English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 16/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, to all those who have, more will be given; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away
Luke 19/11-28: “As they were listening to this, Jesus went on to tell a parable, because he was near Jerusalem, and because they supposed that the kingdom of God was to appear immediately. So he said, ‘A nobleman went to a distant country to get royal power for himself and then return. He summoned ten of his slaves, and gave them ten pounds, and said to them, “Do business with these until I come back.” But the citizens of his country hated him and sent a delegation after him, saying, “We do not want this man to rule over us. “When he returned, having received royal power, he ordered these slaves, to whom he had given the money, to be summoned so that he might find out what they had gained by trading. The first came forward and said, “Lord, your pound has made ten more pounds.” He said to him, “Well done, good slave! Because you have been trustworthy in a very small thing, take charge of ten cities.” Then the second came, saying, “Lord, your pound has made five pounds.” He said to him, “And you, rule over five cities.” Then the other came, saying, “Lord, here is your pound. I wrapped it up in a piece of cloth, for I was afraid of you, because you are a harsh man; you take what you did not deposit, and reap what you did not sow. “He said to him, “I will judge you by your own words, you wicked slave! You knew, did you, that I was a harsh man, taking what I did not deposit and reaping what I did not sow? Why then did you not put my money into the bank? Then when I returned, I could have collected it with interest.” He said to the bystanders, “Take the pound from him and give it to the one who has ten pounds.” (And they said to him, “Lord, he has ten pounds!”)”I tell you, to all those who have, more will be given; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away. But as for these enemies of mine who did not want me to be king over them bring them here and slaughter them in my presence.” ’ After he had said this, he went on ahead, going up to Jerusalem.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 15-16/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The Epic Failure of Maarab Conference No. 2—Maronite Misery Defined by Geagea and Aoun
Elias Bejjani/Lebanese Christian Leadership: Subservient, Neutered, and Ignorant of Gratitude
Hezbollah vows to expand attacks in Israel after deadly strike in Lebanon's Christian heartland
Fighting escalates along Lebanese border as Hezbollah threatens to strike anywhere in Israel
Interrogated Hezbollah terrorist: 'Everyone fled after Nasrallah was killed'
Mass displacement in Lebanon war revives spectre of sectarian strife
Israel strikes Lebanon after Netanyahu vows no mercy for Hezbollah
Federation of Arab Journalists Condemns Israeli Crimes against Journalists in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine
Security Council Voices 'Strong Concern' for UNIFIL after Israeli Attacks
Lebanon: Mikati Says Diplomatic Efforts 'Intensify' to Secure Ceasefire
UN Refugee Agency Says 25% of Lebanon under Israeli Evacuation Orders
Hezbollah Deputy Chief Says Group Aims to Inflict Pain on Israel
Hezbollah deputy chief says group aims to inflict pain on Israel
US assured Lebanon that Israel would ease Beirut strikes, Lebanese prime minister says
Israel's demining near Golan signals wider front against Hezbollah, sources say
UN says deadly Israeli strike in northern Lebanon should be investigated
Israel's row with Unifil driven by long distrust
France backs UN peacekeepers in Lebanon amid Israel's Hezbollah offensive
Amid Worrying Uncertainty, the Lebanese Are Searching for a Homeland

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 15-16/2024
US threatens Israel: Resolve humanitarian crisis in Gaza or face arms embargo - report
IDF should target Iranian oil fields, Lapid tells 'Post' - exclusive
In clash with Netanyahu, Macron says Israel PM 'mustn't forget his country created by UN decision'
US tells Israel to improve Gaza's humanitarian situation or risk aid, reports s
Terror shooting attack near Ashdod kills police officer, wounds four, attacker killed
U.S. condemns 'horrifying' Israeli attack that set Palestinian tent encampment ablaze
Israel assures US it plans to target Iran’s military, not oil or nuclear sites, source says
US warns Iran to stop plotting against Trump, says US official
Previous government planned sanctions against Israeli ministers – Cameron
US imposes sanctions on 'sham charity' fundraising for Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
UK Sanctions Target Israeli Settler Outposts
Two drones crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel with no injuries reported, army says
US, UK jets strike Houthi-held Hodeidah for second day
Crown prince oversees signing of Saudi-Egypt council during visit to meet with El-Sisi
Russian Troops Made An 'Expensive And Embarrassing Failure' On The Battlefield, UK Says
Ex-IDF air defense chief Kochav to 'Post': How to solve drone problem

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 15-16/2024
Awaiting Israel’s strike, Tehran pushes propaganda to cushion the blow/Behnam Ben Taleblu/ FDD's Long War Journal/October 15/2024
Hamas-Supporting Grandson of Mandela Unable to Enter UK/David May & Toby Dershowitz/| Policy Brief/October 15/2024
War fatigue settles among Palestinians/Ben Cohen/Jewish News Syndicate/October 15/2024
The United States continues to feel the repercussions of Oct. 7/Enia Krivine/Jewish News Syndicate/October 15/2024
Egypt Publishes Book Calling for the Destruction of Churches/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/October 15/2024
Amid worrying uncertainty, the Lebanese are searching for a homeland/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15, 2024
Al-Aqsa Flood: Militias Drown as the State Returns/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2024

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 15-16/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video:  The Epic Failure of Maarab Conference No. 2—Maronite Misery Defined by Geagea and Aoun
Elias Bejjani, October 14, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135690/
Let’s cut to the chase: the second Maarab Conference held last Saturday was a colossal failure, just like the first. It was a disgrace to the alienated Christian leadership, disconnected from the realities unfolding in Lebanon and across the Middle East. The sole purpose of the conference was not to address the concerns of Lebanon, its people, or the Christian presence under Iranian occupation. Nor did it focus on the ongoing war between Hezbollah and Israel, or the disasters plaguing the nation. What Geagea sought, and will never achieve, is the fulfillment of his grandiose delusion of being the "one and only Christian leader." This delusion has blinded him for years, and because of it, untold catastrophes have befallen the Christians. Let us not forget that he seized the leadership of the Lebanese Forces Party (LF) through violence, without ever being elected to that position.
It is evident that this so-called conference achieved nothing but exposing Geagea's illusions. There will be no presidency, no first lady, and it’s time to wake up from these delusional daydreams. His obsessive hallucinations will likely lead him to call for a third Maarab Conference soon, driven by the same baseless fantasy of being the "sole Christian leader." Those who fail to learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them.
On the other side, Aoun, his son-in-law, and their opportunistic herd held prayers for the martyrs of October 13, 1990—the very martyrs they betrayed. It was Aoun and his cronies who jumped over their blood, forming alliances with those who killed them. Aoun and his son-in-law and their herd of puppets, just like Geagea, live in a distorted reality and stuck in a 1990 déjà vu, as if they were still in the presidential palace.
A Brief on Samir Geagea’s Failures
Geagea lacks any vision, and in every pivotal moment, his decisions have been blind and destructive for the Christians. Some examples include: the execution of two men he falsely accused of trying to assassinate him, his participation in the killing of Tony Frangieh, his surrender of the Lebanese Forces’ weapons, his drowning in the Taif Agreement, his idiotic alliance of mutual personal interest with Aoun, his election of Aoun for presidency, and his failure to flee during the Syrian occupation and stupidly go willingly to prison  (even Christ fled multiple times). He even extended condolences in Qardaha over Basil al-Assad’s death, abandoned the South Lebanon Army members, and showed cowardice in defending them. His hypocrisy knows no bounds, claiming Hezbollah’s martyrs are like those of the Lebanese Forces, while also falsely stating that Hezbollah liberated the South when he knows Israel withdrew by internal decision. His shameless flattery of Hezbollah's MPs, calling them Lebanese representatives of the Shiites, while in reality, Hezbollah holds the Shiite population hostage and imposes its MPs by force. He opposed the Orthodox electoral law and sidelined every intellectual in his circle. All this, coupled with his narcissistic delusion of being the "sole Christian leader," leads to a total lack of leadership and vision.
In conclusion, All Maronites' Failures, Disasters, and Downfalls since 1986 are the Direct Products of Aoun & Geagea's Narcissistic and Blind Agendas"

Lebanese Christian Leadership: Subservient, Neutered, and Ignorant of Gratitude
Elias Bejjani / October 13, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135609/
Nothing has destroyed Arab societies, their nations, and Lebanon more than the ignorant and foolish phrase: "No voice is louder than the voice of battle."
This unfortunate and self-destructive slogan has for years concealed the deep existential problems eating away at the Lebanese state, allowing Hezbollah, the armed, sectarian, and terrorist Iranian armed proxy to expand, take control of the country, and turn it into a military base for Iranian arms, a battlefield for its wars, and a launch pad for its destructive expansionist evil project. Hezbollah was left free to roam under the "mafia-militia" equation (the mafia covering corruption, the militia covering weapons and occupation), creating a culture of fear, submission, surrender, and Dhimmitude. It suppressed, through force, assassinations, and fabricated judicial cases, any attempt to confront its terror that has been choking Lebanon and its people for more than 40 years.
In the midst of this ongoing war between Hezbollah and Israel that is burning and destroying our homeland and displacing our people, we must speak honestly and loudly, without fear: Hezbollah is not just a threat to Lebanon; it is a plague that has infiltrated every corner of the Lebanese societies, oppressing our people, particularly Christians, and assassinating Lebanese leaders who stand against it.
Whether we like Israel or not, it is currently the only force capable of facing this enormous challenge, dismantling Hezbollah's leadership, and breaking its terrorist network. No other power in the world has the military capability or strategic interest to accomplish this mission. Yet, many Lebanese Christian leaders, driven by Dhimmitude and foolishness, continue to show vile ingratitude, attacking Israel with empty rhetoric, labeling it  "enemy" "barbaric" and "criminal." etc
These leaders, whether secular or religious, are betraying their own people by failing to recognize the importance of what Israel is doing to liberate Lebanon from Hezbollah’s occupation and threat.
This is not just about regional politics; it is a matter of Lebanon’s survival and existence, especially for the Christians, whom Hezbollah has systematically targeted for decades in an effort to uproot them. Hezbollah's terrorism, arrogance, and depravity have turned Christians into second-class citizens in their own country, forced to live under the threat of violence, coerced into submission, and stripped of their political power in governance.
In 1982, when Bachir Gemayel was assassinated, we, as Christians and Lebanese in general, lost our greatest chance to reclaim Lebanon from the forces that sought its destruction. Now, 42 years later, we are at another critical crossroads in our history.
Instead of seizing this opportunity and aligning with the only force—Israel—that can destroy Hezbollah, Lebanese Christian leaders are once again proving themselves to be neutered and subservient, unable to break free from the mentality and culture of Dhimmitude that has enslaved them. These leaders, in their foolishness, continue to appease Hezbollah, standing idly by while Israel does the hard work of dismantling a terrorist organization that has brought nothing but pain and destruction to Lebanon and its people.
This is not just cowardice; it is a betrayal of the Lebanese people, especially Christians, who deserve to live freely, like other Lebanese, in a sovereign and independent nation.
If these Christian leaders had any dignity or vision, they would stop their pointless and foolish attacks on Israel and start showing gratitude for what is being done to free Lebanon from the grip of the Iranian militia.
History will not forgive those who, at the moment of Hezbollah's fall, chose cowardice over courage, and ingratitude over the duty to acknowledge the favor.
The chance to reclaim Lebanon from the jaws of Iran and its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, is now. Israel is offering us this final opportunity. Let us not repeat the mistake we made in 1982; this may be our last chance to restore our homeland and live in peace.

Hezbollah vows to expand attacks in Israel after deadly strike in Lebanon's Christian heartland
Kareem Chehayeb And Bassem Mroue/AITO, Lebanon (AP)/October 15, 2024
The day after a deadly Israeli airstrike in northern Lebanon – far from Hezbollah’s main area of influence – the militant group's acting leader said it would aim rockets into more areas of Israel. Naim Kassem said Hezbollah is focused on “hurting the enemy,” and he signaled it would ramp up attacks further south in Israel. He mentioned the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa, which have already been targets of attacks. His comments in a pre-recorded, televised speech were delivered on the same day the United States said it sent a small team of troops to Israel to support an American-made missile-defense system. The Biden administration has also sent a warning to Israel: Increase the amount of humanitarian aid it allows into Gaza within the next 30 days or risk losing access to U.S. weapons funding. Hezbollah has fired an estimated 13,000 rockets into Israel over the past year in support of Hamas’ war with Israel in Gaza. Tens of thousands of northern Israelis have been displaced from their homes, and Israel has said its escalating war with Hezbollah is aimed at stopping those rockets so families can return home. Israel's military said Hezbollah fired over 90 projectiles into Israel on Tuesday, with no details. On Monday, an Israeli airstrike on an apartment building in northern Lebanon killed at least 22 people. Israel said it struck a target belonging to Hezbollah, but the United Nations on Tuesday called for an independent investigation. “We have real concerns with respect to … the laws of war,” said Jeremy Laurence, a spokesperson for the U.N.’s human rights office in Geneva. Laurence said the U.N. had received credible reports that a dozen women and children were among the dead. In the village of Aito, in Lebanon's Christian heartland, rescue workers on Tuesday found more bodies and remains in the rubble, including the body of a child.
Aito is far from Hezbollah’s main areas of influence in Lebanon’s south and east. The strike was a shock to residents, and it exacerbated fears that Israel would expand its offensive deeper into Lebanon. “I heard a loud noise, like a boom,” said Dany Alwan, who lives next door. “We ran outside, I saw the dust and the smoke and the rubble. There was a body here, another one there. It was a really ugly and painful scene.” The three-story building had been rented out to the Hijazi family, who fled their home in the southern village of Aitaroun, according to Elie Alwan, Dany Alwan’s brother and the building’s owner. Some 1.2 million people have fled southern and eastern Lebanon, where the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has been concentrated.
Several villages in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley saw intensified airstrikes Tuesday. The state-run National News Agency said an Israeli airstrike on Qana in Tyre province killed at least one person and wounded 30. And the Lebanese Health Ministry said a strike on Riyak in the Bekaa Valley killed five people, including three children. Hezbollah began targeting Israel with rockets on Oct. 8, 2023, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that left 1,200 dead and 250 as hostages in Gaza. Israel’s ensuing war against Hamas has left more than 42,000 people dead in Gaza, according to local health officials. They do not differentiate between fighters and civilians, but have said a little over half the dead are women and children. Hezbollah has said it will continue to target Israel until a cease-fire in Gaza is reached. “We cannot separate Lebanon from Palestine, or Palestine from the world,” said Kassem, who has led Hezbollah since Sept. 27, when its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike. Over the past year, 2,350 people in Lebanon have been killed in Israeli airstrikes, according to the country’s Health Ministry, which says roughly 25% have been women and children. Meanwhile, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder announced that U.S. troops had arrived in Israel a day earlier. The team will operate a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery to defend against ballistic missile attacks from Iran, which supports both Hezbollah and Hamas and has launched two missile attacks on Israel this year. “Over the coming days, additional U.S. military personnel and THAAD battery components will continue to arrive in Israel,” Ryder said. Iran has warned U.S. troops would be in harm’s way if they launch another attack.

Fighting escalates along Lebanese border as Hezbollah threatens to strike anywhere in Israel
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/October 15, 2024
BEIRUT: Clashes between the Israeli army and Hezbollah intensified on Tuesday as an Israeli infantry unit advanced on the outskirts of the border town of Rab El-Thalathine. At the same time, Israel stepped up its airstrikes on numerous towns in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, resulting in mass casualties. As tensions continued to escalate, calls by Lebanese politicians for a ceasefire grew and they urged the government to deploy army forces in the border region. In a televised speech, however, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, Sheikh Naim Qassem said “the party (Hezbollah) is strong and united.” Pictured alongside a Lebanese flag and the Hezbollah banner, he warned that “since the enemy has targeted all of Lebanon, we have the right, from a defensive standpoint, to target any point within the Israeli entity.” He added: “The solution lies in a ceasefire. Following the ceasefire … the settlers will return to the north. However, as long as the conflict persists, the number of uninhabited settlements will increase, placing hundreds of thousands, potentially more than 2 million, at risk.” Fouad Siniora, a former prime minister of Lebanon, called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities to halt the bloodshed … as well as a complete adherence to the constitution.” The Kataeb Party called upon “the speaker of the parliament and the prime minister to urgently seek a definitive and unambiguous position from Hezbollah concerning the immediate acceptance of a ceasefire.”Meanwhile, fighting continues. Hezbollah said its members “engaged in combat with the Israeli forces that infiltrated into the area of Rab El-Thalathine using automatic weapons and missiles, and the clashes are ongoing.”
Fighting also resumed in the border town of Aita Al-Shaab. The Israeli army has tried to cross the Blue Line and enter Lebanese territory in several places. The extent to which incursions have been successful remains unclear, other than video footage released by the Israeli army.
Meanwhile, more than 20 people were killed or injured when an airstrike hit a residential building in the town of Riyaq in Bekaa. Elsewhere, Mohammed Hassan Mashourab, an employee of internet provider Ogero, his wife Ghida Farhat and their children, Raine and Ali, were killed when an airstrike hit their house in the town of Jarjou, in Iqlim Al-Tuffah region. Israel also targeted Qilya in Western Bekaa with a series of airstrikes, killing three paramedics from Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization. Similar attacks targeted Hosh Al-Sayyid Ali in Hermel, and the border area of Jarmash, near the border with Syria. Parts of Baalbek in the vicinity of its Roman castle were also hit by airstrikes at dawn, described by residents as “the most violent of all times.” Neighboring Al-Murtada Hospital was severely damaged and forced to close. Israeli forces said they “eliminated Khader Al-Abed, who was in charge of the area north of the Litani River with Hezbollah’s aerial unit.” Hezbollah did not immediately confirm this. Israeli reconnaissance planes entered Lebanese airspace over Beirut and its suburbs and thermal balloons were deployed over the capital.
Army forces targeted a residential building in Ayto, a town in the Zgharta district of northern Lebanon and the death toll among civilians there rose to 23 on Tuesday, including women, children and the elderly, some of whom were reportedly “blown to pieces.”Avichai Adraee, a spokesperson for the Israeli military, again warned residents of southern Lebanon on Tuesday “not to return to their villages in the south or to their olive groves.”In a joint statement, the World Food Programme and UNICEF said “the humanitarian needs of displaced people in Lebanon are increasing. We need to mobilize efforts to provide additional funding to enable a scaled-up response.” A ceasefire is urgently required, they added. According to the latest daily report issued by the Lebanese government, 200 Israeli airstrikes were recorded in the past 48 hours, bringing the total number of attacks on Lebanon since the start of hostilities just over a year ago to 9,866. The reported death toll stands at 2,309, with 10,782 people injured and 188,146 displaced and living in more than 1,000 shelters, the majority of them in Beirut and Mount Lebanon. Lebanese citizens have received calls from Israeli authorities ordering them to evacuate their homes and other buildings in specific streets in many Lebanese regions because Hezbollah militants are sheltering in them, which has caused panic among residents. Some of these calls, described as “psychological warfare,” were reported in Christian areas, including Sin El-Fil, Ballouneh and Hadath, causing chaos among residents and displaced people who thought they were in safe areas.

Interrogated Hezbollah terrorist: 'Everyone fled after Nasrallah was killed'
Jerusalem Post/October 15/2024
The IDF said it found Wadah Kamal Yunis in a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon.
IDF special intelligence Unit 504 revealed on Tuesday night that one of the Hezbollah fighters it had captured and interrogated said that "they all fled...after the assassination of [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah, I did not see any of them." Unit 504 is known as "the IDF's Mossad", and its activities are generally highly secretive, with even its top commander's name not being revealed. The IDF said it found Wadah Kamal Yunis in a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon. It said that IDF troops found and surrounded the tunnel and started to explore it. Eventually, IDF soldiers found Yunis and brought him to Israel to be interrogated by special Unit 504.
Addressing Hezbollah's Radwan forces
According to the translation of the video of the interrogation, Yunis said that his top four commanders, including the commander of his entire region, all fled after Nasrallah was killed on September 27.Further, he attacked Hezbollah's Radwan special forces as "having little religious principles, people with no religion, who joined to get paid money, and fled because they were afraid of Israeli forces."

Mass displacement in Lebanon war revives spectre of sectarian strife
Timour Azhari/BEIRUT (Reuters)/October 15, 2024
Marjayoun, a majority Christian town in southern Lebanon, opened its schools and a church last month to house scores of people fleeing Israel's bombardment of Muslim villages, extending a hand across the country's sectarian divide. Some residents were uneasy, worried that those seeking refuge could include people linked to Hezbollah, the Shi'ite Muslim militia and political party at war with Israel, seven of them told Reuters. But they wanted to uphold local customs of good neighbourliness and they knew that those fleeing the widening Israeli offensive had nowhere to go.
Marjayoun had been spared the brunt of Israel's attacks on Hezbollah during the past year. But residents soon felt that war had arrived. On Oct. 6, two locals - a teacher and a police officer - were killed on Marjayoun's outskirts by Israeli drone strikes targeting a Shi'ite man on a motorbike, according to two security sources and local residents. The Israeli military did not respond to a request for comment. Later that day, a displaced man who sought to shelter in Marjayoun's bishopric fired a gun in the air and threatened staff after he was asked to move to a different location, according to three residents and Philip Okla, the priest of Marjayoun's Orthodox Church. Marjayoun's welcoming spirit swiftly evaporated.
"You can't invite fire to your home," Okla told Reuters, speaking via phone from the town, expressing the fears of some residents that the displaced people would attract violence.
Following calls from locals for them to leave, dozens of displaced people departed the village, along with many of the town's terrified inhabitants, according to Okla and six residents, who asked not to be identified. Lebanon's population is a mosaic of more than a dozen religious sects, with political representation divided along sectarian lines. Religious divisions fuelled the ferocity of a brutal 1975-1990 civil war, which left some 150,000 people dead and drew in neighbouring states. Reuters spoke to more than a dozen lawmakers, politicians, residents and analysts who said that Israel's military offensive across Shi'ite-majority areas of Lebanon, which has displaced more than a million people into Sunni and Christian areas, has brought sectarian tensions to the fore, posing a threat to Lebanon's stability. The antipathy is being fuelled by repeated Israeli attacks on buildings housing displaced families, giving rise to concerns that hosting them can make you a target, the sources said. "Now, barriers are going up and fears are rising because no-one knows where we are going," said Okla, who expressed regret for the increasing hostility.
A FRAGILE FABRIC
Lebanese militias linked to religious groups fought a 15-year civil war. The conflict ended with the disarmament of all save Hezbollah, which kept its weapons to resist Israel's ongoing occupation of the south. Israel withdrew in 2000 but Hezbollah retained its arms. It fought a border war against Israel in 2006 and turned its weapons on political opponents inside Lebanon in 2008 in street battles that cemented its ascendency. A U.N.-backed court convicted Hezbollah members for the 2005 assassination of Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and opponents blame it for a string of other assassinations of mostly Christian and Sunni politicians. It has always denied responsibility for any of them. With support from Iran, Hezbollah grew into a regional force, fighting in Syria to help quash an uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, while maintaining effective veto power over decision-making inside Lebanon, including over the presidency, which is reserved for a Maronite Christian by convention.
The position has been vacant since 2022.
With Hezbollah's Shi'ite support base reeling from Israel's blows, Lebanon's leaders - including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, a Sunni Muslim businessman - have stressed the importance of maintaining "civil peace".Even Hezbollah's rivals, including the Christian Lebanese Forces party, have largely complied by moderating their political rhetoric and urging supporters not to stoke tensions. But on the ground, those tensions are real, including around schools that have welcomed displaced people in Beirut. Members of Hezbollah-allied parties have seized control of who comes and goes and what enters some of those institutions, according to several residents.
Main thoroughfares clogged only during rush hour are now lined day and night with cars belonging to people who fled Israeli bombing, straining the city's already-crumbling infrastructure.
In the Christian Beirut suburb of Boutchay, aggravated residents on Friday stopped a truck from unloading a container into a depot rented to someone from outside the area, suspecting it might contain Hezbollah weapons, mayor Michel Khoury said. "There is tension. Everyone is scared today," Khoury said, adding that the vehicle was turned away without being searched
Druze lawmaker Wael Abu Faour said politicians from all sides needed to work to preserve national unity. "Beirut could explode because of the displaced, because of the friction, because of the disputes over properties - because the South, the Bekaa and the suburbs are all in Beirut," he said. Lebanon was already reeling from the August 2020 Beirut port blast and a half-decade economic crisis - which has impoverished hundreds of thousands - when Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel the day after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack.
Asked about the risks of sectarian tensions, United Nations refugee chief Filippo Grandi told Reuters that Lebanon is a "fragile country". "Any shock, and this is a major shock, can really make the country backtrack... and can cause big problems," Grandi said
RISKS FOR HEZBOLLAH
The displacement crisis also presents a challenge for Hezbollah, which has long prided itself on providing for its community but now faces escalating needs and a lacklustre response from a near-bankrupt state. A Lebanese official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, told Reuters Hezbollah's softening stance on a Lebanon ceasefire was in part driven by the pressure created by the mass displacement. Hezbollah did not respond to a request for comment.
During a visit to a school hosting displaced people last week, Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Moqdad insisted the group's supporters "are ready for the harshest conditions and most difficult circumstances." "This calamity brought us closer together," he said, adding Lebanon had withstood a "test." But Neamat Harb, a Shi'ite woman who fled the southern town of Harouf with her extended family, said living in a school was tiring and people there required more support from Hezbollah and the government. "They should be very mindful of their support base," she said. "They should negotiate as much as possible (for a ceasefire) so people can go home sooner," she said. Most displaced people who can afford rent have found apartments to stay in, though landlords are often demanding a minimum three-month payment on the spot, according to landlords and prospective tenants. But some residences refuse to house displaced, according to four landlords or prospective tenants. Others sent their tenants notices urging them to "KNOW YOUR NEIGHBOURS" and limit visits "to preserve everyone's safety", according to a notice seen by Reuters.
MEMORIES OF CIVIL WAR
For some, the mass displacement and demographic tensions have brought back unwelcome memories of state breakdown and mass squatting that took place during Lebanon's civil war.
At least half a dozen apartment blocks and hotels in Beirut's Hamra district were broken into and turned into shelters by the Hezbollah-allied Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, members of the group and local residents said. The SSNP mobilized dozens of its members in the effort, according to the party officials.A Reuters reporter saw members of the SSNP, identified by party armbands, standing guard at two buildings. One of them, a 14-storey hotel put out of commission by Lebanon's half-decade economic crisis, now hosts 800 people, according to the SSNP member in charge there, Wassim Chantaf. "There is no state. Zero. We are taking the place of the state," he said, as party members directed traffic and unloaded a truck of donated bottled water.
Another Saudi-owned building nearby had only a few years ago managed to relocate squatters dating back to Lebanon's civil war. Then last month, more than 200 people fleeing Israel's escalating strikes broke in, said Rebecca Habib, a lawyer who filed a suit to get them out. She succeeded after authorities secured a different place for them to stay. "We're scared history is repeating itself," she said.

Israel strikes Lebanon after Netanyahu vows no mercy for Hezbollah
AFP/October 15, 2024
BEIRUT: Israel’s military launched strikes Tuesday on eastern Lebanon, official Lebanese media reported, as Hezbollah fought Israeli soldiers after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed no mercy for the militant group. The premier’s pledge on Monday came a day after a drone attack by the Iran-backed Lebanese group on an Israeli base killed four soldiers, while volunteer rescuers said another 60 people were wounded. “We will continue to mercilessly strike Hezbollah in all parts of Lebanon — including Beirut,” Netanyahu said on a visit to the base near Binyamina, south of Haifa. Hezbollah said its “fighters clashed with” Israeli troops Tuesday who were trying to infiltrate on the outskirts of Rab Tlatin village. The group also said it launched missiles at soldiers and a barrage of rockets at northern Israel, while the military reported sirens blaring near the border.
Israel’s military, meanwhile, said its “troops eliminated dozens of terrorists in close-quarters combat” and strikes over the past day. Since Israel last month escalated its bombing in Lebanon before sending ground troops across the frontier, the war has killed at least 1,315 people, according to an AFP tally of Lebanese health ministry figures, though the real toll is likely higher. Israel launched multiple air strikes early Tuesday in the eastern Bekaa Valley, putting a hospital in Baalbek city out of service, Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) reported. The International Committee of the Red Cross’s regional director, Nicolas Von Arx, appealed Monday for the protection of ambulances and other health facilities and personnel, calling attacks on them “deeply worrying.”Israeli strikes have targeted Hezbollah strongholds as well as other parts of Lebanon, including a northern Christian-majority village where at least 21 people were killed Monday, according to the health ministry. Anis Abla, civil defense chief in the southern border town of Marjayoun, said rescuers were “exhausted.”“Our rescue missions are becoming more and more difficult, because the strikes are never-ending and target us,” said Abla.
Independent probe
The UN called Tuesday for a “prompt, independent and thorough investigation” into an Israeli strike in the northern Lebanese village of Aito which it said had killed 22 people. “What we’re hearing is that among the 22 people who were who were killed were 12 women and two children,” UN rights office spokesman Jeremy Laurence told reporters about Monday’s strike, adding that this raises “real concerns with respect to ... the laws of war and principles of distinction, proportion and proportionality.”
Fierce battles
Israel says it wants to push back Hezbollah in order to secure its northern boundary and allow tens of thousands of people displaced by rocket fire since last year to return home safely. In Kfar Kara, a village in northern Israel, restaurant manager Yousef was shaken by the deadly Hezbollah strike on a nearby military base. “Now they know where that base is, what if next time they fire and are slightly off target?” he said, declining to give his full name for safety reasons. Hezbollah said it had launched the “squadron of attack drones” in response to Israeli attacks, including one last week that Lebanon’s health ministry said killed at least 22 people in central Beirut. The group says its strikes are also in support of Palestinian militants Hamas who attacked Israel on October 7 last year, triggering the ongoing war with Israel in the Gaza Strip. The war in Lebanon has displaced at least 690,000 people, according to verified figures last week from the International Organization for Migration. Israel faced new criticism over injuries and damage sustained by the UN peacekeeping force which has been deployed in Lebanon since 1978, after a previous Israeli invasion. The UN Security Council for the first time on Monday expressed “strong concerns” over peacekeepers being wounded. UNIFIL has refused Netanyahu’s request for peacekeepers to “get out of harm’s way,” with UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix saying the blue helmets will stay in their positions.
War on Gaza
While deploying troops into Lebanon, Israel has kept up its bombardment of Gaza where it has been at war since the Hamas attack on southern Israel. That attack resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures, including hostages killed in captivity. Israel’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed 42,289 people, the majority civilians, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory. The UN has described the figures as reliable.At a school-turned-shelter hit by an Israeli strike in the central Nuseirat camp, Fatima Al-Azab said “there is no safety anywhere” in Gaza. “They are all children, sleeping in the covers, all burned and cut up, all burned,” she said following Sunday’s deadly strike. In northern Gaza, the Israeli military announced it had effectively laid siege to the Jabalia area as it seeks to rout out Hamas fighters. “The number of dead is high, and people are under the rubble, missing,” said Muhammad Abu Halima, a 40-year-old Jabalia resident. Hussam Abu Safiya, director of Jabalia’s Kamal Adwan Hospital, confirmed “a blockade on food, medicine, medical supplies and even fuel.” The Israeli military said it has “eliminated dozens of terrorists over the past day” in Jabalia. Despite the violence, elsewhere in Gaza the second round of a polio vaccination campaign for hundreds of thousands of children began on Monday. Since the Gaza war began Israeli forces or settlers have killed hundreds of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, with two more fatalities Monday in the northern city of Jenin.
Fears of regional war
With the war there and in Lebanon showing no sign of abating, fears of even wider regional conflict have seen Iran, which backs Hezbollah and Hamas, engage in diplomatic efforts with allies and other powers. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met a senior official from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement in Oman, his latest stop on a regional diplomatic tour. Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned of “a regional war that will be costly for everyone,” during a meeting with Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Monday. Israel is still weighing its response to an October 1 missile attack by Iran, launched in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Tehran-aligned militant leaders in the region, along with a general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. A counterattack would only target Iranian military sites, not nuclear or oil facilities, US media reported Monday citing US officials.

Federation of Arab Journalists Condemns Israeli Crimes against Journalists in Syria, Lebanon, Palestine
Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2024
The Federation of Arab Journalists has condemned the crimes carried out by the Israeli occupation forces against journalists in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. In a statement, it called on all Arab countries to support journalists in these three nations to expose Israeli crimes to the global public.
According to SPA, the federation expressed its full solidarity with journalists in these countries. It also urged international media organizations, the UN Security Council, and international human rights organizations to condemn the blatant aggression and the war of extermination being waged by the Israeli army against journalists in these countries and provide protection for them.

Security Council Voices 'Strong Concern' for UNIFIL after Israeli Attacks
Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2024
The UN Security Council expressed “strong concern” Monday as Israel has fired on and wounded UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon during intensified fighting, reiterating its support for their role in supporting security in the region. It's the first statement by the U.’s most powerful body since Israel's attacks on the positions of the peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL began last week, drawing international condemnation. According to The Associated Press, UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix told reporters that Secretary-General António Guterres confirmed Monday that peacekeepers will remain in all their positions even as Israel has urged the peacekeepers to move 5 kilometers north during its ground invasion in Lebanon. Israel has been escalating its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon across a UN-drawn boundary between the two countries.
The Security Council statement, issued after emergency closed consultations on Lebanon, did not name either Israel, Lebanon or Hezbollah. Read by Swiss UN Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl, the council's current president, it urges all parties “to respect the safety and security of UNIFIL personnel and UN premises.”US deputy ambassador Robert Wood told reporters that “it’s good that the council can speak with one voice on what’s on the minds of all people around the world right now — and it’s the situation in Lebanon.”The council's statement sends a message to the Lebanese people “that the council cares, that the council is watching this issue and that the council today spoke with one voice,” Wood said. Council members also expressed “deep concern” at civilian casualties and suffering, the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the rising number of internally displaced people.More than 1,400 people in Lebanon, including civilians, medics and Hezbollah fighters, have been killed and 1.2 million displaced in the past month. Around 60 Israelis have been killed in Hezbollah strikes in the past year. Israel says it wants to drive the group away from the border so some 60,000 displaced Israelis can return to their homes.
The Security Council statement called on all parties to abide by international humanitarian law, which requires the protection of civilians. Council members also called for the full implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war “and recognized the need for further practical measures to achieve that outcome.”That resolution calls for the Lebanese army to deploy throughout the south and for all armed groups, including Hezbollah, to be disarmed — neither of which has happened in the past 18 years.
Lacroix, the undersecretary-general for peace operations, told reporters after his closed briefing to the Security Council that five UNIFIL peacekeepers have been injured in recent days and that the UN has protested to Israel. Israel has indicated “investigations will be carried out regarding some of these incidents ... and we will see what comes out of this,” he said. Israeli Army spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani asserted Sunday that Israel has tried to maintain constant contact with UNIFIL and that any instance of UN forces being harmed will be investigated at “the highest level.”Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for UNIFIL to heed Israel’s warnings to evacuate, accusing them of “providing a human shield” to Hezbollah. “We regret the injury to the UNIFIL soldiers, and we are doing everything in our power to prevent this injury. But the simple and obvious way to ensure this is simply to get them out of the danger zone,” he said Sunday in a video addressed to the UN secretary-general, who has been banned from entering Israel. Lacroix on Monday stressed that all parties have a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of the peacekeepers. He also said it’s important that the peacekeepers stay in their positions “because we all hope there will be a return to the negotiation table, and that there will be finally a real effort to full implementation of resolution 1701.”

Lebanon: Mikati Says Diplomatic Efforts 'Intensify' to Secure Ceasefire
Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2024
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Thursday said that diplomatic efforts are ongoing to pressure Israel into halting its offensive on Lebanon. He said that contacts have “intensified” in the past hours ahead of a session of the United Nations Security Council, aiming once again to achieve a ceasefire and increase pressure to stop the "Israeli aggression" on Lebanon. He noted that “discussions are ongoing between the United States and France, which has requested the convening of the Security Council, with the goal of reviving a declaration for a temporary ceasefire to facilitate the resumption of talks on political solutions." Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas’ surprise attack into Israel ignited the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allied with Iran, and Hezbollah says its attacks are aimed at aiding the Palestinians. Israel has carried out airstrikes in response and the conflict steadily escalated, erupting into a full-fledged war last month. Israel has inflicted a punishing wave of blows against Hezbollah in recent weeks and says it will keep fighting until tens of thousands of displaced Israeli citizens can return to their homes in the north. More than 1,300 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced since the fighting escalated in mid-September.

UN Refugee Agency Says 25% of Lebanon under Israeli Evacuation Orders
Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2024
Israel, which began incursions into south Lebanon two weeks ago to battle Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, has issued military evacuation orders affecting more than a quarter of the country, the UN refugee agency said on Tuesday. The figures underscore the heavy price Lebanese are paying as Israel steps up its campaign to defeat Hezbollah and destroy its infrastructure in their one-year conflict. The UN refugee agency's Middle East Director Rema Jamous Imseis told a press briefing in Geneva that new Israeli evacuation orders to 20 villages in southern Lebanon meant that over a quarter of the country was now affected. "People are heeding these calls to evacuate, and they're fleeing with almost nothing." Israeli strikes have killed at least 2,309 people over the last year, the Lebanese government said, and more than 1.2 million people have been displaced.
The majority have been killed since late September when Israel expanded its military campaign. The toll does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Around 50 Israelis, both soldiers and civilians, have been killed, according to Israel. Israel says its operation in Lebanon aims to secure the return of tens of thousands of its residents forced to flee their homes in northern Israel due to Hezbollah attacks. Israel expanded its bombing campaign in Lebanon on Monday, killing at least 22 people - most of them women - in an airstrike in the north on a house where displaced people were seeking refuge from Israeli strikes further south, health officials said.
"What we are hearing is that amongst the 22 people killed were 12 women and two children," UN human rights office spokesperson Jeremy Laurence told the same press briefing in response to a question about Monday's strike on Christian-majority Aito.
"We understand it was a four-story residential building that was struck. With these factors in mind, we have real concerns with respect to IHL (International Humanitarian Law), so the laws of war, and the principles of distinction proportion and proportionality," he said, calling for an investigation into the incident. Rescue workers were still pulling bodies out of the rubble in Aito on Tuesday, local media reported, following one of the deadliest strikes on displaced families in Lebanon, after strikes earlier this month on the southern Lebanese town of Ain Deleb that left more than 30 dead.
Israel has not commented on the Aito strike, but has repeatedly said it takes all possible precautions to avoid civilian casualties.
UN CONCERNED OVER PEACEKEEPER ATTACKS
So far the main focus of Israel's military operations in Lebanon has been in the Bekaa Valley in the east, the suburbs of Beirut, and in the south, where UN peacekeepers have said that Israeli fire has hit their bases on numerous occasions and wounded peacekeepers.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, visiting a military base in central Israel where four soldiers were killed on Sunday by a Hezbollah drone strike, said Israel would continue to attack the movement "without mercy, everywhere in Lebanon – including Beirut".
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah resumed a year ago when the group began firing rockets at Israel in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war.
Meanwhile, the Middle East remains on high alert for Israel to retaliate against Iran for an Oct. 1 barrage of missiles launched in response to Israel's assaults on Lebanon.
Netanyahu's office said Israel would listen to the United States but would decide its actions according to its own national interest. The statement was attached to a Washington Post article which said Netanyahu had told President Joe Biden's administration that Israel would strike Iranian military, not nuclear or oil, targets - suggesting a more limited counterstrike aimed at preventing a full-scale war. Qatar's emir accused Israel on Tuesday of exploiting "international inaction" on the Middle East crisis to move beyond its "aggression" in Gaza to build more illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and send troops into Lebanon. "Israel deliberately chose to expand the aggression to implement pre-planned schemes in other locations such as the West Bank and Lebanon because it sees that the scope for that is available," Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani said in his annual speech to open Qatar's Shura Council. Qatar, the United States and Egypt have repeatedly mediated in an attempt to end the war in Gaza, which broke out a year ago when fighters from the Palestinian group Hamas burst into Israel from Gaza and killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's offensive has killed more than 42,000 people in Gaza, turned the enclave into piles of cement and twisted metal and created severe shortages of food, water and fuel.

Hezbollah Deputy Chief Says Group Aims to Inflict Pain on Israel
Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2024
Hezbollah's deputy chief Naim Qassem said on Tuesday the Iran-backed group would inflict "pain" on Israel but he also called for a ceasefire as a conflict rages between them in south Lebanon. Israel has been turning up the heat on Hezbollah since it began incursions into the region after killing Hezbollah leaders and commanders, including its veteran secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah last month in the biggest blow to the group in decades. "The solution is a ceasefire, we are not speaking from a position of weakness, if the Israelis do not want that, we will continue," Qassem said in a recorded speech, Reuters reported. "But after the ceasefire, according to an indirect agreement, the settlers would return to the north and other steps will be drawn up." There was no immediate comment from Israel, which says its operation in Lebanon aims to secure the return of tens of thousands of residents forced to flee their homes in northern Israel because of Hezbollah attacks. Qassem said Hezbollah reserved the right to attack anywhere in Israel because its enemy has done the same in Lebanon. He said more Israelis will be displaced and "hundreds of thousands, even more than two million, will be in danger at any time, at any hour, on any day".
"We will focus on targeting the Israeli military and its centers and barracks," he said. On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue to attack Hezbollah "without mercy, everywhere in Lebanon – including Beirut". Israel has issued military evacuation orders affecting more than a quarter of Lebanon, the UN refugee agency said on Tuesday, two weeks after the Israeli military began incursions into south Lebanon to battle Hezbollah. The figures underscore the heavy price Lebanese are paying as Israel tries to defeat the Iran-backed militant group and destroy its infrastructure in their one-year-old conflict. The UN refugee agency's Middle East director, Rema Jamous Imseis, said new Israeli evacuation orders to 20 villages in southern Lebanon meant that over a quarter of the country was now affected. "People are heeding these calls to evacuate, and they're fleeing with almost nothing," she told a briefing in Geneva. Israeli strikes have killed at least 2,309 people over the last year, the Lebanese government said, and more than 1.2 million people have been displaced. The majority have been killed since late September when Israel expanded its military campaign. Around 50 Israelis, both soldiers and civilians, have been killed, according to Israel. Israel expanded its bombing campaign in Lebanon on Monday, killing at least 22 people in an airstrike in the north on a house where displaced people were seeking refuge from Israeli strikes further south, health officials said.
"What we are hearing is that amongst the 22 people killed were 12 women and two children," UN human rights office spokesperson Jeremy Laurence said of Monday's strike on Christian-majority Aitou. He called for an investigation into the strike which he said has raised concerns with respect to "the laws of war". Rescue workers were still pulling bodies out of the rubble in Aitou on Tuesday, local media reported. Israel has not commented on the Aitou strike, but says it takes all possible precautions to avoid civilian casualties.
CONCERN AT ATTACKS ON PEACEKEEPERS
The main focus of Israel's military operations in Lebanon has been in the Bekaa Valley in the east, the suburbs of Beirut and in the south, where UN peacekeepers say Israeli fire has hit their bases on numerous occasions and wounded peacekeepers. Israel's military said about 20 projectiles crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory after sirens sounded in the Haifa Bay and Upper Galilee areas, and that some were intercepted. The mass displacement in Lebanon during Israel's war has revived the specter of sectarian strife. Lebanon's population consists of more than a dozen religious sects, with political representation divided along sectarian lines. Religious divisions fuelled the ferocity of a 1975-1990 civil war that killed some 150,000 people and drew in neighbouring states. The US has stood by Israel in its conflicts despite concerns over civilian casualties. The Pentagon said components for an advanced anti-missile system began arriving in Israel on Monday and that it would be fully operational in the near future, according to a statement on Tuesday. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict resumed a year ago when the militant group began firing rockets at Israel in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war. The Middle East, meanwhile, remains on alert for Israel to retaliate against Iran for an Oct. 1 barrage of missiles launched in response to Israel's assaults on Lebanon.

Hezbollah deputy chief says group aims to inflict pain on Israel
Reuters/October 15, 2024
Hezbollah's deputy secretary general Naim Qassem said on Tuesday his group has adopted "a new calculation" to inflict pain on Israel, even as he called for a ceasefire. Israel launched a major offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah on Sept. 23 with the aim of allowing residents of northern Israel to return to homes they had been forced to evacuate during a year of cross-border rocket fire from Lebanon. "The solution is a ceasefire, we are not speaking from a position of weakness," Qassem said. "If the Israelis do not want that, we will continue," he added in a broadcast speech.
Qassem said that residents of northern Israel would be able to return home after a ceasefire deal is reached through an indirect agreement. But he threatened that more Israelis will be displaced if the war continues, saying that "the number of uninhabited settlements will increase, and hundreds of thousands, even more than two million, will be in danger at any time, at any hour, on any day". He added that since Israel has attacked all over Lebanon, the group has the right to attack anywhere in Israel. "We will focus on targeting the Israeli military and its centres and barracks," he said. Israeli strikes have killed at least 2,309 people in Lebanon over the last year, mainly in the last few weeks, according to the Lebanese government. More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced.

US assured Lebanon that Israel would ease Beirut strikes, Lebanese prime minister says
Reuters/October 15, 2024
U.S. officials assured Lebanon that Israel would tamp down its strikes on Beirut and its southern suburbs, Lebanon's caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati said on Tuesday. "During our contacts with the American authorities last week, we received a kind of guarantee to reduce the escalation in the southern suburbs and Beirut," Mikati said in a written statement distributed by his office. He did not provide further details on the assurances but said that Washington was "serious about pressuring Israel to reach a ceasefire". Israel has not struck the southern suburbs of Lebanon's capital since late last week after hitting the area on a near nightly basis for weeks in attacks that destroyed buildings and killed scores of people. A number of senior figures from Hezbollah have been targeted in the area, including leader Hassan Nasrallah killed in a massive strike on Sept. 27. Mikati said international efforts were still underway to reach a ceasefire that would put an end to hostilities between the Israeli military and Hezbollah. The hostilities had been playing out along Lebanon's southern border with Israel since October last year in parallel with Israel's offensive in Gaza that was triggered by Hamas' attack on southern Israel. Israel dramatically escalated its bombing campaign of Lebanon in recent weeks, including Hezbollah's strongholds of south Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut and the eastern Bekaa region. Other areas of Lebanon have also been hit.

Israel's demining near Golan signals wider front against Hezbollah, sources say
Suleiman Al-Khalidi and Maya Gebeily/Reuters/October 15, 2024
In a sign Israel may expand its ground operations against Hezbollah while bolstering its own defences, its troops have cleared landmines and established new barriers on the frontier between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a demilitarised strip bordering Syria, security sources and analysts said. The move suggests Israel may seek to strike Hezbollah for the first time from further east along Lebanon's border, at the same time creating a secure area from which it can freely reconnoitre the armed group and prevent infiltration, the sources said. While demining activity has been reported, sources who spoke to Reuters - including a Syrian soldier stationed in south Syria, a Lebanese security official and a U.N. peacekeeping official - revealed additional unreported details that showed Israel was moving the fence separating the DMZ towards the Syrian side and digging more fortifications in the area. Military action involving raids from the Israeli-occupied Golan and possibly from the demilitarised zone that separates it from Syrian territory could widen the conflict pitting Israel against Hezbollah and its ally Hamas that has already drawn in Iran and risks sucking in the U.S. Israel has been trading fire with Tehran-backed Hezbollah since the group began launching missiles across Lebanon's border in support of Hamas after its deadly attack on southern Israel triggered Israel's military campaign on Gaza. Now, in addition to Israeli aerial strikes that have caused Hezbollah significant damage in the past month, the group is under Israeli ground assault from the south and faces Israeli naval shelling from the Mediterranean to the west. By extending its front in the east, Israel could tighten its squeeze on Hezbollah's arms supply routes, some of which cut across Syria, Lebanon's eastern neighbour and an ally of Iran. Navvar Saban, a conflict analyst at the Istanbul-based Harmoon Center, said the operations in the Golan, a hilly, 1,200 square km (460 square mile) plateau that also overlooks Lebanon and borders Jordan, appeared to be an attempt to "prepare the groundwork" for a broader offensive in Lebanon. "Everything happening in Syria is to serve Israel's strategy in Lebanon - hitting supply routes, hitting warehouses, hitting people linked to the supply lines to Hezbollah," he said. Israel's mine removal and engineering works have accelerated in recent weeks, according to a Syrian intelligence officer, a Syrian soldier positioned in southern Syria, and three senior Lebanese security sources who spoke to Reuters for this story.
FORTIFICATIONS
The sources said the demining had intensified as Israel began ground incursions on Oct. 1 to fight Hezbollah along the mountainous terrain separating northern Israel from southern Lebanon around 20 km (12 miles) to the west. In the same period, Israel has ramped up strikes on Syria, including its capital and the border with Lebanon, and Russian military units -- stationed in Syria's south in support of Syrian troops there -- have withdrawn from at least one observation post overlooking the demilitarised area, the two Syrian sources and one of the Lebanese sources said.
All of the sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their monitoring of Israel's military operations in the Golan, most of which was seized by Israel from Syria in 1967. The Syrian soldier stationed in the south said Israel was pushing the fence separating the occupied Golan and the demilitarised zone (DMZ) further out and erecting their own fortifications near Syria "so there would not be any infiltration in the event this front flares up." The soldier said Israel appeared to be creating "a buffer zone" in the DMZ. A second senior Lebanese security source told Reuters that Israeli troops had dug a new trench near the DMZ in October. One senior Lebanese security source said the demining operations could allow Israeli troops to "encircle" Hezbollah from the east. The DMZ has been home for the last five decades to the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), mandated to oversee disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces after a 1973 war. A U.N. peacekeeping official in New York said that UNDOF had "recently observed some construction activity being carried out by Israeli military forces in the vicinity of the area of separation," but did not have further details.
RUSSIA LEAVES OVERLOOK POINT
Asked about the demining, the Israeli military said it "does not comment on operational plans" and it "is currently fighting against the terrorist organization Hezbollah in order to allow for the safe return of northern residents to their homes." UNDOF, Russia, and Syria did not respond to requests for comment by Reuters. A report to the U.N. Security Council on the activities of UNDOF, dated Sept. 24 and seen by Reuters on Oct. 4, cited violations on both sides of the demilitarized zone.Russian troops, meanwhile, have left the Tal Hara outpost, the highest point in Syria's southern Daraa governorate and a strategic overlook point, according to the two Syrian sources and one of the Lebanese sources. The Russians had left because of understandings with the Israelis to prevent a clash, a Syrian military officer said. Syrian authorities, whose country is part of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance', have sought to remain out of the fray since regional tensions soared after Hamas's Oct. 7 assault last year. Reuters reported in January that Assad had been discouraged from taking any action in support of Hamas after he received threats from Israel. Hezbollah too had "steered away" from building up any forces in the Syrian-held Golan. Syria's army has not made additional deployments, the Syrian military intelligence officer told Reuters.

UN says deadly Israeli strike in northern Lebanon should be investigated
Kareem Chehayeb And Bassem Mroue/The Associated Press/October 15, 2024
An Israeli airstrike on an apartment building in northern Lebanon that killed at least 22 people needs to be independently investigated, the United Nations’ human rights office said Tuesday. “We have real concerns with respect to … the laws of war,” Jeremy Laurence, a spokesperson for the U.N.'s human rights office said a day after the strike, as rescue workers searching through the rubble found more bodies and remains. Laurence said the U.N. had received credible reports that a dozen women and children were among the dead. The Israeli military said it “struck a target belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization" and that it would look into reports of civilian deaths. The apartment building hit in the airstrike was in the small village of Aito, in the country’s Christian heartland and far from Hezbollah’s main areas of influence in Lebanon's south and east. The strike was a shock to residents, and it exacerbated fears that Israel would expand its offensive deeper into Lebanon. “I heard a loud noise, like a boom,” said Dany Alwan, who lives next door. “We ran outside, I saw the dust and the smoke and the rubble. There was a body here, another one there. It was a really ugly and painful scene.”The three-story building had been rented out to the Hijazi family, which fled their home in the southern village of Aitaroun, according to Elie Alwan, Dany Alwan's brother and the building's owner. Some 1.2 million people have fled southern and eastern Lebanon, where the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has been concentrated.
As rescue workers rummaged through the debris on Tuesday, they found the body of a child, and later a small leg and other remains that they put together in a white bag. The Lebanese military watched as a bulldozer cleared heaps of twisted steel, destroyed olive trees, and crushed rocks.
Hezbollah's acting leader vows to step up strikes against Israel
Earlier on Tuesday, the acting leader of Hezbollah said the militant group would fire rockets into more areas of Israel until it ceases its airstrikes and ends its ground invasion of Lebanon. Naim Kassem said Hezbollah is focused on “hurting the enemy,” comments made in a pre-recorded televised speech delivered on the same day the United States said it sent a small team of troops to Israel to support an American-made missile-defense system. Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israel over the past year in support of Hamas' war with Israel in Gaza. Tens of thousands of northern Israelis have been displaced from their homes by those attacks — and Israel has said its war with Hezbollah is aimed at stopping those rockets so families can return home. On Tuesday, Kassem signaled that Hezbollah would ramp up attacks further south in Israel, which it has already done by targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa. Kassem has headed the militant group since Sept. 27, when its longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike. Hezbollah began targeting Israel with rockets on Oct. 8, 2023, a day after the Hamas attack on Israel that left 1,200 dead and 250 as hostages in Gaza.
Israel's ensuing war against Hamas has left more than 42,000 people dead in Gaza, according to local health officials. They do not differentiate between fighters and civilians, but have said a little more than half the dead are women and children. Hezbollah has insisted it will continue to target Israel until a cease-fire in Gaza is reached.
“We cannot separate Lebanon from Palestine, or Palestine from the world,” Kassem said. Also on Tuesday, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder announced the arrival of U.S. troops in Israel on Monday. The team will operate a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery there to defend against ballistic missile attacks from Iran, which backs both Hezbollah and Hamas, and has launched two missile attacks on Israel. “Over the coming days, additional U.S. military personnel and THAAD battery components will continue to arrive in Israel,” Ryder said.
Iran has warned U.S. troops would be in harm’s way if they launch another attack. In Lebanon, Israel's bombardment and ground invasion have displaced more than 400,000 children in the past three weeks, according to Ted Chaiban, deputy executive director at UNICEF, the U.N. children's agency.
Kareem Chehayeb And Bassem Mroue, The Associated Press

Israel's row with Unifil driven by long distrust
Wyre Davies - Middle East Correspondent/BBC/October 15, 2024
Tensions between Israel and the UN over its peacekeeping operations in southern Lebanon have escalated in recent days – although the confrontations have their roots in years of mistrust and recriminations. In the latest standoff, the head of UN peacekeeping operations rejected a call on Monday by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the forces known as Unifil to pull out of “combat areas”. The UN force was established in 1978 after the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, and had its role bolstered in 2006 to monitor and keep the peace there after that year’s war between Israel and Hezbollah. I’ve filmed with UN peacekeepers patrolling the 120 km (75-mile) “Blue Line” – the UN-recognised boundary that separates Israel and Lebanon - and have seen the dangerous work of demining 5 million square metres of land in southern Lebanon, where Unifil has destroyed more than 51,000 mines and unexploded bombs left over after previous wars. But Israel accuses Unifil of falling woefully short in one of its other key responsibilities. Under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war, the UN was meant to create an area in southern Lebanon free of armed forces other than those of the Lebanese army.
“The UN is a failed organization and UNIFIL is a useless force that failed to enforce Resolution 1701, failed to prevent Hezbollah from establishing itself in southern Lebanon," said Israeli cabinet minister Eli Cohen in a recent social media post. Israel accuses Unifil of having turned a blind eye to Hezbollah’s extensive regrouping and rearming, as the Iranian-backed Shia organisation grew into a formidable fighting force – even bigger than the official Lebanese army. Hezbollah is now proscribed as a terrorist organisation by Israel, the UK, US and other countries. According to the pro-Israel pressure group, UN Watch, Unifil “did nothing” as “Hezbollah was digging tunnels to invade Israel, kidnap & attack Israeli civilians… and embedding missiles in civilian homes.”UN Watch and the Israeli Government’s Media office have published several posts in recent days alleging that Hezbollah had been able to operate freely and within clear sight of UN bases and posts along or near the Blue Line. Tunnels, heavy weaponry and equipment in preparation for attack on Israel have all been discovered after Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon. That, said a belligerent Benjamin Netanyahu, in a video message addressed directly to the UN secretary general this week is why Israel is demanding that Unifil forces withdraw from conflict areas in southern Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister urged Antonio Guterres not to allow Hezbollah to use UN peacekeepers as “human shields” and said the secretary general’s refusal to evacuate the Unifil soldiers makes them "hostages of Hezbollah... endangering them and the lives of our [Israeli] soldiers".Inside Israel's combat zone in southern Lebanon.Israel was widely criticised after five Unifil peacekeepers were injured following the ground invasion on 1 October. In several incidents Israeli fire has hit clearly marked and unmistakable Unifil bases, and in one case Israeli tanks forced their way into a Unifil compound where they initially refused demands to leave. Israel has offered explanations for those incidents but, again, says the way to avoid a repetition is for Unifil troops to withdraw from the area.
That has been met with a firm “No”.
A Unifil spokesperson accused the Israeli military of “deliberately” firing on its positions and 40 of the nations that contribute troops to Unifil said last week that they “strongly condemn recent attacks” on the peacekeepers. The UN Security Council, meeting in New York, also “urged all parties to respect the safety and security of Unifil personnel and UN premises,” said Switzerland’s UN Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl. She added: “They reiterated their support to Unifil, underscoring its role in supporting regional stability.”There are UN bodies also trying to hold Israel to account in Gaza, where for the last week Israeli troops have been involved in an enhanced offensive to drive remaining Hamas fighters from northern areas, including the Jabalia refugee camp. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say that they have issued clear orders for thousands of civilians to leave the conflict zone for so-called “safe areas”. But with as many as 400,000 people trapped in the north, few areas in Gaza can be considered “safe” and, according to many reports, more than 300 people have been killed in Israel’s latest offensive. That led the United Nations Human Rights Office to issue a strongly worded statement saying that the IDF was “trapping tens of thousands of Palestinians, including civilians, in their homes and shelters with no access to food or other life-sustaining necessities.”The statement also accused Israel of cutting off the area completely from the rest of Gaza and said that Israeli troops have fired on civilians trying to flee the area which could amount to a “war crime.”Israel says it is sending more food and medical supplies into northern Gaza and that Hamas is actively encouraging, even preventing, civilians from leaving Jabalia. For many in the current Israeli administration, the bottom line is that – for many years – the United Nations and its organisations have been inherently and structurally anti-Israel Israel is now taking unprecedented legal action against UNRWA – the UN body established more than 70 years ago to support Palestine refugees across the Middle East, including Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has long-accused Unrwa – the UN body established more than 70 years ago to support Palestine refugees across the Middle East, including Gaza and the West Bank - of actively acting against its interests. It says Unrwa personnel were directly involved in Hamas’s 7 October attacks, when thousands of gunmen broke through the border fence from Gaza and killed about 1,200 people in southern Israel and took another 251 back to Gaza as hostages.
Palestinians run towards breached fence between Gaza and Israel (07/10/24)
Israel has accused Unrwa members of being involved in the 7 October attacks [Reuters]
The number of Unrwa personnel accused of participating in the attacks was 12, out of a 13,000-strong workforce. Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, told the Security Council that Unrwa had allowed Hamas to infiltrate its ranks and that “this infiltration is so ingrained, so institutional, that the organization is simply beyond repair.”To that end, a committee in Israel’s parliament has now approved legislation that would ban Unrwa from operating in Israeli territory and end all contact between the Israeli government and the agency. Unrwa's head responded, saying that if the legislation is adopted, the body’s humanitarian operations in Gaza and the West Bank may “disintegrate.”Philippe Lazzarini said that senior Israeli officials were “bent on destroying Unrwa” which is the main provider of humanitarian aid in Gaza. It runs schools, primary healthcare centres and social services for the vast majority of Gaza’s population of 2.2 million people. But criticisms from the UN and its member nations will not deter Israel from achieving its military objectives in Gaza and Lebanon, nor in the occupied West Bank as long, crucially, as it enjoys the backing of the United States. Remarkably, Israel has gone as far as barring the UN Secretary General from entering the country. Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, saying that Antonio Guterres was now persona non-grata after not "unequivocally" condemning Iran's missile attack on Israel. The move prompted Mr Guterres to insist that he “strongly condemn[ed]” the attack, although the "ban" has not been lifted. While Israel might owe its very existence to the UN – the body that voted it into being in 1947 - its relationship with the organisation has never been so bad.

France backs UN peacekeepers in Lebanon amid Israel's Hezbollah offensive
RFI/October 15, 2024
France's armed forces minister has stressed that the United Nations Interim Force(UNIFL) in Lebanon will remain in place as Israel expands its targets across the country in a bid to neutralise the Iran-backed militant group, Hezbollah. Speaking on Monday, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said that UNIFL forces "are destined to stay" in Lebanon, despite being allegedly targeted by Israeli forces who have launched incursions into Lebanese territory. "The day the guns fall silent, there will always be a Blue Line [separating Lebanon from Israel], there will be Resolution 1701 or a new resolution, there will always be a zone that has to be neutralised," he explained on France 5 television. "That's why the mission is here to stay. It was the United Nations that deployed these forces, and it is up to the United Nations to withdraw them ... unless the various contributing nations agree otherwise," he added. His statement comes as European countries contributing to UNIFIL – France, Italy, Spain and Ireland – are due to meet by videoconference on Wednesday to agree on their positions. Lecornu's comments echoed those of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who said that "there will be no withdrawal of UNIFIL".
The UN Security Council has expressed strong concern over peacekeeping positions coming under fire amid clashes between the Israeli military and Hezbollah. However, the UNIFIL force's spokesman posted on X that the peacekeeping mission would stay.

Amid Worrying Uncertainty, the Lebanese Are Searching for a Homeland
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2024
The future seems worrying, or rather catastrophic, to the Lebanese who have found themselves becoming "burdensome guests" in their own country. It is a real tragedy that over a million Lebanese have been displaced and uprooted within a few weeks following the Israeli military’s "advice" with an "or else"!!
The truth of the matter is that whether one has been displaced or still has a roof over their head and still lives between the walls of their home around them, the future is uncertain. The future is indeed worrying when the likes of Antony Blinken and Amos Hochstein on one side, and Abbas Araqchi and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on the other, "toying" with it. Both are waiting, amid the countdown to the US presidential elections and the accelerating search for a "successor" to Iran’s Supreme Leader. I remind those who may have forgotten that Araqchi had been secretly negotiating an agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program with a US delegation led by William Burns, the current Director of the CIA, and Jake Sullivan, the current National Security Advisor, a few years ago in the Omani capital, Muscat! The problem, for the people of Lebanon, is that this skilled negotiator prohibits others from taking the kinds of steps he allows himself to take.
Araqchi visited Lebanon a few days ago, as it was being ravaged by a destructive and deadly Israeli offensive. Instead of helping to "contain the situation" by calling for calm and sensible diplomacy, he undermined the efforts of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (the top Shiite official in the country) and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. His visit was made after the two men had called for the implementation of the UN Resolutions tied to Lebanon and separating - albeit temporarily - the Lebanese and Palestinian arenas. In light of what has happened and is happening in Lebanon - on the human, military, and political fronts - sensible politicians and observers understand the country’s need to catch its breath and reduce tensions through responsible political initiatives. These initiatives should seek to safeguard whatever remnants of the state can be salvaged and to ensure that the Shiite community - a large segment of the Lebanese population that feels psychologically wounded, internally besieged, and externally threatened - is not isolated.
Berri, for those who do not know him, hails from the resilient and troubled South, whose resilience has been tested decade after decade, generation after generation. This seasoned politician has effectively allowed the country to "absorb shocks" for decades as Tehran repeatedly thrust Lebanon into one misadventure after another, and the Arab region to turmoil and strife. History has shown that the ultimate beneficiary of this turmoil is none other than Israel. Unfortunately, since Iran effectively took the reins in Iraq, it has managed to reshape the landscape of the Near East, creating sectarian psychological chasms between the communities of the region. These chasms quickly translated into civil wars, sectarian sensitivities, divisions, assassinations, and displacement. Moreover, through its inciteful rhetoric, which resonated with a disillusioned Arab audience, Iran laid the groundwork for exacerbating extremism, even through the frontlines with Israel. Indeed, opportunities for moderation in the region have withered away like autumn leaves. Meanwhile, fascist demagogues and messianic adventurists like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have strengthened their position in the fanatical Israeli right, so much so that this is moving forward with places for "population transfer" policies under the leadership of a corrupt opportunist, Benjamin Netanyahu. On Saturday, US Secretary of State Blinken reassured us - and we thank him for it - that Washington supports the Lebanese state's efforts to assert itself against Hezbollah, without forgetting, of course, to affirm "Israel's right to defend itself" against the party!
Moreover, in what seems to be an old-new American pitch for an Israeli-Lebanese peace agreement - on Netanyahu's terms, of course - Blinken continued by saying: "We all have a strong interest in trying to help create an environment in which people can go back to their homes, their safety and security ... Israel has a clear and very legitimate interest in doing that. The people of Lebanon want the same thing. We believe that the best way to get there is through a diplomatic understanding, one that we've been working on for some time, and one that we focus on right now."
Blinken concluded by emphasizing that Washington wants to help the Lebanese state build itself up after Hezbollah’s long-held sway. Personally, I believe that the vast majority of the Lebanese population wants to see the "state" take control of the political scene sooner rather than later. The Lebanese want the state to take control, but, as the saying goes, "the devil is in the details!" To begin with, Hezbollah’s condition is shrouded in uncertainty. It is not yet clear when the party will manage to rebuild its political apparatus and regain its capacity to take the initiative or operate independently of Tehran's dictates.
Also, the "state" that most Lebanese may be dreaming of is not necessarily the same "state" that Netanyahu's government seeks and that Blinken may have been hinting at. Moreover, even if we were to assume that Washington is willing and able to play the role of a "fair mediator" in this regard, previous US initiatives and deals are not encouraging... not in Lebanon, Syria, or Iraq, let alone Palestine! To conclude, let us assume that Blinken, Hochstein, and behind them, President Joe Biden, are approaching this matter with the seriousness and fairness we hope for... what guarantees that a different US administration - one that could emerge next month - would stay the course of the current administration, even if it was set by figures considered to be friends of Israel... like Blinken and Hochstein?

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 15-16/2024
US threatens Israel: Resolve humanitarian crisis in Gaza or face arms embargo - report
Jerusalem Post/October 15/2024
Failure to rectify the situation would lead to consequences for Israeli aid under American law, the White House said. The US told Israel that it would impose an arms embargo on the Jewish state if it does not resolve the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, N12 reported on Tuesday. The White House reportedly expressed deep concern over the "deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Gaza in recent weeks" and called for urgent steps within the next month to reverse this trend. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant received a letter from the Biden Administration outlining American positions on Gaza, N12 noted. The letter reportedly called for Israel to be held to its March 2024 commitment "to allow and not prevent the transfer of American humanitarian aid or aid supported by the administration in Gaza." As part of this commitment, the State Department would "conduct an audit in accordance with the aid law." The letter reportedly highlighted that since March, the lowest amount of aid entering Gaza was recorded in September.
Consequences under the law
It added that Israel had 30 days to rectify the situation and that failure to do so would lead to consequences for Israeli aid, as per American law. The announcement was made shortly after the US decided to deploy its THAAD missile defense system to Israel. French President Emmanuel Macron has also called for an arms embargo on Israel.

IDF should target Iranian oil fields, Lapid tells 'Post' - exclusive
Jerusalem Post/October 15/2024
Israel has reportedly assured the US it would hit Iranian conventional military targets rather than nuclear facilities or oil fields. The IDF retaliatory strike on Iran should target the country’s oil fields because of the negative impact that would have on the Islamic Republic’s economy, Yesh Atid Party head and leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. “We should start with the oil fields,” Lapid said as he sat in his Tel Aviv office. He spoke as Israel had reportedly ceded to a US request not to target Iran’s oil fields or nuclear sites during its anticipated retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on the Jewish state on October 1. Israel has reportedly assured the US it would hit Iranian conventional military targets rather than nuclear facilities or oil fields. The US has been concerned that such a strike would impact global oil prices, a move that could harm the US economy in the critical last weeks before the American presidential election. “I’m in disagreement with the American administration. I don’t think it will raise significantly the oil prices in the world five minutes before an election,” Lapid stated. The US has been concerned that such a strike would impact global oil prices, a move that could harm the US economy in the critical last weeks before the American presidential election. “I’m in disagreement with the American administration. I don’t think it will raise significantly the oil prices in the world five minutes before an election,” Lapid stated. Lapid’s words were backed up by the International Energy Agency, which said in its monthly report on Tuesday regarding the world oil market that “for now, supply keeps flowing, and in the absence of a major disruption, the market is faced with a sizable surplus in the new year.” It went on to reassure markets “that as supply developments unfold, the IEA stands ready to act if necessary” to cover any supply disruption from Iran. Indeed, oil prices have risen in recent weeks on investor concern that Israel may retaliate against a missile attack from Iran, a major oil exporter and OPEC member, by hitting its oil facilities or nuclear sites. IEA ready to act if needed  But the IEA, which manages industrialized countries’ emergency oil stocks, said public stocks were more than 1.2 billion barrels, and spare capacity in OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, stood at historic highs. Lapid was more cautious when it came to a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel can act alone and it shouldn’t take that option off the table, he said. But at the same time, he said, such a step is best taken together with a “wider coalition” of forces, such as America. The full interview will be published in the Post’s Simchat Torah Magazine on October 23.

In clash with Netanyahu, Macron says Israel PM 'mustn't forget his country created by UN decision'
(AFP)/October 15, 2024
Referring to the resolution adopted in November 1947 by the United Nations General Assembly on the plan to partition Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state, Macron warned Israel’s prime minister not to forget that “his country was created by a UN decision”, a few days after the Israeli ambassador to France was summoned, and Israel repeatedly fired on UN peacekeepers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should not forget his country was created as a result of a resolution adopted by the United Nations, French President Emmanuel Macron told cabinet on Tuesday, urging Israel to abide by UN decisions. Tensions have increased between Netanyahu and Macron with the French leader last week insisting that stopping the export of weapons used by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon was the only way to stop the conflicts. France has also repeatedly denounced Israeli fire against UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, who include a French contingent. “Mr Netanyahu must not forget that his country was created by a decision of the UN,” Macron told the weekly French cabinet meeting, referring to the resolution adopted in November 1947 by the United Nations General Assembly on the plan to partition Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state.

US tells Israel to improve Gaza's humanitarian situation or risk aid, reports say
Humeyra Pamuk and Matt Spetalnick/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/October 15, 2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Israel must take steps in the next month to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza to avoid legal action involving U.S. military aid, according to news reports and sources. "We are writing now to underscore the U.S. government's deep concern over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, and seek urgent and sustained actions by your government this month to reverse this trajectory," they wrote in an Oct. 13 letter to their Israeli counterparts, posted by an Axios reporter on X on Tuesday. A reporter for Israeli News 12 first reported the contents of the letter on X. Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed the letter's veracity to Reuters. The State Department and Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the letter. Representatives for Israel's government also could not be immediately reached for comment. Washington has frequently pressed Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza since the war with Hamas began with the Palestinian militant group's attacks on southern Israel just over a year ago, but the Biden administration has not imposed restrictions on the military aid the United States sends to Israel. The reports come as Israeli forces expand operations into northern Gaza amid ongoing concerns about access to humanitarian aid throughout the enclave and civilians' access to food, water and medicine. Reuters reported earlier this month that food supplies have fallen sharply since Israeli authorities introduced a new customs rule on some humanitarian aid and are separately scaling down deliveries organized by businesses. The United States told the U.N. Security Council last week that Israel needs to address urgently "catastrophic conditions" among Palestinian civilians in the besieged Gaza Strip and stop "intensifying suffering" by limiting aid deliveries. The secretaries' letter outlined specific steps Israel must take within 30 days, including enabling a minimum of 350 trucks to enter Gaza per day, instituting pauses in fighting to allow aid delivery and rescinding evacuation orders to Palestinian civilians when there is no operational need. "Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for U.S. policy ... and relevant U.S. law," the letter said. It cited Section 620i of the Foreign Assistance Act, which prohibits military aid to countries that impede delivery of U.S. humanitarian assistance. It also cited a National Security Memorandum U.S. President Joe Biden issued in February that requires the State Department to report to Congress on whether it finds credible Israel's assurances that its use of U.S. weapons does not violate U.S. or international law. U.S. officials earlier this year said Israel may have violated international humanitarian law using U.S.-supplied weapons during its military operation in Gaza.

Terror shooting attack near Ashdod kills police officer, wounds four, attacker killed
Jerusalem Post/October 15/2024
Shooting terror attack on Highway 4 near Ashdod kills one, wounds several others to varying degrees, including one doctor. Advanced-Staff-Sergeant Major Adir Kadosh died from a gunfire wound while being evacuated to Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital following a shooting terror attack, with another four wounded, on Highway 4 near Ashdod, the hospital reported on Tuesday. The terrorist was a Palestinian from Gaza who entered Israel before the war and has remained in the country for the past year, according to Army Radio. He approached the highway on foot, the police reported. Once he arrived, he shot a police officer, mortally wounding him, and then proceeded to begin shooting at nearby civilians, wounding another four before being eliminated by a civilian. A second wounded arrived at the hospital and was being treated in the hospital's trauma room, and is in moderate condition. The hospital further noted at the time that two more wounded were en route to the hospital, one of which was a doctor who was at the scene assisting the wounded. United Hatzalah volunteer EMTs Doron Sabah, Shmuel Bechor, and Alexi Gretznikov who treated a fatally wounded man at the first scene, reported: "We provided initial treatment at the scene and performed CPR on a 30-year-old man in critical condition. We were also told that other first responders and a United Hatzalah ambulance team treated at two additional locations a person in light to moderate condition who was transported to the hospital by the United Hatzalah ambulance, and a lightly injured man. It was also reported that another driver was injured by shards of glass and continued driving to the Nir Galim intersection." Additionally, a 37-year-old man was evacuated to the Kaplan Medical Center in Rehovot, the hospital reported. The man was moderately wounded from a gunshot to the thigh and was undergoing medical treatment in the hospital's shock room. Magen David Adom emergency medical technician Avner Ben David, who arrived at the scene of the attack, said: "We arrived at the scene with large forces and saw a man in his 30s at the side of the road, unconscious, without a pulse or breath, and with gunshot wounds to his body. We began performing resuscitation efforts, loaded him into the intensive care ambulance, and quickly evacuated him to the hospital while continuing resuscitation efforts as his condition was critical."The reports of victims being evacuated follow a police announcement concerning a shooting terror attack on Highway 4 near Ashdod where one person was fatally wounded and several others were wounded to varying degrees. The police further noted that officers from the Yavne station were at the scene working to isolate the area, as well as scan for additional wounded and terrorists.The attacker was eliminated, Israeli media reported, noting that the civilian who killed the terrorist had received his personal firearm approximately three months ago in July as part of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's reform.

U.S. condemns 'horrifying' Israeli attack that set Palestinian tent encampment ablaze
Michael Collins, USA TODAY/October 15, 2024
WASHINGTON – The Biden administration on Tuesday condemned Israeli airstrikes on a hospital compound in the Gaza Strip that ignited a nearby tent encampment where displaced Palestinians had sought refuge. At least four Palestinians were killed and dozens of others, including children, were injured in the Monday night attack, which set tents ablaze and reportedly sent survivors fleeing from one tent to another. Videos appeared to show one man being burned alive. “The images and video of what appear to be displaced civilians burning alive following an Israeli air strike are deeply disturbing and we have made our concerns clear to the Israeli government,” said Sean Savett, a spokesman for the National Security Council. “Israel has a responsibility to do more to avoid civilian casualties — and what happened here is horrifying, even if Hamas was operating near the hospital in an attempt to use civilians as human shields,” Savett said. War in Gaza: Negotiators around the world can't secure a Gaza cease-fire. These moms want to get it done. Palestinians inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a tent camp sheltering displaced people, amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, in Al-Mawasi area in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, October 15, 2024. Palestinians inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a tent camp sheltering displaced people, amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, in Al-Mawasi area in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, October 15, 2024. The Israeli military said the strikes were targeting terrorists operating inside a command and control center in the area of a parking lot adjacent to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah, a Palestinian city in central Gaza where a million people were sheltering. “Shortly after the strike, a fire ignited in the hospital's parking lot, most likely due to secondary explosions,” the Israeli military said in a statement. “The incident is under review.” The statement said the hospital and its functionality were not affected by the strike. The military said it is taking numerous steps to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including the use of precise munitions, aerial surveillance and additional intelligence. Israel-Hamas war: US soldiers arrive in Israel to help thwart Iran missile attacks. The attack came as Israeli forces widened their raid into northern Gaza and tanks reached the north edge of Gaza City, pounding some districts of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood and forcing many families to leave their homes, residents said. Footage circulated on social media showed several tents were set ablaze as some Palestinians tried helplessly to put out the fire. Video showed firefighters and volunteers trying to put out the flames with hoses and buckets of water and medical workers searching through the debris for casualties. Survivors interviewed at the camp told The New York Times that after the strike, they almost instantly felt the heat of a fast-moving fire, fueled by explosions from canisters of cooking gas and flames that fed on plastic tents. They said it was the seventh time the hospital grounds had been hit.

Israel assures US it plans to target Iran’s military, not oil or nuclear sites, source says
Kevin Liptak, CNN/October 15, 2024
Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have assured the United States that a counterstrike on Iran will be limited to military targets rather than oil or nuclear facilities, according to a person familiar with the discussions. President Joe Biden, who has conveyed in public his opposition to striking Tehran’s nuclear and oil facilities, discussed Israel’s plans with Netanyahu during a classified phone call last week. In that conversation, Netanyahu relayed to Biden his plan to hit military targets, the person said. The Washington Post first reported that Netanyahu had reassured Biden of his plans to avoid nuclear and oil targets. Responding to that report, Netanyahu’s office said it will consider US opinions but ultimately decide its response to Iran’s October 1 attack based on its own national interests. And American officials said they were still closely coordinating with Israel as it decides how to respond.
“We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests,” Netanyahu’s office wrote on X. The White House, which hasn’t commented on Netanyahu’s reported message about avoiding nuclear and oil facilities, previously described the phone call between the leaders last week as “productive” and “direct.” It was their first conversation in nearly two months. Israel’s deliberations over how to respond to Iran come at a moment of high tensions in the year-long conflict, which has expanded beyond Gaza into Lebanon. At the White House, officials have worked to limit Israel’s retaliation to the barrage of ballistic missiles, hoping to prevent a wider war. Still, Biden and other top officials have maintained Israel has a right to respond, and have said they were in close coordination with their counterparts as they mulled a decision. A strike on oil fields that could send energy prices soaring would be unwelcome weeks ahead of the US election, officials have said. And hitting Iran’s nuclear facilities could trigger the full-blown regional war that Biden has desperately sought to avoid. American officials have said they expected a measured response from Israel, believing the country did not want an out-of-control conflict with Iran. But Biden’s leverage with Netanyahu has been limited as he has struggled to bring the violence to an end in Gaza and contain a wider war.

US warns Iran to stop plotting against Trump, says US official
Steve Holland/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/October 15/2024
The United States has warned the Iranian government to stop all plotting against Republican Donald Trump and said that Washington would view any attempt on his life as an act of war, a U.S. official said on Monday. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said U.S. President Joe Biden has been briefed regularly on the threats and directed his team to address Iranian plots against Americans. At Biden's direction, top U.S. officials have sent messages to the highest levels of the Iranian government warning Tehran to cease all plotting against Trump and former U.S. officials, the official said. The Iranians have been told that Washington would view it as an act of war if any attempt was carried out against Trump's life, the official said. Iran has denied interfering in U.S. affairs. Tehran, in turn, says Washington has interfered in its affairs for decades, citing events ranging from a 1953 coup against a prime minister to the 2020 killing of its military commander in a U.S. drone strike. In January 2020, Trump ordered a U.S. air strike that killed Iran's then-top military commander, Qassem Soleimani, after receiving intelligence that Soleimani was planning imminent attacks on U.S. diplomats and armed forces in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. Trump, a Republican, is now seeking a return to the White House after losing the 2020 election to Biden. Trump is now in a battle against Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the Nov. 5 election. His campaign said on Sept. 24 that Trump was briefed by U.S. intelligence officials on the alleged threat from Iran. The White House said the United States has been closely tracking Iranian threats against Trump for years and it warned of "severe consequences" if Tehran was to attack any U.S. citizen. "We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority, and we strongly condemn Iran for these brazen threats. Should Iran attack any of our citizens, including those who continue to serve the United States or those who formerly served, Iran will face severe consequences," said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.
He said "appropriate agencies are continuously and promptly providing the former president’s security detail with evolving threat information." "Additionally, President Biden has reiterated his directive that the United States Secret Service should receive every resource, capability, and protective measure required to address those evolving threats to the former president," Savett said.

Previous government planned sanctions against Israeli ministers – Cameron
Christopher McKeon, PA Political Correspondent/October 15, 2024
The previous government was preparing to sanction two Israeli ministers over comments encouraging blocking aid to Gaza, Lord David Cameron has said. Lord Cameron told the BBC on Tuesday that he had been “working up” sanctions against Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir during his final days as foreign secretary.
He described the two men as “extremists” and argued that sanctions would have been a way of putting “pressure” on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act in line with international law. Lord Cameron said: “When you look at what they say, they have said things like encouraging people to stop aid convoys going into Gaza, they have encouraged extreme settlers in the West Bank with the appalling things they have been carrying out.” Asked why the sanctions had not been imposed, Lord Cameron said he had been advised the move would have been too “political” during an election. Mr Smotrich was recently criticised for appearing to suggest it might be “just and moral” to withhold food aid from Gaza, while Mr Ben-Gvir has backed the expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank. The current Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has also condemned both men but declined to commit to sanctioning them when urged to do so during a Commons debate last month. He did, however, suggest that sanctions relating to settler violence in the West Bank would be “kept under close review” during this year’s Labour Party conference.
Lord Cameron urged the Government to “look again at the sanctions issue”, arguing that his was a better way of pressuring Mr Netanyahu than suspending arms exports to Israel. He said: “I thought the Government made a mistake over the arms embargo because, fundamentally, if you are, on the one hand, protecting, helping to protect Israel from a state-on-state attack by Iran, but at the same time you are withholding the export of weapons, that policy makes no sense.” Arguing that it was “right to back Israel’s right to self-defence”, he said that support was not “unconditional” and the Government should be prepared to use its sanctions regime against “extremist” ministers “to say this is not good enough and has to stop”. In February, the Conservative government did sanction four “extremist” Israeli settlers accused of attacking Palestinians in the West Bank.
A Foreign Office spokesperson declined to comment on whether it would sanction the two ministers, saying: “The UK strongly condemns settler violence and inciteful remarks such as those made by Israel’s National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, which threaten the status-quo of the Holy Sites in Jerusalem. “We do not comment on future sanctions designations.”
Downing Street also declined to comment on the possibility of sanctions, but said the Government would “continue to take action to challenge those who undermine a two-state solution”. Foreign Office minister Anneliese Dodds declined to be drawn on Lord Cameron’s remarks when challenged in the Commons during an urgent question on Gaza and Lebanon. Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Calum Miller said the Government should enact the measures against the two Israeli ministers, saying: “No-one can be left unmoved by the level of human suffering we have seen recently on our screens. We need immediate ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon more than ever. “Does the minister agree that now is the time to use our sanctions regime against the extremist ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich?” Mr Miller also called for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be proscribed.
Ms Dodds said: “(Mr Miller) talked about those who have expressed views which are inflammatory or even worse than that, remarks which are appallingly discriminatory, the UK Government has been wholehearted in its condemnation of those remarks. “He asked about sanctions specifically, of course the UK will always keep our sanctions regime closely under review, as he would expect, and we will announce any changes to the House.”
*Labour MP Rachael Maskell (York Central) asked what the Government has done in the last three months following Lord Cameron’s preparatory work, adding: “And also if the Government has commenced looking at work to sanction the Israeli prime minister for his contribution to these war crimes?”

US imposes sanctions on 'sham charity' fundraising for Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
Reuters/October 15, 2024
The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on what it said was a key international fundraiser for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which Washington has designated a terrorist organization. The U.S. Treasury Department, in action taken with Canada, said in a statement it imposed sanctions on the Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network, accusing it of being "a sham charity that serves as an international fundraiser" for the PFLP. The PFLP, which has also taken part in the fight against Israel in Gaza, was designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the U.S. in October 1997 and October 2001, respectively. The Treasury said PFLP uses Samidoun to fundraise in Europe and North America. The group's activities were banned by Germany last year. “Organizations like Samidoun masquerade as charitable actors that claim to provide humanitarian support to those in need, yet in reality divert funds for much-needed assistance to support terrorist groups,” Treasury's acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Bradley Smith, said in the statement. The Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network did not respond immediately to a Reuters request for comment. A member of the PFLP's leadership abroad was also targeted with sanctions on Tuesday. Canada announced the listing of Samidoun as a terrorist entity on Tuesday. “Violent extremism, acts of terrorism or terrorist financing have no place in Canadian society or abroad," Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said in a statement announcing the listing. The Treasury said the PFLP remained active in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, including participating in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, in which 1,200 people were killed and around 250 taken hostage to Gaza, by Israeli tallies. More than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the offensive so far, according to Gaza's health authorities.

UK Sanctions Target Israeli Settler Outposts
Asharq Al Awsat/October 15/2024
Britain on Tuesday sanctioned organizations involved in the construction of Israeli settler outposts in the West Bank, a government update showed, Reuters reported. The sanctions target seven settler outposts or organizations and were taken under Britain's global human rights sanctions regime, the notice showed. Those sanctioned included the AMANA entity, which Britain said was "involved in the construction of illegal settler outposts and providing funding and other economic resources for Israeli settlers involved in threatening and perpetrating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinian communities in the West Bank."

Two drones crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel with no injuries reported, army says
REUTERS/October 16, 2024
CAIRO: Two drones were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israel following sirens that sounded in Upper Galilee, the Israeli military said in a statement early on Wednesday, adding that no injuries were reported.
Fallen targets were identified in the area, the army said

US, UK jets strike Houthi-held Hodeidah for second day
SAEED AL-BATATI/Arab News/October 15, 2024
AL-MUKALLA: US and UK jets launched airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen’s western Hodeidah on Tuesday, the second wave of strikes against the Yemeni militia in the same city within 24 hours. The Houthi-run Al-Masirah channel reported that US and UK aircraft conducted four strikes against targets in Hodeidah’s Al-Luhayyah area, but did not provide any additional information about the targeted locations, casualties or property damage. On Monday, Houthi media reported that US and UK jets had struck the Al-Saleef district in Hodeidah, but provided little information about the targets.
US Central Command, in the campaign against the Houthis, usually reports that its forces target drone and missile launchers, storage facilities, as well as explosive-laden drone boats, missiles, or drones prepared by the Houthis to attack international shipping lanes. The US military’s largest and most recent wave of airstrikes occurred on Oct. 4, when US Central Command said that its forces had carried out 15 strikes against Houthi targets in various Yemeni locations controlled by the militia. The Houthis said that the strikes targeted Sanaa, Dhamar, Hodeidah and Al-Bayda, with residents reporting thick smoke and explosions rocking military bases in targeted areas. In a campaign that began in November, the Houthis have launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, drones, and drone boats at international commercial and naval ships in the Red Sea and other international shipping lanes off Yemen, as well as seized a commercial ship with its crew and sunk two more. The Houthis claim that the campaign is intended to put pressure on Israel to stop its military operations in the Gaza Strip. Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israeli cities prompted two waves of airstrikes by Israeli jets, which targeted power plants, fuel storage facilities and ports in Hodeidah in July and September. The latest attack came as two international human rights organizations condemned the Houthis for abducting Yemenis who celebrated the 1962 revolution, demanding their release. Human Rights Watch and the Cairo Institute for Human Rights said in a joint statement on Tuesday that since Sept. 21, the Houthis have abducted dozens of people in Sanaa, Taiz, Al-Bayda, Dhale, Hajjah, Dhamar, Ibb, Amran and Hodeidah who wrote about the 62nd anniversary of the 1962 revolution or waved or wore a Yemeni flag.
“The crackdown on protests and any activities that diverge from Houthi beliefs and ideologies is yet another violation in the extensive record of human rights abuses they have committed in Yemen with total impunity,” Amna Guellali, research director at the Cairo Institute for Human Rights, said.
According to the two organizations, the Houthis have not filed charges against the abductees, and Houthi fighters, using several military vehicles, raided the home of a Yemeni social media activist in Sanaa after breaking in, scaring his family after he posted about the revolution on social media. He was abducted and his phones, laptop and old cameras were seized, the organizations said. “The Houthis continue to call for the international community to respect the rights of Palestinians in Gaza, while simultaneously violating the rights of the people living in the territories they control,” Niku Jafarnia, Yemen and Bahrain researcher at Human Rights Watch, said. Jafarnia added: “They should show the Yemeni people the same respect that they demand for Palestinians, starting by ending this endless campaign of arbitrary arrests.”Meanwhile, Rashad Al-Alimi, chairman of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, asked the US to lift sanctions against a Yemeni businessman and his companies. Last week, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Yemeni politician and banking, telecom and media magnate Hamed Abdullah Hussein Al-Ahmer, as well as nine of his companies, for supporting Palestinian Hamas. Without naming Al-Ahmer, Yemen’s official news agency SABA reported that Al-Alimi met US Ambassador to Yemen Steven Fagin in Riyadh to “review” OFAC’s measures against Yemeni businesses. Separately, a Yemeni military officer was killed by an explosion while driving in Yemen’s southern province of Shabwa on Monday night, in an attack claimed by Al-Qaeda in Yemen. According to local media and officials, Col. Ahmed Mohsen Al-Suleimani, a commander with the Shabwa Defence Forces, was killed in an explosion caused by a roadside bomb that ripped through his car in Shabwa’s Al-Musenah. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement released on Tuesday.

Crown prince oversees signing of Saudi-Egypt council during visit to meet with El-Sisi
ARAB NEWS/October 15, 2024
RIYADH: The Saudi Royal Court announced on Tuesday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrived in Egypt. During his visit, Prince Mohammed will hold talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who received the crown prince on arrival. The discussions will center on enhancing bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as addressing key issues of mutual concern. The crown prince and El-Sisi held a discussion session in the presence of the two countries’ delegations, Saudi Press Agency reported. They also witnessed the signing of the formation of the Saudi-Egyptian Supreme Coordination Council and the agreement to encourage and protect mutual investments between the Kingdom and Egypt. The crown prince sent a cable of thanks to El-Sisi on his departure from Cairo. He expressed his appreciation for the warm hospitality and reception he and his delegation received during their visit, SPA reported. He highlighted that the discussions held with the recipient have reaffirmed the strong ties between their two countries and their mutual desire to enhance cooperation across various fields. The crown prince also emphasized the commitment to continued coordination on issues of common interest under the leadership of King Salman and El-Sisi and concluded by wishing the Egyptian president good health and success, and the people of Egypt continued prosperity.

Russian Troops Made An 'Expensive And Embarrassing Failure' On The Battlefield, UK Says
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/October 15, 2024
The Russian army made an “expensive and embarrassing” error on its battlefield in Ukraine, according to UK intelligence.The Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed in its most recent update that Moscow troops shot down their own drone, known as an uncrewed combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). The officials said the drone was flying west over the front lines of the Ukraine conflict on October 5 when Russia made the surprising decision. The MoD suggested: “It is likely that Russia lost control of the UCAV and took the decision to destroy the aircraft to avoid it falling into adversary hands.”But, to make matters even worse for Moscow, this drone was allegedly part of the S-70 programme, which has been in development “for at least a decade”, the MoD said. “A key attribute of the S-70 is its reduced radar cross section which is intended to make it a ‘stealth’ deep strike asset, potentially capable of penetrating adversary radar and air-defence coverage.”The MoD continued: “It is likely Russia waited to the last minute before choosing to engage the UCAV having exhausted attempts to bring it back under control. “This demonstrates yet another expensive and embarrassing failure of Russian weapons development and will almost certainly delay the S-70 programme.”UK intelligence has already suggested that Putin’s army is struggling on the frontline due to low morale and poorly training troops. The MoD has previously speculated that Moscow will suffer up to 1,000 casualties per day this winter due to the Ukraine war, having already likely lost – either through injury or death – an estimated 648,000 soldiers. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s army managed to seize some Russian land – the first time any country has done so since World War 2 – in early August. Two months later, and Russia still has not managed to oust their opponents.

Ex-IDF air defense chief Kochav to 'Post': How to solve drone problem
Jerusalem Post/October 15/2024
After several months of delay, Gallant tries to fast-track new drone defense ‘within months.’
Former IDF air defense chief Brig. Gen. (res.) Ran Kochav told the Jerusalem Post that the two keys to beating the drone defense problem highlighted by the Golani base disaster on Sunday are better identification and a wide range of tailored shootdown solutions. Speaking to the Post shortly after the incident, Kochav said, “We need to find solutions. It’s a big challenge for the country. We need major moves to do it. The biggest issue is identification” of the drones as they fly into Israeli airspace. Further, the former air defense chief said, “This needs to happen no matter what. They have been working on it for months, but recently, six soldiers were killed, four at the Golani base and two from a drone from Iraq. We must succeed.” As he has in recent academic articles on air defense, Kochav said part of the solution would also be a multitude of options. “We can use acoustic detection, lower the threshold for radar detection [to declare a threat], improved intelligence, and try to bring in more different kinds of ways to shoot them down, from shells to Vulcan anti-aircraft guns, to more Iron Dome batteries, to more dedicated anti-drone aircraft,” he said. In accordance with Kochav’s recommendations, the Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday that it held an event on Monday to try to expedite the identification and deployment of new systems for defending against drones within months. While the ministry statement was very optimistic about moving fast toward solutions, the defense establishment has taken harsh criticism for months for moving too slowly and being too bureaucratic about addressing the drone threat. Addicted to overspending, underperforming. Some current and former defense officials have said that the establishment is too used to expensive, advanced-sounding weapons and has trouble adapting to using low-tech retrograde solutions against low-tech threats like many of the simple and cheap but deadly drones Israel faces. According to a ministry statement, “This groundbreaking event showcased various solutions as part of an expedited competitive process initiated by the Defense Minister several weeks prior to rapidly develop innovative interception solutions in response to the evolving security landscape.”
Next, the ministry said, “The trial took place at a testing field in southern Israel, with the participation of eight Israeli industries, ranging from major companies (Elbit Systems, Rafael, and Israel Aerospace Industries) to startup firms, presenting technological solutions for UAV interception.” “Solutions that met the threshold requirements in the demonstration phase will advance to accelerated development and operational testing,” stated the ministry. Further, the statement said that the defense industries deployed prototypes of their interception systems, developed with the ministry’s research and analysis division to demonstrate “UAV interception capabilities at various ranges and flight altitudes.”Moreover, the ministry noted, “After analyzing the trial results, the Defense Ministry will select several technologies to enter an accelerated development and production process. This aims to deploy new operational capabilities within months. CEOs of defense industries and senior IDF and Defense Ministry officials attended the trial.” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, "The UAV threat is a multi-arena threat originating from Iran, which supplies UAVs to Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, and even launches them itself. To face this threat, we must concentrate the national effort of all bodies dealing with the issue to produce operational solutions quickly.”
“Since the beginning of the war, the Israel Defense Ministry and DDR&D have been leading this effort. Yesterday's competition, in which small and large defense industries presented various solutions, from the most sophisticated to simple ones, advances us another step forward,” he said.
Director General of the IMoD, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Eyal Zamir stated that the ministry has invested hundreds of millions of shekels in developing, extensively procuring, and deploying defensive capabilities, adding that more recently, Gallant ordered “an unrestricted 'green track' for any entity—a major industry or a startup—that can deliver an effective solution.”“These will constitute a more comprehensive defensive strategy with the laser system and other technologies we're advancing,” said Zamir.
Head of the DDR&D, Brig. Gen. (Res.) Dr. Daniel Gold explained, “The defense establishment is committed to developing a holistic defensive response to the UAV threat, mirroring our approach to threats in higher aerial strata…encompassing detection, tracking, and interception layers.”
The ministry listed companies and their products included:
SMARTSHOOTER: Unveiled a unique development providing precise guidance for a broad spectrum of interception methods and threat types.
The Post also asked Kochav about the specific Golani base drone incident, given that in that case, the IDF actually detected but then lost the drone. He said that losing a drone when you fire on multiple drones at once, including some hits, can be a frequent occurrence. Kochav stated that when an explosion happens nearby, it can be harder for the radar and those watching the radar to maintain contact with other drones that might not have been hit. When the hit is over land, a team can quickly be sent to determine if the drone was hit and crashed. Over the water, where the other drones were shot down and where the drone which evaded interceptors was targeted, there was no quick way to know that it was not shot down and lost at sea, said Kochav. The air defense chief said this may have happened many times before, but that usually the drone may still just end up not reaching its true target and crash somewhere in an open area. Finally, Kochav said that despite the high cost of fighting with Hezbollah, as it continues to have “successes” in killing or wounding Israelis from time to time, the IDF cannot let up or prematurely end the war. Rather, Kochav said that the IDF must keep the pressure on Hezbollah until there is a deal that allows hard enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 to ensure that Hezbollah actually remains outside of southern Lebanon, which will then allow the northern Israeli residents to return to their homes.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 15-16/2024
Awaiting Israel’s strike, Tehran pushes propaganda to cushion the blow
Behnam Ben Taleblu/ FDD's Long War Journal/October 15/2024
“Lethal, precise, and especially surprising.”
That’s how Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant framed Israel’s impending military response to the Islamic Republic’s overt and direct missile barrage from Iranian territory against the Jewish state earlier this October. While Gallant’s comments appeared intentionally vague, the Islamic Republic’s remarks are becoming increasingly specific. And with good reason.
Iranian politicians, military officials, and media outlets are currently advancing a series of threats, half-truths, and outright lies in the service of softening the political blow that any Israeli strike could land while also raising military costs. In so doing, they seek to stem the ability of any strike to generate a crisis of legitimacy that could then cascade to threaten regime survival for Tehran’s theocrats.
The imperative of this campaign for pro-regime elites is set to grow, given the inability of the Islamic Republic to successfully co-opt Iranian nationalism into the fight against Israel and bolster its tattered standing on the home front. Perhaps nowhere was this failure more apparent in Iran than in an allegedly recent piece of anti-regime graffiti reading, “Israel, the first strike is yours, the last strike is ours.”
Since 2017, Iranians have increasingly been protesting against the regime in its entirety, and since 2009, have protested against the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah by chanting, “No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, my life only for Iran.”
A corollary or second reason for ‘flooding the zone’ with rhetoric is to shape the discussion in both Israel and America over the scale and scope of any potential Israeli military response. By re-upping statements about war-weariness, claiming to have newer military capabilities than previously assumed, playing on fears of a greater Iranian retaliation and thus a wider regional war, or even manipulating worries that a successful conventional strike can spur Tehran to weaponize its atomic infrastructure, the aim remains the same: To play on fears of political fallout from a strike and hinder or complicate America and Israel’s most significant advantage against the Islamic Republic, which is conventional military force.
Below are several instances within the past week of how the Islamic Republic has done precisely this along four different vectors. These are identified and unpacked below:
1. Rattling the nuclear saber
It’s predictable that after the Islamic Republic made history and has now twice directly attacked Israel—a reportedly nuclear-weapons state—it would be scrambling to find a way to deter or limit an Israeli kinetic reprisal. That’s where rattling the nuclear saber kicks in. 2024 has been no stranger to Iranian officials relying on this tactic to maximize the regime’s near-threshold nuclear status to stave off attacks against its interests.
In February, Iran’s former atomic energy organization (AEOI) chief likened building a nuclear weapon to building a car, alleging that Tehran had all the components made but not assembled in one place. Twice in April, an Iranian military official and an Iranian lawmaker claimed that Iran could consider revising its nuclear doctrine and, respectively, move to test a weapon rapidly. And in May, a former foreign minister and current advisor to Iran’s supreme leader claimed that the Islamic Republic would change its military doctrine if it perceived to be under existential threat.
Even in isolation from assessments about the regime’s breakout timelines, these statements are troubling. But when factoring those in—including recent comments by Representative Mike Turner, the US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee Chairman on the ability of the Islamic Republic to become a nuclear power by year’s end—they are akin to a flashing red light that any prudent state would be forced to take seriously and therefore tread cautiously.
Following Iran’s October missile attack against Israel, the regime appears to have doubled down on making nuclear threats, hoping to force the West to connect the dots between the erasure of its conventional deterrent options (neutered terrorist proxies and intercepted long-range strike capabilities) and the greater likelihood that when faced with a conventional defeat, the Islamic Republic’s asymmetric offset would be to cross the weaponization Rubicon. In post-strike statements and commentary, Tehran appears to be laying the political groundwork for that argument,
Entering into this debate was Javan, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked newspaper whose editorial board is believed to reflect the zeitgeist of that organization. On October 3, the paper ran two important editorials: one by the editor-in-chief of the paper, Gholam-Reza Sadeghian, and the other by an international affairs editor named Ali Ghanadi. Both editors took advantage of the regime’s near-nuclear latency to make threats about weaponizing the regime’s atomic infrastructure, given the changes to the geostrategic environment that the Islamic Republic faces.
In Ghanadi’s piece, which was rather candidly entitled, “Changing the atomic doctrine to contest Israel the ‘super-destroyer,’” Ghanadi posits that when faced with a string of defeats, “An immediate solution available is a change in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.”
Eerily, Ghanadi moved on to quote from internationalist relations theorist Kenneth Waltz, to whom he attributed the line, “People who love peace should like nuclear weapons.” Ghanadi ended the piece with a reference to the changing technological environment that he claimed would force the Islamic Republic to change more than just its nuclear doctrine to bridge the gap between it and Israel.
Echoing a similar line of thinking in his editorial was Sadeghian, Javan’s editor-in-chief, who commented on how the West saw Iran’s nuclear thinking, noting the mixed assessments that exist in the West about the so-called “nuclear Fatwa” of Iran’s supreme leader that forces these powers to remain in a state of “guessing.” But where Sadeghian differs from Ghanadi was his embrace of an Iran “that can have” nuclear weapons but opted against it. This technological feat, coupled with political restraint, would produce, in a word, deterrence.
Yet deterrence was not an end state for Sadeghian. Rather, it was a byproduct of the near-threshold status Tehran had that could protect the regime to “carry forward scientific future projects.” In so doing, attaining a threshold status and maximizing the deterrent dividends therein was framed as a pitstop toward what is implicitly assumed to be developing a nuclear weapon.
Though one might be tempted to dismiss these statements as hyperbole and projection from pro-regime papers, they capture a mood on the rise in hardline Iranian circles as it relates to exploiting Iran’s atomic infrastructure, when the regime is faced with a downturn in its regional proxy fortunes.
Socially, this fondness for going all the way on the nuclear file—even hoping for a nuclear test—can be seen in discussions in pro-government fora in the aftermath of Iran’s missile barrage on Israel. As Israel prepares to respond, pro-government voices hoping their regime has a bomb in the basement are borne out of an understanding that the Islamic Republic is conventionally outgunned and not in possession of escalation dominance, as much as they are in revolutionary ideology.
Unsurprisingly, these sentiments have also found their way into the government, with a parliamentary letter on October 9 containing 39 signatories calling on the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to reportedly “pursue nuclear weapons for self-defense. The letter also drew upon language from earlier in 2024, when faced with changing and unfavorable geopolitical environment, to “reevaluate its defense doctrine.”
2. Oscillating between minimalization and maximization to quell fears
By seeking to minimize the potential for a crushing Israeli military response and maximize Iran’s threat of retaliation, the Islamic Republic is trying to calm expectations on the domestic front that arise from two fears.
The first, and seemingly a widely shared view, is that Israel’s reprisal against Iran will be significant. On the same night as Iran’s second missile barrage against Israel, a 28-year-old Iranian artist made this point emphatically, having reportedly, “Googled for shelters in Tehran after the missile attack was announced but found none.” “We’re on our own,” he said. “The authorities don’t even bother to inform or reassure the public.”
The other fear is that for all the regime’s spending on military matters over the years, Iran is largely believed to remain defenseless. Both themes, however, have implications for the Islamic Republic’s status and security on the home front.
To that end, Ebrahim Jabbari, an advisor to the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), tried to thread the needle through and push back on these concerns in recent commentary.
“Contrary to the indications of some and the creating of an atmosphere and the instilling of fear by the arrogant media, there is no war at work; be sure of this,” stated Jabbari. “It is plausible [however] that because the Zionist regime wants to slightly maintain its position, it [might] hit one area. If they hit one point of our country, we will hit dozens of security, military, and economic centers of the Zionists and give them a decisive response. Israelis are afraid of war and won’t go to war with us, [and] Americans are more afraid of war than they are.”
Jabbari’s comments follow semi-official reporting out of Iran clearly aimed at altering Israel and America’s risk-reward calculus surrounding a strike—namely, that the regime’s armed forces have prepared at least 10 response scenarios based on the nature of the Israeli attack. These statements were complemented on the first anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack by a target list of civil and nuclear infrastructure that the regime threatened to launch projectiles against should Israel or America respond to its recent missile barrage.
Fears of a wider war or a protracted conflict are not limited to American administrations or Israeli civilians. Iranian citizens, even those who still identify as reformists, continue to express concern in word and deed about the costs they will have to pay every time their country launches missiles at Israel.
In the words of one “reformist” dissident, “We know, sadly, that for every missile fired from Iranian soil, there will be a response, and it’s the civilians who will suffer the most. As soon as news of the missile attack spread last week, there was widespread panic. People rushed to gas stations and stocked up on essentials like canned tuna, stuff like that. It was like the early days of the COVID pandemic.”
These behaviors indicate that the regime’s tough talk continues to fall on deaf ears.
3. Feigning strength after projecting fear
Cognizant of the stream of embarrassing commentary and analysis—not only among dissidents or Iran watchers but even in mainstream Western media—about how Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei kept looking up at the sky while leading prayers after Israel killed Hamas chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this summer, pro-regime voices have sought to make much of Khamenei’s recent decision to embrace the very exposed Friday prayer pulpit in Tehran.
Parsing Khamenei’s latest Friday prayer sermon—where the supreme leader re-upped the regime’s invective and call for war against Israel—was former Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) chief Ezzatollah Zarghami. Zarghami made much of Khamenei’s decision to double his prayers and linger after the sermon, even reporting that the supreme leader chose to mingle with officials and attendees in the front rows after prayers had concluded.
This blow-by-blow is not because Zarghami thinks Iranians care about the supreme leader’s Friday afternoon schedule. It’s a blatant bid to reverse the impression of fear Khamenei’s previous appearance gave and instead use the opportunity to signal resolve. Accordingly, this telling of Khamenei’s prolonged presence at a public Friday prayer gathering aimed to convey that the regime is not worried about Israel’s impending attack. Zarghami stressed this point in his commentary by alleging that Khamenei’s sense of “calm” that day was “communicated to the whole world.”
4. Feigning great power cover to deter an attack
At least one Iranian outlet, Tabnak—which is closely affiliated with former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaie—took the Islamic Republic’s propaganda war to the next level with a claim that no other major Iranian media outlet has, at the time of this writing, chosen to magnify.
Tabnak alleges that Russia has finally made good on its promise to transfer advanced weapons systems to Iran and reportedly sent one squadron of Su-35 fourth-generation fighter jets to the Islamic Republic, as well as unknown quantities of the S-400 surface-to-air (SAM) missile defense system.
To be clear, Tabnak has not offered any additional data or claims about the transfer. Instead, the article delved into specifics about each platform, with those on the Su-35 being a helpful reminder that should Tehran acquire this system, it would first and foremost allow the regime to better contest and complicate the ability of foreign air forces to operate in Iranian airspace in an uncontested fashion.
Tabnak’s blatant attempt at padding Tehran’s arsenal appears aimed at politically raising the cost and even deterring Israel’s likely need to suppress or destroy Tehran’s patchwork of domestic and foreign SAM systems in the case of a strike on the Islamic Republic. A follow-on rationale for this unverified (even by Iranian media standards) allegation is to tout the dividends of tightening political and military ties with Moscow to the domestic population. In this regard, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan, where the Russian president was reported to have said, “We work together internationally, and our global assessments and approaches are the same,” is aimed at feigning more diplomatic depth and breadth behind the Islamic Republic than traditionally meets the eye.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, DC, where he covers Iranian political and security issues. He is the author of Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program (FDD Press: 2023).

Hamas-Supporting Grandson of Mandela Unable to Enter UK
David May & Toby Dershowitz/| Policy Brief/October 15/2024
Zwelivelile Mandla Mandela, the grandson of South African anti-Apartheid champion Nelson Mandela, reportedly did not receive a visa in time to fly to the United Kingdom for a speaking tour that started on October 10. Under UK guidelines on visa issuance, the government would have ample justification for denying a visa to an individual like Mandela who has openly supported Hamas and called on others to support Hamas’s war against Israel.
According to a Sheffield-based anti-Israel group that was set to host him, British officials initially told Mandela that his South African government passport did not require a visa but informed him on October 7 that he would in fact need a visa. Mandela lost his seat in South Africa’s parliament in May, but it is unclear whether he still holds a government passport. UK visas typically take three weeks to process. Ireland, where Mandela is slated to speak later this month, reportedly waived his visa requirement.
The UK Home Office faced questions prior to Mandela’s scheduled arrival as to whether it should bar the South African over his inflammatory rhetoric. In the wake of the October 7, 2023, attack in which Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped 250, Mandela urged support for the terrorist group. At a rally in November 2023, Mandela shouted, “Viva Hamas.” He continued, “We want to say to Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Palestinian resistance, Hezbollah, and the Mujahideen, intensify the struggle in occupied Palestine and in Gaza.” Using the name Hamas gave to the October 7 terror rampage, he called on Palestinians to “support operation Al Aqsa Flood and intensify the struggle on all fronts.”
Beyond pro-Hamas rhetoric, Mandela hosted three Hamas officials in South Africa in December 2023 for an event honoring his grandfather’s legacy. And since May 2024, Mandela has been a board member of the League of Parliamentarians for al-Quds and Palestine, which is run by Hamid bin Abdullah al-Ahmar. The U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned al-Ahmar earlier this month for raising funds on behalf of Hamas. Treasury stated that he is a key member of the team managing Hamas’s investment portfolio and provided support to the Al-Quds International Foundation, which Treasury sanctioned in 2012 for being a Hamas-controlled charity.
Mandela is reportedly close with Ebrahim Gabriels, the director of the South African branch of the al-Quds International Foundation. Gabriels officiated at Mandela’s wedding and reportedly guided Mandela during his conversion to Islam. The website for the Union of Good, a global charity network the United States sanctioned for raising money on behalf of Hamas, listed Gabriels as a board member in the early 2000s. Gabriels was senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk’s gateway to South Africa’s Muslim community, according to a biography of Marzouk. And in August 2024, Gabriels attended the funeral of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar.
Mandela also has a record of violence. In 2014, he was charged with assault and pointing a firearm at a teacher in a “road rage” incident. While the firearms charge was dropped, he was found guilty of assault. Additionally, he is reportedly estranged from several members of his grandfather’s family.
London’s Metropolitan Police warned those who may be tempted to support Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are banned in the United Kingdom, that the law is very clear: “Anyone displaying symbols, wording or otherwise indicating support for a proscribed organisation risks arrest. The same is true for anyone who appears to be endorsing, celebrating or justifying the actions of those organisations.”
The United Kingdom has guidelines for denying entry to individuals whose “presence in the UK is not conducive to the public good.” They include engaging in extremism and associating with “individuals involved in terrorism, extremism, war crimes or criminality.” Mandela’s extreme rhetoric, support for the UK-designated terrorist group Hamas, and association with individuals tied to Hamas justify his being denied entry.
**David May is a research manager and senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Toby Dershowitz is the managing director at FDD Action. FDD Action is a non-partisan 501(c)(4) organization established to advocate for effective policies to promote U.S. national security and defend free nations. Follow David and Toby on X @DavidSamuelMay and @TobyDersh. Follow FDD on X @FDD.

War fatigue settles among Palestinians
Ben Cohen/Jewish News Syndicate/October 15/2024
For the first time, the majority of Gaza civilians—some 57%—now believe that the Oct. 7 atrocities were a mistake, a recent survey reveals.
One year after the Hamas atrocities in southern Israel ignited a multi-front war between the Jewish state and Iran’s regional proxies, a discernible trend is emerging among many Palestinians, especially those in Gaza. They are getting tired of the war.
War fatigue doesn’t mean that the Palestinians have suddenly developed an appetite for real peace—a peace, that is, in which Israel’s right to exist is welcomed, not contested, along with trade, educational and cultural agreements replacing boycotts, and a shared focus on regional security and regional development. The eliminationist ideology that resides at the heart of the Palestinian national movement, which expressed itself with astonishing brutality during the Oct. 7 pogrom in southern Israel, still prevails. But unlike the well-fed performative morons donning keffiyehs, banging drums and chanting antisemitic slogans in the streets and on the university campuses of Western cities, the Palestinians of Gaza have suffered immensely because of the actions of Hamas. Many of them are now asking whether it was all worth it.
Indeed, throughout this year, pockets of dissent have emerged among ordinary Palestinians fed up with Hamas thugs stealing humanitarian aid intended for their families, with some of them rightly accusing the terrorist organization of not giving a damn about their welfare, given that a punishing response from Israel was never in doubt in the wake of the massacre of 1,200 people. A report from the Reuters news agency last week quoted a Gazan mother named Samira wistfully remembering what her life was like before Oct. 7. “Despite all the hardships, our life was going well. We had jobs, houses and a city,” she said. Her dutiful description of Israel as “our prime enemy” didn’t prevent her from blaming Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the atrocity, for inviting the Israeli response. “What was he thinking? Didn’t he expect that Israel would destroy Gaza?” she asked.
Sinwar did expect precisely that. It was, moreover, something that he wanted. The “Butcher of Khan Yunis”—a moniker that Sinwar earned due to his reputation for torturing and murdering Palestinians opposed to Hamas—doubtless regards “martyrdom” as a fitting end to his blood-drenched campaign. His Qatar-based billionaire comrade, Khaled Mashaal, thinks similarly, declaring in an interview last week that Hamas will “rise like a phoenix” from the ashes of Gaza. That’s easy to say if you’re lounging at the Four Seasons in Doha wearing an expensive Italian suit. It’s not so easy if you’re a Gazan compelled to live with the consequences of Hamas’s pathology.
Polling by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, a Ramallah-based institute that has usefully observed the shifting sentiments among Palestinians over the last year, bears that out. Its most recent survey, dated Sept. 14, reveals that for the first time, the majority of Gaza civilians—some 57%—now believe that the Oct. 7 atrocities were a mistake. Belief in the proposition that Hamas will still control Gaza at the end of the war has also declined, with 37% of Gazans agreeing with it compared with 70% of respondents in the West Bank. Also worth noting are the shifting opinions on a final settlement of the conflict. Some 39% of respondents support a two-state solution—a figure that rises to 59% when the phrase “two-state solution” is not mentioned but the borders of a Palestinian state are defined by the armistice lines of 1949. Only 19% of respondents expressed support for an Israeli-Palestinian confederation, while just 10% backed the single state—“from the river to the sea”—that would entail the complete elimination of Israel.
The latest mood of realism among Palestinians has been seen before, which is a good reason not to become overly optimistic. Given the heavy blows that have been sustained in the last year, with Hamas decimated as a cohesive fighting force and much of Gaza reduced to rubble, it isn’t surprising that more and more Palestinians are acknowledging that they have had enough. The shift may help secure a ceasefire and the release of the 101 Israeli hostages still languishing in Hamas captivity (although even then, as long as Sinwar calls the shots and ignores the pleas of his people, there is less likelihood of that outcome.) What it won’t do is bring about a peace where Israel is accepted by the Palestinians and the broader Arab world on its own terms.
Israelis will correctly remain skeptical of reading too much into the changing mood. The idea of a democratic Jewish state with a permanent presence in the region still represents a red line that most Palestinians won’t cross. As the folksy observation has it, it’s one thing to think with your head, and another to feel with your heart. With Hamas on the ropes, with its Hezbollah ally in Lebanon humiliated and emasculated by Israel’s operations north of the border, and with Iran facing an Israeli counterattack that could yet bring an end to the regime of Ali Khamenei in Tehran—the ultimate source of all this suffering—a sensible head will conclude that the time is right for an interim deal. But eliminationism will continue to fester in Palestinian hearts unless and until it is properly addressed.
It’s often said that the wholesale transformation of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan at the end of World War II was only possible because both of the regimes in those countries were unambiguously defeated. Looking at Palestinian politics now, we are very far from such a scenario. All the leaders and all the factions that predominate—Islamist or nationalist, Marwan Barghouti of Fatah or Yahya Sinwar of Hamas—are wedded to the idea that Zionism lies at the root of their ills. Whatever divides them, they are united in the belief that their “liberation” can only be achieved at the expense of another state and another nation; essentially, a zero-sum game that determines for Palestine to live, Israel must die. I dare to hope, given the progress in the field in recent months, that Israel can significantly lessen, if not banish, the prospect of another Oct. 7. I dare not hope for much more than that.
*Ben Cohen, a senior analyst with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writes a weekly column for JNS on Jewish affairs and Middle Eastern politics.

The United States continues to feel the repercussions of Oct. 7
Enia Krivine/Jewish News Syndicate/October 15/2024
Iran and its regional proxies have threatened not only the physical safety of Americans but also their prosperity.
Israel just marked the first anniversary of Hamas’s massacre of 1,200 men, women and children on Oct. 7, which launched the regional war that continues to rage in the Middle East. While Israel is bearing the brunt of the multifront conflict—facing direct attacks from the regime in Tehran and its proxies in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and the West Bank—the war has also had consequences for the United States.
Hamas killed 46 Americans on Oct. 7 and took an additional 12 U.S. citizens hostage. Among the American hostages was 23-year-old Hersh Goldberg-Polin, whose parents campaigned for his return for 11 months, meeting with world dignitaries and appearing at both the Republican and Democratic national conventions. Despite their efforts, Hamas executed Hersh in captivity in Gaza along with five others. The Israeli military recovered their bodies shortly thereafter, on Sept. 1.
Today, seven American hostages remain in Gaza.
While the number of attacks on U.S. troops by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria was already on the rise before Oct. 7, assaults spiked in the months following the Hamas atrocities. Between Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration in January 2021 and March 2023, American troops in Syria were attacked 78 times. In June 2023, The Washington Post reported that Tehran was equipping regional proxies with weapons “intended specifically to target U.S. military vehicles and kill U.S. personnel” as part of a broader strategy to eject America from the area. Since Hamas launched the war last year, Iranian-supported terrorists have targeted American troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan more than 180 times, killing three U.S. service members in Jordan in January. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—the umbrella group for Iranian-backed militias in Iraq that took responsibility for the murder of the U.S. service members—claims to have attacked Israel some 115 times since Oct. 7.
Iran and its regional proxies have threatened not only the physical safety of Americans but also their prosperity. According to the U.S. Navy, between 2021 and July 5, 2023, Iran has “harassed, attacked or seized nearly 20 internationally flagged merchant vessels.” Since the war between Israel and Hamas began, the regime in Tehran has largely outsourced the harassment of shipping in the Red Sea to its Yemen-based proxy: the Houthis.
In April, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported that the Houthis have attacked 26 ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since November. The Red Sea is a major international shipping artery, with between 10% to 15% of international maritime trade and 30% of global container shipping passing through. According to the DIA report, shipping in the Red Sea was down 90% between December 2023 and February 2024, constituting a major blow since alternate shipping routes around the Horn of Africa add about 11,000 nautical miles, one to two weeks of transit time, and approximately $1 million in fuel costs for each voyage. The crisis could exacerbate other stresses on shipping, and ultimately, lead to inflation and increased consumer prices in the United States.
Israel has absorbed two direct assaults from Iran—one in April and one earlier this month—and more than 20,000 rockets and missiles from Iranian proxies across the region. The trend of militias killing and terrorizing U.S. and Israeli citizens long predates Oct. 7. Nevertheless, the Hamas attack—funded and supported by Tehran—has brought Iran’s dangerous behavior into sharp relief. Washington should continue to support Israel as it faces off against shared adversaries in the region, and back Israel as it eyes a significant attack that will weaken the Islamic Republic and potentially curb its malign activity.
*Enia Krivine is the senior director of the Israel Program and the FDD National Security Network at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow Enia on X @EKrivine.

Egypt Publishes Book Calling for the Destruction of Churches
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/October 15/2024
Islamic schizophrenia—or merely two-facedness—is making the news again, in Egypt.
At a time when President Sisi and the Grand Imam of Al Azhar, Sheikh Ahmad al-Tayeb, are publicly claiming, especially to the West, that Islam does not prohibit the construction of churches, an Arabic language book calling for the destruction of churches was recently exposed (image below).
Sheikh Abdul Rahman al-Naquib, a “professor” at Mansoura University, one of Egypt’s large state-owned educational facilities, had supervised the annotation (by an “Islamic researcher”) and reissuance of the book in question, written around 1760 by Sheikh Ahmad al-Damanhouri. True to its outlandish title, “Establishing the Dazzling Argument for the Demolition of Churches in Egypt and Cairo,” (which rhymes “beautifully” in Arabic) the entire book is dedicated to emphasizing that churches have no place in Egypt—formerly a Christian nation conquered by Islam in the seventh century—and must therefore be demolished wherever and whenever they are found.
Professor Abdul Rahman al-Naquib oversaw the republication of book calling for destruction of churches.
Sheikh al-Damanhouri wrote this book after some Copts had started building a new church in Cairo, thereby angering local Muslims. The Sheikh, then the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, was asked about building and renovating churches, and he confirmed (in a fatwa) that it was forbidden according to all four schools of Islamic thought (Hanafi, Shafi’i, Maliki and Hanbali). He also said that it is not permissible to rebuild a church that has been destroyed—even if it was unjustly destroyed.
It bears noting that the professor behind the annotation and reissuance of this book, Sheikh al-Naquib, could not be dismissed as some “fringe radical” (he has since died) as he was a professor at the Educational Studies Faculty of Mansoura University—meaning he, the likes of him, and their ideas, play a major role in training and molding new school teachers.
Be that as it may; perhaps the greater lesson here is that when the story recently came to light by the political writer and thinker Dr. Khalid Montaser, Al Azhar, and its Grand Imam, Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb—who are both much more influential than Mansoura University and Sheikh Naquib—responded with absolutely nothing to this latest scandal, thereby implicitly consenting to the message of the book.
Keep in mind, Al Azhar and its “moderate” Grand Imam—who was once praised by the Wall Street Journal for making “one of the most sweeping calls yet for educational reform in the Muslim world to combat the escalation of extremist violence”—are usually never at a loss for words, especially whenever another Islamic source in Egypt contradicts their pronouncements; and, as mentioned, the Grand Imam is on record saying that Islam does not prohibit the building of churches in Egypt.
In reality, the rebukes of Al Azhar and its officials appear to be directed only against those who oppose their “radical” views. As Egyptian talk show host, Ibrahim Eissa, once put it, following news some years back that Al Azhar had refused to denounce ISIS as false Muslims:
It’s amazing. Al Azhar insists ISIS are Muslims and refuses to denounce them. Yet Al Azhar never ceases to shoot out statements accusing novelists, writers, thinkers—anyone who says anything that contradicts their views—of lapsing into a state of infidelity. But not when it comes to ISIS!
Many insiders have accused Al Azhar of teaching and legitimizing the very same atrocities that ISIS commits. Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah Nasr, a scholar of Islamic law and Al Azhar graduate once exposed his alma mater in a televised interview thusly:
It [Al Azhar] can’t [condemn the Islamic State as un-Islamic]. The Islamic State is a byproduct of Al Azhar’s programs. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic? Al Azhar says there must be a caliphate and that it is an obligation for the Muslim world [to establish it]. Al Azhar teaches the law of apostasy and killing the apostate. Al Azhar is hostile towards religious minorities, and teaches things like not building churches, etc. Al Azhar upholds the institution of jizya. Al Azhar teaches stoning people. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic?
Similarly, while discussing how the Islamic State burns some of its victims alive—most notoriously, a Jordanian pilot—Egyptian journalist Yusuf al-Husayni remarked on his satellite program that “The Islamic State is only doing what Al Azhar teaches.” He went on to quote from textbooks used in Al Azhar that permit burning people—more specifically, “infidels”—alive.
“Establishing the Dazzling Argument for the Demolition of Churches in Egypt and Cairo”
Is it any wonder, then, that Al Azhar has said nothing about the reissuance of a book that demands the destruction of churches, even though it is in Al Azhar’s power to ban said book?
In fact, there are many such books proliferating throughout Egypt’s educational system, including Al Azhar itself. In 2016, Egyptian lawyer Ahmed ‘Abdu Maher exposed “a book in Al Azhar that calls for the forceful shaving of the heads of the Copts [Egypt’s indigenous Christians], placing a sign on their homes [so Muslims know where the “infidels” reside], and refusing to shake hands with them.”
A year before that, in 2015,the aforementioned Dr. Khalid Montaser, asked in bewilderment: “Is it possible at this sensitive time — when murderous terrorists rest on texts and understandings of takfir, murder, slaughter, and beheading — that Al Azhar magazine is offering free of charge a book whose latter half and every page — indeed every few lines — ends with “whoever disbelieves [infidels] strike off his head”?
No, the reissuance of “Establishing the Dazzling Argument for the Demolition of Churches in Egypt and Cairo” merely reconfirms one thing: Egypt’s most official authorities on Islam, Al Azhar University and its Grand Imam Ahmed al-Tayeb—otherwise known as Pope Francis’s “wolf-in-sheep’s-clothing”—are dedicated to saying one (tolerant but false) thing to the West and non-Muslims, and one (“radical” but true) thing to fellow Muslims.

Amid worrying uncertainty, the Lebanese are searching for a homeland
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/October 15, 2024
It is a real tragedy that more than a million Lebanese have been displaced and uprooted within a few weeks following the Israeli military’s “advice” that comes with an “or else.”
The truth of the matter is that, whether they have been displaced or still have a roof over their head and still live between the walls of their home around them, the future is uncertain.
The future is indeed worrying when the likes of Antony Blinken and Amos Hochstein on one side and Abbas Araghchi and Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf on the other are toying with it. Both sides are waiting amid the countdown to the US presidential election and the accelerating search for a successor to Iran’s supreme leader. I remind those who may have forgotten that Araghchi had been secretly negotiating an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program with a US delegation led by William Burns, the current director of the CIA, and Jake Sullivan, the current national security adviser, a few years ago in the Omani capital, Muscat. The problem, for the people of Lebanon, is that this skilled negotiator prohibits others from taking the kind of steps he allows himself to take.
Araghchi visited Lebanon a few days ago, as it was being ravaged by a destructive and deadly Israeli offensive. Instead of helping to contain the situation by calling for calm and sensible diplomacy, he undermined the efforts of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (the top Shiite official in the country) and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. His visit was made after the two men had called for the implementation of the UN resolutions tied to Lebanon and separating — albeit temporarily — the Lebanese and Palestinian arenas.
Sensible politicians and observers understand the country’s need to catch its breath and reduce tensions. In light of what has happened and is happening in Lebanon — on the human, military and political fronts — sensible politicians and observers understand the country’s need to catch its breath and reduce tensions through responsible political initiatives. These initiatives should seek to safeguard whatever remnants of the state can be salvaged and to ensure that the Shiite community — a large segment of the Lebanese population that feels psychologically wounded, internally besieged and externally threatened — is not isolated. Berri, for those who do not know him, hails from the resilient and troubled south, whose resilience has been tested decade after decade, generation after generation.
This seasoned politician has effectively allowed the country to absorb shocks for decades, as Tehran repeatedly thrust Lebanon into one misadventure after another and the Arab region into turmoil and strife. History has shown that the ultimate beneficiary of this turmoil is none other than Israel. Unfortunately, since Iran effectively took the reins in Iraq, it has managed to reshape the landscape of the Near East, creating sectarian psychological chasms between the communities of the region. These chasms quickly translated into civil wars, sectarian sensitivities, divisions, assassinations and displacement. Moreover, through its incendiary rhetoric, which resonated with a disillusioned Arab audience, Iran laid the groundwork for exacerbating extremism, even through the front lines with Israel. Indeed, opportunities for moderation in the region have withered away like leaves in the autumn. Meanwhile, fascist demagogues and messianic adventurists like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have strengthened their position in the fanatical Israeli right, so much so that it is moving ahead with population transfer policies under the leadership of a corrupt opportunist, Benjamin Netanyahu.
On Saturday, US Secretary of State Blinken reassured us — and we thank him for it — that Washington supports the Lebanese state’s efforts to assert itself against Hezbollah, without forgetting, of course, to affirm “Israel’s right to defend itself” against the party.
Moreover, in what seems to be an old-new American pitch for an Israeli-Lebanese peace agreement — on Netanyahu's terms, of course — Blinken continued by saying: “We all have a strong interest in trying to help create an environment in which people can go back to their homes, their safety and security ... Israel has a clear and very legitimate interest in doing that. The people of Lebanon want the same thing. We believe that the best way to get there is through a diplomatic understanding, one that we’ve been working on for some time, and one that we focus on right now.”Blinken concluded by emphasizing that Washington wants to help the Lebanese state build itself up after Hezbollah’s long-held sway. I believe that the vast majority of the Lebanese population wants to see the “state” take control of the political scene sooner rather than later. The Lebanese want the state to take control but, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details. To begin with, Hezbollah’s condition is shrouded in uncertainty. It is not yet clear when the party will manage to rebuild its political apparatus and regain its capacity to take the initiative or operate independently of Tehran’s dictates.
Also, the “state” that most Lebanese may be dreaming of is not necessarily the same one that Netanyahu’s government seeks and that Blinken may have been hinting at.
Moreover, even if we were to assume that Washington is willing and able to play the role of a fair mediator in this regard, previous US initiatives and deals are not encouraging … not in Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, let alone Palestine.
To conclude, let us assume that Blinken, Hochstein and, behind them, President Joe Biden are approaching this matter with the seriousness and fairness we hope for. If so, what guarantees are there that a different US administration — one that will be voted in next month — will stay the course of the current administration, even if it included figures considered to be friends of Israel like Blinken and Hochstein?
**Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. X: @eyad1949

Al-Aqsa Flood: Militias Drown as the State Returns
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/October 16/2024
The main conclusion that can be drawn a year after the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation in the Gaza Envelope and the launch of the “support” war from Lebanon, is that this "flood" has drowned those behind it. Hamas has been reduced to Yahya Sinwar and his small entourage; Hezbollah has lost Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah after losing many of its first, second, and perhaps third-rank officials.
A year after the October 7 operation, Hamas has lost its stronghold in the Gaza Strip, where residents’ only concern is securing food, water, and shelter. They are certainly not preoccupied with the ideas, doctrines, and goals of political Islam. As for Hezbollah's base, it has become all but homeless after around one million people were displaced from the South, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut because of the policies the party has pursued for decades.
The "flood" also hurt the two organizations’ primary patron, which may have planned the operation; indeed, though there is no concrete evidence to that effect, the political and military trajectories of the past two years point in that direction. Iran has lost two of its proxies in the region simultaneously. Hezbollah, its leading proxy, is being dealt rapid, lethal blows that will be difficult to recover from. As for Hezbollah’s Hamas, its defeat deprived the Sunni branch of political Islam allied with Iran of a key military asset.
None have suffered more from the "flood" and the war it sparked than the Palestinian people, especially the residents of the Gaza Strip which has been completely destroyed, and the Lebanese people. The aftermath of the October 7 operation has rattled the relationship between the United States and its strategic ally Israel, because of Israel's failure to appropriately carry out its role as a US vassal that safeguards American interests in the region. Moreover, Benjamin Netanyahu's radical right-wing government has undermined US policy objectives in the region, and his obstinance has forced Washington to intervene directly, sending money, weapons, and fleets to protect Israel.
Diplomacy and its role in the region have also drowned in this “flood.” Diplomacy has failed to address major issues, and we have only seen tactical initiatives focused on reviving stalled negotiations, reaching a ceasefire (that remains elusive), and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid and relief. After the Gaza war and the support front turned into a direct conflict between Iran and Israel, the focus of diplomacy, especially US diplomacy, shifted to averting a major conflict between the two countries that would drag the United States in and further undermine its already strained relations with Russia and China, further complicating matters for the US in Ukraine and Taiwan.
Regardless of whether Netanyahu is right to take the battle to what he considers the mastermind and instigator of conflicts in the region, and to take a belligerent approach to pushing back against Iran, diplomacy has deviated from its path. The diplomatic course primarily entails developing arrangements for ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and paving the way for settlements and negotiations that lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, which is a necessary prerequisite for undermining Iran’s influence in the region by depriving it of its ability to claim that it is the ultimate backer of the Palestinian and the resistance.
Netanyahu and his hardline government claim that through their emphasis on security in addressing every problem with the Palestinians and the Gaza Strip, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, they are fighting alongside the camp of peace and moderation in its battle against the Axis of Resistance, religious extremism, the sponsor of non-state actors and their destabilizing roles that have undermined nation-states.
It is difficult to deny the existence of these two camps. However, at the same time, it is also crucial that we keep in mind what Israel has become, especially under Netanyahu's government. In Israel, the camp of religious and ideological extremists and fanatics is gaining the upper hand over the camp it claims to defend and belong to. The conundrum presented by Israel does not negate the need to eliminate the non-state actors that make political decisions in several countries, have the capacity to expand, and are increasingly shaping regional policies at the expense of states.
On the other hand, the split between the two camps is also reflected domestically, with local dynamics between the camps diverging in each country. Iran is dealing with splits within the regime, despite its bravado and self-assurance. The recent setbacks Hezbollah has faced mirror what is happening inside Iran. Israel is also dealing with domestic divisions and long-standing disputes between extremists and moderates, religious and secular parties, among the religious groups themselves, as well as advocates of peace and a two-state solution, and proponents of annexation and the expulsion of the Palestinians.
After the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the scene has become more complicated. Skepticism about the role and strength of the United States is growing. That strengthens the position of those who argue against relying on the Americans at a time when Russia’s influence is fading and its effectiveness is diminishing, and when China has refrained from intervening, opting to sit and watch.
Finding solutions will be challenging. It begins with allowing states to take back their roles by ending the hegemony of militias. This outcome is becoming a real possibility after having been a mirage, especially if the alliance of minorities crumbles. We also have reason to hope that religious Zionism could collapse in Israel. States retrieving their roles would allow for addressing the region's problems and conflicts through regional initiatives sponsored by moderate Arab states. Maybe that could make US diplomacy more effective.