English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 12/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
”Let us love one another, because love is from God; everyone who loves is born
of God and knows God. Whoever does not love does not know God, for God is love
First Letter of John 04/07-21/:”Let us love one another, because love
is from God; everyone who loves is born of God and knows God. Whoever does not
love does not know God, for God is love.God’s love was revealed among us in this
way: God sent his only Son into the world so that we might live through him. In
this is love, not that we loved God but that he loved us and sent his Son to be
the atoning sacrifice for our sins. Beloved, since God loved us so much, we also
ought to love one another. No one has ever seen God; if we love one another, God
lives in us, and his love is perfected in us. By this we know that we abide in
him and he in us, because he has given us of his Spirit.And we have seen and do
testify that the Father has sent his Son as the Saviour of the world. God abides
in those who confess that Jesus is the Son of God, and they abide in God. So we
have known and believe the love that God has for us. God is love, and those who
abide in love abide in God, and God abides in them. Love has been perfected
among us in this: that we may have boldness on the day of judgement, because as
he is, so are we in this world. There is no fear in love, but perfect love casts
out fear; for fear has to do with punishment, and whoever fears has not reached
perfection in love.We love because he first loved us. Those who say, ‘I love
God’, and hate their brothers or sisters, are liars; for those who do not love a
brother or sister whom they have seen, cannot love God whom they have not seen.
The commandment we have from him is this: those who love God must love their
brothers and sisters also.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 11-12/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The Maarab Conference is Recipe for Definite
failure, and Resolution 1701 Was Buried with Nasrallah's Assassination
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The Treason of Esmail Qaani & His Secretary Exposes
the Iranian Regime as the True Enemy of the Lebanese, Arabs, and Global
Peace—Not Israel
Elias Bejjani / Text and Video: Analysis of Naïm Qassem’s Illusions, Delusions,
Denial and Treacherous Speech
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The End of Iran’s Reign of Terror and Hezbollah's
Demise
Senior Hezbollah leader Wafiq Safa in 'critical condition' after IAF strike in
Beirut - report
Halevi: 'We will not stop until we return residents to the North'
Israel Air Force strike eliminates Hezbollah Radwan Force commander Araeb el
Shoga
US Draws Roadmap to Disarm Lebanon’s Hezbollah
Hochstein: Washington Is Working 'Day and Night' to Reach a Ceasefire in Lebanon
Two Soldiers Killed in South Lebanon Amid Ongoing Israeli Raids
Nawraj: Solidarity in the Face of War
Meerab Rises Above the Clamor of War
More UNIFIL Injuries in Israeli Shelling for the Second Day
Contributing Countries React to Incidents Targeting UNIFIL
Berri's Statement: An Attempt to Bury Resolution 1559?
PM Mikati: Hezbollah Agrees to Implement Resolution 1701; Diplomatic Solution on
the Table
Hezbollah’s Unexpected Vulnerabilities from Syrian Conflict Involvement
Israel-Hezb: Between Moralistic Stance and Strategic Challenge/Michel Touma/This
is Beirut/October 11/2024
OP-EDClass Hatred Veiled in Humanitarianism/Johnny Kortbawi/This is
Beirut/October 11/2024
Southern European leaders want Lebanon's army to reassert itself in the
country's south/Menelaos Hadjicostis/The Associated Press/October 11, 2024
LF Organizes National Conference to Outline ‘Roadmap to Save Lebanon/Beirut:
Youssef Diab/October 11/2024
Israeli Strikes Kill 22 in Beirut as Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa Evades Assassination
UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon in crosshairs of Israel’s war on Hezbollah
Israel's deadliest strike in central Beirut leaves Lebanese stunned as they dig
through the rubble/Bassem Mroue/BEIRUT (AP)/October 11, 2024
Israeli Tank Fires on UNIFIL Base in Lebanon’s Naqoura
Israel faces international criticism after attacks on U.N. bases in Lebanon
Israel attacks on UN in breach of international law - Harris
US sees a window for a new push to break political deadlock in Lebanon to ease
conflict/Matthew Lee/The Associated Press/October 11, 2024
UNIFIL to Meet after Israeli Forces Fire at its Mission in Lebanon
AMCD Applauds Israel’s Targeting of Hezbollah’s Leadership
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 11-12/2024
Trump asks for military aircraft protection amid Iran threat, reports say
Leaders of EU states in Mediterranean say ceasefire in Middle East is needed,
now
Iranian president says Israel, backed by West, is 'killing innocent people'
UN inquiry accuses Israel of ‘crime of extermination’ through deliberate
destruction of Gaza’s health care system
Israeli Military: Head of Islamic Jihad Killed in West Bank
US Denies Report of Secret Talks With Iran for Regional Cease-Fire
Leaders of Jordan and southern Europe meet in a bid to help de-escalate Middle
East crisis
Thousands said trapped in Jabalia camp as Israel escalates attacks in northern
Gaza
GCC-EU Summit Poised to Back Two-State Solution
Debate in Iran over Khamenei’s Office Considering Nuclear Weapons’ Fatwa
Revision
Iran foreign minister reiterates Israel retaliation warning
Russian and Iranian leaders meet amid warming ties and escalating Middle East
conflict
US Still Believes Iran Has Not Decided to Build a Nuclear Weapon
Moscow’s ‘Tactical’ Retreat in Syria, Shift in Priorities
Somalia says it welcomes Egypt's offer to deploy peacekeepers there
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on October 11-12/2024
Question: “Why does God allow natural disasters/GotQuestions.org?/October
11/2024
A path toward a nuclear off-ramp with Iran/Ariel E. Levite and Toby Dalton,
opinion contributor/The Hill./October 11/2024
The Islamization of Bangladesh by Muhammad Yunus - Backed by Obama, Soros,
Clintons/Keya Mukherjee/Gatestone Institute./October 11, 2024
Calls for intervention: Will Iran send forces to aid Hezbollah against
Israel?/Dr. Yossi Mansharoe/Jerusalem Post/October 11/2024
Iran: Consistency and Transformation, Domestically and Externally/Mustafa Fahs/Asharq
Al-Awsat/October 11/2024
Resistance or Terror: The Importance of Dosage/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October
11/2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on October 11-12/2024
Elias
Bejjani/Video:
The Maarab Conference is Recipe for Definite failure, and Resolution 1701 Was
Buried with Nasrallah's Assassination
Lebanon is a Rogue, Failed State—The UN Must Enforce Chapter 7 of its Charter by
Force
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiL0rxPVNvM&t=4s
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video:
The Maarab Conference is Recipe for Definite failure, and Resolution 1701 Was
Buried with Nasrallah's Assassination
Lebanon is a Rogue, Failed State—The UN Must Enforce Chapter 7 of its Charter by
Force
Elias Bejjani / October 11, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135548/
The upcoming Maarab
Conference, called for by Dr. Samir Geagea this Saturday, is nothing more than a
theatrical, pointless, and a Recipe for Definate failure. . It is completely
detached from the deadly crisis Lebanon is currently facing amid the ongoing war
between Israel and Hezbollah. In fact, this conference is already dead before it
even begins, as it’s merely a replica of a previous disastrous conference held
in the same location, called for by the same person. That event exposed the
self-serving goals of its organizer, Geagea, and ended in utter failure.
Many Christians and Lebanese citizens don't see Samir Geagea as a credible
leader, knowing fully well his self-centered agenda and his delusional
presidential ambitions, which stand in stark contrast to the true path needed to
save Lebanon and restore its sovereignty. Lebanon must be freed from the grip of
the Iranian occupation and the stranglehold of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed
terrorist entity that blasphemously calls itself a political party.
UN Resolution 1701 was effectively buried alongside Hassan Nasrallah's
assassination. All attempts to resurrect it are not only futile but demonstrate
a dangerous level of ignorance or cowardly submission. The war between Hezbollah
and Israel will not end until Hezbollah is completely uprooted, its
infrastructure dismantled, and its weapons handed over, as the Israeli Prime
Minister has stated.
Lebanon is undeniably a rogue and failed state. Its ruling elite, political
factions, and leadership are deeply corrupt, while its political parties have
become mere corporate franchises for personal gain. A vast majority of religious
leaders are hypocritical Pharisees, speaking of morality while serving their own
interests. The nation’s institutions are hollow, and its officials are morally
bankrupt, driven by greed and self-interest.
Lebanon urgently needs to be placed under the authority of the United Nations,
in accordance with Chapter 7 of its charter. Lebanon meets all the criteria of a
failed state, and the international community must act immediately. Any
conference—like the one Geagea is convening—that does not demand the full and
immediate implementation of all UN resolutions concerning Lebanon through the
use of force is doomed to failure. It must call for the country to be put under
Chapter 7, for corrupt politicians to be tried and placed under house arrest,
and for the Lebanese people to be educated on how to govern themselves properly.
In conclusion, Samir Geagea, like the vast majority of Lebanon’s current
leadership have personal and national agendas. While most of the clergy are
complicit hypocrites, and the political parties are nothing more than
profit-driven enterprises. At the same time a significant portion of the
population remains trapped in blind ideological servitude. Lebanon requires a
complete overhaul to govern itself.
This is an urgent call for international intervention before it’s too late.
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135526/
Text & Video: The Treason of Esmail Qaani & His Secretary
Exposes the Iranian Regime as the True Enemy of the Lebanese, Arabs, and Global
Peace—Not Israel
Elias Bejjani/October
10/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135526/
Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre: Israel hit on Iran nuclear sites
would be ‘gift’ to humanity
The recent
revelation by Sky News about the treason of Esmail Qaani, leader of Iran’s Quds
Force, and his secretary, who secretly provided Israeli Mossad with crucial
intelligence leading to the assassination of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah and
the obliteration of Hezbollah’s leadership, is a striking blow against Iran’s
ambitions. The subsequent destruction of Shiite residential areas in South
Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Dahiyeh of Beirut, displacing over one and a half
million Lebanese Shiites, exposes a devastating truth: the Iranian regime, under
its ruthless mullahs, has long manipulated and sacrificed its followers for its
imperialist agenda. The Shiites of Lebanon and the Arab world must wake up to
this bitter reality—the regime in Tehran has been exploiting their faith, their
identity, and their future as cannon fodder for its expansionist dreams.
Iran, through the tool of Hezbollah, has systematically brainwashed generations
of Shiites with fanaticism, using the delusional rhetoric of "destroying Israel"
and "liberating Palestine" as a cover for its own designs of regional dominance.
This revelation—that Iran’s own top commanders betrayed Hezbollah and led to its
downfall—should shatter the illusion that Tehran cares about the Lebanese
people, especially its Shiite followers. It does not. The regime’s interest is
solely in power, no matter the cost, even if it means delivering its loyal
allies to their graves.
The exposure of Qaani’s treason may very well be a deliberate Israeli move to
weaken Iran's false aura of invincibility and to alert the Arab Shiites that
their true enemy is not Israel but the regime in Tehran. It is Iran that has
made their lands battlegrounds and their futures uncertain. The question now for
the Lebanese Shiites and the broader Arab Shiite community is whether they will
continue to be pawns in Iran’s deadly game, or whether they will rise to reclaim
their dignity, peace, and homeland.
The winds of change are sweeping across the region, as Saudi Arabia’s Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, (MBS) recently stated that Israel is a “potential
ally.” This declaration is more than a policy shift—it is an invitation to the
Middle East to move beyond the politics of hatred and war. We in the Middle East
must seize this opportunity to foster peace, stability, and cooperation. The
Iranian regime, along with its Sunni and Shiites Islamist proxies and the
radical leftist forces that seek to destabilize, are obstacles to this future.
The time has come for the Arab Shiites to break free from the Iranian regime’s
chains of manipulation, reject its agenda of death and destruction, and embrace
the path of peace. The real enemy is not Israel, but those who use religion to
blind and control, those who value power over the well-being of their own
people. Iran is that enemy. Let us stand united for a future of peace and
prosperity in the Middle East, free from the poisonous grip of the Iranian
mullahs.
Elias Bejjani / Text and Video: Analysis of
Naïm Qassem’s Illusions, Delusions, Denial and Treacherous Speech
October 08/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135390/
Sheikh Naïm Qassem’s speech today was a blatant display of mental and
psychological denial regarding the state of Lebanon and Hezbollah. It was, first
and foremost, a clear and documented affirmation that Hezbollah is entirely an
Iranian proxy, with no connection whatsoever to Lebanon, the Arab world, or
humanity. Sheikh Qassem, “God save us from harm,” is nothing more than a
mouthpiece for the Iranian regime.
Secondly, his reckless, jihadist rhetoric acts as a “carte blanche” (license)
for Israel, the free world, and moderate Arab states to strengthen their support
for Netanyahu, continue funding him, and back his efforts to eliminate Hamas and
Hezbollah. This would also result in the displacement of our Lebanese Shiites
brothers and the destruction of their regions along with all of Lebanon.
In his speech, Qassem boasted about the supposed fear, displacement of its
northern residents, economic loses and the fear, anxiety that Israelis are
experiencing, based on his delusional interpretations. However, he willfully
ignored the suffering of the Lebanese Shiites, in particular, and the Lebanese
people as a whole. With foolishness and denial, he claimed that displacement of
the Lebanese in their own country is a form of resistance. Similarly, Sheikh
Sadiq al-Nabulsi has echoed the absurd notion that drug trafficking and
smuggling are tools of Hezbollah’s so-called resistance.
This madman and Iranian puppet declared, “In war, it’s the first to scream who
loses, and we will not scream.” This bizarre detachment from reality is
alarming, especially considering the tragedies that have befallen the Shiites
and Lebanon as a whole. His speech was nothing but empty rhetoric, fantasies,
delusions, and a call suicidal of the Lebanese people.
Qassem’s treacherous speech showed no regard for Lebanon, or the Lebanese
people, nor did it acknowledge the catastrophic consequences of the war on the
Lebanese Shiites, all caused by Hezbollah’s loyalty to Iran and its criminal
actions.
Qassem divided his miserable speech into three main points:
*He thanked Iran and its leaders, glorifying their support, as if Iran had not
already abandoned Hezbollah, either willingly or by force, allowing Israel to
assassinate its leaders, displace the Shiites, and destroy their regions.
*He refused to separate Hezbollah’s war in Lebanon from the conflict in Gaza.
*He confirmed that the war would continue and that Hezbollah would ultimately
claim victory.
Foolishly, he boasted about national unity and the supposed solidarity of the
Lebanese people behind Hezbollah. He ignored the fact that the Lebanese welcomed
the displaced Shiites out of humanity, not in support of Hezbollah, a criminal
and Persian-backed entity. Most Shiites and all free Lebanese see Hezbollah as
nothing but demons, murderers, and enemies.
In conclusion, Israel who is facing an existential threat, along with the Arab
world, the West, and the USA, will not stop the war until Hezbollah, the party
of Satan, is completely uprooted from Lebanon. Hezbollah, along with Iran, Hamas,
and their criminal network, must surrender.
In wars, there must be a victor and a defeated, and without any doubt, Iran,
Hezbollah, Hamas, and their terrorist jihadist allies are on the losing side of
the conflict with Israel.
From a Lebanese perspective, there is no resistance—only Iranian and
Brotherhood-affiliated terrorists, blood merchants, and mafia-like criminals
from top to bottom.
In regards to Lebanon’s bright future after the Hezbollah’s era is over, the
next president must renounce all ties to this so-called resistance and after
bringing Hezbollah’s leaders to justice for their countless crimes, they must be
deported to Iran.
God curse this fraudulent resistance and its leaders Iranian masters. Without
any doubt, the mullahs are leading to death everyone connected to Hezbollah,
down to the last one of them.
Lebanon has long been under Hezbollah’s mere control, now is the time to reclaim
the state, restore its sovereignty, and eliminate Hezbollah’s grip.
As for the silence of certain Christian leaders, like the pharaonic “Abu al-Hul,”
it is disgraceful and a complete betrayal. Silence, in this case, is the
behavior of the dead.
*The author, Elias Bejjani, is a Lebanese expatriate activist
Author’s Email: Phoenicia@hotmail.com
Author’s Website:
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The End of Iran’s Reign of Terror and
Hezbollah's Demise
Elias Bejjani/October 06/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135390/I strongly recommend watching the five enclosed interviews posted
on my website,
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/.
These interviews are crucial as they reveal the trajectory of the region,
culminating in the conclusion that the mission of the criminal, repressive
Iranian Mullah regime is nearing its end. This regime, having served its role as
the Western alliance’s boogeyman, has frightened the Sunni Arab world into
accepting Israel. Every Arab nation has now recognized Israel, viewing Iran as
the true existential threat. Even Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has publicly
acknowledged that Israel could be a potential ally.
The anticipated event, either today or tomorrow, will be a massive Israeli
military strike against Iran, backed by international Western (NATO) forces and
with Arab blessings under the table. This attack will mark the first anniversary
of Hamas's barbaric jihadist invasion on October 7 last year, restoring Israel’s
deterrence and balance of power, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised.
Netanyahu declared just yesterday that Israel will strike Iran, shift the
regional balance, and obliterate Hezbollah by force, stripping it of its weapons
once and for all.
Lebanon’s Political Puppetry
Anyone counting on Nabih Berri, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, to lead
the efforts aiming to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence is as
deluded as someone hoping a wolf will guard sheep. Berri is nothing more than a
polished puppet of Hezbollah—a terrorist entity at its core and a servant of
Iran, disguised with a necktie to further deceive the people. Berri, along with
his Amal Movement and all other Shiite authorities, was militarily defeated and
eliminated during the "Iqlim al-Tuffah" battle
(March 1988) under Iranian
orders, with Syrian backing and Israeli assistance.
As for Najib Mikati, Lebanon's current PM, he’s nothing but a hypocritical
merchant whose shameful history and betrayal exposes his consistent service to
the Assad and Mullah regimes at Lebanon’s expense.
Regarding our Christian Maronite leaders in particular, and Christians in
general, it’s tragic that they have become nothing more than spineless,
politically and nationally emasculated traders, much like the traitorous
disciple who sold Christ to be crucified for 30 pieces of silver. These are the
worst leaders we’ve seen in 1,400 years of our history, with no exceptions,
whether civilians or clergy. Among the worst is Samir Geagea, whose
shameful silence throughout the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war has been deafening,
even as he prevents his supporters from expressing their views and concerns.
Sadly, his supporters are stupidly accepting the role of sheep.
In regards to former President Michel Aoun and his corrupt son-in-law, Gebran
Bassil, they are both a disgrace, and their pitiful status reflects that of the
rest of the politicians and the heads of the commercial, narcissistic political
parties. Sadly, our beloved Lebanon today is devoid of any national leadership,
both religious and political, which is unsurprising given that the Palestinian,
Syrian, and Iranian occupations since the 1970s have neutered the political and
religious class and molded them to serve their interests.
The Path to Lebanon's Liberation
The salvation of Lebanon will not come from the hands of the current leaders,
parties, or politicians who handed it over to foreign occupations, betrayed its
people, conspired against it, robbed its bank deposits, displaced and humiliated
its citizens, and reduced themselves to tools and empty puppets.
Lebanon’s solution lies in placing it under the guardianship of the United
Nations Security Council, enforcing international resolutions—namely the
Armistice Agreement, Resolution 1559, 1701, and 1680—by force under Chapter VII,
with the aim of rehabilitating the Lebanese people to govern themselves.
In the same context, Former Minister Youssef Salameh’s predictions in an
interview conducted with him yesterday are highly plausible in light of the
ongoing war between Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, and their other terrorist proxies:
He loudly with confidence and proves said:
The world western powers dealt with Hassan Nasrallah the same way they did with
Bashir Gemayel, Rafic Hariri, and Kamal Jumblatt—the four were assassinated
after their roles were finished. This historical reality supports the reasoning
behind Nasrallah’s eventual elimination.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard was created by NATO to divide Sunnis and
Shiites, forcing the Sunnis to recognize Israel, which is precisely what
happened. Hezbollah’s role has ended, and Nasrallah has been eliminated as a
result.
Iran is not a strong state and does not wield significant influence on the
international stage, not even in determining Nasrallah’s fate. Its regime’s
collapse is inevitable now that its purpose has been exhausted.
Militarily unbalanced wars, such as the one Hezbollah and Hamas are waging
against Israel, are suicidal endeavors, which is the current reality.
What protects Lebanon from Israel is the international system, not Hezbollah’s
so-called resistance lie and heresy.
Lebanon must move toward peace with Israel, just like every other Arab nation.
There will be no compromise on Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence. The
concept of "resistance" is obsolete, and no state can exist within the shadow of
a militia.
Walid Jumblatt’s daily bizarre stances are circumstantial, and his support for
Hezbollah does not reflect the Druze community’s stance, which opposes
Hezbollah.
Hassan Nasrallah has always been alienated from Lebanon’s national entity,
calling for an Islamic state and proudly declaring himself a soldier of Iran’s
Supreme Leader, loyal to the Iranian regime.
The assassination of Nasrallah signifies the end of a regional era—the Mullah
regime and its tentacles, including Hezbollah.
The era of Shiites political dominance in Lebanon is over, and Lebanon is on the
path to sovereignty, freedom, and independence.
Senior Hezbollah leader Wafiq Safa in 'critical
condition' after IAF strike in Beirut - report
Jerusalem Post/October 11/2024
Wafiq Safa "was seriously injured and is in critical condition," the sources
claimed. Senior Hezbollah security official Wafiq Safa was critically wounded
during a Thursday Israel Air Force strike on Beirut, sources told Sky News
Arabic on Friday. Safa "was seriously injured and is in critical condition," the
sources claimed. According to Israeli media, the Israeli military conducted two
airstrikes on the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh in the Lebanese capital on
Thursday in an attack that reportedly aimed to eliminate the Hezbollah leader.
Safa is Hebollah's Liaison and Coordination Unit head. Israeli media reports
also noted that Safa serves as Hebollah's Liaison and Coordination Unit head.
Subsequently, Sky News Arabic on Thursday reported that a security source
claimed Safa "was injured but is still alive." Three security sources told
Reuters the same thing on Thursday.
On Friday morning, CNN Arabic, citing a Lebanese security source, reported that
the Israeli airstrike targeting Safa had demolished a residential building.
Halevi: 'We will not stop until we return residents to
the North'
Jerusalem Post/October 11/2024
"On a peaceful border, defense is on one side; on a wartime border, defense must
be on both sides of the border with freedom of action," Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar
said. In a joint assessment meeting between IDF Chief of Staff
Lieutenant-General Herzi Halevi and ISA (Shin Bet) head Ronen Bar on Thursday on
developments in southern Lebanon, Halevi vowed to bring northern Israeli
communities home, Israeli media reported. The assessment meeting was held with
the commander of the Northern Command, the commander of Division 91, and several
other commanders. "We will not stop until we can return residents safely [to the
North]," Halevi said. He added, "If anyone considers rebuilding these villages
again, they will know that it's not worth constructing terrorist infrastructure
because the IDF will neutralize them again. We are operating across all arenas,
both in the Beqaa Valley and in Beirut, north and south of the Litani, and all
these efforts are working very effectively. What you are doing here is the most
important component for returning the residents. " Israel's multi-front war.
Halevi also discussed another major arena in the current war: the Gaza Strip,
and the seven divisions operating between the south, center, and north. “We
continue to operate against the enemy and will not stop until we ensure that we
can safely return the residents, not just now, but with a future outlook." The
statements also emphasized the importance of the holiday season and the IDF's
desire for Israel to observe it safely. Ronen Bar, Director of the Shin Bet,
said: “The State of Israel cannot protect its residents from terrorists solely
with shopping mall security guards, nor defend against rockets only by building
shelters. The solution must be found in the terrorists' nests and production
lines."He added, "On a peaceful border, defense is on one side; on a wartime
border, defense must be on both sides of the border with freedom of action. In
the last few years, we have seen Hamas entrench itself in Lebanon, and this will
intensify as they move out of Gaza and their focus shifts here." "We will
continue to pursue them everywhere. We will always remember the massacre of
October 7th, and we will ensure they remember the lesson of October 8th”.
WATCH: Israel Air Force strike eliminates Hezbollah
Radwan Force commander Araeb el Shoga
Jerusalem Post/October 11/2024
https://images.wcdn.co.il/f_auto,q_auto,w_1200,t_54,f_webp/3/7/8/4/3784216-46.jpg
A series of explosions that followed airstrikes on terror structures led the
military to identify additional weaponry hiding nearby. Israel Air Force fighter
jets carried out an attack on terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon and
eliminated Hezbollah terrorist Araeb el Shoga on Friday morning, the IDF
announced.
Al-Shaja'a was an anti-tank commander in Hezbollah's Radwan Forces’ Anti-tank
Missile Unit in Meiss El Jabal, southern Lebanon, and was responsible for
constant anti-tank fire toward northern Israel, the military stated. The
military also reportedly identified and struck a launcher that was prepared to
fire toward Israeli territory and IDF troops. IAF and IDF ground soldiers carry
out effective strikes on terror infrastructure IDF ground troops also worked in
conjunction with the air force to strike nearby terrorists operating inside a
structure adjacent to the IDF's operational points, the military said. This
strike led to several other secondary explosions in terror infrastructure
nearby, indicating the presence of large quantities of weapons and explosives
nearby, the IDF continued.This reportedly led to further strikes on terror
infrastructure
US Draws Roadmap to Disarm Lebanon’s Hezbollah
Washington : Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 11/2024
The United States has drawn a roadmap to end the war between Israel and
Lebanon’s Hezbollah, calling for the group's withdrawal from the border area and
its disarmament. Ambassador Robert Wood, US Alternative Representative for
Special Political Affairs, told the Security Council on Thursday that “for the
diplomatic resolution to be durable, the parties must fully implement Resolution
1701,” which calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the border area and the
deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon. The Council’s emergency
meeting was called by France. Wood called for enforcing an arms embargo and
“taking steps to help ensure that Iran does not resupply what remains of its
terrorist proxy.” He urged “Lebanon’s political leaders set aside their
differences and assemble a government that responds to the needs of the Lebanese
people.”“In other words: The solution to this crisis is a not a weaker Lebanon.
It’s a strong and truly sovereign Lebanon, protected by a legitimate security
force,” the Ambassador added. Wood urged the international community to condemn
Iran “for undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty,” saying “we must be prepared to
impose severe costs on Iran for flouting this Council’s resolutions.” The UN
political chief called the international community’s failure to stop escalating
military action in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria “damning” and warned that the region
is “dangerously teetering on the brink of an all-out war.”Undersecretary-General
Rosemary DiCarlo told the emergency meeting of the Security Council that every
effort must be made now “to reverse this cycle of violence and bring Lebanon and
Israel – and the region – back from the brink of catastrophe.” In Lebanon, she
said, Hezbollah militants and other armed groups must stop firing rockets and
missiles into Israel, and Israel must stop bombing Lebanon and withdraw its
ground forces. As for Lebanon's acting UN Ambassador Hadi Hachem, he told the
Council that the country is fully committed to the French-American initiative
for a 21-day cease-fire “during which we can settle outstanding border
issues.”He accused Israel of agreeing to the initiative “before reneging on it
and escalating its aggression.”
Hochstein: Washington Is Working 'Day and Night' to
Reach a Ceasefire in Lebanon
This is Beirut/October 11/2024
Hochstein in an interview with MTV. ©source: MTV
US envoy Amos Hochstein said on Friday that the US administration has been
working “day and night” to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible in Lebanon.
Speaking in an interview with MTV, he revealed that coordination is underway
with the Lebanese government and the army commander in order “to reach what the
people want” through the election of a president and the formation of a new
government. Hochstein made clear that resolution 1701 is “the foundation” to
build a better future for Lebanon. He stressed that work should be done not only
to enforce Resolution1701, but to make sure that all its provisions are duly
implemented. Hochstein commented on Thursday’s raid on Beirut in which 22 people
were killed and more than 100 injured, saying that it was “devastating.” He
pointed out that he is seeking a cessation of military operations. He also
emphasized that the United States has not given any green light for Israel’s
ground operation in Lebanon. The American envoy concluded by stressing that the
Lebanese president must be chosen by the Lebanese themselves, and that it is
time for Lebanon to be able to make decisions on its own and in its interest,
independently of international influences.
Two Soldiers Killed in South Lebanon Amid Ongoing Israeli
Raids
This is Beirut/October 11/2024
Two Lebanese army soldiers were killed and three were injured on Friday in an
Israeli airstrike next to an army checkpoint in the town of Kfar Yatar in south
Lebanon, an army statement said. The attack blocked the road and ambulance teams
encountered difficulties in evacuating the wounded. Israeli fighter jets carried
out relentless raids targeting several south Lebanese villages, including the
town of Naqoura, where the headquarters of the UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, is
located. Also on Friday, two UN peacekeepers were wounded in two explosions near
their observation tower, the second such incident in 24 hours, perpetrated by
the Israeli army. Moreover, Israeli artillery shelling on the village of Jibshit
killed four persons in a building which was completely destroyed. Warplanes also
struck villages in the districts of Tyre and Nabatieh, where casualties were
reported. An Israeli drone attacked the Civil Defense Center in the town of Tayr
Dibba, without causing casualties. In Beirut, a cautious calmed prevailed after
the Israeli airstrike that targeted Al-Nuwairi, Ras al-Nabaa and al-Basta
neighborhoods in the heart of Beirut on Thursday. Israeli spy drones flew
intensely and at a low altitude all day over the Lebanese capital.
While rubble removal operations continued in search of survivors, the Health
Ministry said the death toll of yesterday’s attack is 22 and more than 117
wounded. In the Beqaa region in east Lebanon, Israeli warplanes launched two
airstrikes on the town of Karak and one on the town of Budai, west of Baalbeck,
resulting in a preliminary death toll of five people. Two people were also
wounded and one is missing. A raid was also reported on Hosh al-Sayyed on the
border between Lebanon and Syria, as well as other villages in the area. For
their part, Hezbollah announced “targeting a gathering of Israeli soldiers in
and around the Yiftah barracks with a large rocket barrage.”The pro-Iranian
group also claimed responsibility for bombing “technical equipment placed on a
crane at the Abad site with a guided missile, scoring direct hits.”Additionally,
Hezbollah declared “targeting gatherings of Israeli soldiers in the Kfarsold
settlement with a large rocket salvo,” and “launching an aerial attack with a
squadron of drones on the air defense command base in Kiryat Eliezer in
Haifa.”Israeli media reported that a building in the industrial zone in Kiryat
Bialik in Haifa Bay was directly hit by rockets fired from Lebanon.
Two people were injured by an anti-tank missile in the town of Yaroun in the
Upper Galilee, while rockets fired from Lebanon fell in the Krayot area in Haifa
Bay, according to Israeli media.They also reported that “about 30 rockets were
fired from southern Lebanon towards the Galilee since Friday morning.”
Nawraj: Solidarity in the Face of War
Yara Germany/This is Beirut/October 11/2024
The NGO Nawraj has been supporting Lebanese people affected by the war since
October 8, 2023. In addition to providing emergency aid to displaced
individuals, Nawraj also assists those who have remained in their homes. To
continue supporting the 2,300 families it is committed to, Nawraj is appealing
for solidarity from everyone. To support Nawraj: +961 76 406 838 / nawraj@nawraj.org
- info@nawraj.org
Meerab Rises Above the Clamor of War
Bassam Abou Zeid/This is Beirut/October 11/2024
At the forthcoming conference in Meerab (Lebanese Forces Headquarters), the
statements delivered will be of paramount importance, regardless of the nature
and level of attendance. According to sources within the Lebanese Forces (LF)
this conference will provide a strategic roadmap for Lebanese patriots to
reclaim their homeland. If these plans are implemented, salvation will be within
reach; however, if they are overlooked and overshadowed by the “axis of war and
combat”, peace will remain out of grasp. In April, a conference was held at the
Lebanese Forces headquarters in Meerab to advocate for the implementation of
Resolution 1701. This initiative drew swift criticism from both allies and
opponents, with many questioning how such a topic could arise amidst the “Gaza
support front” declared by Hezbollah against the Israeli Army at the southern
border. Subsequent events have confirmed the validity of the LF position. Today,
the application of resolution 1701, which has become a central issue, is
requested by all. On Saturday, October 12, another conference will take place in
Meerab under the theme 'Defending Lebanon.' There's no doubt that parochial
quarrels will resurface on this occasion, at the risk of overshadowing the
essential issue: the fate of Lebanon and the Lebanese. Critics may assert to the
LF, “Now is not the time to focus on defending Lebanon,” while others will ask,
“Why does the LF seek to lead this movement?” Some will even go so far as to
downplay the importance of this conference, doubting its outcome. Furthermore,
some will once again accuse the LF of treason, collaboration and alignment with
Israel, challenging their audacity to advocate for Lebanon's defense through the
establishment of a legitimate State that governs the fate and decision-making of
the country and its citizens.
LF sources stress that the current circumstances are a great opportunity for
anyone who genuinely cares about Lebanon and its citizens to advocate
unequivocally and fearlessly for the necessity of establishing a State. This
step is vital to prevent the recurrence of the tragedies that the Lebanese
people are enduring today. Simply calling for the implementation of Resolution
1701 is inadequate for the time being; what is urgently required is the
implementation of Resolutions 1559 and 1680, providing for the disarmament of
Lebanese and Palestinian militias.
Any attempt to revive the debate on a defense strategy, or any other formula
whose main purpose is to by-pass the State and undermine its role, is now
unacceptable and must be rejected by all Lebanese. Furthermore, the presence of
illegitimate military forces is intolerable; the only entity entitled to possess
and procure weapons for the protection of Lebanon is the Lebanese Army. The LF
emphasized that those who evade this responsibility under various pretexts are
often the very individuals who fear confronting challenges for the sake of the
nation and its citizens. By prioritizing their personal interests over the
collective good of Lebanon, they bear responsibility for the ongoing loss of
lives, injuries, destruction, and displacement.
More UNIFIL Injuries in Israeli Shelling for the Second Day
This is Beirut/October 11/2024
UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon were targeted by the Israeli army on Friday,
the second time in 48 hours, resulting in additional injuries among the
multinational force. A statement by UNIFIL, indicated that “two peacekeepers
were injured in two explosions close to their observation tower.”“One was taken
to a hospital in Tyre, while the second is receiving treatment at UNIFIL’s
headquarters in Naqoura,” the statement said. “An Israeli army caterpillar hit
the perimeter causing several T-walls to fall, at our position in Labbouneh,”
the statement added, pointing out that “these incidents put again UN
peacekeepers at very serious risk.”UNIFIL also made clear that “this is a
serious development,” reiterating “that the safety and security of UN personnel
and property must be guaranteed.”“Any deliberate attack on peacekeepers is a
grave violation of international humanitarian law and Security Council
resolution 1701 (2006)” the statement concluded. On Thursday, UNIFIL declared in
a statement that “the Israeli army targeted a guard tower of the International
Emergency Force,” at the force’s headquarters in Naqoura. “Two peacekeepers were
injured after an Israeli Merkava tank fired at an observation tower at UNIFIL
headquarters in Naqoura,” it said in a statement. Additionally, the
international force accused the Israeli army of “repeatedly shelling” their
headquarters in Naqoura and neighboring positions.
Contributing Countries React to Incidents Targeting UNIFIL
This is Beirut/October 11/2024
Irish Foreign Minister Michael Martin denounced on Friday “the alleged attack by
Israeli forces which left two UN peacekeepers wounded” and charged that Israel
was becoming “increasingly hostile to UN troops.”In parallel, Irish Prime
Minister, Simon Harris, had expressed his “deep concern” at the reports but
Martin went further describing the incident as “a quite shocking extraordinary
development.” “The Israeli army's animosity towards UN forces and positions has
significantly increased,” he continued, emphasizing that “what happened over the
last 48 hours is completely unacceptable.” Additionally, Martin urged the
international community to “really put down a marker to Israel that this is
unacceptable behavior,” while speaking to media in southwest Ireland. It is
noteworthy that of the 10,000 personnel in the UNIFIL forces, tasked with
preserving calm in the southern part of Lebanon, 347 are from Ireland.
In a related development France’s Quai d’Orsay, or Foreign Ministry, said it had
summoned Israel’s ambassador to France following the fresh offensive by the
Israeli army on UNIFIL. The Ministry declared in a statement that “these attacks
constitute serious violations of international law and must cease
immediately.”It further stated, “the Israeli ambassador to France is being
called to the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs today in order for the
Israeli authorities to provide an explanation.” Two Blue Helmets were injured on
Thursday by Israeli fire at UNIFIL's headquarters in southern Lebanon, according
to the UN peacekeeping organization in the country. On Friday, UNIFIL also
declared that two other peacekeepers were injured after two explosions close to
their observation tower. France contributes some 700 troops to UNIFIL.
Berri's Statement: An Attempt to Bury Resolution 1559?
Natasha Metni Torbey/This is Beirut/October 11/2024
For Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, UN Security Council Resolution 1559 seems to
be a thing of the past. This is what the head of the legislature stated in an
interview on Thursday night with the local TV channel Al-Jadeed, saying that
1559 is “behind us,” and that “the only international resolution” on the agenda
is “1701.” This statement has sparked numerous reactions in political circles,
leading to various questions. What are the underlying stakes of Berri's
statement? Is he seeking to definitively turn the page on Resolution 1559? Is he
genuinely planning to implement 1701? Since its adoption, Resolution 1559 has
been a major point of contention in Lebanon, particularly on the issue of
Hezbollah's disarmament. For the allies of the pro-Iranian group, including the
Amal movement led by Berri, this resolution is viewed as international
interference aimed at weakening a key actor in the resistance against Israel.
Moreover, Hezbollah's supporters argue that the armed organization remains
necessary to defend Lebanon against threats from Israel. “For the Speaker of the
House, insisting on Resolution 1559 today no longer has practical meaning, since
one of the main goals of this resolution (the Syrian withdrawal) has been
achieved,” notes a political analyst who requested anonymity. However, “the
issue of Hezbollah's disarmament remains not only unresolved but has also lost
its centrality in international discussions, especially after the 2006 war and
the adoption of Resolution 1701,” the analyst continues. By making such
statements, Berri is seeking, according to the analyst, to “shift focus away
from this explosive issue to maintain Lebanon's relative stability and avoid
reopening a debate that could further polarize the country.” In other words, he
is initially trying to “reassure Hezbollah by avoiding confrontation on this
issue, in order to gain gradual concessions from them regarding the
implementation of 1701,” the analyst explains. As an ally of Hezbollah, and if
one follows this logic, Berri is therefore in a delicate position, attempting to
strike a balance between international pressure and Lebanon's internal dynamics.
“If he wants to ease international tensions and avoid direct confrontations with
Israel, he must send positive signals regarding the implementation of Resolution
1701,” says the analyst. Does his speech, then, reflect a desire to shift the
debate toward more pragmatic and immediate issues, such as managing tensions
with Israel within the framework of 1701? Would Hezbollah, whose position and
capabilities have significantly strengthened since 2006, be willing to make
concessions on its military role under a strict application of the resolution?
While Berri has recently made his position clear in favor of a ceasefire and the
implementation of 1701 (which explicitly references 1559), opposition forces
caution against taking this at face value.
On October 1, Berri revealed his support for a ceasefire and the implementation
of 1701 after meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Ain el-Tineh.
A similar scenario unfolded two days later, following a meeting that brought
together the heads of the legislative and executive branches with the former
leader of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Walid Joumblatt. However,
according to opposition forces, when Berri speaks of implementing 1701, he means
“a return to the situation that existed before October 7 (the date of Hamas'
offensive against Israel, ed.),” that is, a partial implementation of the
resolution without a total disarmament of Hezbollah. “Berri wants to send a
message by declaring that 1559 is ‘behind us:’ that the implementation of 1701
will not be possible either,” says Charles Jabbour, head of communications of
the Lebanese Forces (LF). “However, this is an international resolution, and it
is not up to the Speaker of the House to decide its fate, especially when we
know that if 1701 had been respected, we would not be where we are today,” he
insists. “This is why we will reiterate tomorrow, from Meerab, where we are set
to meet with opposition MPs, our commitment to Resolutions 1559 and 1701, and to
electing a President of the Republic who can ensure the full implementation of
these texts,” he adds.
Resolution 1559, adopted in 2004, called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops
from Lebanon, the dismantling of all militias, including Hezbollah, and the
organization of free elections. While the Syrian withdrawal was achieved in
2005, Hezbollah’s disarmament was never implemented.
Resolution 1701 was adopted in 2006 to end the 33-day war between Hezbollah and
Israel. It aimed to regulate the cessation of hostilities between the parties
involved in the conflict, to ensure the presence of the Lebanese army in
southern Lebanon, and to facilitate the expanded deployment of the United
Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in the region, as well as to impose an
arms embargo on Lebanon. However, 1701 has also never been fully implemented,
although it has helped maintain a certain degree of apparent stability for 18
years.
The Weaknesses of 1559 and 1701
While Berri continues to call for the implementation of 1701, Kesrwan MP and
Kataeb Party Vice-President Salim el-Sayegh believes that 1701, in its current
form, “is no longer sufficient and does not match the current reality.”
According to him, UNIFIL has failed in its mission, as it has not managed to
prevent Israeli aircraft from flying over Lebanese territory nor to stop the
rebuilding of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in the south of the country.
“We suddenly discover that there is an extensive underground network built under
the pretext of defending Lebanon and preventing an Israeli attack. This is
tangible proof that UNIFIL was only observing what was happening without taking
action,” says Sayegh.
“This is why we are calling today for an enhanced resolution, especially since
1559 did not provide a concrete plan for its full implementation, and the
Lebanese state neither had an action plan nor the national unity required to
disarm the militias,” he continues.
Furthermore, since it is not based on Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, Resolution
1559 has remained declarative, lacking the binding force of resolutions
typically issued by the Security Council.
There are two types of resolutions the Security Council can adopt: those based
on Chapter 7 of the aforementioned Charter, and those based on Chapter 6. In the
first case, resolutions have a binding character as they relate to matters of
international peace and security. If a state fails to apply them voluntarily or
through economic sanctions, the Security Council can intervene, sometimes using
military force. In the second case, which includes 1559, the resolutions are not
immediately enforceable.
“Resolution 1701 does not provide a roadmap for implementing 1559. It merely
mentions it and leaves it to the Lebanese parties, with international support,
to address the issue of Hezbollah’s arms,” notes Sayegh. Regarding its binding
nature, the MP interviewed by This Is Beirut (TIB) says, “1701 is generally, but
not explicitly, based on Chapter 7, but it is more accurately placed under
Chapter 6 and therefore has a semi-coercive mandate.” For it to be fully
binding, “interpretative declarations from the Security Council member states
are needed to extend the application of 1701 throughout Lebanese territory and
thus implement 1559.”For now, it seems that maintaining the status quo is
preferred, awaiting both the outcomes of ongoing but slow-moving negotiations
and the results of the US elections scheduled for next November. In the
meantime, the Israeli Prime Minister continues his mission to eliminate
Hezbollah by “razing” areas in Lebanon that pose a threat to his country’s
security.
PM Mikati: Hezbollah Agrees to Implement Resolution 1701;
Diplomatic Solution on the Table
This is Beirut/October 11/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced on Friday, following the Cabinet
session at the Grand Serail, that "the Cabinet has decided, at the request of
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to submit a request to the Security Council for
an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of Resolution 1701."He affirmed,
"A diplomatic solution is on the table, and Hezbollah, as a partner in the
government, agrees to implement Resolution 1701."Mikati clarified that the
government is "preparing a comprehensive Lebanese file for the Paris Conference
on October 24, with a focus on the urgent necessity of a ceasefire." He
emphasized, "We are committed to our rights and land, and we have repeatedly
affirmed Lebanon's adherence to Resolution 1701 in international forums," adding
that "what is happening is completely unacceptable." The Prime Minister pointed
out that "the assault on UNIFIL by the Israeli army is a crime that we condemn
and should be addressed by the international community, whose sanctity is being
violated."Regarding the presidential elections, he stressed "the urgent need to
elect a president for the republic as soon as possible."Regarding displaced
Lebanese and property damage, Mikati apologized "to the Lebanese for any
shortcomings," affirming that the government is doing "everything possible." He
noted that "the relevant ministers are taking steps to implement what is
feasible," stressing that "the constitution protects private property and cannot
be violated." He assured that matters at the airport, borders, and ports are
proceeding as they should.
Hezbollah’s Unexpected Vulnerabilities from Syrian Conflict
Involvement
This is Beirut/October 11/2024
By leveraging the vulnerabilities created by Hezbollah's participation in the
Syrian war, Israeli intelligence has dealt painful blows to the organization,
including targeted assassinations and the dramatic "pager" operation. After
decades of unresolved military confrontations, Israel seems to have gained the
upper hand over Hezbollah since September 1. The killing of prominent leaders
within the pro-Iranian militia, with the most high-profile being the
assassination of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, signals a major shift in
Israel's strategy and the power dynamics. These targeted operations have been
facilitated by a marked improvement in Israel’s intelligence capabilities. In
the 2006 war, Israel made several unsuccessful attempts to eliminate Nasrallah.
However, on the evening of Friday, September 27, the Israeli Army succeeded in
locating the Hezbollah leader in a bunker beneath an apartment complex in
southern Beirut.
Israeli media reports indicate that as many as 80 bombs were dropped on the site
to ensure he would not survive. “We will reach everyone, everywhere,” asserted
the pilot of the F-15 fighter jet involved in the operation, as reported by
Israeli media.
The Syrian predicament
Hezbollah's involvement in the Syrian conflict alongside Bashar al-Assad's
regime has been a key factor in Israel’s intelligence gathering. Through its
involvement in Syria, Hezbollah has had to broaden its operations, which has
expanded its organizational structure and potentially created vulnerabilities in
its internal security. Israeli intelligence services have capitalized on this
cross-border expansion to infiltrate the group and collect crucial information.
Israeli officials recently disclosed that the war in Syria has generated a
massive amount of publicly accessible data. The “martyr portrait posters”
displayed by Hezbollah to commemorate its fallen fighters are believed to have
offered insights into the fighters’ origins, the locations of their deaths, and
their social media networks. Moreover, the funerals of Hezbollah members often
attract high-ranking officials, providing intelligence services with
unprecedented opportunities for surveillance. A former senior Lebanese official,
quoted by The Financial Times, indicated that Hezbollah’s support for Assad has
resulted in increased vulnerability to foreign intelligence services. “They
(Hezbollah) had to expose themselves in Syria,” he said, emphasizing that the
group had to cooperate with Syrian and Russian intelligence services, which are
often infiltrated or monitored by Western agencies.
The Use of Technology for Intelligence Purposes
Israel has simultaneously benefited from its growing technological superiority.
With spy satellites, advanced drones, and sophisticated cyber-espionage
capabilities, Israeli intelligence services have been able to monitor and assess
Hezbollah's movements with unprecedented precision.
Unit 8200, specializing in electronic and digital intelligence, has played a
crucial role in intercepting communications and infiltrating various
communication devices. The algorithms developed by Unit 9900 have enabled the
processing of terabytes of images and data to detect even the smallest changes,
such as the emergence of new structures or changes in Hezbollah members'
routines. By monitoring the movement patterns and communications of Hezbollah
fighters, Israel has been able to effectively identify and target high-ranking
officials within the group. The “pager” attack is a striking example of this
technological sophistication. By sabotaging thousands of pagers used by
Hezbollah members, Israel managed to cause severe injuries and permanent
disabilities among Hezbollah fighters, while sowing confusion within the
pro-Iranian group. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear
that operations against Hezbollah will persist. “We have damaged and weakened
Hezbollah, but it remains a serious threat,” he stated. For the much weakened
pro-Iranian group, the challenge will be to reorganize and restructure its
leadership while facing mounting international pressure to disarm and the
Israeli Army's ground operations in southern Lebanon. Its involvement in the
Syrian military conflict, which was originally intended to bolster its regional
position, has unexpectedly revealed vulnerabilities that have ultimately proven
fatal for the group.
Israel-Hezb: Between Moralistic Stance and Strategic
Challenge
Michel Touma/This is Beirut/October 11/2024
It could simply be media posturing, but the reality is that news outlets and
social media networks continue to circulate reports of proposed truces or
ceasefires. A halt to hostilities, or at least a pause in the ongoing military
escalation, would certainly be timely — especially when considering the
humanitarian crisis triggered by Hezbollah’s unilateral move to reignite the
southern Lebanon front after more than 17 years of relative calm on the southern
border. So a ceasefire, but on what terms? At this point, it’s crucial to
differentiate between a purely moral stance — entirely legitimate — and the
broader macro-political and strategic stakes at play. These are two distinct
lenses for judgment, and conflating them risks dragging civilians back into the
same tragic situation against their will. Understanding the nuance between these
two approaches is vital to avoid repeating the same mistakes. A recurring theme
in the statements of senior local and international leaders is the urgent need
to return to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted
in August 2006 to end the war that Hezbollah, once again unilaterally and
without clear cause, initiated on July 12, 2006 under the close watch of the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards. In light of the current situation, it is crucial
to recall the true substance of Resolution 1701.The 2006 UN resolution extends
beyond a conventional ceasefire; while the cessation of hostilities is an
important aspect, it is not the primary focus. The resolution also explicitly
prohibits any illegal armed presence south of the Litani River, within the
UNIFIL zone, and forbids the storage of ammunition and military arsenals in that
area.
Most importantly, all countries were explicitly urged to refrain from
transporting arms and munitions to illegal organizations. A naval unit,
commanded by German officers from UNIFIL, was established to monitor maritime
traffic at the entrance to Lebanese ports to prevent arms smuggling.
Additionally, Resolution 1701 reinforces the implementation of prior resolutions
1559 (passed in 2004) and 1680 (passed in 2006), which call for the disarmament
of all militias, including Hezbollah, the demarcation of the borders between
Lebanon and Syria, and the extension of the Lebanese government's authority over
all its territory. It also emphasizes the need for strict respect for Lebanon's
sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity, and political independence under the
exclusive authority of the Lebanese government throughout the country.
Wilayat al-faqih obliges: beyond the ceasefire, Hezbollah has systematically
ignored and undermined various provisions of Resolution 1701. The pro-Iranian
party has exerted total control over the land borders with Syria, facilitating
the supply of weapons and ammunition, along with large-scale smuggling
operations that have drained the public treasury. Concurrently, the party's
military apparatus has clandestinely reestablished its presence in southern
regions, particularly near the Israeli border, while actively obstructing
UNIFIL's operations through aggressive actions carried out by "locals" under
false pretenses.
This meticulous sabotage resulted in a militia fait accompli, creating fertile
ground for the outbreak of conflict instigated by the armed wing of the Pasdaran
on October 8, 2023. The unspoken goal was to provide the mullahs' regime in
Tehran with an additional bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United
States. The precedents set by the wars and conflicts initiated by Hezbollah in
April 1996, July 2006, and October 2023 (excluding the episodes of 2008 and
2011) highlight the ongoing actions of the pro-Iranian party. Most importantly,
they underscore the fallacy of any ceasefire that is not backed by a strict and
effective mechanism for the full implementation of all Security Council
resolutions regarding the disbandment of militias and the restoration of
sovereignty and authority throughout the country. Although solidarity with
displaced civilians is undoubtedly crucial, the top priority must be the
implementation of concrete and stringent measures to prevent the populations of
southern Lebanon, the Beirut suburbs, and the Beqaa from being pulled into
another futile war in the future — one whose complexities and consequences they
may not fully grasp.
OP-EDClass Hatred Veiled in Humanitarianism
Johnny Kortbawi/This is Beirut/October 11/2024
Class hatred runs deep in Lebanon, and it's a reality that no one can deny. This
stems from the country's unresolved economic identity. In the capital, liberals
who champion free-market economics coexist with the remnants of old communists,
who are still committed to the ideals of social justice from the days of Lenin
and Trotsky. In this singular capital, social stratification erupted a few years
ago during the October 17 events known as the ‘Thawra,’ with each faction
invoking different justifications for their anger. On one side, leftist groups
revolted against banks despite investigations revealing that many individuals
who vandalized ATMs and shattered bank windows did not even hold bank accounts.
Thus, their actions seemed driven solely by class hatred. On the other side,
they targeted locations they classified as public property, such as the Beirut
Waterfront and the Yacht Club. They rely on the classification of coastal
properties, unaware of the tax revenue that would accrue to the State if
violations were addressed. Instead, they adopt this as a catchy slogan, much
like many others. During that time, they set up roasted chickpeas and shishas
along the yacht club's waterfront, proclaiming, “The beach belongs to us.”Five
years later, class hatred flared up once again during the displacement crisis as
individuals from various southern and Beqaa regions sought refuge in Beirut.
This was evident in the encroachment on private properties, including homes and
hotels, under the pretext of needing shelter. Some set up makeshift
accommodations in public spaces, while others chose to sit in front of tourist
attractions or upscale areas just meters away from the State-designated
shelters. If this isn’t class hatred, then what truly qualifies as class hatred?
Moreover, former MP Najah Wakim has resurfaced after years in the shadows,
exploiting the targeting of a local official in his building in Cola to regain
visibility. He has portrayed himself as both the target and a symbol of Beirut's
resistance against Israel.Upon his triumphant return to screens desperate for
guests, Wakim revived his class hatred, justifying the invasion of homes and
hotels in Solidere. To avoid any misinterpretation, he explicitly stated,
“Solidere is your right; reclaim it and house your children and families in its
buildings,” addressing the displaced individuals from various regions. Class
hatred is more dangerous than crises, as it starkly reveals a deep-seated lack
of belonging to a respectable national identity. It transforms any effort to
improve the economy into a narrative of opposition that implies citizens are
being robbed in revenge against the needy. While this narrative exists in
countries around the world, it receives extraordinary attention in Lebanon,
bolstered by certain newly affluent celebrities who seek likes and media
coverage, portraying themselves as champions of the oppressed. How absurd!
Southern European leaders want Lebanon's army to
reassert itself in the country's south
Menelaos Hadjicostis/The Associated Press/October 11, 2024
The leaders of nine southern European Union countries on Friday pledged support
for Lebanon’s armed forces to reassert control over the country’s southern
territory in hopes of bringing peace to an area plagued by fighting between
Israel and Hezbollah. In a joint declaration, the leaders of the so-called MED9
— Italy, Spain, France, Greece, Malta, Cyprus, Slovenia, Portugal and Croatia —
said they would “continue advocating for further support to Lebanon and its
people, including to the Lebanese Armed Forces which are called to play a
critical stabilizing role.”“The unfolding situation in the Middle East is
gravely alarming,” the declaration said. “In light of the reverberations of the
Gaza conflict on the wider region, we express our extreme concern with the
escalation of the military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.”French
President Emmanuel Macron told a news conference that the return of the Lebanese
armed forces to South Lebanon and the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty "are
essential to its peace and stability.”Macron didn't specify what form that
support would take, but said an Oct. 24 conference in the French capital would
aim to ramp up aid deliveries to Lebanon as humanitarian crisis looms while
helping to bolster the country's military and internal security forces. Ahead of
that conference, Macron and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said a meeting of G7
defense ministers would also look at ways of assisting Lebanon's army to move
into the south.
The EU leaders' declared support for Lebanon's armed forces comes as U.S.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Saudi, Qatari and French
counterparts about how the election of a new Lebanese president might reduce
tensions in the Middle East by getting Hezbollah to move its forces away from
Israel’s northern border. Meloni and Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez joined
with Macron in condemning what the French president called Israel's “deliberate
targeting” of soldiers belonging to a United Nations peacekeeping force in
southern Lebanon (UNIFIL). France, Spain and Italy contribute troops to UNIFIL.
“We condemn it, we do not tolerate it and we do not tolerate it happening
again,” Macron said. Both Sánchez and his Slovenian counterpart Robert Golob
backed Macron's call for a suspension of weapons deliveries to Israel in what
they see as an effective way to de-escalate the wars in Lebanon and Gaza. “We
haven’t sold weapons to Israel since the beginning of this war,” Sánchez said.
“And the logic is simple. Without weapons there is no war.”Cypriot President
Nikos Christodoulides, who hosted the meeting, said the leaders also discussed
irregular migration, which he reiterated needs to be tackled at source — the
migrants' countries of origin or the ones they transit through. Christodoulides
said he would raise with other EU leaders in Brussels ways of “creating those
conditions” within Syria — in collaboration with the United Nations refugee
agency and other international partners — that would allow the return of Syrian
refugees to their country. The Cypriot president said climate change was also on
the agenda, underscoring the need for joint action in the Mediterranean region
which he said is “particularly vulnerable." He added Cyprus reintroduced an
initiative in collaboration with Jordan to set up a regional firefighting hub,
with dedicated aircraft to be stationed on the island to respond to blazes in
the eastern Mediterranean.
LF Organizes National Conference to Outline ‘Roadmap to
Save Lebanon’
Beirut: Youssef Diab/October 11/2024
The Lebanese Forces party has called for a national conference to address the
Israeli war on Lebanon. The conference, which will take place at the party’s
headquarters in Maarab, aims to establish a political framework to halt the war,
in cooperation with Arab nations and the international community, according to
sources who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat. The sources said invitations have been
sent to opposition parties, independent MPs, and national figures, though key
groups such as Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Marada Movement have not
been invited.
They also noted that the goal is to “create a roadmap to rescue Lebanon from the
destruction caused by its involvement in the conflict and to alleviate the
suffering of the Lebanese people, who have endured violence, displacement, and
destruction.”
The conference will emphasize the need for peace, prosperity, and the
reconstruction of Lebanon, reflecting the will of the majority of the Lebanese
population who feel powerless in the face of ongoing turmoil, the sources
stressed.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, a source within the LF said that the party has
remained “strategically silent out of respect for the war’s victims” but now
believes it is time to speak up. The party’s leader, Dr. Samir Geagea, will
outline key solutions, including an immediate ceasefire, full implementation of
UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and the urgent election of a president.
These proposals are intended to appeal to both domestic and international
audiences, including Iran and Israel, according to the same source.
The call for a conference follows an earlier initiative by opposition MPs,
including those from the Lebanese Forces, which called for the Lebanese state to
reclaim control, distance Lebanon from regional conflicts, and commit to a
ceasefire and the full implementation of international resolutions. However,
that initiative did not yield significant results. While there are no guarantees
that the Maarab conference will lead to immediate solutions, the source in the
LF said that the party is determined to push forward, pointing that a follow-up
committee will be formed to engage with political forces in Lebanon and key
international stakeholders, including the ambassadors of the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council.
Israeli Strikes Kill 22 in Beirut as Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa
Evades Assassination
Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
Israeli strikes killed 22 people and injured more than 100 in central Beirut on
Thursday, Lebanese authorities said, as a senior Hezbollah official evaded an
Israeli assassination attempt in the city, according to three security sources.
Wafiq Safa, who heads Hezbollah's liaison and coordination unit responsible for
working with Lebanese security agencies, was targeted by Israel on Thursday
night but survived, the security sources said. The Israeli strikes hit a densely
packed residential neighborhood of apartment buildings and small shops in the
heart of Beirut. Israel did not issue evacuation warnings ahead of the strikes
and had not previously attacked the area. Lebanon's Health Ministry reported 22
people killed and 117 wounded. Among the dead was a family of eight, including
three children, who had evacuated from the south, according to a security
source. Reuters witnesses said at least one strike hit near a gas station and a
thick column of smoke was visible. There was no immediate comment on the
incident by Israel. After Israel killed a series of high-ranking Hezbollah
officials in recent weeks, including top leader Hassan Nasrallah, Safa was among
the few surviving senior figures as the group's upper echelons struggled to
reorganize. The attempt to kill Safa, whose role merges security and political
affairs, marked a widening of Israel's targets among Hezbollah officials, which
previously focused on the group’s military commanders and top leaders.
UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon in crosshairs of
Israel’s war on Hezbollah
The Associated Press/October 11, 2024
Israeli airstrikes hit the headquarters of the U.N. peacekeeping force and other
positions in south Lebanon in recent days, drawing widespread condemnation from
around the world. The force, known as UNIFIL, said new explosions hit its
headquarters on Friday morning, injuring two peacekeepers, a day after Israeli
forces struck the same position, injuring two others. As Israel escalates its
campaign against Hezbollah in the south, the 10,000-strong peacekeeping force is
increasingly in the crosshairs, highlighting the fragility of its personnel amid
an expanding ground invasion by Israel. The attacks are taking place in the
backdrop of worsening relations between Israel and the United Nations over the
way Israel has conducted its war in Gaza. In an unprecedented move, Israel
earlier this month said the U.N. chief was persona non grata in Israel,
signaling a new low in relations.Here’s a look at the U.N. peacekeeping force in
Lebanon and the latest developments:
What is UNIFIL?
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon was created in 1978 to oversee the
withdrawal of Israeli troops after Israel invaded and occupied south Lebanon.
Israel invaded again in 1982, and it was not until 2000 that it withdrew from
the country. In the absence of an agreed-upon border, the U.N. drew up a
boundary between Lebanon and Israel known as the Blue Line, which UNIFIL
monitors and patrols. The United Nations expanded UNIFIL’s original mission
following the monthlong 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, allowing
peacekeepers to deploy along the Israeli border to monitor the cessation of
hostilities between the two sides and patrol a buffer zone set up along the
border. The force currently has some 10,000 peacekeepers stationed in south
Lebanon drawn from around 50 countries. The troops patrol, monitor and report
violations of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006
fighting. The force also provides support to local communities.
What happened in the last two days?
On Thursday, UNIFIL said an Israeli tank “directly” fired on its headquarters in
the town of Naqoura, knocking down an observation tower and injuring two
Indonesian peacekeepers, who were hospitalized. It said its headquarters and
nearby positions “have been repeatedly hit” and that Israel “deliberately” fired
on and disabled the headquarters’ monitoring cameras. It also said the Israeli
army fired on a nearby bunker where peacekeepers were sheltering. On Friday,
UNIFIL said new explosions hit its headquarters, injuring two more peacekeepers,
although it did not directly blame Israel. It also said an Israeli army
bulldozer hit the perimeter of another of its positions in southern Lebanon
while Israeli tanks moved nearby. The attacks drew global condemnation. Italy,
which has about 1,000 soldiers deployed in south Lebanon, and France summoned
the Israeli ambassadors in protest. Italy's defense minister said the attacks
were possible “war crimes.” Human Rights Watch, in a statement, used similar
language. Tensions between the two sides had been mounting for days. Earlier
this month, Israel asked UNIFIL to move its personnel further north, which the
peacekeeping force refused to do. “We won’t accept the justification that
Israeli military forces had previously alerted UNIFIL that some of its bases had
to be abandoned,” Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said Thursday at a press
conference in Rome, calling the attacks “not an accident nor a mistake.”
What has Israel said?
The Israeli army has expressed deep concern over Thursday's incident and says it
is conducting a thorough review at the highest levels of command to determine
the details. On Friday, it said its soldiers were responding with fire to an
immediate threat against them, adding that the army had instructed UNIFIL
personnel to enter into protected spaces and remain there, hours before the
incident. It also accused Hezbollah of deliberately operating near U.N. posts,
thereby endangering their personnel. There have been several incidents during
the current war where UNIFIL said that Israel had shot at patrol vehicles or
shelled their positions. The United Nations peacekeeping force has had a
troubled history with Israel. In 1996, during a 17-day Israeli offensive against
Hezbollah, Israel shelled a United Nations compound near the village of Qana
where hundreds of displaced civilians were sheltering. The attack killed 106
civilians, including at least 37 children. Four Fijian soldiers assigned to
UNIFIL were seriously injured.
How does this affect the mission?
The Israeli military is asking that the peacekeeping force move 5 kilometers (3
miles) north to avoid being caught in the fighting between its troops and
Hezbollah militants. That effectively would impede the peacekeeping force from
doing its mission. The U.N. peacekeeping chief, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, told an
emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council Thursday that UNIFIL would not
evacuate its personnel, but because of air and ground attacks they cannot
conduct patrols. He said UNIFIL operations have virtually come to a halt since
late September, when Israel expanded its campaign against Hezbollah in the
south. “Peacekeepers have been confined to their bases with significant periods
of time in shelter,” he said, adding that the security environment has also
presented challenges for the resupply of fuel, food and water for U.N.
positions. Later Thursday, Lacroix said 300 peacekeepers in frontline positions
had been temporarily moved to larger bases, and that plans to move another 200
will depend on security conditions as the conflict escalates. He said UNIFIL had
decided to reduce its footprint “at the most affected U.N. positions by 25%.”On
Oct. 3, he told reporters that in some places in southern Lebanon, the number of
peacekeepers had been reduced by about 20%. Nick Birnback, U.N. peacekeeping’s
chief of strategic communications, said: “UNIFIL has remained in its positions
along the Blue Line without interruption since its establishment.” The Italian
minister also reiterated that a final decision on whether to stop the UNIFIL
mission in southern Lebanon for security reasons is up to the U.N.
Israel's deadliest strike in central Beirut leaves Lebanese
stunned as they dig through the rubble
Bassem Mroue/BEIRUT (AP)/October 11, 2024
Rescue workers searched through the rubble of a collapsed building in central
Beirut on Friday morning, hours after two Israeli strikes hit the Lebanese
capital, killing at least 22 people and wounding dozens. The air raid was the
deadliest attack on central Beirut in over a year of war, hitting two
residential buildings in neighborhoods that have swelled with displaced people
fleeing Israeli bombardment elsewhere in the country. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar
television and Israeli media said the strikes aimed to kill Wafiq Safa, a top
security official with the group. Al-Manar said Safa was not in either building
at the time. The Israeli military had no comment on the reports. Thursday
night's strikes came as Israel escalates its campaign against Hezbollah with
waves of heavy airstrikes across Lebanon and a ground invasion at the border,
after a year of exchanges of fire between the two rivals. The same day as the
Beirut explosions, Israeli forces fired on United Nations peacekeepers in
southern Lebanon and wounded two peacekeepers from Indonesia, drawing widespread
condemnation. Hezbollah has expanded its rocket fire to more populated areas
deeper inside Israel. While disrupting life for Israelis, most of Hezbollah’s
barrages have not caused casualties. But early Friday, an anti-tank missile
fired from Lebanon killed a man from Thailand working on a farm in northern
Israel. In Beirut’s Burj Abi Haidar neighborhood, civil defense members and
municipal workers dug through the pile of concrete and twisted metal from a
three-story building knocked down by Thursday night’s strike. In an adjacent
building that was badly damaged, Ahmad al-Khatib stood in the apartment of his
in-laws where he, his wife, Marwa Hamdan, and their 2 1/2-year-old daughter,
Ayla, suffered injuries. He had just picked up his wife from work and she was
performing the evening Muslim prayers at home when the blast hit. “The world
suddenly turned upside down and darkness prevailed,” said the 42-year-old, tears
running down his cheeks. He pulled his daughter out from under the debris of a
wall that collapsed in a bedroom. Al-Khatib, who works for the postal service.
said he found the force of the explosion had thrown his wife against a wall and
a piece of metal had hit her in the head.
“I looked in her face and shouted, ‘Say something!’” he said, but she only
responded with sounds of pain. His wife remains in the ICU at a Beirut hospital.
His daughter suffered only minor injuries.
Mohammed Tarhani said he had moved in with his brother nearby in the
neighborhood after fleeing around southern Lebanon to escape airstrikes the past
weeks. His children were out on the veranda, and he was in the living room when
the strike hit. “We rushed out to look for the children,” he said. “Where is one
supposed to go now?" Civil defense official Walid Hashash said they don’t expect
more bodies under the rubble as no people are missing. He added that once
operations are over they will issue a final death toll. Hezbollah began firing
rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in support of Hamas and the Palestinians,
drawing Israeli airstrikes in retaliation. Israel says its stepped-up campaign
since late September aims to push Hezbollah away from the border to allow tens
of thousands of its citizens evacuated from the area to return home.
More than 2,100 Lebanese –- including Hezbollah fighters, civilians and medical
personnel — have been killed the past year by Israeli strikes, more than two
thirds of them in the past few weeks. Hezbollah attacks have killed 29 civilians
as well as 39 Israeli soldiers in northern Israel since October 2023 and in
southern Lebanon since Israel launched its ground invasion on Sept. 30. So far,
Israeli troops have been operating in a narrow strip of a few kilometers (miles)
along the border. The war threatens to spiral even further, with Israel aiming
to strike a crippling blow to its longtime adversary Hezbollah. Netanyahu this
week warned Lebanese they would suffer the same destruction that Israel’s
campaign against Hamas has inflicted in Gaza unless they take action against
Hezbollah. Israel has also vowed to strike back against the Lebanese group’s
supporter, Iran, after it launched some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel last
week. Iran’s barrage was in retaliation for previous Israeli strikes that killed
Hamas’ leader in Tehran and senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard figures in
Lebanon.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday reiterated U.S. support for Israel’s
escalated campaign against Hezbollah. He said Israel had a “clear and very
legitimate” interest to try to ensure the return of tens of thousands of its
citizens who were evacuated from their homes near the border because of
Hezbollah fire since last October. He told a news conference after attending an
annual meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Laos that the
U.S. is “extremely focused” on reaching a diplomatic solution to the war.
Meanwhile the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, was
rearranging some of its personnel after its positions were repeated hit by
Israeli forces Thursday. UNIFIL said an Israeli tank directly fired on an
observation tower at the force’s headquarters in the town of Naqoura, Lebanon,
and that soldiers attacked a bunker near where peacekeepers were sheltering,
damaging vehicles and a communication system. It said an Israeli drone was seen
flying to the bunker’s entrance. The Israeli military acknowledged opening fire
at a U.N. base in southern Lebanon on Thursday and said it had ordered the
peacekeepers to “remain in protected spaces.”Afterward, the U.N. peacekeeping
chief said 300 peacekeepers in frontline positions on southern Lebanon’s border
have been temporarily moved to larger bases. Plans to move another 200 will
depend on security conditions as the conflict escalates. Jean-Pierre Lacroix
told an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council that peacekeepers with
UNIFIL are staying in their positions, but because of air and ground attacks
they cannot conduct patrols.UNIFIL, which has more than 10,000 peacekeepers from
dozens of countries, was created to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli troops
from southern Lebanon after Israel’s 1978 invasion. The United Nations expanded
its mission following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, allowing
peacekeepers to patrol a buffer zone set up along the border. Israel accuses
Hezbollah of establishing militant infrastructure along the border in violation
of the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war.
Israeli Tank Fires on UNIFIL Base in Lebanon’s Naqoura
Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
The UN peacekeeping force said Friday that an Israeli tank fired on its
headquarters in the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura, hitting an observation
tower and wounding two peacekeepers, who were hospitalized. Israeli forces had
fired on positions used by the UN peacekeepers on Wednesday and Thursday, the UN
force said. The UNIFIL force said two of its peacekeepers were injured in one of
the incidents. The Israeli military acknowledged opening fire at a UN base in
southern Lebanon on Thursday and said it had ordered the peacekeepers to “remain
in protected spaces.” Israel is now at war with Hamas in Gaza and its ally
Hezbollah in Lebanon, which began firing rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, 2023.
Israel recently escalated bombardment in Lebanon and invaded a strip inside the
Lebanese border, vowing to push out Hezbollah fighters. Israel's UN Ambassador
Danny Danon on Thursday recommended "UNIFIL relocate 5 km (3 miles) north to
avoid danger as fighting intensifies.”
Israel faces international criticism after attacks on U.N.
bases in Lebanon
Darryl Coote/UPI/October 11, 2024
Israel has come under international criticism after its military attacked U.N.
bases in southern Lebanon, causing damage and injuring two peacekeepers. In a
stern and direct statement, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon said two
peacekeepers were injured Thursday morning after an Israel Defense Forces tank
fired and hit a UNIFIL's Naqoura headquarters tower, causing them to fall. The
injuries sustained by the peacekeepers were not serious, but they remain
hospitalized, UNIFIL said. Israel has also been accused of firing upon other
U.N. bases, one in Labbouneh and another in Naqoura, causing damage to
both.Indonesia identified the injured peacekeepers as Indonesian
nationals.Before the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, Ambassador
Hari Prabowo condemned that Israeli attack as "deliberate" and "a blatant
attempt to spread terror on the ground to intimidate both peacekeeping mission
and International community," according to a statement published the mission's X
account. According to UNIFIL, there are about 10,541 peacekeepers from 50
contributing nations in Lebanon to monitor the cessations of hostilities between
Lebanon and Israel and help ensure humanitarian access to the civilian
population.UNIFIL was created by the Security Council in March 1978. "This is
unacceptable," Hari said. "Let me be clear: those who stand by the cause of
peace will not be afraid of bullies and perpetrators of genocide."Two Italian
bases of the UNIFIL mission had also been hit by Israel in the recent strikes.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spoke over the phone Thursday afternoon
with Gen. Stefano Messina, commander of the U.N. peacekeeping mission's Western
Sector, and was updated on the attacks. A readout of the call states that Italy
has formally lodged a protest with Israel and reiterated "that what is happening
near the bases of the UNIFIL continent is not admissible."Italy has summoned the
Israeli ambassador, it said. Italy's minister of defense, Guido Crosetto, went a
step further and said the attack "may constitute a war crime." In a press
conference Thursday, he said that attack "represented a very serious violation
of international military law." "This was not a mistake and not an accident," he
said. France's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday also issued a statement
expressing "deep concern" following the attacks and said it was "waiting for
explanations from the Israeli authorities." "The protection of peacekeepers is
incumbent upon all parties to a conflict," the ministry said. "France calls on
all the parties to abide by this obligation and to allow UNIFIL to continue
carrying out its mandate. That includes respecting its freedom of movement."
Israel attacks on UN in breach of international law -
Harris
Caitriona Perry - BBC News/October 11, 2024
Simon Harris is holding a press conference. He has short greying hair, and is
wearing a red tie and grey blazer. The Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Simon
Harris has described Israel’s attack on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon as a breach
of international law. Speaking to BBC News in Washington DC, Harris said it was
an "extraordinarily concerning development".He described the attacks on three
United Nations Interim Force positions in Lebanon (UNIFIL) as "really dangerous,
despicable attacks on peacekeepers". Ireland has 379 troops in Lebanon as part
of UNIFIL peacekeeping mission. The Taoiseach said that he was protesting "at
the highest levels" in relation to the attack, and said that the United Nations,
and all of the countries making up the peacekeeping mission should "speak with
one voice" about what he called Israel's breach of international law. However,
he said he was concerned that "Israel doesn't listen".
He added that Israel had "a right to defend itself, a right to live in peace and
security" and that no-one disputed that but “international law has to be
followed, and proportionality also has to be due” but neither of those tests are
currently being met, he said. He said he had spoken to the US President Joe
Biden twice in recent days, including at an hour-long meeting in the Oval Office
on Wednesday. He said he had also spoken to UN Secretary General Antonio
Guterres about the matter. None of the Irish peacekeepers were injured in
Thursday's attacks.
Two Indonesian soldiers were injured. But the Taoiseach said that the IDF had
positioned themselves at a UNIFIL outpost which was being manned by about 30
Irish peacekeepers but that had now ceased following UN and US intervention.
Israel has requested that the UNIFIL peacekeepers withdraw from Southern
Lebanon, but Taoiseach Harris rejected that. He said: “We cannot have a
situation where aggression can force a peacekeeping mission to leave”.Harris
said the IDF and Hezbollah needed to “respect the role of our peacekeepers” and
what was needed was an “urgent de-escalation” and a ceasefire. Israel claimed
that the failure of the UN to enforce the 1701 resolution which called for a
demilitarized zone and the disarmament of Hezbollah had been partly to blame for
the current conflict. Harris said: “It’s very hard to take a lecture from Israel
in terms of holding UN resolution right now, or indeed international law, when
we’ve seen completely disproportionate war and the impact that that has had from
the humanitarian crisis point of view of civilians, including children”.
The Taoiseach said there were “significant lessons” that could be learned from
the Northern Ireland peace process, and the first was to “never allow the world
to believe that a terrorist organisation is the same as a country”. Ireland is
one of several European countries that has recognised the state of Palestine.
The Taoiseach said it took that decision because “we know Palestine is not Hamas."
He said: "Hamas is a despicable, disgusting terrorist organisation should be
condemned outright by all right thinking people, but we know what it's like in
Ireland to have efforts to hijack and sabotage your national identity and your
flag by terrorists, and we can never stand for that”.
US sees a window for a new push to break political
deadlock in Lebanon to ease conflict
Matthew Lee/The Associated Press/October 11, 2024
With Israel’s sabotage and military operations in Lebanon taking out many of
Hezbollah’s senior leaders, some in Washington and elsewhere believe there may
be a window for a new push to break the political deadlock in Lebanon to try to
ease escalating war.
To that end, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone separately Friday
with acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and parliament speaker Nabhi
Berri about the need to resolve the situation, the State Department said.
Earlier in the week, Blinken talked with his Saudi, Qatari and French
counterparts about how a resolution — particularly the election of a new
Lebanese president — might reduce tensions in the Middle East by getting
Hezbollah to move its forces away from Israel’s northern border to the line set
out in a U.N. Security Council resolution ending the 2006 war between Israel and
Hezbollah. “It’s clear that the people of Lebanon have an interest, a strong
interest, in the state asserting itself and taking responsibility for the
country and its future," Blinken told reporters Friday in Laos. "The presidency
has been vacant for two years now, and for the Lebanese people, having a head of
state would be very important.”He said Lebanon's future is for its people to
decide and no one else, including “any outside actor, whether it’s the United
States, Israel, or any of the many actors in the region.”
The U.S. and others have been pressing for years for an end to the political
deadlock in Lebanon to no avail. The country’s sectarian power-sharing system
has always been prone to stalemate. The U.S. blames the two-year presidential
vacuum on resistance to compromise by Iran-backed Hezbollah, which is considered
a legitimate political party in Lebanon and has been part of its government for
nearly two decades despite being designated a terrorist organization by the
U.S., Israel and others. After the term of former President Michel Aoun ended in
October 2022, Lebanon’s deeply divided parliament met several times to elect a
successor and failed every time. Hezbollah has been backing Sleiman Frangieh, a
Christian politician allied with the Shiite group. The opposing faction has put
forward a series of names, but the man widely seen as Frangieh’s main
competition — although he has not officially declared his candidacy — is the
Lebanese army commander, Gen. Joseph Aoun, who is generally seen as close to the
U.S.
In the meantime, the worsening political paralysis and stalled measures to
alleviate a crippling economic crisis have plunged three-quarters of the
population into poverty. But now, U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of
anonymity to discuss current Biden administration thinking, said there may be a
window for movement in the wake of the militant group's recent degradation at
the hands of Israel. That view is not universally shared in Washington, with
some officials arguing that Hezbollah is too entrenched in Lebanon's political
scene, its military and its civil and social services for its influence to be
eradicated. Yet, even the skeptics are willing to give it a try, officials said.
As he made his way home from Laos, Blinken spoke with Mikati and Berri to
reaffirm the importance of stabilizing the political crisis. Blinken stressed
U.S. commitment to a diplomatic solution to implement the U.N. resolution,
allowing civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border to return to their
homes, and “the need to fill the presidential vacancy through democratic means
that reflect the will of the Lebanese people for a stable, prosperous, and
independent Lebanon,” the State Department said in near identical statements.
America's top diplomat said similar in discussions over the past week with Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Al
Thani, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and French Foreign Minister
Jean-Noel Barrot. “What I’m getting from these conversations is a strong desire
not only on the part of the many countries that are concerned about Lebanon, but
especially the Lebanese themselves to actually see the state stand up, assert
itself, take responsibility for the lives of its citizens,” Blinken said earlier
in Laos. He is expected to attend an international conference on Lebanon hosted
by France later this month, U.S. officials said. The U.N. resolution, whose
terms have never fully been enforced, called for Israeli forces to fully
withdraw from southern Lebanon after a monthlong war with Hezbollah in 2006,
while the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers would be the exclusive armed
presence in the area. Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on
Lebanon, a nonprofit that aims to build stronger U.S.-Lebanon ties, said the
group has high regard for Aoun, the Lebanese army commander, and “his leadership
of the only fully functioning institution in Lebanon.” “We do not think it is in
the interest of Lebanon for outside parties to weigh in on the country’s
sovereign right to elect their own president,” Gabriel said. “There is an
opportunity right now for Lebanon’s parliamentarians to convene and elect a
clean, competent, and reform-oriented president who can form a government that
can steer Lebanon through what is a dangerous but critical phase.”
UNIFIL to Meet after Israeli Forces Fire at its Mission in
Lebanon
Paris: Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
France and Italy plan to hold a meeting of the European countries contributing
to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), after an Israeli force
was accused of firing on its headquarters in South Lebanon, according to the
French Ministry of Armed Forces.
A video conference meeting, decided during a meeting between French Minister
Sebastien Lecornu and his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto, will be held next
week on a date that has yet to be specified. Alongside France and Italy, Spain
and Ireland also contribute to UNIFIL as European member states. On Thursday,
Crosetto said the “shooting” at the headquarters of the UN peacekeeping force in
Lebanon is “intolerable.”Two peacekeepers were injured as a result of the
shooting, causing concern in Italy, which is the largest Western contributor to
UNIFIL in terms of personnel. “These incidents are unacceptable and must be
carefully and resolutely avoided,” Crosetto said in a statement. The minister,
who summoned the Israeli ambassador to Rome in the aftermath of the incident,
called for promoting de-escalation in South Lebanon and the restoration of
international law, according to an Italian Defense Ministry statement. The UN
peacekeeping mission is stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities
along the demarcation line with Israel -- an area that has seen serious clashes
between Israeli troops and Hezbollah.
AMCD Applauds Israel’s Targeting of Hezbollah’s Leadership
AMCD/September 30, 2024
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy applauds Israel’s precision
targeting of the top Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon, expressing relief that the
terrorist organizations’ stranglehold on Lebanon is broken and hope that
Lebanese civil society will reassert itself, take back control of their country,
and that Beirut will reemerge as the “Paris of the Middle East” it once was.
Jared Kushner called the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, and
other top leadership the most important development for Middle East peace “since
the Abraham Accords.” He argues that the destruction of Hezbollah now leaves
Iran’s nuclear arsenal vulnerable to elimination.
“The top European and American foreign policy officials have argued for years
that Hamas and Hezbollah were part of the framework that had to be appeased in
order to achieve peace,” said AMCD co-chair Tom Harb. “Israel has refused to
accept this received wisdom from the foreign policy establishment, and as a
result has opened the possibility of renewed peace and prosperity, not only for
Lebanon, but for the entire Middle East. The people of Lebanon are extremely
relieved. Hezbollah was an anchor dragging the entire society down.”
“The Obama effort to re-align American foreign policy as favorable to the
Islamic Republic of Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, in other words, to
openly side with America’s Islamist enemies, has proven to be an abject
failure,” continued AMCD co-chair John Hajjar. “The Islamic Republic is the
enemy of the entire civilized world including those Sunni Arab states who reject
fundamentalism and desire to join the modernity, namely the Gulf States and now
Saudi Arabia”
“Israel may be able to push the remnants of Hezbollah in Lebanon north beyond
the Litani River and this will enable the implementation of United Nations
Security Resolution 1701, the disarming and disbanding of those remnants,” added
foreign policy expert and AMCD advisor Walid Phares. “Israel is winning the
psychological battle so that the civil population of Lebanon feels emboldened to
turn against Hezbollah and retake control of their country.”
“The prospect for a counter-revolution in Iran has suddenly appeared as well,”
added former AMCD executive director, Rebecca Bynum. “If Israel goes ahead and
finishes the job by taking out or seriously degrading Iran’s nuclear facilities,
the Islamic Republic may be unable to retain control of the population, which
has been suffering under their brutal dictatorship since the revolution of 1979.
Opposition leadership under the son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi, seems poised
to take advantage of this unique opportunity.”
Said Mr. Pahlavi: “Hezbollah will be defeated. The Islamic regime in Iran will
also be defeated. The Iranian people, and all those in the region who seek
peace, will emerge victorious.” M. Pahlavi has previously expressed his desire
for Iranian peace with Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has released a statement aimed at the Iranian people
and offering them a better future: “Imagine if all the vast money the regime
wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children’s
education, in improving your healthcare, in building your nation’s
infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need….When the
Iranian people are free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than most
people think — everything will be different. Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish
people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace….Iran will thrive as
never before.”
Israel, by its bold determination has reset the table in the Middle East. AMCD
stands with leadership in the region working toward openness to the world,
freedom for their people, and a true pluralist democratic outcome for both
Lebanon and Iran.
The countdown to Nasrallah’s assassination began with
Majdal Shams
David Daoud/ MENASource/October 11/ 2024 |
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/nasrallah-hezbollah-majdal-shams-assassination/
He certainly didn’t know it, but Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah
signed his death warrant on July 27. That day, an errant Hezbollah rocket landed
on a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, where it killed twelve
children—Israeli by citizenship but Syrian Druze by ethnicity. Hezbollah
deployed every rhetorical and propaganda trick possible to deny responsibility,
abetted by the political and spiritual leadership of the children’s
co-religionists in Lebanon. But the cover-up could only work on a domestic
audience and would not stay Israel’s vengeance. When that came, it was
intentionally painful: assassinating Hezbollah’s chief-of-staff Fuad Shukr three
days later.
Assassinating Shukr crossed all of Hezbollah’s red lines. The Israelis killed
him in Haret Hreik, in the heart of Hezbollah’s “Dahiyeh” south Beirut
stronghold, while causing incidental civilian casualties. The assassination
carried insult in addition to injury: Israel openly claimed the attack and
demonstrated the degree to which its intelligence apparatuses had penetrated the
organization. Shukr, after all, was another Hezbollah “ghost commander,” whose
anonymity had been built up by the organization over decades. And the Israelis
managed to lure him to his death with a simple telephone call.
Arguably, this attack was meant to push Hezbollah’s limits. Throughout the war
of attrition that Hezbollah initiated against Israel on October 8, 2023, the
Israelis had been probing the group’s responses for weaknesses and limitations.
The Israelis weren’t doing this gratuitously. Hezbollah’s daily attacks had
virtually depopulated the frontier and were raining destruction on the area’s
civilian objects and infrastructure.
Hezbollah was refusing to back down until a prior Gaza ceasefire—an unacceptable
condition for the Israelis because this would have allowed Hamas to survive and
regenerate to attack Israel again in the future. It would have decimated Israeli
deterrence by having the Resistance Axis impose terms—i.e., the halting of its
operations in Gaza—upon Israel after the setback of October 7. Finally, it would
have allowed Hezbollah to claim the unprecedented victory of pushing the
Israelis out of Israel and preventing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from
enabling their return, which would vastly boost Hezbollah’s Lebanese and
possibly its Arab popularity on the basis of the group’s apparent capability of
“liberating Palestine from the river to the sea,” in Nasrallah’s oft-repeated
words.
However, the Israelis wanted to return their citizens to their homes in genuine
safety, not just to a superficial quiet where they would live in the shadow of a
victorious Hezbollah, made all the more ominous by October 7, 2023, and
Hezbollah’s twin “Liberation of the Galilee” plan. How Hezbollah would respond
to Shukr’s assassination would force Hezbollah to expose its limits—and inform
Israel’s next steps.
In stages, however, Hezbollah’s reaction revealed just how much the group feared
a full war with Israel. Hezbollah waited a full month before retaliating. In the
interim, Israel and Hamas were engaged in ceasefire negotiations, which, if
successful, would have granted Hezbollah a face-saving off-ramp from the
conflict and from responding to Shukr’s assassination. Shukr’s death, they could
claim, was a worthwhile price to be paid in a battle where the Resistance Axis
ultimately emerged victorious by bringing Israel to heel. In the interim,
Hezbollah filled the time gap with worn propaganda: Nasrallah claimed Israel’s
anticipation of a retaliatory attack was part of their punishment and
claimed—without evidence—that this anticipation was hurting Israel’s morale and
economy. In one of the group’s typical exercises in theatricality, Hezbollah
also uncovered its Imad 4 underground tunnel facility. Though unlikely to be a
genuinely strategic asset, the revelation had the intended effect of shoring up
Hezbollah’s image among its supporters, convincing the more gullible among them
that the group possessed tunnels reaching Tel Aviv.
When the negotiations between Israel and Hamas faltered, Hezbollah’s excuses ran
out. Now, it had to respond—and its August 25 response was an utter failure. The
Israeli Air Force preempted most of it and bombed an additional approximately
6,000 Hezbollah targets in the process. Israel’s defensive array neutralized the
remainder, an estimated 210 rockets (Hezbollah claimed to have fired 320 total)
and twenty loitering munitions. Furthermore, this barrage of projectiles—meager
relative to Shukr’s value and to the humiliation of the Israeli strike—failed to
reach their intended targets, according to Hezbollah: Mossad and Israeli
Military Intelligence Unit Headquarters in northern Tel Aviv’s Glilot.
Hezbollah’s follow-up to this failure was pure theater. The group’s mouthpieces
immediately shifted into claiming success, as did Nasrallah in a speech later
that day. The late secretary-general denied Israel’s successes and exaggerated
Hezbollah’s, claiming that the rockets had distracted Israel’s Iron Dome
batteries just enough for the suicide drones—“our sources confirm,” said
Nasrallah—to reach their intended targets in Glilot. In the coming days,
Hezbollah’s propaganda outlets would try to buttress the legitimacy of
Nasrallah’s claims with seemingly legitimate reports, first quoting
“trustworthy” but anonymous sources “inside the Occupation Entity,” and weeks
later “trusted” but still unnamed “European security sources,” that the attack
had not only succeeded but had felled twenty-two Israeli officers and wounded
seventy-five others.
This damage control was intended for Hezbollah’s support base. If the group
could convince its base that it had been able to match the Israeli escalation in
kind—thus demonstrating its alleged ability to maintain the balance of pain with
Israel, which forms the basis of much of its popular support—then it could close
the file on Shukr without provoking a larger Israeli counter-response.
Under the old rules of the game, this performance would have done just that. But
Hezbollah, which had misread Israel on October 8, 2023, did so again. The
Israelis, it would turn out, were in no mood to play by the old rules of the
game—and if initiating the conflict with Israel was a painful mistake for
Hezbollah, the group’s failure to properly respond for Shukr amidst that
conflict would prove fatal.
Back in January, Israel assassinated senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in an
airstrike in Dahiyeh but never claimed the attack. Hezbollah nevertheless fired
a barrage of forty rockets and several missiles at the Israeli Air Force’s
traffic control base in Meron—a significant escalation relative to the level of
fighting at the time. However, months later, Hezbollah could only muster a
failed strike for Shukr, which did not exceed the then-existing level of
escalation. In short, whatever the effect of Hezbollah’s storytelling on its
base, Israel knew the truth, and the group had shown its very weak hand.
In a few short weeks, the Israeli cabinet would add returning Israeli civilians
to their homes in the north as a war objective and authorize Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant to undertake all “offensive
and defensive” measures to achieve that goal. From there, beginning on September
17, the Israelis began rapidly landing painful blows upon Hezbollah, including
twin telecommunications device attacks, the elimination of the entire Radwan
Force’s command, and an aerial blitz destroying 1,600 Hezbollah targets in one
day, which would culminate in ten days with the assassination of Hezbollah’s
secretary-general.
Hassan Nasrallah’s entire career is colored in infamy. But where he and
Hezbollah truly demonstrated their murderousness—to the point that even Arabs
who had once hailed the group turned against it—was in Syria. To save the Bashar
al-Assad regime, Nasrallah and his fighters were willing to bring about the
deaths of tens of thousands of Syrian children.
In many ways, then, it was fitting that shedding the blood of the ethnically
Syrian Israeli children in Majdal Shams was the beginning of his end.
**David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
focusing on Hezbollah, Israel, and Lebanon issues. Follow him on X: @DavidADaoud.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 11-12/2024
Trump asks for military aircraft
protection amid Iran threat, reports say
Reuters/October 11, 2024
Donald Trump's campaign has requested the use of military aircraft and vehicles
to protect the former president as he campaigns during the final weeks of the
presidential campaign, the New York Times and Washington Post reported on
Friday. The request follows two recent assassination attempts against the
Republican presidential candidate. It also comes after Trump's campaign last
month said he had been briefed by U.S. intelligence officials on alleged threats
from Iran to assassinate him. A representative for the U.S. Secret Service,
which is charged with protecting presidential candidates, said "the former
president is receiving the highest levels of protection" but confirmed the Trump
campaign had requested more. "The Secret Service will remain vigilant and
continue to adjust and enhance its protective posture as needed to mitigate
evolving threats," the representative said. U.S. President Joe Biden, speaking
to reporters, said he has authorized security to protect Trump as if he were a
sitting president, and if Trump's request falls in that category it should be
granted. Representatives for Trump's campaign did not immediately respond to a
request for comment. According to the New York Times, Trump's campaign has been
in contact with White House chief of staff Jeff Zients and acting Secret Service
Ronald Rowe asking for military assets to protect the Republican candidate, who
is facing U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Trump's campaign told officials that it has had to move, reschedule or cancel
campaign events because of lack of adequate protection, the Times reported,
citing four people briefed on the matter. His campaign also asked for expanded
flight restrictions over his homes and campaign rallies as well as prepositioned
ballistic glass at events in battleground states, the Washington Post reported,
citing emails it had obtained and unnamed sources. The Office of the Director of
National Intelligence has acknowledged the September briefing to Trump but did
not confirm any specifics. The alleged shooters in the two separate attempts
have no known reported ties to Iran.
The U.S. Secret Service faced widespread criticism after the first assassination
attempt against Trump in July that led to the resignation of is director and
other security changes.
Leaders of EU states in Mediterranean say ceasefire in Middle East
is needed, now
Reuters/October 11, 2024
Leaders of nine European Union member states in the Mediterranean on Friday
called for an immediate ceasefire after a sharp escalation in conflict between
Israel and forces of Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. "Amid the backdrop of the
conflict in Gaza in the broader region, we express our deep concern at the
escalation of a military confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah," a
statement from EU leaders attending a summit, known as MED9, read after meeting
in Cyprus. "We seek an immediate ceasefire throughout the Blue Line and the
timely dispatch of humanitarian aid to Lebanon," leaders including France,
Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal said in a joint statement, referring to a U.N.
mapped demarcation line separating Lebanon from Israel and the Israeli-occupied
Golan Heights. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah erupted one year ago
when the Iranian-backed group began launching rockets at northern Israel in
support of the Palestinian militant group Hamas at the start of the Gaza war,
which followed a bloody rampage by Hamas through communities in southern Israel
that killed 1,200 people in a matter of hours. The conflict has intensified in
recent weeks, with Israel bombing southern Lebanon, Beirut's southern suburbs
and the Bekaa Valley, killing many of Hezbollah's top leaders, and sending
ground troops into areas of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah for its part has fired
rockets deeper into Israel. Friday, two peacekeepers were injured after two
explosions near a watchtower in southern Lebanon, the United Nations
peacekeeping force there, UNIFIL, said.
Iranian president says Israel, backed by West, is 'killing innocent people'
Reuters/October 11, 2024
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Friday that Israel should "stop
killing innocent people", and that its actions in the Middle East were backed by
the United States and the European Union. Pezeshkian was speaking to a Russian
state TV reporter on the sidelines of an international meeting in Turkmenistan.
Israel in recent weeks has sharply escalated its assault on Lebanon's
Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, including by killing its top leaders, sending
ground troops into southern Lebanon and bombing the capital Beirut. An Israeli
strike late on Thursday in the heart of Beirut killed 22 people and injured more
than 100, Lebanese authorities said.Israel says the operations in Lebanon aim to
allow tens of thousands of its residents to return home after being forced to
leave northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket fire over the past year.
Hezbollah is firing at Israel in support of its ally Hamas, which triggered
Israel's ground offensive in Gaza following an Oct. 7 attack on communities in
southern Israel. "I would like to say to Israel: stop killing innocent people.
Stop bombing residential buildings, people who have nothing anyway," said
Pezeshkian, accusing Israel of violating every kind of international agreement.
"It does this because it knows that the US and the European Union are behind
it," he said.
The Middle East remains on high alert for further escalation in the region,
awaiting Israel's response to an Iranian missile strike on Oct. 1.
UN inquiry accuses Israel of ‘crime of extermination’
through deliberate destruction of Gaza’s health care system
Niamh Kennedy and Muhammad Darwish, CNN/Fri, October 11, 2024
A United Nations inquiry has accused Israel of carrying out a “concerted policy”
of destroying the health care system in Gaza during its year-long conflict with
Hamas in attacks it said amount to war crimes. Israel’s actions in the besieged
Palestinian enclave “constitute the war crimes of willful killing and
mistreatment and the crime against humanity of extermination,” the commission
said in a statement Thursday. “Israeli security forces have deliberately killed,
detained and tortured medical personnel and targeted medical vehicles” in Gaza,
according to the report by the UN’s Independent International Commission of
Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and
Israel. The Israeli attacks resulted in “fuel, food, water, medicines and
medical supplies not reaching hospitals, while also drastically reducing permits
for patients to leave the territory for medical treatment,” it said. The Israeli
foreign ministry called the accusations “outrageous” and said they were “another
blatant attempt by the (commission) to delegitimize the very existence of the
State of Israel and obstruct its right to protect its population while covering
up the crimes of terrorist organizations.” “This report shamelessly portrays
Israel’s operations in terror-infested health facilities in Gaza as a matter of
policy against Gaza’s health system, while entirely dismissing overwhelming
evidence that medical facilities in Gaza have been systematically used by Hamas
and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad for terrorist activities.”Hamas, it said, uses
medical facilities to conceal operatives, store weapons, conduct attacks and
hide hostages. Hamas has repeatedly denied that it uses hospitals for military
activity. The UN report also accused Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups
of committing war crimes of “torture, inhuman or cruel treatment, rape and
sexual violence” for their treatment of Israeli hostages held captive in Gaza.
It also investigated “institutionalized mistreatment” of Palestinian detainees
in Israeli prisons. The Israeli foreign ministry rejected “accusations of
widespread ill-treatment and torture of detainees,” saying Israel is “fully
committed to international legal standards” on treatment of detainees. In a
statement accompanying the 24-page report, which does not have the force of law,
former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said Israel “must
immediately stop its unprecedented wanton destruction” in Gaza. “Children in
particular have borne the brunt of these attacks, suffering both directly and
indirectly from the collapse of the health system,” she said. As part of the
report, UN experts investigated the killing of 5-year-old Palestinian girl Hind
Rajab, who made headlines in late January after a recording emerged of her
pleading to emergency workers to rescue her and her family after they became
trapped in their car due to Israeli shelling. Despite an ambulance arriving at
the scene while the girl was still alive, the presence of Israeli security
forces effectively “prevented access,” meaning the bodies of Rajab’s relatives
“could not be retrieved from their bullet-ridden car until 12 days after the
incident,” the report said. The report “determined on reasonable grounds that
the Israeli Army’s 162nd Division” which operated in the area at the time is
“responsible for killing the family of seven, shelling the ambulance and killing
the two paramedics inside.” The incident was just one of several alleged attacks
on health care in Gaza, amid broader wartime conditions.The report will be
presented to the UN General Assembly on October 30. The commission previously
alleged that both Israel and Hamas committed war crimes in the early stages of
the Gaza war, and that Israel’s actions also amounted to crimes against
humanity.
Israeli Military: Head of Islamic Jihad Killed in West Bank
Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
Israel said it had killed Muhammad Abdullah, the head of the Islamic Jihad's
network in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nur Shams in the West Bank. The
Palestinian health ministry said on Friday that two people were killed in an
Israeli strike on Nur Shams. Abdullah, who Israel said had been involved in a
number of attacks against its soldiers, was killed along with another
"terrorist" in a strike near Tulkarm, the military and security agency said in a
statement on Friday.
US Denies Report of Secret Talks With Iran for Regional
Cease-Fire
By All Israel News Staff | Thursday, 10 October 2024
After Israel's Channel 12 reported that the United States and several Arab
states were conducting secret talks with Iran to bring about a cease-fire
throughout the region, the U.S. officially denied their involvement in such
alleged talks. "No one has reached out to the United States about such a
proposal, and we're not in talks with not in talks with any countries about such
a proposal," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Wednesday. Miller
went on to deny knowledge of the existence of such talks. "I cannot speak to a
hypothetical proposal that I'm not even sure actually exists in reality," he
said. "Obviously, we would welcome the end of conflict across the region."The
Hebrew-language Channel 12 report cited an unnamed Israeli official who said
that Israel had been informed about such talks, despite not being involved. "We
are currently in a position of power, a cease-fire will be on our terms,
including a [Hezbollah] withdrawal beyond the Litani and the dismantling of all
military Hezbollah sites in areas near the border," he reportedly said. Such a
withdrawal of Hezbollah forces would be in alignment with United Nations
Security Council Resolution 1701, which was agreed to by the Lebanese cabinet at
the end of 2006 Lebanon war. The resolution called for the removal of armed
forces from Lebanese territory south of the Litani river, besides UNIFIL and the
Lebanese military. Since last week's ballistic missile attack from Iran, Israeli
leaders have promised to conduct a forceful response, and a ceasefire before
such a response thus appears highly unlikely. On Wednesday, Israeli Defense
Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel's response would be "deadly, precise and
surprising."While U.S. President Joe Biden has expressed support for Israel's
right to respond to the Iranian attack, he has said that Iran's nuclear
facilities should not be targeted. Republished with permission from All Israel
News
Leaders of Jordan and southern Europe meet in a bid to help
de-escalate Middle East crisis
BY MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS/PAPHOS, Cyprus (AP)/October 11, 2024
The leaders of nine southern European Union countries and Jordan are meeting in
Cyprus on Friday to come up with ways to de-escalate the crisis in the Middle
East that is threatening to engulf Lebanon and trigger a wider humanitarian
crisis. Jordan’s King Abdullah will join the leaders of the so-called MED9 —
including Italy, Spain, France, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia, Portugal and
Croatia — as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to
brainstorm initiatives aimed at protecting Lebanese civilians caught in the
crossfire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The leaders will also focus on helping clinch a ceasefire deal between Israeli
forces and Hamas in the Gaza strip in line with a U.N. Security Council
resolution adopted unanimously in June. Cyprus’ government spokesman
Konstantinos Letymbiotis said Thursday the Jordanian monarch’s presence at the
meeting lends additional weight to the proceedings given his country’s role in
helping peace efforts in the region. The meeting comes amid reports of an
international diplomatic effort to degrade Hezbollah's political hold in
Lebanon. “We want the Lebanese people to decide who their leaders ought to be,
bottom line, and that has been our position," U.S. State Department spokesman
Matthew Miller said Wednesday. "We certainly don’t want to dictate to the people
of Lebanon who their leader is, and we’re not going to ... we want them to be
able to do it absent a terrorist organization putting a gun to their head, which
is the situation that Lebanon has been in for decades now.”“Ultimately, we hope
that Hezbollah is degraded enough that they are less of a force in Lebanese
politics,” he added. According to Letymbiotis, King Abdullah will also discuss
with the leaders way of further bolstering his country’s relations with the EU.
The Jordanian monarch and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides will put
forward a joint proposal to create a regional firefighting hub in Cyprus through
the permanent deployment of fire-fighting aircraft on the island nation to
respond to regional emergencies. Christodoulides will also raise EU efforts to
deal with migration flows through the adoption a new asylum policy that would
more evenly share the distribution of asylum seekers through all EU members.
Cyprus is considered a front-line country that receives a significantly high
numbers of asylum seekers relative to its population.
Climate change is also on the agenda as the east Mediterranean and the Middle
East are considered particularly vulnerable areas to temperatures changes.
Christodoulides will also highlight Cyprus’ role in helping deliver humanitarian
aid to civilians in Gaza via a maritime corridor as well as a waystation for the
repatriation of third-country nationals evacuated from Lebanon. According to
Letymbiotis, more than 2,400 third-country nationals from 20 countries have so
far used Cyprus as a transfer point to their homeland. AP writer Matthew Lee
contributed.
Thousands said trapped in Jabalia camp as Israel
escalates attacks in northern Gaza
Adam Makary and Nidal al-Mughrabi/(Reuters)/October 11, 2024
Thousands of people are trapped in Gaza's Jabalia camp as Israeli forces attack
the area, Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) said on Friday, a
week after Israel launched an offensive there which it says is aimed at stopping
Hamas regrouping. Palestinian officials said Israeli military strikes killed at
least 34 Palestinians across the Gaza Strip on Friday, with nearly half of the
fatalities occurring in Jabalia, the northern district which is the largest of
Gaza's historic refugee camps. The Israeli military says it has killed dozens of
militants in Jabalia, though it remains unclear how many of the dead were
civilians versus fighters. "Nobody is allowed to get in or out; anyone who tries
is getting shot," MSF project coordinator Sarah Vuylsteke said on X. Five MSF
staff were trapped in Jabalia, she said. "I don't know what to do; at any moment
we could die. People are starving. I am afraid to stay, and I am also afraid to
leave," she quoted Haydar, an MSF driver, as saying. At least 15 of the
fatalities in Jabalia since dawn were due to Israeli strikes targeting various
areas, including a school sheltering displaced individuals, the official
Palestinian news agency Wafa said, citing medical sources. Gaza's Civil Defence
said dozens were wounded by Israeli quadcopter fire at the same school. There
was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which has previously said
that Gaza’s militants use such shelters for cover. Hamas denied this. The
Israeli military has sent troops into the nearby towns of Beit Hanoun and Beit
Lahiya as well as Jabalia. Hamas has said it will keep fighting Israeli forces.
Palestinian health officials have reported at least 130 deaths in the operation
so far, while the military has told residents to evacuate areas where the U.N.
estimates over 400,000 people are trapped. United Nations officials expressed
concern that the ongoing Israeli offensive and evacuation orders in northern
Gaza could disrupt the second phase of its polio vaccination campaign set to
begin next week. Healthcare officials have reported that dozens of facilities in
Gaza are under evacuation orders from the Israeli military, complicating
humanitarian efforts amid the ongoing conflict. Aid groups carried out an
initial round of vaccinations last month after a baby was partially paralyzed by
the type 2 polio virus in August, in the first such case in the territory in 25
years.
GCC-EU Summit Poised to Back Two-State Solution
Riyadh: Ghazi al-Harthi/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 11/2024
The escalating conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon are pushing the two-state solution
to the forefront of the agenda for the upcoming Gulf Cooperation
Council-European Union (GCC-EU) Summit in Brussels next Wednesday. The summit is
expected to back the Global Alliance for Implementing the Two-State Solution,
recently launched by Saudi Arabia. Christophe Farnaud, the EU’s ambassador to
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman, said the EU and Gulf countries are united in
their call for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he also
expected a strong, unified position on establishing a Palestinian state during
this first-of-its-kind summit. Farnaud highlighted the EU’s support for a
ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages, and humanitarian aid, while
reaffirming the EU’s alignment with Arab and Gulf nations on the two-state
solution.
Recognition of Palestine ‘Just a Matter of Time’On the topic of recognizing a
Palestinian state, Farnaud revealed that many EU member states have reached an
initial agreement, and it's “only a matter of time” before more countries
officially recognize Palestine. Some have already done so, while others are
deciding the right timing. He praised the Saudi-led Global Alliance for
Implementing the Two-State Solution, launched in September, which includes Arab,
Islamic, Norwegian, and EU support. The initiative was well received
internationally, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell commending Saudi
Arabia’s efforts during a recent UN meeting on Gaza. Norwegian Foreign Minister
Espen Barth Eide called the two-state solution “the only reliable path to peace
in the Middle East” and stressed the need to establish a Palestinian state now.
Economic Partnership, Cooperation
On the economic front, Farnaud said the summit will build on previous meetings
to strengthen long-term partnerships between the EU and the Gulf. The leaders
will discuss economic, investment, and trade cooperation, with trade in goods
alone between the two regions reaching €170 billion.
Key Issues on the Summit Agenda
The summit will also address security, regional stability, and ongoing crises in
Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan, and the Red Sea. Both sides are committed to finding
diplomatic solutions to these issues.
Free Trade, Visa Cooperation . Farnaud confirmed the EU’s commitment to reaching
a free trade agreement with Gulf countries, while noting that some technical
issues remain. He also expressed interest in advancing talks on a potential visa
waiver between the Schengen area and Gulf nations.
The summit will be the first of its kind between the GCC and the EU. Farnaud
recently held positive discussions with Saudi officials to finalize preparations
and set priorities for the meeting.
Debate in Iran over Khamenei’s Office Considering Nuclear Weapons’ Fatwa
Revision
London: Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
Debate is growing in Iran over changes to its defense policy and a review of the
ban on producing nuclear weapons, with the issue reportedly reaching Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei’s office. In recent days, Iranian media close to Khamenei
expressed concerns about the country’s lack of nuclear deterrence. The Tehran
Times said that "uncontrolled Israeli threats are driving Iranian calls for
nuclear weapons."On Thursday, the Fars news agency quoted Rasoul Sanai-Rad, a
political adviser to Khamenei, warning that any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear
sites would violate key regional and international boundaries. Sanai-Rad added
that some Iranian politicians are considering changes to nuclear policy, as an
attack on energy sites would have serious consequences during and after any
conflict. Iranian military and political leaders have frequently suggested a
shift in nuclear policy toward producing nuclear weapons, but they consistently
remind the public that this is forbidden by a fatwa from Khamenei. The current
regional tensions are creating a new situation for Iran, especially after recent
setbacks for Lebanon’s Hezbollah, its main ally, leading to a belief that Iran
is now directly confronting Israel. Israel is considering its response to
Iranian ballistic missile threats. The government is likely to empower Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to decide when and
where to strike. Gallant previously stated that Israel has prepared a
“devastating and surprising response to Iran” following an inconclusive call
between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden. In a session of the Iranian
parliament, Deputy Hassanali Akhlaghi Amiri called on the Supreme National
Security Council to urgently rethink Iran’s defense doctrine. Political
institutions in Iran are promoting the idea that increasing deterrence against
Israel is gaining support among influential and elite groups. Akhlaghi Amiri
asked parliament members, “Why do you limit yourselves to just condemning
Israel's actions? Are you afraid? Is life so precious that you accept
humiliation?” He added that revising the fatwa against nuclear weapons,
according to Imamite jurisprudence, should consider current circumstances and be
presented to the Supreme Leader. However, he acknowledged that “the fatwa still
remains in place.”In 2003, Khamenei issued a fatwa banning nuclear weapons,
which is considered a binding advisory opinion. The Iranian government later
announced this fatwa during a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) in Vienna. A former Iranian president called the fatwa the best guarantee
for Iran's pursuit of peaceful nuclear technology. According to IAEA estimates,
Tehran is close to enriching its uranium stock to nearly 90% within two weeks, a
level that would allow it to produce a nuclear bomb.
Iran foreign minister reiterates Israel retaliation warning
Reuters/October 11, 2024
(Reuters) - Tehran will not hesitate to take "stronger defensive actions" if
Israel retaliates for last week's missile attack by Tehran, Iran's Foreign
Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday.
Iran is "fully prepared to take stronger defensive actions, if necessary, in
response to any further aggression, and will not hesitate to do so," Araqchi
said in a letter to other foreign ministers, according to a ministry post on X.
Israel has repeatedly said it will respond to Iran's missile attack on Oct. 1,
launched in retaliation for Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza and the killing
of a Hamas leader in Iran. Araqchi said in his letter that Iran’s missile attack
on Israel had been in accordance with its right to self defence under
international law and followed much restraint as it sought a ceasefire in the
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said Israel
will hit Iran in a way that will be "lethal, precise and surprising".
Russian and Iranian leaders meet amid warming ties and
escalating Middle East conflict
Lauren Kent, CNN/October 11, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin was set to meet his Iranian counterpart Masoud
Pezeshkian for the first time on Friday, as relations between the two sanctioned
nations warm and the Middle East braces for Israel’s response to Tehran’s
largest-ever missile attack last week.
The meeting at a regional summit in Ashgabat, the capital of the Central Asian
country Turkmenistan, also comes against a backdrop of closer military ties
between Iran and Russia’s military in recent years, particularly since the
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Iran has supplied thousands of “Shahed” attack drones to Russia, and according
to US officials, built a drone factory in Russia. Iran also recently transferred
short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to use in the war against Ukraine, CNN
reported in September, marking a significant escalation in the country’s support
for Moscow. “Since Ukraine, the two countries have been more equal in terms of
both needing each other and relying each other on specific issues. And that, I
think, has been seen as beneficial from the Iranian side,” said Aniseh Bassiri
Tabrizi, senior analyst and associate fellow, at UK think tank Chatham House.
Moscow and Tehran have a de facto military alliance in the region to support the
regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Analysts say the countries have
found further common ground as they are increasingly isolated by global
sanctions.
There is a perception in Moscow that Iran can teach Russia about the tools to
evade sanctions, Bassiri Tabrizi noted, adding, “I think it’s overall a goal
from the Iranian side, so that has been part of the broader conversation about
being part of the BRICS,” the bloc of major emerging economies that Iran
formally joined early this year. Pezeshkian, a reformist who won Iran’s election
in July following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash,
has already emphasized his desire to strengthen bilateral cooperation with
Russia to counter the “cruel” sanctions of the West. In a meeting with Russian
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Tehran last week, the Iranian leader called
for accelerating joint projects. Meanwhile, Russia expressed interest in
expanding trade and economic cooperation as well as diversifying its bilateral
trade with Iran. The Russian prime minister also invited Pezeshkian to attend
the October BRICS summit in Russia, where the two countries are expected to sign
a comprehensive strategic agreement. The Russian foreign ministry has touted
these meetings as evidence that Russia-Iran relations are at an “all-time high,”
according to TASS.
There have also been reports of Russian involvement in arms transfers to the
Iran-backed Houthis. Viktor Bout, the Russian arms dealer who was exchanged in a
prisoner swap for American basketball star Brittney Griner, has allegedly
reentered the arms trade to broker the sale of $10 million worth of automatic
weapons to the Yemen-based rebels, The Wall Street Journal and other Western
media outlets reported this week, citing unnamed Western officials. Bout has
denied that. However, developments in the Middle East have not necessarily
strengthened Iran-Russia relations, Bassiri Tabrizi noted, and some analysts
argue that Russia stands to benefit from the conflicts involving Iranian proxies
distracting from the war in Ukraine on the international stage. “We know that
Russia is very much focusing on what’s going on in Ukraine. It probably cannot
stretch itself much in terms of delivery of technical and military capability to
Iran beyond a certain point,” the Chatham House analyst told CNN in a statement.
“While the relationship has been growing and is likely to continue to grow,
there are going to be some continued tensions, some continued misalignment.”
CNN’s Gianluca Mezzofiore, Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood contributed to this
report.
US Still Believes Iran Has Not Decided to Build a Nuclear
Weapon
Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
The United States still believes that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear
weapon despite Tehran's recent strategic setbacks, including Israel's killing of
Hezbollah leaders and two largely unsuccessful attempts to attack Israel, two US
officials told Reuters. The comments from a senior Biden administration official
and a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)
added to public remarks earlier this week by CIA Director William Burns, who
said the United States had not seen any evidence Iran's leader had reversed his
2003 decision to suspend the weaponization program. "We assess that the Supreme
Leader has not made a decision to resume the nuclear weapons program that Iran
suspended in 2003," said the ODNI spokesperson, referring to Iran's leader Ali
Khamenei. The intelligence assessment could help explain US opposition to any
Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program in retaliation for a ballistic missile
attack that Tehran carried out last week. President Joe Biden said after that
attack he would not support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites, but did
not explain why he had reached that conclusion. His remarks drew fierce
criticism from Republicans, including former President Donald Trump. US
officials have long acknowledged that an attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear
weapons program might only delay the country's efforts to develop a nuclear bomb
and could even strengthen Tehran's resolve to do so. "We're all watching this
space very carefully," the Biden administration official said. Iran's mission to
the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for
comment but Tehran has repeatedly denied ever having had a nuclear weapons
program.
KEY IRAN ALLY WEAKENED
In the past weeks, Israel's military has inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah,
the most powerful member of the Iran-backed network known as the Axis of
Resistance. The group's setbacks have included the killing of its leader Hassan
Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike last month.
The weakening of a key Iranian ally has prompted some experts to speculate that
Tehran may restart its efforts to acquire a nuclear bomb to protect itself. Beth
Sanner, a former US deputy director of national intelligence, said the risk of
Khamenei reversing his 2003 religious dictum against nuclear weapons is "higher
now than it has been" and that if Israel were to strike nuclear facilities
Tehran would likely move ahead with building a nuclear weapon. That would still
take time, however. "They can't get a weapon in a day. It will take months and
months and months," said Sanner, now a fellow with the German Marshall Fund.
Iran is now enriching uranium to up to 60% fissile purity, close to the 90% of
weapons grade, at two sites, and in theory it has enough material enriched to
that level, if enriched further, for almost four bombs, according to a yardstick
of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN watchdog. The expansion
in Iran's enrichment program has reduced the so-called breakout time it would
need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb to "a week or a
little more," according to Burns, from more than a year under a 2015 accord that
Trump pulled out of when president. Actually making a bomb with that material
would take longer. How long is less clear and the subject of debate.
POSSIBLE ISRAELI ATTACK
Israel has not yet disclosed what it will target in retaliation for Iran's
attack last week with more than 180 ballistic missiles, which largely failed
thanks to interceptions by Israeli air defenses as well as by the US military.
The United States has been privately urging Israel to calibrate its response to
avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East, officials say, with Biden
publicly voicing his opposition to a nuclear attack and concerns about a strike
on Iran's energy infrastructure.
Israel, however, views Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat. The
conflicts in the Middle East between Israel and Iran and Iran-backed groups in
Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen have become campaign issues ahead of the Nov. 5
presidential election, with Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President
Kamala Harris, positioning themselves as pro-Israel. Speaking at a campaign
event last week, Trump mocked Biden for opposing an attack on Iran's nuclear
sites, saying: "That's the thing you wanna hit, right?"Avi Melamed, a former
Israeli intelligence officer and government official, said Iran still had space
to compensate for setbacks dealt to its proxies and missile force without having
to resort to developing a nuclear warhead. "The Iranians have to recalculate
what's next. I don't think at this point they will rush to either develop or
boost the (nuclear) program toward military capacity," he said. "They will look
around to find what maneuvering space they can move around in."
Moscow’s ‘Tactical’ Retreat in Syria, Shift in Priorities
Moscow: Raed Jaber/Asharq Al Awsat/October 11/2024
The recent successive withdrawals of Russian military forces from observation
points near the frontlines with the occupied Syrian Golan have raised questions
about Russia’s positioning in the context of the escalating confrontation in
Lebanon, which has quickly spilled over into Syrian territory. These withdrawals
also prompt inquiries about Russia’s priorities in the coming phase regarding
the anticipated developments, particularly in light of what Israel and the
United States call the “rearrangement of the regional situation and the curbing
of Iranian influence in the region.”
In recent days, reports have surfaced of Russian military forces unexpectedly
evacuating sites described by Israeli sources as strategic. One of the most
notable locations was an observation point on Tel al-Hara in northern Daraa
province, followed by similar withdrawals from Tel al-Shaar and Tel Mashara in
the Quneitra countryside. Russian forces collected their equipment and took down
their flag before departing. It is now evident that the Russian move followed
military activities by Israeli forces a few days earlier near the border between
Quneitra province and the occupied Syrian Golan.
These movements involved the deployment of a significant number of Israeli tanks
and military vehicles in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. Additionally, over
recent months, Israel has been opening pathways in the Syrian Golan and
detonating minefields near the ceasefire line multiple times, coinciding with
increasing strikes within Syrian territory and reports from the Israeli side
about the arrival of elite Iranian militia forces in southern Syria. Moscow had
previously established 17 military observation points in the area and patrolled
the frontlines to maintain de-escalation between Hezbollah forces and Israel.
Thus, the current withdrawals leave the region vulnerable to further escalation.
This indicates that Moscow is unwilling to engage in confrontation or keep its
forces in the line of fire. It also appears unable to stop the ongoing
deterioration.
Two hypotheses have emerged to explain these successive Russian withdrawals. The
first suggests that Moscow received a warning from Israel about upcoming
military operations in the region and that Israeli forces intend to target
Hezbollah positions and other Iran-backed militias. The second hypothesis, which
comes from Russian diplomats speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, claims that Russia is
not yielding to Israeli threats and that these withdrawals do not signal a green
light for Israel to expand its operations in Syria. On the contrary, the move
might aim to give Iran and its allied groups more room for military engagement
against Israel. In both cases, Moscow seems to prefer distancing its forces from
potential developments. Some estimates suggest that Russian forces will continue
to withdraw from observation points in areas experiencing heightened tensions.
However, these “tactical withdrawals,” as described by Russian observers, do not
indicate that Russia is planning more drastic actions. Instead, the increased
significance of Russia’s military presence in Syria, in light of its escalating
confrontation with the West, shows that Moscow is unlikely to reassess its
strategic presence in the region in the near future, according to a Russian
analyst who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat.
This analysis, however, depends on the nature of future developments,
particularly regarding Israel’s potential plans to expand its operations in
Syria.
The Kremlin’s warnings on Thursday pointed to the possibility of wider
deterioration in Syria. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that any
potential expansion of Israel’s military actions in Syria could have
catastrophic consequences for the Middle East. However, he refrained from
answering questions about Russia’s potential response should Israel launch a
ground offensive in Syria to pursue Iranian and Hezbollah forces. He only
remarked that it is “not appropriate to speculate on future developments at this
time.”
Simultaneously, Moscow appears to have escalated its rhetoric criticizing
Israeli military actions in Syria. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s angry
response, describing recent Israeli strikes as an “aggression targeting
civilians and a blatant violation of international laws,” marked a significant
shift in Russia’s tone.
Commonly recognized is the fact that Moscow began reducing its forces in Syria
in the summer of 2022, a few months after the war in Ukraine began. At that
time, Russia provided extensive support to Hezbollah and other Iran-backed
militias in Syria, including facilitating the transfer of weapons and equipment
to these groups after Syrian airports under Iranian control were bombed. Moscow
also turned a blind eye to Hezbollah’s redeployment in southern Syria, despite
this violating a previous agreement that required Hezbollah and its allies to
stay 80 kilometers away from the Golan.
Russia has withdrawn thousands of soldiers and officers, moving them to Ukraine,
where the front is more pressing and crucial at this time. Russian military
circles explained this move by stating that Russian ground forces no longer have
specific missions in Syria after accomplishing their main task of fighting
terrorism and reinforcing the Syrian government’s control.
However, reducing the number of troops does not mean Moscow is deprioritizing
Syria. According to a military analyst, the strategic importance of Russian air
and long-range capabilities has grown beyond Syria’s borders, reflecting
Russia’s broader interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. This
reassessment of priorities predates the Gaza conflict, which has now spread to
Lebanon and is seriously threatening Syria. It’s important to recall President
Vladimir Putin’s remarks roughly two months ago when he warned, during Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad’s visit to Moscow, that the region was on the brink of
very dangerous developments, with Syria not exempt from them. Experts note that
Moscow values its strategic military presence in Syria, but seeks to maintain it
at minimal cost. Last year, Putin said that Russian forces’ presence in Syria is
“temporary and will continue as long as it serves Russia’s interests in this
vital region, which is very close to us.” He emphasized that Moscow is not
planning to withdraw these units from Syria yet. However, it was notable that
Putin referred to Russian deployments in Syria as “points” rather than “bases,”
indicating that Moscow is not constructing long-term structures there. He added
that Russia could withdraw its military personnel “quickly and without material
losses” if necessary. Experts believe that Putin’s remarks precisely define the
levels of Russian engagement should the situation worsen, particularly if
Russian forces lose their strategic advantage in Syria. Nevertheless, according
to some experts, Moscow is likely to continue complicating the situation for
Washington by supporting the escalation of various forces against US interests
in the region, especially in Syria and Iraq. This could also apply to Israel’s
actions in and around Syria in the coming phase.
According to analysts, this policy will persist until Moscow formulates new
strategies based on how the situation evolves.
Somalia says it welcomes Egypt's offer to deploy
peacekeepers there
OMAR FARUK/Associated Press/October 11, 2024
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — Somalia says Egypt has offered to deploy peacekeeping
troops to the Horn of Africa nation in a security partnership that is emerging
as the mandate of a long-time group of African Union peacekeepers winds down.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on Thursday attended a summit in the
Eritrean capital, Asmara, where he and the leaders of Somalia and Eritrea
pledged strong cooperation in regional security. Somali authorities said in a
statement at the end of the summit that they welcomed Egypt's offer to deploy
troops in Somalia as part of a stabilization force when the present African
Union force disbands in December. The statement said the leaders welcomed the
African Union Peace and Security Council’s decision to launch the African Union
Mission to Support Stabilization in Somalia, or AUSSOM, under whose mandate the
Egyptians or others would be deployed. A separate statement following the summit
signed by representatives of Somalia, Egypt and Eritrea asserted Somalia’s
sovereign right to determine the composition, tasks and deployment timeline for
the AUSSOM troops. Somalia’s federal government has been supported by an African
Union peacekeeping mission since 2007 in fighting the Islamic extremist group
al-Shabab, which has ties with al-Qaida and is responsible for deadly attacks in
the country. The summit in Asmara followed a period of tensions in the region
stemming from disputes pitting Ethiopia against others. The first dispute —
between Ethiopia and Egypt — is over Ethiopia’s construction of a $4 billion dam
on the Blue Nile, a key tributary of the Nile River. Egypt fears it will have a
devastating effect on water and irrigation supplies downstream in Egypt unless
Ethiopia takes its needs into account. Ethiopia plans to use the dam to generate
badly needed electricity. The second dispute — between Ethiopia and Somalia — is
over Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland. Somalia has sought to block
landlocked Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts to gain access to the Red Sea via a
contentious agreement with Somaliland to lease a stretch of land along its
coastline, where Ethiopia would establish a marine force base. In return,
Ethiopia would recognize Somaliland as an independent country, according to
Somaliland authorities. Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago
but is not recognized by the African Union or the United Nations as an
independent state. Somalia still considers Somaliland part of its territory.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on October 11-12/2024
Question: “Why does God allow natural
disasters?”
GotQuestions.org?/October 11/2024
Answer: Why does God allow earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes, tsunamis,
typhoons, cyclones, mudslides, wildfires, and other natural disasters?
Back-to-back hurricanes in the USA in the fall of 2024 are causing many people
to question God’s goodness. It is distressing that natural disasters are often
termed “acts of God” while no “credit” is given to God for years, decades, or
even centuries of peaceful weather. God created the whole universe and the laws
of nature (Genesis 1:1). Most natural disasters are a result of these laws at
work. Hurricanes, typhoons, and tornados are the results of divergent weather
patterns colliding. Earthquakes are the result of the earth’s plate structure
shifting. A tsunami is caused by an underwater earthquake. The Bible proclaims
that Jesus Christ holds all of nature together (Colossians 1:16-17). Could God
prevent natural disasters? Absolutely! Does God sometimes influence the weather?
Yes, as we see in Deuteronomy 11:17 and James 5:17. Numbers 16:30-34 shows us
that God sometimes causes natural disasters as a judgment against sin. The book
of Revelation describes many events which could definitely be described as
natural disasters (Revelation chapters 6, 8, and 16). Is every natural disaster
a punishment from God? Absolutely not. In much the same way that God allows evil
people to commit evil acts, God allows the earth to reflect the consequences sin
has had on creation. Romans 8:19-21 tells us, “The creation waits in eager
expectation for the sons of God to be revealed. For the creation was subjected
to frustration, not by its own choice, but by the will of the one who subjected
it, in hope that the creation itself will be liberated from its bondage to decay
and brought into the glorious freedom of the children of God.” The fall of
humanity into sin had effects on everything, including the world we inhabit.
Everything in creation is subject to “frustration” and “decay.” Sin is the
ultimate cause of natural disasters just as it is the cause of death, disease,
and suffering.
We can understand why natural disasters occur. What we do not understand is why
God allows them to occur. Why did God allow a tsunami to kill over 225,000
people in Asia? Why does God allow hurricanes to destroy the homes of thousands
of people? For one thing, such events shake our confidence in this life and
force us to think about eternity. Churches are usually filled after disasters as
people realize how tenuous their lives really are and how life can be taken away
in an instant. What we do know is this: God is good! Many amazing miracles
occurred during the course of natural disasters that prevented even greater loss
of life. Natural disasters cause millions of people to reevaluate their
priorities in life. Hundreds of millions of dollars in aid is sent to help the
people who are suffering. Christian ministries have the opportunity to help,
minister, counsel, pray, and lead people to saving faith in Christ! God can, and
does, bring great good out of terrible tragedies (Romans 8:28).
Opinion - A path toward a nuclear off-ramp with Iran
Ariel E. Levite and Toby Dalton, opinion contributor/The Hill./October 11/2024
Iran is now perilously close to acquiring nuclear weapons. It possesses the
ingredients for a rudimentary nuclear explosive device in a matter of several
months and likely could achieve an arsenal of deliverable warheads within a
year.
The U.S. intelligence community is losing confidence that Iranian leaders are
not getting ready to cross this Rubicon, even though it had until recently
assessed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not yet decided to go nuclear. But
Iran’s Oct. 2 missile attack on Israel and the latter’s likely retaliation could
change this calculus, unleashing a chain reaction in the process. To avoid that
outcome, the U.S. must take the lead in seeking an off-ramp with Iran that
constrains its nuclear activities well short of a bomb. It could try to build on
a mandate that Khamenei has given newly elected President Masoud Pazeshkian to
resume nuclear negotiations with the U.S. and its Western partners.
What might a nuclear off-ramp entail?
The U.S. aim should be both to tame Iran’s nuclear ambitions and arrest the
prospects of further conflict escalation in the region. The complex issues
involved, coupled with Iran’s negotiating style and the U.S. difficulty in
offering durable commitments, are bound to make such negotiations long and
complicated, straining the limits of what politics in Washington, Paris, London,
Berlin and (perhaps) Beijing can bear. Making matters worse, compared to the
last attempt at nuclear negotiations, Tehran now enjoys considerable backing
from Moscow and its nuclear program is far more advanced, though its regional
proxies and allies (Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis) have been seriously
diminished. By far the biggest challenge for negotiators will be the inevitable
linkages among nuclear activities, Iran’s regional behavior, and its assistance
to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The inability to satisfactorily address all three is
likely to further hinder the Western ability to offer Iran sanctions relief in
return for nuclear timidity.
Calibrating expectations is therefore essential, all the more so as the U.S. is
now in a period of election-imposed political paralysis likely to last well into
spring 2025, regardless of the election results. A nuclear off-ramp requires a
two-step process: immediate stopgap measures to prevent further escalations,
followed by more comprehensive and enduring arrangements.
Nuclear stopgaps could comprise tacit understandings of activities or actions
from which Tehran should desist — such as refining and testing weapons designs,
enriching uranium to 90 percent U-235 and converting its highly-enriched uranium
to metal. Enumeration of these understandings should reinforce the Iranian
leadership’s appreciation that any further step toward a deliverable nuclear
weapon would not go undetected.
In return for this nuclear forbearance, Washington could promise to dissuade
systematic Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear installations. Similarly,
negotiators could work out modest interim stabilization measures for Iranian
regional activities and support against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The
bargain could entail Washington’s commitment to refrain from tightening oil
sanctions against Iran (and perhaps symbolically easing others) so long as
Tehran holds back from scaling up (in quantity or quality) its military support
for Russia.
Further, Washington could promise to dissuade Israel from scaling up the aims of
its land offensive in southern Lebanon if Iran does not extend greater support
to all its endangered proxies in the region. Behind this short-term bargain
would need to be an implicit threat from the West of what happens if Iran does
not comply: stepped-up sanctions enforcement leading to full sanctions snapback,
covert actions aimed at destabilizing the Iranian regime, interdiction of arms
supplies to proxies and bolstering Israel’s offensive capability to retaliate
against Iran.
An interim de-escalation bargain would then set the stage for formal
negotiations to begin next spring on a more durable agreement. Such exercise
would be far easier if progress toward a cease-fire in Ukraine or Gaza were
agreed upon by then.
But even if both proved elusive, the logic of undertaking a comprehensive
nuclear-specific negotiation would still be compelling. For if Iran goes
nuclear, it could unleash a proliferation chain reaction that spurs bomb
programs by Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Turkey.
There is also the urgent matter of the October 2025 expiration of the United
Nations provision for snapping back full international sanctions on Iran, which
creates something of a negotiating deadline. At the core of nuclear negotiations
should be an effort to codify, cap and introduce additional verification
measures to check Iran’s weapons threshold status. Although the negotiation
would focus on Iran’s program, these should be conducted with an eye toward
establishing constraints and a transparency template applicable to any state
that similarly accrues advanced nuclear capabilities up to the threshold.
The stakes are high and the time to act is now. Realism mandates choosing a
pragmatic course that stands a chance of rare bipartisan support in Washington.
Not least because it creates space for the next administration to subsequently
chart its own course of action on Iran.
Ariel E. Levite is a senior fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program of the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. Toby Dalton is the co-director of the Nuclear
Policy Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Islamization of Bangladesh by Muhammad Yunus - Backed by Obama, Soros,
Clintons
Keya Mukherjee/Gatestone Institute./October 11, 2024
Meanwhile, it appears as if Yunus is waiting for the result of the November 5
presidential election in the US. A victory by Kamala Harris could pave the way
for him to remain in power indefinitely and complete the process of Islamizing
Bangladesh. "New Delhi is getting increasingly concerned that banned militant
outfits like Jamaat-e-Islami and even radical organisations like Hizb ut Tahrir
may soon enter mainstream politics in Bangladesh, thereby posing security
challenges not just for India but for the entire South Asian region..." – The
Anandabazar Patrika, September 14, 2024.
Yunus is already under pressure to lift the ban imposed on Hizb ut Tahrir by
Sheikh Hasina's previous government in 2009. "Delighted to see an old friend of
my father and the foundation, Nobel Prize winner @professormuhammadyunus,
interim leader of Bangladesh, who stepped in to lead Bangladesh towards a
peaceful future based on equity and fairness." — Alexander Soros, Instagram,
October 2, 2024.Bangladesh, a country being promptly being shifted towards
Talibanization under Muhammad Yunus -- openly backed by Barack Obama, Bill and
Hillary Clinton, George Soros and the U.S. Democratic Party -- is experiencing a
total nightmare. Pictured: Yunus at a press conference in Dhaka on October 4,
2024. Bangladesh, a country being promptly being shifted towards Talibanization
under Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus -- openly backed by Barack Obama,
Bill and Hillary Clinton, George Soros and the U.S. Democratic Party -- is
experiencing a total nightmare. Bangladesh's former leader, Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina, was forced to flee on August 5, following a coup d'état. Now,
Hindus in Bangladesh, who constitute a small minority of the population, are
facing repeated threats and intimidation from Yunus's men – a thuggish gang of
Islamists and jihadists from hardline Islamist groups such as Hizbut Tahrir and
Hefazat-e-Islam. To the utter surprise of Hindus, Yunus's regime has asked them,
during Muslim prayer times, to avoid playing musical instruments and refrain
from activities that are a part of the Hindu Durga Puja festival celebrations,
thereby interrupting the holiday. Since the ouster of Hasina, orchestrated
attacks on Hindus have been taking place, including murder, rape, abduction and
arson targeting Hindu homes, businesses and temples, in addition to coerced
religious conversions. According to the New Indian Express: "... Yunus, has said
the issue of attacks on minority Hindus in his country is 'exaggerated' and
questioned the manner in which India projected it.
"In an interview with PTI at his official residence here, Yunus said the attacks
on minorities in Bangladesh are more political than communal. "He suggested that
the attacks were not communal, but a fallout of a political upheaval as there is
a perception that most Hindus supported the now-deposed Awami League regime."
Islamist followers of Yunus regime have also been targeting Hindus in the civil
service and forcing them to resign. According to India Today:
"A letter from the Bangladesh President's office to various ministries and
departments requesting details of Hindu officials holding posts such as
secretaries and joint secretaries led to panic. "However, sources said a
clerical error caused the confusion..."
Also, as reported by The Times of India, Hindus are alleging that they have
received multiple threatening calls from Islamists demanding protection money or
to face death. Since August 5, Hindus in Bangladesh, fearing persecution, have
been trying to flee.
Yunus has been one of the major donors to Clinton Foundation. According to a
cable leaked by Wikileaks, 2007, Hillary Clinton made frantic bids and exerted
pressure on the Bangladeshi Army to make her friend Yunus head of the then
military-backed interim government.
According to Bloomberg, militants gaining strength after the tumultuous change
in government would create security concerns across Asia.
Meanwhile, a large segment of students, led by Yunus, are flexing their muscles
-- chanting jihadist slogans and openly displaying Islamic State flags on
various college and university campuses. Commenting on this situation, Kolkata's
oldest Bengali daily, The Anandabazar Patrika, reported:
"New Delhi is getting increasingly concerned that banned militant outfits like
Jamaat-e-Islami and even radical organisations like Hizb ut Tahrir may soon
enter mainstream politics in Bangladesh, thereby posing security challenges not
just for India but for the entire South Asian region..."
Yunus is already under pressure to lift the ban imposed on Hizb ut Tahrir by
Hasina's previous government in 2009. Analysts fear that Bangladesh may be
moving towards becoming another Pakistan. Today, the military-picked interim
civilian-led regime is struggling to restore the rule of law and revive an
economy pummeled by large-scale mob violence and destruction that preceded and
followed Hasina's overthrow in the uprising. Her loss of support from the
military, which has traditionally been a key player in Bangladesh politics,
proved decisive.
Although it was anticipated that Yunus would hold an election by December this
year and hand over power to an elected government, Bangladesh Army chief General
Waker-uz-Zaman in an interview with Reuters said the country should return to
electoral democracy within one-and-a-half years; that he will support the
interim government in carrying out the reforms, and that the Bangladesh Army
will be "professional" and stay away from politics.
Meanwhile, it appears as if Yunus is waiting for the result of the November 5
presidential election in the US. A victory by Kamala Harris could pave the way
for him to remain in power indefinitely and complete the process of Islamizing
Bangladesh.
This speculation became stronger when during his recent visit to the US to
attend the UN General Assembly, Yunus attended an event organized by the Clinton
Global Initiative, and met several leaders of the Democratic Party as well as
Alexander Soros. After meeting with Yunus, Soros posted on Instagram:
"Delighted to see an old friend of my father and the foundation, Nobel Prize
winner @professormuhammadyunus, interim leader of Bangladesh, who stepped in to
lead Bangladesh towards a peaceful future based on equity and fairness."
*Keya Mukherjee is a freelance journalist specializing in Asian and global
affairs.
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not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
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Calls for intervention: Will Iran send forces to aid
Hezbollah against Israel? - analysis
Dr. Yossi Mansharoe/Jerusalem Post/October 11/2024
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-824207
The Iranian regime appears to be blocking initiatives to send forces to Lebanon,
likely because it recognizes that the damage from such a move would outweigh the
potential benefits. In the Iranian media discourse since the assassination of
Nasrallah, initiatives from various factions have emerged, calling for the
deployment of forces to support Hezbollah’s fight against Israel. The Iranian
regime appears to be blocking these initiatives, likely because it recognizes
that the damage from such a move would outweigh the potential benefits.
But the question remains: Will Iran send forces to Lebanon to fight against
Israel?
The ideological and emotional connection with Nasrallah
Since the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, along
with Quds Force Commander in Lebanon Abbas Nilforoushan, on September 27,
initiatives have surfaced within the Iranian regime and its supporters, calling
for the Islamic Republic to send volunteer forces to Lebanon to aid Hezbollah in
its time of crisis. The unprecedented blows Israel has dealt to Hezbollah not
only place the terrorist organization in a difficult situation but also create a
problematic scenario for Iran. The Lebanese arena, and Hezbollah in particular,
represent the most successful model of exporting the Islamic Revolution.
Hezbollah is seen as "the jewel in the crown" of Iran's proxy network, which it
has cultivated since the early 1980s. Beyond Hezbollah’s strategic importance to
Iran's national security concept, many within the Iranian regime had an
ideological and emotional connection with Nasrallah, a relationship that
developed over many years. These ties grew when Nasrallah studied in religious
seminaries at the leading spiritual center in Iran, the city of Qom, in the
second half of the 1980s, before Nasrallah was appointed Hezbollah leader
following Abbas Musawi’s assassination by the IDF in 1992.
Since then, his personal connections have grown stronger. This was driven by his
close collaboration with Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani, who assumed the
role in 1998. Nasrallah’s landmark achievement in 2000, with the IDF’s
withdrawal from southern Lebanon, further solidified his position, and his rise
as a senior figure in Iran’s proxy network intensified even more after
Soleimani’s assassination by the US in 2020.
'Iran cannot be indifferent to the blows Hezbollah is suffering'
In light of this, it was Ayatollah Mohammad Hassan Akhtari (born 1939) who, on
September 28, the day after Nasrallah's assassination, proposed to the regime to
send volunteer forces to Lebanon and the Syrian Golan. Akhtari, known as one of
Hezbollah’s founding fathers, played a senior role in establishing and nurturing
the organization while serving as Iran’s ambassador to Syria from 1986 to 1997.
Currently, Akhtari heads the "Committee for the Support of the Islamic
Revolution of the Palestinian People," under the office of the Iranian
president, established through the 1990 law to promote support for the
Palestinian struggle against Israel. Akhtari explained that Iran cannot remain
indifferent and must participate directly in the fighting; thus, it should send
young volunteers to Lebanon and the Syrian Golan to fight against Israel. The
Basij, a volunteer paramilitary militia within the IRGC, also opened social
media accounts to register citizens for deployment to Lebanon.
On September 30, a group of students and residents from Qom arrived at Tehran’s
airport and demanded that the regime send them to fight in Lebanon.
Subsequently, Mohsen Rafighdoost, one of the founders of the Revolutionary
Guards, stated in a media interview on October 3 that the option of sending
military forces to Lebanon and the Syrian Golan is on the table for Iranian
decision-makers. The regime restrains initiatives to send forces to Lebanon and
the Syrian Golan
However, the Iranian authorities quickly clarified that they had no intention of
responding to these calls. On September 30, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
Nasser Kanaani announced that Tehran would not send volunteer forces to Lebanon,
explaining that Lebanon has the capacity to defend itself.
The deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, added on
October 6 that Tehran does not intend to send forces to Lebanon, stating that
the commanders of the resistance front have not reported a manpower shortage
and, therefore, they have not requested such assistance from Iran. A senior
official in Iran’s religious seminaries echoed this sentiment in a media
interview on October 6, explaining that the physical presence of Iranian
elements in Lebanon would not be beneficial at this time and, therefore, no
volunteers should be sent to Lebanon unless Iran's leader, Khamenei, approves
it.
In the past year, following assassinations attributed to Israel targeting senior
Quds Force officials, particularly Hassan Mahdavi, the Quds Force commander in
Syria and Lebanon, Khamenei has led a significant shift in Iran's security
strategy. In April, he decided to attack Israel directly with ballistic
missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. In early October, he again led a direct
attack on Israel, this time consisting of around 200 ballistic missiles. Before
this, for decades, Iran overwhelmingly preferred to attack Israel indirectly
through its proxy network.
Earlier, in the second half of the last decade, Khamenei had already sent
thousands of fighters from the Quds Force, the Iranian army, and even the
Iranian police and Basij to the battlefield in Syria and Iraq to fight against
ISIS, which posed an existential threat to Iran.
However, the shift Khamenei is leading is not all-encompassing and does not
include sending fighters for direct combat against Israel. It appears Khamenei
is aware that such a move would place Iran squarely in the spotlight in the
fight against Israel and push Israel to launch significant attacks on Iranian
territory.
This goes beyond the risky gamble Khamenei already took with his recent missile
strike, which presents Israel with an excellent opportunity to strike back at
Iran with considerable international legitimacy. Moreover, sending fighters
would leave Iran exposed to attacks from Israeli troops on the ground and other
retaliatory strikes from Israel. Khamenei, whose entire regime, and especially
the nuclear program, are his life's work, would not want to put them at high
risk.
Reformists have voiced concern through their media outlets, warning that
Khamenei might be dragging Iran into an Israeli trap designed to provoke Iran
into a full-scale regional war involving the US. Therefore, while the
initiatives to send forces to Lebanon and the Syrian Golan may continue,
Khamenei is expected to manage the risks carefully and avoid escalating beyond
the already high level of risk he has placed on Iran.
*Dr. Yossi Mansharof is a researcher of Iran, Hezbollah, and Shia militias at
the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
Iran: Consistency and Transformation, Domestically and
Externally
Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 11/2024
It might be the first time the Iranian regime has found itself confronting so
many complex and difficult questions since it was established in 1979. These
wide-ranging questions pertain to everything from the nature of the regime and
to its future, which is intrinsically linked to external factors- that is,
Iran’s ability to maintain its influence, which recent shifts have left in
peril.
These questions are tied to the tools the regime could use to impose itself, and
they open the door to a wide-ranging debate, regardless of the regime’s efforts
to present itself as solid and stable to both domestic and international
audiences. Can the regime keep behaving as it had for decades, remaining stable
despite the upheaval in the region?
Domestically, Tehran seeks to guarantee stability and continuity for the first
time since the Islamic regime was founded. Thus, it is pursuing two objectives:
ensuring a smooth transitional phase, and safeguarding the regime's prestige and
the revolution's influence. However, the fact that these two objectives are
intertwined complicates things further.
Indeed, the first objective demands stability while the second requires strength
and influence. Moreover, to maintain its strength and role, which it has
translated into domestic rigidity and external influence, Tehran must avert
infighting among the different wings of the regime. It is evident that President
Masoud Pezeshkian was elected to that end. Protest movements, which usually
start with demands but quickly turn political, are banned for the same reason.
Externally, the goal is to maintain its extensive sphere of influence after
recent developments have threatened to shrink it or deprive Tehran of political
and military control over segments of this sphere. Iranian decision-makers see
these threats as almost existential, as they would allow Tehran’s "enemies" to
shift from confronting it in regional countries that fall within its sphere of
influence to striking the Iranian home front, directly challenging the regime
and devastating its standing after undermining or disabling its influence.
In fact, major external shifts are upending Iran’s extensive geopolitical
(political and strategic) map (its sphere of influence), undermining its
domestic stability and its attempts at reconsolidating its regional standing for
the first time in its history. Moreover, the shifts unfolding abroad could creep
into Iran itself, thereby shifting the focus from defending the revolution
externally to defending the regime domestically. That was evident in the recent
speech that the Supreme Leader gave during the memorial service for Hezbollah’s
late Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
It is obvious that the Iranian regime is now engaged in a battle of
self-defense. It seems that a clash with Israel is inevitable. Thus, it chose to
go from defense to offense, striking Israeli military assets directly with
long-range missiles and reformulating the "unit of arenas" strategy to turn it
into a front in defense of the regime itself.
The regime is aware that its current clashes with Tel Aviv are not just another
round of tit-for-tat but a war that will transform the region. After this
conflict, it may become difficult to maintain both the political integrity of
the national geography, on the one hand, and its geopolitical and ideological
influence on the other. Nonetheless, it faces a dilemma: if it sacrifices the
latter through a diplomatic compromise or under military pressure, it cannot
guarantee that the former will be maintained. The shifts unfolding outside its
borders could find their way into the home front, leaving the revolution, the
state, and the regime faced with significant challenges.
Faced with the prospect of a fully-fledged military confrontation or harsh
diplomatic concessions, the regime has tied its survival to its influence, its
geopolitical map, and the stability of the regime. That means that it would be
difficult for the regime to disentangle its domestic legitimacy from its
influence abroad. Thus, this potential clash could force Tehran to choose
between maintaining relative domestic stability and confronting broad external
shifts.
Resistance or Terror: The Importance of Dosage
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 11/2024
These days my two favorite book-shops in Paris and London are devoting a full
shelf to books on or inspired by Hamas’s “Al-Aqsa Storm” October 7 raid on
Israel.
Some of these books offer various accounts of what happened on that day and
could be classed as extended reportages of the kind news magazines offered in
the good old days of print journalism. The most interesting of these Trey
Yingst’s “Black Saturday” which broadens its scope to offer a portrayal of the
subsequent war in Gaza. Because the author is a television reporter, his
fast-paced reportage often resembles a news reel. That, however, does not
prevent him from offering often deep insights into the mind-sets of the two
adversaries.
“The October 7 War” by Seth J Franzman also starts as a long reportage but
quickly evolves into a clinical study of the deeper causes of the deadly
explosion of anger and hate. Franzman tries to put the event in the broader
geopolitical context of the struggle for the future of the Middle East which has
been going on since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire after The First
World War.
The earliest attempt at imposing a shape on the region was undertaken by Great
Britain and France, the two colonial powers that as victors in that war shared
the chunks of the Ottoman Empire.
The British tried to forge a network of Arab monarchies with a newly minted Arab
League as a loose federation. The French imposed a shaky republican system on
Syria and Lebanon. Both mandate powers ultimately failed because with the start
of the Cold War the top billing in that drama had gone to the United States and
the Soviet Union. Though the two “superpowers” provided a measure of stability,
they too ultimately failed perhaps because they mistook stagnation with
stability.
Frantzman, who has also studied the so-called ISIS, deals with the new and
current protagonists in the drama, notably the Islamic Republic established in
Tehran. He manages to trace the genesis of the October attack to Tehran’s grand
plan for reshaping the Middle East in its own image. The Islamic Republic
leaders believe that unless the rest of the Middle East becomes Iranian, it
would be their Iran which would be forced to become like the rest of the Middle
East.
To that end, Tehran leaders pursue two parallel strategies: Turning the Arab
states into hollow shells used as cover for an Iranian proxy exercising real
power, and creating a network of proxies to drag Israel into perpetual war with
the aim of its ultimate destruction through psychological fatigue, economic
burden and demographic decline.
Frantzman doesn’t say so openly but his account suggests that the October 7
attack, its unprecedented horror notwithstanding, must be treated as an episode
in a broader war that will not end unless the Islamic Republic is knocked out of
the deadly game.
“October 7: The War Against Hamas: Through the Eyes of An Israeli Commando
Officer” is, as the title suggests, an eye-witness account of the war by Captain
Elkam Cohen.
The book, endorsed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, may be regarded
by some as an apologia which to some extent it is. Nevertheless, Captain Cohen
manages to steer away from propagandist temptations to seek sympathy through
pathos. And that makes his narrative all the more powerful.
His book offers a rare insight into the Israeli army’s rules of engagement and
operational modes not in theory but in the context of a real and exceptionally
challenging struggle. All along, the reader will feel that without saying so,
Cohen and his comrades fear that the ongoing struggle may drag them down to the
level of bitter hatred established by Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar- a
level that made even some of Hamas’s own fighters and sympathizers
uncomfortable.
The October 7 shelf in the London bookshop also includes Nikolas Giannopoulos’
“Terrorist or Freedom Fighter: The Right to Resist” which was written before the
Hamas attack on Israel but is reissued supposedly to put Hamas’s point of view,
albeit indirectly. The author argues that people who feel oppressed have a right
to resist oppression and cites a range of examples -from the US war of
independence to the IRA’s long war against Great Britain.
However, it is hard to see how the October 7 attack could be categorized as an
act of resistance by freedom-fighters. At that time Gaza was under Israeli
occupation and was evolving as a semi-independent min-state which, though
subjected to harsh and unjust restrictions in some domains, could not be
regarded as a colonized entity thirsty for independence. For Hamas, October 7
was a war of choice not a war of necessity, and its goal wasn’t just to
terrorize a real or imaginary foe but to kill as many non-combatants as
possible.
Terror is used to persuade or force an adversary into doing something you want
or stop doing something you don’t want and sadly, in many instances it works.
However, if an act of terror transcends certain boundaries, it could produce the
opposite of what the terrorist hoped for. In other words, it is all a matter of
dosage. Without the “Al-Aqsa Storm” raid no Israeli
Prime Minster, let alone Benjamin Netanyahu who happened to have hit the nadir
of unpopularity would have dared to launch a total war aimed at flushing Hamas
out of Gaza and.
“General” Sinwar isn’t the first victim of unintended consequences and won’t be
the last either.
In hindsight, it seems that the late leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah Hassan
Nasrollah understood the importance of dosage in terror and/or resistance.
This is why initially to the surprise of some he refused to enter the danse-macabre
opened by Sinwar. We may never know what persuaded or forced him to abandon his
usual caution and join an adventure beyond his control. My guess is that he
didn’t jump but was pushed. Your guess as to who pushed him.