English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 01/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak
knees, and make straight paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be
put out of joint, but rather be healed
Letter to the Hebrews 12/01-13/:”Since we are surrounded by so great a cloud of
witnesses, let us also lay aside every weight and the sin that clings so
closely, and let us run with perseverance the race that is set before us,
looking to Jesus the pioneer and perfecter of our faith, who for the sake of the
joy that was set before him endured the cross, disregarding its shame, and has
taken his seat at the right hand of the throne of God. Consider him who endured
such hostility against himself from sinners, so that you may not grow weary or
lose heart. In your struggle against sin you have not yet resisted to the point
of shedding your blood. And you have forgotten the exhortation that addresses
you as children ‘My child, do not regard lightly the discipline of the Lord, or
lose heart when you are punished by him; for the Lord disciplines those whom he
loves, and chastises every child whom he accepts.’ Endure trials for the sake of
discipline. God is treating you as children; for what child is there whom a
parent does not discipline? If you do not have that discipline in which all
children share, then you are illegitimate and not his children. Moreover, we had
human parents to discipline us, and we respected them. Should we not be even
more willing to be subject to the Father of spirits and live?For they
disciplined us for a short time as seemed best to them, but he disciplines us
for our good, in order that we may share his holiness. Now, discipline always
seems painful rather than pleasant at the time, but later it yields the peaceful
fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it. Therefore lift your
drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make straight paths for your
feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint, but rather be healed.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 31- November
01/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video: Naiem Qassem – A Hypocrite and a Fool, His
Speech of today is Bundle of Delusions, Hallucinations, and Self-Deception
Israel moves to dismantle, Hezbollah, Iran's backbone - is it working? Expert
answers
Blinken says ‘good progress’ made toward Lebanon ceasefire deal
Lebanon ceasefire draft revealed: IDF withdrawal within a week, US supervision -
report
Lebanon’s Berri: Resolution 1701 Stands Unchanged
Lebanon PM Says Hopes for Ceasefire With Israel in 'Coming Hours or Days'
Israel’s military leaders signal their work in Gaza and Lebanon is done. Will
Netanyahu listen?
6 Health Workers Killed in Israeli Strikes in South Lebanon
UN Peacekeeping Mission in South Lebanon Has Recorded over 30 Incidents
Resulting in Damage
Khiam: The Center of Arab-Israeli Conflict Faces ‘Fourth Wave of Destruction’
Israel Warns People to Evacuate from More Areas in East, South Lebanon
A Lebanese Family Planning for a Daughter's Wedding is Killed in an Israeli
Strike on Their Home
Hezbollah reportedly agrees to withdraw beyond Litani River, Lebanese reports
claim
Irish peacekeeping troops escape injury after Lebanon camp struck by rocket
Israel, Lebanon may be nearing potential agreements to end Hezbollah war -
analysis
Seven killed in Israel in deadliest Hezbollah rocket strikes in months
Breaking the silence: New voices and shifting power in Lebanon/Tolik Piflaks/allisraelnews/
Published: October 30, 2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 31- November
01/2024
Iran preparing strike on Israel from Iraqi territory within days, Axios reports
Netanyahu: Israel Today Has More Freedom of Action in Iran Than Ever
Pope Francis meets wounded Israeli soldier, Sheba Medical Center leaders at
Vatican
Joint intelligence operation uncovers Israeli agents for Iran, including
attempted assassin
Israel breaks up another Iran spy ring, security services say
What displacement looks like for Palestinians in Gaza as Israel-Hamas war
continues
Israeli military kills three Palestinians in West Bank, health ministry says
At least 46 Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes, hospital hit, says Gaza
ministry
Arab League Hosts 16th Nuclear, Security Forum
All 3 Iranian Consulates in Germany Ordered Shut
Israel envoy seeks hostages 'at any cost,' says Canada has strained ties during
war
Saudi foreign minister denounces Israel's north Gaza assault as genocide
Strike on Iran shows Israeli Air Force's embrace of ballistic missiles
Turkey looks to end Kurdish PKK conflict as regional instability grows
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on October 31- November 01/2024
Saudi Arabia must decide if a relationship with Israel is worth its
while/Jerusalem Post Editorial/October 28/2024
The Biased Media: What They Make It Their Business Not to See/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone
Institute/October 31, 2024
Breaking: ‘Christian Terrorist’ Who Murdered Three Little Girls Was Reading
Jihadist Literature/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/October 31, 2024
Rx for America/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute./October 31, 2024
The Seriha Massacre… Sudan’s Shock/Osman Mirghani/Asharq AlAwsat/October 31/2014
For Iran, this is a pivotal US presidential election/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/October 31, 2024
Trusting in the power of the US economy/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/October 31,
2024
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on October 31- November 01/2024
Elias
Bejjani/Text and Video: Naiem Qassem – A Hypocrite and a Fool, His Speech of
today is Bundle of Delusions, Hallucinations, and Self-Deception
Elias Bejjani/October 30/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/136325/
It’s no surprise Israel hasn’t yet targeted Sheikh Naiem Qassem,
though it could undoubtedly do so if it wished. The answer is clear: Israel
wouldn’t find a more self-deluded and detached leader to continue leading
Hezbollah—a group now mired in uprooting, destruction, and irreversible loss.
Hezbollah is disintegrating, with its fighters and leaders falling, weapons
stores destroyed, its communities displaced, and southern Lebanon, the Bekaa
Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburb laid to waste. Yet in his speech today,
Qassem boldly, and absurdly, vowed “absolute defeat” for Israel, claiming a
future of “final victory” for Hezbollah. Such claims only underscore his
estrangement from reality.
In his first speech since assuming his new role, as Hezbollah’s leader, Qassem
stated that “the Israeli enemy won’t be able to impose its conditions” and that
Hezbollah is “ready for a long war” with “final victory” awaiting.
But Qassem’s words are an exercise in self-deception, for Hezbollah’s defeat is
already evident in the destruction of its strongholds and the daily suffering of
Lebanese in general and Lebanese Shiites in particular. He avoided the reality
of Hezbollah’s catastrophic failures and the price his people are paying for the
false promises of “protection and construction” evilly echoed by the terrorist
Hezbollah and its masters, the criminal Iranian Mullahs for over 40 years.
Qassem lauded Hezbollah’s role in what he called the “Battle of Mighty
Warriors,” describing its role in Lebanon, and that Of Hamas in Gaza as an
“epic.” But the real epic here is Hezbollah’s refusal to face the facts.
Hezbollah’s war is one of Iranian design; Qassem himself is merely Iran’s
mouthpiece, his only “choice” being to obey Tehran’s dictates.
In his speech, he defiantly declared, “We will disrupt the Israeli scheme, and
we are capable of doing so,” yet every sign points to Hezbollah’s total
weakening and defeat, its only role now serving Iran’s interests, no matter the
price Lebanon’s Shiite community pays.
War always has winners and losers, and for Hezbollah, not surrendering and
accepting the defeat means recklessly dragging Lebanon further into ruin, and
stubbornly resisting reality. By pledging to fight to the end, Qassem merely
sets up Hezbollah—and Lebanon—for even more suffering. Meanwhile, Iran exploits
Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon purely to advance its own interests, no matter
the cost to Lebanese lives and livelihoods.
“If Netanyahu vows ‘absolute victory,’ we promise you absolute defeat,” Qassem
insisted, ignoring the catastrophic state Hezbollah finds itself in today.
Ultimately, Hezbollah has lost its war with Israel and stands militarily
defeated. The logical step is to halt this suicidal war, surrender its weapons,
and hand them over to the Lebanese Army, granting Lebanon a chance for peace and
stability.
In conclusion, There is no hope for Lebanon, no path to sovereignty, stability,
or peace, while Hezbollah, under Iran’s command, remains occupying the country
and controlling its puppet government.
in summary, Qassem’s speech was a spectacle of delusion, a web of lies,
hallucinations, fabrications, and daydreams that insulted the intelligence of
every Lebanese. It demonstrated a pathological detachment from the dire reality
facing Lebanon’s Shiites and the Lebanese people, who bear the weight of
Hezbollah’s ruinous legacy.
Israel moves to dismantle, Hezbollah, Iran's backbone -
is it working? Expert answers
Maariv/October 28/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/10/136354/
Mideast expert reveals dramatic drop in Hezbollah's capabilities in daily
launches, while mysterious disappearance of Quds Force commander signals deeper
crisis in Tehran. Professor Amatzya Baram, an expert in Middle East and Persian
Gulf Studies, spoke with Maariv on Monday and raised significant points about
Hezbollah's capabilities and Iran's policy regarding the use of precise
long-range missiles. "Hezbollah operatives are doing everything they can except
for one thing – using the heavy and precise strategic missiles," noted Baram. He
estimated that the Iranians have been deliberately preserving these missiles and
directing Hezbollah not to launch them. "It's important for the Iranians that we
feel the threat of missiles above our heads. Now, the Iranians are in direct
confrontation with us, not through proxies. The Iranians don't know where the
confrontation will develop, so it's very important to them that Hezbollah
preserves its precise long-range strategic missiles. According to their view, if
Israel knows these missile threats exist - it will act with extra caution
compared to if Hezbollah didn't have these weapons." According to him, while
Hezbollah operates many tools, including drones, missiles, and rockets, these
are limited in their range and barely reach significant distances, like Tel
Aviv. "In my opinion, they have few heavy rockets left for long ranges –
they can reach the Krayot, Acre, Nahariya, and even Carmiel, but struggle to
reach Haifa and deeper into the country. In practice, the scope of launches they
carry out is significantly lower than IDF estimates before the war broke out.
The military thought that Iron Dome wouldn't be able to keep up with the launch
rate at all," Baram claimed. "The IDF's pre-war assessment of Hezbollah's launch
rate was about 1,500 missiles per day - while today, there are about 200
Hezbollah launches toward Israel each day,” Baram added. “This fact indicates
severe damage to the terrorist organization's launch positions and manpower."
Baram emphasized that the ability to manage massive missile salvos is even more
limited due to the lack of an organized command backbone and consistent
coordination.
"The IDF has taken out about 3,000 Hezbollah field operatives, who were
eliminated or wounded. We severely hit operators and the command structure, but
there are still terrorist cells of the organization that can independently
operate missiles and drones. As we see, they are capable of sending missile
salvos. This action shows some degree of coordination between Hezbollah cells,"
he said.
Iran's control over Hezbollah
Baram pointed to another trend in the organization - in recent months, there has
been disruption in Iran's control over Hezbollah. "The Iranians are struggling
to regain control over the organization and its details, including military
mechanisms,” he said, “Part of the Iranian command in Lebanon and Syria,
including Quds Force officers, were hit. This fact made it difficult to transfer
ammunition to Hezbollah and created gaps in command. Among those eliminated was
the deputy commander of the Quds Force, who directly supervised Hezbollah and
particularly the transfer of weapons from Syria to Lebanon. Thus, it's not
surprising that the Iranians are facing difficulties in trying to concentrate
and command Hezbollah." However, he estimated that Iran may try to reorganize
Hezbollah over the coming months, build a strong command structure, and increase
its grip. "This is the time to exploit the disruptions and strike the
organization as much as possible," Baram argued. According to him, it's
important to hit command structures while Iranian forces are undergoing
reorganization. Professor Baram added interesting information about the Quds
Force's struggle with the assassinations of senior command, which has undermined
its activities and caused fear of crisis. "Recently, Iran has been dealing with
unclear internal challenges in the Quds Force. Ismail Qaani, commander of the
Quds Force, disappeared mysteriously, and for a certain period there was concern
that he was either eliminated or suspected of treason. He reappeared publicly at
the memorial ceremony for the eliminated Quds Force deputy, but then disappeared
again. There's a feeling that the Quds Force is undergoing significant
structural changes."Baram concluded by saying this situation has delayed
Hezbollah's reorganization and emphasized the importance of attacking Hezbollah
in its current state, aiming to disrupt rehabilitation efforts. "Hezbollah
is currently at its weakest point since Khamenei created it in 1982, and we must
exploit this weakness."
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826923
Blinken says ‘good progress’ made toward Lebanon
ceasefire deal
AFP/October 31, 2024
WASHINGTON DC: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that
negotiators have made “good progress” toward a deal that would bring a ceasefire
in Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. The top US diplomat said that Washington was
“working very hard” on concluding arrangements on a deal that would include the
withdrawal of Hezbollah from the border region with Israel. “Based on my recent
trip to the region, and the work that’s ongoing right now, we have made good
progress on those understandings,” Blinken told reporters. “We still have more
work to do,” he said, calling for a “diplomatic resolution, including through a
ceasefire.”Two senior US officials, Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, met
Thursday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said that any deal
on Lebanon must guarantee Israel’s security. Unlike in the year-old war in Gaza,
the US has stopped short of calling for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon and
has largely backed Israeli strikes against Hezbollah, while voicing concern for
the fate of civilians. Blinken called again for implementation of UN Security
Council Resolution 1701, dating from 2006, which calls for the disarmament of
non-state groups in Lebanon and a full Israeli withdrawal from the country.
“It’s important to make sure that we have clarity, both from Lebanon and from
Israel, about what would be required under 1701 to get its effective
implementation — the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the border, the
deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces, the authorities under which they’d be
acting, an appropriate enforcement mechanism,” Blinken said. Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin, speaking alongside Blinken and their South Korean counterparts,
said there was an “opportunity” in Lebanon. “We’re hopeful that we will see
things transition in Lebanon in a not too distant future,” Austin said.
Lebanon ceasefire draft revealed: IDF withdrawal within
a week, US supervision - report
Jerusalem Post/October 28/2024
The main points attributed to this draft outline that from the moment of
signing, UN Resolution 1701 will be recognized and brought into full effect. The
draft of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was revealed on Wednesday
evening by Israeli state broadcaster KAN. The document, allegedly drafted by
Amos Hochstein, has reportedly been presented to Israel's political
establishment. The main points attributed to this draft outline that, from the
moment of signing, UN Resolution 1701 will be recognized and brought into full
effect, specifically that Hezbollah and other armed groups in the area will not
take action against Israel, according to KAN. The report stated that the
Lebanese Armed Forces would be the only armed body in southern Lebanon other
than UNIFIL. Additionally, Israel would not carry out offensive operations in
Lebanon, including those against military and government targets. The Lebanese
government will supervise any weapons sales to Lebanon or weapons production,
the draft added. Additionally, according to the draft, Israel would have to
withdraw from southern Lebanon within one week. It would reportedly be replaced
by the Lebanese Armed Forces, which would be supervised by the US and other
international bodies.
Lebanon’s Berri: Resolution 1701 Stands Unchanged
Beirut: Mohamed ChoucairAsharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
Lebanon is monitoring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response to US
President Joe Biden’s push for a ceasefire in southern Lebanon. Biden has sent
advisors Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk to Tel Aviv to discuss the matter with
Netanyahu, marking what Lebanese officials see as the last chance for progress
before the US presidential election on Nov. 5. Lebanese leaders, including
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, are cautious
about predicting results. Mikati did not comment after his recent meetings with
US advisors. However, Berri highlighted Lebanon’s prior agreement with Hochstein
to a ceasefire, deploying the Lebanese army in the south, and enforcing UN
Resolution 1701. Berri reaffirmed that Lebanon won’t alter these terms, saying,
“What’s agreed is agreed; Resolution 1701 stands unchanged.” The speaker
clarified that Lebanon has fulfilled its commitments and is now waiting for
Netanyahu’s response, noting that Lebanon is ready to implement the ceasefire if
Hochstein can secure Netanyahu’s agreement. “The ball is now in Netanyahu’s
court,” Berri said, pointing out that Netanyahu has previously agreed to and
then withdrawn from ceasefire deals. According to sources, Hezbollah is fully
behind Berri’s mandate for a ceasefire. Hezbollah’s newly appointed
Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, recently confirmed the party’s support.
Qassem is closely following developments with the party’s military leadership,
while Hezbollah’s MPs continue discussions with other blocs to clarify their
position. Lebanese sources stressed that reaching a ceasefire is critical and
must happen as soon as possible, asserting that Netanyahu should not leverage
the situation in Gaza as a pretext to avoid a southern ceasefire. As Biden’s
envoys prepare to meet with Netanyahu, Lebanese officials remain focused on
whether this effort will result in an agreement. The ongoing clashes near the
southern Lebanese town of Khiam, where Hezbollah is actively resisting Israeli
advances, have intensified the situation, making the outcome of these
discussions crucial.
Lebanon PM Says Hopes for Ceasefire With Israel in
'Coming Hours or Days'
Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
Lebanon's prime minister said US envoy Amos Hochstein had signaled during a
phone call Wednesday that a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war was possible
before US elections are held on November 5. "The call today with Hochstein
suggested to me that perhaps we could reach a ceasefire in the coming days,
before the fifth" of November, Najib Mikati said in a televised interview with
Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed. Hochstein was heading to Israel on Wednesday to
discuss conditions for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, State Department spokesman
Matthew Miller told reporters. Hezbollah's new leader Naim Qassem on Wednesday
said the group would agree to a ceasefire with Israel under acceptable terms,
but added that a viable deal has yet to be presented, reported AFP. "We are
doing our best... to have a ceasefire within the coming hours or days," Mikati
told Al-Jadeed, adding that he was "cautiously optimistic". Mikati said
Hezbollah is no longer linking a ceasefire in Lebanon to a truce in Gaza, but
criticized the group over its "late" reversal. Previously, Hezbollah had
repeatedly declared it would stop its attacks on Israel only if a ceasefire was
reached in Gaza. However, Qassem on Wednesday said the group would accept a
ceasefire under conditions deemed "appropriate and suitable", without any
mention of the Palestinian territory. Mikati said a ceasefire would be linked to
the implementation of the United Nations resolution that ended the 2006 war
between Israel and Hezbollah. Security Council Resolution 1701 states that only
the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should be deployed in southern Lebanon,
while demanding the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. "The
Lebanese army is ready to strengthen its presence in southern Lebanon" and
ensure that the only weapons and military infrastructure in the area are those
controlled by the state, Mikati said. He also said he would continue to try to
shield Lebanon's only airport from attacks by Israel. "I can guarantee that we
will not give anyone an excuse to undermine our security or our air traffic,"
Mikati said. Aid deliveries from Iran, Iraq and Algeria can "come by sea", he
said, in order not to give Israel a pretext to launch strikes. Mikati also said
it was too dangerous to try to reopen Lebanon's main land border with Syria,
which was put out of service by an Israeli strike this month. "We sent a
bulldozer to fill the crater at the crossing and it was bombed," Mikati said.
"We will not expose anyone to danger before we have full guarantees."
Israel’s military leaders signal their work in Gaza and
Lebanon is done. Will Netanyahu listen?
Mick Krever, CNN/October 31, 2024
Footage shows devastation after Israeli strike on Gaza marketScroll back up to
restore default view.
In subtle but increasingly vocal ways, Israel’s military leaders are signaling
that the country has achieved all it can militarily in Lebanon and Gaza, and
it’s time for the politicians to strike a deal. It comes as Lebanon’s prime
minister says that a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel could be imminent.
Both candidates for the American presidency have also made clear they do not
want wars in Gaza and Lebanon to be on the agenda when they take office. When
the Israel Defense Forces’ top general sat down with officers in northern Gaza –
who are waging one of the military’s fiercest operations since last year’s
invasion – he went further than ever in suggesting the military phases of both
conflicts should end. “In the north, there’s a possibility of reaching a sharp
conclusion,” Herzi Halevi, Chief of the General Staff, said, referring to the
war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Gaza, he said, “if we take out the northern
Gaza Brigade commander, it’s another collapse…. I don’t know what we’ll
encounter tomorrow, but this pressure brings us closer to more
achievements.”What those achievements should be is the subject of much
consternation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly pledged “absolute
victory.” His defense minister and longtime political tormentor Yoav Gallant has
bristled at that goal. In August, he told a closed-door parliamentary committee
meeting that the idea of “absolute victory” in Gaza was “nonsense,” according to
Israeli media. Gallant’s dim view of Netanyahu’s war goal was made official when
earlier this week he reportedly sent a private memo to the prime minister and
the rest of his cabinet saying that the war had lost its way. “The current
situation in which we operate, without a valid compass and without updated war
objectives, undermines the management of the campaign and cabinet decisions,”
Gallant wrote, according to Israel’s Channel 13, a CNN affiliate.
In Gaza, he wrote, Israel should ensure the release of the remaining hostages,
make sure there is no military threat from Hamas, and promote civilian rule.
That’s a far cry from the existing, maximalist war aim of eliminating Hamas’
military and governance capabilities.
CNN asked the Israeli defense ministry for comment on the memo. A spokesperson
for the prime minister declined to comment. Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister
Najib Mikati said Wednesday he was optimistic for a potential Hezbollah-Israel
ceasefire to be struck “within the next few hours or days,” after speaking with
US envoy Amos Hochstein, who arrived in the region on Thursday. Israel has for
the past month carried out a massive, country-wide bombing campaign in Lebanon,
and killed Hezbollah’s elusive leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In his interview,
Mikati indicated that Hezbollah is no longer insisting that its conflict with
Israel will only cease once the war in Gaza ends. That would allow it to accept
a ceasefire without an end to the Gaza campaign. “There is at the moment a
desire to quit the war in Lebanon while we’re ahead,” a person familiar with the
Israeli government’s thinking told CNN.
Gallant has said Hamas and Hezbollah have now been rendered totally ineffective
as Iranian proxies. “These two organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, that were
groomed for years as a long arm against the State of Israel, are no longer an
effective tool in the hands of Iran,” Gallant said during a memorial service on
Sunday. “We know that some goals cannot be achieved by military action alone,
and thus, we must honor our moral obligations to bring our captives home,
despite the painful compromises involved.”And yet Netanyahu has remained
defiant. When the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, returned from recess this week,
the prime minister seemed to repeat his maximalist goal, and indicated he was
unlikely to accept a conclusion anytime soon: “The absolute victory is an
orderly and consistent work plan that we fulfill step by step,” he said.
Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas are engaged in indirect negotiations in Qatar for
the first time in two months. Netanyahu’s office said on Monday that if a
limited proposal – a short ceasefire in exchange for hostage releases – were
offered, “the Prime Minister would accept it on the spot.” However, a source
familiar with the talks told CNN that Netanyahu continues to refuse to give any
concrete assurances of a pathway to a bigger deal to end the war. “The most
important war goal has not been achieved, which is bringing the hostages home,”
another official familiar with the talks told CNN. “Gaza will not end until the
hostages are home.”
6 Health Workers Killed in Israeli Strikes in South Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
Six Lebanese health workers were killed and four wounded in Israeli strikes
across south Lebanon on Thursday, the health ministry said in a statement. The
strikes killed five paramedics with the Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health
Committee and one with the Amal-linked Risala Scouts, the ministry said.
The total number of health workers killed by Israel since October 2023 rose to
178 and 279 wounded, the ministry added. Israeli attacks killed 45 people in
Lebanon in the past 24 hours, bringing the total death toll to 2,865 since
October 2023, the ministry said in a separate statement.
UN Peacekeeping Mission in South Lebanon Has Recorded over
30 Incidents Resulting in Damage
Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
The UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon says it has recorded over 30
incidents resulting in damage to UN property or premises or injuring
peacekeepers.Andrea Tenenti, spokesman for the mission known as UNIFIL, told a
video press conference from Beirut Wednesday that it attributed about 20 of the
incidents to Israeli military fire or actions, “with seven being clearly
deliberate.”In an incident Tuesday, he said, a rocket likely fired by Hezbollah
or an affiliated group hit UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqura, setting a workshop
on fire, with some peacekeepers suffering minor injuries, according to The
Associated Press. The origin of the fire couldn’t be determined for about a
dozen incidents, he said. “What has been very concerning are incidents where
peacekeepers performing their monitoring tasks, as well as our cameras, lighting
and entire watch towners, have been deliberately targeted,” Tenenti said.He
stressed that the actions of both Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters are
putting peacekeepers in danger, whether through deliberate acts or crossfire.
“Despite a very tense situation, UNIFIL continues to stay in contact with
Lebanese and Israeli authorities urging de-escalation,” he said. Even with the
dramatic surge in exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah in the past few
weeks, Tenenti said UNIFIL has also been working hard behind the scenes to
coordinate the delivery of humanitarian aid by UN agencies and their local
partners.
Khiam: The Center of Arab-Israeli Conflict Faces ‘Fourth
Wave of Destruction’
Beirut: Nazir Rida/Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
Residents of Khiam in southern Lebanon, hit by 12 airstrikes on Wednesday
morning, see the attacks as yet another wave of destruction for a town scarred
by conflict. “Khiam has been devastated repeatedly, enduring pain with each blow
over decades,” residents say. The town has already been destroyed three times
since 1948 and faces new fears amid an intense military campaign and assault
attempts. Khiam, the largest town in the Marjayoun district, houses 35,000
people and over 5,000 homes. Since 2006, it has expanded significantly, becoming
a tourist spot with guesthouses known as “chalets.”Since Oct. 2023, parts of
these buildings, mainly on Khiam’s southern and eastern edges near Israel’s
Metula settlement, have been damaged.
A Historic Staging Point Against Israel
Perched on high ground overlooking the Galilee, Khiam is open from the east,
west, and south, providing a strategic link to the Golan Heights, Jordan, and
northern Israel. The town is known as the “last major Shia community” near
Lebanon’s southern border, neighboring Christian, Druze, and Sunni areas. This
position made Khiam a focal point for Arab fighters against Israel since the
1940s and a regular flashpoint. Historian Dr. Munzer Jaber says Khiam and other
border villages have long faced displacement and Israeli bombardment. In the
1940s, Khiam became a base for the Arab Salvation Army, which gathered
volunteers from southern Lebanon and Syria, including units from Majdal Shams
and Deir ez-Zor, led by Abdul Salam al-Ajili. Since then, Khiam has seen
frequent clashes with Israel due to its proximity to Metula, which Israel
considers a strategic stronghold, Jaber noted to Asharq Al-Awsat. Adding to the
tensions, overlapping property claims among Syrians, Lebanese, Palestinians, and
Jewish residents often lead to disputes. The repeated destruction and conflict
in Khiam have driven waves of migration to Beirut, especially after Palestine
fell, cutting off jobs for southern Lebanese. Key markets in Marjayoun, Bint
Jbeil, and Khiam shut down, leaving the local economy in decline. Khiam lost its
political and economic role until 1965, when the first Palestinian guerrilla
operation against Israel shifted its focus to militant activity. Palestinian and
leftist groups gained influence, sparking local divisions and causing many
residents to leave as Palestinian forces moved in. Jaber told Asharq Al-Awsat
that this conflict created a strong pro-guerrilla movement among Khiam’s youth,
leading to clashes with local leaders. The growing Palestinian presence gave
Israel a reason for airstrikes and security raids, which intensified in late
1973, pushing more residents to flee.
The Khiam Massacre
Israel intensified its military operations in Khiam over the years. In September
1977, Israeli forces entered the town, leading to fierce clashes with the
pro-Israel militia led by Saad Haddad and Lebanese-Palestinian joint forces.
Israel officially occupied Khiam on March 14, 1978, during the first invasion of
southern Lebanon, following three days of heavy bombardment. Just a few days
later, on March 17, Haddad’s militia carried out a massacre, killing 61 people,
the youngest being just 60 years old. Residents reported widespread displacement
and complete destruction of the town.
Ongoing Destruction
For five years, residents did not return, as Khiam became unlivable. After
Israel's occupation, some residents slowly returned as a security zone was
established. The “South Lebanon Army,” led by Antoine Lahad, took over the
notorious Khiam prison. In the 1980s, Israel turned the town into a training
ground for urban warfare, conducting drills that left it in a state of sustained
destruction for 15 years, until Israel withdrew in 2000. After the liberation of
southern Lebanon, Khiam began to expand as residents returned, rebuilding homes
and starting businesses. However, around 40% of these new structures were
destroyed during the 2006 war, marking the third wave of destruction. The
conflict saw Hezbollah destroy several Israeli Merkava tanks in the Khiam
plains. Once again, residents rebuilt, creating a more modern town with new
mansions, schools, and healthcare facilities, making it a key hub in the region.
2023 Conflict
The situation in Khiam is once again dire as Hezbollah launched its war in
support of Gaza on Oct. 8, 2023. Official sources report that by Sept. 23, more
than 550 residential units had been destroyed. Each day, Khiam faces artillery
shelling and Israeli airstrikes, with the frequency of these attacks rising
recently. Israeli forces have begun a ground operation to take control of the
town and its elevated areas.
Israel Warns People to Evacuate from More Areas in East,
South Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
The Israeli military warned people to evacuate from more areas of the eastern
city of Baalbek and south Lebanon, including a built-up Palestinian refugee
camp. Israeli airstrikes, meanwhile, killed at least ten people in different
parts of the country on Thursday. The Rashidiyeh refugee camp near the port city
of Tyre is one of several dating back to the 1948 Mideast war, when hundreds of
thousands of Palestinians fled or were driven out of what is now Israel. Israel
invaded Lebanon at the start of October, after nearly a year of trading fire
with Hezbollah. The group began firing rockets, missiles and drones on northern
Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack triggered the war in Gaza. Iran backs
both groups. Israel has warned people to evacuate from large areas of the
country, including major cities in the south and east. Over a million people
have already fled their homes. Israeli strikes killed seven people in eastern
Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News agency. Another strike
killed a man on a motorcycle on the coastal highway between Tyre and Sidon. The
news agency also reported a strike on a car on a main highway running through
the mountains outside the capital, Beirut. It said the strike in Araya closed
the highway, diverting traffic through nearby villages. Two people were killed
in the attack, media reports said.
A Lebanese Family Planning for a Daughter's Wedding
is Killed in an Israeli Strike on Their Home
Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
The family WhatsApp group chat buzzed with constant messages. Israel was
escalating its airstrikes on villages and towns in southern Lebanon. Everyone
was glued to the news. Reda Gharib woke up uncharacteristically early that day,
Sept. 23. Living a continent away in Senegal, he scrolled through videos and
pictures shared by his sisters and aunts of explosions around their neighborhood
in Tyre, Lebanon’s ancient coastal city. His aunts decided to leave for Beirut.
His father, mother and three sisters had no such plans, The Associated Press
reported. Then his father announced to the group that he had received a call
from the Israeli military to evacuate or risk their lives. After that, the chat
fell silent. Ten minutes later, Gharib called his father. There was no answer.
The Gharibs’ apartment had been directly hit by an Israeli airstrike. The family
had no time to get out. Gharib’s father, Ahmed, a retired Lebanese army officer,
his mother, Hanan, and his three sisters were all killed. “The whole apartment
was gone. It is back to bare bones. As if there was nothing there,” said Gharib,
speaking from the Senegalese capital, Dakar, where he has been living since
2020. The Israeli military said it struck a Hezbollah site hiding rocket
launchers and missiles. Gharib said his family had no connection to Hezbollah.
The direct hit gutted their apartment, while those above and below suffered only
damage, suggesting a specific part of the building was targeted. Gharib said it
was his family's home.
The strike was one of more than 1,600 Israel said it carried out on Sept. 23,
the first day of an intensified bombardment of Lebanon it has waged for the past
month. More than 500 people were killed that day, a casualty figure not observed
in Gaza on a single day until the second week, said Emily Tripp, director of
London-based Airwars, a conflict monitoring group. Israel has vowed to cripple
Hezbollah to put an end to more than a year of cross-border fire by the
Iranian-backed militant group that began the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023,
attack triggered the war in Gaza. It says its strikes are targeting Hezbollah’s
members and infrastructure. But there are also hundreds of civilians among the
more than 2,000 people killed in the bombardment over the past month — often
entire families killed in their homes. Since then, the street where the Gharib
family lived — an area of shops, residential buildings and offices of
international agencies in Tyre’s al-Housh district — has been battered with
repeated airstrikes and is now deserted. Gharib, 27, a pilot and entrepreneur,
moved to Senegal in search of a better future but always planned to return to
Lebanon to start a family. He was close to his three sisters, the keeper of
their secrets and best friend, he said. Growing up, their father was often away,
so he and his mother took charge of family affairs. The last time he visited his
family was in May 2023, when his sister Maya, an engineering student, got
engaged. She had planned to marry on Oct. 12. But as tensions with Israel grew
in September, Gharib's plans to come home for the wedding were uncertain. She
told him she would put it off until he could get there. After the strike, her
fiancé, also an army officer, found her body and those of the rest of her family
in a hospital morgue in Tyre. “She was not destined to have her wedding. We
paraded her as a bride to paradise instead,” Gharib said. On the day the wedding
was to have taken place he posted pictures of his sister, including her wedding
dress. His sister Racha, 24, was about to graduate as a dentist and planned to
open her own clinic. “She loved life,” he said.His youngest sister, Nour, 20,
was studying to be a dietitian and prepping to be a personal trainer. Gharib
called her the “laughter of the house.” There is nothing left of his family now
except for a few pictures on his phone and on social media posts.“I am so hurt.
But I know the hurt will be hardest when I come to Lebanon,” Gharib said. “Not
even a picture of them remains hanging on the walls. Their clothes are not
there. Their smell is no longer in the house. The house is totally gone.""They
took my family and the memories of them.”
Hezbollah reportedly agrees to withdraw beyond Litani River, Lebanese reports
claim
Ana Bersky/Jerusalem Post/October 31/2024
Hezbollah agrees to withdraw beyond Litani River as US pushes for pre-election
deal, but Israeli officials remain skeptical
Despite Hezbollah’s declarations throughout the war, the terrorist organization
has agreed to drop its demands and is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River,
Lebanon's MTV website, which is associated with Hezbollah opponents, reported
Wednesday night. The report indicated that Hezbollah agreed to establish a
demilitarized zone, with all its weapons to be moved beyond the river. It was
also claimed that Hezbollah no longer insists on being directly connected to
events in Gaza. MTV Lebanon noted that a three-day ceasefire draft is being
discussed in Lebanon, and American officials are expected to present it to
Israel in the coming days. It was also noted that Amos Hochstein, Biden's envoy
to the region, told Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati that he sensed a change
in Netanyahu's position, which gave him hope regarding the contacts. Regarding
this change, Hochstein said he would travel to Israel tomorrow. However,
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted in Arab media saying, "It's
out of the question to change the wording of UN Resolution 1701 even by one
word. The ball is now in Netanyahu's court. I've completed all points related to
the ceasefire, army deployment, and implementation of Resolution 1701. We're
waiting for Hochstein's understandings with Netanyahu." Additionally, Lebanon's
Prime Minister addressed the war that began with Hezbollah's terrorist
organization firing over a year ago, saying, "We hope that within hours or days
a ceasefire agreement will be reached." Senior Israeli sources told Maariv on
Wednesday that the American administration is very active in both directions: in
efforts to advance negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza, and
also in attempting to bring about a ceasefire arrangement in the north.
This, according to the sources, stems from the desire to achieve significant
progress before the US elections on November 5. American sources told Maariv
that the Israeli side has shown willingness and interest in moving forward with
an agreement in the north. Still, it's doubtful that the work will be completed
before the elections.
The proposed deal
According to reports, White House envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in
Israel and Lebanon in the coming days, hoping to reach final agreements before
the US elections. Under the reported agreement, northern residents would return
to their homes, while most IDF forces would withdraw from Lebanon. On the other
hand, government sources express skepticism. According to these sources, "Israel
will not back down from any of the demands it set as conditions for reaching an
arrangement. At this point, we don't identify Hezbollah's willingness to agree
to the outline and conditions we presented, with all due respect to the American
administration's investment and effort." As mentioned, Israel estimates that the
northern arrangement won't be achieved by the US elections, and after the
elections, the administration is expected to apply massive pressure on Israel,
including measures at the UN and in weapons supply.
Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, made a firm statement to city residents
expressing his opposition to immediate return. "They won't buy us with money
that will run out quickly," Stern said, "Don't return until we tell you to
return and not a minute before."
Moshe Davidovich, head of Mateh Asher Regional Council and chairman of the
Confrontation Line forum, also responded to the diplomatic talks, saying, "I
don't interfere with the IDF's military considerations, but at the political
level – the real threat to our residents hasn't been removed! There's direct
anti-tank missile fire on border communities, and it's still happening."
Following Monday's approval of the UNRWA ban laws, which passed with an
overwhelming majority of coalition and opposition Knesset members, Israel
estimates that the American administration won't be satisfied with criticism and
condemnations against the action but is expected to implement ‘consequences.’
The assessment is that what's being considered in Washington is passing a
binding resolution in the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire
between Israel and Hezbollah.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been talking about the need and intention
to raise such a resolution in the UN Security Council for some time. Israel has
estimated that so far, the initiative hasn't been advanced at the request of the
American administration, which isn't interested in sharp measures before the
elections. According to an Israeli source, "The assessment is that we'll see the
implications of approving the UNRWA laws after November 5. With no low
probability, after the elections, the Americans will give the green light to
advance the ceasefire in the north, including a binding Security Council
resolution. Ahead of this move, President Biden's special envoy, Amos Hochstein,
has again arrived in the region.""What's being advanced and what will likely
come up is what's called 'Resolution 1701+', giving Israel some freedom of
action to prevent Hezbollah from rearming. There's an assessment that shortly
after the elections, an effort will be made to impose a ceasefire in the north
on Israel based on Resolution 1701+, with the next threat being a weapons
embargo."
Irish peacekeeping troops escape injury after Lebanon
camp struck by rocket
David Young and Cate McCurry, PA/PA Media: UK News/October 31, 2024
A military camp in southern Lebanon where Irish peacekeeping troops are based
has been struck by a rocket, the Chief of Staff of Ireland’s Defence Forces has
said. Lieutenant General Sean Clancy said all troops in Camp Shamrock at the
time of the strike on Wednesday afternoon are safe and well, with the Katyusha
rocket landing in an unoccupied area of the base. Irish premier Simon Harris
described the incident as “extremely serious”.Lt Gen Clancy said the rocket was
travelling north to south, towards Israel, when it came down. He said it was
unclear whether it fell or was taken down by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system.
Camp Shamrock, known as United Nations Post 2-45, is a short distance from the
Israeli border and is close to areas controlled by Hezbollah militants. There
are around 350 soldiers currently deployed with the United Nations Interim Force
in Lebanon (Unifil) carrying out peacekeeping duties.
Lt Gen Clancy confirmed the incident during a Defence Forces event in Co
Westmeath on Thursday and said the rocket had caused minimal damage. He said: “I
can confirm that yesterday afternoon there was a Katyusha rocket that landed
within 2-45, this was by an armed element obviously, our assessment is it was
travelling north to south into Israel. “A lot of these are undirected, unguided
and therefore unpredictable rockets, and they have been known to fall or been
taken down by the Iron Dome, we haven’t assessed which or whether that is right
now. “But it did fall in an unoccupied area of the camp itself. It caused
minimal damage on the ground.”He said bomb disposal officers sealed off the area
on Wednesday night and dampened the ground before making the device safe on
Thursday morning. “All personnel are safe and well, and, of course, force
protection is a priority for us and all the precautions we take and have been
taking, which are working quite well, worked effectively on this occasion,” the
chief of staff added. Lt Gen Clancy and Ireland’s deputy premier and Minister
for Defence Micheal Martin participated in a military event at Custume Barracks
in Athlone on Thursday for the members of the 125th Battalion of the Defence
Forces who are preparing to take over from their counterparts in Lebanon when
Irish troops on peacekeeping duties are next rotated. Mr Martin said the
incident “illustrates the risks are there” for Irish peacekeepers.
“There’s no hiding from that fact. We are in a very challenging environment and
that is why force protection is extremely important,” he said, adding that the
troops were at ‘Level 2’ when the strike occurred. “It is a much more
challenging environment now than it perhaps would have been, that is why we are
pushing very strongly for a de-escalation in the region that is absolutely
essential for the people of the region and also for the world. “We cannot
understate the importance of all sides pulling back from the brink now and
engineering a ceasefire and working through a peaceful path. We’re very
conscious of the risks involved.”Taoiseach Mr Harris said he was thankful no-one
had been hurt in the rocket strike. “In relation to Camp Shamrock, I have been
kept informed of it through yesterday evening and, indeed, into today,” he told
reporters in Co Kildare on Thursday.
“This is an extremely serious situation, whilst it seems what happens is this –
that a rocket was fired, that rocket was taken down by what they call the Iron
Dome, and part of that rocket then fell on, thankfully, an unoccupied part of
Camp Shamrock, home to our Irish peacekeepers, and thankfully nobody has been
hurt or injured, and thankfully all our peacekeepers are accounted for and safe,
and that is a good thing.” Mr Harris said there was an obligation in
international law to protect and not target peacekeepers. “What we have seen in
the last number of days, on many occasions throughout the Unifil mission, and
what we saw yesterday in relation to Camp Shamrock, is a situation where even if
peacekeepers aren’t being actively targeted, certainly enough steps are not
being taken to protect them,” he said. “Therefore, I really reiterate my call in
relation to the need for people to respect international law and respect the
specific protections that are provided to peacekeepers in relation to that.”
Israel, Lebanon may be nearing potential agreements to end Hezbollah war -
analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 28/2024
Leaked Lebanon deal draft emerges as Gaza talks advance, but experts warn
against repeat of past failures.
A leaked draft of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was broadcast
by Israel’s Kan on Wednesday. The draft is an “announcement of a cessation of
hostilities and related commitments” that could happen between Lebanon and
Israel.
At the same time, there is talk of a potential ceasefire in Gaza. This is one of
the first times since the war began that there has appeared to be movement on
two fronts. This presents Israel with a unique opportunity. However, it also has
potential pitfalls. A year of war has been difficult for Israel.
Israel’s enemies have suffered serious losses. It’s possible that a deal with
Lebanon could also lead to a ceasefire in Gaza. However, the terrorist groups
will still look to recover in the wake of any deal. The deal with Lebanon would
appear to mean the Lebanese Armed Forces would deploy to southern Lebanon and
that Israel would withdraw from Lebanon. The agreement is not with Hezbollah but
with Lebanon, and thus, it asks Lebanon to do what it has refused to do since
2006.
The agreement references Lebanon confiscating weapons from “armed groups.” This
is the Orwellian term employed to hide the word “Hezbollah.” Hezbollah had
150,000 rockets before the war began and has stockpiled more arms than many
small countries over the last decades. Yet the wording “armed groups” is always
used in these documents so that a country such as Lebanon doesn’t actually have
to fulfill the agreement. One of the pitfalls of the agreement is that it
doesn’t spell out how exactly Lebanon will behave differently than it did after
2006. The Lebanese armed forces have never been willing to confront Hezbollah.
Using terms like “armed groups” means that the Lebanese army can claim they
didn’t see any “armed groups” because they view Hezbollah as the “resistance.”
Nevertheless, there is hope that Hezbollah will be willing to withdraw from the
border. The group has suffered blows since the Israeli Northern Arrows operation
began on September 23. The group has lost some part of its arsenal. Israel’s
Defense Minister has said it may have lost up to 80 percent of its rockets. This
would leave it with some 30,000 rockets, still a significant arsenal. It also
has its precision attack drones. Hezbollah may have lost 1,000 to 2,000 fighters
in the war. It is never clear if the estimates are verifiable. It has also lost
many bunkers and storage facilities near the border. This deprives it of some of
its anti-tank missiles and firing positions. Along with the reports of the
potential ceasefire, there is hope that Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati is
enthusiastic about a deal. There is no doubt the US administration wants a win
before leaving office. Regardless of who wins the US election, the Biden
administration is now wrapping up its legacy. Sending envoys such as Amos
Hochstein or Brett McGurk to the region this week is a sign the White House
takes this seriously. However, one might wonder how Hochstein could achieve a
deal when he pushed for the maritime deal in 2022 with Lebanon that led directly
to Hezbollah escalation. These kinds of deals with Lebanon have not had the
desired results in the past. There are other elements at play. Hezbollah has a
new leader named Naim Qassem. He has been a second in command for Hezbollah for
decades and, therefore, is familiar with the group’s workings and losses. He may
want to shape his legacy and also save his own head by agreeing to a ceasefire.
His successors have both been killed, including Hezbollah’s long-time leader
Hassan Nasrallah.
The Iranian Tasnim New
A report at Iranian Tasnim News says that various Palestinian factions are also
weighing a potential ceasefire. However, the main message from these groups,
such as the PFLP and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, is that a ceasefire must meet
their needs. They don’t say exactly what these “conditions” are, but they imply
that they will want to feel they have come out of a year of war with some kind
of claim of victory. What they mean is they think having survived the war is
enough. PIJ and PFLP haven’t suffered as serious blows as Hamas. Reports say
that around 17,000 or more terrorists have been eliminated in Gaza. Thousands
remain.When Hamas began the war, Iran prodded Hezbollah to join the war. Qassem,
the new head of Hezbollah, told NBC News in November 2023 that "Hezbollah
participates [in the war] for the sake of lowering the pressure on Gaza.” Now,
Gaza has been largely ruined in the war, and Hezbollah has suffered blows. If
both Hezbollah and Hamas assume they can achieve a ceasefire, then this might
remove the conditions that brought Hezbollah into the war in the first place.
Iranian state media is also reporting on the potential ceasefire. IRNA noted
that “Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati has expressed hope that a ceasefire
will be established in his country in the next few hours.” Lebanon claims it is
ready to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701. However, that resolution
has existed since 2006, and Lebanon has never implemented it. Instead, Lebanon
let Hezbollah grow from a group that had 13,000 rockets to 150,000 rockets.
Hezbollah has exponentially expanded since 2006. It’s possible that Lebanon
“wants” 1701 to return because, under 1701, it built Hezbollah into a massive
war machine, threatened Israel, and caused a massive war.
It is important that Lebanon is paying some lip service to a ceasefire via
Iranian media. This shows that Iran may also favor a ceasefire. The question is
whether Iran thinks it has benefited from this year-long war. Has Iran preserved
Hezbollah and Hamas so that it can help them recover in the wake of the war?
Lebanon’s Prime Minister says "a ceasefire must be established with American
guarantees.” Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has also said there will
be no change in the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and that it must be
implemented word for word. This would seem to imply a possible return to 2007
and a return of Hezbollah to the border with UNIFIL and the Lebanese Armed
Forces only pretending to implement the resolution. The reason it implies a
return to 2007 is that Israel has wanted an improved version of 1701 that gives
Israel more freedom of action to stop Hezbollah from re-arming.
While it’s possible a two-front war could be ended by agreements, there are many
questions about implementation and also about how Iran or the groups it backs
will respond. Hezbollah and Hamas likely want a break from the fighting to
regroup. However, if they regroup as they have in the past, then it’s not clear
how this year of war will have long-term strategic shifts that differ from the
outcome of the 2006 war in Lebanon or the 2009 or 2014 war in Gaza.
Seven killed in Israel in deadliest Hezbollah rocket
strikes in months
David Gritten - BBC News/October 31, 2024
Two separate Hezbollah rocket attacks have killed seven people in northern
Israel, authorities say - the deadliest day of such strikes in months. An
Israeli farmer and four foreign agricultural workers were killed when rockets
landed near Metula, a town on the border with Lebanon, Foreign Minister Israel
Katz said. Later, an Israeli woman and her adult son were killed in an olive
grove near Kibbutz Afek, on the outskirts of the coastal city of Haifa.
Hezbollah said it had fired barrages of rockets towards the Krayot area north of
Haifa and at Israeli forces south of the Lebanese town of Khiam, which is across
the border from Metula. The Israeli military identified two projectiles crossing
from Lebanon and falling in an open area near Metula on Thursday morning. The
Israeli farmer who was killed was named by local media as Omer Weinstein, a
46-year-old father-of-four from nearby Kibbutz Dafna.
According to Haaretz, four foreign workers who were killed were all Thai
nationals. A fifth foreign worker was seriously injured by shrapnel. Videos
posted online showed them being transferred by helicopter to the Rambam Health
Care Campus in Haifa. Haaretz said Mr Weinstein and the foreign workers were in
an agricultural field near the border fence at the time of the attack.It cited a
member of the local emergency response team as saying the Israeli military had
permitted them to enter the area despite Metula being inside a closed military
zone. The military established the zone at the end of September, just before it
launched a ground invasion of Lebanon with the aim of destroying Hezbollah
weapons and infrastructure. Israeli first responders and security forces in an
olive grove near Haifa, northern Israel, where a Hezbollah rocket attack killed
two people (31 October 2024) Thursday’s second rocket attack reportedly hit an
agricultural area near Kibbutz Afek, which is about 65km (40 miles) south-west
of Metula and 28km from the Lebanese border.
The military said a total of 55 projectiles were fired towards the Western
Galilee region, where the kibbutz is located, as well as the Central Galilee and
Upper Galilee in the early afternoon. Some of the projectiles were intercepted
and others fell in open areas, it added.
According to Haaretz, 60-year-old Mina Hasson and her 30-year-old son, Karmi,
were killed by a rocket that hit an olive grove where they were picking olives.
A 70-year-old man was also lightly injured by shrapnel and taken to Rambam
hospital, according to the Magen David Adom ambulance service. "We were called
to the olive grove and saw a man in his 30s lying on the ground, unconscious,”
MDA paramedics Mazor and Yishai Levy told the Jerusalem Post. “We began
resuscitation efforts while conducting further searches, during which we located
another casualty, also in critical condition with multi-system injuries. We
provided her with medical treatment and performed resuscitation, but
unfortunately, we had to pronounce both of them dead," they said. Meanwhile, the
head of the Irish military said a UN peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon that
houses Irish troops was hit by a rocket fired towards Israel on Wednesday night.
The rocket landed inside an unoccupied area of Camp Shamrock, which is 7km (4
miles) from the Israeli border, causing minimal damage on the ground and no
casualties, Lt Gen Sean Clancy said.Irish premier Simon Harris said: "Thankfully
everyone is safe but it is completely unacceptable that this happened.
Peacekeepers are protected under international law and the onus is on all sides
to ensure that protection.”
US envoys in push for Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
The deadly rocket attacks in northern Israel came as two US special envoys met
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem to discuss a possible ceasefire
deal to end the war with Hezbollah. Netanyahu told Amos Hochstein and Brett
McGurk that the main issue was what he called Israel's ability to “thwart any
threat to its security from Lebanon in a way that will return our residents
safely to their homes”, his office said in a statement. Israel went on the
offensive against Hezbollah - which it proscribes as a terrorist organisation -
after almost a year of cross-border fighting sparked by the war in Gaza. It said
it wanted to ensure the safe return of tens of thousands of residents of
northern Israeli border areas displaced by rocket attacks, which Hezbollah
launched in support of Palestinians the day after its ally Hamas’s deadly attack
on Israel on 7 October 2023.
More than 2,800 people have been killed in Lebanon since then, including 2,200
in the past five weeks, and 1.2 million others displaced, according to Lebanese
authorities. Israeli authorities say more than 60 people have been killed by
Hezbollah rocket, drone, and missile attacks in northern Israel and the occupied
Golan Heights.
A woman was reportedly killed in an Israeli strike in the Kayyal area of Baalbek
[AFP]
Earlier on Thursday, the Israeli military said troops were continuing operations
inside southern Lebanon and that aircraft had struck dozens of Hezbollah targets
throughout the country. Lebanon’s health ministry meanwhile said Israeli strikes
had killed six paramedics in three southern towns. Four from the
Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Society’s Civil Defence branch, which
provides emergency services, were killed when Israeli forces targeted a
gathering point at Derdghaya junction, it said. A fifth IHS paramedic was killed
in an air strike on a vehicle in Deir al-Zahrani, while a strike in Zefta killed
a paramedic from the Islamic Risala Scout Association, which is affiliated to
the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement, according to the ministry. There was no
immediate comment from the Israeli military. But dozens of paramedics and other
emergency workers have been killed and injured since it intensified its air
campaign against Hezbollah five weeks ago. The military has previously accused
Hezbollah of using ambulances to transport weapons and fighters. The IHS has
denied having ties to military operations. There were also fresh Israeli strikes
near Baalbek, in the eastern Bekaa Valley, a day after the Israeli military
ordered the evacuation of the entire city and two neighbouring towns. Lebanon’s
state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported that a woman was killed in a
strike in the Kayyal area. Another six people were killed when a house was
bombed in Maqna, which is 5km north-east of Baalbek but was not included in the
evacuation zone, it said.
Breaking the silence: New voices and shifting power in Lebanon
Tolik Piflaks/allisraelnews/ Published: October 30, 2024
https://allisrael.com/breaking-the-silence-new-voices-and-shifting-power-in-lebanon
Once known as the "Paris of the Middle East," Lebanon stood as a beacon of
cultural sophistication, religious coexistence, and intellectual freedom in the
region. Its capital, Beirut, was more than just a city - it was a symbol of
cosmopolitan life in the Arab world, where cafes buzzed with political
discourse, universities fostered critical thinking, and a diverse population
coexisted in relative harmony. Banking, tourism, and cultural exchange
flourished, making Lebanon a bridge between East and West.
This vibrant past stands in stark contrast to recent decades, where external
manipulation, primarily that of Iran and Syria, internal strife, and the
suffocating grip of Hezbollah's influence have muted much of this open dialogue.
However, since the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in
October 2023, a remarkable shift has occurred in Lebanon's public discourse. As
Israel's military response has exposed Hezbollah's vulnerabilities and the high
cost of its adventurism to Lebanese society, previously suppressed voices have
begun to emerge.
What makes this change particularly significant is not just the content of the
discussions, but the very fact that they're happening at all – voices that would
have been silenced by fear of Hezbollah's reprisals mere months ago are now
speaking openly about the organization's responsibility for Lebanon's
deteriorating situation.
From Christian majority to Hezbollah's ascendancy
Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanon represents one of the most successful examples
of a non-state actor transforming into a state-within-a-state. The
organization's power structure was built on three pillars: its deep integration
with the Shiite population, its military capabilities that often exceeded those
of the Lebanese state, and its ability to manipulate Lebanon's sectarian
political system.
Lebanon's political landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation since its
independence. The country was originally established under a French mandate with
a Christian majority and a power-sharing agreement that reflected this
demographic reality. Christians, particularly Maronites, were the dominant
political force, holding the presidency and key positions in government.
However, demographic shifts, emigration, and civil war fundamentally altered
this balance.
The Christian population, which once formed a majority in Lebanon, has
significantly declined through waves of emigration during and after the civil
war. While exact numbers are politically sensitive and disputed, estimates
suggest the Christian population has dropped from around 60% in the 1940s to
approximately 30-35% today. This exodus was particularly pronounced during the
1975-1990 civil war and the subsequent years of Syrian occupation.
Hezbollah's ascent was methodically executed through several strategies:
1. Social Integration: The organization embedded itself deeply within the Shiite
community by providing essential services the state failed to deliver. This
included healthcare, education, and social welfare programs, creating a
dependency relationship that translated into political loyalty.
2. Military Dominance: By maintaining an armed force that grew more powerful
than Lebanon's national army, Hezbollah could enforce its will through implicit
or explicit threats of force. The group maintained this military capability
under the pretext of "resistance" against Israel.
3. Political Manipulation: Taking advantage of Lebanon's confessional political
system, Hezbollah built alliances with other parties, particularly Michel Aoun's
Free Patriotic Movement, giving it effective veto power over government
decisions and control over key state institutions.
Voices of change across communities
The recent shifting dynamics have encouraged diverse voices to emerge across
Lebanon's religious and social spectrum. Leading this wave of fresh dialogue is
Lebanese filmmaker Youssef El-Khoury, whose bold statements as a Christian
critic of Hezbollah have captured attention across the region. El-Khoury has
notably introduced the concept of "Pax Israeliana" to describe a potential new
era for Lebanon. In his controversial statements, he referred to the Palestinian
cause as "fake," arguing that Lebanon has been destroyed for "an entity that
never existed." He has directly challenged Hezbollah's influence, criticizing
its leader Hassan Nasrallah for what El-Khoury describes as polluting "the
Lebanese mind, history, and heritage." His use of the term "Pax Israeliana,"
echoing historical concepts like Pax Romana or Pax Americana, represents a
dramatic break from traditional Lebanese discourse about Israel.
The discourse extends beyond individual voices to encompass broader political
movements. Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces party, has
taken a strong stance against Hezbollah's unilateral actions, specifically
condemning the group for opening a front with Israel to back Hamas, arguing that
these actions have harmed Lebanon without making any impact on Israel's
operations in Gaza.
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai has emerged as a powerful voice against forces
seeking to destabilize Lebanon from within. As the spiritual leader of the
Maronite Church, his denunciation of attempts to drag Lebanon into war carries
significant weight across religious communities. His position as a lodestar for
many Lebanese Christians has made his statements particularly influential in
shaping public opinion.
Shifting perspectives across religious lines
The Christian community's evolving stance represents just one facet of a broader
transformation in Lebanese society. Within the Sunni community, there's a
growing questioning of the wisdom of supporting external causes at the expense
of Lebanon's stability. This shift is particularly significant given the
historically moderate stance of Sunnis during the Lebanese Civil War, where they
refused to build militias or get involved militarily in the Lebanese conflict.
Even within the Shia community, traditionally Hezbollah's base of support, there
are signs of growing discontent as economic hardships lead many to prioritize
stability over regional conflicts. While this dissent remains relatively muted
due to Hezbollah's strong influence in Shia areas, the increasing economic
pressures have begun to strain even this traditionally solid support base.
The Lebanese diaspora, less constrained by local pressures and often viewing the
situation through an international lens, has become increasingly vocal. Their
perspectives, shaped by experiences in Western democracies and unencumbered by
direct threats from local armed groups, often advocate for more dramatic changes
in Lebanon's approach to regional relations and internal governance.
Current shifts in power dynamics
Recent events suggest Hezbollah's grip on power may be weakening:
1. Economic Crisis Impact: Lebanon's economic collapse has severely strained
Hezbollah's ability to maintain its social services network, weakening its hold
over its core constituency.
2. Military Challenges: Recent confrontations with Israel have exposed
limitations in Hezbollah's military capabilities, diminishing its image of
invincibility.
3. Political Realignment: Christian parties that previously aligned with
Hezbollah, notably parts of the Free Patriotic Movement, are beginning to
distance themselves from the organization.
The role of social media and new public square
The rise of social media platforms has created new spaces for Lebanese citizens
to express previously suppressed views. On platforms like Reddit and Twitter,
discussions among Lebanese users reveal a complex range of opinions about peace,
stability, and Hezbollah's role in their country. Many express a desire for
economic prosperity and regional stability, with some acknowledging that
weakening Hezbollah could benefit Lebanon in the long run. These digital forums
have become a modern version of Beirut's historic cafes, where ideas can flow
more freely than in traditional public spaces.
Economic reality as a catalyst for change
Lebanon's severe economic crisis has become a powerful catalyst for changing
attitudes. The country's financial collapse has forced many Lebanese to
reevaluate long-held positions through a more practical lens. The prospect of
economic cooperation with Israel, once taboo to even discuss, is now being
examined more openly, particularly in business circles and among younger
Lebanese professionals.
The banking sector, once the pride of Lebanon and a symbol of its role as a
regional financial hub, has been decimated. This decline has led to increasing
questions about the cost of isolation from potential regional trading partners.
Many Lebanese now openly discuss how the country's enforced isolation from
certain economies, particularly Israel's dynamic tech sector, has contributed to
its economic stagnation.
The Palestinian factor
The Palestinian issue has been another crucial element in Lebanon's complex
political equation. Lebanon hosts the highest percentage of Palestinians living
in camps (55% or 200,000 people), with conditions in these camps remaining grim
due to discriminatory official policies. Lebanese authorities have long
considered Palestinians a threat to the sensitive balance of religious and
ethnic communities in their country. This situation has contributed to the
complex web of tensions that Hezbollah has exploited to maintain its influence.
Looking to the Future
As Lebanon stands at this crossroads, the question isn't just about its
relationship with Israel or Hezbollah's role in society. It's about whether
Lebanon can reclaim its heritage as the Middle East's forum for free thought and
open dialogue – a place where different perspectives can coexist and complex
issues can be discussed without fear of reprisal.
The emergence of these new voices, however tentative, offers hope that Lebanon
might once again become a place where ideas flow freely and where different
visions of the future can be debated openly. While the path forward remains
uncertain, the very existence of these discussions suggests that the spirit of
the "Paris of the Middle East" hasn't been entirely extinguished – it has merely
been waiting for the right moment to reemerge.
The real test will be whether these emerging voices can translate into concrete
political and social change in a country where armed militias still hold more
power than state institutions. The challenges are formidable: entrenched
interests backed by weapons and foreign support; deeply rooted regional power
politics; and decades of sectarian divisions that have repeatedly torn the
country apart. While new voices calling for change offer a glimmer of hope,
Lebanon's history suggests that the path from voiced dissent to actual reform is
fraught with danger. The country's traditional openness to dialogue, even if
temporarily resurfacing, must contend with the harsh reality that words alone
cannot match the power of guns, foreign interests, and deeply embedded sectarian
structures that have repeatedly thwarted attempts at genuine reform.
Tolik Piflaks
Tolik is an Israeli producer and screenwriter with a diverse career in the
Israeli media. He has written for numerous popular Israeli television shows and
contributed to various TV networks and newspapers, and has a background in
screenwriting, copywriting, and advertising.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 31- November
01/2024
Iran preparing strike on Israel from
Iraqi territory within days, Axios reports
Reuters/October 31, 2024
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi
territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election on
Nov. 5, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two unidentified Israeli sources. The
attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones
and ballistic missiles, the Axios report added. The report said that carrying
out the attack through pro-Iran militias in Iraq could be an attempt by Tehran
to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran. Israel and
Iran have engaged in a series of tit-for-tat military strikes, part of broader
Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza. On Saturday, Israeli military
jets struck missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran in
retaliation for Tehran's Oct. 1 barrage of more than 200 missiles against
Israel. A spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday Tehran would
"use all available tools" to respond to the Israeli strikes.
Netanyahu: Israel Today Has More Freedom of Action in
Iran Than Ever
Asharq Al Awsat/October 31/2024
Israel is able to reach anywhere in Iran should the need arise, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday.Netanyahu, in a speech to new military
officers, said that Israel has unprecedented freedom of action following its
recent airstrikes against Iran. "Israel today has more freedom of action in Iran
than ever. We can reach any place in Iran as necessary," Netanyahu said. "The
supreme goal I gave to the Israel Defense Forces and the security branches is to
prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon." Israel attacked military targets
in Iran with pre-dawn airstrikes Saturday in retaliation for the barrage of
ballistic missiles Iran fired on Israel earlier this month. It was the first
time Israel’s military has openly attacked Iran.Israel is widely thought to be
behind a limited airstrike in April near a major air base in Iran that hit the
radar system for a Russian-made air defense battery. Iran had earlier fired a
wave of missiles and drones at Israel, causing minimal damage, after two Iranian
generals were killed in an apparent Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic
post in Syria.
Pope Francis meets wounded Israeli soldier, Sheba
Medical Center leaders at Vatican
Jerusalem Post/October 31/2024
A Vatican official arranged the encounter in Sheba, where he met with civilians
and soldiers injured in the ongoing conflict, including Alon Kaminer, an Israeli
soldier. In a meeting at the Vatican in Rome, Alon Kaminer, a wounded Israeli
soldier currently recovering at Sheba, along with Sheba Medical Center’s
Director General Prof, Yitshak Kreiss, Yoel Har-Even, Director of Sheba Global,
had a private audience with Pope Francis on Wednesday morning. The encounter was
arranged following a recent visit by a Vatican official to Sheba, during which
he met with civilians and soldiers injured in the ongoing conflict, including
Kaminer. Pope Francis extended his blessings to Kaminer during their meeting in
Rome, expressing solidarity and compassion. During the audience, Prof. Kreiss
shared with Pope Francis the mission of Sheba Medical Center, describing it as a
"hospital of peace and innovation" dedicated to restoring the lives of war
casualties. He highlighted Sheba’s role as a bridge between nations, symbolizing
unity and humanitarian values through its work. Prof. Kreiss also thanked Pope
Francis for his advocacy in seeking the release of hostages held in Gaza,
acknowledging the Pope’s efforts to foster peace. Kreiss proposed expanding
collaboration between Sheba Medical Center and the Holy See, underscoring the
importance of shared values in pursuing healing and compassion.
Joint intelligence operation uncovers Israeli agents for Iran, including
attempted assassin
Jerusalem Post/October 31/2024
An indictment was also filed against a Bnei Brak resident who was accused of
following an Israeli nuclear scientist at the direction of Iranian agents. A
joint operation between the Shin Bet (ISA), the Police's Unit of International
Crime Investigations (Yahbal), and Lahav 433 Cyber Unit uncovered another
Iranian intelligence network operating to recruit and activate Israeli citizens
as spies for the Islamic Republic, the Israel Police announced on Thursday
morning. Investigations led authorities to arrest Rafael and Lala Gulayev, both
32, from Lod, who allegedly completed targeted recruitment assignments on Iran's
behalf of Israelis whose families came from the Caucasus region. The
investigation revealed that Elkhan Agayev, a 56-year-old Azerbaijani national
working on behalf of Iranian agents, recruited the Gulayevs. At Agayev’s
instruction, the couple reportedly conducted surveillance on sensitive security
sites in Israel, including the Mossad headquarters. Series of attempts against
Israel. Additionally, an indictment was filed Thursday morning against Bnei Brak
resident Asher Binyamin Weiss, who was accused of following an Israeli nuclear
scientist at the direction of Iranian agents. Weiss allegedly received
instructions from these agents to assassinate the scientist. Weiss faces charges
of contacting a foreign agent, providing information to the enemy, and
obstructing justice. “These cases add to a series of thwarted attempts exposed
in recent weeks, during which Israeli citizens operated by Iranian intelligence
elements were arrested," a senior Shin Bet official stated. "The investigations
once again reveal the efforts of Iranian intelligence to recruit and exploit
Israeli citizens for espionage and terrorist activities in Israel.”Rafael
Gulayev also allegedly gathered intelligence on an academic at the Institute for
National Security Studies (INSS) who had been flagged as a target for Iranian
interests. The couple was also asked to seek out an assassin for the individual.
An indictment is set to be filed against the couple on Thursday.“The Israeli
Police, in collaboration with Shin Bet and other security agencies, will
continue to operate tirelessly to detect and prevent activities that threaten
our citizens," a senior police official said. "We will take decisive action
against those unscrupulous individuals collaborating with hostile entities and
endangering public safety.”
Israel breaks up another Iran spy ring, security
services say
Jonathan Saul/JERUSALEM (Reuters)/October 31, 2024
Israeli security forces have broken up a suspected spy ring inside Israel that
was working on behalf of Iranian intelligence - the latest such espionage group
in weeks to be announced, the Shin Bet and police said on Thursday. In the new
incident, an Israeli couple from the town of Lod near Tel Aviv were arrested for
gathering intelligence about national infrastructure and security sites
including the Mossad spy agency headquarters, as well as surveillance of a
female academic, the Shin Bet security service and the police said. The ring was
part of efforts by Iran to recruit people who had originated in the Caucasus
region, they said. "These incidents join a series of thwarted attempts, that
have been revealed in recent weeks, in which Israeli citizens were arrested for
working on behalf of Iranian intelligence agents and performed specific missions
on their behalf," a Shin Bet source said. The investigation showed that one of
the couple was tasked with tracking an academic target at Israel's Institute for
National Security Studies (INSS) think tank, whom the Iranians wanted to be
physically harmed, a joint statement by the police and Shin Bet added. The
suspect was separately asked by the Iranians to look for an assassin for a
separate mission. Another person, whose origin was Azerbaijan, was also
recruited by one of the couple for specific tasks, the statement said. The INSS
said it was thankful the security services had prevented a planned attack on one
of its employees. "While the INSS is an independent research institute, not part
of Israel's defence establishment, it is the country’s leading security research
institute, and as such, Iran seeks to harm its people," INSS director, reserve
major general Tamir Hayman, added. The prosecutor's office of Israel's central
district will serve a severe indictment against the suspects on Thursday, the
statement said. Iran's foreign ministry was not immediately available for
comment.Israel's security forces said earlier this month they had broken up two
separate spy rings on behalf of Iran in Jerusalem and the north of Israel.
Israel has a history of intelligence operations in Iran, allegedly including the
assassination in July of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian
group Hamas in a Tehran state guesthouse. Israel has made no claim of
responsibility for that killing.
What displacement looks like for Palestinians in Gaza as
Israel-Hamas war continues
CBC/Thu, October 31, 2024
Displacement has affected the majority of Palestinians in Gaza living through
the year-long war between Israel and Hamas. The Internal Displacement Monitoring
Center, an international non-governmental organization, set the number of
internally displaced people (IDP) at 1.9 million in the Gaza Strip. Among those
displaced, recent photos posted by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) on X,
formerly Twitter, show hundreds of civilians lined up together, holding their
meagre belongings and filing out of the Jabalia refugee camp based on
instructions from the IDF. "We gathered from 10 a.m. and then everyone left.
There were injured people,"For the past year, Palestinians in Gaza have been on
the move, from north to south, under instructions from the IDF. Many of the
close to two million IDPs in Gaza estimated by international organizations,
including the United Nations, hope they will be able to return home, but as the
war rages on, that hope diminishes. Sitting in his uncle's home in Khan Younis,
in southern Gaza, Zaid said that on Oct. 21, he and his family, along with
hundreds of other civilians, were instructed to make their way to the centre of
Jabalia and prepare for evacuation. The message was sent through leaflets and
drones outfitted with microphones. Zaid and his wife and six children had been
sheltering at a school, but as fighting ramped up in the north, they were asked
to move again and go south. "I swear we were scared ... we didn't know what
would happen," he said. At this point, he said, the civilians were surrounded
from every side with tanks and possibly snipers. Everyone was asked to hold up
their Palestinian ID, the white piece of paper in their hands, look forward and
keep walking. "The men are scared to speak or talk about anything, the whole
situation was scary," Zaid said. Over the next five hours, the men were
separated from the women and children, made to stand in line with the rest of
the group and file out five by five through a checkpoint, where IDF soldiers
searched them and their belongings. Holding up the photo on his phone, Zaid said
that moment was the "hardest situation" in the whole evacuation because he was
apart from his family. In a statement to CBC News, the IDF said such evacuations
are carried out "to protect the uninvolved population."While the Israeli
military calls for the evacuation of civilians from combat zones, it said the
army will not refrain from operating in the area "if it identifies terrorist
organization activities threatening the security of Israel."The IDF said that
any persons suspected of terrorist activities "are detained and interrogated."
Those found not to be involved in suspicious activities are released. "In some
cases, detainees are required to remove clothing to check for concealed
explosives or other weapons," the statement said. Following the search, their
clothes are returned. Ivana Hajzmanova, global monitoring manager at the
Internal Displacement Monitoring Center in Switzerland, said although it's
difficult to quantify, the centre estimates that Palestinians in Gaza have been
displaced at least "10 times" in the last year. "The human toll of this war is
extremely high," she said. "For some, displacement has been a requirement in
Palestine for decades now — grandparents, parents, children being constantly
displaced by conflict and violence in the territory." Hajzmanova said even after
they've left their hometowns, Palestinians are faced with another issue: finding
a safe place to shelter. Most civilians are currently in "less than 20 per cent
of the space in Gaza," she said. "Most of the territory has been put under
relocation directives." Rehab Khalil, 45, was also among the hundreds of people
in the IDF photo. She said she left with her nine children after her husband
struggled to find options for dialysis and died earlier in the war. "We felt
fear," she said. "My children were falling on the ground from fear." Khalil said
she didn't have time to take anything with her other than a small bag of
belongings. Now in central Gaza, she said she doesn't know where to go, but she
still holds out hope that one day she will return home. "And God willing, we
will go home. What happened to us is not fair," she said.
Israeli military kills three Palestinians in West Bank,
health ministry says
Reuters/October 31, 2024 at 5:18 a.m. EDT·1 min read
Israeli strikes on the West Bank's Nur Shams refugee camp on Thursday killed two
Palestinians including a child, the Palestinian health ministry reported. One
Palestinian was shot and killed by the Israeli army overnight in West Bank's
refugee camp of Tulkarm, the health ministry added. The Israeli army said on
Thursday it is conducting an operation targeting "terrorist infrastructure" in
Nur Shams. Official Palestinian news agency WAFA said a large number of Israeli
vehicles and heavy bulldozers stormed the city and headed towards the Nur Shams
refugee camp. Al Quds Brigades, the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad
movement, said in a statement they detonated a highly explosive bomb in a
military bulldozer to thwart the Israeli army's raid.
At least 46 Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes,
hospital hit, says Gaza ministry
REUTERS/October 31, 2024
CAIRO: At least 46 Palestinians were killed in Israeli military strikes across
the Gaza Strip on Thursday, mostly in the north where one attack hit a hospital,
torching medical supplies and disrupting operations, the enclave’s health
officials said. Israel’s military has accused the Palestinian militant group
Hamas of using Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya for military purposes and
said “dozens of terrorists” have been hiding there. Health officials and Hamas
deny the charge. Later on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike on two houses in the
Nuseirat camp in central Gaza killed at least 16 Palestinians, medics at Al-Awda
Hospital in the camp told Reuters. The dead included a paramedic and two local
journalists, they added. Northern Gaza, where Israel said in January it had
dismantled Hamas’ command structure, is currently the main focus of the
military’s assault in the enclave. Earlier this month it sent tanks into Jabalia,
Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya to flush out militants it said had regrouped. Eid
Sabbah, director of nursing at Kamal Adwan — which is in Beit Lahiya — told
Reuters some staff suffered minor burns after the Israeli strike hit the third
floor of the hospital. There were no reports of any casualties at the hospital,
which Israeli forces stormed and briefly occupied last week. Israel said it had
captured around 100 suspected Hamas militants in that raid. Israeli tanks are
still stationed nearby. The health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip called
for all international bodies “to protect hospitals and medical staff from the
brutality of the (Israeli) occupation.” The Israeli military has said its forces
are operating in the hospital area based on intelligence about the presence of
terrorists and terror infrastructure in the vicinity. “During the operation, it
was found that dozens of terrorists were hiding in the hospital, with some even
posing as hospital staff,” said the military in a statement following Thursday’s
strike. Medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said on Thursday that one
of its doctors at the hospital, Mohammed Obeid, had been detained last Saturday
by Israeli forces. It called for the protection of him and all medical staff who
“are facing horrific violence as they try to provide care.”The Gaza war began
after Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200
people and taking 251 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s subsequent assault on Gaza has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and
reduced most of the enclave to rubble, Palestinian authorities say.
Arab League Hosts 16th Nuclear, Security Forum
Asharq Al Awsat/31 October 2024
The 16th edition of the two-day Nuclear and Security Forum commenced on
Wednesday at the Arab League headquarters. Over 100 experts from 14 Arab
countries, along with representatives from Arab and international think tanks,
the International Committee of the Red Cross, UN agencies concerned with
disarmament and non-proliferation, and relevant sectors of the Arab League
Secretariat General took part in the event. The forum addresses key regional and
international topics, including the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone
and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, nuclear deterrence,
the roles of youth and women in nuclear disarmament and arms control, security
challenges in the Middle East, the environmental, legal, and humanitarian
impacts of lethal weapons used in attacks on Gaza, and the latest developments
in maritime security.
All 3 Iranian Consulates in Germany Ordered Shut
Asharq Al Awsat/31 October 2024
Germany ordered the closure of all three Iranian Consulates in the country on
Thursday in response to the execution of Iranian German prisoner Jamshid
Sharmahd, who lived in the United States and was kidnapped in 2020 by Iranian
security forces. Sharmahd, 69, was put to death in Iran on Monday on terrorism
charges, the Iranian judiciary said. That followed a 2023 trial that Germany,
the US and international rights groups dismissed as a sham. The decision to
close the Iranian Consulates in Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich, announced by
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, leaves Iran with only its embassy in Berlin,
The Associated Press reported. The German Foreign Ministry had already summoned
Iran’s charge d’affaires on Tuesday to protest against Sharmahd’s execution.
German Ambassador Markus Potzel also protested to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi, before being recalled to Berlin for consultations. Sharmahd was one of
several Iranian dissidents abroad in recent years either tricked or kidnapped
back to Iran as Tehran began lashing out after the collapse of its 2015 nuclear
deal with world powers including Germany. Iran accused Sharmahd, who lived in
Glendora, California, of planning a 2008 attack on a mosque that killed 14
people — including five women and a child — and wounded over 200 others, as well
as plotting other assaults through the little-known Kingdom Assembly of Iran and
its Tondar militant wing. Iran also accused Sharmahd of “disclosing classified
information” on missile sites of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard during a television
program in 2017. His family disputed the allegations and had worked for years to
see him freed. Iran pushed back against Germany’s protests. Araghchi wrote
Tuesday on social network X that “a German passport does not provide impunity to
anyone, let alone a terrorist criminal.”He accused Baerbock of “gaslighting” and
wrote that “your government is accomplice in the ongoing Israeli genocide.”
Germany is a staunch ally of Israel and has sharply criticized Iranian attacks
on Israel as tensions spiral over the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
The closure of consulates, a diplomatic tool Germany seldom uses, signals a
major downgrade to diplomatic relations Baerbock said were “already at more than
a low point.” Last year, Berlin told Russia to close four of the five consulates
it then had in Germany after Moscow set a limit for the number of staff at the
German Embassy and related bodies in Russia. Iran's government “knows above all
the language of blackmail, threat and violence,” Baerbock said Thursday. “The
latest comments by the Iranian foreign minister, in which he puts the
cold-blooded murder of Jamshid Sharmahd in the context of German support for
Israel, also speak for themselves.”“We repeatedly made unmistakably clear to
Tehran that the execution of a German citizen would have serious consequences,”
said Baerbock, adding that the cases of Germans held in Iran were a “central
part” of a meeting she held with Araghchi in New York a month ago.
She said Berlin will continue with “tireless work” to get an unspecified number
of other Germans released.
Israel envoy seeks hostages 'at any cost,' says Canada
has strained ties during war
Dylan Robertson/The Canadian Press/October 31, 202
OTTAWA — Israel's ambassador to Canada says the war that started a year ago has
profoundly changed Israelis' views on peace in the Middle East — and strained
his country's long-standing strong relationship with Canada. In a recent
interview with The Canadian Press a year after the Hamas attack on Israel, Iddo
Moed said the war has united Israelis across the political spectrum in
solidarity, but has caused confusion about Canada's stance on the conflict.
"We want our hostages back at any cost," Moed said. "We are in a historical
point in time, where principled decisions have to be made, where our moral
compass should point us to the same direction." Last October, militants from
Hamas and its affiliates in the Gaza Strip stormed the border with Israel,
killing 1,200 civilians and soldiers while abducting another 250 people, in what
was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The following month,
Israel's foreign ministry screened videos to foreign journalists of grenades
tossed into a bomb shelter where a family hid, point-blank executions and
severely burned bodies with their hands tied. The footage included militants
grinning and chanting as they drove terrified Israelis into Gaza. These ghastly
images were shared widely through WhatsApp, and have filled Israelis with grief
and rage. "We are traumatized by Oct. 7. We are still coming to terms with what
took place there — with the expression of violent and barbaric hatred," Moed
said. Israel mounted a ground campaign in Gaza with the goal of defeating Hamas,
though it has never specified its metric for victory. The Hamas-controlled
health ministry in Gaza says the war has killed more than 43,000 people in the
territory, including combatants. United Nations officials say nowhere is safe as
the Israeli military continually demands Palestinians evacuate to areas they
often end up bombing. The war has produced a daily onslaught of gruesome images
from Gaza of bombed-out refugee camps, ashen children missing limbs and hospital
patients set ablaze. Ottawa has voiced concerns that Israel could be exceeding
its right to self-defence and could be violating international humanitarian law
— a claim Israel rejects. Moed said Israeli society has broadly coalesced around
the need to defeat Hamas, though polling shows a deep split in Israel as to
whether the war is worth continuing. The ambassador noted that his country is
facing off with not just Hamas, but Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and
Iran's military. "Israel is going through its toughest period since its
creation," he said. Israeli communities near Gaza and Lebanon remain vacated,
with families living in hotels that used to be replete with tourists. Israel's
central bank keeps trimming its economic growth forecast.
In Canada, humanitarian concerns about the war in Gaza led Parliament in March
to vote to halt the approval of new military export permits to Israel, and
Ottawa to review prior permits. Canada does not have a military embargo against
Israel, but it has barred the use of Canadian arms in Gaza.
The same concerns have led Canada to abstain from voting on United Nations
resolutions calling out Israel, after decades of voting down motions that Canada
said were not balanced. "This departure from a very principled position is very,
very disappointing for us," said Moed, arguing these resolutions don't seek
peace but instead aim "to weaken Israel diplomatically, politically, as much as
possible." He took a similar view of Canada restoring funding to a UN agency for
Palestinians, which the Canadian government says is indispensable for delivering
life-saving aid in Gaza.
Israel claims that hundreds of Palestinian militants work for UNRWA, without
providing evidence, and that more than a dozen employees took part in the Oct.
7, 2023, attack in Israel. UNRWA investigated 19 employees accused of taking
part in the attack, and fired an unspecified number of them. The agency has
30,000 employees. Moed did praise Canada for listing a branch of Iran's
military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a terrorist organization in
June after years of Conservative pressure. He wants Ottawa "to lead other
countries in the same path as Canada," such as by sharing the information that
led to the designation. Overall, Moed suggested Canada's stances on the Middle
East would be more clear to Israelis if Ottawa offered "solutions for actual
problems," suggesting as an example deradicalization and demilitarization
programs in Gaza when the war ends. Canada has repeatedly said that long-term
peace will only be possible if there is a Palestinian state — and that Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has undermined efforts at advancing
Palestinian statehood. Ireland, Spain and Norway expressed similar concerns in
May when they formally recognized the State of Palestine. Most of South America,
Africa and Asia have already done so, though few of Canada's allies have.
In July, Israel's parliament overwhelmingly rejected the idea of a two-state
solution in a 68-9 vote.
Moed said advancing Palestinian statehood would only reward Hamas for its attack
at a time when Israel is facing threats on multiple fronts. He said Israelis
feel most Palestinians don't respect the existence of the State of Israel,
making it impossible to live in peace. He claimed there is strong support among
the Palestinian population for Hamas. "We don't see leadership emerging on the
Palestinian side that is able and capable of changing the mindset of the
majority of Palestinians," he said. Israel has denounced Palestinian leaders for
not condemning the Hamas attack last fall.
The Palestinian ambassador to Canada, Mona Abuamara, said peace can only be
realized if people understand that Israel's decades of occupation of Palestinian
territories — along with the air, sea and ground blockade of Gaza — drove the
accumulation of grievances leading up to the Hamas attack.
She argued that closing pathways to negotiations and failing to use non-violent
tools like boycotts and sanctions leaves Palestinians resorting to what Western
countries classify as terrorism, and other states deem to be armed resistance
against violent occupation.
"It didn't start on Oct. 7," Abuamara said in an August interview with The
Canadian Press. "We need to have people understand that every life is worthy. We
want everyone to be safe, we want everyone to be secure. But Israeli lives
cannot be more important than Palestinian lives."
Ottawa has stuck a similar tone in condemning far-right Israeli cabinet
ministers who have voiced support for mobs seeking to free soldiers accused of
perpetuating the filmed gang rape of a Palestinian prisoner. Last month, an
Israeli airstrike killed a Canadian couple in Lebanon who were trying to flee to
safety. A Canadian was among a group of aid workers killed in Israel's triple
strike last April on a World Central Kitchen convoy that had been operating with
Israeli approval. Moed says the Israeli military is doing its best limit
civilian casualties while routing "the sources of evil in the Middle East" that
it believes are often deeply embedded in civilian areas. "We are in an
existential battle," he said. "We want to be able to look back 10 years from now
in Israel, and say we did it according to the best moral values that we want to
live by."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published October 31, 2024.
— With files from The Associated Press
Saudi foreign minister denounces Israel's north Gaza assault as genocide
Pesha Magid/RIYADH (Reuters)/October 31, 2024
-Saudi Arabia denounced Israeli attacks in northern Gaza as genocide on
Thursday, telling foreign investors that some bilateral agreements it has been
negotiating with Washington are "not that tied" to normalisation of its
relations with Israel. Speaking on stage at an investment conference in Riyadh,
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said Israeli actions in
northern Gaza could only be described as a form a genocide that was feeding a
cycle of violence. He reiterated the kingdom's position that it would not
recognise Israel without a Palestinian state, adding on that proposed step,
Saudi Arabia is "quite happy to wait until the situation is amenable," before
moving ahead with normalisation. "We look at just what's happening now in north
(Gaza) where we have a complete blockade of any access for humanitarian goods
coupled with a continued military assault without any real pathway for civilians
to find shelter, to find safe zones, that can only be described as a form of
genocide," he said. "It is certainly against humanitarian law, international
humanitarian law, and is feeding a continuing cycle of violence."In Jerusalem,
there was no immediate response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office
to a request for comment. Israel says it has continued food deliveries into Gaza
and blames the United Nations for failing to feed Gazans. Prince Faisal added
that potential U.S.-Saudi agreements about trade and artificial intelligence are
"not tied to any third parties" and "can progress probably quite quickly."
"Some of the more significant defence cooperation agreements are much more
complicated. We would certainly welcome an opportunity to finish them before the
(end of the Biden) administration's term, but that's reliant on other factors
outside of our control," he said. "The other work streams are not that
connected, and some of them are progressing quite quickly, and we hope to see
moving forward."
SECURITY COMMITMENTS
Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are looking into a set of agreements on nuclear
energy, security and defence cooperation, which were originally all part of a
wider normalisation deal with Riyadh and Israel. U.S. President Joe Biden’s
aides originally envisioned, in three-way negotiations before the Oct. 7 attack,
for Saudi Arabia to gain U.S. security commitments and U.S. nuclear cooperation
in exchange for normalising ties with Israel. U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken had said in May that Washington and Riyadh were close to concluding a
set of agreements but cautioned that for normalisation to proceed there must be
calm in Gaza and a path to Palestinian statehood. Fears of the Middle East
conflict further widening peaked earlier this month after Tehran's missile
attack on Israel on Oct. 1. Israel responded by striking military sites in Iran
on Saturday but stopped short of attacking nuclear or oil facilities. Gulf
states had sought urgent de-escalation, fearing they could be caught in the
crosshairs of a widening conflict. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has had a
political rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, which has helped ease
regional tensions, but relations remain difficult. “I think our relations (with
Iran) are moving in the right direction, but of course, they are complicated by
the issues of regional dynamics," Prince Faisal said.
Strike on Iran shows Israeli Air Force's embrace of
ballistic missiles
Paul Iddon/Business Insider/October 31, 2024
More than 100 Israeli fighter jets attacked 20 targets inside Iran, ranging from
its top air-defense systems to key missile manufacturing facilities, early on
October 26. Their weapon of choice: air-launched ballistic missiles. These
allowed Israeli jets to strike largely from beyond the reach of Iran's defenses
and with fast flight paths, most likely from neighboring Iraq, that complicated
efforts to shoot them down. "Based on open-source information and satellite
imagery, it appears that Israel's use of air-launched ballistic missiles played
a critical role in targeting and disabling Iran's air-defense systems during the
recent operation," Freddy Khoueiry, a global security analyst for the Middle
East and North Africa at the risk-intelligence company RANE, told Business
Insider.
Signs of Israel's strategy appeared shortly after the attack. Images on social
media showed remnants of boosters used by the Israelis that landed on Iraqi
soil. Iranian officials initially claimed Tehran countered such missiles, saying
they had "very light warheads" compared with Iranian ground-launched ballistic
missiles, more than 180 of which Iran fired at Israel in an enormous barrage on
October 1. Analysts assessing the aftermath of the attack questioned whether any
of the Israeli jets, which included stealthy, fifth-generation F-35s, even
entered Iranian airspace. Some targets were in the nearby Iranian border
provinces of Khuzestan and Ilam, while the rest were in Tehran province, about
400 miles away. Before the attack, leaked US intelligence documents mentioned a
hitherto unknown Israeli air-launched ballistic missile, or ALBM, dubbed Golden
Horizon and a long-range drone referred to as RA-01. Other known Israeli ALBMs,
such as Rocks, Rampage, and Air LORA, have ranges of about 175 miles, enough to
reach targets across Iran's border but insufficient for striking Tehran without
entering Iranian airspace. Israel's Blue Sparrow, on the other hand, has an
estimated 1,250-mile range. "Golden Horizon likely has the range for Israeli
aircraft to hit Tehran without having to enter Iranian airspace, removing a lot
of risk from the equation," Sebastien Roblin, a widely published
military-aviation journalist, told BI.
"However, Israeli officials said some IDF aircraft entered Iranian airspace,"
Roblin said. "Penetrating flight may have helped with target acquisition and
bomb damage assessment of certain point targets, or delivery of attacks
requiring greater precision."It's likely that only F-35 stealth fighters, and
possibly RA-01s, entered Iranian airspace while fourth-generation F-15s and F-16
jets kept their distance. The Rampage missile is 4.7 meters long, roughly 15
feet, meaning it cannot fit in the F-35's internal weapons bay. The Golden
Horizon is most likely a similar size, if not larger. Carrying such a weapon
externally would reduce the F-35's crucial stealth capabilities. If any F-35s
entered Iranian airspace, they probably used smaller weapons carried internally.
"By targeting Iran's best surface-to-air missiles — allegedly knocking out all
of Iran's remaining S-300s — the attacks have also paved the way for future
strikes to operate closer at reduced risk," Roblin said. Federico Borsari, a
defense expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, noted that it was
hard to provide a "conclusive breakdown of the ordnance" Israel used but said
the spent-boosters evidence suggested ALBMs played a significant role. "At the
same time, Israeli sources declared that F-35s entered Iranian airspace,
potentially to conduct accurate live battle damage assessment without
necessarily delivering strikes," Borsari told BI. "Given that Israel destroyed
or damaged key radar and air defense sites in Iran, its F-35s could operate in a
less threatening environment."
For more than 30 years, some Israeli officials have advocated the creation of a
missile corps, invariably arguing that Israel cannot wholly rely on the air
force against enemy ballistic missiles. In 2018, the defense minister at the
time, Avigdor Lieberman, aptly summed up this view, arguing that Israel needed
an "alternative to the air force" and couldn't "afford to put all our eggs into
one basket, no matter how sophisticated that basket may be."
The Israeli air force's use of various ALBMs suggests some middle ground was
ultimately reached.
"Now it turns out that the IDF adopted the idea of a long-range missile system
with conventional warheads — but instead of establishing a separate missile
corps, it mounted these missiles on the attack aircraft that will serve as
flying launchpads," a recent article in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz said."The
air force vanquished all its critics and rivals and clearly maintained its
primacy in the IDF," it said. While Israel does have an arsenal of land-based
Jericho intermediate-range ballistic missiles, these are reserved for nuclear
strikes. Using ALBMs for conventional strikes also has some advantages. Israel
designed its Sparrow missiles to simulate Iraqi Scud and Iranian Shahab
ground-launched missiles for testing its Arrow interceptor missiles, which
successfully intercepted most of the incoming Iranian ballistic missiles fired
at Israel on October 1. RANE's Khoueiry said that while Israeli ALBMs and
Iranian short-range ballistic missiles may have similar ranges, the air-launch
capabilities of the former "provide greater flexibility, faster deployment," and
more-advanced precision. Roblin pointed out that a missile launched from a
fighter starts out with a "huge altitude and speed boost" compared with its
ground-launched counterpart. The latter missile requires "a tremendous amount of
the energy stored in its fuel lifting off the ground" while being slowed "by
denser air particles" found at low altitudes, he said. "So, a missile of the
same weight, motor, and fuel capacity can go further when air-launched," Roblin
said. "ALBMs also can be released closer to target to reduce time-to-target and
the reaction time available to defenses, and benefit from extended effective
range courtesy of the carrying aircraft."
Turkey looks to end Kurdish PKK conflict as regional
instability grows
Daren Butler and Ece Toksabay/Reuters/October 31, 2024
Growing regional instability and changing political dynamics have prompted the
first bid in a decade to end Turkey's 40-year conflict with Kurdish militants,
but its chances of success are unclear as Ankara has given no clues on what it
may entail. Several politicians and analysts told Reuters that the peace
proposal by a close ally of Tayyip Erdogan has spurred both hope and uncertainty
as to how the president might proceed. Underlining how difficult it will be to
restart peace talks, after the last effort between Turkey and the Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) in 2013-2015, the PKK claimed responsibility for a gun
attack in Ankara last week that killed five people. Yet peace would bring major
dividends to Turkey, relieving a burden on its security forces, boosting the
mainly Kurdish southeast's under-developed economy and easing social tensions.
Many Kurds hope a peace deal would bring democratic reforms and a boost for
Kurdish language and cultural rights – moves likely to be applauded by
NATO-member Turkey's Western allies. Officials remain tight-lipped about any
possible plan to bring this about. But the widening conflict in the Middle East
and Turkey's unease about the militants' presence in northern Iraq and Syria are
seen as factors in Ankara's calculations. "One of the most important reasons is
regional dynamics, because the destabilisation of the Middle East results in an
increased cost for Turkey from the Kurdish issue," said Vahap Coskun, a law
lecturer at Dicle University in the southeast's largest city Diyarbakir. Last
week, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli, suggested that PKK
leader Abdullah Ocalan, held in an island prison near Istanbul since his capture
25 years ago, come to parliament and announce the end of the conflict and the
PKK's surrender in exchange for the possibility of his release. Several
lawmakers from Turkey's ruling alliance, speaking off the record due to the
issue's sensitivity, told Reuters Bahceli's speech had surprised everyone and
that talk of a new process was premature. "As our president has said, there's
nothing extraordinary in Turkey's pursuit to completely end terrorism at a time
when wars and crises are going on in the region," one lawmaker from Erdogan's AK
Party said.
'WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY'
The only concrete move so far has been Ankara's permission for Ocalan's nephew
to visit his uncle, the first family visit in 4-1/2 years. He subsequently
quoted his uncle as saying he had the power to end the conflict "if the
conditions are right". On Wednesday, Erdogan described Bahceli's proposal as a
"historic window of opportunity" and urged Kurds to accept the extended hand.
But he also said no call was made to "the terrorist barons feeding on blood",
referring to the PKK itself. Erdogan promised "good news for our nation that
will guarantee the security of our entire southern border", beyond which, in
Syria and Iraq, are the Kurdish fighters over whom Ocalan holds sway. Turkey has
launched incursions into northern Syria in the last decade, targeting Kurdish
forces that it says are terrorists closely tied to the PKK, but which have been
a major partner for the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State. Ankara is also
pressing Baghdad for greater cooperation in combating militants based in
northern Iraq, where strikes by Turkish warplanes and drones have caused major
PKK losses. More than 40,000 people have been killed in Turkey's conflict with
the PKK, which is also designated a terrorist group by Ankara's Western allies.
Bahceli first signalled his intentions when he shook pro-Kurdish DEM Party
lawmakers' hands in parliament this month, a surprising move given his long
condemnation of them as tools of the PKK. He also referred to DEM in his call to
Ocalan, suggesting a possible role for them in any process. Tayip Temel, a
deputy leader of DEM, said Bahceli's call merited careful assessment, but said
there was deep uncertainty about Ankara's plans. "The government needs to make a
decision on this issue and create the dynamics that can start a process," Temel
told Reuters. Politically, there is a favourable environment for a resolution to
the conflict, given that the call has come from Bahceli, the leader most opposed
to the peace process a decade ago. Turkey's main opposition has also signalled
its support. Some commentators said Turkey's ruling alliance might be motivated
by a desire to win DEM's backing for constitutional change that could boost
Erdogan’s prospects in elections scheduled for 2028. Uncertainty also persists
about the level of authority Ocalan still exerts over the PKK from jail. In a
statement, the PKK described Ocalan as its interlocutor in any talks with
Ankara, but it is unclear what they would seek from any peace process. In
Diyarbakir, shopkeeper Halit Koc said people were responding positively to the
proposal but he remained sceptical. "They reached the final stage of the peace
process before and broke it off. I do not think they (Turkey) will be very
sincere in this peace process either," Koc said.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on October 31- November 01/2024
Saudi Arabia must decide if a relationship with Israel is worth its while
- editorial
Jerusalem Post Editorial/October 28/2024
MBS, the young and forward-looking Saudi prince, is known to be less patient
than many of his older predecessors in Saudi diplomacy with the Palestinians.
After news broke early Saturday of the Israel Air Force’s extensive strikes on
Iranian missile sites, drone facilities, and radar systems deep within the
Islamic Republic, one country’s response was both typically mundane and yet
tantalizingly intriguing: Saudi Arabia.
Given its strategic rivalry with Iran and its delicate, evolving ties with
Israel, Riyadh’s reaction was anticipated as a key signal of the kingdom’s
balancing act in the region. A Saudi Foreign Ministry statement expressed the
kingdom’s “condemnation and denunciation” of the targeting of Iran while calling
for a halt to the continued escalation in the region. Interestingly, the Saudi
statement avoids any direct mention of Israel, not even referring to it as “the
enemy,” a common phrase used by states that do not recognize its existence. Ten
years ago, Riyadh’s stance might have been more forceful. The current response
reflects a more calculated approach: recognizing Iran’s sovereignty while
showing an implied acceptance of Israel’s actions regarding regional security.
This careful positioning allows the kingdom to maintain restraint while still
aligning with Israel in its efforts to counter Iran’s influence. However, Israel
may well have had reason recently to be worried. Although the Saudis came to
Israel’s aid during Iran’s April attack, there has been a recent warming of ties
between the kingdom and the Islamic Republic that must have raised more than a
few eyebrows in Jerusalem. New Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh earlier this month as part of a
whistle-stop tour of Middle Eastern states. Iran’s role in ingratiating itself
with Saudi Arabia and other countries, such as Egypt, should be seen as part of
its overall plan to isolate the Jewish state. Recent whispers of rapprochement
between Riyadh and Tehran cause concern – not just for Israel but for any state
genuinely invested in a peaceful and stable Middle East. For decades, Saudi
Arabia and Israel have pursued parallel interests, often quietly, in countering
Iranian influence. Tehran’s deep involvement in supporting militias, exporting
its revolutionary ideology, and destabilizing governments across the region
presents a threat to Arab and Israeli interests alike. While Saudi Arabia is
considering warming ties with Iran under the pretext of diplomacy and potential
de-escalation, the inherent risks of such a strategy outweigh the possible
benefits. Iran’s quest for dominance in the Middle East is built on a foundation
of sectarianism, militarism, and economic coercion. Its support for terrorist
organizations like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen
has undermined efforts to create long-lasting peace. The Saudis themselves
engaged in a long-term bombing campaign against the Houthis, based across the
Saudi southern border.
What's the wait?
The Saudis have also officially stated on several occasions since the Abraham
Accords were signed that any normalization deal with Israel depends on solving
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, diplomacy is very different between
what is played out in the public arena and what takes place behind closed doors.
MBS, the young and forward-looking Saudi prince, is known to be less patient
than many of his older predecessors in Saudi diplomacy with the Palestinians. In
January, he allegedly told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he does not
personally care about what he referred to as the “Palestinian issue.”MBS’s
vision to bring the kingdom into the 21st century and reduce its dependency on
oil has given renewed hope for a Saudi-Israel normalization deal to become a
reality. Suppose Saudi Arabia diverts its focus from Israel to pursue a
rapprochement with Iran. In that case, it risks undermining the very alliance
that has the potential to secure long-term stability in the region. Instead of
looking toward Tehran, Saudi Arabia should focus on deepening its engagement
with Israel. The framework provided by the Abraham Accords offers a blueprint
for cooperation. Saudi Arabia must weigh the potential gains of relations with
Iran against the far-reaching benefits of a strategic partnership with Israel.
The lessons of the past are clear: Iran cannot be trusted to foster long-term
peace. Instead, Riyadh should look toward Israel, a partner that has
demonstrated its willingness to collaborate and innovate for a more peaceful
future. Let us hope the Saudis do not squander this moment by turning toward
those who have repeatedly shown that their interests lie in disruption, not
peace.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-826358
The Biased Media: What They Make It Their Business Not to See
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/October 31, 2024
"Turkey is bombing and massacring Kurds tonight. No protests, no marches, no
media coverage, no condemnations from UN, no ICC arrest warrants for Erdogan.
Since 1914 Turkey has killed over 1.5 million Kurds. Stop Kurdish genocide." —
Hemdad Mehristani, researcher, X, October 23, 2024.
If Turkey has the right to respond to a terrorist attack by bombing dozens of
targets belonging to Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria, why is Israel being
condemned for responding to the October 7 Hamas-led atrocities against its own
citizens? Just because of the "two-state solution": Michigan and Minnesota?
Not only is Erdogan lying when he accuses Israel of "genocide," but he is also
proving that he is a big hypocrite. If he is really worried about the safety of
the Muslims in the Gaza Strip, why does he continue to support Hamas, while
denying Israel the right to defend itself against Islamist terrorism? If he
believes that he has the right to bomb Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq, why
is he denouncing Israel for taking the same action against Palestinian Islamist
terrorists?
The complicit silence of the anti-Israel groups on US university campuses
towards Turkey's crimes is simply evidence of a staggering racism and hypocrisy.
If Turkey has the right to respond to a terrorist attack by bombing dozens of
targets belonging to Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria, why is Israel being
condemned for responding to the October 7 Hamas-led atrocities against its own
citizens?
Earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of
committing "genocide" in the Gaza Strip in its counterterrorism operation
against the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group. Hamas had launched the October 7,
2023 attack on Israel, murdering 1,200 Israelis, wounding thousands, and
kidnapping more than 240 hostages. Erdogan, whose country has been hosting and
supporting some of the leaders of Hamas, threatened that Israel will "eventually
pay the price for this genocide." He added: "There will be no peace in the world
without accountability for the genocide in Gaza."
Erdogan is currently facing the same charges he has leveled against Israel. The
only difference is that many in the world are silent when Turkey targets the
Kurds in Syria and Iraq, but continue to protest against Israel for defending
itself against Hamas murderers and rapists responsible for the worst massacre of
Jews since the Holocaust. On October 23, Turkey's Ministry of Defense announced
that Turkish Air Force jets struck Kurdish militant targets in Iraq and Syria in
response to an attack on a Turkish aerospace and defense company near Ankara.
The Turkish authorities believe that Kurdish militants set off explosives and
opened fire at the company, killing five people and injuring more than a dozen
others.
Note what Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said after the terrorist attack
in Ankara: "We will pursue them [the Kurdish militants] until the last terrorist
is eliminated." This statement sounds exactly like those made by Israeli
officials immediately after the October 7 Hamas-led atrocities against Israel.
Eliminating terrorists is good thing, but how come it does not apply to Israel?
If Turkey has the right to respond to a terrorist attack by bombing dozens of
targets belonging to Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria, why is Israel being
condemned for responding to the October 7 Hamas-led atrocities against its own
citizens? Just because of the "two-state solution": Michigan and Minnesota?
Over the years, the Turks have killed hundreds of thousands of Kurds. Yet, we
have not seen a single encampment at a US university protesting Turkey's
actions. "In the past decades, the Fascist Turkish government has killed
hundreds of thousands of Kurdish civilians in Turkey, Iraq and Syria," said
prominent Kurdish journalist Suzan Quitaz. "Nothing but silence from the United
Nations and the hypocrite international community on Turkey's war crimes and
genocide against the Kurdish people. Silence also from the so-called 'Peace
loving' Woke & their Islamist Hamas supporters who been marching in support for
Hamas terrorists in Europe and America calling for the inhalation of state of
Israel. Guess, NO JEWS NO NEWS!"
Kurdish researcher Hemdad Mehristani commented on the Turkish military strikes
against the Kurds:
"Turkey is bombing and massacring Kurds tonight. No protests, no marches, no
media coverage, no condemnations from UN, no ICC arrest warrants for Erdogan.
Since 1914 Turkey has killed over 1.5 million Kurds. Stop Kurdish genocide."
Diliman Abdulkader, a foreign policy expert and director of the Kurdistan
Project for the Endowment for Middle East Truth, sarcastically remarked:
"We demand an immediate ceasefire and a Two-State Solution, the Kurds deserve to
live in peace and should no longer have to deal with Turkish terrorism. Turkey
must be held accountable!"
Abdulkader was referring to recurring calls by the Biden administration and
other Western governments and leaders for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza
Strip and the creation of a Palestinian terror state next to Israel.
In another post on X (formerly Twitter), Abdulkader wrote:
"Earth to the far-left! Turkey is bombing the Kurds, where is your call for a
two-state solution?? How about a ceasefire?? ▪️Where's our so-called Muslim
'brothers' and 'sisters'?? Muslim Turkey is killing Muslim Kurds, why the
silence?? Y'all are holding mass demonstrations and occupying college campuses
tomorrow against Turkey's genocide of the Kurds right?? Oh my bad, it's only
fashionable to speak against Israel. No Jews No News."
Hawzhin Azeez, a Kurdish academic and poet, wrote:
"Turkey promotes itself as a defender of Palestinian rights but indiscriminately
bombs Kurds across Syria and Iraq and the world is not only silent but sees
Turkey as a hero."
A social media influencer called ShantiZulu wrote:
"Where are you when a @NATO Member, Turkey is commiting a real genocide against
the Kurds? 30 million+ defenceless people being bombed by Turkey into non
existence . Where are you? Why are you so quiet? Why do you not care when they
are being massacred? Why are they not worthy of protection under the LAW? SHAME
ON YOU"
There is an Islamic hadith (saying of the prophet Mohammed) that says:
"Asma bint Yazid narrated that the Messenger of Allah said: it is not lawful to
lie except in three cases: Something the man tells his wife to please her, to
lie during war, and to lie in order to bring peace between the people."
Erdogan, who is perpetrating crimes against his fellow Muslims in Syria and
Iraq, appears to be acting in line with the same hadith. Not only is Erdogan
lying when he accuses Israel of "genocide," but he is also proving that he is a
big hypocrite. If he is really worried about the safety of the Muslims in the
Gaza Strip, why does he continue to support Hamas, while denying Israel the
right to defend itself against Islamist terrorism? If he believes that he has
the right to bomb Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq, why is he denouncing
Israel for taking the same action against Palestinian Islamist terrorists?
The complicit silence of the anti-Israel groups on US university campuses
towards Turkey's crimes is simply evidence of a staggering racism and hypocrisy.
**Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. His work is made
possible through the generous donation of a couple of donors who wished to
remain anonymous. Gatestone is most grateful.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Breaking: ‘Christian Terrorist’ Who Murdered Three Little
Girls Was Reading Jihadist Literature
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/October 31, 2024
Remember when an African son of migrants went on a stabbing spree in late July,
killing three little girls (aged six, seven, and nine) and seriously injuring
nearly a dozen others in England? The incident had Britons protesting in the
streets against the government’s unchecked migration policies, knowing that the
only residents who routinely commit knife crimes are Muslims.
Then the really “big news” came out: all those protesting and rioting English
“bigots” had foolishly assumed that the murderer, 17-year-old “Axel” Muganwa
Rudakubana, was a Muslim terrorist, though he clearly was not. His name was not
Muslim, the authorities and their media mouthpieces assured us; and his parents
had migrated to England from a Christian nation, Rwanda.
Here is a typical report showcasing how smugly the media denounced “the false
information spread by far-right groups” (emphasis added):
UK authorities have revealed the identity of the suspect of a stabbing attack
that killed three young girls and wounded several other children, confirming
that the identity used by Islamophobic groups to fuel the anti-Muslim riots was
fake.
The suspect was named on Thursday as 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana, born in the UK
to Rwandan parents. Local media reported the suspect comes from a family
“heavily involved with the local church.”
But the false information spread by far-right groups led to anti-Muslim and
anti-immigrant riots even as mobs also clashed with police outside a mosque, the
first of several violent riots across the country.
By the time a judge said the teen suspect could be identified, rumours were
already rife and far-right influencers had pinned the blame on immigrants and
Muslims.
Both Possible and Highly Likely
Despite what the media and politicians were saying, a week after the murders I
laid out in a Stream article all the reasons why it was very plausible — and not
at all “Islamophobic” — to believe Rudakubana was born a Muslim or had converted
to Islam. Relevant excerpts follow:
First, as it happens, many Muslims have launched similar attacks, randomly
stabbing native Europeans. …
On Nov. 23, 2023, a Muslim man of Algerian origin, with a known criminal record,
also knifed a group of preschool children attending Saint Mary’s, a Catholic
school in Dublin. Three children — two girls and a boy, all five or six years
old — and a care assistant who tried to defend them were stabbed in the assault.
Knifed near the heart, another five-year-old girl was hospitalized in critical
condition….
Second, Rudakubana could be a convert to Islam.
Many non-Muslims, including of European origin, have converted to Islam and then
engaged in terrorism. Moreover, as a young black migrant in the UK, where
cultural and ethnic polarization has become pronounced, Rudakubana would most
likely have gravitated to and adopted the ways and worldview of other black and
brown migrants; and a great many of these are Muslim in the UK.
Third, when it comes to the names of sub-Saharan African Muslims, these are
often indigenous and not what you might expect them to be — Muhammad, Ahmed, and
the like…. The two African men who slaughtered and used a cleaver to behead Lee
Rigby, a British soldier, in the streets of London in 2013 were named Michael
Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale. Both were converts to Islam…
But perhaps the greatest indicator that Muganwa Rudakubana may have been a
Muslim is that the British authorities who are saying he is not Muslim have lost
all credibility. Their word is absolutely worthless.
And now, according to a new report published on October 29:
The suspect charged with the murder of three girls in Southport is to be
separately prosecuted on suspicion of possessing terrorist material and
producing the highly toxic poison ricin, police have said.
Axel Rudakubana, 18, will appear at Westminster magistrates court on Wednesday
charged with producing the biological toxin ricin and having a document titled
“Military studies in the Jihad against the Tyrants – the Al-Qaida training
manual.”
Three slain victims of Rudakubana
More Grounds Than a Coffeepot
Now what was this confused and/or disgruntled “Christian” kid doing with
jihadist, al-Qaeda material? The answer has already been given above: If he
wasn’t already a Muslim (with a non-recognizably Muslim name), he was a convert;
and, as many converts to Islam are wont to do, he wanted to prove his bona fides
by slaughtering infidels.
Of course, this new revelation has not stopped the authorities from pretending
that Rudakubana’s murder of three little girls still has nothing to do with
Islam — or that his “rights” need to be carefully preserved. In the words of
Serena Kennedy, the chief constable of Merseyside police:
At this time, Counter Terrorism Policing has not declared the attack on Monday
29 July a terrorist incident. I recognise that the new charges may lead to
speculation. The matter for which Axel Rudakubana has been charged with under
the Terrorism Act does not require motive to be established. For a matter to be
declared a terrorist incident, motivation would need to be established.
Apparently hate for infidels, or the Koran’s calls to slaughter infidels
“wherever you find them” (9:5), or ISIS’s constant urgings for Muslims to
randomly stab and kill non-Muslims in Europe are not enough grounds for
“motivation.”
Continues Kennedy:
I would strongly advise everyone to avoid speculation about the motivation in
this case. The criminal proceedings against Axel Rudakubana are live and he has
a right to a fair trial. It is extremely important that there is no reporting,
commentary, or sharing of information online that could prejudice these
procedures… Don’t engage in rumour speculation. Don’t believe everything you
read… To reiterate: “the British authorities who are saying he is not Muslim
have lost all credibility. Their word is absolutely worthless.”
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar, is the
Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith
Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Rx for America
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute./October 31, 2024
Now would be a good time to recall the words of Benjamin Franklin, who was
instrumental in the founding of our great nation. When asked what type of
government we would have, he cautioned, "A republic, if you can keep it..."
Pictured: Benjamin Franklin, circa 1750.
In the autumn of 2024, there are many things to consider about the future of our
nation, as citizens of the greatest nation on earth will soon be exercising
their right to choose our next leader.
Among the challenges:
The fate of 21st century nations will rise or fall based on their access to
energy. Those leaders who fail to see this simple but stark reality will preside
over the decline and fall of their nation.
As a result, the United States faces a crucial decision this Election Day: Which
president will recognize that truth and act upon it in a world where enemy
states seek to control strategic energy reserves?
Fracking technology has made the United States not only capable of being energy
independent, but an exporter of energy to allied nations equally concerned about
their fate. Rather than allow the full might of America's fossil fuel industry
to power our society, however, the Biden-Harris administration has preferred to
find reasons to curtail, inhibit, and harm this industry's ability to do so. The
Biden-Harris Administration apparently prefers to pursue a "green energy" agenda
dictated by so-called "progressives," with wind and solar alternatives that
could not possibly meet the demands of an energy-hungry nation.
The energy policies of this White House are reflective of a still-larger failure
at a time when our nation finds itself at a critical turning point in history.
No country has ever spent or taxed itself into prosperity. Washington needs to
use the next four years to lower taxes and dispense with the federal regulations
that are now throttling growth.Washington also needs to consider low-cost loans
for business expansion that especially assist middle class entrepreneurs who
reside at the heart of our American economy. Efforts are also needed to create a
prioritized economic safety net for our veterans who wore the uniform in the
defense of our nation. They deserve nothing less.
What must be considered another priority by the next administration is to close
our borders. It is not an exaggeration to say the Biden-Harris open-borders
policy is a staggering national security threat. More than 20 million illegal
immigrants are now in the United States, at least half of whom entered since
2021. Among these migrants, reportedly "nearly 2 million known 'gotaways'" have
evaded U.S. Border Patrol under this administration. Law enforcement officials
will quietly tell you the impact on our urban centers has been chilling.
Most important, perhaps, is the future of our democracy. We need transparent and
fair elections: mandatory cleaned-up voter rolls, photo IDs, paper ballots, and
same-day voting – so that no one can check how many votes are still needed to
overturn the latest entry.
Now would be a good time to recall the words of Benjamin Franklin, who was
instrumental in the founding of our great nation. When asked what type of
government we would have, he cautioned, "A republic, if you can keep it..."
**Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Seriha Massacre… Sudan’s Shock
Osman Mirghani/Asharq AlAwsat/October 31/2014
Many people in Sudan, and of course outside the country, had not heard of the
village of Seriha, in Al-Jazirah State (central Sudan), before the massacre it
witnessed a few days ago, during the assault of the Rapid Support Forces. All
kinds of crimes and human rights violations were committed during this attack,
innocent civilians were murdered, detainees were executed in cold blood, and the
elderly were tortured and humiliated.
The Seriha massacre was not the only one perpetrated in Al-Jazirah, which has
been subjected to a systematic terror campaign by Rapid Support Forces in
retaliation for the defection of its commander in the Al-Jazirah area, who has
joined the army. The RSF took their anger out on innocent citizens, brutally
attacking over 30 villages and killing large numbers of innocent men, women, and
children. There have also been reports of the rape and abduction of women and
girls, and citizens being held for ransom. Houses and crops were set on fire,
and tens of thousands were forced to leave their villages in search of safety
from RSF savagery. All the reports and scenes from these areas were horrifying,
and affirmed, once again, that oppressed citizens have become the primary target
of the Rapid Support Forces. They kill and intimidate them, force them to flee,
loot their possessions, and violate their dignity, as their leaders and
spokespersons claim that the citizen is a red line that must not be crossed!!
These peaceful villages do not have army camps, nor are they military strategic
sites. This a series of brutal acts of vengeance designed to instill fear and
terror in the hearts of the citizens and displace them from their villages. The
militia has consistently used this tactic in every area it enters.
The Rapid Support Forces may have also aimed, through this strategy of terror,
to scatter army forces and disrupt its coordinated offensive, which had
succeeded in liberating several strategic sites, pushing the RSF out. We have
seen a coordinated media campaign organized by Rapid Support Forces and their
supporters, entitled "Where is the Army?" This campaign sought to create
internal public pressure on the armed forces.
As part of this systematic misinformation campaign, voices emerged claiming that
the victims of the Al-Jazirah massacres were not unarmed civilians but
militants. In truth, this is nothing but a desperate attempt to justify these
heinous crimes. In any case, the residents of these villages did not seek
confrontation with the Rapid Support Forces; rather, these forces came to their
villages with the intent to kill, loot, and abuse them, using all the means of
destruction and intimidation in their possession, including heavy weapons.
By any standards and law, these people have the right to defend themselves. We
have seen viral clips in which many of those who tried to resist the assault
were armed with nothing but sticks and machetes. Even if we were to assume that
a small number of them had firearms, do they not have the right to defend their
land, people, and honor?
The recent massacres in Al-Jazirah have shocked the people of Sudan and the
world. Several countries, organizations, and bodies, including the United
Nations (through its Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Sudan, Clementine
Nkweta-Salami) have condemned these acts. Salami said that she was "shocked and
utterly appalled," by the reports of the Rapid Support Forces indiscriminately
shooting at civilians, committing acts of sexual violence against women and
girls, looting markets and homes on a large scale, and subjecting many village
residents to "physical assaults, humiliation, and threats" that forced them to
flee their villages in search of safety. Al-Azhar Al-Sharif and the European
Union also stressed the need to hold the perpetrators accountable. These
horrific practices are war crimes that cannot be forgotten with time or
justified by any moral or humanitarian standard. The perpetrators must be held
accountable. Moreover, anyone who supports these forces with arms and funding
bears responsibility for these shameful crimes and human rights violations.The
evidence for these crimes is overwhelming, and everyone knows who perpetrated
them and filmed them. The videos shock anyone with a conscience or a sense of
honor. Thus, I am astonished by those who are blinded by political
considerations and trying to twist the truth to score points and settle scores,
sometimes by accusing the army of failing to defend citizens and at others by
claiming that the citizens had been armed and "mobilized."
Amid this campaign, and at this particular time, it is not surprising to see
some parties reiterate calls for international-African intervention in Sudan.
The Sudanese scene has become an arena for maneuvers, there is no ceiling to
protect the nation from the consequences.
For Iran, this is a pivotal US presidential election
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 31, 2024
Next week’s US presidential election holds immense significance, particularly
for the Iranian government, whose strategic decisions and foreign policies are
often shaped by the American leadership. The outcome of this election could
either tighten or loosen the complex web of international sanctions, economic
constraints and geopolitical dynamics that surround Iran.
For Tehran, it is not just another election taking place overseas but a decisive
moment that could define its economic future, security posture and regional
influence. Every shift in Washington’s power potentially realigns Iran’s ability
to maneuver on the global stage and this election could very well set the course
for the next crucial chapter in US-Iran relations, especially as tensions
between Tehran and Israel have reached a critical point. This heightened
volatility only amplifies the stakes of the US election, making it a pivotal
moment for the region’s stability.
Historically, Iran has paid exceptionally close attention to US presidential
elections, far more than it does to any other nation’s electoral process. The
reason for this is deeply rooted in the intertwined political and economic fates
of both countries since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. In
the span of more than four decades, Iran has witnessed the policies of eight US
presidents — each bringing varying degrees of pressure, confrontation or
negotiation. While some, like Jimmy Carter, saw diplomatic bridges begin to
crumble with the hostage crisis, others such as Barack Obama tried to restore
ties through agreements like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear
deal. Now, with the upcoming election, the stakes are higher than ever. Iran’s
future is, in many ways, intricately connected to the decision American voters
will make on Nov. 5.
Heightened volatility only amplifies the stakes of the US election, making it a
pivotal moment for the region’s stability
The policy divide between the two main candidates running for office,
particularly regarding Iran, is vast and striking. On the one hand, Donald
Trump, the Republican candidate, has consistently pushed for a return to the
“maximum pressure” campaign that defined his first term. This strategy involved
imposing harsh sanctions on Iran’s crucial energy sector, aiming to cripple the
country’s economy and force its hand on issues like nuclear development and
regional influence. Trump’s policy also targeted countries and corporations that
violated US-imposed sanctions on Iran, isolating Tehran even further on the
world stage. Under this approach, Iran’s already fragile economy would likely
suffer immensely, creating a bleak outlook for its future.
On the other hand, Vice President Kamala Harris, as the Democratic presidential
nominee, is expected to continue the Biden administration’s policies, which
emphasize diplomacy over confrontation. The Biden administration has shown
restraint, particularly in its dealings with Iran, seeking to rebuild diplomatic
bridges, and Harris is likely to follow suit. When it comes to Iran’s nuclear
program, Harris would probably push for a return to the JCPOA, the nuclear deal
that Trump famously abandoned. A Harris administration would aim to bring Iran
back into compliance with the nuclear agreement, potentially offering relief
from sanctions in exchange for stricter oversight of its nuclear activities.
This approach stands in stark contrast to Trump’s confrontational policies.
It is also important to point out that the timing of the upcoming US election is
crucial, occurring at a moment when tensions between Iran and Israel have
reached unprecedented heights. Over the last year, the two nations have edged
closer to direct military confrontation, crossing numerous red lines along the
way. Both Israeli and Iranian forces have engaged in retaliatory strikes, with
the risk of full-scale war looming over the region. The stakes of this election
are, therefore, even more significant, as the policies of the next US president
could either fuel or quell this explosive situation. A return to Trump’s more
aggressive stance might escalate the conflict, while a more diplomatic approach
could create opportunities for de-escalation.
The stakes for Tehran are incredibly high, as the gap between the two
candidates’ policies on Iran is vast. The current Biden-Harris administration
has taken a more measured approach regarding the Iran-Israel conflict,
attempting to prevent further escalation. For instance, the White House has
urged caution when it comes to Israel’s military actions, especially in relation
to Iran’s nuclear sites. The current administration seems to be focused on
diplomacy as a key tool for resolving these issues, in contrast to the hawkish
rhetoric of the Trump era. However, should Trump return to office, the chances
of a more hard-line stance are high. He recently expressed support for Israel
launching strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, signaling that a second
Trump administration would likely ramp up the pressure on Tehran, bringing the
region closer to open conflict.
It is worth noting that the Iranian government has already endured four years of
the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy and the consequences were
severe. Iran’s oil exports, once a major source of revenue, plummeted to record
lows. The sanctions crippled the economy, causing the Iranian currency to lose
much of its value, which in turn sparked inflation and widespread economic
hardships. The government in Tehran struggled to manage these crises, as
financial resources dwindled and social unrest grew. Trump’s economic warfare
left deep scars on the Iranian economy and a return to such policies would
likely exacerbate these challenges, leaving the Iranian government in an even
more precarious position.
It is also critical to recall the unprecedented actions taken by the Trump
administration, such as the targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani, the commander
of Iran’s elite Quds Force. This move, which shocked the world, escalated
tensions between the US and Iran to new heights. For the first time in recent
memory, the two nations stood on the brink of war. The assassination was a stark
reminder of the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, which Iran has
not forgotten. The specter of further such confrontations looms if Trump is
reelected.
In conclusion, as the world watches the US presidential election, the Iranian
government is more invested in the outcome than ever before. The stakes for
Tehran are incredibly high, as the gap between the two candidates’ policies on
Iran is vast. While one candidate may bring renewed pressure and confrontation,
the other offers the possibility of diplomacy.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist.
X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Trusting in the power of the US economy
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/October 31, 2024
Every BRICS summit ignites a debate on the future economic dominance of the US.
Are we witnessing the end of the US dollar’s reign as the main global currency?
Is China taking over trade globally? And, more importantly, will this potential
change impact the status of the US as the leading power in the world? While
everyone holds their breath and looks at an election process that puts in doubt
the core US institutions, the next few years are clearly likely to be a key
juncture for both America and the world.
There is no doubt that countries in the East and Global South are becoming more
prominent in the global economy. And this trend will undoubtedly continue. It is
also clear that China is becoming the main trading partner of many regions
outside the Western Hemisphere. Yet, despite these trends, the US dollar remains
the dominant currency in the world. And the US is still the dominant positive
force.
Indeed, roughly half of global trade is still invoiced in US dollars. The
currency accounts for 60 percent of global foreign exchange reserves, 40 percent
of global payments and 50 percent of all international debt. It has maintained
its share mostly by sidelining the euro. For example, SWIFT transactions, which
exclude several countries due to sanctions, show that the US dollar’s
involvement in transactions increased from 42.5 percent in August 2021 to 60
percent in July 2024, while the euro shrank from 39.5 percent to 12.4 percent
over the same period.
Despite the rise of the BRICS nations, there is greater trust in the US dollar
and the US economy than any of their rivals
This is only a partial element, but it symbolizes the trend. There is no doubt
that the war in Ukraine and the stability of the eurozone have played big roles
in this shift. Yet, despite sanctions and the inevitable rise of the BRICS
nations, there is greater trust in the US dollar and the US economy than any of
their rivals. And this maintains the US’ geopolitical dominance. America still
stands as a free economy that offers greater innovation and transparency than
other regions. I would also add the power of the US military as a key element in
the outsized role of the US dollar and, consequently, the country’s global
economic impact. More broadly, what has an impact is the outlook of the economy,
its dynamism and its access. So, while the US has been exhibiting a lack of
trust on the governmental level in recent years, most of the world’s innovation
has come from its private companies. I also believe that the resilience sector,
focused on defense, security and space, has continued to build trust in the
future of the US and thus its continued capacity to lead, if not dominate.
The development of a new type of US innovation is helping maintain its symbolic
geopolitical supremacy. The most obvious examples are Tesla and SpaceX. The
recent advances in Tesla’s driverless cars, the successful Starship mission and
the global demand for SpaceX’s Starlink satellites showcase how American
innovation strengthens its global influence. It is no longer the American
government but its private companies that are leading this influence. Together,
these technologies reflect a US strategy that leverages innovation for
resilience and strategic power worldwide.
Other companies are also contributing to this new global leadership. Palantir,
Anduril Industries, CrowdStrike and Varda Space Industries, to name just a few,
are bringing innovation to the resilience and deep-tech sectors and are keeping
the US at the forefront. This trickles down to many other sectors, positioning
the US as the world’s most innovative country. It is also clear that the power
of these companies has at its root the support of the US government. Yet, they
are answering the needs of many countries in terms of security and defense and
hence positively impacting the US’ global standing.
The country’s high debt levels and a rising fiscal deficit pose a genuine risk
to its global standing
It is also worth mentioning that the US’ share of global gross domestic product
has increased in the past 13 years, from 21.1 percent in 2011 to an estimated
26.3 percent in 2024. This growth keeps increasing the trust in the US and its
capacity to consistently adapt and transform. It is a translation of its free
market principles and free international access, which also support the
country’s global standing. The capacity to access and invest in this level of
innovation is unmatched. As a direct reference, most of the innovation in China,
which is also impressive, is not accessible to investors and its use is reserved
for China. The exact opposite is true for the US. For example, an international
investor can invest in SpaceX (although there are conditions) and Starlink can
be used globally. This is power and trust because transparency beats opacity.
There is no doubt that the US’ positioning has many future risks. Most
prominently, the country’s high debt levels and a rising fiscal deficit pose a
genuine risk to its global standing. Its debt is approaching 100 percent of GDP
and interest payments made up 13 percent of federal spending in 2024, surpassing
defense spending to become the third-highest category. This will limit the
resources available for key investments in infrastructure, defense and
innovation.
Moreover, the approach of printing money to get out of debt presents a risk that
can erode confidence in the US economy, weakening the dollar’s role as the
global reserve currency and diminishing America’s geopolitical influence. Some
countries are already hedging against that risk, as revealed by their gold
purchases and other diversification methods.
This is why the next US president will need to bring about a true shift and
unleash the country’s unmatched innovation capacity and dynamism, instead of
relying on artificial methods such as the concept that there is no better place
today. I will therefore not bet against the US as long as it stays true to its
principles of freedom, liberty and light regulation, wrapped up with true
meritocracy.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused
investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.