English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 26/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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https://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2025/english.January26.25.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to Nicodemus: For God so loved the world that he gave his only Son,
so that everyone who believes in him may not perish but may have eternal life.
John 03/03-21: There was a man of the Pharisees named Nicodemus,
a ruler of the Jews. 2 The same came to Jesus by night and said unto Him,
“Rabbi, we know that thou art a teacher come from God; for no man can do these
miracles that thou doest, unless God be with him.”Jesus answered and said unto
him, "‘Very truly, I tell you, we speak of what we know and testify to what we
have seen; yet you do not receive our testimony. If I have told you about
earthly things and you do not believe, how can you believe if I tell you about
heavenly things? No one has ascended into heaven except the one who descended
from heaven, the Son of Man. And just as Moses lifted up the serpent in the
wilderness, so must the Son of Man be lifted up, that whoever believes in him
may have eternal life. ‘For God so loved the world that he gave his only Son, so
that everyone who believes in him may not perish but may have eternal life.
‘Indeed, God did not send the Son into the world to condemn the world, but in
order that the world might be saved through him. Those who believe in him are
not condemned; but those who do not believe are condemned already, because they
have not believed in the name of the only Son of God. And this is the judgement,
that the light has come into the world, and people loved darkness rather than
light because their deeds were evil. For all who do evil hate the light and do
not come to the light, so that their deeds may not be exposed. But those who do
what is true come to the light, so that it may be clearly seen that their deeds
have been done in God.’"
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 25-26/2025
The Required Government/Etienne Sakr (Abu Arz) – Official
Website/January 25, 2025
Salomonic Judgment/Charles Elias Chartouni/Face Book/January 25, 2025
A Question for the Leaders of the Three Christian Parties and Their Close Inner
Circles/Père Maroun Sayegh Facebook/January 25, 2025
Israel delays withdrawal from Lebanon’s southern border
Presidents Aoun and Macron Call for Implementation of Ceasefire Agreement
Trump administration wants more time for Israel to pull troops out of Lebanon
Lebanese Army blames Israel for delay in deploying troops in south
UAE announces reopening of embassy in Beirut
France in communication to maintain Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, Lebanese
statement citing Macron says
Numbers & FiguresFigure of the Week: 800,000 Vehicles in Lebanon Without
Mandatory Insurance
Israeli Army Advances in South Lebanon as Ceasefire Agreement Ends
Saudi Diplomat Visits Lebanon, Signals Renewal of Regional Relations/Rayan Chami/This
is Beirut/January 25/2025
What Is Left of Hezbollah's Arsenal?/Élie-Joe Kamel/This is Beirut/January
25/2025
Lebanese-Saudi Economic Ties: A Fresh Start?/Christiane Tager/This Is
Beirut/January 25/2025
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 25-26/2025
US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation
continues
Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages?
Israel blocks Gazans’ return to territory’s north unless civilian woman hostage
freed
Crowds cheer, families hug as Palestinian prisoners released
White House makes 2,000-pound bombs available to Israel, undoing Biden’s
US freezes almost all aid except for Israel, Egypt arms
Syria’s al-Hol camp readies first return of Syrian detainees, no details on
destinations
Nearly 30 percent of Syrians want to go home, up from almost zero, UN refugee
chief says
Turkiye says will fight terror after death of Iraqi border guards
US Senate confirms former Fox News co-host as Pentagon chief
Hamas frees 4 female Israeli soldiers as part of the Gaza ceasefire
Italian Prime Minister Meloni begins official visit to Saudi Arabia
Yemen’s Houthis release 153 war detainees, Red Cross says
67 killed in drone attack on hospital in Sudan’s Darfur
CIA now says COVID-19 ‘more likely’ to have come from lab
Pope Francis warns of ‘fanaticism, hatred’ in social media
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 25-26/2025
Negotiating with Iran on New 'Deal' Is Insane Waste of Time. Take Out
Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program Now!/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone
Institute./January 25, 2025
Growth is key to closing the ‘Africa Gap/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 25,
2025
The Turkish Wolf Expands Its Regional Dominance/Malo Pinatel/This is
Beirut/January 25/2025
Trump seizes the initiative with ultimatum on Ukraine/Luke Coffey/Arab
News/January 25, 2025
The guns have fallen silent in Gaza — but for how long?/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
News/January 25, 2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 25-26/2025
The Required Government
Etienne Sakr
(Abu Arz) – Official Website/January 25, 2025
(Free translation by: Elias Bejjani)
The honorable Lebanese people categorically reject that the new government of
this era resembles the previous traditional governments, which burdened the
country and squandered its resources. They also reject the inclusion of the same
discredited figures, whose corruption and chronic failures led the people of
Lebanon to reject and expel them.
There is no place for a government designed to satisfy the heads of sects and
political parties at the expense of Lebanon’s interests and the well-being of
its citizens.
The Lebanese aspire to a truly national government—one composed of new faces
distinguished by scientific expertise, moral integrity, and a clear reformist
vision. Only such a government can rise to the challenges ahead and restore the
confidence of both citizens and the international community.
Any violation of these conditions would not only signal the failure of this
era’s progress but also constitute a betrayal of the Lebanese people's hopes. It
would hollow out the principles outlined in the oath speech, which was meant to
serve as a roadmap for reform and change.
The Lebanese people will not stand idly by in the face of any attempt to
circumvent their legitimate demands to build a modern state that ensures peace
and stability. They are ready to continue their struggle to restore the Lebanon
they deserve—a Lebanon of ambition and prosperity, not one of humiliation and
disgrace.
At Your Service, Beloved Lebanon.
Salomonic Judgment
Charles Elias Chartouni/Face Book/January
25, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139422/
The truce agreement is drawing to its end and
nothing has been achieved on the Lebanese side: waffling on disarmament, tracing
the borderlines, and preparing the ground for long term strategic commitments.
The incendiary rhetoric of Hezbollah and its ideological humbug are back to the
foreground at a time when the newly established authorities are still dithering
about their strategic choices, coaxing the Hezbollah and repeating the
anti-Israeli mantra which have destroyed Lebanese statehood throughout the last
six decades. The political gyrations are not of good omen since they reflect the
inability of Lebanon to reinstate itself as an independent country and to do
away with the structural and situational constraints that hobble its
sovereignty. We are dealing with inhibitions that have undermined the legitimacy
and the objectivity of working statehood. The inability to form a cabinet far
from being an incidental difficulty, unveils the structural impediments and the
complicity of the reigning oligarchy and its ability to thwart the changing
dynamics and the pliability of the incoming actors to challenge the foreclosures
set by the Shiite power equation.
A Question for the Leaders of the Three Christian Parties and Their Close Inner
Circles
Père Maroun Sayegh Facebook/January
25, 2025
(Free Translation by: Elias Bejjani)
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139432/
A question to the leaders of the three Christian parties and their close inner
circles:
Do you consult your grassroots supporters when making decisions, particularly on
national issues that impact their lives, shape their future, and reflect their
aspirations and opinions?
I highly doubt it, because what I see in posts and comments indicates a clear
disregard for their voices. In essence, you are saying, "Don’t think; we’ll do
the thinking for you."
They are calling for accountability for those who brought the country to its
current state, yet you extend your hands to these very same individuals,
offering them rescue under the banner of "Let bygones be bygones."
They demand that you refrain from sharing power with the corrupt and the
spoilers in any government, yet you rush to divide the portfolios and secure
your shares.
They are asking for a genuine reevaluation of the ruling system, with proposals
such as federalism, but instead, you appease others by merely speaking of
administrative decentralization.
And you, esteemed leaders, must bring an end to the cult of personality worship.
On a personal level, you do not represent me. While I may have no influence in
the political equation, I have every right to resist your direction and awaken
your people.
Peace to all the Lebanese.
Israel delays withdrawal from
Lebanon’s southern border
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/January 25,
2025
BEIRUT: Lebanese Army Command on Saturday urged residents of southern border
villages to avoid returning to their homes due to mines and other explosives
left by Israeli forces. The “procrastination in the withdrawal” of Israeli
forces from the south has complicated the army’s deployment to the area, it
said.
The 60-day period for the full withdrawal of the Israeli forces from the
southern border area ends on Sunday. The deadline was stipulated in a ceasefire
agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, which invaded the Lebanese southern
border area on Oct. 1. Residents vowed on Saturday to return to their villages,
despite an Israeli decision to postpone the withdrawal of its forces. Israel
blamed the Lebanese state for failing to “fully enforce” the agreement, and
threatened to “retaliate with a military escalation against any Hezbollah
response” to the delay. The Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement
that the gradual withdrawal will continue, “in full coordination with the US
administration.”
Lebanon’s new leadership views the Israeli withdrawal as a priority.
Army Command called on citizens to “remain responsible and adhere to its
directives and the instructions of the deployed military units, to preserve
their safety.”President Joseph Aoun received a phone call from French President
Emmanuel Macron on Saturday, his media office said. “Macron went over the
developments in southern Lebanon, the efforts to control escalation, and the
appropriate solutions to ensure the implementation of the ceasefire agreement,
and the measures to defuse the situation,” a statement added. The French
president told his Lebanese counterpart that he is holding talks to maintain the
ceasefire and complete the implementation of the agreement. Aoun highlighted the
need to pressure Israel into implementing the provisions of the deal. This would
put end to its successive violations, notably the destruction of villages near
the southern border and the leveling of lands, which will hinder the return of
residents, Aoun said. Ghassan Hasbani, a member of the Lebanese Forces
parliamentary bloc, said: “The renewal of war is not the current concern, but
rather the prolonged presence of the Israeli army in the south. “It is Hezbollah
that brought the Israeli army into Lebanon, and what will drive it out is
adherence to the terms of the ceasefire agreement and international pressure,”
he added. Hasbani spoke of “deliberate or inadvertent tardiness in implementing
the ceasefire agreement, whether through the delay in forming the monitoring
committee or Hezbollah’s failure to seriously hand over its weapons and
dismantle its infrastructure. “We are not justifying the Israeli army’s
continued presence in the south but have called for its withdrawal from the
first day. We would have preferred to avoid causing its entry in the first
place,” he said. The Israeli army continued its violations of the ceasefire
agreement on Saturday in the eastern sector of the border. Earth mounds were
raised to prevent citizens from advancing toward the area where Israeli forces
are carrying out detonations and leveling additional structures and homes. The
Israeli measures included the closure of main and secondary roads leading to the
town of Kfar Kila from the towns of Burj Al-Muluk and Deir Mimas. Additionally,
the northern entrance to the town of Yaroun was bulldozed, and the roads and
secondary intersections leading to the villages of Bani Hayyan, Talloussah,
Houla and Aitaroun were plowed. Israeli media reported: “The Israeli army is on
high alert, with the northern command, air forces, and operations division of
the general staff preparing for a range of scenarios should Hezbollah and
civilians attempt to return to their homes on Sunday, and challenge the Israeli
military.”Israeli jets conducted aerial incursions over the southern region,
flying at medium altitude. Residents of southern Lebanese border villages have
continuously been warned by Israel to avoid returning to their homes.
Several residents in the south received phone calls from international numbers,
cautioning them to avoid traveling to the frontline villages on Sunday and
urging them to stay away from the southern region. Military units of the
Lebanese Army continued engineering surveys, road clearing and the handling of
unexploded ordnance in the western and central sectors. Army Command said it is
“closely monitoring the operational situation, particularly regarding the
violations of the agreement and assaults on Lebanon’s sovereignty, in addition
to the destruction of infrastructure and the demolition, and burning of homes in
the border villages by the Israeli enemy.”A team from the Lebanese Red Cross and
Lebanese Civil Defense continued to search for the bodies of Hezbollah fighters
in the towns of Al-Jabain and Shihin.
The Israeli army raised an earthen berm in the middle of the road leading to the
town of Qantara in the Marjeyoun district.
A citizen of the town was shot in the hand by Israeli forces and taken to
hospital.
UNIFIL forces delivered a message to the commander of the Southern Litani sector
in the Lebanese Army, Brig. Gen. Edgar Lawandos, pledging to provide support. In
an unprecedented move concerning Palestinian camps, Lebanese Army Command
announced the takeover of “military centers previously occupied by Palestinian
organizations inside Lebanese territory.”The army conducted surprise raids at
the entrance of the Burj Al-Barajneh camp in the southern suburbs of Beirut and
proceeded to remove unauthorized commercial structures. Forces also seized a
former center of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and two
former centers of the Fatah Al-Intifada organization, near the Beddawi refugee
camp in Tripoli. The army also seized weapons and ammunition, in addition to
military equipment and surveillance devices. It is “in accordance with the
ceasefire agreement, which stipulates the dismantling of all illegal military
installations, starting from south of the Litani,” a statement said. “These
missions are part of the framework for maintaining security and stability, and
extending the authority of the state across various regions of Lebanon.”Lebanese
army units took control of all military points at the entrances of the Beddawi
camp since early morning, amid a significant deployment of troops in the area.
Presidents Aoun and Macron Call for Implementation of
Ceasefire Agreement
This is Beirut/January 25/2025
In the run-up to the January 27 deadline for Israeli forces to complete their
withdrawal from southern Lebanon, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement that
came into force on November 27, the President of the Republic, General Joseph
Aoun, received a call from French President Emmanuel Macron. They discussed
developments in the situation in southern Lebanon and efforts to contain any
escalation, as well as appropriate solutions to ensure implementation of the
ceasefire agreement. The French president explained that he was establishing
contacts to maintain the ceasefire and complete implementation of the agreement.
President Aoun stressed to his French counterpart the need to compel Israel to
respect the provisions of the agreement in order to preserve stability in
southern Lebanon and put an end to its successive violations, notably the
destruction of villages adjacent to the border, which will hinder the
inhabitants’ return to their homes.
Trump administration wants more time for Israel to pull troops out of Lebanon
Associated Press/January 25/2025
The Trump administration said it wants to give Israel a little more time to pull
its troops out of Lebanon, just two days before a withdrawal deadline under a
ceasefire deal with Hezbollah. “A short, temporary ceasefire extension is
urgently needed” in Lebanon, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Brian
Hughes said in a statement Friday. Israel was supposed to withdraw all its
forces from southern Lebanon by Sunday. The 60-day ceasefire deal in late
November halted the Israel-Hezbollah war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu suggested Friday that Israeli forces might still be in Lebanon when
the deadline comes. He said the Lebanese government hasn’t yet “fully enforced”
the agreement, an apparent reference to the deployment of Lebanese Army troops
to prevent Hezbollah returning to the border area. The Lebanese government has
said that it can’t deploy its force until Israeli troops pull out. Hezbollah has
warned that it could resume fighting if Israel doesn’t withdraw. “President
Trump is committed to ensuring Israeli citizens can safely return to their homes
in northern Israel, while also supporting President Aoun and the new Lebanese
government. All parties share the goal of ensuring Hezbollah does not have the
ability to threaten the Lebanese people or their neighbors,” Hughes said. He
said the U.S. is “pleased that the IDF (Israeli army) has started the withdrawal
from the central regions.”
Lebanese Army blames Israel for delay in deploying troops
in south
Associated Press/January 25/2025
The Lebanese Army on Saturday said it has been unable to deploy its forces
throughout southern Lebanon as laid out in a ceasefire agreement that halted the
Israel-Hezbollah war because of Israel’s “procrastination in withdrawal” from
the area. Under the deal reached in November, Israel is supposed to complete its
withdrawal from Lebanon by Sunday, after which the Lebanese armed forces would
patrol the buffer zone in southern Lebanon alongside U.N. peacekeepers to
prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a military presence there.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested Friday that Israel might not
withdraw by the deadline, and Washington appears prepared to push for an
extension. Netanyahu said the Lebanese government hasn’t yet “fully enforced”
the agreement, an apparent reference to the deployment of Lebanese troops.
The Lebanese Army statement said “procrastination in the withdrawal by the
Israeli enemy complicates the army’s deployment mission.” It said it “maintains
readiness to complete its deployment immediately after the Israeli enemy
withdraws.” It called on displaced Lebanese not to return to their areas until
they receive instructions, citing the danger of landmines and explosives. Some
112,000 Lebanese remain displaced. There have been calls for protests on Sunday
if Israel does not fully withdraw.
UAE announces reopening of embassy in Beirut
Agence France Presse/January 25/2025
The United Arab Emirates had announced that it reopened its embassy in Lebanon,
state media reported, years after it was shut down in solidarity with Saudi
Arabia. The Emirati embassy in Beirut "has officially resumed diplomatic
activities," state news agency WAM said. "The reopening of the embassy
represents an important step in advancing bilateral cooperation between the two
countries," WAM cited foreign ministry undersecretary Omar Obaid al-Shamsi as
saying. The UAE, alongside several other Gulf states, recalled its diplomats
from Lebanon in October 2021 in "solidarity" with Riyadh over a Lebanese
minister's criticism of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen. Relations
between the UAE and Lebanon had deteriorated for years over the influence of
Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. In early January, Lebanon named its former
army chief Joseph Aoun as its new president, ending years of deadlock after
Hezbollah's leadership was dealt a major blow by its war with Israel. UAE
President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan called Aoun to congratulate him on
the presidency, saying he hoped "to work together for the mutual benefit and
prosperity of both nations and their peoples."
France in communication to maintain Hezbollah-Israel
ceasefire, Lebanese statement citing Macron says
Reuters/January 25, 2025
CAIRO: French President Emmanuel Macron told his new Lebanese counterpart Joseph
Aoun in a phone call that he is in communication to maintain the ceasefire
between Hezbollah and Israel, according to a statement by the Lebanese
President’s office on X. Aoun asked Macron to oblige Israel to implement the
agreement to preserve stability. The phone call comes after the Israeli army on
Saturday warned residents of dozens of Lebanese villages near the border against
returning until further notice, a day after Israel said its forces would remain
in south Lebanon beyond a Sunday deadline for their departure under the
US-brokered ceasefire that ended last year’s war.
Numbers & FiguresFigure of the Week: 800,000 Vehicles in
Lebanon Without Mandatory Insurance
Liliane Mokbel and Abd Farchoukh/This Is Beirut/January 25/2025
In 2024, out of the 2,000,000 vehicles in Lebanon's automotive fleet, 800,000
are not registered with the Vehicle Registration Department and, as a result,
lack mandatory auto liability insurance. This means there is roughly one car for
every two residents, in a country where public transportation is virtually
non-existent. The mandatory third-party liability insurance, which covers bodily
injury to others, was introduced in January 2003.
Israeli Army Advances in South Lebanon as Ceasefire
Agreement Ends
This is Beirut/January 25/2025
As the 60-day ceasefire agreement reaches its conclusion, the Israeli army has
advanced in several areas of southern Lebanon, despite the agreement’s
stipulation for a full withdrawal. Early reports indicate incursions in more
than five locations, including Markaba-Tallouseh, Hula-Wadi slouki, and the
heights of Kfarchouba. A reinforced Israeli force, supported by bulldozers and
Merkava tanks, moved towards Wadi Sabia in Kfarchouba, conducting combing
operations and a significant explosion. Military vehicles also blocked the Bani
Hayyan road, further hindering access. The Israeli army reportedly contacted
displaced residents of border areas, warning them against returning to their
villages. In response, the Lebanese army has intensified its deployment south of
the Litani River, working to reinforce its presence under the ceasefire
agreement. Municipalities in the western and central sectors have urged
residents to delay their return until road clearing and safety measures are
completed. The Army Command issued a statement cautioning citizens against
heading to southern border areas due to the risk of landmines and unexploded
ordnance left behind. “Military units are conducting engineering surveys,
clearing roads, and closely monitoring ongoing breaches of the agreement, which
include violations of sovereignty and infrastructure destruction,” the statement
read.The army also highlighted delays in its deployment caused by the Israeli
forces’ stalling tactics but affirmed its readiness to proceed once the
withdrawal is complete. Coordination with UNIFIL and other international bodies
continues to ensure safety and adherence to the agreement. The Lebanese army
also took control of military checkpoints at the entrances to Beddawi Camp,
previously managed by Palestinian factions. This move is part of efforts to
dismantle unauthorized military structures as outlined in the ceasefire
agreement. Separately, the Army Command announced it would detonate unexploded
ordnance in Qlayaa, Marjayoun, and the outskirts of Taybeh, Baalbek, on January
25 between 10:30 AM and 6:00 PM, urging residents to exercise caution in these
areas.
Saudi Diplomat Visits Lebanon, Signals Renewal of Regional Relations
Rayan Chami/This is Beirut/January
25/2025
In a significant diplomatic move, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al
Saud concluded his visit to Baabda, where he met with newly elected President
Joseph Aoun. This visit marks a historic moment, as it is the first time in 15
years that a high-ranking Saudi diplomat has visited Beirut.
Strengthening Ties with Lebanon
During his visit, Minister bin Farhan reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s unwavering
support for President Aoun and underscored the importance of strengthening ties
between the two nations. The discussions focused on enhancing political,
economic, and security cooperation, signaling a renewed commitment to Lebanon’s
stability and future. This visit is a clear reflection of Saudi Arabia’s efforts
to rebuild Lebanon’s relations with key Arab states, especially as the country
faces significant political and economic challenges. In addition to meeting
President Aoun, Minister bin Farhan held discussions with Prime
Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and caretaker
Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
What the Visit Represents
Prince Faisal's visit to Beirut is widely seen as a diplomatic gesture aimed at
signaling that Saudi Arabia is keen to rebuild and strengthen its ties with
Lebanon. Riyadh’s re-engagement may also encourage other Arab nations to take a
more active role in Lebanon’s recovery process. Observers view the visit as a
potential turning point in relations, reinforcing Saudi Arabia’s position as a
key player in regional geopolitics. Political analyst and Middle East expert
Karim Sader put the visit in a broader regional context: “With the weakening of
Iranian influence in Lebanon and the broader Middle East, many regional actors
are now looking to fill the vacuum left by Tehran’s diminishing role.” He
continued, “It is only natural for Saudi Arabia, eager to assert its regional
leadership, to reassert its influence in Lebanon, a country where it has
historically played a significant role, especially with the 1990 Taif Accords
that helped bring an end to the Lebanese Civil War.”
A Complex Rivalry and Saudi Engagement
Sader also noted that Saudi Arabia’s renewed engagement in Lebanon is partly
driven by the growing competition between Sunni powers in the region. “With the
Muslim Brotherhood gaining strength, backed by Turkey and Qatar, and the rivalry
with the UAE, Sunni regional players are competing for influence, and Lebanon is
an important battleground in this contest,” he explained. In this context, Saudi
Arabia's efforts to rebuild Lebanon’s Sunni political establishment—largely
weakened after the decline of the Hariri political dynasty—take on significant
importance. This move is seen as part of a broader regional competition for
leadership in the Arab world. While immediate results from this visit are
unlikely, it represents an important step toward rebuilding trust and
cooperation. As Sader pointed out, “This re-engagement could be very beneficial
for Lebanon, particularly if it results in economic benefits from Saudi Arabia’s
vast financial resources.” However, he also cautioned that Riyadh is likely to
proceed carefully, demanding tangible reforms from Lebanon before offering
substantial financial support.
Prince Faisal: A Seasoned Diplomat
Prince Faisal bin Farhan, who has served as Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister
since 2019, is a prominent figure in shaping the kingdom’s evolving foreign
policy. His tenure has been marked by a pragmatic approach, with a focus on
economic diversification and modernization, in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision
2030.
Born in 1974, Prince Faisal studied management and international politics,
laying the foundation for a distinguished career. Before becoming foreign
minister, he served as Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Germany and held key
advisory roles within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. His extensive experience
in navigating complex international relations has earned him respect as a
trusted figure in handling sensitive diplomatic matters.
What Lebanon Hopes to Gain
For Lebanon, this visit brings a glimmer of hope amid the country’s ongoing
crises. Lebanon’s dire economic situation, compounded by political deadlock and
the aftermath of recent conflicts, has left the nation in urgent need of
international support. Saudi Arabia’s involvement could provide vital
opportunities for aid, investment, and collaboration on key reforms. Sader
emphasized the stakes of this renewed relationship: “With the weakening of the
Shiite axis, Saudi Arabia’s kingdom under MBS wants to reassert its position in
Lebanon and across the Levant.”While the visit’s symbolic importance is
undeniable, Lebanon’s path to recovery will ultimately depend on concrete
financial assistance and political backing. Riyadh’s cautious approach
highlights the delicate balancing act between providing aid and ensuring that
Lebanon’s political system undergoes the necessary reforms to secure its future.
What Is Left of Hezbollah's Arsenal?
Élie-Joe Kamel/This is Beirut/January 25/2025
With only two days remaining until the 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and
Israel expires, two questions arise: What is left of the arsenal of the
pro-Iranian group, which was supposed to be dismantled during this period? And
does Hezbollah still have the capacity to carry out operations against the
Israeli Army? What is indisputable is that the exact size of Hezbollah’s arsenal
and the number of its fighters have always been shrouded in uncertainty. The
group’s non-state status, coupled with its strict secrecy, prevents the
establishment of any reliable figures in this regard.Israel announced on Friday
that the gradual withdrawal of its troops from southern Lebanon would “continue”
beyond the 60-day timeframe outlined in the ceasefire agreement, set to expire
this Sunday. Israel justified its decision by asserting that Lebanon had not
“fully” met its commitments.
For their part, the Lebanese authorities have not yet provided official details
on the progress of the Lebanese Army’s deployment in southern Lebanon or the
number of illegal military sites dismantled in the region.
Several Factors to Consider
However, assessing Hezbollah's capabilities goes beyond evaluating its remaining
weapons. “In addition to its arsenal, it is crucial to determine whether the
group can resupply, rebuild its stockpiles, secure the necessary funding, and
reorganize in terms of human resources—essentially replacing the dead and
wounded with recruits. It is also important to consider the opportunities for
returning to combat while factoring in the current regional and global political
landscape,” retired General Khalil Helou said in an interview with This is
Beirut.
Regarding Hezbollah's arsenal, Helou stresses that it is “virtually impossible
to know how many missiles the group had before the war” and points out that “the
figures reported by different sources are contradictory.” “Western sources
mentioned 50,000 missiles, while Hezbollah claimed 150,000, and during the war,
an Iranian minister cited a figure of 1 million missiles,” he adds. From a
purely mathematical perspective, though one that must be approached “with
caution,” Helou estimates that “during the 14 months of the war, Hezbollah fired
an average of about 100 missiles per day, totaling approximately 40,000
missiles. The Israelis, for their part, claim to have destroyed between 70 and
80% of Hezbollah’s missile stockpile. If we rely on Hezbollah’s figure of
150,000, and subtract the 40,000 missiles fired and those destroyed by the
Israelis, it suggests that at least between 20,000 and 30,000 missiles remain in
their possession.”
An Increasingly Difficult Resupply
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has undeniably had a significant impact on
the resupply of the pro-Iranian militia, which previously relied on shipments
through Syrian ports and airports. “Today, although Hezbollah may resort to
certain clandestine methods, and despite the porous nature of the
Lebanese-Syrian border, it is nearly impossible for them to resupply as they did
before, especially since several attempts to transport weapons into Lebanon have
been intercepted by the new Syrian authorities,” stresses General Helou.
He further asserts that “it will take years for Hezbollah to rebuild its forces
if it continues to pursue the same strategy and objectives.”
It is also worth noting that Hezbollah had announced its plan to locally produce
its own weapons, a claim confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
during his address to the UN General Assembly last September.
In this context, Helou explains that “in the past, the Iranians supplied
Hezbollah with materials necessary to convert Fateh 110 inertial missiles into
Zalzal smart missiles with triple guidance. Hamas also produced its own
explosives while Gaza was under siege.”
However, replicating the same methods today has become significantly more
difficult. Helou notes that “the Iranians and Hezbollah had previously engaged
in negotiations with Arab clans in Sinai to facilitate arms deliveries to Hamas.
Their counterparts, nomadic Arab clans, are now dispersed across vast desert
regions in Syria and Iraq, areas not controlled by any party. While Iranian
militias could attempt to work with these clans, the absence of the Syrian
regime and the presence of Israeli surveillance have made resupply much more
challenging,” he estimates.
Structure Reorganization
On the other hand, “reorganizing the group’s structure and training both
existing personnel and new recruits will no longer be as straightforward as it
once was, given the heightened Israeli surveillance, although it remains
possible,” observes the general.
Additionally, Hezbollah “is certainly not eager to initiate a new war” with
Israel, which would be even more disastrous for the group. “As a result, it will
seek to learn from past experiences and adopt new military tactics,” he
suggests, adding that “Hezbollah will likely attempt to buy time to rebuild,
primarily through political and social maneuvers, as well as internal
blockages.”
Unfavorable Regional Political Context
The current regional and global context is unfavorable to the Iranian axis. US
President “Donald Trump remains steadfast in his opposition to the Islamic
Republic. The Europeans, bogged down in the war in Ukraine, are focused on
securing stability in Lebanon and Syria to manage migration flows. Similarly,
the Gulf States are determined to prevent any potential resurgence of ISIS
(Islamic State) in Syria and the region,” he continues. According to Helou,
three possible scenarios could unfold: A potential US-Iran agreement, in which
Tehran would consent to disarming its proxies; the remaining Israeli presence in
southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah might resort to periodic symbolic strikes
while buying time; and finally, the option of exerting maximum pressure that
could involve a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In this scenario,
the Lebanese front could flare up even more fiercely.
However, General Helou dismisses any likelihood that Tehran would agree to
disarm the militias it funds across the region.
Hezbollah and the Government
In an interview with This is Beirut, Riad Kahwaji, a Middle East security and
defense analyst based in Dubai, and director of the Middle East and Gulf
Military Analysis Institute (Inegma), emphasizes that Hezbollah’s arms have no
legitimate basis, especially given that they “have neither protected Lebanon nor
deterred Israel,” two arguments the pro-Iranian group frequently uses to justify
its illegal arsenal. Kahwaji suggests that Hezbollah is currently focused on
preserving its remaining military capabilities “while awaiting regional shifts
that could allow it to replenish its stocks, with funding from Iran.” In pursuit
of this, the pro-Iranian party is working to strengthen its position within the
new Cabinet, aiming to safeguard its weapons, he estimates. “Given the profound
changes in Lebanon and the region, the rules of the game have shifted. The
Lebanese State, with its new leadership, along with other Shiite factions, must
persuade Hezbollah to recognize and accept this new reality,” stresses Kahwaji.
He argues that “conditions must be placed on Hezbollah’s participation in the
new government, including a commitment to implement Resolution 1701 and the
ceasefire agreement in both the south and north of the Litani River,” thus
covering all of Lebanon. He concludes, “Allowing Hezbollah to use its
participation in the Lebanese State to rebuild its autonomous entity, thus
advancing an external and ideological agenda, is no longer acceptable, either
domestically or internationally.
Lebanese-Saudi Economic
Ties: A Fresh Start?
Christiane Tager/This Is Beirut/January 25/2025
Trade between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia once flourished, with annual exports
surpassing $800 million and imports nearing $1.3 billion. However, political
tensions have significantly reduced bilateral exchanges, leading to a dramatic
drop in trade and substantial revenue losses for Lebanon. With the election of
General Joseph Aoun as President, could this signal a fresh start in their
economic relations? Saudi Arabia has traditionally been a key economic partner
for Lebanon. Before the 2021 decline in relations, largely driven by the
Hezbollah issue, Lebanese exports to the Kingdom were substantial, particularly
in agriculture, food products, textiles, and handicrafts. These exports were a
vital source of foreign currency for Lebanon's economy. Following recent
positive developments in Lebanon, there is optimism for a recovery in trade
relations, paving the way for the gradual reopening of import and export
channels. “This would represent a significant leap forward for Lebanese exports
to Saudi Arabia,” said Mohammad Abou Haidar, Director General of the Ministry of
Economy, in an interview with This is Beirut.
Profitable Trade Relations
Abou Haidar revealed that Saudi Arabia accounted for roughly 10% of Lebanon's
total exports, with an annual trade volume nearing $618 million. In 2015,
Lebanon's exports to Saudi Arabia stood at $377.45 million. By 2020, this figure
had surpassed $245 million, only to drop to $123.9 million in 2022. As for
imports, Lebanon brought in $379.96 million worth of goods from Saudi Arabia in
2015, peaking at around $440 million in 2013, and then falling to $309.98
million in 2022. Notably, Lebanon’s imports from Saudi Arabia have generally
exceeded exports, with the exception of 2020. Abou Haidar emphasized that the
Ministry is working on boosting Lebanese exports. In 2021, Lebanon's main
exports to Saudi Arabia included essential oils, cosmetics, and perfumes (11%),
vegetables and fruits (8%), chocolate and chocolate products (7%), pearls (6%),
and furniture, beds, and mattresses (11%). However, by 2022, Lebanon's exports
had diversified, with books and newspapers making up 68% of total exports to the
Kingdom. Regarding imports from Saudi Arabia, the majority consisted of mineral
fuels, accounting for 43% of the total in 2022, followed by plastic products
(26%). The share of pharmaceutical imports decreased from 8% in 2021 to 3% in
2022. “At its peak in 2014, trade between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia reached
approximately $760 million,” noted Abou Haidar. Abou Haidar emphasized, “In the
past two years, a strong foundation has been established for a series of
agreements between Lebanon and the Kingdom.” These agreements span a wide range
of sectors, including the economy, development, trade, exhibitions, industry,
investment, environment, defense, military cooperation, civil aviation,
counter-terrorism and its financing, tax evasion prevention, customs, along with
land and maritime transport. The main goal of these agreements is to support
Lebanon’s development efforts, guiding it toward becoming a developed nation. He
further noted that the signing and announcement of these agreements will greatly
enhance confidence in Lebanon, providing a substantial boost to the economy by
attracting foreign investments, as Saudi Arabia serves as “a gateway and
economic corridor to various Arab and international markets.” “Moreover, the
tourism sector is set to recover with the return of Saudi visitors to Lebanon,”
added Abou Haidar.
Diplomatic Break in 2021
In late 2021, relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia soured following
remarks by then-Minister of Information Georges Cordahi, who criticized Saudi
Arabia's involvement in the Yemen war. In response, Saudi Arabia suspended all
imports from Lebanon amid the country’s severe political and economic crisis.
The Kingdom, frustrated by Hezbollah's “influence in Lebanon's political sphere”
and “the Lebanese leadership's failure to enact the required reforms,” saw
little reason to maintain ties. Further complications arose when Saudi
authorities intercepted shipments of Captagon pills hidden in Lebanese
agricultural exports, adding strain to the bilateral trade relationship.
Longstanding Saudi Support for Lebanon
Historically, Saudi Arabia has been a key partner and supporter of Lebanon,
notably in the energy sector by supplying essential oil. The Kingdom has also
been a significant investor in Lebanon, particularly in the real estate and
banking sectors, and its financial transfers have provided crucial support to
many Lebanese families. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has made substantial financial
contributions to Lebanon, including loans and grants aimed at strengthening its
economy and institutions. The diplomatic rupture led to a series of actions that
severely impacted Lebanon’s economy. Riyad suspended a $3 billion military aid
package to the Lebanese Army, and Saudi investments in Lebanon sharply
diminished. Numerous infrastructure projects supported by the Kingdom were
suspended, and the number of Saudi tourists visiting Lebanon plummeted, further
deepening the country's economic struggles. As Lebanon works to recover from its
economic crisis, the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia could play a
pivotal role in its economic recovery.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 25-26/2025
US says it is ‘critical’ that Gaza ceasefire implementation continues
Reuters/January 26, 2025
WASHINGTON: The US government said on Saturday it was “critical” that
implementation of the Gaza ceasefire continues, after four Israeli soldiers were
freed by Palestinian Hamas militants in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners.
KEY QUOTES
“It is critical that the ceasefire implementation continues and that all of the
hostages are freed from Hamas captivity and safely returned to their families,”
the US State Department said in a statement on Saturday. Statements by the State
Department and the White House welcomed the release of Israeli hostages and did
not mention the Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel. “The United States
celebrates the release of the four Israeli hostages held in captivity for 477
days,” the State Department added.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
The week-old ceasefire in Gaza began last weekend just before US President
Donald Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20. Both Republican Trump and Democratic
former President Joe Biden have been strong backers of Washington’s ally Israel.
Trump has credited his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff for the ceasefire deal
reached after months of talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar. Before his
inauguration, Trump warned there would be “hell to pay” if hostages held by
Hamas in Gaza were not released.
CONTEXT
Hamas took around 250 hostages during an Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel in which
about 1,200 people were killed, according to Israeli tallies. It sparked the
latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israel’s subsequent military assault on Gaza has killed over 47,000 people,
according to the Gaza health ministry, and led to accusations of genocide and
war crimes that Israel denies. It also displaced nearly Gaza’s entire population
and caused a hunger crisis.
Who are the Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for
Israeli hostages?
AP/January 25, 2025
RAMALLAH, West Bank: The release of four female Israeli soldiers from Hamas
captivity on Saturday came at a heavy cost for Israel. Israel released 200
Palestinian prisoners, 120 of them serving life sentences, from its jails as
part of a ceasefire deal. They ranged in age from 16 to 67.
Some were set free into an exuberant West Bank, while those whose offenses were
considered too serious were transferred to Egypt. In the West Bank city of
Ramallah on Saturday, dozens of freed Palestinians, all looking wan and thin in
stained gray Israeli prison jumpsuits, disembarked from a white Red Cross bus.
They launched themselves into a jubilant crowd. The images dredged up trauma for
Israelis whose loved ones were killed by some of those released. Palestinian
prisoners released by Israel wave and cheer to people below gathering to receive
them at a sports centre building of the Ramallah municipality, after arriving
there aboard buses of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), in
Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on January 25, 2025. (AFP) Moshe Har Melech,
whose son was killed in a Palestinian shooting attack in 2003, said that he was
sickened by the released prisoners being greeted as “superheroes” and warned
that even exile was no deterrent. “They’ll continue remotely recruiting and
establishing terrorist cells,” he said. “But this time, they’ll be more
experienced.”Adrenalized teenagers streamed the revelry on social media, and
mothers wept as they hugged their sons for the first time in years. “It can’t be
described. To be between your mother and father, it’s an indescribable feeling,”
said Azmi Nafaa, accused of trying to ram his vehicle into Israeli soldiers at a
checkpoint in 2015 and sentenced to 20 years in prison. After nine years in
prison, Nafaa hugged his mother, Hadiya Hamdan. She suggested that she cook meat
dumplings in yogurt sauce, and he laughed, suggesting instead the more elaborate
“mansaf,” a Bedouin dish of lamb and rice. “That will be difficult for you,” he
said. “No,” she replied. “Nothing will be difficult.”There was no such reception
for the 70 prisoners sent into exile, whose convoy made its way south and
quietly slipped through Gaza’s Rafah border crossing into Egypt. Underscoring
the challenges for Israel, the reception for prisoners in Ramallah, the seat of
the Palestinian Authority, revealed an outpouring of support for the rival Hamas
group. Many young Palestinians waved the bright green flags of Hamas and called
on the militant group to capture more Israelis in order to free all the
prisoners. Hard-line commentators criticized the deal as justice undone and
capitulation to the enemy. “A deal that releases brutal murderers ... endangers
the lives of more Israelis down the road,” David M. Weinberg, a senior fellow at
the conservative research group Misgav, wrote in the Makor Rishon right-wing
newspaper. “And that road is not particularly long.”Here’s a look at the more
prominent Palestinian prisoners released on Saturday.
Mohammed Aradeh, 42
An activist in Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Aradeh, was sentenced to life in
prison for a range of offenses going back to the second intifada, or uprising
against Israel’s occupation in the early 2000s. Some of the charges, according
to the Israeli Prison Service, included planting an explosive device and
attempting murder. He was credited with plotting an extraordinary prison escape
in 2021, when he and five other detainees used spoons to tunnel out one of
Israel’s most secure prisons. They remained at large for days before being
caught.
From an impoverished and politically active family Jenin, in the northern
occupied West Bank, Aradeh has three brothers and a sister who have all spent
years in Israeli prison. He was welcomed as a sort of cult hero in Ramallah on
Saturday as family, friends and fans swarmed him, some chanting “The freedom
tunnel!” in reference to his prison escape. When asked how he felt, Aradeh was
breathless.
Over and over he muttered, “Thank God, thank God.”
Mohammed Odeh, 52, Wael Qassim, 54, and Wissam Abbasi, 48
All three men hail from the neighborhood of Silwan, in east Jerusalem, and rose
within the ranks of Hamas. Held responsible for a string of deadly attacks
during the second intifada, the men were sentenced to multiple life sentences in
Israeli jail in 2002. They were accused of plotting a suicide bombing at a
crowded pool hall near Tel Aviv in 2002 that killed 15 people. Later that year,
they were found to have orchestrated a bombing at Hebrew University that killed
nine people, including five American students. Israel had described Odeh, who
was working as a painter at the university at the time, as the kingpin in the
attack. All three were among those transferred to Egypt. Their families all live
in Jerusalem.
The Abu Hamid brothers
Three brothers from the prominent Abu Hamid family of the Al-Amari refugee camp
in Ramallah — Nasser, 51, Mohammad, 44, and Sharif, 48 — were deported together
on Saturday. They had been sentenced to life in prison over deadly militant
attacks against Israelis in 2002. Their brother, a different Nasser Abu Hamid,
was one of the founders of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade — an armed militia
affiliated with Fatah, the secular political party that controls the Palestinian
Authority. He was also sentenced to life in prison for several deadly attacks.
His 2022 death from lung cancer behind bars unleashed a wave of angry protests
and strikes across the West Bank as Palestinian officials accused Israel of
medical neglect. The family has a long arc of Palestinian militancy. The mother,
Latifa Abu Hamid, 72, now has three sons exiled, one still imprisoned, one who
died in prison and one who was killed by Israeli forces. Their family house has
been demolished at least three times by Israel, which defends such punitive home
demolitions as a deterrent against future attacks. Mohammad Al-Tous, 67. Al-Tous
had held the title of longest continuous Israeli imprisonment until his release
on Saturday, Palestinian authorities said. First arrested in 1985 while fighting
Israeli forces along the Jordanian border, the activist in the Fatah party spent
a total of 39 years behind bars. Originally from the West Bank city of
Bethlehem, he was among the prisoners exiled to Egypt.
Israel blocks Gazans’ return to territory’s north unless civilian woman hostage
freed
AFP/January 25, 2025
JERUSALEM: Israel said on Saturday it would block the return of displaced
Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza until civilian woman hostage Arbel
Yehud is released. “Israel will not allow the passage of Gazans to the northern
part of the Gaza Strip until the release of civilian Arbel Yehud, who was
supposed to be released today, is arranged,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s
office said. Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said, “Hamas
did not comply with the agreement on its obligation to return civilian females
first.”
Two Hamas sources said that Yehud was “alive and in good health.” A Hamas source
said that she will be “released as part of the third swap set for next
Saturday,” February 1. Earlier on Saturday four Israeli women soldiers held
captive in Gaza were released by Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Crowds cheer, families hug as Palestinian prisoners
released
AFP/January 25, 2025
RAMALLAH: Azzam Al-Shallalta dropped to his knees and wept at his mother’s feet
as he arrived in the West Bank city of Ramallah with other Palestinian prisoners
released under the Gaza ceasefire on Saturday. A jubilant crowd carried
Shallalta on their shoulders from the bus that brought him from jail, the freed
prisoner still wearing his grey prison tracksuit. “My situation was
heartbreaking, truly heartbreaking. We pray to God to free all our brothers
we’ve left behind,” he told the crowd, his head shaved and his face pale and
thin under a long red beard. “I can’t describe the feeling — just hearing the
news that I would be released was overwhelming,” he said while shaking hands
with well-wishers. Around him Palestinians cheered and waved the national flag,
as they welcomed dozens of prisoners who arrived in buses. Hundreds waited in
the local sports center where the prisoners were dropped off for a short health
checkup, while hundreds more watched on from the surrounding hills as fireworks
went off. Israel said it released 200 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday in
exchange for four Israeli women soldiers held in Gaza since Hamas’s October 2023
attack which sparked the war. Not all of the prisoners were bused to Ramallah.
Sixteen were taken to Gaza, while 70 were sent via Egypt into exile in Algeria,
Tunisia or Turkiye. A total of 121 of the prisoners released had been serving
life sentences. Tareq Yahya, another freed prisoner, spoke with emotion as he
stepped off the bus into the crowd. “It’s amazing how much love our people have
shown us, how they’ve stood by us and expressed their solidarity,” the
31-year-old from the northern West Bank city of Jenin said. Looking through the
crowd, Yahya searched for relatives, finding none. “It seems, based on the
situation in Jenin, they weren’t able to make it,” he said, referring to an
ongoing Israeli military operation in the city. “I’ll try to find them,
though.”Thinking of the other prisoners who will be released in the coming weeks
in exchange for Gaza hostages, Yahya said the ceasefire’s guarantors “need to
set strong conditions to prevent the beatings, humiliation and mistreatment the
jailers have inflicted on us in these last days before our release.”
Maisa Abu Bakr, 33, came early with her family to see her uncle Yasser Abu Bakr,
whose name was on the list of those to be released this week. She said they
avidly followed the news “on Telegram and TV, and we were ready, wearing our
(best) clothes, waiting for the time to get out and come here.”
Yasser Abu Bakr had been in jail since 2002 serving multiple life sentences.
“When the lists were published, we saw his name and we were surprised because we
didn’t expect that he would be freed.” Others were not so lucky, like the family
of Sadiqi Al-Zaro, 65, who made the time-consuming journey from the southern
West Bank city of Hebron through multiple Israeli checkpoints to Ramallah.
Zaro’s nephew Tareq told AFP the family had come after receiving a phone call
from an Israeli intelligence officer who said he would be among those released
on Saturday. “We were shocked when the official lists were announced and his
name wasn’t included,” he said. The procedures for clearing prisoners for
release are opaque and the final list was not released until a few hours before
the buses arrived. “There have been a lot of issues since the beginning of this
prisoner release process. It’s been difficult for families to get clear
confirmation,” Tareq Al-Zaro said, his cousins nodding in agreement. He said he
was still hoping for his uncle’s release after 24 years in prison. “We’re
leaving this in God’s hands. We came here based on a phone call, and God
willing, he’ll be released based on an official announcement.”
White House makes 2,000-pound bombs available to Israel,
undoing Biden’s
Reuters/January 25, 2025
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s White House has instructed the US military
to release a hold imposed by the Biden administration on the supply of
2,000-pound bombs to Israel, a White House source told Reuters on Saturday. The
move was widely expected. Biden put the hold on the delivery of those bombs due
to concern over the impact they could have in Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza. A
ceasefire to halt the war was recently agreed. The Biden administration’s
particular concern had been over the use of such large bombs in the city of
Rafah, where more than one million Palestinians in Gaza had taken refuge.
US freezes almost all aid except for Israel, Egypt arms
Agence France Presse/January 25/2025
The United States, the world's biggest donor, has frozen virtually all foreign
aid, making exceptions only for emergency food, and military funding for Israel
and Egypt. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent an internal memo days after
President Donald Trump took office vowing an "America First" policy of tightly
restricting assistance overseas. "No new funds shall be obligated for new awards
or extensions of existing awards until each proposed new award or extension has
been reviewed and approved," said the memo to staff seen by AFP. The sweeping
order appears to affect everything from development assistance to military aid
-- including to Ukraine, which received billions of dollars in weapons under
Trump's predecessor Joe Biden as it tries to repel a Russian invasion. The
directive also means a pause of at least several months of U.S. funding for
PEPFAR, the anti-HIV/AIDS initiative that buys anti-retroviral drugs to treat
the disease in developing countries, largely in Africa. Launched under president
George W. Bush in 2003, PEPFAR is credited with saving some 26 million lives and
until recently enjoyed broad popular support along partisan lines in Washington.
But the memo explicitly made exceptions for military assistance to Israel --
whose longstanding major arms packages from the United States have expanded
further since the Gaza war -- and Egypt, which has received generous US defense
funding since it signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. Rubio also made an
exception for U.S. contributions to emergency food assistance, which the United
States ahs been contributing following crises around the world including in
Sudan and Syria. Lawmakers from the rival Democratic Party said that more than
20 million people relied on medication through PEPFAR and 63 million people on
US-funded anti-malaria efforts including nets. "For years, Republicans in
Congress have decried what they see as a lack of U.S. credibility vis-a-vis
countries like China, Russia, and Iran," said Representative Gregory Meeks, the
top Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee, and Representative Lois
Frankel.
"Now our credibility is on the line, and it appears we will cut and run from
American commitments to our partners around the world," they wrote in a letter.
Washington has long leveraged aid as a tool of its foreign policy, saying it
cares about development and drawing a contrast with China, which is primarily
concerned about seeking natural resources. Meeks and Frankel also noted that
foreign assistance is appropriated by Congress and said they would seek its
implementation.
'Life or death consequences'
The memo allows the State Department to make other case-by-case exceptions and
temporarily to fund salaries to staff and other administrative expenses. The
memo called for an internal review of all foreign assistance within 85 days. In
justifying the freeze, Rubio -- who as a senator was a supporter of development
assistance -- wrote that it was impossible for the new administration to assess
whether existing foreign aid commitments "are not duplicated, are effective and
are consistent with President Trump's foreign policy." The United States has
long been the world's top donor in dollar terms, although a number of European
nations, especially in Scandinavia, give significantly more as a percent of
their economies. The United States gave more than $64 billion in overseas
development assistance in 2023, the last year for which records were available,
according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which
advises industrialized countries. Trump had already on taking office Monday
signed an executive order suspending foreign assistance for 90 days, but it was
not immediately clear how it would be implemented. Anti-poverty group Oxfam said
that Trump was abandoning a longstanding consensus in the United States for
foreign assistance. "Humanitarian and development assistance accounts for only
around one percent of the federal budget; it saves lives, fights diseases,
educates millions of children and reduces poverty," Oxfam America president Abby
Maxman said in a statement. "Suspending and ultimately cutting many of these
programs could have life or death consequences for countless children and
families who are living through crisis," she said.
Syria’s al-Hol camp readies first return of Syrian detainees, no details on
destinations
The Arab Weekly/January 25/2025
Al-Hol camp director Jihan Hanan said preparations were under way for the
voluntary return of 66 families from the massive tent city. Kurdish-led
authorities who run a sprawling camp for detainees linked to the Islamic State
(ISIS) extremist group in northeast Syria are preparing the first-ever return of
detainees to Syrian areas, the camp director said, a move enabled by the fall of
the Assad regime. Al-Hol camp director Jihan Hanan said preparations were under
way for the voluntary return of 66 families from the massive tent city, where
the vast majority of inmates are women and children, to areas inside Syria.
She did not comment on whether the returns were being planned in coordination
with Syria’s new ruling authority, set up by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,
after they ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2023.
No details have been iven so far on the recipient countries. Talks facilitated
by the US and France are under way to determine the future of the Kurdish-led
force that controls northeast Syria. The new Syrian ruling authority has said it
would seek to assert control over the entirety of the country. Packed with
families linked to ISIS after the extremist group’s defeat in Syria in 2019, the
al-Hol camp now has a population of around 40,000. It is widely viewed as a
breeding ground for extremism and a major security concern for regional states,
chiefly neighbouring Iraq, where ISIS at one point controlled about a third of
the country. Camp authorities, led by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces,
have long called on countries to repatriate citizens in the camp, which hosts
thousands of foreigners. Iraq has repatriated more than 10,000, according to
Iraqi officials, but few Western states have shown interest in following suit.
Of those currently in the camp, nearly 16,000 are Syrians, Jihan said. Returning
detainees to Syria under Assad was seen as taboo, given US opposition to his
rule and concerns about torture and killings in the Syrian government’s
notorious prison system. The SDF also runs a jail at Hasakah in northern Syria
that holds about 4,500 ISIS fighters, including many foreigners.
Nearly 30 percent of Syrians want to go home, up from almost zero, UN refugee
chief says
Arab News/January 25, 2025
DAMASCUS: Almost 30 percent of the millions of Syrian refugees living in Middle
Eastern countries want to return home in the next year, following the fall of
President Bashar Assad, up from almost none last year, the head of the UN’s
refugee agency said. The shift is based on an assessment done by the UN in
January, weeks after Assad was ousted by Islamist rebels, bringing an abrupt end
to a 13-year civil war that had created one of the biggest refugee crises of
modern times. “We have seen the needle move, finally, after years of decline,”
Filippo Grandi told a small group of reporters in Damascus, after holding
meetings with the Syria’s new ruling administration. The number of Syrians
wishing to return “had reached almost zero. It’s now nearly 30 percent in the
space of a few weeks. There is a message there, which I think is very important,
must be listened to and must be acted upon,” he said. Around 200,000 Syrian
refugees have already returned since Assad fell, he said, in addition to around
300,000 who fled back to Syria from Lebanon during the Hezbollah-Israel war in
September and October, most of whom are thought to have stayed. Returning the
roughly 6 million Syrians who fled abroad and the millions who became internally
displaced has been a main aim of Syria’s new administration. But the civil war
has left large parts of many major cities in ruins, services decrepit and the
vast majority of the population living in poverty. Syria remains under a harsh
Western sanctions regime that effectively cuts off its formal economy from the
rest of the world. To aid Syrians returning, many of whom often sell all their
belongings to pay for the trip, UN agencies are providing some cash aid for
transportation and will help with food and to reconstruct at least parts of
broken homes, Grandi said. More aid is needed from donors, Grandi said, and
sanctions should be reconsidered. He did not comment directly on an announcement
on Friday by the new US administration of a broad suspension of foreign aid
programs. “If sanctions are lifted, this will improve the conditions in the
places where people return,” he said. The US earlier this month provided a
six-month sanctions exemption for some sectors, including energy, but Syria’s
new leaders say much more relief is needed. Grandi said refugees were responding
to a political process that the new administration’s leader Ahmed Sharaa has
committed to, aimed at producing a governing authority by March 1 that better
represents Syria’s diversity. “Refugees are listening to what he’s saying, to
what his people are saying, and that’s why I think many people decided to go
back,” Grandi said. “But many more will come if these things continue to be
positive.”
Turkiye says will fight terror after death of Iraqi border guards
AFP/January 25, 2025
ISTANBUL: Turkiye vowed on Saturday to work closely with Iraq to secure their
common frontier after two Iraqi border guards were killed in a shooting blamed
on outlawed PKK militants. On Friday, Iraq’s interior ministry said the two
Iraqi guards were killed near the Turkish border in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish
region.
“When the Iraqi border forces were carrying out their duties securing the
Iraqi-Turkish border, they were fired at by terrorists from the banned PKK
organization” in Zakho district, the ministry said. A third guard was wounded,
it added.
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has fought a decades-long insurgency
against the Turkish state, has several outposts in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan
region, which also hosts Turkish military bases. Turkish foreign ministry
spokesman Oncu Keceli said on X that “we are deeply saddened by the deaths of
two border guards as a result of the attack carried out by the PKK terrorist
organization.”“It is clear that the PKK terrorist organization poses a threat to
the national security of Turkiye and Iraq and violates Iraq’s sovereignty,” he
said. “We will continue to fight together with Iraq against terrorism.”The
attack comes ahead of a planned visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to
Baghdad on Sunday.
US Senate confirms former Fox News co-host as Pentagon
chief
Agence France Presse/January 25/2025
The U.S. Senate has narrowly confirmed former Fox News co-host Pete Hegseth as
Pentagon chief, despite allegations of alcohol abuse, sexual misconduct and
other fears about his ability to lead the world's most powerful military. Three
Republican senators voted against Donald Trump's pick as secretary of defense,
resulting in a 50-50 tie that required J.D. Vance to cast the deciding ballot --
only the second time in history a vice president has had to intervene to save a
cabinet nominee. The razor-edged result underscored concerns about Hegseth, who
will take over the Pentagon with war raging in Ukraine, the Middle East volatile
despite ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza, and as Trump expands the military's role
in security on the U.S.-Mexico border. The 44-year-old is a former Army National
Guard officer who until recently worked as a co-host for Fox News -- one of
Trump's favored television channels. Hegseth has a combative media personality,
fierce loyalty and telegenic looks -- common hallmarks in Trump's entourage.
Supporters say Hegseth's deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq give him the
insight to run the Defense Department better than more experienced officials who
would normally be considered for the job.
He has pledged to focus the military on "lethality" and to bring back "warrior
culture" to the Pentagon. In confirming him, Republicans brushed aside his lack
of experience leading an organization anywhere near the size of the Defense
Department -- the country's largest employer with some three million personnel.
They also approved Hegseth despite allegations of financial mismanagement at
veterans' nonprofits where he previously worked, reports of excessive drinking,
and allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman in California. Asked during
his confirmation hearing last week about criticism he has faced, Hegseth said
there was a "coordinated smear campaign" against him, and that he is "not a
perfect person, but redemption is real." Trump has stood by him, telling
reporters Friday: "Pete's a very, very good man."Shortly after he was confirmed,
Trump wrote on his Social Truth platform: "Congratulations to Pete Hegseth. He
will make a great Secretary of Defense!"
'Erratic and aggressive behavior'
But three Republicans -- senators Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell and Lisa
Murkowski -- were unconvinced and voted against him. Murkowski said on X
the day before the Friday vote that "past behaviors Mr Hegseth has admitted to,
including infidelity on multiple occasions, demonstrate a lack of judgment that
is unbecoming of someone who would lead our armed forces."Prior to his approval
by the full Senate, lawmakers received an affidavit from Hegseth's former
sister-in-law Danielle Hegseth that added to the allegations against him. "I
believe Hegseth has an alcohol abuse problem and was abusive to his ex-wife
Samantha," the affidavit said, though it noted that Danielle Hegseth did not
personally witness physical or sexual abuse by the incoming defense secretary.
Danielle Hegseth however said she "personally observed... Hegseth's erratic and
aggressive behavior over many years," that she was subjected to emotional abuse
by him, and that she was told by his ex-wife that she once hid from him in a
closet because she "feared for her personal safety." According to the affidavit,
Hegseth also told his ex-sister-in-law that women should not work or have the
right to vote, and said that "Christians needed to have more children so they
can overtake the Muslim population."During his combative confirmation hearing,
Hegseth stuck to his opposition to diversity, equity and inclusion policies --
long a bugbear for Republicans -- saying they are "dividing troops inside
formations, causing commanders to walk on eggshells, not putting meritocracy
first." But he sought to soften past remarks opposing women serving in combat,
telling lawmakers that "women will have access to ground combat roles... given
the standards remain high."Three more of Trump's most contentious nominees will
soon be grilled by lawmakers. Kash Patel -- Trump's nominee to lead the FBI --
Tulsi Gabbard, his pick for director of national intelligence, and Robert F
Kennedy Jr, the president's choice for secretary of health and human services,
are expected to have Senate hearings next week.
Hamas frees 4 female Israeli soldiers as part of the Gaza ceasefire
Associated Press/January 25/2025
Hamas militants handed over four captive female Israeli soldiers to the Red
Cross in Gaza City on Saturday. Israel was set to release 200 Palestinian
detainees later in the day as part of the fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
As the four were released, hundreds of people cheered in Tel Aviv's Hostages
Square where they were watching the drama unfold on a big screen television.
"I'm speechless," said Aviv Bercovich, one of the onlookers. "I had goosebumps
watching them. I just want the war to end." Israel confirmed that the captives
were with its forces not long after they were driven away from the handover in
Gaza City by the Red Cross. The crowds in Tel Aviv and also in Gaza City had
begun gathering earlier in the day in anticipation of the swap between Israel
and Hamas, the second such exchange since a ceasefire began in the Gaza Strip
last weekend and another test for the deal. The truce is aimed at winding down
the deadliest and most destructive war ever fought between Israel and the
militant group. The fragile deal has so far held, quieting airstrikes and
rockets and allowing for increased aid to flow into the tiny coastal territory.
When the ceasefire started Sunday, three captives held by the militants were
released in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners, all women and children. Who
are the soldiers and prisoners being released? The four Israeli soldiers, Karina
Ariev, 20, Daniella Gilboa, 20, Naama Levy, 20, and Liri Albag, 19, were
captured in Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack that ignited the war. In exchange,
Israel was to release 200 prisoners, including 121 who were serving life
sentences, according to a list released by Hamas. Of those, the list indicated
that 70 would be expelled from Gaza and the West bank but did not say where. The
more known militants being released include Mohammad Odeh, 52, and Wael Qassim,
54, both from east Jerusalem. They were accused of carrying out a series of
deadly Hamas attacks against Israelis, including a bombing at a cafeteria at the
Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 2002 that killed nine people, including five
U.S. citizens. The four soldiers released were taken from Nahal Oz base near the
border with Gaza when Palestinian militants overran it, killing more than 60
soldiers there. The female abductees had all served in a unit of lookouts
charged with monitoring threats along the border. A fifth female soldier in
their unit, Agam Berger, 20, was abducted with them but not included in the
list.
Israel's military issued a statement Saturday morning saying that preparations
had been completed to receive the captives and provide them medical care and
personal support at the initial reception points, then transfer them to
hospitals and reunite them with their families. "This is huge," said Gaza City
resident Radwan Abu Rawiya, one of thousands who watched the captives turned
over in Palestine Square."People forgot about the war, destruction and are
celebrating," he said.
What's next in the ceasefire deal
After the swap, Israel is expected to begin pulling back from the Netzarim
corridor — an east-west road dividing Gaza in two — and allowing displaced
Palestinians in the south to return to their former homes in the north for the
first time since the beginning of the war. Palestinians will only be allowed to
move north on foot, with vehicular traffic restricted until later in the
ceasefire. The Hamas-run interior ministry said displaced Palestinians will be
allowed to return to northern Gaza starting Sunday. In a statement Saturday, the
ministry, which oversees police forces, said Palestinians will be able to move
between southern and northern Gaza on foot through the coastal Rashid road. What
happens after the deal's initial six-week phase is uncertain, but many hope it
will lead to the end of a war that has leveled wide swaths of Gaza, displaced
the vast majority of its population and left hundreds of thousands of people at
risk of famine. The conflict began with a cross-border attack led by Hamas on
Oct. 7, 2023, when Palestinian militants allegedly killed some 1,200 people,
mostly civilians, and took around 250 others captive. More than 100 captives
were freed in a weeklong truce the following month. But dozens have remained in
captivity for over a year with no contact with the outside world. Israel
believes at least a third of the more than 90 captives still inside Gaza were
killed in the initial attack or died in captivity. While many rejoiced in Tel
Aviv's Hostage Square after the four soldiers were released Saturday, some
worried about the fate of those still in captivity. "It's hard that she's still
there," said Yoni Collins, a family friend of Agam Berger, the fifth female
soldier taken from Nahal Oz base who's still being held in Gaza. "There were
five girls, four are out and now she's there alone," he said. "We're just
waiting for her to come home." Israel's air and ground war, one of the deadliest
and most destructive in decades, has killed over 47,000 Palestinians, according
to local health officials, who do not say how many were militants. They say
women and children make up more than half the fatalities.
Italian Prime Minister Meloni begins official visit to
Saudi Arabia
Arab News/January 25, 2025
JEDDAH: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni began an official visit to Saudi
Arabia on Saturday. Meloni arrived in Jeddah where she was met at the airport by
the Deputy Governor of Makkah Region Prince Saud bin Mishaal bin Abdulaziz among
other officials, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Her visit comes after Saudi
Arabia and Italy signed an agreement earlier this month to boost energy
cooperation. The deal includes a possible supply to Europe of green hydrogen
made in the Kingdom. Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman met
with Italy’s Minister of Energy and Environment Gilberto Pichetto Fratinon on
Jan. 14 to sign the memorandum of understanding.
Yemen’s Houthis release 153 war detainees, Red Cross says
AP/January 25, 2025
DUBAI: Yemen’s Houthi rebels unilaterally freed 153 war detainees Saturday, the
International Committee of the Red Cross said, one of several overtures in
recent days to ease tensions after the ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in the
Gaza Strip. Previous prisoner releases have been viewed as a means to jumpstart
talks over permanently ending Yemen’s decadelong war, which began when the
Houthis seized the country’s capital, Sanaa, in 2014. However, the Houthis’
release comes just after they detained another seven Yemeni workers from the
United Nations, sparking anger from the world body. Those released previously
had been visited by Red Cross staff in Sanaa and received medical checks and
other assistance, the organization said while announcing the release. The
Houthis had signaled Friday night they planned a release of prisoners. The Red
Cross said it “welcomes this unilateral release as another positive step toward
reviving negotiations.” “This operation has brought much-needed relief and joy
to families who have been anxiously waiting for the return of their loved ones,”
said Christine Cipolla, the ICRC’s head of delegation in Yemen. “We know that
many other families are also waiting for their chance to be reunited. We hope
that today’s release will lead to many more moments like this.” Abdul Qader Al-Murtada,
the head of the Houthis’ Committee for Prisoners’ Affairs, said in a statement
carried by Houthi media that those released were “humanitarian cases’ that
included the sick, wounded and the elderly. “The goal of the initiative is to
build trust and establish a new phase of serious and honest dealing,” Al-Murtada
reportedly said. The Red Cross has helped oversee other prisoner releases,
including one that saw some 1,000 prisoners swapped in 2020, over 800 detainees
exchanged in 2023 and another release in 2024. The rebels said earlier this week
they would limit their attacks on ships in the Red Sea corridor and released the
25-member crew of the Galaxy Leader, a ship they seized back in November 2023,
as the Gaza ceasefire took hold. The war in Yemen has killed more than 150,000
people, including fighters and civilians, and created one of the world’s worst
humanitarian disasters, killing tens of thousands more.
The Houthis’ attacks on shipping during the Israel-Hamas war have helped deflect
attention from their problems at home. But they have faced casualties and damage
from US-led airstrikes targeting the group for months now, as well as other
strikes by Israel. Meanwhile, Yemen’s economy is in tatters, something that’s
put increasing pressure on the Houthis and others in the conflict to potentially
negotiate an end to the war. A de facto ceasefire in the conflict, which drew in
a Saudi-led coalition in 2015, has largely held for several years now even
during the Houthis attacks over the Israel-Hamas war. Yet the Houthis still
conducted the raids that saw seven UN workers detained, likely alongside others.
The rebels previously detained UN staffers, as well as individuals associated
with the once-open US Embassy in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, aid groups and civil
society. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres late Friday demanded the
immediate and unconditional release of the seven, as well as all other UN
workers held by the Houthis, some since 2021. “The continued targeting of UN
personnel and its partners negatively impacts our ability to assist millions of
people in need in Yemen,” he warned in a statement. “The Houthis must deliver on
their previous commitments and act in the best interests of the Yemeni people
and the overall efforts to achieve peace in Yemen.”The UN has halted work in
Yemen, which provides food, medicine and other aid to the impoverished nation.
US President Donald Trump separately has moved to reinstate a terrorism
designation he made on the group late in his first term that had been revoked by
President Joe Biden, potentially setting the stage for new tensions with the
rebels.
Analysts have linked the newest UN detentions as being connected to the
decision, though the Houthis themselves have yet to comment on them. The rebels
have been airing repeated programs on television channels they control parading
people they describe as working with Western intelligence agencies or the
Israelis.
67 killed in drone attack on hospital in Sudan’s Darfur
AFP/January 25, 2025
PORT SUDAN: A drone attack on one of the last functioning hospitals in El-Fasher
in Sudan’s Darfur region has killed 67 people and injured dozens, local
activists and a medical source said Saturday, updating an earlier toll.
“Thirty-seven of those injured in the drone strike yesterday died today,
bringing the number of victims up to 67,” the source told AFP, requesting
anonymity for fear of retaliation. He added that a number of those injured were
still being treated, but could not give an exact figure. The bombing of the
Saudi Hospital late Friday had “led to the destruction” of the hospital’s
emergency building, the source said. AFP could not independently verify which of
Sudan’s warring sides had launched the attack. Since April 2023, the Sudanese
army has been at war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have
seized nearly the entire vast western region of Darfur. Since May they have
besieged El-Fasher, the state capital of North Darfur, but have not managed to
claim the city where army-aligned militias have repeatedly pushed them back.
Last week, the RSF issued an ultimatum demanding army forces and allies leave
the city by Wednesday afternoon in advance of an expected offensive. Local
activists have reported intermittent fighting since, including repeated
artillery fire from the RSF on the famine-hit Abu Shouk displacement camp. On
Friday morning alone, heavy shelling killed eight people in the camp, according
to civil society group the Darfur General Coordination of Camps for the
Displaced and Refugees. The United Nations has voiced alarm, calling on both
parties to ensure the protection of the city’s civilian population — some two
million people. “The people of El-Fasher have suffered so much already,” Seif
Magango, spokesman of the UN rights office, said Wednesday.
CIA now says COVID-19 ‘more likely’ to have come from lab
Reuters/January 25, 2025
NEW YORK: The Central Intelligence Agency has assessed that the COVID-19
pandemic is “more likely” to have emerged from a lab rather than from nature, an
agency spokesperson said on Saturday. The agency had for years said it could not
conclude whether COVID-19 was the result of a lab incident or it originated in
nature. But in the final weeks of the Biden administration, former CIA Director
William Burns asked CIA analysts and scientists to make a clear determination,
stressing the pandemic’s historical significance, according to a senior US
official. The CIA says it has “low confidence” in its assessment that a
“research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely” and notes in
its statement that both scenarios — lab origin and natural origin — remain
plausible. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a
request for comment. It was unclear the extent to which the agency has collected
new intelligence on COVID-19’s origins and whether that new evidence was used to
formulate the latest assessment. China’s government says it supports and has
taken part in research to determine COVID-19’s origin, and has accused
Washington of politicizing the matter, especially because of efforts by US
intelligence agencies to investigate. Beijing has said claims that a laboratory
leak likely caused the pandemic have no credibility. In an interview with
Breitbart following his confirmation by the US Senate on Friday, CIA Director
John Ratcliffe said one of his first priorities was getting his agency to make a
public assessment on the pandemic’s origins. “That’s a day-one thing for me,” he
said. “I’ve been on record as you know in saying I think our intelligence, our
science, and our common sense all really dictate that the origins of COVID was a
leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”
Pope Francis warns of ‘fanaticism, hatred’ in social media
AFP/January 25, 2025
VATICAN CITY: Pope Francis denounced an era of “disinformation and polarization”
on Friday in a message for World Communications Day, as he criticized powerful
social networks creating “fanaticism and even hatred.”In saluting journalists,
he spoke of their collective responsibility working “in these our times,
characterised by disinformation and polarization, as a few centers of power
control an unprecedented mass of data and information.”The 88-year-old pope —
who has warned in the past of the dangers of new technologies, including social
media and artificial intelligence — did not cite Facebook or X by name, but his
target was evident. “Too often today, communication generates not hope, but fear
and despair, prejudice and resentment, fanaticism and even hatred,” the pope
wrote in his message. “All too often it simplifies reality in order to provoke
instinctive reactions; it uses words like a razor; it even uses false or
artfully distorted information to send messages designed to agitate, provoke or
hurt.”
FASTFACTS
• The 88-year-old pope — who has warned in the past of the dangers of new
technologies, including social media and artificial intelligence — did not cite
Facebook or X by name, but his target was evident.
• In a speech quoting Martin Luther King Jr., Francis said he dreamed of
‘communication that does not peddle illusions or fears, but is able to give
reasons for hope. The pope’s admonition comes as X, owned by Elon Musk, has been
accused of spreading false information while interfering in European politics,
in particular for attacking leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The billionaire also used his platform and
vast wealth to help propel Donald Trump to the White House. Meta has also come
under fire after its chief Mark Zuckerberg said this month that Facebook would
end its third-party fact-checking program in the United States, in what critics
warned would further fuel false information online. In a speech quoting Martin
Luther King Jr., Francis said he dreamed of “communication that does not peddle
illusions or fears, but is able to give reasons for hope.”He warned, however, of
algorithms that feed social media users information that is specifically catered
to their interests and prejudices. Such “digital systems... by profiling us
according to the logic of the market, modify our perception of reality,” he
said.“As a result, we witness, often helplessly, a sort of atomization of
interests that ends up undermining the foundations of our existence as a
community, our ability to join in the pursuit of the common good, to listen to
one another and to understand each other’s point of view.” Earlier this month,
in his New Year’s address to Vatican diplomats, Francis lamented increasing
polarization in society, “aggravated by the continuous creation and spread of
fake news.”Francis himself is a frequent target of unfounded rumors and
manipulated photos online.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 25-26/2025
Negotiating with Iran on New 'Deal' Is Insane Waste
of Time. Take Out Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program Now!
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./January 25, 2025
Diplomacy, negotiations, or a new "deal," have no hope of limiting the regime's
plans either for a nuclear weapons breakout or for "exporting the revolution"
after Trump has safely left office.
"There's a one in trillion chance you'll degrade the Iranian nuclear program
through diplomacy. There's a 90% chance you'll degrade it through military
action by Israel, supported by the United States." — US Senator Lindsey Graham
(R-SC), Politico, January 19, 2025.
An empowered, nuclear-armed Iran would no doubt increase its support for its
terrorist proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as most likely
triggering the mother of all nuclear arms-races.
Ending Iran's nuclear program, bluntly, is a matter of global security. The
United States must stand not just with Israel and the Gulf States, but with
itself. "If we don't do that," Graham said, "it will be a historical mistake."
Diplomacy, negotiations, or a new "deal," have no hope of limiting the regime's
plans either for a nuclear weapons breakout or for "exporting the revolution"
after Trump has safely left office.
Iran, led by the mullahs, is on the brink of crossing the nuclear weapons
threshold. Once it reaches this milestone, the regime is presumably hoping that
it would then be too hazardous for any country to stop it. It is critical to act
decisively as soon as possible to stop Iran before it crosses that threshold.
Failing to will only embolden a regime known for unremitting aggression at home
and abroad.
The Iranian regime seeks to acquire the power to expand its ideological reach to
dominate the region -- for a start.
Diplomacy, negotiations, or a new "deal," have no hope of limiting the regime's
plans either for a nuclear weapons breakout or for "exporting the revolution"
after Trump has safely left office.
As US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) put it:
"There's a one in trillion chance you'll degrade the Iranian nuclear program
through diplomacy. There's a 90% chance you'll degrade it through military
action by Israel, supported by the United States."
Once Iran achieves nuclear weapons capability, it will be emboldened in ways
that will make the world's current geopolitical challenges seem manageable. A
nuclear-armed Iran would most likely escalate its aggression, continuing to pose
an existential threat to US forces in the region; to the oil-rich Sunni Arab
countries in the Gulf; to the "little Satan," Israel, and of course, to the
"Great Satan" in the Western Hemisphere, the US.
As The Atlantic cautioned, "When Iran Says 'Death to Israel,' It Means It." Iran
also means it when it places military assets in Venezuela and the Caribbean.
An empowered, nuclear-armed Iran would no doubt increase its support for its
terrorist proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as most likely
triggering the mother of all nuclear arms-races.
Iran's nuclear ambitions go hand in hand with its broader aspirations: to spread
its ideological vision of an ummah (global Islamic nation) under its control, as
enshrined in the country's constitution.
While Iran's nuclear program poses a significant external threat, the mullahs
have long employed brutal tactics to suppress their own people. They have a
46-year record of engaging in mass executions, torture and imprisoning
dissidents.
Iran's leadership, knowing that it faces little risk of external intervention,
would likely become even more zealous to impose its will on its citizens. As
Graham has remarked, "It would be like negotiating with Hitler."
Ending Iran's nuclear program, bluntly, is a matter of global security. The
United States must stand not just with Israel and the Gulf States, but with
itself. "If we don't do that," Graham said, "it will be a historical mistake."
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and
board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on
the US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21344/negotiating-with-iran
Growth is key to closing the ‘Africa Gap’
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 25, 2025
Africa, a continent abundant in natural resources and human capital, should
theoretically be fertile ground for economic dynamism. Yet it grapples with
profound challenges that perpetuate what has come to be known as the “Africa
Gap.”This economic disparity between Africa and the rest of the world is
reflected in metrics, such as purchasing power parity and gross domestic product
per capita, both of which lag significantly behind other regions.
Despite making remarkable strides, and a burgeoning youth population with
increasing political agency, Africa’s economies have not experienced the kind of
transformative growth needed to close this gap.
The effects are daunting: By 2030, Africans are expected to constitute more than
80 percent of the world’s poor. The urgent need to address this growing
inequality is amplified by the potential socioeconomic unrest and climate
vulnerabilities that accompany such stagnation.
Africa’s staggering population increase presents an unparalleled opportunity for
economic acceleration, if harnessed effectively. By 2070, the population of the
continent is expected to double once more, solidifying its status as home to a
significant proportion of the global population.
This burgeoning demographic, predominantly young and increasingly educated,
holds the potential to drive transformative economic growth. For instance,
average life expectancy has increased from 41 to 64 years since 1960, and
university attendance has risen nine-fold since the 1970s.
Yet this demographic dividend remains at risk of being squandered if economies
fail to evolve in tandem. Currently, Africa’s GDP per capita, adjusted for
purchasing power parity, is merely a quarter of the global average, and the
region faces a growing economic disparity with East Asia, where average incomes
are seven times higher.
The continent must therefore capitalize on its youthful demographic, which
requires the creation of robust, dynamic private sectors and the implementation
of effective governance to usher in an era of entrepreneurial vigor and reform.
At a foundational level, however, African economies have historically leaned
heavily on statist models characterized by protectionist barriers and an
overreliance on commodities exports, which has hindered growth and made them
acutely vulnerable to global price shocks.
For example, the heavy dependence on oil in countries such as Nigeria and Angola
has led to punishing economic vulnerability, as a sudden fall in oil prices can
cause significant fiscal deficits and economic instability.
Meanwhile, although it accounts for a mere 2 percent of global economic
activity, sub-Saharan Africa is home to a staggering 14 percent of the world’s
population, highlighting a severe imbalance and inefficiency within its
economies. Trade patterns in the region further illustrate these challenges,
with intraregional trade accounting for a paltry 17 percent of total trade,
compared with 69 percent in Europe. Without a shift away from these entrenched
and stultifying economic strategies, the promises of resilience and equitable
growth will remain out of reach.
Additionally, infrastructure development must form part of a foundational
strategy for bridging the economic divide between Africa and the rest of the
world, yet it must be approached without the entanglements of crippling debt or
onerous conditions. For too long, African nations have struggled under the
burden of inadequate roads, unreliable power supplies, and limited technological
access. The power of infrastructure to ignite economic transformation can be
seen in the rapid ascent of China, where strategic investment in transport,
energy, and telecommunications fueled unprecedented growth and lifted millions
out of poverty. The African Continental Free Trade Area envisions a unified
market to bolster intra-African trade.
Africa stands at a similar threshold; by prioritizing robust infrastructure, the
continent can unlock vast entrepreneurial energy, stimulate rural and urban
commerce, and create resilient, interconnected economies. Such development
requires a focus on partnerships that respect African agency, where investments
are aligned with local priorities and bolster, rather than bind, futures.
For Africa to harness its vast potential and achieve rapid growth, then
political stability, effective governance and technocratic leadership are
paramount. The persistent issues of corruption and mismanagement have
consistently hindered development by diverting essential resources from critical
projects and social services. For instance, countries such as Botswana have
shown how sound governance and political stability can attract foreign
investment and spur economic prosperity. In contrast, nations marred by
political tumult and opaque governance face stagnation. By promoting the
principles of transparency and accountability, the continent can not only build
trust but also ensure that scarce resources are efficiently allocated to key
priorities.
Next, education and skills development are also essential requirements to help
bridge the “Africa Gap” and harness this demographic dividend. Children in
Africa are five times less likely to learn basic literacy and numeracy skills
compared with their global counterparts, which means millions are ill-prepared
for a modern economy. This educational shortfall directly impairs economic
productivity and innovation. The disparity in foundational education, for
example, has hampered the employability and entrepreneurial potential of African
youth, particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas where access to quality
education remains severely limited. Transformative initiatives, such as the
African Union’s youth-led manifesto and the World Bank’s various educational
programs, aim to reimagine education by focusing on inclusive, equitable, and
skills-oriented learning. These efforts are designed to address the immediate
needs of young people and align their capabilities with the evolving demands of
the 21st-century job market.
Indeed, analogous to the transformative impact of India’s focus on engineering
and technical education that fueled its IT sector boom, Africa’s economic
resurgence hinges on strategic investment in, and the redesign of, educational
systems to create a skilled and innovative workforce.
Lastly, regional integration, an elusive yet must-achieve milestone for the
continent, stands as the keystone in efforts to bridge the “Africa Gap.” The
African Continental Free Trade Area, which has been ratified by 48 out of 55
member states, envisions a unified market to bolster intra-African trade,
challenge economic dependency, and dismantle the historic balkanization of the
continent’s economies. As more states align with the organization’s
tariff-reduction schedules, a transformative landscape with robust intra-African
supply chains can emerge.
Within the East African Community, the example set by Kenya, which unilaterally
liberalized rules on imports from its neighbors, demonstrates a pathway for
regional heavyweights such as Nigeria and South Africa to spur similar growth by
adopting more liberal import regimes. As a consequence of such a move, the
continent’s collective bargaining power on the global stage could significantly
strengthen, mitigating dependency on external markets while amplifying Africa’s
economic sovereignty.
Closing the “Africa Gap” necessitates a multifaceted approach that prioritizes
growth, free-market principles, infrastructure development, education, political
stability, environmental sustainability, and regional cooperation.
By adopting policies that encourage economic freedom and innovation, Africa can
tap into its potential, contributing not only to its own prosperity but to
global economic stability and environmental sustainability.
As the continent stands on the precipice of change, the path to an economic
renaissance is clear: embrace growth as the engine to drive forward a better
collective future.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa
Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University
School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.
X: @HafedAlGhwell
The Turkish Wolf Expands Its Regional Dominance
Malo Pinatel/This is Beirut/January 25/2025
Power, capability and determination. These are the words that Turkish Foreign
Minister Hakan Fidan used on Friday, January 10, as he once again warned the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a Kurdish-led coalition supported by the West—of
military action if they did not hand over their weapons to the new regime in
Damascus. Only a month earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had
declared in a televised address, “We can no longer allow Syria to be divided.”
He further asserted that anyone threatening Syria “will find us standing against
them, alongside the Syrian people.”And for good reason: since the fall of Bashar
al-Assad’s regime in December, Turkey has gained unprecedented freedom of
maneuver across much of Syria. This newfound influence has further bolstered the
success of Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian civil war—first through indirect
support and later by deploying its own forces to the border regions from 2017
onward. That same year, Ankara formed the Syrian National Army (SNA), a
coalition of rebel groups serving Turkey’s strategic interests in Syria.
Pragmatism
Turkey’s role in Syria extends well beyond its direct allies, encompassing
indirect support for other actors, notably Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the
Islamist group led by Ahmad al-Shareh, who has become the country’s new power
broker. “Turkey officially lists HTS as a terrorist organization,” explains
Albert Kandemir, a doctoral researcher in international relations at Paris II -
Panthéon-Assas University. “However, it’s essential to recognize that the Syrian
National Army (SNA) has been highly porous to various jihadist factions that
continue to fragment Syria,” he adds. This dynamic was further fueled by the
fact that Idlib Province—HTS’s bastion until December 2024—also served as a
stationing ground for Turkish forces. “A pragmatic relationship has been formed,
with both the Islamist group and Ankara identifying common enemies and goals,”
explains Kandemir. He further notes, “Although Turkey has no direct ties with
the group, it’s evident that Ankara discreetly operates behind the scenes with
Syria’s new leadership and offers counsel to its leader, al-Joulani [War name of
Ahmad al-Shareh], who has become the country’s new power broker”.
The New Syrian Godfather
This display of strength is further underscored by recent events. On Tuesday,
Syria’s newly appointed Foreign Minister made his first official visit to
Turkey. “It’s quite evident that Ankara is positioning itself as the godfather
of post-Baathist Syria,” observes Kandemir, who believes Turkey is pursuing at
least three key objectives. At a broader level, Turkey seeks to stabilize its
eastern neighborhood. “Turkey’s surrounding geography is structurally
conflict-prone, so Ankara has a vested interest in working toward stability,”
notes Kandemir, “while simultaneously achieving its own security objectives.”
Domestically, the focus is on facilitating the return of Syrian refugees. “There
are currently between 3 and 4 million Syrians in Turkey, and their presence has
become a key point of criticism for the opposition against the Justice and
Development Party (AKP),” notes the researcher. This highlights how heavily the
Syrian issue weighs on Turkey’s political landscape.
The Kurdish Issue
The third, and perhaps the most crucial objective for Turkey is to nip any
ambitions the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) might have in the bud—specifically,
their desire to establish an autonomous region near Turkey's eastern provinces,
which are home to significant Kurdish populations. These provinces also harbor
the famous Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK, labeled a terrorist
organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union, has strong
ties to its Syrian counterpart, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). The PYD’s
military wing, the People's Defense Units (YPG), serves as the backbone of the
SDF. “It’s worth noting that Turkey has faced a similar situation before,” says
Kandemir. “The 2003 US invasion of Iraq helped consolidate the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG), an autonomous region along Turkey’s border,” he
explains. Ankara has since adjusted to this reality, fostering strong relations
with the KRG, whose forces regularly clash with the PKK. However, “the situation
in Syria is far more complex,” notes the researcher. “Many YPG fighters have
ties to the PKK,” he continues, emphasizing that “unlike the KRG, the PKK openly
challenges Turkey's territorial integrity.” Given this, a political resolution
to the Kurdish issue in Syria seems highly unlikely, despite initial calls from
the new Syrian government for a negotiated settlement. On Wednesday, January 22,
Syria’s Defense Minister raised the stakes, declaring that the new authorities
would “use force” if negotiations to integrate the SDF into the regular army
fail. The only significant hurdle to this outcome remains the US military
presence alongside the Kurds, a situation that the incoming Trump administration
may soon reconsider.
Sanctifying Turkish Influence
The risk of a renewed Syrian civil war remains tangible. “It is likely that
ethnico-confessional dynamics will outweigh the ideal of national unity that the
new Damascus regime claims to uphold,” observes Kandemir. In such a scenario,
“Turkey will likely seek to leverage its influence, positioning itself as a
mediator,” he suggests. However, Ankara will face substantial competition. “The
United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries will also mobilize their resources
to defend their interests,” warns the researcher. Tel Aviv, in particular, has
expressed alarm over Turkey's growing influence, as demonstrated by a recent
security cabinet meeting focused on this issue. This evolving situation could
prompt Turkey to “sanctify its influence in the regions of Syria most accessible
to it,” explains Kandemir. This area would likely cover the northern part of the
country, including Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city and its economic heart.
But most crucially, Turkey aims to secure its hegemony over Syria's
Mediterranean coastline. “For years, Ankara has sought to expand its maritime
borders, grounded in the doctrine of Mavi Vatan (Blue Homeland),” adds Kandemir.
The term refers to a doctrine developed in the 2000s, advocating for broader
territorial claims within Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These claims
encompass several Greek islands off Turkey's coast and a significant portion of
the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus. It is worth noting that the northern part of
Cyprus is under the control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), a
self-declared state recognized only by Ankara, which maintains military
occupation there. “The consolidation of Turkish positions along Syria’s
coastline would also help unlock the EEZs of the TRNC,” concludes the
researcher.
Neo-Ottomanism
Turkey’s hegemonic ambitions have sparked criticism from regional observers,
ranging from Tehran to Tel Aviv, who accuse Ankara of pursuing “Turkish
imperialism” through its “neo-Ottoman” aspirations. This term refers to a
doctrine aimed at reviving the historical influence of the Ottoman Empire, with
Turkey using a proactive diplomatic approach, strengthening cultural, economic
and religious ties, all framed within a nationalist and Islamic vision. These
accusations are further fueled by several statements from President Erdogan
directed to his supporters, including his assertion that Turkey “cannot limit
its horizons to its current borders," aiming to expand the country’s global
influence. “It is important to understand that the concept of ‘neo-Ottomanism’
primarily functions as a discursive and symbolic tool,” explains Kandemir. He
adds that its purpose is more about “legitimizing foreign policy than actually
aiming to revive the Ottoman Empire.” “From this perspective, the term is indeed
fitting.” “One of the key characteristics of the AKP (Erdogan's party, in power
since 2002) has been its strategic economic and political engagement in the
former Ottoman provinces, particularly in the Middle East, which are regarded as
natural spheres of Turkish influence,” he adds. In this context, Turkey’s
strategy is less about territorial annexation and more about consolidating its
regional hegemony— a term Kandemir deems more fitting than imperialism. “Indeed,
while imperialism is defined by territorial expansion, hegemony involves a power
imposing a regional or global order that serves its interests, which is exactly
what Turkey is striving to accomplish.”
Trump seizes the initiative with ultimatum on Ukraine
Luke Coffey/Arab News/January 25, 2025
During a presidential debate in Philadelphia last September with Vice President
Kamala Harris, Donald Trump made a bold prediction about Ukraine. In response to
a question from the moderator, Trump said: “That is a war that’s dying to be
settled. I will get it settled before I even become president.” He also
frequently claimed that he could end the war within 24 hours of entering the
Oval Office.
However, since winning the presidential election in early November, Trump has
changed his tone quite a bit on the issue of Ukraine. He even acknowledged that
the situation is more complex and harder than he had originally thought,
suggesting it could be even more difficult than brokering a ceasefire between
Israel and Hamas. While speaking to the press in the Oval Office on the evening
of Jan. 20, the first day of his second term, Trump was asked if he could still
meet his one-day deadline to bring the war to an end. He joked with journalists
that he still had “half a day” left to achieve this.
It is clear that much of what Trump said over the past year was purely for the
campaign trail. It is likely he never truly believed he could end the war
quickly, and the conflict would have to be taken seriously, a point underscored
by the people he has appointed to work on this issue. While in other government
departments, such as the Department of Justice, Department of Health and Human
Services, and the FBI, Trump has selected unconventional and unorthodox leaders,
he has chosen more traditional and orthodox appointees for his national security
adviser, secretary of state, and special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. When it
comes to Ukraine, two themes have already emerged from the second Trump
administration. First, there is a recognition that resolving Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine will take far longer than many around Trump expected. This has been
made clear through public statements by senior Trump appointees, and by Trump’s
directive giving his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, a
retired lieutenant general, 100 days to find a solution to the war.
Second, and more surprisingly, Trump and his appointees have been more
instinctively sympathetic to Ukraine’s position in the conflict. This has come
as a surprise to many, especially given the perception that some vocal Trump
supporters in the media have parroted Kremlin talking points about Ukraine.
Kellogg has publicly supported the continuation of military aid to Kyiv. Pete
Hegseth, Trump’s nominee for defense secretary, said during his confirmation
hearing: “We know who the aggressor is. We know who the good guy is. We’d like
to see (the resolution of the war be) as advantageous for the Ukrainians as
possible.” Robert Wilkie, head of Trump’s Pentagon transition team, told the BBC
in a recent interview that the president will tell Putin to stop the war in
Ukraine or “we’ll give Zelensky everything he needs.”
Zelensky has worked tirelessly on the global stage.
Trump himself has also placed significant blame on Moscow. In a message to the
Kremlin posted on social media this week, he said: “I’m going to do Russia,
whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big favor. Settle now, and
stop this ridiculous war.” He demanded that Russia agree to a deal to end the
conflict, suggesting that Moscow was the primary obstacle to progress. After
threatening further economic sanctions and tariffs targeting Russia, Trump said:
“We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always
better.”This ultimatum from the US president to his Russian counterpart has
placed Moscow in a difficult position. Some commentators and Russian media
outlets have already expressed regret that Joe Biden is no longer in the White
House. Meanwhile, while the situation remains dire for Ukraine on the front
lines, there are reasons for optimism. President Volodymyr Zelensky has played
his political cards well. While it was fashionable for Western leaders to
criticize Trump over the summer, Zelensky continued to engage with Trump’s inner
circle, securing a key meeting in late September in New York. Within 24 hours of
Trump’s election victory, the two leaders spoke by phone. On a personal level,
the two seem to get along well. Also, six months after their audacious
intervention into Russia’s Kursk region, the Ukrainians have successfully
repelled multiple Russian counterattacks, some involving soldiers from North
Korea. Kyiv’s ability to hold territory inside Russia provides valuable leverage
for any future negotiations. Zelensky has worked tirelessly on the international
stage, particularly with countries from the Global South, to craft a fair and
just peace plan. Multiple Ukrainian-led peace summits have been held in
locations such as Saudi Arabia, Malta, and Switzerland, with participation from
dozens of nations. Meanwhile, Russia has struggled to secure meaningful support
or consensus at international forums, including the recent BRICS summit in
Kazan. Ukrainian diplomacy is paying off, framing the groundwork for potential
future talks.
So, what comes next? There is no denying that Trump is sincere in his desire to
end the war. The big question is how he will achieve this. Although US foreign
aid has been suspended for 90 days pending further review by the new
administration, it has been clarified that this does not apply to military aid
for Ukraine. Open-source intelligence indicates that US cargo planes, presumably
filled with aid for Ukraine, have landed at a Polish airfield near the Ukrainian
border. For now, Trump has adopted a position of arming Ukraine, while
pressuring Russia.
Ultimately, Trump aims to appear competent and strong on the global stage. He
understands that any resolution to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that leaves
Ukraine weaker or more vulnerable will be seen as a Russian victory and an
American defeat.
One week into the Trump administration, there is cause for cautious optimism on
Ukraine. So far, so good.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
X: @LukeDCoffey
The guns have fallen silent in Gaza — but for how long?
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/January 25, 2025
Those few hours last Sunday when the start of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
was delayed were nerve-wracking. Would something go wrong again, and the firing
resume as people caught a glimpse of light at the end of a long and very dark
tunnel? When the truce eventually began after a two-and-a-half-hour delay that
felt like two-and-a-half days, there was great relief, but this was coupled with
the realization that bringing this horrific 15-month war to a complete end is
going to be neither easy nor straightforward.
The understandable total distrust between the two sides is a major factor that
will hinder any attempts to progress from this point, or even to adhere to the
terms of the first phase of the ceasefire. Both sides are operating on the
supposition that despite this agreement, each is still committed to annihilate
the other. Moreover, this truce is not the result of an organic process within
both leaderships that concluded that they had nothing to gain from continuing
the war, but was more the case of a ceasefire externally encouraged — more
accurately imposed — by the main mediators. Consequently, there is a genuine
fear of insufficient commitment on the part of the warring sides to go through
the entire process of ending the war. Instead, we can expect both sides to test
each other’s intentions, resolve, and patience every step of the way.
While the terms of the deal were hammered out with the help of the Qatari,
Egyptian, and US mediators during the Biden administration, it was Donald
Trump’s arrival on the scene that made the difference. After all, a similar
agreement was already on the table in December 2023, according to some, but as
outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted, Biden was not prepared
to use his country’s levers of power to persuade Israeli leader Benjamin
Netanyahu to accept it. Trump, on the other hand, badly wanted it done and
dusted before he entered the White House, and leaned on Netanyahu to get a
result. What is frustrating and heart-wrenching is to imagine how many lives
could have been saved, and how much suffering could have been spared had
Washington taken this approach back then. In this complex conflict, the role the
US played, together with the regional mediators, is a crucial lesson on who was
able to make a difference by at least bringing about a truce, and they will have
to do more to maintain the momentum. While there are doubts about each side’s
commitment to this agreement, the mediators, like the rest of the international
community, should remain highly vigilant and ensure that the conditions of the
three-phase deal are followed to the letter. Adding to the complexity of this
entire process is the discrepancy between what the public in Israel and
Palestine wish to see happen and what best serves their leaderships’ survival.
Recent history has shown that Netanyahu’s hold on power depends on maintaining
and manipulating constant division and malaise within Israeli society, and
keeping at least one conflict alive, albeit on the back burner. And, while in
Israel’s domestic politics there is never a shortage of contentious issues,
after ceasefires were agreed with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza,
suddenly there was a flare-up in the West Bank, settlers that were
administratively detained were released, and settler terrorism has intensified.
As much as one opposes administrative detentions because they deprive people of
their liberty without due legal process, the timing of this decision suggests
that it was meant to appease the far-right messianic settler movement and subdue
their opposition to the ceasefire deal.
We can expect both sides to test each other’s resolve and patience.
The stuttering start of the first phase, and the rather scarce details about
what has been agreed on regarding the second phase, let alone the third phase,
is creating room for those who want to derail further progress toward ending
this war and who oppose the reconstruction of Gaza. Yet, the agreement leaves
some hope for establishing a momentum. The first phase has now been achieved
with minimum hiccups, a pause in the fighting, the release of the first group of
Israeli hostages and of Palestinian prisoners, the entry into Gaza of hundreds
of lorries carrying humanitarian aid, and the slow return of displaced
Palestinians to their homes. Such hopeful signs should not lead to the
expectation that negotiations on the second phase, which are set to start on the
16th day of the ceasefire, and which will aim to agree on ending the war and
returning of the rest of the hostages, are guaranteed to proceed, let alone
bound to have a positive conclusion. The fragility of this agreement derives
also from the weakness of both political systems involved. In response to
Netanyahu’s signing the deal, the Otzma Yehudit party, which called it a
“reckless deal” and a “surrender to terrorism,” quit the coalition with much
fanfare and thereby left the government with a majority of just two in the
Knesset. Its sister party, Zionist Religious, decided to vote in favor of the
deal, but only after bemoaning how dangerous it is, and stayed in government,
but it is still threatening to jump ship should the second phase of negotiations
entail an end to the war.
As a result, the entire three-phase agreement has been left hanging by a thread.
Can Netanyahu afford to lose his majority in the Knesset, which might lead to a
general election he is unlikely to win? He would not like that in the middle of
his corruption trial. To see out at least the first two phases of the deal, he
can rely on the support of most opposition parties, but not necessarily for the
full term of this Knesset which expires at the end of 2026. It is highly
unlikely that Netanyahu could ever recover his low standing in the polls by
claiming victory in Gaza when Hamas, despite the heavy losses it has sustained,
still seems to govern the enclave, and it is even less likely that he will be
given credit for the return of the hostages, whose ordeal he not only failed to
prevent in the first place, but then for so many months blocked a ceasefire that
would have seen their release.
This leaves the possibility for Netanyahu to look for the first opportunity to
resume the war in Gaza, and by that bring Itamar Ben-Gvir, the former national
security minister, back into government — a genuine option. For Trump, this will
be an early test for his second administration and its commitment to end wars,
leaving Netanyahu to face once again the choice between the stability of his
coalition or falling out with Israel’s first and foremost international backer.
• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg