Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 16-17/2024
Elias Bejjani/To Israel and the entire world: Lebanon is not Hezbollah, and Hezbollah is not Lebanon....Hezbollah is Actual Lebanon's enemy/Elias Bejjani/February 15/2024
Know your history, hold onto your heritage, root yourself in your land/Edmond El-Chidiac//February 16, 2024
Hezbollah Leads Fighting in South after Lebanese, Palestinian Factions Step Back
Lebanon Border Clashes with Israel Take ‘Concerning Shift’
Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon kill 6 members of Hezbollah, ally
PM Mikati says Israel’s killing of civilians is a ‘crime against humanity’
Nasrallah: Israel will pay price for shedding blood of our women and children
Lebanon Turns to Security Council after Israeli Raids
Israeli FM says world should pressure Hezbollah to withdraw from south
Israeli strikes in south kill 5 fighters from Hezbollah, Amal
In Israel's northern hills, all eyes look to Lebanon
Maariv poll: 71% of Israelis in favor of operation against Lebanon
In Munich, Mikati decries Israel's 'crime against humanity'
Geagea slams Hezbollah for 'exposing Lebanon to death and destruction'
Text of Nasrallah's Speech of today February 16/2024
Sayyed Nasrallah Warns: Bloodshed in Lebanon Villages Will Be Avenged in Blood

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 16-17/2024
Netanyahu rejects international pressure for Palestinian state
Egypt denies allegations of participating in any process involving displacement of Gazans into Sinai
Six wounded in shooting in Israel, medics and police say
Report: Israel-Gaza war propels journalist killings to near-record high
Biden again tells Netanyahu that Rafah civilians must be protected
Palestinian spillover into Sinai would be ‘disaster’
Hamas says Gaza hostages ‘struggling to stay alive’
Russia invites Hamas, other Palestinian factions for talks
India-bound oil tanker hit by missile in Red Sea attack
Top UN court rejects South African request for urgent measures to safeguard Rafah
Macron says recognizing a Palestinian state 'not a taboo' for France
Trudeau warns Israel of 'catastrophic' consequences of pending Rafah offensive
US Sanctions against Houthis over Red Sea Attacks Take Effect

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on February 16-17/2024
Question: “Christian fasting - what does the Bible/say?”/GotQuestions.org?/February 16, 2024
Why the Iran Deal Matters ... It was the first in a series of hugely consequential lies that will shape our country as much as the Middle East/Leee Smith/The Tablet/2023
Leadership void in US fuels the carnage in Gaza/Ray Hanania/Arab News/February 16, 2024
Can Turkiye and Egypt read the regional zeitgeist this time?/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/February 16, 2024
Trump’s rhetoric on defense spending is not all hot air/Luke Coffey/Arab News/February 16, 2024
Western Farmers: Fork in the Road/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 16/2024
Iraq The Day After The United States’ Withdrawal/Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 16/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 16-17/2024
To Israel and the entire world: Lebanon is not Hezbollah, and Hezbollah is not Lebanon.
Elias Bejjani/Text- Arabic Video/To Israel and the entire world: Lebanon is not Hezbollah, and Hezbollah is not Lebanon....Hezbollah is Actual Lebanon's enemy
Elias Bejjani/February 15/2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=426EFafodCo&t=98s
Elias Bejjani/To Israel and the entire world: Lebanon is not Hezbollah, and Hezbollah is not Lebanon....Hezbollah is Actual Lebanon's enemy
Elias Bejjani/February 15/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/127075/127075/
If Israel genuinely aims to address the significant threats posed by the terrorist Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, it should direct its efforts towards, Hezbollah's operatives and leaders, along with their masters, the Iranian Mullahs, rather than implicating Lebanon as a whole.
It is a common knowledge, that the international community, including Israeli leadership, are all fully cognizant that Hezbollah does not represent Lebanon, or the majority of its peace loving people. Therefore, Lebanon and its citizens should not bear any responsibility what so ever for the actions of this Iranian terrorist-jihadist armed organization.
Furthermore, the current Lebanese Mikati government, is completely aligned with Hezbollah, fails to serve Lebanon's interests or to represent its people. Instead, it operates as a mere puppet entity controlled by Hezbollah and its Iranian masters.
Meanwhile, All heinous crimes committed in southern Lebanon in particular, or elsewhere, are the result of actions by Hezbollah, which is non-Lebanese, but an Iranian-backed militia waging Iran's wars in Lebanon and beyond.
By God's will, the day of reckoning for Hezbollah's leaders and operatives will inevitably arrive, regardless of their current immorality or indulgence in hallucinations, day dreaming, delusions and false triumphs.
Based on all the above facts, Israel, as a significant regional power, should acknowledge the Hezbollah's Jihadist, terrorist , Iranian mere affiliations, and adjust its military and political strategies accordingly, refraining from threats against Lebanon and its people.
In conclusion, Israel ought to address its issues with Iran and its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, which occupies and hijacks Lebanon, controls its government and confiscates its decision making process...and not Lebanon or the Lebanese peace life loving people.

Know your history, hold onto your heritage, root yourself in your land.
Edmond El-Chidiac//February 16, 2024
Know your history, hold onto your heritage, root yourself in your land. Do not succumb to oppression, force, intimidation, and terrorism.
"A people not rooted is incapacitated, not only in sustaining itself but even in surviving. The connection between continuity and the will to continue is a fundamental condition for permanence.
Peoples living their heritage, rooted in their homeland, conscious of their messages, always triumph in the battle for survival. Decay dares not approach their walls because they resist with an endless spirit, not subjected to oppression, force, intimidation, or terrorism, regardless of their weak capabilities and limited defense elements. Their sense of the necessity to endure fuels resistance with boundless energy."
Professor Fadel Saied Aql
Lebanon's identity is not a fleeting flavor in some civilization; it is a standing civilization with its own self-sustaining elements that have endured for thousands of years. It is Lebanese, diverse, unaltered by anything other than itself. It is not a transient flavor in any Arab, Persian, Phoenician, Syrian, Islamic, or Christian civilization. It is a distinctive, pluralistic Lebanese identity that rises above all other identities like a drop of oil surrounded by water, always floating because it is different and distinguished by its diversity, openness, freedom, and civilization.
This idea was eloquently expressed by the late President Sheikh Bachir Gemayel:
"The Lebanese cling to their distinctive existence in this geographical environment, like a drop of oil that maintains its size, color, shape, entity, and clarity even when mixed with any other body, regardless of its size, type, and the enlargement of other bodies. History is also full of examples of peoples who rejected occupation, resisted it, and prevented it from being more than the occupation of land and spaces without extending to the mind, heart, and soul."
Sheikh Bachir Gemayel

Hezbollah Leads Fighting in South after Lebanese, Palestinian Factions Step Back
Beirut: Paula Astih/Asharq Al Awsat/16 February 2024
Attacks by Lebanese and Palestinian factions in southern Lebanon against Israel have decreased in recent weeks compared to how active they were in wake of Hamas’ October 7 assault. The factions had been using the attacks to deliver messages to Israel and the international community.
The factions, which had initially included the al-Qassam Brigades and Saraya al-Quds, had taken part in “symbolic combat” against Israel in wake of Hamas’ attack. They launched rockets and limited incursions into northern Israel. They were later joined by other Lebanese groups, such as the al-Fajr Forces that is affiliated with the al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, the Baath and the “Arab Current” parties. Members of the Lebanese Amal Movement had also been deployed along the southern border, without officially declaring it was carrying out operations. The movement, headed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, has so far mourned eight members killed in Israeli strikes. Hezbollah has recently sought to highlight Amal’s role in the South to underscore “Shiite unity”, as stated by party MP Mohammed Raad. Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs Dr. Sami Nader explained that Hezbollah initially allowed attacks by factions other than itself to provide cover for the Palestinians and underline that it was not involved in Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7. Hezbollah, however, will not relinquish control over the South, he stressed. “Despite aligning with Hamas strategically, Hezbollah won't allow it or any other group to establish a foothold in the south,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Nader also pointed out that Hezbollah’s decision to halt the other factions’ “symbolic operations” against Israel was driven by its commitment to a “certain ceiling” related to the messages exchanged between Iran and the United States and to prevent the spillover of the war on Gaza. Hezbollah also wants to prevent Israel from using the presence of al-Qassam Brigades in the South as justification for expanding its operations. Analyst Kassem Kassir told Asharq Al-Awsat that other groups’ involvement in military operations in the South depends on their capabilities and resources. Professor of political science at the American University of Beirut Hilal Khashan highlighted the evolution of the resistance against Israel in Lebanon. It was initially called “national resistance” but later came to be monopolized by Hezbollah. Khashan told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah allowed other factions to carry out limited military operations against Israel to “deliver certain messages at the time.”“But Hezbollah doesn’t want an escalation and has since halted the other operations that were being launched from the South,” he added.
It continues to sanction some Amal activities to project the image that Shiites remain united in times of crisis.

Lebanon Border Clashes with Israel Take ‘Concerning Shift’
Reuters/16 February 2024
20Israel’s killing of ten Lebanese civilians and assassination of a leading Hezbollah military commander in al-Nabatieh earlier this week marked an alarming turn in the battles that have been raging between the party and Israel since October 8. Andrea Tenenti, spokesman for UNIFIL, the UN's peacekeeping force in Lebanon, said it had noted a "concerning shift in the exchanges of fire, including targeting of areas far from the Blue Line" - the current demarcation between the countries. Seven of the civilians were killed in Nabatieh late on Wednesday when a rare Israeli strike on the southern Lebanese city hit a multi-storey building, sources in Lebanon said. The dead were from the same extended family and included three children. It followed an earlier attack on the village of al-Sawana at the border that killed a woman and two children who were buried on Thursday. Hezbollah said on Thursday it fired dozens of rockets at a northern Israeli town in a "preliminary response" to the killing of the 10 civilians, the deadliest day for Lebanese civilians in four months of cross-border hostilities. The United Nations urged a halt to what it called a "dangerous escalation" of the conflict, which has played out in parallel to the Gaza war and fueled concerns of a wider confrontation between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel. The Israeli military said it had killed a commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan unit, his commander and another operative in a "precise airstrike" in Nabatieh on Wednesday, without mentioning the civilian deaths.
Hezbollah said three of its fighters had been killed on Wednesday and later confirmed that among them was Ali al-Debs, a commander in the Radwan unit. The Israeli army said Debs had helped set up a bomb on the side of road in northern Israel in March and had taken part of the fighting that has been raging since October. Last week, he survived an Israeli drone strike on his vehicle on the main road in Nabatieh. Locals said Debs was a "military official" in Hezbollah and was in charge of leading fighters in specific military zones. Units under his command have been taking part in the military operations in the South since October. Israeli government spokesperson Avi Hyman said Israel's "message to Hezbollah has been and always will be: 'Don't try us'. As Defense Minister Gallant said at the beginning of the war, we will copy and paste what we've done in Gaza to Hamas, in Lebanon," he said. Both sides have said they do not seek all-out war. Israel said Wednesday it was responding to rocket fire from Lebanon that killed one of its soldiers and wounded eight others in Safed, about 15 km (10 miles), from the border. Hezbollah did not declare responsibility for that attack.
Israeli threat
"Hezbollah has gone up by half-a-click, we have gone up by one step - but that is one step out of 10," said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, briefing authorities conducting a war-preparedness drill on the Lebanese and Syrian fronts. He said Israel could strike deeper into Lebanon, reaching Beirut "or anywhere else." "Our jets that are flying over Beirut are equipped with heavy bombs that can strike distant targets," he warned. He added, however, that the military did not seek war but wanted Israeli citizens displaced from the north to return home "under a process of accords" or, if there is no other choice, through "action". Israel said it had hit dozens of Hezbollah targets across the south on Thursday. Sirens sounded in northern Israel on Thursday and Israeli medics and police said several rockets struck Kiryat Shmona in Israel, causing damage. There was no immediate word of casualties. Hezbollah said on Thursday it had struck Kiryat Shmona with dozens of rockets in a preliminary response to the killings in Nabatieh and Sawana. It also announced five of its fighters had been killed in Thursday's strikes. Strikes on dense urban areas far from the border, like those on Nabatieh on Wednesday, are considered rare. Hezbollah has been waging near daily attacks on Israeli targets at the border since its Palestinian ally Hamas stormed Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting some 250, according to Israeli tallies. Hezbollah has said its campaign will stop only when Israel halts its offensive on the Gaza Strip, where more than 28,000 people have been killed according to health authorities in Hamas-run Gaza. The violence has killed more than 200 people in Lebanon, including more than 170 Hezbollah fighters, as well as around a dozen Israeli troops and five Israeli civilians, as well as uprooting tens of thousands on both sides.
‘Concerning shift’
"Over the past few days, we have seen a concerning shift in the exchanges of fire, including targeting of areas far from the Blue Line," said UNIFIL Spokesperson Tenenti in a statement carried by Lebanon’s National News Agency on Thursday. "This intensification of the conflict has already claimed too many lives, including, tragically, those of children," he noted. "It has caused significant damage to houses and public infrastructure, and has jeopardized livelihoods of thousands of civilians," Tenenti said, stressing that "attacks targeting civilians are violations of international law and constitute war crimes. The devastation, loss of life, and injuries witnessed are deeply concerning." "We urge all parties involved to halt hostilities immediately to prevent further escalation," he demanded, emphasizing that "diplomatic efforts must be intensified to restore stability and safeguard the safety of civilians residing near the Blue Line." "UNIFIL continues to be fully engaged with the parties to decrease tensions. Peacekeepers remain operational on the ground despite the challenges they face," Tenenti reiterated.

Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon kill 6 members of Hezbollah, ally
PM Mikati says Israel’s killing of civilians is a ‘crime against humanity’
Nasrallah: Israel will pay price for shedding blood of our women and children
NAJIA HOUSSARI/February 16, 2024
BEIRUT: Six Hezbollah and Amal Movement members were killed in an Israeli shelling early Friday morning in southern Lebanon. Israeli warplanes raided the towns of Qantara, Deir Seryan and the vicinity of Wadi Saluki. The raid on a house in Qantara killed three Amal Movement members: Ali Hassan Issa from the town of Jibchit, Mohammed Hussein Said from the town of Qsaybeh and Qassem Nizar Berro from the town of Charqiyeh. Meanwhile, Hezbollah mourned two of its members: Mustafa Khodr Qassir from the town of Deir Qanoun En Nahr and Mohammed Ali Darwiche from the town of Srebbine in southern Lebanon. The Israeli army acknowledged through its spokesman that on Thursday night, “we attacked a military building and infrastructure belonging to the Hezbollah organization in the village of Qantara.”Israeli media reported that “the internal front in the north has decided to close roads on the northern border to traffic following the Israeli army’s assessment of the situation, and in anticipation of a response by Hezbollah.” Hezbollah targeted the Kiryat Shmona barracks at midnight on Thursday with Falaq-1 missiles in response to the massacre committed by the Israeli army in the cities of Nabatiyeh and Al-Sowanah two days ago.The Civil Defense announced that after continuing search-and-rescue operations and comprehensive field surveys at the site of the building partially destroyed by the Israeli drone in Nabatiyeh on Wednesday evening, they retrieved a total of 11 civilian bodies, transported two wounded to Nabatiyeh Governmental Hospital, and extinguished a fire that broke out inside the targeted building. While families held funeral processions in the southern villages, Israeli raids continued on Aita Al-Shaab, Beit Lif and Bint Jbeil. Hostile operations continued for the second consecutive day within the rules of engagement adopted since Hezbollah opened the southern front “to support the Gaza Strip,” meaning south of the Litani River.
This comes after both parties violated these rules two days ago, with the Israeli side targeting Lebanese civilians in the area north of the Litani River, and Hezbollah targeting Safed with its operations.
Commenting on the Nabatiyeh attack, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said: “The enemy went too far in killing civilians. Its goal is to put pressure on the resistance to stop, because all pressure since Oct. 7 was aimed at stopping the southern front. The answer to the massacre must be to continue and escalate the action.”He added: “Targeting the Kiryat Shmona settlement with dozens of Katyusha rockets and a number of Al-Falaq missiles is an initial response. “The Israeli enemy will pay the price for shedding the blood of our women and children in Nabatiyeh and Al-Sowanah.” In response to the Israeli defense minister’s threat to the capital, Beirut, Nasrallah said: “It seems that he has forgotten that the resistance possesses a tremendous and accurate missile capability that allows its hand to extend from Kiryat Shmona to Eilat.” A Lebanese security source said: “The Israeli Army is focusing its hostile operations on cutting off Hezbollah’s supply routes with fire and blocking off the roads connecting the border villages to each other.”
The source noted: “Completely uninhabited areas are witnessing unprecedented destruction of homes and infrastructure. The Israeli army deals with anything moving in the area as a target.”Israeli reconnaissance planes continue to fly over southern Lebanon, reaching the course of the Litani River.
In a speech delivered during the opening session of the 60th Munich Security Conference, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati affirmed that “Lebanon will continue to adhere to all UN resolutions.”He said: “Israel should implement these resolutions, stop its hostilities in southern Lebanon and its violation of the Lebanese sovereignty, and withdraw from all occupied Lebanese territory.”
Mikati questioned “the steps taken by the international community to stop this ongoing hostility.”He said: “Only two days ago, a family of seven, including children and women, was targeted in southern Lebanon. Killing and targeting innocent children, women and elderly people are crimes against humanity.”
Mikati emphasized that “periodic wars and conflicts in the Middle East, along with their global repercussions, will not end without a two-state solution and the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian State.”Mikati called on “international actors to support peace-making efforts, help to prevent and resolve conflicts, and protect civilians from harm.”Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib instructed Lebanon’s permanent representative to the UN to file a complaint before the UN Security Council on Friday. This came after “the Israeli raid that targeted a residential building in Nabatiyeh, killing 11, including women and children, and causing extensive damage to the building, in addition to a second raid targeting the house of Lebanese citizen Jalal Mohsen in the Souaneh village, killing his wife and his two children.”
The complaint emphasized that “Israel’s deliberate and direct targeting of civilians in their houses is a violation of the international humanitarian law and a war crime in which all those involved are directly and indirectly subject to international responsibility.”The complaint added: “The attacks also violated Lebanon’s sovereignty and the security of its territory and citizens, and defied all UN resolutions compelling Israel to stop its violations of Lebanese sovereignty and put an end to its occupation of Lebanese territories, including the Resolution 1701.
“What is concerning is that this escalation comes at a time when international efforts and diplomatic moves intensify to diffuse the situation, and while Lebanon reiterates its rejection of the war and provides a road map for sustainable security in the south.
“This prompts us to urge the international community to exert pressure on Israel to curb its ongoing escalating hostilities and stop the Israeli aggression against Lebanon and its people, in order to avoid the expansion of the conflict and a full-scale destructive regional war that will be difficult to contain.”

Lebanon Turns to Security Council after Israeli Raids
Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/16 February 2024
The Lebanese government intends to submit an urgent complaint to the UN Security Council against Israel after 11 Lebanese civilians were killed in Israeli raids within 24 hours. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned “the prolonged Israeli aggression against southern Lebanon and the new massacres it is committing against Lebanese citizens,” pointing to the killing of seven civilians from one family in the southern city of Nabatieh in Israeli attacks on Wednesday. For his part, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called on the United Nations and human rights organizations to take action “to stop the Israeli killing machine.” “The bloodshed in Nabatieh, and prior to that in Houla, Al-Souwaneh, and Adaisseh, is a call to action for international envoys, the United Nations, and human rights organizations, not merely to condemn, but to urgently and immediately act to stop the Israeli killing machine and restrain the leaders of the occupation entity who are pushing the region towards a war with dire consequences,” Berri added. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza, expressed grave concern, saying: “The recent surge in hostilities and the reported airstrikes resulting in increasing civilian casualties are extremely concerning. Among the victims are children, mothers, and grandparents. The loss of innocent life is lamentable.”He continued: “The rules of war are clear: Parties must protect civilians and these rules must be upheld. They are not a target.”In a statement, the Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, denounced the “massacre” in Nabatieh. He called on the international community to “take immediate action to curb Nazi-Zionism and stop the massacres being committed against the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples.”

Israeli FM says world should pressure Hezbollah to withdraw from south
Naharnet/February 16/2024
Israel's foreign minister Israel Katz called on the world Friday to pressure on Hezbollah to withdraw from South Lebanon. "The world must pressure Iran and Hezbollah to withdraw from South Lebanon and implement U.N. resolution 1701," Katz said at a Security Conference in Munich. Katz warned that Israel would be forced to remove Hezbollah from the border if efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to ease the tensions fail. Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had earlier said at the conference that Lebanon remains committed to all U.N. resolutions, stressing that Israel should also abide by them, halt its aggression against the South and withdraw from all occupied Lebanese territories. Mikati asked about the steps that the international community has taken to halt the continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon, as he condemned "the killing and targeting of innocent" civilians, dubbing it "a crime against humanity."

Israeli strikes in south kill 5 fighters from Hezbollah, Amal
Naharnet/February 16/2024
Israeli artillery shelled Friday the outskirts of al-Labbouneh, Rashaya al-Fokhar, al-Fardees and al-Hebbariyeh, while Hezbollah attacked several posts in northern Israel, including the Malkia post. Israeli warplanes had targeted overnight five villages in southern Lebanon including al-Qantara, al-Taybeh, and Blida, killing five fighters from Hezbollah and the allied Amal movement. Hezbollah announced the death of two of its fighters "on the road to Jerusalem" -- the phrase used for fighters killed by Israel. Amal also announced Friday the death of three fighters killed in the strike overnight on a house in al-Qantara village, bringing to 12 the number of Hezbollah and Amal fighters killed since Wednesday.
Since October 8, at least eight Amal fighters have been announced dead. One on November 11 in an Israeli drone strike in the South, two in an Israeli airstrike earlier this month on the southern border town of Blida, two on Sunday and three in al-Qantara overnight. The group also mourned Hussein Berjawi - who had been killed with his daughters, his sister and his grandson in a strike Wednesday on the city of Nabatiyeh - as one of its members. On Thursday, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel, a day after Israeli strikes killed 15 people, including one of its commanders, and 10 civilians including Berjawi and his family in the bloodiest day for Lebanon since October 8. Hezbollah and its arch-foe Israel have been exchanging near-daily fire across the border since the Israel-Hamas war broke out on October 7. The United Nations secretary-general's spokesman called on Wednesday for a halt to dangerous "recent escalation", which also sparked concern from the United States. The cross-border exchanges have killed at least 268 people on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also 40 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army.

In Israel's northern hills, all eyes look to Lebanon
Agence France Presse/February 16/2024
On a clear day, the view south from Safed, high in the mountains of northern Israel, stretches uninterrupted across orange groves and orchards to the Sea of Galilee. But all eyes in the historic city have been trained more recently on the jagged hills just a few kilometers away to the north -- and the border with Lebanon. On Wednesday, an Israeli soldier was killed in a rocket strike in Safed, prompting retaliatory air strikes inside Lebanon that left at least 15 dead, including 10 civilians. It was the worst single-day civilian death toll in Lebanon since cross-border hostilities began in October, stoking fears of a broader conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. On Thursday, Israeli jets roared overhead, unseen in heavy cloud, as Safed's Artists' Colony in the city's old Arab quarter slowly opened for business. Further up the valley, locals nervously glanced at the skies, rumbling with thunder and flashes of lightning. Then an explosion echoed over the hills. Israel's military later said it had hit a "Hezbollah military structure" in southern Lebanon. Wrapped up against the cold in Safed -- also known as Israel's "City of Air" -- about 900 meters above sea level, Arie Buznah said he was used to the flurry in military activity. "Here in Israel... we're not living a full, relaxing, peaceful, human, normal life," the 66-year-old tour guide explained. "You have to be ready. You have to be alert, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year," he told AFP. This week's attack -- and the reprisal -- was a clear sign, said Buznah. "The war is escalating," he said. Nearby, Abbi Shachar nodded in approval. "People have been saying to me for weeks upon weeks that it's about to happen," she said. On Wednesday, she was with the youngest of her two daughters, aged seven and 10, when sirens sounded for the incoming rocket attack, sending them to safety in a shelter. The 47-year-old gallery owner who moved to Safed 30 years ago from Westchester, New York, said she hoped a wider conflict can still be averted. "I just believe in my heart that something will stop it maybe but if not we'll have to deal with it," she added.
No 'choice' -
Safed is about 250 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. Hamas is an ally of Hezbollah, and both are backed by Israel's arch-foe Iran. For Buznah, too, the Hamas attack has a particular resonance. It resulted in the deaths of at least 1,160 people, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures, and around 250 people taken hostage. Nearly 50 years ago, in May 1974, Buznah was a 16-year-old schoolboy on a hiking trip in Maalot, western Galilee, when Palestinian militants took him and dozens of his classmates hostage. Israeli commandos eventually stormed the school where they were being held, killing the hostage-takers but not before more than 20 people, most of them children, were killed. Buznah, his knee grazed by a bullet, escaped through a window. The latest hostage drama has brought memories flooding back for Buznah but also convinced him of the need to settle the conflict once and for all -- both with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. "In the Gaza Strip, I would give it (Israeli military action) three to five months, maybe half a year, six months," he said of the war that has left nearly 29,000 dead, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory. "Then we are going to come to Lebanon... We don't have any other choice." Like Shachar, Buznah remembers 2006, when Israel fought Hezbollah in the north until a United Nations-brokered ceasefire brought an uneasy peace. Lebanon and Hezbollah had not respected U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 that halted the war, and instead moved back into the buffer zone on the border within weeks, he said. The time for negotiating is over, he said. "It's not going to work, simple as that," he added.

Maariv poll: 71% of Israelis in favor of operation against Lebanon
Naharnet/February 16/2024
A poll published by right-wing Israeli newspaper Maariv has showed that 71% of Israelis believe that Israel should launch a large-scale military operation against Lebanon. Furthermore, 12 percent of Israelis think that the current situation on the border between Lebanon and Israel should be contained, while 17 percent of respondents said they had no opinion on the matter, Maariv reported. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging near-daily fire across the border since the Israel-Hamas war broke out on October 7. Wednesday was the bloodiest day in more than four months of cross-border exchanges, with 10 civilians and five Hezbollah members including a commander killed. Hezbollah said it retaliated on Thursday by firing dozens of rockets into the settlement of Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel. The Israeli army said it carried out Wednesday's strikes after rocket fire from Lebanon killed a soldier and wounded seven others at the Israeli army’s northern headquarters in Safad. The cross-border exchanges have killed at least 268 people on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also 40 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use force against Hezbollah to secure its residents' return amid ongoing indirect negotiations over a political solution.

In Munich, Mikati decries Israel's 'crime against humanity'
Naharnet/February 16/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday reiterated that Lebanon “will remain committed to all U.N. resolutions,” stressing that Israel should “implement these resolutions, halt its aggression against the South and violations of Lebanese sovereignty, and withdraw from all occupied Lebanese territories.”
“As Lebanon emphasizes the need for stability in the region and urges all parties to refrain from escalation, we find Israel carrying on with its aggression, which pushed us to ask about the steps that the international community has taken to halt this continued aggression,” Mikati said in a speech at the opening session of the 60th edition of the Munich Security Conference. Referring to the Israeli airstrikes that killed 10 civilians in south Lebanon on Wednesday mostly women and children, Mikati said “the killing and targeting of innocent children, women and elderly people is a crime against humanity.”Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging near-daily fire across the border since the Israel-Hamas war broke out on October 7. Wednesday was the bloodiest day in more than four months of cross-border exchanges, with 10 civilians and five Hezbollah members including a commander killed. The cross-border exchanges have killed at least 268 people on the Lebanese side, most of them Hezbollah fighters but also 40 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, 10 soldiers and six civilians have been killed, according to the Israeli army. The fighting has also displaced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border and Israel has repeatedly warned that it might use force against Hezbollah to secure their return amid ongoing indirect negotiations over a political solution.

Geagea slams Hezbollah for 'exposing Lebanon to death and destruction'
Naharnet/February 16/2024 
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea accused Hezbollah of exposing Lebanon and the Lebanese to destruction and death by launching attacks on northern Israel in support of Gaza. "How did Hezbollah help Palestinians in Gaza," Geagea asked in a meeting Friday with the Russian Ambassador to Beirut, adding that the situation in Gaza can't get any worse. "What are the results of Hezbollah's attacks except exposing Lebanon and its people to destruction and death?" Geagea decried, as he stressed the need to implement U.N. Resolution 1701 "in order to spare Lebanon the risk of a major war on its southern borders." Hezbollah and its arch-foe Israel have been exchanging near-daily fire across the border since the Israel-Hamas war broke out on October 7.

Text of Nasrallah's Speech of today February 16/2024
Sayyed Nasrallah Warns: Bloodshed in Lebanon Villages Will Be Avenged in Blood
Batoul Wehbe/Al-Manar English Website/February 16, 2024
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah warned today that the enemy will pay the price in blood for the civilian deaths in Nabatiyeh and Al-Suwanah, emphasizing that targeting civilians will not go unanswered, citing the resistance’s missile strikes on Kiryat Shmona as a preliminary response.
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah made these statements in a televised speech broadcast live from Beirut, Lebanon, on Friday, marking Hezbollah’s Martyred Leaders Day, which annually falls on February 16. During the ceremony, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated the resilience of the resistance and its commitment to defending Lebanon’s sovereignty and dignity. He criticized the international community for its failure to support Gaza and called out the American administration for its hypocrisy in the Palestinian conflict. Sayyed Nasrallah also highlighted the resistance’s role in exposing Israeli plans to displace Palestinians and establish a purely Jewish state. He called for unity among resistance factions and reaffirmed their goal of supporting Gaza’s victory. The event concluded with Sayyed Nasrallah honoring the martyred leaders, stating that their presence remains influential in guiding the party’s path and objectives.
South Lebanon’s Massacres Won’t Go Unanswered
Sayyed Nasrallah declared that the Israeli regime would ‘pay with blood’ for the recent killing of civilians in the country’s south. His eminence’s speech followed an Israeli strike two days prior that targeted a building in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatiyeh, claiming the lives of seven family members, including a child. Another attack by the Israeli occupation in the village of Al-Suwanah in southern Lebanon resulted in the deaths of a woman and her two children. Condemning these Israeli strikes as ‘deliberate massacres,’ Sayyed Nasrallah stated that Tel Aviv must realize it ‘went too far’ by targeting civilians.
“The recent Israeli massacres against civilians in the south were deliberate. We are deeply entrenched in a real battle, and concerning the fighters, their martyrdom is an integral aspect of this struggle. However, when it concerns civilians, this issue is particularly sensitive and has been present since the inception of the resistance,” Sayyed Nasrallah said. “In February 1992, the resistance formulated a strategy to protect civilians, which was formally established in July 1993,” Sayyed Nasrallah explained, warning: “We absolutely condemn any harm to civilians, and it is imperative that the enemy realizes they have crossed a red line in this regard.” Sayyed Nasrallah asserted that the resistance’s missile strikes on Kiryat Shmona were a preliminary response to Israeli massacres of civilians in southern Lebanon. “Yesterday, we launched dozens of Katyusha rockets and several Falaq rockets at the “Kiryat Shmona” settlement as an initial response.”He vowed that those responsible for the deaths in Nabatiyeh, Al-Suwanah, and other southern villages would face retribution, emphasizing that the price for such bloodshed would be paid in kind, not through infrastructure or military assets. “Both friend and foe will witness that the price for this bloodshed will be exacted in blood, not in structures, vehicles, or surveillance devices.”“Since October 7, there has been immense global pressure to prevent the southern front from opening up to support Gaza. The enemy’s tactic, through targeting civilians, is to coerce the resistance into halting its actions. The response to the massacre must be an escalation of resistance efforts on the front. The enemy should anticipate this response.” It is essential for everyone to understand that in Palestine, they are confronting a people who will not retreat, regardless of the sacrifices or challenges they face, Sayyed Nasrallah said.
His eminence highlighted Hezbollah’s significant missile capabilities, extending from Kiryat Shmona to Eilat, underscoring the resistance’s preparedness to defend Lebanon’s territory and people. “The Lebanese resistance possesses formidable and precise missile capabilities, enabling its reach from Kiryat Shmona to Eilat.”Sayyed Nasrallah also addressed the ongoing conflict in Palestine, stating that the Palestinians are an unwavering people who will not yield, regardless of the sacrifices endured. “Since 1984, there has been ongoing discourse regarding the cost, price, consequences, and sacrifices associated with resistance,” he said. Regarding regional dynamics, Sayyed Nasrallah mentioned Yemen, noting the continued targeting of ships amid American and British aggression. He emphasized the interconnectedness of regional pressure dynamics, particularly in support of Gaza. “The Yemeni brothers have persisted in targeting American and British ships, but the focal point of the main battle remains the events unfolding in Gaza.”
Sayyed Nasrallah dismissed calls for surrender, affirming that resistance remains the only viable option. He warned against distractions from the primary goal of defending Lebanon’s sovereignty and dignity, emphasizing that resistance is not about imposing political options but safeguarding the country’s honor and resources. “In response to the American and Zionist projects in the region, we are presented with two options: resistance or surrender.” He highlighted the dire consequences of surrender, including displacement and loss of sovereignty, contrasting this with the empowerment of Israel had the Palestinian people surrendered years ago. Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that resistance fighters understand the risks, with martyrdom being an integral part of the ongoing battle. “The cost of surrender is steep, perilous, exceedingly high, and critically important. Surrender in Lebanon would entail Israeli political and economic dominance over our nation. Had the Palestinian people surrendered, today Gaza, the West Bank, and even the people in the 1948 territories would all be outside the equation,” Hezbollah’s leader warned.His eminence emphasized the importance of protecting civilians and reiterated the resistance’s commitment to this principle. He denounced the enemy’s strategy of targeting civilians to pressure the resistance, emphasizing that such actions only fuel the resistance’s resolve. Sayyed Nasrallah praised the effectiveness of popular resistance in achieving liberation and breaking the balance of Israeli deterrence. He called for a steadfast commitment to the resistance, emphasizing that its presence and capabilities are essential for deterring the enemy and ensuring a dignified life for all Lebanese.
Resistance Exposes Israeli Plans, Calls Out American Hypocrisy
Sayyed Nasrallah continued his speech by highlighting the pivotal role of resistance in challenging Israeli aggression and exposing its true intentions. Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized the impact of the “flood of Al-Aqsa” operation, which revealed Israeli plans to displace Palestinians and establish a purely Jewish state.
“The resistance in Palestine has pushed the Zionist entity into an existential crisis, with the pinnacle being Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. Today, in Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iran, and throughout the region, we must never lose sight of the truth about the costs of resistance versus the costs of surrender,” he made it clear.“Isn’t it humiliating and a sign of weakness that countries ruling over two billion Muslims are unable to deliver medicine to the people of Gaza?” he wondered. Sayyed Nasrallah criticized the international community’s failure to provide basic necessities to Gaza, questioning the morality of countries ruling over two billion Muslims. He condemned the American administration for its complicity in the suffering of Gaza, noting that if the US halted its weapons shipments to the Zionist entity, the aggression would cease. The Hezbollah leader condemned the media’s portrayal of Hamas as “ISIL,” emphasizing that Hamas has been unjustly accused without evidence. He called out the hypocrisy of world leaders who condemn Hamas while ignoring Israeli atrocities against Palestinian civilians. “Today, one of our responsibilities is to clarify the facts, as there has been a significant Israeli distortion of events since October 7. The Israeli media attempted to portray the resistance and Hamas on October 7 as ‘ISIL’ in a distorted manner,” Hezbollah’s S.G. said, adding: The Israelis failed to present a single slaughtered child or raped girl to the world. Instead, the settlers who were killed were actually victims of Israeli army fire.”He regretted how some parts believed in the Israeli historical falsification regarding October 7, including countries that claim to be friends with the Hamas movement. Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized that the US is the one willing to extend the war in Gaza. “The greatest hypocrisy the world is witnessing today is the American administration’s stance on the events unfolding in Gaza. Israeli funds, weapons, missiles, and artillery shells currently originate from Washington. If the United States halts the air bridge to ‘Israel,’ the aggression against Gaza will cease. America is more adamant about the goal of eliminating Hamas than ‘Israel’. The American administration bears responsibility for every drop of blood shed in the region, while Israeli officials serve as mere instruments of implementation.”Sayyed Nasrallah stressed the need for regional governments to reject the displacement of Palestinians, emphasizing the importance of unity in confronting such challenges. He reiterated the resistance axis’s goal of supporting Gaza’s victory and affirmed that they do not interfere in Palestinian negotiation processes. “The Israeli goal was to displace Palestinians from occupied Palestine, relocating the people of the West Bank to Jordan, those of Gaza to Egypt, and those of the 1980s to Lebanon. However, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood exposed this long-standing Israeli objective of establishing a purely Jewish state extending from the sea to the river. The project of establishing a purely Jewish state not only targets Palestinians but also poses a threat to Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon.” He affirmed the importance of popular resistance: “In memory of our martyred leaders, we reaffirm the efficacy of popular resistance as a viable option.”“No matter how we articulate or elucidate, our words cannot fully capture the legendary resistance and steadfastness of the people in Gaza. This serves as a testament to the effectiveness of popular resistance,” he said. Our objective, he continued, is to impose the highest possible material and human losses on the enemy, compelling them to admit defeat and withdraw. “Our aim is the resilience of the resistance, the endurance of the people of Gaza, and the steadfastness of our supporting fronts, be it through field military support or political and logistical backing.” The Palestinian factions that delegated Hamas are primarily responsible for political negotiations, and we do not interfere in their negotiation process. All military and logistical support is directed towards Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, symbolizing the fronts of the resistance axis.
NO Political Price for Resistance’s Triumph
Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated the party’s commitment to the resistance as a means of defending Lebanon’s sovereignty and dignity, emphasizing that its purpose is not to interfere with Lebanon’s political system or sectarian balance. He also reiterated that the resistance weapon is not aimed at changing Lebanon’s political system or constitution but is solely focused on defending the country’s sovereignty and dignity. “We call for the Lebanese army to be a strong and capable force, but it is America that hinders its strength,” he said. “In a country like Lebanon, we must now more than ever hold onto the resistance, its weapons, and its capabilities. This is what works, what deters and frightens the enemy, and this is the strength of popular resistance,” Sayyed Nasrallah pointed out. He assured that neither Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, nor any other participating faction on the front has discussed the imposition of a president or amendments to the quotas or political system in the current context. “The purpose of the resistance weapon is not to alter the political system, the constitution, or the system of government, nor is it to impose new sectarian quotas in Lebanon.” “The matter of resistance transcends these considerations, as it pertains to the defense of Lebanon, the south, our people, and their dignity.” In the context of Lebanon’s borders, Sayyed Nasrallah declared that they have been demarcated and any negotiations will be based on the principle of being out of our land. “Lebanon’s land borders have been delineated, and any negotiations will be based on the principle of ‘Get out of our Lebanese land,’” he affirmed. Addressing the ceremony, Sayyed Nasrallah began his speech with showing pride on the resistance leaders who have a deep desire to sacrifice themselves in this divine path. “One of the fundamental aspects of this march and resistance is the willingness of its scholars and leaders to become martyrs, often alongside their honorable families.” “The sacrifices made by the resistance movements are not merely emotional or reactionary; rather, they stem from a deep understanding, insight, and knowledge of their goals,” he said.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 16-17/2024
Netanyahu rejects international pressure for Palestinian state
REUTERS/February 16, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israel will not be pressured into accepting a Palestinian state, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday, following a Washington Post report that Israel’s main ally the United States was moving plans to establish a Palestinian state. “Israel categorically rejects international dictates regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians,” said Netanyahu, in a statement published following a call with US President Joe Biden. “Israel will continue to oppose unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.” Netanyahu said statehood would be a “huge reward” in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel, which triggered the latest war in Gaza. He said such an arrangement can only be reached in direct negotiations between the two sides, though no talks have been held since 2014. The Washington Post reported on Thursday that the United States was working with some Arab countries, including Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — with which Israel has long sought to establish diplomatic ties — on a post war plan for the region that would include a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Top Israeli ministers strongly rejected such a development on Thursday, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who lives in a West Bank settlement, saying a Palestinian state would pose “an existential threat” to Israel. The two-state solution, which would create a state for the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza alongside Israel, has been a core Western policy in the region. The Palestinian Foreign Ministry said on Friday Netanyahu was invoking negotiations only to have the process fail again. “The Palestinian state is not a gift or a favor from Netanyahu, but a right imposed by international law and legitimate international resolutions,” it said in a statement. Among the obstacles impeding Palestinian statehood are expanding Israeli settlements in territories Israel occupied in the 1967 Middle East war, which most countries consider violate international law and which sever Palestinian communities from each other. In its Gaza offensive, Israel has killed more than 28,700 Palestinians, according to Palestinian health authorities, laid much of the strip to waste and displaced most of its 2.3 million population. Israel says its goal is to destroy Hamas, whose fighters led the attack on southern Israeli towns in which Israeli authorities say 1,200 people were killed and 253 taken hostage.

Egypt denies allegations of participating in any process involving displacement of Gazans into Sinai
REUTERS/February 16, 2024
GAZA: Egypt categorically denied allegations of participating in any process involving the displacement of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip into the Sinai Peninsula, the country’s State Information Service (SIS) said on Friday. Four sources told Reuters that Egypt, as a precautionary measure, is preparing an area at the Gaza border which could accommodate Palestinians in case an Israeli offensive into Rafah prompts an exodus across the frontier. The news was also reported by other outlets, including the Wall Street Journal. “Egypt’s decisive stance since the beginning of the aggression ... is to completely reject any forced or voluntary displacement of Palestinian brothers from the Gaza Strip to outside it, especially to Egyptian territory,” Diaa Rashwan, the SIS head, said in a statement. He said such scenario would entail “a definite liquidation of the Palestinian cause and a direct threat to Egyptian sovereignty and national security.”
The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, an activist organization, published images on Monday it said showed construction trucks and cranes working in the area and images of concrete barriers along the border. “Egypt has already had a buffer zone and barriers in this area for a long time before the current crisis erupted. These are measures taken by any country in the world to preserve the security of its borders and its sovereignty over its territories,” Rahswan added. Describing any sort of displacement as a “crime advocated by some Israeli parties,” Rashwan said Egypt will take all necessary measures to stop it. Earlier this week, Egypt hosted talks involving the US, Israel and Qatar on a possible Gaza truce. An Egyptian source said the country was optimistic that talks to clinch a ceasefire can avoid the prospect of displacement.

Six wounded in shooting in Israel, medics and police say
REUTERS/February 16, 2024
JERUSALEM: A gunman opened fire at a crowded bus stop in southern Israel on Friday, wounding six people, in what Israeli police said was a “suspected terror attack.”Police said the incident happened in the southern town of Kiryat Malakhi, adding the suspected gunman was “neutralized” by a civilian at the scene. Police spokesman Eli Levy told Army Radio that a suspected shooter fired at people at a bus station at Masmiya junction, wounding several of them. He said the suspect was “neutralized” without elaborating on his condition, and that the police chief was making his way to the scene to determine whether this was a security incident.Levy urged citizens not to approach the area as police searched the scene for the possibility of additional assailants. Israel’s ambulance service said it was treating and transferring to hospitals three people in serious condition and a woman in moderate condition.

Report: Israel-Gaza war propels journalist killings to near-record high
ARAB NEWS/February 16, 2024
LONDON: The Israel-Gaza war has led to a sharp increase in the number of journalists killed in 2023, with the majority of fatalities occurring in the conflict-ridden region, according to a report published by the Committee to Protect Journalists on Thursday. The CPJ documented 99 journalists and media workers killed last year, marking the highest number of deaths recorded by the organization since 2015. Of these, 72 were Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, highlighting the unprecedented toll of the Israel-Gaza war on media personnel. “Journalists in Gaza are bearing witness on the frontlines,” said CPJ CEO Jodie Ginsberg. “The immense loss suffered by Palestinian journalists in this war will have long-term impacts for journalism not just in the Palestinian territories but for the region and beyond. Every journalist killed is a further blow to our understanding of the world.” In December 2023, the CPJ reported that more journalists were killed in the first three months of the Israel-Gaza conflict than in any single country in an entire year. Concerns were raised by various organizations regarding the apparent targeting of media members by the Israeli army, with investigations underway to determine if a dozen journalists killed during the conflict were deliberately targeted. The Israeli army has long faced accusations of deliberately targeting journalists, leading to Israel being added to the CPJ’s list of the “worst jailers of journalists” for the first time in January. While journalist deaths in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon accounted for the majority of casualties, the CPJ highlighted ongoing dangers faced by media workers globally, particularly in the Philippines, Mexico, and Somalia. Non-lethal attacks on journalists also persist, and record numbers of journalists continue to be imprisoned, indicating ongoing challenges to press freedom. “The near-record high number of journalist killings in 2023 clearly indicates that we must work collectively to ensure that journalist killers are brought to justice, that a culture of safety prevails in newsrooms, and that the public’s right to be informed is protected from those whose power is threatened by the scrutiny of reporting,” added Ginsberg.

Biden again tells Netanyahu that Rafah civilians must be protected
AGENCIES/February 16, 2024
US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu by phone on Thursday against launching an operation in Rafah without a plan to keep civilians safe Israel sent troops into a hospital in war-torn Gaza on Thursday. Health ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza called the situation at Nasser hospital “catastrophic,”
Gaza Strip: US President Joe Biden on Thursday again told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he should not proced with military action in Rafah without a credible and executable plan to protect Palestinian civilians, the White House said. The call between the two leaders on Thursday was the second time in less than a week that Biden warned Netanyahu about moving into the southern part of the Gaza Strip without a plan to ensure the safety of some 1 million people sheltering there. They also spoke about ongoing hostage negotiations and Biden pledged to continue to work around the clock to help free the hostages, who have spent 132 days in Hamas captivity, according to the White House read out of the call. Earlier this month, Biden said Israel’s military response in the Gaza Strip had been “over the top“ and expressed grave concern over the rising civilian death toll in the Palestinian enclave.
The war began on Oct. 7 when Iran-backed Hamas sent fighters into Israel, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seizing 253 hostages according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s air and ground offensive has since devastated tiny, crowded Gaza, killing 28,663 people, also mostly civilian, according to health authorities, and forcing nearly all its more than 2 million inhabitants from their homes.
Israel sends troops into 'besieged' Gaza hospital
Israel sent troops into a hospital in war-torn Gaza on Thursday where it said hostages may have been held, as medics warned the key medical facility was operating in “near impossible” conditions. The raid came after days of intense fighting between troops and Hamas militants around the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis — one of the largest medical sites in southern Gaza, and one of the territory’s few hospitals that are still operational. Israel, which has accused Hamas militants of using hospitals for military purposes, said it was carrying out a “precise and limited operation” at the facility with “no obligation” for patients or staff to evacuate. Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said there was “credible intelligence from a number of sources, including released hostages, indicating that Hamas held hostages at the Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis and that there may be bodies of our hostages” there. The health ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza reported that thousands of people who had sought refuge in the complex, including patients, have been made to leave in recent days. It has called the situation at Nasser “catastrophic,” with staff unable to move bodies to the morgue because of the risks involved. Medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) described a “chaotic situation” in the hospital after it was shelled early Thursday, killing and wounding multiple people. “Our medical staff have had to flee the hospital, leaving patients behind,” MSF said, with one employee unaccounted for and another detained by Israeli forces. The World Health Organization has described Nasser Hospital as a critical facility “for all of Gaza,” where only a minority of hospitals are even partly operational.
Netanyahu insist for a “powerful” operation into Rafah
Roughly 130 hostages are still believed to be in Gaza after the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Dozens of the estimated 250 hostages seized during the attack were freed in exchange for Palestinian prisoners during a week-long truce in November. Israel says 30 of those still in Gaza are presumed dead. At least 28,663 people, mostly women and children, have been killed in Israel’s assault on the Palestinian territory, according to the health ministry. Israel launched more deadly strikes on southern Gaza on Thursday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted it would push ahead with a “powerful” operation in the overcrowded city of Rafah for “complete victory.” Hundreds of thousands of people have been driven into Rafah, seeking shelter in a sprawling makeshift encampment near the Egyptian border. The city now hosts more than half of Gaza’s population, with displaced people “crammed” into less than 20 percent of the territory, according to UN humanitarian agency OCHA. “We were displaced from Gaza City to the south,” said Ahlam Abu Assi. “(Then) they told us to go to Rafah, so we went to Rafah. “We can’t keep going and coming,” she added. “There is no safe place for us.” US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu by phone on Thursday against launching an operation in Rafah without a plan to keep civilians safe, the White House said. Britain, meanwhile, joined Australia, Canada and New Zealand in warning Israel not to launch a ground offensive in the city. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told Netanyahu in a telephone call that Britain was “deeply concerned about... the potentially devastating humanitarian impact of a military incursion into Rafah,” his office said.

Palestinian spillover into Sinai would be ‘disaster’
AFP/February 17, 2024
Exodus could be ‘nail in the coffin’
MUNICH, GENEVA: The UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees said on Friday that a spillover of refugees from Gaza’s Rafah into Egypt’s Sinai would be a disaster and that Egyptian authorities had made clear that Palestinians should be assisted in the enclave.
“It would be a disaster for the Palestinians ... a disaster for Egypt and a disaster for the future of peace,” Filippo Grandi said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, an annual gathering in the southern German city.
When asked whether Egyptian authorities had contacted the UNHCR about possible contingency plans he said: “The Egyptians said that people should be assisted inside Gaza and we are working on that.”
An exodus of Gazans into Egypt must be “avoided at all costs,” and could be the “nail in the coffin” of a future peace process, he said.
Like many observers, the UN high commissioner for refugees believes that once Palestinians leave Gaza they will no longer be able to return — as happened in 1948 — something which would ruin the possibility of a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
Filippo Grandi, The UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Nearly 1.5 million displaced Palestinians — more than half of Gaza’s population — are trapped in Rafah, seeking shelter in a sprawling makeshift encampment near the Egyptian border. “The position of Egypt has been very clear. People should not go across the border. I think Egypt has very valid reasons,” Grandi told BBC television from Munich. “It would be catastrophic for Palestinians ... to be displaced again. “It would be catastrophic for Egypt from all points of view, and more important than anything else, a further refugee crisis would be almost the nail in the coffin of a future peace process already.” Like many observers, the UN high commissioner for refugees believes that once Palestinians leave Gaza they will no longer be able to return — as happened in 1948 — something which would ruin the possibility of a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
The war accompanying the creation of Israel in 1948 saw 760,000 Palestinians flee or forced from their homes. Millions of their descendants continue to live as refugees in neighboring countries. “The old 1948 refugee crisis is an unresolved problem; if you add a dimension to that, you can say goodbye to a meaningful peace process,” said Grandi. Pressure has grown on Egypt to open its border to Palestinian civilians, as Israel plans to push ahead with a military operation in Rafah, seeking complete victory over the Hamas militant group.
Grandi said his Geneva-based UNHCR agency was not involved in any preparations that Egypt might be making if people cross the border. But in any case, a Gazan refugee surge into Egypt “needs to be avoided and it can only be avoided if humanitarian aid can enter Gaza in significant quantities — but more important, if hostilities cease,” he said. Grandi said the plight of displaced people in Gaza’s Rafah city was “absolutely dramatic.”“So I hope that the appeals by the entire international community for a ceasefire and access of humanitarian aid and the liberation of hostages are heeded by the parties; by Israel, by Hamas.” Egypt has repeatedly raised the alarm over the possibility that Israel’s devastating Gaza offensive could displace Palestinians into Sinai — something Cairo says would be completely unacceptable — echoing warnings from Arab states such as Jordan.
The US has repeatedly said it would oppose any displacement of Palestinians out of Gaza. A source told Reuters that Egypt was optimistic talks to clinch a ceasefire can avoid any such scenario, but is establishing the area at the border as a temporary and precautionary measure.
Three security sources said Egypt had begun preparing a desert area with some basic facilities which could be used to shelter Palestinians, emphasizing this was a contingency step. The sources preferred anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. Israel has said it will mount an offensive to take out Hamas’s “last bastion” in Rafah, where well over 1 million Palestinians have sought sanctuary from its devastating Gaza offensive. Israel has said its army is drawing up a plan to evacuate civilians from Rafah to other parts of the Gaza Strip. But UN aid chief Martin Griffiths said on Thursday it was an “illusion” to think people in Gaza could evacuate to a safe place and warned of the possibility of Palestinians spilling into Egypt if Israel launches a military operation in Rafah. He called this scenario “a sort of Egyptian nightmare.” The first source said construction of the camp began three or four days ago and it would offer temporary shelter in any scenario of people crossing the frontier “until a resolution is reached.”

Hamas says Gaza hostages ‘struggling to stay alive’
AFP/February 17, 2024
GAZA STRIP, Palestinian Territories: Hamas’s armed wing said on Friday that hostages in Gaza were “struggling to stay alive” as conditions across the war-battered Palestinian territory deteriorate due to relentless Israeli bombardments.
“The wounded and sick enemy prisoners are going through very difficult conditions and are struggling to stay alive,” Abu Obeida, spokesman for Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades said in a televised statement. “This is not surprising because everything that our people are suffering from, be it hunger, thirst and lack of medical help, is also what the enemy prisoners are suffering from.”This week, mediators from the United States, Qatar and Egypt gathered in Cairo to try to broker a deal to halt the fighting and secure the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday he believed a deal was still “possible” but there has been no public announcement of any breakthrough. Abu Obeida said it was Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip that was responsible for the situation. “Time is running out fast,” he said.
During the October 7 attack by Hamas militants on Israel, some 250 hostages were taken to the Gaza Strip, of which roughly 130 are still being held there, according to Israeli officials. Thirty of them are believed to be dead, while more than 100 had been freed during a one-week truce that ended on December 1.
Three hostages were mistakenly killed by Israeli soldiers in December, while some have been rescued in military operations. Several hostages among those still captive in Gaza are suffering from various illnesses and attempts have been made to supply medicines to them. The October 7 attack itself resulted in the deaths of around 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures. In Israel’s relentless military offensive since then in Gaza, at least 28,775 people have been killed, most of them women and children, according to the territory’s health ministry.

Russia invites Hamas, other Palestinian factions for talks
AFP/February 17, 2024
MOSCOW: Russia has invited Hamas and other Palestinian factions including Fatah to Moscow for talks on the Israel-Hamas war and other issues in the Middle East, an official said Friday. Moscow, which for years tried to court good relations with all major players in the region, has grown increasingly critical of Israel and its Western backers amid the ongoing war in Gaza. Russia has invited around a dozen Palestinian groups to Moscow for “inter-Palestinian” talks from February 29, the state-run TASS news agency reported, citing Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. “We invited all Palestinian representatives — all political forces that have their positions in different countries, including Syria, Lebanon and other countries in the region,” said Bogdanov, who is President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for the Middle East. They include Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, alongside representatives of Fatah and the broader Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The war in Gaza was triggered by Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel that resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.At least 28,775 people, mostly women and children, have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory military offensive on Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory. Putin has called for a ceasefire and Moscow has repeatedly criticized Israel’s conduct in the Gaza Strip since the October 7 attack. The public statements, combined with Russia’s partnerships with Iran and Hamas, have soured Russian-Israeli relations since the conflict broke out.

India-bound oil tanker hit by missile in Red Sea attack
REUTERS/February 17, 2024
CAIRO: A Panamanian-flagged tanker carrying crude oil bound for India was struck with a missile in the Red Sea, the US State Department said on Friday. The missile launched from Yemen hit the M/T Pollux on its port side, according to the State Department. Earlier on Friday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency and British maritime security firm Ambrey said a Panama-flagged tanker had reportedly been hit 72 nautical miles (133 km) northwest of the port of Mokha, off Yemen. “The vessel ... reportedly sustained minor damage. The crew was reported safe and unharmed,” Ambrey said. “This is yet another example of the lawless attacks on international shipping, which continue after numerous joint and international statements calling the Houthis to cease,” a State Department spokesperson said. M/T Pollux embarked from Russia’s Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk on Jan. 24 and was due to discharge in Paradip, India, on Feb 28, according to LSEG data. Indian Oil Company has a 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil refinery at Paradip, in eastern Odisha state. The ship is owned by Oceanfront Maritime Co. SA and managed by Sea Trade Marine SA, according to LSEG data. Representatives from those firms did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Another vessel three nautical miles to the northeast of the M/T Pollux was observed altering course to port, away from the tanker, Ambrey said. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have said they will press on with attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with the Palestinians, as long as Israel continues to commit “crimes” against them. “Our operations have a big impact on the enemy which constitute a great success and a real triumph,” Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi said in a televised speech on Thursday. The attacks on ships have disrupted global commerce, stoked fears of inflation and deepened concern the Israel-Hamas war could spread.

Top UN court rejects South African request for urgent measures to safeguard Rafah
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP)/February 16, 2024
The top UN court on Friday rejected a South African request to impose urgent measures to safeguard Rafah in the Gaza Strip, but also stressed that Israel must respect earlier measures imposed late last month at a preliminary stage in a landmark genocide case. The International Court of Justice said in a statement that the “perilous situation” in Rafah “demands immediate and effective implementation of the provisional measures" that it ordered Jan. 26. It said no new order was necessary because the existing measures “are applicable throughout the Gaza Strip, including in Rafah.” The world court added that Israel “remains bound to fully comply with its obligations under the Genocide Convention” and the Jan. 26 ruling which ordered Israel to do all it can to prevent death, destruction and any acts of genocide in Gaza. Citing U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the court noted “the most recent developments in the Gaza Strip, and in Rafah in particular, ‘would exponentially increase what is already a humanitarian nightmare with untold regional consequences.’" Israel has identified Rafah as the last remaining Hamas stronghold in Gaza and vowed to continue its offensive there. An estimated 1.4 million Palestinians, more than half of Gaza’s population, has crammed into the city, most of them displaced people who fled fighting elsewhere in Gaza. Israel has said it will evacuate the civilians before attacking, though international aid officials have said there is nowhere to go due to the vast devastation left behind by the offensive. South Africa announced Tuesday that it had lodged an “ urgent request ” with the International Court of Justice to consider whether Israel’s military operations targeting the southern Gaza city of Rafah breach provisional orders the court handed down last month in a case alleging genocide. South African foreign ministry spokesman Clayson Monyela said in a message on X, formerly Twitter, that the court “has affirmed our view that the perilous situation demands immediate & effective implementation of the provisional measures indicated by the Court in its Order of 26 January 2024 which are applicable throughout the #GazaStrip & has clarified that this includes #Rafah.”The court's statement was issued on the Jewish sabbath, when government offices are closed, and there was no immediate comment from the Israeli Foreign Ministry. On Thursday, Israel urged the world court to reject what it called South Africa’s “highly peculiar and improper” request. Israel strongly denies committing genocide in Gaza and says it does all it can to spare civilians and is only targeting Hamas militants. It says Hamas’ tactic of embedding in civilian areas makes it difficult to avoid civilian casualties. The provisional measures ordered last month came at a preliminary stage of a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of breaching the Genocide Convention. The court also called on Hamas to release the hostages who are still in captivity. Hamas urged the international community to make Israel carry out the court’s orders. South Africa’s legal campaign is rooted in issues central to its identity: Its governing party, the African National Congress, has long compared Israel’s policies in Gaza and the West Bank to its own history under the apartheid regime of white minority rule, which restricted most Blacks to “homelands.” Apartheid ended in 1994.

Macron says recognizing a Palestinian state 'not a taboo' for France
Agence France Presse/February 16, 2024
President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that recognizing a Palestinian state was "not a taboo for France" in his first such comments since the start of the war in Gaza. "The recognition of a Palestinian state is not a taboo for France," he said at a joint press conference in Paris with Jordan's King Abdullah II. His comments come after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a plan for international recognition of such a state, following reports of such an initiative in The Washington Post. The U.S. newspaper reported that U.S. President Joe Biden's administration and a small group of Arab nations were working out a comprehensive plan for long-term peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It included a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state, the report said. Macron also repeated a warning against Israel attacking the city of Rafah, the southernmost point in the besieged and bombarded Palestinian territory of Gaza. "An Israeli offensive in Rafah could only bring about an unprecedented humanitarian disaster and would be a turning point in this conflict," he said. The latest Gaza war began after Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on October 7 that resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people in Israel, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Militants also took about 250 people hostage, around 130 of whom are still in Gaza, according to Israeli figures. Israel says 30 of the remaining captives are presumed dead. Israel's blistering assault on Gaza since has killed at least 28,775 people, mostly women and children, according to the territory's health ministry. Fears of mass displacement have mounted with Netanyahu's insistence that troops must push into Rafah to achieve "complete victory" over Hamas. "I share the fears of Jordan and Egypt of mass forced displacement of the population," Macron added. "It would be a new grave violation of international law and present a major risk of escalation for the region," he said. The Wall Street Journal has reported Egypt is building a walled camp in the Sinai Peninsula to receive Palestinians displaced from the Gaza Strip. The Sinai Foundation for Human Rights, an Egyptian NGO, released a report this week that it said showed construction of the compound to receive Palestinian refugees "in the case of a mass exodus". The United Nations has stressed an exodus of Gazans into Egypt must be "avoided at all costs". Macron on Wednesday told Netanyahu that the Gaza death toll was "intolerable" and Israel's "operations" there "must cease", his office said. He stressed that a ceasefire agreement should be reached "without further delay", adding such a deal should "guarantee the protection of all civilians and the massive inflow of emergency aid". He said peace could only be achieved through the "creation of a Palestinian state".

Trudeau warns Israel of 'catastrophic' consequences of pending Rafah offensive
The Canadian Press/February 16/2024
OTTAWA — An Israeli military offensive into the densely populated area where some 1.5 million Palestinians have taken refuge in the Gaza Strip would be "catastrophic," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said late Wednesday. He said in a joint statement with the prime ministers of Australia and New Zealand that the impact of such an incursion into Rafah would be "devastating" given the already-dire humanitarian situation. "We urge the Israeli government not to go down this path. There is simply nowhere else for civilians to go," the statement said. "There is growing international consensus. Israel must listen to its friends and it must listen to the international community. "The protection of civilians is paramount and a requirement under international humanitarian law. Palestinian civilians cannot be made to pay the price of defeating Hamas." The statement follows similar warnings from the United States, other western allies and the United Nations. U.S. President Joe Biden said earlier this week that Israel must not move ahead with a prospective military operation in Rafah without a "credible" plan to keep civilians safe. The city is located along the border with Egypt, where the only crossing that has allowed limited traffic since the conflict began is heavily controlled. Trudeau's statement marked Canada's strongest language yet on Israel's conduct in the region, more than four months into its war with Hamas. The federal Liberals have faced criticism, including from the government's own caucus, for not putting more pressure on Israel to abide by interim orders the International Court of Justice, the United Nations' highest court, handed down last month. The court made the ruling as it decided to hear a case brought by South Africa alleging that Israel is committing genocide as it targets Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Wednesday evening's statement noted that the court ordered Israel to protect civilians and ensure the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance. South Africa’s government said Tuesday it had lodged an “urgent request” with the UN court to consider whether Israel’s targeting of Rafah was a breach of its provisional orders. Trudeau and his counterparts also said a sustainable ceasefire is necessary and cannot be one-sided, reiterating their condemnation of Hamas for the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the conflict. That day, militants killed 1,200 people in a brutal assault on Israel and took about 250 hostages. Israel retaliated by declaring war on Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian territory has been under almost constant bombardment since and local authorities say more than 28,000 Palestinians have been killed. International efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas suffered a setback on Wednesday as Israel reportedly recalled its negotiating team and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of hobbling the high-stakes negotiations by sticking to “delusional” demands. Netanyahu’s remarks came hours after local media reported that the Israeli leader had ordered an Israeli delegation not to continue talks in Cairo, raising concerns over the fate of the negotiations and sparking criticism from the families of the roughly 130 remaining captives, about a fourth of whom are said to be dead. The relatives of the hostages said Netanyahu’s decision amounted to a “death sentence” for their loved ones. The mediation efforts, steered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar, have been working to bring the warring sides toward an agreement that might secure a truce. The sides have been far apart on their terms for a deal. Netanyahu has vowed to continue the war until “total victory” over Hamas and the return of all the remaining hostages. Hamas has said it will not release all the captives until Israel ends its offensive, withdraws from Gaza and releases a large number of Palestinian prisoners, including top militants.

US Sanctions against Houthis over Red Sea Attacks Take Effect
Asharq Al-Awsat/February 2024.
US "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" sanctions against the Iran-backed Houthi militias for their ties to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea took effect on Friday, the US Department of Treasury said in a statement on its website.
The US government last month said it was returning the Yemen-based militias to the global list of terrorist groups in an effort to stem attacks on international shipping.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 16-17/2024
Question: “Christian fasting - what does the Bible say?”
GotQuestions.org?/February 16, 2024
Answer: Scripture does not command Christians to fast. God does not require or demand it of Christians. At the same time, the Bible presents fasting as something that is good, profitable, and beneficial. The book of Acts records believers fasting before they made important decisions (Acts 13:2; 14:23). Fasting and prayer are often linked together (Luke 2:37; 5:33). Too often, the focus of fasting is on the lack of food. Instead, the purpose of fasting should be to take your eyes off the things of this world to focus completely on God. Fasting is a way to demonstrate to God, and to ourselves, that we are serious about our relationship with Him. Fasting helps us gain a new perspective and a renewed reliance upon God.
Although fasting in Scripture is almost always a fasting from food, there are other ways to fast. Anything given up temporarily in order to focus all our attention on God can be considered a fast (1 Corinthians 7:1-5). Fasting should be limited to a set time, especially when fasting from food. Extended periods of time without eating can be harmful to the body. Fasting is not intended to punish the flesh, but to redirect attention to God. Fasting should not be considered a “dieting method” either. The purpose of a biblical fast is not to lose weight, but rather to gain deeper fellowship with God. Anyone can fast, but some may not be able to fast from food (diabetics, for example). Everyone can temporarily give up something in order to draw closer to God.
By taking our eyes off the things of this world, we can more successfully turn our attention to Christ. Fasting is not a way to get God to do what we want. Fasting changes us, not God. Fasting is not a way to appear more spiritual than others. Fasting is to be done in a spirit of humility and a joyful attitude. Matthew 6:16-18 declares, “When you fast, do not look somber as the hypocrites do, for they disfigure their faces to show men they are fasting. I tell you the truth, they have received their reward in full. But when you fast, put oil on your head and wash your face, so that it will not be obvious to men that you are fasting, but only to your Father, who is unseen; and your Father, who sees what is done in secret, will reward you.”

Why the Iran Deal Matters ... It was the first in a series of hugely consequential lies that will shape our country as much as the Middle East
Leee Smith/The Tablet/2023
How did we get here?
The current state of affairs began when Joe Biden’s former boss Barack Obama legalized a terror state’s nuclear weapons program.
Despite what its publicists claimed, the purpose of the deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was never to stop Iran from getting the bomb. Rather, the tens of billions of dollars that Obama paid the clerical regime, which included planeloads of cash, was to facilitate construction of the nuclear weapons program under the protective umbrella of an international agreement backed by the United States. Even a cursory glance at the agreement’s clauses restricting Iranian nuclear and other activities reveals the truth—they are called “sunset clauses” because they were designed to expire. And once they expired, Iran’s industrial-size nuclear weapons program would be entirely legal under the continuing protection of the United States.
No, no, say JCPOA advocates and defenders—the Iran deal was constructed to prevent Iran from ever getting a bomb. And at the time that Obama proposed his plan, it seemed inconceivable that the president would mislead Americans about something as serious as legalizing the nuclear weapons program of a terror state that has been killing Americans since its inception in 1979. Surely, Obama had some more conventional idea of arms control in mind. His critics must be conspiracy theorists, projecting their own pyromania onto the righteous president, probably because they were racists, or Zionists, or both. The Iranian emigres and Saudi analysts who expressed their shock at the idea of giving Iran the bomb must have their own local axes to grind.
Nearly a decade after the selling of the Iran deal, it’s much easier now for Americans to see that it was the origin point in a series of hugely consequential lies that have shaped our country at home as surely as they have shaped the lives of people in the Middle East. They lied about Obama’s successor being a Russian spy to delegitimize the government and divide the country, in the hope of removing an elected president from office. They lied about an “insurrection” on Jan. 6, 2021, to justify designating one half of the country as domestic terrorists, in order to put their political opponents in jail. They’ve lied about so many things because they’re certain that their communications infrastructure—where intelligence officers direct big tech and censor what was once America’s independent press—will shape the “information space” on their behalf, effectively controlling what we see, hear, and read. They first built their echo chamber to sell the idea that the Iran deal would stop Iran from getting a bomb; now the echo chamber is everywhere—a high-tech version of how the press is run in countries like Egypt, or Iran.
Obama wanted to give Iran the bomb in the context of a larger realignment of U.S. interests with those of the Islamic Republic. If you’ve seen any of the videos on social media of Hamas operatives dragging Jews out of their homes and shooting them, you can see what that means. Obama admired Hamas’ Iranian patron Qassem Soleimani, who ran Iran’s expeditionary unit, the Quds Force, until the Trump administration killed him. Obama told Gulf Arab U.S. allies they should get their own Quds Force, but they didn’t, which is partly why Obama downgraded relations with America’s traditional Arab allies and moved Iran into the top slot. He wanted Iran’s hard men and their terror assets to manage U.S. regional interests, so that the United States could leave the Middle East and “pivot” to Asia—though as it turned out, China and its friends in Washington had their own ideas about American dominance there.
But there was also an important domestic reason to get Iran the bomb, which was to normalize pathology. If you treat a nation-state that embodies Jew-hatred as an ally and arm it with a bomb, you are legitimizing Jew-hatred, which is perhaps the dominant form that psychopathy takes in modern global politics. To believe that Jews secretly rule the world, that the invisible hand of the “elders of Zion” tilts the world like gravity in favor of the Jews, and that mankind’s dignity can only be restored if the Jews are disempowered, or eliminated, is a pathological belief—one that is shared by billions of people around the globe, as well as by a stunning assortment of psychopaths with designs on power.
Obama rejected that characterization, acknowledging that the regime was antisemitic. But antisemitism, as he told a journalist, “doesn’t preclude you from being rational about the need to keep your economy afloat; it doesn’t preclude you from making strategic decisions about how you stay in power.”
That’s just your average high-stakes undergraduate bull session answer, in which the winning move is to rationalize Jew hatred through the backdoor: You can be an antisemite and still be rational. But then Obama went a step further, and suggested that maybe antisemitism could itself be rational. He talked about the Iranians using “antisemitic rhetoric as an organizing tool.”
The latter part of Obama’s answer was incredibly revealing. Of course, antisemites don’t see antisemitism as an “organizing tool”—meaning, as a rational device to achieve a rational end. Antisemitism is many things—a conspiracy theory, a passion—but rationality is not one of its characteristics.
The Iran deal was more than a foreign policy blunder, or a bad deal. It was the device that Obama consciously used to transform America.
The antisemites you come across on social media aren’t trying to win followers or “organize people”; they just hate Jews. They are proud of their beliefs, and eager to tell the whole world. No, the kind of person who sees antisemitism as an “organizing tool” is someone who would use it that way. In other words, Obama’s comment was revealing because he wasn’t speaking about the Iranian regime. He was talking about himself.
It’s hard to look into another’s heart to discern their true feelings about others. But we know that Obama believes antisemitism to be a useful organizing tool, because he said so himself.
The Iran deal was more than a foreign policy blunder, or a bad deal. It was the device that Obama consciously used to transform America. It unleashed the Iranians and their terror assets abroad; at home it sidelined the Jews, pushing them out of the places they had carved out for themselves in American life and relegating them to second-class status in the Democratic Party—where, in order to belong, they would now have to pledge allegiance to the idea of gifting nuclear weapons to a country that pledged to exterminate them.
In turn, the reason that Obama had to push out the Jews is because they are one of the touchstones of American exceptionalism. Like Israel, like the Jews, America is a nation built since its founding on the idea of a covenant with God. Just as Christians have no evidence that Jesus is real or that God acts in history without the historical reality of the Jews, America grounds its unique self-conception in history through Israel. Like the Jews, we are one of a kind, with a unique, God-given destiny.
Obama’s transformation of America was to remake it in his own image, by junking the idea that America is exceptional and dissolving the country’s borders with the rest of the world. America is not unique. It is as sinful as any other nation, he was effectively arguing, and possibly worse. What better way to make that point than by throwing Israel overboard, and replacing it with Iran—a country that preaches God’s retribution against America.
Now that the Israel part of Obama’s dream has been achieved, we should all be prepared for the other shoe to drop. The violence he unleashed in Israel will be coming to these shores now.
*ee Smith is the author of The Permanent Coup: How Enemies Foreign and Domestic Targeted the American President (2020).

Leadership void in US fuels the carnage in Gaza
Ray Hanania/Arab News/February 16, 2024
US President Joe Biden’s administration has been a failure across the board when it comes to foreign policy, and that failure has helped fuel the intensity of Israel’s violence in the Gaza Strip. No one would fault Israel’s government, even one as extremist and right wing as that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for responding forcefully to the Oct. 7 attacks by targeting Hamas militants and the organization’s leadership. But Israel’s blanket bombing of Gaza with no consideration for the safety of civilians has gone far beyond any legitimate military response to an international crime. This issue of proportionality is important. Hamas militants killed about 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians but also many military personnel. Israel, in response, has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians in Gaza and destroyed nearly all of the enclave’s mosques, schools, hospitals, businesses and homes. Israeli soldiers have stolen money, jewelry, even Western clothing. After taking over villages and cities, Israeli armored vehicles have intentionally rolled over and crushed vehicles. The Israelis have gone out of their way to maximize destruction for the sole purpose of making it impossible for Christian and Muslim Palestinians to return to their former lives. That was their real goal from the beginning. At the same time, Israeli authorities have launched smaller-scale, mini-Gaza-type carnage in the West Bank, destroying homes, arresting people without charge and killing Palestinians there.
Clearly, the Israeli government sees this conflict as an opportunity to reset the disparity in which the Palestinian population has grown much more quickly than the Jewish population. It has declared this policy openly, urging Palestinians in Gaza to flee to Egypt and elsewhere so that it can establish Jewish-only settlements and confiscate Palestinian land. What made Israel feel so empowered that it could proceed with its military assault on Gaza without any restraint? Why did Israeli authorities unleash the maximum destructive power of their military against a predominantly civilian, nonmilitary target? The blame for this falls on the shoulders of the US, which has treated Israel as if it were its 51st state. Washington set aside morality and the law, allowing Israel to act without concern for international accountability. At the UN, the US defends Israel from sanctions. It even provides funding to support the carnage inflicted by Israel’s military, and the expansion of illegal settlements that Americans claim to question. Every year, Israel receives $3.8 billion from American taxpayers, almost like a utility tax paid to a foreign country.
Every year, Israel receives $3.8 billion from American taxpayers, almost like a utility tax paid to a foreign country. In response to the Hamas attack, Congress approved $32 billion in aid to cover the costs of the excessive disbursements for the bombs, bullets and missiles used to kill Gazans and destroy civil society.Despite all that America does for Israel, and the favoritism displayed by Washington in relation to Israeli policies, previous presidents would have urged restraint on Israel, leveraging the vast largesse the US provides.
The US has the right to scold the Israeli government for its actions, demand it exercises restraint, withhold support, and publicly express views that expose and criticize Israel’s violence. But the US does not have a strong president. It has one of the nation’s weakest and most ineffective presidents, whose international authority is undermined even further by the political polarization he vowed to heal but has instead fueled. America is a divided and weak nation. Biden is too weak to tell the bully leader of a foreign nation, and an ally at that, to restrain himself. Biden is a weak president whose image is further tarnished by his frequent cognitive lapses and constant memory lapses. This weak image of the president is aggravated by the weakness displayed by Biden’s presidential rival, Donald Trump, whose own lack of diplomatic finesse while president fueled the concerns of other nations.
Trump’s problem is less about degraded mental acuity and more about his personality flaws. He cannot stop himself from responding to petty issues with even greater displays of pettiness. This deflects from the substance of major policies, programs and issues he has tried to promote, making him appear more like a bully himself. Trump cannot handle criticism. Biden is cognitively ambivalent to it. American politics is polarized. There is nobody occupying the center ground who can offer reasoned, parental-like, commonsense leadership.
Many people believe this is one of the reasons Russia proceeded with its invasion of Ukraine: President Vladimir Putin simply was not worried about a strong response from the US. In the event, Biden’s response to Putin’s invasion was delayed and dulled. By the time Washington reacted, Russia was in too deep.
Five months after the Israeli carnage in Gaza began, Biden is only now shifting the official White House policy, calling in obscure language for recognition of a Palestinian state and urging Israel to exercise restraint its military response to the Oct. 7 attacks, as he responds to the worldwide anger over Israel’s inhumane onslaught in Gaza.
*Ray Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and columnist. He can be reached on his personal website at www.Hanania.com. X: @RayHanania

Can Turkiye and Egypt read the regional zeitgeist this time?
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/February 16, 2024
In November 2012, when Recep Tayyip Erdogan was prime minister of Turkiye, he visited Cairo with a large delegation from his government and the private sector. Erdogan delivered a speech at Cairo University in which he praised Egypt for recalling its ambassador to Israel in response to Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. Erdogan suggested that an Egyptian-Turkish alliance could foster peace and stability in the eastern Mediterranean, and that such a partnership could constrain Israel’s capacity for military action.
However, the course of Turkish-Egyptian relations took a different turn after 2013, as events significantly altered the trajectory of their relationship.
Erdogan, now president, visited Cairo this week for his first time in 12 years. His visit was significant in several ways. First, in the regional context, it took place amid the war in Gaza, which has particularly serious implications for Egypt.
Second, it represents the final link in Ankara’s efforts since 2021 to normalize relations with its regional neighbors. For years, Erdogan has demonstrated mastery in reading the regional zeitgeist, and rapprochement with Egypt was critical within the regional normalization context.
Egypt and Turkiye are grappling with similar economic challenges and regional obstacles, and therefore seek more cooperation than competition.
Third, Egypt and Turkiye are grappling with similar economic challenges and regional obstacles, and therefore seek more cooperation than competition.
Last, the visit reflects the changing perceptions at the leadership level in both countries. The persistent tensions in Turkish-Egyptian relations were largely influenced by the perceptions Erdogan and President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi held of each other. Since 2022, the two leaders have met three times on neutral ground in other countries, including Saudi Arabia in November last year, at the G20 summit in India in September, and in Qatar in November 2022 at a World Cup football match. Last year there was a significant turning point in relations, characterized by several developments, most notably the exchange of ambassadors and mutual official visits.
As a journalist, I closely monitored the deterioration of relations between the two countries and conducted interviews with the Turkish and Egyptian ambassadors of the time. Although the initial underlying reasons for the souring of relations have not completely disappeared, the regional landscape has evolved significantly, with interests shifting from the ideological to more pragmatic concerns. As the saying goes, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, and now, with Erdogan’s visit, another episode in Turkish-Egyptian relations has begun.
Both countries should now strive to maximize the benefits of this new era. It is evident it will be built around mutual benefits.
Both countries should now strive to maximize the benefits of this new era. It is evident it will be built around mutual benefits. Turkiye has certain expectations of Egypt and, likewise, Egypt has expectations of Turkiye. A Turkish-Egyptian reconciliation could dismantle some of the political sticking points on several fronts. The relationship between the nations has long been crucial for regional peace and stability. While it is often described as a competitive relationship, occasionally leading to political tensions or disruptions, it has the potential to evolve into cooperation.
First, deeper cooperation between Ankara and Cairo could facilitate Turkish-Syrian normalization efforts in the future if Egyptians can play a part in negotiations for a peaceful resolution of the Syrian conflict, just as they did in 1998 during the crisis between Turkiye and Syria. This could help ease Turkish concerns about refugee issues and secure security guarantees in northern Syria.
Second, Turkiye seeks Egypt’s support for its efforts to join the Mediterranean gas club and negotiate a permanent resolution to their differences. Additionally, Ankara wants to establish a maritime border agreement with Cairo.
Egypt, leveraging its alliances with Greece and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, could facilitate a process that grants Turkiye access to gas resources in the region, in return for which Turkiye can play a role in resolving issues between Egypt and Ethiopia, which enjoys good relations with Ankara.
Third, defense and trade seem to take precedence in the normalization process between Turkiye and Egypt, mirroring Ankara’s normalization efforts with Gulf states. Speaking a week before Erdogan’s visit to Cairo, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkiye would sell drones to Egypt, which was seen as a precursor to deeper military relations. Turkish exports of this kind have increasingly become a diplomatic instrument, which experts have dubbed “drone diplomacy.”
In addition, the presidents of both countries have set a goal of doubling the $10 billion volume of trade between their nations in the next few years. Some trade and defense agreements were signed in 2013 but frozen when relations became more tense. The revitalization of these deals should be a priority.
Also, the joint operations that two countries were conducting were frozen, so military cooperation also be at the top of the to-do lists.
Compared with the pace of Turkiye’s normalization efforts with other countries in the region, rapprochement with Egypt has been a slow, gradual process. Both parties opted to proceed cautiously, taking time to explore the potential benefits and address key concerns. This approach is likely to bring solid outcomes in the near future.
Some thorny issues remain on which they still disagree, such as Libya and interests in the Horn of Africa. We can be certain that neither Turkiye nor Egypt are likely to change their positions on Libya in particular, but they could compartmentalize their relationship based on the issues that they can work on together. For instance, they might be able to reach an understanding on ways to find a solution for the political deadlock in Libya that could safeguard the interests of both sides.
Over the past decade, a significant trust crisis emerged between Turkiye and Egypt. The success of this potential reset of relations largely hinges on the determination of their leaders to overcome the issues on which their interests diverge and focus on those in which their interests converge.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz

Trump’s rhetoric on defense spending is not all hot air
Luke Coffey/Arab News/February 16, 2024
Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina last week, Donald Trump claimed to have told an unidentified leading Euopean politician that he would encourage Russia to attack any member of NATO that did not meet the alliance’s target for spending on defense. Leaving aside for the moment the highly debatable issue of whether this supposed encounter ever took place, it is no secret that Trump isn’t NATO’s biggest fan. During his first term as US president, he routinely questioned its relevance in the 21st century. He has also been a regular and vocal critic of Europe’s lack of spending on defense.
European parsimony has been an issue for decades. Successive US presidents since Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950s have criticized Europeans for not spending enough on their armed forces, and adequate defense spending has been debated since the beginning of NATO. Article 3 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, the founding document of the alliance, states that members should, at a minimum, “maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack.” Seventy-five years later, not all members can say they are doing so, a continuing frustration for US policymakers.
In the 1990s, after the Cold War, NATO members drastically decreased both defense spending and the size of their armed forces. However, after the 9/11 attacks and the geopolitical events that followed, it was clear that the so-called “peace dividend” from the end of the Cold War was an illusion. Even so, NATO members failed to increase defense spending in any meaningful way.
The issue featured prominently at the NATO summit in Latvia in 2006, when alliance members agreed on a target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. As the years went by very few members took this target seriously. In 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea, only three NATO members met the benchmark: the US, the UK, and Greece. The annexation was a wake-up call. Members of the alliance recommitted to the 2 percent benchmark at a summit in Wales that year, this time with a deadline of 2024.
Even though some won’t admit it, many European policymakers know that Trump is right, even if his supposed threat to give Russia free rein took his rhetoric to new heights of recklessness.
Now that 2024 is upon us, how has NATO fared? The results have been mixed. The good news is that since 2014 there has been real-terms increase in defense spending across Europe and Canada of more than €600 billion. Collectively, European NATO members spent about 1.5 percent of their combined GDP on defense. In 2024 this figure is expected to hit 2 percent. On the downside, only 18 of the 31 members of the alliance are expected to meet the 2 percent target this year on an individual basis. While this is a significant improvement on 2014, more needs to be done.
But what? There is no silver bullet, but some steps can be taken to help the alliance. First, NATO should encourage its members to enshrine into law a commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. This would provide consistency and predictability in the future.
Additionally, NATO needs to get the finance ministers of its member states involved in the discussion too. Foreign ministers, defense ministers, and heads of state and government routinely meet throughout the year for NATO ministerial gatherings and summits. In most European parliamentary democracies, the finance minister is influential and holds the purse strings. Getting finance ministers more involved will help them understand why defense is so expensive and why it is important.
Even though some won’t admit it, many European policymakers know that Trump is right, even if his supposed threat to give Russia free rein took his rhetoric to new heights of recklessness. It also played into the European anxiety about what a second Trump administration would mean for US-EU relations, the future of NATO, and continued support for Ukraine. Many in the US are comcerned too: the US Senate has passed bipartisan legislation that would prevent any future president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO.
While the lack of defense spending in Europe is frustrating for US policymakers, the reality is that Europe is too important to the US economy for any American president to dismiss NATO as a lost cause. Europe is America’s largest source of foreign investment. Forty-five of the 50 states export more to Europe than they do to China, even Pacific-facing states such as California and Hawaii. NATO provides the security guarantee for Europe, which is America's largest export market. NATO creates the stability in Europe that allows for economic prosperity across the continent. This benefits the US economy and, by extension, the American worker. The war against Ukraine threatens to undermine Europe’s stability. In this context, NATO is just as important for the US as it was during the Cold War.
Instead of disengaging with NATO, the next US president should build on its success and keep encouraging Europeans to spend more on defense. NATO has underpinned security in the North Atlantic region for 75 years. With the right policies and the correct levels of military investment, it will continue being the world’s premier security alliance for the next 75 years.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

Western Farmers: Fork in the Road
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 16/2024
In the past few weeks European farmers have taken to the streets of their capitals to advertise a rebellious mood that few expected to see.
Having enjoyed a comfortable life for decades, thanks to subsidies from their respective governments and the European Union’s Common agricultural Policy (CAP), they were not expected to invade the grand capitals together with their sheep, cows and tractors with a litany of woes. The question of food security was first raised after World War II as a top priority for Western European nations as they tried to rebuild their shattered economies.
At the time global shortage of food was still seen as a looming threat while large scale famines claimed millions of victims in the People’s Republic of China and several sub-Saharan African nations while Western European countries gradually dismantled the rationing systems set up during the war. Up to the 1960s the average European family spent almost 50 percent of its income on food, something that limited the market for manufactured goods and services. Reducing the cost of food became an imperative as rebuilt industries looked for growing markets.
The Western powers, led by the United States, launched a series of initiatives to create a global free market for manufactured goods while keeping their agricultural sector under protection. Coming into effect the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade launched what was to develop into the global free market for industrial goods. During the Cold War the concept of a “free market” provided the ideological core of capitalist democracies against the concept of “planned economies” championed by the Soviet Union.
Attempts at challenging the concept with slogans such as “the social market”, advocated by Federal Germanys Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the “non-capitalist road to economic development”, championed by the emerging Third World politicians failed to stop “free-marketers” from leading the world towards what became globalization. Needless to say, the concepts served the interests of the handful of nations with industries capable of competing in world markets. Until the late 1950s, for example, only five nations manufactured automobiles capable of attracting customers across the world. The same was true of domestic appliances and the bulk of textile industries. The principle of comparative advantage favored nations with an industrial infrastructure and culture.
As for financial and other services, the subject of the second rounds of GATT negotiations, again the US and a handful of Western European nations started with a huge advantage. However, since comparative advantage could come in many ways, it was inevitable that newcomers to the global market would find ways of securing at least a stool at the high table. In Japan, for example, the comparative advantage came through a massive campaign of copying Western products at a time that laws on intellectual property, copyright and brands were in their infancy, combined with a highly disciplined but relatively inexpensive work force.
A generation later China and, still later India, Brazil and Indonesia, along with other smaller “emerging nations”, used the advantage of cheaper labor and looser social regulations to enter the global market for manufactured goods.
As for financial services a galaxy of tax-havens appeared across the globe, denting the monopoly enjoyed by the US, Great Britain, France and Germany. Still later, Japan, with its economy growing in size, and China, having recovered Hong Kong and Macao, gate crashed the financial services club. All along agricultural remained a protected zone. That kept the richest potential markets closed to outside competition. Even when European farmers produced mountains of excess food, the European Union continued to give them subsidies and, later, to reduce production Thus for two generations it was profitable to be a gentleman farmer in Western Europe and North America. Then came a double whammy in the shape of extending globalization rules to agriculture on the one hand and applying the strictures of the new environmental religion. Globalization rules enabled many nations to use their comparative advantage in terms of climate, richness of soil, less expensive labor and variety of products to claim a growing chunk of the traditional Western markets. At the same time, Western farmers had to cope with the growing cost if environmental measures concocted by the“save-the-planet” lobby.
The result is that in many cases Western farmers cannot compete with cheaper imports from across the world. Helping them stay in the game through larger subsidies would mean either higher taxes or higher prices for food at a time it represents just over 12 percent of the average family’s current budget.
Declaring a moratorium on costly environmental measures would require a degree of courage that the current Western ruling elite cannot master in a system hijacked by pressure groups, shaky coalitions and the end-of-the-world prophets.
Abandoning the doctrine of cheap food is doubly problematic because of the current inflationary trend that seems unlikely to subside anytime soon.
European policymakers now face a truth that Aristotle saw over 2,000 years ago: every system is corrupted by exaggerating its basic principle! Thus, too much free market kills the free market and too much globalization encourages protection.
As farmers prepare to invade London, Paris, Brussels, Rome, Amsterdam, Madrid and Berlin with their cows, sheep, pigs and tractors, decision-makers are in panic mood offering concessions that would anger the environmental lobbies, the food importers and the big supermarket chains, not to mention customers, without squaring the circle. Regarded as an absolute “free market”, as even Adam Smith, the father of the concept of a capitalist market economy, noted two centuries ago, within a state or a group of states organized on shared principles and observing the same laws and rules.
In other words, the ideal “global free market” requires a world government, precisely what Eurocarats in Brussels dream of but lack the courage to openly advocate. The real world is divided into nation-states with frontiers, different cultures and legal systems, and resistance to the one-size-fits-all sought by ultra-globalists. Protesting European farmers demand a “level-playing field”, something that, if regarded as a perfect model, does not and cannot exist in every human transaction. The “win-win” concept peddled by ultra-globalists is a myth. What matters is that the sum-total of relations among nation-states does not favor some and hurt others in medium and long term. The scale of transformation that the EU demands in its “Farm to Fork” strategy is truly dramatic. It includes cutting fertilizers and pesticides use by 50 percent by 20230, doubling organic production, consigning 20 percent of the current farmland to wilderness and, in effect, pushing the percentage of farmers below three percent. Most polls show that most Europeans sympathize with their farmers. But will they continue doing so if the price is more expensive and less varied food and ditching part of the ecological dogma?

Iraq The Day After The United States’ Withdrawal
Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 16/2024
If, hypothetically, an American National Security Council meeting were to end with a high-ranking American spokesperson announcing that “earlier today, the last American soldier was evacuated from Iraq as part of the US withdrawal from the global coalition against terrorism. The president had decided to withdraw our forces following the US administration’s failure to come to an understanding with the Iraqi government that would allow for maintaining US bases in Iraq." If this hypothetical scenario were to actually happen, the so-called Iraqi resistance would have accomplished the "sacred" mission of their Jihad, a historic victory over the great satan. Those hoping to turn this hypothetical scenario into reality could be hoping to replicate what happened in Afghanistan. There, however, Washington knew that one faction represented the majority and had the organizational capacity to control the run of Afghanistan, irrespective of its ideology and its relationship with its neighbors and the international community. For Washington, the goal was to bring its soldiers back home safely and to put an end to the extortion of certain regional actors.
In Iraq, on the other hand, a US withdrawal - given the fact that no party could fill the vacuum it would create - directly threatens Iraq’s ability to endure as a single country. Indeed, all the components of the Iraqi political system have systematically sought to weaken the armed forces and hollow out their combat doctrine, diminishing their role in favor of nationalist or ideological auxiliary military forces.
Rife with sharp sectarian, national, and regional polarization, as well as intra-sectarian, intra-ethnic, and intra-regional splits, Iraq is brimming with a myriad of rival ideological factions that are armed to the teeth. Everyone (individuals, factions, sects, and national groups) will resort to violence under the pretext of self-defense, given their deep distrust of the other, whether near, or far, within or without the country’s borders. Indeed, 20 years into the emergence of the new regime, it has failed to build a national identity that unifies the country, and successive governments have failed to strengthen the state's standing. The largest component of the country bears responsibility for this.
Representing the largest component in the country, the Taliban has managed to administer its state, which has begun a process to monopolize the use of violence, and it swiftly eliminated the threat to its authority in the Panjshir Valley. However, the representatives of Iraq’s largest component, the armed Shiite Islamist factions running the country, are already divided among themselves. They are divided on what the country’s authority should look like and are prepared to use violence to monopolize the state's institutions and wealth. So far, Tehran has managed to keep them in check, under the pretext of maintaining balance with Washington, which could grant and withhold legitimacy at will.
In the event of a US withdrawal, not only would the legitimacy of those residing in the Green Zone fall, the Green Zone would itself become illegitimate and collapse. Everyone recognizes the risks of upending the equilibrium between Washington and Tehran, whereby the former can pull non-military leavers to squeeze the Iraqi government economically and punish it financially, while the latter can extort the US when it sees fit. Losing the capacity to extort the US would leave Iran sinking in the quicksand of Iraq alone and without anyone to work out its lethal devilish details with.
It is not far-fetched to think that, once the pretext of resistance becomes a thing of the past, these forces would manage their conflicts over monopolizing what remains of the state through violence; the same is true for how they would wage their power struggles in their strongholds, namely the central and southern regions. Moreover, the removal of this pretext raises the specter of conflicts with the Sunnis and Kurds. The political, regional, ideological, and tribal contradictions of Iraq would fuel a battle to settle scores among its various components, especially with the broad availability of arms to Iraqi partisan and tribal groups, the absence or neglect of the state and its security and military institutions, and the number of powerful factions waiting for the right moment to pounce on their rivals and exploit their patron's reduced capacity to contain things.
With or without the American withdrawal, the contradictions of the forces within the ruling Coordination Framework have risen to the surface. As soon as the idea of withdrawal was raised, leading Jihadists and resistance figures hesitated to press forward, raising doubts about this bloc’s capacity to remain united in the near term. Meanwhile, the State Administration Coalition has lost its raison d’etre after the Coordination Framework forces decided to sideline the strongest Sunni representative and consistently threatened Erbil... Much remains to be seen.