Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 17-18/2024
The May 17, 1983, agreement between Lebanon and Israel was a fair opportunity for peace that Lebanon lost/With the Agreement text/Elias Bejjani/May 17/2024
The 17th May Israeli-Lebanese Agreement/Hussain Abdullah Hussien/Face Book/17 May/2024
Senior Hezbollah official killed after group claims missile-firing UAV attack
Hezbollah fighter, two children killed in Israeli strikes near Sidon
Hezbollah retaliates to Najjarieh strikes with rocket barrage
Safieddine warns Israel 'Hezbollah ready to use new weapons'
8 EU states recommend boosting support for Lebanon to mitigate refugee flow
Hezbollah introduces new weapons and tactics against Israel
Jumblat: Hezbollah defending Lebanon, 1701 can be revived
Sami Gemayel: Hezbollah using refugee crisis to pressure West on Syria
On LBCI, Samy Gemayel criticizes parliament session, emphasizes Hezbollah's role in displacement crisis - Interview highlights
Children among dead as Israeli forces widen attacks on Hezbollah
Hezbollah introduces new weapons and tactics against Israel as war in Gaza drags on
8 EU members say conditions in Syria should be reassessed to allow voluntary refugee returns
Tourism initiative: How Douma became a model town in economy and development
Bassil: Douma and Batroun represent the vision of Lebanon we strive to build and believe in
Achkar: Unregulated growth of the Airbnb sector poses an imminent threat to the hotel industry
Statistics of growing existential threats: Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon
Hamas Military Official Killed in Israeli Attack in East Lebanon
The 2025 Budget: Further Taxation for Lebanese People!

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 17-18/2024
Israeli military finds bodies of 3 hostages in Gaza, including Shani Louk, killed at music festival
Israel responds to genocide charges at UN court
Internal government dispute: Israeli security document recommends ending Gaza war
US House votes against pausing arms to Israel
Fierce fighting in northern Gaza as Israel defends itself at World Court
US military says first aid shipment has been driven across a newly built US pier into the Gaza Strip
What to know about how much the aid from a US pier project will help Gaza
Rafah hospital braces for casualty influx as Israel readies Gaza push
Israel tells World Court South Africa case makes a mockery of genocide
Police shoot dead armed attacker who started fire in Rouen synagogue
Russia says US 'playing with fire' in 'indirect war' with Moscow
Turkey's Erdogan pardons elderly generals imprisoned over 1997 'postmodern coup'
UN rights chief warns of catastrophe in Sudan's al-Fashir
Protests against powerful group persist in Syria's last major rebel stronghold
Houthis say they downed US MQ-9 drone over Yemen’s Maareb
Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Security Council announces arrest of top aide of former Daesh leader
UK imposes sanctions over Russia-North Korea ‘arms-for-oil’ trade

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 17-18/2024
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations/Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/May 17/2024
A Year of Arab Engagement with Assad Has Failed/Andrew J. Tabler/The Washington Institute/May 17/ 2024
Why the Palestinian Authority Should Not Return to Gaza/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./May 17, 2024
Cairo’s double game in Gaza/Haisam Hassanein/ Washington Examiner/May 17/2024
A military expert on why the US view on Israel’s fight against Hamas is a turning point for the world/Hilary Krieger, CNN/May 17, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 17-18/2024
The May 17, 1983, agreement between Lebanon and Israel was a fair opportunity for peace that Lebanon lost/With the Agreement text
Elias Bejjani/May 17/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/118293/118293/
Today, Lebanon remembers the May 17 peace agreement that was signed by the Lebanese and Israeli states on May 17, 1983, during the reign of President Amin Gemayel, and Prime Minister Shafiq Al-Wazzan, after through and arduous negotiations, through which the skilled Lebanese negotiators managed to succeed par excellence in consolidating and preserving all the elements of sovereignty and rights. And most importantly securing complete unconditional, peaceful withdrawal of the Israeli army from all Lebanese territories.
The agreement was supported by the majority of the Lebanese people, the Presidency of the Republic, the Council of Ministers, and the parliament. It was also welcomed by most Arab countries, and all countries of the free world. It was indeed a great and irreplaceable opportunity to establish true peace in the Middle East region in general, and between Lebanon and Israel in particular.
However, through its Local cancerous influence on armed Lebanese groups, mercenaries, merchants of the false resistance, leftists and fundamentalists, the Syrian Baathist regime thwarted the agreement and forcibly prevented its implementation. The Syrian regime did not want Lebanon to have peace with Israel in a bid to maintain its barbaric occupation and hegemony. The Syrian Baathist regime, as well as the current Iranian occupier continue striving to keep Lebanon an open arena for absurd wars, a mailbox for their fiery terrorist messages, and a negotiating and bargaining chip. Syria and Iran falsely claim to be anti - Israel, and use this camouflaging and deceiving tag as an excuse to freely oppress their people and remain in power.
The May 17 agreement, was and still is a need, because the Lebanese want peace, stability and prosperity for their country, just as the Egypt, Jordan, Sudan Morocco, and the majority of the Arabian Gulf states did through peace agreements with Israel. However the Baathist Syria and Iranian mullahs' regimes, along with all merchants of the resistance, the Leftist and fundamentalists, thwarted the May 17 agreement by force, and they are still continuing to impose the same dirty plot on Lebanon and the Lebanese, but with different faces and under new malicious titles.
Certainly, Lebanon will not obtain from Israel at any time, and under any circumstances a peace agreement with better terms and conditions than the May 17 agreement one, therefore all those mercenary mouthpieces who attack the agreement must shut up and swallow their sharp tongues that are only fluent in a wooden language and in all arts of lies, hypocrisy, blasphemy, fabrication, and transgression against others... at the forefront of those are Iran, Hezbollah and their Lebanese mercenaries.
Yes, Lebanon has the right, legally and nationally, for striving to preserve its interests, security, sovereignty and independence, and that was exactly the main goal of the May 17 agreement, which unfortunately was thwarted by the Syrian regime, the resistance merchants and terrorists.
In conclusion, All Patriotic Lebanese leaders are required to put an end to their hypocrisy, trading with the blood and the livelihood the Lebanese, and work hard to serve both their people and country through forging real peace with all countries, including the state of Israel, as the majority of Arab countries did. And YES,The Lebanese have the right to enjoy peace and tranquility in a state that resembles them, and does not resemble the axis of evil, Syrian and Iranian regimes.

The 17th May Israeli-Lebanese Agreement
Hussain Abdullah Hussien/Face Book/17 May/2024
Today, 41 years ago, Lebanon signed a peace treaty with Israel that was ratified in Lebanese parliament but not signed by the wily Lebanese president, Amin Gemayel, under pressure from Syria's tyrant Hafez Assad, whose troops were occupying Lebanon. Had the treaty stuck, Lebanon's economy today would have been next to Singapore's. Instead, Lebanon has no electricity, water, or law enforcement. It is ruled by a cleric who pledges allegiance to Islamist Iran. Its population is shrinking.

Senior Hezbollah official killed after group claims missile-firing UAV attack
The Israel Air Force responded with strikes near Sidon, Lebanon.
By JOANIE MARGULIES, SAM HALPERN/Jerusalem Post/MAY 17, 2024
A senior official in the terrorist organization Hezbollah was killed in a retaliatory strike by the IAF, Arab media sources reported on Friday. The strike came after the Lebanon-based terror group claimed to use a new missile-launching drone to attack Israel Thursday night.According to Hezbollah, during the attack, the UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) flew towards an IDF base near Metulla and targeted IDF soldiers. Hezbollah published a video it said showed the attack, wherein a UAV launched two S5 missiles. Hezbollah stated that the drone had been launched in a suicide attack and, after firing off the missiles, immediately exploded.
Israel responds by striking deep into Lebanon
The IAF launched airstrikes on the village of A-Najaria near Sidon, Lebanon. The target was reportedly only tens of kilometers away from the Israel-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah, citing a medical source, stated that one had been killed and two others were wounded. Arab media sources reported that the individual killed was a senior Hezbollah official. The Egyptian news website Sada El-Balad, citing local reports, stated that the eliminated Hezbollah official was Hussein Khader Mahdi. Mahdi was reportedly in a vehicle at the time of the strike.
Earlier Hezbollah attacks on Israel
In one of Hezbollah's attacks on the North on Friday, one soldier was seriously wounded, and two others were lightly wounded, the military confirmed. The IDF later confirmed that a base near the Golani junction in the Lower Galilee was hit after 50 of 60 launched missiles crossed into Israeli territory. The majority of other missiles landed in open areas.

Hezbollah fighter, two children killed in Israeli strikes near Sidon
Naharnet/17 May/2024
Israeli air strikes on Friday hit an area of southern Lebanon far from the border, with Hezbollah announcing one dead fighter and official media saying two Syrian children were killed. The National News Agency said "Israeli strikes targeted Najjariyeh and Addousiyeh", two adjacent villages about 30 kilometres from the Israeli border just south of the coastal city of Sidon. The Israeli military said in a statement that its air force "struck terrorist infrastructure" where Hezbollah fighters operated in the Najjariyeh area. The "infrastructure contained several compounds used by Hezbollah's aerial defense array and posed a threat to Israeli aircraft", it added. Hezbollah announced a fighter from Najjariyeh had died. The NNA said two Syrian children were killed in the Najjariyeh strike, identifying them as Osama and Hani al-Khaled. An AFP photographer saw ambulances heading to the targeted sites, saying the strikes hit a pickup truck in Najjariyeh and an orchard. The Israeli army statement said that "Hezbollah's aerial defense array deliberately operates from within civilian areas, thus endangering the lives of civilians in southern Lebanon". Hezbollah -- which has intensified its cross-border attacks in recent days, prompting Israeli strikes deeper into Lebanese territory -- announced Friday it had launched "attack drones" on Israeli military positions. The group said it has carried out an aerial attack with multiple suicide drones on a newly artillery established command center in Ga'aton, inflicting casualties among soldiers. It said the attack was in response to an Israeli strike on a car in Qana on Thursday.The strike killed two Hezbollah members. Israel and Hamas ally Hezbollah have exchanged near-daily fire since the Palestinian group's October 7 attack on southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza, now in its eighth month.
On Thursday, Hezbollah launched 13 attacks on northern Israel, targeting military positions and equipment, including with an "attack drone carrying two S5 rockets" that targeted a vehicle at a position in Metula. The Metula attack is the first successful missile airstrike Hezbollah has launched from within Israeli airspace. The attack wounded three soldiers, one of them seriously, according to the Israeli military. The group has stepped up its attacks on Israel in recent weeks, particularly since the Israeli incursion into the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. It has struck deeper inside Israel and introduced new and more advanced weaponry. The cross-border fighting has killed at least 418 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including 80 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 14 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed on its side of the border. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced in areas on both sides of the border.

Hezbollah retaliates to Najjarieh strikes with rocket barrage
Naharnet/17 May/2024
Hezbollah targeted Friday a logistic military base in the occupied Golan heights with 50 Katyusha rockets, in response to al-Najjariyeh strikes. The group said in a statement it has attacked the Tznobar base in response to the killing of two civilians in a strike on al-Najjarieh, near the coastal city of Sidon. Hezbollah later targeted al-Raheb post in northern Israel in support of Gaza and artillery positions in al-Zaoura in response to Israeli artillery shelling on the border town of Houla. The Israeli air strikes on al-Najjariyeh killed one Hezbollah fighter and two Syrian children.
Hezbollah earlier on Friday launched "attack drones" on a command center in Ga'aton, in response to an Israeli strike on a car in Qana on Thursday that killed two Hezbollah members. Earlier this week Hezbollah said it had targeted an Israeli base near Tiberias, about 30 kilometres from the Lebanese border -- one of the group's deepest attacks into Israeli territory since clashes began on October 8. The cross-border fighting has killed at least 418 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including 82 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 14 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed on its side of the border.

Safieddine warns Israel 'Hezbollah ready to use new weapons'
Naharnet/17 May/2024
Head of Hezbollah's executive council, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, warned Israel on Friday that Hezbollah is ready to use new weapons in the battlefield. Hezbollah has regularly fired missiles across the border with Israel over the past seven months, but has on Thursday launched its first successful missile airstrike from within Israeli airspace, using a drone that fired two missiles. The attack wounded three soldiers, one of them seriously, according to the Israeli military. The group has stepped up its attacks on Israel in recent weeks, particularly since the Israeli incursion into the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. It has struck deeper inside Israel and introduced new and more advanced weaponry. "The resistance on the southern border has proven that it has many options in the battlefield," Safieddine said. Also this week, Hezbollah launched three anti-tank guided missiles at an Israeli military post that controlled a surveillance balloon flying over the border. They released camera footage afterward to show they had hit their mark. Hours later, the Israeli military confirmed that the spy balloon had been shot down over Lebanon. "We have multiple options that are guaranteed to succeed and to exhaust the enemy," Safieddine said. "If the enemy wants to continue the fight, we are ready to use new weapons," he added. Hezbollah's use of more advanced weaponry, including drones capable of firing missiles, explosive drones and the small type of guided missile known as Almas, or Diamond, that was used to attack the base controlling the balloon has raised alarms within the Israeli military. "This is a time of major changes," Safieddine said. "What is happening in Gaza, on the (southern) border, and in the region undoubtedly carries great implications." "It shows the fragility and apparent confusion of the Israeli enemy," he added.

8 EU states recommend boosting support for Lebanon to mitigate refugee flow
Associated Press/17 May/2024
The governments of eight European Union member states said Friday the situation in Syria should be re-evaluated to allow for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees back to their homeland. In a joint declaration, officials from Austria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Italy, Malta and Poland said they agree on a re-assessment that would lead to "more effective ways of handling" Syrian refugees trying to reach European Union countries. The eight countries, which held talks during a summit meeting in the Cypriot capital, said the situation in Syria has "considerably evolved," even though complete political stability hasn't been achieved. Cyprus has in recent months seen an upsurge of Syrian refugees reaching the island nation primarily from Lebanon aboard rickety boats. Earlier this month, the EU announced a 1 billion euro ($1.06 billion) aid package for Lebanon aimed at boosting border controls to halt the flow of asylum seekers and migrants to Cyprus and Italy. The eight countries said the EU should further boost support for Lebanon to "mitigate the risk of even greater flows from Lebanon to the EU." "Decisions as to who has the right to cross a member state's borders, should be taken by the government of the relevant member state and not by criminal networks engaged in migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings," the joint declaration said. A Cypriot official said that any re-evaluation of conditions within Syria would not necessarily mean that Syrian refugees would be deported back to their country. Instead, Syrian refugees hailing from areas re-designated as safe would lose any allowances, benefits and the right to work, creating a disincentive to others to come to Cyprus. The official was speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn't allowed to speak publicly about details of the proposal. The countries said that while they "fully embrace" the need to support Syrian refugees in line with international law, they hoped their talks could open a wider debate within the 27-member bloc on the process of granting the migrants international protection. In Lebanon, where anti-refugee sentiment has been surging recently, more than 300 Syrian refugees returned to Syria in a convoy earlier this week. Lebanese officials have long urged the international community to either resettle the refugees in other countries or help them return to Syria.

Hezbollah introduces new weapons and tactics against Israel
Associated Press/17 May/2024
Hezbollah this week struck a military post in northern Israel using a drone that fired two missiles. The attack wounded three soldiers, one of them seriously, according to the Israeli military. Hezbollah has regularly fired missiles across the border with Israel over the past seven months, but the one on Thursday appears to have been the first successful missile airstrike it has launched from within Israeli airspace. The group has stepped up its attacks on Israel in recent weeks, particularly since the Israeli incursion into the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. It has struck deeper inside Israel and introduced new and more advanced weaponry. "This is a method of sending messages on the ground to the Israeli enemy, meaning that this is part of what we have, and if needed we can strike more," said Lebanese political analyst Faisal Abdul-Sater who closely follows Hezbollah. While the cross-border exchanges of fire have been ongoing since early October, "complex attacks" by Hezbollah began a few days after Iran's unprecedented drone and missile barrage attack on Israel in mid-April. In the past two weeks, Hezbollah has escalated further in response to the Israeli incursion into the city of southern Rafah in the Gaza Strip, a Lebanese official familiar with the group's operations said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to detail military information to the media. The Thursday afternoon attack by a drone carrying missiles came just days after Hezbollah launched three anti-tank guided missiles at an Israeli military post that controlled a surveillance balloon flying over the border. They released camera footage afterward to show they had hit their mark. Hours later, the Israeli military confirmed that the spy balloon had been shot down over Lebanon. The night before, Hezbollah had carried out its deepest attack in Israel to date using explosive drones to strike at a base in Ilaniya near the city of Tiberias about 35 kilometers from the border. The Israeli military said the attack did not hurt anyone.
Abdul-Sater, the analyst, said the Iran-led coalition known as the axis of resistance, which includes the Palestinian militant group Hamas, has warned that if Israeli troops launch a full-scale invasion of Rafah in an attempt to go after Hamas, other fronts will also escalate. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed Wednesday that they attacked a U.S. destroyer while Iran-backed militants in Iraq have said they fired a series of drones toward Israel in recent weeks after having gone relatively quiet since February. Hezbollah's use of more advanced weaponry, including drones capable of firing missiles, explosive drones and the small type of guided missile known as Almas, or Diamond, that was used to attack the base controlling the balloon has raised alarms within the Israeli military. "Hezbollah has been escalating the situation in the north," said military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani. "They've been firing more and more."
In adapting its attacks, Hezbollah has also managed to reduce the numbers of fighters lost compared with the early weeks of the conflict.
The group has lost more than 250 fighters so far, compared with 15 Israeli troops since fighting broke out along the Lebanon-Israel border a day after the Israel-Hamas war started on Oct. 7. According to a count by The Associated Press, Hezbollah lost 47 fighters in October and 35 in November, compared with 20 in April and 12 so far this month. The official familiar with the group's operations said Hezbollah had reduced the numbers of fighters along the border areas to bring down the numbers of casualties. While Hezbollah continues to fire Russian-made anti-tank Kornet missiles from areas close to the border, it has also shifted to firing drones and other types of rockets with heavy war heads — including Almas as well as Falaq and Burkan rockets — from areas several kilometers from the border. Over the weekend, Hezbollah said it had launched a new rocket with a heavy warhead named Jihad Mughniyeh after a senior operative who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on southern Syria in 2015. Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specialized in the Middle East and jihadi groups wrote on the social media platform X that Hezbollah's recent escalation likely has several goals, including raising the ceiling of the group's demands in any future negotiations for a border deal, as well as raising military pressure on Israel's military in light of the preparations for the battle in Rafah.
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed in a speech last week that "we will stand, we will achieve our goals, we will hit Hamas, we will destroy Hezbollah, and we will bring security."On Monday, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah reiterated in a speech that there will be no end to the fighting along the Lebanon-Israel border until Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip come to an end. "The main goal of Lebanon's front is to contribute to the pressure on the enemy to end the war on Gaza," Nasrallah said. His comments were a blow to attempts by foreign dignitaries, including U.S. and French officials, who have visited Beirut to try to put an end to the violence that has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border. A day after Nasrallah spoke, Canada's Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly visited Beirut and told Lebanon's private LBC TV station that she was pushing for a cease-fire. "We need the people living in the south of Lebanon to be able to go back to their homes," she said. "We need to make sure that the Israelis living in the northern part of Israel are able to get back to their homes also."Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem warned Israel in a speech over the weekend against opening an all-out war. "You have tried in the past and you were defeated and if you try again you will be defeated," said Kassim, referring to the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah 34-day war that ended in a draw.

Jumblat: Hezbollah defending Lebanon, 1701 can be revived
Naharnet/17 May/2024
Former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has noted that “Hezbollah is defending Lebanon,” while describing Israel as “Lebanon’s historic enemy.”“When the war started in the south, I said that we should not get involved or that Hezbollah should not get implicated in the war, but the war started,” Jumblat said in an interview with the BBC. “Hezbollah is defending Lebanon. We always forget that there is a historic enemy for Lebanon that had violated the south numerous times between the 1950s and the 1960s,” the Druze leader added. He however said that U.N. Security Resolution 1701 “has not died and can be revived,” on the condition that there be “parallel arrangements on both sides of the border and a grounding of the drones and warplanes that are bombing the south and assassinating its people.”

Sami Gemayel: Hezbollah using refugee crisis to pressure West on Syria
Naharnet/17 May/2024
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel has accused Hezbollah of wanting to keep the Syrian refugee crisis unresolved in order to “pressure Europe and the West to free Syria of its isolation.”“It is pressuring Lebanon to normalize relations with Syria and it is using Lebanon, the Lebanese people and the Syrian people present in Lebanon as a pressure card,” Gemayel added in a TV interview. “It would be enough to implement the law in order to resolve the problem of the Syrians, but the prime minister is prohibited from enforcing it,” the Kataeb leader charged.

On LBCI, Samy Gemayel criticizes parliament session, emphasizes Hezbollah's role in displacement crisis - Interview highlights
LBCI/17 May/2024
On LBCI, Samy Gemayel criticizes parliament session, emphasizes Hezbollah's role in displacement crisis - Interview highlights Leader of the Kataeb Party, MP Samy Gemayel, said that the recent Parliament session and its resulting recommendations were essentially meaningless. He stated that their attendance was aimed at shedding light on the true nature of the problem. Gemayel emphasized that Hezbollah's actions are hindering all proposed solutions to the displacement crisis, with the intent of pressuring the lifting of the siege on Bashar al-Assad. He added, ''The solutions to the Syrian displacement crisis are evident through law enforcement, a prerogative forbidden to the Prime Minister.''On LBCI's "Jadal" talk show, the MP mentioned: ''Having a president for the republic is key to the functioning of all institutions, and there is an agreement for matters to be managed by Berri and Mikati without a president, which violates the constitution and is politically motivated.''"We didn't attend the meeting to draft the recommendations discussed in yesterday's parliamentary session because we weren't invited. It seems that decisions are being made for all Lebanese people without our understanding or involvement," Gemayel said. Statistics of growing existential threats: Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanonز He further added ''Bashar al-Assad does not want the return of the displaced to their country, and the Lebanese government is complicit with him. Lebanon has the right to repatriate them, and Assad must receive them.''Gemayel explained that Hezbollah exerts control over unauthorized border crossings, yet there lacks the determination to secure the borders with Syria, despite its feasibility and the army's capability to do so.''Our nation and its decision-making processes are under the influence of Hezbollah, necessitating a unified front to confront this reality,'' he said. The MP expressed: ''Any Lebanese commitment to keep the refugees is a major betrayal, and the session dedicated to the European initiative was purely theatrical, and we did not reach any result.''He also mentioned: ''We, along with opposition parties, are ready to provide hundreds of buses to transport illegal Syrian refugees to the Lebanese border.''

Children among dead as Israeli forces widen attacks on Hezbollah
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/May 17, 2024
BEIRUT: Two children from a Syrian refugee family and a Hezbollah fighter were killed when Israeli airstrikes on Friday hit an area of southern Lebanon more than 30 km inside the border. Israeli strikes targeted Najjariyeh and Addousiyeh, adjacent villages south of the coastal city of Sidon, killing the children and a Hezbollah fighter driving a pickup truck. Hezbollah responded to the raids by firing dozens of rockets toward the upper Galilee, western Galilee, the Galilee panhandle, and the Golan.
Israeli media claimed that 140 rockets were fired toward the north of the country.
BACKGROUND
Hezbollah has traded cross-border fire with Israeli forces almost daily since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza, now in its eighth month. Israeli forces and Hezbollah have expanded their hostilities, with both launching drone attacks deep into Lebanese territory and northern Israel. Retired Brig. Gen. Khaled Hamadeh of the Lebanese Army said that the situation in southern Lebanon is “escalating toward more violent attacks.”Hezbollah insists on linking a ceasefire in southern Lebanon to an end to hostilities in Gaza. Hamadeh said that no efforts were being made to stop the clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, unlike the situation in Gaza. In a statement, Hezbollah said it targeted Israel’s Tsnobar logistics base in the Golan with 50 Katyusha rockets in response to the strike on Najjarieh. According to Israeli media, rocket salvos were aimed at military bases in Katzrin and areas north of Lake Tiberias. Two people were injured in rocket blasts in Karam bin Zamra in the upper Galilee, media added. CCTV cameras installed outside homes in Najjarieh showed an Israeli drone following the pickup truck as the driver, named as Hussein Khodor Mehdi, attempted to flee.
The first missile launched by the drone missed its target, but a second that struck the truck, setting it on fire and killing the driver. Three onlookers were also injured. Hezbollah said that Mehdi, 62, was “martyred on the road to Jerusalem.”Israeli Army Radio said the victim was a senior commander in the Hezbollah air force. It claimed that the army planes shelled Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Najjarieh. The second airstrike targeted a congregation hall and a cement factory, wounding several members of a Syrian refugee family. Two children, Osama and Hani Al-Khaled, later died from their injuries. Hezbollah said it targeted the Al-Raheb military site with artillery and Israeli positions in Al-Zaoura with a salvo of Katyusha rockets. According to a security source, Hezbollah’s latest targets included surveillance balloons near Tiberias and Adamit in the Galilee. Early on Friday, Hezbollah attacked the newly established headquarters of the 411th Artillery Battalion in Kibbutz Jaatoun, east of Nahariyya, with drones in response to the Israeli killing of two Hezbollah fighters, Ali Fawzi Ayoub, 26, and Mohammed Hassan Ali Fares, 34, the previous day.
In his Friday sermon, Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek, head of Hezbollah’s Shariah Council, said the group was “waging its fierce war on the north of Palestine, pursuing the enemy, blinding its espionage, and breaking what were once red lines, as well pursuing its soldiers in their hideouts until the war on Gaza stops.” The US Embassy in Lebanon issued a warning over the conflict on the southern border and the presidential vacuum in the country. Electing a president was crucial to ensuring Lebanon’s participation in regional discussions and future diplomatic agreements concerning its southern border, the embassy said.
Lebanon “needs and deserves a president who unites the nation, prioritizes the well-being of its citizens, and forms a broad and inclusive coalition to restore political stability and implement necessary economic reforms,” the statement added.
The ambassadors of Egypt, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the US to Lebanon issued a statement this week warning of “the critical situation facing the Lebanese people and the difficult-to-manage repercussions on Lebanon’s economy and social stability due to the delay of necessary reforms.”

Hezbollah introduces new weapons and tactics against Israel as war in Gaza drags on
BY BASSEM MROUE/BEIRUT (AP)/May 17, 2024
The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah this week struck a military post in northern Israel using a drone that fired two missiles. The attack wounded three soldiers, one of them seriously, according to the Israeli military.
Hezbollah has regularly fired missiles across the border with Israel over the past seven months, but the one on Thursday appears to have been the first successful missile airstrike it has launched from within Israeli airspace.
The group has stepped up its attacks on Israel in recent weeks, particularly since the Israeli incursion into the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. It has struck deeper inside Israel and introduced new and more advanced weaponry.
“This is a method of sending messages on the ground to the Israeli enemy, meaning that this is part of what we have, and if needed we can strike more,” said Lebanese political analyst Faisal Abdul-Sater who closely follows Hezbollah.
While the cross-border exchanges of fire have been ongoing since early October, “complex attacks” by Hezbollah began a few days after Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile barrage attack on Israel in mid-April.
In the past two weeks, Hezbollah has escalated further in response to the Israeli incursion into the city of southern Rafah in the Gaza Strip, a Lebanese official familiar with the group’s operations said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to detail military information to the media.The Thursday afternoon attack by a drone carrying missiles came just days after Hezbollah launched three anti-tank guided missiles at an Israeli military post that controlled a surveillance balloon flying over the border. They released camera footage afterward to show they had hit their mark. Hours later, the Israeli military confirmed that the spy balloon had been shot down over Lebanon.
The night before, Hezbollah had carried out its deepest attack in Israel to date using explosive drones to strike at a base in Ilaniya near the city of Tiberias about 35 kilometers (22 miles) from the Lebanon border. The Israeli military said the attack did not hurt anyone. Abdul-Sater, the analyst, said the Iran-led coalition known as the axis of resistance, which includes the Palestinian militant group Hamas, has warned that if Israeli troops launch a full-scale invasion of Rafah in an attempt to go after Hamas, other fronts will also escalate.
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed Wednesday that they attacked a U.S. destroyer while Iran-backed militants in Iraq have said they fired a series of drones toward Israel in recent weeks after having gone relatively quiet since February.
Hezbollah's use of more advanced weaponry, including drones capable of firing missiles, explosive drones and the small type of guided missile known as Almas, or Diamond, that was used to attack the base controlling the balloon has raised alarms within the Israeli military. “Hezbollah has been escalating the situation in the north,” said military spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani. “They’ve been firing more and more.”
In adapting its attacks, Hezbollah has also managed to reduce the numbers of fighters lost compared with the early weeks of the conflict.
The group has lost more than 250 fighters so far, compared with 15 Israeli troops since fighting broke out along the Lebanon-Israel border a day after the Israel-Hamas war started on Oct. 7. According to a count by The Associated Press, Hezbollah lost 47 fighters in October and 35 in November, compared with 20 in April and 12 so far this month. The official familiar with the group’s operations said Hezbollah had reduced the numbers of fighters along the border areas to bring down the numbers of casualties. While Hezbollah continues to fire Russian-made anti-tank Kornet missiles from areas close to the border, it has also shifted to firing drones and other types of rockets with heavy war heads — including Almas as well as Falaq and Burkan rockets — from areas several kilometers (miles) from the border.
Over the weekend, Hezbollah said it had launched a new rocket with a heavy warhead named Jihad Mughniyeh after a senior operative who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on southern Syria in 2015. Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specialized in the Middle East and jihadi groups wrote on the social media platform X that Hezbollah's recent escalation likely has several goals, including raising the ceiling of the group's demands in any future negotiations for a border deal, as well as raising military pressure on Israel's military in light of the preparations for the battle in Rafah.
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed in a speech last week that “we will stand, we will achieve our goals, we will hit Hamas, we will destroy Hezbollah, and we will bring security.” On Monday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reiterated in a speech that there will be no end to the fighting along the Lebanon-Israel border until Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip come to an end.
“The main goal of Lebanon’s front is to contribute to the pressure on the enemy to end the war on Gaza,” Nasrallah said. His comments were a blow to attempts by foreign dignitaries, including U.S. and French officials, who have visited Beirut t o try to put an end to the violence that has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border. A day after Nasrallah spoke, Canada’s Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly visited Beirut and told Lebanon’s private LBC TV station that she was pushing for a cease-fire. “We need the people living in the south of Lebanon to be able to go back to their homes," she said. "We need to make sure that the Israelis living in the northern part of Israel are able to get back to their homes also.”Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Kassim warned Israel in a speech over the weekend against opening an all-out war.
“You have tried in the past and you were defeated and if you try again you will be defeated,” said Kassim, referring to the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah 34-day war that ended in a draw.

8 EU members say conditions in Syria should be reassessed to allow voluntary refugee returns
MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS/AP/May 17, 2024/NICOSIA, Cyprus
The governments of eight European Union member states said Friday the situation in Syria should be re-evaluated to allow for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees back to their homeland.
In a joint declaration, officials from Austria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Italy, Malta and Poland said they agree on a re-assessment that would lead to “more effective ways of handling” Syrian refugees trying to reach European Union countries. The eight countries, which held talks during a summit meeting in the Cypriot capital, said the situation in Syria has “considerably evolved,” even though complete political stability hasn't been achieved. Cyprus has in recent months seen an upsurge of Syrian refugees reaching the island nation primarily from Lebanon aboard rickety boats. Earlier this month, the EU announced a 1 billion euro ($1.06 billion) aid package for Lebanon aimed at boosting border controls to halt the flow of asylum seekers and migrants to Cyprus and Italy. The eight countries said the EU should further boost support for Lebanon to "mitigate the risk of even greater flows from Lebanon to the EU.” “Decisions as to who has the right to cross a member state’s borders, should be taken by the government of the relevant member state and not by criminal networks engaged in migrant smuggling and trafficking in human beings,” the joint declaration said. The call comes a day afte r 15 EU member countries publicly called for the bloc to boost partnerships with countries along migratory routes in hopes of heading off attempts to reach EU countries. The countries said that while they “fully embrace” the need to support Syrian refugees in line with international law, they hoped their talks could open a wider debate within the 27-member bloc on the process of granting the migrants international protection. “What European citizens want from us ... are solutions, practical, realistic solutions that can be implemented,” said Greek Migration Minister Dimitris Kairidis. Cypriot Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou said the United Nations' refugee agency has already “established lines of communication” with Syrian authorities regarding possible voluntary returns in line with international law. The Cypriot minister said returns would initially be on a voluntary basis, but that could develop into forced returns at a later stage. Much more needs to be done for that to happen because the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad isn't recognized by the EU, he said. In Lebanon, where anti-refugee sentiment has been surging recently, more than 300 Syrian refugees returned to Syria in a convoy earlier this week.
Lebanese officials have long urged the international community to either resettle the refugees in other countries or help them return to Syria.

Tourism initiative: How Douma became a model town in economy and development
LBCI/May 17, 2024
Douma has become a model town in terms of its economy and development, and here are three key reasons why:
1. Essential services
When you arrive in Douma, you will notice the absence of issues such as waste management, water shortages, and electricity problems. This is thanks to effective administration and individual initiatives, such as the 600 solar panels lighting up the town. Douma boasts three schools and various government institutions, providing a sense of self-sufficiency in essential services. Remarkably, the town even has a cinema that is over 70 years old, which was renovated about a decade ago.
2. Local production
The residents of Douma are actively involved in agriculture, particularly in apple cultivation, producing 20,000 boxes annually, and olive oil production, yielding 15,000 tins each year. These products are exported to Arab countries, the United States, and Australia. Additionally, the town is known for its artisanal crafts and food products, such as homemade preserves. Douma's ice cream and Turkish delight have also found international markets.
3. Marketing and tourism
Douma has preserved its heritage and environment while effectively marketing its strengths. Locally, it promotes through activities and festivals, and internationally, it gained recognition by winning the Best Tourism Villages award from the World Tourism Organization. This accolade has spurred a tourism boom, leading to the establishment of guesthouses and increasing hotel rooms to about 200, boosting the local economy from small bakeries to large restaurants. The dedicated efforts of Douma's residents have attracted partnerships and funding, particularly for projects like the restoration of the old market. According to Dr. Asaad Issa, the Mayor of Douma, this initiative will open up 70 shops and increase job opportunities and economic activity in the town. Your village or city can also become a model of economic and developmental success by focusing on three objectives: providing essential services, enhancing local production, and marketing your strengths. The key is to have the initiative and determination. Many areas in Lebanon have proven this by establishing themselves on the tourist map, working towards economic activation, and creating a better, more sustainable future for their environment and residents.

Bassil: Douma and Batroun represent the vision of Lebanon we strive to build and believe in
LBCI/May 17, 2024
Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), stated that "Douma and Batroun represent the vision of Lebanon we strive to build and believe in" during the ceremony announcing Douma as one of the most beautiful tourist villages for 2023.
Bassil emphasized the irreplaceable value of Lebanon in the Middle East, posing a critical question: "What is the worth of the world if the image of Lebanon is defeated, the Lebanese state collapses, and the country becomes a hub for illegal refugees, exporting displacement and extremism?" He underscored the necessity of having a President of the Republic who speaks for all Lebanese, saying, "Lebanon cannot afford to bear the costs of regional conflicts, nor can it remain trapped in a cycle of wars."

Achkar: Unregulated growth of the Airbnb sector poses an imminent threat to the hotel industry
LBCI/May 17, 2024
President of the Lebanese Hotel Federation For Tourism Industries, Pierre Achkar, revealed in a statement that the most serious challenge facing the hotel sector, in addition to the repercussions of the ongoing war in Gaza and the confrontations in southern Lebanon, is a different kind of war represented by the uncontrolled and unregulated growth of the Airbnb sector without any oversight or regulation. He also pointed out that the Airbnb sector has recorded significant growth in recent years, with approximately 10,000 rooms available, ranging from various levels and located in important areas in the capital, Mount Lebanon, and various regions across Lebanon. Achkar warned that, in addition to the difficult circumstances, the unfair and illegitimate competition from the Airbnb sector could cause significant harm to the hotel sector and its employees, as it does not comply with any regulations.
This could result in the closure of a large number of hotel establishments. He emphasized that "the damage is not limited to the hotel sector but also affects the furnished apartment sector and the Lebanese state. He identified three levels of problems arising from the Airbnb sector: "strong and unfair competition due to the non-payment of various taxes and fees, significant loss of revenue for the Lebanese treasury, and potential security breaches since guests are not registered with the Lebanese General Security." Achkar emphasized, "the necessity for the state and all relevant officials to regulate this sector by requiring it to obtain a license from the municipality, secure a tax identification number, and connect with the Lebanese General Security."

Statistics of growing existential threats: Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon
LBCI/May 17, 2024
The Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon is often described as an existential threat, a designation rooted in alarming statistics. With estimates of Syrian refugees ranging between one and two million, and 83% of them lacking legal residency, the numbers are inaccurate. According to Lebanon's Health Ministry, the annual birth rate of Syrians has constituted 40% of the total births in Lebanon from 2012 to 2023. Consequently, it is projected that in 15 years, half of Lebanon's residents will be non-Lebanese, and half of Lebanese nationals will be living abroad, based on a study by the Lebanese Citizen Foundation. Currently, Syrian refugees make up approximately 25% of Lebanon's population, according to a study published by Kulluna Irada. Notably, the majority of these refugees are young: 51.9% of the refugees are under the age of 20, compared to 39.6% of the Lebanese population under 20. Given these figures, it is expected that within 25 years, the young Syrian refugees will dominate the workforce, potentially sidelining young Lebanese workers. The economic advisor to the Prime Minister highlighted an even more concerning aspect: the economic burden of the refugee crisis. This burden is exacerbated by declining international funding for Lebanon's refugee-related expenses. As global crises continue to evolve, international support diminishes, further increasing Lebanon's economic strain. This situation has already led to the complete cessation of aid for hundreds of thousands of Syrians, a trend likely to worsen. As Lebanon looks for sustainable solutions, attention is now focused on the upcoming Brussels conference, where Lebanese authorities hope to secure practical measures to address the crisis, moving beyond political theatrics.

Hamas Military Official Killed in Israeli Attack in East Lebanon
This Is Beirut/This Is Beirut/May 17/2024
A Hamas military official, the Palestinian Charhabil el-Sayyed, was killed in an Israeli strike targeting his car early on Friday evening in the Masnaa-Majdel Anjar region, near the Lebanese-Syrian border in the Bekaa. His companion, also Palestinian, was taken to a hospital where he succumbed to his injuries. In the evening, Israeli raids targeted the village of Houla, where an elderly couple suffocated to death from toxic smoke. In addition, Israeli attacks on Friday morning in the Najjariyé district (Saida caza) left three people dead (including one Lebanese and two Syrians) and several injured. As a result of the multiple strikes on Najjariye, Hussein Khodr Mehdi, a Hezbollah executive, is reported to have lost his life after an airstrike targeted a vehicle. Three Syrians were also injured. The town’s fields were targeted in a second strike, but no injuries were reported, as the missile failed to explode. A third attack was carried out on a stone factory in Najjariye, killing two Syrians, wounding two others and leaving several others missing. The Hebrew state also fired a mortar shell at Hula (Marjayoun), an area near which it had also carried out strikes on Thursday. Israeli raids also hit the villages of Kfar Kila, Deir Syriane, Taybé, Odaisseh and Kfar Hamam. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for several missile attacks on Israeli targets, including a logistics base in the Golan Heights, positions in Zaoura, Raheb, Jal al-Alam, Bayad Blida, Al-Baghdadi and Malkiya, as well as surveillance equipment in the Biranit barracks. On the Israeli side, the Israeli army’s Arabic-speaking spokesman, Avichay Adraee, announced on the Platform X that “around 75 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Israeli territory,” adding that dozens of them had been intercepted. He also stated that the Israeli army had destroyed a rocket launcher belonging to Hezbollah in the Yaroun region.

The 2025 Budget: Further Taxation for Lebanese People!
Nadia Hallak/This Is Beirut/May 17/2024
Caretaker Minister of Finance Youssef Khalil affirmed the Ministry’s commitment to delivering the 2025 budget within its Constitutional deadline. However, this has sparked significant controversy among citizens, particularly as the budget items will primarily rely on imposing additional taxes to cover the Lebanese State’s expenses. This pattern echoes previous budgets, highlighting the state’s “indecency” through steep tax hikes and fines, overlooking any reform measures.
Once again, the government attempts to pass its financial burden onto citizens and the legitimate economy. The caretaker Minister of Finance, Youssef Khalil, reiterated the Ministry’s commitment to delivering the 2025 budget within its Constitutional time. He urged all institutions, bodies, councils and public funds benefiting from financial allocations outlined in the budget to submit their budget projects to the Ministry of Finance by the end of May. These submissions should include comprehensive justifications, statistics and necessary explanations regarding their expenditures and revenues.This announcement has sparked significant controversy among citizens, particularly as the budget items will primarily rely on imposing additional taxes to cover the Lebanese State’s expenses. This echoes previous budgets, which exposed the state’s “indecency” through steep tax hikes and fines, overlooking any reform measures.
Will Lebanese people face more taxes next year?
Economic expert Dr. Talib Saad, speaking to Houna Loubnan, elucidates, “In the private sector, companies usually craft budgets to delineate their future plans, objectives and developmental projects through financial projections covering several upcoming years. They strive to implement requisite adjustments and enhancements to meet their financial goals. The annual budget reflects the company’s operational progress and acts as a tool to facilitate more efficient financial management. On a national scale, each country formulates an annual budget estimate. This entails forecasting figures that represent the anticipated general revenues the state will receive, as well as the general expenses required to fulfill its economic, social and financial objectives during the upcoming fiscal year.”
Unfortunately, in Lebanon, the state rushes to announce the 2025 budget, yet little has changed, rendering it a mere “replica” of the 2024 budget and those before it. Crafting the budget within the current political climate in Lebanon is nothing but “formality.” The government’s primary concern is to demonstrate to international entities that it has completed its tasks constitutionally, officially and formally. Therefore, the budget was crafted without addressing its complete void of national, social and economic value, according to Saad.
“The Ministry of Finance is urging ministries to submit their financial plans and projects. However, as of now, neither the Ministry nor other ministries have concrete plans in place. They only strive to cover expenses and salaries. Budgeting has become a mere means of sustaining the weakened public sector, with little endeavor directed towards presenting a budget aimed at state development, addressing crumbling infrastructure, initiating expansion projects, encouraging investment, or attracting capital, much of which is either held abroad or within banks,” he adds.
Moreover, “as with previous budgets, including those of 2023 and 2024, the primary role was that of tax collection and fee hikes, without fairness or feasibility studies. They relied solely on raising taxes and fees to secure revenue and finance expenses, regardless of the adverse effects on society and purchasing power.”Saad considers “this approach potentially constituting financial crimes, particularly in a country enduring economic crises for years. He notes that these increases come in two forms: directly imposed taxes and indirectly imposed taxes.”
He indicates as well that “paying taxes in dollars has become burdensome for citizens without foreign currency income and those with limited to moderate earnings.”
In essence, the current budget primarily focuses on financing the unproductive public sector and securing its revenue stream, aiming for a “zero” deficit budget with minimal shortfalls. However, in all cases, it represents a regressive financial strategy that will perpetuate the balance of payments deficit and the trade deficit, currently standing at around $14.5 billion, owing to declining exports and increasing imports, particularly in consumer goods rather than productive ones. “The 2025 budget is unlikely to enact any substantial change given the unchanged governmental policies and practices. Today, the government lacks forward-looking financial plans and visions. It will be a continuation of the past three budgets in terms of reliance on tax revenues tied to the dollar, constant funding of the public sector, and absence of reform plans; in addition to the unresolved issue of banking deposits that persists,” Saad asserts. He contends that “regarding the underlying issues within the 2025 budget, akin to its predecessors, the Minister of Finance will be granted unprecedented authority, enabling indirect legislation to facilitate money laundering through certain provisions observed in previous budgets, a pattern expected to persist in the upcoming fiscal year.”He concludes by stating, “The 2025 budget is merely a façade presented to the International Monetary Fund, suggesting that the state seeks reform without any substantive economic plan in place.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 17-18/2024
Israeli military finds bodies of 3 hostages in Gaza, including Shani Louk, killed at music festival
Associated Press/May 17, 2024
Israeli military says its troops in Gaza found the bodies of three Israeli hostages taken by Hamas during its Oct. 7 attack, including German-Israeli Shani Louk.A photo of the 22-year-old Shani’s twisted body in the back of a pickup truck ricocheted around the world and brought to light the scale of the militants’ attack on communities in southern Israel. The military identified the other two bodies found as those of a 28-year-old woman, Amit Buskila, and a56-year-old man, Itzhak Gelerenter. Military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said all three were killed by Hamas at the Nova music festival, an outdoor dance party near the Gaza border, and their bodies taken into the Palestinian territory. The military did not give immediate details on where their bodies were found. Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people, mainly civilians, and abducted around 250 others in the Oct. 7 attack. Around half of those have since been freed, most in swaps for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel during a weeklong cease-fire in November. Israel says around 100 hostages are still captive in Gaza, along with the bodies of around 30 more. Israel's campaign in Gaza since the attack has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.

Israel responds to genocide charges at UN court
Associated Press/May 17, 2024
Israel told the United Nations' top court on Friday that a case brought by South Africa about its military operation in Gaza "makes a mockery of the heinous charge of genocide." The International Court of Justice is holding a third round of hearings on emergency measures requested by South Africa, which wants the court, based in The Hague in the Netherlands, to order a cease-fire in the enclave. The allegations were "completely divorced from the facts and circumstances," Israel's deputy attorney general Gilad Noam told a panel of 15 international judges. South Africa told the court on Thursday that the situation in Gaza has reached "a new and horrific stage" and urged judges to order Israel to halt its military operations. Israel must "totally and unconditionally withdraw" from the Gaza Strip, said Vusimuzi Madonsela, South Africa's ambassador to the Netherlands. Israel has strongly denied committing genocide in Gaza, saying it does all it can to spare civilians and is only targeting Hamas militants."We do not wish harm to these civilians as Hamas does," Noam said, accusing the organization of using human shields. South Africa has submitted four requests for the ICJ to investigate Israel. According to the latest request, the country says Israel's military incursion in Rafah threatens the "very survival of Palestinians in Gaza."In January, judges ordered Israel to do all it can to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza, but the panel stopped short of ordering an end to the military offensive. The court has already found that there is a "real and imminent risk" to the Palestinian people in Gaza by Israel's military operations.ICJ judges have broad powers to order a cease-fire and other measures, though the court doesn't have its own enforcement apparatus. A 2022 order by the court demanding that Russia halt its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has so far gone unheeded. Most of Gaza's population of 2.3 million people have been displaced since fighting began. The war began with a Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7 in which Palestinian militants killed around 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages. More than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, Gaza's Health Ministry says, without distinguishing between civilians and combatants in its count. South Africa initiated proceedings in December 2023 and sees the legal campaign as rooted in issues central to its identity. Its governing party, the African National Congress, has long compared Israel's policies in Gaza and the occupied West Bank to its own history under the apartheid regime of white minority rule, which restricted most Blacks to "homelands." Apartheid ended in 1994.

Internal government dispute: Israeli security document recommends ending Gaza war
LBCI/May 17, 2024
Discord escalation within the Israeli government over the continuation of military control in Gaza intensified with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's exit from the mini-cabinet meeting. Israeli security agencies have issued a special document recommending an end to the war and rejecting continued military control in Gaza, as advocated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition. The security document argues that maintaining military control in Gaza would impose a significant financial and military burden on Israel, ultimately degrading its defensive and offensive capabilities on various fronts.
According to the document:
- The annual cost of Israeli military governance in Gaza is estimated at a minimum of $5.5 billion.
- Israel would need to fund the reconstruction of Gaza's infrastructure, including hospitals and schools, as well as establish infrastructure for military governance.
- Managing the military administration would require 400 positions.
- Deploying five military brigades to Gaza, including four offensive brigades and one defensive brigade, would necessitate reducing forces in the northern and central commands and significantly increasing the size and cost of reserve forces.
The document concludes that Israel would struggle to bear the weight of military governance in Gaza.
Moreover, the army's preparedness for potential northern front escalations would deteriorate as northern hostilities toward Lebanon increasingly dominate the government's agenda.On the ground in Gaza, Israel continues to tally daily casualties among its soldiers, with military officials acknowledging the challenges of the ongoing combat.  However, public opinion in Israel remains divided over the war and its aftermath. Despite growing opposition to the continuation of the war, a recent poll indicates that support for military governance in Gaza has also increased, reaching 40%. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, along with cabinet members Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot, have warned against following Netanyahu and the right-wing coalition into what they consider the nightmare scenario of military rule in Gaza.

US House votes against pausing arms to Israel
Associated Press/May 17, 2024
The House delivered a rebuke to President Joe Biden Thursday for pausing a shipment of bombs to Israel, passing legislation that seeks to force the weapons transfer as Republicans worked to highlight Democratic divisions over the Israel-Hamas war.
Seeking to discourage Israel from its offensive on the crowded southern Gaza city of Rafah, the Biden administration this month put on hold a weapons shipment of 3,500 bombs — some as large as 2,000 pounds — that are capable of killing hundreds in populated areas. Republicans were outraged, accusing Biden of abandoning the closest U.S. ally in the Middle East. Debate over the bill, rushed to the House floor by GOP leadership this week, showed Washington's deeply fractured outlook on the Israel-Hamas war. The White House and Democratic leadership scrambled to rally support from a House caucus that ranges from moderates frustrated that the president would allow any daylight between the U.S. and Israel to progressives outraged that he is still sending any weapons at all. The bill passed comfortably 224-187 as 16 Democrats joined with most Republicans to vote in favor. Three Republicans voted against it. On the right, Republicans said the president had no business chiding Israel for how it uses the U.S.-manufactured weapons that are instrumental in its war against Hamas. They have not been satisfied with the Biden administration moving forward this week on a new $1 billion sale to Israel of tank ammunition, tactical vehicles and mortar rounds. "We're beyond frustrated," Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said. "I don't think we should tell the Israelis how to conduct their military campaign, period." The House bill condemns Biden for initiating the pause on the bomb shipment and would withhold funding for the State Department, Department of Defense and the National Security Council until the delivery is made. The White House has said Biden would veto the bill if it passes Congress, and the Democratic-led Senate seems certain to reject it. "It's not going anywhere," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier this week. Republicans were undeterred. Appearing on the Capitol steps ahead of voting Thursday morning, House Republican leaders argued that passage of the bill in the House would build pressure on Schumer and Biden.
"It is President Biden and Senator Schumer himself who are standing in the way of getting Israel the resources it desperately needs to defend itself," Speaker Mike Johnson said. Biden placed the hold on the transfer of the bombs this month over concerns the weapons could inflict massive casualties in Rafah and to deter Israel from the attack. Over 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed as Israel tries to eliminate Hamas in retaliation for its Oct. 7 attack that killed 1,200 people in Israel and took about 250 more captive. Hundreds of thousands of people could be at risk of death if Israel attacks Rafah, the United Nations humanitarian aid agency has warned, because so many have fled there for safety. The heavy toll of the Israeli campaign has prompted intense protests on the left, including on university campuses nationwide and some aimed directly at Biden. In a rare scene on the Capitol steps Thursday, a group of about two dozen House aides gathered just as lawmakers were entering the chamber to vote and displayed a banner that read, "Your staff demands you save Rafah."At the same time, a group of moderate Democrats in Congress have expressed almost unconditional support for Israel. Roughly two dozen House Democrats last week signed onto a letter to the Biden administration saying they were "deeply concerned about the message" sent by pausing the bomb shipment.
Eager to tamp down the number from Biden's own party who would side with Republicans on the vote, national security adviser Jake Sullivan and deputy national security adviser Jon Finer got on the phone this week with Democratic lawmakers who could possibly defect. Among their arguments, according to an administration official with knowledge of their conversations and granted anonymity to discuss them, was that the legislation would constrain the president's foreign policy powers, particularly his ability to adjust security aid as needed. Sullivan and Finer also noted in these discussions that what Biden did — pausing aid in order to influence Israel's actions — was similar to President Ronald Reagan's decision in 1982 to halt military aid to Israel amid its invasion of Lebanon.
National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the legislation was intended to "score political points, not help Israel.""President Biden will take a back seat to no one on his support for Israel and will ensure that Israel has everything it needs to defeat Hamas," she said. "President Biden is also strongly on the record for the protection of innocent civilians. Most Americans agree on both these points, Israel has a right and obligation to protect themselves, but they must do so while avoiding civilian casualties."House Democratic leadership also worked hard to convince rank-and-file lawmakers to vote against the bill. "The legislation on the floor today is not a serious effort to strengthen the special relationship between the United States and Israel," said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He added that he supported the effort to "decisively" defeat Hamas while also advocating for a goal of "Israel living in safety and security side by side with a demilitarized Palestinian state that allows for dignity and self-determination amongst the Palestinian people."With the general election campaign coming into focus, the speaker has mostly turned to advancing partisan bills, including legislation on immigration, local policing and antisemitism, that are intended to force Democrats into taking difficult votes. "It's being done to score cheap political points," said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a Florida Democrat who signed onto the letter criticizing the pause, but voted against the bill. She added that it would potentially defund U.S. national security programs. As an alternative, Rep. Michael McCaul, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, introduced a separate bill Thursday with some bipartisan backing that would require the president to notify Congress before holding the delivery of defensive weapons to Israel and allow Congress to override the hold. Still, the 16 Democrats who voted for the bill showed a willingness to buck the president. The group consisted of both lawmakers vying for reelection in swing districts and those who are staunch supporters of Israel. "The administration has been wavering so I'm going to vote for the bill when it comes to the floor," Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, said ahead of the vote. Another Democrat who voted for the bill, Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida, said this week he also considered the messages being sent to the Jewish community in the United States. "My community right now is worried," he said. "Things don't happen in a vacuum." Historically, the U.S. has sent enormous amounts of weaponry to Israel, and it has only accelerated those shipments after the Oct. 7 attack. But some progressives are pushing for an end to that relationship as they argue that Israel's campaign into Gaza amounts to genocide — a characterization that the Biden administration has rejected. "My fear is that our government and us as citizens, as taxpayers, we are going to be complicit in genocide," said Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat. "And that goes against everything we value as a nation."

Fierce fighting in northern Gaza as Israel defends itself at World Court
Nidal al-Mughrabi/CAIRO (Reuters)/Fri, May 17, 2024
Israeli forces battled Hamas fighters in the narrow alleyways of Jabalia in northern Gaza on Friday in some of the fiercest engagements since they returned to the area a week ago, while in the south militants attacked tanks massing around Rafah. Residents said Israeli armour had thrust as far as the market at the heart of Jabalia, the largest of Gaza's eight historic refugee camps, and that bulldozers were demolishing homes and shops in the path of the advance. As fighting raged in the north and south of the territory, the U.S. military said trucks carrying humanitarian assistance had started moving ashore from a temporary pier in Gaza on Friday morning. "Israel's focus is Jabalia now, tanks and planes are wiping out residential districts and markets, shops, restaurants, everything. It is all happening before the one-eyed world," said Ayman Rajab, a resident of western Jabalia. "Shame on the world. Meanwhile, the Americans are going to get us some food," Rajab, a father-of-four, told Reuters via a chat app. "We want no food, we want this war to end and then we can manage our lives on our own." Israel had said its forces had cleared Jabilia months earlier in the Gaza war, triggered by the deadly Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on Oct. 7, but said last week it was returning to prevent the Islamist group re-establishing itself there. At the World Court in the Hague, Israel asked judges to throw out a demand from South Africa for an emergency order to halt the assault on Rafah and withdraw Israeli troops from all of Gaza. Despite seven months of near-continuous fighting, armed wings of Hamas and its ally Islamic Jihad have been able to fight up and down the Gaza Strip, using heavily fortified tunnels to stage attacks, highlighting the difficulty of achieving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stated aim of eradicating the militant group.
At least 35,303 Palestinians have now been killed in the war, according to figures from the enclave's health ministry, while aid agencies have warned repeatedly of widespread hunger and the threat of disease. Israel says it must complete its objective of destroying Hamas for its own safety after the deaths of 1,200 people on Oct. 7, and to free the 128 hostages still held out of 253 abducted by the militants, according to its tallies. To achieve that, it says it must capture Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city bordering Egypt, where around half of the territory's 2.3 million people had sought shelter from the fighting further north. Israel's operation against Rafah, which began in early May but has yet to escalate to an all-out assault, has ignited one of the biggest rifts in generations with its main ally, the United States. Washington held up a weapons shipment over fears of civilian casualties.
'TRAGIC WAR'
Israeli tanks and warplanes bombarded parts of Rafah on Friday, while the armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they were firing anti-tank missiles and mortars at forces massing to the east, southeast and inside the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. The UNRWA, the main U.N. aid agency for Palestinians, said that since the military offensive on Rafah started on May 6, more than 630,000 people have been forced to flee Rafah. "Many have sought refuge in Deir al-Balah, which is now unbearably overcrowded with dire conditions," it added. Deir al-Balah, up the coast from Rafah to the north, is the only other city in Gaza yet to be assaulted by Israeli forces. At the International Court of Justice, or World Court, in The Hague, where South Africa has accused Israel of violating the Genocide Convention, Israeli Justice Ministry official Gilad Noam, defended the operation. Noam said Israel was fighting a war of self-defence and that the military operation in Rafah was not aimed at civilians but at dismantling the last Hamas stronghold. "There is a tragic war going on, but there is no genocide" in Gaza, Noam said. The South African legal team, which set out its case for fresh emergency measures the previous day, framed the Israeli military operation as part of a genocidal plan aimed at bringing about the destruction of the Palestinian people.

US military says first aid shipment has been driven across a newly built US pier into the Gaza Strip
WASHINGTON (AP)/May 17, 2024
Trucks carrying badly needed aid for the Gaza Strip rolled across a newly built U.S. pier and into the besieged enclave for the first time Friday as Israeli restrictions on border crossings and heavy fighting hindered the delivery of food and other supplies. The shipment is the first in an operation that American military officials anticipate could scale up to 150 truckloads a day, all while Israel presses in on the southern city of Rafah in its 7-month offensive against Hamas. But the U.S. and aid groups warn that the floating pier project is not a substitute for land deliveries that could bring in all the food, water and fuel needed in Gaza. Before the war, more than 500 truckloads entered the territory on an average day. The operation's success also remains tenuous because of the risk of militant attack, logistical hurdles and a growing shortage of fuel for the trucks to run due to the Israeli blockade of Gaza since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack. Militants killed 1,200 people and took 250 others hostage in that assault on southern Israel. The Israeli offensive since has killed more than 35,000 Palestinians in Gaza, local health officials say, while hundreds more have been killed in the West Bank. Aid agencies say they are running out of food in southern Gaza and fuel is dwindling, while the U.S. Agency for International Development and the World Food Program say famine has already taken hold in Gaza’s north. Troops finished installing the floating pier on Thursday, and the U.S. military's Central Command said the first aid crossed into Gaza at 9 a.m. Friday. It said no American troops went ashore in the operation. “This is an ongoing, multinational effort to deliver additional aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza via a maritime corridor that is entirely humanitarian in nature, and will involve aid commodities donated by a number of countries and humanitarian organizations,” the command said. The Pentagon said no backups were expected in the distribution process, which is being coordinated by the United Nations. The U.N. humanitarian aid coordinating agency said the start of the operation was welcome but not a replacement for deliveries by land.
“I think everyone in the operation has said it: Any and all aid into Gaza is welcome by any route,” spokesperson Jens Laerke, of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told journalists in Geneva on Friday. “However, getting aid to people they need into and across Gaza cannot and should not depend on a floating dock far from where needs are most acute.”
The U.N. earlier said fuel deliveries brought through land routes have all but stopped and that would make it extremely difficult to bring the aid to Gaza’s people. “It doesn’t matter how the aid comes, whether it’s by sea or whether by land, without fuel, aid won’t get to the people,” U.N. deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said the issue of fuel deliveries comes up in all U.S. conversations with the Israelis. She also said the plan is to begin slowly with the sea route and ramp up the truck deliveries over time as they work the kinks out of the system. Israel fears Hamas will use fuel in the war, but it asserts it places no limits on the entry of humanitarian aid and blames the U.N. for delays in distributing goods entering Gaza. Under pressure from the U.S., Israel has opened a pair of crossings to deliver aid into the territory’s hard-hit north in recent weeks.
It has said that a series of Hamas attacks on the main crossing, Kerem Shalom, have disrupted the flow of goods. The U.N. says fighting, Israeli fire and chaotic security conditions have hindered delivery. There have also been violent protests by Israelis that disrupted aid shipments. Israel recently seized the key Rafah border crossing in its push against Hamas around that city on the Egyptian border, raising fears about civilians' safety while also cutting off the main entry for aid into the Gaza Strip. U.S. President Joe Biden ordered the pier project, expected to cost $320 million. The boatloads of aid will be deposited at a port facility built by the Israelis just southwest of Gaza City and then distributed by aid groups.
U.S. officials said the initial shipment totaled as much as 500 tons of aid. The U.S. has closely coordinated with Israel on how to protect the ships and personnel working on the beach. But there are still questions about the safety of aid workers who distribute the food, said Sonali Korde, assistant to the administrator of USAID's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, which is helping with logistics. “There is a very insecure operating environment,” and aid groups are still struggling to get clearance for their planned movements in Gaza, Korde said. That concern was highlighted last month when Israeli strike killed seven relief workers from World Central Kitchen whose trip had been coordinated with Israeli officials. The group had also brought aid in by sea. Pentagon officials have made it clear that security conditions will be monitored closely and could prompt a shutdown of the maritime route, even if just temporarily. Navy Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, a deputy commander at the U.S. military’s Central Command, told reporters Thursday that “we are confident in the ability of this security arrangement to protect those involved.”Already, the site has been targeted by mortar fire during its construction, and Hamas has threatened to target any foreign forces who “occupy” the Gaza Strip.Biden has made it clear that there will be no U.S. forces on the ground in Gaza, so third-country contractors will drive the trucks onto the shore. Israeli forces are in charge of security on shore, but there are also two U.S. Navy warships nearby that can protect U.S. troops and others. The aid for the sea route is collected and inspected in Cyprus, then loaded onto ships and taken about 200 miles (320 kilometers) to the large floating pier off the Gaza coast. There, the pallets are transferred onto the trucks that then drive onto the Army boats, which will shuttle the trucks from the pier to a floating causeway anchored to the beach. Once the trucks drop off the aid, they return to the boats.

What to know about how much the aid from a US pier project will help Gaza
ELLEN KNICKMEYER/AP/May 17/2024
WASHINGTON/ A U.S.-built pier is in place to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza by sea, but no one will know if the new route will work until a steady stream of deliveries begins reaching starving Palestinians. The trucks that will roll off the pier project installed Thursday will face intensified fighting, Hamas threats to target any foreign forces and uncertainty about whether the Israeli military will ensure that aid convoys have access and safety from attack by Israeli forces. Even if the sea route performs as hoped, U.S, U.N. and aid officials caution, it will bring in a fraction of the aid that's needed to the embattled enclave. Here's a look at what's ahead for aid arriving by sea:
WILL THE SEA ROUTE END THE CRISIS IN GAZA?
No, not even if everything with the sea route works perfectly, American and international officials say. U.S. military officials hope to start with about 90 truckloads of aid a day through the sea route, growing quickly to about 150 trucks a day.
Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, and other aid officials have consistently said Gaza needs deliveries of more than 500 truckloads a day — the prewar average — to help a population struggling without adequate food or clean water during seven months of war between Israel and Hamas.
Israel has hindered deliveries of food, fuel and other supplies through land crossings since Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel launched the conflict in October. The restrictions on border crossings and fighting have brought on a growing humanitarian catastrophe for civilians. International experts say all 2.3 million of Gaza's people are experiencing acute levels of food insecurity, 1.1 million of them at “catastrophic” levels. Power and U.N. World Food Program Director Cindy McCain say north Gaza is in famine. At that stage, saving the lives of children and others most affected requires steady treatment in clinical settings, making a cease-fire critical, USAID officials say. At full operation, international officials have said, aid from the sea route is expected to reach a half-million people. That's just over one-fifth of the population.
WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES FOR THE SEA ROUTE NOW?
The U.S. plan is for the U.N. to take charge of the aid once it's brought in. The U.N. World Food Program will then turn it over to aid groups for delivery. U.N. officials have expressed concern about preserving their neutrality despite the involvement in the sea route by the Israeli military — one of the combatants in the conflict — and say they are negotiating that. There are still questions on how aid groups will safely operate in Gaza to distribute food to those who need it most, said Sonali Korde, assistant to the administrator for USAID's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, which is helping with logistics.
U.S. and international organizations including the U.S. government's USAID and the Oxfam, Save the Children and International Rescue Committee nonprofits say Israeli officials haven't meaningfully improved protections of aid workers since the military's April 1 attack that killed seven aid workers with the World Central Kitchen organization. Talks with the Israeli military “need to get to a place where humanitarian aid workers feel safe and secure and able to operate safely. And I don’t think we’re there yet," Korde told reporters Thursday. Meanwhile, fighting is surging in Gaza. It isn’t threatening the new shoreline aid distribution area, Pentagon officials say, but they have made it clear that security conditions could prompt a shutdown of the maritime route, even just temporarily. The U.S. and Israel have developed a security plan for humanitarian groups coming to a “marshaling yard” next to the pier to pick up the aid, said U.S. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of the U.S. military’s Central Command. USAID Response Director Dan Dieckhaus said aid groups would follow their own security procedures in distributing the supplies. Meanwhile, Israeli forces have moved into the border crossing in the southern city of Rafah as part of their offensive, preventing aid from moving through, including fuel. U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said that without fuel, delivery of all aid in Gaza can't happen.
WHAT'S NEEDED?
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, the U.N. and aid groups have pressed Israel to allow more aid through land crossings, saying that's the only way to ease the suffering of Gaza's civilians. They've also urged Israel's military to actively coordinate with aid groups to stop Israeli attacks on humanitarian workers. “Getting aid to people in need into and across Gaza cannot and should not depend on a floating dock far from where needs are most acute,” U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq told reporters Thursday. “To stave off the horrors of famine, we must use the fastest and most obvious route to reach the people of Gaza — and for that, we need access by land now,” Haq said. U.S. officials agree that the pier is only a partial solution at best, and say they are pressing Israel for more.
WHAT DOES ISRAEL SAY?
Israel says it places no limits on the entry of humanitarian aid and blames the U.N. for delays in distributing goods entering Gaza. The U.N. says ongoing fighting, Israeli fire and chaotic security conditions have hindered delivery. Under pressure from the U.S., Israel has in recent weeks opened a pair of crossings to deliver aid into hard-hit northern Gaza. It said a series of Hamas attacks on the main crossing, Kerem Shalom, have disrupted the flow of goods.

Rafah hospital braces for casualty influx as Israel readies Gaza push
Hatem Khaled/RAFAH, Gaza (Reuters)/Fri, May 17, 2024
The Kuwaiti Speciality Hospital is one of the few places in Rafah the wounded or dying can turn for care, but that role may come under unbearable pressure if Israel launches a full-scale advance into the southern Gaza city, doctors there say. Israeli forces are bearing down on Rafah as part of their drive to eradicate Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, despite warnings this could result in mass casualties in an area where displaced civilians have found shelter. Staff at the Speciality Hospital say they fear such an assault would produce a crush of new patients that would overwhelm exhausted doctors, who already complain of shortages of medicine and proper equipment. "We have been here from the start of the war until now, and I do hope they will not target us, they will not threaten us," said doctor Jamal al-Hams. "I do hope the whole medical team will continue to present its services to the injured people, to the critically ill patients, to the people who have chronic diseases," he added. As ambulances stood by at the hospital gates, plumes of smoke rose into the air nearby. Gaza's medical system has virtually collapsed under Israeli bombardment, which began after a Hamas-led attack on the country on Oct. 7 when gunmen killed over 1,200 people and took over 250 hostage, triggering an Israeli military onslaught in response. The Israeli campaign has killed over 35,000 Palestinians and wounded over 75,000, Gaza health authorities say. Doctors complain they have to perform surgery, including amputations, with no anaesthetics or pain killers.Palestinian Abdelilah Farhat, a patient at the hospital, said he had survived a brush with death while he was out looking for a grocery store that was open.
ANXIETY, TRAUMA
"Thank God, he had it fated that I would get injured, and he saved me. The rocket fell only one meter away from a man," he said.
"They (Israelis) dropped a rocket on civilians just walking - they were just looking for food to eat," he said. Witnesses and medical professionals said Israeli troops have attacked hospitals, blockaded them and killed doctors and other civilians there. Israel denies such allegations and says it goes to great lengths to protect civilians. It says hospitals in Gaza are used by Hamas as bases, and has released videos and pictures supporting the assertion. Hamas and medical staff deny this. The closure of the Rafah crossing between southern Gaza and Egypt has deepened the anxiety and trauma for patients desperate for medical attention abroad. It has been a main conduit for humanitarian aid entering the enclave, a medical supply route and exit point for medical evacuees seeking treatment outside the besieged territory. Israel said on May 7 it had taken operational control of the crossing, vowing it would not compromise on preventing Hamas having any future role there. "The last medical supplies that we got in Gaza was before May 6," World Health Organisation spokesperson Tarik Jašarević said at a U.N. press briefing on Friday. "We don't have fuel; we have hospitals that are under evacuation order; we have a situation where we cannot move physically."

Israel tells World Court South Africa case makes a mockery of genocide
AFP/May 17, 2024
THE HAGUE: Israel defended the military necessity of its Gaza offensive on Friday at the International Court of Justice and asked judges to throw out a request by South Africa to order it to halt operations in Rafah and withdraw from the Palestinian territory. Israeli Justice Ministry official Gilad Noam called South Africa’s case, which accuses Israel of violating the Genocide Convention, “completely divorced from facts and circumstances.” “(The case) makes a mockery of the heinous charge of genocide,” Noam said. He called it “an obscene exploitation of the most sacred convention,” referring to the international treaty banning genocide, agreed after the Holocaust of European Jews in World War Two. The convention requires all countries to act to prevent genocide, and the ICJ, also known as the World Court, which hears disputes between states, has concluded that this gives South Africa a right to make the case.
A woman who yelled “liars!” during Israel’s presentation was removed by security guards, a rare protest in the “Great Hall of Justice” courtroom in The Hague. “There is a tragic war going on, but there is no genocide” in Gaza, Noam said. In past rulings, the court has rejected Israel’s demands to dismiss the case and ordered Israel to prevent acts of genocide against the Palestinians, while stopping short of ordering it to halt the assault. Ahead of Israel’s presentation, several dozen pro-Israeli protesters gathered outside, displaying photographs of hostages taken by Hamas fighters on Oct. 7 and demanding their release. The South African legal team, which set out its case for fresh emergency measures the previous day, framed the Israeli military operation as part of a genocidal plan aimed at bringing about the destruction of the Palestinian people. South Africa’s ambassador to the Netherlands, Vusimuzi Madonsela, requested the court to order Israel to “immediately, totally and unconditionally, withdraw the Israeli army from the entirety of the Gaza Strip.”South Africa brought its latest request for emergency action in response to an Israeli military assault on Rafah at the southern edge of Gaza, refuge for half the territory’s 2.3 million people who fled Israel’s offensive further north. Israel’s Noam said that Israel’s military operations were not aimed at civilians, but at Hamas terrorists using Rafah as a stronghold, who have tunnel systems which could be used to smuggle hostages and militants out of Gaza. Examples of alleged violations by Israel raised by South Africa were “not evidence a policy of illegal behavior, let alone a policy of genocide,” he said. Ordering Israel to withdraw its troops would sentence remaining hostages in Gaza to death, Noam said. More than 35,300 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s seven-month-old assault on the Gaza Strip, health officials in the enclave said on Thursday. The war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting 253 others. This week’s hearings focus only on issuing emergency measures and it will likely take years before the court can rule on the underlying genocide charge. A decision on the request for emergency measures is expected next week.

Police shoot dead armed attacker who started fire in Rouen synagogue
Saskya Vandoorne and Xiaofei Xu, CNN/ May 17, 2024
Police have shot dead an armed attacker who was trying to set fire to a synagogue in the northern French city of Rouen, according to authorities. A male suspect entered the building early Friday morning and threw what appeared to be a Molotov cocktail, the local mayor said. The man climbed on top of a trash bin and got to the second floor of the synagogue, then threw the projectile into the building causing a fire, Rouen mayor Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol told journalists at the scene. “He was [quickly] brought down by security forces before trying to wrestle with them. He then tried to assault security forces with a knife, a long knife,” the mayor said, adding it was then when security forces opened fired and killed the suspect. No one was hurt during the attempted attack, according to Mayer-Rossignol. Police arrived very quickly, partially because they saw the suspect on security cameras, he said. The local prosecutor’s office has launched two inquiries, one into the arson and the other into the police firing of arms, Mayer-Rossignol said. Chmouel Lubecki, a rabbi at the synagogue, told CNN affiliate BFMTV on Friday morning: “Unfortunately, we were expecting this.”“We all have this worry inside of us, but when it actually happens, it is still shocking,” he added. France’s Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin tweeted his support for the police who intervened. “Early this morning, police officers in Rouen killed an armed individual clearly intent on setting fire to the city’s synagogue. I congratulate them on their responsiveness and courage,” Darmanin said. Rouen authorities had increased police presence at the city’s synagogue following the October 7 attacks in Israel. Security measures have ramped up at Jewish institutions across France in response to tensions around the ongoing Israel-Gaza war. Darmanin last month announced additional security at synagogues and Jewish schools. “As Passover approaches and given the current international situation, I have told local officials to significantly step up security at places visited by our Jewish compatriots, especially with regards to synagogues and Jewish schools,” the minister wrote on X.

Russia says US 'playing with fire' in 'indirect war' with Moscow
MOSCOW (Reuters)/Fri, May 17, 2024
A top Russian diplomat said on Friday the United States had long since entered into a state of indirect war with Moscow and was playing with fire over Ukraine by behaving in such a way that the situation could spin out of control. The comments by deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov in an interview with state TASS news agency reflect growing Russian concern over what Moscow casts as dangerous Western escalation in Ukraine as Russian forces advance in several places. "We warn that they are playing with fire. They have long been in a state of indirect war with the Russian Federation," Ryabkov told TASS, referring to the United States. "They somehow fail to realise that, in order to satisfy their own geopolitical ideas, they are approaching a phase in which it will be very difficult to control what is happening and to prevent a dramatic crisis."Ukraine and the West accuse Russia of waging an unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine aimed at seizing land. Moscow says what it calls its "special military operation", launched in February 2022, is defensive and aimed at bolstering Russian security against a hostile West. Russia has interpreted recent comments from Western diplomats as an aggressive shift in position and the Russian defence ministry said this month that President Vladimir Putin had ordered drills to rehearse using tactical nuclear weapons in what officials said was a response to Western rhetoric. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, during a visit to Kyiv on May 3, said Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by Britain to strike targets inside Russia, and that it was up to Kyiv whether or not to do so. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made similar comments about U.S.-supplied weapons during a visit on Wednesday to Kyiv, where he accused Putin of "ramping up yet another offensive against Ukraine" in the east. Blinken said Washington had "not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war."Ukraine has targeted military and energy targets across Russia, which is bombarding targets inside Ukraine in attacks that have killed thousands of civilians, to try to degrade Moscow's military capacities. Steps by the U.S. and the European Union to look at the possibility of using frozen Russian assets or the profits on them to help Ukraine have also angered Moscow. Russia accuses Washington of trying to bully European countries into taking more radical steps to thwart it in Ukraine.
LIVING 'IN A BOX'
Ryabkov told TASS that Washington appeared oblivious to the grave risks attached to its behaviour. "This rhetoric, this drumming, this constant baiting of their allies to help Ukraine even more, to expand their support, shows only one thing: people are living, as they themselves say, 'in a box'," he said. "This is the great risk of the current situation, because it is impossible to get through to them (the Americans). Ryabkov complained that the West had adopted a stance of strategic uncertainty and ambiguity towards Russia, trying to make it difficult for Moscow to predict how NATO will react in various situations, including with nuclear weapons. "Russia will put the topic of 'red lines' aside and will respond to the West in a mirror manner," Ryabkov said. Russia's diplomacy with the West was now in crisis management mode and was focused on trying to ensure that tensions do not spill over into a large-scale conflict, he added.

Turkey's Erdogan pardons elderly generals imprisoned over 1997 'postmodern coup'
ANKARA, Turkey (AP)/Fri, May 17, 2024
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday pardoned seven former top military officers who were sentenced to life terms in prison over the ouster of an Islamic-led government in 1997. The former generals, who are in their late 70s and 80s, were pardoned due to health issues and old age, according to a decision published in the country’s Official Gazette overnight. A court sentenced the generals to life in prison in 2018 for their role in a campaign that was led by Turkey’s pro-secular military and forced the resignation of the prime minister of the time, Necmettin Erbakan. Their sentences were confirmed by a court of appeals in 2021. The ouster was later dubbed Turkey’s “postmodern coup” because unlike previous military takeovers in the country, no tanks or soldiers were used. Erbakan’s government was replaced by a coalition that was nominated by the president.
Those pardoned and expected to be released from prison later on Friday include Cetin Dogan, 83, who was head of military operation at the time. Former Gen. Cevik Bir, 85, who was deputy chief of military staff, was released along with other officers earlier due to ill-health. The main defendant, former Chief of General Staff İsmail Hakkı Karadayı, died in 2020, while the appeals process was still continuing. At the time of Erbakan's ouster, the army was concerned by his efforts to raise the profile of Islam in the predominantly Muslim but secular country. On Feb. 28, 1997, the military-dominated National Security Council threatened action if Erbakan did not back down. He resigned four months later. The trial was one of several held in the country against military officers as Erdogan pressed ahead with efforts to make generals account for intervening in government affairs. Turkey’s military, which had long regarded its role as protector of the country’s secular traditions, staged three coups between 1960 and 1980. In July 2016, Turkey quashed a coup attempt that the government has blamed on supporters of a U.S.-based Muslim cleric, Fethullah Gulen. The cleric denies involvement. The pardon comes a week after Erdogan met with main opposition party leader Ozgur Ozel, who raised the issue of clemency. Ozel’s pro-secular Republican People’s Party swept local elections in March.

UN rights chief warns of catastrophe in Sudan's al-Fashir
Reuters/Fri, May 17, 2024
The U.N. human rights chief said on Friday he was "horrified" by escalating violence near Sudan's al-Fashir and held discussions this week with commanders from both sides of the conflict, warning of a humanitarian disaster if the city is attacked. Hundreds of thousands of people are sheltering in al-Fashir without basic supplies amid fears that nearby fighting will turn into an all-out battle for the city, the Sudanese army's last stronghold in the western Darfur region. Its capture would be a major boost for the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as regional and international powers try to push the sides to negotiate an end to a 13-month war. Ravina Shamdasani, spokesperson for High Commissioner Volker Turk, said Turk had held two parallel phone calls this week with Sudan army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the leader of the RSF, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, urging them to de-escalate. "The High Commissioner warned both commanders that fighting in (al-Fashir), where more than 1.8 million residents and internally displaced people are currently encircled and at imminent risk of famine, would have a catastrophic impact on civilians, and would deepen intercommunal conflict with disastrous humanitarian consequences," she said at a U.N. press briefing in Geneva, adding that Turk was "horrified" by recent violence there. The U.N. human rights office said at least 58 people had been killed around al-Fashir since last week.

Protests against powerful group persist in Syria's last major rebel stronghold
IDLIB, Syria (AP) /GHAITH ALSAYED/Fri, May 17, 2024
Members of Syria’s most powerful insurgent group in the country’s rebel-held northwest fired bullets in the air and beat up protesters with clubs Friday, injuring some of them as weekslong protests demanding the release of detainees and an end to the group’s rule intensified. Protests took place Friday in several areas, including the provincial capital of Idlib and major towns such as Jisr al-Shughour, Binnish and Sarmada. They came days after Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, warned dignitaries in Idlib province to convince people to stop protesting, describing the demonstrators as anarchists. The protests, which called for the downfall of al-Golani, broke out in late February following the death of a member of a rebel faction, allegedly while being tortured in a jail run by HTS, which previously had links to al-Qaida. Since then, HTS released hundreds of detainees but many remain in jails run by the group’s so-called General Security Agency. After more than 13 years of civil war and more than half a million deaths, Idlib is the last major rebel stronghold in Syria. On Tuesday, HTS members attacked protesters with clubs and sharp objects, injuring several people in the demonstration outside a military court in Idlib city. Anti-HTS sentiments had been rising since a wave of arrests by the group of senior officials within the organization, which was previously known as the Nusra Front, when it was al-Qaida's branch in Syria, before changing its name several times and distancing itself from al-Qaida. Over the years, al-Golani’s HTS crushed many of its opponents to become the strongest group in the rebel-held region that stretches to the western parts of Aleppo province. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said HTS fighters closed major roads leading to Idlib city Friday to prevent the demonstrators from reaching the provincial capital. Over the past years, HTS has been trying to distance itself from al-Qaida and market itself as a more moderate Syrian opposition group after years of strict religious rule. In 2017, HTS set up a so-called “salvation government” to run day-to-day affairs in the region. At first, it attempted to enforce a strict interpretation of Islamic law. Religious police were tasked with making sure that women were covered, with only their faces and hands showing. The police would force shops to close on Fridays so that people could attend the weekly prayers. Playing music was banned, as was smoking water pipes in public.

Houthis say they downed US MQ-9 drone over Yemen’s Maareb
AP/May 17, 2024
DUBAI: Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Friday claimed to have shot down an American drone, hours after footage circulated online of what appeared to be the wreckage of an MQ-9 Predator drone. The US military did not immediately acknowledge the incident. If confirmed, this would be yet another Predator downed by the Houthis as they press their campaign over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed that rebels shot down the Predator on Thursday with a surface-to-air missile, promising to later release footage of the attack. He described the drone as “carrying out hostile actions” in Yemen’s Marib province, which remains held by allies of Yemen’s exiled, internationally recognized government. Online video showed wreckage resembling the pieces of the Predator, as well as footage of that wreckage on fire. The US military did not respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press over the Houthi claim. While the rebels have made claims about attacks that turned out later not to be true, they have a history of shooting down US drones and have been armed by their main benefactor, Iran, with weapons capable of high-altitude attack.
Since the Houthis seized the country’s north and its capital of Sanaa in 2014, the US military has previously lost at least five drones to the rebels. Reapers, which cost around $30 million apiece, can fly at altitudes up to 50,000 feet and have an endurance of up to 24 hours before needing to land.
The drone shootdown comes as the Houthis launch attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, demanding Israel ends the war in Gaza, which has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians there. The war began after Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking some 250 others hostage. The Houthis have launched more than 50 attacks on shipping, seized one vessel and sunk another since November, according to the US Maritime Administration. Houthi attacks have dropped in recent weeks as the rebels have been targeted by a US-led airstrike campaign in Yemen. Shipping through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden still remains low because of the threat, however.

Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Security Council announces arrest of top aide of former Daesh leader
REUTERS/May 17, 2024
BAGHDAD: The Kurdish Regional Security Council announced in a statement on Friday that it captured a senior Daesh figure, Socrates Khalil. Khalil was known to be a confidant of the late Daesh leader, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. “After spending five years in Turkiye, Khalil returned to Kurdistan with a forged passport and was swiftly apprehended,” the statement said. Khalil made bombs for the Daesh and was entrusted by Al-Baghdadi with various major operations, the statement added, saying that he was instrumental in the 2014 Daesh takeover of Mosul, and participated in many battles against Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga forces.

UK imposes sanctions over Russia-North Korea ‘arms-for-oil’ trade
Reuters/May 17, 2024
Britain announced sanctions on Friday against three companies and one individual over what it called the "illicit ‘arms-for-oil’ trade" between Russia and North Korea. The announcement followed a decision by the United States to impose sanctions on two Russian individuals and three Russian companies for facilitating arms transfers between Russia and North Korea, including ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine. "The sanctions highlight the joint malign efforts of Russia and the DPRK (North Korea) to circumvent (U.N.) sanctions on petroleum products, which help facilitate the DPRK’s unlawful military programs," the government said in a statement. The statement said Britain was acting "alongside international partners" and quoted Foreign Secretary David Cameron as saying Britain would continue to hold Moscow and Pyongyang to account for such arms transfers. "Putin is straining every sinew to sustain his illegal war in Ukraine, even resorting to illicit ‘arms-for-oil’ trade deals with the DPRK, blatantly violating UN sanctions that Russia itself voted for, and vetoing UN Monitoring panels that report on their activity," he said. Britain said the new sanctions were against Paekyangsan Shipping, which transfers petroleum products between North Korea and Russia, and Toplivo Bunkering Co (TBK) for allowing vessels involved in such transfers to bunker in Russia's Vostochny Port. The measures include asset freezes, transport sanctions and travel bans, and also target Russian cargo services provider Vostochnaya Stevedoring Co and TBK Director Aleksey Vorotnikov, it said.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 17-18/2024
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/May 17/2024
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
Since his first speech on the subject last November, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has linked the Gaza war to his group’s own confrontation with Israel, and this linkage is being reaffirmed by the militia’s latest actions. As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) make their initial moves on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, Hezbollah is announcing the use of new weapons in attacks across the northern border, calling for further troop mobilizations, and giving other signals of imminent escalation. Whether these early moves are real or largely symbolic, the risk is high that the group will try to exploit the Rafah campaign in order to deepen Israel’s tensions with Washington and the wider international community. For its part, the Israeli government is caught in a difficult balancing act—it faces rising pressure from displaced northern residents to counter the Hezbollah threat so they can go back home, even as many IDF elements may now be tied down in Rafah for weeks or months. All of these factors will heighten the danger of miscalculation and all-out war unless tough diplomacy is brought to bear on the situation.
Escalation Since April
Hezbollah has relied on its core fighting force since the Gaza war broke out in October, but once Israel announced the beginning of the Rafah campaign, the group called for a general mobilization, which usually means activating its reserves. This could be just a rhetorical mobilization—rather than actually deploying all of its reserves to the battlefront, Hezbollah may simply be continuing its strategy of measured statements and actions in response to changing developments while steering clear of full mobilization and all-out war, at least for now. Yet regardless of the group’s intentions, changes on the ground over the past few days point to a growing risk of war whether the parties want it or not.
On May 13, the Lebanese television network al-Mayadeen reported that Hezbollah had revealed the use of a new heavy rocket for the first time (the “Jihad Mughniyah”). It also noted that a new drone (the “Suhab”) was being used to target Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.
On May 8, an IDF sergeant was killed during a Hezbollah strike on a base in Malkia, while two other soldiers were killed at their post near Metula on May 6, bringing the IDF’s total death toll on the Lebanon front to fourteen since October. Nine Israeli civilians have been killed as well.
These developments are unfolding in the wake of last month’s direct exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, which punctuated the significance and sensitivity of Hezbollah’s role as Tehran’s top regional proxy. The April 13 missile and drone attack on Israel exposed the inadequacy of Iran’s military capabilities—if it hopes to pierce allied defenses in a potential larger operation or future war, Tehran would likely need Hezbollah to join in with its huge arsenal. This realization also means that Hezbollah’s weapons remain a major defensive shield and insurance policy for Iran, one that the regime is loath to expend on behalf of Gaza or Hamas. At the same time, however, Hezbollah likely felt it could not keep taking damage from Israel indefinitely. The group therefore seemed to choose the middle path of visibly but cautiously escalating after April 13, and Israel has followed suit.
For example, Hezbollah has been using its third-generation drones for the first time. On April 17, it launched a relatively precise drone strike on the border town of Arab al-Aramshe, wounding eighteen Israelis (mostly IDF reservists). This followed a similar drone strike near Beit Hillel and Kiryat Shmona the previous day. In both cases, the group used a more advanced type of Ababil kamikaze drone capable of singling out specific targets.
On April 22, Hezbollah claimed to strike a base north of Acre, its deepest attack into Israel since the Gaza war began. In addition to suggesting that more sophisticated weapons were being fielded, this incident also signaled that the group was ready to adopt new rules of engagement and widen the zone of hostilities. Significantly, all of this happened shortly after four IDF soldiers were wounded while they were conducting a cross-border foray inside Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s Rafah Calculus
The onset of the Rafah campaign is vital to Hezbollah for two main reasons. First, international reactions to the operation have been very harsh due to the possible humanitarian consequences, leading Hezbollah to conclude that Israel may now be more isolated and vulnerable. Even the Biden administration publicly criticized the operation and halted the shipment of certain munitions to Israel—a decision that Hezbollah, Iran, and other actors likely read as a shift in U.S.-Israel relations, even though most if not all weapons transfers have reportedly resumed. In a May 13 speech following the IDF’s move on Rafah, Nasrallah reaffirmed the “categorical” connection between the Lebanese and Gaza fronts, noting that “the entire world is now talking about the right of the Palestinians to have a state” due to the collective efforts of Hamas, Hezbollah, and their allies in the “resistance.”
Second, although Israel may continue low-level military activity in Gaza for months to come, Rafah could spell the end of its main battle operations there. That means the IDF may soon be able to refocus more resources and attention on the Lebanon front with the goal of returning northern residents to their homes. Indeed, multiple indicators and statements imply an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah after Rafah.
If Nasrallah suspects that Israel is preparing to attack Hezbollah next, he will be forced to choose between two undesirable options: enter a full-scale war or accept the conditions that U.S. and French diplomats have been proposing recently. The latter scenario would mean withdrawing from the border (or, at least, committing to do so on paper) while figuring out a new deterrence equation.
Accordingly, Hezbollah may feel compelled to flex its muscles during the Rafah campaign in order to impose conditions on Israel, Washington, and Paris. The group would likely prefer to go back to the pre-October 7 status quo without being forced to publicly retreat from the border (even though Israel would presumably never accept that condition). It also needs to make sure that the IDF is deterred from directly hitting Iran or drastically curtailing the Iranian presence and influence in the region.
U.S. Policy Options
In the early months of the Gaza war, the Biden administration’s strong support for Israel, tough messaging to Iran and Hezbollah, and heavy deployment of warships and fighter jets to the region constituted a strong deterrent. Hezbollah realized the risks associated with challenging that stance. Today, robust U.S. deterrence remains crucial not only to preventing a wider war, but also to facilitating an effective ceasefire deal along the Israel-Lebanon border while potentially convincing Hezbollah to limit its escalation in the meantime. The group has already committed to stop its attacks once the Gaza war is over, so it is certainly amenable to the general idea of de-escalation.
To reach these goals, Washington should focus on several efforts:
Avoid offering political or economic compromises to Hezbollah and the many Lebanese state institutions it essentially controls. Indeed, U.S. officials should clearly and publicly state that no American-backed economic bailout will be forthcoming if the group escalates.
Increase pressure on all the pillars of Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon, including its military arsenal (by constraining the flow of weapons from Iran), its domestic political allies, and its hold over the Shia Muslim community.
Coordinate public pressure and statements with European and Arab partners to present a united front.
Maintain the heightened U.S. military presence in the region and conduct joint exercises with partner forces whenever possible.
Repeat President Biden’s “Don’t” warning from April even more loudly and clearly, specifying that Iran and its regional assets might not be spared from the consequences if Hezbollah escalates. This message would have the added benefit of showing that the administration’s current rift with Israel over weapons shipments will not apply in the event of any conflict against Hezbollah.
Indeed, the administration can continue advancing a ceasefire deal to prevent war while still making clear that it will have Israel’s back if war breaks out. On May 14, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan affirmed that the United States will not let Iran and its proxies succeed: “Hezbollah is attacking every day...We are working with Israel and other partners to protect against these threats and to prevent escalation into an all-out regional war, through a calibrated combination of diplomacy, deterrence, force posture adjustments, and use of force when necessary to protect our people and defend our interests and allies.”
Iran and Hezbollah need to hear such messages more often, particularly regarding Washington’s willingness to combine diplomacy with the use of force. Despite the lack of progress in reaching a Lebanon deal, the process has reassured Hezbollah—perhaps too well—that preventing war is the international community’s sole priority. It may therefore be useful to shake up this reassurance a bit by signaling that Israel would have full U.S. support if diplomacy fails, however undesirable the resultant conflict may be. If such warnings prove credible, Hezbollah may calculate that the risk is too great and scale back its near-term escalation accordingly. Indeed, the old Roman adage applies once again: if the Biden administration wants peace, it should prepare for war.
**Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Rubin Program on Arab Politics.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-israels-rafah-campaign-might-shape-hezbollahs-operations

A Year of Arab Engagement with Assad Has Failed
Andrew J. Tabler/The Washington Institute/May 17/ 2024
The “carrots” approach only emboldened the regime to increase its smuggling of Captagon and weapons, but Caesar sanctions remain a potent stick.
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is scheduled to attend the Arab League summit in Bahrain this week, nearly a year after his country was readmitted to the organization at the 2023 summit in Saudi Arabia. Yet a quick look at the proceedings of the league’s Arab Ministerial Liaison Committee on Syria—coupled with a recent spike in Jordanian military strikes against cross-border Captagon smuggling networks—shows that Arab engagement with Assad has failed to rehabilitate the regime. As tougher measures against Damascus come under consideration on Capitol Hill, it is imperative that the United States find bipartisan consensus on extending the “Caesar sanctions” to ensure accountability for the Assad regime’s mass atrocities. Washington must also take urgent steps to facilitate vital humanitarian access in Syria and consult with its Arab partners on developing a strategy for what comes next—including a comprehensive plan for combating drug and weapons smuggling out of Syria.
Arab Normalization, U.S. Response
In 2021—ten years after the Arab League suspended Syria’s membership due to the regime’s brutal suppression of the uprising that ignited the civil war—Jordan and Egypt initiated a conditional rapprochement with Damascus. Desperate to reopen the northern border, boost trade, and facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, Amman produced a white paper on engagement that included a complicated plan for moving Jordanian electricity and Israeli and Egyptian natural gas through Syria to Lebanon. Standing in the way were Assad’s regional isolation and U.S. sanctions mandated by the Caesar Act, which restricts reconstruction investment in Assad-controlled parts of Syria until regime figures are held accountable and a viable political settlement is reached.
At the time, the Biden administration supported the energy initiative as a means of improving the local humanitarian situation. To get around congressional sanctions, administration officials reportedly determined that the deal’s terms—transmitting gas and electricity across Syria in return for in-kind payments to Damascus amounting to 8 percent of the energy transferred—did not constitute a “significant transaction” under the Caesar Act. Ultimately, the idea did not come to fruition, in part because the administration was unable to provide firm written assurances that planned transactions would be exempt from sanctions.
Even as Arab officials were attempting to implement this energy deal in 2022-23, Assad regime networks were dramatically increasing their production of the highly addictive synthetic stimulant Captagon and smuggling massive quantities of it throughout the region. Precisely tallying how much revenue this operation netted (and still nets) for the regime is difficult, but Assad-controlled areas of Syria were producing the vast majority of the world’s illicit Captagon trade, worth an estimated $5.7 billion in 2021. In Saudi Arabia alone, 107 million pills were seized in 2022, which would have amounted to a whopping $2.7 billion at the approximate street price of $25 per pill. In 2023, the United States and European Union sanctioned Assad’s brother Maher for using the Syrian Army’s 4th Division to facilitate Captagon production and trafficking with help from Lebanese Hezbollah and other Iranian militias.
With the Captagon problem spiraling out of control, the humanitarian situation in Syria worsening after the major February 2023 earthquake, and zero progress being made toward a Syrian political settlement, Saudi Arabia decided to reestablish relations with Assad and support his country’s readmission to the Arab League at the 2023 Jeddah summit. First outlined by the United Arab Emirates, this approach was intended to solve several intractable problems at once by giving Assad positive incentives to change his behavior. Accordingly, the Arab Ministerial Liaison Committee on Syria was established at the summit, composed of the Arab League secretary-general and representatives from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. The committee was charged with four main tasks: (1) curbing Captagon production and smuggling, (2) returning refugees to Syria, (2) advancing the Syrian political process via the constitutional committee, and (4) forming a “regional security coordination” committee. Unspecified but baked into the initiative was the goal of undermining Iran and Hezbollah’s expanding influence in Syria, including but not limited to Captagon networks.
In response to Syria’s readmission, U.S. legislators in the House of Representatives introduced the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act, which sought to limit or close the loopholes and exemptions that enabled U.S. support for initiatives like the Jordan-Egypt energy plan. The bill has yet to be passed by the Senate, however, becoming a source of significant debate between aid groups concerned about its impact on humanitarian issues and Syrian American organizations demanding accountability for Assad’s atrocities.
Captagon Spikes, Jordanian Strikes
Following its inaugural meeting in Cairo last August, the Liaison Committee was essentially stillborn due to continued Captagon outflows that forced Jordan to take increased military action. By the end of September, the kingdom’s forces had shot down four drones originating from Assad-controlled territory and conducted airstrikes against drug production facilities near the Syrian border village of Umm al-Rumman. In response, Jordanian foreign minister Ayman Safadi—who had vocally supported engaging Assad—publicly admitted that drug smuggling had only increased in the years since Amman opened normalization talks. This activity expanded even further in subsequent months, as the onset of winter fog helped smugglers evade patrols and border cameras.
On January 17, a Jordanian airstrike against drug warehouses in Syria’s Suwayda province killed ten civilians, sparking a rare public war of words between Damascus and Amman. The Syrian Foreign Ministry expressed “surprise” at the “unjustified” strikes and accused Amman of ignoring the regime’s supposed outreach on smuggling and border security issues. The ministry also noted that Jordan had previously allowed “terrorists” to cross into Syria—the regime’s code word for armed opposition elements during the civil war. In response, Jordan’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that drugs and weapons trafficked from Syria pose a threat to the kingdom’s national security, noting that Damascus had not taken any action to neutralize these problems despite receiving detailed intelligence from Amman (e.g., the names of known smugglers and their supporters; the locations of manufacturing and storage facilities; maps of smuggling routes).
In total, Jordan has reportedly conducted at least eight air and artillery strikes in southern Syria since last August alone. Its forces have also been involved in several major border clashes with drug smugglers, whose raiding parties can number as many as 400 gunmen. Over the same period, the Assad regime has reported seven drug seizures—a paltry total given the massive spike in smuggling activity, which now involves a dizzying array of tactics to evade interdiction (e.g., flocks of carrier pigeons).
Weapons Smuggling
Jordanian authorities are even more worried about the increasing seizure of weapons smuggled from Syria. Any arms that slip through the border could be used domestically or transferred to the West Bank to further inflame Israeli-Palestinian tensions amid the war with Hamas.
This week, Jordanian sources revealed an apparent Iranian role in facilitating such transfers. Reporting on a cache seized in March, the sources indicated that weapons had been sent by Iran-backed militias in Syria to a Hamas-linked Muslim Brotherhood cell in Jordan. In light of these details, Amman may no longer be able to remain cautiously silent about Iranian complicity in the array of threats emanating from Syria.
Last Diplomatic Gasps?
Originally, Arab diplomats planned to address this escalation at the Liaison Committee’s second ministerial meeting scheduled for March 7. Yet the meeting was canceled after Damascus failed to answer the committee’s questions on Captagon and other issues. Instead, the regime sent Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad to Riyadh to address these matters in person via talks with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan and the recently installed Syrian ambassador Ayman Soussan.
The ministerial meeting was then rescheduled for May 8 in Baghdad, but Syria once again failed to provide a written response to the committee’s questions, spurring officials to cancel the event at Amman’s behest. On May 13, Mekdad met with Safadi directly, but a subsequent Jordanian statement implied that no progress had been made on any of the committee’s longstanding requests.
Policy Recommendations
Regardless of how the Manama summit unfolds, the Assad regime has proven that positive inducements will not change its behavior on Captagon trafficking, weapons smuggling, and other threats. This problem has persisted even when Damascus is permitted to pursue its preferred channel of discrete, top-down diplomatic engagement with Riyadh instead of responding to the conditions-based approach led by Jordan. The Biden administration should use the ample evidence supporting this conclusion to dissuade its Arab partners from continuing down the normalization path with Assad, instead helping them develop an effective joint strategy for combating Captagon production and trafficking, among other issues.
In Washington, Caesar sanctions are due to expire in December, while the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act is still awaiting floor time in the Senate after the House passed it by an overwhelming margin in February. The Republican House leadership reportedly intended to include the bill in the supplemental aid package that Biden signed on April 24, but the Democratic House leadership apparently removed it at the White House’s behest to avoid complicating the ongoing quest for a diplomatic megadeal with Saudi Arabia. In recognition of the growing smuggling problem, however, text from the Illicit Captagon Trafficking Suppression Act of 2023 was included in the supplemental.
Going forward, U.S. policymakers should do what is needed to extend the Caesar Act to the Anti-Normalization Act’s proposed date of 2032. And barring an unexpected change in Assad’s behavior, they should close any loopholes that allow the reopening of the Arab Gas Pipeline across Syria. At the same time, Congress needs to be sensitive to continued “de-risking” activities by banks who shun transactions with NGOs providing aid to Syria for fear of violating U.S. sanctions. This means thinking more creatively about sanctions, including a potential “white channel” for humanitarian aid that establishes a payment mechanism for legitimate exports to Syria while avoiding manipulation by the Assad regime. A longer and smarter Caesar Act remains the best means of producing the leverage needed to advance a viable solution to the Syria war.
*Andrew Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and former director for Syria on the National Security Council.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/year-arab-engagement-assad-has-failed

Why the Palestinian Authority Should Not Return to Gaza
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./May 17, 2024
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20641/palestinian-authority-fatah-gaza
The Israeli government, according to reports, is being pressured by the Biden administration to send the money to the PA. This addled and dangerous proposal amounts to expecting the Jews to support the same people who are murdering them. The Biden administration has also been launching a legal and diplomatic offensive to discredit, isolate, and penalize Israel for trying to defend itself against terrorist attacks.
Meanwhile, the PA, instead of acknowledging that it is terrified to go back to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, is trying to pressure Israel into accepting the creation of a Palestinian state and releasing the tax revenues. Unbelievably, the PA and the Biden administration apparently want Israel to grant Palestinians a state that will be ruled by the same murders, rapists and kidnappers who invaded Israel on October 7, 2023.
Abbas might one day return to the Gaza Strip – but only when he sees that Hamas has lost all military might and is no longer in control. Meanwhile, he feels safe and secure being in the West Bank, where Israel is in charge of overall security and is fighting against Hamas and other Iran-backed terrorist proxies. He knows that without Israel's security presence in the West Bank, Hamas would have killed him and toppled the PA long ago.
Allowing Hamas to win its war against Israel would delight two countries deeply committed to supporting terrorism. The first is Qatar, an oil-field protected by a US air base, and a country with which President Joe Biden's brother, James, according to court testimony, might reportedly have had business dealings
The second country is Iran, repeatedly designated as the "leading state sponsor of terrorism" and currently racing toward nuclear weapons capability. The Iranian regime – which presently controls four Middle East capitals in addition to its own -- Sanaa, Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad -- wishes to take over the Middle East, as well as oil-and-mineral-rich Sudan. Iran's rulers would undoubtedly not only pave the way for more October 7-style atrocities against Israel, but also other neighbors -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain -- especially if Iran obtains nuclear weapons.
Abbas, fearful of being called a traitor, is reluctant to take action against the terrorists. It might mean his death. Additionally, he is most likely not pursuing the terrorists because they do not directly threaten him or the PA.
If a Palestinian leader does not even have the bravery to condemn the unimaginable Hamas atrocities of October 7, how can one expect him to confront terrorism emanating from his Palestinian Authority?
The Gaza Strip needs moderate and pragmatic leaders who will embark on a process of deradicalizing and reeducating Gazans to lead peaceful, prosperous and constructive lives, freed of subjugation by their leaders, who will finally prepare their people for peace in the region. At the moment, unfortunately, among the Palestinians, no such leaders exist.
Unbelievably, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Biden administration apparently want Israel to grant Palestinians a state that will be ruled by the same murders, rapists and kidnappers who invaded Israel on October 7, 2023.
Those who believe that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should replace the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip are either gullible, badly uninformed , or living in delusions. The PA can presumably handle civilian issues in the Gaza Strip and pay salaries to civil servants, but it cannot – and will never – take on Hamas directly.
The Israel-Hamas war began more than seven months ago, and it appears that the terrorist organization's military capabilities have not yet been totally neutralized. It could realistically take months, if not years, to destroy the military infrastructure that, over the past two decades, Qatar, Iran, Hamas, and various other terrorist organizations have erected in the Gaza Strip.
Sending PA security personnel to the Gaza Strip while Hamas terrorists are still on the streets would be tantamount to the PA committing suicide. The crimes Hamas carried out against PA President Mahmoud Abbas's supporters in the Gaza Strip during the 2007 coup are still fresh in his memory. That year, Hamas terrorists killed a large number of his security officers and members of his ruling Fatah faction, by, for instance, throwing a PA official off the roof of a tall building. Hamas has already stated that under no circumstances will it allow the PA security forces to re-enter the Gaza Strip.
In early April, Hamas announced that its men had foiled an attempt by PA intelligence officers to enter the Gaza Strip under the cover of being aid workers. The PA General Intelligence Service (GIS) chief, Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj, was alleged by Hamas to have personally overseen the officers' mission. Terrorists from Hamas reportedly arrested 10 GIS officers, while some were able to flee.
"The intelligence officers infiltrated the Gaza Strip to create a state of confusion and chaos on the internal front," Hamas said. "The [Hamas] security services dealt with these elements, and 10 of them were arrested. Anyone who attempts to serve the [Israeli] occupation will be struck with an iron fist."
Hamas continues to oppose attempts by the PA to return to the Gaza Strip. Now it is preventing the PA government from entering the Gaza Strip.
Since its establishment two months ago, the new PA government, led by Mohammad Mustafa, a veteran adviser to Abbas, had for a short time been able to function in the Gaza Strip. Mustafa's government was established as part of the Biden administration's plan to "revitalize" the PA in order to take control of the Gaza Strip once the war ended.
Hamas rejected the PA government on the grounds that Abbas did not consult with it before designating Mustafa as prime minister.
Hamas already warned that establishing a new government would "deepen divisions" among the Palestinians and warned against "making individual and unilateral decisions devoid of substance and without national consensus."
Hamas and other terrorist organizations operating there also rejected the idea of sending international or Arab forces to the Gaza Strip. "The talk about forming an international or Arab force for the Gaza Strip is an illusion and a mirage," Hamas and the terrorist groups recently declared. "Any force that attempts to enter the Gaza Strip will be handled with resistance and treated as an occupying force."
Abbas is fully aware of the dangers Hamas and other terrorist organizations present. That is likely one reason he is hesitant to dispatch his loyalists to the Gaza Strip.
According to Sky News Arabic, Israel has been under pressure from the US to reopen the Rafah border crossing and hand it over to the PA. Earlier this month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took control of the border crossing, which had become a serious security threat. Hamas had held control of the terminal since 2007, when it overthrew the PA and seized control of the entire Gaza Strip. Now both Hamas and Egypt are opposed to reopening the border crossing because of Israel's presence on the Palestinian side.
The US and Israel offered the PA the management of the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. The PA, however, said it would accept the offer only if Israel agreed to a plan that would result in the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
The PA has also demanded that the Israeli government release Palestinian tax revenues that are being withheld in order to stop the PA from paying murder-for hire-salaries, known as "Pay-for-Slay," to terrorists who murder Jews, and to the families of dead terrorist murderers. Abbas has repeatedly emphasized that he will never stop paying these rewards to the terrorists and their families, saying: "Even if I will have to leave my position, I will not compromise on the salary (rawatib) of a Martyr (Shahid) or a prisoner..."
"We will not cut or prevent stipends to the families of the prisoners and martyrs, as some are trying to do..." he had declared earlier. "If we are left with one penny, we will spend it on the families of the prisoners and martyrs."
The funds are also being withheld by Israel because of the PA's ongoing efforts to press the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials, for allegedly committing "war crimes."
The Israeli government, according to reports, is being pressured by the Biden administration to send the money to the PA. This addled and dangerous proposal amounts to expecting the Jews to support the same people who are murdering them. The Biden administration has also been launching a legal and diplomatic offensive to discredit, isolate, and penalize Israel for trying to defend itself against terrorist attacks.
Meanwhile, the PA, instead of acknowledging that it is terrified to go back to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, is trying to pressure Israel into accepting the creation of a Palestinian state and releasing the tax revenues. Unbelievably, the PA and the Biden administration apparently want Israel to grant Palestinians a state that will be ruled by the same murders, rapists and kidnappers who invaded Israel on October 7, 2023.
The October 7 massacre serves as a warning: many Palestinians have not given up their dream of eliminating Israel. Since every last Jew left the Gaza Strip in 2005, the entire place has been a semi-independent state, exclusively ruled by the Palestinians. The Palestinians were given the Gaza Strip unconditionally to be able to create a "Singapore on the Mediterranean." Instead, Gaza was used as a springboard for incessant terrorism over the years, and by the Islamist terrorist groups that invaded Israel on October 7.
Abbas might one day return to the Gaza Strip – but only when he sees that Hamas has lost all military might and is no longer in control. Meanwhile, he feels safe and secure being in the West Bank, where Israel is in charge of overall security and is fighting against Hamas and other Iran-backed terrorist proxies. He knows that without Israel's security presence in the West Bank, Hamas would have killed him and toppled the PA long ago.
Those who are pressuring Israel to halt the war are actually demanding that Hamas be allowed to continue ruling the Gaza Strip, rearm, regroup and repeat the October 7 attack, time and again, until Israel is annihilated, as Hamas official Ghazi Hamad said. He added that "Everything we do is justified."
Allowing Hamas to win its war against Israel would delight two countries deeply committed to supporting terrorism. The first is Qatar, an oil-field protected by a US air base, and a country with which President Joe Biden's brother, James, according to court testimony, might reportedly have had business dealings. Qatar seems never to have met an Islamist terror group that it did not support (here, here and here) or a major US university that it did not fund and indoctrinate. According to MEMRI:
"The terrorist organizations supported by Qatar include Hamas, the Taliban, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the Al-Nusra Front, Hizbullah, and even the Houthis, with whom the U.S. is currently engaged in a battle in the Red Sea."
Qatar also runs Al Jazeera, which has been called a "terror channel", "A Hotbed of Homophobia", and "A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing, Completely free of Charge." It is basically the jihadi mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose motto is:
"Allah is our objective; the Prophet is our leader; the Quran is our law; Jihad is our way; dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope."
According to MEMRI:
"The Al-Jazeera TV network is an arm of the Qatari regime. It is owned by the government and carries out its foreign policy by means of indoctrination of the Arabic-speaking masses worldwide. Al-Jazeera, therefore, should not be discussed as a means of telecommunications, but instead as an unyielding and forceful political tool of Qatari foreign policy under the guise of a mass media network."
The second country deeply committed to supporting terrorism is Iran, repeatedly designated as the "leading state sponsor of terrorism" and currently racing toward nuclear weapons capability. The Iranian regime – which presently controls four Middle East capitals in addition to its own -- Sanaa, Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad -- wishes to take over the Middle East, as well as oil-and-mineral-rich Sudan. Iran's rulers would undoubtedly not only pave the way for more October 7-style atrocities against Israel, but also other neighbors -- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain -- especially if Iran obtains nuclear weapon
Who said that if Abbas returned to the Gaza Strip he would order his security forces to combat terrorism and prevent attacks against Israel?
Between 2005 and 2007, Abbas ruled the Gaza Strip, yet he took no action to stop terrorist groups from firing rockets at Israel. He also took no action to prevent terrorist groups from amassing a sizable arsenal in the Gaza Strip.
Despite having thousands of security officers in the West Bank, Abbas has done little if nothing to prevent armed groups from forming in the several cities and villages that fall under his jurisdiction.
Thousands of gunmen have organized terrorist groups in recent years, particularly in the northern West Bank. These groups have been responsible for many attacks against Israelis. Abbas, fearful of being called a traitor, is reluctant to take action against the terrorists. It might mean his death. Additionally, he is most likely not pursuing the terrorists because they do not directly threaten him or the PA.
If a Palestinian leader does not even have the bravery to condemn the unimaginable Hamas atrocities of October 7, how can one expect him to confront terrorism emanating from his Palestinian Authority?
The Gaza Strip needs moderate and pragmatic leaders who will embark on a process of deradicalizing and reeducating Gazans to lead peaceful, prosperous and constructive lives, freed of subjugation by their leaders, who will finally prepare their people for peace in the region. At the moment, unfortunately, among the Palestinians, no such leaders exist.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Cairo’s double game in Gaza
Haisam Hassanein/ Washington Examiner/May 17/2024
The Israel Defense Force’s move last week into the southern Gaza city of Rafah has exploded in Egypt like a 2,000-pound bomb. Cairo has long been playing a double game, holding Hamas terrorists near while simultaneously trying to appear helpful to the United States and Israel.
Israel taking control of Rafah threatens Egypt’s ability to exploit the chaos in Gaza, both to generate profits for regime insiders and so Cairo can pose as an indispensable mediator and preserve access to U.S. money and arms. It’s not surprising Cairo is reacting hysterically.
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry harshly criticized Israel’s move and announced it would support South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Egyptian pundits were unleashed across Arab media to talk about potential abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty with the Jewish state. Egypt’s anger was so great that it withheld aid from Gazans by refusing to send trucks through the Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza.
But Cairo does not come to the table with clean hands. For the better part of the last two decades, Egypt has allowed weapons and money to flow to Hamas. In a 2013 interview, Hamas’s Moussa Abu Marzouk said that former Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman helped the terrorist group and opposed any effort to dismantle it.
Egyptian security officials have looked the other way while Hamas and other Palestinian militants dug tunnels on the Egyptian-Gaza border. That gave Cairo the ability to use the situation in Gaza as a tool for regional influence and to ensure Egypt’s role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict would not be eclipsed by regional competitors such as Qatar and Turkey.
When Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi took power a decade ago, he didn’t have good relations with Hamas. For years, Sisi fought militants in Sinai who were backed by Hamas with military training, weapons, and even media relations. But Cairo’s relations with Hamas improved after 2017, when Hamas released an updated charter disassociating itself from the Muslim Brotherhood.
Some elements close to the Sisi regime have benefited from Hamas control over Gaza and the Rafah crossing. Media reports indicate an Egyptian company run by one of Sisi’s close allies is making hundreds of millions of dollars by taxing Gazans fleeing the current conflict.
Adding to its financial incentive, the Sisi regime views the Rafah crossing as a crucial card in preserving Cairo’s regional standing. Holding it increases Egypt’s relevance to countries that want to send aid to the Palestinians and ensures Washington stays quiet about Egypt’s gross human rights violations so it can maintain a stable flow of U.S. assistance and weaponry. Egypt’s control of the Rafah crossing also forces Israel to rely on Egypt to keep Gaza quiet, in exchange for which Israel lobbies on Sisi’s behalf in Washington.
There are serious fears in Cairo that if Palestinians move to Sinai, they won’t leave — and, worse, could then use Sinai as a staging ground for attacks on Israel. Elements in the regime view this issue as integral to its survival: Domestic opposition in Egypt could destabilize Sisi’s rule if it appears Sinai is being given to Palestinians. This is especially important after the security apparatus peddled conspiracy theories about former Egyptian President and Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Morsi giving Sinai to Palestinians.
While it may be hard for policymakers in Washington to come to terms with Egypt’s double game, it’s a painful conversation that must be had. No serious effort to turn the page on Hamas will yield the desired results without cutting this umbilical cord between the Sisi regime and Hamas.
Hence, the Biden administration should reconsider its naive acceptance of Egyptian concerns at face value. Moreover, the Biden administration should have pushed Egypt at the very least to accept women and children, to address fears of Palestinian militants spilling over to Sinai. Instead, the Biden administration allowed Arab governments working on behalf of Egypt to force the U.S. to stay clear of a critical solution to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.Strict monitoring of the Egyptian-Gaza border, either via Israel’s direct control or international troops, is a must for any successful effort to weaken Hamas. Otherwise, the whole Israeli effort will have been in vain, and Egyptian officials will simply go back to their old double game, juggling Hamas and Israel as the situation requires.
*Haisam Hassanein is an adjunct fellow at FDD, where he analyzes Arab-Israel relations.

Opinion: A military expert on why the US view on Israel’s fight against Hamas is a turning point for the world
Hilary Krieger, CNN/May 17, 2024
Since Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on October 7, military expert John Spencer has been carefully observing the Israel Defense Forces’ war against the terror organization, including on two trips he made to the Gaza Strip as an embed with the IDF over the winter.
Spencer tells CNN Opinion that he sees a military with the capability to rapidly eviscerate Hamas’ army being held back by the international community. He feels that the US bears some of the responsibility for the devastation in Gaza because of how it’s slowed down and limited Israel’s ability to win the war. It’s a restraint that he says the US hasn’t imposed on its own military campaigns, and it has the effect of increasing Palestinian casualties and suffering by dragging out the fighting.
Spencer makes these assessments after 25 years of service as an infantry soldier, including two combat tours in Iraq. He’s now the chair of urban warfare studies with the Modern War Institute at West Point, and his personal experience and research has been key to his perspective on Israel’s campaign and how it compares to American military operations.
The US pressure on Israel has come to a head in Rafah, the southern Gaza city believed to be Hamas’ last major stronghold and a key point for weapons smuggling across the Egyptian border. But the US is withholding some types of arms that it fears could be used by Israel in Rafah as part of a bid to prevent a major IDF offensive there, even as it is reportedly readying a significant sale of other weapons. The US is warning that a large-scale ground incursion is sure to cause more death and suffering among Gaza civilians, hundreds of thousands of whom have been taking refuge in the city.
Spencer argues that, by taking this approach, the US is inadvertently paving the way for a Hamas victory. “War is hell,” Spencer affirms. But, he notes, war is also deeply engrained in human nature. When democracies are attacked, as they inevitably will be, they must conduct wars in ways that quickly bring victory in order to achieve lasting peace.
The views in this commentary are Spencer’s, and they have been edited and condensed for clarity.
CNN: Do you think that Israel can defeat Hamas without conducting a ground invasion in Rafah?
Spencer: From October 8 on, there have been senior US officials signaling that a ground invasion wouldn’t achieve the goals of destroying Hamas, bringing the hostages home and securing the border. As a scholar of urban combat, I strongly disagree with that. The fact is that Rafah’s where the hostages and remaining Hamas military power and leadership are believed to be, their rockets and weapons production and other capabilities, everything. The IDF would have to go in on the ground because these things are deeply buried underground in the tunnels Hamas has built.
If Hamas survives in Rafah, they win. It doesn’t matter if they’ve been pushed into the smallest corner of Gaza. If the Hamas leadership survives, they’ve won the war, because they can say they attacked Israel and survived, and then they can rebuild, continue to fight off any other future governing force that would come in to Gaza and launch future attacks against Israel. Iran and its proxies would also have validated their strategy to attack Israel, weaken Israel’s position with its allies and then repeat.
CNN: The US previously endorsed the mission of defeating Hamas. Are you saying that the US is now conceding that Hamas can stay in Gaza — win the war, per your terms — because the cost, in terms of death and destruction to Palestinian civilians, is too high?
Spencer: They may not be saying that directly, but their actions don’t provide for a feasible alternative other than accepting that Hamas stays in power for now. This is a really big turning point in our history, I think in the history of who we are, Western societies that follow the rule of law, if we’re really saying Hamas can use human shields to survive because the costs are too much to achieve victory. The most likely way to continue the violence and the lack of peace in Israel and Palestine is to leave Hamas in power.
Of course, it’s difficult to see the path to peace from here, but I can tell you with strong certainty that the surest way to continue the violence in the Middle East is to let Hamas survive this war.
CNN: But even in parts of Gaza where Israel has gone in on the ground and cleared out Hamas, for instance in northern Gaza, you have seen that Hamas has regrouped and continued fighting. So doesn’t that raise some question marks about whether Israel can be successful against Hamas regardless of constraints the US places on it?
Spencer: No, for me, it doesn’t. If you’re going to measure whether Israel has had any success in its approach, you measure it against what Hamas was on October 7, not what it is now. The IDF’s approach, in my opinion, has been very effective at destroying Hamas as a military organization by every definition: the number of enemy formations broken and not able to reconstitute themselves as effective units to do their assigned mission like attack or defend, the amount of ground the enemy is controlling, the lower number of hostages they’re holding. The IDF does not need to kill every one of the 40,000-plus card-carrying Hamas members to succeed. It has to break its organized military formations, remove its capabilities and destroy its leadership.
The fact that there are still fractured Hamas entities in Northern Gaza is a clear warning that the day after is going to be very difficult because there’s still going to be a lot of fires left in the environment. I was part of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Once we destroyed enough of Iraq’s military capability, much of the military took off their uniforms and walked away before the US disbanded it. Later, they became part of the insurgency when things didn’t go well, of course, but it didn’t mean that we weren’t effective at taking the ruling power out or the military itself out.
CNN: Couldn’t Israel’s offensive still have the effect of creating more militants who are going to join Hamas and fight against Israel? Couldn’t it be counterproductive?
Spencer: It could. Absolutely. And this is where I agree with Gen. David Petraeus. Petraeus says you could be creating more terrorists 10 or 20 years later. In the now, of course, you have to destroy Hamas. But what you do the day after absolutely matters. The lack of success in Afghanistan wasn’t because of the war to remove the Taliban, but because the strategy that came after destroying the terrorists and their government structure didn’t provide a better outcome for Afghans. What Israel does the day after could ultimately mean that it loses a very long game against an ideology.
Wars create people who aren’t happy if their side loses, and that can actually radicalize them. But in the present when you face an existential threat or a world war, it isn’t a consideration. You have to destroy the other military who’s currently trying to hurt you in real time. Because this really gets into, I should just let that enemy force on my border keep attacking me because its population won’t agree with me destroying it.
A good comparison is Nazism. The US couldn’t worry about further radicalizing Germans during World War II. It had to prioritize defeating them. Afterward it could work to deradicalize them. Of course, the ideology of Nazism still lives on, because ideologies can’t be eradicated. But it has been defanged. That was only possible because first there was a military victory over the Nazi regime.
CNN: So you think this is a winnable war for the IDF?
Spencer: One hundred percent. But it’s also a very winnable war for Hamas at this point because wars are not determined just by military capability. They’re a battle of wills. And if Hamas can survive, it achieves its war strategy and has more political power than it did on October 7. Hamas will be viewed as the great actor who figured out a way to conduct a massive, brutal attack on Israel, survive and still achieve political victories, including weakening Israel’s alliances in the Western World, especially with the United States. Hamas would then use this added power to rebuild and attack as it tries to achieve its stated grand strategy — the destruction of Israel and the death of all Jewish people.
CNN: You’ve said elsewhere that the IDF has been successful at moving large numbers of Palestinian civilians out of harm’s way. But civilians have been killed trying to get away and they say they have nowhere safe to go. So how is it correct to say that Israel can be effective at moving civilians out of Rafah?
Spencer: Civilians have been put in harm’s way while evacuating because of Hamas. There has been combat near designated safe areas because of Hamas. The Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone was chosen because it was on the coastline away from the defenses Hamas has built in tunnels and urban areas, but Hamas still fired rockets from there and other humanitarian areas. So then people say there’s nowhere safe to go. This is the complexity of the challenge.
That the civilians don’t have somewhere completely safe to go, this is the history of war. And the fact is, Egypt said, I’m paraphrasing here, not on my watch will refugees from Gaza cross the border. It’s complicated, of course, why Egypt doesn’t want to let Palestinians even enter a humanitarian camp in the Sinai, and it includes its own history with Islamist terrorist groups, costs to the society and economy, and being seen as supportive of Israel’s objectives in the war in Gaza.
You can judge Israel for not allowing them to cross into southern Israel, but that’s a unique challenge because they are part of the enemy polity that just razed southern Israel and displaced the Israeli population there. If the enemy is conducting operations in the safe zone, like they do in hospitals and schools, and I hope we get to talk about that, the best you can do is to create as safe an area as possible for the civilians in the given context.
CNN: You said you wanted to talk about Hamas using hospitals and schools?
Spencer: Yes. It is a great example of good intentions leading to bad outcomes. It is of course the right thing to do to tell warring parties that hospitals should not be used in war, that they need to be protected. But that has driven combatants who do not follow the laws of war into every protected facility. Hamas took every law of war and reverse-engineered it to build an environment in which Hamas has occupied facilities because of their legal protections. So fighting an enemy that’s an avowed terror organization puts a conventional military at a big disadvantage, especially if the world is watching.
Hamas is the first combatant I’ve seen do this at an industrial level. The US military bombed complete hospitals to the ground because of battles against ISIS in hospitals. But what Hamas has done is engineered every protected site as a military facility because they knew not only would Israel have to restrict its use of force against those sites, but the world would condemn Israel for even thinking about going to those places. Of course, Israel doesn’t want to be considered on a par with Hamas by the international community, so predictably Hamas is trying to take advantage of that.
I used to say that Hamas built their tunnels underneath every school, UN facility and hospital, but what we’re finding out is that no, they also built their tunnels and then built the schools on top of them. It is literally a byproduct of our pursuit to protect that has put more people at risk.
CNN: How do you know that about Hamas’ construction under hospitals and the schools? There have been a lot of questions about the information the IDF has put out there and the numbers they use. So how can you be confidant about this information?
Spencer: I go into this trusting the IDF’s information more than I do Hamas’, but I have also been on the ground in Gaza during this war near mosques and schools with tunnels. I was with the IDF as they uncovered a tunnel running out of a mosque, for instance, and it’s been documented that Hamas uses mosques for storing weapons and other military purposes. So I’m relying on personal research as well as a belief in a law-abiding and very moral society and military.
CNN: You mentioned your participation in the Iraq war. How would you compare Israel’s conduct — whether it’s been upholding international law or committing war crimes — to the US fighting, say, al-Qaida in Afghanistan or ISIS in Mosul, Iraq?
Spencer: If you want to talk about the tactics to prevent civilian harm in war, the US military uses speed, force and overwhelming power. That’s what we did in Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, you name the war where we want to take out the power and destroy its military; we do it quickly so it doesn’t prolong the war. The problem is that the international community pushed Israel into this framework of going slower, going methodically, evacuating every area beforehand.
I can say with very strong confidence that Israel has done everything the US military has ever done in the history of urban combat and things that we’ve never done, implementing every civilian harm mitigation technique that has been developed in the last 30 years despite Hamas’ tactics.
CNN: There are people who say that, even if Israel is generally upholding the same standards for protecting civilians as the US, what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan were horrors and the US didn’t succeed in protecting civilians there. And so using that as the standard is giving Israel a pass for perpetrating its own horrors.
Spencer: War is hell, so I agree. People say, look at what’s being done. How can that be legal? And even if it is legal, it should stop. I’m saying, as a scholar of war in history, that war is hell. And that if you don’t move forward and finish the mission, you actually lead to much more human suffering than is the product of the war. This gets to almost a philosophy of war, that there should never be war, right? There should never be war, but that’s not the history of mankind.
I strongly want the laws of war upheld as a warrior. I want war contained. I do not want civilians targeted. There is no evidence that the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan ever targeted civilians, period, but have we done it in the past? Absolutely. Firebombing Tokyo, for instance. Our calculations about collateral damage are much different now, and we shouldn’t go back.
So I want the laws upheld, but the problem is that this is the really dangerous part of the accusations and perceptions and the byproduct of Israel’s war against Gaza: what it means to the future of democracies like the United States if in the next war — and God forbid if it’s a war of survival against some great power that has risen — we’re going to say there should be no civilian suffering. Had there been social media during World War II, we might not be living in the world we currently live in. The Japanese and Germans might have won if their democratic adversaries believed the cost of resisting them was too high to be worth it.
I think this is where people aren’t seeing the ramifications of what they’re saying about Israel. You have the camp saying, they’re not following the law, which is just not proven. Then you have the camp saying, I don’t care if they’re following the law or not, the human suffering is too much, they need to stop. I think what that means is, the cost is too much so you have to let Hamas win. And I’m saying that your very good intentions are going to lead to greater suffering. You are actually advocating for more war by trying to stop this war.
CNN: In a similar scenario, what do you think the United States would have done?
Spencer: I believe strongly it would’ve been an overwhelming, immediate response to end the war as quickly as possible, and to achieve those goals of bringing our people home, making the rockets stop and making sure it never happened again. The history of the United States, and the history of war shows that we would’ve responded overwhelmingly.
It would’ve caused an immense amount of destruction, and there would’ve been calculations on what is the value to protecting our nation. But I’m arguing that the approach the US has demanded for Israel’s war has prolonged and caused more destruction then if they had gone in with more overwhelming force and speed. And that is a risk with the more limited operation that the US might push Israel to conduct instead of a ground invasion of Rafah.
By going slowly, I can argue through history and through metrics, it gives your enemy more time to defend, more time to prevent your plans, more time to prevent you from achieving surprise. We, as in the world, are also responsible for some of the destruction that’s happened in Gaza.
CNN: How’s that?
Spencer: Because the world said to Israel at the beginning of the ground invasion, that what you’re doing, I don’t care if it’s legal or not, cannot continue. You got to find another way. The United States with its influence said, look, I know what you’re doing is achieving results, but you have to find a different way.
So the IDF shifted their tactics, they reduced the number of forces, they reduced the number of strikes on military targets, and they went more methodically and slowed down. They did more tactical pauses, they avoided more areas if they had any civilian population in them, and it became a very house-to-house, block-by-block, tunnel-by-tunnel fight, which has prolonged the war.
That has increased the humanitarian suffering and the strain on humanitarian supplies in Gaza. It has increased the duration of the violence and the continued existence of Hamas. So we are at fault for some of the destruction in Gaza because of that. We own some of the responsibility.