English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 09/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
No one who believes in him will be put to shame.
Letter to the Romans 10/01-13/:”Brothers and sisters, my heart’s
desire and prayer to God for them is that they may be saved. I can testify that
they have a zeal for God, but it is not enlightened. For, being ignorant of the
righteousness that comes from God, and seeking to establish their own, they have
not submitted to God’s righteousness. For Christ is the end of the law so that
there may be righteousness for everyone who believes. Moses writes concerning
the righteousness that comes from the law, that ‘the person who does these
things will live by them.’ But the righteousness that comes from faith says, ‘Do
not say in your heart, “Who will ascend into heaven?” ’ (that is, to bring
Christ down) ‘or “Who will descend into the abyss?” ’ (that is, to bring Christ
up from the dead). But what does it say? ‘The word is near you, on your lips and
in your heart’ (that is, the word of faith that we proclaim); because if you
confess with your lips that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God
raised him from the dead, you will be saved. For one believes with the heart and
so is justified, and one confesses with the mouth and so is saved. The scripture
says, ‘No one who believes in him will be put to shame.’ For there is no
distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous
to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall
be saved.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 08-09/2025
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Elias Bejjani: Text and Video: The Story Is
Over, Joseph Aoun Appointed President by Saudi-Iranian-American Agreement...
Come On, Let's Celebrate
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Dima Sadek's Documentary on Shiite Victimhood is a
Blatant and Shameless Falsification
With Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon to hold presidential vote
Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further
uncertainty?
Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun seems increasingly likely to be Lebanon’s new
president
Lebanon set for yet another attempt at electing president
Reports: Opposition to endorse Aoun from Maarab as Saudi envoy pushes for his
election
What is Shiite Duo's stance on Joseph Aoun's election?
Report: Berri's bloc inclined to vote for Joseph Aoun
Bassil says any vote for Aoun should be considered 'spoiled'
France's Le Drian in Lebanon to help unlock yearslong political stalemate
Report: US says Israel to withdraw in 15 days but will keep strategic hills
US shifts $100 mn in military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon to bolster
ceasefire
Mikati 'glad' Lebanon 'will have a president tomorrow'
Hochstein reportedly tells MPs they're free in picking president
Who’s in the Frame to Be Lebanon’s Next President?
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 08-09/2025
US
Military Carries Out Airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthis
After US Exemption, UN Says More Significant Syria Sanctions Work Needed
Syria’s Leader Meets with Bahraini Diplomatic Delegation
Syria to Receive Electricity-generating Ships from Qatar, Türkiye
Israel to conceal soldiers’ identities after Brazilian probe into war crimes
allegations
Israel’s military releases interrogation video in bid to defend assault on Gaza
hospitals
Israeli strikes kills 19 in southern Gaza, health officials say
Israeli military recovers body of a hostage in Gaza and is examining the
identity of a second body
Three Palestinians, including two children, killed in West Bank, according to
WAFA
The remains of at least 1 Israeli hostage are found in Gaza, army says
Why Is "Or There Will be All Hell to Pay" Not the Entire Negotiation?
In Verified Footage, New Syrian Justice Minister Presided Over Woman’s 2015
Execution
U.S. continues to target the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
Iran slams Macron's ‘deceitful’ remarks on its role as a regional security
threat
An Italian journalist is freed from detention in Iran and returns home
Ukraine claims it struck a key military fuel depot deep inside Russia
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 08-09/2025
Tehran’s triad: propaganda, proxies, and preparedness/Janatan Sayeh/ FDD's Long
War Journal/January 08/2025
Trump’s year of opportunity against Iran/Janatan Sayeh & Saeed Ghasseminejad/Washington
Examiner/January 08/2025
The New Orleans Terror Attack: Why It’s Not So ‘Senseless’ After All/Raymond
Ibrahim/The Stream/January 08/2025
Syria… and Hysteria/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
On the Margins of the 'Regime and Society' Question in Syria/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq
Al Awsat/January 08/2025
The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 08-09/2025
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video:
Elias Bejjani: Text and Video: The Story Is Over,
Joseph Aoun Appointed President by Saudi-Iranian-American Agreement... Come On,
Let's Celebrate
January 9, 2025
Based on analysis and without official or confirmed information, we expect that
today, Thursday, January 9, 2025, at 12 noon Beirut time, Army Commander General
Joseph Aoun will be appointed as President of the Republic. The rubber-stamp
Parliament, led by the eternal corrupt and Trojan Speaker Nabih Berri,
specialized in submissiveness, will endorse the decision without objection. This
is because all the Members of Parliament fundamentally lack independent, free,
and sovereign will, as they are either followers of their local political party
owners or Trojan agents and soldiers serving foreign states, as is the case with
the so-called 'Party of God,' blasphemously named Hezbollah.
Furthermore, based on analysis and numerous political commentaries and
assessments, we believe that the presidential breakthrough came as a result of a
Saudi-Iranian agreement blessed by the United States, accompanied by a binding
set of conditions. All we hope is that Saudi commitments to Iran are strictly
limited to funding the reconstruction of Shiite areas destroyed during the
Hezbollah war with Israel and do not include leaving Hezbollah armed or granting
it any political or partisan role.
The positive or negative judgment on the new president and the government that
will come with him will be based solely on one issue: closing Lebanon as an
operational base for all those involved in the deceitful trade of so-called
resistance and liberation, the rhetoric of throwing Jews into the sea, praying
in Jerusalem, and the culture of death glorification. Of course, this includes
recognizing the State of Israel, as all Arab states have done for years.
Come on, let's celebrate, offer congratulations, and pray for Lebanon's
liberation from the Iranian occupation, the criminal terrorist Hezbollah, and
the corrupt political and partisan elite.
Elias
Bejjani/Text & Video: Dima Sadek's Documentary on Shiite Victimhood is a Blatant
and Shameless Falsification
Elias Bejjani/January 07/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/138797/
"Enough with the attacks on what is
referred to as 'Political Maronism' as a cover for disasters and a justification
for the crimes, heresies, terrorism, and atrocities committed in the eras that
followed. These periods were marked by jihadists, Arab nationalists, leftists,
and so-called resistance merchants abandoning Lebanon's values of freedom,
independence, democracy, and coexistence.
In reality, there was never a historical period of 'Political Maronism' in
Lebanon. Rather, it was an era of independence, freedom, progress, peace,
openness, democracy, art, culture, and leadership.
The so-called "Political Maronism" was Lebanon's only true era of independence
following liberation from the French Mandate.
Every era that followed was marked by submission and subjugation to Palestinian,
Syrian, and Iranian occupations driven by sectarian motives that destroyed
Lebanon, obliterated its sovereignty, displaced its people, and dismantled its
institutions—most glaringly evident in the ongoing crimes of the Iranian Shiite
duo. In the context of Lebanon's continued Iranianization and the attempts to
beautify this era, Dima Sadek's documentary aired yesterday on MTV under the
title "Shiite Victimhood."
This fabricated and falsified documentary has no connection to history, truth,
or facts. It is nothing but deception, a deliberate distortion aimed at
misleading the Lebanese public and justifying the crimes and Persian agenda of
the Iranian Shiite duo with vulgarity and audacity.
For countless reasons, the genuine independence era, misrepresented as
"Political Maronism," must never be equated with any political phase that
followed.
The Shiite duo has committed heinous crimes against Lebanon, holding their sect
hostage, alienating it from its homeland, and plunging it into disasters.
Therefore, the so-called "Shiite duo" has no connection to Lebanon or the Shiite
community itself.
Yes, absolutely, the Shiites are a respected and influential Lebanese component
whose rights should be equal to those of all Lebanese, and their duties should
also be bound by the state, the law, the constitution, and national charters.
No to Dima Sadek's leftist-leaning documentary, driven by dreams of throwing
Israel and the Jews into the sea while deceitfully exploiting the Palestinian
cause.
In conclusion, the leaders of the Shiite duo must be prosecuted for all the
crimes they have committed against Lebanon and the Shiite community,
specifically Hezbollah, which must be prohibited from engaging in any political,
social, or cultural activities.
With Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon to hold presidential vote
Laila Bassam, Tom Perry/Reuters/January 8, 2025
BEIRUT (Reuters) -Lebanon's parliament will try to elect a president on
Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political
landscape shaken by Israel's war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's
ally Bashar al-Assad in neighbouring Syria.
The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country's sectarian
power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October,
2022. None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats
to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus
candidate. The vote marks the first test of Lebanon's power balance since the
Iran-backed Shi'ite group Hezbollah - which propelled its then Christian ally
Aoun to the presidency in 2016 - emerged badly pummelled from the war with
Israel.It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle
East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades,
both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah. Reflecting the shifts,
Hezbollah and its ally the Shi'ite Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih
Berri have dropped their insistence on Suleiman Frangieh, their declared
candidate for the last two years, and are ready to go with a less divisive
figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said. Candidates in
focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun - said by Lebanese politicians
to enjoy U.S. approval - Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund
official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari
- head of General Security, a state security agency. Caretaker Prime Minister
Najib Mikati said he felt happy because "God willing, tomorrow we will have a
new president", according to a statement from his office. French Foreign
Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio,
saying the election was "a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of
peace" and also for Lebanon's economic and social recovery. However, two of the
sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would
be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in
a second round. Reflecting Western and regional interest in the vote, French and
Saudi envoys met Lebanese politicians in Beirut on Wednesday. Four Lebanese
political sources who met the Saudi envoy, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, last week
said he spelt out preferred qualifications which signal Saudi support for Aoun.
Saudi Arabia was once a big player in Lebanon, vying with Tehran for influence
in Beirut, before seeing its role eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah.
HEZBOLLAH STILL SEEN WITH SWAY
Aoun, head of Lebanon's U.S.-backed army, would still need 86 votes because his
election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state
employee, Berri has said. A State Department spokesperson said it was "up to
Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external
actor". "We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new
president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political
institutions," the spokesperson said. Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last
week there was "no veto" on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a
terrorist group by the United States, will not support Aoun. Aoun has a key role
in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The
terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli
troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces. Still reeling from a financial collapse in
2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild. Much of the damage is in
Shi'ite majority areas. Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad's
ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon. Lebanon's
Maronite Bishops called on lawmakers to elect a president, urging a "national
awakening". Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, was
not certain anyone would be elected, even after the major shift in the balance
of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah's weapons have long been a source of
division. Underlining the influence Hezbollah and Amal still wield, he said the
only way a president could be elected would be if they agreed on Aoun or Azour.
But if they tried to install their preferred candidate, this would "sever the
oxygen from Lebanon". Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that
Riyadh had never fully disengaged from Lebanon and that outside countries should
not tell Lebanese what to do.
Will Lebanon fill the
presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?
Sherouk Zakaria/Arab News/January 08, 2025
DUBAI: Wracked by economic crisis and the recent conflict between Israel and the
Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to
break its political paralysis and elect a new president. There are many
contenders for the coveted role, but whoever is chosen by members of the
Lebanese Parliament to form the next government will have important implications
for the nation’s recovery and trajectory. If Thursday’s election is successful,
it could end the debilitating power vacuum that has prevailed since Michel
Aoun’s presidential term ended in October 2022, leaving governance in Lebanon in
limbo. Settling on a candidate is now more urgent than ever, as Lebanon faces
mounting pressure to stabilize its political and economic landscape ahead of the
impending expiration of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.
None of Lebanon’s major parliamentary blocs have officially announced a
presidential candidate, but several potential contenders have emerged.One
possible candidate is General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed
Forces, who local media have tipped as the most likely winner. Widely regarded
as politically neutral, Aoun’s military experience and perceived impartiality
could bring stability and credibility, both domestically and internationally.
His success would hinge on building a capable Cabinet with a comprehensive plan
to stabilize the country’s governance, economic recovery and security, as well
as lead postwar reconstruction efforts and the return of those displaced.
Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces
from southern territories in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701 would also
require delicate maneuvering. However, his candidacy faces legal hurdles due to
a constitutional requirement that two years must pass between his military role
and the presidency.
Another potential contender is Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces. As a
vocal Hezbollah critic with significant support among some Christian
communities, Geagea could appeal to anti-Hezbollah factions. His extensive
political experience and advocacy for reform could help him to prioritize
state-building, which many Lebanese see as crucial for the country’s future. His
anti-Hezbollah stance could also restructure Lebanon’s stance in regional
conflicts and international relations. However, his polarizing history from
Lebanon’s civil war could prove to be a barrier to national unity, raising fears
that his candidacy could deepen divisions in Lebanon’s already fragmented
political system. Suleiman Frangieh, head of the pro-Hezbollah Marada movement,
is another possibility, but risks alienating Christian communities and
international allies. Hailing from a prominent political dynasty, Frangieh is
the grandson of a former president and has himself held various governmental and
parliamentary roles. However, being a close ally of Hezbollah and the former
Assad regime in Syria makes him a polarizing figure. Finally, Jihad Azour, a
former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official, represents a
technocratic option with broad political appeal. He enjoys support from key
factions, including the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party led by
Walid Jumblatt, several Sunni MPs, influential Maronite religious figures and
opposition groups. Azour’s economic expertise could help to address Lebanon’s
financial crisis, but some among the opposition view him as a continuation of
past administrations. Securing the presidency in Lebanon requires broad-based
political consensus — a challenge in its deeply divided Parliament. Any major
faction can block a nomination that does not align with its agenda. Under
Lebanon’s constitution, presidential elections require a two-thirds majority in
the first round of parliamentary voting (86 out of 128 members) and a simple
majority of 65 votes in subsequent rounds.
The Lebanese president’s powers, as defined by the constitution, reflect a blend
of ceremonial and executive functions within a confessional system of governance
that allocates political roles based on religious representation. The
president’s powers are limited by those of the prime minister, the council of
ministers and Parliament, reflecting Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system
established by the 1943 National Pact and reaffirmed by the 1989 Taif Agreement.
Lebanese presidents are traditionally drawn from the Maronite Christian
community, as stipulated by the confessional system. This role is critical in
maintaining the delicate political balance in the country.
Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors,
which could impact the vote’s outcome.
Hezbollah has long dominated Lebanon’s political landscape, parliamentary
dynamics and government composition. However, its devastating war with Israel,
which began in October 2023 and ended with a fragile ceasefire in November 2024,
gutted its leadership and depleted much of its public support.
Hezbollah’s failure to deter Israel’s war in Gaza or mount a sufficient defense
against Israeli air and ground attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon has
raised doubts about its remaining political influence in steering the selection
of a presidential candidate. The election also follows the sudden downfall of
Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, toppled by armed opposition groups after a
13-year civil war. This shift has profoundly impacted Syria’s relationship with
Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon. Syria’s influence on Lebanon
historically included backing Maronite militias, interfering in political
decisions, maintaining a 29-year military occupation and facilitating the flow
of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. The change of power in Damascus adds
uncertainty to Lebanon’s already fragile situation. Regardless of these regional
shifts, Lebanon’s next president will face the daunting task of guiding the
country out of its economic mire while leading postwar reconstruction efforts.
Lebanon’s economic situation remains dire, with its financial collapse in 2019
described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history. The Lebanese
pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value against the US dollar on the
black market, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of
citizens. Public services, including electricity, health care and water supply,
have nearly collapsed, and unemployment has soared. More than 80 percent of the
population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN. Efforts to
secure international aid, including talks with the IMF, have stalled due to
political gridlock and resistance to reforms. The new president will need
regional and international standing to rally support for Lebanon’s recovery.
Whoever secures the presidency will face a formidable task in addressing
Lebanon’s economic, political and social challenges. The alternative is
continued paralysis, with devastating consequences for the country’s future.
Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun
seems increasingly likely to be Lebanon’s new president
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/January 08, 2025
BEIRUT: A day before the Lebanese parliament was due to assemble to discuss the
election of a president — an office that has remained vacant for more than 26
months — there was a flurry of activity on Wednesday including intensified
discussions, communications and declarations.
Reports in the afternoon suggested that Hezbollah’s preferred candidate,
Suleiman Frangieh, “may announce his withdrawal from the presidential race,”
leaving army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as the leading contender. The day was marked
by a visit from French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who arrived in Beirut on
Tuesday evening and was expected to attend the parliamentary presidential
election session on Thursday. He held meetings with several political and
parliamentary figures, during which he reportedly recommended Aoun for
“consideration without any preconditions.” This was in relation to the bloc of
Hezbollah and Amal Movement MPs who opposed the general’s nomination on the
grounds that his election would require a constitutional amendment because he
still serves in his capacity as commander of the army. The head of Hezbollah’s
parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, was quoted after meeting the French envoy
as saying: “Hezbollah will not stand in the way of the Lebanese people’s
consensus on the name of a president for the republic.”Media estimates suggest
that Aoun, if he secures the support of Hezbollah and Amal, would win 95 votes
in the 128-member parliament. This level of support would mean a constitutional
amendment is not needed.Events leading up to Thursday’s session suggested all
parliamentary blocs are committed to attending, which would ensure the quorum
required for the election is reached. The presidency has been vacant since
former president Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022. Previous attempts to
appoint a successor failed amid disagreements between political factions about
suitable candidates.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he was feeling “joy for the first time since
the presidential vacancy as, God willing, we will have a new president for the
republic tomorrow,” raising hopes that the office might finally be filled.
One political observer said there is now the real possibility that “all members
of parliament, regardless of their political affiliations, would choose their
candidate within the framework of consensus and understanding during the voting
sessions, which will remain open as confirmed by the speaker of parliament,
Nabih Berri, until” a decision is reached. This renewed optimism was in contrast
to the prior skepticism about the possibility that parliamentary blocs would be
able to successfully convene a session to elect a president, given their
previous failures to reach a consensus on a candidate who could secure a
majority in the first round of voting. The electoral session on Thursday will be
the 13th of its kind. During the previous one, in June 2024, the candidate
favored by Hezbollah and its allies, former minister and Marada Movement leader
Suleiman Frangieh, who was close to the Assad regime in Syria, faced the
candidate favored by the Free Patriotic Movement and opposition parties, former
Minister of Finance Jihad Azour, who is director of the Middle East and Central
Asia department at the International Monetary Fund.
During that session, Frangieh received 51 votes in the first round of voting and
Azour 59. When the totals were announced, Hezbollah and Amal MPs withdrew from
the session, thereby depriving it of the quorum required for a second round of
voting, as stipulated by the constitution.
Against this background of long-running political divisions resulting in
deadlock within the parliament, and in light of the war between Israel and
Hezbollah, the number of presidential candidates has dwindled from 11 to just a
few names. Aside from Aoun, Frangieh and Azour, the other candidates whose names
continued to circulate to varying degrees on Wednesday included Samir Geagea,
the head of the Lebanese Forces party, which heads the parliament’s biggest
Christian bloc. However, he is fiercely opposed by Hezbollah.
Less-discussed candidates include the acting chief of Lebanon’s General Security
Directorate, Elias Al-Bayssari; MP Ibrahim Kanaan, who resigned from the Free
Patriotic Movement to join the Independent Consultative Parliamentary Gathering;
and former ambassador Georges Al-Khoury, a retired brigadier general. Al-Khoury
has the support of Maronite Patriarchate, Speaker Berri and the Free Patriotic
Movement, but the majority of the opposition rejects his candidacy.
MP Neemat Frem, who has presented a political and economic vision for the
country, is also a candidate. He is on good terms with the Patriarchate and the
opposition. Others include Farid Al-Khazen, who is also on good terms with Berri
and close to the Patriarchate, and Ziad Baroud, a human rights activist and
former minister of interior who is seen as a consensus candidate. The
parliamentary blocs continued to hold talks on Wednesday afternoon to discuss
preferred candidates. Lebanese Forces MP Fadi Karam said: “Starting today, there
has been a significant shift toward having Joseph Aoun as a president.”
During a meeting on Wednesday, the Maronite Archbishops Council called for “a
national parliamentary awakening that leads tomorrow to the election of a
president who brings together the country’s sons and daughters within the
framework of national unity, solidarity and reform, allowing Lebanon to regain
its leading role in the East.”The archbishops said: “The opportunity has become
appropriate and available for national deliberation on the importance of
Lebanon’s progress toward a positive neutrality that saves the country from the
damage of conflicts and drives it toward a healthy cycle of one fruitful
national life.”
Lebanon set for yet another
attempt at electing president
Agence France Presse/January 08/2025
Lebanese political heavyweights held talks Wednesday a day ahead of a
parliamentary session to elect a president, but even with key player Hezbollah
weakened by war, there is no guarantee of consensus. The tiny Mediterranean
country, already deep in economic and political crisis, has been without a
president for more than two years amid bitter divisions between Hezbollah and
its opponents. Army chief Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner,
with backers of his candidacy saying he might be the man to oversee the rapid
deployment of the military in south Lebanon. Under the terms of a November 27
ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the powerful movement is to pull its
fighters away from areas near the border, leaving only the national army to
deploy there. But some parties still appear reluctant to back the army chief in
the 13th attempt to choose a new leader since the term of the last president,
Michel Aoun, ended in October 2022. While their family names are identical,
Joseph Aoun and Michel Aoun are not related. In a country still scarred by a
1975-1990 civil war, the divided ruling class usually agrees on a candidate
before any successful parliamentary vote is held. After a year of war left
Hezbollah weakened but not crushed, Lebanon's politicians have come under
renewed external pressure to pick a leader.
French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian was on Wednesday in Lebanon to encourage all
sides to elect a president. A French diplomatic source said he had met Hezbollah
parliament leader Mohammad Raad as well as other political blocs, insisting "on
the urgency of electing a president of the republic, the first step into turning
around Lebanese institutions".
Visiting U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein on Monday urged the ruling class to take
advantage of the truce between Israel and Hezbollah and reach "political
consensus". Lebanese analyst Karim Bitar said Aoun seemed "to be supported by
the United States and to a lesser extent by France and Saudi Arabia".
'Single candidate'?
Local media reported that Saudi deputy foreign minister Zeid bin Farhan was in
Lebanon on Wednesday after a previous trip last week. Al-Akhbar newspaper, which
is close to Hezbollah, said the Gulf nation was in touch with France, the United
States and Egypt, and "trying to convince hesitating blocs to back Aoun". The
four nations, as well as Qatar, have been calling for a new president to
kickstart reforms necessary to lift the country out of an unprecedented
financial crisis it fell into in 2019. Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib
Mikati said on Wednesday he was optimistic. "For the first time since the
presidency became vacant, I am pleased that God willing tomorrow we will have a
president," he said.
Lebanon's powerful parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally, 86-year-old Nabih
Berri, has invited Le Drian to attend Thursday's vote. Under multi-confessional
Lebanon's power-sharing system, the president must be a Maronite Christian and
traditionally needs backing from at least one of the country's two major
Christian parties. Of these, the Lebanese Forces was to meet with allies and
independent lawmakers in the evening, and announce their "support for a single
candidate", a source within the party told AFP. They did not say whether this
would be Joseph Aoun, who if elected would be Lebanon's fifth army commander
made president. Berri's parliamentary bloc held a similar meeting.
Local media has reported that Berri does not believe Aoun to be a consensus
candidate and is against a constitutional amendment to be able to elect a person
still in a high office to the post. Under the current constitution, the
candidate must have not held such a position for at least two years. The other
main Christian party, The Free Patriotic Movement led by Michel Aoun's
son-in-law Jebran Bassil, is firmly against Joseph Aoun.
'We don't know' -
Other names circulating include Bassil, and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.
Former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official Jihad Azour,
and acting security chief Elias Baissari, who Al-Akhbar says enjoys Berri's
support, could also be candidates. Critics have accused Hezbollah of impeding
previous attempts to elect a president. But Israel dealt Hezbollah a serious
blow during the latest war between the two sides and killed the group's longtime
leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The group has also lost a key ally in
neighboring Syria since Islamist-led forces toppled president Bashar al-Assad
last month."Hezbollah today is no longer capable of imposing someone really
close to its camp," Bitar said. But "it can still oppose someone that they
really distrust".
In Beirut, Lebanese national Maysa Azzi said she hoped there would be a
president on Thursday."But we don't know what will happen because it was never
us choosing," she said.
"Either foreign powers did, or local stakeholders did to protect corruption. I
hope this time it will be one we want."
Reports: Opposition to endorse Aoun from Maarab as Saudi
envoy pushes for his election
Naharnet/January 08/2025
The opposition will hold a meeting in Maarab at 7:00 pm to announce support for
Army chief Joseph Aoun’s presidential nomination, media reports said on
Wednesday, a day prior to a presidential election session called for by Speaker
Nabih Berri. Saudi envoy Yazid bin Mohammad meanwhile arrived Wednesday morning
in Beirut and will hold political meetings in an attempt to secure Aoun's
election as president, media reports said. Al-Jadeed television had overnight
reported talks between Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil and Hezbollah
official Wafiq Safa, as well as a “secret” meeting between Bassil and Berri.
“Bassil told Berri that he prefers picking a figure who is close to the
international community, proposing former ministers Jihad Azour and Ziad Baroud,”
al-Jadeed said.
What is Shiite Duo's stance on Joseph Aoun's election?
Naharnet/January 08/2025
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are still rejecting Army chief Joseph Aoun's
presidential nomination, al-Jadeed TV reported on Wednesday. “The Shiite Duo is
maintaining its stance that the army chief’s election requires a constitutional
amendment and they will not agree to a constitutional amendment,” al-Jadeed
said. “As long as Suleiman Franjieh is a candidate, our choice is still Suleiman
Franjieh, but we are open to several names, including Maj. Gen. Elias al-Bayssari,
and we will not elect a president who constitutes a violation of the
constitution and sovereignty together,” Shiite Duo sources told the channel,
apparently referring to Aoun.The constitution stipulates that any first-grade
civil servant like Aoun should leave their post at least six months prior to
being elected president. “The Shiite Duo’s meetings are continuing and
coordination with the Free Patriotic Movement is ongoing,” al-Jadeed reported,
adding that Hezbollah and Amal will not announce their candidate prior to the
presidential election session. Al-Jadeed later reported that MP Mohammad Raad of
Hezbollah expressed in his meeting Wednesday with French envoy Jean-Yves Le
Drian that “Hezbollah will not stand in the way of Lebanese consensus over a
president.”
Report: Berri's bloc inclined to vote for Joseph Aoun
Naharnet/January 08/2025
The Development and Liberation bloc of Speaker Nabih Berri has become inclined
to vote for Army chief Joseph Aoun in Thursday’s presidential election session,
media reports said Wednesday afternoon.“The Development and Liberation Bloc is
inclined to vote for General Joseph Aoun,” An-Nahar newspaper reported.
Development and Liberation sources meanwhile told LBCI television that in its
statement earlier in the day, the bloc had “reaffirmed its support for consensus
among the Lebanese.”“If this consensus is directed towards electing the army
commander, we will endorse it,” the sources added.
Sky News Arabia, however, quoted sources as saying that “Berri has not yet given
a positive answer regarding his and Hezbollah's position on the election of
Joseph Aoun.” Radio VDL News (93.3) for its part quoted senior sources as saying
that “everything that is being circulated about the Shiite Duo’s endorsement of
Army chief Joseph Aoun is incorrect.”The reports are aimed at “influencing all
parties and creating a presidential wave,” the sources added.
Bassil says any vote for Aoun should be considered
'spoiled'
Naharnet/January 08/2025
As Lebanese lawmakers prepare to elect a president on Thursday, some parties are
still reluctant to support leading candidate army chief Joseph Aoun, who seems
to be supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia. The Free
Patriotic Movement still has not announced its official candidate, but its
leader Jebran Bassil has said that electing Aoun is not constitutional. "Any
vote for Aoun (in the upcoming January 9 session) should be considered a spoiled
vote according to the constitution," Bassil told LBCI in an interview late
Tuesday. He said he supports former finance minister and International Monetary
Fund official Jihad Azour and is open to acting security chief Elias Baissari.
When we proposed Azour, we did not consider him a confrontation candidate,"
Bassil said, adding that he is against imposing a candidate on any component.
But Hezbollah said Azour was a "confrontation and challenge candidate" after the
opposition and the FPM agreed on his name over a year ago. Bassil said that Amal
and Hezbollah must show more flexibility. "If they want a consensual candidate,
they must reach consensus with other parties, including the Lebanese Forces."
The Lebanese Forces have still not declared their candidate but LF leader Samir
Geagea has said he is willing to consider the nomination of Aoun if Hezbollah
and Amal officially endorse him for the presidency. Geagea had previously said
he might run for president himself.
Aoun also enjoys support from the Kataeb party, independent MPs, and the PSP's
Democratic Gathering bloc, but Hezbollah and Amal are still reluctant to endorse
him and, according to reports, their candidate will not be announced before
Thursday. Yet, Hezbollah said it only has a veto on Geagea and not on Aoun,
while ally and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has been reported as saying he
opposes any constitutional amendment. The constitution stipulates that
presidential candidates should not have held high public office for the past two
years, which would technically disqualify Aoun. If elected, Aoun would be
Lebanon's fifth army commander made president, and the fourth in a row.
France's Le Drian in Lebanon to help unlock yearslong
political stalemate
Associated Press/January 08/2025
France’s special envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, met Wednesday in Beirut
with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri as he visits Lebanon in an attempt to help
the parliament elect a president — a position that has been empty for more than
two years amid sharp political and sectarian divides. Lebanon’s parliament is
scheduled to meet on Thursday to elect a president. Le Drian will attend the
session at the invitation of Berri. His visit comes as part of ongoing efforts
to "enable the Lebanese to elect a president, in accordance with the principles
agreed upon in Doha in July 2023," according to a statement from his office. He
is working alongside members of the Quintet — France, the U.S., Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, and Egypt — to push for a resolution to the prolonged stalemate. Le Drian
urged lawmakers to reach a consensus, emphasizing that electing a president is
"the first step toward the urgent reactivation of Lebanon’s institutions and the
restoration of the country’s sovereignty," according to the statement. Local
media reports said Le Drian will push for the election of army chief Joseph Aoun,
ahead of Thursday's session. A French diplomatic source said he had met
Hezbollah parliament leader Mohammad Raad as well as other political blocs,
insisting "on the urgency of electing a president of the republic, the first
step into turning around Lebanese institutions". It remains to be seen how much
Lebanon's political landscape has shifted in recent months after Hezbollah, a
powerful political actor in the country, was severely hobbled after the war with
Israel, which killed top officials including longtime leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah, as well as the overthrow of President Bashar Assad in neighboring
Syria.Former President Michel Aoun, an ally of Iran-backed Hezbollah, finished
his term in October 2022.
Report: US says Israel to withdraw in 15 days but will keep
strategic hills
Naharnet/January 08/2025
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein said during the latest meeting of the ceasefire
monitoring committee that Israel would withdraw within 15 days from south
Lebanon’s western, central and eastern sectors, al-Akhbar newspaper reported on
Wednesday. Hochstein and the committee’s co-chair, U.S. general Jasper Jeffers,
also “agreed to an Israeli plan to keep control of three strategic hills” inside
Lebanon, the daily added. According to informed sources, Hochstein’s “plan” is
divided into three phases. “During the first five days, there will be a
withdrawal from the western sector between Ras al-Naqoura and Rmeish. In the
next five days, there will be a withdrawal from the central sector between
Rmeish and Mays al-Jabal, while in the final five days there will be a
withdrawal from the eastern sector between Mays al-Jabal and Shebaa,” the
sources said. Israel will meanwhile build “military bases” on three strategic
hills inside Lebanon, al-Akhbar reported. According to the sources, the three
hills are the al-Labbouneh forest in the outskirts of Naqoura and Alma al-Shaab;
the Blat mountain between Marwahin, Ramyeh, Beit Leef and Qawzah; and the al-Hamamis
hill between the plains of Khiam and al-Wazzani. The three hills face the
Israeli settlements of the Western Galilee, the settlements of Zar’it and Shtula,
and the settlement of Metula. These hills allow Israel to “expose vast areas in
the three sectors south of the Litani River,” the sources added. “These are
uninhabited hills that contain no buildings, which allows the occupation forces
to easily move toward Lebanese territory to carry out an attack if needed,” the
sources said.
US shifts $100 mn in military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon to bolster
ceasefire
Associated Press/January 08/2025
The Biden administration in its final days is shifting more than $100 million in
military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon as it tries to bolster a ceasefire
agreement it helped mediate between Israel and Hezbollah. In separate notices
sent to Congress, the State Department said it was moving $95 million in
military assistance intended for Egypt and $7.5 million for Israel toward
supporting the Lebanese army and its government. The notices were dated Jan. 3
and obtained by The Associated Press on Tuesday. Most of the money will go to
the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have a critical role in standing up the
ceasefire that was agreed to in November following an all-out war between
Israeli and Hezbollah that battered much of southern and eastern Lebanon for two
months. It is intended to help the LAF deploy in the south of the country and
supplement the role of the U.N. peacekeeping mission patrolling the so-called
Blue Line, which has separated Israel and Lebanon since the end of a monthlong
Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006. "Successful implementation (of the ceasefire) will
require an empowered LAF, which will need robust assistance from the United
States and other partners," the State Department said in the notices, both of
which used nearly identical language to explain the funding shifts. Both Israel
and Hezbollah agreed to pull their forces out of southern Lebanon before the end
of January, with compliance to be overseen by the Lebanese army and U.N.
peacekeepers. "U.S. security assistance to the LAF increases its capacity as the
country's only legitimate military force and defender of Lebanon's territorial
integrity, enables the LAF to prevent potential destabilization from ISIS and
other terrorist groups, and enables the LAF to provide security both for the
Lebanese people and for U.S. personnel," the State Department said. Pro-Israel
members of Congress and others have in the past complained about any diversion
of U.S. assistance to Israel, although it was not immediately clear if there
would be objections to such a small amount of shifted money.
At the same time, some of those who have been forceful advocates of Israel and
critics of U.S. assistance to the Lebanese military have often complained that
it has been infiltrated by Hezbollah. The notices rejected that claim. "U.S.
support to the LAF reinforces the LAF as an important institutional
counterweight to Hezbollah, which receives weapons, training, and financial
support from Iran," the State Department said. "The LAF continues to be an
independent, non-sectarian institution in Lebanon, and is respected across all
sectors."
In a third notice, also sent to Congress on Jan. 3, the department said it was
going to provide $15 million to Lebanon's Internal Security Forces to ensure
that they become the primary law enforcement entity in the country and assist
the LAF in controlling areas in the south.
That money will primarily be used to rebuild police stations, improve radio
communications and purchase vehicles, the notice said. The third notice also
informed lawmakers that the administration would provide $3.06 million to the
Palestinian Authority police to support its operations in the West Bank and $2.5
million to Jordan's Public Security Directorate to support its response to
public demonstrations.
Mikati 'glad' Lebanon 'will have a president tomorrow'
Naharnet/January 08/2025
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday voiced optimism over the
election of a new president in Thursday’s electoral session.“Today, for the
first time since the presidential vacuum started, I feel glad, because God
willing we will have a new president tomorrow,” Mikati said. Lebanese lawmakers
are due to meet on Thursday to elect a president, but analysts say that even
with key political player Hezbollah weakened by war, white smoke is not
guaranteed. The tiny Mediterranean country, already deep in economic and
political crisis, has been without a president for more than two years amid
bitter divisions between Hezbollah and its opponents.
Hochstein reportedly tells MPs they're free in picking president
Naharnet/January 08/2025
MPs who took part in meetings with visiting U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said the
latter noted that Army chief Joseph Aoun is trusted by Washington and that
cooperation with him has been successful, a media report said. But Hochstein
added that the Lebanese are free to choose the president they want and that the
United States will also be “free” in deciding whether to support him or not, the
parliamentary sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper.
Who’s in the Frame to Be Lebanon’s Next President?
Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
Lebanon's parliament will attempt to elect a new head of state on Thursday, with
officials seeing better odds of success in a political landscape shaken by
Israel's assault on Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's ally Bashar
al-Assad in Syria. The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the sectarian
power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October
2022. While there are always many Maronite hopefuls, including the leaders of
the two largest Christian parties - Samir Geagea and Gebran Bassil - sources say
the focus is currently on the following three names:
JOSEPH AOUN
General Joseph Aoun, 60, has been commander of the US-backed Lebanese army since
2017, leading the military through a devastating financial crisis that paralyzed
much of the Lebanese state after the banking system collapsed in 2019. On Aoun's
watch, US aid continued to flow to the army, part of a US policy focused on
supporting state institutions to curb the influence of the heavily armed,
Iran-backed Hezbollah, which Washington deems a terrorist group. Shortly after
his appointment, the army waged an offensive to clear ISIS militants from an
enclave at the Syrian border, drawing praise from the US ambassador at the time
who said the military had done an "excellent job".His training has included two
infantry officer courses in the United States. Lebanese politicians have said
Aoun's candidacy enjoys US approval. A State Department spokesperson said it was
"up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any
external actor". Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa has said last week there was "no
veto" on Aoun. But sources familiar with Hezbollah thinking say it will not
support Aoun. His candidacy has also been opposed by Lebanon's two largest
Christian parties - the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement. Three
other former army chiefs - Emile Lahoud, Michel Suleiman and Michel Aoun - have
served as president. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri - a Hezbollah ally - has
said the constitution would need to be amended in order for Aoun to take the
post. It currently forbids a serving state official from becoming head of state.
JIHAD AZOUR
Azour, 58, served as finance minister in the Western-backed government of former
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora between 2005 and 2008, a period of intense
political conflict in Lebanon pitting factions backed by Iran and Syria against
others supported by the West.
Since 2017, he has served as Director of the Middle East and Central Asia
Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He holds a PhD in
International Finance and a post-graduate degree in International Economics and
Finance, both from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris. He first emerged
as a presidential candidate in 2023, when factions including both of the
Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement voted for him. He received 59
votes. Hezbollah and its closest allies voted for Suleiman Franjieh in that
session - the last time parliament attempted to elect a head of state. Franjieh
secured 51 votes. Hezbollah at the time described Azour as a confrontational
candidate - a reference to his role in the Siniora cabinet. Azour said at the
time that his candidacy was not intended as a challenge to anyone, but rather "a
call for unity, for breaking down alignments and for a search for common ground
in order to get out of the crisis".
ELIAS AL-BAYSARI
Major-General Elias Baysari, 60, has been interim head of the General Security
directorate since the term of his predecessor, Major General Abbas Ibrahim,
ended in 2023 with no consensus among Lebanese factions on who should replace
him. The security agency Baysari runs is Lebanon's most powerful internal
security force, running Lebanon's border crossings and domestic intelligence
operations. He was a little-known figure in Lebanese public life until his
promotion to the head of General Security. He holds a PhD in law from the
Lebanese University.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 08-09/2025
US Military Carries Out Airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthis
Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
The US military says it carried out a wave of strikes against what it said were
underground arms facilities of Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias. The US
Central Command said in a statement that Wednesday’s strikes targeted weapons
used by the Houthis to attack ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis said seven
strikes targeted sites in the Houthi-held capital, Sanaa, and the northern Amran
province, without providing further details. There were no immediate reports of
casualties. The United States and its allies have carried out repeated strikes
on the Houthis, who have continued to target shipping. The militias say they
target ships linked to Israel, the US or the UK to force an end to Israel’s war
against Hamas in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no
connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.
After US Exemption, UN Says More
Significant Syria Sanctions Work Needed
Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
A US sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria
is welcome, but "much more significant work ... will inevitably be necessary,"
the UN special envoy on Syria, Geir Pedersen, told the Security Council on
Wednesday. After 13 years of civil war, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad was
ousted in a lightening offensive by opposition forces led by the Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS) group a month ago. The US, Britain, the European Union and others
imposed tough sanctions on Syria after a crackdown by Assad on pro-democracy
protests in 2011 that spiraled into war. But the new reality in Syria has been
further complicated by sanctions on HTS - and some leaders - for its days as an
al-Qaeda affiliate. "I welcome the recent issuance of a new temporary General
License by the United States government. But much more significant work in fully
addressing sanctions and designations will inevitably be necessary," Pedersen
told the council. The US on Monday issued a sanctions exemption, known as a
general license, for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six
months in an effort to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance and allow some
energy transactions. "The United States welcomes positive messages from Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham, but will ultimately look for progress in actions, not words,"
deputy US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Camille Shea told the Security Council.
The foreign ministry in Damascus on Wednesday welcomed the US move and called
for a full lifting of restrictions to support Syria's recovery. French Foreign
Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said earlier on Wednesday that European Union
sanctions on Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the
country's recovery could be lifted swiftly. Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily
Nebenzia criticized the sanctions imposed on Syria by Washington and others,
adding: "As a result, the Syrian economy is under extreme pressure and is not
able to cope with the challenges facing the country." Russia was an Assad ally
throughout the war.
'END THE SUFFERING'
Formerly known as Nusra Front, HTS was al-Qaeda's official wing in Syria until
breaking ties in 2016. Along with unilateral measures, the group has also been
on the UN Security Council al-Qaeda and ISIS sanctions list for more than a
decade, subjected to a global assets freeze and arms embargo. There are no UN
sanctions on Syria over the civil war. Syria's UN Ambassador Koussay Aldahhak
was appointed a year ago by Assad's government but told the council on Wednesday
that he was speaking for the caretaker authorities. "It is high time to end the
suffering, to enable Syrians to live in security and prosperity, to live a
dignified life in their country, to build a better future for their country,"
Aldahhak said. "For this reason, we call upon the United Nations and its member
states to immediately and fully lift the unilateral coercive measures to provide
the necessary financing to meet humanitarian needs and recover basic services,"
he said. Pedersen said he is seeking to work with the caretaker authorities in
Syria "on how the nascent and important ideas and steps so far articulated and
initiated could be developed towards a credible and inclusive political
transition." Pedersen said attacks on Syria's sovereignty and territorial
integrity must stop, specifically calling out Israel. As Assad's government
crumbled towards the end of last year, Israel launched a series of strikes
against Syrian military infrastructure and weapons manufacturing sites to
prevent them falling into the hands of enemies. "Reports of the IDF using live
ammunition against civilians, displacement and destruction of civilian
infrastructure are also very worrying," Pedersen said. "Such violations, along
with Israeli airstrikes in other parts of Syria – reported even last week in
Aleppo – could further jeopardize the prospects for an orderly political
transition."
Syria’s Leader Meets with Bahraini
Diplomatic Delegation
Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa received a delegation from Bahrain on
Wednesday and met with the Bahraini foreign minister, state media reported. The
visit was the latest in a flurry of diplomatic overtures by Arab countries to
Syria’s new leaders after they overthrew former President Bashar al-Assad in a
lightning rebel offensive. Like other Gulf countries, Bahrain had cut off
diplomatic ties with Syria under Assad’s rule during the Syrian civil war, but
it reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2018 and gradually restored ties with the
Assad government. Bahrain is the current head of the Arab summit, and days after
Assad’s ouster it had sent a message to al-Sharaa offering its cooperation with
the new authorities and saying, “We look forward to Syria regaining its
authentic role in the Arab League.”
Syria to Receive
Electricity-generating Ships from Qatar, Türkiye
Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
Syria will receive two electricity-generating ships from Türkiye and Qatar to
boost energy supplies hit by damage to infrastructure during President Bashar
al-Assad's rule, state news agency SANA quoted an official as saying on Tuesday.
Khaled Abu Dai, director general of the General Establishment for Electricity
Transmission and Distribution, told SANA the ships would provide a total of 800
megawatts of electricity but did not say over what period. "The extent of damage
to the generation and transformation stations and electrical connection lines
during the period of the former regime is very large, we are seeking to
rehabilitate (them) in order to transmit energy,” Abu Dai said. According to
Reuters, he did not say when Syria would receive the two ships. The United
States on Monday issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with governing
institutions in Syria for six months after the end of Assad's rule to try to
increase the flow of humanitarian assistance. The exemption allows some energy
transactions and personal remittances to Syria until July 7. The action did not
remove any sanctions. Syria suffers from severe power shortages, with
state-supplied electricity available just two or three hours a day in most
areas. The caretaker government says it aims within two months to provide
electricity up to eight hours a day.
Israel to conceal soldiers’
identities after Brazilian probe into war crimes allegations
Lauren Izso and Hira Humayun,
CNN/January 8, 2025
Israel’s military has announced new media engagement rules for its members after
a Brazilian court ordered an investigation into war crime allegations against a
soldier visiting the country.
The guidelines, announced Wednesday, require the names and faces of most of its
soldiers – both active duty and reserve – to be obscured. The decision comes
after a former Israeli soldier fled Brazil last week after a court in the South
American country ordered an investigation into allegations by a pro-Palestinian
NGO that the soldier was involved in war crimes in Gaza. The soldier arrived
back in Israel on Wednesday, according to CNN affiliate Kan. The Israeli outlet
published an audio interview with him in which he said he had been accused of
murdering “thousands of children” in a 500-page document that contained a
picture of him in uniform. Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani
referenced the case in a briefing on the measures, which he said were to make
sure Israeli personnel were “safe from these types of incidents” involving
“anti-Israel activists around the world.”Those at the rank of colonel and below
can be filmed only from behind, with their face obscured, and only the first
initial of their name can be used, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
Military personnel with foreign citizenships – in combat and non-combat roles –
need to have their faces obscured and cannot disclose their full names in
interviews. The new protocols apply to all combat zones, and soldiers being
interviewed cannot be linked to a specific combat operation, the IDF said. A
former senior officer in Israel’s Judge Advocate General’s department told CNN
last week that there was a growing number of attempts overseas to bring charges
against Israelis who had served in the war, but none had resulted in arrest or
trial so far. He said activists were now going after ordinary soldiers, not just
high-ranking officers and politicians.
‘Something unusual’
The new rules were announced shortly after CNN affiliate Kan aired a radio
interview with the soldier who fled Brazil, in which he recounted the moment he
first learned of the accusations against him. “I got up in the morning, opened
the phone and suddenly saw eight calls – the ministry of foreign affairs, my
brothers, my mother, consuls,” he said in the interview, adding that it was
during the call with the ministry that “we began to understand that there was a
situation and something unusual.” “They wrote that I murdered thousands of
children and turned it into a 500-page document,” the soldier said of the case
against him. “All that was there was a picture of me in uniform in Gaza.”He also
said that following the attention his case had gained he now hoped to “get off
the radar and continue my life.”The case against him followed a complaint
brought by the Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF) – a group that has tracked the
activities of Israeli soldiers serving in Gaza and has brought a series of other
lawsuits. A Brazilian judge then ordered police to investigate the soldier based
on HRF’s complaint, which accused him of taking part in “demolitions of civilian
homes in Gaza during a systematic campaign of destruction.”The group, named
after a five-year-old girl killed by Israeli tank fire in Gaza last year, is a
pro-Palestinian NGO that says it is dedicated “to breaking the cycle of Israeli
impunity and honoring the memory of Hind Rajab and all those who have perished
in the Gaza genocide.”The case prompted a public outcry, from opposition leaders
like Yair Lapid – who called it a result of “monumental political failure” of
the government – to Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar – who called the case part of
a “systematic and anti-Semitic campaign aimed at denying Israel’s right to
self-defense.”A group of Israeli soldiers’ mothers wrote to Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli’s military leadership saying they would hold them
to account for any legal risks their children faced from “malicious actors
worldwide.”HRF has also sought the apprehension of Israeli soldiers visiting
Thailand, Sri Lanka, Chile and other countries, according to its website.
Israel’s military
releases interrogation video in bid to defend assault on Gaza hospitals
Mick Krever, CNN/January 08, 2025
The Israeli military, in an effort to defend its devastating assaults on Gaza’s
hospitals, this week released an edited interrogation video that it said
bolstered its case that Hamas uses medical facilities as cover for military
activity. In the footage, a man who is said to be a staff member of Kamal Adwan
Hospital in northern Gaza, says he joined Hamas’ military wing in 2021, and that
the organization and its ally, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, base themselves at
hospitals because they believe the Israeli military will not target them there.
Speaking while in Israeli detention, the man appears to be under direct or
implied duress. The Geneva Conventions, a set of treaties that set humanitarian
rules for war, protecting civilians and soldiers, say that images of prisoners
of war (POW) should not be exposed to “public curiosity.” The International
Committee of the Red Cross says that that extends to videotaped interrogations:
“Even if POWs appear to make voluntary public statements or willingly
participate in the recording of images, disclosure to the public remains
unlawful,” because “their wellbeing depends entirely on an enemy
power.”Physicians for Human Rights Israel (PHRI), which has visited some of the
more than 130 Gazan medical professionals in Israeli detention, says those
detained have routinely been subjected to torture – something the Israeli
government denies. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have repeatedly targeted Gaza
hospitals with armed drones and ground raids, alleging that Hamas uses the
facilities as “command and control” centers. The military has regularly released
interrogation videos with healthcare personnel detained in those raids as well
as photos of small arms allegedly found at hospitals, and videos of militants
operating in the vicinity of hospitals – but it has not presented conclusive
evidence about a single command center located within a hospital complex.
Following an Israeli raid last month, northern Gaza’s last functioning hospital
– Kamal Adwan – was forced out of operation. The military claimed that it
captured 240 “Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists.”Among those detained was the
head of the hospital, Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya, whom Israeli authorities suspect of
being “a Hamas terrorist operative” – an accusation for which Israeli
authorities have provided no evidence. Dr. Abu Safiya was briefly detained at
the end of October but released several hours later. He now remains in Israeli
detention and has been denied access to a lawyer, according to PHRI. His mother
died of a heart attack this week, his family said in a statement on
Tuesday.“Israel has arrested hundreds of medical professionals,” Guy Shalev, the
head of PHRI, told Al Jazeera last month. “They are still holding 130 medical
professionals. We visited almost 30 of them. And they testify (about) torture,
they don’t get the food and nutrition they need. They don’t get the clothes they
need, mattresses to lie on. There is direct violence by prison guards. This is
the day-to-day experience of prisoners in Israeli incarceration facilities.”
Doctors released from Israeli custody have alleged that they were tortured. CNN
has previously reported on the grave conditions in detention. The Israeli
military has previously denied any allegations of torture in its custody but has
said that any prisoner had the right to file an appeal: “The IDF ensures proper
conduct towards the detainees in custody. Any allegation of misconduct by IDF
soldiers is examined and dealt with accordingly.” The US State Department says
it agrees with Israel’s assessment about Hamas using hospitals as “command and
control” centers. Israel’s most forceful accusation came early in the war, when
it said that there was a bunker facility under Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital.
When CNN was taken to the facility under IDF escort, journalists were shown a
shaft at the hospital complex, but no evidence to suggest that there was a
command-and-control facility. This is not the first time the Israeli government
has released a video with an interrogation of a Kamal Adwan staff member. In
December 2023, Israel’s Internal Security Agency, known as Shin Bet, released an
interrogation video of Ahmed Al-Kahlot, then the director of the hospital. He
said that the Hamas political leadership used the hospital in the early days of
the war because they felt they would not be targeted there. Dr. Al Kahlot, who
was arrested in December 2023, remains in Israeli detention. Early in the war,
the Israeli military released videos that it said showed Hamas’ presence at Al-Shifa
hospital, presenting security camera footage that appeared to show hostages
being brought through the hospital. CNN could not independently verify the
content of the videos. The IDF has also regularly released videos of, and shown
journalists, caches of small arms allegedly found at hospitals, though CNN
analysis has shown that some of those weapons may have been moved or placed
there prior to journalists’ visits.
Israeli strikes kills 19 in southern Gaza, health officials say
David Gritten - BBC News/January
08/2025
At least 19 Palestinians, including eight children, were killed in Israeli air
strikes in southern Gaza overnight, local health officials say. A mother and her
four children were reportedly killed when a tent camp for displaced people in
al-Mawasi was hit, while another a couple and their children died in the nearby
city of Khan Younis. The Israeli military said it conducted several strikes
targeting Hamas fighters who took part in the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel,
which triggered the war in Gaza. Deadly strikes were also reported in central
and northern Gaza, with the Hamas-run health ministry saying a total of 51
people had been killed across the territory in the past 24 hours.Hamas lists 34
hostages it may free under ceasefire. In the north, the bodies of at least six
people, including a baby, were recovered from two houses in Gaza City which were
hit, according to the Hamas-run Civil Defence agency. Meanwhile, three people
were killed in a strike in the central town of Deir al-Balah, while another
infant was killed in the nearby, urban Bureij refugee camp, medics said. There
was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on those strikes. Gaza's
health ministry also issued an urgent appeal for fuel to operate the generators
of hospitals in the south. It warned that the generators would stop functioning
within hours, putting the lives of hundreds of patients at risk. It came as
indirect talks on a ceasefire and hostage release deal continued in Qatar, where
US President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy said "a lot of progress" had
been made. Stephen Witkoff told a news conference in Floriday on Tuesday that he
would soon travel to Doha to join the negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egyptian
and US officials. "I'm really hopeful that by the inaugural, we'll have some
good things to announce on behalf of the president," he added. Trump meanwhile
repeated his threat that "all hell will break out in the Middle East" if Hamas
does not release the 100 hostages it is still holding before he takes office on
20 January. Hamas and Israel have accused each other of obstructing progress
towards a deal. Israel launched a campaign to destroy Hamas in response to the
group's 7 October 2023 attack, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251
others were taken hostage. More than 45,930 people have been killed in Gaza
since then, according to the territory's health ministry.
Israeli military recovers body
of a hostage in Gaza and is examining the identity of a second body
TIA GOLDENBERG/JERUSALEM (AP) /January 8, 2025
The Israeli military said Wednesday that troops have recovered the body of a
hostage held in Gaza and were examining whether another body recovered was also
that of a captive. Earlier, Israel's defense minister said that troops recovered
the bodies of two hostages. The military said the body of Yosef Al Zaydani was
brought to Israel on Tuesday after being discovered in an underground tunnel
near the southern Gaza city of Rafah. It said troops uncovered information about
Al Zaydani's son Hamzah that “raised serious concerns for his life." Military
spokesman Col. Nadav Shoshani said the military was looking into the identity of
a second set of remains recovered. Al Zaydani and his son were taken captive
during Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, among 250 hostages snatched by the
militant group during its cross-border raid. Israel believes a third of the
remaining 100 hostages are dead. The body's recovery comes as Israel and Hamas
are considering a ceasefire deal that would free the hostages and halt the
fighting in Gaza. However, Yosef and Hamzah Al Zaydani were believed to still be
alive and their return could ramp up the pressure on Israel to move ahead on a
deal. Yosef Al Zaydani's name was on a list of 34 hostages shared by a Hamas
official with The Associated Press that the group said were slated for release.
Many families of hostages say the continuation of the war in Gaza puts the lives
of the remaining hostages at risk. They have demanded throughout the conflict
that Israel reaches a deal with Hamas to free their loved ones.
Three Palestinians, including
two children, killed in West Bank, according to WAFA
Reuters/January 8, 2025
Three Palestinians, including two children, were killed on Wednesday in the
Israeli-occupied West Bank, Palestinian news agency WAFA said, as Israeli
strikes persisted following Monday's killing of three Israelis in the territory.
The Israeli military said its air force "struck a terrorist cell in the area of
Tamun", a town northeast of Nablus city. It told Reuters it was looking into
reports children had been killed in the strike and would respond shortly. WAFA
said two boys, aged nine and ten, were killed by a drone strike which also
killed a 23-year-old man. There was no immediate confirmation from the
Palestinian Health Ministry. Violence in the West Bank has intensified in
parallel with 15 months of war between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas in
Gaza, with killings by Palestinian militants, increased Israeli military raids
and a rise in revenge attacks by Jewish settlers. Hundreds of Palestinians and
dozens of Israelis have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza
conflict. The attack on Monday that killed three Israelis occurred near the
Jewish settlement of Kedumim, home of Israel's hard-right Finance Minister
Bezalel Smotrich. Hamas praised the incident but did not claim
responsibility.The escalating West Bank bloodshed comes amidst another push by
international mediators to seal a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal in Gaza
before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. WAFA said that
in addition to drones, Israel's military deployed snipers in Tamun and besieged
and raided homes. It also raided the city of Tubas and town of Aqaba, in the
northeastern West Bank. The West Bank has been occupied since it was captured by
Israel in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Palestinians want it to be part of a future
independent state, but expanding Jewish settlements and the ongoing Gaza war and
have prompted fears Israel's hard right government plans to formally annex the
territory.
The remains of at least 1
Israeli hostage are found in Gaza, army says
Tia Goldenberg And Melanie Lidman/The Associated Press/January 8, 2025
Israeli soldiers recovered the body of a 53-year-old hostage in an underground
tunnel in southern Gaza, the military said Wednesday, and the army was
determining if another set of remains belongs to the man's son.The discovery of
Yosef AlZayadni's body comes as Israel and Hamas are considering a ceasefire
deal that would free the remaining hostages in Gaza and could halt the fighting.
Israel has declared about a third of the 100 hostages dead, but believes as many
as half could be. Yosef and his son Hamzah AlZayadni were thought to still be
alive before Wednesday’s announcement, and news about their fate could ramp up
pressure on Israel to move forward with a deal. The military said it found
evidence in the tunnel that raised “serious concerns” for the life of Hamzah
AlZayadni, 23, suggesting he may have died in captivity. Yosef AlZayadni and
three of his kids were among 250 hostages taken captive after Hamas-led
militants stormed out of Gaza into southern Israel, killing 1,200 people.
AlZayadni, who had 19 children, worked at the dairy farm at southern Israel’s
Kibbutz Holit for 17 years, said the Hostages Families Forum, a group
representing the relatives of captives. AlZayadni's teenage children, Bilal and
Aisha, were released along with most of the hostages in a weeklong ceasefire
deal in November 2023. The family are members of the Bedouin community, part of
Israel’s Palestinian minority who have Israeli citizenship. The traditionally
nomadic community is particularly impoverished in Israel and has suffered from
neglect and marginalization. Palestinians make up some 20% of Israel’s 10
million population, and millions more live in Gaza and under Israeli military
occupation in the West Bank. Eight members of Israel’s Bedouin minority were
abducted in the October 2023 attacks. Yosef AlZayadni appeared on a list of 34
hostages shared by a Hamas official with The Associated Press earlier this week
who the militant group said were slated for release. Israel said this was a list
it had submitted to mediators last July, and that it has received nothing from
Hamas. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that a ceasefire
and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas is “very close” and he hopes “we can
get it over the line” before handing over U.S. diplomacy to President-elect
Donald Trump’s administration later this month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu expressed sorrow at the news of AlZayadni's death, and said in a
statement he had “hoped and worked to bring back the four members of the family
from Hamas captivity.” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz earlier said the
bodies of both Yosef and Hamzah AlZayadni had been recovered, but the military
said the identity of some remains were not yet determined. The Hostages Families
Forum said the ceasefire deal being negotiated “comes far too late for Yosef -
who was taken alive and should have returned the same way.”
“Every day in captivity poses an immediate mortal danger to the hostages,” the
group said in a statement. Many of the families fear their loved ones' fate is
at risk as long as the war in Gaza rages on. Israeli forces are pressing their
air and ground war against Hamas, and on Wednesday, Palestinian medics said
Israeli airstrikes killed at least five people in the Gaza Strip, including two
infants and a woman. An Associated Press journalist saw four of the bodies in
the morgue at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, among them a 4-month-old boy. Israel’s
military says it only targets militants, accusing them of hiding among
civilians.
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has since killed over 45,800 Palestinians,
according to the territory's Health Ministry. It does not say how many were
fighters, but says women and children make up over half the fatalities. The
military says it has killed over 17,000 militants, without providing evidence.
Israel has destroyed vast areas of the impoverished territory and displaced some
90% of its population of 2.3 million, often multiple times. The fighting has
also spilled over into the broader Middle East, including a war between Israel
and Hezbollah now contained by a fragile ceasefire, and direct conflict between
Israel and Iran. Iran-backed rebels in Yemen have targeted shipping in the Red
Sea for more than a year and recently ramped up missile attacks on Israel,
saying they seek to force an end to the war in Gaza. And on Wednesday, the U.S.
military said it carried out a wave of strikes against underground arms
facilities of the Houthi rebels.
Why Is "Or There Will be All Hell to Pay" Not the Entire
Negotiation?
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/January 08/2025
President-elect Donald J. Trump has warned that unless the hostages being held
by Hamas are released by January 20, the day of his inauguration, "all hell will
break out." Why is Trump's statement, "there will be all hell to pay," not, by
itself, the negotiation? Why is the US degrading its prestige by even trying to
negotiate with terrorists? Pictured: Trump speaks, against a backdrop of
pictures victims of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, in Doral,
Florida on October 7, 2024. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
President-elect Donald J. Trump has warned that unless the hostages being held
by Hamas are released by January 20, the day of his inauguration, "all hell will
break out."Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is already in Doha, Qatar,
negotiating. Not very astonishingly, the negotiations keep breaking down....The
question arises: why is Witkoff in Qatar negotiating? Negotiating for what? How
many dead hostages for how many live Palestinian terrorists now in Israeli
prisons? Why is Trump's statement, "there will be all hell to pay," not, by
itself, the negotiation? It seems that all Witkoff would need to do is detail
every name, alive or dead; the date, time and drop-off point for all the
hostages, and then go home. No Palestinian prisoners released to resume a career
in terrorism; no pallets of cash going to government leaders who commit war
crimes -- just, "You took them, you have them; if even one hostage is missing or
has so much as a scratch, 'it will not be good for Hamas.'"Why is the US
degrading its prestige by even trying to negotiate with terrorists? Instead of
negotiating, Hamas and its patron, Qatar, should be feeding the hostages,
attending to their medical needs and preparing them to come home. Now, how would
that be for "The Art of the Deal"?
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
© 2025 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
In Verified Footage, New Syrian Justice Minister Presided
Over Woman’s 2015 Execution
David Adesnik/Policy Brief/FDD/January 08/2025
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/01/07/in-verified-footage-new-syrian-justice-minister-presided-over-womans-2015-execution/
The woman kneels on the pavement, waiting for a bullet to the back of her head.
She has been convicted of “corruption and prostitution.” Standing behind her is
Shadi al-Waisi, who currently serves as minister of justice in the Syrian
interim government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, known until last month by his nom de
guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. The footage is from January 2015, when Jolani
was serving as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda branch in Syria. At
the time, Nusra ruled an enclave in northwest Syria, where Waisi served in a
series of positions in the courts. In 2017, Nusra rebranded itself as Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Since toppling the Bashar al-Assad regime last month, Jolani has sought to
portray himself as a moderate and called for removing HTS from the U.S. and UN
terrorism blacklists, as well as lifting Western sanctions on Syria. The
execution footage thus confronts Jolani with a dilemma: Does he oust Waisi to
demonstrate that summary executions on religious grounds are now anathema? Or
does he stand by a lieutenant who remained loyal during the lean years of the
war against Assad?
Syrian Researchers Verify Footage, Damascus Government Concurs
Arabic language networks originally broadcast the execution footage in January
2015. After it began recirculating on social media over the past few days,
Verify-Sy, a Syrian fact-checking organization, announced its confirmation that
Waisi is the man in the video. It said it had used “technical tools” to match
Waisi’s voice and facial features with those of the presiding official.
The organization did not reach a final conclusion regarding a second execution
video, also originally from January 2015, in which a man resembling Waisi
appears to preside over a woman’s shooting. When Verify-Sy reached out to the
government for commentary on the video, an unnamed official acknowledged that
the footage showed Waisi, while adding that the executions “were carried out in
accordance with the laws in effect at that time” but not at the present time.
Justice Minister Claims ‘90 Percent’ of Syrians Want Sharia Enshrined in
National Law
In an interview with the Emirati network Alaan on January 1, shortly after
Assad’s overthrow, Waisi was asked about his public statement that “We pray that
Allah helps us implement the sharia.” The network’s reporter noted concerns that
this could mean forcing Christians to pay the religious tax known as jizya.
Waisi responded that 90 percent of Syrians are Muslim, and the new parliament
will implement their wishes, “Therefore, implementing the sharia will play a
major role in coming days.” He added, “The state will not impose anything on the
people.”
There are no precise estimates of how many Syrians subscribe to particular
faiths. The Christian population may be roughly 10 percent, but the remainder
includes the Kurdish, Druze, and Alawite communities, which do not subscribe to
HTS’s harsh version of Sunni Islam. Syria also has many vocal advocates of
secular or “civic” government, although there is no reliable estimate of their
numbers either.
For Western Policy, Patience and Caution Are in Order
To prevent the emergence of an Islamist dictatorship, the United States and its
allies should proceed cautiously as they engage with the Damascus government and
review the applicability of sanctions. While Jolani and HTS have feuded with
al-Qaeda, they never repudiated what it stands for. In addition, the HTS
coalition that overthrew Assad includes multiple organizations with close ties
to al-Qaeda and others that are on the U.S. terror blacklist. It is incumbent on
the new government to demonstrate that it will neither become a terrorist
sanctuary nor deprive Syrians of the opportunity to choose their own form of
government after the fall of Assad.
**David Adesnik is vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from David, subscribe HERE. Follow David on
X @adesnik. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan
research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
U.S. continues to target the Islamic State in Iraq and
Syria
Bill Roggio/FDD's Long War Journal/January 08/2025
The US launched a series of strikes against the Islamic State’s (IS) network in
Iraq and Syria over the past week. The operations are part of the US military’s
continuing effort to degrade the Islamic State and prevent it from filling the
security vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime. US Central Command (CENTCOM)
announced the raids, which took place between December 30, 2024, and January 6,
2025, in a press release. In Iraq, US and “partner forces,” presumably the Iraqi
military, battled the Islamic State for eight days in the Hamrin Mountains, a
mountain ridge in northern Iraq that extends from Diyala to Salahaddin Province.
US and allied forces targeted “known ISIS [Islamic State] locations” in the
region. The Islamic State and its predecessor in Iraq, Al Qaeda in Iraq, have
used the Hamrin Mountains as a safe haven and established training camps there
over the past two decades.
CENTCOM deployed various strike aircraft, including “F-16s, F-15s, and A-10s,”
as Islamic State fighters routinely engaged the coalition forces—likely ground
troops, though CENTCOM did not specify these details.
“One Coalition member was killed and two were wounded from two different
nations,” but no American personnel were killed or wounded during the operation,
CENTCOM noted. An undisclosed number of Islamic State fighters were killed
during A-10 strikes on a cave where the terrorists holed up.
In Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by CENTCOM forces, captured
“an ISIS attack cell leader” during a two-day operation near Deir el Zour, a
city on the Euphrates River in the eastern part of the country.
CENTCOM last struck the Islamic State in Deir el Zour Province on December 23,
2024, when it killed two Islamic State fighters and wounded another as they were
“moving a truckload of weapons […] in an area formerly controlled by the Syrian
regime and Russians.” Four days prior, US assets killed two Islamic State
operatives in a “precision airstrike” in Deir el Zour, including Abu Yusif aka
Mahmud, who was described as a leader of the group. CENTCOM has stepped up
strikes against the Islamic State to prevent it from reemerging in the wake of
the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad’s regime on December 7, 2024. The
day after Assad fled the country, CENTCOM “struck over 75 [Islamic State]
targets using multiple US Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s.”
Nine days later, US assets targeted numerous “known ISIS camps and operatives in
Syria.” The strikes were intended to “disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS,
preventing the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure
that ISIS does not seek opportunities to reconstitute in central Syria,” CENTCOM
stated.
Iran slams Macron's ‘deceitful’ remarks on its role as a
regional security threat
NEWS WIRES/FRANCE 24 English/January 8, 2025
Iran' foreign ministry on Wednesday rejected French President Emmanuel Macron's
claim that Iran posed the main security threat in the Middle East. Macron on
Monday said Iran was accelerating its nuclear programme, which the West suspects
is aimed at making a nuclear bomb. Iran on Wednesday rejected as “baseless”
French President Emmanuel Macron’s claim that Tehran was the main strategic and
security challenge in the Middle East. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei
described the comments as “baseless, contradictory, and speculative,” and called
for France “to reconsider its non-constructive approaches to peace and
stability”. Macron had said in a speech Monday that Iran is the “main strategic
and security challenge for France, Europeans, the entire region and beyond”. He
added that Iran would be a key topic of discussion with US President-elect
Donald Trump’s administration, which will take office on January 20. The French
president also said the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear programme, which the West
suspects is aimed at making a nuclear bomb, is “bringing us very close to the
breaking point”. That level is well on the way to the 90 percent required for an
atomic bomb.
An Italian journalist is freed from detention in Iran
and returns home
Nicole Winfield/ROME (AP) /January 08/2025
An Italian journalist detained in Iran for three weeks was freed Wednesday and
returned home, after her fate had become intertwined with that of an Iranian
engineer arrested in Italy and wanted by the United States. A plane carrying
Cecilia Sala, 29, landed at Rome’s Ciampino airport, where Premier Giorgia
Meloni was on hand to welcome her alongside Sala’s family members. Sala
descended from the plane and ran to embrace her boyfriend, Daniele Raineri, who
later posted a photo of a smiling Sala greeting Meloni in the airport on social
media. Sala’s liberation marked a major diplomatic and political victory for
Meloni, whose recent visit to President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago
retreat greatly enhanced her stature internationally at a time when Italy was
negotiating Sala’s release. In announcing that Sala was flying home, Meloni’s
office said the premier had personally informed Sala’s parents and credited the
release to the government’s “intensive work on diplomatic and intelligence
channels.”Iranian media acknowledged the journalist’s release, citing only the
foreign reports. Iranian officials offered no immediate comment. Sala, a
reporter for the Il Foglio daily, was detained in Tehran on Dec. 19, a week
after she arrived on a journalist visa. She was accused of violating the laws of
the Islamic Republic, the official IRNA news agency said. Italian commentators
had speculated that Iran detained and held Sala as a bargaining chip to ensure
the release in Italy of Mohammad Abedini, who was arrested by Italian
authorities at Milan’s Malpensa airport three days before, on Dec. 16, on a U.S.
warrant. The U.S. Justice Department has accused Abedini and another Iranian of
supplying the drone technology to Iran that was used in a January 2024 attack on
a U.S. outpost in Jordan that killed three American troops. Abedini remains in
detention in Italy but has asked a Milan court to grant him house arrest pending
an extradition hearing. Sala’s release was met with cheers in Italy, where her
plight had dominated headlines. Lawmakers from across the political spectrum
praised the outcome, with the opposition Democratic leader Elly Schlein thanking
the government specifically. It came after Meloni made a surprise trip to
Florida last weekend to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Meloni in a
statement on X thanked “all those who helped make Cecilia’s return possible,
allowing her to re-embrace her family and colleagues.”
Meloni’s visit to Trump had a strong impact on the premier’s international
standing, which strengthened Italy’s hand in negotiations, Defense Minister
Guido Crosetto said. “Any time you can reinforce the credibility of a leader of
a country at a particular moment, the stronger the country is,” he told Italy’s
Sky Tg24. Sala’s fate had become intertwined with that of Abedini. Each
country’s foreign ministry summoned the other’s ambassador to demand the
prisoner’s release and decent detention conditions. The diplomatic tangle was
particularly complicated for Italy, which is a historic ally of Washington but
maintains good relations with Tehran. Members of Meloni’s cabinet took personal
interest in the case given the geopolitical implications. Foreign Minister
Antonio Tanaji and Crosetto hailed the diplomatic teamwork involved to secure
Sala’s release.
But the release also posed a delicate political question for Italy given
Abedini’s status. The United States has complained in the past when Italy has
lost track of suspects in the Italian judicial system awaiting hearings for
extradition to the U.S.
A hearing on his bid to be given house arrest is scheduled for Jan. 15. Advocacy
group Reporters Without Borders, which had flagged Sala’s detention as an attack
on press freedom, cheered her release. “Now the 25 journalists still held in
Iranian prisons must also be released,” the group said in a social media post.
Since the 1979 U.S. Embassy crisis, which saw dozens of hostages released after
444 days in captivity, Iran has used prisoners with Western ties as bargaining
chips in negotiations. In September 2023, five Americans detained for years in
Iran were freed in exchange for five Iranians in U.S. custody and for $6 billion
in frozen Iranian assets to be released by South Korea. Western journalists have
been held in the past. Roxana Saberi, an American journalist, was detained by
Iran in 2009 for around 100 days before being released. Also detained by Iran
was Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, who was held for more than 540
days before being released in 2016 in a prisoner swap between Iran and the U.S.
Both cases involved Iran making false espionage accusations in closed-door
hearings.
Ukraine claims it struck a key military fuel depot deep
inside Russia
Illia Novikov/KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/January 8, 2025
The Ukrainian military said Wednesday that it struck a fuel storage depot deep
inside Russia, causing a huge blaze at the facility that supplies an important
Russian air base. Russian officials acknowledged a major drone attack in the
area, and said that authorities had set up an emergency command center to fight
the fire. Ukraine’s General Staff said that the assault hit the storage facility
near Engels, in Russia’s Saratov region, about 600 kilometers (370 miles) east
of the Ukrainian border. The depot supplied a nearby airfield used by aircraft
that launch missiles across the border into Ukraine, a statement on Facebook
said. Ukraine has been developing its arsenal of domestically produced
long-range missiles and drones capable of reaching deep behind the front line as
it faces restrictions on the range that its military can fire its
Western-supplied missiles into Russia. The attacks have disrupted Russian
logistics in the almost three-year war, which began on Feb. 24, 2022, and
embarrassed the Kremlin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last year
that his country has developed a weapon that could hit a target 700 kilometers
(400 miles) away. Some Ukrainian drone attacks have hit targets more than 1,000
kilometers (600 miles) away. The governor of the Saratov region, Roman Busargin,
said that an unspecified industrial plant in Engels sustained damage from the
falling drone debris that sparked a fire, but nobody was hurt. Engels, which has
a population of more than 220,000, is located on the left bank of the Volga
River, and is home to multiple industrial plants. Saratov, a major industrial
city of about 900,000, faces Engels across the river. “The damage to the oil
base creates serious logistical problems for the strategic aviation of the
Russian occupiers and significantly reduces their ability to strike peaceful
Ukrainian cities and civilian objects. To be continued,” the statement from
Ukraine’s General Staff said. Russian authorities restricted flights early
Wednesday at the airports of Saratov, Ulyanovsk, Kazan and Nizhnekamsk, in an
apparent response to the Ukrainian attack. The main base of Russia’s
nuclear-capable strategic bombers is located just outside Engels. It has come
under Ukrainian drone attacks since the early stages of the war, forcing the
Russian military to relocate most of the bombers to other areas.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on January 08-09/2025
Tehran’s triad:
propaganda, proxies, and preparedness
Janatan Sayeh/ FDD's Long War Journal/January 08/2025
The regime in Tehran finds itself increasingly besieged by challenges, ranging
from the faltering influence of its regional proxies to the prospect of an
Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, potentially bolstered by US support.
In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy:
bolstering morale through a reinvigorated propaganda campaign, conducting
extensive military drills to showcase readiness, and amplifying support for its
remaining proxies.
Propaganda as a tool of survival
Confronted with a cascade of regional setbacks epitomized by the diminishing
effectiveness of its proxies, Tehran’s leadership has descended into a state of
alarm. Ever mindful of its authoritarian imperative to project strength, the
regime appears more perturbed by the erosion of its narrative than by the threat
of direct military confrontation. Consequently, it has redoubled its domestic
propaganda efforts.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underscored the strategic importance of this
messaging, proclaiming that “the victory of one side is determined by its
ability to convey its narrative.” He urged state media operatives to adopt a
doctrine of “precision, persistence, and innovation.” In alignment with these
directives, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attributed Syria’s destabilization
to “psychological factors” and cautioned against allowing adversaries to “sow
instability and despair” through media platforms.
To fulfill Khamenei’s mandate, officials and state-controlled media outlets have
intensified their dissemination of anti-Israel rhetoric. For example, Araghchi
warned of an unprecedented escalation in conflict should Israel target Iranian
assets. Meanwhile, an IRGC spokesperson declared that “Israeli airspace is wide
open and defenseless” against Iranian attacks. The regime’s social media
accounts added to these threats by circulating ominous messages alluding to a
potential third round of the “True Promise” operation, referencing the ballistic
missile attacks Iran launched against Israel in April and October 2024.
Military maneuvers: a show of force
To display its military preparedness, the regime has conducted a series of
large-scale drills involving both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
and the conventional army, Artesh. Key participants included the Artesh 41st
Mobile Assault Brigade, the 35th Special Forces Brigade, and the IRGC Ground
Forces’ “Mirza Kuchak Khan” Brigade, named after a Soviet-backed guerrilla
fighter who operated in northern Iran during World War I. These exercises seemed
aimed at countering threats in Syria and Iraq, particularly the Ankara-backed
Hayat Tahrir al Sham in Syria and Kurdish separatist groups in western Iran and
Iraqi Kurdistan.
Simultaneously, the Khatam al Anbia Joint Air Defense Headquarters coordinated
extensive air drills, signaling Tehran’s anticipation of a potential Israeli
airstrike on its nuclear sites. The exercises featured IRGC Aerospace
Force-manufactured defense systems, including the Tabas, Raad, 3 Khordad, 9 Dey,
and Dezful, which practiced intercepting bunker-buster bombs near the Natanz
nuclear facility—a well-known hub of Iran’s suspected nuclear weaponization
efforts.
Escalation of proxy support
Tehran has also escalated its backing of its two most resilient proxies: Iraqi
Shia militias and Yemen’s Houthis. IRGC Quds Force commanders have actively
engaged with the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, discussing plans to
“restructure” their command hierarchy and refine their operational objectives.
Similarly, Houthi officials revealed that Iran has supplied them with resources
sufficient to sustain their strikes on Israel and attacks on global shipping
routes for years.
Such actions are likely to provoke a decisive response from Washington. The
impending return of the administration of US President Donald Trump, which
originally designated the Houthis as a terrorist organization, portends a more
aggressive stance against Iran’s proxies. Trump-era policies already included
airstrikes on Houthi targets, and prominent Iraqi Shia figures aligned with
Tehran are reportedly concerned about renewed US pressure on Baghdad to
dismantle these militias. The lingering specter of Trump’s 2020 drone strike
that killed IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and his Iraqi ally, Abu
Mahdi al Muhandis, further amplifies these fears.
The Israeli-American nexus against Iran’s nuclear ambitions
The prospect of a Trump administration returning to power bodes ill for Iran’s
nuclear ambitions. Tehran’s escalating nuclear threat continues to alarm US
lawmakers, and Trump previously entertained the possibility of airstrikes to
dismantle its nuclear program. Unlike President Joe Biden’s reluctance to strike
Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump’s rhetoric suggests a strong alignment with Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the shared imperative of countering the
progress of Iran’s program.
*Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s
regional malign influence.
Trump’s year of opportunity against Iran
Janatan Sayeh & Saeed Ghasseminejad/Washington Examiner/January 08/2025
What began as a year of resilience for Iran ended with the tide unmistakably
turned against the Islamic Republic. Its Axis of Resistance is shattered, its
currency is in freefall, its major cities face crippling power outages and
natural gas shortages, and the shadow of maximum pressure looms large over the
regime.
For the Trump administration, this moment presents an unprecedented opportunity
to nudge a regime that has long obstructed Washington‘s plans in West Asia
closer to the brink of collapse.
With its proxies thriving across the region at the outset of 2024, Tehran
appeared poised at the height of its power and influence. Hamas, its Gazan
proxy, had executed one of the deadliest terrorist plots of the century,
invading Israel, killing over 1,000, and abducting hundreds. Elsewhere, Iran’s
allies had secured dominance over their domestic rivals in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq,
and Syria and were attacking Israel on multiple fronts. No longer.Today, Bashar
Assad’s regime in Syria has collapsed, Hamas and Hezbollah have lost critical
capabilities and leadership, the Yemeni Houthis are weakened, and Shia militias
in Iraq are under scrutiny. Gutting previous assumptions about the regime’s
resilience, Israeli military and intelligence operations have exposed Tehran’s
profound vulnerabilities.
Domestically, the Iranian regime is grappling with a collapsing rial, widespread
power outages, and significant natural gas shortages. All this despite
possessing the world’s second-largest reserves. One U.S. dollar, worth 70 rials
before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, now trades at 820,000 rials. This
economic turmoil persists despite $450 billion in exports over four years aided
by lax sanctions enforcement under the Biden administration. Rampant corruption,
the prioritization of funding terrorism abroad, and gross mismanagement have
left Tehran in an increasingly precarious position. Public discontent is also at
an all-time high, with low voter turnout for elections and three nationwide
protests across 150 cities in the past few years. This provides the second Trump
administration a strategic advantage, provided it implements a robust “Maximum
Pressure 2.0” campaign from Day One. Unlike during its first term, when the
reimposition of sanctions was delayed for 18 months, the administration must
swiftly adopt a comprehensive strategy. This new campaign should center on five
pillars: economic, diplomatic, military, intelligence, and political measures.
The incoming administration must rigorously enforce existing measures while
expanding the sanctions against the regime. Iran’s economy depends on exports of
oil, petrochemicals, natural gas, and industrial metals. Despite the
restrictions remaining in effect on paper, their enforcement has been
inconsistent. The goal should be to reduce Tehran’s export revenues to a quarter
of their 2024 levels by the end of 2025.This demands a far more aggressive,
bold, and innovative approach to both designing and enforcing sanctions — one
that increases the cost of sanctions violations using all elements of national
power. It also requires expanding the scope of designation by systematically
targeting shareholders, board members, and major shareholders of previous and
future designated entities.
China, Tehran’s largest trade partner warrants particular attention.
Simultaneously, diplomatic and economic pressure on other key trading partners,
including Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Pakistan, India, and Germany,
should aim to restrict bilateral trade that sustains Iran’s economy.
The United States should push European countries to trigger the snapback
mechanism and work to return Iran’s nuclear dossier to the U.N. Security
Council. Diplomatic efforts should also focus on isolating Tehran regionally by
encouraging Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reverse rapprochement efforts and
strengthen ties with Israel. A critical component of Maximum Pressure 2.0 should
be cooperation with Israel to dismantle the Axis of Resistance and neutralize
Tehran’s nuclear threat. While the scope of Washington’s direct military
involvement should be case-specific, Israel has proven capable of executing
effective operations against the regime’s proxies and infrastructure if it
receives political and logistic support from the U.S.
Israel’s recent successes in infiltrating Tehran’s security and intelligence
apparatus should serve as a building block for deeper cooperation between the
U.S. and Israel in confronting a shared adversary through covert operations.
The fifth, yet critical, pillar of Maximum Pressure 2.0 should be maximum
support for the Iranian people. Having demonstrated their aspirations for
democratic and secular governance through protests, the antiregime Iranians are
crucial to Washington’s policy toward the Islamic Republic. Supporting
grassroots movements within Iran not only exacerbates internal pressure on the
regime but also reinforces the alignment of Iranian youth with American values
of liberty, equality, and democracy, laying the foundation for a future where a
liberated Iran stands as a steadfast ally to the U.S.
**Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Janatan Sayeh is a research
analyst. They contribute to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Economic and
Financial Power.
The New Orleans Terror Attack: Why It’s Not So ‘Senseless’ After All
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/January 08/2025
What is the logic behind terror attacks such as the one which occurred in the
early hours of New Year’s Day when a Muslim man plowed his truck into people in
New Orleans, killing 14 and wounding dozens?
The same thing, incidentally, happened just before Christmas in Germany. On
December 20, Taleb Abdulmohsen, a Muslim man from Saudi Arabia (with a long
history of pretending to be an anti-Islamic convert to Christianity) plowed his
vehicle through a crowded Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing five people and
injuring more than 200 others.
The media and officials were, and are, at a loss to establish motive for either
of these attacks — other than telling us the usual, that the men were suffering
from mental disorders, were experiencing personal problems, had “grievances,”
and so on and so forth.
Yet the motive — which, as we shall see, does seem erratic and counterintuitive
—was spelled out just over one year ago, and is worth revisiting.
A Year-Old Call to Act
In early January, 2024, the Islamic State issued a statement making seemingly
strange and unexpected assertions. For starters, the terror group took
responsibility for bombing Israel’s archenemy, Iran, and killing over 100 people
in Kerman. It also told Muslims that, although Israel and Jews are indeed chief
enemies of Islam, and although Muslims were at the time irate over the killing
of Palestinians, it was not the time to fight Israel. Rather, ISIS urged Muslims
to randomly kill people in the West. From here, it is, of course, easy to see
why some accuse the terror group of being created by the CIA, Mossad, etc.
And yet — and here’s the interesting part — everything ISIS said was connected
to Islamic teaching and law.
Muslim vs. Muslim
First, ISIS attacked Iran because, as a Shia nation, not only is it not Muslim —
and therefore an infidel enemy like the rest — but it’s something of a wolf in
sheep’s clothing. To the average Sunni Muslim, it seems Islamic enough; it
seemingly champions the causes of Islam, such as pitting the Palestinians
against Israel, etc. But in reality, argues ISIS, Iran’s “expansionist plans,
their projects, and their plots against Muslims are no less dangerous and
spiteful than those of the Jews or Crusaders.”Second, ISIS counseled Muslims not
to fight Israel because the primary beneficiary of such a fight would be the
Palestinian Authority, which is no less an infidel than Israel because it does
not enforce sharia. What’s the point of toppling one infidel power only to
replace it with another? According to the statement:
The battle with the Jews is a religious one and not a national or populist one!
It is not a battle for land, soil, or borders! …A Muslim fights the Jews because
they have committed kufr [disbelief] against Allah Almighty…. [T]he purpose of
battle is to impose tawhid for Allah and upholding His word. This purpose has
been absent from the latest battle in Gaza.
ISIS even went on to mock the concept of “Palestinian liberation”:
[T]his interpretation of liberation itself requires liberation. Liberating a
land does not mean to free it from one secular government in favor of a
democratic one, and it does not mean releasing it from a Jewish constitution
only to be governed by a Palestinian constitution, for the laws that govern
Palestine and the Jewish statelet are one, they are manmade and all such
governments are alike to Almighty Allah. A land not ruled by Islamic Shari’ah is
not liberated even if all Jews and invaders leave it. In fact, it is still a
captive of kufr laws, and international jahiliya codes.
Random Acts of Terror
Finally, killing people in the West by plowing vehicles into crowds also was
ISIS’s idea and counsel to its followers, as reflected by the title of the
terror group’s statement “Kill Them Wherever You Find Them.” This is a
paraphrase of Koran 9:5, known in Islamic jurisprudence as the “Verse of the
Sword.”
In that scripture, Allah calls on Muslims to “Kill the mushrikin [pagans,
idolaters, in short, non-Muslims] wherever you find them — capture them, besiege
them, and lie in wait for them on every way.” In keeping with that mandate, ISIS
urged Muslims to
Chase your preys whether Jewish, Christian or their allies, on the streets and
roads of America, Europe, and the world. Break into their homes, kill them and
steal their peace of mind by any means you can lay hands on…. : detonate
explosives, burn them with grenades and fiery agents, shoot them with bullets,
cut their throats with sharp knives, and run them over with vehicles…. Come at
them from every door, kill them by the worst of means, turn their gatherings and
celebrations into bloody massacres, do not distinguish between a civilian kaffir
[infidel], and a military one, for they are all kuffar [infidels] and the ruling
against them is one. Nor were these the first such attacks, either. Although
there have been many, one of the most notorious vehicular attacks took place in
2016, when a Muslim man drove a truck over people celebrating Bastille Day in
Nice, France, killing 87 and wounding 437 others.
Such is the seeming caprice and nihilism of Islamic terrorism. It knows no
bounds and can strike at any time and any place, without — at least in the eyes
of infidels — rhyme or reason. At any rate, here is some context as to what
propelled the New Orleans massacre that opened 2025.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar, is the
Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith
Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Syria… and Hysteria
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
Syria has been addressed hysterically, by both those supporters and the
opponents, since Assad fled the country. Those in awe of what is happening have
become hypersensitive to comments and criticism, while some criticism,
finger-pointing, and escalation have been shockingly hysterical.
That is the case despite the fact that Assad fled Damascus for Moscow and the
new Syrian administration took over exactly a month ago. While a week can be a
long time in politics, something entirely different is happening.
I have always believed that political scenarios are never precisely replicated
in our region, and I still do. Since the "Arab Spring," which led to the
collapse of regimes and deposed presidents, mistakes in timing and a lack of
seriousness have been the only consistency. However, there is no "blueprint" for
the region.
Syria presents a unique case. It was home to a sincere revolution; its people
have suffered particularly heavily, and its institutions, because of the Assads’
corruption- both father and son- have been hit particularly hard. Its social
fabric has been systematically ripped apart over the past fourteen years by
Iran’s intervention. Hysteria of demands, criticisms, and provocations are being
made. There is a deliberate effort to spread misinformation and attack the new
administration. At the same time, we have also seen fanciful celebrations of the
new Syria and its current and future political system. However, neither of these
extremes provides us with what we need. We need more rationality, awareness, and
humility.
We need to support Syria today, stand by it, and publicly state that actions
will carry more weight than words. We must not be deceived by narratives about
"minorities;” the focus must be on the nation, citizenship, and institutions
that uphold these principles.
What matters most is that Syria is now in the hands of its people. Everyone must
accept the choices Syrians make for themselves and avoid falling into illusions
about Iran’s return or stirring tensions and further inflaming the situation.
Both the region and the international community have an interest in seeing the
emergence of a stable and successful Syria.
Everyone has an interest in Syria being a partner rather than the site of
conspiracies, regional ambitions, or ideological plots. It is unreasonable to
make demands of the Syrian people that other countries have not lived up to. For
example, countries with sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regimes that host
militias should not lecture Syrians on governance; that is simply
unacceptable.Likewise, it is unfair to expect Ahmed al-Sharaa to accomplish at
once everything that Assad had failed to achieve during his reign despite many
justifying his crimes. What we need is support and engagement to ensure that the
course of reform and stability continues. This approach is far more effective
and honorable than unjustified and unacceptable attacks.There is no black and
white in Syria’s story, and there rarely is in politics. However, one thing is
certain: anything is an improvement to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, be it in terms
of the political system or the leadership. I am confident that Syria will be
much better off after Assad’s escape and the collapse of his criminal regime. We
need to see strong support for Syria and intensive Arab engagement. We must
remember that the new system, whatever its nature, must confront severe
challenges left by both the Assad era and broader regional developments. Thus,
we must call for sensible discourse that avoids both naïve idealism and
misguided disregard. This is a moment to support Syria and ensure that it serves
its people and reinforces regional stability and prosperity.
On the Margins of the 'Regime and Society' Question in
Syria
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/January 08/2025
A theory that genuine revolutions are those that change society, not the regime,
has been ubiquitous in discussions of Syrian affairs. Nonetheless, this claim is
more of a slogan than a theory- it says everything and nothing. That revolutions
are assessed by the extent to which they change social relations, ideas,
culture, education, questions of sex and gender, and consequently views of the
self and the world, is self-evident. But is change on any of those fronts even
possible without changing the political regime? Is toppling the regime not a
necessary, albeit insufficient, condition for social change? Indeed, we are not
talking about states that respect civil society’s independence or shy away from
interfering in every social and cultural process. With regard to Syria in
particular, the Assad apparatus that was called a state has always been infamous
for two things above all else: interfering in every nook and cranny of its
citizens' lives- their social relations, education, and even communication at
the most basic level- and viciously punishing those who fail to conform to the
standards it imposed. The macabre scenes we saw in Sednaya and elsewhere speak
louder than words.
For this reason, it is entirely valid to read the "change society rather than
the regime" theory as an attempt to find a way out of taking part in the effort
to change the regime, and therefore as an indication of indifference to societal
change.
On the other hand, Syrians and those concerned with Syria’s future must now
contend with a different kind of problem in post-Bashar Syria: What happens when
the regime is overthrown but social change does not begin, or when, as many
Syrians fear, society finds itself risking a change for the worse?
Here, we are faced with the antithesis of the first theory: changing the regime
is sufficient, making social change- or to be more precise, people’s freedom to
change their society in line with their own experiences and aspirations-
unnecessary.
The fact is that both theories cover only a fraction of the concept, albeit on
antithetical grounds, and then replace the holistic definition with their
fraction. They also both serve to maintain an authoritarian status quo and go
against those who seek to dismantle it. Moreover, both are grounded in communal
animosities that are not difficult to unpack. Traditionally, the first theory
has seen secularism as the key to societal change, embracing the assumption that
neutralizing religion allows for erasing the distinction between the majority
and the minorities. In turn, the second theory historically- and currently-
concludes that the answer is (either quasi-democratic or non-democratic)
populist governance, that allows the numerical majority to determine the nature
of "guarantees" and "reassurances" offered to minorities.
What can be said today is that the fall of the regime opens the door to the
long, difficult, and complex task of "changing society." Here, the cultural
struggle comes to occupy a central position, and opposing views of what kind of
Syria Syrians aspire to clash. Actions and rhetoric that had once seemed to
reflect "culturalism,” which puts culture in the position that politics should
occupy and calls for societal change as a way of evading changes to the
political system, no longer seem that way. Personal and public freedoms, the
relationship between religion and politics, the status of women, historical
narratives, and educational curricula are all likely to be subjects of fierce
debate, alongside the unique identities of Syria’s various communities, whether
sectarian, regional, or ethnic. All the more so in light of the lethal blows
dealt to the "nationalist" forces and the "resistance" in Syria and across the
Levant, which have removed the burden of irresolvable "existential" causes from
the shoulders of societal and cultural questions that can be resolved.
Of course, those who are waging this struggle today have nothing in common with
those who had called for changing society without changing the regime yesterday.
The battle is being waged by the sons and daughters of the 2011 revolution, who
have paid a heavy price for their effort to overthrow the regime, and they now
find themselves confronted with the challenges of transforming society.
The most pressing question is not whether it will take three or four years to
formulate a constitution and hold elections, but the climate that will prevail
during this period. Will there be an effort to ensure a free and peaceful
environment that makes the formation of organizations, associations, and
parties, and the exchange of ideas possible? Or will Syrians who aspire to
change that goes beyond the regime be clamped down on?
The reality is that this new struggle will not be easy. Syria is dealing with a
grinding economic crisis, its population is scattered, the political situation
differs according to region, and all of that is compounded by the political void
left by the fallen regime. Additionally, the regime’s decades-long severe
repression of social and cultural activism left the country with no foundations
or accumulated efforts that could be built upon. Nevertheless, any prohibitions
or obstacles sent by the new regime would set the stage for future conflicts
that we hope the new Syria can be spared. Either the phase that is now emerging
allows for a struggle over social and cultural matters in which peaceful
engagement replaces military conflict, or ruin likely looms over the horizon.