Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 23-24/2024
Lebanon: One Person Killed, Three Students Injured in Israeli Drone Strike in Nabatieh
Netanyahu Determined to ‘Restore Peace in North Israel’
Macron, Bin Salman stress need for Lebanon to elect president
French, Israeli FMs discuss 'new ideas' for Lebanon talks
Israeli Airstrike in Nabatiyeh Kills One Hezbollah Member, Injures Students
Students Narrowly Escape Deadly Israeli Strike Targeting Hezbollah Member
Presidential election: the Moderation Bloc Will Present a Series of Proposals to Le Drian
Le Drian in Beirut to Kickstart a New Phase of the Presidential Process
Upcoming Cabinet Session to Address Syrian Migrants Issue
Joumblatt Hails Qatari Support for Lebanon
ISF Extends Security Campaign
Army Chief Delivers a Message of Hope
2026 Parliamentary Elections: Alliances Are Underway in Metn
Sami Gemayel slams Hezbollah's 'war adventure' after children injured
Lebanon's reforms insufficient for recovery, IMF says as it concludes visit to Beirut
World Bank: 44% of Lebanon’s Population Lives in Poverty
Athletico Beirut Pays Tribute to Its Champions
‘Mourir sur scène,’ a Tribute to Dalida at the Casino du Liban
Poverty in Lebanon tripled over a decade, World Bank says
Hezbollah and the Liberation of South Lebanon/Colonel Charbel Barakat – April 30/ 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 23-24/2024
World Court to Rule Friday on Measures over Israel's Rafah Offensive
ICC's warrant requests for Israel, Hamas leaders ignite debate about court's role
Yellen Concerned about Israel's Threats to Cut off Palestinian Banks
Two thousand aid trucks stuck at Rafah border, aid group warns
A US Navy carrier strike group locked in a Red Sea battle has fired over 500 munitions fighting the Houthis
Missile splashes into the Red Sea, causing no damage in latest suspected Yemen Houthi rebel attack
FBI Informant Behind U.S. Drone Strike Says He’s Living a Nightmare
How does this end? With Hamas holding firm and fighting back in Gaza, Israel faces only bad options
Families of Israeli hostages release video of female soldiers being captured by Hamas
German police clear pro-Palestinian protesters from Berlin university
Putin has 'both eyes' on a strategic island belonging to new NATO member Sweden, army commander says
Putin Is Making Nato Nervous By Hinting He Wants To Redraw Russia's Baltic Sea Borders
US to Announce Additional $275ml in Military Aid for Ukraine
Iran prepares to bury Raisi, Abdollahian, and 6 others killed in helicopter crash
Heads of Iran-allied militant groups meet in Tehran

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 23-24/2024
The Butcher Is Dead. What Comes Next for Iran?/Reuel Marc Gerecht/The Free Press/May 23/ 2024 |
Blinken’s careless spin is encouraging terrorists to put more civilians in danger/Lt. Col. Geoffrey Corn (ret.),/The Hill/May 23/2024
Maximum Support Memo/A New Strategic Direction for U.S. Iran Policy/Behnam Ben Taleblu/Saeed Ghasseminejad/Cameron Khansarinia/Andrew Ghalili/FDD/May 23, 2024
Biden’s substitute for victory ...At best, it’s a frozen conflict/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 23/2024
South Africa, Putin's Marxist Cadres, and the International Court of Justice/Nils A. Haug/Gatestone Institute/May 23, 2024
Beyond The Presidential Vacuum!/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/23 May 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 23-24/2024
Lebanon: One Person Killed, Three Students Injured in Israeli Drone Strike in Nabatieh
Asharq Al Awsat/23 May 2024
An Israeli drone hit a vehicle on a road in Nabatieh in South Lebanon, killing one person and injuring three students. The Israeli drone missile hit a vehicle early on Thursday on the Kfar Dajjal road south of Nabatieh, killing one person. The vehicle was up in flames, according to Lebanese media outlets. The missile hit the vehicle at the same time a bus full of students was passing close to the car, which left three students injured. Civil Defense and Red Cross rescue teams transported the injured to the nearest hospital for treatment. No further details were reported. Israeli forces have attacked several Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including border surveillance outposts, caches of missiles and other weaponry and command centers. Hezbollah has regularly fired missiles across the border with Israel over the past seven months, particularly since the Israeli incursion into the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. It has struck deeper inside Israel and introduced new and more advanced weaponry.

Netanyahu Determined to ‘Restore Peace in North Israel’
This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Thursday, asserted his determination to “bring security back to the north of the country,” to “enable inhabitants to return to their homes.”Speaking to the commander and division commanders at the Northern Regional Command, Netanyahu pointed out that they are “constantly operating at the northern front, and hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists have been killed so far.” “We have detailed, important, and even surprising plans, but I do not share them with our enemy,” he added. “[The plans] are meant to bring security back to the north and return the residents safely to their homes,” Netanyahu concluded. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire on Lebanon’s southern border since October 8, when the pro-Iranian group opened this front in support of Hamas in its war in Gaza. Since then, tens of thousands of people have fled their homes in northern Israel, due to artillery exchanges and Hezbollah’s uninterrupted bombardments of the area.

Macron, Bin Salman stress need for Lebanon to elect president
Naharnet/May 23/2024
French President Emmanuel Macron has held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that tackled the Lebanese file. The two leaders emphasized “the need for Lebanon to exit the political crisis and elect a president who would be capable to lead the country on the path of the necessary reforms.” They also stressed their “determination fo continue their efforts in this direction along with their partners.”

French, Israeli FMs discuss 'new ideas' for Lebanon talks
Naharnet/May 23/2024 
The French efforts to find a solution for the Israel-Hezbollah border conflict are still ongoing, diplomatic sources in Paris said. “The Lebanese file was at the heart of the talks that Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz held with his French counterpart Stéphane Séjourné,” the sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Thursday. “New ideas are being discussed to reach a political solution that befits the interests of all sides,” the sources added.

Israeli Airstrike in Nabatiyeh Kills One Hezbollah Member, Injures Students
This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
An Israeli drone strike targeted a car on the Kfardjal-Nabatiyeh road, killing one Hezbollah member on Thursday morning. The raid also caused minor injuries to three children. The van was carrying students from the locality of Qaaqaait al-Jisr . It was next to the targeted car. Hezbollah announced later that one of its members, Mohammad Ali Nasser Farran, was killed in the airtrike. In response to this incident, the group stated that they shelled the new headquarters of the Israeli 91st Division with dozens of Katyusha rockets. According to the Israeli army, Farran, a “physics teacher”, was “responsible for the manufacture of Hezbollah’s sophisticated combat equipment”. The pro-Iranian group also claimed responsibility for strikes against the Metula site, targeting “spy equipment” while the Israeli army shelled the outskirts of Aitaroun and the Hamoul region near Naqoura.

Students Narrowly Escape Deadly Israeli Strike Targeting Hezbollah Member
This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
Lebanese schoolchildren had a narrow escape Thursday when a drone strike killed a Hezbollah fighter in the car ahead, blowing out the windscreen of their minibus and wounding three pupils. The three children were hospitalized with cuts from flying glass after the attack. “At first, we didn’t understand what was happening, and there was panic among the children,” said Ahmad Qubaisi, 57, who was driving the bus with 18 children on board. “Suddenly, a strike hit the car in front of us” near the town of Nabatiyeh, about 13 kilometers from the Israeli border, he said. “The bus’s windshield shattered… I backed up and that’s when the second strike hit the car in front of us,” Qubaisi added. At the site of Thursday’s strike, an AFP photographer saw the charred car and blood stains on the road. One of the children, 11-year-old Mohammad Nasser, was lying on a bed in the Nabatiyeh government hospital, a bandage on his bruised forehead. “The glass shattered… and the car in front of us was burning,” the boy recalled. Fearing more strikes, he said, “We put our schoolbags on our heads.”Standing beside him, his aunt showed AFP his blood-stained school uniform. The boy’s father, Ali Nasser, recounted, “I was working in my field when my brother-in-law called telling me my son had been injured.” “Fortunately, his injuries are not serious,” he added. In the more than seven months since the October 7 attack on southern Israel, at least 429 people have been killed in Lebanon, mostly militants but also 82 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border.Mahmoud Zayyat / AFP

Presidential election: the Moderation Bloc Will Present a Series of Proposals to Le Drian
Bassam Abou Zeidi/This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian’s forthcoming mission, Tuesday in Beirut, won’t be decisive. Rather, its main objective is to launch a new phase in the ongoing efforts to resolve the presidential deadlock. One of the key steps of Le Drian’s 24-hour visit will be his Wednesday meeting at the Pine Residence with the National Moderation Bloc’s MPs, who had launched an initiative based on informal parliamentary consultations in an attempt to break this deadlock. The Quintet’s ambassadors in Beirut (US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar), who are also engaged in a good offices mission with Lebanese party leaders to reconcile viewpoints, are closely coordinating with the Moderation Bloc’s MPs to ensure the success of their initiative. According to sources within this bloc, the MPs are currently elaborating a series of scenarios that they will discuss with Le Drian to assess their viability and determine which one is most likely to succeed before engaging in a new round of political discussions. The Moderation Bloc’s primary initiative revolves around informal parliamentary consultations conducted within the Parliament itself. The objective is to reach a kind of consensus regarding the presidential election. Subsequently, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri would convene an electoral session with successive rounds until a candidate is elected.The Quintet’s ambassadors have adopted this formula, the assumption being that consultations are a crucial step towards breaking the deadlock.
While the various protagonists agree on this principle, they diverge on the format of parliamentary consultations. According to Moderation Bloc’s sources, progress in this regard has yet to occur, especially as Berri remains staunchly opposed to such consultations. The Speaker of the House continues to advocate for a dialogue table with parliamentary and political leaders, a proposal categorically rejected by the opposition and independent MPs. Even the Quintet’s ambassadors prefer informal consultations, as revealed in the statement released after their last meeting, which could lead to either a consensus on a presidential candidate or the convening of an electoral session with successive rounds until a president is elected. During his stay in Beirut, will the personal envoy of French President Emmanuel Macron succeed in persuading Berri to make concessions after meeting with him?

Le Drian in Beirut to Kickstart a New Phase of the Presidential Process
Samar Kadi/This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
French presidential envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian is scheduled to arrive in Beirut on Tuesday to kickstart a new phase of the process aimed at opening the way for the election of a president of the Republic. According to a Western diplomatic source, Le Drian’s visit, the first in more than five months, comes after two obstacles that were standing in the way of moving forward on the presidential issue have been largely settled. “A few months ago, there was no reason for Le Drian to return. But today he’s back as part of the Quintet’s efforts. We’re making progress on the multi-round electoral session, and we know that there will be some sort of prior consultations,” the source told This is Beirut. “We can say that the main issues are being settled in one way or another, as such we will be moving to another stage with the (Le Drian’s) visit,” the source said, adding that the various political forces have given guarantees for ensuring a quorum for the electoral session. The next stage in the process leading to ending the long-protracted vacancy at the top post involves the definition of the profile and political program of the future head of state. The former French foreign minister had asked in the summer of 2023 the various parliamentary blocs to outline the criteria, profile and agenda for the presidential hopeful. “Le Drian is coming here precisely for this new stage in the process of helping the Lebanese achieve the election,” he said.
Commenting on media reports about a potential Doha 2 conference, similar to the one held in 2008 which led to the election of former president Michel Sleiman, the source stressed that the international community “is not in that logic” of “sharing the cake.”
“Our logic is very clear: the first step is the election of a president, the second is a prime minister, and the third is a comprehensive structural reform plan for the economy, public administration, and the whole situation in Lebanon.”
The source underlined that “it will be up to the Lebanese to propose the names of candidates,” whereas, Le Drian and the ambassadors of the five-nation Quintet (France, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt) will be focusing on the aspired president’s profile and agenda for the next few years. Le Drian will be paying a short visit to Lebanon during which he will meet Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and members of the National Moderation Bloc whose initiative for the presidential election is aligned with the Quintet’s efforts.5

Upcoming Cabinet Session to Address Syrian Migrants Issue
This Is Beirut/May23/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati is in the process of calling for a cabinet session devoted to following up on the issue of Syrian migrants, according to an announcement by his office on Thursday. As requested by the Finance Ministry, the session will also tackle amending the money laundering law and extending the deadline for implementing two decrees related to granting a treasury advance to the Social Affairs Ministry and the Public Health Ministry.

Joumblatt Hails Qatari Support for Lebanon
This Is Beirut/May23/2024
Former head of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) Walid Joumblatt, on Thursday, praised the Qatari role – as part of the Quintet (United States, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt) – “in unblocking the presidential elections in Lebanon,” to fill a seat “which had been vacant since October 31, 2022.”Joumblatt, who is on a visit to Doha, was received by the Qatari Prince, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The situation in south Lebanon, the Gaza war and Doha’s mediation to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, were addressed by Joumblatt who was accompanied by his wife Noura, MP Hadi Abou el-Hosn and Lebanese Ambassador to Qatar Farah Berri.

ISF Extends Security Campaign
This Is Beirut/ May 23/2024
Internal Security Forces, on Thursday, asserted that “the security plan will be prolonged for several more days in Greater Beirut and its southern suburb, after it proved its effectiveness, especially with a decrease in crime rate.”In a statement, the ISF Public Relations Division refuted “the news circulated by some media outlets and social media websites about the end of the security campaign in the southern suburb, especially the impounding of violating cars and motorcycles.”“Security forces will subsequently conduct sudden campaigns, in addition to this previously announced plan, in order to pursue perpetrators of crimes and those wanted by the judiciary, and to control common violations,” the statement concluded. It is noteworthy that the security campaign was scheduled to end tomorrow, May 23.

Army Chief Delivers a Message of Hope
This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
On the eve of the 24th anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, on May 25, 2000, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun highlighted the prominence of the Lebanese Army as “the center of the hopes of the Lebanese, the source of their strength, and the motivation for their steadfastness.”General Aoun commended the military personnel for their dedication, strong military doctrine, and commitment to their duties despite difficult circumstances. Their efforts are crucial in maintaining the Army’s capabilities and responsibilities, which are bolstered by support from international allies and Lebanese expatriates. General Aoun also reaffirmed the Army’s commitment to its mission, coordination with UNIFIL under International Resolution 1701, fighting terrorism, and securing the borders.

2026 Parliamentary Elections: Alliances Are Underway in Metn
This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
Gebran Bassil is wasting no time. The Free Patriotic Movement’s leader is pulling out all the stops to secure his political future, on several levels, after receiving a succession of political slaps in the face. The son-in-law of the former president, Michel Aoun, is reportedly not happy with cleaning up the party he was catapulted to lead (thanks to his father-in-law) to get rid of those who don’t always agree with his policies. This operation, aimed primarily at consolidating his hold on the FPM in the run-up to the post-Michel Aoun era, is simultaneously associated with his efforts to neutralize his electoral opponents.
By dismissing Metn MP and Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab, Bassil risks losing a great deal in this constituency, where his party currently has one MP, Ibrahim Kanaan. This is the reason why Gebran Bassil rushed to establish contacts with former Interior Minister Elias Murr, who is back in Lebanon for good after the end of his term as head of the “Interpol Foundation for a Safer World,” to forge an electoral alliance with him and the Armenian party, Tachnag, in the next elections. Bassil is thus trying to kill two birds with one stone while blocking the way to attempts at rapprochement between the Kataeb party and Murr. The Kataeb, founded by Pierre Gemayel and now presided over by his grandson, Samy Gemayel, had forged a discreet legislative alliance with former Prime Minister Michel Murr on several occasions between the 1990s and 2009.
In any case, this change in the political configuration in Metn would have triggered a political dynamic around plans for political-electoral alliances in this constituency, where the main Christian parties are omnipresent. While it’s still too early to talk about alliances, preparations are well underway for the next parliamentary election.

Sami Gemayel slams Hezbollah's 'war adventure' after children injured
Naharnet/May 23/2024 
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel on Thursday criticized Hezbollah anew over its ongoing conflict with Israel, after several schoolchildren were wounded in an Israeli drone strike that killed a Hezbollah fighter in the Nabatieh region. “What is the guilt of children going to school in the morning and that of civilians who are paying the price of Israeli criminality that is being drawn by Hezbollah,” Gemayel said in a post on the X platform, formerly Twitter. “Hezbollah is scoring points in the region to use them at the tables of regional settlements and quotas,” Gemayel added. “Our thoughts are with the students, their parents and all the civilians who are being harmed due to the criminal war adventure,” the Kataeb leader went on to say.

Lebanon's reforms insufficient for recovery, IMF says as it concludes visit to Beirut
Naharnet/May 23/2024  
Lebanon's reforms are insufficient to help lift the country out of its economic crisis, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. Head of the IMF mission visiting Lebanon Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, said in a statement that Lebanon's ongoing refugee crisis, clashes with Israel at its southern border and the spillover from the war in Gaza are exacerbating an already weak economic situation. An IMF team, led by Ramirez Rigo, had arrived Monday in Beirut to discuss recent economic developments and progress on key reforms. At the end of the mission Thursday, Ramirez Rigo said that the unaddressed economic crisis continues to weigh heavily on Lebanon’s population. "Unemployment and poverty have reached exceptionally high levels and the delivery of critical public services has been severely disrupted. At the same time, Lebanon continues to struggle with hosting the largest number of refugees per capita in the world, amidst limited resources." He warned that "the negative spillovers from the conflict in Gaza and increased fighting at Lebanon’s southern border are further exacerbating an already weak economic situation. It has internally displaced a significant number of people and caused damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and trade in southern Lebanon. Together with a decline in tourism, the high risks associated with the conflict create significant uncertainty to the economic outlook."
Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, has traded near daily cross-border fire with Israeli forces since the Palestinian group's October 7 attack on southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza. The fighting has killed at least 427 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including 82 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
Israel says 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on its side of the border. "Some progress has been made on monetary and fiscal reforms since the last Article IV consultation. Policy measures taken by Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Banque du Liban (BdL) – including the phasing out of monetary financing of the budget, the termination of the Sayrafa (electronic foreign exchange) platform, tight fiscal policy, and steps towards the unification of exchange rates – have helped contain exchange rate depreciation, stabilized the money supply, and started to reduce inflationary pressure. In addition, measures by the MoF to improve revenue mobilization from VAT and customs, by adjustment of the customs dollar to the market exchange rate, brought the estimated 2023 fiscal deficit close to zero. The joint efforts of BdL and MoF have also enabled some accumulation of foreign reserves," Ramirez Rigo said.
He added that however, these policy measures fall short of what is needed to enable a recovery from the crisis. "Bank deposits remain frozen, and the banking sector is unable to provide credit to the economy, as the government and parliament have been unable to find a solution to the banking crisis. Addressing the banks’ losses while protecting depositors to the maximum extent possible and limiting recourse to scarce public resources in a credible and financially viable manner is indispensable to lay the foundation for economic recovery. Without progress, the cash and informal economy will continue to grow, raising significant regulatory and supervisory concerns." Ramirez Rigo said that the timely approval of the 2024 budget was an important first step, but stronger efforts are needed to strengthen public finances. "The tax administration remains underfunded, hampering tax collection and putting the formal sector taxpayers at a disadvantage. Lack of resources prevents the provision of essential public services, social programs, and capital spending. It also exacerbates inequities and negatively affects perceptions of tax fairness. Looking ahead, and given the likely lack of any financing, the 2025 budget should continue to aim for a zero deficit through more ambitious fiscal reforms, particularly to further enhance revenue mobilization through strengthening compliance and reprioritizing current spending to meet essential social and infrastructure needs." He added that progress on other critical reforms, including governance, transparency and accountability, remains limited. "The BdL is in the process to start taking steps to enhance internal control and governance. At the same time, further measures to raise transparency across the public sector are much needed, including audited financial statements of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), as well as SOE reforms more broadly. Furthermore, weaknesses in the quality, availability, and timeliness of economic data pose challenges for informed policymaking, he said. Ramirez Rigo vowed that the Fund remains committed to supporting Lebanon, and expects the Article IV discussions to take place in September 2024 to assess progress on critical economic and financial reforms.

World Bank: 44% of Lebanon’s Population Lives in Poverty
This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
Poverty in Lebanon has more than tripled over the past decade, reaching 44% of the total population, according to a new World Bank (WB) report published on Thursday. Based on a recent household survey covering five Lebanese governorates – Akkar, Beirut, Beqaa, North Lebanon and most of Mount Lebanon – the report reveals that one in three Lebanese in these areas was poverty-stricken in 2022. This underscores the crucial need to strengthen social safety nets and create jobs to help reduce poverty and tackle growing inequality. The report, titled “Assessing Poverty and Equity in Lebanon 2024: Overcoming a Prolonged Crisis,” examines the current state of poverty and inequality in the country. It highlights the impact of the economic and financial crisis on households, as well as its effects on labor market dynamics. The report is based on a household survey conducted in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) between December 2022 and May 2023, covering Lebanese, Syrians and other nationals (excluding Palestinians in camps and gatherings). Data collected covered demographics, education, employment, health, expenditure, assets, income and coping strategies. The report reveals a significant increase in poverty in the areas studied – from 12% in 2012 to 44% in 2022 – also highlighting that poverty is unevenly distributed across the country. In northern Lebanon, for example, the poverty rate is 70% in Akkar, where most inhabitants are employed in agriculture and construction. Moreover, not only has the proportion of poor Lebanese tripled to 33% compared to ten years ago, but they have also fallen even deeper into poverty, with the poverty gap rising from 3% in 2012 to 9.4% in 2022. At the same time, income inequality among the Lebanese seems to be increasing. The prolonged economic and financial crisis has forced households to adopt various coping strategies, including reducing food consumption and non-food expenditure, as well as cutting back on healthcare spending, with likely serious long-term consequences. To better reflect these changes in household behavior, the report adopts a new, unofficial poverty line developed for 2022; as the existing 2012 national poverty line no longer reflects the current consumption patterns or conditions faced by households in Lebanon today.
With the rapid expansion of a dollarized monetary economy, dollar-earning Lebanese households see their purchasing power preserved, while those without access to dollars are increasingly exposed to escalating inflation. Remittances from abroad have become a key economic buffer, rising from an average of 13% of GDP between 2012 and 2019 to around 30% in 2022 (partly due to a denominator effect) and increasing by 20% in nominal terms between 2021 and 2022. “The current crisis in Lebanon urgently requires better monitoring of household welfare to develop and adopt appropriate policies,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Country Director for the Middle East Department. “The Poverty and Equity Assessment highlights the crucial need to improve targeting of the poor and to expand the coverage and scope of social assistance programs to ensure that households in need have access to essential resources, including food, healthcare and education.” The report also reveals that Syrian households have been hit hard by the crisis. Nearly nine out of ten Syrians were living below the poverty line in 2022, while 45% of poor Syrian families had food consumption scores below the acceptable level. The majority of working-age Syrians who are employed are in low-paid and precarious informal employment, contributing to impoverishment and food insecurity.

Athletico Beirut Pays Tribute to Its Champions
Roudi Abou Nader/This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
Athletico Beirut club honored its Under-16 and Under-12 teams, who won the Lebanese Football Championship titles for the year 2024, at a ceremony held on the club’s green field in Dbayeh. Atletico’s Chairman of the Board, Robert Paoli, gave a speech in which he looked back two decades to the founding of the Athletico club with René Matta. Over the years, Athletico has built up a reputation as a local force to be reckoned with, thanks to judicious planning to reach the highest levels. Paoli enumerated the successes of the club’s teams on the national and international stages and the glow it enjoys thanks to the combined efforts of the administration, technical staff, parents, and players. He concluded by saying, “The Atletico dream has no limits, and we are proud of you.”
Partnership with Olympique Lyonnais
For his part, Olympique Lyonnais representative Jean-Francois Vulliez said he was delighted to be back in Lebanon, highlighting the partnership between the Lyon and Athletico clubs for over 10 years and praising the modern training methods adopted by the Lebanese club, which has been training champions since its inception 18 years ago. He said he had visited all the club’s branches and was impressed by the will and determination of the club’s family to achieve success and excellence. Asked by This is Beirut about the importance of the partnership between Athletico and OL, Vulliez stressed that “the partnership began in 2011. A training strategy was put in place by both parties with the aim of helping coaches to develop young players. Six to seven talents are recruited each year to play and interact with players from the OL academy to improve their level and prepare them for national selections.” The cooperation between Lebanese and French players brings a significant cultural benefit, as the Lebanese youngsters discover training methods in France, while the French youngsters interact with their Lebanese counterparts. This interaction creates a friendly relationship and promotes openness between the young players,” concluded Jean-François Vulliez.

‘Mourir sur scène,’ a Tribute to Dalida at the Casino du Liban
Fabienne Touma/This Is Beirut/May 23/2024
On June 7 and 8, the Casino du Liban will host Mourir sur scène, an exceptional musical event in tribute to Franco-Egyptian icon Dalida. A tribute show to Dalida directed by Roy El Khouri will be presented on June 7 and 8 on the stage of the Casino du Liban for two unprecedented and spectacular performances. Several singers will be featured, including Mirva Kadi, who will play the role of Dalida, along with Matteo El Khodr, Mabelle Rahme, Bassem Feghali and talented dancers. Roy El Khouri shared his enthusiasm for this show with This Is Beirut. “My decision to create this spectacular tribute stems from a deep admiration for Dalida’s musical legacy. Her music transcends cultural boundaries, and this show is a celebration of her invaluable contribution to the music industry,” he said. Matteo El Khodr, one of the performers, is himself an ardent fan of Dalida’s. For him, this project is a dream come true. Dalida is an emblematic figure of his youth, and his passion for her music and image was passed down from his grandfather. This project will allow him to pay homage to her in a unique way. Mirva Kadi, who will have the honor of embodying this iconic singer, shares this dream come true with Matteo El Khodr. “It’s a dream for me to be able to play the role of Dalida. I had this idea in mind for a while, and several producers told me that I absolutely had to play her due to my resemblance to the singer. And that’s what happened, thanks to Roy El Khouri.”Roy El Khouri also revealed some details about the show. “We recreate the fascinating world of Dalida through dance sequences, performances, musical scenes, acting and staging, to showcase Dalida’s artistic diversity and the different musical genres she influenced, which contributed to the global cultural landscape. The performers will evolve in Dalida’s incomparable universe to pay her a spectacular tribute, in her image.”
Musical and Visual Surprises
Matteo El Khodr shared his approach to interpreting Dalida’s songs with This Is Beirut. “I don’t seek to imitate Dalida but to pay tribute to her in my own way. Each song I sing is infused with my own style while respecting the essence of the original song. The costumes designed by Azzi and Osta will be a nod to Dalida’s iconic aesthetic,” he explained. The show will be a journey through the different eras of Dalida’s career, with musical and visual surprises throughout the evening. “Everything will be performed live, thanks to an orchestra and dancers, to reproduce Dalida’s energy and emotion on stage,” Kadi said. By paying tribute to the great singer, this show promises to rekindle the flame of her universal musical legacy and transport the audience into a world of glamour, passion and timeless music. For Kadi, it is very important to pay tribute to this iconic woman and singer. She has been honoring Dalida for years by incorporating some of her songs into her own concerts. But this project will have a special dimension as she will embody Dalida herself, speaking, singing and dancing in her way. Her body language will be Dalida’s.
Similarities
It is a significant responsibility that Kadi takes very seriously. To properly portray Dalida, the artist diligently studied her character by watching her interviews and live concerts and carefully re-listening to her hits, even choosing the songs for the show herself. “I ask myself a lot of questions about her way of being and her personality. What did she go through? Where does this sadness come from? How does she react to different situations? I look at her eyes, facial expressions, gestures, etc. These are essential and important elements and details in constructing the character.”The artist has noticed certain similarities with Dalida, which helps her better embody the character, such as her way of thinking, reacting and responding. Kadi even has Italian origins, allowing her to reprise some of Dalida’s famous lines in Italian, as well as in French and Arabic, like Dalida. The performances at the Casino du Liban promise to be magical in celebrating Dalida’s essential legacy. The memory of Dalida will shine brightly, illuminating the hearts of spectators with her legendary grace.

Poverty in Lebanon tripled over a decade, World Bank says
Associated Press/May 23/2024
Poverty in Lebanon tripled over the course of a decade during which the small country slid into a protracted financial crisis, the World Bank said Thursday. The percentage of people in Lebanon living below the poverty line rose from 12% in 2012 to 44% in 2022, the bank said in a report based on surveys conducted in five of the country's eight governorates. The data provided the most detailed snapshot to date on the economic circumstances of the country's population since the crisis that began in late 2019, although World Bank officials acknowledged it was incomplete as surveyors were not given access to three governates in the south and east of the country. The findings showed stark differences in poverty levels between different areas of the country and between Lebanese citizens and the country's large population of Syrian refugees. In the Beirut governate, in contrast to the rest of the country, poverty actually declined from 4% to 2% of the population during the decade surveyed, while in the largely neglected Akkar region in the north, the rate increased from 22% to 62%. Among Lebanese surveyed, the poverty rate in 2022 was 33%, while among Syrians it reached 87%. While the survey found an increase in the percentage of Lebanese citizens working in unskilled jobs like agriculture and construction, it found that most Lebanese still work in skilled jobs while the majority of Syrians do unskilled labor. The report also measured "multidimensional poverty," which takes into account access to services like electricity and education as well as income, finding that some 73% of Lebanese and 100% of non-Lebanese residents of the country qualify as poor under this metric. Beginning in late 2019, Lebanon's currency collapsed, while inflation skyrocketed and the country's GDP plummeted. Many Lebanese found that the value of their life savings had evaporated. Initially, many saw an International Monetary Fund bailout as the only path out of the crisis, but since reaching a preliminary agreement with the IMF in 2022, Lebanese officials have made limited progress on reforms required to clinch the deal, including restructuring the ailing banking sector.
An IMF delegation visiting Beirut this week found that "some progress has been made on monetary and fiscal reforms," the international financial institution said in a statement, including on "lowering inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate," but it added that the measures "fall short of what is needed to enable a recovery from the crisis." It noted that reforms to "governance, transparency and accountability" remain "limited" and that without an overhaul of the banking sector, the "cash and informal economy will continue to grow, raising significant regulatory and supervisory concerns." The World Bank has estimated that the cash economy makes up 46% of the country's GDP, as Lebanese distrustful of banks in the wake of the crisis have sought to deal in hard currency. The flourishing cash economy has created fertile ground for money laundering and led to concerns that Lebanon could be placed on the Paris-based watchdog Financial Action Task Force's "grey list" of countries with a high risk of money laundering and terrorism financing.

An Important historical study by Colonel Charbel Barakat confirms with details and facts that Hezbollah did not liberate south Lebanon, and explains the fact that Israel withdrew from it in 2000 for mere internal reasons, in full agreement with the Iranians, and with an American blessing.
Hezbollah and the Liberation of South Lebanon
Colonel Charbel Barakat – April 30/ 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108382/%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d8%ba%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%86%d9%83%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%aa/
It has been 22 years since the withdrawal of Israel from the border region. Then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, a proponent of the view of leaving Lebanon and its problems in 1982, took the decision of a quick withdrawal. This idea was proposed at the time by senior Israeli officers to their command after the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) successfully fulfilled their mission in “Operation Peace in Galilee” in which they uprooted Yasser Arafat and his organization from Lebanon and sent them off first to Yemen, then to Tunisia. Since that time, General Barak has held on to his view of Israel withdrawing from what he called the “Lebanese swamp” and leaving Lebanon to flounder in its own problems.
In 1999, Barak decided to run for the Knesset as a candidate of the Labor Party, which he headed, on the basis of a program that boiled down to withdrawing from Lebanon before June 2000, should he succeed in the elections. His victory in those elections triggered a countdown for the Israeli Army withdrawal, in a fulfillment of the promise made by now Prime Minister-elect Barak. Subsequently, and with an agreement with the Americans to ensure a smooth withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon without major incidents. Meanwhile, the Syrian occupation forces were on keeping the Israelis in Lebanon to ward off any demands by the Lebanese for a Syrian army withdrawal, and so Damascus was maneuvering to convince everyone that Israel will not withdraw, and that Barak was merely sloganeering in an election campaign.
In practice, the Israelis were seeking an agreement with the Iranians in which South Lebanon would be handed over to the pro-Iranian Hezbollah group on condition of controlling the border and interdicting any military operations across that border. Several contacts and meetings were held through Swedish and German emissaries, a demarche that was amply covered by international news outlets, and Der Spiegel was not the only one to do so. The Americans were, as far as is known, aware of all the details of these negotiations, and of course the Syrians as well. Yet, the Lebanese government was not allowed to participate in any of these negotiations or to even express an opinion on what was going on, just as was the case when the “April Understanding” was reached in the aftermath of the 1996 “Operation Grapes of Wrath”, even though the matter concerned Lebanese territories and the fate of Lebanese citizens. As a result, the Lebanese State and its institutions, including the Army, were excluded from any effective participation in the matter, as if the operation was to be carried out in some remote place in the middle of nowhere.
In the border zone, several intelligence operations were conducted to strike the infrastructure of the South Lebanon Army (SLA), in an attempt to present it as weak before Israeli and international public opinions. The movement led by Riyad Abdallah, a follower of the Amal Movement from Khiam village, might have taken the form of a coup, though it was not supported by SLA troops or the ordinary citizens of the border strip. This prompted the Director of the Lebanon Bureau Uri Lubrani and the Deputy Defense Minister General Sneh to pay a visit to Major General Lahad and together contain this rebellion. At the same time, however, assassination attempts were initiated against security officials operating in the area, which climaxed with the killing of the Western District Commander, Colonel Akel Hashem, who also headed the Intelligence Service. The objective was to weaken the morale of the people of the area, and perhaps also to silence those who may disclose the names of people meeting with the Israelis. Some of the targeted individuals were slated to take up important posts in the armed organization at a later time. This was followed by an increased recruitment of informers working for Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army, some of whom had previously worked for the Israelis, in order to protect them and improve their image. The Lebanese Army at the time pretended to be blind to the unfolding events, ever since the Lebanese South was handed over to Hezbollah to be the sole “Resistance”.
The Lebanese citizens of the border strip and members of the SLA were aware of what was being prepared, and everyone knew of the Israeli government’s intention to withdraw. However, the discussions were about an agreement in which the United Nations forces would assume responsibility for security in the area, and SLA members would be incorporated into the Lebanese government troops who be entering the area under UN command. That agreement also stipulated the resolution of all pending issues, including a clean slate to erase the residues of the conflict between Hezbollah and the SLA and reconcile the Lebanese residents separated by the conflict, leading to stability under the umbrella of the UN and the Lebanese State. All of this was included in a memorandum drafted by representatives of the civilian committees of the border strip and submitted to the French and British ambassadors and to an attaché at the US Embassy in Tel Aviv. The UN representative, Mr. Larsen, did not have the courage to receive a copy of the memorandum when he visited the area, although a copy was delivered to the UN Command in Naqoura, while a second copy was directly forwarded to the relevant UN authorities in New York.
But the Iranians were not interested in such a solution because it would deprive them of control on the ground and of their claims of victory. The Iranians pledged to the Israelis that not a single shot would be fired across the border if Hezbollah were to control security in the area. But if the Lebanese Army were to enter the area, followed by the Lebanese State’s official institutions, the Iranians could not assume any responsibility for the transgressions that might ensue. The US ambassador to Lebanon, David Satterfield, agreed to the plan as it offered the fastest solution to reducing tensions and stop the attacks.
As for the Lebanese side, the Taef Agreement had granted Syria complete control on the ground. President Assad had secured his grip on security in Lebanon, and therefore on the Lebanese government as well. He believed that keeping Hezbollah in south Lebanon served his interests, because Hezbollah was an integral part of his Iranian ally’s forces and gave Iran space to persevere despite its defeat in its war with Iraq. Iraq’s victory gave President Saddam Hussein a surplus of force that drove him to invade Kuwait and face an international coalition to liberate it, a coalition that included Syria. Details were being worked out on an agreement over border issues between Israel and Lebanon, using the officially recognized Lebanese and Israeli maps of the 1948 Truce Agreement to delineate the Blue Line under the auspices of the UN forces. The Lebanese State consented to the full implementation of UNSCR 425 as soon as Israel withdraws from Lebanese territory, on the basis of the Blue Line as the border between the two countries.
In the Border Strip, Major General Lahad had instructed his staff that the agreement included ceasing hostilities, coordinating the entry of the UN forces following the Israeli withdrawal, overseeing the heavy weapons, and integrating SLA members who wished to continue to serve into the State security institutions. In exchange, Hezbollah was to surrender its weapons to the Lebanese government, as had previously happened with the other militias after the Taef Agreement.
But the Iranian expansionist plan for the Middle East was still in its early phases, especially after the downsizing of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. As a result, these Iranian plans increasingly relied on creating local Shiite armed organizations that were brainwashed to blindly follow the directives of the Iranian theocracy and implement its expansionist projects. To appear as a victor that vanquished Israel was a very critical narrative in Iran’s future outlook for the region, something that Ehud Barak did not understand. He committed himself to a specific timetable for withdrawing from South Lebanon, which made him lose the prime minister ship less than a year later, and ushering Israel into many years of a cycle of violence inspired by the” success” of the radical “terrorist” movement in Lebanon, and a failure of all understandings to bring stability.
Hence, the Iranian attempts to score mediatic points victories on the ground, with Hassan Nasrallah volunteering to issue brazen and depraved threats to enter into the bedrooms of the southern Lebanese residents and kill them in their sleep. Afterwards, no sooner had the Israelis withdrawn from the Bayyada site overlooking the sea, Hezbollah tried to seize the SLA position at Hamra Bridge, but it was ambushed by the SLA and lost more than 15 of its members whose bodies were left by the roadside near the Hamra crossing until the full Israeli withdrawal, not to mention the wounded, and despite the participation of the Lebanese Army artillery in the attack. Following that debacle, Hezbollah did not dare to use its own forces, and instead pushed waves of civilians into entering the area through the Shoumariyeh – Deir Seryan crossing point.
Meanwhile, the Israelis had convinced Major General Lahad to visit his family in France before the scheduled withdrawal, so that he could be present and supervise the implementation of the agreed-upon provisions pertaining to the SLA. But Ehud Barak, seemingly fearing an unravelling of the agreement with the Iranians, took the decision to withdraw precipitously one month before schedule, in the absence of the SLA Commander, and without a clear plan or instructions for the rank and file. The people of the southern border strip were left confounded, with nor orders to fight or coordinate the withdrawal. In the absence of the Israelis and General Lahad, it seemed that there was an agreement to hand over the area to Hezbollah. Having no interest in fighting the Lebanese State or the UN, some of them preferred to enter Israel to avoid a gratuitous bloodshed, as the Israeli “ally” had left and the Lebanese government or the UN forces were not allowed to negotiate with the Israelis. There seemed to be a will to transform the war in the south into a war between the Lebanese owners of the land on one hand, and the Iranian Hezbollah on the other, under the watch of the Lebanese government and the UN. The people of the south could not comprehend these events, for they had defended their homes and coordinated this defense with the Israelis, pending a return of the Lebanese government to assume its responsibilities. Their objective was to prevent a cross-border war and not engage in a war against their own people, even though their Lebanese opponents were under orders of a foreign country.
The SLA was capable of resisting and controlling the area, and compelling others to coordinate and negotiate with it over future arrangements. But the absence of General Lahad – some say he was sent away or excluded himself on purpose in order to implement the agreement signed in Sweden between the Iranians and the Israelis, which stipulated that Hezbollah will supplant the SLA in protecting the border and preventing any attacks across it – and Barak’s hurried withdrawal, with the blessing of Satterfield, had undermined any attempt at a successful normal process that would have rehabilitated the Truce Accords, the deployment of the Lebanese Army with the assistance of the SLA and the UN along the entire border, the surrender by Hezbollah of its weapons to the government, and the integration of willing Hezbollah and SLA fighters into the Lebanese Army.
But the insistence on such a hasty withdrawal will remain a shameful scar on Barak’s character and career inside Israel. Many believe that his political leadership has betrayed the people of the border strip and walked away from the sacrifices made for the sake of peace across the border. As a result, it was the principal driver for all the terrorist attacks that were to later occur inside Israel, which were a direct result of the apparent victory of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Today, 22 years after the Israeli withdrawal, we can understand that Barak’s haste in making the decision, his disrespect and lack of protection of his southern ally and eliminating the SLA’s role as an element of balance in the Lebanese equation, was a “misstep” that contributed greatly to boost Hezbollah and assist the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in presenting themselves as victorious. It also led to the 2006 War that cost both Lebanon and Israel much pain. Thus, and even if it sowed the seeds for dismantling the Lebanese State (Israel’s enemies actually say that dismantling the Lebanese entity was one of Israel’s undeclared goals), it lessened the halo that surrounded it, all the while leading without war to undermining the organized armies of neighboring Arab countries that have no peace treaty with Israel. Indeed, it favored the ongoing rapprochement between Israel and the Gulf Arabs who fear Iranian domination, and whose mixed sectarian demographics were exploited by the Iranians to sow terror in their prosperous societies and jeopardize their stability as a prelude to controlling their resources and capabilities, using organizations like Hezbollah to carry out their dirty deeds.
As for the internal Lebanese situation, the Syrian occupation had tamed the forces opposed to it after the defeat of General Aoun and the entry of the Syrians into the Defense Ministry and the Presidential Palace in Baabda. The Syrian regime had imposed the Taef Agreement that legitimized its occupation of the entire country, followed by the defeat of the Lebanese Forces, their dissolution and the imprisonment of their leader Samir Geagea, the takeover of the Kataeb Party and the exclusion of President Gemayel from the political scene, the killing of Danny Chamoun and his family in a murder operation reminiscent of the assassination of Tony Frangiyeh and his family, leaving Syria’s fingerprints in all of this, even in the assassination of Prime Minister Rachid Karameh. The Syrians now controlled the “pacified” country, with their tight grip on both its political and economic life.
Everyone was led to concede that Hezbollah, backed by Syria and its Iranian ally, had liberated the Lebanese south and saved Lebanon from the Israeli “enemy”. None of the active political actors at the time realized that inflating the role of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will eventually turn against Lebanon and prevent it from recovering its sovereignty and will wipe out the hopes of the Lebanese for an end to wars and for a closure of the open wound in the South that had brought much destruction to them and their children.
Everyone applauded the withdrawal of the Israelis from all Lebanese territory, but no one inquired about those brave SLA soldiers who had protected the South with their bodies and prevented the establishment of Israeli colonies in it, as had happened in the Golan, the Sinai, the West Bank and Gaza. It was them who protected people’s rights and properties, as well as the diversity of their communities, and even their political affiliations. The Druze citizen of Hasbaya, even as a member of the Socialist Party, was proud of his friendship with the Head of the Civilian Administration and may have had a child of his serving as a soldier or officer in the SLA. Similarly, the Shiite citizen who was affiliated with the Amal Movement, the Sunni Bedouin in the West or hailing from the Arqoub region, were also proud of their good relations with the SLA and even with the Israeli officers. The Christians were no different, they who defended the region since the occupation by the Palestinian Fatah and others, and who later prevented the Jezzine residents from being forcibly evicted and displaced like the fate suffered by the people of East Sidon and the Iqleem. They improved relations with the Mount-Lebanon Druze, allowing movement between Hasbaya and the Shouf, Bint Jbayl and Tibneen, Marjeyoun, and Nabatiyeh. They had linked their region by sea with East Beirut before it fell to the Syrians, cooperating with the Lebanese Forces in its defense. However, after the fall of East Beirut to the Syrians as a result of the fratricidal war between its leaders, one of whom was exiled and the other jailed, all hope for salvation had evaporated, and there was no reason to connect with a Lebanon under the Syrian yoke. When Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak decided to withdraw unilaterally, there was no one in Lebanon who cared for the citizens of the South who had kept the Lebanese flag flying high until the Israeli withdrawal, only to be replaced by the Iranian flag and the yellow flag that have nothing to do with Lebanon and are rather symbols of Iran’s domination over Lebanon.
These days, when we hear some politicians proclaiming their conviction that Hezbollah had liberated the South, while fully aware that Hezbollah did nothing but prevent the withdrawal of Israel for 15 years in order to complete its takeover of the Shiite community and isolate it into backwardness and the fear of cooperating with others. It then proceeded to complete its effective takeover of the country with its Syrian and Iranian masters’ help, and transform it into a failed state whose population can be easily sent into forced migration, as it did in Syria; it impoverished the country and destroyed the State institutions, beginning with the electricity sector; it forbade its followers from paying their bills to the ministries since 1982, and has filled them with its own men who do not even go to work; to the universities whose value has been tainted, the banks whose trust and confidence it undermined, and even the social and medical security network and other institutions that managed people’s lives and contributed to the advancement of the country. They then attacked all the friends of the country and sowed division and conflict with them, they empowered the corrupt, the drug smugglers, and the theft gangs to erode all that the State’s infrastructure and projects, thus shattering the hopes of the Lebanese people of keeping up with the world.
Those politicians who say that Hezbollah liberated the south from the Israelis are either fooling the Lebanese or themselves, in order to adapt and be part of this new system of subordination to the Persian theocracy that can only drag the country into backwardness, oppression, and isolation. By instilling fear between the various constituents of the nation, it makes them cease cooperating with each other, which puts Hezbollah as the arbiter of potential conflicts. These same politicians will marvel after the elections that they imposed a “defense strategy” in which Hezbollah, rather that dissolving itself and surrendering its weapons to the government, will control the Lebanese Army and the legitimate security forces. Lebanon will suffer the same fate as Iraq which is controlled by the Popular Mobilization Movement (Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi) and is preventing the rise of the Iraqi State.
This domination by Hezbollah was made possible by the Israeli handover of the Lebanese South to it until it entered the political arena by means of the quadripartite alliance and then by its invention of the non-sensical “Blocking Third”. The latter gimmick was used ad libitum to undermine the government until the pro-Iranian militia was able to impose the new electoral law by which it managed to take control of Parliament and subdue all three top offices in the land. Here is Hezbollah today having decided to run for the elections which are expected to increase the number of MPs under Hezbollah’s control to over 70, a number that Qassem Sulaymani bragged about reaching the previous time.
Was it in Ehud Barak’s design to crush the surrounding countries, including Lebanon, via Hezbollah and its weapons and hostile ideology to all the nations of the Arab region under the control of the descendants of Qurush and Khosrow Anushirvan? Or is it pragmatism used by military people who cannot see beyond the immediate operation assigned to them in their mission, even if at the cost of other losses whose legacies could be much graver.
The project of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards entails the destruction of all that surrounds it in order to build its new empire governed by the Jurisprudent Ruler. Iran has so far destroyed Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, after failing to destroy Bahrain. It is directly attacking Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, and prodding Palestinian extremism on a daily basis to undermine Israeli production centers with the objective of demolishing them, as it did in Lebanon and elsewhere in the region. Will the Abraham Accords between Arabs and Israel prevent the metastasis of this cancer and put an end to it? Or will these accords be more than successful than those accords stained with the blood of the southern Lebanese and the Israelis, and lead to a new era of peaceful relations between the two countries. Those relations were ended by the conduct of the “practical” and short-sighted Prime Minister General, much as the conduct of an “indecisive” President Amin Gemayel who obliterated the aftermath of Israel’s entry into Lebanon in 1982, namely putting an end to the legend of Arafat and his organization, and all of Syria’s military capabilities in Lebanon?
In conclusion, and 22 years after the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, we ask: Isn’t it to remove the “liberator” label off Hezbollah and show its true nature as the “occupier” on behalf of its Iranian masters? Or is hatred still controlling the Lebanese that they become blind to the hurtful truth and no longer know where their interests lie?
N.B: The above study was translated from Arabic to English By Mr. Joseph Hitti.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 23-24/2024
World Court to Rule Friday on Measures over Israel's Rafah Offensive
Asharq Al Awsat/23 May 2024
The International Court of Justice will rule on Friday May 24 on South Africa's request to order a halt to Israel's Rafah offensive in Gaza, it said on Thursday. In hearings last week South Africa had asked the ICJ, also known as the World Court, to order a halt to Israel's offensive in Gaza, and in Rafah in particular, to ensure the survival of the Palestinian people. The demand for such an emergency measure is part of a larger case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide. Israel has denounced South Africa's claim that it is violating the 1948 Genocide Convention, saying it makes a mockery of the crime of genocide. The court has previously rejected Israel's demand to throw out the case and has ordered it to prevent acts of genocide against the Palestinians. Israeli forces killed 35 Palestinians in aerial and ground bombardments across the Gaza Strip on Thursday and battled in close combat with Hamas-led militants in areas of Rafah, health officials and Hamas media said. Israeli tanks advanced in Rafah's southeast, edged towards the city's western district of Yibna and continued to operate in three eastern suburbs, residents said.

ICC's warrant requests for Israel, Hamas leaders ignite debate about court's role
Associated Press/23 May 2024
The stunning announcement that the International Criminal Court is considering issuing an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes and crimes against humanity has ignited a fierce debate about the court's future as an independent arbiter. The request by Prosecutor Karim Khan against the leader of a close U.S. ally also comes as the United Nations' highest court, the International Court of Justice, is investigating whether Israel has committed genocide during its seven-month war against Hamas in Gaza. Although human rights activists generally welcomed Khan's move on Monday, which also included requests to arrest Israel's defense minister and three Hamas leaders, Netanyahu told ABC News that Khan's decision turned the ICC into a "pariah institution." In Washington, where Senate Republicans have threatened sanctions against ICC staff, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Hague-based court doesn't have jurisdiction and that it was "extremely wrongheaded" for the prosecutor to equate the Israeli officials with the Hamas leaders he's seeking to indict. Blinken said Tuesday that the Biden administration would work with Congress to come up with an appropriate response. Khan has warned that attempts to interfere with the ICC's work would be an offense under its founding treaty, the Rome Statute. However, the warning may not carry much weight, as world powers including the U.S., Israel, China and Russia, aren't members of the court and don't recognize its jurisdiction. European countries generally support the court, with France and Belgium underscoring their backing after Monday's announcement. "France supports the International Criminal Court, its independence, and the fight against impunity in all situations," the country's foreign ministry said in a statement late Monday, around the same time Belgium's foreign minister expressed support for the tribunal. Some Palestinians were critical of a perceived lack of reach in Khan's requests. In an opinion piece on the Global Issues website, analyst Mouin Rabbani wrote that Khan had ignored any and all "issues unconnected with the current situation in the Gaza Strip." Nour Odeh, a Palestinian political analyst in Ramallah, said she wasn't surprised that Khan also sought charges against Hamas leaders, but noted in a text that he "had more charges against Hamas leaders than Israel which is a politicized choice that I find very cynical on his part."The ICC prosecutor's office has been investigating alleged crimes in the Palestinian territories dating back to 2014 and could seek more arrest warrants in the future.
Nevertheless, Khan's announcement Monday marked the first time in its more than two-decade existence that the global court's prosecutor has sought to charge the leader of an important U.S. ally. Israeli leaders fiercely deny they have committed crimes, saying they are defending their nation and abiding by international law. Because Israel doesn't recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, even if judges were to issue warrants, there is no immediate prospect of Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant being arrested anytime soon. A decision on whether to issue warrants is expected to take several weeks. The legal bar for approving warrants is relatively low. Judges need to find "reasonable grounds to believe" that crimes outlined in Khan's request were committed. In the past, judges have generally approved such requests. "This is a watershed event in the history of international justice," human rights lawyer Reed Brody, who has gone after leaders including Augusto Pinochet of Chile and former Chad strongman Hissène Habré, wrote in an email. "The ICC has never, in over 21 years of existence, indicted a western official. Indeed, no international tribunal since Nuremberg has done so."
And it might have an impact. "The Court as an institution is overwhelmingly supported by Western governments. But that might not always be true in the future," Tom Ginsburg, a professor of international law at the University of Chicago Law School, told The Associated Press in an email. "By charging the head of a Western-supported government along with a terrorist leader, the Court is making an appeal to even-handedness." Also unusual — and indicative of the profound sensitivity of the request to charge Israeli and Hamas leaders — was Khan's decision to consult a panel of top legal experts, including lawyer Amal Clooney, before seeking warrants. "Clearly the prosecutor wanted some cover from prominent international lawyers for a highly charged decision," said Ginsburg. "By including Amal Clooney, he will ensure a lot of attention; by including Theodore Meron, a former legal advisor to the Foreign Ministry in Israel and prominent former judge of international criminal tribunals, he seeks to insulate himself from the charge of bias," he added.
The latest Gaza war between began on Oct. 7, when Hamas-led militants crossed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 250 hostage. Khan is seeking warrants for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh on charges including the crimes against humanity of extermination, murder and sexual violence. Among the charges Khan wants instated against Netanyahu and Gallant is the war crime of "starvation as a weapon of warfare." That's a first, too, in international courts. "This is a watershed moment in addressing this egregious crime, which has long been viewed solely as a collateral or incidental effect of armed conflict, rather than a deliberate and calculated strategy," said Catriona Murdoch, of rights group Global Rights Compliance. For Palestinians who have long sought action from the ICC, Khan's announcement was a breakthrough, even if they may not think he went far enough. "Listening to Karim Khan talking about these crimes, these accusations, war crimes and crimes against humanity, knowing that this taboo has finally been broken, on an emotional level ... it is historic. It's monumental," said Odeh.

Yellen Concerned about Israel's Threats to Cut off Palestinian Banks
Asharq Al Awsat/23 May 2024
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday she was concerned by a threat from Israel to cut off Palestinian banks from their Israeli correspondent banks, a move that would close a critical lifeline for the Palestinian economy. Yellen told a news conference ahead of a G7 finance ministers meeting beginning on Friday that the US and its partners "need to do everything possible to increase humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza, to curtail violence in the West Bank, and to stabilize the West Bank's economy." She said she would bring up the issue at the meeting of the Group of Seven industrial democracies in the lakeside resort town of Stresa in northern Italy. "I expect other countries to express concern about the impact of such a decision on the West Bank economy. I think this would have a very adverse effect also on Israel."Israel's Finance Minister Belazel Smotrich has said he cannot renew a waiver that expires on July 1 which allows Israeli banks to process shekel payments for services and salaries tied to the Palestinian Authority, Reuters reported. In a post on the X social media site reacting to Yellen's comments, Smotrich said he could not sign the waiver because Palestinians are still funding "terrorism" and Israeli banks can be sued for violating anti-terrorism financing laws. "The financial system of the Palestinian Authority is infected with terrorism up to its neck," said Smotrich, a member of a far-right Israeli coalition partner that supports settlements in the West Bank. He called critics of the policy "hypocrites." Yellen said it was important to keep open the Israeli-Palestinian correspondent banking relationships to allow battered economies in the West Bank and Gaza to function and help ensure security. "These banking channels are critical for processing transactions that enable almost $8 billion a year in imports from Israel, including electricity, water, fuel, and food, as well as facilitating almost $2 billion a year in exports on which Palestinian livelihoods depend," Yellen said. She added that Israel's withholding of revenues collected on behalf of the Palestinian authority also threatens the West Bank's economic stability. "My team and I have also engaged directly with the Israeli government to urge action that would bolster the Palestinian economy and, I believe, Israel's own security," Yellen said. Financial tensions between Israel and the US have risen over US sanctions imposed on Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Two thousand aid trucks stuck at Rafah border, aid group warns
Dan Johnson - BBC News/May 23, 2024
Displaced Palestinians queue for water in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza (22 May 2024)
Many of the displaced Palestinians who have fled Rafah are now in Deir al-Balah, where there is a lack of basic services [Anadolu]
Humanitarian assistance in Gaza has been “systematically paralysed” by restrictions imposed by the warring parties there, warns the Norwegian Refugee Council. The organisation said 2,000 aid trucks were stuck on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing, which has been closed since Israel’s military launched an operation against Hamas in the southern city of Rafah on 6 May. Suze van Meegen, NRC’s head of operations for Gaza, said Palestinians were being “actively deprived” of much-needed shipments of medicine, tents, water tanks, sanitary products and other basics. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says it has opened new crossings, paved roads and fixed water pipes to ease the suffering of Palestinians, and claims one million displaced people have evacuated from Rafah, ahead of the fighting. Israeli hostage's family hope kidnap video reminds world of need for deal
UN halts Rafah food distribution due to shortages and hostilities
Three-quarters of Gaza marked as IDF evacuation zones, BBC finds
Ms van Meegen said: “The city of Rafah is now comprised of three entirely different worlds: the east is an archetypal war zone, the middle is a ghost town, and the west is a congested mass of people living in deplorable conditions.”She also claimed that some Palestinians had been displaced up to nine times since the conflict began in October. “People have no choice but to put their faith in so-called ‘humanitarian safe zones’ designated by the forces that have killed their family members and destroyed their homes.”Satellite images show how areas previously covered with tents and makeshift shelters have been cleared since Israel’s military operation in Rafah started. There is also growing evidence of destruction of buildings and infrastructure in the city. IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said forces were operating in a “targeted and precise” way to eradicate remaining Hamas battalions. “Hamas terrorists are waging war while embedding themselves inside and under civilian areas in Rafah - because Hamas wants Gazan civilians to be caught in the crossfire. We don’t.” Amos Harel, a defence journalist with the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said forces were making significant progress in taking control of the city and the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip of land that runs along the border with Egypt. “By now they’ve covered more than half of the Philadelphi Corridor and they didn’t see any serious Hamas opposition in that area,” he said. Harel also believes Israel has been given a green light by the US to continue its military advance further into Rafah, despite President Joe Biden having previously warned against going into “population centres”. “It’s quite clear that the Americans are no longer trying to prevent Israel from occupying Rafah. So the Israelis may proceed carefully and not too quickly. But it’s less of a question of whether the Israelis are going to occupy Rafah. It’s quite clear that they are.”The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is expected to rule on Friday whether the IDF’s operations in Rafah should be halted. South Africa submitted the request to the UN’s top court this month, as part of a case it filed in December that accused Israel of genocide against the Palestinians. Israel has accused South Africa of presenting biased and false claims.
An Israeli government spokesman said: "No power on Earth will stop Israel from protecting its citizens and going after Hamas in Gaza.”There’s also been intense fighting in the north of Gaza, especially around Jabalia, where 27 patients and staff are refusing to leave the al-Awda hospital despite Israeli soldiers ordering them to evacuate. Most of the occupants have been moved following four days of military action around the hospital, but the deputy director, Mohammed Salha, told the BBC: “I had a clear discussion with the Israeli officer and I said to him I will not evacuate the hospital. If you can’t provide ambulances, sorry, I will not evacuate.” The BBC understands that 14 staff members remain, along with 11 patients and two parents of children who are patients. Mr Salha added: “If we evacuate, these patients will be lost, they will not get the health services they need.” He said there was only rainwater to drink and they were considering cutting meals to one per day to save food. He also said the hospital’s source of power was running short.“We are using a small generator a couple of hours a day to charge the batteries in the hospital.”“We do not have any more clean water. The Israeli forces destroyed our filter system two months ago. We are completely dependent on companies and organisations delivering fresh water, but because of the siege they are not getting through.” Palestinian medics and patients evacuate the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza, following a strike on 21 May 2024
Eid Sabeh, the nursing director at the nearby Kamal Adwan hospital, said his was the only medical facility open to patients in the north Gaza governorate. But he warned: “The health situation at the hospital is catastrophic, especially with the imminent depletion of medical supplies and the fuel needed to operate the generators.”Mahmoud al-Sharif, who lives in Jabalia’s refugee camp, said the IDF was targeting civilian homes and had besieged the al-Awda hospital. “The situation on the ground is dire, with the army besieging several areas in Jabalia and its camp, and we hear nothing but gunfire,” he added.
The IDF wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that its forces were attempting to “eliminate terrorists, and locate and destroy underground infrastructure”.

A US Navy carrier strike group locked in a Red Sea battle has fired over 500 munitions fighting the Houthis
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/May 23, 2024
The US Navy's Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group has spent months battling the Houthis. In their fight, the American naval forces have expended more than 500 munitions.These include air-launched weapons and missiles fired from warships, according to Navy officials. The US Navy carrier strike group battling the Houthis in the Red Sea has fired more than 500 munitions throughout its deployment, striking the rebels directly in Yemen and intercepting their missiles and drones. The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group — which consists of the aircraft carrier Ike and several other warships — has spent months defending the key shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden from unrelenting Houthi attacks. In their attacks, the rebels, backed by Iran, have employed a dangerous mix of anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, one-way attack drones, and uncrewed surface vessels. As part of the ongoing effort to counter these attacks, the US strike group has so far gone after nearly 430 pre-planned and dynamic Houthi targets in dozens of self-defense actions, according to new information Navy officials provided to Business Insider. These targets include static Houthi facilities and sites located across Yemen, missiles and drones the rebels were preparing to launch at ships at sea, and weapons that they already fired into shipping lanes. The strike group has leaned on its aircraft and warships to engage targets and defend against varying threats. The Eisenhower's air wing, which includes aircraft like F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters and EA-18 Growler jets, has been involved in the release of more than 350 air-to-surface weapons and over 50 air-to-air missiles, according to the officials. Aircraft from the strike group have flown more than 27,200 hours across over 12,100 sorties. Navy guided-missile cruisers and destroyers, meanwhile, have launched more than 100 Standard and Tomahawk missiles (surface-to-air and land-attack missiles, respectively), the officials said. But these munitions aren't cheap; a single Standard Missile-2 interceptor, for instance, is estimated to cost around $2 million. With engagements happening on a consistent basis since the fall, the expenditure of so many missiles has added up over time. Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro disclosed in April that the Navy had already fired nearly $1 billion's worth of missiles to counter the Houthis over the previous six months, underscoring the depth and growing financial cost of the US naval activity in the region.
Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau
The Navy's Red Sea operations have often raised questions about financial sustainability and the replenishment of all the spent munitions, especially as malign Houthi activity shows no signs of letting up anytime soon, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told US lawmakers earlier this month. On Wednesday, US forces destroyed four Houthi drones in Yemen that the military had determined presented an "imminent threat" to American and coalition forces, as well as merchant vessels, in the region. US forces are not alone in these turbulent Middle Eastern waters. Several other countries have deployed warships to the region as part of the European Union's Operation Aspides security mission, which began in February. During the first three months of the operation, European forces destroyed at least four Houthi ballistic missiles and 13 drones, the security mission announced on Sunday. It is unclear how many munitions the participating warships and their supporting aircraft fired. The significant Western naval presence has successfully defended ships from the majority of the many Houthi attacks, but the Pentagon and its allies continue to face pressure as the rebels retain the capacity to land hits on merchant vessels, as they did just last weekend. "It is true that [the Houthi attacks] continue," a senior US defense official told reporters earlier this week. "It is also true that we feel, through our coalition strikes, we degraded their capability. We've also interdicted weapons that have been shipped to them for resupply.""But this is not a resolved issue yet," the official acknowledged. "It's also an issue that really is a global concern."

Missile splashes into the Red Sea, causing no damage in latest suspected Yemen Houthi rebel attack
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/May 23, 2024 
A missile splashed down in the waters of the Red Sea on Thursday, but caused no damage to a passing commercial vessel in an attack likely carried out by Yemen's Houthi rebels, officials said. The Houthis did not immediately claim the attack, though it can take hours or even days for them to acknowledge their assaults. The attack happened in the southern Red Sea near the crucial Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. The private security firm Ambrey similarly reported the attack. The Houthis have launched attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in recent months, demanding that Israel ends the war in Gaza, which has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians there. The war began after Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostage. The Houthis have launched more than 50 attacks on shipping, seized one vessel and sunk another since November, according to the United States Maritime Administration. Shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has declined because of the threat. In recent weeks, the tempo of Houthi attacks has dropped, though the rebels have claimed shooting down U.S. surveillance drones.

FBI Informant Behind U.S. Drone Strike Says He’s Living a Nightmare
Justin Rohrlich/The Daily Beast./May 23, 2024
An FBI informant who leaked sensitive government secrets that reportedly then led to a deadly U.S. drone strike claims Iran’s fearsome security apparatus has targeted him for assassination over the perceived betrayal, forcing him underground, in an undisclosed location, following a botched kidnapping attempt.
In a heavily anonymized federal lawsuit obtained by The Daily Beast, “John Doe” says Iranian agents torched his car, broke into his home, and threatened his relatives after learning he was working with the American government. He now lives “in constant fear” of being killed by Iranian agents who have carried out dozens of hits and hundreds of abductions in various countries “with impunity,” according to his complaint.Because Doe is a marked man, he went into exile in a nearby nation where he “must now avoid any public interaction, in order to remain safe,” the complaint states. “This has required him to shut down four businesses that he owned, all of which require public interaction,” it says. “The value of these businesses exceeded $5 million.” All told, Doe contends, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which in recent years has declared war on, among others, a podcaster in Vancouver who discussed sex on the air and a journalist in Brooklyn who criticized the regime, has “intentionally inflicted emotional distress, induced severe mental anguish and emotional and psychological pain and suffering, and caused the need for medical treatment.” Doe’s attorney, former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), served papers on the Iranian regime through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Imam Khomeini Street, sending them via DHL, according to a tranche of companion court filings. On Tuesday, Grayson, who filed the lawsuit on May 7, told The Daily Beast that the case was “extremely sensitive,” and “tragic on many levels.” He was unable to offer complete details of his client’s situation due to the obvious security issues, but said, “There have been many disturbing resorts of Iranian activity, particularly in Europe, that involves everything up to, and including, murder… This is a real problem.”
Doe himself was unable to be reached.
Accused Iranian Agent Sues Tehran for Ruining His Life
The terrifying situation in which Doe presently finds himself stems from a series of interactions he had with the FBI, according to the complaint. At those meetings, which took place on an unspecified date at an FBI office in Washington, D.C., and during “numerous visits to a U.S. facility at an overseas location,” the complaint says Doe provided “very detailed and specific information… regarding the efforts of the Government of Iran to evade U.S. and international sanctions, including the details of large, specific financial transfers for that purpose.”Doe hired two unnamed family members in Iran to assist him in gathering the info, according to the complaint. It says Doe also shared intel with FBI agents in “numerous texts and instant messages to a United States telephone number.”“The information that John Doe… conveyed to the FBI appears to have resulted in, among other things, a drone attack by the United States Government that killed a terrorist,” the complaint states. What Doe didn’t know, however, was that Iranian government operatives were tailing him, and had apparently filmed him entering the overseas “U.S. facility,” according to the complaint. And that’s when things went bad. After he was identified, Doe’s automobile was set ablaze by Iranian agents, the complaint alleges. Next, it says, “[s]everal persons, resembling Iranians, went to [Doe’s] home, apparently with the intention of killing, torturing or kidnapping him. On information and belief, these persons were agents of the Government of Iran. These persons entered his home. John Doe… escaped from them, however.”At this point, according to the complaint, a business acquaintance of Doe’s “with close ties to Iran” told him that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an Iranian paramilitary organization designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and the European Union, “knows that he provided information to the United States Government, and it intends to kill him.”“John Doe… also has received texts and instant messages threatening action against him by the IRGC,” the complaint states. “It has been publicly reported that agents of the Government of Iran have killed dozens of persons on foreign soil, and kidnapped hundreds of them,” the complaint says. “This activity, and the fact that the Government of Iran does so with impunity, has added to the fear and anxiety of [Doe].”It says Doe’s two family members were also caught in the crosshairs of the regime, which sent a squad of intelligence agents to break into their home. There, the operatives identified themselves, after which they “threatened them and their children.”The family subsequently fled Iran, according to the complaint. “The nearby country where they are now domiciled publicly hosts numerous agents of the Government of Iran, so they must live there in secret,” it states. Doe argues that the attacks on him and his relatives, and his property, constitute “acts of terrorism.” He is demanding a jury trial, along with “compensatory, economic, consequential, incidental and punitive money damages in an amount substantially exceeding $5 million.”

How does this end? With Hamas holding firm and fighting back in Gaza, Israel faces only bad options
JERUSALEM (AP)/May 23, 2024 
Diminished but not deterred, Hamas is still putting up a fight after seven brutal months of war with Israel, regrouping in some of the hardest-hit areas in northern Gaza and resuming rocket attacks into nearby Israeli communities.
Israel initially made tactical advances against Hamas after a devastating aerial bombardment paved the way for its ground troops. But those early gains have given way to a grinding struggle against an adaptable insurgency — and a growing feeling among many Israelis that their military faces only bad options, drawing comparisons with U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This was the subtext of a rebellion in recent days by two members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's three-man War Cabinet — Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, Netanyahu's main political rival — who demanded that he come up with detailed postwar plans. They supported Israel's retaliation for Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, including one of the heaviest bombing campaigns in recent history, ground operations that obliterated entire neighborhoods and border restrictions that the U.N.'s World Food Program says pushed parts of the territory into famine. But now the two retired generals fear a prolonged, costly re-occupation of Gaza, from which Israel withdrew soldiers and settlers in 2005. They are also opposed to a withdrawal that would leave Hamas in control or lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state. Instead, they have put forth alternatives that many Israelis see as wildly unrealistic. Hamas, meanwhile, has proposed its own postwar plan.
Here's a look at four ways this war might end.
FULL-SCALE MILITARY OCCUPATION
Netanyahu has promised a “total victory” that would remove Hamas from power, dismantle its military capabilities and return the scores of hostages it still holds from the attack that triggered the war. He has said victory could come within weeks if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah, which Israel portrays as the last Hamas stronghold. Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli general and former deputy commander of the Gaza division, says that's only the beginning. He said Israel would need to remain in control to prevent Hamas from regrouping. “If you don’t drain the swamp, you cannot deal with the mosquitoes. And drain the swamp means a complete change in the education system, and dealing with local leadership and not with a terror organization,” he said. "This is a generational process. It’s not going to happen in a day.”
Far-right members of Netanyahu's governing coalition, who hold the key to his remaining in power, have called for permanent occupation, “voluntary emigration” of large numbers of Palestinians to anywhere that will have them, and rebuilding of Jewish settlements in Gaza. Most Israelis are opposed, pointing to the immense costs of stationing thousands of troops in the territory that is home to 2.3 million Palestinians. As an occupying power, Israel would likely be held responsible for providing health, education and other services. It's unclear to what extent international donors would step in to fund reconstruction amid ongoing hostilities. There's also no guarantee such an occupation would eliminate Hamas. Israel was in full control of Gaza when Hamas was established in the late 1980s. Israel’s 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon coincided with the rise of Hezbollah, and Israeli troops routinely battle militants in the West Bank, which it has controlled since 1967.
A LIGHTER OCCUPATION, AIDED BY ‘UNICORNS’
Netanyahu has said Israel will maintain security control over Gaza but delegate civilian administration to local Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas or the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank. He has suggested that Arab and other countries assist with governance and rebuilding.
But so far, none have shown interest. No Palestinians are known to have offered to cooperate with the Israeli military, perhaps because Hamas has said they would be treated as collaborators, a veiled death threat. Efforts to reach out to Palestinian businessmen and powerful families “have ended in catastrophe,” says Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst of Palestinian affairs at Tel Aviv University and a former military intelligence officer. He says Israelis seeking such allies are searching for “unicorns" — something that does not exist. Arab states have also roundly rejected this scenario — even the United Arab Emirates, which is one of the few to formally recognize Israel and has close ties with it. “The UAE refuses to be involved in any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said this month.
A GRAND BARGAIN
Instead, Arab states have coalesced around a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the decades-old conflict and transforming the Middle East. Under this plan, a reformed Palestinian Authority would govern Gaza with the assistance of Arab and Muslim nations, including Saudi Arabia, which would normalize relations with Israel in return for a U.S. defense pact and help in building a civilian nuclear program. But U.S. and Saudi officials say that hinges on Israel committing to a credible path to eventual Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu has ruled out such a scenario — as have Gallant and Gantz — saying it would reward Hamas and result in a militant-run state on Israel's borders. Palestinians say ending Israel's decades-long occupation and creating a fully independent state in Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem — territories Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war — is the only way to end the cycle of bloodshed. Hamas has said it would accept a two-state solution on at least an interim basis, but its political program still calls for the “full liberation of Palestine,” including what is now Israel. Hamas has also said it must be part of any postwar settlement.
A DEAL WITH HAMAS
Hamas has proposed a very different grand bargain — one that, ironically enough, might be more palatable to Israelis than the U.S.-Saudi deal. The militant group has proposed a phased agreement in which it would release all of the hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners — including senior militants — as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a lengthy cease-fire and reconstruction. That would almost certainly leave Hamas in control of Gaza and potentially allow it to rebuild its military capabilities. Hamas might even claim victory, despite the extensive death and destruction suffered by Palestinian civilians since Oct. 7. But thousands of Israeli protesters have taken to the streets in recent weeks calling on their leaders to take such a deal, because it's probably the only way to get the hostages back. They accuse Netanyahu of standing in the way of such an agreement because it could lead his far-right allies to bring down his government, potentially ending his political career and exposing him to prosecution on corruption charges. Supporters of such a deal say there would be other benefits for Israel, beyond freeing the hostages. The low-intensity conflict with Lebanon's Hezbollah would likely die down as regional tensions ease, allowing tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border to return to their homes. Israel could finally reckon with the security failures that led to Oct. 7. And it could prepare for another inevitable round of fighting. Milshtein says Israel should adopt Hamas' concept of a “hudna” — a prolonged period of strategic calm. “Hudna doesn’t mean a peace agreement," he said. “It’s a cease-fire that you will exploit in order to make yourself stronger and then to attack and surprise your enemy.”

Families of Israeli hostages release video of female soldiers being captured by Hamas
JERUSALEM (AP)/ May 23, 2024
A group representing the families of hostages held in Gaza has released new video footage showing Hamas’ capture of five female Israeli soldiers near the Gaza border on Oct. 7. The video shows several of the young soldiers bloody and wounded. In one scene, a militant tells one of the terrified women she is beautiful. The footage was taken by Hamas militants who stormed the Nahal Oz military base, part of the militant group’s wider assault on southern Israel that killed roughly 1,200 people and took about 250 others hostage. Seven female soldiers who worked as lookouts on the border with Gaza were taken captive from Nahal Oz, said the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which released the footage. All were 19 or 20. The army rescued one of the women early in the war in a ground operation and said a second was killed in Hamas captivity. The five women in the video are believed to still be held by Hamas. The Israeli army recently declassified the video and turned it over to the women’s families. The forum said the families made the footage public in an attempt to pressure the government into reaching a cease-fire deal with Hamas that would free their loved ones. “Every new testimony about what happened to the hostages echoes the same tragic truth — we must bring them all back home, now,” the forum said in a statement. “The Israeli government must not waste another moment.”Israel has released similar photos and videos from the Oct. 7 rampage in a campaign aimed at shoring up support for the ongoing war in Gaza. The footage released Wednesday is roughly three minutes and edited, with some images blurred to censor what the forum said is especially sensitive material. It shows a group of more than a dozen armed militants binding the soldiers, two of whom had visible bloodstains on their faces. In the video, the women try to converse with the militants. One says in English, “I have friends in Palestine.” One militant yells back in English for them to be quiet. In other scenes, militants kneel to pray in front of at least four of the female soldiers, who are handcuffed and seated on the ground. One bears visible cuts on her legs, and her blood pools onto the ground beneath her as a militant binds her hands behind her back. At least one of the soldiers appears to be in her pajamas, with blood visible on her face. One of the militants points at her and, in English, says, “You are beautiful.”In a statement, Hamas called the video “a manipulated excerpt” whose authenticity “cannot be verified.” The militant group said the minor injuries and blood on the soldiers “is to be expected in such operations,” but denied physically assaulting the women. Israel’s offensive on Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas attack, has killed about 35,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians. Ashley Waxman Bakshi, a cousin of Agam Berger, one of the women in the video, said that she cried the first time she saw it. “Toward the end, I felt like I was going to throw up. I think any person who watches this video will understand that feeling, especially as a woman,” she said. Other footage shows the militants dragging two of the female soldiers toward a jeep as gunfire rattles. One is led to the vehicle barefoot, hopping on one foot because of an apparent leg injury. In another scene, a group of militants holds a hostage by their hands and feet. It is not clear whether the hostage is alive or dead. Another scene shows three of the female soldiers in the back of a moving vehicle, faces bloodied as militants yell around them. Berger, who is wearing a brown shirt, is one of them.
“We know she’s alive. We can feel it. She has a twin sister, she feels her,” Bakshi said of her cousin. “She was taken hostage not severely injured. You can see from the video."

German police clear pro-Palestinian protesters from Berlin university
BERLIN (AP) /May 23, 2024
German police cleared about 150 pro-Palestinian demonstrators from a Berlin university faculty on Thursday, ending one of a wave of student-led protests across Europe over Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas. Activists had occupied several rooms of the Humboldt University’s Institute for Social Sciences in downtown Berlin on Wednesday. Student Coalition Berlin, the group which organized the protest, called in a statement posted on social media for the university to “take an active role in ending the genocide against the people of Palestine and their decades-long suffering.”University administrators agreed after talks with protest leaders to let them stay until Thursday evening. But they called in the police when some of them refused to leave, German news agency dpa reported. Police spokeswoman Beate Ostertag said that, while some of the demonstrators left voluntarily, police officers had to lead others from the building. Police said about 130 people were briefly detained during the operation, in which officers broke through several barricaded doors. Student protests over the war in Gaza that began in the United States have spread to university campuses in many European countries. In Germany, protests have taken place this week at universities in cities including Munich and Leipzig. Berlin authorities have taken a tough line against anti-Israeli demonstrations, urging police to step in if demonstrators use slogans that could incite hatred against Jews – taboo in a country marked by the memory of the Holocaust. “There is no place for hate and anti-Semitism in Berlin and at our universities,” said Burkard Dregger, a lawmaker for the Christian Democratic Union, which leads the Berlin state government.

Putin has 'both eyes' on a strategic island belonging to new NATO member Sweden, army commander says
Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/May 23, 2024
Putin is eyeing a key island in the Baltic Sea to dominate the waters, Sweden's army chief said.
Gotland is near both Sweden and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
It became a key NATO asset after Sweden joined the bloc earlier this year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is targeting a strategic Swedish island that offers mastery over the Baltic Sea, the commander-in-chief of Sweden's army warned this week. "I'm sure that Putin even has both eyes on Gotland. Putin's goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea," Micael Bydén told German news outlets, according to Politico's translation of his remarks. Sweden joined NATO in early March, and the alliance is now the dominant force in the Baltic Sea, thanks in large part to its control of Gotland. The island is one of the Baltic Sea's largest, situated about 50 miles from the Swedish coast and 150 miles from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. It's comparable in size to Rhode Island, but has a population of just 60,000. "If Russia takes control and seals off the Baltic Sea, it would have an enormous impact on our lives — in Sweden and all other countries bordering the Baltic Sea," Bydén said. "We can't allow that," he added. According to Bydén, Russia could seek to harm NATO's interests in the Baltic directly, or by underhanded tactics. He raised the possibility of Russia's aging oil tankers deliberately causing an environmental disaster there, with Moscow then passing it off as an accident. He also said the tankers offer Russia the possibilities for espionage, illicit transport, and underwater sabotage. More directly, invading Gotland would end the peace and stability of the Nordic and Baltic region, Bydén said. The sea cannot become "Putin's playground" from which he can intimidate the eight NATO countries that surround it, he added. Russia's Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment on Bydén's remarks. Russia caused uproar this week with the publication of draft proposals to unilaterally redraw its map of the Baltic Sea, expanding its claim on what waters are part of Russia's territory, as The Moscow Times reported.
Sweden Gotland Island C-130
Swedish military officials watch a Swedish C-130H take off from a non-traditional runway on Gotland Island on October 23, 2021.US Army/Sgt. Patrik Orcutt
The proposal quickly disappeared from the Russian government portal on which it had been posted, following scathing remarks from leaders in Lithuania, Finland, and Latvia, Politico reported. Fortifying Gotland was brought up as one of the first topics of discussion after Sweden joined NATO in March, Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told the Financial Times at the time. Following the relative calm of the post-Cold War years, the island was demilitarized in 2005. But in the wake of Russia's attacks on Ukraine, it has slowly seen an increased military presence, including the revival of Sweden's Gotland Regiment. Two months into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Swedish government allocated $160 million toward the island's military infrastructure. And late last year, the US signed a defense agreement with Sweden giving the US access to a number of military bases, including Gotland — a move that would enable it to move quickly against any threats in the region.

Putin Is Making Nato Nervous By Hinting He Wants To Redraw Russia's Baltic Sea Borders
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost UK/May 23, 2024
There is growing concern within Nato that Vladimir Putin has his eyes on the Baltic Sea. It comes after the Russian ministry of defence posted a proposal to redraw the borders around the arm of the Atlantic Ocean on the Kremlin’s website.
It was deleted within 24 hours – but the move was still labelled as an “obvious escalation” from the Kremlin. The Russian defence ministry claimed that the borders in the area dating back to 1985 “do not fully correspond to current geographical situation”. The proposal did not explain if that meant redefining the border or repositioning it altogether. Even though the Baltic Sea does not border much of Russia’s mainland, the country is still connected via its exclave of Kaliningrad – sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania – and the Gulf of Finland, which touches St Petersburg. However, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov claimed there was “nothing political” in the proposal. He said: “You can see how tensions are escalating, the level of confrontation, particularly in the Baltic region, demands the necessary steps from our relevant agencies to ensure our security.” Baltic countries have repeatedly warned Nato that Russia could eventually move to attack more western nations, having already invaded Ukraine. Nato members Sweden, Finland and Lithuania have all spoken out about Moscow’s latest move. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that Russia and Sweden signed a UN convention regulating how such changes are made – meaning it assumes Moscow will not try to redraw the Baltic Sea borders. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Wednesday: “Another Russian hybrid operation is under way, this time attempting to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea. “This is an obvious escalation against Nato and the EU and must be met with an appropriately firm response.”Finnish president Alexander Stubb said: “Russia has not been in contact with Finland on the matter. Finland acts as always: calmly and based on facts.”The commander-in-chief of the Swedish armed forces, General Micael Byden has expressed another fear this week, too. He told the RND news site that its island of Gotland – in the middle of the Baltic Sea – is at risk of Russian invasion. He said: “There were times when we reduced our military presence on Gotland to such an extent that we only had a volunteer home defence force there. “Those peaceful times are over. The war in Ukraine changed the political situation in Europe and we had to massively rearm Gotland.”Byden added: “Whoever controls Gotland controls the Baltic Sea. At the moment, that’s us. ”He warned that if Putin seize it, he will threaten the Nato countries from the sea, adding: “I’m sure that Putin has both eyes on Gotland. Putin’s goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea.”Byden warned about the Aland Island too, an autonomous region of Finland near Sweden based at the Gulf of Bothnia. He said: “The Baltic Sea must not become Putin’s playground, where he can terrorise the members of Nato.”

US to Announce Additional $275ml in Military Aid for Ukraine
Asharq Al Awsat/23 May 2024
The United States is expected to announce an additional $275 million in military aid for Ukraine on Friday as Kyiv struggles to hold off advances by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region, two US officials say. This will be the fourth installment of military aid for Ukraine since Congress passed a long-delayed foreign aid bill late last month and comes as the Biden administration has pledged to keep weapons flowing regularly and to get them to the front lines as quickly as possible, The AP reported. The package includes high mobility artillery rocket systems, or HIMARS, as well 155 mm and 105 mm high-demand artillery rounds, according to the two US officials. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details of the aid package before the public announcement. It follows a monthly gathering Monday of about 50 defense leaders from Europe and elsewhere who meet regularly to coordinate getting more military aid to Ukraine. At this latest meeting, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Ukraine was in a “moment of challenge” due to Russia’s new onslaught on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. He pledged to keep weapons moving “week after week.” In the month since President Joe Biden signed the $95 billion foreign aid package, which included about $61 billion for Ukraine, the US has announced and started to send almost $1.7 billion in weapons pulled from Pentagon stockpiles. It’s also announced $6 billion in funding through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. That pays for longer-term contracts with the defense industry and means that the weapons could take many months or years to arrive. With this latest package, the US has now provided almost $51 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022.

Iran prepares to bury Raisi, Abdollahian, and 6 others killed in helicopter crash
Associated Press/23 May 2024
Iran on Thursday prepared to inter its late president at the holiest site for Shiite Muslims in the Islamic Republic, a final sign of respect for a protégé of Iran's supreme leader killed in a helicopter crash earlier this week. President Ebrahim Raisi's burial at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad caps days of processionals through much of Iran, seeking to bolster the country's theocracy after the crash killing him, the country's foreign minister and six others. However, the services have not drawn the same crowd as those who gathered for services for Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020, slain by a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad. It's a potential sign of the public's feelings about Raisi's presidency that saw the government harshly crack down on all dissent during protests over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, detained for allegedly not wearing her mandatory headscarf to authorities' liking. That crackdown, as well as Iran's struggling economy, have gone unmentioned in the hours of coverage provided by state television and in newspapers. Also never discussed was Raisi's involved in the mass execution of an estimated 5,000 dissidents at the end of the Iran-Iraq war.
Prosecutors have warned people against showing any public signs of celebrating Raisi's death and a heavy security force presence has been seen in Tehran since the crash. Thursday morning, thousands in black gathered along a main boulevard in the city of Birjand, Raisi's hometown in Iran's South Khorasan province along the Afghan border. A semitruck bore his casket down the street, with mourners reached out to touch it and tossing scarves and other items to be placed against it for a blessing. A sign on the truck read: "This is the shrine."
Later, Raisi will be buried at the Imam Reza Shrine, where Shiite Islam's 8th imam is buried. The region long has been associated with Shiite pilgrimage. A hadith attributed to Islam's Prophet Mohammad says anyone with sorrow or sin will be relieved through visiting there. In 2016, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei appointed Raisi to run the Imam Reza charity foundation, which manages a vast conglomerate of businesses and endowments in Iran, as well as oversees the shrine. It is one of many bonyads, or charitable foundations, fueled by donations or assets seized after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
These foundations offer no public accounting of their spending and answer only to Iran's supreme leader. The Imam Reza charity, known as "Astan-e Quds-e Razavi" in Farsi, is believed to be one of the biggest in the country. Analysts estimate its worth at tens of billions of dollars as it owns almost half the land in Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city. Raisi will be the first top politician in the country to be buried at the shrine, which represents a major honor for the cleric. The death of Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six others in the crash on Sunday comes at a politically sensitive moment for Iran, both at home and abroad. Raisi, who was 63, had been discussed as a possible successor to Iran's supreme leader, the 85-year-old Khamenei. None of Iran's living past presidents — other than Khamenei, who was president from 1981 until 1989 — could be seen in state television footage of Wednesday's prayers. The authorities gave no explanation for their apparent absence. Iran has set June 28 as the next presidential election. For now, there's no clear favorite for the position among Iran's political elite — particularly no one who is a Shiite cleric, like Raisi. Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, a relatively unknown first vice president until Sunday's crash, has stepped into his role and even attended a meeting between Khamenei and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on

Heads of Iran-allied militant groups meet in Tehran
Agence France Presse/May 23/ 2024 |
Leaders of the Iran-led, so-called "axis of resistance", including Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah's Naim Qassem, discussed the war in Gaza during a meeting in Tehran on the sidelines of president Ebrahim Raisi's funeral, state media reported Thursday. The "axis of resistance" brings together Iran's regional allies in the fight against Israel, including the Palestinian movement Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi Shiite armed groups. The leaders of these movements met Wednesday after attending ceremonies organised in Tehran to pay tribute to Raisi, who died Sunday in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. The meeting was attended by Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's Qatar-based political bureau, as well as Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem and Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam. Haniyeh had also previously had an audience with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian officials meanwhile included General Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, the foreign operations branch of the guards. They discussed "the latest political, social and military situation in Gaza and the Al-Aqsa Flood operation and the role of the resistance front," state broadcaster IRIB reported. The meeting reportedly stressed "the continuation of jihad and struggle until the complete victory of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza with the participation of all resistance groups and fronts in the region", IRIB said. Hezbollah's Al-Manar channel also reported the meeting, broadcasting photos. Iran's Fars news agency said representatives of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Iraqi groups were also present at the meeting. Since the start of the war in Gaza in October, Iran's foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who also died in the helicopter accident, had increased his trips to the region, particularly to Lebanon and Syria. Iran is a key backer of Hamas, but has repeatedly denied involvement in the Palestinian group's October 7 attack on Israel.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 23-24/2024
The Butcher Is Dead. What Comes Next for Iran?
Reuel Marc Gerecht/The Free Press/May 23/ 2024 |
The unexpected death of the Iranian president may be the vent that allows a volcano of rage to explode. Reuel Marc Gerecht explains.
In the 24 hours after the unexpected death of the Islamic Republic’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, the following things happened: the BBC published a headline about his “mixed legacy,” the UN flew its flag at half-staff to honor him, and the U.S. Senate chaplain offered a prayer for him on the Senate floor.
Such morally bankrupt responses would shock Iranians who launched fireworks in cities across the country after his death, took to social media to celebrate it, and handed out candy in the street.
The question is whether the people celebrating on social media, and the ones keeping their disgust for the regime out of the limelight, can convulse the theocracy’s political system. In 50 days, according to Iranian law, the government must hold a presidential election. Will Iranians take to the streets in great numbers?
Never underestimate the Iranian people, who have consistently risen up over the last decade. The last regime-shaking protests were sparked by a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, 22, who died while she was in the custody of the morality police in 2022 for not wearing a headscarf.
Given Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s success last year in violently suppressing those protests—at least 516 people were killed, almost 900 injured, and 20,000 jailed—the 85-year-old won’t be squeamish in crushing rallies that again challenge the theocracy’s legitimacy.
But Khamenei must be wary because beneath the surface, Iran is essentially a volcano—a large magma pool of discontent always pressing against the security services, hunting for a weak point, a provocation, that will crack the fear that keeps back an eruption. Raisi’s death won’t likely produce a tremor, but whenever the regime’s security services confront the Iranian people, a fissure might happen.
One thing that won’t change is the Biden administration’s approach to Iran.
Although Raisi wasn’t the worst mullah that Khamenei could have advanced to the presidency in 2021 (there were a few even more brutal and religiously twisted), he was among those whose evil was clearly documented. Raisi earned the sobriquet “The Butcher of Tehran” when he served as the prosecutor general of the city between 1989 and 1994. He participated in a so-called death commission that ordered the executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. And yet, after his “election,” the Biden administration didn’t hesitate to try to reestablish another nuclear deal and some kind of peaceful regional modus vivendi with the Islamic Republic.
Our strategic reality is this: Iran could have Jack the Ripper as president and Joe Biden and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, would still choose to continue Barack Obama’s policy of engagement. Who the Iranian theocrats are—who and how they have tortured and killed, who they support (the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, the Assad regime in Syria), and who they have aligned with (Russia, China, North Korea)—never intrude sufficiently to alter Washington’s current course. When it comes to Iran, with most Democrats, we are on an endless left-wing “realist” loop where the overriding objective is to avoid war.
Such timidity has left others in the region more vulnerable and has only encouraged Tehran to push the envelope. Iran’s surging “axis of resistance” is a by-product of American appeasement. So is Iran’s increasing stockpile of enriched uranium and its insouciant, up-yours attitude toward the International Atomic Energy Agency’s efforts to monitor Tehran’s machinations. It has led to the duel between Israel and the Islamic Republic and it could easily lead to a big regional war, with the U.S. obliged to intervene—exactly what Team Biden has been so determined to avoid.
Khamenei has a pretty acute understanding of how many Iranians now loathe his rule. Just listen to his praetors, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, dissect the internal threats (increasing secularization, hatred of the clergy, the continuing Westernization of Iranian women, disgust at official corruption), and one can clearly see that he understands the dimension of today’s sedition and the need for a firm, ruthlessly clever hand on the tiller.
Although many considered Raisi to be the obvious successor to Khamenei, I’ve always thought it doubtful for the simple reason that he really wasn’t clever. Raisi made Khamenei look like a clerical rock star. The supreme leader probably wanted Raisi’s blunt skill set—the Butcher was a ruthless enforcer even before his role in the infamous political prisoner trials of 1988.
That said, I don’t think it’s analytically helpful to try to guess who Khamenei will tap as his successor—assuming he doesn’t die before his plans are in motion. But if Khamenei intends to advance his 54-year-old son, Mojtaba—whose candidacy could generate a lot of opposition from those in the Islamic Republic opposed to dynastic succession—the element of surprise will be essential.
Khamenei’s cunning has seen him survive for 35 years, but also deprived him of a revolutionary clerical and lay aristocracy to draw upon to replace Raisi because he has prevented independent power bases and networks from gaining too much strength. The supreme leader has tried to make the Islamic Republic institutionally independent of personality (his excepted). He has regularly shuffled senior Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders—though always keeping close his personal favorites, like the dark lord, Qasem Soleimani, killed by a U.S. drone in 2020. He has demoted or banished from politics most of the first-generation revolutionaries who made the Islamic Republic.
Now Khamenei may need to seek more support from the younger generations that he has nourished; these are for the most part hardcore, unpolished revolutionaries. Would Khamenei have sufficient trust in a president chosen from these ranks? Would he trust them to follow his orders after his death?
In the Islamic Republic, there are a lot of competing forces that could be unleashed by Raisi’s death: clerics vs. the Revolutionary Guard Corps, rich clerics and Guardsmen vs. poor ones, cynics vs. true believers, and the people vs. the government. The ruling elite’s greatest advantage is that it knows that they will all go down if internecine strife breaks out. Raisi’s death now requires the clerical regime to engage again in a potentially risky electoral fraud—pretending presidential choices exist when all has been arranged by the supreme leader and his minions. The regime’s rhetoric, which now verges on Newspeak, can make even faithful Iranians angry.
The security services will, most probably, be able to handle any internal dissent. But it would be a delightful irony if Raisi’s unexpected demise led the regime—Khamenei personally—to make mistakes that cracked the fear that allows the theocracy to survive.
*Reuel Marc Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Blinken’s careless spin is encouraging terrorists to put more civilians in danger
Lt. Col. Geoffrey Corn (ret.),/The Hill/May 23/2024
President Joe Biden was right to condemn as “outrageous” Monday’s decision by the International Criminal Court prosecutor to submit arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and defense minister. Unfortunately, an ill-informed report and comments last week by Biden’s own Secretary of State, on Israel’s use of American-made weapons, may have contributed to the prosecutor’s decision.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrongly declared on May 12 that the civilian casualty numbers reported by Hamas make it “reasonable to conclude that there are instances where Israel has acted in ways that are not consistent with international humanitarian law.” As Blinken should know, a particular attack’s legality is not dependent on the number of casualties actually inflicted, let alone on a terrorist group’s fictitious figures. Like Blinken’s ill-considered comments, the May 10 State Department report on Israel’s use of American-made weapons invented a new, casualty-numbers-based test for determining compliance with international humanitarian law. Blinken’s new test endangers U.S. security. In particular, it incentivizes terrorists and authoritarian regimes worldwide to imitate Hamas’ tactics of hiding behind human shields to increase actual casualties, of stealing food intended for starving civilians and of inventing additional civilian casualties out of thin air.
The men and women of the U.S. and allied armed forces deserve better than to have their lives and reputations put at risk by enemies using human shields, stealing relief supplies and falsifying casualty numbers. Congress must therefore pressure the administration to change course.
The State Department report’s most substantive finding, unfortunately ignored by most headlines, was that the available information was insufficient to definitively identify even one specific Israeli violation of international humanitarian law, also known as the law of war. So why did the report also speculate, in a sentence that was highlighted in headlines worldwide, that “it is reasonable to assess” that U.S.-made weapons “have been used by Israeli security forces since October 7 in instances inconsistent with its [legal] obligations or with established best practices for mitigating civilian harm.” Blinken provided the rationale in a May 12 interview, saying that “what the report concludes is that, based on the totality of the harm that’s been done to children, to women, to men who are caught in this crossfire of Hamas’s making, it’s reasonable to conclude that there are instances where Israel has acted in ways that are not consistent with international humanitarian law.”
But the accusations by Blinken and in the report rely on false data from Hamas, mischaracterize international humanitarian law itself, and disregard Hamas’s frequent tactic of hiding behind civilians.
For example, the report explicitly adopted Hamas’s invented number of 34,700 Palestinians killed during the conflict. On May 2, a report demonstrated that Hamas’ list of Palestinian victims does not include names for 10,000 of the purported dead. And, unsurprisingly, on May 8, the UN halved its estimate of women and children killed in Gaza.
Every civilian death is a tragedy, and there is no debate that the intentional targeting of civilians is a war crime. But the law of war makes clear that unintended civilian deaths are often not violations.
Under international humanitarian law, an attack’s legality is not determined by the number of civilians killed, but by whether it was intended to harm civilians, or whether the attacker knew at the time of launch that the attack could cause collateral civilian harm that would be excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage. If not for this, unscrupulous defenders would be incentivized to surround themselves with human shields.
The test of a law-abiding military is therefore not how many civilians are inadvertently killed amid the fog and split-second timing of war. The test is rather whether that military vigorously implements and enforces robust compliance procedures.
The State Department report makes clear that Israel meets that actual test of compliance with international humanitarian law. It describes Israel’s robust compliance procedures, says the U.S. “has no direct indication of Israel intentionally targeting civilians,” and states that Israel aborts strikes when civilians are observed near their targets. The report also confirms that Israel is responding to Gaza-related misconduct allegations by examining “hundreds of incidents,” a number of which have become “ongoing, active criminal investigations.”
In contrast — and ironically absent from any headline — the report notes that “Hamas does not follow any portion of and consistently violates” international humanitarian law It states that “Hamas has embedded itself deliberately within and underneath the civilian population to use civilians as human shields,” a flagrant violation.
The report makes clear that Hamas units not only hide among civilians, hoping to blend in, but that in fact they purposefully launch attacks from amongst civilians. It says that Hamas persistently seeks “to hide behind civilian populations and infrastructure and expose [civilians] to military action.” It also accuses Hamas of repeatedly “launching attacks on Israeli troops” from designated safe zones. The report acknowledges that these Hamas tactics make Gaza “as difficult a battlespace as any military has faced in modern warfare.”
Israel’s diligence has nevertheless ensured that the Gaza war’s ratio between Hamas fighters killed and Palestinian civilians killed is in fact historically low. In the 2016-17 battle for Mosul, supervised by the U.S., approximately 10,000 civilians were killed compared to roughly 4,000 ISIS fighters. In the Gaza war, if the new UN casualty figures are correct, the ratio is 5 times more favorable — only about one Palestinian civilian for every two Hamas fighters killed.
Blinken’s comments suggest that U.S. and allied forces must henceforth exceed that standard. Knowing that, U.S. adversaries can conclude that they can simply insulate themselves from attack, making it impossible to defeat them, by surrounding themselves with human shields.
Congress should insist that the administration stop echoing Hamas’ fraudulent casualty figures and stop incentivizing enemies to endanger civilians by using them as human shields. As it happens, the “Strengthening Tools to Counter the Use of Human Shields Act,” enacted just last month, requires the president to submit to Congress a list of, and impose financial sanctions on, all foreign persons involved in Hamas using human shields. Congress should insist that President Biden do so now.
The message from the U.S. should be clear and consistent: Responsibility for the tragic civilian casualties in Gaza belongs to Hamas as the result of its illegal tactics, and not on the shoulders of an Israeli military that makes extraordinary efforts to avoid such harm. Ironically, Blinken is signaling the exact opposite message, a message inconsistent with much of his own department’s report.
**Lt. Col. Geoffrey Corn (ret.), a Texas Tech University law professor and JINSA distinguished fellow, previously served as the U.S. Army’s senior law of war expert. Orde Kittrie, an Arizona State University law professor and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, previously served as a U.S. State Department attorney.

Maximum Support Memo/A New Strategic Direction for U.S. Iran Policy
Behnam Ben Taleblu/Saeed Ghasseminejad/Cameron Khansarinia/Andrew Ghalili/FDD/May 23, 2024
America’s Iran policy has become increasingly ineffective, partisan, and predictable. Faced with multifaceted and enduring threats from the Islamic Republic, Washington has embraced a reactive posture that has failed to adequately deter and roll back regime-sponsored terrorism, nuclear escalation, and domestic repression. This shortcoming is contagious and emboldens other American adversaries, including Tehran’s regional terror proxies, known as the Axis of Resistance, as well as authoritarian and revisionist states like Russia, China, and North Korea. Worse, U.S. policy has left Washington largely flat-footed in the face of a boom-and-bust cycle of anti-regime protests across Iran for almost a decade.
Leaders in the United States and around the world are grappling with the implications of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s unexpected death in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. The people of Iran immediately took to the streets in celebration of the death of Raisi, who was commonly known as the ‘Butcher of Tehran’ for his role in the massacre of tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents. Now is the perfect time for American leaders to dispose of empty rhetoric and instead express their support for the Iranian people’s democratic aspirations through words and actions.
To correct America’s course and reset the chessboard against the Islamic Republic, Washington should embrace a strategy that is sustainable, cost-effective, and more in concert with American values and interests in the Middle East. Maximum Support for the Iranian people is an integral component of such a strategy.
When combined with “Maximum Pressure” against the clerical regime in Tehran — which should entail robust political and economic pressure against the Islamic Republic from abroad — Maximum Support taps into the organic and longstanding domestic resistance to the regime from within Iran. Taken together, these two pillars allow policymakers to synergize U.S. policy and better align ways, means, and ends. To ensure effectiveness, policies supporting this framework should be measured against the Hippocratic oath of first “do no harm” to the interests of either the United States or the Iranian people. In particular, Washington should respect Iran’s territorial integrity and national unity; refrain from engaging with armed groups or former terrorist organizations; and avoid enriching the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism.
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI) have worked over the past two years to develop specific proposals not only to hold the Islamic Republic accountable for its foreign aggression and domestic oppression but also to support the Iranian people.1 This joint 10-point plan represents a distillation of our views, which reflect input from elements of the American think-tank and policy community, activists and analysts from the Iranian-American community, and leading dissidents inside Iran.
1. Review efficacy of U.S. government projects supporting the people of Iran.
The U.S. government currently spends tens of millions of dollars on Iran-related funding across the Persian-language programming of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), the State Department’s Near East Regional Democracy (NERD) program and Global Engagement Center (GEC), and other initiatives. Each of these programs should be subjected to an audit and impact analysis. Washington should cut low-performing projects in their entirety in favor of projects with tangible impact and measurable outcomes inside Iran. Even longstanding projects should face rigorous scrutiny. Washington should give funding priority toward grants or projects that resolve chronic issues the Iranian people have endured, such as the termination of internet access by the regime.
2. Enforce oil and petrochemical sanctions.
A vigorous sanctions regime with adequate legal, political, bureaucratic, and financial support that metes out punishment over time against Tehran will significantly reduce available resources for the regime’s nuclear, missile, and drone programs. This approach will also have the secondary effect of shrinking the pie available to pro-regime elites and security forces during times of crisis such as nationwide protests.
U.S. departments and offices charged with enforcing these sanctions should include the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the State Department’s Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation, and the Department of Homeland Security. All three should receive increased funding and personnel to monitor sanctions’ effectiveness and enforcement. They should also build support for such penalties with America’s diplomatic partners.
With respect to any confiscated assets or shipments of oil, petrochemicals, or other sanctioned products and commodities, the United States should develop an Iran Democracy Fund that would allow it to underwrite the forthcoming elements of its Iran policy without drawing on pre-appropriated taxpayer funds.
3. Offer internet and communications solutions to facilitate freedom of expression.
The Islamic Republic frequently impedes Iranians’ access to the internet in order to prevent their communication with one another and the outside world. The U.S. government can help ensure Iranians’ right to freedom of expression by supporting access to the internet and other communications tools. This should include expanding existing programs that provide free VPNs and engaging with private sector partners like Starlink.
The U.S. government should also hold accountable technology companies, many of which are affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, that are active in Iran or may have affiliates or subsidiaries in Iran and may be providing technologies that empower the regime’s repressive cyber apparatus.
4. Place restrictions and sanctions on regime officials and organs.
While allowing dissidents seeking political asylum to escape the regime, the U.S. government should ban travel for all Islamic Republic officials, their family members, and their affiliates unless it can be assessed that they are truly defecting. Furthermore, the United States and its allies should seize the assets of regime officials and their affiliates pursuant to anti-corruption authorities — which exist in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, European Union, Australia, and New Zealand. Washington should also deport regime officials or affiliates already in the United States.
Next, the United States should actively encourage its allies and partners pursuant to their unique counterterrorism authorities to proscribe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in its entirety as a terrorist organization.
Furthermore, the United States should identify and designate the leadership of the IRGC and business empires tied to or controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This includes C-level executives and board members of all companies in their portfolio. The restrictions imposed on them should include asset forfeiture and travel bans. It is imperative that the United States continue to name, shame, and punish Iranian human rights violators through sanctions, designations, asset freezes, and visa bans. This means targeting both national and local political, military, security, religious, and legal officials in Iran engaging in the repression of dissidents and protestors. Washington should apply these penalties multilaterally in conjunction with European partners.
Official delegates from the Islamic Republic seeking to enter the United States for United Nations-related business should be strictly limited, and the physical movement of those permitted to enter should be tightly controlled. Similarly, Washington should incentivize its trans-Atlantic partners to reduce the size of Iran’s diplomatic missions in each country if they are unwilling to expel Iranian diplomats.
5. Support labor strikes.
The United States should create a strike fund to provide basic economic support to Iranian workers willing to go on strike but who would face economic and other forms of retribution from the Islamic Republic. The U.S. government should allow this strike fund, with the logistical support of needed allies, to legally access frozen Iranian assets to finance it. These assets belong to the Iranian people, not to the clerical regime.
6. Develop a regime elite defection program.
The United States should develop a defection strategy and identify pathways to promote it within Iran’s security and political establishment. Such a program will take advantage of existing cleavages and tensions within the regime and increase the likelihood of a non-violent and successful transition from the Islamic Republic. It will help mitigate some of the mistakes made in recent political transitions in the Middle East. These high-level defectors should be thoroughly debriefed by the U.S. intelligence community to ascertain any relevant information on the regime that can be used to weaken it and empower the Iranian people against it.
This program should be developed and maintained in coordination with America’s regional allies and security partners. Successfully vetted defectors should be connected to relevant, trusted forces in the Iranian opposition.
7. Provide cyber and intelligence support.
The fight between the Iranian people and the Islamic Republic is not a fair one. Iranians are waging a peaceful, non-violent campaign against a well-armed, brutal dictatorship. The U.S. government can help level the playing field by offering intelligence support to Iranians and the opposition to help protesters outsmart and outpace the regime’s suppression forces. It can also provide cyber support to protesters by working with regional allies to disable the security forces’ communications and command-and-control capabilities to give protesters a fighting chance. For example, the U.S. government should target the security camera and communication infrastructure of the regime’s oppression machine.
This cyber support can also be used to target the regime’s critical infrastructure, particularly its security forces, to give Iranians both psychological and tactical advantages over the regime.
8. Develop a strategy to engage with the Iranian opposition.
The United States and its allies should not limit their dialogue to the regime — this should be cut altogether — but instead engage the secular, democratic Iranian opposition. This includes organizations and activists in the Iranian-American diaspora and trusted representatives of Iranians inside the country. The U.S. government should determine with whom to engage by examining polling that indicates Iranians’ preferences and by monitoring domestic protests and the chants used by demonstrators.
This engagement should include high-profile, public meetings but also behind-the-scenes coordination and support.
9. Apply diplomatic pressure.
The United States should support Iranians’ efforts and lead an international diplomatic campaign against the Islamic Republic. Just as diplomatic pressure led to Iran’s removal from the United Nations Commission on the Status of Women in 2022, the United States and its allies should categorically delegitimize and deplatform Iran on the international stage. For example, Iran has remained in violation of its safeguards agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency for roughly two decades yet is serving as president of the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva in 2024. Washington should seek Iran’s ejection from this body.
This should also be done in coordination with support for a campaign of lawfare by Iranians to bring civil and criminal cases against the Islamic Republic for transnational repression or violation of fundamental human rights. Washington should even consider hosting public tribunals against regime officials with testimony from victims of Iranian terrorism or repression.
10. Bolster and broaden a communications strategy.
Iranians do not want the world to remove the Islamic Republic for them. They are willing to fight, and even risk their lives, to reclaim their country and their freedoms. But they deserve the vocal, moral support of American leaders in their fight against the Islamist regime. The U.S. government should state clearly and consistently that it supports Iranians’ democratic aspirations and will support their national and popular sovereignty. This must be reinforced across all levels of the U.S. government and through all available communication platforms and tools, including relevant executive departments and Congress. This should include setting up a calendar to systematically organize and proactively prepare communication strategies aimed at Iranians. For example, the president should use his annual Nowruz message to endorse Iranians’ democratic aspirations. The U.S. government should also develop a menu of options that can be strategically deployed to correspond to known events, dates, and anniversaries on the Iranian political calendar, such as the November 2019 or Aban protests or Cyrus the Great Day.
Conversely, poor and mixed messaging, be it from the bully pulpit or social media from official U.S. sources, clips the wings of Iranian protests and dampens the spirit of Iranians seeking change in their own country. For example, the recent use of U.S. communication to promote spin classes, publicize the work of regime officials, and tie in the Palestinian issue and war in Gaza have soured Iranians on America’s public diplomacy.
Conclusion
The time has come for the United States to adopt a policy of maximum support for the Iranian people, who have made clear they reject Tehran’s oppressive clerical regime. While taking care to do no harm, U.S. policy should communicate clearly that Washington supports the Iranian people’s democratic aspirations, will engage with the Iranian opposition, and will use its diplomatic clout to isolate the clerical regime. The United States can also help the opposition mobilize by facilitating its access to the internet, contributing to strike funds, and employing cyber tools to limit security forces’ ability to crush dissent. Finally, Washington should vigorously enforce its own sanctions, which can deprive the regime of resources, while naming and shaming human rights violators. With these measures in place, the United States will have far better options at its disposal when the next wave of mass demonstrations threatens to topple the regime.

Biden’s substitute for victory ...At best, it’s a frozen conflict
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 23/2024
President Biden is helping Ukrainians defend themselves. But he doesn’t want Russia to suffer a serious defeat. President Biden is helping Israelis defend themselves. But he doesn’t want them to decisively defeat Hamas, or to inflict harsh punishment on its patron, the jihadist regime in Tehran. President Biden is trying to prevent Houthi rebels from sinking merchant ships in the strategic waterways off the coast of Yemen. But he’s not defeating the Houthis, another of Tehran’s proxies.
Do you spot a pattern here?
There was a time when American leaders took tougher stands. In World War II, President Franklin D. Roosevelt refused to accept anything less than the “unconditional surrender” of the Third Reich and the Japanese Empire. Ceasefire was not an option.
In 1949, America’s military establishment – formerly known as the War Department – was renamed the Department of Defense. That sounded less bellicose, which was nice, but might it have been an unwise retreat from reality? The following year, thousands of North Korean soldiers backed by Moscow and Beijing poured across the 38th parallel into pro-Western South Korea. In 1953, the Korean War came to a halt – not in victory for one side and defeat for the other – but in an armistice, a frozen conflict. Maybe that was the right decision at the time. But more than 70 years later, the same dynastic dictatorship remains in power in North Korea. It now has nuclear weapons and is firmly aligned with both the Communist ruler of China and the neo-imperialist ruler of Russia.
Those two rulers embraced on a red carpet in Beijing last week. Chinese President Xi Jinping then took Russian President Vladmir Putin on a stroll through Tiananmen Square where, in 1989, Chinese Communist Party troops slaughtered pro-democracy protestors. The two dictators signed a statement reaffirming the “no limits” strategic partnership they first announced in February 2022, just days before Mr. Putin launched his war of conquest against neighboring Ukraine.
They proclaimed a “new era” in which their goal is to make America a no-longer-great nation. They criticized the United States for thinking “in terms of the Cold War” (if only that were true!) and accused the U.S. of posing “a direct threat to the security of Russia and China.” They warned: “The U.S. must abandon this behavior.”
As I write this, Russian forces are advancing in the north-eastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine because the Ukrainians have not had the needed weapons and ammunition in the volume they require. Worse: They’ve been hobbled by President Biden’s insistence that military targets on Russian soil are “off-limits” to Ukrainians using the materiel Washington provides. Both Beijing and Moscow now have increasingly strong ties with the anti-American theocracy in Tehran. Nevertheless, President Biden has been attempting to discourage the Israelis from taking on Hamas’ four intact battalions in Rafah, the Gazan city near the border with Egypt. Under that border, we now know, are at least 50 elaborate smuggling tunnels that have been used – and perhaps still are being used – to resupply Hamas with weapons and ammunition.
That’s one reason John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at West Point, has said that “the approach the U.S. has demanded for Israel’s war has prolonged and caused more destruction then if they had gone in with more overwhelming force and speed.”
He added: “The most likely way to continue the violence and the lack of peace in Israel and Palestine is to leave Hamas in power.”Conventional wisdom holds that Mr. Biden is attempting to placate the Islamist/left alliance – think Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Sen. Bernie Sanders – that, he seems to think, is key to the election outcome in November. I suspect he also believes, as did President Obama, that if he just outstretches his hand, America’s enemies will unclench their fists; that by “respecting the equities” of America’s enemies, he can produce a “realignment” – a new “architecture” of the Middle East that will establish his legacy as a brilliant geo-strategist. And he may believe also, as President Trump too often does, that there’s always a good deal that a talented negotiator can cut.
The hard truth: Either America maintains the power and will to deter its enemies, or those enemies learn to deter America – over and over. As for the “students” who are waging the “tentifada” on college campuses and calling Mr. Biden “Genocide Joe,” they’ve been indoctrinated by the radical ideologues who now dominate the American educational establishment. They root for terrorists who mass-murder, mass-rape, kidnap and burn babies, and vow to repeat such atrocities again and again culminating in what they intend to be a second Holocaust. That’s their idea of “social justice.”
On Saturday, Houthis struck an oil tanker in the Red Sea with a ballistic missile. Among their goals: to prove that the U.S., which for decades has been the guarantor of freedom of the seas, is no longer up to the task of enforcing even the most basic of international laws. President Biden has the power to defeat the Houthis.
With American support, the Ukrainians could drive the Russians from their lands.
The Israelis could free Gaza from Hamas’ dictatorial and jihadist rule more quickly and with less loss of life if it actually had what Mr. Biden calls his “ironclad” support.
I asked if you saw a pattern in all this. I suspect you do but let me spell it out: Tolerating aggression by America’s enemies and limiting support for America’s friends leads, at best, to frozen conflicts. At worst, it leads to vastly increased bloodletting and tragic defeats. What should be obvious is that such policies never lead to victory, for which, as Gen. Douglas MacArthur famously said, there is no substitute.
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times.

South Africa, Putin's Marxist Cadres, and the International Court of Justice
Nils A. Haug/Gatestone Institute/May 23, 2024
[I]n 2023, the ANC, on behalf of the South African government, brought charges of genocide against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This case seems to be another fatuous endeavour by the ANC for prominence....
[T]he ANC has effectively "turned its back on Western values, and expressed its support for countries and organisations that subscribe to terror as a measure and method of governance."
Warren Goldstein, Chief Rabbi of South Africa, citizen.co.za, November 15, 2023
[E]verything Western, regarded as colonialist or imperialist, must be destroyed and recreated according to atheist, socialist, dogma... in pursuit of a revolutionary version of pseudo-egalitarian social justice.
The historic ties of these African countries to the totalitarian countries of Russia, Cuba, and China and to revolutionary movements such as Hamas are as strong as ever.
Through BRICS and other forums aligned with anti-Western actors, these African countries oppose the West with impunity and reject any pretence of joining the West's sphere of nations with their liberal democratic traditions.
Anglo-American nations blissfully ignore Africa's strong connection to despotic regimes and persist in their simplistic approach towards these countries by showering them with financial incentives and arranging unproductive conferences.... African countries gladly accept the offered funds while remaining aligned to totalitarian regimes. Financial enticements by the West for the purposes of gaining favour are made in vain: these leaders remain, at their core, Marxist revolutionaries imposing extreme socialist policies on their populace, unfortunately leading to the demise of hitherto prosperous and productive economies.
Until a positive regime change occurs, no improvement in the lives of the average citizen can be expected. The people get poorer by the day.... The dim prospects of the poor, which led to the protest and resulted in millions of dollars in damage to the economy, have not improved.
Realistic hope turns to despair for southern Africa's political and economic future, particularly South Africa, which is fast approaching a failed state. A 2023 Harvard Kennedy Business School study describes the cause as "collapsing state capacity and spatial exclusion" -- which translates as state inefficiency and the exclusion of whites from certain aspects of the economy. The same can be said of Zimbabwe (very much a failed state), Namibia, and others.
This is the complex world of southern African politics, whose leaders present lip service to the Western ideals of democracy while accepting generous global hand-outs – usually offered, unfortunately, with no demands for accountability.
In South Africa, the most important benefactor of the African National Congress party (ANC) since independence in 1994, providing military support for years, was the former Soviet Union. Despite exhibiting a veneer of democracy, the ANC and their associates, remain fervently Communist-Socialist, adopt Marxist-Leninist socialist dogma as their political worldview and hold Russian President Vladimir Putin in high regard.
In the three decades since the neo-Marxist ANC commenced its rule, however, South Africa, as a country rich in natural resources and with a hitherto first class private business sector, has been experiencing a depressing nearly 40% unofficial unemployment rate, with daily electric power "load-shedding" nationally, a compromised water supply, and endemic corruption at every level of government -- generally to the benefit of a politically connected elite.
During November 2023, for instance, the Office of the Auditor-General estimated that more than 12 billion rands were lost the previous financial year through corruption in government departments. In fact, the authorities have no real idea of the exact amounts involved, as trillions have been "lost" through corruption and maladministration over the last 30 years, severely weakening the country's financial solvency.
The official implementation of Communist "cadre deployment'' strategies into all sectors of the public sector has severely damaged one of Africa's largest and most vibrant economies. Apart from government departments, all State-owned enterprises (SOE) are bankrupt, dysfunctional, and crippled by endemic corruption through ANC appointed cadre directors and managers. These personages draw substantial salaries but are incapable of fulfilling their designated functions competently or at all.
SOE examples include the sole mandated supplier of electricity, ESCOM; the national broadcaster, SABC; the national airline, SAA, the national Post Office, and so on. Long-suffering taxpayers fund these nationalised entities year after year with no improvement in sight.
All major arms of government and the public sector appear to be dominated by socialist, unionised, ANC-appointed loyalists, resulting in a centrally controlled, dysfunctional, public sector designed to generate political allegiance to the regime. South Africa's government employees are considered the highest-paid in the world, relatively speaking, as are politicians at all levels, from local to provincial and national. This situation has led to highly competitive elections, particularly at local level, for the enticing rewards of office. Ironically, the practice has also led to a compromise of democratic principles as elected officials are constantly under threat of assassination. As a result, many persons of integrity are dissuaded from seeking office.
Since July 2018 -- in one province alone, Kwa-Zulu Natal -- more than 150 politicians, either elected or standing for election, have been assassinated. In addition, 300 cases of politically motivated crimes such as attempted murder, intimidation, and conspiracy to murder are under investigation. The situation in other provinces is basically no different.
Embracing the standard Marxist dualism between "oppressors" and the "oppressed," the ANC implements draconian racist restrictions on the "colonialist" white race group (to a lesser degree on Indian and mixed-race communities), effectively prohibiting them from entering the public-sector tender-driven economy on an equal footing.
In the private sector, ANC racial requirements, at all levels, compromise traditional capitalism and freedom of trade, going so far as to subject private real estate agents to calamitous racial standards.
In November 2023, short-sighted regulations were promulgated by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (a misnomer), allowing permits for the export of agricultural products (a mainstay of the economy) issued only to those entities complying with drastic racially-defined requirements under Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) rules. Here, the ANC in its pursuit of total control of all facets of the economy further reveal their statist ideology in seeking a nuanced neo-Marxian utopia.
The inept ANC cannot manage its own party finances, even though it is the largest political party in a somewhat sophisticated African country. During the first week of December 2023, the High Court Sheriff served a Warrant of Attachment and Execution on ANC headquarters, Luthuli House, as a result of an unpaid civil debt amounting to millions of rands. In the process, the ANC's bank accounts and assets were seized. This is not their first financial crisis: ANC employees have frequently gone without wages due to cash flow issues.
The ANC's brutal racist intervention in South Africa's economy, adversely affecting the social life of citizens, suggest a form of "revenge Apartheid." Notwithstanding that Apartheid ended in 1994 with the election of Nelson Mandela as president, in the ensuing 30 years the country has become more racist than ever. Whites born after 1994 who knew nothing of Apartheid are discriminated against as they struggle, irrespective of merit, to obtain access to certain educational institutes, such as medical schools. Whites are prejudiced against both in the public sector and private sector economies – the latter due to demographic racial requirements newly imposed on large corporates.
Irrespective of enticements and preferential US and European trade conditions (such as AGOA – the African Growth and Opportunity Act), and with billions of dollars in annual financial benefits through USAID and others, southern African countries do not support the West when it counts. At the United Nations, for instance, they vote against (or abstain from) condemnation of Russia for the Ukraine invasion.
Instead, in early 2023, South Africa conducted joint military exercises with Russia and China and, according to the US Embassy, allegedly supplied a sanctioned Russian warship with matériel, presumably for the Ukrainian war. In late April 2024, giant Russian cargo-aircraft collected military goods in South Africa ostensibly for delivery to defence force troops stationed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Predictably, the ANC strongly supports the terrorist movement Hamas, despite atrocities its Einsatzgruppen perpetrated on innocent civilians in Israel, that fateful day in October 2023. Hamas operates offices in Cape Town, unofficially sanctioned by the ANC, but to the disgust of many South Africans, including the main opposition Democratic Alliance party. On December 5, Hamas officials attended a memorial for Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The officials included Basem Naim, erstwhile Gazan Health Minister, and Khaled Qaddoumi, Hamas envoy to Iran.
To support the jihadist agenda, a recent report indicated that South African religious Muslim students flew to Syria carrying suitcases full of cash donated to Islamist terrorists. On May 10, 2024, the South African government, led by Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, hosted the inaugural "Global Anti-Apartheid Conference on Palestine" aimed at gathering all anti-Israel activists, both state and non-state actors. The given agenda was to create a "global movement to dismantle Israel's settler colonialism and apartheid."
Here, too, the ANC emulates Putin's stance on Israel, while ignoring Hamas's slaughter of innocents. In early November 2023, the editor of the South African Jewish Report wrote that South African's Foreign Minister "congratulated Hamas on the success of their operation." He adds the minister's view accords with the "ANC line which supports Russia, Venezuela, Iran and Cuba." In same perverse mode, an ANC spokesman declared "the decision by Palestinians to respond to the brutality of the settler Israeli apartheid regime is unsurprising."
To further publicise South African political support for revolutionary jihadists supported by Iran, on March 25, 2024, the progressive University of Cape Town hosted a Zoom conference with Hezbollah and Hamas, which have never been designated in South Africa as terrorist organizations.
Iran and the ANC also enjoy a close relationship, and few doubt that Iran's funding enables the ANC to pursue their ani-West agenda.
The ANC has historic alliances with Palestinians, initially through Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). They confirmed their allegiance to Hamas when downgrading their Tel Aviv Embassy to a liaison office and voting to shutter Israel's Embassy in South Africa. The ANC recalled their Ambassador in 2018, indicating their future stance on Israel some six years back. In November 2023, the ANC indicated its intention to rename Johannesburg's most prominent street, Sandton Drive, after noted Palestinian activist and airplane hijacker Leila Khaled. Later in 2023, the ANC, on behalf of the South African government, brought charges of genocide against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This case seems to be another fatuous endeavour by the ANC for prominence and one which has generated much criticism not only from Israel but also the US, the UK and Germany. Many feel that the ANC is an embarrassment to South Africa.
The Chief Rabbi of South Africa, Warren Goldstein, spoke for many South Africans on the Israel-Hamas conflict when he explained that the ANC has effectively "turned its back on Western values, and expressed its support for countries and organisations that subscribe to terror as a measure and method of governance."Once in power, liberation movements rarely appear capable of transforming into successful democratic governments. Revolutionaries seem never to change their fundamental ideology: they seek power above all else. Craving respect as international power brokers, the maladroit ANC elite make seemingly irrelevant peace trips to Russia, Ukraine and elsewhere, while demanding an urgent BRICS head-of-state meeting on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The explanation for ANC mismanagement of South African life can be demonstrated by the typical anarchist mode of res delenda est – everything Western, regarded as colonialist or imperialist, must be destroyed and recreated according to atheist, socialist, dogma (the ANC's ideological ideal), in pursuit of a revolutionary version of pseudo-egalitarian social justice.
The historic ties of some African countries to the totalitarian countries of Russia, Cuba, and China and to revolutionary movements such as Hamas are as strong as ever. Through BRICS and other forums aligned with anti-Western actors, these African countries oppose the West with impunity and reject any pretence of joining the West's sphere of nations with their liberal democratic traditions.
Anglo-American nations blissfully ignore Africa's strong connection to despotic regimes and persist in their simplistic approach towards these countries by showering them with financial incentives and arranging unproductive conferences such as annual meetings of the US and African Union Commission (AUC) in Washington, DC. African countries gladly accept the offered funds while remaining aligned to totalitarian regimes. Financial enticements by the West for the purposes of gaining favour are made in vain: these leaders remain, at their core, Marxist revolutionaries imposing extreme socialist policies on their populace, unfortunately leading to the demise of hitherto prosperous and productive economies.
Until a positive regime change occurs, no improvement in the lives of the average citizen can be expected. The people get poorer by the day. The 2021 mass uprising by the populace in South Africa revealed justified anger with the current political and economic situation, the unacceptably high unemployment rate, and the absence of hope for the future. The dim prospects of the poor, which led to the protest and resulted in millions of dollars in damage to the economy, have not improved. There is therefore every reason to expect another uprising in the not too distant future. Such unrest will no doubt be exploited by an ANC kleptocracy for the further entrenchment of their regime. They, as other leaders, have little inclination to relinquish power. In the meantime, these countries continue to strengthen their ties to Russia, Cuba, and China. Realistic hope turns to despair for southern Africa's political and economic future, particularly South Africa, which is fast approaching a failed state. A 2023 Harvard Kennedy Business School study describes the cause as "collapsing state capacity and spatial exclusion" -- which translates as state inefficiency and the exclusion of whites from certain aspects of the economy. The same can be said of Zimbabwe (very much a failed state), Namibia, and others. It was Lord Acton who pointed out in 1834, "false principles cannot serve as a basis for reconstruction of civil society." Consequently, skilled workers continue to depart the country in droves. This is the complex world of southern African politics, whose leaders present lip service to the Western ideals of democracy while accepting generous global hand-outs – usually offered, unfortunately, with no demands for accountability. Nils A. Haug is an author and essayist. A Lawyer by profession, he is member of the International Bar Association, the National Association of Scholars and Academy of Philosophy and Letters. Retired from law, his particular field of interest is the intersection of Western culture with political theory, philosophy, theology, ethics and law. He holds various degrees including M.A. (cum laude) in Biblical Studies and Ph.D. in Theology (Apologetics). Dr. Haug is author of 'Politics, Law, and Disorder in the Garden of Eden – the Quest for Identity'; and 'Enemies of the Innocent – Life, Truth, and Meaning in a Dark Age.' His eschatological study, 'Towards the Eternal City,' will be released 2025, published by Academica Press, Washington – London. His work has appeared in Quadrant, First Things Journal, The American Mind, Gatestone Institute, Minding the Campus, the National Association of Scholars, Jewish News Syndicate, Israel Hayom, and others.
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Beyond The Presidential Vacuum!
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/23 May 2024
Lebanon, which just marked its centenary, has fallen victim to hegemonic aspirations. As a result, its presidential seat has been vacated for periods after the end of every term since President Emile Lahoud's tenure ended 16 years ago. The country was thus deprived of the optimistic atmosphere that follows the election of a new president by its national imbalance of power, which is a consequence of civil war. This imbalance was then exacerbated and entrenched by the presence of Syrian forces and the betrayal of the 2005 "Independence Uprising.”
Since Lahoud's term ended in 2008, the presidential seat has been vacant for a total of five years, and caretaker governments (like its current government, which has been in power since its most recent parliamentary elections two years ago) with limited authority have been in “power” for over six years.
Further underlining this state of affairs, seats of high office have been vacant for periods since Elias Hrawi came to power in the early 1990s following the Taif Agreement. The problem aggravated with Lahoud’s presidency, reaching new heights with the presidencies of Michel Sleiman and Michel Aoun. These vacancies are intended to marginalize the presidency and undermine its role. It all began with the coup against the Taif Agreement and the constitution, with the rise of the "Troika" (three heads of state instead of one president) and was perpetuated when each of the three was given a "specialty.”
During this downward spiral, the political class was comforted by the rise of a sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime that affords leaders (leading financial and militia figures of the civil war), in the name of their sects, particular roles and shares of the nation's wealth and state institutions!
It can be said, without the slightest exaggeration, spoils-sharing defines every facet and seat of power in the state: ministers, director-generals, heads of departments, the army leaders, and heads of security apparatuses. This system grants each faction the "right" to choose the person who holds the seat allocated to their sect, even in the judiciary and education, and especially in the national university and other institutions. All the vile appointments that were made have sidelined competent individuals and promoted sycophants. At the first stage, this was greenlighted by a Syrian officer in charge of Lebanon. In the second stage, it was Hezbollah, the strongest of the sectarian-militant armed factions, that gave the green light. Its role was solidified after Rafik Hariri's campaign to legitimize its "resistance" after the criminal Grapes of Wrath war.
The militia-ization of the country’s authorities took precedence over everything else. The state was thus hollowed out of its merit and talent. The republic, with its symbols and values, is now on the verge of extinction. Its authority has been limited to giving up medals, quid pro quos transactions, and trading in dubious naturalization decrees intended to fund a clique among the factions that have their hands on the spoils.
For these reasons, the election of presidents never inspired hope among the Lebanese that a normal state could be built, one of the institutions that are subject to the constitution and apply the law consistently. Consequently, when parliamentary circles tie the proper functioning of institutions to the election of the president, they seem to be in a state of deep denial. They ignore reality and the shifting lines of influence among the sectarian factions when they tell the people that they will accept nothing less than an honest, reformist, independent, and sovereignist president!
A few days ago, on May 15, the parliament convened to discuss the complex issue of Syrian displacement, which has been exploited by populist and racist fanfare. It issued “surplus to requirements” recommendations that neither bind the government to do anything nor address the most serious challenge facing Lebanon. It is striking that halfway through this parliament’s term, no party has felt compelled to present a summary of its achievements to voters. Lebanon has turned into a camp and a ticking time bomb, but no questions are being asked. Its financial, economic, and social collapse has deepened, and no reforms to chart a path towards recovering citizens’ bank deposits have been taken. Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has tied their retrieval to the seizure of state assets. There has been no step to restructure the banks or implement any of the reforms agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund. Instead, the "law of impunity" has been fortified. The judiciary is being manipulated to prevent holding those responsible for the port explosion to account or the interrogation of anyone who had taken part in looting the state. Riad Salameh, the keeper of the secrets of the financial collapse, has not been apprehended although international arrest warrants (for embezzlement, money laundering, and bribery) were issued against him a year ago!
Despite the inclusion of a few independent or "reformist" deputies, this parliament will finish where its predecessors left off. Its greatest achievement is to rubber-stamp a deal decided outside its halls. With a state whose decisions are hijacked under the nose of a regime incapable of curbing a plan to turn the country into a frontline in Iran’s project, putting our hopes on parliament has become an outdated and untenable narrative. By failing to realistically assess these shifts and search for out-of-the-box approaches to counter the claims of the resistance, it will continue to operate as though it has achieved victory, asserting that what was impossible before October 7, 2023, has become definitively so afterward. Thus, it is no small matter that foreign initiatives and the activities of the "Quintet" avoid addressing the dominance of the statelet over the state, waiting for regional changes. Accordingly, meetings are held to kill time, which is grinding the Lebanese down, and only temporary solutions are discussed and circulated!