Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 04-05/2024
My Father told me the story of our ancestor's journey to The United States of America/Eblan Farris/Face Book/July 04/2024
Hezbollah launches major attack after commander killed in Israeli strike
Fires have become the most visible sign of the conflict heating up on the Lebanon-Israel border
Hezbollah fires over 200 rockets into Israel after killing of senior commander
Reports: Hochstein and Le Drian agree to prepare joint paper
Fires: Most visible sign of Lebanon-Israel conflict
Hezbollah sends explosive drones, rocket barrage at Israel in biggest attack ever
2 civilians injured, 1 fighter killed in Israeli response to Hezbollah rocket barrage
Sami Gemayel: Resolution 1559 is Key to Saving Lebanon
Mawlawi: No Salvation for the Country Except Through its National Army
Foreign Affairs Committee in Naqoura: Lebanon Does Not Want War
Iraqi armed groups say ready to fight Israel if Lebanon war breaks out
Rescued from wildlife trade in Lebanon, lion cub Freya is now safe in South Africa
Qatari Ambassador Visits LBCI Studios
Lebanese Committee on Foreign Affairs visits UNIFIL amidst Israeli attacks and mandate renewal
Open War or Controlled Escalation?
Families of August 4th Victims: We Won’t Stop
US struggling to calm Israeli-Hezbollah tensions/Maria Maalouf/Arab News/July 04, 2024
Iran’s and Israel’s stakes in Lebanon/Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/July 04/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 04-05/2024
UK's Labour Set to Sweep into Power with Huge Majority, Exit Poll Shows
Israel sends Mossad chief to Qatar for Gaza hostage negotiations: sources
US sees major breakthrough in Israel-Hamas talks — senior official
Israel sends delegation to negotiate hostage release deal with Hamas
Gaza death toll surges past 38,000, Health Ministry says
Israel weighs Hamas' latest response to Gaza cease-fire proposal as diplomatic efforts are revived
Life and death in Gaza's 'safe zone' where food is scarce and Israel strikes without warning
Tensions with Iran spotlight Israel's hidden nuclear arsenal
Israel approves largest West Bank land seizure in three decades, rights group says
Iranians go to the polls again ... or will they?
Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon who rose to power in parliament, runs to be Iran's next president
The Kremlin says India's Modi will visit Russia on July 8-9, hold talks with Putin
Turkey's Erdogan wants to play both sides in the Ukraine war. Putin isn't having it.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 04-05/2024
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gets powerful ships to confront adversaries well beyond the Persian Gulf/Benjamin Brimelow/ Business Insider/July 4, 2024
Iran presidential election: Jalili, Pezeshkian go head-to-head amid voter apathy/Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 04, 2024
The Biden-Trump Rematch: Who Might Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?/Salam Zaatari/This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
Biden’s ‘peace deal’: confusion or deception?/James J. Zogby/The Arab Weekly/July 04/2024
The Solution in Libya is to Evacuate it from Militias/Jebril Elabidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 04/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 04-05/2024
My Father told me the story of our ancestor's journey to The United States of America.
Eblan Farris/Face Book/July 04/2024
My Father told me the story of our ancestor's journey to The United States of America. My ancestors came from Lebanon to the United States in 1898 and 1900. Through Ellis Island - my Mom's family went to Joplin Missouri and my Dad's family Springfield, Missouri.
Lebanon was occupied by the Ottoman Empire, the Ottomans would go to a home and if you had 4 children they would take 3 and leave 1. The 3 would be used as laborers and most of the time the family would never see them again. So, instead of giving 3 to the Ottomans - many Lebanese Families would send the 3 to America, the Land of Freedom, the Land of Hope!
They traveled by Ship from Lebanon to New York, and the trip would last about 40 days, upon getting closer to the shores of the United States, they eagerly waited for the first sign of the new promised land by searching out the Statue of Liberty, a symbol of enduring hope.
The Statue of Liberty has been a symbol of freedom and hope for millions of immigrants to the United States, it remains an international symbol of freedom for people everywhere, the Statue of Liberty has greeted immigrants in search of a better life to America’s shores.
After going through Ellis Island they traveled to Springfield. My dad told me they walked a lot but the majority of the travel was by train. Interesting note as to why they chose Springfield, other Lebanese immigrants made it here and were successful, and that the train actually ended in Springfield Missouri.
Our great great Uncle Frank had 3 stores in Springfield and a house, he hosted and employed everyone that came from the old country. He used to instruct them about honest work and upholding a good reputation, and that we all are now part of the American family and must contribute positively to this family. Upholding high standards of Morals, Values, and Ethics. He used to tell them every morning we will attend morning mass from 7:00 am to 7:30 am and then head off to work the day usually lasted until 7 pm, and then he hit them with this last statement - “miss one day of mass and you’re going back to the Ottomans.”To embark to this land was the best decision in our families' history.
Credit: Eblan Farris

Hezbollah launches major attack after commander killed in Israeli strike
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/July 04, 2024
Southern front ‘will remain active and strong,’ head of Executive Council says
Israeli army reports one soldier killed, others severely injured
BEIRUT: Hezbollah launched a major rocket and drone attack on Israel on Thursday and threatened to target new sites in retaliation for the killing of one its top commanders. The party fired advanced Burkan and Falaq rocket attacks at various sites in northern Israel, including five army barracks, a shopping mall in Acre and the Golan Heights. The Israeli army said one soldier died in the attack and several others were seriously injured. Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth reported that 25 firefighting teams had been deployed to tackle 10 fires in Golan and the Upper Galilee sparked by the incident. The head of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit, Mohammed Nimah Nasser, and his companion were killed during an attack by an Israeli aircraft on the Tyre road. Nasser is the most prominent field commander to have been killed since the start of the conflict. Last month, the commander of Hezbollah’s Al-Nasr Unit, Talib Sami Abdullah, was killed in a bombing raid on a house in Juwaya. A source close to Hezbollah said Nasser had “a great symbolism in the party.” He first engaged in resisting the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon in 1984 and had been involved in the current conflict since Oct. 8.
“When Israel established the border strip, he was involved in all incursions until the liberation of the south in 2000. He played his role in the July 2006 war and the wars in Syria and Iraq between 2011 and 2016,” the source said. Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, said the southern front “will remain active and strong” and that the Israeli army was about to face a “resounding defeat amid the steadfastness of the people of Gaza and the resistance that will remain in Gaza.” According to security sources, Hezbollah launched 25 drones from Lebanese territory toward northern Israel Upper Galilee and Golan “after it had emptied the Iron Dome of interceptor missiles.”Israeli media said there had been reports of several drone explosions and that sirens had sounded in Kidmat Zvi in southern Golan. Other reports said a soldier had been killed and that others had been injured. A Hezbollah statement said it “targeted a newly established position of Israeli soldiers in the Kfar Blum settlement with a salvo of Katyusha rockets.”It said it also fired more than 200 rockets of various types at the 91st Brigade headquarters at Ayelet Barracks, the command headquarters of the 7th Armored Brigade at Katsavia Barracks, the command headquarters of the Armored Battalion of the 7th Brigade at Gamla Barracks, the command headquarters of Brigade
Hezbollah said it targeted the Al-Baghdadi site with a Burkan rocket.
On Wednesday night, in response to Nasser’s death, Hezbollah said it shelled “the Zarit Barracks with Burkan rockets, headquarters of the land force battalion in the Kila’a barracks with dozens of Katyusha rockets and the command headquarters of brigade 769 in Kiryat Shmona barracks with Falaq rockets.” The group also targeted the Birkat Risha and Al-Raheb sites. A military source told Israeli Army Radio that the scale of the attack was “fully consistent with Hezbollah’s announcement.” The Israeli army said it “observed the firing of about 160 shells and 15 suicide drones from Lebanon, and air defenses intercepted most of them.” Israeli media said that “train traffic from Haifa to Nahariya was halted due to the security situation.” The military escalation in southern Lebanon coincided with the arrival of a delegation from the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Lebanese Parliament to the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura amid the sound of sirens. The delegation was met by UNIFIL mission commander, Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lazaro, and senior officials. The meeting included a review of the UNIFIL’s role and missions ahead of next month’s renewal of the mandate of the international forces for another year. Hezbollah’s attack was met with a violent Israeli response, which echoed in Beirut as warplanes broke the sound barrier over the south, reaching Beirut and its southern suburbs and Metn in Mount Lebanon. Hezbollah said party member Hady Ahmed Shreym, aged 28, was killed in an Israeli drone attack on a house in Houla. Israeli warplanes also launched strikes on Aitaroun, Aita Al-Shaab and Ramia, while Israeli artillery targeted the towns of Khiam, Udaysah, Kafr Kila, Rab El-Thalathine, Qantara, Deir Seryan, Qabrikha and Naqoura.
Several civilians were injured in the shelling of Kfar Shouba, including Ahmad Ghanem, a member of the municipal council, and Ali Al-Hajj who was inside the same house.

Fires have become the most visible sign of the conflict heating up on the Lebanon-Israel border
Abby Sewell And Melanie Lidman/CHEBAA, Lebanon (AP)/July 4, 2024
With cease-fire talks faltering in Gaza and no clear offramp for the conflict on the Lebanon-Israel border, the daily exchanges of strikes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have sparked fires that are tearing through forests and farmland on both sides of the frontline. The blazes — exacerbated by supply shortages and security concerns — have consumed thousands of hectares of land in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, becoming one of the most visible signs of the escalating conflict. There is an increasingly real possibility of a full-scale war — one that would have catastrophic consequences for people on both sides of the border. Some fear the fires sparked by a larger conflict would also cause irreversible damage to the land.
Charred remains in Lebanon
In Israel, images of fires sparked by Hezbollah's rockets have driven public outrage and spurred Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, to declare last month that it is “time for all of Lebanon to burn.”
Much of it was already burning. Fires in Lebanon began in late April — earlier than the usual fire season — and have torn through the largely rural areas along the border. The Sunni town of Chebaa, tucked in the mountains on Lebanon’s southeastern edge, has little Hezbollah presence, and the town hasn't been targeted as frequently as other border villages. But the sounds of shelling still boom regularly, and in the mountains above it, formerly oak-lined ridges are charred and bare. In a cherry orchard on the outskirts of town, clumps of fruit hang among browned leaves after a fire sparked by an Israeli strike tore through. Firefighters and local men — some using their shirts to beat out flames — stopped the blaze from reaching houses and U.N. peacekeeper center nearby. “Grass will come back next year, but the trees are gone,” said Moussa Saab, whose family owns the orchard. “We’ll have to get saplings and plant them, and you need five or seven years before you can start harvesting.”Saab refuses to leave with his wife and 8-year-old daughter. They can't afford to live elsewhere, and they fear not being able to return, as happened to his parents when they left the disputed Chebaa Farms area — captured from Syria by Israel in 1967 and claimed by Lebanon.
Burn scars in Israel
The slopes of Mount Meron, Israel’s second-highest mountain and home to an air base, were long covered in native oak trees, a dense grove providing shelter to wild pigs, gazelles, and rare species of flowers and fauna. Now the green slopes are interrupted by three new burn scars — the largest a few hundred square meters — remnants of a Hezbollah explosive drone shot down a few weeks ago. Park rangers worry that devastation has just begun. “The damage this year is worse a dozen times over this year,” said Shai Koren, of the northern district for Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority.
Looking over the slopes of Meron, Koren said he doesn’t expect this forest to survive the summer: “You can take a before and after picture.”
Numbers and weapons
Since the war began, the Israeli military has tracked 5,450 launches toward northern Israel. According to Israeli think tank the Alma Research and Education Center, most early launches were short-range anti-tank missiles, but Hezbollah's drone usage has increased. In Lebanon, officials and human rights groups accuse Israel of firing white phosphorus incendiary shells at residential areas, in addition to regular artillery shelling and airstrikes. The Israeli military says it uses white phosphorus only as a smokescreen, not to target populated areas. But even in open areas, the shells can spark fast-spreading fires. The border clashes began Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas-led incursion into southern Israel that killed around 1,200 people and sparked the war in Gaza. There, more than 37,000 have been killed, according to Gaza's Health Ministry.
Hezbollah began launching rockets into northern Israel to open what it calls a “support front” for Hamas, to pull Israeli forces away from Gaza. Israel responded, and attacks spread across the border region. In northern Israel, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. In Lebanon, more than 450 people — mostly fighters, but also 80-plus civilians and noncombatants — have been killed. Exchanges have intensified since early May, when Israel launched its incursion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah. That coincided with the beginning of the hot, dry wildfire season. Since May, Hezbollah strikes have resulted in 8,700 hectares (about 21,500 acres) burned in northern Israel, according to Israel's Nature and Parks Authority. Eli Mor, of Israel’s Fire and Rescue, said drones, which are much more accurate than rockets, often “come one after another, the first one with a camera and the second one will shoot.”“Every launch is a real threat,” Mor added. In southern Lebanon, about 4,000 hectares (10,000 acres) have burned due to Israeli strikes, said George Mitri, of the Land and Natural Resources program at the University of Balamand. In the two years before, he said, Lebanon's total area burned annually was 500 to 600 hectares (1,200 to 1,500 acres).
Fire response
Security concerns hamper the response to a fire's first crucial hours. Firefighting planes are largely grounded over fears they'll be shot down. On the ground, firefighters often can't move without army escorts. “If we lose half an hour or an hour, it might take us an extra day or two days to get the fire under control,” said Mohammad Saadeh, head of the Chebaa civil defense station. The station responded to 27 fires in three weeks last month — nearly as many as in a normal year. On the border's other side, Moran Arinovsky used to be a chef and is now deputy commander of the emergency squad at Kibbutz Manara. With about 10 others, he's fought more than 20 fires in the past two months. Mor, of Israel’s Fire and Rescue, said firefighters often must triage. “Sometimes we have to give up on open areas that are not endangering people or towns,” Mor said. The border areas are largely depopulated. Israel's government evacuated a 4-kilometer strip early in the war, leaving only soldiers and emergency personnel. In Lebanon, there's no formal evacuation order, but large swathes have become virtually uninhabitable. Some 95,000 people in Lebanon and 60,000 people in Israel have been displaced for nine months. Kibbutz Sde Nehemia didn't evacuate, and Efrat Eldan Schechter said some days she watches helplessly as plumes of smoke grow closer to home. “There's a psychological impact, the knowledge and feeling that we’re alone,” she said, because firefighters can't access certain areas. Israel’s cowboys, who graze beef cattle in the Golan Heights, often band together to fight blazes when firefighters cannot arrive quickly. Schechter noted that news footage of flames tearing across hillsides has focused more attention on the conflict in her backyard, instead of solely on the Gaza war. “Only when the fires started, only then we are in the headlines in Israel," she said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that as fighting in Gaza winds down, Israel will send more troops to its northern border. That could open a new front and raise the risk of more destructive fires. On Thursday, Israel’s Fire and Rescue Service said it was tackling fires in 10 separate areas sparked by barrages of missiles fired by Hezbollah in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed one of its top commanders the day before. Koren says natural wildfires are a normal part of the forest's lifecycle and can promote ecodiversity, but not the fires from the conflict. “The moment the fires happen over and over, that’s what creates the damage,” he said.

Hezbollah fires over 200 rockets into Israel after killing of senior commander
Kareem Chehayeb/BEIRUT (AP)/July 4, 2024
The Lebanese Hezbollah group said it launched over 200 rockets on Thursday at several military bases in Israel in retaliation for a strike that killed one of its senior commanders. The attack by the Iran-backed militant group was one of the largest in the monthslong conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with tensions escalating in recent weeks. The Israeli military said "numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets" had entered its territory from Lebanon, many of which it said were intercepted. There were no immediate reports of casualties. It said about 200 “projectiles” were launched toward the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and over 20 drones into Israeli territory, but that it had intercepted some of them. Israel after Hezbollah's attack struck various towns in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah’s “military structures” in the southern border towns of Ramyeh and Houla. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported an Israeli drone strike of Houla killed at least one person. Israeli jets also broke the sound barrier over the Lebanese capital and other areas in the country.
Israel on Wednesday acknowledged that it had killed Mohammad Naameh Nasser, who headed one of Hezbollah's three regional divisions in southern Lebanon, a day earlier. Hours after the killing, Hezbollah launched scores of Katyusha rockets and Falaq rockets with heavy warheads into northern Israel and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. It launched more rockets on Thursday and said it had also sent exploding drones into several bases. Nasser was of great importance to Hezbollah, which said he took part in battles in conflicts in Syria and Iraq from 2011 until 2016 and fought in the group's last war with Israel in 2006. Two other senior Hezbollah commanders have also been killed. The U.S. and France are continuing to scramble to prevent the skirmishes from spiraling into an all-out war, which they fear could spillover across the region. Washington in its shuttle diplomatic efforts initially hoped for calm along the Lebanon-Israel border in a deal that is not linked to the war in Gaza. However, since the U.S. has called for Hamas to agree to a cease-fire proposal presented by President Joe Biden, it has said that an end to the war in Gaza would lead to calm in Lebanon and northern Israel as well. The relatively low-level conflict erupted shortly after the outbreak of the war in Gaza. Hezbollah says it is striking Israel in solidarity with Hamas, another Iran-allied group that ignited the war in Gaza with its Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel. The group's leadership says it will stop its attacks once there is a cease-fire in Gaza, and that while it does not want war, it is ready for one. Israeli officials, meanwhile, say they could decide to go to war in Lebanon if efforts for a diplomatic solution fail.
Hezbollah's retaliation comes a day after a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, Amos Hochstein, met with French President Emmanuel Macron’s Lebanon envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Paris. The fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border. In northern Israel, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. In Lebanon, more than 450 people — mostly fighters but also dozens of civilians — have been killed. Israel sees Hezbollah as its most direct threat and estimates that it has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles.
In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war that ended in a draw.

Reports: Hochstein and Le Drian agree to prepare joint paper
Naharnet/July 04/2024 
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein’s talks in Paris on Wednesday with French special envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian tackled “the situation in Lebanon in terms of the border war between Israel and Hezbollah and the stalled presidential file,” a media report said. “The two mediators agreed on the continuation of coordination and the exchange of information regarding the situation in Lebanon,” al-Liwaa newspaper reported on Thursday. “Hochstein and Le Drian agreed on continuing to exert efforts to prevent an expansion of the war on the Lebanese-Israeli border,” the daily said.
They also agreed to “prepare a joint paper to move to Lebanon in light of the progress of the negotiations on the Gaza front,” the newspaper added. A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council meanwhile told al-Mayadeen television that Hochstein’s talks in Paris were constructive. The spokesman added that Paris and Washington aim to resolve the current conflict through diplomatic means.

Fires: Most visible sign of Lebanon-Israel conflict
Associated Press/July 04/2024
With cease-fire talks faltering in Gaza and no clear offramp for the conflict on the Lebanon-Israel border, the daily exchanges of strikes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have sparked fires that are tearing through forests and farmland on both sides of the frontline. The blazes — exacerbated by supply shortages and security concerns — have consumed thousands of hectares of land in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, becoming one of the most visible signs of the escalating conflict. There is an increasingly real possibility of a full-scale war — one that would have catastrophic consequences for people on both sides of the border. Some fear the fires sparked by a larger conflict would also cause irreversible damage to the land.
Charred remains in Lebanon
In Israel, images of fires sparked by Hezbollah's rockets have driven public outrage and spurred Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, to declare last month that it is "time for all of Lebanon to burn." Much of it was already burning. Fires in Lebanon began in late April — earlier than the usual fire season — and have torn through the largely rural areas along the border. The Sunni town of Shebaa, tucked in the mountains on Lebanon's southeastern edge, has little Hezbollah presence, and the town hasn't been targeted as frequently as other border villages. But the sounds of shelling still boom regularly, and in the mountains above it, formerly oak-lined ridges are charred and bare. In a cherry orchard on the outskirts of town, clumps of fruit hang among browned leaves after a fire sparked by an Israeli strike tore through. Firefighters and local men — some using their shirts to beat out flames — stopped the blaze from reaching houses and U.N. peacekeeper center nearby. "Grass will come back next year, but the trees are gone," said Moussa Saab, whose family owns the orchard. "We'll have to get saplings and plant them, and you need five or seven years before you can start harvesting."Saab refuses to leave with his wife and 8-year-old daughter. They can't afford to live elsewhere, and they fear not being able to return, as happened to his parents when they left the disputed Shebaa Farms area — captured from Syria by Israel in 1967 and claimed by Lebanon.
Burn scars in Israel
The slopes of Mount Meron, Israel's second-highest mountain and home to an air base, were long covered in native oak trees, a dense grove providing shelter to wild pigs, gazelles, and rare species of flowers and fauna. Now the green slopes are interrupted by three new burn scars — the largest a few hundred square meters — remnants of a Hezbollah explosive drone shot down a few weeks ago. Park rangers worry that devastation has just begun. "The damage this year is worse a dozen times over this year," said Shai Koren, of the northern district for Israel's Nature and Parks Authority.
Looking over the slopes of Meron, Koren said he doesn't expect this forest to survive the summer: "You can take a before and after picture."
Numbers and weapons
Since the war began, the Israeli military has tracked 5,450 launches toward northern Israel. According to Israeli think tank the Alma Research and Education Center, most early launches were short-range anti-tank missiles, but Hezbollah's drone usage has increased. In Lebanon, officials and human rights groups accuse Israel of firing white phosphorus incendiary shells at residential areas, in addition to regular artillery shelling and airstrikes. The Israeli military says it uses white phosphorus only as a smokescreen, not to target populated areas. But even in open areas, the shells can spark fast-spreading fires. The border clashes began Oct. 8, a day after the Hamas-led incursion into southern Israel. Hezbollah began launching rockets into northern Israel to open what it calls a "support front" for Hamas, to pull Israeli forces away from Gaza. Israel responded, and attacks spread across the border region. In northern Israel, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. In Lebanon, more than 450 people — mostly fighters, but also 80-plus civilians and noncombatants — have been killed. Exchanges have intensified since early May, when Israel launched its incursion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah. That coincided with the beginning of the hot, dry wildfire season. Since May, Hezbollah strikes have resulted in 8,700 hectares (about 21,500 acres) burned in northern Israel, according to Israel's Nature and Parks Authority.
Eli Mor, of Israel's Fire and Rescue, said drones, which are much more accurate than rockets, often "come one after another, the first one with a camera and the second one will shoot.""Every launch is a real threat," Mor added. In southern Lebanon, about 4,000 hectares (10,000 acres) have burned due to Israeli strikes, said George Mitri, of the Land and Natural Resources program at the University of Balamand. In the two years before, he said, Lebanon's total area burned annually was 500 to 600 hectares (1,200 to 1,500 acres).
Fire response
Security concerns hamper the response to a fire's first crucial hours. Firefighting planes are largely grounded over fears they'll be shot down. On the ground, firefighters often can't move without army escorts. "If we lose half an hour or an hour, it might take us an extra day or two days to get the fire under control," said Mohammad Saadeh, head of the Shebaa civil defense station. The station responded to 27 fires in three weeks last month — nearly as many as a normal year. On the border's other side, Moran Arinovsky used to be a chef and is now deputy commander of the emergency squad at Kibbutz Manara. With about 10 others, he's fought more than 20 fires in the past two months. Mor, of Israel's Fire and Rescue, said firefighters often must triage. "Sometimes we have to give up on open areas that are not endangering people or towns," Mor said. The border areas are largely depopulated. Israel's government evacuated a 4-kilometer strip early in the war, leaving only soldiers and emergency personnel. In Lebanon, there's no formal evacuation order, but large swathes have become virtually uninhabitable. Some 95,000 people in Lebanon and 60,000 people in Israel have been displaced for nine months. Kibbutz Sde Nehemia didn't evacuate, and Efrat Eldan Schechter said some days she watches helplessly as plumes of smoke grow closer to home. "There's a psychological impact, the knowledge and feeling that we're alone," she said, because firefighters can't access certain areas. Israel's cowboys, who graze beef cattle in the Golan Heights, often band together to fight blazes when firefighters cannot arrive quickly. Schechter noted that news footage of flames tearing across hillsides has focused more attention on the conflict in her backyard, instead of solely on the Gaza war. "Only when the fires started, only then we are in the headlines in Israel," she said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that as fighting in Gaza winds down, Israel will send more troops to its northern border. That could open a new front and raise the risk of more destructive fires. Koren says natural wildfires are a normal part of the forest's lifecycle and can promote ecodiversity, but not the fires from the conflict. "The moment the fires happen over and over, that's what creates the damage," he said.

Hezbollah sends explosive drones, rocket barrage at Israel in biggest attack ever
Associated Press/July 04/2024
Hezbollah said it launched "more than 200" rockets and a salvo of "explosive drones" at Israeli military positions Thursday, in one of its largest barrages, in response to a strike that killed a senior commander of the Iran-backed group. A Hezbollah statement said that "as part of the response to the... assassination carried out by the enemy" in southern Lebanon's Tyre area on Wednesday, its fighters fired "more than 200 rockets of various types" at five Israeli bases across the border including in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. The group later said that its fighters "carried out an aerial attack with a squadron of explosive drones" targeting eight Israeli bases across the border area including in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, "as part of the response to" Wednesday's strike. Siren alerts for rocket and air attacks sounded meanwhile across Israeli areas bordering Lebanon and in the annexed Golan Heights. The Israeli army said 17 alerts were sounded over 90 minutes in different parts of the northern region, from Nahariya in the west to the Golan in the east, amid increasing fears that cross-border clashes between Hamas ally Hezbollah and Israel could escalate into an all-out war. The Israeli military hit in response targets in south Lebanon.
It said in a statement that its forces were "striking launch posts in southern Lebanon", after "numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory". Most were intercepted and "fires broke out in a number of areas in northern Israel", it added, while Israeli media reported that one soldier was killed in the Golan Heights. Hezbollah later targeted other Israeli posts, including al-Marj, al-Baghdadi, and a post in the occupied Kfarshouba Hills with Burkan rockets.
Earlier on Thursday, Israeli artillery shelled the outskirts of al-Khiam and Kfarhamam while Hezbollah attacked Israeli soldiers in Kfar Blum in north Israel with Katyusha rockets, in retaliation to an Israeli strike on Shebaa that injured a civilian woman.
On Wednesday Hezbollah fired Falaq rockets with heavy warheads targeting the headquarters of the Israeli military's 769th Brigade in Kiryat Shmona, as well as 100 salvos of Katyusha rockets targeting the headquarters of Israel’s 210th division and the Kilaa air base in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights, in response to the commander's killing. Hezbollah launched rockets on northern Israel a day after a Hamas surprise attack on southern Israel in October, leading to limited clashes along the tense border.The attacks have since gradually escalated, with Hezbollah introducing new weapons in their attacks and Israel striking deeper into Lebanon.
Global diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent weeks to prevent escalating clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli military from spiraling into an all-out war that could possibly lead to a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Hezbollah maintains that it will stop its attacks once there is a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. Until then, it says it will continue with its attacks to pile pressure on Israel and the international community. Israeli officials have threatened to launch a larger military operation should Hezbollah not stop its attacks.
Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem told The Associated Press in an interview Monday that Israel cannot expect the group's attacks to remain limited should it launch a military operation within Lebanon, even if it aims to keep the conflict below the threshold of all-out war. Allies, including thousands of Iran-backed militiamen in Iraq, have offered to join Hezbollah on the front lines. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon since October have killed over 450 people, most of them Hezbollah fighters, but the dead also include more than 80 civilians and non-combatants. On the Israeli side, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed since the war in Gaza began. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the tense frontier have been displaced in the monthslong war. Hezbollah's retaliation comes a day after a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, Amos Hochstein, met with French President Emmanuel Macron’s Lebanon envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, in Paris, as part of his ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. French officials had invited Hochstein to the French capital to discuss the latest developments in their ongoing diplomatic scrambles, according to administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

2 civilians injured, 1 fighter killed in Israeli response to Hezbollah rocket barrage
Naharnet/July 04/2024
The Israeli military said Thursday its forces were "striking launch posts in southern Lebanon" after "numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory". It said that most were intercepted by air defense systems but that "fires broke out in a number of areas in northern Israel" following the attacks. Israel on Wednesday killed a senior Hezbollah commander, Mohammed Naameh Nasser, near the Lebanese coastal town of Tyre. A source close to the group described him as the "Hezbollah commander responsible for one of three sectors in south Lebanon". Another border sector chief was killed in an Israeli strike last month. Hezbollah said that "as part of the response to the... assassination carried out by the enemy" it had fired "more than 200 rockets" and "a squadron of explosive drones" at Israeli bases. Air raid sirens blared across northern Israel in the morning, and an AFP correspondent witnessed rockets crossing the frontier that were intercepted. Israel did not report any deaths in its northern border area, where most communities have been evacuated, but quickly said it had responded with strikes on targets in southern Lebanon. Israeli artillery shelled al-Qantara, Kounine and Qabrikha, including with white phosphorus bombs, while warplanes struck Bani Hayyan, Deir al-Seryan, and a forest between Kfarhamam and Kfarshouba. A photojournalist and a civilian were meanwhile injured in Israeli shelling on Kfarshouba and a Hezbollah fighter was killed in a strike on the southern border town of Houla. Israel and Hezbollah, an ally of Palestinian militant group Hamas, have exchanged near daily cross-border fire since the Gaza war erupted on October 7, stoking fears the clashes could escalate into all-out war. U.N. chief Antonio Guterres is "very worried about the escalation of the exchange of fire", his spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Wednesday, warning of the risk to the wider Middle East "if we were to find ourselves in a full-fledged conflict". Hezbollah and Hamas are part of an Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" against Israel and the United States, a regional alliance that also includes Yemen's Houthi rebels and militant groups in Iraq and Syria.
Heavy battles rock Gaza
The Gaza war broke out after Hamas's October 7 attack on southern Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. The militants also seized 251 hostages, 116 of whom remain in Gaza including 42 the army says are dead. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 38,011 people, also mostly civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory's health ministry. The Israel-Hezbollah border clashes have killed at least 496 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including 95 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
Israeli authorities say at least 15 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed on their side of the U.N.-patrolled border. The Gaza war at the heart of the regional tensions has meanwhile raged on, and gun battles, air strikes and artillery shelling rocked Gaza City for an eight day on Thursday. Israeli troops over the past day had "destroyed tunnel routes in the area and eliminated dozens of terrorists in close-quarters combat with tank fire, and in aerial strikes," said the military. Gaza's civil defense agency said at least five people were killed in a strike that hit a Gaza City school. Fears of renewed heavy fighting have also surged in Gaza's southern areas near Khan Younis and Rafah after the military on Monday issued a sweeping evacuation order that the U.N. said impacted 250,000 people.Witnesses reported air strikes and intense artillery shelling in western Rafah on Thursday.
Efforts towards truce
Israel has faced an international outcry over the soaring civilian death toll, punishing siege and mass destruction in Gaza. The U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Gaza, Sigrid Kaag, this week again called for an end to the "maelstrom of human misery".
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted Israel will destroy Hamas and bring home the remaining hostages. U.S. President Joe Biden, under growing domestic pressure over Washington's support for Israel, in late May outlined a roadmap for a six-week ceasefire and exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. There has been little progress since, but Hamas said Wednesday it was communicating with officials in Qatar and Egypt as well as Turkey with an eye to ending the conflict. Hamas said its Qatar-based political chief Ismail Haniyeh had "made contact with the mediator brothers in Qatar and Egypt about the ideas that the movement is discussing with them with the aim of reaching an agreement".Netanyahu's office and the Mossad intelligence service said "Israel is evaluating the (Hamas) remarks and will convey its reply to the mediators". The main stumbling block so far has centered on Hamas's demand for a permanent end to the fighting -- a demand Netanyahu and his right-wing nationalist government allies strongly reject.

Sami Gemayel: Resolution 1559 is Key to Saving Lebanon
This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel stated that UNSCR Resolution 1559 is essential for Lebanon’s salvation. In an LBCI interview, on Wednesday, he argued that Resolution 1559 calls for “the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias”. Adding that if 1559 had been implemented, Resolution 1701 wouldn’t be necessary. He also emphasized that partial implementation of 1701 leaves Lebanon hostage, while 1559 benefits Lebanon and 1701 benefits Israel. Gemayel stressed that Lebanon should be represented by a president at the negotiating table. “Hezbollah opposes a president who could negotiate but might accept one if forced,” Gemayel said. Gemayel explained that he sympathized with Palestinians on the humanitarian side but criticized Hezbollah for using their cause to market their project in the Islamic world, embroiling Lebanon to benefit Iran’s image. On the possibility of war expanding in the South, Gemayel believes Hezbollah doesn’t want to escalate but is “playing with delicate balances, relying on Israel’s reluctance for war.” He noted that an “agreement between Hezbollah and Israel might occur as the war lacks prospects, and both sides might seek a way to achieve their goals.”

Mawlawi: No Salvation for the Country Except Through its National Army
This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi commended the efforts of the Lebanese army in the South. “We know that there is no salvation for the country except through its national army, whether in the South or elsewhere,” he said.
In an interview with “Al-Joumhouria” on Thursday, the minister insisted on the safety of the security personnel stationed at the border points, stating that all necessary measures are taken to protect them. Regarding the security plan for Syrian refugees, he told the local newspaper that the plan started because of the increase in crimes. The minister stressed that the timing of this plan was determined by the need for citizens to “get used to respecting the rules and respecting security forces”. “Consequently, the Internal Security Forces Directorate continues to implement the security plan, which has led to a significant reduction in the number of crimes across Lebanon,” he said, adding: “We have witnessed its effectiveness”. On May 15, Mawlawi launched a plan aimed at maintaining security in Beirut. The ISF was deployed at the entrances to the capital as well as in the city’s main streets in order to control infringements. Regarding prison overcrowding, the interior minister disagreed with the statement of caretaker Justice Minister Henry Khoury, who said in a television interview that one of the main reasons behind trial delays is a question of logistics. Mawlawi brushed off any ambitions about becoming prime minister once a president is elected. “I don’t have a personal agenda. I am ready to work for the country wherever I am and, in any way, where I can make a difference,” he added.

Foreign Affairs Committee in Naqoura: Lebanon Does Not Want War
This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
A delegation of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee, led by MP Fadi Alameh, held talks with UNIFIL’s General Commander, Aroldo Lázaro on Thursday on the role and tasks of the UN Interim Forces in charge of monitoring violations along the Lebanese-Israeli border. As the meeting at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura was underway, sirens sounded in the premise following nearby explosions. The delegation, including MPs Pierre Bou Assi, Ibrahim Moussawi, Nasser Jaber, and Haidar Nasser, discussed with Lázaro and senior UNIFIL officials the implementation of the peacekeepers’ tasks under the current difficult conditions, ahead of the forces’ annual mandate renewal at the end of August. Speaking after the meeting, Alameh affirmed that “Lebanon does not want war; it wants the implementation of international resolutions. Our visit today comes in parallel with ongoing Israeli aggressions on Lebanon and ahead of the upcoming renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate… Today, more than ever, we affirm the need for your role.”UNIFIL spokesperson Kandice Ardiel emphasized the importance of the visit as it underscores UNIFIL’s collaboration with the Lebanese government. She noted the recent request by Lebanon to the Security Council for a renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate, highlighting the stabilizing and security role of the peacekeeping forces. Ardiel stated that both Lebanese and Israeli authorities view Resolution 1701 as the appropriate framework for a permanent solution.
“The situation in southern Lebanon has been tense since October 8, with periods of severe tensions and violent exchanges. UNIFIL continues to work through coordination mechanisms, urging a return to a ceasefire and encouraging disarmament to advance towards a long-term political and diplomatic solution for stability in southern Lebanon,” she added.

Iraqi armed groups say ready to fight Israel if Lebanon war breaks out
Agence France Presse/July 04/2024
As war rages in Gaza and threatens to spread to Lebanon, Iraqi militant groups warn they are ready to enter the fray against Israel and the United States. A field commander of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq said there would be "escalation for escalation" in the event of a full-scale war in Lebanon. The commander, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said the Iran-backed group had already sent "experts and advisors" to Lebanon. Iraqi political scientist Ali al-Baidar agreed that a major war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, if it happens, "will not be limited to Lebanese territory". "In Iraq and in the region armed groups will enter into the confrontation," he said, adding that they would want to show "their abilities, but also their loyalty" to their allies. The bloodiest-ever Gaza war broke out when Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7. The conflict quickly widened to involve several pro-Iran armed groups in the so-called "Axis of Resistance" expressing solidarity with the Palestinians and demanding an end of the Israeli offensive in Gaza. The alliance includes Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have attacked Israel and Israeli-linked shipping, but also armed groups in Syria and Iraq. In recent weeks, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsibility for drone strikes against targets in Israel, labelling many of them "joint operations" with the Houthis.The Israeli army, without naming an attacker, has confirmed several aerial attacks from the east since April, but has said they were all intercepted before entering its airspace.
'Legitimate targets'
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has previously shown its willingness to launch attacks. Last winter, it carried out more than 175 rocket and drone strikes against U.S. troops based in Iraq and Syria as part of an international anti-jihadist coalition.
On Sunday, the so-called Coordination of the Iraqi Resistance issued further threats against Israel and Israel's top ally the United States. Citing the threat of "total war against Lebanon", it warned that "if the Zionists (Israelis) carry out their threats, the pace and scale of operations targeting them will intensify". It added that "the interests of the American enemy" in Iraq and around the region would also be "legitimate targets". The group includes the Hezbollah Brigades, Al-Nujaba and the Sayyed al-Shuhada Brigades, all of whom are under U.S. sanctions. Al-Baidar noted the past experience of "operations and attacks against American forces and diplomatic missions" in Iraq."It is possible these attacks will repeat themselves with greater intensity," he said. In late January, a drone strike launched by Iraqi armed groups killed three U.S. soldiers in a base just across the border in Jordan and provoked an armed response.
The U.S. military -- which has some 2,500 troops deployed in Iraq and 900 in Syria with the international coalition -- responded with deadly strikes against pro-Iran factions and has vowed to retaliate if attacked again. "We will not hesitate to take all appropriate actions to protect our personnel," a State Department spokesperson told AFP, requesting anonymity. "Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq undermine Iraq's sovereignty by conducting unauthorized attacks against third countries, potentially making Iraq a party to a larger regional conflict."
'Common adversary'
Many of the Iraqi factions have fighters who are veterans of Iraq's recent wars or have been deployed in the civil war in Syria, which is separated from Israel by the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Militants are based south of the capital Damascus, and "elite troops" are stationed in the Golan region near the Israeli-occupied sector, says the group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Iraq specialist Tamer Badawi said the importance of Iraqi groups' "coordinated attacks" carried out with the Houthis "lies in their symbolism". He said they aim to highlight "the idea that groups separated by significant geographic distances are capable of synchronizing their armed action against a common adversary". Badawi, a doctoral student at Kent University, said any Iraqi intervention in Lebanon -- whether by sending "fighters en masse" or just "advisors" -- would "depend on Hezbollah's warfare needs". The scale of mobilization would respond to the need of "projecting the optics of transnational solidarity", Badawi said. "Symbolism matters for those groups across the region and is part of their branding as members of one league, as much as actual involvement in armed action." Many analysts suggest Israel, Hezbollah and Iran do not want a costly full-scale war in Lebanon but caution about the potential for miscalculations that could escalate tensions dangerously. Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah recently tempered the zeal of his allies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen on the subject of sending their fighters to Lebanon. Regarding "human resources", Nasrallah said, "the resistance in Lebanon has numbers exceeding its needs and the imperatives of the front, even in the worst fighting conditions".

Rescued from wildlife trade in Lebanon, lion cub Freya is now safe in South Africa
Associated Press/July 04/2024
Freya, a 6-month-old lion cub rescued from the wildlife trade in Lebanon, poked a curious nose out of her transport crate and sniffed the air. Satisfied, she took her first cautious steps in her new forever home in a sanctuary in South Africa.
Freya's relocation to the Drakenstein Lion Park is only a partial success story. She will never live as a lion should in the wild. She has been given lifetime sanctuary at Drakenstein, which has taken in other lions from zoos and circuses in France, Chile, Romania and elsewhere. Some have terrible backstories of abuse, noted on placards at the sanctuary: Ares was blind and neglected when he was rescued. Brutus had been beaten hard enough to break his jaw. But as Freya settles in at Drakenstein, animal welfare groups have again drawn attention to South Africa's contradictory position when it comes to the species that often symbolizes African wildlife. South Africa, with an admirable reputation for conservation and ethical sanctuaries like Drakenstein, also has a thriving captive lion business where the big cats are bred for petting and other encounters but also for killing in "canned hunting" experiences or for the lion bone trade. South Africa has special permission through the endangered plant and animal trade treaty CITES to export lion bones and skeletons, mostly to Southeast Asia to be used in traditional medicines. Canned hunting, where lions are chased down and shot in enclosures with no chance of a fair chase or escape, is also legal. Animal welfare groups have pushed for the business of breeding lions in captivity to end. The South African government announced recently it plans to close down the industry and it's expected to take two to three years if there are no legal challenges.
It has been a stain on South Africa's conservation brand, said Audrey Delsink, the Africa wildlife director for Humane Society International, which was involved in Freya's relocation. She said it was important for people to realize that the cute cubs used for petting encounters at some South African parks — but not at Drakenstein — end up being big lions shipped off to be killed.
"They've been pulled from their mothers, they've been hand-raised for you to take selfies with and enjoy them, and then eventually the same lions are going to be shot for trophies in a camp from which they cannot escape, and then end up as a bag of bones," Delsink said. There are more than 300 captive lion facilities in South Africa, with more than 7,000 lions. That is double the number of lions in the South African wild. Campaigners against the business say it should be made more clear to visitors that the vast majority of South Africa's lions live in cages in the world's largest captive lion industry. "We cannot pull the wool over tourists' eyes anymore," Delsink said. As for Freya, her rescuers hope that she will eventually bond and live in the same enclosure as young male cub Pi, who they believe is her brother and was brought from Lebanon in April.
Pi was illegally trafficked and owned by a man who used him to promote his TikTok account, said Jason Mier, director of Animals Lebanon, which rescued Pi and Freya. Pi often had his mouth taped shut when used for videos or selfies and was locked in a small cage at night. He was kept as a status symbol for his owner "to be able to show off I'm powerful, I have money, look at me," Mier said. Freya and Pi are the latest of nearly two dozen big cats rescued from various situations by Animals Lebanon. Some have come to Drakenstein, which doesn't allow cub petting or any close encounters, but does welcome visitors to see the lions and learn about them. Freya and Pi wouldn't survive if released in the wild, so the sanctuary is the best option for them. Those involved in Pi's rescue said they remember watching the cub experience grass under his paws for the first time at Drakenstein, even if it was in the enclosure he and Freya will likely inhabit for the rest of their lives.

Qatari Ambassador Visits LBCI Studios
LBCI/July 04/2024
The Qatari embassy in Lebanon highlighted on Thursday the visit carried out by Ambassador of Qatar to Lebanon Sheikh Saud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to LBCI studios. In a post, the embassy said that the aim of the visit is to get acquainted with LBCI’s work and various activities. “The ambassador was warmly welcomed by LBCI Chairman of the Board Pierre El Daher, and the station's team,” the post added.

Lebanese Committee on Foreign Affairs visits UNIFIL amidst Israeli attacks and mandate renewal
LBCI/July 04/2024
The Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Emigrants visited the UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, while the sound of sirens could be heard. The committee's members met with the Head of Mission and Force Commander Lt. General Aroldo Lázaro, who briefed them on UNIFIL's role and tasks under current circumstances, in anticipation of its mandate renewal for another year. Committee Chairman MP Fadi Alameh stated, "Lebanon does not seek war but rather the implementation of international resolutions. Today's visit [...] coincides with ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon. It also coincides with the upcoming renewal of UNIFIL's mandate to continue its humanitarian mission."In turn, UNIFIL Deputy Spokesperson Kandice Ardiel commented, "This visit is important as it underscores the significance of UNIFIL's work towards the Lebanese government," which had "recently requested the Security Council to renew our mandate for another year."Ardiel added: "We have informed both Lebanese and Israeli authorities that Resolution 1701 provides the appropriate framework for moving towards a permanent political and diplomatic solution. Therefore, this visit is part of supporting Resolution 1701."

Open War or Controlled Escalation?
This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
A former minister believes that there is no judicious reason, even from Israel’s perspective, for an imminent or inevitable open war against Lebanon at this stage of the confrontations with Hezbollah. According to a Western military expert, a distinction should be made between “a war without controls and ceilings,” as Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said, and a “controlled military escalation.”In the opinion of Western military circles, the cost of the war in southern Lebanon will be high and devastating, not only for Lebanon, but also for Israel, in view of Hezbollah’s powerful military arsenal. One military expert contends that if it breaks out, “the war will not remain confined to the south, but will engulf the whole region.”“After the destruction of Gaza, Lebanon and Israel would be devastated, and the United States would be embroiled in the war on Israel’s side, endangering its high interests in the region ahead of the presidential elections, a matter that will be detrimental to US President Joe Biden’s campaign for renewing his term in office,” the expert adds.

Families of August 4th Victims: We Won’t Stop
This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
On Thursday, activists and the families of the August 4th victims gathered in memory of their loved ones and to call for the resumption of the investigation into the port explosion, a month before its fourth anniversary.

US struggling to calm Israeli-Hezbollah tensions
Maria Maalouf/Arab News/July 04, 2024
This week’s exchange of rocket fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with escalating clashes that have included the assassination of a prominent Hezbollah leader and the targeting of military and civilian targets in northern Israel, has caused American officials to worry that this escalation could push the war-torn region into a broader conflict. Since Oct. 7, the Biden administration has been working diligently behind the scenes to reduce the chances of a war between Hezbollah and Israel, which could escalate into a regional war involving the US or expose American troops in Syria, Iraq and Jordan to greater risks. The most notable US efforts to calm the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah included the visit of envoy Amos Hochstein to the region on June 18. In Israel, he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. In Beirut, he met with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the Lebanese army commander and other officials. He clarified that the US does not want an escalation and called for an end to the ongoing Israeli aggression on Lebanon, as well as the restoration of calm and stability at the latter’s southern border. He pointed out that continuous Israeli threats to Lebanon would not prevent the US from seeking calm, which is a priority for it and all friends of Lebanon.
During his visit, Hochstein emphasized to both parties that the Biden administration wants to avoid further escalation into a larger war, pointing to the urgent need to restore security at the Lebanese-Israeli border and for residents to return to their homes. He added that the conflict along the border has lasted long enough and ending this conflict now would be in everyone’s interest. He said this would be achievable through a diplomatic path if both parties agreed.
Hochstein emphasized to both parties that the Biden administration wants to avoid further escalation
Simultaneously, the US affirmed its provision of security support to Israel, which could serve as a deterrent to Hezbollah. American officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk, reassured a delegation of senior Israeli officials who visited Washington recently that, if a full-scale war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah, the Biden administration was fully prepared to support its ally, although it would not deploy American troops on the ground in such a scenario. These personal assurances came as cross-border attacks between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah increased, raising fears of another full-blown conflict in the Middle East.
Since the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza on Oct. 7, Hezbollah’s provocations against Israel have continued, escalating in recent weeks. The Biden administration has repeatedly stated that it does not want another war on Israel’s northern front and has urged de-escalation.
On June 24, the US administration presented a proposal that included a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, establishing a buffer zone on the border. The US is striving to reach an agreement between the two sides that includes Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the border area and repositioning north of the Litani River, about 30 km away from the border with Israel. Hezbollah has rejected this option, insisting that its fight against Israel will continue until a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza. Israeli and American officials are trying to find an alternative that does not amount to a ceasefire in Gaza, which does not seem imminent. American officials have expressed concern about several scenarios, believing that Israel’s recent strikes inside Lebanese territory might be paving the way for a major offensive by the Israeli army and that Hezbollah might respond with larger rocket attacks on Israel. These officials are increasingly worried that Israel could initiate a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon — a war Israel cannot end without American support. Some officials are also concerned about the scale of Hezbollah’s attacks, which could lead to unintended consequences, forcing Israel to respond and potentially triggering all-out war. An American official mentioned that Israeli forces in the northern command are training in brigade-sized units but are not yet in a position to start an offensive.
If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, the latter, as an Iran-backed armed group, could potentially overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north, including the Iron Dome missile defense system. This would make full US support for Israel even more crucial. Furthermore, American officials are worried that, without a ceasefire in Gaza, the likelihood of war between Israel and Hezbollah will increase, significantly worsening the regional crisis and drawing the US deeper into the conflict.
The increasing cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah make it difficult for the US to ease tensions. The threat posed by Hezbollah to Israel, which is the most important US ally in the region, has become a significant political issue, with many Israelis who were evacuated from their homes in the north still displaced. The increasing cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah make it difficult for the US to ease tensions in the region, especially if the Biden administration’s efforts to mediate a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza continue to falter. The White House sees the ceasefire talks and the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah as highly complex, given that both sides have miscalculated with their escalation of rhetoric and the intensity of their attacks, while believing they can still avoid a full-scale war.
Assessing the chances of success for the aforementioned American efforts involves considering several factors, including disagreements between the American and Israeli sides on some issues. American officials have revealed that the disagreement between Netanyahu and President Joe Biden’s administration over withholding weapons from Israel will hinder US-Israeli diplomatic efforts to calm tensions at the Lebanese border and avoid war with Hezbollah.
There is no doubt that Netanyahu’s actions could create a crisis between the allies, leading to a further erosion of Israel’s deterrent power in the region, especially in the eyes of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In an address to the Knesset, Netanyahu promised to bring back all the hostages and emphasized that the war would not end until this goal was achieved, along with the elimination of Hamas and the safe return of southern and northern residents to their homes.
Some observers believe that any agreement with Hezbollah will be temporary and Hezbollah and Iran’s long-term strategy will remain unchanged. Therefore, the success of any diplomatic path, even temporarily, requires offering incentives to Hezbollah, such as agreeing on a defined border line. Both the US and Israel face a significant challenge, given that Hezbollah’s primary goal, since its inception, has been the removal of Israel. Recent developments suggest that American diplomatic efforts might encounter significant obstacles as long as the military operations and assassinations continue.
In conclusion, the situation seems to be heading toward a full-scale armed conflict if a settlement is not reached between the parties involved, particularly with Hezbollah linking its offensive operations against northern Israel to events in Gaza. This means that escalating the conflict into a full-scale war would undermine US mediation efforts, potentially diminishing Washington’s influence, as has happened in recent weeks when Netanyahu insisted on continuing with Israel’s military operations in Gaza.
**Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. X: @bilarakib

Iran’s and Israel’s stakes in Lebanon
Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/July 04/2024
The same countries which are accused of normalisation and of remaining silent about the Israeli massacres perpetrated against the Palestinians are actually also those preventing the expansion of the war to Lebanon, Iraq and Iran.
The worst thing about the Israeli war on Gaza, from the Iranian point of view, is that it has gone on for too long. The magnitude of Palestinian casualties or the extent of the destruction caused by the daily criminal Israeli bombing of Gaza is the last thing that could matter to the Iranians. The high toll and the sight of the never-ending devastation are actually factors that can help Iran better achieve its goal of incitement thorough the war. What is not in Iran’s interest is the Israelis’ putting aside any consideration of time. Israel is clearly willing to pay the price, no matter how steep it is, in terms of soldiers’ lives, economic cost and their country’s international reputation.
This consideration was hardly expected nor indeed was the Israelis’ patience in dealing with the northern front. They let Hezbollah engage in posturing while its fighters launched a string of rockets to show solidarity with Gaza’s population. The Israelis ignored hints that the militant Lebanese party, namely Iran, was not informed of the Hamas plan to carry out the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. Hezbollah’s goal was to emerge victorious from the war, without paying the price for this. It wanted to avoid being dragged into too many confrontations with the Israeli military in southern Lebanon/northern Israel, or losing too many of its troops, especially senior commanders. Hassan Nasrallah had experienced first-hand the dangers inherent in escalation with Israel during the 2006 war, to which he referred once by saying, “If I just knew.”
But Israel knows. It now views the situation with Hezbollah in a different light, having seen the danger that accrues from leaving military assets in the hands of an ideologically-driven faction, as the recent Hamas operation has demonstrated.
Hezbollah talks openly about amassing weapons, especially those provided by Iran and which include more advanced arms than the Katyusha rockets that were famous during the 2006 war. The more time passes, the more danger escalates in the north. Tensions in northern Israel may not turn into a full-fledged war, but one can argue that all the militias, missiles and drones are not being mobilised by Hezbollah for naught. Whether its purpose is to launch a sequel to “Al-Aqsa Flood” or not, the Hamas lesson in Gaza is not missed by Israelis. Even the lowest ranking Israeli staff officer believes the situation cannot continue.
It can be said that Israel reacted to the initial phases of escalation in a way desired by Hezbollah. Nasrallah and his main sponsor, Iran, were gratified by the appearance of being involved while talk prevailed during the first few weeks of the Gaza war about “unity of the battlefields”. But this “unity of battlefields” soon became muddled as the extent of the devastating Israeli actions in Gaza became clear. The pace of Hezbollah’s missile launches declined for a while. Then token missile attacks evolved into attempts to respond to the painful Israeli retaliatory blows which targeted the party’s infrastructure and a large segment of its leadership. Even before directing its attacks at Hezbollah’s elite forces and targeting the party’s senior military echelons, Israel dealt morale-sapping blows to Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the most serious being the killing of the head of Hamas in the West Bank, Saleh Al-Arouri, in the heart of the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah’s stronghold.
More discreetly, Israel was planning further painful strikes against Iranians, the sponsors of Hezbollah and Hamas. The matter reached its climax with the strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the killing of the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps in charge of operations in Syria and Lebanon, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. The Iranian response further deepened the predicament of Tehran’s allies in the region. None of the hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones was able to hit a single Israeli target. They were instead neutralised and shot down through an Israeli-American-Western coordinated effort. In strategic malice, Israel responded only by launching one single missile without an exploding warhead against an Iranian anti-missile unit. The aim was to send a message to Iran that Israel was capable of responding, but as long as the Iranian attack did not result in any casualties, there was no need for a lethal response.
Iranian Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emphasised to Revolutionary Guard generals that the significance of the response lay in the principle, not in deed. Then Iran fell silent. We no longer heard about its solidarity with the Palestinians amid tragedy. Tehran’s official statements no longer differed from those coming out of Arab capitals it accused of normalisation with Israel. Then, came the death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, which paved the way for early elections to choose a successor. The Iranians acted as if the incident distracted them from the plight of the Palestinians.
This does not mean that Iran has turned the page on confrontation with Israel. This confrontation, or rather its exploitation by Tehran, has been a major tool of Iran’s expansionist designs in the region. Under the pretext of solidarity with the Palestinians, as they are being slaughtered daily by the Israel’s relentless war machine, Iran has justified its ideological and militia encroachment in the region.
Therefore, when it became apparent to Tehran that Israel would not tolerate Hezbollah’s continued amassing of the means of war on its border (to further the Iranian project, not the “liberation of Palestine”), Iran waved the threat of mobilising loyalist militias from Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan to lend support to Hezbollah and prevent the Israelis from dealing a major blow to its Lebanese proxy.
Hezbollah is the foremost Iranian ideological project in the region. Lebanon’s geographical proximity to Israel provides Tehran with a geographically convenient base for escalation with Israel when necessary. Any major strike of the scope of the Israeli bombing of Gaza, which as described by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant as returning Lebanon to the Stone Age, would represent an important strategic setback to the Iranian hegemonic project in the region.
Iran knows that Israel is planning a major blow against Hezbollah. Its leaders realise, ironically, that what prevents the Israelis from hitting Hezbollah is the US opposition to the outbreak of a regional war. From this perspective, the United States had convinced Israel to use a missile without an exploding warhead against an anti-missile site deep inside Iran. Indeed, while Washington appeared to be pressuring Binyamin Netanyahu’s government to avoid the invasion of Rafah, it was blocking the transfer of important additional ammunition that might be used to attack Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. What now protects Hezbollah in Lebanon, and even prevents the wide targeting of pro-Iran militias, is the American-Western-Arab desire to prevent the eruption of an all-out war. The same countries which are accused of normalisation and of remaining silent about the Israeli massacres against the Palestinians are actually also those preventing the expansion of the war to Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. They are the ones who suggested a limited response formula to the Houthi attacks on maritime navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This formula confined the operations carried out by the Western naval coalition to protecting the waterways. It is the West’s Arab allies who have established red lines for international cooperation to protect maritime navigation in order not to target the Houthi leaders in Yemen or their Iranian advisors. Even the growing Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime is at the heart of mechanisms to mitigate escalation and prevent Syria from becoming an arena of confrontation between Iran and Israel. The prospective Israeli strike would clip the wings of Hezbollah, but leave it with enough power to preserve its political and security presence in Lebanon even if without the daily bragging about missiles and drones, or Iran replenishing its arsenal. Part of the discussed arrangements was the change in the Arab narrative about Hezbollah, no longer considered a “terrorist organisation” by the Arab League. But the most important part of the arrangements has been driven by Iranian cunning, which seeks to avoid sapping Hezbollah’s power and weaken pro-Iranian militias as this could undermine Iranian influence, in Iraq and beyond. When Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s highest ranking field commander, Talib Sami Abdullah (Abu Talib), a few days ago, the party distributed a picture of Abu Talib kissing the head of the Iranian commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, who was himself assassinated by the United States in Baghdad. A picture which illustrates well the Iranians’ ability to adapt to incurred losses as long as the main goal of the confrontation, namely wielding influence, remains intact. Americans strike blows but they forget about them, and their presidents change. The Israelis, in a remarkable sharing of the Iranian logic of setting goals and patiently striving to reach them, likewise neither abandon nor forget their goals. The coming war is a struggle for memories as well. What is certain is that what is happening to the Palestinians in Gaza now is the first item that will omitted from the memories of both sides.
*Dr Haitham El-Zobaidi is the executive editor of Al Arab Publishing Group.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 04-05/2024
UK's Labour Set to Sweep into Power with Huge Majority, Exit Poll Shows
Asharq Al-Awsat/July 04/2024
Keir Starmer will be Britain's next prime minister with his Labour Party set to win a massive majority in a parliamentary election, an exit poll on Thursday indicated, forecasting Rishi Sunak's Conservatives would suffer historic losses.
Center-left Labour was on course to capture 410 of the 650 seats in parliament, an astonishing reversal of fortunes from five years ago when it suffered its worst performance since 1935. The result would give Labour a majority of 170 and would bring the curtain down on 14 years of increasingly tumultuous Conservative-led government. "To everyone who has campaigned for Labour in this election, to everyone who voted for us and put their trust in our changed Labour Party - thank you," Starmer said on X. Sunak's party were forecast to only win 131 seats, the worst electoral performance in its history, as voters punished them for a cost-of-living crisis, and years of instability and in-fighting which has seen five different prime ministers since the Brexit vote of 2016. The centrist Liberal Democrats were predicted to capture 61 seats while the right-wing populist Reform UK party, headed by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage who had pledged to destroy the Conservative party, was forecast to win 13. The prediction for Reform was far better than expected, and the party comfortably took second place behind Labour in the first two seats to declare their results, pushing the Conservatives into third place. "Much of the damage to the Conservative Party tonight is being done by Reform, even if it is the Labour Party that proves to be the beneficiary," John Curtice, Britain's most respected pollster told the BBC. However, the exit poll suggests overall British voters have shifted support to the center-left, unlike in France where Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party made historic gains in an election last Sunday. It was not just the Conservatives whose vote was predicted to have collapsed. The pro-independence Scottish National Party was forecast to win only 10 seats, its worst showing since 2010, after a period of turmoil which has seen two leaders quit in little over a year. In the last six UK elections, only one exit poll has got the outcome wrong. Official results will follow over the next few hours. "If this exit poll is correct, then this is a historic defeat for the Conservative Party, one of the most resilient forces that have we have seen in British political history," Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos, which carried out the exit poll, told Reuters. "It looked like the Conservatives were going to be in power for 10 years and it has all fallen apart."
SUNAK 'FALL GUY'
Sunak stunned Westminster and many in his own party by calling the election earlier than he needed to in May with the Conservatives trailing Labour by some 20 points in opinion polls. He had hoped that the gap would narrow as had traditionally been the case in British elections, but the deficit has failed to budge in a fairly disastrous campaign. It started badly with him getting drenched by rain outside Downing Street as he announced the vote, before aides and Conservative candidates became caught up in a gambling scandal over suspicious bets placed on the date of the election. Sunak's early departure from D-Day commemorative events in France to do a TV interview angered veterans, and even those within his own party said it raised questions about his political acumen. If the exit poll proves right, it represents an incredible turnaround for Starmer and Labour, which critics and supporters said was facing an existential crisis just three years ago when it appeared to have lost its way after its 2019 drubbing. But a series of scandals - most notably revelations of parties in Downing Street during COVID lockdowns - undermined then prime minister Boris Johnson and its commanding poll leads evaporated. Liz Truss' disastrous six-week premiership, which followed Johnson being forced out at the end of 2022, cemented the decline, and Sunak was unable to make any dent in Labour's now commanding poll lead. "We deserved to lose. The Conservative Party just appears exhausted and out of ideas," Ed Costello, the chairman of the Grassroots Conservatives organization, which represents rank-and-file members, told Reuters. ""But it is not all Rishi Sunak’s fault. It is Boris Johnson and Liz Truss that have led the party to disaster. Rishi Sunak is just the fall guy."While polls have suggested that there is no great enthusiasm for Labour leader Starmer, his simple message that it was time for change appears to have resonated with voters. However, the predicted Labour result would not quite match the record levels achieved by the party under Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001 when the party captured 418 and 412 seats respectively.

Israel sends Mossad chief to Qatar for Gaza hostage negotiations: sources
AFP/July 05, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday ordered his spy chief to Qatar for talks with mediators on a Gaza war ceasefire that could see Hamas militants release hostages seized in the October 7 attacks, sources said. Amidst new optimism over a possible breakthrough, Netanyahu called a meeting of his security cabinet for late Thursday to discuss new Hamas proposals sent through Qatari and Egyptian mediators, reports said. Israel believes dozens of hostages are still alive in Gaza and with the war taking an increasing human toll in the devastated Palestinian territory both sides face mounting international pressure to reach a deal. Mossad chief David Barnea was to lead an Israeli delegation to Qatar that has spent months trying to bring the enemies to the negotiating table, according to a source with knowledge of the talks. He was expected in Doha on Friday and was to meet the Gulf state’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Barnea’s delegation “is traveling to Qatar in a continuation of talks on a ceasefire and hostage deal. “He will meet with the Qatari prime minister for discussions aiming to bring the parties closer to a deal in Gaza,” the source said on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of talks. US President Joe Biden praised the decision to send a delegation in a telephone conversation with Netanyahu, the White House said. Biden welcomed the decision to have Israeli negotiators “engage” with mediators in a bid “to close out the deal.”The United States believes Israel and Hamas have a “pretty significant opening” to reach an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of hostages, a senior US official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Hamas proposal “moves the process forward and may provide the basis for closing the deal,” while stressing it does not mean an agreement was likely in coming days, and that “significant work” remains. Hamas had demanded an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal as a prelude to any hostage deal. Israel has countered that there can be no end to the war without the release of hostages. Netanyahu has also repeatedly vowed that the Gaza campaign will not end until Hamas’s military and government capabilities have been destroyed.
Hamas said late Wednesday that it had sent new “ideas” for a potential deal and Netanyahu’s office said the government was “evaluating” them. Qatar, Egypt and the United States have been mediating between the two sides and sources close to their efforts said they have been pushing for several weeks to bridge the “gaps” between the foes. Biden announced a pathway to a truce deal in May which he said had been proposed by Israel. This included a six-week truce to allow for talks, the release of hostages and eventually a program to rebuild devastated Gaza. “There are important developments in the latest proposals with positive options for both sides,” said a diplomat briefed on the latest proposals. “This time the Americans are very serious about this.”The war started with the October 7 attack on southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of 1,195 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. Hamas militants also seized 251 hostages, 116 of whom remain in Gaza including 42 the army says are dead. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 38,011 people, also mostly civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry.

US sees major breakthrough in Israel-Hamas talks — senior official
REUTERS/July 04, 2024
WASHINGTON: Hamas made a pretty significant adjustment in its position over a potential hostage release deal with Israel, a senior US administration official said on Thursday, expressing hope that it would lead to a pact that would be a step to a permanent ceasefire. “We’ve had a breakthrough,” the official told reporters on a conference call, adding there were still outstanding issues related to implementation of the agreement and that a deal was not expected to be closed in a period of days.

Israel sends delegation to negotiate hostage release deal with Hamas
REUTERS/July 04, 2024
CAIRO/JERUSALEM/GAZA: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US President Joe Biden on Thursday he has decided to send a delegation to resume stalled negotiations on a hostage release deal with Hamas, their administrations said. In a phone call between the two leaders, Netanyahu repeated his position that Israel would only end its nearly nine-month war in Gaza when all its objectives had been achieved, his office said in a statement. Israel’s Channel 12 said the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency would lead the Israeli delegation for the talks, though this was not immediately confirmed. Netanyahu is scheduled later on Thursday to have consultations with his negotiating team, then discuss the hostage release talks with his security cabinet. The White House said the two leaders discussed the recent response received from Hamas. “The president welcomed the prime minister’s decision to authorize his negotiators to engage with US, Qatari, and Egyptian mediators in an effort to close out the deal,” it said in a statement. It was not clear where the Israeli delegation would go to resume the talks. Prior efforts to end the Gaza conflict were mediated by Egypt and Qatar, with talks held in both locations. Israel received Hamas’ response on Wednesday to a proposal made public at the end of May by Biden that would include the release of about 120 hostages held in Gaza and a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave. A Palestinian official close to the mediation effort told Reuters that Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza, has shown flexibility over some clauses that would allow a framework agreement to be reached should Israel approve. Two Hamas officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Hamas has said any deal must end the war and bring a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel maintains it will accept only temporary pauses in the fighting until Hamas is eradicated. The plan entails the gradual release of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza and the pullback of Israeli forces over the first two phases, and the freeing of Palestinian prisoners. The third phase involves the reconstruction of the war-shattered territory and return of the remains of deceased hostages.

Gaza death toll surges past 38,000, Health Ministry says
Associated Press/July 04, 2024
The Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said Thursday that the Palestinian death toll from nearly nine months of war has surged past 38,000. The ministry said that in the last 24 hours, the bodies of 58 people had been brought to hospitals, bringing the overall death toll to 38,011. It said more than 87,000 people have been wounded in the fighting. The ministry does not distinguish between fighters and noncombatants in its count, but many of the dead are said to be women and children.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP's earlier story follows below. TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israel's Cabinet was set to convene Thursday to discuss Hamas' latest response to a U.S.-backed proposal for a phased cease-fire in Gaza, as diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the nine-month war stirred back to life after a weekslong hiatus. Fighting, meanwhile, has intensified between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, with the militant group saying it fired more than 200 rockets and exploding drones into northern Israel to avenge the killing of a senior commander in an Israeli airstrike the day before. The relatively low-level conflict has literally set the border ablaze, and raised fears of a potentially even more devastating war in the Middle East. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks if there is a cease-fire between Hamas — a fellow Iran-backed ally — and Israel. The United States has rallied world support behind a plan that would see the release of all of the scores of hostages still held by the militant group in return for a lasting truce and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. But until now, neither side appears to have fully embraced it.
Hamas suggested "amendments" last month, some of which the U.S. said were unworkable, without providing specifics. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed that the original proposal was an Israeli one, but has raised doubts over whether it would end the war — a key Hamas demand. Hamas confirmed Wednesday that it had sent another response to Egypt and Qatar, which are mediating the talks, without providing details. A U.S. official said the Biden administration was examining the response, calling it constructive but saying more work needed to be done. The official, who wasn't authorized to comment publicly, spoke on condition of anonymity.
An Israeli official said Netanyahu would convene a Cabinet meeting Thursday to discuss the latest developments surrounding the negotiations. The official, who wasn't authorized to discuss the meeting with media, spoke on condition of anonymity. Israel would likely hold additional consultations before making a final decision on any amended proposal. Hamas political official Bassem Naim said that the group has neither accepted nor rejected the American proposal, and has "responded with some ideas to bridge the gap" between the two sides, without elaborating. Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' top political leader, has shared suggestions with Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish officials, the group said in a statement late Wednesday. U.S. officials have said the latest proposal has new language that was proposed to Egypt and Qatar on Saturday and addresses indirect negotiations that are set to commence during the first phase of the three-phase deal that U.S. President Joe Biden laid out in a May 31 speech. The first phase calls for a "full and complete cease-fire," a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, older people and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The proposal called for the parties to negotiate the terms of the second phase during the 42 days of phase one. Under the current proposal, Hamas could release all of the remaining men, both civilians and soldiers, during the second phase. In return, Israel could free an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The releases wouldn't occur until "sustainable calm" takes effect and all Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza. The third phase would see the return of the remains of hostages.
The transition from the first to the second phase has appeared to be the main sticking point. Hamas is concerned that Israel will restart the war after the first phase, perhaps after making unrealistic demands in the talks. Israeli officials have expressed concern that Hamas will do the same, drawing out the talks and the initial cease-fire indefinitely without releasing the remaining captives.
In a lengthy television interview last month, Netanyahu said that he was prepared to make a "partial deal," but was committed to continuing the war "after a pause" in order to annihilate Hamas. Later, speaking before Israel's parliament, he said Israel remains committed to the deal outlined by Biden. The war began when Hamas-led militants launched a surprise attack on Oct. 7 into southern Israel, attacking multiple army bases and farming communities and killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians. They abducted another 250 people. more than 100 of whom were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November. Militants are still holding around 80 hostages and the remains of 40 others. Israel launched a major offensive in response to the Oct. 7 attack that has killed more than 37,900 Palestinians, according to health officials in Gaza, who don't say how many were civilians or militants. The war has caused vast destruction across the territory, displaced most of its population of 2.3 million — often multiple times — caused widespread hunger and raised fears of famine.

Israel weighs Hamas' latest response to Gaza cease-fire proposal as diplomatic efforts are revived
Tia Goldenberg And Kareem Chehayeb/TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/July 4, 2024
Israel's Cabinet was set to convene Thursday to discuss Hamas' latest response to a U.S.-backed proposal for a phased cease-fire in Gaza, as diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the nine-month war stirred back to life after a weekslong hiatus. Fighting, meanwhile, intensified between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, with the militant group saying it fired more than 200 rockets and exploding drones into northern Israel to avenge the killing of a senior commander in an Israeli airstrike the day before.
The relatively low-level conflict has literally set the border ablaze and raised fears of a potentially even more devastating war in the Middle East. Hezbollah has said it will halt its attacks if there is a cease-fire between Hamas — a fellow Iran-backed ally — and Israel. The United States has rallied world support behind a plan that would see the release of all of the scores of hostages still held by the militant group in return for a lasting truce and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. But until now, neither side appears to have fully embraced it. Hamas suggested “amendments” to the proposal last month, some of which the U.S. said were unworkable, without providing specifics. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed that the original proposal was an Israeli one, but has raised doubts over whether it would end the war — a key Hamas demand. Hamas confirmed Wednesday that it had sent another response to Egypt and Qatar, which are mediating the talks, without providing details. A U.S. official said the Biden administration was examining the response, calling it constructive but saying more work needed to be done. The official, who wasn't authorized to comment publicly, spoke on condition of anonymity. An Israeli official said Netanyahu would convene a Cabinet meeting Thursday to discuss the latest developments surrounding the negotiations. The official, who wasn't authorized to discuss the meeting with media, spoke on condition of anonymity. Israel would likely hold additional consultations before making a final decision on any amended proposal. As cease-fire talks appeared to be gaining new steam, the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said the death toll in the war had climbed past 38,000. Hamas political official Bassem Naim said that the group has neither accepted nor rejected the American proposal, and has “responded with some ideas to bridge the gap” between the two sides, without elaborating. Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' top political leader, has shared suggestions with Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish officials, the group said in a statement late Wednesday.
U.S. officials have said the latest proposal has new language that was proposed to Egypt and Qatar on Saturday and addresses indirect negotiations that are set to commence during the first phase of the three-phase deal that U.S. President Joe Biden laid out in a May 31 speech. The first phase calls for a “full and complete cease-fire,” a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas of Gaza and the release of a number of hostages, including women, older people and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The proposal called for the parties to negotiate the terms of the second phase during the 42 days of phase one. Under the current proposal, Hamas could release all of the remaining men, both civilians and soldiers, during the second phase. In return, Israel could free an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The releases wouldn't occur until “sustainable calm” takes effect and all Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza. The third phase would see the return of the remains of hostages. The transition from the first to the second phase has appeared to be the main sticking point. Hamas is concerned that Israel will restart the war after the first phase, perhaps after making unrealistic demands in the talks. Israeli officials have expressed concern that Hamas will do the same, drawing out the talks and the initial cease-fire indefinitely without releasing the remaining captives.
In a lengthy television interview last month, Netanyahu said that he was prepared to make a “partial deal,” but was committed to continuing the war “after a pause” in order to annihilate Hamas. Later, speaking before Israel's parliament, he said Israel remains committed to the deal outlined by Biden. The war began when Hamas-led militants launched a surprise attack on Oct. 7 into southern Israel, attacking multiple army bases and farming communities and killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians. They abducted another 250 people. more than 100 of whom were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November. Militants are still holding around 80 hostages and the remains of 40 others. Israel launched a major offensive in response to the Oct. 7 attack that has killed more than 38,000, according to health officials in Gaza, who don't say how many were civilians or militants. The war has caused vast destruction across the territory, displaced most of its population of 2.3 million — often multiple times — caused widespread hunger and raised fears of famine.

Life and death in Gaza's 'safe zone' where food is scarce and Israel strikes without warning
Associated Press/July 4, 2024
An Israeli airstrike slammed into a residential building next to the main medical center in Gaza's southern city of Khan Younis, wounding at least seven people, hospital authorities and witnesses said Wednesday. Nasser Hospital sits in the western part of the city, which is inside the Israeli-designated humanitarian "safe zone" where Palestinians have been told to go, according to maps provided by Israel's military. The latest Israeli evacuation order affected about 250,000 people earlier this week across wide swathes of Gaza, the United Nations estimated. As dust from Wednesday's strike billowed through a street near Nasser Hospital, an Associated Press contributor filmed people running in all directions — some rushing toward the destruction and some away. Men carried two young boys, apparently wounded. Later, civil defense first responders and bystanders picked their way across chunks of cement and twisted metal, searching for people who might have been buried. Displaced families ordered out of eastern Khan Younis on Monday have struggled to find places to live in overcrowded shelters and open areas in the western parts of the city. Wednesday's airstrike hit an area that also includes a school-turned-shelter for displaced people, many of whom are living in makeshift tents. "We were sitting in this tent, three people, and we were surprised by the rubble and dust," said one man, Jalal Lafi, who was displaced from the city of Rafah in the south. "The house was bombed without any warning, hit by two missiles in a row, one after another," he said, looking back over his shoulder at the rubble, his hair and clothes covered in grey soot. The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the strike. Andrea De Domenico, the head of the U.N. humanitarian office for the Palestinian territories, said Gaza is "the only place in the world where people cannot find a safe refuge, and can't leave the front line." Even in so-called safe areas there are bombings, he told reporters Wednesday in Jerusalem. An Israeli airstrike Tuesday killed a prominent Palestinian doctor and eight members of his extended family, just hours after they complied with military orders to evacuate their home and moved to the Israeli-designated safe zone. Most Palestinians seeking safety are either heading to a coastal area called Muwasi or the nearby city of Deir al-Balah, De Domenico said.
The Israeli military said Tuesday it estimates at least 1.8 million Palestinians are now in the humanitarian zone it declared, covering a stretch of about 14 kilometers (8.6 miles) along the Mediterranean. Much of that area is now blanketed with tent camps that lack sanitation and medical facilities with limited access to aid, U.N. and humanitarian groups say. Families live amid mountains of trash and streams of water contaminated by sewage. It's been "a major challenge" to even bring food to those areas, De Domenico said. Although the U.N. is now able to meet basic needs in northern Gaza, he said it's very difficult getting aid into the south. Israel says it allows aid to enter via the Kerem Shalom crossing with southern Gaza, and blames the U.N. for not doing enough to move the aid. The U.N. says fighting, Israeli military restrictions and general chaos — including criminal gangs taking aid off trucks in Gaza — make it nearly impossible for aid workers to pick up truckloads of goods that Israel has let in. The amount of food and other supplies getting into Gaza has plunged since Israel's offensive into Rafah began two months ago, causing widespread hunger and sparking fears of famine. "It's an unendurable life," said Anwar Salman, a displaced Palestinian. "If they want to kill us, let them do it. Let them drop a nuclear bomb and finish us. We are fed up. We are tired. We are dying every day."

Tensions with Iran spotlight Israel's hidden nuclear arsenal
Paul Iddon/Business Insider/July 4, 2024
Israel now waging war on three battle fronts — Palestinian territories, Lebanon, and SyriaScroll back up to restore default view. Israel is one of the world's few countries armed with nukes and multiple means to deliver them. An Israeli aerospace official recently broached these "doomsday weapons." "Israel's triad remains remarkably powerful for a country its size," an aviation expert said. The prospect of a full-scale war between Israel and the powerful Hezbollah militia in Lebanon has sent tensions spiking and briefly highlighted the power of Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons.
Israel is one of the world's few countries armed with nukes and multiple means to deliver them, a capability recently referenced by an Israeli official with a leading government-run aerospace manufacturer. "If we understand that there is an existential danger here, and that Iran, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and all the countries of the Middle East decide that it is time to settle against us, I understand that we have the capabilities to use doomsday weapons," Yair Katz, chairman of the Israel Aerospace Industries Workers' Council, reportedly said on Saturday. He was speaking a day after Iran's United Nations mission warned that "an obliterating war will ensue" if Israel commits "full-scale military aggression" against the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. It also declared that in this scenario, "all options" are on the table, including "the full involvement of all resistance fronts," a clear reference to Iran's militia proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the other countries Katz specifically mentioned. By invoking doomsday weapons, it was clear Katz was alluding to Israel's nuclear weapons arsenal — an arsenal over which neither he nor IAI have any command-and-control. But his use of the word "capabilities" is a reminder that Israel has ground, air, and sea-based delivery systems for its nuclear weapons. In other words, a complete nuclear triad. There are eight countries in the world with declared nuclear arsenals, four of which — the United States, China, India, and Russia — have a complete nuclear triad. Pakistan has a partial triad, making it a close fifth. Israel's triad has some notable distinctions and limitations compared to those of the other four. "Israel's nuclear triad bears the hallmarks of a regional nuclear triad as seen in India and Pakistan, rather than seeking globe-spanning strike capability," Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist, told Business Insider. "Ballistic missile submarines with submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers are unnecessary, even though Israel does face some range and geography complications vis-a-vis Iran in particular," Roblin said. "So, like Pakistan, Israel can rely on fighters, conventionally powered submarines, and submarine-launched cruise missiles for what it's trying to do.""Israel's triad remains remarkably powerful for a country its size."
Experts believe Israel has three main delivery systems for its nuclear warheads. Israel has ground-based Jericho 3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Built by Israel Aerospace Industries, these IRBMs are capable of hitting targets at least 3,000 miles away. Israel also has German-built Dolphin 2 diesel-electric submarines widely believed to carry nuclear-armed Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, which can strike targets up to 930 miles away and purportedly have a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead. That modest submarine fleet gives Israel a second-strike capability in case its ground-based Jerichos are destroyed in an enemy first strike. And its fighter jets can drop nuclear bombs.
Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, noted that one primary way Israel's nuclear triad differs from its counterparts is its regional focus. "Israel's nuclear deterrent is not designed to ward off great powers like Russia or China, but rather regional powers like Egypt and Iran," Bohl told BI. "Should it ever face a great power nuclear confrontation that would inevitably drag in the United States, which is certainly better equipped to handle such a thing."
"Israel does have purported capabilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles that would allow limited strikes extra-regionally, but again, none of these would have the impact of a great power," Bohl said. "From what is known about the Jericho systems, they are both silo and land-based, but the reality is that all such land-based systems are vulnerable to first strikes, which is a key reason why the Israelis keep the triad," Bohl said. "Most believe specific IAF F-16 and F-15I Ra'am units have been assigned nuclear roles, with the latter fighters with their greater range and payload taking on added importance in the event of a long-distance war with Iran," Roblin said. Israel also boasts a sizable fleet of fifth-generation F-35I stealth jets, which are more capable of penetrating enemy air defenses to destroy strategic targets. It's unclear if Israel's F-35s can currently carry nuclear payloads. Roblin noted the US Air Force only recently certified the F-35A for nuclear missions. "Whether and how Israel has integrated nuclear arms into its customized F-35Is is another mystery box," Roblin said. "Though I assume they will eventually assume a nuclear role if they haven't already —--they are just so much more survivable for delivery of gravity or glide bombs."Israeli jets can also fire Popeye cruise missiles for standoff strikes. Israel has developed several air-launched ballistic missiles, some of which it used in a strike against central Iran in April. However, it's unclear if Israel has air-launched ballistic missiles fitted with nuclear warheads. "The main challenge for making these nuclear-capable is Israel's capacity to miniaturize nuclear warheads vis-a-vis how heavy a warhead a given missile can carry," Roblin said. "So, weapons that support bigger warheads are easier to convert." The IAF had nuclear gravity bombs as far back as 1973. Roblin pointed out that the US has "invested billions" in turning its B61 nuclear bombs into nuclear bunker busters. He suspects Israel could have undertaken a similar project. "If Israel has more ambitious counterforce intentions for its air-based nukes, as in hoping they could be used to reliably destroy enemy nuclear missile silos and storage areas, then perhaps it has quietly developed its equivalent of the US's new B61s, say based around the SPICE glide bomb kit," Roblin said. While extensive for a state Israel's size, RANE's Bohl highlighted some limitations of the Israeli triad, noting that Israel's true strength lies in having Washington's back.
"Israel's limitations are in part its relatively limited arsenal and more constrained systems for deployment beyond the region," Bohl said. "But within the region, Israel is certainly unsurpassed in its nuclear capabilities.""Given that the United States would serve as a nuclear umbrella for Israel for extra-regional threats, these limitations are certainly nothing that constrains Israel's nuclear deterrent from its primary targets like Iran," Bohl added. The RANE analyst also noted that the US's own forces represent a much more dangerous retaliation threat than Israel's submarines for any country that considers striking Israel with nukes. "The true second strike threat for Israel is the United States itself, which in a theoretical nuclear war scenario would almost certainly retaliate on Israel's behalf should it ever suffer a first strike from a nuclear rival," Bohl said. "This makes it so that a second strike capability is important in terms of deterrence for full-scale escalation from a power like Iran.""But from a strictly tactical perspective, it would be the United States that truly serves as Israel's most effective second strike system."

Israel approves largest West Bank land seizure in three decades, rights group says
Lucas Lilieholm, Hande Atay Alam and Tamar Michaelis, CNN/July 4, 2024
Israel’s government has approved a large land seizure in the occupied West Bank – the biggest since the 1993 Oslo Accords set out a path for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, according to the Israeli rights group Peace Now. The Israeli military’s Civil Administration department, which manages civilian matters in the West Bank, issued the declaration on June 25 converting the area into state land, according to a document from the body, but the official notice wasn’t posted until Wednesday, Peace Now said. The declaration covers a 1,270 hectare (3,138 acre) section of the Jordan Valley in the eastern West Bank near Jericho, the document from the Civil Administration shows. Peace Now, an Israeli rights group that monitors illegal Israeli settlement expansion, criticized the move in a statement on Wednesday, saying that the seizure makes it even more difficult to establish “a Palestinian state alongside Israel.”The group also noted that the latest declaration followed several previous announcements that have made this year the biggest, by far, for Israeli land seizures in the Palestinian territory, according to data it has collected that dates back to 1993. According to the report, declaring land as state property is one of Israel’s primary methods for asserting control over the occupied territories. Once land is designated as state land, Israel no longer recognizes it as privately owned by Palestinians. CNN has reached out to the spokesperson for Israel’s Civil Administration for comment about this specific claim by Peace Now, but has yet to hear back.
‘Thwarting’ Palestinian statehood
Separately, on Monday Israel’s Higher Planning Council, the government body responsible for greenlighting new housing construction in parts of the West Bank, said it would move to approve thousands of new housing units in dozens of Israeli settlements, according to Peace Now. Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who also holds a position in the Defense Ministry with significant control over civilian matters in the occupied West Bank, celebrated the move in a Wednesday post on X. “Building the good country and thwarting the establishment of a Palestinian state. MTA is meeting this morning to approve over 5,000 housing units,” he wrote, using an acronym for The Higher Planning Council. Smotrich spoke about preventing the occupied West Bank from becoming a part of an independent Palestinian state, according to leaked audio of a speech he gave in June. On Sunday, Israel sparked condemnation after the finance minister announced plans to legally recognize five unauthorized Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Iranians go to the polls again ... or will they?
ARAB NEWS/July 04, 2024
JEDDAH: The last two candidates in Iran’s presidential election run-off have held their final rallies before voters go to the polls on Friday. Ultraconservative Saeed Jalili addressed a mosque in Tehran while his “reformist” rival Masoud Pezeshkian spoke at a nearby sports stadium. Despite crowds of supporters, authorities fear a repeat of last week’s embarrassingly low turnout, when less than 40 percent of those eligible bothered to vote. At his rally, Jalili promised “strength and progress” as posters of the late former President Ebrahim Raisi adorned the mosque walls, with the slogan: “A world of opportunities, Iran leaps forward.”Chants from his supporters of “All Iran says Jalili” echoed round the room. Women dressed all in black sat in a designated section, separated from the men. One backer, Maryam Naroui, 40, said Jalili was “the best option for the country’s security.”
At Pezeshkian’s stadium rally, women in colorful hihabs mingled with the men. “We can manage our country with unity and cohesion,” Pezeshkian told them. “I will resolve internal disputes to the best of my ability.”Pezeshkian has promised to oppose “morality police” patrols enforcing the mandatory headscarf and to ease long-standing internet restrictions. One of his supporters, Sadegh Azari, 45, said: “I believe if Pezeshkian wins ... the people will have hope for the future.”

Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon who rose to power in parliament, runs to be Iran's next president
Jon Gambrell And Amir Vahdat/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Thu, July 4, 2024
After the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, Iranian lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian wrote that it was “unacceptable in the Islamic Republic to arrest a girl for her hijab and then hand over her dead body to her family.”Days later as nationwide protests and a bloody crackdown on all dissent took hold, he warned that those “insulting the supreme leader ... will create nothing except long-lasting anger and hatred in the society."The stances by Pezeshkian, now a 69-year-old candidate for Iran's next president, highlight the dualities of being a reformist politician within Iran's Shiite theocracy — always pushing for change but never radically challenging the system overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. After Iran's June 28 presidential election saw the lowest turnout in history, Pezeshkian now must convince a public angered by years of economic pain and bloody crackdowns to go vote in a runoff poll on Friday — even though a majority of them earlier decided not to cast ballots at all. “We are losing our backing in the society, because of our behavior, high prices, our treatment of girls and because we censor the internet," Pezeshkian said at a televised debate Monday night. "People are discontent with us because of our behavior.”Pezeshkian will face the hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in Friday's election. Jalili already may hold an edge as another hard-liner knocked out in last week's election, parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, urged his supporters to back him. Pezeshkian has aligned himself with other moderate and reformist figures during his campaign to replace the late President Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-line protégé of Khamenei killed in a helicopter crash in May. His main advocate has been former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who reached Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that saw sanctions lifted in exchange for the atomic program being drastically curtailed.
Iranian rushed into the streets in a carnival-like expression of hope that the deal would finally see their country enter the international community. But in 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord, setting in motion a series of attacks across the wider Middle East. Iran now enriches uranium to near-weapons-grade levels while having a large enough stockpile to build several bombs if it chose. That, coupled with the bloody crackdown on dissent that followed nationwide protests over Amini's death and the mandatory hijab, have fueled voters' disenchantment. Pezeshkian has offered comments suggesting he wants better relations with the West, a return to the atomic accord and less enforcement of the hijab law. “The inclusion of the reformist Pezeshkian, who was likely qualified by authorities to boost voter turnout, failed to halt the trend of declining participation,” the geopolitical risk firm the Eurasia Group said in an analysis Tuesday. “Regardless of who wins the runoff, it is clear that the majority of Iranians have little faith in the governing system, regard elections to be sham affairs and are unlikely to participate even when an ostensible reformist is on the ballot.”
Pezeshkian was born Sept. 29, 1954, in Mahabad in northwestern Iran to an Azeri father and a Kurdish mother. He speaks Azeri and long has focused on the affairs of Iran's vast minority ethnic groups. Like many, he served in the Iran-Iraq war, sending medical teams to the battlefront. He became a heart surgeon and served as the head of the Tabriz University of Medical Sciences. However, personal tragedy shaped his life after a 1994 car crash killed his wife, Fatemeh Majidi, and a daughter. The doctor never remarried and raised his remaining two sons and a daughter alone.
Pezeshkian entered politics first as the country's deputy health minister and later as the health minister under the administration of reformist President Mohammad Khatami.
Almost immediately, he found himself involved in the struggle between hard-liners and reformists, attending the autopsy of Zahra Kazemi, a freelance photographer who held both Canadian and Iranian citizenship. She was detained while taking pictures at a protest at Tehran's notorious Evin prison, was tortured and died in custody. In 2006, Pezeshkian was elected as a lawmaker representing Tabriz. He later served as a deputy parliament speaker and backed reformist and moderate causes, though analysts often described him more as an “independent” than allied with the voting blocs. That independent label also has been embraced by Pezeshkian in the campaign. Yet Pezeshkian at the same time honored Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, on one occasion wearing its uniform to parliament. He repeatedly criticized the United States and praised the Guard for shooting down an American drone in 2019, saying it "delivered a strong punch in the mouth of the Americans and proved to them that our country will not surrender.”In 2011, Pezeshkian registered to run for president, but withdrew his candidacy. In 2021, he found himself and other prominent candidates barred from running by authorities, allowing an easy win for Raisi.
In this campaign, Pezeshkian's advocates have sought to contrast him against the “Taliban” policies of Jalili. His campaign slogan is “For Iran,” a possible play on the popular song by the Grammy Awarding-winning Iranian singer-songwriter Shervin Hajipour called “Baraye,” or “For” in English. Hajipour has been sentenced to more than three years in prison over his anthem for the Amini protests. Yet it remains unclear if he'll get the votes this Friday after the low turnout last week, something the candidate has acknowledged. “With all the noisy arguments between me and him, only 40% (of eligible voters) voted," Pezeshkian acknowledged at his final televised debate with Jalili on Tuesday. "Sixty percent don’t accept us. So people have issues with us.”

The Kremlin says India's Modi will visit Russia on July 8-9, hold talks with Putin
Vladimir Isachenkov And Ashok Sharma/MOSCOW (AP)/July 4, 2024
The Kremlin on Thursday said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia on July 8-9 and hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The visit was first announced by Russian officials last month, but the dates have not been previously disclosed. Russia has had strong ties with India since the Cold War, and New Delhi’s importance as a key trading partner for Moscow has grown since the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. China and India have become key buyers of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies that shut most Western markets for Russian exports. Under Modi’s leadership, India has avoided condemning Russia’s action in Ukraine while emphasizing the need for a peaceful settlement. The partnership between Moscow and New Delhi has become fraught, however, since Russia started developing closer ties with India’s main rival, China, because of the hostilities in Ukraine. Modi on Thursday skipped the summit of a security grouping created by Moscow and Beijing to counter Western alliances. Modi sent his foreign minister to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at its annual meeting in Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana. The meeting is being attended by Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indian media reports speculated that the recently reelected Modi was busy with the Parliament session last week. Modi last visited Russia in 2019 for an economic forum in the far eastern port of Vladivostok. He last traveled to Moscow in 2015. Putin last met with Modi in September 2022 at a summit of the SCO in Uzbekistan. In 2021, Putin also traveled to New Delhi and held talks with the Indian leader. Tensions between Beijing and New Delhi have continued since a confrontation in June 2020 along the disputed China-India border in which rival troops fought with rocks, clubs and fists. At least 20 Indian troops and four Chinese soldiers were killed. After his reelection to a third straight term. Modi attended the G7 meeting in Italy’s Apulia region last month and addressed artificial intelligence, energy, and regional issues in Africa and the Mediterranean. In the early 1990s, the Soviet Union was the source of about 70% of Indian army weapons, 80% of its air force systems and 85% of its navy platforms. India bought its first aircraft carrier, INS Vikramaditya, from Russia in 2004. It had served in the former Soviet Union and later in the Russian navy.
With the Russian supply line hit by the fighting in Ukraine, India has been reducing its dependency on Russian arms and diversifying its defense procurements, buying more from the U.S., Israel, France and Italy.

Turkey's Erdogan wants to play both sides in the Ukraine war. Putin isn't having it.
Huileng Tan/Business Insider/July 4, 2024
Zelenskyy explains his plan to win against Putin and the future of his presidencyScroll back up to restore default view. Erdoğan offered to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war, but the Kremlin declined the proposal. Turkey's pro-Western tilt and Ukraine support have strained the Erdoğan-Putin relationship. Economic woes and defense ties with Ukraine challenge Turkey-Russia partnership. Turkey's President Tayyip Erdoğan has long been eyeing the role of peacemaker in Russia's war with Ukraine.
Erdoğan most recently pursued this ambition again on Wednesday when he told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ankara could help end the war, Reuters reported, citing the Turkish presidency. The two leaders were speaking on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan, which Putin is attending in person.
But Putin appears cool to Erdoğan's advances. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, told local media it was "impossible" for the Turkish leader to play peacemaker. Peskov did not elaborate on the reason, but there are new cracks in Turkey and Russia's relationship as Erdoğan navigates a years-long economic crisis and a new political landscape at home after his party lost local elections earlier this year.
Putin criticized Turkey for tilting to West
Turkey is a NATO member, but it has been balancing its relations with Russia, Ukraine, and the West through the war while acknowledging Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. "One of the main irritants for the Kremlin is Ankara's position on the war in Ukraine. While Turkish statements in support of Ukraine's territorial integrity have never been to Moscow's liking, they have not prompted a backlash," Ruslan Suleymanov, a research fellow at ADA University in Azerbaijan, wrote on Wednesday. But Erdoğan and Putin also have a personal relationship, and both have referred to each other as a "dear friend." Erdoğan has even said he trusts Russia as much as he trusts the West. However, "the special personal partnership between Putin and Erdoğan is deteriorating rapidly," Suleymanov wrote in his post for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Just last month, Putin publicly criticized Turkey by alluding to a partnership between a Turkish defense company and Ukraine. "I would like to note that Turkey is cooperating with Ukraine in some spheres," Putin said in a meeting with global news agencies. He then alleged that Ukrainian drones were attacking gas pipelines supplying Turkey.
He also threw shade on Ankara's economic tilt to the West, saying "it seems to me that the economic bloc of the Turkish government has shifted focus to borrowing loans, attracting investment and receiving grants from Western financial institutions."He added the warning if "this is connected to restrictions on Türkiye's trade and economic ties with Russia, the Turkish economy will lose more than it can gain."In 2022, a Russian state-owned company transferred $20 billion to a subsidiary to build an important nuclear power plant in Turkey. A Turkish official told Bloomberg it was a goodwill gesture from Putin for Erdoğan's brokering of a deal to export gains out of Ukraine. In 2023, Russia agreed to defer Turkish payments for $600 million worth of natural gas exports. "The Kremlin was clearly counting on Erdoğan to repay the favor upon reelection. Instead, amid difficult economic conditions at home, the Turkish president has adopted a much more pro-Western course than Moscow had anticipated," wrote Suleymanov. Other issues standing in the way of Turkey and Russia's relationship include an F16 jet deal with the US and slowing bilateral trade due to US secondary sanctions. Turkey also backed Sweden's bid to join NATO and joined a Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland last month, which Russia did not join and called "absurd." Ankara and Moscow are still playing nice, but Putin has repeatedly postponed a trip to Turkey that was first scheduled for February — a sign that the two countries' relationship "relationship is worsening dramatically," wrote Suleymanov, who expects the rift between the two this time to be serious and long-lasting.

Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on July 04-05/2024
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gets powerful ships to confront adversaries well beyond the Persian Gulf
Benjamin Brimelow/ Business Insider/July 4, 2024
How the Iranian-backed Houthi militia compares to the US-led task force in the Red SeaScroll back up to restore default view. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is building a fleet capable of operations on the high seas. Its new missile corvettes are the most heavily armed combatant ships in its fleet. It also converted a container carrier into a mothership for drones and special forces. In the last three years, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has commissioned hundreds of new vessels. Most are newer variants of the missile, rocket, and heavy machine-gun-clad speedboats that have long formed the backbone of the IRGCN's fleet, but beginning in 2022, the IRGCN began commissioning new classes of warships capable of operating on the high seas. The vessels, four newly designed missile-armed catamaran corvettes and a container ship converted into an expeditionary sea base, bring new capabilities to the hardline force known for carrying out dangerous missions like attaching mines to ship hulls and hijacking merchant ships, giving Iran options to keep adversaries with advanced navies and air forces like Saudi Arabia and the US off-balance. The largest ships ever to be commissioned into its service, the vessels enable the IRGCN to operate major surface combatants with long-range anti-ship and anti-air weapons, and also helps the historically littoral force to pursue a new mission only recently given to it: to project power into the high seas via expeditionary operations. With a fourth catamaran missile corvette on the way and another container ship being converted into a drone carrier, the IRGCN's future fleet is gaining the larger ships and firepower needed to confront its adversaries beyond the Persian Gulf.
Catamaran missile corvettes
Founded in 1985, the IRGCN is the naval branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a paramilitary organization that operates as the ideological steward of Iran's revolution separate from the national military and which answers directly to Tehran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Numbering around 25,000 personnel, in 2007, the IRGCN was tasked with the security of the Persian Gulf, while Iran's national navy was given responsibility for the waters of the inland Caspian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and beyond. Responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth that dog-legs into the Persian Gulf, is shared between the two forces. Since its inception, the IRGCN has employed an asymmetric doctrine that utilizes swarm and guerilla tactics with an emphasis on numbers, speed, mobility, and geographical advantages. They are known for provocative tactics that harass and threaten US Navy warships and civilian merchant vessels. Operating in conjunction with Iran's land-based missiles and aircraft, the IRGCN can mount rapid sea assaults that exploit the islands and contours of Iran's coast. They rely extensively on hundreds of smaller vessels, namely fast attack craft (FAC) and fast inshore attack craft (FAIC) like those of the Tondar and Peykaap-classes which are armed with heavy machine guns, rockets, anti-ship missiles, and torpedoes to swarm enemy warships that may also be under attack from loitering munitions.
On September 5, 2022, the IRGCN diverged from its usual procurement practices when it commissioned the Shahid Soleimani, the lead ship of a new class of corvettes named after the leader of the IRGC's elite Quds Force who was killed in a US drone strike in 2020. At 213 feet long, 47 feet wide, and displacing an estimated 600 tons, it is one of the largest surface combatants the IRGCN has ever adopted.
The class utilizes a unique twin-hulled catamaran design. The design offers increased speed and stability at the expense of volume to carry more fuel or armaments. Though rare for frontline warships, some major navies do possess catamaran corvettes, including China, Russia, Taiwan, and Norway.
The IRGCN itself has been operating a single catamaran called the Shahid Nazeri since 2016. Despite being lightly armed, it has a record of harassing US vessels and civilian ships in the Persian Gulf.
But while Shahid Nazeri has few armaments, the Soleimani-class corvettes are the most heavily armed vessels in the IRGCN fleet, with an armament of 28 missiles, four 23mm Gatling guns (two in front of the bridge and two amidships), and one 30mm auto-cannon at the bow. Their formidable missile armaments are designed to threaten ships and aircraft. Twenty-two of the missiles are stored in vertical launch systems (VLS), making the Soleimanis the first vessels in Iranian service with vertical launch capability. Believed to all house surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), they are arranged in two groups of eleven cells (eight small and three large) on the port and starboard sides just behind the bridge. The six large cells are believed to house medium-range SAMs with a range of 92 miles each, while the sixteen small cells are believed to house short-range SAMs. Six box launchers amidships (three on each side) house anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs); likely four long-range ASCMs like the Ghadir or Noor, with ranges of 184 and 74 miles, respectively, and two short-range ASCMs like the Nasr, which has a range of 21 miles. A helicopter deck is located just behind the box launchers and mast. Below it is a hangar reportedly large enough for three IRGCN FIACs; these fast inshore attack boats can be lowered into the water and picked up by an internal crane. Made out of aluminum, Iranian officials have said that the ships have a range of 5,500 nautical miles. They have also said that the catamaran layout provides stability in rough seas and reduces the ships' radar cross-sections, making them harder to detect and track. Three Soleimani-class corvettes, Shahid Soleimani, Shahid Hassan Bagheri, and Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, have been commissioned, while a fourth, Shahid Ra'is-Ali Delvari, is under construction. One month before the Hassan Bagheri and Sayyad Sirazi's commissioning last February, the IRGCN commissioned a new type of catamaran corvette, the Shahid Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. At 157 feet long, 39 feet wide, and displacing around 300 tons, it is smaller than the Shahid Soleimani-class and vastly different in appearance; it has no internal hangar capable of holding FAICs, no VLS cells, and the landing deck behind the bridge appears to be too small for helicopters, likely meaning it is intended for drones. Its armament consists of 14 missiles; six ASCMs stored in box launchers at the stern and eight more ASCMs in two quad-tubed launchers on the port and starboard sides. It is also equipped with four 23mm Gatling guns and one 30mm auto-cannon. Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of the IRGCN, described the Shahid Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis as an "invisible boat" because of its catamaran design, and said it had a range of 2,300 miles.
Converted container ships
Though the newest, the catamaran corvettes are not the first sea-faring vessels the IRGCN has operated. The service has unofficially operated the cargo ships MV Saviz and the MV Behshad which, although officially registered as civilian vessels, are used as forward base and command ships to coordinate support for Houthi rebels in Yemen and to gather intelligence. The IRGC smuggles weapons to the Houthis and train them on their use. In 2020, the IRGCN commissioned its first official sea-going vessel, the Shahid Roudaki. A converted roll-on/roll-off ship, the Shahid Roudaki is capable of carrying FAICs, drones, and military vehicles, and has space for a helicopter on its deck. It is armed with four ASCM box launchers and is believed to play an intelligence-gathering and support role. Roudaki was briefly the largest ship in the IRGCN fleet until March 2023, when the Guard commissioned the Shahid Mahdavi, a converted container ship formerly known as Sarvin. At 787 feet long and 105 feet wide, Mahdavi's role is that of an expeditionary sea base and support/mothership. Equipped with a phased array radar and capable of carrying two helicopters, drones, loitering munitions like the Shahed-136, and FAICs, Mahdavi can also be used as a base from which IRGCN special forces can be inserted, and act as an intelligence-gathering vessel. It is often compared to the US Navy's Lewis B. Puller-class expeditionary mobile bases, the lead ship of which has spent ample time in the Persian Gulf in view of Iranian forces. Iran's navy has a similar vessel, the IRINS Makran, a forward base ship converted from an oil tanker. Commissioned in 2021, it has conducted multiple long-range voyages, including one that saw it circumnavigate the globe. Mahdavi made international headlines in February when it launched two ballistic missiles from shipping containers placed on its deck as part of the Great Prophet 18 military exercise. Fired from the Gulf of Oman, the missiles were reported to have successfully hit mock targets in a desert in central Iran, demonstrating an at-sea launch capability for Iran's ballistic missiles. The ship again made headlines in May when it sailed into the Southern Hemisphere, proving definitively that the IRGCN's reach now extends to the high seas. Mahdavi will eventually be joined by another converted container ship, the Shahid Bagheri. Formerly known as the Perarin, the vessel has been undergoing conversion into a drone carrier for the IRGCN since 2021. Measuring 787 feet long, the ship's width has been increased slightly with the addition of a cantilever deck on its port side. In 2023, a ski-jump ramp was fitted to the bow at an angle toward the starboard side in line with the cantilever deck, suggesting that wheeled drones will take off and land by avoiding the ship's towering superstructure that houses the bridge. The makeup of Bagheri's future unmanned air wing remains a matter of speculation, and could include Shahed 171 and 191s (which are reverse-engineered Iranian copies of a captured American RQ-170 Sentinel), or Mohajer-6 and Shahed 129 drones, all of which can reportedly be used as reconnaissance and strike platforms. The Bagheri's flight deck measures about 590 feet. The main recovery method for the drones will likely be an arrestor net or cable system of some type, though drones with short takeoff and landing ability may be able to conventionally land in calm seas. Like the Mahdavi, Bagheri could also be used as a launch platform for loitering munitions like one-way attack drones. In addition, Rear Adm. Tangsiri has said that Bagheri will be able to store 30 FAICs below its deck. The IRGCN's new warships come with a mandate to expand well beyond the speedboat and fast attack operations that have characterized much of its operations in the Persian Gulf. The IRGCN's new warships come with a mandate to expand well beyond the speedboat-based operations that have characterized much of its operations in the Persian Gulf.Morteza Nikoubazl/Getty Images
An expanded mission
Altogether, the ships represent radical upgrades for the IRGCN — upgrades that the force has desperately wanted. Though its asymmetric tactics and assets have successfully shot down an American drone, damaged and seized merchant ships, and taken American and British naval personnel prisoners, the last major combat engagement the IRGCN fought was a humiliating defeat for Iran, due in large part to hostile missile-equipped surface combatants and airpower. Now sailing with large surface combatants armed with anti-air and anti-ship missiles, as well as new FIACs with better anti-ship and anti-air capabilities, the IRGCN poses a greater threat than it did in the 1980s. "They know they are going on missions that require defense against aerial threats as well as surface threats, so they have to be prepared to defend against those threats by themselves," Farzin Nadimi, a senior defense fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told Insider. But the IRGCN's new ships are not just intended for protecting the Persian Gulf — they are also for helping the IRGCN in its new mission: Projecting its power into the high seas. Previously a mission reserved for Iran's national navy, this expansion of duty was ordered by Ayatollah Khamenei himself in 2020. Though no direct reason has been given for the change, Iranian officials often talk about how the ships will better secure Iran's maritime interests. "In general, they have portrayed their new mission as protecting the safety and security of Iran's vital maritime routes," Nadimi said. But it's more likely that the IRGCN needs high-seas capability to better support the IRGC's goal of furthering Iran's strategic interests. Iran is a rival to Israel and Saudi Arabia and arms groups across the region like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.
While Iran's navy is involved in anti-piracy missions and international voyages to show its flag, it is the IRGC that is responsible for supporting Iran's proxy groups abroad. The Guard is also the frontline force for Iran's efforts in Syria. In the event that its allies need supplies, the new catamaran corvettes "would be able to escort Iranian ships, tankers, or cargo ships that carry important cargoes," Nadimi said. The Mahdavi and Bagheri, converted container ships themselves, could even carry the cargo and deliver it directly. And while the MV Saviz and MV Behshad have likely been unofficially aiding the Houthis, the fact that they are not officially Iranian military vessels exposes them to the possibility of being attacked in gray zone operations, as happened to Saviz in 2021, when a suspected Israeli limpet mine attack crippled it, causing it to be towed back to Iran. The IRGCN's new ships, by contrast, are official vessels of the regime. "By law they are sovereign territory of Iran," Nadimi said. "They have the threat of serious escalation behind them if Israel directly attacks them." The ships can also serve Iran's possible tactical goals as well. As a mobile sea-based ballistic missile launch platform with a long range, the Mahdavi poses a particularly potent threat. An IRGCN surface group made up of the Soleimanis, Madhavi, and Bagheri may even be able to pose a threat to US bombers based in Diego Garcia, an island in the middle of the Indian Ocean. If tensions in the region continue to escalate into a direct conflict with Israel, these ships could pose a big enough threat that they could become high-priority targets for Israeli submarines operating in the Red and Arabian seas. With Bagheri finishing construction and a fourth Soleimani-class catamaran being built, the IRGCN's fleet is only expected to get larger as it embraces its new high-seas mission. "Our oceangoing warships can be present in every location across the world, and when we can fire missiles from them, there is accordingly no safe spot for anyone intending to create insecurity for us," Tangsiri said after the successful missile launches from Mahdavi. Benjamin Brimelow is a freelance journalist covering international military and defense issues. He holds a master's degree in Global Affairs with a concentration in international security from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. His work has appeared in Business Insider and the Modern War Institute at West Point.

Iran presidential election: Jalili, Pezeshkian go head-to-head amid voter apathy
Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/July 04, 2024
Since none of the four candidates managed to secure more than 50 percent of the vote in last week’s presidential election first round, Iran will hold a runoff on Friday. This second round will be a contest between reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. As the country prepares for this critical vote, there are several important takeaways from the presidential election so far. The favored candidate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is clearly the hard-liner Jalili, who served as senior director of policy planning in the Office of the Supreme Leader for several years. Jalili’s close association with Khamenei and his hard-line stance align with the ideological preferences of both the supreme leader and the IRGC.
This favoritism is further highlighted by Khamenei’s indirect warning against Pezeshkian, who has advocated for improved relations with Western countries, including the US. Khamenei issued a cautionary statement suggesting that anyone who believes “all ways to progress” come from the US should not be supported. This remark was a clear rebuke of Pezeshkian’s stance and signaled the supreme leader’s preference for a candidate like Jalili, who opposes rapprochement with the West and adheres to a more conservative, isolationist approach.
Pezeshkian has been attempting to capture the essence of past campaigns led by notable reformists such as Mohammed Khatami by adopting similar symbols and messages and focusing on nationalism and patriotic appeal, rather than religious themes.
The record low turnout in the first round reflects a deep-seated disillusionment among the populace
Nevertheless, in spite of Khamenei’s emphatic call for “maximum” voter turnout, last week’s first round saw the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, with only 40 percent of eligible voters participating. This historically low turnout is particularly notable given the extensive efforts made by the government to encourage voter participation and stress its importance. The 40 percent participation rate marks a significant decline from the previous record low, which was set during the last presidential election in 2021. Then, Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May, secured victory on a turnout of 48 percent. Azita, a student at Tehran University, said to me: “Why should I waste my time and vote? What difference is it going to make?”
This low turnout has several meanings. Firstly, it reflects a deep-seated disillusionment among the populace with the Islamic Republic, most likely indicating a lack of confidence in the efficacy and fairness of the electoral process. It also suggests a significant disconnect between the Iranian government and the country’s citizens, as the calls for high participation by the leadership did not resonate with a substantial portion of the electorate.
Furthermore, this low level of voter engagement may also be seen as a form of silent protest — a way for people to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo and the current social, economic and political situation without resorting to more direct forms of dissent.
In addition, it underscores potential issues of political apathy and disenfranchisement, particularly among younger and more urban voters, who may feel that their voices are not being heard or that the outcome of the election will not bring about meaningful change. The low turnout is also having an impact on the perceived legitimacy of the elected officials, as a mandate secured by such a small percentage of the population can be viewed as less representative and less authoritative.
Another important issue is that this election recorded the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic despite the presence of a so-called reformist candidate, Pezeshkian, who was presumably approved by the Guardian Council specifically to boost voter turnout. Historically, reformists and moderates have been able to generate excitement among the populace, drawing people to the ballot boxes with the promise of change and progress.
The electorate’s indifferent response indicates that many Iranians are skeptical about the possibility of meaningful change
Nevertheless, this trend appears to have declined, indicating a significant shift in public sentiment. The fact that not even the inclusion of a reformist candidate could galvanize the electorate suggests that many people have lost hope that any political faction, including the reformists, can bring about meaningful change.
This pervasive sense of disillusionment implies that a substantial portion of the population now views reformists, moderates and hard-liners as essentially indistinguishable from one another. This convergence in perception points to a broader and more profound crisis of confidence in the political system as a whole, with promises of reform and moderation no longer enough to inspire voter participation or belief in the possibility of substantive improvements.
In conclusion, although Pezeshkian appears to have a better chance of winning the presidential election than the hard-liners’ favored candidate, Jalili, there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm and hope among the Iranian populace regarding both candidates and the election as a whole. This apathy suggests a deep-seated disillusionment with the political process and the candidates themselves. Despite Pezeshkian’s potentially stronger position, the electorate’s indifferent response indicates that many Iranians are skeptical about the possibility of meaningful change, regardless of who is elected. The widespread disinterest and lack of optimism reflect broader concerns about the efficacy of the political system and the ability of any candidate to address the country’s pressing issues. Consequently, this election cycle is marked by a pervasive sense of resignation, as voters seemingly feel that neither Pezeshkian nor Jalili — and even the election itself — hold the promise of significant progress or improvement in their lives.
*Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh

The Biden-Trump Rematch: Who Might Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Salam Zaatari/This Is Beirut/July 04/2024
The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a high-stakes rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. As the campaigns intensify, the political landscape is fraught with challenges and uncertainties that could significantly influence the outcome. The recent presidential debate and mounting pressure on the Democratic Party have further complicated the dynamics of the race, raising questions about President Biden’s fitness to serve and his mental acuity.
The last presidential debate was a critical moment for both candidates. President Biden aimed to defend his administration’s record while addressing concerns about his age and mental fitness. Former President Trump, on the other hand, sought to leverage these concerns to position himself as a viable alternative. The debate highlighted the stark contrasts between the two candidates’ policies and personalities.
Biden focused on his achievements, such as the economic recovery post-COVID-19, the infrastructure bill, and efforts to combat climate change. However, his performance was scrutinized for signs of cognitive decline, with some observers pointing to moments of hesitation and lack of clarity. These observations have fueled ongoing debates about his ability to effectively lead for another term.
Trump capitalized on these concerns, portraying himself as the energetic and decisive leader needed to steer the country forward. He emphasized his prior administration’s economic successes, border policies, and foreign relations while criticizing Biden’s handling of inflation, immigration, and crime. Trump’s strategy aimed to reassure his base and attract undecided voters by presenting a stark contrast to Biden’s perceived vulnerabilities.
Within the Democratic Party, there is growing anxiety about Biden’s candidacy. Some party members and voters are increasingly vocal about their concerns regarding his age and mental health. At 81, Biden would be the oldest president to serve a second term, and this fact has not escaped the electorate’s attention. Polls indicate that a significant portion of Democratic voters are uneasy about his ability to endure the rigors of another four years in office.
These concerns have led to whispers of a potential primary challenge or a push for Biden to step aside in favor of a younger, more dynamic candidate. Figures like Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, and California Governor Gavin Newsom are frequently mentioned as possible alternatives. However, such a move carries risks, potentially fracturing the party and undermining its chances in the general election.
Voter sentiment is a critical factor in the upcoming election. The issue of Biden’s fitness to serve is not confined to partisan lines; it resonates with a broader swath of the electorate. Many voters, including some who supported Biden in 2020, are now expressing doubts about his ability to handle the demands of the presidency. These concerns are often amplified by media coverage and political rhetoric, creating a challenging environment for the Biden campaign.
Republicans are capitalizing on this narrative, with Trump and his allies frequently questioning Biden’s cognitive abilities. This strategy aims to sway swing voters and independents who might be on the fence. The portrayal of Biden as a weak and declining leader is central to the Republican messaging, which seeks to contrast Trump’s vigor and assertiveness with Biden’s perceived frailty.
For Trump, the path to victory hinges on consolidating his base, winning over undecided voters and exploiting Biden’s vulnerabilities. Trump’s base remains steadfastly loyal, driven by a combination of ideological alignment, charismatic appeal, and grievances against the political establishment. To expand his support, Trump must address the concerns of moderate Republicans and independents who may have reservations about his past conduct and polarizing rhetoric.
Trump’s campaign is likely to focus on key battleground states that were pivotal in the 2020 election. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will once again play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Mobilizing voters in these regions and addressing local issues will be essential for Trump to secure a win.External factors such as the state of the economy, global events, and unforeseen crises will also influence the election. Economic conditions can sway voter perceptions and priorities. If the economy remains strong, Biden could argue that his policies are working, bolstering his case for re-election. Conversely, economic downturns or crises could amplify criticisms of his administration and benefit Trump’s campaign. Global events, such as conflicts, trade disputes, or international crises, can also shift the narrative. Trump’s foreign policy record and Biden’s handling of current international challenges will be scrutinized by voters seeking stability and strong leadership on the global stage. As the 2024 election approaches, the contest between President Biden and former President Trump is shaping up to be a defining moment in American politics. The recent presidential debate, coupled with mounting pressure on the Democratic Party and concerns about Biden’s fitness to serve, has created a complex and volatile political landscape. Voter sentiment, external factors, and the strategic maneuvers of both campaigns will ultimately determine who will emerge victorious in this high-stakes rematch. Regardless of the outcome, the election will have profound implications for the future direction of the United States.

Biden’s ‘peace deal’: confusion or deception?
James J. Zogby/The Arab Weekly/July 04/2024
After eight months of the Biden administration’s frustrating moves toward Israel’s war on Gaza, in recent weeks they unveiled the most
confounding move of all.
On May 31, President Biden announced a three-stage “peace deal” that he said would lead to an end to the conflict. The plan, he said, had already been approved by Israel and the burden was now on Hamas to accept its terms. The White House publicised the president’s proposal, issuing the exact language of the plans outline:
PHASE I
A complete ceasefire
Withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza
Release of some hostages and some remains of hostages
Palestinian civilians can return to their homes in Gaza
A surge in humanitarian aid
PHASE 2
A permanent end to hostilities
Exchange for the release of remaining living hostages
Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza
PHASE 3
Major reconstruction plan for Gaza
Final remains of hostages are returned to their families
Shortly thereafter, Binyamin Netanyahu released a statement, essentially rejecting Biden’s proposal as different from the “actual” plan to which he had agreed. A June 1 statement issued by the prime minister’s office read:
“Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Under the proposal, Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.”
Asked to clarify the discrepancy between Biden and Netanyahu’s statements, the White House and State Department spokesmen appeared to accept Netanyahu’s terms. The president’s National Security Advisor called Biden’s proposal the “Israeli ceasefire and hostage deal” and “an Israeli proposal” that “the Israeli government has reconfirmed repeatedly … and now it’s up to Hamas to accept it, and the whole world should call on Hamas to accept it.” The State Department spokesman said that if Hamas were truly committed to saving Palestinian lives not their own position, then they should accept the “deal.”
To further confuse matters, on June 10, the United States secured passage of a UN Security Council resolution which referred to the May 31 ceasefire proposal as one “which Israel accepted” and “calls upon Hamas to also accept it and urges both parties to implement its terms without delay and without conditions.” The resolution then elaborates the three phases of the ceasefire proposal in similar terms to Biden’s May 31 announcement.
Israel is not a Security Council member and could not vote, but nevertheless its ambassador stated that Israel rejected this resolution, saying it ran counter to Israel’s goals. Netanyahu continued to publicly insist on Israel’s goal of “total victory” in Gaza. Adding confusion, the US leaked what they said was Israel’s detailed response to the proposals put forward by US and Arab mediators. It differed principally in that it only offered a limited withdrawal in phase one and that a complete withdrawal of its forces would only occur in phase two subject to negotiations, none of which was in either the Biden plan nor the UN resolution. For its part, Hamas largely accepted the announced “Biden plan” and the UN Resolution with some caveats (for example, that the ceasefire be “permanent” and complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza).
While the gaps might have been the subject of further negotiations, it was confounding to hear US Secretary of State Blinken say “Israel accepted the proposal as it was.” Adding “Hamas could have answered with a single word: ‘Yes.’”
Serious questions that require answers remain: What exactly was the “deal”, was it what the White House announced or what Netanyahu called the “actual” proposal? If Israel’s disagreements with the plan were known to the US, why were Security Council members asked to vote on a resolution that claimed it had Israel’s acceptance? If the goal was to pressure both Israel and Hamas, why not put the deal forward as a US and Arab negotiators’ plan and demand both Israel and Hamas accept it? And, finally, why the confusion? Or was it intentional deception?

The Solution in Libya is to Evacuate it from Militias
Jebril Elabidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 04/2024
If we are to lead Libya towards security and political stability, and allow for an electoral process, we must rid the country of mercenaries and militias. Otherwise, peace and stability will continue to be threatened by a variety of militias of divergent affiliations and loyalties, as well as their mercenaries and foreign forces. Despite a “rhetorical” domestic and international consensus that has not been put into practice, regarding the need for these organizations to leave the country, neither have tangible steps been taken nor clear mechanisms established to expel them. Meanwhile, plans to disband or reintegrate militias into the country’s legitimate forces continue to be stalled. Free Libyans, not the foreign agents nostalgic for the colonial era, demand the liberation of their country from militias, mercenaries, and foreign forces, which are considered a threat to security. These forces have disrupted demographics and threaten geographic splits. They bring the specter of division, not just only political but also geographic.
To avoid a security vacuum, we must expedite efforts to unify the Libyan military as an institution and to rebuild the army. However, a veto preventing the Libyan military from meeting its responsibility to restore the country's stability has persisted. After the army was exterminated and its infrastructure vehicles, bases, and aircraft were destroyed following February 2011, the Libyan state was toppled, not just the country’s political regime. NATO's destructive intervention, which was made under the pretext of protecting civilians following the February 2011 revolution, has led to the collapse of the state and the army.
Moreover, with the arms depots opened, Libya turned into open territory for fugitives, bandits, and terrorists. They looted the weapons stored in these warehouses, which were plundered by militias and mercenaries that included ISIS units and affiliates who took the guise of "revolutionaries." The objective was to dismantle the state, not just the regime, and to spread chaos.
Today, the Libyan army has begun to regroup. The 5+5 Joint Military Commission, which has administered professionally over the past few years, began uniting army units. However, its efforts have been hampered by political disputes. To fairly assess the job that the Joint Military Commission has done since it was established by military officers from both sides of the country, we must start by saying that the sound process through which it came to be has enabled the Commission to become a pillar of the solution to the Libyan crisis. However, as the saying goes, you can’t clap with one hand. The Joint Military Commission was left to fend for itself and resolve the crisis in Libya on its own. Despite its robust professionalism, the work of the Commission has been impeded by political intransigence, foreign interference, militias, and mercenaries, a trinity of destruction, especially in the western areas of the country.
The Joint Military Commission has presented a clear project and plan for clear forces, militias and mercenaries out of Libya within a predetermined time frame, but foreign interference, the foreign powers backing these groups, have prevented the implementation of the action plan it has devised.
The political crisis, with all its domestic and global complexities, as well as the quarrels of politicians, who are responsible for implementing the plans issued by the Joint Military Commission and have conspired with their foreign patrons, undermine the Commission's work. They have thereby diminished its role through their conspiracies aimed at preventing the stabilization of the country, which would be enabled by the unification of the Libyan army. Indeed, some of the major countries that have interfered in Libya’s affairs refuse to allow the army to unite and let the country get back on its feet.
Clearing out the militias, mercenaries, and foreign forces in Libya is what the country needs most of all. This step must precede elections; otherwise, the capacity of the voters and candidates to voice their opinions will be in peril. Despite the talk about proposals for a so-called "simultaneous withdrawal" or conditional withdrawal, which have been pushed in equal measure by all the factions in Libya that include or are linked to mercenaries, these mercenaries
are nonetheless a threat to neighboring countries as well. Some even believe that allowing them to leave with their arms poses another regional risk, especially given the ongoing conflicts in the Sahel and Sahara.
The question of militias and mercenaries is not purely a Libyan affair. Anyone who believes that Libya’s will alone determines whether they depart is mistaken. The mercenaries are present because of foreign intervention and the proxy wars fought in Libya. Therefore, the removal of these groups must involve an understanding among the major powers that had intervened in Libya, only the powers who have summoned this "genie" (mercenaries) can dismiss it.
These foreign interventions and proxy wars, as well as the actions that the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam have taken on the ground, are all part of attempts to take full control of Libya. However, the successive failures of the Muslim Brotherhood in neighboring countries, from Egypt to Tunisia, have left the Brotherhood in Libya exposed. As a result, they will seek to keep the militias and mercenaries in place, as well as continue to solicit foreign intervention to prevent their dramatic and imminent downfall.