Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 29-30/2024
Lebanese PM hails army as ‘guardian of our homeland’s security,’ during southern visit
Iran warns Israel of ‘obliterating’ war if Lebanon attacked
Saudi embassy in Lebanon urges citizens to leave country immediately
US and Europe warn Lebanon's Hezbollah to ease strikes on Israel and back off from wider Mideast war
U.S. Presses to Avert Wider War Between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 29-30/2024
The US has sent at least 14,000 of its massive, highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs to Israel since October 7, report says
US proposes new language to revive stalled Israel-Hamas ceasefire efforts
No progress in Gaza ceasefire talks with Israel, says Hamas official
Gazans living in ‘unbearable’ conditions: UNRWA
The UN starts to move tons of aid from US-built pier after security fears suspended work there
Gazans living in ‘unbearable’ conditions: UNRWA
Palestinians flee as Israeli forces return to Gaza’s north
Police officer shot with arrow in suspected terror attack at Israeli embassy in Serbia
10 Ukrainians held prisoner for years in Russia return home after Vatican mediation
UNESCO finds Islamic State group-era bombs in Mosul mosque walls, years after the defeat of IS
Khamenei protege, sole moderate to battle in Iran's presidential run-off
Iran presidential candidate Jalili is fiercely loyal to Khamenei
France's army chief says small drones will lose their battlefield advantage. But Ukraine likely won't be changing tack anytime soon.
Terrorist attacks are on the rise in Russia as Putin remains 'distracted' by war in Ukraine
The new Egyptian government, which is expected to announce its Cabinet members soon, faces numerous challenges, experts and analysts say.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on June 29-30/2024
Today in History: Christians ‘Place Their Hope in the Lord Jesus Christ’ and Defeat Islam/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/Sat, June 29, 2024
The Obama and Biden Administrations: Paving the Way for a Nuclear-Armed Iran/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/June 28/2024
A golden opportunity for lasting peace in the South Caucasus/Luke Coffey/Arab News/June 29, 2024
Debate refuels concerns over Biden’s health/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/June 29, 2024
How a sarcophagus fragment helped solve an ancient Egyptian mystery/JONATHAN GORNALL/Arab News/June 29, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 29-30/2024
Lebanese PM hails army as ‘guardian of our homeland’s security,’ during southern visit
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/June 29, 2024
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Saturday that the Lebanese army is “the protector and guardian of the nation.”He assured the army that it has the full support of the government, adding: “I know that you are going through so many difficulties, but, God willing, they will pass.”Mikati was visiting southern Lebanon for the first time since the beginning of hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army on Oct. 8. The prime minister visited the South Litani Sector army base at the Benoit Barakat barracks in Tyre, where he met with the sector’s commander, Brig. Gen. Edgard Lawandos, and other officials. “The Israeli threats we are facing are a form of psychological warfare,” Mikati said in a statement after his visit. “Everyone is asking whether or not there will be a war. Yes, we are in a state of war, and there is a large number of martyrs, including civilians and non-civilians, in addition to many destroyed villages, due to the Israeli aggression.”
FASTFACT
The Gaza war has led to soaring tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, leading Iran on Saturday to warn of an ‘obliterating’ war if Israel attacked Lebanon. Mikati’s visit to the south coincided with the start of official exams in Lebanon. He and Education Minister Abbas Halabi visited official exam centers in Tyre. Among those sitting their exams are students who have fled with their families from border villages. Mikati said: “Would (we have the) ability to carry out exams in the south without the army’s presence?”The prime minister’s visit comes at a time when Israel is threatening to expand the war in Lebanon while countries in the region and beyond are cautioning against escalation. “The psychological warfare is escalating, but, hopefully, our country will overcome this phase and will have permanent stability on the border thanks to your courage, bravery, and sacrifice,” Mikati told the troops. According to the latest update from the National Early Warning System Platform, which is managed by the National Council for Scientific Research, one Lebanese soldier has been killed and five wounded in Israeli attacks. Hezbollah lost 372 fighters, while 124 civilians have been killed and 355 injured. The total area burned by internationally prohibited phosphorous bombs fired by the Israeli army as of June 13 is 1,698 hectares, according to the update. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said during his visit to Israeli forces near the northern border with Lebanon on Saturday that “Israel isn’t looking for war with Hezbollah.” But, he added, “The Israeli army is ready for war.”Gallant continued: “This has always been the best choice, and we are not looking for war, but we are ready for it. If Hezbollah chooses war, we know what to do. If they choose peace, we will respond appropriately.”Gallant’s remarks came while Israeli hostilities continued. A military drone targeted a motorcycle on the road between Houla and Mays Al-Jabal, killing its driver, while another raid targeted forests between Habbariyeh and Kfarshouba. Israeli artillery also bombed areas between Dahira and Alma Al-Shaab. Lebanese Forces MP Ghada Ayoub praised Mikati’s visit to the south. Ayoub said: “Welcome Prime Minister Najib Mikati to southern Lebanon, even if your visit is late.” She said his visit showed that there “is no actual sovereignty without the protection of the Lebanese army and that the only legitimacy is for the Lebanese army.” She added: “There’s also no stability and safety unless the Lebanese army takes over all Lebanese borders under the Taif Agreement, the Lebanese constitution, and the relevant international resolutions.” Ayoub said that Mikati’s statement regarding the army is “a response to those who doubt the Lebanese army’s strength and readiness.”
The Lebanese-American Coordinating Committee said in a statement: “The escalating fears of an expansion of the war find their roots in the lack of a sustainable solution to the outstanding border issues between Lebanon and Israel, which continues to occupy Lebanese territories, in addition to the failure to implement the provisions of Resolution 1701, which has been widely violated since 2006.”It added: “This necessitates pushing toward a full operational commitment to its stipulations, as well as its annexes in Resolution 2650, which all members of the UN Security Council approved.” The committee pointed out its “continuous communication with the US administration,” and called for intensified diplomatic efforts. It also stated that Resolution 1701 is closely linked to Resolutions 1680 and 1559, all of which stem from “the spirit of the Lebanese constitution and the Taif Agreement affirming the Lebanese state’s right to exercise exclusive sovereignty over all its territories.” The statement added: “This requires the Lebanese authorities to adhere to the constitution and international resolutions and to empower the legitimate armed forces with the necessary equipment and personnel to perform their duties in this context in coordination with UNIFIL forces, while simultaneously initiating a process to neutralize Lebanon from regional and international conflicts.”

Iran warns Israel of ‘obliterating’ war if Lebanon attacked
AFP/June 29, 2024
TEHRAN: Iran on Saturday warned that “all Resistance Fronts,” a grouping of Iran and its regional allies, would confront Israel if it attacks Lebanon. The comment from Iran’s mission to New York comes with fears of a wider regional war involving Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement. The two sides have engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire since the war in Gaza began. Such exchanges have escalated this month, alongside bellicose rhetoric from both sides. Israel’s military said plans for a Lebanon offensive had been “approved and validated,” prompting Hezbollah to respond that none of Israel would be spared in a full-blown conflict. In a post on social media platform X, the Iranian mission said it “deems as psychological warfare the Zionist regime’s propaganda about intending to attack Lebanon.”But, it added, “should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, incl. the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table.”The war in Gaza began in October when Hamas Palestinian militants attacked southern Israel. Iran, which backs Hamas, has praised the attack as a success but has denied any involvement. Alongside Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel, Iran-backed rebels in Yemen have repeatedly struck commercial ships in the Red Sea area in what they say are acts of solidarity with the Palestinians. Iran also backs other groups in the region.The Islamic republic has not recognized Israel since the 1979 revolution that toppled Iran’s United States-backed shah. Fears of regional war also soared in April, after an air strike that levelled Iran’s consulate in Damascus and killed seven Revolutionary Guards, two of them generals. Iran hit back with an unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13-14. Iran’s state media later reported explosions in the central province of Isfahan as US media quoted American officials saying Israel had carried out retaliatory strikes on its arch-rival. Tehran downplayed the reported Israeli raid.

Saudi embassy in Lebanon urges citizens to leave country immediately
ARAB NEWS/June 29, 2024
BEIRUT: The Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon said on Saturday it was closely following the developments of the current events in southern Lebanon, Saudi Press Agency reported. It stressed its previous call to all Saudi citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon, and urged citizens there to leave Lebanese territory immediately. The embassy said should they need to, citizens must contact it in the event of any emergency. The warning came as Iran on Saturday warned that “all Resistance Fronts,” a grouping of Iran and its regional allies, would confront Israel if it attacked Lebanon. The comment from Iran’s mission to New York came with fears of a wider regional war involving Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement. The two sides have engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire since the war in Gaza began.

US and Europe warn Lebanon's Hezbollah to ease strikes on Israel and back off from wider Mideast war
Ellen Knickmeyer And Aamer Madhani/WASHINGTON (AP)/June 29, 2024
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S., European and Arab mediators are pressing to keep stepped-up cross-border attacks between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants from spiraling into a wider Middle East war that the world has feared for months.
Hopes are lagging for a cease-fire anytime soon in Israel's conflict with Hamas in Gaza that would calm attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-allied militias. With that in mind, American and European officials are delivering warnings to Hezbollah, which is far stronger than Hamas but seen as overconfident, about taking on the military might of Israel, current and former diplomats say. They are warning that the group should not count on the United States or anyone else being able to hold off Israeli leaders if they decide to execute battle-ready plans for an offensive into Lebanon. And Hezbollah should not count on its fighters' ability to handle whatever would come next. On both sides of the Lebanese border, escalating strikes between Israel and Hezbollah, one of the region's best-armed fighting forces, appeared at least to level off this past week. While daily strikes still pound the border area, the slight shift offered hope of easing immediate fears, which had prompted the U.S. to send an amphibious assault ship with a Marine expeditionary force to join other warships in the area in hopes of deterring a wider conflict.
It's not clear whether Israel or Hezbollah has decided to ratchet down attacks to avoid triggering an Israeli invasion into Lebanon, said Gerald Feierstein, a former senior U.S. diplomat in the Middle East. Despite this past week's plateauing of hostilities, “it certainly seems the Israelis are still ... arranging themselves in the expectation that there will be some kind of conflict ... an entirely different magnitude of conflict," he said.
The message being delivered to Hezbollah is “don't think that you're as capable as you think you are,” he said. Beginning the day after Hamas' Oct. 7 attacks on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, Hezbollah has launched rockets into northern Israel and vowed to continue until a cease-fire takes hold. Israel has hit back, with the violence forcing tens of thousands of civilians from the border in both countries. Attacks intensified this month after Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah responded with some of its biggest missile barrages. U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths used the word “apocalyptic” to describe a war that could result. Both Israel and Hezbollah, the dominant force in politically fractured Lebanon, have the power to cause heavy casualties. “Such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said as he met recently with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon. “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war, with terrible consequences for the Middle East.”Gallant, in response, said, “We are working closely together to achieve an agreement, but we must also discuss readiness on every possible scenario.”
Analysts expect other Iran-allied militias in the region would respond far more forcefully than they have for Hamas, and some experts warn of ideologically motivated militants streaming into the region to join in. Europeans fear destabilizing refugee flows. While Iran, which is preoccupied with a political transition at home, shows no sign of wanting a war now, it sees Hezbollah as its strategically vital partner in the region — much more so than Hamas — and could be drawn in. "Obviously if it does look like things are going seriously south for the Israelis, the U.S. will intervene,” Feierstein said. “I don't think that they would see any alternative to that.”While the U.S. helped Israel knock down a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones in April, the U.S. likely would not do as well assisting Israel's defense against any broader Hezbollah attacks, said Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is harder to fend off the shorter-range rockets that Hezbollah fires routinely across the border, he said. The Israeli army is stretched after a nearly 9-month war in Gaza, and Hezbollah holds an estimated arsenal of some 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel. Israeli leaders, meanwhile, have pledged to unleash Gaza-like scenes of devastation on Lebanon if a full-blown war erupts.
White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein, President Joe Biden's point person on Israel-Hezbollah tensions, has not been successful so far in getting the two sides to dial back the attacks. The French, who have ties as Lebanon's former colonial power, and other Europeans also are mediating, along with the Qataris and Egyptians. White House officials have blamed Hezbollah for escalating tensions and said it backs Israel’s right to defend itself. The Biden administration also has told the Israelis that opening a second front is not in their interest. That was a point hammered home to Gallant during his latest talks in Washington with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Austin, CIA Director William Burns, national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Hochstein and others. “We’re going to continue to help Israel defend itself; that’s not going to change,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. “But as for a hypothetical — specifically with respect to the northern border line ... — again, we want to see no second front opened, and we want to see if we can’t resolve the tensions out there through diplomatic processes.”White House officials, however, are not discounting the real possibility that a second front in the Mideast conflict could open.
In conversations with Israeli and Lebanese officials and other regional stakeholders, there is agreement that “a major escalation is not in anybody’s interest,” a senior Biden administration official said. The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly about White House deliberations and spoke on condition of anonymity, bristled at the “purported logic” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah arguing that Israel would see an end to Hezbollah attacks by reaching a cease-fire agreement with Hamas in Gaza. But the official also acknowledged that an elusive cease-fire deal in Gaza would go a long way in quieting tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border. Biden introduced a three-phase deal four weeks ago that would lead to an extended truce and the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, but negotiations between Israel and Hamas appear to have stalled. A senior Biden administration official said Saturday that the U.S. has presented new language to Egypt and Qatar intermediaries aimed at trying to jumpstart the negotiations. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an effort that the White House has yet to publicly unveil. Without a cease-fire, there's still hope that talked-of Israeli plans to wind down major combat in the southern city of Rafah and elsewhere in Gaza could lead Hezbollah to temper its firing of rockets into Israel, said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. But without a cease-fire in Gaza, any temporary calm on the Lebanon-Israeli border “is not enough," Slim said.

U.S. Presses to Avert Wider War Between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon
Michael Crowley, Julian E. Barnes and Aaron Boxerman/The New York Times/June 29/2024
WASHINGTON — The United States is in the midst of an intense diplomatic push to prevent full-on war between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, as the risks rise that either side could initiate a broader regional fight. In recent days, U.S. officials have pressed their Israeli counterparts and passed messages to Hezbollah’s leaders with the goal of averting a wider regional conflict that they fear could draw in both Iran and the United States. Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, met with several Biden administration officials in Washington this week, in large measure to discuss the escalating tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. That visit followed one last week by Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, and its minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times. Also last week, a senior White House official, Amos Hochstein, who has assumed an informal diplomatic role mediating between the two sides, visited Israel and Lebanon. Hochstein warned Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, that the United States would not be able to restrain Israel should it commit to an all-out war with the militia group.
Archrivals for decades, Israel and Hezbollah have frequently exchanged fire along Israel’s northern border. After the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7 triggered a blistering Israeli assault in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah began firing at Israel, mainly against Israeli military targets in northern Israel, to show solidarity with Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. The fighting has intensified in recent weeks, and Israel’s reduced combat operations in Gaza, where it has greatly weakened Hamas, have freed up more of its forces for a possible offensive in the north. The nightmare scenario for U.S. officials would be an escalation in which, for a second time, Iran and Israel directly exchange blows. In another such round, the United States might not be able to control the escalatory tit-for-tat as it did in April. For now, U.S. officials believe that both Israel and Hezbollah would prefer to reach a diplomatic solution.
During his visit to Washington, Gallant told officials in the Biden administration that Israel did not want a full-scale war with Hezbollah but that it was prepared to hit the group hard if provoked much further.
Among the officials who met with Gallant were Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and the CIA director, William J. Burns.
“The U.S. priority is de-escalation,” said David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the Trump administration. “Neither side wants a war.”Hezbollah was formed with help from Iran to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982. A much more formidable fighting force than Hamas, Hezbollah has amassed thousands of rockets capable of devastating Israeli cities. U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah is intent on showing support for Hamas by striking across the border but has been trying to avoid giving Israel an excuse to launch a cross-border incursion. U.S. officials believe the Israeli government is divided over the wisdom of opening a bigger front in the north. Some Israeli officials, including Gallant, argued after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks that Israel should have responded by trying to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah. Gallant’s position has since shifted, according to U.S. officials. He now says opening a new front would be ill-advised, the officials said. But U.S. officials and analysts say the risk that the war might spread remains dangerously high. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is facing growing political pressure to reestablish security in northern Israel, from which some 60,000 residents have been evacuated. Many are hoping to return to the area before the new school year begins in September, but most say they will not feel safe enough to go back as long as Hezbollah’s attacks continue. Adding to the risk is uncertainty among the United States, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran about one another’s true intentions.
“There is a possibility of pulling this latest escalation and expansion of the conflict back from the brink,” warned Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “But there are four actors engaged in a dangerous game of chicken, and the prospect for miscalculation is high.”“Many in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the risk tolerance of the current Iranian leadership,” she added. U.S. officials do not have direct contact with Hezbollah because the United States considers it a terrorist group. Hochstein delivers his messages to its leaders through Shiite Lebanese politicians informally aligned with the group.“He carried a very strong message, which is that if you think that we can dictate what they do or not, you’re wrong,” said Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that supports democracy in Lebanon and U.S.-Lebanon ties. “You have to understand that America does not have the leverage to stop Israel.”
Gabriel, a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco, said he had direct knowledge of the communication. A U.S. official confirmed that Hochstein had delivered the message. In addition to urging both sides to show restraint, Hochstein has been trying to persuade Hezbollah to withdraw its forces farther back from Israel’s border, as required by a United Nations Security Council resolution passed after a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. On Sunday, Netanyahu said in a televised interview that Israel was demanding “the physical distancing of Hezbollah” from the border to remove the threat posed by the armed group. “I hope we are not forced to do so militarily, but if we are — we will be up to the task,” he said. A larger clash between Israel and Lebanon could be devastating for both sides. Israel inflicted so much damage on Lebanon in 2006 that the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would not have conducted the operation that launched the war if he had known the damage that would result. But Israel would emerge bloodied as well. Hezbollah claims it could launch 3,000 rockets and missiles a day, a barrage with the potential to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
And even if Iran did not become directly involved, its other proxy forces, including Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen, could step up their attacks on Israeli and U.S. interests.
Analysts and officials say that a halt to the fighting in Gaza would be the surest way to defuse the friction between Israel and Hezbollah. But a recent plan to stop the fighting endorsed by Biden and the Security Council is in doubt following added demands by Hamas and equivocal statements by Netanyahu.
Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, said Hochstein was optimistic that Israel’s plan to transition to lower-intensity fighting in Gaza after ending its offensive in Rafah could open a diplomatic window for a truce with Hezbollah.
“He believes that this will provide Hezbollah with a ladder with which it can climb down from its daily solidarity with the battle in Gaza,” Hanegbi said Tuesday during a discussion at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel. “And that means it will be possible to talk about a settlement in the north.”
One growing concern for U.S. officials is the welfare of American diplomats and citizens in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. On Thursday, the State Department issued an advisory again warning Americans not to travel to Lebanon and stressing that Lebanon’s government “cannot guarantee the protection of U.S. citizens against sudden outbreaks of violence and armed conflict.”*c.2024 The New York Times Company

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 29-30/2024
The US has sent at least 14,000 of its massive, highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs to Israel since October 7, report says
Rebecca Rommen/Business Insider/June 29, 2024
The US has sent Israel at least 14,000 2,000-pound bombs since October 7, Reuters reported. Highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs have been used to devastating effect in Israel's offensive in Gaza. US military aid to Israel has totaled $6.5 billion since the start of the war on Hamas, a US official has said. The US has shipped at least 14,000 MK-84 2,000-pound bombs to Israel since the start of the war in Gaza in October, Reuters reported, citing two US officials briefed on an updated list of shipments. The MK-84 is one of Israel's largest and most destructive bombs. A New York Times investigation last year found that Israel had "routinely" used such sized bombs in zones it had declared safe for civilians during the first six weeks of the war. The Joint Program Executive Office Armaments & Ammunition says the MK-84 bomb, which the US used extensively in the Gulf War from 1990-1991, has a blast and fragmentation mechanism and is ideally suited for strikes on "buildings, rail yards, and lines of communication."The US previously paused one shipment of the 2,000-pound bomb due to concerns over the impact it could have in densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip. Munitions experts say bombs of such size are rarely dropped by US forces in densely populated areas anymore, per The Times. "The use of 2,000-pound bombs in an area as densely populated as Gaza means it will take decades for communities to recover," John Chappell, an advisor on legal and policy issues at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, previously told CNN.
US support for Israel
The US has also shipped 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire missiles, and other munitions to Israel since October 7, the two officials told Reuters. Tom Karako, a weapons expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the agency that this clearly demonstrated "a substantial level of support from the United States for our Israeli allies."He added that they were the kind of munitions that Israel would use against Hamas or in a potential battle with Hezbollah. While the full extent of US weapons shipments to Israel remains unclear, a senior Biden administration official recently confirmed that the US has delivered $6.5 billion in security assistance since October 7. With the Palestinian death toll now standing at more than 37,000, according to the Gaza health ministry, scrutiny of the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) actions has mounted, with Biden pausing a shipment of bombs to Israel amid concerns they would be used in its Rafah offensive without a plan for the civilians there. But Biden is yet to take any further action to condition military aid deliveries, and the latest Reuters report on shipment details suggests there has been little reduction in the amount being delivered to Israel. Domestically, Biden's support for Israel has become a contentious issue, particularly among young voters. Business Insider reported in May that Biden's reelection campaign was struggling to shore up support among those critical of his support for Israel. Tensions have also been brewing between Israel and the US in spite of the continuing aid deliveries, with Biden recently saying that there was "every reason" for people to think Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was prolonging the war in Gaza to stay in power. Business Insider contacted the IDF and the Pentagon for comment.

US proposes new language to revive stalled Israel-Hamas ceasefire efforts
Arlette Saenz, Ibrahim Dahman and Lucas Lilieholm, CNN/June 29, 2024
The United States has proposed new language to bridge gaps in discussions for a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, a senior US administration official said Friday. The three-phase Israeli proposal, outlined by US President Joe Biden last month, sets out conditions intended to lead to the eventual release of all remaining hostages being held by Hamas, in return for a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. But dashing hopes for a breakthrough, earlier this month Hamas responded to the Israeli proposal with further amendments. Israel has also not publicly accepted the plan.
CNN contributor Barak Ravid first reported the news in Axios, citing three unnamed sources with direct knowledge. The US is pushing Egypt and Qatar to press Hamas to accept the change in language, according to Ravid. One source cited by Ravid said that if Hamas accepts the new language, it will “allow to close the deal.”According to the sources cited by Ravid, the new language presented by the US focuses on the period during the first phase of the proposal where Israel and Hamas are expected to start more negotiations with the intention of activating a second phase, where a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza is implemented. The proposed US language aims to bridge a current disagreement triggered by Hamas’ demands that negotiations for the second phase only focus on the number and identity of Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails as part of the deal, while Israel wants to have the ability to raise demilitarization of Gaza and other issues, the sources said according to Ravid. CNN has not seen the latest proposal and has reached out to Qatari and Egyptian officials. Relatives and supporters of Israelis taken hostage by Hamas are calling on Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure their release. - Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images Relatives and supporters of Israelis taken hostage by Hamas are calling on Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure their release. - Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images
The second phase of the proposal has been a source of disagreement in the months-long negotiation between Israel and Hamas. Hamas has called for a permanent end to the war and a complete Israeli military withdrawal, while Israeli politicians, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, had vowed for the continuation of the war until Hamas are eliminated. On Sunday, Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 he was ready to make “a partial deal” with Hamas to return only some hostages from Gaza, in comments that were at odds with the proposal. Netanyahu added that Israel will continue fighting in the enclave after the ceasefire. He walked back the comments a day later after fierce backlash from families of the hostages and several Israeli politicians. Fighting meanwhile continued in a neighborhood of Gaza City, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and local officials, months after Israel said it had dismantled Hamas in the north. “Troops are continuing operational activity against terror targets in the Shejaiya area, fighting simultaneously above and below ground,” the IDF said, adding that the Israeli Air Force “struck terror targets and armed terrorist cells” as part of their operations in the neighborhood, which began on Thursday. Gaza’s civil defense officials said they had received numerous calls for help from injured people trapped by fighting in Shujaiya. “A number of victims are still under the rubble and on the roads, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza said. The total number of Palestinians killed in Gaza since Oct. 7 is now 37,834, while the number of injuries has risen to 86,858.

No progress in Gaza ceasefire talks with Israel, says Hamas official
Reuters/June 29, 2024
A senior official of the militant Islamist group Hamas, Osama Hamdan, said on Saturday there has been no progress in ceasefire talks with Israel over the Gaza war. The Palestinian group is still ready to "deal positively" with any ceasefire proposal that ends the war, Hamdan told a news conference in Beirut. Arab mediators' efforts, backed by the United States, have so far failed to conclude a ceasefire. Hamas says any deal must end the war and bring full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel says it will accept only temporary pauses in fighting until Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, is eradicated. Hamdan also blamed the United States for applying pressure on Hamas to accept Israel's conditions. "Once again, Hamas is ready to deal positively with any proposal that secures a permanent ceasefire, a comprehensive withdrawal from Gaza Strip and a serious swap deal," said Hamdan, referring to a potential swap of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinians in Israeli prisons. When Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7 they killed around 1,200 people and seized more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. The Israeli offensive in retaliation has so far killed nearly 38,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and has left the heavily built-up coastal enclave in ruins.

Gazans living in ‘unbearable’ conditions: UNRWA
REUTERS/June 29, 2024
CAIRO: A senior official of the militant Islamist group Hamas, Osama Hamdan, said on Saturday there has been no progress in ceasefire talks with Israel over the Gaza war. The Palestinian group is still ready to “deal positively” with any ceasefire proposal that ends the war, Hamdan told a news conference in Beirut. Arab mediators’ efforts, backed by the United States, have so far failed to conclude a ceasefire, with both sides blaming each other for the impasse. Hamas says any deal must end the war and bring full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel says it will accept only temporary pauses in fighting until Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, is eradicated. Hamdan also blamed the United States for applying pressure on Hamas to accept Israel’s conditions. “Once again, Hamas is ready to deal positively with any proposal that secures a permanent ceasefire, a comprehensive withdrawal from Gaza Strip and a serious swap deal,” said Hamdan, referring to a potential swap of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
When Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7 they killed around 1,200 people and seized more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. The Israeli offensive in retaliation has so far killed nearly 38,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry, and has left the heavily built-up coastal enclave in ruins. The Gaza health ministry does not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants but officials say most of the dead are civilians. Israel has lost more than 300 soldiers in Gaza and says at least a third of the Palestinian dead are fighters. Palestinian health officials said Israeli military strikes across the enclave had so far killed at least 35 people and wounded others on Saturday. The Israeli military on Saturday announced the death of two soldiers killed in combat in northern Gaza, as Israeli forces pressed on with an offensive in the Shejaia neighborhood in Gaza City. Residents said tanks advanced deeper into several districts including the area around the local market and there was heavy fire from the air and the ground. The armed wing of Hamas and the allied Islamic Jihad reported fierce fighting, saying fighters fired anti-tank rockets and mortar bombs against the forces operating there. The Israeli military said dozens of Palestinian gunmen were killed over the past two days in close quarters combat and airstrikes in Shejaia, after forces encircled what it described as a civilian area converted by Hamas into a militant compound. “In the area, the troops located observation posts, weapons, enemy drones and a long-range rocket launcher near the schools,” the military said in a statement. Hamas has denied assertions that it operates in civilian areas such as schools and hospitals. More than eight months into Israel’s air and ground war in Gaza, militants continued to stage attacks on Israeli forces, operating in areas that the Israeli army said it had gained control over months ago. Israeli leaders have said in the past week that the intense phase of the war is approaching its end, and that the next stage of the offensive will mainly be smaller-scale operations meant to stop Hamas from reassembling. Meanwhile Israeli forces operating in several districts in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, killed several Palestinians and forced families living in the far western edge of the city along the coastal areas to head northwards, according to Palestinian medical officials and residents. Israel has said its military operations in Rafah are aimed at eradicating the last armed battalions of Hamas.

The UN starts to move tons of aid from US-built pier after security fears suspended work there
Julia Frankel And Wafaa Shurafa/JERUSALEM (AP) /June 29, 2024
— Humanitarian workers have started moving tons of aid that piled up at a United States-built pier off the Gaza coast to warehouses in the besieged territory, the United Nations said Saturday, an important step as the U.S. considers whether to resume pier operations after yet another pause due to heavy seas.
It was not clear when the aid might reach Palestinians in Gaza, where experts have warned of the high risk of famine as the war between Israel and Hamas militants is in its ninth month. This is the first time trucks have moved aid from the pier since the U.N.’s World Food Program suspended operations there due to security concerns on June 9. Millions of pounds of aid have piled up. In just the last week, more than 10 million pounds were moved ashore, according to the U.S. military. A WFP spokesperson, Abeer Etefa, told The Associated Press this is a one-time operation until the beach is cleared of the aid and is being done to avoid spoilage. Further U.N. operations at the pier depend on U.N. security assessments, Etefa added. The U.N. is investigating whether the pier was used in an Israeli military operation last month to rescue three hostages.
If WFP trucks successfully bring the aid to warehouses inside Gaza, that could affect the U.S. military’s decision whether to reinstall the pier, which was removed due to weather Friday. U.S. officials said they were considering not reinstalling the pier because of the possibility that the aid would not be picked up.
Even if the U.N. decides to keep transporting aid from the pier into Gaza, lawlessness around humanitarian convoys will be a further challenge to distribution. The convoys have come under attack in Gaza. While most aid deliveries come by land, restrictions around border crossings and on what items can enter Gaza have further hurt a population that was already dependent on humanitarian aid before the war.
The June 9 pause at the pier came after the Israeli military used a nearby area to fly out hostages after their rescue in a raid that killed more than 270 Palestinians, prompting a U.N. review over concerns that aid workers’ safety and neutrality may have been compromised. Meanwhile Saturday, a senior Biden administration official said the U.S. has presented new language to intermediaries Egypt and Qatar aimed at trying to jump-start the stalled Israel-Hamas negotiations. The official, who requested anonymity to discuss the effort that the White House has yet to publicly unveil, said the revised text focuses on negotiations that are to start between Israel and Hamas during the first phase of a three-phase deal that President Joe Biden laid out nearly a month ago. The first phase calls for a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The proposal called for the parties to negotiate the terms of the second phase during the 42 days of phase one. Under the current proposal, Hamas could release all the remaining men, both civilians and soldiers. In return, Israel could free an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The releases won’t occur until “sustainable calm” takes effect and all Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza.
The new proposed language, which the official did not detail, aims to find a workaround of differences between Israel and Hamas about the parameters of the negotiations between phase one and phase two. Hamas wants those negotiations centered on the number and identity of Palestinian prisoners who will be released from Israeli jails in exchange for remaining living Israeli soldiers and male hostages held in Gaza, the official said. Israel wants the negotiations to be much broader and include the demilitarization of the territory controlled by Hamas. More than 37,800 Palestinians have been killed in the war since it began with Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its toll. The ministry said the bodies of 40 people killed by Israeli strikes had been brought to local hospitals over the past 24 hours. At least two people were killed and six injured, including a child, in a strike in Bureij camp in central Gaza. The Oct. 7 Hamas attack killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and another 250 people were taken hostage. Israeli forces have been battling Palestinian militants in an eastern part of Gaza City over the last week. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have fled their homes, according to the U.N.“It’s like the first weeks of the invasion,” one resident, Mahmoud al-Masry said of the intensity of the fighting. “Many people were killed. Many houses were destroyed. They strike anything moving.” The Israeli military acknowledged an operation against Hamas fighters in Shijaiyah and on Saturday noted “close-quarters combat.”Elsewhere, thousands of Palestinians who remained in Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah fled Friday for Muwasi, a crowded coastal tent camp designated by the Israeli army as a safe zone. Some told the AP they evacuated because Israeli gunfire and missiles had come close to where they were sheltering. Over 1.3 million Palestinians have fled Rafah since Israel’s incursion into the city in early May, while aid groups warn there are no safe places to go. With the heat in Gaza reaching over 32 degrees Celsius (89 Fahrenheit), many displaced people have found tents unbearable. The territory has been without electricity since Israel cut off power as part of the war, and Israel also stopped pumping drinking water to the enclave. “Death is better than it, it is a grave,” said Barawi Bakroun, who was displaced from Gaza City, as others fanned themselves with pieces of cardboard.

Gazans living in ‘unbearable’ conditions: UNRWA
AFP/June 29, 2024
GAZA STRIP, Palestinian Territories: Gazans are forced to live in bombed-out buildings or camp next to giant piles of trash, a United Nations spokeswoman said Friday, denouncing the “unbearable” conditions in the besieged territory. Louise Wateridge from UNRWA, the UN agency supporting Palestinian refugees, described the “extremely dire” living conditions in the Gaza Strip. “It’s really unbearable,” she told reporters in Geneva, via video-link from central Gaza. Wateridge, who returned Wednesday after four weeks outside the territory, said that even in that time the situation had “significantly deteriorated.”
“Today, it has to be the worst it’s ever been. I don’t doubt that tomorrow again will be the worst it’s ever been,” she said. Nearly nine months into the war between Israel and Hamas, Wateridge said the Gaza Strip had been “destroyed.” She said she had been “shocked” on returning to Khan Yunis in central Gaza. “The buildings are skeletons, if at all. Everything is rubble,” she said. “And yet people are living there again. “There’s no water there, there’s no sanitation, there’s no food. And now, people are living back in these buildings that are empty shells,” with sheets covering the gaps left by blown-out walls.
With no bathrooms, “people are relieving themselves anywhere they can.” Meanwhile, the health ministry in Gaza said Saturday that at least 37,834 people have been killed during nearly nine months of war between Israel and Palestinian militants.The toll includes at least 69 deaths over the past 48 hours, a ministry statement said, adding that 86,858 people had been wounded in the Gaza Strip since the war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7.

Palestinians flee as Israeli forces return to Gaza’s north
MENEKSE TOKYAY/Arab News/June 30, 2024
ANKARA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signaled a possible restoration of relations with Syria’s Assad regime in a surprising move that marks a significant departure from years of hostility between the two nations. Erdogan’s comments, which were made after Friday prayers, suggest a willingness to revive diplomatic ties with Damascus, emphasizing historical precedent and family ties as potential foundations for future engagement. “There is no reason why it should not happen,” Erdogan said. “Just as we kept our relations very lively in the past, we even had talks between our families with Assad. It is certainly not possible to say that this will not happen in the future. It can happen; the Syrian people are our brothers.”The Turkish leader’s comments echo similar sentiments recently expressed by Syrian President Bashar Assad, who has indicated his willingness to pursue steps toward normalization, provided they respect Syria’s sovereignty and contribute to counter-terrorism efforts. The remarks came during a meeting with Alexander Lavrentiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to Syria. The concurrent statements are seen as part of a broader effort to reconcile Ankara and Damascus, but the path to rapprochement remains fraught with uncertainty and complexity. Erdogan, then prime minister of Turkiye, hosted Assad in 2009 for a family holiday in the Aegean resort of Bodrum, and they enjoyed amicable visits to nurture their friendship. But since severing all ties with the Assad regime in 2011, Turkiye has been a vocal supporter of his opponents in Syria and called for the ousting of Assad from power.
Ankara’s involvement has escalated with several cross-border military operations and the establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria, in which Turkish troops are stationed. The Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers met in Moscow last year, marking the highest-level contact between the two countries since the start of the Syrian Civil War. But the talks, along with an earlier meeting between the two countries’ defense ministers, did not bring about any change in bilateral relations. Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Levant studies at the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, says there is a glimmer of hope for a resumption of the dialogue process. He told Arab News: “There have been some developments in recent weeks. It is said that Turkish and Syrian officials could meet in Baghdad with the mediation of Iraq, and surprising developments in Turkish-Syrian relations are expected in the coming period.” Efforts were being made to bring the parties together, he added. Orhan believes that with Russia’s softening position in Ukraine, the Kremlin has begun to pay more attention to Turkish-Syrian relations, and the Gaza conflict also requires new regional dynamics and presents new security challenges for the Assad regime, which necessitates closer Turkish-Syrian relations.
He said: “Discussions about a possible US withdrawal after the upcoming presidential elections are another factor to consider.” The Assad regime has recently been in talks with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units and “is trying to corner Turkiye by signaling that it could reach an agreement with the YPG if Turkiye does not accept its conditions, while at the same time opening channels with Turkiye,” he added. Ankara considers the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a terrorist group closely linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has been waging a decades-long insurgency in southeast Turkiye. Experts say that both parties are trying to consolidate their positions in line with regional changes and consider their red lines for domestic security concerns. But Orhan does not expect Turkish troops to withdraw in the short term, and added: “First, there may be an agreement between the parties on how to deal with the YPG. “At that point Turkiye may have to take some steps regarding its relationship with the opposition. However, there will not be a situation where the Syrian opposition is completely abandoned or its support is cut off. A gradual road map can be agreed.” Orhan expects that a mechanism of guarantees involving Russia or even Iran could be agreed upon for a road map for withdrawal from Syria.
He said: “Gradual steps will be taken based on criteria such as the complete elimination of the PKK/YPG threat and the creation of conditions for the safe return of Syrian refugees to their country. “A common will against the PKK is not very likely at this stage because the Syrian regime still wants to use the YPG as a trump card against Turkiye. It believes that after a possible US withdrawal, it can reach an agreement with the YPG and solve this problem with minor concessions.”Experts believe a partnership between Ankara and Damascus, like the one between Iraq and Turkiye, is unlikely at the moment. But Orhan believes common ground can be found in the fight against the PKK, depending on the gradual steps taken by Turkiye.
He said: “Instead of a joint military operation, Turkiye’s continued military moves against the YPG, followed by an agreement on areas that Syrian regime forces can retake and control, can be agreed upon.”Turkiye currently hosts 3.1 million Syrian refugees, according to official figures. One of Ankara’s expectations from a possible rapprochement between Turkiye and Syria would be the safe return of these refugees to their homeland.Orhan said: “The return of Syrian refugees can only be possible after a lasting solution in Syria. “It is a long-term, difficult problem to solve. From the Assad regime’s point of view, it sees this as a bargaining chip and a burden on Turkiye’s shoulders.” He added that the return of Syrian refugees was also seen as providing a risk factor for the Assad regime. The refugees are seen as “people who fled the country, and it is questionable how willing Assad is to repatriate them,” said Orhan.
Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and current chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM, has spoken of the profound shifts in regional security dynamics in the wake of the war in Gaza and amid uncertainties surrounding US policy in the Middle East, particularly in Syria.
He told Arab News: “For Syria, which now faces an even more unpredictable security environment, this forces the Syrian leadership to reassess its position for negotiations with Turkiye in response to the evolving geopolitical realities.”Ulgen believes that from Turkiye’s point of view, this represents a potentially favorable opportunity, provided that Syria is willing to reconsider the terms of engagement that have so far prevented meaningful dialogue. He added: “Until now, these conditions have been a major obstacle to starting a substantive negotiation process.”Ulgen said that Syria’s willingness to revise these conditions will be crucial in determining whether formal negotiations can begin.He added: “The critical question now is whether Damascus will stick to its preconditions, some of which may prove untenable, such as the demand for an immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops from border areas.” Progress in reconciliation efforts would depend on the lifting of such conditions, Ulgen said.

Police officer shot with arrow in suspected terror attack at Israeli embassy in Serbia
Mostafa Salem and Eve Brennan, CNN/June 29, 2024
A police officer at the Israeli Embassy in the Serbian capital Belgrade was shot in the neck with a crossbow in a suspected terror attack on Saturday, CNN affiliate N1 reported. The police officer shot the attacker who later died, according to N1. The officer has been taken to hospital and will need an operation to remove an arrow from his neck. Serbia’s Interior Minister Ivica Dacic called the incident a “terrorist attack,” saying several people believed to have been linked to the incident had been arrested. Dacic said there were indications the incident involved individuals “already known to the police and security services - it is about members of the Wahhabi movement,” referring to a strict branch of Islam. A spokesperson for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs also called the incident an “attempted terrorist attack” in a statement. None of its employees were wounded, the ministry said. Israel-linked institutions in Europe have been on high alert for potential attacks in the wake of Israel’s ongoing deadly war in Gaza, launched after Islamist militant group Hamas carried out cross-border raids in Israel on October 7. Many European countries have ramped up security measures around Jewish establishments including places of worship.

10 Ukrainians held prisoner for years in Russia return home after Vatican mediation
Hanna Arhirova/KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/June 29, 2024
Ten Ukrainian civilians held prisoner for years by Russia arrived in Kyiv overnight Saturday after the mediation of the Vatican, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. They were freed Friday. Some had been captured years before Russia’s full-scale invasion. The pope has said the Holy See has been involved in past prisoner swaps during the Ukraine war. Among those freed was Nariman Dzhelyal, deputy head of the Mejlis, a representative body of Crimean Tatars that was relocated to Kyiv after Russia seized the peninsula in 2014. He was taken from Crimea, where he lived despite the annexation, one year before the war. The chief of Mejlis, Refat Chubarov, and Crimean Tatar leader Mustafa Dzhemilev embraced him after nearly three years of captivity. Dzhelyal said many Ukrainians remain in captivity: “We cannot leave them there because the conditions, both psychological and physical, are very frightening there.”
The former prisoners, wrapped in blue and yellow flags, reunited with families in Kyiv and called those who couldn’t be there. For some, the separation had lasted many years. “I really want to hug you. I’ll be with you soon, Mommy,” said Isabella Pekh, the daughter of freed art historian Olena Pekh, through a video call. “I’m so sorry I couldn’t meet you.” For almost six years, Isabella Pekh spoke at international conferences and appealed to ambassadors for help in freeing her mother, who was detained in the occupied part of the Donetsk region. “It was six years of hell that words cannot describe. But I knew I had my homeland, I had people who loved me, I had my daughter,” Olena Pekh said. Two Ukrainian Greek Catholic priests were among those freed. One, Bohdan Heleta, was detained in 2022 in his church in the occupied city of Berdiansk in the southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia. “There are a lot of our men and women there," Heleta said of those who remain imprisoned. "They need help, concrete help. They are waiting for it.”Pope Francis in an address on Saturday called for the release of all prisoners in the war, and thanked God for the liberation of the two priests.
Zelenskyy in a post on X wrote that “I am grateful to everyone who helped. I thank our team working to free the prisoners. I also want to acknowledge the efforts of the Holy See in bringing these people home.” According to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, 3,310 Ukrainians have already been released from Russian captivity since Russia's full-scale invasion. Many thousands, both civilians and military personnel, remain imprisoned.

UNESCO finds Islamic State group-era bombs in Mosul mosque walls, years after the defeat of IS
Abdulrahman Zeyad/BAGHDAD (AP) /June 29, 2024
The U.N. cultural agency has discovered five bombs hidden within the walls of the historic al-Nouri Mosque in the city of Mosul in northern Iraq, a remnant of the Islamic State militant group’s rule over the area, UNESCO said in a statement Saturday. The mosque, famous for its 12th-century leaning minaret, was destroyed by IS in 2017 and has been a focal point of UNESCO’s restoration efforts since 2020. The U.N. agency said that five large-scale explosive devices, designed for significant destruction, were found inside the southern wall of the Prayer Hall on Tuesday.“These explosive devices were concealed within a specially rebuilt section of the wall,” the statement said. “Iraqi authorities were promptly notified, secured the area, and the situation is now fully under control.” It added that “one bomb has been defused and removed, while the remaining four are interconnected and will be safely disposed of in the coming days.” Iraqi authorities have requested that UNESCO halt all reconstruction operations at al-Nouri mosque and evacuate the entire complex until the devices are disarmed.IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared an Islamic caliphate from the mosque a decade ago on June 29, 2014, leading to its destruction when extremists blew it up during the battle to liberate Mosul in 2017. The discovery of these bombs underscores ongoing challenges in clearing Mosul of explosives and revitalizing its devastated urban areas. International efforts, supported by the United Nations, focus on mine clearance and aiding in the city’s recovery. Despite progress, much of Mosul’s old city remains in ruins, marked by minefield warning signs, highlighting the complexity of post-conflict reconstruction. UNESCO aims to complete the full reconstruction of al-Nouri Mosque by December, “finally erasing the stigma of the Daesh occupation,” the statement said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group's name. A decade after the Islamic State group declared its caliphate in large parts of Iraq and Syria, the extremists no longer control any land, have lost many prominent leaders and are mostly out of the world news headlines. Still, the group continues to recruit members and claim responsibility for deadly attacks around the world, including lethal operations in Iran and Russia earlier this year that left scores dead. Its sleeper cells in Syria and Iraq still carry out attacks against government forces in both countries as well as U.S.-backed Syrian fighters, at a time when Iraq’s government is negotiating with Washington over a possible withdrawal of U.S. troops.
**Abdulrahman Zeyad, The Associated Press

Khamenei protege, sole moderate to battle in Iran's presidential run-off
Parisa Hafezi/DUBAI (Reuters)/June 29, 2024
A moderate lawmaker will face Iran supreme leader's protege in a run-off presidential election on July 5 after the country's interior ministry said on Saturday that no candidate secured enough votes in the first round of voting. Friday's vote to replace Ebrahim Raisi after his death in a helicopter crash came down to a tight race between a low-profile lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in a field of four candidates, and former Revolutionary Guards member Saeed Jalili. The interior ministry said neither secured the 50% plus one vote of over 25 million ballots cast required to win outright, with Pezeshkian leading with over 10 million votes ahead of Jalili with over 9.4 million votes. Power in Iran ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the result will not herald any major policy shift on Iran's nuclear programme or its support for militia groups across the Middle East.
But the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's policy. The clerical establishment hoped for a high turnout as it faces a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom. However, turnout in Friday's vote hit a historic low of about 40%, based on interior ministry count released on Saturday. The election comes at a time of escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear programme. With Iran's supreme leader now 85, it is likely that the next president will be closely involved in the process of choosing a successor to Khamenei, who seeks a fiercely loyal president who can ensure a smooth eventual succession to his own position, insiders and analysts say. Anti-Western views of Jalili, Iran's former uncompromising nuclear negotiator, offer a contrast to those of Pezeshkian. Analysts said Jalili's win would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic's foreign and domestic policy. But a victory for mild-mannered lawmaker Pezeshkian might help ease tensions with the West, improve chances of economic reform, social liberalisation and political pluralism. Pezeshkian, faithful to Iran's theocratic rule, is backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years. "We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behaviour toward women," Pezeshkian said after casting his vote. He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.
The unrest sparked by Amini's death spiralled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical rulers in years.

Iran presidential candidate Jalili is fiercely loyal to Khamenei
Parisa Hafezi/June 29, 2024
Saeed Jalili, a zealous ideologue loyal to Iran's supreme leader, plans to resolve the country's social, political and economic ills by adhering rigidly to the hardline ideals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution if he wins the country's presidential election.Jalili was narrowly beaten in Friday's first round vote by moderate Massoud Pezeshkian but the two men will now face a run-off election on July 5, since Pezeshkian did not secure the majority of 50% plus one vote of ballots cast needed to win outright. Jalili, a former diplomat, describes himself as a pious believer in "velayat-e faqih", or rule by supreme jurisprudence, the system of Islamic government that provides the basis for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's paramount position. His staunch defence of the 45-year-old Islamic revolution appears designed to appeal to hardline, religiously-devout lower-income voters but offered little to young and urban Iranians frustrated by curbs on political and social freedoms. Once Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Jalili, 58, was one of four candidates in the election for a successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. He is currently a member of a body that mediates in disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council, a body that screens election candidates for their political and Islamic qualifications. A staunch anti-Westerner, Jalili's advance to the second round signals the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic's foreign and domestic policy, analysts said. Foreign and nuclear policy are the domain of Khamenei, who wields supreme command of the armed forces, has the power to declare war and appoints senior figures including armed forces commanders, judicial heads and the head of the state media. However, the president can influence the tone of foreign and domestic policy. Insiders and analysts say Khamenei, 85, seeks a strongly loyal president to run the government day-to-day and to be a trusted ally who can ensure stability, amid manoeuvring over the eventual succession to his own position.
UNCOMPROMISING STANCE
Jalili is an opponent of Tehran's 2015 nuclear pact with major powers that was negotiated on the Iranian side by a group of pragmatic officials open to detente with the West. Then-President Donald Trump reneged on the accord in 2018 and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy. With the possible return of Trump to the White House after November's U.S. presidential election and Jalili's possible election win, the deal's resurgence seems improbable. Before the nuclear pact, Jalili served as Iran's top nuclear negotiator for five years from 2007, a period in which Tehran took a confrontational and uncompromising approach to discussions with global powers about its uranium enrichment programme. In those years, three U.N. Security Council resolutions were imposed on Iran, and several attempts to resolve the dispute failed.
During the current election campaign, Jalili was heavily criticised in debates on state TV by other candidates for his uncompromising nuclear stance and his opposition to Iran signing up to two conventions on financial crime recommended by the Financial Action Taskforce, an international crime watchdog. Some hardliners, like Jalili, argue that the acceptance of the Convention on Combating the Financing of Terrorism and the Convention on Combating Transnational Organized Crime could hamper Iran's support for its paramilitary proxies across the region, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.
PRODUCT OF THE REVOLUTION
Jalili has been trying for the presidency for years. He finished third in the 2013 contest, and stood again in 2021 but eventually withdrew to support Raisi. Born in the holy Muslim Shi'ite city of Mashhad in 1965, Jalili lost his right leg in the 1980s in fighting during the Iran-Iraq war and joined the Foreign Ministry in 1989. Despite his hardline views, he is outwardly soft-spoken. He gained a doctorate in political science at Imam Sadiq University, a training ground for Iranian leaders, where he wrote a study entitled "Foreign policy of (the) Prophet of Islam", according to a biography that was for a time posted on the Foreign Ministry website for a time. For four years from 2001, he worked at Khamenei's office. When hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in 2005, he chose Jalili to be his adviser, and within months made him deputy foreign minister. Jalili was appointed in 2007 as the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a post that automatically made him chief nuclear negotiator.

France's army chief says small drones will lose their battlefield advantage. But Ukraine likely won't be changing tack anytime soon.
Rebecca Rommen/Business Insider/June 29, 2024
Small drones dominate Ukraine's battlefield, but their advantage won't last, France's army chief said. Small, relatively cheap drones have been hugely successful weapons in the war so far. However, experts told BI that advancing countermeasures would limit small drones' capabilities. Small aerial drones have dominated the battlefield in Ukraine, but according to French Army Chief of Staff Gen. Pierre Schill, they could soon lose their combat advantage. Speaking at the Eurosatory defense show in Paris on June 19, Schill said that their advantage represented merely "a moment in history," Defense News reported. "The life of impunity of small, very simple drones over the battlefield is a snapshot in time," Schill said. "Right now it's being exploited, that's clear, and we have to protect ourselves. Today, the sword, in the sense of the aerial drone, is powerful, more powerful than the shield. The shield is going to grow," he added.
The head of the French Army, General d'armee Pierre Schill inspects the officer cadets during Commissioning Course No. 232 Sovereign's Parade, at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, southwest of London on April 12, 2024, to mark the 120th anniversary of the Entente Cordiale.
The use of drones will likely fluctuate
Former British Army officer Christopher Lincoln-Jones told Business Insider that the use of small drones in warfare would likely "ebb and flow." He said: "What will happen is that, as artificial intelligence becomes better and better and the senses become better, medium-sized drones will dominate rather than the small ones.""Mini drones are limited by the fact that battery technology is not good enough for them yet. And although they can carry a small charge or weapon, they're not really good against military targets," Lincoln-Jones added. Greg Bagwell, the UK Royal Air Force's former Deputy Commander, told BI "there is some truth" to Schill's comments about the future of small drones in battle. "I think to say it's nearly had its day, and it's all over is probably a slight exaggeration. But I think it will get harder for them to operate as people now get wise to this threat. We'll start to see the counters maybe begin to take a higher position," he said. Small drones are at the forefront of the war in Ukraine
Small drones, particularly first-person view drones (FPVs), have been a trademark of Russia's war in Ukraine, with both sides weaponizing them against each other. FPV drones have had huge success on the battlefield so far, proving to be cheaper and more accurate than most artillery as they can be guided directly to their target. A NATO official told Foreign Policy magazine in April that more than two-thirds of the Russian tanks that had been destroyed by Ukraine in recent months had been targeted with FPVs. Ukraine has also pounded Russian oil refineries and airbases with drones as part of a widespread campaign to disrupt Russian military supplies and hamper the Russian air force.
Drone countermeasures are advancing
But Lincoln-Jones and Bagwell both echoed Gen. Schill's warnings that drone countermeasures are advancing and would increasingly render small drones less effective. "There will be all sorts of techniques being used to jam the signals, the video, or the GPS signal," Bagwell said. Schill said that electronic warfare — which uses the electromagnetic spectrum, including signals like radio, infrared, or radar, to disrupt an enemy's ability to use those signals itself — was already neutralizing 75% of drones deployed in Ukraine. "Unless you can encrypt and use direct line of sight to control your drone, you're very vulnerable to nearly every electronic warfare system," Lincoln-Jones said. "You just need to know what frequency the drone is operating on from the point of view of its commands." Nevertheless, current electronic warfare systems being used to defend against drone attacks have their limits. The use of such systems risks interfering with other technology, such as radios and cellphones that are in the drone's vicinity.
Drones remain key to Ukraine's military strategy
Drone production continues to surge in Ukraine despite the increasing number of defense systems employed against the technology. More than 200 companies now produce aerial drones in the country, and workers were producing around 50,000 FPVs a month by December, Forbes reported. Both sides are also pumping money into developing AI-powered drones that can bypass electronic warfare systems. This year, Ukraine also became one of the first countries ever to create a separate branch of its military dedicated to drone warfare. A recent report by the Atlantic Council said that Ukraine's drone strategy would now likely "continue to focus on flexibility, innovation, and the daily challenge of maintaining a technological advantage over Russia." Gen. Schill declined an interview with BI.

Terrorist attacks are on the rise in Russia as Putin remains 'distracted' by war in Ukraine
Cameron Manley/Sat, June 29, 2024
The attacks marked the latest in a series of major domestic security failures that have plagued Russia since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Such incidents have presented a major problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose reputation as a strongman able to guarantee security and order in Russia while also waging a war against Ukraine appears to be flailing. Earlier this month, security forces stormed a detention center in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don where six inmates linked to Islamic State had taken two guards hostage. The inmates were killed, and the hostages were freed, Russian news agency Tass reported, citing Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service. In March, gunmen entered the packed Crocus City Hall concert venue in Moscow, killing more than 140 people and leaving many more injured. Four men from Tajikistan were detained following the attack. Islamic State later claimed responsibility. In October, a mob of protesters also ransacked Dagestan's main airport in search of Jewish people to target.
North Caucasus
Russia's North Caucasus region has a long history of rebellion against Kremlin rule, especially in Chechnya, where Russia battled separatists in two bloody wars — in 1994-1996 and then in 1999-2009. But such violence became increasingly rare, with immense pressure from security services and developments in Syria and Iraq causing Islamic State's presence in the Caucasus to splinter, Mark Youngman, the founder of Threatologist, which analyzes Eurasian security risks and specializes in the North Caucasus, told BI. "Since 2017, there has been no organized insurgency — no infrastructure, no leadership — challenging Russia's presence," Youngman said. "Since that point, most jihadist violence has been perpetrated by isolated individuals and small groups — people inspired by jihadist ideology, but lacking resources and connections."Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following the shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow on March 22, 2024. Emergency services vehicles outside the burning Crocus City Hall. Nevertheless, Russia remained a "priority enemy of Islamic State," Webber said — something he noted has been exacerbated by Russia's "2015 intervention in Syria, expanded private military companies activities across Africa, and strengthened ties with Iran and the Taliban."Youngman said that part of the problem stems from Russia not taking "meaningful steps" to tackle the root causes that have fed support for radical ideologies in the region, such as "arbitrary behavior by the security services, human rights violations, poverty, corruption," and "lack of opportunities."Russia has instead relied on force to counter insurgency, Youngman said. Despite Sunday's incident being the second major terrorist attack in just three months, Russian security services "have not really changed their strategy," Harold Chambers, a political and security analyst specializing in the North Caucasus, told BI. "Dagestan's authorities have been focused on hunting Ukrainian agents, real or fake, and followers of online opposition members," Chambers said. "Thus, the presence of radical actors who were publicly known went unaddressed."Russia's security services "do not seem to possess the same level of intelligence about threats — or, if they do, they are not acting on it," Youngman added. They are "distracted by events in Ukraine."

The new Egyptian government, which is expected to announce its Cabinet members soon, faces numerous challenges, experts and analysts say.
MOHAMED AL-SHAMAA/Arab News/June 29, 2024
CAIRO: The new Egyptian government, which is expected to announce its Cabinet members soon, faces numerous challenges, experts and analysts say.
The recent announcement about changes to the government has sparked optimism and anticipation among Egyptians. People are hopeful of seeing improvements, including better living conditions and enhanced economic prospects.
Experts agree that economic reform is the most difficult challenge facing the government. These challenges could help reshape and redefine current policies, which are crucial in setting the government’s direction. This alignment must consider the domestic developments, global economic crises and the deep geopolitical tensions and conflicts surrounding the country externally. Economist Mohamed Sayed Gamal said: “The state must continue on the path of economic reform, focusing on attracting and increasing local and foreign investments, encouraging private sector growth and making every effort to curb rising prices, inflation and regulate markets.”The new government must aim to reduce inflation to its lowest levels by the end of 2026, he said. “A primary goal is to reduce the overall budget deficit and public debt while achieving a surplus by maintaining balanced financial stability amid the current crisis. This includes supporting productive sectors and those most affected by economic crises, improving infrastructure quality, and maintaining fair pricing policies for goods and services.”Gamal Abdel Hamid, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Studies, said: “Injecting new blood into the Egyptian government could lead to tangible changes on the ground, positively impacting citizens and increasing public support.”The most critical challenge was national security, he said. “The Egyptian state is committed to maintaining its national security amid regional and international challenges, focusing on combating terrorism and ensuring stability. “The new government should continue to engage with the issues previously tackled by the former government, including the recent Gaza conflict, where Egypt played a crucial role as a trusted mediator through its diplomatic mechanisms and relevant state institutions.”Another significant challenge was human development, Abdel Hamid said. It tops the new government’s priority list as per President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi’s directives, especially in the health and education sectors. Abdel Hamid said the new government “must continue to exert more effort to implement developmental projects to improve health, educational and social infrastructure and enhance service delivery mechanisms to meet the population’s growing needs.”Samira Al-Adl, a researcher at the Family Development Center, said: “One of the important challenges for the upcoming government is building a fair, cohesive society characterized by equality in economic, social and political rights and opportunities, with the highest degree of social integration. “This can be achieved by enacting laws that establish and expand social protection, empowering the most marginalized groups.”She referred to plans for a new personal status law ensuring justice for women, and suggested other legislation that combat discrimination and violence against women, such as the early marriage law, in addition to amendments to labor laws. Sheikh Fath Al-Qadi, an imam at the Ministry of Religious Endowments, said: “I believe that renewing religious discourse is a priority for the next government. “This can be achieved by increasing interest in initiatives related to creativity and culture and renewing the discourse to combat extremist ideologies and destructive thoughts while harnessing the broad youth base that makes up the majority of the population by training and qualifying them and enhancing the concept of patriotism among them.”

Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on June 29-30/2024
Today in History: Christians ‘Place Their Hope in the Lord Jesus Christ’ and Defeat Islam
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/Sat, June 29, 2024
Thanks to the efforts of Ferdinand III of Castile (aka Saint Ferdinand, or Fernando) today in history, Córdoba, which after the eighth century Muslim conquest of Spain had become one of the most important “abodes of Islam,” passed into “the hands of the accursed Christians—may Allah destroy them all!” (to quote from a disgruntled Muslim chronicler). Six months earlier, in December of 1235, a daring band of Christians, led by a few knights, stormed and took a portion of Córdoba’s eastern quarter. Word reached King Ferdinand in January of 1236, even as he was in mourning over the recent death of his thirty-year-old wife from childbirth complications. Through their envoy, the Spaniards “implored him to help them because they were placed in most grave peril.” Against the Muslim “multitude of Córdoba, they were very few” and “separated from the Moors only by a certain wall running almost through the middle of the city.” Though at a standstill, time, the envoy made clear, was not on the Christians’ side.
The king, who for years had been spearheading the Reconquista—the Christian attempt to liberate Spain from Islam—was heavily moved by such a heroic feat; and “the grief for the loss” of his wife “did not long suspend his warlike preparations.” On the same evening that the envoy arrived, Ferdinand’s advisors strongly warned him against setting out immediately, during winter; they cited impassable roads due to snow, rain and floods, and possible ambushes from the “innumerable multitude of people in Córdoba”—to say nothing of Ibn Hud, the de facto king of al-Andalus, who was even then headed to relieve the Muslim city. But Ferdinand “placed his hope in the Lord Jesus Christ and closed his ears” to all such talk. He was resolved to “aid his vassals who had exposed themselves to such a great danger in his service and for the honor of the Christian faith.” After sending word to his magnates in Castile and León to muster their forces, he set off for Córdoba on the very next morning—with only one hundred knights.
Despite the terrible road conditions, the 35-year-old king rode furiously through rain and sleet and reached the great Moorish city on February 7. Ibn Hud had arrived before him with a much greater force—reportedly thirty thousand infantry and five thousand horsemen—but, instead of awaiting and meeting the Castilians, and perhaps because they had soundly defeated him earlier at the battle of Jerez in 1231, he unexpectedly withdrew back to Seville.
As might be expected, the holed up Christians, “who were then placed in such great danger in Córdoba,” burst in joy on seeing their king, this man “who had exposed himself to much danger so that he could succor his people!” asserts the chronicler. After rescuing the daring band of Christians, Ferdinand laid Córdoba to siege; as Christian fighters continued to pour in from León, Castile, and Galicia, the noose tightened around the Muslim city.
Five months later, on today’s date, June 29, 1236, Córdoba—for centuries, “the ornament of the world,” the ancient seat of the Umayyad caliphs and Muslim Spain’s “most stalwart shield and bastion against the Christians”— surrendered to Ferdinand.
Everyone had something to say about this grand event. As seen, al-Maqqari, the normally and refreshingly objective Arab historian, captured Muslim sentiment by bemoaning how “that seat of the western caliphate, repository of the theological sciences, and abode of Islam, passed into the hands of the accursed Christians—may Allah destroy them all!”
For the indigenous Christians of Spain, however, the conquest—as with all conquests of the Reconquista—was the mere righting of a wrong. As the Latin Chronicle relays, the “famous city of Córdoba, endowed with certain splendor and rich soil, which had been held captive for such a long time, that is, from the time of Rodrigo, the king of the Goths [who was killed in 711 at the battle of Guadalete, during the initial Islamic invasion of Spain], was restored to the Christian faith by the labor and valor of our King Lord Fernando.”
Ferdinand granted lenient terms: those Muslims who wanted to leave with all their movable possessions were provided safe passage; those who wished to remain and practice their religion could do so. Either way, Ferdinand proceeded to repopulate it with “new inhabitants, followers of Christ.”
Before entering and claiming kingship of his hitherto greatest (re)conquest, Ferdinand ordered that the standard of the Cross be carried before his own standard and placed on the highest minaret of the largest mosque—an event that “caused ineffable confusion and lamentation among the Saracens and, on the other hand, ineffable joy among the Christians.”
Next, the great mosque of Córdoba, which Abd al-Rahman I, a highly celebrated caliph among Western academics, built in the eighth century— after demolishing and cannibalizing the materials of Saint Vincent’s, an important sixth century Visigothic church—was “cleansed of all filthiness of Muhammad,” the archbishop of Toledo wrote, and sprinkled with holy water and salt, so that “what had once been the devil’s lair was made a church of Jesus Christ, named in honor of his glorious Mother.”
Finally, Ferdinand found the bells of Saint James Matamoros, “the Moor Slayer,” which had been seized 250 years earlier by Muslim jihadists and sent to Córdoba on the backs of Christian captives to adorn its great mosque as trophies of war. Righting this ancient wrong, the king, who was well acquainted with the details of Muslim-Christian history, had them returned to the shrine of Santiago—carried atop the backs of captive Muslim fighters no less (pictured above).
**Raymond Ibrahim is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum. This article was excerpted from the author’s book, Defenders of the West: The Christian Heroes Who Stood Against Islam (all quoted material is sourced therein).

The Obama and Biden Administrations: Paving the Way for a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/June 28/2024
America's "diplomatic efforts," instead of putting a stop to Iran's nuclear program, have only resulted in a series of concessions that have empowered the Iranian regime. The lack of stringent enforcement and verification measures, and especially lifting secondary sanctions -- by which any country that does business with Iran is prohibited from doing business with America -- have allowed Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities "under the radar."
Iran's continued development of ballistic missile technology and its persistent test firings of missiles, both in clear violation of UN resolutions, were largely overlooked. In addition, the growing bellicosity of Iran's huge militia, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as the nuclear program itself, were apparently never addressed with the seriousness they warranted -- thereby allowing Iran to expand its military capabilities and regional aggression unchecked.
The Iranian regime strategically allocated these funds to support and expand its own proxy presence throughout the region, including, among other spots, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso and the Gaza Strip.
The Trump administration implemented a "maximum pressure" policy aimed at curtailing Iran's economic capabilities by particularly focusing on reducing the country's oil exports, and, most importantly, establishing "secondary sanctions" that banned any country doing business with Iran from doing business with the US. The Biden administration's passive approach of trying to use what might look like "protection money" to try to bribe Iran into compliance has simply backfired. Iran took the billions and, unsurprisingly, appears to have fungibly used them to finance several wars in the region -- Hamas and Hezbollah's war against Israel, the Houthis' war against Israel and the US, and Iran's own April 13 missile- and drone-attack against Israel -- as well as Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The Biden administration, sadly, seems to have been the enabling factor in Iran's continued regional assertiveness and nuclear advancement. The administration's series of policies favorable to Iran significantly strengthened the regime to the point where Iran and its proxies are now actively engaged in a comprehensive war against Israel, the Sunni Arab Gulf States and, since October, more than 150 attacks on US troops in the region.
As Iran is on the brink of acquiring nuclear weapons, the responsibility for this development lies squarely on the shoulders of the Obama and Biden administrations. Through a series of misinformed and misguided policies, they have paved the way for Iran to realize its nuclear ambitions.
America's "diplomatic efforts," instead of putting a stop to Iran's nuclear program, have only resulted in a series of concessions that have empowered the Iranian regime. The lack of stringent enforcement and verification measures, and especially lifting secondary sanctions -- by which any country that does business with Iran is prohibited from doing business with America -- have allowed Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities "under the radar." The leniency and strategic missteps of both the Obama and Biden administrations have thus critically undermined global non-proliferation efforts, bringing the world to the current situation where Iran stands about to become a nuclear-armed state.
The concept of granting concessions to Iran, which originated with the Obama administration, culminated in what became known as the "nuclear deal." The deal marked a significant shift in international relations with Iran. On the very first day of implementing the deal, the international community saw the removal of crippling United Nations Security Council sanctions. These sanctions, which had taken decades to establish, represented a robust international effort to contain Iran's nuclear plans.
Iran's continued development of ballistic missile technology and its persistent test firings of missiles, both in clear violation of UN resolutions, were largely overlooked. In addition, the growing bellicosity of Iran's huge militia, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as the nuclear program itself, were apparently never addressed with the seriousness they warranted -- thereby allowing Iran to expand its military capabilities and regional aggression unchecked.
Meanwhile, reports have surfaced, disclosed by whistleblowers to Senators Chuck Grassley and Ron Johnson, that the Obama-Biden State Department went so far as to "actively interfere" with the efforts of the FBI to arrest certain individuals who were in the United States illegally and suspected of supporting Iran's financial endeavors aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Interference by the State Department would have involved obstructing the FBI's law enforcement actions, which were crucial in addressing the illegal activities related to Iran's ambitions for weapons development. The decision to intervene and prevent these arrests raises serious questions about the administration's priorities and commitment to national security. This revelation adds another layer of complexity to the narrative surrounding the administration's approach to Iran, suggesting an eagerness to overlook potential threats.
The newfound legitimacy that Obama granted to Iran, coupled with his lifting sanctions, generated a flood of billions of dollars for the IRGC, as well as for various other militias and terrorist groups supported by the regime. The windfall enabled Tehran to significantly bolster its military and paramilitary operations, and extend its influence across the Middle East. The Iranian regime strategically allocated these funds to support and expand its own proxy presence throughout the region, including, among other spots, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso and the Gaza Strip.
In Syria, Iran's backing has been pivotal in bolstering the Assad regime by providing military and logistical support, which helped turn the civil war in Assad's favor. Similarly, in Yemen, Iran's financial and military aid to the Houthi rebels fueled an ongoing conflict that has had devastating humanitarian consequences and has further destabilized the region. In Lebanon, Iran's support for Hezbollah strengthened the group's military capabilities and political clout and made Lebanon into a solid Iranian proxy. Iran's expansion campaign, underpinned by the substantial revenue boost from sanctions lifted by the Biden administration, proved to be immensely successful, significantly intensifying Iran's grip across the Middle East.
When the Trump administration came to office, the fortunes of Iran shifted dramatically. The Trump administration implemented a "maximum pressure" policy aimed at curtailing Iran's economic capabilities by particularly focusing on reducing the country's oil exports, and, most importantly, establishing "secondary sanctions" that banned any country doing business with Iran from doing business with the US. This highly effective policy significantly slashed Iran's oil revenues, a major source of funding for the regime. The Trump administration's re-imposition and expansion of sanctions exerted immense economic pressure on the Iranian government and forced Iranian leaders to make difficult financial decisions, such as cutting back on funding to their regional allies, as well as to Iran's militias and terror groups. As the Islamic regime's proxies and aligned groups found themselves with fewer resources to sustain their activities, the reduction in financial support effectively hobbled Iran's operational capabilities. The "maximum pressure" campaign, therefore, not only weakened Iran's domestic economy but also curtailed its ability to project power and influence through its network of regional proxies.
When President Joe Biden assumed office, Iran experienced a renewed sense of optimism and relief. The Biden administration swiftly took steps that were seen as favorable to Tehran. One of the new administration's first actions was to remove Yemen's Houthi rebels from the U.S. List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations, a move that was perceived as a significant concession. The Houthis reciprocated the goodwill gesture by launching missiles and attack drones on its neighbors in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Biden administration also tried to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the "Iran nuclear deal," which had guaranteed Iran nuclear weapons in just a few years, and was therefore abandoned by the Trump administration. As these financial and diplomatic overtures took shape, Iran's oil exports began to climb, reaching new heights estimated at $100 billion. This resurgence in oil revenue once again empowered Iran to finance its hegemonic regional ambitions and support its network of militias, proxies and allied groups.
Worse, reports indicate that the Biden administration has not only overlooked Iran's advances in its nuclear program, but that it is also actively discouraging the European Union from rebuking Iran for its defiance and progress in nuclear development. The Biden administration's passive approach of trying to use what might look like "protection money" to try to bribe Iran into compliance has simply backfired. Iran took the billions and, unsurprisingly, appears to have fungibly used them to finance several wars in the region -- Hamas and Hezbollah's war against Israel, the Houthis' war against Israel and the US, and Iran's own April 13 missile- and drone-attack against Israel -- as well as Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The Biden administration, sadly, seems to have been the enabling factor in Iran's continued regional assertiveness and nuclear advancement. The administration's series of policies favorable to Iran significantly strengthened the regime to the point where Iran and its proxies are now actively engaged in a comprehensive war against Israel, the Sunni Arab Gulf States and, since October, more than 150 attacks on US troops in the region.
Drawing from historical precedents, it is easy to understand the efficacy of certain measures: imposing stringent sanctions, and especially secondary sanctions, targeting Iran's oil sales to curtail revenue flows to the regime, and considering the deployment of military options to address Iran's nuclear program. These strategic actions are now more crucial than ever in ensuring regional stability, curbing Iran's ambitions and safeguarding global security interests.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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A golden opportunity for lasting peace in the South Caucasus
Luke Coffey/Arab News/June 29, 2024
For more than three decades, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a state of war. Sometimes this has been in the form of a frozen conflict with little fighting. At other times the hostilities have been intense, costly, and bloody. Hopefully, the relationship between these two neighbors in the South Caucasus is finally on the verge of changing for the better.During the chaotic collapse of the Soviet Union, ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region attempted to secede using extraconstitutional methods. Soon after, Armenian military forces entered Azerbaijan, backing the ethnic Armenian militias, and a bloody war ensued. By 1994, a shaky ceasefire had been agreed. This remained in place, for the most part, until the second Nagorno Karabakh war in September 2020. At this time, Azerbaijan launched a major military operation to take back the territory lost to Armenia in the early 1990s. By November, a Russia-led diplomatic effort brought an end to the fighting. Azerbaijan had taken back most, but not all, of the territory it had lost to Armenia, which was decisively defeated on the battlefield. By the end of 2020 more than 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the remaining parts of Karabakh that remained under the control of the de facto Armenian authorities. In September last year, fighting once again broke out, as a result of which Azerbaijan took back the remainder of Karabakh. Fearing a genocide, which in the end did not happen, tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians fled across the border to Armenia. Interestingly, the Russian peacekeepers sat idly by and did nothing during the brief period of fighting.
Fast forward almost a year and peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is closer than it has ever been. Last month the two sides opened negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, to reach a lasting resolution to their decades-old conflict. The talks were notable because, for once, there was no Russian, American, or European involvement. So far those talks have yielded positive results. For example, Armenia returned to Azerbaijan four villages along the border that had remained uninhabited but controlled by Yerevan since the fighting in the 1990s. Even though many Armenians were unhappy with the move, it was an important gesture of peace by Yerevan. Since the meeting in Almaty there has also been a more positive and optimistic tone in the rhetoric used by both sides when discussing the prospects for peace. But there are still some major issues that need to be resolved.
The first is the final delineation of the border between the two countries. The return of the four Azerbaijani villages last month was a step in the right direction but led to the delineation of only 13 km of the border. While large sections will be easy to delineate, hundreds of kilometers remain disputed.
The border delineation process is also affected by the status of four remaining enclaves: the Armenian enclave of Artsvashen inside Azerbaijan, and the Azerbaijani enclaves of Barkhudarly, Yukhari Askipara, and Karki inside Armenia. A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could have positive effects beyond the South Caucasus.
These are all small parcels of land that were once inhabited by their respective ethnic groups but are now uninhabited and under the de facto control of the other side. How this situation will be resolved remains to be seen but the enclaves will likely feature prominently in future talks. The second issue that needs to be addressed is the Zangazur Corridor. As part of the November 2020 ceasefire agreement, Armenia pledged to “guarantee the security of transport connections” between Azerbaijan and its autonomous Nakhchivan region, an exclave nestled between Iran, Armenia and Turkiye.
Three and a half years later, a transport corridor connecting these two parts of Azerbaijan, via Armenia’s Syunik province, is no closer to reality. This is a very serious matter for Azerbaijan. Such a transport corridor would allow Baku to avoid using Iranian territory and airspace to reach Nakhchivan, which is something it desperately desires due to a complicated relationship with Tehran. Finally, there is the issue of perceived territorial claims in neighboring countries as referenced in Armenia’s Constitution. The preamble of the current version of the document references the “pan-national aspirations” of ethnic Armenians. It also specifically cites Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence from the Soviet Union that called for the unification of Armenia and ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region. Understandably, Azerbaijan has never liked this wording and wants it changed. A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkiye that would likely follow, could have positive effects beyond the South Caucasus.
For example, in recent years there has been an increase in relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Central Asia. Peace in the South Caucasus, and new transit routes such as the Zangazur Corridor, could improve trade connections between the Gulf and Central Asia. This is especially true if Turkiye’s proposed Iraq Development Road, also known as the Dry Canal corridor, linking Iraq’s southern Gulf coast to Turkiye, can be completed. If the proposed Gulf Railway, connecting the six GCC states, ever becomes a reality the possibilities are even greater. In theory, it would be possible to transport goods by rail from the Gulf to markets in Central Asia, via the Dry Canal corridor and the South Caucasus. The best thing that could happen to the South Caucasus would be a normalization of relations between Armenia and its neighbors. It is likely that billions of dollars of foreign investment have been denied to the region as a result of the ongoing conflict. A peace deal could change this. Furthermore, the South Caucasus is becoming increasingly important for transit on the Eurasian landmass. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and its neighbors would only enhance this.
There is a golden window of opportunity to bring some much-needed stability to the South Caucasus. Let us hope that 2024 is a year of peace in the region, the benefits of which would be felt far beyond.
**Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

Debate refuels concerns over Biden’s health
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/June 29, 2024
The presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has left an indelible mark on the political landscape, stirring a mix of disappointment, shock, and concern. It was disheartening to witness the leader of the US struggling to articulate his thoughts clearly.
The debate’s agenda was broad, encompassing critical issues such as abortion rights, immigration policies, and international relations with Ukraine and the Middle East.
From the outset, Biden’s performance was uneven. At 81, his halting speech and occasional raspy voice, attributed by his campaign to a cold, did little to inspire confidence and refueled existing concerns about his age and his ability to serve another term. Trump himself is 78, and the debate brought to the forefront the age and health of both candidates. Never before have two contenders for the White House been so old, which did not go unnoticed by the public.
Biden’s struggle to deliver his points coherently contrasted sharply with Trump’s more aggressive and clear-cut approach, which was a focal point for viewers and pundits alike. Vice President Kamala Harris tried to mitigate the fallout by defending Biden’s performance. She acknowledged that her boss had a slow start but emphasized his strong finish, arguing that he demonstrated a clear commitment to substantive issues over stylistic concerns. Harris pointed to the president’s broader record in office as evidence of his capability and dedication to the American people.
However, the public’s reaction was swift and telling. A snap poll suggested that 67 percent of viewers believed Trump outperformed Biden, a significant shift from pre-debate expectations when only 55 percent believed Trump would do better, and 57 percent expressed a lack of confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the country compared with 44 percent for Trump. These numbers reflect a stark reality: the debate shifted the focus from policy issues to concerns about Biden’s personal fitness for office.
The implications for the Democratic Party are profound. The debate has exacerbated internal tensions and brought to the surface the challenges of its candidate. There is no straightforward mechanism within the Democratic National Committee’s rules to replace an incumbent president on the ticket. Any move to replace Biden would require opening the nominating process at the convention, a scenario fraught with political risks and complexities.
Trump himself is 78, and the debate brought to the forefront the age and health of both candidates.
Prominent Democrats are already feeling the pressure. Reports have emerged of top Democrats urging Biden to reconsider his re-election bid; and many House Democrats are privately expressing the need for a new nominee. This internal discord is a testament to the deepening concerns about his ability to secure a second term. As the most obvious successor, Kamala Harris faces her own challenges. Her current approval rating of 38 percent raises questions about her viability as a candidate against Trump. This adds another layer of complexity to the Democrat dilemma. The party must navigate these turbulent waters carefully to avoid further detachment from its base and to present a unified front in the election.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly dismissed speculation about replacing his leader, emphasizing party unity and support for the president. Other names have been circulating, such as those of Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The urgent need for a decisive strategy is palpable behind the scenes. The Democrats must act swiftly and judiciously to address these growing concerns and prepare for all possible scenarios.
The debate’s impact extends beyond the Democratic Party. It has also galvanized Republican supporters and reinforced their confidence in Trump. Republicans seized on Biden's faltering performance as a rallying point, further complicating the Democratic Party's path forward.
Furthermore, it exposed a broader issue within American politics: the increasing emphasis on the age and health of candidates. This is not confined to Biden and Trump, but reflects a growing trend in which voters scrutinize their leaders’ physical and mental fitness. This shift in focus from policy to personal capability is a significant departure from traditional political evaluations and indicates a new era in voter expectations.
Additionally, the role of the media in shaping public perception cannot be overlooked. Liberal-leaning media outlets have been critical of Biden’s performance, which has contributed to the growing unease within the Democrats. The media’s portrayal of the debate and its aftermath plays a crucial role in influencing public opinion and, ultimately, voter behavior. In light of these developments, the Democrats face a daunting task. Replacing Biden would involve complex logistical and political challenges. Opening the nominating process at the convention would be unprecedented and could lead to a fractious and divisive outcome. The party must carefully weigh the risks and benefits to avoid destabilizing its electoral prospects.
Moving forward, the party’s strategy must be clear and compelling to reassure both its base and the broader electorate. The election is fast approaching, and the Democrats’ ability to present a robust and unified front will be crucial in determining the outcome.
Convincing Biden to step aside would be daunting, but ensuring the party’s strength and unity heading into the election is necessary. By preparing thoroughly for a smooth transition and rallying behind a new candidate, the Democrats can bolster their already slim chance of maintaining control of the White House. The time for strategic action is now, and the stakes could not be higher.
*Dalia Al-Aqidi is executive director at the American Center for Counter Extremism.

How a sarcophagus fragment helped solve an ancient Egyptian mystery
JONATHAN GORNALL/Arab News/June 29, 2024
LONDON: During excavations carried out at the ancient site of Abydos in Egypt in 2009, archaeologists made an unexpected discovery — the remains of a lost Coptic monastery, believed to have been founded in the fifth century by the leader of the Coptic church, Apa Moses. That was fascinating enough, but even bigger surprises would emerge. Deep within the excavated ruins of the monastery, archaeologists from the Egyptian Ministry of State for Antiquities made a discovery that shone a light on the tensions that existed between the early Coptic church and the remnants of Egypt’s “pagan” past. Pressed into service as a humble doorstep within the monastery was a piece of red granite, 1.7 meters long and half as wide.
A partial inscription revealed it was part of the sarcophagus of Menkheperre, the high priest of Amun-Ra, the ancient Egyptian god of the sun and the air, who ruled the south of Egypt between 1045 and 992 B.C. The find seemed to solve one mystery ­— where Menkheperre had been buried. Previously it was thought that he must have been entombed near his power base at Thebes, in a grave yet to be discovered. Now, it seemed, he had been laid to rest in Abydos. The existence of a fragment of his sarcophagus, set within the floor of the monastery, as the authors of a paper published in 2016 surmised, owed something to Apa Moses’ “persecution of local pagan temples,” and was “perhaps the result of the fervor with which his followers dismantled pagan structures and tombs throughout Abydos.”And that is where the story might have ended, but for Frederic Payraudeau, an Egyptologist at Sorbonne University in Paris.
Frederic Payraudeau, an Egyptologist at Sorbonne University in Paris. (Supplied)
Ayman Damrani and Kevin Cahail, the Egyptian and American archaeologists who had discovered the fragment, recognized from the outset that the sarcophagus had another occupant before Menkheperre. They saw that earlier inscriptions had been overwritten and suggested the original owner might have been an unknown royal prince.
The fragment, made of hard red granite, represented “a much greater allocation of time and resources involved in its construction,” they wrote, than would have been expended on the sarcophagus of even a high official. This suggested the original owner “had access to royal-level workshops and materials,” and might, they concluded, have been a prince by the name of Meryamunre or Meryamun. “When I read this article, I was very interested because I am a specialist of this period,” said Payraudeau, “and I was not really convinced by the reading of the inscriptions.”
He added: “I already suspected that this fragment was from the sarcophagus of a king, partly because of the quality of the object, which is very well carved, but also because of the decoration.” This consisted of scenes from the Book of Gates, an ancient Egyptian funerary text reserved almost exclusively for kings. “It is known in the Valley of the Kings on the walls of the tombs, and on the sarcophagi of the kings, and it was used only by one person, who was not a king, in a later period. “But this is an exception, and it would have been very strange for a prince to have used this text — and especially a prince that we hadn’t heard of.”The photographs published with the paper were of too low quality to confirm his suspicions, so he asked the author to send him high-resolution copies. “And when I saw the enlarged photographs of the objects, I could clearly see the cartouche of a king.”A cartouche is an oval frame, underscored at one end and containing a name written in hieroglyphics, that was used to indicate royalty. This one read “User-Maat-Ra Setep-en-Ra.” Translated roughly as “The justice of Ra is powerful, Chosen of Ra,” it was the throne name of one of the most famous rulers of ancient Egypt — Ramses II. Ramses II, who ruled from 1279 to 1213 B.C., is regarded as one of the most powerful warrior-pharaohs of ancient Egypt, famed for having fought many battles and created many temples, monuments and cities, and known to generations of subsequent rulers and their subjects as the “great ancestor.”
His was the longest reign in Egyptian history, and he is depicted in more than 300 often colossal statues found across the ancient kingdom.
On his death, after a reign that lasted 67 years, he was buried in a tomb in the Valley of the Kings. Because many of the tombs were later looted, one of his successors, Ramses IX, who ruled from 1129 to 1111 B.C., had many of the remains moved for safekeeping to a secret tomb in Deir El-Bahari, a necropolis on the Nile opposite the city of Luxor.
There they lay undisturbed for almost 3,000 years until their chance discovery by a goat-herder in about 1860. It was not until 1881 that Egyptologists got wind of the extraordinary find, and there among the more than 50 mummies of pharaohs, each labeled with the details of who they were and where they had been originally buried, was Ramses II. He was in a beautifully carved cedar-wood coffin. Originally, this would ordinarily have been placed inside a golden coffin — lost to antiquity — which in turn would have been housed within an alabaster sarcophagus, which itself was then placed inside a stone sarcophagus. Small fragments of the alabaster sarcophagus, which had presumably been shattered by looters, were found in his original tomb in the Valley of the Kings. Of the granite sarcophagus, however, there was no sign — until now.
The looting of graves and the reusing of sarcophagi was a result of social and economic upheaval in ancient Egypt. “The sarcophagus was intended to be used by the owner for eternity,” said Payraudeau. But with the death of Ramses XI in 1077 B.C., at the end of a long period of prosperity, there was a civil war and then a long period of unrest, he said. “This was the Third Intermediate Period, which saw much looting of the necropolizes because the Egyptians knew that there was gold, silver and other valuable materials, such as wood, in the tombs.”In addition to ordinary grave robbers, even the authorities took part in the looting, recycling sarcophagi for their own use. That is how Menkheperre came to be buried in a sarcophagus previously used by Ramses II.
Payraudeau is not convinced that the use of a fragment of the sarcophagus in the building of the fifth-century Coptic monastery was necessarily an act of disrespect.
“When they built this monastery, they didn’t know that they were reusing the sarcophagus of Ramses, because by this time no one had been able to read hieroglyphs for about 500 years.”
It would be 1799 before the discovery of the Rosetta Stone, which, with a royal decree written in three languages, including ancient Greek, provided the key to deciphering Egyptian hieroglyphic script. The one remaining mystery now, said Payraudeau, was where in Abydos Menkheperre was originally buried. “Somewhere there must be the undiscovered remains of the tomb of the high priest,” he said. “Maybe it was completely destroyed. But I can’t let go of the idea that perhaps they reused the parts of the sarcophagus which were suitable to use as pavements and so on, and that the lid, which would have been far harder to reuse, might still be lying intact somewhere in Abydos.”
In 1817, about 3,000 years after the death of Ramses II, archaeological discoveries in Egypt inspired the English poet Percy Bysshe Shelley to write a sonnet reflecting on how the once seemingly eternal power of the great king the ancient Greeks knew as Ozymandias had turned to dust. Reflecting on an inscription on the pedestal of a shattered, fallen statue, part of the poem reads: “My name is Ozymandias, king of kings. Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair! Nothing beside remains, round the decay, of that colossal wreck. Boundless and bare, the lone and level sands stretch far away.”
In fact, not only has Ramses II’s fame grown in the 3,236 years since he was entombed in the Valley of the Kings, he has also become the most traveled of the ancient pharaohs.
In 1976, after it was noticed that his mummified remains were starting to decay, Ramses was sent to the Musee de l’Homme in Paris for restoration, along with a whimsical “passport” that gave his occupation as “King (deceased).”Since then, he has been seen by hundreds of thousands of visitors to numerous exhibitions around the world, including a return visit to Paris last year. If the lid of his sarcophagus were discovered, it could be reunited with the mummy and its coffin, and the Ozymandias show would doubtless grow ever more popular, continuing to confound Shelley’s poetic prediction that the Great Ancestor would be forgotten, swallowed up by the sands of time.