Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 09-10/2024
Text and video/Elias Bejjani: May 07, 2008 Barbaric Invasion of Beirut & Mount Lebanon/ Elias Bejjani/May 07/2024
Gallant says Israel open to diplomatic solution with Lebanon
Lebanon body puts Israeli bombardment damage at $1.5 bln
Diplomatic Source: French Initiative Helps Avoid Open War in South
Closed Meeting in Bkerke on Illegal Syrian Presence
Syrian Refugees: De Waele Evokes Repatriation Policy
Syrian Refugees: Geagea Announces Lebanese Sit-in in Brussels, May 27
LF MPs to UNHCR: Lebanon Is a Transit Country
Hezbollah attacks Israeli barracks after party members killed in drone strike
Israeli strike kills Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon group responds with drones
Lebanon: far-right group ‘Soldiers of God’ is exploiting the country’s unsettled past to stir sectarian tensions
UN food agency fears an escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border can cripple aid efforts in Lebanon
A Dar Al-Fatwa Complaint Against Comedian Shaden Fakih for Offending Islam
TikTok Rape Case: Twelve People Charged
Bassil says Hezbollah, Lebanon won't achieve anything by supporting Gaza
Can Resolution 1701 Be Revived and Implemented?/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 09/2024
Is Hezbollah working more closely with the Houthis?/Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/May 09/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 09-10/2024
Israel strikes eastern Rafah as ceasefire talks end with no deal
Israeli military operations in Rafah expand from airstrikes to ground operations, satellite images show
US hold on arms for Israel sends 'wrong message,' says Israeli envoy
Israel due to get billions of dollars more in US weapons despite Biden pause
Israel in the spotlight at the Eurovision semi-final
Netanyahu on US threat to withhold arms: Israel will fight with its 'fingernails' if needed
US warning on arms supplies prompts Israeli defiance, doubts
First shipment of aid to the US-built floating pier in Gaza departs from Cyprus
The Biden-Netanyahu relationship is strained like never before. Can the two leaders move forward?
Pro-Palestinian campus protests spread to UK universities
Zelenskiy dismisses head of state guard after two members accused of assassination plot
Houthis vow to widen attacks after targeting 3 cargo ships

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 09-10/2024
The Real Reason Hamas and Egypt Oppose Israel's Control of Rafah, the Only Border Out of Gaza/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./May 9, 2024
Replacing America/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 08/2024 |
As the world burns, Europe is out to lunch/Ross Anderson/Arab News/May 09, 2024
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?/Andrew G. Clemmensen/The Washington Institute/May 09/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 09-10/2024
Text and video/Elias Bejjani: May 07, 2008 Barbaric Invasion of Beirut & Mount Lebanon
 Elias Bejjani/May 07/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/118016/118016/
May 07, 2008 was a criminal day for murderers, invaders, mercenaries and barbarians serving the Iranian mullahs’ agenda. Criminals and mercenaries with evil hearts violated the sanctity of the city of Beirut, desecrated its sanctity, and assaulted its peaceful people, humiliating, displacing, torturing, killing and destroying. The 7th of May is a black day carried out by Hezbollah’s, Amal Movement, The Syrian National Party armed militias, along with all the mercenaries affiliated with the Syrian-Iranian axis of evil.
A criminal and barbaric invasion that was hailed by Michel Aoun, the Iscariot, and opportunist who only cares about his authoritarian delusions and his bank accounts. An invasion that made him president in 2016. Aoun during his presidency destroyed the state, and handed over its institutions and its decision making process to the terrorist Hezbollah .
May 07, is a day of crime that the people of Lebanon will not forget, because the blood of the innocent and defenceless was spilled at the hands of terrorist and mafia militias in service of the expansionist, colonial and terrorist agenda of the Iranian mullahs.
The 7th of May was the day of an ignorant and barbaric invasion that has not yet ended, while all its evil consequences are continuing with all criminality, barbarism, insolence, immorality and arrogance. Definitely it will not end until all the Lebanese, Iranian, Syrian and Palestinian militias are disarmed, Iranian mini-states of Hezbollah, Palestinian camps and Syrian camps are eliminated and put under the control of the Lebanese authorities.
May 07, in conclusion, was day of criminality, terrorism and devil worshipers. Meanwhile the time has come for all criminals who invaded Beirut and Mount Lebanon to be brought to justice. And because every oppressor has an end and retribution, no matter how long it takes, we say to the criminals and murderers, aloud with the Prophet Isaiah (01/33) : “Our enemies are doomed! They have robbed and betrayed, although no one has robbed them or betrayed them. But their time to rob and betray will end, and they themselves will become victims of robbery and treachery”.
In conclusion, and in order for the invasion of Beirut and the Mount Lebanon not to be repeated, The weapons of Hezbollah and the rest of the Lebanese and Palestinian militia weapons MUST be handed over to the Lebanese army. At the same time controlling all the mini illegitimate-states and end Hezbollah’s occupation of Lebanon. Liberation requires that all free Lebanese at home and in Diaspora alike immediately and urgently call on the UN Security Council to declare Lebanon a failed and rogue state, and implement all UN resolutions related to Lebanon, the armistice agreement with Israel, 1559, 1701, and 1680, then placing Lebanon under Chapter VII. And assigning the UNIFIL forces present in the south, full responsibility of securing all the necessary security and administrative measures to restore the state and rehabilitate the Lebanese to govern themselves.
May Almighty God safeguard Lebanon & its people.

Gallant says Israel open to diplomatic solution with Lebanon
Associated Press/May 09, 2024
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant as warned that a war with Hezbollah would have “a heavy cost for Israel and a catastrophic one for Hezbollah and Lebanon.”As he toured Israel’s northern border on Wednesday, Gallant said that while Israel was open to a diplomatic solution on the northern border, the army was also preparing for a possible military operation to allow citizens to return to their homes. Tens of thousands of civilians have been evacuated from Israel and southern Lebanon since the war began. A total of 15 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed in Israel by Lebanese launches. In Lebanon, more than 370 people have been killed by Israeli strikes, including more than 70 civilians and non-combatants.

Lebanon body puts Israeli bombardment damage at $1.5 bln
Agence France Presse/May 09/2024
Israeli bombardment of south Lebanon in seven months of cross-border hostilities with Hezbollah has caused more than $1.5 billion in damage, a Lebanese official said. Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah movement began attacking Israel in support of ally Hamas a day after the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel that sparked war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah has stepped up its attacks in recent weeks, while Israel's military has struck deeper into Lebanese territory, saying it has targeted fighters and "infrastructure" used by the Iran-backed group. Lebanon's Southern Council, an official body tasked with assessing the destruction, has estimated that since October 8, the cost of "damage to buildings and institutions stands at more than one billion dollars".Infrastructure, including water, electricity, roads and health services have also suffered damage estimated at around an additional $500 million, according to the figures provided by council chief Hashem Haidar on Wednesday. The information used to make the assessment was mostly gathered by "our teams on the ground", Haidar said. With the hostilities ongoing, the estimates do not include all the destruction in particularly hard-to-reach areas, where the council relies on "engineers and municipality chiefs and local officials" for information, he added. The Southern Council estimates that some 1,700 buildings have been completely destroyed, while around 14,000 have been damaged. Emergency personnel have reported huge damage and villages emptied of residents. The International Organization for Migration says more than 93,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, while Israel has evacuated tens of thousands of people from swathes of the country's north. Many journalists have been reluctant to travel to Lebanon's border areas due to the heavy bombardment, while damage to some roads makes reporting trips more difficult. The bombardment has also impacted farmland and livelihoods, with Lebanese authorities accusing Israel of using incendiary white phosphorus bombs that have triggered fires. Authorities are waiting for a ceasefire in order to better assess the damage, but potential compensation procedures remain vague in a country suffering a crushing four-year economic crisis. After Israel and Hezbollah fought a devastating war in 2006, Gulf countries and Iran helped with reconstruction efforts, and Lebanese officials in recent months have expressed hope for foreign support this time around as well. The cross-border violence has killed at least 390 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but also including more than 70 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israel says 13 soldiers and nine civilians have been killed on its side of the border.

Diplomatic Source: French Initiative Helps Avoid Open War in South
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
Lebanon has responded officially to the “modified” French initiative aimed at de-escalating violence on the southern front and eventually paving the way for a sustainable and durable settlement along the Lebanese-Israeli border. Reports that circulated in the media alleging that the initiative had been rejected by Hezbollah, a stance conveyed by the Speaker of Parliament and Hezbollah ally, Nabih Berri, were refuted as “unfounded” by a French diplomatic source in comments made to This is Beirut. “We are not conducting negotiations between the belligerents, what we are proposing is a process of consultations and taking the opinion of the two parties,” the source said. He pointed out that the French move has two main objectives, “firstly, showing the belligerents that a diplomatic solution is possible, and secondly, having an official response from the Lebanese government.”The Lebanese response included observations on the form, content, and structure of the document, which the source noted “are not in themselves negative.”“We’re pushing the Israeli government to make their observations in parallel, in order to end up with a functional paper for the day after the hostilities cease,” he said. He added that France is well aware that there will be no ceasefire in southern Lebanon before an end to hostilities in Gaza, but believes that its diplomatic action “has helped to avoid (an open) war, at least for the time being.”France’s efforts are closely coordinated with Washington, but the French approach is more dynamic, even if no outcome is expected before the end of the conflict in Gaza. “We’re going to try to reach as much consensus as possible on a formula that is none other than UN Resolution 1701, and to have it implemented in a more lasting and stable way than it was from 2006 to 2023,“ the source concluded.

Closed Meeting in Bkerke on Illegal Syrian Presence
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
A closed meeting, organized by the Maronite Center for Research and Documentation, and focusing on the illegal Syrian presence in Lebanon, was chaired on Thursday by Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai in Bkerke.
The meeting was attended by the caretaker Minister of Interior, Bassam Mawlawi, representing caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Army, General Joseph Aoun, as well as several ministers, MPs and representatives of the heads of the security services. Upon arrival to Bkerke, Mr. Mawlawi said that the Lebanese authorities are determined to find a solution to the Syrian refugee crisis. “We will not accept the illegal presence of Syrians,” he noted. He added that the measures enabling Lebanon to control Syrian presence on its soil will be applied, knowing that “some of them have already been applied in some areas.”The caretaker Minister of the Displaced, Issam Charafeddine, announced for his part that “a first convoy of 2,000 Syrian migrants will return to Syria next Tuesday,” indicating that it will be followed by “a second convoy a week later.” He also expressed his willingness to “travel to Damascus to discuss the issue of displaced persons with Syrian authorities, should (he) be officially entrusted with this mission.”Furthermore, the caretaker Minister of Education, Abbas Halabi, announced that he would present during the meeting “the challenges linked to the educational situation, in particular that of Syrian students.” He insisted on the need for “the Lebanese state as well as the security and military services to apply the legal measures” regarding the education of Syrian refugees and migrants.

Syrian Refugees: De Waele Evokes Repatriation Policy
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
Sandra De Waele, Ambassador of the European Union (EU) to Lebanon, said on Thursday that the €1 billion package announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is intended “to support Lebanon” until 2027. Speaking on Europe Day, De Waele elaborated on the purported aims of this financial support, which she said should “support the government in providing basic services to the most vulnerable people in the country,” in “key sectors such as social protection, health, water and education.” This not only includes Syrian refugees, but also many – and a growing number of – Lebanese who benefit from EU funded social assistance programs, affordable primary healthcare services, access to clean water or newly rehabilitated public schools,” she said. De Waele added that “already now, the large majority of this support benefits directly Lebanese citizens.”Turning to the question of the overwhelming presence of displaced Syrians in Lebanon, the EU ambassador said she was fully aware of the concerns that “the Lebanese are raising regarding the presence of such a large number of Syrians,” recognizing “the heavy burden this entails.” In this context, she affirmed the EU’s view that “the future of Syrians lies in Syria.”“The return of Syrians to Syria – in safety – remains the ultimate goal for all of us, and we hope to work together, in a constructive way, to make this a reality,” she argued. To achieve this goal, she said the EU will invest “more heavily in legal pathways for refugees, so they can find job opportunities in Europe,” asserting that the EU “continues resettling refugees from Lebanon to Europe, to help alleviate the burden,” they represent for Lebanon. In this context, De Waele announced future collaboration with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “to develop a more structured approach to voluntary returns to Syria.”At the same time, the Lebanese Army, General Security and Internal Security Forces will receive “the needed equipment and expertise to better manage Lebanon’s land and sea borders,” in the words of the ambassador. She added, however, that resolving this “crucial” issue will take time, especially as it “will require the cooperation of more parties, other than Lebanon and Europe.”

Syrian Refugees: Geagea Announces Lebanese Sit-in in Brussels, May 27
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has announced plans for a protest sit-in in Brussels on May 27, simultaneously with the international conference on Syria. During a televised interview on Thursday evening, Geagea criticized “the weakness of Lebanese authorities, particularly successive governments,” in managing the issue of the Syrian massive presence in Lebanon. Geagea reiterated that controlling this presence is a sovereigntist decision “which may be taken by what remains of the Lebanese State.” In this context, he pointed to the recent decision by the United Kingdom to deport any migrant found illegally residing on its soil to Rwanda, as an example. According to Geagea, Lebanese security services, especially General Security, “can immediately start enforcing Lebanese laws and repatriate Syrians residing illegally in the country.”He explained the staunch opposition to the European donation of one billion dollars, attributing it to fears of Syrians remaining in Lebanon. Geagea hinted that his party’s parliamentary bloc might break from its customary boycott and attend Wednesday’s session, “to understand the essence of this donation.” “We aim to understand what Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Union, conveyed to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati,” he said, noting that the decision to participate or not would be made during Monday’s bloc meeting. According to Geagea, Wednesday’s session “is not legislative,” and “the donation could be accepted if not conditioned.”
The FL leader announced plans for a popular sit-in in Brussels on May 27, coinciding with the international donors’ conference on Syria. He “called upon all Lebanese residents in Europe to participate in this protest” and noted that a memorandum detailing Lebanese remarks regarding the Syrian massive presence in the country would be presented to the participants. Lebanese officials will be at the meeting, and shall in particular plead for change in European policy towards the Syrian dossier. On a different note, the FL leader once again downplayed the importance of the inter-Christian gatherings in Bkerkeh, scheduled to resume on Friday, considering that they will not yield successful outcomes. These meetings, it should be noted, are intended to facilitate a kind of Christian consensus on issues such as the presidential election and illegal arms.

LF MPs to UNHCR: Lebanon Is a Transit Country
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
On Thursday, MPs of the Strong Republic Bloc (Lebanese Forces) presented a memorandum to the representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Beirut, emphasizing that “Lebanon is not a country of asylum, but a transit country,” citing the massive Syrian presence in Lebanon. During a meeting with the UNHCR representative, Ivo Friesen, at the UNHCR headquarters in Jnah, the MPs provided a detailed overview of the Lebanese Forces’ (FL) stance regarding the issue of the illegal Syrian presence in Lebanon. They called on the UNHCR to end all practices contradictory to the 2003 agreement protocol signed with Lebanon, especially any attempt at keeping Syrians in Lebanon illegally, in violation of the country’s laws. In fact, the agreement protocol established in 2003 between the General Security and the UNHCR is based on the principle that Lebanon is not a permanent country of asylum. The UNHCR is tasked with resettling refugees in third countries within a period of six months, with the option of a single exceptional renewal. Following the meeting, MP Pierre Bou Assi stated that they had discussed “a more pressing issue, namely the fate of Lebanon, its future, and the existence of the Lebanese nation in light of the massive presence of migrants,” whose numbers are equivalent to half of Lebanon’s population. Bou Assi asserted that it was time for Lebanon to take control of its future, “through a purely Lebanese sovereign decision.” He emphasized that the fate of the country should not be determined “by donors, UN organizations, displaced persons, and especially not by the Syrian regime, which is the root cause of this crisis.” In this context, he reiterated that the LF had previously called for an end to the financing of Syrian refugees.

Hezbollah attacks Israeli barracks after party members killed in drone strike
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arabia News/May 09, 2024
BEIRUT: Hezbollah launched several attacks on Israeli military targets across Lebanon’s border on Thursday after four of its members were killed in Israeli strikes, security sources said. Israeli drones on Thursday had struck a car in Bafliyeh, Tyre — 99 km from Beirut — that was transporting Hezbollah members. The group announced the death of two of its members, followed by a third who died from severe injuries. Although Bafliyeh is located south of the Litani Line, it has never been targeted over the past seven months, making the attack a violation of the rules of engagement. The town is located in a vital area, close to Tyre and surrounded by villages where UNIFIL forces operate. A security source said that four Israeli drones hovered over several towns in the vicinity of Tyre and chased a car on the Bafliyeh-Arzoun road.
The drones then fired several missiles at the vehicle, destroying it.
Lebanon’s civil defense rescue force said that its members extinguished a fire inside a car that Israeli drones had struck. It said that the bodies of the victims were pulled out of the car by the rescue force and transferred to hospital. Hezbollah announced the death of Ali Ahmad Hamza, born in 1958, from Debaal, southern Lebanon, as well as Ahmad Hassan Maatouk, born in 1989, from the Lebanese southern village of Sir Al-Gharbiyeh. It later confirmed the death of Hussein Ahmad Hamdan from Burj Al-Barajneh, located in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Hezbollah responded to the assassination by striking Israeli military sites, including destroying “technical systems” developed in the Israeli Ramia outpost. It also struck a new command center in the Natur settlement with artillery as well as a “group of soldiers in the Al-Jerdah site, killing and injuring them.” The escalation on the southern Lebanese front coincided with further Israeli threats of open war against Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said: “We will achieve our goals in the north and south. We will paralyze Hamas, destroy Hezbollah and achieve security.” Hezbollah struck Israeli military sites and settlements in the north with dozens of missiles on Wednesday evening after Gallant visited his army’s positions in the north. Gallant addressed the reserve forces of the 91st Division (affiliated with the Northern Command and responsible for the front with Lebanon, from Ras Naqoura to Mount Hermon) at the Branit Barracks.
The minister warned troops to be “prepared for a hot summer.”
Gallant said that Tel Aviv “is determined to return the residents of the northern areas that were evacuated amid the ongoing border confrontations with Hezbollah.”He added that “the mission is not accomplished” in the area. According to Israeli media, Hezbollah missiles “targeted the headquarters of the 91st Division” shortly after Gallant left. According to an Israeli statement, Gallant, during his visit, was briefed on “operations to adapt operational activities in confronting Hezbollah forces.” Hezbollah said in a statement that its members targeted the headquarters of the 91st Division in the Branit Barracks “with a heavy-caliber Burkan missile, causing a direct hit.”Israeli shelling and airstrikes on the border area on Wednesday night led to the killing of five members of Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad movement. Hezbollah mourned Hassan Mohammed Ismail (born in 1993) from Kfarkela in the south and Mustafa Ali Issa (born in 1988) from Dlafy in western Bekaa. Also on Thursday, the Lebanese branch of the Al-Quds Brigades — the military wing of the Islamic Jihad movement — mourned Mahmoud Mohammed Balawni, Ahmed Mohammed Halawa and Mohammed Hussein Joud from the Martyr Ali Al-Aswad Brigade — Syrian Square. Israeli threats emerged after Lebanon received warnings from European sources about the potential for escalation in southern Lebanon over the coming months. A political observer said that several Lebanese officials who visited Paris had conveyed warning messages regarding the situation. In Beirut, the parliamentary foreign affairs committee listened to a report from Human Rights Watch on documented Israeli attacks on civilians in Lebanon. MP Fadi Alame spoke of “war crimes committed, especially the deliberate shelling of journalists and the martyrdom of some, the use of white phosphorus in Gaza and Lebanon and the resulting damages, and the type of weapons used to kill paramedics.” He said: “The government submitted a report through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requesting the international court to conduct necessary investigations into violations and war crimes, and the foreign affairs committee is coordinating with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to ensure the effectiveness and speed of action. “This is Lebanon’s right to demand (compensation) for the damage incurred.”

Israeli strike kills Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon group responds with drones
Reuters/May 9, 2024
An Israeli airstrike on a car in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah fighters on Thursday, security sources said, and the group said it retaliated by launching explosive drones at a military base in northern Israel. Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, running in parallel to the seven-month-long war in Gaza, has been the most intense since 2006. Both sides stepped up their bombardments this week, fuelling concerns of a bigger war between the heavily-armed adversaries. In Thursday's incident, security sources told Reuters that four Hezbollah fighters were killed in an Israeli strike on a car in southern Lebanon. The civil defence said its rescue force had pulled four bodies out of a car that had been torched by an Israeli strike. Hezbollah said it responded to the killing by launching explosive drones at an Israeli military command in northern Israel. The Israeli military said it had identified several launches crossing from Lebanon. A number of hits in the area of Shlomi, a town near the border in the northwest corner of Israel, had caused a fire to break out. No injuries were reported, it said. The military said it had also intercepted two drones within Lebanese territory and carried out strikes on southern Lebanon, including against what it said was Hezbollah infrastructure. The exchanges of fire have uprooted tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border. In northern Israel, the displacement has prompted calls for firmer military action against Hezbollah. Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will cease fire when the Israeli offensive in Gaza stops, but that it is also ready to fight on if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Israel has used artillery, drones and warplanes against targets in southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah and other armed groups. Fighters in Lebanon have launched rockets and their own drones into northern Israel.

Lebanon: far-right group ‘Soldiers of God’ is exploiting the country’s unsettled past to stir sectarian tensions
Mohamad El Kari, PhD Candidate in the Department of War Studies, King's College London/The Conversation/ May 09/2024
Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel, Hezbollah and other armed groups in Lebanon have exchanged almost 5,000 attacks across the border. Lebanon is being pulled into a war it cannot afford. But the country’s weak state has little power against the militias that operate within its territory. A string of overlapping crises over the past decade, coupled with political paralysis and an economic depression that has crippled much of the state and fuelled poverty, has brought Lebanon to the verge of collapse. In Lebanon’s capital city, Beirut, the absence of state power has prompted some communities to take security matters into their own hands.In the Christian neighbourhood of Achrafieh in eastern Beirut, one neighbourhood watch initiative formed to reassure residents worried about crime has led to the formation of a private militia named Jnoud al-Rab (Soldiers of God). Soldiers of God is a far-right group made up primarily of young working-class men who see themselves as “guardian angels”, patrolling the streets at night to keep the community safe. Beirut is already witnessing a rise in self-securitisation in places under the influence and control of Hezbollah. The rise of Soldiers of God has raised fears that Achrafieh will join this trend, evoking parallels with the Lebanese civil war (1975–1990) when the state collapsed, militants controlled the streets, and Beirut was ideologically divided into the Christian east and Muslim west. When Soldiers of God goes out on patrol, it claims to do so in defence of Lebanon’s Christian lands against the “Islamist peril”, as well as “criminals” and “outsiders”.
In Lebanon, these “others” often refer to Syrian refugees. Lebanon hosts the largest number of refugees per capita and per square kilometre in the world. To the Soldiers of God, the “other” is any non-Christian, but particularly supporters of Hezbollah and its Shia Muslim political partner the Amal Movement. Lebanon’s parliamentary speaker and major figure in the country’s political establishment, Nabih Berri, has led the Amal Movement since 1980. Although Lebanon’s civil war officially ended in 1990, sectarian and political divides remain. In October 2021, members of the Lebanese Forces party clashed with Hezbollah and Amal supporters in Beirut, resulting in the deaths of at least six people. The Lebanese Forces, which was established in 1976 as the country descended into civil war, is an anti-Hezbollah Christian political party and has the largest bloc in Lebanon’s 128-member parliament.
Soldiers of God had played a partial role in stoking up sectarian fears and prejudices beforehand. Investigations by army intelligence showed that members of the group wrote religious slogans and drew crosses in a number of Beirut’s Christian neighbourhoods the night before the fighting broke out.
The growing polarisation in Lebanon has much to do with Hezbollah’s “offensive” war with Israel. According to Soldiers of God, it’s not just the welfare of Lebanon’s Christian neighbourhoods that Hezbollah is putting at stake by opening a front with Israel, it’s the welfare of the entire country.
In January 2024, Soldiers of God took over flight screens at Beirut’s Rafic Al-Hariri Airport to assert its position as the defender of Lebanon. It displayed a message warning Hezbollah’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, against entering into a war with Israel. The message said:
In the name of God and the people. Rafic Al-Hariri airport doesn’t belong to Iran or Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah, you won’t find support if you curse Lebanon with a war you can’t handle. We will not fight on behalf of anyone. You took away our port now you will take away the airport because of your weapon transfer. Let the airport be free of you. Since then, the divide between Lebanon’s Christian and Shia communities has grown even further, culminating in the killing of Pascal Suleiman, a senior figure in the Lebanese Forces party, on April 7.
Enforcing division
The rise of Soldiers of God is reminiscent of darker times in Lebanon’s history, when militias enforced sectarian, territorial divisions. In December 2022, young men on motorcycles carrying Moroccan flags were beaten in the Achrafieh area by members of Soldiers of God. The men were celebrating the Moroccan national football team’s historic qualification for the Fifa World Cup semi-finals in Qatar. They were mistaken for members of Hezbollah and Amal as they travelled from west Beirut, a Muslim-dominated neighbourhood. The group also employs violence against those it claims are threatening traditional Lebanese values and customs. A few months earlier, in June 2022, the group vandalised a billboard in Achrafieh that had been decorated with flowers and a rainbow flag to celebrate Pride month. Later that day, Soldiers of God posted a video online accusing the LGBTQ+ community of promoting satanism and posing a danger to their children. And in August 2023, members of the group also attacked a LGBTQ+ friendly bar in Beirut, disrupting a drag show and trapping people inside the bar while chanting homophobic slurs. There is a real concern of increasing violence, even more so because Soldiers of God does not stand on its own. The group has a reported annual budget of £260,000 and is closely tied to, and financed by, former warlords and militias who participated in the Lebanese civil war. Soldiers of God is playing on divisions in Lebanese society to promote its cause. What the future holds for Lebanon is uncertain, but the declining presence and capacity of the state has paved the way for sectarian conflict to return as armed groups take security matters into their own hands.
This research was carried out as part of the XCEPT programme, which is funded by UK International Development from the UK government. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.

UN food agency fears an escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border can cripple aid efforts in Lebanon
KAREEM CHEHAYEB/Associated Press/May 09/2024
If the monthslong conflict playing out on the Lebanese-Israeli border continues to escalate, the United Nations food agency won't be ready for the spike in nutritional needs across crisis-hit Lebanon, its deputy executive director said Wednesday. Clashes between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israeli forces began on Oct. 8, a day after Israel started bombarding the Gaza Strip following Hamas’ deadly rampage in southern Israel, and the tensions between the two sides continue to intensify. “So far we’ve been able to manage based on the existing resources we have,” UN World Food Program’s Carl Skau, who is on a brief visit to the small Mediterranean nation, told The Associated Press. The WFP provides aid to over 158,000 people in Lebanon affected by the hostilities, including 93,000 displaced from their homes. But the agency does not have the funding to address the growing humanitarian needs “should the situation further escalate and further deteriorate,” Skau said. Given donor fatigue and shrinking international aid budgets, it isn't clear where the additional funding can come from. Skau toured a WFP warehouse stocking food rations in the northern Beirut suburb of Dekwaneh, built during the COVID-19 pandemic when Lebanon’s economy began to spiral, allowing the agency to stockpile some supplies. With the current situation, the UN agency fears those supplies could drain quickly with no backup plan. Lebanon has also been suffering from a crippling economic crisis since 2019. Additionally, the country of about 6 million people is hosting more than 1 million refugees from neighboring Syria. Food inflation in Lebanon is among the worst worldwide, which Skau said is incomparable except with “maybe Zimbabwe or Argentina.”The conflict on the border is fueling further concern.
What started as strikes limited to a handful of towns along the border has since spiraled, sparking fear of a regional war. Israeli jets continue to strike deeper into Lebanon, while Hezbollah, a Hamas ally, strikes Israel more frequently with rockets and explosive drones. Israeli strikes have killed more than 370 people in Lebanon over the past seven months, and while most were fighters with Hezbollah and allied groups, more than 70 civilians and non-combatants were also left dead. Strikes launched from Lebanon have killed at least 14 soldiers and 10 civilians in Israel. Top officials from the World Bank also visited Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday to check on a couple of projects the agency is funding, including a cash assistance program in collaboration with the WFP that provides aid to about 100,000 vulnerable families in the country. The World Bank’s Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde, said the financial institution is working to address the “prolonged and severe economic and financial crisis which has increased poverty in the country.”Skau also said he wants to find ways to scale up such assistance programs, but “funding is coming down.” “We estimated about 25 percent of the Lebanese and refugees are acutely food insecure, and we assisted some 2.5 million people last year,” he said.“This year we’re estimating that we’ll be able to support maybe 1.5 million.”

A Dar Al-Fatwa Complaint Against Comedian Shaden Fakih for Offending Islam
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
In a country that prides itself on being high on democracy, freedom of expression has never been so suppressed. Thursday, comedian Shaden Fakih, from awk.word comedy club, was the target of religious authorities. Acting on instructions from the Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abdellatif Derian, Dar al-Fatwa filed a complaint against the comedian for “offending Islam,” “the Prophet Muhammad, and “national unity,” as well as for “inciting religious and communal discord.”The reason behind this legal action pertains to a video clip that was widely shared on social media Wednesday, in which Shaden Fakih jested about Islamic and Christian prayer rituals. This clip, which was taken from a performance by the comedian at awk.word, sparked public outrage in Tripoli. A sit-in was staged at al-Nour Square, during which she was asked to face the consequences of her actions. The Karama Movement (led by MP Faysal Karameh) has also urged the competent authorities to condemn “this insult against Islam and the Prophet” and to “impose the severest penalties” on the comedian. Shaden Fakih’s case is not an isolated incident. Last August, Nour Hajjar, also a comedian at awk.word, was briefly detained due to a video dating back to 2018, in which he humorously recounted his mother’s demeanor during a condolence visit.

TikTok Rape Case: Twelve People Charged
This Is Beirut/May 09/2024
Judge Tanios Saghbini, Public Prosecutor at the Court of Appeal in Mount Lebanon, has initiated proceedings against twelve individuals – five of whom have already been arrested – on charges of involvement in the TikTok pedophile network. These include Georges Moubayyed, a hairdresser who has already been apprehended, and Paul Meouchi, owner of a clothing store. Nicknamed Jay, he lives in Sweden. Judge Saghbini referred the defendants to the first investigating judge in Mount Lebanon, Nicolas Mansour, who was asked to interrogate them and issue arrest warrants against them. He also asked him to circulate these arrest warrants to Interpol, and to send two letters rogatory via this organization to two Arab and European countries where Peter Nafaa and Meouchi, the accused, could be found. Magistrate Saghbini accuses the defendants of having “formed a criminal network for human trafficking and money laundering and of having solicited children, via social networks, mainly TikTok, for sexual purposes.” In the text sent to the examining magistrate, Saghbini points out that “the members of this network forced minors to take drugs before raping them, taking photos of them nude and selling these photos.” They even “tried to kill some of the children by resorting to violent, life-threatening practices.”According to judicial sources, Saghbini subdivided the case. Thus, proceedings have been brought against those who have already undergone preliminary questioning. In the next few hours, he is expected to initiate proceedings against the other members of the network, once he has finished questioning them. These include the lawyer Khaled M., Hassan Singer, who is abroad, and the cab driver who transported the children to the chalets where they were raped.

Bassil says Hezbollah, Lebanon won't achieve anything by supporting Gaza
Naharnet/May 09/2024 
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has noted that “it’s not Hezbollah that will decide the end of the war in Lebanon and the south, but rather Israel and Hamas, which are negotiating.”“Hezbollah considers that it is achieving something by assisting Gaza, but we do not agree to this,” Bassil added, in an interview on RT Arabic. “Lebanon will not achieve objectives from this war in terms of recovering Lebanese rights. It is rather paying its price every day in destruction and ruin,” Bassil lamented. He added that a delineation of the land border between Lebanon and Israel would not be an “achievement,” seeing as “it could have been achieved diplomatically without resorting to war.”Noting that “Israel will be defeated should it launch an attack on Lebanon,” Bassil added that the FPM’s stance “on participation in the liberation of Jerusalem should not bother Hezbollah in particular,” seeing as Lebanon’s “responsibility in liberating Jerusalem was not mentioned in the (2006) memorandum of understanding.”

Can Resolution 1701 Be Revived and Implemented?
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 09/2024
Because nothing is more important than warding off the imminent threat to Lebanon, preventing its annihilation, and protecting the lives of its people, UN Resolution 1701, which created a bulwark protecting the country after the 2006 war, has been rediscovered. Is it still a lifeline that can save the Lebanese who fear a devastating war that goes beyond the mini-war on the border towns that have been razed to the ground? How can we approach this UN Resolution after it has been hollowed out? Can we go back to it and consequently implement its provisions?
The plan to evacuate East Rafah began on Monday. Israel decided to launch a ground assault on the city that had become home to two-thirds of Gaza's population ... and to violate the Camp David Agreement by crossing the Philadelphi Corridor and taking control of the Rafah crossing. Together, these actions ensured that the ceasefire proposal, which Netanyahu called a “defeat for Israel and a victory for Hamas and Iran” would not succeed. Since then, the countdown for Israel’s instigation of a major battle on the northern front has been accelerating. Tel Aviv is in control of this front. It has the initiative and will choose the timing and scope of the hostilities after its intelligence has deeply penetrated the country.
This war on Rafah is presented as an effort to root out Hamas and destroy its capabilities. In reality, it is an extension of the systematic campaign to destroy the infrastructure of the Gaza Strip, broaden the genocide, and starve and displace the Gazans. It's part of a project to seize territory, impose a security belt to protect the settlements, isolate the north, and remove Palestinians. With regard to the day after, Israel is concerned with preventing another 'October 7' by removing Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Israel believes in the illusion of a security solution ensuring the safety of settlers returning to their settlements around Gaza.
With the ceasefire in Gaza thwarted and the assault on Rafah beginning, and after the failure of the French initiative for Lebanon, the risk of expansion has increased. Tel Aviv announced that northern settlements will be able to return to their homes before the start of the school year, signaling that the coming months will be heated. The message conveyed to Najib Mikati and Nabih Berri, Hezbollah’s mailbox, affirmed that our fate at the mercy of Hezbollah militia, which has turned the South into an arena for 'distracting' Israel, increases the likelihood of a severe military campaign on Lebanon. The proposals and initiatives called for a solution to be implemented in stages. First, Hezbollah would reposition 5 to 8 kilometers away from the Blue Line. Next, those who have been displaced on both sides of the border are allowed to return. In the final stage, the border disputes that have been pending since the year 2000 are to be resolved, with the army reinforcing its presence in the region and supported by UNIFIL. Essentially, the Lebanese were told that they should forget about the promise of security based on the illusion of “rules of engagement,” and that they must address the matter of Hezbollah’s weapons internally".
"Withdrawal” and “redeployment” are the keys to addressing the situation through UN Resolution 1701. These proposals are linked to what happened on October 8, 2023. Hezbollah opened a front in the South, walking back on its commitment to the first phase of the Resolution, the “cessation of hostilities.” Lebanon is far from the final stage: a “total ceasefire” and establishing sovereignty through the Armed forces and UNIFIL. This did not surprise the Israeli entity, which has persistently breached the agreement since it was signed. It did not surprise the United Nations Security Council either. Indeed, it has issued reports on Israel’s breaches, Hezbollah’s actions and the tunnels discovered years ago!
All parties colluded in the dangerous step of ignoring the non-implementation of the Resolution. It started on the day Beirut was occupied on May 7, 2008, which was followed by the heretical agreement reached in Doha: the “army, people, and resistance” equation being included in every ministerial statement since 2008! Afterward, Hezbollah saw this equation as legitimizing its arms. There were no serious objections on the basis of Article 8 of UN Resolution 1701, which calls for: the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani River of an area free of any armed personnel, assets, and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL. More dangerously, perhaps, this coincided with Hezbollah's hijacking of the state, along with the systematic undermining of the legitimate military forces, which became incapable of implementing the Resolution:
1- Internal disturbances forced the Lebanese army to withdraw its forces from the South, reducing the number of army troops in the area from 15,000 to less than 5,000.
2- The army has been struggling for a while now, since the decision to end mandatory military service was taken. Volunteers have not filled the vacancies left by those who left, and not enough was done to address the issue. The country’s economic collapse reduced its military budget, leaving the army leadership in an unenviable position. It began with begging for meals and ended with limitations on covering the transportation of military personnel to their barracks, forcing the leadership to reduce the number of tasks it assigned!
3- Visitors to Lebanon, as well as the Rome Conference and the Elysee meeting, showed a willingness to support the army by covering the costs of recruitment, training, military, and logistical capabilities. However, reality drew red lines, preventing a shift that links the restoration of stability and security in the South to the army. It's a dead-end because Hezbollah makes the political decisions. Thus, the army has struggled to recruit soldiers, and the priority will remain to secure food and find ways to augment pay to prevent a collapse! Let us not kid ourselves, Hezbollah will take the steps needed to implement the UN Resolution. Indeed, ignited the southern front without consulting anyone, paying no mind to the rhetorical objections of the spoil-sharing regime.
Hezbollah is not bothered by the claim that it is implementing an Iranian agenda regardless of the consequences, or that it is taking us back to the days of Fatah Land. Indeed, it is ready to fight for the Vilayat-e-Faqih. It has done so for years in defense of the Syrian regime, and it considers the war in Yemen to be its most honorable! In fact, it sees the South as nothing more than another frontline in a geo-political struggle over the region. Contrary to what is said, Hezbollah is waiting for a deal it will exploit to reinforce its domestic control.
This catastrophic state of affairs demands that the “October revolutionaries” and everyone else who is serious about Lebanon’s independence develop a broader vision. They must develop a project for a settlement that restores trust and exposes the negligence and collusion of the state, liberating citizens from the impasse and reversing the course the country is now on. They must set Lebanon on course for the crystallization of an alternative project that begins with forming a 'historic bloc' that corrects the national imbalance and allows for the reconstitution of the Lebanese authorities!

Is Hezbollah working more closely with the Houthis?
Seth J. Frantzman/The Jerusalem Post/May 09/2024
Hezbollah now plays a greater role in deciding where the Houthis allocate funds.
A report in Al-Ain media in the UAE claimed to reveal an interesting development in Yemen. According to the report, Hezbollah has “confiscated” funds in Yemen from the Houthis and is playing a role in that country. The report leaves many questions and is impossible to confirm, but it likely exposes some details that are worth analyzing.First of all, it reflects concern in the UAE and the Gulf about the Houthis’ increased ties to Iran and other Iranian proxies and that the Houthis are being operationalized to do proxy work for Iran. Iran has been actively backing the Houthis in their war on Saudi Arabia since 2015, when Saudi Arabia and other countries intervened in Yemen to prevent the Houthis from taking Aden. There has been a ceasefire in Yemen since 2022, and Saudi Arabia and the Houthis appeared to be on track toward peace because, with China’s backing, Riyadh and Tehran were patching things up. Now the Houthis have directed resources toward joining Hamas in the war against Israel. The Houthis are playing their role by attacking ships. This raises concerns about how Iran may use the Houthis in the future.
Behind ‘Abu Radwan’
The Al-Ain report says the news organization has learned that the Houthi militias received “directives from Hezbollah to allocate the largest portion of the financial revenues it earns from the Yemeni governorates in the north to military operations and military industrialization.” Hezbollah in Lebanon apparently now supervises some of what the Houthis are doing and works as a “mastermind” behind operations. “The sources revealed that Hezbollah addressed the militia leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, by transferring the process of managing the financial resources that the Houthi militias earn from revenues, royalties and taxes from areas under their control to a special committee headed by one of Hezbollah’s experts present in Sanaa, whose nickname is ‘Abu Radwan.’”The name Abu Radwan, if it’s not a made-up name, is possibly linked to Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, which is portrayed as the group’s elite unit. The Radwan Force takes its name from the late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, who was known as al-Hajj Radwan. This was his “war name” or nom de guerre. The fact that a mysterious man in Yemen who is linked to Hezbollah has taken on the name Abu Radwan is entirely plausible, but it’s only plausible in the context of knowing who the original Hajj Radwan was and what is meant by Radwan in the Hezbollah lingo. The article claims that Abu Radwan in Yemen is now “supervising the revenues of the communications and internet sector under the control of the Houthis.” Not only that, but he has done this for years, and he was linked to Hezbollah for years. He is “directly linked to the leadership of Hezbollah and experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to finance military activities and arming the militias.” Hezbollah now plays a greater role in deciding where the Houthis allocate funds. Hezbollah now contributes to a committee that determines the allocation of financial resources and “how the process of military spending and armament will be carried out.” There is some kind of cheeky irony in this story because, according to the article, the source said that the goal of Hezbollah in Sinai is to kind of put the Houthi leadership on a diet of finances, “ending the extensive financial privileges enjoyed by the Houthi leadership, including military and security, drying up corruption, transferring funds for the benefit of military operations, and preparing for any future developments.”
In essence, Hezbollah has been brought in to bring some austerity here and clean up the Houthi books. The Houthis are like one of those large corporations seen in Office Space, where an efficiency expert asks, “What exactly do you do here”? At the same time, it appears that Hezbollah has sought to squeeze the populace by sending taskmasters out to farm more money for the bosses in Sanaa. “The sources confirmed that Hezbollah asked the Houthi militias to intensify the financial collection process and raise the rates of customs, taxes, port fees and communications costs by no less than 40% during the coming months until the end of the current year.”
AND IT gets worse, if you’re a Yemeni who thought peace might bring a peace dividend. It turns out Hezbollah wants a 70/30 split in terms of where the money goes: 70% for guns and only 30% for food. This “guns or butter” equation is not in favor of what is good for Yemen. However, the article reveals the reason for this squeeze. It turns out that the Houthis are not getting so much money from Iraq or Iran, or perhaps Hezbollah is not getting so much from Iraq and Iran. A new “council of experts” has been formed in Sana’a, which has been “granted absolute powers for military and security decisions, controlling even the civilian sector, carrying out bombing or targeting operations inside and outside Yemen’s borders, and even naval attacks against cargo ships.”According to the report, this council is now in charge of military operations, and the Houthi defense ministry has been sidelined. If true, it points to Iran’s IRGC outsourcing some operations in Yemen to Hezbollah. It’s not the first time that reports mention Iran’s IRGC playing a role in overseeing Houthi actions, but it is the first time that Hezbollah’s part has appeared so prominent. It is also known that in early October, after Hamas’s attack, the Houthis created a “joint operations room” to coordinate with the rest of the Iranian axis to threaten Israel. Now it seems it has grown into this “council” and taxation committee.If the report is accurate, then it spells more trouble in the region as Hezbollah grows in its role within the Iranian hierarchy.
**Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 09-10/2024
Israel strikes eastern Rafah as ceasefire talks end with no deal
Reuters/09 May 2024
CAIRO/RAFAH/WASHINGTON: Israeli tanks and warplanes bombarded areas of Rafah on Thursday, Palestinian residents said, after President Joe Biden said the United States would withhold weapons from Israel if its forces mount a major invasion of the southern Gaza city. A senior Israeli official said that the latest round of indirect negotiations in Cairo to halt hostilities had ended and Israel would proceed with its operation in Rafah and other parts of the Gaza Strip as planned. Israel has submitted to mediators its reservations about a Hamas proposal for a hostage release deal and the Israeli delegation was returning from the Egyptian capital, the official added. In Gaza, Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad said their fighters fired anti-tank rockets and mortars at Israeli tanks massed on the eastern outskirts of the city. Residents and medics in Rafah, the biggest urban area in Gaza not yet overrun by Israeli ground forces, said an Israeli attack by a mosque killed at least three people and wounded others in the eastern Brazil neighborhood. Video footage from the scene showed the minaret lying in the rubble, two bodies wrapped in blankets and a wounded man being carried away.
On the city’s eastern edge, residents said a helicopter opened fire, while drones hovered above houses in several areas, some close to rooftops. Israel says Hamas militants are hiding in Rafah, where the population has been swelled by hundreds of thousands of Gazans seeking refuge from bombardments elsewhere in the coastal enclave, and it needs to eliminate them for its own security. One of the displaced, Mohammad Abder-Rahman, said he feared the Israeli bombardments presaged an invasion of the city. “It reminds me of what happened before Israeli tanks stormed our residential areas in Gaza City, heavy bombardment usually allows tanks to roll toward places they intend to invade,” the 42-year-old told Reuters via a messaging app. Ceasefire talks in Egypt’s capital made some headway but no deal was reached, according to two Egyptian security sources. The Hamas delegation left for Doha for consultations, blaming Israel for the lack of agreement so far. Israel has said it is open to a truce, but has rejected demands for an end to the war as it has vowed to demolish Hamas. Biden, who says Israel has not produced a convincing plan to safeguard civilians in Rafah, issued his starkest warning yet against a full ground invasion. “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah, ... I’m not supplying the weapons,” Biden told CNN in an interview on Wednesday. Israel’s assault on Gaza has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians and wounded nearly 80,000, most of them civilians, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said. It launched its offensive in response to a cross-border attack by Hamas militants on Israel on Oct. 7 in which they killed about 1,200 people and abducted 252. Some 128 hostages remain in Gaza and 36 have been declared dead, according to the latest Israeli figures.
80,000 PALESTINIANS FLEE AGAIN THIS WEEK
On Tuesday, Israeli tanks seized the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday, cutting off a vital aid route and forcing 80,000 people to flee the city this week, according to the United Nations. “The toll on these families is unbearable. Nowhere is safe,” the UN agency for Palestinian refugees said in a post on X. An Israeli military statement on Gaza operations on Thursday morning did not refer to Rafah. The United States is by far the biggest supplier of weapons to Israel, and it accelerated deliveries after the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 that triggered Israel’s offensive in Gaza. Biden acknowledged that US bombs have killed Palestinian civilians in the seven-month-old offensive. US officials have said Washington paused delivery of a shipment of 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs to Israel because of the risk to civilians in Gaza. Israel’s United Nations ambassador Gilad Erdan said the US decision to pause some weapons deliveries to Israel would significantly impair the country’s ability to neutralize Hamas’ power, according to Israeli public radio. But Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israel’s “enemies and friends” it would do whatever necessary achieve its war aims in Gaza, underlining the scale of the standoff. Israel kept up tank and aerial strikes across Gaza and tanks advanced in the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City in the north, forcing hundreds of families to flee, residents said. The Israeli military said it was securing Zeitoun, starting with a series of intelligence-based aerial strikes on approximately 25 “terror targets.” Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza was heaving with people who had fled Rafah in recent days. Palestinian medics said two people, including a woman, were killed when a drone fired a missile at a group of people there.
CIA DIRECTOR SHUTTLES BETWEEN JERUSALEM AND CAIRO
In Cairo, delegations from Hamas, Israel, the US, Egypt and Qatar had been meeting since Tuesday. CIA Director William Burns has shuttled between Cairo and Jerusalem, meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday. Izzat El-Risheq, a member of Hamas’ political office in Qatar, said the Hamas delegation had left Cairo, having reaffirmed its approval the mediators’ ceasefire proposal. The plan entails the release of Israeli hostages held captive in Gaza and a number of Palestinians jailed by Israel.
MEDICAL SECTOR COLLAPSED
The closure of the Rafah crossing with Egypt has prevented the evacuation of the wounded and sick and the entry of medical supplies, food trucks and fuel needed to operate hospitals, the Gaza health ministry said on Thursday. The only kidney dialysis center in the Rafah area had stopped operating due to the shelling.“There used to be medical aid coming in, and now there is no medical aid,” said Ali Abu Khurma, a Jordanian surgeon volunteering at Al Aqsa hospital in Deir Al-Balah. “The entire medical sector has collapsed.”

Israeli military operations in Rafah expand from airstrikes to ground operations, satellite images show
Paul P. Murphy, Abeer Salman and Andrew Raine, CNN/May 9, 2024
Israel’s attack in the southern Gaza city of Rafah has expanded from airstrikes to ground operations, new satellite images obtained by CNN from Planet Labs show. The images, which bear a striking resemblance to the early stages of Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza last year, show the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are active outside of the immediate border crossing area between Egypt and Gaza, which Israel took control of on Monday evening. The images, which span from May 5 to 7, suggest some buildings have been bulldozed and show what appear to be mustering areas for IDF vehicles. Some of the IDF forces have penetrated more than a mile inside the Palestinian enclave from the Rafah crossing gate, the images also show. The build-up comes despite intense international pressure on Israel not to move in on Rafah. On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden for the first time said he would halt some shipments of American weapons should Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu order a major invasion of the city. These Israeli ground operations follow a series of airstrikes on Rafah that have completely destroyed several buildings in the past 24 hours, and killed at least four people, according to a local hospital. Satellite images suggest these strikes are continuing, with one picture showing smoke still rising from one location. People could be seen running through the streets of Rafah in the aftermath of a strike on Wednesday in other footage obtained by CNN. Several carried children in their arms, some apparently bleeding and unconscious, towards Al Kuwaiti hospital.CNN footage also showed panicked children arriving in ambulances without their parents and one barely responsive child with a heavily bandaged arm being carried on a stretcher. Two body bags were also visible outside the hospital. Four people were killed and around two dozen injured by Israeli airstrikes in the Tal Al Sultan neighborhood in western Rafah on Wednesday, the hospital said.CNN has reached out to the Israeli military for comment on the incident.
Tell-tale signs
Rafah has become the central focus of Israel’s war in Gaza, as Netanyahu faces growing pressure from the extreme wing of his coalition to launch a full-scale ground operation in the city to destroy Hamas, while the more moderate wing has urged him to prioritize securing a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. During nearly seven months of war, more than 1 million Palestinians have fled to Rafah, where Hamas is believed to have regrouped after Israel’s destruction of much of the strip’s north. Gazans began fleeing the densely populated city on Monday after Israel’s military issued a call for residents in the east of Rafah to “evacuate immediately.”In the satellite images, some areas in Rafah show the tell-tale signs of being razed by bulldozers and other heavy machinery – vehicle tracks and large swaths of disturbed earth. The new operations shown by the satellite images resemble the initial ground invasion of Gaza back in October 2023, and in other parts of the enclave since then: When the IDF moved into northern Gaza, it carried out a series of airstrikes shortly before moving ground forces in. Once IDF ground forces did move in, armored bulldozers worked with tanks and other military vehicles to bulldoze and raze buildings. The IDF said in a statement on Wednesday that it was conducting a “precise counterterrorism operation in specific areas of eastern Rafah,” which included “targeted raids.” It also claimed to have “eliminated terrorists and uncovered terrorist infrastructure, as well as underground shafts in several locations in the eastern Rafah area.”The IDF has released footage of its 401st Brigade Combat team conducting “operational raids on suspicious buildings” near to where it said its soldiers had been fired on by Hamas militants. The IDF said that during the operation it “eliminated about 30 terrorists and destroyed large amounts of terrorist infrastructure in the region.”CNN previously confirmed through hospital sources in Rafah that at least 35 people had died in Rafah since Monday evening, including seven women and nine children. More than 34,600 people have been killed in Gaza since October, according to Palestinian authorities in Gaza. Aid agencies have been warning Israel against launching a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah, saying “any ground operation would mean more suffering and death” for the 1.2 million displaced Palestinians sheltering in and around the city, OCHA spokesperson Jens Laerke told journalists in Geneva. Northern Gaza is already experiencing a “full-blown famine” which is rapidly spreading across the strip, the World Food Programme warned over the weekend.

US hold on arms for Israel sends 'wrong message,' says Israeli envoy
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Jonathan Landay and Arshad Mohammed/May 9, 2024
It was "unacceptable" that the U.S. decision to withhold some weapons from Israel became public while the two governments still were discussing Israel's planned offensive into the Gaza city of Rafah, the Israeli envoy to Washington said on Thursday. The U.S. pause on some arms supplies to Israel "sends the wrong message to Hamas and to our enemies in the region," Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog told a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar a day after U.S. President Joe Biden warned Israel for the first time that Washington would withhold weapons if Israeli forces launch a major offensive into Rafah. Biden's comments in a CNN interview were his strongest public warning to date in his effort to deter an Israeli assault on Rafah. They underscored a growing rift between the U.S. and its strongest ally in the Middle East. Billions of dollars worth of U.S. weaponry remains in the pipeline for Israel, despite the delay of one shipment of bombs and a review of others because of U.S. concerns their use in Rafah could wreak more devastation on Palestinian civilians. The U.S. has said it has not seen an Israeli plan to protect the estimated 1.4 million Palestinian civilians in Rafah, most of them displaced by fighting from other parts of the devastated Gaza Strip. Herzog said Israeli officials had been discussing a Rafah operation for weeks with U.S. officials "and we told them point blank that we're not going to move automatically into the urban area without first developing a plan for the population and implementing" that plan. "We told the administration that what we are going to do is not time based, it is conditions based and we showed them our plans," he continued. "I think its unfortunate that before we completed this discussion...things went out in public in the sense that, you know, 'Don't do Rafah and if you do we withhold certain weapons," Herzog said. "I might say as well it is unacceptable."Israel launched its offensive in Gaza following the Oct. 7 onslaught into Israel by Hamas fighters who killed some 1,200 people and took 252 hostages back into the seaside enclave. Israel's assault has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians and wounded nearly 80,000, most of them civilians, Hamas-ruled Gaza's health ministry says.Herzog said the U.S. decision to withhold some weapons "puts us in a corner because we have to deal with Rafah one way or the other."To achieve its goal of destroying Hamas as a military and political force and eliminate its threat, Israel must defeat four battalions of Hamas fighters deployed in Rafah, he said. "I don't believe we can complete the job of defeating Hamas in Gaza without addressing this question," Herzog said.

Israel due to get billions of dollars more in US weapons despite Biden pause
Patricia Zengerle/WASHINGTON (Reuters)/May 9, 2024
Billions of dollars worth of U.S. weaponry remains in the pipeline for Israel, despite the delay of one shipment of bombs and a review of others by President Joe Biden's administration, concerned their use in an assault could wreak more devastation on Palestinian civilians. A senior U.S. official said this week that the administration had reviewed the delivery of weapons that Israel might use for a major invasion of Rafah, a southern Gaza city where over 1 million civilians have sought refuge, and as a result paused a shipment of bombs to Israel. Washington has long urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government not to invade Rafah without safeguards for civilians, seven months into a war that has devastated Gaza. Congressional aides estimated the delayed bomb shipment's value as "tens of millions" of U.S. dollars. A wide range of other military equipment is due to go to Israel, including joint direct attack munitions (JDAMS), which convert dumb bombs into precision weapons; and tank rounds, mortars and armored tactical vehicles, Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters. Risch said those munitions were not moving through the approval process as quickly as they should be, noting some had been in the works since December, while assistance for Israel more typically sails through the review process within weeks. Biden administration officials have said they are reviewing additional arms sales, and Biden warned Israel in a CNN interview on Wednesday that the U.S. would stop supplying weapons if Israeli forces make a major invasion of Rafah. Israel's assault on Gaza was triggered by an Oct. 7 attack by Islamist Hamas militants, which by its tallies killed 1,200. The subsequent Israeli bombardment has killed some 35,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and displaced the majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people. Separately, Representative Gregory Meeks, top Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, has put a hold on an $18 billion arms transfer of package for Israel that would include dozens of Boeing Co. F-15 aircraft while he awaits more information about how Israel would use them. Biden's support for Israel in its war against Hamas has emerged as a political liability for the president, particularly among young Democrats, as he runs for re-election this year. It fueled a wave of "uncommitted" protest votes in primaries and has driven pro-Palestinian protests at U.S. universities. None of those weapons agreements are part of a spending package Biden signed last month that included about $26 billion to support Israel and provide humanitarian aid. Risch and Meeks are two of the four U.S. lawmakers - the chair and ranking member of Senate Foreign Relations and chair and ranking member on House Foreign Affairs - who review major foreign weapons deals.
'FINGERNAILS'
Netanyahu issued a video statement on Thursday saying Israelis "would fight with their fingernails" in an apparent rebuff of Biden. Republicans accused Biden of backing down on his commitments to Israel. "If the Commander-in-Chief can’t muster the political courage to stand up to radicals on his left flank and stand up for an ally at war, the consequences will be grave," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said in a Senate speech. Ten other Senate Republicans held a press conference to announce a non-binding resolution condemning "any action by the Biden Administration to withhold or restrict weapons for Israel."White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Israel was still getting the weapons it needs to defend itself. "He's (Biden's) going to continue to provide Israel with the capabilities that it needs, all of them," Kirby said. Some Congressional Democrats welcomed Biden's action. Senator Chris Murphy, the Democratic chair of the Foreign Relations Mideast subcommittee, cited concern about Rafah. "I do not think it is our strategic or moral interest to help Israel conduct a campaign in Rafah that is likely to kill thousands of innocent civilians and not likely impact Hamas' long-term strength in a meaningful way," he told Reuters.

Israel in the spotlight at the Eurovision semi-final
Reuters/May 9, 2024
In the run up to Israel's semi-final performance on the Eurovision Song Contest stage on Thursday (May 9), Israeli fan Oded Avraham say he feels despondent. Protests and boycotts are planned over the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, triggered by Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel. "We are all in Israel are heartbroken because of what happened on October 7, and it adds up. We thought we are going for this (Eurovision) escapistic bubble, fun, campic, colorful, and then it burst in our face. Another thing burst in our face. So, it's disappointing." Large pro-Palestinian protests are planned in Malmo, Sweden, where the song contest is hosted. Metal barricades and large concrete blocks have been put up around the arena, with police braced for possible unrest. On Wednesday (May 8), a vessel from Scandinavian NGO "Ship to Gaza" arrived at the port of Malmo, calling for solidarity with the people of Gaza. With stops in several European ports, the NGO aims to raise awareness of the situation for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. And will also attempt to break Israel's sea blockade of the Gaza coast. The European Broadcasting Union (EBU), which organizes Eurovision, has resisted calls for Israel to be excluded. But it has asked Israel to modify the lyrics of its original song "October Rain," which appeared to reference the Hamas attack. "I have mixed feelings. It feels like it's hypocrisy that Russia was excluded and that Israel is included."While pro-Palestinian demonstrators, like Leah Ali, protest against what they call double standards, pointing to the EBU's decision to ban Russia after it invaded Ukraine in 2022, Israeli Eurovision fan Yael Teleman says the two should not be compared. "The world perceives it as, like, Russia attacked Ukraine so now we're boycotting them, and Israel attacked Gaza so it's fair to boycott them as well. But this situation is more nuanced, and it's more complexed. Because we were attacked first, we were protecting ourselves." Some 100,000 visitors have gathered in the host city. The show is watched by some 200 million people worldwide.

Netanyahu on US threat to withhold arms: Israel will fight with its 'fingernails' if needed
JERUSALEM (AP)/May 9, 2024
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that a U.S. threat to withhold some arms would not prevent Israel from continuing its offensive in Gaza, indicating it might proceed with an invasion of the packed city of Rafah against the wishes of its closest ally. President Joe Biden has urged Israel not to go ahead with such an operation over fears it would exacerbate the humanitarian catastrophe in the Palestinian enclave. On Wednesday, he said the United States would not provide offensive weapons for a Rafah offensive, raising pressure on Netanyahu. But in a statement released Thursday, Netanyahu said “if we have to stand alone, we will stand alone. If we need to, we will fight with our fingernails. But we have much more than fingernails.”Israel’s top military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, also appeared to downplay the practical impact of any arms holdup. “The army has munitions for the missions it plans, and for the missions in Rafah, too -- we have what we need,” he said in response to a question at a news conference. Israel has repeatedly threatened to invade Rafah, where some 1.3 million Palestinians — over half the population — have sought refuge. The city in southern Gaza is also the main hub for humanitarian operations, which have been severely hindered by the closure of Gaza's two main crossings this week. Israel says Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas and that the army must go in if it hopes to dismantle the group and return scores of hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war. In an earlier response to Biden's decision, Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote a post on the platform X with a heart between the words “Hamas” and “Biden.” He and other ultra-nationalist members of Netanyahu’s coalition support a large-scale Rafah operation and have threatened to bring down his government if it doesn’t happen. Aid groups say a Rafah invasion would be catastrophic. The U.N. says most of the territory’s 2.3 million Palestinians suffer from hunger and that northern Gaza is already experiencing “full-blown famine.” Even the limited operation Israel launched earlier this week, in which a tank brigade captured the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, has thrown humanitarian operations into crisis.
It also complicated what had been months of efforts by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt to broker a cease-fire and the release of hostages. Hamas this week said it had accepted an Egyptian-Qatari cease-fire proposal, but Israel says the plan does not meet its “core” demands. Several days of follow-up talks appeared to end inconclusively on Thursday. Some analysts said Biden's tough line against Israel, and the rift between the allies, threatened to weaken Israel's negotiating position and harden Hamas' stances. Hamas has demanded guarantees for an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as part of any deal — steps Israel has ruled out. “It sends a discordant message at a time when Hamas is holding out on a hostage deal in the hopes that pressure will grow on Israel and it will gain a cease-fire without having to give anything in return,” said the Israel Policy Forum, a pro-Israel organization based in New York.
The war began with Hamas’ surprise attack into southern Israel, in which it killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 250 hostage. The militants are still holding some 100 captives and the remains of more than 30 after most of the rest were released during a cease-fire last year. The war has killed over 34,800 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Israel’s offensive, waged with U.S.-supplied munitions, has caused widespread devastation and forced some 80% of Gaza’s population to flee their homes. Israel's capture of the Rafah crossing Tuesday forced the closure of a key entry point for fuel, and it's unclear when it will reopen. The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA, said it only has enough stocks to maintain operations for a few days and has started rationing. Israel reopened its side of the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing — Gaza’s main cargo terminal — after a rocket attack over the weekend, but UNRWA, the main provider of aid in Gaza, says aid cannot be brought in on the Palestinian side because of the security situation. A recently reopened route in the north is still functioning, but only 60 trucks entered on Tuesday, far below the 500 that entered Gaza each day before the war. The first aid ship bound for an American-built floating pier to be installed in Gaza departed early Thursday. But it's unclear when that corridor will be up and running, and even then it won't be able to handle as much aid as Gaza’s two main land crossings. Maj. Pete Nguyen, a Pentagon spokesman, said Thursday that parts of the pier are still in the Israeli port of Ashdod awaiting more favorable seas before being moved into position off Gaza. He said the U.S. vessel Sagamore, which left Cyprus, would transport aid to another ship, the Roy P. Benavidez, which is off the coast of Gaza. “In the coming days, the U.S. will commence an international community-backed effort to expand the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza using a floating pier,” he said.

US warning on arms supplies prompts Israeli defiance, doubts
James Mackenzie/JERUSALEM (Reuters)/Thu, May 9, 2024
U.S. President Joe Biden's announcement that he would withhold arms supplies if Israel went through with its assault of Rafah drew a defiant reaction on Wednesday alongside unease at the possible longer term fallout from the open clash with Israel's most vital ally. The warning came after months of increasingly urgent calls for restraint by officials from the administration, which has been paying a heavy political price for its continued support for Israel despite the mounting death toll in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would fight "with our fingernails" if necessary and his ministers united in defying the warning. Whether Biden's threat to withhold supplies of bombs and artillery shells is carried out, the ability of Israeli forces to operate in Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than one million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, may not be immediately impacted. Israel's chief military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said Israeli forces had sufficient ammunition for the Rafah operation and other planned operations. "When we speak about difficulties within the Israeli Defence Forces, it would be for the long range or the medium one," said Yaakov Amidror, a former army general and national security advisor to Netanyahu. "For war tomorrow in Gaza or war tomorrow in Lebanon, if that happens, that will not make any difference."The war, which began on Oct. 7 with a devastating assault on communities around Gaza by Hamas gunmen who killed some 1,200 people and abducted more than 250 hostages, has fired protests around the world as the death toll from Israeli campaign in Gaza has neared 35,000. With international pressure mounting on Israel to accept a ceasefire deal with Hamas, the political weight of a step that came after weeks of increasingly urgent appeals by the Biden administration for restraint was unmistakeable. U.S. officials had already confirmed that deliveries of some precision weapons had been held up as a sign of the increasing unhappiness of the Biden administration at Israel's refusal to hold back.Israeli media quoted officials as saying the push to call off the Rafah operation risked removing one of Israel's last remaining bargaining chips with Hamas, which still holds more than 130 Israelis hostages.
LONGER TERM CONSEQUENCES
With war brewing on the northern border with Lebanon, where Israeli forces have been exchanging fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia for months, the longer term consequences could be just as serious, said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States. "My big fear is that the message now gets out that Israel is weak and Israel is vulnerable," he said. "And that message could be internalized by Hezbollah, by Iran and others.""And the (the United States) has this kind of regional war that it didn't want, and all because it broadcast deep divisions between Israel and the United States."Even though any halt to supplies over Rafah could be reversed if fighting blew up in other areas, the ammunition shortages suffered by Ukraine in its war with Russia in recent months underlined the potential problems caused by interruptions to regular supplies of ammunition reaching front line forces. Hezbollah's military strength vastly outweighs the forces of Hamas, with thousands of fighters and an arsenal of tens of thousands of missiles capable of hitting Israeli cities. Israel's own arms industry is formidable, boasting home grown assets like the Iron Dome missile defence system that has managed to shoot down most of the missiles fired by Hamas. But it is not capable of filling all of Israel's needs. "We have remarkable capabilities in Israel, in all fields but there are fields where, even if we were not dependent on the conditions of the American aid money, we would still have to buy weapons from another country," Avi Dadon, former head of the Defense Ministry's procurement and production branch, told Israeli radio. In the longer term, the Biden announcement could prompt Israeli governments to beef up the defence industry even further. "I don't see any substitute to the United States of America at the moment," Amidror said. "It is clear for us that we are going to invest a lot of money to be in a better position to produce for ourselves in the future what we need."

First shipment of aid to the US-built floating pier in Gaza departs from Cyprus
AP/May 09, 2024
NICOSIA, Cyprus: A shipment of humanitarian aid has left a port in Cyprus and is on its way to the US-built pier in Gaza, the first delivery to the newly built ramp, Cyprus’ foreign minister said Thursday. The US vessel, loaded with much needed humanitarian assistance, departed from the Larnaca port with the aim of transferring as much aid to Gaza as possible through the maritime corridor, said Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos. The trip comes some two months after US President Joe Biden gave the order to build the large floating platform several miles off the Gaza coast that will be the launching pad for deliveries. The relief is desperately needed, with the United Nations saying people in Gaza are on the brink of famine and as Israeli troops ordered the evacuation of 100,000 Palestinians from Gaza’s southern city of Rafah. Earlier this week, Israel sent tanks to seize the nearby Rafah crossing with Egypt, shutting down a vital crossing needed to get assistance into the battered enclave. It remains uncertain whether Israel will launch an all-out invasion of Rafah as international efforts for a ceasefire continue. Israel has said an assault on Rafah is crucial to its goal of destroying Hamas after the militant group’s Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel that left 1,200 dead and 250 as hostages in Gaza. The United States, which opposes a Rafah invasion, has said Israel has not provided a credible plan for evacuating and protecting civilians. The war has killed over 34,800 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, and has driven some 80 percent of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million Palestinians from their homes. Humanitarians said aid coming by sea won’t be enough to alleviate the dire humanitarian suffering in Gaza and that the most effective way to get assistance in is by land. The closure of the Rafah crossing and the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing this week cut off the entry of food, supplies, and fuel for aid trucks and generators. Aid groups warn they have only a few days of fuel before humanitarian operations and hospitals around Gaza begin to shut down. Israel said Wednesday it reopened Kerem Shalom, which was shut after Hamas mortars killed four Israeli soldiers nearby, but aid groups said no trucks were entering the Gaza side. Trucks let through from Israel must be unloaded and the cargo reloaded onto trucks in Gaza, but no workers in Gaza can get to the facility to do so because it is too dangerous, the UN says.

The Biden-Netanyahu relationship is strained like never before. Can the two leaders move forward?
WASHINGTON (AP)/May 09, 2024
President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have long managed a complicated relationship, but they're running out of space to maneuver as their views on the Gaza war diverge and their political futures hang in the balance. Their ties have hit a low point as Biden holds up the delivery of heavy bombs to Israel — and warns that the provision of artillery and other weaponry also could be suspended if Netanyahu moves forward with a widescale operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Netanyahu, for his part, is brushing off Biden’s warnings and vowing to press ahead, saying, “If we have to stand alone, we will stand alone.”“If we need to, we will fight with our fingernails. But we have much more than fingernails,” he said.
Biden has long prided himself on being able to manage Netanyahu more with carrots than sticks. But the escalation of friction over the past seven months suggests that his approach may be long past its best-by date.
With both men balancing an explosive Mideast situation against their own domestic political problems, Netanyahu has grown increasingly resistant to Biden’s public charm offensives and private pleading, prompting the president's more assertive pushback in the past several weeks.
“If they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with that problem," Biden said in a CNN interview Wednesday, laying bare his growing differences with Netanyahu. Biden aides nonetheless insist the president is unwilling to allow the U.S.-Israel relationship to truly rupture on his watch. They cite not only the political imperative — a majority of Americans support Israel — but also Biden’s personal history with the country and his belief in its right to defend itself.
The president's aides, watching how pro-Palestinian protests have roiled his party and the college campuses that have been breeding grounds for Democratic voters, have mused for months that Biden could be the last classically pro-Israel Democrat in the White House.
Their optimism about their ability to contain Netanyahu may be falling into the same trap that has vexed a long line of American presidents who have clashed with the Israeli leader over the decades.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby on Thursday declined to say whether Biden informed Netanyahu of his decision to suspend shipment of 3,500 bombs when the leaders spoke earlier this week. But he said Biden has been “direct and forthright” with Netanyahu about his concerns.
Biden and Netanyahu have known each other since Biden was a young senator and Netanyahu was a senior official in Israel's embassy in Washington.
They've hit rough patches before.
There were differences over Israel building settlements in the West Bank during Barack Obama's administration when Biden was vice president. Later, Netanyahu vehemently opposed Biden's push to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal sealed by Obama and scrapped by Donald Trump. Netanyahu chafed at Biden prodding him to de-escalate tensions during Israel's bloody 11-day war with Hamas in 2021. The leaders went more than a month earlier this year without talking as Biden's frustration with Netanyahu grew over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
The relationship remained workable despite such differences between the center-left Democrat and the leader of the most far-right coalition government in Israel's history. But with the Biden-Netanyahu relationship now coming under greater strain than ever before, it is unclear how the leaders will move forward.
Netanyahu is caught between public pressure for a hostage deal and hard-liners in his coalition who want him to expand the Rafah invasion, despite global alarm about the harm it could do to some 1.3 million Palestinians sheltering there. He's made clear that he will push forward with a Rafah operation with or without a deal for hostages. The Israeli leader vowed to destroy Hamas after its Oct. 7 rampage in southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and some 250 were captured and taken hostage. But his public standing has cratered since then, as he faces pressure to find a pathway to a truce that would bring home the remaining hostages and the remains of Israelis who have died in captivity.
He's resisted an investigation into what led to the intelligence and military failures leading up to the Hamas attack. All the while, he's still facing legal problems, including a long-running corruption trial in which he is charged with fraud and accepting bribes.
Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on the Rafah offensive. If he reaches a hostage deal that stops short of conquering Rafah, hardliners in his coalition have threatened to topple the government and trigger new elections at a time when opinion polls forecast he would lose.
“To keep his partners on board and prevent them from pre-empting an election, in which Likud will be decimated and he will be turned out of office, he needs to keep the ‘total victory’ myth alive – and that is only possible by avoiding a deal with Hamas,” wrote Anshel Pfeffer, a columnist and author of a Netanyahu biography, in the Haaretz daily.
Aviv Bushinsky, a former spokesman and chief of staff for Netanyahu, said the Israeli leader remains focused on the war’s primary goal – defeating Hamas – because of concerns about his image and legacy.
He said Netanyahu has spent his career branding himself as the “tough guy on terror.”“He thinks this is how he will be remembered. He’s been promising for a decade to cream Hamas," Bushinsky said. “If he doesn’t, in his mind he’ll be remembered as the worst prime minister of all time.”
Biden, meanwhile, faces mounting protests from young Americans, a segment of the electorate critical to his reelection. And he's faced backlash from Muslim Americans, a key voting bloc in the battleground state of Michigan. Some have threatened to withhold their votes in November to protest his administration's handling of the war. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Biden ally who has been frustrated by the administration’s handling of the war, said Thursday Biden should go further and suspend delivery of all offensive weaponry to Israel.
“The United States does and should stand by its allies, but our allies must also stand by the values and the laws of the United States of America,” Sanders said. “We must use all of our leverage to prevent the catastrophe in Gaza from becoming even worse.”At the same time, Biden is facing bruising criticism from Republicans, including presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee Trump, who say that his decision to hold back weapons is a betrayal of an essential Mideast ally. “What Biden is doing with respect to Israel is disgraceful. If any Jewish person voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. He’s totally abandoned Israel,” Trump told reporters on Thursday.
Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Biden's move is “simply a nod to the left flank” that is handing “a great victory to Hamas.”Friction between the U.S. and Israeli leaders is not without precedent.
President George H.W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir's relationship was strained as the Republican administration threatened to withhold $10 billion in aid to thwart new settlement activity in the West Bank. Obama and Netanyahu's relationship was marked by mutual distrust over the Democrat's effort to reignite the Middle East peace process and forge the Iran nuclear deal. “There were always workarounds if the heads of government really don’t get along. We may get to that,” said Elliot Abrams, a senior national security official in the George W. Bush administration. “But of course, this may be a sort of problem that solves itself in that one or both of them may be gone from office" in a matter of months.
***AP writers Mary Clare Jalonick in Washington and Adriana Gomez Licon in Miami contributed reporting. Frankel reported from Jerusalem.
Aamer Madhani, Zeke Miller And Julia Frankel, The Associated Press

Pro-Palestinian campus protests spread to UK universities
Agence France Presse/May 09, 2024
The grass outside SOAS University of London has been dotted with a handful of tents since the start of this week, with Palestinian flags and slogans calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. There are similar sites at universities across Britain, and so far the protests have been peaceful and left alone by the police, unlike in the United States, France and other countries. Students, many of whom were masked, sat in a circle on a blue tarpaulin to take part in what they called a "teach-in" while others took stock of groceries and supplies piled up inside the shelters. At SOAS, former student Yara, 23, estimated that more than 20 students were taking part -- with about a dozen other encampments at universities elsewhere in the UK, following protests on U.S. campuses in April. The aim, she told AFP, was to "apply pressure on the SOAS administration to adhere to the demands of the students". That includes disclosing links to and divesting from all companies complicit in what she said was "Israel's illegal settlement economy and arms trade".
Solidarity -
Warwick University in Coventry, central England, kicked off first with a "Gaza solidarity encampment" on April 26. Tents then sprang up outside universities in Newcastle, Edinburgh, Manchester, Leeds, Cambridge and Oxford. At Edinburgh, a group of students began a hunger strike to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. In Cambridge, orange tents were lined up neatly outside King's College, which dates back to 1441. Cambridge said in a statement that it respected the freedom of speech and right to protest, adding that it would "not tolerate anti-Semitism, Islamophobia and any other form of racial or religious hatred". Jewish students have voiced concerns for their safety and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is mindful of similar problems in the UK as protests in other countries turn violent. He has called university vice-chancellors for a meeting to discuss the safety of Jewish students in universities, and denounced an "unacceptable rise in anti-Semitism" on campus. British charity the Community Security Trust, which tracks anti-Jewish hate crime, says there have been "unprecedented levels of anti-Semitism" since Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel and Israel's military response. The attack resulted in the deaths of more than 1,170 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Militants also took about 250 hostages. Israel estimates 128 of them remain in Gaza including 36 who officials say are dead. Israel's military campaign has killed at least 34,844 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run territory's health ministry. The SOAS students were given support on Wednesday by Jeremy Corbyn, the veteran left-winger who led the main opposition Labour party from 2015 to 2020. Corbyn said the university should "recognise that students have strong, legitimate, valid opinions". "They shouldn't be closing down protests. They should be recognising the very strong humanitarian views of young people all across this country," he said while attending a rally at the camp. Corbyn, now suspended from the Labour party, was accused of allowing anti-Semitism to flourish during his tenure, and once called Hamas and their Iran-backed allies Hezbollah "friends" -- comments he later said he regretted.
'As long as it takes' -
Yara, who has been at the camp since it sprung up three days ago, said the student protesters were planning to "stay for as long as it takes" for SOAS, which specialises in Africa, Asia and Middle East studies, to accept their demands. "The first night was really rainy and wet and muddy," she said. "But honestly, no matter how much discomfort students may feel camping out, it's actually just a fraction of the conditions in which the Palestinians in Gaza have been experiencing."Having previously only attended the protests, where dozens more students gathered, one 19-year-old SOAS student who studies global development and law said they planned to join the camp this weekend. "I don't think I can wait until my degree's over because people are dying. So being in encampments is as useful as I can be," said the student, who did not wish to be named. "I just said I'd be here because they need people. And I am people."

Zelenskiy dismisses head of state guard after two members accused of assassination plot
Reuters/May 9, 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy dismissed the head of the state guards on Thursday, two days after two of its members were accused of plotting to assassinate the president. Zelenskiy issued a decree dismissing Serhiy Rud. No successor was identified. The state security service (SBU) said this week it had caught two men, colonels in the state guard service, accused of plotting the assassination of Zelenskiy and other top officials. The SBU said the assassinations were to have been a "gift" for Vladimir Putin as he was sworn in for a new term in the Kremlin on Tuesday. It said the men were recruited by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) who leaked classified information to Moscow. The men, the SBU said, were tasked with finding someone close to the presidential guard who would take Zelenskiy hostage and later kill him. There was no indication at what point the alleged plot had been foiled. Moscow issued no comment on the SBU's statement. The president, the very prominent leader of his country's defence more than two years into the Russian invasion, said last year that his security services had foiled at least five Russian plots to assassinate him. The SBU said the spy group also planned to kill SBU head Vasyl Maliuk and Kyrylo Budanov, the military intelligence agency's head.

Houthis vow to widen attacks after targeting 3 cargo ships
SAEED AL-BATATI/Arab News/May 09, 2024
AL-MUKALLA: The Houthi militia on Thursday claimed to have struck three cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden, Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea with drones and missiles, with its leader later threatening to expand operations until Israel ends its war in Gaza. Yahya Sarea, a Houthi military spokesman, said that two vessels, MSC Diego and MSC Gina, were hit with drones and ballistic missiles in the Gulf of Aden, adding that the strikes were “accurate.”Another ship, MSC Vittoria, was hit twice with missiles, first in the Indian Ocean and then in the Arabian Sea, he said. Sarea described the three vessels as “Israeli,” and said the militia will expand its maritime assault if Israel continues its onslaught in Gaza. “The Yemeni Armed Forces are following developments in the Gaza Strip and will not hesitate to escalate their military actions in the face of tyranny against the Palestinian people,” he said. According to marinetraffic.com, which provides information on ship locations and identities, the MSC Diego is a Panama-flagged cargo ship traveling from Oman to Djibouti, while the MSC Gina is a container ship also flying the Panama flag and sailing from Sri Lanka to Djibouti. The MSC Vittoria, a container ship, is traveling under the Panama flag toward India. The US Central Command said on Wednesday that the three drones and one anti-ship ballistic missile launched over the Gulf of Aden by the Houthis on Monday and Tuesday were either shot down by US and coalition troops, or fell into the sea. Since November, the Houthis have seized one commercial ship, sunk another, and launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at international commercial and naval ships in international shipping lanes off Yemen’s coast, including the Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden. The militia have recently expanded their campaign to the Indian Ocean. The Houthis say that they target Israel-linked ships to compel Israel to allow humanitarian supplies into the Gaza Strip, and that US and UK ships were added to their list of targets when the two nations launched strikes against parts of Yemen under militia control. On Thursday, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi said that his forces had targeted 112 ships in the past seven months and had expanded their campaign to include all ships carrying goods to Israeli ports, regardless of nationality or location. “Any ship that transferred products to Israeli ports after the ban was enacted would be a target for us, no matter where it is located. For us, there are no red lines that can impede our operations,” Al-Houthi said in a televised speech.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on May 09-10/2024
The Real Reason Hamas and Egypt Oppose Israel's Control of Rafah, the Only Border Out of Gaza
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./May 9, 2024
Hamas and Egypt were quick to issue statements denouncing the capture of the Rafah border crossing, claiming that the move would "threaten" the lives of the Palestinians and hinder the entry of humanitarian and relief aid into the Gaza Strip.
The Egyptians and Hamas have good reason to be angry with the presence of the IDF at the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing. For several years, Palestinians who wanted to exit the Gaza Strip via the terminal have alleged that they had to bribe Hamas and officials. Hamas and Egypt are now afraid of losing the Palestinian milk-cow.
"It is our right to travel without bribes and without corruption. We are living under a [Hamas] dictatorship." Abu Amr was later arrested by Hamas security officers, who confiscated her mobile phone and ordered her to delete the Facebook post. — Noha Abu Amr, Palestinian journalist, 24.ae, January 24, 2024
[A] Palestinian man in the US [said] he paid $9,000 to get his wife and children on the list. On the day of travel, he was told his children's names were not listed and he would have to pay an extra $3,000. He said the brokers were "trying to trade in the blood of Gazans".
[T]he company [Hala Consulting and Tourism Services] owned by an influential Egyptian businessman and ally of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi] is estimated to have made a minimum of $118 million from desperate Palestinians trying to leave the Gaza Strip. "By the end of this year, if the April average continues, the company may earn well over half a billion dollars from the so-called VIP list of people Hala is transferring across the Gaza-Egypt border. " — Middle East Eye, May 1, 2024.
An international charity [that does not want to be named] with extensive experience in providing emergency aid in wars...is also being forced to pay $5,000 per truck to a company linked to Egypt's General Intelligence Service (GIS) to get aid into the Gaza Strip. — Middle East Eye, January 30, 2024.
The Palestinians actually owe Israel a huge debt of gratitude for finally driving Hamas out of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing.
Egypt and Hamas are, it seems, indifferent to the pain endured by the Palestinians they are effectively imprisoning. All that matters to them is making more money off anyone desperate to leave the Gaza Strip.
On May 6, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) captured the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, drawing condemnations from the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group and Egypt.
The IDF said it had "intelligence that terrorists were using the border crossing for terror purposes." A day earlier, Hamas terrorists fired rockets from near the Rafah terminal toward the Kerem Shalom area (near the Israel-Gaza border), killing four Israeli soldiers and wounding several others.
In response to the Israeli military operation, Hamas and Egypt were quick to issue statements denouncing the capture of the Rafah border crossing, claiming that the move would "threaten" the lives of the Palestinians and hinder the entry of humanitarian and relief aid into the Gaza Strip.
"Egypt condemns in the strongest terms the Israeli military operations in the Palestinian city of Rafah, and the resulting Israeli control over the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing," read a statement by the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"This dangerous escalation threatens the lives of more than a million Palestinians who depend primarily on this crossing as it is the main lifeline of the Gaza Strip, and the safe outlet for the wounded and sick to exit to receive treatment, and for the entry of humanitarian and relief aid to our Palestinian brothers in Gaza."
Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip also expressed outrage over the Israeli move and said they would not accept the presence of any non-Palestinian party on the Palestinian side of their terminal.
"We will not accept from any party the imposition of any form of guardianship over the Rafah crossing," the terrorist groups cautioned. They urged the Arab and Islamic states "to reject any plans and attempts that affect Palestinian-Egyptian sovereignty over the Rafah crossing."
The Egyptians and Hamas have good reason to be angry with the presence of the IDF at the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing. For several years, Palestinians who wanted to exit the Gaza Strip via the terminal have alleged that they had to bribe Hamas and officials. Hamas and Egypt are now afraid of losing the Palestinian milk-cow.
In 2015, Egyptian journalist Ahmed Moussa revealed that Hamas received bribes worth $6,000 from Palestinians for passing through the Rafah border crossing.
A year later, Palestinian journalist Noha Abu Amr wrote on her Facebook page about the plight of her 50-year-old mother, who was unable to travel through the Rafah crossing, but she did not pay a bribe to Hamas officials. She said that her mother sat on the floor and kissed the hands and legs of the crossing officials in full view of the people and begged them to allow her to travel. "They treated her like animals," Abu Amr recounted. "It is our right to travel without bribes and without corruption. We are living under a [Hamas] dictatorship." Abu Amr was later arrested by Hamas security officers, who confiscated her mobile phone and ordered her to delete the Facebook post.
Arab and Western media outlets have reported that since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, Palestinians who want to leave the Gaza Strip through the Rafah terminal are being compelled to bribe Egyptian officials with thousands of dollars. The war erupted after Hamas terrorists invaded Israel and massacred, decapitated, raped and dismembered 1,200 Israelis on October 7. Additionally, more than 240 Israelis were abducted by the terrorists and taken to the Gaza Strip; 132 hostages, many of whom are believed to have been killed, are still being held there by the terrorist group.
"To leave Gaza, people are paying a $5,000 bribe to Egypt," the Gaza-based Palestinian journalist Hind Khoudary wrote on X on November 23, 2023.
Palestinians who try to leave the Gaza Strip through the Rafah border crossing have to pay bribes to brokers of up to $10,000, the British newspaper The Guardian reported on January 8, 2024.
"Very few Palestinians have been able to leave Gaza through the Rafah border crossing but those trying to get their names on the list of people permitted to exit daily say they are being asked to pay large 'coordination fees' by a network of brokers and couriers with alleged links to the Egyptian intelligence services."
It quoted a Palestinian man in the US as saying he paid $9,000 to get his wife and children on the list. On the day of travel, he was told his children's names were not listed and he would have to pay an extra $3,000. He said the brokers were "trying to trade in the blood of Gazans".
"It's very frustrating and saddening," he said. "They are trying to exploit people who are suffering, who are trying to get out of the hell in Gaza."
According to The Guardian:
"A network of brokers, based in Cairo, helping Palestinians leave Gaza has operated around the Rafah border for years. But prices have surged since the start of the war, from $500 for each person."
The Guardian interviewed a number of Palestinians who have been told they would have to pay between $5,000 and $10,000 each to leave the Gaza Strip, with some launching crowdfunding campaigns to raise the money.
A Palestinian living in the UK was quoted as saying:
"People are making money off the misery of others. They're desperate to get out to save their lives and instead of helping they're trying to make money. If there's a way to get people out, then why not just help?"
A company owned by an influential Egyptian businessman and ally of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is making around $2 million a day from Palestinians fleeing the Gaza Strip, according to the Middle East Eye (MEE), a UK-based news website, on May 1, 2024
"Hala Consulting and Tourism Services, a firm owned by Sinai tribal leader and business tycoon Ibrahim al-Organi, has been charging Palestinians crossing from Gaza's Rafah to Egypt at least $5,000 per adult and $2,500 for children under 16.
"It has a monopoly on providing transfer services at the Rafah crossing, the only Gaza exit not bordered with Israel and the single route out of the coastal enclave for Palestinians."
In the past three months alone, the company is estimated to have made a minimum of $118 million from desperate Palestinians trying to leave the Gaza Strip, according to MEE.
"By the end of this year, if the April average continues, the company may earn well over half a billion dollars from the so-called VIP list of people Hala is transferring across the Gaza-Egypt border...
"Palestinian and Egyptian sources told MEE that several intermediaries were involved in coordinating the exit of Palestinians in a haphazard, decentralised way.
"Before February, Palestinians were charged up to $11,000 per adult to leave Gaza, until Hala monopolised the business and standardised fees.
"Prior to the war, Hala charged everyone exiting Gaza via the Rafah crossing $350 per person, but the price has increased 14-fold for Palestinians."
According to the Palestinian ambassador in Cairo, Diab Allouh, an estimated 80,000-100,000 Palestinians have fled Gaza via Egypt since the war began.
Earlier this year, MEE reported that an international charity with extensive experience in providing emergency aid in wars, famines and earthquakes throughout the Middle East and in Afghanistan is also being forced to pay $5,000 per truck to a company linked to Egypt's General Intelligence Service to get aid into the Gaza Strip.
"The charity, which does not want to be named to avoid obstruction to its relief efforts in Gaza, spoke to Middle East Eye in outrage at having to pay what it openly describes as a bribe to a state-linked agent."
MEE quoted a spokesman for the charity as saying:
"We have worked around the world in times of war, earthquakes and other disasters, but we have never been treated like this by a state that is profiteering from the dispatch of humanitarian goods. It's draining a lot of our resources and the bribe being paid is per truck."
According to MEE:
"The charity's statement to MEE is the first concrete evidence of Egypt or Egyptian government-linked parties demanding a cut from the humanitarian aid going into Gaza..."
MEE said it spoke to five Palestinian families who all confirmed that they had paid fees in the thousands, mostly in US dollars or euros, to mediators who then facilitated their exit from Gaza.
Nadia Atawy, an Egyptian woman trapped in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the war, said in a video that she is unable to pay a $650 bribe to return to her family in Egypt though the Rafah border crossing. "I don't have the money to pay," Atawy complained. "I have children with me and I can't afford to pay [the bribe]. I don't know what to do."
The Palestinians actually owe Israel a huge debt of gratitude for finally driving Hamas out of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing. Since the terrorist organization took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, the crossing has been under its control. Hamas used the crossing to collect money for its corrupt officials and their families. In a similar vein, Palestinians are now being forced to pay thousands of dollars to Egyptians to escape the Gaza Strip.
One can understand why Egypt and Hamas strongly oppose having the IDF stationed at the border crossing: the millions of dollars they have been receiving may disappear. Egypt and Hamas are, it seems, indifferent to the pain endured by the Palestinians they are effectively imprisoning. All that matters to them is making more money off anyone desperate to leave the Gaza Strip.
**Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20624/israel-gaza-egypt-border-rafah

Replacing America
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/May 08/2024 |
China’s Communists rulers intend to establish a new world order
It’s been said that the last thing a fish is likely to be aware of is water. By the same token, the last thing most Americans are likely to be aware of is the world order.
There has always been a world order. For millennia, it was based on the law of the jungle: Eat or be eaten. Humans who were clever enough to organize into tribes became stronger. Stronger tribes conquered weaker tribes and became nations. Stronger nations conquered weaker nations and became empires.
Empires – usually colonial empires – imposed taxes, laws and, sometimes, religions on those they conquered. European empires dominated much of the world from the 16th to the 20th centuries. But before that there were Persian empires, Arab and Islamic empires, Mongol empires, African empires, and South American empires. World War II was fought to prevent German and Japanese empires from conquering Europe, Asia, and beyond.
After the defeat of the Third Reich and Imperial Japan, the sun set on Europe’s other empires. The United States, which had become the most militarily and economically powerful nation, began constructing what would become known as the “American-led, international, liberal, rules-based order.”
It supported the self-determination of nations (many carved from empires), the development of international laws and norms, and the promotion of “human rights.”To further these objectives, Americans founded an organization hopefully named the United Nations, and gave the Soviet Union a permanent seat and veto on its Security Council.
Nevertheless, Stalin soon forced the nations of Eastern and Central Europe into the Soviet empire. The collapse of the U.S.S.R. in 1991 provided the United States with a “unipolar moment.”
But moments are fleeting, and we are now in what many perceive as a new cold war. The People’s Republic of China, the most powerful Communist regime in history, intends to end America’s global primacy.
Increasingly aligned with Beijing are the unfree, anti-democratic, anti-American, and anti-Western regimes that rule Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.
As for the U.N., it’s failed. For one, the repressive regimes in China and Cuba currently sit on its Human Rights Council.
For another, a U.N. entity has served for almost 20 years as the social services agency for Hamas, thereby leaving the terrorist organization free to plan the war it launched against Israel last October.
And a third: During the COVID epidemic, the U.N.’s World Health Organization unceasingly parroted Beijing’s deceptive talking points.
I could go on.
Matt Pottinger, who served as Deputy National Security Advisor in the Trump administration and now chairs FDD’s China program, has studied the beliefs and intentions of Xi Jinping as revealed in writings and speeches in Mandarin to his Chinese Communist Party (CCP) comrades.
In testimony before Congress last year, Mr. Pottinger explained that Mr. Xi’s unambiguous goal is to overturn “U.S. leadership around the globe.”
To accomplish that, Mr. Xi has said, will require a “struggle” with America and the West, one that is “irreconcilable,” and “will inevitably be long, complicated, and sometimes even very sharp.”
Based on this and abundant additional evidence – e.g., Beijing’s military buildup, disinformation campaigns, and trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S. – it is folly to pretend that the U.S. and the People’s Republic are merely “rivals” engaged in a “pacing challenge,” a “competition” that can be “managed” through “trust-building.”
“It does us little good,” Mr. Pottinger told Congress, “to repeat again and again that we aren’t seeking a new Cold War when the CCP has been stealthily waging one against us for years.”
The alternative, he said, is “to constrain and temper Xi’s ambitions now—through robust, coordinated military deterrence (including an urgent expansion of our defense-industrial capacity) and through strict limits on China’s access to technology, capital, and data controlled by the United States and its allies.”
America’s goal should be to prevent Mr. Xi from establishing a new world order – what he calls “A Community of Common Destiny for Mankind” – that would be illiberal with rules made by the CCP.
To achieve this – and keep this new cold war from turning hot – requires that Mr. Xi and other adversaries perceive that America’s military and economic power is vastly superior to theirs, and that Americans have the will to utilize their power when necessary.
President Biden’s capitulation to the Taliban, his slow-drip support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian imperialism, his attempts to appease Iran’s jihadi rulers, his so-far-unsuccessful response to attacks by Houthis rebels (a proxy of Tehran) on ships in one of the world’s most strategic waterways, and his ambivalent support for Israel’s war against Hamas (another proxy of Tehran), while cutting the U.S. defense budget in real terms, have conveyed weakness and fecklessness.
To the world’s sharks, that’s blood in the water.
Mr. Pottinger calls his proposed policy “constrainment” because, unlike “containment,” it takes into consideration the current reality of Sino-American economic interdependence. But it would “seek to puncture Beijing’s confidence that it can achieve its aims through war.”
At the same time, America’s economy should be strengthened in ways that ensure that China becomes more dependent on the U.S., and the U.S. less dependent on China.
Will this policy revive the “American-led, international, liberal, rules-based order”? Probably not, but it could ensure the survival of a free America and an America-led Free World.
If your objection to this approach is that it will be costly, let me remind you that deterrence is cheap compared to the price of hot wars. That is a fundamental principle upon which the Reagan doctrine of “peace through strength” rests.
It applies to the current “struggle” as much as it did to the first Cold War, a conflict President Reagan understood Americans could not afford to lose.
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times.

As the world burns, Europe is out to lunch
Ross Anderson/Arab News/May 09, 2024
With half the world ablaze, from Gaza to Donetsk and Syria to Sudan, it is heartening to note that our friends in Europe have their priorities in the correct order: and at the top of that order is food. In Germany, a popular and uniquely Teutonic campaign is underway for a cap on the price of a doner kebab, which had remained at about €4 ($4.30) for years but doubled after the coronavirus pandemic and is now approaching €10. Across the border in France, the country’s legions of traditional artisan pâtissiers are up in arms over a trend among young bakers to create giant croissants, pains au chocolat and pains aux raisins, some weighing up to 1 kg — partly for consumption by particularly peckish breakfasters, but mainly in a contest for fans on Instagram and TikTok. Both comestibles, of course, have their roots in this part of the world. The doner kebab has Turkish origins, but what is it other than a poor man’s shawarma? Arabs have been eating meat grilled on skewers for centuries and even exported it to Mexico in the form of tacos al pastor. The Germans, meanwhile, can thank Turkish migrant workers who arrived after the Second World War and brought with them the vertical rotisserie, invented during the Ottoman era and with which we are now all so familiar.
It would be fair to say that, elsewhere in Europe, the doner kebab has a less than salubrious reputation. In England’s cities in particular, carousers who have supped not wisely but too well queue up in late-night kebab shops to purchase meat of indeterminate origin stuffed into recycled cardboard masquerading as pita bread, which they eat while walking home — and then wonder why they feel unwell in the morning. With the price of a doner kebab, the Left Party has identified a bandwagon and has wasted no time in jumping aboard
In Germany, however, the doner is entirely respectable, a lunchtime staple for office and shop workers on benches in city parks. Germans being Germans, they have even created a compound noun for the price campaign — “Donerpreisbremse,” or “doner price brake.”
And while Germany did not become Europe’s free-market economic powerhouse by imposing artificial price caps on goods and services, nor are its politicians blind to an opportunity when it presents itself. In this case, the Left Party has identified a bandwagon and has wasted no time in jumping aboard. The party has demanded that the price of a doner be capped at €4.90 and €2.50 for school pupils, with the gap between the subsidized price and the real one funded by the taxpayer. “This isn’t an internet joke, but a serious call for help,” the party’s spokesman said. “The state must intervene so that food does not become a luxury.”As to the origin of the croissant, that depends on which legend you choose to believe. One is that Europeans created it to mark the defeat of the Umayyad army by the Franks at the Battle of Tours in 732, its shape emulating that of the Islamic crescent; another is that all-night bakers alerted Christian forces to Ottoman tunnelling, thus ending the Siege of Vienna in 1683, and that their crescent-shaped baked goods referred to the emblems on the Ottoman flags. Both accounts are almost certainly fictional, but let us not permit the facts to get in the way of a good myth. Unlike in Germany, the culinary argument in France is less economic than cultural. It was started by chef Philippe Conticini, whose 1 kg croissants — compared with the usual weight of about 80 g — are flying off the shelves of his Paris bakery, even at an eye-watering €32 each. Others have joined in. One baker in Paris offers “le big pain aux raisins,” 350 g for €9.90; another in Toulouse has “la chocolatine XXL” at €12; and, in a sign that the trend has gone mainstream, the Paris department store Galeries Lafayette is knocking out “le big pain au chocolat” at €14.90 for 320 g. France’s politicians have not yet chosen sides in the war of the giant croissants, but it can only be a matter of time
Conticini’s marketing director (of course he has a marketing director, what do you think this is all about?) defends the quality of the giant product. “It’s now become a diktat that you have to create an event for Instagram or TikTok. Alas, that often takes precedence over taste,” he admitted. “But we are here above all to procure emotions by tasting.”Others are unimpressed. One traditional pâtissier in Alsace complained: “Some of the new generation pastry chefs and bakers come up with creations with the foremost obsession being the impact of novelty in social media.”So far, again unlike in Germany, France’s politicians have not yet chosen sides in the war of the giant croissants, but it can only be a matter of time. Few subjects capture the French imagination more comprehensively than gastronomy, which makes it a political matter. Charles de Gaulle once questioned how it was possible to govern a country that had 246 different kinds of cheese, and that was before they started putting truffle in the Brie. And being on the wrong side of the argument can have fatal consequences. When it was pointed out to Marie Antoinette, queen of France during the French Revolution, that her subjects were too poor to buy bread, she is said to have responded: “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche.” OK, it’s not quite “Let them eat cake,” the tone-deaf phrase for which she is best remembered. And the quote is almost certainly as much of a myth as the origins of the croissant — but they had the poor woman’s head off for it anyway.
*Ross Anderson is associate editor of Arab News.

How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?
Andrew G. Clemmensen/The Washington Institute/May 09/2024
Part of a series: Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
or see Part 1: The Palestinian Arena in the Shadow of the Iran-Israel Crisis
Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.
Iran’s decision to launch a direct, state-on-state attack against Israel on April 13 increased the risk of overt conventional conflict in the Middle East. This attack was significant in scope, scale, and complexity, employing hundreds of one-way attack drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Equally significant was the U.S.-organized effort to defeat Iran’s attack, working with Israel as well as European and Arab allies to integrate capabilities and defend the region’s airspace. Although not publicly claimed, the April 19 Israeli response targeted air defenses protecting Iran’s nuclear program deep inside the country, without damage to civilian infrastructure or civilian casualties. And while the April 2024 escalation cycle appears closed, the region has now crossed the threshold for state-on-state attacks, with Israel and Iran both displaying potent capabilities and resolve.
The following article is part of a series that aims to shed light on the opportunities and risks of the post-April 13 strategic environment.
Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel was no mere demonstration, but rather a coordinated aerial assault. Fortunately, a well-executed, multinational integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) operation was able to counter it with resounding success, mainly for three reasons: (1) technological overmatch, (2) a large forward deployment of U.S. forces, and (3) a highly coordinated network of partners. Lest one think Tehran and its proxies lack options against allied defenses, however, each of these achievements comes with caveats that must be addressed to effectively deter Iran in the future.
The Attack and Defense
Over the course of the assault, more than 300 drones, missiles, and rockets were launched at Israel with estimated arrival times that spanned roughly six hours. In the first salvo, approximately 170 drones were launched from Iranian territory, followed a few hours later by thirty or so cruise missiles. In addition, Iran fired two salvos of ballistic missiles, around 110-130 in all. Meanwhile, Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and various proxies in Iraq launched dozens more drones, missiles, and rockets from their territories.
In all, only four ballistic missiles appeared to penetrate Israeli defenses; no drones or other weapons reached their targets. This represents a 98 percent overall success rate for allied defenses, and a greater than 90 percent success rate specifically against Iranian ballistic missiles.
Details on which specific platforms were used to counter specific enemy munitions have not been disclosed, but open-source reporting and what is known about IAMD doctrine suggest that a combination of sea-, land-, and air-based platforms used kinetic and electromagnetic means (i.e., jamming) to destroy or disable them. This defensive effort was reportedly bolstered by a nearly 50 percent failure rate among the ballistic missiles Iran launched, which could have been caused by manufacturing flaws, poor military performance, sabotage, or other reasons.
The coalition of nations that defended against the attack have an arsenal of “exquisite” air defense systems—which is both a tactical benefit and a financial curse. Their preeminent aerial platform is the $100 million F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter, which can be armed with $1 million AIM-120 air-to-air missiles and $500,000 AIM-9s. Israeli F-35 variants and other coalition fighter aircraft made easy work of Iran’s suite of slow-flying drones (roughly $20,000-$50,000 per unit) and similarly inexpensive cruise missiles. From the ground, U.S. forces in Iraq employed at least one Patriot missile battery, whose interceptors cost $4 million each. In the Mediterranean Sea, two U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyers brought down a half-dozen missiles, likely with SM-3 interceptors that cost anywhere from $9.7 to $28 million depending on the variant employed. Israel also appeared to use its full suite of missile defense systems (David’s Sling, Arrow 2 and 3, Iron Dome), with interceptors that cost up to several million dollars each.
The successful defense also required the largest American presence in U.S. Central Command’s area of operations since the peak of the fight against the Islamic State. This deployment has stretched the limits of U.S. personnel and equipment, particularly at a time when the military is attempting to rebalance its force posture to support a National Defense Strategy that focuses on rising Chinese power in the Pacific. For example, the destroyer USS Carney had been deployed in the region for 200 days at the time of Iran’s attack, while the USS Eisenhower carrier group reached 183 days while supporting Operation Prosperity Garden, the mission to defend commercial shipping against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, though unconfirmed by the Department of Defense, more Patriot missile batteries have reportedly been operating in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility since October 7. Every additional battery is significant as there are only sixty in the active-duty inventory. This is a tremendous strain on a low-density/high-demand force that is nowhere near attaining the Pentagon’s mandated 1:2 deployment-to-dwell time ratio. Even before October 7, as many as 60 percent of the Army’s missile defense units were often deployed at one time.
Perhaps the most complicated ingredient for success was the network of partners coordinated through the U.S. Air Force’s Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. In 2022, Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of CENTCOM at the time, identified IAMD as the best way to operationalize the Abraham Accords between Arab states and Israel—partly because all of these governments viewed the threat of Iranian missiles and drones as imminent, and also because IAMD was more achievable than other forms of integration, relying primarily on information sharing rather than hosting foreign forces. Indeed, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates reportedly assisted last month’s operation through information and intelligence sharing; Jordan also shot down multiple targets over its airspace, while multiple partners apparently granted overflight rights for U.S. Air Force operations.
Publicly, however, Saudi Arabia has downplayed or outright refuted its involvement in the operation, demonstrating the potentially tenuous nature of IAMD in the Middle East. Although regional governments recognize the threat posed by Iran and the benefits of cooperative defense arrangements, they must also manage hostile domestic opinion toward Israel.
Iran’s Post-Attack Options
The Iranian military undoubtedly learned a great deal from the attack—probing Israeli and coalition defenses created an opportunity to assess their capabilities, limitations, and how they operate together. Future strikes are likely to be better coordinated and use more munitions to overwhelm defenses.
Iran will also presumably try to break up the coalition it faced during this attack. This means driving wedges between Arab states and Israel while creating other pressures that erode America’s ability to maintain its regional presence.
In addition, the incident could make Tehran reconsider its weapons of mass destruction doctrine. If Israeli and coalition defenses are able to consistently intercept the vast majority of its conventional munitions, the regime may conclude that biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons are necessary to have any strategic effect.
U.S. Countermeasures
The most obvious means of maintaining an effective defense against Iranian threats is to invest in more air defenses—though not necessarily more capable or expensive ones. To cut U.S. costs while simultaneously creating denser, more innovative IAMD networks, Washington should prioritize Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to its partners in the region, including expanded sales and production of Patriot missile batteries, fighter aircraft (whether older models or the F-35, whose steep costs would come down if more were on order), and Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense systems (THAADs). At the same time, however, the United States must procure more inexpensive systems and explore other means of deterring Iran and its proxies, lest overinvestment in “exquisite” defensive capabilities creates the twenty-first-century equivalent of the Maginot Line.
Just days after Iran’s attack, Congress approved $95 billion in military aid for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, including U.S.-manufactured air defense assets. This package represents a nearly 60 percent addition to the 2024 defense appropriations for U.S. military procurement. Going forward, CENTCOM, the Missile Defense Agency, and the State Department should foster collaboration among partners to integrate lessons learned from the Iran attack and the Ukraine war, and to identify new air defense requirements for FMS. By combining these additional requirements in the Pentagon’s Future Years Defense Program, by emphasizing that many of these additions could be paid for by partners, and by establishing new baselines of assistance for Taiwan and Ukraine, U.S. officials could send industry a clear signal of financial consistency, enabling it to ramp up production capacity.
Novel approaches to system development could help as well. Start-up companies should not be subject to antiquated protocols for testing, development, and evaluation that take years before a system can be fielded across U.S. forces, let alone be offered to partners. Instead, Washington should connect these firms with well-financed partner nations to refine their products in the field. Although improving interception capabilities is important, another step may be even more crucial: transforming the CAOC from a regional coordinator into a fully integrated regional operations center. This means providing partners with more and better sensors while forging deeper cooperative agreements between them. In doing so, Washington should emphasize that such efforts are for the region’s collective security—Israel should not be a favored beneficiary of these arrangements, apart from urgent measures to safeguard it from the particularly imminent threats it faces. Moreover, because the Iran attack represents a major shift in the Middle East’s strategic environment, the United States should respond by sending more defensive forces to the region, and more consistently. In 2023, Congress authorized up to twenty additional Patriot missile batteries for the Army; officials should make sure that the necessary funds are appropriated to actually reach this force level. They should also consider assigning more forces to CENTCOM’s area of operations rather than relying on rotational deployments. Establishing “normalized” tours for air defense artillery units and other forces that have perennially been deployed to CENTCOM could help deter Iran by demonstrating a resolute U.S. commitment to the region; it would also provide powerful leverage to dissuade partners from inviting China into their defense architectures.
Finally, policymakers should reevaluate the costs of various deterrence methods and adjust their approach accordingly. In recent years, they have relied quite heavily on deterrence by denial—that is, making sure adversaries like Iran are unable to effectively strike U.S. personnel or partners. This posture is ideal in many ways but costs a great deal and, as stated previously, requires a large forward presence for success; conversely, Iran has achieved inexpensive deterrence. Policymakers should therefore consider pairing denial with punishment, both threatened and actual. For example, in the event of a future attack, a counterstrike against Iran’s drone manufacturing capabilities could be particularly beneficial—not only by sending a strategic message to bolster deterrence, but also by degrading drone production, which would diminish the cost advantages of Iran’s approach and reduce the inventory available for arming its proxies and Russia.
**Col. Andrew Clemmensen (USAF) is a 2023-24 military fellow at The Washington Institute. The conclusions and opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. government, the Department of Defense, the U.S. Air Force, or Air University.