English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 20/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
You are from your father the devil, and you choose to do
your father’s desires
John 08/41-45: “You are indeed doing what your father does.’ They said to him,
‘We are not illegitimate children; we have one father, God himself.’Jesus said
to them, ‘If God were your Father, you would love me, for I came from God and
now I am here. I did not come on my own, but he sent me. Why do you not
understand what I say? It is because you cannot accept my word. You are from
your father the devil, and you choose to do your father’s desires. He was a
murderer from the beginning and does not stand in the truth, because there is no
truth in him. When he lies, he speaks according to his own nature, for he is a
liar and the father of lies. But because I tell the truth, you do not believe
me.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
19-20/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: The Lebanese Security Forces Intimidate and
Threaten Dr. Charbel Chartouni, Summoning Him for Interrogation Without Legal
Justification
Elias Bejjani: Hezbollah in All Its Forms is an Existential Threat to Lebanon
and the Lebanese People
US Envoy Says End to War between Israel and Hezbollah ‘Is within Our Grasp’
Berri says situation 'good in principle' after talks with Hochstein
Hochstein sees 'real opportunity' to end war but says it's up to parties
Berri to Asharq Al-Awsat: US Guarantor of Israeli Stance, Negotiations Are Good
Threatened by Israeli Airstrikes, Lebanon’s Cultural Sites Get Increased
Protection from UN
Hezbollah shells Israeli base near Tel Aviv, fires at invading forces in south
Mikati urges end to 'genocidal war' in talks with Hochstein
Israeli source casts doubt on Lebanon deal as US official optimistic
French minister urges Gulf to support Lebanese Army
Hezbollah announces, then postpones, speech by Qassem
Israel army says soldier killed in combat in Lebanon
UNIFIL says it's maintaining positions in Lebanon
Italy condemns 'intolerable' Israeli attack against UN force in Lebanon
Report: Israel finds large troves of Russian arms in Hezbollah's hands
Israeli Woman Killed by Hezbollah Rocket Attack, 10 Wounded
Argentina Withdraws from UN Peacekeeping Mission in Lebanon
UNICEF: More Than 200 Children Killed in Lebanon in Past Two Months
Israeli Cluster Bombs Create ‘Renewed’ Disaster in Southern Lebanon
Israel Attempts to Penetrate Second Line of Villages in Southern Lebanon
When Everything in the Militia’s World Collapses/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/November
19/2024
Lebanon: Between Defeat and Victory/Rami al-Rayes/Asharq Al Awsat/November
19/2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
18-19/2024
Israel’s Netanyahu Says Hamas Will No Longer Rule Gaza
Food Shortages Bring Hunger Pains to Displaced Families in Central Gaza
Israel Plans Military Rule in Gaza
US Sanctions Group That Builds Illegal West Bank Settlements, with Close Ties to
Israeli Govt
Qatar Foreign Ministry: Hamas Political Office in Doha Has Not Been Permanently
Closed
Iraqi PM Slams Israel’s Complaint over Attacks by Iraqi Iran-Backed Militias
Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Stockpile of Near Weapons-Grade
Uranium, UN Says
Iran: Trump’s Victory Won’t Affect our Resolve to Retaliate against Israel
Putin Issues Warning to US with New Nuclear Doctrine
Putin lowers the threshold for using his nuclear arsenal after Biden's arms
decision for Ukraine
Safe-haven assets rally as US-Russia tensions spike over Ukraine
Open Source Intel
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
18-19/2024
Power Outages Highlights Iran’s Growing Vulnerability/Saeed Ghasseminejad/Policy
Brief.FDD/November 19, 2024
Turkey must earn Trump’s reconciliation/Sinan Ciddi/Washington Examiner/November
19/2024
Turkey Shouldn’t Celebrate a Donald Trump Victory Just Yet/Sinan Ciddi/ National
Security Journal/November 19/2024
‘Dancing with the Dragon/Isaac A. Harris/Real Clear Defense/November 19, 2024
Mad Britain: Nine-Year-Olds Being Investigated by Police for Non-Crime Hate
Incidents/Robert Williams/Gatestone Institute/November 19/2024
The Next War: Attacks on U.S. Digital Infrastructure?/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone
Institute/November 19, 2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on November
18-19/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video:
The Lebanese Security Forces Intimidate and Threaten Dr. Charbel Chartouni,
Summoning Him for Interrogation Without Legal Justification
Elias Bejjani/November 20/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/137037/
live/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmulnfnxWEA&t=362s
Video/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyVWg7Kpqrs&t=85s
In a brazen act of intimidation, Lebanon’s State Security forces attempted
yesterday to summon Dr. Charles Chartouni, a dual Lebanese-American citizen, to
their headquarters in Ramleh al-Baida without due legal process. Dr. Chartouni,
a renowned patriotic politician, university professor, writer, and human rights
activist, has been a vocal critic of Hezbollah and the Iranian occupation of
Lebanon.
In a statement to the media, Dr. Chartouni described this illegal act as an
assassination attempt cloaked under the guise of legality. He emphasized his
refusal to comply without his lawyers present and highlighted the suspicious and
terrorizing manner in which the State Security forces approached his residence,
knocking on his door without even ringing the bell.
"This is typical terrorist intimidation reminiscent of the Nazi State Police
tactics," Dr. Chartouni stated. "This is the beginning of a confrontation with
Hezbollah’s terrorist apparatus, operating under spurious legal credentials."
It is worth mentioning that Lebanon has been turned into a lawless state under
Iranian occupation, with its officials and security forces acting as mere tools
for Hezbollah’s agenda. This recent incident is yet another example of how the
country’s institutions have been weaponized to silence patriotic voices who dare
to speak against this occupation.
Dr. Chartouni has notified the U.S. Embassy, asserting his rights as an American
citizen and calling on international bodies to condemn these illegal practices.
On behalf of all the free and sovereign individuals in Lebanon and the diaspora,
I strongly condemn this blatant act aimed at terrorizing a prominent national,
acadamic and patriotic figure. I call on all sovereign Lebanese politicians,
political Lebanese parties in Lebanon and Diaspora to stand in solidarity with
Dr. Chartouni in his confrontation with this terrorism. I also urge human rights
organizations, the Maronite Patriarchate, the Vatican, and the United Nations to
support Dr. Chartouni and hold the Lebanese ruling regime accountable for its
flagrant violations of human rights and national sovereignty.
Elias Bejjani: Hezbollah in All Its Forms is an Existential Threat to Lebanon
and the Lebanese People
November 17, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/11/136914/
Hezbollah’s Threat to Lebanon Is
Beyond Armed Resistance
Hezbollah, the armed Iranian jihadist terrorist proxy, represents a multifaceted
and existential threat that transcends its military capabilities. It poses a
grave danger to Lebanon, the Arab world, Israel, and the international peace as
a whole—whether it exists as an armed militia or a so-called political entity.
Dismantling Hezbollah, disarming it, and prosecuting its leadership as enablers
of the Shiite political Islamist ideology are crucial steps to preserving
Lebanese, regional, and global stability.
The threat of Hezbollah lies in its religious ideology, which mirrors the Shiite
branch of political Islam and is almost a carbon copy of the Sunni variant, with
its extremist and jihadist organizations like ISIS, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, and
the Muslim Brotherhood offshoots. Despite sectarian differences, all political
Islamist groups share a unified goal: imposing a totalitarian
religious-political agenda that threatens nation-states, disrupts societal
stability, and causes global unrest. Hezbollah’s Shiite agenda is no less
dangerous or extreme than its Sunni counterparts.
Hezbollah Does Not Represent Shiites in Lebanon or the Arab World
Contrary to the propaganda spread by Iran and its so-called "Resistance Axis" in
Lebanon and beyond, Hezbollah does not represent Lebanese or Arab Shiites.
Instead, it stands as their greatest adversary. In the 1980s, through a
conspiracy between Syria’s Assad regime and Iran’s mullahs, Hezbollah was
created and equipped with extensive military, financial, and sectarian resources
to hijack Lebanon's Shiite community and hold it hostage.
This destructive reality persists today, just last year, Hezbollah launched a
war against Israel under direct Iranian orders, continuing it despite disastrous
consequences on Lebanese Shiites, including destruction, death, impoverishment,
humiliation, and displacement. Despite the devastation and suffering caused by
its policies and wars in its areas of influence, Hezbollah persists in waging
senseless battles solely to serve Iran’s regional agenda, which starkly opposes
the interests of Shiites, Lebanon, and the Lebanese people. These suicidal
policies underscore Hezbollah's loyalty to Iran, surpassing any concern for the
community it falsely claims to defend and represent—its so-called
“supportive-embracing base.”
Hezbollah’s Role in Undermining Lebanon’s Sovereignty
Since 2005, following Syria's forced withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah has
entrenched itself as a "state within a state." It seized control of the
government, coerced or bought off political parties and figures, and transformed
Lebanon into an arms depot, monopolizing decisions of war and peace.
Despite this reality, most Lebanese politicians and leaders of corrupted
political parties, driven by ignorance, opportunism, or betrayal, openly propose
allowing Hezbollah to continue as a political party after its inevitable
military defeat. This servile stance highlights the shortsightedness of these
individuals, serving only Iran’s hegemonic agenda by ensuring Hezbollah's
ideological and cultural dominance and extending its function as Tehran’s tool
in the region.
The Heresy of the “Defense Strategy” Hoax
Amid this political and religious subjugation, calls have emerged to integrate
Hezbollah’s weapons into a so-called “national defense strategy” or to
incorporate thousands of its fighters into the Lebanese Army under the guise of
“border guards.” These proposals are national betrayals designed to cement
Hezbollah’s status as a parallel armed entity dominating the Lebanese Army's
leadership and institutions, effectively creating a state within the state.
This is the same model Iran has promoted through the Popular Mobilization Forces
in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and its militias in Syria, undermining the
sovereignty of these nations’ governments. Hezbollah mirrors this structure in
Lebanon today.
Iran: Chaos, Destruction, and the Fragmentation of States
Iran’s strategy is clear: weaken nation-states, empower sectarian militias loyal
to Tehran, and consolidate its influence. In Lebanon, Hezbollah serves as Iran’s
primary tool for maintaining its grip on the country. The same strategy is
replicated in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, where Iranian militias systematically
dismantle national institutions, replacing legitimate governance with chaos and
mini-states.
The Path to Liberating Lebanon from Iranian Occupation
Dismantling Hezbollah, disarming it, and banning its participation in political
life are essential preconditions for freeing Lebanon from Iranian occupation.
The Lebanese people, alongside political, religious, academic, and partisan
elites, must recognize a crucial truth: Hezbollah, in any form, is incompatible
with sovereignty, constitutional governance, independence, democracy, freedoms,
coexistence, and national unity. The international community must support
Lebanon by exerting maximum pressure on Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors to
dismantle the group, liberate the Shiites and all Lebanese from its
authoritarian control, and restore Lebanon's sovereignty.
Lebanon’s future hinges on breaking the vicious cycle of occupations and
external dependency that have plagued it since the 1970s. Achieving this
requires the complete eradication of Hezbollah as a military force, its
dissolution as a political entity, and its prosecution as an organization
promoting terrorism and jihadist wars. Only then can Lebanon regain its
sovereignty and lay the foundation for a stable and prosperous future.
US Envoy Says End to War between Israel and Hezbollah
‘Is within Our Grasp’
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
A senior US mediator said on Tuesday there was a "real opportunity" to end the
conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and that gaps were narrowing, signaling
progress in Washington's efforts to clinch a ceasefire. White House envoy Amos
Hochstein spoke in Beirut after talks with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a day
after the Lebanese government and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a US ceasefire
proposal, although with comments on the content. "I came back because we have a
real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end," Hochstein told a press
conference after the meeting. "It is now within our grasp. As the window is now,
I hope the coming days yield a resolute decision." Hochstein's mission marks a
last-ditch attempt by the outgoing US administration to broker a ceasefire in
Lebanon. Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the situation was "good in principle"
and some details of the ceasefire proposal still needed to be hashed out,
including technical details. He said Hochstein would settle those details before
travelling on to Israel, and that Lebanon saw the United States as the guarantor
of the Israeli stance. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen said at a conference on
Tuesday that "there are talks regarding an arrangement with Lebanon" but that
Israel would agree only if all its demands were met, including pushing Hezbollah
away from the border. The diplomatic efforts coincide with an intensification of
the war, with Israel stepping up strikes on Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled
southern suburbs and striking three times in the capital itself in the last
three days. The conflict spiraled in September when Israel began an offensive,
pounding wide areas of Lebanon with airstrikes, sending troops into the south
and killing many Hezbollah commanders including leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Hezbollah has endorsed its long-time ally Berri as Lebanon's negotiator.
Hochstein flew to Beirut overnight after Lebanon delivered its written response
to a US ceasefire proposal which Berri received last week from the US
ambassador. Israel started its offensive after almost a year of cross-border
hostilities with Hezbollah, which said it was acting in solidarity with Hamas
after the Palestinian group's Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel led to the start of
the Gaza war. Israel's declared goal is to dismantle Hezbollah's capabilities
and secure the return of tens of thousands of Israelis evacuated from the north.
An Israeli strike killed two people in the Chiyah district of Beirut's southern
suburbs, the Lebanese health ministry said. At least 35 projectiles were fired
into Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday, some of which were intercepted, and two
drones were also intercepted, Israel's military said.
ISRAELI DEMANDS
Lebanon has rejected Israeli demands to be granted "freedom of action", which
Cohen signaled should apply if Hezbollah attacks or restores its strength, and
Berri said last week the US proposal did not mention this. World powers say a
ceasefire must be based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended a
2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Its terms require Hezbollah to move
weapons and fighters north of the Litani River, about 30 km (20 miles) north of
the border with Israel. Ali Hassan Khalil, a top Berri aide, told Reuters on
Monday that Lebanon had presented its comments on the US proposal "in a positive
atmosphere and that those comments "affirm the precise adherence to Resolution
1701 with all its provisions." Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,544 people
and wounded 15,036 in Lebanon since October 2023, with 28 fatalities reported on
Monday, the Lebanese caretaker health ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
Hezbollah strikes have killed 43 civilians in northern Israel and the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, while 73 soldiers have been killed in strikes in
northern Israel and the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon,
according to Israeli figures.
Berri says situation 'good in principle' after talks
with Hochstein
Naharnet/November 19/2024
Speaker Nabih Berri announced Tuesday that the situation was “good in principle”
following his two-hour meeting in Ain el-Tineh with U.S. mediator Amos
Hochstein, who is trying to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon.
In remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Berri said that his representative and
a U.S. representative were discussing some technical details before moving to
the next stage, which will be Hochstein’s departure to Israel and exploring its
stance. As for any guarantees regarding the Israeli position, the Speaker said
that the Americans are in charge of that, noting that the draft presented by
Hochstein had been coordinated with Israel.Berri however cautioned that “it
would not be the first time that the Israelis disavow their pledges.”
Hochstein sees 'real opportunity' to end war but says it's up to parties
Naharnet/November 19/2024
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein said he was in Beirut on Tuesday because he saw "a
real opportunity" to end the Israel-Hezbollah war raging for two months after
nearly a year of clashes. "I came back because we have a real opportunity to
bring this conflict to an end," Hochstein told reporters after meeting
Hezbollah-allied parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who has led mediation on
behalf of the group. "I'm here in Beirut to facilitate that decision, but it's
ultimately the decision of the parties to reach a conclusion. It is now within
our grasp," he added. "The window is now. I hope the coming days yield a
resolute decision,” he went on to say. Noting that his meeting meeting with
Berri was “very constructive and very helpful,” Hochstein said: “We have
continued to narrow the gaps through the discussions over the last few weeks and
specifically today we continued to significantly narrow the gaps.” Hochstein
also that said he would not take any questions from reporters because he does
not want to negotiate through the media. Unnamed sources later told Al-Arabiya
television that a speech by Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem was postponed
"because the Berri-Hochstein meeting was not up to expectations." The Berri-Hochstein
meeting "did not resolve the pending points, most importantly the clause on the
right to self-defense," the sources added. LBCI television meanwhile said that
the atmosphere was positive in Ain el-Tineh after the meeting with Hochstein and
that the talks were useful and positive. The U.S. envoy later met with caretaker
Prime Minister Najib Mikati. The United States and France have spearheaded
efforts for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war. A Lebanese official had
told AFP on Monday that the government had a positive view of a U.S. truce
proposal, while a second official said Lebanon was waiting for Hochstein's
arrival to "review certain outstanding points with him." On Monday, U.S. State
Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Washington had been sharing
proposals with Lebanon and Israel, which had both reacted to the plan. Miller
said the U.S. was pushing for "full implementation" of U.N. Security Council
Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war and requires all
armed forces except the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers to withdraw from the
Lebanese side of the border with Israel. It also requires Israeli troops to
withdraw from Lebanon.
Berri to Asharq Al-Awsat: US Guarantor of Israeli
Stance, Negotiations Are Good
Beirut: Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat on Tuesday that the
situation was "good in principle" following two hours of talks with US envoy
Amos Hochstein to discuss the US proposal for a ceasefire between Hezbollah and
Israel. Some details of the proposal still needed to be hashed out, including
technical details, he added. He said Hochstein would settle those details before
travelling on to Israel, and that Lebanon saw the United States as the guarantor
of the Israeli stance. On whether the draft under discussion was also addressed
with the Israelis, he said Hochstein "is coordinating with them over it.""This
wouldn’t be the first time the Israelis renege on their pledges," he added.
Hochstein had arrived in Beirut on Tuesday and kicked off his talks with Berri,
who has been tasked by Hezbollah in negotiating on its behalf. Hochstein said he
held "very constructive talks" with Berri and that there was a "real
opportunity" to bring the conflict between the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah
and Israel to an end. "This is a moment of decision-making. I am here in Beirut
to facilitate that decision but it's ultimately up to the parties to reach a
conclusion to this conflict. It is now within our grasp," he told reporters
after the meeting.
Threatened by Israeli Airstrikes, Lebanon’s Cultural Sites
Get Increased Protection from UN
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
A specialized United Nations agency granted on Monday provisional enhanced
protection to 34 cultural properties in Lebanon, including the World Heritage
sites of Baalbek and Tyre, following recent Israeli strikes near them.
“Non-compliance with these clauses would constitute serious violations of the
1954 Hague Convention and would constitute potential grounds for prosecution,”
the UN cultural and scientific agency UNESCO said in a statement. The decision
also includes financial and technical assistance to safeguard Lebanon’s
heritage. The decision was made during an extraordinary session of the Committee
for the Protection of Cultural Property that was held in Paris on Monday, at the
request of Lebanese authorities. This move comes amid mounting threats to
Lebanon’s cultural sites. On Nov. 7, an Israeli airstrike destroyed an
Ottoman-era building near the UNESCO-listed Roman temples of Baalbek in eastern
Lebanon. UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay said: “UNESCO has a deep and
long-standing cooperation with Lebanon. We will spare no effort to provide all
the expertise and assistance needed to protect its exceptional heritage.” In
addition to legal protections, UNESCO said it has been implementing measures
such as satellite monitoring, risk management training and emergency relocation
of movable artifacts.
Hezbollah shells Israeli base near Tel Aviv, fires at
invading forces in south
Naharnet/November 19/2024
Hezbollah said it launched missiles at a military intelligence base near Tel
Aviv on Tuesday and attacked Israeli troops near four south Lebanon villages as
a U.S. envoy visited Beirut for ceasefire talks. Hezbollah statements said its
fighters fired "a salvo of missiles" at the Glilot military base in the Tel Aviv
suburbs, as well as targeted Israeli troops in four locations including near the
Lebanese flashpoint village of Khiam, as U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein held talks in
Beirut seeking an end to the war.
Mikati urges end to 'genocidal war' in talks with Hochstein
Naharnet/November 19/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Tuesday told visiting U.S. mediator
Amos Hochstein that “the government’s priority is reaching a ceasefire, ending
the aggression against Lebanon and preserving Lebanese sovereignty across all
Lebanese territory.” “Anything that achieves this objective has the priority,”
Mikati added. “The government’s main concern is the swift return of the
displaced to their villages and towns and the halt of the Israeli genocidal war
and the absurd destruction of Lebanese towns,” the premier said.
He also emphasized “the implementation of the clear U.N. resolutions and the
strengthening of the army’s authority in the south.”
Israeli source casts doubt on Lebanon deal as US official optimistic
Naharnet/November 19/2024
An Israeli source familiar with the Lebanese ceasefire talks has cast doubt on
the likelihood of an imminent deal, in remarks to CNN. The source noted that
while progress has been made, “Hezbollah’s refusal to accept Israel’s demand for
the right to strike Hezbollah targets in the event of a ceasefire violation
could jeopardize the process.”Without this clause, the source added, it is
uncertain whether Netanyahu can secure cabinet approval for the agreement.
Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right Israeli minister of finance, said on Monday that
“full operational freedom” for the Israeli military in southern Lebanon is “a
non-negotiable condition.”“At the end of the war, we will have operational
freedom in Gaza, and so we will also have operational freedom in Lebanon. We
will not agree to any arrangement that is not worth the paper it is written on,”
he said. “We are changing the security paradigm and will not return to decades
of concepts of containment and threats without response. This will not happen
again.”In an interview with Al Araby TV, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati
dismissed reports of demands to give the Israeli military operational freedom in
south Lebanon as “speculation,” adding that he hasn’t seen such a clause in the
proposal. Speaker Nabih Berri, who leads the Hezbollah-allied Amal Movement and
is an interlocutor in the talks, told Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper on
Friday that the proposal he received from the U.S. does not include mention of
Israeli military operational freedom in Lebanon, adding that the U.S. knows that
such a demand would be “unacceptable.”A Lebanese official who spoke to CNN also
said the proposal does not refer to Israel’s right to continue striking Lebanon
after a truce. The source also said Hezbollah has agreed to separate its
conflict with Israel from Israel’s war in Gaza. Prior to Israel’s all-out
offensive in late September, the militant group had insisted it would only cease
near-daily attacks on Israel’s northern-most territories once a ceasefire was
achieved in Gaza. According to multiple high-level Lebanese officials, Hezbollah
had initially agreed to delink the two conflicts the night before its leader
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in late September.
Mikati said that his government is in contact with U.S. President-elect Donald
Trump’s team. Another Lebanese source familiar with the ceasefire talks told CNN
earlier that President-elect Trump has endorsed Hochstein’s ceasefire
negotiations track, increasing the chances of its success. Meanwhile, a senior
U.S. official told CNN that there is “no stock” in reports that Israel will try
to delay a deal. “The Israelis have confirmed to us they’re ready to do it,” the
source said. A deal with Hezbollah would “send a signal to Hamas” that Israel
and its partners will do their utmost to secure a deal that brings back hostages
held in Gaza, the U.S. official said. “If we have a Lebanon deal, we’re going to
come down like a ton of bricks on Hamas to try to get a hostage deal,” the
official added, saying that Israel needs “to turn this military success… into a
strategic success.” The U.S. official said that the region was in a deadlock as
Hamas refused to strike a ceasefire deal that returns Israeli hostages, and
Hezbollah had vowed to keep fighting until Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza
came to an end. While the U.S. is not privy to all of Israel’s military plans,
the official said, “having the degradation of Hezbollah helps” to strike an
agreement. “To get a deal in Lebanon, Hezbollah has to be put under pressure,”
the U.S. official said, adding that “Hezbollah cannot rebuild its massive
military infrastructure” across the border with Israel.
French minister urges Gulf to support Lebanese Army
Agence France Presse/November 19/2024
France's defense minister on Tuesday urged the wealthy Gulf states to find ways
to bolster Lebanon's armed forces, saying they will be crucial for securing
border areas after Israel's war with Hezbollah. As efforts towards a ceasefire
increase, Sebastien Lecornu told AFP that the Gulf monarchies, rich from oil and
gas, should consider "operational support" for the Lebanese army. "I have
reiterated to each counterpart that we need them to support the Lebanese armed
forces," Lecornu said after visits to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. "Both in the
central role they play in welfare matters, and in the security aspect. We will
have to think about more operational support on the military side." Lecornu was
speaking in the UAE capital Abu Dhabi before meeting President Sheikh Mohamed
bin Zayed at the end of his three-country tour. Diplomatic efforts are
intensifying to secure a ceasefire based on United Nations Resolution 1701,
which ended the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. The resolution called for
the deployment of Lebanese government forces and United Nations peacekeeping
force UNIFIL in areas south of Lebanon's Litani River near the Israeli border.
"There isn't a better solution at this stage than to respect Resolution 1701 and
to support the Lebanese armed forces," Lecornu said. But "to secure the border
between Israel and Lebanon, and to reinforce Lebanon's sovereignty, the armed
forces must be properly armed," he added. Israel expanded the focus of its
operations from Gaza to Lebanon in late September, vowing to secure its northern
border to allow tens of thousands of people displaced by cross-border fire to
return home. Since the clashes began with Hezbollah attacks on Israel, more than
3,510 people in Lebanon have been killed, according to authorities there, with
most fatalities recorded since late September.
Last month, a conference in Paris raised $200 million to support the Lebanese
armed forces, on top of $800 in humanitarian aid for the country. The Lebanese
Army, which plays a crucial role in maintaining stability in the deeply divided
country, struggles to meet the basic needs of its 80,000 soldiers. It has
previously received financial assistance from Qatar and the United States to pay
salaries.
Hezbollah announces, then postpones, speech by Qassem
Agence France Presse/November 19/2024
Hezbollah swiftly announced the postponement of its chief Sheikh Naim Qassem's
speech after saying in a previous statement that he would give a speech on
Tuesday. The statement and the postponement came as U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein
visited Beirut seeking an end to the Israel-Hezbollah war. Qassem will speak
"today", a statement from Hezbollah said, without specifying a time, before
later announcing that it was postponed, as Hochstein told a Beirut press
conference that "a real opportunity" to end the almost two-month-long war was
"within our grasp."Shortly after announcing it would take place, Hezbollah said
Qassem's speech "has been postponed to a date to be determined later."Sources
told Al-Arabiya television that Qassem’s speech was postponed because a meeting
between Speaker Nabih Berri and Hochstein was "not up to expectations." The
Berri-Hochstein meeting did not resolve the pending points, most importantly the
clause on “the right to self-defense,” the sources added.
Israel army says soldier killed in combat in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/November 19/2024
The Israeli army said Tuesday that a soldier was killed in south Lebanon, where
its troops have battled Hezbollah since late September after a year of
cross-border exchanges of fire. "Sergeant First Class (Reserve) Omer Moshe
Gaeldor, aged 30, from Jerusalem, a soldier from the 5,111 Battalion, Golani
Brigade, was killed during combat in southern Lebanon," the army said, adding
three other soldiers were wounded.
UNIFIL says it's maintaining positions in Lebanon
Associated Press/November 19/2024
The U.N. peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, under pressure from an
Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah in its area of operations, says
Argentina has asked three of its officers in the contingent to return home,
while all other contributing countries are maintaining their commitments.
Spokesman Andrea Tenenti of UNIFIL said its “operational capabilities have not
changed” after the move by Argentina, and U.N. forces have not moved from their
positions -- despite the Israeli army asking them to move from positions near
the “blue line” along the Lebanon-Israel border about a month ago. “The posture
of our more than 10,000 peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries remains
unchanged,” he told a U.N. briefing in Geneva by video conference from Beirut.
The UNIFIL forces have not left the 50 positions across their area of
operations, aiming to monitor and report on this situation since Israeli forces
began their military campaign in Lebanon in September. He said UNIFIL has
limited means to monitor the situation amid the fighting between Israel and
Hezbollah. While Israeli forces have at times moved deeper into Lebanon, it’s
not “permanently,” and the level of destruction in UNIFIL zones was “huge” and
“shocking.”
Separately, UNICEF spokesman James Elder told the U.N. briefing that more than
200 children have been killed in Lebanon in less than the last two months,
saying “their deaths are being met with inertia from those able to stop this
violence.” “It’s become a silent normalization of horror,” Elder said.
Italy condemns 'intolerable' Israeli attack against UN force in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/November 19/2024
Italy's Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said that Israel on Tuesday staged an
"intolerable" new attack on the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon. "Today there
was a new attack. Three rockets fell on Chamaa. It is intolerable," the minister
said on the sidelines of EU talks in Brussels. The UNIFIL force has complained
of increasing attacks by Israel since it started its campaign targeting
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Eight rockets had struck the headquarters of Italy’s U.N.
peacekeeping contingent in southern Lebanon. No one was injured. According to
the Italian defense ministry, the eight 107-millimenter rockets hit outdoor
areas and a warehouse at the base in Chamaa, where no soldiers were present.
Five soldiers were being kept under observation, the statement said.Italy said
it was investigating from where the rockets originated, and who was responsible.
It was the second time in a week that Italy has complained about rockets or
shells hitting its peacekeepers' base. Last week, Foreign Minister Antonio
Tajani spoke with his Israeli counterpart to demand an investigation after an
artillery shell hit the gym on the base. No one was injured in that incident and
the shell did not detonate.
Report: Israel finds large troves of Russian arms in
Hezbollah's hands
Naharnet/November 19/2024
As Israel advances its incursion into southern Lebanon, its troops are finding
large troves of Russian weapons, confirming longstanding suspicions in Israel
that Hezbollah is enhancing its fighting capacity with the help of sophisticated
Russian arms, the Wall Street Journal has reported.
Some of the weapons, which include modern Kornet antitank missiles manufactured
as recently as 2020, were sent to southern Lebanon in recent years from Russian
stockpiles in neighboring Syria, according to Syrian security officials and an
Arab official. Russia has long provided arms to Syria’s military, as well as
controlling its own warehouses in the country. Although Israeli military leaders
knew Hezbollah possessed some Russian-made arms, their inability to access parts
of southern Lebanon since fighting a war with Hezbollah in 2006 made it hard to
know the full extent of the militant group’s capabilities. Russian weapons
Hezbollah was known to possess tended to be less sophisticated, with some dating
back to the Soviet era. The weapons Israel is finding now are newer, more
advanced, and present in larger numbers than expected by military analysts. The
arms have significantly bolstered Hezbollah’s ability to fight back after
Israeli airstrikes decimated its top leadership, they say. Antitank weapons such
as the Kornet have been among the most effective weapons in Hezbollah’s arsenal
and have been used to kill numerous Israeli soldiers. The weapons discoveries
have also added to fears in Israel that Russia may be deepening its relationship
with Hezbollah, despite Moscow’s longstanding assertions that it doesn’t take
sides in conflicts between Israel and its neighbors. “Israel needs to be more
assertive and defend its interests,” said Arkady Mil-Man, a former Israeli
ambassador to Russia. “We must explain and convey to the Russians that we will
no longer stand any assistance to Hezbollah and Iran that could hurt Israelis,”
said Mil-Man, now a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security
Studies in Tel Aviv. The Russian government and the Syrian foreign ministry
didn’t return requests for comment. The Israeli prime minister’s office declined
to comment.
Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, highlighted Russia’s leverage over the
Lebanese group when he said recently that Israel hopes Russia will help enforce
any agreement to disarm Hezbollah by preventing weapons smuggling from Syria to
Lebanon.
“The principle that Hezbollah won’t be able to arm again or get new weapons
systems or take them into Lebanon and to renew the threat to the extent it was
before the war is vital to the success of any arrangement in Lebanon,” he said.
“The Russians are present in Syria. If they agree with the principle, they can
contribute to achieving this objective effectively.”
Israel has long sought to maintain good relations with Russia, in part to avoid
conflict in Syria, where Russia has a military presence and Israel conducts
military strikes aimed at stemming the flow of weapons to Hezbollah. But
Russia’s stance in the region has been changing since Russia’s war with Ukraine
began in 2022, analysts say, with Moscow more aggressively seeking to challenge
the U.S. and its allies wherever possible. Russia provided targeting data for
Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea earlier this
year, The Wall Street Journal has reported, and is considering delivering
antiship missiles to the Houthis, U.S. officials have said. The Journal has also
reported that Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization, planned to
provide an air-defense system to Hezbollah, though it is unclear if the delivery
was made. Since Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, Russia has hosted
top Hamas leaders multiple times in Moscow. Russia said it held those talks to
help broker a reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, a rival Palestinian group
which administers parts of the West Bank and wants a say on the authority that
will rebuild Gaza. Russia’s cooperation with Iran has also deepened, with Iran
providing Moscow with drones and ballistic missiles for Russia’s use in the war
in Ukraine. The same drones used against Ukraine are now being used by Hezbollah
against Israel with deadly results, according to an Israeli security official.
Russia’s involvement with Syria deepened after Syria’s civil war began in 2011,
and the Russian military intervened to aid President Bashar al-Assad. Russia
sent weapons that were stockpiled by Syrian forces and maintained its own
warehouses of weapons in the country.
Around 2015, Russians began fighting on the ground in Syria alongside Hezbollah
soldiers, who had also come to Assad’s aid. That led to closer relations between
the two, the Syrian security officials and the Arab official said, making it
easier for Hezbollah to draw on Russian stockpiles in Syria whenever it needed
more weapons, especially antitank, antiaircraft and antiship missiles, these
officials said. The Journal wasn’t able to determine how often Hezbollah
obtained weapons this way. Traditionally, a large share of Hezbollah’s weapons
have come from Iran, its primary backer, and were Iranian-made.
A Journal reporter viewed some of the Russian weapons during a tour of Israel’s
National Munition Disassembly Lab, where materials seized from southern Lebanon
are taken for examination.
In addition to the Russian Kornets, the weapons included other Russian guided
antitank missile systems, including Metis, Konkurs, Fagots and Saggers. All were
found less than a kilometer inside southern Lebanon, above ground and
underground in Hezbollah bunkers, an Israeli major who heads the disassembly lab
said.
Approximately 60% to 70% of the weapons seized in the initial days of Israel’s
invasion were Russian, the Israeli major said. Since then, reservists who spoke
to the Journal said they continue to find many Russian weapons inside Lebanon.
The major said he wasn’t sure how Hezbollah obtained the weapons or got training
for them. Israel invaded southern Lebanon in late September to push Hezbollah
back from border areas and end a daily barrage of missile attacks Hezbollah
launched a year ago in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
Markings on some of the weapons viewed by the Journal appeared to confirm that
they made their way from Russia to Hezbollah via Syria. One case of rockets
found in southern Lebanon had a label in Russian that said the weapons were sent
from Russia to Syria’s ministry of defense. Not all of the weapons had such
markings. Michael Cardash, the former deputy head of Israel’s national police
bomb disposal division, who remains a consultant to the Israeli police, said the
markings on the Kornets confirmed the models were Russian rather than their
Iranian copy, the Dehlavieh.
It was unclear when all the weapons were sent to Lebanon, though the major who
heads the disassembly lab said that some were made in 2020. Others, such as
Saggers, appeared to be much older and had labels showing they were manufactured
in the 1980s.
Fabian Hinz, a military research fellow at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies think tank in London, said the availability of reliable,
short-range missiles such as the Kornet has been critical to Hezbollah, enabling
it to pursue a more efficient campaign against Israel than Hamas, which has only
had access to less-reliable Iranian copies. The Kornet, along with two other
antitank Russian missiles seized by the Israeli military, has appeared dozens of
times in Hezbollah videos of attacks against Israel since Oct. 7, 2023, said
Adam Rousselle, a researcher at Militant Wire, a network of experts that
examines weapons used by nonstate actors. An Israeli staff sergeant who is part
of a medical evacuation team fighting in Lebanon said that the most effective
method of killing Israeli soldiers he had so far seen was antitank missiles or
Kornets which could be shot from 7-to-8 kilometers away. While Hezbollah has
been weakened by Israeli attacks, it remains far more formidable than Hamas, in
part because of its more-advanced arsenal, he said. Israeli officials have
previously said that removing the threat of antitank missiles on Israeli
communities, along with pushing back Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit north of the
Litani River, would be two prime goals of a land operation. An earlier Kornet
attack in April, which Hezbollah said targeted surveillance equipment in the
Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, severely injured six Israeli soldiers, Israel’s
military said at the time.
Some analysts and Israeli officials are questioning Israel’s policies toward
Russia, arguing that Moscow has made its position clear by militarily supporting
the country’s enemies. Unlike most Western countries, Israel has offered only
limited nonmilitary support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, a strategy
analysts say is driven by a desire not to anger Moscow. “We need to sober up
from this approach,” said Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute
for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based think tank. “It’s no longer just
Russian support for the axis of resistance” that is unconnected to Israel. “We
are meeting this in the battlefield and it is extracting casualties.”
Israeli Woman Killed by Hezbollah Rocket Attack, 10 Wounded
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue services said one woman was killed and 10
wounded in a Hezbollah rocket attack that hit northern Israel. According to
paramedics who arrived at the scene, one woman was killed instantly and 10
others were injured after a rocket struck a four-story building the northern
Israeli city of Shfaram. The Israeli military said the Lebanese group Hezbollah
had launched more than 100 projectiles toward Israel on Monday. Israeli medical
officials also said at least five people in central Israel have been wounded by
shrapnel after a missile launched from Lebanon was intercepted. The missile
triggered air raid sirens in the Tel Aviv area before it was shot down. But
authorities said shrapnel from the interception hit several people on the
ground. The Magen David Adom rescue service said it treated five people for
injuries. Victims were taken to Beilinson Hospital, where one woman was reported
in serious condition. Hezbollah began launching missiles, rockets and drones at
Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with Hamas in its war with Israel in Gaza.
Israel stepped up their attack against Hezbollah in mid-September. More than
3,500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli fire — 80% of them in the
past eight weeks — according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. In Israel, 77 people,
including 31 soldiers, have been killed by Hezbollah.
Argentina Withdraws from UN Peacekeeping Mission in Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Argentina has notified the UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon of its withdrawal
from the force, a UNIFIL spokesperson said on Tuesday, in the first sign of
cracks in the unity of the mission following attacks it has blamed on Israel.
The 10,000-strong United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeeping
mission is deployed in southern Lebanon to monitor the demarcation line with
Israel, an area where there have been hostilities between Israeli troops and
Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters for over a year. "Argentina has asked its
officers to go back (to Argentina)," UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said in
response to a question about a newspaper report. He declined to comment on the
reason for their departure, referring the question to Argentina's government.
Argentina is one of 48 countries contributing peacekeepers to UNIFIL, with a
total of three staff currently in Lebanon, a UN website showed. It did not
immediately respond to Tenenti's comments. UNIFIL has previously referred to
"unacceptable pressures being exerted on the mission through various
channels".Peacekeepers have refused to leave their posts despite more than 20
injuries in the past two months and damage to facilities which UNIFIL blames on
the Israeli military. Israel has denied such incidents are deliberate attacks.
Israel says UN troops provide a human shield for Hezbollah fighters and has told
UNIFIL to evacuate from southern Lebanon for its own safety - a request that the
force has rejected. Tenenti said there was no broader indication of declining
support for the mission. "The idea is to stay. So there is no discussion of
withdrawing at all," he said. He said that its monitoring activities were "very,
very limited" because of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and repairs to some of
its facilities. "We're still working on fixing some of the positions, but this
has been definitely a very difficult moment, because we've been deliberately
attacked by the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) in recent months, and we're doing
our utmost to rebuild the areas," he said. Israel's military did not immediately
comment on Tenenti's remarks.
UNICEF: More Than 200 Children Killed in Lebanon in Past Two Months
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Over 200 children have been killed and 1,100 injured in Lebanon in the past two
months, a spokesperson for the U.N. children's agency (UNICEF) said on Tuesday.
"The number of over 200 (children killed) is just in the last two months. It's
at least 231 since the start of the war last year," James Elder told a Geneva
press briefing in response to a reporter's question about casualties. He did not
comment on who was responsible for the killings, saying that it was clear to
anyone who follows the media.
Israeli Cluster Bombs Create ‘Renewed’ Disaster in
Southern Lebanon
Beirut: Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Lebanon is still clearing cluster bombs dropped by Israel during the 2006 war,
and reports suggest that the threat is growing. Israel is believed to be using
cluster bombs again in southern Lebanon, an area already severely damaged. While
the war continues, some sources in southern Lebanon claim that Israel has
dropped cluster bombs, especially in agricultural areas. This could make it
impossible for farmers to use the land in the future, as unexploded bombs could
detonate at any time. The danger has already caused hundreds of deaths and
injuries since 2006. Before the latest conflict, Lebanon’s Mine Action Center
requested four more years to finish clearing the bombs left over from 2006.
However, it has not been able to confirm whether Israel has used cluster bombs
in this new conflict. The center is waiting for the war to end to confirm the
types of weapons used. Hezbollah accused Israel of using cluster bombs in
southern Lebanon in a statement last month, calling on international human
rights organizations to condemn the attack. Hezbollah’s statement, released on
Oct. 15, said Israeli forces dropped cluster bombs in several areas, including
near the towns of Aalman and Deir Siryan. The group said this action violated
international law, especially during wartime.
Retired Gen.
Abdul Rahman Chehaitli, who was Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations in the
Lebanese Army during the 2006 war, explained that Israel dropped cluster bombs
just two days before the war ended. These bombs were dropped randomly, making it
impossible to create accurate maps for their removal.Chehaitli told Asharq Al-Awsat
that Lebanon received incomplete maps of the bomb locations from Israel through
UNIFIL, but some areas still remain dangerous. Removing these bombs is risky and
slow, and unexploded bombs still pose a major threat to civilians. He warned
that the use of cluster bombs in the current conflict could lead to another
disaster once the fighting ends. According to the Lebanese National News Agency,
Israeli warplanes dropped over 5 million cluster bombs in southern Lebanon
during the 2006 war. By 2020, these bombs had killed 58 people and injured
around 400 others, many of whom were farmers and shepherds. The Lebanese Army’s
Mine Action Center works with UNIFIL and local and international organizations
to remove these bombs. However, a lack of funding has reduced the number of
organizations able to help, especially in southern Lebanon and the western Bekaa.
Hassan Faqih, head of the Tobacco and Tombac Farmers’ Union in Lebanon,
described the continued threat of cluster bombs. Since 2006, many farmers have
been unable to use their land because of unexploded bombs. Some have been
injured or disabled after bombs went off. Faqih told Asharq Al-Awsat that areas
like the town of Hamila in the Nabatieh district are still full of unexploded
ordnance, preventing farmers from working. He also confirmed that Israel has
used cluster bombs again in this conflict. Local residents can recognize the
bombs by their shape and the sounds they make. Cluster bombs are dropped from
aircraft or fired as missiles and contain hundreds of smaller bombs that scatter
over a large area. Though intended to target military forces, they are highly
dangerous to civilians, especially children.
Israel Attempts to Penetrate Second Line of Villages in
Southern Lebanon
Beirut: Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Relative calm prevailed in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday after a day of
intense Israeli strikes. In the South, Israel also scaled back its air raids as
its forces clashed with Hezbollah on the second line of villages that it is
trying to penetrate. Israel is trying to ramp up its pressure on the field hours
before US envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Beirut where Lebanon and
Hezbollah have agreed to a US ceasefire proposal. On the ground, Israel now
controls a first line of villages and is trying to capture the second line,
specifically in the western sector through the village of Chamaa and the eastern
sector towards al-Khiam. Khiam witnessed relentless Israeli artillery fire
throughout the night. Israel also targeted the towns of Jdeide, Marjeyoun and
Bourj al-Mamlouk, reported Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA). Hezbollah
announced in a series of statements that it had fired rockets at Israeli forces
in Khiam on four occasions. The Iran-backed party’s al-Manar television reported
that Israeli armored vehicles were moving in the fields of al-Wazzani towards
Khiam. Hours earlier, the Israeli army announced that it had deployed artillery
batteries inside Lebanese territory, a first since it intensified its attacks
against Hezbollah in October. Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee said the
artillery was deployed to provide support for the ground operations as the
forces advance towards new goals. Former deputy chief of staff of operations in
the Lebanese Armed Forces retired General Hassan Jouni and founder and CEO of
the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji
agreed that the deployment of the artillery was normal in the field battle.
Jouni told Asharq Al-Awsat that the first line of villages was now under Israeli
control through fire, while Kahwaji said they are effectively occupied and now
Israel can advance on the second line. Jouni disagreed on calling it an
occupation, saying Israel was controlling it by force. Its military can roam the
area, but it still comes under attack. It has also not built any defensive posts
that allow it to establish a permanent position in the area. The deployment of
the artillery will not have a major impact on the fighting. Rather, it is aimed
at firing deeper in Lebanon, he explained. In offensive operations, artillery
batteries are moved forward as forces advance. This is what Israel is doing. It
has moved up to the second line of villages, but does not consolidate its
occupation of villages, he said. The first line will become occupied once Israel
seizes control of the second, Jouni went on to say. As it stands, the army is
being met with fierce resistance by Hezbollah on the second line, especially in
the Tayr Harfa region and leading to Chamaa.
Chamaa is significant because it lies between two valleys and is the only route
to al-Bayyada, whose capture would be a major achievement given its geographic
location, Jouni said. Kahwaji, meanwhile, asserted that the first line of
villages has been occupied by Israel, which has allowed it to move on to the
second line. The deployment of the artillery confirms this advance. Moreover,
the forces will be stationed around the artillery to defend it, so they would
have effectively established a foothold in the area. On the ground, an Israeli
airstrike targeted the main water facility in the southern port city of Tyre,
killing two local officials and injuring two others, further compounding
southern Lebanon’s worsening water crisis, Lebanon’s state media said. The
attack severely damaged the facility, prompting the Tyre Municipality to urge
residents to ration water use until repairs can be made, NNA said on Monday.
Those killed in the attack included Samer Shaghri, a local elected official
called a mukhtar who handles residents’ administrative affairs, and Qassem Wehbi,
the deputy mayor of Burj al-Shamali, a town east of Tyre. This strike is part of
a broader pattern of bombardments in the 13-month conflict between Hezbollah and
Israel that, according to an October 22 UNICEF report, have damaged at least 28
water facilities, cutting off access to safe water for over 360,000 people,
primarily in southern Lebanon. UNICEF’s report quoted Lebanon’s caretaker
Minister of Energy, Walid Fayyad, who said, “The ongoing hostilities have
inflicted severe damage on Lebanon’s essential services, leaving hundreds of
thousands without access to safe water and electricity.”
When Everything in the Militia’s World Collapses
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Going over the history of the relationship between Lebanon’s state and society
and Hezbollah, which is now over four decades long, one cannot fail to notice
the upward trajectory of the costs that the militia has imposed on this state
and society, and that this rising trajectory has been almost wholly
uninterrupted.
Instead of fulfilling the promise of a transition from protection to liberation,
and then to welfare and prosperity, we have undergone a transition toward
increased exposure, more occupation, and greater misery. It is incomprehensible,
by any standard, that we have ended up, all this time after the resistance and
its so-called fortification of the country began, where we are today, continuing
to be devoured by Israel’s savagery and its insatiable appetite for our blood
and destruction.
As for the claim that this is the price of liberation, those making it have not
proposed a timeframe, not even a rough estimation, for when we will achieve this
promised paradise on earth, nor have they laid out a roadmap of the escalating
milestones we will pass on our way up to this paradise.
That has led a majority - that is growing by the day - of the Lebanese people to
two conclusions that are reinforced by a flood of contemporary developments and
empirical facts: first, that the liberation in question is not a concrete
objective to be achieved, but an unattainable idea fused into a way of life to
be led for a lifetime (or rather the lifetimes of several generations). The
second assumption is that these immense sacrifices are being made
masochistically, to inflict "delicious” pain on the self, whereby we are left
with less of what little remains in our hands or, eventually, nothing at all.
That is, this is something of a ritual we must serve simply because it is a
ritual, without demanding that it, in turn, serves us.
Adding salt to the wound, these militias, groups that call for some national
liberation or other, are tied up with foreign interests that take precedence
over their own nations’ interests, if these foreign interests are not their
primary and ultimate raison d’etre. This fact further undermines their inflated
claims of resistance for Palestine and its cause as what lies behind the mask
comes into clearer view, along with the dubious ulterior motives dictating their
actions.
Indeed, no people, unless they are suffering from a collective illness, could be
promised this "liberation" and be expected to desperately demand it! The
profound sense of disappointment and betrayal that emerges under these
circumstances are expected, naturally, to create a sense of being let down and
reconsidering the enormous costs and comparing them to the non-existent
benefits, and then reaching conclusions derived from these comparisons.
What Hezbollah represents in Lebanon is this militia phenomenon at what may be
its most flagrant, and certainly the most prestigious of militias in the Arab
Levant. However, Lebanon is not the only arena where it has carried out its
disastrous actions. We find, for example, the residents of Al-Bukamal in Eastern
Syria voicing their frustration with the militia and complaining that they
cannot bear the rising costs imposed by its presence and activities. On a
broader scale, more and more Iraqis are crying out about fears of being
embroiled in lethal quagmires because of the militias’ policies.
Almost everywhere in the Levant, they have broadened their criminal activity,
adding mass political discrimination, refusal to enforce any law, the
aggravation of corruption, and the imposition of progressive taxes on economic
life, to say nothing about their obnoxious wanton attacks on communal customs
and popular traditions.
Thus, we find that the collapse of powerful militias resembles the collapse of
imperial, or pseudo-imperial, regimes, as they are launching similarly broad and
high-handed attacks on all aspects of life. Under such circumstances, mass
skepticism coupled with merciless ridicule prevails - ridicule of everything
covered by the militia’s narrative about itself and the world around it - since
this narrative covers just about everything, so does the mockery. The exposure
of the false promise is perilous for those who made it, and the more inflated
the promise, the more spectacular and scandalous the collapse.
Among the lies that are falling apart are a false reading of history and the
present that the militia had propagated and turned into the mainstream
interpretation, mirroring totalitarian regimes that rewrite history, erasing
from it and adding to it as they see fit. A discourse that often means the
opposite of what it says collapses as well - a discourse that is adorned by
quasi-pagan expressions for the entire community to repeat to ward off evil
spirits in which defeat is victory and victory is defeat, strength is weakness
and weakness is strength. Naturally, this narrative finds its noble guardian in
a charismatic figure entrusted with leading us, with our eyes shut, toward glory
and preeminence.
Suddenly however, as it all collapses like a house of cards, people speak
correctly and use terms accurately, quoting numbers to support or refute
opinions, and seeing things with their eyes instead of what they had been
compelled to pretend to see. Overnight, people find themselves face to face with
their responsibility to themselves and their countries: with how to manage
without magic and magicians and without a narrative that seeks to indoctrinate
them, like children, that black is white and white is black. The Arab Levant,
amid enormous difficulties and exceptional hardship, might be facing this
immense test of responsibility today.
Lebanon: Between Defeat and Victory
Rami al-Rayes/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
It is clear that Lebanon has entered an obscure, dark phase. There is no clear
way out, nor an understanding of the costs and losses the country will incur.
Indeed, Israel has been attacking Lebanon for two months now, and it is set to
continue for the weeks between now and the transfer of power in the US after an
unprecedented election in terms of its polarization, results, and political
ramifications.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has ignored American pressures
(insufficient as they were) to end the war on Gaza and subsequently on Lebanon
for over a year, is not about to give this "free gift" to outgoing US President
Joe Biden. Netanyahu enjoys a close relationship with President-elect Donald
Trump, and he is looking forward to working with him when his new term begin on
January 20, 2025.
What matters is that Lebanon is now at the heart of the battle, and its exit
will come with heavy costs, some of which it has paid in the form of over 3,000
martyrs, and others that may be paid later, especially with neither of two
fighting parties deciding the war: Hezbollah is inflicting notable losses on
Israel in the northern regions, targeting military bases and vital facilities,
preventing residents from returning to their settlements, and holding off the
advance of Israeli forces in the southern villages on the border.
On the other hand, Israel has left a lot of destruction in Lebanon, its cities,
and villages, including the southern suburbs of its capital, Beirut. It does not
hesitate to target civilians as part of its "military operations." Israel has
also assassinated Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, his successor
Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, and a large number of first, second, and third-tier
leaders, not to mention the pager and walkie-talkie attacks.
Lebanese people, as always, disagree on whether this is "victory and defeat."
Hezbollah supporters believe they are defeating Israel, while opponents believe
that the entire country is in the midst of a great defeat and setback. A
significant portion of these opponents are betting on the gradual "fall" of
Hezbollah, with some adjusting their political positions in preparation for a
"post-Hezbollah" era.
The truth is that betting on the complete and conclusive collapse of Hezbollah
might be an oversimplification, especially since it must be acknowledged that
the party has popular, social, and representative institutions and
representatives that remain even as it suffers severe blows, its financial
capabilities temporarily decline, and most of its institutions struggle.
In any case, it is clear that Lebanon is taking new paths, and the upcoming
period will not be easy in terms of managing the political process. Dealing with
Hezbollah, whether it is defeated or victorious, will not be easy, especially in
light of the sharp domestic divisions among the Lebanese, which have intensified
during the "support war" phase and escalated significantly since. These
divisions often play out on social media, which frequently turn into
battlegrounds that disregard menial ethical standards of ethics and reveal
deep-seated animosities that broad segments of the Lebanese population have
toward one another.
Right now, the priority remains to reach a ceasefire and end these daily attacks
on many Lebanese regions and have resulted in the death of innocent civilians.
Additionally, the need to elect a new President for the Republic, a leader who
will guide the country through these difficult junctures and bring Lebanon back
to the Arab fold, cannot be overlooked.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
18-19/2024
Israel’s
Netanyahu Says Hamas Will No Longer Rule Gaza
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Hamas would not
rule Gaza after the war ended and that Israel has destroyed Hamas' military
force.Speaking from within Gaza itself during a visit, Netanyahu also said
Israel had not given up on locating the remaining hostages in Gaza. "Anyone who
dares to harm our hostages will have blood on their head. We will hunt you down
and get you," he said.
Food Shortages Bring Hunger Pains to Displaced Families in
Central Gaza
Ramallah/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
A shortage in flour and the closure of a main bakery in central Gaza have
exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation, as Palestinian families
struggle to obtain enough food. A crowd of people waited dejectedly in the cold
outside the shuttered Zadna Bakery in Deir al-Balah on Monday. Among them was
Umm Shadi, a displaced woman from Gaza City, who told The Associated Press that
there was no bread left due to the lack of flour — a bag of which costs as much
as 400 shekels ($107) in the market, she said, if any can be found. “Who can buy
a bag of flour for 400 shekels?” she asked. Nora Muhanna, another woman
displaced from Gaza City, said she was leaving empty-handed after waiting five
or six hours for a bag of bread for her kids. “From the beginning, there are no
goods, and even if they are available, there is no money,” she said. Almost all
of Gaza's roughly 2.3 million people now rely on international aid for survival,
and doctors and aid groups say malnutrition is rampant. Food security experts
say famine may already be underway in hard-hit north Gaza. Aid groups accuse the
Israeli military of hindering and even blocking shipments in Gaza. Meanwhile,
dozens lined up in Deir al-Balah to get their share of lentil soup and some
bread at a makeshift charity kitchen. Refat Abed, a displaced man from Gaza
City, no longer knows how he can afford food. “Where can I get money?” he asked.
“Do I beg? If it were not for God and charity, my children and I would go
hungry".
Israel Plans Military Rule in Gaza
Ramallah/Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has suggested that Israel plans to
establish military rule in Gaza for an indefinite period, despite opposition
from the army. Smotrich criticized the military for refusing to take
responsibility for distributing humanitarian aid in Gaza, calling it a bigger
failure than the Oct. 7, 2023 attack, which saw over 100 Israelis kidnapped by
Hamas. He argued that the army’s refusal is partly why the hostages have not
been released. “The political leadership asked and insisted, but the army
rejected any responsibility for military rule,” Smotrich said. “If it’s
necessary for security, I’m not worried about us being an authoritative presence
in Gaza to eliminate Hamas.”Smotrich’s remarks add to growing concerns that
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to occupy Gaza and establish
military control. Netanyahu has not outlined a clear post-conflict plan for
Gaza, leading to fears that private security companies might take control of
civilian life there. While many Americans, Palestinians and Arabs believe
Netanyahu wants to occupy Gaza, former defense minister Yoav Gallant warned that
Israeli rule over Gaza would be harmful. He called for a governing body that is
neither Hamas nor Israel to avoid paying a heavy price. On day 409 of the war,
Israel continued its operation in northern Gaza. The operation is aimed at
clearing large areas under heavy fire, and it seems to be part of a broader plan
for military control. Field sources in Gaza told Asharq Al-Awsat that the
Israeli army is evacuating and isolating large areas in the north, dividing Gaza
into three regions. This could signal a prolonged Israeli presence in the area.
Earlier, satellite images showed increased infrastructure activity in northern
Gaza, including new and expanded roads. The activity is focused between Beit
Lahiya, Jabalia and Beit Hanoun, suggesting that Israel is trying to separate
these areas from the rest of Gaza. While Israel pushes ahead with its military
plans, airstrikes on Monday killed about 80 Palestinians.
US Sanctions Group That Builds Illegal West Bank
Settlements, with Close Ties to Israeli Govt
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
The US has imposed sanctions on organizations and firms involved in illegal
settlement development in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, including a
decades-old group that has close ties with Israeli leadership. US Treasury
Department sanctioned Amana, the largest organization involved in illegal
settlement development in the West Bank, and its subsidiary on Monday. Already
sanctioned by Britain and Canada, Amana is one of the major funders and
supporters of unauthorized settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Peace
Now, a settlement tracking group, says its assets are valued at around 600
million Israeli shekels, or about $160 million, and that it has a yearly budget
stretching into tens of millions of shekels. Among other things, the sanctions
deny the people and firms access to any property or financial assets held in the
US and prevent US companies and citizens from doing business with them. The
Associated Press previously reported that the sanctions measures have had
minimal impact, instead emboldening settlers as attacks and land-grabs escalate,
according to Palestinians in the West Bank, local rights groups and sanctioned
Israelis who spoke to AP. Israel captured the West Bank along with east
Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians want
those territories for their hoped-for future state.
Qatar Foreign Ministry: Hamas Political Office in Doha Has
Not Been Permanently Closed
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
The political office of the Palestinian Hamas group in Doha has not been
permanently closed, Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said on
Tuesday. Al-Ansari said leaders of the Hamas negotiating team were not in Doha,
reported Reuters. Qatar said last week it had told Hamas and Israel that it will
suspend efforts to mediate a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal until both
show seriousness about resuming talks. Doha also said media reports that it had
told Hamas to leave the Gulf Arab country were not accurate.Qatar, which is home
to a major US military base, has hosted Hamas's political leadership since 2012
with Washington's blessing. During the talks after Hamas's October 7 attack on
Israel last year, both Qatari and US officials indicated that the militant group
would remain in Doha as long as its presence offered a viable channel of
communication.
Iraqi PM Slams Israel’s Complaint over Attacks by Iraqi Iran-Backed Militias
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
The Saudi government reiterated on Tuesday its categorical rejection of the
Israeli forces’ ongoing attacks against civilians and humanitarian and relief
agencies. It called on the international community to assume its
responsibilities towards these violations against the Palestinian people.
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud chaired the
cabinet meeting that was held in Riyadh. The ministers were briefed on the
telephone calls Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince
and Prime Minister, held with Russian President Vladimir Putin and French
President Emmanuel Macron. They reviewed the talks held by senior Saudi
officials with their counterparts from different countries, at bilateral and
multilateral levels, with the aim of strengthening ties, intensifying efforts to
open up new horizons in various fields and achieve aspired goals, and bolstering
efforts exerted to tackle global challenges. The cabinet tackled the outcome of
the second meeting of the Saudi-French Ministerial Committee, and the efforts to
strengthen cultural, tourism, and economic partnerships between AlUla and Paris,
in view of the special relations between their countries and commitment to
developing ties in all sectors.
The cabinet commended the outcome of the second meeting of the Ministerial
Committee on Political, Security, Social, and Cultural Cooperation, established
under the Saudi-India Strategic Partnership Council, which underscored the
importance of coordination and cooperation on issues of common interest,
particularly those related to economic development and international security
and peace. It reviewed the latest regional and international developments,
focusing on the situation in the Palestinian territories. The cabinet reiterated
its concern over extremist Israeli statements about imposing sovereignty over
the West Bank, and the construction and expansion of settlements.These actions
undermine peace efforts, threaten regional security and stability, and are a
blatant violation of international laws and relevant UN resolutions, it warned.
Domestically, the cabinet hailed the support lent by King Salman to the current
Riyadh Economic Forum, saying that the recommendations of the 11th session of
the forum can be expected to give further impetus to the national economy and
bolster the private sector's role in the Kingdom's comprehensive development.
The cabinet recognized the success of the "Cityscape Global 2024" exhibition
held in Riyadh, which aligns with national goals and offers promising prospects
to the real estate sector. The value of the transactions concluded at the
exhibition surpassed SAR230 billion, with sales from local and international
developers exceeding SAR20 billion. The exhibition attracted over 172,000
visitors, underscoring the success of the Kingdom's efforts to position itself
as a global hub for exhibitions and conferences. Moreover, the cabinet praised
the outcomes of the "Jeddah Declaration", issued during the Fourth High-Level
Ministerial Meeting on Antimicrobial Resistance, commending the initiatives and
mechanisms that bolster the global commitment to a multifaceted approach in
tackling global health challenges and seeking solutions through research,
development, and innovation. The cabinet said the Fourth Edition of the Saudi
Green Initiative Forum, set for December 3-4, will be geared toward expediting
efforts aimed at fostering a more sustainable future. The initiative has had
concrete positive impacts on climate and environmental initiatives, helping
boost the total capacity of renewable energy sources to over four gigawatts,
planting about 95 million trees, and translocating 1,660 endangered animals
across the Kingdom.
Iran Defies International Pressure, Increasing Stockpile of
Near Weapons-Grade Uranium, UN Says
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Iran has defied international demands to rein in its nuclear program and has
increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels,
according to a confidential report by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog seen
Tuesday by The Associated Press. The report by the International Atomic Energy
Agency said that as of Oct. 26, Iran has 182.3 kilograms (401.9 pounds) of
uranium enriched up to 60%, an increase of 17.6 kilograms (38.8 pounds) since
the last report in August. Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short,
technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. The IAEA also estimated in
its quarterly report that as of Oct. 26, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched
uranium stands at 6,604.4 kilograms (14,560 pounds), an increase of 852.6
kilograms (1,879.6 pounds) since August. Under the IAEA’s definition, around 42
kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity is the amount at which
creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is
enriched further, to 90%. The reports come at a critical time as Israel and Iran
have traded missile attacks in recent months after more than a year of war in
Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, a group supported by Iran.
Adding to the complexity, Donald Trump’s reelection raises questions about
whether and how the incoming administration and Iran may engage. Trump’s first
term in office was marked by a particularly troubled period, when he pursued a
policy of “maximum pressure” against Tehran. He unilaterally withdrew America
from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, leading to the sanctions hobbling
the economy, and ordered the killing of the country’s top general.
Western diplomats consider censuring Iran
Iran last week offered not to expand its stockpile of uranium enriched up to
60%, during a visit to Tehran by the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi. The IAEA
said during the meetings, “the possibility of Iran not further expanding its
stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 was discussed, including technical
verification measures necessary for the Agency to confirm this, if
implemented.”The report said that one day after Grossi left Iran, on Nov. 16,
IAEA inspectors verified that “Iran had begun implementation of preparatory
measures aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile of uranium enriched up
to 60 % U-235” at its underground nuclear sites in Fordow and Natanz. The
reports come ahead of this week’s regular IAEA Board of Governors meeting in
Vienna. Western countries have been considering a resolution censuring Iran for
its failure to improve cooperation with the agency. A senior diplomat, who spoke
on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said it
is possible that the commitments made by Iran during the IAEA’s chief visit may
not stand in case a resolution is passed. In the past, Iran has responded to
resolutions by the IAEA Board of Governors by further enhancing its nuclear
program. Iran has maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only,
but Grossi, has previously warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to
near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so.
He has acknowledged the UN agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s
centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment.
Little progress on improving ties
The IAEA also reported that Iran has failed to take concrete steps as of now to
improve cooperation, despite pleas by Grossi, who held talks last week with
Mohammad Eslami of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Iranian Foreign
Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian.
However, Tuesday’s confidential report also said that during Grossi’s visit to
Iran on Nov. 14, “Iran agreed to respond to the Agency’s concerns related to
Iran’s withdrawal of the designation of several experienced Agency inspectors by
considering the acceptance of the designation of four additional experienced
inspectors.” In September 2023, Iran barred some of the Vienna-based agency’s
most experienced inspectors. The report also said there was no progress thus far
in reinstalling more monitoring equipment, including cameras, removed in June
2022. Since then, the only recorded data comes from IAEA cameras installed at a
centrifuge workshop in Isfahan in May 2023 — although Iran has not provided the
IAEA with access to this data and inspectors have not been able to service the
cameras. Last week, Eslami warned that Iran could retaliate if challenged at the
upcoming IAEA board meeting. Grossi acknowledged some nations were considering
taking action against Iran. In an effort to ensure Iran could not develop atomic
weapons, world powers struck a deal with Tehran in 2015 under which it agreed to
limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for nuclear power in exchange
for the lifting of economic sanctions. UN inspectors were tasked with monitoring
the program. Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich
uranium only up to 3.67% purity, can maintain a stockpile of uranium of 300
kilograms and is permitted to use only very basic IR-1 centrifuges, machines
that spin uranium gas at high speed for enrichment purposes. A year after the US
withdrawal from the deal under Donald Trump, Iran started to gradually abandon
all limits the deal put on its program and began enriching uranium to up to 60%
purity.
Iran: Trump’s Victory Won’t Affect our Resolve to Retaliate
against Israel
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Iran has downplayed the effect of US President Donald Trump’s re-election on its
decision to retaliate “decisively” against Israel's airstrike on Iranian
military bases last month. Meanwhile, diplomats have signaled Iran's interest in
talks with the new US administration, without external pressure. Iranian Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei rejected any change in Iran's stance after
Trump’s return to office. At a weekly press conference on Monday, he said: “Iran
will never ask for permission to defend its sovereignty, and any aggression will
be met with a strong response.”Asked about the possibility of an Israeli strike
on Iran's nuclear sites, Baghaei replied, “We have taken necessary steps to
protect our interests and nuclear program.” He also referenced Resolution 533,
which prohibits any threat or use of force against nuclear facilities under the
oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). “This document
exists,” he said, adding that it stresses the UN Security Council’s
responsibility to act against such threats. “A threat to nuclear facilities is a
threat to international peace and security.”On Oct. 26, Israeli warplanes
attacked military sites in Iran after a large Iranian missile strike on Israel
earlier that month. Iran had launched 200 missiles at Israel on Oct. 1, in
retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, an Iranian
Revolutionary Guard commander, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Israeli
airstrikes. The two nations exchanged direct strikes in April, but did not
engage in full-scale war.
As tensions between Iran and Israel grow, there are fears of a direct conflict,
after years of covert actions and indirect strikes in the region. Since last
month’s airstrikes, Israel has warned Iran against further retaliation. However,
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised a “severe response,” and other
Iranian officials have threatened revenge. In the days leading up to the US
presidential election on Nov. 5, signs of further escalation emerged. On Nov. 3,
the US announced the deployment of new military assets to the Middle East,
scheduled to arrive “in the coming months” to defend Israel and warn Iran,
according to a Pentagon statement. Iranian Army Commander Abdolrahim Mousavi
said on Thursday that Iran will decide the timing and method of its response,
and when the time is right, “We will not hesitate. Our response will be
overwhelming.”
However, Iran’s verbal threats have toned down since Trump's election victory.
Putin Issues Warning to US with New Nuclear Doctrine
Asharq Al Awsat/November 19/2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning to the United States on
Tuesday, lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike just days after the
administration of Joe Biden reportedly allowed Ukraine to fire American missiles
deep into Russia. The updated doctrine, formally known as "The basics of state
policy in the field of nuclear deterrence", outlines the threats that would make
Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power, contemplate using such weapons.
Russia would consider a nuclear strike if it, or its ally Belarus, faced
aggression "with the use of conventional weapons that created a critical threat
to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity", the new doctrine
said. The previous doctrine, set out in a 2020 decree, said Russia may use
nuclear weapons in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack
that threatened the existence of the state. Other innovations included
considering any conventional assault on Russia by a non-nuclear power supported
by a nuclear power to be a joint attack. Any mass aerospace attack with
aircraft, cruise missiles and unmanned aircraft that crossed Russia's borders
could also trigger a nuclear response. "Aggression against the Russian
Federation and (or) its allies on the part of any non-nuclear state with the
participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint
attack," the doctrine said. "Aggression of any state from a military coalition
(bloc, union) against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies is considered
as aggression by the coalition (bloc, union) as a whole." The Kremlin said
Russia considered nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and that the aim of
the updated text was to make absolutely clear to potential enemies that the
inevitability of retaliation should they attack Russia. Together, Russia and the
US control 88% of the world's nuclear warheads. Putin is Russia's primary
decision-maker on the use of Russia's nuclear arsenal.
WAR
Weeks before the November US presidential elections, Putin ordered changes to
the nuclear doctrine. Those changes have now been formally approved by Putin.
Analysts said at the time that the change to the doctrine was an attempt by
Putin to draw a red line for the West. The war in Ukraine, which entered its
1,000th day on Tuesday, has triggered the gravest confrontation between Russia
and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis - considered to be the closest
the two Cold War superpowers came to intentional nuclear war.he reported
decision on the use of US missiles by the outgoing Biden administration - though
yet to be confirmed by Washington - has escalated tensions over Ukraine.
Washington says Russia's deployment of North Korean soldiers in Russia is an
escalation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on reports that Kyiv may
use US-made ATACMS missiles in support of Ukraine's military incursion into
Russia's Kursk region, said on Tuesday that the Russian military was monitoring
the situation very closely. Putin said on Sept. 12 that Western approval for
such a step would mean "the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United
States and European countries in the war in Ukraine" because NATO military
infrastructure and personnel would have to be involved in the targeting and
firing of the missiles. "Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a
potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of
aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies," Peskov said.
The United States in 2022 was so concerned about the possible use of tactical
nuclear weapons by Russia that it warned Putin over the consequences of using
such weapons, according to Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns.
Russia has begun mass production of mobile bomb shelters that can protect
against a variety of man-made threats and natural disasters including radiation
and shockwaves.
Putin lowers the threshold for using his nuclear arsenal after Biden's arms
decision for Ukraine
The Associated Press/November 19, 2024
President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday formally lowered the threshold for Russia’s
use of its nuclear weapons, a move that follows U.S. President Joe Biden’s
decision to let Ukraine strike targets inside Russian territory with
American-supplied longer-range missiles. The new doctrine allows for a potential
nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation
that is supported by a nuclear power.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Ukraine fired six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles early
Tuesday at a military facility in Russia's Bryansk region that borders Ukraine,
adding that air defenses shot down five of them and damaged one more. While the
doctrine envisions a possible nuclear response by Russia to such a conventional
strike, it is formulated broadly to avoid a firm commitment to use nuclear
weapons and keep Putin's options open. The approval of the document demonstrates
Putin’s readiness to tap his nuclear arsenal to force the West to back down as
Moscow presses a slow-moving offensive in Ukraine as the war reached its 1,000th
day. Asked Tuesday if a Ukrainian attack with longer-range U.S. missiles could
potentially trigger a nuclear response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov answered
affirmatively, pointing to the doctrine’s provision that holds the door open for
it after a conventional strike that raises critical threats for the "sovereignty
and territorial integrity: of Russia and its ally, Belarus. Commenting on
whether the updated doctrine was deliberately issued to follow Biden’s decision,
Peskov said the document was published “in a timely manner” and that Putin
instructed the government to update it earlier this year so that it is “in line
with the current situation.” Putin first announced changes in the nuclear
doctrine in September, when he chaired a meeting discussing the proposed
revisions. He has previously warned the U.S. and other NATO allies that allowing
Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons to hit Russian territory
would mean that Russia and NATO are at war. Washington has permitted Ukraine to
use the longer-range weapons on targets inside Russia after declaring that
thousands of North Korean troops were deployed in the Russian region of Kursk to
fight an incursion by Kyiv's forces. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer
denounced the revised nuclear doctrine as the “latest example of
irresponsibility” from “the depraved Russian government,” according to
spokesperson Camilla Marshall.
“Russia’s the one that continues to escalate this war, and the use of North
Korean troops is just one example of that,” Marshall said. “He could remove his
troops, roll back his tanks and end the onslaught and needless bloodshed in both
Ukraine and Russia. … We would urge him to do so.”
The updated doctrine says an attack against Russia by a nonnuclear power with
the “participation or support of a nuclear power” will be seen as their “joint
attack on the Russian Federation.”
It says any massive aerial attack on Russia could trigger a nuclear response but
avoids any firm commitment and mentions the “uncertainty of scale, time and
place of possible use of nuclear deterrent” among the key principles of the
nuclear deterrence. The document also notes that aggression against Russia by a
member of a military bloc or coalition is viewed as "an aggression by the entire
bloc," a clear reference to NATO.
At the same time, it spells out conditions for using nuclear weapons in greater
detail compared with previous versions of the doctrine, noting they could be
used in case of a massive air attack involving ballistic and cruise missiles,
aircraft, drones and other flying vehicles. The formulation appears to
significantly broaden the triggers for possible nuclear weapons use compared
with the document's previous version, which stated Russia could tap its atomic
arsenal if case of an attack with ballistic missiles. President Alexander
Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron hand for more than 30 years and
has relied on Russian subsidies and support, has allowed Russia to use his
country’s territory to send troops into Ukraine and to deploy some of its
tactical nuclear weapons. Since Putin sent troops into Ukraine, he and other
Russian voices have frequently threatened the West with Russia’s nuclear arsenal
to discourage it from ramping up support for Kyiv.
Russian hawks called for toughening the doctrine for months, arguing the
previous version failed to deter the West from increasing its aid to Ukraine and
created the impression that Moscow would not resort to nuclear weapons.
Safe-haven assets rally as US-Russia tensions spike over Ukraine
Harry Robertson/Reuters/November 19, 2024
LONDON (Reuters) -Government bonds and the Japanese yen rallied on Tuesday,
while stocks fell, as investors bought safe-haven assets after President
Vladimir Putin updated Russia's nuclear doctrine amid escalating tensions with
the United States over Ukraine. Putin said Russia could consider using nuclear
weapons if it was subject to a conventional missile assault supported by a
nuclear power, after the United States allowed Ukraine to fire American-made
long-range missiles deep into Russia. Investors were also reacting to reports
that Ukraine attacked Russian territory with U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, although
the moves in bonds, currencies and stocks later moderated. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield fell to a one-week low of 4.345%, and was last down 4 basis
points (bps) at 4.373%. Germany's 10-year yield fell as much as 10 bps but was
last 4 bps lower at 2.331%. Yields fall as prices rise. Meanwhile the Japanese
yen, long seen as a safe haven at times of stress, rallied 0.7% and was last
0.4% higher at 154.08 per dollar. "The market's
movement appears to be driven by this morning's news about changes to Russia’s
nuclear doctrine," said Michael Weidner, co-head of global fixed income at
Lazard Asset Management. "The market is reacting
strongly now," Weidner said at 1000 GMT. "This safe-haven trade is evident
across various asset classes, with a strong bid in the dollar, Swiss franc, and
even to some extent in gold." The Swiss franc rose
around 0.25% against the euro, while the dollar index - which tracks the U.S.
currency against six peers - picked up by 0.16% to 106.40. Gold was last up 0.9%
at $2,636 per ounce.
MISSILE ATTACK
European shares extended losses, with the region-wide STOXX 600 falling more
than 1% to a three-month trough and last standing 0.78% lower. U.S. stock
futures fell before rebounding slightly, with those for the S&P 500 down 0.23%
and the Nasdaq 0.11% lower. Russian news agencies reported on Tuesday that
Ukraine had launched an attack on the Russian Bryansk region overnight with six
U.S.-made long-range missiles, citing the Defence Ministry, which said the
attack resulted in no casualties or damage. "Seeing
clear risk-off moves on the Russian nuclear doctrine change and Ukraine ATACMS
attack within Russia headlines," said Arne Petimezas, director of research at
AFS Group in Amsterdam. Ukraine's sovereign dollar
bonds shed nearly 2 cents. Investors on Tuesday were also awaiting
President-elect Donald Trump's pick for Treasury secretary, with the pool
widening to include Apollo Global Management Chief Executive Marc Rowan and
former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh.U.S. bond yields and the dollar have
risen sharply since the election as markets have positioned for tariffs and tax
cuts that could potentially push up inflation and lead to fewer Fed rate cuts.
Investors are eager to see how forcefully any Treasury pick might push these
policies. The Japanese yen was also supported by comments from Japanese Finance
Minister Katsunobu Kato, who reiterated on Tuesday that the government would
"respond appropriately to excessive moves" in the yen exchange rate. Oil prices
dipped, with Brent crude futures down 0.37% to $73.04 a barrel, while U.S. West
Texas Intermediate crude futures at $68.76 a barrel, down 0.28%.
Open Source Intel
Now14Israel
In a candid closed-door meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu shared explosive
details of alleged threats he received from U.S. leaders over the past year.
“President Biden called me before the operation in Rafah and warned, ‘Prime
Minister Netanyahu, if you proceed, you will be left on your own,’” Netanyahu
recounted.“My response was clear and resolute,” he continued. “‘Then we will
handle it on our own.’”Netanyahu revealed that just two days later, Secretary of
State Antony Blinken delivered a follow-up warning: “You will not receive any
further military aid.” Undeterred, Netanyahu said he fired back: “We will fight
with our hands and claws if we must. We will not compromise on Rafah.” According
to the Prime Minister, American officials had warned of catastrophic casualties
in the operation, predicting up to 20,000 deaths. “That claim turned out to be a
complete fabrication,” he said, underscoring his refusal to back down under
pressure.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on November
18-19/2024
Power Outages Highlights Iran’s Growing Vulnerability
Saeed Ghasseminejad/Policy Brief.FDD/November 18, 2024
The Iranian government’s warning that Iranians should expect widespread
blackouts this cold season suggests Iran may soon face a perfect storm. The
scheduled electricity cuts come not only as Iranian President Masoud
Pezeshkian’s government confronts the legacy of decades of corruption and
infrastructure mismanagement but also as the Islamic Republic gears up to
confront Israel militarily and contend with a renewed U.S. maximum pressure
campaign.
Preparing for Blackouts
On October 10, 2024, Iran’s Ministry of Energy announced that it will schedule
power outages across the country during the cold season as fuel runs short for
power plants. Power outages have increased across Iran over the last few years,
but this year’s announcement suggests electricity insecurity in Iran will only
get worse.Most Iranian power plants run on natural gas. On paper, Iran should
not face any shortages, as it has the second-largest proven natural gas reserves
after Russia. But in recent years, Iran has experienced summer outages as
electricity consumption surpasses generation due to high temperatures and the
use of air conditioning. In winter, household natural gas consumption for
heating increases, leading to natural gas shortages. This, in turn, leads
Iranian power plants to burn diesel or mazut, a low-quality fuel oil once used
primarily in the Soviet Union.
Power Shortfalls: Spin vs. Reality
Burning mazut causes air pollution and health problems. As the use of mazut has
increased, grassroots opposition has grown. Pezeshkian seeks to spin the
blackouts by claiming they result from his decision to ban mazut. In reality,
though, his ban affects only three plants out of 16 that can burn the substance.
Nor does he explain why taking three plants offline would cause such shortages,
as Iran has 140 other major power plants.
Iran simply no longer generates sufficient electricity to cover consumption.
Some reports show consumption now peaks at 17,500 megawatts above production, a
shortfall equivalent to more than eight Hoover Dams. Consumption growth exceeds
increases in production.
The prognosis remains poor for energy security. Some Iranian officials may blame
resource shortfalls on the 8 million Afghans who now call Iran home, but blaming
outsiders only goes so far. It does not explain decades of mismanagement
hampering upgrades and new plant construction, nor does it explain why Iran
cannot produce enough natural gas to power its plants in the fall and winter or,
conversely, import the shortfall. Poor planning is endemic. While Pezeshkian may
cite environmental stewardship, the reality is Iran has stored 43 percent less
diesel and 23 percent less mazut than it had at this time last year.
Iran Cannot Cover Up Its Vulnerability
While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard argue in Iranian
state media that they are nearing victory against Israel, the United States, and
other enemies, their failure to keep the lights on suggests otherwise to the
Iranian public. That dissonance could be corrosive to Iranian stability as the
Islamic Republic tries to project an image of strength. Since 2017, the regime
has faced three waves of widespread protests, which it only managed to survive
by killing, maiming, and arresting tens of thousands of people.
Combine Maximum Pressure With Maximum Support for the Iranian Peopleز Four
decades after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran’s real GDP per capita is not
back to its pre-revolution level. Sanctions are responsible for only a small
part of that shortcoming. The people know the real cause is the regime’s
unending corruption, mismanagement, and foreign wars. Thus, the overwhelming
majority blames Khamenei and his lieutenants, not Washington. The incoming Trump
administration should focus its messaging to the people of Iran on the wide gap
between what Iran could have been and the misery the Islamic Republic has
delivered. At the same time, the United States should rapidly restore the
maximum pressure policy from the first Trump administration, which Washington
should complement with maximum support for the freedom of the Iranian people.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor on Iran and financial economics at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Iran
Program and Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis
from Saeed and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Saeed on X @SGhasseminejad.
Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based,
non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign
policy.
Turkey must earn Trump’s reconciliation
Sinan Ciddi/Washington Examiner/November 19/2024
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels he has reason to be optimistic. He
was bracing for the election of Vice President Kamala Harris. In his estimation,
that would have been a continuity of U.S. policy of keeping Turkey at arm’s
length. As far as Erdogan is concerned, the return of President-elect Donald
Trump to the White House means a renewed opportunity to gloss over a myriad of
that beleaguer the two NATO allies’ bilateral relationship.
That could certainly be true. Erdogan and Trump may stand a greater chance of
hammering out deals. Still, Washington must recognize that it would be
negotiating from a significant position of strength. If there is to be any
meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be explicit in its
expectations.
Moreover, Erdogan may have to temper positive expectations of dealing with the
incoming Trump administration. It was Trump who imposed sanctions on Turkey and
kicked it out of the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019. Trump did so in response
to Ankara’s stubborn insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 missiles. This
cost Turkey the ability to acquire a vital fifth-generation strategic weapons
capability. Since 2019, Turkey has been too afraid to activate and deploy the
S-400 missiles, fearing further U.S. sanctions. It is also terrified of
divesting of them, worried about facing punitive measures from Russian President
Vladimir Putin. Ankara has also struggled to acquire new fighter jets to offset
the loss of the F-35.
In effect, Erdogan cornered his country into an avoidable position of not having
a modernized air force and an active air defense system. Despite such woes,
Erdogan has done nothing to reverse course and address U.S. concerns over the
S-400s. Turkey now faces continued and possibly new U.S. tariffs on its exports.
Today, however, the Turkish economy is in a far weaker position.
Ravaged by ruinous unorthodox economic policies deployed by Erdogan, Turkey’s
economy has been crippled by hyperinflation and falling personal incomes.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has been seeking foreign investment flows into
the country since he took office in late 2023. The prospect of tariffs in the
second Trump term is likely to mean lower exports for Turkey, further depressing
its chances of economic recovery. But the matter that stands the highest chance
of driving Ankara and Washington into acrimony is likely to be Erdogan’s
continuing patronage of Hamas.
Trump’s foreign policy team is likely to be made up of staunch pro-Israel
actors. The nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), a strong advocate for
Israel, for the position of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is an
indication of that. The same could be said for the nomination of Sen. Marco
Rubio (R-FL) for secretary of state, Fox News host Pete Hegseth for secretary of
defense, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel.
Rubio has been publicly critical of many of Erdogan’s policy positions and
believes he is detrimental to and undermining U.S. security interests.
But Erdogan’s championing of Hamas is entrenched. Turkey is the only country
inside the NATO alliance and, certainly, the only U.S. ally that openly embraces
Hamas as a group of “resistance fighters.” While many U.S. allies have been
openly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon, none have embraced Hamas
in quite the same way as Erdogan. The organization exists formally in Turkey and
is allowed to recruit, fundraise, and engage in formal dialogue with the Turkish
government. Erdogan has publicly taken meetings with senior leaders including
Ismail Haniyeh, Khaled Meshaal, and Yahya Sinwar, and he has vowed continuing
support for the organization.
This is hardly the only point of U.S.-Turkey divergence.
Turkey’s continuous efforts to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are
U.S. partners in the fight against the Islamic State group, is toxic in
Washington. While Erdogan perceives the SDF as an extension of the separatist
Kurdish movement in Turkey, whom he sees as terrorists, for Washington and
Europe, the SDF is an indispensable partner in the fight to prevent a resurgence
of the Islamic State group. On many occasions, Turkish targeting of the SDF has
come perilously close to hitting U.S. military personnel. But where Washington’s
priority has been to negate an Islamic State group resurgence, Erdogan’s
military operations against the SDF endanger that goal.
None of this should be tolerated, normalized, or accepted by Trump’s proposed
national security team. The incoming Trump administration should be aware that
Ankara has particular interests from Washington. It wants to be readmitted into
the F-35 program, avoid further tariffs, and have sanctions lifted. There are
items that could be negotiated if, and only if, Turkey meets specific demands.
Turkey must unconditionally divest of its S-400s — ideally by donating some
portion of its stockpile to the United States for study and the remainder to
Ukraine to aid its war effort against Russia. Divestment of the S-400 is the
surest indicator that Ankara intends to reengage as a genuine ally.
Erdogan must also terminate Turkey’s support of Hamas at all levels. This is a
strategy being employed by Qatar, as it does not want to face retribution from
the Trump administration. This is an opportunity for Turkey to dismantle Hamas’s
infrastructure in Turkey and expel its operatives. At the very least, Washington
should make it clear that it will not tolerate any move by Hamas to relocate to
Turkey.
Finally, Washington should take an uncompromising attitude to Erdogan’s war
against the SDF. Turkey must be compelled to cease and desist all military
operations against U.S. partners, which stand to undermine and degrade
counterterrorism missions against the Islamic State group. The satisfaction of
the three broad areas of divergence would present a platform where talks over
rebuilding U.S.-Turkey ties could begin.
Turkey can’t simply be rewarded for nothing with the sale of F-35s. That has to
be the end result of the rebuilding of trust, which Erdogan has wrecked in the
last decade. The potential for Turkey to acquire strategic weapon systems from
America is a discussion for a later date.
*Sinan Ciddi (@SinanCiddi) is a nonresident senior fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/3231459/turkey-must-earn-trump-reconciliation/#google_vignette
Turkey Shouldn’t Celebrate a Donald Trump Victory Just
Yet
Sinan Ciddi/ National Security Journal/November 19/2024
The Trump Administration Should Make Strong Demands of Turkey: Turkey’s
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels he has reason to be optimistic about the
outcome of the U.S. elections.
Like many, Erdogan was bracing for the election of Kamala Harris, which in his
estimation would have been a continuity a U.S. policy of keeping Turkey at arm’s
length. Throughout the Biden years, Turkish-American ties were conducted largely
at the foreign ministerial level. As far as Erdogan is concerned, the return of
Donald Trump to the White House, means a renewed opportunity to gloss over a
myriad of problems and grievances that beleaguer the two NATO allies’ bilateral
relationship. This could certainly be true. Erdogan and Trump may stand a
greater chance of hammering out deals as Trump likes to say, but Washington must
recognize that it would be negotiating from a significant position of strength.
If there is to be any meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be
explicit and clear in its expectations.
Turkey and Trump: A New Path Forward? Not Exactly
Erdogan may have to temper positive expectations of dealing with the incoming
Trump administration.
It was Trump in 2019, who imposed sanctions on Turkey and kicked it out of the
F-35 fighter jet program, for Ankara’s stubborn insistence on purchasing the
Russian S-400 missiles. This cost Turkey the ability to acquire a vital fifth
generation strategic weapons capability.
Since 2019, Turkey has been too afraid to activate and deploy the S-400
missiles, fearing further U.S. sanctions. It is also terrified of divesting of
them, worried about facing punitive measures that could be imposed by Vladimir
Putin. Ankara has also struggled to acquire new fighter jets to offset the loss
of the F-35.In effect, Erdogan cornered his country into an avoidable position
of not having a modernized air force, in addition to lacking an active air
defense system. Despite such woes, Erdogan has done nothing to reverse course
and address U.S. concerns over the S-400’s.
Under the first Trump term, Ankara, like many other countries, was slapped with
tariffs on its steel and textile exports. If Trump’s 2024 electoral promises
come to life, Turkey will face continued and possibly new tariffs on its
exports, however this time around, the Turkish economy is in a far weaker
position. Ravaged by ruinous unorthodox economic policies deployed by Erdogan,
Turkey’s economy has been crippled by hyperinflation and falling personal
incomes. Mehmet Simsek, the Minister of Finance has been seeking foreign
investment flows into the country since he took office in late 2023. The
prospect of tariffs in second Trump terms is likely to mean lower exports for
Turkey, further depressing its chances of economic recovery.
The Hamas Question
The issue, however, that stands the highest chance of driving Ankara and
Washington to the brink of acrimony is likely to be Erdogan’s continuing
patronage of Hamas.
Trump’s foreign policy team is likely to be made up of staunch pro-Israel
actors. The nomination of Elise Stefanik—a strong advocate for Israel– for the
position of UN Ambassador is an indication of this. The same could be said for
the potential nomination of Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, Peter Hegseth
for Secretary of Defense, and Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel. All
these men strongly advocate for close American Israeli ties. In the case of
Rubio, he has been publicly critical of much of Erdogan’s policy positions, whom
he believes are detrimental to and undermining of U.S. security interests. The
proposed composition of Trump’s national security and foreign policy staff, as
it stands now, could cause Erdogan significant headaches for Erdogan.
And rightly so. Erdogan’s championing of Hamas is entrenched. Turkey is the only
country inside the NATO alliance, and certainly the only U.S. ally that openly
embraces Hamas as group of “resistance fighters”. While many American allies
have been openly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon, none have
embraced Hamas in quite the same way as Erdogan. The organization exists
formally in Turkey, is allowed to recruit, fundraise and engage in formal
dialogue with the government of Turkey. Erdogan has publicly taken meetings with
senior leaders including Ismail Haniyeh, Khaled Meshaal and Yahya Sinwar, and he
has vowed continuing support for the organization. Erdogan has compared Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of outdoing Hitler and accused Israel of
carrying out genocide against Palestinians.
More Problems
Hamas is not the only major issue that divides Washington and Ankara. Turkey’s
continuous efforts to military target and attack the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF), which are U.S. partners in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), is
a toxic portfolio. While Erdogan, perceives the SDF as an extension of the
separatist Kurdish movement in Turkey, whom he sees as terrorists, for
Washington and Europe, the SDF is an indispensable partner in the fight to
prevent a resurgence of ISIS in the Middle East. On many occasions Turkish
targeting of SDF forces has come perilously close to hitting American military
personnel. Most significantly however, Erdogan’s overall position in the
attempted undermining of SDF-American partnership jeopardizes regional security
and vital American security interests. Washington’s priority has been to negate
the potential of an ISIS resurgence. Erdogan’s military operations against the
SDF endanger that goal. None of this should be tolerated, normalized or accepted
by Trump’s proposed national security team. The incoming Trump administration
should be aware that Ankara has particular interests from Washington, in
particular, to be readmitted into the F-35 program, and desire to avoid further
tariffs and have sanctions lifted. There are items which could be negotiated,
if, and only if Turkey meets specific demands. Turkey must unconditionally
divest of its S-400’s—ideally by donating some portion of its stockpile to the
U.S. for study and the remainder to Ukraine, to aid their war effort against
Russia. Divestment of the S-400 is the surest indicator that Ankara intends to
re-engage as a genuine ally of the United States and NATO.
Erdogan must terminate Turkey’s support of Hamas at all levels. This is a
strategy being employed by Qatar, as it does not want to face retribution from
the Trump administration. This is an opportunity for Turkey to dismantle Hamas’
infrastructure in Turkey, expel its operatives. In an ideal world, Turkey would
agree to extradite Hamas operatives to Israel and share what it knows about
Hamas with the Israeli government, but this is unrealistic. At the very least,
Washington should make it clear that it will not tolerate any move by Hamas to
relocate to Turkey, designating the NATO country as its new operating base
outside Gaza. Finally, Washington should take an uncompromising attitude to
Erdogan’s ongoing war against the SDF. Turkey must be compelled to cease and
desist all military operations against American partners, which stand to
undermine and degrade ongoing counterterrorism missions against ISIS.
The satisfaction of the three broad areas of divergence, would present a
platform where talks over rebuilding U.S.-Turkish ties could begin. It should
not be the occasion which Turkey is rewarded with the sale of F-35’s. That has
to be the end result of the rebuilding of trust, which Erdogan has wrecked in
the last decade. The potential for Turkey to acquire strategic weapon systems
from America is a discussion for a later date.
*Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at FDD and an expert on Turkish
politics.
‘Dancing with the Dragon’
Isaac A. Harris/Real Clear Defense/November 19, 2024
“Dancing with the Dragon” by Patrick Jenevein offers a deeply insightful
exploration of China’s business landscape from the 1990s to today, presented
through the eyes of an American businessman entrenched in the Chinese energy
sector. Spanning his experiences with natural gas to wind turbines, Jenevein
presents a narrative that is equal parts compelling and cautionary, highlighting
the intricate and often opaque Chinese business environment.
From the onset, Jenevein immerses readers in the cultural foundations that
govern Chinese business practices, focusing on the importance of guanxi—the
nuanced and layered network of personal and professional relationships
fundamental to Chinese society. He elucidates how guanxi forms the bedrock for
successful business operations in China, acting as an unwritten code that every
foreign investor must navigate. Equally important is the concept of “face,” a
measure of respect and social standing that profoundly influences business
negotiations and relationships. Jenevein shares personal anecdotes that
highlight the delicacy of these interactions, offering insights that resonate
with anyone attempting to bridge Western and Chinese societies in business or
government.
In addition to these cultural elements, Jenevein addresses the hierarchical
structures within both companies and government bodies that further complicate
foreign business efforts in China. He delves into how companies, especially
those geographically distanced from Beijing, operate within an elaborate system
of implicit hierarchies—each level bringing its own challenges and expectations.
This hierarchical dynamic, he explains, often plays into the hands of, as he
calls, the Communist Party of China (CPC), which uses the legal and regulatory
systems to safeguard its interests, often at the expense of foreign investors.
Adding depth to his account, Jenevein connects these challenges to how
geopolitical tensions often eclipsed business interests. He reflects on
incidents such as the U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and the
EP-3 spy plane collision over the South China Sea. These events, which impacted
U.S.-China relations, had a tangible effect on his business dealings. Jenevein
describes how his Chinese counterparts became noticeably constrained, their
ability to make independent decisions curtailed by the need to align with the
CCP’s official stance. Negotiations that seemed solid unraveled as political
considerations took precedence. This recurring theme underscores the dominance
of the CPC in all aspects of Chinese life with its focus on politics and power
in China.
Jenevein does not shy away from describing the precarious nature of doing
business in China or with Chinese entities overseas. His narrative highlights
that the legal system—under CPC control—can be manipulated to serve political
ends, leaving foreign enterprises vulnerable. This power dynamic, he warns,
poses a significant risk for any investor or government officials who operates
under the assumption of mutually beneficial relationships. His dealings with the
Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) illustrate the harsh realities
foreign companies face. In a particularly eye-opening example, Jenevein recounts
how the CPC derailed a potential IPO, despite AVIC’s potential profit being
three times his, purely because “the foreigner was going to make too much
money.” This incident encapsulates how the CPC views business transactions, in
fact all transactions, not in terms of win-win outcomes but through a lens of
control and power. Jenevein’s account raises profound questions about the future
of U.S.-China relations. My own experience working on U.S.-China technology
policy within the Department of Defense and now in industry, I found Jenevein’s
experience particularly relevant to policymakers. He offers salient examples of
how the CPC’s “rule by law” approach starkly contrasts with the U.S. principle
of “rule of law,” where laws apply equally to all. This divergence, he shows,
incentivizes Chinese entities to extract intellectual property from their
foreign partners, as CPC-backed enterprises that are shielded from consequences.
His book serves as a stark reminder to those in positions of power. Reflecting
on his experiences, I feel that Western companies or governments can no longer
afford to approach Chinese investments or diplomacy with the assumption that a
mutually beneficial outcome is possible. For those CEOs or officials who still
view the U.S.-China relationship as fundamentally reciprocal, Jenevein’s account
offers a sobering counter-narrative. He stresses that policies designed to
protect U.S. interests are presently inadequate to counter the CPC’s influence,
highlighting the need for both strategic caution and a clear-eyed assessment of
what potential outcomes. “Dancing with the Dragon” is a thought-provoking read
for anyone interested in the complexities of Chinese society. Jenevein’s
account, grounded in his personal and professional journey, provides a balanced
yet unflinching perspective on the opportunities and obstacles in China’s
evolving landscape. His reflections challenge readers to rethink the nature of
international business and diplomacy, urging a respect for cultural nuances and
an understanding of the political frameworks that shape every interaction. For
Western professionals and policymakers alike, Jenevein’s experiences offer
invaluable insights into a world where profit is measured in power not currency.
Isaac Harris is a Vice President at Exiger and a visiting fellow at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies focusing in the Center for Cyber and
Technology Innovation.
Mad Britain: Nine-Year-Olds Being Investigated by Police
for Non-Crime Hate Incidents
Robert Williams/Gatestone Institute/November 19/2024
Mainstream Britain might finally be waking up to the fact that it elected a
totalitarian government that increasingly seems to behave like the Chinese
Communist Party.
Since 2014, British police have reportedly recorded more than 250,000 non-crime
hate incidents in England and Wales. The non-crime incidents, logged in a
system, can even show up, when employers ask for a copy of a prospective
employee's criminal record.
Daily Telegraph journalist Allison Pearson... was visited by police earlier this
November, informing her that she was accused of a "non-crime hate incident." A
tweet she had posted more than a year ago, the police told her, was "stirring up
racial hatred." She asked who accused her and why, but the police told her she
could not be told what her offending tweet was, nor the "victim's" name. She is
now under investigation for spreading material allegedly "likely or intended to
cause racial hatred".
There are lots of things... the mainstream British media has ignored for
decades: Mass migration from the Muslim world; rampant violence and terrorism;
Muslim grooming gangs, raping, torturing, sometimes killing, hundreds of
thousands of British children and young women, while the police covered up their
crimes. "As a Rotherham grooming gang survivor, I want people to know about the
religious extremism which inspired my abusers. Grooming gangs are not like
paedophile rings; instead, they operate almost exactly like terrorist networks,
with all the same strategies. As a teenager, I was taken to various houses and
flats above takeaways in the north of England, to be beaten, tortured and raped
over 100 times." — Ella Hill, survivor of abuse by Rotherham grooming gangs, The
Independent, March 18, 2018.
Hundreds of people were handed prison sentences for up to several years, for
social media posts about the brutal murder of three little girls in Southport
this summer. They were jailed for criticizing mass migration and Islamization,
but the government said they were stirring up racial hatred. Now, it turns out
that the murderer of the three girls, who still has not gone on trial, was in
fact an Islamist terrorist, a fact that Starmer's government covered up and lied
about.
Will the British mainstream media fight to see that the many -- who were jailed
for speaking their minds about these murders on social media -- are now freed?
Tommy Robinson was severely punished by British authorities for making
documentaries about the grooming gang scandals. A few weeks ago, he was
imprisoned, again, for refusing to be silenced, and moved to one of Britain's
most notorious prisons, which houses some of the most murderous Islamist
terrorists. Nobody in mainstream British media seems the least bit concerned
about his safety.
Meanwhile, actual crimes in the UK continue to soar.
Police do not even bother to properly investigate crimes, such as burglaries,
whereas Allison Pearson's lone non-crime tweet is being investigated by three of
Britain's largest police forces.... According to the Criminal Bar Association,
"the backlog of criminal cases is on track to reach 80,000 by March 2025."
Niyak Ghorbani, an Iranian podcaster.... has probably been arrested more times
for exposing terrorism in the UK than he was for protesting the Islamic regime
while he still lived in Iran.
Most recently, the police informed a man that saying "God bless you" is a crime,
if it causes "distress" to someone who has a different belief – such as Muslims.
Mainstream Britain might finally be waking up to the fact that it elected a
totalitarian government that increasingly seems to behave like the Chinese
Communist Party. Children as young as nine are currently being investigated by
the police for non-crime hate incidents. Pictured: A government "hate crime"
billboard, photographed on April 4, 2024 in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Jeff J
Mitchell/Getty Images)
Mainstream Britain might finally be waking up to the fact that it elected a
totalitarian government that increasingly seems to behave like the Chinese
Communist Party.
Children as young as nine are currently being investigated by the police for
non-crime hate incidents. According to the Daily Mail:
"A nine-year-old child is among the youngsters being probed by police over hate
incidents... Officers recorded incidents against the child, who called a fellow
primary school pupil a 'retard', and against two schoolgirls who said another
student smelled 'like fish'. The youngsters were among multiple cases of
children being recorded as having committed non-crime hate incidents (NCHIs),
The Times discovered through freedom of information requests to police forces."
"Non-crime hate" is not exactly new. In 2014, the police introduced the Hate
Crime Operational Guidelines, which have since been updated. According to the
guidelines, any non-crime incident that is perceived, by the victim or any other
person, to be motivated by a hostility or prejudice based on a person's race,
religion, sexual orientation, disability or transgender identity must be
recorded, even if there is no evidence of the hate element:
"For recording purposes, the perception of the victim, or any other person... is
the defining factor in determining whether an incident is a hate incident... The
victim does not have to justify or provide evidence of their belief, and police
officers or staff should not directly challenge this perception. Evidence of the
hostility is not required for an incident or crime to be recorded as a hate
crime or hate incident."
Since 2014, British police have reportedly recorded more than 250,000 non-crime
hate incidents in England and Wales. The non-crime incidents, logged in a
system, can even show up, when employers ask for a copy of a prospective
employee's criminal record.
In late June, a 12-year-old Jewish boy had counter-terrorism police come to
interrogate him at his home for saying there "are only two genders" and for
saying that Hamas should be "exterminated."
His mother said the counter terror officers "raised concerns over the fact that
her son, who is Jewish, harboured extremist views on account of his response
when asked if there were any groups that shouldn't exist... her son responded
that 'Hamas (the Gaza-based terror group) should be wiped out'." He was also
accused of "unhealthy interest in weapons" for owning a toy crossbow.
Mainstream Britain's better-late-than-never acknowledgement of the tragic demise
of sanity and liberty in the UK is recent, and has especially grown since Daily
Telegraph journalist Allison Pearson was visited by police earlier this
November, informing her that she was accused of a "non-crime hate incident." A
tweet she had posted more than a year ago, the police told her, was "stirring up
racial hatred." She asked who accused her and why, but the police told her she
could not be told what her offending tweet was, nor the "victim's" name. She is
now under investigation for spreading material allegedly "likely or intended to
cause racial hatred".
"This is not what people fought and died for in the war," Pearson wrote in the
Telegraph about her ordeal, which she described as proof of Britain's two-tier
justice system.
There are lots of things that people did not fight and die for in the war but
that the mainstream British media has ignored for decades: Mass migration from
the Muslim world; rampant violence and terrorism; Muslim grooming gangs, raping,
torturing, sometimes killing, hundreds of thousands of British children and
young women while the police covered up their crimes.
One survivor, Ella Hill, wrote back in 2018:
"As a Rotherham grooming gang survivor, I want people to know about the
religious extremism which inspired my abusers. Grooming gangs are not like
paedophile rings; instead, they operate almost exactly like terrorist networks,
with all the same strategies. As a teenager, I was taken to various houses and
flats above takeaways in the north of England, to be beaten, tortured and raped
over 100 times. I was called a 'white slag' and 'white c***"'as they beat me."
"They made it clear that because I was a non-Muslim, and not a virgin, and
because I didn't dress 'modestly', that they believed I deserved to be
'punished'. They said I had to 'obey' or be beaten."
Hundreds of people were handed prison sentences for up to several years, for
social media posts about the brutal murder of three little girls in Southport
this summer. They were jailed for criticizing mass migration and Islamization,
but the government said they were stirring up racial hatred. Now, it turns out
that the murderer of the three girls, who still has not gone on trial, was in
fact an Islamist terrorist, a fact that Starmer's government covered up and lied
about.
Will the British mainstream media fight to see that the many -- who were jailed
for speaking their minds about these murders on social media -- are now freed?
Tommy Robinson was severely punished by British authorities for speaking out
against and making documentaries about the grooming gang scandals. A few weeks
ago, he was imprisoned, again, for refusing to be silenced, and moved to one of
Britain's most notorious prisons, which houses some of the most murderous
Islamist terrorists. Nobody in mainstream British media seems the least bit
concerned about his safety.
Meanwhile, actual crimes in the UK continue to soar. "According to the latest
figures, the number of knife-related offences in England and Wales rose to
49,489 in 2023, up from 46,153 in 2022" along with a 20% increase in robberies
involving knives. Police do not even bother to properly investigate crimes, such
as burglaries –between 2015 and 2021, "police failed to solve one million" of
them -- whereas Allison Pearson's lone non-crime tweet is being investigated by
three of Britain's largest police forces.
The British justice system is highly dysfunctional, with victims of rape and
sexual assault waiting up to more than five years for their cases to be heard in
court. According to the Criminal Bar Association, "the backlog of criminal cases
is on track to reach 80,000 by March 2025." One rape survivor, Emmy Hemmins,
waited five years and 11 months for her case to go to trial. It was postponed
eight times, and in the meantime she was further traumatized by the extreme wait
and suffered from anxiety attacks. The court found her rapist not guilty.
Scotland Yard also spent 15 months investigating Maya Forstater, the executive
director of Sex Matters, which campaigns for clarity about sex in law and
policy, after a complaint that a post she made about a transgender doctor was a
"malicious communication." She, too, was not told what tweet she was being
investigated for or who had made the complaint until she agreed to turn up to an
interview with police officers.
While middle-aged ladies and pensioners were handed speedy prison sentences for
the lone social media post which they that they had gone on to delete and for
which they had apologized, TikToker Fiona Ryan, celebrated October 7, compared
Ashkenazi Jews to Nazis, made jokes about the Holocaust, claimed Jewish doctors
carried out sex change procedures on children, and, according to the Court,
"supported Hamas online", was merely handed a suspended prison sentence of 20
She avoided jail altogether.
In the UK, evidently, supporters of terrorists do not need to fear any
consequences for their actions.
Pro-Hamas, terror-supporting mobs in London continue to enjoy the protection of
the police, while those who oppose them, and want to comment on their
activities, are subjected to police violence, and arrested. Niyak Ghorbani, an
Iranian podcaster, was kicked by police simply for filming a pro-Hamas protest.
Ghorbani has probably been arrested more times for exposing terrorism in the UK
than he was for protesting the Islamic regime while he still lived in Iran.
While Islam appears to have a special, protected status in the UK -- Islamic
preachers and worshipers are free to broadcast their prayers for everyone to
hear -- Christian street preachers in the UK, including pensioners, have for
years been arrested for preaching the gospel in public.
Most recently, the police informed a man, a street preacher, that saying "God
bless you" is a crime, if it causes "distress" to someone who has a different
belief – such as Muslims.
*Robert Williams is based in the United States.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Next War: Attacks on U.S. Digital Infrastructure?
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/November 19, 2024
Chinese hackers recently sought to target the mobile phones of then-presidential
candidate Donald J. Trump and intercepted data meant for our law enforcement
agencies. (Image source: iStock)
It's an old saying repeated by military strategists who consistently warn,
"Don't prepare to fight the last war..."
Their inference is that, while there are lessons to be learned from studying the
last conflict, the next one may well be profoundly different than what you
previously endured, catching a nation totally unprepared.
For America, the "next one" may already be upon us. It is not the scenario we
anticipated, namely enemy aircraft coming over the pole to attack with nuclear
weapons, or a catastrophic exchange of ICBMs. Even the lessons gained from the
current Russian war on Ukraine may not be fully applicable to America's defense
of the homeland. Consider the current assault as revealed in media reports.
Chinese hackers sought to target the mobile phones of then-presidential
candidate Donald J. Trump and intercepted data meant for our law enforcement
agencies.
A sworn enemy, Iran, is also looking to wage their war against "The Great Satan"
by seeking to hit our nation's most vulnerable targets: our digital
infrastructure.
Meanwhile, today's Pentagon is wrestling with multibillion dollar projects that
are not going well. The Army has been stymied in developing a new attack
helicopter, at a cost to the taxpayer that is staggering.
The Air Force is still profoundly unhappy with its next generation tanker
aircraft built by Boeing, and rightfully so. The Navy lost an aircraft carrier
to an accidental fire.
Based on these multibillion-dollar woes, the idea that the incoming Trump
administration intends to shake up the Pentagon should not only come as no
surprise but should be lauded and welcomed by Americans who want a strong,
credible and effective defense. However, whoever sits in the corner office of
the Pentagon needs to embrace the clear and urgent warning that we not only
can't fight the last war, but our enemies are already engaged in the next one,
intent on defeating America where we live: online.
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.