Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 09-10/2024
Nasrallah’s Former Bodyguard Killed on Damascus-Beirut Road
Two killed in Hezbollah rocket barrage toward Golan Heights
The alternative is nothing short of battles and years... The war is causing Hezbollah to lose its “first generation”!
2 killed in Israeli strike on Hezbollah vehicle in Syria
Israeli strike hits Mediterranean coastal city of Baniyas
'Al-Hodhod 2': Hezbollah releases new footage of Israeli bases
Israel-Hezbollah border clashes: Latest developments
Berri promises 'good news' on situation in south Lebanon
Berri stresses need for president before region map 'redrawn'
UNSCR 1701 Focal Point in Discussions Between Mikati and Lázaro
Makary: The Names of the Killed Journalists Were Added to the List of Those to Be Compensated
Council of Ministers: Postponement of Military School Candidates’ File
Opposition announces two suggestions for electing president
Iran president-elect reiterates support for Hezbollah
Geagea rejects 'showoff' dialogue, urges Berri to call for open-ended electoral session

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 09-10/2024
What we know about the rocky 'roadmap' to a Gaza truce
Dozens killed by Israeli strike on tents housing Palestinians, Palestinian Red Crescent says
Israeli forces kill Palestinian boy in West Bank, says Palestinian Health Ministry
Heavy Israeli bombardment in Gaza City forces medical facilities to close as thousands flee
Intelligence chiefs hold Doha summit in effort to close hostage deal
White House warns Iran against meddling in Gaza protests in US
UN experts say famine has spread throughout Gaza
Israel’s defense minister OKs plan to start drafting ultra-Orthodox
Netanyahu criticizes Israeli army spokesperson over comments on Hamas’ future
A suspected attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels targets a ship in the Gulf of Aden
UN chief meets Pakistan's premier to discuss the situation of Afghan refugees following clampdown
Ex-army chief issues WW3 warning and brands 'new axis powers' more dangerous than the Nazis
Pope begs for new peace efforts after latest attacks in Ukraine, Gaza
NATO signs $700 million Stinger missile contract as it makes plans to boost arms production
US Congress Democrats debate Biden's viability as he vows to fight on
Tehran police close Turkish Airlines office after its employees defy Iran's headscarf law
Zelenskyy says world cannot wait until November election in US to take action to repel Putin

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 09-10/2024
Adopt Deterrence: US Waning Support for Ukraine, Israel and the Philippines Is a Threat to the Free World/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/July 09/2024
Is America about to get the president it deserves?/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/July 09, 2024
Israel’s war making Gaza uninhabitable for generations to come/Farah Al-Hattab/Arab News/July 09, 2024
The sinister pact between Israel and Europe’s far right/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/July 09, 2024
Israel moving fast to prevent a Palestinian state/Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/July 09, 2024
Netanyahu’s Washington Visit: Who Benefits Most?/Philippe Abi-Akl/This is Beirut/July 09/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 09-10/2024
Nasrallah’s Former Bodyguard Killed on Damascus-Beirut Road
This Is Beirut/July 09/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/07/131541/
Abu al-Fadl Qarnabash, the former key bodyguard of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, was killed on Tuesday afternoon in an Israeli airstrike that targeted his car on the Damascus-Beirut Road near the Ya’four-Saboura checkpoint, according to information obtained by This is Beirut. Qarnabash had a role within the pro-Iranian formation, in addition to his past role as Nasrallah’s bodyguard and his participation in several important military operations. Sources denied that the incident involved the death of a member of the Quds Forces. According to Lebanese media, a drone targeted a car near a military checkpoint on the Damascus-Beirut Road, close to the Saboura checkpoint. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that two Hezbollah members were killed in the Israeli strike. A military source noted that the car targeted by the drone had a Lebanese license plate.Minutes after this strike, a second airstrike targeted a car in Yahfoufa on the eastern mountain range on the Lebanese border from the Syrian side.

Two killed in Hezbollah rocket barrage toward Golan Heights
Jerusalem Post/July 09/2024
Earlier on Tuesday, the Fire and Rescue Authority stated that it had rescued two individuals who had been in a vehicle that had sustained a direct hit.  A husband and wife were killed after projectiles were fired from Lebanon to the Golan Heights, the police said on Tuesday. Earlier on Tuesday, the Fire and Rescue Authority stated that it had rescued two individuals who had been in a vehicle that had sustained a direct hit. Magen David Adom (MDA) said the two had been critically wounded.  MDA paramedics Aviv Attar and Tarek Heyb recounted what they saw upon arrival at the scene. "Immediately after the alerts, we received a report of two casualties and went to the scene. We arrived at the area, and the scene was difficult; we saw a vehicle that had received a direct hit, and in the front part of it, an unconscious man and woman who were critically wounded." Some 40 projectiles cross into Israeli territory. The IDF said some 40 projectiles had crossed from Lebanon into the center of the Golan Heights, with falls being detected. Fires erupted in eight different locations in the area following the fall of the projectiles, the Fire and Rescue Authority noted. Earlier on Tuesday, Yasser Nimr Qarbash, former bodyguard to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an alleged Israeli strike on the Damascus-Beirut highway.

The alternative is nothing short of battles and years... The war is causing Hezbollah to lose its “first generation”!
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/07/131567/
Janoubia/09 July/2024 (Translation from Arabic by Google)
The southern front is witnessing a “relative decrease” in the intensity of confrontations between “Hezbollah” and Israel after the major escalation last week, against the backdrop of Israel’s assassination, according to its announcement, of one of the party’s most prominent leaders, the “Aziz Unit” official, nicknamed “Hajj Abu Nimah,” in the Al-Housh area. He is the third high-ranking leader assassinated by Israel, bringing the number of those killed by Israel since October 8 to more than 361, including first- and second-class commanders and combat personnel.
Field sources accompanying Janoubiya pointed out that the “war of engagement and support” that Hezbollah opened nine months ago had begun to turn into a war of attrition for it, after it cost it a great price at the level of first-line leaders, or what is known as “ “The first generation,” which is a price he did not pay in the July aggression or in the years of the Syrian war in which he participated with all his might. She saw that “the party that drew up the rules of engagement at the beginning of the battle and imposed them on Israel has turned around today, and Israel has become the initiator and the one who controls the rules of the game. It launches its raids, assassinates the party’s leaders, kills its elite wherever it can, and destroys its camps and warehouses.” She pointed out that “it is not in Israel’s interest to close the war front with the party at the present time, especially after its repositioning in Gaza, as it faces an opportunity at the lowest price that may not be repeated in a comprehensive war. Within 9 months, Israel was able to assassinate 3 leaders like Imad Mughniyeh and Mustafa.” Badr al-Din and Hassan al-Laqis, who were killed during long years of the war of brains and the security and cold war between Israel and Hezbollah.”She explained that “the party has so far lost two of the leaders of its five military units, namely the commander of the Nasr unit, Sami Abdullah, nicknamed “Abu Talib,” who is the highest-ranking, and who was very close to the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Mr. Hassan Nasrallah, and commander of the unit, Aziz Abu Nima Nasser was also assassinated, and one of its most prominent leaders, Wissam al-Tawil, whose mission the party initially tried to conceal before revealing that he was the commander of the Radwan Force, was assassinated, in addition to a large number of second-tier leaders and military experts, who accumulated their experience between the 2006 war and the Syrian war that broke out in 2011. A large number of them were manufactured and trained in Iran’s specialized camps.”She believed that “the party needs long years and long wars to produce an alternative to these people and form a flock that enjoys their experience and can resist Israel’s military, security and combat capabilities, which have developed and are equipped to deal with the party’s style of fighting.” It concluded that “Israeli military and security superiority is translated on the ground, despite the party’s major operations, through the ability to destroy and hunt elites at the time and place it wants, and the most dangerous thing is that Israel possesses a vast security information bank.”

2 killed in Israeli strike on Hezbollah vehicle in Syria
Agence France Presse/July 09/2024
A war monitor said two people were killed Tuesday in an Israeli strike on a vehicle belonging to Lebanon's Hezbollah group in the Damascus countryside near the Lebanese border. Hezbollah has traded almost daily cross-border fire from Lebanon with the Israeli army since October in support of Palestinian ally Hamas, with Israel targeting operatives from the group in both Lebanon and neighboring Syria. "At least two people were killed and one was wounded in an Israeli drone strike on a Hezbollah car" on the Syrian side of the border with Lebanon, said Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The car was targeted near a Syrian army checkpoint, the monitor said. Since the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes in the country, mainly targeting army positions and Iran-backed fighters, including from Lebanon's Hezbollah. The strikes intensified after Palestinian militant group Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel sparked war in the Gaza Strip, before easing after an April 1 strike blamed on Israel hit the Iranian consular building in Damascus, sending regional tensions soaring. Israeli strikes have killed at least 24 Hezbollah fighters in Syria since the Gaza war erupted, according to an AFP tally. Last month, an Israeli strike targeted a convoy of tankers entering Lebanon from Syria, the Observatory had said, with Hezbollah announcing three dead and a source close to the group saying they were killed in east Lebanon's Hermel area. Earlier Tuesday, the Syrian defense ministry said an Israeli strike caused damage but no casualties near the coastal city of Baniyas, with the Observatory saying Iranian military advisers were based in the area. Israeli authorities rarely comment on individual strikes, but have repeatedly said they will not allow arch-enemy Iran to expand its presence in Syria. Syria's war has killed more than half a million people and displaced millions more since it erupted in 2011 after Damascus cracked down on anti-government protests. Hezbollah also fights in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad's government.

Israeli strike hits Mediterranean coastal city of Baniyas
Agence France Presse/July 09/2024
The Syrian defense ministry said an Israeli strike caused damage but no casualties near the Mediterranean coastal city of Baniyas on Tuesday. "At approximately 12:20 am (2120 GMT)... the Israeli enemy launched an air attack from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea... targeting a site near the city of Baniyas," the defense ministry said. It was the third such attack in the Baniyas area this year, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The British-based war monitor said "two Israeli missiles targeted at least two buildings, one of which belonged to an air defense battalion". It said Iranian military advisers were based in the area, a stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad's government. In May, the defense ministry said an Israeli air strike in Baniyas killed a girl and wounded 10 other civilians. Since the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes, mainly targeting army positions and Iran-backed fighters, including from Lebanon's Hezbollah. The strikes have intensified since Palestinian militant group Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel sparked war in the Gaza Strip. Israeli authorities rarely comment on individual strikes, but have said repeatedly they will not allow arch-enemy Iran to expand its presence in Syria.

'Al-Hodhod 2': Hezbollah releases new footage of Israeli bases
Naharnet/July 09/2024
https://youtu.be/QvKeNwNtphg
Hezbollah on Tuesday released a video dubbed al-Hodhod 2 showing footage captured by the group’s drones over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah had recently alarmed Israel by releasing a 10-minute video showing sensitive military and economic sites in northern Israel and its strategic city of Haifa -- a city far from the Israel-Lebanon border. That video was dubbed al-Hodhod 1. The new video released on Tuesday shows drone footage of Israeli intelligence and command bases and newly-established military bases and posts in Syria’s occupied Golan Heights. The video also promises a “third episode” of the drone footage series. Cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah has killed at least 497 people in Lebanon since Oct. 8 -- mostly fighters but also including 95 civilians -- according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the authorities. Tens of thousands of residents have also been displaced from the border areas in both southern Lebanon and northern Israel. Hezbollah started its attacks on Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians and the Hamas Movement as war broke out following the unprecedented October 7 attack on southern Israel. The group says it will not halt its attacks before Israel stops its war on the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hezbollah border clashes: Latest developments
Naharnet/July 09/2024
Israeli artillery shelled overnight al-Mahmoudiyeh in the Jezzine district, as civil defense members and firefighters worked to contain fires caused by Israeli strikes on Maroun al-Ras, Hanine, Aita al-Shaab, Shaqra and Rmeish. Hezbollah announced Tuesday the death of one of its members from Shaqra "on the road to Jerusalem," and released later in the day a video dubbed al-Hodhod 2 showing footage captured by the group’s drones over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah had previously alarmed Israel by releasing a 10-minute video showing sensitive military and economic sites in northern Israel and its strategic city of Haifa -- a city far from the Israel-Lebanon border. That video was dubbed al-Hodhod 1. The group targeted Tuesday the al-Marj post and surveillance equipment in the Hadb Yarine post in northern Israel, while an Israeli drone struck Aita al-Shaab and warplanes raided Rab Tlatine in south Lebanon, wounding three people. Since the war in Gaza began, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire over Lebanon's border, triggering global alarm about the potential for all-out war as fighting escalates. Hezbollah launched Saturday its "largest" air operation, sending explosive drones at a mountaintop Israeli military intelligence base in the annexed Golan Heights. The cross-border violence has killed at least 497 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 95 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the authorities. Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced from the border areas in both southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

Berri promises 'good news' on situation in south Lebanon
Naharnet/July 09/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday met with caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi and discussed with him the political developments and security situation. “Our visit to Speaker Berri today was important and necessary,” Mawlawi said after the talks. “We heard good news from him and I reassure the Lebanese that, God willing, there will be good news regarding the situation in south Lebanon, and God willing there will soon be a ceasefire in Gaza that would apply to south Lebanon, the south of heroes,” the minister added. Cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah has killed at least 497 people in Lebanon since Oct. 8 -- mostly fighters but also including 95 civilians -- according to an AFP tally. Tens of thousands of residents have also been displaced from the border areas in both southern Lebanon and northern Israel. Hezbollah started its attacks on Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians and the Hamas Movement as war broke out following the unprecedented October 7 attack on southern Israel. The group says it will not halt its attacks before Israel stops its war on the Gaza Strip.

Berri stresses need for president before region map 'redrawn'
Naharnet/July 09/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has underlined his refusal to invite MPs to a presidential dialogue boycotted by a significant number of lawmakers. In remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Berri added that he is seeking an “inclusive dialogue amid the extraordinary circumstances that Lebanon is going through,” noting that his call for dialogue is “not aimed at defeating or isolating a certain party.” “Enough with the segregation and disintegration. There are no choices before us other than consultations or dialogue, and only then we would be able to end the presidential vacuum within 10 days,” Berri went on to say. He also warned that “there is a dire need to elect a president so that he leads the Lebanese delegation to the negotiations should there be a decision to redraw a new political map for the Middle East region.”

UNSCR 1701 Focal Point in Discussions Between Mikati and Lázaro
This is Beirut/July 09/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with Head of Mission and Commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Aroldo Lázaro at the Grand Serail on Tuesday morning. The discussions tackled the situation along the Blue Line, the cooperation between the Lebanese army and the international forces as well as the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701. The Prime Minister also discussed with General Lázaro the report UNIFIL is preparing for the UN Secretary-General regarding the implementation of UNSCR 1701. Consultations on the subject are planned for late July. The Security Council will meet at the end of August for the annual renewal of UNIFIL whose mandate is set to be renewed on August 31.

Makary: The Names of the Killed Journalists Were Added to the List of Those to Be Compensated
Rayan Chami/This is Beirut/July 09/2024
Tuesday’s government meeting at the Grand Serail addressed 30 provisions. One key provision included adding the names of 4 martyred journalists to the list of names whose families will receive compensation through the council of the South. This initiative underscores the value of their sacrifice and ensures support for those left behind.

Council of Ministers: Postponement of Military School Candidates’ File
This is Beirut/July 09/2024
The Cabinet session, held Tuesday afternoon in the presence of Army Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun, decided to grant a one-week extension to continue consultations on the file of Military Academy students. An appropriate decision would be taken in this regard during the next session scheduled in a week. This issue constitutes a point of conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the military institution. Initially, Caretaker Minister of Defense Maurice Slim refused to ratify the results of the entrance exams to the Military Academy, which prompted some successful candidates to file legal appeals with the State Council. Slim then accused the army leadership of disclosing the names of the successful candidates and inciting them to file a complaint with the State Council regarding their admission, which the army leadership categorically denies. Slim, who is boycotting cabinet sessions due to the absence of a president of the Republic, met with Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail before the cabinet session. At the end of the meeting, he announced that he would propose a solution to include 55 new officer cadets in the previous class, thus increasing the number to 173. He believes that this initiative provides a legal framework to resolve the current situation, which he described as a ‘mess’.Regarding the electricity issue, according to information from our sister company, This is Lebanon News, the issue concerning the funds owed for the acquisition of Iraqi fuel was added as an additional item on the agenda of the session. In this context, Caretaker Minister of Energy Walid Fayad met with Mikati before the cabinet session. The Director-General of Electricite du Liban, Kamal Hayek, was summoned during the session to explain the situation in the sector, again according to sources from This is Lebanon News. Discussions on the Iraqi fuel issue are expected to continue between the concerned parties outside the framework of the Council of Ministers.
Speech by Najib Mikati
In his opening address at the session, Mikati affirmed that the priority remains the prevention of the expansion of the war, despite increasing concerns about the security situation in the south in light of the threats made by Israel against Lebanon.
He also emphasized that friendly countries continue to express their interest in Lebanon and their willingness to help prevent the expansion of the conflict. In this regard, he mentioned his recent meetings with the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, and the Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin. Mikati reiterated Lebanon’s commitment to implementing all provisions of Resolution 1701 in their entirety and called for Israel to be compelled to abide by them as well. He also denounced ‘the information circulating in media and political circles about presumed post-war negotiations concerning the south as “irrelevant.” He called for preserving the Lebanese position by avoiding the spread of rumors on this matter. On the economic front, Mikati announced that the Cabinet would take “the necessary measures to address new developments in the electricity file.”The caretaker prime minister also stated that the Council of Ministers would examine ‘the issue of salary and compensation adjustments in the public sector with an administrative and financial team’. Furthermore, he emphasized that the information reported by the British newspaper, The Telegraph, about Hezbollah’s alleged weapons storage at Beirut Airport is a mere rumor and part of the psychological war waged against Lebanon.

Opposition announces two suggestions for electing president
Naharnet/July 09/2024
The opposition lawmakers on Tuesday announced two suggestions aimed at facilitating the election of a new president and ending the country’s long-running presidential vacuum. “MPs would meet in parliament and hold consultations, without an official invitation, institutionalization or any specific framework, out of keenness on respecting the rules related to the election of presidents stipulated by the Lebanese constitution,” the opposition proposed. “Consultations would not exceed a period of 48 hours, after which MPs would go -- regardless of the consultations’ outcome -- to an open-ended electoral session with successive rounds until a president is elected, as per the constitution,” the opposition added. Another suggestion would be for Speaker Nabih Berri to “call for a presidential election session under his chairmanship,” the opposition said. “Should no election take place in the first round, the session would remain open and MPs and blocs would hold consultations outside parliament’s hall for a period not exceeding 48 hours, after which they would return to the hall for voting in successive rounds not exceeding four rounds daily … until the election of a president,” the opposition added. “All parties would commit to attending the rounds and securing quorum,” it said.

Iran president-elect reiterates support for Hezbollah
Agence France Presse/July 09/2024
Iran's president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian has reaffirmed the Islamic republic's support for Lebanon's Hezbollah group and condemned Israel's actions against Palestinians. The statement, issued Monday to Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the IRNA official news agency, was one of the first foreign policy comments from Pezeshkian since his victory in Friday's presidential election runoff. Tehran provides financial and military support to Hezbollah, which was created at the initiative of Iran's Revolutionary Guards after arch-foe Israel overran Beirut in 1982 during Lebanon's civil war. In a reference to Hezbollah and allied groups, Pezeshkian said: "The support of the resistance is rooted in the fundamental policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran."He said he was confident the "resistance movement" would stop its arch-foe Israel's "warmongering and criminal policies" in Gaza, where Israel has for nine months been at war with Hezbollah's Palestinian ally, Hamas. Since the war in Gaza began, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire over Lebanon's border, triggering global alarm about the potential for all-out war as fighting escalates. Earlier Monday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said Tehran "will not hesitate to support the Lebanese nation" and Israel "must be aware of the consequences of any adventurous action in the region, especially towards Lebanon."Reformist Pezeshkian defeated ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, in the election which was brought forward after the death of president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. After the vote, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the election result was a "clear message of demand for change and opposition" from the Iranian people. On Saturday Nasrallah congratulated Pezeshkian on his election victory and emphasized Tehran's role as a "strong" supporter of regional "resistance" groups. The Shiite Muslim movement is a key part of the Axis of Resistance -- an alliance of pro-Iran armed movements that oppose Israel and the United States. The alliance also includes Yemen's Houthi rebels and fighters in Iraq, as well as Hamas.

Geagea rejects 'showoff' dialogue, urges Berri to call for open-ended electoral session
Naharnet/July 09/2024
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday noted that the LF and the opposition are in “constant dialogue among each other.”“This dialogue produced agreements over a first candidate and a second candidate. We are also in an open dialogue with the rest of the parliamentary blocs in an effort to elect a president in line with the constitutional texts,” Geagea said in a statement. “This dialogue is taking place on a constant basis, but the difference is that it is totally free of extravaganza and parades,” Geagea added. “We will not accept, under any circumstances, to be part of those who are creating constitutional norms through inventing an official dialogue table that precedes the election of a president,” the LF leader emphasized. He added that those who want a “showoff and unconstitutional dialogue table” are free to take part in it. “But what’s more important is for Speaker (Nabih) Berri to call for an open-ended session with successive rounds until the election of a president. Had there been commitment to the constitution from the very beginning, we would not have reached the current situation,” Geagea said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 09-10/2024
What we know about the rocky 'roadmap' to a Gaza truce
Agence France Presse/July 09/2024
Qatari and Egyptian mediators are cajoling Israel and Hamas towards negotiations on a plan to end their war, which has left tens of thousands dead.
U.S. President Joe Biden first outlined in late May what he called an Israeli initiative for a truce and hostage release deal. Mediators are now embroiled in secret contacts with both sides, who have launched diplomatic barbs ahead of this week's talks.
Here is what is known about the efforts:
Why now?
After failed bids to end the war, the international clamor for a ceasefire has grown. Since the October 7 Hamas attacks, much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble and its 2.4 million people are surviving on sporadic aid deliveries. The United Nations says children are dying of starvation. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says nothing will stop the quest to eradicate Hamas and return the hostages. But he is battling domestic opposition as well as international pressure, including from his main ally the United States. Hamas has meanwhile suffered heavy losses since the October 7 attack on Israel that allegedly resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. Hamas also seized 251 hostages, 116 of whom remain in Gaza, including 42 the Israeli army says are dead. Israel's military retaliation has killed at least 38,243 people in Gaza, also mostly civilians, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
The plan
Biden said on May 31 that Israel was proposing a three-phase "roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages."PHASE ONE: The first, six-week phase would include "a full and complete ceasefire; a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza; a release of a number of hostages -- including women, the elderly, the wounded -- in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners," said Biden. PHASE TWO: If the two sides agree, they will move into negotiating "a permanent end to hostilities," Biden said. It would include the release of all living hostages and Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza. Biden said as long as negotiations continue, so will the ceasefire. Qatari mediators have focused on pushing a permanent end to hostilities while Egypt has been more involved in preparing a hostage swap and getting aid into Gaza, officials said. PHASE THREE: Biden promised a "major reconstruction plan for Gaza" and the return of dead hostages' remains in the third phase. The United States has promised involvement but diplomats say the Gulf states will play a key role.
Getting started -
Opening even indirect talks will already be an achievement. "Given the hatred and mistrust between the parties, the biggest challenge will be getting them to take the plunge into talks," said a diplomat following the mediation. "There is no guarantee." After Israel's Mossad intelligence chief, David Barnea, went to Doha last week, Netanyahu's office emphasized that "gaps" remain. But Barnea will return this week and the Shin Bet intelligence chief has been in Cairo with U.S. Central Intelligence Agency director William Burns. The CIA chief met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Tuesday and is expected in Doha on Wednesday. Netanyahu is maintaining tough demands. "Any deal will allow Israel to resume fighting until all of the objectives of the war have been achieved," his office said. The deal has to guarantee "no smuggling of weapons to Hamas from Egypt" and "no return of thousands of armed terrorists to the northern Gaza Strip," it added. Hamas, which has sought a withdrawal of Israeli forces but eased demands that Israel commit to a permanent ceasefire, accuses Netanyahu of seeking to torpedo truce efforts. Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh has warned that Israel's latest offensive against Gaza City and Rafah risked returning "the negotiating process to square one."
- The stakes -
Both sides have a lot to lose if the conflict goes on. Biden warned his ally that "indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of 'total victory' will... only bog down Israel in Gaza, draining the economic, military and human resources, and furthering Israel's isolation in the world." Hamas is fighting for its existence but believes it can survive, according to experts. Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a Middle East specialist at think tank the Atlantic Council, said Israel could not wipe out Hamas. "No viable immediate alternatives exist to challenge the group's monopoly, due to both Israeli war-planning failures and the deep entrenchment of Hamas in Palestinian society," he said.

Dozens killed by Israeli strike on tents housing Palestinians, Palestinian Red Crescent says
AFP/July 09, 2024
GAZA: A Gaza hospital source said at least 10 people were killed and dozens wounded Tuesday in a strike on a school turned shelter for displaced Palestinians, the fourth such attack in four days. The strike hit the gate at the Al-Awda school in Abasan, near the southern city of Khan Yunis, said the source at Nasser hospital in Khan Yunis where victims were taken. There was no immediate comment from Israel, which has acknowledged carrying out three other strikes since Saturday on Gaza schools used as displacement shelters. At least 20 people were killed in these attacks, according to officials in the Hamas-run territory. Israel said all three strikes targeted militants hiding in the schools. On Saturday, an Israeli strike hit the UN-run Al-Jawni school in Nuseirat, central Gaza, killing 16 people, according to the territory’s health ministry. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said 2,000 people were sheltering there at the time. The following day a strike on the church-run Holy Family school in Gaza City killed four, according to the civil defense agency. The Latin Patriarchate, owners of the school, said hundreds of people had packed the grounds. Another UNRWA-run school in Nuseirat was hit on Monday, with a local hospital saying several people were taken for treatment.Israel said it targeted “several terrorists” using the school for cover. Hamas has denied Israeli claims that it uses schools, hospitals and other civilian facilities for military aims. According to UNRWA, more than 500 people have been killed in schools and other shelters it runs in Gaza since the war started on October 7 with the Hamas attack on Israel.

Israeli forces kill Palestinian boy in West Bank, says Palestinian Health Ministry
Reuters/July 9, 2024
Israeli forces killed a 13-year-old Palestinian boy near the West Bank city of Ramallah on Tuesday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. The Israeli military said its forces had fired on Palestinians who were hurling rocks at their vehicles. The boy, named as Ghassan Gharib Zahran, was shot in the town of Deir Abu Mash'al in the occupied West Bank. The official Palestinian WAFA news agency reported that Israeli forces opened fire on a number of children, shooting and critically wounding Zahran. He was transferred to the Palestinian Medical Complex in Ramallah where he succumbed to his wounds shortly after. The Israeli military said in a statement a number of Palestinians "hurled rocks at Israeli vehicles adjacent to the area of Deir Abu Masha'al. Israeli security forces at the scene responded by firing toward the terrorists. As a result, one of the terrorists was hit." Violence in the West Bank has been escalating for more than two years, but picked up in intensity since Hamas fighters based in the coastal enclave of Gaza led an attack on Israel last October.

Heavy Israeli bombardment in Gaza City forces medical facilities to close as thousands flee
WAFAA SHURAFA and SAMY MAGDY/DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP)/July 9/2024
Heavy Israeli bombardment shook Gaza City on Tuesday as thousands of fleeing Palestinians searched for shelter and medical facilities were forced to shut down in the latest offensive in the territory's north. Separately in southern Gaza, an apparent Israeli airstrike on a school where displaced people were sheltering killed at least 19 people and wounded dozens more, according to Palestinian health officials, who said the toll was likely to climb. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. Israel’s new ground assault in Gaza's largest city is its latest effort to battle Hamas militants regrouping in areas the army previously said had been largely cleared. Large parts of Gaza City and urban areas around it have been flattened or left a shattered landscape after nine months of fighting. Much of the population fled earlier in the war, but several hundred thousand Palestinians remain in the north. “The fighting has been intense,” said Hakeem Abdel-Bar, who fled Gaza City’s Tuffah district to the home of relatives in another part of the city. He said Israeli warplanes and drones were “striking anything moving” and that tanks had moved into central districts. There was no immediate word on casualties. Families whose relatives were wounded or trapped were calling for ambulances, but first responders could not reach most of the affected districts because of the Israeli operations, said Nebal Farsakh, a spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent. “It’s a dangerous zone,” she said.
After Israel on Monday called for an evacuation from eastern and central parts of Gaza City, staff at two hospitals — Al-Ahli and the Patients Friends Association Hospital – rushed to move patients and shut down, the United Nations said. Farsakh said all three medical facilities run by the Red Crescent in Gaza City had closed. Scores of patients were transferred to the Indonesian Hospital in northern Gaza, which itself was the scene of heavy fighting earlier in the war. “We do not know where to go. There is no treatment and no necessities for life," said Mohammad Abu Naser, who was being treated there. “We are dying slowly.” The Israeli military on Tuesday said it had told hospitals and other medical facilities in Gaza City that they did not need to evacuate. But hospitals in Gaza have often shut down and moved patients at any sign of possible Israeli military action, fearing raids. In the past nine months, Israeli troops have occupied at least eight hospitals, causing the deaths of patients and medical workers along with massive destruction to facilities and equipment. Israel has claimed Hamas uses hospitals for military purposes, though it has provided only limited evidence.
Only 13 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals are functioning, and those only partially, according to the U.N.’s humanitarian office. Israel’s campaign in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’ Oct 7 attack, has killed or wounded more than 5% of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians, according to the territory’s Health Ministry. Nearly the entire population has been driven from their homes. Many have been displaced multiple times. Hundreds of thousands are packed into sweltering tent camps. The U.N. humanitarian office said the exodus in Gaza City was “dangerously chaotic,” with people instructed to flee through neighborhoods where fighting was underway. “People have been observed fleeing in multiple directions, not knowing which way may be safest,” the agency said in a statement. It said the largest U.N. bakery in the city was forced to close, and that the fighting had blocked aid groups from accessing warehouses.
Maha Mahfouz, a mother of two, said she fled twice in the past 24 hours. She first rushed from her home in Gaza City to a relative’s house in another neighborhood. When that became dangerous, she fled Monday night to Shati, a decades-old refugee camp that has grown into an urban district where Israel has carried out repeated raids.
She described vast destruction in the areas targeted in the latest raids. “The buildings were destroyed. The roads were destroyed. All has become rubble,” she said. Israeli airstrikes in the central town of Deir al-Balah and nearby refugee camps on Tuesday killed at least 14 people, including four children and a woman, according to officials at al-Aqsa Martyrs and al-Awda hospitals, where casualties were taken. One of the strikes hit a police station in an outdoor market in the Nuseirat refugee camp, killing four people and wounding two dozen, half of them women and children. At a hospital, a little boy cried, coughed and wiped his eyes as medics treated him on the crowded floor. The Israeli military has said it had intelligence showing that militants from Hamas and the smaller Islamic Jihad group were regrouping in central Gaza City. Israel accuses Hamas and other militants of hiding among civilians. In Shijaiyah, a Gaza City neighborhood that has seen weeks of fighting, the military said it had destroyed 6 kilometers (3 miles) of Hamas tunnels. Hamas has warned that the latest raids in Gaza City could lead to the collapse of negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage-release deal.
Israel and Hamas had appeared to narrow the gaps in recent days, with the U.S., Egypt and Qatar mediating. CIA Director William Burns met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on Tuesday in Cairo to discuss the negotiations, el-Sissi’s office said. More talks were to be held Wednesday in Qatar, where Hamas maintains a political office. But obstacles remain, even after Hamas agreed to relent on its key demand that Israel commit to ending the war as part of any agreement. Hamas still wants mediators to guarantee that negotiations conclude with a permanent cease-fire. Israel has rejected any deal that would force it to end the war with Hamas intact. Hamas on Monday accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of “putting more obstacles in the way of negotiations," including the operations in Gaza City. Hamas’ cross-border raid on Oct. 7 killed 1,200 people in southern Israel, most of them civilians, according to Israeli authorities. The militants took roughly 250 people hostage. About 120 are still in captivity, with about a third said to be dead. Israel's bombardment and offensives in Gaza have killed more than 38,200 people and wounded more than 88,000, according to the territory's Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians in its count.

Intelligence chiefs hold Doha summit in effort to close hostage deal
Jerusalem Post/July 09/2024
"There is an agreement over many points," a senior Egyptian source said, adding the negotiations will be back in Cairo on Thursday. Negotiations to secure a hostage deal and Gaza ceasefire will resume in Doha on Wednesday, with the intelligence chiefs of Egypt, the United States, and Israel in attendance, Egypt’s state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV and sources said on Tuesday. The Egyptian security delegation in Doha, led by intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, will be “on a mission to bring viewpoints closer between Hamas and Israel in order to reach a truce agreement as soon as possible,” Al Qahera News quoted a senior source as saying. “There is an agreement over many points,” the source said, adding the negotiations will be back in Cairo on Thursday. Mossad chief David Barnea will also attend the meeting, a source close to the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity told Reuters. US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns will also attend, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters after he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on Tuesday. Sisi affirmed in the meeting the Egyptian position “rejecting the continuation of military operations in the Gaza Strip,” the presidency said in a statement. Egypt and Qatar have been spearheading mediation in the nine-month-old war between Israel and Hamas in hopes of ending the fighting and securing the release of hostages in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Spearheading mediation
Senior US officials were in the region to push for a ceasefire after Hamas made concessions last week, but the Palestinian terrorist group said a new Israeli assault on Gaza on Monday threatened truce talks at a crucial moment, and it urged mediators to rein in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Sisi stressed in his meeting with Burns the need to take “serious and effective steps” to prevent the expansion of the Gaza conflict in the wider region, the presidency added. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, “We continue to work hard to pursue a ceasefire. “We have made progress. We certainly think we’re closer to a deal than we were a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean we’ll get one,” Miller said. Oftentimes, the hardest issues are saved for the final stretch of the talks, such as the ones taking place now, he said. “So even when a deal seems within reach, it doesn’t mean you’re going to get one. All we can do is continue to make clear that this deal is in the interests of Israel. It’s in the interests of the Palestinian people in Gaza. It would alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people in Gaza. So we hope we’re able to come to an agreement as soon as possible,” he said. At issue is a three-phase proposal US President Joe Biden unveiled on May 31, which would see a lull to the war doing its first phase in exchange for the release of 33 out of the 120 remaining hostages. Those set to be released are the humanitarian hostages, such as women, children, the elderly, and the sick. The question of a permanent ceasefire will be debated during that first stage, starting on day 16. Hamas had initially demanded that Israel promise to adhere to a permanent ceasefire and to withdraw the IDF from Gaza before it would release any of the hostages. It then rescinded that demand, a step that allowed the talks to move forward in the last week. Israel has rejected attempts to put in place a permanent ceasefire until the hostages are released and Hamas has been eliminated. It has insisted that a deal should take place within the framework of the Biden proposal and explained that this plan would allow it to achieve its war goals.
The stakes for a deal are high, not just because the hostage lives depend on it, but because Hezbollah has linked an end to its cross-border war with the IDF in the North to a Gaza ceasefire in the South. US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew said “the best thing for Israel, for the region, for the United States [and the] world would be a diplomatic resolution that avoids an all-out war [with Lebanon], which could be devastating in Israel and in Lebanon and could have massive effects, both in terms of human life and economic activity.” Lew spoke at an economic conference at Reichman University, as he recalled that US envoy Amos Hochstein had made multiple trips to the region to put in place a diplomatic resolution to the violence on the Israeli-Lebanese border. “If there is an all-out war, it will be a bad war, a costly war and it will not be something that leaves Israel in a better place or the region in a better place,” Lew said.
“That is why we are investing everything we have in the hostage negotiations,” he said.

White House warns Iran against meddling in Gaza protests in US
Reuters/July 9, 2024
The White House on Tuesday accused Tehran of trying to take advantage of Gaza-related protests in the U.S. and described such behavior as unacceptable, following a warning by the top U.S. intelligence official that Iran was trying to stoke discord in American society. The warning, issued earlier on Tuesday by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, said actors tied to Iran's government had posed as activists online, sought to encourage protests regarding Gaza and even provided demonstrators with financial support. In a press briefing, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters: "Americans across the political spectrum, acting in good faith, have sought to express their own independent views on the conflict in Gaza. The freedom to express diverse views when done peacefully is essential to our democracy." She added: "At the same time, the U.S. government has a duty to warn Americans about foreign malign influences ... We will continue to expose attempts to undermine our democracy in our society just as we are today." There was no immediate comment from Tehran.

UN experts say famine has spread throughout Gaza
Emma Farge/GENEVA (Reuters)/July 9, 2024
The recent deaths of several more children from malnutrition in the Gaza Strip indicate that famine has spread throughout the enclave, a group of independent human rights experts mandated by the United Nations said on Tuesday. Gaza health authorities say at least 33 children have died of malnutrition, mostly in northern areas which had until recently faced the brunt of the Israeli military campaign launched after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel. Since early May, the war has spread to southern Gaza, hitting aid flows into the enclave amid restrictions by Israel, which has accused U.N. agencies of failing to distribute supplies efficiently. In Tuesday's statement, the group of 11 rights experts cited the deaths of three children aged 13, 9-years-old and six months from malnutrition in the southern area of Khan Younis and the central area of Deir Al-Balah since the end of May. "With the death of these children from starvation despite medical treatment in central Gaza, there is no doubt that famine has spread from northern Gaza into central and southern Gaza," the experts said. Their statement, signed by experts including the Special Rapporteur on the right to food, Michael Fakhri, condemned "Israel's intentional and targeted starvation campaign against the Palestinian people". Israel's diplomatic mission in Geneva said the statement amounted to "misinformation". "Israel has continuously scaled up its coordination and assistance in the delivery of humanitarian aid across the Gaza Strip, recently connecting its power line to the Gaza water desalination plant," it added. In a Khan Younis hospital on Monday, Palestinian woman Ghaneyma Joma told Reuters she feared her son would die of starvation. "It's distressing to see my child ... lying there dying from malnutrition because I cannot provide him with anything due to the war, the closing of crossings and the contaminated water," she said, seated on the floor next to her motionless son, who had an intravenous drip attached to his wrist. Formally, whether or not a famine exists is determined by a U.N.-backed global monitor called the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which makes an assessment based on a set of technical criteria. Last month the IPC said Gaza remained at high risk of famine as the war continues and aid access is restricted. More than 495,000 people across Gaza - more than one fifth of the population - are facing the most severe, or "catastrophic", level of food insecurity, it said, down from a forecast of 1.1 million in the previous update.

Israel’s defense minister OKs plan to start drafting ultra-Orthodox
REUTERS/July 09, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant approved a plan on Tuesday to start drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, a move likely to further strain relations within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fractious right-wing coalition. His government relies on two ultra-Orthodox parties that regard conscription exemptions as key to keeping their constituents in religious seminaries and out of a melting-pot army that might test their traditional customs. Their political leaders are fiercely opposed to conscription at a time when Israel’s army is seeking to bolster its ranks amid the nine-month-old war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. After discussions with top military officials, Gallant approved their recommendations for a so-called first call-up of ultra-Orthodox men into the military over the coming month, the Defense Ministry said in a statement. The order is for an initial screening and evaluation to determine potential recruits, it said. Initial call-ups are sent to Israelis when they are over 16 years old and they usually begin military service at the age of 18. Israelis are bound by law to serve in the military for 24-32 months. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab minority are mostly exempt, though some do serve, and ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students have also been largely exempt for decades. But Israel’s Supreme Court last month ruled that the state must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students into the military. The long-time military waiver for the ultra-Orthodox has sparked protests in recent months by Israelis angry that the risk of fighting in Gaza is not being equally shared. For their part, ultra-Orthodox protesters have blocked roads under the banner “death before conscription.”

Netanyahu criticizes Israeli army spokesperson over comments on Hamas’ future
ARAB NEWS/July 09, 2024
LONDON: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has criticized the army’s spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, for saying that Hamas will continue to exist in the Gaza Strip for the next five years. According to local media reports, Netanyahu was angered by Hagari’s public remarks, which seemed inconsistent with the stance of the prime minister’s office. “Israel is planning a long war against Hamas,” Hagari said in an interview with the American ABC network on Monday, adding that he believes that “Hamas will remain with the ambition to be a terror organization” for years to come. “Will you and me be talking five years from now about Hamas as a terror organization in Gaza?” Hagari asked the host, then continued: “The answer is yes.” Reports from Israel’s Channel 14 indicated that Netanyahu criticized Hagari in private, saying: “There are also members of Hamas in the West Bank, but there is no Hamas rule. There are neo-Nazis in Germany, but there is no Nazi rule.”Netanyahu claimed that “Israel will eliminate Hamas’s rule and will not allow it to control the Gaza Strip again and threaten Israel from there.”This is not the first instance of Hagari diverging from the prime minister’s office. Late last month, he told Channel 13 that to truly achieve Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas in Gaza, an alternative must be introduced. Hagari described Hamas as an “idea” rooted in the hearts of Gazans, stating that “anyone who thinks it can be eliminated is wrong.”Netanyahu and the Israeli army issued a clarification following Hagari’s comments, stating that the army is “committed to achieving the goals of the war as defined by the Cabinet” and has been working on this “throughout the war, day and night, and will continue to do so.” Hagari’s remarks have intensified public debate in Israel regarding the feasibility of Israel’s goal to “destroy Hamas,” with many military analysts and observers expressing skepticism about achieving this objective.

A suspected attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels targets a ship in the Gulf of Aden
Michael Wakin/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/July 9, 2024
A suspected attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels targeted a ship in the Gulf of Aden on Tuesday, the latest assault blamed on the group on the crucial maritime trade route. The captain of the ship reported an explosion in close proximity to the vessel off the coast of Nishtun, Yemen, close to the country's border with Oman, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. The ship, whose name and flag were not released, and all crew are safe, the UKMTO said in a warning to mariners. The explosion took place in the farthest reaches of the waterway earlier targeted by the rebels, the center said. It did not elaborate on what caused the explosion, though the Houthis have been known to use drones and missiles as well as bomb-carrying drone boats. The Houthis did not immediately comment. It can take hours or even days before they acknowledge carrying out an attack. The last reported Houthi attack in the region took place June 28. The rebels have targeted more than 60 vessels by firing missiles and drones in their campaign that has killed a total of four sailors. They seized one vessel and sank two since November. U.S.-led airstrikes have targeted the Houthis since January, with a series of strikes on May 30 killing at least 16 people and wounding 42 others, the rebels say. The Houthis maintain that their attacks target ships linked to Israel, the United States or Britain as part of rebel support for the militant group Hamas in its war against Israel in the Gaza Strip. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the Israel-Hamas war — including some bound for Iran. On June 28, five missiles landed near a Liberian-flagged tanker, Delinox, as it traveled off the coast of the rebel-held port city of Hodeida, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. The following day, Houthi military spokesperson Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the group was responsible for two attacks on ships in the Red Sea, but it wasn't immediately clear which ship was the one reported by the information center. On June 27, a Malta-flagged bulk carrier, Seajoy, traveling through the Red Sea reported being hit in an attack carried out by the rebel group, which later said it used a done boat. Meanwhile on Tuesday, the office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed concern over 13 U.N. staffers and other aid workers who remain detained by the Houthi rebels and called for their immediate release. “We remain extremely worried about the well-being of 13 U.N. staff and a number of NGO employees who have been detained for over a month now by the ‘Ansar Allah’ de facto authorities in Yemen. We continue to be refused access to them," the office said in a statement. Of the 13 employees, the U.N. has said six work for the U.N.'s human rights agency.

UN chief meets Pakistan's premier to discuss the situation of Afghan refugees following clampdown
Munir Ahmed/ISLAMABAD (AP)/July 9, 2024
The head of the U.N. refugee agency met the Pakistani prime minister Tuesday to discuss the situation of Afghan refugees living in uncertainty since Islamabad began a persistent anti-migrant crackdown last year. Pakistan has long hosted an estimated 1.7 million Afghans, most of whom fled during the 1979-1989 Soviet occupation. More than half a million others escaped Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover in 2021, with thousands waiting in Pakistan for resettlement in the United States and elsewhere. Since the widely criticized clampdown started in November, an estimated 600,000 Afghans have returned home. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, who arrived in Pakistan on Sunday, spent two days meeting Afghan refugees. He posted on social media platform X: “I spent time with Afghan refugees whose resourcefulness is testimony to their strength — and to Pakistan’s long hospitality.” Grandi added that his visit aimed to “discuss how we can best support both amidst growing challenges.”Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif told the UN refugee agency head that Afghan refugees were treated with “exemplary respect and dignity” despite facing multiple challenges, according to a statement released by his office Tuesday. Sharif also urged the international community to "recognize the burden being shouldered by Pakistan while hosting such a large refugee population and demonstrate collective responsibility.”The prime minister also asked for help from UNHCR to repatriate the refugees in “a safe and dignified” manner. Also on Tuesday, Grandi met with Asif Durrani, the country’s special representative for Afghanistan. Durrani wrote on X that the two sides "expressed readiness to find a durable solution to the Afghan refugee problem, including their repatriation”. Pakistan had previously said the crackdown targeted those without valid documents regardless of nationality. U.N. agencies have decried the forced expulsion of Afghans from Pakistan, saying it could lead to severe human rights violations — including the separation of families and deportation of minors. Although Pakistan had been routinely deporting Afghans who came here without valid documents in recent years, the ongoing crackdown is unprecedented in scale. Since the crackdown, the neighboring Taliban-led government said it set up a commission to deal with repatriated nationals and has criticized Islamabad’s actions. Pakistan has also faced a surge in militant attacks on security forces and civilians alike, mostly blamed on Pakistani Taliban — a separate militant group but a close ally of the Afghan Taliban— straining the ties between the two countries. On Tuesday, an army captain was killed in a shootout with militants in North Waziristan, a district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province near the Afghan border, the military said. In a statement, it said two militants were killed and a search operation was still underway to find those involved in the exchange of fire. North Waziristan served as a base for Pakistani Taliban until a crackdown by the country's military killed or arrested most in recent years. Others fled to Afghanistan, where they have been living openly.

Ex-army chief issues WW3 warning and brands 'new axis powers' more dangerous than the Nazis
Sky News/July 9, 2024
A former army chief has warned members of NATO the world is facing "as dangerous a moment as any time that we've had since 1945" as he called on members to invest more into their arms. General Sir Patrick Sanders, who served as chief of the general staff until last month, told The Times that Russia, China and Iran were the "new axis powers", and a third world war could break out within the next five years if action was not taken. Politics live: Cameron attacked over 'greatest achievement' Arguing the countries posed even more of a threat than the Nazis in 1939, he said: "They are more interdependent and more aligned than the original axis powers were." But the military expert said the conflict was not a foregone conclusion if NATO members, including the UK, significantly improved their arms. "Most estimates will tell you that we've got somewhere between five and 10 years before Russia recapitalises and is able to pose the sort of threat that it did before the Ukraine war," said Sir Patrick."If we take the right steps now, if we address the threats and gaps we have in our capability, if we modernise our armed forces, if we make society and the UK more resilient, that's how we prevent it.
"If we do that, it's a low likelihood. If we don't, it increases the probability and it encourages Russia, China and Iran."
Armed forces 'not powerful enough'
Focusing on the UK, Sir Patrick said the armed forces were now not powerful enough to launch operations like the invasion of southern Iraq in 2003 or even the Falkland Islands in 1982. "Could you scramble together the two brigades that took the Falklands? Yes, of course we could," he said. "But could we get them there? Could we have the task force that made it possible and sustain it? No."And while the general would not reveal the size of current army stocks, he told the newspaper that the figure would "put the hairs up on the back of your neck". All 32 members of NATO are meeting in Washington this week to mark 75 years since the alliance's formation - including the UK's new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, who has pledged to conduct a review of defence within his first year of power. The war in Ukraine is set to top the agenda, framed by the latest Russian attack - this time on a children's hospital, killing at least 31 people.

Pope begs for new peace efforts after latest attacks in Ukraine, Gaza
VATICAN CITY (AP)/July 9, 2024
Pope Francis appealed for concrete new measures to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza Tuesday after attacks targeted a children's hospital in Kyiv and a school in Gaza. The Vatican press office issued a statement Tuesday expressing Francis’ pain over the new attacks and his “profound upset” at the spiraling of violence. “While he expresses closeness to the innocent victims and injured, he hopes and prays that concrete paths can be identified to put an end to these ongoing conflicts,” the statement said. Francis has frequently asked for prayers for the “martyred” people of Ukraine but tends to keep his appeals generic. He has also tended to take a balanced line toward the war in Gaza, frequently mentioning Israel and the hostages still held by Hamas alongside the suffering of Palestinians. A Russian missile struck the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital Monday, drawing international outcry. Russia denied responsibility, insisting it doesn’t attack civilian targets in Ukraine despite abundant evidence to the contrary, including Associated Press reporting. In Gaza, an Israeli strike last week on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians killed more than 30 people, according to local health officials. The Israeli military said that Hamas militants were operating from within the school.

NATO signs $700 million Stinger missile contract as it makes plans to boost arms production
Tara Copp And Lorne Cook/WASHINGTON (AP) /July 09/2024
NATO has signed a nearly $700 million contract to have member countries produce more Stinger missiles, one of many steps the alliance is pressing at its summit in Washington to get each country to boost its own weapons production capabilities.
Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the contract Tuesday at a Chamber of Commerce industry day focused on increasing NATO member countries' defense manufacturing capabilities to deter future attacks. “There is no way to provide strong defense without a strong defense industry," Stoltenberg said. The Stinger is a portable surface-to-air defense system that can be carried and fired by troops or mounted to a vehicle and used as short-range defense against aircraft. The Raytheon-produced system was one of the first weapons the U.S. shipped to Ukraine following Russia's 2022 invasion. The NATO summit is occurring against a backdrop of uncertainty: U.S. political divisions delayed weapons for Ukraine for months and the upcoming presidential election is raising concern that U.S. backing — with weapons and troops — in case of threats against member countries may not always be guaranteed. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has boasted during campaign speeches that he'd encourage Russia to do as it wished with NATO members that do not meet their commitment to spend 2% of their gross domestic product on defense.
Out of 32 NATO members, 23 are expected to meet the 2% commitment this year, up from just six before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Chamber of Commerce that Russia is now spending an estimated 7% to 9% of its GDP on defense. Estonia is spending more than 3% of its GDP on defense, but needs to do more to refill its stockpiles, Pevkur said. Since the invasion, the U.S. has provided more than $53.6 billion in weapons and security assistance to Ukraine. This support, at a time when the U.S. also is sending weapons to Israel and Taiwan, has strained the U.S. stockpile. The rest of the NATO members and other international partners have provided about $50 billion altogether in weapons and security assistance, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, an independent research organization based in Germany. National security adviser Jake Sullivan told Tuesday's gathering that for the first time ever, the NATO countries will each pledge to make plans to strengthen their own industrial defense capacity. He said this would help the alliance “prioritize production of the most vital defense equipment we would need in the event of a conflict." Two NATO officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to provide details that have not been announced publicly, said part of the summit is focused on having each member commit to submitting defense industrial plans over the next year on how they would boost internal production. The 32 members have widely varying defense industry sizes and capabilities, so each country's plan could vary widely, from partnering with industry to partnering with other countries, one of the officials said.

US Congress Democrats debate Biden's viability as he vows to fight on
Reuters/Hannah Sarisohn/July 09/2024
Asked whether Democrats were on the same page as he exited the meeting, US Representative Steve Cohen replied, "We're not even in the same book."Democratic US lawmakers huddled for nearly two hours on Tuesday, only to emerge without a consensus on whether to fall in line behind President Joe Biden's resolve to pursue his reelection bid. Democrats in the House of Representatives met behind closed doors at party headquarters after Biden defiantly rejected calls from a handful of members to end his campaign for the Nov. 5 election following a disastrous debate last month with rival Donald Trump. Asked whether Democrats were on the same page as he exited the meeting, US Representative Steve Cohen replied, "We're not even in the same book." No new public defections were on display, after a half-dozen members of the House of Representatives called on the 81-year-old Biden to step aside and allow someone else to face the Republican Trump, 78. "He just has to step down. He can't win," US Representative Mike Quigley, one of the six lawmakers who urged Biden to end his campaign, said on his way into the meeting. "My colleagues need to recognize that." While the discussion failed to heal the intraparty rift, many Democratic lawmakers left the meeting telling reporters that they either back Biden now or would if he was formally nominated at the party's convention in August. Democratic lawmakers, especially in the House, worry that Biden's struggles could damage their chances of capturing a majority in that chamber, which could serve as Democrats' sole bulwark against Trump should he prevail. Republicans hold a 220-213 majority in the House, and Democrats face a far tougher path to protect their 51-49 Senate majority, as they are defending multiple seats in Republican-leaning states.
Even some who support Biden staying the course have voiced concern about his chances since his halting June 27 debate performance, which raised fresh questions about his ability to mount a successful campaign and to keep up with a grueling job for another 4-1/2 years. The Biden campaign has scrambled to reassure nervous Democrats. The president called into MSNBC on Monday to say he was "not going anywhere," a message he repeated to donors on a private call later, according to two sources on the call. Biden also spoke with members of the Congressional Black Caucus, whose backing may help shore up his campaign given the importance of Black voters to the party's base. The caucus chairman, Representative Steve Horsford, said on Monday that he still supported Biden as the nominee. Some Democrats compared Tuesday's discussion to a family argument. Representative Lou Correa urged colleagues to keep voicing their opinions, adding, "This is democracy." Others expressed frustration that the party was focused on Biden's shortcomings rather than unifying against Trump. "It's a circular firing squad. It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen," said Representative Juan Vargas, who said he supported Biden. Senate Democrats were expected to discuss Biden during their weekly policy lunch meeting.
White house reacts
During Tuesday's briefing, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre acknowledged Democrats in Congress who are calling for Biden to step aside and said she "respects their view," but there's a long list of congressional members who have been clear in their support of the president. Jean-Pierre noted the support of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who have given their full support behind Biden. "[Biden] is going to focus on continuing to work on behalf of the American people, continuing to build on an unprecedented record that he's been able to get done with many of these congressional members that he's proud to have worked with," Jean-Pierre said. "But that's his focus right now, talking to more people."
Biden hosts NATO gathering
Biden was hosting a gathering of NATO leaders in Washington on Tuesday, giving him an opportunity to demonstrate he can still serve as a global leader, while Vice President Kamala Harris - seen as the most likely candidate to replace Biden if he were to stand down - was headed for Nevada, one of a handful of battleground states that may decide the election. Trump, who said during a Fox News appearance on Monday that he expected Biden to remain in the race, will hold a rally in Florida on Tuesday ahead of next week's Republican National Convention.
Biden has vowed to persevere, arguing that Trump poses a unique threat to democracy. Trump, who repeated multiple falsehoods during the debate, has falsely claimed that his 2020 loss was the result of fraud and has not committed to accepting this year's results if he loses. Democratic Senator Michael Bennet said he wants Democrats to unite on a campaign strategy by week's end - whether Biden remains on the ticket or not. "What I hope to see is, over the course of this week, our coming together on the kind of compelling and successful path forward that the American people need," he told reporters on Monday. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week found that one in three registered Democratic voters believed that Biden should quit the race, with 59% saying he is too old to work in government. However, the poll also found that none of his possible replacements fared better in a matchup against Trump. The poll showed Biden and Trump tied at 40% each.

Tehran police close Turkish Airlines office after its employees defy Iran's headscarf law
Amir Vahdat/TEHRAN, Iran (AP)/July 9, 2024
Police in Iran shut down the Turkish Airlines office in the capital of Tehran, Iranian media reported Tuesday, after female employees there apparently refused to wear the mandatory headscarf, or hijab, in an act of defiance of the country’s law. The semi-official Tasnim news agency said police officers went to the Turkish Airlines office in Tehran on Monday to issue what is called a first warning over the “non-observance of hijab” by the company's employees. However, the employees — who are Iranian nationals — reportedly “made trouble for the police officers,” prompting the closure. The Tasnim report said police subsequently sealed the office over the employees’ behavior. According to Tasnim, the Turkish Airlines office will be allowed to reopen on Wednesday and resume business as usual, something that the police did not confirm. The report further said that police would not seal any business due to the non-observance of hijab but issue first warnings. There was no immediate comment from the Turkish Airlines over the incident in Tehran. An open defiance of the headscarf law erupted into mass protests across Iran following the September 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the country’s morality police. While those demonstrations appear largely to have cooled, the choice by some Iranian women to remain uncovered in the street poses a new challenge to the country’s theocracy. Iranian authorities have over the past years shuttered hundreds of businesses across the country — from shops, restaurants to pharmacies and offices — for quietly allowing their female employees to forgo wearing the hijab. That reinforcement was intensified in the months running up to Iran’s presidential election in June to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi who died in a helicopter crash a month earlier. The fracas at the Tehran office of the Turkish Airlines took place on the same day as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Iran's President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian to congratulate him on his win in Iran's presidential runoff last week. Pezeshkian bested hard-liner Saeed Jalili in the election by promising to reach out to the West and ease enforcement on the country’s mandatory headscarf law after years of sanctions and protests squeezing the Islamic Republic. The state-run IRNA news agency quoted Tehran Prosecutor Ali Salehi as saying that no legal proceedings or ruling had been issued regarding the sealing the Turkish Airlines office in Tehran. Iran and Turkey have maintained good relations and in 2023, the volume of bilateral trade between the two stood at $5.4 billion. Turkey is also a popular tourist destination for Iranians, with some 2.5 million visiting last year. Turkish Airlines is a favored carrier among Iranians because of the shorter travel time to the United States and Canada, compared to other long-haul flights from Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.

Zelenskyy says world cannot wait until November election in US to take action to repel Putin
Matthew Lee, Ellen Knickmeyer And Eric Tucker/July 9, 2024
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that the world must not wait for the November presidential election in the United States to take action to repel Russia's offensive against his country. “It’s time to step out of the shadows to make strong decisions to act and not wait for November or any other months to descend. We must be strong and uncompromising all together," Zelenskyy said in a pivotal address during a NATO summit four months before an American election beset by new tumult following incumbent President Joe Biden's shaky debate performance two weeks ago.
He added that the president of the United States must be “uncompromising in defending democracy, uncompromising against (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and his coterie.”The visit to Washington was the latest in a series of trips for the Ukrainian leader, who has proven to be an adept navigator of international relations in defense of his war-ravaged country, publicly cajoling and sometimes loudly complaining to get the military assistance it needs to defend itself against Russia. But, as he attends this week’s summit of NATO leaders in Washington, his most coveted prize — membership in the military alliance — remains elusive. The European and North American countries making up NATO are in no hurry to admit Ukraine, especially while it is engaged in active hostilities with Russia that could drag them into a broader war. Zelenskyy, who was feted as a champion of democracy in Washington in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion but was forced to plead his case for aid to U.S. lawmakers just last year, found himself once again in the American capital as bridesmaid. At the NATO summit, he'll be trying to navigate a tumultuous American political landscape as Biden tries to show his strength on the world stage and ability to keep leading the alliance's most important member, even while fending off defections from fellow Democrats uneasy about his ability to lead the country for another four years. A NATO skeptic, Trump has criticized allies for not hitting defense spending goals and raised concerns in Europe about continued U.S. support for NATO and Ukraine. His Republican supporters in Congress were responsible for a monthslong delay in U.S. military assistance, which allowed Russia to gain ground against Ukraine's depleted forces.
The stakes for Zelenskyy have never been higher as he addressed a Reagan Institute audience that included some of the most senior congressional Republicans.
He got to Washington on Tuesday, a day after Russia unleashed its heaviest bombardment of Kyiv in almost four months and one of the deadliest of the war, which leveled a wing of Ukraine’s biggest children’s hospital. Against that backdrop, Zelenskyy, who will have a separate meeting with Biden on Thursday, again made an urgent appeal for additional air defenses shortly after arriving in Washington, writing on the social media platform X that “We are fighting for more air defense systems for Ukraine, and I'm confident we will succeed.”Hours before Zelenskyy's Tuesday night address, Biden announced to great fanfare that the U.S. and other NATO members will send dozens of air defense systems to Ukraine in the coming months, including at least four of the powerful Patriot systems it has been desperately seeking to help fight off Russian advances in the war. Speaking at an event celebrating the alliance's 75th anniversary, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged the West to keep sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine whatever the costs, saying the outcome of the war with Russia “will shape global security for decades to come.”But an invitation to join the alliance is not in the cards even as Russia’s latest strikes have galvanized support for his country. “We would like to see greater resolve in our partners and hear resolute responses to these attacks,” Zelenskyy said Monday in Poland before flying to the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meeting with Ukraine’s foreign minister on Tuesday, said the summit would further strengthen Ukraine’s ties to NATO and "its path to membership.” He noted the “despicable” Russian attack on the children’s hospital. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the hospital strike “pretty much sets the agenda for today’s meeting.”In the coming days, Zelenskyy will hear a chorus of support from countries that have poured weapons into his country, despite the recent damaging U.S. and European lags in greenlighting more aid. "It is critical that the world continues to stand with Ukraine at this important moment and that we not ignore Russian aggression,” Biden said in a statement late Monday, saying that U.S. support for Ukraine is “unshakeable.”“Together with our allies, we will be announcing new measures to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses to help protect their cities and civilians from Russian strikes,” Biden said. “The United States stands with the people of Ukraine.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, whose country is the second-richest in NATO, also expressed solidarity with Ukraine. “Germany stands unwaveringly by the side of the Ukrainians, especially in these difficult times,” he said. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that the U.S. would be announcing an additional $2.3 billion in security assistance for Ukraine, to include anti-tank weapons, interceptors and munitions for Patriot and other air defense systems. In a small first step as the summit kicked off Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said NATO allies would provide more than $7 million in personal protective gear, uniforms and boots specifically for female Ukrainian soldiers. However, the allies will once again stop short of offering a guaranteed timeline for Ukraine to enter NATO.
Instead, they will present Zelenskyy with what officials are calling a “bridge to membership” that is supposed to lay out specific tasks, including governmental, economic and rule-of-law reforms, that Ukraine must fulfill to join.But meeting those steps won’t be enough — NATO will not admit a new member until the conflict with Russia is resolved. Many in Ukraine see NATO membership as the only way to protect themselves from future Russian aggression in the event that the war ends. But the yearslong duration of the conflict, which has cost thousands of Ukrainian lives, has left many frustrated and skeptical that their country will ever join the Western alliance.While Zelenskyy has largely been a successful politician on the world stage, he struggles to maintain his popularity in Ukraine, which has decreased in part because of persistent questions about corruption, analysts say. At home, Ukrainians not only are demanding from their leader an effective defense against Russia but they want to see their government reformed with reliable institutions and without corruption.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 09-10/2024
Adopt Deterrence: US Waning Support for Ukraine, Israel and the Philippines Is a Threat to the Free World
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/July 09/2024
The US neglect of vital security issues, from waning support for Ukraine and Israel, to its refusal to acknowledge the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme, is inflicting serious damage to America's status as a global superpower.
America's alarming non-confrontational policy towards the mullahs -- even asking Europe not to censure Iran for its growing nuclear weapons program -- has been a mainstay of both the Biden and Obama administrations. Their encouragement of Iran to acquire nuclear bombs has led the mullahs and their proxies to expand their malign activities throughout the region. Biden's impotence has effectively invited Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that controls most of Lebanon, to escalate its attacks against Israel with the aim of opening a new front on Israel's northern border...
Another area where Washington's incompetent handling of key security issues is the Pacific, where apparent US aversion to upsetting the Communist dictatorship headed by Chinese President Xi Jinping has recently led to an increase in aggressive Chinese military conduct towards the Philippines as part of Beijing's efforts to expand its control over the South China Sea.
Washington's persistent dithering on China, as well as other vital issues of global security such as Ukraine, Iran, and failing wholly to back Israel fighting not only for its own existence but protecting freedom in the West from aggressive autocracies, will certainly lend encouragement to Putin and other dictatorial regimes in Beijing and Tehran that the US will not present a serious challenge to their efforts to expand their global influence.
If the current administration allows terrorists and aggressors to win, what message does that send to all terrorists and aggressors?
The only way for the US to reclaim its global stature as the leader of the free world, after having tried everything else, is finally to adopt deterrence: warn every US adversary that if it provokes Washington, the response to each of them and their regimes will be a cost they do not wish to contemplate.
Whether US President Joe Biden remains in office or not, his recent debate with former President Donald J. Trump and has exposed the global catastrophe that US policies under the current administration have wrought. Pictured: Biden participates in the presidential debate at CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Whether US President Joe Biden remains in office or not, his recent debate with former President Donald J. Trump and has exposed the global catastrophe that US policies under the current administration have wrought.
The US neglect of vital security issues, from waning support for Ukraine and Israel, to its refusal to acknowledge the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme, is inflicting serious damage to America's status as a global superpower.
Arguably the most damning examples of America's increasingly faltering grip on key foreign policy issues were Biden's recent decisions to slow-walk arms deliveries to Israel and failing to show sufficient solidarity for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In a move that will be interpreted by hostile states such as Russia, China and Iran as a sign of America's waning influence, Biden opted not to attend a two-day conference held in Switzerland to discuss the war in Ukraine.
One of the principal aims of the conference, titled the "High-level Summit for Peace in Ukraine", was to encourage a large number of countries to declare their support for Ukraine's sovereignty. Biden's decision to absent himself from the conference will be interpreted in Moscow and elsewhere to mean that Western support for Ukraine is on the wane.
As the summit's final communiqué declared, its purpose was to "enhance a high-level dialogue on pathways towards a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine."
Given Biden's constant declarations that his administration fully supports Ukrainian efforts to resist Russian aggression, the US president's presence was deemed vital to ensure the summit achieved a positive outcome.
The importance of Biden's personal participation at the summit was made clear by Zelensky beforehand, when he made a personal appeal to the American president that any no-show on his part would send a strong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Washington was not serious about helping Ukraine to achieve victory. The Ukrainian leader said that Biden's absence would not only "be applauded by Putin, personally applauded by Putin... it would be a standing ovation".
With Biden keeping his distance, it was perhaps unsurprising that the summit, which was attended by delegations representing 92 nations across the globe, fell well short of giving Zelensky the unequivocal declaration of support he was seeking.
A number of countries, including Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia, declined to sign the original draft declaration over concerns that the communiqué might appear to blame Russia for provoking the conflict. This meant only 80 of the countries attending the summit at the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock signed the final declaration.
The final statement declared support for the UN Charter and said "respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty... can and will serve as a basis for achieving a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
"We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties," it added.
Even so, the final declaration was something of a compromise. While it made mention of the "ongoing war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine", it also focused on other issues, such as protecting civilians and securing grain corridors, rather than laying down next steps for peace.
In Biden's absence, the summit unfortunately failed to produce the type of uncompromising demand Zelensky had sought, calling for Russia to withdraw its forces from all occupied Ukrainian territory -- including Crimea -- as the basic pre-condition for starting peace talks. Zelensky has also called for the formation of an international tribunal to try Putin's government for war crimes.
Even more grievous has been America's persistent refusal, in both the Obama and Biden administrations, to acknowledge the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme, as well as the wider threat Iran poses to the security of the Middle East, which has resulted in Iran now being in a position to enrich uranium to weapons grade virtually on demand.
The latest estimate of the progress Iran has made on developing material for nuclear weapons, produced by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), concludes that Iran's nuclear program has reached the point at which Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five nuclear weapons within three weeks.America's alarming non-confrontational policy towards the mullahs -- even asking Europe not to censure Iran for its growing nuclear weapons program -- has been a mainstay of both the Biden and Obama administrations. Their encouragement of Iran to acquire nuclear bombs has led the mullahs and their proxies to expand their malign activities throughout the region. Biden's impotence has effectively invited Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia that controls most of Lebanon, to escalate its attacks against Israel with the aim of opening a new front on Israel's northern border – in the same way as the US surrender of the Afghanistan a terrorist group, the Taliban, along with assuring Russian President Vladimir Putin that a "minor incursion" would be acceptable, doubtless encouraged Russia to invade Ukraine.
The Biden administration's refusal to confront Iran directly over its conduct has also resulted in Iran seeking to deepen its ties with the Al-Shabaab terrorist movement based in Somalia. Establishing a foothold in Somalia or Sudan would enable Iran, which also backs Houthi rebels in Yemen, to cripple shipping passing through the vital Red Sea trade route as well as to be able to attack Israel from the south.
Another area where Washington's incompetent handling of key security issues is the Pacific, where apparent US aversion to upsetting the Communist dictatorship headed by Chinese President Xi Jinping has recently led to an increase in aggressive Chinese military conduct towards the Philippines as part of Beijing's efforts to expand its control over the South China Sea.
In the most recent incident, China's Coast Guard seized two Filipino ships on a resupply mission to an outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, severely wounding a number of navy personnel, according to Philippine officials. The shoal is claimed by both Manila and Beijing, and has been the scene of several clashes in recent months, which many regional officials believe could have been avoided if the Biden administration had taken a more robust approach to acts of Chinese aggression.
Washington's persistent dithering on China, as well as other vital issues of global security such as Ukraine, Iran, and failing wholly to back Israel fighting not only for its own existence but protecting freedom in the West from aggressive autocracies, will certainly lend encouragement to Putin and other dictatorial regimes in Beijing and Tehran that the US will not present a serious challenge to their efforts to expand their global influence. If the current administration allows terrorists and aggressors to win, what message does that send to all terrorists and aggressors?
The only way for the US to reclaim its global stature as the leader of the free world, after having tried everything else, is finally to adopt deterrence: warn every US adversary that if it provokes Washington, the response to each of them and their regimes will be a cost they do not wish to contemplate.
**Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute. © 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Is America about to get the president it deserves?
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/July 09, 2024
It was an excruciating experience to watch the first of the presidential debates between the Democratic and Republican parties’ presumptive nominees. The immediate question that sprung to mind was: Is this the best that the great American democracy can offer its electorate? Moreover, is it just an unfortunate coincidence that presented us with two candidates who do not seem to be fit for the highest office in the country (and I hasten to say for very different reasons)? Or is this just a reflection of the deep crisis in American society and politics, of which President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are a manifestation? There are no easy answers to these questions. Nevertheless, the unbearable ease with which both Biden and Trump won their nominations does not reflect well on their parties or on American society. For the neutral spectator, the TV debate, which was supposed to be a gladiatorial battle for the votes of the American people, looked mainly pitiful and a wasted opportunity to deliberate the issues of concern. Not only was it a waste for those who are eligible to vote in the US, but also for all those across the world, whether in Kyiv or Moscow, in Gaza or Israel, in Beijing or Taipei, who are going to be impacted by whoever runs the US. Even the format of these televised debates, which have been held since the 1960s, feels increasingly anachronistic, especially in the age of social media. This debate was unique compared to previous ones, as it was the first between a sitting president and his predecessor. But it represented a missed opportunity to assess both their track records and their visions for a second term. Instead, the hosts were quite passive when their questions were ignored by both candidates and, worse, when Trump, in his parallel universe, was allowed to be what Brits call “being economical with the truth,” while anyone else would regard his claims as sheer lies, to the point of being absurdities.
In the case of Trump, the question has always been whether he has ever been suitable for the presidency. However, in the case of a very tired and unfocused Biden, it was more about whether age has caught up with him. Most American voters and those who watched the debate would sadly agree with this assessment. There are no two ways about it: the role of US president is one of the most complex and demanding jobs in the world, both intellectually and mentally. It is a 24/7 job, working under impossible pressure, in the public spotlight and an environment of uncertainty with no complete information, but still one that requires making difficult decisions that in many cases can be a matter of life and death.
Many aspects of the debate should concern us, but if you are a Democratic official or a supporter you should be particularly worried. Immediately following the debate, Trump’s poll lead widened. If before the TV encounter that lead among likely voters, according to the New York Times/Siena College poll, was three points, immediately after the debate it leaped to six points (from 43 percent to 49 percent). At this crucial point of the election campaign, with both parties’ looming conventions set to confirm their nomination, the momentum is with the former and not the current president. Unless the Democrats take drastic action, they might as well brace themselves for a defeat on Nov. 5. For most voters, including Democratic supporters and donors, Biden’s fatigued and unsure appearance in the debate confirmed what they had feared for many months: that he is too old to continue as president for another four years, until he is 86. Considering that his rival is a convicted felon with more legal issues than any single article could outline in detail and with a failed and chaotic presidency behind him, winning the election should have been a walk in the park for Biden.
Moreover, Trump’s performance in the debate did not exactly cover him with glory. He resorted to his usual populist “I will claim whatever the hell I want to regardless of the truth” approach and doubtless stick to this as long as he believes it resonates with his supporters. For instance, his claims about “having the best environmental numbers ever,” that the border was the most secure during his time in office or that the economy collapsed under Biden were either sheer falsehoods or distorted presentations of the facts. Similarly, Trump’s claims that Democrats support abortion until birth and that “everybody” wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade were based on a fallacy propagated by the US right. Fewer than 1 percent of abortions in the US are performed at or beyond 21 weeks, largely because of fetal abnormalities. Yet, he came across in the debate as the more composed and succeeded in doing what he does best — being Trump. The unbearable ease with which both Biden and Trump won their nominations does not reflect well on their parties.
The panic among senior Democrats was all too obvious as they embarked on clumsy attempts to limit the damage, suggesting, for example, that the president was suffering from a cold or that he had been traveling intensively, even though the last time he was overseas was two weeks before the debate.
Biden then gave an interview to ABC News in an attempt to prove that he is mentally fit enough for the job, to stop his slide in the polls and to end the calls for his replacement. Alas, he was unnecessarily defiant when he declared that he is “running the world” and that no one is “more qualified” to be president.
The stakes could not be higher for the Democrats: stick with Biden and risk losing the election and leaving the country (and the world) in the hands of the volatile Trump, or act before it is too late.
More than two centuries ago, the Savoyard philosopher and diplomat Joseph de Maistre asserted that “every country gets the government it deserves.” Regardless of how much truth there may be in these words, the fragility of American society and the international arena is crying out for a US leadership that is capable of playing a significant role in navigating the rough waters that currently threaten to engulf both US domestic and global politics. Unfortunately, neither candidate in that TV debate appears to be capable of doing so.
**Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at international affairs think tank Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg

Israel’s war making Gaza uninhabitable for generations to come
Farah Al-Hattab/Arab News/July 09, 2024
Alongside the joys of childhood in the mountains of southern Lebanon, war and active bombing were never far away. While the Israeli occupation of most parts of southern Lebanon ended on May 25, 2000, two years after I was born, occupations of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms still continue today. A 33-day war was waged on Lebanon in July 2006, when I was eight years old. I was raised with the conviction that the fate of the Lebanese and the Palestinians is historically interconnected and that, one day, Palestine will be free. But this is not about me.
As I am writing, the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip has been raging for 270 days, with at least 38,430 people killed and 86,969 wounded since Oct. 7, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. We are witnessing an unfolding genocide that also has dire consequences for ecosystems and violates the right of many people to enjoy and live in a healthy environment. The ongoing war on Gaza has inflicted severe environmental damage, affecting air, water and land, along with all who depend on them. The immediate emissions from the war are staggering, with a mean estimate of 536,410 tonnes of carbon dioxide in the first 120 days of war, 90 percent of which are attributed to Israel’s air bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza. The air is contaminated with chemicals from weapons like white phosphorus due to the heavy use of explosives and exposure to white phosphorus munitions. This, in turn, leads to a decrease in the productivity of agricultural land and can harm existing plants. Water resources have been severely compromised, with about 60,000 cubic meters of untreated sewage and wastewater flowing daily into the Mediterranean Sea. Gaza’s drinking water system, already insufficient before the war, with 90 to 95 percent of groundwater undrinkable, is now in an even more critical state with an average availability of only 2 to 8 liters per person per day.
The destruction of farms and agricultural lands, coupled with 17 years of blockade, which has deprived the region of essential farming inputs, has led to severe food insecurity. As much as 57 percent of Gaza’s cropland has been damaged and, according to the UN, Israel has reportedly destroyed 70 percent of Gaza’s fishing fleet. Livestock are starving. Olive trees have often been deliberately targeted by Israeli soldiers or settlers, becoming a symbol of the suffering of Palestinians dispossessed of their heritage and unable to access their land and crops. The war has inflicted severe environmental damage, affecting air, water and land, along with all who depend on them.
Public health crises and increased vulnerability to the worsening impacts of climate change are silent but deadly consequences of the war. The Middle East and North Africa region is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average. Gaza, already a climate-vulnerable area, faces worsening conditions due to the war. A heat wave in April highlighted the dire conditions for the displaced population, with several people dying from the heat. Public health infrastructure, already weakened by years of blockade, is collapsing under the strain of the war. Sewage, wastewater and solid waste management systems and facilities have collapsed. Thousands of tonnes of solid waste are accumulating in informal dumping grounds across Gaza. The spread of diseases like skin infections, hepatitis A and diarrhea is increasing, with a potential epidemic threatening thousands of lives.
The environmental impact of the war extends beyond Gaza, affecting neighboring countries like Egypt and Jordan, which are both experiencing rising air pollution due to their proximity to Gaza. And Lebanon, particularly its southern border areas, is suffering from war-related agricultural damage, chemical pollution and contamination from explosive remnants. There too, a preliminary assessment indicated that white phosphorus shelling has caused extensive environmental harm, impacting natural ecosystems, water quality and posing threats to human health and livestock.
Although the natural environment is protected under international humanitarian law, it continues to be a silent casualty of war. The environmental devastation in Gaza violates multiple international laws and conventions designed to protect the environment during armed conflict. The Rome Statute and Geneva Conventions highlight that intentional environmental destruction can constitute a war crime.
International law requires Israel to bear the cost of rebuilding Gaza, given its recognized responsibility as an occupying power.
An Interim Damage Assessment by the World Bank stated that the total cost of the damage as of January was approximately $18.5 billion, while the damage already sustained in the environmental sector was $411 million.
According to UN Trade and Development, Gaza’s “unprecedented destruction will take tens of billions of dollars and decades to reverse.” And a UN Development Programme report stated that “the level of destruction in Gaza is such that rebuilding public infrastructure would require external assistance on a scale not seen since 1948.”With no permanent ceasefire on the horizon, the damage and the cost of reconstruction will inevitably increase, further compromising the ability of the Palestinian people to inhabit Gaza again.
I am witnessing an unfolding genocide with my own eyes, through my phone — a haunting first-hand documentation of horror. As long as Israel is not held accountable for the blood it has shed in my region, I fear the Gazans’ fate is coming for the rest of us.
In order to protect people, the environment and peace in Gaza and the region, Greenpeace demands an immediate and permanent ceasefire; a global embargo on all arms sales and transfers; an end to the illegal occupation of Palestine; the consistent and secure passage of aid trucks and enabling of investigators and environmental specialists to conduct field-based surveys. Some longer-term measures include international and regional donor support for water infrastructure development; comprehensive postwar environmental assessments; sustainable reconstruction efforts focusing on climate mitigation, resilience policies and community involvement; and measures to hold Israel accountable for the damage inflicted in Gaza in violation of its international obligations.
• Farah Al-Hattab is a campaigner and legal researcher with Greenpeace Middle East & North Africa based in Beirut. She was born and raised in southern Lebanon.

The sinister pact between Israel and Europe’s far right
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/July 09, 2024
The surprise victory of an alliance of leftist parties, the New Popular Front, in France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday has rattled the country’s far right, which had won the first round of the snap elections a week before and was hoping to repeat its gains and form a government for the first time since the Second World War. Such a victory would have unsettled the political landscape of Europe, threatened the unity of the EU and sent an ominous message to millions of immigrants in the continent and beyond.
While populist ultranationalist parties across Europe expressed shock at the result, they were joined by the Israeli political establishment, which was hoping for a far-right victory. The head of the conservative and right-wing political party Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Lieberman, said after Sunday’s results that “the victory of a radical leftist party in France means the rise of hatred against Israel and a spike in antisemitism, and I call on Jews in France to immigrate to Israel.”
Lieberman said that Jean-Luc Melenchon and many members of his France Unbowed party show pure antisemitism, as he put it. The head of the party in the French National Assembly had said that Paris would recognize the state of Palestine in the coming two weeks.
Liberman’s reaction points to the controversial ties between Israel and Europe’s far-right parties. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist coalition partners have been cheering for Europe’s far right despite its notorious antisemitic legacy.
For years, Netanyahu has been courting populist European figures such as Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox party, and Serbia’s ultranationalist President Aleksandar Vucic. He has links with other European populist leaders, including the staunchly anti-Islam Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, the young French far-right leader Jordan Bardella and Hungary’s ultranationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The meteoric rise of far-right parties in many European countries, as indicated by the results of the recent European Parliament elections, should worry Israel’s leaders. But it does not. Netanyahu has been able to find common ground with these parties, such as Islamophobic, fear-mongering rhetoric and the apparent need to preserve a shared Judeo-Christian culture against foreign intruders, especially Muslims.
Netanyahu has portrayed Israel’s onslaught on Gaza as a war on behalf of the West, saying that Israel’s victory would be the West’s victory. He has underlined that Israel’s ability to thwart an Iranian invasion would guarantee the stability of countries like Egypt, the collapse of which would lead to millions of illegal migrants heading to Europe, in his view. In response, many of Europe’s far-right parties have muted their antisemitic rhetoric, despite a rise in antisemitism in the West in recent years. Anti-Israel sentiments had spiked in many Western countries as a result of the war on Gaza. Still, Israel has been successful in calling on Western governments, such as Germany and the US, to equate anti-Zionism with antisemitism. Far-right European parties and politicians have come out in support of Israel’s war against Hamas, saying that Israel had the right to self-defense and that “Islamist terrorists” — a term that Netanyahu uses a lot — were seeking to destroy Israel. Some have gone as far as rejecting any move to recognize a Palestinian state or even support a two-state solution, identifying completely with Israel’s far-right parties and government.
Wilders insisted that the Netherlands’ newly formed center-right government committed to moving the Dutch Embassy to Jerusalem at “the appropriate time.” Orban’s close relations with Netanyahu have raised eyebrows, especially since the followers of the Hungarian premier’s party are often accused of being antisemitic. But for the ultranationalist leader, preventing the supposed Islamization of Europe and protecting its Judeo-Christian heritage are a priority. In late October last year, Hungary voted against a UN General Assembly resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, in support of Israel.
Orban is also euroskeptic and opposes the EU’s immigration policies, as well as its position on the Russia-Ukraine war. The pro-Israel trend among Europe’s far-right parties is not new. A European Coalition for Israel assessment of the European Parliament’s ninth term, which concluded this year, found that the 20 parties whose votes were most favorable to Israel all belonged to the far-right and euroskeptic groupings, mainly the European Conservatives and Reformists, including Vox and the Sweden Democrats.
One other reason the far-right parties back Israel is not publicly discussed. Europe’s persecution of the Jews did not start with the rise of Adolf Hitler. European countries persecuted the Jews for centuries, leading to the birth of Zionism in the 19th century and the search for a Jewish homeland. For far-right politicians, the survival of Israel at the expense of the Palestinians relieves Europe of its Jewish burden. For ultranationalist leaders in both Europe and Israel, the rise of antisemitism in the West can be put to good use by encouraging European Jews to move to Israel for fear of a repeat of past pogroms. Being pro-Palestine and against Israel’s occupation policies is often described as anti-Zionism, which is conflated with antisemitism. It does not matter as long as it can be utilized to export Europe’s Jewish problem. Ironically, the far right on both sides of the equation look to benefit from this.
For far-right politicians, the survival of Israel at the expense of the Palestinians relieves Europe of its Jewish burden. While Israel is facing international isolation because of its atrocities in the Occupied Territories, it is being backed by populist leaders like Donald Trump, Argentina’s Javier Milei, India’s Narendra Modi and others. The common enemies here are Islam and Muslims. Netanyahu and his gang have managed to ride the anti-Islam wave that is the central platform of Europe’s far right.
Few Israeli politicians have raised concerns about the emerging alliance between Israel and the far right, which holds views counter to Israel’s self-proclaimed democratic values. But those that have spoken out see such an alliance as undermining Israel’s standing, especially among more liberal European parties and voters. Israel’s current government is a far-right, fascist and supremacist body that now identifies with European parties that share the same values. While the Palestinians stand to lose support if these far-right parties ever come to power, including Trump’s possible reelection in November, the damage to the world will be much more significant. But in the short run, Israel’s radicals will find allies in the next generation of European leaders, as more voters shift to the far right to protest the status quo political establishment and the failings of the US-led Western world.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010

Israel moving fast to prevent a Palestinian state
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/July 09, 2024
Israel recently announced the appropriation of more than 12 sq. km of land in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley, declaring it “state land.” The move follows other appropriations of land in February and March. The recent announcement makes 2024 the year with by far the most appropriation of West Bank territory to “state land” since the 1993 Oslo Accords, according to Peace Now. Last week, Israel also approved the construction of 5,295 new housing units in West Bank settlements. Ever since Israel captured East Jerusalem and the West Bank in 1967, Israeli governments have supported varying levels of Israeli settlement in the West Bank. Today, there are more than 100 settlements — or far more, depending on how one counts — in the West Bank and a population of more than 500,000 settlers in the territory. For decades, the expansion of settlements has presented a growing obstacle to the potential for a Palestinian state in the West Bank. The settlements — combined with the road network, separation barrier, water allocations and other infrastructure designed to protect and support them — make any sort of governable Palestinian state impossible. The Palestinian Authority only has limited governance over enclaves that are like holes in Swiss cheese. The creation of a viable Palestinian state would require extensive dismantling of settlements and the related infrastructure and moving many settlers back into Israel. It is not clear that any Israeli government since the Oslo Accords has been willing to seriously consider such steps, which have become increasingly difficult as settlements have expanded. It is very clear that the current Israeli government adamantly opposes the creation of a Palestinian state and actively supports increasing land appropriation and settlement.
The current government has granted Bezalel Smotrich, a committed settler activist who wants to annex the West Bank, extensive powers over the territory. This process included establishing a Settlements Administration under his authority and giving him expanded powers to determine the use of West Bank land. He is also using the position to make it even easier for Israel to destroy Palestinian buildings and to ensure that more defense funds go to protecting settlements.
Settlement expansion and settler violence have played a major role in undermining Palestinian hopes for a state.
In recent comments, Smotrich made it clear that he is remolding the bureaucracy through which Israel manages the West Bank to ensure permanent Israeli control and settlement of the territory and to block any future Palestinian state. He has also used his powers as finance minister to withhold tax revenues that Israel collects on behalf of the PA — a move designed to undermine the already weakened Palestinian administration. Under Smotrich, settler violence against Palestinians has spiked, with increasing impunity and sometimes support from Israel’s security forces. The political environment after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel has fueled even more violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. From Oct. 7 to July 1, there were 539 Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank due to the conflict, according to the UN; most of those were due to Israeli military actions, but settlers have also killed Palestinians (the UN reported 14 Israeli fatalities in the West Bank during the same period).
The UN reported 1,050 settler attacks in the West Bank between Oct. 7 and July 1. Settler attacks on Palestinians are not new, but the scale has increased substantially. The violence includes killings, beatings, arson and property destruction. The primary purpose of the attacks is often to try to force Palestinians to leave. Displacement of West Bank Palestinians has increased significantly since Oct. 7, including the use of violence and harassment to force Bedouin communities near and in the Jordan Valley to leave — which has the uncoincidental effect of easing the expansion of Israeli control and settlement in the strategically located Jordan Valley. Emotions also drive settler attacks, including a desire for revenge and to assert power.
Settlement expansion over decades and growing settler violence have played a major role in undermining Palestinian hopes for a state. The PA’s inability to halt the loss of Palestinian land or to protect Palestinians has contributed to distrust of its leaders. Palestinians have long lived with the reality of daily obstacles and humiliations imposed on them by Israeli authorities, while watching settlements increasingly gobble up the limited West Bank land. Under the current Israeli government and particularly since Oct. 7, they also live with intensified fear of attack from Israeli security forces, settlers or both. The PA is unable to do anything effective about it.
A warning that settlement expansion is an obstacle to peace — at least under a two-state solution — is hardly new. Indeed, it goes back to the signing of the Oslo Accords. But the problem is far greater today than in 1993 and it is getting worse. The current government’s policies make it very clear that the Israeli government seeks full control over the West Bank and rejects a Palestinian state.
As world leaders ponder what should happen in Gaza after the current war, they are paying renewed attention to the idea of a two-state solution. US President Joe Biden, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and multiple other world leaders have emphasized that a two-state solution is the only way to resolve the conflict. They — especially leaders in Washington — must recognize that the current Israeli government actively opposes such a solution and is making fast progress to make sure it never happens.
**Kerry Boyd Anderson is a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. X: @KBAresearch

Netanyahu’s Washington Visit: Who Benefits Most?
Philippe Abi-Akl/This is Beirut/July 09/2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming three-day visit to Washington scheduled for July 24 is among the most significant Israeli visits to the strategic United States ally. This visit is crucial not only because it occurs at a pivotal moment in their strong relationship – despite the Democratic anger against Netanyahu and readiness to boycott and protest his visit – but also due to its timing right before the US presidential elections. Both sides may use this visit to play potentially winning cards in their exchanges, especially considering the backdrop of the Gaza war.
In fact, a diplomatic observer describes the visit as pivotal for the “fate” of Joe Biden’s presidential campaign, and critical for Netanyahu’s political future and the outcome of the war in Gaza. Prior to the visit, Netanyahu informed Biden in a goodwill gesture that he decided to send a delegation to Doha to discuss a ceasefire proposal in Gaza with representatives from Hamas and the US through indirect negotiations. This decision follows Hamas’s flexible and positive response to proposed ceasefire ideas. A Hamas delegation visited Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to update him on the latest ceasefire developments, and the Islamic Jihad announced it would halt hostilities once a ceasefire is declared in Gaza.
Alongside these positive developments, the White House sent President Joe Biden’s senior advisor Amos Hochstein to Paris, where he met with officials to discuss joint efforts to restore calm in the Middle East. “Both countries are striving to diplomatically resolve the current conflict along the Blue Line in southern Lebanon, aiming to ensure that Israeli and Lebanese civilians can safely return home with long-term security guarantees.”Hochstein, along with France’s envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and President Macron’s advisor for Lebanon at the Élysée, Anne-Claire Legendre, collaborated to integrate French and American proposals for Lebanon. Their objective was to craft a solution based on the joint statement from the French-American summit in Paris on June 9, which emphasized “preserving stability, and reducing tensions along the Blue Line. They also called on all parties to exercise restraint, adhere to Resolution 1701, elect a president after an 18-month vacancy, form a government, and implement reforms to achieve stability, economic recovery, and growth.”
These developments coincide with the Biden administration waiting for Israel’s response and discussions behind the scenes about a potential deal to halt hostilities in Gaza, which could positively affect Lebanon. Consequently, and according to informed sources, Netanyahu might leverage Biden’s electoral “stuckness” to impose conditions and demands. This strategy aims to bolster Netanyahu’s domestic standing, secure continued US support, supply Israel with necessary weaponry, and improve relations that have been tense since October 7.
Amid these developments, the Biden administration is actively urging Israel and Hamas to agree to a Gaza ceasefire proposal before August 8. This date marks the final stage of the presidential race, when the Democratic and Republican nominees will be officially confirmed. According to US sources, Biden needs to secure an achievement, particularly in the Middle East, to bolster his electoral prospects against Republican rival Donald Trump. Facing his Republican rival, who gained significant ground in a CNN one-on-one debate, Biden’s weak performance has raised calls within the party to replace him with a candidate who can effectively confront Trump.
According to an Arab official’s assessment, a ceasefire in Gaza based on Biden’s proposal would require the involved parties to outline a roadmap for “the day after” and agree on a mechanism to ensure the stability of the ceasefire. This is expected to lead to calm in the south, with Naim Qassem stating, “If there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will also immediately cease fire.”Based on these developments, the election of a president through a consensus formula might become feasible. Consequently, the region and domestic arena may witness proactive moves in anticipation of negotiation outcomes. This involves Jean-Yves Le Drian’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the return of Qatari envoy “Abu Fahed” to Lebanon, actions by the National Moderation Bloc, and the Lebanese Forces delivering a political document to the Quintet’s ambassadors that proposes “convening a presidential election session, contingent on MPs remaining present until the election.” If no candidate secures 86 votes in the first round, the session will adjourn for two hours or more, with dialogue and consultation sessions held within the Parliament until a consensus is reached.”
This scenario could come to fruition if Israel and Hamas accept Biden’s ceasefire proposal. Previously, Hezbollah rejected Hochstein’s offer for a cessation of military operations and the establishment of a 10-kilometer buffer zone in the south, free from armed men and illicit weapons, before August 8, with the aim of later transitioning from a temporary cessation of military operations to a permanent ceasefire.
According to Western diplomatic sources, several Western capitals are not ruling out a (blitzkrieg) targeting of Hezbollah sites, centers and warehouses, if the Gaza war persists and the southern front remains active. Such a strike could potentially compel Hezbollah to declare a cessation of military operations. Moreover, these capitals have issued warnings advising their citizens to avoid visiting Lebanon and urging those already there to leave. All of this must happen before September, according to Western diplomatic sources, as the region faces developments ahead of the US elections. It is also imperative to reconvene the trilateral meetings in Naqoura (involving Lebanon, Israel and UNIFIL) with US participation, to resolve the ongoing land border dispute between Lebanon and Israel over the six contested points, including point B1. This includes ensuring the Blue Line remains a demarcation line, not a border, as articulated by a politician citing Hochstein. Ambassador David Hale suggests that “the primary decision-maker for events unfolding on the Lebanese front is not in Beirut, but rather in Tehran.” In a televised interview, he elaborates, “I believe that Iran, as a decision-maker, does not want to put Hezbollah in jeopardy.”According to political opposition sources, “The aforementioned scenarios remain subject to change and volatility pending Iran’s stance after the presidential elections, especially as Arab diplomatic circles perceive a diminishing Iranian influence in the region, notably evident in Syria.”This shift likely prompted Iran to expedite an agreement with Biden on the nuclear issue and offer concessions. This move could strengthen Biden’s campaign against Trump and prevent his return, driven by Iran’s concerns over potential retaliatory actions. Will Iran adhere to its conditions and escalate threats to expand fronts without following through, all in an effort to secure gains that ensure its continued influence in the region, particularly through its alliance with Hezbollah?