English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 20/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
‘Truly I tell you, there is no one who has left house or brothers or sisters or mother or father or children or fields, for my sake and for the sake of the good news, who will not receive a hundredfold now in this age houses, brothers and sisters, mothers and children, and fields, with persecutions and in the age to come eternal life.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 10/28-31/:”Peter began to say to Jesus, ‘Look, we have left everything and followed you.’Jesus said, ‘Truly I tell you, there is no one who has left house or brothers or sisters or mother or father or children or fields, for my sake and for the sake of the good news, who will not receive a hundredfold now in this age houses, brothers and sisters, mothers and children, and fields, with persecutions and in the age to come eternal life.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 19-20/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: A Critical Reading of Today’s Speech by Terrorist Hassan Nasrallah/September 19/ 2024
The Cyber Strike That Exposed Hezbollah’s Delusional Myth Justifies Its Eradication
Elias Bejjani/September 18/ 2024
Explosives put in devices before they arrived in Lebanon, says Lebanon’s UN mission
US says no change to its military posture in Middle East amid attacks in Lebanon
Israeli planes bomb southern Lebanon after radio blasts
Supply chain mystery surrounds how Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies were turned into miniature bombs
Below Text and Video link Of Hassan Nasrallh's Speech
Hezbollah chief says group suffered ‘major’ blow in device blasts
In Hezbollah leader’s speech are signs of a group driven deeper underground
Israeli Airstrikes and Border Clashes Heighten Tensions
New Hearing in Riad Salameh Case/Next Hearing in Salameh's Case Set for Thursday
The Pager Operation: Key Details and Pressing Questions
The New Warfare: A Digital Checkmate in the Age of Conflict
Booby-Trapped Pagers and Walkie-Talkies: From Build to Blast
'We are afraid': Lebanese FM reacts to wave of explosions across country
Iran outraged its ambassador to Lebanon was harmed in pager attack - anaylsis
Israel's tactical edge against Hezbollah marred by tragic Gaza loss - editorial
West Point expert calls Hezbollah pager attack 'unprecedented' in scale
Reporter's Notebook: Kiryat Shmona under Hezbollah rocket fire for 11 months of war
Hezbollah vows revenge after deadly pager attack on members - analysis
Israeli shell company behind explosive pagers used by Hezbollah - NYT

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 19-20/2024
Secret single-stage deal could see all hostages released, Sinwar exiled from Gaza
Israel thwarts Iran's plot to assassinate Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Ronen Bar
US believes Gaza ceasefire deal unlikely in Biden's term, WSJ reports
With little prospect for a deal, Israel floats Sinwar exile proposal to Biden
Israeli soldiers pushed three apparently lifeless bodies from roofs during a West Bank raid
Region ‘closest to war since 1973’: Saudi envoy to UK
Six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in occupied West Bank’s Qabatiya
Houthis abduct 5 former ruling party members in Sanaa
At UN Iran and Europeans to test diplomacy with US election looming
Trump cancels appearance with Polish President Duda in Pennsylvania
European Parliament calls for EU countries to loosen Ukraine weapons restrictions
Putin ally warns West of nuclear war over Ukraine
Mexican president blames the US for bloodshed in Sinaloa as cartel violence surges
Dozens killed in Mali attack by Al Qaeda affiliate

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on September 19-20/2024
Why Is Hamas So Confident That It's Winning?/Jonathan S. Tobin/JNS (Jewish News Syndicate)/September 19, 2024
EU-Iran relations close to crisis point/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/September 19, 2024
Ball in Europe’s court over Ukraine ceasefire talks/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/September 19, 2024
Pezeshkian’s visit highlights Iraq’s strategic balancing act/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/September 19, 2024
Opinion - Paging Iran/Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet, Opinion Contributors/The Hill/ September 19, 2024
How did pagers explode in Lebanon and why was Hezbollah using them? Here’s what we know/Tara John, Tamara Qiblawi, Oren Liebermann, Avery Schmitz and Yong Xiong, CNN/Wed, September 19/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 19-20/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: A Critical Reading of Today’s Speech by Terrorist Hassan Nasrallah
Elias Bejjani/September 19/ 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134639/
In analyzing today’s speech by Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s terrorist mouthpiece and delusional hallucinator—Lebanon’s foremost enemy and traitor—it is wise to be reminded of the timeless biblical warning:
Isaiah 33:1 – “Our enemies are doomed! They have robbed and betrayed, although no one has robbed them or betrayed them. But their time to rob and betray will end, and they themselves will become victims of robbery and treachery.”
Nasrallah’s speech today, like every one before it, was a hollow echo of his delusions, promoting an evil ideology steeped in death, deception, and blasphemous distortions. It was an insult to the intelligence of the Lebanese people, filled with the same tired deceit he has ruminated on for years under the following four themes:
01-Manipulating religion – Twisting sacred principles to deceive the ignorant, offering hollow promises of divine victories that are, in reality, catastrophic defeats.
02-Mocking adversaries – Ridiculing the United States, the West, Israel, and moderate Arab nations while ignoring the moral and military decay of Hezbollah itself.
03-Empty threats and bravado – Spewing imaginary threats that far exceed his own capabilities or those of his Iranian Mullahs’ masters, exposing the impotence of Hezbollah’s so-called resistance.
04- Demonizing dissent – Vilifying those who oppose Iran’s imperialist and terror-driven agenda as traitors, labeling them stupid and less than human. This arrogance is a symptom of his delusional mentality, denying the freedom, rights, and legitimate sovereignty of others.
His speech of today was nothing more than a nauseating repetition of populist, bragging, and sectarian rhetoric. He offered nothing new—no acknowledgment of his terrorist organization Hezbollah’s numerous defeats, and no recognition of the crumbling credibility it is facing.
Despite repeated calls from numerous politicians and prominent Lebanese figures to admit defeat, surrender Hezbollah’s arms to the Lebanese state, and comply with UN Resolutions related to Lebanon (Armistice Accord, 1559, 1701, and 1860), Nasrallah’s arrogance and deeply rooted Jihadism agenda blinded him to reality. He ignored the unprecedented Israeli ‘Pager” offensive that crushed his Iranian-controlled organization, neutralizing 5,000 of its fighters in three minutes.
Even in the face of such a devastating defeat, he shamelessly declared what he absurdly calls a ‘divine victory,’ continuing to push for death and war as his only solution.
In conclusion, Hezbollah—along with its sectarian, ideological puppet masters in Iran—represents an existential threat, not just to Lebanon and its peace-loving people, but to the Arab world, civilization, humanity, and global-reginal stability. Hezbollah is not Lebanon’s defender; it is the enemy within, a mercenary force serving Iran’s expansionist, delusional satanic ambitions.
Dear Lebanese brothers and sisters: Know your true enemies.
The Iranian mullahs and their proxies—chief among them Hezbollah, the so-called ‘Party of God’—are the real enemies, and the true betrayers of Lebanon. They are the cause of Lebanese sufferings. The time has come to dismantle this terrorist Iranian organization, reclaim Lebanon’s sovereignty, implement the UN resolutions, and arrest all its leaders to put them on trial for treason, crimes, and acts of terrorism.

The Cyber Strike That Exposed Hezbollah’s  Delusional Myth Justifies Its Eradication
Elias Bejjani/September 18/ 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/09/134575/
There is no doubt that Israel’s surprising and unprecedented cyber strike on the terrorist Hezbollah has shattered the myth of its military strength, exposing its lies and delusions. This strike signals the inevitable and imminent eradication of this cancerous entity. Propped up by Iran, Hezbollah has occupied Lebanon, spreading corruption, destruction, and moral decay. Its leaders terrorize the Lebanese people, particularly the Shiite community, who remain hostages under the guise of sectarianism.
Driven by madness and arrogance, Hezbollah’s leadership brands anyone who opposes them as a traitor. Their oppressive actions have debased every Lebanese national value. Fanatics like Nawaf al-Moussawi, who glorified the assassination of President Bashir Gemayel and openly threatened future presidents, embody Hezbollah’s utter contempt for Lebanon’s sovereignty.
This strike on Hezbollah's infrastructure is not a cause for joy, but a rightful and necessary response to a group that has chosen violence and death as its path.
Hezbollah’s fighters, who sanctify death and proudly declare themselves mere pawns for their leaders, have inflicted untold suffering not only on Lebanon but across Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
The victims of today’s strike were Hezbollah operatives, not civilians. This decisive blow has laid bare Hezbollah’s vulnerability, signaling the decline of its military effectiveness.
Since 2005, Hezbollah has held Lebanon hostage, reducing its leaders to mere puppets.
Lebanon will never reclaim its independence, sovereignty, or freedom as long as Hezbollah remains in control.
The only path to Lebanon’s liberation is through the immediate implementation of United Nations resolutions, including the Armistice Accords and Resolutions 1559, 1701, and 1680.
In conclusion, Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy and terrorist organization—is a cancer devouring Lebanon and dragging it back to the stone ages. Its complete eradication is the only cure for Lebanon’s grave dilemmas and suffering.

Explosives put in devices before they arrived in Lebanon, says Lebanon’s UN mission
Reuters/September 19, 2024
UNITED NATIONS: A preliminary investigation by Lebanese authorities into the communications devices that blew up in Lebanon this week found that they were implanted with explosives before arriving in the country, according to a letter sent to the UN Security Council by Lebanon’s mission to the United Nations. The authorities also determined the devices, which included pagers and hand-held radios, were detonated by sending electronic messages to the devices, says the letter, seen by Reuters on Thursday. Israel was responsible for the planning and execution of the attacks, Lebanon’s UN mission said.
The 15-member Security Council is due to meet on Friday over the blasts. The attacks on Hezbollah’s communications equipment on Tuesday and Wednesday killed 37 people and wounded around 3,000, overwhelming Lebanese hospitals and wreaking bloody havoc on the militant group. Israel has not directly commented on the attacks, which security sources say were probably carried out by its Mossad spy agency, which has a long history of carrying out sophisticated attacks on foreign soil.

US says no change to its military posture in Middle East amid attacks in Lebanon
Reuters/September 19, 2024
WASHINGTON: There are no changes to US military posture in the Middle East, the Pentagon told reporters on Thursday when asked about recent deadly Israeli attacks in Lebanon that blew up Hezbollah radios and pagers.
Lebanon and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group have blamed Israel for attacks on Hezbollah’s communications equipment that killed 37 people and wounded around 3,000, overwhelming Lebanese hospitals and wreaking bloody havoc on the militant group.
“I am not tracking any force posture changes in the Eastern Med or in the Central Command area of responsibility,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said in a press briefing. The Pentagon said that any attack that escalates tensions in the Middle East will not be helpful. “In pretty much every call the secretary always reiterates the need (that) we want to see regional tensions quell,” Singh said when asked about Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin’s call on Wednesday with his Israeli counterpart. “We’ve never wanted to see a wider regional conflict.” Israel has not directly commented on the attacks, which security sources say were probably carried out by its Mossad spy agency. The Pentagon was pressed on the potential for a Gaza ceasefire deal amid escalating regional tensions and said Washington did not believe a deal was falling apart. The spokesperson added that the US felt as of now the conflict was contained to Gaza.
President Joe Biden laid out a three phase Gaza ceasefire proposal on May 31. The deal has run into obstacles since. Critics have urged Washington to use its leverage by conditioning military support to Israel but the US has maintained its support for its ally.
The attacks in Lebanon have raised concerns about the widening of Israel’s war in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands, caused a hunger crisis and led to genocide allegations at the World Court that Israel denies. Israel’s assault on Gaza followed a deadly Oct. 7 attack by Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

Israeli planes bomb southern Lebanon after radio blasts
Reuters/September 19, 2024
BEIRUT/JERUSALEM: Israel bombed southern Lebanon on Thursday and said it had thwarted an Iranian-led assassination plot after explosions in booby-trapped radios and pagers in the past two days caused bloody havoc in the ranks of its arch-foe Hezbollah.
Air strikes hit “hundreds of rocket launcher barrels” ready to be fired toward Israel as well as “approximately 100 launchers and additional terrorist infrastructure sites,” the Israeli army said in a statement. The attacks on Hezbollah’s communications equipment killed 37 people and wounded around 3,000, raising fears that a full-blown war was imminent. The action also sowed disarray across Lebanon as panicked residents abandoned their mobile phones. “This isn’t a small matter, it’s war. Who can even secure their phone now? When I heard about what happened yesterday, I left my phone on my motorcycle and walked away,” said Mustafa Sibal on a street in Beirut. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied being behind the attacks but multiple security sources have said they were carried out by its spy agency Mossad.
The Lebanese army said on Thursday it was blowing up pagers and suspicious telecom devices in controlled blasts in different areas. It called on citizens to report any suspicious devices. Lebanese authorities banned walkie-talkies and pagers from being taken on flights from Beirut airport until further notice, the National News Agency reported. Such devices were also banned from being shipped by air. In Beirut on Thursday, a distant roar in the skies could be heard from what state media said was Israeli warplanes breaking the sound barrier — a noise that has become common in recent months. Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel on the day after the Oct. 7 cross-border attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas which triggered the Gaza war, and since then constant exchanges of fire have occurred, although neither side has allowed this to escalate into a full-scale war. Israel said its warplanes struck villages in southern Lebanon overnight, and a security source and Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV reported airstrikes near the border began again on Thursday just after midday. Hand-held radios used by Hezbollah detonated on Wednesday across Lebanon’s south.
The previous day, hundreds of pagers — used by Hezbollah to evade mobile phone surveillance — exploded at once, killing 12 people including two children, and injuring more than 2,300. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on the United Nations Security Council to take a firm stand to stop what he called Israel’s “aggression” and “technological war” against his country. Israel says its conflict with Hezbollah, like its war in Gaza against Hamas, is part of a wider regional confrontation with Iran, which sponsors both groups as well as armed movements in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
Assassination plot
Also on Thursday, Israeli security forces said that an Israeli businessman had been arrested last month after attending at least two meetings in Iran where he discussed assassinating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the defense minister or the head of the Shin Bet spy agency. Last week, Shin Bet uncovered what it said was a plot by Hezbollah to assassinate former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. Israel has been accused of assassinations including a blast in Tehran that killed the leader of Hamas and another in a Beirut suburb that killed a senior Hezbollah commander within hours of each other in July.
Despite the events of the past few days, a spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon said the situation along the frontier had “not changed much in terms of exchanges of fire between the parties.”“There was an intensification last week. This week it is more or less the same. There are still exchanges of fire. It is still worrying, still concerning, and the rhetoric is high,” the spokesperson, Andrea Tenenti, said. Tens of thousands of people have had to flee the Israel-Lebanon border area on both sides since the hostilities began in October.
Shifting focus
The Israeli military said its overnight air strikes hit Hezbollah targets in Chihine, Tayibe, Blida, Meiss El Jabal, Aitaroun and Kfarkela in southern Lebanon, as well as a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the area of Khiam. On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the war was moving into a new phase, with more resources and military units being shifted to the northern border. According to Israeli officials, the forces being deployed there include the 98th Division, an elite formation including commando and paratrooper elements that has been fighting in Gaza.

Supply chain mystery surrounds how Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies were turned into miniature bombs
Christiaan Hetzner/Fortune/September 19, 2024
Two straight days of explosions surgically targeting Hezbollah militants across Lebanon pulled the covers off what appears to be an elaborate and sophisticated mass infiltration by Israel of the supply chain equipping its enemy.
On Tuesday, thousands of pagers booby-trapped with explosives blew up at the same time before an unknown number of two-way radios were triggered to detonate just 24 hours later. The coordinated attacks on Hezbollah, a Shiite paramilitary backed by Iran, are estimated to have killed over two dozen people and incapacitated scores more. Experts are still puzzling together evidence in the hopes of explaining how this remarkable feat was achieved. But one thing is clear, it dramatically hurts Hezbollah’s capacity to target IDF positions in the north of Israel.
“In two waves—each in a matter of minutes—Hezbollah lost thousands of its battle-ready militants in an impactful operation that seriously disrupted its command-and-control capabilities,” wrote Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and author, in comments to Fortune. Two children were also among the dead, and more than 2,800 people have been injured—many of whom may be innocent. “This was a brilliant operation in terms of intelligence and execution — truly on a global scale,” Israeli reserve brigadier general Amir Avivi was quoted by Bloomberg. “I have been saying for many years that we are good at missions and bad at wars.”
Who made the exploding pagers?
The pagers that blew up on Tuesday were a model sold under the brand Gold Apollo.
Hsu Ching-kuang, founder and president of the Taiwanese company, said however he had granted authorization for a Hungarian company called BAC Consulting to engineer and manufacture the pager in question using his trademark. “They designed it themselves,” he said in comments quoted by the Associated Press. Gold Apollo merely collected a royalty fee for granting them use of his company’s brand, according to his statement. When German publicly funded broadcaster DW sought out the company at its Budapest address, the trail ran cold. All it found to confirm its sheer existence was a page of paper with its name printed in conventional inkjet. This suggests it was working only as a shell company to provide the cover of a legitimate enterprise. Israel's allies may have intercepted devices en route to Hezbollah. Company CEO Cristiana Bársony-Arcidiacono furthermore refuted any direct involvement in their manufacturing. “I do not make the pagers. I am just the intermediary,” she told NBC News. She did not say who was responsible for their manufacture, and Bársony-Arcidiacono did not respond to a Fortune request for comment.
While it's conceivable an Israeli company manufactured the pagers, it could also have been a company linked to Hezbollah that simply wished to remain in the shadows.
Brussels-based military analyst Elijah Magnier suggested another possibility: Israel was most likely tipped off by friendly intelligence services in the Middle East that ensured the pagers would be held up en route before reaching Hezbollah.
They could then grant Israeli agents enough time and access to the devices to manually implant the explosives across thousands of pagers likely hidden directly within their lithium-ion battery cells. “They had all the time in the world,” he told Al Jazeera’s English language service on Wednesday.
Radios may have been procured on the black market. How exactly the walkie-talkies were compromised is also a mystery at this point. Visual evidence suggests the devices were two-way ham radios sold by the Japanese company Icom, a leading manufacturer. However, the company said it had discontinued all production of the model in question, the IC-V82, around ten years ago. Icom also no longer supplies replacement battery packs. Hezbollah operatives could have procured the handheld radios from any number of sources without relying on written records that could be traced to them—for an organization designated as terrorists by most western governments it would make sense to cover one’s own tracks. The IC-V82s may also not have been originals, but cheap knockoffs from the black market, which are impossible to trace.
“A hologram seal to distinguish counterfeit products was not attached, so it is not possible to confirm whether the product shipped from our company,” Icom said in a statement to the BBC. With so many details unclear, it may be weeks, months or even years before substantive light can be shed on this week’s events.
History of booby-trapping communications devices
The Israeli government has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility, and the office of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not respond to a Fortune request for comment. But the country's intelligence services have demonstrated multiple times in the past the capacity to target enemy operatives surgically. Yahya Ayyash, a ranking figure in Hamas’ military wing, was assassinated back in 1996 after his booby-trapped mobile telephone exploded. This scale, however, appears unprecedented. “You can do it to a single device remotely, and even then, you can’t be sure if it will catch fire or actually explode,” one anonymous ex-Israeli counterterrorism official told the Financial Times. “To do it to hundreds of devices at the same time? That would be incredible sophistication.”The operation comes shortly after the targeted assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, where the top Hamas figure had been a personal guest of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and days before the one-year anniversary of the October 7th attack by Hamas that killed roughly 1,200 Israelis. The price of Europe’s North Sea ‘Brent’, the global crude oil benchmark, jumped 1.3% to $73.70 a barrel as fears of a broader conflagration in the Middle East returned.
Hezbollah's military effectiveness likely crippled
Should the Israeli government be behind the attack, as is widely believed, it would have succeeded in compromising the very supply of Hezbollah’s critical infrastructure. By wiping out much of their communications in one fell swoop, it cripples their ability to respond effectively to an Israeli attack as the focus shifts from fighting Hamas in Gaza to the north of the country and Hezbollah. “The loss of [Hezbollah's] wireless communications capabilities severely compromises its flexibility, connectivity, and maneuverability,” Melamed told Fortune. Furthermore, any machine powered by a lithium-ion battery could potentially be a miniature time bomb and, therefore, is now suspect. Combing through their supplies to locate vulnerabilities diverts attention away from the battlefield. “Hezbollah will now thoroughly scrutinize anything remotely serving as a communications device,” Fabian Hinz, a military analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an interview with German television broadcaster ZDF on Thursday. “Examining everything they have procured for explosives will prove a mammoth task.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Below Text and Video link Of Hassan Nasrallh's Speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrsGhfn6eSo
Sayyed Nasrallah: Difficult Reckoning Awaits ‘Israel’, Hezbollah Won’t Stop Pro-Gaza Front
Sayyed NasrallahHezbollah S.G. Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah delivering televised speech via
Marwa Haidar/Al-Manar (Thursday, September 19, 2024).
*Videos subtitled by Mohammad Salami
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said clear on Wednesday: The devices massacres that killed or injured thousands in Lebanon will be met with a difficult reckoning and won’t force the Lebanese resistance group from assuming its religious and moral duty of supporting the oppressed people of Gaza and Palestine.
In an awaited speech after the pager and wireless device blasts in Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that such attacks aimed at pressing Hezbollah to stop its pro-Gaza strikes against the Israeli enemy. However, he stressed, “in the name of the martyrs, the wounded and those who lost their eyes along with their families,” that the Lebanese support front will remain unwavering until the aggression against Gaza stops. The Hezbollah chief, meanwhile, didn’t set temporal boundaries to the group’s retaliation for Tuesday and Wednesday’s attacks, stressing that “a difficult reckoning awaits the Israeli enemy.” “Regarding the difficult reckoning, the news (response) is what you will see, not what you hear about, because we are in the most delicate, sensitive and profound phase of the confrontation.” Responding to Israeli threats of establishing a so-called security zone in south Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that any Israeli incursion into the Lebanese territory is a wish and a historic opportunity for Hezbollah.
Pagers, Devices Massacres
As he extended congratulations and warmest condolences to the families of martyrs who fell in the past two day in pager and wireless device attacks, Sayyed Nasrallah lauded the national unity in face of the Israeli aggression and thanked the Lebanese government and the entire health sector in Lebanon.His eminence also thanked countries who offered and provided support to the Lebanese government.
Sayyed Nasrallah pager blasts
The Hezbollah S.G. stressed that the Israeli enemy crossed the red lines on Tuesday as it detonated thousands of pager devices simultaneously. “The enemy used a civilian tool used by large segments of society and did so again on Wednesday by blowing up wireless devices.”He said that the “enemy assumed that the number of pagers surpasses 4000, and thus it was intending to deliberately kill 4,000 people in one minute.”“The enemy intended to kill thousands on the second day, as well, meaning that throughout two days the Israeli enemy wanted to kill no less than 5,000 people in few minutes,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.
“What happened is a genocide and a major massacre, to be added to the horrible massacres committed by the enemy since the creation of this cancerous tumor in our region. It can be called a declaration of war or anything else.”
Investigation Follow-up
The Hezbollah chief said, however that the goals of the Israeli enemy’s attacks were disrupted “thanks to Allah’s kindness and to the sincere stance of the honorable people.”
Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance group formed technical and security committees to investigate the latest attacks. “Hypotheses are being studied and we have reached a near conclusion,” Sayyed Nasrallah said. “This file is under investigation and close follow-up, whether regarding the manufacturer, transporter, distributor and customs” involved with the rigged pagers, his eminence added. Sayyed Nasrallah acknowledged that the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday are major blow, but stressed that Hezbollah organizational structure wasn’t harmed. “There is no doubt that we have been exposed to a major and unprecedented blow on the security and humanitarian levels. This is the case in the war, and we know that our enemy has superiority on the technological level because it’s backed by the West.” “Tuesday and Wednesday were bloody days, but we will be able to overcome this ordeal and this blow won’t bring us down,” his eminence affirmed.
Pro-Gaza Front
On the other hand, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the Lebanese front to support Gaza has been effective and put great pressure on the Israeli enemy. “When the enemy describes the events in the north as the first historical defeat for ‘Israel’, it is another evidence of the effectiveness of our front. The enemy attempted to separate the Lebanese front from the Gaza front and threatened war in a bid to press the Lebanese state, people, and resistance in Lebanon in order to stop this front.” The Hezbollah S.G. said the massacres on Tuesday and Wednesday came in the context of pressure on the Lebanese resistance group in a bid to stop this front. Sayyed Nasrallah, in this context, revealed that after Tuesday’s massacre, “we received messages via official and unofficial channels saying that our goal from this attack was for you to stop supporting Gaza.”
To Stop the Front… A Dream
The Hezbollah chief addressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
“We say to Gallant and Netanyahu that Lebanon front will not stop before the aggression on Gaza stops. The resistance in Lebanon won’t stop supporting and assisting Gaza, the West Bank, and the oppressed people in those holy lands.”
“You won’t be able to ‘return’ the settlers to the north and do whatever you want. This is a big challenge between us and you, and the only way is to stop the war on Gaza,” Sayyed Nasrallah added, addressing the Israeli PM and DM.
His eminence said the Israeli enemy aimed to exhaust the resistance environment through these large-scale attacks, adding that the Zionist regime “worked to make this environment raise the voice against the resistance leadership.”
“However, this goal was also foiled on Tuesday and Wednesday. The enemy also aimed through the massacres to strike Hezbollah’s command and control system and to spread a state of weakness and confusion among its leadership, and this has never happened for a single moment.” “Today I assure that the resistance’s organizational structure was not shaken and thanks to the sacrifices of our people this structure is strong and cohesive enough. What happened affected neither our resolve, our command and control system, our readiness, nor our presence on the fronts, but rather it will increase our strength and presence.”
“Settlers Won’t Return to North”
Sayyed Nasrallah also cited a suggestion by the chief of the Israeli Northern Command who called for establishing a so-called security zone inside the Lebanese territory.
“I tell him we hope so. The Zionist soldiers resort to hiding procedures in the northern front and we are looking for them and their tanks to target, but if they decide to move we say they are welcome.”In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that any Israeli incursion into the Lebanese territory is a historic opportunity to the resistance group. “The security zone will turn into a hell for your army if you want to come to our land, you will be met by hundreds of those who were injured on Tuesday and Wednesday because they became more determined.”
Severe Reckoning
Sayyed Nasrallah stressed, meanwhile that a severe reckoning awaits the Israeli enemy in retaliation to the pager and device attacks. “Allow me to speak with a different tone today, for this attack was done covertly. The reckoning will come, and it will be severe. It will be from sources they could never imagine. I will not speak about a date or time. You will know of it when it happens; you will not hear about it before.”“The real news lies in what you will see, not what you will hear, and we are keeping it within a very tight circle,” the Hezbollah leader added.
Sayyed Nasrallah page blasts speech
He concluded by saying that Gallant and Netanyahu “are leading their entity to the abyss.”
This item is being updated…
Source: AFP (edited by Al-Manar English Website staff)

Hezbollah chief says group suffered ‘major’ blow in device blasts
AFP/September 19, 2024
BEIRUT: Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged Thursday his powerful group had suffered an “unprecedented” blow when thousands of operatives’ communication devices exploded in attacks it blamed on Israel.
Israel has not commented on the attacks that killed 37 people and wounded nearly 3,000 across Lebanon over two days but has said it will widen the scope of its war in Gaza to include the Lebanon front. Delivering a speech after the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday, which plunged Lebanon into panic, Nasrallah struck a defiant tone, warning that Israel would receive “just punishment” for the attacks. Describing the attacks as a possible “act of war,” he said Israel would face “tough retribution and just punishment, where it expects it and where it does not.”“It could be a war crime or a declaration of war,” he said of the attacks, which he branded a “massacre.”Nasrallah also vowed to keep up Hezbollah’s fight against Israel until a ceasefire in Gaza is reached. “The Lebanese front will not stop until the aggression on Gaza stops” despite “all this blood spilt,” he said.
Nasrallah addressed Israeli officials’ promises to return thousands of Israelis displaced by exchanges of fire across the border with Lebanon to their homes. “You will not be able to return the people of the north to the north,” he said, warning that “no military escalation, no killings, no assassinations and no all-out war can return residents to the border.” Hezbollah is an ally of Palestinian militant group Hamas, which on October 7 launched an unprecedented attack on Israel that sparked Gaza’s deadliest ever war.
Up until now, the focus of Israel’s firepower had been on Gaza. But Israel’s northern border with Lebanon has seen exchanges of fire between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants almost every day since October. The violence has killed hundreds of people, mostly fighters, on the Lebanese side, and dozens on the Israeli side. Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier over Beirut as Nasrallah spoke, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said, with AFP correspondents in Beirut reporting loud booms. Nasrallah announced the launch of an internal probe into the attacks, which experts and some Israeli media have said bear all the hallmarks of Israeli intelligence agency Mossad.

In Hezbollah leader’s speech are signs of a group driven deeper underground
Analysis by Tamara Qiblawi/CNN/September 19, 2024
Hezbollah is on the backfoot. The first sign of that was the absence of a public gathering – typically consisting of high-level party officials and supporters – to watch the militant group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah deliver a televised speech on Thursday.
The second sign was that Nasrallah’s address – his first since two waves of attacks detonated thousands of Hezbollah wireless devices earlier this week – was very possibly pre-recorded. The leader of the powerful militant group has not delivered a speech in person since the start of Lebanon’s last all-out war with Israel in 2006. But he will often make a point of proving that his broadcasts are being carried by a live transmission. In his speech last month, for example, Nasrallah referenced two sonic booms caused by Israeli jets that had broken the sound barrier over Beirut. These happened in the seconds leading up to the start of his address. Thursday’s speech was billed as a live transmission, but audiences were given reason to doubt around 20 minutes in, when Israel dropped flares over the Lebanese capital and sent windows shaking with a fresh wave of sonic booms. The roar reverberated throughout the city yet the Beirut-based militant leader neither flinched nor referenced the incident during his speech.
Israel’s fighter jets seemed intent to underscore the gains of Tuesday and Wednesday’s attacks on Hezbollah’s wireless devices: the group had been driven deeper underground.
“Without a doubt, we have suffered a major blow,” said Nasrallah in his speech on Thursday. “(It is) unprecedented in the history of the resistance in Lebanon at least, unprecedented in the history of Lebanon, and it may be unprecedented in the history of the conflict with the Israeli enemy across the entire region.”
Thousands of small explosions swept through the pockets and homes of Hezbollah members this week, targeting pagers on Tuesday, and then walkie-talkies on Wednesday; in all, the blasts killed at least 37, including some children, and injured nearly 3000. The attack, dystopian in its style and scale, blindsided the group that had opted for analogue technologies after forgoing cell phones to avoid Israeli infiltration.
Nasrallah vowed a “reckoning” but was scant on the details. The attack “will be met with a reckoning and fair punishment in ways that they expect and don’t expect,” he said.
But he continued with an unmistakably subdued tone. “However, because this battle was carried out by invisible faces, you must allow me to change my style,” he said.
“The reckoning will come. Its nature, scope, when and where … that’s something we will definitely keep to ourselves,” he added. “Within the tightest circle, even within ourselves, because we are in the most precise, sensitive and deeply significant part of the battle.”
People gather outside American University of Beirut Medical Center as more than 1,000 people were wounded when the pagers they use to communicate exploded in Beirut, Lebanon, on September 17. - Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
Nasrallah tried to buoy the sober speech by extolling what he described as strategic gains of nearly a year of confrontations with Israeli forces on the Lebanon-Israel border. He also vowed to continue striking Israeli positions until Israel’s offensive in Gaza ends.
“We’ve been saying this for 11 months; we might be repeating ourselves, but this statement comes after these two major blows, after all these martyrs, wounds, and pain,” said Nasrallah. “I say clearly: no matter the sacrifices, consequences, or future possibilities, the resistance in Lebanon will not stop supporting Gaza.” Responding to Israeli threats of creating a security buffer zone in Lebanon’s southern border area, Nasrallah struck a defiant tone, “welcoming” Israeli troops into the territory where he said Hezbollah militants would swiftly seize the opportunity to attack them.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, people are continuing to reel from the attacks that overwhelmed hospitals with wounded people, mostly with deep flesh wounds to the eyes and face. Hezbollah will likely recede further into the shadows and regroup about their methods. During the 2006 war, the militant group’s Al-Manar television was on air for the duration of the 34-day conflict, despite Israel’s heavy-handed bombing campaign. Live broadcasts have long been hailed by Hezbollah as a symbol of defiance against the long arm of Israeli spyware, and their ability to keep broadcasting against the odds has been a point of pride for the group – lending it a mythical quality among its Lebanese constituents and even some of its detractors. But this week’s attacks on wireless devices punctured that aura. Hezbollah – which literally translates into Party of God – has been rattled, forced to contend with the new reality that it is more exposed than it has ever believed itself to be.

Israeli Airstrikes and Border Clashes Heighten Tensions
This Is Beirut/September 19/2024
Southern Lebanon witnessed a series of Israeli airstrikes in the early hours of Thursday. Israeli warplanes conducted a strike at dawn on Thursday, targeting two locations in the town of Kfar Kila with four missiles. Another airstrike hit the area between Jebbayn and Chihine, while artillery shelling was directed at Yater and Hadatha. Israeli jets also bombarded several other areas, including Taybeh, Blida, Mays al-Jabal, Aitaroun, and Kfar Kila. Khiam was struck around midnight, followed by attacks on Beit Lif, Aita al-Jabal, Ramya, and Jabal Balat. Subsequent strikes targeted Taybeh, al-Salhani, and Mays al-Jabal. Intense air activity was reported over Nabatieh, Iqlim al-Tuffah, Zahrani, and Tyre. Aitaroun and Mays al-Jabal were also hit, with incendiary shells sparking fires near Alma al-Shaab and Naqoura. The Israeli military employed phosphorus and smoke shells on the outskirts of Aita al-Shaab and Ramya, resulting in thick smoke along the border. The Israeli military confirmed strikes on Hezbollah military sites and a weapons depot in Khiam. Artillery fire was directed at Marwahin and Rmeish, while air raid sirens sounded at the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura. On another note, Israeli drones were reported to be hovering over the southern suburbs of Beirut all morning.
On the Other Side of the Border
In a significant escalation, armed clashes erupted along the Lebanon-Israel border on Thursday morning. RT quoted Israeli media reporting the death of an Israeli soldier. Other media reported that at least eight people were wounded in an anti-tank guided missile attack on the Lebanese border. According to Israeli media, “Rambam Hospital in Haifa and Ziv Hospital in Safed say the medical centers have admitted eight people, including two in moderate-to-serious condition. The rest are lightly hurt, according to the hospitals.”The Hezbollah attack from Lebanon struck the Ramim Ridge area. For its part, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for an attack on an Israeli position at the Marj site in the morning, causing casualties, including deaths and injuries.

New Hearing in Riad Salameh Case/Next Hearing in Salameh's Case Set for Thursday
This Is Beirut/September 19/2024
A new hearing in the case of former Central Bank governor Riad Salameh was held on Thursday before Beirut’s First Investigating Judge, Bilal Halawi. Lawyers Marwan Issa el-Khoury and Michel Tueni were present at the session. Salameh’s attorney, Marc Habka, submitted a request for his client’s release. The request is pending the opinion of the Financial Public Prosecutor’s Office. After the questioning, Judge Halawi scheduled a follow-up session next Tuesday to continue investigating Tueni and Khoury.
A day prior, the Beirut Bar Association had lifted the immunity of both Michel Tueni and Marwan Issa el-Khoury.

The Pager Operation: Key Details and Pressing Questions
Bassam Abou Zeid/This Is Beirut/September 19/2024
Without firing a single shot, Israel managed to remove thousands of Hezbollah fighters from the battlefield in southern Lebanon. Some will be out of action for days, others for months, while some may never return to combat or their duties due to the severity of their injuries, which could permanently prevent them from resuming their roles.
Experts and analysts in the intelligence community agree that Israel’s operation is unprecedented in modern history. It is expected to become a major case study, with its meticulous planning and execution potentially featured in literature and cinema, and offering insights for other intelligence agencies that might consider employing similar tactics against their adversaries. Noteworthy for its advanced technology and precision, the operation’s timing remains a subject of debate.
In this operation, thousands of pagers exploded along with their carriers, as if Israel had secretly rigged these individuals. In reality, the people were unknowingly transporting explosive devices in their homes, vehicles, or workplaces. The operator waited for the right moment or political directive to detonate them, resulting in numerous deaths and injuries.
The key aspect of this operation is understanding the detonation mechanism.
Reports suggest that the server that processed the messages was compromised. The hackers sent messages that overwhelmed the devices, leading to overheating of the lithium batteries, causing them to explode.
An additional question arises: Were the explosions solely due to battery malfunctions, or were the devices deliberately rigged with explosives?
According to reports, it is improbable that the small lithium batteries in these devices could have caused the significant damage witnessed, such as fatalities and severe injuries. This leads to the conclusion that the devices were likely rigged with explosives. Experts suggest that approximately 20 grams of explosives were inserted into each device. Nonetheless, the exact method of remote detonation is uncertain, leaving questions about whether the battery overheating acted as the trigger or if another mechanism was employed.
It is worth noting that verifying the presence of explosives in these devices is relatively simple. Security agencies or Hezbollah can conduct laboratory tests on the remains of the exploded devices to determine if they contained explosive residues.
Following Hezbollah’s entry into conflict with Israel on October 8 last year, breaches in their communication networks have emerged as a critical issue, especially in light of the substantial losses among their members and leadership. One notable instance involves Fouad Shokr, who allegedly fell into a trap after receiving a deceptive phone call. Consequently, Hezbollah has discontinued the use of cell phones and taken down street surveillance cameras, considering them compromised. The party’s security apparatus is now searching for secure communication devices to supplement their existing landline network. They have identified pagers as a potential solution and have decided to increase their use, based on information suggesting they had been used previously.
In this context, reports indicate that a shipment of 5,000 devices reached Hezbollah several months ago and was distributed among its members and leaders across various military and security units. These devices bear the logo of the Taiwanese company Gold Apollo. However, Gold Apollo has denied manufacturing these devices, revealing that a European company, specifically BAC in Hungary, holds a license from the Taiwanese firm to produce the AR-924 model. Furthermore, there are no records of any such devices being shipped from Taiwan to Lebanon.
Here lies the mystery: how did the Israelis find out that the shipment was intended for Hezbollah, and how did they manage to rig it with explosives?
Hezbollah does not purchase these devices directly; instead, it relies on third parties, or even multiple intermediaries, to obscure the final destination, safeguarding the deal from cancellation or security breaches. However, this time, Hezbollah’s precautions appear to have failed. Reports indicate that Israeli operatives uncovered the intended Hezbollah-bound devices and allegedly sabotaged them by embedding explosives, compromising their security and triggering their detonation. Nevertheless, certain knowledgeable sources assert that Hezbollah typically conducts rigorous safety checks before accepting sensitive equipment. The lingering question persists: did the Israelis succeed in outwitting Hezbollah by planting explosives that went undetected?
This Hollywood-style operation has sparked numerous questions, and uncovering clear answers may take years.

The New Warfare: A Digital Checkmate in the Age of Conflict
Salam Zaatari/This Is Beirut/September 19/2024
Never in the history of modern warfare have we witnessed such an attack. On Tuesday, Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers, killing 25 people, including two children, and injuring more than 3,000. This attack targeted Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria. Codenamed “Below the Belt,” the operation caused injuries primarily to the hip, groin, eyes, face, and hands. Hospitals in Beirut have been overwhelmed and are calling for blood donations. Many victims were holding and looking at the pagers when they exploded: a horrifying scene that’s hard to comprehend, reminiscent of a sci-fi movie or a Netflix series. As people focused on treating the injured and burying the victims, the following day brought more chaos: thousands of walkie-talkies exploded simultaneously, resulting in injuries and fires engulfing homes.
Israel was reportedly behind both attacks, though it has not taken public credit but did release a video of Netanyahu whistling right after the attack. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate. US officials have reportedly confirmed that Israel tampered with the pagers, adding a detonating switch that could be triggered remotely and a small amount of explosive material. Several experts suggest that the explosions were likely caused by supply-chain interference. Small explosive devices may have been embedded in the pagers before their delivery to Hezbollah and then triggered remotely, possibly via a radio signal. The method used to detonate the walkie-talkies remains unclear. This incident also indicates a significant security breach within Hezbollah, as the pagers may have been equipped with tracking devices that mapped the group’s movements.
The pager and walkie-talkie attacks — more extensive and destructive than past attacks involving phones — indicate a new level of sophistication in Israeli operations against Hezbollah.
Many civilians were injured or killed in the attacks, which could potentially violate Articles 51(3) and 48 of Protocol I of the Geneva Convention. Article 51(3) mandates protection for civilians not participating in hostilities, while Article 48 requires parties to conflicts to distinguish between civilians and combatants, as well as between civilian objects and military objectives.
So far, Israel seems to have a formidable influence over international cybersecurity, possessing the ability to hack into any device, monitor communications, and conduct espionage. It can harness data and manipulate internet-connected devices, ushering in a new era of warfare.
This reminds me of the famous phrase from George Orwell’s book 1984: ”Big Brother Is Watching You.” The novel paints a dystopian future where technology controls every aspect of human life, stripping away individual freedom and privacy. This suggests that Hezbollah’s deterrence theory has fallen.
What options does Hezbollah have for self-protection if Israel has mapped its entire digital footprint? With mobile phones, smartphones, pagers, walkie-talkies, Wi-Fi routers, email accounts compromised, and AI tools tracking digital movements, the attacks aim to cripple Hezbollah’s communications and logistics. The question arises: should cutting off internet access be considered?
Could the Lebanese government consider drastic measures to protect Hezbollah and its infrastructure? In this context, an internet blackout might appear as a viable defensive tactic to thwart Israeli cyberattacks, especially during heightened tensions. However, such an action could have catastrophic consequences.
One of the most immediate effects of cutting off the internet would be a severe impact on Lebanon’s already fragile economy, leading to financial losses for the banking sector and money-wiring companies. It would also isolate communities, forcing communication to shift to analog methods.
An internet shutdown would hinder the flow of information, making it difficult for citizens to stay informed about developments. This could lead to panic and misinformation, worsening the situation. The impacts on the economy, social fabric, healthcare services, and overall security could far outweigh the perceived benefits. If an internet blackout isn’t feasible, how might Hezbollah respond? It seems that Israel is provoking Hezbollah to retaliate, with Netanyahu seemingly seeking war. Is Hezbollah prepared to act despite these losses? Retaliation is anticipated by many.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel’s focus has moved to the northern front as a “new phase” of the war is beginning.
Washington has communicated clearly to Israel its desire to avoid a full-scale war, and Iran has aligned with the US in urging restraint, particularly in the months leading up to the elections. Would Hezbollah still retaliate without a clear signal from Iran? This situation feels like a checkmate: it could either escalate into a major conflict, with Hezbollah potentially launching thousands of rockets instead of hundreds, or it could lead to disastrous outcomes for both sides. It could represent a new phase of conflict, potentially leading the US to support Israel as Netanyahu desires, in order to secure the northern front. Nasrallah’s upcoming speech may provide insights into whether Iran intends to fully back Hezbollah before negotiating a new nuclear deal with a new administration or whether it will continue to support its ally while engaging in negotiations with the US.

Booby-Trapped Pagers and Walkie-Talkies: From Build to Blast
Natasha Metni Torbey/This Is Beirut/September 19/2024
Once again, Lebanon was rocked by a wave of explosions that struck multiple regions on Wednesday afternoon. This time, the blasts were caused by Hezbollah walkie-talkies, specifically the Icom IC-F2100DT VHF model, reportedly manufactured by Icom Inc. (Aikomu Kabushiki-gaisha), a Japanese company specializing in radio communication equipment, founded in 1954 by Tokuzo Inoue under the name “Inoue.” Several deaths and injuries were reported, adding to the thousands already affected since Tuesday, when pagers belonging to members of the pro-Iranian group exploded.
In the investigation of the booby-trapped pagers that detonated across Lebanon on Tuesday, attention has focused on the Hungarian company BAC Consulting KFT due to its links with Voltaker KFT and its contract with the Taiwanese firm Gold Apollo Ltd.
Accused of involvement in the booby-trapped pager attacks targeting Hezbollah, Taiwanese company Gold Apollo Ltd denied any role in manufacturing the devices despite them carrying its branding. In a statement released on Wednesday, the company claimed the devices were “designed and sold” by the Hungarian firm BAC Consulting KFT, whose website has been under maintenance since Wednesday morning.
BAC Consulting KFT: The Big Mystery
Established in May 2022, BAC Consulting KFT reported a revenue of 210 million forints (HUF) and a net profit of 13 million HUF for 2023. Its head office is 33/A Szőnyi út, District 14, Zugló, Budapest. However, Juli Butcher’s investigation for the Hungarian media outlet 444 reveals discrepancies about this location. “Our visit to BAC Consulting KFT’s supposed head office in Budapest uncovered that it is not the actual office. The building listed as the company’s address serves as a service provider hosting multiple businesses,” reports journalist Butcher, supported by photographic evidence. “This information is not uncommon; it is a domiciliation address,” explains Jean Sébastien Guillaume, founder of Celtic Intelligence. However, Guillaume highlights that “two companies registered at this address have ties to Russia, raising concerns about potential broader connections.”
According to Guillaume, “the association between BAC Consulting KFT and the two Russian companies, Alteko Action Trade KFT and Claywood Kereskedelmi és Szolgáltató KFT, might indicate a complex network of businesses registered at the same location.”
Although no direct link to Israeli services has been identified, the expert in economic and strategic intelligence asserts that “the intertwining of Russian, Hungarian, and international interests surrounding BAC Consulting could be crucial in the context of the explosive pager production.”
Further investigation into the company’s website archives, facilitated by Guillaume, reveals that BAC Consulting KFT is a public relations consultancy, not a telecommunications or battery manufacturing plant.
How could a manufacturing and distribution contract be awarded to a company without expertise in this field? Guillaume speculates that the contract may have been transferred from BAC Consulting KFT to Voltaker KFT, a company with over thirty years of experience located just a hundred meters from BAC in Hungary and recognized for its battery production for clients worldwide.
Another Key Hypothesis: Bársony-Arcidiacono Cristiana Rosaria
The identity of this woman in her forties has sparked interest following a review of her background. Who is she?
Bársony-Arcidiacono Cristiana Rosaria holds a Ph.D. in Physics from University College London (UCL). She furthered her studies at the London School of Economics and Political Science and completed post-graduate training in London. Fluent in seven languages, her career includes roles as a researcher at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), an expert with the European Commission, and positions at the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Her impressive CV highlights a diverse and accomplished professional history. Today, Bársony-Arcidiacono claims to have been the General Director of BAC Consulting since 2019. However, as previously mentioned, the company was only established in Hungary in 2022. This inconsistency raises questions about the accuracy of her claims.
While the origin of the pagers remains uncertain, experts are also grappling with a critical question: How did the pagers explode?
Pager Explosions: A Multifaceted Attack
According to Guillaume, based on interviews with specialists and technicians, three key hypotheses are proposed:
Exploitation of a Design Flaw: Firmware is software created by manufacturers to control electronic devices. All devices, from watches to connected speakers, rely on specific firmware. Electronic devices require a power source, such as lithium batteries in pagers. These batteries are known for their sensitivity to overheating, which can cause them to swell and explode. A radio wave attack could disrupt the firmware and cause a short circuit if the overheating protection is compromised or defective. This could lead to a rise in battery temperature, gas release, and potentially an explosion if 1 gram of PETN (to be detailed later) was added. The consequences could be severe, causing significant injuries due to the chemicals in the battery.
Sabotage During Manufacturing and Exploitation of Supply Chain Weaknesses: This scenario involves collusion with the manufacturer. Agents could insert an explosive charge into the pagers directly on the production line, modify the firmware, and then complete the assembly with PETN.
Similar to the Second Scenario but Without Manufacturer Involvement: This method involves infiltrating the delivery or distribution process. A delivery person or distributor might carefully open or tamper with new pagers, alter the firmware, insert the PETN explosive charge, and reseal the device and packaging to match the original. Expert Guillaume suggests that “once the pagers are delivered to their target — in this case, Hezbollah members — the plan might be to wait for a predetermined period and then simultaneously trigger all the charges using a radio signal sent to the targeted pagers.”
Operation Kickoff
The operation involved sending a message via the pager frequency to devices dispersed among the targets. According to Guillaume, this message, which triggered the explosions, “was reportedly sent on September 17 at exactly 3:30 PM.”
The explosives were detonated simultaneously, causing blasts at multiple locations in Lebanon and Syria. Guillaume further notes that “the frequency used to activate the explosives was reportedly 157.950 MHz, according to the technicians.” He adds that “these were specialized, reinforced pagers (IP67 standard), designed to be shock-resistant and waterproof, with long-lasting batteries capable of lasting up to 85 days. These pagers contained explosives, particularly PETN, which were reportedly integrated into the battery.”
Understanding PETN
PETN, or Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (C₅H₈N₄O₁₂), is a highly potent explosive that appears as white or colorless crystals. With a density of about 1.77 g/cm³, PETN is insoluble in water but dissolves in organic solvents such as acetone, ether, and methanol. It has a detonation velocity of approximately 8,400 m/s, categorizing it as a high-energy explosive. Extremely sensitive to heat, shock, and friction, PETN is one of the most powerful explosives available and is notably dangerous to handle.
When detonated, PETN releases a significant amount of energy, making it highly effective for concentrated explosive charges. Its applications include:
Military Uses: PETN is utilized in detonators, demolition charges, land mines, blasting cords, and various improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
Industrial Uses: It is employed in controlled demolitions and in precise explosive applications, such as dismantling structures.
Compact and difficult to detect, PETN has been used in various terrorist attacks, including IEDs in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Its suitability for miniaturized devices makes it a preferred choice for covert operations. PETN is challenging to detect with standard scanners, especially when concealed within devices, which could explain how it might have gone “unnoticed” when integrated into pager batteries during delivery.
To confirm PETN’s role in the attack on Hezbollah, although its chemical signature is hard to trace post-detonation — due to its near-total disintegration and significant energy release — chemical analysis methods and damage assessments can provide evidence of its usage. Additionally, the specific sound of the explosion can be a crucial clue in such investigations.
Companies with Russian Links Registered at the Same Address
Guillaume also reveals disturbing details about the two aforementioned Russian companies: Alteko Action Trade KFT and Claywood Kereskedelmi és Szolgáltató KFT. Alteko Action Trade KFT is owned by Pavel Bogdanovskii, with Marianna Kovalenko as his Hungarian representative in Hungary. Founded in 2007, Alteko specializes in the wholesale of metals and minerals. Alteko’s founder is a company, Acton Trading Corp. On the other hand, Claywood Kereskedelmi és Szolgáltató KFT, owned by Promsnab (a Russian company registered in Moscow), specializes in the wholesale of petroleum products. Also founded in 2007, its founder is another Panamanian company, Armorica Trading Corp. The links between these two companies are quite significant. Acton Trading Corp, the founder of Alteko, held shares in Claywood between October 2013 and May 2016. Gergely Prandler, a Hungarian citizen, owned both companies at one point, reinforcing the complexity of the interweaving of interests on an international scale.

'We are afraid': Lebanese FM reacts to wave of explosions across country
Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib fears war with Israel due to recent Hezbollah explosions and urges the UN and US for intervention, while the UNGA votes against Israel. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib expressed his fear of a potential war with Israel in a CNN interview on Thursday after Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in Lebanon on Wednesday. Speaking with CNN's Christine Amanpour, Habib emphasized, “There is no doubt it is a scary moment, and we are afraid of a coming war because we don't want a war.” He further explained that while “there were skirmishes on the border,” which “sometimes escalated, now we are talking about the beginning of a war." "That's why we're going to the UN Security Council to stop this. We are against war in Lebanon. The government of Lebanon does not want war and does not even want the skirmishes in the south of Lebanon," Habib continued. Seeking the UN for regional solutions. "So we need the help of the United Nations. We also need the help of the United States in order to re-establish some kind of peace in South Lebanon." The Lebanese FM's plea for UN aid comes after the General Assembly approved a resolution to impede the IDF's operations in the West Bank severely. The resolution calls on the IDF, which has military control of the West Bank and Gaza, to fully withdraw from those territories within 12 months as part of an extensive list of 19 demands. This would include evacuating all West Bank settlements and outposts. As part of that evacuation, Israel will be asked to withdraw from all parts of east Jerusalem, including the Old City. Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.

Iran outraged its ambassador to Lebanon was harmed in pager attack - anaylsis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
Iran is outraged over the injury of its ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, during an explosion involving Hezbollah pagers, demanding international condemnation of Israel.
Iran is outraged that its ambassador to Lebanon was harmed in the exploding-pagers operation that took place on Tuesday.
Reports indicate that Iranian Ambassador Mojtaba Amani lost an eye in the attack.
Many Hezbollah members looked at the pagers when they beeped and were wounded in the face when they exploded. Why was Iran’s ambassador issued a Hezbollah pager? This is a question Iran has not answered.
It seems clear that he was part of the Hezbollah nexus in Lebanon – likely as a key contact with Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This would make it appear he was more than just a diplomat. Iran has condemned Israel for the harm caused to its envoy. Iranian Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani said Tehran would “follow up on the attack against its ambassador in Lebanon, demanding the UN chief and the Security Council condemn Israel’s terrorist action against the ambassador as well as targeting of Lebanese civilians,” Iranian state media reported Wednesday. Tehran has sent a letter to the head of the UN and the presidents of the Security Council and the General Assembly, saying it reserves its right under “international law” to take measures in the wake of the incident. Iran has done so before. When Israel struck a building next to the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Tehran responded by launching more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel. It’s not clear how much weight Iran puts on the ambassador’s wounds. Tehran called it a “heinous crime,” adding that it “strongly condemns this act of sabotage and terrorism by the rogue regime of Israel.”Iran said the pager affair was a “flagrant violation of the basic principles and rules of international law, including the UN Charter, international law, particularly international humanitarian law and international human rights law, as well as the provisions of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and the 1973 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons, including Diplomatic Agents.” Iran calls on UN to condemn Israel
Tehran wants the UN to address the exploding-pagers incident and also to “end the impunity of the Zionist regime’s officials.” It said the Security Council “must also strongly condemn Israel for its malevolent activities in the region and take decisive action to force this terrorist regime to end and cease all acts of aggression and acts of terrorism against Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine and stop the ongoing genocidal war against the Palestinian people.” Amani was born in 1963 and previously was an Iranian diplomat in Egypt from 2013-2022. He was appointed ambassador to Lebanon in 2022, an important position.
As ambassador, he would have to deal with several files, including work with Hezbollah and the Shi’ite Amal movement. He was tapped for his new role by former Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who viewed foreign policy as an extension of IRGC policy and its aggressive posture in the region.
As such, it’s likely that Amani was told he would be a close liaison with Hezbollah and the IRGC regarding Iran’s militant activities in Lebanon, such as weapons transfers. Abdollahian “pointed to the importance of cooperation between Iran and Lebanon and insisted on the need to pay attention to strategic ties between the two countries,” a report in 2022 said. Amani’s predecessor, Mohammad Jalal Firouznia, received a sending off from Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon. The “Loyalty to Resistance parliamentary bloc held a ceremony to honor the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Jalal Firouznia, on the end of his four-year diplomatic mission,” Hezbollah’s Beirut-based Al-Manar news channel reported in 2022. Amani has kept a low profile in Lebanon since his appointment. Nevertheless, it is clear that behind the scenes, he has played an important role because Hezbollah has hosted Iranian officials and also met with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders. In April 2023, Abdollahian met with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and they went to southern Lebanon together to view the border with Israel. Amani attended the meeting, according to reports. This past February, in the wake of the October 7 massacre, Nasrallah met with Abdollahian and Amani. In a bizarre twist, according to reports in August, Amani had not been seen for several days, indicating that might have defected to Israel. Amani had to deny the reports. It was not clear why those reports emerged or who spread them.

Israel's tactical edge against Hezbollah marred by tragic Gaza loss - editorial
Editorial/Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
Tuesday's innovative strike against Hezbollah was a tactical success, yet the celebration was tempered by Wednesday’s report of IDF casualties in Rafah.
The collective high that Israel felt on Tuesday when it heard of the jaw-dropping “exploding pager” operation carried out in Lebanon that left some 4,000 Hezbollah men wounded was short-lived. It was cut short by the IDF announcement cleared for publication on Wednesday morning that four soldiers were killed and four others were wounded in Rafah. This is emblematic of the roller-coaster nature of this war: some days bring victories, others deliver setbacks. Often, setbacks and victories come on the same day. It is best not to let the victories go to one’s head, or the setbacks to cause abject demoralization. Let’s stop for a second, however, and focus on Tuesday’s success – on its benefits and challenges, mindful of the caveat that while Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the exploding pagers, and for Wednesday’s subsequent bombings, Jerusalem has not claimed responsibility.
But let’s assume, for argument's sake, that Israel had something to do with this wildly innovative action. What was achieved, and what wasn’t? Count a renewed belief in the country’s capabilities as one of the main achievements.
Yes we... can?
The “yes-we-can” feeling that followed news of the exploding pagers is similar to the national sentiment on August 25, when the Israel Air Force preemptively hit long-range Hezbollah missile launchers poised to fire; to the feeling on June 8 when the IDF rescued Noa Argamani and three other hostages from Hamas captivity; to the feeling on April 13 when Israel, with outside help, shot down over 300 Iranian drones and missiles. Israel’s belief in its own capabilities is vital during a long conflict such as this one, which started on October 7 when the country’s shortcomings were embarrassingly laid bare for all to see. The length of the war, its ups and downs, and the failure so far to free the hostages can lead to self-doubt: Does Israel still have it? Can it still survive in a neighborhood alongside groups who want to annihilate it? Tuesday’s action showed that, yes, the country still has the X-factor, that Entebbe factor, vital for survival in the region. Surrounded by enemies who seem to be multiplying – think of the Houthis firing a ballistic missile on Sunday and a drone from Iraq landing near the Kinneret on Wednesday – it would be easy for the nation to be demoralized at the prospect of emerging from this conflict holding the upper hand. Tuesday’s action helps dispel those self-doubts.
Reassurance in strength
In the wake of the operation, much was said about the signal this sends to Hezbollah and Iran about Israel’s capabilities and how that could be a significant deterrent. But set aside the message this sent to Israel’s enemies. It also sent a strong message internally: Don’t despair – the country’s capabilities are beyond imagination and its ability to defend itself is considerable and still intact. That being said, Tuesday’s action – a huge tactical success – was not a strategic game-changer. This success was similar to ones Israel has had over the years against Iran: killing top-tier scientists; stealing nuclear archives; and booby-trapping centrifuges so that they explode upon spinning. These steps were tactically brilliant and slowed down Iran’s race toward the bomb, but they did not derail it. Tuesday’s action in Lebanon can be seen in a similar light. It demonstrated tremendous operational capabilities, but it is not the major military move that, absent any diplomatic initiative, would silence Hezbollah. Some heard the news of the pager explosions on Tuesday and believed it was a prelude to a much bigger military maneuver that would drive Hezbollah beyond the Litani River and enable displaced Israelis to return home. After all, the exploding pagers sowed chaos in Lebanon, badly disrupted Hezbollah’s crucial means of communication, and sidelined thousands of operatives for at least a short period – a good opening blow that some believed would be followed by an even stronger knockout punch. As of this writing, however, that follow-up punch has not been delivered, leaving Israel with an undeniable tactical victory over Hezbollah but with Hezbollah still firing drones and rockets at the North. As impressive as these tactical victories are, they are still no substitute for a broad military maneuver to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s border. These actions may make such a maneuver easier, but they do not replace it.

West Point expert calls Hezbollah pager attack 'unprecedented' in scale
Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
John Spencer analyzed a recent attack on Hezbollah that involved pager explosions, injuring thousands and significantly disrupting the group's operations and morale. Chair of urban warfare studies at West Point, John Spencer, expressed his amazement regarding the strategy behind the recent attack on Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon after analyzing the incident in a thread of Wednesday X/Twitter posts. The attack on Tuesday involved the explosion of pagers used for communication among the terror group, injuring an estimated 4,000 people and killing 11.
The following day, another wave of explosions across Lebanon injured an additional 500 and resulted in 20 deaths, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry late Wednesday night report. Spencer shared his insights on the attack, stating that while there have been significant intelligence operations and surprise attacks throughout history, he has not seen one as precise, forceful, and geographically widespread as this. “I cannot find a similar intelligence/military operation with such secrecy, lethality, ingenuity, and audacity,” he remarked in the post. Furthermore, he highlighted that this single operation significantly impacted Hezbollah, with reported injuries in the thousands and dozens killed. “The attack also exposed the Hezbollah network, not just in Lebanon but in other parts of the Middle East where Hezbollah agents or affiliates carried this specific pager issued by the group,” he noted. Spencer emphasized the psychological aspect of warfare, stating, “War is a contest of will. It includes psychology and emotion.”Additionally, Spencer remarked on the substantial psychological impact caused by the attack, explaining that “Hezbollah cannot trust their equipment, cannot communicate (they switched to pagers out of concerns that Israel was monitoring their communications), and will likely alter many elements of their operations, which could lead to further mistakes that can be exploited. With a single push of a button, fear was instilled in Hezbollah forces.”
Why now?
Acknowledging that Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy force in Lebanon that has been relentless in its attacks since October 8, Spencer concluded, “Israel is fighting many enemies on multiple fronts. What it does and when it does it must consider many stakeholders, including their enemies, allies, and domestic and international contexts, as well as other ongoing operations.”

Reporter's Notebook: Kiryat Shmona under Hezbollah rocket fire for 11 months of war
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
Israel is at a juncture today regarding the need to stop the Hezbollah threats along the border, and Israel's northern city is a microcosm of the challenges.
On a narrow road in Kiryat Shmona, the northern city in Israel, there is a house that was struck several weeks ago by Hezbollah rocket fire. It was burned and now only the first floor remains, and a shell of what was once a pretty home. This is one of numerous buildings damaged and destroyed in the city.
I’ve been to Kiryat Shmona many times since the war began last October. Each time is different and each time it strikes me how this city continues to be empty. Ariel Frish, the Deputy security Officer for the city provided insights into the city’s current challenges. He also showed several of the buildings struck by Hezbollah fire. He points out that the city faces hurdles to protect itself, as it remains evacuated. The schools, for instance, are not protected from the kinds of rockets Hezbollah has been firing. Hezbollah has been acquiring and making new rockets that represent a unique threat up here in the north. For instance, they have the heavy Burkan rocket that can weigh from 150 to 500kg. This is capable of major destruction and death. People in Kiryat Shmona are so close to the border with Lebanon that when sirens sound they don’t have time to get to shelters. Driving around the city, which is striking because of how quiet and deserted it is, one can see some of the older community shelters. These large shelters, with numbers on them in various older neighborhoods, are too far for people to get to. Hezbollah also possesses many other types of weapons. It has the Falaq series of rockets, the same type it used to murder 12 people in Majdal Shams. “Even if a school has a safe room there is no time for kids on the third floor to get to it…the biggest threat is the drones,” says Frish. An eerie quietness  As Frish walks to his car to show one of the sites of a rocket impact, the birds can be heard. It’s quiet here. There’s no traffic. No people. It’s eerie. There is a slight smell of smoke in the air, maybe from a distant fire caused by a Hezbollah rocket. Kiryat Shmona overlooks the Huleh valley, so haze and smoke or smells can hang in the valley. The city is not far from a ridgeline that overlooks it. Just beyond the ridge, on the Lebanese border, are two small Israeli communities called Menara and Margaliot, both of which are often subjected to Hezbollah attacks. North of the city are Kfar Giladi, Misgav Am and Metula, other communities often attacked by the Iranian-backed terrorist organization. However, Kiryat Shmona is precariously placed because it sits at the bottom of the ridge, next to the valley. It’s close enough to Lebanon to be extremely vulnerable. This has been a problem for the city in the past when it was targeted by terrorists in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the terror is different today. Hezbollah has more rockets and missiles and it has more deadly weapons. The lack of protected areas for civilians has led to evacuation, as well as the fear of Hezbollah invasion which loomed last October.
There were once 24,000 people here. Now 2,000 remain. During my time there recently I only saw one civilian. According to Frish the city has sustained 760 direct hits from Hezbollah attacks and 19 public buildings were impacted. There was a battle in Tel Hai in 1920 between Jews and Arabs that has long formed a key part of the history of the founding of Israel. Today northern Israel is struggling once again with that history and its place within the long journey Israel has come to arrive at this moment of decision regarding the Hezbollah threat.
The sophisticated weapons are also part of Hezbollah’s attempts to test the weapons and improve its capabilities. “Until the threat is eliminated people will not come back,” says Frish. He illustrates this with a trip to the burned home and also another home that was impacted. A rocket damaged and burned cars in the yard. This is no way for civilians to live. It’s clear why people are not here.
Hezbollah will respond
In the wake of the pager attack in Lebanon, in which thousands of Hezbollah members were injured, it is clear the organization will likely respond. There are numerous Hezbollah members dead now, pushing their overall death toll over 450 since the war began. Hezbollah has been playing with fire by its endless attacks on Israel and forcing the residents of places like Kiryat Shmona to leave. Hezbollah has gotten away with this so far, for the most part. People in the north want a solution. They want the terrorist group pushed back from the border. It’s clear now that evacuation was not a solution and was likely a mistake because people fear to come back. People also need to have the safety they deserve. They need shelters and protected schools. They need to have all the tools that will let them live normal lives. As if to underpin the threat, on September 18, Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets at Israel. One fell in Tel Hai, next to Kfar Giladi. Tel Hai conjures up the importance of standing firm on the land of Israel because of its role in the early Zionist pioneering settlement of the land up here in the north.

Hezbollah vows revenge after deadly pager attack on members - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
Hezbollah vows revenge for the deaths of over two dozen members in recent attacks, promising a response that Israel cannot anticipate.
Hezbollah has vowed to avenge the death and wounding of its members in the pager attack on September 17 and the subsequent exploding radios that took place on September 18. It’s not clear how many Hezbollah members were killed, but the number appears to be more than two dozen. Hezbollah says it will retaliate in a way that Israel cannot yet imagine, according to a report at the Hezbollah media Al-Manar. Hezbollah has an equation that it looks to for attacks on Israel. In essence, this means the group follows specific “rules” in the war it launched on October 8 when it began attacks on Israel to support Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has carried out attacks on northern Israel, usually at a depth of a few miles. Whenever it believes Israel has carried out a strike in Lebanon that represents an escalation, Hezbollah then escalates proportionately. Hezbollah couches this in claims that it is merely responding.
Throughout the 11 months of conflict, Hezbollah has said that specific incidents go beyond the tit-for-tat strikes. For instance, the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut in July was a red line for Hezbollah. Shukr was only killed because of the Hezbollah attack on Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and teens. However, Hezbollah didn’t apologize for that attack and pretended it was not responsible. As such, Hezbollah then opened an “account” to pay back Israel for the killing of Shukr. Retaliation came on August 25 when Hezbollah tried to launch thousands of rockets at Israel. Israel preempted that attack with airstrikes, and only several hundred rockets were launched. Hezbollah has often said that if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, it will stop some of its attacks on Israel. But it keeps certain accounts open, leading to an endless waiting game for retaliation. Now Hezbollah has said that the pager attacks represent another one of these open accounts. Having lost more than two dozen members in the attacks, it will want to even the score. Hezbollah already lost 450 fighters since October 2023. Now, it has suffered its single most significant loss in one day fighting Israel. In fact, this may be its worst loss in history in one day. “Another reckoning that will come,” Hezbollah says. Hezbollah says that the pager attack will not reduce its commitment to attacks on Israel that are part of the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, an Iranian medical team has arrived in Lebanon to assist the injured. Reports say that the injured are also being evacuated to Iran. This means that Israel can expect daily rocket attacks in the near term as Hezbollah plots a more significant attack against Israel as retaliation.
Short-term tactical victories
This creates a new waiting game in Israel. In August, Israel was also waiting, expecting retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Shukr in Beirut. Iran has also vowed a response after its ambassador to Lebanon was injured by an exploding pager. This likely creates another reason for Hezbollah and Iran to coordinate a more significant attack on Israel. Israel will now be forced to “wait” and react once again. This has become a cycle in this long war that began on October 7. Because Israel currently prefers short-term tactical victories over a knock-out blow aimed at Hamas or Hezbollah, Israel, therefore, is in a long war of attrition. There is no clear strategy to end the threats once and for all. This leaves the tempo mainly in Iran’s hands. Iran gets to decide when and where to escalate, and Israel responds. For instance, on September 18, Iraqi militias launched a drone into Israeli airspace that was shot down by the air force. In addition, on September 15, the Houthis in Yemen launched a missile that entered Israeli airspace and exploded, causing sirens throughout central Israel. Iran is dictating the tempo of the multi-front war. Israel is always waiting and then responding. In many cases, Israel is not responding or waiting a very long time to respond. The pager incident is one example of a time when Israel seized the initiative briefly. However, it is not clear if there will be follow-through. Hezbollah indicates it can sit and wait and then retaliate at a time of its choosing. This is the kind of rhythm of this conflict. It is not clear if this suits Israel or the Iranian axis. Does Israel benefit from a long, endless war where Iran constantly finds new ways to threaten Israel? Historically, Israel’s leaders preferred short wars that let Israelis get back to everyday life. Today’s Israel is not 1967, though; today, Israel prefers long wars against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others. This led to a retaliation waiting game for Israelis, who must wait and see what Hezbollah or Iran has next in store for the country.

Israeli shell company behind explosive pagers used by Hezbollah - NYT
Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
The report explained that while the company did produce regular pagers for other clients, those manufactured for Hezbollah were “produced separately, they contained batteries laced with explosive.” Hungary-based pagers manufacturing company BAC Consulting, which manufactured the pagers that exploded across Lebanon on Tuesday, was an Israeli shell company, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing three intelligence officers. The three officers further said that an additional two shell companies were created, which, the NYT noted, assisted in hiding the identities of those involved in manufacturing the pagers. The report explained that while the company did produce regular pagers for other clients, those manufactured for Hezbollah were “produced separately, they contained batteries laced with explosive.” According to the report, the pagers were first sent to Lebanon in 2022 in a small batch. Following a speech made by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, where he denounced the use of cellphones - calling them Israel’s “agent” - and promoted more comprehensive use of pagers, more orders for BAC manufactured pagers were reportedly placed by operatives of the Lebanese terrorist organization.
Nasrallah bans use of cell phones
Moreover, according to three defense officials, Nasrallah also ordered Hezbollah officers to carry pagers at all times and banned cell phones from organization meetings. He also reportedly ordered officers to refrain from communicating any details concerning Hezbollah’s movements and plans through cell phones.
Since his speech, there was a significant increase in shipments of pagers to Lebanon, with thousands reportedly arriving and being distributed to Hezbollah officers and their allies, the New York Times cited two American intelligence officials.
While Hezbollah views these devices as a defensive tool, the NYT noted, Israeli intelligence has characterized them as “buttons” that could be activated at strategic moments, which appears to have been on Tuesday. According to multiple reports, the pagers were set to beep, prompting their owners to see what message Hezbollah’s command sent, only to explode a few seconds later, sowing chaos across Lebanon.
Hezbollah reported that at least eight of its fighters were killed, with more noncombatants also being killed and wounded.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 19-20/2024
Secret single-stage deal could see all hostages released, Sinwar exiled from Gaza
Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
A secret alternative plan for a hostage deal is emerging, proposing a single step that combines all stages and involves Gaza disarmament. Despite the hostage and ceasefire deal seemingly grinding to a halt due to disagreements between the parties, which the mediators seemingly cannot resolve, a secret alternative plan was being developed that could see all the hostages released and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in exile, Israel media reported on Thursday morning. According to sources, US officials believe that a phased deal "doesn't work" and are considering different options. The leading alternative plan suggests combining all the stages into one single step. In Israel and the US, there’s a growing belief that skipping the intermediate stage is necessary because the current negotiations are not succeeding. The new suggested proposal is for a single, comprehensive deal where all hostages, whether alive or dead, are returned to Israel at once, terrorists are released from Israeli prisons, and the mediators commit to disarming Gaza and moving Hamas leaders to a third country. In exchange, Israel would agree to withdraw from Gaza, with the mediators setting up a multinational force to oversee the agreement’s implementation, including disarming Gaza (e.g., destroying Hamas’s rocket stockpiles and tunnels). Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and key terrorists would have the option to leave Gaza for a third country, and many of the terrorists released from Israeli prisons would be sent to third countries and not allowed to return to the Gaza Strip or West Bank. Sources involved in the alternative plan say that "the current conflict over the Philadelphi Corridor is centered on what will happen during the interim period between stages of the deal. If you look at the framework proposed by President Biden, it suggests a timeframe of only a few weeks. In later stages, Israel is supposed to leave all of the Gaza Strip, even though there’s doubt that the parties will carry out stages B and C of the original plan."
Single-stage deal
According to those discussing the alternative, another reason for a single-stage deal is the growing divide among hostage families in Israel. Relatives of soldiers and young men argue that the current plan means a death sentence for hostages not released in the first stage. Supporters of the single-stage deal believe it would get more public support and unite the hostage families. For monitoring the multinational force overseeing the arrangement and the Gaza Strip disarmament, several options are being considered, including a force made up of American troops and Sunni Arab states or hiring a private company to secure critical areas. If the comprehensive deal isn’t implemented within a set timeframe, it would be seen as a breach, and Israel would have the right to return to Gaza. The alternative plan, which exiles Sinwar instead of being targeted and eliminated, matches reports in Arab media.
A senior Egyptian official who spoke with Americans said Sinwar insists on ensuring his safety, meaning Israel would commit not to target him after the deal. Sinwar has sent clear messages, expecting them to reach top Israeli officials.

Israel thwarts Iran's plot to assassinate Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Ronen Bar
YONAH JEREMY BOB/Jerusalem Post/September 19/2024
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-820820
The Shin Bet unveiled an Iranian assassination plot targeting PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. Iran plotted to assassinate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, the Shin Bet announced on Thursday. Its efforts were particularly intense following the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which most of the world has attributed to Mossad. However, Israel has made sure not to take any credit for it. In addition, the Islamic Republic, at a somewhat more vague level, explored assassinating former prime minister Naftali Bennett and other top Israeli defense officials. The plot was to use an Israeli businessman, named by Israeli media as Moti Mqman, 73 years old from Ashkelon, who spent extensive time living in Turkey and had financial dealings with both Turkish and Iranian persons to develop assassination plans in Israel. To effectuate the plan, in April of this year, Turkish citizens Andrei Farouk Aslan and Guneid Aslan contacted the Israeli businessman to conduct financial transactions, inviting him to the Turkish city of Samandag to meet with two representatives of a rich Iranian named Edi. In May, the meeting was held.
Israeli business in Iran
But when he was told that Edi could not leave Iran for Turkey, he agreed to have himself smuggled by car from Turkey into Iran, where he met Edi and a member of the Iranian security establishment named Haj. The Israeli businessman initially had requested one million dollars before undertaking any activities.
The Israeli businessman later visited Iran a second time in August and received 5,000 Euros as part of the start of his undertaking financial, logistics, and weapons-related actions for accomplishing the plot, including potentially converting a Mossad agent into a double agent. During the second visit to Iran in August, he was smuggled again into Iran from Turkey, this time in a truck, and met again with Edi, though this time also with multiple other unidentified Iranian security officials. During this meeting, they asked him to assist with the assassination plots. The Israeli businessman was also requested to take videos of certain Israeli sites for surveillance and intelligence gathering purposes as well as to deliver threats to Israeli citizens who Iran had contacted to carry out missions that were not complying with Iranian directives. During the second visit to Iran in August, he was smuggled again into Iran from Turkey, this time in a truck, and met again with Edi, though this time also with multiple other unidentified Iranian security officials. During this meeting, they asked him to assist with the assassination plots. The Israeli businessman initially had requested one million dollars before undertaking any activities. Two birds, one Israeli . Also, during the second visit to Iran, the Iranians asked the businessman if he would be able to recruit Russians and Americans who could be used to kill Iranian figures opposed to the regime who live in Europe and the US. The Shin Bet did not provide any indications that the Israeli businessman made any significant progress toward any of the terror activities. Still, it did stress that any involvement with hostile Iranians, let alone in Iranian territory itself, during a time of war, was viewed as a very serious security crime.
Further, the Shin Bet said that Iran appeared to be continuing a hard push for such terror activities, such that uncovering this one plot did not bring an end to the danger.
The businessman was indicted on Thursday.
Shin Bet opaque timing
It was unclear why the Shin Bet published the disclosure on Thursday, two days after it published the attempt by Hezbollah to assassinate former defense minister Moshe Yaalon. In addition, it was unclear if there was any coordination between Iran and Hezbollah regarding the various plots or a delineation of who would target who. Questioned about the timing, the Shin Bet initially responded that the cases were published based on when the indictments were being filed and when the relevant courts lifted the gag order relating to them. The Jerusalem Post noted that the Shin Bet and law enforcement have significant control over the timing of filing indictments and requesting lifting gag orders, and as such the initial answer did not really answer the question. The Post is still waiting for further clarifications.
Turkish co-operation
Questioned about whether Turkish authorities are cooperating with Israel against its citizens involved in the plot - which it has sometimes in the past - the Shin Bet had not yet responded. Issues of cooperation between Israel and Turkish authorities are extremely sensitive, though Ankara has publicized some such cooperation in the past when Iran tried to kill Jews inside Turkey, and the Mossad helped Turkish authorities thwart the plot.

US believes Gaza ceasefire deal unlikely in Biden's term, WSJ reports
Reuters/September 19, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. officials now believe that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Gaza is unlikely before President Joe Biden leaves office in January, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. The newspaper cited top-level officials in the White House, State Department and Pentagon without naming them. Those bodies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. "I can tell you that we do not believe that deal is falling apart," Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters on Thursday before the report was published. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said two weeks ago that 90% of a ceasefire deal had been agreed upon. The United States and mediators Qatar and Egypt have for months attempted to secure a ceasefire but have failed to bring Israel and Hamas to a final agreement. Two obstacles have been especially difficult: Israel's demand to keep forces in the Philadelphi corridor between Gaza and Egypt and the specifics of an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The United States has said a Gaza ceasefire deal could lower tensions across the Middle East amid fears the conflict could widen. Biden laid out a three-phase ceasefire proposal on May 31 that he said at the time Israel agreed to. As the talks hit obstacles, officials have for weeks said a new proposal would soon be presented. The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's subsequent assault on the Hamas-governed enclave has killed over 41,000 Palestinians, according to the local health ministry, while displacing nearly the entire population of 2.3 million, causing a hunger crisis and leading to genocide allegations at the World Court that Israel denies.

With little prospect for a deal, Israel floats Sinwar exile proposal to Biden
Eugenia Yousif, Mick Krever and Jeremy Diamond, CNN/September 19, 2024
A senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented to the Biden administration a new proposed ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas, an Israeli official told CNN. The proposal from Gal Hirsch, a close Netanyahu ally who serves as Israel’s coordinator for hostages and the missing, would see a permanent end to the conflict in Gaza, the release in one stage of all hostages held there in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and the safe passage for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to be exiled out of Gaza, according to Kan 11, an Israeli national broadcaster and CNN affiliate.
Reactions to the proposal have widely been that it will be a non-starter for Hamas, which has not commented on it. It is unclear whether the proposal addresses the presence of Israeli troops in Gaza after a ceasefire and hostage deal – a key sticking point in stalled negotiations. And the idea that Sinwar would leave Gaza is seen as unlikely by American officials. A separate Israeli source familiar with the negotiations said the proposal was not being discussed among the Israeli negotiating team as a basis for new negotiations with Hamas, which have been at a standstill for weeks now. The Hostages Families Forum initially praised the outline, but later on Thursday called it a “cynical and cheap manipulation.”“This is fraud whose purpose is to thwart the new American initiative to release the hostages and stop the war in Gaza,” the organization said. “Soon we will celebrate a year of abandonment. This is a moral and value bankruptcy that the state has never seen before.”
Talks stall
The proposal comes at a time when the prospects for a deal have never been lower. The families of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza have expressed dismay at escalating tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon, saying that a widescale war there would only lower the chances of a hostage deal. Joe Biden’s national security advisers have no imminent plans to present the US president with an updated proposal in the Israel-Hamas war ceasefire negotiations, two senior administration officials told CNN – the latest indication that talks to end the conflict have seriously stalled. Netanyahu will not meet with Biden during his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly next week, an Israel source familiar with the matter told CNN. Hirsch met early last week with Roger Carstens, the US special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, to discuss negotiations to free the hostages held in Gaza. The notion of facilitating Sinwar’s exile has been discussed at various points in the negotiations as part of the later stages of an eventual ceasefire agreement, although there is no indication that Sinwar would agree to such terms. Gershon Baskin, who has extensive experience negotiating with Hamas, told CNN that anyone who thought Sinwar would leave Gaza “does not live in this world.”“Gaza is Sinwar’s sea and he is a fish. A fish does not come out of the sea willingly.”Nonetheless, if the agreement included the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, it would come “close to a deal that Hamas is ready for,” Baskin added. Previously, when the idea was raised of allowing top Hamas leaders like Sinwar to leave Gaza as part of a ceasefire agreement, American officials said they thought it was unlikely Sinwar would agree. They cited Israel’s assassinations of Hamas leaders in foreign capitals, and said they believed Sinwar would prefer to die fighting Israel than to leave Gaza. “I even believe that we will agree to build safe passage to the chief terrorist, the new Hitler, Sinwar – safe passage to him and whoever he wants to join him out of Gaza,” Hirsch told CNN earlier this month.

Israeli soldiers pushed three apparently lifeless bodies from roofs during a West Bank raid
Julia Frankel And Majdi Mohammed
QABATIYA, West Bank (AP)/September 19, 2024
An AP journalist in the town of Qabatiya witnessed three soldiers push the bodies off the roofs of adjacent multi-story buildings, sending them falling out of view. It was the latest in a series of suspected violations by Israeli forces since the start of the Israel-Hamas war that rights groups say show a pattern of excessive force toward Palestinians. “This is a serious incident that does not coincide with IDF values ​​and the expectations from IDF soldiers," the military said in a statement, using the acronym it goes by. "The incident is under review.”Israel said its troops had killed four militants during operations in Qabatiya on Thursday. The Palestinian Health Ministry in Ramallah did not immediately confirm multiple deaths, but said one person had been killed in the town and that Israeli gunfire sent 10 Palestinians to the hospital. In the video obtained by AP, three soldiers can be seen picking up what appears to be a stiff body and then dragging it toward the edge of a roof as troops stand on the ground below. The soldiers on the roof peer over the edge before heaving the body off. On an adjacent rooftop, the soldiers hold another apparently lifeless body by its limbs and swing it over the edge. In a third instance, a soldier kicks a body toward the edge before it falls from view. Photos captured by AP during Thursday’s raid show an Israeli army bulldozer moving near the buildings where the bodies were dropped. Other journalists at the scene also witnessed the bodies being pushed off the roofs. The identities of the dead and the cause of their deaths were not immediately known. When withdrawing from raids, the army usually leaves behind any Palestinians killed by Israeli gunfire. Occasionally the army brings dead bodies into Israel. Under international law, soldiers are supposed to ensure dead bodies, including those of enemy combatants, are treated decently. “There is no military need to do this. It’s just a savage way of treating Palestinian bodies,” said Shawan Jabarin, the director of Palestinian rights group Al-Haq, after watching the footage. Jabarin said the video was shocking but not surprising, and he was doubtful Israel would properly investigate the incident. The Israeli military rarely prosecutes soldiers in cases of reported harm to Palestinians, rights groups say. “The most that will happen is that soldiers will be disciplined, but there will be no real investigation and no real prosecution," said Jabarin. The AP reporter who witnessed the raid saw a blindfolded and shirtless Palestinian man kneeling before an Israeli army jeep and armed soldiers. Smoke billowed from several buildings that appeared damaged. As the world’s attention focuses on the far more deadly war in Gaza less than 80 miles away, scores of Palestinians have been killed, shot and arrested in the West Bank, where the Israeli military has waged a monthslong crackdown. Over 700 Palestinians in the West Bank have been killed by Israeli fire since the war erupted on Oct. 7, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The northern West Bank has seen some of the worst violence since the war’s outbreak. Israel says the raids are necessary to stamp out militancy, which has flared since Oct. 7. In that time, Palestinian gunmen have attacked Israelis at checkpoints and staged several attacks within Israel.
Earlier this month, Israel staged its deadliest raid into the northern West Bank since the war began, killing at least 33 people.

Region ‘closest to war since 1973’: Saudi envoy to UK
Arab News/September 19, 2024
LONDON: The Middle East is facing its greatest threat of regional war since 1973, the Saudi ambassador to the UK has warned. On the Sky News program “The World with Yalda Hakim,” Prince Khalid bin Bandar said “renewed efforts” are required to end the bloodshed. “I’d like to say I was optimistic, but it’s difficult to see where that optimism would come from,” he added. “The situation on the ground is getting worse and worse ... I think this is the closest we’ve been to a regional war since 1973.” The Israel-Palestine conflict is at the heart of the tensions, and both sides have a responsibility to avoid escalation, Prince Khalid added. “The Israeli-Palestinian problem affects people all around the world in a way that very few conflicts have,” he said. “You see in protests (around the world), everyone is affected and motivated by what’s happening on the ground. “So Israelis and Palestinians have a responsibility — whether they like it or not — to the world.”The conflict could have global consequences, requiring the international community to “push harder” in a bid to end the fighting, he said. “A conflict that spreads beyond where it is, spreads to the region. If it spreads to the region, it spreads to the world, and that’s not a scenario that anybody wants to see,” he added. “It’s time we put renewed efforts in to stop the fighting … We need more of the international community to push harder.”His comments come as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “new phase” in fighting against Hezbollah following the detonation of the Lebanese group’s communication devices this week. Senior international figures, including the UN secretary-general, have warned that the Israeli attacks could precede a larger operation in Lebanon. Hezbollah has vowed to respond to the attacks, which killed more than 30 people and injured thousands.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington is assessing how the attacks in Lebanon could affect ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza war.

Six Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in occupied West Bank’s Qabatiya
Reuters/September 19, 2024
RAMALLAH: Six Palestinians were killed and 18 others injured by Israeli forces during a military raid in the occupied West Bank city of Qabatiya, the governor of Jenin told Reuters on Thursday. The governor, Kamal Abu Al-Rub, said four of the injured are in critical condition, and that Israeli forces withdrew from Qabatiya after destroying infrastructure in the area. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. Violence has surged in the West Bank since the start of the war in Gaza, with almost daily sweeps by Israeli forces that have involved thousands of arrests and regular gunbattles between security forces and Palestinian fighters.

Houthis abduct 5 former ruling party members in Sanaa
Saeed Al-Batati/Arab News/September 19, 2024
AL-MUKALLA: Armed Houthis abducted five tribal leaders, academics and officials after raiding a house in Sanaa, the latest seizures following accusations of criticism and incitement of revolution celebrations. The group stormed a house in Assafi’yah and arrested Amen Rajeh, a tribal leader and deputy minister of youth, along with Ali Jarmal, Saeed Al-Ghoules, Ahmed Al-Ashari and Nayef Al-Najjar. All five are senior members of the General People’s Congress, the party of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. An anonymous source said they were captured for inciting the public to celebrate the 62nd anniversary of the Sept. 26 revolution and for online criticism of the Houthis. The Yemeni revolution of September 1962 ended centuries of Zaidi Imamate rule in northern Yemen and laid the groundwork for establishing the Yemen Arab Republic. The source, a GPC journalist, said: “The September 26 revolution ended the backward Imamate rule, and the Houthis supported that reactionary regime.” In recent days, the Houthis have raided the homes of people in Sanaa, Ibb, and other areas under their control who have called for revolution celebrations. Residents and local media have reported the abductions of several people, including online activists. The seizures come as Houthi leaders are asking Yemenis in areas under their control to take to the streets on Saturday to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the military takeover which triggered the current war.
At the same time, Yemen’s human rights minister, Ahmed Arman, told Arab News the Houthis had distributed leaflets in the streets of Sanaa, Amran and other areas in northern Yemen, urging the public to assist in identifying spies for Western countries.
One leaflet, shared on X, read: “It is our responsibility as free and honorable Yemenis to report spies for America, Israel, Britain, Holland, and Germany to security authorities and intelligence agencies because they pose the greatest threat to the state, religion, and Islamic nation.”Following raids on homes and workplaces, the Houthis abducted dozens of people working for UN agencies, international rights and aid organizations, and diplomatic missions, accusing them of using their humanitarian work to spy for US and Israeli intelligence services. The UN and other organizations have vehemently denied the allegations and called for their employees’ immediate release. On Wednesday, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg announced the end of a trip to Iran after “frank and constructive” talks with Iranian officials about peace efforts to end the war in Yemen and the abduction of UN workers. In a statement, Grundberg said: “Throughout all my engagements, I prioritized lending my voice to the secretary-general’s urgent call to release all detained colleagues. Their release must happen without delay to restore the hope and trust needed for moving forward.”

At UN Iran and Europeans to test diplomacy with US election looming
Parisa Hafezi and John Irish/DUBAI/PARIS (Reuters) /September 19, 2024
Iranian and European officials will meet at the U.N. General Assembly in New York next week in a test of whether the two sides can find a path back to diplomacy over Iran's nuclear programme, while lowering tensions with Israel and the West.
In his first trip to the West since his election in July, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will land on American soil six weeks before a close Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election that could put former President Donald Trump - a staunch opponent of compromise with Iran - back in office.
Three Iranian officials told Reuters that Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, will deliver a message that "Tehran is open to diplomacy", while emphasizing that Tehran will not bow to pressure. Iran's leaders hope to see an easing of U.S. sanctions over its nuclear programme. But relations with the West have worsened since the Iranian-backed Hamas militant group attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7 and as Tehran has increased its support for Russia's war in Ukraine. Overshadowing the General Assembly are explosions this week of pagers and hand-held radios used by the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, raising fears of a wider Israeli-Arab conflict. It is unclear whether the Europeans and Iranians can find areas for compromise in New York. Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme while limiting the U.N. nuclear watchdog's ability to monitor it. Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3 and the sole European powers to sign on to a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, have pushed for a tougher policy to pressure Tehran back to dialogue, fearing that Washington's electoral distractions have emboldened Tehran and left little room for diplomacy. Pezeshkian may have little room to yield. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, not the president, calls all the shots on Tehran's nuclear and foreign policy. "Iran's rulers believe that the tense standoff with the West over Iran's nuclear programme should end ... but through negotiations from a position of power not pressure," said an Iranian official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group, said substantive talk before the U.S. election were unlikely. But interim steps, such as Iran receiving some sanctions relief in return for expanding IAEA monitoring of its nuclear facilities, could be possible. “De-escalation is feasible. I think it would benefit both sides,” Davenport said.
IRAN SIGNALS WILLINGNESS TO TALK
Khamenei signalled in an August speech a willingness to resume nuclear negotiations. The appointment of Abbas Araqchi as Iran's foreign minister also sent a positive signal - he was one of the key architects to the 2015 accord that limited Iran's ability to enrich uranium in return for a lifting of Western sanctions. But scepticism remains on both sides over what can be achieved with the U.N. meetings, where Pezeshkian and Araqchi are set to meet European officials. For the Europeans, who remain party to the nuclear deal abandoned by Trump in 2018, there is a sense that Tehran's leadership will not change course and that a broader accord encompassing the nuclear programme and Iran's geopolitical role is unrealistic for now. That's particularly true given Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel last April and its alleged transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia. "I think we are looking for less for less. You do something on this and we do something on that. If talks resume it will be transactional and not transformational," said one European diplomat. A second Iranian official said Tehran welcomes "the less for less idea as the circumstances are far uglier than 2015". The United States, its European allies and Tehran's arch foe Israel accuse Iran of using its nuclear programme as a veil for efforts to try to develop the capability to produce weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.
SNAPBACK SANCTIONS
The West has few levers to pressure Tehran amid concerns the next U.S administration, be it led by Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris, will need time to review policy.That could leave too little time to put a joint action plan together before October 2025, when U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which enshrined the nuclear deal and provided the power to restore U.N. sanctions, expires. "That risks taking away our principal tool of pressure on Iran so we have to apply pressure now," said a senior European official. The E3 have yet to decide if and when to "snap back" sanctions, but for several months have raised the spectre of doing so to try to restore some leverage on Iran before the new U.S president is inaugurated at the end of January. Highlighting their frustration at the outgoing U.S. Biden administration, the E3 went ahead in June with a resolution rebuking Iran at the U.N. atomic agency despite American reservations that it could exacerbate an already tense geopolitical atmosphere. European diplomats and a U.S. official have said the Biden administration has tried to keep the Iran file off the president's desk to make room for other priorities. "With their election approaching, the Americans are not ready for serious negotiations ... However, if necessary, we will initiate contact with the Europeans and will not wait for the U.S.," Araqchi told state television on Sept. 15. A State Department spokesperson said that the United States is "closely coordinating with the E3 on our approach to Iran, including with regard to Iran’s concerning nuclear advances."The 2015 deal is all but dead and the international unity during that deal, when Russia and China stood alongside Western powers, no longer exists. "Given the tortured history, a future deal is likely more difficult to achieve and less effective in curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions," said Ali Vaez, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.

Trump cancels appearance with Polish President Duda in Pennsylvania
Gram Slattery/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/September 19, 2024
Donald Trump's joint appearance with Polish President Andrzej Duda in the battleground state of Pennsylvania has been canceled, according to a source familiar with the Republican presidential candidate's plans. Trump and Duda had been planning to attend the unveiling of a monument at a Polish-American Catholic shrine north of Philadelphia on Sunday. If the event had gone forward, it would have marked a rare instance of a foreign leader appearing alongside a U.S. presidential candidate on the campaign trail. It was not immediately clear why the appearance was canceled or if Trump would meet Duda at another time or place. Voters of eastern European descent have become highly sought after in the final weeks of the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. Pennsylvania, in particular, is home to a sizeable Ukrainian-American and Polish-American population. As the state is among the most competitive in the nation, this demographic could help determine the outcome of the election. Harris has said that Trump would fail to stand up to aggression by Russian President Vladimir Putin if he wins the Nov. 5 election, a claim the Trump campaign denies. A who's who of foreign leaders will be arriving in the United States in the coming days for the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he will "probably" meet next week with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and he has also said he will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Polish embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

European Parliament calls for EU countries to loosen Ukraine weapons restrictions
Clyde Hughes/UPI/September 19, 2024
The European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution Thursday urging member states to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to fire at targets inside of Russia while toughening sanctions against Moscow and its supporters.
The resolution asked European Union countries to lift the restrictions so Ukraine can be more aggressive in defending itself against Russia. Many individual member states have been hesitant to lift such restrictions, fearing it could help spread the conflict throughout the continent. The 425-131 vote with 63 abstentions, appeared to show an overwhelming approval to allow Ukraine to take a more offensive approach in the slow-moving war where Kyiv has tried to change its dynamic. "Parliament underlines those insufficient deliveries of ammunition and restrictions on their use risk offsetting the impact of efforts made to date and deplores the declining volume of bilateral military aid to Ukraine by EU countries," the Parliament said in the resolution. "MEPs reiterate their call for member states to fulfill their March 2023 commitment to deliver one million rounds of ammunition, including Taurus missiles." The European Parliament also called for more sanctions against China, Iran and North Korea for helping Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. They also want Russia to be held accountable for its war crimes as part of any peace settlement. In May, U.S. President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine's military to use American weapons for limited strikes against military targets in Russian territory for the first time after previously banning such activities with U.S.-made weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin had earlier warned that such actions by the United States and the Western allies would constitute a widening of the war.
The Biden administration, however, still bars Ukraine from mounting deeper strikes into Russia using U.S. weapons like the Lockheed Martin long-range Army Tactical Missile System.

Putin ally warns West of nuclear war over Ukraine
Reuters/Updated Thu, September 19, 2024
MOSCOW (Reuters) -A close ally of President Vladimir Putin warned Western governments on Thursday that a nuclear war would ensue if they gave the green light for Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia. Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house of parliament and a member of Putin's Security Council, was responding to a vote in the European Parliament urging EU countries to give such approval to Kyiv. "What the European Parliament is calling for leads to a world war using nuclear weapons," Volodin wrote on Telegram. His message was entitled "For those who didn't get it the first time" - an apparent reference to a warning by Putin last week that the West would be directly fighting Russia if it let Ukraine fire the long-range missiles onto Russian territory. The Ukraine war has triggered the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which is considered to be the time when the two Cold War superpowers came closest to intentional nuclear war. The outgoing head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, told The Times this week that the Kremlin leader had declared "many red lines" before but not escalated conflict with the West when they were crossed. Putin's spokesman said his comment was dangerous and provocative. In a non-binding resolution adopted on Thursday, the European Parliament asked EU countries to "immediately lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons systems delivered to Ukraine against legitimate military targets on Russian territory."Volodin wrote: "If something like this happens, Russia will give a tough response using more powerful weapons. No one should have any illusions about this." He said it appeared to Moscow that the West had forgotten the vast sacrifices made by the Soviet Union in World War Two. He said Europeans should understand that it would take Russia's RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, known in the West as Satan II, just 3 minutes and 20 seconds to strike Strasbourg, where the European Parliament meets.

Mexican president blames the US for bloodshed in Sinaloa as cartel violence surges
Eduardo Verdugo/CULIACAN, Mexico (AP)/September 19, 2024
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador blamed the United States on Thursday for the surge in cartel violence terrorizing the northern state of Sinaloa which has left at least 30 people dead in the past week. Two warring factions of the Sinaloa cartel have clashed in the state capital of Culiacan in what appears to be a fight for power. Teams of gunmen have engaged each other and the security forces, and more dead bodies continue to pop up in the city.On Thursday afternoon, another military operation covered the north of the city with military and circling helicopters. Traffic was heavy in Culiacan and most schools were open, even though parents were still not sending their children to classes. Businesses continue to close early and few people venture out after dark. While the city has slowly reopened and soldiers patrol the streets, many families continue to hide away, with parents and teachers fearing they'll be caught in the crossfire. “Where is the security for our children, for ourselves too, for all citizens? It’s so dangerous here, you don’t want to go outside,” one Culiacan mother told the Associated Press. On Thursday afternoon, another military operation covered the north of the city with helicopters circling overhead.
The mother, who didn't want to share her name out of fear of the cartels, said that while some schools have recently reopened, she hasn't allowed her daughter to go for two weeks. She said she was scared to do so after armed men stopped a taxi they were traveling in on their way home, terrifying her child. The surge in violence had been expected after Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of former Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, landed near El Paso, Texas on July 25 in a small plane with Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Zambada was the cartel’s elder figure and reclusive leader. After his arrest, he said in a letter circulated by his lawyer that he had been abducted by the younger Guzmán and taken to the U.S. against his will.
During his morning press briefing on Thursday, López Obrador claimed that American authorities were responsible for the violence because of the capture of Zambada, a wild saga that has puzzled many across the region. The Mexican populist claimed American authorities “carried out that operation” and that “it was totally illegal, and agents from the Department of Justice were waiting for Mr. Mayo.”“If we are now facing instability and clashes in Sinaloa, it is because they (the American government) made that decision,” he said. He added that there “cannot be a cooperative relationship if they take unilateral decisions” like this. Instead of thanking the U.S. for nabbing Zambada — whose cartel has spread violence and terror across Mexico for decades — Mexican prosecutors have said they were considering bringing treason charges against those involved in the plot.
It's the latest escalation of tensions in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. Last month, the Mexican president said he was putting relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies “on pause” after ambassadors criticized his controversial plan to overhaul Mexico's judiciary by requiring all judges to stand for election. Still, the Zambada capture has fueled criticisms of López Obrador, who has throughout his administration refused to confront cartels in a strategy he refers to as “hugs not bullets.” On previous occasions, he falsely stated that cartels respect Mexican citizens and largely fight amongst themselves. While the president, who is set to leave office at the end of the month, has promised his plan would reduce cartel violence, such clashes continue to plague Mexico. Cartels employ an increasing array of tactics, including roadside bombs or IEDs, trenches, home-made armored vehicles and bomb-dropping drones. Last week, López Obrador publicly asked Sinaloa's warring factions to act “responsibly” and noted that he believed the cartels would listen to him.
But the bloodshed has only continued. Eduardo Verdugo, The Associated Press

Dozens killed in Mali attack by Al Qaeda affiliate
Reuters/September 19, 2024
(Reuters) - An elaborate attack by an Al Qaeda affiliate in Mali's capital this week killed some 70 people, diplomatic and security sources said on Thursday, while the government offered no figures on casualties. Militants attacked an elite police training academy and the airport on Tuesday, demonstrating their ability to strike at the heart of Mali's capital. The country is fighting an insurgency that took root over a decade ago in its arid north. The scale and complexity of the attacks further undermines the ruling junta's claims that security has improved since it booted out French and U.S. forces, and turned to Russia instead for security. Two diplomats serving in the region, including one based in Bamako, said the death toll was believed to be in the 70s. Reuters could not independently verify the numbers. A third diplomat based in the region said hundreds were believed dead and wounded, and hospitals had run out of beds to treat survivors. Since the conflict in Mali erupted, violence has spread to neighbours in the Sahel region and reached the north of coastal countries. Thousands have been killed and millions displaced in the region, and some fighters are allied with Al Qaeda or Islamic State. Tuesday's attack was claimed by Al Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM). Mali's ruling junta has said it suffered some losses, without providing details. A Malian newspaper reported that funerals for some 50 police cadets were to be held on Thursday. Reuters was unable to obtain further details or confirm the services took place. The attack was captured in videos published on social media that showed insurgents setting fire to the presidential jet and dead bodies at the police academy. Only days prior, Mali's junta leader Assimi Goita, who seized power in a coup in 2021, said his army had considerably weakened the armed groups it is fighting with Russia's help. The attack also comes on the heels of a battle with high casualties in July, when insurgents wiped out scores of experienced Russian mercenaries and Malian forces in fighting near Mali's northern border with Algeria.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on September 19-20/2024
Why Is Hamas So Confident That It's Winning?
Jonathan S. Tobin/JNS (Jewish News Syndicate). /September 19, 2024
[O]ne of the key fronts in this war is not in the Middle East. It's in the United States.
[T]he political battle over the war in Gaza has been going pretty much the way the terrorists wanted it to. That's reflected in Mashaal's confidence, as well as Hamas's negotiating tactics and its strategy in Gaza. After Oct. 7, the terrorists have been doing nothing but playing for time. And they expected that the time they needed to outlast the Israeli offensive would be provided to them by Israel's closest ally.
President Joe Biden's initial response to the Oct. 7 massacre was to join Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in saying that the only proper response to this atrocious crime was for Hamas to be "eliminated." But almost as soon as the words were out of his mouth, Biden began to slowly back away from that position. Over the next several months, as Israel's counter-offensive into Gaza began, the United States played a double game. On the one hand, Washington continued to supply Jerusalem with munitions badly needed by the IDF. Eventually, however, it was reported that the Pentagon slow-walked its delivery to maintain leverage over the Israelis.
While the public pressure on Israel was bad, even worse was the duress the administration was employing against Netanyahu behind the scenes as it sought to delay every Israeli effort at finishing off the terrorists.
Administration officials were soon parroting the defeatist line about Hamas being an "idea" that could not be defeated, rather than a terrorist force that could be eliminated. Plenty of "ideas" have been militarily defeated, such as Nazism, which didn't survive the defeat of Adolf Hitler's genocidal regime. But to Americans and Israeli liberals, Hamas is regarded as an eternal force. By adopting this position, the opportunity to convince Palestinians to give up their fantasies about Israel's elimination was thrown away and their century-long war on Zionism prolonged.
As Mashaal told the Times, Hamas viewed all of this as encouragement for its plan to simply... hold out until U.S. and international pressure — heightened by the anti-Israel bias of the mainstream media — forced Israel to stand down and allow the Islamists to emerge as the victor in the war.
The families of the remaining hostages and Netanyahu's political opposition now seek to pressure him to give up the war and sign a ceasefire agreement, even if it means essentially handing Gaza back to Hamas and ensuring a repeat of the horrors of Oct. 7.... Hamas is counting on that sentiment.
But above all, Hamas views American pressure on Israel as its ace in the hole. As Mashaal pointed out, the way that the hostage negotiations have been handled by Washington has amounted to American "recognition" of Hamas as a diplomatic partner as opposed to a despised and outlawed terrorist organization. He is right about that.
They [Hamas] obviously prefer Harris's stand in favor of an "immediate ceasefire" to former President Donald Trump's comments, which amount to a green light to Israel to "finish the job" of eliminating the terrorists.
As the Times article makes clear, Hamas will never budge from its demands that Israel hand back Gaza to them... [T]hey will hold onto many of the hostages, despite the belief among some Israelis that it is Netanyahu's stubbornness or political ambition that is the obstacle to their freedom.
[I]t's easy to understand why the terrorist leader is confident that he can outlast the Israelis ... with American help.
The political battle over the war in Gaza has been going pretty much the way the terrorists wanted it to. That's reflected in the confidence of Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas's "political wing," as well as Hamas's negotiating tactics and its strategy in Gaza. After Oct. 7, the terrorists have been doing nothing but playing for time. And they expected that the time they needed to outlast the Israeli offensive would be provided to them by the United States, Israel's closest ally. Pictured: Mashaal in Amman, Jordan, on September 4, 2016. (Photo by Jordan Pix/ Getty Images)
After nearly a year of suffering and grievous losses, most Israelis and Palestinian Arabs will likely observe the anniversary of the war started by Hamas on Oct. 7 with sorrow. But not everyone. An interview The New York Times conducted with Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas's "political wing," in his luxurious living quarters in Doha, Qatar, revealed he thinks the war has gone just fine.
As the Times put it, Mashaal thinks that Hamas is "winning the war" and is confident that the genocidal Islamist organization will, despite the battering it has received from the Israel Defense Forces, play a "decisive" role in Gaza in the future.
It takes an extraordinary amount of chutzpah to sit in a comfortable place of exile where you are protected by Qatar — an ally of Iran and Hamas — while the Gulf State also pretends to be friendly with the United States. It's odd for a "political" leader to be so blithe about a conflict that has, despite the inflated statistics of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip produced by Hamas, certainly inflicted tremendous harm on his own people. By hiding from the IDF in a warren of tunnels the size of the New York City subway system underneath civilian homes, they set in motion a confrontation that guaranteed that much of the Gaza Strip would be destroyed. And Hamas itself has been severely hurt. Reportedly, 17,000 of its operatives have been killed, and all of its organized military formations are no longer combat-effective. The same is true of its ability to send long-range missiles into Israel.
Survival equals a Hamas victory
By any normal definition of victory or defeat, it's hard to argue that in the aftermath of its orgy of mass murder, rape, torture, kidnappings and wanton destruction in Israel on Oct. 7, Hamas hasn't been beaten.
But Mashaal disagrees, and it's hard to find fault in his reasoning.
While most of us have understandably focused on the fighting in Gaza as well as the way Hezbollah terrorists have been able to essentially de-populate a portion of northern Israel with its indiscriminate fire on civilians, one of the key fronts in this war is not in the Middle East. It's in the United States.
Despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of Americans support Israel and oppose Hamas, the political battle over the war in Gaza has been going pretty much the way the terrorists wanted it to. That's reflected in Mashaal's confidence, as well as Hamas's negotiating tactics and its strategy in Gaza. After Oct. 7, the terrorists have been doing nothing but playing for time. And they expected that the time they needed to outlast the Israeli offensive would be provided to them by Israel's closest ally.
Biden's flip-flops helped Hamas
At first, it seemed as if their bet would not pay off. President Joe Biden's initial response to the Oct. 7 massacre was to join Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in saying that the only proper response to this atrocious crime was for Hamas to be "eliminated." But almost as soon as the words were out of his mouth, Biden began to slowly back away from that position.
Over the next several months, as Israel's counter-offensive into Gaza began, the United States played a double game. On the one hand, Washington continued to supply Jerusalem with munitions badly needed by the IDF. Eventually, however, it was reported that the Pentagon slow-walked its delivery to maintain leverage over the Israelis. While America was playing the faithful ally in one respect, Biden and his administration were soon singing a different tune about the war.
Biden was heavily influenced by the open revolt against a pro-Israel policy from lower-level administrators and congressional staffers. With the Democrats' left-wing base similarly outraged by his initial position of stalwart backing for Israel and the war on Hamas, he realized that it might imperil his chances of re-election. As a result, statements about the war soon were more about its impact on the Palestinians rather than the need to eliminate the terrorists who committed the largest mass slaughter of Jews since World War II and the Holocaust.
This tilt to the left would escalate as the presidential campaign began in early 2024, with gestures from Biden intended to appease the pro-Hamas antisemitic voters in Arab-American strongholds like Dearborn, Michigan, as well as woke left-wing activists who falsely label Israel a "settler-colonialist" and "apartheid" state. Rather than push back against the left's demand for an immediate ceasefire that would essentially save Hamas, the administration began echoing it and pushing for a deal that would end the war at virtually any price, even if it didn't result in freedom for all of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas.
And when Israel forced Hamas's fighters back into their last enclave in southern Gaza, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were just as vocal about demanding that Israel not enter Rafah as the antisemitic demonstrators on America's streets and college campuses.
While the public pressure on Israel was bad, even worse was the duress the administration was employing against Netanyahu behind the scenes as it sought to delay every Israeli effort at finishing off the terrorists.
Administration officials were soon parroting the defeatist line about Hamas being an "idea" that could not be defeated, rather than a terrorist force that could be eliminated. Plenty of "ideas" have been militarily defeated, such as Nazism, which didn't survive the defeat of Adolf Hitler's genocidal regime. But to Americans and Israeli liberals, Hamas is regarded as an eternal force. By adopting this position, the opportunity to convince Palestinians to give up their fantasies about Israel's elimination was thrown away and their century-long war on Zionism prolonged.
Combined with the post-Oct. 7 surge in antisemitism made obvious by the pro-Hamas encampments at elite universities, it gave Hamas every reason not to negotiate seriously for a hostage release deal. As Mashaal told the Times, Hamas viewed all of this as encouragement for its plan to simply hunker down in its remaining tunnel strongholds, and hold out until U.S. and international pressure — heightened by the anti-Israel bias of the mainstream media — forced Israel to stand down and allow the Islamists to emerge as the victor in the war.
Demoralizing the Israelis
It must be recognized that a key element in the Biden administration's efforts was the fact that, as the Times story also noted, many in the leadership of the IDF and Israeli security establishment had adopted similarly defeatist stands about dealing with Hamas.
The conduct of the military leadership — both before and after Oct. 7 — will be a subject for formal investigations and then historical inquiry for many decades. Suffice it to say that this attitude about Hamas seems very much a product of the same thinking that left the country unprepared for the attacks that Shabbat morning and then needing weeks before it could initiate an attack on the perpetrators.
It should be noted that Netanyahu bears responsibility for these failures as the head of the government. But the military leadership should not be shielded from the same opprobrium because of the respect their uniforms and records inspire. As I've heard from so many Israelis in the last year, if the war has not always gone as well as it should have, it was always the fault of the generals, not the rank-and-file soldiers and lower-level officers who have fought bravely and often sacrificed their lives in order to limit Palestinian casualties.
While Israelis have every right to protest against their government even in wartime, Hamas also views the unrest inside the Jewish state as an asset. The families of the remaining hostages and Netanyahu's political opposition now seek to pressure him to give up the war and sign a ceasefire agreement, even if it means essentially handing Gaza back to Hamas and ensuring a repeat of the horrors of Oct. 7. I understand why some feel that way for a number of different reasons, but the fact remains that Hamas is counting on that sentiment.
Claiming U.S. 'recognition'
But above all, Hamas views American pressure on Israel as its ace in the hole. As Mashaal pointed out, the way that the hostage negotiations have been handled by Washington has amounted to American "recognition" of Hamas as a diplomatic partner as opposed to a despised and outlawed terrorist organization. He is right about that. While it's not clear just how closely they are observing the presidential election or counting on one outcome over another, they obviously prefer Harris's stand in favor of an "immediate ceasefire" to former President Donald Trump's comments, which amount to a green light to Israel to "finish the job" of eliminating the terrorists. Hamas's military position inside Gaza is not completely eliminated, but it is a shadow of its pre-October self. And there are even reports now starting to circulate about Gazans drawing some obvious conclusions about the high cost of letting Hamas lead them into disaster after disaster. Even as Israel's focus is increasingly turning towards its northern border and the imperative to stop the Hezbollah fire that has depopulated a large area in the direct line of terrorist fire, the need to continue the work of demolishing tunnels and rooting out remaining Hamas elements is not over. It may take years — something that discourages Israelis, and that infuriates Biden and Harris. But the notion that there is any realistic alternative to continue fighting that would ensure Israeli security — whether in the form of a ceasefire/surrender or bringing international forces into Gaza to stop Hamas — is a pipe dream.
The reality of Palestinian politics
As the Times article makes clear, Hamas will never budge from its demands that Israel hand back Gaza to them. And as long as the hostages are useful to their cause, Hamas will hold onto many of them, despite the belief among some Israelis that it is Netanyahu's stubbornness or political ambition that is the obstacle to their freedom. Moreover, Hamas leaders are right to believe, despite the understandable anger in Gaza, that the basic equation of Palestinian politics remains unchanged. Over the last century, Palestinian groups and leaders have always gained credibility primarily by shedding Jewish blood. Hamas thinks that it will eventually reap a great benefit from the atrocities of Oct. 7 in the form of broad support that will enable it to topple and replace Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah Party in Judea and Samaria as well as Gaza. All they have to do to cash in on that is to survive the war, and they think they've found the formula to enable them to do just that. If left to carry out its tasks without foreign interference, the IDF will eventually eliminate Hamas, though that task will not be accomplished easily or quickly. It can certainly prevent it from returning to power in Gaza, thus ensuring that its reign of terror over Israel as well as Palestinians is over. Still, Mashaal and the rest of the terrorist group are counting on feckless American politicians, ideologically motivated leftist demonstrators and political activists, a media that is always prepared to demonize Israeli efforts at self-defense, as well as war-weariness and anguish about the hostages inside Israel to guarantee their survival. We may hope that they are wrong about that, but it's easy to understand why the terrorist leader is confident that he can outlast the Israelis ... with American help.
Jonathan S. Tobin is editor-in-chief of JNS (Jewish News Syndicate). Follow him @jonathans_tobin.
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EU-Iran relations close to crisis point
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/September 19, 2024
While the EU has maintained a relatively soft stance toward the Iranian government compared to the more hard-line approach adopted by the US, tensions between Brussels and Tehran have been gradually escalating across multiple fronts. This rise in tensions highlights increasing friction, which could lead to significant diplomatic consequences if not managed properly by both sides.
One of the most critical issues contributing to this deterioration is Iran’s role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This involvement has drawn the ire of Western nations, including those in the EU, which see it as an alarming development.
Iran’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved through several distinct phases. Initially, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei endorsed Moscow’s actions, aligning Tehran with Russia’s position. This public endorsement reflected a close relationship between the two nations. However, Iran’s support for Russia did not remain limited to verbal or diplomatic backing.
Over time, Tehran’s role in the conflict escalated from symbolic support to military involvement. Reports emerged in the first year of the war indicating that Iran was supplying Russia with kamikaze drones, which reportedly became a critical component of Moscow’s military operations. These drones, specifically modified by Iranian engineers with advanced explosives, have proven to be highly effective and have caused significant destruction. This underscored Iran’s expanding influence in the conflict and its growing role as a key supplier of military hardware to Russia, further exacerbating tensions between Iran and the West. One of the most critical issues contributing to this deterioration is Iran’s role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war
The next phase in Iran’s involvement saw it take an even more direct approach by sending troops to Crimea to assist Russia in its military operations. In September 2022, these actions were further corroborated when the US Department of Defense confirmed that Iran had supplied Russia with Fath 360 short-range ballistic missiles, which are capable of hitting targets with precision. The EU has issued warnings to Iran about its involvement in supplying military hardware to Russia, particularly ballistic missiles. Its disapproval of Iran’s actions became more evident last week, when Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, submitted a formal proposal to member states urging them to impose sanctions on Tehran.
This was seen as a direct response to Iran’s continued supply of ballistic missiles to Russia, in defiance of earlier warnings. The Iranian government responded with diplomatic action, summoning the ambassadors of the UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands to express its dissatisfaction with the accusations leveled against Tehran regarding its missile transfers. The Iranian leadership has consistently denied supplying such weapons.
Moreover, the UK, France and Germany this month took further steps to counter Iran’s missile supply to Russia. In a joint statement, they described Iran’s actions as a significant escalation in the conflict. “We will be taking immediate steps to cancel bilateral air services agreements with Iran,” the statement read. The three countries also announced their intention to pursue the designation of key entities and individuals associated with Iran’s ballistic missile program. These new measures appear to be aimed at curbing Iran’s ability to provide additional support to Russia, especially in the form of ballistic missile supplies.
In the next stage of these rising tensions, diplomatic relations between the EU and Iran may face complete severance
The second major point of contention that has strained EU-Iran relations is the latter’s nuclear program. Iran’s nuclear ambitions have long been a source of concern for the international community, but in recent years Tehran has made rapid advancements in its nuclear technology. It is now reportedly only a short step away from possessing the capacity to produce nuclear weapons. This alarming development has brought renewed urgency to the issue. Talks aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal have repeatedly failed, leaving diplomatic channels between Iran and the EU at a critical impasse.
Should tensions related to both the Russia-Ukraine war and Iran’s nuclear program continue to escalate, the EU is likely to respond with a series of punitive measures. Firstly, political sanctions will undoubtedly increase, further damaging the already fragile diplomatic relationship between Iran and the EU. These sanctions could target key figures within the Iranian government, as well as individuals associated with its military and nuclear programs.
In addition, economic sanctions may be imposed, significantly disrupting trade between Tehran and European countries. While some limited trade still takes place between Iran and the bloc, comprehensive economic sanctions could effectively halt these exchanges, which would have severe consequences for Iran’s already struggling economy.
In the next stage of these rising tensions, diplomatic relations between the EU and Iran may face complete severance. Such a move would mark a significant shift in international relations and further isolate the Iranian government on the world stage. Without diplomatic ties, it would become exceedingly difficult for Tehran to engage with European nations, resulting in a sharp decline in cooperation on a wide range of issues. In response to this isolation, Iran is likely to escalate its defiance, particularly concerning its nuclear program. This would lead to a dangerous cycle of provocations and sanctions, with no clear resolution in sight. In conclusion, relations between the EU and Iran have now reached their lowest point in years and the situation shows no signs of improvement. With two major issues — Iran's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war and its advancing nuclear program — fueling tensions, the likelihood of further deterioration remains high. If these underlying issues are not addressed soon, the relationship could spiral into a full-blown diplomatic crisis, with serious implications for both sides.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Ball in Europe’s court over Ukraine ceasefire talks
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/September 19, 2024
With the war in Ukraine well into its third year, the conflict remains intense, with developments on multiple fronts. Fighting in the Donetsk region brings reminders of world war-era trenches, while Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 30 km into Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine has also renewed its call to be allowed to use Western weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory. However, despite these efforts, Russian forces continue to gain ground in eastern Ukraine.
Missile strikes and heavy fighting persist in various regions, making the situation fluid and unpredictable. One also has to include developments on the international diplomatic and geopolitical front, as they are important in understanding how fluid the situation is.
Western support for Ukraine has been vital, helping the country sustain its defense. The EU has already offered tremendous support. In a statement to the European Parliament on Tuesday, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said the EU’s financial commitments to Ukraine total about €118 billion ($131 billion), including military, economic and humanitarian aid. Additionally, the EU is working on a $50 billion G7-backed loan package to meet Ukraine’s immediate financial needs.
However, this support, specifically the military aspect, also risks escalating the conflict into a broader European war. Some believe that EU leaders are allowing the conflict to drift without a clear strategy. While there is consensus that support for Ukraine must continue, questions remain. Should the EU initiate negotiations to end the war? Is this conflict purely a Russia-Ukraine issue or does it require an agreement between Russia and the West? The latter seems key, yet negotiations must start somewhere, with the immediate priority being to stop the war. Is this still possible?
Drawing a historical parallel, one could compare Ukraine’s struggles to the Algerian War of Independence from France. Algeria became a French colony after the 1830 invasion and, in 1848, it was annexed into France. Under French rule, violence and exploitation were common, with the French settler population dominating the locals. The war for independence began in 1954, fueled by decades of grievances over colonial oppression. At that time, decolonization movements were growing worldwide, as European empires weakened after the Second World War. The Cold War also played a role, with both the US and the Soviet Union supporting decolonization to expand their spheres of influence. In Algeria, the National Liberation Front launched guerrilla warfare against French forces, sparking a brutal conflict.
Many attempts at negotiations failed but, starting in 1961, secret talks with Swiss mediation paved the way for formal negotiations in Evian-les-Bains, France. Even as fighting raged, the Evian Accords were signed in March 1962. The accords included provisions for a ceasefire, a referendum on Algeria’s future and protections for French settlers. Despite the agreement, sporadic violence continued until Algeria finally gained its independence on July 5, 1962. Relations with France have remained tense ever since.
Drawing a historical parallel, one could compare Ukraine’s struggles to the Algerian War of Independence from France
Ukraine’s history with Russia is much more deeply rooted and goes back more than 1,000 years, to the medieval times of the Kyivan Rus’. Following centuries of Mongol invasions and regional conflicts, most of Ukraine eventually came under Russian control in the late 18th century. After the First World War and the Russian Revolution of 1917, Ukraine briefly declared independence, but it was soon incorporated into the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine declared its independence in 1991. Tensions with Russia have never stopped. They reflect deep historical disputes over territory, identity, political alignment and, more recently, between West and East.
The events leading up to the current war echoed past crises. In 2013, then-President Viktor Yanukovych abandoned a proposed association agreement with the EU, opting instead for closer ties with Russia. This decision triggered the Euromaidan protests, a ricochet of the Orange Revolution that had taken place a decade earlier. As Yanukovych fled Kyiv, leaving a political vacuum, Russia annexed Crimea. In eastern Ukraine, pro-Russian separatists seized control of government buildings, leading to a violent conflict that, despite ceasefire agreements in 2014 and 2015, has persisted ever since. This is clearly a fight that goes deeper into where Ukraine belongs and if it can build closer ties with Europe and the West without antagonizing Russia. This is the key issue.
We cannot avoid thinking that, just as the Algerian War of Independence was part of a larger shift in global power dynamics, the war in Ukraine reflects Russia’s declining influence. Europe, too, is grappling with its changing role on the world stage, as the US is weakened but remains dominant and China rises. This has led some Western analysts to call for Russia’s removal from international bodies like the UN Security Council, but such a move could have unintended consequences, especially as Russia retains a powerful nuclear arsenal, giving it significant leverage.
Negotiations involving all relevant parties, including representatives from disputed regions, should reset all previous agreements and start now
The path to peace in Ukraine may involve some of the lessons learned from Algeria. Negotiations involving all relevant parties, including representatives from disputed regions, should reset all previous agreements and start now. The terms of a ceasefire should be agreed upon and a new referendum, similar to the one in Algeria, could be held in contested regions to determine their status, provided it is carefully monitored and recognized by all parties. Protecting the rights of both ethnic Russians in Ukraine and Ukrainian nationals in contested regions would be essential.
Any agreement would also have to bring about acceptable conditions that preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty without meddling in its domestic politics. Moreover, for stability and long-term peacebuilding, the country should not be an outpost that becomes a consistent security threat to Russia.
Today, I dare to say that, despite Russia starting the war with its invasion, the ball is in fact in Europe’s court. The EU needs to decide on its future relations with Russia. It is now clear that Moscow will not integrate into the Western operating system unless it is given an impactful voice. And this will not happen, simply because its operating system is incompatible with the Western one. The EU needs Ukraine to be the interoperability switch between the two systems, not the firewall. I for one would say that a country’s sovereignty should allow it to choose whoever it wants to ally with. Whether it is to join NATO or the EU, Russia should not have a say. Yet, Ukraine should understand at what cost it will come.
Some European leaders are going as far as declaring the goal of erasing Russia from the international order and adding that, in a conflict with NATO, it would be defeated in three days. Even if NATO does indeed have military superiority, these declarations are dangerous and unrealistic. In the same way, if the goal is to severely weaken Russia in the event of a future broader conflict, such a strategy will probably lead to the broader war it is looking to prevent. And in the meantime, Ukraine will continue to pay the price of a forever war for which Russia has geared up on all fronts, while the West is still in consumerism mode. Negotiations do not need a pause in the conflict to start, as we witnessed in the Algerian War of Independence. Yet, if they succeed, they will ultimately reflect the situation on the ground. I am not sure what the front in Ukraine is telling us, but the international geopolitical situation is pretty clear: it is a weakened Western front.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, CEO of EurabiaMedia, and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Pezeshkian’s visit highlights Iraq’s strategic balancing act
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/September 19, 2024
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian last week traveled to Baghdad on his first official foreign visit. Pezeshkian and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani discussed bilateral cooperation on economic and security matters. The two leaders signed 14 memorandums of understanding, including on key infrastructure projects such as the Shalamcheh-Basra railway line and the development of border industrial zones in Wasit, Maysan and Basra governorates in Iraq. They also agreed to strengthen collaborative efforts to combat cross-border threats. They took a unified stand against the war in Gaza, highlighting the significant threat it posed to Middle Eastern stability and emphasizing the need for a collective regional response to de-escalate tensions.
Bilateral relations between Iraq and Iran have evolved from hostility to tolerance to cooperation over the decades. Having been involved in the nearly decade-long Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s, the two countries have developed a synergistic relationship based on border security, energy trade and economic cooperation. Moreover, Iran holds cultural, religious and strategic influence over Iraq’s majority Shiite population. Iran’s proximity and historical ties to Iraq’s Shiites mean that Tehran remains a key player in Iraqi domestic affairs.
Pezeshkian’s attempt to secure ties with Iraq is in line with similar efforts by his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. During Raisi’s tenure, Iran and Iraq strengthened their already close ties. He prioritized cooperation with Iraq to alleviate the impact of international sanctions, especially focusing on energy relations. Iran supplied Iraq with gas, covering nearly 30 percent of the latter’s electricity needs, despite Iraq’s mounting debt for these energy imports. Border security was a key concern for both nations, with agreements reached to prevent cross-border insurgent activities. Raisi viewed Iraq as a vital partner in regional geopolitics, particularly in opposing the US military presence in the region and bolstering non-oil trade to support both economies under the pressure of sanctions.
Their growing cooperation comes as Iraq has been navigating a delicate balance between its relationships with both the US and Iran. This is essential to maintaining Iraq’s security, stability and sovereignty amid competing pressures from the two geopolitical rivals. The US still has more than 2,000 troops in Iraq to assist in the fight against Daesh, train the Iraqi armed forces and rebuild the country’s defense capabilities after years of conflict. At the same time, Iran wields influence over many Shiite militias in Iraq, particularly the Popular Mobilization Units, which were key to the combating of Daesh.
Bilateral relations between Iraq and Iran have evolved from hostility to tolerance to cooperation over the decades
For Al-Sudani, who has so far not favored one partner to the detriment of the other, this will be a test of his strength as a leader. Having come to power nearly two years ago, Al-Sudani was faced with the challenging task of uniting a nation divided not only by differing domestic interests but also foreign support. He has successfully worked toward carving out a space for Iraq in regional politics and the broader Arab world. Iraq has hosted the annual Baghdad Summit under his aegis and the capital is also set to host the 2025 Arab League Summit. Al-Sudani has also unequivocally expressed Iraq’s intention to maintain diplomatic relations with both Washington and Tehran.
This dynamic has nonetheless been complicated since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. The continued US support for Israel amid the latter’s ongoing hostilities in the Strip is contrasted by the Iraqi and Iranian condemnation of Israeli actions and calls for an end to the war. As the hostilities have expanded into a regional escalation, Iran has been drawn into the war not only through the actions of its proxies in Yemen and Lebanon, but notably also as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
This has made Iraq’s balancing act significantly more challenging, given the three parties’ differing stances on Gaza. Iraq’s own location bordering Iran may make it vulnerable to any further escalations. Pezeshkian’s visit was thus also an exercise in securing Iraq’s strategic cooperation as the regional scope of the Gaza war continues to expand.
Al-Sudani has also unequivocally expressed Iraq’s intention to maintain diplomatic relations with both the US and Iran
Despite signs of progress, the relationship between Iraq and Iran is not without its challenges. A long-standing source of tension between the two Gulf neighbors has been the presence of Iranian Kurdish separatist groups in Iraq who, the Iranian state alleges, played a role in the 2022 nationwide protests against the mandatory use of the hijab. Iranian authorities have demanded the extradition of more than 100 of these separatists. Pezeshkian’s time in Iraq included a visit to Irbil to meet Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.
Pezeshkian is of Azerbaijani ethnicity and has claimed he will make greater efforts toward the political inclusion of ethnic minorities. However, critics question how successful he could be in this endeavor, given the decisive role played by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. It remains to be seen whether Pezeshkian will be able to balance the representation of ethnic minorities with Iran-Iraq cooperation to maintain Iran’s territorial integrity and national security.
While Pezeshkian’s choice for his first official visit might appear to be a continuation of Iran’s favorable stance toward Iraq, this may also indicate a new era in Tehran’s relations with the West and particularly the US. A self-proclaimed reformist, Pezeshkian has made clear his intention to mend ties with the US, as well as Iran’s regional neighbors. Iraq is a strategic actor in this process, given the Gulf state’s ongoing cooperation with the US, its geostrategic location, its key role in the global oil market and its ability to mediate between the West and Iran.
For Iraq, this is part of its effort to balance the US-Iran bilateral competition on its territory. Securing ties with Iran is also crucial for the ongoing post-conflict rebuilding in Iraq, with pro-Iranian militias being influential regarding the degree of stability in the country. At any rate, a successful balancing act would also reaffirm Al-Sudani’s image as a key interlocutor in the Middle East, in line with his ability so far to remain neutral in major global conflicts.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council region. X: @Moulay_Zaid

Opinion - Paging Iran…
Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet, Opinion Contributors/The Hill/ September 19, 2024
Israel is coming for Iran, and for its seven deadly sins.
Mossad’s cunning attack on Tuesday, targeting 4,000 plus Hezbollah operatives by ingeniously detonating pre-planted explosives in their pagers at 3:30 p.m., is proof enough that Jerusalem has had it with Tehran and its ongoing proxy war against Israel.
On Wednesday, the Mossad followed up with a second-round of explosions targeting “thousands of [walkie-talkie] radios and other devices used by the terrorist group.” It was Israel’s second reach-out-and-touch-someone moment. Hezbollah’s senior leadership got Jerusalem’s message: We are at war, and we are escalating.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, is vowing revenge. Ahead of Nasrallah’s scheduled speech today, his cousin, Hashem Safieddine, claimed, “These attacks will certainly be uniquely punished; there will be a bloodily unique revenge.” Coordinating that response may be difficult though. Hezbollah’s leadership is suddenly a bit gun-shy about pagers, cell phones and radios.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei surely got Israel’s message as well, given that Tuesday’s attack targeted and badly wounded Mojtaba Amani, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon.
Tehran has been playing with fire in Israel ever since Oct. 7, and is increasingly putting its nuclear weapons program at risk. Khamenei has badly miscalculated, as Israel’s strategic patience with Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed proxies has come to an end. Although Hezbollah is Iran’s most pressing deadly sin, Oct. 7 was undoubtedly the most evil. The decision to help Hamas stage that attack may have been the beginning of the end for Khamenei and his regime, or at least for its far-reaching nuclear ambitions. Israel has systematically set about destroying Hamas, including boldly assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, its political chief, in downtown Tehran.
Oct. 7. opened the gates of Hell in Israel, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet are determined to close them. But not before Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s ruling regime permanently pass through them.
To get there, Netanyahu has been willing to defy President Biden, mostly notably entering Rafah in the Gaza Strip despite stark warnings by the Biden-Harris administration not to do so. Biden even declared in March, “[Rafah] is a red line.”
Washington should fully embrace Israel’s paging of Hezbollah and Iran. Israel is taking the fight to our enemies in the Middle East. It is fighting to win, to remove a threat, not content to defend into perpetuity.
Iran’s deadly sins are not merely Israel-centric. They are also aimed at the U.S. For too long, the Biden-Harris administration has allowed the Houthis to run amok as a deadly sin in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Houthi attacks continue against civilian and military targets. The IRGC-backed rebels even fired a ballistic missile last Sunday from Yemen that was destroyed in flight by Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome over central Israel. The likely intended target was Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport.
Iranian-controlled militias’ attacks on U.S. troops stationed in Syria, Iraq and Jordan comprise a fifth Iranian deadly sin. They have gone militarily unchecked as the Biden-Harris administration has taken a defensive approach. Consequently, U.S. soldiers and contractors have been killed and wounded, including U.S. Army Staff Sgt. William J. Rivers, Sgt. Kennedy Sanders and Sgt. Breonna Moffett.
They were killed when Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terror group, launched a drone in January into Tower 22, a U.S. military base in Jordan. More than 40 others were injured in the attack The attack on Tower 22 was only one of nearly 170 attacks on U.S. forces in Syria, Iraq and Jordan by Iran-sponsored terrorist groups since Oct. 7.
Iran’s deadly sins extend into Europe as well. Khamenei’s “Arsenals of Evil” partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin has wreaked havoc in Ukraine. Almost daily, Iranian Shahed drones are used by Russia to attack Ukrainian civilian targets and vital infrastructure across the country, killing and wounding countless innocent Ukrainians in apartment buildings, town squares, hospitals and places of business since February 2022. Moreover, just last week, it was reported that Tehran had shipped for the first time deadly close-range ballistic missiles to Russia via the Caspian Sea — a significant escalation.
Perhaps Khamenei’s most tragic deadly sin is being perpetrated against Iran’s women. So-called morality police run wild throughout Iran, dealing out brutal reprisals for trivial offenses. Women are beaten, imprisoned, tried and in some cases have died as a result.
Mahsa Amini, only 22, was one such victim who died after being beaten by morality police for failing to properly wear a hijab. Amini’s death led to the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability Act signed into law in April by Biden. It requires the Executive branch to report to Congress and sanction Iranians responsible for human rights violations.
The Oct. 7 massacre, which prominently featured Hamas raping and murdering Israeli women, was a bloody reminder of how little the Iranian regime values women. This is a deadly sin Iran readily seeks to export across the Middle East.
Israel cannot check every Iranian deadly sin, but its seventh and deadliest sin is one that Jerusalem is determined to destroy: Khamenei’s nuclear weapons program. Tehran is on the verge of a nuclear breakout, and the Pentagon is no longer able to confirm that Iran’s nuclear program is not intended for military purposes.
Indeed, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence reported in July that Khamenei is doing everything consistent with weaponizing his nuclear program — and “installing [even] more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its [highly enriched uranium] stockpile.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken underscored this, saying Iran only needs “one or two weeks” to build a bomb. In actuality, it is probably more like four days, five bombs.
Iran’s nuclear deadly sin is a mortal sin — a potentially decisive, game-changing and game-over sin. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem can afford to let that happen.
Netanyahu was clear when he delivered his remarks to the U.N. General Assembly in 2018, “I also have a message today for the tyrants of Tehran. Israel knows what you’re doing, and Israel knows where you’re doing it. Israel will never let a regime that calls for our destruction to develop nuclear weapons. Not now, not in 10 years, not ever.”
Israel paging Hezbollah was a good start. Now it is time to page Tehran and put a decisive end to all of Iran’s deadly sins.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer.
Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

How did pagers explode in Lebanon and why was Hezbollah using them? Here’s what we know
Tara John, Tamara Qiblawi, Oren Liebermann, Avery Schmitz and Yong Xiong, CNN/Wed, September 19/2024
Hundreds of pagers carried by Hezbollah members in Lebanon blew up nearly simultaneously on Tuesday in an unprecedented attack that surpasses a series of covert assassinations and cyber-attacks in the region over recent years in its scope and execution.
The Iran-backed militant group said the wireless devices began to explode around 3:30 p.m. local time in a targeted Israeli attack on Hezbollah operatives. CNN learned that Israel was behind the attack, which was a joint operation between Israel’s intelligence service, the Mossad, and the Israeli military. The Lebanese government condemned the attack as “criminal Israeli aggression.” Israel’s military, which has engaged in tit-for-tat strikes with Hezbollah since the start of the war with Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza last year, has refused to comment publicly on the explosions.
The pagers that exploded were new and had been purchased by Hezbollah in recent months, a Lebanese security source told CNN. A Taiwanese manufacturer said on Wednesday the pagers, which bore the company’s mark, had been made by a European distributor. The Lebanese source did not provide any information on the exact date the pagers were bought or their model. Experts say the explosions, unprecedented in their scale and nature, underscore Hezbollah’s vulnerability as its communication network was compromised to deadly effect.
Who was affected?
Several areas of the country were affected, particularly Beirut’s southern suburbs, a populous area that is a Hezbollah stronghold. Footage showed shoppers and pedestrians collapsing in the street following the blasts. The blood-soaked injured bore flesh wounds, clips showed, including lost fingers, damaged eyes, and abdominal lacerations.
At least nine people were killed, including a child, and about 2,800 people were wounded, overwhelming Lebanese hospitals.
Why was Hezbollah using pagers?
Hezbollah has long touted secrecy as a cornerstone of its military strategy, forgoing high-tech devices to avoid infiltration from Israeli and US spyware. Unlike other non-state actors in the Middle East, Hezbollah units are believed to communicate through an internal communications network. This is considered one of the key building blocks of the powerful group that has long been accused of operating as a state-within-a-state. At the start of the year, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called on members and their families in southern Lebanon, where fighting with Israeli forces across the border has raged, to dump their cellphones, believing Israel could track the movement of the Iran-backed terror network through those devices. “Shut it off, bury it, put it in an iron chest and lock it up,” he said in February. “The collaborator (with the Israelis) is the cell phone in your hands, and those of your wife and your children. This cell phone is the collaborator and the killer.”
Hezbollah instead went low-tech by turning to pagers, according to Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and Middle East analyst. The pagers would have prompted Hezbollah members to contact one another through those phone lines. But even that option was not without risk. “Hezbollah regressed back to these devices thinking [they] would be safer for its combatants to use instead of phones which could be GPS targeted,” Melamed said. “These very low-tech devices were used against them and very possibly deepening the stress and embarrassment on its leaders.”
How did the pagers explode?
As Lebanon reels from the attack, speculation has mounted on how low-tech wireless communication devices could have been exploited. Citing American and other officials briefed on the operation, the New York Times reported Tuesday that Israel hid explosives inside a batch of pagers ordered from Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo and destined for Hezbollah. A switch was embedded to detonate them remotely, it added.
Multiple photos from Lebanon on social media appear to show damaged Gold Apollo pagers. CNN cannot geolocate the images from social media but has verified they were published on Tuesday, the same day as the explosions. At least one pager shown in the images was a Gold Apollo AR924 model. Gold Apollo founder Hsu Ching-kuang said its European distributor, a Hungary-based company called BAC Consulting, established a relationship with the Taiwanese firm about three years ago.
At first, BAC only imported Gold Apollo’s pager and communication products, he said. Later, the company told Gold Apollo they wished to make their own pager and asked for the right to use the Taiwanese firm’s brand, he said. Hsu said Gold Apollo had encountered at least one anomaly in its dealings with the distributor, citing a wire transfer that took a long time to clear. The AR294 model “is produced and sold by BAC. We only provide brand trademark authorization and have no involvement in the design or manufacturing of this product,” Gold Apollo said in its statement. CNN has reached out to BAC Consulting and its founder for comment. Budapest-based BAC’s website describes the company as “agents of change with a network of consultants,” finding “innovative solutions” on international relations, the environment, and development and innovation.
Gold Apollo shipped about 260,000 pagers from Taiwan between January 2022 and August 2024 but there is no record of the devices being sent to Lebanon or the Middle East, a senior Taiwanese security official told CNN on Wednesday. David Kennedy, a former US National Security Agency intelligence analyst, told CNN the explosions seen in videos shared online appear to be “too large for this to be a remote and direct hack that would overload the pager and cause a lithium battery explosion.” Human operatives inside Hezbollah would have been key to the operation, he added.
“This is one of the most widescale and coordinated attacks that I’ve personally ever seen. The complexity needed to pull this off is incredible,” he said. “It would have required many different intelligence components and execution. Human intelligence (HUMINT) would be the main method used to pull this off, along with intercepting the supply chain in order to make modifications to the pagers.”
What is the purpose of the attacks?
At least part of the message to Hezbollah is clear: “We can reach you anywhere, anytime, at the day and moment of our choosing and we can do it at the press of a button,” according to CNN’s Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst, John Miller.
The operation was also likely designed to create a high-level of paranoia among Hezbollah members, degrade their ability to recruit people, and erode confidence in the leadership of Hezbollah and their ability to secure their operations and people. Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence and one of the country’s leading strategic experts, said the Israeli attack displayed “very impressive penetration capabilities, technology and intelligence.” He speculated on X that Israel could have been sending a warning to Nasrallah. “It seems the goal was to pass a message that sharpens the dilemma of Nasrallah: how much is he willing to pay for continuing to attack Israel and backing [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar?” Yadlin wrote. “The organization, which prides itself on secrecy and a high level of security, found itself penetrated and exposed.”
Asked why Israel might have launched such an attack, Kim Ghattas, a Lebanese journalist and contributing writer to The Atlantic magazine, told CNN that it could be an attempt “to cow Hezbollah into submission, and make clear that an increase of their attacks against Israel will be met with even further violence.”
Or it could be a “prelude to an Israeli large-scale campaign against [Lebanon], at a time when Hezbollah is facing the chaos of this latest very science-fiction-like attack against its operatives.” Israel, which has yet to publicly comment on the deadly incident, leads the list of actors with the intent to degrade Hezbollah, experts say.
It is also one in a small group of countries with the technological ability to infiltrate a supply chain in such a way. “What intelligence service has the demonstrative capability to pull an operation like this off? That’s a very short list with Israel at the top,” said Miller, the CNN analyst. Israel has been linked to, or accused of, previous remote attacks in the region. Experts believe Israel and the United States were responsible for deploying a complex computer virus called stuxnet that destroyed centrifuges at an Iranian nuclear facility in 2009 and 2010.
In 2020, an Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated in Tehran by a remote-controlled machine gun operating out of a car that was reportedly using facial recognition. This year, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed with an explosive device covertly hidden in the guest house where he was staying in the Iranian capital, a source familiar with the matter told CNN. Iran blamed Israel for the assassinations.
Tuesday’s attack raises tensions in the already inflamed region. Hostilities are at an all-time high between Israel and Hezbollah following Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. Hezbollah, which has a formidable arsenal of weapons, has said its attacks on Israel are in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians in Gaza.
Global leaders have been scrambling to prevent an escalation. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke twice with his Israeli counterpart, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, according to two US defense officials. The official would not specify when the calls took place. Though the two are in regular contact, it’s uncommon to schedule two calls in one day and shows how seriously the US views the current situation.
CNN’s Christian Edwards, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Jeremy Diamond, Sabrina Shulman, Wayne Chang, Eric Cheung and Jessie Yeung contributed reporting.