English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 12/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Indeed, we live as human beings, but we do not wage war according to human standards; for the weapons of our warfare are not merely human, but they have divine power to destroy strongholds
Second Letter to the Corinthians 10/01-11/:"I myself, Paul, appeal to you by the meekness and gentleness of Christ I who am humble when face to face with you, but bold towards you when I am away! I ask that when I am present I need not show boldness by daring to oppose those who think we are acting according to human standards. Indeed, we live as human beings, but we do not wage war according to human standards; for the weapons of our warfare are not merely human, but they have divine power to destroy strongholds. We destroy arguments and every proud obstacle raised up against the knowledge of God, and we take every thought captive to obey Christ. We are ready to punish every disobedience when your obedience is complete. Look at what is before your eyes. If you are confident that you belong to Christ, remind yourself of this, that just as you belong to Christ, so also do we. Now, even if I boast a little too much of our authority, which the Lord gave for building you up and not for tearing you down, I will not be ashamed of it. I do not want to seem as though I am trying to frighten you with my letters. For they say, ‘His letters are weighty and strong, but his bodily presence is weak, and his speech contemptible.’ Let such people understand that what we say by letter when absent, we will also do when present.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 11-12/2025
Text & Video: Najib Mikati’s Return As PM Will Doom President Joseph Aoun’s Term, Perpetuate Hezbollah’s Occupation, and Block Reform and Change/Elias Bejjani/January 11/2025
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Elias Bejjani: Text and Video: The Story Is Over, Joseph Aoun Appointed President by Saudi-Iranian-American Agreement... Come On, Let's Celebrate/January 9, 2025
Text & Video: Dima Sadek's Documentary on Shiite Victimhood is a Blatant and Shameless Falsification/Elias Bejjani/January 07/2025
Congratulations to the South... Congratulations to Al-Aaishiyah ... Congratulations to Lebanon/Colonel Charbel Barakat /11 January 2025
Aoun says to visit Saudi Arabia on first official trip
President Aoun Invited to Riyadh by Saudi Crown Prince
Aoun hopes new govt. will be formed swiftly to 'put things on right track'
Guterres to Visit Lebanon Next Saturday
Syria’s new ruler pledges long-term strategic ties with Lebanon
Syria, Lebanon pledge 'long-term strategic relations' after Assad ouster
Mikati visits Damascus on 1st trip by Lebanese PM since Syria war
Mikati Underlines Urgency of Resolving Syrian Presence in Lebanon in Damascus Talks
Opposition MPs to Nominate Fouad Makhzoumi to Form Next Government
Italy foreign minister visits Beirut as PM pledges support
Who is Joseph Aoun, a low-profile army chief who is now Lebanon's president?
President Joseph Aoun’s Deep Connection to Southern Border Villages/Katia Kahil/This Is Beirut/January 11/2025
Lebanese Army Deploys in Several Border Villages
ExplainerExchange Rate Stability: Lebanese Pound Withstands the Surge/Christiane Tager/This Is Beirut /11 January 2025
Eight Tons of Smuggled Potato Seized in Akkar
Lebanon stands to benefit as Hezbollah, Syria and Iran weaken/Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/January 11/2025

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 11-12/2025
Syria says it foiled Islamic State attack on Sayyida Zeinab shrine
Syrian Authorities Foil ISIS Attack on a Shiite Mausoleum
UAE, Syria foreign ministers arrive in Riyadh
Turkiye’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician as the two sides inch toward peace
Four Daesh members, including two leaders, killed in eastern Iraq
Israel’s Netanyahu sends Mossad director to Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar
Deadly Strikes in Gaza as a New Negotiation Round Starts in Qatar
The Fires Continue to Spread in Los Angeles
US wildfires pose fresh threat despite winds easing
Los Angeles investigates fire blame as curfew enforced
GCC secretary general receives New Zealand’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Sudanese Army Retakes Key City From Paramilitary Forces
Venezuela: Nicolas Maduro Sworn In for a 3rd Term, Opposition Denounces a "Coup d'État"/Javier Tovar/AFP/January 11/2025
Biden honors Pope Francis with the Presidential Medal of Freedom

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on January 11-12/2025
Do Not Fall for Iran's Nuclear Negotiation Trap: A Strategy to Buy Time/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/January 11/ 2025
Don’t blame Israel — it’s Hamas that has put every Gaza hospital in danger/Arsen Ostrovsky, John Spencer and Brian/ The Hill./January 11/2025
With Assad out of the way, will Iran choose realpolitik?/F. Andrew Wolf Jr/The Hill/January 11, 202
US must rethink its Middle East strategy/Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed/Arab News/January 11, 2025
Libya is now the launchpad for Russia’s renewed ambitions/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 11, 2025

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 11-12/2025
Text & Video: Najib Mikati’s Return As PM Will Doom President Joseph Aoun’s Term, Perpetuate Hezbollah’s Occupation, and Block Reform and Change
Elias Bejjani/January 11/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/138949/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-avRPmDoAHs&t=26s
There is no doubt that the sin of designating Mr. Najib Mikati to form the first government under President General Joseph Aoun constitutes a harsh blow to the aspirations of the Lebanese people for reform, change, the implementation of UN resolutions, and the end of Hezbollah’s armed and occupying role. Mikati is not just a traditional politician; he is a corrupt businessman and a prominent figure within the system of corruption and foreign dependency that has driven Lebanon into its current crises during the Syrian occupation, and later under the ongoing Iranian occupation.
It should not be forgotten by anyone in Lebanon or abroad that Mr. Mikati entered politics under the direct sponsorship of the Assad Syrian regime, which ruled Lebanon with iron and fire. He was a financial partner to key Syrian figures like Rami Makhlouf, amassing his vast wealth through influence peddling and shady deals.
His history is filled with corruption cases, from subsidized housing loans redirected for his personal gain, to exploiting banks and public institutions for profit while Lebanon's economy collapsed and poverty rates soared.
Most dangerously, since entering politics, Mikati has never been independent in his stances or decision-making domains. He has always been a tool fully submissive to the dominance of the Syrian and later Iranian occupiers. His repeated appointments as Prime Minister in Lebanon were imposed through the coercion and intimidation of the Syrian regime and later Hezbollah, with his role consistently reduced to a mere puppet rather than a decision-maker.
During the recent military confrontation between the terrorist Hezbollah and Israel, Mikati chose suspicious silence, failing to uphold his responsibilities as Prime Minister. Instead, he echoed Hezbollah’s narratives justifying war and destruction, in blatant collusion against Lebanon’s national interest. This subservience is nothing new. In 2011, Mikati led the so-called “Black Shirts” government, imposed by Hezbollah through force after toppling Prime Minister Hariri’s government while he was meeting the U.S. President in the White House.
Sadly, reinstating Mikati today as the head of the first government under President Joseph Aoun is perfectly described in the Holy Bible: “No one puts a patch of unshrunk cloth on an old garment, for the patch will pull away from the garment, making the tear worse. Neither do people pour new wine into old wineskins. If they do, the skins will burst, the wine will run out, and the wineskins will be ruined. No, they pour new wine into new wineskins, and both are preserved.” (Matthew 9:16-17)
Lebanon needs courageous, honest, and independent leaders capable of confronting corruption and rescuing the nation from Iranian hegemony and terrorism, not the recycling of figures who lost legitimacy long ago. Additionally, implementing the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel requires a Prime Minister who is fearless, unwilling to appease Hezbollah, and refuses to engage in deceptive compromises that derail Lebanon's liberation and recovery.
In conclusion, Najib Mikati’s political history is entirely incompatible with the aspirations of President Joseph Aoun’s mission. Meanwhile, we believe strongly that even if there is regional, international, or Arab consensus on his reappointment, this consensus must be rejected, even if it requires the Lebanese people to take to the streets and protest against this disastrous political farce. Mikati’s return to power would only solidify Hezbollah’s occupation, obstruct the implementation of the UN resolutions, sabotage all prospects for reform and change, and simply doom the new presidency from its very inception.
It is worth mentioning that the upcoming government is highly critical to President Joseph Aoun’s mission in reclaiming and safeguarding Lebanon's sovereignty and independence. This government will be responsible for decisions regarding the following key appointments and national files:
*Appointing the Army Commander and implementing the ceasefire agreement and the UN resolutions.
*Appointing the Governor of the Central Bank and establishing plans for future financial stability.
*Conducting diplomatic appointments and representing Lebanon abroad.
*Carrying out judicial appointments and making a bold decision regarding the future of the Beirut Port explosion investigation, along with a host of financial crime and corruption cases.
*Implementing military appointments across all security posts.
*Managing first-category appointments in all ministries.
*Organizing regulatory bodies across all sectors.
All the aforementioned critical matters raise genuine and serious concerns, emphasizing that the promises and commitments made in Aoun's presidential oath, along with the fate of his presidential term, are entirely contingent on the next government and its prime minister.
In summary, the return of Najib Mikati as prime minister would deliver a severe blow, creating significant obstruction and encirclement of the presidential term. It would jeopardize its chances of success, hinder Lebanon’s liberation from Hezbollah’s occupation, block the implementation of UN resolutions, provide a lifeline to the corrupt political class, and obstruct the comprehensive reforms urgently needed across all sectors.

Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Elias Bejjani: Text and Video: The Story Is Over, Joseph Aoun Appointed President by Saudi-Iranian-American Agreement... Come On, Let's Celebrate
January 9, 2025
Based on analysis and without official or confirmed information, we expect that today, Thursday, January 9, 2025, at 12 noon Beirut time, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun will be appointed as President of the Republic. The rubber-stamp Parliament, led by the eternal corrupt and Trojan Speaker Nabih Berri, specialized in submissiveness, will endorse the decision without objection. This is because all the Members of Parliament fundamentally lack independent, free, and sovereign will, as they are either followers of their local political party owners or Trojan agents and soldiers serving foreign states, as is the case with the so-called 'Party of God,' blasphemously named Hezbollah.
Furthermore, based on analysis and numerous political commentaries and assessments, we believe that the presidential breakthrough came as a result of a Saudi-Iranian agreement blessed by the United States, accompanied by a binding set of conditions. All we hope is that Saudi commitments to Iran are strictly limited to funding the reconstruction of Shiite areas destroyed during the Hezbollah war with Israel and do not include leaving Hezbollah armed or granting it any political or partisan role.
The positive or negative judgment on the new president and the government that will come with him will be based solely on one issue: closing Lebanon as an operational base for all those involved in the deceitful trade of so-called resistance and liberation, the rhetoric of throwing Jews into the sea, praying in Jerusalem, and the culture of death glorification. Of course, this includes recognizing the State of Israel, as all Arab states have done for years.
Come on, let's celebrate, offer congratulations, and pray for Lebanon's liberation from the Iranian occupation, the criminal terrorist Hezbollah, and the corrupt political and partisan elite.

Text & Video: Dima Sadek's Documentary on Shiite Victimhood is a Blatant and Shameless Falsification
Elias Bejjani/January 07/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/138797/
"Enough with the attacks on what is referred to as 'Political Maronism' as a cover for disasters and a justification for the crimes, heresies, terrorism, and atrocities committed in the eras that followed. These periods were marked by jihadists, Arab nationalists, leftists, and so-called resistance merchants abandoning Lebanon's values of freedom, independence, democracy, and coexistence.
In reality, there was never a historical period of 'Political Maronism' in Lebanon. Rather, it was an era of independence, freedom, progress, peace, openness, democracy, art, culture, and leadership.
The so-called "Political Maronism" was Lebanon's only true era of independence following liberation from the French Mandate.
Every era that followed was marked by submission and subjugation to Palestinian, Syrian, and Iranian occupations driven by sectarian motives that destroyed Lebanon, obliterated its sovereignty, displaced its people, and dismantled its institutions—most glaringly evident in the ongoing crimes of the Iranian Shiite duo. In the context of Lebanon's continued Iranianization and the attempts to beautify this era, Dima Sadek's documentary aired yesterday on MTV under the title "Shiite Victimhood."
This fabricated and falsified documentary has no connection to history, truth, or facts. It is nothing but deception, a deliberate distortion aimed at misleading the Lebanese public and justifying the crimes and Persian agenda of the Iranian Shiite duo with vulgarity and audacity.
For countless reasons, the genuine independence era, misrepresented as "Political Maronism," must never be equated with any political phase that followed.
The Shiite duo has committed heinous crimes against Lebanon, holding their sect hostage, alienating it from its homeland, and plunging it into disasters.
Therefore, the so-called "Shiite duo" has no connection to Lebanon or the Shiite community itself.
Yes, absolutely, the Shiites are a respected and influential Lebanese component whose rights should be equal to those of all Lebanese, and their duties should also be bound by the state, the law, the constitution, and national charters.
No to Dima Sadek's leftist-leaning documentary, driven by dreams of throwing Israel and the Jews into the sea while deceitfully exploiting the Palestinian cause.
In conclusion, the leaders of the Shiite duo must be prosecuted for all the crimes they have committed against Lebanon and the Shiite community, specifically Hezbollah, which must be prohibited from engaging in any political, social, or cultural activities.

Congratulations to the South... Congratulations to Al-Aaishiyah ... Congratulations to Lebanon...
Colonel Charbel Barakat /11 January 2025
(Free translation from Arabic by, Elias Bejjani)
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/138965/
In the joy of the wedding that Lebanon is celebrating, and the hope that blooms like the stories of knights on white horses, the promise of salvation is fulfilled. This affirms that heaven remains open to prayers, and Lebanon, this wounded temple burdened by pain, remains cherished in the heart of God, who adorned it with whiteness as a sign of hope and entrusted it with a leader capable of drawing the path to salvation.
From its tormented south, from the mountain of Basilos present with its silos, and the shrines of prophets planted on its hills from Tahir to Sajdah, Famlikh, Safi, and Misha, Lebanon stands strong, holding onto the holiness of its land and the solidity of its rocks. Adorned with the bells of the Church of Al-Aaishiyah,  which continued to resound despite the treacherous crimes committed by the so-called 'brothers' of the occupiers, the people have remained steadfast. Their attachment to their soil remains a source of pride and dignity.
This same south, which the new invaders sought to stain with their hatred and cover with the blackness of their flags and hearts, has endured. They killed its sons as a price for their arrogance and destroyed homes without reason—driven by their chauvinism and thirst for dominance—to break the spirit of Lebanon's free people and distort the image of this noble land. A land that has always been a refuge for the oppressed, a sanctuary protected by the kindness of its people, who seek no personal gains, but the dignity of cooperation, progress, and the prosperity born of willpower and ambition.
From the town that once gave Cyprus its name when it was a prosperous kingdom, as Tarshish and Kadesh in Spain later, comes a powerful symbol. Today, the president of Cyprus, the first world leader to congratulate Lebanon's new leader, Joseph Aoun, echoes these ancient bonds rooted deep since the second millennium BC, as seen in the Amarna letters, where the king of Lebanon addressed the king of Egypt as 'my brother.'
From the vibrant heart of Lebanon, where Joseph Aoun grew up in the school of masculinity and vigor that produced the protectors of the Cedars, arises the one the Lebanese now hope to be their savior. A leader who embodies strength, humility, and the smile of innocence while carrying the spirit of justice, hard work, and effort—ensuring grace and prosperity endure.
To the town of martyrs, Al-Aaishiyah, which today proudly celebrates its son ascending to the presidency and truly deserves this honor. To the leader from whom we hope for unwavering commitment to the right path, clarity of vision, and resilience against temptations, in order to rectify what was corrupted by invaders and their oppressive weapons, impoverishing the people—they who tasted bitterness must now return it to its source. We extend heartfelt congratulations, praying to the Almighty that divine inspiration and light continue to guide our new president, as we have longed for this leadership during half a century of darkness. May Lebanon once again be shaded with peace, security, and love.
From Ain Ebel, a town that has long known the meaning of loyalty to the homeland and paid the price for its dignity time and again, we raise our prayers that God will continue to inspire you, president Joseph Aoun, as He always has, to walk His righteous path and lead Lebanon to its rightful glory.

Aoun says to visit Saudi Arabia on first official trip
Agence France Presse /11 January 2025
Lebanon's new president Joseph Aoun Saturday promised the de-facto leader of Saudi Arabia that his first post-election trip abroad would be to the powerful Gulf kingdom, the presidency said. Aoun told Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a phone call that "Saudi Arabia would be the first destination in his visits abroad," it said, after the Saudi prince called to congratulate him on taking office on Thursday following a two-year vacancy in the position.

President Aoun Invited to Riyadh by Saudi Crown Prince
This Is Beirut /11 January 2025
The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, called on Saturday President Joseph Aoun to congratulate him on becoming president and invited him to visit Saudi Arabia. Along with Qatar, Egypt, France and the United States, Saudi Arabia played an important role in resolving the presidential deadlock. Lebanon had been without a president since October 31, 2022. Acknowledging the Kingdom’s historic role in supporting and demonstrating solidarity with Lebanon, Aoun said that Saudi Arabia would be his first stop on official journeys overseas. A news release from the Presidency of the Republic stated that this visit will reinforce “Lebanon’s ties with Arab countries, which form the basis of the country's relations with its regional environment.”Furthermore, the president met with the Mufti of the Republic, Abdellatif Derian, who had come to Baabda at the head of a delegation of muftis to congratulate him for his election. Sheikh Derian urged MPs to “fulfill their constitutional duty by designating the most suitable person to form the new government” in a brief remark after the meeting. The parliamentary consultations are scheduled for Monday in Baabda. The Mufti emphasized that while the names suggested to head the government were “good,” the MPs will still have the last say in the matter. He stressed that he expects them to select “a person capable of leading the nation in this new phase.”Aoun stated in the interview that he hoped a government would be established as quickly as possible “to get things back on track and start building bridges of trust with the outside world, which is ready to support us...”“We have a great opportunity—either we seize it or we lose it. To take advantage of it, we must be united, hand in hand,” stressed the new president. As he continued, he further explained, “I only came here to build a country, which is why there is no room for building politics in my vision. All people that share the same identity need to be treated and served with equal rights.’’“We have human capacities, resources and skills, which are a lasting asset, more precious than natural resources,” he said in this context. “We require a genuine desire to serve Lebanon’s interests rather than our own,” he added. Aoun concluded, “No individual is better than another, and no denomination is more important than another. The right to difference is sacred, but the right to conflict is not permitted.”

Aoun hopes new govt. will be formed swiftly to 'put things on right track'
Naharnet /11 January 2025
President Joseph Aoun announced Saturday that he has not come to "work in politics, but rather to build a state."Such a state "can only be built upon fairness and equality among all components, who are united by one identity," Aoun told Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan in a meeting in Baabda.
"There are neither victors nor losers and we have witnessed what has recently happened, when everyone sustained damage," Aoun added, referring to the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah. "This country and its people have had enough and the coming generations and our elderly do not need more suffering," Aoun said. He added: "We are before a major opportunity which we can win or lose, and in order to benefit from it we have to be hand in hand."The president also hoped that the new government "will be formed as soon as possible so that things can be put on the right track and to build bridges of confidence with the world." He adeed that the Lebanese should benefit from foreign assistance instead of using it to intimidate each other. "No sect is superior over another and no person is superior over another. We are all Lebanese, we carry the same identity, we chant the same national anthem and the Lebanese flag is for us all. The right to differ is sacred, but the right to disputes is prohibited," Aoun went on to say.

Guterres to Visit Lebanon Next Saturday
This Is Beirut/January 11/2025
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres will visit Lebanon on Saturday to congratulate the new President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, and discuss the programs of UN agencies in the country. In a telephone call, Guterres welcomed the election of President Aoun and wished him success in his new functions. He also reaffirmed the UN's support for Lebanon across various sectors and its commitment to providing continued assistance through international organizations in the country. President Aoun expressed his gratitude to Guterres, underlining the importance of the UN’s role in the current context. He warmly welcomed the announcement of Guterres’ visit, which will mark an important step in strengthening cooperation between Lebanon and the UN.

Syria’s new ruler pledges long-term strategic ties with Lebanon
Dalal Saoud/Reuters/January 11, 2025
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Jan. 11 (UPI) -- Syria's new leader Ahmad Sharaa called on Lebanon on Saturday to forget about the past "negative" relations resulting from decades of the Assad family's rule, promising to resolve all lingering issues and establish long-term strategic ties.
Sharaa said the visit by Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to Damascus "lays the basis for a new phase" and "there will be long-term strategic ties" between the two neighboring countries which have "huge mutual interests.""Let's give ourselves a chance to build a positive relationship ... based on respect for both countries and their sovereignty," he said during a joint news conference with Mikati. He referred to the "damaged" ties under the rule of late Syrian President Hafez Assad and his son and successor Bashar Assad, who was ousted on Dec. 8 by his Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.
Lebanon has suffered from decades-long Syrian military presence, political domination and manipulation that greatly impacted its governance, political life, economy and stability. The Syrian Army first entered Lebanon in 1976 to stop the then-raging civil war and remained until it was forced to pull out following the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in a powerful explosion that targeted his convoy in Beirut on Feb. 14, 2005. Syria imposed itself as the main power broker after having been granted guardianship over Lebanon when the civil war ended in 1990 in line with the Taef agreement, known as the National Reconciliation Accord. It was accused of being behind Hariri's assassination and the killings -- during the civil war and in peace times -- of top politicians, ministers, parliamentarians, security officials and journalists. It was also the main supporter of its once-powerful Hezbollah ally, providing support and assistance for its anti-Israel resistance.
But its influence on Lebanon began to wane rapidly since 2011, when anti-Assad peaceful protests broke out and soon turned into a bloody civil war. Sharaa promised that new Syria will not support one Lebanese party over the other and will try to solve all problems between the two countries "through consultation and dialogue."Syria under Assad's rule used to interfere in Lebanon's political decisions and foreign policy, forcing the election of presidents, nomination of prime ministers and appointment of ministers and others in key government posts. The Sharaa-Mikati talks focused on controlling the countries' land borders, including illegal border crossings mainly used to smuggle arms and drugs, and delineating both land and sea borders.Assad's fall, which further weakened Hezbollah after it suffered heavy blows during its war with Israel, deprived the militant group of Iran's main arms and financial supply line.
"Among the top priorities is the land and sea border demarcation that would take some time. Today we should completely control the borders, especially the illegal border crossing points to stop any smuggling," Mikati said. He pledged to prevent "any action that could ... threaten the security" of Lebanon and Syria, emphasizing the need to consolidate joint measures on the border and announcing that a joint committee will be formed to carry out the delineation process. Earlier this month, Syria imposed new restrictions on the entry of Lebanese citizens following a clash between Lebanese soldiers and armed Syrians over the closure of a border crossing. Sharaa and Mikati also discussed the issue of hundreds of Lebanese who were arrested by Syria's forces and disappeared in its jails during their nearly 30-year presence in the country. Out of 725 counted by a special Lebanese emergency commission, only nine Lebanese prisoners returned to Lebanon after Bashar Assad's ouster. Mikati said Lebanon will supply the new Syrian administration with a list including the names of all Lebanese who went missing in Syrian jails.Asked about the fate of Austin Tice, an American journalist the U.S. government says was abducted by the Syrian government 12 years ago, he said Syria's new authorities are following up his case "with all concerns to find him alive with God's will."

Syria, Lebanon pledge 'long-term strategic relations' after Assad ouster
NEWS WIRES/(AFP)/France 24/January 11, 2025
Syria's new ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa and Lebanon's prime minister vowed on Saturday to build lasting ties after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Sharaa said the new Syria would "stay at equal distance from all" in Lebanon, and "try to solve problems through negotiations and dialogue". Syria's new ruler and Lebanon's prime minister pledged on Saturday to build lasting ties during the first visit by a Lebanese head of government to Damascus since the start of the civil war in 2011. Prime Minister Najib Mikati's trip came after Islamist-led rebels seized Damascus last month, bringing an end to the rule of Bashar al-Assad.
Previous Lebanese governments refrained from visits to Syria amid tensions at home over the militant group Hezbollah's support for Assad during the conflict. Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said he hoped to turn over a new leaf in relations, days after crisis-hit Lebanon finally elected a president this week following two years of deadlock."There will be long-term strategic relations between us and Lebanon. We and Lebanon have great shared interests," said Sharaa. It was time to "give the Syrian and Lebanese people a chance to build a positive relationship", he said, adding that he hoped Joseph Aoun's presidency would usher in an era of stability in Lebanon. Sharaa said the new Syria would "stay at equal distance from all" in Lebanon, and "try to solve problems through negotiations and dialogue".

Mikati visits Damascus on 1st trip by Lebanese PM since Syria war
Agence France Presse /11 January 2025
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati arrived in Damascus Saturday in the first such visit since before civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, an AFP journalist reported.His visit comes as the neighboring countries seek better relations after Islamist-led rebels toppled longtime strongman Bashar al-Assad last month. He is expected to hold talks with Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. The visit comes days after Lebanese lawmakers elected the country's army chief Joseph Aoun as president, ending a more than two-year vacancy. Deadlock between pro- and anti-Hezbollah blocs in parliament had impeded a dozen previous attempts to fill the vacancy but Hezbollah emerged weakened from two months of full-fledged war with Israel late last year. Syria was the dominant power in Lebanon for three decades under the Assad clan but withdrew its troops in 2005 in the face of international pressure over the assassination of Lebanese ex-prime minister Rafik Hariri.

Mikati Underlines Urgency of Resolving Syrian Presence in Lebanon in Damascus Talks
This Is Beirut/January 11/2025
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati stressed the urgent need to deal rapidly with the issue of displaced Syrians, who are massively present in Lebanon, and called for the demarcation of borders between Lebanon and Syria. Mikati's remarks came after a meeting with Syria's new leader, Ahmad al-Shareh, in Damascus, where he headed an official Lebanese delegation on Saturday morning for discussions on issues of common interest. “It has become urgent, for the interests of both countries, to rapidly resolve this issue and allow the return of displaced persons to Syria,” he said at a joint press briefing with Shareh, adding that the Syrian presence in Lebanon wields “strong pressure on all areas” in the country. During the press conference, the two officials expressed their positions on a number of critical issues, including control of the border between the two countries. In this respect, Mikati stressed that “the demarcation of the land border between Lebanon and Syria is a top priority.” “It is imperative to control the border in order to stop any smuggling operations between the two countries,” he stressed. He also expressed his “wishes for peace and stability in Syria after years of war,” stressing that relations between the two countries should be based on the principles of “good neighborliness and equality between the two peoples.”Mikati also raised with his host the issue of the missing Lebanese who had been imprisoned in the jails of Bashar al-Assad's ousted regime. He assured that the Syrian authorities would be following up on this matter and were waiting for the Lebanese authorities to hand over the list of names so that they could conduct an investigation and carry out DNA tests. Mikati said his talks with Shareh inspired confidence, and that he was reassured about the (good) nature of future bilateral relations.
For his part, Shareh called for “a chance for the Syrian and Lebanese peoples to build a positive relationship based on mutual respect and the sovereignty of both countries.” “Syria will keep an equal distance from all Lebanese parties and seek to resolve all problems through dialogue,” he said.
In response to a question about the election of General Joseph Aoun as president in Lebanon, Shareh expressed his support for the consensus around the former army commander, asserting that there would be “lasting strategic relations between Lebanon and Syria, based on solid and healthy foundations.”
Furthermore, the Syrian leader indicated that “the question of borders was a matter for customs.” “If I had the opportunity, I would open the borders to everyone. I would open them completely with Lebanon,” he added. In his view, relations between the two countries should be based on fraternity. These statements remain ambiguous for the moment, leaving room for multiple interpretations. “Syria's current priority is to preserve the country's security and to monopolize arms through the Syrian state,” he added, revealing that he had discussed with Mikati the issue of Syrian savings blocked in Lebanese banks.
The Mikati-Shareh meeting was the first official exchange between Damascus and Beirut since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8. Mikati's visit is also the first by a Lebanese Prime Minister to Damascus since 2010, a year before the outbreak of war in Syria. Mikati was accompanied by an official delegation comprising the caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdallah Bou Habib, the Acting Director of General Security, Brigadier General Elias Baysari, the Head of Army Intelligence, Brigadier General Tony Kahwaji and the Deputy Director of State Security, Hassan Choucair.

Opposition MPs to Nominate Fouad Makhzoumi to Form Next Government
This Is Beirut/January 11/2025
Opposition MPs announced Saturday evening their decision to nominate MP Fouad Makhzoumi to form the next government at the binding parliamentary consultations with President Joseph Aoun scheduled on Monday. “In line with the new phase in Lebanon, launched by the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, in his swearing-in speech, and in which he outlined the rescue plan for the Lebanese state that requires a new approach in its management, the representatives of the opposition forces met this evening and decided to nominate MP Fouad Makhzoumi and recommend him in the binding parliamentary consultations next Monday,” the parliamentarians said in a short communique.Other parliamentary blocs, including the Democratic Gathering Bloc led by the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), will hold meetings on Sunday to discuss their choice of a candidate to head the next cabinet. A day after the election on Thursday, the General Secretariat of the Presidency announced that President Joseph Aoun will hold parliamentary consultations on Monday to appoint the next Prime Minister tasked with forming a new government.

Italy foreign minister visits Beirut as PM pledges support
Agence France Presse /11 January 2025
Italy's foreign minister arrived in Beirut Friday to meet with Lebanon's newly elected president, as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni offered her strong support. "Italy's strong support for Lebanon's stabilization and pacification process" would be at the heart of discussions between Antonio Tajani and President Joseph Aoun, caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Tajani's office said in a statement. The election Thursday of Aoun ended a more than two-year vacancy for a country deep in economic and political crisis. It "represents a historic moment for Lebanon and an important signal for the entire Middle Eastern region," said Tajani. "We are working to ensure that the ceasefire with Israel represents the first step towards sustainable peace," he added. Earlier Friday, Meloni sent her congratulations to Aoun, who will now be charged with overseeing a ceasefire in south Lebanon and naming a prime minister able to push through desperately needed reforms. "I am convinced that President Aoun will be a trustworthy and authoritative leader for Lebanon, a friendly nation to Italy to which we are linked by historic and deep ties," Meloni said in a statement.

Who is Joseph Aoun, a low-profile army chief who is now Lebanon's president?
Associated Press /11 January 2025
Lebanon's new president and former army commander Joseph Aoun has maintained a low profile. Those who know him say he is no-nonsense, kind and averse to affiliating himself with any party or even expressing a political opinion — a rarity for someone in Lebanon's fractured, transactional political system. Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official who is now senior managing director of the TRENDS US consulting firm, often met Aoun while overseeing Washington's security cooperation in the Middle East. He called Aoun a "very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm" who avoided political discussions "like the plague.""He really was viciously nonpartisan, did not have any interest in even delivering speeches or doing media," Saab said. "He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army." That might make Aoun an odd fit as Lebanon's president after being elected Thursday — ending a more than two-year vacuum in the post — but Saab said it could be a boon for the country where incoming leaders typically demand that certain plum positions go to supporters. "He's not going to ask for equities in politics that typically any other president would do," Saab said. Aoun, 61, is from Aichiye, a Christian village in Jezzine province, southern Lebanon. He joined the army as a cadet in 1983, during Lebanon's 15-year civil war. George Nader, a retired brigadier general who served alongside Aoun, recalled him as keeping cool under fire.
They fought together in the battle of Adma in 1990, a fierce confrontation between the Lebanese army and the Lebanese Forces militia during the war's final stages. Nader described it as one of the toughest battles of his career.
"The level of bloodshed was significant and I remember Joseph was steady and focused," he said. Aoun commanded the Lebanese army's 9th infantry brigade before being appointed army chief in March 2017.
During his tenure as commander, he oversaw the army's response to a series of crises, beginning with a battle to push out Islamist militants from the Islamic State group and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, who were then operating in eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border. The army fought in coordination with Hezbollah. HTS in its current iteration led a lightning offensive that toppled Syrian president Bashar Assad last month and has become the de facto ruling party in Syria. The Lebanese army navigated other challenges, including responding to mass anti-government protests in 2019, the 2020 Beirut port explosion and the 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that came to a halt with a ceasefire agreement in November. The Lebanese military largely stayed on the sidelines in the Israel-Hezbollah war, only returning fire a handful of times when Israeli strikes hit its positions. Dozens of soldiers were killed in airstrikes and shelling.The military also took a major hit when Lebanon's currency collapsed beginning in 2019, reducing the monthly salary of a soldier to the equivalent of less than $100. In a rare political statement, Aoun openly criticized the country's leadership for its lack of action on the issue in a speech in June 2021.
"What are you waiting for? What do you plan to do? We have warned more than once of the dangers of the situation," he said. The United States and Qatar both at one point subsidized soldiers' salaries.
Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that aims to build stronger U.S.-Lebanon ties, said he met Aoun about seven years ago when he was taking over command of the armed forces and "immediately found him to be the best of those that we had worked with."
He described Aoun as a "very direct guy, very honest" and a leader "who inspires loyalty by his hard work." Those attributes helped Aoun to prevent a flood of defections during the economic crisis, when many soldiers had to resort to working second jobs, Gabriel said. On a personal level, Gabriel described Aoun as a humble and deeply religious man. Like all Lebanese presidents and army commanders under Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system, Aoun is a Maronite Christian. Aoun's deep faith "really sets the groundwork for ... his value system and his morals," Gabriel said.
In Aoun's hometown, residents burst into celebrations after his election, setting off fireworks, dancing in the streets and handing out sweets and glasses of whiskey. "We are currently living in very difficult times, and he is the right person for this challenging period," said Claire Aoun, among those celebrating. "May God guide and support him, and may he rebuild this entire nation for us."
But Aoun's election was not without controversy or universally supported, even among fellow Christians.
One of the most influential Christian parties in the country, the Free Patriotic Movement of former President Michel Aoun — no relation to the current president — opposed his candidacy. And the Lebanese Forces party gave him their endorsement only the night before the election.
Some have argued that Joseph Aoun's election violated the law. The Lebanese constitution bars a sitting army commander from being elected president, though the ban has been waived multiple times. Some legislators were not happy doing it again.
Some in Lebanon also perceived Aoun's election as the result of outside pressure — notably from the United States and Saudi Arabia — and less the result of internal consensus. Hezbollah's war with Israel weakened the militant group, politically and militarily, and left Lebanon in need of international assistance for reconstruction, which analysts said paved the way for Aoun's election. Independent lawmaker Halima Qaaqour argued during Thursday's parliament session that "we cannot justify violating the constitution," even if there was precedent. She took a swipe at countries seen as backing Aoun's election, telling Western and Arab diplomats present, "No one should interfere in our internal affairs."Saab, the analyst, said painting Aoun as a puppet of Washington is unfair, although he acknowledged there's no such thing as a Lebanese president or prime minister completely independent of foreign influence. "The entire country is heavily penetrated and vulnerable and at the mercy of international powers," Saab said. "But ... if you were going to compare him to the leadership of Hezbollah being fully subservient to Iranian interests, then no, he's not that guy when it comes to the Americans."

President Joseph Aoun’s Deep Connection to Southern Border Villages
Katia Kahil/This Is Beirut/January 11/2025
Following the ceasefire and the deployment of the Lebanese Army in border villages, President Joseph Aoun was the first to visit Marjayoun, Klayaa and Khiam on December 23, 2024. At the time, he was still serving as Commander-in-Chief of the Army and was accompanied by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. He is especially familiar with the southern regions, having spent years there—moments residents describe as unforgettable, as he left an indelible mark in their hearts. Thus, this December visit kind of symbolized a homecoming. As former commander of the 9th Brigade stationed in Marjayoun, the newly elected president—who hails from the Jezzine district in South Lebanon—spent over six years in this border region. There, he not only fulfilled his military duties but also forged deep personal bonds with the local communities. “Joseph Aoun is not merely a man of power; he is a man of the people,” said Abir, a resident of Klayaa. “He has always been there for us, whether in times of hardship or moments of celebration.” For Abir and many Lebanese citizens, weary of years of crises, Joseph Aoun’s rise to the presidency brings a renewed sense of hope. As news of his election broke on Thursday, the streets of Marjayoun and nearby villages like Klayaa and Rmeish buzzed with activity. Banners honoring the new president were hoisted, and shops were draped in Lebanese colors. Flags fluttered everywhere. “We celebrated his election as if it were a national holiday. Joseph Aoun is one of us. He knows our struggles, our needs and our hopes,” said a joyful Malek. “His duty on the field helped him truly understand the challenges and aspirations of local communities,” added Ramzi, a supermarket owner in Marjayoun. “We remember him as an accessible and open person who always listened to our concerns,” he said with pride.
Deep Connections
The challenges ahead for this battle-hardened leader, twice wounded in combat, are immense, but residents express confidence in “their president.” “Joseph Aoun understands the magnitude of the task ahead. For us in Marjayoun—this neglected and forgotten region—he has grand ambitions and a vision for meaningful reforms,” said Takla, a local high school teacher. Picturesque villages like Marjayoun, Klayaa and Ebel Saqi, known for their scenic beauty and cultural richness, are places where Aoun immersed himself during his time in the region. A man of simple habits, he embraced local traditions, participated in celebrations and listened to people’s concerns, strengthening his bond with them. This personal connection made him even more open and relevant to citizens. “Joseph Aoun is not just our president; he’s like family,” said Ibrahim Toubia, a restaurant owner in Klayaa. “He’s always been present during life’s milestones—baptisms, weddings and more. His election is a source of immense joy for us. He supported us in our hardest times, and his presence brings a sense of security.”The Toubia family hosted a celebratory dinner to honor Joseph Aoun’s election, an opportunity to express “our support and affection for our new president.”Held in the square of St. George’s Church in Klayaa, the event brought together the entire community, with residents preparing traditional dishes for the occasion. President Aoun has always maintained close relationships with the people whose lives he once shared. As the godfather to the Daher family’s children, his role has left a lasting impression. “My children look up to him as a role model and a source of inspiration. His success and heartfelt commitment to local communities drive them to pursue their dreams and engage in local initiatives,” said Rabih, the father. Sarah, his 12-year-old daughter, expressed her admiration for her godfather. “To me, Joseph Aoun is a hero. He inspires me to be a better person and helps me in so many ways. One day, I hope to make a difference, just like him.”
A Leader Close to the People
Joseph Aoun’s election sparked jubilant celebrations in Hasbaya and Rmeish, where fireworks lit up the sky, traditional dances were performed and gatherings were held in his honor. Residents began to envision the Lebanon of tomorrow under his leadership, particularly a transformed southern border region that has long suffered as a battleground for external interests. “We’ve always believed in him. His victory is that of the entire South. With him, we feel our voices will finally be heard. We need leaders who understand our struggles,” said Samer, his eyes shining with hope. “Joseph Aoun is a symbol of unity. His election offers a new chance for all Lebanese, especially for us in the South. We are exhausted by wars, conflicts imposed on us and economic crises,” says Khaled, another resident of the region. President Aoun has already made a significant impact on the development of the Marjayoun and Hasbaya region. A notable project is the highway named in his honor during his time as Commander-in-Chief of the Army, connecting several villages of Hasbaya. The road stands as a testimony to his commitment to the region and his efforts to improve residents’ daily lives. “This road is crucial—it links communities and eases travel for everyone. Naming it after him was our way of thanking him for his dedication and his work to improve our living conditions,” explained Abou Nazih.Another notable connection is the Our Lady of Hermon shrine (Saydet Haramoun) in Kawkaba, Marjayoun. President Aoun’s presence at its inauguration reflected his deep ties to the region.
High Hopes
For the people of South Lebanon, Joseph Aoun’s election represents a long-awaited opportunity for real change, one they had almost stopped believing in. “We have full confidence in him as we face tremendous challenges. We eagerly anticipate concrete steps from our new president, hoping he will create a better future for all Lebanese,” said Abdallah, a farmer. Having endured years of conflict and uncertainty, many in the South dream of lasting peace, allowing them to rebuild their lives and contribute to the region’s development. “As a young person, I dream of growing my business and building my home here in Marjayoun, my village. I want to live in a stable environment where I can achieve my ambitions,” said Rayanne. This sentiment is shared by countless residents in the border villages devastated by the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah. Many, despite the hardships, never considered leaving.

Lebanese Army Deploys in Several Border Villages
This Is Beirut/January 11/2025
The Lebanese Army began deploying in several South Lebanon villages on Saturday, as an Israeli drone struck a car in the village of Kounine, in yet another violation of the ceasefire agreement, injuring two people. Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said on X that the attack targeted suspected Hezbollah members who were spotted leaving “a military building” that was used by the pro-Iranian group. For its part, the Lebanese Army command announced on X that “Army units continue their deployment in the area of Ras al-Naqoura-Tyre and in several towns in the western sector, including Alma al-Shaab, Dhayra, Aitaroun, Bint Jbeil, Tayr Harfa, Majdel Zoun, al-Salhani and al-Qaouzah after the withdrawal of the Israeli enemy.”The post further stated that “the army is working on reinforcing its positions and securing key spots, in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon-UNIFIL and the five-member committee supervising the ceasefire agreement with Israel. “Specialized units continue to conduct engineering surveys with the aim of removing unexploded ordnance, opening roads and removing rubble. Therefore, the army command calls on citizens not to approach the area and to adhere to the instructions of the military units until the deployment is completed.” An armored personnel carrier of the Lebanese army flipped over in the town of Hadatha in Bint Jbeil district Saturday evening. A soldier was killed and another injured in the accident. Also Saturday, search and rescue teams of the Civil Defense recovered the corpses and remains of 13 people from under the rubble in the villages of Naqoura, Bayyada, Teir Harfa and Khiyam. Meanwhile, Israel continued to violate the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. On Saturday morning, its army dynamited several houses in Aita al-Shaab and Bint Jbeil, where violent explosions were heard. In addition, an Israeli drone dropped a sound bomb on residents carrying furniture from their homes in Aitaroun, while an Israeli bulldozer demolished structures close to a Lebanese Army position in Hamra. In this context, the army's acting Commander-in-Chief, General Hassan Audi, held talks in Yarze with the chairman of the Ceasefire Monitoring Committee, US General Jasper Jeffers. Discussions focused on developments in the south and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.

ExplainerExchange Rate Stability: Lebanese Pound Withstands the Surge
Christiane Tager/This Is Beirut /11 January 2025
The surge in demand for Lebanese pounds persists, especially following the election of General Joseph Aoun as President of the Republic. Despite speculators’ attempts to mislead the public about an improvement in the pound’s value and a decline in the dollar’s, the exchange rate remains stable.
For some time now, rumors have suggested a drop in the exchange rate from 89,500 pounds per dollar to 50,000. However, Nassib Ghobril, Chief Economist at Byblos Bank, dismisses such claims as “not serious.” “The Lebanese pound has experienced a frenzied demand since the ceasefire and Thursday’s presidential election. Speculators started selling dollars to buy pounds, believing the exchange rate would change, aiming to make a profit or at least avoid losing value,” he explained to This Is Beirut. The Banque du Liban (BDL) continues to adhere to its monetary policy, tightly controlling the exchange rate and curbing speculative activities. According to Ghobril, Central Bank will not adjust the exchange rate without a comprehensive reform plan. He emphasized that “these rumors are baseless and illogical,” adding that “the financial institution has maintained exchange rate stability since July 2023.” He pointed out that all commercial transactions, corporate and banking balance sheets, and Treasury revenues are calculated at this rate, warning that any change would have a negative impact. He also noted that this stability has allowed the Treasury to boost its revenues. Ghobril called it unrealistic to believe that “the exchange rate will drop to 50,000 Lebanese pounds just because the Lebanese Parliament successfully elected a President of the Republic.”He also referred to the BDL’s planned launch of a platform in collaboration with Bloomberg in December 2023, designed to allow supply and demand to dictate the exchange rate. However, this project was postponed due to the war that broke out on October 8, 2023, as such a platform requires a climate of trust and stability. The economist affirmed that the BDL would likely maintain the exchange rate at 89,500 pounds per dollar until a new government is formed and a comprehensive reform plan is set up. He also clarified that no decision has been made to lower the exchange rate, even after the presidential election. Furthermore, Ghobril highlighted that this surge in demand for Lebanese pounds benefits the BDL, enabling it to purchase dollars from the market and increase its foreign currency reserves.
In this context, and according to some reports, it seems the BDL’s reserves have increased by $120 million over the past two days.

Eight Tons of Smuggled Potato Seized in Akkar
This is Beirut/This Is Beirut /11 January 2025
A State Security patrol from Halba’s bureau, North Lebanon, seized eight tons of potatoes smuggled into the country from Syria. The potatoes were sold in the vegetable market of Kobbet Bshamra, Akkar. In a statement, State Security emphasized that the seizure was a component of the security services’ anti-smuggling campaign and stated that the amounts seized were sent, under the direction of the judicial authorities, to local charitable organizations to be re-distributed to families in need. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and new Syrian leader Ahmad al-Shareh are scheduled to meet in Damascus on Saturday to discuss issues of common interest. Among them, the smuggling along the Lebanese-Syrian border.

Lebanon stands to benefit as Hezbollah, Syria and Iran weaken
Mohamed Chebaro/Arab News/January 11, 2025
It is no secret that Lebanon’s fate and stability have always been at the mercy of the delicate equilibrium of communal internal forces, the regional Arab balance of power, Israel, and the Palestinian conflict — as well as Iran and its revolutionary agenda in recent decades.
Rarely have those forces aligned in a way that set the Lebanese state on track for peace, stability, rebuilding and reforming in the interest of all those influential forces at the same time.
Middle East theory books have often argued that the game of musical chairs applies most to this region, where there is always one extra player left without a chair, often scuppering the party for the rest. This analogy applies most to Lebanon and its many competing, even warring, communities, as events have often left one of them without a chair at the table.
This week’s election of Joseph Aoun, the fifth army commander to become president in Lebanon’s history, begs the question of whether he will be able to usher in an era that could pull the country from the brink, or if he will merely serve as a caretaker president, managing the demands of its corrupt political elites, their expectations, and those of their communities. Will he be able to be a Fouad Chehab, the late president of Lebanon from 1958 to 1964, who rose to power after modern Lebanon’s first mini civil war, fought over the issue of aligning Lebanon with Nasserite Arabism’s anti-Zionist, pro-Palestinian rhetoric, or with the Western-led Baghdad Pact championed by the US in the interests of peace and prosperity? This surely remains to be seen.The weakening of Hezbollah and its master, Iran, in last year’s war with Israel, coupled with the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, have no doubt been key factors in breaking Lebanon’s long-deadlocked parliament to reach a consensus and elect a new president who has the confidence of the international community.
The new president’s inbox and the to-do list of his soon-to-be-appointed government are colossal, aiming to meet the lowest threshold of Lebanese expectations after years in which state institutions have been in the wilderness of the imposed trilogy of “people, army and the resistance.”
Making a break with such a formula that legitimized the use of force by an extrastate actor is key to understanding how and where Lebanon’s reboot under Aoun could go.
Hezbollah’s acceptance of Aoun’s election underlines that it no longer dictates the political agenda in light of the regional geopolitical shifts since Hamas’s misjudged adventure on Oct. 7, 2023 and its aftermath, which led to the weakening of Iran’s influence in the region.
The political defeat of Hezbollah follows its devastating military setback over the past 14 months. And under the ceasefire terms with Israel, the Lebanese army continues to deploy in the south as Israeli troops are set to withdraw. The test is whether Hezbollah will agree to dismantle its remaining military infrastructure south of the Litani River and pull its remaining forces 30 km from the border.
It will be up to Aoun, with his military background, to persuade Hezbollah to abandon its weapons — a daunting task, to say the least. But that is the test the new president cannot fail. Between now and the nomination and swearing-in of a new government, political fighting is likely to continue between two trends — those who want to reconstitute the Lebanese political landscape afresh, and those who want to refloat and reposition the hegemon of a corrupt, discredited political elite that, under Syrian tutelage and direct Iranian guidance, devastated the Lebanese state and its institutions over four decades. The latter successfully emptied Lebanon’s coffers, collapsed its banking system, took its people to war in Syria, fought Israel repeatedly on behalf of Iran, impoverished its people and pushed many into exile. Additionally, they opened the country to mafia-like money-laundering cartels, drug producers and smugglers, positioning Lebanon as a pariah state.
As a result, Western and Arab countries refrained from providing a lifeline to the country, apart from the minimum necessary to keep its quasi-security apparatus and basic infrastructure afloat, serving the people against all odds.
The new president committed in his speech on Friday to a “policy of neutrality” and to improving Lebanon’s relations with Arab countries that have ostracized it for years due to Hezbollah’s axis of resistance agenda.
The test, no doubt, will be his ability to deliver on his pledge that the state will have a monopoly on bearing arms, signaling a difficult path ahead to disarm Hezbollah, which has kept its weapons since the civil war ended in 1990 to fight Israel, even after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.
Early indicators as to the new Lebanese president and the prospects for Lebanon will surely be seen in the composition of the new government — whether it will be a uniform executive body or if pressures will be exerted to compose it in a way that reflects the communal, sectarian and political quotas and divides imposed by the traditional political elite dominated by the pro-Hezbollah forces.
The early key appointments to be initiated by the new government ahead of the forthcoming general parliamentary elections in the spring are likely to reflect whether Lebanon will be on a healing path, or if the old symptoms persist. Appointments of the heads of the security and administrative apparatus will be key indicators and a telling sign of the parliamentary elections. Hezbollah, it is said, allowed the election of the new president Aoun to go ahead only after receiving assurances about the name of the next head of the armed forces and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement’s tenets or limits with Israel, which could raise alarm bells.The role played by the US, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which lobbied for the election of Aoun, should be applauded. However, those nations ought to prepare for the long road ahead, paved with thorns, if Lebanon is to be stable and prosperous. Threats from Iran, which is unlikely to abandon its anti-Israel and pro-resistance rhetoric and actions, could scupper all efforts for a neutral but prosperous Lebanon. It will be up to Aoun, with his military background, to persuade Hezbollah to abandon its weapons — a daunting task, to say the least. But that is the test the new president cannot fail. Otherwise, Lebanon’s historic opportunity to reinstate peace, security and stability, and rebuild its economy and banking system to attract tourism and investment, especially in its newly found energy reserves in the sea, could be lost once again.
• Mohamed Chebaro is a British- Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 11-12/2025
Syria says it foiled Islamic State attack on Sayyida Zeinab shrine
Associated Press/11 January 2025
Intelligence officials in Syria's new de facto government thwarted a plan by the Islamic State group to set off a bomb at a Shiite shrine in the Damascus suburb of Sayyida Zeinab, state media reported Saturday. State news agency SANA reported, citing an unnamed official in the General Intelligence Service, that members of the IS cell planning the attack were arrested. It quoted the official as saying that the intelligence service is "putting all its capabilities to stand in the face of all attempts to target the Syrian people in all their spectrums."Sayyida Zeinab has been the site of past attacks on Shiite pilgrims by IS — which takes an extreme interpretation of Sunni Islam and considers Shiites to be infidels. In 2023, a motorcycle planted with explosives detonated in Sayyida Zeinab, killing at least six people and wounding dozens a day before the Shiite holy day of Ashoura. The announcement that the attack had been thwarted appeared to be another attempt by the country's new leaders to reassure religious minorities, including those seen as having been supporters of the former government of Bashar Assad. Assad, a member of the Alawite minority, was allied with Iran and with the Shiite Lebanese militant group Hezbollah as well as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the former insurgent group that led the lightning offensive that toppled Assad last month and is now the de facto ruling party in the country, is a Sunni Islamist group that formerly had ties with al-Qaida. The group later split from al-Qaida, and HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has preached religious coexistence since assuming power in Damascus.

Syrian Authorities Foil ISIS Attack on a Shiite Mausoleum
This is Beirut/AFP/January 11/2025
Syrian authorities foiled an attempt by Islamic State group jihadists to blow up a revered Shiite shrine in a Damascus suburb, a source within Syria's intelligence agency told state news agency SANA Saturday. Intelligence and security forces "succeeded in thwarting an attempt by IS to carry out a bombing inside the Sayyida Zaynab shrine", the source said. The interior ministry posted pictures of four men it identified as members of an IS cell, arrested in the countryside outside the capital.It published images of equipment allegedly seized from the suspects, including smartphones, two rifles, three explosive devices and several hand grenades. The photos showed the identity papers of two Lebanese and a Palestinian refugee living in Lebanon.Iran-backed guards used to be deployed at the gates of the Sayyeda Zeinab mausoleum, Syria's most visited Shiite pilgrimage site.But they fled shortly before Sunni Islamist-led rebels last month swept into the Syrian capital, toppling president Bashar al-Assad. Iran-backed fighters had been key supporters of Assad since the civil war broke out in 2011. Shiite shrines are a frequent target of attacks by Sunni extremists of the IS group, both in Syria and neighbouring Iraq.IS previously targeted the Damascus shrine, claiming a July 2023 bombing that killed at least six people near the mausoleum.

UAE, Syria foreign ministers arrive in Riyadh
Arab News/January 11, 2025
RIYADH: Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the UAE deputy prime minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, arrived in Riyadh on Saturday, the Saudi Press Agency reported. He was welcomed at King Khalid International Airport by Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed Al-Khuraiji.
Sheikh Abdullah is in the Kingdom to attend an expanded ministerial meeting on Syria to be hosted by Saudi Arabia on Sunday, SPA added. New Syrian foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani also arrived in Riyadh on Saturday evening to participate in the ministerial meeting. He was also welcomed at King Khalid International Airport by Al-Khuraiji.

Turkiye’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician as the two sides inch toward peace
AP/January 12, 2025
ISTANBUL: A delegation from one of Turkiye’s biggest pro-Kurdish political parties met a leading figure of the Kurdish movement in prison Saturday, the latest step in a tentative process to end the country’s 40-year conflict, the party said.Three senior figures from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM, met the party’s former co-chairperson, Selahattin Demirtas, at Edirne prison near the Greek border. The meeting with Demirtas — jailed in 2016 on terrorism charges that most observers, including the European Court of Human Rights, have labelled politically motivated — took place two weeks after DEM members met Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. While the PKK has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since the 1980s, the DEM is the latest party representing left-leaning Kurdish nationalism. Both DEM and its predecessors have faced state measures largely condemned as repression, including the jailing of elected officials and the banned of parties. In a statement released on social media after the meeting, Demirtas called on all sides to “focus on a common future where everyone, all of us, will win.”
Demirtas credited Ocalan with raising the chance that the PKK could lay down its arms. Ocalan has been jailed on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara since 1999 for treason over his leadership of the PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye and most Western states.
Demirtas led the DEM between 2014 and 2018, when it was known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP, and he is still widely admired. He said that despite “good intentions,” it was necessary for “concrete steps that inspire confidence … to be taken quickly.”
One of the DEM delegation, Ahmet Turk, said: “I believe that Turks need Kurds and Kurds need Turks. Our wish is for Turkiye to come to a point where it can build democracy in the Middle East.”The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace. Despite being imprisoned for a quarter of a century, Ocalan remains central to any chance of success due to his ongoing popularity among many of Turkiye’s Kurds. In a statement released on Dec. 29, he signaled his willingness to “contribute positively” to renewed efforts. Meanwhile, in an address Saturday to ruling party supporters in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the Kurdish-majority southeast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the disbandment of the PKK and the surrender of its weapons. This would allow DEM “the opportunity to develop itself, strengthening our internal front against the increasing conflicts in our region, in short, closing the half-century-old separatist terror bracket and consigning it to history ... forever,” he said in televised comments. The latest drive for peace came when Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and a close ally of Erdogan, surprised everyone in October when he suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded the PKK. Erdogan offered tacit support for Bahceli’s suggestion a week later, and Ocalan said he was ready to work for peace, in a message conveyed by his nephew.

Four Daesh members, including two leaders, killed in eastern Iraq
Reuters/January 12, 2025
BAGHDAD: Four members of the Daesh, including two senior leaders, were killed in an airstrike carried out by Iraqi aircraft in the Hamrin Mountains in eastern Iraq, security officials said on Saturday. The Iraqi Security Media Cell, an official body responsible for disseminating security information, said in a statement four bodies of Daesh militants were found in the area where Iraqi F-16 fighter jets carried out the strike on Friday. Talib Al-Mousawi, an official at Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a grouping of armed factions originally set up to fight Daesh in 2014 that was subsequently recognized as an official security force, told Reuters the dead included two top Daesh leaders in the Diyala province in eastern Iraq. The identity of another militant will be determined following an examination, the Security Media Cell said. At the height of its power from 2014-2017, the Daesh “caliphate” imposed death and torture on communities in vast swathes of Iraq and Syria and had influence across the Middle East. The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition. Daesh responded by scattering in autonomous cells; its leadership is clandestine and its overall size is hard to quantify. The UN estimates it at 10,000 in its heartlands.

Israel’s Netanyahu sends Mossad director to Gaza ceasefire talks in Qatar
AP/January 11, 2025
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved sending the director of the Mossad foreign intelligence agency to ceasefire negotiations in Qatar in a sign of progress in talks on the war in Gaza. Netanyahu’s office announced the decision Saturday. It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Qatar’s capital, Doha, site of the latest round of indirect talks between Israel and the Hamas militant group. His presence means high-level Israeli officials who would need to sign off on any agreement are now involved. Just one brief ceasefire has been achieved in 15 months of war, and that occurred in the earliest weeks of fighting. The talks mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar have repeatedly stalled since then. Netanyahu has insisted on destroying Hamas’ ability to fight in Gaza. Hamas has insisted on a full Israeli troop withdrawal from the largely devastated territory. On Thursday, Gaza’s Health Ministry said over 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war.

Deadly Strikes in Gaza as a New Negotiation Round Starts in Qatar
This is Beirut/AFP/January 11/2025
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a delegation of senior officials to Qatar for negotiations on a hostage release and Gaza ceasefire deal, which remains plagued by deadly clashes. Netanyahu held a meeting in Jerusalem with US president-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, a representative of current US President Joe Biden and senior Israeli officials, the prime minister's office said in a statement. Following the meeting, Netanyahu instructed the heads of the Mossad spy agency and Shin Bet security agency as well as General Nitzan Alon and foreign policy adviser Ophir Falk "to depart for Doha in order to continue advancing a deal to release our hostages", the statement said.The United States has for more than a year been mediating talks alongside Qatar and Egypt for an end to the war in Gaza alongside the release of hostages. The announcement was welcomed by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, a campaign group for those held in Gaza, which called it "a historic opportunity to secure the release of all our loved ones"."Leave no stone unturned and return with an agreement that ensures the return of all hostages, down to the last one," it said in a statement. Indirect negotiations between Israel and the Islamist militant group Hamas resumed last weekend in Qatar.The discussions are currently focused on the immediate freeing of hostages taken by the Islamist group during its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. Biden, who will leave office on January 20, said on Thursday there had been "real progress" in the talks. Trump, who will replace Biden, promised "hell to pay" if the hostages were not released by his inauguration.
Deadly strikes in Jabalia
On the ground, Gaza's civil defence agency said an Israeli air strike on a school-turned-shelter on Saturday killed eight people, including two children, while the Israeli military said it targeted Hamas militants. Agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal confirmed eight people, including two children and two women, were killed by Israeli shelling on the Halwa school in the northern Gaza city of Jabalia. Bassal said the strike would 30 people, including 19 children, and that the Halwa school housed "thousands of displaced people".
The attack was the latest in a series of Israeli strikes on school buildings housing displaced people in Gaza, where fighting has raged for more than 14 months. A strike on the United Nations-run Al-Jawni school in central Gaza on September 11 drew international outcry after the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said six of its staff were among the 18 reported dead. The Israeli military accuses Hamas of hiding in school buildings where thousands of Gazans have sought shelter -- a charge denied by the Palestinian militant group.
Israeli casualties
The Israeli military, in a statement, acknowledged it conducted a strike on the facility. It said the air force "conducted a precise strike on terrorists in a command-and-control centre" that had previously served as the Halwa school in Jabaliya, adding that it had killed three militants in a ground operation near Jabalia in northern Gaza. It said it targeted the premises because "the school had been used by Hamas terrorists to plan and execute attacks". The Israeli military also said on Saturday that four soldiers had died in combat in the north of the Gaza Strip. The deaths brought to 403 the total number of soldiers killed in the Palestinian territory since October 7, 2023. An officer and a reservist soldier were "seriously wounded" during the same incident and were taken to hospital, the military said in a statement. Israel has been waging an intense offensive in northern Gaza since early October, saying it aims to prevent Hamas from regrouping. At least 46,537 Palestinians, a majority of them civilians, have been killed in Israel's military campaign in Gaza since the war began, according to data provided by the health ministry. The United Nations has acknowledged these figures as reliable. The October 7 attack that triggered it resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people on the Israeli side, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures, which includes hostages killed in captivity.

The Fires Continue to Spread in Los Angeles
This is Beirut/AFP/January 11/2025
The largest of the Los Angeles' fires spread toward previously untouched neighborhoods Saturday, forcing new evacuations and dimming hopes that the disaster was coming under control. Across the city, at least 11 people have died as multiple fires have ripped through residential areas since Tuesday, razing thousands of homes in destruction that US President Joe Biden likened to a "war scene."Despite huge firefighting efforts, the Palisades fire's expansion prompted evacuation orders in ritzy neighborhoods along its eastern flank, which include the famous Getty Center art museum. Winds were forecast to pick up again on Saturday after a brief lull, posing the risk of new fires as embers are blown into dry brush. Los Angeles residents have increasingly demanded to know who is at fault for the disaster as they grapple with the ruin and local anger rises over officials' preparedness and response.
As reports of looting grew, a sunset-to-sunrise curfew was imposed in evacuated areas. Around two dozen arrests have already been made across Los Angeles, where some residents have organized street patrols and kept armed watch over their own houses. The National Guard has been deployed to bolster law enforcement.
12,000 buildings gone
Five separate fires have so far burned more than 37,000 acres (15,000 hectares), destroying around 12,000 buildings, California's fire agency reported.The Los Angeles County medical examiner's office confirmed an additional fatality on Friday, bringing the overall death toll so far to 11, though the figure is expected to rise. "It reminded me of more of a war scene, where you had certain targets that were bombarded," said Biden, as he received a briefing at the White House. Winds had calmed Friday, providing a fleeting window of opportunity for firefighters battling blazes around the clock for a fourth consecutive day. "Braveheart" actor Mel Gibson was the latest celebrity to reveal his Malibu home had burned down, telling NewsNation the loss was "devastating." Paris Hilton, Anthony Hopkins and Billy Crystal were among a long list of celebrities who lost houses, while Prince Harry and his wife Meghan -- who quit royal life in 2020 and moved to California -- were seen comforting survivors. The Palisades fire was only eight percent contained on Saturday morning and spreading east after burning 21,600 acres. Emergency chiefs warned the situation was still extremely dangerous. The winds "are going to increase again in the coming days," said Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Authorities have said it was too early to know the cause of the blazes. Blame game Biden on Friday took a veiled swipe at incoming president Donald Trump, who has spread misinformation over the fires that has then been amplified on social media. "You're going to have a lot of demagogues out there trying to take advantage," the president said. Newsom, who has been blamed for the disaster by the president-elect, invited Trump to visit Los Angeles and survey the devastation with him. "We must not politicize human tragedy or spread disinformation from the sidelines," said Newsom. Los Angeles fire chief Kristin Crowley pointed to recent funding cuts of the service, saying her department was chronically under-resourced and short of staff. Wildfires occur naturally, but scientists say human-caused climate change is altering weather and changing the dynamics of the blazes.Emergency managers apologized Friday after false evacuation alerts were erroneously sent to millions of mobile phones, sparking panic.

US wildfires pose fresh threat despite winds easing
Reuters/January 11, 2025
LOS ANGELES: The largest of the raging wildfires that have devastated parts of Los Angeles this week was reported to have shifted direction on Saturday, triggering more evacuation orders and posing a new challenge to exhausted firefighters. Six simultaneous blazes that have ripped across Los Angeles County neighborhoods since Tuesday have killed at least 11 people and damaged or destroyed 10,000 structures. The toll is expected to mount when firefighters are able to conduct house-to-house searches.
The fierce Santa Ana winds that fanned the infernos eased on Friday night. But the Palisades Fire on the city’s western edge was heading in a new direction, prompting another evacuation order as it edged toward the Brentwood neighborhood and the San Fernando Valley foothills, the Los Angeles Times reported.
HIGHLIGHTS
• Death toll rises to 11 with more fatalities expected.
• 10,000 structures burned as neighborhoods turn to ash.
• Thousands homeless, public health emergency declared.
• Insurers face billions in claims, Biden vows support.
“The Palisades fire has got a new significant flare-up on the eastern portion and continues to northeast,” LA Fire Department Captain Erik Scott told local station KTLA, according to a report on the LA Times website.
The fire, the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles, has razed whole neighborhoods to the ground, leaving just the smoldering ruins of what had been people’s homes and possessions.
Some 153,000 people remained under evacuation orders and another 166,800 faced evacuation warnings with a curfew in place for all evacuation zones, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said.
Seven neighboring states, the federal government and Canada have rushed aid to California, bolstering aerial teams dropping water and fire retardant on the flaming hills and crews on the ground attacking fire lines with hand tools and hoses. The National Weather Service said that conditions in the Los Angeles area would improve through the weekend, with sustained winds slowing to about 20 mph, gusting between 35 mph and 50 mph.
Officials have declared a public health emergency due to the thick, toxic smoke. Pacific Palisades residents who ventured back to their devastated neighborhoods on Friday were shocked to find brick chimneys looming over charred waste and burnt-out vehicles as acrid smoke lingered in the air.
“This was a house that was loved,” Kelly Foster, 44, said while combing through the rubble where her house once stood.
Foster’s 16-year-old daughter, Ada, said she tried to get inside but “I just became sick. I just couldn’t even ... Yeah, it’s hard.”
In Rick McGeagh’s Palisades neighborhood, only six of 60 homes survived, and all that remained standing at his ranch house was a statue of the Virgin Mary. “Everything else is ash and rubble,” said McGeagh, 61, a commercial real estate broker who, along with his wife, raised three children at their home.
On Friday morning, hundreds of people streamed into a parking lot near the Rose Bowl stadium in Pasadena for donated clothing, diapers and bottled water.Denise Doss, 63, said she was anxious to return to her destroyed home in Altadena to see if anything was salvageable, but officials stopped her due to safety concerns. “At least to say goodbye until we can rebuild. I will let God lead me,” Doss said.Many Altadena residents said they were worried government resources would go to wealthier areas and that insurers might short-change those who cannot afford to contest denials of fire claims.
Beyond those who lost their homes, tens of thousands remained without power, and millions of people were exposed to poorer air quality, as the fires lofted traces of metals, plastics and other synthetic materials.
Private forecaster AccuWeather estimated the damage and economic loss at $135 billion to $150 billion, portending an arduous recovery and soaring homeowners’ insurance costs. President Joe Biden has declared the fires a major disaster and said the US government would reimburse 100 percent of the recovery for the next six months.

Los Angeles investigates fire blame as curfew enforced
Agence France Presse /11 January 2025
Californians are demanding to know who is at fault for the vast devastation caused by the raging Los Angeles wildfires, as a strict curfew went into force to prevent looting and lawlessness. At least 11 people died as flames ripped through neighborhoods and razed thousands of homes in a disaster that U.S. President Joe Biden likened to a "war scene." While Angelenos grapple with the heart-rending ruin, anger has risen over officials' preparedness and response, particularly for a series of false evacuation alarms and after hydrants ran dry as firefighters battled the initial blazes. Governor Gavin Newsom on Friday ordered a "full independent review" of the city's utilities, describing the lack of water supplies during the initial fires as "deeply troubling.""We need answers to how that happened," he wrote in an open letter. Residents like Nicole Perri, whose home in the upscale Pacific Palisades burnt down, told AFP that officials "completely let us down." "They let us, the ordinary people, burn," added Nicholas Norman, across the city in Altadena. A flare-up late Friday prompted new mandatory evacuations from ritzy neighborhoods along the fire's eastern flank, which include the famous Getty Center.
Built at a cost of $1 billion and constructed partly of fire-resistant travertine stone, the acclaimed museum boasts 125,000 artworks. Meanwhile, as fears of looting grow, a sunset-to-sunrise curfew took effect in evacuated areas. Around two dozen arrests have already been made across Los Angeles, where some residents have organized street patrols and kept armed watch over their own houses. "If we see you in these areas, you will be subject to arrest," Los Angeles Police Department chief Jim McDonnell said. Violators face up to six months in prison or $1,000 fines, he said. The National Guard has been deployed to bolster law enforcement.
'Devastating'
Five separate fires have so far burned more than 37,000 acres (15,000 hectares), destroying around 10,000 buildings, California's fire agency reported. The Los Angeles County medical examiner's office confirmed an additional fatality on Friday, bringing the overall death toll so far to 11.
"It reminded me of more of a war scene, where you had certain targets that were bombarded," said Biden, as he received a briefing on the fires at the White House. Winds calmed Friday, providing a much-needed if fleeting window of opportunity for firefighters battling blazes around the clock for a fourth consecutive day. At the biggest of the blazes, in Pacific Palisades and Malibu, firefighters said they were starting to get the fire under control, with eight percent of its perimeter contained. "Braveheart" actor Mel Gibson was the latest celebrity to reveal his Malibu home had burned down, telling NewsNation the loss was "devastating."Meanwhile the Eaton Fire in the Altadena area was three percent contained, with fire chief Jason Schillinger reporting "significant progress" in quelling the blaze. A third fire that exploded Thursday afternoon near the wealthy Hidden Hills enclave, home to celebrities like Kim Kardashian, was 50 percent surrounded. But emergency chiefs warned the situation is "still very dangerous" and reprieve from the intense gusts that spread embers will not last. "The winds have died down today, but... are going to increase again in the coming days," said Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
'Demagogues'
Authorities have said it was too early to know the cause of the blazes. Biden took a veiled swipe at incoming president Donald Trump, who has spread misinformation over the flames that has then been amplified on social media. "You're going to have a lot of demagogues out there trying to take advantage of it," Biden said of the fires. Governor Newsom, who has been blamed for the disaster by the president-elect, invited Trump to visit Los Angeles and survey the devastation with him. "In the spirit of this great country, we must not politicize human tragedy or spread disinformation from the sidelines," said Newsom. Wildfires occur naturally, but scientists say human-caused climate change is altering weather and changing the dynamics of the blazes. Two wet years in southern California have given way to a very dry one, leaving ample fuel on the ground primed to burn. Emergency managers apologized Friday after false evacuation alerts were erroneously sent to millions of mobile phones, sparking panic. "I can't express enough how sorry I am," said Kevin McGowan, the director of the Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management.
Los Angeles fire chief Kristin Crowley blamed recent funding cuts, telling Fox News affiliate KTTV her department was chronically "understaffed" and "under-resourced."

GCC secretary general receives New Zealand’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Arab News/January 11, 2025
RIYADH: Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Jasem Al-Budaiwi recently received New Zealand’s Ambassador to the Kingdom Charles Kingston at the General Secretariat’s headquarters in Riyadh.Al-Budaiwi congratulated Kingston on his appointment as New Zealand’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, wishing him success in his duties, the General Secretariat wrote in a report. During the meeting, they also discussed a number of topics of mutual interest, notably the progress of negotiations for the free trade agreement between the GCC countries and updates on the joint action plan between the two sides. They also exchanged views on several regional and international issues.​

Sudanese Army Retakes Key City From Paramilitary Forces
This is Beirut/AFP/January 11/2025
The Sudanese military and allied armed groups launched an offensive Saturday on key Al-Jazira state capital Wad Madani, entering the city after more than a year of paramilitary control, the army said. The armed forces "congratulated" the Sudanese people in a statement on "our forces entering the city of Wad Madani this morning". Sudan's army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries have been at war since April 2023, leading to what the UN calls the world's worst displacement crisis and declarations of famine in parts of the northeast African country. A video the army shared on social media showed fighters claiming to be inside Wad Madani, after an army source told AFP they had "stormed the city's eastern entrance". The footage appeared to be shot on the western side of Hantoub Bridge in northern Wad Madani, which has been under RSF control since December 2023. The office of army-allied government spokesman and Information Minister Khalid al-Aiser said the army had "liberated" the city. With a months-long communications blackout in place, AFP was not able to independently verify the situation on the ground. "The army and allied fighters have spread out around us across the city's streets," one eyewitness told AFP from his home in central Wad Madani, requesting anonymity for his safety. Eyewitnesses in army-controlled cities across Sudan reported dozens taking to the streets celebrating the army offensive. In the early months of the war between the army and the RSF, more than half a million people had sought shelter in Al-Jazira, before a lightning offensive by paramilitary forces displaced more than 300,000 in December 2023, according to the United Nations. Most have been repeatedly displaced since, as the feared paramilitaries -- which the United States this week said have "committed genocide" -- moved further and further south. The war has killed tens of thousands and uprooted more than 12 million overall, more than three million of whom have fled across borders.

Venezuela: Nicolas Maduro Sworn In for a 3rd Term, Opposition Denounces a "Coup d'État"
Javier Tovar/AFP/January 11/2025
"I swear": Venezuela's outgoing president Nicolas Maduro, backed by the military and a loyal administration, was sworn in on Friday for a third six-year term during a ceremony described as a "coup d’état" by his rival, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. The latter considers himself the elected president and has called on the military to "disobey."The United States and the European Union, among others, condemned the inauguration, while Russia praised it. "I swear that this new presidential term will be one of peace, prosperity, equality, and a new democracy," declared Nicolas Maduro, while taking the oath in the National Assembly, where his party holds an absolute majority. Once the presidential sash was displaced from his left shoulder to his right side and the "Key of the Ark" necklace—symbolizing access to Simon Bolivar's sarcophagus—was hung around his neck, Maduro insisted: "Do whatever you want, but this constitutional inauguration (...) could not be stopped, and it is a great victory for Venezuelan democracy." Nicolas Maduro even joked about the absence of Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, who had vowed to take the oath in the president’s place. Responding to a noise that interrupted the ceremony, Maduro quipped: "Has Edmundo arrived?" before adding: "As I await his arrival, I’m a little nervous."
A significant security deployment was in place for the event.
The government closed the border with Colombia early Friday morning, because of an "international plot to disturb the peace of Venezuelans." Brazil reported that Caracas had also shut their shared border until January 13.
"Soon"From an undisclosed neighboring country, Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia released a video denouncing a "coup d’état," claiming Maduro had "self-crowned himself dictator." The 75-year-old former ambassador urged the military to "disobey the regime's illegal orders." He stated he was unable to return to Venezuela but promised to do so "soon, very soon."Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, in a social media statement, said she had asked Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, exiled in Spain since September, not to attempt a return, claiming that "the entire air defense system has been activated." She emphasized that "his physical integrity is essential for the ultimate defeat of the regime."Initially scheduled for noon, Maduro's inauguration ceremony was moved up by an hour and a half and lasted two hours. Maduro walked through a guard of honor of soldiers in ceremonial attire to enter the National Assembly, where he warmly shook the hands of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, one of the few heads of state present, alongside Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega. Once sworn in, Maduro, accompanied by hundreds of motorcyclists, left the National Assembly for Fort Tiuna military camp, where a televised loyalty ceremony was held with the armed forces and police. "We reaffirm loyalty and subordination to citizen Nicolas Maduro," declared Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a key figure in suppressing post-election unrest. Alfredo Romero, president of the NGO Foro Penal, which tracks political detentions, reported on Friday that there had been "49 politically motivated arrests since the beginning of the year. And it continues."
The UN Secretary-General has called for the release of all individuals "arbitrarily detained."
"No legitimacy"
The United States denounced the event as a "sham" and an "illegal presidential inauguration," announcing new sanctions against Caracas in coordination with Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. The U.S. also raised the reward for information leading to Maduro's prosecution to $25 million.
“Maduro has no democratic legitimacy,” responded European Union Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas. Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, congratulated Maduro, calling him a faithful ally. The National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Maduro the winner in July with 52% of the vote but did not publish the tally sheets, citing an alleged cyberattack—a claim deemed dubious by many observers. The opposition, which released tally sheets from its monitors, asserts that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, secured over 67% of the vote. Post-election unrest following Maduro’s declared victory resulted in 28 deaths, 200 injuries, and 2,400 arrests.

Biden honors Pope Francis with the Presidential Medal of Freedom
AP/January 12, 2025
WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden on Saturday honored Pope Francis with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with distinction, the highest civilian award given by the president, saying the pontiff was “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world.”
Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to the pope in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency, but Biden canceled his travel plans so he could monitor the wildfires in California. The White House said Biden bestowed the award to the pope during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world. It’s the only time Biden has presented the honor with distinction during his presidency. Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognized when he was vice president by then-President Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago. That was the only time in Obama’s two terms when he awarded that version of the medal.
The citation for the pope says “his mission of serving the poor has never ceased. A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths.”
Biden is preparing to leave office Jan. 20 and has doled out honors to prominent individuals, including supporters and allies, in recent weeks.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on January 11-12/2025
Do Not Fall for Iran's Nuclear Negotiation Trap: A Strategy to Buy Time
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/January 11/ 2025
Lest anyone think that this is a genuine attempt at diplomacy, it is not. Rather, it is a maneuver aimed at deceptively buying time, avoiding sanctions and deflecting impending actions of the Trump administration.
Iran's regime is playing a game of manipulation, apparently hoping to mislead the world and stave off serious consequences -- namely losing their nuclear weapons program -- which, mind-bogglingly, it denies even having, as well as, more importantly, losing their jobs.... It is a tactic known by every four-year old and absolutely should not be taken at face value.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who backed HTS, apparently now sees a neo-Ottoman Turkey finally replacing Iran as the aspiring hegemon in the region, with himself as sultan.
The regime's goal is clear: buy time, reach a sweetheart deal similar to the one it was handed by the Obama administration, secure sanctions relief and opportunities to complete its nuclear weapons.
Unless Iran is stopped, it will continue covertly to advance its nuclear weapons program – regardless, of course, of any agreements made.
Will the incoming Trump administration let themselves be gamed and permit Iran to be capable of threatening the region again as soon as Trump's term is up? Iran's request for negotiations sadly seems part of a larger strategy to enable it to resume its reign of terror. The Trump administration must not allow it to succeed.... Make Persia Safe Again! -- for the Iranian people and for enduring global peace.
The Iranian regime's goal is clear: buy time, reach a sweetheart deal similar to the one it was handed by the Obama administration, secure sanctions relief and opportunities to complete its nuclear weapons.
The Iranian regime has made a sudden and calculated move to engage in talks about nuclear weapons. The UK, France, and Germany have announced that negotiations will begin on January 13.
Lest anyone think that this is a genuine attempt at diplomacy, it is not. Rather, it is a maneuver aimed at deceptively buying time, avoiding sanctions and deflecting impending actions of the Trump administration.
Iran's regime is playing a game of manipulation, apparently hoping to mislead the world and stave off serious consequences -- namely losing their nuclear weapons program -- which, mind-bogglingly, it denies even having, as well as, more importantly, losing their jobs. Their move is not an expression of good will or "putting out feelers" -- it is anything but. It is a tactic known by every four-year old and absolutely should not be taken at face value.
Many Westerners appear afflicted with the starry-eyed mirage that they can bribe, cajole or negotiate Iran's power-happy jihadists into abandoning their dreams of "exporting the revolution," making their nuclear weapons too risky to challenge, and restarting their long-term goal of becoming the hegemon of the Middle East -- with the ultimate goal of delivering "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."
Why, one might well ask, is Iran's regime suddenly seeking nuclear talks just now? For the past four years, under the Biden administration, Iran has been rapidly advancing its nuclear weapons program, pretending to negotiate and openly defying the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by denying inspectors access to the country's nuclear sites. So, why the change of heart? The answer lies not in any newfound willingness to cooperate, but in a combination of factors that have significantly weakened Iran's position.
The first is Iran's weakened military position, largely due to Israel having decimated two of its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as delivering a few sobering hits on Iran itself. Those served to diminish the regime's ability to carry out attacks and destabilize the region before the regime reaches nuclear weapons breakout.
It was the efforts of Israel that indirectly contributed to the fall of Syria's Assad regime at the hands of the Turkish-sponsored terrorist group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed Al-Sharaa, formerly known by his "terrorist" name, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Incidentally, "Sham" means all of the Levant, not just Syria: Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, and Turkey's Hatay Province (Alexandretta).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who backed HTS, apparently now sees a neo-Ottoman Turkey finally replacing Iran as the aspiring hegemon in the region, with himself as sultan.
When Israel weakened Hezbollah -- Iran's staunches ally -- Syrian President Bashar Assad was left without its critical military support. HTS was able to cut through Assad's military forces in a mere 10 days, and overthrew Assad -- who quickly boarded a plane to Moscow
Only a year and a half ago, Iran was firmly in control, directing its proxies to attack Israel so they would receive the retaliatory strikes instead of Tehran, and arming Russia against Ukraine. Like Russia, it started a war. The moral of the story should probably be: Before you start a war, are you ready to lose it?
The second reason Iran is suddenly panting to negotiate a new nuclear deal is the imminent inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump on January 20. The prospect must be causing massive alarm within the Iranian leadership. Trump is expected to reactivate his policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran. The regime's worst nightmare of Trump returning to office, staunchly supporting Israel, and intensifying sanctions, is a package the ruling mullahs cannot cheerfully accept. As a result, Iran is scrambling to negotiate in a last-ditch effort to secure a temporary reprieve.
The Iranian regime's desperation is evident from its sudden overture for talks. If Iran still had the same power and influence it wielded just a year ago, it would not be seeking negotiations. Instead, it would undoubtedly be continuing its posture of confrontation.
The regime's goal is clear: buy time, reach a sweetheart deal similar to the one it was handed by the Obama administration, secure sanctions relief and opportunities to complete its nuclear weapons.
Unless Iran is stopped, it will continue covertly to advance its nuclear weapons program – regardless, of course, of any agreements made.
To President Trump: Please do not fall for Iran's silky overtures. Its regime is nothing but a fraud. It is using diplomacy as a tool to get breathing space to regain its strength. Its nuclear infrastructure must be completely dismantled to eliminate permanently the threat it poses to global security.
Playing at their game of negotiating will only serve to weaken the Iranian people, who are desperate for regime change. It is to be hoped that the incoming Trump administration will fully support the Iranian people in their struggle for freedom. Do not allow the regime's sleazy game to continue. Such an outcome would only benefit a zealous theocracy and, as it has in the past, harm the US and the West. Iran-back proxies, since October 7, 2023, have attacked US troops in the Middle East more than 150 times.
More importantly, please do not stop with just removing Iran's nuclear weapons capability. The regime itself has wreaked havoc on it neighbors, on the Iranian people and on the world for more than four decades. Thanks to Israel, Iran is now on its knees.
Will the incoming Trump administration let themselves be gamed and permit Iran to be capable of threatening the region again as soon as Trump's term is up? Iran's request for negotiations sadly seems part of a larger strategy to enable it to resume its reign of terror. The Trump administration must not allow it to succeed. Now is the time to dismantle this threat once and for all. Make Persia Safe Again! -- for the Iranian people and for enduring global peace.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
*Follow Majid Rafizadeh on X (formerly Twitter)
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https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21299/iran-nuclear-negotiation-trap

Don’t blame Israel — it’s Hamas that has put every Gaza hospital in danger
Arsen Ostrovsky, John Spencer and Brian/ The Hill./January 11/2025
In the last week, there has been intense discussion focused on Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza, reportedly one of the last functioning hospitals in the area. This has been part of a broader ongoing debate in the war between Hamas and Israel, on the status of hospitals in wartime and under what circumstances they might become objects of legitimate military operations.
Under International Humanitarian Law, it is a foundational principle that hospitals receive special protected status. For example, Article 8(2) of the Rome Statute prohibits “intentionally directing attacks against” hospitals provided “they are not military objectives.” Article 11 of the Second Protocol to the Geneva Conventions provides that medical units shall be “protected at all times.”However, this protection ceases if they are “used to commit hostile acts.” These rules of international law are recognized by Israel and implemented during its conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
Hamas, a ruthless terrorist organization, operates without any regard to the norms of international law or value of human life, with a longstanding practice of systematically embedding their operations in hospitals, using civilians as human shields and building military tunnels underneath hospitals.
Fifteen months into the war initiated by Hamas, there is hardly a hospital or medical facility in Gaza the terror group has not turned into a military command center, including the Kamal Adwan Hospital. There, Israel has detained over 240 Hamas terrorists, including some disguised as patients, and found caches of weapons, including guns and explosives. Each of these acts is an undisputed violation of the law of armed conflict.
Among the suspects taken for questioning was the director of the Kamal Adwan Hospital, Hussam Abu Safiya, who is suspected of being a Hamas terrorist leader, in addition to approximately 15 terrorists who infiltrated Israel during the Oct. 7 Massacre. In these circumstances, during which Hamas turned Kamal Adwan Hospital into a terrorist staging ground, the hospital lost its protected status under international law and become a legitimate target for military operations.
Israel’s military objective is clear and defined: to eliminate the military capabilities of Hamas, which continues to use hospitals and other civilian areas in Gaza to plan and execute acts of terror against Israel, as well as the rescue of the remaining 100 hostages that the terror group is holding captive.
However, merely because Hamas has seized hospitals as its own personal launching pads and terrorist command centers does not provide carte blanche to conduct military operations. Nor does it mean that patients and staff inside the hospital immediately lose their civilian status. Under humanitarian law, Israel must still abide by fundamental rules such as distinction, proportionality and precaution. In each case, it has acted in accordance with its obligation.
Based on clear intelligence, Israel targeted a military objective used by Hamas terrorists, as evinced by the approximately 240 operatives arrested. There were hardly any civilian injuries in the operation, indicating that the expected incidental damage was not excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated from the operation.
Israel also took ample precaution, including providing advanced warning, evacuating civilians and providing additional medical supplies to the hospital. Prior to the beginning of the targeted operation, as well as the process during, some 450 patients, as well as caregivers and medical personnel, were evacuated, while tens of thousands of liters of fuel, food and medical supplies for the essential functioning of the hospital were also delivered to Kamal Adwan during this period.
Quite simply, Israel has gone to unprecedented lengths to comply with its obligations pursuant to the law of armed conflict, whereas Hamas is doing everything possible in order to maximize casualties.
In the wake of the targeted counterterrorism operation at Kamal Adwan Hospital, the World Health Organization said that “The systematic dismantling of the health system in Gaza is a death sentence for tens of thousands of Palestinians in need of health care.”
To date, the World Health Organization has not condemned Hamas for the systematic use of hospitals in Gaza for military purposes. The global call to Hamas should be stop putting hospitals in danger. Many ignore that Hamas has systematically dismantled the health system in Gaza, with the acquiescence of an international community that refuses to call it out.
The World Health Organization also fails to acknowledge that Israel is trying to bolster the health system in Gaza, working with many groups to supply the five active hospitals in Northern Gaza and almost 20 field hospitals.
Those who truly care about the wellbeing of civilians in Gaza, and who are rightfully aghast at the scenes coming out of Kamal Adwan Hospital would be well advised to direct their outrage at Hamas, which continues to unconscionably and illegally turn hospitals into their personal control and command centers and severely risk the lives of innocent civilians.
Arsen Ostrovsky is a human rights attorney, CEO of the International Legal Forum and a senior fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security. John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point, codirector of MWI’s Urban Warfare Project and host of the ”Urban Warfare Project Podcast.” Brian L. Cox is an adjunct professor of law at Cornell Law School, a retired U.S. Army judge advocate, and a journalism graduate student at Carleton University. The views here expressed are not necessarily those of The Hill or any of these organizations.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

With Assad out of the way, will Iran choose realpolitik?
F. Andrew Wolf Jr/The Hill/January 11, 202
During World War II, the butler of the British ambassador to Turkey was spying on the Allies. As a butler, he had access to the ambassador’s files and was able to uncover and copy top-secret information, including the Allies’ plans for D-Day. Fortunately, the Germans considered him unreliable and disregarded the information. We may not realize it at the moment, but sometimes a singular incident can have far-reaching effects, setting off a sequence of events no one could have foreseen. The atrocities carried out at the hands of Iran’s proxy Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, have proved just such a moment, with ramifications extending well beyond the slaughter and torture of women and children in Israel. As Israel continues to dismantle Hamas, it has also significantly diminished the effectiveness of another of Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah, closing Lebanon’s border with Syria. With Hezbollah destabilized, an opportunity presented itself in Syria. A former al Qaeda affiliate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, seized the moment (along with other rebel groups) for a long-awaited assault on Assad — securing the fall of the Assad regime within 10 days. The rebels are now in full control of Syria, and with Assad’s “humanitarian” asylum in Russia, Iran’s complex of regional proxies is substantially reduced.
Like dominoes striking each other — Hamas, Hezbollah and finally Syria — regional ambitions of Iranian influence have been severely undermined. Iran is at a crossroads. It can either embrace “realpolitik” through practical, realistic negotiations with the West, or it can “roll the dice” in its quest to become a nuclear power. United Nations Chief Nuclear Inspector Rafael Grossi recently reiterated his concern: Iran was increasing its stores of purified uranium and was perilously close to a concentration required for nuclear weapons. Around the same time, Iran’s former nuclear negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called for discussions to resume regarding the country’s nuclear program. Ostensibly, Iran’s new “open-minded” president, Masoud Pezeshkian, seeks to “engage constructively with the West.”Iran’s vistas, via its no longer substantial “axis of resistance,” are at best severely compromised. Will it choose the more plausible path of “realpolitik” or tempt fate in the face of an emboldened Netanyahu and Trump?Iran has pursued a less extreme foreign policy with the West before, during the presidency of Ali Rafsanjani — exhibiting a more cordial demeanor. A similar policy could conceivably bear fruit again with Pezeshkian.
The question before us is twofold — will Iran choose wisely? And will Trump give “realpolitik” a chance to “bear fruit,” if Iran so chooses?
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Trump’s designee for secretary of State, has been quite vocal about his estimate of the dangers of Iran. Sensing Iran’s weakness, it is possible (via influence from his advisors) that President-elect Trump will accept nothing less than a complete withdrawal from its nuclear program.
It is hoped that cooler and more rational heads prevail in the administration, since much of what drives Iran’s leadership (religious and otherwise) is respect from the West and acceptance by the Arab League. Thus, Iran’s leaders are not keen to abandon that upon which the country has staked so much of its effort for respect and power — its nuclear program. Yet there remains the possibility (and hope) that Iran will employ a more plausible approach in its discourse with the West — conceivably retaining its nuclear program for domestic use only. This will allow Iran to save face.
Today, Middle East experts agree that China, not Iran, poses the top threat to Washington. Iranians mobilized in numbers for democracy in reaction to the 2009 presidential election. And although history is not a sufficient predicate for defending national interests, let us not forget that, according to declassified CIA documents, it was the U.S. and Britain who denied Iran democracy once before — through a CIA/MI6-engineered coup.
In the absence of Assad, there is little reason for Iran to pursue an alternative (and potentially counterproductive) political “nuclear” agenda.
Given Israel’s superior nuclear and conventional military capability, and the anticipated arrival of President-elect Trump, “realpolitik” is Iran’s best option — one of realistic expectations and transparency regarding its nuclear designs. If Israel senses that Iran is opting for a nuclear agenda, it will not hesitate (with or without U.S. acquiescence) to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities. (This plan has already been rehearsed for immediate implementation.)What’s more, Iran is well aware of Israel’s concerns and capabilities, should it forego a “realpolitik” (more pragmatic) solution to its political dilemma.
With the right diplomatic overtures from the Trump administration, Iran can be brought into the orbit of constructive bilateral relations with the West. Several conditions are key to allow Iran and the U.S. to achieve a sustainable nuclear agreement while allowing each to claim credit for success.
The Trump administration should reopen talks with Iran via direct negotiations with Pezeshkian — implementing the “Non-Proliferation Treaty” — to include verification of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran (as compensation) must receive sanctions relief. As a consequence of this achievement, the Persian Gulf countries should establish a nuclear-free zone in the region as a first step toward collective security. The U.S. should conclude the effort through further negotiations to foster a comprehensive agreement between the countries of the region to establish (via treaty) an integrated mechanism towards mutual security and collaborative cooperation. Trump’s administration faces an opportunity for immense possibilities — and yet, great peril. Now is not the time for personalities; instead, it should pursue what is in America’s “long-term” interest: a foreign policy conducive to American strategic leadership, articulated through wise (not personal or convenient) use of economic and political hegemony — one in which a military solution must always remain an option but not necessarily the default option.
**F. Andrew Wolf Jr. is the director of The Fulcrum Institute, an organization of current and former scholars in the humanities, arts and sciences.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

US must rethink its Middle East strategy
Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed/Arab News/January 11, 2025
The Middle East has long confounded US policymakers, challenging their perceptions of stability and democracy. President Joe Biden’s administration, like its predecessors, has grappled with the illusion of a quiet region. Just days before the Oct. 7 attacks, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed satisfaction with the relative calm in the Middle East. This echoes previous misjudgments, such as former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s assertion of stability in Egypt shortly before the dawn of the Arab Spring, and President Jimmy Carter’s characterization of the Shah’s regime in Iran as an “island of stability.” Each such instance illustrates a recurring lesson: The Middle East’s quietude often masks deeper unrest.
Despite the belief among some that US administrations can pivot away from the complexities of the region, the truth remains that the Middle East continually commands attention. Under Biden, the initial tranquility in Gaza belied the underlying tensions that had festered.
Historically, American leaders have viewed the Middle East as a distraction from more pressing global issues, often prioritizing alliances with autocratic regimes over fostering genuine democratic movements. This pattern has perpetuated a cycle of dependency and repression, stifling the aspirations of millions.
Before the Arab Spring, the notion of “linkage theory” suggested that resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict was essential for wider regional progress. However, the uprisings revealed that citizens in fact prioritized their own governments over external issues such as Israel, and therefore sought to directly address domestic grievances such as economic hardship, corruption, and lack of political freedom. While this shift in focus was promising, it also highlighted the disconnect between US policy and the aspirations of Middle Eastern populations. The uprisings demonstrated that although the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a significant factor, it is not the sole determinant of regional stability. Today, Israel remains central to US interests in the region. However, the prioritization of Israeli security has often come at the expense of the democratic aspirations of Arab nations. Many Arab populations harbor anti-Israel sentiments, and democratic elections could lead to governments that are more aligned with these views.
As a result, support for autocratic regimes has become a strategy for maintaining regional stability, even at the cost of suppressing democracy. This reveals the paradox in which the US promotes the pursuit of democracy, while simultaneously bolstering leaders who undermine it.
This dynamic has further contributed to friction between the US and Israel. Many US officials recount Israeli skepticism about American efforts to promote democracy, particularly during the George W. Bush administration and its “Freedom Agenda.” Israeli leaders feared that the democratization of Arab states could lead to the rise of Islamists, and therefore perceived open political systems as potential threats to their security. Such skepticism often manifests as a reluctance to support US initiatives that strive to promote democratic governance in the Arab world.
US authorities have frequently overlooked the long-term implications of supporting authoritarian regimes; although such governments might offer short-term stability, they are inherently fragile. As Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, asserts, the longer an autocracy endures, the more likely it is to collapse. In contrast, stable democracies tend to grow increasingly resilient over time.
The conflation of quietude with stability has led to misguided policies, indicating that a reckoning is overdue. The perception that stability can be maintained through autocracy ignores the aspirations of people who yearn for freedom and justice. The pursuit of stability through autocracy is a short-sighted tactic that ultimately undermines the prospects for peace.
Nevertheless, attention must also be paid to the counterargument; some policymakers argue that autocratic governance in some Middle Eastern nations has prevented the rise of extremist movements, and helped maintain a degree of order amid the chaos. They posit that a swift transition to democracy might create vacuums that terrorist organizations could exploit, jeopardizing regional and global security. Moreover, the stability argument suggests that authoritarianism facilitates economic growth and development without the risks associated with rapid democratic transformations.
The prevailing US approach, therefore, has favored maintaining Israel’s dominance, while often disregarding the voices of hundreds of millions of Arabs. Figures such as journalist and author Gideon Levy criticize the fear-based narratives that dominate Israeli society, suggesting that they distort perceptions of threats and stifle dialogue. While some fears are valid, the overarching culture of anxiety unifies and mobilizes Israeli society, distracting from pressing issues and justifying substantial investment in the military. This fear-driven narrative influences US engagement in the region, perpetuating a cycle of support for repressive regimes.
However, there have been voices that advocated for a more nuanced understanding of peace in the region. Figures such as the late Jimmy Carter exemplified the potential of transcending entrenched narratives. The former president's role in the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement and unwavering commitment to human rights underscored the value of dialogue and understanding. Carter’s warnings about the consequences of occupying Palestinian territories highlight the urgent need for reassessment of US policy, and his message remains relevant in the present geopolitical climate.
Critics might argue that Carter’s approach, particularly his emphasis on human rights, occasionally overlooked practical considerations and strained relations with key regional allies. His advocacy for Palestine, while significant, sometimes alienated those necessary for achieving comprehensive peace, demonstrating the inherent obstacles to his vision. Such tensions reflect a broader challenge in US-Middle East relations: the delicate balance between the promotion of human rights and maintaining crucial alliances. Despite these critiques, Carter’s post-presidential humanitarian efforts shifted public perceptions and provided a model of leadership steeped in integrity and an unwavering pursuit of peace. His legacy serves as a challenge to present-day leaders, urging them to value the welfare of others ahead of personal and geopolitical ambitions when navigating the complexities of Middle Eastern relations.
As tensions rise once again, it is crucial to remember that the promise offered by authoritarian stability is often illusory. The path forward for the Middle East lies in embracing democratic principles that respect the aspirations of its people. The authoritarian regimes propped up by US support frequently lack the legitimacy that comes from genuine public consent.
Acknowledging the complexities of the region, intertwined with democracy and autocracy, will enable the US to contribute to a more stable and just Middle East. The challenge lies in resisting the allure of repeating past mistakes. Acknowledgment of the fact that the status quo is often unsustainable is essential to foster genuine dialogue and promote lasting peace. As the region navigates its future, recognition of the fact that true stability can only emerge from inclusive governance that respects the voices and rights of all citizens is imperative. Moving forward, the US must recalibrate its approach to emphasize support for democratic movements, while simultaneously addressing the legitimate concerns of Israelis and Palestinians. The intricate dynamics of US-Middle East relations call for a reassessment of long-standing policies. The pursuit of stability through autocracy is a short-sighted tactic that ultimately undermines the prospects for peace. By embracing democratic values and recognizing the diverse voices of the region’s populations, the US can position itself as a constructive force in efforts to foster a more stable and equitable Middle East. It is time to embrace a new approach, one that prioritizes the aspirations of the people and acknowledges that true stability can be achieved only through democratic governance and mutual respect. *Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed is an adjunct professor at the University of Arizona’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, in the Department of Biosystems Engineering. He is the author of “Agricultural Development Strategies: The Saudi Experience.” X: @TurkiFRasheed

Libya is now the launchpad for Russia’s renewed ambitions
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 11, 2025
The aftermath of Syria’s long civil war has sent shockwaves throughout global geopolitics that have seen Moscow redeploy key assets to Libya, signifying a deliberate recalibration of strategic priorities. With this move, Russia is not merely shifting military resources; it is shaping Libya into a central hub for long-term power projection. This development comes amid rising competition among great powers in the Middle East and North Africa region, where Russia seeks to forge new economic and security alliances.
Libya, with its geostrategic proximity to Europe and rich energy reserves, offers Russia the ability to enhance its geopolitical leverage in the Mediterranean. Moscow’s maneuver also reflects an intention to foster ties with key players, including Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, positioning itself as a major actor in resolving or perpetuating conflicts depending on its interests.
The decision to refocus efforts on Libya teases Russia’s broader ambitions amid a global rebalancing of alliances in the ash and rubble of the Assad regime’s collapse. The Arab region’s rising geostrategic significance has drawn Russia back to assert influence that echoes Soviet-era ambitions. While Russian trade and arms exports in the region have traditionally lagged behind those of the US and China, its actions in Libya represent an effort to bolster its foothold beyond military priorities.
This repositioning takes place within a complicated mesh of regional politics, involving interplay with nations such as Egypt and Turkiye, impacts on global energy markets, and even disruptions to international commerce. By embedding itself even deeper in Libyan affairs, Moscow is not only addressing immediate strategic needs that were interrupted in Syria, but also seeking to craft a durable foundation for long-term influence in an evolving international order.
Libya, located just 400 miles from Europe’s southern shores, offers Russia a prime geographic position for asserting its influence over both the Mediterranean and the volatile regions of the Sahel. This strategic realignment is not merely about filling the void left by its withdrawal from Syria but also recalibrating its broader geopolitical strategy. Unlike in Syria, where Russia’s military presence was heavily invested in propping up a failing regime amid international isolation, Libya presents an opportunity to anchor its operations more effectively in the African theater.
The presence of the Africa Corps in Libya, formerly known as the Wagner Group, enables Russia to engage in security contracting, arms trades, and direct military interventions without the glaring spotlight of the international community. This approach contrasts with the high-profile, politically costly engagement in Syria. The sheer scale of Russian military logistics moving to Libya, evidenced by the increasing number of military personnel — now numbering nearly 1,800 — and the delivery of about 6,000 tons of weapons, signifies a deliberate pivot. This investment places Russian forces in a pivotal role to influence conflicts in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, where control over resources and political allegiances are constantly in flux.
Thus, Libya is a launchpad for Russia’s renewed ambitions across Africa, backed by a robust military and economic strategy that ties its palpable Mediterranean influence with deeper incursions into the African continent.
This Russian repositioning takes place within a complicated mesh of regional politics.Moreover, Moscow’s increased presence in Libya fundamentally redefines the strategic equation for NATO’s southern defenses. By cementing control over key installations, such as the Al-Jufra air base and the port of Sirte, Russia gains a formidable capability to monitor and potentially obstruct maritime traffic in the central Mediterranean. This development allows Russia to exert pressure on vital NATO supply chains and military routes, posing a direct challenge to the alliance’s operational security.
Furthermore, Libya’s instability provides a fertile ground for Russia to exploit local conflicts, potentially stoking regional tensions to undermine NATO’s cohesion. With European energy supplies still heavily reliant on Mediterranean channels, Russia’s position in Libya might also threaten critical oil and gas routes, adding an economic dimension to its military strategy. As NATO contends with an increasingly assertive Russia in eastern Europe, the Mediterranean emerges as a sophisticated secondary theater where Moscow can dilute the alliance’s focus and resources, compelling NATO to adopt a more dispersed and defensive posture.
Additionally, what makes Libya particularly fertile ground for Russian exploits is its fractured political environment, with power divided between the UN-recognized government in Tripoli and the eastern forces led by Haftar. The Libyan National Army leader, benefiting from Russia’s substantial military support, including mercenary deployments and direct involvement from the Russian armed forces under the Africa Corps banner, has allowed Moscow to secure access to major oil fields, key air bases, and significant smuggling networks. This multifaceted involvement grants Russia enhanced influence over Libya’s resources, strategic locations, and vital resources, ensuring a continuous flow of influence and economic gains — at the expense of ordinary Libyans.
By enmeshing itself in the local economic and military infrastructure, Russia enhances its operational capacity and solidifies alliances that could prove indispensable in counterbalancing Western interests in North Africa, the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa. Moscow’s entrenchment in Libya reflects broader ambitions to bolster its status as a consequential player on the African continent via the Mediterranean region.
In contrast to its earlier efforts in Syria, where the primary goal was to prop up the Assad regime, Russia’s engagement in Libya appears more multidimensional. It is not merely about sustaining a friendly government but about establishing a broad-based strategic presence. This involves integrating military diplomacy with economic initiatives, thereby embedding itself deeply within the Libyan infrastructure, broader regional politics, and the wider African continent’s evolving dynamics.
Thus, Libya emerges as more than just another arena for Moscow’s tactical maneuvers against Western influence; it is the linchpin of Russia’s renewed approach in a restless part of the world. Redeploying assets from Syria to Libya indicates a calculated bet on the long-term strategic dividends that Libya offers. Such a bet is emblematic of Russia’s broader goal to establish itself as a counterweight to its geopolitical rivals. Furthermore, by maintaining a robust presence in Libya, Russia can pivot more dynamically between diverse theaters of operations, ensuring that its global role continues to adapt in an increasingly fragmented world.
Libya has now transformed from an oil-rich battleground for quarrelsome local factions to a cornerstone of Russia’s ambitions. As Moscow reconfigures its operational posture in this part of the world with Libya at its center, it is quickly redefining the North African country’s geostrategic importance even as its frustrating political gridlock persists.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell