English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 28/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Everyone, slave and free, hid in the caves and among the
rocks of the mountains, calling to the mountains and rocks, ‘Fall on us and hide
us from the face of the one seated on the throne and from the wrath of the Lamb;
for the great day of their wrath has come, and who is able to stand?’”
Book of Revelation 06/09-17/:”When he opened the fifth seal, I
saw under the altar the souls of those who had been slaughtered for the word of
God and for the testimony they had given; they cried out with a loud voice,
‘Sovereign Lord, holy and true, how long will it be before you judge and avenge
our blood on the inhabitants of the earth?’They were each given a white robe and
told to rest a little longer, until the number would be complete both of their
fellow-servants and of their brothers and sisters, who were soon to be killed as
they themselves had been killed. When he opened the sixth seal, I looked, and
there came a great earthquake; the sun became black as sackcloth, the full moon
became like blood, and the stars of the sky fell to the earth as the fig tree
drops its winter fruit when shaken by a gale. The sky vanished like a scroll
rolling itself up, and every mountain and island was removed from its place.
Then the kings of the earth and the magnates and the generals and the rich and
the powerful, and everyone, slave and free, hid in the caves and among the rocks
of the mountains, calling to the mountains and rocks, ‘Fall on us and hide us
from the face of the one seated on the throne and from the wrath of the Lamb;
for the great day of their wrath has come, and who is able to stand?
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 27-28/2024
Text & Video: The Nero of Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, Burns the Country
from His Hidden Bunker/Elias Bejjani/September 28/2024
Due to Their Failure and Narcissism: A Call for Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Al-Ra'i,
Maronite Politicians, Officials and Political Party Leaders to Resign and
Repent/Elias Bejjani/September 26, 2024
Text & Video: Iranian Terrorist Hezbollah Booby-Trapped Shiites Villages,
Cities, Institutions & Created a Landscape of Hatred and Deception/Elias Bejjani/September
24/2024
Israeli Airstrikes Rock Beirut, Target Hezbollah Command
US Did Not Have Advance Warning of Israeli Strike in Beirut, Pentagon Says
Who is Hassan Nasrallah? The leader of Hezbollah and his impact on Lebanon and
Israel
IDF strike targeted Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut
Nasrallah assassination attempt: Risks, consequences, and new opportunities for
the Middle East
Did Israel succeed in eliminating its number one enemy? - analysis
IDF strikes Hezbollah launcher used to fire at Haifa, targets Hezbollah
infrastructure
Canada booking seats on flights out of Lebanon as violence escalates
Israel-Hezbollah conflict: Why is Lebanon being attacked and will there be a
ceasefire?
Lebanon fears Gaza-like carnage as Israel ramps up airstrikes across the country
Israel-Hezbollah conflict: Why is Lebanon being attacked and will there be a
ceasefire?
Berri to Asharq Al-Awsat: Temporary Ceasefire Call Marks Victory for Beirut
Efforts
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 26-27/2024
Netanyahu didn’t flip-flop on ceasefire, saw text only on plane
Pentagon seeking more information before classifying Beirut strike as escalation
of war
IDF deploys more reserve brigades to North as military preps for cross border
ops.
Dozens Of UN Delegates Walk Out In Protest Ahead Of Benjamin Netanyahu's
Evocative Speech
Netanyahu to Iran at UN — 'If you strike us, we will strike you'
Gunmen shoot and kill aid worker in Gaza, charity and family say
Wrapping up mission, US troops will leave some longstanding bases in Iraq under
new deal
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on September 26-27/2024
Rape is Resistance and Beepers are Genocide/Daniel Greenfield/Gatestone
Institute/September 27, 2024
Quick, Angry Impressions on the Margins of War/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/September
28/2024
To Prevent Lebanon from Becoming Another Gaza!/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/September
28/2024
A War of Choice and a War of Necessity/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/September
28/2024
Hezbollah at the Finish Line/Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 28/2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on September 27-28/2024
The Nero of Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, Burns the
Country from His Hidden Bunker
Elias Bejjani/September 28/2024
The satanic, terrorist, and Persian-backed Hezbollah has turned Lebanon into a
ticking time bomb, with the Shiite communities bearing the brunt of its
destructive ambitions. Hezbollah’s reckless stockpiling of weapons and
ammunition in civilian areas has placed the entire country, particularly the
Shiite regions, on the brink of catastrophe. Israel, fully aware of these
explosive caches, has begun detonating them, resulting in devastating explosions
that are killing hundreds of innocent civilians.
Nasrallah, the criminal mastermind, has laced residential areas with death
traps, even in the neighborhoods he claims as part of his "Shiite stronghold" in
the southern suburbs, Bekaa, and the South. Israel’s strikes are igniting these
Hezbollah warehouses, and fires are engulfing the surroundings. As of today, the
death toll is expected to soar into the thousands, with many victims still
buried beneath the rubble, their lives extinguished by Hezbollah’s greed and
Iran's sinister influence.
Nasrallah, Lebanon’s Nero, may very well meet his end in this fiery chaos,
buried deep in his bunker as Lebanon burns above him. His downfall, however,
will not absolve the devastation he and his Iranian handlers have wrought upon
Lebanon, particularly the Shiite community that he falsely claims to protect.
Due to Their Failure and Narcissism: A Call
for Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Al-Ra'i, Maronite Politicians, Officials and
Political Party Leaders to Resign and Repent
Elias Bejjani/September 26, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134945/
"You brood of vipers! How can you speak good things when you are evil? For out
of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks." (Matthew 12:34)
Because silence in the face of truth makes one a silent devil, and because
refusing to acknowledge an illness only allows it to fester, we speak now with
anger, bitterness, and disappointment. The truth is crystal clear, known even to
children: our Lebanese Maronite leaders, both clerical and political—foremost
among them Patriarch Al-Ra'i—have expired in their roles. They have become mere
Iscariots, and betrayers who must step down and be removed from the picture.
With very few exceptions, these leaders are completely disconnected from the
suffering and hardships that Lebanon and the Lebanese people endure under
Hezbollah’s bloody and evil Iranian occupation.
Our Lebanese Maronite clergymen and political leaders are generally surrounded
by spies, opportunists, merchants, and mercenaries. They are weak and afraid of
those who are honorable, honest, and competent, preferring instead to fight
them. Their followers, castrated supporters and slaves within their so-called
political "parties," are nothing more than idol worshippers—blindly loyal and
foolish.
The vast majority of these leaders lack the basic qualities of leadership:
faith, honesty, courage, and vision. They have enabled the terrorist, sectarian,
and Iranian Hezbollah to control Lebanon, dismantle the state, and undermine all
its institutions because they are cowards, afraid to speak the truth, or take a
clear patriotic stance.
Here are some of the national crimes, grave mistakes, and sins they have
committed in the pursuit of their sickening visions, selfishness, stupidity, and
evil personal agendas:
1- They turned a blind eye to the fact that Hezbollah did not liberate the South
Lebanon (Security Zone); instead, it occupied it, transforming it into an
Iranian colony filled with weapons depots and tunnels for the Iranian mullahs'
arsenal. They distorted the truth, bore false witness, and committed the grave
sin of declaring that Hezbollah's armed terrorists, killed in Lebanon, Syria,
Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, and elsewhere while fighting Iranian wars and Jihad battles,
are martyrs—equating them with our own. They lacked the courage to boldly state
the truth—that Israel implemented UN Resolution 425 and withdrew from the South
in 2000 purely out of Israeli self-interest, as part of an
Iranian-Arab-international understanding (an Israeli blunder that brought
disaster upon itself)....Hezbollah did not liberate the South but rather
occupies it.
2-They abandoned the residents of South Lebanon, (security Zone) as well as the
South Lebanon Army (SLA) and its members and leaders. They lacked the bravery to
champion their just cause, succumbed to Hezbollah’s Jihadist rhetoric, and
failed to oppose the unjust and hostile labeling of these people as
collaborators and traitors. In reality, they are heroes and patriots of the
highest order, left behind in Israel without any effort made to ensure their
honorable return.
3- They cowardly accepted the lie, deceit, and hypocrisy that Hezbollah is
Lebanese, that it liberated the South, that it is a resistance force, that it
represents a segment of the Lebanese population, and that it speaks for the
Shiite community in Parliament. They lacked the courage to demand the
implementation of UN resolutions addressing Lebanon (the Armistice Agreement,
Resolutions 1559, 1701, 1680). Like sheep, they shamefully followed the foolish
heresy of the treasonous trinity: "Army, People, Resistance."
4-They betrayed the residents of South Lebanon, silenced the voice of God—their
conscience—and transformed into disciples of Judas, driven by a culture of
betrayal and the lure of silver coins. By national and moral standards, all
those who abandon the heroes and martyrs of their country and people deserves
nothing but curses, disgrace, humiliation, and isolation.
5-Today, as Lebanon faces destruction, displacement, poverty, crime, and chaos
due to the ongoing war between Israel and the terrorist Iranian Hezbollah, they
swallowed their tongues and hid like frightened mice in their holes, just like
the charlatan Hassan Nasrallah. They did not speak up to name things as they
are, to tell the world, the Arab countries, the United Nations, the Vatican, and
the Lebanese people that Hezbollah is a terrorist, Iranian, jihadist entity that
occupies Lebanon, dismembers it, and kills its people. Their cowardice and lack
of vision prevent them from demanding the implementation of UN resolutions
related to Lebanon under Chapter VII, the arrest and trial of all Hezbollah
leaders and fighters, and the severing of ties with their patron, the criminal
and terrorist Iranian rouge regime.
These Lebanese leaders, clerics, the Patriarch, the heads of the falsely called
Christian political parties, and the entire political Maronite -Christian class
failed to take a patriot stance during the ongoing destructive war between
Israel and the terrorist Hezbollah. They did not adopt and declar a unified
Lebanese solid stance against Hezbollah and its Iranian war agenda. Instead,
they cowardly continued their submissive path, appeasing, flattering, and
supporting Hezbollah, while regurgitating the foolish and dhimitude narratives
of “the Israeli enemy,” “the Israeli aggressions,” and “Israeli expansionist
ambitions.” Their list of stupidity, cowardice, and lack of vision goes on and
on.
Given all these acts of treason, which are only a fraction of their crimes, it
is imperative that all these failures, cowards, temple merchants, and Judases
resign.
*The author, Elias Bejjani, is a Lebanese expatriate activist
Author’s Email: [email protected]
Author’s Website: http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Iranian Terrorist
Hezbollah Booby-Trapped Shiites Villages, Cities, Institutions & Created a
Landscape of Hatred and Deception
Elias Bejjani/September 24/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134845/
There is no shed of doubt that the terrorist Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, is
the one that has mined and booby-trapped the Shiites areas in occupied Lebanon
and placed them evilly on explosive barrels. It drowned its Shiites communities
with illusions, myths, hatred, arrogance, worshipping death, while belittling
its opponents and labeling them as traitors. In this context we are sadly
witnessing the ongoing tragedies inflicted on the civilian Lebanese Shiites'
communities.
In the recent wave of violence, only in one day over 600 innocent Shiite
civilians were killed and two thousand inquired and thousands forced to abandon
their homes and livestock's in fear for their lives because of devastating
Israeli air strikes targeting Hezbollah's weapon caches strategically hidden
among populated areas in South Lebanon, beeka valley, Dahea district in Beirut.
This tragedy underscores a painful truth and shows clearly that the real
perpetrators behind the suffering of these victims are not only the Israeli
forces, but rather Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.
For decades, Hezbollah has turned Lebanese neighborhoods, mainly the Shiites
villages, cities and institutions into battlegrounds, placing weaponry in
schools, religious institutions, and even homes, endangering the very people it
claims to protect. This reckless strategy has turned civilians into collateral
damage in a conflict driven by Iran's regional expansionist and denominational
satanic ambitions.
Compounding this situation, recently Iran has increasingly distanced itself from
Hezbollah and Hamas, opting instead to appease the United States. The Mullahs
have publicly stated that they do not seek to engage in direct conflict with
Israel, declaring a shift towards cooperation with the U.S. This pivot reveals a
significant change in Iran's approach, highlighting its desire to stabilize its
position rather than escalate tensions because its main aim is to keep its
regime in power.
The continuous threats from Hezbollah and Iran have put Israel in a precarious
position, where it feels compelled to act in self-defense. The recent bombings,
while devastating, are a response to a longstanding pattern of aggression and
provocation. It is essential to recognize that the chaos affecting the Middle
East, including the tragic loss of life among Shiite communities, is a direct
consequence of Iran's expansionist policies and Hezbollah's militant strategies.
As Lebanon grapples with this ongoing crisis, it is vital to hold accountable
those who have chosen to weaponries their neighborhoods. The suffering of
innocents must be acknowledged, but so must the responsibility of those who have
perpetuated this cycle of violence.
The massacre that the people of the south Lebanon are being subjected
falls on the terrorist Hezbollah, which is made up of Lebanese and
non-Lebanese mercenaries, as well as their masters the Iranian Mullahs.
Hezbollah has booby-trapped and mined the south villages and towns with weapons
depots among the people in schools, religious, educational and governmental
institutions, and even inside homes. Yesterday, Israel blew up a large number of
these depots, killing hundreds and wounding thousands of civilian victims.
Terrorist Hezbollah, the enemy of Lebanon and the Lebanese, has kidnapped the
Shiites communities and taken them hostage by force and terror. Hezbollah is a
mere slave to an expansionist Iranian agenda that has lured Israel into waging
its destructive war on Lebanon in general, and on the Shiite areas in the south,
the Bekaa and the southern suburbs of Beirut in general in a bid to defend its
people and existence of the Jewish state..
What do Hezbollah and its Iranian masters expect from the state of Israel, while
they have been shamelessly, immorally and promiscuously promoting the idea of
throwing their state into the sea, killing Jews, while raising their children
on a culture of ignorance, barbarism, hatred, reverence, sanctification of death
and crime, and at the same time demonize who oppose their Iranian ambitions, and
labeling them as traitors.
The killing, assassinations and destruction that Israel is doing currently in
Iranian occupied Lebanon are caused by the policy and culture of the mullahs of
Iran, as well as the Sunni and Shiite political Islam, leftist, nationalist
groups, and merchants of the so called resistance and liberation.
In conclusion, Iranian occupied Lebanon will not be saved or restore is
sovereignty, independence and free decision making process before uprooting the
criminal Hezbollah, arresting and putting on trial its Trojan and mercenary
leaders, and implementing the UN resolutions related to Lebanon; The Armistice
Accord, 1559, 1701 and 1680, which gives the Lebanese state full control over
all Lebanese territories by its own forces, and disarming all Lebanese and
non-Lebanese militias. At the same time arresting and putting on trial all
Lebanese politicians, officials and clergymen who conspired against Lebanon and
helped Hezbollah to fully occupy Lebanon.hitting Lebanon but becoming a regional
catastrophe.”
Israeli Airstrikes Rock Beirut, Target Hezbollah Command
Asharq Al-Awsat/September 27/2024
The Israeli military said it had targeted Hezbollah's central headquarters in
Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday in an attack that shook the Lebanese capital
and sent thick clouds of smoke over the city. The news outlet Axios cited an
Israeli source as saying Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the target of the
strike and that the Israeli military was checking if he was hit. A source close
to Hezbollah told Reuters that Nasrallah is alive, while Iran's Tasnim news
agency also reported he was safe. A senior Iranian security official told
Reuters that Tehran was checking his status. Iran-backed Hezbollah's al-Manar
television reported that four buildings were destroyed and there were many
casualties in the multiple strikes, which marked a major escalation of Israel's
conflict with the heavily armed Hezbollah. Al-Manar's live feed showed search
and rescue teams scrambling over concrete and protruding metal, with a
correspondent for the TV station saying the attack had left several large
craters and damaged many surrounding buildings. The Israeli military said it had
carried out a "precise strike" on Hezbollah's headquarters which it said were
"embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahiyeh in Beirut".
Israel has struck the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, known as
Dahiyeh, four times over the last week, killing at least three senior Hezbollah
military commanders. But Friday's attack was far more powerful, with multiple
blasts shaking windows across the city, recalling Israeli airstrikes during the
war it fought with Hezbollah in 2006. In a televised statement, Israeli military
spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the central command center was embedded deep
within civilian areas. The strikes hit Beirut shortly after Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue Israel's attacks on Iranian-backed
fighters in Lebanon in a closely watched United Nations speech, as hopes faded
for a ceasefire that could head off an all-out regional war. Lebanese caretaker
Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the attack showed Israel did not care about
global calls for a Lebanon ceasefire.
SHARP ESCALATION IN CONFLICT
It was by far the most powerful attack carried out by Israel in Beirut during
nearly a year of conflict with Hezbollah. Security sources in Lebanon said the
attack targeted an area where top Hezbollah officials are usually based. The
conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated sharply this week, with
Israeli airstrikes killing more than 700 people in Lebanon. The escalation has
raised fears of an even more destructive conflict between the heavily armed
adversaries. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Netanyahu said: "As long as
Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice, and Israel has every
right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely."
"Israel has been tolerating this intolerable situation for nearly a year. Well,
I've come here today to say enough is enough," he said. Several delegations
walked out as Netanyahu approached the lectern while supporters in the gallery
cheered. Netanyahu's office said he would cut short his trip to New York
following the strike and would return to Israel on Friday. The United States did
not have advanced warning of the Beirut strike and US Defense Secretary Lloyd
Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart as the operation was ongoing, a
Pentagon spokesperson said on Friday. Israel says its campaign aims to secure
the safe return home of tens of thousands of people who were forced to evacuate
homes in northern Israel because of rocket attacks Hezbollah has been carrying
out in solidarity with its Palestinian ally Hamas, which is fighting Israel in
Gaza. This week's escalation has displaced around 100,000 people in Lebanon,
increasing the total number of people uprooted in the country by the conflict to
well over 200,000.
US Did Not Have Advance Warning of Israeli Strike in
Beirut, Pentagon Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/September 27/2024
The United States had no advance warning of an Israeli strike on Beirut's
southern suburbs and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli
counterpart as the operation was ongoing, a Pentagon spokesperson said on
Friday. "The United States was not involved in this operation and we had no
advanced warning," spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters. Singh declined to
say what Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Austin about the operation
and whether it targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Pentagon also
declined to speculate on whether the Hezbollah leader was still alive.
Austin and Gallant spoke as the Pentagon chief flew over the Atlantic after a
visit to London. Asked what Austin may have communicated to Gallant given the
Israeli strike's potential impact on US efforts to secure a ceasefire between
Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Singh declined to offer
specifics, but she said the defense secretary is always frank in his
conversations with his Israeli counterpart. "Look at just the engagements that
the secretary and Minister Gallant have had over the last two weeks, speaking
regularly. I think if there was any type of fracture in trust, you wouldn't see
those type of levels of calls and engagements occurring frequently," Singh said
when asked if the lack of advance notification by Israel indicated a lack of
trust. The Israeli military said it had targeted Hezbollah's central
headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday in an attack that shook the
Lebanese capital and sent thick clouds of smoke over the city. The news outlet
Axios cited an Israeli source as saying Nasrallah was the target of the strike
and that the Israeli military was checking if he was hit. A source close to
Hezbollah told Reuters that Nasrallah was alive, while Iran's Tasnim news agency
also reported he was safe. A senior Iranian security official told Reuters that
Tehran was checking his status.
Who is Hassan Nasrallah? The leader of Hezbollah and his
impact on Lebanon and Israel
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
Hezbollah, under Nasrallah's command, has frequently clashed with Israel, with
notable confrontations like the 2006 Lebanon War.
Early life and rise to power
Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, has led the Shia militant
and political organization since 1992. Born in Beirut in 1960, Nasrallah started
his political journey in the Amal Movement before joining Hezbollah in the early
1980s. Under his leadership, Hezbollah grew into a powerful force with
significant military capabilities and political influence in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s conflicts with Israel
Hezbollah, under Nasrallah's command, has frequently clashed with Israel, with
notable confrontations like the 2006 Lebanon War. Nasrallah’s leadership during
these conflicts has boosted his popularity, especially among those who view
Hezbollah as a symbol of resistance against Israeli occupation.
Despite the heavy toll on Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged with a narrative of
defiance and survival that Nasrallah has used to galvanize support. Recent
escalations and challenges. In recent weeks, tensions have escalated as Israel
continues targeted strikes against Hezbollah, focusing on its operatives and
infrastructure. Nasrallah has condemned these actions as acts of war, accusing
Israel of targeting civilian areas in Lebanon. He vowed retaliation, warning
that Hezbollah is prepared for a prolonged confrontation if necessary.
Strategic position and future threats. While Nasrallah projects confidence, he
also faces significant challenges, including military setbacks and internal
Lebanese opposition. Israeli officials, like retired IDF Colonel Kobi Marom,
argue that this is an opportune moment to strike at Hezbollah’s leadership to
prevent future escalations. Nasrallah’s cautious approach reflects a delicate
balance between military engagement and avoiding a broader conflict that could
undermine Hezbollah’s position.
IDF strike targeted Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah in Beirut
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
The IDF strike hit Hezbollah's central headquarters in Dahiyeh, Beirut, built
under residential buildings. Updated to reflect that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has
yet to be confirmed killed in Israel's strike.
The IDF targeted Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a strike on the
terror organization's central headquarters in Beirut Friday evening, the IDF
reported after witnesses in Beirut told Reuters they had heard multiple blasts
and saw clouds of smoke rising from the city.
Israeli officials suspect that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was in the
bunker targeted in the recent bombing, and anyone inside would struggle to
survive such an attack.
About three hours before the strike, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted
with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. A security
source told the Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that "the extent of the
destruction in Dahieh is enormous. Lebanon has reinforced all ambulances and
dispatched them to the scene." Reuters reported that Nasrallah was alive, citing
a source close to Hezbollah. Iran's IRGC-controlled Tasnim News Agency also
reported he was alive, and an additional Hezbollah operative has also stated
Nasrallah survived the attack. "Hezbollah's central headquarters was
intentionally built under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahiyeh in
Beirut as part of Hezbollah's strategy of using Lebanese people as human
shields," IDF Spokesman R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari stated in an evening address.
Hagari said that the targeted building was the epicenter of Hezbollah's terror
activities. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the time of the strike, was at the
Israel Air Force's (IAF) command and control center, where he monitored the
strike against Hezbollah's headquarters, the Defense Ministry stated.
Other senior officials, including IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Commander
of the IAF, were also present. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut his trip to
New York short and plans to leave for Israel Friday night on Shabbat, following
the IDF strike on Beirut that targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Following a situation assessment after the strike, the IDF stressed that it is
prepared in all offensive and defensive arenas. A senior security official told
army radio that anyone in the Hezbollah headquarters will not get out alive, and
they are closely following what is developing in Beirut. The IDF added that
there was no change in the Home Front Command directives. According to Israeli
sources, Israel informed the US of the strike shortly before, and Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu authorized the strike from New York.
The Pentagon later said that the US did not have advanced warning of an Israeli
strike in Beirut, and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli
counterpart as the operation was ongoing, Reuters reported. "After almost a year
of Hezbollah firing rockets, missiles, and suicide drones at Israeli civilians,
after almost a year of Israel warning the world and telling them that Hezbollah
must be stopped, Israel is doing what every sovereign state in the world would
do if they had a terror organization that seeks their destruction on their
border, taking the necessary action to protect our people so that Israeli
families can live in their homes, safely and securely,” Hagari said in his
address. In response to the Israeli strike targeting Nasrallah, the Iranian
embassy in Beirut released a statement on X/Twitter calling the attack "a bloody
massacre, adding that it represented "a serious escalation that changes the
rules of the game, bringing upon its perpetrator the appropriate."Successive
airstrikes The IDF targeted Beirut shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu vowed to continue Israel's attacks on Hezbollah. The southern suburbs
of Beirut were hit in successive airstrikes, Hezbollah affiliate Al Manar TV
reported. Southern Beirut is known as a Hezbollah stronghold, and the Israeli
air force struck the area last week, targeting 16 Hezbollah commanders,
including Radwan Force commander Ibrahim Aqil. In another strike in the southern
portion of the city, Israel eliminated Hezbollah drone unit chief Muhammad
Hossein Sarur. Many ambulances and civil defense vehicles arrived at the
scenes of several buildings that had exploded.
Nasrallah assassination attempt: Risks, consequences, and new opportunities for
the Middle East
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
The intent behind Friday’s strike on Hezbollah's central headquarters—aimed at
hitting Nasrallah—represents a regional shakeup. The strike on the bunker of
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is nothing short of a seismic event
in the Middle East. With Israel having shifted the rules of the game, what comes
next? The risk of a broader conflict has risen, but there are also opportunities
for a comprehensive settlement—everything now hinges on Hezbollah's response.
The intent behind Friday’s strike on Hezbollah's central headquarters—aimed at
hitting Nasrallah—represents a regional shakeup, increasing the likelihood of a
wider escalation while also creating chances for a comprehensive agreement.
A shift in the rules of engagement
First and foremost, the move signals a "change in the rules of engagement" in
the fight against the so-called axis of evil. The assassination attempt, whose
success remains unconfirmed, sends a clear message of Israeli resolve and
boldness to the entire region, particularly Iran. This is undoubtedly a
regionally destabilizing event. If the operation succeeds, it opens significant
opportunities in the battle against terrorism in the north with Hezbollah and in
the south with Hamas, as well as a chance to pursue regional agreements.
What happens next?
The IDF must now brace for various scenarios and their implications, both in
terms of defending Israel and continuing its offensive operations. The most
extreme scenario involves Iran unleashing Hezbollah and the Houthis, allowing
them to launch an extensive missile and drone attack on Israel’s home front. In
an even more severe scenario, Iran itself could join the conflict directly with
strikes from its territory, although this possibility is considered low. A
second, more plausible scenario involves targeted retaliation by members of the
Axis of Evil and other terrorist groups, which could lead to attacks from
multiple fronts, as well as spontaneous incidents in Judea and Samaria. The
central question is whether, regardless of the strike’s outcome, Hezbollah’s
leadership will stick to its hardline stance against Israel, continuing to tie
the organization’s fate to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, or whether it will
reconsider its strategy.
In response, the IDF has raised its alert level to the highest across land, sea,
and air defenses and is prepared for attacks should the situation deteriorate.
Additionally, the IDF has reinforced the Northern Command with two infantry
brigades to prepare for potential reinforcements in Judea and Samaria and, if
necessary, ground maneuvers in Lebanon.
Did Israel succeed in eliminating its number one enemy? - analysis
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah began his journey in the terror organization
during his school years in the city of Tyre. The fate of Hassan Nasrallah,
Israel's top target in recent years, is still unclear. The fact that Israel
struck Hezbollah's central headquarters while Nasrallah was there is a dramatic
development. First and foremost, Israel is making it clear that Nasrallah is
marked for death. Second, it demonstrates Israel's intelligence capabilities and
resolve. Third, Israel shows that it has no red lines in its battle against
Hezbollah—every figure and every place where Hezbollah operates will be targeted
decisively. The strike was carried out by the Israeli air force’s 119th “Bat”
Squadron, using an F-16i aircraft known as “Sufa” (Storm) in the IAF. The planes
dropped tons of munitions. Israel conducted the bombing while Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu was in New York, on American soil. Hassan Nasrallah, at 64,
has been Hezbollah’s leader for four decades and is one of Israel’s most
challenging adversaries in recent decades. He is closely aligned with Iran, and
although he didn’t find Hezbollah, he has shaped the organization in his image.
Nasrallah began his journey in the organization during his school years in the
city of Tyre. He frequented the main mosque, drawing the attention of preacher
Muhammad al-Gharawi, who was impressed by Nasrallah’s intelligence and interest
in theological studies. Al-Gharawi recommended him to Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir
al-Sadr, a leading figure in the Shiite seminaries in Najaf, Iraq. After
completing high school about a year later, Nasrallah moved to Najaf to start his
studies.
Formation of Hezbollah
There, he met al-Sadr, who placed him under the mentorship of Abbas al-Musawi, a
Lebanese student from the Beqaa Valley who later became a Hezbollah leader. At
just 16, Nasrallah formed a deep bond with al-Musawi, whose teachings
significantly shaped his worldview. Following al-Musawi’s assassination,
Nasrallah was appointed as his successor. At the time, Israeli officials
underestimated the young leader’s potential to surpass his predecessors, turning
Hezbollah into a far more powerful and dangerous organization than before.
IDF strikes Hezbollah launcher used to fire at Haifa,
targets Hezbollah infrastructure
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
Earlier on Friday, the military said ten rockets had been fired from Lebanon at
Haifa and the surrounding area, with some being intercepted and others impacting
in open areas. Israel Air Force jets struck the Hezbollah launcher which was
used to fire rockets at Haifa and the city's bayside suburbs earlier on Friday,
the military said later in the day. Earlier on Friday, the military said ten
rockets had been fired from Lebanon at Haifa and the surrounding area, with some
being intercepted and others impacting in open areas. The military added that it
had struck additional targets, among which were Hezbollah military
infrastructure and terror squads in various areas of southern Lebanon. This
comes amid a surge in IDF strikes in Lebanon and an escalation in Israel's
North. Late on Thursday, the military said it had struck some 220 terror targets
throughout Lebanon, including weapons storage facilities and ready-to-fire
launchers. In addition, on Thursday, the military confirmed it had eliminated
Hezbollah's drone unit chief, Muhammad Hossein Sarur, in a precise strike. Sarur
oversaw numerous drone and missile attacks on Israeli territory.
Canada booking seats on flights out of Lebanon as
violence escalates
Mia Rabson/The Canadian Press/September 27, 2024
OTTAWA — Global Affairs Canada began booking blocks of seats on the few
remaining commercial flights leaving Lebanon on Friday as it issued another
urgent plea for any Canadians in the country to leave immediately. "Canadians
need to leave now and we are helping with that," Foreign Affairs Minister
Mélanie Joly said in a statement on X late Friday afternoon. "Canada has secured
seats for Canadians on the limited commercial flights available. If a seat is
available, please take it." Passengers will pay for the flights themselves, but
Joly said loans are available for those who need financial assistance. Joly and
Defence Minister Bill Blair have been asking Canadians in Lebanon to leave for
months as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalates. On Thursday, Blair
said there were still many commercial flight options available, but by Friday
those were quickly filling up.
Global Affairs Canada is taking the step of pre-booking seats to try to help as
many Canadians as possible. The flights could be going to any destination, and
passengers would be responsible for finding their own way to Canada. Joly said
earlier this week it's believed about 45,000 Canadians were in Lebanon, even
though only about half that number have registered officially with the embassy
in Beirut.Canadians in Lebanon are asked to use the email [email protected]
to get information and secure one of the available seats. Joly said Canadians
should register with the embassy in Beirut and say they want help leaving
Lebanon. The federal government and the military have been working on plans for
a possible evacuation of Canadian citizens from Lebanon for months, but the
government is urging people to leave on their own before that is needed.
Airlines have begun cancelling flights after an escalation of airstrikes by the
Israeli military. Lebanon's health ministry said Friday more than 720 people
have been killed in the last week in airstrikes that Israel said are targeting
Hezbollah's military capabilities to stop its airstrikes into northern Israel.
The most powerful strikes yet destroyed six buildings in suburban Beirut on
Friday as the Israeli military said it struck the central headquarters of
Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut short a visit to the
United Nations and flew back to Israel after vowing before the General Assembly
that Israel's campaign against Hezbollah would continue despite calls for a
ceasefire from allies including the United States and Canada. All G7 nations,
along with Australia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates jointly asked
Israel and Hezbollah for a 21-day ceasefire to allow for a diplomatic solution
to the war. Joly said she spoke with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati Friday
and that "there must be no war" in Lebanon. "Civilians must be protected and we
need an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah."
Israel-Hezbollah conflict: Why is Lebanon being attacked
and will there be a ceasefire?
Albert Toth/The Independent/September 27/2024
Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate as Israel ramps up its assault
on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Beginning with a major bombardment on 23
September, Lebanon has now experienced its deadliest attack since the end of the
1975 - 1990 Civil War, with over 90,000 civilians displaced from their homes.
Israel has called the bombardment a “new phase” of its war on Gaza, striking
more than 1,000 targets in Lebanon which it says were Hezbollah strongholds or
military facilities in homes. Since the 7 October Hamas attack where over 240
Israeli hostages were taken, Hezbollah has been striking Israel from Lebanon on
the country’s northern border in support of Hamas. Israeli forces have continued
to respond with strikes on the paramilitary group which regularly fired missiles
and rockets to intercept military technology like drones or tanks. But the
massive bombing campaign by Israel marks a major escalation in the exchanges –
one which the international community worries could lead to all-out war in the
Middle East. It comes as the country also continues its military action in Gaza,
which has now killed over 41,000 Palestinians.
Why is Israel attacking Lebanon?
Israel says it is attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in a bid to return its
citizens who have been displaced from the north by Hezbollah attacks. The
country’s officials say that 65,000 Israeli citizens have been evacuated due to
conflict on the border.
Speaking in the days after the initial wave of attacks, Defence Minister Yoav
Gallant said Israel would deploy renewed “forces, resources and energy” to the
northern region in its campaign against Hezbollah. “Today was a masterpiece,” he
later added, “this was the worst week Hezbollah has had since its establishment,
and the results speak for themselves.”Hezbollah, a proscribed terrorist group in
the UK, was formed in 1982 but gained significant military power in the 2006
Lebanon War against Israel. Its stated objective is to drive Israeli forces away
from southern Lebanon. The group is aligned with Iran, which is understood to
provide most of its funding. Hezbollah’s military wing is sophisticated and
thought to be about the strength of a medium-sized army, stronger than Lebanon’s
own forces. Israel’s heightened assault on the group has pulled civilians into
its wake, killing an estimated 620 and injuring nearly 2,000. Wednesday 25
September saw Hezbollah aim a long-range missile at Israel’s capital Tel Aviv,
the deepest into the country the group has attempted to attack. On the same day,
Israel targeted mountains north of Lebanon’s capital Beirut for the first time
in the war. The country’s forces are now reportedly preparing for a possible
ground operation. While the military has said in recent days that it does not
have plans for an invasion, spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told
reporters: “The army is in full readiness, and we will do whatever is necessary
to bring back home all our citizens to the northern border safely.”
Could other countries become involved?
A ground invasion of Lebanon would mark a major escalation in the conflict,
likely with serious international repercussions. The United States has already
announced it would deploy additional troops to the area, with 40,000 already in
the region. With its close ties to Iran, a direct assault on Hezbollah runs the
risk of drawing the country – a long-time opponent of Israel – into the
conflict. Tensions already reached a high point in April when Iran launched a
drone and missile attack on Israeli targets in April, responding to the
country’s bombing of part of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. Israel
responded in turn with a series of retaliatory strikes on Iranian military
sites, with little further conflict between the two nations reported since.
Although it has never revealed its nuclear weapon status, Israel is thought to
hold an arsenal of 90 nuclear warheads. Iran is not believed to be nuclear-armed
but resumed its nuclear programme after limits were lifted by former US
president Donald Trump in 2018. The UK has now joined the US, France and
other allies in calling for a 21-day temporary ceasefire between Israel and
Hezbollah. The joint statement reads: “It is time for a settlement on the
Israel-Lebanon border that ensures safety and security to enable civilians to
return to their homes. “The exchange of fire since 7 October, and in particular
over the past two weeks, threatens a much broader conflict, and harm to
civilians.”But Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, due to address world
leaders at the UN’s General Assembly, has ruled out the deal. “There will be no
ceasefire in the north,” a spokesperson said, “we will continue to fight against
the terrorist organization Hezbollah with all our might until victory and the
safe return of the residents of the north to their homes.”Speaking ahead of the
assembly, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that the world “cannot
afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.” Lebanese officials have also called for
a ceasefire and suggested they will involve their own forces if Israel
undertakes a ground invasion. Speaking to Sky News, health minister Firass Abiad
said that Israeli strikes in the country are causing “carnage”. “We’re already
at war - this is not just an escalation, we are already at war,” he added. “If
Israel uses these very big and strong bombs to target civilian areas, as they
have been doing, then yes, the numbers could reach catastrophic – even more
catastrophic – than what we see now.”But Israeli strikes on targets in Lebanon
continue, with 75 attacks reported on Wednesday. And while Israel and Hezbollah
have both advocated for de-escalation in the region, both maintain their attacks
and threats.
Lebanon fears Gaza-like carnage as Israel ramps up
airstrikes across the country
Kareem Chehayeb And Zeina Karam/September 27, 2024
When she first heard about the evacuation warnings Israel was sending to
residents of Lebanon, Aline Naser’s thoughts immediately turned to Gaza. For the
past year, the 26-year-old Beirut resident has been following with horror the
reports about besieged Palestinians in the Gaza Strip ordered to move from one
place to the other, fleeing to “humanitarian zones” only to be bombed and
ordered to leave again. The Israeli calls for Lebanese citizens to evacuate
ahead of a widening air campaign, delivered via mobile phone alerts, calls and
leaflets this week, seemed chillingly familiar. “It’s definitely something on
the back of my mind, and we don’t really know where exactly is safe,” she said.
Almost a year after the start of its war in Gaza, Israel has turned its focus on
Lebanon, significantly ratcheting up its campaign against its archenemy
Hezbollah. Among many in Lebanon, there is fear that Israel’s military
operations in Lebanon would follow the same Gaza playbook: Evacuation orders,
mass displacement and overwhelming airstrikes. Israel says its strikes target
Hezbollah weapons sites and militants. There are key differences between Gaza
and Lebanon and how Israel has so far conducted its operations, which it says
aim to push back Hezbollah from the border so that tens of thousands of Israelis
displaced by Hezbollah's rocket attacks can return to their homes. Although it
has said it is preparing for a possible ground operation, Israel has so far not
sent troops into Lebanon.
Still, there are fears that Israel’s actions in Gaza, including the use of
overwhelming and what rights groups and the United Nations have described as
disproportionate force, would be repeated in Lebanon. Top Israeli officials have
threatened to repeat the destruction of Gaza in Lebanon if the Hezbollah fire
continues. On Monday, Israel struck 1,600 targets across Lebanon, killing 492
people and wounding 1,645, and causing a massive wave of displacement as
thousands fled from south Lebanon north. It was a staggering one-day toll that
shocked a nation used to war. It was by far the deadliest barrage since the
monthlong 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, when an estimated 1,000 people in Lebanon
were killed.
Throughout the day, the Israeli military sent warnings to residents to
immediately evacuate in anticipation of the strikes and to stay away from places
where Hezbollah stores weapons — something most would have no way of knowing.
“Please get out of harm’s way now,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said in a recorded message. “Once our operation is finished, you can come back
safely to your homes.” Israel’s evacuation orders have been a central part of
its military campaign in Gaza for the past year. In the first week after
launching war, Israel ordered 1.1 million civilians in the Gaza Strip to
relocate from the north to the south, sowing confusion and fear in the
overcrowded enclave. Since then, the Israeli military has issued dozens of
evacuation orders calling on Palestinians to evacuate to Israeli-designated
"humanitarian zones.” Israeli officials say they are targeting Hamas militants
who have embedded themselves among the population. Israel’s campaign in Gaza has
killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, according to health officials in Gaza. The
Health Ministry, part of the territory’s Hamas government, does not
differentiate between civilians and combatants, but says that just over half the
dead have been women and children.”With Gaza's borders sealed, residents of the
crammed territory are trapped with nowhere to go, whereas in Lebanon, those
fleeing Israeli strikes have been able to move to safer areas. Thousands have
fled to neighboring Syria, while others have left through the country’s airport.
A second front for Israel
Hezbollah started firing rockets on Israel in support of Gaza on Oct. 8, a day
after Hamas militants launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, killing some
1,200 people and abducting another 250. Since then, the two sides have been
engaged in cross border strikes that have gradually escalated and displaced tens
of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. Many Lebanese have been
following the growing hostilities with a mixture of nonchalance and dread,
hoping they would remain contained. Lebanon has been in the throes of an
economic meltdown since 2019 and can ill afford another devastating war with
Israel. Hostilities escalated dramatically last week when thousands of
explosives hidden in pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah detonated,
killing dozens of people and leaving thousands, including many civilians, with
severe injuries to the eyes, face and limbs. Israel is widely believed to be
behind the attack. Israel has also killed several top Hezbollah commanders in
Beirut. Meanwhile, intensifying Hezbollah barrages have wounded several people
in Israel. As the region appeared to be teetering toward another all-out war,
Jana Bsat, 25, who works for a media analysis company in Beirut, said she now
has a bag packed, ready for immediate evacuation. She feels it’s only a matter
of time. “It feels surreal, to be honest. We heard about what was happening in
Gaza and now we’re experiencing it for ourselves,” she said. “I am in disgust of
all this fear-mongering and psychological torture,” she said, adding: “But then
you remember, it’s all part of a warfare strategy and it’s not going to stop
anytime soon.”
Lebanon is not Gaza
While Israel’s actions in Lebanon may have echoes of Gaza, the conflicts are
different. In Gaza, Israel’s goal is the complete destruction of Hamas, whereas
Israel’s stated goal in Lebanon is to push Hezbollah away from its border.
Whereas Hamas rules Gaza, Hezbollah is a powerful militia with enormous
influence inside Lebanon, and has representatives in the country's parliament
and government. In 2006, Israel flattened entire Beirut neighborhoods and bombed
Lebanon's only international airport as well as key infrastructure, including
bridges and power stations. By contrast, its current campaign seems to be, for
the large part, targeting Hezbollah, although many civilians have also been
killed. Unlike Gaza, Lebanon is also a mixed tapestry of political and religious
groups, including Christian and Sunni-majority areas where there is significant
opposition to the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah.
Ali Safa, a 30-year-old interior designer who fled to Beirut from south Lebanon
with his family this week, said he isn’t worried about the Gaza scenario being
repeated in Lebanon. “Gaza is an open prison, it is besieged. Lebanon is much
larger, it is not encircled. And it has Hezbollah, which is a much bigger force,
much better-equipped than Hamas,” he said. U.N. Secretary General Antonio
Guterres, speaking at the United Nations Wednesday, said the world “cannot
afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
Frayed nerves
Whether the current hostilities will expand into an all-out war or whether
Israel will launch a ground invasion remains to be seen. Israel’s army chief
said Wednesday that preparations were underway for a possible ground operation.
Many in Lebanon say they are haunted by the nonstop churn of horrifying images
from Gaza over the past year, fearing the same scenario in Lebanon. For several
months, low-flying Israeli fighter jets have launched sonic booms over Lebanon,
rattling windows and terrifying residents. More recently, the buzzing sound of
Israeli military drones in Lebanese skies have added to the anxiety. Some have
gotten used to it. At a funeral for a Hezbollah commander recently where a few
hundred people gathered, hardly anyone flinched when low-flying Israeli planes
caused a thundering boom that shook the ground. Bsat said at some point she,
too, got used to hearing sonic booms that made the windows in her house shake.
"The drones I also got used to and now, unfortunately, the bombing,” she said
via Whatsapp. “I’ve come to terms with reality, but my hands still can’t stop
shaking as I’m writing this,” she said. “I’m still dreading what is going to
happen here.”
Israel-Hezbollah conflict: Why is Lebanon being attacked
and will there be a ceasefire?
Albert Toth/The Independent/September 27/2024
Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate as Israel ramps up its assault
on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Beginning with a major bombardment on 23
September, Lebanon has now experienced its deadliest attack since the end of the
1975 - 1990 Civil War, with over 90,000 civilians displaced from their homes.
Israel has called the bombardment a “new phase” of its war on Gaza, striking
more than 1,000 targets in Lebanon which it says were Hezbollah strongholds or
military facilities in homes. Since the 7 October Hamas attack where over 240
Israeli hostages were taken, Hezbollah has been striking Israel from Lebanon on
the country’s northern border in support of Hamas. Israeli forces have continued
to respond with strikes on the paramilitary group which regularly fired missiles
and rockets to intercept military technology like drones or tanks. But the
massive bombing campaign by Israel marks a major escalation in the exchanges –
one which the international community worries could lead to all-out war in the
Middle East. It comes as the country also continues its military action in Gaza,
which has now killed over 41,000 Palestinians.
Why is Israel attacking Lebanon?
Israel says it is attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in a bid to return its
citizens who have been displaced from the north by Hezbollah attacks. The
country’s officials say that 65,000 Israeli citizens have been evacuated due to
conflict on the border. Speaking in the days after the initial wave of attacks,
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel would deploy renewed “forces,
resources and energy” to the northern region in its campaign against Hezbollah.
“Today was a masterpiece,” he later added, “this was the worst week Hezbollah
has had since its establishment, and the results speak for
themselves.”Hezbollah, a proscribed terrorist group in the UK, was formed in
1982 but gained significant military power in the 2006 Lebanon War against
Israel. Its stated objective is to drive Israeli forces away from southern
Lebanon. The group is aligned with Iran, which is understood to provide most of
its funding. Hezbollah’s military wing is sophisticated and thought to be about
the strength of a medium-sized army, stronger than Lebanon’s own forces.
Israel’s heightened assault on the group has pulled civilians into its wake,
killing an estimated 620 and injuring nearly 2,000. Wednesday 25 September saw
Hezbollah aim a long-range missile at Israel’s capital Tel Aviv, the deepest
into the country the group has attempted to attack. On the same day, Israel
targeted mountains north of Lebanon’s capital Beirut for the first time in the
war. The country’s forces are now reportedly preparing for a possible ground
operation. While the military has said in recent days that it does not have
plans for an invasion, spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters:
“The army is in full readiness, and we will do whatever is necessary to bring
back home all our citizens to the northern border safely.”
Could other countries become involved?
A ground invasion of Lebanon would mark a major escalation in the conflict,
likely with serious international repercussions. The United States has already
announced it would deploy additional troops to the area, with 40,000 already in
the region.
With its close ties to Iran, a direct assault on Hezbollah runs the risk of
drawing the country – a long-time opponent of Israel – into the conflict.
Tensions already reached a high point in April when Iran launched a drone and
missile attack on Israeli targets in April, responding to the country’s bombing
of part of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. Israel responded in turn with
a series of retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites, with little further
conflict between the two nations reported since. Although it has never revealed
its nuclear weapon status, Israel is thought to hold an arsenal of 90 nuclear
warheads. Iran is not believed to be nuclear-armed but resumed its nuclear
programme after limits were lifted by former US president Donald Trump in 2018.
The UK has now joined the US, France and other allies in calling for a 21-day
temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The joint statement reads: “It
is time for a settlement on the Israel-Lebanon border that ensures safety and
security to enable civilians to return to their homes. “The exchange of fire
since 7 October, and in particular over the past two weeks, threatens a much
broader conflict, and harm to civilians.”But Israeli prime minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, due to address world leaders at the UN’s General Assembly, has ruled
out the deal. “There will be no ceasefire in the north,” a spokesperson said,
“we will continue to fight against the terrorist organization Hezbollah with all
our might until victory and the safe return of the residents of the north to
their homes.” Speaking ahead of the assembly, UN Secretary General António
Guterres warned that the world “cannot afford Lebanon to become another
Gaza.”Lebanese officials have also called for a ceasefire and suggested they
will involve their own forces if Israel undertakes a ground invasion. Speaking
to Sky News, health minister Firass Abiad said that Israeli strikes in the
country are causing “carnage”. “We’re already at war - this is not just an
escalation, we are already at war,” he added. “If Israel uses these very big and
strong bombs to target civilian areas, as they have been doing, then yes, the
numbers could reach catastrophic – even more catastrophic – than what we see
now.”But Israeli strikes on targets in Lebanon continue, with 75 attacks
reported on Wednesday. And while Israel and Hezbollah have both advocated for
de-escalation in the region, both maintain their attacks and threats.
Berri to Asharq Al-Awsat: Temporary Ceasefire Call Marks
Victory for Beirut Efforts
Beirut: Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 27/2024
Lebanese political and diplomatic activity is intensifying after the release of
an “international-Arab call” for a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. “The key lies
in implementation,” Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat,
describing the call itself “a victory for Lebanon’s efforts.”
Berri highlighted the role of major players, especially the US, in convincing
Israel to accept the ceasefire. He pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu “says one thing and its opposite,” while stressing that
Lebanon is committed to the call’s principles and ready to act.
“There is no problem on the Lebanese side, as the international joint statement
addressed both Gaza and Lebanon together,” Berri stressed. A Lebanese source
involved in negotiations at the UN indicated that the obstinacy of both Israel
and Hezbollah had blocked a proposed solution.
Now, efforts are focused on establishing a temporary ceasefire to allow for
negotiations regarding the crisis that erupted when Hezbollah, backed by Iran,
engaged with Israel to support Gaza. The source explained that the proposed
solution involved a new UN resolution to reinforce Resolution 1701, effective
since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War. However, Hezbollah’s insistence on
linking a ceasefire in Gaza to this proposal and Israel’s refusal to do so
thwarted the plan. The source expressed hope for a three-week temporary
ceasefire, with negotiations led by US envoy Amos Hochstein between Beirut and
Tel Aviv. In New York, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati held diplomatic
discussions aimed at stopping the Israeli offensive against Lebanon, engaging
with European and Arab officials during his visit. Reports suggested that Mikati
had “signed a proposed ceasefire agreement” after meeting US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken and mediator Amos Hochstein. However, the Prime Minister’s office
denied these claims, asserting that they are “entirely untrue.”The office
reminded the public of Mikati’s remarks after the joint call initiated by the US
and France, supported by the European Union and several countries, aimed at
establishing a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon. “We welcome the statement, but
the crucial factor lies in Israel's commitment to implementing international
resolutions,” said Mikati.
New York Meetings
Mikati met with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, who outlined Cyprus’s
efforts to support Lebanon and facilitate a ceasefire, including his talks with
Netanyahu. The Lebanese premier also discussed the situation in Lebanon and the
region with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, highlighting Britain’s
efforts to stop the fighting. Additionally, Mikati met with Qatari Prime
Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, thanking Qatar for its
support of Lebanon, particularly for its backing of the Lebanese army.The Qatari
Prime Minister briefed Mikati on ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and
Qatar’s role in the international committee working to elect a new president for
Lebanon.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 27-28/2024
Netanyahu didn’t flip-flop on ceasefire, saw
text only on plane — source
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
The US claimed that it believed that Netanyahu would consent to the ceasefire
soon after it was issued, while Israel said there was no such expectation. Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t flip-flop on his response to a joint
US-French call or a 21-day ceasefire along the Israeli-Lebanese border, a senior
diplomatic source told Israeli reporters during a briefing in New York. “We
never agreed to it,” the source said. He was one of two senior sources who
briefed reporters about what appeared to be a deep division between the Biden
administration and Israel over the best path forward to push Hezbollah away from
Israel’s northern border and out of Southern Lebanon. US believed Netanyahu
would consent to the ceasefire. The US claimed that it believed Netanyahu would
consent to the ceasefire soon after it was issued, while Israel said there was
no such expectation.
The disagreement created a situation where US officials were talking about a
21-day ceasefire that would soon go into effect. At the same time, Netanyahu
spoke about the IDF’s continued military campaign against Hezbollah, and
security officials weighed a possible ground campaign in southern Lebanon. US
National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby said that US President Joe
Biden would not have issued the statement if he didn’t believe that Israel was
on board. Israel “doesn’t want a dispute with the US over this,” one of the
officials stated, noting that it was simply not possible to have understood that
Israel would support a final text it saw only at the last second. The US also
doesn't want a dispute here, the source added. There were only three people
involved in the talks that led up to the issuance of the statement on Wednesday:
Netanyahu Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Israel’s Ambassador to Mike
Herzog. Those three people “didn’t see 95 percent of the text until Netanyahu
was on the plane” en route to New York, and they were “the most involved in the
process,” the source said. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called
Dermer to explain that the Biden administration was thinking of releasing a
joint statement with France calling for a ceasefire in the north. Israel
believed it gave its consent to the start of a dialogue on the proposal, during
which time it would continue with its military campaign. Israel always believed
its consent was contingent on the text, a source said. It was important to
Israel that it proceed with the process without giving the impression that it
opposed it. “Our [Israel’s] understanding was that it was an American decision,
that they [the Biden administration] was going to put something on the table,
and we would have to see what it said,” the source said. Netanyahu won’t respond
to the call for a 21-day ceasefire call without holding consultations back in
Israel, one of the sources explained. A northern ceasefire that would create a
temporary lull in the year-long constrained IDF-Hezbollah war would also be
linked to the concurrent Gaza war.
Israel has preferred to de-couple the two issues, while Hezbollah has insisted
on linking them, the source said. The initial text that Israel saw didn’t
include Gaza in it, while the one that was issued did, as part of a bid to gain
wider consensus on the document, the source said, referencing the 10 other
countries that backed the document. Israel has since worked to repair that
understanding with the US, with conversations held with US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken and US special envoys Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein. “We have
tried to fix this misunderstanding, and we think it is now behind us,” he said.
Pentagon seeking more information before classifying
Beirut strike as escalation of war
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
The Pentagon said it is assessing the event, but had no additional information
or specifics to provide at this time. The US had no advance warning of Israel's
strike on Hezbollah's central headquarters in Dahiyeh, Beirut on Friday, the
Pentagon said, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin learned of the operation while
it was underway during a phone call from Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
"We are still assessing the event and don't have any additional information or
any further specifics to provide at this time," Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina
Singh said. Singh did not comment on Israel's target or if Hezbollah
leader Hassan Nasrallah is alive. Singh said it “remains to be seen” if Israel’s
attack is considered to be an escalation. “We are still doing an assessment,”
she said. Singh was repeatedly pressed on who initiated the phone call this
morning between Austin and Gallant. Earlier this week reporters questioned why
the counterparts hadn’t spoken directly in days. Austin, and the administration
broadly, continues to urge for diplomacy as it’s the best path forward, she
said. “Diplomacy cannot succeed amid continued tit-for-tats back and forth,”
Singh said. “So that's what the Secretary's conversations are like with Mr.
Gallant. That's what he continues to urge for. I'll leave it at that.” Singh
denied there was a fracture of trust between Austin and Gallant. If there was,
she said, there wouldn’t be this type of levels of calls and engagements
occurring frequently, and not just at the Secretary's level, but across the
administration. According to Singh, the US still coordinates with the
Israeli government and provides intelligence, though she clarified the US had no
involvement or advance warning of Friday’s strike in Beirut. At this point, the
Pentagon does not see imminent signs of an Israeli ground operation into
Lebanon, but Singh deferred questions to the IDF to speak of their own
operations.
IDF deploys more reserve brigades to North as military preps for cross border
ops.
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
The two brigades included the 6th and 228th brigades and were mobilized as part
of recent tensions along Israel's northern border.
The IDF mobilized the 6th and 228th reserve brigades for operational missions in
northern Israel, the military announced on Friday. The military had previously
announced that they mobilized these two brigades, though their recent statement
confirmed which brigades and battalions were called up. The brigades were
mobilized along with additional reserve battalions as part of the IDF's
preparations for escalating conflict as tensions along Israel's northern border
with Hezbollah in Lebanon ramp up. The brigades reportedly carried out various
operations along the northern border over the course of the Israel-Hamas War.
They were recently mobilized to enable combat efforts to continue, which the IDF
said included targeting Hezbollah's military capabilities and creating
conditions for residents of northern Israel to return home. This follows a
Wednesday IDF announcement that the military was remobilizing two reserve
brigades for operations in northern Israel. The military said recruiting
additional reserve brigades would allow the fight against Hezbollah to continue.
Halevi says IDF 'not stopping'. While attending IDF exercises in northern
Israel, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said, "We are not stopping. The air force is
striking all day, and we are preparing for an operation."Additionally, on
Wednesday, the IDF's 7th Brigade completed exercises near the Lebanese border
and trained troops in maneuvering and combat in thicketed, mountainous terrains.
The IDF noted that this exercise simulated operational and logistical readiness
for various combat scenarios on the northern front. It also published images
showing tanks moving to the North. Yuval Barnea contributed to this report.
Dozens Of UN Delegates Walk Out In Protest Ahead Of
Benjamin Netanyahu's Evocative Speech
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/September 27, 2024
Dozens of UN delegates walked out of the general assembly hall in silence the
moment Benjamin Netanyahu started speaking on Friday. Cheers and applause rang
out at the same time – although it’s not clear if that was for the Israeli prime
minister or for the protest – while the UN president Philémon Yang called for
“order, order, please”.This is the first UN General Assembly since the war in
Gaza began on October 7. So this year, world leaders like UK PM Keir Starmer
have used their UN speeches to plead for Israel and its foes – Hezbollah and
Hamas – to “step back from the brink” and “stop the violence”.
Despite the wave of walk-outs, the Israeli PM began his speech by saying: “I
didn’t intend to come here this year. My country is at war, fighting for its
life. “But after I heard the lies and slander levelled at my country by many of
the speakers at this podium, I decided to come here and set the record
straight.”There was a cheer from the remaining delegates at that. He claimed:
“Here’s the truth: Israel seeks peace. Israel yearns for peace. Israel has made
peace and will make peace again.”Israel’s war against the Palestinian militants
Hamas began when the Iran-backed group killed 1,200 people on Israeli soil and
took around 250 others hostage. Israel declared war in retaliation, before
bombing and invading Gaza, supposedly in an effort to wipe out the militants.
Almost a year later, local authorities say 40,000 Palestinians have been killed.
Israeli tensions with other Iranian-backed militant groups, like Lebanon-based
Hezbollah, have also skyrocketed in the last 11 months, resulting in further
conflicts and risking all-out war in the region. Netanyahu claimed Israel is now
fighting on six fronts; Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon, Houthis from Yemen,
Iran’s Shiite militias from Syria and Iraq, Hamas in the West Bank, and Iran.
But, the Israeli PM still claimed his country “is winning”, at the UN, and
warned there is no place in Iran the “long arm” of Israel cannot reach. He also
held up two maps of the Middle East – where Gaza and the West Bank were not
separated from Israel – and claimed relations had normalised with Egypt, Sudan
and Saudi Arabia into a “blessing” but described Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon
as part of a “curse”.The Israeli PM added that it was “inconceivable” to allow
Hamas to remain a part of Gaza when the war ends, claiming Israel has killed or
captured “more than half” of Hamas members since the war began. He went on to
accuse the UN and the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, who is
trying to issue an arrest warrant for him, of “pure antisemitism”.Starmer
reportedly tried to arrange a meeting with Netanyahu at the UN this week, but
their diaries did not align. A planned meeting between the prime minister and
Israel’s strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer, was also cancelled because
Dermer delayed his travel to New York by a day. This all comes after the UK
joined calls for Israel and Hezbollah to agree to an immediate ceasefire earlier
this week. Netanyahu also condemned the UK for suspending 30 of approximately
350 arms licences to Israel at the start of September, saying it was a
“shameful” move which would “embolden Hamas”.
Netanyahu to Iran at UN — 'If you strike us, we will strike
you'
Jerusalem Post/September 27/2024
With respect to Hezbollah, he charged that it was “the quintessential terror
organization in the world today."Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran
not to directly attack the Jewish state, as he addressed the United Nations
General Assembly on Friday morning. “If you strike us, we will strike you,”
Netanyahu said. “There is no place in Iran where the long arm of Israel can not
reach,” Netanyahu said. “Far from being lambs led to the slaughter, Israel will
fight back,” Netanyahu said, adding, “We are winning.”Netanyahu spoke to the
plenum as his country is fighting a multi-front war against Iranian proxies,
namely Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He was greeted by loud applause
from the Israeli delegation while the entire Iranian walked out as he strode to
the podium. Netanyahu explained that he had not wanted to come to the UN in the
middle of those wars, but felt bound to so that he could speak Israel’s “truth”
to the world. Israel, he said, stands between “the curse of Iran or the blessing
of a historic normalization between Arabs and Jews.”He held up two maps, one
showing what he described as Iran's long aggressive arm and the other showing
the regional potential of expanding Israeli-Arab ties. One map was titled “the
curse,” and the other, “the blessing." “Iran’s aggression will endanger every
single country in the Middle East and many countries in the rest of the world,”
he said. “For too long the world has appeased Iran, and turned a blind eye to
its internal oppression and external aggression,” Netanyahu said. He pledged not
to allow Iran to acquire or develop nuclear weapons and asked the United
Nations, particularly the Security Council to take steps to make sure that Iran
does not become a nuclear power. Netanyahu recalled the Hamas-led invasion of
October 7, which sparked the Gaza war, and the Hezbollah attack on October 8,
which sparked the constrained cross-border war along its northern border. This
was followed by attacks from the Houthis in Yemen and a direct Iranian attack.
Turning to Gaza, he called on Hamas to release the remaining 101 hostages and
pledged not to end the war in Gaza until it does so. “All that has to happen” to
end the Gaza war “is for Hamas to surrender, lay down its arms, and release all
the hostages,” Netanyahu said. “If they do not, we will fight until we achieve
total victory, there is no substitute,” he said. A small group of relatives of
hostages were in the gallery, listening to his speech. "Hamas has got to go,"
Netanyahu stated. "Just imagine, for those who say Hamas has to stay, it has to
be part of a post-war Gaza - imagine in a post-war situation - in World War Two,
imagine allowing the defeated Nazis in 1945 to rebuild Germany." "It's
inconceivable. It's ridiculous. It didn’t happen then, and it's not going to
happen now,” Netanyahu added. With respect to Hezbollah, he charged that it was
“the quintessential terror organization in the world today, it has murdered more
Americans and Frenchmen than any [terror] group, except Iran,” Netanyahu stated.
Don’t let Hezbollah drag Lebanon into the abyss,” Netanyahu said, explaining
that as long as Hezbollah. Remained on Israel’s northern border, “Israel has no
choice and every right to remove this threat and return our citizens” safely to
their homes, he said.
Israel-Saudi normalization
Netanyahu spoke of the potential of Israel-Saudi normalization, noting that this
could happen sooner than anyone could imagine. He recalled that when he was
Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations he had fought against attempts to oust
Israel from the global body. Now, he said, he finds himself in that same battle
49 years later, with the latest push to drive Israel out of the UN coming from
Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, not Hamas. The United Nations General
Assembly, he said, and the body itself has a long history of bias against the
Jewish state.In its “swamp of antisemitic vile,” there is an “automatic majority
that is willing to demonize the Jewish state,” he said. “In this anti-Israel,
flat earth society, any false charge, any outlandish allegation has a majority,”
he stated, adding that since 2014, this body condemned Israel 174 times while
condemning all the other countries in the world 73 times.
“Why hypocrisy, what a double standard, what a joke,” he said. He took
particular issue with the recent resolution which sought to strip Israel of its
right to self-defense, which he said was the same thing as determining that it
should not exist. “If you can't defend yourself, you can’t exist, not in our
neighborhood and maybe not in yours,” he said.Those who stand with Israel
“should be ashamed of yourselves,” he said, adding that Israel will “win this
battle” because “we do not have a choice.” Netanyahu quoted from the Bible
stating that “the eternity of Israel will not falter” and from the famed poet
Dylan Thomas. “Israel will not go gently into that good night. We will never
cease to rage against the dying light, Israel will forever shine bright,” he
said. “The people of Israel live, now, tomorrow, and forever,” he said.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.
Gunmen shoot and kill aid worker in Gaza, charity and family say
Nidal al-Mughrabi/CAIRO (Reuters)/September 27, 2024
Palestinian gunmen in the Gaza Strip shot and killed an aid worker from a U.S.
based charity, firing on her car in what government officials told her family
was a case of mistaken identity. The car in which Islam Hejazy, Gaza program
manager at HEAL Palestine, was travelling was intercepted on Thursday in the
area of Khan Younis in the south of the enclave. Gunmen riding in three cars
sprayed the vehicle with dozens of bullets, according to residents and the
woman's family. "She was the mother of two small children and a humanitarian
with the highest ethics and professionalism," HEAL Palestine, posted on its
Facebook page. "HEAL Palestine is more dedicated than ever to serving Gaza, in
her honor. Ceasefire now," it added. Her family issued a statement on Friday,
saying they were told by government parties at the hospital where her body was
taken that she was killed by mistake. Her killers, whose identity wasn't
immediately clear, had failed to identify the vehicle she was driving, they
said. There has been no immediate comment from Hamas. "That was a bigger shock
.. How would an innocent soul be wasted and 90 bullets fired at her car just for
mistaken identification?" the family said in a statement published by
Palestinian media. Reuters was not able to verify the number of bullets fired.
The incident highlights growing chaos and anarchy in Gaza almost a year into
Israel's military offensive, which has weakened the ability of Hamas-run
security services to police the streets, according to the group. Palestinians
have complained of rising theft, gangsters, and price-gouging merchants. Gaza
has a population of 2.3 million people and most of them have been internally
displaced by the war. Israel and Hamas have been fighting since gunmen from the
Palestinian militant group stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200
people and capturing some 250 hostages, by Israeli tallies. Israel responded
with a military offensive in Gaza, which has killed more than 41,500
Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.
Wrapping up mission, US troops will leave some
longstanding bases in Iraq under new deal
Qassim Abdul-zahra And Tara Copp/WASHINGTON (AP)/September 27,
2024
The U.S. announced an agreement with the Iraqi government Friday to wrap up the
military mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State
group by next year, with U.S. troops departing some bases that they have long
occupied during a two-decade-long military presence in the country. But the
Biden administration refused to provide details on how many of the approximately
2,500 U.S. troops still serving in Iraq will remain there or acknowledge it will
mark a full withdrawal from the country. “I think it’s fair to say that, you
know, our footprint is going to be changing within the country,” Pentagon deputy
press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Friday without providing specifics.
The announcement comes at a particularly contentious time for the Middle East,
with escalating conflict between Israel and two Iranian-backed militant groups —
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza — threatening a broader regional war.
Bases housing U.S. forces and contractors have been regularly targeted by
Iran-backed militias over the last several years, and those attacks intensified
late last year and early this spring after the Israel-Hamas war broke out nearly
a year ago. For years, Iraqi officials have periodically called for a withdrawal
of coalition forces, and formal talks to wind down the U.S. presence in the
country have been going on for months. U.S. officials who briefed reporters
Friday said the agreement will bring about a two-phase transition in the troops
assigned to Iraq that began this month. In the first phase, which runs through
September 2025, the coalition mission against ISIS will end and forces will
leave some longstanding bases. Following the November election, American forces
will start departing from Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and from Baghdad
International Airport, according to Iraqi government officials who spoke to The
Associated Press on the condition of anonymity. Those forces will be moved to
Hareer base in Erbil, in northern Iraq's Kurdistan region.
In the second phase, the U.S. will continue to operate in some fashion from Iraq
through 2026 to support counter-ISIS operations in Syria, a senior Biden
administration official and a senior defense official said on the condition of
anonymity on a call with reporters to provide details ahead of the announcement.
Ultimately, the U.S. military mission would transition to a bilateral security
relationship, the U.S. officials said, but they did not indicate what that might
mean for the number of American troops who remain in Iraq in the future.The
Iraqi officials said some American troops may stay at Hareer base after 2026
because the Kurdistan regional government would like them to stay. “We have
taken an important step in resolving the issue of the international coalition to
fight ISIS,” Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani said in a speech this
month. He noted “the government’s belief in the capabilities of our security
forces that defeated the remnants of ISIS.”
The continued presence of U.S. troops has been a political vulnerability for
Sudani, whose government is under increased influence from Iran. Iraq has long
struggled to balance its ties with the U.S. and Iran, both allies of the Iraqi
government but regional archenemies. “We thank the government for its position
to expel the international coalition forces,” Qais Khazali, founder of Asaib Ahl
al-Haq — an Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militia that has conducted attacks against
U.S. forces in Iraq — said last week. But critics caution that this year’s surge
of ISIS attacks in Syria across the desert border from Iraq suggest the drawdown
in Iraq is a “really significant cause for concern,” said Charles Lister, a
senior fellow with the Middle East Institute research center in Washington. The
U.S. withdrawal from Iraq isn’t because ISIS has disappeared, Lister said. “The
withdrawal is because there’s a significant proportion of the policy-making
community in Baghdad that doesn’t want American troops on Iraqi soil.”The
agreement marks the third time in the last two decades that the U.S. has
announced a formal transition of the military's role there.
The U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003 in what it called a massive “shock and awe”
bombing campaign that lit up the skies, laid waste to large sections of the
country and paved the way for American ground troops to converge on Baghdad. The
invasion was based on what turned out to be faulty claims that Saddam Hussein
had secretly stashed weapons of mass destruction. Such weapons never
materialized. The U.S. presence grew to more than 170,000 troops at the peak of
counterinsurgency operations in 2007. The Obama administration negotiated the
drawdown of forces, and in December 2011, the final combat troops departed,
leaving only a small number of military personnel behind to staff an office of
security assistance and a detachment of Marines to guard the embassy compound.
In 2014, the rise of the Islamic State group and its rapid capture of a wide
swath across Iraq and Syria brought U.S. and partner nation forces back at the
invitation of the Iraqi government to help rebuild and retrain police and
military units that had fallen apart and fled. After ISIS lost its hold on the
territory it once claimed, coalition military operations ended in 2021. An
enduring U.S. presence of about 2,500 troops stayed in Iraq to maintain training
and conduct partnered counter-ISIS operations with Iraq's military. In the years
since, the U.S. has maintained that presence to pressure Iranian-backed militias
active in Iraq and Syria. The presence of American forces in Iraq also makes it
more difficult for Iran to move weapons across Iraq and Syria into Lebanon, for
use by its proxies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah, against Israel.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on September 27-28/2024
Rape is Resistance and Beepers are Genocide
Daniel Greenfield/Gatestone Institute/September 27, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134968/
Those same organizations [that condemned Israel's exploding pagers] and
activists had nothing to say about the Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli towns
and villages that turned tens of thousands of Jews into refugees in their own
country.
There is no legitimate way for Israel (or any non-Muslim country) to take out an
Islamic terrorist. No amount of warnings, phone calls and dropped leaflets and
roof-knocking warning projectiles were enough of a precaution. Even
hostage-rescue operations were condemned for killing terrorists who, in the
usual Hamas medical department parlance, turned into innocent children.
And there's also no such thing as an illegitimate Muslim way to murder Jews.
The Democrat political establishment can't seem to get around to condemning the
Islamic groups attacking synagogues and marching through the streets praising
the rape and murder of Jews.
Every Israeli tactic is illegitimate because the cause, a Jewish State, is
illegitimate, but no Islamic tactic is ever truly illegitimate because its
cause, replacing Israel with an Islamic state, is legitimate.
The liberal anti-Israel establishment in D.C., human rights groups and the media
have played a cynical game of focusing on Israel tactics as if they actually
cared how Israel takes out terrorists, and as if there were any means of taking
out terrorists that would win their approval.
What makes people cheer for Israel are accomplishments, winning a war in six
days, rescuing hostages from Africa, taking out an Islamic nuclear program on
July 4th, and detonating the communications devices of a terrorist group
responsible for killing Americans.
Israel has been held hostage trying to win over those who cannot be won over.
Much of the liberal establishment has either become radicalized into permanently
opposing Israel or has become complicit with those who do. The only narrative it
will accept is the same demands that Israel be dismantled piece by piece and
parceled out to Islamic terrorists in exchange for peace.
No one cheers weakness, they only respect strength.
The only way to win... is to win.
No sooner did the encrypted pagers used by members of Hezbollah begin exploding
than human rights experts and the UN began condemning the single greatest
targeted attack on a terror group as a violation of international law. Those
same organizations and activists had nothing to say about the Hezbollah rocket
attacks on Israeli towns and villages that turned tens of thousands of Jews into
refugees in their own country. Pictured: A photo taken on September 18, 2024 in
Beirut shows the remains of a Hezbollah pager that exploded the day before.
(Photo by AFP via Getty Images)
The myth that Israel's tactics, not its existence, is at issue died with the
murdered Jewish families on October 7, 2023 and the Hezbollah terrorists taken
out by pagers on September 17, 2024.
No sooner did the encrypted communications devices handed out to members of the
Islamic Jihadist group begin exploding than human rights experts and the UN
began condemning the single greatest targeted attack on a terror group as a
violation of international law. Those same organizations and activists had
nothing to say about the Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli towns and villages
that turned tens of thousands of Jews into refugees in their own country.
There is no legitimate way for Israel (or any non-Muslim country) to take out an
Islamic terrorist. No amount of warnings, phone calls and dropped leaflets and
roof-knocking warning projectiles were enough of a precaution. Even
hostage-rescue operations were condemned for killing terrorists who, in the
usual Hamas medical department parlance, turned into innocent children.
And there's also no such thing as an illegitimate Muslim way to murder Jews. Oct
7 proved that. Nearly a year later, Islamic groups are still celebrating the
orgy of butchery, kidnapping and rape. The Democratic Socialists of America,
which boasts 5 allied Members of Congress including Rep. Rashida Tlaib, has
taken to arguing in favor of "armed resistance" and Hamas.
More Democrats have taken to social media to condemn a Detroit News cartoon
which implied that Tlaib's support for terrorism may have led her to worry about
her pager, than two recent Muslim terrorist plots to massacre Jews in synagogues
in Las Vegas and New York City. The Democrat political establishment can't seem
to get around to condemning the Islamic groups attacking synagogues and marching
through the streets praising the rape and murder of Jews.
The liberal establishment accepts the Islamic terrorist cause but rejects the
Israeli cause.
That's why when it comes to Islamic terrorism, it emphasizes the cause over the
tactics, but when it comes to Israel, it emphasizes the tactics over the cause.
Every Israeli tactic is illegitimate because the cause, a Jewish State, is
illegitimate, but no Islamic tactic is ever truly illegitimate because its
cause, replacing Israel with an Islamic state, is legitimate.
No matter how often the Arab Muslim invaders occupying parts of Gaza and the
West Bank pledge their allegiance to terror, we are told that their ultimate
cause is just and inevitable. And that the killings, kidnappings and rapes don't
truly represent the moral righteousness of it.
While every time Israel takes out a terrorist, the media links it to the Jewish
"occupation" of those parts of Israel that the terrorists demand for themselves.
Since Israel's existence is wrong, any tactic that it uses to fight the
terrorists trying to take it over is a human rights violation.
The Marxist mobs in the street are at least honest about their ideological
orientation. They define all Jews living in Israel as "settlers" who are fair
game for genocide. Whether Israel takes them out with drone strikes, exploding
beepers or Barney songs played on a loop doesn't much matter except as it's
useful for propaganda materials calling for the destruction of Israel.
The liberal anti-Israel establishment in D.C., human rights groups and the media
have played a cynical game of focusing on Israel tactics as if they actually
cared how Israel takes out terrorists and as if there were any means of taking
out terrorists that would win their approval. A generation of the Israeli
military jumping through every possible hoop has yielded only angrier and more
sanctimonious condemnations every time another terrorist bites the dust.
Israel has wasted a lot of the lives of its soldiers and civilians on its side
in the hopes of achieving some phantom "purity of arms" that included an
extensive approvals process for strikes that crippled its aerial response on Oct
7. Afterward things got better and worse. The pager attack was brilliantly
calculated and yet crippled by an obsessive need to take out specific targets
rather than inflicting as much damage on the Hezbollah terrorists as possible.
The painstaking efforts to monitor the terrorists to minimize collateral damage
and to focus on specific targets did not change the inevitable condemnations
that came rolling Israel's way.
The real lesson of the pager attacks was that an innovative Israeli attack on
Islamic terrorists will be cheered by the right people and condemned by the
wrong ones. Israeli hasbara (public relations) is a fundamentally misguided
effort to explain the need for a war whose hand-wringing signals weakness and
guilt. What makes people cheer for Israel are accomplishments, winning a war in
six days, rescuing hostages from Africa, taking out an Islamic nuclear program
on July 4th, and detonating the communications devices of a terrorist group
responsible for killing Americans.
No one except the occasional military expert who tours the battlefield is
impressed by Israeli restraint. And restraint will win not a single concession
from the same establishment that can't bring itself to condemn by name the mobs
waving Hamas flags and assaulting Jewish students.
Israel has been held hostage trying to win over those who cannot be won over.
Much of the liberal establishment has either become radicalized into permanently
opposing Israel or has become complicit with those who do. The only narrative it
will accept is the same demands that Israel be dismantled piece by piece and
parceled out to Islamic terrorists in exchange for peace.
That the peace has never come, that the negotiations are worthless and that the
only product of two generations of concessions is endless war will not change a
single mind. Just as the implication of the revelation that Hamas planned to
murder Israeli hostages before handing them over in exchange for live Muslim
terrorists was hardly even discussed in the media.
After nine months of demanding a deal with Hamas at any cost, the Biden
administration has belatedly decided that the terrorist group is not serious
about a deal, but that news hasn't changed Kamala Harris's set talking point
about the urgent need to end the war and cut a deal. Nor will it change her
policy should she be in a position to stop talking and start making the rules.
Israel has been divided by the need to balance winning wars against winning over
public opinion, but the public opinion of the establishment was never winnable,
and if it is winnable, it can only be won by winning wars. The Biden
administration's policymakers will never admit it, but they were far more
impressed by the pager attacks than by 9 months of negotiations. The same is
more obviously true of Arab-Muslim countries that despise Hezbollah and fear
Iran.
No one cheers weakness, they only respect strength.
Israel will never have even the grudging acceptance of those who believe that
rape is resistance and beepers are genocide. Accommodating military tactics to
their accusations has led to a loop of defeatism that culminated in the deadly
infiltration, invasion and massacres of Oct 7. But it can best be a player on
the world stage by showing its strength rather than its weakness.
One Pagergeddon was worth a hundred Nova documentaries and exhibitions about the
unhappy victims who were assaulted at the music festival to morale, national
security and the reputation of a nation built on repudiating the helplessness
and victimhood of its long exile.
Oct 7 incited the dark glee of a movement that believes it can taste Israel's
destruction. Protestations of innocence and victimhood only feed its
triumphalism. What it fears isn't a documentary about the atrocities of Oct 7,
but the destruction of its Jihadist armies.
The issue was never Israel's tactics, but Israel's existence. The only way to
win... is to win.
**Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz
Freedom Center. This article previously appeared at the Center's Front Page
Magazine.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20970/beepers-are-genocide
Quick, Angry Impressions on the Margins of War
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 28/2024
- Once again, humans become an ephemeral detail. Devastated civilians, mourning
loved ones they have lost, homes that have been destroyed, and lives of poverty
and deprivation they will face... these are all mere numbers, or scenes we watch
as they unfold on our television screens.
No one takes these people into consideration as they lay out their war plans.
The more numerous dead people are, the better, because in the mayhem of war,
their only utility is to serve as evidence of the enemy's brutality. They
validate "what we told you," and have been saying for a hundred years.
- Dignity? The displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from the South
and the Bekaa (after the mass displacement in Gaza) is the epitome of dignity.
Where is the problem? In a year, or two, or ten, another leader, or perhaps the
same one, could invite them to return to their homes, only to be displaced
again. We heard and saw this call just a few weeks ago, superciliously dropped
on residents from above like it were largesse.
That is how we have approached dignity since the late sixties; we have never
once failed it and it has never failed us. That is how we, the people of
Lebanon, became the most dignified on earth!
- Declaring defeat is ugly and painful, and it certainly entails a high cost on
those who do so. However, that cost pales in comparison to the costs of
resistance and steadfastness. Do you want numbers, or is this a matter of a
stray spirit that cannot be measured in figures as it looks down on any data and
all that is concrete?
- Sometimes it seems that all our history does is repeat itself, providing those
who essentialize us and paint us rigid with enough arguments to make their
point. We are occupied, so we resist; we resist, so we are occupied, and so on
until the end of time. When this cycle winds down, we find ourselves in limbo,
surrendering to our ordinary life that lacks honor and dignity. Resist then; you
are guaranteed to be occupied, and then to resist and be occupied again... and
to keep living in an endless epic.
- Can anyone tell us the point at which we would stop fighting or declare
defeat? How many people would have to be killed? How much land has to be
occupied? How many homes have to be destroyed? How many harvests have to be
burned? Any one of these criteria could be binding, assuming there can be a
criterion?
The Iranian regime, it seems, has set a standard for transitioning to
"moderation." The Syrian regime preceded it, setting a standard for passivity
and disavowal. In Lebanon, our standard is the will to resist, and naturally,
this will is unbreakable because it is "God’s will." Is there anything visible
in this world of spirits?
- After the liberation that some promise us, and the erasure of the usurping
entity that the more flexible wing of this same cohort promises us, what will we
do? What is our program? Program? What a dull word!
- The tragedy of the Palestinians is compounded by the tragedy of how Palestine
has been exploited, so much so that the word has become synonymous with disaster
for the people of Lebanon and Syria after it had already been for Palestinians.
The culture of proposing disaster to the two nations has become mainstream in
Arab political culture.
- Something significant has ended, even if this finality continues to be denied.
Together, the end and its denial compound death.
In Lebanon, at least, the current tragedy should be expected to broaden and
consolidate an existing majority. This majority does not want to live haplessly,
generation after generation, with no say on their lives or deaths merely because
"a handful of honorable men have decided to resist." What this majority builds
is destroyed, and its dreams are shattered for the sake of this sheer absurd
madness, crested with lies and hot air. These are people who love both their
country and life itself.
- Anyone who takes even a quick glance at social media is horrified by the
intensity of sectarian hatred (which often intersects with national or factional
divisions) that has been unleashed by this war. Haven’t the knights of war
promised that nothing would unite us like a conflict with the Zionist enemy? It
is yet another prophecy being fulfilled before our eyes!
This war, within the confines of its Lebanese theater, is the culmination of a
long and diligent effort to destroy Lebanon: its destruction as a space with
modest freedoms, peace, and openness to the world, and as an entity capable of
reform and change, as was evident when the 2006 war was instigated to eradicate
the climate that arose after March 14, 2005, and when honorable youths who
coming back home from their genocidal mission in Syria were called on to
eradicate the movement that arose on October 17, 2019.
Yes, this is how we should be and should remain. We should keep resisting and
being occupied, and then be occupied and resist, turning into a mass cemetery
that mainstream Arab culture calls a great epic of melting in the love of
Palestine.
To Prevent Lebanon from Becoming Another Gaza!
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 28/2024
The third Lebanon War is close to becoming totally unrestrained, and the country
is exposed. Israel launched a devastating incursion by air last Saturday that
has turned into genocide since Monday. Massacres have been perpetrated in the
south and the Bekaa Valley, resulting in a heavy toll: over 600 people have died
and more than 2,000 have been injured. Hospitals have shut down, and broad panic
has led to the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands humiliated by
belligerent arrogance!
The rapidly developing situation threatens grim outcomes. It seems that Lebanon
is on course to become another Gaza, with Zionist savagery creating several
small Gazas in border towns that have been turned to ashes! This dangerous
trajectory began the moment Israel’s security cabinet made the "safe return of
northern residents to their homes" an official objective of the war. Israel has
been launching lethal strikes since the 17th of September. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had promised to change the
"balance of power in the north” and to “eliminate senior officials and remove
the missile threat." Meanwhile, the Pentagon has said that "a wider regional
conflict is very likely."
From the very moment the terrifying spiral began, Hezbollah, which dragged the
country into this destructive war, should have abandoned its intransigence by
reassessing its internal issues and its relationship with other Lebanese actors.
One minute of the day of the "deadly call" made Lebanon seem weaker than a
spiderweb. Without firing a single bullet, Israel neutralized around 4,000
people, mostly members of the militia, field commanders, and elite fighters.
After the walkie-talkies were blown up, the national tragedy as the tally of
families affected rose to 6,000.
Meanwhile, Hassan Nasrallah ignored the implications of the Israeli government
incorporating the northern front into its war objectives, raising the stakes
after having rejected every viable political initiative for a settlement. He
doubled down on linking Lebanon's fate to Gaza, i.e., to Netanyahu's fate and
interests, thereby providing Israel with an opportunity to launch its third war
on Lebanon, which it sees as an alternative to a broader conflict, to achieve a
resounding restoration of deterrence. To any serious political actor, that was
obviously on the cards. Indeed, the party all but invited war, whereas the wise
thing to do would be to avoid it. Israel responded with Operation Buffalo,
targeting Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and the leaders of the Radwan Force,
revealing dangerous shifts:
First, Hezbollah failed to address Israel’s deep intelligence and security
infiltration. The assassination of three highly prominent figures in the party’s
stronghold (Arouri, Shukr, and Aqil) culminated last Monday with the attack that
injured Ali Karaki, one of the two living members of Hezbollah’s top brass.
Second, the empty slogans and false narratives about the rules of engagement,
the achievements of Hezbohllah’s harassment and support, and a balance of
deterrence have collapsed. However, it keeps trying to sell deluded notions, as
well as refusing to acknowledge the gravity of these failures, leading to death
and destruction across the country.
Third, the statelet’s approach to dealing with the Lebanese people and “its
community” has been exposed. It mirrors the Iranian regime in its indifference
to the people's hopes and concerns, treating the calamities it causes as mere
collateral damage of the effort to consolidate Iran’s control. If that were not
the case, its leadership, headquarters, and ammunition would not be located in
densely populated residential areas.
Fourth, the claims that the statelet’s arsenal protects the country, as well as
the assertion that these weapons allow for self-defense, have been debunked. It
is now evident that the state, which has been weakened, hollowed out, and
plagued by corruption and poverty, remains capable of restoring security and
stability, as well as protecting everyone, including Hezbollah, which is now
fighting for its own existence.
Amid the painful strikes acknowledged by Nasrallah, and while its “nucleus of
support" and broad segments of the "party" are awaiting the support of the
factions that have committed to a "unity of fronts," Tehran announced that it is
ready to negotiate its nuclear program. The Iranian president presented himself
as a peace advocate in New York, stressing that his country would not intervene
in the Israel-Hezbollah war and implying that the role of its proxies is merely
to serve as tools Tehran uses to conclude dirty deals with Washington and Tel
Aviv!
Nothing should be prioritized over the need to save Lebanon and the lives of its
citizens. There is still time to prevent Lebanon from becoming another Gaza,
despite the world turning its back on the massacre and the plans to crush
Lebanon, granting Israel cover to escalate its crimes under the pretext of
reducing Hezbollah's military capabilities.
Things have reached a point where the pulling to the north of the Litani River
is no longer enough. To stop the bleeding, the remnants of the country’s
authorities and the political class must face their moral responsibilities and
protect civilian lives. The government must stop behaving like a mere
spokesperson for Hezbollah and its project. The government must send substantial
military forces to the south now, thereby delivering an unequivocal message
about its intention to fully implement UN Resolution 1701 and the new proposals
being put forward to safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and allow the state to once
again make decisions of war and peace. A different policy is needed to allow
Lebanon's friends to play supportive roles and lay the foundations for ending
the war. That could potentially allow Hezbollah to find a way back down.
A War of Choice and a War of Necessity
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 28/2024
Last week, on a single day of an undeclared war, one of the protagonists
suffered more than 500 deaths and more than 1,600 wounded, a total of over 2,200
casualties.
The country in question has a population of 5 million. Now imagine if that
casulaty figure had occurred in a country with a population of say 90 million;
the proportionate casualty figure would work out at a staggering 34,000.
Well, as you guessed the first country mentioned is Lebanon. which has been
dragged into a war on behalf of the second country that is to say the Islamic
Republic in Iran.
I said dragged into a war because as everyone must know neither the Lebanese
people nor what is still regarded as the Lebanese government were consulted on
the wisdom let alone the desirability of triggering such a war.
The tragic episode has created a new category of war: kangaroo proxy war.
In it, the proxy uses the territory of a nation with no interest in or desire
for a war in order to protect and promote the real or imaginary of a distant
master.
Broadly speaking, we know two kinds of wars: of choice and or of necessity. In a
war of choice, a protagonist enters the foray by choice and in the absence of
any pressure from necessity. The United States was sucked into the Vietnam War
by choice as did the USSR in Afghanistan and more recently Russia in Ukraine. In
none of those cases, the party that gate crashed into a civil war, as was the
case in Vietnam and Afghanistan or triggered an unnecessary war as is the case
in Ukraine faced any mortal danger or serious threat to its vital interests.
The war of necessity, however caused by a sentiment that a protagonist's vital
interests, indeed even its very existence, may be in danger.
Back to the current wars in our region. The October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas
was a war of choice. Hamas was in no mortal danger from Israel, and Gaza was
doing relatively better thanks to a fairly long period of calm, growing foreign
investment and a tripling of Israeli work permits for Gazan seasonal workers.
There wasn't the remotest possibility of Israel wishing to reconquer Gaza and
dislodge Hamas.
In practical, that is to say non-ideological terms, Hamas could have chosen to
live
with and profit from the status quo rather than seeking to upset it in a manner
that forced the adversary into a war of necessity.
Israel's initial reaction to the October 7 attack was a war of necessity, at
least in the field of geo-political perceptions. Israel was in the same
situation that the US had been after 9/11. At that time, the US might have
limited its response to a police operation to dislodge the Taliban and if
possible capture Osama bin Laden and his senior associates without getting
involved in a 20-year low intensity war with no discernible geopolitical benefit
for America.
What had started as a war of necessity morphed into a war of choice when US
Democrats, having declared the Iraq war "the wrong war" dubbed the imbroglio in
Afghanistan "the right war."
Is Israel heading in the same direction by transforming a war of necessity into
one of choice?
It is too early to offer a definitive answer to that question. What is clear,
however, is that the activities of Tehran's proxies in Yemen, Iraq and above all
Lebanon encourage those in Israel who wish to transform a war of necessity into
one choice with the ultimate goal of eliminating Hezbollah and, later why not,
the Khomeinist regime in Tehran.
Whichever way one looks at it, the war of choice that Hezbollah started by
breaking the 2006 ceasefire accord and ignoring the 1701 UN resolution can't but
lead to disaster for Tehran's Trojan Horse in Beirut. It will also provide
Israel with a strong "self-defense" argument to justify pursuing the war in Gaza
while Hassan Nasrallah claims he is bombarding northern Israel in support of his
imaginary ally Yahya Sinwar crouched in his tunnel.
Paradoxically, dragging Lebanon into the foray makes it more difficult if not
impossible for Sinwar, provided he is still alive, to accept any ceasefire deal.
And even if he does, there is no guarantee that Israel would suddenly abandon a
golden chance to cut Hezbollah down to size especially with assurances from Iran
not to do anything consequential to protect its Lebanese protege.
Nasrallah is two intelligent not to realize that he has been sold a bundle by
Tehran. He became a tool in a war that was someone else's choice but is becoming
his necessity.
Worse still Tehran media are already musing about changes in Hezbollah paving
the path for a cynical blame game of the kind only mullahs made in Iran are
capable of. Soft-soaping the gullible Americans, President Masoud Pezeshkian in
New York conjured the peace dove out of his invisible turban. The subtext was:
we can call back the hounds of war we unleashed
Hezbollah at the Finish Line
Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat/September 28/2024
To justify the severe blows it has received, Hezbollah and its supporters
console themselves with the notion that "we have been sacrificing martyrs for 40
years."
The party’s shrewd bi-pronged propaganda game is centered around this theme.
Managing the contradictions of its narrative, it glorifies leaders who have
fallen in battles or been assassinated and portrays them as legends, before
swiftly transitioning to an antithetical claim: losing these legendary leaders
does not undermine the party’s efforts or project in any way.
It seems that this game is no longer sufficient for boosting morale and
mobilizing support at this point, as Hezbollah is undergoing the most difficult
phase it has been through since it was established in 1982.
Within less than a year, a deep crisis has undermined its leadership structure,
military capabilities, and operational effectiveness, raising serious questions
about its future in Lebanon and the regional geopolitical landscape.
First: the penetration of Hezbollah's communication networks has dealt a severe
blow to a crucial pillar of any organization or army’s capabilities. Without
them, no fighting force can wage any kind of conflict.
Israel’s ability to penetrate mobile phones has left the party exposed since the
conflict began, allowing the Israelis to locate and eliminate a large number of
the party’s field commanders. Later on, following the assassination of military
commander Fuad Shukr, it became apparent that Israel had even succeeded in
infiltrating Hezbollah's private landline communication network- the same
network that Hezbollah had fought a "mini civil war"to maintain in 2008.
The most consequential blow was dealt when Israel lured Hezbollah into making a
deal to purchase thousands of booby-trapped pagers, most of which detonated in
the hands of their users within less than 30 minutes, critically injuring many
operatives and officials. This breach opened the door to locating figures like
the commander of the Radwan Unit, Ibrahim Aqil, who had been injured as a result
of this very operation. He was identified after Israel hacked into the
surveillance cameras of the hospital where he was receiving treatment, and then
tracked his movements after he was discharged, leading them to the building in
the southern suburb of Beirut (Dahyieh) where he held his final meeting around
24 hours later.
The scale of the collapse of Hezbollah's secure communications is immense. Even
without accounting for the scale of the injuries and losses it caused, this
breakdown makes it impossible for Hezbollah to engage in a direct conflict with
Israel.
By bombarding the location of the meeting in Beirut’s southern suburb, Israel
demonstrated that Hezbollah is in chaos and that it has lost its operational
efficiency and that its command and control capabilities have collapsed due to
the severe breach of its communications infrastructure.
Second: its breach of Hezbollah’s communications has allowed Israel to launch
devastating preemptive strikes on Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, including
its weapon depots, rocket launching sites, fortified positions, and drone and
missile assembly plants. The most notable strikes were launched on August 25th,
when around 100 Israeli fighter jets destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket
launchers that were about to be used in attacks on northern and central Israel
in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr.
Anticipation and speculation of Hezbollah’s retaliation have not dominated the
media coverage since then. The general impression is that, although it managed
to launch a few rockets or sought to project strength by launching rockets at
the vicinity of Haifa, Hezbollah has completely lost the initiative. Indeed,
with the assassination of Fuad Shukr, the preemptive strike that followed, and
finally, the strike that eliminated an unprecedented number of Hezbollah’s top
brass in the heart of Beirut’s southern suburb, Israel has raised the stakes to
an entirely new level.
Third: the most painful blow might be Israel’s systematic assassination of
Hezbollah leaders and its pivotal operatives. The Israeli military has released
an image of Hezbollah’s leadership structure showing that the party has lost
about 70 percent (6 out of 9) of its military and field commanders. Its
assassinations have also targeted hundreds of Hezbollah figures that oversee
critical operations, including drone warfare, cyberwar, special coordination
units, and key field commanders and personnel.
Given how rapidly and extensively Israel has drained the party’s human
capabilities, a massive strategic vacuum has emerged and it will be difficult to
fill in the near future. These assassinations have not only weakened the party’s
effectiveness in the field but have also devastated its morale and strategic
vision.
As a result, Hezbollah now finds itself in the worst situation it has ever been
in. Its communication networks were compromised, its military infrastructure was
destroyed, and it is bleeding leaders and cadres. The hits it has taken in the
past few weeks are more consequential than all the blow it has received over the
past few decades combined, raising existential questions about Hezbollah’s
future, its role in Lebanon, and its standing among its allies and adversaries
in the Middle East.
Selected Important Tweets
Hanin Ghaddar
The #Shia fleeing the war are literally left on their own, for the first time.
- The #Lebanese government has forgotten to put an emergency plan in place to
help refugees. The government is broke anyway.
- #Hezbollah’s social service teams are nowhere to be seen. In 2016 they were
all over refugee centers helping people with food, medicine, and mattresses.
They are afraid to come out now.
- Except for a few volunteers who can afford to help, the refugees would starve.
- Many couldn’t take the humiliation and went back to their homes in the south
and #Dahiyeh.
- Some decided to break into empty apartments by force; others are just trying
to survive; and many left to Syria, with no guarantees of aid for a long term
displacement.
- The worst part? Hezbollah leaders and commanders sent their families - by
planes - to Iraq, including the family of #Nasrallah himself - leaving the Shia
community alone; completely alone.
- This is not going to end well; and many Shia are already blaming Hezbollah.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Shia partisans of #Hezbollah have relocated away from their dangerous territory
to safer non-Shia neighborhoods across #Lebanon. As displaced guests, the
Hezbollahis refuse to be nice, but are acting as if they own the world,
threatening their non-Shia hosts with consequences when the war with #Israel
ends. The Shia partisans of Hezbollah seem certain that this war is a replica of
2006. All they have to do is hunker down for the duration of the war, and then
dig out after few weeks and take out the rage of their defeat to Israel against
fellow Lebanese.
#Lebanon looks doomed. But in the off chance that Hezbollah weakens, the
Lebanese will tear it apart in revenge. The idea that Hezbollah is a popular
organization that represents the Lebanese will, to support Palestinians and war
with #Israel, is one huge lie.
Hezbollah is more popular in New York City and on U.S. college campuses than it
is in its own country — Lebanon.
What’s next for #Hezbollah, if #Nasrallah is killed.
Hanin Ghaddar
- On the political level: As I said in my succession paper a few years back, not
only he is the most charismatic Hezbollah leader (he speaks colloquial Arabic;
not Fusha, he smiles, he jokes), and no one else does that.
- He is also linked to Hezbollah’s legacy and victories - the liberation of
2000, and the “divine victory” of 2006. The successor - if they survived - won’t
be able to fill these shoes. They be linked to the group’s failures and
challenges.
- On the military level, the IRGC used to coordinate with Hezbollah on vital
decisions, and Nasrallah - along with senior commanders - would lead the battle,
command forces, implement decisions. With all senior commanders killed (except
Ali Karaki) the Iranians will have a problem. Either they will have to lead
themselves, or they’ll accept the ceasefire initiative via the Lebanese
government.
- In any case, the Iranians don’t know Lebanon, and can’t shape political
dynamics. This is big opportunity for the Lebanese opposition - vital moment for
a unified opposition coalition.
- Hezbollah might turn its arms inwards. And it’s vital for the international
community to take advantage of this moment to protect and support the
opposition.