ability to export oil. To this day,
the U.S. threatens to punish anyone doing business with Iran. But according to
an investigation by the Economist last fall, Iran has been increasingly avoiding
U.S. detection, and now exports roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day,
mostly to China.
Media freedom?
In short, there is none. Reporters Without Borders says Iran ranks 176th out of
180 countries for for press freedom. Iranian media are controlled by the
government, so Iranians have few if any sources of independent information
inside the country. Reporters Without Borders says the supreme leader can and
does frequently order the arrest of journalists, who are often subjected to
lengthy prison sentences or even the death penalty. It says Iran is one of the
world's biggest jailers of journalists.
Iran's nuclear capabilities
Iran has always said its nuclear program is only for civilian electricity
production. Last week, however, the International Atomic Energy Agency said its
inspectors were unable to determine whether Iran's nuclear programme was
"exclusively peaceful." But it also said it has "no credible indication" of an
active, co-ordinated weapons program either. At least until Israel's attacks,
Iran was enriching uranium to up to 60 per cent purity and had enough material
at that level for nine nuclear weapons if enriched further, according to a
theoretical IAEA yardstick.That means Iran's so-called "breakout time" — the
time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb —
was close to zero, likely a matter of days or little more than a week, analysts
say. Israel has warned for decades that Iran may be weeks or months away from
developing a nuclear bomb, although that has not yet happened.
Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of
protests
Parisa Hafezi, writing by Angus
McDowall, editing by Andrew Heavens/Reuters/, June 19, 2025
DUBAI -Iran's fragmented opposition groups think their moment may be close at
hand, but activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling
to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under
attack. Exiled opponents of the Islamic Republic, themselves deeply divided, are
urging street protests. In the borderlands, Kurdish and Baluchi separatist
groups look poised to rise up, with Israeli strikes pummelling Iran's security
apparatus. While the Islamic Republic looks weaker than at nearly any point
since soon after the 1979 revolution, any direct challenge to its 46-year rule
would likely require some form of popular uprising. Whether such an uprising is
likely - or imminent - is a matter of debate. The late shah's son, U.S.-based
Reza Pahlavi, said in media interviews this week he wants to lead a political
transition, proclaiming it the best chance to topple the Islamic Republic in
four decades and saying "this is our moment in history". Triggering regime
change is certainly one war goal for Israel, with Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu addressing Iranians to say "we are also clearing the path for you to
achieve your freedom". Within a ruling system long adept at quashing public
displays of dissent, there are signs it is readying for protests. Mohammad Amin,
a member of the Basij militia that is often deployed against protesters, said
his unit in Qom had been put on alert to root out Israeli spies and protect the
Islamic Republic. However, while the strikes have targeted a security hierarchy
that crushed previous bouts of protest, they have also caused great fear and
disruption for ordinary people - and anger at both Iranian authorities and
Israel, the activists said. "How are people supposed to pour into the streets?
In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely focused on saving
themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their pets," said Atena
Daemi, a prominent activist who spent six years in prison before leaving Iran.
MASS PROTESTS
Daemi's concerns were also voiced by Iran's most prominent activist, Nobel Peace
Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, in a social media post. Responding to an Israeli
demand for people to evacuate parts of Tehran, she posted: "Do not destroy my
city."Two other activists Reuters spoke to in Iran, who were among the hundreds
of thousands involved in mass protests two years ago after the death in custody
of Mahsa Amini, said they also had no plans to demonstrate yet. "After the
strikes end we will raise our voices because this regime is responsible for the
war," said one, a university student in Shiraz, who asked to remain anonymous
for fear of reprisals. Another, who had lost her university place and been
jailed for five months after the 2022 protests and who also requested anonymity,
said she believed in regime change in Iran but that it was not time to take to
the streets. She and her friends were not planning to stage or join rallies, she
said, and dismissed calls from abroad for protests. "Israel and those so-called
opposition leaders abroad only think about their own benefits," she said. Apart
from Pahlavi's monarchists, the main opposition faction outside Iran is the
People's Mujahideen Organisation, also known as the MEK or MKO. A revolutionary
faction in the 1970s, it lost a power struggle after the shah was toppled. Many
Iranians have not forgiven it for then siding with Iraq during the stalemated
war of 1980-88 and rights groups have accused it of abuses at its camps and of
cult-like behaviour, both of which it denies.
The Mujahideen are the main force behind the National Council of Resistance of
Iran, which like Pahlavi has cultivated close ties with some Western
politicians. At a Paris forum this week, the council's leader Maryam Rajavi
reiterated her opposition to any return of the monarchy, saying "neither the
shah nor the mullahs".How far opposition groups outside Iran enjoy any support
inside the country is uncertain. While there is fond nostalgia among some
Iranians for the period before the revolution, it is an era that most are too
young to remember. Within Iran, the successive rounds of national protests have
also focused around differing issues. In 2009, demonstrators flooded the streets
over what they saw as a stolen presidential election. In 2017, protests focused
on falling living standards. And in 2022 women's rights were the trigger. Mir-Hossein
Mousavi, the election candidate protesters said had been cheated in 2009, has
been under house arrest for years and is now 83. His policy was to reform the
Islamic Republic rather than replace it - the goal of many protesters in later
movements. For opponents of the Islamic Republic inside Iran, those unanswered
questions of whether or when to stage protests, what agenda to pursue, or which
leader to follow are only likely to grow more pressing as Israel's airstrikes
continue.
Israel wants a 'hopeful'
post-conflict Middle East reality and resolute relations with EU
Sasha Vakulina/Euronews/June 19, 2025
In an extended interview with Euronews on Thursday, Israel’s ambassador to the
EU and NATO Haim Regev said Israel is in a “tough war with Iran” not just to
destroy its nuclear programme and missiles, but also to defend Europe, to save
lives in Ukraine, and to create a space for opportunity and new hope in the
Middle East. But Regev also made it bluntly clear that Israel “is not
negotiating with anybody on the Iran and Gaza threats”, when asked about a reset
with the EU over Iran following the convulsions of the Gaza crisis.“We are now
doing what is good for the state of Israel, removing the nuclear and missile
threat and also on the other hand releasing the hostages from Gaza and
eliminating the capability of Hamas to stay there," the ambassador expressed
Israel’s position in its ongoing dialogue with Brussels. "So it's not a matter
of let's do and let's negotiate and give you that and get that. This is not the
case here,” Regev said. Regev said Israel took action against Iran because it
did not have a choice, “to remove a direct threat to the state of Israel”,
addressing full frontal the fact that diplomacy, agreements and sanctions failed
to work. When asked about regime change in Iran, the Israeli ambassador chose to
underline that Israel’s offensive in Iran is “exceeding the original military
plan, getting close to achieve all goals for this war”. As a result, Israel has
the capability to act on multiple fronts to “remove the nuclear and missile
threat from Iran and the terror threat in Gaza,” according to Regev. But the
effects of the decisive action against Iran go beyond the Middle East, Israel's
top diplomat said, underlining that it is also set to protect Europe because
“Iran poses a threat also to Europe.”“When people ask me, why not to solve it
with diplomacy, I ask why does Iran need a 4,000-kilometre missile to reach
Brussels and other places? For what do they need it? For what? Is there any
threat that Europe poses to Iran militarily? Why is Iran developing this
missile? Why is Iran promoting terror? Why is Iran supporting Russia,” Regev
asked.
Following up with a strong, unequivocal statement for Israel, the ambassador
said that “targetting Iranian missile facilities is saving Ukrainian lives, by
harming Iran’s ability to supply missiles and drones to Russia, contributing or
diminishing their capability to harm Ukrainians through Russia because Iran is
one of the big supporters of Russia’s war with Ukraine.”When asked about
Moscow’s offer to mediate the Iran-Israel conflict, the ambassador dismissed the
idea swiftly by saying “right now we are not interviewing leaders for who is
going to be the mediator.”
'There is hope for the people of the region'
Through all these developments, according to Regev, Israel sees this reality
taking shape as “an opportunity”, due to what he calls “our success”. “For the
first time in years, there is a hope for the people of the region," he said. In
Israel’s view, he explained, radical groups such as “the Mullahs in Iran, the
Houthis in Yemen, Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon” controlled the regimes
in countries surrounding Israel. “The idea was let's speak with them,
international community, let's try to reach an agreement, let's start to do
something, let’s start to appease them. It didn't work."
"For the first time in a decade there is a hope for the people there, because
see what's happening in Lebanon, see what’s happening in Syria. And I hope that
we'll see it in Iran. It's thanks to the Israeli operation on the ground,” said
the Israeli ambassador, outlining his country’s future Middle East policy
vision.
“And maybe, not maybe, I'm sure that for the long run it will improve the
situation on the ground for the people of the region. For the people of Israel,
of course, but also the people in the region,” he said. But, he stressed, Israel
“is paying a price for that, we understand that this is something that we need
to do once and for all, whatever price we will pay. This is right now an
opportunity that we cannot stop in the middle,” he expressed the current Israeli
decisive mindset. Israel now sees any future diplomacy in a different paradigm,
contrary to the formats that attempted to contain Iran’s nuclear programme over
the last years. “When Israel has removed most of the threat, we expect Europe
and the international community will step in and verify that Iran is not going
back to be a bad player,” he specified.
No interest in 'a large-scale war', Regev says
Since Israel believes that the previous diplomacy formats failed leading to the
current crisis, the ambassador underlined again and again throughout the
interview the need for Europe and the international community to initiate a new
framework in which “diplomacy will play a role, but this time will be more
concrete, practical with the specific outcomes.” “Israel does not have any
interest to go to a large-scale war and I'm not sure that also Iran is
interested in that or their regime. So the best thing is to keep pressing Iran,
put a strong stand by the international community and Europe, warning Iran."
"They need to understand that nobody is standing with them, and there will be
consequences for them to go for a larger scale. So I think it also depends on
how the international community in Europe will react to this threat. Directly
towards Iran,” the Israeli ambassador presented his government’s view of the
Middle East’s post-war reality.
EU to influence Iran nuclear talks from sidelines in Geneva
After latest strike on Arak, how did Israel's attacks impact Iran's nuclear
programme? Asked if negotiations can yield results now, the ambassador answered
briefly: “We are right now focusing on achieving the goal of our military
operation.”
“But it needs to be followed by strong measures by the international community,
including Europe. This time it should be strict. No nuclear, no missiles."
"Without any loopholes or without any trying and attempts to overcome this
sanction,” Regev outlined Israel’s position on any future negotiation, “when the
war is over."Israel’s ambassador to the EU chose to be equally clear and firm
about his government’s current interactions with the European Union on the
crisis with Iran, saying “we hear different tones, but at the end of the road we
see and we feel the support.” The Israeli government has “a continuous and
intensive interaction” with the top EU institutions in Brussels, but “of course
it is complicated when it comes to have one position in the Union composed of 27
member states.”When asked if he perceives a reset over Iran after the political
reactions over the Gaza crisis, Regev said, “It depends on who you ask, it's the
honest answer."
“There is a war right now and Israel is actually leading this war against Iran,
that this is the war also for the benefit, for the long run of Europe. So this
is not the time right now to examine or to push things or to try to put
obstacles in the Israel-EU relations." "This is definitely not the time or the
day after we got hit by rockets, with many dozens of civilians injured and
killed. Right now it's time to focus on this war with Iran and this is what we
expect that the EU will do,” Regev stated. But still, he chose to make it clear
that the “operation in Gaza is not related to Israel’s relation with the EU, but
it is related to what is happening on the ground” even if “there is a group that
pushes for reviewing and keeps putting the issue of Gaza on the table, while
there are other groups that understand that this is not the time.”“And this is
what we try to do, to push more for the group and the actors that understand
that this is not the time right now,” the ambassador seemed to urge the
pro-Israel voices to speak up. “There are still 53 hostages there, and they must
be released before if we want to end this war. Second, as long as Hamas is
there, controlling Gaza, we don't want to see them the day after.""So we want
this war to end, like everybody. But we want the hostages back and we want to
see that Hamas does not have any control. It's not only related to our relation
with the EU, and we try as much as we can to explain this line,” Regev
concluded.
Xi Shows No Sign of
Rescuing Iran as Trump Ramps Up Pressure
Bloomberg News/June 19, 2025
(Bloomberg) -- China was quick to condemn Israel after its assault against Iran.
Yet President Xi Jinping has shown no sign of rushing to provide weapons and
other support that would help Tehran face its most critical military test in
decades. Beijing has repeatedly issued warnings against escalation, calling
again on Thursday for the US and other nations to embrace dialogue and “prevent
the regional situation from sliding into the abyss.” Despite that, China has yet
to offer any material support to Iran beyond continuing its normal trading
relationship, an approach it also took with Russia. While Xi’s government has
provided diplomatic support for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and shipped
dual-use goods to Moscow, China has also been careful not to directly provide
weapons in order to avoid US sanctions. Beijing similarly urged de-escalation
after its “ironclad friend” Pakistan and India engaged in their worst military
confrontation in half a century. “China may be offering economic relief and
rhetorical support to Iran, but actual military intervention is not anywhere
near the table yet,” said Wen-Ti Sung, nonresident fellow with the Atlantic
Council’s Global China Hub. “China does not want to risk getting entrapped by
Iran’s war with an Israel that has the Trump administration behind it.”While the
US has a history of becoming embroiled in protracted wars far from home, China’s
reluctance to get entangled in foreign conflicts is a hallmark of Xi’s foreign
policy. That principle of non-interference has allowed Beijing to distinguish
itself from Washington in the Global South, where it has pursued ties primarily
by offering loans and development, while refraining from calls for political
change. Beijing’s approach toward Iran, as it faces attacks from Israel and
potentially the US, mirrors that of its other major partner, Russia. Like
Beijing, Moscow has criticized Israel’s attacks but done little to support
Tehran. After discussing the Middle East by phone with Putin on Thursday, Xi
issued a four-point proposal on the conflict that called for a ceasefire and to
“stop the war.”“It is up to the international community, especially the major
powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, to make
efforts to contribute to the cooling of the situation,” he said, in a veiled
reference to the US. “Using force is not the correct way to resolve
international disputes.”China has strengthened diplomatic and economic ties with
Tehran in recent years, although it has no formal alliance with the Islamic
Republic. Xi oversaw Iran’s joining of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
security club in 2023, and then its accession to the BRICS bloc — groupings
Beijing has bolstered to challenge US power on the world stage. While Beijing
signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement in 2021 that included a
reported $400 billion in Chinese investment pledges, implementation of that deal
has been weak. China’s economic interests in the wider Gulf region now far
outweigh its economic ties to Iran.
Trade ties with Iran are heavily skewed in Beijing’s favor. China accounts for
about a third of Iranian trade, while Iran represents less than 1% for China,
according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And while
Beijing buys some 90% of Iran’s oil exports in defiance of US sanctions, the
Islamic Republic is ultimately a replaceable energy partner for the Asian
country.“In the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost, they could be
replaced by spare capacity from OPEC+ producers,” Fitch Ratings wrote in a
Monday note. Already signs of a shift are emerging. As concerns grow over
expanding secondary sanctions, Chinese private refiners have reduced purchases
in recent weeks. Iranian oil flows into China fell to around one million barrels
a day in May hitting a three-month low, according to data tracked by Vortexa.
While Beijing brokered a diplomatic detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia in
2023, it has largely remained on the sidelines as fresh conflicts have unsettled
the Middle East. Iran, facing a superior Israeli military, would likely need
advanced air defense systems and fighter jets — support that China is unlikely
to provide. China has since 2005 officially ceased selling major weapons systems
to Tehran, although the US earlier this year sanctioned six Hong Kong and
Chinese companies for allegedly helping Iran source drone parts. Another option
could be to help mediate. But even if Xi were willing, it’s unclear if either
side would welcome him. Israel is unlikely to accept China after Beijing has
aligned with the Palestinian cause. China also prefers to work through
multilateral frameworks such as the United Nations, rather than taking a leading
role.
“Xi has expressed willingness to help. But what can he or China do?” said Zhiqun
Zhu, professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell
University. Mediating “is a tall order that’s hard to reach without cooperation
of other key players, especially the United States.”Perhaps the biggest risk for
Beijing is the conflict spiraling into a regional war that directly involves the
US and could threaten China’s energy security. The world’s No. 2 economy is a
net importer of crude oil, and about 45% of those shipments pass through the
Strait of Hormuz. Surging commodity prices would also blunt China’s ability to
stabilize growth, at a time when policymakers are already grappling with rising
trade barriers and a yearslong housing crash that’s weighing on consumer
spending. “While Beijing will continue to condemn the conflict, it will also
seek to balance ties with Israel and the Gulf states and promote stable energy
flows,” according to Bloomberg Economics analysts including Alex Kokcharov. A
contained conflict that preoccupies Washington could hold one silver lining for
Beijing, he added in a note Thursday: Greater US involvement in the Middle East
would “distract Washington from strategic competition with China.”That
calculation is reflected in the mixed views from commentators on Chinese social
media, where some nationalist voices urged Beijing to help Tehran. Political
commentator Li Guangman argued Iran’s failure would be a “geopolitical disaster”
for China. The fall of the Iranian regime would undermine Xi’s Belt and Road
Initiative, compromise the security of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and
allow the US to regain control of regional oil, prolonging its “petrodollar
hegemony,” he said. Ultimately, Beijing prizes stability in its foreign
relations and rarely supports violent regime change abroad, according to Neil
Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s
Center for China Analysis. “China’s strategy in the Middle East is to stay on
good terms with everyone to maximize its economic gains and geopolitical
influence,” he added.
Europe partly to blame for Iran-Israel conflict, Iran's UN ambassador tells
Euronews
Sasha Vakulina/Euronews/June 19, 2025
"We believe that the minimum thing Europeans can do is to very explicitly
condemn Israel and stop their support for Israel," Iran's ambassador and
permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahraini said in an
interview for Euronews. Bahraini said Europe's reluctance to condemn Israel's
aggression and its inability to keep the nuclear deal (JCPOA) afloat have all
contributed to the current intensifying hostilities between Iran and Israel, now
in their seventh day. "The impunity which has been given to Israel is something
which encourages that entity to continue committing new crimes. And this
impunity is because of inaction by Europeans. By the United States and the
Security Council," Bahraini explained. "We request and we ask Europe to push
Israel to stop the aggression. Europe should play its responsibility to put an
end to the impunity that Israel is enjoying. Europe should stop helping or
assisting Israel financially, militarily, or by intelligence. And Europe should
play a strong role in explaining for the United States and for Israel that
Iranian nuclear technology is not something which they can destroy." Bahraini
said that what he called Europe’s "failures" would be presented to the foreign
ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom – known collectively as the
E3 – at talks in Geneva on Friday. They are meeting in Switzerland to discuss
Iran’s nuclear programme, which is at the heart of the current conflict with
Israel. Iran was previously subject to an international nuclear deal known as
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which saw the country receive
sanctions relief in exchange for strict limits on its nuclear activities. During
his first term in office, President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the pact
in 2018, slamming it as "the worst deal ever negotiated" and slapping new
sanctions on Iran. Since then, the other signatories to the deal have scrambled
to keep Iran in compliance, but Tehran considers the deal void and has continued
with uranium enrichment, which at current levels sits at 60%.
That's still technically below the weapons-grade levels of 90%, but still far
above the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA. Iran maintains that its nuclear
programme is peaceful and purely for civilian purposes. Israel, on the other
hand, says Tehran is working towards the construction of a nuclear weapon, which
could be used against Israel. Bahraini told Euronews that there is still a
window for diplomacy to reach a new nuclear deal, but first, the fighting with
Israel has to stop.
"For our people and for our country, now the first priority is to stop
aggression, to stop attacks," he told Euronews.
"I personally cannot imagine there would be a strong probability at the moment
for a kind of diplomatic idea or initiative because for us it would be
inappropriate if we think or talk at the moment about anything rather than
stopping the aggressors," Bahraini pointed out. Parallel to the daily exchanges
of missile and drone strikes that have taken place since last Friday, the
conflict has also led to an escalating war of words, particularly between Trump
and some senior figures in Iran. When asked by reporters on Wednesday whether he
intended to bring the US military into the conflict to strike Iran alongside
Israel, Trump said, "I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going
to do." While Trump appeared to avoid a direct commitment to military action,
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu interpreted his comments as a show of
support and, in a television address later on Wednesday evening, thanked Trump
for "standing by us". Into that mix came Iran's mission to the United Nations,
which said no officials from the country would "grovel at the gates of the White
House" to reach a nuclear deal with the United States. Bahraini said it was
clear to him that "the United States has been complicit to what Israel is doing
now."
Strikes on the United States
He said Iran would respond very firmly if the United States "crosses the red
lines" and said that strikes on the country had not been ruled out. "Our
military forces are monitoring the situation. It is their domain to decide how
to react," he said. "What can I tell you for sure is that our military forces
have a strong dominance on the situation, they have a very precise assessment
and calculation about the movements of the United States. And they know where
the United States should be attacked," Bahraini warned. Bahraini also said that
Iran has not requested any international support and is protecting itself
independently. Iran funds a string of militant groups around the region,
including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, and
while they all have different aims and objectives, often the ideology that binds
them is their anti-Israel position. When fighting with Israel broke out last
week, there were concerns that Iran might demand these groups step up and fight
alongside it, in return for the funding and training they have received from
Tehran.
So far, that has not happened.
"At this stage, we are confident that we can defeat Israel independently and we
can stop aggression without needing any request of help by anybody," Bahraini
explained. "I personally believe that Israel is not an entity with which
somebody can negotiate. The thing we have to do is to stop aggression, and we
have to show Israel that it is not able to cross the red lines against Iran."
"Israel is accustomed to committing crimes, and we think that we have stop it
somewhere. We have to tell Israel that there is a red line," he concluded.
Pakistan fears militants
will thrive on restive border if Iran destabilised
Saeed Shah/Reuters/June 19, 2025
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) -Separatist and jihadist militants on the Pakistan-Iran
border could take advantage of any collapse of authority in Iran, fears that
Pakistan’s army chief pressed in a meeting this week with the U.S. President
Donald Trump. Anti-Iranian and anti-Pakistan outfits operate on both sides of
the 560-mile (900km) long border. As Israel bombs Iran's nuclear program, its
officials have repeatedly indicated that they are seeking to destabilize the
Iranian government or see it toppled. As well as worrying about chaos spilling
over from Iran, Pakistan is concerned about the precedent set by Israel of
attacking the nuclear installations of another country. Nuclear-armed rivals
Pakistan and India fought a four-day conflict in May. Following a Wednesday
lunch at the White House with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir,
Trump said: “They’re not happy about anything”, referring to Pakistan's views on
the Israel-Iran conflict. Pakistan’s military said on Thursday that the two had
discussed Iran,“with both leaders emphasizing the importance of resolution of
the conflict”.Pakistan has condemned Israel’s attack on Iran as a violation of
international law. “This is for us a very serious issue what is happening in our
brotherly country of Iran,” Shafqat Ali Khan, spokesman for Pakistan’s Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, said on Thursday. “It imperils the entire regional security
structures, it impacts us deeply.”Some of the militant groups on the border have
welcomed the upheaval. Jaish al-Adl (JaA), an Iranian jihadist group formed from
ethnic Baluch and Sunni Muslim minorities and which operates from Pakistan, said
Israel’s conflict with Iran was a great opportunity. “Jaish al-Adl extends the
hand of brotherhood and friendship to all the people of Iran and calls on all
people, especially the people of Baluchistan, as well as the armed forces, to
join the ranks of the Resistance,” the group said in a statement on June 13.
Conversely, Pakistan fears that separatist militants from its own Baluch
minority, which are based in Iran, will also seek to step up attacks. "There’s a
fear of ungoverned spaces, which would be fertile ground for terrorist groups,"
said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington. Pakistan has
unstable borders with Taliban-run Afghanistan and arch-rival India. It does not
want to add another volatile frontier on its long border with Iran. The
Iran-Pakistan border region is populated with ethnic Baluch, a minority in both
countries who have long complained about discrimination and launched separatist
movements. On Pakistan’s side, the region is a province called Balochistan and
in Iran it is Sistan-Baluchistan. Until Israel's bombing of Iran, Tehran was
closer to Pakistan’s arch-rival India. Pakistan and Iran had even traded air
strikes last year, accusing each other of harboring Baluch militants. But the
attack on Iran has upended alliances, as India has not condemned Israel's
bombing campaign. China has also said that it is deeply concerned about the
security situation in Balochistan, with the area being a focus of Beijing’s
multi-billion dollar infrastructure investment program in Pakistan, centred on
the new Chinese-run port of Gwadar. Baluch militant groups in Pakistan have
previously targeted Chinese personnel and projects. On Iranian side of the
border, Tehran has at different times accused Pakistan, Gulf nations, Israel and
the United States of backing the anti-Iran Baluch groups. Simbal Khan, an
analyst based in Islamabad, said the different Baluch groups could morph into a
“greater Baluchistan” movement which seeks to carve out a new nation from the
Baluch areas of Pakistan and Iran. “They’re all going to fight together if this
blows up,” said Khan.
At least 12 Palestinians killed waiting for aid in Gaza, say medics
BBC/June 19, 2025
At least 12 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces while waiting for
aid in central Gaza, according to rescuers and medics.Reports say the group was
killed by gunfire near an aid distribution site run by the US- and
Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) on Thursday.
The GHF denied there were any incidents near its site. The Israeli military told
Reuters that "suspects" had attempted to approach forces in the area of Netzarim,
and that soldiers had fired warning shots. It said it was unaware of any
injuries. The incident is the latest in almost daily shootings near such aid
sites in Gaza. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since late May, when
the GHF took over aid distribution in Gaza in an attempt by Israel to bypass the
UN as the main supplier of aid. Nearly all the casualties in Gaza in recent days
have been linked to incidents around the delivery of aid, rather than Israeli
strikes on Hamas targets. Gaza's health ministry said on Thursday that since
midnight 12 people had been killed while seeking aid, without giving further
details. The Hamas-run civil defence agency - Gaza's main emergency service -
told AFP news agency that a group was killed by Israeli gunfire near the
Netzarim corridor, where thousands of people have been gathering daily seeking
aid. Civil defence official Mohammad al-Mughayyir said 15 people were killed and
60 injured in the incident. Israel does not allow international news
organisations, including the BBC, into Gaza, making it difficult to verify
figures. AFP said it had spoken to witness Bassam Abu Shaar, who said thousands
of people had gathered overnight at the GHF-backed distribution site, and that
Israeli forces opened fire at about 01:00 (22:00 GMT). He said the size of the
crowd had made it impossible for people to escape the gunfire, adding: "We
couldn't help them or even escape ourselves."The GHF however told the BBC:
"There were no incidents anywhere near our site today.""This is yet again
another example of false and misleading reporting by the GHM [Gaza health
ministry]." The BBC has contacted the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for a
response. According to Reuters, the Israeli military said people had approached
its forces in a threatening manner. In a Telegram statement on Wednesday, Hamas
called for the UN and its humanitarian agencies to be the sole distributors of
aid in Gaza. The UN and other aid groups refuse to co-operate with the new aid
system led by the GHF. The UN says the system contravenes the humanitarian
principles of neutrality, impartiality, and independence. They also warn that
Gaza's population faces catastrophic levels of hunger after an 11-week total
Israeli blockade that was partially eased a month ago. The US and Israel say
GHF's system will prevent aid being stolen by Hamas, which the group denies
doing. Separately on Thursday, civil defence teams recovered dozens of bodies
from various parts of the Gaza Strip following reports of Israeli shelling.
Seven people were reportedly killed when a tent sheltering displaced civilians
was hit in Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. Eyewitnesses and relatives of
the victims told the BBC that those killed were a couple and their five children
from the Asaliya family. The Israeli military launched a campaign in Gaza in
response to the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which
about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage. At least
55,637 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's
Hamas-run health ministry. Israeli forces kill 51 Palestinians waiting for flour
at Gaza aid site, witnesses and rescuers say. Eleven killed by Israeli fire
while seeking aid in Gaza, rescuers say
Video shows crowd of Palestinians climbing fence and rushing to aid site
UN: Violence against children in conflict reached
'unprecedented levels' in 2024, with Gaza worst
Edith M. Lederer/The Associated Press/June 19, 2025
UNITED NATIONS — Violence against children caught in multiple and escalating
conflicts reached “unprecedented levels" last year, with the highest number of
violations in Gaza and the West Bank, Congo, Somalia, Nigeria and Haiti,
according to a United Nations report released late Thursday.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ annual report on Children in Armed Conflict
detailed “a staggering 25% surge in grave violations” against children under the
age of 18 from 2023, when the number of such violations rose by 21%. In 2024,
the U.N. chief said, “Children bore the brunt of relentless hostilities and
indiscriminate attacks, and were affected by the disregard for ceasefires and
peace agreements and by deepening humanitarian crises.”He cited warfare
strategies that included attacks on children, the deployment of increasingly
destructive and explosive weapons in populated areas, and “the systematic
exploitation of children for combat.”Guterres said the United Nations verified
41,370 grave violations against children — 36,221 committed in 2024 and 5,149
committed earlier but verified last year. The violations include killing,
maiming, recruiting and abducting children, sexual violence against them,
attacking schools and hospitals and denying youngsters access to humanitarian
aid. The U.N. kept Israeli forces on its blacklist of countries that violate
children’s rights for a second year, citing 7,188 verified grave violations by
its military, including the killing of 1,259 Palestinian children and injury to
941 others in Gaza. The Gaza Health Ministry has reported much higher figures,
but the U.N. has strict criteria and said its process of verification is
ongoing. Guterres said he is “appalled by the intensity of grave violations
against children in the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel,” and
“deeply alarmed” by the increase in violations, especially the high number of
children killed by Israeli forces. He reiterated his calls on Israel to abide by
international law requiring special protections for children, protection for
schools and hospitals, and compliance with the requirement that attacks
distinguish between combatants and civilians and avoid excessive harm to
civilians. The U.N. also kept Hamas, whose surprise Oct. 7, 2023, attack in
southern Israel sparked the ongoing war in Gaza, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad
on the blacklist.Israel's U.N. Mission did not immediately respond to a request
for comment. In Congo, the U.N. reported 4,043 verified grave violations against
3,418 children last year. In Somalia, it reported 2,568 violations against 1,992
children. In Nigeria, 2,436 grave violations were reported against 1,037
children. And in Haiti, the U.N. reported 2,269 verified grave violations
against 1,373 children.
In the ongoing war following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the
United Nations kept the Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups on its
blacklist for a third year. The secretary-general expressed deep concern at “the
sharp increase in grave violations against children in Ukraine” — 1,914 against
673 children. He expressed alarm at the violations by Russian forces and their
affiliates, singling out their verified killing of 94 Ukrainian children, injury
to 577 others, and 559 attacks on schools and 303 on hospitals. In Haiti, the
U.N. put a gang, the Viv Ansanm coalition, on the blacklist for the first time.
Gangs have grown in power since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in
July 2021. They are now estimated to control 85% of the capital and have moved
into surrounding areas. In May, the U.S. designated the powerful coalition
representing more than a dozen gangs, whose name means “Living Together,” as a
foreign terrorist organization. Secretary-General Guterres expressed deep
“alarm” at the surge in violations, especially incidents of gang recruitment and
use, sexual violence, abduction and denial of humanitarian aid. The report said
sexual violence jumped by 35% in 2024, including a dramatic increase in the
number of gang rapes, but stressed that the numbers are vastly underreported.
“Girls were abducted for the purpose of recruitment and use, and for sexual
slavery,” the U.N. chief said. In Haiti, the U.N. reported sexual violence
against 566 children, 523 of them girls, and attributed 411 to the Viv Ansanm
gang. In Congo, the U.N. reported 358 acts of sexual violence against girls —
311 by armed groups and 47 by Congo’s armed forces. And in Somalia, 267 children
were victims of sexual violence, 120 of them carried out by Al-Shabab
extremists. According to the report, violations affected 22,495 children in
2024, with armed groups responsible for almost 50% and government forces the
main perpetrator of the killing and maiming of children, school attacks and
denial of humanitarian access. The report noted a sharp rise in the number of
children subjected to multiple violations — from 2,684 in 2023 to 3,137 in 2024.
“The cries of 22,495 innocent children who should be learning to read or play
ball — but instead have been forced to learn how to survive gunfire and bombings
— should keep all of us awake at night,” said Virginia Gamba, the U.N. special
representative for children and armed conflict. “We are at the point of no
return,” she said, calling on the international community to protect children
and the parties in conflict “to immediately end the war on children.”
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on June 19-20/2025
'When the Judges Ruled, There Was Famine': Bible
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/June 19, 2025
Under Article 3 of the United States Constitution, judges are supposed to play a
critical role in checking and balancing the excesses of the other branches.
Their central responsibility is to enforce the procedural safeguards of the Bill
of Rights, most particularly those assuring due process, equal protection and
the right of dissent. They have no legitimate business interfering with the
substantive policies of the executive or legislative branches.
Judges look harder to find procedural objections to policies and actions of
which they disapprove.
[Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis] consistently voted to uphold laws and
practices with which he had strong substantive disagreements, so long as they
did not clearly violate express provisions of the Constitution. That is the
proper role of unelected judges in a democracy.
The people -- not the judges -- should rule the land.
Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis consistently voted to uphold laws and
practices with which he had strong substantive disagreements, so long as they
did not clearly violate express provisions of the Constitution. That is the
proper role of unelected judges in a democracy.
The Book of Ruth begins with an ominous warning: "In the days when the judges
ruled, there was famine in the land."
History shows that judges make poor leaders. Thomas Jefferson understood this
when he tried to limit the influence of the "midnight judges" appointed by John
Adams. Andrew Jackson refused to implement a Supreme Court decision that he
believed undercut his policy toward Native American tribes. Abraham Lincoln
responded to what he regarded as the overreaching of judges by suspending the
writ of habeas corpus. Franklin Roosevelt threatened to pack the Supreme Court
when the justices tried to dismantle his congressionally-enacted New Deal.
Now, many district court judges are determined to thwart the policies of
President Donald Trump. Judicial efforts to thwart executive and legislative
actions have occurred frequently in our history, as have executive and
legislative responses to such judicial activism.
Under Article 3 of the United States Constitution, judges are supposed to play a
critical role in checking and balancing the excesses of the other branches.
Their central responsibility is to enforce the procedural safeguards of the Bill
of Rights, most particularly those assuring due process, equal protection and
the right of dissent. They have no legitimate business interfering with the
substantive policies of the executive or legislative branches.
There was a time in our history when the Supreme Court interpreted the
Constitution to include what was known as substantive due process — a vague
concept that presumed to empower judges to strike down legislation and executive
action that they deemed "unreasonable" or otherwise violative of broad
constitutional limitations such as the sanctity of property and contracts. Under
these interpretations, they held unconstitutional many liberal and progressive
reforms such as child labor restrictions and other protections of workers and
consumers.
Liberals were furious at this expansion of judicial authority, and many
Democrats demanded that restrictions be placed on judicial activism and
overreach. During Franklin Roosevelt's presidency, dissenting justices, led by
Louis Brandeis, the Supreme Court's most liberal member, called for judicial
restraint and opposed what they regarded as the misapplication of substantive
due process to the policies and actions of elected officials. The Brandeis view
prevailed, but only after Roosevelt threatened to pack the court with additional
justices who would sustain his policies. The result was a change in the voting
patterns of several justices — which historians labeled "the switch in time that
saved nine."
Now the shoe seems to be on the other foot. It is left-wing judges who are
seeking to thwart the right-wing policies and actions of a Republican president.
They do not explicitly invoke substantive due process — they wouldn't dare in
light of the well-known history. But their actions smack of that rejected
concept. They disapprove of Trump's deportation, defunding, firing and other
executive actions that they regard as un-American and unfair — just as the
conservative judges regarded Roosevelt's attack on the right of contract as
un-American.
In both situations, judges, hostile to the substantive polices of the
administration, searched for procedural and other reasons to halt or slow down
the implementation of these "bad" policies. In the current situation, the Trump
administration has sometimes provided the courts with justifications for their
actions, by applying due process safeguards narrowly, or questionably. But every
honest legal realist will have to acknowledge that many of these judicial
decisions have been influenced by policy considerations. Judges look harder to
find procedural objections to policies and actions of which they disapprove.
The bottom line is that neither party passes the shoe on the other foot test.
Both praise judicial activism when it helps their side and rail against it when
it hurts them. The Trump administration praised SCOTUS for ruling that Harvard's
race-based affirmative action admissions program was unconstitutional, but it
objected when the courts stayed the administration's cutting of funding to
Harvard and other institutions. The Democrats cheered when the justices decided
Roe v Wade on questionable constitutional grounds, but they jeered when a later
court ruled that there was no constitutional right to abortion. These changing
attitudes are not about different general principles regarding judicial activism
or restraint. They are about specific outcomes of highly politicized cases and
controversies.
In the end, Brandeis had the correct approach: judicial restraint, regardless of
the partisan or ideological consequences. He consistently voted to uphold laws
and practices with which he had strong substantive disagreements, so long as
they did not clearly violate express provisions of the Constitution. That is the
proper role of unelected judges in a democracy.
The people -- not the judges -- should rule the land.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of War Against the Jews: How to
End Hamas Barbarism, and Get Trump: The Threat to Civil Liberties, Due Process,
and Our Constitutional Rule of Law. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation
Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
*Follow Alan M. Dershowitz on X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21691/rule-by-judges
As Trump Weighs Up Joining Israel's War Against Iran,
Here's A Reminder How We Got Here
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/June 19, 2025
Donald Trump is currently considering whether to join Israel in bombing Iran – a
seismic decision which could cause chaos across the Middle East and beyond.
The UK is particularly nervous to see what the mercurial president does next,
knowing that there may well be pressure for Britain to assist America, as one of
its closest allies. So as much of the West and the Middle East nervously await
news from the White House, here’s a look back at just how we ended up on this
knife-edge...
Why has Israel been bombing Iran?
Israel claims it had no option but to attack Iran because Tehran was close to
developing nuclear weapons. The Fordo nuclear site is one of two facilities
where Iran can enrich uranium. It’s build into a mountain for safety, 124 miles
south of Tehran. While the facility has been hit by Israel’s recent attacks,
it’s thought the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) was actually trying to weaken
Iran’s defence capabilities around the facility. Only one conventional weapon
could actually destroy the fortified site, and it belong to the US. Is Iran on
the cusp of developing a nuclear bomb?
It’s not clear. To build such a bomb, a country would need to have uranium
enriched to 90%, the ability to build a warhead and a way to direct that warhead
to an end point. While Iran is definitely working on some nuclear capabilities,
it has always insisted that its nuclear programme is peaceful. In March, Trump’s
director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that “while Iran
had an unprecedented stockpile of weapons-grade uranium, it did not appear to be
building a nuclear weapon”. But Trump has dismissed this intelligence. Israel
has also claimed “over the past few months intelligence has shown that Iran is
closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon”. Meanwhile, the UN’s nuclear
watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced earlier this
month that Iran had breached its non-proliferation obligations for the first
time in almost two decades. It concluded that Iran has amassed around 400kg of
uranium enriched to 60% – that’s more than is required for civil nuclear use.
Is Israel a nuclear power?
Israel is believed to have up to 90 nuclear warheads, but the country has not
confirmed or denied whether that is true. Israel is also not part of the global
nuclear non-proliferation treaty meant to prevent more countries – like Iran –
from building their own weapons. Why were there already tensions between Israel
and Iran? Tensions in the Middle East rose sharply in October 2023 when
Iranian-backed militants Hamas crossed from Gaza into Israel and killed 1,200
people, taking a further 250 captive. Israel declared war on Hamas, launched a
ground offensive and imposed a blockade on aid heading into the Palestinian
territory. The Hamas-run health ministry say at least 54,000 people have been
killed in Gaza since the war began. After Israel declared war, other Iranian
proxies – like Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon – began to fight
Israel.
The US, Israel’s most powerful friend, has helped to subdue these attacks in
recent months, while other allies like the UK, continue to send Israel weapons.
Iran is also weakened after the deposition of Syria’s leader Bashar al-Assad,
although that was not a result of Israeli actions.
What was Iran’s nuclear deal – and why did it fall apart?
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear
deal, was put in place in 2015. Iran agreed with the US, UK, France, China,
Russia and Germany to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow
international inspectors in to monitor their work. In exchange, world powers
would lift the economic sanctions it placed on the country. The deal was due to
expire in 2031 but it began to fall apart in May 2018 when Trump pulled out. He
claimed the accord was “defective at its core” and reinstated all US sanctions
on Iran. Trump wanted to force Tehran into a tougher deal which would limit
Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts. Iran rejected that plan even as the
sanctions triggered a recession and skyrocketing inflation. In 2019, Tehran
began to exceed the deal’s restrictions on its nuclear programme, blaming the US
for its own “non-performance”. Joe Biden tried to revive the JCPOA in 2021 when
he was elected as president, but Iran said it was waiting for the US to lift
sanctions first. When he left office and Trump was re-elected, the US was
expected to resume nuclear talks with Iran this month. However, Israel’s recent
strikes have set back any potential talks.
Why would the US (and possibly the UK) join the regional conflict?
Trump initially called for de-escalation, but he has also called for Iran’s
“unconditional surrender” and threatened to attack its supreme leader whom he
claims is an “easy target”.Asked if he would join in with the attacks, Trump
said on Wednesday night: “I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m
going to do.”The US may seek the UK’s permission to use the British airbase in
the Chagos Islands to launch its mission. But Trump risks putting American lives
at risk if he does target Iran. There are about 40-50,000 US troops at around 19
locations across the Middle East who could be vulnerable to attack.
Trump’s credibility problem on Iran
Aaron Blake, CNN/June 19, 2025
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The United States goes to war in a Middle
Eastern country starting with the letters “I-R-A,” based on disputed and
later-disproven intelligence about that country’s pursuit of devastating
weaponry.
It happened two decades ago with Iraq; it’s valid to ask whether it could be
happening again with Iran. And it’s a legitimate question in large part because
President Donald Trump and his administration have credibility problems of their
own making. They’re asking the American people for a huge amount of faith on the
most serious of issues, without having put in the work to build that trust.
As Trump has increasingly flirted with joining Israel’s strikes on Iran in
recent days, he’s argued that Iran has been very close to a nuclear weapon.
“I think they were a few weeks away from having one,” he said Wednesday,
seemingly referring to the period before Israel first struck Iran’s nuclear
program last week. But that’s very difficult to square with the March testimony
of Trump’s own director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and plenty of
other indicators. Gabbard testified less than three months ago that her own
intelligence community “continues to assess Iran is not building a nuclear
weapon.” She also said that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had
“not authorized a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
That testimony looms extremely large right now. CNN reported this week that the
intelligence community has indeed estimated Iran was up to three years away from
being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon to a target of its choosing.
The administration and its allies have struggled to account for all of this.
Trump on Tuesday effectively dismissed Gabbard’s testimony, saying, “I don’t
care what she said.”Gabbard has claimed she and Trump are on the “same page.” An
official in her office told CNN that “just because Iran is not building a
nuclear weapon right now, doesn’t mean they aren’t ‘very close’ as President
Trump said.”Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma suggested to CNN’s Jake
Tapper on Wednesday that Gabbard had old information and that the Trump
administration now has better information. “In March, she was in her job for 30
days and [was] still getting handoff information from the I.C., the American
intelligence community, from the Biden administration,” Mullin said. He added
that the “information was quite different.”But when pressed on what better
information we have now, Mullin didn’t go into too much detail. He noted that he
had to be careful, while largely pointing to what Israeli intelligence had told
the US. Signals from Democrats in Congress have been more mixed. Rep. Adam Smith
of Washington state, the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee,
told NPR on Thursday that Iran “probably likely” does have at least something of
a nuclear weapons program. But the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence
Committee, Mark Warner of Virginia, told CNN’s Kasie Hunt on Wednesday that
intelligence Gabbard cited hadn’t really changed.
He said that was the case as recently as Monday of this week.
In response to Warner’s comments, the White House pointed to recent comments
from US Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, who told the Senate Armed
Services Committee that the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated that an
Iranian “sprint to a nuclear weapon” could produce enough weapons-grade material
for 10 nuclear weapons within three weeks. But producing the material is not the
same as having a bomb that’s deliverable, which is the significant hurdle that
underpins the intelligence community’s much longer timeline. Warner suggested
the administration was in the process of trying to “cook the books.” “When you
cook intelligence, you end up with a war like Iraq, where a president at that
point didn’t follow the intelligence and the intelligence was manipulated,” the
Virginia Democrat said. “I worry that we may be seeing some of that going on.”So
is that happening now? There’s much we have to learn here. But to the extent
Trump and his administration actually intend to build a case for war, they have
done themselves few favors.
Gabbard’s testimony might be the biggest problem for the White House.
Here was the administration less than three months ago – in a prepared
statement, no less – saying that this just wasn’t an immediate problem. It’s
possible for assessments to evolve and/or that Iran re-launched the program in
the intervening period. But the administration hasn’t done much of anything to
signal any shifts before this week. At least with Iraq, the Bush administration
was providing details of what it said the intelligence showed – claims that
could be evaluated. Even the Kurilla comments the administration points to don’t
actually contradict what Gabbard said, what Warner is saying and what CNN has
reported about US civilian intelligence community assessments. And even if
Gabbard and those assessments got it wrong then, who’s to say the administration
isn’t getting it wrong now? Trump’s flippant response to the question about
Gabbard’s comments epitomized the distinct lack of details here. And then
there’s the relevant history, which adds weight to Warner’s worries about
cooking the books.
When you’re relaying sensitive intelligence, there’s always a bit of faith
involved. The administration can’t share everything that it has, because that
could jeopardize its operations and collection methods. But Trump over the years
has proven anything but careful about the things he says. During his first term,
he amassed more than 30,000 false and misleading claims, according to a
Washington Post compilation. Trump often seems to say whatever’s politically
expedient at a given point in time. And the American people have noticed. A
February Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed just 35% of Americans said Trump was
“honest and trustworthy”; 62% took the opposite view. That’s a bad thing when
the stakes are much lower; it’s potentially much worse when the claims involved
are about a case for war. The final point is that we already have evidence that
the Trump administration could be politicizing intelligence. The administration
back in March staked its attempts to rapidly deport undocumented immigrants on
the idea that the government of Venezuela was somehow involved in an “invasion”
by members of the gang Tren de Aragua. But that’s not actually what the
intelligence showed. Indeed, a memo that was later released contradicted claims
the administration was making. And both Reuters and The New York Times later
reported that internal communications suggested some in the administration had
injected politics into the intelligence process. According to the Times,
Gabbard’s chief of staff at one point wrote, “We need to do some rewriting” and
more analysis “so this document is not used against the DNI or POTUS” –
referring to Gabbard and Trump. Around this time, Gabbard fired the top two
career officials leading the National Intelligence Council. The administration
at the time suggested it was these nonpartisan officials who were politicizing
intelligence. But the email contents strongly suggest politics loomed over how
Trump’s appointees were handling intelligence. All of which looms large over
what happens next. The American people appear quite skeptical of striking Iran,
and that could be doubly fraught given the administration’s track record.
Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program is fully
justified under international law
Geoffrey Corn and Orde F. Kittrie/Center for Ethics and the Rule of
Law/June19/2025
Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which began early Friday,
June 13, are lawful, contrary to the expressed views of various commentators and
politicians, including Senator Bernie Sanders.
Several of these commentators have based their contention that Israel’s attack
is illegal on their opinion that Israel was not responding to an “imminent”
nuclear attack by Iran. But this argument overlooks a critical legal principle:
When two countries are already in a state of armed conflict—in colloquial terms
a war—there is no requirement to wait for “the next attack” to be imminent.
Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, including its ballistic
missile capabilities, was legal because Iran and Israel were already engaged in
an ongoing international armed conflict. Furthermore, even assuming for
argument’s sake that this was not the case, the imminence test was met by the
facts in place on June 12, fully justifying Israel’s invocation of the
international legal right for a state to defend itself against an imminent
unlawful armed attack.
The armed conflict between Iran and Israel has been ongoing since at least April
13-14, 2024, when Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles at Israel and, in the
view of some experts, even prior to this date as the result of attacks against
Israel by Iran’s main proxy, Hezbollah. Then, on October 1, 2024, Iran launched
at Israel over 180 missiles, reportedly the largest ballistic missile attack in
history. In late May 2025, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, commander-in-chief
of Iran’s army, threatened another similar missile attack against Israel to
“collect on what they already owe us.”
While an armed conflict continues, there is no requirement to justify every
attack against the enemy through the pre-war imminence test. With Iran already
engaged in ongoing conflict with Israel, international law did not require
Israel to wait to take military action against these vital enemy assets until
just before Iran either launched a nuclear missile against Israel or otherwise
fired its proverbial next shot. Instead, it was legal, as well as logical, that
Israel attack the enemy’s most dangerous weapon system—in this case, Iran’s
nuclear weapons program.
Those arguing Israel acted prematurely to defend itself ignore the fact that
Israel’s right of self-defense was first triggered when Iran initiated this
armed conflict in April 2024. The assertion that the armed conflict essentially
terminated after the October 2024 round of Iranian missile attacks against
Israel is misguided. Iran’s eliminationist threats and actions towards Israel,
coupled with its relentless march towards nuclear weapons—not to mention the
continuation of the ‘shadow war’ between the two countries that predates Iran’s
missile attacks—invalidates such an assertion.
Wars do not progress on a flatline of intensity, and attacking enemy military
targets when and where one is most likely to achieve maximum military advantage
is both legal and logical in war. Suggesting that imminence of another Iranian
attack, either nuclear or conventional, was a necessary condition for this
military campaign against Iran ignores the international law governing ongoing
armed conflict.
This approach to assessing the legality of attacks is a longstanding cornerstone
of U.S. policy. Brian J. Egan, while serving as State Department legal adviser
under President Barack Obama, explained that, “In the view of the United States,
once a State has lawfully resorted to force in self-defense against a particular
armed group following an actual or imminent armed attack by that group, it is
not necessary as a matter of international law to reassess whether an armed
attack is imminent prior to every subsequent action taken against that group,
provided that hostilities have not ended.”
In addition, Paul Ney, the DOD general counsel during the first Trump
administration, noted in relation to the attack that killed Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani that “an imminent attack is
not a necessary condition for resort to force in self-defense in this
circumstance because armed attacks by Iran already had occurred and were
expected to occur again.”
This rationale for attacking a nuclear weapons program facility during an
ongoing armed conflict should resonate with Iran, which, during the Iran-Iraq
War, itself conducted an airstrike on Saddam’s Osirak nuclear reactor.
Even if Iran were not in an ongoing armed conflict with Israel, Israel would
have had the right, under the current circumstances, to destroy Iran’s nuclear
weapons program as an act of self-defense. Defending against an Iranian nuclear
attack would be nearly impossible once that weapon was developed and fielded. It
was therefore reasonable for Israel’s leaders to conclude that launching last
Friday’s attack was the last feasible opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring
a nuclear weapon it could use to fulfill its vow of destroying Israel.
Iran’s leaders have repeatedly expressed an intent to “annihilate” Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, last month said Israel “is a
lethal, dangerous, cancerous tumor [that] should certainly be eradicated, and it
will be.” In celebration of Iran’s October 1, 2024, missile attack against
Israel, Tehran erected a giant billboard declaring “Israel must be wiped off the
face of the earth.” In addition, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,
Major General Hossein Salami, killed during Israel’s attack on June 13, said
Israel “must be wiped off the map and this is no longer . . . a dream (but) it
is an achievable goal.”Underscoring the connection between Iran’s nuclear
program and the Iranian leadership’s threats to destroy Israel, Iran has both
displayed and launched ballistic missiles emblazoned with the words “Israel must
be wiped off the face of the Earth” and “Death to Israel.” Iranian military
parades have repeatedly featured Shihab-3 missiles draped in banners containing
the Persian language slogan “Israel must be destroyed.” The International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported evidence that Iran has worked to develop a
nuclear warhead for the Shihab-3 missile—a weapon that can already reach Israel.
By June 12, 2025, Iran’s nuclear weapons program had crossed the proverbial
Rubicon. Current and former Iranian officials had stated that Iran’s nuclear
weapons program was close to fruition. One even hinted that Tehran already had
all the pieces needed to assemble its warhead. A recent study, which one of us
co-authored, indicated Iran’s breakout time was down to a mere week. Meanwhile,
United States and Israeli intelligence discovered that Iran had accelerated its
efforts to build a nuclear trigger.
The IAEA’s June 12 resolution determined that Iran was in “non-compliance” with
its nuclear nonproliferation legal obligations and warned of “the rapid
accumulation of highly enriched uranium by Iran.” The resolution concluded that,
after more than twenty years of dialogue, IAEA efforts to persuade Iran to
change course were “at an impasse.”
The IAEA resolution provided a list of steps that are “essential and urgent” for
Iran to take “without delay” to “urgently remedy its non-compliance.” Iran
responded not by taking these steps to end its violations but rather by
announcing a drastic new acceleration of its nuclear weapons program.
At that point, peaceful efforts to ensure Iran fully complied with its
nonproliferation obligations—to include the Trump administration’s efforts at
negotiation—were indeed “at an impasse,” as the IAEA resolution described the
situation. Rather than engage constructively in negotiations with the IAEA and
the United States, Iranian leaders exploited the talks to provide cover while
racing ahead towards a nuclear arsenal.
Assertions that the nuclear threat to Israel was not yet imminent, and that
Israel should have ignored Iranian threats to destroy it, overlook the gravity
of the risk Israel faced. Sir Daniel Bethlehem, former principal legal adviser
to the United Kingdom’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office, highlights gravity of a
threat as a factor in imminence assessment in his highly influential 2012
article. His approach arguably became a cornerstone of the so-called Obama
doctrine on using force in self-defense, and has been reflected in U.S. practice
ever since.
Some may assert that Israel’s impressive counter-missile capabilities lessen the
gravity of the threat Israel faced. But planning for a defensive capability to
be totally effective is planning to fail, as has been proven many times
throughout history.
One need only consider the footage of Iranian conventionally-armed ballistic
missiles that have already penetrated Israel’s air defense umbrella to
appreciate precisely why it would be folly to over-rely on this defensive
shield. More importantly, Iranian success to date increases the gravity of risk
inherent in delaying this campaign. Imagine if even one of those missiles had
carried the nuclear warhead Iran was so determined to field.
Some have also argued that international law prohibits any attack directed
against nuclear facilities, no matter the circumstances. This mistaken idea may
stem from a misunderstanding of Article 56 of Additional Protocol I (API) to the
Geneva Conventions of 1949.
Article 56 prohibits attacks only on one type of facility, “nuclear electrical
generating stations,” and only if such attacks “may cause the release of
dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.”
The Bushehr nuclear power reactor is the only facility in Iran that falls within
the ambit of Article 56. Israel has not attacked Bushehr, which is considered of
much less proliferation concern than several other Iranian nuclear facilities.
The top targets for Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program are Iran’s Fordow
and Natanz enrichment facilities, Arak heavy water plant, and Isfahan uranium
conversion facility. Article 56 does not restrict parties to the API from
attacking enrichment facilities, heavy water plants, or uranium conversion
facilities. In any event, Israel, like the United States, as well as Iran, has
chosen not to become a party to the API, is not bound by it, and does not
consider Article 56 a reflection of customary international law.
Similarly, commentators have also cited the following non-binding opinion which
the general conference of the IAEA board of governors has expressed on at least
three occasions (including in September 2009): “any armed attack on and threat
against nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation
of the principles of the United Nations Charter, international law and the
Statute of the Agency.”
The key words in this opinion are “devoted to peaceful purposes.” IAEA Director
General Rafael Grossi has stated on multiple occasions, and the June 12 IAEA
resolution reiterated, that the IAEA is not “in a position to provide assurance
that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.” Indeed, the IAEA has
repeatedly publicized evidence that Iran’s nuclear facilities are not devoted to
peaceful purposes. For example, Grossi has warned that the Iranian regime is now
producing uranium enriched to a purity level which he says “only countries
making bombs have” and noted the regime has amassed sufficient such “nuclear
material for several nuclear weapons.”
It is also important to recognize that the nature of the threat Israel is
addressing—both the imminent threat of Iran arming itself with a nuclear weapon
and its existing ballistic missile capability focused on Israel—renders the
scope of this campaign proportional as an act of self-defense. The Israeli
military campaign appears to be aligned with the strategic objectives of
disabling these threats. And it is difficult to imagine a self-defense objective
more vital than eliminating the threat of being attacked with a nuclear weapon
by a state that has already launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones
into your territory and repeatedly threatened to destroy you. If assessed
through the lens of self-defense, a military campaign focused on preventing Iran
from achieving its objective of annihilating Israel—which in itself would be an
international law violation of the gravest magnitude—is clearly proportional.
Israel is thus doubly justified in conducting a military campaign to rid itself
and the world of an imminent threat that Iran’s leadership would acquire a
nuclear weapon capable of achieving its objective of destroying Israel and its
nine million inhabitants. During the ongoing Israel-Iran armed conflict,
targeting the assets and personnel essential for weaponizing the nuclear
material Iran has already accumulated is among the most compelling military
objectives imaginable. And even if a self-defense justification were needed, the
advanced state and purpose of Iran’s nuclear weapons program would provide
sufficient basis.
The Iranian nuclear-capable missiles that struck Israeli cities last year (and
again in recent days) underscore Iran’s determination to destroy Israel, its
persistence in violating international law by targeting civilians, and the error
of assuming Israel’s defenses would be sufficient to protect Israel from a
nuclear attack and Iran’s missile arsenal. Israel, left with no choice but to
take military action, had two strong legal rationales for doing so.
***LTC Geoffrey Corn, USA (ret.), a Texas Tech University law professor and
JINSA distinguished fellow, previously served as the U.S. Army’s senior law of
war expert. Orde Kittrie, an Arizona State University law professor and senior
fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, previously served as the
lead U.S. State Department attorney for nuclear issues.
https://www.penncerl.org/the-rule-of-law-post/israels-attack-on-irans-nuclear-weapons-program-is-fully-justified-under-international-law/
‘They strike, we dance’ — Iranians damn the regime amid
Israeli barrage
Janatan Sayeh/New York Post/June 19/2025
https://nypost.com/2025/06/17/opinion/we-dance-iranians-damn-the-regime-amid-israeli-strikes/
Cries of “Death to Khamenei” filled the night air in Tehran on June 15, rising
above the thunder of Israeli airstrikes. The same defiant chorus had echoed
through the city the night before, as if the people were rehearsing for the fall
of the very system they were raised to fear. After five inconclusive rounds of
talks between Iran and the United States, Israel launched its military campaign
against the Islamic Republic’s leadership last week — and ordinary Iranians are
not rallying around the regime.
Instead, many are now mocking Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s fundamental
miscalculation when he declared during President Trump’s first term, “There will
be no war, nor will we negotiate!”
Neither prediction held true. A review of Persian-language outlets based outside
Iran, which have broadcast a stream of comments and video updates from Iran
residents in recent days, indicates that the conflict is widely seen as a war
between Khamenei’s regime and Israel, not as an attack on the populace. Many of
the callers are blaming Khamenei for “dragging the people into a pointless
war.”“Ordinary Iranians are falling victim to the decision of one person: Ali
Khamenei,” railed Farshid, who phoned in from Tehran.
“We are not compatriots with those who execute our kids,” exclaimed Artemis, who
called Iran International — a London-based satellite channel popular among the
Iranian diaspora — to voice her frustration with the regime’s attempts to
exploit Iranians’ deeply held sense of patriotism and use it against Israel. The
Islamic Republic has long been hostile to Iranian nationalism, criminalizing the
observance of ancient Persian holidays and preventing people from visiting the
tomb of Cyrus the Great. It takes a great deal of effort to turn such a
patriotic people against their government — yet the regime has achieved exactly
that.“We trust that Israel will not strike us [ordinary people],” said one
caller to a Persian-language outlet. Another told BBC Persian, “These attacks
are not targeting the people, they [aim] to eliminate [regime] leaders.” Social
media clips from the last few nights of airstrikes reflect similar sentiments
among many Iranians, if not all.In one June 14 video, young people dance as they
watch the Israeli air raids through their window.
“They strike, we dance,” a woman comments.A similar clip posted the same day
shows a few friends casually discussing the attacks on their balcony as the sky
above them lights up with kinetic engagement, while a June 13 video shows people
drinking alcohol over a festive picnic as the sky lights up with anti-aircraft
fire. While callers understandably voice concern about civilian deaths, their
comments cannot be mistaken for sympathy with the theocracy.
The majority see the Islamic Republic as the instigator — not Israel.
This growing divide between the people and the regime’s anti-Israel fixation has
been evident, especially among Iran’s young people.“No to Gaza, no to Lebanon,
my life for Iran” was the youth protest chant of 2009; by 2018, their cries
sharpened to “Death to Palestine.”
Soccer fans in Tehran repeated such anti-Palestinian slogans in the wake of
Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, massacre, as did a group of students whose school
administrators tried to lead them in a “Death to Israel” chant.
Despite the challenges of polling under repression, various surveys have
consistently shown that most Iranians reject the regime’s anti-Israel foreign
policy. A 2022 poll by the Paris-based Ipsos Group found that a majority of
Iranians support better relations with Israel, while a 2021 study by the
Netherlands-based GAMAAN research foundation revealed that most Iranians oppose
the regime’s “Death to Israel” rhetoric. Pro-Israel sentiment has become so
widespread in recent days that authorities have announced a crackdown on those
posting content deemed to be “in support of the Zionist terrorist regime” — a
crime carrying a prison sentence of up to five years.State media have reported
the arrests of at least 60 people across seven provinces for uploading videos of
the attacks or for “welcoming the Israeli strikes.”
Some are being held on Israel-linked espionage charges — and are reportedly
facing death sentences. With the regime’s propaganda machine in full gear and
suppression intensifying, Washington must pursue maximum support for the Iranian
people.
The Islamic Republic’s claim that it is merely defending the national interest
has collapsed, and Iranians are making it clear — even in the face of arrest and
execution — that Khamenei’s war is not theirs.
Janatan Sayeh, a Tehran-born research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies, focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s
regional malign influence.
A major battle in The Long War ... The roots of the current
Middle East conflict trace back centuries
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/June 19/2025
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/jun/17/roots-middle-east-conflict-trace-back-centuries/
In 1979, I spent several months in Iran covering what was then called the
Iranian Revolution. My attempts to learn Farsi were unsuccessful. But all these
years later, two phrases stick in my mind: “Marg bar Esrāʾil!” and “Marg bar
Āmrikā!”
Many of my fellow reporters insisted that “Death to Israel!” and “Death to
America!” should not be taken literally or even seriously.
And many Iranians didn’t believe that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the religious
leader who led the revolution, intended to become a dictator and mass murderer.
They failed to understand that Mr. Khomeini’s antipathy toward the “Little
Satan” and the “Great Satan” was implacable – subject to neither negotiation nor
compromise. He was committed to Islamic revival. He believed that could be
achieved only through a great struggle against the West, with a particular focus
on the sole Jewish-majority nation-state.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who in 1989 became the second Supreme Leader of the
Islamic Republic of Iran, has unwaveringly adhered to Khomenist theology.
In a public address two years ago, he stated plainly: “The situation between
America and Iran is this: When you chant ‘Death to America!’ it is not just a
slogan – it is a policy.” Last week, Israel launched a wave of attacks against
Mr. Khamenei’s regime to prevent him from acquiring the nuclear capability
needed to implement his “policy.”This is a major battle in what analysts at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the think tank where I hang my hat, have
been calling The Long War.
I know, I know: We all dislike “forever wars” or “endless wars” or whatever term
is preferred by those who brand themselves “restrainers.” But when our enemies
are patient, what are we to do?
One choice: Decisively defeat them. Don’t settle for “exit strategies.” Demand
“unconditional surrender” as Roosevelt did during the war against Nazi Germany
and Imperial Japan.
Another choice: Retreat. Let our enemies live to fight another day. Try to
appease them while “managing decline.” We can pretend that’s “responsible
statecraft.” But it’s nothing of the sort.
Though the battle now raging began when Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza on Oct.
7, 2023, the roots of this conflict trace back much farther.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is committed – and I’m quoting from its
constitution – to “jihad in the way of Allah.”
The jihad began in the 7th century CE when Arab Muslim armies defeated the
Byzantine Empire in the Levant and conquered Iran, a sophisticated civilization
under the Sasanian Empire.
Zoroastrians, then the dominant Iranian religious group, suffered persecution,
including massacres, the destruction of their temples, and expulsions. Only a
small and oppressed minority remains in Iran today.
Mr. Khamenei disparages his country’s pre-Islamic past including even the era of
Cyrus the Great, founder of the first Persian Empire in 6th century BCE who
liberated his Jewish subjects and enabled their return to Jerusalem. He calls
the centuries prior to the Muslim conquests an “Age of Ignorance” (Jahiliyyah).
Recall that in 1979, ABC News correspondent Peter Jennings asked Ayatollah
Khomeini how he felt about returning to his home country after years in exile.
His answer: “Nothing. I don’t feel a thing.”
In 1980, having become the Islamic Republic’s first Supreme Leader, the
Ayatollah elaborated: “We do not worship Iran. We worship Allah. For patriotism
is another name for paganism. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam
emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.”
If you understand this, you grasp why it made no sense for President Obama, in
his 2009 inaugural address, to admonish Iran’s dictator for being “on the wrong
side of history,” and offering to “extend a hand if you are willing to unclench
your fist.”
President Trump has taken a more strategic approach. Consistent with the Reagan
Doctrine, he’s supporting an ally battling a common enemy.
And consistent with the diplomatic philosophy of George Shultz, he cast “the
shadow of power” across the bargaining table, understanding that without that,
negotiations are a “euphemism for capitulation.”
The conventional wisdom – which I confess I shared – had been that President
Trump would rein in the Israelis until the negotiations being conducted by his
envoy, Steve Witkoff, resulted in a deal or a dead end.
With a new round of talks scheduled for last weekend, the regime’s leaders were
caught sleeping (in some cases literally) when, on Friday, the Israelis struck
nuclear weapons facilities and other military targets, while simultaneously
eliminating nuclear weapons scientists, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
officers, and political leaders. The Israelis, as is their consistent practice,
have been doing their best to limit collateral damage. Many if not most Iranians
despise Mr. Khamenei and his brutally oppressive regime.
If those Iranians take this opportunity to overthrow the now-weakened theocrats,
they’ll deserve all the help that Americans and other free peoples can give
them.
Following the first Israeli strike, President Trump noted on social media: “Two
months ago I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to ‘make a deal. They should have done
it! Today is day 61.”Earlier on day 61, the International Atomic Energy Agency
censured Tehran for deceiving the world about its nuclear program for decades.
President Trump has warned Mr. Khamenei that more attacks were coming and that
they would be “even more brutal.” He added: “[M]ake a deal.”
The octogenarian jihadi is may now be considering that. But it’s also possible
that, as a true believer, he’d prefer to end his life as a martyr to the
Khomenist Revolution.
If so, Israelis will be safer. Americans will be safer. And Iranians will have a
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to forge a free nation.
**Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), a columnist for the Washington Times, and host of the
“Foreign Podicy” podcast.
Erdogan Attempts to Rally the Muslim World Against Israel
Sinan Ciddi and Tyler Stapleton/FDD Policy Brief/June 19/2025
Turkey wants pressure from Muslim leaders to hamstring Israel’s military
campaign against Iran. Immediately following Israel’s precision strikes against
Iran’s nuclear facilities, atomic scientists, and military leadership, Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel’s actions. He then initiated a
frenzy of telephone diplomacy with regional heads of state, urging them to
denounce Israel’s attack.
Erdogan described Jerusalem’s strikes as a “provocation,” asserting that the
Jewish state “disregarded international law” while remaining silent about
Tehran’s illicit nuclear efforts. He also accused Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu “and his massacre network” of “setting [the] entire region on
fire.” With such rhetoric, Erdogan seeks to position himself as Israel’s most
vocal critic in the region, vying to replace a weakened Iran.
Turkey Accuses Israel of Destabilizing the Middle East
On June 13, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, convened a meeting of the
country’s top national security officials, including Defense Minister Yasar
Guler, Director of National Intelligence (MIT) Ibrahim Kalin, and Chairman of
the General Staff Metin Gurak. The four echoed Erdogan’s sentiments, and Fidan
issued a joint statement claiming that Israel is “destabiliz[ing] Lebanon,
invad[ing] Syria and is now targeting Iran.” The statement added that the Jewish
state “must immediately abandon its strategy of destabilizing the region.”
Erdogan Works the Phones
On June 14 and June 15, Erdogan placed telephone calls to the leaders of Saudi
Arabia, Pakistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, Egypt, and Jordan — with the common
theme of pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end Israel’s
military campaign against Iran. Erdogan also called Iranian President Masoud
Pezeshkian to offer his “condolences to the Iranian people over the loss of
lives” and stressed that Israel’s entire motivation for targeting Iran was to
“divert the world’s attention away from the genocide in Gaza.” Erdogan also
spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump, offering Turkish efforts to mediate a
diplomatic end to the hostilities between Iran and Israel.
Erdogan Attempts to Pose as Peacemaker While Backing Hamas
Despite portraying himself as a leader who loathes war and instability,
Erdogan’s calls for diplomacy between Jerusalem and Tehran contrast awkwardly
with his ongoing support for Hamas. For years, even after the October 7, 2023,
massacre against Israel, Turkey has served as a forward operating base for
senior Hamas leadership. Turkey has also allowed the organization to engage in
fundraising and recruitment and to plan terrorist attacks against the Jewish
state.
U.S. Must Not Sell F-35s to Turkey
Washington should not mistake Erdogan’s diplomacy for actual peacemaking.
Furthermore, Washington must warn Ankara against any engagement either by itself
or in concert with other regional powers, that targets Israel militarily.
While Turkey remains a NATO member, the United States should not provide Ankara
with advanced weapon systems it might share with U.S. adversaries, potentially
undermining U.S. superiority on the battlefield. Accordingly, the first Trump
administration removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019 after
Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. Congress later
codified in law Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program so long as it possesses
the S-400.
Since the Trump administration returned to office in January 2025, Ankara has
increased its efforts to persuade the White House to circumvent the
congressional prohibition via tendentious interpretations of key words in the
statutory language. The White House should brush aside such bad-faith efforts
and be clear that it will enforce the law precisely as Congress intended.
Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 also triggered sanctions under the Countering of
America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), and these sanctions should
remain in place as long as Ankara maintains its significant relationship with
the Russian defense establishment. If Turkey wants all the benefits of being a
U.S. ally, it must behave like one.
**Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
Tyler Stapleton is director of congressional relations at FDD Action. For more
analysis from Sinan and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow them on X @SinanCiddi
and @Ty_D_Stapleton. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based,
nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
FDD Action is a non-profit, non-partisan 501(c)(4) organization related to FDD,
established to advocate for effective policies to promote U.S. national security
and defend free nations.
10 Things to Know About Tehran’s Propaganda Network, the
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting
Bridget Toomey and Toby Dershowitz/FDD Insight/June 19/2025
Israel struck the Tehran headquarters of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Broadcasting (IRIB) on June 16, damaging a key regime media organ. IRIB is far
from an independent news channel. Rather, it is a tool of the Islamic Republic
that uses torture and other unlawful and internationally condemned punitive
techniques to intimidate the Iranian population and deter dissent.
1. IRIB is the clerical regime’s primary propaganda and disinformation arm.
“IRIB and its subsidiaries act not as objective media outlets but rather as a
critical tool in the Iranian government’s mass suppression and censorship
campaign against its own people,” the U.S. Treasury Department explained in
2022. IRIB not only broadcasts a narrative sympathetic to the Islamist regime
but also attempts to garner support, domestically and internationally, for
Tehran and its organs of oppression. The organization enables the torture and
prosecution of Iranians by sharing coerced confessions and impugning the
character of anti-regime Iranians. FDD has termed IRIB “Torture TV” for its role
in disseminating coerced confessions.
2. IRIB has a near monopoly on broadcast media in Iran.
Inside Iran, IRIB operates 19 national television channels. The regime maintains
IRIB’s position by restricting private satellites and international frequencies.
Tehran banned this technology in 1994 in a law that directs the Basij forces to
confiscate satellites and receivers. The regime has attempted to block Starlink
access in Iran after citizens began smuggling the equipment into the country.
3. IRIB’s conduct violates international law, but Iran’s legislature and
executive leadership explicitly permit it.
Forced false confessions are flagrant violations of international conventions,
including the United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman
or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. Despite a prohibition on torture in the
Islamic Republic’s constitution, subsequent Iranian legislation, specifically
the Discretionary Punishment Law, has permitted torture, including for the
purpose of procuring confessions. IRIB also manipulates footage of individuals
to create the illusion of a confession when there was none. In response to
nationwide protests in November 2019, Iran’s political leadership, including
then President Hassan Rouhani, publicly called for the broadcasting of
confessions elicited from the protestors.
4. The supreme leader appoints the head of IRIB.
According to the constitution of the Islamic Republic, the supreme leader
selects the head of IRIB. The constitution says that broadcasts must be “in
keeping with the Islamic criteria and the best interests of the country.” The
supreme leader’s control maintains the extremist orientation of IRIB and ensures
the clerical regime has a tight hand on broadcasting in Iran. Previous Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini described confessions as “the highest proof
of guilt” despite the known use of torture by operatives of the regime. Given
this control and Khomeini’s declared support for forced confessions, IRIB has no
incentive or desire to reform this criminal, unlawful, and abusive practice.
5. The United States, Canada, and the European Union have imposed sanctions on
IRIB and/or its employees for their role in forced confessions.
The United States designated IRIB in 2013, and Canada did the same in 2016. In
2022, the U.S. Treasury Department designated IRIB’s current director general,
Peyman Jebelli, and six IRIB senior employees for their role in coerced
confessions. “IRIB has produced and recently broadcast televised interviews of
individuals being forced to confess that their relatives were not killed by
Iranian authorities during nationwide protests but died due to accidental,
unrelated causes,” Treasury noted. The European Union has also designated
Jebelli, past directors general, and key IRIB employees. The European Union
likewise designated leaders of Press TV, an English- and French-language
subsidiary of IRIB, for televising forced confessions.
6. IRIB works with the Ministry of Intelligence (MOI) and the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran’s MOI and IRGC coordinate with IRIB and the judiciary to convict
individuals as criminals in sham trials, sometimes leading to the death penalty.
MOI and the IRGC coerce confessions through torture and craft confessions that
they force prisoners to recite. Both MOI and the IRGC are U.S.-listed Specially
Designated Global Terrorist entities, and the IRGC is additionally designated as
a foreign terrorist organization. Both designations allow Washington to impose a
range of penalties on MOI and the IRGC.
7. Human rights organizations have no access to political prisoners, but IRIB
does.
Hamid Rez Emadi, senior producer and newsroom director of Press TV, interviewed
Maziar Bahari in the notorious Evin Prison. Bahari, an Iranian-Canadian
journalist, provided IRIB with a false confession in exchange for his freedom.
However, the regime continued to torture him for over two months. While Bahari
is one of the more well-known cases, most victims go unnoticed by the global
human rights community. Prisoners in Evin and other Iranian jails are often
denied medical care, family visits, and other basic rights.
8. IRIB falsely accuses detainees of serving as agents of foreign governments,
particularly adversaries of the regime.
In coerced confessions, prisoners often falsely admit to serving as operatives
of the regime’s enemies, notably the United States and Israel, which the Islamic
Republic calls the “great Satan” and the “little Satan,” respectively. IRIB uses
forced false confessions to publicize these lies, then promotes them online or
in show trials. Ahmadreza Djalali, an Iranian-Swedish physician, is currently on
death row, falsely accused of serving as an agent of the Mossad, Israel’s
intelligence organization. He has stated that his confession was coerced and
that the real reason for his arrest was his refusal to collaborate with MOI. The
regime’s allegations constitute an attempt to delegitimize political opponents
and to justify extreme punishments. IRIB also seeks to vilify countries the
regime sees as adversaries.
9. IRIB engages in information and influence operations abroad.
Iranian authorities believe that the survival of the Islamic Republic requires
an information war and influence operations throughout the world. This has led
the regime to leverage digital media that it hopes will boost its propaganda. In
2021, Meta, which operates Facebook and other social media platforms, exposed
IRIB for running covert influence operations targeting the United States. The
cybersecurity firms FireEye and ClearSky later linked IRIB’s exposed operation
to the International Union of Virtual Media, an Iranian influence front that is
active globally. Facebook caught IRIB’s Pars Today running covert influence
operations on Facebook in West Africa in 2019.
10. IRIB operates an extensive network of non-Persian news outlets.
Beyond IRIB’s domestic networks, IRIB’s disinformation and propaganda network
has a global reach, broadcasting eight international television channels. These
include non-Farsi channels, such as a religious Arabic channel, that broadcast
in English, Spanish, and other languages. IRIB also produces radio programs in
32 languages across the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. These international
programs portray the regime in a positive light, ignore human rights abuses, and
attempt to conceal Tehran’s anti-Western views. IRIB also broadcasts forced
confessions on its international programs, sometimes in violation of local laws.
To facilitate IRIB’s international programming, Tehran tripled IRIB’s annual
budget for 2025, earmarking $480 million for the outfit, the first time it has
seen such a jump.
**Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where she focuses on Iranian proxies, specifically Iraqi
militias and the Houthis. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research
institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Toby Dershowitz is
the managing director at FDD Action. FDD Action is a non-partisan 501(c)(4)
organization established to advocate for effective policies to promote U.S.
national security and defend free nations. For more analysis from Bridget, Toby,
and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Bridget on X @BridgetKToomey. Follow Toby
on X @TobyDersh. Follow FDD on X @FDD.
Why Are Gulf Countries Not Speaking Out Against Their Rival Iran?
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/June 19, 2025
Since 1979, Iran has been a problem for Arab Gulf capitals. Tehran has exported
its radical Islamism and terrorism across the region, built loyalist militias,
agitated popular opinion against Gulf governments, and pursued a nuclear weapon.
Yet, when Israel sent its fighter jets to finally confront the troublemaking
Iranian regime, all six nations of the Gulf Countries Council (GCC) behaved in a
mind-boggling way: They denounced “the Israeli aggression” and worked the
phones, including with President Trump, to “de-escalate” the situation. There is
an explanation for the Gulf’s behavior.
Abdul-Rahman al-Rashed, one of the sharpest Saudi intellectuals, explained the
Saudi thinking. In an interview last September, Rashed said that Riyadh lost
confidence in America’s commitment to Saudi security.
In 2019, Iran struck Saudi oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. After saying
that America was “locked and loaded” to punish Iran in response, President Trump
called off the American strike.
Rashed argues that Riyadh was not seeking the US military to fight on behalf of
the Saudis, but that the kingdom believed it was protected by American
deterrence against its enemies — and Washington let them down.
The Saudi intellectual also said that war with Iran would be much costlier to
the Saudis than to the Iranians. The kingdom is among the top 20 economies in
the world, and has six or more thriving economic centers. Iran’s puny economy,
however, means that Tehran has little to lose in case of war.
Because American unpredictability eroded Saudi confidence, the kingdom decided
to seek an alternative. In 2023, Riyadh restored relations with Tehran. The
agreement was signed in Beijing, in the hope that China — the senior partner in
its alliance with Iran — could guarantee Iranian non-belligerence toward the
kingdom.
To curry more favor with Tehran, in April 2025, Riyadh deployed its
second-in-command and MBS’s brother, Defense Minister Khaled, to Iran. The Saudi
official warned Iranians of an impending strike if Tehran did not give up its
uranium enrichment. To its detriment, Tehran ignored the Saudi warning.
Even after Israel’s impressive opening act in the war with Islamist Iran, the
Saudis still did not rejoice. Perhaps Riyadh calculated that if the Islamist
regime in Tehran falls, they will be relieved, but if it does not, the Saudis
would have curried enough favor with the Iranians that would spare the kingdom
Tehran’s post-war wrath.
Hedging has also been part of the calculus of the second biggest GCC country,
the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE had a bitter military
experience with Trump. In 2019, when pro-Emirati forces were about to take the
strategic Port of Hodeida from the Houthis in Yemen, Washington urged them to
step back. Once again, an Arab state felt it could not count on the US for
support against Iran.
And just as Saudi Arabia’s economic centers are vulnerable to Iranian missiles,
so are the UAE’s main cities — Dubai and Abu Dhabi — which the late Hezbollah
chief Hassan Nasrallah called “glass cities” and threatened to smash.
Under President Biden, the Gulf had an even tougher time dealing with
Washington. Biden had promised to turn Saudi Arabia into a pariah state, stopped
the sale of offensive weapons to Riyadh in the middle of its war against the
Houthis, suspended an F-35 sale to the UAE, and removed the Houthis from the US
terrorism list.
Biden reversed all these measures, but the damage had already been done. When he
knocked on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi’s doors, inviting them to join a US-led
coalition against the Houthis, the two Gulf governments balked. America’s
credibility problem persisted.
Without American deterrence and enough air defense, the economically prosperous
Saudis and Emiratis have much more to lose than the impoverished Iranians and
their militias. This is why, while wishing that the Iran regime would collapse,
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have not publicly expressed such a sentiment. Unofficial
Saudi voices might still be heard on social media, capturing the true anti-Iran
popular sentiment — but the governments themselves are taking a “wait and see”
approach.
In May, President Trump visited Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha (Qatar’s capital).
Qatar’s policy significantly differs from that of its two bigger GCC neighbors.
On Tuesday, former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad Bin Jasim, argued on X that “the
Gulf region will pay, and is already paying, a heavy price” for the
Israeli-Iranian war. “It is not in the interest of Gulf states to see Iran,
their large neighbor, collapse. Such a situation would inevitably lead to a
destructive spiral … with severe consequences for everyone.”
To avoid such an eventuality, Hamad suggested that Gulf capitals use their
influence with Washington to “immediately halt the Israeli madness.”
Also on X, a Saudi columnist immediately rebutted the former Qatari official.
“Your tweet reflects [only] the Qatari position on the Iranian regime,” wrote
Saleh al-Fhaid.
“Many Gulf citizens [believe] that Iran is more dangerous to them than Israel,”
Fhaid added. “The overthrow of the mullahs’ regime is thus in the interest of
Gulf states, and the price of this regime’s demise, however painful, harsh, and
costly, is far less than the state of attrition that this regime has been
practicing against Gulf states for four decades.”
Fhaid then explained the motive behind Qatar’s pro-Iran position: “Some Gulf
states view the mullahs’ regime as a guarantee for creating a regional balance.
Other Gulf states view the mullahs’ regime as an existential threat.”
The debate in GCC nations, over the fate of Iran’s Islamist regime, is vibrant,
even if muffled. The general sentiment wants to see the regime gone. As Fhaid
spelled it out, the governments of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait
see Islamist Iran as an existential threat. Qatar and Oman believe that they can
use Iran to offset Saudi Arabia. All six governments pretend that neutrality and
mediation is their best bet — but each one of the two blocs hopes for a
different outcome.
**Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at The Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies (FDD).
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