English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 22/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Do you not know that your bodies are members of Christ? Should I therefore take the members of Christ and make them members of a prostitute?
First Letter to the Corinthians 06/12-20/:”‘All things are lawful for me’, but not all things are beneficial. ‘All things are lawful for me’, but I will not be dominated by anything. ‘Food is meant for the stomach and the stomach for food’, and God will destroy both one and the other. The body is meant not for fornication but for the Lord, and the Lord for the body. And God raised the Lord and will also raise us by his power. Do you not know that your bodies are members of Christ? Should I therefore take the members of Christ and make them members of a prostitute? Never! Do you not know that whoever is united to a prostitute becomes one body with her? For it is said, ‘The two shall be one flesh.’But anyone united to the Lord becomes one spirit with him. Shun fornication! Every sin that a person commits is outside the body; but the fornicator sins against the body itself. Or do you not know that your body is a temple of the Holy Spirit within you, which you have from God, and that you are not your own? For you were bought with a price; therefore glorify God in your body.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 21-22/2024
Text and Video: Commemorating the Martyrdom of Wissam al-Hassan and the Betrayal, Cowardice, and Failure of the March 14 Party Leaders/Elias Bejjani/October 19/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video/The Lebanese Zajal Troupe’s Echo: Come, Let’s Congratulate Mikati/ Remember That Mikati is an Assad-made puppet, full of empty rhetoric, & brought in as PM by Hezbollah.
Iran in the Final Stages Before the Regime's Collapse"/Colonel Charbel Barakat/October 20/2024
Hochstein in talks with Israel, Lebanon about ceasefire based on 1701
Hezbollah hides millions in cash, gold under Beirut hospital, says Israel
Hezbollah's gold mine catches fire: Nasrallah's bunker under hospital held half billion dollars
Will Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah's financial network shift war? - analysis
US Pushes for Pre-Election Cease-Fire in Lebanon, Gaza Conflicts
Israeli strikes destroy branches of Hezbollah finance armScroll back up to restore default view.
Envoy Hochstein says US working with Lebanon and Israel to end conflict for good
Israel busts spy ring acting for Iran, security services say
Lebanon surveys damage after Israeli air strike on Hezbollah-linked bank
A letter To President Joseph R. Biden From Us Congressmen, Darrell Issa & Darin LaHood
We were completely at Hezbollah's mercy,' former UN peacekeeper says
Crippling their wallets: IDF strikes Hezbollah finance infrastructure in Beirut
Lebanon Is at a Crossroad: Either Peace or an Alternative Arena/Sam Menassa/Mon, October 21, 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 21-22/2024
Israeli Druze Colonel Killed During Jabaliya Operation
Exclusive-Top UN officials to Netanyahu: Help us ease civilian suffering
White House: Biden 'deeply concerned' about release of documents on Israel's possible attack plans
Iran complains to UN nuclear watchdog about Israeli threats to its atomic sites, spokesman says
‘We don’t want aid. We want dignity.’ Air-dropped aid kills 3-year-old Palestinian boy in southern Gaza, family says
The US can 'ill afford' another war now its rivals are teaming up so well, US general says
Seven Israelis arrested for spying for Iran, providing info on army bases
Who is Samr Abu Zamer, widow of Yahya Sinwar?
Two killed in missile attack on car in Syrian capital, state media say
Former B.C. premier Christy Clark interested in replacing Trudeau if PM steps down

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 21-22/2024
The Dynamics of a Changing Middle East/Charles Chartouni/This is Beirut/October 21/2024
Coptic Christian Man Hacked to Pieces and Dumped in Cairo Canal/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/October 21/2024
Biden's Hollow Warnings to China Are Leading to War/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/October 21, 2024
Is Jabaliya the key to defeating Hamas?/Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
A Major War Awaits the ‘Great Satan’/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/Mon, October 21, 2024
Is the World Ready for a Religious Comeback?/The New York Times/Mon, October 21, 2024

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 21-22/2024
Text and Video: Commemorating the Martyrdom of Wissam al-Hassan and the Betrayal, Cowardice, and Failure of the March 14 Party Leaders
Elias Bejjani/October 19/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135924/
On the anniversary of the assassination of martyr Wissam al-Hassan, it is crucial to remember that Hezbollah, Iran's armed terrorist proxy, is the force behind his murder. This group, with its long and bloody history, has assassinated hundreds of Lebanese who dared to oppose its occupation and criminal grip on the country. Wissam al-Hassan was one of many courageous figures who paid the ultimate price for resisting Hezbollah’s dominance and exposing its destructive agenda.
Hezbollah has become a relentless assassination machine, silencing anyone who stands against it—politicians, military figures, journalists, and activists alike. Its operations are not isolated incidents of political rivalry; they are part of a systematic effort by Iran's regime to tighten its control over Lebanon through fear, violence, and bloodshed. From Wissam al-Hassan to countless others, Hezbollah’s methods have always been ruthless and calculated, designed to eliminate any figure who advocates for Lebanese sovereignty and independence.
What is perhaps even more appalling is the role played by Lebanon's political elite in enabling this occupation. The heads of Lebanon’s political parties, including many who once identified with the March 14 coalition, have betrayed the principles of freedom and resistance that Wissam al-Hassan and others died defending. Instead of standing firm against Hezbollah’s tyranny, they chose to collaborate with it, seeking personal gains—positions of power, government posts, and political influence—while turning a blind eye to Hezbollah’s systematic destruction of Lebanon’s independence.
These political leaders, who once vowed to oppose Hezbollah, now participate in a government that grants legitimacy to the very group responsible for the assassination of one of their own. Their actions have not only undermined justice for Wissam al-Hassan and other martyrs but have also paved the way for Hezbollah to continue its campaign of terror unchecked.
Today, as we remember Wissam al-Hassan, we must recognize that the real enemy is not just Hezbollah but also the corrupt political class that has sacrificed the country’s sovereignty for personal interests. Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon remains strong, not solely because of its weapons and militias, but because the political leaders have sold out the nation’s independence in exchange for short-term personal benefits. This betrayal is as damaging as the assassinations themselves.
Hezbollah will continue its deadly path unless the Lebanese people, and the international community, hold both the terrorist group and its enablers within the political system accountable for their crimes. It’s time to expose not only Hezbollah’s murderous agenda but also the complicity of those who have allowed it to thrive, to restore justice for Wissam al-Hassan and countless other victims of their treachery.

Elias Bejjani/Text and Video/The Lebanese Zajal Troupe’s Echo: Come, Let’s Congratulate Mikati/ Remember That Mikati is an Assad-made puppet, full of empty rhetoric, & brought in as PM by Hezbollah.
Elias Bejjani/October 18, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135843/
In the spirit of the “Let’s congrtulate Mikati” culture, today a large number of politicians, journalists, and activists from the Lebanese Zajal troupes suffered from verbal diarrhea and a state of “hypocrisy and babble.” They expressed, in their poetic fashion tweets and statements, their amazement at Mikati’s so-called courage, claiming that he “drank lion’s milk” for denouncing a statement by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, which insulted Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence. Ghalibaf reportedly told a French newspaper that Tehran was ready to negotiate with France regarding the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
It’s both strange and amusing how these hypocritical “echoes” drown in their own sycophancy. Where was Mikati during the Beirut port explosion, when Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon literally controlled the situation? Where was his so-called “lion’s milk” when the Iranian Foreign Minister came to Lebanon and prevented Mikati and Berri from acting on what they had agreed with Jumblatt, namely the demand to implement international Resolution 1701 and call for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist militia? And where were all these mouthpieces when Mikati cowardly, sycophantically, and brazenly declared that the decision of war and peace does not rest in the hands of the Lebanese government, saying, “We did not declare war, so we cannot end it”?
Because these hypocrites have the memory of a fish, let’s remind them—though they surely know better—that Mikati is a product of the criminal Assad regime. He is corrupt and a thief, having amassed his wealth from the pockets of the Lebanese people. It was the Assad regime that inserted him into Lebanese politics, and Hezbollah that appointed him as head of the current government, which is 100% a Hezbollah government. He is nothing more than a mouthpiece and a puppet, just like all his ministers and, with them, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri, who has been tamed, stripped of his authority, and had his freedom confiscated since the battles of Iqlim al-Tuffah.
Therefore, there is no value or weight to their false claims of a Mikati “uprising,” for the man is, in reality, merely a tool—nothing more than a tool—in the hands of Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist militia. End of story.

Iran in the Final Stages Before the Regime's Collapse"
Colonel Charbel Barakat/October 20/2024
(freely quoted and translated from Arabic by: Elias Bejjani, LCCC Website editor & publisher)
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135958/
In an analysis by Colonel Charbel Barakat, a retired Lebanese Army officer and terrorism expert who testified before the U.S. Congress on Iranian and Syrian terrorism, the Syrian occupation of Lebanon, Jihadism, and peace in the Middle East, he presents a compelling scenario on the imminent collapse of Iran's Mullah regime. Barakat argues that Iran orchestrated the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and is now driving a parallel conflict from Lebanon against Israel. He sees these actions as desperate attempts by the Iranian regime to reassert dominance and avoid exclusion from Middle East peace initiatives led by Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia.
Colonel Barakat explains that the Iranian regime is in its final stages of collapse. He points to the peaceful path taken by Gulf states, like the UAE and Bahrain, which saw success in rapprochements with Israel and other Arab nations. These developments left Iran isolated from diplomatic negotiations, undermining Tehran's claims of controlling key Middle Eastern capitals like Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana'a. In response to this diplomatic isolation, Iran provoked the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which culminated in the brutal conflict that extended to Lebanon.
Barakat uncovers that the Iranian regime's motivations for the attacks were to showcase its relevance and prevent peace initiatives from advancing without Tehran's involvement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, long aware of the existential threat posed by Iran's nuclear program and regional destabilization efforts, responded forcefully by mobilizing Israel for a protracted war. Barakat highlights that Netanyahu's aggressive stance, which included decisive military action in Gaza, was aimed at crippling terrorism and neutralizing Iran's ability to manipulate conflicts.
He condemns Iran's subsequent decision to escalate tensions in Lebanon through Hezbollah, referring to the campaign as a "war of attrition" aimed at distracting Israeli forces and stretching their resources. Barakat praises Israel's measured response, noting that while Israel focused on Gaza, it also prepared for the inevitable confrontation with Hezbollah. He asserts that dismantling Hezbollah, though difficult, is crucial to breaking Tehran's influence over Lebanon and the wider region.
Barakat emphasizes that Israel's current military operations, targeting Hezbollah's leadership and infrastructure, are necessary despite the toll they take on Lebanon. He explains that Hezbollah's fortified positions along the Blue Line have long been prepared for such a conflict, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards directly overseeing the militia's operations. He predicts that Israel's relentless campaign will continue until Hezbollah is fully eradicated, regardless of the humanitarian costs in southern Lebanon, as Israel refuses to allow Hezbollah or Tehran to manipulate ceasefire negotiations.
Barakat strongly supports Israel's actions, viewing them as a necessary step toward regional stability. He expresses gratitude for Israel's sacrifices, which he believes will rid Lebanon of Hezbollah's stranglehold and weaken the Iranian regime. He advises patience, urging observers not to rush to judgment on Israel's operations. According to him, once the fog of war lifts and the Iranian regime collapses, it will become clear that Israel’s intervention was vital for the future of the Middle East.
Colonel Barakat concludes with a bold prediction: the end of the Iranian Mullah regime is near. He argues that Iran's costly interventions in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have weakened the regime domestically, with Iranians themselves increasingly disillusioned by poverty and repression. The final blow, Barakat suggests, will come from Israel, whose military action against Iran's proxies will hasten the regime's downfall. He envisions a new Middle East, liberated from the grip of extremist ideologies imposed by the Mullahs, where cooperation and peace prevail.
This analysis by Colonel Charbel Barakat, a seasoned expert on Middle Eastern terrorism, paints a vivid picture of the Iranian regime’s impending collapse and praises Israel’s efforts to dismantle Hezbollah and Hamas as part of a broader strategy to end Tehran’s reign of terror.

Hochstein in talks with Israel, Lebanon about ceasefire based on 1701
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
US special envoy Amos Hochstein stressed the importance of not tying the IDF-Hezbollah war to other conflicts in the region, alluding to the larger Israeli-Iranian one, or the Israel-Hamas war. US special envoy Amos Hochstein is in the region to hold talks with Israel and Lebanese officials about an IDF-Hezbollah ceasefire based on United Security Council resolution 1701, which set the ceasefire terms that ended the Second Lebanon war in 2006. “We’re going to have a substantive conversation with the government of Lebanon [and] with the government of Israel about how best to bring about a cessation of hostilities to end this conflict,” Hochstein told reporters at a press event in Beirut. He said that Lebanon and Israel just committing to UN resolution 1701 was not enough and that the United States was working to devise a formula to end the conflict once and for all. He spoke more than a year into the IDF-Hezbollah war, which has escalated in the last month to include an IDF ground invasion into southern Lebanon and intensive Israeli aerial strikes against Hezbollah targets in Beirut. “This is my sixth, or maybe seventh visit to Lebanon in the past year,” Hochstein said.
“While we spent 11 months containing the conflict, we were not able to resolve it. In each of my visits, I cautioned that the situation was urgent and the status quo was not sustainable. We were either going to reach a solution or things are going to escalate out of control,” the special envoy said.
He recalled that on past visits he had cautioned about the urgency of resolving the situation, noting that options to resolve the conflict had been rejected.
Conflict needs immediate resolution, Hochstein says
Now, he said, “the situation has escalated out of control, as we feared that it could.” He stressed the importance of not tying the IDF-Hezbollah war to other conflicts in the region, alluding to the larger Israeli-Iranian one, or the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza.
Hezbollah had initially said it would only consider a ceasefire with Israel once one was reached in Gaza. Israel had initially sought to separate those two fronts but has recently considered whether an overall deal with Iran and Hezbollah that included Gaza could be a way to pressure Hamas into releasing the 101 hostages it holds in the enclave. “I want to be very, very clear,” Hochstein said, stressing that “tying Lebanon’s future to other conflicts in the region was not and is not in the interest of the Lebanese people.” He underscored the importance of Resolution 1701, which bans non-state actors such as the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah from operating in southern Lebanon next to the Israeli border. The resolution seeks to strengthen the Lebanese Army by insisting that it is the only armed force that can operate in that border area. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in the region from Monday through Friday and is also expected to place an IDF-Hezbollah ceasefire on his agenda. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with him today. “The Secretary will also discuss the need to reach a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that fully implements UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and allows civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return to their homes,” the State Department said. Israel has also insisted that 1701 must be implemented, but wants to see a plan for how that would actually happen. Israel has told the international community that it respects the role of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in monitoring compliance with Resolution 1701, but said it needs additional help from outside sources in fulfilling that role. Looking forward, Israel would want to see UNIFIL work together with the Lebanese Army to help ensure compliance with the resolution.
It has long been argued that the international community, including the United Nations peacekeeping force, has not taken implementation seriously.
Hochstein told reporters as much when he spoke to them in Beirut on Monday.
UNSC resolution 1701 “was successful at ending the [Second Lebanon] war in 2006, but we must be honest that no one did anything to implement it,” he said.
“There is no one who can look at the last 18 years and say that anyone did anything to implement 1701,” he explained. “The lack of implementation over those years contributed to the conflict that we are in today. That must change, because both sides simply committing to 1701 is just not enough,” Hochstein said. He indicated that among those who must commit to strengthening the Lebanese army and weakening Hezbollah was the Lebanese government itself.
“I’m back here in Beirut today for discussions with the government of Lebanon, Lebanese armed forces, other political leaders, and frankly, anyone else who is willing [and] able to play a critical role in setting Lebanon on a new course of strength, security, and stability, and ultimately, economic prosperity,” he said. The global community must support Lebanon in this endeavor, Hochstein said. “The government of Lebanon and all its leaders will need the world’s support, and the United States and our partners are committed to supporting them.
“Lebanon’s government can and should provide for all of the people of Lebanon – and to do that effectively, it will need to put its people’s needs first. The world will stand by Lebanon and its leaders if they make the brave and the hard choices that are required at this time to benefit all of the Lebanese people,” he said. “We’re committed to the Lebanese people, and we are committed to Lebanon’s future, and that’s what I was here to talk about today.”For any ceasefire to work, both the Lebanese and the Israelis need to know that Resolution 1701 will be fully implemented. What needs to happen here, is not an agreement that a ceasefire would be based on Resolution 1701, but an agreement on what details should be in place to implement it. The question is “what are the things that will have to be done in addition in order to make sure that it’s implemented fairly accurately, transparently, so that everybody knows the path that we’re on,” Hochstein said. The United States, the international community, and the people in the region need to know that this time around the ceasefire will hold and that there is not going to be another round of conflict in the coming months or years, he said.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, requested that Israel protect civilians and infrastructure in Lebanon, and bring about a ceasefire as soon as possible. He also denounced the attacks on UNIFIL bases, and expressed his desire to allow the forces to fulfill their role in southern Lebanon. Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said on Monday in Beirut that the league’s priority was to achieve an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon, and he called for Israel’s prompt withdrawal from any Lebanese territories it has occupied or entered.
Aboul Gheit was also asked if Hezbollah could be destroyed, to which he replied: “You cannot destroy an idea.”

Hezbollah hides millions in cash, gold under Beirut hospital, says Israel
Reuters/October 21, 2024
Hezbollah has stashed hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and gold in a bunker built under a hospital in Beirut, Israel's military said on Monday, adding it will not strike the facility as it keeps up attacks against the group's financial assets. Fadi Alameh, a Lebanese lawmaker with the Shi'ite Amal Movement party and the director of the hospital in question, Al-Sahel, told Reuters that Israel was making false and slanderous claims and called on the Lebanese Army to visit and show it only had operating rooms, patients and a morgue. Alameh said the hospital was being evacuated. Israel's military said it was not going to strike the facility. Reuters could not independently verify the details provided by the Israeli military's chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, which he said had been collected by Israeli intelligence for years. Hezbollah could not immediately be reached for comment. In a televised statement, Hagari said Hezbollah's former leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whom Israel killed last month, had built the bunker which was designed for lengthy stays. "There are hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and gold inside the bunker right now. I'm calling on the Lebanese government, Lebanese authorities, and the international organizations - don't allow Hezbollah to use the money for terror and to attack Israel," Hagari said. "The Israeli Air Force is monitoring the compound, as you can see. However, we will not strike the hospital itself," Hagari said. Israeli Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi told troops in Lebanon that overnight between Sunday and Monday, aircraft had struck around 30 sites belonging to Al-Qard al-Hassan, which Israel says is Hezbollah's financial arm.

Hezbollah's gold mine catches fire: Nasrallah's bunker under hospital held half billion dollars
Gadi Zaig/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari revealed on Monday night that the former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's bunker in Dahieh in southern Beirut was located underneath a hospital - which held gold and half a billion dollars in cash. One of his bunkers was located beneath the Al-Sahel Hospital and was used as Nasrallah's emergency bunker, according to the IDF. The hospital has been evacuated following Israeli claims a Hezbollah cash bunker is located beneath it, hospital director Fadi Alameh told Reuters on Monday. Hagari said that Israel will not strike the hospital. Alameh denied the allegation and called on the Lebanese army to visit the site. An N12 report said that it serves as Hezbollah's central money warehouse, where the vast majority of the organization's money stolen from Lebanese citizens and used for terrorism is hidden. The IDF revealed a graphic photo and a video simulation of the structure. "This bunker is deliberately placed under the hospital and on both sides of it," Hagari continued. "You can see the buildings under which the entrance shafts to the bunker are located. "This money could and still can go to rebuilding the state of Lebanon. This money had been intended to go exclusively to arming the terrorist organization Hezbollah and had no other destination." He said that IAF aircraft are monitoring the compound "and will continue to do so. Calling on Lebanese to take a stand. "We call on the citizens of Lebanon, the Lebanese government, and international institutions - do not allow Hezbollah to keep terrorist funds under a hospital. Even in the coming hours, we will continue to attack Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon, including in Beirut in Dahieh. "Our war is not against the citizens of Lebanon - but against a murderous terrorist organization which continues to arm itself and align itself with the interests of the Islamic Republic regime. We will continue to work to create security that will allow the return of our residents of the north to their homes."Hagari also revealed that the IDF eliminated in Syria a senior member of the terrorist organization's financial system, Ynet reported. The "Qard al-Hasan" bank, which was founded in the 1980s as a charity, has developed into a powerful financial institution that currently serves over 200,000 people and manages most of Hezbollah's economic activity, Maariv reported. **Reuters contributed to this report.

Will Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah's financial network shift war? - analysis
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
The question now is whether this war will stretch into next year or whether the new phase of strikes is a game changer.
On October 21 the IDF called on Lebanese to leave areas close to dozens of Hezbollah-run financial institutions. Overnight, the IDF then conducted a series of strikes on “dozens of facilities and sites used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to finance its terrorist activities against the State of Israel,” the army said. The target of the strikes was the association al-Qard al-Hassan. The IDF says the organization “directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase of weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing. The Hezbollah terrorist organization stores billions of dollars in the association’s branches, including money that was directly held under the name of the terrorist organization. The strikes on these buildings are designed to show the Shi’ite community in Lebanon that Hezbollah cannot protect funds deposited at its institutions. Al-Qard al-Hassan is one of many Hezbollah-run parallel institutions that basically act as a state within a state in Lebanon. Hezbollah created this parallel state to insulate itself from sanctions, to expand its grip on Lebanon, and also to hold the Shi’ite minority hostage. Shi’ites form the base of Hezbollah supporters. They don’t only back Hezbollah. They also back Amal, another powerful group in Lebanon. The head of Amal is the speaker of parliament. Lebanese politics is sectarian. It is officially sectarian, such that people of various religious groups have to vote within their group. That means that for Shi’ites, the system forces them to be hostage to Hezbollah, in a sense. Hezbollah preys on this. Hezbollah's financial backbone
For those Shi’ites, the only other choice is basically Amal, and Amal is also allied to Hezbollah. Hezbollah preys on this system by using organizations such as al-Qard al-Hassan. If the people who trusted in Hezbollah institutions see them literally collapse because of IDF bombing, will they walk away from Hezbollah?This is a big question mark. Bombing banks and eviscerating the wealth of local people could backfire. It could also show that all the state-building Hezbollah has done is now empty, because Hezbollah itself is incapable of “defending” Lebanon.
Hezbollah poses as a “resistance” but it looks increasingly hollow. On the other hand, Hezbollah could now pose as “too big to fail” and demand that the Lebanese state make up for its losses. Lebanon may now be at a new crossroads. Israel is trying to give the state a chance to reclaim itself from Hezbollah. By weakening the Hezbollah parallel state system, such as al-Qard al-Hassan, the state could swoop in and help the affected locals. The Lebanese state has shown it is not ready or capable of doing this. Israel has carried out its war on Hezbollah in a series of phases. The first one was what one might call the “phony war” of October 8 to September 17. This was a war where Hezbollah attacked Israel daily but the attacks mostly targeted IDF sites near the border and also Israeli communities on the border. Those communities were evacuated.
Then Hezbollah suffered losses from the pager incident and also the IDF’s strikes on Hezbollah command and control in the last two weeks of September. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed. The IDF launched Operation Northern Arrows on September 23 with 1,600 airstrikes. Thus began the third phase, the air war that pummeled Hezbollah. On October 1 the ground war began, which could be seen as the fourth phase. Now the phase of striking Hezbollah institutions has begun. This could cut into Hezbollah’s balance sheet and bankrupt the group. However, Hezbollah doesn’t need that much money to keep functioning. Iran backs Hezbollah with cash from Iran and also cash and oil swaps in Syria that help fund Hezbollah. It’s plausible Iran’s foreign minister and Iranian officials brought cash for Hezbollah aboard planes flown to Beirut this month. For a million dollars, around 1,000 Hezbollah fighters can be funded for a month. For $50m., 50,000 could be funded. Hezbollah likely can still keep up the fight and some of its men are likely fine with being paid in arrears. The question then relates to their families and social network. Will supporters of Hezbollah feel the organization has failed them? Will they demand it concede and accept a ceasefire? Western officials want a ceasefire. But Hezbollah likely won’t agree to UN Resolution 1701 and withdraw from the border. If it won’t withdraw then it must be forced off the high ground it controls near Israel’s border. The IDF is doing this slowly so far. This war on Hezbollah has lasted almost a month. The 2006 war lasted a month. The question is whether this war will stretch into next year or if the new phase of strikes is a game-changer.

US Pushes for Pre-Election Cease-Fire in Lebanon, Gaza Conflicts
Dan Williams and Dana Khraiche/Bloomberg/October 21, 2024
US officials traveled to the Middle East in a last-ditch effort to secure a cease-fire in Israel’s wars with Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas ahead of the presidential election early next month.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Israel and other countries starting Monday — his 11th trip to the region since the Israel-Hamas war started last October — while US envoy Amos Hochstein landed in Beirut. Their mission will be to attempt to negotiate at least a pause in the multi-front conflict, which has seen fierce fighting between Israel and the two militant groups in both Lebanon and Gaza. “We are either going to reach a solution or things are going to escalate out of control,” Hochstein told reporters on Monday after meeting Lebanon’s parliamentary speaker, Nabih Berri, a key interlocutor between the West and Hezbollah. Focus needs to be done to properly implement United Nations resolution 1701, he said, referring to the peace agreement put in place after Israel’s last war with Hezbollah in 2006. Hochstein’s visit came after Israel widened its bombing campaign in Lebanon over the weekend, targeting financial institutions it says help fund Hezbollah’s military operations. The move to further degrade the militant group after weeks of air assaults and ground battles included at least 11 strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday, according to Lebanese media. Israel has relentlessly targeted the area — where Hezbollah has a known presence — as well as towns and villages just over the border.
Hezbollah has been firing missiles into northern Israel since the start of the war in Gaza, and stepped up its barrage following Israel’s escalation. US President Joe Biden’s decision to send Hochstein this week “is signalling the urgency of a lasting cease-fire in Lebanon,” said Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Hezbollah and its backers in Iran are likely seeking a carefully orchestrated next step: how to deescalate to a threshold where Hezbollah will be able to salvage its weapons stockpiles and rank and file fighters.”
Package Deal
An Israeli official told Bloomberg that, after more than a year of war, Israel is open to a package deal that would calm the front in southern Lebanon, release hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and allow more aid into the Palestinian territory. Officials in the country have said they want resolution 1701 — which is supposed to keep Hezbollah away from the Israeli border — stringently implemented by Lebanese authorities and for UN peacekeepers to report more reliably on violations by the militant group. But Israel has given no indication it will cease surveillance overflights in Lebanon — a breach of 1701 — and has indicated it wants the right to strike militarily if Hezbollah attempts to approach its border. That would enable the tens of thousands of Israelis who have left northern communities to feel safe enough to return home, a key objective of Israel’s escalation of military activities. About 1.2 million people in Lebanon are also displaced. “The situation has to be that Hezbollah will lose the ability to threaten Israel, that Israel will cease fearing to respond,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a weekend interview with the country’s Channel 14 TV. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said that while there is no alternative to resolution 1701, it may be possible to agree to “new understandings that could govern” how it is implemented. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are designated terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries.
Israel’s security cabinet convened Sunday to discuss its retaliation against Iran for a missile attack almost three weeks ago, though the government made no announcement of what action it might take. The meeting ended with a statement that spoke only of a prospective deal to free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. “Among the goals of this war, at the highest levels, is the desire to leverage it for maximum success in returning the hostages,” Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of the security cabinet, told Israel’s Army Radio. About 100 hostages are believed to be still in captivity in Gaza, a key sticking point to ending the war, although a number are assumed dead. Israeli forces have appeared to overrun Hamas at various points in the conflict, but have returned to the north of the territory in recent weeks to carry out more attacks. Israel’s military killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week, prompting the US and others to renew calls for a cease-fire after months of deadlock. Exploring ways to secure a breakthrough is likely to be high on Blinken’s agenda during his latest visit.
The conflict in Gaza began in October last year when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250. More than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the yearlong war, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the territory.
--With assistance from Ethan Bronner and Omar Tamo.

Israeli strikes destroy branches of Hezbollah finance armScroll back up to restore default view.
STORY: :: Israeli strikes destroy branches of Hezbollah's finance arm Al-Qard al-Hassan
Sky News/October 21, 2024
:: Zahrani, Lebanon
:: Bekaa valley, Lebanon
An Israeli military spokesperson said earlier in a statement posted on social media platform X that it "will begin attacking infrastructure belonging to the Hezbollah Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association - get away from it immediately." Al-Qard al-Hassan - which the U.S. has said is used by Iran-backed Hezbollah to manage its finances - has more than 30 branches across Lebanon including 15 in densely populated parts of central Beirut and its suburbs. There was no immediate statement from the organization, Hezbollah or the Lebanese government. Hundreds of families fled homes near the targeted locations ahead of the strikes, though no casualties were immediately reported.

Envoy Hochstein says US working with Lebanon and Israel to end conflict for good
Reuters/October 21, 2024
U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein said on Monday in Beirut that the United States was working on a formula to end the conflict between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah for good, and that merely committing to a previous U.N. resolution would not be enough. U.N. resolution 1701, which ended the last round of conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in 2006, calls for southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state. The Iranian-backed Shi'ite movement did not end its presence, however. Continued cross-border tensions culminated in Hezbollah missile attacks on northern Israel in support of the Palestinian militant group Hamas after it staged a bloody killing spree in Israel from Gaza just over a year ago. Israel began a large-scale onslaught on Hezbollah last month. Hochstein, visiting Lebanon for the second time in two months, was holding talks with Lebanese officials in a new U.S. mediation push to bring peace to the Middle East after Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week. "Both sides simply committing to (U.N. resolution) 1701 is not enough," Hochstein told a press conference. While the resolution remained as a basis for ending the conflict, additional measures were needed to ensure it was implemented "fairly, accurately and transparently". "We are working with government of Lebanon, the state of Lebanon, as well as the government of Israel to get to a formula that brings an end to this conflict once and for all," he said. Israel's assault on Hezbollah has raised fears of a wider regional conflict between Israel and Hezbollah's patron, Iran. After what he called a "very constructive" meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah who has been engaging in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, Hochstein said: "The United States wants to end this conflict absolutely as soon as possible. That is what President Biden wants, that is what we all are working towards."

Israel busts spy ring acting for Iran, security services say
Jonathan Saul/Reuters/October 21, 2024
Israel's security services have broken up a spy ring that was gathering information on behalf of Iranian intelligence in the latest attempt by Tehran to recruit Israelis for espionage, the Shin Bet and police said on Monday. Seven Israelis from Israel's north, including the port city of Haifa, were arrested after an investigation found they had gathered intelligence on Israeli military bases and energy and port infrastructure, a joint Shin Bet and police statement said. Israeli police said the security breach was among the most serious ever seen by Israel. "The assessment is that the activity of the members of the ring has caused security damage to the security of the state," a senior source with the Shin Bet security service said. Iran's foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment. The suspects, who included two minors, had been tasked by two agents from Iran's intelligence service to carry out hundreds of information gathering tasks on military bases across the country, the Israeli statement said. The targets included a power plant in the northern town of Hadera, military bases with an emphasis on the air force and navy, as well as Israel's Iron Dome air defence batteries and ports, the statement said. The suspects worked in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars, part of which was processed using cryptocurrency. "As part of the investigation, many materials seized were collected by the members of the ring and handed over to the Iranian agents," the senior Shin Bet source said.
The suspects acted out of greed for money "and hurt the state of Israel and its citizens," the police said. An indictment is expected to be served in coming days by the Israeli prosecutor's office. In September, Israel's security services arrested an Israeli citizen on suspicion of involvement in an Iranian-backed assassination plot against prominent people including the prime minister. Israel has a long history of intelligence operations in Iran, allegedly including the assassination in July of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in a Tehran state guesthouse. Israel has made no claim of responsibility for that killing.

Lebanon surveys damage after Israeli air strike on Hezbollah-linked bank
Darryl Coote/United Press International/October 21, 2024
Israeli fighter jets struck dozens of targets in Beirut and other areas of southern Lebanon overnight, including branches of a bank accused of holding funds used by Hezbollah. The military's Arabic spokesman, Avichay Adraee, had earlier in the night issued several evacuation orders for buildings throughout southern Lebanon he said were in the vicinity of facilities belonging to the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association Bank. "Get away from it immediately," he said in a video statement. Jeanine Hennis, the United Nations' special coordinator for Lebanon, said that after the IDF issued its evacuations, said there was "widespread panic" in Beirut. "A brief window to escape to safety. Intense blasts reverberate across the night sky. With each day, Lebanon suffers more. But even amid the escalating violence, solutions remain available. If only opportunities would be seized," she said. An overhead view shows the damage after an Israeli attack in Baalbek in southern Lebanon on Monday. Six women and children from the same family were killed and eight others injured in an Israeli drone attack on the Nabi Anam neighborhood in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon, according to Lebanese media reports on Monday.
Early Monday, the Israel Defense Forces announced it had struck dozens of Hezbollah facilities and sites it accused the Iran-proxy militia of using to finance its war against Israel. Israel Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Monday morning said 15 buildings in the Lebanese capital of Beirut were struck as the IDF carried out a wide-scale attack targeting "Hezbollah's financial infrastructure. "Beirut in flames," he said in a statement. "Hezbollah has paid and will continue to pay a heavy price for its attacks on northern Israel and its rocket fire." Israel accused Hezbollah of using the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association Bank to store funds it uses to purchase weapons and make payments to Hezbollah operatives. "The Hezbollah terrorist organization stores billions of dollars in the association's branches, including money that was directly held under the name of the terrorist organization," the IDF said in a statement. "These strikes are part of the IDF's ongoing efforts to degrade Hezbollah's terror infrastructure, its military capabilities and ability to rebuild." The IDF said its strikes overnight were conducted not only in Beirut but throughout southern Lebanon and deeper into the country. Israel and Hezbollah have been trading attacks over the Israel-Lebanese border since the start of Israel's war against Hamas, another Iran-proxy militia, in Gaza, which began Oct. 7, 2023. The cross-border strikes resulted in Israel evacuating tens of thousands of northern Israelis, and Israel has greatly intensified its assaults on Lebanon since Sept. 23. It has vowed to return the northern Israelis to their homes. According to the Lebanese ministry of health, more than 2,460 people have been killed since Oct 7, 2023, but the vast majority died since Sept. 23.

A letter To President Joseph R. Biden From Us Congressmen, Darrell Issa & Darin LaHood
cc/ The Honorable Anthony Blinken
Congress of the United States
Washington, DC 20515
October 18, 2024
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20500
https://ournewlebanon.org
Dear President Biden,
As Members of Congress, we are deeply concerned about the dire political and humanitarian situation in Lebanon. Since our letters sent on June 12, 2023 and August 3, 2023 to Secretary Antony Blinken regarding Lebanon's continued political crisis and inability to elect a president, the security and governmental situation in Lebanon has changed dramatically for the worse. Now, with the future of Lebanon being determined as we write, it can no longer afford an inability to move forward with much needed economic and political reforms to combat the malign influence of non-state actors, rampant corruption, and economic collapse without a president. That is why vigorous and creative U.S. leadership is urgently needed. We urge you to opt against a distant role and take a direct and robust approach toward engagement regarding the current presidential paralysis in Lebanon.
Since October 7, 2023, we have watched Israel fight against Iranian terror proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, including increasingly significant engagement on the southern border of Lebanon. Hezbollah is today dramatically weakened through the targeting of Hezbollah militants. and leadership. As Hezbollah's grip on Lebanon weakens, and it continues to lose leaders, foot soldiers, infrastructure, financing, and influence, we believe the United States should move forward with direct pressure of Speaker Nabih Berri, Lebanon's Parliament, and other political leaders to act quickly and hold immediate elections for President. Any continued delay by the Speaker of the Parliament - or others - to obstruct the constitution and hold an open and fair parliamentary session to elect a president is unacceptable.
We believe that electing a President is not ancillary to the current conflict but of central importance to the future of Lebanon. Without a president, and fully operational government, the Lebanese people are denied a national voice and lack a realistic leadership structure to negotiate efforts towards peace on the southern border. This situation has clearly benefited Hezbollah and its terror masters in Tehran that call the shots from the shadows and continue to harm the Lebanese people.
We also underscore the necessity of a stronger approach from your Administration. The United States must throw its diplomatic weight behind advancing this reform, including through the Quint, and economically by imposing meaningful sanctions. The U.S. should also be prepared to use all the tools we have to review and freeze the assets - including dollar- denominated and other assets within the United States of those who continue to block the electoral process.
Over the last 20 months, Speaker Nabih Berri, has specifically obstructed the electoral process and is clearly not acting in the best interest of Lebanon and its people. He continues to be a main barrier to the opening of Parliament and this and any intentional prevention of a timely presidential election must be viewed for what it is exceedingly harmful to Lebanon's citizens. and potential future recovery.
Ongoing U.S. support for the people of Lebanon through humanitarian assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) programs, and support for the Lebanese Armed Forces remain critical to ensuring a stable, prosperous, and independent Lebanon in the future. While the current situation in Lebanon is challenging, there is also hope and opportunity for the future of Lebanon without the malign influence of Hezbollah.
Given the long-term investment and relationship between the U.S. and Lebanon, we hope to see the pressure we believe is now required move the Parliament to elect a president who will be best for the people of Lebanon and work toward a peaceful future based upon the foundation of United Nations Resolution 1701 and other international agreements. The political elites cannot continue to serve special interests at a time of great need to the Lebanese people. Given the economic, humanitarian, and national security interests at stake, we request your urgent attention to this matter.
Sincerely,
Darin LaHood
Member of Congress
Darrell Issa
Member of Congress
2201 C Street NW Washington, D.C. 20520
The Honorable Janet Yellen
Secretary of the Treasury
Department of the Treasury
1500 Pennsylvania Ave NW Washington, D.C. 20220

We were completely at Hezbollah's mercy,' former UN peacekeeper says
DANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARD/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
UNIFIL forces were heavily restricted by Hezbollah, and little was done when they reported violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
A former United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) soldier, under the alias Michael, testified that UNIFIL was “totally subject to Hezbollah” when he worked in Lebanon 10 years ago in an interview with Danish news site B.T. on Sunday. UNSTO, founded in 1948, is the first peacekeeping mission the United Nations ever created; with the mission of "monitor[ing] ceasefires, supervise[ing] armistice agreements, prevent[ing] isolated incidents from escalating and assist[ing] other UN peacekeeping operations in the region to fulfil their respective mandates.
The soldier had been tasked with observing and reporting violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, which called for southern Lebanon to be without Hezbollah.
Despite the organization’s mission, Michael reported, "We were totally subject to Hezbollah. We clearly had limited freedom of movement. For example, we never operated after dark for fear of Hezbollah. So they had free time in the evening and night hours.” Michael also reported that UNIFIL and UNTSO workers had their access to cities in southern Lebanon restricted by Hezbollah, who would stop them when they tried to enter certain areas. "They simply blocked the road. They were not visibly armed but aggressive, and it was quite clear that they were members of Hezbollah - we knew very well who decided things, especially in the Shiite cities,” said Michael. “They didn't want us to see what they were doing.”
Despite their obligations, Michael testified that workers would simply observe from a distance when suspicious persons photographed the Israeli border. "When we patrolled the Blue Line, we often saw 'civilians' very close to the Israeli military installations taking pictures,” he said. ”When that happened, we withdrew and observed from a distance – we were simply instructed to do so.” Michael added that his ability to report what was happening to the security council was also limited, as Hezbollah terrorists would confiscate his devices if he attempted to collect evidence.
Some outsourced workers for UNIFIL and UNTSO were also vocally supportive of Hezbollah, Michael recalled. “We had a number of interpreters who were indoctrinated into Hezbollah. I ended up throwing one of them out of my car once while he was praising Hassan Nasrallah. I simply didn't want to listen to it,' Michael claimed.
In spite of the barriers created by Hezbollah, Michael claimed that when reports were made about violations, nothing was done.
"We reported daily violations of resolution 1701 to our superiors, including in particular restrictions on our freedom of movement, and we were instructed to report all violations regardless of number. But nothing ever happened,' he said. "We did not hear back from them, and nothing was initiated. It was wildly frustrating, and it only confirmed to me what I had experienced in other countries I was posted to: The UN is incompetent.”Despite the aforementioned criticisms, Michael maintained that the on-the-ground workers had good intentions in Lebanon - “But of course, there were also some who were fervently anti-Israel. I especially remember one of them from Ireland.”
Now 10 years later, Michael said he couldn’t imagine how deeply embedded and developed Hezbollah’s infrastructure has become.
"We didn't hear or see any digging or tunnel construction when I was there - I would never hide that,” he testified. “On the other hand, several civilian houses and probably also a 'chicken farm' appeared close to the Blue Line while I was there, which, of course, we could not/were not allowed to inspect.”
Only two weeks ago, the IDF located a tunnel that would have allowed Hezbollah terrorists to infiltrate into northern Israel.
“I remember, on the other hand, that the Israelis had a really good handle on where Hezbollah was. We often visited the IDF on the Israeli side of the border to get their presentation of the situation. And they could pinpoint exactly where they had spotted Hezbollah on the other side of the border.”
Combatting Hezbollah's threat
Michael’s testimony comes weeks after Israel began a land operation in Lebanon, seeking to remove Hezbollah’s ongoing threat in southern Lebanon.
On October 8, only a day after Hamas’s massacre in southern Israel, the Lebanon-based terror group began firing on northern Israel - forcing tens of thousands of residents to evacuate. A number of civilians and soldiers have been killed in the attacks.
UNIFIL refuses to move
Since Israel began its land operation in Lebanon, several communities have been evacuated to ensure minimal civilian risk as Israel targets Hezbollah. Despite the evacuation warnings, UNIFIL has repeatedly refused to move its workers - instead vocally criticizing Israel when UNIFIL infrastructure and personnel get caught up in the military actions.
UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti, in an interview with KAN on Wednesday, claimed the organization would not evacuate “at the request of the Israeli authorities, but in accordance with the request of the Security Council and the international community.”
"It is important to maintain the ability to monitor the area so that it is possible to report to New York and the international community," he further told KAN. "And it is important for both sides to have an impartial and unbiased force that can do this. Additionally, it's important these days to provide humanitarian aid to thousands of people who are still stuck in villages in the south of the country."
The United Nations Office at Geneva complained on Monday morning that Israeli forces in Lebanon had “deliberately” targeted a UNIFIL watchtower and fence.
“Yet again, we remind the IDF and all actors of their obligations to ensure the safety and security of UN personnel and property and to respect the inviolability of UN premises at all times,” UNIFIL stated.
Michael’s interview came in tandem with an Israel Hayom report that Hezbollah terrorists captured by the IDF testified that Hezbollah paid money to UNIFIL personnel to use their bases for operations - a claim UNIFIL denied to the Jerusalem Post.
JERUSALEM POST STAFF contributed to this report.

Crippling their wallets: IDF strikes Hezbollah finance infrastructure in Beirut
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
"In the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah's terrorism using civilian institutions, associations, and charities as cover for their operations."
The IAF conducted a series of overnight targeted, intelligence-based strikes against dozens of facilities and sites used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to finance its terrorist activities against the State of Israel, the Military announced on Monday. The strikes were conducted in the areas of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and deep within Lebanese territory.
These funds, which Hezbollah used for terror activities, were stored by the Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, which directly funds Hezbollah's terror activities, including the purchase weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah's military wing. The Hezbollah terrorist organization stores billions of dollars in the association's branches, including money that was directly held under the name of the terrorist organization.
Prior to the strike, numerous steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including advance warnings issued via different platforms to the civilian population in the area.
These strikes are part of the IDF's ongoing efforts to degrade Hezbollah's terror infrastructure, its military capabilities, and its ability to rebuild. The IDF announced its intention to strike the targets, saying itwas poised Sunday night to strike at many targets in Beirut and other places that belong to the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah’s financial infrastructure, army spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters. “We will issue an advance evacuation warning to residents of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon to evacuate locations being used to finance Hezbollah's terror activities.
“I emphasize here—anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately,” Hagari stressed. “In the coming days, we will reveal how Iran finances Hezbollah's terrorist activities through the use of civil institutions, associations, and non-profits as a cover for terrorist operations.
“We will attack them during the night and update them on the results of the attack in the coming day,” he said. “We will strike several targets in the coming hours and additional targets throughout the night. “In the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah's terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism,” Hagar said.
He spoke one day after Israel claimed that Hezbollah had tried to assassinate Netanyahu by launching a drone toward his Caesarea home. Hagari marks the death of Col. Ehsan Daxa
Haragi began his remarks by addressing the death of the Commander of IDF's 401st "Iron Tracks" Brigade, Col. Ehsan Daxa, whose death was announced shortly before he spoke.
"He was an outstanding warrior," Haragi emphasized. "He fell when he was leading his troops."
Additionally, Hagari reiterated that the commanders of the 401st Brigade would continue to fight and lead further operations in Gaza.
"Col. Meir Biderman, who has served as Deputy Commander of the 162nd Division, will assume Ehsan's position," Hagari said.
A post-Sinwar Middle East
On Sunday night the security cabinet met to discuss Israel’s pending retaliatory strike against Iran and possibilities for a renewed hostage deal in the aftermath of the IDF’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar last week. In advance of the meeting, Defense Yoav Gallant held consultations with security officials, including Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon about possibilities for a new hostage deal.
Shin Bet head Ronen Bar was in Egypt on Sunday to meet with newly appointed Egyptian Intelligence Chief Hassan Mahmoud Rashad. Both Qatar and Egypt have been the main negotiators for a deal with the help of the United States.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to travel to the Middle East this week, where he is expected to make a stop in Israel to discuss options for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal in the aftermath of Sinwar’s death. Sources close to the talks have said however that little can happen with respect to a deal until after Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran. Progress can only occur, they said, as long as Hamas is banking on a regional war.
Iran has warned that it will respond to any Israeli retaliatory strike. The United States has sent an anti-ballistic missile system to Israel and is prepared to help defend the Jewish state against any further direct Iranian attacks. Iran has twice attacked Israel, once in April and once at the start of October.
US President Joe Biden over the weekend has said he believes a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel is possible but that a Gaza deal would be harder to achieve.
Still, he has told Israel that now is the time to end the war in Gaza and has asked that it constrain its activity in Beirut. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in public statements in the last days has stood firm on the need to destroy Hamas, free the remaining 101 hostages in Gaza, and create a new security reality in the north that would allow the over 60,000 evacuated residents to return home.
In a visit to the northern border on Sunday Gallant said, “Not only are we defeating the enemy [Hezbollah], but we are destroying them by dismantling their tunnels, weapon storages, and their attack infrastructure. The result is clear – in the places that Hezbollah prepared to use as launchpads for raids into [Israeli] communities, there are now IDF troops conducting operations.”
“Our goal is to completely ‘clean’ the area [of Hezbollah infrastructure] so that Israel’s northern communities may return to their homes and rebuild their lives. I believe that this is very significant – the IDF is conducting operations and we still have missions to complete.”We have Hezbollah prisoners who are sharing information. They have informed us of the great fear felt [among Hezbollah terrorists]. Hezbollah is collapsing,” Gallant said.
Netanyahu on Saturday night spoke with former US president Donald Trump, the prime minister's office said on Sunday. "Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated what he has also said publicly: Israel takes into account the issues the US administration raises, but in the end, will make its decisions based on its national interests," it said. Trump, speaking later to reporters in Philadelphia, said he had had "a very nice call" with Netanyahu on Saturday.
The Israeli leader had asked his opinion about what to do with Iran, he said. Israel is pondering its military reaction to recent Iranian missile strikes.
"He was asking what I thought. And I just said you do what you have to do," Trump said.
*Reuters and Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.

Lebanon Is at a Crossroad: Either Peace or an Alternative Arena
Sam Menassa/Mon, October 21, 2024
It has been a month since Israel launched its war against Lebanon and Hezbollah in response to the latter's "support and harassment" in backing Hamas in Gaza since October 8, 2023. Following the lethal blows dealt to the party, most notably the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and a substantial number of its leaders and cadres, Lebanon faces a new turning point. The most prominent indication of this new phase is that Iran has taken direct control of Hezbollah and is overseeing operations alongside third-tier officials of the party.
Iran did not begin intervening in Lebanon recently. However, the overt nature of its intervention this time around has completely effaced the plausible deniability it had enjoyed up to this point. Today, purely Iranian decisions shape the Lebanese policy, which has undermined the role of parliament Speaker Berri and other Hezbollah allies, as well as what remains of the party’s previous leadership.
The new version of Iranian intervention is evident from deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s rejection of any compromise before a ceasefire. His stance means that Hezbollah will not accept any proposal for a solution, whichever party makes it. It undermines the government's efforts, the work of Berri, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and the summit of Lebanon’s religious leaders in Bkirki.
Directly overseeing Hezbollah operations reflects the duality of Iranian policy and its domestic and international tracks. Domestically, Iran aims to appease regime hardliners, who are calling for confrontation and want to see the war continue on its various fronts. Internationally, Iran continues to seek de-escalation and pursue indirect negotiations with the US, positioning itself as a mediator in Lebanon by leveraging its influence on allies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to strengthen its negotiating position and safeguard its interventionist policies in the region.
Amid the escalation of brutal killings, destruction, and the expansion of the war to areas that had previously been considered safe, along with the aggravating economic, social, and security risks after the number of displaced people reached over a million scattered across different Lebanese regions, the opposition forces that stand against the party's project and the war it initiated remain fragmented, disorganized, and divided.
They continue to quarrel over details and marginal issues, squandering opportunities to rebuild the state, restore sovereignty, and unite the Lebanese people. These forces remain preoccupied with narrow internal disputes and personal and partisan interests, even as Lebanon faces threats to existence as a political entity that make these maneuvers - the traditionally sly Lebanese approach to managing political affairs - untenable.
After these developments that have turned Lebanon into an alternative battleground for Iran and Israel, with Lebanese officials and citizens alike becoming mere spectators of their demise, what comes next?
What is preventing the political parties opposed to Iran’s project, resistance, and the unity of arenas from agreeing on foundational principles on how to restore the state, irrespective of their differences and disagreements? What is stopping them from forming a national salvation front aimed at rescuing the country that includes every party seeking to build back the state, so that it can make visits to capitals in the Arab region and across the world, especially those of countries that are eager to help Lebanon find a way out of this crisis?
This national salvation front could transcend contentions and divergences, presenting an agenda underpinned by five fundamental principles regarding a prospective settlement:
- Taking back the state, its sovereignty, decision-making, and extending its authority across the countries, whereby only legitimate bodies and apparatuses have the right to bear arms.
- Reviving the 1949 Armistice Agreement, and the full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.
- Committing to the full implementation of the constitution and the 1989 Taif Accord.
- Affirming Lebanon's Arab role and its fraternal relations with Arab states, without implying hostility towards other regional countries.
- Emphasizing the role of capable Lebanese citizens in reviving Lebanon's economy, centering commerce, banking, tourism, healthcare, and education.
None of these principles are likely to be a matter of disagreement among the Lebanese genuinely seeking to take Lebanon back and prevent its demise. These principles could lay the foundation for rebuilding the state and allow, through a democratic and constitutional framework, for amendments, changes, and reforms that align with the aspirations of the Lebanese for the future, which are similar to those of other Arab countries in the region.
After Lebanon had been torn between various axes for over fifty years, it has become evident that siding with one axis over another creates civil wars, armed conflicts, and occupation by Palestinians, Syrians, Israelis, and Iranians. Lebanon returning to the embrace of the Arabs does mean shifting its alignment from one axis to another, but reinstating the natural order of things. It means joining the ranks of the stable Arab countries that have not been torn apart by inter-Arab and civil wars, and are looking to the future, modernity, peace, and prosperity.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 20-21/2024
Israeli Druze Colonel Killed During Jabaliya Operation
FDD/October 21 2024
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Col. Ehsan Daksa, a member of Israel’s Druze minority, was killed by Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip on October 20. An announcement from the IDF confirmed that Daksa was the highest-ranking officer killed so far during Israel’s war against Hamas in the enclave.
As commander of the 401st Armored Brigade, Col. Daksa was leading a two-week-old operation in Jabaliya to dismantle Hamas strongholds and eliminate new recruits. While dismounted with seven other tank personnel, an IED exploded in their vicinity, fatally wounding the 41-year-old Daksa.
A decorated veteran of the 2006 Lebanon war, Daksa was the sixth IDF colonel killed in combat against Hamas. Another Druze officer, Lt.-Col. Salman Habaka of the Armored Corps’ 53rd battalion, was also killed in action in the Gaza Strip last November.
Israel Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant mourned Daksa’s passing, saying that “the State of Israel lost a bold and courageous commander, a leader who dedicated his life and work to the security of our nation. Ehsan’s character, combined with his love for our homeland, his creativity and fearless sense of initiative, made him a role model and source of pride for his troops and commanders.”
Expert Analysis
“The Druze community, though only 2 percent of Israel’s population, has long made outsized contributions to the country’s defense, in both heroism and sacrifice. They are a testament to the extraordinary pluralism of the Jewish state. Ehsan Daksa was not only a great officer but also a good friend and a dedicated patriot. He lived by the Israeli officer ethos of ‘after me’ — leading from the front. His memory will be a blessing.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“The Druze community in Israel is filled with patriots and warriors. This is a tremendous loss for the state, the IDF and Israeli society writ large.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor

Exclusive-Top UN officials to Netanyahu: Help us ease civilian suffering
Michelle Nichols/NEW YORK (Reuters)/October 21, 2024
The heads of the United Nations World Food Programme and U.N. children's agency UNICEF have privately appealed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for help "alleviating the suffering of countless civilians" in the Gaza Strip, West Bank and Lebanon, according to a letter seen by Reuters on Monday. "Effective and meaningful humanitarian action is possible with your political will and commitment," wrote UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell and WFP Executive Director Cindy McCain in the previously unreported letter dated Oct. 11. Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the letter. The amount of aid entering Gaza has plummeted to its lowest level all year, according to U.N. data. In addition, a global hunger monitor has warned of a looming famine, and the U.N. has accused Israel of denying and impeding dozens of attempts this month to deliver aid, particularly to Gaza's north. Israel began a wide military offensive in northern Gaza earlier this month. The United States said last week it was watching to ensure that its ally's actions on the ground show it does not have a "policy of starvation" in the north. Israel has said there is not a lack of aid in Gaza and accused Hamas of hijacking the humanitarian assistance. Hamas has repeatedly denied Israeli allegations that it was stealing aid and says Israel is to blame for shortages. "We call on your support, as Prime Minister, to ensure that the government of Israel upholds its obligations and commitments to enable effective emergency relief operations, and to protect the safety and security of our staff and the civilians they serve," Russell and McCain wrote. They sent their letter just after the first anniversary of the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas. Those attacks triggered Israel's retaliation in the besieged Gaza enclave, which has been plunged into what U.N. officials describe as a humanitarian catastrophe. The U.N. appeal also came two days before the United States told Israel it must take steps within 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or face potential restrictions on U.S. military aid. Russell and McCain - both Americans who were put forward for their top U.N. jobs by U.S. President Joe Biden - listed six areas where they want "clear and concrete commitments" from Netanyahu. They asked Netanyahu to appoint a "high-level focal point" for them to address the issues they raised in the letter.
'RULES OF ENGAGEMENT'
They called on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to protect civilians and critical civilian services. They also wrote that the U.N. and aid groups "need unequivocal security assurances to ensure a safe operating environment," specifically streamlined operating procedures with the Israeli military (IDF). "The rules of engagement and their implementation in practice, in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and Lebanon, must reflect the IDF's obligation and commitment to respect, protect, and facilitate humanitarian action," said Russell, a former senior aide to Biden, and McCain, Biden's former ambassador to the U.N. agencies for food and agriculture in Rome. They urgently appealed for an effective humanitarian notification system that the Israeli military "acknowledges and supports," citing the success of using area-specific pauses in fighting to allow for the polio vaccination of children in Gaza.
"We request this be applied consistently to facilitate humanitarian action at scale," Russell and McCain wrote. The United Nations needs action to combat the breakdown of law and order in Gaza, they said, asking for all access points to be opened, expanded operating hours, approval of more routes within Gaza and urgent road repairs. The U.N. has repeatedly complained of obstacles to getting aid into Gaza and distributing it, blaming impediments on Israel and lawlessness. Health authorities in Gaza say more than 42,000 people have been killed and almost the entire population of 2.3 million displaced. At least 312 aid workers, including 230 U.N. staff, have been killed in Gaza, according to U.N. figures. Commercial goods must start flowing again, wrote McCain and Russell, because "humanitarian assistance alone cannot sustain two million people." Israel has stopped processing requests from traders to import food to Gaza, Reuters reported last week. Their final request was for all parties work toward securing a ceasefire across Israel, the Gaza Strip, and Lebanon, including the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza for the past year. The U.N. is also now dealing with a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, where Israel has stepped its fight against Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants, conducting airstrikes in Beirut and launching a ground operation in Lebanon's south on Oct. 1.

White House: Biden 'deeply concerned' about release of documents on Israel's possible attack plans
Aamer Madhani And David Klepper/The Associated Press/October 21, 2024
President Joe Biden is “deeply concerned” about the release of classified documents on Israel's preparation for a potential retaliatory attack on Iran, according to a White House spokesman. U.S. officials confirmed on Saturday that the administration is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents that assess Israel’s plans to attack Iran. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that the administration was still not certain if the classified information that became publicly disclosed was leaked or hacked. Kirby added that administration officials don’t have any indication at this point of "additional documents like this finding their way into the public domain.” He added the Pentagon is investing the matter. “We’re deeply concerned and the president remains deeply concerned about any leakage of classified information into the public domain. That is not supposed to happen and it’s unacceptable when it does,” Kirby said. The documents are attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, and note that Israel was still moving military assets in place to conduct a military strike in response to Iran’s blistering ballistic missile attack on Oct. 1. They were sharable within the “Five Eyes,” an intelligence alliance comprised of the U.S., Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Marked top secret, the documents first appeared online Friday on the Telegram messaging app and quickly spread among Telegram channels popular with Iranians.
Analysts at the SITE Intelligence Group tracked the release of the documents to a Telegram channel popular with Iran-backed militias. The channel contained posts from an anonymous user with a long history of posting other supposedly top-secret content who said they had access to the documents. The user also wrote that they had sold some of the material and also provided it to the Iranian military.
The Telegram channel identifies itself as being based in Tehran, Iran’s capital. It previously published memes featuring Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and material in support of Tehran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Middle East militant groups armed by the Islamic Republic. One of the two documents resembled the style of other material from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency leaked by Jack Teixeira, an Air National Guardsman who pleaded guilty in March to leaking highly classified military documents about Russia’s war on Ukraine and other national security secrets. The release comes at a pivotal time in the Middle East, as Israel considers its response to Iran's attack. The U.S. has urged Israel to take advantage of its elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and press for a cease-fire in Gaza, and has likewise urgently cautioned Israel not to further expand military operations in the north in Lebanon and risk a wider regional war. However, Israel’s leadership has repeatedly stressed it will not let Iran’s missile attack go unanswered. The investigation into the leak may take some time as authorities look for digital or physical clues that could reveal how the information got out, and what implications it may have for information management and intelligence sharing with U.S. allies, according to Gavin Wilde, a senior fellow in the Technology and International Affairs Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“I imagine they'll eventually get to the bottom of it,” said Wilde, who formerly worked on the National Security Council. “The intelligence community has gotten a lot better at digital chain of custody – who has seen a particular document, how many times it's been shared, and with whom.”
The nation's spy agencies have worked to bolster cybersecurity following recent leaks involving Teixeira or former NSA contractor Reality Winner. Accounting for human behavior, however, can be a harder challenge, according to Shawnee Delaney, a former officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency who is now CEO of the Vaillance Group, a private threat analysis firm. “Cybersecurity isn’t just a technological issue," Delaney told The Associated Press. “It’s a human one and humans are wholly unpredictable.”Spokespeople for the Pentagon and the National Security Agency said officials were aware of the incident but had no further comment.
Aamer Madhani And David Klepper, The Associated Press

Iran complains to UN nuclear watchdog about Israeli threats to its atomic sites, spokesman says
Reuters/Mon, October 21, 2024
Iran has written to the U.N. nuclear watchdog to complain about Israeli threats to strike its atomic energy sites, its foreign ministry spokesman said at a weekly news conference on Monday. Israel has vowed to attack Iran in retaliation for a volley of Iranian missiles on Oct. 1, stirring widespread speculation that Iranian nuclear sites could be among the targets. "Threats to attack nuclear sites are against U.N. resolutions.... and are condemned ... We have sent a letter about it to ... the U.N. nuclear watchdog," ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told the televised news conference. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel would listen to key ally the United States regarding a response to Iran's missile attack but would decide its actions according to its own national interest. His statement was attached to a Washington Post article which said Netanyahu had told President Joe Biden's administration that Israel would strike Iranian military targets, not nuclear or oil sites. Baghaei, responding to a question about the possibility of Iran changing its official nuclear doctrine, said "weapons of mass destruction have no place in our policy". Tehran would decide on how and when to respond to any Israeli attack. Iran has repeatedly denied Western accusations that it has covertly sought to develop nuclear bombs in violation of its commitment to the global Non-Proliferation Treaty. Separately, Baghaei said Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would travel to Bahrain and Kuwait on Monday as part of Iranian efforts to reduce regional tensions. Iran fired scores of missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes on its allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip - the second Iranian missile attack on Israel this year. Israel responded to the first missile volley in April with an airstrike on an air defence site in central Iran.

‘We don’t want aid. We want dignity.’ Air-dropped aid kills 3-year-old Palestinian boy in southern Gaza, family says
Abeer Salman, Mohammad Al Sawalhi, Ibrahim Dahman, Niamh Kennedy and Sana Noor Haq/CNN/October 21, 2024
A 3-year-old Palestinian boy was killed by air-dropped aid in the southern city of Khan Younis on Saturday, according to his relatives, as the humanitarian crisis spawned by the Israeli offensive compounds severe hunger across the Gaza Strip. The family was eating breakfast when pallets dropped from airplanes and careened towards the displacement area, Sami Ayyad, the grandfather of the boy, told CNN. Several family members attempted to take cover inside their improvised tents – but the falling parcel killed Sami instantly, Ayyad recalled. Sami’s aunt and cousin were also wounded on their foot and face, respectively, Ayyad added. “I was sitting here with the boy, and the moment I left him … the package fell on him,” Ayyad said. “There was only a second between me and him. I carried him and started running. “We have no hospitals. I ran like crazy, but the boy died instantly. I couldn’t save him. Blood started coming out of his nose and mouth,” he added. CNN footage from the aftermath shows blood stains on the ground, as Ayyad points to the area where he says Sami was killed. Family members can be seen congregating at the displacement camp, their eyes welling up with tears. Elsewhere, men, women and children walk barefoot among a sea of tents made of flimsy sheeting. A number of countries have air-dropped aid into Gaza, including the United States, United Kingdom, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. “We don’t want aid. We want dignity,” said Ayyad. “Enough with the humiliation and insult that we are receiving from the Arabs, not just the Israelis. Those who have no mercy on us — look at our children, our women, our elderly.”Sami’s uncle, Mahmoud Ayyad, told CNN: “Our lives are… humiliation, death, horror. I sleep at night not sure if I will wake up. “We are human beings, not animals to drop food (to) from the sky,” he added. The United Arab Emirates airdropped 81 food packages into Khan Younis on Saturday, according to the Israeli agency which controls the flow of aid into Gaza. More than 10,000 packages have been airdropped in recent months, Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, or COGAT, added. CNN has reached out to the UAE for comment. CNN video from the displacement camp in Khan Younis on Saturday shows crates of aid, with the UAE flag stamped on cardboard boxes. Israel’s sustained restrictions on aid entering the strip have sapped critical supplies, condemning the entire population of more than 2.2 million people to the risk of famine, according to a UN-backed report. About 1.84 million Palestinians are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, according to a report published Thursday by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, which assesses global food insecurity and malnutrition. But human rights agencies have repeatedly condemned airdrops as an inefficient way of getting aid to Palestinians in Gaza, instead urging Israeli authorities to lift controls on land crossings into the enclave. CNN has previously reported on aid drops killing people in search of food in Gaza. The Israeli military campaign in Gaza has leveled neighborhoods, erased entire families and spawned a crisis of severe hunger, displacement and disease. At least 42,603 Palestinians have been killed and another 99,795 injured since Israel launched its war in Gaza on October 7, the Ministry of Health there said on Monday. Israel launched its military offensive on October 7 after the militant group Hamas, which governs Gaza, attacked southern Israel. At least 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 others abducted, according to Israeli authorities. Sami and his loved ones had been staying in Khan Younis after they were displaced by the Israeli military campaign at least six times, according to his father, Mahmoud. “I don’t want aid. My son is gone. He was standing there telling me to look at the parachutes. He ran away when he saw it coming close to him,” he told CNN on Saturday.
“There was an airstrike on people here, and he survived,” he added. “But his fate was to die from a parachute.”
CNN’s Mostafa Salem contributed to this report.

The US can 'ill afford' another war now its rivals are teaming up so well, US general says
Tom Porter/Business Insider/October 21, 2024
Some experts believe the US military is overstretched. The US Army's outgoing top commander in the Pacific region has warned that the US can "ill afford" another war because its military is vastly overstretched. According to Defense One, Gen. Charles Flynn said that the US' authoritarian rivals — Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea — had been placing increasing pressure on American military resources. Speaking at the AUSA conference in Washington DC last week, Flynn described the technology and military alliances between the authoritarian states as a "very dangerous combination." Collaboration between these countries has stepped up. Russia has received Shahed drones from Iran, which it has used to attack Ukrainian cities. It has also received diplomatic and economic backing from China, while North Korea has sent rockets and troops. Russia's returned the favor to Iran, helping it evade sanctions and to arm Iranian proxies Hezbollah and the Houthis. In East Asia, Russia recently formed a military pact with North Korea, and has engaged in massive military drills alongside China as it menaces Taiwan with invasion. "There's a limited regional war going on in Europe," Flynn said. "There's a limited regional war going on in the Middle East. We can ill afford another limited regional war in Asia. Why? Because it will be a global problem for all of us." If war erupts between the US and China it could have devastating global economic consequences. Bloomberg Economics in January estimated that a war could cost up to $10 trillion, which is around 10% of global GDP. The Economic Observatory in March found that a broader conflict in the Middle East would spike oil prices and inflation, while if part of Ukraine is handed to Russia as part of a peace deal it would further disrupt food and oil markets.
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin stand under a stone gazebo surrounded by people in military dress and others in suits. Flynn is not the first to warn of the dangers posed by the new alliance of authoritarian powers. In January, Kathryn Levantovscaia, deputy director of the Forward Defense program at the Atlantic Council, wrote that the US military is stretched thin amid threats in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. "Pursuing regional stability in Europe and the Middle East simultaneously are critical and costly endeavors," she said. "Doing so at the current pace in light of capacity limitations could backfire and damage not only Ukraine but also NATO.
"At the same time, the United States lacks the requisite focus to take on a Chinese threat to Taiwan and to defend its Pacific position because the US military and defense industrial base are stretched thin." In October last year, Marines Lieutenant-General Stephen Sklenka, the deputy commander of all US forces in the Indo-Pacific, told the Sydney Morning Herald that the US' growing number of military commitments could distract from its ability to counter China's aggression. "So far, we haven't had any stuff taken out of this theatre. There is always the chance of what I refer to as a strategic distraction," he told the publication. The US military retained the capacity to fight two major wars simultaneously throughout the Cold War, but it shifted its stance in 2018 to be able to fight one major war while deterring a second adversary. The plan was formed in response to China's growing military might. Some critics are calling on the US to resume its "two-war" posture and say the current doctrine doesn't account for the double threat posed by China and Russia, its two most powerful adversaries. Raphael Cohen, an analyst with the RAND Corporation think tank, told BI last November that retaining the capacity to fight Russia and China at the same time would entail a huge boost in US military spending.
But the threats could be countered, he said, by strengthening the US' alliances. The problem of how to boost military spending amid global instability is a challenge governments around the world are facing. Military budgets are increasing across the world, with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in May finding that US military budget in 2024 was $886 billion, an 8% increase over two years. Levantovscaia estimated that the US needs an additional $300 billion in the annual defense budget directed toward revitalizing the US defense industrial base to help defend against global threats. "In short, the United States faces a strategic choice. Its means are insufficient to achieve its ends," she wrote."To close the gap, it must move one or the other."

Seven Israelis arrested for spying for Iran, providing info on army bases
By JACOB LAZNIK, EVE YOUNG/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
Prosecutors allege they completed some 600 missions for Iran, including gathering intelligence on sensitive military and infrastructure sites and identifying potential human targets for Iran. Seven Israelis were arrested on suspicion of espionage for Iran, Israel Police and the Shin Bet announced Monday. Prosecutors allege that the suspects completed some 600 missions for Iran, including gathering intelligence on sensitive military and infrastructure sites and identifying potential human targets for the Islamic Republic. Notable sites involved in their alleged espionage included Ramat David Airbase, Nevatim Airbase, Glilot, and the Golani Brigade base, where four soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone attack last week. The suspects "were given maps of strategic sites from their handlers, including of the Golani Brigade base," the State Attorney said. The seven suspects, Jewish Israelis of Azeri origin from Haifa and Haifa’s bayside suburbs, some of whom are relatives and one of whom is an AWOL soldier, have been in custody for around 35 days. Two are minors, according to police. Charges, expected by the end of the week, are anticipated to include assisting the enemy during wartime. Actions by the suspects "inflicted security damage on the state," according to Israeli assessments, a senior Israel Security Agency (ISA) said Monday. The "severity and scope" of the incident is "among the most serious known to Israel," Israel Police said.
Iran's continued efforts
"This investigation highlights ongoing efforts by Iranian intelligence to recruit and exploit Israeli citizens for espionage and terrorism within Israel," it added. The network of spies “conducted extensive reconnaissance missions on IDF bases nationwide, focusing on air force and navy installations, ports, Iron Dome system locations, and energy infrastructure such as the Hadera power plant,” Israel Police said. The accused are also suspected of collecting intelligence on several Israeli citizens. Some of them were apprehended by police while working to gather intelligence on an Israeli citizen who Israeli security officials anticipated Iran was planning to harm, Israel Police said. "The network members were aware that the intelligence they provided compromised national security and could potentially aid enemy missile attacks," Israel police said. According to police officials, the suspects were motivated purely by financial gain, receiving payment in various amounts depending on the risk of the operation. The group was allegedly directed by two Iranian intelligence agents, referred to as “Alkhan” and “Orkhan.” The suspects were allegedly paid hundreds of thousands of dollars, with payments routed through Russian intermediaries who traveled to Israel. Police also seized dozens of documents during the investigation. "As part of the investigation, many materials seized were collected by the members of the ring and handed over to the Iranian agents," the senior Shin Bet source said. The suspects acted out of greed for money “and to hurt the State of Israel and its citizens,” the police said.Interior Minister Moshe Arbel said that "those who spy for Iran will lose their citizenship," Ynet quoted him as saying.The arrest of the seven were part of a coordinated counterintelligence operation run by the ISA, Lahav 433 of the Israel Police, and the Information Security Department in the Military Intelligence Directorate. The State Attorney emphasized that this case joins a series of similar cases that have been revealed in past weeks, some of which have led to arrests and indictments, and others which are expected to in the near future. **Reuters contributed to this report.

Who is Samr Abu Zamer, widow of Yahya Sinwar?
Walla/October 21/2024
From devout scholar to Hamas leader's wife, her Hermès Birkin bag sparked controversy amidst Gaza's turmoil. Samr Mohammed Abu Zamer has maintained a nearly private life since her marriage to Yahya Sinwar, the former Hamas leader killed recently by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Despite her marriage to one of the region's most influential and controversial figures, Samr has remained a mysterious and intriguing figure. At 44, Samr, born in Gaza, comes from an affluent family. She earned a master's degree in religious studies from the Islamic University of Gaza, where she also taught until her marriage in 2011. Her wedding to Sinwar, 18 years her senior, came just one month after his release from Israeli prison in the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange. At the time of their marriage, Samr was 31—a relatively late age for a bride in Gaza, where the average age for women to marry is 20.
Samr, described as a devout woman, wears a niqab, covering her face and leaving only her eyes exposed. She is known for her total faith in her husband despite his violent background. Her loyalty likely stems from her upbringing in a household deeply entrenched in hostility toward Israel. Her family is part of a well-known Palestinian tribe with strong support for Hamas and the "resistance" movement. Multiple family members are reported to have joined Hamas, with some involved in the elite Nukhba unit, which carried out attacks against Israeli targets. It appears her family's background heavily influenced her choices and reinforced her commitment to her husband's cause. Samr has kept an extremely low profile in public life, with very few photos available, even on the website of the university where she studied and taught. However, recent footage released by the IDF catapulted her into the spotlight. In the video, Samr is seen fleeing into a tunnel with her family, carrying a luxury Hermès Birkin handbag worth approximately $32,000, just hours before the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Did the Birkin get its own room in the tunnel? The sight of Samr carrying such an expensive bag while escaping to a bunker drew widespread criticism online, highlighting the glaring disparity between the luxurious lifestyle of Hamas leaders' families and the economic hardships of ordinary Gazans. Social media users quickly mocked the situation. "Did the Birkin get its own room in the tunnel?" one person quipped. Another asked, "Is there a 'limited edition Gaza tunnel' version of the Birkin?" Beyond the satire, this incident has raised serious questions about the gap between Gaza’s leadership and its people, with Samr's Birkin bag becoming an unflattering symbol of this divide. With Sinwar's death in an IDF operation on October 16, 2024, Samr's future remains uncertain. It is likely that she will continue to lead a discreet life, possibly out of fear for her and her children’s safety, from both Israeli forces and internal Hamas rivals. Speculation is rife that she may escape to Qatar and perhaps write a memoir to finance the lifestyle to which she has grown accustomed. One can only hope that her choices in life will improve from this point onward.

Two killed in missile attack on car in Syrian capital, state media say
Reuters/October 21, 2024
(Reuters) -At least two people were killed and three others injured on Monday in an apparent guided missile attack on a car in the Mazzeh area of Damascus, Syrian state television said, quoting a military source.The source attributed the attack to Israel. The attack occurred near the Eastern Roundabout, close to the Golden Mazzeh Hotel, a high-end establishment in the centre of Syria's capital, state media added. An Israeli military spokesman later claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it killed the head of Hezbollah's money transfers unit. "We will continue to act against Hezbollah in Syria and everywhere else," Israel’s chief military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said in a televised statement.

Former B.C. premier Christy Clark interested in replacing Trudeau if PM steps down
CBC/October 21, 2024
As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a rebellion from his own Liberal MPs in caucus this week, former B.C. premier Christy Clark is suggesting she would be interested in replacing him, should Trudeau decide to step down. In a statement sent to Radio-Canada in French, Clark wrote that she was open to returning to public life and "would like to be part of the discussion about the future direction of the Liberal Party and the country." Clark, 58, who served as premier from 2011-17, also wrote that "Canadians are tired of politicians who think that fear mongering and divisiveness will win an election and gain power."
She added, "They also understand that polarized political views are standing in the way of the solutions we need."According to Clark, voters want leaders "who will unite our country with practical solutions to the tough challenges we face," including "the cost of living, the housing crisis, the need to strengthen our health-care system and the importance of fighting climate change.""Because our country and its future are important to me, I have never closed the door to the possibility of one day returning to political life," Clark wrote. In her statement, the former Liberal premier expressed an interest in leading the federal party but also wrote that the position "is not going to be vacant in the near future." Clark's comments come as Trudeau prepares for a heated meeting with his caucus on Wednesday. Some MPs are being asked to sign their names to what amounts to a pledge to stand together in calling for the prime minister to resign, multiple sources have told CBC News.
Outspoken against Trudeau
Over the last two years, Clark has been outspoken in calling for Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader. In March 2022, on the popular podcast Curse of Politics, she said that "Justin Trudeau is tired and complacent.""I don't think Trudeau is an asset to the Liberals, I think he's a gift to Poilievre," she said, referring to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. She added that Trudeau has exacerbated divisions between Quebec and Western Canada "for political reasons," while Canada "needs politicians who will bridge this gap."After the Liberals suffered a stunning byelection defeat in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul's in June, Clark suggested MPs begin having private conversations with Trudeau about the party's election prospects if he stays on. "I think the leader needs to be replaced," she told the Globe and Mail. "I think it's time for him to move to other, fairer pastures."
Clark's political history
Clark has been taking French lessons for several months, according to a source close to her who spoke to Radio-Canada. The former premier has already made two trips to the Cégep de Jonquière in Quebec and plans to return there in the coming months to improve her French skills, sources told Radio-Canada. Clark, left, shakes hands with Trudeau at a meeting in Vancouver on March 2, 2017. Over the last two years, Clark has been outspoken in calling for Trudeau to step down. (Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press) Clark also launched a TikTok account last month. In the most recent post on Oct. 5, she encouraged British Columbians to vote in the provincial election that officially ended on Saturday. During her six years as B.C. premier, she built a reputation as an environmentally conscious, fiscally prudent Liberal who championed the mining and oil industries.
She resigned in 2017 when her minority government was defeated by an NDP confidence motion. The New Democrats then took over the province with the support of the Green Party.
Her departure from politics left the B.C. Liberal Party in disarray. In April 2023, the party officially rebranded and became B.C. United, until it dissolved altogether on the eve of the most recent election campaign. During the 2022 Conservative leadership race, Clark endorsed former Quebec premier Jean Charest, who eventually lost to Poilievre. Clark is a regular federal politics commentator on several English-language television and radio networks, including CTV, CBC and Global. She also works as a guest speaker across Canada.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 21-22/2024
The Dynamics of a Changing Middle East
Charles Chartouni/This is Beirut/October 21/2024
The Israeli counter-offensive is going far beyond the immediate national security concerns and setting the path for a new geostrategic configuration. The progressive destruction of the geopolitical platforms of Iranian regional expansionism is the inevitable outcome of a renewed political vision and its incidence on military strategizing and policymaking in this part of the world. The decrepit regional order and its attendant security hazards are no longer a fatality that Israel should adjust to. Israel, despite its small geopolitical stature, has come to terms with the idea of regime change as an imperative for survival and a necessary prelude for more stability in the Middle East. Israel has seized upon the emblematic massacres of October 7, 2023, to re-engage the conflicts on different terms and from a different perspective than the one that has prevailed so far.
The confrontation with Iran has become inevitable, and there are no chances for regional stability unless it is contained or literally defeated at an auspicious time when the regime is losing ground to Israel’s military superiority and ability to question the existing power equation, the foundational myths of the Islamic revolution, the future power projections in the Middle East, and the gravity of the pogrom and its imprints in the collective Jewish memory. While fighting for its survival, the creative strategizing of Israel geared toward geostrategic reconfiguration and the remapping of national security coordinates. There is no more room for borderline ambiguities, toleration of military buildup, and diplomatic equivocations based on long-term management scenarios.
The delaying tactics that postponed retaliation politics have nurtured political and strategic illusions and kept the Israelis away from major counter-offensives, except for 2006 and the ongoing war of 2024. The quietist political course was due to multiple political, diplomatic, and logistical considerations that have proven detrimental in the long run since it allowed Iran to work steadily on its nuclear and integrated battlefield programs and to fuel radicalism and anti-Semitism. The massacres of October 7, 2023, left no more room for skepticism and dithering since the security hazards of procrastination and their moral consequences would be devastating. The killing of Yahya al Sinwar and Ismail Haniyah is a major achievement after the liquidation of Hassan Nasrallah and his team and a crucial step towards the dismantling of the Iranian strategy in the Middle East.
The operational abilities of the Israeli army were hobbled by the tragic issue of Israeli hostages and the dramatic plight of civilians in Gaza who were instrumentalized as human shields. The same scheme of human shields and intentional victimization featured by Hamas and Hezbollah displayed the cynicism of political and military planning and the state of moral callousness that frames the decision-making process at both ends.
The destruction of the military platforms of both movements is self-validating and a necessary stepstone to move on to more elaborate objectives that relate to strategic power equilibriums and overall political settlement.
The magnitude and the boldness of the Israeli counter-offensive testify to the outstanding capabilities of the Israeli defense forces, to the urgency of security challenges, and to the timeliness of strategic consensuses despite war tragedies and their extensive exploitation by the anti-Israeli media. Israel was forced to engage “the fire belt” extending throughout the Middle East and realize that its future security and Middle Eastern stability prompt the eradication of the Iranian politics of subversion as a sequel to Islamic radicalization and its multiple incidences on regional stability and peace prospects regionally and worldwide.
This daring political and military move is preliminary to any diplomatic course; there are no chances for working negotiations without redressing the power imbalances and undermining Islamic radicalism. The containment of extremes in both camps is unlikely to happen unless power equilibriums are reset. Hamas should be defeated for the sake of a moderate and overhauled Palestinian leadership; Lebanon’s political liberalism and institutional politics conditional rehabilitation are correlated to the annihilation of Hezbollah; Syria’s frozen conflicts and political impasses and Yemen’s civil war depend on steering away from Iranian and Russian power politics and rebuilding their independent inner dynamics. In addition, Iran’s growing instability feeds Turkey’s anxieties and adds to its proliferating vulnerabilities. The regional tectonics are profoundly shaking, and their commotions extend from Pakistan to Turkey.
The scope of this war has broadened far beyond the immediate security concerns induced by the October 7, 2023, attacks and cannot be understood unless it dovetails with the new political vision and its underlying momentum. The Israeli counter-offensive overlaps with the Iranian integrated war platforms predicate and engages Iran on every single front extending between Yemen and the Near East. In addition, direct confrontation instruments a panoply of war strategies and coordinates with the domestic enemies, the downfall of the totalitarian dystopia and the organization of a soft transition that parries the hazards of violent regime change. The purview of this new strategy aims to secure stability, contain the unbridled effects of revolutionary transformations, co-opt the mechanisms of democratic transition and their consensual nature, and rehabilitate the endogenous nature of political change and its levers. In the meantime, the war is raging; Gaza, Lebanon, and the Middle East are in the midst of open warfare with its toll of human casualties, massive destructions, and uncertainties.

Coptic Christian Man Hacked to Pieces and Dumped in Cairo Canal
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/October 21/2024
A Coptic Christian man was recently murdered, hacked to pieces, and dumped into a canal in the Amiriya district of Cairo.
On September 29, Mina Musa, 21, left his family home in Minya for a new job in Cairo. He was responding to an advertisement on social media to assist an elderly person in Cairo, for a generous salary, along with broader networking opportunities in the field of physical therapy.
His family lost contact with him after he left Minya, only to receive a call from people—the ones behind the fake job advertisement—saying they had kidnapped and were holding Mina for 150,000 Egyptian pounds in ransom—a very sizable sum for poorer Egyptians. His family immediately contacted the authorities (Mina had taken this distant job precisely to help not exacerbate his impoverished family’s condition).
The authorities managed to track the young man down to a Cairo apartment, where his kidnappers were holding him. On breaking into the apartment, they found parts of Mina’s body—his torso with one arm, no head, legs, or other arm, which had already been hacked off and thrown into the nearby Ismaila Canal. Three men were arrested; they confessed to their crime. Last reported, divers were searching for Mina’s head in the canal.
At this point, there is no clear indication that the heinous crime was, strictly speaking, “religiously” motivated.
Yet, two points for consideration:
The very concept of jizya makes clear that the only way for “infidels” to exist under Islamic rule is for them to pay an extra annual “tax”—tribute to the Islamic state. For some rulers, the Copts were to be squeezed of every ounce of wealth they possessed. Thus, an eighth century caliph, Suleiman Abdul Malik, once urged the governor of Egypt to “milk the camel [Egypt’s Christians] until it gives no more milk, and until it milks blood.”
Although the jizya was abolished due to pressure from colonial powers in the nineteenth century, the idea is still very much alive. As Anjem Choudary, a Pakistani cleric and welfare recipient in England, once boasted:
We take the jizya, which is our haq [Arabic for “right”], anyway. The normal situation, by the way, is to take money from the kafir [infidel], isn’t it? So this is the normal situation. They give us the money — you work, give us the money, Allahu Akbar! We take the money.
In short, radicalized Muslims believe it is their “right” to shake down any infidel they come across—including through abducting and holding them for ransom, as in the case of Mina.
Second, not only do Muslim criminals hold Christians and other infidels in contempt—thereby relieving their “conscience” when engaged in such coldblooded slaughter—but they know that the broader society, including the authorities, if not sharing in the same hostility for infidels, will at the very least express a certain indifference, and possibly look the other way. This, for example, is precisely why Muslim men in Egypt regularly target Coptic Christian women: they know the authorities will not bother—certainly not to the level they would if a Muslim woman were preyed on—allowing wrongdoers a level of impunity.
So, what may have happened is this: from all the applicants, the criminals specifically chose Mina Musa because his name cries out “Coptic Christian.” Not only had they been raised in a nation where preaching hate for Copts is common, thereby rationalizing and justifying the heinous crime, but they hoped that the authorities would not bother too much over Mina’s disappearance. In general, they may have been right, but in this case, the authorities did indeed behave professionally—which is not the general rule.
In short prevailing fundamentalist Islamic teachings/education that permeate Egyptian society likely played a role in this latest atrocity. At the very least, they help create an environment where Christians and other non-Muslims are ideal targets for criminals.

Biden's Hollow Warnings to China Are Leading to War
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/October 21, 2024
The world's two most dangerous states, Xi Jinping's People's Republic of China and Vladimir Putin's Russian Federation, have been growing closer in part, it seems, because they see there is no cost to ignoring the warnings of the Biden administration.
"Mr. Biden can either enforce his red line through sanctions or other means, or he can signal a collapse of American resolve by applying merely symbolic penalties. Beijing and its strategic partners in Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang, and Caracas would surely interpret half-hearted enforcement as a green light to deepen their campaign of global chaos. Mr. Xi sees a historic opportunity here to undermine the West." – Matt Pottinger, wsj.com, April 30, 2024
Since then, the Biden administration has done little but impose meaningless sanctions on Chinese parties, such as the ones announced on October 17 on two companies.
The American inaction today brings to mind President Obama's infamous red-line failure in Syria in 2013. We should not be surprised: Biden, then vice president, was Obama's foreign policy advisor.
Britain and France [last century] issued a series of threatening words to Berlin. German leaders, from the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 to the eve of the invasion of Poland in late summer 1939, ignored them. "Warnings were crafted in such a way so they could not be enforced and understood as not intended to be enforced." — Arthur Waldron, retired Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, to Gatestone Institute, October 17, 2024.
China's aggressive leader apparently believes he can with impunity do just about anything.
Hollow warnings lead to war.
The world's two most dangerous states, Xi Jinping's People's Republic of China and Vladimir Putin's Russian Federation, have been growing closer in part, it seems, because they see there is no cost to ignoring the warnings of the Biden administration.
"These are not dual-use capabilities," U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told reporters in Brussels on September 10, describing China's aid to Russia for use against Ukraine. "These are component pieces of a very substantial effort on the part of China to help sustain, build, and diversify various elements of the Russian war machine."
The Beijing-Moscow cooperation, Campbell argued, is "not a tactical alliance." It is, instead, "a fundamental alignment." The Chinese-Russian hook-up was "orchestrated at the highest levels" in the two capitals, he said.
With Campbell's words, the Biden administration for the first time accused China of providing Moscow with direct support for its war. At the same time, U.S. officials detailed Russia's technical assistance to China's submarine and missile programs.
The world's two most dangerous states, Xi Jinping's People's Republic of China and Vladimir Putin's Russian Federation, have been growing closer in part, it seems, because they see there is no cost to ignoring the warnings of the Biden administration.
President Joe Biden drew his red line on March 18, 2022 during a video call with Xi, warning China not to provide "material support" for the Russian war.
The Chinese state had been behind the Russian war effort even before Putin's February 24, 2022 invasion. Beijing apparently approved the attack, as evident from the 5,300-word joint statement issued when the Russian leader met Xi in Beijing just 20 days before the start of hostilities. That is when the two states declared their "no-limits" partnership.
In practice, "no limits" means China's support for Russia has been extensive, including the provision of location data for targeting purposes and the sale of attack drones and ammunition. Russia's most advanced tanks have Chinese circuit boards.
In late April, Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted that Xi was not heeding America's words. China, he charged, was Russia's primary supplier.
"Whatever Mr. Biden chooses to do next will be momentous for global security and stability," Matthew Pottinger, a deputy national security advisor in the Trump administration, wrote in the Wall Street Journal in late April.
"Mr. Biden can either enforce his red line through sanctions or other means, or he can signal a collapse of American resolve by applying merely symbolic penalties," Pottinger pointed out. "Beijing and its strategic partners in Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang, and Caracas would surely interpret half-hearted enforcement as a green light to deepen their campaign of global chaos. Mr. Xi sees a historic opportunity here to undermine the West."
Since then, the Biden administration has done little but impose meaningless sanctions on Chinese parties, such as the ones announced on October 17 on two companies.
"Biden's warnings to the People's Republic of China about providing 'lethal aid' to Russia for use in Ukraine were lost in the noise, largely because they were soft and ineffectual," Gregory Copley, president of the International Strategic Studies Association, told Gatestone last week. "They are like the bells on the ice-cream trucks that ply the suburbs of Americans cities: They just excite the children but spur ice-cream sales not a jot."
The American inaction today brings to mind President Barack Obama's infamous red-line failure in Syria in 2013. We should not be surprised: Biden, then vice president, was Obama's foreign policy advisor. Washington has, during the Biden administration and its predecessors, taught the Chinese, the Russians, the Iranians, and North Koreans to ignore warnings. For the consequences of Biden's hollow words, the second half of the 1930s in Europe is instructive.
Then, Britain and France issued a series of threatening words to Berlin. German leaders, from the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 to the eve of the invasion of Poland in late summer 1939, ignored them. "Warnings were crafted in such a way so they could not be enforced and understood as not intended to be enforced," Arthur Waldron, the retired Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, told this site.
Because London and Paris had failed to act when they had the opportunity to do so, the German leadership did not pay particular attention to their threats about Poland.
Who can blame Berlin for failing to understand the import of British and French statements about their willingness to declare war? "If you fail to act when action was conceivable, how does one hope to have credibility when action is almost impossible?" Waldron asks.
"The U.K. and French governments did not worry sufficiently, prepare sufficiently, or deter their eventual enemy at all," says Copley, also editor-in-chief of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy. "This is largely because the U.S. and Western governments today, like the French and German governments then, still have not awakened to the nature of the dilemma, and choose to believe that all will always be well." All is not well now. China's aggressive leader apparently believes he can with impunity do just about anything. There is no mystery where Xi Jinping got that idea. The fecklessness of the Biden administration has paved the way for history's next great conflict.
Hollow warnings lead to war.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America and The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute Distinguished Senior Fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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Is Jabaliya the key to defeating Hamas? - analysis
Seth J.Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 21/2024
The question now in Gaza is whether the death of Sinwar and the fighting in Jabaliya will hand Hamas a defeat that will change things strategically.
The IDF is continuing its operations in Jabalya, a neighborhood and suburb of Gaza City in northern Gaza. The area is home to a large number of Palestinian civilians who remained there throughout the war and also returned over the last year. It is estimated that there are hundreds of thousands of Gazans in northern Gaza, with many thousands living in Jabalya.
The military began operations in Jabalya for the third time in a year when the 162nd Division was pulled from Rafah and sent back into the area on October 6. This movement of troops set the stage for two important incidents. First, it led to the death of Yahya Sinwar, who was eliminated by troops searching Tel al-Sultan 10 days after the Jabalya operation began. Second, it has led to Israel’s demand that civilians evacuate large areas of northern Gaza.
It’s unclear if the Jabalya operation led to the finding of Sinwar. It is possible that he felt he could wander around more freely because he believed the IDF was shifting its focus to northern Gaza and Lebanon. What matters, though, is that Hamas continues to lose ground. On the other hand, Hamas continues to control large parts of Gaza. Reports on October 21 painted a picture of a Hamas that can still engage in hostage deal talks. Who is representing Hamas in Gaza? Probably Sinwar’s brother. However, Hamas also has many leaders abroad, most of whom live in Qatar and Turkey, both US allies. Turkey is a NATO ally and Qatar is a major non-NATO ally. “Senior Hamas official Khaled Meshaal has reiterated the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance movement in its struggle against the Zionist regime until the liberation of Palestine,” Iran’s IRNA reported on Monday. This illustrates that Hamas members in Qatar and Turkey are pushing for the war in Gaza to continue. Iran’s foreign minister recently visited Turkey and met with Hamas members while he was there. Turkey backs Hamas and it’s possible that coordination is taking place at high levels between Ankara and Tehran to back Hamas and figure out the next steps in Gaza. Meshaal’s statement is likely connected.
Hamas wants war to continue
“Meshaal, who is also serving as the head of Hamas outside Palestine, while delivering a speech in honor of Martyr Yahya Sinwar, the head of the political bureau of the resistance movement, said that the option of resistance is there until the liberation of Palestine,” IRNA reported in Iran. “During the Al-Aqsa storm operation, we lost a large number of resistance leaders in Gaza, the West Bank, and abroad, as well as the residents of the camps; this movement has always presented its leaders on the path of martyrdom, pride, liberation of the land, and the freedom from the Israeli occupation, headed by Ahmed Yassin, who was assassinated by the Zionist regime in 2004,” Meshaal said. This means that Hamas abroad is preparing for a long war and seeks to replace Sinwar. Publicly, Hamas wants to show that the group will not agree to a ceasefire or a deal.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Hamas is losing out in Jabalya. “Over the past day, IDF troops dismantled terror infrastructure and tunnel shafts and eliminated terrorists in the area of Jabalya. IDF tanks, in cooperation with the IAF, eliminated a number of terrorists that posed a threat to the troops,” the military said on Monday. The IDF continues to grind down the terrorists.
The military’s goal in Gaza is to remove Hamas infrastructure and find the remaining terrorists. It appears Hamas has returned to northern Gaza several times, even after the IDF fought in Jabalya in December 2023 and again in the first half of 2024.
Hamas keeps returning and recruiting. It is also innovating new ways to kill Israeli soldiers. The commander of the 401st Armored Brigade, Col. Ehsan Daxa, was killed on Sunday. This is a serious loss, and it follows other losses in Gaza that show Hamas is still a threat. The question now in Gaza is whether the death of Sinwar and the fighting in Jabalya will hand Hamas a defeat that will change things strategically. Israel has been fighting a tactical war in Gaza, where numerous victories have taken place, but Hamas is not completely defeated. The absence of a clear day-after strategy also leads to a sense among Hamas leaders abroad that they can hang on and survive. With the death of Sinwar, there are also questions about the ability to free the hostages. Throughout the majority of the year, the Gaza war unfolded on two fronts: discussions about hostages in Doha or Cairo and tactical battles within Gaza. It’s not clear if the pressure on Hamas or the reduction of its capabilities has led to flexibility on the hostages. Without Sinwar in charge, it should be possible to do more work on freeing the hostages.
The question after Jabalya is cleared of terrorists is whether there is a next step and a willingness to exploit the death of Sinwar for leverage. Hamas leaders abroad appear to be saying that they won’t budge. With most of them living in western allies, it is harder to foresee them being eliminated. This gives them confidence that they can hang on and “win” simply by continuing to survive.

A Major War Awaits the ‘Great Satan’
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/Mon, October 21, 2024
“This is the most dangerous of regional wars. Its outcomes will shape roles, locations, maps and capitals. Benjamin Netanyahu took advantage of Yahya Sinwar’s ‘flood’ to launch a complete coup against the Iranian revolt that took place decades ago. Netanyahu enjoys American support and western understanding to clip Iran and its proxies’ wings. It is a war that only America alone can stop at the time it sees fit and after the fighters grow tired.” The journalist grew anxious when he heard such remarks from a man who is concerned with the developments and their consequences.
It is evident that the Middle East is holding its breath. It is being promised with harsher days. The scattered storms may come together to form a hurricane. The region has never seen such a war. The war is spilling over borders, while the international community stands helpless. The people of the region are awaiting the Israeli strike against Iran. Tehran says it will have no choice but to retaliate. The exchange of retaliatory strikes threatens to fan the flames.
The scene is new and very dangerous. The current Israel does not resemble the one that existed before the October 7, 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood Operation. Netanyahu succeeded in turning the conflict into an existential war that Israel has no problem paying for in human life and financially.
Iran today does not resemble the Iran that existed before the “Flood”. Netanyahu lured it out of the “war of proxies” to become directly embroiled in a confrontation in the Middle East. It is a war that the United States cannot stay out of. This is something that Iran has long sought to avoid. Tehran was hoping that it would continue to be able to weave the carpet of its major coup in the region without slipping into a dangerous direct confrontation with the US.
Before the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, Sinwar informed Hezbollah and Iran through an envoy that “something big was about to happen.” He requested the greatest support from them for his operation. He dreamed that the operation would be the beginning of the “major blow” that he had whispered about for years, and which called for showering Israel with rockets and drones that would be fired from several countries, including Iran.
Sinwar received a pledge that he would receive the “greatest possible support, but he did not receive a commitment to deal the major strike.” He feared that Israel would sense that something was brewing and that it would deal a preemptive strike. He launched the “flood” perhaps believing that his allies would join him, despite their hesitation. Ultimately, Iran did not join him directly and Hezbollah chose to open the “support front” on October 8, 2023.
In the first hours of the operation, Israel appeared weak and fragile. The military institution decided to avenge the shortcomings and Netanyahu decided to lay down a complete Nakba in Gaza. It wasn’t enough to punish Hamas, but he also laid down the harshest punishment to its supporters, meaning the civilians. And, at first, he pretended to accept dealing with a low-level confrontation with Hezbollah according to the “rules of engagement.”
Meanwhile, a major change took place in the buildup to shifting the war to Lebanon and the US presidential elections: a direct confrontation with Iran became possible. Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon show that he is trying to keep Iran away from his borders. Israel dealt Hamas and Hezbollah severe blows when it assassinated Hassan Nasrallah and only recently and by chance, Sinwar.
Netanyahu has spoken about returning the hostages held by Hamas. He has also spoken about returning the residents of the north back home after they were forced to flee Hezbollah’s rockets and drones. His sense of Israel’s military superiority made him aim higher. He declared that he wanted to create radical change in the security situation surrounding Israel now and for generations to come. To achieve that, he has demanded that the “resistance” fronts in Gaza and Lebanon be eliminated through creating a buffer zone and imposing strict restrictions after a ceasefire is reached.
Amid the horrific scenes left behind by the Israeli military machine begin to emerge the signs of a violent coup against the coup that Iran had carried out in the region and made it the decision-maker in Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa.
It is a grinding war that will change the shape of the region and balances of power. It won’t be easy for Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei to accept that the end of his term will be coupled with the shrinking of the regional role he had spent decades building. Sinwar had inadvertently put the “Resistance Axis” to a difficult test. Lebanon is struggling with Israeli strikes and the displaced, Syria is trying to distance itself and Iraq is trying to avert an Israeli or American retaliation against its factions.
Back in Vienna in 2008, I had the chance to hold talks with then International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who had just met in Tehran with Khamanei, then President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and parliament Speaker Ali Larijani. I asked ElBaradei to sum up the Iranian position, to which he replied: “We want to be recognized as a major regional power.”
He explained that the Iranians believe that their main dispute lies with America. Ahmedinejad wants to resolve these differences and he dreams of being the engineer of this major deal. He believes that will make him a national hero, especially since 80 to 90 percent of the Iranian people want normal ties with the US. “Ahmedinejad personally told me before I left the atomic agency: ‘I want to hold direct negotiations with America alone; I don’t want Russia and China involved.’”
It is a war of roles, borders and balances. Only the “Great Satan” can intervene to stop the Israeli coup after breaking the arms of the Iranian coup. But what will the terrified maps involved do in wait of the decisive American intervention? What if Iran were to turn to the White House and find a man called Donald Trump there who will remind it of several painful incidents?

Is the World Ready for a Religious Comeback?
The New York Times/Mon, October 21, 2024
The heyday of the new atheism in Western life, when anti-God tracts by Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens bestrode best-seller lists, did not arrive because brilliant new arguments for God’s nonexistence were suddenly discovered.
Rather, it arrived because specific events and deeper forces made the time ripe for unbelief — because the early internet served as a novel transmission belt for skepticism, because Sept. 11 advertised the perils of religious fundamentalism, because the Catholic Church’s sex abuse crisis undermined the West’s strongest bastion of organized Christianity and because the digital-era retreat from authority and institutions hit religious institutions first.
Such an opportunity confronts religious writers today. The new-atheist idea that the weakening of organized religion would make the world more rational and less tribal feels much more absurd in 2024 than it did in 2006.
Existential anxiety and civilizational ennui, not rationalist optimism and humanist ambition, are the defining moods of secular liberalism nowadays. The decline of religious membership and practice is increasingly seen as a social problem rather than a great leap forward. People raised without belief are looking for meaning in psychedelics, astrology, U.F.O.s. And lately the rise of the “Nones” — Americans with no religious affiliation — has finally leveled off.
So the world seems primed for religious arguments in the same way it was primed for the new atheists 20 years ago. But the question is whether the religious can reclaim real cultural ground — especially in the heart of secularism, the Western intelligentsia — as opposed to just stirring up a vague nostalgia for belief. It’s one thing to get nonbelievers to offer kind words. The challenge is to go further, to persuade anxious moderns that religion is more than merely pragmatically useful, more than just a wistful hope — that a religious framework actually makes much more sense of reality than the allegedly hardheaded materialist alternative.
I have skin in this game, since I will be offering my own attempt at persuasion next year. But the past few months have brought three religious books that enter this debate — covering the philosophical, the scientific and the experiential cases for a religious perspective on the world.
The philosophical case comes from the polymathic philosopher-theologian David Bentley Hart. His new book is “All Things Are Full of Gods: The Mysteries of Mind and Life,” the culmination of decades of argument against the new atheists and all reductive accounts of human consciousness.
Whereas “All Things Are Full of Gods” is written in the form of a Platonic dialogue (!) among a group of retired Greek deities, and arguing with one another about contemporary mortal debates in philosophy of mind and neuroscience and information theory.
The dialogical format does have one great advantage, though: It requires Hart to give extended space to ideas that he’s famous for treating with, well, Olympian disdain. Through the god Hephaestus, to whom he assigns the skeptical and anti-supernatural part, you get an extended elaboration of the arguments that mind and self and thought are reducible to mindless matter.
If you think this sounds like interesting philosophical noodling but also fundamentally anti-scientific, you can turn to the next book in my trio, Spencer Klavan’s “Light of the Mind, Light of the World,” which is an argument that the development of modern science supplies laboratory evidence for the primacy of mind. This is not just the familiar case that the fine-tuning of the universe is proof that some Divine Intelligence set the whole thing up. It’s an argument that the materialist model of the universe as a closed physical system, in which units of matter bounce around like billiard balls, has been overthrown by the quantum revolution — which demonstrated, to the bafflement of many scientists, that probabilities only collapse into reality itself when a conscious mind is there is to measure and observe.
Klavan argues that really reckoning with this discovery should force a decisive choice. Which is why the other choice is preferable, if you really trust the science: Accept that there is only one reality and that it’s “created when consciousness gives shape to time and space” — created in some sense every time we look upon it, and created fundamentally by the Power that said let there be light in the first place. This is wild stuff from a materialist perspective, but in my experience with open-minded skeptics, it’s not the place where they hit their limit. That’s more likely to happen when you proceed one step further, into the territory of the real old-time religion, and start talking about the more personalized and unpredictable ways that supernatural mind might shape material reality — the realm of miracles and revelations, visions and portents, legit angels and real demons.
This realm is the subject of the last book in my troika, Rod Dreher’s “Living in Wonder: Finding Mystery and Meaning in a Secular Age.” It’s partly a collection of anecdata about the persistence of enchantment even under allegedly disenchanted conditions, the supernatural happenings that flower constantly in our notionally secularized world. This means that of the three, the Dreher book is the most fun, it tells the best stories, and it covers aspects of human life that are more fundamental to religion’s resilience than any argument or theory — above all, the fact that even in societies that exclude any hint of supernaturalism from their systems of official knowledge, strange experiences just keep on breaking in. From the religious perspective, of course — Hart’s and Klavan’s no less than Dreher’s — it’s all the same God. So the test for all their arguments is whether a world that’s unhappy in its unbelief can be pushed all the way to this conclusion — or whether contemporary disillusionment with secularism is enough to draw people to the threshold of religion, but something more than argument is required to pull them through.