English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 08/2025
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Tell John what you have seen and heard: the blind receive their sight, the lame walk, the lepers are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, the poor have good news brought to them. And blessed is anyone who takes no offence at me
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 07/18-30: “John summoned two of his disciples and sent them to the Lord to ask, ‘Are you the one who is to come, or are we to wait for another?’ When the men had come to him, they said, ‘John the Baptist has sent us to you to ask, “Are you the one who is to come, or are we to wait for another?” ’ Jesus had just then cured many people of diseases, plagues, and evil spirits, and had given sight to many who were blind. And he answered them, ‘Go and tell John what you have seen and heard: the blind receive their sight, the lame walk, the lepers are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, the poor have good news brought to them. And blessed is anyone who takes no offence at me.’ When John’s messengers had gone, Jesus began to speak to the crowds about John: ‘What did you go out into the wilderness to look at? A reed shaken by the wind? What then did you go out to see? Someone dressed in soft robes? Look, those who put on fine clothing and live in luxury are in royal palaces. What then did you go out to see? A prophet? Yes, I tell you, and more than a prophet. This is the one about whom it is written, “See, I am sending my messenger ahead of you, who will prepare your way before you.” I tell you, among those born of women no one is greater than John; yet the least in the kingdom of God is greater than he.’(And all the people who heard this, including the tax-collectors, acknowledged the justice of God, because they had been baptized with John’s baptism. But by refusing to be baptized by him, the Pharisees and the lawyers rejected God’s purpose for themselves.)”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 07-08/2025
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Dima Sadek's Documentary on Shiite Victimhood is a Blatant and Shameless Falsification/January 07/2025
The Presidential Entitlement: A Crisis of Order and Morals/Etienne Sakr (Abu Arz)/January 07/2025
US shifts more than $100M in military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon to bolster ceasefire
Lebanese army takes control of western sector in country’s south
US and French generals observe army's 5th Brigade operations in south
Ceasefire panel says army is 'the only institution for the defense and security of Lebanon'
Hochstein Calls for Full Implementation of the Taif Agreement
Le Drian Will Attend the January 9 Session
Hochstein says Israeli forces have begun pullout from Naqoura
Reports: Hochstein tells Lebanon Israel hasn't told US it'll stay in south
Report: US-Saudi efforts to convince Berri to endorse Aoun
Opposition to have 'unified stance' in Jan. 9 session
Geagea says ready to consider Aoun if 'liar' defiance camp endorses him
Jumblat says Aoun still his candidate, rejects peace with Israel
Tripartite Collaboration to Address Social and Humanitarian Challenges in Lebanon
Bank Restructuring in the Council of Ministers: The Stakes of a Highly Controversial Project
Can Joseph Aoun Be Legally Elected on January 9?/Elie Ziadé/This Is Beirut/January 07/2025
Hajj Safa... Threaten As You Will!/Johnny Kortbawi/This is Beirut/January 07/2025
The Presidential Election Hangs in the Balance/Philippe Abi-Akl/This is Beirut/January 07/2025

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 07-08/2025
Iran's nuclear programme nearing point of no return, France's Macron says
France says conditions of citizens held in Iran akin to torture
Hamas stands by demand for end to Gaza war under hostage deal, as Trump deadline approaches
UAE says it has discussed a potential role in postwar Gaza, but conditions remain unmet
Erdogan tells Iraqi Kurdish PM that Turkey working to keep Syria secure
Jordan, Syria to combat arms and drugs smuggling, resurgence of Daesh
International flights resume at Damascus airport
Qatar and Turkiye dispatch two power ships to generate electricity for Syria
Syria Druze rebels say ready to join new national army
Germany pushing for EU to relax sanctions on Syria, FT reports
US allows transactions with governing institutions in Syria despite sanctions
Trump threatens to use 'economic force' to make Canada 51st state
Trump says he would use 'economic force' on Canada
Biden says 'the world is better off' because of Trudeau
Trump announces $20B US investment by Emirati businessman
Hussain Abdul-Hussain on X App

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on January 07-08/2025
Pope Francis Violates Catholic Teaching by Bearing False Witness Against Israel/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/January 7, 2025
Presidential elections for what?/Charles Elias Chartouni//January 7, 2025
Minorities in Syria: Prospects and controversies/Eyad Abu Shakra/Arab News/January 07, 2025
Can Netanyahu maintain control after the war?/Dr. Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/January 07, 2025
Netanyahu’s testimony an embarrassment for Israel/Yossi Mekelberg//Arab News/January 07, 2025
Will 2025 elections continue the incumbency backlash?/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/January 07, 2025

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 07-08/2025
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Dima Sadek's Documentary on Shiite Victimhood is a Blatant and Shameless Falsification
Elias Bejjani/January 07/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/138797/
"Enough with the attacks on what is referred to as 'Political Maronism' as a cover for disasters and a justification for the crimes, heresies, terrorism, and atrocities committed in the eras that followed. These periods were marked by jihadists, Arab nationalists, leftists, and so-called resistance merchants abandoning Lebanon's values of freedom, independence, democracy, and coexistence.
In reality, there was never a historical period of 'Political Maronism' in Lebanon. Rather, it was an era of independence, freedom, progress, peace, openness, democracy, art, culture, and leadership.
The so-called "Political Maronism" was Lebanon's only true era of independence following liberation from the French Mandate.
Every era that followed was marked by submission and subjugation to Palestinian, Syrian, and Iranian occupations driven by sectarian motives that destroyed Lebanon, obliterated its sovereignty, displaced its people, and dismantled its institutions—most glaringly evident in the ongoing crimes of the Iranian Shiite duo. In the context of Lebanon's continued Iranianization and the attempts to beautify this era, Dima Sadek's documentary aired yesterday on MTV under the title "Shiite Victimhood."
This fabricated and falsified documentary has no connection to history, truth, or facts. It is nothing but deception, a deliberate distortion aimed at misleading the Lebanese public and justifying the crimes and Persian agenda of the Iranian Shiite duo with vulgarity and audacity.
For countless reasons, the genuine independence era, misrepresented as "Political Maronism," must never be equated with any political phase that followed.
The Shiite duo has committed heinous crimes against Lebanon, holding their sect hostage, alienating it from its homeland, and plunging it into disasters.
Therefore, the so-called "Shiite duo" has no connection to Lebanon or the Shiite community itself.
Yes, absolutely, the Shiites are a respected and influential Lebanese component whose rights should be equal to those of all Lebanese, and their duties should also be bound by the state, the law, the constitution, and national charters.
No to Dima Sadek's leftist-leaning documentary, driven by dreams of throwing Israel and the Jews into the sea while deceitfully exploiting the Palestinian cause.
In conclusion, the leaders of the Shiite duo must be prosecuted for all the crimes they have committed against Lebanon and the Shiite community, specifically Hezbollah, which must be prohibited from engaging in any political, social, or cultural activities.


The Presidential Entitlement: A Crisis of Order and Morals
Etienne Sakr (Abu Arz)/January 07/2025
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2025/01/138820/

(Free translation,by Elias Bejjani, Editor & Publisher of the LCCC website)
In advanced democratic countries, the transfer of power is managed regularly and precisely, in accordance with constitutions and established norms. However, in Lebanon, the reality is starkly different. Constitutional processes, particularly the presidential elections, frequently devolve into complex crises, leading to prolonged power vacuums that can extend for months, even years. This disgraceful state of affairs is the direct result of personal conflicts within the corrupt political class, where self-interests and petty disputes override national priorities and the welfare of the people.
More alarmingly, most candidates do not rely on the will of the people or their personal competencies. Instead, they turn to regional and international powers, seeking support from foreign embassies and decision-making capitals to fulfill personal ambitions. These disgraceful practices have stripped constitutional processes of their national significance, tarnishing Lebanon's image globally and reducing the country's sovereignty to a mere bargaining chip in the marketplace of international politics.
The critical question remains: How long will constitutional processes remain hostage to political opportunists? How much longer will this reckless behavior, which deepens division and accelerates collapse, persist?
We call upon the Lebanese people, the true source of authority and legitimacy, to reclaim their power and reject this systematic sabotage of the nation's destiny. Only the people's will can dismantle this corrupt political class, enforce respect for the constitution and the rule of law, and restore Lebanon's dignity, glory, and civilizational role among nations.
When will you awaken from your deep slumber, O sleeping giant?
Lebanon at your service
Etienne Sakr – Abu Arz

US shifts more than $100M in military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon to bolster ceasefire
MATTHEW LEE/WASHINGTON (AP)/January 7, 2025
The Biden administration in its final days is shifting more than $100 million in military aid from Israel and Egypt to Lebanon as it tries to bolster a ceasefire agreement it helped mediate between Israel and Hezbollah. In separate notices sent to Congress, the State Department said it was moving $95 million in military assistance intended for Egypt and $7.5 million for Israel toward supporting the Lebanese army and its government. The notices were dated Jan. 3 and obtained by The Associated Press on Tuesday. Most of the money will go to the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have a critical role in standing up the ceasefire that was agreed to in November following an all-out war that battered much of southern and eastern Lebanon for two months. It is intended to help the LAF deploy in the south of the country and supplement the role of the U.N. peacekeeping mission patrolling the so-called Blue Line, which has separated Israel and Lebanon since the end of a 2006 war between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group. “Successful implementation (of the ceasefire) will require an empowered LAF, which will need robust assistance from the United States and other partners,” the State Department said in the notices, both of which used nearly identical language to explain the funding shifts. Both Israel and Hezbollah agreed to pull their forces out of southern Lebanon before the end of January, with compliance to be overseen by the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers.
“U.S. security assistance to the LAF increases its capacity as the country’s only legitimate military force and defender of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, enables the LAF to prevent potential destabilization from ISIS and other terrorist groups, and enables the LAF to provide security both for the Lebanese people and for U.S. personnel,” the State Department said. Critics of U.S. assistance to the Lebanese military have often complained that it has been infiltrated by Hezbollah, but the notices rejected that claim. “U.S. support to the LAF reinforces the LAF as an important institutional counterweight to Hezbollah, which receives weapons, training, and financial support from Iran,” the State Department said. “The LAF continues to be an independent, non-sectarian institution in Lebanon, and is respected across all sectors.”In a third notice, also sent to Congress on Jan. 3, the department said it was going to provide $15 million to Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces to ensure that they become the primary law enforcement entity in the country and assist the LAF in controlling areas in the south. That money will primarily be used to rebuild police stations, improve radio communications and purchase vehicles, the notice said.
The third notice also informed lawmakers that the administration would provide $3.06 million to the Palestinian Authority police to support its operations in the West Bank and $2.5 million to Jordan's Public Security Directorate to support its response to public demonstrations.

Lebanese army takes control of western sector in country’s south

NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/January 07, 2025
BEIRUT: On Tuesday, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed that Thursday is the scheduled date for the parliamentary session to elect a president, a position that has been vacant for two years, two months, and one week. Berri’s confirmation coincided with the continued deployment of the Lebanese army in the western sector of southern Lebanon following the withdrawal of Israeli forces that had been there since last October.It also coincided with US envoy Amos Hochstein, who is in Beirut for the second day, stating that “Israeli forces will withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days,” reflecting, according to a political observer, “an international desire to defuse the tensions of war feared by the Lebanese between the Israeli army and Hezbollah after the 60-day deadline.”The US Embassy in Lebanon announced on Tuesday that “US Major General Jasper Jeffers, the Chairman of the Cessation of Hostilities Implementation Mechanism, was joined by French Brigadier General Guillaume Ponchin on a visit to the Lebanese Armed Forces headquarters in southwest Lebanon this morning. The headquarters is five kilometers northeast of Naqoura, a town under the control of the Lebanese Armed Forces after the first phase of withdrawal by Israeli forces on January 6th.”
The embassy said that “Generals Jeffers and Ponchin viewed stockpiles of weapons to be destroyed in the coming days, which the LAF seized from unauthorized armed groups.”On Tuesday, Lebanese army vehicles prepared to continue repositioning in locations previously vacated during the Israeli forces’ incursion, including in Labouneh and Alma Al-Shaab. The army also redeployed at the entrance to the town of Tayr Harfa. For the first time since the war, fishermen entered the port of Naqoura, accompanied by the Lebanese army, to inspect their boats, some of which had been sunk. While the Lebanese army prohibited citizens from returning to areas where the army is still conducting surveys, Naqoura Mayor Abbas Awada revealed the extent of systematic destruction in the border area. He stated: “The town of Naqoura is almost completely destroyed. I urge the town’s residents to wait before returning until field inspections are completed due to the fear of unexploded ordnance.”
Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun informed Hochstein on Monday during a meeting that “the Lebanese military deployment on the borders requires the full withdrawal of Israeli forces.”He emphasized: “The inability to fully implement the agreement is due to the continued Israeli presence in southern villages.”After meeting with Lebanese officials, Hochstein stressed that “the US supports the Lebanese army, and southern Lebanon will return to stability and security.”Hochstein, in the context of addressing the presidential file in Lebanon, emphasized during a meeting with a range of MPs affiliated with various blocs or acting independently that “the United States is a friendly nation to Lebanon and will continue to support it and its army.” As French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian joins the ongoing efforts to address the presidential file with his arrival in Beirut on Tuesday, Hochstein emphasized during the parliamentary meeting “the necessity for Lebanon, and implicitly any incoming president, to adhere to the Taif Agreement and the essential agreements and reforms.”MPs are divided regarding the election of the army commander. Hezbollah MPs insist on supporting their candidate, former Minister Sleiman Frangieh, while the Free Patriotic Movement categorically rejects the candidacy of Aoun.
Discussions and meetings regarding a consensus candidate among the Lebanese political parties are taking place away from the public eye. However, the names currently being circulated do not yet command the majority needed for victory.
MP Bilal Hashimi stated that “the presidency dynamic remains characterized by ambiguity and complexity, despite the notable external activity represented by the arrival of American and French envoys to Lebanon.”The leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea, affirmed that his party maintains “a positive relationship with General Joseph Aoun. When Aoun’s name was proposed as a presidential candidate, the Lebanese Forces were the first to regard him as one of the serious contenders and did not impose any veto against his name at any point in time.”The Grand Mufti of Lebanon, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, cautioned against “any obstruction that may prevent the election of a president on Thursday.”He emphasized that “the ongoing presidential vacancy provides the Israeli enemy with an opportunity to exploit political divisions to undermine the unity and solidarity of the Lebanese people and put the country at risk of collapse.”The President of Economic Organizations Mohammad Choucair urged lawmakers to complete the presidential election process, emphasizing that “we have no option but the state, as it is the only solution to rescue Lebanon and guide it back to a path of recovery.” The President of the Economic, Social, and Environmental Council Charles Arbid called upon the members of parliament to “complete the presidential election as it is essential for a functioning state,” emphasizing the need for “a reformist leader to guide the nation and restore Lebanon to a stable country.”

US and French generals observe army's 5th Brigade operations in south
Naharnet/January 07/2025
U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers, the Chairman of the Cessation of Hostilities Implementation Mechanism, was joined by French Brigadier General Guillaume Ponchin on a visit to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) 5th Brigade headquarters in southwest Lebanon on Tuesday morning, the U.S. Embassy said. The headquarters is five kilometers northeast of Naqoura, a town under the control of the Lebanese Armed Forces after the first phase of withdrawal by Israeli forces on January 6. “As part of the Mechanism-enabled transition, the LAF immediately deployed forces to the area to clear roads, remove unauthorized munitions, and provide security for the people of Lebanon,” the Embassy said in a statement. Generals Jeffers and Ponchin viewed stockpiles of weapons to be destroyed in the coming days, which the LAF seized from “unauthorized armed groups,” the statement added. Commending the LAF’s work, MG Jeffers said: “The LAF is the legitimate security provider for Lebanon and continues to demonstrate to me and the rest of the Mechanism it has the capability, intent, and leadership to secure and defend Lebanon.”“They have acted decisively, rapidly, and with clear expertise. Today, we saw an example of this with the soldiers of the 5th Brigade. The engineer corps in particular is full of true professionals, removing and rendering safe hundreds of pieces of unexploded ordnance every week,” Jeffers added.

Ceasefire panel says army is 'the only institution for the defense and security of Lebanon'
Naharnet/January 07/2025
The five-party Cessation of Hostilities Implementation Mechanism, which is tasked with monitoring the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, convened at a UNIFIL position in Ras Naqoura Monday for the third Pentalateral Meeting, a joint statement from the U.S. and French embassies in Lebanon and UNIFIL said. Amos Hochstein, the Deputy Assistant to the President of the United States, and U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers co-chaired the meeting, joined by representatives of France, the Israeli army, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and UNIFIL, as well as the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon. The group discussed military technical plans for the “phased withdrawal” of the Israeli army from the entire South Litani Area and deployment of LAF, “beginning in the west and progressing east,” the statement said. “The LAF have been preparing to conduct this operation for the past month by removing over 10,000 pieces of unexploded ordnance, with UNIFIL support, that would otherwise prevent safe troop deployment,” the statement added. It said the overall operation began Monday at 12:00 PM, when Israeli units in Naqoura initiated movement south of the Blue Line.“The LAF is the only institution for the defense and security of Lebanon and the Mechanism is working closely with LAF leaders to support their actions,” the statement stressed.

Hochstein Calls for Full Implementation of the Taif Agreement
This is Beirut/January 07/2025
US Envoy Amos Hochstein visited MP Fouad Makhzoumi's residence on Tuesday in the presence of Lebanese MPs from different parliamentary blocs. He stressed “the need for Lebanon and for the future President to commit to the full implementation of the Taif Agreement and to the implementation of the reforms necessary for the country's recovery.”During the meeting, they discussed the issue of the ceasefire concluded on November 27 to put an end to hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Hochstein, who has been in Beirut since Monday morning, chaired a meeting of the ceasefire monitoring committee at the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in Naqoura. He also held talks with General Joseph Aoun before continuing his tour to Ain el-Tineh, where he was awaited by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. He then met caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail.

Le Drian Will Attend the January 9 Session

This is Beirut/January 07/2025
The French President’s special envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, will attend the January 9 parliamentary session convened to elect a president, after an invitation by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Le Drian will begin a visit to Beirut on Tuesday as part of his mission of good offices, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs said in a press release. The statement claims that this visit is part of the two-year-long process that has been carried out in close consultation with the Quintet and Lebanese “partners and friends” to allow the Lebanese to pick a president in line with the principles decided upon in Doha in July 2023. It is also a continuation of the recent visits by the US and Saudi envoys. “The election of a President of the Republic is the first step in the urgent reactivation of Lebanese institutions and the restoration of the country’s sovereignty,” it added. “The election of a president should be followed by the appointment of a strong government, capable of bringing the Lebanese together, responding to their aspirations and carrying out the reforms necessary for Lebanon’s stability and security,” the declaration concluded, urging the MPs to agree on January 9.

Hochstein says Israeli forces have begun pullout from Naqoura
Agence France Presse/Associated Press
Visiting U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said Israeli forces began withdrawing on Monday from a south Lebanon border town more than halfway into a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. It is the second such pullout since a November 27 ceasefire, and came after United Nations peacekeepers and Lebanon's prime minister late last month called on the Israeli army to speed up its withdrawal from Lebanon's south. "The Israeli military started its withdrawal from Naqoura... and back into Israel proper today, south of the Blue Line," Hochstein told reporters, referring to the U.N.-demarcated boundary between Israel and Lebanon. "These withdrawals will continue until all Israeli forces are out of Lebanon completely, and as the Lebanese Army continues to deploy into the south and all the way to the Blue Line," he added after meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah.
"I have no reason not to expect that all parties -- all parties -- will remain committed to implementing the agreement that they agreed to," he added after meeting caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and following accusations from Israel and Hezbollah that each side was violating the deal. Hochstein did not confirm whether the pullout would be completed within the 60-day limit under the ceasefire conditions. “We have 20 days left to reach the 60 days. We are going to continue the same work that has led to the successful withdrawal and deployment that we saw today,” Hochstein said.
Israel in September stepped up its bombing campaign and later sent troops into Lebanon following nearly a year of exchanges of cross-border fire initiated by Hezbollah over the war in Gaza.Under the terms of the ceasefire which Hochstein helped broker, the Lebanese Army is to deploy alongside United Nations peacekeepers in the south as the Israeli army withdraws over a 60-day period.
'On the right track'
Hezbollah is to pull its forces north of the Litani River -- about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border -- and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure in the south. Mikati called for "a clear timetable to complete the Israeli withdrawal before the end of the 60-day deadline," according to a statement released by his office. It added that any "talk of Israel's intention to extend the ceasefire deadline is firmly rejected." The Lebanese military said that "army units have stationed around the town of Naqoura... and began deploying there in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon," referring to UNIFIL, whose headquarters is in Naqoura. The deployment came "in parallel with the Israeli enemy's withdrawal," the statement said, and coincided "with a meeting of the five-member committee" overseeing the ceasefire that was also attended by Hochstein. The Israeli army told AFP that it "operates according to the directive of the political echelon and is committed to the understanding in regards to the ceasefire conditions." A committee composed of Israeli, Lebanese, French and U.S. delegates alongside a UNIFIL representative is tasked with ensuring any ceasefire violations are identified and dealt with. Hochstein said he co-chaired the third meeting of the committee on Monday together with United States Major General Jasper Jeffers, adding that "the mechanism is working well."He said that while the ceasefire implementation may not have proceeded "as quickly as some wanted... what I heard in Naqoura today gives me hope that we're on the right track."
'Political consensus'
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Sunday accused Hezbollah of not withdrawing "beyond the Litani River" as stipulated, and of not meeting other terms of the ceasefire, after Hezbollah accused Israel of violations. On December 11, Lebanon's army said it deployed around the border town of Khiam in coordination with UNIFIL, also following the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the area. The U.S. military said it was the first such Israeli force withdrawal and subsequent Lebanese Army deployment under the ceasefire. During Monday's visit, his first since the truce, Hochstein also urged political consensus in Lebanon ahead of a presidential vote this week. Lebanon has been without a president for more than two years amid bitter divisions between Hezbollah and its opponents. "These are critical times for Lebanon... not just to implement this agreement, but to come to political consensus, to focus on Lebanon for Lebanese people," Hochstein said ahead Thursday's vote. "This is an opportunity... to really just focus on rebuilding the economy," on implementing "reforms that will allow for investment, and returning the country to economic growth and prosperity for all," Hochstein added.
The Lebanese Army said Hochstein and Jeffers also met with Army Commander Joseph Aoun on Monday, discussing the ceasefire. Aoun's name has been floated as a potential presidential candidate.

Reports: Hochstein tells Lebanon Israel hasn't told US it'll stay in south
Naharnet/January 07/2025
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has told Lebanon that the United States has not received any message from Israel about an intention to keep Israeli forces in south Lebanon beyond January 27, informed sources said. The U.S. envoy, who is visiting Lebanon, declared that his country “will press Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon by January 27 at the latest,” the sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. Washington will also “press the Lebanese side to honor its commitments as to the Lebanese Army’s deployment in the positions vacated by Israel” and will call on Lebanon “not to allow Hezbollah’s fighters” to return to the south Litani region, the sources added.

Report: US-Saudi efforts to convince Berri to endorse Aoun
Naharnet/January 07/2025
Paris is counting on U.S.-Saudi efforts to convince Speaker Nabih Berri to endorse Joseph Aoun’s presidential nomination, especially after U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein met with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Riyadh, An-Nahar newspaper reported on Tuesday. “All the countries of the five-nation group for Lebanon agree to the army chief’s presidential nomination and Qatar has told the French at the highest levels that it supports Aoun,” a French source told the daily.The source added that he does not rule out that French President Emmanuel Macron might call Berri after the parliament speaker meets with French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Opposition to have 'unified stance' in Jan. 9 session
Naharnet/January 07/2025
The opposition and change MPs will have a “unified plan” in the January 9 presidential election session, MP George Okais announced after a meeting for the opposition and change MPs on Tuesday.“The opposition will confront any attempt to elect a president who resembles the previous period,” Okais added.“When the stance of the forces refusing the election of Army chief Joseph Aoun changes, the opposition will have a positive stance” on his nomination, the lawmaker went on to say, referring to the Hezbollah-led camp.

Geagea says ready to consider Aoun if 'liar' defiance camp endorses him
Naharnet/January 07/2025
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday described the Hezbollah-led “defiance camp” as a “liar” camp, but noted that the LF is however willing to “carefully consider” the nomination of Army chief Joseph Aoun if the defiance camp officially endorses him for the presidency. “Instead of highlighting their real stance on General Joseph Aoun’s nomination through serious statements and stances announcing that they reject his election as president, they filled TV screens with statements depicting the LF as being the obstacle in the way of Aoun’s nomination,” Geagea lamented. “While the defiance groups have categorically rejected General Joseph Aoun’s presidential nomination for the past months or rather years, the LF has maintained a good relation with General Joseph Aoun and has never vetoed his nomination,” the LF leader clarified.

Jumblat says Aoun still his candidate, rejects peace with Israel
Naharnet/January 07/2025
Druze leader Walid Jumblat has said that Army Commander General Joseph Aoun is still his bloc’s presidential candidate, adding that his nomination has received “positive feedback from the five-nation group for Lebanon.”“Let us elect from the first round, seeing as postponing the elections until after the inauguration of (U.S.) President(-elect Donald) Trump could be a major mistake and could plunge us into the unknown, because the country cannot bear postponement,” Jumblat said in an interview on LBCI television. “If the army chief’s election fails, we have no alternative, and Aoun’s election represents a chance,” he added. As for the latest Israeli war on Lebanon, Jumblat said: “Hezbollah was not defeated and I respect the martyrs. The group suffered from internal gaps and the new reality must be accepted.”Rejecting the latest statements by Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem and Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa, Jumblat called for “building and immunizing the state” and suggested that Hezbollah’s fighters can be “integrated into the army.”As for the continuous Israeli violations, the Druze leader voiced concern that Israel could be seeking a new buffer zone in south Lebanon. “We must benefit from the presence of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein and Israel has bad intentions and ambitions, such as the Litani’s waters,” Jumblat added. Noting that “Iran has not abandoned Hezbollah, but has rather offered the available capabilities,” the Druze leader pointed out that “even these capabilities could not keep up with the U.S. technology.”“I’m against peace with Israel. I have been against it in the past and will always be and we must inherit this confrontation to the coming generations,” Jumblat added. “I had asked Hezbollah, through messages, not to get implicated in the war, and currently there is no cohtact with Wafiq Safa, but I have learned that he wants to meet with me and I don’t mind this, and there is no relation with Sheikh Naim Qassem,” Jumblat went on to say. Jumblat also called on Hezbollah to transform into a “political party,” adding that the country “has had enough wars” and needs “stability for its children.”

Tripartite Collaboration to Address Social and Humanitarian Challenges in Lebanon
This is Beirut/January 07/2025
The Lebanese Armed Forces, the Military Technical Committee for Lebanon (MTC4L), and the Lebanese Association of the Knights of Malta have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to address social and humanitarian challenges across Lebanon.
The MoU was signed on Tuesday, January 7, 2025, by General Joseph Aoun, Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Army; Major General Diodate Abagnara representing MTC4L; and Mr. Marwan Sehnaoui, President of the Lebanese Association of the Knights of Malta also known as Order of Malta Lebanon. This partnership builds on the longstanding cooperation between the Sovereign Order of Malta and the Lebanese State, consolidating the framework of coexistence and collaboration to serve vulnerable populations, as well as the deep and long-lasting relationship between the Order of Malta Lebanon and the Lebanese Army, built on mutual respect and a shared commitment to serving the Lebanese people. The initiative brings together the Lebanese Army, the Military Technical Committee for Lebanon (MTC4L), and the Order of Malta Lebanon, an organization present across the Lebanese territory, implementing over 60 projects in healthcare, social care, and agro-humanitarian aid to support vulnerable communities. MTC4L was created at the international level, under Italian leadership and with a dual objective: to support the Lebanese army but also and above all to support the Lebanese population through humanitarian initiatives. It operates in full compliance with the relevant United Nations resolutions and the bilateral and international missions operating on Lebanese territory. Under its leadership, it currently comprises 8 members (Italy, Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union), observers/partners and contributors (Australia, Canada, Egypt, Japan, the European External Action Service – EEAS, the European Union Military Staff – EUMS, UNIFIL, UNSCOL, Qatar, Belgium and Denmark). These three entities unite apolitically to foster stability and resilience in Lebanon. Joint committees will oversee planning and execution to ensure alignment with national and community priorities. This MoU underscores the complementarity between civil and military collaboration in line with the Order of Malta’s humanitarian mission to assist vulnerable populations. The agreement, effective immediately, ensures long-term collaboration with a three-year term and an automatic renewal.

Bank Restructuring in the Council of Ministers: The Stakes of a Highly Controversial Project
This is Beirut/January 07/2025
Lebanon is at a critical juncture in its economic crisis, with a Cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, chaired by caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who plans to address several issues, notably a sensitive bill concerning the restructuring of banks.
Quietly added to the agenda last Friday, this highly controversial draft has sparked an outcry across political, economic and public spheres, as it falls far short of being a true reform. A protest rally is set to take place at 2 PM in Riad el-Solh Square, while the government is scheduled to hold its meeting at 4 PM at the Grand Serail. The bill, inherited from the government of Hassan Diab and containing very few amendments, remains unconstitutional, as it includes provisions that would, among other things, effectively eliminate deposits made before the financial crisis. Within Parliament, many lawmakers are opposed to this reform, which they argue is not truly a reform. On Tuesday, MP Razi el-Hage, a member of the Strong Republic bloc (Lebanese Forces – FL), stated that the bill in question “undermines the rights of citizens and depositors.”In a statement, Hage condemned a “mafia-like regime” that drafted the bill in an attempt to cancel bank deposits and avoid its own responsibilities in the financial and economic crisis. “The scandalous part is that the Lebanese Central Bank (BDL) did not participate in preparing or reviewing the bill, which, in itself, is outrageous,” he exclaimed. Addressing depositors, the FL MP attempted to reassure them by stating that “every individual responsible in this matter will be held accountable. The issue will only be resolved after the return of trust and an economic revival.”

Can Joseph Aoun Be Legally Elected on January 9?
Elie Ziadé/This Is Beirut/January 07/2025
While General Joseph Aoun appears to be in pole position, his mandate as Commander-in-Chief of the Army – a first-category position – constitutionally prevents him from running for the presidency. According to Article 49 of the Constitution, “judges and first-category public officials, or their equivalents in all public administrations, public institutions and any other legal entity governed by public law, cannot be elected during the exercise of their functions or within two years following the date of their resignation, cessation of their duties or retirement.” General Joseph Aoun is still in office, his mandate having been renewed for the second time on November 28. Must the Constitution be amended for him to be elected? Does Parliament have the authority to do so?
Parliament: The Sole Legislative Authority
Constitutional amendments depend on the laws and practices of each country. These modifications can range from simple to complex, depending on constitutional systems. In the United Kingdom, which lacks a written Constitution and instead relies on constitutional principles developed over centuries, Parliament – comprising the House of Commons and the House of Lords – is sovereign and can legislate as it wishes. In the United States, amending the Constitution is a complex process: an amendment must be proposed by Congress (both houses, with two-thirds of the votes in each chamber) or by two-thirds of state legislatures calling for a convention. It must then be ratified by three-quarters of the states. In France, Article 89 of the Constitution outlines three steps: drafting the amendment, its identical approval by the National Assembly and the Senate, and its adoption either by referendum or by a vote of the Congress (the two chambers convened in Versailles) with a three-fifths majority of the votes cast. In Lebanon, in the absence of a Senate since 1927, legislative power is exercised solely by the Chamber of Representatives, as indicated in Article 16 of the Constitution. According to Articles 76 and 77 of the Constitution, amendments can be initiated by the president of the Republic or the House.
Constitutional Amendment: The Lebanese Procedure
Article 76 stipulates that the Constitution can be amended at the initiative of the president of the Republic, who submits a draft constitutional law to the government. Article 77 allows amendments to be initiated by Parliament. Such amendments require approval by a two-thirds majority of the MPs present. If the government approves the Chamber's proposal, it must submit a draft law within four months. In case of disagreement, the Chamber can insist with a three-quarters majority, prompting the president of the Republic to either accept the amendment or dissolve the government and call for new elections within three months. When a government is in place and a president is elected, a constitutional amendment requires consensus between the executive and legislative branches. Without such consensus, the legislative branch can override, potentially resulting in the dissolution of Parliament.
Previous Amendments
In 1995, Parliament extended President Elias Hrawi’s mandate by three years through a draft law prepared by Rafic Hariri’s government. In 1998, an amendment to Article 49 allowed the election of Emile Lahoud, then Commander-in-Chief of the Army. In September 2004, Hariri’s cabinet, with Syrian regime backing, passed a draft law extending Lahoud’s mandate by three years.
Institutional Deadlock Since 2006
Following the end of the Syrian occupation in 2005, which later gave way to Hezbollah's growing influence, Lebanese institutions began to erode. Then-Speaker Nabih Berri held Parliament hostage, refusing to recognize Fouad Siniora’s government and blocking the presidential election after Lahoud’s term ended in 2007. It was only in May 2008, after Hezbollah’s clashes in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, that the Doha Agreement facilitated the election of Army Commander Michel Sleiman to the presidency.
The Berri-Tabbara Precedent
During Sleiman’s 2008 election, several MPs highlighted the absence of a constitutional amendment to allow the election of a first-category public official. Speaker Berri relied on a study by former Justice Minister Bahij Tabbara, who argued that in the event of a presidential vacancy, the election could proceed under Article 74 of the Constitution. This article stipulates that Parliament convenes immediately in case of a presidential vacuum to elect a new president, bypassing eligibility restrictions for first-category officials.
The Current Debate: Amending the Constitution for Joseph Aoun
The debate persists over whether a constitutional amendment is necessary to elect Joseph Aoun. His opponents denounce the unconstitutionality of the move and claim that Parliament, as an electoral body, cannot amend the Constitution. However, some concede that it could convene a legislative session to pass laws in the event of a vacancy. General Aoun could still be elected even if the Berri-Tabbara precedent from 2007 is not invoked this time. A constitutional amendment requires the approval of two-thirds of MPs, as stipulated in Article 79. Thus, Aoun, or any ineligible candidate, would need to secure more than 87 votes to amend the Constitution before the election or be directly elected if Parliament considers that achieving this two-thirds majority constitutes a tacit amendment to the Constitution.
Quorum and Prospects
Whatever method is chosen, any candidate must secure 87 votes to meet the quorum and enable the election. The question remains whether obstructionist MPs will allow the election of a president they cannot control or if Lebanon, post-January 9, will remain under militia dominance, with blocked institutions and a prolonged presidential crisis.

Hajj Safa... Threaten As You Will!
Johnny Kortbawi/This is Beirut/January 07/2025
The most telling sign of a shift in Lebanon's political landscape and the fading of Hezbollah’s longstanding aura of fear became evident following Wafiq Safa's remarks about the country's current state of affairs. This public appearance, his first since the airstrike targeting him during the war, marks the significant shift in the dynamics at play. The change in the situation is striking. Previously, Wafiq Safa could brazenly enter the Justice Palace and threaten Judge Tarek Bitar over his investigative decisions. At that time, his action passed without a whisper of protest and the investigation into the Beirut port explosion lost momentum. Today, however, as Safa continues with his ominous rhetoric, the result is far from what he might expect. Instead of silencing public anger, his words have ignited a wave of defiance, with voices growing louder and more resolute.
Wafiq Safa no longer commands the same fear. The man who once disappeared for weeks, fearing another attack, and even spreading rumors of his own death to mislead Israeli forces, no longer has the power to speak with the same menacing tone. His fear of appearing in public was palpable.
The once all-powerful figure, who dictated presidential candidates, handed out vetoes, and decided who was a threat to Lebanon, now finds himself relegated to a mere protester. He has forgotten that in the present day, his power to veto is no longer the decisive force it once was. Today, all he can do is voice his disapproval, not impose his will. Lebanon has entered a new phase where no one can force their will upon others any longer. The era of vetoes is over, and a new reality has emerged: a time for legitimate opposition. If you disagree with someone, you need not resort to threats. Vote against them. And if they win, accept your role as an opposition figure. Wafiq Safa has been advocating for his party to regain the military power lost in the war, using increasingly forceful rhetoric. Yet, as he stood before his audience, he couldn't even prevent Israeli reconnaissance planes from flying above him. This is the "victory" he touts to his supporters—the one that supposedly grants him the authority to impose the conditions of the nation’s future. Now, Wafiq Safa has vanished into an undisclosed location, driven by fear of potential airstrikes should the truce collapse and tensions escalate. His once-unshakable confidence has given way to uncertainty. He even sought to intervene in a civil court case involving influencers who refused to sign defamation undertakings, all while obstructing the investigation into the largest non-nuclear explosion in history.
**Wafiq Safa is no longer the man he once was, and it seems unlikely he will ever regain his former power. Now that Lebanon has moved beyond the era of fear, let him issue threats as he pleases.

The Presidential Election Hangs in the Balance
Philippe Abi-Akl/This is Beirut/January 07/2025
Whether a president is elected in the upcoming January 9 session or the election is postponed, the incoming head of state must inevitably be fit for the new phase Lebanon is entering. There is no more room for maneuver, and the rapid developments in the region compel the authorities to change their approach, uphold the rule of law for everyone, implement the Taif Agreement in a comprehensive, non-selective way and respect the principle of parity, which Syria turned into a tripartite formula. Indeed, Syria altered the text and spirit of the Taif Agreement, making it a “Syrian Taif,” to serve its interests and those of its allies at the expense of Lebanon’s. Overriding the law, disregarding it and imposing customary practices before every constitutional deadline are now relics of a bygone era – not because the officials are more conscientious about saving the country from the harm they caused, but because Lebanon is now under international scrutiny, and its politicians risk sanctions, according to a Western diplomat. On the eve of the electoral session, political forces have yet to reach an agreement on a presidential candidate from a list that includes: General Joseph Aoun, Sleiman Frangieh, Jihad Azour, Samir Assaf, Major General Elias al-Baysari, Neemat Frem, Ziad Baroud, Farid al-Khazen, Brigadier General George Khoury, Nassif Hitti, Salah Honein and Farid Boustany. The (anti-Hezbollah) opposition has similarly failed to achieve consensus within its ranks. Consequently, parliamentary votes will be distributed among the different candidates, making it unlikely for any of them to secure 86 votes in the first round (a two-thirds majority) or 65 votes in subsequent rounds. These facts suggest that the upcoming session might be delayed until spring, providing time to agree on a candidate – unless a last-minute surprise occurs, supported by Saudi Arabia in coordination with the United States, France and Iran. A significant indication is the statement by Wafiq Safa, the head of Hezbollah’s Coordination and Liaison Unit, in which he declared that “there is no veto on Joseph Aoun.” If a president is not elected, predictions suggest that international attention to Lebanon’s file may wane due to officials’ negligence and failure to implement Resolution 1701 under the ceasefire agreement – implicitly rejected by Hezbollah, given its continued grip on state institutions. According to Western diplomatic sources, the presidential file “is not yet ripe.” Political circles, citing a French official who visited Lebanon recently, indicate that “France is striving to address the situation in the south to prevent a resumption of hostilities.” As such, Paris is working hard to extend the 60-day truce until spring and to seriously activate the mechanism for implementing the ceasefire agreement. Western diplomatic circles are concerned about the potential renewal of military confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah, after the latter has failed to disarm in accordance with the agreement. All these factors could contribute to delaying the presidential election, though the possibility of a last-minute surprise leading to a positive outcome on January 9 cannot be ruled out. The hours leading up to the session will be filled with developments and surprises that will determine the fate of the election and Joseph Aoun’s candidacy.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 07-08/2025
Iran's nuclear programme nearing point of no return, France's Macron says
Reuters/January 6, 2025
Iran's disputed uranium enrichment drive is nearing a point of no return and European partners to a moribund 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran should consider reimposing sanctions if there is no progress with Tehran, France's president said on Monday. Addressing an annual conference with French ambassadors to outline foreign policy objectives in 2025, President Emmanuel Macron described Iran as the main "strategic and security challenge" for France and Europe. "The acceleration of the nuclear programme leads us nearly to the point of no return," Macron said. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes and has stepped up the programme since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the 2015 deal during his first term of office and restored tough U.S. sanctions on Tehran. European powers France, Germany and Britain said last month Iran’s actions had further hollowed out the deal and would heighten its stockpile of high-enriched uranium without a "credible civilian justification". The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in December that the Islamic Republic was "dramatically" accelerating enrichment close to the roughly 90% level that is bomb-grade. The three European powers were co-signatories to the 2015 deal in which Iran agreed to curb enrichment, seen by the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear-weapons capability, in return for a lifting of international sanctions. French, German and British diplomats are set to hold a follow-up meeting with Iranian counterparts on Jan. 13 after one last month held to discuss the possibility of serious negotiations in coming months to defuse tensions with Tehran with Trump due to return to the White House on Jan. 20. "In the coming months we will have to ask ourselves whether to use ... the mechanism to restore sanctions," Macron said, referring to October 2025 when the 2015 accord formally expires. Macron said Iran's ballistic missiles and support for Russia also posed threats to Europe and this would become one of the main dossiers to be addressed in diplomacy with Trump after he took office.


France says conditions of citizens held in Iran akin to torture
John Irish/PARIS Reuters/January 7, 2025
The situation of three French citizens held in Iran is worsening with some being detained in conditions similar to torture, France's foreign minister said on Tuesday, adding that future ties and any lifting of sanctions would depend on their fate. French officials have toughened their language towards Iran in recent weeks, notably over the advancement of its nuclear programme and regional activities, but also the detention of European citizens in the country. President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that Iran was "the main strategic and security challenge" for France and Europe, with Iran nearing the point of no-return on its nuclear programme. "The situation of our compatriots held hostage in Iran is simply unacceptable; they have been unjustly detained for several years, in undignified conditions that, for some, fall within the definition of torture under international law," Jean-Noel Barrot told a conference of French ambassadors. Diplomatic sources said there had been no progress in talks with Iran on its detention of French citizens and that Paris wanted to make it clear to Iran now that the issue was now directly linked to progress in other dossiers. "I say to the Iranian authorities: our hostages must be released. Our bilateral relations and the future of sanctions depend on it," Barrot, whose country has accused Iran of state-sponsored hostage taking, said. In recent years, Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners, mostly on charges related to espionage and security. Rights groups have accused Iran of trying to extract concessions from other countries through such arrests. Iran, which does not recognise dual nationality, denies taking prisoners to gain diplomatic leverage. Barrot's comments also follow the arrest of an Italian journalist in Iran on Dec 19., the latest European national to be detained in the country. The EU has imposed several sanctions on Iranian officials and entities and the restrictions form one lever that the bloc has in its talks with Tehran. French, German and British diplomats are set to meet Iranian counterparts on Jan. 13, after a previous meeting in December. They will discuss bilateral ties, but also the possibility of serious nuclear negotiations in coming months to defuse tensions with Tehran, with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump due to return to the White House on Jan. 20.

Hamas stands by demand for end to Gaza war under hostage deal, as Trump deadline approaches
Reuters/January 07, 2025
JERUSALEM/CAIRO: Hamas stood by its demand on Tuesday that Israel fully end its assault on Gaza under any deal to release hostages and said US President-elect Donald Trump was rash to say there would be “hell to pay” unless they go free by his Jan. 20 inauguration. Officials from the Islamist group and Israel have been holding talks with Qatari and Egyptian mediators in the most intensive effort for months to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. The outgoing US administration has called for a final push for a deal before Joe Biden leaves office, and many in the region now view Trump’s inauguration as an unofficial deadline.
But with the clock ticking, both sides accuse the other of blocking a deal by adhering to conditions that torpedoed all previous peace efforts for more than a year. Hamas says it will free its remaining hostages only if Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is dismantled and all hostages are free. “Hamas is the only obstacle to the release of the hostages,” the director general of Israel’s foreign ministry, Eden Bar Tal, told a briefing with reporters, saying Israel was fully committed to reaching a deal. Hamas official Osama Hamdan, who held a news conference in Algiers, said Israel was to blame for undermining all efforts to reach a deal. While he said he would not give details about the latest round of negotiations, he reiterated the Hamas conditions of “a complete end to the aggression and a full withdrawal from lands the occupation invaded.”Commenting on Trump’s threat that there would be “hell to pay” unless all hostages were freed before the inauguration, Hamdan said: “I think the US president must make more disciplined and diplomatic statements.”Israel has sent a team of mid-ranking officials to Qatar for talks brokered by Qatari and Egyptian mediators. Some Arabic media reports said David Barnea, the head of Mossad, who has been leading negotiations, was expected to join them. The Israeli prime minister’s office did not comment.In one notable step toward a deal, a Hamas official told Reuters on Sunday the group had cleared a list submitted by Israel of 34 hostages who could be freed in the initial phase of a truce, alongside Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The list included female Israeli soldiers, plus elderly, female and minor-aged civilians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had so far received no confirmation about whether those on its list were still alive.
STRIKES KILL 10 PALESTINIANS
Nearly 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, according to health officials in the enclave. The assault was launched after Hamas fighters stormed Israeli territory in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Israeli military strikes killed at least 10 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, medics said, as the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory urged international donors to immediately provide fuel to maintain medical services. One of those strikes killed four people in a house in Beach camp in Gaza City, while the remaining six were killed in separate strikes across the enclave, medics said. The health ministry said hospitals were running out of fuel to operate generators and maintain medical services across Gaza because of Israeli restrictions. Israel has repeatedly said it facilitated the delivery of fuel and medical supplies to hospitals in the enclave, even in areas where forces have active operations. On Tuesday, the military said 240 Palestinians its forces had detained in a raid on Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza last month had provided “substantial intelligence.”The military released footage of the interrogation of a purported Hamas militant who detailed how militants “operated from the hospital area” and transferred weapons to and from it. Hamas and the health ministry deny any armed presence at the hospital.

UAE says it has discussed a potential role in postwar Gaza, but conditions remain unmet
Mostafa Salem, CNN/January 7, 2025
The United Arab Emirates has been in discussions about the possibility of playing a role in postwar efforts to rebuild Gaza, but its conditions for doing so have yet to be met, a UAE official told CNN. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has touted the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other countries as potential partners to help govern the territory after the war, but the UAE had previously said that it would refuse “to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip.”“While there have been many informal conversations taking place, parties involved have not aligned with the UAE preconditions for its involvement in any postwar effort in Gaza,” the UAE official told CNN on Tuesday. The official was responding to a report by the Reuters news agency that behind-the-scenes discussions between the UAE, Israel and the United States included the possibility of the UAE, the US and other nations temporarily overseeing governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza after the war. The UAE official told CNN its preconditions include a formal invitation from a “new, credible, independent” Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister, “a serious reform process” in the PA, “an explicit commitment to the two-state solution” from Israel, and a “clear leadership role by the US.”The UAE has long advocated for reforms within the PA, which is widely perceived as plagued by corruption, and has called for a change in its leadership. Mohammed Mustafa was sworn in as the PA’s prime minister in March, succeeding Mohammed Shtayyeh, who resigned in February. Israeli officials have publicly rejected the possibility of the West Bank-based PA playing a role in postwar Gaza. Reuters also reported, citing diplomats and Western officials, that UAE officials had suggested the use of private military contractors as part of a peacekeeping force in Gaza. The UAE official who spoke to CNN refuted this. UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed met with his Israeli counterpart Gideon Sa’ar in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. The Israeli foreign ministry said the two were set to discuss regional developments and bilateral relations. Emirati state news agency WAM said the two ministers discussed the “escalating humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip” and regional and international efforts to achieve a sustainable ceasefire. The UAE normalized relations with Israel in a 2020 agreement known as the Abraham Accords, and has maintained relations with it over the course of the Gaza war.
Destruction continues
As talks about the post-war governance of Gaza continue, so do Israeli attacks across the enclave. On Tuesday morning, at least 10 people were killed – seven of them in the central Gaza refugee camps of Al Maghazi, Al Bureij and Nuseirat, according to Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, and another three in the Tuffah neighborhood east of Gaza city, according to Al Ahli Baptist Hospital. CNN stringer video from Al Bureij shows people digging through rubble that covers the ground in front of destroyed buildings and in bedrooms with missing walls. Resident Yousef al-Shafie told CNN he and other residents woke when glass doors and windows fell on their heads during the overnight attack, and that they had been digging through the wreckage ever since. It took them two hours to determine who was alive and who was dead, he said. Lamees Abu Al-Rouz told CNN she was asleep when the strike hit, and that a concrete slab had fallen on her. “I started screaming for someone to come and help me, because this cement slab was on my forehead, and I was bleeding a lot. They took me to the hospital and gave me three stiches. Because of the heavy rubble I could not move and as you can see the house is destroyed,” she said, pointing to the damaged wall and rubble behind her. Gaza’s health ministry said Israeli attacks had killed at least 45,885 people since October 7, 2023, as of Tuesday. The ministry reiterated the strain hospitals in Gaza are under, with vital supplies like oxygen stations, medicine storage refrigerators and fuel for generators all severely impacted. Mohammad Al Sawalhi, Abeer Salman, Kareem Khadder, Lauren Izso and Hira Humayun contributed to this report. A previous version of this story cited the UAE official as saying the discussions were being held with the US and Israel in the lede. That has been corrected.

Erdogan tells Iraqi Kurdish PM that Turkey working to keep Syria secure
Reuters/January 7, 2025
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey is working to ensure that Syria's transformation over the last month will not bring new instabilities to the region, President Tayyip Erdogan told the Iraqi Kurdish prime minister, Erdogan's office said on Tuesday. Erdogan met Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of neighbouring Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region, in Ankara and the presidency published a photo of the pair shaking hands. The visit comes as Turkey has repeatedly said there is no place in Syria's future for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its extensions, after a rebellion last month ousted former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan repeated that message in the meeting and also "stated that Turkey attaches importance to the preservation of Iraq's stability and security, especially in light of the developments in Syria," the readout from his office said. Turkey has been calling for the YPG militia in northeast Syria to disband since Assad's fall. It regards YPG as an extension of the PKK, which is deemed a terrorist group by Ankara, Washington and the European Union. The YPG spearheads the U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast and played a key role defeating Islamic State militants in 2014-2017. The group still guards Islamic State fighters in prison camps there.

Jordan, Syria to combat arms and drugs smuggling, resurgence of Daesh
Updated 07 January 2025
DUBAI: Jordan and Syria have agreed to form a joint security committee to secure their border, combat arms and drug smuggling and work to prevent the resurgence of Daesh, Jordan’s foreign minister said on Tuesday.Western anti-narcotics officials say the addictive, amphetamine-type stimulant known as captagon is being mass-produced in Syria and that Jordan is a transit route to the oil-producing Gulf states. Jordan’s army has conducted several pre-emptive airstrikes in Syria since 2023 which Jordanian officials say targeted militias accused of links to the drug trade and the militias’ facilities. “We discussed securing the borders, especially the threat of arms and drugs smuggling and the resurgence of Islamic State. Our security is one, we will coordinate together to combat these mutual challenges,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safari told a joint press conference with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan Al-Shibani. Shibani, who was in Amman after visiting Qatar and the United Arab Emirates following the fall of President Bashar Assad, told Safadi that drug smuggling would not pose a threat to Jordan under Syria’s new rule. “The new situation in Syria ended the threats posed to Jordan’s security,” he said.Referring to the addictive amphetamine-type stimulant known as captagon, he said: “When it comes to captagon and drug smuggling, we promise it is over and won’t return. We are ready to cooperate on this extensively.”

International flights resume at Damascus airport
AFP & Reuters/January 07, 2025
Damascus: International flights resumed at Syria’s main airport in Damascus on Tuesday for the first time since Islamist-led rebels toppled President Bashar Assad last month. Excitement was in the air at the Damascus airport, where an AFP correspondent saw passengers arriving from Qatar chanting and cheering with some draped in Syria’s three-star independence flag. “Today marks a new beginning,” Damascus airport director Anis Fallouh told AFP. “We started welcoming outbound and inbound international flights,” he said, adding that the first flight was bound for Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates.
A Syrian Airlines flight bound for Sharjah took off at around 11:45 am (0845 GMT), marking the first international commercial flight from the airport since December 8, AFP correspondents said. Syria’s three-star independence flag, long associated with opposition to Assad and which the new authorities have adopted, was painted on the plane.International aid planes and foreign diplomatic delegations have already been landing in Syria, and domestic flights have also resumed. “I was afraid that the airport would stay closed, my visa was about to expire, but now I am very happy,” Amal Jeroudi, a 45-year-old Syrian, told AFP as she awaited her flight to Dubai where she was meeting her relatives.
She said airport employees during Assad’s rule “were condescending, but today they are very nice and welcomed us with a smile.”Syria’s state news agency SANA also reported that “the first Syrian plane after liberation” took off on Tuesday heading to Sharjah carrying “145 Syrian passengers onboard.”
On Tuesday, Qatar Airways resumed flights to Damascus after nearly 13 years, with three weekly flights scheduled. Fallouh confirmed that “the first incoming flight is a Qatar Airways plane.”Jordan’s state-run Petra news agency said a Royal Jordanian test flight had also departed on Tuesday for Damascus quoting Civil Aviation official Haitham Misto. The flight is “a message of support and solidarity” that “aims to assess the technical condition of Damascus International Airport” Misto said. A Qatari official told AFP last month that Doha had offered the new Syrian authorities help in resuming operations at Damascus airport. On December 18, the first flight since Islamist-led rebels ousted Assad 10 days earlier took off from Damascus airport bound for Syria’s second city Aleppo, in the country’s north, according to AFP journalists. Syria’s new authorities have made repeated overtures to the international community, with Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani making a string of official visits to Arab capitals including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Syria to receive electricity-generating ships from Qatar and Turkiye. Syria will receive two electricity-generating ships from Turkiye and Qatar to boost energy supplies hit by damage to infrastructure during President Bashar Assad’s rule, state news agency SANA quoted an official as saying on Tuesday. Khaled Abu Dai, director general of the General Establishment for Electricity Transmission and Distribution, told SANA the ships would provide a total of 800 megawatts of electricity but did not say over what period. “The extent of damage to the generation and transformation stations and electrical connection lines during the period of the former regime is very large, we are seeking to rehabilitate (them) in order to transmit energy,” Abu Dai said. He did not say when Syria would receive the two ships. The United States on Monday issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months after the end of Assad’s rule to try to increase the flow of humanitarian assistance. The exemption allows some energy transactions and personal remittances to Syria until July 7. The action did not remove any sanctions. Syria suffers from severe power shortages, with state-supplied electricity available just two or three hours a day in most areas. The caretaker government says it aims within two months to provide electricity up to eight hours a day.

Qatar and Turkiye dispatch two power ships to generate electricity for Syria
Arab News/January 08, 2025
LONDON: Qatar and Turkiye sent two power-generating ships to Syria on Tuesday to help address the energy crisis in the country caused by insufficient electricity supplies. Khaled Abu Di, the director of Syria’s Public Establishment for Transmission and Distribution of Electricity, said the floating power plants are capable of generating a total of 800 megawatts a day, which would increase the amount of electricity generated in the country by about 50 percent, state news agency SANA reported. Syria’s energy infrastructure was badly damaged during more than a decade of civil war in the country that culminated in the fall of the ruling Assad regime in December. The deterioration resulted in severe power shortages, with many areas receiving electricity for only two or three hours a day. Abu Di said efforts are underway to secure transmission lines to deliver the electricity generated by the ships. He added that his team is also working to repair dozens of damaged conversion plants and connection lines to get the national grid up and running again.

Syria Druze rebels say ready to join new national army
Agence France Presse/January 7, 2025
Two rebel groups from Syria's Druze minority said on Monday they were ready to join a national army after Islamist-led opposition fighters toppled president Bashar al-Assad last month. The new Syrian authorities face the mammoth challenge of rebuilding state institutions shaped by the Assad family's repressive five-decade rule, including the army and security apparatuses that have all but collapsed. "We, the Men of Dignity movement and the Mountain Brigade, the two largest military factions in Sweida, announce our full readiness to merge into a military body... under the umbrella of a new national army whose goal is to protect Syria," the groups from south Syria's Sweida province said in a joint statement. They added, however, that they would categorically reject "any factional or sectarian army used as a tool in the hands of the authorities to suppress the people, as was the case with Bashar al-Assad's army.""We as military factions have no designs or roles in administrative or political affairs," they added, calling for "civil and political work in a participatory manner that places the human being at the center of priorities". "It is our role to commit to protecting public facilities and ensure their stability until security is established in the country," they added. The new leadership last month unveiled a plan to dissolve the myriad of armed groups operating in Syria and integrate them into the military. Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa told Al Arabiya TV last month that "weapons must be in the hands of the state alone" and authorities would welcome "whoever is armed and qualified to join the defense ministry". The Druze, who also live in Lebanon, Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, make up about three percent of Syria's population, around 700,000 people. Sweida is the heartland of Syria's Druze minority. Beyond defending themselves from attacks in the areas where they live, Syria's Druze largely stayed on the sidelines of Syria's civil war that began in 2011. Many managed to avoid compulsory conscription. Residents of Sweida have long complained of discrimination and the lack of basic services.When Assad fell, the province had witnessed anti-government demonstrations for more than a year.

Germany pushing for EU to relax sanctions on Syria, FT reports
Reuters/January 7, 2025
Germany is leading efforts for the European Union to ease sanctions imposed on Syria during the rule of President Bashar al-Assad who was ousted last month, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. German officials circulated two proposal documents among EU capitals shortly before Christmas outlining suggestions for the main areas where the bloc's sanctions on Syria could be eased, the report said, citing two people familiar with the matter. The documents reportedly outline how the EU could gradually ease restrictions on Damascus in return for progress on social issues, including safeguarding minority and women's rights and upholding commitments to ensuring non-proliferation of weapons. The FT, citing an unnamed source familiar with the EU discussions, added that, like Washington, the bloc could make any easing of sanctions temporary to ensure that it could be reversed if necessary.
The German foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Earlier this month German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock travelled to Syria for a one-day trip with her French counterpart on behalf of the EU, where she met with the leader of Syria's new rulers, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Baerbock said during her visit that all Syrian groups including women and Kurds must be involved in the country's transition if Damascus wants European support.

US allows transactions with governing institutions in Syria despite sanctions
Timour Azhari and Daphne Psaledakis/Reuters/January 07/2025
DAMASCUS/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. on Monday issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months after the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule in an effort to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance.The exemption, known as a general license, also allows some energy transactions and personal remittances to Syria until July 7. The action did not remove any sanctions.
Syria suffers from severe power shortages, with state-supplied electricity available just two or three hours per day in most areas. The caretaker government says it aims to provide electricity up to eight hours per day within two months. The U.S. Treasury said the move sought "to help ensure that sanctions do not impede essential services and continuity of governance functions across Syria, including the provision of electricity, energy, water, and sanitation." A lightning rebel offensive brought a sudden end to decades of Assad family rule on Dec. 8. Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the advance and set up Syria's caretaker government, renounced its ties with Al Qaeda. But the U.S. continues to designate it as a terrorist entity. The United States, Britain, the European Union and other governments imposed tough sanctions on Syria after Assad's crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2011 spiraled into civil war. Washington previously authorized humanitarian support to the Syrian people by aid groups, the United Nations and the U.S. government as well as some economic activity in certain areas not held by Assad's government. While Monday's move "authorizes transactions with governing institutions in Syria ... even if a designated individual has a leadership role in that governing institution," it does not permit any transactions involving military or intelligence agencies. The Treasury defined Syria's governing institutions as departments, agencies and government-run public service providers - including hospitals, schools and utilities - at the federal, regional or local level, and entities involved with HTS across Syria. It also authorizes transactions in support of the sale, supply, storage or donation of energy, including petroleum and electricity, to or within Syria. U.S. sanctions on Assad and his associates, the Syrian government, the Central Bank of Syria and HTS remain in place, said the U.S. Treasury.
'SUPPORT HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE'
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the move showed goodwill toward the Syrian people rather than the new Islamist government. "The end of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal and repressive rule, backed by Russia and Iran, provides a unique opportunity for Syria and its people to rebuild," said Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo in a statement. "During this period of transition, Treasury will continue to support humanitarian assistance and responsible governance in Syria." Maher Khalil al-Hasan, the trade minister in Syria's caretaker government, on Monday said the country is unable to make deals to import fuel, wheat or other key goods due to strict U.S. sanctions despite many countries, including Gulf Arab states, wanting to do so. Syria faces a "catastrophe" if sanctions are not frozen or lifted soon, he said. Washington wants to see HTS cooperate on priorities such as counterterrorism and forming a government inclusive of all Syrians. Along with unilateral measures, HTS has also been on the U.N. Security Council al Qaeda and Islamic State sanctions list for more than a decade, subject to a global assets freeze and arms embargo, though there is a humanitarian exemption. Many diplomats acknowledge that the removal of sanctions could be used as leverage to ensure Syria's new authorities fulfill their commitments. Diplomats and U.N. officials are also keen to avoid a repeat of difficulties in Afghanistan after the hardline Islamist Taliban took over in August 2021 as U.S.-led forces withdrew after two decades of war. Banks were wary of testing U.N. and U.S. sanctions, leaving the U.N. and aid groups struggling to deliver enough cash to run operations and forcing the U.S. to issue sanctions exemptions.

Trump threatens to use 'economic force' to make Canada 51st state
Kelly Geraldine Malone/WASHINGTON — U.S/January 7, 2025
President-elect Donald Trump threatened Tuesday to use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state and doubled down on his tariff threats as he criticized Canada's military spending and trade with the United States. "You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security," Trump said, referring to the border between Canada and the U.S. "And don't forget, we basically protect Canada."In his first news conference since the certification of his election win, Trump said he will impose "substantial" tariffs on Canada and Mexico when he returns to the White House in less than two weeks. The president-elect said previously he’ll slap 25 per cent duties on imports from America’s closest neighbours unless they stop the flow of illegal drugs and migrants across the border. In November, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travelled to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in an attempt to counter Trump’s tariff threats. Canada subsequently announced a series of measures to beef up border security with a $1.3-billion package but Trump indicated he still intends to proceed with his tariff plan.Trump mused about that meeting with Trudeau during Tuesday's news conference and claimed repeatedly that Canada is subsidized by the U.S. The Republican leader said he asked Trudeau why Canada relied on trade with the United States and suggested the prime minister responded that he didn't know. "I can answer it. We are doing it because of habit and we are doing it because we like our neighbours, and we've been good neighbours. But we can't do it forever and it's a tremendous amount of money," Trump said. "I said that's okay to have if you are a state. But if you are another country, we don't want to have it," Trump added, suggesting Canada should become the 51st state. The president-elect also criticized Canada’s level of military funding and said he told hockey legend Wayne Gretzky to run for prime minister. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 7, 2025.

Trump says he would use 'economic force' on Canada
CBC/January 7, 2025
U.S. president-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday continued to threaten significant tariffs on other countries and said he would be willing to use "economic force" to join Canada and the United States together. "Canada and the United States, that would really be something," he said at a news conference in Palm Beach, Fla. "You get rid of the artificially drawn line and you take a look at what it looks like ... and it would also be much better financial security."Trump made the remarks from Mar-a-Lago, the day after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he will step down once the Liberal Party of Canada has chosen a successor. Trump has threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office on Jan. 20, unless the two countries do more to address border security. On Tuesday, he again spoke favourably about Canada becoming "the 51st state" and criticized American spending on Canadian goods. "We don't need the cars, we don't need the lumber ... We don't need anything they have," Trump said. "We have a right not to help them with their financial difficulties." He said he would not consider military force on Canada, but remarkably, declined to rule out such action to have the U.S. take back control of the Panama Canal and acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. "No, I can't assure you on either of those two. But I can say this: we need them for economic security," he said of the latter. Also Tuesday, Trump said he would rename the Gulf of Mexico."'The Gulf of America.' What a beautiful name."

Biden says 'the world is better off' because of Trudeau
CBC/January 7, 2025
U.S. President Joe Biden has issued a glowing review of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's time in office, describing him as a man who left the world, the continent and the bilateral relationship in a better place than he found it in 2015. Describing him as a friend, Biden said the U.S. has no closer ally and friend than Canada and "the same can be said" of Trudeau. Biden said Trudeau was the first foreign leader he spoke with after becoming president and that he spoke with Trudeau on Monday, after Trudeau announced his resignation, to pass on his appreciation for what they accomplished by working together. "We've tackled some of the toughest issues our nations faced in decades, from the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change to the scourge of fentanyl," Biden said. "We've stood together with the people of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression to defend our nations' most sacred value: freedom," the outgoing president added. "We have made generational investments to strengthen our supply chains and rebuild our economies from the bottom up and middle out." Biden said Trudeau "led with commitment, optimism and strategic vision," and that the bilateral relationship "is stronger because of him." "The American and Canadian people are safer because of him. And the world is better off because of him," Biden said. Biden's remarks stand in stark contrast to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's reaction to Trudeau's resignation. The incoming president used the occasion to once again suggest Canada merge with the United States. "Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State. The United States can no longer suffer the massive Trade Deficits and Subsidies that Canada needs to stay afloat. Justin Trudeau knew this, and resigned," Trump said in a post on the Truth Social platform. "If Canada merged with the U.S.," Trump continued, "there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!"

Trump announces $20B US investment by Emirati businessman
Will Weissert And Josh Boak/AP/January 7, 2025
WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a $20 billion investment for data centers in the United States by an Emirati company led by billionaire Hussain Sajwani, a close business partner of the Trump family.
The investment by DAMAC Properties in the United Arab Emirates is intended to highlight Trump's personal ability to attract new money for big projects. The announcement follows a pledge made last month by the Japanese billionaire investor Masayoshi Son, while at Trump's side, to invest $100 billion in the United States. Trump said at a news conference that he believed Sajwani made the commitment because “he was very inspired by the election and wouldn't do it without the election.” The president-elect emphasized his plans to get investments of $1 billion or more through the environmental regulatory review process quickly. Following Trump, Sajwani briefly joined the news conference and said: “It’s been amazing news for me and my family when he was elected in November.”
Sajwani's promised investment feeds into an existing boom for constructing data centers used in the development of artificial intelligence and expansion of cryptocurrency, as well as in other elements of an increasingly digital economy that relies on having greater sources of computer processing power. While Trump has sought to portray these announcements as a source of newfound energy in the U.S. economy, the $20 billion commitment is also a sign that wealthy investors close to Trump can profit off that relationship, given the already significant investment in new data centers. In October, the financial company Blackstone estimated that the U.S. would see $1 trillion invested in data centers over five years, with another $1 trillion being committed internationally. The commitment made by Sajwani could represent just 2% of the total expected domestic investment in the sector. Sajwani would gain data centers in the United States, which thus far have not been part of his company's EDGNEX data center portfolio. According to the company's website, it already has or plans to build data centers in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Spain, Thailand and Indonesia. DAMAC Properties is one of the top private developers in the skyscraper-studded city-state in the United Arab Emirates. The property developer has been a Trump partner. Under Sajwani, DAMAC built the Trump International Golf Club at a massive development in the city’s desert outskirts just before Trump first entered the White House. DAMAC also paid a licensing fee worth millions back to the Trump Organization, following a pattern the president-elect's company has used in developments both in the U.S. and abroad. There had been plans for another DAMAC development further in the desert that would have a Trump-named golf course. However, DAMAC later dropped plans for the golf course at the development. Also, discussions for a promised $2 billion in deals between DAMAC and the Trump Organization after his first electoral win in 2016 never materialized. Sajwani has said that Trump's initial election to the presidency helped increase the profile of his company. Since Trump’s re-election in November, Sajwani has been seen at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. He posted a picture standing between a seated Trump and billionaire Elon Musk at a New Year’s Eve celebration. However, the Trump Organization since has been involved with Dar Global, a Saudi-funded real estate firm that’s building a Trump-branded golf course in Oman and Trump projects in Saudi Arabia. There are plans for a Trump Tower in Dubai as well, though previous plans for a Trump Tower on Dubai’s man-made Palm Jumeirah archipelago fell apart during the city’s financial crisis that began in 2008. ___
Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.
Will Weissert And Josh Boak, The Associated Press

Hussain Abdul-Hussain on X App

https://x.com/i/status/1876621541515162080
#Lebanon Shia in the south burn tires in protest of #Hezbollah reneging on its promises to pay for reconstruction of housing units destroyed during its war on #Israel.
Hezbollah is not more immune to popular anger than Assad or any other tyrant.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on January 07-08/2025
Pope Francis Violates Catholic Teaching by Bearing False Witness Against Israel
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/January 7, 2025
Pope Francis has joined the chorus of blood libelers who have accused Israel of genocide, writing: "According to some experts, what is happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide." This indictment is totally false as a matter of fact, law and morality. The Vatican knows what genocide is. It perfected this crime against humanity during the Crusades, the Inquisition and the priest-inspired pogroms that led to the Holocaust.
The reality is that Israel has killed far fewer civilians in relation to combatants than any nation in history while fighting comparable urban wars, especially where Hamas combatants hide among civilians, precisely in order to induce Israel to kill as many civilians as possible.
By accepting Palestinianism and supporting the Hamas narrative, he is siding with the enemies of Christianity, the enemies of Judaism and the enemies of decency. I will not curse Pope Francis; the bible has already done so: "Now the LORD had said unto Abram.... And I will make of thee a great nation.... And I will bless them that bless thee and curse him that curseth thee."
In an act that flies in the face of the Christian Bible, the Vatican recently featured a nativity scene which laid the baby Jesus on a keffiyeh, thus accepting the false Palestinian narrative that Jesus was a Palestinian and not a Jew.
Since the end of World War II, the Vatican has tried hard to make up for its centuries of attacks on the Jewish people, including the Crusades, the Inquisition, priest-incited pogroms, and theological claims that the Jews killed Jesus. The Vatican's complicity in genocide during World War II took the form of Pope Pius XII's refusal to create a "crisis of conscience" among German Catholics by forbidding them from participating in the mass murder of Jews.
Since the death of Pope Pius XII, the Vatican has tried hard to make up for its sordid history. Pope Paul VI led the way by repudiating the allegation of collective Jewish guilt for deicide, with Pope John Paul II speaking of the Jewish faith as the ancestor of the Christian religion. In 1993, the Vatican, after too many years of silence, finally recognized the State of Israel, and over time, the relationships between the Vatican and the nation-state of the Jewish people improved.
Now comes Pope Francis, who has been afflicted with a bad case of "Palestinianism" -- an obsessive focus on Palestinian rights to the minimization of concern for far more deserving groups around the world. In an act that flies in the face of the Christian Bible, the Vatican recently featured a nativity scene which laid the baby Jesus on a keffiyeh, thus accepting the false Palestinian narrative that Jesus was a Palestinian and not a Jew.
The bible of the Catholic Church expressly states that Jesus was born a Jew in the Judean city with the Hebrew name of Beth Lechem ("House of Bread," Bethlehem in English). He was born there on what has now become Christmas, around the time of the Jewish celebration of Hanukkah. He was circumcised as a Jew on New Years Day. He preached as a Jewish rabbi in the Jewish area called the Galil (Galilee in English). He was crucified as a Jewish enemy of the Romans in Jerusalem. During his lifetime, he never heard the word Christian. He lived as a Jew and died as a Jew. He did not wear a keffiyeh. The Muslim faith only began 600 years after his death. It would have been more appropriate for the Vatican to lay the baby on a Jewish tallit (prayer shawl) and wearing a Magen David (star of David). The Vatican willfully violated their own teachings by falsely trying to present him as a Palestinian.
Much more seriously, Pope Francis has joined the chorus of blood libelers who have accused Israel of genocide, writing: "According to some experts, what is happening in Gaza has the characteristics of a genocide." This indictment is totally false as a matter of fact, law and morality. The Vatican knows what genocide is. It perfected this crime against humanity during the Crusades, the Inquisition and the priest-inspired pogroms that led to the Holocaust. Genocide requires an intent to destroy an entire religious, racial or ethnic group, without exceptions. It does not include acts of self-defense, such as those engaged in by the Israel Defense Forces following the massacres of October 7, 2023.
The Hamas claim that Israel has killed 45,000 Palestinians has now been debunked by several studies (such as here and here). This absurdly exaggerated figure includes thousands of Palestinians who died of cancer and other diseases. It includes Palestinians who were killed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad rockets and by Hamas's own murderous actions against fellow Palestinians who oppose its tyranny. It counts as children 16- and 17-year-old terrorists who have been recruited by Hamas to murder Jews. It includes as "civilians" people who directly participated in the murders and rapes on October 7.
The Hamas figures have turned men into women, adults into children and combatants into innocents. The reality is that Israel has killed far fewer civilians in relation to combatants than any nation in history while fighting comparable urban wars, especially where Hamas combatants hide among civilians, precisely in order to induce Israel to kill as many civilians as possible.
The Israel Defense Force does more to protect truly innocent civilians than any other nation in history.
The Catholic Church is a great institution that does so much good around the world. Its wonderful teachings have informed millions of followers to do great deeds. The current pope, a South American with "woke," left-wing leanings, is doing a disservice to this glorious tradition. By accepting Palestinianism and supporting the Hamas narrative, he is siding with the enemies of Christianity, the enemies of Judaism and the enemies of decency. I will not curse Pope Francis; the bible has already done so:
"Now the LORD had said unto Abram.... And I will make of thee a great nation.... And I will bless them that bless thee and curse him that curseth thee."
Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of War Against the Jews: How to End Hamas Barbarism, and Get Trump: The Threat to Civil Liberties, Due Process, and Our Constitutional Rule of Law. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
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Presidential elections for what?
Charles Elias Chartouni//January 7, 2025
Observers of the Lebanese political scene ask a legitimate question: what does the presidential election correspond to at a stage where institutional life is reduced to simulations and fakes, behind sordid power plays and hollow gestures that send back political life to relations of force and politics of Shiite domination and its multiple figures? The rule of law and its institutional issues serve as levers to a policy of domination that advances shamelessly and ostentatiously.
Following two and a half years of deliberate sabotage of the constitutional mandate, Shia fascism resumes the term at their own expense and seeks to short-circuit constitutional and consociative rules in order to control the vote, impose their candidates and display their responsibility in the framework of systemic crises and of the destructive war that undermined the very foundations of the Lebanese republic. They operate as if the institutions were mere transmission belts, with no clean consistency, whose role is reduced to granting fake legitimacy to a coup in progress.
The list of candidates, alone, attests to the unwillingness of the selection mechanism, the cunningness of the deliberations and the eminently undemocratic character of the electoral process. These are, in summary, extras co-opened by Nabih Berri and his deputies, and whose only merit is to their degree of allegiance to the power that runs the so-called National Assembly as if it were a reserved dominal territory.
Candidates have nothing democratic to the extent that they have no representative or deliberate character that would allow them to be validated on the basis of duly recognized electoral programs; their only criteria for eligibility is their degree of vassality. We end up wondering what would be the purpose of the so-called elections that have no other purpose than to enter into force reports and to bring about domination policies.
The plot of the current elections is to instrument constitutional mandates in the service of a putchist policy that seeks to undo the deleterating effects of the military defeat and renew with the strategy of domination that has been embedded by the Israeli counter-offensive. The control of a rumpy parliament, completely inferior to oligarchic coalitions, being the mandatory passage to rehabilitate political prerogative, to eradicate failed policies, to perpetuate the control over public policies and diplomacy, while knowing that none of the levers of public action can be justified at the crib of the rule of law and its criteria for investment. That being said, we are retracing the path that led to the disintegration of the Lebanese state, the cancellation of the social contract and the establishment of the country in the middle of a larvae civil war. What difference would it make if presidents repeat the same institutional blockades, redirect conflicts intentionally excluded from any exchange and consensus seeking to end perennial conflicts that have led to the collapse of democratic civility and the conflict entanglements of the last six? decades ?
The arduous tasks that await any candidate for the Supreme Judiciary are not the least in a completely deluded country that serves as an operational theater for conflicts by power, where extraterritorialities of all kinds evolve at the will of power policies and end up sitting in the seats competing and refractory para-institutional. This is namely the pregnancy of institutions, the attributes of sovereignty and the regalia functions of the state. Hezbollah is competing with the state, challenging its both historical and constitutional legitimacy in the name of religious heteronomy that is as normative as operational.
The institutional issues of the projected election are not sufficient alone; in the absence of international framework, the electoral process can be deliberately subverted and rigged. The real issue is far from institutional, it is a strategy to bypass the new, war-induced relations of force and recover the putchist dynamics that have been entrenched. Any policy of accommodation with Hezbollah is wrong on the real issues and will eventually make it impossible to rehabilitate the Lebanese state in a changing regional order.

Minorities in Syria: Prospects and controversies
Eyad Abu Shakra/Arab News/January 07, 2025
I am not a fan of the excessive use of the term “minorities,” let alone exploiting it to reshape nations based on external interests. However, political history across the globe has taught us the dangers of downplaying or ignoring the concerns of small or marginalized groups — whether based on sect, gender or other divisions. Such actions have, in many instances, provided a ready pretext for foreign intervention, leading to occupations, colonization or “protectorates.”Overlooking the concerns of small or marginalized groups has also contributed to the arbitrary redrawing of borders, the dividing of unified populations into several newly formed states and condemning them to decades — sometimes even centuries — of civil wars and separatist conflicts. Large political entities were historically built through conquest and the domination of smaller groups. The modern concept of the nation-state only emerged in 19th-century Europe. Yet, even there, democracy has struggled to resolve separatist tendencies, a problem known as irredentism. Today, with the rise of far-right forces and their alliances with separatist or isolationist movements in countries like Italy, established European democracies face existential threats to their identity, despite once seeming secure in their sense of national unity. In major Western nations, including formerly vast empires like Britain, Germany and Spain, the interplay between isolationism and migration has fractured the once-cohesive understanding of national identity. The issue of minorities has become an essential aspect of the world’s dealings with the new leadership in Damascus
In Asia and Africa, the challenges are similar.
Consider the plight of large and ancient peoples, such as the Amazigh of North Africa, the Baloch across South Asia, Arabs in Turkiye and Iran, the Kurds of the Near East and the Fulani scattered across the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa, from Senegal to Chad and Cameroon. All these groups, including Palestinian Arabs displaced by the Israeli project, are peoples whose unity was torn apart by colonialism, scattering them across newly created entities or turning them into global diasporas. This has given rise to crises and separatist movements that have redefined regional and international political issues.
The issue of minorities has, along with women’s rights, become an essential aspect of the international community’s dealings with the new leadership in Damascus following the fall of the Assad regime. Naturally, this approach has not been welcomed by many in Syrian and Arab circles, who see it as a form of imposition that undermines Syria’s sovereignty and questions Syrians’ ability to reach an understanding and coexist, ultimately building a progressive state for a people with one of the oldest and richest civilizations in the world. These circles are bothered by what they view as an arrogant Western approach toward the Syrians. The Syrian people, who struggled for freedom throughout more than 50 years of bloody tyrannical rule, have the right to enjoy their newfound freedom and sovereignty. There is no doubt that they deserve to decide their future themselves after being deprived of that right for decades due to the intersection of interests imposed by geography, balances of power and strategic regional and international interests. At the same time, those who accept international conditions for rebuilding Syria are not entirely wrong, but they must remain cautious of the apparent goodwill of international powers. This goodwill was absent when Syrians faced repression, torture, barrel bomb and chemical attacks, and displacement. The new Syrian administration is still in its early days and has a long road ahead of it. There is a vast difference between armed struggle and building a state and preparing the ground for national reconciliation.
There is no doubt that Syrians deserve to decide their future themselves after being deprived of that right for decades
The revolutionary efforts in Idlib achieved their liberation goals through armed struggle. However, the current challenge is uniting the country under the slogan heard across Syria: “The Syrian people are one.”The aim is to build a united nation for all Syrians, based on equality, mutual respect and citizenship, transcending differences in religion, ethnicity and gender. Accountability is crucial in this transition, so that the Syrian people can put the chapter of tyranny behind them. The process must be overseen by legitimate judicial and constitutional bodies, not military field courts — as seen in Iraq after the US invasion, when vengeance drove the so-called justice system that ultimately indicted both the guilty and the innocent. The new Syria is transitioning from a police state to a state of institutions that is part of the international community. This demands that its new leadership define its political interest in dealing with regional and global players whose political, economic and security roles cannot be overlooked.
Let us not forget: politics is the art of the possible.
*Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @eyad1949

Can Netanyahu maintain control after the war?
Dr. Ramzy Baroud/Arab News/January 07, 2025
Yoav Gallant, Israel’s notorious former minister of defense, has disappeared into obscurity. The man who served his country’s military for about 35 years, was in politics for nearly 10 and oversaw major wars, including the ongoing genocide in Gaza, has retreated from the headlines and political significance. In a letter announcing his resignation from the Knesset last week, Gallant accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who fired him from the Cabinet on Nov. 5 — and his replacement, Israel Katz, of endangering the country’s security. However, he kept his criticism largely focused on the issue of military conscription for Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community. Gallant’s refusal to offer an exemption to Israel’s Haredim had always been a source of tension between him and his domineering boss. The political weight of that issue seems to have been greatly inflated by all parties, each with a political purpose in mind.
Gallant wanted to signal to the more secular and nationalistic factions within the Likud party — the largest in Netanyahu’s ruling coalition — that he advocated for a fairer and more equitable Israel. Netanyahu, who heads the Likud, wanted to appeal to the more religious segments of the party and to his deeply religious coalition partners.
Considering Israel’s shift toward the extreme religious right, it was only natural for Netanyahu to ultimately win this round. Gallant made his resignation letter largely about the Likud and less about Israel itself. Netanyahu seems to have concluded that his only path to political survival is the continuation of the Gaza war. “My path is the Likud path, and I believe in its principles, trust its members and voters,” he wrote, linking his first vote for the party to a partnership in “Menachem Begin’s revolution,” while priding himself on remaining “loyal to the movement’s national and ideological path.”
Gallant’s sentiment could be understood in two ways: either as a way to seal his legacy before quitting politics altogether or, more likely, as the charting of a new political course that will allow him to compete for the leadership of Likud — and perhaps even the premiership.
Netanyahu understands this well and seems to have concluded that his only path to political survival is the continuation of the Gaza war and the expansion of the conflict to engage multiple parties. It is this expanded war that has allowed him to recover his pre-war approval ratings and keep his coalition partners satisfied. The Israeli prime minister’s strategy over the last 15 months of genocidal war has been consistent with his political strategy: achieving power and holding onto it. But the events that followed Oct. 7, 2023, have made his chances of political survival much slimmer.
Netanyahu has mastered the art of survival by exploiting his rivals’ weaknesses, using his power to emotionally manipulate the Israeli public with a mix of nationalistic, religious and personal discourse. This narrative often portrays Netanyahu and his family as victims of numerous enemies who have ceaselessly plotted his downfall, despite all the good he has done for the country. “Netanyahu’s victim mentality” has long been a topic in the Israeli media, even years before the war. It is a strategy he has used to defend himself in court against accusations of corruption and it continues to serve him. Even the arrest warrants issued against him and Gallant by the International Criminal Court last November have been used to feed the narrative that Netanyahu is being punished for simply loving Israel too much.
Even the master politician will struggle to keep the public on his side and his angry coalition partners in line. However, when the war ends, merely playing the victim card will no longer suffice. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to explain what transpired beginning on Oct. 7: the collapse of the security apparatus, the failure of the military, the lack of strategy, the severely weakened economy, the splintering of the nation, the killing of hostages and much more. Even Netanyahu, the master politician, will struggle to keep the public on his side and his angry coalition partners in line. In fact, his right-wing coalition is already on the verge of collapse. The joining of Gideon Sa’ar and his New Hope party in September may have breathed some life into it, but the constant threats from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir make the government unstable at best.
The strength of the government was tested on Dec. 31, when a decisive vote on the budget law sparked a public fight between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, almost leading to the latter’s removal. But the government remains intact simply because the war remains ongoing. The Gaza war, and the expanded conflict, have allowed Netanyahu’s ministers to push their extremist agendas without question, which ultimately allows the PM to stay at the helm a bit longer. However, none of this is likely to change the postwar scenario, in which the coalition is likely to falter, Likud may enter its own civil war and Israeli society will likely erupt in mass protests. It is then that coalition partners will become enemies and the likes of Gallant may return, offering themselves as saviors. What will Netanyahu do then?
**Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and author. He is editor of The Palestine Chronicle and nonresident senior research fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs. His latest book, co-edited with Ilan Pappe, is “Our Vision for Liberation: Engaged Palestinian Leaders and Intellectuals Speak Out.” X: @RamzyBaroud

Netanyahu’s testimony an embarrassment for Israel
Yossi Mekelberg//Arab News/January 07, 2025
For more than four years, since the beginning of his corruption trial on three cases of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, there was great anticipation for the moment Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would stand in the witness box and give his version of events under oath. Three weeks ago, that moment finally arrived and, predictably, there was no moment of epiphany for Netanyahu and no admission of the charges laid against him. There was not a hint of remorse, no sign of reflection and no acceptance that he could have done certain things better or differently. Instead, it was the familiar and defiant Netanyahu: always evasive, always the victim and never in the wrong, while always shifting the blame onto others — on this occasion, including his wife Sara. His behavior in court showed clear signs of narcissism, which is usually characterized by a constant oscillation from hero to victim mode.
The hero complex in him cannot understand why he finds himself in this situation while he is busy with a historic mission to defeat the enemies of Israel and its people, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, while single-handedly reshaping the entire Middle East. At the same time, he is the victim of his political opponents, the justice system and, generally, the “deep state,” who are conspiring to bring him down. Hence, for him, any move is legitimate if it helps to derail this unprecedented trial.
To be sure, what is being discussed in court is the legality of Netanyahu’s actions, not his morality or ethics, and it is for the judges to decide whether or not Netanyahu has broken the law, as the prosecution hotly contends. However, we are still entitled to express utter disgust at his behavior, which has already demonstrated that he has not a moral bone in his body, and stupendous lack of judgment that makes him entirely unsuitable to be in any position of influence, let alone leading the country. We are entitled to express utter disgust at his behavior and stupendous lack of judgment
After all, even he and his lawyers do not deny, for instance, that he received expensive cigars, Champagne and jewelry from the Hollywood mogul Arnon Milchan and the multimillionaire businessman James Packer. There is also hardly any dispute over whether Netanyahu discussed with John Kerry, then US secretary of state, the American visa status of Milchan, whom he likes to refer to as his “friend,” although it seems more of a transactional relationship than a friendship, while receiving presents from him.
If this is not a case of bribery, it is at least very murky, as few Israelis enjoy the privilege of the prime minister discussing their visa predicament with officials at the very top of the political pyramid. If he would not admit illegality, Netanyahu could have at least acknowledged inappropriate favoritism, but he did not. The Netanyahus — Benjamin, Sara and their eldest son Yair — are also known for being obsessed with the media and everything reported about them. Nevertheless, in his evidence in court, Netanyahu was dismissive of the charge that he was wheeler-dealing with media proprietors and offering a relaxation of regulations that would financially considerably benefit them, should they ensure more favorable coverage of himself and his family.
However, in court, Netanyahu played down the importance of at least one media outlet, a news website called Walla, and the claim that he had a corrupt relationship with its owners. Instead, in a less-than-convincing argument, he portrayed himself as a knight in shining armor dedicated to the cause of balancing a lefty-progressive media by encouraging the creation of more right-wing outlets to ensure that Israel’s public can enjoy a wider spectrum of opinion. No one in Israeli politics has been more obsessed with how they are portrayed by the media than the Netanyahus. No one in Israeli politics has been more obsessed with how they are portrayed by the media, new and old, than the Netanyahus. And for years they have been building an alternative media machine, not to widen the scope of the social and political discourse but to glorify themselves and smear their opponents.
To add to the bizarre saga of the Netanyahu family’s mission to remain in power indefinitely and obstruct the trial of the head of the family, all of a sudden Sara has seen fit to join their son’s self-imposed exile in Miami. So, she is staying thousands of miles away while her husband not only faces scrutiny in a trial that might lead him to a lengthy period behind bars, but when he has also recently undergone major surgery.
This seems rather convenient, considering Netanyahu’s suggestion in court that many of the requests for presents, or for the media to soften their criticism and sing the Netanyahus’ praises, originated from his wife. Evidently, there is a disturbing dynamic between Benjamin and Sara and, according to allegations in a recent episode of investigative program “Uvda,” it was the latter who was orchestrating the intimidation of a key witness in the corruption case against her husband and harassing the lead prosecutor in this case. This led Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara and State Attorney Amit Aisman to open an investigation into these allegations. Netanyahu’s trial is a source of national embarrassment, especially in the middle of the most consequential crisis in the country’s history, when Israel is embroiled in a war that has caused extreme suffering. The country has become hostage to a corruption affair that has now lasted more than eight years. Netanyahu and his lawyers have tried every trick in the book to prevent indictment and, when they failed to do so, the gates of hell were opened for the weakening of the judiciary, the smearing of the prosecution and its witnesses and, in recent months, the attempts to postpone Netanyahu’s appearance in the witness box. And now that he has finally begun to give evidence, he has been repeatedly interrupting the procedure with claims that the process must be halted while he attends to important state business, only for it to emerge that on one occasion, for example, he went on a PR tour of newly occupied Syrian territory. If we have learned anything from the first few weeks of Netanyahu’s evidence in court, it is that he is ready to continue to abuse power to ensure that his trial is never concluded and that his attacks on the gatekeepers of the democratic system will only further escalate as the evidence mounts against him. It is therefore for the judges to end the Netanyahu circus and accelerate the trial’s progress toward a conclusion.
**Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg

Will 2025 elections continue the incumbency backlash?

Andrew Hammond/Arab News/January 07, 2025
Last year was the biggest 12 months for elections in living memory, with billions of people going to the polls. However, 2025 will also be a key year, with its ballots shaping international economics and politics into the 2030s.The Middle East is heavily involved this year. Key ballots expected in the region include a parliamentary election in Iraq, Iranian local elections and a parliamentary vote in Egypt. Beyond the region, elections will be held across time zones and geographies, including Belarus in January, Ecuador in February, Australia on a date to be confirmed before September, Gabon and Bolivia in August, Argentina and Tanzania in October, and Honduras in November. But the most systemically important ones may be in the G7 nations of Germany in February, Canada before November and, in all likelihood, a ballot in France over the summer. Perhaps the key question is whether 2025 will be another year in which incumbents face the wrath of the electorate.
Regardless of time and place, voters tended to disrupt the status quo in 2024, including in the US and the UK, which saw the opposition Republican and Labour parties, respectively, win power. Meanwhile, established parties in Japan, as well as India and South Africa in the BRICS club, saw their electoral mandates slashed. While each country had its own unique issues, there were a number of common factors in what was one of the world’s biggest ever anti-incumbent backlashes. These included significant economic and political insecurity brought about by the pandemic, alongside inflation.
Regardless of time and place, voters tended to disrupt the status quo in 2024, including in the US and the UK.In 2025, the elections to be held in G7 countries may well bring about major change. Next month, for example, Germany faces a ballot that is likely to sweep Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the nation’s top job in a potentially era-defining moment.
To be sure, Germany has faced tough times before. However, the country is today facing what may be the broadest range of economic and political stress in the post-Cold War era — and at the same time as neighboring France is facing major uncertainty too.
The far-right Alternative for Germany, the party that Elon Musk last month declared to be the only one that can “save” the country, is currently second in national polls. It last year became the first far-right party to win a statewide ballot, in Thuringia, since the Nazi era.
The political star of the Alternative for Germany is therefore rising, even though it will probably not be part of the next German government. This is because other key parties have said, at least to date, that they will not be part of any coalition with it.
The party’s growing success underlines the fracturing of the nation’s polity. This has seen the breakdown of the traditional duopoly of power of Scholz’s left-of-center Social Democrats and the right-of-center Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, formerly led by Angela Merkel, which have been the twin pillars of German politics since 1945.
While there is a clear desire for change, the timing of February’s election may prove suboptimal for the German national interest. Although it looks likely that the CDU/CSU bloc, led by former corporate lawyer Friedrich Merz, will win the most votes, it will probably need one or two coalition partners. This may mean it could be months before any final coalition deal is agreed. In the process, the party’s reform program will be diluted.
Germany could therefore have a weak caretaker government led by Scholz for months after the election. During this time, it will face key international challenges, from the future of the Ukraine war to responding to potential economic tariffs from Donald Trump’s second US administration.While there is a clear desire for change, the timing of February’s election may prove suboptimal for the German national interest
In France, meanwhile, there is a growing possibility of new legislative elections in the summer. Last month, the fourth prime minister to take office in 2024, Francois Bayrou, officially announced a new government amid growing questions about whether President Emmanuel Macron will see out his final term of office to 2027. The primary cause of France’s 2024 turmoil stemmed from Macron’s huge, failed gamble in June, when he dissolved parliament much earlier than needed. He calculated that voters would back his centrist coalition. However, last summer’s vote saw the lower chamber fragment three ways, between the leftist New Popular Front coalition, centrists and the populist right of National Rally. There is still no clear-cut pathway out of this polarized legislature, so it is possible that Bayrou’s prime ministership may not last beyond June, which is the earliest time that Macron can call a fresh ballot.
Canada is also experiencing political change in 2025, after almost a decade of the Liberal Party rule of Justin Trudeau, who resigned as prime minister on Monday. Trudeau, a long-standing centrist ally of Macron, has become very unpopular.
With national elections required before November, several polls have put the Liberals more than 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives. So, Trudeau’s replacement as Liberal leader and prime minister will have their work cut out to stop Conservative Pierre Poilievre taking the top job later this year.
Amid the political and economic uncertainty 2025 will bring, the outcome of these high-profile G7 ballots is still not clear, despite the anti-incumbency trend. However, whatever their exact outcome, what is certain is that they will not just shape domestic politics and international relations, but also the wider global landscape in the decade ahead.
**Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.