English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 16/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
The Judgment Day: Then he will say to those at his left hand, "You that are
accursed, depart from me into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his
angels; for I was hungry and you gave me no food, I was thirsty and you gave me
nothing to drink, I was a stranger and you did not welcome me, naked and you did
not give me clothing, sick and in prison and you did not visit me.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
25/31-46/:"‘When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him,
then he will sit on the throne of his glory. All the nations will be gathered
before him, and he will separate people one from another as a shepherd separates
the sheep from the goats, and he will put the sheep at his right hand and the
goats at the left. Then the king will say to those at his right hand, "Come, you
that are blessed by my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the
foundation of the world; for I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty
and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me, I was
naked and you gave me clothing, I was sick and you took care of me, I was in
prison and you visited me." Then the righteous will answer him, "Lord, when was
it that we saw you hungry and gave you food, or thirsty and gave you something
to drink? And when was it that we saw you a stranger and welcomed you, or naked
and gave you clothing? And when was it that we saw you sick or in prison and
visited you?" And the king will answer them, "Truly I tell you, just as you did
it to one of the least of these who are members of my family, you did it to me."
Then he will say to those at his left hand, "You that are accursed, depart from
me into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels; for I was hungry
and you gave me no food, I was thirsty and you gave me nothing to drink, I was a
stranger and you did not welcome me, naked and you did not give me clothing,
sick and in prison and you did not visit me." Then they also will answer, "Lord,
when was it that we saw you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or
in prison, and did not take care of you?" Then he will answer them, "Truly I
tell you, just as you did not do it to one of the least of these, you did not do
it to me."And these will go away into eternal punishment, but the righteous into
eternal life.’"
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 15-16/2025
Khamenei's, Hezbollah's, Berri's Thugs & all gangs of the so-called
“Resistance” understand only the language of their uncle, Netanyahu. We Ask Him
to Discipline Them./Elias Bejjani/February 15, 2025
Text & Video/For These Reasons, We Fear the Nasserite Arabists, Fatah
Supporters, and Leftists Like Nawaf Salam and Tarek Mitri/Elias Bejjani/February
15/2025
Us and the Hyena’s Tale/Edmond El-Chidiac/February 15/2025
Let Us Not Allow the Spirit of Freedom to Weaken Within Us!/Edmond El-Chidiac/February
15/2025
Important political commentary by journalist Ali Hamadeh
Lebanon will not rise as long as the armed militias impose their dominance
without restraint, and as long as Hezbollah acts as an authority above the
state, without deterrence & accountability/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/ X
Platform/February 15/ 2025
Aoun vows no leniency with security violators after airport road riots
Lebanon's President to US Senator: Israel must withdraw within agreed deadline
of Feb. 18
Hezbollah and Amal distance themselves from protesters' attack on UNIFIL
Tear gas and stone-throwing: Chaos erupts at Hezbollah demonstration in Beirut
Army fires tear gas to disperse official Hezbollah sit-in on airport road
Hezbollah supporters resume protests over Iran flight ban, Israeli-U.S.
'demands'
LBCI sources: Investigation identifies one suspect in UNIFIL assault, flammable
substance thrown at patrol
Lebanon Says 25 Arrested after Attack on UN Peacekeepers
Israeli Drone Strike in Jarjouh: 2 Killed and 4 Wounded
Israel says targeted key member of Hezbollah air unit in drone strike
Investigation and interference: Protest over Iranian flights ban turns violent
as UNIFIL hit
Lebanon Official Media Report Israeli Drone Strike in South on Saturday
Iran says ready for 'constructive talks' with Lebanon on resuming flights
Messing with security is forbidden and the state will strike with an iron fist
Marwan Hamadeh: Hafez al-Assad Told Us, ‘Forget Bachir Gemayel,' and he Was
Assassinated 4 Days Later/Beirut: Ghassan Charbel/February 15/2025
The Regalian Function and the Poor Exercise of Power/Charles Elias Chartouni/This
is Beirut/February 15/2025
Claude A Hillar Hajjar/Open Letter To The Honorable President Donald J. Trump, &
To the Members of the Administration,
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 15-16/2025
Syrian stabs passersby in Austrian town, killing one, police say
Rubio arrives in Israel on first Middle East tour
Israel and Hamas complete new exchange of captives
Israel Begins Freeing over 300 Palestinian Prisoners after Receiving 3 Hostages
Bus Carrying Freed Palestinian Prisoners Arrives in Ramallah
Thousands of pro-Palestinians march in UK against Trump’s Gaza plan
Iran Confirms Receiving 'Messages' from New Syrian Government
Turkey says it would reconsider its military presence in Syria if Kurdish
militants are eliminated
GCC Secretary-General Meets with NATO Military Committee Chairman
Zelenskiy Rebuffs US Draft Proposal on Critical Minerals
UK's Foreign Minister: US, Ukraine Should Deepen Partnership
US-Europe differences come to the fore at Munich conference
World Bank: Red Sea Crisis Raises Global Shipping Costs by 141%
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on February 15-16/2025
Trump's First Big Disastrous Mistake...Iran's nuclear facilities
must be taken out, sanctions must be intensified, and the Iranian people's fight
for freedom must be supported./Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/February
15, 2025
Between Iran’s Apprehension and America’s Recklessness/Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al
Awsat/February 15/2025
Iran: Gravy Train to Africa/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
How Syrians can pursue justice, fast-track peace in post-conflict era/ANAN TELLO/Arab
News/February 15, 2025
Netanyahu loves presents and he got one while visiting Washington/Yossi
Mekelberg/Arab News/February 15, 2025
Unity, stability the key goals of Syria’s post-Baathist transition/Dr. Gyorgy
Busztin/Arab News/February 15, 2025
Why ‘peak pessimism’ about Europe is overdone/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/February
15, 2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on February 15-16/2025
Khamenei's, Hezbollah's, Berri's Thugs & all gangs of the so-called “Resistance”
understand only the language of their uncle, Netanyahu. We Ask Him to Discipline
Them.
Elias Bejjani/February 15, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140222/
Can someone tell us what happens to the stupidity, hysteria, terrorism, and
street-thug mentality of Nasrallah, Khamenei, and Berri’s gangs, when just one
Israeli drone appears over their rotten, hollow heads near the airport? Panic,
wailing, chaos, and infighting, without a doubt! And they will scatter like
rats, tripping over each other in terror. Enough of their filth and corruption!
Let them be buried in their cowardice. And to the government, the president, and
the army—take action! Discipline them, cleanse the country of their disease, and
finally fulfill the mission that the international community entrusted you with.
No more half-measures with Iran and its criminal proxies. Either get the job
done or step aside!
Text & Video/For These Reasons, We
Fear the Nasserite Arabists, Fatah Supporters, and Leftists Like Nawaf Salam and
Tarek Mitri
Elias Bejjani/February 15/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140191/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1zFkE_4Me8&t=9s
In Lebanon, some—leftists, fake nationalists, eternal adversaries of Israel, and
those who trade in the deception of so-called "resistance &
Liberation"—criticize us (The Lebanese Patriots) for labeling Nawaf Salam and
Tarek Mitri as Nasserite Arabists and as Palestinians more Palestinian than
Arafat the Muslim Brotherhood loyalist, George Habash the leftist, and Yahya
Sinwar the jihadist. They accuse us of being Lebanese nationalists, opposing the
Taif Agreement, and advocating for federalism and partition.
Rather than engaging in futile debates with Lebanon’s enemies and those who
reject the Christian role in governing the country, we respond firmly and
unapologetically, relying on the facts and history that expose the true nature
of these figures and their ideology:
Abdel Nasser Nasser and all the officers who overthrew King Farouk’s regime in
Egypt were members of the Muslim Brotherhood. There is no need to elaborate on
the hatred, extremism, and radical objectives of this jihadist movement.
Abdel Nasser, who infused Arabism with Brotherhood ideology, led the region into
ignorance, populism, and fanaticism, culminating in one of the greatest defeats
in Arab history. He failed in his union with Syria, his war in Yemen, his
hostility toward the Gulf states, and in every civilian, military, social, and
political endeavor. Today, few in Egypt even know where his grave is.
Meanwhile, Palestinian organizations—chief among them Fatah, which Nawaf Salam,
Tarek Mitri, and many others supported under the deceptive umbrella of the
so-called "National Movement"—turned against Lebanon, its people, and its
government, particularly the Christians. They waged wars, launched invasions,
and committed massacres, all while promoting delusions that the road to
Palestine passed through Jounieh. In this, they are no different from Iran’s
mullahs and their jihadist proxies, including Hezbollah, who—by deliberate
choice—have never once found the road to Jerusalem. According to their twisted
logic, the road to Jerusalem passes through Damascus, Baghdad, and Cairo. Today,
their deceit has evolved, and now, the road supposedly runs through Beirut
International Airport!
As for the Arabists and Fake nationalists—whether Baathists, Syrian
nationalists, leftists, communists, or others consumed by hatred for everything,
including themselves, their people, and their homelands (excluding the Gulf Arab
identity, which fundamentally opposes Nasserite and Arafatist Arabism)—their
record of failures and betrayals is immeasurable. They are not only Lebanon’s
enemies but also their own worst adversaries. With the fall of Assad’s regional
influence, they have vanished from every ruling Arab government. It is also
worth noting that Erdogan and Qatar’s rulers belong to the same jihadist breed,
and the devastation of Gaza is a direct consequence of their policies.
This is why our concern for Lebanon and its people is both urgent and
justified—against every Arabist, Nasserite, leftist, fake nationalist, mullah
loyalist, and deceiver who chants about throwing Israel into the sea,
"liberating" Palestine, and praying in Jerusalem.
Based on all of the above, and because Nawaf Salam, Tarek Mitri, and perhaps
Ghassan Salamé are deeply rooted in the defeatist, deceptive ideology of Arafat
and Nasser—one built on manipulation, false resistance, and perpetual failure
(Arafat himself was a prominent Muslim Brotherhood member)—we have every right
to reject them in the current new Lebanese government, or at least to fear their
non-Lebanese agendas. How can we be trustful when the newly formed government’s
primary mission must be the complete eradication of Iranian influence, embodied
in Hezbollah’s terrorist network, and active participation in the Arab-Israeli
peace process embraced by all Arab states.
Ultimately, the mindset and ideology of leftists, Nasserite Arabists, mullah
loyalists, Islamists, and jihadists are, at their core, one and the same.
Us and the
Hyena’s Tale
Edmond El-Chidiac/February 15/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140220/
No matter how much we rally behind the army, debate the power of
elections, or convince ourselves that our voices matter, Hezbollah ensures that
every national, humanitarian, and hopeful moment is reduced to just another
chapter in their story. Especially now. The moment we dare to believe in change,
they move—swiftly, methodically—occupying every space, suffocating any glimmer
of optimism. Out of the kindness of their hearts, of course . They wouldn’t want
us to be too disappointed later. So considerate and thoughtful of them.
One day, we will wake up. Hopefully soon. Where we will realize that honor
codes, faith in democracy, and belief in diplomacy mean nothing unless Lebanon
is, first and foremost, free. No illusion of civility, no elections, no
government that includes Hezbollah can ever bring real reform. Civil
disobedience, rejection of their treachery, and resistance—real resistance—are
the only paths forward.
A free Lebanon is a clean Lebanon. Only then will this country function as it
should, where all citizens stand as equals, where Lebanon belongs to its
people—all its people. But until we wake up, until we accept that force must be
met with force, we will remain prey to the same beast.
When a hyena attacks, you don’t offer it coffee and goodwill and expect it to
change. Its nature is to devour. And that what it will do.
Good night, Lebanon. May we wake up to a homeland.
Let Us Not Allow the Spirit of Freedom to Weaken Within Us!
Edmond El-Chidiac/February 15/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140220/
These words were spoken by Father Salim Abou, President of Saint
Joseph University – Beirut, on the occasion of the university's annual
celebration on March 19, 2003, at the Science and Technology Campus (Mar Roukoz).
Let us not allow the spirit of freedom to weaken within us!
We are called to reject the status quo.
The positive counterpart to this rejection is, as former Czech President Václav
Havel reminds us, "the ability to tirelessly repeat what we desire." He says:
*"We can all openly declare our ideals and strive earnestly to uphold them. We
can all also sacrifice a significant portion of our personal happiness for these
ideals if we truly believe (…) that there are things worth suffering for (…).
In short, we can understand that each one of us is capable of changing the
world, even if they are of no particular significance or hold no authority. This
principle is mysterious and remarkable because it carries the astonishing idea
that any one of us, in some way, can shake the world. And it is a logical
principle because if neither I nor you nor he nor we all decide to take this
path, then the world we live in, which we contribute to shaping and for which we
are responsible, will never change."*
He concludes with this phrase:
"Let us strive to be mad and demand, with the utmost seriousness, that what
appears unchangeable must indeed change."
In reality, our fiercest enemy lies within us—it is the temptation to surrender
to the status quo. In our current situation, if there is any stance we must
resist, it is submission to the status quo.
Let us not allow the taste of freedom to spoil within us!
Opposition must grow stronger, expand, and remain steadfast in its central goal:
demanding Lebanon’s independence and sovereignty. The silent majority, who share
this ideal, must dare to challenge prohibitions and express their opinions.
Let us embrace the act of faith proclaimed by the great sociologist Raymond Aron,
who said:
"We accept the risks of freedom and democracy, and we wager that ongoing debate
will not, despite everything, prevent civil peace from prevailing, and that the
clash of individual interests will allow decisions to emerge that serve the
nation's interest. We prefer the disorder and noise of free societies to the
superficial tranquility of regimes where those in power claim to possess the
truth and impose a way of thinking, speaking, and acting on their citizens—or
rather, their subjects. We choose societies where opposition is considered a
public service, not a crime."
Let us not allow the flame of freedom to tremble within us!
Important
political commentary by journalist Ali Hamadeh
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140242/
Video Link for a political commentary by journalist Ali Hamadeh provides a
detailed explanation of Hezbollah and Iran’s decision to gradually and violently
overthrow both the internal and external political order. The plan includes
orchestrating strikes to destabilize the new government, obstructing the
implementation of the ceasefire agreement, refusing to disarm, and promoting the
false narrative that no agreement obliges theis terrorist Iranian Militia to
halt what it deceitfully calls “resistance,” with Iran firmly backing this
stance.
It is worth noting that all Lebanese factions reject Hezbollah’s schemes and its
refusal to acknowledge the reality of its deepening crisis. The recent chaos
around Beirut International Airport — including roadblocks, inciting statements,
and accusations of treason against President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister
Nawaf Salam — are clear indicators of this dangerous trajectory.
Security information reveals that Hezbollah has made a deliberate decision to
initiate a gradual coup against President Aoun and the Salam government. The
pressing question remains: Has Hezbollah decided to transition into a political
party without weapons and dissolve its militarization, or not? All practical
indicators clearly show that Hezbollah rejects this notion and insists on
maintaining its armed status, despite mere and strong opposition from all
segments of Lebanese society.
Lebanon will
not rise as long as the armed militias impose their dominance without restraint,
and as long as Hezbollah acts as an authority above the state, without
deterrence & accountability
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/ X Platform/February 15/ 2025
(Free translation from Arabic & titles by Elias Bejjani)
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140230/
The recent Hezbollah attack on a UNIFIL convoy en route to Beirut International
Airport is yet another stark reminder that Lebanon cannot rise as long as armed
militias impose their dominance unchecked and as long as Hezbollah operates as a
power above the state, without accountability and facing consequences.
Instead of prosecuting criminals and holding them responsible for the
devastation they have brought upon Lebanon, they are rewarded with government
positions and allowed to remain in Parliament and political life as if they were
saviors! How can a country be rebuilt by the very hands that destroyed it? And
how can those responsible for its collapse speak of “rescue” when they are the
root of the catastrophe?
Those who rule by force know only destruction. A nation that allows militias to
roam freely will never be built—it will remain hostage to foreign agendas that
consume its sovereignty, economy, and future.
Those who justify Hezbollah’s unchecked power under the pretext of “civil peace”
or the “right to represent the Shiite community” know well that Hezbollah and
its militias do not represent all Lebanese Shiites. They have hijacked the
community’s voice just as they have hijacked the Lebanese state. Lebanon is home
to patriotic men and women—Shiites, Sunnis, Christians, and Druze—who refuse to
see their country ruled by militias and used as a bargaining chip or a
battlefield for external powers.
The architects of Lebanon’s destruction must be held accountable. A state run by
warlords cannot stand, and a nation whose fate is dictated by chaos-driven
factions has no future. Lebanon needs statesmen, not warlords.
The government must assert its full sovereignty, starting with a ban on any flag
or banner other than the Lebanese national flag under penalty of law. There is
no legitimacy except for the flag of the nation—no allegiance except to Lebanon.
As for discussions about opening new airports, they may be necessary for
long-term economic reasons, but they must not serve as an escape from
confronting reality. The real solution is not to circumvent the problem but to
establish security and stability across Lebanon and prevent any force from
jeopardizing its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Aoun vows no
leniency with security violators after airport road riots
Agence France Presse/February 15/ 2025
President Joseph Aoun has vowed to punish the perpetrators of an attack on a
United Nations peacekeeping convoy, with authorities set to hold an emergency
meeting on Saturday. The U.N. and Lebanese authorities have condemned Friday's
attack, which came as Hezbollah supporters for a second night blocked the road
to the country's only international airport over a decision barring two Iranian
planes from landing there. Aoun "emphasized that the
attackers will receive their punishment" and said "security forces will not be
lenient with any party that tries to upset stability and civil peace," according
to a statement from the presidency on X. The U.N.
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has demanded an investigation after one of its
vehicles was set on fire during the incident, which wounded Nepalese outgoing
deputy force commander Chok Bahadur Dhakal as he was returning home.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam strongly condemned the "criminal attack" and
promised to arrest the perpetrators during a conversation with U.N. Special
Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and UNIFIL Commander General
Aroldo Lazaro. Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar has called an emergency
security meeting on Saturday at 11:00 am (0900 GMT), and said he visited two
injured UNIFIL officers in hospital, emphasizing "the Lebanese government's
rejection of this attack." The presidency's statement
said Aoun had also checked on the deputy commander's condition and emphasized
that the incident "cannot be allowed to be repeated."
Aoun also "followed up on developments regarding roadblocks, setting fires and
riots, and issued directives to the army and security forces to put a stop to
these practices," the statement said, adding that the judiciary "has begun
investigations on the ground."There was no immediate official comment from
Hezbollah. However, the group's ally the Amal Movement, led by powerful
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, said "the attack on UNIFIL is an attack on south
Lebanon" and that "blocking roads anywhere is an assault on civil peace."
'Absolutely unacceptable' -
The army said Friday that several areas around the airport had seen
"demonstrations marked by acts of vandalism and clashes, including assaults on
members of the armed forces and attacks against vehicles." Videos circulating on
social media showed demonstrators, some hooded and carrying Hezbollah flags,
attacking a man in military garb and another in civilian clothes near the
torched UNIFIL vehicle. U.N. chief Antonio Guterres condemned the incident, a
spokesman said Friday. "Such attacks are absolutely unacceptable... The safety
and security of U.N. personnel and property must be respected at all times," the
statement from spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. "Attacks against peacekeepers
are in breach of international law... and may constitute war crimes," the
statement said, adding that "UNIFIL must be allowed unrestricted freedom of
movement throughout Lebanon in the implementation of its mandated activities."
Israel has repeatedly accused Hezbollah of using Beirut airport to transfer
weapons from Iran, claims Hezbollah and Lebanese officials have repeatedly
denied. The Iran-backed group has a large popular base in Lebanon, though a year
of hostilities with Israel and the ousting of the group's ally Bashar al-Assad
in neighboring Syria have left it weakened. Lebanon's Directorate General of
Civil Aviation said Thursday it had "temporarily rescheduled" some flights,
including from Iran, until February 18 as it was implementing "additional
security measures." The date coincides with the deadline for the withdrawal of
Israeli forces from south Lebanon and for Hezbollah to vacate positions there,
under a ceasefire deal that began on November 27.
Lebanon's
President to US Senator: Israel must withdraw within agreed deadline of Feb. 18
LBCI/February 15/2025
After meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, U.S. Senator Richard
Blumenthal confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio played a role in
resuming U.S. military aid to the Lebanese Army, which had been frozen for
months. Blumenthal reaffirmed continued American support for Lebanon,
emphasizing the importance of stability in the country. During the meeting,
President Aoun stressed the need for pressure on Israel to withdraw from
Lebanese territory within the agreed deadline of February 18.
Hezbollah and Amal distance themselves from protesters'
attack on UNIFIL
Associated Press/February 15/ 2025
Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement appeared to be scrambling to distance
themselves from Friday's attack on UNIFIL vehicles near Beirut's airport.
Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV said in a statement posted on its social media
accounts that “unruly elements caused chaos with suspicious objectives on the
Beirut airport road.”The Amal Movement, the political party of Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri, said in a statement that "an attack on UNIFIL is an attack
on southern Lebanon and the blocking of roads anywhere is a stab against civil
peace," calling for the army and security forces to pursue the perpetrators and
strike with an "iron fist."
Tear gas and
stone-throwing: Chaos erupts at Hezbollah demonstration in Beirut
LBCI/February 15/2025
Despite Hezbollah's call for a peaceful protest on Beirut's Airport road
Saturday afternoon, tensions quickly escalated into chaos. The demonstration,
which began calmly, descended into disorder just minutes before the conclusion
of a speech by Hezbollah's Deputy Head of the Political Council, Mahmoud Qomati.
A tear gas canister, reportedly fired by the Lebanese Army, landed near the
protesters, triggering panic, confusion, and cases of fainting among the crowd.
Conflicting accounts emerged regarding the incident. According to LBCI sources,
the army responded with tear gas after some protesters threw stones and attacked
military vehicles. However, the deployment of the canister appeared to have been
misdirected. On the other hand, eyewitnesses claimed that the army
initiated the use of tear gas, prompting demonstrators to retaliate with
stone-throwing, leading to injuries among soldiers. During the protest, Qomati
delivered a fiery speech criticizing the Lebanese state. The unrest was
short-lived, as demonstrators began leaving the scene after Hezbollah announced
the end of the protest and reopened the airport road.
Army fires tear
gas to disperse official Hezbollah sit-in on airport road
Agence France Presse/February 15, 2025
The army on Saturday fired tear gas to disperse a crowd of Hezbollah supporters
that again blocked the road to the airport after the group officially called for
a "popular sit-in" to denounce Lebanon's banning of two Iranian planes from
landing in Beirut.
Video footage shows tear gas canisters falling on peaceful protesters during a
speech by Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qamati, but army sources told TV networks
that the tear gas was fired after other protesters "blocked the airport road and
attacked army vehicles."A military official said there had been an agreement
with the protest organizers that the road would not be blocked. Hezbollah MP
Hassan Fadlallah decried what he called "an unjustified and sudden attack by
Lebanese Army troops on women and children who were protesting peacefully on the
airport road." "This is a suspicious attack that aims to pit the army in the
face of its people, that's why we call on the Army Command to hold accountable
those who committed this deplorable attack, out of keenness on the army and its
role in protecting civil peace, and so that it does not turn into a tool of
repression that would fall in the face of our people's will and so that it does
not lose national consensus over it," Fadlallah added.
Hezbollah
supporters resume protests over Iran flight ban, Israeli-U.S. 'demands'
Dalal Saoud/BEIRUT, Lebanon, Feb. 15 (UPI)/February 15, 2025
Hezbollah supporters demonstrated for the third consecutive day and tried to
block the main road leading to the airport in Beirut to denounce the authorities
for bowing to Israeli "threats" by prohibiting an Iranian plane from landing.
Few days ago, Lebanon denied landing rights for an Iranian Mahan Air flight to
Hariri International Airportafter it reportedly received an Israeli warning that
it was allegedly carrying millions in cash for Hezbollah. The move came after
the Israeli Army claimed that Iran has been smuggling cash to Hezbollah in
recent weeks to rebuild itself, using civilian flights via Beirut's
international airport. Israeli Army spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee said in a
post on X on Thursday that the information was passed on to a US-led committee
supervising the Nov. 27 ceasefire that ended the war between Israel and
Hezbollah.
According to Adraee, some of the money transfers were likely carried out
successfully. By banning the Iran plane, some 350 Lebanese passengers remained
stranded in Tehran, prompting Hezbollah followers to take to the streets on
Thursday and block the entrance of Rafic Hariri International Airport. The
protests resumed Friday when the protestors attacked a passing convoy of the U.N
Interim Force in Lebanon, carrying peacekeepers heading to the airport. A UNIFIL
vehicle was set ablaze, injuring several peacekeepers including the force's
outgoing deputy commander who was rushed to hospital for treatment. The attack
on the UNIFIL convoy was strongly condemned by the Lebanese President Joseph
Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who called on the security services to
adopt strict measures and punish the culprits. U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric
said such attacks against the peacekeepers were "absolutely unacceptable," were
in breach of international law and "may constitute war crimes." Dujarric added
that the perpetrators must be held accountable, emphasizing that the safety and
security of UN personnel and property must be respected at all times. Lebanese
Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar described the attack on the UNIFIL forces as "a
crime," saying that 26people have so far been arrested and being interrogated.
Units from the Lebanese Army's Strike Force carried out extensive raids in
Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, to arrest those suspected of
involvement in the attacks. Minister of Public Works and Transport Fayez Rasamni
explained that the measures adopted concerning the Iran plane were meant to
prevent "any aggression" on the airport. Hezbollah supporters returned to the
streets Saturday in response to a call by the Iran-backed militant group for a
peaceful sit-in to condemn Israel and the U.S. for imposing "conditions" on the
Lebanese authorities. The protestors, waving Lebanese and Hezbollah flags,
chanted "Death to Israel" and "America is the big Satan" while gunshots were
fired in the air. Lebanese Army forces, which cleared the way for another UNIFIL
convoy heading to the airport, fired tear gas to disperse the angry crowd. The
once-powerful Hezbollah was greatly weakened after suffering devastating blows
during 14 months of a destructive war with Israel that killed its top leaders
and dismantled its military infrastructure.
LBCI sources:
Investigation identifies one suspect in UNIFIL assault, flammable substance
thrown at patrol
LBCI/February 15/2025
According to LBCI sources, investigations conducted by the Lebanese Army
Intelligence, under the supervision of Judge Fadi Akiki, the government
commissioner to the Military Court, have led to the identification of one of the
individuals involved in the assault on a UNIFIL patrol. The suspect was
identified among those detained. The investigation is ongoing, with efforts
focused on further uncovering the details of the attack and determining the
identities of all involved parties. UNIFIL's deputy commander, who was injured
in the attack at the airport road, disclosed to the commissioner that the
vehicle caught fire after the protesters threw a flammable substance.
Lebanon Says 25
Arrested after Attack on UN Peacekeepers
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
Lebanese authorities said Saturday that more than 25 people had been arrested
following an attack on a United Nations convoy the day before that wounded two
peacekeepers, including the force's outgoing deputy commander. UN and Lebanese
officials have condemned Friday's attack, which came as Hezbollah supporters for
a second night blocked the road to the country's only international airport over
a decision barring two Iranian planes from landing there. "More than 25 people
have been arrested by Lebanese army intelligence", with another person detained
by the security services, Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar told reporters after
an emergency security meeting Saturday, AFP reported. "This does not mean these
detainees carried out the attack... but the investigations will show who is
responsible," he said. The army and security agencies would bolster measures to
"maintain security and stability", Hajjar added, and violations would be treated
"with all seriousness". The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has demanded an
investigation after one of its vehicles was set on fire during the incident,
which wounded outgoing deputy force commander Chok Bahadur Dhakal, a Nepalese
national who was heading home after ending his mission. UNIFIL deputy
spokesperson Kandice Ardiel told AFP a second Nepalese peacekeeper was also
wounded and hospitalized. In a meeting with Hajjar on Saturday, Prime Minister
Nawaf Salam emphasized the importance of maintaining security across the
country, a statement from his office said. The premier was set to meet other
"relevant ministers" later in the day. The presidency's statement said the
Lebanese president had stressed that the incident "cannot be allowed to be
repeated", adding that the judiciary "has begun investigations on the ground".
The army said Friday that several areas around the airport had seen
"demonstrations marked by acts of vandalism and clashes, including assaults on
members of the armed forces and attacks against vehicles". Videos circulating on
social media showed demonstrators, some hooded and carrying Hezbollah flags,
attacking a man in military garb and another in civilian clothes near the
torched UNIFIL vehicle. It remains unclear who was responsible for the attack.
There was no immediate official comment from Hezbollah, but its television
channel Al-Manar late Friday blamed unidentified "masked men". It said the
protesters expressed "their rejection of the attack on the UNIFIL convoy",
adding their goal was "to secure the return of citizens stuck in Iran". The
group's ally the Amal movement, led by powerful parliament speaker Nabih Berri,
said "the attack on UNIFIL is an attack on south Lebanon" and that "blocking
roads anywhere is an assault on civil peace". Several countries have condemned
the incident, as did UN chief Antonio Guterres. "Such attacks are absolutely
unacceptable... The safety and security of UN personnel and property must be
respected at all times," his spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said in a statement.
"Attacks against peacekeepers are in breach of international law... and may
constitute war crimes," the statement said, adding that "UNIFIL must be allowed
unrestricted freedom of movement throughout Lebanon".
Israeli Drone
Strike in Jarjouh: 2 Killed and 4 Wounded
This is Beirut/February 15/2025
At around 7:00 PM, an Israeli drone raided a car with a guided missile on the
Jarjouh-Loueizeh road in the Iqlim al-Tuffah area at the Qatar al-Nada junction.
The targeted car burst into flames. Israeli Channel 12 reported that the Israeli
Army had targeted a member of Hezbollah's Unit 127, responsible for the drone
strike on Israel last week. It then announced the assassination of Abbas Ahmad
Hammoud, one of the leaders of Hezbollah's air unit. According to a provisional
assessment, two people were killed and four wounded, the latter being sisters
Yara, Sara and Lara Abu Karnib and Matta Moussa from Arabsalim. The Israeli
army's Arabic-speaking spokesman, Avichae Adraee, announced that an air force
plane had carried out a precision-guided air strike on a member of Hezbollah's
air unit in southern Lebanon. He noted that the element was targeted following
repeated violations of agreements between Israel and Lebanon in recent weeks,
which also included its involvement in launching drones into Israeli territory.
Meanwhile, Israeli drones flew over Jabal al-Rayhan in the Jezzine region. The
Israeli Army carried out two large-scale bombing operations targeting a number
of houses in the town of Yaroun, coinciding with another bombing operation in
the Labbouneh area opposite Alma al-Shaab and Naqoura in the Tyre district. It
also carried out a violent explosion in the town of Kafr Kila, the sound of
which was heard throughout the south. Israeli warplanes flew at low altitude
over the towns of Doueir, Marj Harouf, Toul and Sharqiya.
Israel says
targeted key member of Hezbollah air unit in drone strike
Agence France Presse/February 15/2025
Lebanese official media said an Israeli drone struck a vehicle in the south on
Saturday, hours after an earlier raid and days before a deadline to complete the
withdrawal of its troops. "An Israeli drone... carried out a strike" on a
vehicle in the Iqlim al-Tuffah area, the National News Agency reported, adding
that the vehicle caught fire. The Health Ministry said
the strike killed two people and wounded five others, including two children.
The Israeli army meanwhile said the strike targeted a key member of Hezbollah's
aerial unit. He was targeted "following his repeated violations of the
understandings of the (ceasefire) agreement between Israel and Lebanon during
the past weeks, which also included his involvement in launching drones towards
Israeli territory," the Israeli army said. Earlier in the day, an Israeli drone
bombed the outskirts of the southern town of Ainata, the state-run National News
Agency (NNA) said, adding that "nobody was hurt" and that "drones and
surveillance aircraft are still flying over the area at low altitude."The
ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on November 27 after
more than a year of hostilities including two months of all-out war.
Under the deal, Lebanon's military was to deploy in the south alongside
United Nations peacekeepers as the Israeli army withdrew over a 60-day period,
and Hezbollah was also to vacate its positions near the border during that
timeframe. The deadline was later extended until February 18. Both sides have
accused the other of violations, and the Israeli military has continued to carry
out strikes in Lebanon. A senior Israeli security official said Thursday that
the military was prepared to withdraw from Lebanese territory and hand over
areas to the Lebanese Army "within the timeline" set by the U.S.-French-mediated
ceasefire agreement. His comments came as the Israeli military said late
Thursday that its air forces struck Hezbollah military sites "containing weapons
and launchers." Also Thursday, Speaker Nabih Berri said the United States had
informed him that, while Israel would withdraw on February 18, "it will remain
in five locations", adding that Beirut rejected the demand.
Investigation
and interference: Protest over Iranian flights ban turns violent as UNIFIL hit
LBCI/February 15/2025
Blocking Beirut’s airport road was not a spontaneous protest against the ban on
Iranian flights landing in Lebanon. The attack on the UNIFIL convoy during the
unrest may constitute a war crime, according to a statement issued by the
peacekeeping force. The assault targeted three UNIFIL vehicles carrying
nine personnel, including a Nepali general serving as the deputy commander of
the force. The general was leaving Lebanon after completing his mission,
accompanied by two escort vehicles. As the convoy traveled along the new
airport road, it encountered a group blocking the road with burning tires at the
junction with the old airport road. Suddenly, a UNIFIL vehicle caught fire,
though the cause of the blaze remains unclear. According to initial reports, the
general was physically assaulted inside one of the vehicles as another UNIFIL
soldier fled in fear. Two of the nine peacekeepers were injured and transported
to a military hospital, while the others were taken to the airport for their
protection, according to Lebanese security sources. Lebanese Army commandos
swiftly intervened to reopen the road. However, the army had already bolstered
its presence around the airport due to the roadblocks set up on Thursday night
near the Middle East Airlines (MEA) building. Yet, the rapid spread of tire
fires at multiple locations on Friday night complicated efforts to quickly
regain control, necessitating further reinforcements. The attack on the
peacekeeping force prompted the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon to call for
an urgent, thorough, and transparent investigation to ensure accountability.
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s President vowed that those responsible would be held
accountable, with the judiciary already launching an investigation. While no
political group has claimed responsibility for the attack, security sources
confirmed that over 25 individuals present at the scene were arrested to
determine the perpetrators and whether infiltrators were among them. Among those
involved in the nighttime protests were relatives of Lebanese stranded in Iran,
as well as Lebanese and Palestinian residents from areas near the airport road.
This group was not the same as those who blocked other roads, such as Salim
Salam and the Ring Bridge. The latter groups were smaller, made up of residents
from nearby neighborhoods, and appeared to have acted in solidarity without
prior planning before dispersing upon the arrival of the army.
Lebanon
Official Media Report Israeli Drone Strike in South on Saturday
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
Lebanese official media said an Israeli drone struck the country's south on
Saturday, without reporting casualties, days before a deadline in a fragile
ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, AFP reported. "An Israeli enemy drone
carried out a strike" targeting the outskirts of the town of Ainata, the
state-run National News Agency (NNA) said, adding that "nobody was hurt" and
that "drones and surveillance aircraft are still flying over the area at low
altitude".The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect on
November 27 after more than a year of hostilities including two months of
all-out war. Under the deal, Lebanon's military was to deploy in the south
alongside United Nations peacekeepers as the Israeli army withdrew over a 60-day
period, and Hezbollah was also to vacate its positions near the border during
that timeframe.
The deadline was later extended until February 18. Both sides have accused the
other of violations, and the Israeli military has continued to carry out strikes
in Lebanon. A senior Israeli security official said Thursday that the military
was prepared to withdraw from Lebanese territory and hand over areas to the
Lebanese army "within the timeline" set by the US-French-mediated ceasefire
agreement. His comments came as the Israeli military said late Thursday that its
air forces struck Hezbollah military sites "containing weapons and launchers".
Also Thursday, Lebanon's parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri said the United
States had informed him that, while Israel would withdraw on February 18, "it
will remain in five locations", adding that Beirut rejected the demand.
Iran says ready
for 'constructive talks' with Lebanon on resuming flights
Agence France Presse/February 15/2025
Iran said Saturday that it was ready for "constructive talks" with Lebanon on
restoring Tehran-Beirut flights after a decision to bar two flights from landing
triggered violent protests in Beirut. In a telephone call, the two countries'
foreign ministers discussed "how to resolve the problem of civil flights" and
"confirmed their readiness to hold constructive talks in good faith," an Iranian
foreign ministry statement said.
Messing with
security is forbidden and the state will strike with an iron fist
Nidaa Al Watan/February 16, 2025 (Google Translation)
Many things have changed in the domestic political scene since the election of
Joseph Aoun as president and the formation of the new government headed by Nawaf
Salam, especially in the way of dealing with Hezbollah's mobile provocations.
Arab and international support has given strong momentum to the new era, which
has so far proven its determination to impose the law in the face of anyone who
tries to destabilize the country's security and stability.
The best evidence of this is the decisive decision taken by the state,
represented by the political authority, the army and the security forces, to
confront the riots sparked by Hezbollah supporters for three consecutive days on
the road to Rafik Hariri International Airport, in protest against preventing an
Iranian plane carrying Lebanese from landing in Beirut.
In this context, senior sources confirmed to "Nidaa Al Watan" that the problem
with Iran is being addressed through diplomatic and legal means, but there is a
clear decision taken by the political authority that tampering with the security
of the airport, the capital and the suburbs is prohibited, and that the state
will strike with an iron fist those who disturb security, and this is evident
through the ongoing arrests and raids and the movement of the army and the
judiciary to address the consequences of these movements.
President Aoun had confirmed that the practices witnessed on the airport road
are rejected and condemned, stressing that the security forces will not be
lenient with any party that persists in harming stability and civil peace in the
country.
For his part, Salam chaired a consultative ministerial and security meeting, at
the conclusion of which Minister of Justice Adel Nassar said that the law will
be applied and any attack on public property or freedom of movement will require
the prosecution of those involved.
As for the Minister of Public Works Fayez Rasamni, he indicated that the safety
of the airport and passengers is a red line, promising to take appropriate
decisions to neutralize it from any attack. After the meeting at the Grand
Serail, Salam headed to Baabda Palace, where he informed President Aoun of the
completion of the government's ministerial statement, and that a meeting will be
held on Monday afternoon to approve it.
He also confirmed, on the other hand, the mobilization of all diplomatic and
political support to complete the Israeli withdrawal before February 18.
Regarding the airport protests, Salam said that he discussed with the President
of the Republic the need to strictly implement the law and prosecute all those
who harmed security in the past two days, considering that the attack on "UNIFIL"
is a crime against Lebanon. In addition, the Minister of Interior and
Municipalities, Brigadier General Ahmad Hajjar, chaired a meeting of the Central
Internal Security Council, and confirmed at the end of it the work to pursue and
arrest all those involved in the events on the airport road, especially the
attack on UNIFIL. On the ground, and days before the date of February 18, the
Israeli army intensified its operations in southern Lebanon, and completed the
bombing of homes in more than one area, before launching a raid on a car in the
Jarjouh area in the Iqlim al-Tuffah region on Saturday evening, in which Ahmad
Farhat and Abbas Hammoud were killed. Israeli media reported that Hammoud, who
was targeted in the raid, is the commander of the air force in Hezbollah, noting
that he was responsible for launching a drone into Israel last week.
Marwan Hamadeh: Hafez al-Assad Told Us, ‘Forget Bachir Gemayel,' and he Was
Assassinated 4 Days Later
Beirut: Ghassan Charbel/February 15/2025
For half a century, Lebanon lived under the long rule of the two Assads in
Syria. Damascus held Lebanon’s fate in its hands, shaping its political
landscape by producing and eliminating presidents and leaders alike. Former
Lebanese MP and minister Marwan Hamadeh shares his experience with both regimes.
On December 22, a Lebanese Druze delegation, led by Walid Jumblatt, visited “the
new Syria.” Marwan Hamadeh was part of that delegation, and the scene struck
him. President Ahmad Sharaa now sat in the chair once occupied by Hafez
al-Assad, then his son Bashar, in the People’s Palace, which had been built with
the help of Rafik Hariri’s company. The trip reminded Hamadeh of the fate of men
who had defied one or both Assads, including Kamal Jumblatt, Bachir Gemayel,
René Moawad, Rafik Hariri, and many others. The memories were even more intense
because Hamadeh himself had narrowly survived an assassination attempt on
October 1, 2004—an attack that left him wounded, killed his bodyguard, and
injured his driver. At the time, the attempt was widely seen as a message to
both Walid Jumblatt and Rafik Hariri.
Asharq Al-Awsat visited Hamadeh at his office at An-Nahar newspaper, where he
has been based since the mid-1980s, to discuss Lebanon’s turbulent relationship
with the Assad regimes. He recalled Hafez al-Assad’s chilling words in his
presence: “Forget Bachir Gemayel.” Just four days later, the newly elected
Lebanese president was assassinated. The perpetrator, Habib Shartouni, was a
member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, which had close ties to the
Syrian regime. Hamadeh holds Syria responsible not only for Gemayel’s
assassination but also for the killing of President René Moawad, the
disappearance of Imam Musa al-Sadr, and the assassination of Rafik Hariri. When
asked if he had expected Bashar al-Assad’s downfall or flight from Syria,
Hamadeh replied: “I thought there might be a coup—a rebellion from within the
Syrian army, perhaps by the Fourth Division breaking away from the command of
its leader, Bashar’s brother Maher al-Assad. I believed this could happen out of
concern for Syria’s sovereignty, which had fallen under Iranian influence.
However, I did not anticipate the complete collapse we are seeing now, which has
been evident in Syria’s failure to respond to Israeli attacks for more than a
year. There hasn’t even been a statement about Gaza or anything before that.
Daily airstrikes on Syria, and no reaction.”He emphasized that the problem did
not start with Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian regime has always sought to control
two key decisions—if not two entire territories: Lebanon’s independent
decision-making and Palestine’s independent decision-making. This, he argues, is
why Syria has persistently opposed the establishment of a strong, unified
Lebanese state. The dream of making Lebanon a Syrian province or western
governorate predates the Assads and was not just a Ba’ath Party ambition.
Hamadeh explained: “There has always been something within Syrian political
thinking that resents the separation of these districts from Syria in 1920 by
France to establish Greater Lebanon. This sentiment is not just found among the
Alawites. In fact, the Alawites might have accepted division, with one part for
the Druze and another for different groups. But deep within Syrian national
identity, this remains an unresolved issue. Even among those who see Damascus as
the beating heart of Arabism and Syria as the embodiment of Arab identity on the
frontiers of the Arab empire, there is this feeling. I sensed it especially
during discussions about the Taif Agreement, and even before that, during the
so-called ‘Tripartite Agreement,’ which I helped negotiate.”
Hamadeh recounts that the agreement was brokered between him and some of his
fiercest adversaries at the time: Elie Hobeika, who represented the Lebanese
Forces; Michel Samaha, later notorious for his involvement in smuggling
explosives from Syrian intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk; and Assaad Shaftari, the
intelligence chief of the Lebanese Forces under Hobeika. Also involved was
Mohammad Abdul Hamid Beydoun, a key figure in Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement, who
had previously been a leftist before shifting alliances. This shift was part of
a broader migration from the Lebanese left, which had traditionally aligned with
Fatah and the Palestinian resistance, towards Amal and later Hezbollah. The
Tripartite Agreement emerged after the failure of the Geneva and Lausanne
conferences, which had attempted national dialogue. Those conferences only
succeeded in overturning the May 17, 1983, Lebanese-Israeli agreement, which
Hafez al-Assad had called an “agreement of submission.” This reversal led to a
coordinated offensive against the Lebanese government, President Amin Gemayel,
and the multinational peacekeeping forces, with support from the Soviet Union
under Yuri Andropov. Hamadeh explained: “The core issue was the refusal of the
Lebanese establishment—particularly the Maronites—to relinquish the powers of
the presidency and distribute them between the legislative and executive
branches, meaning the cabinet. This focus continued until we reached the
Tripartite Agreement, which was the first joint initiative between Rafik
Hariri—who was not yet prime minister and was acting as a Saudi mediator—and
Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam.”
He noted that the agreement sought to broker a deal between militias rather than
parliamentarians. It effectively proposed a confederation with ministers of
state from six sects, rotating leadership similar to the Swiss model. In
reality, this meant a permanent Syrian presence, as the fragile sectarian
balance required a strong external force to keep it from unraveling.
Elie Hobeika had by then chosen the Syrian camp. At the time, there were rumors
that he had maintained intelligence ties with both Israel and Syria, which might
explain why his role in Bachir Gemayel’s assassination was overlooked before he
fully aligned with Syrian intelligence. Eventually, intelligence maneuvers
brought Hobeika over to the pro-Syrian National Forces alliance, which included
Amal Movement and other factions. However, this broad coalition later collapsed
under its own contradictions. As the internal conflicts intensified, Hezbollah
gradually overtook Amal and effectively eliminated the National Resistance
Front, replacing it with what became known as the Islamic Resistance.
The Lebanese Resistance Against Both Assads
Asked about those who resisted Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, Hamadeh said: “The
Lebanese people resisted both Assads at different times and to varying degrees,
depending on the sectarian composition of different regions. However, in the
end, no area was spared from the oppression of either Assad. No sect avoided
their brutality, not even the Shiite at certain points. The case of Imam Musa
al-Sadr is worth revisiting, along with Syria’s role amid the rise of the
Islamic Revolution in Iran.”
He added: “I have both a strong feeling and information suggesting that the
Syrian regime was involved in sidelining and making him disappear. Perhaps they
feared an independent Shiite leadership that was more Lebanese, more aligned
with the Arab world, and rebellious against the Palestinians—particularly the
rejectionist front close to Syria. What I want to emphasize is that no one was
spared from the wrath of either Assad. Take Kamel Jumblatt, whom we consider a
mentor. He captivated us with his socialist ideas, his belief in Lebanese
national independence, and his support for an independent Palestinian decision.
He was ultimately punished for his positions—especially after telling Hafez
al-Assad in their famous final meeting: ‘I will not lead Lebanon into your big
Arab prison.’”
When Hafez al-Assad Said: “Forget Bashir Gemayel”
Hamadeh continued: “The hostility between us was well known, but let me take you
back to the period after the siege of Beirut and the departure of Yasser Arafat
and his comrades to Tunisia. Israel had Beirut under siege, and we were trapped
inside. The city had little access to water, food, and electricity—until Saudi
Arabia, through US President Ronald Reagan, secured minimal aid. That was when
Rafik Hariri played his first role as a mediator.
“We warned the Americans that if Israel entered Beirut, we would be wiped out.
The Israelis saw us as allies of ‘terrorists’ and supporters of the Palestinian
resistance. In response, the Americans, through their envoy Philip Habib,
arranged for us to leave Beirut safely via Sofar and then to Damascus, using
vehicles from the US embassy and the Lebanese Sixth Bureau.
On September 10, 1982, we met with President Hafez al-Assad at 9 am Walid
Jumblatt and I were there, along with Mohsen Dalloul, Abdullah al-Amin, and
Hikmat al-Eid. At the time, I was still serving as a minister in Elias Sarkis’s
government. During our discussion, Assad spoke about his ties to Soviet leader
Yuri Andropov and his plans for a counteroffensive against the US and the
multinational forces. He assured us that he would provide weapons to help defend
the Chouf region.”
“At one point, Walid Jumblatt remarked that Lebanon had a political system and
that a new president, Bashir Gemayel, had been elected. He suggested that we
should deal with this new reality, as had always been the case in previous
transitions.
Hafez al-Assad responded sharply: ‘Who are you talking about? Bashir Gemayel?’
We said: ‘Yes, of course, he was elected.’ Assad waved his hand dismissively and
said, ‘Forget Bashir Gemayel. Forget him.’”
Hamadeh said that the conversation took place on September 10, 1982. Bashir had
been elected just days earlier and was still celebrating his victory. Four days
later, Gemayel was assassinated.
“We were still in Damascus at the time, while Walid Jumblatt had traveled to
Amman to visit his family. That’s how we learned of Bashir’s assassination,” he
stated.
The Wave of Assassinations
Hamadeh added that a wave of assassinations followed. Grand Mufti Sheikh Hassan
Khaled was targeted, along with several Palestinian leaders. While Israel was
responsible for many of these killings—pursuing Palestinian figures even as far
as Tunisia—the Syrian regime also played its part, particularly in Tripoli and
elsewhere. Lebanese political figures were also targeted. Mohammad Shuqair, an
advisor to President Amine Gemayel, was assassinated, as were Sheikh Sobhi al-Saleh
and MP Nazem al-Qadri, who was gunned down while at a barber shop. Later,
President René Moawad was killed. Asked if he directly accused the Syrian regime
of killing René Moawad, Hamadeh replied: “I do not absolve them at all,” he
replied. “Others may have been involved alongside the Syrian
regime—assassinations like these are often joint operations. This was also the
case with the assassination of Rafik Hariri.”
The Trap Set for Samir Geagea
Regarding the church bombing, Hamadeh explained that Geagea had nothing to do
with it. At the time, Hamadeh was Minister of Health and had accompanied Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri to the site. “We were among the first to arrive, and it
was clear that everything had been premeditated—not just the bombing itself, but
also an attempt to block the Nahr al-Kalb Bridge and tunnel to frame the attack
as part of a larger terrorist operation, possibly to create a pretext for
partitioning Lebanon,” he recounted.
Shortly after, an assassination attempt targeted Deputy Prime Minister Michel El
Murr, and Geagea was falsely accused. Many, including President Elias Hrawi,
warned him that he should leave Lebanon for his safety, but he refused,
according to Hamadeh.
The bombing was orchestrated by Syrian and Lebanese intelligence, and Rafik
Hariri knew this well. That’s why some people advised Geagea to leave the
country—they were planning something against him. He refused, and as a result,
he spent 11 years in prison.
Claude A Hillar
Hajjar/Open Letter To The Honorable President Donald J. Trump & To the Members
of the Administration
February 15/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140236/
Dear Members,
We write to you with deep concern regarding the implementation of the
Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement and the United Nations Security Council
resolutions it encompasses. As you know, both France and the United States are
responsible for overseeing the implementation of this ceasefire agreement.
Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, the US Army commander overseeing the ceasefire,
recently stated his confidence that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will control
all population centers in the Southern Litani Area before next Tuesday. While
this is a welcome step, it is crucial to address the broader requirements of the
ceasefire agreement, which extend beyond the LAF’s deployment.
The ceasefire agreement mandates the implementation of UN Security Council
Resolution 1701. Notably, Article 8 of Resolution 1701 explicitly calls for the
implementation of Resolution 1559, which demands the immediate disarming of all
Lebanese and non-Lebanese armed organizations. Therefore, we ask: what progress
has been made on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the Palestinian terrorist
organizations in Lebanon?
In his investiture speech, General Joseph Aoun declared that he would supervise
the disarmament process through the Supreme Defence Council, one of the few
significant powers remaining under the President’s authority since the Taif
Agreement. Has the Supreme Defence Council convened since General Joseph Aoun's
election? What is the status of efforts to disarm Hezbollah and the Palestinian
terrorist groups?
We are deeply concerned that we may see a repetition of the events of 1983-84
when Syria declared that it would withdraw only after Israel withdrew,
effectively stalling the peace process. Today, Hezbollah and the Palestinian
terrorist organizations are employing a similar tactic, insisting they will
disarm only after Israel withdraws. As the saying goes: “Fool us once, shame on
you; fool us twice, shame on us.”
It is essential that the United States push for the full implementation of the
ceasefire agreement by Lebanon, Hezbollah and the Palestinian terrorist
organizations. This agreement is not limited to the deployment of the LAF south
of the Litani River; it also requires the comprehensive enforcement of both UN
Resolutions 1701 and 1559, as the latter is an integral part of the former
(Article 8 of Resolution 1701).
By stating that the LAF will control all population centers in the Southern
Litani Area before next Tuesday, Maj. Gen. Jeffers inadvertently reinforces
Hezbollah's strategy of securing Israel’s withdrawal first to evade disarmament
obligations. This outcome would undermine the very essence of the ceasefire
agreement.
We strongly urge your administration to prioritize the full and effective
implementation of the ceasefire, ensuring that all parties uphold their
commitments in accordance with international law. Together, we can work towards
a more stable and peaceful region.
With Respect and Gratitude,
The Guardians of the Cedars – Media Department -
The Regalian
Function and the Poor Exercise of Power
Charles Elias Chartouni/This is Beirut/February 15/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140239/
The new government of Lebanon was welcomed as symptomatic of a new era.
Nonetheless, its shortcomings are obvious, and its inaugural performance is not
of good omen. The political subtext is plainly contradictory, and its steering
committee doesn’t seem to realize that its multiple inconsistencies are
self-defeating. Surfing on the false idea of technocratic neutrality and
non-partisanship, its ideological discrepancies and regalian exercise of power
betray its blatant partisanship and the inability of the cabinet to operate as
an integrated body with clearly stated policy objectives. Otherwise, the glaring
differences between the experts and the politicians seem to distort the
democratic decision process and the concentration of power within a coterie of
power holders with an obvious political agenda.
The latest political troubles are quite ominous and revelatory of the
multitudinous ideological and political incompatibilities and imbalances. The
cabinet formation scheme has utterly failed to create an integrated platform
whereby technicality and political expediency are complementary. To boot, the
implicit political assumption is explicitly dismissive of the strategic and
political facts generated by the Israeli counteroffensive and its manifold
consequences. The ideological blinders do not acknowledge these facts, and
policy-making mutates into political exorcism and denial of reality. The
lackluster implementation of the truce stipulation and the childish blame
externalization dictate the political agenda and account largely for the
inability to draft a coherent statement and deal with the vagaries of Shiite
fascism.
This cabinet should realize that it cannot navigate its course amidst political
inconsistencies and ideological blinders and be swayed by the sabotaging
politics of Hezbollah and the instrumentation of Iranian power politics. The
political silence of the current coalition displays its structural weaknesses
and political inadequacies. Leaving the unleashing insecurity in the hands of
poorly framed security measures and the flimsy structured military interventions
is a hazardous course that may expose the troops to the inconsistencies of the
executive power. Finally, the implementation of the international resolutions
cannot be confined to mere operational issues and dismiss the larger political
picture.
Lebanon is not anymore able to steer its political course through tactical
tinkering, mendacity, and political meandering. It has to make an explicit
political statement on the urgency of a negotiated peace treaty with the State
of Israel lest it engage the final stage of a self-generated process of
political destruction initiated sixty years ago. Lebanon has no more chance to
survive unless it addresses the issue of peace with Israel as an axial point in
policy formation. I wonder whether the Salam cabinet is willing to modify its
ideological script, amend its policy plan, and distance itself from Palestinian
militancy and Iranian power politics that have jointly challenged the negotiated
peace process scenarios, albeit their strategic differences.
The hackneyed topics of ontological enmity with Israel were recycled by the
incoming executive power, which was a repeated exercise in political futility,
political irresponsibility, and inability to imagine an alternative course to
the destructive cycles of violence that have plagued this country over the last
decades, let alone their lack of audacity and ideological subservience to the
dull and murderous ideology of absolutized enmity and essentialized hatred.
Lebanon is the last hostage of Iranian power politics and has no opportunity to
escape the damnation of the Shiite totalitarian panopticon unless Iran is
defeated, its tattered Islamic narrative discredited, and remaining proxies
annihilated.
The ideological delirium exhibited by the Hezbollah cohorts is the outcome of a
long-standing indoctrination and a hardwired string of networks operating on a
continuum of terrorism and organized criminality that accounts for the sturdy
knots that bind this primitive horde huddled around its totemic figures and
operational nexuses. Lebanon has no other alternative but to reckon with the
salient strategic and political issues and start acting as a coherent and
sovereign national actor; otherwise, its disintegration has come full circle,
and the loopholes are hard to find. Any executive in Lebanon has to come to
terms with the new realities on the ground, outgrow the infantilization driven
by a stunted political growth, and face the reality of peacemaking elicited by
the Abrahamic accords and their revolutionary ideological and political
inflections.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 15-16/2025
Syrian stabs passersby in Austrian town, killing one, police say
Reuters/February 15, 2025
ZURICH: A 23-year-old Syrian asylum seeker stabbed several passersby in the
center of the Austrian town of Villach on Saturday, killing a 14-year old boy
and injuring four other people, police said, adding that the suspected attacker
had been arrested. Further details, such as whether the attacker knew any of the
victims, remained unclear, a spokesperson for the police in the southern state
of Carinthia, Rainer Dionisio, said. The injured were aged between 14 and 32, he
added. Such attacks are extremely rare in Austria. A jihadist killed four people
in Vienna in a shooting rampage in 2020 that was the country’s deadliest assault
in decades. Villach is known for its carnival and is in an area that is a
tourist hotspot in the summer as it includes one of Austria’s most famous lakes
but otherwise attracts little attention. “I have been in the (Carinthian police)
press service for 20 years and cannot recall such an act,” Dionisio told
national broadcaster ORF. A man whom Austrian media described as a Syrian food
delivery driver charged into the attacker with his car and prevented him from
harming more people, Dionisio said. The attack comes at a time of political
upheaval in Austria as the far-right Freedom Party, which came first in
September’s parliamentary election, said on Wednesday it had failed to form a
coalition government. The president is now considering whether an alternative to
a snap election is available. Railing against illegal immigration and pledging
to increase deportations to countries like Syria and Afghanistan, which it is
currently illegal to deport people to, are central to the Freedom Party’s
platform and appeal, and the party quickly seized on the Villach attack. “We
need a rigorous crackdown on asylum and cannot continue to import conditions
like those in Villach,” Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickl said in a statement.
Rubio arrives in Israel on
first Middle East tour
AFP/February 16, 2025
TEL AVIV: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Israel late Saturday on
the first leg of a Middle East tour, an AFP journalist reported. Rubio landed at
Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv and is due to hold talks with Israeli officials
on Sunday when he will highlight President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal
to take control of the Gaza Strip, which has been devastated by more than 15
months of war between Hamas and Israel. Coming from Munich, where he took part
in a security conference dominated by the Ukraine war, the top US diplomat is
set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on
Sunday. Netanyahu, who recently visited Washington where he met Donald Trump,
expressed his appreciation for the US president’s “full support” for Israel’s
next moves in Gaza. “Israel will now have to decide what they will do,” Trump
posted on Truth Social on Saturday. “The United States will back the decision
they make!” he added. Rubio arrived in Israel hours after Hamas freed three
Israeli hostages in Gaza in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian
prisoners in the sixth swap of a nearly month-old ceasefire. The ceasefire came
close to collapse earlier this week and Netanyahu credited “President Trump’s
firm stance” with ensuring Saturday’s releases went ahead. In his meetings, the
US top diplomat is expected to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire, which
should see the release of remaining hostages and a more permanent end to the war
but which has yet to be agreed in detail.
A source close to the negotiations said mediators hope to begin talks on the
second phase “next week in Doha.” Washington has expressed openness to
alternative proposals from Arab governments but has stressed that currently,
“the only plan is Trump’s.” Trump has proposed taking control of the Palestinian
territory and displacing its residents to Egypt or Jordan, both of which
strongly oppose the proposal. Trump has warned of repercussions for Egypt and
Jordan if they do not allow in the more than two million Palestinians in Gaza.
“Right now the only plan — they don’t like it — but the only plan is the Trump
plan. So if they’ve got a better plan, now’s the time to present it,” Rubio said
on Thursday. Rubio is due to fly on from Israel to Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates. His talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday are expected to be
particularly tough, with Riyadh expected to play a key role in Trump’s regional
plans.
Israel and Hamas complete
new exchange of captives
Agence France Presse/February 16, 2025
Gaza militants freed three Israeli hostages on Saturday in an exchange that is
also saw the release of 369 Palestinians from Israeli custody, the latest such
swap under an ongoing truce deal.An AFP journalist saw masked Hamas militants
parade the hostages onto a stage in Gaza's southern city of Khan Younis, where
they were told to address the crowd before their handover to the Red Cross and
eventually Israel. Clutching gift bags given by their
captors and a certificate to mark the end of their captivity, the three men,
flanked by fighters, called for the completion of further hostage exchanges
under the ceasefire deal. The release, the sixth since the truce took effect on
January 19, came after fears last week that the deal between Israel and Hamas
was near collapse. But on Friday both sides signaled that Saturday's swap would
go ahead. Dozens of Hamas fighters lined up around the
stage bearing the logo of the group's armed wing, the Ezzedine Al-Qassam
Brigades, as Palestinian nationalist music played.
Sources from Hamas and Islamic Jihad said the groups had deployed about 200
militants for the handover ceremony. A crowd also gathered in Tel Aviv's
"Hostages Square" to watch the exchange, with many carrying Israeli flags and
posters in support of the captives. The office of
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had named the hostages as
Israeli-American Sagui Dekel-Chen, Israeli-Russian Sasha Trupanov and Israeli-Argentinian
Yair Horn. They had been held by Gaza militants since Hamas's October 7, 2023
attack on Israel that sparked the war 16 months ago. The Palestinian Prisoners'
Club advocacy group said Israel was to release 369 inmates in exchange, with 24
of them expected to be deported. Almost all of the rest are "prisoners from the
Gaza Strip who were arrested after October 7", the group said. After the deal
had appeared to be on the brink of collapse, a Hamas official on Friday said the
group expected talks on a second phase of the ceasefire to begin early next
week. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose country is Israel's
top backer and one of the truce mediators, is due to arrive in Israel late
Saturday ahead of expected talks with Netanyahu on the Gaza truce. Last week's
release sparked anger in Israel and beyond after the freed hostages were paraded
onstage, with their emaciated state sparking concern over conditions in
captivity. Israeli-American hostage Keith Siegel, released in a previous
exchange, said he was "starved and... tortured, both physically and emotionally"
during his captivity. There were also fears for
Palestinians in Israeli custody after some prisoners required medical treatment
following their release in the last swap.
Riyadh summit
The ceasefire has been under massive strain since U.S. President Donald Trump
proposed a takeover of the Gaza Strip under which the territory's population of
more than two million people would be moved to Egypt or Jordan. For
Palestinians, any forced displacement evokes memories of the "Nakba", or
catastrophe -- the mass displacement of their ancestors during Israel's creation
in 1948. The stage set up for the release on Saturday bore an illustrated poster
appearing to depict the final moments of Hamas's leader Yahya Sinwar, who was
killed by Israeli forces in October. It showed the Al-Aqsa Mosque visible
through a hole in the wall of a destroyed building along with the slogan: "No
displacement except to Jerusalem". Arab countries have come together to reject
Trump's plan, and Saudi Arabia will host the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and
the United Arab Emirates on Thursday for a summit on the issue. After the Riyadh
summit, the Arab League will convene in Cairo on February 27 to discuss the same
issue. A joint statement from the heads of Christian churches in Jerusalem on
Saturday also spoke out against any forced displacement, saying Gazans "who have
lived for generations in the land of their ancestors, must not be forced into
exile, stripped of... their right to remain in the land that forms the essence
of their identity".Trump had warned this week that "hell" would break loose if
Hamas failed to release "all" remaining hostages by noon on Saturday. Israel
later insisted Hamas release "three living hostages" on Saturday or "the
ceasefire will end".
Second phase -
Under the terms of the 42-day first phase of the ceasefire agreement brokered by
Qatar, Egypt and the United States, negotiations for a second phase were due to
start on February 3. Netanyahu had sent negotiators to Doha days later, but the
delegation was not mandated to discuss phase two, which is meant to lay out
steps towards ending the war. Hamas official Taher al-Nounou told AFP on Friday
that "we expect the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations to begin early
next week".Another source familiar with the talks told AFP that "mediators
informed Hamas that they hope to start the second phase of negotiations next
week in Doha". The October 7, 2023 attack on Israel
resulted in the deaths of 1,211 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP
tally of Israeli official figures. Militants also took 251 hostages, of whom 73
remain in Gaza, including 35 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed at least 48,239 people in Gaza, the
majority of them civilians, according to figures from the health ministry in the
Hamas-run territory that the United Nations considers reliable.
Israel Begins Freeing over
300 Palestinian Prisoners after Receiving 3 Hostages
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
Israeli authorities confirmed they received three Israeli men held hostage in
the Gaza Strip on Saturday after Hamas handed them over to the Red Cross in
exchange for more than 300 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. The
three are Iair Horn, 46, Sagui Dekel Chen, 36, and Alexander (Sasha) Troufanov,
29. All are dual nationals. Horn was abducted along with his brother, Eitan, who
remains in captivity. Among the most prominent of the Palestinian prisoners set
to be released is Ahmed Barghouti, 48, a close aide of militant leader and
iconic Palestinian political figure Marwan Barghouti. It's the latest indication
that the fragile ceasefire deal, which teetered in recent days, will hold.
Nearly all the 73 remaining hostages are men, including Israeli soldiers, and
about half are believed to be dead, The Associated Press reported. The two sides
have carried out five swaps since the ceasefire began on Jan. 19, freeing 21
hostages and over 730 Palestinian prisoners so far during the first phase of the
truce. The war could resume if no agreement is reached on the more complicated
second phase, which calls for the return of all remaining hostages captured in
Hamas' attack on Oct. 7, 2023, and an indefinite extension of the truce.
Bus Carrying Freed Palestinian
Prisoners Arrives in Ramallah
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
A bus carrying a group of Palestinian prisoners released Saturday by Israel
under the Gaza ceasefire deal arrived to a cheering crowd in the occupied West
Bank city of Ramallah, according to an AFP journalist. Wearing traditional
keffiyeh scarves, the freed prisoners were hoisted onto the crowd's shoulders.
They hugged relatives before heading to a quick health checkup, the journalist
reported. Many in the crowd waved yellow flags of the Fatah movement which
dominates the Palestinian Authority, while one prisoner kissed a baby as soon as
he stepped off the bus. The Israeli Prison Service confirmed it had freed 369
prisoners from the Ofer and Kziot prisons near Ramallah and Gaza respectively,
after transferring them "from several prisons across the country". Among those
released in Ramallah Saturday was Amir Abu Radaha, who had spent almost 32 years
in jail. "I've returned to my family and I've returned anew, born again. Today
is a new birthday", he told AFP from their home in the Al-Amari refugee camp
near Ramallah. He had been charged with intentionally causing death and being a
member of an illegal organization, according to Israel's justice ministry
records. Abu Radaha said that during the time he'd spent in jail no period had
been as hard as the 15 months while war had raged in Gaza. His sister expressed
joy after a sleepless night. "I kept thinking about whether Amir would be
released this time or not", she told AFP. Unlike previous releases, the
prisoners wore jackets rather than openly displaying their prison garb. Earlier
Saturday, images broadcast on Israeli public television showed Palestinian
prisoners ahead of their release wearing sweatshirts featuring the prison
service logo, a Star of David, and the slogan: "We do not forget and we do not
forgive." In a statement, Hamas condemned the Arabic slogan on the prisoners'
sweatshirts, calling it "racist" and a "flagrant violation of humanitarian
laws". Earlier Saturday, during the release of three Israeli hostages in Khan
Yunis, militants forced the captives to address onlookers in Hebrew in a
choreographed release where signs carried messages in Hebrew, Arabic and
English. Elior Levy, a commentator on Israel's public broadcaster, criticized
the prison service's use of the uniforms as "stupid and infantile". "This very
idiotic act puts Israel in the same line as Hamas' grotesque gestures in
releasing the hostages," he wrote on X. The Palestinian Prisoners' Club advocacy
group had said Israel was to release 369 inmates in the latest exchange. The
inmates were freed in exchange for three Israelis held hostage in Gaza. It was
the latest such swap under a January 19 ceasefire deal that ended more than 15
months of war ignited by Hamas's unprecedented attack against Israel on October
7, 2023. Israel had warned Hamas that it must free three living hostages this
weekend or face a resumption of the war, after the group said it would pause
releases over what it described as Israeli violations of the Gaza truce.
Thousands of pro-Palestinians
march in UK against Trump’s Gaza plan
AFP/February 16, 2025
LONDON: Thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched through central
London to the United States embassy on Saturday to protest against President
Donald Trump’s proposal that the US “take over” Gaza. Waving Palestinian flags
and placards saying “Hands off Gaza,” several thousand people walked from
Whitehall in Westminster over the River Thames to the embassy in Nine Elms.
Earlier this month, Trump stunned the world when he suggested the US could
redevelop the war-ravaged Gaza Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”His
proposal envisages resettling Palestinians elsewhere, with no plan for them ever
to return. Other western leaders and the Arab world have widely condemned the
idea. Protesters held banners that read, “Stand up to Trump” and “Mr Trump,
Canada is not your 51st state. Gaza is not your 52nd.” “I think it’s completely
immoral and illegal and also impractical and absurd,” 87-year-old Holocaust
survivor Stephen Kapos told AFP. “You simply cannot deport two million people,
especially that the surrounding countries already said that they wouldn’t take
them, not out of the goodness of their heart but because it would destabilize
those countries. “So it’s not going to happen but it does a lot of damage simply
stating that as an endgame,” he added. The march, organized by the Palestine
Solidarity Campaign (PSC), was the 24th major pro-Palestinian protest in
Britain’s capital since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. A heavy police
presence was deployed as officers kept protesters away from a counter-march
called “Stop the Hate,” where participants waved Israeli flags. Hamas’s attack
resulted in the deaths of 1,211 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP
tally of Israeli official figures. Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at
least 48,264 people in Gaza, the majority of them civilians, according to
figures from the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory that the United
Nations considers reliable. On Saturday, Hamas released three Israeli hostages
in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian inmates freed by Israel, completing the
latest swap of a fragile Gaza truce deal.
Iran Confirms Receiving 'Messages' from New Syrian Government
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
Iran said Saturday that it had received messages from the new government in
Damascus following the ouster of its longtime Syrian ally, former president
Bashar al-Assad, AFP reported. "The Islamic Republic of Iran is indirectly in
contact with Damascus," Tehran's special envoy for Syrian affairs Mohammad Reza
Raouf Sheibani was quoted as saying by the state-run IRNA news agency. The
diplomat said Iran had "also received messages" from Syria, but did not specify
the intermediary country facilitating the communication. Sheibani was responding
to a question about recent comments by Syria's foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani,
regarding communications with Iran, according to IRNA. "Our view of the
developments in Syria and the restoration of relations with Damascus is
forward-looking," Sheibani said, emphasizing that Iran was "thoughtfully"
monitoring the situation there. Iran, a staunch ally of Assad's regime,
evacuated its diplomatic mission in Syria in December when opposition forces,
led by current interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, overthrew the government.
Sharaa said in December that Syria "cannot continue without relations with an
important regional country like Iran". He added that ties between Damascus and
Tehran "must be based on respect for the sovereignty of both countries and
non-interference in the affairs of both countries". Iran had provided assistance
to Assad during Syria's civil war, helping him claw back control of swathes of
the country. Sheibani, who previously served as Iran's ambassador to Syria,
reiterated Tehran's position that the "future and destiny" of Syria must be
determined by Syrians alone. "The stability and peace of Syria are of particular
importance to us, and we are against any foreign interference in the affairs of
this country," he said.
Turkey says it would reconsider
its military presence in Syria if Kurdish militants are eliminated
Sally Abou Aljoud/BEIRUT
(AP)/February 15, 2025
Turkey's foreign minister said Saturday his country would reconsider its
military presence in northeastern Syria if that country's new leaders eliminate
a Kurdish militant group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the
United States and the European Union. Hakan Fidan spoke at the Munich Security
Conference alongside Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, who did not
comment on the remarks. Fidan has expressed such sentiments before. The
Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, has waged an insurgency against Turkey for
decades, seeking greater autonomy for Kurds. “We can’t tolerate armed militia in
any form," Fidan said. He said such groups should be integrated “under one
national army” in Syria and noted that its new leaders have been responsive to
that idea. Al-Shaibani did speak in support of disarming all non-state factions
and of including Kurds in Syria's new government. The presence of Turkish-backed
forces in northeastern Syria has increased substantially since insurgent groups
ousted former President Bashar Assad late last year, and the forces have been
targeting Kurdish forces more often. Turkey also views the Syrian Democratic
Forces, a U.S.-backed military Kurdish alliance in Syria, as an extension of the
PKK. That has led to ongoing military confrontations between Turkish-backed
forces and the SDF in northern Syria. While most insurgent groups have agreed to
integrate into the new Syrian army, the SDF has refused. “Kurds are part of the
Syrian nation but they can’t have their own army, as this is against our unity,”
said another speaker on Saturday's conference panel, Hind Kabawat of the Center
for World Religions, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution.
GCC Secretary-General Meets with NATO Military Committee
Chairman
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Jasem Albudaiwi met with
Chairman of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Committee
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone. The meeting came on the sidelines of 61st Munich
Security Conference in the Federal Republic of Germany. According to SPA, the
two sides reviewed the latest regional and international developments, focusing
particularly on the situation in Gaza and the wider region. The GCC
Secretary-General stressed the need to intensify international efforts to end
the suffering of the brotherly Palestinian people and ensure the delivery of
humanitarian aid, reaffirming the GCC's commitment to regional stability and
international efforts to resolve humanitarian crises. Meanwhile, the Chairman of
the NATO Military Committee emphasized the important role of the GCC states in
maintaining regional and international security and stability, praising their
status in regional and international forums.
Zelenskiy Rebuffs US Draft
Proposal on Critical Minerals
Daryna Krasnolutska/Bloomberg/February
15, 2025
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he rejected a US draft agreement
that would give Washington access to critical minerals in the war-battered
nation because it didn’t offer investments and sufficient protections. “It
doesn’t protect our interests,” Zelenskiy told reporters at the Munich Security
Conference on Saturday. “There should be a connection with security guarantees
and investments.”The Ukrainian leader said the presented draft “was not in the
interest of a sovereign Ukraine” — as the the sides continue to negotiate. US
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented a draft agreement to Zelenskiy during
his visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, which he said would be necessary for continued
support from President Donald Trump’s administration. Ukrainian officials said
they would assess the proposal ahead of the Munich meeting. The US sought to
secure 50% of the income from license sales and other proceeds, which would
violate Ukrainian national laws, a person familiar with the matter said. Kyiv
suggested changes to the proposal that would benefit both sides, the person
said, adding that they saw the US draft for the first time on the day of
Bessent’s arrival. The two sides had aimed to forge a deal during the Munich
conference, attended by Zelenskiy, US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of
State Marco Rubio. The deal “should be positive for both nations and bring
money,” Zelenskiy said. The Trump administration has signaled it expects Kyiv to
grant access to resources, including critical minerals, as well as a pledge to
purchase US energy exports, in return for its military and economic support
against Russia. Trump has decried the billions of dollars in aid provided to
Ukraine under his predecessor Joe Biden, saying the war should end rather than
be sustained with US support and funds.
UK's Foreign Minister: US, Ukraine Should Deepen Partnership
Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
British Foreign Minister David Lammy said on Saturday he would encourage US
President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to deepen
their partnership in the future. "I would encourage Donald Trump and the
Ukrainians to look very carefully at a deepening partnership over the next
generations," Lammy said at the Munich Security Conference, Reuters reported.
Britain and Ukraine signed a landmark 100-year partnership agreement last month
to deepen security ties and strengthen their countries' relationship. Lammy said
the best security guarantee for Ukraine against future Russian aggression was
binding US industry, business and defence capability into its future. "That is
what will make Putin sit up and pay attention, and that is what's attractive to
a US president who knows how to get a good deal," Lammy added.
US-Europe differences come
to the fore at Munich conference
Dr. Amal Mudallali/Arab News/February 15, 2025
MUNICH: The Munich Security Conference brought the fault lines between Europe
and the US over Ukraine, the international order and the transatlantic
relationship to the view of world leaders and political and security experts
from the opening session of the conference on Friday. I was in the room to
listen to the anticipated speech by US Vice President J.D. Vance and I saw the
disbelief on people’s faces when he started speaking. The room was packed, with
dozens of people standing on staircases and balconies to hear Vance in person
for lack of seating availability. He did not disappoint in shocking them. When
he was received with applause, he joked: “I hope this is not the only applause I
get.” He predicted correctly, and received polite applause only a couple of
times. What shocked people most was not his lecturing them on democracy,
especially free speech, and attacking them on immigration, but the fact that the
American vice president’s speech in the foremost international security
conference did not mention Ukraine even once, and did not talk about any
security and foreign policy issue. He just put the Europeans on notice: There is
a new sheriff in town. The Europeans were there for the message, and actually
got it during their meetings with Vance before the opening of the conference.
Their concern was evident in their speeches to the crowded halls of the
conference venue. All the speeches were indirect or direct comments on the state
of America and how Europe and the world should confront the phenomena called
Donald Trump. From the opening statement of the conference’s chairman,
Ambassador Christoph Heusgen, which highlighted “the rule of law and not the law
of the strongest,” to the strong messages in the speech of German President
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, it was obvious that Europe is readying itself to push
back. What rattled Europe most was the American president’s quick moves toward
Russian President Vladimir Putin and their fears that they will be cut out of
negotiations over ending the Ukraine war. You hear it everywhere: Europe and
Ukraine should be at the table, and nothing about the war should be decided
without Ukraine’s involvement.
Some criticized the new US administration’s negotiating style, with German
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius taking issue with giving everything at the
start of talks. “If I were (negotiating), I would know that I don’t take any
essential point of negotiations off the table before the negotiations begin,” he
said.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that “authoritarians
are watching whether you have impunity if you invade your neighbor,” in a
reference to Europe’s fear that the US administration’s peace overtures to Putin
may embolden others to invade their neighbors and get away with it.
Steinmeier highlighted how important it is not only to end the war, but to
settle the conflict in a way that benefits Ukraine, Europe and the US. “That
outcome — an end to this war — is what we all hope for. How this war concludes
will have a lasting impact on our security order and on the influence of both
Europe and the US in the world,” he said, adding: “I firmly believe that simply
‘making a deal and leaving’ would weaken us all: Ukraine and Europe but also the
US. For this reason, every scenario — be it before or after the end of fighting
— requires our combined power of deterrence and strength. That is why, in every
scenario, support for Ukraine must continue — namely from Europe and the
US.”This sentiment was also echoed by Von der Leyen, who said that Ukraine
“needs peace through strength.” But despite their warnings and aversion to the
new US administration’s approach, they highlighted the importance of stepping up
defense spending, a key ask by Trump. Steinmeier said: “Expenditure on security
must continue to rise. Our Bundeswehr must become stronger. Not to wage war —
but to prevent war.” He seemed to respond to Trump’s request when he said: “The
2 percent (defense spending) target, which we formally agreed in Wales in 2014,
belongs to another era that was confronted with different threats. A decade on,
we will need to spend considerably more than what was agreed back then.”
Von der Leyen also called for stepping up military spending, and warned that
Europe had outsourced its defense. The calls for Europe to stand up for itself
were everywhere, as were the calls for unity but with the acknowledgment that
Europe does not have the deterrent capability needed to confront the Putins of
the world. But they seemed willing to resist. The words of the German president
created the outlines of the push back by calling on Europe not to be intimidated
by what is coming out of Washington. He said: “We are subjects, not objects, in
the international order. We must not allow ourselves to be paralyzed by the
flood of announcements. We must not freeze in fear, or as the English saying
goes: We cannot be like a deer in the headlights! It is clear that the new
American administration holds a worldview that is very different from our own —
one that shows no regard for established rules, for partnerships or for the
trust that has been built over time.” This was only the first day of the
conference but it set the tone for what is awaiting the transatlantic
relationship in the era of an even stronger and more “populist” US
administration. This fear is real for Europe, and especially Germany, which
faces crucial elections next week and where Vance met the far-right AfD leader
and criticized efforts by German officials to avoid working with the party. It
is a new era of what Europeans consider American election interference and
America calls defense of democracy, which rests “on the sacred principle that
the voice of the people matters.”
It is the dawn of a new uncharted transatlantic fist fight.
World Bank: Red Sea Crisis
Raises Global Shipping Costs by 141%
Washignton: Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
The Red Sea crisis has emerged as a critical flashpoint of the conflict in the
Middle East, upending global trade and maritime transport, port activity in the
MENA region, and ecological balance of the Red Sea. In a report entitled “The
Deepening Red Sea Shipping Crisis: Impacts and Outlook,” the World Bank said
that trade diversions have reshaped port trade activity along the Asia-Europe
corridor, altering the fortunes of key hubs. It said Western Mediterranean hubs
are thriving on redirected trade, while their Eastern Mediterranean counterparts
face steep declines. Meanwhile, the report said, South Asian ports, like
Colombo, have seized the opportunity, capturing more regional cargo. “The
disruption has sent shockwaves through global supply chains, resulting in longer
supplier delivery times, especially in Europe,” the World Bank said.
However, the report said higher freight rates have had muted effects on
inflation so far, partly owing to subdued global demand, lower global commodity
prices, and the adequate stock of inventories. The report said the Drewry World
Container Index, a critical gauge of global shipping costs, remains 141% higher
than pre-crisis levels as of November 2024. It said the impact is more
pronounced along routes passing through the Red Sea, where shipping rates from
Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa are, on average, 230% higher than at the end of
2023. In its detailed report, the World Bank said attacks on commercial vessels
in the Red Sea—a vital corridor for nearly a third of global container
traffic—have severely disrupted regional and global maritime operations.
Security threats in the Red Sea have compelled ships on the Asia-Europe and
Asia-North Atlantic trade lanes to be rerouted around Africa’s Cape of Good
Hope. In the wake of these disruptions, the once-thriving maritime passage,
prized for its role as the most expedient link between Asia and Europe, has
witnessed a precipitous drop in vessel traffic. By end-2024, about a year after
the onset of the crisis, vessel traffic through the strategic Suez Canal and Bab
El-Mandeb Strait—which used to carry 30% of world container traffic—had
plummeted by three-fourths, forcing ships to detour around the Cape of Good
Hope, where navigation volumes surged by over 50%. Meanwhile, the Strait of
Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil passageway and a chokepoint between the
Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has not been immune to the spillover effects,
experiencing a 15% reduction in maritime traffic due to its proximity to the
conflict zone. Also, trade diversion around the Cape of Good Hope led a sharp
increase in the travel distances and times of vessels that once frequented the
Red Sea. The report said that by October 2024, travel distances for cargo ships
and tankers that previously passed through the Red Sea had risen by 48% and 38%,
respectively, compared to the pre-conflict baseline of January to September
2023.
It said this has resulted in corresponding increases in travel times of up to
45% for cargo and 28% for tankers, signaling a significant shift in global
maritime logistics.
The Red Sea shipping crisis has also profoundly disrupted the global supply
chains.
The World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Stress Index, a measure of the delayed
container shipping capacity that was held up due to port congestion or closures,
rose to 2.3 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEUs) in December 2024—more
than double the levels recorded in December 2023. Over the past year, Eastern
Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf ports have accounted for 26% of delayed container
shipping capacity, up from 8% a year ago. Meanwhile, China’s share has dropped
to 9% from 38%. The report additionally showed that Purchasing Managers’ Indices
for suppliers’ delivery times have increased in 25 out of 35 surveyed countries
globally between November 2023 and October 2024, compared to the pre-crisis
baseline of November 2022 to October 2023. The deterioration of supplier
delivery times has been particularly pronounced in Europe and some of the Asian
countries.
The World Bank said that since November 2023, the majority of Red Sea and Gulf
ports and their associated economies have registered reduced sea trade volumes
compared to the baseline period of November 2022 to October 2023. Jordan and
Oman saw the steepest declines in shipping exports, with reductions of 38% and
28%, respectively, while Jordan and Qatar experienced the largest declines in
shipping imports, at 50 and 27%. Between November 2023 and October 2024, nearly
all of the top 20 ports across Red Sea and Gulf countries recorded notable drops
in both imports and exports, with an average trade volume decrease of 8%
compared to their pre-crisis levels. Egypt reported an estimated $7 billion loss
in Suez Canal revenues for 2024, representing approximately 5% of its GDP.
Nevertheless, a few ports in the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have bucked the
trend, showing positive growth. Their locations in the Mediterranean and the
Gulf, away from Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory, likely enabled them to
benefit from trade diversion from ports located near the conflict’s center and
maintain uninterrupted trade routes to Europe and other markets. From November
2023 to October 2024, global port visits and seaborne trade volumes dropped by
5% for imports and 4% for exports compared to the November 2022 to October 2023
baseline, partly due to the Red Sea shipping crisis. With the ceasefire between
Israel and Hamas taking effect on January 19, 2025, and the Houthis stating they
will limit attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships, the potential
for reduced disruptions to global maritime trade has increased, the report
showed. It said a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect on January 19,
2025, unfolding in three phases over several weeks. More specifically, three
scenarios are constructed to assess its potential impact on shipping trade.
First, in the baseline scenario, the crisis is assumed to last until October
2025, with year-on-year shipping trade growth from December 2024 to October 2025
mirroring those observed during the same period from December 2023 to October
2024.
Second, gradual recovery scenario assumes the crisis lasts until May 2025, after
which shipping trade growth returns to the pre-crisis levels. Third, the World
Bank said a rapid recovery scenario assumes the crisis ends quickly in February
2025.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on February 15-16/2025
Trump's First Big Disastrous Mistake...Iran's
nuclear facilities must be taken out, sanctions must be intensified, and the
Iranian people's fight for freedom must be supported.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/February 15, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/02/140213/
The problem, of course, is that after seeing what happened when Libya's General
Muammar Ghaddafi gave up nuclear weapons in 2003 and Ukraine gave up nuclear
weapons in 1994, no one with an IQ above single digits would ever agree to give
up nuclear weapons again – especially after so many decades of immense
investment and just "weeks" from the project's successful completion.
Regrettably, like Russia, Iran has a long track record of deceit, obstructing
investigations, and stalling to buy time. Iran's regime also has the potential
to wait four years until Trump's term in office is over, then pick up where it
left off.
The mullahs seek to lull the United States into a false sense of security. They
undoubtedly hope that diplomatic engagement will allow them time to race to
nuclear weapons breakout, or, at worst, another weak agreement that will enable
them to rebuild their military. Whenever Iran gains financial or political
leverage, it uses it against America and its allies. Since October 2023, Iran
and its proxies have attacked US troops in the region more than 200 times.
Iran's nuclear facilities must be taken out, sanctions must be intensified, and
the Iranian people's fight for freedom must be supported. Trump must not waste
this opportunity. Pictured: A Fattah hypersonic ballistic missile is displayed
during the annual military parade in Tehran, on September 22, 2023.
These sentiments, while commendable, especially considering a distasteful
alternative for Iran, are unfortunately delusional. The problem, of course, is
that after seeing what happened when Libya's General Muammar Ghaddafi gave up
nuclear weapons in 2003 and Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1994, no one with
an IQ above single digits would ever agree to give up nuclear weapons again –
especially after so many decades of immense investment and just "weeks" from the
project's successful completion.
Both Ghaddafi and Ukraine acted in good faith -- as opposed to Russia. In 1994,
Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum,
in which they promised to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Belarus
and Kazakhstan, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against those
countries or their political independence, in exchange for the three former
Soviet republics transferring their nuclear weapons stockpiles to Russia.
Of course, in February 2022, after seeing US President Joe Biden surrender
Afghanistan to the Taliban and imply that a "minor incursion" into Ukraine would
be acceptable, Russian President Vladimir Putin commenced a years-long,
scorched-earth invasion of Ukraine.
Regrettably, like Russia, Iran has a long track record of deceit, obstructing
investigations, and stalling to buy time. Iran's regime also has the potential
to wait four years until Trump's term in office is over, then pick up where it
left off.
The Iranian regime has recently praised U.S. President Donald Trump -- a gesture
unheard of since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. This sudden
shift is not a change of heart. It is a calculated strategy aimed at
outmaneuvering Trump to ensure the regime's survival. For decades, Iran's
Islamist clerics have built their rule on a foundation of anti-Americanism and
anti-Semitism. The mullahs' newfound diplomatic overtures are nothing more than
a deceptive ploy to buy time, ease sanctions, and protect their nuclear weapons
program. The United States and its allies must not fall into this trap.
Since its inception, Iran's Islamist regime has defined itself by its hostility
toward the United States and Israel. The chants of "Death to America" and "Death
to Israel" have been a staple of Iran's political discourse for more than four
decades. Tehran's ideological opposition to the West is not mere rhetoric; it
has fueled real-world actions, including attacks on U.S. forces, hostage-taking,
and funding and arming terrorist proxies across the Middle East and beyond.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force, using
Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis as their instruments of terror, have
orchestrated deadly attacks on American civilians, allies, and troops.
Iran finds itself in its weakest position in decades. First, its strongest ally
in the region, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was overthrown and fled to
Russia, leading to the collapse of one of Iran's key strongholds. At the same
time, Tehran's most important regional proxies -- Hamas and Hezbollah -- have
suffered significant setbacks at the hands of Israel.
Domestically, the Iranian regime faces perhaps its greater threat: its own
people. The Iranian population, exhausted by decades of economic hardship,
repression and corruption, is overwhelmingly opposed to the ruling clerics.
Nationwide protests have erupted recently, with demonstrators calling for the
end of the Islamic Republic. Men, women, students, workers and members of the
middle class, risking their lives, have risen against the government. The regime
responds with brutal crackdowns, but has been unable to silence the discontent.
Given these pressures, the mullahs running the regime have changed nothing but
their rhetoric.
The Iranian regime has a long history of deception. In 2015, during the Obama
administration, Iran accepted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),
commonly known as the "nuclear deal," which anyhow allowed it as many nuclear
weapons as it could build, from October 2025. Even so, as soon as sanctions
relief was granted in 2015, Iran funneled money into its terrorist proxies and
continued developing its nuclear weapons in secret -- not investing in its
people or improving their living conditions.
Iran's recent moves are part of the same playbook. The mullahs seek to lull the
United States into a false sense of security. They undoubtedly hope that
diplomatic engagement will allow them time to race to nuclear weapons breakout,
or, at worst, another weak agreement that will enable them to rebuild their
military. Whenever Iran gains financial or political leverage, it uses it
against America and its allies. Since October 2023, Iran and its proxies have
attacked US troops in the region more than 200 times.
Just as the world failed to contain Adolf Hitler's Germany before it overwhelmed
Europe, dawdling through negotiations instead of failing to stop Iran now,
before its nuclear breakout, could have catastrophic consequences. The West must
support Israel in its efforts to dismantle Iranian military assets and work
toward imposing the most severe sanctions possible, crippling the regime's
ability to finance its aggression.
Iran's recent shift in tone is nothing more than a survival tactic. The ruling
mullahs remain dedicated to the destruction of America and Israel. Allowing them
any time and relief now only empowers them. Iran's nuclear facilities must be
taken out, sanctions must be intensified, and the Iranian people's fight for
freedom must be supported. Trump must not waste this opportunity.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and
board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on
the US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
*Follow Majid Rafizadeh on X (formerly Twitter)
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21384/trump-iran-disastrous-mistake
Between Iran’s Apprehension and America’s Recklessness
Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
The recklessness of the Israeli occupation forces cannot be understood in
isolation from the American recklessness. President Donald Trump has made
statements in favor of negotiation, and he has repeatedly stressed his intention
to resolve the complex crisis with Iran through negotiations. However,
contradictions abound, aggravating Tehran’s suspicions and concerns. He links
negotiations to sanctions and threatens military action - essentially placing
all his cards on the table.
For its part, Tel Aviv, Trump's sole ally, is pushing for a military solution
against everything it deems an Iranian threat: conventional military facilities,
nuclear sites, and even economic sites. The approach of Tel Aviv and Washington
- of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the Trump administration - breaks with
that of the previous administration, which had been largely focused on
containment. Now, all options are on the table. Indeed, The Wall Street Journal
citing intelligence sources, reported, near the end of President Joe Biden’s
term, that Israel was seeking support for attacks on Iran from the Trump
administration.
Iran’s concerns are well-founded. Trump and his administration have voiced
contradictory and multifaceted positions. On the one hand, he stresses that
reaching a nuclear agreement is his preferred option. Just last week, however,
he reinstated stringent sanctions on Iran and reaffirmed his commitment to
resuming the “maximum pressure” strategy he had implemented during his previous
term. On the other hand, he is narrowing Tehran’s options. He says that it has
two choices: either a written agreement different from the previous one or
military strikes.
This stance has angered Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and his negotiating
team. On the 46th anniversary of the Iranian revolution, Pezeshkian summed up
the current state of play: “If the United States is sincere about negotiating,
why has it imposed sanctions?
This is not the first time we have seen threats of military action against
Iran’s nuclear facilities. Nonetheless, the threat seems serious this time.
President Trump believes that Iran’s leadership is in a state of panic. In an
interview with Fox News, he linked what he described as “Iranian panic” to the
Israeli strikes on Iran’s air defense system on October 26, 2024, predicting
that Tehran is eager to reach an agreement to avoid being bombed.
Iran’s leadership understands that Trump wants to negotiate their “surrender.”
He wants an agreement that encompasses all of Iran’s conventional, ballistic,
and nuclear capabilities, as well as its regional influence. Brigadier General
Majid Khademi, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Intelligence
Protection Organization, responded by saying: “Trump has approached negotiations
with deception and trickery. His aim is to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program,
missile system, and conventional weapons.” He added that negotiations with
Washington have become increasingly perilous. Concerns over Trump’s approach to
Iran (military, nuclear, and foreign policy dimensions) have pushed Iran’s
leadership to take a hardline position endorsed at the highest level. Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the final say, publicly rejected negotiations with
Washington. “It is not intelligent and will not solve Iran’s problems,” he said,
suggesting that past experiences prove Washington fails to uphold its end of the
bargain, even when Tehran had made significant concessions.
Between fear and recklessness, Tehran is seeking a way out of confrontation.
However, it refuses to sign an all-encompassing agreement that would contain its
regional influence, restrict its ballistic missile program, and put an end to
its nuclear ambitions. Such an outcome would deal a fatal blow to both the
regime and the revolution. In other words, while Iran may offer concessions on
certain issues, it cannot compromise on this “trinity” that sustains what
remains of its “revolutionary legitimacy,” which is already the subject of an
open-ended internal debate that could go either way.
Iran: Gravy Train to Africa
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 15/2025
Imagine that you have between $3 to $5 billion to spend on seeking and securing
clients for your product in a variety of markets, Not bad, eh? But what happens
when events beyond your ken suddenly close those markets to you? One solution is
to try and develop new products capable of making inroads in different markets.
Another is to seek new markets for the old product. This is the conundrum that
the ruling mullahs in Tehran face today. Thanks to the late Yahya Sinwar who
opened the gates of hell on October 7 2023 Tehran, a self-designated exporter of
revolution, lost its markets not only in Gaza and the West Bank but also in
Lebanon and Iraq. Then it was the turn of the then unknown Ahmad al-Sharaa to
cakewalk his way into Damascus and force the peddlers of Khomeinist revolution
to run for cover. Next, the Khomeinist product lost its market share in Iraq and
the chunk of Yemen held by Houthis.
"Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei describes the past 12 months as "a year of
victories for Islamic Resistance” led by his government. But some of his aides
disagree. Brigadier-General Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Islamic
Assembly (sort of parliament) says no one should deny the "setbacks" suffered
across the Middle East.
His advice is that Tehran should look for new "battlefields,” that is to say
markets to promote its revolutionary product.
But where to go? No Middle Eastern nation would unroll the red carpet for an
Iranian delegation coming to foment revolution. In Europe, even those who once
did seek the mullahs now shun them with disdain. No one in Asia expresses an
interest in seeking revolutionary instruction from Tehran. Even those Latin
American regimes that presented themselves as allies, albeit in exchange for
wads of cash from Iran show no enthusiasm for receiving Iranian guests at this
time. Exporting revolution to Antarctica or the North Pole is also a
non-starter.
That leaves Africa, designated by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi as the
future hub of global power. But even there the market that Tehran seeks for
exporting revolution is not as wide as the continent. Egypt is excluded if only
because the mullahs cannot ignore the late Khomeini's "fatwa" forbidding
diplomatic ties because of the Camp David peace accords.
Libya is out of the Iranian loop because both authorities that compete for power
there regard Tehran as a pan in the neck rather than a helping hand. Seen from
Tehran, Tunisia is too far gone in Westernization to be receptive to a doctrine
of hijab, hand-chopping and stoning to death in the name of opposing the "Great
Satan.” In the 1990s, Tehran tried to hitch-hike into the Algerian civil war by
helping the Front for Islamic Salvation (FIS) through its sympathizers in
Germany. Then Islamic ambassador to Germany Hussein Mussavian met a couple of
FIS activists to offer them "seed money" but failed to establish reliable links
with the rebel groups inside Algeria.
Tehran has always seen Morocco as a hard nut to crack. For a while Mauritania,
which also calls itself an Islamic Republic, kept its door open to the Iranian
mullahs but never allowed them to foment sedition or preach their version of
"pure Islam."
For about a decade, Sudan under President Omar al-Bashir and his erstwhile ally
Hassan al-Turabi was a welcoming land to Tehran's mullahs. Today, however, none
of the countries mentioned above offer a welcoming profile to Tehran. Some have
normalized relations with Israel and seek closer ties with Western democracies.
Others prefer to focus their energies on economic development rather than
"anti-Imperialist" shenanigans. Others fear that Khomeinism could bring with it
the seeds of religious schismatism.
In southern Africa, relations with Zimbabwe went awry when Khamenei, then
President visited Harare and quarreled with him officials there.
Nevertheless, Harare is one of the first targets of what Tehran calls its
"Opening to Africa." Several political, economic and security teams have already
visited to prepare the ground for a grand tour of Africa for President Masud
Pezeshkian.
Meanwhile Araqchi has already sent teams to West Africa where several states
have severed or lowered ties with Israel, expelled French and American military
advisers, replacing them with Russian elements from the newly created Russian
Afrika Korps.
Qalibaf, too, has visited Ethiopia as part of a plan to build a diplomatic
profile in the hope of one day entering the presidential race in Tehran for the
fourth time.
A big target is Nigeria where Tehran claims that its surrogates led by Sheikh
Ibrahim al-Zakzaki have converted over 20 million people to duodecimain creed
over the past decades at a low cost of $1billion.
Tehran hopes to act as Man-Friday to its two giant allies China and Russia that
have also chosen Africa as the future battleground against Western hegemony.
The trouble is that Tehran tries to enter the game at a time both Beijing and
Moscow are losing ground in Africa for a variety of reasons while several
emerging African " tigers,” notably Senegal and Ghana try to adopt the Western
model of capitalist democracy rather than the brands offered by Russia and China
let alone the Khomeinist republic. For almost three decades, Tehran spent over
$30 billion exporting evolution and ended up with nothing. In the process,
hundreds of individuals, including the late Gen. Qassem Soleimani and associates
like Nasrallah and Bashar al-Assad, made huge sums of money. With that gambit
closed, we witness new efforts to keep the gravy train on rail, this time with
destination Africa.
How Syrians can pursue justice, fast-track peace in
post-conflict era
ANAN TELLO/Arab News/February 15, 2025
LONDON: While thousands across the Syrian Arab Republic celebrated the fall of
Bashar Assad on Dec. 8, others were fearful of the retribution they would likely
face for their ties to the ousted regime. For many, those fears are quickly
realized. The Syrian people endured immense suffering over the course of the
nation’s 13-year civil war, with countless killed, displaced, or disappeared by
the regime and its militia allies, fueling impatient calls for justice. As a
result, areas of rural Homs and the Mediterranean coast with high densities of
Alawites — the ethno-religious group from which the Assad family traced its
roots and drew much of its support — have seen mounting instability. Reports of
sectarian killings began to emerge as the interim government carried out
security sweeps, while armed men, reportedly seeking revenge against those they
deemed responsible for the years of bloodshed, have taken the law into their own
hands. Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and
Policy, believes the interim government in Damascus faces a significant
challenge of balancing accountability with social cohesion and stability.
The new leaders “fully understand that pursuing accountability head-on at this
point, given the fragile security situation, could lead to a resurgence of
extremist groups, paramilitary militias, and territorial factions,” Shaar told
Arab News. In early December, as rebel forces led by the militant group Hayat
Tahrir Al-Sham advanced into Homs before going on to topple the Assad regime,
tens of thousands of Alawites fled the central province to the Syrian coast,
fearing reprisals. Camille Otrakji, a Syrian-Canadian analyst, says the exodus
of Alawites to their heartland on the Mediterranean coast “has led many to
question whether this phase constitutes a low-intensity ethnic cleansing project
aimed at relocating Alawites exclusively to the coastal region.” “While
Christians in Aleppo and Alawites in the coastal region of Syria are less
frequently subjected to human rights abuses, those in central Syria (Homs and
Hama governorates) are the ones who bear the brunt of the punishment,” Otrakji
told Arab News. As fear of retribution and sectarian violence spread through the
Alawite community and other ethnoreligious groups, Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa
pledged in late December that his administration would protect the country’s
diverse sects and minority groups. However, as of Feb. 7, the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, has documented 128 retaliatory
killings across 11 provinces since the start of 2025 alone — with Homs leading
the toll, followed by Hama. Alawites, a Muslim sect who constitute around 10
percent of Syria’s population, are at particular risk of collective punishment —
including for those who opposed Assad.
During the 50-year rule of Bashar and his father Hafez, Alawites formed the
backbone of the regime, with around 80 percent of them working for the state —
many in intelligence, security, or the military, according to the Washington
Institute. After Assad’s ouster and the rebel coalition’s capture of Damascus in
December, interim authorities moved to curb the spread of arms, urging former
conscripts and soldiers to surrender their weapons. However, many have chosen to
hold on to these weapons — in many cases for self defense. In response, security
forces launched an operation in Homs in January to capture “remnants of Assad’s
militias.” The operation followed clashes in Alawite neighborhoods, sparked by
an old video that resurfaced in December, showing rebels burning the shrine of
the Alawite sect’s founder. Quoting a security official, state news agency SANA
said on Jan. 2 that the security campaign targeted “war criminals and those
involved in crimes who refused to hand over their weapons.”While security forces
were conducting raids in rural Homs, members of the Alawite community shared
videos on social media showing militants, reportedly linked to HTS, beating and
abusing Alawites in Homs and in coastal areas while hurling sectarian insults.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated that within a month of Assad’s
ouster, at least 160 Alawites were killed in raids and sectarian attacks. In a
recent incident documented by the war monitor, “unidentified gunmen” opened fire
on civilians at the Baniyas-Jabaleh junction in the coastal region, killing a
former officer and a worker.
Similarly, in rural Homs, factions linked to the new administration reportedly
raided the village of Al-Dabin, attacked a civilian home and killed a young man.
Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University
of Oklahoma, said that as social media and word of mouth spread reports of
killings, robberies, and kidnappings, “lawlessness, particularly in the Alawite
villages around Homs and Hama, is causing near hysteria within the community.”
“Many Alawites are demanding justice,” he told Arab News. “They understand that
the Assad regime committed terrible atrocities, particularly in the prisons, but
they fear that the wrong people are being killed in random attacks and revenge
killings.”
He added: “One of the primary reasons for animosity toward the new government of
President Al-Sharaa within the Alawite community is the lawlessness now
overtaking the coastal region.” Shaar of the New Lines Institute says the
perceived delay in tackling this lawlessness might be due to the need to first
establish the state’s monopoly on the use of force during this transitional
period. “I think the caretaker government is prioritizing stabilizing security,
consolidating power, and establishing a monopoly on force, as any state should,
before addressing these violations,” he said. Referring to the new authorities,
he added: “I still don’t see their vision, and maybe we shouldn’t expect one
this early. Perhaps it does take time. “In that sense, it’s understandable for
them to wait before developing a vision for accountability, given the magnitude
and sheer scale of the violations that occurred during the conflict.”
However, the situation is likely to escalate as Alawites are pushed out of key
state roles and public sector jobs under the new government’s plan to cut a
third of its workforce. With lost livelihoods, hunger is already widespread in
Alawite areas.
“Many Alawites have lost their jobs or fear being pushed out of their jobs as
purges are being carried out in government ministries,” said Landis. “Of course,
the military, police force, and intelligence services were packed with Alawites.”
Fighters affiliated with the interim government have allegedly carried out
summary executions in Homs. In late January, Syrian authorities accused members
of a “criminal group” of “posing as members of the security services” and
abusing residents, according to SANA.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the new authorities have arrested
“dozens of members of local armed groups” who participated in the security
operations in Homs. Their arrest came after 35 people, mostly Assad-era
officers, were summarily executed within 72 hours, according to the war monitor.
These groups “carried out reprisals and settled old scores with members of the
Alawite minority … taking advantage of the state of chaos, the proliferation of
arms and their ties to the new authorities,” it said.
In addition, the war monitor listed “mass arbitrary arrests, atrocious abuse,
attacks against religious symbols, mutilations of corpses, summary and brutal
executions targeting civilians” among the “unprecedented level of cruelty and
violence.”These crimes demand an urgent transitional justice process to help
prevent further bloodshed and division. However, unless the various armed groups
are integrated into the Syrian Ministry of Defense, the security situation will
likely continue to escalate. “The new government must get control of the many
militias that are not directly under government control,” said Landis. “They
must also build their police forces so that they can bring some accountability
to the countryside and stop crime.”He added: “Even more important than a proper
police force is a justice system that can provide the equality and
accountability that President Al-Sharaa has been so eloquent in proclaiming will
define the new Syria.”On Jan. 30, in his first state address as president, Al-Sharaa
vowed to “pursue the criminals who shed Syrian blood and committed massacres and
crimes,” in addition to working to form an inclusive transitional government. As
Syria’s new leader “seeks historical recognition as the architect of a
transformed and improved Syria,” he “must demonstrate his ability to curtail the
influence of his armed militias,” said analyst Otrakji. Al-Sharaa “recognizes
that establishing and maintaining favorable relations with influential global
powers and moderate Arab nations is crucial for achieving success,” he said.
“These nations have expressed their hope that Syria under his leadership will
provide a secure environment for its minorities and uphold their rights as equal
citizens.”
Al-Sharaa’s main challenge, however, “is that tens of thousands of armed men
wielding significant power in the new Syria are not necessarily motivated by the
same goals as their leader,” said Otrakji. “Their objectives vary widely. Some
are driven by a desire to purge Syria of ‘heretic’ sects. Others aim to impose
strict moral codes, including regulating women’s attire. Some seek to seize the
property — whether homes or mobile phones — of Alawite villagers, while others
revel in the daily opportunity to humiliate them.”
The international community warns that peace and lasting security in post-Assad
Syria requires the adoption of transitional justice, strengthening the rule of
law, and holding free, fair elections to form a legitimate government.
“It’s not easy to have a genuine accountability process that is fair and
inclusive, but that also ignores their own violations,” said Syrian analyst
Shaar, referring to the new authorities. “Someone might say: ‘It’s good we’re
talking about this, but tell me about the disappeared in HTS areas, or about
extrajudicial killings.’ If you open that door, where do you stop?”Although
transitional justice would be a very complex process, it is likely the only path
to stabilizing Syria. “Transitional justice seeks to help societies recover from
widespread abuse and systematic repression, prioritizing victims and their
interests while ensuring that perpetrators are held accountable through a fair
and transparent process — without it becoming a tool for revenge or perpetuating
new injustices,” Harout Ekmanian, a public international lawyer at Foley Hoag
LLP in New York, told Arab News.
“Post-conflict Syria has a range of transitional justice mechanisms it can
implement,” Ekmanian added, citing criminal trials, truth commissions, security
sector reforms, reparations, and memorial initiatives for victims. Implementing
these mechanisms successfully “requires the active leadership of the state,
working in close collaboration with the legal community, human rights
organizations, and victims or their representatives,” he said.
Ekmanian, who is originally from Aleppo, added: “Community awareness campaigns
should accompany these efforts to educate the public on the concept of
transitional justice and its role in fostering reconciliation and building a
stable future.
“This would help manage public expectations. These campaigns should promote a
discourse that encourages cooperation among all parties rather than fostering
division or demonizing any group.”The international community has called for the
creation of a national transitional justice committee to document violations,
offer psychological and social support to victims, and promote social
reconciliation.
This committee could model the South African Truth and Reconciliation
Commission, a proven conflict resolution model that followed the end of
apartheid, to help Syria confront its past and build a future of justice and
accountability.
Ekmanian said such commissions investigate past human rights violations and
recommend pathways to justice. “However, they go a step further by actively
fostering reconciliation between victims and perpetrators,” he said. “They often
incorporate restorative justice elements, such as public apologies, amnesty
provisions, and dialogue processes, to help heal societal divisions.”Truth and
reconciliation commissions “could play a crucial role in gathering the
narratives of victims and society, helping to establish the truth about a range
of mass abuses,” including “the atrocities committed in Assad’s prisons, the
torture, the sieges and indiscriminate bombings of civilian areas, chemical
massacres, corruption, and last but not least, the fate of thousands of forcibly
disappeared individuals.
“However, as with any transitional justice mechanism, the work of truth and
reconciliation committees must be balanced with the need to maintain communal
peace and stability,” he added. The new government’s appointment of leaders from
a single political, religious, and sectarian group has raised skepticism among
Syrians about its ability to pursue an inclusive transition. Moreover, a history
of deep sectarian divides and vengeance across the region presents a significant
challenge to a truth and reconciliation process. Otrakji said: “Regrettably, the
pervasive sentiment of revenge deeply ingrained in the collective psyche of the
Middle East and the Mediterranean poses a significant challenge to the
possibility of a South African-inspired truth and reconciliation process in
healing the deep-seated wounds of Syria’s protracted history of conflict.”
Netanyahu loves presents and he got one while visiting
Washington
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/February 15, 2025
The Netanyahus, that is to say Prime Minister Benjamin and his wife Sara, love
the high life and they crave presents, preferably expensive ones. But on the
occasion of his recent visit to Washington, the Israeli prime minister received
a special present from US President Donald Trump, one that cannot be purchased
in designer shops: a political rope, thrown out to save his drowning coalition.
Like many presents, it came with a price, but in this case the price will be
paid by the Palestinians of Gaza, who will, if Trump and Netanyahu get their
way, be ethnically cleansed from Gaza. And it will also be paid by Egypt and
Jordan, who are being pressured into absorbing more than 2 million refugees.
Netanyahu is accustomed to receiving freebies, but on this occasion the gift is
one that constitutes a war crime, probably several of them, and while he might
think it sums up a successful visit to Washington, this is a minority opinion.
If you are wondering just how repulsive this plan is for the so-called
“relocation” of most of the population of Gaza to neighboring countries, the
very fact that it was greeted with unabated delight and enthusiasm by Bezalel
Smotrich, the ultra-right Israeli finance minister and leader of the Zionist
Religion party, provides a clue. One cannot remember the last time he showed any
trace of humanity, either to Palestinians or even to his own fellow citizens who
are still languishing as hostages of Hamas.
Netanyahu returned from Washington satisfied, even complacent, not because he
thinks Trump’s plan is implementable — he probably knows these ideas might even
signal the end of any chance of normalization with Saudi Arabia, and undermine
Israel’s peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan — but because for him these are
secondary considerations compared with the opportunity the Trump plan provides
for him to keep his coalition government together.
Smotrich and his party remained in the coalition despite opposing the ceasefire
deal, mainly to prevent its second phase, which entails ending the war. If
Washington continues to come bearing such gifts, Netanyahu might also be
celebrating the return to the coalition of Itamar Ben Gvir and his bunch of
Khanists, which might improve the chances of this government surviving until
next year’s election.
There were some other, lethal, gifts for Netanyahu during his visit to the US.
Trump, for instance, instructed the Pentagon to release the hold imposed by the
Biden administration on the supply of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel. The State
Department also approved the sale of weapons worth more than $7.4 billion, and
is considering sending to Israel 24,000 assault rifles that were held up on the
orders of Antony Blinken, the former secretary of state, for fear that many of
them would end up in the hands of violent settlers. No prime minister should be
as smug as Netanyahu was during his trip to Washington and upon his return home,
not when he is responsible for so much suffering, among both Israelis and
Palestinians. If Netanyahu does not care for his own people, how could anyone
expect him to show any sympathy for the Palestinians?
After the last round of exchanges of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners,
we all learned of the disturbing conditions endured by at least the three
hostages most recently returned by Hamas. We can only imagine the state of the
few remaining captives who are still alive, probably only barely so.
That is not to say that Hamas does not bear responsibility for the poor
condition of the hostages, and for the way they were most cruelly and
grotesquely paraded moments before their release. However, Netanyahu and his
government were warned about the starvation and torture the captives have been
enduring, and yet for many months the Israeli leadership remained opposed to the
idea of negotiating any deal that could free them, despite several opportunities
to do so.
They preferred to continue the war, not because this was the recommendation of
their military chiefs, but to appease ultra-right members of the coalition; this
took precedence over the lives and health of those who were kidnapped on the
prime minister’s watch.
If Netanyahu does not care for his own people, how could anyone expect him to
show any sympathy for the Palestinian people and the enormity of their
suffering? Sadly, in this he has found a kindred spirit in the White House —
probably several of them.
One of the reasons Netanyahu resorted to delaying tactics in the ceasefire
negotiations with Hamas was his hope that Trump would return to the presidency.
In this sense, his gamble seems to have paid off, at least for him if not for
anyone else.
The early signs in the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration were
encouraging, as it appeared he was prepared to put pressure on Netanyahu to
agree to a ceasefire agreement and eventually end the war, including the
withdrawal of the Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. But something flipped
along the way, confirming his reputation for being “unpredictable,” and
surprising even seasoned Trump-watchers, when he delivered the bombshell
suggestion that the future of Gaza should unfold without the people of Gaza, a
call for ethnic cleansing that continues to send shock waves across the world.
Declaring publicly that the US solution for Gaza entails a massive war crime —
and doing so while Netanyahu, the first leader to visit the White House since
Trump’s inauguration, was standing next to him in the White House — means his
plan must be taken seriously, not simply shrugged off as just another one of his
bombastic statements that could never happen. After all, this man holds the most
powerful position in the world.
And we should also bear in mind that he made his unexpected announcement while
standing next to an Israeli prime minister who, despite his obvious surprise,
was quick to embrace the idea, calling this plan, which falls short even of the
description half-baked, “revolutionary” and “creative.”
If Trump wants to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, and he desperately does,
forcing 2 million people from their homes and handing their territory to the US
is not likely to convince the award committee that he is the most suitable
candidate.
Netanyahu knows very well that even if he plays along with Trump’s terrifying
fantasies, it might buy his coalition a temporary reprieve but it will damage
Israel’s reputation for generations to come, along with any prospect of
acceptance in the region, and would end any remaining perceptions of Israel as a
progressive democracy. For that reason, and so many others, he should have
warned the new White House administration not to even toy with such a revolting
idea, but instead to support the reconstruction of Gaza for, and with, its
Palestinian people. But this would have required a principled and courageous
leader, not one whose only concern is to escape justice by derailing his own
corruption trial.
• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg
Unity, stability the key goals of Syria’s post-Baathist
transition
Dr. Gyorgy Busztin/Arab News/February 15, 2025
The Baath Party, once a dominant force in the Arab world, has been reduced to a
dwindling memory of its former rule, running down its legacy in Syria in the
face of the Assad regime’s demise. Its collapse, following decades of repression
and sociopolitical upheaval, marks the expiration of an ideology that shaped the
region, but left a legacy of division and authoritarianism. As Syria begins to
navigate its post-Baathist transition, the lessons learned from Iraq’s de-Baathification
offer a cautionary tale. The dissolution of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party in 2003
led to serious consequences, including institutional collapse, widespread
instability and sectarian violence. If Syria is to avoid repeating these
mistakes, it must chart a different course: one that emphasizes unity, justice
and the integrity of its national statehood. The de-Baathification process in
Iraq was swift and indiscriminate. More than 35,000 government employees lost
their jobs overnight and thousands of military personnel were dismissed as the
Iraqi army was dissolved. This dismantling of state institutions created a power
vacuum that fueled anarchy and sectarian divisions and allowed the rise of
extremist groups like Daesh. Rather than addressing past grievances, Iraq’s de-Baathification
actually deepened societal rifts. The campaign disproportionately targeted Sunni
communities, perpetuating cycles of violence and mistrust. This experience
underscores the importance of pursuing accountability in a manner that promotes
reconciliation rather than retribution.
Syria’s path forward must prioritize inclusivity, justice and a vision for
shared prosperity. Central to this vision will be the reform of state
institutions, ensuring that they serve all citizens equitably, regardless of
sect or ethnicity. This requires rebuilding governance structures on the
principles of merit and fairness, fostering a system that includes voices that
have been previously marginalized by decades of authoritarian rule.
The scale of the challenge is immense. According to the UN High Commissioner for
Refugees, as at the end of 2023, 16.7 million people in Syria required
humanitarian assistance, the highest number since the onset of the crisis.
Additionally, there are 7.2 million internally displaced persons as per the
Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement, reflecting the devastating toll of
conflict on the population. These figures underscore the urgency of
comprehensive governance reforms and inclusive recovery plans to address the
needs of the most vulnerable.
The international community must recognize the critical importance of
safeguarding Syria’s sovereignty. Accountability will also play a critical role
in healing societal wounds. Establishing a transitional justice framework,
rooted in international norms, is essential to address past grievances without
resorting to collective punishment. By holding perpetrators of war crimes and
human rights abuses accountable, Syria can begin to rebuild trust among its
people. Economic reconstruction stands as an equally urgent priority. Over the
last decade, Syria’s economy has suffered a catastrophic decline, with its real
gross domestic product contracting by about 84 percent between 2010 and 2023,
according to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs. Estimates of the cost of
rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure range between $400 billion and $600
billion, highlighting the monumental financial resources required for recovery,
according to Arabian Gulf Business Insight. This task will demand robust
international support, particularly from the Gulf states, which have
demonstrated their commitment to regional stability. Through partnerships and
targeted investments, Syria can pave the way for sustainable development, job
creation and the reintegration of displaced communities. Moreover, regional and
international cooperation is vital. Syria’s stability (or lack thereof) will
have an effect that extends beyond its borders, impacting the broader Middle
East. Collaborative efforts with neighboring countries and global institutions
must be prioritized to ensure security and foster a peaceful transition. The
UAE’s diplomatic leadership, with its emphasis on dialogue and humanitarian
initiatives, offers a model for constructive engagement in Syria’s recovery
process. At the heart of this vision for the future lies the principle of unity.
Preserving Syria’s territorial integrity is nonnegotiable and fragmentation
along sectarian or ethnic lines risks further destabilization, potentially
perpetuating cycles of violence. The international community must recognize the
critical importance of safeguarding Syria’s sovereignty while promoting
reconciliation and inclusivity.
The end of Baathist rule in Syria offers a historic opportunity to redefine the
country’s future. By learning from its own past mistakes, along with others in
the region, and prioritizing inclusivity, justice and unity, Syria can emerge as
a stable and prosperous state. The global community, particularly key regional
actors, must rally around this vision. Through collaboration and shared
commitment, Syria can transition from a fractured past to a cohesive future that
serves as a beacon of hope for the region.
**Dr. Gyorgy Busztin is Diplomat-in-Residence at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic
Academy.
Why ‘peak pessimism’ about Europe is overdone
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/February 15, 2025
Ursula von der Leyen had been anticipating a fast and furious first 100 days
back in power in her second term as European Commission president. However, the
“Trump storm” from Washington in January and February may have exceeded even her
wildest expectations about what might emanate from the new US presidency. Not
only has US President Donald Trump talked up a cascade of new tariffs on Europe,
including reciprocal measures and sectoral ones on steel and aluminum, he has
also potentially laid claim to begin one-to-one negotiations with Russian
President Vladimir Putin, apparently cutting not only Ukraine, but also wider
Europe, out of negotiations to try to settle the three-year-long war. The
perceived power imbalance between the US and Europe shown in these episodes in
Trump’s first three weeks back in power has fueled sentiment that the EU, in
particular, faces a bleak four years ahead, economically and politically.
However, this “peak pessimism” about Europe may be significantly overdone.
History highlights how sentiment about powers can change, sometimes
significantly. An alternative “Resilient Europe” scenario could unfold in coming
years if the region surprises on the upside, with stronger political resolve.
This follows multiple key elections in 2024 and forthcoming ones in 2025,
including Germany on Feb. 23, which may provide a much-needed political “window
of opportunity” for reform.
What makes Europe’s future economic and political pathway hard to forecast is
that the regional landscape is characterized by intense VUCA (volatility,
uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity). It is full of both risk and opportunity,
with the balance between the two waxing and waning.
At present, there is sometimes unmitigated gloom about Europe’s prospects,
despite the region’s ongoing fundamental economic and political strengths.
However, one of the many ironies about the reelection of Trump as US president
is that it might strengthen rather than weaken Europe by being a driver for
reform to boost economic competitiveness and strengthen security and defense.
Already, Trump’s presidential victory has been one of the key drivers of the
EU’s major trade deal with the Mercosur bloc in South America in December. This
agreement, which was more than 20 years in the making, may not have happened
without the “Trump effect.” There are multiple other potential factors that
could realign perceptions about Europe’s future economic and political
prospects. For one, potentially faster than anticipated interest rate cuts in
2025 by the European Central Bank and other national authorities in the region,
including the Bank of England, could have a larger than expected economic
impact.
There is also a possibility of faster paced progress on former ECB chief Mario
Draghi’s competitiveness agenda than is commonly perceived. This is a major
political priority for von der Leyen amid a blizzard of new economic
initiatives, including a new EU Clean Industrial Deal scheduled to be launched
on Feb. 26, which may become the signature issue of her second term.
The geopolitical context facing Europe is likely to be very difficult in the
second half of the 2020s.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, the next chancellor is likely
to be pro-business Friedrich Merz. His Christian Democrat Union is likely to be
the largest party post-election and form a pro-growth coalition centered around
his Germany 2030 reform agenda. With the current Bundesbank President Joachim
Nagel supporting reform of the nation’s balanced budget amendment (or “debt
brake”), looser fiscal policy may well be on the horizon. Moreover, supply side
reforms could lift the economy markedly in the next four years.
Building from December’s Mercosur agreement, the EU is also negotiating further
trade deals with key Global South powers, including the Gulf Cooperation
Council. Any number of such factors, collectively, may help significantly boost
economic growth. In turn, this could then start reversing lost competitiveness
against other world powers, and boost security and defense spending to boot,
thus tackling one of the Trump administration’s key gripes about the region, as
voiced at the recent Munich Security Conference.
Perhaps the central challenge with enhancing EU competitiveness centers around
the EU’s three largest economies: Germany, France, and Italy. All three are
stagnating, economically, while Southern European powers like Spain, Greece and
Portugal, as well as much of Eastern Europe have outperformed the EU average in
recent years, a trend likely to continue in the medium term. However, we should
not get carried away with positivity. While there is more potential than
commonly perceived for Europe to surprise, with the region at a significant
economic and political pivot point, there are less-rosy scenarios.
Failure to reform, economically, will intensify the political challenges facing
Europe. Right-wing populism is gaining followers, which may yet help create an
existential crisis for the EU — something Draghi highlighted the possibility of
in his European competitiveness report in September.
The geopolitical context facing Europe is also likely to continue to be very
difficult in the second half of the 2020s, even if Trump can deliver a
sustainable deal to end the Ukraine war. Primarily, this is because of the
continuing security problems posed by Russia. Beyond Moscow there are wider
challenges, including the possibility of significant migration flows from the
region’s southern border, plus ongoing tensions in the Middle East, especially
if the current ceasefire between Israel and Hamas breaks down. While the 1920s
became known as the prosperous “Roaring Twenties,” a century later there is a
significant risk that the 2020s will be seen as the “Warring Twenties,” sending
Europe’s future in a negative direction.
*Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.