English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 25/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Am I not allowed to do what I choose with what belongs to me? Or are you envious
because I am generous?" So the last will be first, and the first will be last.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew
20/01-16/‘The kingdom of heaven is like a landowner who went out early in the
morning to hire labourers for his vineyard. After agreeing with the labourers
for the usual daily wage, he sent them into his vineyard.When he went out about
nine o’clock, he saw others standing idle in the market-place; and he said to
them, "You also go into the vineyard, and I will pay you whatever is right." So
they went. When he went out again about noon and about three o’clock, he did the
same. And about five o’clock he went out and found others standing around; and
he said to them, "Why are you standing here idle all day?" They said to him,
"Because no one has hired us." He said to them, "You also go into the vineyard."
When evening came, the owner of the vineyard said to his manager, "Call the
labourers and give them their pay, beginning with the last and then going to the
first." When those hired about five o’clock came, each of them received the
usual daily wage. Now when the first came, they thought they would receive more;
but each of them also received the usual daily wage. And when they received it,
they grumbled against the landowner, saying, "These last worked only one hour,
and you have made them equal to us who have borne the burden of the day and the
scorching heat."But he replied to one of them, "Friend, I am doing you no wrong;
did you not agree with me for the usual daily wage? Take what belongs to you and
go; I choose to give to this last the same as I give to you. Am I not allowed to
do what I choose with what belongs to me? Or are you envious because I am
generous?" So the last will be first, and the first will be last.’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 24-25/2025
Israel says holding off on exit as Lebanon army deployment under
deal stalls
Israeli refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon sparks regional concerns
Israel sees more to do on Lebanon ceasefire as deadline nears
Israeli forces to stay in south Lebanon beyond withdrawal deadline
Does Hezbollah Not Feel Ashamed of Blaming the Lebanese State for Any Delay in
Israel's Withdrawal?/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/X site/January 24, 2025
Govt. formation process: Latest developments
Washington Urges Immediate Ceasefire Extension as Tensions Continue in Southern
Lebanon
Israel prepares for possible Hezbollah fire, residents may force their way into
towns
Kuwaiti foreign minister visits Lebanon to express support
Renewed Gulf Support: Kuwait's Foreign Minister in Lebanon to Strengthen Ties
Lebanese from devastated Naqoura return home, only to find ruins
Emirates airline to resume flights to Beirut
UAE announces reopening of embassy in Beirut
Extension of Social Security Contribution Deadline to March 31, 2025
Taif Agreement Carries No Provision of Monopoly on Ministerial Portfolios/Bassam
Abou Zeid/This is Beirut/January 24/2025
Mine Clearance in Lebanon: When Will Displaced Families Return South?/Natasha
Metni Torbey/This is Beirut/January 24/2025
The Last Shot… Ending Amal-Hezbollah Grip on Finance Ministry/Johnny Kortbawi/This
is Beirut/January 24/2025
IDF said bombed apartments were Hezbollah base - but most of dead were
civilians/Nawal al-Maghafi/BBC/January 24, 2025
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 24-25/2025
Israeli drone strike kills two in major ongoing West Bank operation
Gaza life expectancy nearly half prewar levels: Study
Netanyahu suffers health challenges, court documents reveal
Israeli PM office confirms it received list of hostages to be released by Hamas
UN denounces Israel’s use of ‘war fighting’ methods in West Bank
One minute, they were celebrating Gaza’s ceasefire. The next, they were killed
Freedom is bittersweet for Palestinians released from Israeli jails
A dramatic video showing the aftermath of the incident was shared widely online.
Saudi foreign minister calls for ending Syria sanctions during talks in Damascus
ADNOC shipping rules out quick return to Red Sea, CEO says
Davos 2025 concludes with regular WEF meeting in Riyadh announced starting
spring 2026
Trump immigration enforcement memo targets migrants who entered legally under
Biden
Syria cancels port management contract with Russian firm, sources say
Saudi FM in Syria for first visit since Assad's ouster
Saudi Foreign Minister: Riyadh is engaged in negotiations to lift sanctions on
Syria and we are receiving positive signals in this regard
Al-Shara: We will not allow the division of Syria or the threat of Kurdish
militants to Turkey and efforts to reactivate the free trade agreement between
Ankara and Damascus
Syrian security forces confront an attack by elements of the former regime in
Jableh, and were able to neutralize the attackers
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources on January 24-25/2025
Question: “Is it acceptable to repeatedly pray for the same thing?”/GotQuestions.org?/January
24/2025
Turkey is more dangerous to Israel than Iran/Amine Ayoub/Ynetnews/January
24/2025
How Dearborn became symbol of pro-Iranian influence in America/Eran Lahav/Ynetnews/January
24/2025
Video/Text/Arabic & English/Gaza Ceasefire: Implications for Israel, Hamas, and
U.S. Policy/Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, Neomi Neumann/The Washington
Institute./January 25/2025
Iran Makes Second Effort to Recover IRGC Officer from Iraqi Custody/Michael
Knights/The Washington Institute,/January 24/2025
Opening the Floodgates: The Gaza Deal and Trump’s Presidency/Assaf Orion/The
Washington Institute,/January 24/2025
Expect the Unexpected with Trump and the Gulf/Simon Henderson/The Washington
Institute,/January 24/2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 24-25/2025
Israel says
holding off on exit as Lebanon army deployment under deal stalls
Ynetnews/January 24/2025
In statement PMO says Lebanon army not deployed to the south to enforce
Hezbollah's removal north of the Litani, says gradual withdrawal of troops in
cooperation with U.S. The Prime Minister's office (PMO) announced Friday that
the IDF withdrawal from Lebanon would be delayed. The military was supposed to
complete its pullout of troops by Sunday, 60 days after the cease-fire agreement
in the war with Hezbollah was signed. "The agreement was articulated with the
understanding that the process may take more than 60 days," the PMO said. "It is
conditioned on the Lebanese army is deployed in South and effectively enforcing
the terms of the deal, as Hezbollah withdraws its forces north of the Litani
River. According to the PMO, since that has not yet been fully enforced by
Lebanon, Israel will continue a gradual l its commitments under the deal, and
while Hezbollah forces would be pushed out of the region, north of the LItani
River. Since that has not been fully enforced by Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal
of troops would continue in full cooperation with the United states." The
cabinet decided on Thursday that it would react forcefully to Hezbollah's
violation of the cease-fire agreement, but the ministers do not believe this
would put the deal at risk. Although the Shi'ite terror group accused Israel of
violations and speakers for the group warned that the war could resume, it only
once used military force in response to the IDF's fire. Leaders in the
opposition also urged a delay in the IDF withdrawal, citing the danger to the
residents of the north if the cease-fire terms are not fully implemented. "The
IDF must continue and increase its actions in the face of even the slightest
Hezbollah violation of the deal. We must insist that the resident of the north
would never again be under threat," former defense minister Benny Gantz said.
"During IDF operational activity in the Saluki area last week, 769th Brigade
troops located several significant underground routes intended to be used by
Hezbollah terrorist operatives. Combat engineering and Yahalom Unit soldiers
investigated the routes before dismantling them," the IDF said in a statement on
Friday. "The troops also located a weapons cache inside a mosque, a vehicle
loaded with weapons, hundreds of mortar shells, explosives, rockets, weapons,
and additional Hezbollah military equipment." The military said other forces
located trucks carrying heavy rocket launchers, along with several weapons
storage facilities containing a large number of rockets, shoulder-fired
missiles, launchers, mortar shells, explosives, and military equipment. "All
weapons were confiscated, and the weapons storage facilities were dismantled."
Israeli refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon sparks regional concerns
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/January 24,
2025
BEIRUT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday Israeli
troops would not withdraw from the border area of southern Lebanon in accordance
with the time frame set in the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, amid claims
that the Lebanese Army has not fulfilled its obligations.
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun held talks with France and the US to urge Israel
to fully implement the agreement and withdraw within the stipulated timeframe to
prevent the situation from deteriorating. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati
also called on the US to “intervene to ensure the implementation of Resolution
1701 and Israel’s withdrawal.”On Friday, Netanyahu’s office said that “the
gradual withdrawal from Lebanon will continue in full coordination with the US
administration.”However, the Israeli Cabinet decided that “the Israeli Army will
remain in its current positions,” warning that “the Israeli Army is prepared for
any scenario and will respond harshly and immediately to any violations by
Hezbollah.”Israeli media reports said “Israel is requesting an additional
one-month delay in the withdrawal of its army from Lebanon and an extension of
the ceasefire agreement.”The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation said that “the
political leadership has instructed the army to remain in the eastern sector of
Lebanon,” noting that “the additional period before the complete withdrawal from
southern Lebanon may range from days to weeks.” The development accompanied
continued Israeli operations in the border region, particularly in the eastern
sector. Army spokesperson Avichay Adraee claimed Israeli forces “uncovered
several underground tunnel routes belonging to Hezbollah in Wadi Saluki,
intended for the party’s members to take shelter,” asserting that “these routes
have been destroyed.”
Adraee spoke about “the discovery of a stockpile of weapons inside a mosque, as
well as a vehicle loaded with weapons, and hundreds of mortar shells, improvised
explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades, rifles and other military
equipment.”He said: “In another operation by the Golani Brigade, trucks loaded
with heavy rocket launchers were found, along with weapons depots that contained
large quantities of rocket shells, mortars shells, shoulder-launched rockets,
improvised explosive devices and military equipment.”Calls intensified from
border area residents following Israel’s announcement to gather on Sunday and
demand to be allowed to return to their villages. On Thursday, Parliament
Speaker Nabih Berri was informed by US Gen. Jasper Jeffers, head of the
international committee monitoring the implementation of the ceasefire
agreement, of “Israel’s intention to extend the presence of its forces in
several locations in southern Lebanon,” according to information distributed
about the meeting. Berri told the general “that people will head to their
villages on Sunday.”In a statement, Hezbollah said that “Israel’s failure to
adhere to the 60-day deadline is an attack on sovereignty that requires the
state to act and address it, using all international means and conventions to
reclaim Lebanese territories and liberate them from the grip of occupation.”
At the political level, Lebanon received further Gulf support for its new
leadership.
Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah Ali Al-Yahya and the Gulf Cooperation
Council’s Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, along with a delegation
from the Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry and the GCC, held meetings with Lebanese
leaders in Beirut on Friday. This visit, along with the visit of Saudi Foreign
Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan less than 24 hours earlier to Beirut, where he
met with Lebanese officials and emphasized the importance of implementing
Resolution 1701, carry exceptional importance in light of the developments in
Lebanon and the wider region. During his meeting with Aoun, Al-Yahya reaffirmed
Kuwait’s “support, endorsement and commitment to standing by Lebanon to provide
all necessary aid in all fields.”He stressed “activating the Lebanese-Kuwaiti
joint committees to address the issues raised according to Lebanon’s needs” was
of the utmost importance, recalling that Lebanon “was the first country to
condemn the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait through the stance of late Prime Minister
Salim Al-Hoss.”Albudaiwi conveyed the GCC’s “unwavering support for Lebanon and
its sovereignty,” emphasizing its commitment to “the non-interference in
Lebanon’s internal affairs.” He affirmed that “the GCC is moving toward helping
Lebanon in terms of economic development projects after implementing the
intended reforms,” noting that “a Gulf program for Lebanon is set to be
developed in cooperation with the future Lebanese government.” Aoun said he
hoped “for Kuwaitis in particular and the Gulf people in general to come back
and visit Lebanon,” stressing that “the Arab countries’ unity is the cornerstone
for confronting current challenges.” The president affirmed that “after forming
the government, we will establish new foundations for cooperation with the Gulf
countries,” adding that “the main titles of these new foundations were included
in the inauguration speech, which set the rules for building the state.”Both
Gulf officials met with Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, who affirmed “the
importance of working to confront the internal challenges faced by Lebanon
during this period.” Salam stressed “the significance of restoring Lebanese-Gulf
relations, which he sees as a priority in the near future.”
The Gulf officials also met with caretaker Mikati and Berri.
The Kuwaiti minister and the GCC secretary-general held a joint press conference
with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habibi following a meeting. Al-Yahya
said: “We reaffirm our solidarity with Lebanon, and our firm commitment to
supporting its sovereignty and territorial unity, as well as the importance of
implementing the UN Security Council resolutions, including Resolution 1701, and
the Taif Agreement. “We look forward to building the best relations with Lebanon
and strengthening security and stability in the region,” he added. Al-Yahya
affirmed that “the GCC had called for the full adherence to the ceasefire
agreement and the cessation of Israeli hostilities against Lebanon and the UN
peacekeeping forces,” pointing out “the importance of the role played by the
army and the security forces to achieve security in the country.” He said: “We
encourage the implementation of the intended reforms. There’s a historical
chance to overcome the past challenges and start the reconstruction and
development process in a way that achieves the Lebanese people’s prosperity
aspirations.”Al-Budaiwi stated: “We are very pleased with what we heard from the
Lebanese leadership and its keenness to achieve the needed reforms and the
internationally-recommended programs to ensure the country’s stability. “These
reforms constitute the right path toward Lebanon’s recovery. We believe in the
necessity to implement these mandatory reforms and the security council’s
resolutions, namely Resolution 1701, and the Taif Agreement.”
He reiterated the final communique of the ministerial committee’s extraordinary
meeting in regard to supporting the five-nation group on Lebanon.
Israel sees more to do on
Lebanon ceasefire as deadline nears
Reuters/January 24, 2025
Summary
60-day period set out in US-brokered truce ends on Sunday
Israeli government sees 'much more work to do'
Hezbollah says exceeding 60-day period would violate deal.
Hezbollah also urges pressure on Israel
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Israel said on Thursday the terms of a
ceasefire with Hezbollah were not being implemented fast enough and there was
more work to do, while the Iran-backed group urged pressure to ensure Israeli
troops leave south Lebanon by Sunday as set out in the deal.
The deal stipulates that Israeli troops withdraw from south Lebanon, Hezbollah
remove fighters and weapons from the area and Lebanese troops deploy there - all
within a 60-day timeframe which will conclude on Sunday at 4 a.m. (0200 GMT).
The deal, brokered by the United States and France, ended more than a year of
hostilities triggered by the Gaza war. The fighting peaked with a major Israeli
offensive that displaced more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon and left
Hezbollah severely weakened. "There have been positive movements where the
Lebanese army and UNIFIL have taken the place of Hezbollah forces, as stipulated
in the agreement," Israeli government spokesmen David Mencer told reporters,
referring to UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. "We've also made clear that these
movements have not been fast enough, and there is much more work to do," he
said, affirming that Israel wanted the agreement to continue. Mencer did not
directly respond to questions about whether Israel had requested an extension of
the deal or say whether Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon after Monday's
deadline.
Hezbollah said in a statement that there had been leaks talking about Israel
postponing its withdrawal beyond the 60-day period, and that any breach of the
agreement would be unacceptable. The statement said that possibility required
everyone, especially Lebanese political powers, to pile pressure on the states
which sponsored the deal to ensure "the implementation of the full (Israeli)
withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army to the last inch of Lebanese
territory and the return of the people to their villages quickly". Any delay
beyond the 60 days would mark a blatant violation of the deal with which the
Lebanese state would have to deal "through all means and methods guaranteed by
international charters" to recover Lebanese land "from the occupation's
clutches," Hezbollah said. Israel said its campaign against Hezbollah aimed to
secure the return home of tens of thousands of people forced to leave their
homes in northern Israel by Hezbollah rocket fire. It inflicted major blows on
Hezbollah during the conflict, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and thousands
of the group's fighters and destroying much of its arsenal. The group was
further weakened in December when its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, was toppled,
cutting its overland supply route from Iran.French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel
Barrot, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, said Israel
had put an end to hostilities and was removing its forces from Lebanon, and that
the Lebanese army had gone to locations of Hezbollah ammunition stores and
destroyed them. He also indicated there was more to do to shore up the
ceasefire. "Are we done? No. We will need more time to achieve results," he
said.
Three diplomats said on Thursday it looked like Israeli forces would still be in
some parts of southern Lebanon after the 60-day mark. A senior Lebanese
political source said President Joseph Aoun had been in contact with U.S. and
French officials to urge Israel to complete the withdrawal within the stipulated
timeframe. The Lebanese government has told U.S. mediators that Israel's failure
to withdraw on time could complicate the Lebanese army's deployment, and this
would be a blow to diplomatic efforts and the optimistic atmosphere in Lebanon
since Aoun was elected president on Jan. 9.
Israeli forces to stay in south Lebanon beyond withdrawal deadline
Middle Eastcategory · January 24, 2025
JERUSALEM, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon
beyond a Sunday deadline stipulated in a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah because
the terms of the agreement have not been fully implemented, the Israeli prime
minister's office said on Friday.
Under the agreement, which came into effect on Nov. 27, Hezbollah weapons and
fighters must be removed from areas south of the Litani river and Israeli troops
should withdraw as the Lebanese military deploys into the region, all within a
60-day timeframe due to conclude on Sunday at 4 a.m. (0200 GMT).
The deal, brokered by the United States and France, ended more than a year of
hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. The fighting peaked
with a major Israeli offensive that left Hezbollah severely weakened and
displaced more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon.
Netanyahu's office said in a statement that the Israeli military's withdrawal
process was "contingent on the Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and
fully and effectively enforcing the agreement, while Hezbollah withdraws beyond
the Litani". "Since the ceasefire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by
the Lebanese state, the gradual withdrawal process will continue, in full
coordination with the United States," the statement said. There was no immediate
comment from Lebanon or Hezbollah. The White House did not immediately respond
to a request for comment. Hezbollah said on Thursday that any delay of Israel's
withdrawal would be an unacceptable breach of the agreement, with which the
Lebanese state would have to deal "through all means and methods guaranteed by
international charters". Israel said its campaign against Hezbollah aimed to
secure the return home of tens of thousands of people forced to leave their
homes in northern Israel by Hezbollah rocket fire. It inflicted major blows on
Hezbollah during the conflict, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and thousands
of the group's fighters and destroying much of its arsenal. Hezbollah was
further weakened in December when its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, was toppled,
cutting its overland supply route from Iran.
Does Hezbollah Not Feel Ashamed of Blaming the Lebanese
State for Any Delay in Israel's Withdrawal?
(Free translation by: Elias Bejjani)
By Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/X site/January 24, 2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139383/
Does Hezbollah not feel ashamed of holding the Lebanese state responsible for
any delay in Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese territory, while it is the
primary culprit for igniting the war that devastated the country? How can a
party that chose to gamble with the lives of its people and the security of its
nation justify burdening the state with the consequences of a disaster it
caused?
According to the ceasefire agreement, Israel was supposed to withdraw by January
26. However, it informed the United States of its desire to extend the
withdrawal deadline by an additional month. Yet Hezbollah, instead of owning up
to its responsibility for the dire situation it brought upon Lebanon, resorts to
threats of returning to war, declaring that any delay would be considered a
severe breach and escalation.
But the real question is: who gave Hezbollah the right to speak on behalf of
Lebanon and single-handedly hold the state accountable for the consequences of
its recklessness? If it weren’t for dragging Lebanon into a destructive war
under the guise of “supporting Gaza,” Israel wouldn’t have invaded Lebanese
territory in the first place. This party is responsible for the destruction, for
displacing thousands, killing hundreds, and for the collapse of Lebanon’s
economy and security. Enough adventures, enough crimes, and enough gambling with
the future of a great nation and a kindhearted people.
Let the Lebanese state breathe without being shackled by your agendas and
conflicts. Let the people rebuild what your policies have destroyed. Lebanon
needs peace, not threats and intimidation. Either remain silent or leave if you
truly care about the welfare of this country.
Govt. formation process:
Latest developments
Naharnet/January
24, 2025
and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam are “not opposed to giving the finance
portfolio to the Shiite community, but not to the Shiite Duo,” MTV reported on
Friday. Moreover, MTV said that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan
told Salam in their meeting Thursday of “the need to conduct reforms.”
“The PM-designate agreed with him and stressed the importance of political,
financial and administrative reform,” MTV added. Al-Akhbar newspaper meanwhile
reported that Salam has told visitors that he has “agreed to keep the finance
portfolio with Shiites” and that he will “choose the name from among several
candidates.” “He is also studying how to settle the issue of the candidates
nominated for the defense and interior portfolios, amid President Aoun’s demand
that they be under his supervision in one way or another,” al-Akhbar added.
Washington Urges Immediate Ceasefire Extension as Tensions Continue in Southern
Lebanon
This is Beirut/January
24, 2025
As the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon nears its expiration on
Monday, January 27, Washington has called for an urgent extension, urging
Lebanese authorities to consider a temporary and short-term prolongation. The
call comes as Tel Aviv announced its intention to extend its military withdrawal
from southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day period originally outlined in the truce
agreement. In a statement to Al Arabiya English on Friday, Brian Hughes,
spokesperson for the US National Security Council, emphasized the urgent need
for an extension. He noted, “A temporary, short-term extension of the ceasefire
is crucial to ensure that Hezbollah does not pose a threat to the Lebanese
people or their neighbors.” Hughes also confirmed that the US is working with
its allies to finalize the terms of the extension.
President Donald Trump, according to Hughes, remains committed to the safe
return of Israeli citizens to northern Israel and is also offering support to
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and the newly formed Lebanese government. Hughes
expressed approval that Israeli forces had already begun withdrawing from the
central sector of southern Lebanon, in line with the ceasefire agreement.
However, earlier on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office
confirmed that the Israeli military would extend its withdrawal beyond the
original 60-day deadline, citing Lebanon's failure to fully implement the terms
of the ceasefire agreement. This announcement followed Tel Aviv’s assertion that
the Lebanese government had not met its obligations, particularly regarding
Hezbollah’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Lebanese forces were to deploy alongside UN
peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces began their phased pullback.
While Israel has evacuated the coastal areas, it continues to maintain a
presence in more easterly regions of the country.
In response, Netanyahu’s office explained that the phased withdrawal would
continue in consultation with the US, noting that one of the key stipulations of
the agreement—Lebanese Army deployment in southern Lebanon—has not been fully
met. The statement also reiterated that Hezbollah must vacate areas north of the
Litani River, a requirement that has yet to be fulfilled.
In a press briefing, Hughes further clarified that the US continues to monitor
the situation and support both Israeli and Lebanese efforts to ensure the safety
and security of their citizens. He specifically highlighted the importance of
preventing any further instability in the region, which remains on edge after
more than two months of intense conflict.
Meanwhile, Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun had previously called for Israel to
adhere to the original terms of the ceasefire, demanding a complete withdrawal
of Israeli forces by the agreed-upon deadline. He also condemned continued
Israeli violations, including air and ground operations, which have exacerbated
tensions along the border. In particular, President Aoun denounced Israel’s
demolition of homes and destruction of border villages, actions he believes
violate the spirit of the ceasefire agreement.
Hezbollah, for its part, has warned that any Israeli failure to meet the January
27 deadline would constitute a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire terms. The
militant group has urged the Lebanese government to take “all necessary
measures” to enforce the agreement. While Hezbollah has refrained from
escalating its military operations, it has pointed to Israeli actions, including
airstrikes and ground operations, as violations that should not go unaddressed.
On January 22, Israeli forces conducted additional raids in southern Lebanon,
targeting Hezbollah positions and military infrastructure. The Israeli Defense
Forces (IDF) spokesperson reported a series of airstrikes aimed at neutralizing
threats and destroying Hezbollah weapon depots and observation posts. However,
the specifics of the locations targeted were not disclosed.
As the ceasefire deadline approaches, the situation in southern Lebanon remains
precarious. The United States, Israel, and Lebanon are all navigating a delicate
balance between upholding the terms of the ceasefire and ensuring long-term
stability in the region. With Israel's military withdrawal ongoing and Lebanon's
political landscape in flux, the next steps will be crucial in determining
whether peace can be sustained or if further escalation looms.
Israel prepares for possible Hezbollah fire, residents may
force their way into towns
Naharnet/January 24, 2025
The Israeli army is preparing to face “symbolic gunfire” by Hezbollah toward the
occupied Shebaa Farms in response to the Israeli army’s decision to keep its
forces in south Lebanon’s eastern sector past the Sunday deadline, Israeli media
reports said. Al-Akhbar newspaper meanwhile reported that the Lebanese Army and
UNIFIL peacekeepers have gone on alert to deal with possible incidents at dawn
Sunday should Lebanese residents insist on entering the border towns where
Israel’s forces are still deployed. Hezbollah said Thursday that it will be the
responsibility of the Lebanese state to act and press the countries sponsoring
the ceasefire agreement should Israel delay its military pullout from south
Lebanon.
Kuwaiti foreign minister visits Lebanon to express support
Naharnet/January 24, 2025
Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah al-Yahya began an official visit Friday to
Lebanon, after the country elected a new president and appointed a
PM-designate.“Our visit is for support, assistance and expressing our commitment
to stand by Lebanon,” al-Yahya told President Joseph Aoun in a meeting in Baabda.
“We call for activating the joint Lebanese-Kuwaiti committees to address the
current issues according to the Lebanese needs,” the minister added. Gulf
Cooperation Council chief Jassem al-Budaiwi, who accompanied al-Yahya to Baabda,
for his part said that the GCC “backs Lebanon, its sovereignty and
non-interference in its affairs.” He also called for “preparing a Gulf program
for Lebanon in coordination with the Lebanese government.”President Aoun for his
part said that “after the formation of the new government, there will be
communication with the Gulf counties to lay out new foundations for cooperation,
whose broad lines were mentioned in the inaugural speech that laid out the bases
for building the state.”
Renewed Gulf Support: Kuwait's Foreign Minister in Lebanon to Strengthen Ties
This is Beirut/January
24, 2025
Renewed Gulf Support: Kuwait's Foreign Minister in Lebanon to Strengthen Ties
Kuwaiti delegation led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdullah Ali Al Yahya,
with President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace on January 24, 2025. ©Lebanese
Presidency In a bolstered show of Gulf support for Lebanon, Kuwait's Foreign
Minister Abdullah Ali Al Yahya embarked on an official visit to Beirut following
the recent visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. Minister Al Yahya
arrived in Beirut on Friday morning alongside a delegation. He kickstarted his
visit with a meeting at Baabda Palace with President Joseph Aoun. The Kuwaiti
delegation was welcomed at Rafic Hariri International Airport by caretaker
Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib. Highlighting the urgency of
revitalizing the Lebanese-Kuwaiti joint committees to tackle pertinent issues
aligned with Lebanon's unique requirements, Minister Al Yahya underscored, “Our
visit is a gesture of support to Lebanon, reaffirming our commitment to stand by
its side.”President Aoun reciprocated the sentiment, expressing his faith in
Kuwait's enduring support for Lebanon. “I trust in your solidarity with the
Lebanese people. They eagerly await your return, ready to embrace you with open
arms in the spirit of camaraderie and unity.”
Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jassim Al-Budaiwi also arrived in
Beirut early this morning. During his meeting with President Aoun, he reaffirmed
his unwavering support for Lebanon, its sovereignty and the principle of
non-interference in its internal affairs. He also emphasized the Gulf's
commitment to establishing a specific program for Lebanon, in close
collaboration with Lebanese authorities.
Lebanese from devastated Naqoura return home, only to find
ruins
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/January
24, 2025
Residents returned Thursday to the town of Naqoura near the Lebanon-Israel
border, which hosts the headquarters of the U.N. peacekeeping force, after
Israeli forces withdrew from the area. Long lines of cars, some waving Hezbollah
flags, inched along the coastal road. The Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers
had reopened roads, cleared mines and removed unexploded ordnance from
residential neighborhoods. Residents of the southern town were among over 1.2
million Lebanese displaced during the Israel-Hezbollah war. Returning residents
found their homes and businesses along the main road completely destroyed, some
looted. Water and electricity networks lay in ruins. Mosques, health centers and
the municipality building were damaged. Rabab Yazbeck, surveyed the collapsed
remains of her home. “Thank God — the most important thing is that we’re back to
our land.” The Israeli military was still deployed in parts of Lebanon's south,
days ahead of a January 26 deadline to fully implement the terms of the truce.
The deal gave the parties 60 days to withdraw -- Israel back across the border,
and Hezbollah farther north -- as the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers
redeployed to the south. The Lebanese military had asked residents of Naqoura
not to go back home for their own safety after Israel's army issued similar
orders, but in spite of the danger, Mayor Abbas Awada returned to inspect the
destruction. "Naqoura has become a disaster zone of a town... the bare
necessities of life are absent here," he said in front of the damaged town hall,
adding he was worried a lack of funds after years of economic crisis would
hamper reconstruction. "We need at least three years to rebuild," he continued,
as a small bulldozer worked to remove rubble near the municipal offices.
Lebanese soldiers deployed in coastal Naqoura after Israeli troops pulled out of
the country's southwest on January 6, though they remain in the southeast. The
Israelis' withdrawal from Naqoura left behind a sea of wreckage. Opposite the
town hall, an old tree has been uprooted. Empty, damaged houses line streets
filled with rubble. Most of the widespread destruction occurred after the truce
took hold, Awada said. "The Israeli army entered the town after the ceasefire"
and "destroyed the houses", he said. "Before the ceasefire, 35 percent of the
town was destroyed, but after the truce, 90 percent of it" was demolished, he
added, mostly with controlled explosions and bulldozers.
Smell of death -
Under the November 27 ceasefire deal, which ended more than a year of
hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese army has 60 days to
deploy alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers in south Lebanon as Israel withdraws. At
the same time, Hezbollah is required to pull its forces north of the Litani
River, around 30 kilometers from the border, and dismantle any remaining
military infrastructure it has in the south. Both sides have accused each other
of violations since the truce began. Around the nearby UNIFIL headquarters,
houses are still intact, but almost everywhere else in Naqoura lies destruction.
Facades are shorn from bombed-out houses, while others are reduced to crumpled
heaps, abandoned by residents who had fled for their lives, leaving behind
furniture, clothes and books.
AFP saw a completely destroyed school, banana plantations that had withered away
and unharvested oranges on trees, their blossoming flowers barely covering the
smell of rotting bodies. On Tuesday, the civil defense agency said it had
recovered two bodies from the rubble in Naqoura. Lebanese soldiers who patrolled
the town found an unexploded rocket between two buildings, AFP saw. In October
2023, Hezbollah began firing across the border into Israel in support of its
ally Hamas, a day after the Palestinian group launched its attack on southern
Israel that triggered the Gaza war. An Israeli army spokesperson told AFP that
its forces were committed to the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. They said the
army was working "to remove threats to the State of Israel and its citizens, in
full accordance with international law".
'We want the wars to end'
On the coastal road to Naqoura UNIFIL and the Lebanese army have set up
checkpoints. Hezbollah's yellow flags fluttered in the wind, but no fighters
could be seen. Twenty kilometers to the north, in Tyre, Fatima Yazbeck waits
impatiently in a reception center for the displaced for her chance to return
home. She fled Naqoura 15 months ago, and since then, "I haven't been back", she
said, recounting her sadness at learning her house had been destroyed. Ali Mehdi,
a volunteer at the reception center, said his home was destroyed as well. "My
house was only damaged at first," he said. "But after the truce, the Israelis
entered Naqoura and destroyed the houses, the orchards and the roads." In the
next room, Mustafa Al-Sayed has been waiting with his large family for more than
a year to return to his southern village of Beit Leef. He had been forced to
leave once before, during the previous war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
"Do we have to take our families and flee every 20 years?" he asked. "We want a
definitive solution, we want the wars to end."
Emirates airline to resume flights to Beirut
Agence France Presse/January
24, 2025
Emirates airline will resume flights to Beirut on February 1 after a four-month
suspension triggered by conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, a statement said
on Friday. The Middle East's biggest airline will first offer a daily return
flight and scale up to two services per day from April 1, the statement said.
Emirates will also resume a daily flight to the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, from
February 1, it added. The Dubai-based, state-owned carrier was one of several
regional airlines to suspend Beirut services in late September as tensions
soared between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. A truce came into effect on
November 27, ending over a year of hostilities.
UAE announces reopening of embassy in Beirut
This is Beirut/With AFP/January
24, 2025
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Friday that it has reopened its
embassy in Lebanon, years after it was closed in solidarity with Saudi Arabia.
According to state news agency WAM, the Emirati embassy in Beirut "has
officially resumed diplomatic activities." Omar Obaid al-Shamsi, Undersecretary
of the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was quoted by WAM as saying, "The
reopening of the embassy represents an important step in advancing bilateral
cooperation between the two countries." In October 2021, the UAE, along with
several other Gulf states, recalled its diplomats from Lebanon in solidarity
with Saudi Arabia following a Lebanese minister’s criticism of the Saudi-led
military intervention in Yemen.
The UAE-Lebanon relationship had been strained for years, primarily due to the
growing influence of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon.
However, in early January, Lebanon appointed its new president, Joseph Aoun,
ending a years-long political deadlock, which followed a significant blow to
Hezbollah’s leadership after its war with Israel. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed
bin Zayed Al Nahyan congratulated Aoun on his election, expressing hope for
"mutual cooperation and prosperity for both nations and their peoples."
Extension of Social Security Contribution Deadline to March 31, 2025
This is Beirut/January
24, 2025
The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has extended the deadline for
institutions to pay their social security contributions to March 31, 2025. This
extension covers contributions originally due for September, October, November
and December 2024. This decision follows a series of field visits by NSSF
Director Mohammad Karaki to different southern regions, including Nabatieh and
Tyre. The visits aimed to assess the damage to Social Security offices caused by
recent Israeli attacks and to directly address the concerns of NSSF
beneficiaries and employees. During his visits, Karaki recognized the
difficulties faced by both citizens and institutions and committed to
implementing measures to alleviate the effects of the ongoing crisis. In
response to extensive feedback, particularly from the productive and educational
sectors, and to uphold the NSSF’s key role in maintaining social security,
Karaki introduced a series of measures aimed at supporting the economy,
including streamlining the payment process for institutions' social security
contributions. In this context, Karaki reiterated his commitment to advancing
efforts initiated since the outbreak of the war.
Taif Agreement Carries No Provision of Monopoly on
Ministerial Portfolios
Bassam Abou Zeid/This is Beirut/January 24/2025
For some in Lebanon, everything takes precedence over the law and the
Constitution. Terms such as the National Pact, consensus, custom or even the
“minutes of the Taif Agreement” are frequently misused to justify allocating the
Ministry of Finance to the Shiite duo Amal-Hezbollah. This is not the first time
the minutes of the Taif Agreement have been brought up. Debates over its content
have resurfaced repeatedly, particularly regarding the President of the
Republic's role in government formation, the designation of the Prime Minister
and the President's part in mandatory parliamentary consultations. However,
these discussions have never led to conclusions, as the minutes remained with
the late Speaker of Parliament Hussein al-Husseini, who never disclosed them.
The Taif Agreement was incorporated into the Constitution, and no clause in the
Constitution allocates specific ministries to particular communities. None of
the deputies who participated in the Taif negotiations mentioned any implicit
agreement reserving the Ministry of Finance exclusively for the Shiite
community. The facts speak for themselves: since Taif, the Ministry of Finance
has been led by Shiite ministers eight times and by non-Shiites 12 times,
including late Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, who played a central role in the
Taif negotiations. This raises critical questions: Why was the Ministry of
Finance repeatedly granted to Shiites? Why didn’t parliamentarians from other
communities oppose or request specific ministries—for example, Foreign Affairs
for the Maronites or Interior for the Sunnis? Did Christian MPs compromise too
much, even as the President's powers were curtailed? Why did the Hezbollah-Amal
duo occasionally agree to forego the Ministry of Finance for Shiites? Was it a
concession or merely an exchange of interests? And why do the Shiites seem to
hold a superior position, making them solely entitled to head the Ministry of
Finance? Are they truly the only group with the necessary expertise to manage
it? Among the parliamentarians who attended the Taif negotiations, only a few
remain alive today. Some of them have stated they do not recall any agreement
reserving the Ministry of Finance for Shiites. If such a decision had been made,
it would have been explicitly included in the National Reconciliation Agreement
or the amended Constitution. Others suggest the topic may have been raised at
the time, but was ultimately rejected—just as the Druze community's request to
reserve the presidency of the State Council was also turned down. Publishing the
minutes of the Taif Agreement could therefore be crucial to affirm that such
proposals were indeed dismissed and never formalized.
Mine Clearance in Lebanon: When Will Displaced Families
Return South?
Natasha Metni Torbey/This is Beirut/January 24/2025
Haunted by thousands of landmines and unexploded ammunition, Lebanon faces a
significant challenge: clearing a territory scarred by decades of conflict, the
most recent being the 2024 war between Hezbollah and Israel. Triggered by
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Tel Aviv, the conflict spilled over into
Lebanon under the banner of “unity of fronts,” reigniting the issue. Today, new
areas are contaminated with landmines and unexploded munitions, primarily
affecting border regions and rural areas, which thousands of Lebanese were
forced to flee to escape the violence.
The Scale of the Problem: How Much Land Remains Contaminated?
Identifying the exact extent of mine-contaminated areas in Lebanon remains a
complex task, rendered more difficult by ongoing military operations,
particularly along the Lebanese border. “By the end of 2023, we had cleared 84%
of the contaminated areas,” an informed source said. However, they indicate that
at that time, “demining teams were still tasked with clearing approximately 16
million square meters (out of a total of 26.68 million square meters at the
start of 2023) that were still at risk.” Field studies are currently underway to
reassess the situation and develop a new plan. Nonetheless, “demining operations
are ongoing and proceeding alongside reassessment missions,” the source added.
Experts estimate that around 25% of the Lebanese territory continues to be
affected by landmines and unexploded ammunition, with the most severe impacts
observed in southern regions, particularly along the border with Israel and in
the Beqaa Valley. The most heavily impacted areas are those adjacent to the Blue
Line and rural regions in the south and east of the country.
Key Players in Mine Clearance in Lebanon
Mine clearance in Lebanon involves various stakeholders, including state
institutions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL).
The Lebanese Mine Action Center (LMAC), operating under the Ministry of Defense,
is tasked with coordinating demining efforts. This structure collaborates with
NGOs and international players to ensure the safety and reconstruction of
contaminated areas. Among the NGOs playing a crucial role in demining operations
are MAG (Mines Advisory Group), an international organization specialized in
mine detection, clearance and safety education and Handicap International, which
has been operating in Lebanon since 2007, as well as Danish Church Aid and
Norwegian People Aid.. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) also
plays a role in mine clearance operations, particularly along the Blue Line.
While its primary mission is to monitor the cessation of hostilities, UNIFIL
assists in neutralizing mines and explosive devices.
The Demining Process
Mine clearance in Lebanon follows a meticulously regulated procedure, with
several key stages. A typical process begins with the identification of
contaminated areas. Geospatial surveys and field inspections are then conducted
to locate high-risk zones, while information is gathered from local communities
and authorities to pinpoint suspected sites. Once an area is identified, experts
carry out a risk assessment. This includes analyzing the types of mines present
and determining the safest techniques required for neutralization. Various
methods are employed by mine clearance teams to locate and defuse mines,
including metal detectors, mine detection dogs, and other manual and mechanical
methods. Mines are neutralized through controlled detonation or safe removal.
Once the mines are removed, further checks and inspections are conducted to
ensure no residual risks remain. Clearance techniques are then applied to make
the area safe and accessible for local residents. “An essential part of demining
is educating the local population about the dangers of mines, which is why
safety education programs are set up to prevent accidents,” stressed a security
source.
Duration of Demining Operations
Mine clearance operations can span from a few months to several years, depending
on the size of the area to be cleared and the complexity of the terrain. After
major conflicts such as that of 2024, the process is even more stretched due to
the need to clear newly contaminated areas. Furthermore, hard-to-reach urban or
rural regions often complicate operations. Given the slow pace of interventions
and the high cost of necessary equipment, it is estimated that Lebanon would
need around a year to fully clear all mines from the land and unexploded
ammunition, according to the source. “Everything also depends on the funding
required for this. Many authorities have promised to allocate funds for mine
clearance, but we have received nothing so far,” the security source added.
Closely linked to demining operations is the critical issue of the return of
displaced Lebanese to their homes, a matter of great concern. During the 2024
war, many inhabitants of border regions, notably those nearest to the border
with Israel, were forced to flee their villages. Today, ongoing hostilities,
coupled with the fear of mines and unexploded ammunition, hinder their swift
return. Resolving this intricate problem requires the full implementation of the
ceasefire agreement and the completion of demining operations, which is expected
by next year.
The Last Shot… Ending Amal-Hezbollah Grip on Finance
Ministry
Johnny Kortbawi/This is Beirut/January 24/2025
The Ministry of Finance is not just a mere step in government formation. Speaker
Nabih Berri has reopened the “Taif” files, reflecting on a past that no longer
has anyone to endorse or oppose. The Ministry of Finance was indeed part of the
Taif Agreement discussions, with a proposal to assign it to the Shiite
community. However, this proposal was never finalized, and over the years, the
Ministry has shifted between various religious communities – from Sunnis to
Christians to Shiites. It was never monopolized by any one group, and there was
no attempt to preserve it as a constitutional gain for any party, in order to
avoid solidifying any practices related to the so-called “third signature.”With
Nawaf Salam’s appointment, the Ministry of Finance has gained greater
importance, almost as if it represents the entire government. While other
ministries may hold the potential for significant reforms and a broad renewal of
governance, if the Ministry of Finance becomes entangled in sectarian disputes
due to its association with the Amal-Hezbollah duo’s bloc, and if its approval
is required for every project, we will be facing a much worse situation than
before.
Liberating the Ministry of Finance from the control of the Amal-Hezbollah duo –
rather than the Shiite community as a whole – marks a third victory following
the presidential election and the designation of the prime minister. Hezbollah
no longer holds the power to impose its choices, conditions or vetoes. It failed
to impose Sleiman Frangieh, failed to reinstate Najib Mikati, and now, it is
expected to lose its ability to block the government unless its demands are
addressed in a reasonable manner. This is not about undermining the Shiite
community, which is why Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has expressed his
readiness to accept a Shiite nominee for the Ministry, appointed by both the
president and the prime minister-designate. Perpetuating Amal-Hezbollah
dominance would further undermine the Shiite community, which has already had to
bear the heaviest consequences and a far greater price than other communities as
a result of such dominance.
Liberating the Ministry of Finance from Amal and Hezbollah’s grip also frees
Lebanon and the Shiite community as a whole. Ultimately, the focus should be on
managing the Ministry with those who can best serve the national budget, reduce
the deficit and implement economic policies that revitalize the country and
attract investment. If this is achieved, it will benefit all Lebanese,
regardless of religion.
IDF said bombed apartments
were Hezbollah base - but most of dead were civilians
Nawal al-Maghafi - Senior international investigations correspondent, BBC World
Service/January 24, 2025
Julia Ramadan was terrified - the war between Israel and Hezbollah was
escalating and she'd had a nightmare that her family home was being bombed. When
she sent her brother a panicked voice note from her apartment in Beirut, he
encouraged her to join him in Ain El Delb, a sleepy village in southern Lebanon.
"It's safe here," he reassured her. "Come stay with us until things calm
down."Earlier that month, Israel intensified air campaigns against Hezbollah in
Lebanon, in response to escalating rocket attacks by the Iran-backed armed group
which had killed civilians, and displaced tens of thousands more from homes in
northern Israel. Ashraf was confident their family's apartment block would be a
haven, so Julia joined him. But the next day, on 29 September, it was subject to
this conflict's deadliest single Israeli attack. Struck by Israeli missiles, the
entire six-storey building collapsed, killing 73 people.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says the building was targeted because it was a
Hezbollah "terrorist command centre" and it "eliminated" a Hezbollah commander.
It added that "the overwhelming majority" of those killed in the strike were
"confirmed to be terror operatives". But a BBC Eye investigation verified the
identity of 68 of the 73 people killed in the attack and uncovered evidence
suggesting just six were linked to Hezbollah's military wing. None of those we
identified appeared to hold a senior rank. The BBC's World Service also found
that the other 62 were civilians - 23 of them children. Among the dead were
babies only a few months old, like Nouh Kobeissi in apartment -2B. In apartment
-1C, school teacher Abeer Hallak was killed alongside her husband and three
sons. Three floors above, Amal Hakawati died along with three generations of her
family - her husband, children and two granddaughters.
Ashraf and Julia had always been close, sharing everything with each other. "She
was like a black box, holding all my secrets," he says. On the afternoon of 29
September, the siblings had just returned home from handing out food to families
who had fled the fighting. Hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon had been
displaced by the war. Ashraf was in the shower, and Julia was sitting in the
living room with their father, helping him upload a video to social media. Their
mother, Janan, was in the kitchen, clearing up.
Then, without warning, they heard a deafening bang. The entire building shook,
and a massive cloud of dust and smoke poured into their apartment.
"I shouted, 'Julia! Julia!,'" says Ashraf.
"She replied, 'I'm here.'
"I looked at my dad, who was struggling to get up from the sofa because of an
existing injury to his leg, and saw my mother running toward the front door."
Julia's nightmare was playing out in real life.
"Julia was hyperventilating, crying so hard on the sofa. I was trying to calm
her down and told her we needed to get out. Then, there was another attack."
Ashraf, along with many others, was trapped under the rubble. He began calling
out, but the only voice he could hear was that of his father, who told him he
could still hear Julia and that she was alive. Neither of them could hear
Ashraf's mother.
Ashraf sent a voice note to friends in the neighbourhood to alert them. The next
few hours were agonising. He could hear rescuers sifting through the debris -
and residents wailing as they discovered loved ones dead. "I just kept thinking,
please, God, not Julia. I can't live this life without Julia."
Ashraf was finally pulled from the rubble hours later, with only minor injuries.
He discovered his mother had been rescued but died in hospital. Julia had
suffocated under the rubble. His father later told him Julia's last words were
calls for her brother. In November, a ceasefire deal was agreed between Israel
and Hezbollah with the aim of ending the conflict. The deal gives a 60-day
deadline for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for Hezbollah
to withdraw its forces and weapons north of the Litani River. As this 26 January
deadline approaches, we sought to find out more about the deadliest single
Israeli attack on Lebanon in years.
In the apartment below Julia and Ashraf's, Hawraa and Ali Fares had been hosting
family members displaced by the war. Among them was Hawraa's sister Batoul, who,
like Julia, had arrived the previous day - with her husband and two young
children. They had fled intense bombardment near the Lebanon-Israel border, in
areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence. "We hesitated about where to go,"
says Batoul. "And then I told my husband, 'Let's go to Ain El Delb. My sister
said their building was safe and that they couldn't hear any bombing nearby.'"
Batoul's husband Mohammed Fares was killed in the Ain El Delb attack. A pillar
fell on Batoul and her children. She says no-one responded to her calls for
help. She finally managed to lift it alone, but her four-year-old daughter
Hawraa had been fatally crushed. Miraculously, her baby Malak survived.
Hawraa, and her cousins Hassan and Hussein, photographed playing together.
Hawraa is wearing a pink dress with puff sleeves and a square neck line. Her
cousins are both in yellow cartoon dinosaur t-shirts.
Four-year-old Hawraa with her cousins - all three were killed in the attack
[Fares family]
Three floors below Batoul lived Denise and Moheyaldeen Al-Baba. That Sunday,
Denise had invited her brother Hisham over for lunch.
The impact of the strike was brutal, says Hisham.
"The second missile slammed me to the floor… the entire wall fell on top of me."
He spent seven hours under the rubble.
"I heard a voice far away. People talking. Screams and… 'Cover her. Remove her.
Lift the stone. He's still alive. It's a child. Lift this child.' I mean… Oh my
God. I thought to myself, I'm the last one deep underground. No-one will know
about me. I will die here." When Hisham was finally rescued, he found his
niece's fiance waiting to hear if she was alive. He lied to him and told him she
was fine. They found her body three days later.Hisham lost four members of his
family - his sister, brother-in-law and their two children. He told us he had
lost his faith and no longer believes in God. To find out more about who died,
we have analysed Lebanese Health Ministry data, videos, social media posts, as
well as speaking to survivors of the attack. We particularly wanted to
interrogate the IDF's response to media - immediately following the attack -
that the apartment block had been a Hezbollah command centre. We asked the IDF
multiple times what constituted a command centre, but it did not give
clarification. So we began sifting through social media tributes, gravesites,
public health records and videos of funerals to determine whether those killed
in the attack had any military affiliation with Hezbollah.
We could only find evidence that six of the 68 dead we identified were connected
to Hezbollah's military wing. Hezbollah memorial photos for the six men use the
label "Mujahid", meaning "fighter". Senior figures, by contrast, are referred to
as "Qaid", meaning "commander" - and we found no such labels used by the group
to describe those killed. We asked the IDF whether the six Hezbollah fighters we
identified were the intended targets of the strike. It did not respond to this
question.
One of the Hezbollah fighters we identified was Batoul's husband, Mohammed
Fares. Batoul told us that her husband, like many other men in southern Lebanon,
was a reservist for the group, though she added that he had never been paid by
Hezbollah, held a formal rank, or participated in combat.
Israel sees Hezbollah as one of its main threats and the group is designated a
terrorist organisation by Israel, many Western governments and Gulf Arab states.
But alongside its large, well-armed military wing, Hezbollah is also an
influential political party, holding seats in Lebanese parliament. In many parts
of the country it is woven into the social fabric, providing a network of social
services.
In response to our investigation, the IDF stated: "The IDF's strikes on military
targets are subject to relevant provisions of international law, including
taking feasible precautions, and are carried out after an assessment that the
expected collateral damage and civilian casualties are not excessive in relation
to the military advantage expected from the strike." It had earlier also told
the BBC it had executed "evacuation procedures" for the strike on Ain El Delb,
but everyone we spoke to said they had received no warning.
Watch on YouTube if outside the UK
UN experts have raised concerns about the proportionality and necessity of
Israeli air strikes on residential buildings in densely populated areas in
Lebanon.
This pattern of targeting entire buildings - resulting in significant civilian
casualties - has been a recurring feature of Israel's latest conflict with
Hezbollah, which began when the group escalated rocket attacks in response to
Israel's war in Gaza.
Between October 2023 and November 2024, Lebanese authorities say more than 3,960
people were killed in Lebanon by Israeli forces, many of them civilians. Over
the same time period, Israeli authorities say at least 47 civilians were killed
by Hezbollah rockets fired from southern Lebanon. At least 80 Israeli soldiers
were also killed fighting in southern Lebanon or as a result of rocket attacks
on northern Israel. The missile strike in Ain El Delb is the deadliest Israeli
attack on a building in Lebanon for at least 18 years. The village remains
haunted by its impact. When we visited, more than a month after the strike, a
father continued to visit the site every day, hoping for news of his 11-year-old
son, whose body had yet to be found.
Ashraf Ramadan, too, returns to sift through the rubble, searching for what
remains of the memories his family built over the two decades they lived there.
He shows me the door of his wardrobe, still adorned with pictures of footballers
and pop stars he once admired. Then, he pulls a teddy bear from the debris and
tells me it was always on his bed. "Nothing I find here will make up for the
people we lost," he says. Additional reporting by Scarlett Barter and Jake
Tacchi.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 24-25/2025
Israeli drone strike kills two in major ongoing West Bank
operation
Reuters/January 24, 2025
RAMALLAH (Reuters) - An Israeli drone strike on a vehicle near the West Bank
town of Qabatiya killed two people, the Palestinian health ministry said on
Friday, the fourth day of a large-scale Israeli operation in the nearby city of
Jenin launched after the truce in Gaza. The Israeli military said an air strike
had hit a vehicle with what it said was a "terrorist cell" inside but gave no
further details. The military has been carrying out a major operation in Jenin
aiming to crack down on Palestinian militant groups it says are backed by Iran,
launched just two days after a ceasefire took effect in the war with Hamas in
the Gaza Strip. At least 12 Palestinians have been killed in the operation,
Palestinian health officials said, including two claimed by the armed wing of
Hamas. The Israeli military said it had also arrested 20 wanted suspects and
seized weapons. Armoured bulldozers and diggers have demolished houses and dug
up roads in the crowded refugee camp adjacent to Jenin, a major centre of armed
militant groups, where thousands of people have left their homes. The United
Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Thameen Al-Kheetan said he was deeply
concerned about the use of unlawful lethal force and said the Jenin operation
raised serious concerns about unnecessary or disproportionate force. Fighting in
Gaza has halted for the start of a six-week first phase of a ceasefire backed by
the United States. Israeli officials say the operation in Jenin is part of a
multifront war against an axis of Iranian-backed groups in the West Bank,
southern Lebanon and Yemen.
Gaza life expectancy nearly
half prewar levels: Study
Arab News/January 24, 2025
LONDON: Israel’s war in Gaza has led to a drop in average life expectancy of 35
years in the Palestinian enclave, a new study has found. The Lancet journal
published data suggesting that life expectancy had dropped to 40.5 years by
September 2024, having been 75.5 years before Israel began its invasion in
October 2023. Researchers for the study at the University of Pennsylvania said
the true average age could be lower as only data from those killed by war
injuries was considered rather than overall casualty figures, which were likely
exacerbated by the collapse of Gaza’s health system. Casualty lists from Gaza’s
health authorities were cross-referenced with a UN refugee list and census data
to arrive at the findings. “Our life expectancy results show that the … war in
the Gaza Strip generated a life expectancy loss of more than 30 years during the
first 12 months of the war, nearly halving pre-war levels,” the study’s authors
said. Despite the logistical issues caused by the war, the UN considers the Gaza
health data — which claims that 47,000 have died — accurate. The UN Human Rights
Office said it verified the identities of 8,119 people killed from November 2023
to April 2024. It added that 44 percent were children and 26 percent were women,
with the largest age bracket 5-9-year-olds, and that around 80 percent of people
were killed in residential buildings. “Our case-by-case evaluation of the Gaza
Health Ministry list of killed individuals did not detect any substantial errors
or signs of intentional inflation,” the researchers said. “It is highly likely
that our central estimates underestimate true losses, because they do not
include individuals reported missing or under the rubble. “Even more
importantly, our results do not include the indirect effects of the war on
mortality.”A separate Lancet study published earlier this month suggests that
the 47,000-casualty figure may be an underestimate by around 40 percent.
Netanyahu suffers health
challenges, court documents reveal
Ynetnews/January 24/2025
Prime minister attorney in his criminal trial for corruption tells Jerusalem
District Court Netanyahu sufferd from an infection after an operation to remove
his prostate gland and was unable to sit, stand or work for more than 3 hours
without rest nd was surgically removed earlier last month. Court documents filed
by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's defense team on Friday revealed that the
prime minister had suffered a severe infection after his prostate gland was
surgically removed earlier last month. Netanyahu submitted a request to the
Jerusalem District Court where he is on criminal trial for corruption, to reduce
the number of days he would testify next week, after he was allowed to delay his
testimony for his operation and recovery. His defense attorney Amid Haddad wrote
in the request that Netanyahu's physicians said he must avoid any activity
lasting for more than three hours without rest in the coming week and also avoid
traveling a long distance, sitting or standing for extended periods. The prime
minister's trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust was moved out to Tel
Aviv amid security concerns during the war. The hearings are being held in the
Tel Aviv District Court building. Haddad requested that Netanyahu only testify
one day next week, and not the three days scheduled by the court, that testimony
would begin one hour later than the 9 am hour set by the court and that he be
allowed to rest during his testimony. Haddad said Netanyahu's involvement in the
hostage-release deal which he has "undertaken to fulfil despite his medical
condition," has delayed his recovery. The prosecution said that after reviewing
the medical documents submitted to the court, they oppose any reduction in the
number of days that the prime minister must testify. The decision to testify in
his defense was Netanyahu's to make and his testimony was postponed by months at
his request, after he claimed that his defense team could not prepare him
because of the war. His testimony began last December.
Israeli PM office confirms it received list of hostages to
be released by Hamas
Ynetnews/January 24/2025
Netanyahu's office says mediators delivered a list from Hamas; however, the list
differs from what Israel had expected, raising a significant difficulty over
whether to accept it. The Prime Minister’s Office reported Friday that it
received from mediators the list of hostages set to be released by Hamas on
Saturday.
The situation presents a complex difficulty, as the list—delivered by
Hamas—differs from what Israel had anticipated. The list was passed to Mossad
Director David Barnea by Qatar’s prime minister and is now under careful review
by Israeli authorities. After 477 days in captivity, four hostages are expected
to be released on Saturday as part of the second phase of the agreement.
Discussions with mediators are ongoing, and Israel is reportedly considering
various options, including delaying the withdrawal from Netzarim and the return
of Gaza residents to the northern part of the Gaza Strip. According to the IDF's
Arabic spokesperson, this return is set to begin Sunday, per the agreement,
"provided Hamas adheres to its terms." An official statement from Gaza confirmed
that the "Palestinian resistance factions" will provide the list of hostages set
to be released. This indicates that Hamas and Islamic Jihad will participate in
this phase of the exchange.
UN denounces Israel’s use of ‘war
fighting’ methods in West Bank
AFP/January 24, 2025
GENEVA: The United Nations voiced serious concerns Friday over the Israeli
military’s use of force during its raid this week in the West Bank, including
methods “developed for war fighting.”The Israeli military this week launched a
raid in the Jenin area, a hotbed of Palestinian militancy, days into a ceasefire
in its war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. “We are deeply concerned by the use of
unlawful lethal force in Jenin, in the occupied West Bank,” UN human rights
office spokesman Thameen Al-Kheetan told a media briefing in Geneva. “The deadly
Israeli operations in recent days raise serious concerns about unnecessary or
disproportionate use of force, including methods and means developed for war
fighting, in violation of international human rights law, norms and standards
applicable to law enforcement operations.“This includes multiple airstrikes and
apparently random shooting at unarmed residents attempting to flee or find
safety.”UN human rights chief Volker Turk has called for Israel to adopt and
enforce rules of engagement that are fully in line with applicable human rights
norms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the objective of the
operation, dubbed “Iron Wall,” was to “eradicate terrorism” in the area. Kheetan
said the UN rights office had verified that at least 12 Palestinians had been
killed and 40 injured by Israeli security forces since Tuesday, adding that most
of them were reportedly unarmed. He called for all killings in a law enforcement
context to be thoroughly and independently investigated. “Those responsible for
unlawful killings must be held to account,” the spokesman added. Kheetan said
that following the Gaza ceasefire announcement, Israeli settlers in the West
Bank had been “attacking Palestinian villages and stoning vehicles,” with houses
and cars torched. “We are also concerned by repeated comments from some Israeli
officials about plans to expand settlements further still, in a fresh breach of
international law. We recall again that the transfer by Israel of its own
civilian population into territories it occupies also amounts to a war crime,”
he said. “We call for an immediate end to the violence in the West Bank. We also
call on all parties, including third States with influence, to do everything in
their power to ensure peace is achieved in the region.”
One minute, they were celebrating Gaza’s ceasefire. The next, they were killed
Zeena Saifi, Abeer Salman, Jeremy
Diamond and Tareq ElHelou, CNN/January 24, 2025
Thirteen-year-old Zakariya Barbakh had spent most of his life shuffling between
hospitals across Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Israel. Born without a lung,
he had struggled to breathe. Doctors had predicted he would need a transplant if
he were to reach adulthood. But the last 15 months of war in Gaza had made that
impossible. When the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect on
Sunday, Zakariya was ecstatic.“Mom, now we can go look for my lungs!” his mother
recalled him saying. Less than 24 hours later, Zakariya was shot dead. Doctors
at Nasser Hospital say an Israeli sniper fired the fatal shot in the southern
city of Rafah on Monday. Zakariya’s family told CNN he had been looking for wood
to use for cooking and heating. “He didn’t die from his disease; he ended up
dying at the hands of the occupation. All he wanted was to have lungs to
breathe, what did he do to deserve this? What did this child do?” his mother
said, unable to hold back tears. The Israeli military told CNN it was not aware
of the incident. Zakariya is one of at least four Palestinians allegedly shot by
the Israeli military since the ceasefire went into effect. The Israeli military
has withdrawn to buffer zones along Gaza’s border, but has warned Palestinians
against approaching areas where its troops are still stationed. It has published
a map of zones that are “very dangerous” to approach. But where those zones
begin and end is not always as clear on the ground. “How would he know he would
face occupation forces? How would he know he was in the wrong area? All he did
was try to find something to eat. He got lost along the way. Can you not see the
way this child looks? He looks sick and despairing,” his mother said.
Freedom is bittersweet for Palestinians released from Israeli jails
Sam Mednick/RAMALLAH, West Bank
(AP)/January 24, 2025
RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — When Dania Hanatsheh was released from an Israeli
jail this week and dropped off by bus into a sea of jubilant Palestinians in
Ramallah, it was an uncomfortable déjà vu. After nearly five months of
detention, it was the second time the 22-year-old woman had been freed as part
of a deal between Israel and Hamas to pause the war in Gaza. Hanatsheh’s elation
at being free again is tinged with sadness about the devastation in Gaza, she
said, as well as uncertainty about whether she could be detained in the future —
a common feeling in her community. “Palestinian families are prepared to be
arrested at any moment,” said Hanatsheh, one of 90 women and teenagers released
by Israel during the first phase of the ceasefire deal. “You feel helpless like
you can’t do anything to protect yourself.”Nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners
are to be released as part of a deal to halt the fighting for six weeks, free 33
hostages from Gaza, and increase fuel and aid deliveries to the territory. Many
of the prisoners to be released have been detained for infractions such as
throwing stones or Molotov cocktails, while others are convicted of killing
Israelis.
Hanatsheh was first arrested in November 2023, just weeks into the war triggered
by Hamas' deadly attack on Israel. She was freed days later during a weeklong
ceasefire in which hundreds of Palestinians were released in exchange for nearly
half of the roughly 250 hostages Hamas and others dragged into Gaza. She was
detained again in August, when Israeli troops burst through her door, using an
explosive, she said. On neither occasion was she told why she’d been arrested,
she said. A list maintained by Israel's justice ministry says Hanatsheh was
detained for “supporting terror,” although she was never charged or given a
trial and doesn't belong to any militant group. Her story resonates across
Palestinian society, where nearly every family — in Gaza, the West Bank and east
Jerusalem — has a relative who has spent time in an Israeli jail. This has left
scars on generations of families, leaving fewer breadwinners and forcing
children to grow up without one or both parents for long stretches. Since the
start of the war 15 months ago, the number of Palestinians in Israeli jails has
doubled to more than 10,000, a figure that includes detainees from Gaza, and
several thousand arrested in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, according to
Hamoked, an Israeli legal group. Many prisoners are never told why they were
detained. Israel’s “administrative detention” policy allows it to jail people —
as it did with Hanatsheh — based on secret evidence, without publicly charging
them or ever holding a trial. Only intelligence officers or judges know the
charges, said Amjad Abu Asab, head of the Detainees’ Parents Committee in
Jerusalem.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, the Palestinian prisoners released by Israel
cannot be later rearrested on the same charges, or returned to jail to finish
serving time for past offenses. Prisoners are not required to sign any document
upon their release. The conditions for Palestinian prisoners deteriorated
greatly after the war in Gaza began. The country’s then-national security
minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, boasted last year that prisons will no longer be
“summer camps” under his watch. Several of the prisoners released this week said
they lacked adequate food and medical care and that they were forced to sleep in
cramped cells.
Men and women prisoners in Israel are routinely beaten and sprayed with pepper
gas, and they are deprived of family visits or a change of clothes, said Khalida
Jarrar, the most prominent detainee freed. For years, Jarrar, 62, has been in
and out of prison as a leading member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine, a leftist faction with an armed wing that has carried out attacks on
Israelis. Human Rights Watch has decried Jarrar's repeated arrests — she was
last detained late in 2023 — as part of an unjust Israeli crackdown on
non-violent political opposition. At an event in Ramallah to welcome home the
newly released prisoners, Jarrar greeted a long line of well- wishers. But not
everyone was celebrating. Some families worried the ceasefire wouldn't last long
enough for their relatives to be freed. During the ceasefire's first phase,
Israel and Hamas and mediators from Qatar, the U.S. and Egypt will try to agree
upon a second phase, in which all remaining hostages in Gaza would be released
in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a complete Israeli withdrawal from
Gaza and a “sustainable calm.” Negotiations on the second phase begin on the
sixteenth day of the ceasefire.
For Yassar Saadat, the first release of prisoners was a particularly bittersweet
moment. His mother, Abla Abdelrasoul, was freed after being under
“administrative detention” since September, according to the justice ministry,
which said her crime was “security to the state - other.” But his father — one
of the most high-profile prisoners in Israel — remains behind bars. “We don’t
know if he’ll be released, but we don’t lose hope,” he said. His father, Ahmad
Saadat, is a leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine who was
convicted of killing an Israeli Cabinet minister in 2001 and has been serving a
30-year sentence. It’s unclear if he’ll be released and, even if he is, whether
he’ll be able to see his family. The ceasefire agreement says all Palestinian
prisoners convicted of deadly attacks who are released will be exiled, either to
Gaza or abroad, and barred from ever returning to Israel or the West Bank. The
release of some convicted murderers is a sore spot for many Israelis, and
particularly those whose relatives were killed. Micah Avni’s father, Richard
Lakin, was shot and stabbed to death by a member of Hamas on a public bus in
2015 and his killer's name is on the list of prisoners to be freed in phase one.
While Avni is grateful that more hostages in Gaza are beginning to come home, he
doesn’t believe it'll lead to long-term peace between Israel and Hamas. “These
deals come with a huge, huge cost of life and there are going to be many, many,
many more people murdered in the future by the people who were released,” he
said. Israel has a history of agreeing to lopsided exchanges. In 2011, Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to release more than 1,000 Palestinian
prisoners in exchange for a single Israeli soldier, Gilad Schalit, taken hostage
by Hamas. One of the prisoners released during that deal was Hamas’ former top
leader, Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack who was killed by
Israeli troops in Gaza last year. Some Palestinians said the lopsided exchanges
of prisoners for hostages is justified by Israel's seemingly arbitrary detention
policies. Others said, for now, all they want to focus on is lost time with
their families. Amal Shujaeiah said she spent more than seven months in prison,
accused by Israel of partaking in pro-Palestinian events at her university and
hosting a podcast that talked about the war in Gaza.
Back home, the 21-year-old beamed as she embraced friends and relatives.
“Today I am among my family and loved ones, indescribable joy ... a moment of
freedom that makes you forget the sorrow.”
A dramatic video showing the aftermath of the incident was shared widely online.
CNN. - Obtained by CNN/January
24/2025
News that Israel and Hamas had reached a ceasefire deal triggered celebrations
across the Strip last Wednesday. But in several areas those celebrations were
soon drowned out by the sound of Israeli airstrikes. In the four days between
when the deal was announced and when it went into effect on Sunday morning,
Israeli attacks killed at least 142 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Civil
Defense, including dozens of women and children. Among them were members of
3-year-old As’ad Khalifa’s family. Less than 24 hours after the ceasefire deal
was announced, an Israeli airstrike targeted his home. As’ad survived, but in an
instant, he became an orphan. His parents and sister were killed in the strike.
His next-door neighbor Moutasem Dallou told CNN the strike happened in the
middle of the night and “shook the ground beneath.” Pieces of shrapnel had
reached Dallou’s home and terrified his young children.
Dallou knew the family as they had been displaced by the war at the same time.
He went searching for them under the rubble with other neighbors. Using basic
equipment and their bare hands, they were able to uncover and retrieve the dead
bodies of the mother and father but the children remained missing.
Before they gave up, they heard the cries of a child and began frantically
throwing aside blocks of cement until they reached the source. After a grueling
30 minutes, they found a small hand reaching out amid the rubble and gripping
the air. They were able to pull the child – As’ad – out, roughed up and covered
in dust – but alive. His little sister was found dead next to him.
Dallou and his sister Mawada have since taken him in.
“Nearly four hours after the ceasefire announcement, his mother sent us a text
message congratulating us for the news. Moments later, she was killed….This
child lost his mother and father in mere seconds. Because of the decision of a
pilot in the sky, this child lost everything he had in life,” Mawada told CNN.
In a statement to CNN, the Israeli military said it “struck terror
infrastructure where a commander in the Hamas terrorist organization …was
present. The terrorist was responsible for many rocket attacks.”“The IDF took
intelligence measures to mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals,” the statement
added.
Dallou has children of similar age to As’ad, which has helped to integrate him
into their family. But he is concerned about how As’ad will grow up. “I know
from my experience with my little daughter that this child is going through a
difficult psychological state. They are petrified from any sound now …They start
crying for their mother,” he said. Mawada said that because she knew As’ad’s
mother, she would do everything she can to embrace him.
“We will try, but we will not be able to replace his mother or bring her back.”
Saudi foreign minister calls for ending Syria sanctions during talks in Damascus
Arab News/January 24, 2025
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Syrian
leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa held talks in Damascus on Friday including the Kingdom's
efforts to remove international sanctions from Syria. Prince Faisal traveled to
Syria for his first official visit there since the downfall of Bashar Assad to
meet top officials in the new Syrian administration.The talks with Al-Sharaa
focused on “supporting Syria's security, stability and unity,” the foreign
ministry said. “The talks also addressed efforts to support Syria's political,
humanitarian, and economic aspects, emphasizing the ongoing efforts to lift the
sanctions imposed on Syria and provide all forms of assistance and support to
Syria during this critical phase to restore stability across its entire
territory and revive its national institutions in a manner that aligns with the
aspirations and hopes of the Syrian people,” the statement said. Speaking at a
press conference alongside the Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shaibani,
Prince Faisal said it was important to accelerate the “lifting and freezing of
all sanctions." He said Saudi Arabia was engaged in "active dialogue with all
relevant countries, whether the United States or the European Union, and we are
hearing positive messages.”The EU and the US placed an extensive sanctions
regime on Syria during the rule of Assad, who was toppled from power by Al-Sharaa’s
Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group and its allies in December. The US said earlier
this month that it would ease sanctions on transactions with Syrian government
institutions to help the flow of humanitarian assistance. The EU is reported to
be close to agreeing to ease sanctions on certain sectors. During his meeting
with Al-Sharaa, Prince Faisal passed on the greetings of King Salman and Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The new Syrian administration chose Saudi Arabia for
its first foreign visit when Al-Shaibani led a delegation to Riyadh earlier this
month. The Kingdom has stepped up humanitarian aid supplies to Syria since the
start of the year. Prince Faisal arrived in Syrian after a visit to Lebanon on
Thursday, where he met the new President General Joseph Aoun.
ADNOC shipping rules out
quick return to Red Sea, CEO says
Reuters/January 24, 2025
DUBAI: Red Sea shipping remains risky despite the Gaza ceasefire and an
announcement by Houthis to limit attacks, according to the CEO of Abu Dhabi
National Oil Company’s logistics and shipping arm. Shipping executives remain
cautious about a return to the Red Sea, given the risk to seafarers, cargo, and
their assets. Houthis have carried out more than 100 attacks on ships since
November 2023, resulting in most shipping companies diverting vessels away from
the Suez Canal to use the longer route around southern Africa instead. “As we
speak today, we cannot say it’s almost completely gone, and it’s a go-ahead for
all the fleet to go inside the Red Sea. As I said, there is a people side to it,
so we cannot risk our people going there while there may be a fragile ceasefire
now,” said ADNOC Logistics & Services CEO Abdulkareem Al-Masabi. Danish shipping
company Maersk said on Friday it would continue to reroute around Africa via the
Cape of Good Hope until safe passage through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden area
was ensured for the longer term. The Houthis will limit their attacks on
commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully
implemented.However, they have conditioned their halt in attacks on US or
UK-linked shipping with various provisos, which has added to caution on any
return, shipping and insurance sources say. The Houthis on Wednesday freed the
crew of the Galaxy Leader, a vessel that the militia seized more than a year
ago. In another development, the UN has suspended all travel into areas held by
Houthis after the militia detained more of their staff. The Houthis have already
detained UN staffers, as well as individuals associated with the once-open US
Embassy in Sanaa and aid groups. “Yesterday, the de facto authorities in Sanaa
detained additional UN personnel working in areas under their control,” the UN
statement read. “To ensure the security and safety of all its staff, the United
Nations has suspended all official movements into and within areas under the de
facto authorities’ control.” Before Friday, the UN had a total of 16 Yemeni
staff in Houthi detention.
Staffers were trying to get a headcount across the UN agencies working in the
country and had halted their work, which provides food, medicine, and other aid
to the impoverished nation. In June, the UN acknowledged the Houthis detained 11
Yemeni employees under unclear circumstances as the militia increasingly cracked
down on areas under their control.Several dozen others from aid agencies and
other organizations are also held. The UN added that it was “actively engaging
with senior representatives” of the Houthis.
Davos 2025 concludes with
regular WEF meeting in Riyadh announced starting spring 2026
TAREK ALI AHMAD/Arab News/January
24/2025
DAVOS: As the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting came to a close, the
announcement of a new, regular meeting in Saudi Arabia from spring 2026 ushered
in applause from a full congress hall. Building on the success of the WEF
Special Meeting in April last year, “Saudi Arabia and the World Economic Forum
are happy to announce that we will host a regular World Economic Forum global
meeting in the Kingdom,” said the country’s Minister of Economy and Planning
Faisal Alibrahim in Davos on Friday. “This is a testament to the global platform
for dialogue, collaboration and innovation that Saudi Arabia has become and the
World Economic Forum continued to be,” he added. “This meeting continues to be
an opportunity to further unite the world in capturing the immense potential
that lies ahead.”Saudi Arabia hosted its first two-day WEF special meeting in
late April last year, which focused on global collaboration, growth and energy.
Responding to US President Donald Trump’s comments yesterday asking Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed Bin Salman to increase the Kingdom’s investments from $600
billion to $1 trillion, Alibrahim said this figure would also include
procurement from the public and private sectors. “What we’ll spend in the
economy from the start of Vision 2030 to 2030 is 12 times that number,”
Alibrahim said. Alongside Alibrahim on the final panel of the conference were
Singapore’s president, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina
Georgieva, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, and BlackRock CEO
Larry Fink. “There is too much pessimism around Europe, and it could be time to
be investing back in the region,” Fink said, adding there was still progress to
be made in areas such as capital markets union.
Trump immigration
enforcement memo targets migrants who entered legally under Biden
Reuters/January 24, 2025
WASHINGTON: The Trump administration is empowering federal immigration officers
to consider whether to strip temporary legal status from migrants who entered
through former President Joe Biden’s signature “parole” programs in an effort to
ramp up deportations to record levels, according to a memo issued on Thursday.
The US Department of Homeland Security memo provides guidance for the use of a
fast-track deportation process that the Trump administration reinstated earlier
this week, suggesting officers focus on migrants who failed to request asylum
within a one-year deadline after arriving in the US. The process, known as
“expedited removal,” had been applied only to people apprehended within 14 days
of entering the country and within 100 miles (160 km) of the border under Biden.
On Tuesday, it was expanded nationwide and applied to all those who entered
within two years.
President Donald Trump issued a series of executive orders after returning to
the White House on Monday intended to deter illegal immigration and position the
US to deport millions of immigrants without legal status. The Republican
president says the moves are necessary after millions of immigrants entered the
US under Biden, both crossing illegally and through Biden’s legal entry
programs. Some Democrats and advocates counter that Trump’s aggressive
enforcement could target non-criminals, disrupt businesses and split apart
families. Immigrant rights group Make the Road New York sued on Wednesday to
block Trump’s expansion of the fast-track deportation process. Some 1.5 million
migrants entered the US from 2022 to 2024 through two Biden legal entry “parole”
programs aimed at reducing illegal crossings, according to US government
statistics. One program allowed migrants waiting in Mexico to schedule an
appointment to request asylum at a legal border crossing. Another allowed
Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans outside the US to enter by air if
they had US sponsors and underwent vetting. Trump ended those programs on
Monday, leaving some migrants in Mexico. stranded and unsure of next steps.
Migrants who might have entered legally could face riskier routes if they cross
illegally and higher prices from smugglers. The latest guidance allowing US
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to consider stripping active
parole from people who entered in the past two years could face legal
challenges, one former Biden official said. ICE made some 500 arrests on
Thursday, Fox News reported, about a third of which were people without criminal
records. The agency’s daily average for arrests was 311 in fiscal year 2024 and
467 in fiscal year 2023.
Ras Baraka, the Democratic mayor of Newark, New Jersey, criticized ICE last
night. for an enforcement action in his city that involved detaining US citizens
and a military veteran.
Syria cancels port
management contract with Russian firm, sources say
Reuters/January 24, 2025
DAMSASCUS (Reuters) - Syria's new ruling administration has cancelled a contract
with a Russian firm to manage and operate the country's Tartous port that was
signed under former President Bashar al-Assad, according to three Syrian
businessmen and media reports. Syrian government spokespeople either said they
could not confirm the reports, or did not respond to requests for comment.
Semi-official Syrian newspaper Al-Watan on Thursday quoted the head of Tartous
customs, Riad Joudy, as saying that the investment contract had been annulled
after the Russian firm, STG Stroytransgaz, failed to fulfil the terms of the
2019 deal, which included investments in infrastructure. The report was
confirmed by three Syrian businessmen, including one with work at Tartous port.
STG Stroytransgaz is a major construction company whose mandate was to invest
and develop the commercial port, Syria's second-largest after Latakia.
The contract is separate from the Russian naval base in Tartous, built by the
Soviet Union in the 1970s and part of a decades-old military agreement between
Moscow and Damascus on the use of the Mediterranean port. Russia and Syria's new
ruling administration have said they are in talks over the future of Russia's
military presence in Syria after Islamist rebels ousted Russia's ally Assad on
Dec. 8, 2024.
Saudi FM in Syria for first
visit since Assad's ouster
Agence France Presse/January 24, 2025
Saudi Arabia's top diplomat landed in Syria on Friday, an AFP correspondent
reported, in his first visit to Damascus since Islamist-led rebels ousted
president Bashar al-Assad last month. Syrian authorities said Saudi Foreign
Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan is set to meet with new ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa,
who is eyeing investments from wealthy Gulf states to rebuild the war-torn
country. The last time bin Farhan was in Damascus, in April 2023, he met Assad
in a landmark visit that ended more than a decade of strained relations. Riyadh
was key to returning Assad's Syria to the Arab League, after severing ties in
2012 over the government's crackdown on pro-democracy protests that sparked
civil war. Now, Syria's new leadership is eager for Saudi investment to help
rebuild the country's war-shattered infrastructure and boost its economy. The
Islamist authorities' first foreign visit since seizing power was to Saudi
Arabia, which has begun sending humanitarian aid to the country. Last month,
Sharaa told Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV that Riyadh "will certainly have a large
role in Syria's future", pointing to "a big investment opportunity for all
neighboring countries".
Saudi Foreign Minister:
Riyadh is engaged in negotiations to lift sanctions on Syria and we are
receiving positive signals in this regard
National/January 24, 2025
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan confirmed from Damascus, where he met
with the leader of the new administration in Syria, that "Riyadh is engaged in
negotiations to lift sanctions on Syria and we are receiving positive signals in
this regard."
Al-Shara: We will not allow the division of Syria or the
threat of Kurdish militants to Turkey and efforts to reactivate the free trade
agreement between Ankara and Damascus
Ankara: Saeed Abdul Razek/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 24, 2025
The commander-in-chief of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Shara,
confirmed that his administration will not accept the division of Syria or the
presence of armed groups outside the control of the state. He also called on the
international community to lift the sanctions imposed on the country, and
revealed that his first foreign visit will be to Saudi Arabia or Turkey. Al-Shara
said that his administration will not allow the Kurdish People's Protection
Units, which represent the main component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
to have any armed groups outside the control of the state, or the presence of
"groups of foreign fighters" in Syria. In an interview with the pro-Turkish
government channel A Haber, broadcast on Thursday night, al-Sharaa stressed that
the Syrian administration will not allow the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to
carry out terrorist attacks against Turkey, and will do its utmost to ensure the
security of the Turkish border.
A message to Kurdish militants
In this regard, al-Sharaa said: "We do not want foreign armed groups, and it is
impossible for us in particular to accept groups that threaten Turkey. The
bombings in Istanbul and Ankara were carried out by the Kurdistan Workers' Party
(YPG) and we cannot accept that. The Arab and Kurdish tribes in Syria do not
want the Kurdistan Workers' Party or the Democratic Union Party." He added that
there is room for negotiation with the SDF, and the Syrian administration has
the right to use all means to restore its territorial integrity. There are
elements of non-Syrian origin within the Kurdish Units - SDF, who must leave the
country. He continued: "We do not want bloodshed. We said let us meet, but on
the condition that those who left their countries and came to Syria return to
their countries, and that all weapons must be in the hands of the state." Sharaa
met with a delegation from the "SDF" late last month, but the Minister of
Defense in the Syrian administration, Marhaf Abu Qasra, stated last Wednesday
that the "SDF" was stalling regarding joining the unified Syrian army, and that
the door is now open for negotiations, but force may be resorted to if
necessary. Turkey threatens to crush the Kurdish units in northern and eastern
Syria if its foreign fighters do not leave Syria, and if its Syrian elements do
not give up their weapons and join the unified Syrian army, noting that the new
Syrian administration is capable of taking steps in this regard. The Kurdish
units enjoy strong support from the United States and Western countries that are
members of the international coalition against "ISIS", claiming that they are a
close ally in the war on the terrorist organization in Syria.
Syrian security forces confront an attack by elements of
the former regime in Jableh, and were able to neutralize the attackers
Asharq Al-Awsat/January 24, 2025
The Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported on Friday evening that the General
Security Forces stationed at the Military College checkpoint in the city of
Jableh confronted a “terrorist” attack carried out by elements of the former
regime, and were able to neutralize the attackers. The newspaper did not
immediately provide further details about the casualties on both sides. “Syria
TV” said last Wednesday that two members of the Military Operations Department
were killed in an attack launched by elements of the regime of former President
Bashar al-Assad in the northwestern Latakia Governorate. The channel added that
the attack, launched by elements of the former regime on the Al-Sina’a
checkpoint in the city of Jableh, also resulted in the injury of three others
from the Military Operations Department, without providing further details. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the General Security Forces
brought in military reinforcements to the site, and imposed a security cordon,
in parallel with conducting a search campaign in the vicinity of Al-Hajj.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 24-25/2025
Question: “Is it acceptable to repeatedly pray for
the same thing?”
GotQuestions.org?/January 24/2025
Answer: In Luke 18:1-7, Jesus uses a parable to illustrate the importance of
persevering in prayer. He tells the story of a widow who came to an unjust judge
seeking justice against her adversary. Because of her persistence in prayer, the
judge relented. Jesus’ point is that if an unjust judge will grant the petition
of someone who perseveres in a request for justice, how much more will the God
who loves us—“his chosen ones” (v. 7)—answer our prayer when we keep praying?
The parable does not teach, as is mistakenly thought, that if we pray for
something over and over, God is obligated to give it to us. Rather, God promises
to avenge His own, to vindicate them, right their wrongs, do them justice, and
deliver them from their adversaries. He does this because of His justice, His
holiness, and His hatred of sin; in answering prayer, He keeps His promises and
displays His power. Jesus gives another illustration of prayer in Luke 11:5-12.
Similar to the parable of the unjust judge, Jesus’ message in this passage is
that if a man will inconvenience himself to provide for a needy friend, God will
provide for our needs far more, since no request is an inconvenience to Him.
Here again, the promise is not that we will receive whatever we ask if we just
keep asking. God’s promise to His children is a promise to meet our needs, not
our wants. And He knows our needs better than we do. The same promise is
reiterated in Matthew 7:7-11 and in Luke 11:13, where the “good gift” is further
explained to be the Holy Spirit.
Both of these passages encourage us to pray and to keep praying. There is
nothing wrong with repeatedly asking for the same thing. As long as what you are
praying for is within the will of God (James 4:3; 1 John 5:14-15), keep asking
until God grants your request or removes the desire from your heart. Sometimes
God forces us to wait for an answer to our prayers in order to teach us patience
and perseverance. Sometimes we ask for something when granting it is not yet in
God’s timing for our lives. Sometimes we ask for something that is not God’s
will for us, and He says “no.” Prayer is not only our presenting requests to
God; it is God’s presenting His will to our hearts. Keep on asking, keep on
knocking, and keep on seeking until God grants your request or convinces you
that your request is not His will for you.
Azerbaijan Continues to Illegally Hold, Torture Armenian
Hostages
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/January 24, 2025
On January 17, Azerbaijan began trials of 16 Armenian captives... in military
courtrooms, to which international media and observers have been denied access.
The next court hearings are slated for January 27, during which court decisions
are expected to be announced. As of now, the trials are open only to Azerbaijani
state media.
Azerbaijan's ethnic cleansing against the Armenian people of Artsakh has been
proceeding for the past four years.... Azeri soldiers posted videos and photos
of themselves beheading and mutilating Armenians.
"A court hearing of my case is scheduled for January 27 at 3:00 PM. I have been
informed that I am facing 42 charges, some of which carry sentences up to life
imprisonment. However, I have not been granted the opportunity to fully review
the official indictment. My lawyer and I were merely allowed to skim through 422
volumes of the case files, all written solely in the Azerbaijani language, which
I do not understand.... Moreover, pressure has been exerted on me, my lawyer,
and my interpreter to force us to backdate and sign documents, including
falsified protocols and records of interrogations that never took place.... Let
me reiterate: all protocols bearing my signature are falsifications." — Ruben
Vardanyan, former State Minister of Artsakh, January 16, 2025.
One of the Armenian hostages tortured in an Azeri prison is Vicken Euljekjian...
[detained] 10 hours after the ceasefire had gone into effect.... A court
sentenced Euljekjian to 20 years imprisonment after a short trial without
adequate legal representation.... Liparit Drmeyan, an aide to Armenia's
representative to the European Court of Human Rights, said that Euljekjian did
not have access to lawyers that were chosen by him.... [His wife said he] has
requested a retrial and a lawyer, but the Azeri authorities refuse to meet these
requests.
The Trump administration needs to make Azerbaijan release these hostages. US
President Donald Trump needs to sanction Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and
other Azeri officials for carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing against
Nagorno-Karabakh that continues to threaten the territorial integrity of Armenia
while refusing to release the Armenian POWs and hostages.
Azerbaijan's ethnic cleansing against the Armenian people of Artsakh has been
proceeding for the past four years. Pictured: The Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in
Shusha, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) on October 13, 2020, after it was bombed by
Azerbaijani forces. (Photo by Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images)
Azerbaijan's government authorities refuse to release the Armenian hostages whom
they have illegally held and abused since they captured them in 2020 and 2023.
On January 17, Azerbaijan began trials of 16 Armenian captives -- including the
former leaders of Artsakh (Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh) -- in military
courtrooms, to which international media and observers have been denied access.
In a press release, the Center for Truth and Justice (CFTJ) requested that
Azerbaijan allow international legal experts to observe the trials. The request
remains unanswered. The next court hearings are slated for January 27, during
which court decisions are expected to be announced. As of now, the trials are
open only to Azerbaijani state media.
Azerbaijan's ethnic cleansing against the Armenian people of Artsakh has been
proceeding for the past four years. Azerbaijan – with the help of Turkey --
launched an aggressive war against Artsakh that lasted 44 days -- between
September 27 and November 9, 2020. The aggressors committed countless crimes and
indiscriminately shelled the indigenous lands of Armenians, where around 120,000
Armenians resided in the South Caucasus. Azeri soldiers posted videos and photos
of themselves beheading and mutilating Armenians.
The trilateral ceasefire agreement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia on
November 9, 2020 was supposed to halt the war. The agreement mandates the
exchange of prisoners of war (POWs), hostages and detainees, as well as the
repatriation of the remains of deceased individuals. Armenia has honored the
agreement, but Azerbaijan has still not.
After the Azeri bombardment of Artsakh in September 2023, Azerbaijan took even
more Armenians hostage. As of now, according to official Armenian data,
Azerbaijan is holding 23 prisoners of war and political prisoners. Christian
Solidarity International (CSI) says that the true figure may be as high as 100,
and calls for all Armenian hostages to be released without delay.
Some of the detained individuals include Davit Babayan, former Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Artsakh, Arkady Ghukasyan, former president of Artsakh,
Arayik Harutyunyan, former president of Artsakh, Davit Ishkhanyan, chairman of
the National Assembly of Artsakh, Davit Manukyan, former deputy commander of the
Artsakh Armed Forces, Levon Mnatsakanyan, former commander of the Armed Forces,
Bako Sahakyan, former president of Artsakh, and Ruben Vardanyan, former State
Minister of Artsakh.
Vardanyan, who has been detained by Azerbaijan since September 27, 2023, issued
a statement posted on social media by his family on January 16. He is being
tried separately from the other 15 Armenians. He said that he had not been given
enough time to prepare his defense on 42 charges, including terrorism:
"A court hearing of my case is scheduled for January 17 at 3:00 PM. I have been
informed that I am facing 42 charges, some of which carry sentences up to life
imprisonment. However, I have not been granted the opportunity to fully review
the official indictment. My lawyer and I were merely allowed to skim through 422
volumes of the case files, all written solely in the Azerbaijani language, which
I do not understand, within a very short timeframe – from December 9, 2024, to
January 8, 2025. I only received the list of charges in Russian on January 8,
2025.
"Moreover pressure has been exerted on me, my lawyer, and my interpreter to
force us to backdate and sign documents, include] ng falsified protocols and
records of interrogations that never took place.
"I officially declare: I have given no testimony since the day of my arrest,
except during the first interrogation, where I only stated my name and surname.
Let me reiterate: all protocols bearing my signature are falsifications. These
documents do not exist in reality. My lawyer and interpreter were coerced into
signing these documents.
"I once again reiterate and state my complete innocence and the innocence of my
Armenian compatriots also being held as political prisoners and demand an
immediate end to this politically motivated case against us."
The court denied Vardanyan's request to merge his case with those of the others.
His trial is set to resume on January 27.
The people of Artsakh democratically elected their representatives through a
direct vote. The term "elected representatives of Nagorno Karabakh" is recorded
in several documents of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in
Europe.
The former leaders of Artsakh are not the only Armenian hostages held by
Azerbaijan. Since 2020, Azerbaijan has taken many Armenian civilians and
soldiers hostage during and in the aftermath of Azeri military attacks.
Azerbaijan tortured and murdered many of them.
One of the Armenian hostages tortured in an Azeri prison is Vicken Euljekjian, a
dual citizen of Armenia and Lebanon. Azeri soldiers detained him on November 10,
2020, near the Armenian city of Shushi in Artsakh, currently occupied by
Azerbaijan. The detention reportedly took place 10 hours after the ceasefire had
gone into effect. Soon after, he was transferred, along with other Armenian
hostages, to a prison in Baku, Azerbaijan's capital. A court sentenced
Euljekjian to 20 years imprisonment after a short trial without adequate legal
representation.
Armenia's government and human rights groups condemned the trial as a travesty
of justice. Liparit Drmeyan, an aide to Armenia's representative to the European
Court of Human Rights, said that Euljekjian did not have access to lawyers that
were chosen by him.
Euljekjian's wife, Linda Euljekjian, told Gatestone Institute that he is
suffering from serious physical and mental health problems in prison, and has
requested a retrial and a lawyer, but the Azeri authorities refuse to meet these
requests.
Luciana Minassian, a lawyer and specialist on international law who monitors the
cases of the Armenian hostages in Azerbaijan, told Gatestone:
"Trials that lack transparency and fail to meet the standards of due process
transform the judicial system into a tool for political retribution. This not
only violates the Geneva Conventions but also damages the credibility of the
prosecuting state, inviting international condemnation and setting a dangerous
precedent for future conflicts. Releasing POWs immediately is not just a legal
obligation—it is a moral imperative. Compliance with the Geneva Conventions
preserves the integrity of international law, reinforces mutual respect among
warring parties, and ensures that states remain accountable to their
commitments.
"However, Azerbaijan continues to ill-treat and even torture the Armenian
hostages it illegally holds."
Despite the November 9, 2020 ceasefire agreement, the Azeri aggression or
threats against Armenia have never ended. On September 12, 2022, Azerbaijan
launched a deadly attack across several regions of Armenia's eastern border,
killing more than 200 Armenian soldiers and capturing parts of southern Armenia.
During that military offensive, Azeri soldiers raped, slaughtered, and mutilated
an Armenian female soldier. They then posted on social media images of her
abused and tortured body.
In December 2022, Azerbaijan started its starvation siege targeting Artsakh. For
nine months, Armenians in Artsakh were blockaded by Azeri forces and deprived of
sufficient food, medication and their right to freely travel. And on September
19 and 20, 2023, Azerbaijan bombed Artsakh and forcibly displaced the entire
Armenian population – around 120,000 people.
Kathryn Hemmer, a human rights scholar and Genocide Studies Program student
fellow at Yale University, wrote of Artsakh:
"The territory, which declared independence in 1991, was home to a predominantly
ethnic Armenian population until Azerbaijan launched a 10-month blockade and
military assault in 2023. Now, the continued imprisonment of many of
Nagorno-Karabakh's leaders has further victimized a population that just
experienced what is arguably one of the most overlooked episodes of ethnic
cleansing in recent history."
The Trump administration needs to make Azerbaijan release these hostages. US
President Donald Trump needs to sanction Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and
other Azeri officials for carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing against
Nagorno-Karabakh that continues to threaten the territorial integrity of Armenia
while refusing to release the Armenian POWs and hostages.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone
Institute.
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Turkey is more dangerous to Israel than Iran
Amine Ayoub/Ynetnews/January 24/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139399/
Opinion: Turkey’s influence is more widespread, ideological, and interconnected
with a larger regional power struggle, its ambitions, support for Islamist
groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, threatens to destabilize the Middle East
order
In recent years, the Middle East has witnessed shifting geopolitical alliances,
with Turkey emerging as a major force in the region. While Iran has long been
considered Israel's most dangerous adversary due to its nuclear ambitions,
military support for proxy groups, and anti-Israel rhetoric, a closer
examination reveals that Turkey poses an even greater threat to Israel’s
security. This threat is not only shaped by Turkey's regional ambitions but also
by its ideological alignment with groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, which
directly challenges Israel's stability.
Historically, Israel and Turkey shared a pragmatic relationship, especially
during the 1990s and early 2000s, based on mutual security concerns and common
interests. However, this alliance began to deteriorate under the leadership of
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose foreign policy has significantly
shifted toward an aggressive stance in the Middle East. Erdogan’s Turkey has
increasingly positioned itself as a challenger to the existing regional order,
adopting policies that frequently clash with Israel's interests.
One of the most significant factors contributing to Turkey's potential threat to
Israel is its close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), a Sunni Islamist
movement founded in Egypt in 1928. The Muslim Brotherhood advocates for the
establishment of an Islamic caliphate, based on the interpretation of Islamic
law, and has historically been hostile to Israel’s existence.
Over the past decade, Turkey under Erdogan has forged an alliance with the MB,
offering political, military, and financial support to the group and its
affiliates across the Arab world. In countries like Egypt, Libya, and Syria,
Turkey has supported Islamist factions linked to the MB, a move that directly
undermines Israeli interests. The Brotherhood’s ideology is fundamentally
opposed to the Jewish state, viewing Israel as an occupier of Muslim lands, and
has historically called for its destruction. While Iran’s threat to Israel is
largely military and focused on the nuclear issue, Turkey’s connection with the
Muslim Brotherhood represents a deeper, ideological challenge. This is
particularly concerning as Turkey uses its political and military clout to
spread MB-affiliated ideologies throughout the Arab world, which could
destabilize the region further and create more hostile environments for Israel.
Beyond ideological support, Turkey’s growing military presence in key conflict
zones like Syria poses a direct security threat to Israel. Erdogan’s
intervention in Syria, where Turkey has backed rebel groups, including some with
links to extremist factions, has had significant implications for Israel.
While the Syrian civil war initially seemed distant from Israeli interests, the
increasing presence of Turkish-backed forces in northern Syria, coupled with
Erdogan’s repeated threats to attack Kurdish forces (who are key allies of the
West and the U.S.), has created a volatile environment on Israel’s northeastern
border. Israel is already concerned about Iranian military entrenchment in
Syria, where Iran has established bases and provided weapons to Hezbollah and
other militias that pose a direct threat. However, Turkey’s expanding role in
Syria presents a different kind of challenge. While Iranian forces are generally
viewed as adversaries, Turkish forces might be seen as a more unpredictable
threat, particularly given their support for Sunni Islamist factions and the
potential for these groups to become proxies for Turkish interests.
If these forces, which may include MB-affiliated groups, gain power in Syria,
they could target Israeli interests, either through direct military action or by
encouraging anti-Israel sentiment in the region.
Moreover, Turkey’s military presence in Libya, where it backs the Government of
National Unity (GNA) in the ongoing civil war, has raised concerns in Israel.
The possibility of Turkey establishing a permanent military foothold in North
Africa would create a new front against Israel, given the proximity of North
Africa to Europe and Israel’s own borders. This could enable Turkey to
destabilize the broader Mediterranean region, where Israel has critical economic
and military interests, including gas exploration and maritime security.
Given Turkey’s growing role in Syria and its close ties to the Muslim
Brotherhood, Israel faces a complex challenge in the region. The ideological
underpinnings of Turkey's foreign policy make it a potentially more dangerous
adversary than Iran. Iran’s threat is primarily centered around nuclear weapons
and military support for Hezbollah and other groups, but Turkey’s influence is
more widespread, ideological, and interconnected with larger regional power
struggles. Turkey’s ambitions in the Middle East, coupled with its support for
Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, threaten to reshape the regional
order in ways that undermine Israel's security.
Given the growing threat from Turkey, Israel must reconsider its strategic
posture in the region. While Iran remains a primary focus due to its nuclear
program and military entrenchment, Israel must also account for the ideological
challenge posed by Turkey’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood. Strengthening
alliances with Arab nations that are wary of Turkish expansion—such as Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—could help counterbalance Turkey’s regional influence.
Additionally, Israel must continue to build up its military capabilities,
particularly in air defense and intelligence gathering, to counter Turkey’s
growing military footprint in Syria and Libya. Israel should also increase its
diplomatic efforts to expose Turkey’s destabilizing role in the region, while
reinforcing its own relationships with Kurdish groups and other non-Islamist
factions in Syria. By doing so, Israel can maintain a flexible and comprehensive
approach to the multi-dimensional threat posed by Turkey, ensuring its long-term
security in an increasingly unstable Middle East. While Iran has long been
considered Israel’s greatest threat, the rise of Turkey as a regional power with
a close ideological connection to the Muslim Brotherhood represents a
potentially more dangerous challenge. Turkey’s military interventions, its
support for Sunni Islamist groups, and its ambitions to restore Ottoman-era
influence place it in direct opposition to Israeli interests. As such, Israel
must adopt a multi-pronged strategy that addresses both the military and
ideological aspects of the Turkish threat. In doing so, Israel can safeguard its
security and navigate the increasingly complex dynamics of the Middle East.
Amine Ayoub, a Middle East Forum fellow, is a policy analyst and writer.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1gtc1z00kg
How Dearborn became symbol of pro-Iranian influence in
America
Eran Lahav/Ynetnews/January 24/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139395/
Opinion: Majority-Muslim cities Dearborn and Dearborn Heights allegedly foster
quiet jihad in America, with deep ties to Iran, Hezbollah, and anti-Western
agendas.
Dearborn, a city with a predominantly Arab and Muslim population, recently made
headlines when most of its residents voted for Trump. It has long been known as
"America's Jihad capital". This Detroit suburb is infamous for its widespread
support for the Palestinians and Iran's proxy organizations, which are
designated as terrorist groups by the United States. However, Dearborn has a
twin city right next to it, just as extreme: Meet Dearborn Heights. Dearborn
Heights, a newer Detroit suburb, also has a significant Muslim population,
primarily Shiite, which supports Iran and Hezbollah. In July, Shiite ceremonies
were held at the Islamic House of Wisdom in Dearborn Heights. During these
events, local Islamic scholar Hussein Al-Nashed praised Iran and Hezbollah. Al-Nashed
stated: "It is only with the Islamic Revolution that our lot has changed." He
went on to praise Ayatollah Khomeini, the architect of the revolution, saying,
"(Khomeini) taught you dignity... and honored your religion (as a Shiite)." Al-Nashed
further claimed that in America, there is no freedom of thought. "If I want to
think for myself… and I say 'you know what, Hezbollah is actually not bad,
Hezbollah is a very good thing', next thing I know, the FBI is at my doorstep.
Is that freedom of thought?" Al-Nashed argues that the problem lies with the
United States itself, which opposes states and entities like Iran and Hezbollah.
This is just one example of the rhetoric within Muslim communities that
encourages resistance to democratic regimes in Western countries while
supporting extremist, anti-Western Islamic elements like Iran and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s stronghold in the US
The situation is similar in Dearborn, its twin Jihad Capital. Here too, an
agenda is being promoted that opposes the United States or any other Western
entity for that matter, while glorifying extremist elements. In the case of the
Islamic Center of America in Dearborn, these are individuals who were directly
responsible for harming American civilians and soldiers. In July, a large
gathering commemorated the memory of Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, a prominent
Lebanese Shiite scholar, regarded as a spiritual leader of Hezbollah. His
writings were instrumental in shaping the ideological foundations of the
Lebanese terrorist organization. Fadlallah issued a fatwa (religious decree)
authorizing the suicide bombing of the multinational force barracks in Beirut in
October 1983. That attack killed 241 American Marines, 58 French soldiers, and
six civilians. Despite his pivotal role in authorizing this horrific attack by
issuing the fatwa, Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah is now honored with memorials on
American soil. Annual memorial services for Fadlallah have been held since his
death in 2010. These ceremonies are organized by a local charity associated with
Hezbollah, known as Al-Mabarrat Charitable Organization. In 2006, Al-Mabarrat
was accused of being part of a global fundraising infrastructure for Hezbollah,
including operations in the United States and Canada.
Further evidence of Al-Mabarrat's deep ties to Hezbollah lies in the fact that
Fadlallah personally managed the organization until his death in 2010. Today,
his son, Ja'far Fadlallah, leads the charity and also serves as its "General
Religious Supervisor."
Dearborn and Dearborn Heights are majority-Muslim cities that promote a quiet
jihad within America. Both cities have significant ties and deep connections to
Iran and Hezbollah. Numerous charitable organizations in these communities have
been advancing an anti-American, anti-Western agenda for many years.
President Donald Trump garnered significant support from Muslim voters, who were
protesting President Biden’s administration's backing of Israel during the war
in Gaza. Trump thus became the first Republican candidate since 2000 to win a
majority of votes in Dearborn. It is no coincidence that the person scheduled to
speak at Trump's inauguration was the extremist Shiite imam, Husham al-Husseini,
a Hezbollah supporter from the Karbala Shiite Islamic Center in Dearborn who
holds strongly anti-Israel views. It should be noted that in the end, it was
decided that in light of al-Husseini's factional views and his support for the
terrorist organization Hezbollah, he would not speak at Trump's inauguration.
After Trump appointed a strongly pro-Israel cabinet, Muslims referred to it as a
"cabinet that supports extreme Israel." These reactions reveal the interests of
the Muslim community in the United States and its efforts to influence American
policy in favor of Arab interests. The new administration must be attentive to
the motives of Islamic entities, like those in America’s jihad capitals, whose
goals conflict with American interests. This marks another phase in the process
of silent jihad, as America’s two jihad capitals—strongholds of Iran and
Hezbollah—lead a direct anti-American agenda.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1dzimw00jg
Video/Text/Arabic & English/Gaza Ceasefire: Implications
for Israel, Hamas, and U.S. Policy
Dennis Ross, Matthew Levitt, Neomi Neumann/The Washington Institute./January
25/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/139389/
Former Israeli and U.S. officials discuss the deal’s timing, provisions, and
near-term prospects, outlining the Trump administration’s practical options for
advancing peace in Gaza and beyond.
On January 17, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Dennis
Ross, Matthew Levitt, and Neomi Neumann. Ross is the Institute’s Davidson
Distinguished Fellow and a former U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, with
service in four administrations. Levitt is the Institute’s Fromer-Wexler Senior
Fellow, director of its Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence,
and former deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S.
Treasury Department. Neumann is a visiting fellow at the Institute, former head
of the research unit at the Israel Security Agency, and coauthor (with Ghaith
al-Omari) of the 2024 report “Reforming the Palestinian Authority: A Roadmap for
Change.” The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
Dennis Ross
The terms of the new Gaza ceasefire are virtually identical to the ones that
Israel presented to President Biden in late May; what seems to have pushed the
agreement over the finish line is the “Trump effect.” The remarkable
coordination between the outgoing and incoming administrations signaled to
Egypt, Qatar, and Israel that concluding the agreement was a priority for
Washington despite the change in office. Incoming Middle East envoy Steve
Witkoff’s participation in the late stages of the negotiations suggests that the
Trump administration is prepared to remain engaged on the agreement’s subsequent
phases.
For its part, Hamas seems desperate for a reprieve and presently has little
incentive to violate the ceasefire. This will make it all the more difficult for
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to break the agreement himself, especially if
Trump presses Israel to honor its terms. Normalization between Saudi Arabia and
Israel is a top regional priority for Trump, and this is impossible with Israeli
troops still in Gaza.
As the ceasefire continues, several key challenges must be addressed:
Preventing the smuggling of weapons and other materiel to Hamas, especially
across the Egypt-Gaza border.
Choking off funding to the group.
Closely monitoring how materials meant for reconstruction are used.
Establishing an interim administration that can provide civil order to Gaza and
prevent Hamas from reasserting power.
The terms of the agreement bring immediate gains for Israelis and Palestinians
alike: namely, the return of hostages, and a halt to the bombardments that have
produced a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. In the longer term, however, the deal
does not address the looming questions that will determine the conflict’s
outcome. If the Trump administration uses the agreement as a launching point for
intensive diplomatic engagement on this issue, there is great potential for
major progress. Yet regardless of the administration’s willingness to engage, a
fraught implementation process lies ahead.
Matthew Levitt
Many analysts have pointed to the severe damage inflicted on Iran’s “axis of
resistance”—Hamas’s military capabilities in particular—as proof of the group’s
strategic failure. Yet the truth is that Hamas was willing to suffer losses in
carrying out a spectacular attack against Israelis so long as it remains part of
Gaza’s political fabric once the dust settles. Apparently, its true strategy is
to relinquish its governance role in Gaza and refocus attention and resources on
its doctrinal mandate of jihad against Israel. For all its losses in personnel,
equipment, infrastructure, and leadership since October 7, Hamas can now wave
its flags in Gaza and claim victory simply by virtue of surviving. The loss of
civilian lives was another cost it was willing to pay—as Hamas leaders
repeatedly stated, the group aimed to win the battle for international public
opinion by forcing Israel to inflict heavy damage that resulted in civilian
casualties.
Of course, rolling out a few hundred fighters to celebrate the ceasefire and
swarm the Red Cross vehicles transferring hostages back to Israel does not mean
that Hamas is capable of running Gaza—nor does it want to. Again, the group is
eager to give up the burdens of governance in favor of a Hezbollah-style model
in which it retains influence over local politics but is not burdened by
bureaucracy. This is why forming an alternative governance structure in Gaza is
of paramount importance. Without another entity exercising authority over the
civil administration, Hamas will simply exert itself over select government
functions that serve its interests best, furthering its strategy of weaponizing
Gaza’s state apparatus without expending substantial resources of its own.
In terms of personnel, some observers claim that the group has recruited as many
fighters as it has lost in the past fifteen months, but this seems unlikely.
Even if numerically true, it would not account for the difference in quality of
fighters lost compared to new recruits. Israel has killed huge numbers of
militants with many years of experience, while most of the new recruits seem to
be vulnerable children with no combat experience who join Hamas for pennies a
day.
Regarding the ceasefire, it is important to recognize that for Israel, the
agreement will only ever be a temporary cessation of hostilities. Israeli forces
will likely transition from full-scale war in Gaza to night raids and targeted
counterterrorism operations, complicating the question of who is willing and
able to fill the governance vacuum. As the Trump administration takes the helm,
it must ensure that the ceasefire does not set up conditions that advance
Hamas’s strategy or undermine the peace that the agreement seeks to bring about.
Neomi Neumann
The signing of the ceasefire agreement raises two key questions: Why did the
deal materialize now after sitting on the table since May? And what are its
implications for both sides?
For Hamas, anything that enables it to survive is considered an achievement at
this point. The timing of the deal was therefore tied to the perception that the
“hostages card” was losing its value for Hamas over time as more of the captives
died. Moreover, local conditions have become more difficult for Gazans in the
months since winter arrived, likely spurring even Hamas’s supporters to ask the
group to stop the war and ease the losses, destruction, and disease.
For Israel’s part, Prime Minister Netanyahu was convinced to sign the agreement
due to pressure from the incoming Trump administration. Now that he has obtained
a temporary reprieve from U.S. and domestic pressure, Netanyahu will likely have
greater leeway to confront other regional challenges—especially Iran, but also
potential threats from Syria and Turkey.
It is unclear if the ceasefire deal will reach its third and final stage, which
is supposed to include major tasks such as implementing a five-year
reconstruction plan, enshrining the military disarmament of Hamas, and lifting
the Israeli blockade on Gaza. This progress will mainly depend on the extent of
Trump’s commitment to advancing the deal and his willingness to fully shut down
the fighting in Gaza. If Washington and its partners do not foster an
alternative to Hamas governance, the group will eventually recover, reassert its
rule in Gaza, and increase its malign influence in the West Bank, essentially
returning to the pre-October 7 reality.
To prevent this scenario, the best solution at present is to let the Palestinian
Authority return to Gaza and take over. This is hardly an ideal option, but it
is less bad than the available alternatives of Hamas rule, chaos, or global
jihad.
This summary was prepared by Cleary Waldo. The Policy Forum series is made
possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.
About the Authors
Ambassador Dennis Ross
Dennis Ross
Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, is the
counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of the Reinhard
Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.
Neomi Neumann
Neomi Neumann is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on
Palestinian affairs. She formerly served as head of the research unit at the
Israel Security Agency, or Shin Bet, and with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Neumann recently began her doctoral studies at Tel Aviv University.
Iran Makes Second Effort to Recover IRGC Officer from Iraqi
Custody
Michael Knights/The Washington Institute,/January 24/2025
Iran wants Iraq to hand over the IRGC officer who orchestrated the 2021
kidnap-murder of U.S. citizen Stephen Troell: this is not the first time Iran
has leveraged Iraqi militia factions to seek his release.
Open imageiconIRGCQF captain Mohammad Reza Nouri with Qassem Soleimani
Figure 1: IRGCQF captain Mohammad Reza Nouri with Qassem Soleimani inna
photograph provided in the U.S. government deposition.
On December 20, 2024, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) unsealed
its criminal case against Iranian national Mohammad Reza Nouri (also known as
Muhammad Rida Husayn, Ali Asghar Nuri, and Abu Abbas) in connection with Nouri’s
alleged role in orchestrating the November 7, 2022 murder of American Stephen
Troell in Baghdad. In the case, the U.S. describes Nouri as a captain in the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and an “advisor to armed
militia groups in Iraq”. The 28-page unsealed deposition by a FBI special agent
provides extensive detail on Nouri’s command of the nine-man Iraqi cell (drawn
from unnamed multiple “militias”, plural) that sought to kidnap at least three
persons and intended to murder at least seven others (including U.S. citizens)
in a campaign intended to avenge the death of Qassem Soleimani and build
leverage over the U.S. through hostage-taking.
With strong U.S. urging, Iraqi authorities seized four Iraqi suspects (from the
nine-man cell) and one Iranian (Nouri) between the November 2022 killing and the
March 26, 2023 arrest of Nouri in Iraq. It was in late March 2023, between
Nouri’s arrest and the commencement of investigative proceedings on March 29,
that the first effort was made by Iran to release the Iranian. At that time,
three persons approached the Iraqi judiciary to seek Nouri’s release: namely
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, an Iranian IRGC-QF colonel known as
Hajji Jawad (the direct commander of Nouri), and Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s deputy head,
Jawad al-Talibawi. At the time, these officials made the argument that the four
(of nine) Iraqis in detention for the Troell slaying would be enough to satisfy
the Americans but that the Iranian should be released.
Instead, the Iraqi judiciary (with strong U.S. urging) held on to Nouri and the
four Iraqis (Haydar Yousef Akab Hachem, Muhammad Qasim Salih Mahdi, Ali Malik
Hamid Majid, and Ali Jamil Ajeel Saghi). All five (at the time unnamed in
public) were found guilty of acts of terrorism and sentenced by the Karkh
Criminal Court on August 31, 2023 to life imprisonment – itself a notable
compromise as their actions were legally punishable by death penalty. In October
2023, the five names were leaked and became public, though identifying
photographs of the men were not made available and, uncommonly again, no
confessions were televised.
IRGCQF captain Mohammad Reza Nouri and Akram Kaabi
Figure 2: Mohammad Reza Nouri with Nujaba head Akram al-Kaabi.
In June 2024, the case took another turn. Iran International stated that the
IRGC-QF, Iran’s judiciary and Iran’s foreign ministry all sought to recover
Nouri. According to Iran International, Kazem Gharibabadi, the assistant to the
head of the judiciary for international affairs in Iran, claimed that Iran had
successfully fought U.S. efforts to get Nouri (who they refer to as a “media
advisor”) extradited to the United States, and Sharqiya News reported
Gharibabadi as saying that Iran had successfully shifted Nouri’s charges from
Iraq’s anti-terrorism law to criminal law instead. Iran International connected
Nouri to U.S.-designated terrorist organization Harakat al-Nujaba at the time.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency published pictures of Mohammad Reza Nouri next to
Akram al-Kaabi, the Nujaba secretary-general (Figure 2).
Now Iran appears to be seeking Nouri’s release again, this time as one of over a
hundred Iranians that have been listed to take part in a prisoner swap between
the two countries. Iran and Iraq have a mechanism to exchange sentenced
prisoners to allow them to serve their sentences in their home country. Mohammad
Reza Nouri is among the 100-plus names recently submitted to the Iraqi Ministry
of Justice by Iran to be included in a prisoner swap. Pressure is now being felt
by Iraqi judges, brought in particular by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani
after he returned from his mid-January trip to Iran, where Sudani met Nouri’s
relatives.
U.S. pressure has thus far prevented Sudani from achieving Nouri’s release, and
maintenance of this U.S. pressure is vital if the Iran-backed Coordination
Framework is to be prevented from removing Nouri before he can be extradited to
the United States to be tried for crimes that carry multiple life sentences. The
four convicted Iraqis should be identified by image, in order to aid
surveillance that they have not been quietly released, and future amnesties in
Iraq should be carefully monitored for signs of their release. The remaining
five attackers at large – including Ali Abdal-Ridha Salih Alwan al-Batbuti (also
known as Ali Farfona), the man who actually shot Troell, a son-in-law of AAH’s
Jawad al-Talibawi – should also be vigorously pursued if they reappear in Iraq.
The Stephen Troell case should become a visible bellwether for whether this and
future Iraqi governments are serious about being a friend and partner of the
United States.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/iran-makes-second-effort-recover-irgc-officer-iraqi-custody
Opening the Floodgates: The Gaza Deal and Trump’s
Presidency
Assaf Orion/The Washington Institute,/January 24/2025
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/opening-floodgates-gaza-deal-and-trumps-presidency
The ceasefire is already shaking up Israel’s politics and high command; prompt,
well-coordinated action with Washington could help counter threats on several
external fronts as well.
Two events in the past week—the Gaza ceasefire agreement and President Trump’s
inauguration—may herald a flood that removes logjams and catalyzes a strategic
reset in Israel and the Middle East. To realize this potential, U.S. and Israel
officials will need to collaborate on proactive policy initiatives regarding
Gaza, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
If the ceasefire holds, it could end the bloody chapter that began on October 7
and usher in a new phase pregnant with opportunities, disappointments, and
risks. Joy over the release of hostages awaits, alongside mourning over the dead
and anger over the implications of releasing terrorists as part of the prisoner
exchange.
Yet significant challenges—especially in Israeli politics—may undermine the
ceasefire and impede its next phases, as Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
attempts to balance between ending the war and ensuring the survival of his
coalition government. Trump’s pressure is what tipped Netanyahu toward signing
the agreement, and continued U.S. pressure will be needed if the deal is to
advance vital interests shared by Washington, Jerusalem, and other regional
partners.
Cascading Effects on Seven Fronts
Since the October 7 attack, Israel has fought a war on seven fronts, achieving
significant military gains. The ceasefire may mark the end of that war, though
remaining threats on each front—as well as complications on the domestic
“front”—demand follow-on efforts to transform these gains into sustainable
strategic achievements.
Gaza. The ceasefire immediately reduced the fighting in Gaza and will soon
decrease the Israeli troop presence there as well. Despite losing much of its
fighting force and military capabilities, however, Hamas retains significant
guerrilla, rocket, and tunnel capabilities. It has also leveraged control over
local distribution of humanitarian aid to continue ruling much of the Strip,
recruiting new fighters, and rebuilding itself in preparation for the future
conflicts that Hamas leaders swore to wage mere hours after signing the deal.
Hence, Israel’s war objective of destroying the group’s governance capabilities
remains unfulfilled.
Negotiations are soon expected to unfold regarding the terms of the ceasefire’s
second phase, including the exchange of all remaining hostages for more—and
worse—Palestinian prisoners and a wider Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal.
The deal will also compel the Israeli government to finally explore alternatives
to Hamas governance that do not involve Israeli control, and that go beyond just
curbing the group’s rearmament through the Egyptian border and other crossings.
This entails shaping international plans for Gaza’s reconstruction and
demilitarization while formulating security arrangements following IDF
withdrawals.
As these efforts unfold, the war’s devastation will dominate Gaza’s landscape
for years, and the high Palestinian death toll will likely fuel further legal
and diplomatic actions against Israel. Increased media access to Gaza and
recovery of bodies in the rubble will only increase these pressures.
The West Bank. A combination of a weakening Palestinian Authority, increasing
Palestinian terrorism, aggressive Israeli countermeasures, and lenient law
enforcement against violent crimes by Jewish extremists has created a highly
combustible situation in the West Bank. Hamas will no doubt seek to worsen this
situation in the near term, exploiting the release of its prisoners to further
undermine PA rule and escalate attacks against Israel. The continued flow of
arms and funds through Jordan exacerbates these threats.
Even as it approved the ceasefire in Gaza, the Israeli government added a new
war goal: to severely degrade terrorist organizations in the West Bank. Toward
this end, it reinforced the IDF presence on that front after units completed
their missions in Gaza. On January 21, the IDF began a new offensive in Jenin—“Operation
Iron Wall”—and erected massive roadblocks across the West Bank. Concurrently,
groups of Israeli civilians conducted violent rampages in the Palestinian
villages of al-Funduq, Sinjil, and Turmus Aya, setting fire to cars and houses
and attacking locals. Some of these attackers were shot by Israeli police.
Lebanon. Hezbollah has suffered major losses, accepted a humiliating ceasefire,
and now faces a new president and prime minister who may threaten its interests.
Despite these positive developments, however, formidable challenges remain, from
disarming the group and demilitarizing southern Lebanon to ensuring the safe
return of residents in northern Israel.
Syria. The collapse of the Assad regime is a blow to Iran’s “axis of resistance”
and Hezbollah’s rearmament efforts. Yet it also carries the risk of chaos, an
Islamic State resurgence, and/or the creation of an Islamist regime backed by
Turkey. Moreover, Iran’s efforts to reassert its influence and other threats
will intensify if the Trump administration decides to withdraw U.S. troops.
Iran. The regime has been weakened by direct strikes inside Iran and the loss of
strategic depth in Syria and Lebanon. Tehran now stands at a crucial
crossroads—between pursuing nuclear weapons or accepting a new deal, and between
rethinking its proxy enterprise or doubling down on restoring its sway in the
Fertile Crescent.
Iraq. Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq have ceased attacks on Israel for fear
of retaliation, amid ongoing discussions about (and threats against) the U.S.
presence there.
Yemen. When the Gaza deal was signed, the Houthis announced that they would stop
attacking non-Israeli vessels in the Red Sea area immediately and halt attacks
on Israeli ships more gradually, “upon the full implementation of all phases of
the agreement.” Yet their willingness to make good on this pledge is uncertain,
and they reserved the option to widen their campaign again if fighting resumes
in Gaza or the West Bank. (These developments will be discussed in greater
detail in a forthcoming PolicyWatch.) More broadly, the group has been
emboldened by the international attention and revenue it has received over the
past year and a half and remains a significant threat to Israel, U.S. forces,
regional stability, and maritime security.
The Eighth Front Is Domestic
For over a year, the October 7 crisis held up a slew of vital political and
legal processes inside Israel. The government repeatedly used the state of war
to justify suppressing protests, ignoring public demands for a commission of
inquiry, and dismissing calls for early elections and the resignation of those
responsible for the catastrophe. The war was also used as a pretext to delay
Netanyahu’s criminal trial, potentially giving the prime minister a personal
interest in perpetuating the conflict.
When the ceasefire terms were announced last week—reportedly identical to
President Biden’s proposal from May—pressure from Trump was the wild card that
made Netanyahu willing to brave secession threats from his coalition partners
and accept the deal. Predictably, the removal of the wartime logjam opened the
floodgates of domestic action.
Immediately after the ceasefire, the party of National Security Minister Itamar
Ben-Gvir resigned from the government, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich
threatened to step down if the deal’s second phase is approved. Because the
departure of far-right parties could bring down Netanyahu’s coalition, the prime
minister will have strong incentive to take actions that appease his partners
but potentially threaten the ceasefire. For example, his quick approval of more
aggressive military operations in the West Bank—Smotrich’s top priority—was a
timely response to rising threats there.
Elsewhere, IDF chief of staff Gen. Herzi Halevi announced his resignation on
January 21, two days after the ceasefire. He was followed by the head of
Southern Command, and more generals will surely look for the exit door soon. The
government is also expected to press the head of the Israel Security Agency to
resign, centralizing more powers under Netanyahu’s hand and potentially
increasing public calls for similar moves at the political level.
Meanwhile, Israeli sentiment is already shifting amid the return of hostages and
bodies, the cessation of hostilities, and images of released terrorists. This
could ignite protests for and against the deal, as well as louder demands for a
state inquiry and calls for early elections.
Policy Implications
Coming at the start of Trump’s presidency, the Gaza ceasefire could serve as the
first success of his “peace through strength” doctrine and appeal to his
aspirations as a peacemaker. In particular, the decline in fighting may enable
Washington and Jerusalem to focus on larger strategic issues such as countering
Iran’s nuclear program and expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi
Arabia. Progress on these issues could bring a dramatic shift in the strategic
landscape—though they require changes in Israel’s Palestinian policy, which seem
improbable under the current government.
In any case, officials should focus on the following steps in the near term:
Free all hostages and end the war. Israel should work with the United States and
other partners to fully implement the ceasefire’s first phase and quickly
negotiate the terms of subsequent phases to expedite the release of all hostages
and fully end the war. At the same time, they should prepare alternative plans
in case the fragile ceasefire collapses and fighting resumes—though Washington
would be wise to do whatever it can to ensure that Israel’s domestic politics
are not the cause of this collapse.
End Hamas rule in Gaza. Israel and its partners should take steps to curtail
Hamas control on the ground and prevent the group from resurging and rearming.
This entails a combination of military, diplomatic, economic, and informational
efforts. Effective, moderate governance should be promoted, and reconstruction
must be conditioned on demilitarization.
Prevent Iran from going nuclear and defeat its axis. Israel should work with the
United States to craft a joint strategy on ensuring that Iran never acquires
nuclear weapons. This effort should combine the following: a renewed “maximum
pressure” economic campaign; credible military options (Israeli, American, or
joint), which may well be employed; and a strong agreement that rolls Iran back
from the nuclear threshold. Israel and the United States should also partner
with neighboring states to prevent the recovery of Iran’s “axis of resistance”
and neutralize any continuing threats posed by proxies in Yemen and Iraq.
Expand Arab-Israel peace. Officials should seek new diplomatic breakthroughs in
the region, from establishing formal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia
to announcing a political horizon for the Palestinians and advancing the
conditions needed for a successful peace process in the future.
Stabilize the Levant. Joint efforts are needed to prevent Hezbollah’s recovery,
stabilize the Lebanon ceasefire, address emerging threats from Syria and Turkey,
and safeguard Jordan’s stability.
Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion (Res.) is The Washington Institute’s Rueven International
Fellow and former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division.
Expect the Unexpected with Trump and the Gulf
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute,/January 24/2025
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/expect-unexpected-trump-and-gulf
Whatever the new administration decides on major regional issues—from Gulf
involvement in postwar Gaza to next steps on Iran—local leaders should be
prepared to wait awhile and brace for surprises.
Greetings from Washington, where we have a ringside seat to watch the first days
of the second Trump administration. Lots of the action is taking place a couple
of miles from my home. Motorcades can disrupt simple errands. Friends are
getting jobs—or not. Biden-supporting Democrats are in deep depression.
Perhaps perversely, the subject dominating conversation is not President Trump
but rather the weather. It has been record-breakingly cold, hence Monday’s
ceremony taking place inside Congress rather than in the open overlooking the
Mall. Piles of snow and icy sidewalks are judged the greater imminent peril for
many. Apart from keeping warm, people are trying to
make sense of what is happening. But this is mainly for themselves and America
domestically: the US can be very parochial. The wider world is left trying to
interpret what a few foreign policy phrases, either in formal speeches or in
throwaway lines to journalists, may mean. For the
Gulf, “drill, baby, drill” in Trump’s inauguration speech is likely to have
prompted groans of disappointment. Oil prices have held up in the past few days,
but the longer-term trend can now be predicted to be downwards, faster.
The comment may well have prompted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to call
Trump late on Wednesday to promise $600 billion of Saudi investment in the next
four years. The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund has the money, but an immediate
impact may well be slower investment at home on Vision 2030.
A further groan probably followed Trump’s comment that he may make his
first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, as he did in 2017, if Riyadh promised to
buy another $450 billion of “our product,” presumably military equipment. He
added that “$500 billion” would be preferred, to allow “for all the inflation.”
On Biden’s first day in office back in 2021, the ex-president had announced the
climate crisis and quickly put climate change at the centre of US foreign
policy. But Trump has flipped, announcing that high energy prices are a threat
to the American people, and he has withdrawn the US from the Paris climate
accord.
Offshore wind farm projects are likely to be completed but do not expect any
more (at least for four years). Solar seems also to have a doubtful immediate
future.
The word “Iran” was not in his inauguration speech, prompting the immediate
judgment that he favours diplomacy rather than military action. His Monday
midnight firing of Brian Hook, the hawk who had been leading his Iran transition
team, added weight to this point of view.
The “Mar-a-Lago effect” was blamed by some for this surprise decision—a
reference to informal policy discussions being impacted by personality
differences with factional rivals who, perhaps crucially, hung out with Trump at
his Florida residence.
Gaza formed a backdrop for Trump’s speech at the indoor Capital One sports and
entertainment arena, a second cold weather replacement for what should have been
a march in front of the White House. A group of yellow-scarved Israeli relatives
of the hostages, plus one hostage released earlier, were given pride of place
behind the President, although his message of support was then horrifically
muddled by him referring to the January 6 (2021) insurrectionists who stormed
Congress also as hostages.
The notion of a post-Hamas Gaza, and a Gulf, specifically a UAE, role in its
administration, mediated by Trump, seems far-fetched, at least this week.
Sunday’s release of three Israeli hostages, amid chaotic scenes of Hamas
fighters in Gaza City, suggests the limits of Israel’s victory in the Strip so
far. Trump has been quick to take credit for the hostages’ release, at least in
part by pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The next two parts
of the deal have yet to play out, as well as any arrangement for the release of
the rest of those held captive.
Qatar’s role as a mediator appears to have been crucial. It prompted a meeting
at this week’s Davos conference in Switzerland between the Israeli president,
Isaac Herzog, and Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari prime minister (and
foreign minister).
Both men had spoken to separate audiences but met afterwards. To the surprise of
many familiar with public Israeli antagonism towards Qatar, it was acknowledged
on the website of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
US-supported normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia still seems possible,
although quite how and when is a matter of speculation. It is hardly a
low-hanging fruit.
China and Russia seem to be the bigger issues in Washington. Beijing may be
anxious for new diplomacy. A vice-president attended the inauguration in what
was interpreted as a significant goodwill gesture.
But do not expect anything too quickly, short of a surprise event in the US or
somewhere in the world. The new administration may want to give the impression
of hitting the ground running, but appointments and Senate confirmations take
time.
In Gulf terms, the crucial indicator perhaps should be who comes to Washington
first rather than where Trump makes his first foreign trip. The answer, at least
at the moment, seems likely to be Netanyahu in February, who may be pushing a
breakthrough with Saudi Arabia or support for Israel’s position in Gaza.
Patience is necessary and, especially with Trump, expect the unexpected.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and
director of its Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy. This article was
originally published on the Arabian Gulf Business Insight website.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/expect-unexpected-trump-and-gulf
About the Authors
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program
on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy
matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.