English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 09/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2025/english.April
09.25.htm
News Bulletin Achieves
Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Click On
The Below Link To Join Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group
https://chat.whatsapp.com/FPF0N7lE5S484LNaSm0MjW
اضغط
على الرابط في
أعلى للإنضمام
لكروب
Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group
Elias Bejjani/Click
on the below link to subscribe to my youtube channel
الياس
بجاني/اضغط
على الرابط في
أسفل للإشتراك في
موقعي ع اليوتيوب
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAOOSioLh1GE3C1hp63Camw
Bible Quotations For today
Now you Pharisees clean the outside of the cup and of the dish, but inside you
are full of greed and wickedness.
Luke 11/37-41: "While he was speaking, a Pharisee invited him to dine
with him; so he went in and took his place at the table.The Pharisee was amazed
to see that he did not first wash before dinner. Then the Lord said to him, ‘Now
you Pharisees clean the outside of the cup and of the dish, but inside you are
full of greed and wickedness. You fools! Did not the one who made the outside
make the inside also? So give for alms those things that are within; and see,
everything will be clean for you."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on April 08-09/2025
Ghassan Salamé and Tarek Mitri — Mummified Relics in the
Government of the Hateful, Reactionary Nasserist Nawaf Salam/Elias Bejjani/April
07/2025
Ortagus says Hezbollah 'cancer', hopes Lebanese would 'cut it out'
US says Ortagus was 'encouraged by frank discussions' in Lebanon
Report: Aoun, Berri, Salam agree on state's monopoly on arms
Higher Defense Council tasked with 'devising plans' for disarming Hezbollah
Salam says Lebanon, Syria can 'turn over new page'
Western security source claims Hezbollah receiving arms and cash via Beirut port
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun discusses bilateral ties with Iraqi Ambassador
ahead of visit to Iraq
Time is running out: Lebanon faces IMF deadline to approve financial reform laws
Ceasefire in place: Monitoring committee tracks compliance to Resolution 1701 by
reporting to Lebanon, Israel
Lebanese President appoints Rawaa Harati as member of Lebanon's IMF negotiation
committee
Lebanese judicial source to AFP: Two French judges to visit Beirut for port
blast investigation
Lebanon judge paves way for indictment of ex-central bank chief Salameh
King Abdullah of Jordan receives Greek Melkite Patriarch of Antioch and All the
East
To avert the specter of war and fulfill international commitments, implementing
the constitution requires decisive action, not protracted dialogue, especially
given the negative consequences of endless "compromise."/Lara Yazbek/Nidaa Al
Watan/April 9, 2025
Arms and Dialogue: The Duality of Political Suicide/Makram Rabah/Nidaa Al Watan/April
9, 2025
Baabda After Ortagus: Reform and Disarmament?/Alain Sarkis/Nidaa Al Watan/April
9, 2025
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on April 08-09/2025
Military Intervention Only Way to Halt Iran’s Nuclear Program, Says
Netanyahu
US confirms Trump envoy Witkoff to speak with Iran
Iran FM says he and US envoy Witkoff to hold indirect talks in Oman
Iran says deal can be reached if US shows goodwill
Iran Skeptical over Coming US Talks, Iranian Officials Say
Gas Leak at Iranian Coal Mine Kills 7 Workers
Russia’s Medvedev Predicts More Countries Will Acquire Nuclear Weapons
UAE’s foreign minister discusses crisis in Gaza with Egyptian and Jordanian
counterparts
Israel fulfilling ‘none’ of its legal duties as an occupying power, UN chief
warns
Abbas Urges Hamas to Stop Giving Israel ‘Excuses’ in Gaza
Israel supreme court rules security chief to stay in post 'until later decision'
UN Chief Says Forcing Palestinians to Move Away Is against International Law
Egypt, France Sign 7 Billion Euro Deal for Green Hydrogen Facility
Macron Tours Egypt Aid Outpost for Gaza
Preliminary Report Due from Syria Coastal Violence Probe Panel
US, Russia to meet Thursday in Istanbul on restoring embassy operations
Pro-Türkiye Syria Groups Reduce Presence in Kurdish Area, Says Official
US trade delegation visits Iraq
Iran-backed militias in Iraq ‘ready to disarm’
Yemen's Houthis say four killed in US strikes on west
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on April 08-09/2025
Why aid agencies are forecasting a sharp rise in forced
displacement by 2026/Nadia Al-Faour/Arab News/April 08, 2025
What if What Never Happened Did Happen?/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April
08/2025
How the US has squandered its soft power/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/April 08,
2025
Israel’s war on Gaza poised for dangerous new phase/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
News/April 08, 2025
Quiet tensions threatening Israeli-Egyptian cold peace/Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy/Arab
News/April 08, 2025
A US victory over the Houthis will not be enough/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al
Awsat/April 08, 2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on April 08-09/2025
Ghassan Salamé and Tarek Mitri — Mummified
Relics in the Government of the Hateful, Reactionary Nasserist Nawaf Salam
Elias Bejjani/April 07/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/04/142042/
Lebanon’s sovereign interest demands
the complete removal of Ghassan Salamé, Tarek Mitri, and Nawaf Salam from all
national and political affairs. Their own words and actions expose them as
mummified relics of a long-extinct, delusional, and defeatist Nasserist era.
Alongside them, every minister, official, and media figure steeped in the
destructive culture and hollow slogans of the so-called “resistance” and
“defiance” industry must also be dismissed. This failed rhetoric has brought
only devastation upon Lebanon.
Lebanon and its people have had enough of the charlatans, scribes, Pharisees,
Trojan agents, and delusional ideologues who parade as patriots while dragging
the nation deeper into ruin.
Link
to an English Video Interview with US Special Envoy for Middle East Peace Morgan
Ortagus from AlArabiya TV Channel/Hezbollah the Iran-backed group is a “cancer”
within Lebanon that must be excised if the country is to have any hope of
recovery.
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/04/142061/
April 08/2025
US Special Envoy for Middle East Peace Morgan Ortagus has called for the
complete disarmament of Hezbollah, comparing the Iran-backed group to a “cancer”
within Lebanon that must be excised if the country is to have any hope of
recovery.In
a Special Interview on Al Arabiya News presented by Hadley Gamble, the senior
Trump administration official accused Iran of dragging the Middle East into a
perilous new phase of instability.
Ortagus says Hezbollah 'cancer',
hopes Lebanese would 'cut it out'
Naharnet/April
08/2025
Deputy U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East
Morgan Ortagus dubbed Tuesday Hezbollah a "cancer," after she ended a diplomatic
visit to Lebanon where she met with President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
"The past ten years have been devastating for Lebanon, the financial crisis, the
port explosion, and militias around the country, especially Hezbollah who has a
state within a state," Ortagus said in an interview with al-Arabiya, blaming the
Lebanese group and Iran for a devastating war with Israel with "catastrophic
consequences."Ortagus said the people of the south who lost their homes were
forced into a war that no one wanted to be in. "These people deserve a lot
better. I hope they will make the choice to cast off people who only want war
with their neighbors and instead to turn to a brighter future."
The U.S. diplomat went on to say that Hezbollah is "a designated terrorist
organization with a lot of American blood on their hands" and that "when you
have cancer, you don't treat part of the cancer in your body and let the rest of
it grow faster. If you have cancer, you cut the cancer out," as she called for
change in Lebanon and for the disarmament of Hezbollah.
"We are asking, demanding and hoping for generational change in Lebanon
and if they don't do it they won't save their country. I think President Aoun
can do it, I think Nawaf Salam can do it."She added that the U.S. has provided
support for decades for the Lebanese Army. "The Lebanese army has the capability
(to protect Lebanon). They just need the political will."As for her meetings in
Lebanon, Ortagus described the new Lebanese cabinet as "excellent" with no
"party affiliations" and said she was encouraged by President Joseph Aoun and
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam who "really care about reforms" but said the
financial situation in Lebanon is "as bad as it gets."
US says Ortagus was 'encouraged by frank discussions' in
Lebanon
Naharnet/April
08/2025
U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for Middle East Morgan Ortagus was “excited to be back
in Lebanon” to meet with President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam,
Speaker Nabih Berri and Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji, the U.S. Embassy said.
“In all her meetings, she was encouraged by the frank discussions on moving
Lebanon forward into a new era -- which means disarming Hezbollah quickly,
enacting reforms to end corruption, and providing an open and transparent
government so all Lebanese people have faith and confidence in their state,” the
Embassy said in a post on the X platform.Ortagus held meetings in Lebanon on
Saturday and Sunday on her second visit to the country since assuming her post.
Report: Aoun, Berri, Salam agree on state's monopoly on
arms
Naharnet/April
08/2025
President Joseph Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam
unanimously agree on the need for the state to be the sole bearer of arms in the
country, without “any provocation resulting from the use of the term
disarmament,” political sources said.
“This is a mission that President Joseph Aoun will assume and will coordinate
its phases with Speaker Nabih Berri, who is considered Hezbollah’s “big
brother,” and based on this brotherly relation between Berri and Hezbollah the
Speaker will have to explore Hezbollah’s viewpoint on the issue of arms,” the
sources told Al-Jadeed TV. Shiite Duo sources meanwhile told the TV network that
“Hezbollah is not against the exclusivity of arms in the hands of the state” and
that “it agrees with President Joseph Aoun on three principles.”“The first is
that the resistance is not a militia and that its right is enshrined in
international laws, the ministerial statements and the Taif Agreement, which
disarmed militias and did not disarm the resistance when it was implemented,”
the sources said. “The second principle is that the resistance is committed to
the ceasefire and to keeping the area south of the Litani River free of arms,
and accordingly Hezbollah has been cooperating with the army throughout the
entire past period and is in constant coordination with it in the handover of
its arms in the area south of the river,” the sources added, noting that U.S.
envoy Morgan Ortagus “has been put in the picture of this cooperation.”
The sources added that the third principle is that “the resistance’s arms should
be approached as part of a national strategy” and that “this strategy comes
after the liberation of the five hills and the captives, after curbing the
Israeli enemy’s expansion of the buffer zone and after Israel’s commitment to
halt the aggression against Lebanon.” The Shiite Duo sources added that “it is
totally baseless that Speaker Berri is exploring Hezbollah’s stance as to
committing to deadlines related to the handover of weapons.”
Higher Defense Council tasked with 'devising plans' for disarming Hezbollah
Naharnet/April
08/2025
The former government tasked the Higher Defense Council with “devising plans for
removing weapons with the least possible damage” and Nawaf Salam’s government is
“still endorsing the same plan and will not back down,” Minister of the
Displaced and State Minister for Technology Affairs and Artificial Intelligence,
Kamal Shehadeh, said. “The coming months will witness our success in
implementing Lebanon’s international obligations,” Shehadeh added, in an
interview with Al-Arabiya’s Al-Hadath channel. “The national security strategy
calls for monopolizing weapons in the hands of the state, as mentioned in the
ministerial statement,” Shehadeh said, noting that “the government pledged in
its policy statement to approve a national security strategy and this is not
subject to dialogue or to wasting time.”
Salam says Lebanon, Syria can 'turn over new page'
Naharnet/April
08/2025
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam will visit Damascus soon with a ministerial
delegation to meet with Syria's new president Ahmad al-Sharaa. Salam told
Annahar newspaper, in remarks published Tuesday, that Lebanon can turn over a
new page with Syria after a "good" call he had with Sharaa.Salam also stressed
in a meeting Tuesday his government's willingness to carry out reforms,
monopolize weapons and extend the state's authorities across all Lebanon. "The
army is playing a major role in south Lebanon and things are going in the right
direction," Salam said.
Western security source claims Hezbollah receiving arms and
cash via Beirut port
Naharnet/April
08/2025
Al-Arabiya television on Tuesday quoted a Western security source as saying that
Hezbollah has “re-imposed its control over Beirut’s port,” following the 2020
catastrophic explosion at the facility that killed around 220 people and
devastated swathes of the capital. “Through its Unit 190 and Unit 700, Iran’s
Quds Force will depend on sea smuggling operations, whether directly to Lebanon
or through intermediary countries,” the source said. “Hezbollah is operating
with total freedom at Beirut’s port through a network of collaborators belonging
to the customs administration and the inspection authorities at the port,” the
source added, noting that the alleged network is supervised by Hezbollah
security official Wafiq Safa. “Through his agents at Beirut’s port, Safa is
seeking to facilitate the smuggling of equipment, arms and money, without any
inspection or supervision,” the source claimed. The source accordingly warned
that “Hezbollah’s use of Beirut’s port, which is the most important port in
Lebanon, jeopardizes Lebanese interests and threatens foreign investments,”
calling on the Lebanese state to “act urgently in light of Hezbollah’s
violations and plans for Beirut’s port that threaten a repetition of the August
2020 disaster.”
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun discusses bilateral ties with Iraqi Ambassador
ahead of visit to Iraq
LBCI/April 08/2025
President Joseph Aoun met with Lebanon's Ambassador to Iraq, Ali Habhab, to
discuss Lebanese-Iraqi relations and ways to strengthen and develop cooperation
between the two countries. The meeting also addressed the status and concerns of
the Lebanese community residing in Iraq. The two also reviewed ongoing
preparations for President Aoun's upcoming official visit to Baghdad, which will
take place at the invitation of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani.
Time is running out: Lebanon faces IMF deadline to approve financial reform laws
LBCI/April 08/2025
With just days remaining before Lebanon's official delegation heads to
Washington for the April 21 IMF Spring Meetings, a visiting delegation from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has delivered a clear message to Beirut: the
time for delay is over.
During meetings with Lebanese officials, the IMF delegation emphasized the
urgent need for Parliament to pass two key financial reform bills before the
upcoming meetings in Washington. These legislative requirements had also been
stressed earlier by Morgan Ortagus, the U.S. Deputy Envoy.
The first law concerns amendments to Lebanon's banking secrecy legislation,
which has already been approved by the government and sent to Parliament through
a presidential decree. The second, more complex draft law pertains to the
restructuring and regulation of Lebanon's banking sector.
While the Cabinet was expected to approve the banking restructuring law in its
Tuesday session, deliberations remain unfinished. Only the preliminary
justifications for the law were passed, with a ministerial committee of
five—headed by Minister Tarek Mitri—formed to continue its review. This draft
legislation outlines the criteria for evaluating which banks can continue
operating, which must increase capital, and which will be liquidated. It is also
linked to a third law, still in development, concerning the financial
gap—defining total losses and laying out a mechanism for deposit recovery.
However, completion of the financial gap law is not required before the IMF
meetings. Still, some ministers have voiced reservations, arguing that
separating restructuring from the determination of banking losses is
problematic, as the numbers could fundamentally alter the reform framework. If
the Cabinet finalizes the bank restructuring law in the coming days, will
Parliament have enough time to approve it, along with the banking secrecy
reform? Sources close to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri say he is prepared to
call a general session as soon as the Cabinet forwards the draft, provided it is
also passed in the joint parliamentary committees. The spotlight in the coming
days will be on the Cabinet to finalize the banking reform law, and on
Parliament to push both laws through before Lebanon's delegation departs for
Washington. Time is running out.
Ceasefire in place: Monitoring committee tracks compliance to Resolution 1701 by
reporting to Lebanon, Israel
LBCI/April 08/2025
The committee monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire and U.N. Security
Council Resolution 1701 has confirmed that the Lebanese Army's efforts in the
south of the Litani River to address weaponry and military infrastructure align
with the resolution's objectives.
According to sources, the Lebanese Army has successfully dismantled 500 military
sites and weapons depots affiliated with Hezbollah and other armed groups since
the committee began its work. The army has documented these operations through
photos and videos, which have been shared with the monitoring committee.
However, the sources also noted that the extensive military infrastructure
established by Hezbollah and other armed factions over the past 20 years cannot
be fully addressed in just four months. Yet, the committee has not observed any
opposition from Hezbollah to the Lebanese Army's actions. Currently, the
committee's primary focus is to insist that all parties involved in the
ceasefire agreement uphold their commitments. This includes the complete
withdrawal of Israeli forces from South Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah
and other armed groups. The committee's efforts are concentrated in the south of
the Litani River, with plans for potential expansion in the coming months. The
ceasefire agreement specifically calls for the disarmament and dismantling of
Hezbollah's military infrastructure starting from the southern Litani region, a
process that Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun, assert should
cover all of Lebanon, emphasizing that weapons should only be in the hands of
the state. The sources further revealed that when Israel identifies any weapons
storage or military infrastructure, it informs the committee, which then passes
the information to the Lebanese Army. The army is expected to act within 72
hours and document the operations, with the monitoring committee responsible for
assessing the situation if any doubts arise. In cases where Israel perceives
that the situation has not been adequately addressed, Israeli strikes may occur.
The committee also noted that Israel generally informs it of most attacks, which
are then relayed to the Lebanese side. The committee does not classify military
actions as violations of the ceasefire agreement; this decision is left to the
political bodies in Lebanon, Israel, the United States, France, and UNIFIL.
Nevertheless, the committee requests clarifications from Israel regarding the
reasons behind any strikes and shares this information with Lebanese officials.
The monitoring committee is focused on preventing a return to war, prioritizing
the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from five key points, and easing
tensions to reduce casualties among Lebanese citizens. The committee is also
focused on the disarmament of Hezbollah and armed groups, with Israel pushing
for an expedited process.
Lebanese President appoints Rawaa Harati as member of
Lebanon's IMF negotiation committee
LBCI/April
08/2025
Dr. Rawaa Harati has been appointed as a member of Lebanon's national committee
tasked with negotiating a financial recovery program with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF). Harati currently serves as the economic cooperation adviser
to the Lebanese President. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Sorbonne in
Paris and a bachelor's degree in politics and international relations from the
London School of Economics (LSE). Her academic journey also includes research
work at Brown University in Rhode Island, where she co-authored influential
papers in international economics. Professionally, Harati brings extensive
experience from both the public and private sectors. She previously worked as an
economic advisor at the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and served as an advisor
to former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, where she oversaw international
relations and ministerial committee files. In the private sector, she was
director of government relations and public affairs at Dubai-based Majid Al
Futtaim Group, one of the region's largest economic conglomerates. Harati is
also the founder of Kinz Consulting, a firm offering strategic advisory services
at the intersection of economics, finance, and geopolitics. The company focuses
on equipping decision-makers with data-driven analysis and insights.
Lebanese judicial source to AFP: Two French judges to visit
Beirut for port blast investigation
LBCI/April
08/2025
A French judicial delegation is expected to arrive in Beirut at the end of April
to meet with Lebanese judicial officials, including Judge Tarek Bitar, who is
leading the local investigation into the 2020 Beirut port explosion, a Lebanese
judicial source told AFP. According to the source, two judges from the Paris
Investigative Chamber will travel to Lebanon during the last week of April,
carrying a detailed report outlining the findings of the French probe launched
just days after the blast. Judge Bitar resumed his investigative procedures on
January 16, filing charges against ten individuals, including seven military and
security officials, and scheduling interrogations.The judicial source said the
French judges would deliver their report to Judge Bitar, noting that the French
investigation would remain separate from the ongoing Lebanese inquiry. In
parallel, Lebanon has recently received inquiries from Germany, the Netherlands,
and Australia—countries that lost citizens in the explosion—requesting updates
on the investigation's progress, the expected duration of the probe, and the
anticipated date for issuing formal indictments.
Lebanon judge paves way for indictment of ex-central bank
chief Salameh
Reuters/April
08/2025
A Lebanese judge published a new court decision in the charges against former
central bank chief Riad Salameh for embezzlement of public funds, according to a
copy of the decision seen by Reuters on Tuesday, paving the way for an
indictment. Judge Bilal Halawi published a
"presumptive decision" concluding that Salameh, who served as central bank
governor for 30 years before his term ended in disgrace in July 2023, had
engaged in "illicit enrichment" by knowingly transferring funds from the central
bank to private accounts. Salameh's media office said the decision was the
result of a "hastily prepared file" and was "marred by numerous and blatant
legal flaws." The ex-governor, who was detained in September and remains in
custody, has denied all wrongdoing. He did not respond to a request for comment
from Reuters on Tuesday.
King Abdullah of Jordan receives
Greek Melkite Patriarch of Antioch and All the East
Arab News/April 08, 2025
LONDON: King Abdullah II of Jordan received the Greek Melkite Patriarch of
Antioch and All the East, Youssef Absi, on Tuesday in Amman. King Abdullah
emphasized the need to maintain a Christian presence in the Middle East, along
with Jordan’s support for Syria’s security and stability to ensure the rights of
all faith groups. Patriarch Absi acknowledged Jordan’s role in overseeing Muslim
and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem, commending Jordan’s support for
Palestinians and King Abdullah’s efforts in protecting the presence of Eastern
Christians in the Middle East. He said Jordan is a role model for coexistence
and respect for Christian communities, the Petra news agency reported. Crown
Prince Hussein and Prince Ghazi bin Muhammad, who advises King Abdullah on
religious and cultural affairs, attended the meeting. Also present were the
director of the king’s office, Alaa Batayneh, and the heads of the Melkite Greek
Catholic churches in Jordan, Jerusalem, and Lebanon.
To avert the specter of war
and fulfill international commitments, implementing the constitution requires
decisive action, not protracted dialogue, especially given the negative
consequences of endless "compromise."
Lara Yazbek/Nidaa Al Watan/April 9, 2025
(Free translation from Arabic by Elias Bejjani)
Following the assertive stance of Deputy US Special Envoy to the Middle East,
Morgan Ortagus, who aims for the swift collection of illegal weapons in Lebanon,
labeling Hezbollah "a cancer that must be completely disarmed," and the US
Embassy in Lebanon's statement expressing Ortagus's satisfaction with "frank
discussions about moving Lebanon toward a new era" – implicitly the rapid
disarmament of Hezbollah – initial Lebanese officialdom appeared to welcome the
American envoy's perceived flexibility and diplomacy. They were content to
reiterate Beirut's commitment to the ceasefire agreement and UN Resolution 1701.
However, Western diplomatic sources informed Nidaa Al Watan that mere hours
after Ortagus's departure, the terms "dialogue" and "defensive strategy"
resurfaced in official discourse. These phrases had previously been notably
absent, replaced by the more resolute language of "the constitution," "the Taif
Agreement," and "the state's monopoly on arms and the decision of war and
peace." While President of the Republic General Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister
Nawaf Salam publicly reaffirmed their inaugural speech and ministerial
statement, particularly the commitment to restricting weapons to the Lebanese
Army throughout Lebanese territory, they simultaneously introduced caveats,
stating that "Lebanese sensitivities" must be considered and that the arms issue
could be resolved through "communication and dialogue." Notably, during his
reception on Monday of a delegation from the American Task Force for Lebanon
Support (ATFL), President Aoun, when questioned about his vision for disarming
Hezbollah, emphasized "the importance of resorting to dialogue."
A Negative Indicator
While sources caution Lebanon against the perilous assumption of an extended
opportunity to implement its international obligations and collect weapons,
reminiscent of the aftermath of Resolution 1701 in 2006, and the danger of
testing the patience of US-backed Tel Aviv, sovereign circles, speaking to "Nidaa
Al Watan," view the resurgence of the "defense strategy" and renewed calls for a
"dialogue table on weapons," coupled with the emphasis on "considering the
concerns of one party and not provoking another, in order to preserve civil
peace," as a deeply negative indicator. This shift risks frustrating the
Lebanese people and undermining their hopes for a swift transition to a "strong
state" characterized by prosperity and growth.
"A Blow to the Hoof, a Blow to the Nail"
The Taif Agreement is unequivocal, as is the ceasefire decision. Implementing
the constitution does not necessitate dialogue, just as the election of the
president of the republic constitutionally bypasses the "dialogue table" that
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri attempted to impose. The dissolution of all
militias is explicitly stipulated in the Taif Agreement and requires no further
discussion. The defense strategy is the sole prerogative of the state and its
relevant institutions, not a matter for negotiation aimed at appeasing
Hezbollah. These circles warn against an official discourse that adopts a weak
"hit on the hoof and hit on the nail" approach, as this would render the
inaugural speech and the ministerial statement meaningless – mere ink on paper.
They further assert that the implicated party has consistently disregarded the
Lebanese people and their sentiments, demonstrated by the destruction inflicted
upon the nation for the sake of external agendas in Gaza and Tehran. The
imperative for official Lebanon today is to prioritize the will of its people
and the clear dictates of the constitution, without succumbing to extraneous
considerations, to effectively ward off the looming threat of war, fulfill
crucial international commitments, facilitate vital aid, rebuild the nation, and
finally construct a sovereign state.
Arms and Dialogue: The Duality of Political Suicide
Makram Rabah/Nidaa Al Watan/April 9, 2025
(Free translation from Arabic by Elias Bejjani)
"The intoxication is gone, and the idea has arrived" – a poignant proverb
reflecting the sobering reality of Lebanon today. The initial euphoria following
the election of President Joseph Aoun and the appointment of Nawaf Salam to form
the government has rapidly dissipated, revealing a more complex and potentially
illusory hope for a genuine breakthrough. A significant root of the current
crisis lies in collective inaction: the failure to hold the political elite
accountable, to prevent Lebanon's transformation into a battleground for futile
conflicts, and to resist Hezbollah's insidious infiltration of the state
structure. Morgan Ortagus's recent visit to Beirut served as a stark reminder of
this paralysis. Her perception was clear: official Lebanon remains mired in
chronic political impotence and appears incapable of absorbing direct messages,
including the urgent need to disarm Hezbollah and prepare for negotiations
toward a peace agreement with Israel. These directives emanate not only from the
US administration but also from its Gulf allies, who recognize that Lebanon
cannot achieve stability while controlled by non-state militias.
Alarmingly, the Lebanese ruling class persists in addressing these critical
challenges with the same failed, outdated methodologies that preceded the 1975
civil war. As we approach the fiftieth anniversary of that devastating conflict,
the actions of the authorities demonstrate a profound denial of significant
regional and international shifts and a dangerous detachment from Lebanon's
radically altered geopolitical reality. Even more concerning is the apparent
repetition of a fatal error by the new presidential and governmental leadership:
prioritizing perceived political maneuvering over decisive action. Despite
President Aoun's promise to restore the state's sovereign decision-making, the
official discourse has already shifted to "the necessity of calling for a
dialogue to extend sovereignty" – a tacit admission of a parallel, non-state
entity that is to be negotiated with, not confronted. Consequently, the initial
promise of the inaugural speech and the ministerial statement is diluted,
replaced by evasive language that prolongs the collapse rather than addressing
its fundamental causes.
The irony is stark: ministers within the current government deliberately avoid
mentioning "Hezbollah" or "the weapons," opting instead for vague euphemisms
like "references" or "components." This mirrors the Lebanese tendency to avoid
confronting the reality of cancer, referring to it merely as "that disease," as
if acknowledging the truth has become a societal taboo. However, the reality is
far simpler: a political malignancy cannot be cured by appeasing its underlying
causes. Arms operating outside the state's control are not a safeguard; they
represent national suicide.
This begs critical questions: Why are Aoun and Salam adopting this cautious
approach? What prevents them from taking the necessary bold steps to shield the
nation from imminent danger? Is it the fear of a security implosion? Or is it an
attempt to preserve a fragile, leaderless status quo? Regardless, the fear of
civil war cannot justify the complete surrender of the state to an armed
faction. Indeed, liberating the Shiite community from the burden of these
weapons – a price all Lebanese are paying – may be the essential first step
toward building a genuine state.
Continuing to stall and attempting to buy time will only lead to a catastrophic
outcome: the demise of a "sick" Lebanon, potentially abandoned by the
international community forever. Dialogue remains a necessary tool, but it is
rendered futile when one party is armed, externally supported, and fundamentally
disregards the concept of the state itself. In such a context, dialogue becomes
political heresy, breeding not solutions but further entrenchment.
The time for euphemisms is over. The new government must be held accountable for
actions, not rhetoric. Lebanon can no longer afford metaphors. Instead, it
demands a clear and unequivocal decision: either a sovereign state for all its
citizens or a parasitic mini-state that will ultimately consume everyone. There
is no viable third option.
Baabda After Ortagus: Reform and Disarmament?
Alain Sarkis/Nidaa Al Watan/April 9, 2025
(Free translation from Arabic by Elias Bejjani)
The Key Word in the Meeting
Deputy US Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus's pronouncements leave
no room for ambiguity. Attempts to frame her engagement as either positive or
negative are directly contradicted by her statements, which have placed official
Lebanon at a critical juncture. Ortagus's words provide a clear foundation for
understanding the trajectory of events in the upcoming phase. Washington has
made its decision, unequivocally informing Lebanese officials that the grace
period is over and demanding firm, convincing action, not merely rhetorical
pronouncements. The weight of this demand appears to fall heavily on President
Joseph Aoun. His meeting with Ortagus was pivotal, as she conveyed the US
administration's unambiguous expectations. Washington demands the disarmament of
all illegal weapons, the implementation of international resolutions, robust
border control, the formation of diplomatic committees to engage in negotiations
with Israel, and the achievement of comprehensive reform.
Aoun has reportedly accepted these primarily domestic US demands, with the
paramount issue being the handling of Hezbollah's weapons and other illegal
arms. Following Ortagus's visit, Aoun issued statements reiterating the state's
monopoly on weapons through dialogue. The presidential palace is still
deliberating on how to approach this sensitive matter, and it is evident that
the president is hesitant to pursue forceful disarmament or engage in internal
conflict. However, the American demand cannot be ignored.
Baabda has yet to establish a concrete framework for the dialogue on weapons
that the president has mentioned. It remains unclear whether this will be a
repetition of previous, unproductive rounds, or whether it will evolve into a
bilateral dialogue between Aoun and Hezbollah aimed at persuading the party's
leadership to relinquish its arsenal. In this context, Aoun can leverage the
agreement signed on November 27th, which ended recent fighting, and will likely
work towards its implementation. He also reaffirms his commitment to his
inaugural address, which unequivocally stipulates that weapons are exclusively
under the control of the legitimate government.
Instructions are reportedly being issued to the security services to intensify
their efforts, strengthen their deployment, and implement strict measures in the
area south of the Litani River, in accordance with UN Resolution 1701 and the
armistice agreement. While this region is not currently presenting a significant
problem, Aoun is actively seeking the most effective strategies to address the
arms issue north of the Litani River without triggering a direct confrontation
with Hezbollah.
The Lebanese state finds itself in a genuine quandary due to Hezbollah's
persistent refusal to surrender its weapons. Official Lebanon is reportedly
attempting to implement stricter measures at Beirut's airport by replacing
personnel previously affiliated with Hezbollah to enhance airport security.
Similar efforts are underway at the Port of Beirut, although significant doubts
remain due to Hezbollah's extensive control over state institutions in recent
years and its placement of loyalists in key positions. Consequently, the state
anticipates a long-term struggle to extricate itself from Hezbollah's grip.
Ortagus explicitly linked aid and reconstruction efforts to Hezbollah's
disarmament and internal reform. President Aoun emphasized to the US envoy the
internal desire for reform as a prerequisite for external engagement. In the
next phase, he is expected to accelerate reform plans following the appointment
of new leaders for the security services and the governor of the Central Bank of
Lebanon, and the preparation of economic and banking plans for government
approval.
According to reports, the Council of Ministers is slated to appoint a new head
of the Council for Development and Reconstruction next week and fill other
vacant state positions. President Aoun is reportedly exerting pressure on both
the Council of Ministers and the House of Representatives to expedite the
approval and implementation of necessary reform legislation. Reform is deemed
essential, and with appointments to key power positions in the security and
judicial branches underway, the justifications for inaction will dissipate,
opening the door to combating corruption. However, concerns linger that change
may be superficial, limited to personnel shifts without substantive improvements
in performance.
Aoun is reportedly holding everyone accountable. He recently summoned Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri to Baabda to emphasize the need for parliamentary action to
swiftly approve reform laws and address the arms issue. He also met with Prime
Minister Nawaf Salam, holding him and the government responsible for their
historical failures to meet the required standards. Therefore, rapid action is
expected to define the next phase, preventing Lebanon from descending into
further peril.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on April 08-09/2025
Military Intervention Only Way to Halt Iran’s Nuclear Program,
Says Netanyahu
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
Military intervention is the only way to halt Iran’s nuclear program, insisted
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “You go in, blow up the facilities,
dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision, American execution,” he
said in a video statement Tuesday, citing the US-led intervention in Libya.
Otherwise, he said, Iran will drag out talks for years.Netanyahu repeated his
support for US President Donald Trump’s controversial plan to force Palestinians
to leave Gaza for other countries. Netanyahu met Trump at the White House on
Monday. He also said Israel would keep working against Türkiye's attempts to
establish military bases in Syria, and would turn to Trump, who has a good
relationship with the Turkish president. Netanyahu said he told Trump that
reducing Israel's trade deficit with the US to zero — per a request from Trump —
was “the least we can do for the United States and its president who do so much
for us.” The US had a $7.4 billion trade deficit in goods last year with Israel,
according to the Census Bureau.
US
confirms Trump envoy Witkoff to speak with Iran
AFP/April 08, 2025
The United States confirmed Tuesday that Steve Witkoff, the friend and roving
envoy of President Donald Trump, will speak with Iran in closely watched weekend
talks in Oman. "Special Envoy Witkoff will be there,"
State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters.
Iran
FM says he and US envoy Witkoff to hold indirect talks in Oman
Associated Press/April 08, 2025
Iran 's foreign minister said Tuesday he'll meet with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff
in Oman for the first negotiations under the Trump administration seeking to
halt Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear program as tensions remain high in the
Middle East. Speaking to Iranian state television from Algeria, Abbas Araghchi
maintained the talks would be indirect, likely with Omani mediators shuttling
between the parties. U.S. President Donald Trump, in announcing the negotiations
on Monday, described them as direct talks. Years of indirect talks under the
Biden administration failed to reach any success, as Tehran now enriches uranium
up to 60% purity — a technical step away from weapons-grade levels. Both the
U.S. and Israel have threatened Iran with military attack over the program,
while officials in Tehran increasingly warn they could potentially pursue a
nuclear bomb.
"Our main goal in the talks is naturally restoring rights of people as well as
lifting sanctions, and if the other side has a real will, this is achievable,
and it has no relation to the method, either direct or indirect," Araghchi said.
"For the time being, indirect is our preference. And we have no plan to alter it
to direct."Araghchi's comments left space for Iran to potentially hold direct
talks eventually with the Americans. Such talks aren't known to have been held
since the Obama administration. There was no immediate acknowledgment from the
U.S. that Witkoff would lead the American delegation.
News of talks boosts Iran's ailing economy
After Trump's comments on the talks went public, Iran's ailing economy showed
new signs of life. Its rial currency, which hit a record low of over 1 million
rials to the dollar, rebounded Tuesday to 990,000 rials. The Tehran Stock
Exchange separately rose some 2% on the news. Iran's economy has been severely
affected by international sanctions, particularly after Trump unilaterally
withdrew America from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers in 2018. At the
time of the 2015 deal, which saw Iran drastically limit its enrichment and
stockpiling of uranium in exchange for lifting of international sanctions, the
rial traded at 32,000 to the dollar. Economic upheavals have evaporated the
public's savings, pushing average Iranians into holding onto hard currencies,
gold, cars and other tangible wealth. Others pursue cryptocurrencies or fall
into get-rich-quick schemes.
Trump's letter sparked talks
The negotiations Saturday come after Trump wrote to Iran's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, trying to jump-start direct talks between Tehran and
Washington. Khamenei came down hard on Trump in February and warned talks "are
not intelligent, wise or honorable" with his administration. Meanwhile, Trump is
continuing an intense airstrike campaign targeting the Iranian-backed Houthi
rebels in Yemen, the last force in Tehran's self-described "Axis of Resistance"
able to attack Israel after other militant groups were severely weakened by
Israel during its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. There had been intense anger
toward Trump from Iran's theocracy, particularly over his decision to launch a
drone strike that killed prominent Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in
2020. U.S. officials have said Trump faced assassination threats from Iran in
the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. But Iran may be taking a
different path now. The hard-line Iranian newspaper Kayhan on Saturday published
a piece warning: "Trump will be dead from several bullets into his empty head in
revenge for Martyr Soleimani's blood." A day later, the Press Supervisory Board
in Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance issued a warning to the daily
over the article, which the newspaper later described as satire. Asked about
Trump's mention of planned direct talks between the U.S. and Iran, Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow welcomes them, adding that "we support
settling the issue of the Iranian nuclear dossier by political and diplomatic
means."Peskov added in a conference call with reporters: "We are aware that
certain contacts, both direct and indirect, are planned in Oman and we can only
welcome them as they could lead to the de-escalation of tensions around Iran."
His remarks come as Trump is trying to negotiate a separate peace deal between
Russia and Ukraine, talks that also have happened in the Middle East, in Saudi
Arabia.
An expert-level meeting among representatives from Russia, China and Iran was to
take place in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss Iran's nuclear program, according to
Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in comments carried by
Russian news agencies.
Iran says deal can be reached if US shows goodwill
AFP/April 08, 2025
TEHRAN: Iran’s top diplomat said Tuesday he believed a new nuclear deal could be
agreed with the United States provided Tehran’s longtime foe shows sufficient
goodwill in talks to begin in Oman on Saturday. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
said Iran’s principal aim remained the lifting of sweeping US sanctions. Their
reimposition by President Donald Trump in 2018 has dealt a heavy blow to the
Iranian economy. Trump made the surprise announcement that his administration
would open talks with Iran during a White House meeting on Monday with Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country is an arch foe of Tehran. Trump
said the talks would be “direct” but Araghchi insisted his negotiations with US
Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday would be “indirect.”“We will not
accept any other form of negotiation,” Araghchi told official media. “The format
of the negotiations... is not the most important thing in my view. What really
counts is the effectiveness or otherwise of the talks. “If the other side shows
enough of the necessary willingess, a deal can be found... The ball is in
America’s court.”Speaking Monday in the Oval Office, Trump said he was hopeful
of reaching a deal with Tehran, but warned that the Islamic republic would be in
“great danger” if the talks failed. “We’re dealing with the Iranians, we have a
very big meeting on Saturday and we’re dealing with them directly,” Trump told
reporters. Trump’s announcement came after Iran dismissed direct negotiations on
a new deal to curb the country’s nuclear activities, calling the idea pointless.
The US president pulled out of the last deal in 2018, during his first
presidency, and there has been widespread speculation that Israel, possibly with
US help, might attack Iranian facilities if no new agreement is reached.
Trump issued a stern warning to Tehran, however. “I think if the talks aren’t
successful with Iran, I think Iran’s going to be in great danger, and I hate to
say it, great danger, because they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” he said. In an
interview with US network NBC late last month. Trump went further. “If they
don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” he said.China and Russia held
consultations with Iran in Moscow on Tuesday, after which the Kremlin welcomed
the planned talks. Key Iranian ally Russia welcomed the prospect of negotiations
for a new nuclear accord to replace the deal with major powers that was
unilaterally abandoned by Trump in 2018. “We know that certain contacts — direct
and indirect — are planned in Oman. And, of course, this can only be welcomed
because it can lead to de-escalation of tensions around Iran,” Kremlin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov said, adding that Moscow “absolutely” supported the initiative.
China called on the United States to “stop its wrong practice of using force to
exert extreme pressure” after Trump threatened Iran with bombing if it fails to
agree a deal. “As the country that unilaterally withdrew from the comprehensive
agreement on the Iran nuclear issue and caused the current situation, the United
States should demonstrate political sincerity (and)... mutual respect,” its
foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said. Washington should “participate in
dialogue and consultation, and at the same time stop its wrong practice of using
force to exert extreme pressure,” Lin added.
The Israeli prime minister, whose government has also threatened military action
against Iran to prevent it developing a nuclear weapon, held talks with Witkoff
as well as Trump on Monday. Netanyahu was a bitter opponent of the 2015
agreement between Iran and Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the
United States which Trump later abandoned. That deal saw Iran receive relief
from international sanctions in return for restrictions on its nuclear
activities overseen by the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Trump’s withdrawal from the deal was followed by an Iranian decision one year
later to stop complying with its own obligations under the deal. The result has
been that Iran has built up large stocks of highly enriched uranium that leave
it a short step from weapons grade.
In its latest quarterly report in February, the IAEA said Iran had an estimated
274.8 kilograms (605 pounds) of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent. Weapons
grade is around 90 percent.
Iran Skeptical over Coming US Talks, Iranian Officials Say
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
Iran is approaching weekend talks with the United States over its nuclear
program warily, with little confidence in progress and deep suspicions over US
intentions, Iranian officials told Reuters on Tuesday. The talks were announced
on Monday by US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened
Washington's old foe Iran with military action if it does not agree to a deal
since he returned to the White House in January. Trump has said the talks on
Saturday in Oman will be direct but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi
repeated on Tuesday Tehran's position that they should be indirect, citing what
he called US pressure and threats. "Indirect negotiations can guarantee a
genuine and effective dialogue," he told Iranian state news agency IRNA. Araqchi
said the talks would be led by him and Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff,
mediated by Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi.
A source briefed on US planning for the talks confirmed that Witkoff would lead
the US delegation and that the discussions would be broad in the search for a
nuclear deal and would not be technical in nature. "This is still coming
together," the source told Reuters. Tehran would want to see concrete gestures
from the United States before any face-to-face talks between Iranian and US
officials, Iranian and regional sources said. "The Iranians told us that direct
talks are possible but there has to be a goodwill gesture. Lift some sanctions
or unfreeze some money," a regional diplomat said. Russia backs either direct or
indirect talks between Iran and the US as a chance to de-escalate tensions,
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, adding: "We know that certain
contacts, direct and indirect, are planned in Oman."Russia's lower house of
parliament also ratified on Tuesday a 20-year strategic partnership with Iran, a
sign of the deepening military ties between the two countries. Efforts to settle
a dispute over Iran's nuclear program, which it says is purely for civilian use
but which Western countries see as a precursor to an atomic bomb, have ebbed and
flowed for more than 20 years without resolution. Trump tore up a 2015 deal
between Iran and six world powers - the US, Russia, China, France, Britain and
Germany - during his first term of office in 2017 and talks since then have
stalled.
TENSIONS
With the Middle East aflame since 2023 with wars in Gaza and Lebanon, strikes in
Yemen, exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel and regime change in Syria,
Trump's warnings of military action have jangled nerves across the oil-exporting
region. In Tehran, Trump's warnings are seen as a way to box Tehran into
accepting concessions in the talks Trump demands or face air strikes, three
Iranian officials said. They said the US wanted to push other issues too,
including Iranian influence across the Middle East and its ballistic missiles
program, which they said were off the table. "Trump wants a new deal: end Iran's
regional influence, dismantle its nuclear program, and halt its missile work.
These are unacceptable to Tehran. Our nuclear program cannot be dismantled," a
senior Iranian official said. "Our defense is non-negotiable. How can Tehran
disarm when Israel has nuclear warheads? Who protects us if Israel or others
strike?" said another official. Israel, which has long regarded Iran as its
biggest regional threat, defeated Tehran's Lebanese ally Hezbollah last year and
its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was with Trump on Monday when the US
president announced Saturday's talks. Netanyahu, who has repeatedly urged US
governments to use strikes against Iran's nuclear program, said a diplomatic
solution would be good if it was done "in a full way", citing the complete
dismantling of Libya's atomic program. Iran has pushed back against Trump's
warnings of military action, saying it will not be cowed by threats.
Gas Leak at Iranian Coal Mine Kills 7 Workers
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
A gas leak at a coal mine in northern Iran killed seven workers, three of whom
were Afghanis, state media said Tuesday. President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered a
probe into the incident, which occurred Monday afternoon near the city of
Damghan, some 270 kilometers (170 miles) northwest of the capital, Tehran,
according to a report by the official IRNA news agency. Safety measures may have
been disregarded, the report said. Industrial accidents reportedly kill some 700
workers in Iran each year. Last week, an iron ore mine collapsed, killing one
worker in the country's northwest. In September, an explosion in a coal mine in
eastern Iran killed dozens of workers.
Russia’s Medvedev Predicts More Countries Will Acquire
Nuclear Weapons
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that more countries
would get nuclear weapons in the coming years, blaming the West for pushing the
world towards the brink of World War Three by waging a proxy war against Russia
in Ukraine. Medvedev, who cast himself as a liberal modernizer when he was
president from 2008-2012, now presents himself as an anti-Western Kremlin hawk.
Diplomats say his remarks give an indication of thinking at the top levels of
the Kremlin elite. In a post about the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty
which he signed with then US President Barack Obama in Prague in 2010, Medvedev
said the risk of nuclear conflict was at an all-time high. The treaty is due to
expire in February 2026. Referring to recent statements from the leaders of
France and Britain about their nuclear arsenals, the deputy chairman of Russia's
Security Council chastised European powers for what he said was saber-rattling
over their "meager strategic capabilities" and said the situation was fraught
with danger. "The situation is such that even with the complete cessation of the
conflict over so-called 'Ukraine' nuclear disarmament in the coming decades is
impossible," Medvedev wrote on his official Telegram channel. "The world will
create new, more destructive types of weapons, and new countries will acquire
nuclear arsenals." Russia and the United States are by far the world's biggest
nuclear powers, with about 88% of all nuclear weapons, followed by China,
France, Britain, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea, according to the
Federation of American Scientists.
UAE’s foreign minister discusses crisis in Gaza with
Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts
Arab News/April 08, 2025
LONDON: The UAE’s foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan,
discussed the urgent need to resolve the crisis in Gaza during meetings in Abu
Dhabi on Tuesday with his Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts. Sheikh Abdullah
and Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs, Badr Abdel Ati, emphasized the need for
intensified efforts to restore the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas
in Gaza, and to secure the release of remaining hostages. In addition to the
latest developments in the territory, they discussed other matters of regional
and international interest. In a separate meeting, the Emirati minister and
Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, talked about the latest developments in
the Middle East and ways in which regional stability might be enhanced. In
particular, they reviewed strategies for improving the humanitarian response in
Gaza to ensure the urgent, safe and unobstructed delivery of adequate aid to its
suffering inhabitants, the Emirates News Agency reported. They also reaffirmed
their commitment to continued coordination between their countries on responses
to regional crises and challenges.
Israel fulfilling ‘none’ of its legal duties as an
occupying power, UN chief warns
Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/April 08, 2025
NEW YORK CITY: The UN secretary-general evoked several provisions of the Fourth
Geneva Convention on Tuesday to remind Israeli authorities of an occupying
power’s “unequivocal” obligations under international law. The obligations
Antonio Guterres highlighted included ensuring the welfare of the civilian
population, the supply of food and medicine, and the maintenance of public
health services. “None of that is happening today,” he said. “No humanitarian
supplies can enter Gaza. At the crossing points, food, medicine and shelter
supplies are piling up and vital equipment is stuck.”Speaking in New York to
reporters, the UN chief described Gaza’s current path as a dead end that is
“totally intolerable” in the eyes of international law and history. He also
warned that the situation in the West Bank could spiral into a similar crisis
unless urgent steps are taken to protect civilians, end dehumanization and
restore peace.
Guterres called for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in Gaza and full
humanitarian access to be restored. It has been more than a month since aid
entered the territory, he added, exacerbating an already devastating
humanitarian crisis. “More than an entire month has passed without a drop of aid
into Gaza,” he said. “No food. No fuel. No medicine. No commercial supplies. As
aid has dried up, the floodgates of horror have reopened.”Guterres condemned
proposals by Israeli authorities to introduce “authorization mechanisms” for the
delivery of aid that risk further controlling and “callously limiting aid, down
to the last calorie and grain of flour.” He said the UN “will not participate in
any arrangement that does not fully respect the humanitarian principles:
humanity, impartiality, independence and neutrality.” He warned that “the
situation in Gaza has become a killing field” and civilians are trapped in an
“endless death loop” as a result of the blockade on food, medicine, fuel and
other essential supplies. “Ceasefires work,” Guterres said. “During that
ceasefire (between January and March this year), humanitarian organizations
successfully delivered critical aid, including food and medical supplies, to
Gaza. Guns fell silent, obstacles were removed, looting ended and we were able
to deliver lifesaving supplies to virtually every part of the Gaza Strip. “That
all ended with the shattering of the ceasefire. Hope sank for Palestinian
families in Gaza and families of hostages in Israel.”Guterres expressed deep
concern about the continuing detention of hostages by Hamas and other militant
groups in Gaza. He met the families of the hostages on Monday and reiterated his
call for their immediate release. “With crossing points into Gaza shut and aid
blockaded, security is in shambles and our capacity to deliver has been
strangled,” he continued. He reiterated the declaration made by UN humanitarian
organizations on Monday, who said in a joint statement that “assertions that
there is now enough food to feed all Palestinians in Gaza are far from the
reality on the ground, and commodities are running extremely low.” Guterres
said: “We must stick to our core principles. It is time to end the
dehumanization, protect civilians, release the hostages, ensure lifesaving aid
and renew the ceasefire.“The world may be running out of words to describe the
situation in Gaza but we will never run away from the truth.”
Abbas Urges Hamas to Stop Giving Israel ‘Excuses’ in Gaza
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on the Hamas group Tuesday to stop
giving Israel "excuses" to keep up its devastating offensive in Gaza. Israel
resumed major strikes on the Gaza Strip on March 18, ending a two-month
ceasefire with Hamas. The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said Tuesday that 58
people had been killed in the previous 24 hours. In a statement, the
Ramallah-based Palestinian presidency called on Hamas to "cease making any
irresponsible decisions to spare our people the consequences of (the Israeli)
aggression". The statement pointed to the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza.
"Stop giving the occupation any excuses to continue its genocide," it said. It
called on Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, to "adhere to the official
Palestinian position and the Arab initiatives". French President Emmanuel Macron
met with King Abdullah II of Jordan and President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi of Egypt
in Cairo Monday, where they called for Abbas's Palestinian Authority to rule
Gaza after a ceasefire, and for Hamas to have no role in post-war governance.
The Palestinian Authority is dominated by Abbas's Fatah movement, Hamas's
longtime rival. At their Cairo meeting, the three leaders called for an
"immediate return" to the two-month ceasefire that effectively ended in March.
In its statement, the Palestinian presidency also denounced a newly established
Israeli corridor in south Gaza as a violation of international law. Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the creation of the Morag axis
between the south Gaza cities of Khan Younis and Rafah last week. He presented
the axis as a new Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land along the Palestinian
side of the border with Egypt that the Israeli army has already cleared of
buildings. Witnesses told AFP Tuesday that Israeli forces were present on the
axis, and had set up a surveillance crane equipped with a machine gun at one of
its crossroads.
Israel supreme court rules security chief to stay in post 'until later decision'
AFP/April 08/2025
Israel's Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that the domestic security chief was to
say in his position "until a later decision," following an hours-long hearing on
the government's contested decision to fire him. "A preliminary order has been
issued stipulating that Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, will continue to
perform his duties until a later decision," the court's ruling said, adding
"there is nothing to prevent interviews with candidates for the post, without
announcing an appointment."
UN Chief Says Forcing Palestinians to Move Away Is against
International Law
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday said that it would
be against international law for Palestinians to be forced to be moved away,
responding to questions about a US push to take control of the Gaza Strip. "To
be forced to be moved away is something that is against international law,"
Guterres told a press briefing. "Palestinians must be able to live in a
Palestinian state side by side with an Israeli state. That is the only solution
that can bring peace to the Middle East." Guterres also rejected a new Israeli
proposal to control aid deliveries in Gaza, saying it risks "further controlling
and callously limiting aid down to the last calorie and grain of flour.""Let me
be clear: We will not participate in any arrangement that does not fully respect
the humanitarian principles: humanity, impartiality, independence and
neutrality," Guterres told reporters. No aid has been delivered to the
Palestinian enclave of some 2.1 million people since March 2. Israel has said it
would not allow the entry of all goods and supplies into Gaza until Palestinian
militants Hamas release all remaining hostages. COGAT, the Israeli military
agency that coordinates aid, last week met with UN agencies and international
aid groups and said it proposed "a structured monitoring and aid entry
mechanism" for Gaza. "The mechanism is designed to support aid organizations,
enhance oversight and accountability, and ensure that assistance reaches the
civilian population in need, rather than being diverted and stolen by Hamas,"
COGAT posted on X on Sunday.
Jonathan Whittall, the senior UN aid official for Gaza and the West Bank, said
last week that there was no evidence of aid being diverted. Israel last month
resumed its bombardment of Gaza after a two-month truce and sent troops back
into the enclave. "Gaza is a killing field – and civilians are in an endless
death loop," said Guterres as he again called for the immediate and
unconditional release of all hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and full
humanitarian access in Gaza. "With crossing points into Gaza shut and aid
blockaded, security is in shambles and our capacity to deliver has been
strangled," he said.
"As the occupying power, Israel has unequivocal obligations under international
law – including international humanitarian law and international human rights
law," Guterres said. That means Israel should facilitate relief programs and
ensure food, medical care, hygiene and public-health standards in Gaza, he said.
"None of that is happening today," he added. Israel says it does not exercise
effective control over Gaza and therefore is not an occupying power. The war in
Gaza was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas killed 1,200 people in southern
Israel, and took some 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Since then,
more than 50,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health
authorities.
Egypt, France Sign 7 Billion Euro Deal for Green Hydrogen Facility
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
Egypt and France have signed a 7 billion euro ($7.68 billion) agreement to
develop finance and operate a green hydrogen production facility, Egypt's
transportation ministry said. The agreement was signed during French President
Emmanuel Macron's visit to Egypt. France and Egypt signed strategic partnership
agreements on Monday, in areas covering health, transport and energy, which
Macron said would help shore up Egypt's stability amid volatility in the region.
"Egypt is a strategic partner for our country," said Macron, speaking alongside
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a news conference in Cairo.
"I would thus like to reaffirm France's commitment to ensuring the stability of
Egypt given the context of a worsening climate in the region and as the Egyptian
economy faces challenges," added Macron.
Macron Tours Egypt Aid Outpost for Gaza
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
French President Emmanuel Macron visited the Egyptian city of El-Arish, a key
transit point for Gaza-bound aid, on Tuesday to call on Israel to lift its
blockade of aid deliveries to the war-battered Palestinian territory. Alongside
his Egyptian host Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Macron toured a hospital in the port
city, 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of the Gaza Strip, and met with medical
professionals and sick and wounded Palestinians evacuated from Gaza. Carrying a
bouquet of red roses to give to patients, the French president visited several
wards as well as a play area for children. His office said the trip was aimed at
piling pressure on Israel for "the reopening of crossing points for the delivery
of humanitarian goods into Gaza".Israel cut off aid to Gaza in early March,
during an impasse over next steps in a ceasefire with Hamas. Later in March,
Israel resumed intense bombardment across the territory and restarted ground
operations. Emergency department doctor Mahmud Mohammad Elshaer said the
hospital had treated around 1,200 Palestinian patients since the Gaza war began
in October 2023. "Some days we can receive 100 patients, others 50," Elshaer
said, adding that many had sustained limb amputations or eye or brain injuries.
In Cairo, Macron, Sisi and Jordan's King Abdullah II called for an "immediate
return" to the ceasefire. The three leaders met on Monday to discuss the war and
humanitarian efforts to alleviate the suffering of Gaza's 2.4 million people,
the vast majority of whom have been displaced at least once during the war. In a
joint statement on Monday, the heads of several UN agencies said many Gazans are
"trapped, bombed and starved again, while, at crossing points, food, medicine,
fuel and shelter supplies are piling up, and vital equipment is stuck" outside
of the blockaded territory.
Preliminary Report Due from Syria Coastal Violence Probe Panel
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
The spokesman for Syria’s fact-finding committee investigating the recent
coastal violence said on Monday the panel may request an extension of its
presidential mandate, set to expire on Wednesday, due to the widening scope of
its work. Yasser al-Farhan told Asharq Al-Awsat the committee will submit a
“preliminary report,” but stressed that it will not release any conclusions or
recommendations until the investigation is complete. The committee was appointed
under a presidential decree and began its work on March 9 with a one-month
deadline. “That period ends on Wednesday, but the committee has not yet
concluded its investigations,” Farhan said. He noted that the panel is currently
operating in the coastal city of Tartus and is moving to other locations where
violations were reported. “The committee will not publish any findings unless
they are based on solid reasoning and evidence that supports the facts,
characterizes the violations, and identifies suspects,” Farhan said. “This
requires analyzing and cross-checking all testimonies, assessing the legal
context of the acts, and drawing clear conclusions and recommendations,” he
added. A wave of deadly violence swept through Syria’s coastal region early last
month, claiming the lives of civilians from the Alawite community as well as
members of the general security forces, prompting the formation of an
independent investigative committee. The attacks took place in the provinces of
Latakia, Tartus and Baniyas. The government blamed pro-Assad armed groups for
targeting security forces, while military and paramilitary personnel were
themselves accused of killing civilians in retaliatory assaults. In response,
the Syrian presidency formed the Independent National Committee for
Investigation and Fact-Finding into the Coastal Incidents, comprised of legal
experts. The panel announced on March 25 that it had collected dozens of
testimonies but said it was still too early to release any findings. Asked
whether the committee includes representatives of victims or their families,
Farhan told Asharq Al-Awsat that the panel's members are not government
employees but independent legal professionals.“Some of them live outside Syria
and have worked in Europe or other regions. Others are active in documenting
human rights violations and have memorandums of understanding and cooperation
with the United Nations,” he said.
“Two of the members are Syrian judges, and judges are generally regarded as an
independent.”Farhan stressed that the committee acts on behalf of the victims
and their families. “Its members are neutral and do not represent any single
party.”
“Their work is to be close to the people,” he said, noting that the panel has
met with community leaders from across the coastal region to listen to their
concerns and better understand the context surrounding the unrest.
US, Russia to meet Thursday in Istanbul on restoring embassy operations
AFP/April 08, 2025
WASHINGTON: The United States and Russia will hold talks on Thursday in Istanbul
on restoring some of their embassy operations that have been drastically scaled
back following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the US State Department said. The
talks, the second of their kind, come after President Donald Trump reached out
to Russia following the start of his second term and offered better ties if it
winds down fighting in Ukraine. The two sides will “try to make progress on
further stabilizing the operations of our bilateral missions,” State Department
spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters on Tuesday.
“There are no political or security issues on the agenda, and Ukraine is not —
absolutely not — on the agenda,” she said. “These talks are solely focused on
our embassy operations, not on normalizing a bilateral relationship.”The talks
are going ahead despite Russia rejecting a Ukraine-backed US proposal for a
30-day ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday lamented the
lack of a US response. Trump a day later told reporters that he was not happy
that Russia was “bombing like crazy right now.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously said that it is important for both
the United States and Russia to resume higher staffing at their respective
embassies to improve contacts, regardless of the situation in Ukraine.
Pro-Türkiye Syria Groups Reduce Presence in Kurdish Area, Says Official
Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
Pro-Türkiye Syrian groups have scaled down their military presence in an
historically Kurdish-majority area of the country's north which they have
controlled since 2018, a Syrian defense ministry official said on Tuesday. The
move follows an agreement signed last month between Syria's new authorities and
Kurdish officials that provides for the return of displaced Kurds, including
tens of thousands who fled the Afrin region in 2018. The pro-Ankara groups have
"reduced their military presence and checkpoints" in Afrin, in Aleppo province,
the official told AFP, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to speak
to the media. Their presence has been "maintained in the region for now", said
the official, adding that authorities wanted to station them in army posts but
these had been a regular target of Israeli strikes. After opposition forces
ousted longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad in December, the new authorities announced
the disbanding of all armed groups and their integration into the new army, a
move that should include pro-Türkiye groups who control swathes of northern
Syria. Turkish forces and their Syrian proxies carried out an offensive from
January to March 2018 targeting Kurdish fighters in the Afrin area. The United
Nations has estimated that half of the enclave's 320,000 inhabitants fled during
the offensive. Last month, the Kurdish administration that controls swathes of
northern and northeastern Syria struck a deal to integrate its civil and
military institutions into those of the central government. Syria's new
leadership has been seeking to unify the country since the December overthrow of
Assad after more than 13 years of civil war. This month, Kurdish fighters
withdrew from two neighborhoods of Aleppo as part of the deal. Syrian Kurdish
official Bedran Kurd said on X that the Aleppo city agreement "represents the
first phase of a broader plan aimed at ensuring the safe return of the people of
Afrin".The autonomous Kurdish-led administration's military force, the US-backed
Syrian Democratic Forces, played a key role in the recapture of the last
territory held by the ISIS group in Syria in 2019.
US trade delegation visits Iraq
AFP/April 08, 2025
BAGHDAD: A US trade delegation representing 60 companies was visiting Iraq to
sign economic cooperation agreements with the private sector, Washington’s
embassy in Baghdad said Tuesday. The three-day visit, which began on Monday,
comes amid fears of an international recession after US President Donald Trump
imposed sweeping tariffs on numerous countries, which included 39 percent duties
on Iraqi imports. The US delegation consists of 101 members from 60 companies in
the energy, technology and health sectors, who are set to meet with senior Iraqi
officials and sign agreements, said an embassy statement. It is the largest US
trade mission to Iraq in the more than 100-year history of the US Chamber of
Commerce, the embassy added. In a post on X, the US mission said that a “pivotal
memorandum of understanding to strengthen ties between the US and Iraqi private
sectors” was signed on Monday between the US Chamber of Commerce and the
Federation of Iraqi Chambers of Commerce. “This partnership will foster
long-term economic collaboration,” it said. According to the office of the US
trade representative in Iraq, total goods trade with the oil-rich country
reached $9.1 billion in 2024, with US exports amounting to $1.7 billion. US
goods imports from Iraq totaled $7.4 billion. During the visit, Iraq is expected
to sign a “landmark agreement” with General Electric to develop a
high-efficiency power plant, according to Farhad Alaaldin, foreign policy
adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohamed Shia Al-Sudani. Last year, during
Sudani’s visit to Washington, Iraq and the US signed several memoranda of
understanding in the energy sector, including one with General Electric to
ensure the maintenance of the Iraqi electricity grid. Iraq’s power plants are
currently highly dependent on gas imported from Iran, which provides about a
third of its neighbor’s energy needs.But Tehran has often cut supplies,
exacerbating regular power outages. Baghdad has repeatedly stressed the need to
diversify energy sources to reduce its dependence on Iran. Iraq has been trying
to move past decades of war and unrest, including a sectarian struggle after the
US-led invasion 2003 toppled dictator Saddam Hussein.
Iran-backed militias in Iraq ‘ready to disarm’
Reuters/April 08, 2025
BAGHDAD: Powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq are ready to disarm to avert the
threat of US airstrikes, they said on Tuesday. The move follows repeated private
warnings by US officials to the Iraqi government since Donald Trump took office
as US president in January.
They told Baghdad that unless it acted to disband the militias on its soil,
America could attack the groups. “Trump is ready to take the war with us to
worse levels, we know that, and we want to avoid such a bad scenario,” said one
commander of Kata’ib Hezbollah, the most powerful militia.
BACKGROUND
Militia leaders said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had told them to do
whatever they deemed necessary to avoid being drawn into a potentially ruinous
conflict with the US. The others that have offered to lay down their weapons are
Nujabaa, Kata’ib Sayyed Al-Shuhada and Ansarullah Al-Awfiyaa. Militia leaders
said their main ally and patron, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran,
had told them to do whatever they deemed necessary to avoid being drawn into a
potentially ruinous conflict with the US. The militias are part of the Islamic
Resistance in Iraq, about 10 armed factions with about 50,000 fighters and
arsenals that include long-range missiles and anti-aircraft weapons. They are a
key pillar of Iran’s network of regional proxy forces, and have carried out
dozens of missile and drone attacks on Israel and US forces in Iraq and Syria
since the Gaza war began in 2023. Iraqi security officials said Prime Minister
Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani was pressing for disarmament by all militias that
declared their allegiance to the Revolutionary Guards or its Quds Force rather
than to Baghdad. Some have already quit their bases and reduced their presence
in major cities including Mosul and Anbar for fear of airstrikes.
Yemen's Houthis say four killed in US strikes on west
AFP/April 08, 2025
HODEIDAH, Yemen: Yemen’s Houthis on Tuesday said US strikes on the western
province of Hodeida killed four people and wounded 13 others, a day after the
group said it targeted Israel and US warships. “Four killed and 13 wounded in a
preliminary toll of the victims of the flagrant American aggression,” the
militant's health ministry spokesman Anis Al-Asbahi said in a post on X. The
Houthis’ Al-Masirah TV channel had reported earlier on Tuesday “deaths and
wounded in the US enemy’s targeting” of the Al-Hawak district in Hodeida. It
added that civil defense teams had rushed to the site and were working on
putting out the fires and rescuing any survivors. An AFP journalist near the
site of the strike heard the sound of three violent blasts in succession. Al-Masirah
also reported a US strike on the communications network in the Amran province
north of Sanaa, without providing further details. Houthi-held areas of Yemen
have seen near-daily strikes blamed on the United States since Washington
launched an air campaign on March 15 to force them to stop threatening vessels
in key maritime routes. Since then, the Houthis have also launched attacks
targeting US military ships and Israel, claiming to be acting in solidarity with
Palestinians in Gaza. The rebels began targeting ships transiting the Red Sea
and Gulf of Aden, as well as Israeli territory, after the outbreak of the Gaza
war in October 2023, pausing the attacks during a January ceasefire. Israel cut
off all supplies to Gaza at the start of March, and resumed its offensive on the
Palestinian territory on March 18, ending the short-lived truce. The new US
campaign followed Houthi threats to resume attacks on vessels over Israel’s
blockade on Gaza. The Houthi attacks had crippled the vital Red Sea route, which
normally carries about 12 percent of world shipping traffic, forcing many
companies to make a much longer detour around the tip of southern Africa
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on April 08-09/2025
Why aid agencies are forecasting a sharp rise in
forced displacement by 2026
Nadia Al-Faour/Arab News/April 08, 2025
DUBAI: Ongoing conflicts will force an additional 6.7 million people worldwide
from their homes by the end of 2026, with Sudan alone accounting for nearly a
third of the new displacements, according to the Danish Refugee Council’s latest
predictions. The agency’s Global Displacement Forecast Report 2025 revealed a
massive spike in the number of expected forced displacements this year to 4.2
million, the highest such prediction since 2021. Another 2.5 million are
expected to be forced to flee violence in 2026. “We live in an age of war and
impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price,” said Charlotte Slente,
secretary-general of the Danish Refugee Council. “Our AI-driven modeling paints
a tragic picture: 6.7 million people displaced over the next two years. These
are not cold statistics. These are families forced to flee their homes, carrying
next to nothing and searching for water, food and shelter.”
DRC’s Foresight model, developed in partnership with IBM, predicts displacement
trends by analyzing 148 indicators based on economic, security, political,
environmental and societal factors, across 27 countries that represent 93
percent of all global displacement.
It is a machine-learning model created to predict forced displacement at the
national level over the next one-to-three years. It is built on open-source data
from a variety of sources, including the World Bank, UN agencies,
nongovernmental organizations, and academic institutions. According to DRC, more
than half of the forecasts produced by the model for displacements in a coming
year have been less than 10 percent off the actual figures.
Sudan is experiencing the biggest displacement and hunger crisis in the world,
and DRC projections suggest it will continue to represent the most urgent
humanitarian crisis. By the end of 2026, another 2.1 million people there are
expected be displaced, adding to the 12.6 million already forced to move within
the country or to neighboring nations including Chad, Egypt and South Sudan.
Since April 2023, Sudan has been locked in a brutal conflict between the
Sudanese Armed Forces and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Their
power struggle began in Khartoum and rapidly escalated into an all-out war that
engulfed major cities and cut off humanitarian corridors, sparking the world’s
worst displacement crisis. Entire urban areas have been emptied, and civilians
caught in the crossfire face hunger, violence and sexual assault. The DRC report
warns that the internal dynamics of the war — fragmented front lines, shifting
alliances and a lack of viable negotiations — make any resolution unlikely in
the short term. Insecurity is rampant and basic services have collapsed in large
parts of the country.
The effects of the conflict on civilians are staggering. Once-bustling cities
such as Khartoum and Nyala have become battlefields from which residents have
been forced to flee several times. In Darfur, reports of ethnic cleansing have
resurfaced, raising the specter of the genocide that occurred there two decades
ago. “The situation in Sudan is quite intense and tragic,” Massimo Marghinotti,
a DRC logistician stationed in Port Sudan since September 2024, said in a
first-person report filed from the field. “The fighting has spread across
various regions, and civilians are caught in the crossfire. We see how bombings
and fighting and targeting of civilians lead to severe displacement and famine.
“Millions have fled their homes, and they literally have nothing. No shelter, no
water, no access to food or basic health. I have been working in this field for
more than 25 years and seen a lot, but this humanitarian crisis is severe, and
the suffering in Sudan is heartbreaking.”
Yet despite the scale of the suffering, international attention, and funding,
has been minimal. According to the UN, more than 24 million people in Sudan,
about half of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance. But as of
March this year, aid organizations had received less than 5 percent of the funds
they need to respond. Most agencies are forced to operate with limited access,
risk attacks and face bureaucratic obstacles. While war remains the single
largest driver of forced displacements, the DRC’s report also highlights the
role of economic and climate-related factors. In countries such as Ethiopia,
Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, millions have been uprooted by a
combination of droughts, floods and political turmoil. In Sudan, climate change
acts as a threat multiplier. The country has experienced recurring floods and
failed harvests, exacerbating food insecurity and causing intercommunal tensions
to rise. Many of the people displaced by war are now living in fragile areas
already struggling with environmental shocks. The effects of the crisis in Sudan
extend far beyond its own borders. According to figures released in February by
the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, Egypt has received more than 1.5 million Sudanese
refugees, straining urban infrastructure and pushing thousands into destitution.
Meanwhile, about 759,058 people from Sudan have fled across the border to Chad,
240,000 to Libya, 67,189 to Uganda, and 42,490 to Ethiopia. South Sudan, itself
fragile, has absorbed more than 718,453 people, although the majority of those
are returnees who had been living in camps in Sudan. Host countries, many of
them facing their own economic and political challenges, struggle to keep pace
with the needs of the displaced. In Chad, for example, water and food shortages
are acute. In South Sudan, many returnees face ethnic tensions and limited
shelter. Across the region, humanitarian operations are underfunded.
Displacement is no longer a short-term phenomenon. For millions of Sudanese, in
common with others caught up in protracted crises, the reality is now one of
long-term exile, instability and marginalization.
INNUMBERS
• 6.7m Additional displaced people by end of 2026.
• 33% Sudan alone will account for nearly a third.
In Sudan, many internally displaced persons are now trapped in limbo, unable to
return home but lacking the resources or legal status to settle elsewhere.
Refugees who do reach neighboring countries often end up in overcrowded camps
with limited mobility. Children miss years of school. Families are separated
indefinitely. While Sudan represents the largest and most acute displacement
crisis, it is far from the only one. The DRC’s 2025 forecast also highlights hot
spots such as Afghanistan, Myanmar, Syria, the Sahel, Venezuela and Yemen. The
organization called for a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: stronger
political engagement to help resolve conflicts; greater investment in climate
adaptation and resilience efforts; and a humanitarian system that is more
predictable and better funded. The US, formerly the world’s largest donor
nation, recently terminated 83 percent of USAID contracts. Other major donors,
including the UK and Germany, are also cutting back on aid they provide. These
withdrawals come at a time when humanitarian needs are at an all-time
high.“Millions are facing starvation and displacement, and just as they need us
most, wealthy nations are slashing aid. It’s a betrayal of the most vulnerable,”
said Slente.“We’re in the middle of a global ‘perfect storm:’ record
displacement, surging needs and devastating funding cuts. Major donors are
abandoning their duty, leaving millions to suffer. This is more than a crisis.
It is a moral failure.”
What if What Never Happened Did Happen?
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 08/2025
In the writing genre that falls into the “What if?” category, the author
presumes the occurrence of hypothetical past events that never happened, and
then infers the implications. This is not a futile literary exercise. These
texts point to what had, to this or that degree, once been real possibilities,
and readers take two things away from these possibilities. First, those
non-materialized events underscore the responsibility of those who steered
history in the direction it ultimately went in. Second, they allow for measuring
the misery of the present against the situation that we would have been in if
different policies had been adopted. And of course, this approach always implies
belief in human agency and our capacity to shape and control the course of our
world. Since an extraordinary catastrophe- following the criminal “Al-Aqsa
Flood” operation and the barbaric Israeli retaliation to it- is weighing down on
us in the Levant, it would be useful to revisit the two most significant events
we have witnessed in the past half-century: the Egyptian-Israeli Camp David
Accords of 1979, and the occupation and liberation of Iraq in 2003. Here, we can
assume that there is a foundational, albeit inverse, relationship between
current developments and how it was dealt with those two transformative events -
not in the sense that they transform a particular regime but that of worn-out
ways of life and of practicing politics. Let us suppose, for instance, that the
Arab League and the Arab public had rushed to support and embrace Egypt’s
position, providing these six reasons for this stance:First, our aversion to war
and commitment to peace and the need to foster it. We remember the defeat of
1967, the discouraging results of the 1973 war, and the outbreak of the Lebanese
civil war in 1975 following the Jordanian civil war in 1970; all of that was the
result of paramilitary build-up justified by the conflict with Israel. Second,
Palestinian self-government is guaranteed by the Camp David Accords, which pave
the way for electing an autonomous governing authority. We also welcome US
President Jimmy Carter’s appointment of Mr. Robert Schwarz Strauss as the
Personal Representative of the President to the Middle East Peace Negotiations.
Third, containing Iranian influence, which has become a threat to the region
since the revolution of this same year (1979) that has turned “exporting the
revolution” into a key objective and slogan. Indeed, quelling tensions and
building peace undermine the appeal of these perilous pursuits, as well as the
primitive notions and acquiescence to sectarian instincts that come with it.
Fourth, isolating the two Baathist regimes in Syria and Iraq. Both have insisted
on “bringing down Camp David” because they seek to perpetuate animosity and
polarization in the Levant, as they ensure a source of “nationalist legitimacy”
that provides a substitute for the constitutional and popular legitimacy they
lack. Fifth, allowing Lebanon to exit the cycle of violence whose manifestations
have varied and multiplied; the Palestinian resistance factions will be disarmed
and the Palestinian Liberation Organization could focus on building
self-governance in Palestine, and this will be followed by the disarmament of
the other Lebanese militias that had fought the PLO.
Finally, we are keen to avoid shaking up the relationship between Egypt and the
rest of the Arab world, as that would inevitably have grave consequences for
both parties. In 2003, meanwhile, the Arab League issued a statement expressing
a broad, general Arab opinion, no less historic than its stance in 1979. The
following is an excerpt from the 2003 statement: ‘‘What has happened is an
unwelcome occupation, but it is also a welcomed liberation. Iraq deserves to be
liberated after having suffered for so long at the hands of a tyrannical regime.
Occupation has been paired with liberation in many countries, including Japan,
whose mature approach gave rise to the democratic MacArthur Constitution and
fueled economic success that was called a ‘‘miracle’’. We believe that a
stronger Arab presence in Iraq would mitigate the negative repercussions of this
development, as well as limit unilateral American domination in Iraq and reduce
the potential ramifications of US ignorance of Iraq and the region, or perhaps
of ambitions that are not yet apparent. Arab states’ involvement would help
prevent a sectarian and ethnic cycle of vengeance from wreaking havoc on Iraq
after decades of repression and tension, and it would also support the
federalist experiment that Iraqis have chosen as the only alternative to
hyper-centralized and hyper-authoritarian rule. One outcome of this Arab
presence and support is that it will remove the threat of Iran exploiting Iraq’s
transitional phase to expand its influence at Iraq’s expense. It will also
prevent the Assad regime in Syria (which has been expelled from the League) from
exploiting the turbulence in Iraq by sending instruments of death to Baghdad,
along with the suicide bombers murdering Iraqi civilians whom the regime calls
“martyrs” and “resistance fighters.”
The success of this new experiment would probably shorten the lifespan of both
regimes, which have been withering away at an accelerating pace. No amount of
repression and brutality, as conspiratorial hysteria is pushed as far as it can,
can prevent this, especially since, for years now, they have not had any
opportunities to toy with the Palestinian cause.Ultimately, a democratic and
stable Iraq would be a tremendous net benefit for both Iraqis and Arabs, just as
the success and stability of Egypt’s peace policies have been. These two
historical developments broaden our channels of engagement with the world, make
it more likely that we will be influenced by all that is enlightening and
beneficial, and enhance the Arab world’s own capacity to yield influence
elsewhere.”
How the US has squandered its soft power
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/April 08, 2025
For decades, as a triumphant Second World War power and the wealthiest among
nations, the US created a semblance of equilibrium between its soft and hard
powers to extend its global influence. Its soft power, manifested through its
cultural and financial prowess, was used to create and preserve alliances,
especially during the Cold War. It reverted to hard power, its military, only
when direct threats to its national security or the security of its closest
allies appeared imminent.
America’s soft power was unrivaled in a polarized world. After President John
Kennedy created the US Agency for International Development in 1961, American
support for multifaceted humanitarian, developmental and cultural programs in
the developing world saved millions of lives. More importantly, it brought about
political gains that helped America secure its ranking as the world’s No. 1
superpower. Kennedy, defending the creation of USAID, said in 1962: “The people
who are opposed to aid should realize that this is a very powerful source of
strength for us. It permits us to exert influence for the maintenance of
freedom. If we were not so heavily involved, our voice would not speak with such
vigor.”
In recent years, USAID’s budget ranged between $40 billion and $60 billion
annually, less than 1 percent of the US’ annual budget. However, its influence
over and support of US foreign policy has been tremendous. USAID has been
involved in many projects across the developing world, supporting water, health,
education and environmental projects and pushing for democratic, economic and
political reforms. Hundreds of projects across the globe have been terminated
overnight. The fallout has been dramatic
But America’s hard power was not absent from this reality. The US has used its
mighty military globally. It has supported despots, removed democratically
elected governments and engaged in costly wars that have failed to serve
America’s national security interests. These wars have come at a hefty cost to
the US taxpayer.As a result of President Donald Trump’s second-term decisions,
the concept of America’s soft power is now disintegrating. USAID has been
canceled. Its budget has been slashed and few of its programs have been kept. No
one really knows if the agency will survive. Hundreds of projects across the
globe have been terminated overnight. The fallout has been dramatic.
The consequences of the end of USAID and other aid programs are yet to be known.
The administration’s policies now affect educational exchanges and scholarships,
cultural diplomacy programs, international broadcasting and media outreach,
economic aid and development programs, diplomatic efforts and public diplomacy
initiatives.
Some pundits believe that, despite America’s soft power initiatives, it has
failed to be recognized as a world leader and a superpower in a unipolar world,
while failing to provide a model for budding liberal democracies. Despite its
soft power, the US waged criminal wars on Iraq and Afghanistan and has supported
an apartheid regime in Israel. America’s post-9/11 wars resulted in the deaths
of millions. The “regime change” mantra of the neoconservatives only succeeded
in destabilizing most of the Middle East without resolving any of its problems,
which linger to this day. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has circumvented
America’s soft power by eliminating USAID while triggering a global trade war.
Both will undermine America’s closest and most vulnerable allies.
By imposing tariffs on some of America’s closest partners while suspending US
aid, the White House is wasting the country’s geopolitical influence. The
discussion over the tariffs is ongoing. No one knows how this latest move will
affect world trade, globalization and America’s influence worldwide.Such a major
departure from the established US foreign policy approach will change the
dynamics of global relations
Today, it is clear that many of America’s allies will suffer from its aid cuts
and tariffs. Such a major departure from the established US foreign policy
approach will change the dynamics of global relations. The loss of direct US aid
means that many countries will alter their policies as they seek alternatives.
If it happens, a trade war will polarize the world even further, giving new
superpowers like China the opportunity to fill the gap.
But more importantly, America’s withdrawal from the international stage means
that, as globalization falters, new regional economic coalitions will pick up
the mantle and try to replace the existing economic world order. That means
economic coalitions like BRICS and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
will try to fill the vacuum left by the US as a political, military and economic
leader. No one really knows how the US gambit will turn out. The attempt to
force the world into adopting a new trade deal looks desperate, as financial
markets continue to slide. Geopolitically, the US is wasting its soft power and
is about to lose it completely. Trump’s goal of restoring America as a main
global industrial hub appears elusive. Overall, the White House is giving up
America’s soft power, hoping to save the US economy. Few have discussed the
meager amount the US has invested to maintain such control. The cost of the US
relinquishing its leading role as a supporter of humanitarian and developmental
projects worldwide will be tremendous.
No other country can today replace America’s funding of hundreds of projects
aimed at containing global disease, stabilizing nascent democratic regimes and
supporting developmental projects across the planet. America’s loss of its soft
power will certainly ignite new global geopolitical crises. The US is not a
perfect model to be idolized, but the fact that it has helped millions of people
fight disease and other challenges means that its withdrawal will leave a
troubled world.
**Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator in Amman. X:
@plato010
Israel’s war on Gaza poised for dangerous new phase
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/April 08, 2025
Since Israel suddenly and unilaterally ended the ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza on
March 18, more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed there — and this tragic
figure is constantly rising. Schools and medical centers have also not been
spared by the bombardments and, as a consequence, the familiar scenes of
displaced Palestinians, most of whom have already been displaced multiple times,
have also returned. Israel’s decision to go back to war, and with such
intensity, raises the questions: why now and for what purpose? The answer to
both has more to do with Israel’s domestic politics and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s unrelenting quest for survival in power than his country’s security
or strategic interests. From the outset of the ceasefire deal back in January,
which was largely due to the encouragement of then-US President-elect Donald
Trump, there were deep concerns that the three-phase agreement would not last
beyond the first phase unless the mediators continued to pressurize the two
sides. In Israel’s case, it was mainly Washington that could do the persuading.
Despite some setbacks and hiccups during the six weeks of the first phase, both
sides fulfilled their main commitments, even if they did not always act in the
spirit of defusing tensions and building trust. The fighting stopped, which
saved many lives, humanitarian aid was allowed into Gaza, 33 of the Israeli and
foreign hostages held in Gaza returned home in exchange for the release of
nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners detained in Israeli jails, and many of the
displaced in Gaza returned to what survived of their homes in the north of the
Strip.
On the Israeli side, there has never been a genuine yearning to end the war. In
fact, the exact opposite is the case
A successful conclusion of the first phase could not guarantee moving on to the
second one, or even starting serious negotiations over it, without which the
release of the remaining 59 hostages still in Gaza could not be guaranteed and
the resumption of hostilities was just a matter of time. On the Israeli side,
there has never been a genuine yearning to end the war. In fact, the exact
opposite is the case. Its government set as its top priority the complete
elimination of Hamas before it would agree to end the war. And the fact that
this Islamist Palestinian movement is still playing a part in Palestinian
society and politics clearly demonstrates that this aim — set by the Israeli
government after the deadly attack of Oct. 7, 2023 — is unrealistic. Moreover,
should the remaining hostages be released by an agreement, this would also
contradict the government’s claim that only military pressure could achieve such
a result. Hamas might well want an end to the war, but it also knows that this
would not stop Israel from going after those who were involved in the Oct. 7
attack, and this time Hamas would lack the advantage of holding hostages. There
are also signs of growing anger among Palestinians who consider the group to be
as responsible as Israel for the current suffering. So, this might be the moment
for Palestinian society to hold it to account, as is also the case with Israeli
society with regard to its own government.
For a short while, the ceasefire held, despite the completion of the first phase
without agreement on the second. Nevertheless, the fragility of the country’s
domestic politics, together with Washington’s objectionable idea of emptying the
Gaza Strip of its Palestinian residents, has emboldened the far right in Israel,
including those in the governing coalition. They pressured Netanyahu to go back
to war so they could realize their war crime fantasy of permanently occupying a
Gaza without Palestinians and building Jewish settlements there. Meanwhile,
Netanyahu’s cynicism in abusing his position to remain in power indefinitely
reaches a new low with every passing week, as does his recklessness regarding
human lives, whether Palestinian or Israeli. Resuming the war has been a
lifeline for the stability of Netanyahu’s governing coalition. When he initially
agreed to the ceasefire deal, the religious ultranationalist faction in
government, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Otzma Yehudit party, left the
government, leaving it with a razor-thin majority in the Knesset. Meanwhile, the
religious ultranationalist party of Bezalel Smotrich, Religious Zionism, put
Netanyahu on notice, only agreeing to stay in government on condition that the
second phase never materializes.
The fragility of the country’s domestic politics has emboldened the far right in
Israel, including those in the governing coalition
By resuming the bombardment of Gaza, Netanyahu was immediately rewarded by the
return of Otzma Yehudit to the government, while Religious Zionism’s threat was
not tested. The great tragedy, of course, is that keeping Netanyahu in power and
pulling all possible tricks to make a mockery of his corruption trial and of the
rule of law generally resulted, in the first night of Israel’s return to war, in
more than 400 Palestinians killed. The numbers have kept rising since, with a
reported 322 children now killed. If, by now, we are no longer shocked by
Netanyahu and his coalition of right wingers’ complete disregard for Palestinian
lives, most Israelis cannot get their head around his utter indifference to the
lives of his own people, and in this case the hostages too. Netanyahu and his
political partners are insulting the intelligence of the Israeli public and
everyone else by claiming that military pressure will bring back the hostages.
If you want the truth, all you need to do is listen to Israeli Defense Minister
Israel Katz, who stated last week that Tel Aviv was looking for a major
expansion of the military operation in Gaza in order to seize large areas of
land that would be “incorporated into Israel’s security zones.” In his
statement, Katz said the operation would also involve a “large-scale evacuation
of Gaza’s population from combat zones.”Unless there is an intervention, first
and foremost by Washington, there is a real risk that the war in Gaza will enter
a new phase in which Israel makes the lives of the residents there utterly
impossible, believing that it can achieve the twin objectives of victory over
Hamas and the expulsion of Palestinians. However, the most likely outcome of
such an approach is a never-ending and costly war.
**Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House X: @YMekelberg
Quiet tensions threatening Israeli-Egyptian cold peace
Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy/Arab News/April 08, 2025
Since the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978, peace between Egypt and
Israel has resembled more of a strategic ceasefire than a warm partnership.
However, the ongoing war in Gaza has exposed real fractures that are now
pressing against the foundations of this long-standing peace. Relations between
Cairo and Tel Aviv have entered an unprecedented phase of strategic coldness,
with behind-the-scenes accusations exchanged over treaty violations and Israeli
claims that Egypt has been building a military infrastructure in Sinai that
exceeds what the peace agreement permits. Behind these allegations lies a
complex web of conflicting interests, pressures and national priorities. Israel
is demanding that Egypt dismantle the military infrastructure it has built in
Sinai over the past decade, claiming it is a direct violation of the military
annex of the Camp David treaty. Israeli sources say that Egypt has not only
increased its troop presence but is also building infrastructure that includes
airbases, fuel and ammunition depots, antitank fortifications and even tunnels
under the Suez Canal. Cairo, on the other hand, insists that all of this has
been done with prior coordination with Israel and solely for national security
reasons. But to understand this, one must first ask: why has Egypt increased its
military presence in Sinai? Over the past decade, Egypt has faced threats from
multiple fronts. In the northeast (Sinai), its military waged an open war
against terrorist organizations that relied on logistical support via tunnels
from Gaza. In the west (Libya), state collapse allowed armed groups to smuggle
large quantities of weapons across the border. In the south (Sudan), smuggling
networks and terrorist activities have continued along the border. And again in
the northeast, Egypt was forced to counter Hamas’ destabilizing efforts through
an extensive tunnel network connecting Gaza and Sinai. Israel is demanding that
Egypt dismantle the military infrastructure it has built in Sinai over the past
decade
In response to these threats, Egypt rebuilt its military posture along all its
borders. This included upgrading the Sidi Barrani airbase and establishing an
advanced naval base near the Libyan border, in addition to boosting its presence
in Sinai. These moves were not aimed at Israel, but rather at protecting
Egyptian national security from multiple directions. Militarily, Egypt’s
capabilities have grown significantly during President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s
tenure, especially in his second term. This includes Rafale fighter jets from
France, submarines and frigates from Germany, naval systems from Italy,
helicopter carriers from Russia and annual joint drills with European and
American forces.
But more important than the size of Egypt’s arsenal is how it is used. Cairo
frames these developments as tools to support its regional and diplomatic
influence — not offensive assets. President El-Sisi has repeatedly reaffirmed
Egypt’s full commitment to peace with Israel, most recently during last month’s
Arab League summit, where he called the treaty a “model for transforming war
into diplomatic partnership.”Israeli concerns operate on two levels.
Strategically, Israeli security hard-liners fear that permanent military
infrastructure in Sinai may become a future threat if political conditions
change. And politically and in the media sphere, many analysts believe that part
of Israel’s escalation is designed for international audiences — to deflect
attention from its alleged war crimes and mass displacement in Rafah. By
focusing on Egypt, Israel can portray itself as a committed treaty partner,
while shifting blame for violations onto Cairo. Cairo has responded with
measured political finesse, asserting that it has not violated the Camp David
treaty. On the contrary, Egypt says it is Israel that has crossed the line,
especially with its deployment of forces in the Philadelphi Corridor, which is a
direct violation of the agreement. Egypt has also been sidelined as a ceasefire
mediator and excluded from coordination regarding operations in southern Gaza.
Egypt understands that Israel is trying to distract it with secondary issues at
a highly sensitive time. Cairo, meanwhile, is working to prevent the forced
displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and is active diplomatically to
de-escalate the situation at the international level.
This is not an open crisis between Israel and Egypt, but is rather mutual
pressure beneath the surfacey. Could this tension spiral into a crisis that
threatens peace?
So far, there has been no indication that either side intends to abandon the
peace treaty. However, there are signs worth noting: Egypt has downgraded its
diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv to charge d’affaires and official Egyptian
statements criticizing Israeli actions in Gaza, the West Bank and Syria have
increased significantly. In short, no one wants the peace deal to collapse, but
the growing tension could send the relationship into a cycle of mutual suspicion
— especially if Israel continues to violate agreements while Egypt strengthens
its defenses, which it considers a sovereign right.
This is not an open crisis between Israel and Egypt, but is rather mutual
pressure beneath the surface. Israel wants to limit Egypt’s defensive capacity
east of the Suez Canal, while Cairo sees its national security as incompatible
with a conditional peace. Both sides recognize the value of the peace agreement,
but they are now testing its boundaries. The real question now is not whether
the peace will collapse, but whether it can survive without its rules being
redefined. The months ahead will provide the answer, amid a raging war in Gaza,
a rapidly shifting Middle East and alliances being quietly reshaped in the
shadows.
**Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy
A US victory over the Houthis will not be enough
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/April 08, 2025
For the past three weeks, US forces have been heavily bombing Houthi missile
systems, drones, air defenses, weapons depots, command centers, training sites
and the homes of militia leaders across several provinces, including Sanaa. If
the operations continue with this level of focus and eliminate the remaining
Houthi military capabilities, will that end their existence? And what would
happen next? In Syria, after Bashar Assad’s forces were weakened, Hayat Tahrir
Al-Sham quickly took advantage of the domestic and regional situation, advanced
nearly 400 km from Idlib and Aleppo to Damascus and toppled the regime. In
Lebanon, Israel destroyed Hezbollah’s capabilities and eliminated its leaders.
The Lebanese army filled the vacuum, taking control of highways, the airport and
all vital infrastructure. A president was elected and a government was formed.
In Yemen, the Houthis’ capabilities are being destroyed and they may be
collapsing, but no alternative has yet emerged. The military campaign appears
effective and the Houthis will likely seek a deal with Washington to save what
remains of their presence. However, air and naval strikes alone will not be
enough to eliminate them. Everyone is waiting for an armed Yemeni force to seize
the capital, Sanaa. Without that, once the fighting stops, the Iranian-backed
militia could regroup in the capital and retain control over northern Yemen.
Groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Taliban — and other regional
religious militias — do not simply vanish after military defeat. They can
return, recruit youths, raise funds, forge alliances and exploit regional and
international contradictions.
The Houthis’ capabilities are being destroyed and they may be collapsing, but no
alternative has yet emerged
The significance of US military action lies in it coming after an international
consensus to criminalize the Houthis’ actions. But the Americans seek only two
goals from this war: destroying the Houthis’ military capabilities that threaten
global navigation and forcing the militia to pledge to stop attacking passing
ships. The Houthis will cease to be a global problem — but remain a problem for
the Yemeni people and the region.
With the Houthis militarily besieged, and to ensure the opportunity is not
wasted, a political solution must follow to end the broader Yemen conflict — not
just the maritime crisis. Any political resolution will be new and will not
include the Houthis’ past demands prior to the destruction of their
capabilities. They once aimed to control the government and its sovereign
ministries, including security and the military. Those old terms no longer fit
today’s urgent reality. Washington has been continuing its military campaign
since the middle of last month, waiting for the Houthis to raise the white flag
and commit to not threatening US and other ships passing through the Bab Al-Mandab
Strait. I believe we are not far from that scenario. The Houthis will likely
claim they halted attacks as part of resolving the Gaza crisis, while in reality
it will be due to the destruction of their capabilities in Yemen.
If the Houthis continue to rule Sanaa, it will be a victory for them — since
Assad’s regime has fallen, Hezbollah is near collapse and Hamas is negotiating
the end of its rule in Gaza.
A political solution must follow to end the broader Yemen conflict — not just
the maritime crisis. The military campaign can help change the situation —
either completely by eliminating the Houthis or by pushing them to relinquish
most of their power. But this will not happen without a ground force. Is there
an armed Yemeni force, acceptable both domestically and internationally, that
can move toward the center to capitalize on the Houthis’ weakness and preempt
the potential vacuum and its associated risks?
The alternative to the Houthis in this case is not a military coup or replacing
one militia with another, but rather a force that defeats the Houthis and
supports a political solution based on prior negotiations. Yemenis had made
considerable progress toward consensus until the Houthis seized power and
disrupted the political process in late 2014. Before that, Yemenis had engaged
in significant dialogue and agreed on a roadmap with a constitution and
institutions, as well as a transitional phase.
Even after the Houthis’ takeover, legitimacy was preserved as an entity —
depriving the militia of international recognition. To this day, it safeguards
Yemen’s legal international standing, with its own government, ministries,
embassies, national currency and central bank. It can continue to serve as an
umbrella under which war and chaos end and issues are resolved. Today’s US
military assault on the Houthi militia represents a rare opportunity for change
in Yemen — one that may not come again for many years.
**Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former
general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq
Al-Awsat