Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 13-14/2024
Saint Anthony of Padua/Saint of the Day/June 13
The real danger of Iran linking Hezbollah to Gaza/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
What Victory Will There Be On ‘The Day After/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/June 14/2024
Residents of the North are used as cannon fodder': Local leaders respond to Hezbollah's barrage/Yale Halfon, Maya Gur Arieh/Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
IDF uses medieval siege weapon to fling fireballs at Lebanon
Hezbollah targets sensitive Israeli military sites in Galilee and Golan
Emirati Al Habtoor Group drops plans for Lebanese TV channel over alleged Hezbollah threats
Following heavy Hezbollah fire, IDF finishes exercise against northern threats
France, US to push roadmap to stop Hezbollah-Israel escalation - Macron
Hezbollah launches combined attack on 9 Israeli posts, in response to Jwaya strike
Hezbollah Fires New Barrage at Israel, Which Vows to Hit Back
US Very Concerned about Escalation on Israel-Lebanon Border
Israel vows to respond 'with force' to Hezbollah 'aggressions'
Report: Israel hasn't decided to launch major strike on Hezbollah
Blinken: Gaza deal would have 'tremendous' effect lowering Israel-Lebanon tensions
Bassil wraps up presidential talks by meeting Raad
Iraqi FM warns against expanding war on Lebanon
Report: Gen. Aoun visiting Washington as US scrambles to prevent Israel-Hezbollah war
USAID celebrates achievements of its Community Support Program in Lebanon
Lebanon needs an opposition that will speak up for the entire country/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/June 13/2024
'Nasrallah realizes the IDF can kill him': Hezbollah leadership shaken after Israeli elimination of Sami Taleb Abdullah/Shaked Sadeh/Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
Hezbollah to the Lebanese Who Speak up: You’re Zionist Agents/ Yussuf ElKhoury/June 13/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 13-14/2024
Battles rage in Rafah after US says Gaza truce still possible
Israel denies hitting designated ‘safe zone’ following Palestinian news agency report
Poll shows rise in support by Palestinians for armed struggle
G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia's frozen assets. Here's how it will work
G7 summit opens with deal to use Russian assets for Ukraine as EU's traditional powers recalibrate
Israeli forces kill three Palestinians, seize weapons in West Bank raid
Iran releases French national Louis Arnaud, imprisoned for over 20 months
Iran expands nuclear capacities further: IAEA
US national security adviser says Israel stands behind cease-fire proposal
Biden will urge G7 leaders to push Hamas to back ceasefire deal - White House's Sullivan
Iranian authorities release French national Louis Arnaud, imprisoned for over 20 months
Iran expanding enrichment capacity after IAEA resolution, diplomats say
NATO defense ministers thrash out new security aid and training support plan for Ukraine
Ukraine's foreign minister welcomes US sanctions on Russia
Ukraine is finally getting to hit Russia hard with its 'wonder-weapons,' and that's turning the tide of the war: military expert
Over 20 killed by suspected Islamists in eastern Congo, local officials say
UN adopts a resolution demanding that Sudan's paramilitary force halt its siege of a Darfur city
Avoiding the Election Error in Tunisia

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on June 13-14/2024
Iran's Attempts to Attack Israel Must Be Confronted/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute./June 13, 2024
AI, analytics and the future of Saudi Arabia’s workforce/Nicholas C. Lovegrove/Arab News/June 13/2024
As Gandhi said, if it’s on the internet it must be true/Ross Anderson/Arab News/June 13/2024
Qalibaf, Jalili the likely front-runners in Iran election/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/June 13/2024
How Hamas Is Trying to Shape the “Day After” in Gaza/Ehud Yaari/The Washington Institute/Jun 13, 2024
Eid al-Ghadir: A Renewed Debate for Iraq's Shia Politicians/Waqas al-Kadi/The Washington Institute/Jun 13, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 13-14/2024
Saint Anthony of Padua/Saint of the Day/June 13
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/130659/%d8%aa%d8%b0%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d8%af%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a-13-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d9%8a/
The gospel call to leave everything and follow Christ was the rule of Saint Anthony of Padua’s life. Over and over again, God called him to something new in his plan. Every time Anthony responded with renewed zeal and self-sacrificing to serve his Lord Jesus more completely. His journey as the servant of God began as a very young man when he decided to join the Augustinians in Lisbon, giving up a future of wealth and power to be a servant of God. Later when the bodies of the first Franciscan martyrs went through the Portuguese city where he was stationed, he was again filled with an intense longing to be one of those closest to Jesus himself: those who die for the Good News. So Anthony entered the Franciscan Order and set out to preach to the Moors. But an illness prevented him from achieving that goal. He went to Italy and was stationed in a small hermitage where he spent most of his time praying, reading the Scriptures and doing menial tasks. The call of God came again at an ordination where no one was prepared to speak. The humble and obedient Anthony hesitantly accepted the task. The years of searching for Jesus in prayer, of reading sacred Scripture and of serving him in poverty, chastity, and obedience had prepared Anthony to allow the Spirit to use his talents. Anthony’s sermon was astounding to those who expected an unprepared speech and knew not the Spirit’s power to give people words. Recognized as a great man of prayer and a great Scripture and theology scholar, Anthony became the first friar to teach theology to the other friars. Soon he was called from that post to preach to the Albigensians in France, using his profound knowledge of Scripture and theology to convert and reassure those who had been misled by their denial of Christ’s divinity and of the sacraments. After he led the friars in northern Italy for three years, he made his headquarters in the city of Padua. He resumed his preaching and began writing sermon notes to help other preachers. In the spring of 1231 Anthony withdrew to a friary at Camposampiero where he had a sort of treehouse built as a hermitage. There he prayed and prepared for death. On June 13, he became very ill and asked to be taken back to Padua, where he died after receiving the last sacraments. Anthony was canonized less than a year later and named a Doctor of the Church in 1946.

The real danger of Iran linking Hezbollah to Gaza - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/130675/130675/
The era where Israel could fight in Gaza, in the West Bank, or just in Lebanon appears to be over.
Eight months of war have provided Israel with a deeper understanding of the role of Iran in creating multi-front threats against Israel. Prior to October 7, it was widely believed that the real threat in the region was Iran and that Iran’s provision of weapons to Hezbollah was the main front that Israel should concentrate on. However, October 7 showed that Hamas could trigger a regional war by attacking Israel. This means that it’s worth understanding now how Hamas continues to have its hand on the trigger. If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, for instance, there may be “quiet” in northern Israel. This means that Hamas’s actions may determine Hezbollah’s actions. Together, their actions are likely coordinated with Iran and also its other proxies such as the Houthis. Any escalation in Gaza may therefore lead to escalation in the North. This is one of the main learning curves of this conflict. Israel did not plan for this eventuality. While Israel had planned for a multi-front war, it had not envisioned the Gaza front being the main one and Hezbollah being the stand-off front, where there is tit-for-tat rocket fire and airstrikes. Although this is not a direct parallel, it’s worth considering how the current crisis has some commonalities with the First World War and the failed concepts that led Europe into a massive conflagration in 1914. Why is that similar to our region? Because Israel had a concept that envisioned Hezbollah as the main enemy and Hamas as the weaker player. As it turned out, however, it is Hamas that has dragged Israel into a long war and the Jewish state hasn’t even begun to fully face Hezbollah. Despite talk of a wider war with the Lebanese-based terrorist group, it is unlikely that a huge war will break out. However, as we all know, it’s best never to say “unlikely” because it may happen.
How is World War I applicable to today's Middle East?
The First World War began unexpectedly due to the assassination of Austrian Crown Prince Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, by the young Serbian Gavrilo Princip. The assassination caused the Austro-Hungarian Empire to declare war on Serbia, which resulted in Russia backing Serbia.
By August 1, Germany and Russia were at war. France and Russia were allies, so Berlin’s war with Moscow necessarily meant it had to fight a two-front war with France as well. Germany viewed France as the main challenge, because Russia would be slow to mobilize. Thus, Germany attacked France first, even though the entire conflict had begun because of a dispute in the Balkans. WHAT CAN we learn from this regarding the Middle East? The war that Hamas launched on October 7 has become a regional war. Israel’s plans for a multi-front conflict generally saw Hezbollah as the main challenge with more than 150,000 rockets, drones and anti-tank missiles in its arsenal. Hezbollah has showcased how dangerous it is in recent months, increasingly using precision strikes with drones to target Israel. Although anti-tank missiles have ravaged Israel’s border communities, the Jewish state has waited and has not acted against Hezbollah, to avoid escalation.
In essence, one could argue that Israel has not ended up in the situation where Germany ended up in August 1914, forced to fight the secondary enemy first in order to balance a complex two-front war. However, Israel’s decision to put off this larger conflict, to avoid a larger two-front war, has not had great results so far. Hezbollah continues to attack and the war in Gaza drags on with no clear goal or strategy.
Herein lies the danger for Israel.
With Hamas still in control of Gaza and Hezbollah able to launch rockets at Israel with near impunity, there is a danger that this will set up a new conflict in the future. This is because Iran has now tied together all the “arenas” as it aims to encircle Israel with proxy forces. If and when there is a ceasefire in Gaza, Tehran will continue to give each proxy a trigger to pull that leads to a multi-front war.
In essence, Iran has created a number of “Sarejevo 1914” events around Israel, each waiting to explode. This is why Jerusalem faces not only a trap similar to the one that precipitated the First World War, but it has no easy way to extricate itself now that Iran has successfully tied together these fronts.
The time when Israel could fight in Gaza alone, or in the West Bank alone or just in Lebanon, appears to be over. The Jewish state is now ringed with enemies like it was back in 1967. However, Israel’s leadership and its military brass do not seem to have the desire to grasp the initiative the way Israel did in 1967 and flip the situation in its favor. Instead, Israel is letting its enemies continue to coordinate and link the various frontlines together.

What Victory Will There Be On ‘The Day After’
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/June 14/2024
After the liberation of four hostages from the Nuseirat refugee camp gave him some breathing room, Netanyahu has gone back to making promises of total victory. Despite taking the lives of three hostages and the horrific massacre that killed 300 Palestinians, the operation to liberate the hostages has allowed Netanyahu to ignore the resignations of Gantz and Eizenkot. The two men left the war cabinet because there had been no vision for the "day after," which, according to Gantz, is preventing Israel from achieving victory.
More critically, Netanyahu has thwarted several attempts to conclude a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal. He wants the war to continue until after the US elections for fear that ending the war would take him out of government and into the courtroom, where he would be held accountable.
Yahya Sinwar, whose actions make him a Netanyahu's partner, has refused to acquiesce to pressure, refusing to make the compromises needed for a ceasefire agreement and the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. Sinwar believes that the longer the war goes on, the more exposed Israel becomes internationally. He has a dangerously callous view of Gazans’ lives. Indeed, he has referred to civilian casualties as "necessary sacrifices" and claimed that their deaths "will breathe life into the nation's veins," according to messages he had sent and were published by the Wall Street Journal.
Mousa Abu Marzook had previously said that Hamas is responsible for its forces and cadres, while the United Nations is responsible for the lives of civilians. His assertion absolves Hamas of any responsibility for the deaths of 37,000 people, the 13,000 others remain missing under the rubble, and injuries sustained 90,000, most of whom might not make it.
Boasting about Hezbollah's military capabilities, Naim Qassem said that: "the arms the party has used so far in the battle to support Gaza and preemptively defend Lebanon is a small sample of what it possesses. There may be even greater surprises ahead." Sheikh Naim deliberately ignores the catastrophe that his party's unilateral declaration of a "harassment" war against the enemy has created in Lebanon. He overlooks the havoc wreaked upon the South and Lebanon, declaring from over the scorched earth that: "strategic shifts favorable to the Resistance Axis are underway, and the enemy will only discover the extent of the losses it has incurred after this war ends."Netanyahu accepts nothing short of a decisive victory that sees the remaining military capabilities of Hamas crushed and culminates in the expulsion of Gazans, who are now living in the open after the Zionists’ savagery has rendered the Strip uninhabitable. Sinwar, this leader obsessed with the Battle of Karbala, is betting that prolonging the war will allow him to come out into the light and declare victory from over the rubble, becoming the leading figure of the Palestinian cause. In all of Hassan Nasrallah's speeches, he promises nothing less than "divine victory," and reassures the "opposition" within the sectarian-quote-based spoils-sharing regime that his party will not use the victory to impose its terms! The region has seen the war on Gaza, along with the wars initiated by the Iranian regime through proxies that have accompanied it, rage for nine months now. There is no imminent end in sight, and following the devastating recent attacks, there are serious fears of the conflict expanding into Lebanon. President Biden's initiative, which is indispensable, is faltering due to resistance from both Israel and Hamas. The link established between the South and Gaza will only exacerbate the suffering. It shows that the decision Hezbollah has made on behalf of Tehran's mullahs, to drag Lebanon into a destructive war, had precipitated unforeseen repercussions.
It will be impossible for Hezbollah to avoid responsibility for the deaths of 600 people, including 400 Hezbollah members and field commanders. Meanwhile, 26 Israelis have died, among them 15 soldiers. Hezbollah will find it difficult to ignore the destruction of Southern towns and the security belt that Israel has imposed. Approximately 5 million square meters of green space that had been home to olive and fruit trees have burned to the ground. The soil’s contamination by Israel’s white phosphorus bombs has made an area that is over 100 kilometers long barren.
Boasting about attacks on the infrastructure of a few settlements and the fires that have broken out as a result of these attacks will not allow Hezbollah to avoid facing its "base" and all the residents of the South. Despite the iron curtain imposed on the region, they are asking, as they stand before the rubble of what had once been their homes, what the "harassment" of Israel and "support" of Gaza have achieved. The destruction is evident, and the savage war has moved to Rafah, the last Palestinian enclave in the Strip.
The scale and brutality of the Zionist enemy's ambitions are well known, but the real threat lies in granting it pretexts. At the same time, the camps opposed to this approach are in a worryingly similar situation in Palestine and Lebanon. In Palestine, the PLO, whose ideas and initiatives have ossified, has become sterile. In Lebanon, the "opposition" within the spoils-sharing regime is a partner that shares Hezbollah’s gains, profiteering at the expense of the suffering majority. It is not capable of waging the confrontation needed to change the situation we keep hearing complaints about.
While the future of Hamas remains uncertain, Hezbollah, which is responsible for the presidential and executive vacuum, is moving forward with the alternative project that Nasrallah laid out in 1992, under the auspices of the Islamic Republic of Iran led by the Supreme Leader!

Residents of the North are used as cannon fodder': Local leaders respond to Hezbollah's barrage
Yale Halfon, Maya Gur Arieh/Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
Magen David Adom (MDA) announced that paramedics were treating two individuals who had been lightly wounded by debris, as northern Israel criticizes the government's inaction.
Following multiple rocket sirens and hostile aircraft alerts sounded in northern Israel on Thursday afternoon, local leaders responded to the barrage and lack of government response. Moshe Davidovich, head of the Mateh Asher Regional Council, said, "The North is attacked continuously and non-stop. The residents of the north are used as cannon fodder for Nasrallah's whims, and the Israeli government is falling asleep while standing."
"We demand the government present an immediate plan to maintain the security of northern residents. It was also decided that if such a plan is not presented by the beginning of July, we will take a series of steps to be announced later."
Lobby 1701, a group representing thousands of northern residents, also responded to Thursday's Hezbollah barrage, stating, "The Israeli government is endangering the settlements of northern Israel. Destruction, fires, and not a word from the government."
"The division commanders are ready, the brigades are ready, the home front is ready. And only the Israeli government and the IDF Chief of Staff are afraid to make a decision. The residents of the north are all awed by the government's abandonment, neglect, and cowardice. If Israel is burning, Lebanon should be burning. This is the only equation that should concern the government," Lobby 1701 noted in their statement. Following Hezbollah's Thursday attack, Israeli media quoted an Al Jazeera report, where a Hezbollah source reportedly said, "This is the largest and most comprehensive attack since October 8. It is intended to deter Israel and respond to the assassination of Sami Taleb Abdullah." "We fired 30 attack drones towards the outposts and launched 150 missiles. We attacked the headquarters of the northern region in the Golan, the Israeli intelligence headquarters in the region responsible for the assassinations in Lebanon, and the headquarters of the 7th Armored Brigade in the Golan," the source said. Two lightly wounded, damage to house as a result of the barrage
The military stated that the hostile aircraft intrusion alert, which had sounded in Safed at 1:31 p.m., had been a false alert. The police stated that reports of falls had been received in northern Israel; however, to date, it had not received reports of injuries.
Magen David Adom (MDA) later said that paramedics were treating two individuals in their 20s who had been lightly wounded by debris and were referred to Ziv Medical Center in Safed. The Upper Galilee Regional Council announced that as a result of Thursday's rocket barrage, a house in Birya had been hit, with damage detected to the house and agricultural areas nearby. The Safed municipality said that schools in the city had been shut down following the barrage. The Fire and Rescue Authority stated that it had received 15 reports of fires erupting in the Golan Heights and Upper Galilee areas and that firefighters were on their way to the scene. Ten teams from the Fire and Rescue Authority, KKL-JNF, and the IDF worked to extinguish an extensive forest fire in the Birya area. An additional ten teams worked to extinguish fires in the central region of the Golan Heights.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-806072

IDF uses medieval siege weapon to fling fireballs at Lebanon
Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
According to KAN News, the military issued a response statement stating, “This is a local initiative and not a tool that is widely used." A video has emerged on social media on Thursday that appears to show IDF soldiers firing a trebuchet at the Lebanese border, igniting plantations across the border.
A 'local initiative'
The military responded, stating, “This is a local initiative and not a tool that is widely used," Israeli state broadcaster KAN News reported. “The area on the Lebanese border is characterized by boulders, thickets, and dense thorn vegetation, which poses a challenge to the IDF troops deployed in defense.”
Maariv quoted the IDF as saying that the tool was built by reservists serving at an outpost on the northern border, and another military source said that the video was filmed over a month ago. A trebuchet is an artillery weapon used primarily for siege purposes. They were used primarily in the medieval period.
The incident follows recent heightened tensions in northern Israel.On Tuesday, the IDF killed Sami Taleb Abdullah, the most senior Hezbollah commander to be eliminated since October 7. On Wednesday, Hezbollah fired a heavy barrage of some 250 rockets onto Israel's North. This constituted the largest amount of rockets fired at the area since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war. In addition, this was the first time rockets were fired as far south as the area of Tiberias. Earlier on Thursday, the military stated Israel Air Force (IAF) jets had struck Hezbollah military structures in the Ayta ash Shab area and terror infrastructure in the Aynata area of southern Lebanon.Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in intensifying cross-border conflicts since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.Hezbollah has targeted northern Israel with numerous rocket and UAV barrages, which has seen the evacuation of communities near the border and the outbreak of several fires as a result of rockets and shrapnel. In retaliation, the IAF has frequently struck strategic Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including terror infrastructure and terrorists. Policy experts have predicted immense destruction should Israel and Hezbollah engage in all-out war. According to researchers at the Alma Institute, Hezbollah has 150,000 mortars, 65,000 rockets with a range of up to 80 km, 5,000 rockets, and missiles with a range of 80-200 km, 5,000 missiles with a range of 200 km or more, 2,500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - and hundreds of advanced missiles, such as anti-aircraft missiles or cruise missiles. Sam Halpern and Shaked Sadeh contributed to this report.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806054

Hezbollah targets sensitive Israeli military sites in Galilee and Golan
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/June 13, 2024
BEIRUT: Hezbollah said that it launched rockets and weaponized drones at several Israeli military sites in a coordinated attack on Thursday. An Israeli strike that killed a senior Hezbollah field commander led to the retaliatory attacks, according to Hezbollah. Israeli media outlets said that Hezbollah fired “150 rockets in half an hour,” adding that “over 30 drones were launched toward the Galilee and the Golan.”Sirens sounded for hours in Israeli settlements, including Safad, Baram, Avivim, Yir’on, and Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings, as well as the surroundings of Meron. Black smoke covered the targeted Israeli region, as seen in footage shared by Israeli activists on social media. Hezbollah vowed on Wednesday to avenge the killing of Taleb Sami Abdallah, known as “Abu Taleb,” a senior Hezbollah field commander who was killed in an Israeli raid along with three other field commanders last Tuesday.
The victims were about to hold a security meeting in a residential building in the Lebanese southern village of Jouaiyya when the raid took place. The Israeli army radio described Thursday’s attack as “the largest daily attack since the outset of the confrontations last October,” adding that “215 rocket-propelled grenades were launched.”Israeli media outlets said that “fire erupted in 15 locations in the Golan and the Galilee due to the rocket salvo.”The Israeli army media outlets reported “direct damage to a building in the Yiron Kibbutz in the Galilee.”The media added that 50 missiles were fired from Lebanon toward Katzrin in southern Golan and its surroundings, resulting in several casualties.The Magen David Adom rescue service said that “two people were injured in Katzrin due to the heavy shelling.”According to Hezbollah’s statements, and as reported by the Israeli Kan 11 TV channel, the rocket attack carried out by the group on Wednesday caused “fires in many areas in northern Israel,” adding that “25 fire brigades worked with further assistance on preventing the expansion of fires.”Israeli police reported on Thursday that “explosives experts are dealing with sites where rockets fell in the Golan and Upper Galilee.”
Hezbollah announced that six Israeli barracks and military sites were targeted in a joint attack using rockets and drones. The sites targeted with Katyusha and Falaq rockets were the Al-Zaoura barracks, Kaila barracks, Yoav barracks, Katsavia base, Nafah base, and the Sahel Battalion in Beit Hillel. Simultaneously, the group launched an aerial attack with several assault drones on the David base (headquarters of the northern region command), Mishar base (headquarters of the central intelligence unit of the north of region charged with assassination missions), and Katsavia barracks (headquarters of the 7th Armored Brigade of the Golan Division 210), hitting their targets.
Earlier in the morning, Hezbollah announced “targeting the Al-Raheb site with heavy machine guns and artillery shells, hitting it directly.”On the other hand, Israeli artillery and warplanes launched airstrikes on Lebanese border towns, from which Israel believes Hezbollah rockets were launched. They hit the outskirts of Marjayoun toward ​​Dibbine, Jabal Al-Rihane, and the outskirts of the town of Shebaa, and buildings in Aita Al-Shaab, which (Israel) claimed were “military (buildings) belonging to Hezbollah.” Israeli warplanes also raided the northern outskirts of the town of Jdeidet Marjayoun, Aainata, the area between Aitaroun and Bint Jbeil, and the outskirts of the town of Haris. Israeli attacks — using internationally banned phosphorus bombs — targeted the outskirts of the town of Deir Siriane for the first time since the confrontations began, as well as the town of Yohmor Al-Shaqif. The Israeli attacks caused fires to break out in the forests on the outskirts of Jdeidet Marjayoun. Teams from the Lebanese Red Cross, the Islamic Health Authority affiliated with Hezbollah, and Lebanese Civil Defense vehicles, rushed to extinguish the fires in cooperation with townspeople. There were no casualties. Reports from the town of Rmeish reported fire spreading into Khallet Al-Wahle, and the municipality appealed to UNIFIL to intervene. This is the second time that the town of Jdeidet Marjayoun has been targeted since hostilities began in the border area 250 days ago. It was previously targeted by a raid on a center of the Amal movement in the town’s center several months ago, resulting in the deaths of three of its members.Recently, both Hezbollah and the Israeli army have used fire as a hostile tactic. The Israeli military uses incendiary shells, including phosphorus, to bomb Lebanese towns and forests. At the same time, Hezbollah recently burned “about 3,500 dunams of the Berea and Meron forests alone,” according to the Israeli media.Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier over the eastern sector, reaching the Jezzine area at a low altitude. Hezbollah’s confrontations with Israel since Oct. 8, 2023, in support of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation conducted by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, have resulted in the deaths of 467 people in Lebanon.

Emirati Al Habtoor Group drops plans for Lebanese TV channel over alleged Hezbollah threats
Reuters/June 13/2024
In 2018, Khalaf Al Habtoor said the Americans, Israelis and Europeans could "dismantle the threat of Hezbollah and rescue the Lebanese", according to the Al Habtoor Group website. A wealthy Emirati businessman has scrapped plans to launch a new television channel in Lebanon, with his company alleging he and his staff had faced physical threats. Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor's Dubai-based Al Habtoor Group conglomerate announced on Tuesday it had cancelled the launch of the television channel, which aimed to initially broadcast cultural, social and sporting programs.Al Habtoor Group cited "severe security challenges", including what it called physical threats against its founder and chairman, Khalaf Al Habtoor, and staff members. It said it had lodged criminal and civil complaints in Lebanon and elsewhere against those it said had menaced the Group and staff. "Following the project announcement, the group encountered a barrage of orchestrated campaigns including accusations, slander, and threats," Al Habtoor Group said in a statement. It did not identify who it believed had been implicated in the "orchestrated campaigns." The company thanked Lebanese Minister of Information Ziad Makary for his support. "We have encountered insurmountable obstacles that exceed what can reasonably be borne regarding the safety and security of our team," Khalaf Al Habtoor said. "We find ourselves compelled to seek an alternative to launching the project from Lebanon," he said, citing a lack of necessary security and stability to proceed with the launch. Makary told Reuters he regretted Al Habtoor's decision. Asked about allegations of threats against Al Habtoor and his staff, Makary said: "We were prepared even if there were any threats to address them."
What is the Al Habtoor Group?
Al Habtoor Group's business interests span construction, real estate, and hospitality in the Middle East, Europe and the United States. The Group has two Hilton hotels in Lebanon. Khalaf Al Habtoor, a prominent Dubai businessman, has in the past been critical of Lebanon's Hezbollah, the heavily armed, Shi'ite Muslim terrorist group backed by Iran. Hezbollah has been declared a terrorist group by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states and the United States. The Sunni Muslim-ruled Gulf states, including the UAE, were once major investors in Lebanon but now largely shun it over Hezbollah, whose political party also sits in the parliament. In 2018, Khalaf Al Habtoor said the Americans, Israelis and Europeans could "dismantle the threat of Hezbollah and rescue the Lebanese", according to the Al Habtoor Group website. He told a conference at the time: "The Lebanese are prisoners in their country. Members of Hezbollah are forming the government in Lebanon, I cannot understand it. We should not accept this.”

Following heavy Hezbollah fire, IDF finishes exercise against northern threats
Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
The IDF's exercise simulated various combat scenarios while emphasizing movements and capabilities in complex terrain, using multi-scale fire and complex combat scenarios. A series of brigade exercises were carried out in northern Israel over the past two weeks, where troops were trained for different combat patterns and scenarios, the IDF announced on Thursday. Soldiers from the Fourth Divisional Combat team trained in northern Israel following an extensive period of combat in the Gaza Strip. Additionally, soldiers of the 226th Divisional Combat Team arrived for training after completing defensive activities on the northern border. Training in complex terrain and situations . The IDF's exercise simulated various combat scenarios while emphasizing movements and capabilities in forested and ecologically dense areas, movements along mountainous routes, and the use of multi-scale fire and combat in different areas, the IDF noted. Soldiers were also trained in-depth in logistical and IT aspects, simulating the evacuation of the wounded from the battlefield and communicating with IDF headquarters.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-806107

France, US to push roadmap to stop Hezbollah-Israel escalation - Macron
Reuters/BORGO EGNAZIA, Italy/June 13, 2024
Italy hosts G7 summit in Puglia
The United States, France and Israel have agreed to work together to step up efforts to push forward a roadmap presented by Paris earlier this year to defuse tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday.
France and the United States have in recent months worked to try to defuse tensions with Paris submitting written proposals to both sides aimed at stopping worsening exchanges between them on the border between Lebanon and Israel.
"With the United States we agreed on the principle of a trilateral (contact group), Israel, the United States and France to advance on the roadmap that we proposed and we will do the same with the Lebanese authorities," Macron told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Italy. Hezbollah, which has ruled out ending hostilities until there is a ceasefire between Israel and Islamist militant group Hamas in Gaza, said it had launched rockets and weaponised drones at nine Israeli military sites in a coordinated attack on Thursday, ramping up hostilities on Lebanon's southern border for the second consecutive day. A senior French official said there was an urgency for the United States and France to step up their efforts given the dangerous escalation.

Hezbollah launches combined attack on 9 Israeli posts, in response to Jwaya strike
Associated Press/June 13, 2024
Hezbollah launched rocket and drone attacks on several Israeli army bases and positions on Thursday, after an Israeli strike killed one of its senior commanders. Hezbollah fighters launched "an attack with rockets and drones, targeting six barracks and military sites" while simultaneously flying "squadrons of explosive-laden drones" at three other Israeli bases, the group said in a statement. It said the attacks were "part of the response to the assassination" of Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdallah on Tuesday. Earlier on Thursday, Hezbollah targeted the al-Raheb post in north Israel, while Israeli warplanes struck the outskirts of Jdeidet Marjeyoun and Haris. “Our response after the martyrdom of Abu Taleb will be to intensify our operations in severity, strength, quantity and quality,” senior Hezbollah official Hashem Saffieddine said during a funeral ceremony for Taleb Sami Abdullah who was killed in an airstrike late Tuesday. On Wednesday, Hezbollah fired a massive barrage of rockets into northern Israel in retaliation for Abdullah’s killing, further escalating tensions. Hezbollah has traded fire with Israel nearly every day since the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7, and says it will only stop if there is a truce in Gaza. That has raised fears of a regional conflagration. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon since October have killed over 400 people, most of them Hezbollah fighters, but the dead also include more than 70 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 15 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed since the war in Gaza began.

Hezbollah Fires New Barrage at Israel, Which Vows to Hit Back
Asharq Al Awsat/June 14/2024
Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group said it fired a new wave of rockets and drones at the Israeli army on Thursday, after an Israeli strike killed one of its senior commanders, AFP reported.It was Hezbollah’s largest simultaneous attack in near-daily cross-border fire between it and the Israeli army since its ally Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel triggered the Gaza war. Hezbollah fighters launched “an attack with rockets and drones, targeting six barracks and military sites” while simultaneously flying “squadrons of explosive-laden drones” at three other Israeli bases, the group said in a statement.
One of the targets included an Israeli base that Hezbollah said housed an intelligence headquarters “responsible for the assassinations.”Hezbollah said the attacks were “part of the response to the assassination” of Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdallah on Tuesday. The Israeli army said about “40 projectiles were launched toward the Galilee and Golan Heights area,” adding most were intercepted while others ignited fires. The Israeli government vowed to respond strongly to all Hezbollah attacks. “Israel will respond with force to all aggressions by Hezbollah,” government spokesman David Mencer said during a press briefing. “Whether through diplomatic efforts or otherwise, Israel will restore security on our northern border,” he added. In recent weeks, cross-border exchanges have escalated, with Hezbollah stepping up its use of drones to attack Israeli military positions and Israel hitting back with targeted strikes against the militants. On Wednesday, top Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine vowed the group would “increase the intensity, strength, quantity and quality of our attacks,” while speaking at Abdallah’s funeral. The Israeli army confirmed it carried out the strike that “eliminated” Abdallah on Tuesday, describing him as “one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders in southern Lebanon.”A Lebanese military source said he was the “most important” Hezbollah commander to have been killed since the start of the war. The cross-border violence has killed at least 468 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including 89 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Israeli authorities say at least 15 Israeli soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed.

US Very Concerned about Escalation on Israel-Lebanon Border
Asharq Al Awsat/June 14/2024
The United States is very concerned that hostilities on the Israel-Lebanon border could escalate to a full-out war, a senior US official said, saying that specific security arrangements are needed for the area and a ceasefire in Gaza is not enough.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire since the eruption of the Gaza war in October in steadily intensifying attacks that have fueled concern of a bigger confrontation, Reuters reported. "We have had consistent and urgent conversations at different times with Israel and Lebanon over the eight months, from the very beginning of this crisis ... to keep this from developing into a full-out war that could have implications to beyond elsewhere in the region," the official said. "Returning to the status quo to Oct. 6 in Lebanon is not an acceptable or viable option."On Wednesday, Hezbollah fired the most rockets it has launched at Israel in a single day since cross-border hostilities broke out eight months ago, as part of its retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed a senior Hezbollah field commander. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Doha on Wednesday that the best way to empower a diplomatic solution in the north of Israel is a resolution of the conflict in Gaza in the south. "That will take a tremendous amount of pressure out of the system," he said. "It will take away a justification that Hezbollah has claimed for the attacks its engaged in, and I think open a pathway to actually resolve this diplomatically."However, the US official said more will be needed. "It is not enough to just have a ceasefire...there has to be an agreement that allows Israelis to return to their homes in the north," the official said.

Israel vows to respond 'with force' to Hezbollah 'aggressions'
Agence France Presse/June 13, 2024
Israel vowed to respond forcefully to all Hezbollah attacks after the group fired a barrage of rockets and drones across the border for the second successive day on Thursday.
"Israel will respond with force to all aggressions by Hezbollah," Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said during a press briefing, adding that "whether through diplomatic efforts or otherwise, Israel will restore security on our northern border."

Report: Israel hasn't decided to launch major strike on Hezbollah
Naharnet/June 13, 2024 
Israeli army officials have told Israeli newspaper Haaretz that the Israeli government “has not decided yet whether to launch an extensive military strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon.”Israel will however “continue to carry out targeted killings and strikes on the group's senior commanders and central compounds,” the officials added. The statement comes after Israel assassinated senior Hezbollah military commander Taleb Abdallah, prompting the group to retaliate by firing around 200 rockets at key bases in north Israel -- the biggest number of projectiles fired in a single day since the start of the conflict.

Blinken: Gaza deal would have 'tremendous' effect lowering Israel-Lebanon tensions
Agence France Presse/June 13, 2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has renewed calls for a diplomatic solution between Israel and Lebanon and said a Gaza ceasefire deal would have a major effect lowering tensions. "What I've heard from everyone concerned," Blinken told reporters in Doha Wednesday, "is there's a strong preference for a diplomatic solution.""There's no doubt in my mind that the best way also to empower a diplomatic solution to the north -- in Lebanon -- is a resolution of the conflict in Gaza and getting a ceasefire," he said. "That will take a tremendous amount of pressure out of the system," Blinken said. Blinken's remarks came at the end of a regional tour during which he met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has talked tough against Lebanon's Hezbollah. The Iranian-backed militants on Wednesday fired barrages of rockets on northern Israel after an Israeli strike killed a senior commander. Blinken said any resolution needed to ensure people can return to their homes in both northern Israel and southern Lebanon. The U.S. secretary of state was touring the region to push forward a ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hamas laid out by President Joe Biden. Hamas late Tuesday responded with proposed amendments, which Blinken said the United States would seek to bridge.

Bassil wraps up presidential talks by meeting Raad
Naharnet/June 13, 2024
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday wrapped up his presidential consultative tour by meeting with the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad. An FPM statement said the two men “discussed the stances of the parties on the call for consultations on the basis of agreeing on a presidential candidate or going to a presidential election.”Bassil is scheduled to hold a press conference later in the day to announce the outcome of his meetings.

Iraqi FM warns against expanding war on Lebanon
Naharnet/June 13, 2024 
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein on Thursday warned against any major Israeli attack on south Lebanon. “I discussed with my Iranian counterpart the dangerous signals about the possibility of an attack on south Lebanon and the expansion of the war’s geography,” Hussein said after meeting acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. “This would affect the entire region and expanding the war is not only dangerous for Lebanon but rather for the whole region,” Hussein added. The Iranian minister similarly called for "putting an end as quickly as possible, and without preconditions," to "war crimes" and "genocide" in the Gaza Strip. He said Israel, in response to their "failure" in Gaza, "may seek to commit further wrongs and broaden the scope of their aggression", but Iran would not allow anyone "to harm stability and regional security, even if only a little."
The statements come after Israel assassinated senior Hezbollah military commander Taleb Abdallah, prompting the group to retaliate by firing around 200 rockets at key bases in north Israel -- the biggest number of projectiles fired in a single day since the start of the conflict.

Report: Gen. Aoun visiting Washington as US scrambles to prevent Israel-Hezbollah war
Naharnet/June 13, 2024
The Biden administration has grown “extremely concerned” that escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah in recent days might deteriorate into an all-out war and is scrambling to prevent it, U.S. news portal Axios quoted U.S. officials as saying. “The U.S. is concerned about Israel rushing into a war with Hezbollah — or getting dragged into one — without a clear strategy or consideration of the full implications of a wider conflict,” the officials said. “The Biden administration is trying to contain the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah as much as possible while working to secure a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza,” the officials added. The White House believes that a ceasefire in Gaza is the only thing that would significantly de-escalate the tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border. According to Axios, Lebanese Army chief General Joseph Aoun is visiting Washington this week for meetings with White House and Pentagon officials and members of Congress about the current crisis. While traveling with U.S. President Joe Biden to the G7 summit in Italy on Wednesday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One that the U.S. "is particularly concerned" about the exchange of fire across the border with Lebanon. Sullivan also stressed that the U.S. is in close consultation with Israel on this issue.

USAID celebrates achievements of its Community Support Program in Lebanon
Naharnet/June 13, 2024
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) celebrated Thursday at Notre Dame University-Louaize the impact of its Community Support Program (CSP), which has provided local development assistance to more than 746,000 people across 180 communities in Lebanon over six years (2018-2024)."This support comes as local municipalities and communities are bearing a particularly heavy toll in trying to provide much-needed public services like water and household electricity against the backdrop of Lebanon’s deepening economic crisis," USAID said in a statement. The ceremony celebrates the culmination of more than 102 community projects worth more than $13.8 million in USAID funding to improve livelihoods in underserved communities. The completion ceremony was attended by USAID Lebanon Local Development Office Director Mark Wilt, the Acting Director General of Local Authorities and Municipalities at the Ministry of Interior Faten Abou El Hassan, governors, and other local entities. Over six years, USAID has made investments in solar to power water systems, electricity, and street lights, providing a reliable supply of services to entire villages; investments in recycling to combat Lebanon’s decades-old waste management issues; and supporting agricultural cooperatives with rehabilitated space and new equipment; and much more, the statement said. In his remarks, the USAID Lebanon Local Development Office Director stated “The United States and Lebanon share the vision that quality essential services like clean water, livelihood support, solid waste management, back-up electricity, education, and health are critical to a country’s economic stability and security. The efforts by USAID and our local partners have laid a strong foundation for more than 746,000 people who have so far benefited from improved public services. This is equivalent to more than 12% of the population in Lebanon. These results are a cause for hope and celebration, particularly as Lebanese municipalities and communities have faced harsh realities in recent years.”In response to diesel fuel shortages and decreased reliability of state-provided electricity, CSP assisted 23 communities with solar-powered solutions to ensure sustainable access to water, household electricity, and street lighting. These projects combined to generate 2.74 megawatts in renewable energy for more than 435,000 residents. CSP assisted another 27 communities with water, wastewater, and irrigation network upgrades, while CSP’s investments in recyclables waste management provided improved waste management services for 360,000 residents across 60 communities.
Other notable achievements include workspace rehabilitation and equipment provision for nine agricultural cooperatives and more than 2,288 cash-for-work opportunities that included emergency response rubble removal following the 2020 Beirut port blast and forest clearing following wildfires. With a focus on inclusion, CSP also worked with local NGOs and the private sector to place 135 people with disabilities in part-time jobs, 12 of whom transitioned to full-time employment. CSP also partnered with 11 Lebanese universities on an internship program to help youth overcome barriers to employment. So far, 256 students and recent graduates have completed their internships and 96 have found permanent jobs. To ensure the sustainability of its local development projects, CSP trained more than 3,700 community members and strengthened the capacities of 128 local partners on the safe operation and maintenance of provided equipment and on institutional capacity building aspects. CSP also implemented a range of community-led awareness campaigns on water conservation and sorting recyclables at source, reaching more than 31,000 people. CSP also trained partner municipalities on developing proposals for donor funding and diaspora support, which resulted in raising more than $350,000 in community, private sector, and international donor contributions to support public services. USAID’s Community Support Program (CSP) is a $100 million seven-year activity (2018-2025) designed to improve the delivery of essential services and enhance economic opportunities to improve lives primarily in Lebanon’s North, South, and Beqaa Valley regions. By June 2024, CSP enhanced the provision of essential services for more than 746,000 residents in more than 180 communities.

Lebanon needs an opposition that will speak up for the entire country
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/June 13/2024
Does Lebanon need a president? Let me reformulate, what can an elected Lebanese president achieve when the country is controlled by Hezbollah? And for that matter, what can a prime minister, a member of parliament or any public official do? Lebanon is stuck between the south being burned to the ground and instability in Syria from the north, with a sprinkle of a political vacuum. Surprisingly or not, the last of these is the least of Lebanon’s problems, as life can go on without the politicians. At least for now, no sovereign voice is covering up or tacitly endorsing Hezbollah’s policies in front of the Lebanese or the international community. So I ask, why give Hezbollah this endorsement and firewall protection once again? What will the Lebanese gain from it? This is why, on the current debate in Lebanon, I agree with Samir Geagea’s stance regarding the election of a president, which states that there is no need for consultations. There is a parliament, let it play its role, quorum after quorum, until a president is elected. At least, in this manner, we will see who the ruling force is and who the opposition is. Any other solution gives a full political guarantee to Hezbollah to do whatever pleases the militia and its patrons in Tehran, while blaming any ills on the Lebanese state. This is also why, today, Walid Jumblatt should not take a centrist, weakened position but join forces in an opposition front and not be part of another cover-up of Hezbollah’s role and status. Consensus and the “no winner, no loser” formula have brought devastating results in the country. Consensus is what permitted the cover-up of the Lebanese banking system’s Ponzi scheme or, as the Egyptian saying goes, “Shayyelni w’ ashayyelak,” which translates to “you load (stuff) on me, I load (stuff) on you,” or “you scratch my back and I scratch yours.” Today, for non-Arabic speakers, this saying is often used to denote corruption and backroom deals. It is the definition of the Lebanese political scene. Moreover, the formula has brought a unique winner and that is Hezbollah. The other communities have lost and these “consultations” are nothing but a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. Even if not much can be done, the lines between the opposition and the ruling party cannot stay blurred any longer.
Opposition to Hezbollah — no matter how weak, even if it cannot do anything, even if it is nothing but a whisper — is a necessity. Western powers should put more effort into letting an opposition live, rather than pushing for a president that will yield to Hezbollah’s wishes. Even if not much can be done, the lines between the opposition and the ruling party cannot stay blurred any longer. This is the least that can be done. Lebanon needs a real opposition force. Even if it cannot stop Hezbollah from moving forward, it can voice its disagreement. Finally, a real opposition would also offer a much-needed message to France and the US that, through their current initiatives and their choice of support packages, they bear responsibility for pushing solutions that give Hezbollah even more power and control. This comes with risks if pushed too far, yet this is a sad situation for any free voice in Lebanon.
Lebanon needs consultations, but not between members of parliament to choose a president of consensus. It needs consultations with the people of the country. Real town hall meetings, in which alternatives to the current political system are discussed. Lawyers, business owners, workers and mothers need to be included and this should be a roadmap for a new Lebanon. One might, rightly, ask what is the point when Hezbollah controls everything and silences any opposition? I believe in setting a goal or planning for a better future even in the worst of times. We cannot and should not give in to total despair and abandonment.
We have indeed noticed a larger part of the population starting to recognize that Hezbollah is only a symptom and the real issue is the national pact and constitution that keeps the country in a vicious circle. One short decade, the 1960s, made Lebanon shine economically, culturally and financially, but this is no longer enough to keep this system going. Even with its nostalgia. And let us be honest, this great period was a time when, against all other political ideologies, the promotion of capitalism and personal freedom made the Lebanese successful. Lebanon needs a united opposition bloc that does not stay silent as a militia takes over the decisions of peace and war. Unfortunately, the structural base was flawed and so it was short-lived. Since then, under the mirage of libertarianism, the real force in Lebanon has been led by leftist militantism mixed with religion and Hezbollah is the final boss in this game. I am surprised that today, even on the constitution, progressive forces do not request a change and have accepted a constitution set up by what they usually call “colonizing and invading powers.” In all fairness, their proposed solution is just as dangerous and serves Hezbollah, as they see the sectarian divide being replaced with a centralized power that rips every community of its identity and forces them into uniform thoughts and beliefs.
Lebanon needs a united opposition bloc that does not stay silent as a militia takes over the decisions of peace and war. Opposition forces cannot hit each other or be accomplices in these actions or be the scapegoats. Someone needs to ask, in parliament, for an evaluation of Hezbollah’s actions. What has Hezbollah done since Israel unilaterally withdrew from Lebanon? What territories has it protected or gained? Moreover, what unnecessary destruction has it brought upon the country?If we look at the south today, we see Hezbollah serving its transnational ideology and ensuring destruction in Lebanon. The southerners, across religious groups, are caught between a rock and a hard place and are left with no hope. A real opposition would speak up for them and the entire country.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

'Nasrallah realizes the IDF can kill him': Hezbollah leadership shaken after Israeli elimination of Sami Taleb Abdullah
Shaked Sadeh/Jerusalem Post/June 13/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/130662/130662/
"The powerful elimination worries Hezbollah members. They now understand that the IDF knows much more about them than they know about us," says Professor Amatzia Baram.
Approximately 250 rockets were launched on Wednesday towards northern Israel, disrupting the holiday calm with successive alerts. Rockets that exploded in open areas caused fires. In the city of Tiberias, a siren was activated for the first time since October.
These launches come after the assassination of senior Hezbollah official Sami Taleb Abdullah, whose rank was equivalent to a brigadier general in the IDF.
For the past 20 years, Abdullah had led rocket fire toward Kiryat Shmona, the Galilee panhandle, and the Golan Heights. He is the highest-ranking Hezbollah commander to have been killed so far in the war. Abdullah was also active during the Second Lebanon War, serving as a brigade commander and developing rockets in the region.  Yesterday, following attacks on Kfar Blum and after recent intelligence gathering on him, the IDF precisely assassinated Taleb using a fighter jet. The operation was led by the Northern Command chief in collaboration with the Intelligence Directorate and the Air Force
"The powerful elimination worries Hezbollah members. They now understand that the IDF knows much more about them than we do. Additionally, the operation indicates that Hezbollah's field security is not airtight and that the organization's intelligence system has been penetrated to such an extent that we were able to eliminate such an important sector commander. The IDF managed to infiltrate their networks and systems and identify the right people for elimination," says Professor Amatzia Baram, suggesting that this also impacts the leader of the terrorist organization.
Hezbollah leadership worried
He further added, "[Hezbollah Secretary-general Hassan] Nasrallah realizes that the IDF has the ability to kill him whenever it wants, and I believe this worries him quite a bit. Contrary to popular belief, Nasrallah is not a suicidal Shiite yearning for death (martyrdom). He understands that he would be next in line to die if a full-scale war breaks out. This poses a significant danger for him. Additionally, the elimination is a significant success in the psychological warfare against the terrorist organization, as it leads to great concern among the commanders, who know they could be next."
The professor also referred to the possible responses from the terrorist organization following the significant assassination.
"The last time we eliminated senior Hezbollah commanders, the terrorist organization increased the amount of fire as a 'punishment' and fired more rockets and missiles at Israel,” he said. “However, they did not cross the unspoken red lines set in the limited war."
"Now, Hezbollah might increase the scope of fire, but in my opinion, they will not significantly extend the range. The important point is the type of targets they attempt to hit. So far, the terrorist organization has not tried to hit a large civilian target, but rather only a few military targets, which is the critical line that separates provoking Israel from starting a full-scale war. In my opinion, Hezbollah is ready for a large-scale war but does not want it and, therefore, will not try to attack civilian targets," Baram added.
"From their perspective, starting a war would be a big mistake, as then the US would have legitimacy to join the fight. They still remember Biden's statement that if Hezbollah initiates a full-scale war against Israel, the US would join the war against them, which the terrorist organization and the Iranians fear. On the other hand, if Israel started the war, the Americans would not be obligated to join the fighting. There are constant talks between Tehran and Beirut, with the Iranians urging Nasrallah to escalate only in a limited manner, targeting military objectives only and not civilians, and not to focus fire on cities with civilian populations," the professor explained. "Yesterday, Hezbollah directed a drone towards Haifa. In a different scenario, where the terrorist organization aimed 100 warheads at the city, the effect would be different, and Israel would have the legitimacy to start a full-scale war," Baram continued. "Israel might want Hezbollah to cross the red line, but the terrorist organization will not do so.""The current limited escalation does not justify Israel starting a full-scale war, and the crucial question is if Hezbollah might take an action that would leave the Americans no choice but to join the war against them, according to Biden's commitment,” Baram stated. “Even after the powerful elimination, Hezbollah has not changed its view that the war of attrition in the North should continue along the same unspoken red lines.”

Hezbollah to the Lebanese Who Speak up: You’re Zionist Agents
Hanibaal Atheos/Regardless of the Zionist criminality against Palestine south of the border, the Lebanese people are victims of the Hezbollah agents of the Iranian dictatorship and the Syrian butcher in Damascus. Below my translation of a piece written by Yussuf ElKhoury.
Original title: إمّا نصمت وإمّا نحن عملاء!!؟
With the growing violence in south Lebanon, the Israelis are threatening to launch an operation aiming at placing the Upper Galilee out of reach of the rockets and missiles of the so-called “resistance”. They are even speaking of a land invasion to destroy the military and political infrastructure of the “resistance”. Meanwhile, the Americans fear the expansion of any Israeli war against Lebanon into a broader regional war. Their envoy [Amos Hochstein] is seeking to revive the existing ceasefire, in place for some time, between the two sides under the supervision of UNIFIL [United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon].
The “resistance” is betting on the resentment within the officers’ rank of the Israeli army, and actually believes that this army is on its way to disintegration. Demonstrations against the Zionist government and statements by the Israeli Leftist opposition raise the morale and determination of the “resistance”.
Indeed, the Israelis are caught between, on one hand, the hammer of the Americans who call for complete self-restraint, and the hard place of Israel’s northern settlers demanding a safe return to their settlements which can only be achieved by the “destruction of the terrorist infrastructure” in the Lebanese south. US diplomacy keeps “warning against crossing a red line”, while the Israeli government has a different calculus when it comes to the existential dangers facing its people. Didn’t the chief of the Israeli government reply to the Americans by saying, “We will not be witness to the killing of our people by a blood-thirsty enemy”?
My dear reader,
Take a deep breath and focus with me:
The events related above are not new to you, but you don’t know that I extracted them from various books and sources that address the reasons behind the Israeli invasion of 1982. These events are similar, indeed identical, to the developments in south Lebanon since the beginning of the Gaza war last October 7. All you have to do is replace the word “resistance” above with “Palestine Liberation Organization”, and you will conclude that the conditions leading up to the 1982 invasion of Lebanon on account of the actions by the Palestinians and their treasonous Lebanese allies, are the same conditions prevailing today on account of the fundamentalist Sunni “Hamas” and Shiite “Hezbollah” who are giving Israel the pretext to invade Lebanon once again.
If we look closely at the events in 1981 and 1982, we find that the critical factors in the decision to invade Lebanon (Operation Peace in Galilee) are as follows:
- A rise in the number of Israelis killed by the Palestinian Fedayeen (1396 between 1965 and 1982);
- The displacement of the residents of the Upper Galilee by the PLO’s shelling of their regions;
- The failure of the Israeli strikes in curbing the Palestinian attacks; and
- The growing arsenal of the Palestinians in south Lebanon, thanks to a wide Arab support and generosity, particularly Syria and Libya.
I wish to emphasize here that what precipitated the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon was the Palestinians and their Lebanese minions who never stopped attacking us, the Lebanese Christians, as allies of Israel during that period. But these imbecile slanderers of Lebanon’s Christians will be disappointed when they examine the objectives of the “Peace in Galilee” operation and place them in their correct context, without the imagined intentions they attribute to them.
As stated by the Israeli government, the objectives of the Peace in Galilee operation were:
- Remove the terrorist threat (of the Palestinians and their Lebanese allies) by eliminating their military capabilities and infrastructure;
- Maintain neutrality vis-à-vis the Syrian forces present on Lebanese soil;
- No engagement with the Shiites, the Druze and the Christians during the operation. On the military daily order of June 6, the term “non-armed Muslims” was added to this list;
- Withdraw from Lebanon when objectives are achieved. Israel has no interest in staying in Lebanon;
- The operation does not aim at securing the sovereignty of the Lebanese government over its territory. This is a matter that concerns only the Lebanese;
- Make contact with the Christian sector in order to isolate Beirut and cut off the Damascus Road.
Thus, Israel planned to eliminate the Palestinian mini-state in Lebanon without entering in conflict with the Lebanese state or with any of the non-hostile Lebanese communities. Israel wanted to benefit from its alliance with the Christians by making contact with their sector for the sole purpose of encircling the Palestinians in West Beirut. It had no intention of staying or interfering in Lebanese internal affairs after securing its objectives.
Five months prior to the Peace in Galilee operation, Israel’s Defense Minister Ariel Sharon notified the Christians of the possibility of a wide-scale invasion if the efforts of the Americans to achieve a comprehensive ceasefire with the PLO fail. Bashir Gemayel asked Sharon, “What do you expect from us in case of war?”, to which Sharon replied, “Nothing. Protect your own positions. And know that we will not be able to protect you if your forces fail.” Then Sharon elaborated by asking the Christians to “strengthen their relations with the Shiites and the Druze” and suggested “giving the Shiites some of the weapons that Israel was providing the Christians” since the Shiites too were suffering from the PLO.
The Christians were aware of the possibility of an invasion, but they did not know any of its details, particularly its timing. How could they know when Sharon himself did not know? Sharon had left Israel with his family to Bucharest in early June 1982 for both a vacation and an official visit. He returned to Israel on the morning of June 5, and the decision to invade Lebanon on June 6 was taken mere hours before it began.
As for the Lebanese presidency that the deceitful traitors persist in saying that President Bashir Gemayel extracted it from atop an Israeli tank, the Israelis mentioned it only in passing when then-prime minister Menahem Begin said that “he will be happy if the Lebanese parliament elects a president from the Lebanese Forces”, without any specific mention of Bashir. The Israelis did not discuss with Bashir the matter of peace until early September 1982 at the notorious Nahariya meeting, and only after evicting the armed Palestinians and the Syrians from Beirut, destroying the Syrian army’s war machine in Lebanon, and electing Bashir as president. Yet, Bashir did not give them any promise on that day. To the contrary, he put down his own conditions which the Israelis accepted two days before his assassination. This conduct does not make Bashir an agent who arrived on an enemy tank; it suggests he was a decision-maker in the regional crisis of the time.
Was Bashir Gemayel an agent because he did not retaliate against the shelling of Ashrafiyeh by the Palestinians who were besieged by Israel in West Beirut. Was Bashir an agent when he declared that “we will not fire a single shot against our brethren (the Muslims) in West Beirut who have become hostages in the hands of the Palestinians?
Are the Christians of Lebanon agents because their interests converged with those of the Israelis in ridding Lebanon of the PLO that had slaughtered the Christians because they were Christians? Are the Christians of Lebanon agents because you, traitor lowlifes, conspired with the PLO to dismantle the Lebanese formula of coexistence?
If accusing us of being agents lifts your standing and makes you happy, then by all means enjoy it while it lasts. But you will not succeed because everyone knows that you are filthy lowlifes. Your constant harping about our relation with Israel is only a pathetic tool with which you aim to silence us, [just as Zionists use the accusation of “antisemitism” to silence their detractors], and to cover up your disastrous crimes of destruction, displacement and killings going on in the south of the country.
Please take note: We will not remain silent over your deeds. We shall continue to expose you. We shall not be deterred, and we will not let you succeed.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 13-14/2024
Battles rage in Rafah after US says Gaza truce still possible
AFP/June 13, 2024
GAZA: Israeli helicopters struck Gaza’s Rafah Thursday, residents said, with Hamas militants reporting street battles in the southern city after top US diplomat Antony Blinken said a truce was still possible. But the war raged on, and tensions soared on Israel’s northern border with more attacks by Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah forces targeting military positions. Israel, which has traded near-daily fire with Hamas ally Hezbollah since the start of the Gaza war, said it would respond “with force.”Israeli ground forces have been operating in Rafah since early May, despite widespread alarm over the fate of Palestinian civilians there, including in a ruling by the International Court of Justice later that month. Western areas of Rafah came under heavy fire on Thursday from the air, sea and land, residents said. “There was very intense fire from warplanes, Apaches (helicopters) and quadcopters, in addition to Israeli artillery and military battle ships, all of which were striking the area west of Rafah,” one told AFP. Hamas said its fighters were battling Israeli troops on the streets in the city, near the besieged Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt. The Gaza war began after Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on southern Israel which resulted in the deaths of 1,194 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures. The militants also seized 251 hostages. Of these, 116 remain in Gaza although the army says 41 are dead. Israel’s retaliatory military offensive has left at least 37,232 people dead in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-ruled territory’s health ministry. The latest toll includes at least 30 more deaths over the previous day, it said. Efforts to reach a truce stalled when Israel began ground operations in Rafah, but US President Joe Biden in late May launched a new effort to secure a deal.
On Monday the UN Security Council adopted a US-drafted resolution supporting the plan. Blinken, in Doha on Wednesday to promote Biden’s ceasefire roadmap, said Washington would work with regional partners to “close the deal.”
Hamas responded to mediators Qatar and Egypt late Tuesday. Blinken said some of its proposed amendments “are workable and some are not.”Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said the group sought “a permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal” of Israeli troops from Gaza, demands repeatedly rejected by Israel. The plan includes a six-week ceasefire, a hostage-prisoner exchange and Gaza reconstruction. It would be the first truce since a week-long November pause in fighting saw hostages freed and Palestinians released from Israeli jails. Blinken said Israel was behind the plan, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government has far-right members strongly opposed to the deal, has not publicly endorsed it.
Blinken expressed hopes that an agreement could be reached.
“We have to see... over the course of the coming days whether those gaps are bridgeable,” he said. A UN investigation concluded Wednesday that Israel had committed crimes against humanity during the war, while Israeli and Palestinian armed groups had both committed war crimes. The independent Commission of Inquiry’s report is the first in-depth investigation by UN experts into Gaza’s bloodiest-ever war. Israel’s foreign ministry dismissed it as “biased and tainted by a distinct anti-Israeli agenda.”The war has led to widespread destruction, with hospitals out of service and the UN warning of famine. The World Health Organization said more than 8,000 children aged under five have been treated for acute malnutrition in Gaza, where only two stabilization centers for severely malnourished patients currently operate. “Despite reports of increased delivery of food, there is currently no evidence that those who need it most are receiving sufficient quantity and quality of food,” said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Israeli campaign group the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which seeks a negotiated return of the hostages, said Hamas’s response “represents another step toward accepting Israel’s hostage deal proposal,” a reference to the Biden plan. Some Gazans have called on Hamas to do more to secure an agreement. “Hamas does not see that we are tired, we are dead, we are destroyed,” said a man called Abu Shaker. “What are you waiting for? The war must end at any cost.” Israel’s military on Thursday said troops carried out “targeted operations in the area of Rafah,” where they found weapons and killed several militants “in close-quarters encounters.”
More than 10 militants were killed in central Gaza, it said.
An AFP reporter reported overnight strikes and shelling elsewhere in the coastal territory. Gaza’s civil defense agency said three bodies were recovered from a home in Nuseirat, central Gaza, after an Israeli strike. On Wednesday Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis attacked a merchant ship in the Red Sea, part of a campaign they say is in solidarity with Palestinians. On Thursday, a merchant ship caught fire after being hit by two “projectiles” in the Gulf of Aden, Britain’s navy-run United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said. Fallout from the Gaza war is also regularly felt on the Israeli-Lebanon frontier, where deadly cross-border exchanges have escalated. Hezbollah on both Wednesday and Thursday said it attacked military targets in Israel with barrages of rockets and drones, in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed one of its commanders. The Israeli military said most launches had been intercepted while others ignited fires. Government spokesman David Mencer told a press briefing that “Israel will respond with force to all aggressions by Hezbollah.” Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, speaking during a visit to Baghdad by Iran’s acting foreign minister, said the potential “expansion of the war is a danger, not only for Lebanon but for the entire region.”

Israel denies hitting designated ‘safe zone’ following Palestinian news agency report
Lucas Lilieholm/CNN/June 13, 2024
Israel’s military denied striking a designated “safe zone” in Gaza on Thursday after the official Palestinian news agency WAFA said a region filled with refugees was hit by “land, sea and air strikes.”Al-Mawasi, a coastal region west of Rafah previously designated by Israel as a safe zone for Palestinians was bombarded early on Thursday, including by navy boats firing heavy machine guns, WAFA said. WAFA’s report did not give any details about whether there were any casualties. The Israeli military denied carrying out any strikes on the safe zone or surrounding areas. “Contrary to the reports from the last few hours, the IDF did not strike in the Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi,” the Israel Defense Forces told CNN. The latest report of a strike come as a ceasefire plan for the devastating eight-month war between Israel and Hamas stutters, with neither side yet publicly committing to the deal despite intense lobbying from American officials, including US President Joe Biden. Hamas said in a statement Wednesday it “has shown the necessary positivity in all stages of negotiations” to reach a “comprehensive and acceptable agreement based on the just demands of our people.”The statement comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken questioned whether the Palestinian militant group is “proceeding in good faith” in the ceasefire negotiations, saying Hamas had proposed a number of changes in their response to the latest deal, which “go beyond positions they had previously taken.”
On Wednesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Rafah said it had received information from Israeli authorities that fighting will continue in western Rafah. CNN video showed many Palestinians taking down shelters and packing up their belongings after warnings spread of a pending military operation. An estimated 550,000 people are now in Al-Mawasi, according to a report from Oxfam, after the IDF ordered people in eastern Rafah to head to the “expanded humanitarian area” as it stepped up its operations in southern Gaza. Currently just 121 toilets have been installed in the densely packed tent city, according to Oxfam, meaning every toilet is shared by more than 4,000 people. The Al-Mawasi camp was already filled with displaced people before civilians in Rafah were ordered to move there. The United Nations has called facilities in the area unsuitable for the hundreds of thousands of Gazans uprooted by violence in Rafah and across the Gaza Strip. More than 1 million people have fled Rafah to the nearby areas of Al-Mawasi, Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis in recent weeks, according to Oxfam. Some 1.7 million people, more than two thirds of Gaza’s population, are now estimated to be crammed into an area of 69 square kilometers (27 square miles) — less than a fifth of the strip. The reports of strikes on Thursday follow a mass-casualty operation by Israel to rescue hostages held by Hamas over the weekend. The Israeli military rescued four hostages in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, an operation that Gazan authorities said killed 236 people and injured more than 400 others.

Poll shows rise in support by Palestinians for armed struggle
Ali Sawafta/RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters)/June 13, 2024
Support for armed struggle as the best means to end Israeli occupation and achieve statehood rose among Palestinians while backing for the militant group Hamas also increased slightly in the last three months, according to an opinion poll. The poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) showed support for armed struggle climbed by 8 percentage points to 54% of those surveyed in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Support for Hamas rose by 6 percentage points to 40%. Fatah, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, had 20% backing. The polling was carried out some eight months since the start of the Gaza war, which began when Hamas fighters stormed communities in Israel, killing some 1,200 people and abducting another 250, according to Israeli tallies, prompting the Gaza war. More than 37,000 Palestinians have been killed as a result of the devastating offensive Israel has waged in Hamas-ruled Gaza since then, Gaza health authorities say. The poll found that two-thirds thought the Oct. 7 attack was a correct decision - a 4 percentage point drop from the previous poll. The decrease came from Gaza, where 57% of respondents said the decision was correct, down from 71% in March.
It showed that about 80% of Palestinians in Gaza had lost a relative or had a relative that had been injured in the war. Walid Ladadweh, head of the Survey Research Unit at PSR, said that the increase in support for Hamas and armed action, while not significant compared to the previous poll, was a reaction to Israel's destruction and killing in Gaza. He also said the poll reflected dissatisfaction with the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority led by Abbas, who has long sought to negotiate the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel and rejects armed struggle. The peace process which Palestinians hoped would yield a state in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital - territories seized by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war - has been moribund for years, while Israel has expanded settlements in the West Bank and opposes Palestinian statehood. Abbas and the Islamist Hamas have long been at odds over strategy, with Hamas viewing as a failure his approach of trying to negotiate a Palestinian state alongside Israel and advocating armed struggle. "This war, like previous ones, has radicalization effects on both sides," said Ghassan Khatib, a lecturer at Birzeit University in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
More than 60% supported the PA's dissolution, the poll found, and 89% want Abbas to resign, up from 84% three months ago. Hamas - which has long been shunned by many Western governments as a terrorist organisation and whose charter calls for Israel's destruction - seized control of the Gaza Strip from the Abbas-led PA in 2007 after defeating Fatah the previous year in a legislative election. While the polls show Hamas has more support than Fatah, jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti is the most popular preference as Abbas' successor, with 39% supporting him, followed by Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh with 23%. Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer, asked about the Palestinian poll, said: "I've got no way of knowing whether that's correct or not. Unfortunately it does sound as if it's correct. What sort of leadership does the Palestinian people have that lead them to this perpetual war?" "Once Hamas is defeated, afterwards, we want Gaza to be run by Gazans - but not Gazans that are intent on killing Jews."

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia's frozen assets. Here's how it will work
Fatima Hussein/WASHINGTON (AP)/June 13, 2024
Leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies have agreed to engineer a $50 billion loan to help Ukraine in its fight for survival. Interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets would be used as collateral. Details of the deal were being hashed out by G7 leaders at their summit in Italy. The money could reach Kyiv before the end of the year, according to U.S. and French officials. President Joe Biden told reporters at a news conference Thursday that the move was part of a “historic agreement.” Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said providing a loan through Russia's assets "is a vital step forward in providing sustainable support for Ukraine in winning this war."Here's how the plan would work:
Where would the money come from?
Most of the money would be in the form of a loan mostly guaranteed by the U.S. government, backed by profits being earned on roughly $260 billion in immobilized Russian assets. The vast majority of that money is held in European Union nations.
A French official said the loan could be “topped up” with European money or contributions from other countries. A U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the agreement said the G7 leaders' official statement due out Friday will leave the door open to trying to confiscate the Russian assets entirely.
Why not just give Ukraine the frozen assets?
That's much harder to do. For more than a year, officials from multiple countries have debated the legality of confiscating the money and sending it to Ukraine. The U.S. and its allies immediately froze whatever Russian central bank assets they had access to when Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. That basically was money being held in banks outside Russia. The assets are immobilized and cannot be accessed by Moscow, but they still belong to Russia. While governments can generally freeze property or funds without difficulty, turning them into forfeited assets that can be used for the benefit of Ukraine requires an extra layer of judicial procedure, including a legal basis and adjudication in a court. The EU instead has set aside the profits being generated by the frozen assets. That pot of money is easier to access. Separately, the U.S. this year passed a law called the REPO Act — short for the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act — that allows the Biden administration to seize $5 billion in Russian state assets in the U.S. and use them for the benefit of Kyiv. That arrangement is being worked out. How could the loan be used and how soon?It will be up to technical experts to work through the details.
Ukraine will be able to spend the money in several areas, including for military, economic and humanitarian needs and reconstruction, the U.S. official said.
Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the goal is “to provide the necessary resources to Ukraine now for its economic energy and other needs so that it's capable of having the resilience necessary to withstand Russia's continuing aggression.”
Another goal is to get the money to Ukraine quickly. The French official, who was not authorized to be publicly named according to French presidential policy, said the details could be worked out "very quickly and in any case, the $50 billion will be disbursed before the end of 2024.” Beyond the costs of the war, the needs are great. The World Bank’s latest damage assessment of Ukraine, released in February, estimates that costs for reconstruction and recovery of the nation stand at $486 billion over the next 10 years. The move to unlock Russia's assets comes after there was a long delay in Washington by Congress in approving military aid for Ukraine. At an Atlantic Council event previewing the G7 summit, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, said “the fact that American funding is not quite reliable is a very important additional reason to go that route.”Who would be on the hook in the case of a default? If Russia regained control of its frozen assets or if the immobilized funds were not generating enough interest to pay back the loan, "then the question of burden-sharing arises,” according to the French official. Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said last week that there were worries among European finance ministers that their countries “will be left holding the bag if Ukraine defaults.”Some nations are critical of the plan to seize Russian assets. Chinese Embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu told The Associated Press that the U.S. is "fueling the fight and inciting confrontation.”“We urge the U.S. to immediately stop slapping illegal unilateral sanctions and play a constructive role in ending the conflict and restoring peace.”

G7 summit opens with deal to use Russian assets for Ukraine as EU's traditional powers recalibrate
BORGO EGNAZIA, Italy (AP) /Nicole Winfield, Paolo Santalucia And Colleen Long
Thu, June 13, 2024
A Group of Seven summit opened Thursday with agreement reached on a U.S. proposal to back a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets as collateral, giving Kyiv a strong show of support even as Europe's political chessboard shifts to the right. Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni welcomed the G7 heads of state to the summit at a luxury resort in southern Italy, saying she wanted the message of this meeting to be one of dialogue with the global south and unity. She likened the G7 to the ancient olive trees that are a symbol of the Puglia region, “with their solid roots, and branches projected toward the future.”Beyond the the war in Ukraine, Pope Francis will become the first pope to address a G7 summit, adding a dash of celebrity and moral authority to the annual gathering. He’ll be speaking Friday about the promises and perils of artificial intelligence, but is expected to also renew his appeal for a peaceful end to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The G7 includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Italy, which is hosting the summit, has invited several African leaders — Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Kenyan President William Ruto and Tunisian President Kais Saied — to press Italy's development and migration initiatives on the continent. Other guests include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, fresh off his own election, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With Biden, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and now French President Emmanuel Macron facing elections in the coming months, pressure was on the G7 to get done what it can while the status quo lasts.
Frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine
The U.S. proposal involves engineering a $50 billion loan to help Ukraine in its fight against Russia that would use interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets, most of them held in the European Union, as collateral. A French official, briefing reporters Wednesday, said a political decision by the leaders had been reached but that technical and legal details of the mechanism to tap into the assets still had to be worked out. The issue is complicated because if the Russian assets one day are unfrozen — say if the war ends — then the windfall profits will no longer be able to be used to pay off the loan, requiring a burden-sharing arrangement with other countries. In addition to the deal, Sunak announced up to 242 million pounds (286 million euros or $310 million) in nonmilitary aid to Ukraine for humanitarian, energy and stabilization needs. Washington also sent strong signals of support, with widened sanctions against Russia to target Chinese companies that are helping its war machine.
Europe's new political chessboard
Meloni goes into the meeting fortified at home and abroad after her far-right party had an even stronger showing in the European Parliament election than the national general election in 2022 that made her Italy’s first female premier. Known for its revolving-door governments, Italy is now in the unusual position of being the most stable power in the EU. The leaders of the G7’s two other EU members, Germany and France, didn't fare nearly as well, rattled after hard-right parties made strong showings in the vote. Macron called a snap election and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw his Social Democrats finish behind mainstream conservatives and the far-right Alternative for Germany. As a result, Meloni is likely to be able to steer the three-day meeting to her key priority items as she further cements her role on the world stage, analysts said. One sign of her flexed far-right muscles: Meloni's office denied media reports that Italy was trying to water down language about access to abortion in the final communique. A French official, speaking anonymously in line with Macron’s office customary practices, said there were diverging views with Italian negotiators on some topics, including on sexual and reproductive health and vaccines.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed abortion was being discussed, but said discussions were continuing. “While it’s unlikely the recent results will radically shift the focus of the upcoming G7 Summit, this electoral win offers Premier Meloni additional leverage to frame this as an essentially ‘Mediterranean Summit,” said Nick O’Connell, deputy director of the Atlantic Council. That includes pushing her migration agenda as Meloni seeks to leverage her program for a nonexploitative relationship with Africa to boost development while curbing illegal migration to Europe.
The pope and artificial intelligence
Pope Francis has called for an international treaty to ensure AI is developed and used ethically, acknowledging the promise it offers but emphasizing the grave and existential threats it poses. He'll bring that campaign to the world's industrialized countries as wars are raging across multiple fronts. One of his greatest concerns has been on the use of AI in the armaments sector, which has been a frequent focus of the Jesuit pope who has called even traditional weapons makers “merchants of death.”But Francis is also concerned about what AI means for the poorest and weakest: technology that could determine the reliability of an applicant for a mortgage, the right of a migrant to receive political asylum or the chance of reoffending by someone previously convicted of a crime.
It's happening where?
The G7 summit is taking place in a sprawling luxury resort that’s something of a theater set, a faux town made to resemble one of Puglia’s medieval white-washed hamlets but that actually only dates from 2010. Located next to an actual archaeological park, Borgo Egnazia features narrow streets, villas, restaurants and a town square complete with a clocktower. A favorite of celebrities, it will be sealed off to outsiders for the duration of the summit. No such five-star accommodations await the 2,000-plus police and Carabinieri forces who have been brought in to provide security. Authorities on Wednesday sequestered the decommissioned cruise ship that had been housing them in Brindisi’s port, after the police union complained about unacceptable hygienic conditions on board. As with any G7, an assortment of anti-global, anti-war and climate activists are staging protests around the summit venue, but far from where the leaders are meeting. One group is staging a “dinner for the poor” on Friday night calling for “peace, the rights of peoples and against the Big 7 who claim to decide the destiny of the world and our planet.”

Israeli forces kill three Palestinians, seize weapons in West Bank raid
Ali Sawafta/QABATIYA, West Bank (Reuters/June 13, 2024
Israeli forces raided a town in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, killing three Palestinians and detaining several others in what the army described as an operation to pre-empt militant attacks. The West Bank, among territories where Palestinians seek statehood, has seen a surge in violence since the outbreak of the war between Israel and the militant Islamist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip. During the raid in Qabatiya, troops surrounded a building where two gunmen were holed up, exchanging fire with them, the army said. The two Palestinians were killed and witnesses saw the body of one them being lifted out by an armoured bulldozer. A third Palestinian was shot dead by Israeli troops elsewhere in the town, medical officials said. There was no immediate claim of the dead men by any armed Palestinian faction. The army described the two killed in the building as "senior terrorists" without elaborating, and added that weapons were seized in the raid. Several Palestinians were detained by troops, who also "exposed explosives planted into roads which were intended to be used to attack the forces", the army statement said. A soldier was wounded during exchanges of fire, it added.

Iran releases French national Louis Arnaud, imprisoned for over 20 months
Associated Press/June 13, 2024
French national Louis Arnaud arrived in France on Thursday after he was released by Iran where he was imprisoned for over 20 months for allegedly taking part in nationwide protests. Arnaud was greeted at Paris-Le-Bourget airport by his family in the presence of French Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Séjourné. French President Emmanuel Macron posted on the social media platform X on Wednesday that "Louis Arnaud is free" and thanked Oman, an interlocutor for the West with Iran, and "all those who helped bring this happy outcome."Arnaud had been arrested in September 2022 along with other Europeans. French media reported that Arnaud, a consultant in his 30s, was accused of having taken part in nationwide protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amin, a young woman who died after being arrested for allegedly not wearing her headscarf, or hijab, to the liking of security forces. Macron expressed his concern for three other French nationals who are still imprisoned in Iran, including Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who were arrested in May 2022. French authorities identified Kohler and Paris as a teachers' union official and her partner on vacation in the country. Iranian authorities accused them of protesting with Iranian teachers and taking part in an anti-government rally. The third French national detained in Iran has only been identified by his first name, Olivier. "I call on Iran to release them without delay,' Macron wrote on X. "We're still working" for them to be freed, Séjourné said Thursday. "Our diplomacy is still mobilized. ... That will be the next victory for tomorrow. But here we must be satisfied with a great diplomatic victory for France."

Iran expands nuclear capacities further: IAEA
AFP/June 13, 2024
VIENNA: Iran is further expanding its nuclear capacities, the UN atomic watchdog said Thursday, one week after the agency’s board of governors passed a resolution criticizing Tehran’s lack of cooperation with the IAEA. The International Atomic Energy Agency informed its members that Tehran told it that it was installing more cascades at the enrichment facilities in Natanz and Fordow, according to a statement sent to AFP. A diplomatic source deemed this development as “moderate.”A cascade is a series of centrifuges, machines used in the process of enriching uranium. The motion brought by Britain, France and Germany — but opposed by China and Russia — at the IAEA’s 35-nation board last week was the first of its kind since November 2022. The resolution — which Tehran slammed as “hasty and unwise” — came amid an impasse over Iran’s escalating nuclear activities and as Western powers fear Tehran may be seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, a claim Iran denies. Although symbolic in nature at this stage, the censure motion aims to raise diplomatic pressure on Iran, with the option to potentially refer the issue to the UN Security Council. In the past, similar resolutions have prompted Tehran to retaliate by removing surveillance cameras and other equipment from its nuclear facilities and ratcheting up its uranium enrichment activities. According to the IAEA, Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state to enrich uranium to the high level of 60 percent — just short of weapons-grade — while it keeps accumulating large uranium stockpiles. The IAEA has said that Tehran has significantly ramped up its nuclear program and now has enough material to build several atomic bombs. The Islamic republic has gradually broken away from its commitments under the nuclear deal it struck with world powers in 2015. The landmark deal provided Iran with relief from Western sanctions in exchange for curbs on its atomic program, but it fell apart after the unilateral withdrawal of the United States under then-president Donald Trump in 2018.
Efforts to revive the deal have so far failed.

US national security adviser says Israel stands behind cease-fire proposal
Naharnet/June 13, 2024 
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday pushed back against assertions that Israel isn't fully committed to the cease-fire proposal with Hamas that President Joe Biden outlined in late May at the White House.
"Israel has supplied this proposal. It has been sitting on the table for some time. Israel has not contradicted or walked that back," Sullivan said Thursday in Italy, where Biden was set to attend the annual Group of Seven leaders' summit. "To this day they stand behind the proposal.""I don't think that there is a contradiction in the Israeli position," Sullivan added. Sullivan reiterated that Hamas had responded by offering an amended proposal and he said the goal is "to figure out how we work to bridge the remaining gaps and get to a deal.""The goal is to try to bring this to a conclusion as rapidly as possible," he told reporters. On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that mediators are trying to close the deal for an elusive cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza. Hamas has requested numerous changes to a U.S.-backed proposal — some of which Blinken said were "workable" and some not. Hamas says its "amendments" aim to guarantee a permanent cease-fire and complete Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. The cease-fire proposal announced by Biden includes those provisions, but Hamas has expressed wariness whether Israel will implement the terms. Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza has killed more than 37,100 people, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its count. Palestinians are facing widespread hunger because the war has largely cut off the flow of food, medicine and other supplies. U.N. agencies say over 1 million in Gaza could experience the highest level of starvation by mid-July. Israel launched the war after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, in which militants stormed into southern Israel, killed some 1,200 people — mostly civilians — and abducted about 250.

Biden will urge G7 leaders to push Hamas to back ceasefire deal - White House's Sullivan
BARI, Italy (Reuters) - /June 13, 2024
U.S. President Joe Biden will urge fellow leaders of Group of Seven nations to support ceasefire negotiations and encourage Hamas to accept a proposal backed by Israel, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of G7 leaders in southern Italy, Sullivan said the world should encourage the Palestinian militant group to accept the proposal and avoid stalemate. Sullivan said Israel is standing behind a ceasefire proposal for the eight-month-old war in the Gaza Strip, and the goal is to bridge gaps with Hamas and get to a deal soon. Hamas has welcomed the ceasefire proposal, but insists any agreement must secure an end to the war, a demand Israel still rejects. Israel described Hamas's response to the new U.S. peace proposal as total rejection. Since a brief week-long truce in November, repeated attempts to arrange a ceasefire have failed, with Hamas insisting on a permanent end to the war and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Sullivan said Hamas had submitted an amended proposal with some minor changes that could be worked out, as well as others that were not in line with what Biden had laid out or that had been embraced by the U.N. Security Council. "Our goal is to figure out how we bridge the remaining gaps and get to a deal," he said, adding that discussions would continue with Qatar and Egypt, who, in turn, would work with Hamas to reach agreement as quickly as possible. Sullivan stressed that Israel was standing behind the ceasefire proposal Biden outlined in a May 31 speech, adding that he had heard no Israeli leader challenge the deal. Hamas precipitated the war when militants from Israeli-blockaded Gaza stormed into southern Israel in a lightning strike last Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages back to the enclave, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's invasion and bombardment of Gaza since then has killed at least 37,000 people, according to the territory's health ministry. Thousands more are feared dead and buried under rubble, with most of the population of 2.3 million displaced. Biden was expected to update G7 leaders on the ceasefire negotiations and how their countries could support the process, Sullivan said, underscoring the broader implications for increasing tension between Israel and Lebanon. Biden would discuss "the increasing intensity and scope of the strikes by Hezbollah deeper into Israel, and including into civilian areas," Sullivan said, adding that a ceasefire in Gaza would help bring calm to that region as well. G7 leaders would also compare notes on what he called "the continuing threat posed by Iran, both with respect to its support for proxy forces, and with respect to the Iranian nuclear program, where we continue to have grave concerns."

Iranian authorities release French national Louis Arnaud, imprisoned for over 20 months
PARIS (AP)/June 13, 2024
French national Louis Arnaud arrived in France on Thursday after he was released by Iran where he was imprisoned for over 20 months for allegedly taking part in nationwide protests. Arnaud was greeted at Paris-Le-Bourget airport by his family in the presence of French Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Séjourné. French President Emmanuel Macron posted on the social media platform X on Wednesday that “Louis Arnaud is free” and thanked Oman, an interlocutor for the West with Iran, and “all those who helped bring this happy outcome.” Arnaud had been arrested in September 2022 along with other Europeans. French media reported that Arnaud, a consultant in his 30s, was accused of having taken part in nationwide protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amin, a young woman who died after being arrested for allegedly not wearing her headscarf, or hijab, to the liking of security forces. Macron expressed his concern for three other French nationals who are still imprisoned in Iran, including Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who were arrested in May 2022. French authorities identified Kohler and Paris as a teachers’ union official and her partner on vacation in the country. Iranian authorities accused them of protesting with Iranian teachers and taking part in an anti-government rally. The third French national detained in Iran has only been identified by his first name, Olivier. “I call on Iran to release them without delay,’ Macron wrote on X. “We're still working” for them to be freed, Séjourné said Thursday. "Our diplomacy is still mobilized. ... That will be the next victory for tomorrow. But here we must be satisfied with a great diplomatic victory for France.”

Iran expanding enrichment capacity after IAEA resolution, diplomats say
Francois Murphy and John Irish
VIENNA/PARIS (Reuters) -Wed, June 12, 2024
Iran is responding to last week's U.N. nuclear watchdog board resolution against it by expanding its uranium-enrichment capacity at two underground sites, but the escalation is not as big as many had feared, diplomats said on Wednesday. Iran bristles at such resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board of Governors, and it reacted to the previous one 18 months earlier by enriching to up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade, at a second site and announcing a large expansion of its enrichment programme. This time it plans to install more cascades, or clusters, of centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium, at both its underground enrichment sites, five diplomats said. IAEA inspectors observing Iran's progress plan to issue a report to member states on Thursday, three of the diplomats said. "It's not as much as I would expect," one Vienna-based diplomat said, referring to the scale of Iran's escalation. "Why? I don't know. Maybe they're waiting for the new government," they said, referring to the death in a helicopter crash last month of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, and the presidential election due to be held on June 28. The IAEA Board passed a resolution a week ago calling on Iran to step up cooperation with the IAEA and reverse its recent barring of inspectors despite earlier U.S. concerns Tehran would respond with atomic escalation. Only Russia and China opposed. Diplomats did not go into specifics on the number or type of centrifuges being added or what level they would enrich to, though one diplomat said they would not be used to quickly expand Iran's production of uranium enriched to up to 60%, close to the 90% of weapons grade. The diplomats said they would wait to see what the IAEA said Iran had actually done but they were aware of Iran's plans. The move is "at the lower end of expectations and something we're pretty sure they were going to do anyway", one diplomat said, meaning it would have happened even without the resolution. Iran did not fully follow through on its November 2022 announcement after the previous resolution. While it installed all the centrifuges it said it would at its underground enrichment plant at Natanz, 12 cascades of one advanced model, the IR-2m, are not yet in operation. Iran is only enriching to up to 60% at an above-ground pilot plant at Natanz and its Fordow site, which is dug into a mountain. In November 2022 it started enriching to up to 60% at Fordow but it has yet to install all the additional cascades it said it would.

NATO defense ministers thrash out new security aid and training support plan for Ukraine
Lorne Cook/BRUSSELS (AP)/June 13, 2024
NATO defense ministers gathered Thursday hoping to agree on a new plan to provide long-term security assistance and military training to Ukraine amid Russia's full-scale invasion, after Hungary promised not to veto the proposal as long as it’s not forced to take part.The ministers are meeting over two days at NATO headquarters in Brussels in the last high-level talks before a summit hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington on July 9-11, where the military organization’s leaders are expected to announce financial support for Ukraine. Ukraine’s Western allies are trying to bolster their military support as Russian troops launch attacks along the more than 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, taking advantage of a lengthy delay in U.S. military aid. European Union money was also held up by political infighting. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is chairing Thursday’s meeting, said that Ukraine’s beleaguered armed forces need longer-term predictability about the kinds of weapons, ammunition and funds they can expect to receive. “The whole idea is to minimize the risk for gaps and delays as we saw earlier this year,” Stoltenberg told reporters. The hold-up, he said, “is one of the reasons why the Russians are now able to push and to actually occupy more land in Ukraine.”Since Russia’s full-fledged invasion in February 2022, Ukraine’s Western backers have routinely met as part of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, run by the Pentagon, to drum up weapons and ammunition for Kyiv. A fresh meeting was held at NATO headquarters on Thursday. Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair said that his country would send Ukraine 2,300 rocket motors, and that 80,000 more of the devices are being tested. "Pending the results of those tests, we intend to ship more packages of these motors to our Ukrainian partners in the future,” he told reporters. While the contact group meetings have resulted in significant battlefield support, they have been of an ad-hoc and unpredictable nature. Stoltenberg has spearheaded an effort to have NATO take up some of the slack. The idea is for the 32-nation military alliance to coordinate the security assistance and training process, partly by using NATO’s command structure and drawing on funds from its common budget. Stoltenberg said he hopes Biden and his counterparts will agree in Washington to maintain the funding level for military support they have provided Ukraine since Russia launched its full-fledged invasion in February 2022. He estimates this at around 40 billion euros ($43 billion) worth of equipment each year. On Wednesday, Hungary announced that it would not veto the plan as long as it’s not forced to take part. “I asked the Secretary-General to make it clear that all military action outside NATO territory can only be voluntary in nature, according to NATO rules and our traditions,” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said. “Hungary has received the guarantees we need.” The world’s biggest security alliance does not send weapons or ammunition to Ukraine as an organization, and has no plans to put troops on the ground. But many of its members give help on a bilateral basis, and jointly provide more than 90% of the country’s military support. The other 31 allies see Russia’s war on Ukraine as an existential security threat to Europe, but most of them, including Biden, have been extremely cautious to ensure that NATO is not drawn into a wider conflict with Russia. NATO operates on the basis that an attack on any single ally will be met with a response from them all.

Ukraine's foreign minister welcomes US sanctions on Russia
Reuters/June 13, 2024
KYIV - Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Thursday he welcomed the U.S. imposing a sweeping new set of sanctions on Russia and praised the measures taken against Russia's defence-industrial base. "We particularly applaud tough measures against Russia's defense-industrial base and its access to technology and resources abroad," he wrote on X. "Any entity assisting Russia in the production of weapons must be subjected to the most intense pressure." The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday announced new sanctions on more than 300 entities and individuals aimed at cutting off Russia's access to products and services needed to sustain military production for its war in Ukraine, including dozens of Chinese suppliers. The move is aimed at restricting the Russian military's ability to exploit certain U.S. technologies in addition to targeting entities in Asia, Europe and Africa. The Treasury also said it was imposing sanctions on key parts of Russia's financial infrastructure, including the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), which operates Russia's largest public markets for equity, fixed income, foreign exchange and other products.

Ukraine is finally getting to hit Russia hard with its 'wonder-weapons,' and that's turning the tide of the war: military expert
Kwan Wei Kevin Tan/June 13, 2024
Things are starting to look up for Ukraine, a retired UK colonel said on Wednesday.
Ukraine has notched a couple of wins after it was allowed to hit Russian military targets directly. Vladimir Putin, for his part, has also threatened to retaliate against Ukraine's Western allies. Letting Ukraine attack Russian military targets directly with its "wonder-weapons" is beginning to turn the tide of the war in Kyiv's favor, says a retired UK colonel. "For too long, Ukraine has had to fight the invading Russians with one hand tied behind its back," Hamish de Bretton-Gordon wrote in a commentary for The Telegraph that was published on Wednesday. The former soldier held multiple appointments in his 23-year military career with the British Army. Besides serving as the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Regiment's commanding officer from 2004 to 2006, de Bretton-Gordon also led NATO's Rapid Reaction CBRN Battalion from 2005 to 2007. "At last, however, that is beginning to change. From now, with permissions granted from various Western countries — but most crucially the United States — Ukraine can strike targets far deeper into Russia," de Bretton-Gordon said. Last month, Politico reported that the Biden administration had given Ukraine its permission to use US-provided weapons on Russian targets in Kharkiv. Russian forces launched an assault on the region in May as part of a summer offensive on Ukraine's second largest city. "Whilst it is still obliged to prioritize the Kharkiv front by the nature of the permissions granted (Washington is still too afraid to give Kyiv carte blanche to fire anywhere), there is evidence that it has freed up the Ukrainian armed forces to use the other weapons it had in reserve to strike elsewhere," de Bretton-Gordon noted in his commentary. The former colonel listed several Ukraine's recent military accomplishments, which included drone assaults on Russian naval vessels at Taganrog Bay and the Akhtubinsk airfield in southern Russia. The latter attack resulted in the destruction of Russia's latest stealth aircraft, the Su-57 fighter bomber. "For too long Kyiv was fighting an uneven battle, putting it in the impossible position of seeing Russia massing troops across its own border, unable to hit them," de Bretton-Gordon said. "Now that has changed, I think the Kharkiv front will begin to turn back in Kyiv's favor." The recent turn of events, de Bretton-Gordon said, wasn't something that Russia could simply withstand by relying on attritional warfare. "Russia cannot sustain the industrial level of casualties it is currently facing — over 500,000 so far. I don't care how good Russia's industrial complex is. In the modern era that figure is simply not sustainable," he said. But Ukraine's accomplishments in the battlefield could risk further Russian escalation. Last month, Russian leader Vladimir Putin hinted that European countries who'd encouraged Ukraine to attack Russia directly could face reprisals. "So, these officials from NATO countries, especially the ones based in Europe, particularly in small European countries, should be fully aware of what is at stake," Putin told reporters on May 28. "They should keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory," he added. Representatives for Ukraine's and Russia's defense ministries didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from BI sent outside regular business hours.

Over 20 killed by suspected Islamists in eastern Congo, local officials say
Reuters/June 13, 2024
BENI, Democratic Republic of Congo/Suspected Islamist rebels killed over 20 people in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's North Kivu province on Wednesday, two officials from the local administration said on Thursday.The attack took place on the village of Mayikengo in Lubero territory. Lubero administrator Alain Kiwewa said a toll of between 20 and 30 had been reported on Thursday morning. He blamed the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a rebel group affiliated to the Islamic State that started as a Ugandan insurgency but has operated from the jungles of eastern Congo for almost three decades. Another local official, sector chief Macaire Sivikunula, said 25 people were killed including six women. He also blamed the ADF. The assailants asked residents to gather in a market for a meeting and then attacked the crowd with fire arms and machetes, Sivikunula said. The ADF are accused of killing over 80 people in similar attacks on villages in the same province last week.

UN adopts a resolution demanding that Sudan's paramilitary force halt its siege of a Darfur city
EDITH M. LEDERER/UNITED NATIONS (AP) /June 13, 2024
The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution Thursday demanding that Sudan’s paramilitary force halt its siege of the only capital in the vast western region of Darfur that it doesn’t control where more than a million people are reportedly trapped. The resolution, which was approved by a vote of 14-0 with Russia abstaining, expresses “grave concern” at the spreading violence and credible reports that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are carrying out “ethnically motivated violence” in El Fasher. Sudan plunged into conflict in mid-April 2023, when long-simmering tensions between its military and paramilitary leaders broke out in the capital Khartoum and spread to other regions including Darfur, which became synonymous with genocide two decades ago. The U.N. says over 14,000 people have been killed and 33,000 injured. Two decades ago, Darfur became synonymous with genocide and war crimes, particularly by the notorious Janjaweed Arab militias, against populations that identify as Central or East African. Up to 300,000 people were killed and 2.7 million were driven from their homes. That legacy appears to have returned, with the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor, Karim Khan, saying in January there are grounds to believe both sides may be committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide in Darfur. The RSF was formed from Janjaweed fighters by former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who ruled the country for three decades before being overthrown during a popular uprising in 2019. He is wanted by the ICC on charges of genocide and other crimes during the conflict in Darfur in the 2000s. The resolution demands that the RSF and government forces ensure the protection of civilians, including allowing those wishing to move in El Fasher or leave the North Darfur capital to safer areas. It calls for an immediate halt to the fighting and de-escalation around El Fasher, and for “the withdrawal of all fighters that threaten the safety and security of civilians.” The resolution calls on both sides “to seek an immediate cessation of hostilities, leading to a sustainable resolution to the conflict, through dialogue,” supported by U.N. envoy Ramtane Lamamra and the African Union’s High-Level Panel on Sudan. It also calls on all nations to halt interference fomenting conflict and instability instead of peace efforts and to remind countries supplying weapons to the combatants that they are violating a U.N. arms embargo and could face sanctions. U.N. political chief Rosemary DiCarlo told the council on April 19 that the year-long war has been fueled by weapons from foreign supporters who continue to flout U.N. sanctions aimed at helping end the conflict. “This is illegal, it is immoral, and it must stop,” she said. She didn’t name any of the foreign supporters. But Burhan, who led a military takeover of Sudan in 2021, is a close ally of neighboring Egypt and its president, former army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. In February, Sudan’s foreign minister held talks in Tehran with his Iranian counterpart amid unconfirmed reports of drone purchases for government forces. Dagalo, the leader of the RSF, has reportedly received support from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group. U.N. experts said in a recent report that the RSF has also received support from Arab allied communities and new military supply lines running through Chad, Libya and South Sudan. The resolution expresses concern at “the catastrophic and deteriorating humanitarian situation, including crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity, and the imminent risk of famine, particularly in Darfur.”The U.N. humanitarian office said Tuesday that the U.N. and aid organizations “are working against the clock to stave off famine and mitigate the most pressing humanitarian needs in Sudan. But the U.N. said this is “incredibly challenging” because this year’s humanitarian appeal for Sudan is just 16% cent funded -- with less than $441 million received of the $2.7 billion required.

Avoiding the Election Error in Tunisia
Sabina Henneberg/The Washington Institute/Jun 13, 2024
An opaque process and an apathetic electorate are among the reasons the contest does not warrant U.S. scrutiny. American officials appraising recent election results in India, Mexico, and the European Union—and awaiting a consequential vote at home—need not pay such close attention to one future contest: the presidential election in Tunisia. Kais Saied, the country’s leader, has drawn widespread reproach for reversing democratic progress since the Arab Spring protests, initiated by his freezing of parliament in July 2021. But overfocusing on this year’s campaign would be a misuse of Washington’s energy amid ambiguity surrounding Tunisia’s electoral law, an oversight authority stacked with Saied acolytes, and stark apathy among voters (the recent parliamentary election saw an abysmal 11 percent turnout). In this Policy Note, experts Sabina Henneberg and Sarah Yerkes explain why U.S. policymakers should save their efforts for deeper reforms. An effective approach, they argue, would emphasize economic stability and a healthy civic space along with fending off Russian and Chinese influence—all of which could serve American interests and lay the ground for a revitalization of Tunisia’s democratic project.

Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on June 13-14/2024
Iran's Attempts to Attack Israel Must Be Confronted
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute./June 13, 2024
Netanyahu's resolve in the face of so many challenges, from splits in his own war cabinet over the conduct of the war in Gaza to incessant pressure from Washington to agree to a ceasefire, has prompted comparisons with British wartime leader Sir Winston Churchill, with Andrew Roberts labelling the Israeli PM "The Winston Churchill of the Middle East."
There is massive evidence that the Biden administration would like to see Netanyahu removed and that someone more "compliant" to the wishes of the US replace him – a new Israeli prime minister who would not object to Hamas continuing to rule the Gaza Strip after the fighting ends, and rebuild its military to be able to attack Israel again as it has vowed to do. The US would also doubtless like an Israeli prime minister would gladly accept a Palestinian state supervised by Qatar, which has a regrettable but endless track record of promoting and sponsoring terrorists. The Biden administration would apparently like an Israeli prime minister who would agree that a nuclear-armed Iran is exactly what the Middle East needs at this time, and, to that end, has been begging European officials not to object to Iran's nuclear program.
If the Israelis are smart, they will keep Netanyahu. He has shown time and again that he can stand up to immense pressure from whoever is trying to insert a knife in Israel's back – whether the Obama administration proposing an Iranian nuclear bomb in 2015, or Senator Chuck Schumer and President Joe Biden's unsubtle efforts to try to get him ousted.
Unfortunately, the only way of seeing all the hostages released is by military pressure. To prevail against determined terrorist organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel and its allies need to rally support for Netanyahu, rather than constantly criticize him.
For only by defeating these deadly Iran-backed terrorist groups can there be any realistic chance of peace. Netanyahu's resolve in the face of so many challenges, from splits in his own war cabinet over the conduct of the war in Gaza to incessant pressure from Washington to agree to a ceasefire, has prompted comparisons with British wartime leader Sir Winston Churchill. Pictured: US President Joe Biden meets with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel on October 18, 2023. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
With Hamas facing the prospect of suffering a cataclysmic defeat in Gaza, the recent upsurge in attacks on northern Israel by Hezbollah, from Lebanon, suggests that Iran is determined to open a second military front to distract attention away from Hamas's dire plight, and to further the plan of its patron, Iran, to try to annihilate Israel.Iran's support for Hamas was crucial to enabling the terrorist organisation to carry out its murderous assault against southern Israel on October 7. Apart from providing valuable intelligence on the Israel Defence Forces' (IDF) key positions along the Gazan border, Iran was the main provider of the weaponry used to conduct the atrocities.
After Iran launched its first direct attack, from its own soil, against Israel in April, when most of the Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted before reaching their targets, Iran's options have become increasingly limited for providing assistance to its long-standing ally Hamas, as well as to its wish to exterminate Israel.The prospect of the Gaza conflict ending with the complete destruction of the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hamas is viewed with alarm in Tehran, which remains committed to maintaining its support for the so-called "axis of resistance", the collection of Islamist terrorist groups that includes Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The steady erosion of Hamas's ability to maintain its terrorist operations was highlighted at the weekend, when the IDF staged a daring rescue mission to free four Israeli hostages being held by the terror group in the Gaza district of Nuseirat.
With Hamas set to suffer a catastrophic defeat in Gaza at the hands of the IDF, Iran is clearly seeking to ease the pressure on its terrorist ally by provoking Israel into opening a second front by counterattacking more aggressively against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
This would explain the recent upsurge in attacks against northern Israel by Hezbollah terrorists in recent weeks. According to Israel's Shin Bet domestic intelligence service, Hezbollah launched more than 1,000 anti-tank missiles, rockets and drones against northern Israel -- in a country smaller than New Jersey -- during May. This compares with 334 in January and 534 in February, whilst in both March and April, there were more than 740.
The frequency of the attacks is having an increasingly difficult impact on Israelis living close to the border area, who are enduring almost daily bombardments, with Israeli officials claiming that nearly 5,000 projectiles have been launched towards Israel from Lebanon since the start of the war in Gaza.
At least 100,000 Israelis are estimated to have fled their homes in northern Israel since Hezbollah launched its attacks following Hamas's invasion on Israel on 7 October, and are living as displaced persons is temporary lodgings.
In the past week, the intensity of the attacks has led to Hezbollah rockets sparking a series of wildfires in northern Israel, with Israeli firefighters battling to contain the blazes, which have been exacerbated by high temperatures. More than 3,500 acres of land have been destroyed so far.
The use of Iranian-made drones in the attacks, moreover, signifies that Hezbollah is using more sophisticated methods to attack Israel's northern border, which Hezbollah officials insist will continue until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. They see to be hoping either to destroy Israel without being harmed themselves, or that that someone else will please stop the war that they began.
The upsurge in violence has increased the pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take firm action against the mounting threat Hezbollah poses to Israelis. Last week, an Israeli army reservist was killed and at least ten people wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Druze village of Hurfeish in the Upper Galilee. After conducting a personal tour of the region, Netanyahu warned that Israel was ready with an "extremely powerful" response if Hezbollah persisted with its attacks.
Netanyahu's willingness to give serious consideration to opening a second front in Israel's war against Iranian-backing terrorists is a measure of his utter determination to emerge victorious in his pledge to utterly destroy Hamas.
Netanyahu's resolve in the face of so many challenges, from splits in his own war cabinet over the conduct of the war in Gaza to incessant pressure from Washington to agree to a ceasefire, has prompted comparisons with British wartime leader Sir Winston Churchill, with Andrew Roberts labelling the Israeli PM "The Winston Churchill of the Middle East."There is massive evidence that the Biden administration would like to see Netanyahu removed and that someone more "compliant" to the wishes of the US replace him – a new Israeli prime minister who would not object to Hamas continuing to rule the Gaza Strip after the fighting ends, and rebuild its military to be able to attack Israel again as it has vowed to do. The US would also doubtless like an Israeli prime minister would gladly accept a Palestinian state supervised by Qatar, which has a regrettable but endless track record of promoting and sponsoring terrorists. The Biden administration would apparently like an Israeli prime minister who would agree that a nuclear-armed Iran is exactly what the Middle East needs at this time, and, to that end, has been begging European officials not to object to Iran's nuclear program.
If the Israelis are smart, they will keep Netanyahu. He has shown time and again that he can stand up to immense pressure from whoever is trying to insert a knife in Israel's back – whether the Obama administration proposing an Iranian nuclear bomb in 2015, or Senator Chuck Schumer and President Joe Biden's unsubtle efforts to try to get him ousted. While the IDF's successful operation to rescue four Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza will have boosted Netanyahu's claim that his uncompromising approach to defeating Hamas is paying dividends, the pressure on him both to accept a ceasefire -- an agreement he argues would simply reward Hamas for conducting its horrific terrorist attacks on October 7 -- and hold off from launching military action against Hezbollah remains strong.
Unfortunately, the only way of seeing all the hostages released is by military pressure. The UN Security Council's backing for a US resolution setting out a ceasefire plan for the war in Gaza will lend encouragement to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's latest diplomatic efforts to persuade Israel and Hamas to a temporary cessation of hostilities, which none of the parties, save Biden, remotely wants.
In his eighth diplomatic mission to the region since the October 7 attacks, Blinken is urging top Israeli officials to accept and implement a plan for postwar Gaza, while at the same time pushing for more international pressure on Hamas to accept a temporary ceasefire, which is not at all what Hamas wants. Like Iran, Hamas is looking for a saviour to permanently end the conflict it began so that it can go back to ruling Gaza and rebuilding its military to strike Israel again. At the same time, Blinken is also trying to cut his own separate deal with Hamas to release just the American hostages -- a plan that not only double-crosses Israel, but also undercuts his own proposal at the UN. Meanwhile, Washington is urging the Israeli government to limit its response to Hezbollah's constant attacks against Israel's northern border, with the Biden administration claiming that neither a "limited war" in Lebanon nor a "small regional war" are realistic options in dealing with Hezbollah, and that any escalation in Israel's military response could result in further involvement by Iran.
On both these issues -- calling for a ceasefire and limiting Israel's response to Hezbollah -- the Biden administration needs a reality check on what is really taking place on the ground on Israel's northern and southern borders. The fact that the freed Israeli hostages were being held by Hamas in a densely populated neighbourhood in Gaza area shows the lengths the terrorists are prepared to go to withstand Israel's military assault in the hope that they can use the remaining hostages as a bargaining chip to obtain favourable ceasefire terms. As for the risk of Iran deepening its involvement in the conflict, that has already happened, as the recent increase in Hezbollah attacks on Israel has demonstrated. To prevail against determined terrorist organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel and its allies need to rally support for Netanyahu, rather than constantly criticize him. For only by defeating these deadly Iran-backed terrorist groups can there be any realistic chance of peace.
**Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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AI, analytics and the future of Saudi Arabia’s workforce
Nicholas C. Lovegrove/Arab News/June 13/2024
Saudi Arabia is making significant strides in the world of artificial intelligence, in pursuit of its ambitious initiatives to position the Kingdom as a global leader in AI. The National Strategy for Data and Artificial Intelligence, launched in 2020, is a cornerstone of these efforts, seeking to attract $20 billion in investments by 2030 and cultivate a workforce of 20,000 AI and data specialists. These initiatives are inextricably linked to Vision 2030’s overarching goals of social reform and economic diversification, which together aim to establish Saudi Arabia as a regional leader in technology and innovation. AI represents a further significant advancement in human progress. Historically, businesses have leveraged technology to enhance productivity and efficiency by automating tasks that once required human effort. The current era, often referred to as the second machine age, is distinguished by numerous instances of machine intelligence and the integration of billions of interconnected systems working collectively to improve our ability to enhance our understanding of the world and to solve complex problems. AI and advanced analytics enable more accurate predictions, better decision-making and the development of new business strategies. In Saudi Arabia, these technologies are poised to transform industries, necessitating a reevaluation of human-machine collaboration. The potential economic impact within Saudi Arabia is substantial. According to a recent report by the professional services firm PwC, the projected economic impact of AI in the Middle East by 2030 is $320 billion, with an estimated $135.2 billion attributed to Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, McKinsey suggests that 41 percent of work activities in the Kingdom could be automated. This presents both significant opportunities and formidable challenges. The rapid advancement of AI, particularly generative AI, is revolutionizing how we work and live. Tools like ChatGPT represent some of the fastest-adopted technologies in history, significantly impacting productivity and decision-making processes. This intersection of AI and the workforce is particularly relevant for Saudi Arabia, which is making significant strides in AI adoption and workforce transformation as part of its Vision 2030 agenda.
To future-proof its workforce, Saudi Arabia is placing a strong emphasis on continuous learning and development in AI and data analytics. The country also recognizes that collaboration between government and the private sector is vital for driving workforce transformation and ensuring readiness for future challenges.Preparing the Saudi workforce for an AI-driven future involves equipping workers with the necessary skills and fostering an environment of innovation and adaptability.
However, this transformation is not without its challenges. The rise of AI raises concerns about misinformation, manipulation and the delicate balance between human judgment and machine algorithms. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits in terms of efficiency and innovation are substantial.
Preparing the Saudi workforce for an AI-driven future involves equipping workers with the necessary skills and fostering an environment of innovation and adaptability.
Generative models like ChatGPT redefine data analysis and idea generation. They offer unprecedented capabilities for enhancing human productivity and creativity. Leveraging AI to augment human abilities can lead to significant improvements in various sectors.
Still, it is crucial to adopt a balanced approach to AI integration, one that maximizes benefits while minimizing risks. This includes addressing ethical considerations to ensure AI promotes inclusivity and equity. Broader societal challenges associated with AI, such as the “alignment problem” and the “containment problem” also need to be addressed. The alignment problem concerns ensuring that AI systems’ objectives align with human values, while the containment problem involves preventing AI systems from acting outside their intended scope.Tackling these issues is essential for responsible AI integration.Saudi Arabia’s strategic investments and workforce development initiatives position the Kingdom to potentially become one of the global leaders of the AI revolution. By focusing on ethical AI practices and fostering a culture of continuous learning and innovation, Saudi Arabia can ensure a prosperous and inclusive future, in which everyone in its workforce has equal opportunities to participate in and benefit from the AI-driven initiatives. The Kingdom’s commitment to AI and analytics holds transformative potential, offering significant opportunities for productivity and innovation across various sectors.
As machines increasingly undertake cognitive tasks, the landscape of employment is changing, with human roles experiencing considerable transformation. For example, AI-powered chatbots are enhancing customer service efficiency, automated systems are streamlining data entry and robo-advisers are making financial services more accessible. However, this shift should not be viewed as a conflict between human workers and machines. Rather, we should recognize the potential for augmentation, where AI can enhance human capabilities rather than merely replace them.
Despite these advancements, there remains a crucial need for human judgment and regulation to oversee AI systems, ensure ethical standards are met and address complex issues that machines alone cannot resolve.
By focusing on how AI can complement human intelligence, we can unlock new possibilities for innovation and productivity. The journey toward an AI-driven future is filled with both opportunities and challenges. Saudi Arabia’s proactive approach, underpinned by Vision 2030 and significant investments in AI and workforce development, demonstrates its commitment to harnessing the power of AI for economic diversification and social reform. By embracing AI and analytics while addressing ethical considerations, Saudi Arabia is well positioned to become a global leader in technology and innovation, paving the way for a future that is not only prosperous and inclusive but also forward-looking. In shaping a world where the transformative power of AI acts as a catalyst for unprecedented progress, Saudi Arabia’s efforts resonate as a beacon of promise and potential.
• Nicholas C. Lovegrove is a professor of the practice of management at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business

As Gandhi said, if it’s on the internet it must be true
Ross Anderson/Arab News/June 13/2024
It has been a constant source of regret throughout my lengthy but so far relatively undistinguished career in the business of bashing out words on a keyboard that I have failed to interview Plato, Aristotle, Shakespeare, Dickens, Mark Twain, Albert Einstein, Winston Churchill and Martin Luther King.
In my defense, some of them were dead before I was born, so interviewing them would have required the assistance of a spirit medium. But still. What all those non-interviewees had in common was a way with words. The mots justes, the quotable quotes, the bons mots all flowed from them like an unstoppable river, in a way of which the rest of us can only dream. In comparison, most of us are tongue tied. We digress. We ramble. We are vague. On the rare occasions that we produce a genuinely memorable phrase, it was usually said first by someone else — often someone on my list of non-interviewees.
Not only that, but these great wordsmiths also required no cue or prompt to create a felicitous assembly of words that grabbed the attention, not just of the moment, but of posterity. For example, had I been speaking to Churchill about the courage and sacrifice of the mostly young English fighter pilots who won the Battle of Britain in the skies above southeast England in the summer of 1940, it would not have been necessary to ask: “So, Mr. Churchill, in your opinion, all things considered, would it be true to say that never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few?” No, the old boy came out with that zinger entirely off his own bat. Moreover, he did so in a speech to the House of Commons: it was thus recorded for posterity by Hansard, obviating the need for 1940s journalists to Google it.
These great wordsmiths required no cue or prompt to create a felicitous assembly of words that grabbed the attention
It is true to say that not all of Churchill’s arrows hit the bull’s eye. In 1942, for example, after the first significant British victory of the Second World War, at El-Alamein in Egypt, he told an audience: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” I’m sorry, say what now? That one needed a bit of work, one feels: maybe he came up with it one morning immediately after his standard breakfast, a pint of vintage Champagne. Like all those on my list of non-interviewees, Churchill is as famous for what he never said as for what he did. For example, you will be familiar with his oft-quoted gag about how Americans can always be relied upon to do the right thing, once they have exhausted every other possibility. Not only did he never say that, why would he? His mother was from Brooklyn, and insulting his own ancestry was not Churchill’s style.
A close rival of Churchill’s in the realm of fake quotes is Albert Einstein — who, as everyone knows, defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Except there is no record of his ever having said any such thing. And again, why would he? Einstein was a scientist — and doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is pretty much the basis of scientific research.
Most people blame the World Wide Web for the ease with which words can be ascribed to people who never uttered them. After all, as Mahatma Gandhi famously said, if it’s on the internet it must be true. And it is certainly the case that, if you type a famous phrase into a search engine, it will helpfully attribute it for you — in many cases, suspiciously, without any context to where, when and in what circumstances the words came to be said. Most people blame the World Wide Web for the ease with which words can be ascribed to people who never uttered them
That is why it is commonly believed that Voltaire said: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it” (he didn’t); that Abraham Lincoln said: “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time” (he didn’t); that Twain said: “The only two certainties in life are death and taxes” (he didn’t); that Stalin said: “The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic” (he didn’t); and that Edmund Burke said: “All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing” (he didn’t). And fake quotes spread quickly. In fact, I am tempted to observe that, as Twain said, a lie can be halfway round the world before the truth has its boots on — except that’s something else he never said.
A close relative of the fake quote is the “almost quote.” To stick with Twain, he never quite said that reports of his death were greatly exaggerated. If you’re going to quote him, check it and get it right. And while everyone knows that “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned,” that isn’t quite what the poet Congreve wrote either: again, check it and get it right. Perhaps the last word in these matters should go to an unlikely source — the legendary US baseball coach Yogi Berra, who found as much fame for his sporting prowess as for his unique deployment of the English language. Berra’s genuine quotable quotes are in a class of their own: “It was deja vu all over again,” “When you come to a fork in the road, take it,” “The future ain’t what it used to be,” and my personal favorite, when discussing the hugely popular Ruggeri’s restaurant in St. Louis — “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”Even Berra, however, became frustrated at the quantity of words attributed to him that never passed his lips, and was eventually moved to declare: “Half the things I said, I never said.”
*Ross Anderson is associate editor of Arab News.

Qalibaf, Jalili the likely front-runners in Iran election
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/June 13/2024
In two weeks, Iran will hold a presidential election to choose the successor to Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash last month. The world is closely observing the country’s political landscape, anticipating who will rise as the next president of the Islamic Republic and what impact, if any, this will have on Iran’s future domestic and foreign policies. Out of nearly 80 hopefuls who registered to run for the presidency, including four women, the Guardian Council has approved only six candidates. These individuals are permitted to campaign until June 27, just one day before the vote. The approved list of candidates comprises Masoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, Saeed Jalili and Alireza Zakani. This narrowed field reflects the council’s stringent criteria, as well as the high stakes of the upcoming election.
The selection criteria employed by the Guardian Council heavily emphasize adherence to the religious and revolutionary principles that underpin the Islamic Republic. Candidates are assessed on their commitment to these values, which are considered essential. This process ensures that only those who align with the core tenets of the revolution are allowed to stand for election. Only those who align with the core tenets of the revolution are allowed to stand for election. One striking aspect of the Guardian Council’s final selection is the preponderance of hard-liners among the approved candidates, with Pezeshkian, a member of parliament for Tabriz, being the only notable exception. The political landscape is thus heavily skewed toward hard-line ideologies, which dominate both the parliament and the legislative branches. Should a hard-liner be elected as president, it would result in a consolidation of power, with all branches of government operating under unified hard-line control, thereby intensifying the government’s conservative trajectory.
The hard-liners are known for their staunch adherence to the revolutionary principles of the Islamic Republic and for advocating for a more rigid interpretation and implementation of these ideals. They adopt a firmer stance toward the US and the West, rejecting any form of negotiation or compromise, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Concessions are perceived as a sign of weakness. Domestically, hard-liners push for the enforcement of strict religious laws and, regionally, their views align closely with the objectives of the senior cadre of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, further cementing their influence.
The Iranian government faces significant pressure on multiple fronts. Regionally, escalating tensions with Israel have led to a dangerous tit-for-tat exchange of military actions, heightening the risk of broader regional destabilization and international repercussions. Domestically, economic and political challenges add to the government’s burdens. In this context, the election of a hard-liner as president is viewed by some leaders as a strategic move to consolidate power across all branches of government, thereby providing a unified and potentially more resilient front against these multifaceted pressures.
When analyzing the likely outcome of the presidential election, the preference of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is the most critical factor. Recent historical patterns suggest that the supreme leader’s favored candidate often emerges victorious. For instance, Raisi was widely considered Khamenei’s preferred choice and even a potential successor. His election was perceived by many as more of a selection orchestrated by the ruling elite to ensure continuity and alignment with the supreme leader’s vision.
Both these candidates embody the ideological purity and loyalty valued by the supreme leader. Khamenei’s preference for presidential candidates is most likely rooted in the desire to maintain control and ensure that the president aligns with the overarching objectives of both himself and the IRGC. An ideal president in the eyes of Khamenei is one who does not overshadow or challenge the established agenda and does not take the spotlight or seek independent political power. This preference for loyalty and obedience over independent leadership is likely why figures such as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani, who are often seen as autonomous in their political ambitions, did not make the Guardian Council’s list.
Among the six approved candidates, Qalibaf and Jalili stand out as the most likely to align with the supreme leader’s criteria. Qalibaf, a principlist within Iran’s political spectrum, has demonstrated unwavering loyalty to Khamenei. His career trajectory, from serving in the IRGC to becoming the first military commander elected as mayor of Tehran and later the speaker of the Iranian parliament, underscores his deep-rooted connections and endorsements from the highest echelons of power.
Similarly, Jalili, an ultraconservative and former chief nuclear negotiator, has significant credentials, including running the supreme leader’s office for several years. He is often referred to as “a living martyr,” having lost a leg during the Iran-Iraq War while he served in the Basij. Jalili was also Khamenei’s personal representative on the Supreme National Security Council. Both these candidates embody the ideological purity and loyalty valued by the supreme leader, making them strong contenders in the upcoming election.
In a nutshell, the election in Iran comes at a critical juncture, especially following the sudden death of Raisi. The Guardian Council’s stringent vetting process has narrowed the candidates to six, predominantly hard-liners, underscoring the government’s emphasis on loyalty to revolutionary principles and the supreme leader. This likely consolidation of conservative power could further entrench Iran’s hard-line stance both domestically and internationally. Candidates like Qalibaf and Jalili, who demonstrate unwavering loyalty and ideological alignment with Khamenei and the IRGC, are favored.
*Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh

How Hamas Is Trying to Shape the “Day After” in Gaza
Ehud Yaari/The Washington Institute/Jun 13, 2024
A detailed look at what the group has been telling other Palestinians as it maneuvers to retake a role in the wider national movement and rebuild its forces.
Over the past few weeks, Hamas leaders have been engaged in talks with other Palestinian factions and select Arab states to find a formula for postwar governance in the Gaza Strip. Held mainly in Qatar and Egypt, the negotiations have not matured into a clear plan so far, but some forms of cooperation are emerging on the ground in parts of the embattled enclave.
Both the Hamas Executive Committee (based in Doha) and Yahya al-Sinwar’s circle of military leaders (currently hiding in Gaza tunnels) have apparently come to realize that the group cannot continue ruling Gaza on its own and must therefore look for partners. In particular, they fear that no foreign reconstruction funding will be forthcoming unless they help install a different type of administration nominally led by other Palestinian players. Yet they are also confident that they can deter Arab states and other foreign powers from sending forces to Gaza even if they are compelled to go underground indefinitely. In fact, senior Hamas officials such as Osama Hamdan are on record threatening to fight any non-Palestinian presence deployed to police or manage the Strip.
To balance these potentially conflicting objectives, Hamas officials have informed their interlocutors that they are willing to support the formation of either a “technocratic government” or one composed of factions that agree to Palestinian “reconciliation.” They have also insisted that security issues not be part of this government’s authority. In other words, Hamas is happy to let others shoulder civil responsibilities while it focuses on rebuilding its armed networks behind the scenes.
Intra-Palestinian Maneuvers
Hamas has held countless rounds of discussions with delegates from the rival Fatah movement over the past decade and a half, and none of them produced a viable compromise. The same is true for talks held during the current war by such disparate hosts as Algeria, China, Egypt, Lebanon, Qatar, and Russia. The conditions that Hamas has laid out for “national reconciliation” are clearly aimed at removing Fatah’s grip over the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization—namely, by establishing “unified leadership” over the PLO, forming a “consensus government” in the PA, and holding new presidential and general elections.
PA president Mahmoud Abbas has rejected these demands so long as Hamas refuses to abide by the PLO’s commitment to the Oslo Accords with Israel. (Hamas’s charter does not recognize Israel and has explicitly called for its destruction.) Yet Jibril Rajoub and certain other influential members of the Fatah Central Committee have advocated for cooperating with Hamas on some issues while deferring controversial matters to a later phase. In turn, Hamas is trying to widen the fissures within Fatah and find more officials who may be willing to go along with its vision for postwar Gaza.
On June 12, several ex-PLO and PA officials held an unprecedented meeting in Ramallah and signed an initiative calling for the inclusion of additional factions, meaning Hamas. The PA security services had blocked previous attempts to arrange such meetings in the West Bank. This time, Ahmed Ghneim and other veteran Fatah figures joined the challenge to President Abbas and were “encouraged” to retract their endorsement once their participation became known. Hamas also believes that many Fatah loyalists in Gaza—including thousands of former employees who still receive (reduced) salaries from the PA—may be willing to participate in a new system of governance there.
Toward that end, top Hamas figures have held intensive deliberations with senior Fatah official Mohammad Dahlan’s “Reformist Democratic Current” since the war began, initially focusing on the coordination and distribution of aid in Gaza with financing from the United Arab Emirates. They have also established “Emergency Committees” in various parts of the Strip.
A former security chief in Gaza until 2007 and a long-reputed foe of Hamas, Dahlan was expelled from Fatah in 2011 and charged with playing a role in the claimed “assassination” of PLO chairman Yasser Arafat. He now resides in Abu Dhabi and enjoys support from the Emirati ruling family. Although he has often declared that Gaza’s future should be “No Abbas, No Hamas,” the current war has seen him deploy trusted assistants (e.g., Samir Masharawi and Majed Abu Shamaleh) to Egypt to orchestrate aid deliveries while empowering his top confidant in Gaza, Osama al-Fara, to keep in close touch with local Hamas commanders. Meanwhile, his ally Nasser al-Qudwa—a former PA foreign minister—maintains close contacts with Hamas in Qatar. Both Dahlan and Qudwa are now publicly arguing that the Gaza crisis cannot be solved without Hamas’s participation or, at least, consent. A similar stance has been attributed to Marwan Barghouti, the popular Fatah leader who is serving a life sentence in an Israeli jail and is a potential candidate for release if the parties reach a deal for swapping hostages and prisoners.
Nevertheless, Dahlan has remained evasive about openly partnering with Hamas once hostilities subside. He apparently believes it is still too early to commit himself despite pursuing limited humanitarian and civil cooperation with the group on the ground. For Hamas, a deal with Dahlan would carry the promise of major Emirati reconstruction funding given his ties with Abu Dhabi.
In the meantime, Hamas has already convinced certain smaller PLO factions to get on board with its postwar model. Under the Damascus-based Jamil Mazhar, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine has turned into a de facto junior partner of Hamas in recent years despite its secular left-wing doctrines. Other minor factions—such as the communist Palestinian People’s Party, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and al-Saeqah—have expressed support for a broad Gaza government with Hamas as its primary backer. Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other armed groups that fight alongside Hamas have accepted this objective as well.
With generous help from Qatar, Hamas also started a campaign in March asking unaffiliated Palestinian activists from Arab countries and the diaspora to press for a collaborative Hamas role in postwar Gaza. Their main idea for promoting this plan is to convene a “Palestinian National Congress” with hundreds of delegates. Preparatory meetings have already been held in Britain, Lebanon, Kuwait, and Qatar, and more are planned for the United States, Spain, Belgium, Australia, and France. This month’s meeting in Doha was chaired by Azmi Bishara, a former Israeli parliamentarian who fled the country in 2007 due to fears that he would be prosecuted for providing information to Hezbollah during the 2006 Lebanon war. Now employed by a Qatari government research center, he oversaw the meeting’s adoption of resolutions that called for replacing the current PLO leadership with a new unified command—or creating a separate rival body to undermine the Fatah-dominated PLO.
Naturally, the PLO has condemned these calls and accused Bishara and his colleagues of being “supported and funded by regional circles.” Yet no other faction echoed this condemnation aside from the tiny “Popular Struggle Front,” demonstrating Abbas’s isolation and the growing appeal of Hamas’s proposals.
Conclusion
With thousands of its fighters still alive, Hamas is feverishly searching for new ways to stay in charge once a ceasefire is in place. Behind the facade of a Palestinian alliance, it has offered to relinquish civilian control—but only for the sake of refreshing its military arsenal, rebuilding its tunnel networks, and recruiting fresh manpower. If Palestinian factions not directly involved in the war agree to provide such cover by forming a new Hamas-backed administration, it would make Israel’s continued task of pursuing the group’s fighters much more complicated. Even if Hamas was not formally part of said government, the flow of international aid to such a body would still benefit Hamas’s armed “wing,” which has invented many methods to cut profits from the local economy over the years. For example, according to estimates by the author and other researchers, the group has already gleaned around $120-200 million from taxing humanitarian convoys during the current war. To prevent the implementation of this Hamas plan for the “day after,” the United States and other Western nations could advise Arab states, the PA, and other Palestinian actors not to lend a hand to the group’s political resurrection. The following measures may be particularly effective:
Donor states could warn any Fatah members who contemplate an arrangement with Hamas that cooperating with a designated terrorist organization has consequences. The UAE is currently the largest Arab provider of aid to Gaza and has a long tradition of combating the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’s ideological parent group. As such, it may be willing to pump the brakes on any deal between Dahlan and Hamas. Egyptian president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi should be put on notice that there will be a price to pay (e.g., regarding congressional oversight of annual U.S. military assistance) if his intelligence services and army personnel keep facilitating weapons smuggling to Hamas through Rafah’s cross-border tunnels.Qatar should be asked to condition its aid to Gaza on barring Hamas from any role in the territory’s postwar administration.Israel should change its declared policy and accept that a “revitalized” PA, once ready, will necessarily be invited to take over Gaza. Jerusalem should also commit to help with the territory’s reconstruction. This includes revisiting its objection to building a port in the Strip—a project that has attracted interest from Saudi Arabia. In the wake of the October 7 massacre, the idea of Hamas playing a role in Gaza’s governance is intolerable. A firm Western statement to this effect—perhaps in a forum like this week’s G7 summit—would go a long way toward pouring cold water on the terrorist group’s aspirations to dominate the “day after.”
**Ehud Yaari is the Lafer International Fellow at The Washington Institute and a Middle East commentator for Israel’s Channel 12 television.

Eid al-Ghadir: A Renewed Debate for Iraq's Shia Politicians
Waqas al-Kadi/The Washington Institute/Jun 13, 2024
Muqtada al-Sadr’s recent attempt to designate Eid al-Ghadir a national holiday has sparked fierce debates and threatens to further destabilize the Iraqi political system in the coming months.
For centuries, Shia and Sunni scholars across the Muslim world have failed to reach a consensus on Eid al-Ghadir and its religious significance to Islam. This is true in Iraq as well, but due to the precarious and often tense relationship between the Shia and Sunni communities in the country, the Iraqi religious discourse has largely refrained from debating the issue publicly in order to avoid enflaming sectarian divisions. Scholars Shia and Sunni alike understand that this contentious issue carries inherent risks, and while they may discuss the topic of Eid al-Ghadir extensively in private, moderate Sunnis and Shias dismiss it in pursuit of peaceful coexistence rooted in the innate nature of civil society. However, political dynamics in Iraq are shifting rapidly, and Eid al-Ghadir has now become a matter of open debate among the country’s main political factions. The prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s recent attempt to designate Eid al-Ghadir a national holiday has sparked fierce debates and threatens to further destabilize the Iraqi political system in the coming months.
Shias celebrate Eid al-Ghadir on the 18th of Dhu al-Hijjah every Islamic year, marking the anniversary of the Prophet Muhammad’s sermon at a place called Ghadir Khumm, located between Mecca and Medina. During the return of Muslims from the Farewell Pilgrimage in 10 AH, the Prophet said, "Of whomsoever I am the mawla (master), Ali is his mawla." Shias interpret this as the Prophet’s designation of Ali ibn Abi Talib as his successor. Sunnis respond by acknowledging Ali's virtue and status but argue that the Prophet’s statement was a response to complaints from some soldiers in Yemen about Ali’s perceived aloofness.In mid-April 2024, Muqtada al-Sadr called for Eid al-Ghadir to be declared a national holiday. While this proposal has drawn much attention from politicians, the media, and the general public, it is not the first of its kind. Ammar al-Hakim, another Shia cleric and politician, made a similar call in 2016, in a motion that secured 170 signatures in Parliament.
Nothing happens in Iraq by chance. Political actors move subtly, forming alliance and moving against their rivals in calculated moves. Sadr’s timing for the Eid al-Ghadir holiday proposal comes months before the end of Muhammad Shia' al-Sudani’s term as Prime Minister. Sadr’s recent activities, including renaming his movement the "Shia National Movement," suggest he is preparing for a significant return through the upcoming parliamentary elections, according to a Reuters report. Sadr likely aims to create a parliamentary bloc capable of forming the next government, after failing to do so two years ago without his competitors in the Coordination Framework.
Although religious figures and politicians have long feared that discussing Eid al-Ghadir would fuel Shia-Sunni conflict, Sadr’s call to make Eid al-Ghadir a holiday is not directed against the Sunnis in Iraq. Instead, his current political machinations reflect a Shia-on-Shia power struggle and Sadr’s attempt to embarrass the State Administration Coalition, which has pledged to Washington to adhere to relatively non-sectarian standards in exchange for agreed political gains. Sadr urged his supporters last May to chant "No, no America" to convey a message to those negotiating with the Americans, implicitly accusing Sudani’s government of betraying the Shia cause by describing MPs opposing the holiday as "enemies of Muhammad and Ali."
Sadr used the same tactics against his opponents in the Coordination Framework that they used to thwart his attempts to form a government after the 2021 elections, despite his movement securing the most parliamentary seats. The Framework waged an organized smear campaign against Sadr, sometimes taking on ideological dimensions, accusing him of weakening the Shia component and handing power back to the Sunnis due to his alliances with Sunni and Kurdish parties, even though he severed ties with them abruptly. Others went further, suggesting Sadr would not oppose normalization with Israel to secure his rule. Their media circulated clips of the kidnapped Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov discussing her visit to Sadr City and Muqtada al-Sadr’s character.
After Sadr’s stunning defeat in 2022 at the hand of the Coordination Framework, he suggested that he would be withdrawing from politics. It appears however that he has merely been waiting for the opportunity to retaliate. Although Sadr is driven by certain ideological convictions, he is also opportunistic and politically pragmatic. Aware that Iran is the main player in today’s Iraq, he is hoping to woo Iran by positioning himself as a defender of Iraq’s Shia. During a recent meeting between Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the “Axis of Resistance” in the wake of President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral, Iranian leaders expressed dissatisfaction with the armed factions tied to the Coordination Framework Through Sadr’s current posturing as the “true” advocate for the Shia population, he is presenting himself as a reliable alternative to Tehran’s current partners in Iraq. However, this move has serious repercussions, as Sadr undermines his movement’s Arab identity and its previous opposition to Iranian interference in Iraqi politics.
Sadr’s recent power plays seem to be miscalculated in other ways as well. The Coordination Framework forces are fully aware of Sadr’s ambitions, so they have agreed to engage with him in a game of cat and mouse, raising sectarian demands to empower the "Shia" component. MP Ali Turki al-Jamali from the Sadikoun parliamentary bloc, affiliated with the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq militia, called for renaming Iraq “the Alawi State” and demanded changes to the curriculum to remove praise for certain Islamic figures, referring to the Rashidun Caliphs, whom he publicly cursed on a TV channel affiliated with the militia.
Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq has put the ball in Sadr’s court, knowing the danger of imposing a religious regime in Iraq similar to Iran’s Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, as Iraqi society, though conservative, is not inherently religious and historically resists any measures that restrict its freedoms.
Perhaps Sadr believes he has mastered the art of politics enough to maneuver his way to the top, but this is contrary to reality. He fell into a trap by escalating his rhetoric and belittling his opponents, including Shia scholars, as happened with the Saudi cleric Munir al-Khabbaz. Sadr attacked Khabbaz over a decade-old video criticizing Iraqi scholars' silence during the previous regime, calling for Khabbaz to leave Iraq and return to Taif. The Coordination Framework media seized on Sadr’s bombastic language, labelling it as a radical attempt to expel Shia scholars from Najaf. Such an accusation could spur retribution against Sadr’s followers and potentially even Sadr’s assassination. Should violence break out between the various Shia political blocs, the effects would be catastrophic for Iraq. As a Shia-majority country with a tenuous security situation, inter-Shia political feuding could quickly spiral out of control, threatening to involve Iraq’s other religious and ethnic groups and potentially leading to an uncontrollable escalation.