Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 27-28/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Unveiling the Truth Behind Hezbollah's False "Liberation Day" of South Lebanon on May 25, 2000
Officials say an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon wounds several civilians outside a hospital
One killed, 9 wounded in Israeli strike on Bint Jbeil
Southern Front: Intense Conflict Amid Unprecedented Escalation
Israeli army stages Lebanon attack simulation
Motorcyclist killed in Israeli strike near hospital in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah wages drone, rocket and artillery attacks on Israel
Hochstein working behind the scenes on Lebanon-Israel solution
Lazzarini: To Maintain UNRWA’s Operations in Lebanon
Lebanese rally in Brussels ahead of Syrian refugees conference
Syrian Migrants: Bou Habib Sounds the Alarm in Brussels
French presidential initiative: Latest developments
Moawad from Meerab: Challenges Compel Unified Efforts
Franjieh calls for presidential race among top 3 Christian leaders
Frangieh: I Will Not Withdraw My Candidacy
FPM and Berri: A Mutual Service Exchange
The Ceilings of a Hypothetical Dialogue with Hezbollah/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/May 27/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 27-28/2024
Netanyahu says deadly Israeli strike in Rafah was the result of a 'tragic mistake'
Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah
Rafah strikes could 'hinder' Gaza truce talks, Qatar says
EU's Borrell 'horrified' by Israeli strikes on Rafah camp
Macron says 'outraged' by Israeli strikes on Rafah
Israeli military investigates deaths of Gaza war detainees
EU-Israel relations take a nosedive as Spain, Ireland set to formally recognize a Palestinian state
Quebec Superior Court judge grants partial injunction against pro-Palestinian encampment at UQAM
Iran's acting president addresses new parliament after helicopter crash killing president, others
Iran further increases its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, watchdog says
Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium stock grows, talks stall, IAEA reports say
Polling Reveals What Americans Regard as the Greatest Foreign Security Threats
Ukraine drone targets second Russian long-range military radar, Kyiv source says
Polish official claims the US told Russia it would strike Russian targets in Ukraine if Putin used nuclear weapons
Baltic officials said they could send troops to Ukraine without waiting for NATO if Russia scores a breakthrough: report
Papua New Guinea says Friday's landslide buried more than 2,000 people and formally asks for help
Protests shut streets in Armenia's capital, roads in other parts to demand the prime minister resign
South Africa's election could bring the biggest political shift since it became a democracy in 1994
The Egyptian army announces the killing of a border guard member in a “shooting” at the Rafah crossing
Sources: European countries are seeking to classify the “Revolutionary Guard” on the terrorist list

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 27-28/2024
Turkey's Government Enables Terrorists/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/May 27, 2024
The Indispensable State/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/May 27/2024
The Muslim Persecution of Christians: A Censored Pandemic, Part 1/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/May 26/2024
Raisi’s death triggers regime crisis as Iranians celebrate/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 27, 2024
Raisi’s death: Iran must choose a safe transition pathway/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/May 27, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 27-28/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Video: Unveiling the Truth Behind Hezbollah's False "Liberation Day" of South Lebanon on May 25, 2000
Elias Bejjani/May 25, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75168/elias-bejjani-hezbollahs-bogus-liberation-resistance-day-3/
May 25, 2000, marked a pivotal moment in the history of South Lebanon, or so it seemed. The Israeli army withdrew, fulfilling a promise made by then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in the lead-up to the Israeli elections. However, what ensued was not a liberation but a betrayal orchestrated by a clandestine deal between Israel, Iran and Syria, leaving the Lebanese residents in South Lebanon, and their army, the South Lebanese Army (SLA), at the mercy of the Iranian terrorist armed  Jihadist proxy, Hezbollah.
Ehud Barak's election pledge, while seemingly noble in its intent, was overshadowed by the murky negotiations that preceded the Israeli Army's withdrawal, betraying its Lebanese allies. Through intermediaries from Germany, Sweden, and Jordan, a secretive deal was struck with the Syrian and Iranian dictatorial regimes, effectively handing over South Lebanon and its residents to Hezbollah's grip. This deal included dismantling the SLA and sealing off gates with Israel, leaving the residents defenceless against Hezbollah's aggression.
Contrary to Hezbollah's claims, the withdrawal did not constitute a liberation. Instead, it was a calculated move orchestrated by political treason and deception rather than genuine emancipation. Hezbollah's annual celebration of May 25th as "Liberation Day" is nothing but a charade built on lies, deception and manipulation.
The reality on the ground was far from liberation. Few day before the Israel Army withdrawal, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, openly threatened the residents of South Lebanon loudly and openly through all media facilities, instilling fear with his chilling warnings of cutting heads and slashing throats in their beds. These criminal and terrorist threats forced many residents to flee, seeking refuge in Israel, where they remain to this day, branded as traitors and denied the right to return to their homes.
Moreover, it is crucial to acknowledge the role of Syrian occupation in Lebanon during that period. The so-called "Liberation Day", of the South Lebanon, was not a result of Hezbollah's heroic efforts, but rather a consequence of geopolitical under the table deceptive deals orchestrated by foreign powers. Syrian occupation coerced forced the alleged-false narrative of liberation without any tangible basis in reality.
As we reflect on the events of May 25, 2000, it's imperative to strip away the facade and recognize the truth behind Hezbollah's false narrative of liberation. The residents of South Lebanon deserve justice, not manipulation and coercion. It's time to shed light on the dark realities obscured by political agendas and honour the resilience of those who were unjustly abandoned to the mercy of terrorism.
Hezbollah currently occupies all of Lebanon, including its southern regions, from which it has been attacking Israel since October 8, 2003, one day after Hamas's criminal and terrorist war against Israel on October 7, 2003.
We strongly believe that the so-called "Liberation Day" of South Lebanon by the terrorist Hezbollah must be cancelled and completely wiped from Lebanese memory.
In conclusion, Hezbollah is a terrorist, criminal, and jihadist military corps entirely affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Nasrallah and the rest of the members of this group openly acknowledge this relationship. Hezbollah declared an attrition war against Israel on October 8 last year under Iranian orders. Lebanon and the Lebanese people had no decision or say in this matter. Consequently, Hezbollah is entirely responsible for the killing, destruction, and assassinations carried out by the State of Israel in retaliation.
Hezbollah occupies Lebanon and is neither Lebanese nor a liberator. It does not represent the Shiites Lebanese community in Parliament but instead holds Lebanon and the Shiites hostage, leading to the deaths of many young people. Hezbollah because of its attrition war against Israel has devastated the south Lebanon regions, displaced 100,000 residents, and caused the destruction of 70 towns and villages.
Hezbollah is a humanitarian disaster, specializing in crime and smuggling, and is more dangerous than any mafia. Therefore, there is no salvation for Lebanon until its political, military, and occupational influence is ended, and all UN Resolutions addressing Lebanon are fully implemented by force.
 
Officials say an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon wounds several civilians outside a hospital
BINT JBEIL, Lebanon (AP)/Mohammed Zinaty/May 27, 2024
An Israeli strike targeting a motorcycle in southern Lebanon on Monday hit next to a hospital entrance, killing at least one person and wounding several civilians who were gathered outside, local health officials said. The strike killed the motorcycle driver in the town of Bint Jbeil. It was not immediately clear who the driver was. The Israeli army did not immediately give a statement on the strike but said it had targeted other areas of southern Lebanon in response to “terrorist launches.”The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has been exchanging strikes with Israeli forces in the border area almost daily since Oct. 8, a day after the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began. Mohammed Suleiman, director of the Salah Ghandour Hospital in Bint Jbeil, said they had received one person killed and nine wounded in the strike, most of whom were “civilians who were in front of the hospital, where family members and people accompanying the patients usually gather.” Two of the wounded were in “highly sensitive” condition, he said. The strike also caused minor damage to the hospital, an Associated Press photographer at the scene said. Israeli strikes have killed more than 400 people in Lebanon since the war in Gaza began, most of them militants with Hezbollah and allied groups but also including more than 70 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, strikes from Lebanon have killed 15 soldiers and 10 civilians. The clashes have displaced tens of thousands on each side of the border. Western countries, in particular the U.S. and France, have come forward with a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities on the Lebanon-Israel border. Hezbollah has refused to enter into an agreement until a cease-fire is implemented in Gaza. Initially, the proposals stipulated that Hezbollah would move its forces several kilometers away from the border, but a French diplomatic official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing negotiations said the latest proposal has abandoned this idea as Hezbollah would not agree to it unless Israel also halted its overflights in Lebanese airspace. Instead, the new proposal would rely on a strengthened presence of the official Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon to enforce the cessation of hostilities, with a long-term aim of negotiations for demarcation of the land border between Lebanon and Israel. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was expected to arrive in Beirut on a diplomatic visit Tuesday.

One killed, 9 wounded in Israeli strike on Bint Jbeil
Associated Press/May 27/2024
One person was killed and several civilians were injured Monday in an Israeli drone strike on a motorbike outside the Salah Ghandour Hospital in the southern town of Bint Jbeil. "An enemy drone" targeted "a motorcycle near the Salah Ghandour hospital in the town of Bint Jbeil", killing the motorcycle driver and wounding others, the state-run National News Agency (NNA) said, without specifying whether they were civilians. The Islamic Health Committee, affiliated with Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah group, runs the hospital in the southern town. The facility's administration said one person was killed and 9 others were wounded, four of them seriously. A photographer contributing to AFP at the site of the strike saw a charred motorbike near the hospital entrance. The Israeli army did not immediately give a statement on the strike but said it had targeted other areas of southern Lebanon in response to “terrorist launches.”
Mohammed Suleiman, director of the Salah Ghandour Hospital, said they had received one person killed and nine wounded in the strike, most of whom were “civilians who were in front of the hospital, where family members and people accompanying the patients usually gather.”Two of the wounded were in “highly sensitive” condition, he said. The strike also caused minor damage to the hospital. On Sunday, Israeli strikes targeted motorbikes in three different south Lebanon border villages, killing seven people including five Hezbollah fighters in Houla, Aita al-Shaab, and Naqoura on the coast. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said last week that Israel has "surprising plans" for Lebanon. His comments were mocked by Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who said that it was Gaza and Lebanon's Hezbollah that surprised Israel on October 7 and October 8.

Southern Front: Intense Conflict Amid Unprecedented Escalation
This Is Beirut/ 27 May 2024
The southern front experienced intense conflict amid an unprecedented escalation, marked by increased Israeli assassinations and continuous Hezbollah operations, aligning with statements from both sides about upcoming surprises. Hezbollah claimed on Monday morning that it had targeted, in response to Israeli attacks on southern Lebanese villages and homes, a building used by Israeli soldiers in the Margaliot settlement. Additionally, Hezbollah launched a focused attack on the Malikiya site with guided missiles and artillery, “hitting its defenses, equipment, and soldier positions.”
In retaliation, an Israeli drone strike targeted a motorcycle near Salah Ghandour Hospital in Bint Jbeil, resulting in one fatality and several injuries. The hospital sustained material damage from the blast, which shattered windows and damaged its exterior facilities. Moreover, the Israeli Army reported that a “Sky Rider” drone crashed inside Lebanese territory, while an investigation is underway. The Israeli warplanes bombed central Aytaroun and Haroun this morning. It also claimed to have targeted a building housing Hezbollah members in Yaroun and targeted Hezbollah personnel in Hula. It also struck a weapons storage facility in Mays al-Jabal and military infrastructure in Khiyam. During the night, the Israeli Army fired numerous flares over villages in the Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts. It launched several interceptor missiles over Naqoura, Alma al-Shaab, Tayr Harfa, and Dhayra, and conducted reconnaissance flights over the western and central sectors up to the Litani River.

Israeli army stages Lebanon attack simulation
Naharnet/May 27/2024
In recent weeks, the Israeli army’s 146th Division and the 205th Reserve Armored Brigade held a divisional and brigade exercise simulating “a maneuver in Lebanon,” the Israeli army said on Monday. “The exercise simulated combat scenarios in the northern arena, the rapid deployment of forces in the field, the functioning of the division and brigade headquarters and the readiness of the forces for an attack,” the Israeli army said in a statement. The exercises were carried out in a terrain that “simulates as much as possible the fighting in the depths of Lebanon,” the statement added. In recent weeks Hezbollah has stepped up its cross-border attacks on Israel, which it says are in support of Gazans and its ally Hamas, while Israel has struck deeper into Lebanese territory. The violence, which started on October 8, has killed at least 440 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including 84 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border.

Motorcyclist killed in Israeli strike near hospital in southern Lebanon
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/May 27, 2024
BEIRUT: An Israeli strike on Monday outside a hospital in south Lebanon killed one person, the latest deadly raid in the country’s south. Victim, Ali Wizani, on a motorcycle at the hospital entrance, was heading for medical tests. Fifteen other people sustained varying injuries, including seven civilians and eight health care workers at Salah Ghandour Hospital in the city of Bint Jbeil. The hospital security guard, Hassan Jouni, underwent surgery due to severe injuries. An Israeli combat drone carried out Monday’s attack during a peak time when patients were arriving at the hospital at the start of the week. For the first time since the hostilities began in the southern Lebanon border area, the Israeli army targeted the vicinity of a hospital on Monday morning.
The Israeli military has increased its efforts in recent days to apprehend individuals using cars or motorcycles on the roads, resulting in the fatalities of Hezbollah members and civilians. The Lebanese Ministry of Health condemned the brutal Israeli shelling that targeted the hospital. The hospital “is the only one still operating in this area from which residents have been displaced due to Israeli attacks,“ its director, Dr. Mohammed Sleiman, told Arab News. “When the drone carried out its attack on the hospital entrance, there were people gathered to enter, which caused injuries.”He said: “The hospital staff quickly evacuated the patients from the damaged front floors.
“We found that the shells used contained nails or iron fragments that left traces in the hospital building. “The hospital’s role is humanitarian. The Israelis know the hospital very well, and we follow all required instructions during wars.”Dr. Sleiman added: “In the July 2006 war, the hospital was subjected to direct shelling, and after today’s attack, we resumed work normally. “We receive all patients in addition to the wounded from Israeli attacks. We currently have 17 patients besides the war-wounded.
“We receive non-urgent surgeries, and we have a medical team residing in the hospital since the attacks began. Ambulances operate normally, and the medical staff comes to the hospital as usual. After the attack, doctors and nursing staff who were off-duty came to the hospital to help. “We do not suffer from any shortages of medicines and equipment, as the Ministry of Health supplies us with what we need.”
The Health Ministry described the hospital attack as a “full-fledged war crime and a new episode in the series of repeated and flagrant violations committed by Israel against health care facilities and health care workers in Lebanon, violating all human rights laws, the Geneva conventions, and all international laws and norms that stipulate the protection and respect of health care workers and the provision of safety for them during armed conflicts.” Hezbollah retaliated against the Israeli assault on the hospital by “targeting and destroying the newly installed spy equipment at the Miskaf Am site.”
Media outlets in Israel reported that “firefighting crews are working to extinguish a massive fire that broke out in the settlement of Kiryat Shmona after rockets were launched from Lebanon.”Hezbollah targeted “a building used by enemy soldiers in the Margaliot settlement with appropriate weapons and achieved confirmed casualties.”
The group also “launched an intense fire attack on the Al-Malikiyah position with guided missiles and artillery shells, targeting its garrison, its equipment, and the positions of its soldiers.”Hezbollah used “attack drones on targets inside the site and hit them accurately” in its retaliation. The Israeli army said that “a Sky Rider drone fell inside Lebanese territory, and the incident is being investigated.”The Israeli military said that it bombed a building where Hezbollah members were located in the Yaron border area on Sunday. Additionally, the air force targeted Hezbollah members in Hula, hitting a weapons storage facility in Mays Al-Jabal and military infrastructure in Khiam. The Israeli raid on the town of Yaron led to casualties. The border villages have not been spared from continuous Israeli bombardment, which it is said, aims to destroy homes and properties and burn crops with internationally prohibited phosphorus bombs. An Israeli army spokesman said, “The Israeli forces have increased their readiness for the war on Lebanon. Over the past weeks, the 146th Division and the 205th Reserve Armored Brigade conducted an exercise at the division and brigade level simulating ground maneuvers in Lebanon.” The spokesperson said “the exercise simulated combat scenarios on the northern front, the rapid deployment of forces in the field, the role of division and brigade command centers, and the readiness of forces for attack.” Also on Monday, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati discussed the security situation in the south with Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, the commander of UNIFIL Forces. The talks included preparations to submit the periodic report to the UN Security Council about the implementation of Resolution 1701 and the coordination between UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army.

Hezbollah wages drone, rocket and artillery attacks on Israel
Naharnet/May 27/2024
An Israeli drone struck Monday a motorbike in the southern town of Bint Jbeil as Hezbollah targeted a building used by Israeli soldiers in Margaliot and soldiers and equipment in the Malkia post. The group said it has carried out a combined drone, missile and artillery attack on al-Malkia, using suicide drones, guided missiles and artillery shells. The attacks were in response to Israeli strikes on villages and homes in south Lebanon, Hezbollah said. Five fighters and two civilians were killed Sunday in Israeli strikes in the southern border towns of Naqoura, Houla and Aita al-Shaab.
On Monday, a drone struck a motorbike near the Salah Ghandour Hospital in Bint Jbeil and Israeli jets raided Aitaroun's center and the southern border town of Yaroun. Israeli artillery meanwhile shelled Wadi Hamoul. Hezbollah later targeted surveillance equipment in Misgav Am and carried out a suicide drones attack on the Beit Hillel base, hitting Iron Dome missile defense positions, crews and soldiers. The group said the attack on Beit Hillel was in response to the Israeli strike on Houla Sunday. Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, has traded regular cross-border fire with Israel since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on southern Israel which triggered war in the Gaza Strip. In recent weeks Hezbollah has stepped up its cross-border attacks, which it says are in support of Gazans and its ally Hamas, while Israel has struck deeper into Lebanese territory. The violence has killed at least 440 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including 84 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border.

Hochstein working behind the scenes on Lebanon-Israel solution
Naharnet/May 27/2024
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein is visiting many countries in a bid to pacify the Lebanon-Israel border clashes, Asharq al-Awsat said Monday. Sources told the daily that Hochstein is holding his meetings away from the spotlight and has managed to set the main headlines for the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Hochstein had visited Lebanon in March in an attempt to tamp down tensions on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Hochstein had reportedly called for a gradual implementation of Resolution 1701 while Lebanon insists on a comprehensive implementation. Western countries, in particular the U.S. and France, have come forward with a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities on the Lebanon-Israel border. Hezbollah has refused to enter into an agreement until a cease-fire is implemented in Gaza.

Lazzarini: To Maintain UNRWA’s Operations in Lebanon
This Is Beirut/27 May 2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Aroldo Lázaro on Monday to discuss the security situation in southern Lebanon. The discussion also tackled the preparations for the periodic report to the UN Security Council on the implementation of Resolution 1701, as well as the coordination between UNIFIL and the Lebanese army. Moreover, Mikati met with UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, who expressed his commitment to maintaining UNRWA’s operations in Lebanon and the region despite financial challenges. They also discussed the assaults on UNRWA in Gaza and the pressure on the agency in Lebanon, including the recent blockage of access to UNRWA offices for over two months, which was temporarily lifted last Friday. Lazzarini emphasized the necessity for UN staff to access their offices to ensure the provision of essential services, especially in the challenging conditions of the camps, where poverty rates are high and educational disruptions have occurred. He warned that attacks on UNRWA aim to undermine the rights of Palestinian refugees and affect the agency’s ability to provide aid effectively, hoping to address these issues during his two-day visit and mobilize further support for refugees in Lebanon. The UNIFIL Head of Mission also explained the dire situation in Rafah and the lack of communication with colleagues on the ground. They also addressed UNRWA’s financial difficulties, exacerbated since January due to allegations against 12 employees involved in the October 7 events, leading 16 donor countries to freeze their contributions. Lazzarini mentioned that UNRWA took immediate actions, including suspending the implicated employees and requesting a review by former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, which found that UNRWA’s operational systems are robust. The meeting was held in the presence of UNRWA’s representative in Lebanon Dorothee Klaus and the head of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, Basil Hassan.

Lebanese rally in Brussels ahead of Syrian refugees conference
Naharnet/May 27/2024
Supporters of Lebanese parties, Lebanese expats and a number of Lebanese MPs staged a protest Monday in Brussels ahead of an annual international conference on Syrian refugees. The Lebanese protesters voiced rejection of perceived attempts to “keep the Syrians in Lebanon.” The Lebanese Forces had recently called for the protest, which witnessed the participation of its lawmakers Pierre Bou Saab and Elias Stephan as well as Free Patriotic Movement official Naji Hayek and representatives of the Marada Movement, the Kataeb Party and the civil society.
The participants carried Lebanese flags and stressed support for Lebanon in the face of the Syrian refugee crisis, decrying that it has placed huge burdens on Lebanon, especially its economy. The protesters also called on the international community and the European Union to “press for resolving this crisis” and for “supporting the refugees in their country and not in Lebanon.” Many Lebanese, including politicians, have long pushed for Syrians who have fled 13 years of civil war at home to return, blaming them for exacerbating Lebanon's woes, including a crushing economic crisis that began in late 2019. Lebanon says it currently hosts around two million people from Syria -- the world's highest number of refugees per capita -- with almost 785,000 registered with the United Nations. In recent months, politicians have ramped up anti-Syrian rhetoric, with Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah urging Lebanese authorities to open the seas for migrant boats to reach Europe to pressure for more Western aid. Earlier this month, the European Union announced $1 billion in aid to Lebanon to help tackle illegal migration, mostly of Syrians to nearby Cyprus, the bloc's easternmost member.
Lebanon has long heavily relied on Syrians for manual labor, especially in agriculture and construction. Lebanese security forces have intensified a crackdown on Syrians without residency permits, shutting down their businesses and forcing them to evacuate their homes.

Syrian Migrants: Bou Habib Sounds the Alarm in Brussels
This Is Beirut/ 27 May 2024
Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib warned against “an explosion of the situation in Lebanon (due to the massive presence of Syrians in the country) which, if it occurs, will have repercussions on neighboring countries and Europe.” He stressed that “maintaining the status quo on this issue poses an existential threat to Lebanon.”During the Brussels conference on Syria on Monday, Bou Habib criticized the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for its lack of cooperation in resolving the problem posed by the presence of Syrian migrants and displaced persons. The UN agency “has provided only incomplete data concerning Syrians in Lebanon,” the caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs rebuked, noting that the agency had “itself become a problem in the eyes of many Lebanese.”Bou Habib spoke at length about the problems facing the country as a result of the hundreds of thousands of migrants and displaced persons. He then presented a series of solutions to the representatives of the present countries, some of which could be implemented in cooperation with the UNHCR and other international organizations. The head of Lebanese diplomacy expressed the country’s willingness “to engage in constructive dialogue with the international community and international organizations with a view to drawing up a detailed roadmap for the return of displaced persons, with the exception of special cases protected by Lebanese law.”Bou Habib advocated “applying the principle of burden-sharing, through resettlement in third countries, of Syrians who cannot return home for political and security reasons.”He demanded “fair compensation for the Lebanese state on a temporary basis and not as an alternative, through direct support to its institutions, given the enormous burdens estimated at around 100 billion dollars, according to preliminary estimates from the World Bank.”

French presidential initiative: Latest developments
Naharnet/May 27/2024
French President's Special Envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, was expected to arrive in Beirut on a diplomatic visit Tuesday in a bid to break the presidential deadlock in the crisis-hit country. Le Drian will meet with Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday, Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said, adding that Berri will respond to a Quintet's statement after meeting Le Drian. The ambassadors of Egypt, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United States had said in a joint statement earlier this month that "Lebanon cannot afford to wait another month" without a president, stressing that consultations are needed to end the current political stalemate. "Those who refuse to participate in (a presidential) dialogue are responsible of the consequences," Berri was quoted as saying. Al-Akhbar newspaper had reported earlier this week that while in Lebanon Le Drian will also meet with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Quintet's ambassadors. The daily said that France is considering sending invitations to hold a dialogue conference in Paris that would gather the Lebanese political forces in order to discuss the presidential file.
Berri reportedly refused the Paris dialogue. "Why (would it be held) in Paris and not in Beirut or in an Arab country," Berri was quoted as asking. Ahead of Berri's meeting with Le Drian, the Speaker will meet Monday with U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson before she heads to Washington where she will brief other U.S. ambassadors on the outcome of the presidential discussions, Asharq al-Awsat said. Sources meanwhile told ad-Diyar that French President Emmanuel Macron is determined to raise the presidential and the Lebanese-Syrian border files with American President Joe Biden during a French-American summit on June 7. The daily said that Macron has floated the idea of deploying international forces on the Lebanese-Syrian border to stem flows of irregular migrants and weapons to Lebanon. The idea was rejected by Lebanese and Arab officials who visited Paris in the past weeks, ad-Diyar said. Western countries, in particular the U.S. and France, have come forward with a series of proposals for a cessation of hostilities on the Lebanon-Israel border. Hezbollah has refused to enter into an agreement until a cease-fire is implemented in Gaza.
Initially, the proposals stipulated that Hezbollah would move its forces several kilometers away from the border, but a French diplomatic official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing negotiations said the latest proposal has abandoned this idea as Hezbollah would not agree to it unless Israel also halted its overflights in Lebanese airspace. Instead, the new proposal would rely on a strengthened presence of the official Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon to enforce the cessation of hostilities, with a long-term aim of negotiations for demarcation of the land border between Lebanon and Israel.

Moawad from Meerab: Challenges Compel Unified Efforts
This Is Beirut/ 27 May 2024
MP Michel Moawad emphasized on Monday that “everyone realizes we are facing existential challenges on all levels.” These challenges, according to Moawad, include the national decision being hijacked, leading to conflicts unrelated to national interest but driven by Iranian influence and the Israeli-Iranian conflict in the region, affecting the lives, economy, and stability of Lebanese people. Other challenges include the Syrian presence in Lebanon, which is partly tied to border control, the obstruction of the presidential election, and the migration of young Lebanese due to economic and social conditions.
During his visit to Meerab to meet with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Moawad stressed that “these challenges compel us to enhance efforts to face them together and restore a state that can protect all Lebanese.”“We discussed this with the head of the Lebanese Forces and established the groundwork for practical steps to approach with the entire opposition,” added the MP. He considered that “we inherited a theoretical majority from the parliamentary elections that rejects any weapons outside state control, but it consists of fragmented opposition groups, which benefits ongoing obstruction and the failure to fully implement Resolution 1701 and pressure Hezbollah to prevent it from dragging Lebanon into an unwanted war. Thus, “while it’s natural for the opposition to be diverse, being coordinated in its actions is crucial, especially since it converges on a fundamental basis despite its diversity. We aim to unite MPs who share our vision, albeit with different approaches, as their presence in a neutral stance facilitates obstruction,” he said. In response to a question about the potential impact of Jean-Yves Le Drian’s visit on the presidential issue, Moawad expressed hope that “the international community will play a role in pressing against the ongoing obstruction and in enforcing the constitution. However, the primary responsibility lies with the Lebanese Parliament, which “must shoulder this national duty in the face of clear obstruction by Hezbollah and its allies.”Moawad described the two-hour meeting with Geagea as “productive and aimed at unifying efforts and coordination between the two parties and the opposition as a whole.”

Franjieh calls for presidential race among top 3 Christian leaders
Naharnet/May 27/2024
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh has suggested that the country’s top three Christian leaders nominate themselves for the presidency as an exit from the current presidential crisis, referring to himself, Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. “The balances have not changed and no one can elect a president today before a settlement in the region, which will reflect positively on Lebanon,” Franjieh added, in an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “Things are on the right track,” he went on to say. As for his main ally Hezbollah, Franjieh stressed that the party wants the election of a new president as soon as possible but “will not give up the characteristics it has specified.” “I will not withdraw (from the race), our camp will not ask for this, and when we reach a certain settlement we will act accordingly,” the Marada chief added. “I will not negotiate without my allies,” he said. Emphasizing that Lebanon is “governed by understandings,” Franjieh pointed out that “no president has ever been elected without a certain form of dialogue.”“Those opposing dialogue are obstructors one way or another and proposing dialogue in parliament is an exit and is not aimed at imposing anyone,” Franjieh said, adding that dialogue should be unconditional. Responding to a question, the Marada chief said that, if elected president, he would “make a step towards the FPM and the LF.”“I will go meet them,” he added. “We are the Christians of Arabism and democracy, the Christians of (late) president (Suleiman) Franjieh, and Christianity to us is a goal and not a means,” Franjieh went on to say.

Frangieh: I Will Not Withdraw My Candidacy
This Is Beirut/ 27 May 2024
Sleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada movement and candidate in the presidential election stated that Lebanon’s political balances remain unchanged and a president cannot be elected until a regional settlement occurs, positively impacting Lebanon. In an interview with local TV station Al Jadeed, Frangieh emphasized the need for a settlement to resolve Lebanon’s crisis. He noted that Hezbollah wants a president soon but won’t compromise on criteria, while some await the US election results. Frangieh affirmed he will not withdraw and will act according to any settlement reached. He highlighted France’s neutral stance and positive relations, noting a meeting next Tuesday with French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian. Frangieh stressed he won’t negotiate without his allies. He reiterated that Lebanon is governed by agreements and dialogue is essential for electing a president. Those opposing this are obstructing the process, and parliamentary dialogue should be without preconditions. He acknowledged that while everyone wishes for change, some realize the impossibility of certain changes and resort to populism at the expense of the people. He emphasized that the Constitution safeguards sectarian representation, particularly for Christians, and dismissing it is irresponsible. He also stated that if he becomes president, he will reach out to the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Forces, saying, “I will go to them.”
The Syrian Refugees Issue
Frangieh highlighted that his team was the first to address the dangers of the Syrian refugee issue. He stressed the need for state-to-state talks with Syria, dismissing the Caesar Act as an excuse. He pointed out that solutions come from state relations, though personal relationships can positively influence the outcomes.Regarding the Brussels Conference, he said Lebanon’s unity is crucial for solving its problems, and dialogue with Syria about the refugees is necessary.

FPM and Berri: A Mutual Service Exchange
Bassam Abou Zeid/This Is Beirut/27 May 2024
With the arrival of French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian in Lebanon on Tuesday, communications have resumed between Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) MP Gebran Bassil and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. MP Ghassan Atallah of the Strong Lebanon Parliamentary Bloc noted that the anticipated meeting with Berri was initially scheduled for the past few days. However, the crash and death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter accident and Berri’s subsequent trip to Tehran prevented it from happening.
According to sources closely monitoring these developments, the presidential dossier, particularly in light of Le Drian’s visit and the recent statement by the Quintet Committee’s ambassadors (US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar), is the primary focus of ongoing discussions. The objective is to explore the possibility of establishing a common vision with President Berri and, through him, with Hezbollah, regarding both the presidential election and the candidate who could best represent this vision. While political and non-political exchanges are being considered by both sides, a comprehensive agreement has yet to be reached. It is noteworthy that the key point of convergence between the parties is the FPM’s openness to dialogue, a format required by House Speaker Nabih Berri. Furthermore, alongside these communications, the Free Patriotic Movement is actively involved in the National Moderation Bloc’s initiative. While affirming its non-opposition to this initiative, the movement seeks additional clarification regarding the implementation mechanism. It is highlighted that Moderation Bloc MPs will discuss various scenarios for this mechanism with the French envoy.
Within the context of political and parliamentary collaboration between Aounists and Berri, President Berri allowed parliamentary committees to examine proposals brought forward by the FPM concerning the migration crisis, including a bill to regulate the legal status of Syrian migrants in Lebanon and a proposal for legislation organizing their temporary residency and repatriation. It seems that Berri has pledged to include them on the agenda of an upcoming general session, guaranteeing FPM participation and voting in favor of proposals and bids President Berri intends to adopt.

The Ceilings of a Hypothetical Dialogue with Hezbollah
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/May 27/2024
In light of the current impasse in Lebanon, there has been a lot of talk about dialogue. However, there are differences around the nature of this dialogue: Is it a dialogue or consultation? Between groups or a duo? The country will be back in the labyrinth of futile debates.
Meanwhile, the Quintet Committee holds its meeting, and American and French joint initiatives and proposals are presented. Some of them are aimed at restoring calm in the southern border through deals or understandings, and others to resolve the conundrum of the presidential elections.
With the momentum of these initiatives and the winds of regional settlements that must reach us, one matter that remains outside the scope of discussion is the future of Hezbollah’s role and its actual position regarding these proposals. All of this amounts to nothing more than circling around the issue without addressing it. Let us try to enter a hypothetical world in which the Lebanese opposition presents a cohesive and credible political front that has weight, and that it has decided to hold a dialogue with the party. What scenarios for a solution would the party engage with, from the most maximalist to the least demanding? What are the margins within which the party can operate with regard to two hypothetical themes of discussion: the party’s organic relationship with Iran, and Israel not launching a war on Lebanon?
First, we must account for the fact that it will be a year before matters are settled either way in the region, particularly in Gaza. It will be difficult to conclude the deals and settlements all parties are awaiting to understand where they stand. The Americans are busy with the presidential elections and the three tracks for the region they have already set up: ending the war and the day after in Gaza, deepening strategic ties with Saudi Arabia, and expanding Arab-Israeli normalization as part of a comprehensive settlement. Israel will need a year to address the war, its aftermath, and the domestic issues tied to it, as well as its relations with the Americans and the international community. Iran is concerned about the fate of Hamas and its future in Gaza and beyond, in the many other places throughout the region it exerts influence. Questions regarding its nuclear program remain open, and Iran’s complex domestic issues have been complicated by the accident that killed its president and foreign minister, as well as the uncertainty around when the race to succeed the Supreme Leader will begin.
Against this backdrop, what are the different potential stances we could expect from Hezbollah regarding a serious and sustainable settlement with its Lebanese partners? The first scenario is that the party, under regional and international pressure, agrees to military arrangements, especially in southern Lebanon, in exchange for a Lebanese settlement that restructures the political system and its allocation of positions. This would not undermine the principles of sects’ rights and public sector quotas on sectarian grounds. Rather, it would account for local demographic changes and domestic and regional political developments, even if these shifts are not entirely in favor of its Iranian patron. This settlement would require extensive legal and constitutional consultations and debates. However, it could grant the party the safeguards and reassurance it seeks. The deal would legitimize its arsenal and fighting force, allowing it to maintain them in one way or another, as well as ensuring that it retains the influence necessary to shape Lebanon’s foreign policy, international relations, and defense policy. This scenario is the most severe, as it undermines the Lebanese formula.
The second scenario is Hezbollah maintaining its current status. The party remains a political-military force that makes crucial national security and political decisions, as well as those related to Lebanon's identity and its regional and international posture, without being granted official legitimate status, which would burden it with political responsibility. This would allow Hezbollah to engage in settlements or understandings like the deal to demarcate the maritime border with Israel. This scenario is most likely if the regional situation does not change.
The third scenario is unlikely in the near term because it requires a comprehensive regional deal that includes Iran. This deal would not necessarily involve peace with Israel. Rather, it would focus on regional security arrangements and the roles of influential countries. This scenario would ensure Hezbollah a significant share of influence with the political system because of the realities it has established on the ground and the political, economic, and social changes unfolding in Lebanon.
In return, Hezbollah's weapons would be addressed after the regional settlement. Iran would probably retain the gains it has accumulated in such a regional peace deal. It is best placed to address the issue of Hezbollah's arms. De-escalation would extend Lebanon's relationship with Israel, and we would probably see a return to the 1949 Armistice Agreement or the emergence of a similar new arrangement. This hypothetical exercise aims to achieve several objectives. First, it allows us to realize that there is no way to solve the conundrum posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon without a settlement that involves Iran and addresses its roles in the region. Second, it shows that all the activity in and around Lebanon addresses this matter purely from the perspective of Israel's security. The domestic repercussions on Lebanon are disregarded. Third, any solution requires dialogue, but without political balance, dialogue is futile. The ultimate objective is to outline the margins of concessions Hezbollah would be prepared to offer, allowing the opposition to envision what it could offer in return as it seeks to bring Hezbollah back into the national fold if that is possible.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 27-28/2024
Netanyahu says deadly Israeli strike in Rafah was the result of a 'tragic mistake'
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/May 27, 2024
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that a “tragic mistake” was made in an Israeli strike in the southern Gaza city of Rafah that set fire to a camp housing displaced Palestinians and, according to local officials, killed at least 45 people.
The strike only added to the surging international criticism Israel has faced over its war with Hamas, with even its closest allies expressing outrage at civilian deaths. Israel insists it adheres to international law even as it faces scrutiny in the world’s top courts, one of which last week demanded that it halt the offensive in Rafah. Netanyahu did not elaborate on the error. Israel's military initially said it had carried out a precise airstrike on a Hamas compound, killing two senior militants. As details of the strike and fire emerged, the military said it had opened an investigation into the deaths of civilians. Sunday night's attack, which appeared to be one of the war’s deadliest, helped push the overall Palestinian death toll in the war above 36,000, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between fighters and noncombatants in its tally. “Despite our utmost efforts not to harm innocent civilians, last night there was a tragic mistake,” Netanyahu said Monday in an address to Israel’s parliament. “We are investigating the incident and will obtain a conclusion because this is our policy.”Mohammed Abuassa, who rushed to the scene in the northwestern neighborhood of Tel al-Sultan, said rescuers "pulled out people who were in an unbearable state.”“We pulled out children who were in pieces. We pulled out young and elderly people. The fire in the camp was unreal,” he said. At least 45 people were killed, according to the Gaza Health Ministry and the Palestinian Red Crescent rescue service. The ministry said the dead included at least 12 women, eight children and three older adults, with another three bodies burned beyond recognition. In a separate development, Egypt’s military said one of its soldiers was shot dead during an exchange of fire in the Rafah area, without providing further details. Israel said it was in contact with Egyptian authorities, and both sides said they were investigating. An initial investigation found that the soldier had responded to an exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants, Egypt’s state-owned Qahera TV reported. Egypt has warned that Israel’s incursion in Rafah could threaten the two countries’ decades-old peace treaty. Rafah, the southernmost Gaza city on the border with Egypt, had housed more than a million people — about half of Gaza's population — displaced from other parts of the territory. Most have fled once again since Israel launched what it called a limited incursion there earlier this month. Hundreds of thousands are packed into squalid tent camps in and around the city.
Elsewhere in Rafah, the director of the Kuwait Hospital, one of the city’s last functioning medical centers, said it was shutting down and that staff members were relocating to a field hospital. Dr. Suhaib al-Hamas said the decision was made after a strike killed two health workers Monday at the entrance to the hospital. Netanyahu says Israel must destroy what he says are Hamas’ last remaining battalions in Rafah. The militant group launched a barrage of rockets Sunday from the city toward heavily populated central Israel, setting off air raid sirens but causing no injuries. The strike on Rafah brought a new wave of condemnation, even from Israel's strongest supporters. The U.S. National Security Council said in a statement that the “devastating images" from the strike on Rafah were "heartbreaking." It said the U.S. was working with the Israeli military and others to assess what happened. French President Emmanuel Macron was more blunt, saying “these operations must stop” in a post on X. "There are no safe areas in Rafah for Palestinian civilians. I call for full respect for international law and an immediate ceasefire,” he wrote. The Foreign Office of Germany, which has been a staunch supporter of Israel for decades, said “the images of charred bodies, including children, from the airstrike in Rafah are unbearable.”“The exact circumstances must be clarified, and the investigation announced by the Israeli army must now come quickly," the ministry added. ”The civilian population must finally be better protected.”Qatar, a key mediator in attempts to secure a cease-fire and the release of hostages held by Hamas, said the Rafah strike could “complicate” talks, Negotiations, which appear to be restarting, have faltered repeatedly over Hamas’ demand for a lasting truce and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, terms Israeli leaders have publicly rejected. The Israeli military’s top legal official, Maj. Gen. Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi, said authorities were examining the strike in Rafah and that the military regrets the loss of civilian life.
Speaking to an Israeli lawyers’ conference, Tomer-Yerushalmi said Israel has launched 70 criminal investigations into possible violations of international law, including the deaths of civilians, the conditions at a detention facility holding suspected militants and the deaths of some inmates in Israeli custody. She said incidents of property crimes and looting were also being examined. Israel has long maintained it has an independent judiciary capable of investigating and prosecuting abuses. But rights groups say Israeli authorities routinely fail to fully investigate violence against Palestinians and that even when soldiers are held accountable, the punishment is usually light.
Israel has denied allegations of genocide brought against it by South Africa at the International Court of Justice. Last week, the court ordered Israel to halt its Rafah offensive, a ruling it has no power to enforce. Separately, the chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as three Hamas leaders, over alleged crimes linked to the war. The ICC only intervenes when it concludes that the state in question is unable or unwilling to properly prosecute such crimes. Israel says it does its best to adhere to the laws of war. Israeli leaders also say they face an enemy that makes no such commitment, embeds itself in civilian areas and refuses to release Israeli hostages unconditionally. Hamas triggered the war with its Oct. 7 attack into Israel, in which Palestinian militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seized some 250 hostages. Hamas still holds about 100 hostages and the remains of around 30 others after most of the rest were released during a cease-fire last year. Around 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have fled their homes. Severe hunger is widespread, and U.N. officials say parts of the territory are experiencing famine.

Dozens reported killed in Israeli strike on Rafah
Thomas Mackintosh - BBC News and David Gritten - BBC News/Mon, May 27, 2024
At least 45 people have been killed, including women and children, in an Israeli air strike on a camp for displaced Palestinians in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the Hamas-run health ministry says. Videos from the scene in the Tal al-Sultan area on Sunday night showed a large explosion and intense fires burning. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had killed two senior Hamas officials and that it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. Hours earlier, Hamas had fired eight rockets from Rafah towards Tel Aviv - the first long-range attacks on the central Israeli city since January. The incidents came two days after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel to immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of people are still believed to be sheltering. The Palestinian Red Crescent said Sunday’s air strike targeted tents for displaced people near a UN facility in Tal al-Sultan, about 2km (1.2 miles) north-west of the centre of Rafah. Graphic footage showed a number of structures ablaze next to a banner saying “Kuwaiti Peace Camp '1'”, as well as first responders and bystanders carrying several bodies. "We were sitting at the door of the house safely. Suddenly we heard the sound of a missile,” witness Fadi Dukhan told Reuters news agency. “We ran and found the street covered in smoke," he said, adding that he and others saw a girl and a young man who had been killed by the blast. The IDF said in a statement on Sunday that it had carried out an air strike in Tal al-Sultan that eliminated two Hamas leaders - Yassin Rabia, the chief of staff of the armed group’s fighters in the occupied West Bank, and Khaled Nagar, another senior official in the West Bank wing. “The IDF is aware of reports indicating that as a result of the strike and fire that was ignited several civilians in the area were harmed. The incident is under review,” the statement added. An initial statement insisted that the strike was “carried out against legitimate targets under international law, using precise munitions and on the basis of precise intelligence that indicated Hamas' use of the area”. In a speech on Monday, the IDF’s advocate-general described the incident in Rafah as “very difficult” and said it “regrets any harm to uninvolved civilians during the war”. The Hamas-run health ministry said on Monday afternoon that at least 45 people, including 23 women, children and elderly, had been killed in the strike on the camp. A senior official in Gaza’s Hamas-run civil defence agency, Mohammad al-Mughayyir, meanwhile told AFP that the agency’s rescue workers had seen “charred bodies and dismembered limbs”, as well as “cases of amputations, wounded children, women and the elderly”.
Médecins Sans Frontières said overnight that 15 dead people and dozens of wounded had been brought to a trauma stabilisation point which the charity supports.
“We are horrified by this deadly event, which shows once again that nowhere is safe. We continue to call for an immediate and sustained ceasefire in Gaza,” MSF added. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, Unrwa - the largest humanitarian organisation in Gaza - described the reports as “horrifying” and said it was not able to establish full communication with its team on the ground in Rafah. “Gaza is hell on earth. Images from last night are yet another testament to that,” said a post on X, formerly Twitter. The head of the Hamas-run government media office, Ismail al-Thawabta, said the camp was away from recent military action and in a designated “safe zone”, to which the IDF had told civilians in eastern Rafah to flee.
Qatar meanwhile warned that the strike could complicate its mediation efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal. Earlier on Sunday air raid sirens sounded around Tel Aviv as central Israel came under attack by Hamas rockets, fired from close to Rafah. The eight rockets were mostly intercepted by air defence systems or fell in fields. A house was damaged north of Tel Aviv. The barrage highlighted the threat Hamas still poses to people across Israel, although there were no reports of injuries.It also illustrates the challenges the IDF faces as it moves further into southern Gaza to oust Hamas from what it calls its “last major stronghold”. The military wing of Hamas said it had acted in response to "the massacre of civilians". About 1.5 million people had been taking refuge in Rafah before 6 May, when Israel began what it called “targeted” ground operations in eastern areas of the city to destroy the last remaining Hamas battalions and rescue hostages it believes are being held there. The UN estimates that more than 800,000 people have fled in response to orders from the IDF to evacuate to an “expanded humanitarian area” stretching from al-Mawasi, just north-west of Rafah, to the southern city of Khan Younis and the central town of Deir al-Balah. Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza to destroy Hamas in response to the group's cross-border attack on southern Israel on 7 October, during which about 1,200 people were killed and 252 others were taken hostage. At least 36,050 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Rafah strikes could 'hinder' Gaza truce talks, Qatar says
Agence France Presse/Mon, May 27, 2024
Israel's latest strikes near Gaza's southern city of Rafah could hinder talks towards a truce and hostage release deal, mediator nation Qatar said on Monday.
The foreign ministry voiced "concern that the bombing will complicate ongoing mediation efforts and hinder reaching an agreement for an immediate and permanent ceasefire".

EU's Borrell 'horrified' by Israeli strikes on Rafah camp
Agence France Presse/Mon, May 27, 2024
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Monday he was "horrified" by deadly Israeli strikes on a camp housing displaced Palestinians in Rafah, adding that the attacks "must stop immediately." "Horrified by news coming out of Rafah on Israeli strikes killing dozens of displaced persons, including small children. I condemn this in the strongest terms," Borrell wrote on X.

Macron says 'outraged' by Israeli strikes on Rafah
Agence France Presse/Mon, May 27, 2024
French President Emmanuel Macron voiced outrage on Monday over Israeli strikes on a tented camp for displaced Palestinians in Rafah that Gaza officials said killed at least 45 people and demanded an "immediate ceasefire." "These operations must stop. There are no safe areas in Rafah for Palestinian civilians," Macron said on X in English. "I call for full respect for international law and an immediate ceasefire." The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said the death toll had risen to 45 from the overnight Israeli strikes, which sparked fires that burned displaced people alive in their tents, many of them women and children. Israel's army said it was investigating the reports of civilians killed in the strikes, which have sparked condemnation across the Arab world.

Israeli military investigates deaths of Gaza war detainees
JERUSALEM (Reuters)/May 27, 2024
Israel is investigating the deaths of Palestinians captured during the Gaza war as well as a military-run detention camp where a human rights group has alleged abuse of inmates, the armed forces' chief prosecutor said on Monday. Citing accounts by former inmates and a doctor from the Sde Teiman base, the Physicians for Human Rights group said last month that detainees have suffered severe violence causing fractures, internal bleeding and even death. Palestinians have also accused Israeli soldiers of illegal killings during the almost eight-month-old Gaza war. "To date, 70 military police investigations have been opened into incidents that have raised suspicion of criminal offences," Major-General Yifat Tomer Yerushalmi, the military advocate-general, told a conference hosted by the Israel Bar Association. "These investigations also address allegations raised about the incarceration conditions at Sde Teiman detention centre and the deaths of detainees in IDF custody. We are treating these allegations very seriously and are taking action to probe them."

EU-Israel relations take a nosedive as Spain, Ireland set to formally recognize a Palestinian state
BRUSSELS (AP)/Raf Casert/May 27, 2024
Relations between the European Union and Israel took a nosedive on the eve of the diplomatic recognition of a Palestinian state by EU members Ireland and Spain, with Madrid suggesting sanctions should be considered against Israel for its continued attacks in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Spain that its consulate in Jerusalem will not be allowed to help Palestinians. At the same time, the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, a Spaniard, threw his full weight to support the International Criminal Court, whose prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others, including the leaders of Hamas. “The prosecutor of the court has been strongly intimidated and accused of antisemitism," Borrell said. “The word antisemitic, it's too heavy. It's too important.”Angry words abounded Monday, with Katz accusing Spain of “rewarding terror” by recognizing a Palestinian state, and saying that “the days of the Inquisition are over.” He referred to the infamous Spanish institution started in the 15th century to maintain Roman Catholic orthodoxy that forced Jews and Muslims to flee, convert to Catholicism or, in some instances, face death. “No one will force us to convert our religion or threaten our existence — those who harm us, we will harm in return,” said Katz. Even though the EU and its member nations have been steadfast in condemning the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack in which militants stormed across the Gaza border into Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostage, the bloc has been equally critical of Israel’s ensuing offensive that has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The latest attacks have centered on Rafah, where Palestinian health workers said Israeli airstrikes killed at least 35 people Sunday, hit tents for displaced people and left “numerous” others trapped in flaming debris. The U.N.'s top court, the International Court of Justice, on Friday demanded that Israel immediately halt its offensive on Rafah, even if it stopped short of ordering a cease-fire for the Gaza enclave. “Israel has to stop its offensive in Rafah,” Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said. Spain, Ireland and non-EU member Norway plan to make official their recognition of a Palestinian state on Tuesday. Their joint announcement last week triggered an angry response from Israeli authorities, which summoned the countries' ambassadors in Tel Aviv to the Israeli Foreign Ministry, where they were filmed while being shown videos of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and kidnapping. Albares criticized the treatment of the ambassadors. “We reject something that is not within diplomatic courtesy and the customs of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations,” he said. “But at the same time we have also agreed that we are not going to fall into any provocation that distances us from our goal,” he added. “Our aim is to recognize the state of Palestine tomorrow, make all possible efforts to achieve a permanent cease-fire as soon as possible and also, in the end, to achieve that definitive peace.”

Quebec Superior Court judge grants partial injunction against pro-Palestinian encampment at UQAM
CBC/Mon, May 27, 2024
A Quebec Superior Court judge has partially granted an injunction request by Université du Quebec à Montréal (UQAM) to prohibit pro-Palestinian protesters from setting up tents and other material within two metres of campus buildings. Justice Louis Joseph Gouin said in his decision issued Monday morning that putting in place security measures would reduce the surface area of the encampment without harming protesters' right to freedom of expression. UQAM filed for an injunction last Thursday against pro-Palestinian protesters who set up an encampment on its downtown campus on May 12. The university said protesters are posing a safety risk by blocking an emergency exit, being in possession of gasoline canisters and iron bars, and potentially "overloading" the university's electrical network with unauthorized extension cords. The judge has also ordered protesters to refrain from blocking access to buildings and to remove cardboard obstructing cameras. Protesters must also allow representatives of UQAM and the Montreal fire department to visit the camp to ensure that the site is safe.

Iran's acting president addresses new parliament after helicopter crash killing president, others
Nasser Karimi, The Associated Press/ May 27, 2024
Iran's acting President Mohammad Mokhber addressed the country's new parliament Monday in his first public speech since last week's helicopter crash that killed his predecessor and seven others. His speech comes as Iran prepares for a presidential election to replace the late Ebrahim Raisi in just a month, a vote that could see the previously behind-the-scenes bureaucrat potentially run alongside others. Meanwhile, Iran's new hard-line parliament is expected to select its new speaker Tuesday. In his remarks, Mokhber praised Raisi's time in office, noting that Iran's crude oil production— a key source of hard currency for the country — climbed to more than 3.6 million barrels a day. That comes after Oil Minister Javad Owji said Sunday that Iran was now exporting around 2 million barrels a day, despite Western sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic.Mokhber also asserted that the country’s economy remained stable under Raisi when Iran took military actions in Iraq, Israel and Pakistan in recent months. “Three countries were hit. We hit Israel, people find that figures and indexes are the same in the morning when they wake up, price of hard currency is the same, inflation is the same, liquidity is the same and the market is full of people’s needs,” Mokhber claimed. “This strength, this settlement and this power is not a usual thing, they all were because of guidance by the supreme leader and the sincere efforts of Ayatollah Raisi.” The Iranian rial has tumbled from a rate of 32,000 rials to $1 at the time of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Today, it stands around 580,000 to $1 in the wake of the U.S.' unilateral withdrawal from the accord and a series of attacks on shipping in the Mideast, first attributed to Iran and later involving Yemen's Houthi rebels as Israel's war against Hamas on the Gaza Strip began over seven months ago. On May 20, rescuers recovered the bodies of Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and others in a mountainous region in northwestern Iran following a fatal helicopter crash. Iran will hold presidential elections on June 28 to replace Raisi. On Thursday, a five-day registration period for candidates will open. Analysts have suggested that Mokhber could be one of those to register. Meanwhile, Monday marked the first day for Iran's newly elected parliament, following a March election that saw the country's lowest turnout since its 1979 Islamic Revolution. Of those elected to the 290-seat body, hard-liners hold over 230 seats, according to an Associated Press survey. Iran's parliament plays a secondary role in governing the country, though it can intensify pressure on a presidential administration when deciding on the annual budget and other important bills. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85, has the final say in all important state matters.

Iran further increases its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, watchdog says
Stephanie Liechtenstein/AP/May 27, 2024
VIENNA (AP) — Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to a confidential report on Monday by the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the latest in Tehran's attempts to steadily exert pressure on the international community. Iran is seeking to have economic sanctions imposed over the country's controversial nuclear program lifted in exchange for slowing the program down. The program — as all matters of state in Iran — are under the guidance of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and that likely won’t change in the wake of last week's helicopter crash that killed Iran's president and foreign minister. The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency also comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the wider Middle East over the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Israel and Iran have carried out direct strikes on each other’s territory for the first time last month. The report, seen by The Associated Press, said that as of May 11, Iran has 142.1 kilograms (313.2 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% — an increase of 20.6 kilograms (45.4 pounds) since the last report by the U.N. watchdog in February. Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Also as of May 11, the report says Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 6,201.3 kilograms (1,3671.5 pounds), which represents an increase of 675.8 kilograms (1,489.8 pounds) since the IAEA's previous report.
IAEA’s definition says that around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%. Iran has maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, has previously warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. He has acknowledged the U.N. agency cannot guarantee that none of Iran’s centrifuges may have been peeled away for clandestine enrichment.
Tensions have grown between Iran and the IAEA since 2018, when then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers. Since then, Iran has abandoned all limits the deal put on its program and quickly stepped up enrichment. Under the original nuclear deal, struck in 2015, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% purity, maintain a stockpile of about 300 kilograms and use only very basic IR-1 centrifuges — machines that spin uranium gas at high speed for enrichment purposes. limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for generating nuclear power in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. At the time, U.N. inspectors were tasked with monitoring the program. Monday's report also said that Tehran has not reconsidered its September 2023 decision to bar IAEA inspectors from further monitoring its nuclear program and added that it expects Iran “to do so in the context of the ongoing consultations between the (IAEA) agency and Iran.” According to the report, Grossi “deeply regrets” Iran's decision to bar inspectors — and a reversal of that decision “remains essential to fully allow the agency to conduct its verification activities in Iran effectively.” The deaths of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian have triggered a pause in the IAEA's talks with Tehran over improving cooperation, the report acknowledged. Before the May 19 helicopter crash, Iran had agreed to hold technical negotiations with IAEA on May 20, following a visit by Grossi earlier in the month. But those meetings fell apart due to the crash. Iran then sent a letter on May 21, saying its nuclear team wants to continue discussions in Tehran "on an appropriate date that will be mutually agreed upon,” the report said. The report also said Iran has still not provided answers to the IAEA's years-long investigation about the origin and current location of manmade uranium particles found at two locations that Tehran has failed to declare as potential nuclear sites, Varamin and Turquzabad. It said the IAEA’s request need to be resolved, otherwise the the agency “will not be able to confirm the correctness an completeness of Iran’s declarations" under a safeguards agreement between Tehran and the nuclear watchdog. The report also said there was no progress so far in reinstalling more monitoring equipment, including cameras, removed in June 2022. Since then, the only recorded data is that of IAEA cameras installed at a centrifuge workshop in the city of Isfahan in May 2023 — although Iran has not provided the IAEA with access to this data. The IAEA said that on May 21, IAEA inspectors after a delay in April “successfully serviced the cameras at the workshops in Isfahan and the data they had collected since late December 2023 were placed under separate Agency seals and Iranians seals at the locations.”
*Stephanie Liechtenstein, The Associated Press

Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium stock grows, talks stall, IAEA reports say
Francois Murphy/VIENNA (Reuters)/May 27, 2024
Iran is enriching uranium to close to weapons-grade at a steady pace while discussions aimed at improving its cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog are stalled, two confidential reports by the watchdog showed on Monday. The International Atomic Energy Agency faces a range of difficulties in Iran, including the fact it only implemented a small fraction of the steps IAEA chief Rafael Grossi thought it committed to in a "Joint Statement" on cooperation last year. "There has been no progress in the past year towards implementing the Joint Statement of 4 March 2023," one of the two reports to member states, both of which were seen by Reuters, said. Grossi travelled to Iran this month for talks with Iranian officials aimed at improving cooperation and IAEA monitoring in Iran. Follow-up talks have stalled, however, after the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last week. "The Director General reiterates to the new government of Iran his call for, and disposition to continue with, the high-level dialogue and ensuing technical exchanges commenced ... on 6-7 May 2024," the report added. It is 18 months since the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors last passed a resolution against Iran, ordering it to cooperate urgently with a years-long IAEA investigation into uranium particles found at three undeclared sites. While the number of sites has since been reduced to two, Iran has still not explained how the traces got there. "The Director General regrets that the outstanding safeguards issues have not been resolved," the report said, referring to those traces. France and Britain are pushing for a new resolution at next week's Board meeting, which the United States has so far not supported, diplomats say. Iran usually bristles at such resolutions, taking nuclear-related steps in response. The other report said Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons-grade, grew by 20.6 kg over the quarter to 142.1 kg as of May 11, and Iran later diluted 5.9 kg to a lower enrichment level. That means Iran now has roughly enough material enriched to up to 60% purity, if enriched further, for three nuclear weapons in theory, according to an IAEA yardstick. It has enough for more at lower enrichment levels. Western powers say there is no credible civil reason for Iran to enrich to that level. Iran says its aims are peaceful.

Polling Reveals What Americans Regard as the Greatest Foreign Security Threats
Gatestone Institute./May 27, 2024
On this Memorial Day observance that pays homage to those who have died defending our freedoms, a national poll, commissioned by Gatestone Foundation Trustee Lawrence Kadish of Old Westbury, Long Island, reveals that China has emerged as the nation considered the biggest national security to the United States. An overwhelming majority of Americans questioned believed that China will seek to dominate the remaining 21st Century at the expense of the United States. Vladimir Putin's Russia ranks second as America's biggest threat to our national security, with a little more than half of Americans questioned concerned that Putin is capable of launching a nuclear strike on the United States. The result underscores the poll's finding that a significant majority of Americans are concerned that we have entered a second chapter of the Cold War between the two countries that has considerable consequences for our nation's future. Nor do many Americans believe that Putin will stop with his invasion of Ukraine. Nearly three quarters of those surveyed believe Putin will target Western Europe next, and many are fearful he could unleash nuclear weapons to achieve victory. Turning to the Middle East, more than half of Americans surveyed believe Iran would launch nuclear missiles against Israel if given the opportunity and that the United States should take unspecified measures to prevent it. Responding to the question of whether North Korea could fire nuclear-tipped missiles against the United States, again, the majority of those Americans questioned said yes. The survey also reveals a startling loss of patriotism among those questioned, and a significant amount of anger by Americans who acknowledged their fears regarding the range of adversaries who now feel free to confront our nation. The survey was conducted by the national polling company McLaughlin & Associates, and the data had a margin of error of 3.1%. Its CEO, John McLaughlin, observed: "To the best of our knowledge, these questions have not been posed before to a statistically valid sample size of Americans and they reveal a nation that recognizes the external threats but is anxious about our current ability or willingness to respond to them. It is clearly a time of uncertainty, anxiety and not a little bit of anger."© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Ukraine drone targets second Russian long-range military radar, Kyiv source says
KYIV (Reuters)/Mon, May 27, 2024
A Ukrainian drone targeted a long-range radar deep inside Russia on Sunday, the second such strike in a week on infrastructure used by Moscow to monitor Ukraine's military activities, a Kyiv intelligence source said. The source said the strike was aimed at a "Voronezh M" radar near the city of Orsk in the Orenburg region some 1,500 km from the closest territory held by Kyiv's forces. The source, who declined to be named, did not say if there was any damage, but the move would make it one of the deepest attempted drone strikes in Russian territory since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. There was no immediate comment from Moscow on the matter, although Russia's Izvestia newspaper and other media outlets reported that a drone had come down in the Orenburg region on Sunday and that no civilian infrastructure had been hit. The Kyiv source also confirmed reports of an earlier Ukrainian drone attack on a "Voronezh-DM" radar in southern Krasnodar region on May 22. The Russian service of U.S. media outlet RFE/RL cited satellite imagery showing damage at the Voronezh-DM radar site in Krasnodar region. Reuters has not independently verified the imagery. Thord Are Iversen, an independent defenсe analyst and former Norwegian Navy officer, said the radars were part of Russia's ballistic missile early warning system. Russia is a major nuclear power. Their primary function, he told Reuters, was to detect and track intercontinental ballistic missiles and to determine if Russia was under nuclear attack. They also have secondary roles such as space tracking. Asked why the radars were targeted, the Kyiv source said: "They monitor the actions of the Ukrainian security and defence forces in the south of Ukraine." With Russia's invasion now in its third year, Kyiv has increasingly relied on long-range drones to target Russian military and energy targets, in particular oil refineries, in recent months. Russia has pounded Ukraine with long-range strikes throughout the war and renewed its aerial assault on the energy system, in what it says is retaliation for Kyiv's strikes on targets in Russia.
A Ukrainian media outlet cited an unnamed source saying the drone had flown 1,800 km (1,118 miles) in Sunday's attack. Earlier this month Ukrainian intelligence source said that Kyiv's longest-range drone attack to date had targeted an oil processing plant in Russia's Bashkiria region at a range of 1,500 km.

Polish official claims the US told Russia it would strike Russian targets in Ukraine if Putin used nuclear weapons
Cameron Manley/Business Insider/May 27, 2024
A Polish official said the US told Russia it would strike Russian targets in Ukraine if Putin used a nuke. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said such US strikes would result in a "world war." Putin has regularly issued nuclear threats since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Poland's foreign minister said the US had told Russia that it would strike Russian targets in Ukraine if Putin were to use nuclear weapons. In an interview with the Guardian, Radosław Sikorski seemed doubtful of Russia's threats about using nuclear weapons, saying: "The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn't kill anybody, we will hit all your targets [positions] in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we'll destroy all of them.""I think that's a credible threat," he said. "Also, the Chinese and the Indians have read Russia the riot act. And it's no child's play because if that taboo were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don't want that."Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev hit back at Sikorski's comments in a post on X, formerly Twitter, saying that US strikes on Russian targets would result in a "world war.""Americans hitting our targets means starting a world war, and a Foreign Minister, even of a country like Poland should understand that," Medvedev said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently threatened to use nuclear weapons since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In September of that year — when Russia began the partial mobilization of reservists for the war — Putin raised the specter of a nuclear conflict, adding that his warnings were "not a bluff."In February of this year, Putin made one of his most explicit threats after French President Emmanual Macron suggested NATO troops could be sent to Ukraine. Western nations "must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory," Putin said, adding: "All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don't they get that?"
In February, the Financial Times reported on the criteria that would lead Russia to consider a nuclear response, citing leaked documents. The criteria included conditions such as the destruction of 20% of Russia's strategic ballistic missile submarines or an enemy incursion on Russian territory, per the FT. In his interview with the Guardian, Sikorski also said that Europe had to learn to play the escalation game better by not fully revealing its hand to Putin. "Always declaring what our own red line is only invites Moscow to tailor its hostile actions to our constantly changing self-imposed limitations," he said.

Baltic officials said they could send troops to Ukraine without waiting for NATO if Russia scores a breakthrough: report
Matthew Loh/ Business Insider/Updated Mon, May 27, 2024 read
MPs for the Baltic States have been warning German officials that they might send troops to Ukraine. Their condition would be if Russia achieves a breakthrough in Ukraine, Der Spiegel reported. They issued the warning as part of an argument for Germany to support Ukraine more aggressively, per the outlet.
Members of parliament for the Baltic States warned German officials last week that their governments are poised to send troops to Ukraine if Russia achieves considerable gains, Der Spiegel reported. The German outlet reported on Sunday that the Baltic officials issued the warning while speaking with representatives for Berlin at the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn. Der Spiegel neither named any of the officials nor identified which countries they represented, but reported that they raised concerns about Chancellor Olaf Scholz's current policy toward the war. Scholz has been denying Ukraine permission to use German-supplied weapons in strikes on Russian soil, in line with Washington's stance of not allowing Kyiv to use donated weaponry for attacks beyond Ukraine's own borders. According to Der Spiegel, the Baltic officials were concerned that such policies created a half-hearted attempt to help Kyiv and might allow Russia to gain the upper hand in Ukraine. They said that if Moscow does gain significant ground in eastern Ukraine, their governments and Poland could move troops into the conflict zone even before Russia deploys its soldiers on their borders. The argument from the officials, according to Der Spiegel, was that treating Moscow with restraint could backfire and instead create an escalation. Soldiers take part in the combat shooting exercises of the Lithuanian army and the French-German brigade at the General Silvestras Zukauskas
Like Ukraine, the Baltic States — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — were previously part of the Soviet Union.
They've been some of NATO's most vocal members in pushing the rest of the alliance to intensify support for Kyiv, fearing that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may seek to continue his conquest in the region if he seizes Ukraine. Together with France's President Emmanuel Macron, they've repeatedly hinted that they aren't ruling out sending NATO troops to Ukraine. Officials in Estonia, in particular, recently signaled the possibility of deploying its troops to fill non-combat roles and free up Ukrainians to fight on the front lines. There are concerns that such actions could escalate the conflict quickly into a direct war between NATO and Russia. Press services for the defense ministries of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider. Why Russia's western neighbors are getting skittish. The concerns reported by Der Spiegel come as Russia launched a renewed assault in northeastern Ukraine, striking the city of Kharkiv and capturing several settlements in the surrounding region. Military observers say the Kremlin can't take Kharkiv with the resources it's deployed there so far, but Russia has been shelling the city and inflicting civilian casualties.
On the main front in the east, Ukraine has been struggling for months to hold back a grinding Russian advance after its supplies from the US began to dwindle. The aid has resumed after months of stalling in Congress, but Kyiv says Western equipment often arrives too late to turn the tide of the war because conditions keep changing. Meanwhile, Russia stoked alarm among its neighbors last week with a new defense ministry draft proposing changing its maritime borders with Finland and Lithuania in January 2025. The draft was uploaded to Russia's Registry of Laws website on Tuesday but was later removed. On Thursday, Tallinn officials said Moscow had removed 24 of 50 buoys marking Russia's borders with Estonia on the Narva River. The officials said Russia has been contesting the buoys' locations. On Sunday, six NATO nations — Norway, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — said they would construct a unified "drone wall" with unmanned aerial vehicles and more advanced technologies to strengthen their borders. Their concerns aren't just centered on a full-scale Russian invasion. Finland, for example, said Russia has been trying to overwhelm Finnish border officials with waves of migrants trying to enter its borders. Norway, Finland, Estonia, and Latvia share land borders with mainland Russia, while Poland and Lithuania share land borders with Belarus, a close ally of the Kremlin. May 27, 2024: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that Poland was once part of the Soviet Union.

Papua New Guinea says Friday's landslide buried more than 2,000 people and formally asks for help
MELBOURNE, Australia (AP)/Mon, May 27, 2024
A Papua New Guinea government official has told the United Nations more than 2,000 people were believed to have been buried alive by Friday's landslide and has formally asked for international help. The government figure is roughly triple the U.N. estimate of 670 killed by the landslide in the South Pacific island nation's mountainous interior. The remains of only six people had been recovered so far. In a letter seen by The Associated Press to the United Nations resident coordinator dated Sunday, the acting director of the South Pacific island nation’s National Disaster Center Luseta Laso Mana said the landslide “buried more than 2000 people alive” and caused “major destruction” at Yambali village in the Enga province. Estimates of the casualties have varied widely since the disaster occurred, and it was not immediately clear how officials arrived the number of people affected. The International Organization for Migration, which is working closely with the government and taking a leading role in the international response, has not changed its estimated death toll of 670 released on Sunday, pending new evidence. “We are not able to dispute what the government suggests but we are not able to comment on it," said Serhan Aktoprak, the chief of the U.N. migrant agency's mission in Papua New Guinea. “As time goes in such a massive undertaking, the number will remain fluid,” Aktoprak added. The death toll of 670 was based on calculations by Yambali village and Enga provicincial officials that more than 150 homes had been buried by the landslide. The previous estimate had been 60 homes. The office of Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape did not respond Monday to a request for an explanation of what the government estimate of 2,000 was based on. Marape has promised to release information about the scale of the destruction and loss of life when it becomes available. Determining the scale of the disaster is difficult because of challenging conditions on the ground including the village's remote location, a lack of telecommunications and tribal warfare throughout the province which means international relief workers and aid convoys require military escorts. At least 26 tribal warriors and mercenaries were killed in a battle between two warring tribes in Enga in February, as well as an unconfirmed number of bystanders. The national government's lack of reliable census data also adds to the challenges of determining how many are potentially dead. The government estimates Papua New Guinea’s population at around 10 million people, although a U.N. study, based on data including satellite photographs of roof tops, estimated in 2022 it could be as high as 17 million. An accurate census has not been held in the nation in decades. The landslide had also buried a 200-meter (650-foot) stretch of the province's main highway under debris 6 to 8 meters (20 to 26 feet) deep which creates a major obstacle to relief workers. Mana said the landslide would have a major economic impact on the entire country. "The situation remains unstable” due to the shifting ground, “posing ongoing danger to both the rescue teams and survivors alike,” Mana wrote to the United Nations. An excavator donated by a local builder Sunday became the first piece of heavy earth-moving machinery brought in to help villagers who have been digging with shovels and farming tools to find bodies. Working around the still-shifting debris is treacherous. Mana and Papua New Guinea's defense minister, Billy Joseph, flew on Sunday in an Australian military helicopter from the capital of Port Moresby to Yambali, 600 kilometers (370 miles) to the northwest, to gain a firsthand perspective of what is needed. Mana’s office posted a photo of him at Yambali handing a local official a check for 500,000 kina ($130,000) to buy emergency supplies for the 4,000 displaced survivors. The purpose of the visit was to decide whether Papua New Guinea's government needed to officially request more international support. Earth-moving equipment used by Papua New Guinea's military was being transported to the disaster scene 400 kilometers (250 miles) from the east coast city of Lae. Traumatized villagers are divided over whether heavy machinery should be allowed to dig up and potentially further damage the bodies of their buried relatives, officials said.

Protests shut streets in Armenia's capital, roads in other parts to demand the prime minister resign
YEREVAN, Armenia (AP)/May 27, 2024
Protesters demanding the resignation of Armenia's prime minister on Monday blocked main streets in the capital city and other parts of the country, sporadically clashing with police. Police said 196 people have been detained in Yerevan. Protests have roiled the country for weeks, sparked by the government's return of four border villages to Azerbaijan. The demonstrations are spearheaded by Bagrat Galstanyan, a high-ranking cleric in the Armenian Apostolic Church and archbishop of the Tavush diocese in Armenia’s northeast, where the returned villages are located. Although the villages were the protests' rallying point, they have expanded to express a wide array of complaints against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government. Top figures in Gastanyan's Tavush for the Homeland movement told a huge rally in Yerevan on Sunday that they support Galstanyan becoming the next prime minister. The decision to turn over the villages in Tavush followed a lightning military campaign in September, in which Azerbaijan’s military forced ethnic Armenian separatists in the Karabakh region to capitulate. After Azerbaijan took full control of Karabakh, about 120,000 people fled the region, almost all from its ethnic Armenian population. Ethnic Armenian fighters backed by the Armenian military had taken control of Karabakh in 1994 after a six-year war. Azerbaijan regained some of the territory after fighting in 2020 ended an armistice brought on by a Russian peacekeeping force, which began withdrawing this year. Pashinyan has said Armenia needs to quickly define the border with Azerbaijan to avoid a new round of hostilities.

South Africa's election could bring the biggest political shift since it became a democracy in 1994
CAPE TOWN, South Africa (AP)/May 27, 2024
South Africans will vote Wednesday to decide whether their country will take its most significant political step since the moment 30 years ago when it brought down apartheid and achieved democracy. This national election will not be as momentous as the one South Africa held in 1994 — few have been. Then, Nelson Mandela led the African National Congress party to victory as Black South Africans who were the majority were allowed to vote for the first time. It officially ended a half-century of racial segregation under apartheid — a violently enforced system that attracted the world's outrage — and hundreds of years of white minority rule. But while the ANC still governs in 2024, it is amid rising discontent caused largely by high levels of unemployment and poverty. That could result in a majority of South Africans choosing another party this week over the one that led them to freedom. “Thirty years of South African democracy does not mean we should endure an eternity under the ANC,” John Steenhuisen, the leader of the main opposition Democratic Alliance party, said in the run-up to the election. Any change is not expected to be sweeping, though. The possible repercussions are complex because while several polls have the ANC's support at less than 50%, suggesting it is in danger of losing its majority for the first time, no opposition party has risen to a position to overtake it. The ANC is still widely expected to be the largest party, well ahead of an increasing number of opposition movements that are splitting the disaffected vote.
But without an outright majority, the ANC would likely have to strike agreements or coalitions with others to remain in government and reelect President Cyril Ramaphosa. That would end its political dominance of post-apartheid South Africa and herald a new era, where the ANC co-governs. The ANC won six successive national elections, starting with the one that made Mandela the first Black president in 1994. But from a high of gaining nearly 70% of the vote 20 years ago, it has experienced a steady decline in support while South Africa grapples with deep socio-economic problems, some of which were left over from apartheid. The ANC has also been criticized for the corruption scandals that have plagued it and for not tackling the country's violent crime problem. There were an average of 83 homicides a day in the last three months of 2023. A failure in basic government services impacts many in the country of 62 million, with communities, towns and parts of major cities going without water and electricity. The issue that stands out, though, is joblessness and the resulting poverty. South Africa's official unemployment rate is ranked the world's worst at 32%, and it's even higher — at 45% — for young people aged between 15 and 34. That sits at odds with the country's status as the most advanced on the African continent. The World Bank estimates more than half of South Africans live below the poverty line.
“Together we will do more and we will do better,” ANC leader Ramaphosa said in what's almost become a party motto. At the ANC's last major rally this weekend, he said it still represents the aspirations of South Africa's people and promised to prioritize job programs and extend social support for the millions that rely on government grants. The ANC asserts it is the only party that can effectively govern South Africa and while it's undoubtedly facing its biggest electoral challenge, analysts point out that it has the most effective grass-roots campaigning machine and has traditional support among older South Africans and those in rural areas, voices that are generally given less airtime. The possibility of the ANC clinging onto its majority has not been ruled out. The election will take place on one day, with nearly 28 million people registered to vote across the nation's nine provinces. They will decide the makeup of the national Parliament but also the provincial legislatures. More than 50 parties are registered to contest the national election, a record number, and independent candidates have been allowed to stand for the first time. South Africans don't vote directly for their president, but rather for parties. Those parties get seats in Parliament according to their share of the national vote and lawmakers elect the president, who has always been from the ANC because of its parliamentary majority. Just over 80% of South Africans are Black, but it's a multiracial country, with significant numbers of people who are white, of Indian heritage or with biracial ethnicity. Mandela referred to South Africa as a “Rainbow Nation” as he attempted to harness that diversity into a new unity after apartheid. But three decades later, poverty still disproportionately affects the Black majority. While they disagree strongly on policy and are in no way united, the main opposition parties, from the centrist DA to the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters and the new MK Party of former President Jacob Zuma, repeat one theme: that the ANC has failed to live up to its 1994 promise, when it swept to victory under the slogan “A Better Life For All.” The ANC's fading allure may be seen most clearly among young people, the South Africans in that 15-34 age bracket who didn't experience apartheid or have no memory of it and many of whom are now voters. This election could give voice to a new generation, who are aware of apartheid and the ANC's role in defeating it through stories told by their parents and grandparents but don't see how it helps them three decades later. “The youth were not born, so we can’t tell them about fighting for freedom,” said Simphiwe Mpungose, a provincial organizer with the new MK Party. “They are concerned about what they see now.”

The Egyptian army announces the killing of a border guard member in a “shooting” at the Rafah crossing
London/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 27, 2024
The military spokesman for the Egyptian Armed Forces announced today, Monday, that the Egyptian army is conducting an investigation “by the competent authorities into the shooting incident in the Rafah border area, which led to the martyrdom of one of the personnel in charge of insurance.” Shooting between Israeli forces and Palestinian gunmen
The Egyptian Cairo News channel quoted a security source as saying that preliminary investigations into the Rafah incident indicate gunfire between Israeli forces and Palestinian gunmen. The source, which the channel did not name, added that preliminary investigations indicate that fire was fired in several directions, “and that the Egyptian insurance agent took protective measures and dealt with the source of the fire.” The source indicated that Egypt “warns against compromising the security and safety of Egyptian security personnel deployed on the border,” and also warns of the repercussions of the Israeli military operations on the Philadelphia axis. It also called on the international community to “assume its responsibilities regarding the eruption of the security situation on the border with Gaza.” The channel later quoted an official security source as saying that the Israeli attack on the Philadelphia axis “creates field and psychological conditions that are difficult to control and likely to escalate.” He added, “We are aware of the plans of advocates of sedition, incitement, and excitement, and our national responsibilities are above all else.”
Israeli investigation
The Israeli army said earlier that it was investigating reports of an exchange of fire between Israeli and Egyptian soldiers near the Rafah border crossing with Gaza. The army added in a statement, “A few hours ago (today, Monday), a shooting incident occurred on the Egyptian border. “The incident is under review, and there are ongoing discussions with the Egyptians.” For its part, the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" reported earlier that an Egyptian soldier was killed in an exchange of fire with the Israeli army. The newspaper quoted sources in the Israeli army as saying that the Egyptian soldier was the one who initiated the shooting. Israel took control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing this month while intensifying its military offensive in the area, which sparked criticism from Egypt. Egypt is concerned about the possible displacement of Palestinians from southern Gaza due to the attack, and has repeatedly accused Israel of obstructing the arrival of humanitarian aid to the Strip, which is What Israel denies. Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979 and cooperated closely on security issues related to the borders between Israel, Sinai, and the Gaza Strip. Israel has imposed a siege on Gaza since Hamas took control of the Strip in 2007, while Egypt is tightening procedures on the border. Security incidents between the two countries are rare. In October 2023, two weeks after the start of the war in Gaza, Israel said that one of its tanks was hit. By mistake, an Egyptian site was located near the border with Gaza, while Egypt said that a number of its border guards were slightly injured. In June 2023, three Israeli soldiers and an Egyptian security personnel were killed in a clash on the border.

Sources: European countries are seeking to classify the “Revolutionary Guard” on the terrorist list
Brussels/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 27, 2024
Several European Union countries, including Germany, are seeking to classify the Revolutionary Guards in Iran as a “terrorist” organization based on a German court ruling, diplomats said in statements to the German News Agency. Germany, among other countries, asked European Union legal officials to examine a ruling from a court in the city of Dusseldorf, which found that an Iranian government agency was responsible for an attempted arson attack on a synagogue. European Union diplomats told the German News Agency that the EU's legal system confirmed that the ruling could be sufficient. They pointed out that the Dusseldorf court ruling achieves a difficult and important step. Some countries are pressuring the European Union to find a way to classify the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. But officials, including European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, repel these efforts. They say that they have not found a legal basis for such a step yet, and they are not confident that it will gain the support of all members of the European Union. First, a national body must prosecute the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for committing terrorist activities, in accordance with European Union law, in order to impose the penalty of classifying it as a terrorist organization. Last April, European Union foreign ministers, at the request of the European Parliament, discussed classifying the Revolutionary Guards on the terrorist list. The Revolutionary Guard then warned the Europeans against making the “mistake” of including it on the blacklist of “terrorist” organizations. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, said that the Europeans must “bear the consequences if they make a mistake.” The issue of classifying the Revolutionary Guards on the terrorist list was strongly raised last year in several Western countries, including the European Union and Britain, and it turned into a “thorny issue” in light of some European parties’ reservations about the step for fear of its repercussions. The demands revolved around reasons: Including sending drones to Russia, as well as the growing Iranian regional role, as well as the role of the “Guards” in suppressing the protests. The United States classifies the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization. Iran tried to push a request to remove it from the list during the faltering negotiations on reviving the 2015 “nuclear agreement,” which was rejected by the Joe Biden administration.
British legislators pressured Rishi Sunak's government last November to classify the Revolutionary Guards on the terrorist list, against the backdrop of thwarting assassination plots against opponents and journalists in Britain. A source at the British Foreign Office said in January last year that Britain was seriously considering classifying the Guard as a terrorist organization, but it had not reached a final decision. At the beginning of February last year, British media reported that the government had “temporarily” halted the project to classify the “Guards” on the terrorist list, after opposition from the then Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, despite the insistence of the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Security. Last October, the British newspaper The Guardian reported that Cleverley’s opposition was due to concerns about the possible expulsion of the British ambassador in Tehran, and Britain losing its remaining influence in Iran. Some reports spoke of British concerns about the impact of the move on the nuclear talks with Tehran.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 27-28/2024
A study by the Turkish writer Özay Bulut from the Caitstone Institute shows, with facts, evidence and dates, the reality of governance in Turkey dominated by the Brotherhood master, Erdogan, the financier, advocator and supporter terrorism, terrorists, jihad and jihadists.
Turkey's Government Enables Terrorists
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/May 27, 2024
Turks earning the minimum wage cannot afford their rents, and have difficulty paying utility bills. Many people cannot even afford to buy food, while Erdogan's government has chosen to spend its resources on aggressive wars and cooperation with terrorist groups and regimes in the region such as Hamas, Islamic State (ISIS), the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. "In 2012, the Turkish government reportedly donated $300 million to Hamas as the group set up shop in Turkey. A Turkish nongovernmental organization with ties to the government, the Foundation for Human Rights (IHH) [which also organized the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla], has transferred cash payments to its branch in the Gaza Strip since 2010. Hamas uses these payments to fund terrorism... The court explicitly ruled that the Turkish bank Kuveyt Turk Bank 'helped finance the Hamas.'" — Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, November 29, 2023. Meanwhile, according to a 2023 report, a staggering 98% of the population in Turkey is struggling to meet their basic needs, with 83.75 million people unable to achieve the minimum income required for a decent standard of living.
Erdogan's government nevertheless flows its resources to almost every terrorist group in the region to pursue Muslim Brotherhood-style Islamist ideological and territorial goals, impose sharia law, to harm or destroy "infidel" nations, and to establish its Islamist dominance throughout the world.
Any future financial cooperation between the West and Turkey should depend on the Turkish government's human rights record towards the Turkish people and requiring that Turkey end its relationships with all these terrorist groups and regimes that have cost the lives of thousands of innocent people in the region.
Turks earning the minimum wage cannot afford their rents, and have difficulty paying utility bills. Many people cannot even afford to buy food, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has chosen to spend its resources on aggressive wars and cooperation with terrorist groups and regimes in the region such as Hamas, Islamic State, the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Since 2002, Turkey has been ruled by the Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a vocal supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), a movement that seeks to establish a worldwide Islamic caliphate based on Islamic sharia law. For 22 years, Erdogan's policies have not only impoverished Turkey's people by ruining the country's economy, but also have brought wars, violence, and bloodshed to the wider region. Most recently, on April 20, as a sign of his utmost support for Hamas terror group, Erdogan received Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas Political Bureau, at the Dolmabahçe Presidential Palace in Istanbul. The first signs of a possible nationwide defeat of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) became visible, however, on March 31. The AKP received its biggest electoral blow in nationwide municipal and local elections that reasserted the opposition as a political force and reinforced Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) as the president's chief rival. Erdogan's AKP lost in every major city across Turkey. The main reason seems to be the decline of the economy. As the Turkish lira continues to plummet, and crushing unemployment and inflation skyrocket, more people are struggling to cope with an immense decrease in purchasing power.
"Turkey's economy is in tatters," reported Euronews in 2022.
"Runaway inflation and a collapsing lira have pushed millions of Turks to the brink of financial ruin and slammed factories, farmers and retailers across the country. "More than two-thirds of people in Turkey are struggling to pay for food and cover their rent, according to a survey by Yöneylem Social Research Centre, fuelling a surge in mental illness and debt." Nearly two years after that assessment, the economic situation today is even worse. Inflation, in 2024, has soared to almost 70%, according to official data. Turkey's central bank, citing the continuing need to counter inflation, raised its key interest rate to 50%. The Turkish lira has weakened even further, to a new record of 30 liras to the US dollar, with forecasts that it will reach 40 liras to the dollar by the end of this year. Turks earning the minimum wage cannot afford their rents, and have difficulty paying utility bills. Many people cannot even afford to buy food, while Erdogan's government has chosen to spend its resources on aggressive wars and cooperation with terrorist groups and regimes in the region such as Hamas, Islamic State (ISIS), the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Below is a brief list of the terror groups and regimes that Erdogan's government enabled in pursuit of pro-jihad ideological and territorial gains.
Islamic Republic of Iran
As the Counter Extremism Project notes:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has aggressively sought to remake the Middle East under its dominion, mainly by anchoring loyal 'proxies' in the region.
"Some of Iran's proxies in the Middle East include Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and others. Where its proxies have not been able to take root, Iran has engaged in subversive activities via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to undermine its rivals and enhance its influence. Iran's quest for regional dominance has created tremendous instability in the region and inflamed wars that have left thousands dead." Between 2012 and 2015, however, Iran relied on Ankara as well as Turkish banks and gold-traders to circumvent US sanctions. Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), detailing the Iran-Turkey cooperation, called it "The Biggest Sanctions-Evasion Scheme in Recent History":
"A dual Iranian-Turkish national, [Reza] Zarrab was the swashbuckling gold trader who had helped Iran evade sanctions with the help of Turkish banks in 2013 and 2014, yielding Iran an estimated $13 billion at the height of the efforts to thwart Tehran's nuclear ambitions. A leaked report by prosecutors in Istanbul in March 2014 suggested that Zarrab spearheaded a second sanctions-busting scheme involving fake invoices for billions more in fictitious humanitarian shipments to Iran that were processed through Turkish banks."
Turkey remains a major enabler of Iran's Islamist regime. The US government has recently added various people and companies from Turkey to the US sanctions list for aiding Iran's nuclear and military programs.
On March 20, 2024, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) targeted three procurement networks – based in Iran, Turkey, Oman and Germany – that have supported Iran's ballistic missile, nuclear, and defense programs:
"These networks have procured carbon fiber, epoxy resins, and other missile-applicable goods for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization (IRGC ASF SSJO), Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL), other U.S.-designated entities in Iran's defense industrial base, and Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA), which is linked to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).
"Through complex covert procurement networks, Iran seeks to supply rogue actors around the world with weapons systems that fuel conflict and risk countless civilian lives," said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. "The United States will continue to use our tools to disrupt these networks and hold accountable those countries that would help proliferate Iran's drones and missiles."
Meanwhile, Turkey is coordinating its response to the Hamas-Israel war with Hamas's primary patron, Iran, the FDD reported. Since Hamas' October 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis, Turkish officials, including Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, have openly met with their Iranian counterparts to coordinate an anti-Israel response. A meeting on November 1 resulted in both officials advocating for "peace" while threatening Israel with a broader regional war.
Muslim Brotherhood
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party also openly supports the Muslim Brotherhood, whose motto is:
"Allah is our objective; the Prophet is our leader; the Quran is our law; Jihad is our way; dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope."
According to the Counter Extremism Project:
"Despite banning and censoring thousands of oppositionist news outlets since taking the presidency in 2014, Erdoğan allows a handful of pro-Brotherhood stations to operate within the country. Stations such as Rabia TV, al-Sharq, and al-Watan (formerly Misr Alaan)—run by exiled Egyptian Brotherhood members such as former Secretary General Mahmoud Hussein and Brotherhood politician Basim al-Khafagy—often broadcast pro-Islamist messaging including glorified accounts of Brotherhood clashes with the Egyptian government and threats directed at Western-owned companies in Egypt to leave the country.
"Analysts have also suggested that Turkey has supplied weapons and activists to the Muslim Brotherhood for its activities in Egypt. Turkish intelligence officer Irshad Hoz, for example, was arrested by authorities in Egypt in connection to the Brotherhood. Egypt has also accused the Turkish government of conspiring with the Muslim Brotherhood. In November 2017, Egyptian authorities detained 29 individuals on suspicion of espionage for Turkey. Egypt's General Intelligence Services (GIS) alleged that they had been passing information to Turkish intelligence services as part of a plot to bring the Muslim Brotherhood back to power in Egypt."
In early 2019, Turkey allegedly deported some members of the Muslim Brotherhood. In an interview with BBC in 2022, however, Ali Hamed, press spokesman of the Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey, denied allegations about the detentions of the MB members in Turkey and the closures of MB-affiliated TV channels:
"No Egyptian channels have been closed in Turkey. All of the Egyptian TV channels in Turkey that have a stance against the [Egyptian] coup are still active and not even one of them has been closed." When BBC asked Hamed if the MB had received any official or unofficial request from Turkish authorities to stop or reduce their work in Turkey, Hamed replied:
"No such thing has happened. They have not made such a request to us, and our work is still continuing."
The AKP government, however, is trying to falsely portray the MB as a "pro-democracy movement." After US President Donald Trump announced in 2019 that he was considering declaring the international Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, a spokesman for Erdogan's Justice and Development Party responded, questionably, that such a move "would hurt democratization and human rights across the Middle East while helping ISIS."
This was an extremely misleading statement by the AKP spokesperson: for years, Turkey operated as a transit hub for jihadists heading to Syria and Iraq, beginning from 2011 and the emergence in the region of ISIS.
The Islamic State (ISIS)
In a 2015 report, "A Path to ISIS, Through a Porous Turkish Border," the New York Times detailed the process for ISIS members to enter Syria to engage in jihad and other crimes against humanity. The government of Turkey was also financially involved in ISIS activities. In 2014, for instance, BuzzFeed News reported how ISIS smuggled Syrian oil into Turkey.
Dr. Mordechai Kedar, an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups, in 2020, described Turkey's relationship with ISIS:
"2014 marked the year when ISIS became a very real threat to the Middle East. Within one year, the group managed to take over a third of Iraq and half of Syria, with 200,000 fighters under its control. ISIS quickly became successful at producing oil and selling it as an important source of income. It also managed to ensure a constant supply of weapons, ammunition, vehicles, and advanced communication devices.
"The ability of ISIS to become a functioning state so quickly is largely due to its relationship with President Erdoğan in Turkey.
"ISIS has had strong connections to Turkey over the years, whether through its oil industry or through its willingness to shield wanted members of the Muslim Brotherhood. This "neighborly" relationship was essential to ISIS's success, and it continues to be reflected in Turkish decisionmaking....
"Not only did President Erdoğan never launch any counterterror operations to disrupt ISIS's networks or recruitment activities, but he provided it with assistance."
Kedar continued that Turkish contributions to the flourishing of ISIS were most apparent in areas such as providing money (through the oil business), allowing volunteers to use Turkish territory to go to Syria and Iraq to join ISIS, illegally dispatching arms to jihadists, and allowing ISIS forces to launch attacks on their opponents from Turkish territory.
Al-Qaeda-Affiliated Groups in Syria
The Turkish Armed Forces and al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadists have occupied areas of northern Syria since 2016. These jihadists originated from Jabhat al-Nusra and appear inspired by Al-Qaeda's doctrine of global jihad.
One group is the al-Qaeda affiliated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant") that is occupying the Syrian city of Idlib. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies:
"In May 2018, the group [HTS] was added to the State Department's existing designation of its predecessor, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Today, HTS can be thought of as a relatively localized Syrian terrorist organization, which retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from al-Qaeda in 2017."
A 2021 study by the Middle East Institute details how Turkey and HTS are both occupying and exploiting parts of northwest Syria:
"The most significant shift in HTS economic policy occurred in July 2017, when the group took over the Bab al-Hawa crossing, one of the biggest sources of revenue in NW [north-west] Syria and a particularly strategic acquisition in terms of the relationship with Turkey."
In January 2018, the Watad Petroleum Company was formed in HTS-occupied northwest Syria and granted exclusive rights to import oil derivatives and gas from Turkey into the area. In June 2020, HTS began replacing the Syrian pound with the Turkish lira, indexing the prices of goods to the lira. The Turkish government, through its massive economic support to the group, thereby became a lifeline for the jihadist HTS.
Another Syrian city the Turkish military is occupying together with jihadist forces is Afrin.
In January 2024, the Berlin-based European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR) and Syrians for Truth and justice announced they filed a criminal complaint concerning the human rights violations that Islamist armed militias have been committing in Afrin:
"In January 2018, the Turkish army and allied armed militias invaded the northern Syrian region of Afrin. The so-called military operation "Olive Branch" lasted for over two months, beginning with intensive aerial bombardment followed by a ground invasion. As Turkish forces and Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups seized control of the region, the predominantly Kurdish population was driven from their homes and stripped of their livelihoods.
"What began back then still continues to this day. Officially, Afrin is administered by Syrian local councils, but de facto the region has been under Turkish control since March 2018. Turkish-backed armed groups operating under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army (SNA), which had already committed crimes in many places, have imposed arbitrary rule in Afrin. With Türkiye's knowledge, they systematically commit atrocities, including arbitrary arrests of civilians, sexual violence, torture, as well as systematic looting and killings.
"These human rights violations committed by Turkish-backed and Islamist militias constitute crimes under international law and can be investigated anywhere in the world. Together with six survivors of the crimes, ECCHR, Syrians for Truth and Justice (STJ) and their partners filed a criminal complaint with the German Federal Public Prosecutor's Office in January 2024, calling for a comprehensive investigation into war crimes and crimes against humanity"
Hamas
The terrorist organization Hamas receives significant funding, matériel and political support from Turkey. After Hamas's October 7 massacre against 1,200 Israelis, instead of condemning and expelling Hamas from Turkey, Erdogan called the terror group "a liberation movement". His public endorsement of Hamas and hostility to Israel killed Turkey-Israel diplomatic relations. The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies summarizes how the Turkish government provides Hamas with financial, military, intelligence and diplomatic support:
"Hamas established a presence in Turkey in 2011 at the direct invitation of the Turkish government... Since then, Turkey has provided a safe haven for senior Hamas leadership. Saleh al-Arouri, currently Hamas's deputy political chief, temporarily relocated from Damascus to Turkey following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war to establish a Hamas branch there. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned al-Arouri in 2015.
"Hamas maintains offices in Turkey, although these locations are not publicly known. In 2015, Jihad Yaghmour, a Hamas operative who played a role in the abduction of IDF soldier Nahshon Waxman, became Hamas's representative to the Turkish government. According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Yaghmour "liaises between Hamas and the Turkish government and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
"Erdogan openly takes meetings with senior Hamas leadership, most recently in July 2023, when he hosted Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Ankara granted Haniyeh Turkish citizenship in 2020. His deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, also received a Turkish passport.
"In 2012, the Turkish government reportedly donated $300 million to Hamas as the group set up shop in Turkey. A Turkish nongovernmental organization with ties to the government, the Foundation for Human Rights (IHH) [which also organized the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla], has transferred cash payments to its branch in the Gaza Strip since 2010. Hamas uses these payments to fund terrorism. Jihad Yaghmour leads another Turkish NGO that raises money for Hamas. In 2020, a U.S. District Court identified Yaghmour as a financier of a 2015 Hamas terrorist attack that killed two Israelis in the West Bank. The court explicitly ruled that the Turkish bank Kuveyt Turk Bank 'helped finance the Hamas.'
"In 2018, Israel arrested and deported Kamil Takli, a Turkish law professor and Hamas financier. Takli admitted during an interrogation with Israeli officials that Hamas operates in Turkey and receives military support from Ankara. Turkey-Hamas collaboration is facilitated by SADAT, a private military contractor in Turkey led by an Islamist general with close ties to Erdogan. Israeli security officials believe that SADAT is responsible for supplying Hamas with weapons and materiel. In July 2023, Israeli authorities seized 16 tons of explosive material that originated in Turkey and were bound for Gaza, apparently intended for Hamas rockets."
Erdogan, a Muslim Brotherhood supporter, also supports Hamas, which is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2017, Erdogan directly quoted a hadith (a reported saying by Islam's prophet, Mohammed) about Judgement Day, used in Hamas's charter, that calls for the destruction of Jews:
"Abu Huraira reported Allaah's Messenger (sall Allaahua layhiwa sallam) as saying: The last hour would not come unless the Muslims will fight against the Jews and the Muslims would kill them until the Jews would hide themselves behind a stone or a tree and a stone or a tree would say: Muslim, or the servant of Allaah, there is a Jew behind me; come and kill him; but the tree Gharqad would not say, for it is the tree of the Jews."
Meanwhile, according to a 2023 report, a staggering 98% of the population in Turkey is struggling to meet their basic needs, with 83.75 million people unable to achieve the minimum income required for a decent standard of living.
Erdogan's government nevertheless flows its resources to almost every terrorist group in the region to pursue Muslim Brotherhood-style Islamist ideological and territorial goals, impose sharia law, to harm or destroy "infidel" nations, and to establish its Islamist dominance throughout the world.
Any future financial cooperation between the West and Turkey should depend on the Turkish government's human rights record towards the Turkish people and requiring that Turkey end its relationships with all these terrorist groups and regimes that have cost the lives of thousands of innocent people in the region.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20664/turkey-enables-terrorists
**Picture enclosed/Erdogan (then serving as prime minister) poses beside Hamas leaders Khaled Mashaal (center) and Ismail Haniyeh (left) during a meeting in Ankara, Turkey on June 18, 2013. (Image source: Turkish Prime Minister Press Office/Yasin Bulbul/AFP via Getty Images)

The Indispensable State
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/May 27/2024
Benjamin Netanyahu anxiously reads the reports about the International Criminal Count, the International Court of Justice and Spain, Ireland and Norway’s recognition of a Palestinian state. A total of 147 countries now recognize the State of Palestine. He tells himself: The flood of the state is more dangerous than the flood launched by al-Sinwar.
The security reports make him even more anxious. Israel has never been embroiled in eight months of war of attrition that has depleted its soldiers and tarnished its image and it appears to be incapable of deciding the battle in its favor. He also has to deal with the war launched by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, some “messages” launched by Iraqi factions and the strikes by the Houthis against shipping in the Red Sea.
Netanyahu can kill more Palestinians, but he can’t put an end to the war. The invasion of Rafah will be costly and lead to a flood of calls for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Even the United States that has always been generous with its support now believes that Israel will never enjoy security if the Palestinians don’t obtain their own state.
Netanyahu thinks that the Palestinians never believed in peace with Israel. He believes that Yasser Arafat, who shook hands with Yitzhak Rabin at the White House, was searching for a foothold in the Palestinian territories themselves from where to start expanding his state. He has long been convinced that “Palestinian state” was a long-term project aimed at uprooting the state of Israel.
That is why he spent the majority of his long term in power attempting to destroy everything that could act as a foundation for that state to become reality. He launched a large-scale settlement campaign to eat away at Palestinian territories. He used all means at his disposal to undermine the Palestinian Authority and prevent it from benefiting the legitimacy it enjoys in the world. He banked on the division between Fatah and Hamas and on bolstering Israel’s position in the region without needing to take the bitter pill of accepting a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu was not the sole blind warrior. Ariel Sharon never abandoned the dream of eliminating the Palestinians. He took advantage of the global upheaval after the September 11 attacks to besiege the headquarters of the Palestinian president as if he never forgave Arafat for leaving Beirut alive and returning to reside in Palestinian territories. Netanyahu is aware that a ceasefire will be a blow against him. He knows this from the protests held by the families of the hostages and the calls for holding him to account and putting him on trial. So, he forges ahead with the war and continues the bloodbath. Reports only deepen his obsession of searching for a victory that would overshadow debates about his shortcomings and defeat the “wolves” that are preparing to pounce on him from inside and outside his government.
He has never experienced such a crisis. The US is still trying to humor him, but it also views him as a heavy burden on Israel, the Palestinians, the region and America itself. He cannot relinquish American support, but a price must be paid to keep benefitting from it. The US has a real interest in implementing the two-state solution. It believes it is necessary to end the conflict, support moderates and deprive Iran of a card that has allowed it to infiltrate maps, reside there and change their features.
Netanyahu also knows that moderate Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have played a decisive role in persuading western capitals that there can be no stability in the Middle East without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Arab foreign ministers have stressed that a ceasefire must be accompanied with a political process that leads to the establishment of a state within a specific timeframe.
The battle of the state is open, but the journey is not easy. An Israeli government capable of taking what Israelis deem as “difficult decisions” must be formed. Chief among these decisions is accepting the idea of a Palestinian state and a return to respecting international resolutions.
The Palestinians must also be united to address the wave of support for the Palestinian state. The Palestinians are calling on the world to champion their rights. The world also has the right to call on the Palestinians to take into account that the establishment of their own state must be conditioned with the recognition of Israel and international guarantees to the Jewish state.
Would Hamas be able to accept this even through the Palestine Liberation Organization? What will be the position of the “axis of resistance,” specifically Iran, especially since the Palestinian state can only be born through America’s approval?
And finally, the US must take a firm position in making Israel accept the two-state solution given that there can be no other viable option.
At a commencement speech at West Point military academy, US President Joe Biden stressed the importance of his country. He said: “Thanks to the US Armed Forces, we’re doing what only America can do as the indispensable nation, the world’s only superpower.”
The statement underlines America’s responsibility in ending the injustice against the Palestinian people and putting out the chronic fire that has exhausted the Middle East. The US is required to carry out consultations to come up with a serious and guaranteed mechanism because the vast majority of the world now believes that the Palestinian state is indispensable for the Middle East to catch its breath.

The Muslim Persecution of Christians: A Censored Pandemic, Part 1
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/May 26/2024
Few phenomena are as widespread as they are virtually unknown — at least in the West — as the worldwide persecution of Christians, especially at the hands of Muslims.
The general facts are undeniable and have been and continue to be documented in a number of reports issued by a variety of human rights organizations around the world.
According to one of the most recent compilations, Open Doors’ “World Watch List, 2024,” which was published in January 2024, and which annually ranks the top 50 nations where Christians are most persecuted for their faith, in 2023, 4,998 Christians around the world — 13 a day — were “killed for faith-related reasons.” Another 4,125 were illegally detained or arrested, and 14,766 churches and other Christian institutions were attacked, many destroyed.
Overall, the global persecution of Christians remains higher than ever, with 365 million believers suffering “high levels of persecution and discrimination for their faith.” One in seven Christians around the world (14%) is persecuted. In Africa, that number grows to one in five (20%), while in Asia it is as much as two in five — meaning 40% of all Christians are persecuted on that continent.
The Worst Offender: Islam
Christians suffer “extreme levels of persecution” in the top 13 of the 50 ranked nations. They are: 1) North Korea, 2) Somalia, 3) Libya, 4) Eritrea, 5) Yemen, 6) Nigeria, 7) Pakistan, 8) Sudan, 9) Iran, 10) Afghanistan, 11) India, 12) Syria, 13) and Saudi Arabia. The form of persecution experienced in these 13 worst offenders ranges from being assaulted, raped, imprisoned, or murdered on being identified as a Christian or attending (often underground) churches.
Rather tellingly, the “extreme persecution” meted out to Christians in 11 of these worst 13 nations comes either from “Islamic oppression” or takes place in Muslim-majority nations. This means that approximately 84% of the absolute worst persecution around the globe takes place in the name of Islam.
This trend affects the entire list: the persecution that Christians experience in 37 of the 50 nations (or 74%) also comes either from Islamic oppression or occurs in Muslim-majority nations.
Real People, Real Tragedies
While the above numbers are important, including in displaying the magnitude of the problem, one should not lose sight of the real people they represent. What they experience, when read in detail — girls chained and gang raped; Christians burned alive for supposedly “blaspheming” Muhammad; Muslim husbands and wives stabbing and poisoning each other whenever one apostatizes to Christ; another 30 having their heads sawn off just for the heck of it — is bloodcurdling.
The following, for example, are among the most recent incidents to occur as of this writing (excerpted from the March 2024 edition of my monthly “Muslim Persecution of Christians”):
Russia: On March 22, Muslim terrorists armed with automatic weapons launched an attack, massacring at least 139 people and injuring more at Crocus City Hall. ISIS quickly claimed credit for the attack, saying it was intentionally designed to target “thousands of Christians.”
Uganda: On two separate occasions, Muslims slaughtered two Christian men for leading Muslims to Christ. Also in March, a Muslim man murdered his 19-year-old daughter after learning she had embraced Christ, and another man beat and scorched his wife and 10-year-old daughter with boiling water for the same reason.
Somalia: On Good Friday, Muslims connected to the Islamic terror group Al Shabaab (“the youth”) slaughtered six Christians from bordering Kenya for spreading Christianity.
Kenya: On March 8, Muslims ambushed and slaughtered an evangelist and seriously wounded three other Christians.
Nigeria: The ongoing Muslim genocide of Christians there include:
March 26: “Herdsmen Kill Pastor, Five Other Christians in Central Nigeria”
March 27: “Pastor, His Family and Other Christians Killed in Nigeria”
March 28: “Herdsmen Kill Seven Christians in Central Nigeria”
Pakistan: On March 6, police arrested Ashbeel Ghauri, an 18-year-old Christian youth, after his Muslim classmates accused him of blaspheming against Islam (in reality, he had refused to renounce Christ and convert to Islam). Once a promising college student, he now faces 10 years in prison. Also, and as usual, several young Christian girls were abducted by Muslim men, raped and, in some instances, forcibly converted to Islam (with police and judges siding with the rapists). And, after a local Muslim vowed to prevent Christians from celebrating Easter in their church, the building went up in flames hours before Resurrection Day.
Also, and as usual, dozens of churches, cemeteries, and public crucifixes were vandalized, torched, and desecrated all throughout Western European regions with large Muslim populations.
As mentioned, these are just a few examples from the latest report. Every month contains similar, often worse, accounts, both in quantity and quality.
Why Is This Happening?
As to why this happening — and why Muslims commit the lion’s share of the persecution 365 million Christians around the world experience — Islamic doctrine sheds light. Shari‘a, that body of teachings that Muslims are obligated to adhere to, teaches hate for and violence against all non-Muslims. In the words of Koran 60:4, “We [Muslims] renounce you [non-Muslims]. Enmity and hate shall forever reign between us — until you believe in Allah alone.” Such sentiments are to be applied to all non-Muslims — “even if they be their parents, children, siblings, or extended family” (58:22; see also 3:28, 4:89, 4:144, 5:54, 6:40, 9:23). Based on such verses, any number of fatwas, authoritative Islamic decrees from venerable sheikhs, call on Muslims to do things like hate their non-Muslim wives (while “physically” enjoying or benefitting from them) and to hate and be disloyal to the Western nations they reside in, even if they benefit from them. In short, and as the Islamic State once explained in an unambiguously titled article, “Why We Hate You & Why We Fight You”: “We hate you, first and foremost, because you are disbelievers.” (Lest it seem that ISIS is an aberration that hardly speaks for Muslims, a Pew poll found that in just 11 nations, as many as 287 million Muslims — just those who answered honestly — sympathized with and/or supported ISIS.)

Raisi’s death triggers regime crisis as Iranians celebrate
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 27, 2024
President Ebrahim Raisi’s sudden death last week illustrated how hollowed-out at the top the Islamic Republic had become. It is not just that the list of those slated to replace him looks starkly feeble, but also that many believed that the complex shenanigans for elevating the unpopular Raisi to the presidency in 2021 marked him out as a likely shoo-in as supreme leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s long-anticipated passing. This leaves the latter’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the most widely talked-about next supreme leader — an unaccountable, hereditary succession that would undercut the ayatollahs’ arguments for deposing the shah’s monarchy in the first place. Mojtaba is a shadowy figure, known for enforcing his father’s agenda and managing his sprawling financial empire from behind the scenes. “The winner from Raisi’s death is Mojtaba,” said a former Iranian minister.
The incompetent spectacle around Raisi’s death — with professional rescue teams struggling to be allowed access amid a clumsy media crackdown — sparked a firestorm of conspiracy theories among Iranians over whether his death was an inside job. Vladimir Putin was unable to resist remarking that the two accompanying helicopters that survived the incident were Russian-made. Only the aging American craft crashed. Online posts compared the supreme leader’s stoic demeanor at the funeral of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian with his uncontrollable sobbing at the 2020 memorial for Qassem Soleimani, along with the conspicuous failure to accord Raisi the epithet of “ayatollah” in Khamenei’s perfunctory eulogy, which paid far more attention to events in Gaza. “The administration of the country will not be disrupted at all,” was Khamenei’s dismissive assessment of the impact of Raisi’s absence.
There were widespread reports of fireworks parties and Iranians celebrating behind closed doors. What sort of regime sends their president and foreign minister up in a 50-year-old helicopter, through remote and treacherous mountains in dense fog, without any sort of security protocols — at a time of heightened threats from Israel and other enemies? What sort of regime then takes 17 hours to find its missing president using chaotic ad hoc search parties? A state that bankrolls its paramilitary activities through selling military drones to Russia had to humiliatingly beg Turkiye for a spare drone with which to locate its lost leader. There were widespread reports of fireworks parties and Iranians celebrating behind closed doors. Among older generations, Raisi is best known for dispatching thousands of political prisoners to their deaths in the 1980s. Among a younger generation, Raisi is associated with the 2022 hijab crackdowns and widespread killings, detentions, torture and rape in the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s brutal death. As one commentator noted, Raisi’s ascent to the presidency “was not a function of any discernible charisma or political skill,” but rather “mindless loyalty to the ruling system” and “a track record of unhesitating brutality.”How Khamenei stage manages the upcoming presidential elections will speak volumes about how the country’s leadership is to be configured. If he desires to impose his own choice and banish all other candidates, that will seriously depress voter turnout, while reminding Iranians that their only prospects for actual change are through vigorously dismantling the entire system. Conversely, Khamenei’s occasional past allowance of candidates from the reformist fringes could at least offer a veneer of legitimacy at a critical moment.
Few Iranians will feel motivated to vote for hard-liner establishment candidates like caretaker president Mohammed Mokhber or previous failed candidate Saeed Jalili. Weaker figures in the positions of supreme leader and president would further empower the Revolutionary Guards, auguring a military dictatorship and more overseas aggression. The succession of “Islamic resistance” warlords paying their respects at Raisi’s funeral served as a reminder of Tehran’s regional mafioso role. They included Hamas’ Ismael Haniyeh, Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem and representatives from the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, while some notorious underlings like Bashar Assad and several Iraqi paramilitary leaders were conspicuously absent.
The Arab world will be closely gauging whether the incoming regime will be more or less confrontational
As well as Iran’s regional proxies upping their attacks on Israeli and Western targets in recent weeks, the ayatollahs have continued to accelerate their nuclear activities toward the threshold of being capable of deploying atomic weapons. Soaring regional tensions and domestic uncertainties may indeed prompt Iran’s theocracy to make the final dash toward nuclear breakout. “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” Kamal Kharazi, an adviser to Khamenei, warned this month.
With Iran such a significant piece in the regional jigsaw, the Arab world will be closely gauging whether the incoming regime will be more or less confrontational. The presence of several senior figures from a number of Arab states at Raisi’s funeral hence sent an important message about how Iran, if it were to put aside overseas warmongering, could enjoy a transformed relationship with its neighbors.
Given that Iran’s incoming leaders are predicted to be weak, unpopular figures, one of the smartest things they could do for the sake of the regime’s survival would be to decisively mend fences with neighboring states and demobilize transnational paramilitaries, while defanging their nuclear program and stepping back from the brink of triggering a futile and ruinously destructive war. Iran is blessed with millennia of cultural heritage, a youthful population and immense resources. The only factor holding it back is its dire leadership. The ayatollahs’ tyranny has never looked more fragile — affording millions of Iranians hope that these accumulating symptoms of regime disintegration herald the beginning of the end of their hated theocratic dictatorship.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Raisi’s death: Iran must choose a safe transition pathway
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/May 27, 2024
The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a tragic accident last week has left the Iranian regime in a state of shock. Raisi’s passing is particularly impactful not just because it leaves a critical leadership position vacant at a crucial time for Iran, both domestically and internationally, but because he had played a key role in balancing Iran’s relations with neighboring Arab countries, as well as with Russia and China.
More importantly, Raisi was seen as vital for ensuring the regime’s stability in the post-Ali Khamenei era. His absence creates a significant void, with no other figure appearing qualified to fill his shoes, leading to ambiguity and multiple possible scenarios for the regime’s future.
This makes the selection of a new president a highly complex and sensitive task. It is not just about filling the presidential seat, but also concerns the overall future of the regime and the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Velayat-e Faqih) system. The stability of Iran’s internal affairs and the balance of its foreign policies are at stake. The crucial question now is: What option will the regime choose to ensure its survival and maintain its stability?
One possibility is that the sudden departure of Raisi will compel the regime to appoint a figure with even more extreme tendencies to the presidential seat. This would align with the regime’s apparent strategy since the 2020 parliamentary elections, which has been to rely on the most dependable hard-liners in all institutions and decision-making positions, sidelining those with wavering loyalties, even if they are part of the regime. This trend was evident with the removal of figures like the Larijani brothers and barring Hassan Rouhani from running in the Assembly of Experts elections.
The trusted names currently being considered are all competing to showcase their hard-line credentials
This scenario is reinforced by the fact that the trusted names currently being considered are all competing to showcase their hard-line credentials. There seems to be no major figure capable of fulfilling the stabilizing role Raisi was expected to play. The selection of his successor may be influenced by the differing interests of various power centers within the regime. This situation could rekindle ambitions for the supreme leader position, potentially boosting the prospects of hard-liners affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.
The ascent to the presidency of a hard-line figure affiliated with the most hard-line movement would have significant repercussions across Iran. Internally, the regime would likely become less tolerant of growing opposition groups and more stringent in using social control measures, intensifying clashes with society and widening the gap between the regime and the masses. This could exacerbate the economic crisis, deteriorate living conditions and lead to spontaneous protests, plunging the regime into an internal legitimacy crisis.
Externally, such a hard-line shift may result in a more confrontational Iranian policy toward neighboring countries, potentially undoing recent diplomatic efforts, such as the restoration of relations with Saudi Arabia, which had opened avenues to mitigate Iran’s problems and crises. This shift could provide opportunities for external forces seeking to destabilize or pressure the regime. The regime’s hard-line stance might also impact the nuclear issue, especially amid growing demands by hard-liners to alter Iran’s nuclear doctrine. This could lead to a direct confrontation with the US and the West, potentially dragging Iran into a costly conflict.
Another possibility is that the Iranian regime might allow reformists and moderates to participate in the June presidential election to make the race more competitive. This move would be aimed at reducing political tension and increasing voter turnout, which has reached its lowest levels in recent elections, particularly in the parliamentary elections last March, where turnout was the lowest since the 1979 revolution.
The most likely scenario is that the regime will impose a candidate who will continue Raisi’s policies
However, this approach would challenge the hard-liners' strategy of monopolizing power — a direction Khamenei likely does not favor. The hard-liners, who have successfully sidelined reformists and moderates from all decision-making positions, will likely work hard to obstruct any efforts to reintroduce these groups into political life, even if their participation is limited to merely running in the elections alongside other competitors. The most likely scenario is that the regime will impose a candidate who will continue Raisi’s policies. During Raisi’s term, Iran made significant gains internationally, despite limited internal effects due to long-standing economic sanctions. Raisi’s strategy of turning eastward and strengthening ties with neighbors, such as the landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia, brought dynamism to Iran’s foreign relations. Although Raisi’s approach was not confrontational with the West, there were efforts to mitigate sanctions, achieving some breakthroughs.
Iran also managed to maintain a balance of deterrence following confrontations with Israel, while avoiding regional war by opening communication channels with the US. Even on the nuclear issue, Iran engaged in indirect negotiations with the US, mediated by Oman. Continuing this approach could help maintain the regime’s external achievements and potentially improve its internal situation.
This middle-of-the-road approach, blending ideology and realism, which Raisi adopted, aligns with the turbulent international and regional situation since Oct. 7, 2023. Continuing this approach would serve Iran’s interests internally, where there is significant tension due to deteriorating economic conditions and suppression of freedoms. Externally, it requires Iran to pursue a balanced policy that limits its isolation on both the regional and international levels. So, the upcoming presidential elections will involve careful calculations to engineer an outcome that ensures a reliable, charismatic and legitimate candidate who can serve Iranian interests. This candidate will continue the general path set by the regime, a path significantly shaped by the late President Raisi. While the Iranian regime can manage the political vacuum left by Raisi's departure, the greater challenge is Khamenei’s succession. Various analyses agree that Raisi was pivotal in ensuring a smooth transfer of power after Khamenei, whether for himself or as a mediator. His absence creates a significant void that will be difficult to fill.
**Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). X: @mohalsulami