Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 26-27/2024
Defense chief says Israel doesn’t want war but warns Hezbollah; cites progress on resolving weapons rift with US
Lebanon asks UN to renew UNIFIL mandate as pressure grows on Israel to end hostilities
From Beirut, Vatican Expresses Concern over Lebanon's Presidential Vacuum
Shiite Forces Boycott Meeting with Vatican Secretary on Lebanon’s Presidential Crisis
US defence secretary warns Israel-Hezbollah fighting could escalate into regional war
Erdogan: Türkiye Stands with Lebanon Amid Tensions with Israel
Iran Mulls Iraqi Armed Factions’ Plans to Support Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel
Could Hezbollah defeat Israel?/Elliott Goat, The Week UK/The Week/June 26/2024
Only Iran can benefit from the coming war between Israel and Hezbollah
Michael Ben-Gad, Professor of Economics, City, University of London/The conversation/June 26, 2024
Open Letter To Sheikh Qabalan/Elie Aoun/June 26/2024
Amid Looming War, Lebanon Lacks Optimism over Int’l, US Warnings/Eyad Abu Shakra/Aharq Al-Awsat/June 27/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 26-27/2024
US still keeping pause on one munitions shipment for Israel
UN Aid Chief Concerned by Possible Expansion of Gaza War
Israeli forces pound north and south Gaza, battle Hamas in Rafah
At least 2,000 medical evacuations from Gaza prevented by Rafah crossing closure, says WHO
Independent UN experts accuse Sudan’s warring parties of using starvation as weapon
Ukraine's Zelenskyy visits front-line troops under pressure from Russia's onslaught in eastern areas
Pakistan security forces have arrested 2 key Pakistani Taliban commanders, an official says ABDUL SATTAR
First candidate drops out of Iran presidential election, due to take place Friday amid voter apathy
Iran election hopefuls struggle to offer fix for economic woes
Houthis in Yemen Say They Targeted Ship in Haifa Port with ‘Islamic Resistance’ in Iraq
French Court Upholds Warrant for Syria’s Assad over Chemical Weapons

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on June 26-27/2024
Diplomacy, sanctions and soft power have failed to deter Iran’s anti-West agenda/could a new Iranian president change that?/Nakissa Jahanbani, Penn State and Daniel P. Colletti/ United States Military Academy West Point/June 26, 2024
The Road to Acquiescence/Raymond Ibrahim/Sword and Scimitar/June 26/2024
On Unity, Division, Federalism, and Beyond/Hazem Saghieh/Aharq Al-Awsat/June 27/2024
Far-right surge in EU elections signals major shift/Seyid Ould Abah/Arab News/June 26, 2024
 

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 26-27/2024
Defense chief says Israel doesn’t want war but warns Hezbollah; cites progress on resolving weapons rift with US
AFP/June 27, 2024
WASHINGTON: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on a visit to Washington that his country does not want war in Lebanon but was ready to inflict “massive damage” on Hezbollah if diplomacy fails. “We do not want war, but we are preparing for every scenario,” Gallant told reporters during the visit that ended Wednesday.“Hezbollah understands very well that we can inflict massive damage in Lebanon if a war is launched,” he said. Tensions have been rising, with growing skirmishes along the border between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia, since the October 7 attack by Hamas that prompted a relentless Israeli retaliatory campaign in Gaza. Gallant said that Israel has killed more than 400 Hezbollah “terrorists” in recent months. The Israeli defense minister was in Washington for three days meeting with officials in a bid to quietly resolve a rift over US weapons shipments, drawing an implicit contrast to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s more confrontational approach. “During the meetings we made significant progress, obstacles were removed and bottlenecks were addressed,” Gallant said after meeting with Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser. Gallant said the progress was on “a variety of issues” including “the topic of force build-up and munition supply that we must bring to the state of Israel.” “I would like to thank the US administration and the American public for their enduring support for the state of Israel,” he said. Netanyahu in recent days has publicly accused the Biden administration of slowing down weapons deliveries to Israel, which has been at war in Gaza since an October 7 attack by Hamas. US officials have denied the accusations and showed annoyance, months before an election in which Biden’s support for Israel has become a liability with a left flank of his Democratic Party outraged by the heavy death toll among Palestinian civilians. The US in early May froze a shipment that included 2,000-pound bombs and Biden warned of a further halt as he pressed Israel not to carry out a wide-scale military assault of Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than one million displaced Palestinians had sought shelter. A senior US administration official said the United States has sent more than $6.5 billion in weapons to Israel since October 7, with nearly $3 billion alone in May. “This is a massive, massive undertaking and nothing is paused other than one shipment,” the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
The official blamed the rift on misunderstandings of the “complex” US bureaucratic process. He said Gallant’s team and US experts went through “every single case.”
“There was real progress and a mutual understanding of where things stand, of prioritization of certain cases over others, so that we can make sure that we are moving things in ways that meet the needs of the Israelis,” he said. Biden — whose approach to Israel has drawn criticism both from progressives and the right — held off on curbing weapon deliveries after Israel carried out what US officials described as comparatively targeted operations in Rafah. Netanyahu and Gallant have said the most intense phase of the fighting is over — with Israel set to shift forces toward the border with Lebanon after rising skirmishes with the Iranian-backed militant movement Hezbollah. The US official said Washington remained in “fairly intensive conversations” with Israel, Lebanon and other actors and believed that no side sought a “major escalation.”Gallant, who met twice in Washington with Amos Hochstein, the US pointman between Israel and Lebanon, reassured that his country was trying to avoid an all-out war with the Iran-backed Hezbolla militia of Lebanon. “We do not want war, but we are preparing for every scenario,” Gallant told reporters. US officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken have voiced hope that a ceasefire in Gaza could lead to a reduction in tension over Lebanon as well. Biden on May 31 laid out a plan for a temporary ceasefire and release of hostages, but Hamas came back with further demands. Despite criticism of the proposal from some of Netanyahu’s far-right allies, Gallant said, “We are all committed to and firmly backing the president’s deal.” “Hamas must accept it or bear the consequences,” he said. The Gaza war began with Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. The militants also seized about 250 hostages, 116 of whom remain in Gaza, although the army says 42 are dead. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 37,718 people, also mostly civilians, according to data from Hamas-run Gaza’s health ministry.

Lebanon asks UN to renew UNIFIL mandate as pressure grows on Israel to end hostilities
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/June 26, 2024
BEIRUT: The Lebanese Foreign Ministry has sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres asking for the mandate of UNIFIL peacekeepers to be renewed for another year. The request comes after eight months of hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army. Candice Ardell from the UNIFIL media office said: “Our sites and vehicles have been fired upon from both sides. Several peacekeepers have sustained non-critical injuries and measures are being taken by UNIFIL leadership to ensure the safety of the peacekeepers.” Meanwhile, the southern front remains exposed to military operations, including an incident in which an Israeli drone targeted a power line serving Taybeh, just minutes after the power company had completed its maintenance, causing an electricity outage at the pumping station. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reaffirmed his country’s support for Lebanon and called on “countries in the region to support Lebanon amid tensions with Israel, which has burned and destroyed Gaza and now seems to have its sights set on Lebanon, while we notice it receiving covert support from the West.”“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to expand the war in the region would lead to a major disaster,” he said. “The Islamic world and Middle Eastern countries must first confront these bloody plans. Netanyahu is mentally ill and the silence of Western countries toward him will lead to a widespread war in the entire region.”Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on “the international community to alert Israel to the devastating effects of extending the conflict to Lebanon.”
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said: “Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Israel prefers a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah and that a diplomatic solution is still possible.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned of “the risks of another war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah that could easily escalate into a regional war.”He emphasized “the importance of a diplomatic solution.”German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock held talks in Beirut with Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib as part of diplomatic efforts to cool tensions on the southern front, following visits to Tel Aviv and the West Bank. “The situation on the Blue Line is delicate and there are risks. Cooperation between all parties is necessary to reduce escalation and achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that leads to a ceasefire in southern Lebanon,” she said. Baerbock also expressed Berlin’s “concern about the current tension in the region” and warned of “the danger of reaching a deadlock, especially if the parties refuse to cease fire.” Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin has been in Beirut for two days to support Lebanon and call for the acceleration of the presidential election. He also met Mikati and parliament speaker Nabih Berri. “Every war leaves the world worse off than it was and is a surrender to the forces of evil,” he said.He also expressed Pope Francis’ concern regarding the failure to elect a new president “who represents the unity of Lebanon.” The Middle East was “going through a tough period,” he said. “The Pope, who has strong relationships with Palestinians and Israelis, calls for peace, ending the conflict, releasing hostages in Gaza and delivering aid to the Palestinian territories without obstacles.” Hossam Zaki, assistant secretary-general of the Arab League, on Wednesday held talks in Beirut with Berri and met the leaders of the Lebanese Phalange Party, Sami Gemayel, and Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil. The talks centered on the “tense regional situation and the war waged by Hezbollah in the south, as well as the issue of the presidency.”

From Beirut, Vatican Expresses Concern over Lebanon's Presidential Vacuum
Aharq Al-Awsat/June 26/2024
Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin on Wednesday urged warring parties in the Middle East to accept "peace proposals", saying the region including Lebanon "doesn't need war". "The Middle East is going through a critical moment," Parolin told a press conference in Beirut during a days-long visit to Lebanon. The Holy See "asks for peace proposals to be welcomed, so that fighting stops on each side, so hostages in Gaza are released, so that the necessary aid arrives unhindered to the Palestinian population", he said. "Lebanon, the Middle East, the whole world certainly doesn't need war," the cardinal added. The bloodiest ever Gaza war started with Hamas's October 7 attack on southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. The gunmen also seized about 250 hostages, 116 of whom remain in Gaza although the army says 42 are dead. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 37,718 people, also mostly civilians, the health ministry in the Hamas-run Palestinian territory says. US President Joe Biden on May 31 laid out a plan for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, but the conflict has continued to rage, with fears growing of a wider regional war drawing in Lebanese Hamas ally Hezbollah. Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Wednesday urged against linking "Lebanon's stability and interests to extremely complicated conflicts and never-ending wars". Israel and Hezbollah have traded near-daily cross-border fire since Hamas's October 7 attack. The violence has killed more than 480 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 94 civilians, according to an AFP tally, with 15 soldiers and 11 civilians dead in Israel, according to authorities. During his visit, Parolin has met political and religious leaders, and said on Wednesday the Vatican was "seriously concerned" at Lebanon's presidential vacuum. Electing a head of state is "an urgent and absolute necessity", he said, expressing the hope "that the political parties will be able find a solution without delay". Lebanon, long divided on sectarian lines, has been without a president since the end of October 2022. Neither of parliament's two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its opponents -- have the majority required to elect one, and successive votes have ended in deadlock.

Shiite Forces Boycott Meeting with Vatican Secretary on Lebanon’s Presidential Crisis
Beirut: Nazeer Rida/Aharq Al-Awsat/June 26/2024
Representatives of Lebanon's Supreme Islamic Shiite Council and Shiite deputies boycotted a meeting of the heads of sects and parliamentary blocs with Vatican Secretary Cardinal Pietro Parolin at the seat of the Maronite Patriarchate in Bkirki on Tuesday. The meeting, which focused on the presidential crisis, was held at Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai's invitation. Addressing the gatherers, Parolin underlined the need to preserve the “Lebanese model” in the turbulent region. He called on the different parties to cooperate to resolve the crisis and reach solutions that “bring hope to Lebanon and its people.”“I convey to you the greetings of His Holiness Pope Francis, who is carefully following the developments in Lebanon...” he stated, adding: “Today, Lebanon must remain a model of coexistence and unity in light of the ongoing crises and wars.”He said he was in Lebanon to help end the crisis, namely the failure to elect a president of the republic. The presidency has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022. For his part, al-Rai emphasized that the meeting was a “gathering of the Lebanese family” and an opportunity for dialogue and mutual understanding, especially during these challenging times. Shiite representatives boycotted the meeting despite an invitation being sent to the Supreme Shiite Islamic Council. An informed source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the decision was a response to remarks made by al-Rai during the Sunday mass sermon, in which he said that the resistance against Israel in the South has turned the area into an arena for terrorist acts that destabilize the security and stability of the region. According to the same source, the Shiite community has no problem with the Vatican, as Parolin is scheduled to meet with Speaker Nabih Berri - a Shiite - on Wednesday.
Jaafari Mufti Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan sent a letter to the Vatican secretary, criticizing al-Rai’s position without naming him and saying: “Some spiritual leaders in my country view what the group of its resisters are doing as abhorrent terrorism that must be deterred and prevented.” “We do not accept that the Church uses positions that serve Zionist terrorism and global crime,” he added. Regarding the election of a president, Qabalan stressed: “We want a Christian president for the Muslims, who is as eager as the Muslim resistance [Hezbollah] and its sacrifices for the sake of the Christian churches. This can only be achieved through consensus that safeguards the homeland of Muslims and Christians.” Christian parties quickly slammed Qabalan’s remarks. In a statement, the Kataeb Party said the letter “contained clear incitement against the role of Bkirki and hateful sectarianism that we have never heard before even at the peak of the Lebanese [civil] war.”

US defence secretary warns Israel-Hezbollah fighting could escalate into regional war
FRANCE 24/June 26/2024
Speaking to his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon on Tuesday, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sounded the alarm on the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Urging Israel not to open a second front on its border with Lebanon, he said the fighting could "easily become a regional war, with terrible consequences for the Middle East". Read our blog to see how the day's events unfolded. This blog is no longer being updated. For more coverage of the Israel-Hamas war, please click here.
Summary:
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged Israel not to open a second front against Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, saying the ongoing fighting could "easily become a regional war" as he met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon on Tuesday. Israel’s Supreme Court Tuesday ruled that the military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox men for military service, a ruling that could split Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition.

Erdogan: Türkiye Stands with Lebanon Amid Tensions with Israel
Aharq Al-Awsat/June 26/2024
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that Türkiye stood in solidarity with Lebanon in light of growing tensions with Israel, and called on regional countries to also support Beirut. Speaking in parliament, Erdogan said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planned to spread the Gaza war to the region and that this would lead to a "catastrophe", adding the Western support for Israel was "pitiful.”Israel’s low-level conflict with Lebanon’s Hezbollah has escalated in recent weeks, raising fears of an all-out war. A senior Israeli official said Tuesday Israel and the United States will devote an unspecified number of weeks to trying to reach a new arrangement with Hezbollah before resorting to other means to bring calm to the Israel-Lebanon border. “We will now dedicate long weeks ... in an attempt to reach an arrangement” along the border, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said. Hezbollah began attacking northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas shortly after the Palestinian militants’ Oct. 7 attack triggered the war in Gaza. Israel has responded with airstrikes.

Iran Mulls Iraqi Armed Factions’ Plans to Support Hezbollah in Lebanon against Israel
London: Ali Saray/Aharq Al-Awsat/June 26/2024
Leaders of various Iraqi armed factions are studying “preliminary” plans to support the Hezbollah party in Lebanon should a war erupt between it and Israel. The plans are not final because Hezbollah and Iran have yet to approve them, four informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. They revealed that a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer met in Baghdad with leaders of the pro-Iran Coordination Framework and representatives of Tehran-aligned armed factions to discuss their proposals to support Hezbollah against Israel. On June 13, the factions told Iran they were prepared to fight alongside Hezbollah should a broader conflict erupt in the region over the Israeli war on Gaza, said Iraqi sources. The sources added that the meeting was held after intense talks between the leaders of the factions about the need to “head to the Lebanon front.” The IRGC saw that it was “necessary to listen to their plans and watch them closely.” They revealed that the IRGC “agreed to attend the meeting at the pressing demand of Hezbollah in Lebanon because it was necessary to observe the reaction of Iraqi factions, which don’t always have the most accurate assessments.”
Hezbollah ultimately rejected the Iraqi factions’ offer for their fighters to take part in any potential war. Asharq Al-Awsat elaborated on this issue in a June 20 report. Hezbollah said it had reservations over the involvement of the Iraqi factions in Lebanon due to the sensitive situation in the country and various considerations on the field. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said: “The resistance in Lebanon received offers from armed factions leaders in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and others to send tens of thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah.”“We are grateful, but we already have large numbers of our own,” he added.
Supply route
The rejection did not deter the Iraqi factions from making their plans, which include supplying Hezbollah with weapons, rockets, drones and fighters “when necessary.” Two sources who attended the Baghdad meeting said Tehran will have the final say over these plans and it has to take political considerations into account. The meeting was attended by Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali, head of the Popular Mobilization Forces Falih Al-Fayyadh, leaders of the Nujaba movement, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and other armed factions. The IRGC officer listened to various proposals, including one by an armed faction that said “all of its fighters were ready to head to southern Lebanon and act as the first line of defense of Hezbollah against Israel.”The Iranian officer deemed the proposal “too enthusiastic at the moment.” The situation in Lebanon must be taken into consideration, he added. Other faction leaders proposed setting up supply routes to Hezbollah to send rockets and drones to the South. They even suggested using Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport to transfer these weapons swiftly. Just days ago, Britain's The Telegraph claimed that Hezbollah was storing rockets at the airport, prompting outrage from Lebanon’s caretaker Minister of Public Works Ali Hamieh, who said the report “damages the image of the airport.”The proposal was dismissed by the Iranian officer, saying Hezbollah fears that Israel may strike the airport now that “all eyes are on it,” revealed the sources. Attention then shifted to Syria. A source from the Kataib Hezbollah told Asharq Al-Awsat that a supply route needs the expertise of factions active in Syria and secret warehouses that would not be targeted by Israeli strikes. One proposal suggested the redeployment of Iraqi factions in Syria in order to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. Kataib Hezbollah said weapons would be transferred by a single truck, instead of a convoy, to avoid attracting Israel’s attention. On June 22, an “unknown” strike targeted a rocket and drone shipment by a pro-Iran Iraqi faction in Syria’s Alboukamal region bordering Iraq.
Objection
At the Baghdad meeting, Asaib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais al-Khazali objected to all plans on taking the fight to Lebanon, saying: “The best thing we can offer Hezbollah is target American interests in Iraq.”The position created sharp differences between the representatives of the factions, with an argument ensuing in front of the Iranian officer, said the source. The officer then called on the factions against acting rashly and to wait for the approval from Tehran, which is currently involved in political negotiations. Soon after the meeting, Khazali appeared in a televised address on Monday to declare: “America should know that all of its interests in the region and Iraq are now targets and in danger.”Iran’s reservations over the Iraqi plans are in line with remarks by Israel's national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, who said on Tuesday that Israel will spend the coming weeks trying to resolve the conflict with Hezbollah and would prefer a diplomatic solution, reported Reuters. The four sources said the Iranians, after consulting with Hezbollah, did not approve of any of the Iraqi plans, but they were intrigued with the supply route proposal, whether a broader war erupts or not.

Could Hezbollah defeat Israel?
Elliott Goat, The Week UK/The Week/June 26/2024
"One rash move – one miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border, and frankly, beyond imagination."That was the stark assessment of UN Secretary-General António Guterres last Friday, as tensions between Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah threaten to boil over into open war for the first time in nearly two decades. Since Hamas's 7 October attacks on Israeli citizens, Western officials have been working tirelessly to try to prevent the war in Gaza from spilling over. But despite "strenuous efforts and stern warnings", the risk of an "expanding regional conflict is now rising by the hour", said Politico. If that happens "it will be nothing short of a game-changer", Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told CNBC. Compared to Hamas, Hezbollah is "a much more formidable fighting force and widely recognised as the most powerful non-state military in the world", he said. Its involvement would have huge consequences "not only for Israel, but also for the entire region".
What did the commentators say?
Founded in 1982 by a group of radical Shia clerics in the midst of the Lebanese civil war, Hezbollah, or the Party of God, has a "well-resourced" medium-sized fighting force "that can defeat most Arab armies", said Time. With backing from Iran estimated by the US to run to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, recent estimates by the Atlantic Council put Hezbollah's manpower at roughly 30,000 fighters and 20,000 reservists. Yet this number "likely does not include the thousands of non-combatant workers and volunteers across the country, including women who are not allowed to be official members of Hezbollah", said the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. The US State Department said that these numbers also fail to account for the thousands of members and non-member supporters worldwide. ABC News reported that thousands of fighters from other Iran-backed groups in the Middle East are ready to come to Lebanon to join Hezbollah in its battle with Israel "if the simmering conflict escalates into a full-blown war". Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Wednesday that militant leaders from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries have previously offered to send tens of thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah, but that the group already has more than 100,000 fighters. Since the last full-blown war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah has "significantly expanded its arsenal and capabilities", said The Guardian. This includes acquiring suicide drones that Israel has struggled to counter, as well as anti-aircraft missile capability and an array of missiles that experts now believe number between 120,000 and 200,000, making it "the world's best-armed non-state group".It has also gained vital battlefield experience. Hezbollah played a crucial role supporting the Assad regime during the brutal Syrian civil war, and has spent much of the last decade engaged in fighting in Iraq and Yemen.
What next?
After a short pause for the Islamic Eid al-Adha holiday, Hezbollah has resumed its daily rocket and drone attacks along Israel's northern border, with its fighters and commanders being targeted by Israeli strikes in response. Nasrallah has made it clear that Hezbollah is not currently seeking all-out war – and that his forces will continue their current wave of attacks for as long as the fighting in Gaza continues. He also warned that "no place" in Israel would be safe if a fully-fledged conflict breaks out. As of today, The Spectator said, "the tactical advantage is clearly with Israel". And more than a third (36%) of Israelis believe the country should launch an immediate attack, a poll from the Jewish People Policy Institute found. The reality is "neither side will fight with kid gloves – both have the capacity to inflict terrible damage on the other", said Politico. "Israel has the ability to flatten Lebanon and has warned it will do so in the event of war – what's happened to Gaza only reinforces that threat. And Hezbollah isn't the Hezbollah of 2006. It's much better armed" and "has made clear it will take the fight right into the heart of Israel." If war against Hezbollah does begin, the Gaza fighting will have been only an "overture", said journalist and Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyer in The Spectator. "And if Tehran's most prized proxy is threatened with destruction, the prospect of the direct entry of Iran and its remaining proxies into the fight will be very real."

Only Iran can benefit from the coming war between Israel and Hezbollah
Michael Ben-Gad, Professor of Economics, City, University of London/The Conversation/June 26, 2024
Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, says that the most intense phase of Israel’s assault on Gaza is ending. Units of the Israel Defense Forces are being moved to the Lebanese border where there are signs that fighting with Hezbollah is intensifying.
Since the war began after the October 7 Hamas attack, citizens living in northern Israel have been subjected to almost continuous rocket fire from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. More than 61,000 Israelis have been displaced, 28 killed and thousands of buildings destroyed or severely damaged. Thousands of acres of orchards and forest have been burned. Directly inside Israel’s border with Lebanon, citizens are regularly forced to take refuge in bomb shelters as Hezbollah gradually extends the range of its attacks – local press noted that 50 new mobile bomb shelters were being brought in to supplement more than 120 already installed in the region. Israel has responded with attacks on Hezbollah missile sites and with assassinations of Hezbollah commanders, to little avail. Though it is easy to conflate Hamas in Gaza with Hezbollah in Lebanon, these two organisations are very different. Hamas is a fundamentalist Sunni organisation, though sufficiently pragmatic to form alliances with its ideological opponents – whether that’s the Alawite-dominated regime in Syria (till the start of the civil war in 2011) and, more recently, with Shia Iran. For its part, Iran is only too happy to provide Hamas with the arms and training to pursue its war with Israel, but has no direct control over its actions. Hezbollah, by contrast, is not merely an Iranian proxy, but an extension of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is effectively Iran’s proconsul in the Levant. The movement is both a Lebanese political party and a militia that can call up as many as 100,000 trained fighters, making it more powerful than Lebanon’s official military. To understand its recent behaviour, one must understand how Iran may be changing its strategy. Iran’s most cherished goal is to chase the United States from the Middle East and then dominate its immediate surroundings, particularly the Arab lands to its east. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussain’s Sunni minority government created a power vacuum that was quickly filled by Shia militias and pro-Iranian political parties. In the long run, eliminating Israel means removing a rival power as well as America’s closest ally. There is also a theological element to Iran’s eliminationist ideology. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has repeatedly predicted that Israel, founded in 1948, would not reach its 80th anniversary. Nonetheless, until the night of April 13 to 14, when it launched over 300 drones and missiles against Israel, Iran avoided direct confrontations with the Jewish state. Instead, in a policy reminiscent of that maintained by Egypt’s president, Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s and 1960s, Iran’s goal has been to gradually weaken Israel through an endless war of attrition. Forcing the country to keep its reserve force permanently mobilised would undermine the economy and sap morale. To avoid direct retaliation, it arms irregular forces, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels, to operate from their territory.
Change of plan
The last time Hezbollah launched a serious assault in 2006, Israel invaded and only agreed to withdraw after Nasrallah agreed to abide by UN security council resolution 1701. That stipulated that Hezbollah would be disarmed and the Lebanese Army deployed to the border. None of this was actually implemented. Yet aside from occasional exchanges of fire, Israel’s northern border remained relatively quiet. Iran, having spent billions of dollars into building up Hezbollah, kept it in reserve as a deterrent against Israeli or US attacks on its nuclear facilities. The calculus in Tehran now appears to have changed. As the Biden administration looks for ways to extricate itself from the Middle East and focus on the Pacific, the likelihood of a US strike against Iran’s nuclear programme has receded. In the wake of the October 7 attacks, Israel appears weaker, its government deeply unpopular and deeply divided in a way that makes strategic planning nearly impossible. One expression of the government’s ongoing dysfunction is the determination of Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, to preserve “coalition funds” that prop up the government by supporting narrow sectoral interests at a time when the budget deficit is already 7% of GDP. In May, the Governor of the Bank of Israel, Prof Amir Yaron warned that the direct and indirect costs of the war will reach about US$67 billion (£53 billion). So far, the war in Gaza has shown the Israeli economy to be remarkably resilient to large shocks. Investors remain broadly optimistic about the country’s long-term economic outlook. But the cost of a protracted struggle in Lebanon will be far higher and place enormous strain on the economy.
Dangerous moment
Iran, meanwhile is sufficiently emboldened to have recently accelerated its processing of highly enriched uranium. Meanwhile, Nasrallah not only announced that his elite Redwan fighters are ready to invade and capture Israel’s Galilee region, but threatened to attack shipping in the Mediterranean and even strike Cyprus should the country continue to cooperate with Israel. Cyprus is an EU member where the UK maintains two military bases. Nasrallah indicated that Hezbollah could soon extend its fire to Haifa, the country’s third-largest urban area, home to one-tenth of the country’s population, with the largest concentration of heavy industry. Haifa is also the site of Israel’s main port and naval base. An attack on Haifa would prompt an immediate invasion of Lebanon and a full-scale war. Moreover, Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets trained on Israel, many of which can reach Tel Aviv and beyond. Aside from the physical damage and loss of life, a war of this scale would dwarf the substantial cost of the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The impact of war on Israel will be dire and the effects on Lebanon – already effectively a failed state – much worse. Much of Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles are buried in silos hidden in civilian areas. Lebanese villages are often located on the sides of mountain passes where Hezbollah will dig in. Given the need to get to the silos quickly, before all the missiles can be launched, a ground invasion will be necessary – but will be costly in Israeli lives, with huge collateral damage and civilian deaths. In the event of full-scale war, Iran may also launch its own ballistic missiles again and try to overwhelm Israel’s defences. Demands for Israel to exercise restraint, as it did in April after Iran attacked it with 300 missiles, are unlikely to be heeded if major Israeli cities are being hit. It’s impossible to predict how much farther the conflict could spread from there.
*This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
**Michael Ben-Gad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment

Open Letter To Sheikh Qabalan
Elie Aoun/June 26/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/131124/131124/
In response to Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan’s appeal to the Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, we state as follows:
There is no disagreement about standing on the side of the oppressed or the weak and taking measures to help them. The disagreement is about the best means of doing so. Some choose the militant path, others consider wiser options.
In 2019, Netanyahu said: “Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support the bolstering of Hamas and transferring money to Hamas.”
It is evident that militancy is the path of the radical Israeli right-wing to thwart a Palestinian state. It is also their path to thwart a viable Lebanese state.
The military operations by Hamas and Hizballah were used by Israel as justifications to destroy Gaza and southern Lebanon – rendering the oppressed more oppressed and the weak weaker.
It is honorable for any nation to have its youth be willing to protect it. However, we have a responsibility to ensure that those sacrifices are not spent in vain and are not being used as tools or justifications in the hands of any enemy.
After the American invasion of Iraq, Israel provided the U.S. military with a list of Iraqi professors to be assassinated. It is reported that more than 467 Iraqi professors and lecturers have been assassinated since 2003. Why would Israel want to kill professors, while leaders of many militant groups roam Iraq and no one assassinates them?
Steve Jobs, the founder of Apple, is of Syrian origin (his father is Syrian). The company he established is today the world’s second most valuable company at $3.2 Trillion. If Steve Jobs was born in Syria, Lebanon, or Gaza, would he have made this achievement? The answer is no, primarily due to the environment (political, military, etc.).
Our primary assets are ourselves. That is what our enemies do not want us to use, and that is why we are always at war – to deplete our resources (human and otherwise). Is it wise to destroy ourselves fighting for soil?
The “sword of Islam” is being used to undermine the nations (Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan, etc.). The likes of Hamas and Hizballah have not given society anything except wars. The problem is not with the weapons. The problem is with the misuse of weapons. Instead of being tools for protecting a nation, they have become justifications to undermine it – preventing the rise of the people to better standards.
In 2005-2006, a proposal was made to incorporate Hizballah into a national system to protect the country. Hizballah’s leadership instigated the 2006 war with Israel and derailed any attempt for implementing such a program – which could have saved Lebanon two wars, thousands of human lives, and billions in material losses.
Both radical Israelis and radical Islamists do not want solutions. They consistently pursue the path that depletes the resources of the nation.
When we ask for neutrality, this means that we abstain from war in conflicts which are beyond our capacity to resolve militarily. It does not mean that we watch innocent Lebanese or Palestinians get killed and say nothing. It does not mean that we abandon our values and do not stand on the side of the oppressed.
There are better options than war and the unnecessary sacrifice of our youth and national resources. We can still pursue alternative solutions to the conflict, but radical Islamism and Islamic militancy are preventing advancement towards prosperity and genuine peace.

Amid Looming War, Lebanon Lacks Optimism over Int’l, US Warnings
Eyad Abu Shakra/Aharq Al-Awsat/June 27/2024
News from Lebanon indicates a daily shift towards a more grim and pessimistic outlook. Despite claiming to oppose this trend, many parties seem to be sliding further into worsening conditions, like sleepwalkers heading towards disaster.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned days ago that “the world cannot afford another Gaza in Lebanon,” but ground reports indicate a serious escalation, prompting concern.This comes amid rising threats between Hezbollah and Israeli authorities, and US envoy Amos Hochstein issuing warnings to all involved during a crucial US election year. In Israel, the departure of two moderate voices from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's inner circle has left him largely unchecked. Netanyahu, seen as one of Israel's most opportunistic politicians, now faces little restraint against any reckless or exploitative actions.
The departure of former Chiefs of Staff Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot from the government team managing the “Gaza displacement war” is a significant development. This change is likely to unsettle even Washington’s Republican hawks.
With pragmatic leaders gone, decisions on war and peace are now in the hands of opportunistic politicians like Netanyahu and extreme settler-ideologues like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. In many cases, experienced and thoughtful military leaders tend to value human life, peace, and understanding more than aggressive and populist politicians. It's notable how some Israeli military figures, starting out in militant right-wing roles, later moved towards moderation after witnessing the true costs of war. Ariel Sharon shifted to the center, while Ezer Weizman even leaned left at times.
This brings to mind a famous quote from American General William T. Sherman: “I am sick and tired of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation. War is hell.”
Following the resignations of Gantz and Eisenkot, the latter having lost his young son in the current Gaza conflict, from the government and the war cabinet, the three extremists—Netanyahu, Ben Gvir, and Smotrich—who have never fought a day, continue to beat the drums, deliver provocative speeches, and incite tensions. What’s even more paradoxical is that figures like these, adherents to Torah ideology—Netanyahu claiming such a stance—are adamant about exempting ultra-religious Torah followers from mandatory military service, yet simultaneously exploit Torah and Talmudic texts to justify ongoing wars and massacres. Meanwhile in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, persists in justifying his party's independent war agenda, sidelining the state's authority. Despite Hezbollah’s months-long adherence to its own rules of engagement with Israel, Nasrallah persists in coordinating communications through Nabih Berri, the Lebanese Speaker of Parliament, and his “friend,” envoy Hochstein, with the United States - once dubbed the “Great Satan.” In the past two weeks, alongside the Gaza conflict and escalating threats of war from Netanyahu’s team against Lebanon, tensions have risen on the Lebanese-Israeli front through exchanged messages. After Hezbollah intensified drone attacks, countered by Israeli assassinations and displacement operations, Nasrallah opened a new preemptive front—this time targeting Cyprus. This action bypasses any recognition or consultation with recognized state authorities.
Nasrallah has warned Cyprus against allowing Israel to use its airports and bases like Akrotiri/Episkopi and Dhekelia, threatening that this would drag them into conflict. He claimed Hezbollah had intel suggesting Israel might strike Lebanon from these locations if Hezbollah targets Israeli airports.
Nasrallah also hinted at Israel’s fear of Hezbollah invading Galilee amid escalating tensions, emphasizing Hezbollah’s readiness with new weaponry for any scenario. His remarks coincided with Israel revealing operational plans for a potential Lebanon strike and Foreign Minister Israel Katz renewing threats against Hezbollah amid ongoing border tensions since last October. Amid UN Chief Guterres’s caution and US envoy Hochstein’s urgency for a swift Hezbollah-Israel resolution, Lebanon’s volatile situation remains a concern. This is compounded by domestic woes while global attention focuses elsewhere.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 26-27/2024
US still keeping pause on one munitions shipment for Israel
REUTERS/June 26, 2024
WASHINGTON: Senior US officials told visiting Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday that the United States is maintaining a pause on a shipment of heavy munitions for Israel while the issue is under review, a top US official has said. The official, briefing reporters about White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s meeting with Gallant, said the two governments remain in discussions about the single shipment of heavy bombs, which was paused by President Joe Biden in early May over concerns the weapons could cause more Palestinian deaths in Gaza. Gallant was wrapping up a visit to discuss the next phase of the Gaza war against Hamas, escalating hostilities with Hezbollah fighters on the border with Lebanon that have spurred fears of a wider conflict and shared US-Israeli concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. He has also sought to cool tensions between the US and close ally Israel following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims that Washington was withholding weapons, prompting US officials to express disappointment and confusion over the Israeli leader’s remarks.

UN Aid Chief Concerned by Possible Expansion of Gaza War
Aharq Al-Awsat/June 26/2024
The United Nations aid chief said on Wednesday he was concerned by the possible spread of the Gaza war across the region, including to the West Bank, despite aid agencies being adequately prepared for that prospect.
The West Bank, where the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority exercises limited self-rule under Israeli occupation, has already suffered its worst unrest for decades in parallel with the war in Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas.
The UN human rights office has said that 528 Palestinians, including 133 children, have been killed by Israeli security forces or settlers in the West Bank since the Gaza war began, and has "serious concerns of unlawful killings" in some cases.
"We are worried about the potential for further tragedy and deaths and the events in the West Bank, as well as, of course, the threats and the possibilities (of conflict) in Lebanon," Martin Griffiths, who heads the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), told reporters in Geneva. "There's a lot of preparedness on the aid side. That's not the problem," he said. "The problem is stopping this war getting worse and stopping the people of Palestine from their right to their future. That's the worry that I think we should all have." Israel, which launched its Gaza military operation after the deadly Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7, says it has expanded efforts to facilitate aid flows to Gaza and blames aid agencies for distribution problems inside the enclave. Griffiths said demands for unimpeded humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip still stood. "We want all those crossing points open, we want safety and security protocols, we want deconfliction which we can rely on, and that we want aid workers and health institutions not being victims of the war," he said, also calling for a ceasefire. Griffiths said it was "astonishingly cruel" that, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), more than 495,000 people across Gaza were facing the most severe, or "catastrophic", level of food insecurity. That figure is down from a forecast of 1.1 million in the previous update three months ago, but is still more than one fifth of Gaza's population. Griffiths said the new figure was "outrageous" but that it indicated some aid was making it to Gazans.

Israeli forces pound north and south Gaza, battle Hamas in Rafah
Nidal al-Mughrabi/CAIRO (Reuters)/June 26, 2024
Israeli forces pounded several areas across Gaza on Wednesday, and residents reported fierce fighting overnight in Rafah in the south of the Palestinian enclave. Residents said fighting intensified in the Tel Al-Sultan neighbourhood in western Rafah, where tanks were also trying to force their way north amid heavy clashes. The armed wings of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad said fighters attacked Israeli forces with anti-tank rockets and mortar bombs. Since early May, ground fighting has focused on Rafah, abutting Egypt on Gaza's southern edge, where around half of the enclave's 2.3 million people had been sheltering after fleeing other areas. Most have since had to flee again. Israel says that it is close to destroying the last remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah, after which it will move to smaller scale operations in the enclave. Medics said two Palestinians were killed in one Israeli missile strike in Rafah. The Israeli military said in a statement its forces killed a Hamas militant who had been involved in the smuggling of weapons through the border between Rafah and Egypt. It said jets struck dozens of militant targets in Rafah overnight, including fighters, military structures and tunnel shafts. Later on Wednesday, an Israeli strike killed three Palestinians and wounded others near the northern Jabalia camp, one of the Gaza Strip's eight historic refugee camps, medics said. Residents and Hamas media said the casualties were among a group of people who gathered outside a store to get an internet signal to communicate with relatives elsewhere in the enclave. In Nuseirat camp in the central Gaza Strip, tank shells struck an apartment, killing at least five people and wounding others, medics said.
The Israeli military had no immediate comment.
HOSTAGE DEAL PLEA
Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza was triggered when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people and seizing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. The Israeli offensive in retaliation has so far killed 37,658 people, of them 60 in the past 24 hours, the Gaza health ministry said on Tuesday, and has left the tiny, heavily built-up Gaza Strip in ruins. The Gaza health ministry does not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, but officials say most those killed have been civilians. Israel has lost 314 soldiers in Gaza and says at least a third of the Palestinian dead are fighters. More than eight months into the war, international mediation backed by the U.S. has failed to yield a ceasefire agreement. Hamas says any deal must bring an end to the war and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel says it will accept only temporary pauses in fighting until Hamas is eradicated. Orly Gilboa, whose 20-year-old daughter Daniela is being held hostage in Gaza, called on Israeli leaders to accept the deal and on the international community to pressure Hamas to do the same. "The deal is there to be signed and implemented. I'm asking my own government to stand behind its own proposal, to be brave as our girls are, to save them, to save us. Time is running out," she told a press conference in Tel Aviv.
SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGE
In the northern Gaza Strip, Palestinians complained of a severe lack of food and soaring prices, and health officials said thousands of children were suffering from malnutrition that has already killed at least 30 since Oct. 7. "There is only flour and canned food, there is nothing else to eat, no vegetables, no meat, and no milk," said Abu Mustafa, who lives in Gaza City, with his family. Their house was struck in the past week by an Israeli tank, that destroyed most of the upper floor. "Apart from the bombing, there is another Israeli war taking place in northern Gaza, starvation. People meet in the street and many can't recognise one another because of weight loss and older looks," Abu Mustafa told Reuters via a chat app. Gaza remains at high risk of famine, though delivery of some aid has limited the projected spread of extreme hunger in northern areas, a global monitor said on Tuesday. More than 495,000 people across the Gaza Strip are facing the most severe, or "catastrophic", level of food insecurity, according to an update from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) a global partnership used by the United Nations and aid agencies. Wrapping up a visit to Washington, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel was fighting against Hamas, not the people of Gaza. "We are committed, and I am personally committed, to facilitating the delivery of essential humanitarian aid to Gaza. We only fight those who seek to harm us," Gallant said in a video statement.

At least 2,000 medical evacuations from Gaza prevented by Rafah crossing closure, says WHO
Reuters/June 26/2024 d
The closure of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza has prevented the medical evacuations of at least 2,000 patients, a World Health Organization official said on Tuesday, calling for Rafah and other routes to be reopened. Before the closure, "approximately 50 critical patients a day left Gaza ... It means that since the 7th of May at least 2,000 people have been unable to leave Gaza to receive medical care," said Rik Peeperkorn, WHO representative in the West Bank and Gaza. The Rafah crossing was the main conduit for evacuations as well as for humanitarian aid earlier in the war that began between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7. It shut when Israel launched an operation on the southern edge of the Gaza strip in May. The United States, Egypt and Qatar held talks late last week aimed at re-opening the crossing and increasing humanitarian aid flows, according to Egyptian security sources. But Rafah, where Egypt wants Israeli troops to pull back and a Palestinian presence to be restored, remains closed. Movement through the nearby Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom crossing, which Peeperkorn described as unsafe, has been impeded by insecurity and logistical challenges. At least 10,000 people are in need of evacuation from Gaza, Peeperkorn said, adding that this was an underestimate of the number needing critical care for both war traumas and chronic diseases. "We need more routes for medical emergency evacuation (medevac), we would like to see Kerem Shalom and other routes also opened for medevac where patients can then be referred to the referral hospitals in East Jerusalem and the West Bank," Peeperkorn said. A group of five children who had been evacuated from northern Gaza to Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis and were reportedly poised to leave the strip were still awaiting evacuation, Peeperkorn said.

Independent UN experts accuse Sudan’s warring parties of using starvation as weapon
Samy Magdy/CAIRO (AP)/June 26, 2024
Human rights experts working for the United Nations on Wednesday accused Sudan’s warring parties of using starvation as a war weapon, amid mounting warnings about imminent famine in the African nation. Sudan plunged into chaos in April last year when simmering tensions between the country’s military and a notorious paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, exploded into open fighting in the capital, Khartoum and elsewhere in the country. Fourteen months of fighting have killed more than 14,000 people and wounded 33,000 others, according to the United Nations, but rights activists say the toll could be much higher. There were widespread reports of rampant sexual violence and other atrocities that rights groups say amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The conflict created the world’s largest displacement crisis with over 11 million people forced to flee their homes. “Both the SAF and the RSF are using food as a weapon and starving civilians,” the experts said, using initials for the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. “The extent of hunger and displacement we see in Sudan today is unprecedented and never witnessed before,” they said. Neither the military nor the RSF returned phone calls seeking comment. The experts warned that famine has become imminent in the country as humanitarian aid has been blocked and harvest season was disrupted because of the war. They added that more than 25 million civilians in Sudan and those who fled the country are being starved and need urgent humanitarian assistance. A report by Clingendael Institute said last month that around 2.5 million people in Sudan could die from hunger by the end of September, with about 15% of the population in the regions of Darfur and Kordofan being likely the worst affected. The independent experts said local efforts in response to Sudan's hunger crisis have been hampered by unprecedented violence and targeted attacks on civil society and local responders. Dozens of activists and local volunteers have been arrested, threatened and prosecuted in recent weeks, they said. “The deliberate targeting of humanitarian workers and local volunteers has undermined aid operations, putting millions of people at further risk of starvation,” they said. “Local responders are risking their health and lives and working across battle lines.” They urged both sides to “stop blocking, looting and exploiting humanitarian assistance.” The experts are part of the Special Procedures, which is the largest body of independent experts in the United Nations Human Rights system. The fighting has in recent months centered around el-Fasher, the capital city of North Darfur province, trapping hundreds of thousands of civilians. At least 143,000 people have been forced to flee el-Fasher over the past three months, according to the U.N. The U.N.’s Security Council earlier this month demanded the RSF to immediately end its siege of the city, which is the military’s last stronghold in the sprawling Darfur region.

Ukraine's Zelenskyy visits front-line troops under pressure from Russia's onslaught in eastern areas
Illia Novikov/KYIV, Ukraine (AP) /June 26, 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on Wednesday visited troops in the eastern Donetsk region who have weathered fierce Russian ground and air assaults in recent months. The Kremlin's army has escalated its efforts to dislodge exhausted and outgunned Ukrainian forces holding eastern and northeastern areas. It aims to capture more land during spring and summer as muddy fields have dried out, allowing heavy military equipment to roll into key positions across the countryside. Russia illegally annexed parts of Donetsk and three other regions in 2022 shortly after it invaded Ukraine, and the Kremlin regards taking control of all of Donetsk as a priority. Moscow is looking to exploit its advantages in troops and weaponry before Ukraine can get promised additional Western supplies to the front.
Civilians have also felt the force of Russia's onslaught. Ahead of Zelenskyy’s visit, Russian forces dropped a powerful glide bomb on the Donetsk city of Selydove, causing extensive damage to 37 homes, six multi-story buildings and administrative infrastructure, regional authorities said Wednesday. They reported no injuries. Over the previous 24 hours, the Russian military shelled 20 Donetsk region settlements, killing one person and injuring at least nine, regional head Vadym Filashkin said. About 250 people have been evacuated from their homes in the Donetsk region since Tuesday, officials said. Zelenskyy also discussed with local officials the public drinking water supply, social issues, evacuation plans and the rebuilding of local homes, he said. Zelenskyy signaled he wants a better response from Kyiv officials overseeing those matters. He didn't elaborate on the perceived problems and which officials he would speak to. Zelenskyy has frequently visited front-line areas during the war. His said his trip to the Donetsk region was to introduce the new commander of the Joint Forces Command, Andrii Hnatov. Hnatov replaced Yurii Sodol, who had held the position since February 2023. Zelenskyy didn’t give a reason for the change, but it came after the widely admired chief of staff of the Azov brigade, Bohdan Krotevych, released a statement rebuking an unnamed general for having “killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general,” in what was seen as a reference to incompetent management of troops. Several Ukrainian media outlets, quoting unidentified sources in the armed forces, said he was referring to Sodol.

Pakistan security forces have arrested 2 key Pakistani Taliban commanders, an official says ABDUL SATTAR
QUETTA, Pakistan (AP)/June 26, 2024
Security forces in Pakistan have arrested two key commanders of the Pakistani Taliban in the country's volatile southwest, an official said Wednesday. The interior minister of Baluchistan province, Ziaullah Langau, congratulated the security forces for “saving the country from possible high-profile attacks” by arresting the militants, whom he identified as Commander Nasrullah and Commander Idress. He said the arrests, seen as a significant boost for Pakistan's government, were part of a “sophisticated intelligence-based operation.” The government announced this week the launch of a nationwide crackdown on insurgents. The arrests came during a surge in attacks by the Pakistani Taliban, who are a separate group but are allied with the Afghan Taliban, who seized power in neighboring Afghanistan in 2021 as U.S. and NATO troops were in the final stages of their pullout from the country after 20 years of war. At a news conference in Quetta, Langau released a video statement by Nasrullah in which he said he had been part of the Pakistani Taliban for 16 years, including several years which he spent in Afghanistan to escape Pakistani military operations. He alleged that the group as well as Baluch separatists received support from Afghanistan's Taliban government. In March, five Chinese engineers were killed when a suicide bomber targeted their vehicle in the northwest. Pakistan has said the attack was planned in Afghanistan and the bomber was an Afghan citizen. Afghanistan's government and Pakistani militants have denied the allegations. Baluch insurgents have also targeted Chinese in Baluchistan, which has been the scene of low-level insurgency by nationalists for more than two decades. They initially wanted a bigger share of provincial resources but are now seeking independence. The Pakistani Taliban and other domestic militant groups also operate in the province.

First candidate drops out of Iran presidential election, due to take place Friday amid voter apathy
Jon Gambrell And Nasser Karimi/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) / June 26, 2024
A candidate in Iran's presidential election withdrew from the race late Wednesday, becoming the first to back out in order for hard-liners to coalesce around a unity candidate in the vote to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi.Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, dropped his candidacy and urged other candidates to do the same “so that the front of the revolution will be strengthened,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported. Ghazizadeh Hasehmi served as one of Raisi’s vice presidents and as the head of the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs. He ran in the 2021 presidential election and received just under 1 million votes, coming in last place. Such withdrawals are common in the final hours of an Iranian presidential election, particularly in the last 24 hours before the vote is held when campaigns enter a mandatory quiet period without rallies. Voters go to the polls Friday. Ghazizadeh Hasehmi's decision leaves five other candidates still in the race. Analysts and experts broadly see the race at the moment as a three-way contest. Two hard-liners, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, are fighting over the same bloc, experts say. Then there's the sole reformist in the race, Masoud Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon who has associated himself with the former administration of the relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who reached Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Iran’s theocracy under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has maintained its stance of not approving women or anyone calling for radical change to the country’s government for the ballot. However, Khamenei in recent days has called for a “maximum” turnout in the vote, while also issuing a veiling warning to Pezeshkian and his allies about relying on the United States. A widespread public apathy has descended in the Iranian capital over the election, coming after the May helicopter crash that killed Raisi. After the promise nearly a decade ago of Tehran’s nuclear deal opening up Iran to the rest of the world, Iranians broadly face crushing economic conditions and a far-more uncertain Middle East that already has seen the Islamic Republic directly attack Israel for the first time. The limited options in the election, as well as widespread discontent over Iran's ongoing crackdown on Iranian women over the mandatory headscarf, has some saying they won't vote. “I did not watch any of the debates since I have no plan to vote,” said Fatemeh Jazayeri, a 27-year-old unemployed woman with a master’s degree. “I voted for Rouhani seven years ago, but he failed to deliver his promises for better economy. Any promise by any candidates will remain on paper only.”Worshippers in Tehran at Friday prayers, typically more conservative than others in the city, appeared more willing to vote. Mahmoud Seyedi, a 46-year-old shopkeeper, said he and his wife alongside two young daughters will vote, “My wife and I have decided to vote for Qalibaf since he knows how to solve problems of the country because years of experiences but my daughters are thinking about Jalili, too,” he said. “By the way, voting is a duty for us.” Parivash Emami, 49, another at prayers, said she hoped his vote could help Iran overcome its problems. “Qalibaf knows details of problems in details, the rest are either critics or promise to solve problems without offering any program,” Emami said.

Iran election hopefuls struggle to offer fix for economic woes
Reuters/June 26, 2024
Candidates in Friday's Iranian presidential election have vowed to revive the flagging economy, but voters see little prospect of relief from a cost of living squeeze without an end to sanctions and an easing of Iran's international isolation. The daily struggle of ordinary Iranians to make ends meet is a persistent challenge for Iran's ruling clerics, who fear a revival of protests that have erupted periodically by lower and middle-income communities angry at enduring hardship. The reinstatement of U.S. sanctions in 2018 hit Iran's oil exports, slashing government revenues and forcing it to take unpopular steps such as increasing taxes and running big budget deficits, policies that have kept annual inflation close to 40%. Although the country has avoided total economic meltdown, thanks mainly to oil exports to China and higher crude prices, petroleum exports are still below their pre-2018 levels. Most candidates seeking to replace Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash last month say they plan to emulate his policy of economic self-reliance and more business ties to Asia. Others have defended broader relations with the world without offering practical steps to address sanctions. During Raisi's three years in power, Iran’s economy re-emerged from a 2018-19 slump caused by the 2018 reimposition of sanctions, and growth peaked at 5.7% for the year ending in March, according to Iran’s Statistical Center. Yet most of this expansion was driven by the energy sector, as the country experienced a 70% rise in oil output, now running at about 3.5 million barrels per day, with oil exports exceeding 1.4 million barrels per day, and mainly going to China. Without hydrocarbons, Iran’s growth last year would have been just 3.4% and its trade balance would have hit a deficit of $16.8 billion, according to Mohammad Rezvanifar, the head of the Iranian customs service. Foreign direct investment has also stalled at $1.5 billion in 2022, according to UNCTAD.
FALLING PURCHASING POWER
Unemployment is running at about 7.6%, according to the World Bank, compared to 9.6% when Raisi was elected. Yet many formal jobs pay a pittance, meaning the true figure of people without adequate work to live on is probably far higher. “It is not difficult to understand why most Iranians are angry,” said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, Professor of Economics at Virginia Tech. “Living standards and poverty may have improved in the last two years, but this is not true going back a decade or two. The new president can inject hope and stop the conditions from getting worse, but not get Iran back to the 2000s,” Salehi-Isfahani added, referring to a more prosperous period.
Iranians’ purchasing power continued to shrink during Raisi’s presidency as the Iranian rial's free market rate more than halved, according to Iranian currency tracking website Bonbast, now reaching a value of 600,000 to the U.S. dollar. Prices for basic goods like dairy, rice and meat have skyrocketed in recent months. The subsidized price of Lavash bread, the most popular for Iranian households, shot up by at least 230% in the last three years, while red meat has become too expensive for many, its price rising by 440% to $10 per kg. A teacher’s monthly salary is about $180 and many construction workers earn little more than $10 a day. Candidates have promised to implement the country’s seventh development plan approved last year by parliament. It aims to curb inflation and develop exports and sets out ambitious targets of achieving 8% annual growth under sanctions. But World Bank forecasts for the next three years see annual growth rates below 3.2% for Iran, as a result of subdued global demand, sanctions and domestic energy shortages. Voters interviewed by Reuters said the state of the economy was tied to the country's diplomatic posture, which is strongly anti-Western and is determined by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni, the country's ultimate decision maker. In his three years in office, Raisi, a Khamenei loyalist, vowed not to link the economy to nuclear negotiations with world powers, even though the talks could have lifted most U.S. curbs by reviving a 2015 pact limiting Tehran's atomic programme.
CONTINUITY IN POLICY
"The economy has been greatly affected by foreign policy, as no successful strategy is in place to reduce sanctions’ destructive impacts," said Mohammad, an administrator at Rudehen University in Tehran province. Like other voters interviewed he did not want his full name used due to the election's sensitivity. The snap ballot has given candidates little time to develop detailed economic plans. Most said the economy should become more self-reliant before Iran tries to end sanctions, imposed over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme, while low-key moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardline cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi were more vocal on the need to open up relations to help the economy. Election debates have mainly focused on fiscal imbalances, mismanagement of resources and graft, domestic issues which many Iranians believe are deep-rooted and resistant to reform. "As long as government policies do not efficiently back competition, transparency and investment security, things will just get worse," said Peyman, a municipal engineer from Tehran. Mehdi Ghazanfari, chairman of Iran’s sovereign wealth fund, told state media a lack of developed political parties meant election candidates did not identify future ministers or policies in advance, and the winner usually rushed to appoint a cabinet "that ends up being inconsistent". Iran's economic outlook looks ever more uncertain, analysts say, with the possible return of Donald Trump as U.S. president likely leading to tougher enforcement of oil sanctions, former foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said in defence of Pezeshkian’s campaign.

Houthis in Yemen Say They Targeted Ship in Haifa Port with ‘Islamic Resistance’ in Iraq
Aharq Al-Awsat/June 26/2024
The Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen said on Wednesday they targeted a ship in Israel's Haifa port with a number of drones in a joint military operation with the so-called “Islamic Resistance” in Iraq. The operation targeted the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Manzanillo, the Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a televised speech on Wednesday. The Israeli military is not aware of any such incident, a spokesperson said, and there was no indication of anything unusual at Haifa port. The Houthis have been launching drone and missile strikes in shipping lanes since November, in what it says is in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. They first launched drone and missile strikes in shipping lanes in November. In dozens of attacks, they have sunk two vessels, seized another and killed at least three seafarers.

French Court Upholds Warrant for Syria’s Assad over Chemical Weapons
Aharq Al-Awsat/June 27/2024
An arrest warrant issued for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over the use of banned chemical weapons against civilians was upheld by a Paris court on Wednesday, one of the lawyers who lodged the initial case said. The warrant issued by French judges in November 2023 refers to charges of complicity in crimes against humanity and complicity in war crimes, followed a French investigation into chemical attacks in Douma and the district of Eastern Ghouta in August 2013, attacks which killed more than 1,000 people. Prosecutors, who would be responsible for asking the police to enact the warrant, had challenged its validity, arguing that, as a sitting head of state, Assad was immune from trial and prosecution in France. "Today is a very special day and this is a historic victory, not only for the Syrian victims, but for all the victims around the world," said Mazen Darwish, head of the Syrian Center for Media & Freedom of the Press. "The court’s decision confirms what we have always said – that when the issue concerns crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the use of chemical weapons, immunity should never be relied upon." Assad's government has denied using chemical weapons against its opponents in the civil war, which broke out in March 2011. Syrian authorities did not immediately reply to a request for comment on Wednesday's Court of Appeal ruling. Arrest warrants for sitting heads of state are rare because they generally have immunity from prosecution. However, international law has exceptions to that immunity when a head of state is accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity or genocide. France is among the countries that allows the filing of crimes against humanity cases in its courts. "This decision makes clear that international rules on immunity cannot be synonymous with impunity, particularly for the most serious international crimes," Steve Kostas, senior legal officer at Open Society Justice initiative, said in reaction to the verdict.

Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on June 26-27/2024
Diplomacy, sanctions and soft power have failed to deter Iran’s anti-West agenda − could a new Iranian president change that?
Nakissa Jahanbani, Penn State and Daniel P. Colletti, United States Military Academy West Point/Wed, June 26, 2024
Iran’s presidential election on June 28 may provide Tehran an opportunity to press reset on foreign policy issues after years of increasing hawkishness. Indeed, a key campaign issue has been the extent to which the candidates may – or may not – pivot to more engagement with the West. While the supreme leader – the country’s highest religious and political authority – is the ultimate arbiter on dealing with international powers, Iran’s president has influence in a political system in which there are multiple centers of power.
The presidential vote, which was forced by the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a May 2024 helicopter crash, comes as Iran wrestles with major interrelated domestic, regional and global concerns. The country’s economy continues to suffer from international sanctions, the latest round of which were levied by the U.S. and U.K. in April 2024 after Iran conducted a direct strike on Israel. Sanctions aren’t the West’s only way to apply pressure on Tehran: Cyber warfare, soft power and military might are also at countries’ disposal. Yet Iran’s activities – such as funding proxy militant groups, circumventing sanctions through China and Russia and advancing its domestic nuclear and missiles programs – have continued unabated in recent years.
As experts on U.S. foreign policy and Iran, we believe this raises an important question: Are the U.S. and its allies’ efforts at deterring Iran having any impact? And could a change in president provide an opportunity for the West to revamp its approach to Iran?
The limits of diplomacy
Since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, the U.S. and Iran have had no formal diplomatic ties. But that doesn’t mean that there are no diplomatic efforts. In fact, there are unofficial channels, such as the U.S. working through the Swiss government.
But U.S. diplomatic efforts with Iran are complicated at the best of times. They’re prone to disruption when the U.S. or Iran changes leadership and have been made only more difficult as Iran has grown closer with China and Russia.
The result has been an inconsistent diplomatic policy when it comes to how the U.S., and the West more generally, deal with Tehran. This is a result, in part, of China gaining more influence in the Middle East and deepening its economic and strategic ties with Tehran. Similarly, Russia has strengthened military, political and economic links with Iran.
This has blunted the impact of Western diplomacy; Iran simply doesn’t feel compelled to come to an agreement with the U.S. and its allies on security interests.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear nonproliferation agreement signed in 2015 but abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018, is a prime example. Western leaders have sought to ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, but they failed to get cooperation from Iran after President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement. Despite this lack of progress, the U.S. and Iran still have lines of communication. After Israel’s attack on an Iranian Embassy compound in Syria, the U.S. clearly signaled to Tehran it had no involvement in the operation in an apparent attempt to avoid a retaliatory strike on U.S. interests in the region.
Nonetheless, Iran has little incentive to negotiate given the inconsistent, unpredictable policies of U.S. leadership. Meanwhile, an impending U.S.-Saudi security pact could push Iran further from engagement with the West and closer to China and Russia’s orbit.
The U.S. and Europe ultimately have two goals: to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon and to reduce Iran-sponsored conflict in the Middle East. But to date, both goals seem elusive, with Iran’s continued, unabated uranium enrichment and its attacks throughout the Middle East regularly taking place. In the past, Iran gave diplomacy a chance out of fear that not showing some willingness could play into the hands of Western hawks who are pushing for military strikes against Iran. A new reformist president in Iran could galvanize support for bringing diplomats to the negotiating table. However, it would likely need the supreme leader’s blessing. In any event, the next president is looking more likely to be a hard-liner aligned with the supreme leader. And while they may feel domestic and international pressure to advocate for a more conciliatory tone, they may just as easily double down on current policy.
Peddling soft power
With confidence in reaching a diplomatic solution waning, the U.S. and its allies have turned to other means to pressure Iran. Western intelligence agencies have carried out various information campaigns and cyber operations aimed at undermining confidence in Iran’s leaders and their regional strategies. For example, in 2010 a joint U.S.-Israel cyber operation named Stuxnet compromised the Natanz nuclear material enrichment facility in Iran, degrading and disrupting normal centrifuge operations while signaling to operators they were operating normally.
An exterior of industrial building with a sign in front of it.
Such operations continue to this day in response to Iran’s failing to address U.S. security concerns on nuclear proliferation and its anti-West activities in the region.
Tehran likewise engages in cyber warfare. In 2023, a U.S. report warned that Iran is likely to increase its use of aggressive cyber operations to achieve its policy goals. They include the use of state-sponsored proxies to deploy destructive malware and ransomware. The Iranian presidential election comes amid a backdrop of domestic discontent – and offers the West an opportunity to flex another tactic to pressure Tehran: anti-regime propaganda. In an effort to reduce support for the existing government and sow discontent among the Iranian public, independent radio and news networks backed by the U.S. and its European allies have targeted the Iranian public with anti-Iranian government messaging and amplified local protests.
Falling back on sanctions
Iran’s presidential candidates have broadly promised sanctions relief, potentially to counter messaging from the West. Such efforts suggest the candidates are sensitive to the sanctions’ disproportionate effects on everyday Iranians, particularly the middle class. In recent years, the U.S. and Europe have increased sanctions on Iran for a variety of reasons. Iran’s repressive response to the 2022 protests following the death of a young woman, Mahsa Jina Amini, in police custody triggered various sanctions from the European Union. Most recently, in April, the U.S. and U.K. leveraged sanctions to dissuade Iran from escalating the conflict in the Middle East and selling drones to Russia.Sanctions, such as those leveraged during the U.S.’s maximum pressure campaign during Trump’s presidency, have undeniably placed some pressure on Iran’s financial systems and trade. You can see their influence in the country’s high inflation rates and economic contraction. But some analysts have argued that the campaign has hardened Iran and undermined diplomatic efforts. Others hold that sanctions have had no effect, given how Russia and China have provided relief by giving Iran access to their markets. While sanctions have demonstrably weakened Iran’s economy, their success in achieving the broader strategy of bringing Iran back to the negotiating table – particularly concerning its nuclear program and regional activities – is less clear.
Turning to military means?
Since Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel, the U.S. has shown a growing willingness to turn to military responses to counter Iranian-backed groups. The most notable U.S. and U.K. airstrikes occurred in February, in retaliation for an earlier drone strike by an Iranian-backed group that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan. To date, Western airstrikes have carried more of a symbolic effect aimed at dampening Iranian-backed provocations. But they demonstrate the U.S. and its allies’ military might. In recent years, diplomacy, sanctions and soft power have failed to entice Iran’s leaders back to the table. Iran’s new president may well continue down the path of disengagement, but doing so risks inviting the West to sharpen its deterrence response. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Nakissa Jahanbani, Penn State and Daniel P. Colletti, United States Military Academy West Point

The Road to Acquiescence
Raymond Ibrahim/Sword and Scimitar/June 26/2024
The following article was written by Joachim Osther
there was a much larger but wholly forgotten backstory…the recollection of which can revolutionize the way the West understands its past, and thus its present, with Islam.
Raymond Ibrahim, Sword and Scimitar
After two Swedes were targeted and murdered by a radical Islamist in Brussels last Fall, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said the quiet part aloud – “these terrorists want to frighten us into obedience and silence. That will not happen. This is a time for more security. We can’t be naïve.”
He should have added, “any longer.”
Had European leaders only arrived at this lucid insight prior to 2015 (the year that changed a continent), then it’s likely the two Swedes would be alive today.
Instead, a century steeped in secular atheism has produced in Western consciousness the attempt to distance itself from Christianity (and its Christian roots) and apologize for Western civilization writ large.
Gradually, centuries of Western struggle against Islamic jihad was expunged and re-imagined into an anti-Western narrative that envisions Muslims and Islamic nations as de facto victims of the West; and so, with penitent atheists lining the welcome mats, Europe opened the gates and millions poured in.
“In Sweden, the mood at the time was that this was one of the most welcoming countries anywhere,” said a Swedish reporter describing the 2015 migrant influx, “and a year earlier the prime minister had given a speech asking Swedes to open their hearts to migrants.”
Many of the migrants were escaping the ‘Arab Spring’ which had sparked a resurgence of fundamentalist Islamic groups and leaders throughout Middle Eastern and North African countries. To be sure, many migrants settled in as productive members of society in their new European homelands; and to be sure, there were (and will always be) those that did not.
The Forgotten Backstory
The ‘forgotten backstory’ that is lost on the West is described in detail by Raymond Ibrahim in his book, Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, as encompassing over a millennia of civilizational clashes between Islam and the West, and characterized by unbending consistency in Islamic rationale.
Ibrahim traces specific mandates calling for Jihad through careful documentation of Koranic directives along with primary source materials containing teachings of Islamic scholars and clerics from across the ages. In doing so, he clearly illustrates how global Islamic hegemony is an overarching mission, with conversion or subjugation of all non-Muslims as a directive, and jihad as the obligatory means.
This missional uniformity, however, has been jettisoned from Western analysis as the new secular epistemology of guilt insists on race, nationality, and economics as the a priori sources of Islamic ire. As such, many Westerners remain myopically naive to what Ibrahim calls “the interconnectivity of Islam” – the fact that 21st Century jihad is driven by the same objectives as 7th Century jihad.
What’s more, their erroneous suppositions have sent Europeans and liberal Americans careening down a path solely preoccupied with ‘fixing’ the antipathy through a doctrine of apology made manifest by opening borders and then abdicating ideals, laws, and societal norms in order to accommodate demands made by Islamic fundamentalist migrants.
This, in turn, fans the embers of the fundamentalist segments who perceive such moves as attestation of Islamic superiority and Western weakness, further awakening their overarching hegemonic objective.
An Unfortunate Example
Though Scandinavian countries are growing weary of Islamic violence, recent actions illustrate that the forgotten backstory still remains veiled.
In February, Ibrahim described that the Danes are adopting what “amounts to a ‘blasphemy’ law” that bans the destruction of religious material. The ostensible purpose is “to counter ‘the systematic mockery’ that, among other things, has contributed to intensifying the threat of [Islamic] terrorism in Denmark, the Ministry of Justice said.”
Consistent with anti-Western secular doctrine, the threat of Islamic terrorism is mystifyingly blamed on the Danes themselves while they simultaneously castrate the Western ideal of free speech and unknowingly abdicate further ground to fundamentalist Muslims.
A symbol of hope for the Danes, however, is framed on the office wall of this author – an armband of faded blue felt, with a stripe of red and white cloth running down the middle and a medallion emblazoned with a shield and three heraldic lions in the center.
This was the garment worn clandestinely by members of the Danish Resistance movement during the five years of German occupation from 1940 to 1945. It serves as a reminder of long-standing and intrinsic Danish fortitude and also the bravery of the man who wore it – my grandfather.
There was no stopping the invading Nazi war machine that barreled across the Danish border on April 9th, 1940. One can only hope that the Danes wake from their secularist stupor and recognize the actual precipitant behind the growing Islamic fundamentalist threat; and in doing so, halt their bewildering excursion down the road to acquiescence.
*Joachim Osther is a multi-disciplinarian – a freelance writer focusing on the intersection of culture and Christianity. Osther holds a master’s degree in theological studies while working as a strategist, advisor, and published author in the life sciences.

On Unity, Division, Federalism, and Beyond
Hazem Saghieh/Aharq Al-Awsat/June 27/2024
Contrary to the American political tradition, where "federalism" is a concept with positive connotations, the French experience offered a different meaning. The term may have been used as a slur for the first time following the French Revolution of 1789, when cities across France witnessed uprisings against the Jacobins and the "Committee of Public Safety."
Most of the insurgents were sympathizers of the more moderate Girondins, refusing the centralization of all power in the capital, Paris, and the denial of any authority to the 82 other French Departments. And so, their radical rivals labeled them "federalists" when they would accuse them of seeking to divide the nation and the state, before mercilessly crushing their uprisings.
This experience left a mark on modern French history and rendered France, with its adoption of centralization, the biggest exception to the federalism opted for by most European countries. It thereby establishes the discourse of maligning federalism, as well as division, secession, and fragmentation, which are all portrayed as synonyms.
However, it is worth noting that later on, the term was used to express disapproval more frequently in the countries of the "Third World," in which the desire for unity exists side by side with the weakness of this unity’s components, than anywhere else.
Today, this trajectory is moving forward with unprecedented force, at least in the Arab Levant. Those behind its malalignment do not vilify federalism because of their commitment to stringent Jacobin centralism; they do so from fragmented states defined by division whose central governments are atrophying, as we can see in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Even those who openly support extreme centralism, as well as the tyranny and arbitrariness it implies, have become incapable of maintaining it, as reflected by the overall situation in Syria, but also in Iraq.
In fact, it can be said that, broadly, the worse things get in the Levant, the stronger the tone with which fragmentation and division, which colonialism is said to foster, are denounced. It's as though, amid the storms of mythic consciousness relentlessly blowing our way, we are reaffirming the validity of the meaning behind the famous (and accurate) phrase mocking Polish anti-Semitism: the fewer the Jews there are, the stronger anti-Semitism becomes.
However, atrophy and myth are not entirely ineffective, and to a large extent, that is due to our inherited discourse glorifying unity and denying its crises.
For instance, in Lebanon, the defeat of the state has yet to be fully acknowledged, and nor has the victory of the militia. It is true that the masses sense and understand this reality ("there is no state" has become a cliche), but those preoccupied with electing a new president are becoming increasingly preoccupied by this pursuit, or increasingly keen to ensure that their grievances about the unconstitutionality of the parliamentary speaker's actions are put on the record, believing that they are making a difference on public life by doing so. Thus, they are behaving and making their bets on the assumption that the state exists and merely needs to be rebuilt and have its unity reinforced.
On the other hand, Hezbollah continues to stress that its sole concern is resistance and "protecting Lebanon" - it would never intervene, God forbid, in other affairs tied purely to the state.
We know, given the countless experiences that are now behind us, that litmus tests of loyalty to a single state are determined by neither "declarations" of fealty to it, nor coupling them with "declarations" of respecting the Taif Agreement. Rather, they are determined by solid and tangible concessions to other groups that affirm the prioritization of coexistence and putting the interests of all communities over the interests of any particular community. This, however, is not at all on the agenda.
Thus, the most realistic among the various statists are those calling on Hezbollah to govern the country directly and take its establishment of a state to the end, with no pretenses or claims to duality, thereby ensuring the "unity" being pursued, which is the only "unity" possible. Nonetheless, for many well-known reasons, no one says this.
However, declaring that the state is not dead and turning one’s attention to satirizing federalism, division, and other such "diseases," help and serve only one party: Hezbollah. Doing so, during the few periods of peace, allows the party to play the role of a humble and innocent organization that wants nothing but to protect a country that it loves and remains faithful, seeking nothing in return. During times of war, it allows the party to drag a "united" country into its battles, using the “entire” country as fodder for its wars. Any slackers are deemed traitors to this single nation and single state!
In other words, emphasizing a simple form of unity and satirizing its opponents merely solidifies the militia's control while absolving it of responsibility. This claim, with only minor differences, is equally applicable in both Iraq and Syria. The unity of these countries has suffered the same fate as the Palestinian cause, whereby Palestine was killed and its cause immortalized. This cause has become, among other things, an asset for militias and regional ambitions, and material used to kill, extort, and subjugate Palestinians.
The fact remains that those benefiting from this approach, and from the skeleton of unity, are not Jacobins who were influenced by Rousseau and adore unity and centralism, but militias that rip everything apart and raise the banner of unity high- anyone who says otherwise is a traitor.

Far-right surge in EU elections signals major shift
Seyid Ould Abah/Arab News/June 26, 2024
The June 9 European Parliament elections saw a significant shift in European politics, which is likely to have a lasting impact on the future of the EU.
Far-right parties emerged as the leading force in five EU member states — France, Italy, Belgium, Austria and Hungary — and also improved their electoral performance in key countries such as Germany and the Netherlands.
With 180 seats secured, conservative and populist far-right parties, though still a minority and internally divided, will now wield considerable influence in the European Parliament. Already in power in Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands, far-right movements are gaining momentum across Europe. Despite their diverse backgrounds and ideologies, these political groups share three core beliefs:
First is a nativist, ethnic-based concept of national identity. This vision of national identity is confined to an organic bond within a homogeneous blood community.
Second is a strong culturalist notion of the nation. They view their nations as an ahistorical civilizational entity to be protected from external influences, leading to anti-immigration policies and widespread Islamophobia.
Third is a radical sovereigntism that challenges the rule of law and independent institutions. American political scientist Fareed Zakaria has dubbed these far-right regimes “illiberal democracies,” noting their disconnection between formal electoral mechanisms and the liberal values underpinning pluralistic, open democracy.
Already in power in Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands, far-right movements are gaining momentum across Europe
It is crucial to distinguish the far-right movement from the liberal conservative parties that once formed a solid component of Western democracies. These parties were characterized by skepticism toward progressivism, attachment to traditional religious values and adherence to order and authority, yet they upheld basic liberal principles (private and civil liberties, equal citizenship, separation of powers).
The rise of the far-right can be attributed to several key factors, including the new political landscape of contemporary democracies, breaking away from the binary division of right and left from the First Industrial Revolution, the erosion of the working class, the multilateralist challenge faced by European societies amid massive immigration, and reactions to globalization.
Sociologists and political scientists have explored and analyzed these phenomena, but this does not diminish the significance of the recent electoral event that has shaken EU countries. This event occurred in a volatile context, marked by the ongoing Ukraine war, intense confrontations with emerging global powers and uncertainty in Euro-American relations as Donald Trump eyes a potential return to the White House.
Some researchers view these trends as signaling the “decline” or “defeat” of the West (Michel Onfray, Emmanuel Todd) and the end of European global hegemony (Bertrand Badie). The far right, with its euroskeptic and sovereigntist stance, fails to provide credible solutions to Europe’s pressing challenges. It mirrors a genuine social and political unease, manifesting in tangible changes, yet it lacks the conceptual tools and practical mechanisms needed to address the continent’s multifaceted crisis.
French writer Paul Valery famously remarked in 1919: “We modern civilizations have learned to recognize that we are mortal like the others.” This phrase, uttered during the grim aftermath of the First World War, resonates strongly today. Europeans, who once held the status of the “conscience of humanity” and led the world, now find themselves in the modest position of “spectators of history,” as German philosopher Peter Sloterdijk put it. As Europe grapples with its diminished global role, the rise of the radical right appears more a symptom of historical regression than a path forward for the continent.
***Seyid Ould Abah is a professor of philosophy and social sciences at the University of Nouakchott, Mauritania, and a columnist in several media outlets. He is the author of several books on philosophy and political and strategic thought. X: @seyidbah