English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 09/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
If I speak in the tongues of mortals and of angels, but do not have love, I am a noisy gong or a clanging cymbal
First Letter to the Corinthians 12/28-31//13/01-07: And God has appointed in the church first apostles, second prophets, third teachers; then deeds of power, then gifts of healing, forms of assistance, forms of leadership, various kinds of tongues. Are all apostles? Are all prophets? Are all teachers? Do all work miracles? Do all possess gifts of healing? Do all speak in tongues? Do all interpret? But strive for the greater gifts. And I will show you a still more excellent way. If I speak in the tongues of mortals and of angels, but do not have love, I am a noisy gong or a clanging cymbal. And if I have prophetic powers, and understand all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have all faith, so as to remove mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing. If I give away all my possessions, and if I hand over my body so that I may boast, but do not have love, I gain nothing. Love is patient; love is kind; love is not envious or boastful or arrogant or rude. It does not insist on its own way; it is not irritable or resentful; it does not rejoice in wrongdoing, but rejoices in the truth. It bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all things."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 08-09/2024
Elias Bejjani / Text and Video: Analysis of Naïm Qassem’s Illusions, Delusions, Denial and Treacherous Speech
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The End of Iran’s Reign of Terror and Hezbollah's Demise
Sheikh Qassem Speech Text and Video Link: Hezbollah’s Military Capabilities Solid, Will Emerge Victorious
War Piles Yet More Trauma on Lebanon's Exhausted People
Lebanon Says Has ‘Assurances’ but No Guarantees Israel Won’t Target Airport
Israel’s Netanyahu Says Israel Has Taken Out Nasrallah’s Successors
Hezbollah Steps up Rocket Fire into Israel, Which Sends More Troops into Lebanon
Israeli Military Says it Killed Senior Hezbollah Commander in Beirut
France, Qatar Deliver Urgent Aid to Lebanon, Foreign Minister Says
More Countries Evacuate Nationals from Lebanon
Israel begins 'targeted' ground operations in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah leader says more Israelis will be displaced as the militants extend their rocket fire
Who is Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's deputy chief?
Lebanon abandoned by international community - ex PM
France, Qatar deliver urgent aid to Lebanon, foreign minister says
Who is Hashem Safieddine, the Nasrallah relative seen as future Hezbollah leader?
Israel deploys fourth army division in south Lebanon offensive, says senior Hezbollah official probably dead
The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023
With Hospitals Full in Lebanon, Family Flees to Give Birth in Iraq
Lebanese Fishermen Stay Ashore after Israeli Warning

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 08-09/2024
Netanyahu Says Israel ‘Will Continue to Fight’ Its Enemies
Israeli Strike Targets Residential Building in Syria’s Damascus, Say State Media
Israel's strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support
As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe
Israel may have military superiority, but it lacks a clear strategic vision, say experts
Heavy fighting in Gaza's Jabalia as Israel conducts new ground operation
A year after Oct. 7, Hamas faces dissent in Gaza as war takes toll
Pro-Palestinian activists target UK offices of Germany's Allianz
UN Chief Tells Israel That Draft Law Blocking Aid Agency UNRWA Would Be ‘Catastrophe
Iran foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia, regional countries
Iran warns Israel against any attack, threatens stronger retaliation
US targets Hamas with sanctions on anniversary of Gaza war
Palestinians evacuating northern Gaza say they are being shot at by Israeli military
Gaza is in ruins after Israel's yearlong offensive. Rebuilding may take decades

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 08-09/2024
How to End the War in Lebanon/Elie Aoun/October 08/2024
In Iran, war jitters fuel public support for developing nuclear weapons/Laura King, Omid Khazani/Los Angeles Times/October 08/2024
The candidates’ response to Hurricane Helene tells voters all they need to know/Austin Sarat, opinion contributor/The Hill/October 08/2024
Israel may have military superiority, but it lacks a clear strategic vision, say experts/Thibault Spirlet,Hannah Abraham/Business Insider/October 08/2024
Israel Defense Chief’s US Trip Postponed After Netanyahu Objects/Dan Williams and Natalia Drozdiak/Bloomberg/October08/2024
The Palestinian Tradition of Celebrating the Death of Jews/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 08/2024

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 08-09/2024
Elias Bejjani / Text and Video: Analysis of Naïm Qassem’s Illusions, Delusions, Denial and Treacherous Speech
October 08/2024

https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135390/
Sheikh Naïm Qassem’s speech today was a blatant display of mental and psychological denial regarding the state of Lebanon and Hezbollah. It was, first and foremost, a clear and documented affirmation that Hezbollah is entirely an Iranian proxy, with no connection whatsoever to Lebanon, the Arab world, or humanity. Sheikh Qassem, “God save us from harm,” is nothing more than a mouthpiece for the Iranian regime.
Secondly, his reckless, jihadist rhetoric acts as a “carte blanche” (license) for Israel, the free world, and moderate Arab states to strengthen their support for Netanyahu, continue funding him, and back his efforts to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah. This would also result in the displacement of our Lebanese Shiites brothers and the destruction of their regions along with all of Lebanon.
In his speech, Qassem boasted about the supposed fear, displacement of its northern residents, economic loses and the fear, anxiety that Israelis are experiencing, based on his delusional interpretations. However, he willfully ignored the suffering of the Lebanese Shiites, in particular, and the Lebanese people as a whole. With foolishness and denial, he claimed that displacement of the Lebanese in their own country is a form of resistance. Similarly, Sheikh Sadiq al-Nabulsi has echoed the absurd notion that drug trafficking and smuggling are tools of Hezbollah’s so-called resistance.
This madman and Iranian puppet declared, “In war, it’s the first to scream who loses, and we will not scream.” This bizarre detachment from reality is alarming, especially considering the tragedies that have befallen the Shiites and Lebanon as a whole. His speech was nothing but empty rhetoric, fantasies, delusions, and a call suicidal of the Lebanese people.
Qassem’s treacherous speech showed no regard for Lebanon, or the Lebanese people, nor did it acknowledge the catastrophic consequences of the war on the Lebanese Shiites, all caused by Hezbollah’s loyalty to Iran and its criminal actions.
Qassem divided his miserable speech into three main points:
*He thanked Iran and its leaders, glorifying their support, as if Iran had not already abandoned Hezbollah, either willingly or by force, allowing Israel to assassinate its leaders, displace the Shiites, and destroy their regions.
*He refused to separate Hezbollah’s war in Lebanon from the conflict in Gaza.
*He confirmed that the war would continue and that Hezbollah would ultimately claim victory.
Foolishly, he boasted about national unity and the supposed solidarity of the Lebanese people behind Hezbollah. He ignored the fact that the Lebanese welcomed the displaced Shiites out of humanity, not in support of Hezbollah, a criminal and Persian-backed entity. Most Shiites and all free Lebanese see Hezbollah as nothing but demons, murderers, and enemies.
In conclusion, Israel who is facing an existential threat, along with the Arab world, the West, and the USA, will not stop the war until Hezbollah, the party of Satan, is completely uprooted from Lebanon. Hezbollah, along with Iran, Hamas, and their criminal network, must surrender.
In wars, there must be a victor and a defeated, and without any doubt, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and their terrorist jihadist allies are on the losing side of the conflict with Israel.
From a Lebanese perspective, there is no resistance—only Iranian and Brotherhood-affiliated terrorists, blood merchants, and mafia-like criminals from top to bottom.
In regards to Lebanon’s bright future after the Hezbollah’s era is over, the next president must renounce all ties to this so-called resistance and after bringing Hezbollah’s leaders to justice for their countless crimes, they must be deported to Iran.
God curse this fraudulent resistance and its leaders Iranian masters. Without any doubt, the mullahs are leading to death everyone connected to Hezbollah, down to the last one of them.
Lebanon has long been under Hezbollah’s mere control, now is the time to reclaim the state, restore its sovereignty, and eliminate Hezbollah’s grip.
As for the silence of certain Christian leaders, like the pharaonic “Abu al-Hul,” it is disgraceful and a complete betrayal. Silence, in this case, is the behavior of the dead.
*The author, Elias Bejjani, is a Lebanese expatriate activist
Author’s Email: Phoenicia@hotmail.com
Author’s Website: http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com

Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The End of Iran’s Reign of Terror and Hezbollah's Demise
Elias Bejjani/October 06/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135390/I strongly recommend watching the five enclosed interviews posted on my website, https://eliasbejjaninews.com/. These interviews are crucial as they reveal the trajectory of the region, culminating in the conclusion that the mission of the criminal, repressive Iranian Mullah regime is nearing its end. This regime, having served its role as the Western alliance’s boogeyman, has frightened the Sunni Arab world into accepting Israel. Every Arab nation has now recognized Israel, viewing Iran as the true existential threat. Even Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince has publicly acknowledged that Israel could be a potential ally.
The anticipated event, either today or tomorrow, will be a massive Israeli military strike against Iran, backed by international Western (NATO) forces and with Arab blessings under the table. This attack will mark the first anniversary of Hamas's barbaric jihadist invasion on October 7 last year, restoring Israel’s deterrence and balance of power, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised. Netanyahu declared just yesterday that Israel will strike Iran, shift the regional balance, and obliterate Hezbollah by force, stripping it of its weapons once and for all.
Lebanon’s Political Puppetry
Anyone counting on Nabih Berri, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, to lead the efforts aiming to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence is as deluded as someone hoping a wolf will guard sheep. Berri is nothing more than a polished puppet of Hezbollah—a terrorist entity at its core and a servant of Iran, disguised with a necktie to further deceive the people. Berri, along with his Amal Movement and all other Shiite authorities, was militarily defeated and eliminated during the "Iqlim al-Tuffah" battle (March 1988) under Iranian orders, with Syrian backing and Israeli assistance.
As for Najib Mikati, Lebanon's current PM, he’s nothing but a hypocritical merchant whose shameful history and betrayal exposes his consistent service to the Assad and Mullah regimes at Lebanon’s expense.
Regarding our Christian Maronite leaders in particular, and Christians in general, it’s tragic that they have become nothing more than spineless, politically and nationally emasculated traders, much like the traitorous disciple who sold Christ to be crucified for 30 pieces of silver. These are the worst leaders we’ve seen in 1,400 years of our history, with no exceptions, whether civilians or clergy. Among the worst is Samir Geagea, whose  shameful silence throughout the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war has been deafening, even as he prevents his supporters from expressing their views and concerns. Sadly, his supporters are stupidly accepting the role of sheep.
In regards to former President Michel Aoun and his corrupt son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, they are both a disgrace, and their pitiful status reflects that of the rest of the politicians and the heads of the commercial, narcissistic political parties. Sadly, our beloved Lebanon today is devoid of any national leadership, both religious and political, which is unsurprising given that the Palestinian, Syrian, and Iranian occupations since the 1970s have neutered the political and religious class and molded them to serve their interests.
The Path to Lebanon's Liberation
The salvation of Lebanon will not come from the hands of the current leaders, parties, or politicians who handed it over to foreign occupations, betrayed its people, conspired against it, robbed its bank deposits, displaced and humiliated its citizens, and reduced themselves to tools and empty puppets.
Lebanon’s solution lies in placing it under the guardianship of the United Nations Security Council, enforcing international resolutions—namely the Armistice Agreement, Resolution 1559, 1701, and 1680—by force under Chapter VII, with the aim of rehabilitating the Lebanese people to govern themselves.
In the same context, Former Minister Youssef Salameh’s predictions in an interview conducted with him yesterday are highly plausible in light of the ongoing war between Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, and their other terrorist proxies: He loudly with confidence and proves said:
The world western powers dealt with Hassan Nasrallah the same way they did with Bashir Gemayel, Rafic Hariri, and Kamal Jumblatt—the four were assassinated after their roles were finished. This historical reality supports the reasoning behind Nasrallah’s eventual elimination.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard was created by NATO to divide Sunnis and Shiites, forcing the Sunnis to recognize Israel, which is precisely what happened. Hezbollah’s role has ended, and Nasrallah has been eliminated as a result.
Iran is not a strong state and does not wield significant influence on the international stage, not even in determining Nasrallah’s fate. Its regime’s collapse is inevitable now that its purpose has been exhausted.
Militarily unbalanced wars, such as the one Hezbollah and Hamas are waging against Israel, are suicidal endeavors, which is the current reality.
What protects Lebanon from Israel is the international system, not Hezbollah’s so-called resistance lie and heresy.
Lebanon must move toward peace with Israel, just like every other Arab nation.
There will be no compromise on Lebanon’s sovereignty and independence. The concept of "resistance" is obsolete, and no state can exist within the shadow of a militia.
Walid Jumblatt’s daily bizarre stances are circumstantial, and his support for Hezbollah does not reflect the Druze community’s stance, which opposes Hezbollah.
Hassan Nasrallah has always been alienated from Lebanon’s national entity, calling for an Islamic state and proudly declaring himself a soldier of Iran’s Supreme Leader, loyal to the Iranian regime.
The assassination of Nasrallah signifies the end of a regional era—the Mullah regime and its tentacles, including Hezbollah.
The era of Shiites political dominance in Lebanon is over, and Lebanon is on the path to sovereignty, freedom, and independence.

Sheikh Qassem Speech Text and Video Link: Hezbollah’s Military Capabilities Solid, Will Emerge Victorious
Al-Manar English Website/October 8, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut4dw2IVAzo
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem stressed on Tuesday that the Lebanese resistance group’s chain of command is fine and that its military capabilities are solid, as he vowed that the resistance will emerge victorious against the Israeli enemy.
In a televised speech via Al-Manar on the first anniversary of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Sheikh Qassem affirmed that Hezbollah is not frightened by the alliance of the Israeli enemy with the United States and some European countries. He addressed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who vowed to bring the Zionist settlers back to northern occupied Palestine by saying: “Many more (settlers) will be displaced.” Sheikh Qassem lashed out at the US for being key partner in the war which is aimed at eliminating the Axis of Resistance and exterminating the Palestinian people.
He said that the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood is an exceptional event and the beginning of change in the Middle East. The Hezbollah deputy chief hailed the resistance in Gaza as “legendary and capable of withstanding more and more”.
“We Are Not Scared”
Sheikh Qassem said that the alliance of the Israeli enemy along with the US and some European countries doesn’t frighten the Lebanese resistance. He said that the Zionist entity and the Western countries have been trying to “put fear” into the Lebanese resistance group after the assassination of Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, “but it’s not working.”“We are the sons of Axis of Resistance’s Master of Martyrs Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,” the Hezbollah deputy chief said, as he praised the martyred S.G. for putting “fear in the hearts of the Zionists and fighting the criminals of the occupation”. He hailed Operation Al-Aqsa Flood as “an extraordinary and exceptional event which represents the beginning of change in the Middle East… and the first step for change” towards freedom for the Palestinians.” Sheikh Qassem noted that the Israeli enemy’s goal “was to completely eliminate the Axis of Resistance and exterminate the Palestinian people,” stressing that the Israeli crimes against Palestinian women, children and elderly are unparalleled in the history.
In this regard, he hailed the Palestinian resistance in Gaza as legendary, noting that and “it’s capable of withstanding more and more.” Sheikh Qassem stressed that the US is a key partner in this aggression, as well as some European countries. He said Lebanon has been under aggression, noting that Netanyahu has repeatedly declared that he wants a “new Middle East.”
Resistance’s Determination Firm
Sheikh Qassem said that the Lebanese front “has exhausted the enemy throughout 11 months and has displaced tens of thousands of Israeli settlers.” “This war has never and will never affect our determination to confront the Israeli aggression.” He stressed that Hezbollah fighters in the battlefield are solid, and that the command is coherent. “Netanyahu says that the settlers will return to the north and we tell him that many more will be displaced.” Sheikh Qassem warned the Israeli enemy that “the longer the war continues; the more difficult impasse Israel will face.”“We are striking the enemy and expanding the range of fire, we will reach any place at the time we decide according to our plan. We are steadfast and we will emerge victorious.”Meanwhile, Sheikh Qassem praised Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri, stressing that Hezbollah and Amal Movement are “one heart in good times and bad.”
“We fully trust our “big brother” Speaker Nabih Berri,” his eminence said. He stressed: “We are the people of the battlefield and we will never beg for a solution.” “This war is a war of who screams first and we will not scream, we will continue and we will offer sacrifices, you will hear the enemy screaming, God willing.”
Hezbollah Chain of Command Fine
On the other hand, Sheikh Qassem reassured that the resistance’s chain of command is fine, noting that there is no vacant position in Hezbollah. “I tell you that the chain of command is operating strictly regular and we have overcome the painful blows that have been inflicted on us.”
“We don’t have a vacant position, all positions are filled and Hezbollah is working with full readiness and regularity,” he added. He affirmed, meanwhile, that the resistance group “will elect a new secretary-general and will announce it once it has been done.”
“Everything that the martyred leaders had, their assistants and replacements have copies of,” his eminence reassured.
Solid Military Capabilities
Sheikh Qassem affirmed that Hezbollah’s ability to resist Israel’s military is intact. “Our military capabilities are fine. What our enemies say about our fighting capabilities is an illusion. They are lying.” “Our fighters on the front line are solid. The Israeli plan is to kill Lebanese civilians and empty villages to cause chaos. But I tell them, your efforts are a failure.”He noted that the Israeli ground incursion in southern Lebanon began a week ago, stressing that the Israeli army has yet to advance. The Hezbollah deputy chief stressed that the resistance fighters are fully ready to engage in face-to-face battles with the Israeli enemy forces.“We will neither abandon our positions, nor hand over our weapons,” stated Sheikh Qassem. Sheikh Qassem’s speech is the second since martyrdom of S.G. Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah in a flagrant Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburb, Dagiyeh, on September 27.
On September 30, Sheikh Qassem said that Hezbollah was using the minimum of its capabilities, voicing full readiness for all scenarios.

War Piles Yet More Trauma on Lebanon's Exhausted People
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Ask a Lebanese person how they are, and you're likely to be met with a heavy pause or a pained smile. Years of crisis have drained them, and now Israeli air strikes are pushing many to breaking point. Cartoonist Bernard Hage, who draws under the name Art of Boo, summed it up a few weeks ago with a layer cake. These layers are "Financial Collapse", "Pandemic", the 2020 "Beirut Port Explosion", "Political Deadlock" and "Mass Depression".
"War" is now the cherry on top.
Carine Nakhle, a supervisor at suicide helpline Embrace, says the trauma is never-ending. "The Lebanese population is not OK," she said, AFP reported. The hotline's some 120 operators take shifts around the clock all week to field calls from people in distress. Calls have increased to some 50 a day since Israel increased its airstrikes against Lebanon on September 23. The callers are "people who are in shock, people who are panicking", Nakhle said. "Many of them have been calling us from areas where they are being bombed or from shelters." Israel's bombardment of Lebanon, mostly in the south and in Beirut's southern suburbs, has killed more than 1,100 people and displaced upwards of a million in less than two weeks. Tens of thousands have found refuge in central Beirut, whose streets now throng with homeless people and where the traffic is even more swollen than usual.
'Huge injustice'
Every night, airstrikes on the southern suburbs force people to flee their homes, as huge blasts rattle windows and spew clouds of debris skywards. Ringing out across Beirut, the explosions awaken terrible memories: of the massive 2020 Beirut port blast that decimated large parts of the city; of the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006; and of the 1975-1990 civil war. This latest affliction comes on the back of years of the worst financial crisis in Lebanon's history that has plunged much of its middle class into poverty. Rita Barotta, 45, lives near the relatively quiet Christian-majority town of Jounieh north of Beirut. She says she cannot hear the airstrikes, but also that she no longer has the words "to describe what is happening" to Lebanon. "I no longer know what being me 15 days ago looked like," said the university lecturer in communications, who has thrown herself into helping the displaced. "Eating, sleeping, looking after my plants -- none of that's left. I'm another me. The only thing that exists now for me is how I can help." Networking on her phone, Barotta spends her days trying to find shelter or medicine for those in need."If I stop for even five minutes, I feel totally empty," she said. Barotta almost lost her mother in the Beirut port explosion, and says that keeping busy is the only way for her not to feel "overwhelmed and petrified". "What is happening today is not just a new trauma, it's a sense of huge injustice. Why are we being put through all this?"
'Just can't anymore' -
A 2022 study before the war by Lebanese non-governmental organization IDRAAC found that at least a third of Lebanese battled with mental health problems. Rami Bou Khalil, head of psychiatry at Beirut's Hotel Dieu hospital, said all Lebanese were struggling in one way or another. "Lebanese have a great capacity for resilience," he said, citing support from family, community and religion. "But there is this accumulation of stress that is making the glass overflow.""For years, we have been drawing on our physical, psychological and financial resources. People just can't anymore," he said. He said he worries because some people who should be hospitalized cannot afford it, and others are relapsing "because they can no longer take a hit".Many more people were relying on sleeping pills. "People want to sleep," he said, and swallowing pills is easier when you have neither the time nor the money to be treated.
Nakhle, from Embrace, said many people sought help from non-governmental organizations as they could not afford the $100 consultation fee for a therapist at a private clinic.
At the charity's health centre, the waiting list for an appointment is four to five months long.

Lebanon Says Has ‘Assurances’ but No Guarantees Israel Won’t Target Airport

Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Beirut has received "assurances" that Israel will not target the country's only international airport, Lebanon's transport minister told AFP, but said those fell short of guarantees.
Since September 23, Israel has launched an intense air campaign mainly targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon including Beirut's southern suburbs, adjacent to the airport. On Monday, the United States warned Israel not to attack the Beirut airport or the roads leading to it, after repeated Israeli strikes near the facility. Lebanon "seeks to keep its public airport, sea ports and land crossings -- chief among them the Rafik Hariri International Airport -- functional," Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamieh told AFP. "Ongoing international calls have given us a sort of assurance" the airport will be spared Israeli strikes, he said, however adding that "there is a big difference between assurances and guarantees".Hamieh denied Israeli accusations that Hezbollah was using the airport and border crossings to smuggle weapons. The Beirut airport "is subject to Lebanese laws and to the scrutiny of various relevant departments and security agencies", he said. "Any military aircraft or plane carrying weapons must be approved by the Lebanese army" and be licensed to do so by his ministry. He said his ministry was "fully coordinating" with the army and relevant state agencies to keep land, air and sea ports safe because "if these ports are closed, it means we're under siege". On Friday, the Israeli army said its fighter jets struck Hezbollah targets near the Masnaa border crossing, damaging the main road between Lebanon and Syria and preventing vehicles from getting through.
Dozens are still crossing the border on foot. Lebanon's government said more than 400,000 people had fled to Syria to escape Israeli bombardment, with tens of thousands crossing from Masnaa before the main road was bombed.
"Closing off this crossing has created a big problem," Hamieh said, adding that the government was "making the necessary calls to get it back up and running again".The Masnaa crossing is Lebanon's main land gateway to the rest of the region. "The Masnaa crossing is a major crossing... for imports and exports, and a vital crossing for Lebanese farmers and industrialists for land exports," he said.

Israel’s Netanyahu Says Israel Has Taken Out Nasrallah’s Successors

Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Israeli forces have taken out the would-be successors of late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday, without naming them. "We've degraded Hezbollah's capabilities. We took out thousands of terrorists, including Nasrallah himself and Nasrallah's replacement, and the replacement of the replacement," Netanyahu said in a pre-recorded video message. Earlier, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Hashem Safieddine, the man expected to replace the slain Nasrallah, had probably been "eliminated".
It was not immediately clear whom Netanyahu meant by the "replacement of the replacement". Safieddine, a top Hezbollah official was widely expected to succeed Nasrallah, according to Reuters. "Hezbollah is an organization without a head. Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated," Gallant told officers at the military's northern command center, in a brief video segment distributed by the military. "There's no one to make decisions, no one to act," he said. Safieddine had been running Hezbollah alongside its deputy secretary general Naim Qassem since Nasrallah's assassination and was expected to be formally elected as its next secretary general, although no official announcement had yet been made. Qassem said in a televised statement on Tuesday that the group will elect a new secretary general and will announce it once it has been done.

Hezbollah Steps up Rocket Fire into Israel, Which Sends More Troops into Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets into Israel on Tuesday, and the armed group’s acting leader vowed to keep up pressure that has forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military said it sent more ground troops into southern Lebanon, and that a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in an airstrike. Dozens of rockets fired by Hezbollah were aimed as far south as Haifa, and the Israeli government warned residents to the north of the coastal city to limit activities, prompting the closure of more schools. The Israeli military said Hezbollah launched more than 170 rockets across the border. Sheikh Naim Qassem, the acting leader of Hezbollah, said its military capabilities are still intact after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon, and attacks that killed its top commanders in a matter of days. Qassem said Israeli forces have not been able to advance since launching a ground incursion into Lebanon last week. The Israeli military said Tuesday it deployed a fourth division, and that operations have expanded to the west, but its focus still appears to be a narrow strip along the border.
The Israeli military said it has dismantled militant infrastructure along the border and killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters. On Tuesday, it said a strike in Beirut had killed Suhail Husseini, who it described as a senior commander responsible overseeing logistics, budget and management of the armed group. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah, and no way to confirm battlefield claims made by either side. Israeli forces also fought heavy battles Tuesday with Palestinian fighters in northern Gaza, where residents were ordered in recent days to evacuate.
Qassem, speaking by video from an undisclosed location, said: “We are firing hundreds of rockets and dozens of drones. A large number of settlements and cities are under the fire of the resistance.”
He said Hezbollah will name a new leader to succeed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a bunker in Beirut last month, “but the circumstances are difficult because of the war.”Qassem said Hezbollah backs efforts by Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire, but did not specify whether that means the group would be willing to accept a truce before there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, has been seen as the main interlocutor between the group and the United States, and has been trying to broker a ceasefire since fighting began a year ago.
The Israeli army said 170 projectiles were launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel on Tuesday, and that its aerial defense intercepted most of them. A 70-year-old woman was wounded by shrapnel and Israeli media aired footage of what appeared to be minor damage to buildings near Haifa. The military also said it struck Hezbollah targets in the southern Beirut suburbs, known as the Dahiyeh, where the group is headquartered. Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas' surprise attack into Israel ignited the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allied with Iran. Israel has inflicted a punishing wave of blows against Hezbollah in recent weeks and says it will keep fighting until tens of thousands of displaced Israeli citizens can return to their homes in the north. More than 1,300 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced since the fighting escalated in mid-September. Since then, Hezbollah has extended its rocket fire into central Israel, setting off air raid sirens in the country's commercial hub of Tel Aviv.
Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen have also launched missiles that reached central Israel. Most of the projectiles have been intercepted or fallen in open areas, disrupting life in Israel while causing few casualties and little property damage. Last week, Iran launched its own barrage of some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, in what it said was a response to the killing of Nasrallah, an Iranian general who was with him at the time and Ismail Haniyeh, the top leader of Hamas, who was killed in an explosion in Iran's capital in July. Israel has vowed to respond to the missile attack, without saying when or how. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington this week to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. The Biden administration says it is opposed to an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which could escalate regional tensions even further.

Israeli Military Says it Killed Senior Hezbollah Commander in Beirut
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
The Israeli military eliminated Suhail Hussein Husseini, the commander of Hezbollah's headquarters, in a strike in the area of Beirut, it said in a statement on Tuesday.
It said Husseini was responsible for overseeing logistics, budget and management of the group. The military added that Husseini was involved in the transfer of advanced weapons from Iran and their distribution to different Hezbollah units, and that he was a member of the group’s military council. On Monday, Iran-backed Hezbollah said it targeted a military base south of Haifa with "Fadi 1" missiles and launched another strike on Tiberias, 65 km away. The armed group later said it also targeted areas north of Haifa with missiles. Israel's military said about 190 projectiles entered its territory on Monday. There were at least 12 injuries. Israel's military said the air force was carrying out extensive bombings of Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon and eastern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two Israeli soldiers were killed on Monday, taking the Israeli military death toll inside Lebanon to 11. Israeli airstrikes have displaced 1.2 million people in Lebanon. Israeli forces issued a warning in Arabic to beachgoers and boat users to avoid a stretch of the Lebanese coast, saying they would soon begin operations against Hezbollah from the sea. Lebanon's health ministry reported dozens of deaths, including 10 firefighters killed in an airstrike on a municipal building in the border area. About 2,000 Lebanese have been killed since Hezbollah began firing at Israel a year ago in solidarity with Hamas, most killed in the past few weeks. The Israeli military has described its ground operation in Lebanon as "localized, limited and targeted," but it has steadily increased in scale beginning last week.

France, Qatar Deliver Urgent Aid to Lebanon, Foreign Minister Says
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
France and Qatar delivered urgent humanitarian aid to Lebanon on Tuesday, France's foreign minister said, as Paris pushes for broader humanitarian efforts and a ceasefire in the country. "If we don't do anything, then Lebanon tomorrow could resemble what Syria has become," Jean-Noel Barrot told lawmakers in parliament. "(That is), a hub of instability for smuggling, terrorism and a point of departure for a large migration of civilians seeking refuge in Europe."French and Qatari military planes delivered some 27 metric tons of medicines and basic necessities, including blankets and hygiene kits, diplomatic sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.Paris has historical ties with Lebanon and has been working with the United States in trying to secure a ceasefire in the Middle Eastern country. Those talks stalled at the end of September when Israel heavily bombed Beirut's southern suburbs, killing longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. It has since launched a ground offensive displacing thousands of people. Tuesday's Franco-Qatari aid aims to support local aid groups to help the wounded and displaced. The two sides must accept the ceasefire proposal, Barrot said, to "give peace and negotiations a chance to guarantee the sovereignty of Lebanon and security for Israel." France is also working to put together a conference on Lebanon soon that will center around three pillars: humanitarian aid, reinforcing the Lebanese army and discussing the ongoing political vacuum in the country, Barrot said.

More Countries Evacuate Nationals from Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
A German air force plane is flying another 89 German citizens out of Lebanon, the fourth such flight in the past 10 days. The Foreign Ministry wrote on X on Tuesday that the military Airbus A321 flew 2 tons of medical aid for Lebanese civilians to Beirut. Germany already organized three military flights out of Beirut last week, which took a total of 460 of the country’s nationals out of Lebanon. Meanwhile, the second repatriation flight from Lebanon organized by the Brazilian government landed in Sao Paulo with 227 people, including 49 children, the Brazilian air force said.
On its journey to Lebanon, the plane chartered by the Brazilian air force took medical and hospital supplies donated by Brazil, the Foreign Ministry said, adding that more flights will follow. About 21,000 Brazilians live in Lebanon, which is home to the largest community of Brazilians in the Middle East. Two Brazilian adolescents have been killed by Israeli bombardments in Lebanon. China evacuated more than 200 citizens from Lebanon by ship and chartered flight, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday. A total of 211 residents of mainland China, three Hong Kong residents and a Taiwan resident have been evacuated, according to ministry spokesperson Mao Ning. At the request of the Lebanese government, Beijing has agreed to provide Lebanon with emergency humanitarian medical supplies, Mao added.

Israel begins 'targeted' ground operations in southern Lebanon
Darryl Coote/United Press International/October 8, 2024
The Israeli military said Tuesday that it has begun "a targeted and demarcated ground operation" in southern Lebanon, where it claimed Hezbollah militants and infrastructure were located. The 146th Division was operating alongside the 213th Artillery Brigade and additional forces to "expose and dismantle terrorist infrastructure in the area," the Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday morning on its Telegram account, adding it It described the operation as "limited, localized, targeted."
The division, which fought the last year on Israel's northwestern border, is the first reserve division to enter southern Lebanon as part of Operation Northern Arrows, according to a IDF statement on X. Northern Arrows was launched Sept. 23 to destroy Iran-backed Hezbollah and secure Israel's northern border. The ground operation coincides with the anniversary of Hezbollah's involvement in the Israel-Hamas war, launching rockets over the Lebanese border at the neighboring country. Since then, Israel and Hezbollah have traded attacks that have forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate from their northern homes. Then in late September, operation Northern Arrows was launched and Israel vowed to return its evacuated citizens.
According to Lebanon's Ministry of Health, at least 2,083 people have been killed and nearly 10,000 wounded since Oct. 8, 2023, though more than 1,200 were killed since Sept. 23. More than 1 million Lebanese have also been displaced. Israel has issued dozens of evacuation calls throughout southern Lebanon, and the IDF's Arabic-language spokesman, Avichay Adraee, told some evicted Lebanese residents Tuesday that for their safety they are being prohibited to return to their homes. "You should refrain from heading south, anyone who heads south is putting their life in danger," he said on X.

Hezbollah leader says more Israelis will be displaced as the militants extend their rocket fire
Bassem Mroue And Tia Goldenberg/BEIRUT (AP)/October 8, 2024
Hezbollah’s acting leader said Tuesday that even more Israelis will be displaced as the militant group extends its rocket fire deeper into Israel, in a defiant televised statement marking the anniversary of fighting that escalated into war last month.
Sheikh Naim Kassem, the acting leader of Hezbollah, said its military capabilities are still intact and that it has replaced all of its senior commanders after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon, including targeted strikes that killed much of its top command in a matter of days. He also said Israeli forces have not been able to advance after launching a ground incursion into Lebanon last week. The Israeli military said a fourth division is now taking part in the incursion, which has expanded to the west, but operations still appear to be confined to a narrow strip along the border. The Israeli military says it has dismantled militant infrastructure along the border and killed hundreds of Hezbollah fighters. On Tuesday, it said a strike in Beirut had killed Suhail Husseini, who it described as a senior commander responsible overseeing logistics, budget and management of the militant group. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah, and no way to confirm battlefield claims made by either side.
“We are firing hundreds of rockets and dozens of drones. A large number of settlements and cities are under the fire of the resistance,” Kassem said in a video address, speaking from an undisclosed location. “Our capabilities are fine and our fighters are deployed along the frontlines."
He said Hezbollah's top leadership was directing the war and that the commanders killed by Israel have been replaced. “We have no vacant posts,” he added.
He said that Hezbollah will name a new leader to succeed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a bunker in Beirut last month, “but the circumstances are difficult because of the war.”The Israeli military said that 85 projectiles were launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel in a significant burst of fire on Tuesday.
Israel’s aerial defense intercepted most of the rockets, the military said. A 70-year-old woman was moderately wounded by shrapnel and Israeli media aired footage of what appeared to be minor damage to buildings near the coastal city of Haifa.
The military also said that it struck Hezbollah targets in the southern Beirut suburbs, known as the Dahiyeh, where the militant group is headquartered.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas' surprise attack into Israel ignited the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allied with Iran, and Hezbollah says its attacks are aimed at aiding the Palestinians. Israel began carrying out airstrikes in response and the conflict steadily escalated, erupting into a full-fledged war last month.
The Lebanese militant group has said it will stop the attacks if there is a cease-fire in Gaza, but months of diplomatic efforts on that front have repeatedly stalled.
Israel has inflicted a punishing wave of blows against Hezbollah in recent weeks and says it will keep fighting until tens of thousands of displaced Israeli citizens can return to their homes in the north. More than 1,300 people have been killed in Lebanon and over a million displaced since the fighting escalated in mid-September.
Since then, Hezbollah has extended its rocket fire into central Israel, setting off air raid sirens in the country's commercial hub of Tel Aviv. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have also launched missiles that reached central Israel. Most of the projectiles have been intercepted or fallen in open areas, disrupting life in Israel but causing few casualties and little property damage.
Last, week Iran launched its own barrage of some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, in what it said was a response to the killing of Nasrallah, an Iranian general who was with him at the time and Ismail Haniyeh, the top leader of Hamas, who was killed in an explosion in Iran's capital in July.
Israel has vowed to respond to the missile attack, without saying when or how.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington this week to meet with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin. The Biden administration says it is opposed to an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, which could escalate regional tensions even further.

Who is Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's deputy chief?
Reuters/October 8, 2024
Hezbollah's deputy secretary general Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said on Tuesday that the armed group supported efforts to reach a ceasefire for Lebanon, has been a senior figure in the Iran-backed movement for more than 30 years.
Speaking in front of curtains from an undisclosed location, Qassem said the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel was a war about who cries first, and Hezbollah would not cry first. The group's capabilities were intact despite "painful blows" from Israel.
But he added the group supported the efforts of parliament speaker Nabih Berri - a Hezbollah ally - to secure a ceasefire, for the first time omitting any mention of a Gaza truce deal as a pre-condition for halting the group's fire on Israel.
His 30-minute televised address comes just days after senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safieddine is thought to have been the target of an Israeli strike and 11 days after the killing of Hezbollah's secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Qassem was appointed deputy chief in 1991 by the armed group's then-secretary general Abbas al-Musawi, who was killed by an Israeli helicopter attack the following year.
Qassem remained in his role when Nasrallah became leader, and has long been one of Hezbollah's leading spokesmen, conducting interviews with foreign media including as cross-border hostilities with Israel raged over the last year.
Qassem's televised address on Tuesday was his second since hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah intensified in September. He was the first member of Hezbollah's top leadership to make televised remarks after Nasrallah's killing in an Israeli air attack on Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27. Speaking on Sept. 30, Qassem said Hezbollah would choose a successor to its slain secretary general "at the earliest opportunity" and would continue to fight Israel in solidarity with Palestinians. "What we are doing is the bare minimum... We know that the battle may be long," he said in a 19-minute speech. Born in 1953 in Beirut to a family from Lebanon's south, Qassem's political activism began with the Lebanese Shi'ite Amal Movement.
He left the group in 1979 in the wake of Iran's Islamic Revolution, which shaped the political thinking of many young Lebanese Shi'ite activists. Qassem took part in meetings that led to the formation of Hezbollah, established with the backing of Iran's Revolutionary Guards in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. He has been the general coordinator of Hezbollah's parliamentary election campaigns since the group first contested them in 1992.
In 2005, he wrote a history of Hezbollah seen as a rare "insider's look" into the organisation. Qassem wears a white turban unlike Nasrallah and Safieddine, whose black turbans denoted their status as descendants of the Prophet Muhammad.

Lebanon abandoned by international community - ex PM

Anna Foster - BBC News/October 8, 2024
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora during a BBC interview
Fouad Siniora says the conflict in Lebanon should not be inextricably linked to the war in Gaza [BBC] Lebanon’s prime minister at the time of its last war with Israel in 2006 has told the BBC his country has been abandoned by the international community. Fouad Siniora said it was unacceptable to leave Lebanon to fall, and there was a lack of initiative when it came to trying to restore peace. "We are now in a very difficult situation that requires real effort locally, as well on the Arab side and internationally. "You can push things - sometimes to the brink of falling - in a major catastrophe without really realising what it means later on. "It's happening at a time when the American administration is so busy with the elections. "And we are unable to elect a president, because some groups in the country, particularly Hezbollah, have been insisting that they want a president that will not stab that group in the back," Siniora said.
The last war between Lebanon and Israel, nearly 20 years ago, began when Hezbollah fighters crossed the border and attacked Israeli soldiers. Two were kidnapped and three were killed, sparking a month-long conflict. In the days that followed, Siniora made a public statement distancing the Lebanese government from what had happened. He thinks the country’s current leaders have failed their people by not doing the same thing. "This government did not do what my government did that day. My government was very clear and determined in stating that we were not aware, and we were not informed, of Hezbollah’s plan to cross the Blue Line on the border and to kidnap and kill Israeli soldiers. "This time there hasn't been any move made by the Lebanese government. The advantage of what we did is that we created a distance between the Lebanese government and Lebanon on the one hand, and Hezbollah on the other," he explained.
Siniora is unflinching in his assessment of Lebanon’s lost sovereignty.
"Practically, Lebanon as a state has been kidnapped by Hezbollah. And behind Hezbollah is Iran.
"This gun that was held by Hezbollah, instead of being pointed towards Israel, started to be pointed domestically and started to be used as a way for Iran to interfere in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen. Lebanon can’t get involved in such a war."Siniora was also one of the architects of UN resolution 1701, the agreement which ended the 2006 war. Among its conditions was that a swathe of southern Lebanon - the area south of the landmark Litani river - should be kept as a buffer zone between the two sides, free of any Hezbollah fighters or weapons.
Despite the deployment of the UN peacekeeping force Unifil and the presence of the Lebanese army, that didn’t happen. Hezbollah’s people, and its military infrastructure, remained bedded into the area. This vacuum at the top of the Lebanese political system has made Hezbollah’s influence on the country particularly difficult to control. Lebanon has been without a properly functioning government since its last set of elections in 2022, being run instead by a caretaker administration.
When President Michel Aoun’s term ended nearly two years ago, lawmakers couldn’t agree on his replacement - so the job remains empty. Many Lebanese believe leadership is in short supply.
Siniora is also clear that the conflict in Lebanon should not be inextricably linked to the current year-old war in Gaza. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has visited regional capitals, calling for simultaneous ceasefires in both Lebanon and Gaza. “Since October 2023 things have been dragging and getting worse and worse. Many chances were made available to dissociate the Lebanese situation from Gaza. It’s very important nationally and from an Arab point of view to associate with Gaza," Siniora said. "But particularly now Lebanon cannot afford, in principle, to get involved in such a matter. "When the Gaza situation has become 2.2 million Palestinians homeless and all of Gaza destroyed, to continue to link Lebanon's situation with Gaza is not wise."
Bowen: Year of killing and broken assumptions has taken Middle East to edge of deeper, wider war 'I felt like my heart was going to explode': Beirut reels from heaviest night of strikes

France, Qatar deliver urgent aid to Lebanon, foreign minister says
Reuters/October 8, 2024
PARIS (Reuters) - France and Qatar delivered urgent humanitarian aid to Lebanon on Tuesday, France's foreign minister said, as Paris pushes for broader humanitarian efforts and a ceasefire in the country. "If we don't do anything, then Lebanon tomorrow could resemble what Syria has become," Jean-Noel Barrot told lawmakers in parliament. "(That is), a hub of instability for smuggling, terrorism and a point of departure for a large migration of civilians seeking refuge in Europe." French and Qatari military planes delivered some 27 metric tons of medicines and basic necessities, including blankets and hygiene kits, diplomatic sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Paris has historical ties with Lebanon and has been working with the United States in trying to secure a ceasefire in the Middle Eastern country. Those talks stalled at the end of September when Israel heavily bombed Beirut's southern suburbs, killing longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. It has since launched a ground offensive displacing thousands of people. Tuesday's Franco-Qatari aid aims to support local aid groups to help the wounded and displaced. The two sides must accept the ceasefire proposal, Barrot said, to "give peace and negotiations a chance to guarantee the sovereignty of Lebanon and security for Israel." France is also working to put together a conference on Lebanon soon that will centre around three pillars: humanitarian aid, reinforcing the Lebanese army and discussing the ongoing political vacuum in the country, Barrot said.

Who is Hashem Safieddine, the Nasrallah relative seen as future Hezbollah leader?

Reuters/October 8, 2024
BEIRUT (Reuters) -Hashem Safieddine, reported by Israel as apparently killed in its confrontation with Hezbollah, is widely seen as Hassan Nasrallah's likely successor as head of the Iran-backed group. A relative of Nasrallah, he has been running the movement alongside its deputy secretary general Naim Qassem since the assassination by Israel on Sept. 27. Safieddine has sat on the group's Jihad Council - the body responsible for its military operations. He is also head of its executive council, overseeing financial and administrative affairs for the Iran-backed group.
While not as well-known to Israelis as Nasrallah, Safieddine is seen by Israel as a leading target in what it deems a terrorist organisation and a proxy for arch-foe Iran. Safieddine assumed a prominent role speaking for Hezbollah during the past year of hostilities with Israel, addressing funerals and other events that Nasrallah had long avoided for security reasons. He was the first Hezbollah official to speak in public after the group's Palestinian ally Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, igniting the Gaza war that drew the Lebanese Shi'ite Islamist movement into a parallel conflict with Israel.
With observers across the Middle East waiting to see what Hezbollah might do to help Hamas, Safieddine told an Oct. 8 rally in Beirut's southern suburbs that the group's "guns and our rockets are with you". "Everything we have is with you," Safieddine declared.
Like Nasrallah, Safieddine wears the black turban denoting his status as a sayyed, or descendent of the Prophet Mohammed. He bears a strong physical resemblance to Nasrallah. He hails from a prominent Lebanese Shi'ite family, and was born in the country's predominantly Shi'ite south.
Safieddine studied at religious seminaries in the Iranian city of Qom before returning to Lebanon in the 1990s to assume leadership responsibilities in the group. He maintained strong ties to Hezbollah's backers in Iran.
His son, Rida, is married to the daughter of the late Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force until he was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad in 2020. His brother, Abdullah, serves as Hezbollah's representative in Tehran. As executive council chief, Safieddine plays a role some likened to that of prime minister of a government, responsible for an array of Hezbollah institutions involved in health care, education, culture, and construction, and other activities. He led efforts to rebuild the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut following the group's 2006 war with Israel, when swathes of the area were flattened by Israeli airstrikes. In a 2012 speech, Safieddine said the post-war reconstruction had amounted to "a new victory" over Israel. Phillip Smyth, an expert who studies Iran-backed Shi'ite militias, said Nasrallah "started tailoring positions for him within a variety of different councils within Lebanese Hezbollah. Some of them were more opaque than others". The U.S. State Department declared him a specially designated global terrorist in 2017. In response to U.S. pressure on Hezbollah that same year, he said "this mentally impeded, crazy U.S. administration headed by Trump will not be able to harm the resistance".

Israel deploys fourth army division in south Lebanon offensive, says senior Hezbollah official probably dead
Reuters/James Mackenzie and Maya Gebeily/October 8, 2024
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Israel's military said on Tuesday it had deployed a fourth army division into south Lebanon, signalling an expanding ground offensive against Hezbollah, and said the successor to the Iran-backed group's slain leader appeared to have been "eliminated".
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant made the announcement about Hashem Safieddine, in what would be the latest shock to Hezbollah's hierarchy, as Israel began ground operations in southwest Lebanon, extending its incursions to a new zone. As Hezbollah's deputy leader left the door open to a negotiated ceasefire, the Israeli military said it had sent the 146th Division into Lebanon, the first reserve division to have been deployed over the border. A military statement did not specify how many soldiers were now inside Lebanon. But the military had previously announced that three other army divisions were operating there, meaning that thousands of soldiers were likely on Lebanese soil. The Israeli military announced on Oct. 1 that ground forces had entered Lebanon, initially with commando units that were then followed by regular armoured units and infantry units. The army has said the operation is limited in scope. The heightened Middle East tensions kindled a year ago by Palestinian armed group Hamas' attack from Gaza on southern Israel have escalated in recent weeks into an intensifying series of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Oct. 1, Iran, sponsor of both Hezbollah and Hamas, fired missiles at Israel. On Tuesday Iran warned Israel not to follow through on threats of retaliation. Its foreign minister said any attack on Iran's infrastructure would be avenged. Western powers are seeking a diplomatic solution, fearing the conflict could roil the wider, oil-producing Middle East. The area of Israeli operations in Lebanon has been widened. The Israeli military said it was now conducting "limited, localised, targeted operations" in Lebanon's southwest, having previously announced such operations in the southeast. A military spokesperson declined to say how many troops were in Lebanon at one time. "It is a dynamic type of operation, limited, targeted raids and raids means in and out, means movement, means different locations, means different forces and so on," Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told a briefing with reporters.
TRADING FIRE
Overnight, Israel again bombed Beirut's southern suburbs where Hezbollah is headquartered and said it had killed a figure responsible for the heavily armed Iranian proxy militia's budgeting and logistics, Suhail Hussein Husseini - the latest in a strong of assassinations of some of Hezbollah's top officials.
In northern Israel not far from the Lebanon border, warning sirens sounded regularly throughout Tuesday as authorities said Hezbollah fired almost 200 rockets into Israel. Targets again included Haifa, the northern port city where there were multiple reports of damage to buildings from missile debris. Israel's military said it had struck the launchers that fired the missiles at Haifa. The mushrooming Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has killed well over 1,000 people in Lebanon in the past two weeks and prompted the mass flight of more than a million.Israel's stated objective is to make its northern areas safe from Hezbollah rocket fire and allow thousands of displaced residents to return.
NASRALLAH SUCCESSOR LIKELY 'ELIMINATED'
Safieddine, the senior Hezbollah official, was widely expected to succeed Hassan Nasrallah, the Shi'ite Muslim movement's longtime leader assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on south Beirut on Sept. 27. Safieddine has not been heard from publicly since another Israeli airstrike late last week.
"Hezbollah is an organisation without a head. Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated," Gallant told officers at the Israeli military's northern command centre, in a brief video segment distributed by the military. Safieddine has been a prime target for Israel, nurtured as an influential leader and potential heir to Nasrallah. As head of Hezbollah's executive council, he has overseen the group's political affairs, while also sitting on the Jihad Council, which manages its military operations.
CEASEFIRE EFFORTS
In a televised speech from an undisclosed location shown before the release of Gallant's video, Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem said he backed attempts to secure a truce.For the first time, the end of war in Gaza was not mentioned as a pre-condition to halting combat on the Lebanon-Israel border.
Qassem said Hezbollah supported attempts by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, to secure a halt to fighting. It was not clear whether Qassem's remarks signalled any change in stance, after a year in which the group has said it is fighting in support of the Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, and would not stop without a ceasefire there. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declined to comment on Qassem's remarks. Qassem said Hezbollah's capabilities were intact despite "painful blows" from Israel. "Dozens of cities are within range of the resistance's missiles. We assure you that our capabilities are fine." (This story has been refiled to add the missing word 'official' in the headline) (Reporting by Elwely Elewelly in Dubai and Maya Gebeily in Beirut and Benoit Van Overstraeten in Brussels and Emma Farge in Geneva; writing by Michael Georgy and Mark Heinrich; editing by Peter Graff, Timothy Heritage and Ros Russell)

The Truth between Two Wars: July 2006 and October 2023
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
The dangerous plight Lebanon endured in 2006 and currently enduring since October 8, 2023, share several similarities and vast differences. The moment the Israeli enemy carried out its aggression against Lebanon in July 2006 – under the pretext of retaliating to a Hezbollah military operation and kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers – I called cabinet to meet to discuss the danger of the assault and its consequences. We discussed measures that should be taken to protect national security and civilians in areas that were being targeted to prevent the South from being emptied of its people. I clearly stated that the government was taken by surprise by Hezbollah’s operation. We were unaware of it and did not adopt it. We condemned the Israeli aggression against Lebanon, its sovereignty and people, and urged the need to file an urgent complaint at the United Nations Security Council and demand a ceasefire.
Distance between the state and party -
The government effectively established a clear distance between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah, allowing it to address the Arab and international communities to help Lebanon and strengthen its perseverance. This also enabled and allowed it to assume its role as the victim – a role Israel had tried to play since that morning of July 12, 2023. I made sure that the Lebanese state, with all of its elements and means, would be responsible for everything: tackling the outcomes of what happened and what would happen, that it would assume its responsibilities in taking all measures and decisions to protect Lebanon and its people, and that it would provide all the means for their perseverance and protect the displaced Lebanese. Since that day, the government Serial turned into a tireless national workshop, while members of government formed a united team to defend Lebanon and ensure the functioning of state institutions to allow daily life to continue. Civil society was also entrusted with playing its role in defending Lebanon.
On the external front, and with the cooperation of Lebanon’s foreign minister, daily contacts were intensified with senior world officials, such as the UN secretary-general, heads of fraternal Arab states and friendly influential countries that could impact world decisions. A ceasefire was our primary demand at the Security Council. At the time, the Israeli enemy continued its war on Lebanon. It targeted vital facilities, destroyed bridges, roads, schools and infrastructure in villages and towns. The government, meanwhile, worked tirelessly in bringing together the world and international organizations to condemn the assault against Lebanon.
Seven-point plan -
Along with the cabinet and effective role of the president, I presented to world leaders and the Security Council solutions to end the war against Lebanon. The government adopted a seven-point plan that I proposed at the Rome conference. The plan was adopted by the Security Council as part of its international resolution for a ceasefire. The Security Council issued resolution 1701 and the war ended. The displaced returned to their homes and villages starting August 14, 2006. The reconstruction plan of infrastructure and destroyed and damaged buildings was carried out with the highest level of competence, credibility, efficiency and speed in due to the generous aid offered by Arab states, especially the Gulf, and friendly countries. Lebanon could rely on these countries after the trust that the government consolidated and built with all brothers and friends.
And so, Lebanon rose again and prospered. It went on to resume its natural Arab and international role. From 2007 and 2010, Lebanon achieved the highest growth rate in its history and over a four-year period. It achieved a major surplus in its balance of payments and a very positive surplus in its foreign currency reserves in the Central Bank. It also achieved a major relative drop in its public debt.
Unity of arenas without foundation -
In contrast, what happened on October 8, 2023, was a result of Hezbollah’s vision of the “unity of arenas”. It took its actions alone and at its own responsibility without informing or the knowledge of the legitimate authorities in Lebanon. It opened the southern Lebanese front with occupied Palestine without also taking into consideration the very dire circumstances that Lebanon has been and still continues to endure. The very next day I issued a statement stressing that Lebanon will not and cannot be dragged into such a military battle. I listed five fundamental reasons: the national and political crisis caused by the vacuum in the presidency, failure to form a responsible government, the stifling economic crisis, the Syrian refugee crisis and Lebanon’s loss of close ties with its Arab fold and loss of the Arab and international safety net that protected it in 2006. Added to that is the majority of the Lebanese people’s lack of sympathy or support of Hezbollah’s military operation.
Now, resolution 1701 has not been implemented as it should, and the UN and Security Council have not played their role in ensuring the implementation of all international resolutions related to Lebanon and the Palestinian cause. Israel has proven that it does not want just and lasting peace in the region. It does not recognize international law, international legitimacy or human rights. It has been running rampant in genocide, killing, and destruction in Gaza and the West Bank. Now, it has its sights on Lebanon where it is killing civilians and displacing the people, destroying homes and infrastructure and abusing modern technology.
Nation searches for heroes -
Now, we are where we are, facing obstacles to outlets that can help Lebanon out of this Israeli aggression. I believe that certain officials in Lebanon can play a major national role in the absence of a president. I believe these figures are Nabih Berri, the parliament speaker, and Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister. They must intensify their efforts and earn this heroic role. All dutiful officials must save Lebanon and take the initiative to help it through adopting the following six points:
First, national duty demands that all Lebanese people come together and act according to a unified basis and national fraternity. The entire Lebanese population condemns this barbaric Israeli aggression that is targeting the whole of Lebanon and its structure, which cannot tolerate the idea of no victor and no vanquished. Second, solutions in Lebanon can only be reached through unifying national proposals that are based on the full implementation of the Taif Accord and Lebanese constitution. They should adhere to the state and its authority. The state is independent and it alone is responsible for protecting the nation and its sovereignty and its people and their security and stability. Third, the Israeli aggression is targeting the whole of Lebanon and all the Lebanese people. No one wants this attack and sees in it an opportunity to back their political position. So, efforts should be focused on supporting the state and allowing it to take control and assume responsibility, bringing together the people so that their sole concern would be saving Lebanon and helping it out of this dangerous crisis that is threatening their nation, their unity and their fate. Fourth, the Security Council must issue a resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. It must assume its responsibilities in preserving international peace and security through obligating all parties to fully and immediately implement resolution 1701 and respect all relevant resolutions. Fifth, Speaker Berri must call parliament to convene to discuss the dangers that are looming around the Lebanese state and people. The parliament must ensure the preservation of the Lebanese entity, respect the constitution, and preserve Lebanon’s unity and territorial integrity. Berri must call for the election of a new president without delay.
The president must be able to unite all the people and form a responsible government that would assume the responsibility in implementing resolution 1701 in full. It must work on reviving the state and restoring its sovereignty. It must bolster the role of the Lebanese state in maintaining the country’s independence and freedom.

With Hospitals Full in Lebanon, Family Flees to Give Birth in Iraq

Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Lubana Ismail had just fled her village in southern Lebanon with her husband and two children when she went into labor. She had swollen veins in her uterus and needed immediate medical supervision to give birth safely. They searched for a hospital in Beirut or Sidon that would admit her, but all were full of the dead and wounded. "No hospital accepted me. We were turned away everywhere until my father suggested we go to Iraq," she recounted. So they boarded a flight and flew to Najaf. It was there, in a former war zone 1,000 km (600 miles) from home, that Lubana finally gave birth to baby Zahraa, healthy and safe. The proud father, Fouad Youssef, recounted the perils of their evacuation. "At first, we went to Tyre, but a strike hit directly next to us. We decided to go to Beirut, thinking it would be safer, but even on the way, a strike hit near us,” he said. "During our two days of displacement, I tried to get my wife into a hospital because her labor was difficult. But due to the high number of injuries and martyrs, there were no vacancies."More than a million Lebanese have fled their homes since Israel intensified its airstrikes and launched a ground campaign in southern Lebanon against the Hezbollah movement which has been striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians. Imran Riza, UN humanitarian coordinator, said the pace of displacement since Sept. 23 had exceeded worst case scenarios, and too much damage was being done to civilian infrastructure.
Najaf is accustomed to handling the emergency medical needs of foreigners, and Iraqis have endured almost two decades of war at home. But receiving refugees from Lebanon is unexpected. Iraq's interior ministry says around 5,700 Lebanese have arrived so far. Lubana and Fouad are grateful to have found a safe place to bring their family and give birth to their daughter. But they have no idea what will come next. "We are afraid the war will go on for a long time. What will happen to our children? We were preparing them for school, but now there is no education. Are we going to stay here? Are we leaving? Are we going back to our country?" pondered Youssef, watching news of the destruction in Lebanon on his mobile screen.

Lebanese Fishermen Stay Ashore after Israeli Warning

Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Piles of fishing nets lay on land unused in the southern Lebanese port of Sidon on Tuesday as fishermen stayed ashore after the Israeli military warned of strikes against fighters along the coast. Commercial vessels and leisure boats were anchored in the harbor, while the city's ancient fish market fell unusually quiet, with traders trying to peddle the catch from earlier in the week. "The Lebanese army told us we weren't allowed to go out, and we're respecting that," said Mohammed Bidawi, a member of the local fishermen's union. "If it continues like this, the market will close too." After nearly a year of cross-border clashes, Israel intensified its bombing campaign in Lebanon on September 23, killing more than 1,100 people and displacing over a million from their homes, according to official figures. The Israeli army warned late Monday that it would expand its operations against Lebanese armed group Hezbollah to Lebanon's coast.
It warned people to stay away from the shore in the area south of the Al-Awali river, which flows into the sea to the north of Sidon. Issam Haboush, another fisherman, said he was worried about his family. "Fishing is the way we support our children. If we don't go out to sea, we won't be able to feed ourselves," he said, adding that hundreds of families depended on the trade. Bidawi said the de facto ban on fishing in Sidon had plunged around "5,000 to 6,000 people" into difficulty, the latest blow after a huge financial crisis in the country since 2019.
"The fishermen and traders at the fish market are going to need help," he said. Before the war, Lebanon's fleet of 3,000 fishing boats reaped in between 3,000 and 3,500 tons of fish each year, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said in 2021. Fisherman Hamza Sonbol said he and his colleagues had become destitute overnight. "We've become like the country's displaced," he said.
'Upsetting'
Freediving instructor Marwan Hariri, 47, also has a boat in the port to take students out on for lessons. "Since yesterday I've been feeling very down," he said. He had already lost 70 percent of his students in the past year of border clashes, as they largely came from southern areas under heavy Israeli bombardment, he said. "I haven't even been opening the diving center. I've just been going down to the sea to go spearfishing," he said. Despite the financial crisis and the tensions in the south, he was still enjoying diving with his speargun which he said was a way to temporarily escape from the news.
On Monday, he put his catch up for auction among acquaintances and managed to sell it for $56. Then the Israeli military issued its warning. Despite the perfect weather conditions on Monday morning, when he went down to the beach, he saw no fishermen coming back on their boats.
"It was really upsetting," he said. Sixth, efforts must be exerted with all Arab brothers and the Arab League, as well as all friendly countries and institutions, to offer the necessary and immediate aid to the displaced. The safe return of the displaced must be ensured and the necessary funds for reconstruction must be secured. This new plight has demonstrated that Lebanon has not learned from the lessons of 2006. It has become exposed in every aspect before the Israeli enemy, which has taken advantage of its superior firepower, air force, technology, intelligence and unlimited support from the international community to kill and destroy. The enemy is still hoping to sow division and strife between the Lebanese people. God willing, this will not happen. The enemy has not shied away from committing massacres and assassinations, the last of which was the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Today, the whole of Lebanon is facing a test. Will the UN and Security Council champion what is right? Will the Lebanese people rally together to defend Lebanon and their right for a dignified and safe life, and teach Israel a lesson in rights, humanity and respect for human rights?
*Fuad Siniora is a Lebanese former prime minister.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 08-09/2024
Netanyahu Says Israel ‘Will Continue to Fight’ Its Enemies
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel “will continue to fight” against its enemies. Netanyahu delivered a recorded message late Monday to a government memorial service marking the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Israel responded to the attacks with a military offensive that has devastated Gaza and inflicted heavy losses on the Hamas militant group. US-led ceasefire efforts have repeatedly faltered, and Israel has now turned its focus to a ground offensive in Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah party. “As long as the enemy threatens our existence and the peace of our country, we will continue to fight,” Netanyahu said. “As long as our hostages are in Gaza, we will continue to fight. We will not give up on any of them. I won’t give up.” The government ceremony was prerecorded, and Netanyahu did not attend. Families of people killed in the Oct. 7 attack, hostages and soldiers who died fighting Hamas held a separate ceremony earlier Monday, skipping the official ceremony in a show of anger against the government.

Israeli Strike Targets Residential Building in Syria’s Damascus, Say State Media
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
An Israeli strike targeted a residential building in the Mezzah suburb west of the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria's state news agency reported on Tuesday. Preliminary reports indicated that the strike had resulted in injuries among civilians, Syrian state media reported. State media earlier reported that Syria's air defenses had intercepted "hostile" targets in the vicinity of Damascus. Israel has been carrying out strikes against Iran-linked targets in Syria for years but has ramped up such raids since last year's Oct. 7 attack by Palestinian group Hamas on Israeli territory that sparked the Gaza war.

Israel's strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support
Ellen Knickmeyer/WASHINGTON (AP)/October 8, 2024
Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran's armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.
In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel's offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush Hamas in Gaza.
Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran's government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington's conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.
Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct attacks in Iran. That would send "the right message to the Iranians — ‘Don’t mess with us,’'' Guzansky said.
Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein, when President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region's indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for what comes next, and warn of unintended consequences.
Ultimately, Israel “will be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,” said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving limited weight to Biden administration calls for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.
“It's as if we hadn't learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment ... in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,” said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Advocates of Israel’s campaign hope for the weakening of Iran and its armed proxies that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are teaming up with Russia and other Western adversaries.
Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing cycles of war, insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.
And there’s the threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons to try to ensure its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about Israel’s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.
In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have devastated the leadership, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah — which had been one of the Middle East’s most powerful fighting forces and Iran's overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory — and hit oil infrastructure of Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis.
A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group's attack on Israel, which started the war. Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden — and decades of previous administrations — worked to avert.
The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have defended the surge in attacks, while still pressing for peace. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS' “60 Minutes” aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.
“We’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders,” she said. Israel’s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran’s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and North Korea.
Called the “Axis of Resistance," Iran's military alliances grew — regionally, then globally — after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran's ambitious clerical regime.
Advocates of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and overthrow of Saddam, said correctly that an Iraqi democracy would take hold.
But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger, including the rise of Iran's Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including the Islamic State.
“An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.
“Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence” after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.
Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that Israel’s military is putting in motion will end — for Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.
Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by Israel, Nasr said.
The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.
After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders, “the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing — is bound to change — the strategic landscape in the Middle East,” he said.
“We are certainly at the precipice of change," Kamrava said. But “the direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage."

As Israel plots to strike Iran, its choices range from symbolic to severe
Josef Federman/The Associated Press/October 8, 2024
JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel has promised to retaliate for Iran’s massive missile attack last week. How it does so involves great risk, and could have major repercussions for the archenemies, the Middle East and the world. Israel's options range from symbolic strikes on military targets to crippling attacks on Iran's vital oil industry or its secretive and heavily fortified nuclear program.
The intensity and timing of any retaliatory strike was expected to top the agenda of a planned meeting this week at the Pentagon between Israel’s defense minister and his U.S. counterpart. But late Tuesday, the Pentagon said the meeting was abruptly postponed. In a sign of possible disagreement over the right approach, President Joe Biden has already urged Israel not to hit Iran's nuclear program and discouraged it from hitting the oil industry. The Associated Press spoke to two former Israeli prime ministers and other experts to explore Israel’s options. There is broad consensus that Israel must strike back, but deep disagreement over the best way to do so.
“The question is not whether Israel will retaliate or respond,” former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told AP. “The question is which way.”
Why is Israel threatening Iran?
Israel and Iran have been involved in a bitter shadow war for years — primarily through Israel’s battles against Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. Israel also has been suspected of killing Iranian nuclear scientists and carrying out attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, but it rarely acknowledges involvement. Direct clashes have been rare. But things changed after Hamas attacked Israel from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, and Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel the following day. Both groups receive support from Iran. In April, Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles toward Israel after accusing it of killing two Iranian generals in a diplomatic compound in Syria. Nearly all of the missiles malfunctioned or were intercepted, and Israel responded with a limited strike that signaled it did not want any further escalation. After last week’s Iranian attack, Israel signaled its next response would be different. Iran said the barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles was to avenge a series of Israeli strikes against its close allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s longtime leader. Although the missiles caused little damage or casualties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a “big mistake and it will pay for it.” Members of his hard-line coalition have called for a harsh response.
What options does Israel have?
Israel has a broad range of choices of targets – from Iranian government buildings and military bases to sensitive oil installations to heavily fortified nuclear facilities hidden deep below ground. Israel accuses Iran of developing nuclear weapons — a charge Iran denies. Striking anywhere in Iran is a logistical challenge for Israel. Warplanes would need to fly over 1,500 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) to their target, requiring a complicated midair refueling operation, potentially over hostile skies. Any strike would also mean confronting Iran’s Russian-made air-defense systems.
“Remember that Iran is 1,500, 1,600 kilometers (about 1,000 miles) away from Israel, and you have countries in between — Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. Some are friends. Some are foes,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a former adviser on Iranian affairs on Israel's National Security Council. “You don’t want to embarrass your friends. You don’t want to get hostile fire from other countries,” he said.
Olmert, who served as prime minister from 2006 to 2009, said Israel is more than capable of coping with these challenges. “We have the capabilities,” he said. “I’m not certain it would be wise and responsible to expose them.” Even if Israel has the means, there are diplomatic considerations. A strike on the oil sector, Iran’s economic backbone, or on the nuclear program would almost certainly guarantee an Iranian response and raise the risk of further escalation. Such strikes could rattle global oil markets and shake the U.S. economy on the eve of a presidential election. They also could risk Iranian retaliation not only against Israel, but against American troops stationed in the region or Gulf Arab countries aligned with the West. “Unlike Lebanon and Gaza, every Israeli attack on Iran has international and global repercussions,” said Menahem Merhavy, an Iran expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
So how will Israel respond?
Former leaders are divided on what path Israel should choose. Olmert said a strike on multiple military targets, spread across Iran’s vast territory, would be more than enough to send a message. The goal, he said, is to show that Israel can strike anywhere and anytime. “That’s precisely what deterrence is all about,” he said. Olmert said hitting Iran’s oil sector would be an unnecessary escalation that invites a response, and that striking the nuclear program is not worth the risk. Not only would it trigger Iranian retaliation, but the odds of success are uncertain, he said.
“Trying to attack the nuclear program will be a mistake,” he said. Another former prime minister, Yair Lapid, believes Israel should strike Iran’s oil industry infrastructure. “That is the most painful target for the Iranian regime,” Lapid, who served as premier in 2022, said in a written response to a question from The Associated Press. “Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel must be met with a forceful response,” he said, adding that Iran must understand “there is a high cost to its regional aggression.” In an interview with the Israeli news site Ynet, Lapid said a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities should only be done as part of an international coalition in coordination with the United States. Lapid’s predecessor as prime minister and former governing partner, Naftali Bennett, takes an even tougher line, saying now is the time for Israel to bomb the Iranian nuclear project. Bennett said in a video posted on social media Tuesday that Iran and its allies have been weakened, and that Israel has a rare chance to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s leadership, economy and nuclear program. “We must not settle for Iranian military bases or noisy-yet-meaningless actions that are meant only to deliver a message,” Bennett said. “The time for messages is over.” Olmert, however, said he hopes cooler heads will prevail. “What do we want to achieve and how far do we want to go and how arrogant do we want to be?” he said. His advice: “Try to be smart.”

Israel may have military superiority, but it lacks a clear strategic vision, say experts
Thibault Spirlet,Hannah Abraham/Business Insider/October 8, 2024
Israel now waging war on three battle fronts — Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and  back up to restore default view. Israel is fighting a multi-front war that includes Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Syria. Experts told BI that Israel still lacks a long-term strategic vision on how to end the war. Israel may have fallen into what one expert described as an "escalatory trap."One year after Hamas' October 7 massacre, Israel has become embroiled in a multi-front war that includes Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Syria. But while Israel may have military superiority in the region, it lacks a clear, long-term strategic vision to end conflict in the Middle East, according to security experts. On Tuesday, it said it was expanding its ground operation in Lebanon by adding a fourth division of soldiers. Meanwhile, it has intensified its air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon, including this week hitting Hezbollah intelligence targets and a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the area of Beirut. It is also weighing up a strike on Iran in response to a ballistic missile attack last week. Targets could include nuclear sites, oil facilities, and military bases. It's clear the Israel Defense Forces have achieved a series of tactical gains in recent weeks, but they still lack a clear military strategy, security analysts told Business Insider.Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said the longer Israel's military operations continue, the more "urgent" it becomes for it to articulate how it envisions war to come to an end."There is a lack of strategic coherence on all sides in this multi-front conflict," she told BI.
Netanyahu's goals
In a video address on Monday, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is achieving its war goals a year after Hamas' terrorist attacks.He listed them as toppling Hamas' rule, bringing all the hostages home, eliminating any threat from Gaza to Israel, and returning all the residents of southern and northern Israel safely to their homes. However, Bashir Abbas, a fellow at the Stimson Center, told BI that Israel still has a way to go in pursuing national security.
"Even in Gaza, Israel has simply not articulated a long-term strategy for Israeli security at all, apart from wiping out Hamas — which would be virtually impossible to do fully given the nature of insurgent groups.""You cannot just bomb Hamas into oblivion and destroy it," concurred Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding NGO. While he said Israel could degrade Hamas' capabilities, at the end of it, "how will Israel live side by side with 7 million Palestinians going forward after all that they've done to it?" he asked. "There has to be underpinning it, a political agreement and strategy— that means an agreed cease-fire," he said.Doyle made the same point for the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia group. "Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982, the consequences of which were the establishment of Hezbollah 42 years later," he said. "They're not just fighting Hezbollah, but they're fighting an organization that is now a state within a state with a huge arsenal of missiles of all sorts of types," he added.
An 'escalatory trap'
Anthony Pfaff, the director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, said in August that Israel may be stuck in what he termed the "escalatory trap." "If Israel escalates," wrote Pfaff, "it fuels the escalatory spiral that could, at some point, exceed its military capability to manage."However, if it chooses the status quo, it will have done little to improve its security situation. "Neither outcome achieves Israel's security objectives, which would represent a defeat for the IDF and could threaten the survival of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government," Pfaff said. The problem may be that Israel's security doctrine has long been based on short wars. As the Guardian points out, the opposite has now taken place. None of the IDF's operations "comes as part of a clear strategy with achievable aims that will, in the end, bring greater ability and peace to Israel, to Israeli civilians," said Doyle of the Council for Arab British Understanding NGO. Instead, he said it "escalates the conflict, but without any clear sense that there is an exit." The increasingly drawn-out conflict has triggered fears of full-blown war in the Middle East, which could spark inflation and lead to a global economic downturn.
Last week, Moody's Israel lowered Israel's credit rating, citing heightened tensions, economic uncertainty, and the potential for escalation into a full-scale conflict. Prior to Israel's incursions into Lebanon last month, Israel's finance minister described the war as the "longest" and "most expensive" conflict in Israel's history, with about $54 billion to $68 billion in "direct" costs. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, per CNN.
Will the election change things?
Netanyahu's stance toward a peace deal may hinge on who wins the US presidential elections in November, said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project. While former president Donald Trump would give Netanyahu "carte blanche" to do everything on his own terms, Vice President Kamala Harris would push for a "constructive attitude to ceasefires and peace processes," he said. "I think we're a lot closer to the beginning of this conflict than we are to the end," former CIA station chief Daniel Hoffman told Fox Business on Monday. "There's going to be a new administration, and that will have a lot of implications on our strategy."

Heavy fighting in Gaza's Jabalia as Israel conducts new ground operation
David Gritten - BBC News/October 8, 2024
Residents say there has been heavy fighting in Jabalia in northern Gaza, where Israeli tanks and troops are conducting a new ground operation. The Israeli military said it had killed 20 “terrorists” there over the past day, and that one of its soldiers had also been killed in the north. Hamas said its fighters had targeted Israeli forces in Jabalia and its refugee camp, while the Hamas-run civil defence agency said Israeli strikes had killed 19 people. Civilians in Jabalia and nearby Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia have been told to evacuate south by the military, which said on Sunday that intelligence indicated Hamas was trying to “rebuild its operational capabilities” in the region. It warned that the operation would involve “systematic strikes and the radical destruction of terrorist structures”. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry said on Tuesday evening that Israeli forces were besieging the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia and that it would run out of fuel within hours. It also said patients and medical personnel had been asked to evacuate the hospital, as well as the nearby Indonesian and al-Awda hospitals. Israeli forces launched a campaign in Gaza to destroy Hamas in response to the group's unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken as hostages. More than 41,960 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's health ministry. Analysis: Year of killing and broken assumptions has taken Middle East to edge of deeper, wider war .This is the third time Israeli forces have gone into Jabalia and its refugee camp over the past year, with the last operation in May displacing tens of thousands of people, killing hundreds and causing widespread destruction. On Monday, Jabalia resident Asmaa Tayeh told the BBC that she and her family had had to leave their home for the fourth time in a year. They have returned to her grandparents’ house in the al-Nasr district of Gaza City and, like many civilians in the north, are reluctant to move south, fearing that if they do they will not ever make it home. Despite Israeli assurances, Palestinians fear the military is planning to implement a plan, proposed by the former head of Israel’s national security council, to completely empty northern Gaza of the 300,000 to 500,000 civilians believed to be living there. According to Giora Eiland’s plan, the north would then be declared a “closed military zone” and the estimated 5,000 Hamas fighters there would be put under siege in order to force the group to release the remaining Israeli hostages. “The situation is getting so dangerous that we don’t have so much hope that we’ll go back,” Asmaa said. The Israeli military also ordered civilians in parts of the southern city of Khan Younis to evacuate after Hamas fired rockets towards Israel from there on Monday, lightly wounding two women in Kfar Chabad in central Israel. In central Gaza, the civil defence agency said 17 people, including children, were killed when a three-storey home in Bureij refugee camp was hit in an Israeli strike overnight.
Medics at a hospital in nearby Nuseirat refugee camp confirmed the death toll, according to AFP news agency. The Israeli military said it was targeting Hamas operatives in the camp and that it “conducted a precise strike on a structure from which a terrorist cell planned terror activities”.
Additional reporting by the BBC Diplomatic Correspondent Paul Adams in London

A year after Oct. 7, Hamas faces dissent in Gaza as war takes toll
Reuters/Tue, October 8, 2024
CAIRO/RAMALLAH - Samira, a mother of two, yearns for her old life when she was an Arabic teacher and had a comfortable home - before the attack by Hamas on Israel a year ago plunged Gaza into suffering and chaos. She has joined a growing number of Gazans asking whether they have paid too high a price for Hamas' assault on Oct. 7 last year. The Israeli offensive that followed has flattened Gaza, killed tens of thousands, and driven more than a million Palestinians from their homes. “Despite all the hardships, our life was going well. We had jobs, houses and a city,” said Samira, 52, who declined to give her family name for fear of retaliation. Samira describes Israel as “our prime enemy…the source of all our ills” but she also blames Hamas' leader Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks, for what she sees as a huge miscalculation. "What was he thinking? Didn't he expect that Israel would destroy Gaza?" she said. Reuters spoke to dozens of residents of Gaza, all of whom asked not to be identified by their full name to avoid retribution. For some, Hamas are heroes for the Oct. 7 attack, when Palestinian militants mounted an unprecedented raid into Israel, something they'd never thought they'd see.
But several said that the Iranian-backed militant group – which has ruled Gaza since 2007 – had given little thought to their suffering, and some suggested the attack had been a terrible mistake.
Sinwar, 62, has not been seen publicly since the Oct. 7 raid, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 251, including women and children, according to Israeli tallies. He has run Hamas from the shadows of a network of labyrinthine tunnels under Gaza and, according to people in contact with him, remains convinced that armed struggle is the only way to force the creation of a Palestinian state.
Hamas says the Oct. 7 attack – the deadliest in Israel's 75-year history – marked a turning point in the decades-long struggle for Palestinian nationhood, which had drifted off the international agenda. Officials say the group is winning the battle against Israel, which has failed to achieve its war aims of destroying Hamas as a fighting force, eliminating its leaders or retrieving their hostages.
Yet about 42,000 Palestinians have died been killed in Israel’s offensive, according to tallies from Gazan health authorities, and hunger stalks displacement camps where more than a million people have sought shelter. An opinion poll published in mid-September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), a think tank based in Ramallah and funded by Western donors, showed for the first time the majority of Gazans opposed the decision to attack. The poll, conducted in early September, found that 57% of people surveyed in the Gaza Strip said the decision to launch the offensive was incorrect, while just 39% said it was correct – down sharply from the previous poll in June. Hamas has long been accused of crushing dissent in Gaza with beatings or worse. But recent months have seen some rare public displays of dissent.
Former Hamas official Ahmed Youssef Saleh took to Facebook in July to ask whether anybody in Hamas “studied and thought of the consequences” before launching an attack that invited Israel’s uncompromising invasion. Saleh’s post has since drawn hundreds of comments, many adding their own criticism of the Islamist group. Saleh, who continues to post regularly, did not respond to requests for comment.
In July, Palestinian activist Ameen Abed, who had criticized the Oct. 7 attack, was beaten by masked men and hospitalized. His father walked through the streets of Gaza's Jabalia refugee camp using a loudspeaker to accuse Hamas of the attack. Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official, dismissed such criticism of the group as "limited remarks". "Those remarks result from the pain and nothing more," he told Reuters, adding that the spirit of the Palestinian people was far from breaking. “We had no choice but to launch this major battle, regardless of the cost, because the Palestinian cause was about to end amid the growing aggression and the Israeli crimes against our people and our sacred sites," he said. Signs of dissent matter to Hamas, which aims to maintain its sway in Gaza once the war ends, despite the insistence of Israel and the United States that it can play no part in governing the enclave after the war. Ashraf Abouelhoul, managing editor of the Egyptian state-owned paper Al-Ahram and a specialist on Palestinian issues, said the nature of any role for Hamas in a post-war Gaza would depend on how the conflict ended."Inside Gaza, the situation will be different and when people realize that Gaza has become unliveable, the support for Hamas will become less," he said. However, he added that Iran could demand a future role for the militant group as part of a settlement of a broader regional conflict.
ACT OF DEFIANCE
Palestinians blame Israel for their economic miseries, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, and for blocking their political aspirations for a Palestinian state with the occupied East Jerusalem as its capital. Many see the Oct. 7 attack as a response to decades-long Israeli occupation and not a response to specific Israeli offensive or policies. Mahmoud, 29, a resident of Gaza City now displaced in the Zawayda area in the centre of the Gaza Strip, criticized the United Nations and Western powers for allowing Israel to ignore repeated calls for the creation of a Palestinian state. He said the attack had put the neglected issue at the centre of the international agenda. "The whole world was awakened by Oct. 7: they realized that there were people still under occupation; people who will not settle before the Israeli occupation is ended," said Mahmoud, who asked not to be identified by his full name.
Many advocates of a two-state solution, however, recognize that in the wake of Oct. 7, the possibility seems as remote as ever, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government staunchly rejecting the idea and escalating the tempo of settlement construction in the West Bank. The PSR opinion poll, published on Sept. 17, showed that the proportion of Gazans who said they want Hamas to run a post-war Gaza had dropped to 36%, from 46% in its June poll. "For the first time, we see more Gazans wanting the PA, not Hamas, to control Gaza after the war. This is probably the most decisive indicator," Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, told Reuters, referring to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority led by President Mahmoud Abbas. Even in the West Bank, where support for Hamas remained stronger, support for the attack has declined, the poll showed, though almost two-thirds of respondents there still thought it was the correct decision. PSR said it surveyed 1,200 people face-to-face, 790 of them in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza, with a 3.5% margin of error.
In August, the Israeli military accused Hamas of mounting an effort to falsify the results of PSR polls to show false support for Hamas and Oct. 7, though the military said there was no evidence of PSR cooperating with Hamas. PSR said it had investigated the allegation but found no proof of data being manipulated. Abouelhoul, the Egyptian newspaper editor, said it would be very hard to measure the popularity of Hamas in Gaza comprehensively until the war was over. He said the Palestinian Authority, controlled by Hamas’ rival party Fatah, needed to reform itself if it were to play a role in post-war Gaza. "What is important is that Palestinians must agree on a new government, with new faces, that will be tasked with administering people's affairs and reconstructing Gaza," he said.

Pro-Palestinian activists target UK offices of Germany's Allianz

Reuters/October 8, 2024
Pro-Palestinian activists targeted the British offices of German financial services firm Allianz on Tuesday, daubing the outside with red paint in protest over the company's links to Israeli defence firm Elbit Systems. Palestine Action claimed responsibility for the protest on social media platform X, and said demonstrators had attacked 10 Allianz offices in the UK and "occupied" the insurer's UK headquarters in Guildford, south of London, overnight. "Without insurance, Elbit couldn't operate in Britain," Palestine Action said in its post, describing Allianz as "investors and insurers of Israel's biggest weapons firm".
UK-based spokespeople for Allianz, one of Europe's biggest financial services groups, did not respond to a request for comment. Police said officers were called at 4 a.m. (0300 GMT) to reports of red paint being sprayed onto two buildings in London's City financial district. They arrested a 19-year-old man on suspicion of criminal damage following a foot chase. Authorities also cordoned off Allianz Commercial's office in the City after the vandalism, which coincides with the first anniversary of the start of the Gaza war, triggered by Palestinian militant group Hamas' attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages to Gaza on Oct. 7 last year, according to Israeli figures. Nearly 42,000 people have been killed in retaliatory attacks on Gaza since, Palestinian health authorities say, and most of the 2.3-million population has been displaced. Besides urging customers to boycott certain financial firms, demonstrators have expanded protests to include defacing buildings using red paint to symbolise the bloodshed in Gaza. Allianz is the latest global financial firm to have suffered such vandalism, with British lender Barclays also a frequent target for pro-Palestinian protesters. They have also repeatedly targeted Elbit Systems UK and other defence firms in Britain linked to Israel. In August, seven people were charged with burglary and violent disorder at a warehouse linked to Elbit near Bristol, southwest England.

UN Chief Tells Israel That Draft Law Blocking Aid Agency UNRWA Would Be ‘Catastrophe
Asharq Al Awsat/October 08/2024
Draft Israeli legislation that would stop the UN Palestinian refugee agency working in the Gaza Strip and West Bank would be a "catastrophe" if enacted, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday, adding he raised his concerns with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Such a measure would suffocate efforts to ease human suffering and tensions in Gaza, and indeed, the entire Occupied Palestinian Territory. It would be a catastrophe in what is already an unmitigated disaster," he told reporters. The Israeli parliament in July gave preliminary approval to a bill that would declare UNRWA a terrorist organization. Israeli leaders have accused UNRWA staff of collaborating with Hamas fighters in Gaza. In response to Guterres' remarks, Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon told Reuters: "Israel works with humanitarian agencies that are actually interested in humanitarian aid and not activism or, in some cases, terrorism."The UN said in August that nine UNRWA staff may have been involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and had been fired. Then a Hamas commander in Lebanon - killed last month in an Israeli strike - was found to have had an UNRWA job. UNRWA provides education, health and aid to millions of Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. It has long had tense relations with Israel, but ties have deteriorated sharply since the start of the war in Gaza and Israel has called repeatedly for UNRWA to be disbanded. Guterres spoke to reporters a day after the one year anniversary of the shock Hamas rampage in Israel, during which some 1,200 people were killed and about 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli figures. More than 100 hostages remain held in Gaza by the Palestinian militant group. The Hamas attack triggered Israel's retaliation in Gaza, sparking a humanitarian crisis in the besieged enclave where authorities say more than 41,000 people have been killed. "There is something fundamentally wrong in the way this war is being conducted," Guterres said on Tuesday. "Ordering civilians to evacuate does not keep them safe if they have no safe place to go and no shelter, food, medicine or water."The conflict in Gaza has raised fears of all-out regional war, pitting Israel against Iran and the armed groups that it backs, including Lebanon's Hezbollah. Israel's military on Tuesday deployed more troops into south Lebanon, signaling an expanding ground offensive against Hezbollah. Guterres appealed to Israel and Hezbollah to respect the safety and security of UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. He said that Israeli forces operating adjacent to a UNIFIL position - staffed by Irish peacekeepers - had left after he complained on Monday "to different entities." A UN official later said Guterres had communicated with the United States.

Iran foreign minister to visit Saudi Arabia, regional countries
Reuters/October 8, 2024
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will visit Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region starting on Tuesday to discuss regional issues and work on stopping Israel's "crimes" in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran's state media reported. Gulf Arab states - most of them major energy exporters like Iran - have sought to reassure Tehran of their neutrality in the Iran-Israel conflict, sources told Reuters last week. "Our dialogue continues in regards to the developments in the region to prevent the shameless crimes of the Zionist regime (Israel) in Lebanon in continuation of the crimes in Gaza," Araqchi said in a video carried by state media. "Starting today I'll start a trip to the region, to Riyadh and other capitals in the region and we will strive to have a collective movement from the countries of the region... to stop the brutal attacks in Lebanon", Araqchi added.
Ministers from Gulf Arab states and Iran attending a meeting of Asian nations hosted by Qatar centred their conversations around de-escalation, sources told Reuters on Thursday. A meeting between Iran and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council has been held in an unofficial way, our relations have always had ups and downs, but there is a will that these relations leads to regional cooperation, Araqchi said. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has had a political rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, which has helped ease regional tensions, but relations remain difficult.

Iran warns Israel against any attack, threatens stronger retaliation
Reuters/October 8, 2024
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran's foreign minister warned Israel against launching an attack, saying on Tuesday any strike on Iranian infrastructure would be met with a stronger retaliation. Iran attacked Israel last week with a salvo of missiles. Israel has vowed to retaliate. "We recommend the Zionist regime (Israel) not to test the resolution of the Islamic Republic. If any attack against our country takes place, our response will be more powerful," Araqchi said in a televised speech. Any attack on Iran's infrastructure will be met with a stronger retaliation, and "our enemies know what kind of targets inside the Zionist Regime (Israel) are in our reach," Araqchi added. Iran's oil minister landed on Kharg Island, home to the country's main export terminal, and held talks with a naval commander on Sunday, the oil ministry's news website Shana reported, amid concern Israel could attack energy facilities. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday that he did not think Israel had yet decided how to respond.

US targets Hamas with sanctions on anniversary of Gaza war
Daphne Psaledakis/Reuters/October 7, 2024
The United States on Monday imposed sanctions on an international Hamas fundraising network, accusing it of playing a critical role in external fundraising for the Palestinian militant group, in action marking the first anniversary of the Gaza war. The U.S. Treasury Department in a statement said it imposed sanctions on three people and what it called a "sham charity" that it accused of being prominent international financial supporters of Hamas, as well as on the Al-Intaj Bank in Gaza that it said was controlled by the group. Also targeted was a longstanding Hamas supporter, a Yemeni national living in Turkey, and nine of his businesses, Treasury said. “As we mark one year since Hamas’s brutal terrorist attack, Treasury will continue relentlessly degrading the ability of Hamas and other destabilizing Iranian proxies to finance their operations and carry out additional violent acts,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in the statement.
“The Treasury Department will use all available tools at our disposal to hold Hamas and its enablers accountable, including those who seek to exploit the situation to secure additional sources of revenue.”In their rampage through Israeli towns and kibbutz villages near the Gaza border a year ago, Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli figures. The huge Israeli security lapse led to the single deadliest day for Jews since the Nazi Holocaust, shattered many citizens' sense of security and sent their faith in its leaders to new lows. The Hamas assault unleashed an Israeli offensive on Gaza that has largely flattened the densely populated enclave and killed almost 42,000 people, Palestinian health authorities say. The Treasury on Monday said that: "Hamas has exploited the suffering in Gaza to solicit funds through sham and front charities that falsely claim to help civilians in Gaza," adding that as of early this year, the group may have received as much as $10 million a month through such donations. The Treasury said Hamas considers Europe to be a key source of fundraising. Monday's action targeted an Italy-based Hamas member the Treasury said established the sham Charity Association of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, which it accused of helping bankroll Hamas' military wing. Also targeted was a senior Hamas representative in Germany and a Hamas representative in charge of the group's activity in Austria.

Palestinians evacuating northern Gaza say they are being shot at by Israeli military
Abeer Salman, Kareem Khadder and Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN/October 8, 2024
Palestinians fleeing sites of Israel’s renewed military operation in northern Gaza are being shot at as they evacuate, according to residents there and footage shared with CNN documenting their journey. Mohammad Sultan, 28, said he and his family fled their house in Jabalya in northern Gaza “due to the intense and continuous bombardments in the area.” When he went back to retrieve food, water and blankets, he and other civilians were fired at, he said. “Drones were firing at everyone passing by on the road,” Sultan told CNN. “Three people were shot right in front of me. My brother and I tried to help the injured get to the hospitals, but a little girl was shot in the neck, and her father was also injured.” The shooting took place at Abu Sharkh roundabout in Jabalya, according to Sultan. CNN has reached out to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for comment.
Footage taken by Sultan during his journey shows residents walking along a sandy road, surrounded by rubble and half-destroyed buildings. Some, including children, are on foot, struggling to walk with heavy bags. Others are on bicycles or tuk-tuks.
Drones can be heard buzzing in the background as the bullwhip-like sound of bullets piercing the air trigger screams and attempts to shelter. “They are hit, they are hit,” Sultan is heard shouting as he films civilians from a distance. An injured man, bleeding, limps toward him. Another girl is seen sitting in an ambulance, her neck wrapped in blood-soaked gauze that is seeping through the bandage. Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza City later identified her as 9-year-old Dana Nasser, and told CNN she must be admitted to surgery. Her father was shot in the leg, the hospital said.
The Israeli military on Monday issued fresh evacuation orders in both northern and southern Gaza, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been sheltering. In northern Gaza, the military said it is “currently operating with great force in the area” and told residents to move to Al Mawasi, a southern region designated as a so-called humanitarian zone that is already crammed with refugees. A day earlier, Israel’s military said it had encircled Jabalya as it launched a new ground operation there amid efforts by Hamas to “rebuild its operational capabilities in the area.”
Hamas’s military wing, Al-Qassam Brigades, said on Monday it was engaged in “fierce fights” with Israeli forces in northern Gaza. Flyers were dropped by the Israeli military over Jabalya Tuesday morning, “urgently” warning residents to “evacuate immediately,” residents told CNN. The renewed fighting comes on the first anniversary of the October 7 attacks by Hamas.
Gunfire at ‘anything that moves’
Hassan Hamad, a resident of Jabalya, was killed this week in his home in Jabalya, his aunt Itaf told CNN. She decided to stay in the city to collect his remains and give him a dignified burial. After months of documenting Israel’s offensive in Jabalya,18-year-old Hamad was killed when his family’s apartment was hit in an Israeli missile attack in the city’s refugee camp on Sunday, according to witness testimony and footage shared with CNN. Gunfire and shelling have stopped his aunt from leaving the house in search of her nephew’s remains, which were scattered around the area after the assault, she told CNN. “We stayed in the house to search for the remaining body parts of Hassan, but now we cannot go out due to the intensity of the shelling and gunfire,” the 58-year-old said, adding the gunfire targets “anything that moves.” Itaf spoke to CNN on the phone from her home in Jabalya, where shelling could be heard in the background. “We try to stay away from the windows, so they won’t shoot at us,” she said. Residents say the fighting in Jabalya has been some of the most intense in recent days. Mohammad Ibrahim, a resident of the city who decided to stay in his home with his two sons, said the explosions outside his house were so intense they “shook” his body. “I felt as though my body was tearing apart,” Ibrahim told CNN, adding that the firing is more intense than it was at the outset of the war. From his window, Ibrahim said he could see smoke billowing between abandoned apartment buildings. “Anyone who wants to leave the north to Gaza wants death,” he said. Jabalya has been targeted several times during the war, and like many other parts of Gaza, its residents say they don’t know where to go for shelter. “We are living in the Stone Age,” Ibrahim said. “There is no conscience, no humanity, no human rights.”

Gaza is in ruins after Israel's yearlong offensive. Rebuilding may take decades

JOSEPH KRAUSS and SARAH EL DEEB/Associated Press/ October 8/ 2024
There are hills of rubble where apartment blocks stood, and pools of sewage-tainted water spreading disease. City streets have been churned into dirt canyons and, in many places, the air is filled with the stench of unrecovered corpses. Israel’s yearlong offensive against Hamas, one of the deadliest and most destructive in recent history, has killed more than 41,000 people, a little over half of them women and children, according to local health officials. With no end in sight to the war and no plan for the day after, it is impossible to say when – or even if – anything will be rebuilt. Even after the fighting stops, hundreds of thousands of people could be stuck living in squalid tent camps for years. Experts say reconstruction could take decades. “This war is destruction and misery. It would make the stones cry out,” said Shifaa Hejjo, a 60-year-old housewife living in a tent pitched on land where her home once stood. “Whoever sees Gaza ... It will make them cry.”Israel blames the destruction on Hamas. Its Oct. 7 attack on Israel — in which some 1,200 people were killed and around 250 taken hostage — ignited the war. Israel says Hamas embedded much of its military infrastructure, including hundreds of kilometers (miles) of tunnels, in densely populated areas where some of the heaviest battles were fought. The fighting left roughly a quarter of all structures in Gaza destroyed or severely damaged, according to a U.N. assessment in September based on satellite videos. It said around 66% of structures, including more than 227,000 housing units, had sustained at least some damage. If there's a cease-fire, around half of all families “have nowhere to go back to,” said Alison Ely, a Gaza-based coordinator with the Shelter Cluster, an international coalition of aid providers led by the Norwegian Refugee Council.
The devastation in Gaza exceeds front-line towns in Ukraine. Almost as many buildings have been destroyed or damaged in Gaza as in all of Ukraine after its first two years of war with Russia, according to Corey Scher and Jamon Van Den Hoek, U.S.-based researchers who use satellite radar to document the wars' devastation.
To put that into perspective: Gaza is less than half the size of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. The amount of destruction in central and southern Gaza alone, Scher said, is roughly equivalent to what was lost in the front-line town of Bakhmut, the scene of one of the deadliest battles in the Ukraine war and where Russian forces destroyed nearly every building in their path to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw. The destruction in northern Gaza is even worse, he said. Gaza’s water and sanitation system has collapsed. More than 80% of its health facilities — and even more of its roads — are damaged or destroyed.
“I can’t think of any parallel, in terms of the severity of damage, for an enclave or a country or a people,” Scher said. At the end of January, the World Bank estimated $18.5 billion of damage — nearly the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022. That was before some intensely destructive Israeli ground operations, including in the southern border city of Rafah.
’I couldn’t tell where people’s homes were’
When Israeli ground forces pushed into the southern city of Khan Younis in January, Shifaa Hejjo and her family fled their four-story home with only the clothes they were wearing. They spent months in various tent camps before she decided to return – and the sight brought her to tears. Her entire neighborhood had been destroyed, her former home and the roads leading to it lost in a sea of rubble. “I didn’t recognize it,” she said. “I couldn’t tell where people’s homes were.” Around 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced by the war, often multiple times, according to U.N. estimates. Hundreds of thousands have crowded into sprawling tent camps near the coast with no electricity, running water or toilets. Hunger is widespread. Hejjo lived in a tent in the courtyard of a hospital. Before that, she was in Muwasi, the main tent camp in southern Gaza. “It smelled bad,” she said. “There were diseases spreading.”She said her husband, who was suffering from liver disease, was broken-hearted when he heard their home had been destroyed and he died shortly thereafter. She was among the first to return after Israeli forces withdrew in April. Her neighbors stayed away, fearful they would find bodies or unexploded bombs.
But for her it was still home.
“It is better to live in my home, where I lived for 37 years, even though it is destroyed,” she said. Hejjo and her children dug through the rubble with shovels and their bare hands, going brick by brick and saving whatever could be reused. Torn clothes were used to feed cooking fires.
Rats had crept in, and swarms of mosquitoes hovered over the ruins. There was broken glass everywhere. They set up a tent fortified by corrugated metal sheeting and some bricks salvaged from her destroyed home. A light drizzle wet their clothes as they slept.
U.N. agencies say unemployment has soared to around 80% — up from nearly 50% before the war — and that almost the entire population is living in poverty. Even those with means would find it nearly impossible to import construction materials because of Israeli restrictions, ongoing fighting and the breakdown of law and order.
There are mountains of rubble, little water and no electricity
The first obstacle to any significant rebuilding is the rubble – mountains of it.
Where houses, shops and office buildings once stood, there are now giant drifts of rubble laced with human remains, hazardous substances and unexploded munitions. The U.N. estimates the war has left some 40 million tons of debris and rubble in Gaza, enough to fill New York’s Central Park to a depth of eight meters (about 25 feet). It could take up to 15 years and nearly $650 million to clear it all away, it said. There’s also the question of where to dispose of it: The U.N. estimates about five square kilometers (about two square miles) of land would be needed, which will be hard to come by in the small and densely populated territory. It isn’t just homes that were destroyed, but also critical infrastructure. The U.N. estimates nearly 70% of Gaza’s water and sanitation plants have been destroyed or damaged. That includes all five of the territory’s wastewater treatment facilities, plus desalination plants, sewage pumping stations, wells and reservoirs. The employees who once managed municipal water and waste systems have been displaced, and some killed. And fuel shortages have made it difficult to keep operating facilities that are still intact. The international charity Oxfam said it applied in December for a permit to bring in desalination units, and pipes to repair water infrastructure. It took three months for Israel to approve the shipment, but it still has not entered Gaza, Oxfam said. The destruction of sewage networks has left streets flooded with putrid water, hastening the spread of disease. There has been no central power in Gaza since the opening days of the war, when its sole power plant was forced to shut down for lack of fuel, and more than half of the territory's electrical grid has been destroyed, according to the World Bank.
Can Gaza be rebuilt?
Wealthy Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have said they are only willing to contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction as part of a postwar settlement that creates a path to a Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled that out, saying he won’t allow Hamas or even the Western-backed Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza. He has said Israel will maintain open-ended security control and delegate civilian affairs to local Palestinians. But none are known to have volunteered, and Hamas has threatened to kill anyone who aids the occupation. Rebuilding Gaza would also require the import of massive amounts of construction supplies and heavy equipment, which Israel is unlikely to allow as long as there’s a potential for Hamas to rebuild its militant infrastructure. In any case, Gaza has only a small number of crossings with limited capacity. The Israeli military body that coordinates civilian affairs in Gaza says it does not restrict the entry of civilian supplies and allows so-called dual-use items that could also be used for military purposes. Israel allowed some construction materials in before the war under what was known as the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism, but it was subject to heavy restrictions and delays. The Shelter Cluster estimates that it would take 40 years to rebuild all of Gaza’s destroyed homes under that setup. For now, aid providers are struggling just to bring in enough basic tents because of the limited number of trucks going into Gaza and the challenges of delivering aid. Efforts to bring in more robust temporary housing are still in the early stages, and no one has even tried to bring in construction materials, according to Ely. In September, the Shelter Cluster estimated 900,000 people were still in need of tents, bedding and other items to prepare for the region's typically cold and rainy winters.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on October 08-09/2024
How to End the War in Lebanon

Elie Aoun/October 08/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/135408/
It is possible to achieve a sustainable peace by implementing certain fundamental principles found in the constitutions of, and the treaties signed by, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.
Firstly, Article 152 of the Iranian Constitution states that “the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is based upon the rejection of all forms of domination, both the exertion of it and submission to it.” On this basis, Iran must renounce and abandon its exertion of its domination policy towards Lebanon – by disbanding Hizballah, removing all the missiles and weaponry that it has funneled into Lebanon, along with the withdrawal of its military and security personnel from the country. Iran should also abandon its “exertion of domination” in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, etc.
Iran’s Constitution claims that it “has cleansed itself of the dust and impurities” and “purged itself of foreign ideological influences.” In the same manner, we in Lebanon desire to cleanse the nation from the dust and impurities of Iran’s ideology.
Iran’s Constitution (Article 3(5)) calls for “the prevention of foreign influence.” In the same manner, we in Lebanon desire the prevention of Iranian influence.
Iran’s Constitution (Article 146) forbids “the establishment of any kind of foreign military base in Iran.” In the same manner, we in Lebanon forbid the establishment of any kind of Iranian military base in Lebanon through Hizballah.
If Iran’s objective is to revive the “Persian Empire,” the Iranian regime must remember that in the Treaty of Zuhab or Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin (May 17, 1639), the Persian Empire had irrevocably ceded Mesopotamia (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, etc.) to the Ottoman Empire. Lebanon is not part of the Persian Empire.
Secondly, the Defense and Security Agreement between Lebanon and Syria (May 22, 1991) states that both States shall take the necessary measures to prevent any activity or organization that may cause prejudice to the other country. Each State shall undertake not to give shelter for, facilitate the passage of, or provide protection for individuals and organizations operating against the security of the other state. Similar language is found in Article 3 of the so-called “Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation, and Coordination.”
Although we have some reservations on the Agreement and Treaty, the Syrian government should prohibit the passage (through its territory) of any Iranian weaponry or any militant groups or military personnel (Iranian or otherwise) into Lebanon. Furthermore, Syria must control (from its side of the border) all militant activities alongside the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Thirdly, the Israel-Lebanon Armistice Agreement (March 23, 1949) states that “No aggressive action by the armed forces - land, sea or air - of either Party shall be undertaken, planned, or threatened against the people or the armed forces of the other.” “The right of each Party to its security and freedom from fear of attack by the armed forces of the other shall be fully respected.”
Fourthly, the first line of the Lebanese constitution states that “Lebanon is a sovereign, free, and independent country.” All Lebanese have the obligation to safeguard that sovereignty, freedom (with responsibility), and independence. “Sovereignty” refers to a state's preeminent authority within its borders, the state's right to bar outsiders, and to determine its own relations with the rest of the world.
Based on statements made by Hizballah and Iranian officials, Hizballah was pronounced as “an extension of Iran in Lebanon.” As such, the group must be disbanded militarily (since it is a military tool of Iran) and must be disbanded politically (since its political agenda is to overthrow the Lebanese republic and render it into a dummy province of Iran).
Any Lebanese is free to pursue political activity. However, freedom comes with responsibility. No one is free to overthrow governmental institutions, transform the country into a battle-zone, and pursue strategies contrary to the well-being of the population.
Disbanding a militant group with foreign allegiance, such as Hizballah, is the bedrock of sovereignty. The leadership of that group has misled their followers and destroyed the nation. Iran should order Hizballah to disband, or whoever is left in that group must assume responsibility and take a unilateral decision to do so.All Lebanese must adhere to the principles that protect them – instead of following misguided policies that endanger the people. All parties (foreign and domestic) involved in Lebanese affairs must abandon short-term “interests” and pursue enforcement of long-term “principles” as the most efficient way to end the current war, prevent future wars, and secure a genuine peace.
Unfortunately, the current Lebanese political class is focused on “interests” and not equipped to constructively face the challenges. They must recognize this fact and immediately appoint to governmental positions qualified Lebanese to handle the situation.
The Lebanese are primarily responsible for what is taking place on their soil and must demand the implementation of defined principles. In the meantime time, the leadership of Hizballah, Amal Movement, and the Higher Shiite Council must assume responsibility for all the costs related to the humanitarian consequences of the war and acquire funding from whatever sources they deem appropriate, including their own, to financially support the Lebanese refugees throughout the country. Such leadership cannot pursue destructive policies for many decades and then place the effects of those policies on other communities to resolve them.

In Iran, war jitters fuel public support for developing nuclear weapons
Laura King, Omid Khazani/Los Angeles Times/October 8, 2024
As the world braces for another round of escalatory exchanges between Israel and Iran, some ordinary Iranians who had previously opposed any move by their government to develop nuclear weapons are having a change of heart. “I think we should go for it,” said Vafa Sharzad, a 33-year-old chemical engineer. Sharzad said she had always supported negotiations with Western governments over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and welcomed the landmark nuclear accord of nine years ago between Iran and several world powers, believing it would bring greater economic opportunity and an easing of international isolation. “But I have my doubts today,” she said.
Although the nuclear accord has been imperiled since then-President Trump withdrew from it in 2018, Iran’s government continues to insist it does not intend to develop nuclear arms. And many sanctions-weary Iranians have long been wary of any nuclear moves that would trigger further economic hardship. However, the most direct outbreak yet of hostilities with Israel is changing the thinking of some here. A year after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip, Israel has taken aim not only at Hamas, whose attack on southern Israel triggered that devastating conflict, but at Iran’s other regional proxies — Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Iran last week unleashed a barrage of missiles against Israel that it said was in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a series of other deadly strikes against the Iranian-backed group, which for months has been firing rockets into Israel.
Israel said its missile-defense system repelled most of the incoming projectiles, but nonetheless declared it would retaliate. The Biden administration, fearing an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or other major infrastructure, has sought to deescalate the confrontation.
The U.S. president was asked last week whether he would support Israel hitting Iran’s nuclear sites. “The answer is no,” Biden replied.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long contended that Iran, and its nuclear aspirations in particular, pose an existential threat to Israel. Since the onset of the current crisis, some Israeli political figures, inside and outside government, have called openly for the Israeli military to seize a chance to strike at Iran’s nuclear sites. “This is a one-time window of opportunity in which we have both the legitimacy and the ability to severely damage the Iranian regime and its nuclear program,” Naftali Bennett, a hawkish former prime minister, said in a video statement released Tuesday. Such talk has alarmed U.S. officials, who have reportedly urged Israel to avoid nuclear installations and assets in any counterstrike. That message is expected to be underscored on Wednesday, when Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meets in Washington with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd J. Austin III. With the threat of Israeli retaliation hanging over the country, the mood in Tehran and other major cities has been tense. Israel is widely believed to possess a stockpile of nuclear weapons, but has never made a formal acknowledgment.
Many Iranians, though, view Israel's own capabilities as a danger.
“Look, a country with a nuclear arsenal is … threatening to bomb our cities,” said a 55-year-old teacher in the capital who wanted to be identified only by his first name, Ahmad. Like others, he didn’t think Iran had much to lose by developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent. “We have already paid an extremely heavy price for our civilian nuclear programs — we are under enormous sanctions already,” he said. Experts said more hawkish views often come to the forefront at times of regional strife. “This is not the first time such sentiments are running high in Iran,” said Mojitaba Najafi, a Paris-based researcher and lecturer at Sorbonne University. Whenever security concerns spike, “such voices get louder and louder, and are not necessarily in support of the ruling establishment.”There is no reliable domestic polling within Iran on support for a civilian or military nuclear program, but newfound bullishness on nuclear weapons development would represent a historic shift — albeit one that had been in the making even before the current spike in tensions.
“Public opinion polls since the mid-2000s have consistently demonstrated that while Iranians favored a peaceful nuclear program, a majority of them opposed developing nuclear weapons,” Harvard scholar Peyman Asadzade wrote in a June paper for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
But he said a survey this past spring, in which he collaborated with the Toronto-based company IranPoll, “suggests that Iranian citizens are growing more receptive to nuclear weapons.”
In Isfahan, the ancient architectural jewel in central Iran that is home to the country's major nuclear installations and enrichment sites, a 44-year-old university lecturer who wanted to be identified only as Masoud F. said he had been a staunch backer of the 2015 nuclear accord, but that he and others were swayed by the recent escalation. In 2018, when Trump abandoned the accord, only about one in 10 people he spoke with thought that Iran should pursue nuclear weapons — but now, he said, the number has increased at least fivefold.
He said anecdotal encounters bear that out.
“I went to a shop yesterday in my neighborhood — the shopkeeper and a student were both talking in favor of nuclear weapons,” he said. Other Iranians, however, foresaw only greater escalation — and more economic suffering — should Iran choose that path.
“I think Iran needs reconciliation and deescalation with the world,” said Saman Jam, a 43 year-old business manager. “We already have enough deterrent measures at our disposal; our conventional army and missiles program are enough for deterrence.” Mehrdad Khadir, an editor at Iran’s AsrIran News website, said he believed an economic downturn and a sense of international deadlock had fueled hawkish views on weapons development. “I don't think the government and the establishment will be affected by such sentiments, at least in the short term,” he said.
Others felt that since ordinary Iranians suffer the repercussions of sanctions whether or not the country actively pursues nuclear weapons capability, there is little to lose by pressing ahead and gaining a means of deterrence. “I think no country should have an atomic bomb, but now that some countries in the region have it and threaten us, it would be very silly of us not to have it,” said Reza Gorji, a 29-year-old engineer. “As a Persian proverb says, ‘We’ve lost both ways.’”
Khazani is a special correspondent. Times staff writer King reported from Washington.
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The candidates’ response to Hurricane Helene tells voters all they need to know
Austin Sarat, opinion contributor/The Hill/October 08/2024
For millions of Americans, Hurricane Helene has been a catastrophic and life-changing event. Since it first hit Florida on Sept. 26, at least 220 people have died and “hundreds are unaccounted for.” It will take months — perhaps years — for parts of Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina and Virginia to recover.
Even now, many places remain cut off. Hundreds of thousands still have not had electricity restored. The New York Times says that Helene is “the deadliest storm to strike the U.S. mainland in nearly two decades.”Traditionally, in the aftermath of disasters like this one, Americans and their leaders have put aside partisan differences and come together. Political scientists have dubbed this the “rally round the flag effect.” But, like many American traditions, this one already seems like a thing of the past.
In the short time since Helene hit, former President Trump and his allies have tried to turn the catastrophe to their political advantage. Their response exemplifies what some have called a “me first” approach to disasters. The Biden administration sprang into action before the hurricane came ashore. It approved emergency requests for federal help from Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Alabama. By the end of last week, the Federal Emergency Management Agency reported that “(m)ore than 4,800 personnel from across the Federal workforce” were involved in managing the disaster. On Oct. 2, Biden announced that he was sending 1,000 active-duty troops “to assist with response and recovery efforts.”
Testimony to the quality of the president and his team’s response to Helene came from Republican political leaders across the Southeast, none of whom are fans of Biden. Like Biden, they put aside partisanship and hailed what the Democratic administration has done.
For example, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) noted that Biden had reached out to him and said, “‘Hey, what do you need?’ … He offered that if there’s other things we need, just to call him directly, which, I appreciate that. But we’ve had FEMA embedded with us since, you know, a day or two before the storm hit.”Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster expressed similar sentiments last week. He said that the federal response to Helene had “been superb,” explaining that the president and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told him they would provide “whatever the state needed.” McMaster noted, “we’re getting assistance, and we’re asking for everything we need.”
Finally, on Friday, the Washington Post quoted Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who offered what the Post called “a robust defense of the federal recovery efforts so far.”
But you would never know any of this from what Trump has been saying. Sensing the possibility of securing a political advantage in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, the ex-president has tried to stir up his usual brew of fear and resentment among those whose lives have been up ended. Ignoring Kemp, McMaster, Tillis and other members of his party, on Thursday Trump insisted that “Kamala and Sleepy Joe are universally being given POOR GRADES for the way that they are handling the Hurricane, especially in North Carolina. It is going down as the WORST & MOST INCOMPETENTLY MANAGED ‘STORM,’ AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, EVER SEEN BEFORE – BUT THEIR MANAGEMENT OF THE BORDER IS WORSE!”
As this statement suggests, Trump has treated Hurricane Helene as an opportunity to reap political gains on the topic of immigration.
Speaking at a rally in Michigan, Trump said, “If you want to see how sick and distorted Kamala Harris priorities are, just consider FEMA.…Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants, many of whom do not belong here at all, including one billion for gift cards for illegal aliens and putting them up in luxury hotels.”
This claim is demonstrably false. As the New York Times explains, “Funding for migrant shelters did not amount to ‘billions of dollars,’ nor did it deplete the coffers of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. And no disaster funding has been spent on those shelters.”
And when he hasn’t been fanning the flames of resentment against migrants, Trump has used Hurricane Helene to deepen the chasm between Republicans and Democrats. Before he went to North Carolina to see the aftermath of Helene, Trump posted the following on Truth Social: “I don’t like the reports that I’m getting about the Federal Government, and the Democrat Governor of the State, going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas.”
The Times notes that “there is no evidence that the Biden administration was purposefully ignoring the needs of Republican areas. In fact…FEMA has designated counties in several states — including dozens won by Mr. Trump in the 2020 presidential election — as eligible to apply for federal assistance.”
On Sept. 30, as he arrived in Georgia, Trump struck a different tone, and noted the American tradition of putting aside politics when disaster strikes. As he put it, “At a time like this, when a crisis hits, when our fellow citizens cry out in need. … We are not talking about politics.”
But it didn’t take long for the former president to try to score political points.
He used a news conference staged in a storm-damaged furniture store to claim, contrary to what Kemp had said, that the governor “has been calling the president but has not been able to get him.” And, again contradicting Kemp, former President Trump asserted that the federal response in that state has been “terrible.”Trump also criticized Vice President Kamala Harris for not visiting Georgia. “Of course, the Vice President, she’s out some place campaigning…looking for money.”
Harris, who had cut short her campaign trip to consult with FEMA officials in Washington, traveled to Georgia on Oct. 2, and, unlike Trump, did not use her visit to criticize her opponent. Instead she announced that President Biden had “approved Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for ‘100 percent federal reimbursement of local costs’…to get relief to people as quickly as possible.’”
Getting relief to people “as soon as possible” versus making false claims to garner political advantage marks stark differences in the way the two presidential candidates think about responding to disasters. Trump’s “me first” approach was also highlighted last week when Mark Harvey, who served on the staff of Trump’s National Security Council, claimed that in 2018, after deadly wildfires struck California, Trump initially refused to approve disaster aid because of the state’s Democratic leanings.
According to Politico, “Trump changed his mind after Harvey pulled voting results to show him that heavily damaged Orange County, California, had more Trump supporters than the entire state of Iowa.”When Americans go to the polls in November, they will have an opportunity to choose whether they want a president who will put aside politics when disaster strikes or one who will use disasters to help his supporters and punish those who are not.
Austin Sarat is the William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Jurisprudence and Political Science at Amherst College. His views do not necessarily reflect those of Amherst College.
*Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Israel may have military superiority, but it lacks a clear strategic vision, say experts

Thibault Spirlet,Hannah Abraham/Business Insider/October 08/2024
Israel now waging war on three battle fronts — Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and SyriaScroll back up to restore default view. Israel is fighting a multi-front war that includes Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Syria. Experts told BI that Israel still lacks a long-term strategic vision on how to end the war. Israel may have fallen into what one expert described as an "escalatory trap."
One year after Hamas' October 7 massacre, Israel has become embroiled in a multi-front war that includes Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Syria. But while Israel may have military superiority in the region, it lacks a clear, long-term strategic vision to end conflict in the Middle East, according to security experts. On Tuesday, it said it was expanding its ground operation in Lebanon by adding a fourth division of soldiers. Meanwhile, it has intensified its air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon, including this week hitting Hezbollah intelligence targets and a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the area of Beirut. It is also weighing up a strike on Iran in response to a ballistic missile attack last week. Targets could include nuclear sites, oil facilities, and military bases.
It's clear the Israel Defense Forces have achieved a series of tactical gains in recent weeks, but they still lack a clear military strategy, security analysts told Business Insider.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said the longer Israel's military operations continue, the more "urgent" it becomes for it to articulate how it envisions war to come to an end. "There is a lack of strategic coherence on all sides in this multi-front conflict," she told BI.
Netanyahu's goals
In a video address on Monday, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is achieving its war goals a year after Hamas' terrorist attacks. He listed them as toppling Hamas' rule, bringing all the hostages home, eliminating any threat from Gaza to Israel, and returning all the residents of southern and northern Israel safely to their homes. However, Bashir Abbas, a fellow at the Stimson Center, told BI that Israel still has a way to go in pursuing national security.
"Even in Gaza, Israel has simply not articulated a long-term strategy for Israeli security at all, apart from wiping out Hamas — which would be virtually impossible to do fully given the nature of insurgent groups." "You cannot just bomb Hamas into oblivion and destroy it," concurred Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding NGO. While he said Israel could degrade Hamas' capabilities, at the end of it, "how will Israel live side by side with 7 million Palestinians going forward after all that they've done to it?" he asked. "There has to be underpinning it, a political agreement and strategy— that means an agreed cease-fire," he said.
Doyle made the same point for the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia group. "Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982, the consequences of which were the establishment of Hezbollah 42 years later," he said. "They're not just fighting Hezbollah, but they're fighting an organization that is now a state within a state with a huge arsenal of missiles of all sorts of types," he added.
An 'escalatory trap'
Anthony Pfaff, the director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, said in August that Israel may be stuck in what he termed the "escalatory trap." "If Israel escalates," wrote Pfaff, "it fuels the escalatory spiral that could, at some point, exceed its military capability to manage." However, if it chooses the status quo, it will have done little to improve its security situation. "Neither outcome achieves Israel's security objectives, which would represent a defeat for the IDF and could threaten the survival of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government," Pfaff said. The problem may be that Israel's security doctrine has long been based on short wars. As the Guardian points out, the opposite has now taken place.
None of the IDF's operations "comes as part of a clear strategy with achievable aims that will, in the end, bring greater ability and peace to Israel, to Israeli civilians," said Doyle of the Council for Arab British Understanding NGO. Instead, he said it "escalates the conflict, but without any clear sense that there is an exit." The increasingly drawn-out conflict has triggered fears of full-blown war in the Middle East, which could spark inflation and lead to a global economic downturn.
Last week, Moody's Israel lowered Israel's credit rating, citing heightened tensions, economic uncertainty, and the potential for escalation into a full-scale conflict. Prior to Israel's incursions into Lebanon last month, Israel's finance minister described the war as the "longest" and "most expensive" conflict in Israel's history, with about $54 billion to $68 billion in "direct" costs.
The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, per CNN.
Will the election change things?
Netanyahu's stance toward a peace deal may hinge on who wins the US presidential elections in November, said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior advisor to the Counter Extremism Project.
While former president Donald Trump would give Netanyahu "carte blanche" to do everything on his own terms, Vice President Kamala Harris would push for a "constructive attitude to ceasefires and peace processes," he said. "I think we're a lot closer to the beginning of this conflict than we are to the end," former CIA station chief Daniel Hoffman told Fox Business on Monday.
"There's going to be a new administration, and that will have a lot of implications on our strategy."

Israel Defense Chief’s US Trip Postponed After Netanyahu Objects
Dan Williams and Natalia Drozdiak/Bloomberg/October08/2024
(Bloomberg) -- A US visit by Israel’s defense chief — billed as a chance for the allies to craft a common strategy in a face-off against Iran — has been postponed, a Pentagon spokesperson said Tuesday. An Israeli official, who asked not to be identified discussing the decision, cited last-minute objections to the trip by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has sparred with Netanyahu about the conduct of the yearlong war in Gaza and on other fronts, had been due to fly to Washington for talks on Wednesday about “ongoing Middle East security developments,” the Pentagon had announced. Those were to have included Israel’s threatened riposte to a ballistic missile salvo by Iran last week. President Joe Biden has urged Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear program or oil infrastructure, amid concerns either move could trigger a wider conflict that drags in Washington, pushes up energy prices and hits the global economy.
But hours before Gallant’s departure, the Israeli official said, Netanyahu decided the defense minister wouldn’t go unless the security cabinet first convened to agree on an Iran plan. Netanyahu also wanted to speak to Biden first, said the official, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter. Similar reports were carried by several Israeli media outlets. Netanyahu and Gallant spokespeople had no immediate comment.
Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters that Austin and Gallant are “in touch pretty frequently so a call could always be scheduled later today or later this week.”
Netanyahu has said Iran made “a big mistake” in firing the barrage of 200 ballistic missiles, which caused little damage, with one fatality in the West Bank, but hit some air bases and forced millions of Israelis into shelters. Amir Ohana, speaker of Israel’s parliament, told visiting European lawmakers that the retaliation would be “significant.”
Iran warned it would respond in turn with a more powerful assault. “We advise Israel not to test our will,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday in a speech in Tehran, ahead of a regional tour of countries including Saudi Arabia to boost efforts to reign in Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon. US Central Intelligence Agency head William Burns said Monday there’s a “real danger of a further regional escalation” and the Israeli leadership is taking into account the White House’s concerns. Yet Netanyahu hasn’t shown a willingness to follow US advice in the various conflicts to date, ignoring calls from Washington for a cease-fire in Lebanon ahead of the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last month.
The US has similarly failed to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza after months of on-off talks. The standoff between Israel and Iran — arch-foes in the region — comes as fighting escalates on multiple fronts a year after Hamas militants launched a deadly attack on southern Israel last Oct. 7, triggering the ongoing war in Gaza.
The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday a fourth army division is being deployed into Lebanon a week after the start of a ground operation against Hezbollah, the most powerful of Tehran’s allied militias. Israeli jets have carried out a heavy bombardment of Beirut suburbs and other areas, and have eliminated most of Hezbollah’s leaders.
An Israeli military spokesman warned on X that Lebanese civilians should avoid the coastline south of the Awali River, about halfway between Beirut and the Israeli border, due to maritime operations against the militant group.
Hezbollah’s deputy chief Naim Qasem said that, while the group supports efforts to secure a cease-fire, it isn’t backing down. “What’s been said by the enemy about our capabilities is an illusion,” he said in a televised address. “Our fighters are on the front, we’re solid.”
The IDF said about 135 projectiles were fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon into Israel on Tuesday, and TV footage showed rocket fire over Haifa. A municipality spokesperson said the attack was the biggest so far on the country’s third-biggest city.
More than 1,500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israel’s bombings in recent weeks and about one million have been displaced, according to local officials. The IDF says 10 soldiers have died in the campaign, which Netanyahu has said is essential to return displaced Israelis to their homes in northern communities. Netanyahu also said Israel has degraded Hezbollah capabilities and killed thousands of its militants, including leader Hassan Nasrallah, his replacement and the replacement of his replacement, Israel said Monday it intercepted most of a barrage of rockets fired by Hamas toward Tel Aviv. Israel bombed a number of targets in Gaza on the same day.
The US and many of its allies consider Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist groups.
In a sign that opinion inside Israel is hardening, opposition leader Yair Lapid said the country should ignore US objections and strike oil facilities in Iran, an OPEC member that exports 1.7 million barrels of crude a day. “This is Iran’s Achilles’ heel, a blow to its economy — the Iranian economy is in a very precarious state,” Lapid, a former prime minister, told the public broadcaster Kan. The government should tell its US allies that “Israel has its own interests,” he said.
--With assistance from Arsalan Shahla, Dana Khraiche, Golnar Motevalli, Alisa Odenheimer and Katrina Manson.

The Palestinian Tradition of Celebrating the Death of Jews
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 08/2024
Palestinians have a custom of celebrating in the streets every time Israel is attacked or a Jew is murdered by terrorists.
It is hard, if not impossible, to find one senior Palestinian official who is willing to criticize his own people for celebrating terrorist attacks. It is also hard, if not impossible, to find one senior Palestinian official who is willing to condemn the October 7 atrocities and massacres against Israelis. Palestinian leaders have good reason not to speak out: they are afraid of being killed by their own people.
Last month, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, ignored the Hamas attack and instead accused Israel of committing "massacres," "crimes," and "genocide" against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Needless to say, Abbas also ignored the fact that a large number of Palestinians expressed support for the Hamas-led October 7 attack and took to the streets to celebrate the brutal mass-murder of Israeli women, children and the elderly.
Palestinian leaders who do not have the courage, or are unwilling, to denounce terrorism will never be able to call on their people to recognize Israel's right to exist, let alone make peace with it. Palestinians who celebrate the murder of their neighbors are not ready for a state, which will undoubtedly be used as a springboard to slaughter more Jews and to try to destroy Israel.
There is no excuse for celebrating murder. A society that celebrates murder will never be a partner for peace. True peace will only come when Palestinian leaders values their people's lives more than celebrating the murder of Jews.
Palestinians have a custom of celebrating in the streets every time Israel is attacked or a Jew is murdered by terrorists, and it is hard, if not impossible, to find one senior Palestinian official who is willing to criticize his own people for celebrating terrorist attacks. Pictured: Palestinian Arabs celebrate Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel and pose, flashing the "V for victory" sign, with a piece of a downed Iranian missile that they moved to the town square of Dura (near Hebron), on October 1, 2024. (Photo by Hazem Bader/AFP via Getty Images)
Palestinians have a custom of celebrating in the streets every time Israel is attacked or a Jew is murdered by terrorists.
The latest Palestinian celebrations took place on October 1, 2024, when Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. The celebrations occurred even though some of the missiles fell in Palestinian areas in the West Bank and the only person killed was, ironically, a Palestinian man in the city of Jericho.
In one West Bank village, Palestinians erected a monument from the tail of an Iranian missile to celebrate Iran's attack on Israel.
Similar celebrations took place in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and in many countries when Iran launched its first direct missile and drone attack against Israel in April. According to a report by Iran's Tehran Times:
"It was also a sleepless night in Ramallah and other cities in the occupied West Bank, that saw excited crowds of Palestinians gathering in the streets and pointing to the skies amid the visible trails of Iranian missiles flying, with a celebratory mood until the early hours of Sunday morning."
The largest celebrations occurred a year ago, on October 7, 2023, when thousands of Iran-backed Hamas terrorists and "ordinary" Palestinians invaded Israel from the Gaza Strip and murdered 1,200 Israelis. During the attack, thousands of Israelis were raped, tortured, and burned alive, while more than 240 others were kidnapped into the Gaza Strip. A year later, 101 Israeli hostages are still being held by Hamas terrorists.
A video from the Qatar-owned Al-Jazeera television network titled "Palestinians overjoyed with the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation" (the name Hamas uses to describe its October 7 attack) showed celebrations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
The Iranian-affiliated Lebanese TV station Mayadeen aired a report about Palestinian celebrations in the West Bank, where sweets were handed out in Nablus and guns were fired in Jenin "in jubilation." A little girl can be seen waving a rifle and a handgun in the air.
Palestinian activist Omar Assaf praised the Hamas attack:
"The resistance has proven today, once again, that the only option the people support is the option of resistance and confrontation, and proved, once again, that this occupation is weaker than a spider web, like [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah said."
In 2004, thousands of Palestinians spilled onto the streets of the Gaza Strip to celebrate a twin suicide bombing in southern Israel that killed 16 people. The Palestinians celebrating, estimated to number about 20,000, threw sweets in the air and chanted slogans in support of Hamas, which took credit for the terrorist attack.
The Palestinians are also happy to see Americans targeted by terrorists. While Israel declared a "national day of mourning" in solidarity with the US after the 9/11 attacks, Palestinians celebrated by handing out sweets, firing guns in the air and chanting Allahu Akbar (Allah is the greatest).
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has since been celebrating the 9/11 attacks with cartoons glorifying Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden or mocking and attacking the US.
The PA's official media outlets made a concerted effort to bash the US by rubbing salt in its most sensitive wounds, and by depicting America as evil, while appropriating Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims as the victims.
In one Palestinian cartoon, bin Laden is shown forming a victory sign with his fingers, which are made up of the smoldering Twin Towers next to a plane about to fly into them.
In another cartoon, the PA mocked the US by portraying Uncle Sam fleeing in terror from the date "September 11." After the massacre and atrocities committed by Palestinians on October 7, a senior Palestinian official repeated the accusation that the US knew about the 9/11 attacks but wanted them to happen:
"They [Israel] knew about this [Oct. 7 attack] and were silent because they wanted that what happened would happen, just as their teacher [America] did in the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks."
— Fatah Revolutionary Council member Adnan Al-Damiri, Facebook, December 20, 2023.
It is hard to forget how the Palestinians also celebrated when Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles at Israel more than 30 years ago. Here is what The Washington Post wrote about the celebrations back then:
"As Iraqi missiles fell on Israel's coastal plain Friday and Saturday, Palestinian residents here huddled in rooms sealed with masking tape and bleach-soaked cloths, in case the warheads contained deadly chemical agents. Still, when they heard the thud of explosions, they cheered for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein."'We were happy. A little scared, maybe, but mainly happy,' said May, a shopkeeper, during a two-hour break today in the military curfew imposed by occupying Israeli forces. Added Amer, a 15-year-old boy who stood nearby: 'It's wonderful that missiles hit Tel Aviv...'
Two Western reporters in search of opinions were quickly surrounded by Palestinians on a downtown street. Everyone who passed by, it seemed, wanted to express admiration for Saddam. Most seemed full of emotion. 'Saddam is winning, of course he is winning,' said Sammy, 27, an employee in a United Nations refugee camp. 'Why? Because he is still fighting. He is fighting 28 countries, and yet after two days he fired 11 missiles at Tel Aviv, with precision. This is a victory.'"
It is hard, if not impossible, to find one senior Palestinian official who is willing to criticize his own people for celebrating terrorist attacks. It is also hard, if not impossible, to find one senior Palestinian official who is willing to condemn the October 7 atrocities and massacres against Israelis. Palestinian leaders have good reason not to speak out: they are afraid of being killed by their own people.
Last month, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, ignored the Hamas attack and instead accused Israel of committing "massacres," "crimes," and "genocide" against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Needless to say, Abbas also ignored the fact that a large number of Palestinians expressed support for the Hamas-led October 7 attack and took to the streets to celebrate the brutal mass-murder of Israeli women, children and the elderly. Palestinian leaders who do not have the courage, or are unwilling, to denounce terrorism will never be able to call on their people to recognize Israel's right to exist, let alone make peace with it. Palestinians who celebrate the murder of their neighbors are not ready for a state, which will undoubtedly be used as a springboard to slaughter more Jews and to try to destroy Israel. There is no excuse for celebrating murder. A society that celebrates murder will never be a partner for peace. True peace will only come when Palestinian leaders values their people's lives more than celebrating the murder of Jews.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. His work is made possible through the generous donation of a couple of donors who wished to remain anonymous. Gatestone is most grateful.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.